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Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  2. Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science.

    PubMed

    Martin, Tara G; Burgman, Mark A; Fidler, Fiona; Kuhnert, Petra M; Low-Choy, Samantha; McBride, Marissa; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-02-01

    Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge. PMID:22280323

  3. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... structured format. The goal of ExpertNet is to enable government officials to search for and communicate with... Government Initiative and GSA and located at http://expertnet.wikispaces.com (the ``Wiki''). In addition...://expertnet.wikispaces.com or received via e-mail by January 7, 2011. Comments submitted in response to...

  4. Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: A practical guide

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M. )

    1990-01-01

    In this book we describe how to elicit and analyze expert judgment. Expert judgment is defined here to include both the experts' answers to technical questions and their mental processes in reaching an answer. It refers specifically to data that are obtained in a deliberate, structured manner that makes use of the body of research on human cognition and communication. Our aim is to provide a guide for lay persons in expert judgment. These persons may be from physical and engineering sciences, mathematics and statistics, business, or the military. We provide background on the uses of expert judgment and on the processes by which humans solve problems, including those that lead to bias. Detailed guidance is offered on how to elicit expert judgment ranging from selecting the questions to be posed of the experts to selecting and motivating the experts to setting up for and conducting the elicitation. Analysis procedures are introduced and guidance is given on how to understand the data base structure, detect bias and correlation, form models, and aggregate the expert judgments.

  5. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  6. Eliciting spatial statistics from geological experts using genetic algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-07-01

    A new method to obtain the statistics of a geostatistical model is introduced. The method elicits the statistical information from a geological expert directly, by iteratively updating a population of vectors of statistics, based on the expert's subjective opinion of the corresponding geological simulations. Thus, it does not require the expert to have knowledge of the mathematical and statistical details of the model. The process uses a genetic algorithm to generate new vectors. We demonstrate the methodology for a particular geostatistical model used to model rock pore-space, which simulates the spatial distribution of matrix and pores over a 2-D grid, using multipoint statistics specified by conditional probabilities. Experts were asked to use the algorithm to estimate the statistics of a given target pore-space image with known statistics; thus, their numerical rates of convergence could be calculated. Convergence was measured for all experts, showing that the algorithm can be used to find appropriate probabilities given the expert's subjective input. However, considerable and apparently irreducible residual misfit was found between the true statistics and the estimates of statistics obtained by the experts, with the root-mean-square error on the conditional probabilities typically >0.1. This is interpreted as the limit of the experts' abilities to distinguish between realizations of different spatial statistics using the algorithm. More accurate discrimination is therefore likely to require complementary elicitation techniques or sources of information independent of expert opinion.

  7. Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

    PubMed

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C; Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty. PMID:26610972

  8. Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Gosling, John Paul

    2013-02-01

    The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts' knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.

  9. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert

  10. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  11. Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Westphal, Margit; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Krewski, Daniel; Cashman, Neil

    2016-01-01

    A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available. PMID:27556566

  12. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  13. Use of expert judgment elicitation to estimate seismic vulnerability of selected building types

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.S.; Aspinall, W.; Perkins, D.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.A.

    2012-01-01

    Pooling engineering input on earthquake building vulnerability through an expert judgment elicitation process requires careful deliberation. This article provides an overview of expert judgment procedures including the Delphi approach and the Cooke performance-based method to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a building category.

  14. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite

  15. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  16. PROBES: a framework for probability elicitation from experts.

    PubMed Central

    Lau, A. H.; Leong, T. Y.

    1999-01-01

    A decision analytic model represents uncertainties as probability distributions. These distributions are hard to assess especially for large and dynamic models. We propose an integrated framework that facilitates elicitation of the relevant probability distributions for dynamic decision models from the domain experts. The experts usually use some judgmental heuristics to aid probability assessments; the resulting distributions may be proned to cognitive biases. Our framework aims to minimize the effects of these biases and to improve the quality of decisions made. We have implemented a prototype system of the framework and evaluated its effectiveness via a case study in the follow-up management of colorectal cancer patients after curative surgery. Preliminary results demonstrate the practical promise of the framework. Images Figure 4 PMID:10566369

  17. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of

  18. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of

  19. Using expert elicitation to prioritize resource allocation for risk identification for nanosilver.

    PubMed

    Fauss, Emma; Gorman, Michael E; Swami, Nathan

    2009-01-01

    This article introduces a method to identify risks through expert elicitation, using silver nanotechnology as a case study. Unique features of the method include supplying experts with a list of silver nanotechnology products, and conducting the elicitation in an extended interview format that captures the experts' reasoning. The end result is a series of graphical representations of expert thinking from which high-risk scenarios and knowledge gaps can be reliably inferred. This methodology, combined with other approaches to expert elicitation, can help identify knowledge and oversight gaps, and can be used as part of an adaptive management strategy. PMID:20122116

  20. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

  1. Systematic review of expert elicitation methods as a tool for source attribution of enteric illness.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-05-01

    Expert elicitation is a useful tool to explore sources of uncertainty and to answer questions where data are expensive or difficult to collect. It has been used across a variety of disciplines and represents an important method for estimating source attribution for enteric illness. A systematic review was undertaken to explore published expert elicitation studies, identify key considerations, and to make recommendations for designing an expert elicitation in the context of enteric illness source attribution. Fifty-nine studies were reviewed. Five key themes were identified: the expert panel including composition and recruitment; the pre-elicitation material, which clarifies the research question and provides training in uncertainty and probability; the choice of elicitation tool and method (e.g., questionnaires, surveys, and interviews); research design; and analysis of elicited data. Careful consideration of these themes is critical in designing and implementing an expert elicitation in order to reduce bias and produce the best possible results. While there are various epidemiological and microbiological methods available to explore source attribution of enteric illness, expert elicitation provides an opportunity to identify gaps in our understanding and where such studies are not feasible or available, represents the only possible method for synthesizing knowledge about transmission. PMID:25826450

  2. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  3. The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Díaz Anadón, Laura; Nemet, Gregory; Verdolini, Elena

    2013-09-01

    Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts’ implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts’ cost expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but the uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts’ median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts are less confident about costs than Europeans.

  4. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases.

    PubMed

    Aspinall, W P; Cooke, R M; Havelaar, A H; Hoffmann, S; Hald, T

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts' accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  5. Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

    SciTech Connect

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

    1996-11-01

    Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE`s license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE`s experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC`s geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs.

  6. EXPERT ELICITATION OF ACROSS-TECHNOLOGY CORRELATIONS FOR REACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

    SciTech Connect

    Brent Dixon; Various

    2014-06-01

    Calculations of the uncertainty in the Levelized Cost at Equilibrium (LCAE) of generating nuclear electricity typically assume that the costs of the system component, notably reactors, are uncorrelated. Partial cancellation of independent errors thus gives rise to unrealistically small cost uncertainties for fuel cycles that incorporate multiple reactor technologies. This summary describes an expert elicitation of correlations between overnight reactor construction costs. It also defines a method for combining the elicitations into a single, consistent correlation matrix suitable for use in Monte Carlo LCAE calculations. Both the elicitation and uncertainty propagation methods are demonstrated through a pilot study where cost correlations between eight reactor technologies were elicited from experts in the US DOE Fuel Cycle Research

  7. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  8. Signal Processing Expert Code (SPEC)

    SciTech Connect

    Ames, H.S.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe a prototype expert system called SPEC which was developed to demonstrate the utility of providing an intelligent interface for users of SIG, a general purpose signal processing code. The expert system is written in NIL, runs on a VAX 11/750 and consists of a backward chaining inference engine and an English-like parser. The inference engine uses knowledge encoded as rules about the formats of SIG commands and about how to perform frequency analyses using SIG. The system demonstrated that expert system can be used to control existing codes.

  9. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  10. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  11. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  12. Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation.

    PubMed

    2016-02-01

    We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps in data and research using structured, transparent methods. Such gaps are a significant challenge for global risk modeling. Experience with the WHO FERG expert elicitation shows that it is feasible to conduct an expert elicitation at a global scale, but that challenges do arise, including: defining an informative, yet feasible geographical structure for the elicitation; defining what constitutes expertise in a global setting; structuring international, multidisciplinary expert panels; and managing demands on experts' time in the elicitation. This article was written as part of a workshop, "Methods for Research Synthesis: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach" held at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis on October 13, 2013. PMID:26857339

  13. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  14. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  15. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  16. Food-specific attribution of selected gastrointestinal illnesses: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Davidson, Valerie J; Ravel, André; Nguyen, To N; Fazil, Aamir; Ruzante, Juliana M

    2011-09-01

    The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of food-specific attribution for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar survey conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. A snowball approach was used to identify food safety experts within Canada. Survey respondents provided background information as well as self-assessments of their expertise for each pathogen and the 12 food categories. Depending on the pathogen, food source attribution estimates were based on responses from between 10 and 35 experts. For each pathogen, experts divided their estimates of total foodborne illness across 12 food categories and they provided a best estimate for each category as well as 5th and 95th percentile limits for foods considered to be vehicles. Their responses were treated as triangular probability distributions, and linear aggregation was used to combine the opinions of each group of experts for each pathogen-food source group. Across the 108 pathogen-food groups, a majority of experts agreed on 30 sources and 48 nonsources for illness. The number of food groups considered to be pathogen sources by a majority of experts varied by pathogen from a low of one food source for Vibrio spp. (seafood) and C. parvum (produce) to a high of seven food sources for Salmonella spp. Beta distributions were fitted to the aggregated opinions and were reasonable representations for most of the pathogen-food group attributions. These results will be used to quantitatively assess the burden of foodborne illness in Canada as well as to analyze the uncertainty in our estimates. PMID:21561379

  17. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-08-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community.

  18. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  19. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. PMID:16506972

  20. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops.

    PubMed

    Krayer von Krauss, Martin P; Casman, Elizabeth A; Small, Mitchell J

    2004-12-01

    One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems. PMID:15660608

  1. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

  2. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  3. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  4. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M. ); Hora, S.C. )

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs.

  5. Approach, methods and results of an individual elicitation for the volcanism expert judgment panel

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, B.M.

    1996-06-01

    Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of future magnetic disruption of the Yucca Mountain site was completed as a participating member of the volcanism export judgment panel conducted by Geomatrix Consultants for the Department of Energy. The purpose of this summary is to describe the data assumptions, methods, and results of the elicitation and to contrast this assessment with past volcanism studies conducted for the Yucca Mountain Project.

  6. Statistical weld process monitoring with expert interpretation

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, G.E.; Barnett, R.J.; Strauss, A.M.; Thompson, F.M. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    A statistical weld process monitoring system is described. Using data of voltage, current, wire feed speed, gas flow rate, travel speed, and elapsed arc time collected while welding, the welding statistical process control (SPC) tool provides weld process quality control by implementing techniques of data trending analysis, tolerance analysis, and sequential analysis. For purposes of quality control, the control limits required for acceptance are specified in the weld procedure acceptance specifications. The control charts then provide quality assurance documentation for each weld. The statistical data trending analysis performed by the SPC program is not only valuable as a quality assurance monitoring and documentation system, it is also valuable in providing diagnostic assistance in troubleshooting equipment and material problems. Possible equipment/process problems are identified and matched with features of the SPC control charts. To aid in interpreting the voluminous statistical output generated by the SPC system, a large number of If-Then rules have been devised for providing computer-based expert advice for pinpointing problems based on out-of-limit variations of the control charts. The paper describes the SPC monitoring tool and the rule-based expert interpreter that has been developed for relating control chart trends to equipment/process problems.

  7. The NASA personnel security processing expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Silberberg, D.; Thomas, R.

    1996-12-31

    The NASA Personnel Security Processing Expert System is a tool that automatically determines the appropriate personnel background investigation required for a civil servant or contractor occupying a position of national security or public trust. It also instructs the personnel security processing staff to perform special checks based on a specific position. The system is implemented using a rule-based expert system and a World Wide Web interface. The system design separates the user interface, knowledge base and control structure to simplify system evolution. When one subsystem is modified, the others are impacted minimally. This system provides many benefits to the NASA Personnel Security Program. First, it frees the agency personnel security specialist from trouble-shooting and correcting all investigative problems. It also provides a learning tool for security processing staff at each installation. The system ensures that each installation security office is in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and policies. Finally, eliminating overlapping, inappropriate and duplicative efforts to process employees saves many resources. The system was deployed less than a year ago. To date, it saved $1.2 million of the $1.5 million agency-wide personnel security budget.

  8. Chlorpyrifos and neurodevelopmental effects: a literature review and expert elicitation on research and policy

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Organophosphate pesticides are widely used on food crops grown in the EU. While they have been banned from indoor use in the US for a decade due to adverse health effects, they are still the most prevalent pesticides in the EU, with Chlorpyrifos (CPF) being the most commonly applied. It has been suggested CPF affects neurodevelopment even at levels below toxicity guidelines. Younger individuals may be more susceptible than adults due to biological factors and exposure settings. Methods A literature review was undertaken to assess the evidence for CPF contributing to neurodevelopmental disorders in infants and children. Other literature was consulted in order to formulate a causal chain diagram showing the origins, uptake, and neurological effects of animal and human exposure to CPF. The causal chain diagram and a questionnaire were distributed online to scientific experts who had published in relevant areas of research. They were asked to assess their confidence levels on whether CPF does in fact contribute to adverse neurodevelopment outcomes and rate their confidence in the scientific evidence. A second questionnaire queried experts as to which kind of policy action they consider justifiable based on current knowledge. In a special workshop session at the EuroTox congress in Dresden in 2009 the results of both questionnaires were further discussed with invited experts, as a basis for a policy brief with main messages for policy makers and stakeholders. Results Most experts who responded to the first questionnaire felt that there was already enough evidence to support a ban on indoor uses of CPF in the EU. However, most felt additional research is still required in several areas. The responses from the first questionnaire were used to formulate the second questionnaire addressing the feasibility of government action. In turn, these expert participants were invited to attend a special session at the EuroTox congress in Dresden in 2009. Conclusions Some

  9. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from permafrost region soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert elicitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Jones, J.; Schuur, E. A.; Bowden, W. B.; Chapin, F. S., III; Epstein, H. E.; Flannigan, M.; Harms, T.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Mack, M. C.; Natali, S.; Rocha, A. V.; Tank, S. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Vonk, J.; Wickland, K.

    2013-12-01

    As the permafrost region warms, up to 288 Pg carbon (CO2 equivalent) may be released from soil by the end of the century, and up to 616 Pg by 2300. This soil carbon can be released to the atmosphere directly via mineralization or wildfire, or enter aquatic ecosystems as dissolved or particulate organic or inorganic carbon. Some models predict an increase in Arctic and boreal living biomass in response to extended growing season, enhanced nutrient cycling, and CO2 fertilization, but we have a poor understanding of how the production of new biomass will compare with loss of carbon from permafrost thaw. We administered surveys to permafrost region experts to assess current understanding of the magnitude and timing of biomass accumulation, hydrologic carbon flux, and wildfire carbon losses. Surveys addressed three time periods (present to 2040, 2100, and 2300) and four warming scenarios based on IPCC representative concentration pathways. Estimates of change in biomass and fire losses were provided individually for the boreal forest and arctic tundra. Experts estimated changes in carbon delivery to freshwater ecosystems as well as delivery to the ocean, including carbon release due to coastal erosion, fluxes infrequently captured in high-latitude models. Initial expert estimates indicated that while tundra biomass would increase substantially, total permafrost region biomass would decrease by the end of the century due to boreal forest drying and browning, followed by a modest increase by 2300 due to vegetation community shifts. Changes in aquatic systems could release an additional 2.7 Pg carbon by 2100 and 7.3 Pg by 2300. Modified wildfire regime could cause the release of an additional 13.6 Pg carbon by 2100 and 51.7 Pg by 2300. Current expert understanding therefore suggests that carbon gains in high-latitude biomass will be orders of magnitude smaller than carbon loss from permafrost soils and that hydrologic and wildfire pathways of carbon loss will likely

  10. Policy relevant Results from an Expert Elicitation on the Human Health Risks of Decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) and Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Aim Apply a recently developed expert elicitation procedure to evaluate the state of the current knowledge of the two brominated flame retardants (BFRs) most commonly used today; decabromo-diphenyl ether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and their potential impact on human health in order to support policy considerations. This expert elicitation was organized by the HENVINET (Health and Environment Network) Consortium. Method The HENVINET expert elicitation procedure that was used in the evaluations of decaBDE and HBCD is a rapid assessment tool aimed at highlighting areas of agreement and areas of disagreement on knowledge-related key issues for environment and health policy decision making. Results The outcome of the expert consultation on BFRs was concrete expert advice for policy makers with specific priorities for further action made clear for both stakeholders and policy makers. The experts were not in agreement whether or not the knowledge currently available on decaBDE or HBCD is sufficient to justify policy actions, but most experts considered that enough data already exists to support a ban or restriction on the use of these compounds. All experts agreed on the necessity of more research on the compounds. Priority issues for further research were, among others: • more studies on the extent of human exposure to the compounds. • more studies on the fate and concentration in the human body of the compounds. PMID:22759507

  11. ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

    PubMed

    van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

    2012-09-01

    Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time. PMID:22664671

  12. The application of expert systems to process control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Bevan P. F.

    1991-01-01

    An expert system is a computer software technology developed from artificial intelligence research. It may be used for intelligent manufacturing process control and, when properly designed, has the capability to imitate human behavior. An expert system's value is to assist a human in executing realtime process control decisions in a complex system. This article provides an introduction to the concepts of intelligent process control and includes a process control scenario applying an expert system as well as statistical and optimization technologies. A simple guide of how to get started and a description of expert system tools are also presented.

  13. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  14. EXPERT ELICITATION WHITE PAPER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA is frequently called upon to make decisions on complex environmental issues, and to make these decisions, analyses are required from a broad range of disciplines. In all of these analyses, uncertainty and variability exist in estimates of the values of key parameters and...

  15. Expert model process control of composite materials in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    An expert model for the control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using the PC PLUS expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol-crunching capability of LISP and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The Expert Model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  16. The digital storytelling process: A comparative analysis from various experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Hashiroh; Shiratuddin, Norshuhada

    2016-08-01

    Digital Storytelling (DST) is a method of delivering information to the audience. It combines narrative and digital media content infused with the multimedia elements. In order for the educators (i.e the designers) to create a compelling digital story, there are sets of processes introduced by experts. Nevertheless, the experts suggest varieties of processes to guide them; of which some are redundant. The main aim of this study is to propose a single guide process for the creation of DST. A comparative analysis is employed where ten DST models from various experts are analysed. The process can also be implemented in other multimedia materials that used the concept of DST.

  17. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  18. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  19. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  20. Expert systems for optimization of laser technology processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiorov, Vladimir S.; Sternin, M. Y.

    2002-04-01

    Many users of laser technological processes are trying to create data bases accumulating their experience in laser processing of materials. The data bases are useful tools to render help to technicians working with laser machines. But it is only the first step in utilization of intelligent computer programs. In this paper we present the results of the development of expert system (ES) to help technicians in the choice of best conditions for laser processing of materials. The ES has been created on the basis of practical knowledge of experts and experimental results collected to the data base. The set of parameters was developed for the description of laser technological processes. Each of the processes was characterized by the values of such parameters changing in some reasonable diapasons. Those parameters were divided into input and output groups. The input group of parameters included the main technical characteristics of the laser, the type of the material and the demands on the quality of laser processing products. The output group of parameters consisted of the set of laser processing conditions recommended by the expert system. Generally, the ES presents a computer model of the expert's decision making process. The steps of such a process are a new task analysis, search of closest past cases, evaluation of tasks similarity and so on. The expert system called MALS (Machine Learning Shell) is presented in this paper as an example of ES which could give consultations on the best choice of the laser cutting process.

  1. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

    1987-01-01

    The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

  2. Knowledge base for expert system process control/optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C. W.; Abrams, Frances L.

    An expert system based on the philosophy of qualitative process automation has been developed for the autonomous cure cycle development and control of the autoclave curing process. The system's knowledge base in the form of declarative rules is based on the qualitative understanding of the curing process. The knowledge base and examples of the resulting cure cycle are presented.

  3. Methods to elicit experts' beliefs over uncertain quantities: application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration.

    PubMed

    Soares, Marta O; Bojke, Laura; Dumville, Jo; Iglesias, Cynthia; Cullum, Nicky; Claxton, Karl

    2011-08-30

    We can use decision models to estimate cost effectiveness, quantify uncertainty regarding the adoption decision and provide estimates of the value of further research. In many cases, the existence of only limited data with which to populate a decision model can mean that a cost-effectiveness analysis either does not proceed or may misrepresent the degree of uncertainty associated with model inputs. An example is the case of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) used to treat severe pressure ulceration, for which the evidence base is limited and sparse. There is, however, substantial practical experience of using this treatment and its comparators. We can capture this knowledge quantitatively to inform a cost-effectiveness model by eliciting beliefs from experts. This paper describes the design and conduct of an elicitation exercise to generate estimates of multiple uncertain model inputs and validate analytical assumptions for a decision model on the use of NPWT. In designing the exercise, the primary focus was the use of elicitation to inform decision models (multistate models), where representations of uncertain beliefs need to be probabilistically coherent. This paper demonstrates that it is feasible to collect formally elicited evidence to inform decision models. PMID:21748773

  4. Formalizing expert judgment in the environmental impact assessment process

    SciTech Connect

    Lein, J.K. . Dept. of Geography)

    1993-01-01

    As the debate surrounding the adequacy of the environmental impact statement (EIS) process and its intended role in environmental decision-making continues, there is growing concern that the present guidelines used to develop the EIS may not be adequate given the methodological and theoretical advances that have been introduced in environmental impact assessment (EIA) since the last Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) revisions. This concern is particularly evident when the issues surrounding the application of expert judgment and the role it plays in impact prediction are considered. Presently, there is no standardized procedure for applying expert judgment in EIA, and although the use of expert judgment has long been acknowledged in the impact assessment literature, methodologies that draw upon expert judgment have not attempted to render those judgmental aspects of an assessment visible to decision-makers. This paper presents an approach for formalizing expert judgment using the experience gained from the development of expert systems designed to assist the EIA process. Following a critical examination of judgmental approaches to impact prediction, this paper illustrates how through the application of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy logic, substantive improvements in EIA can be made, moving the practice of impact assessment more closely into alignment with the goals expressed in Section 102(2)(a) and Section 102(2)(b) of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969.

  5. Expert elicitation as a means to attribute 28 enteric pathogens to foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, and person-to-person transmission routes in Canada.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-04-01

    Enteric illness contributes to a significant burden of illness in Canada and globally. Understanding its sources is a critical step in identifying and preventing health risks. Expert elicitation is a powerful tool, used previously, to obtain information about enteric illness source attribution where information is difficult or expensive to obtain. Thirty-one experts estimated transmission of 28 pathogens via major transmission routes (foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, person-to-person, and other) at the point of consumption. The elicitation consisted of a (snowball) recruitment phase; administration of a pre-survey to collect background information, an introductory webinar, an elicitation survey, a 1-day discussion, survey readministration, and a feedback exercise, and surveys were administered online. Experts were prompted to quantify changes in contamination at the point of entry into the kitchen versus point of consumption. Estimates were combined via triangular probability distributions, and medians and 90% credible-interval estimates were produced. Transmission was attributed primarily to food for Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Trichinella spp., all three Vibrio spp. categories explored, and Yersinia enterocolitica. Multisource pathogens (e.g., transmitted commonly through both water and food) such as Campylobacter spp., four Escherichia coli categories, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were also estimated as mostly foodborne. Water was the primary pathway for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp., and person-to-person transmission dominated for six enteric viruses and Shigella spp. Consideration of the point of attribution highlighted the importance of food handling and cross-contamination in the transmission pathway. This study provides source attribution estimates of enteric illness for Canada, considering all possible transmission routes. Further research is necessary to improve our

  6. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts

  7. Process Diagnosis Expert System Using First Principles and Functional Component

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-11-24

    PRODIAG is an expert system that performs online diagnosis of faulty components in thermal hydraulic processes. Given measurements of temperatures, pressure, flows, and liquid levels, PRODIAG identifies the possible faulty component candidates at the process level. It is a stand alone code, but can be used in conjunction with a component level program to distinguish among the possible faulty component candidates.

  8. A generic expert system for materials processing in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Kristinn; Cook, George E.; Strauss, Alvin M.

    1988-01-01

    A generic expert system is described for inspecting materials processed in space (MPS). The system may be applied, with the appropriate knowledge base, to any of the nondestructive testing methods (NDT) which are appropriate to MPS. Regardless of the method being used, the inspection process consists of three tasks: (1) signal or image processing of the NDT output and feature extraction, (2) interpretation of features in terms of MPS discontinuities, and (3) evaluation of the quality of the MPS based upon industry standards. In contrast to rule based systems, this system represents its knowledge as multidimensional vectors and appropriate functions on them. Currently, the expert system accepts manual input of observed features. Once the expert system has been tested and compared to human expert inspectors, a vision front-end will be developed to complete automation of the expert MPS inspection system, based on visual discontuities. Then the data base will be extended to include a variety of other NDT methods. In addition to functional performance, ease of use was established through menu window driven input as well as flexibility in building, using and modifying data bases for different applications.

  9. Ranking the disease burden of 14 pathogens in food sources in the United States using attribution data from outbreak investigations and expert elicitation.

    PubMed

    Batz, Michael B; Hoffmann, Sandra; Morris, J Glenn

    2012-07-01

    Understanding the relative public health impact of major microbiological hazards across the food supply is critical for a risk-based national food safety system. This study was conducted to estimate the U.S. health burden of 14 major pathogens in 12 broad categories of food and to then rank the resulting 168 pathogen-food combinations. These pathogens examined were Campylobacter, Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, Salmonella enterica, Toxoplasma gondii, and all other FoodNet pathogens. The health burden associated with each pathogen was measured using new estimates of the cost of illness and loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from acute and chronic illness and mortality. A new method for attributing illness to foods was developed that relies on both outbreak data and expert elicitation. This method assumes that empirical data are generally preferable to expert judgment; thus, outbreak data were used for attribution except where evidence suggests that these data are considered not representative of food attribution. Based on evaluation of outbreak data, expert elicitation, and published scientific literature, outbreak-based attribution estimates for Campylobacter, Toxoplasma, Cryptosporidium, and Yersinia were determined not representative; therefore, expert-based attribution were included for these four pathogens. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of attribution data assumptions on rankings. Disease burden was concentrated among a relatively small number of pathogen-food combinations. The top 10 pairs were responsible for losses of over $8 billion and 36,000 QALYs, or more than 50 % of the total across all pairs. Across all 14 pathogens, poultry, pork, produce, and complex foods were responsible for nearly 60 % of the total cost of illness and loss of QALYs. PMID:22980012

  10. Optimization of low gravity materials processing experiments using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Choudry, Amar

    1988-01-01

    The use of an expert system for the control of materials processing experiments in a facility such as the Space Station provides a number of attractive features for insuring that certain critical process parameters can be used to optimize the productivity of the materials processing experiments. The proposed approach to implementation of an expert system utilizes a knowledge base of desired process characteristics which will provide the desired results. The knowledge base for each experiment will be created in conjunction with the scientific investigator in charge of the experiment. Improvements to the knowledge base will be expanded to include self learning sessions in ground based experiments in order to teach the expert system how to respond to perturbations in the process and update the knowledge base on what process change should be implemented in order to reach the desired end product. Design considerations using an on-line real time expert system such as PICON is studied. The types of experiments evaluated include several types of solidification experiments which will be performed on the Space Station.

  11. Toward the integration of expert knowledge and instrumental data to control food processes: application to Camembert-type cheese ripening.

    PubMed

    Sicard, M; Perrot, N; Leclercq-Perlat, M-N; Baudrit, C; Corrieu, G

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the cheese ripening process remains a challenge because of its complexity. We still lack the knowledge necessary to understand the interactions that take place at different levels of scale during the process. However, information may be gathered from expert knowledge. Combining this expertise with knowledge extracted from experimental databases may allow a better understanding of the entire ripening process. The aim of this study was to elicit expert knowledge and to check its validity to assess the evolution of organoleptic quality during a dynamic food process: Camembert cheese ripening. Experiments on a pilot scale were carried out at different temperatures and relative humidities to obtain contrasting ripening kinetics. During these experiments, macroscopic evolution was evaluated from an expert's point of view and instrumental measurements were carried out to simultaneously monitor microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical kinetics. A correlation of 76% was established between the microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data and the sensory phases measured according to expert knowledge, highlighting the validity of the experts' measurements. In the future, it is hoped that this expert knowledge may be integrated into food process models to build better decision-aid systems that will make it possible to preserve organoleptic qualities by linking them to other phenomena at the microscopic level. PMID:21183011

  12. An expert systems application to space base data processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babb, Stephen M.

    1988-01-01

    The advent of space vehicles with their increased data requirements are reflected in the complexity of future telemetry systems. Space based operations with its immense operating costs will shift the burden of data processing and routine analysis from the space station to the Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A research and development project is described which addresses the real time onboard data processing tasks associated with a space based vehicle, specifically focusing on an implementation of an expert system.

  13. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  14. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  15. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  16. Neural processes distinguishing elite from expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Callan, Daniel E; Naito, Eiichi

    2014-12-01

    This commentary builds on a companion article in which Kim et al compare brain activation in elite, expert, and novice archers during a simulated target aiming task (Kim et al. 2014. Cogn Behav Neurol. 27:173-182). With the archery study as our starting point, we address 4 neural processes that may be responsible in general for elite athletes' superior performance over experts and novices: neural efficiency, cortical expansion, specialized processes, and internal models. In Kim et al's study, the elite archers' brains showed more activity in the supplementary motor area and the cerebellum than those of the novices and experts, and showed minimal widespread activity, especially in frontal areas involved with executive control. Kim et al's results are consistent with the idea of specialized neural processes that help coordinate motor planning and control. As athletes become more skilled, these processes may mediate the reduction in widespread activity in regions mapping executive control, and may produce a shift toward more automated processing. Kim et al's finding that activity in the cerebellum rose with increasing skill is consistent both with expansion of the finger representational area in the cerebellum and with internal models that simulate how archers manipulate the bow and arrow when aiming. Kim et al prepare the way for testing of neuromodulation techniques to improve athletic performance, refine highly technical job skills, and rehabilitate patients. PMID:25539037

  17. Prospective Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Thought Processes on a Model Eliciting Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eraslan, Ali

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical model and modeling are one of the topics that have been intensively discussed in recent years. The purpose of this study is to examine prospective elementary mathematics teachers' thought processes on a model eliciting activity and reveal difficulties or blockages in the processes. The study includes forty-five seniors taking the…

  18. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  19. Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

  20. Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

    A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

  1. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  2. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

  3. Differential ERP Signatures Elicited by Semantic and Syntactic Processing in Scenes

    PubMed Central

    Võ, Melissa L.-H.; Wolfe, Jeremy M.

    2016-01-01

    In sentence processing, semantic and syntactic violations elicit differential brain responses in ERP recordings: An N400 signals semantic violations, while a P600 marks inconsistent syntactic structure. Does the brain register similar distinctions in scene perception? Participants viewed “semantic inconsistencies” created by presenting objects that were incongruent with a scene's meaning and “syntactic inconsistencies” in which an object violated structural rules. We found a clear dissociation between semantic and syntactic processing: Semantic inconsistencies produced negative deflections in the N300/N400 time window, while syntactic inconsistencies elicited a late positivity resembling the P600 found for syntax manipulations in sentence processing. Interestingly, extreme syntax violations such as a floating toast, showed an initial increase in attentional deployment, but failed to produce a P600 effect. We therefore conclude that different neural populations are active during semantic and syntactic processing in scenes and that impossible object placements may be processed categorically different from syntactically inconsistent placements. PMID:23842954

  4. An expert system for processing uncorrelated satellite tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecker, Michael A.

    1992-12-01

    Through an array of ground based radar sights and optical cameras, the United States military tracks objects in near and far Earth orbit. The sensors provide epoch and ephemeris information that is used to update a database of known objects. While a majority of the sensor observations are matched to their corresponding satellites, a small percentage are beyond the capabilities of current software and cannot be correlated. These uncorrelated targets, UCT's, must be manually fitted by orbital analysts in a labor intensive process. As an alternative to this human intervention, the use of artificial intelligence techniques to augment the present computer code was explored. Specifically, an expert system for processing UCT's at the Naval Space Surveillance Command was developed. Rules were generated through traditional knowledge engineering methods and by a novel application of machine learning. The initial results are very good with the operational portions of the system matching the performance of the experts with an accuracy of 99%. Although not yet complete, the code developed in this research definitely shows the potential of using artificial intelligence to process UCT'S.

  5. Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

  6. Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paris, Cecile L.

    1993-01-01

    Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

  7. An expert system for processing sequence homology data.

    PubMed

    Sonnhammer, E L; Durbin, R

    1994-01-01

    When confronted with the task of finding homology to large numbers of sequences, database searching tools such as Blast and Fasta generate prohibitively large amounts of information. An automatic way of making most of the decisions a trained sequence analyst would make was developed by means of a rule-based expert system combined with an algorithm to avoid non-informative biased residue composition matches. The results found relevant by the system are presented in a very concise and clear way, so that the homology can be assessed with minimum effort. The expert system, HSPcrunch, was implemented to process the output to the programs in the BLAST suite. HSPcrunch embodies rules on detecting distant similarities when pairs of weak matches are consistent with a larger gapped alignment, i.e. when Blast has broken a longer gapped alignment up into smaller ungapped ones. This way, more distant similarities can be detected with no or little side-effects of more spurious matches. The rules for how small the gaps must be to be considered significant have been derived empirically. Currently a set of rules are used that operate on two different scoring levels, one for very weak matches that have very small gaps and one for medium weak matches that have slightly larger gaps. This set of rules proved to be robust for most cases and gives high fidelity separation between real homologies and spurious matches. One of the most important rules for reducing the amount of output is to limit the number of overlapping matches to the same region of the query sequence.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:7584413

  8. An expert system for processing sequence homology data

    SciTech Connect

    Sonnhammer, E.L.L.; Durbin, R.

    1994-12-31

    When confronted with the task of finding homology to large numbers of sequences, database searching tools such as Blast and Fasta generate prohibitively large amounts of information. An automatic way of making most of the decisions a trained sequence analyst would make was developed by means of a rule-based expert system combined with an algorithm to avoid non-informative biased residue composition matches. The results found relevant by the system are presented in a very concise and clear way, so that the homology can be assessed with minimum effort. The expert system, HSPcrunch, was implemented to process the output of the programs in the BLAST suite. HSPcrunch embodies rules on detecting distant similarities when pairs of weak matches are consistent with a larger gaped alignment, i.e. when Blast has broken a longer gaped alignment up into smaller ungaped ones. This way, more distant similarities can be detected with no or little side-effects of more spurious matches. The rules for how small the gaps must be to be considered significant have been derived empirically. Currently a set of rules are used that operate on two different scoring levels, one for very weak matches that have very small gaps and one for medium weak matches that have slightly larger gaps. This set of rules proved to be robust for most cases and gives high fidelity separation between real homologies and spurious matches, One of the most important rules for reducing the amount of output is to limit the number of overlapping matches to the same region of the query sequence. This way, a region with many high-scoring matches will not dominate the output and hide weaker but relevant matches to other regions. This is particularly valuable for multi-domain queries.

  9. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

  10. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  11. Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

    1991-03-01

    To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

  12. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, Θ, for which the true value, θ*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(θ) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about Θ) and d(θ), a zero-one indicator function of the observation θ*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation θ*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where Θ is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(θ). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(θ) by g(θ), the distribution that model the randomness of Θ, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(θ) to g(θ). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  13. Counter-regulating on the Internet: Threat elicits preferential processing of positive information.

    PubMed

    Greving, Hannah; Sassenberg, Kai; Fetterman, Adam

    2015-09-01

    The Internet is a central source of information. It is increasingly used for information search in self-relevant domains (e.g., health). Self-relevant topics are also associated with specific emotions and motivational states. For example, individuals may fear serious illness and feel threatened. Thus far, the impact of threat has received little attention in Internet-based research. The current studies investigated how threat influences Internet search. Threat is known to elicit the preferential processing of positive information. The self-directed nature of Internet search should particularly provide opportunities for such processing behavior. We predicted that during Internet search, more positive information would be processed (i.e., allocated more attention to) and more positive knowledge would be acquired under threat than in a control condition. Three experiments supported this prediction: Under threat, attention is directed more to positive web pages (Study 1) and positive links (Study 2), and more positive information is acquired (Studies 1 and 3) than in a control condition. Notably, the effect on knowledge acquisition was mediated by the effect on attention allocation during an actual Internet search (Study 1). Thus, Internet search under threat leads to selective processing of positive information and dampens threatened individuals' negative affect. PMID:26098968

  14. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  15. RFID-Based Critical Path Expert System for Agility Manufacture Process Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Haifang; Xiang, Yuli

    This paper presents a critical path expert system for the agility manufacture process management based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. The paper explores that the agility manufacture processes can be visible and controllable with RFID. The critical paths or activities can be easily found out and tracked by the RFID tracing technology. And the expert system can optimize the bottle neck of the task process of the agility management with the critical path adjusting and reforming method. Finally, the paper gives a simple application example of the system to discuss how to adjust the critical paths and how to make the process more agility and flexibility with the critical path expert system. With an RFID-based critical path expert system, the agility manufacture process management will be more effective and efficient.

  16. Identification and evaluation of scientific uncertainties related to fish and aquatic resources in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon - summary and interpretation of an expert-elicitation questionnaire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of

  17. Content validation using an expert panel: assessment process for assistive technology adopted by farmers with disabilities.

    PubMed

    Mathew, S N; Field, W E; French, B F

    2011-07-01

    This article reports the use of an expert panel to perform content validation of an experimental assessment process for the safety of assistive technology (AT) adopted by farmers with disabilities. The validation process was conducted by a panel of six experts experienced in the subject matter, i.e., design, use, and assessment of AT for farmers with disabilities. The exercise included an evaluation session and two focus group sessions. The evaluation session consisted of using the assessment process under consideration by the panel to evaluate a set of nine ATs fabricated by a farmer on his farm site. The expert panel also participated in the focus group sessions conducted immediately before and after the evaluation session. The resulting data were analyzed using discursive analysis, and the results were incorporated into the final assessment process. The method and the results are presented with recommendations for the use of expert panels in research projects and validation of assessment tools. PMID:21919319

  18. Expert model for intelligent control of composite materials processing in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    1992-02-01

    An expert model for the in-process control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using Personal Consultant Plus (PC Plus) expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol crunching capability of the LISP computer language and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The expert model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. The feasibility of using models to determine the process state when sensors are not available or are malfunctioning was demonstrated. Hercules 3501-6/AS4 8-in x 8-in panels were processed in the heated-platens press, using both the standard cure cycle and the expert model control system. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  19. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  20. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  1. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices

    PubMed Central

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  2. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C.; Singer, Ralph M.

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  3. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  4. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  5. User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. Methods AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Results Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. Conclusions AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department. PMID:23289426

  6. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and

  7. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  8. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

  9. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-07-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications.

  10. Eliciting Expertise.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, William deB.

    1989-01-01

    Recommends using expert systems on personal computers in the classroom to teach international relations. Claims these systems can reach conclusions as reliable as those of a human expert. Explains that the system compels students to draw conclusions based on clarity of thought because they rely on a body of logically consistent rules. (NL)

  11. XCUT: A rule-based expert system for the automated process planning of machined parts

    SciTech Connect

    Brooks, S.L.; Hummel, K.E.; Wolf, M.L.

    1987-06-01

    Automated process planning is becoming a popular research and development topic in engineering and applied artificial intelligence. It is generally defined as the automatic planning of the manufacturing procedures for producing a part from a CAD based product definition. An automated process planning system, XCUT, is currently being developed using rule-based expert system techniques. XCUT will generate process plans for the production of machined piece-parts, given a geometric description of a part's features. The system currently is focused on operation planning for prismatic parts on multi-axis CNC milling machines. To date, moderately complex 2-1/2D prismatic parts have successfully been planned for with approximately 300 rules in the knowledge base. This paper will describe the XCUT system, system architecture, knowledge representation, plan development sequence, and issues in applying expert system technology to automated process planning. 16 refs.

  12. Applying an integrated neuro-expert system model in a real-time alarm processing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khosla, Rajiv; Dillon, Tharam S.

    1993-03-01

    In this paper we propose an integrated model which is derived from the combination of a generic neuro-expert system model, an object model, and unix operating system process (UOSP) model. This integrated model reflects the strengths of both artificial neural nets (ANNs) and expert systems (ESs). A formalism of ES object, ANN object, UOSP object, and problem domain object is used for developing a set of generic data structures and methods. These generic data structures and methods help us to build heterogeneous ES-ANN objects with uniform communication interface. The integrated model is applied in a real-time alarm processing system for a non-trivial terminal power station. It is shown how features like hierarchical/distributed ES/ANN objects, inter process communication, and fast concurrent execution help to cope with real-time system constraints like, continuity, data variability, and fast response time.

  13. Chitosan-Elicited Callose Synthesis in Soybean Cells as a Ca2+-Dependent Process 1

    PubMed Central

    Köhle, Harald; Jeblick, Wolfgang; Poten, Frauke; Blaschek, Wolfgang; Kauss, Heinrich

    1985-01-01

    A new method for the rapid and quantitative fluorometric determination of callose is described. In suspension-cultured cells of Glycine max, synthesis of callose starts within 20 minutes of treatment with chitosan and parallels over hours the accumulation of 1,3-linked glucose in the wall. Poly-l-lysine also elicits callose synthesis. The effect of chitosan is enhanced by Polymyxin B at low concentrations; this antibiotic alone at higher concentrations can also induce callose synthesis. Callose synthesis is immediately stopped when external Ca2+ is bound by ethylene glycolbis-(2-aminoethyl ether)-N,N′-tetraacetate or cation exchange beads, and partly recovers upon restoration of 15 micromolar Ca2+. Callose synthesis is observed only when membrane perturbation causing electrolyte leakage from the cells is induced by one of the above treatments. It does not appear to be due to de novo synthesis or proteolytic activation of 1,3-β-d-glucan synthase. It is concluded that this Ca2+-dependent enzyme is directly activated by the influx of Ca2+ occurring concomitantly with the leakage of cell constituents. This suggestion is also discussed in conjunction with the chitosan-induced synthesis of phytoalexin in the same cells. Images Fig. 5 PMID:16664095

  14. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  15. Human motion tracking by temporal-spatial local gaussian process experts.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xu; Fu, Yun; Liu, Yuncai

    2011-04-01

    Human pose estimation via motion tracking systems can be considered as a regression problem within a discriminative framework. It is always a challenging task to model the mapping from observation space to state space because of the high-dimensional characteristic in the multimodal conditional distribution. In order to build the mapping, existing techniques usually involve a large set of training samples in the learning process which are limited in their capability to deal with multimodality. We propose, in this work, a novel online sparse Gaussian Process (GP) regression model to recover 3-D human motion in monocular videos. Particularly, we investigate the fact that for a given test input, its output is mainly determined by the training samples potentially residing in its local neighborhood and defined in the unified input-output space. This leads to a local mixture GP experts system composed of different local GP experts, each of which dominates a mapping behavior with the specific covariance function adapting to a local region. To handle the multimodality, we combine both temporal and spatial information therefore to obtain two categories of local experts. The temporal and spatial experts are integrated into a seamless hybrid system, which is automatically self-initialized and robust for visual tracking of nonlinear human motion. Learning and inference are extremely efficient as all the local experts are defined online within very small neighborhoods. Extensive experiments on two real-world databases, HumanEva and PEAR, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model, which significantly improve the performance of existing models. PMID:20851794

  16. The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

    PubMed Central

    Castro, Alexander Garcia; Rocca-Serra, Philippe; Stevens, Robert; Taylor, Chris; Nashar, Karim; Ragan, Mark A; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

    2006-01-01

    Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process. PMID:16725019

  17. An expert system for ensuring the reliability of the technological process of cold sheet metal forming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kashapova, L. R.; Pankratov, D. L.; Utyaganov, P. P.

    2016-06-01

    In order to exclude periodic defects in the parts manufacturing obtained by cold sheet metal forming a method of automated estimation of technological process reliability was developed. The technique is based on the analysis of reliability factors: detail construction, material, mechanical and physical requirements; hardware settings, tool characteristics, etc. In the work the expert system is presented based on a statistical accumulation of the knowledge of the operator (technologist) and decisions of control algorithms.

  18. Early neuronal responses in right limbic structures mediate harmony incongruity processing in musical experts.

    PubMed

    James, Clara E; Britz, Juliane; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Hauert, Claude-Alain; Michel, Christoph M

    2008-10-01

    In western tonal music, musical phrases end with an explicit harmonic consequent which is highly expected. As such expectation is a consequence of musical background, cerebral processing of incongruities of musical grammar might be a function of expertise. We hypothesized that a subtle incongruity of standard closure should evoke a profound and rapid reaction in an expert's brain. If such a reaction is due to neuroplasticity as a consequence of musical training, it should be correlated with distinctive activations in sensory, motor and/or cognitive function related brain areas in response to the incongruent closure. Using event related potential (ERP) source imaging, we determined the temporal dynamics of neuronal activity in highly trained pianists and musical laymen in response to syntactic harmonic incongruities in expressive music, which were easily detected by the experts but not by the laymen. Our results revealed that closure incongruity evokes a selective early response in musical experts, characterized by a strong, right lateralized negative ERP component. Statistical source analysis could demonstrate putative contribution to the generation of this component in right temporal-limbic areas, encompassing hippocampal complex and amygdala, and in right insula. Its early onset (approximately 200 ms) preceded responses in frontal areas that may reflect more conscious processing. These results go beyond previous work demonstrating that musical training can change activity of sensory and motor areas during musical or audio-motor tasks, and suggest that functional plasticity in right medial-temporal structures and insula also modulates processing of subtle harmonic incongruities. PMID:18640279

  19. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  20. Studying the Accuracy of Software Process Elicitation: The User Articulated Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crabtree, Carlton A.

    2010-01-01

    Process models are often the basis for demonstrating improvement and compliance in software engineering organizations. A descriptive model is a type of process model describing the human activities in software development that actually occur. The purpose of a descriptive model is to provide a documented baseline for further process improvement…

  1. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  2. Medical Knowledge Base Acquisition: The Role of the Expert Review Process in Disease Profile Construction

    PubMed Central

    Giuse, Nunzia Bettinsoli; Bankowitz, Richard A.; Giuse, Dario A.; Parker, Ronnie C.; Miller, Randolph A.

    1989-01-01

    In order to better understand the knowledge acquisition process, we studied the changes which a newly developed “preliminary” QMR disease profile undergoes during the expert review process. Changes in the ten most recently created disease profiles from the INTERNIST-1/QMR knowledge base were analyzed. We classified the changes which occurred during knowledge base construction by the type of change and the reason for the change. Observed changes to proposed findings could be grouped according to whether a change was needed to maintain consistency with the existing knowledge base, or because of disagreement over knowledge content with the domain expert. Out of 987 total proposed findings in the ten profiles, 233 findings underwent 274 changes, approximately one change for each three proposed findings. A total of 43% of the changes were additions or deletions of findings or links compared to the preliminary disease profile, and 33% of the changes were alterations in the numerical value of the evoking strength or frequency. A total of 126 (46%) of changes were required to maintain consistency of the knowledge base, whereas the remaining 148 (54%) changes were altered based on suggestions made by the domain expert based on domain content. The type of change (consistency vs. domain knowledge) was found to correlate both with the class of finding (newly constructed vs. previously used) and with the experience of the profiler (novice vs. experienced). These differences suggest that some but not all aspects of the disease profiling process can be improved upon with experience. Since it is generally agreed that the construction of a knowledge base depends heavily upon the knowledge acquisition process, this study provides some insight into areas of investigation for others interested in the construction of automated tools to aid the process of knowledge base construction. It also provides support for the observation that knowledge base construction has at least some

  3. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of…

  4. The NERV Methodology: Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation, Reasoning and Validation in Agile Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Domah, Darshan

    2013-01-01

    Agile software development has become very popular around the world in recent years, with methods such as Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP). Literature suggests that functionality is the primary focus in Agile processes while non-functional requirements (NFR) are either ignored or ill-defined. However, for software to be of good quality both…

  5. Furin-processed antigens targeted to the secretory route elicit functional TAP1-/-CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo.

    PubMed

    Medina, Francisco; Ramos, Manuel; Iborra, Salvador; de León, Patricia; Rodríguez-Castro, Marta; Del Val, Margarita

    2009-10-01

    Most pathogen-derived peptides recognized by CD8+ CTL are produced by proteasomes and delivered to the endoplasmic reticulum by the TAP transporters associated with Ag processing. Alternative proteases also produce antigenic peptides, but their actual relevance is unclear. There is a need to quantify the contribution of these supplementary pathways in vitro and in vivo. A well-defined TAP-independent secretory route of Ag processing involves the trans-Golgi network protease furin. Quantitation of this route by using OVA constructs encoded by vaccinia viruses indicates that it provides approximately one-third of all surface complexes of peptide and MHC class I molecules. Generation of the epitope carboxyl terminus is a dramatic rate-limiting step, since bypassing it increased efficiency by at least 1000-fold. Notably, the secretory construct activated a similar percentage of Ag-specific CD8+ T cells in wild type as in TAP1-deficient mice, which allow only secretory routes but which have a 10- to 20-fold smaller CD8 compartment. Moreover, these TAP1(-/-) OVA-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes accomplished elimination of epitope-bearing cells in vivo. The results obtained with this experimental system underscore the potential of secretory pathways of MHC class I Ag presentation to elicit functional CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo and support the hypothesis that noncytosolic processing mechanisms may compensate in vivo for the lack of proteasome participation in Ag processing in persons genetically deficient in TAP and thus contribute to pathogen control. PMID:19752221

  6. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.…

  7. Dispreferred adjective orders elicit brain responses associated with lexico-semantic rather than syntactic processing.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hsu-Wen; Federmeier, Kara D

    2012-09-26

    We examined how adjective ordering is used in language comprehension by crossing order preference and concreteness in phrases consisting of two adjectives and a noun. We used both more typical phrases in which the preferred order has a concrete second adjective ("exhaustive hardback encyclopedia") and those with a concrete first adjective in the preferred order ("heavy informative encyclopedia"). We found that concreteness-related modulations of the ERP waveform were likely responsible for prior reports of increased positivity to dispreferred orders (interpreted as a syntactic P600-like effect). When concreteness is controlled, instead, we found that dispreferred orders are associated with larger N400s to the second adjective and following noun. This suggests that dispreferred adjective orders impact lexico-semantic predictability and the ability to generate mental images of the referent but do not result in syntactic processing difficulties. PMID:22885290

  8. Discovering the knowledge creation process of an expert group in women-friendly policy: The policy case of Seoul City.

    PubMed

    Oh, Young Sam; Nam, SungHee; Kim, Yuna

    2016-01-01

    This research explores how expert knowledge is created in the process of women-friendly policy making, based on actor network theory (ANT). To address this purpose, this study uses the "Women's Happiness in the City of Seoul" policy initiated by the local government of Seoul as one example of policy development. Research findings demonstrate that knowledge creation in expert groups followed the four stages suggested by ANT. In addition, this study found that various types of knowledge emerged from individual experts. This research elucidates the process of knowledge creation and its meanings for women-friendly policy. PMID:26684220

  9. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  10. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  11. CABPRO: A rule-based expert system for process planning of assembled multiwire cables

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.; Colmer, J.S.; Miley, M.

    1987-12-01

    Process planning for the manufacture of multiwire cables is a labor-intensive activity, often based on engineering experience and rules of thumb. Rather than the traditional form of expert system programming, which follows decision trees to a preplanned answer, this activity requires the system to produce an original plan based solely on the design requirements of the cable. CABPRO is a prototype system which produces the assembly instructions of a multiwire cable with a subset of features associated with it. CABPRO has proven to produce work instructions equivalent to those chosen by process engineers for the same cables in a fraction of the time. These results show promise that the CABPRO prototype will provide a solid foundation for the production version.

  12. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 2, Code manual

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-09-01

    We recommend the reader first review Volume 1 of this document, Code Theory, before reading Volume 2. In this volume we make extensive use of terms and concepts described and defined in Volume 1 which are not redefined here to the same extent. To try to reduce the amount of redundant information, we have restricted this volume to the presentation of the expert system code and refer back to the theory described in Volume 1 when necessary. Verification and validation of the results are presented in Volume 3, Application, of this document. Volume 3 also presents the implementation of the component characteristics diagnostic approach through artificial neural networks discussed in Volume 1. We decided to present the component characteristics approach in Volume 3, as opposed to write a separate code manual for it, because the approach, although general, requires a case-by-case analysis. The purpose of this volume is to present the details of the expert system (ES) portion o the PRODIAG process diagnostic program. In addition, we present here the graphical diagnostics interface (GDI) and illustrate the combined use of the ES and GDI with a sample problem. For completeness, we provide the file names of all files, programs and major subroutines of these two systems, ES and GDI, and their corresponding location in the Reactor Analysis Division (RA) computer network and Reactor Engineering Division (RE) computer network as of 30 September 1995.

  13. NLRC5 elicits antitumor immunity by enhancing processing and presentation of tumor antigens to CD8+ T lymphocytes

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez, Galaxia M.; Bobbala, Diwakar; Serrano, Daniel; Mayhue, Marian; Champagne, Audrey; Saucier, Caroline; Steimle, Viktor; Kufer, Thomas A.; Menendez, Alfredo; Ramanathan, Sheela; Ilangumaran, Subburaj

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Cancers can escape immunesurveillance by diminishing the expression of MHC class-I molecules (MHC-I) and components of the antigen-processing machinery (APM). Developing new approaches to reverse these defects could boost the efforts to restore antitumor immunity. Recent studies have shown that the expression of MHC-I and antigen-processing molecules is transcriptionally regulated by NOD-like receptor CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5). To investigate whether NLRC5 could be used to improve tumor immunogenicity, we established stable lines of B16-F10 melanoma cells expressing NLRC5 (B16-5), the T cell co-stimulatory molecule CD80 (B16-CD80) or both (B16-5/80). Cells harboring NLRC5 constitutively expressed MHC-I and LMP2, LMP7 and TAP1 genes of the APM. The B16-5 cells efficiently presented the melanoma antigenic peptide gp10025–33 to Pmel-1 TCR transgenic CD8+ T cells and induced their proliferation. In the presence of CD80, B16-5 cells stimulated Pmel-1 cells even without the addition of gp100 peptide, indicating that NLRC5 facilitated the processing and presentation of endogenous tumor antigen. Upon subcutaneous implantation, B16-5 cells showed markedly reduced tumor growth in C57BL/6 hosts but not in immunodeficient hosts, indicating that the NLRC5-expressing tumor cells elicited antitumor immunity. Following intravenous injection, B16-5 and B16-5/80 cells formed fewer lung tumor foci compared to control cells. In mice depleted of CD8+ T cells, B16-5 cells formed large subcutaneous and lung tumors. Finally, immunization with irradiated B16-5 cells conferred protection against challenge by parental B16 cells. Collectively, our findings indicate that NLRC5 could be exploited to restore tumor immunogenicity and to stimulate protective antitumor immunity. PMID:27471621

  14. NLRC5 elicits antitumor immunity by enhancing processing and presentation of tumor antigens to CD8(+) T lymphocytes.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Galaxia M; Bobbala, Diwakar; Serrano, Daniel; Mayhue, Marian; Champagne, Audrey; Saucier, Caroline; Steimle, Viktor; Kufer, Thomas A; Menendez, Alfredo; Ramanathan, Sheela; Ilangumaran, Subburaj

    2016-06-01

    Cancers can escape immunesurveillance by diminishing the expression of MHC class-I molecules (MHC-I) and components of the antigen-processing machinery (APM). Developing new approaches to reverse these defects could boost the efforts to restore antitumor immunity. Recent studies have shown that the expression of MHC-I and antigen-processing molecules is transcriptionally regulated by NOD-like receptor CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5). To investigate whether NLRC5 could be used to improve tumor immunogenicity, we established stable lines of B16-F10 melanoma cells expressing NLRC5 (B16-5), the T cell co-stimulatory molecule CD80 (B16-CD80) or both (B16-5/80). Cells harboring NLRC5 constitutively expressed MHC-I and LMP2, LMP7 and TAP1 genes of the APM. The B16-5 cells efficiently presented the melanoma antigenic peptide gp10025-33 to Pmel-1 TCR transgenic CD8(+) T cells and induced their proliferation. In the presence of CD80, B16-5 cells stimulated Pmel-1 cells even without the addition of gp100 peptide, indicating that NLRC5 facilitated the processing and presentation of endogenous tumor antigen. Upon subcutaneous implantation, B16-5 cells showed markedly reduced tumor growth in C57BL/6 hosts but not in immunodeficient hosts, indicating that the NLRC5-expressing tumor cells elicited antitumor immunity. Following intravenous injection, B16-5 and B16-5/80 cells formed fewer lung tumor foci compared to control cells. In mice depleted of CD8(+) T cells, B16-5 cells formed large subcutaneous and lung tumors. Finally, immunization with irradiated B16-5 cells conferred protection against challenge by parental B16 cells. Collectively, our findings indicate that NLRC5 could be exploited to restore tumor immunogenicity and to stimulate protective antitumor immunity. PMID:27471621

  15. Development of an on-line expert system for integrated alarm processing in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Han Gon; Choi, Seong Soo; Kang, Ki Sig; Chang, Soon Heung

    1994-12-31

    An on-line expert system, called AFDS (Alarm Filtering and Diagnostic System), has been developed to assist operators in effectively maintaining plant safety and to enhance plant availability using advanced computer technologies for alarm processing. The AFDS is designed to perform alarm filtering and overall plantwide diagnosis when an abnormal state occurs. in addition to these functions, it carries out alarm prognosis to provide the operator with prediction-based messages and to generate high-level alarms that can be used as another diagnostic information. The system is developed on a SUN SPARC 2 workstation, and its target domain is the alarm system in the main control room of Yonggwang units 1 and 2.

  16. Methodology development of an engineering design expert system utilizing a modular knowledge-base inference process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, Steven John

    Methodology development was conducted to incorporate a modular knowledge-base representation into an expert system engineering design application. The objective for using multidisciplinary methodologies in defining a design system was to develop a system framework that would be applicable to a wide range of engineering applications. The technique of "knowledge clustering" was used to construct a general decision tree for all factual information relating to the design application. This construction combined the design process surface knowledge and specific application depth knowledge. Utilization of both levels of knowledge created a system capable of processing multiple controlling tasks including; organizing factual information relative to the cognitive levels of the design process, building finite element models for depth knowledge analysis, developing a standardized finite element code for parallel processing, and determining a best solution generated by design optimization procedures. Proof of concept for the methodology developed here is shown in the implementation of an application defining the analysis and optimization of a composite aircraft canard subjected to a general compound loading condition. This application contained a wide range of factual information and heuristic rules. The analysis tools used included a finite element (FE) processor and numerical optimizer. An advisory knowledge-base was also developed to provide a standard for conversion of serial FE code for parallel processing. All knowledge-bases developed operated as either an advisory, selection, or classification systems. Laminate properties are limited to even-numbered, quasi-isotropic ply stacking sequences. This retained full influence of the coupled in-plane and bending effects of the structures behavior. The canard is modeled as a constant thickness plate and discretized into a varying number of four or nine-noded, quadrilateral, shear-deformable plate elements. The benefit gained by

  17. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  18. Breast Implant–associated Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma: Updated Results from a Structured Expert Consultation Process

    PubMed Central

    Predmore, Zachary S.; Mattke, Soeren; van Busum, Kristin; Gidengil, Courtney A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite increased cases published on breast implant–associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL), important clinical issues remain unanswered. We conducted a second structured expert consultation process to rate statements related to the diagnosis, management, and surveillance of this disease, based on their interpretation of published evidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of 12 experts was selected based on nominations from national specialty societies, academic department heads, and recognized researchers in the United States. Results: Panelists agreed that (1) this disease should be called “BIA-ALCL”; (2) late seromas occurring >1 year after breast implantation should be evaluated via ultrasound, and if a seroma is present, the fluid should be aspirated and sent for culture, cytology, flow cytometry, and cell block to an experienced hematopathologist; (3) surgical removal of the affected implant and capsule (as completely as possible) should occur, which is sufficient to eradicate capsule-confined BIA-ALCL; (4) surveillance should consist of clinical follow-up at least every 6 months for at least 5 years and breast ultrasound yearly for at least 2 years; and (5) BIA-ALCL is generally a biologically indolent disease with a good prognosis, unless it extends beyond the capsule and/or presents as a mass. They firmly disagreed with statements that chemotherapy and radiation therapy should be given to all patients with BIA-ALCL. Conclusions: Our assessment yielded consistent results on a number of key, incompletely addressed issues regarding BIA-ALCL, but additional research is needed to support these statement ratings and enhance our understanding of the biology, treatment, and outcomes associated with this disease. PMID:25674377

  19. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques; Wei, Thomas Y. C.

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  20. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  1. SP-100 shield design automation process using expert system and heuristic search techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcille, Thomas F.; Protsik, Robert; Deane, Nelson A.; Hoover, Darryl G.

    1993-01-01

    The SP-100 shield subsystem design process has been modified to utilize the GE Corporate Reserch and Development program, ENGINEOUS (Tong 1990). ENGINEOUS is a software system that automates the use of Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) analysis programs in the engineering design process. The shield subsystem design process incorporates a nuclear subsystems design and performance code, a two-dimensional neutral particle transport code, several input processors and two general purpose neutronic output processors. Coupling these programs within ENGINEOUS provides automatic transition paths between applications, with no source code modifications. ENGINEOUS captures human design knowledge, as well as information about the specific CAE applications and stores this information in knowledge base files. The knowledge base information is used by the ENGINEOUS expert system to drive knowledge directed and knowledge supplemented search modules to find an optimum shield design for a given reactor definition, ensuring that specified constraints are satisfied. Alternate designs, not accommodated in the optimization design rules, can readily be explored through the use of a parametric study capability.

  2. Examining the Stability of Experts' Clinical Case Processing: An Experimental Manipulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Bruin, Anique B. H.; Van De Wiel, Margaretha W. J.; Rikers, Remy M. J. P.; Schmidt, Henk G.

    2005-01-01

    The present study was undertaken to examine the hypothesis that the intermediate effect in clinical case recall is partly explained by experts' lower motivation to write down "everything" they remember when asked for free recall. Medical experts and students were presented with two clinical cases, which they had to read, diagnose, and recall.…

  3. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  4. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  5. Practice Guidance for Buprenorphine for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorders: Results of an Expert Panel Process

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Carrie M.; Lindsay, Dawn; Williams, Jessica; Ayers, Amanda; Schuster, James; Cilia, Alyssa; Flaherty, Michael T.; Mandell, Todd; Gordon, Adam J.; Stein, Bradley D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although numbers of physicians credentialed to prescribe buprenorphine has increased over time, many credentialed physicians may be reluctant to treat individuals with opioid use disorders due to discomfort with prescribing buprenorphine. Though prescribing physicians are required to complete a training course, many have questions about buprenorphine and treatment guidelines have not been updated to reflect clinical experience in recent years. We report on an expert panel process to update and expand buprenorphine guidelines. Methods We identified candidate guidelines through expert opinion and a review of the literature and used a modified RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method to assess the validity of the candidate guidelines. An expert panel completed two rounds of rating, with a meeting to discuss the guidelines between the first and second rating. Results Through the rating process, expert panel members rated 90 candidate guideline statements across eight domains, including candidacy for buprenorphine treatment, dosing of buprenorphine, psychosocial counseling, and treatment of co-occurring depression and anxiety. A total of 65 guideline statements (72%) were rated as valid. Expert panel members had agreement in some areas, such as the treatment of co-occurring mental health problems, but disagreement in others, including the appropriate dosing of buprenorphine given patient complexities. Conclusions Through an expert panel process, we developed an updated and expanded set of buprenorphine treatment guidelines; this additional guidance may increase credentialed physicians’ comfort with prescribing buprenorphine to patients with opioid use disorders. Future efforts should focus on appropriate dosing guidance and ensuring that guidelines can be adapted to a variety of practice settings. PMID:25844527

  6. Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

    PubMed

    Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

    2015-07-01

    Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. PMID:25850859

  7. Architecture For The Optimization Of A Machining Process In Real Time Through Rule-Based Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrano, Rafael; González, Luis Carlos; Martín, Francisco Jesús

    2009-11-01

    Under the project SENSOR-IA which has had financial funding from the Order of Incentives to the Regional Technology Centers of the Counsil of Innovation, Science and Enterprise of Andalusia, an architecture for the optimization of a machining process in real time through rule-based expert system has been developed. The architecture consists of an acquisition system and sensor data processing engine (SATD) from an expert system (SE) rule-based which communicates with the SATD. The SE has been designed as an inference engine with an algorithm for effective action, using a modus ponens rule model of goal-oriented rules.The pilot test demonstrated that it is possible to govern in real time the machining process based on rules contained in a SE. The tests have been done with approximated rules. Future work includes an exhaustive collection of data with different tool materials and geometries in a database to extract more precise rules.

  8. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these…

  9. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  10. The Role of Inductive Expert Systems Generators in the Social Science Research Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garson, G. David

    Most of what may be construed as political science has always proceeded through induction, which depends heavily on the insight, intuition, and personal brilliance of the particular author. Another approach that is closely associated with the early induction through examples is the expert system. The outcomes of this approach are not measures of…

  11. Background and basis for a knowledge elicitation shell for lifetime predictions from stress corrosion cracking data

    SciTech Connect

    Roberge, P.R.

    1995-12-31

    An ideal expert system should closely reproduce the functions normally performed by the original source expert(s). But the complex transformations of a lifetime of industrial expertise into conveniently accessible software requires the willing and active participation of domain experts whose knowledge is rarely organized for such a transformation. The matching of logical and meticulous knowledge elicitation with memory-based judgments and expertise has often proved to be a difficult task. This paper describes an approach to construct a knowledge elicitation shell specifically adapted to the field of corrosion-related problems and expertise. The knowledge elicitation shell was structured along the lines of what has recently become the framework for the transfer of corrosion information to management and design engineers. The recent work published by Professor R.W. Staehle on the general topic of lifetime prediction and the impact of stress corrosion cracking on materials was used for this task. One obvious advantage of using an established formalism is the availability of supporting documentation and background material. The advantage of using Professor Staehle`s work in particular is the clarity of his points of view that reflect a solid career in materials science and engineering. In this paper, the environment-induced cracking of high-strength aluminum alloys is used as an example to illustrate how the elicitation shell could be activated. It is believed that, by using the elicitation shell, human experts will have to rationalize some aspects of their expertise and subsequently become able to establish new links between facts and corrosion data. The process of building tables of certainty factors during the shell operation and interaction with users is also discussed.

  12. Cross-modal symbolic processing can elicit either an N2 or a protracted N2/N400 response.

    PubMed

    Griffiths, Oren; Le Pelley, Mike E; Jack, Bradley N; Luque, David; Whitford, Thomas J

    2016-07-01

    A cross-modal symbolic paradigm was used to elicit EEG activity related to semantic incongruence. Twenty-five undergraduate students viewed pairings of visual lexical cues (e.g., DOG) with congruent (50% of trials) or incongruent (50%) auditory nonlexical stimuli (animal vocalizations; e.g., sound of a dog woofing or a cat meowing). In one condition, many different pairs of congruent/incongruent stimuli were shown, whereas in a second condition only two pairs of stimuli were repeatedly shown. A typical N400-like pattern of incongruence-related activity (including activity in the N2 time window) was evident in the condition using many stimuli, whereas the incongruence-related activity in the two-stimuli condition was confined to differential N2-like activity. A supplementary analysis excluded stimulus characteristics as the source of this differential activity between conditions. We found that a single individual performing a fixed task can demonstrate either a protracted N400-like pattern of activity or a more temporally focused N2-like pattern of activity in response to the same stimulus, which suggests that the N2 may be a precursor to the protracted N400 response. PMID:27006093

  13. Optimizing Instructional Designer--Subject Matter Expert Communication in the Design and Development of Multimedia Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keppell, Mike

    2001-01-01

    Summarizes a study which explored the development, trial, and implementation of the Content Production Process (CPP) which was designed to assist instructional designers in eliciting and conceptualizing unfamiliar content from subject matter experts. Highlights include advance organizers, schema theory, consultation practices, knowledge…

  14. Expert Systems Application In Manufacturing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Som, Pradip; Chitturi, Ramesh; Babu, A. J. G.

    1987-05-01

    Expert system, a special branch of Artificial Intelligence finds its way in the domain of manufacturing. This paper presents the basic ideas and features of the expert systems, problems in manufacturing and application of expert systems in manufacturing. As the process planning is an important phase in manufacturing, the suitability of expert systems for process planning area has been highlighted. Several expert systems, developed to solve manufacturing problems are also discussed in the paper.

  15. The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014

    PubMed Central

    Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose: One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students’ and experts’ performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. Materials and methods: This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members’ performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts’ viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don’t know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. Results: From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0

  16. Lateralization of the frontal lobe functions elicited by a cognitive bias task is a fundamental process. Lesion study.

    PubMed

    Aoyagi, Kakurou; Aihara, Masao; Goldberg, Elkhonon; Nakazawa, Shinpei

    2005-09-01

    function elicited by mCBT is fundamental and independent of language lateralization, rather than secondary to it. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that the timetable for the development of lateralized frontal lobe functions depends upon biologic factors. PMID:16122629

  17. Separable Processes Before, During, and After the N400 Elicited by Previously Inferred and New Information: Evidence from Time-Frequency Decompositions

    PubMed Central

    Steele, Vaughn R.; Bernat, Edward M.; van den Broek, Paul; Collins, Paul F.; Patrick, Christopher J.; Marsolek, Chad J.

    2012-01-01

    Successful comprehension during reading often requires inferring information not explicitly presented. This information is readily accessible when subsequently encountered, and a neural correlate of this is an attenuation of the N400 event-related potential (ERP). We used ERPs and time-frequency (TF) analysis to investigate neural correlates of processing inferred information after a causal coherence inference had been generated during text comprehension. Participants read short texts, some of which promoted inference generation. After each text, they performed lexical decisions to target words that were unrelated or inference-related to the preceding text. Consistent with previous findings, inference-related words elicited an attenuated N400 relative to unrelated words. TF analyses revealed unique contributions to the N400 from activity occurring at 1–6 Hz (theta) and 0–2 Hz (delta), supporting the view that multiple, sequential processes underlie the N400. PMID:23165117

  18. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... expert judgment elicitation comports with the level of knowledge required by the questions or issues... judgment elicitation comports with the level and variety of knowledge required by the questions or...

  19. Unconsciously elicited perceptual prior

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Raymond; Baria, Alexis T.; Flounders, Matthew W.; He, Biyu J.

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence over the past decade suggests that vision is not simply a passive, feed-forward process in which cortical areas relay progressively more abstract information to those higher up in the visual hierarchy, but rather an inferential process with top-down processes actively guiding and shaping perception. However, one major question that persists is whether such processes can be influenced by unconsciously perceived stimuli. Recent psychophysics and neuroimaging studies have revealed that while consciously perceived stimuli elicit stronger responses in higher visual and frontoparietal areas than those that fail to reach conscious awareness, the latter can still drive high-level brain and behavioral responses. We investigated whether unconscious processing of a masked natural image could facilitate subsequent conscious recognition of its degraded counterpart (a black-and-white “Mooney” image) presented many seconds later. We found that this is indeed the case, suggesting that conscious vision may be influenced by priors established by unconscious processing of a fleeting image.

  20. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  1. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

  2. Becoming a Lunari or Taiyo expert: learned attention to parts drives holistic processing of faces.

    PubMed

    Chua, Kao-Wei; Richler, Jennifer J; Gauthier, Isabel

    2014-06-01

    Faces are processed holistically, but the locus of holistic processing remains unclear. We created two novel races of faces (Lunaris and Taiyos) to study how experience with face parts influences holistic processing. In Experiment 1, subjects individuated Lunaris wherein the top, bottom, or both face halves contained diagnostic information. Subjects who learned to attend to face parts exhibited no holistic processing. This suggests that individuation only leads to holistic processing when the whole face is attended. In Experiment 2, subjects individuated both Lunaris and Taiyos, with diagnostic information in complementary face halves of the two races. Holistic processing was measured with composites made of either diagnostic or nondiagnostic face parts. Holistic processing was only observed for composites made from diagnostic face parts, demonstrating that holistic processing can occur for diagnostic face parts that were never seen together. These results suggest that holistic processing is an expression of learned attention to diagnostic face parts. PMID:24588261

  3. CABPRO: An expert system for process planning multiwire cables. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.

    1994-04-01

    CABPRO (CABle PROcessor) is a set of computer programs using Artificial Intelligence programming to automatically generate process plans and work instructions in support of the manufacture of multiwire cables. Development of these programs required selecting appropriate hardware and software tools, defining engineering process planning activities, acquiring and representing process planning knowledge, and creating a prototype system. A successful prototype was developed and demonstrated.

  4. Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

    PubMed

    Staccini, Pascal M; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

    2002-01-01

    Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

  5. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 1, Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.; Vitela, J.E.

    1995-09-01

    The function of the PRODIAG code is to diagnose on-line the root cause of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) system transient with trace back to the identification of the malfunctioning component using the T-H instrumentation signals exclusively. The code methodology is based on the Al techniques of automated reasoning/expert systems (ES) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The research and development objective is to develop a generic code methodology which would be plant- and T-H-system-independent. For the ES part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be implemented through input only and at that only through a Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (PID) database. For the ANN part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be through the ANN training data for normal component characteristics and the same PID database information. PRODIAG would, therefore, be generic and portable from T-H system to T-H system and from plant to plant without requiring any code-related modifications except for the PID database and the ANN training with the normal component characteristics. This would give PRODIAG the generic feature which numerical simulation plant codes such as TRAC or RELAP5 have. As the code is applied to different plants and different T-H systems, only the connectivity information, the operating conditions and the normal component characteristics are changed, and the changes are made entirely through input. Verification and validation of PRODIAG would, be T-H system independent and would be performed only ``once``.

  6. A first-principles generic methodology for representing the knowledge base of a process diagnostic expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Briggs, L.L.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we present a methodology for identifying faulty component candidates of process malfunctions through basic physical principles of conservation, functional classification of components and information from the process schematics. The basic principles of macroscopic balance of mass, momentum and energy in thermal hydraulic control volumes are applied in a novel approach to incorporate deep knowledge into the knowledge base. Additional deep knowledge is incorporated through the functional classification of process components according to their influence in disturbing the macroscopic balance equations. Information from the process schematics is applied to identify the faulty component candidates after the type of imbalance in the control volumes is matched against the functional classification of the components. Except for the information from the process schematics, this approach is completely general and independent of the process under consideration. The use of basic first-principles, which are physically correct, and the process-independent architecture of the diagnosis procedure allow for the verification and validation of the system. A prototype process diagnosis expert system is developed and a test problem is presented to identify faulty component candidates in the presence of a single failure in a hypothetical balance of plant of a liquid metal nuclear reactor plant.

  7. Diverse environmental stresses elicit distinct responses at the level of pre-mRNA processing in yeast.

    PubMed

    Bergkessel, Megan; Whitworth, Gregg B; Guthrie, Christine

    2011-08-01

    Gene expression in eukaryotic cells is profoundly influenced by the post-transcriptional processing of mRNAs, including the splicing of introns in the nucleus and both nuclear and cytoplasmic degradation pathways. These processes have the potential to affect both the steady-state levels and the kinetics of changes to levels of intron-containing transcripts. Here we report the use of a splicing isoform-specific microarray platform to investigate the effects of diverse stress conditions on pre-mRNA processing. Interestingly, we find that diverse stresses cause distinct patterns of changes at this level. The responses we observed are most dramatic for the RPGs and can be categorized into three major classes. The first is characterized by accumulation of RPG pre-mRNA and is seen in multiple types of amino acid starvation regimes; the magnitude of splicing inhibition correlates with the severity of the stress. The second class is characterized by a rapid decrease in both pre- and mature RPG mRNA and is seen in many stresses that inactivate the TORC1 kinase complex. These decreases depend on nuclear turnover of the intron-containing pre-RNAs. The third class is characterized by a decrease in RPG pre-mRNA, with only a modest reduction in the mature species; this response is observed in hyperosmotic and cation-toxic stresses. We show that casein kinase 2 (CK2) makes important contributions to the changes in pre-mRNA processing, particularly for the first two classes of stress responses. In total, our data suggest that complex post-transcriptional programs cooperate to fine-tune expression of intron-containing transcripts in budding yeast. PMID:21697354

  8. Combining Analytical Hierarchy Process and Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering in Search of Expert Consensus in Green Corridors Development Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

    2013-07-01

    Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts—landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers—revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

  9. Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

    PubMed

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

    2012-12-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD. PMID:23211844

  10. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  11. The effects of time pressure on chess skill: an investigation into fast and slow processes underlying expert performance.

    PubMed

    van Harreveld, Frenk; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; van der Maas, Han L J

    2007-09-01

    The ability to play chess is generally assumed to depend on two types of processes: slow processes such as search, and fast processes such as pattern recognition. It has been argued that an increase in time pressure during a game selectively hinders the ability to engage in slow processes. Here we study the effect of time pressure on expert chess performance in order to test the hypothesis that compared to weak players, strong players depend relatively heavily on fast processes. In the first study we examine the performance of players of various strengths at an online chess server, for games played under different time controls. In a second study we examine the effect of time controls on performance in world championship matches. Both studies consistently show that skill differences between players become less predictive of the game outcome as the time controls are tightened. This result indicates that slow processes are at least as important for strong players as they are for weak players. Our findings pose a challenge for current theorizing in the field of expertise and chess. PMID:17186308

  12. The DELPHI expert process of the German umbrella project AUGE as basis for recommendations to CO2 storage in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilz, Peter; Schoebel, Birgit; Liebscher, Axel

    2016-04-01

    Within the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN funding scheme for geological CO2 storage by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany 33 projects (135 subprojects) have been funded with a total budget of 58 Mio € (excluding industry funds) from 2005 to 2014. In 2012, the German parliament passed the transposition of the EU CCS Directive 2009/31/EG into the national "Carbon Dioxide Storage Law" (KSpG). Annex 1 of the KSpG provides a description of criteria for the characterization and assessment of a potential CO2 storage site. Annex 2 describes the expected monitoring system of a CO2 storage site. The criteria given in the appendices are of general nature, which reflects (1) that the CO2 storage technology is still being developed and (2) that site specific aspects needs to be considered. In 2012 an umbrella project called AUGE has been launched in order to compile and summarize the results of the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN projects to underpin the two Annexes scientifically. By integration of the individual project results AUGE aims at derive recommendations for the review and implementation of the KSpG. The recommendations shall be drafted based on a common ground of science, public authorities and industry. Therefore, the AUGE project includes a Delphi expert process as an essential part. It is realized in cooperation with the company COMPARE Consulting, Göppingen. The implementation of the Delphi-Process is organized in three steps: • After the technical preparation of a standardized questionnaire (2014/2015) it was sent to 129 experts from science, industry and public authorities in Germany. After a few weeks of consideration time, 40 persons (30 %) had decided to participate actively in this inquiry. • Following the results of the first interrogation campaign, the second survey campaign started at the end of 2015. The same list of questions was used, complemented with the results of the first inquiry campaign. The intention is reduce the variance of the

  13. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  14. Expert System Development in the Classroom: Processes and Outcomes. Technical Report 91-1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wideman, Herbert H.; Owston, Ronald D.

    This study examined cognitive processes and outcomes associated with student knowledge base development. Sixty-nine students from two grade 8 classes were randomly assigned to one of three groups: a knowledge base development (KBD) group, a problem-solving software group, and a control group. Those in the KBD group received relevant instruction…

  15. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  16. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  17. Expectations, observations, and the cognitive processes that bind them: expert assessment of examinee performance.

    PubMed

    St-Onge, Christina; Chamberland, Martine; Lévesque, Annie; Varpio, Lara

    2016-08-01

    Performance-based assessment (PBA) is a valued assessment approach in medical education, be it in a clerkship, residency, or practice context. Raters are intrinsic to PBA and the increased use of PBA has lead to an increased interest in rater cognition. Although several researchers have tackled factors that may influence the variability in rater judgment, the critical examination of rater observation of performance and the translation of that data into judgements are being investigated. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively investigate the cognitive processes of raters, and to create a framework that conceptualizes those processes when raters assess a complex performance. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 11 faculty members (nominated as excellent assessors) from a Department of Medicine to investigate how raters observe, interpret, and translate performance into judgments. The transcribed verbal protocols were analyzed using Constructivist Grounded Theory in order to develop a theoretical model of raters' assessment processes. Several themes emerged from the data and were grouped according to three macro-level themes describing how the raters balance two sources of data [(1) external sources of information and (2) internal/personal sources of information] by relying on specific cognitive processes to assess an examinee performance. The results from our study demonstrate that assessment is a difficult cognitive task that involves nuance using specific cognitive processes to weigh external and internal data against each other. Our data clearly draws attention to the constant struggle between objectivity and subjectivity that is observed in assessment as illustrated by the importance given to nuancing the examinee's observed performance. PMID:26620923

  18. An expert system supporting decision making process for sustainable groundwater use in main alluvial aquifers in Slovenia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souvent, Petra; Vižintin, Goran; Celarc, Sašo; Čenčur Curk, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    The expert decision support system for groundwater management in the shallow alluvial aquifers was developed to assist the decision makers to quantify available groundwater for a given alluvial aquifer and provide additional information about quantity of groundwater available for water rights licensing. The system links numerical groundwater flow models with the water permits and concessions databases in a complex decision support system. Six regional stand-alone groundwater models are used in the process of the assessment of groundwater quantitative status as well as for assessing availability of groundwater resources during the period of maximum water consumption and minimum groundwater recharge. Model runs have been realized in a steady state and are calibrated to a medium-low hydrological field conditions, because water quantities for all already granted as well as to-be granted water rights have to be ensured in any time for several years. The major goal of the expert decision support system is therefore to provide control mechanisms in order to verify the water rights licensing for the sustainable use of groundwater resources. The system enables that the water quantity data from water permits and concessions in conjunction with the results of numerical groundwater modeling are used in the managing process of granting new water rights to users in terms of their long-term access to groundwater (sufficient quantity of groundwater) and in relation to the water rights of other users (co-impact of groundwater pumping). Also, groundwater access must be managed in such a way that it does not cause unacceptable local impacts (pumping must not lower the water level for more than 2/3 of water body in the medium-low hydrological conditions).

  19. A Type-2 Fuzzy Image Processing Expert System for Diagnosing Brain Tumors.

    PubMed

    Zarinbal, M; Fazel Zarandi, M H; Turksen, I B; Izadi, M

    2015-10-01

    The focus of this paper is diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas in MRI scans by developing an interval Type-2 fuzzy automated tumor detection system. This system consists of three modules: working memory, knowledge base, and inference engine. An image processing method with three steps of preprocessing, segmentation and feature extraction, and approximate reasoning is used in inference engine module to enhance the quality of MRI scans, segment them into desired regions, extract the required features, and finally diagnose and differentiate Astrocytomas. However, brain tumors have different characteristics in different planes, so considering one plane of patient's MRI scan may cause inaccurate results. Therefore, in the developed system, several consecutive planes are processed. The performance of this system is evaluated using 95 MRI scans and the results show good improvement in diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas. PMID:26276018

  20. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  1. An instructional design process based on expert knowledge for teaching students how mechanisms are explained.

    PubMed

    Trujillo, Caleb M; Anderson, Trevor R; Pelaez, Nancy J

    2016-06-01

    In biology and physiology courses, students face many difficulties when learning to explain mechanisms, a topic that is demanding due to the immense complexity and abstract nature of molecular and cellular mechanisms. To overcome these difficulties, we asked the following question: how does an instructor transform their understanding of biological mechanisms and other difficult-to-learn topics so that students can comprehend them? To address this question, we first reviewed a model of the components used by biologists to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms: the MACH model, with the components of methods (M), analogies (A), context (C), and how (H). Next, instructional materials were developed and the teaching activities were piloted with a physical MACH model. Students who used the MACH model to guide their explanations of mechanisms exhibited both improvements and some new difficulties. Third, a series of design-based research cycles was applied to bring the activities with an improved physical MACH model into biology and biochemistry courses. Finally, a useful rubric was developed to address prevalent student difficulties. Here, we present, for physiology and biology instructors, the knowledge and resources for explaining molecular and cellular mechanisms in undergraduate courses with an instructional design process aimed at realizing pedagogical content knowledge for teaching. Our four-stage process could be adapted to advance instruction with a range of models in the life sciences. PMID:27231262

  2. Expert networks in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

  3. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

  4. Oil palm fresh fruit bunch ripeness classification based on rule- based expert system of ROI image processing technique results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfatni, M. S. M.; Shariff, A. R. M.; Abdullah, M. Z.; Marhaban, M. H.; Shafie, S. B.; Bamiruddin, M. D.; Saaed, O. M. B.

    2014-06-01

    There is a processing need for a fast, easy and accurate classification system for oil palm fruit ripeness. Such a system will be invaluable to farmers and plantation managers who need to sell their oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) for the mill as this will avoid disputes. In this paper,a new approach was developed under the name of expert rules-based systembased on the image processing techniques results of thethree different oil palm FFB region of interests (ROIs), namely; ROI1 (300x300 pixels), ROI2 (50x50 pixels) and ROI3 (100x100 pixels). The results show that the best rule-based ROIs for statistical colour feature extraction with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier at 94% were chosen as well as the ROIs that indicated results higher than the rule-based outcome, such as the ROIs of statistical colour feature extraction with artificial neural network (ANN) classifier at 94%, were selected for further FFB ripeness inspection system.

  5. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  6. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-05-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  7. Annotation methods to develop and evaluate an expert system based on natural language processing in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Quentin; Tvardik, Nastassia; Bouvry, Côme; Kergourlay, Ivan; Bittar, André; Segond, Frédérique; Darmoni, Stefan; Metzger, Marie-Hélène

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the SYNODOS collaborative project was to develop a generic IT solution, combining a medical terminology server, a semantic analyser and a knowledge base. The goal of the project was to generate meaningful epidemiological data for various medical domains from the textual content of French medical records. In the context of this project, we built a care pathway oriented conceptual model and corresponding annotation method to develop and evaluate an expert system's knowledge base. The annotation method is based on a semi-automatic process, using a software application (MedIndex). This application exchanges with a cross-lingual multi-termino-ontology portal. The annotator selects the most appropriate medical code proposed for the medical concept in question by the multi-termino-ontology portal and temporally labels the medical concept according to the course of the medical event. This choice of conceptual model and annotation method aims to create a generic database of facts for the secondary use of electronic health records data. PMID:26262366

  8. Development of an on-line fuzzy expert system for integrated alarm processing in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, S.S.; Kang, K.S.; Kim, H.G.; Chang, S.H.

    1995-08-01

    An on-line fuzzy expert system, called alarm filtering and diagnostic system (AFDS), was developed to provide the operator with clean alarm pictures and system-wide failure information during abnormal states through alarm filtering and diagnosis. In addition, it carries out alarm prognosis to warn the operator of process abnormalities. Clean alarm pictures that have no information overlapping are generated from multiple activated alarms at the alarm filtering stage. The meta rules for dynamic filtering were established on the basis of the alarm relationship network. In the case of alarm diagnosis, the relations between alarms and abnormal states are represented by means of fuzzy relations, and the compositional inference rule of fuzzy logic is utilized to infer abnormal states from the fuzzy relations. The AFDS offers the operator related operating procedures as well as diagnostic results. At the stage of alarm prognosis, the future values of some important critical safety parameters are predicted by means of Levinson algorithm selected from the comparative experiments, and the global trends of these parameters are estimated using data smoothing and fuzzy membership. This information enables early failure detection and is also used to supplement diagnostic symptoms.

  9. Rule based processing of the CD4000, CD3200 and CD Sapphire analyser output using the Cerner Discern Expert Module.

    PubMed

    Burgess, P; Robin, H; Langshaw, M; Kershaw, G; Pathiraja, R; Yuen, S; Coad, C; Xiros, N; Mansy, G; Coleman, R; Brown, R; Gibson, J; Holman, R; Hubbard, J; Wick, V; Lammers, M; Johnson, R; Huffman, K; Bell, J; Ibrahim, A; Estepa, F; Lovegrove, J; Joshua, D

    2009-12-01

    The latest version of our Laboratory Information System haematology laboratory expert system that handles the output of Abbott Cell-Dyn Sapphires, CD4000s and a CD3200 full blood count analyser in three high-volume haematology laboratories is described. The three hospital laboratories use Cerner Millennium Version 2007.02 software and the expert system uses Cerner Millennium Discern Expert rules and some small Cerner Command Language in-house programs. The entire expert system is totally integrated with the area-wide database and has been built and maintained by haematology staff members, as has the haematology database. Using patient demographic data, analyser numeric results, analyser error and morphology flags and previous results for the patient, this expert system decides whether to validate the main full blood count indices and white cell differential, or if the analyser results warrant further operator intervention/investigation before verifying, whether a blood film is required for microscopic review and if abnormal results require phoning to the staff treating the patient. The principles of this expert system can be generalized to different haematology analysers and haematology laboratories that have different workflows and different software. PMID:18691345

  10. Expert reports.

    PubMed

    Thornton, R G

    2000-10-01

    In 1996, article 4590i of the Texas Revised Civil Statutes Annotated, the statutory provision that governs health care liability claims in Texas, was amended to require claimants to file expert reports within 180 days as part of the prosecution of their claims. Sufficient expert reports include explanations of the standard of care, the deviation from that standard, and how the deviation caused the claimant's damages. Two provisions allow courts to grant a 30-day extension for filing expert reports. A good cause extension can be used to extend the filing deadline to 210 days; however, case law has not clearly defined what constitutes good cause. An accident or mistake grace period can be used to justify reports filed >210 days after the suit has been filed; judges determine whether the failure is due to a mistake or intentional indifference. As with any statute, the language is not as important as how the courts (judges) interpret that language. The statute may appear strict but room for interpretation exists. PMID:16389359

  11. Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

  12. Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts.

    PubMed

    Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Fidler, Fiona; McBride, Marissa; Flander, Louisa; Cumming, Geoff; Burgman, Mark

    2010-03-01

    Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3-point elicitation procedure, an expert is asked for a lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, the two limits creating an interval of some assigned confidence level (e.g., 80%). In our 4-step interval elicitation procedure, experts were also asked for a realistic lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, but no confidence level was assigned; the fourth step was to rate their anticipated confidence in the interval produced. In our three studies, experts made interval predictions of rates of infectious diseases (Study 1, n = 21 and Study 2, n = 24: epidemiologists and public health experts), or marine invertebrate populations (Study 3, n = 34: ecologists and biologists). We combined the results from our studies using meta-analysis, which found average overconfidence of 11.9%, 95% CI [3.5, 20.3] (a hit rate of 68.1% for 80% intervals)-a substantial decrease in overconfidence compared with previous studies. Studies 2 and 3 suggest that the 4-step procedure is more likely to reduce overconfidence than the 3-point procedure (Cohen's d = 0.61, [0.04, 1.18]). PMID:20030766

  13. LinkIT: a ludic elicitation game for eliciting risk perceptions.

    PubMed

    Cao, Yan; McGill, William L

    2013-06-01

    The mental models approach, a leading strategy to develop risk communications, involves a time- and labor-intensive interview process and a lengthy questionnaire to elicit group-level risk perceptions. We propose that a similarity ratings approach for structural knowledge elicitation can be adopted to assist the risk mental models approach. The LinkIT game, inspired by games with a purpose (GWAP) technology, is a ludic elicitation tool designed to elicit group understanding of the relations between risk factors in a more enjoyable and productive manner when compared to traditional approaches. That is, consistent with the idea of ludic elicitation, LinkIT was designed to make the elicitation process fun and enjoyable in the hopes of increasing participation and data quality in risk studies. Like the mental models approach, the group mental model obtained via the LinkIT game can hence be generated and represented in a form of influence diagrams. In order to examine the external validity of LinkIT, we conducted a study to compare its performance with respect to a more conventional questionnaire-driven approach. Data analysis results conclude that the two group mental models elicited from the two approaches are similar to an extent. Yet, LinkIT was more productive and enjoyable than the questionnaire. However, participants commented that the current game has some usability concerns. This presentation summarizes the design and evaluation of the LinkIT game and suggests areas for future work. PMID:23078149

  14. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  15. Experts, Dialects, and Discourse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhatt, Rakesh Mohan

    2002-01-01

    Examines "expert" discourse--complexes of signs and practices that organize and legitimize social existence and social reproduction--to demonstrate the ideological process involved in the manufacture of Standard English ideology and its continual duplication as necessitated by the three axiomatic conceptions of the English-sacred imagined…

  16. Being an Expert Mathematics Online Tutor: What Does Expertise Entail?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinovic, Dragana

    2009-01-01

    This article is derived from the qualitative portion of a larger study conducted on mathematics websites that provide expert volunteer help. Data consist of tutoring logs of five expert tutors from two help sites, plus interviews with these tutors. The researcher has employed theories about expertise in the educational domain to elicit details of…

  17. Development of a knowledge elicitation shell for materials performance evaluation in seawater systems

    SciTech Connect

    Trethewey, K.R; Phillips, S.; Roberge, P.R.

    1994-12-31

    It has been shown that people have a considerable aggravating influence on system failure by corrosion. In the 21st century, when the emphasis is expected to fall firmly on conservation of valuable resources and more economic use of energy -- issues likely to be governed by law -- KBSs will have a considerable role to play in reducing the incidence of premature failure by corrosion. Knowledge elicitation is a precursor to the construction of knowledge based systems (KBSS) but represents a serious difficulty for software developers. The complex transformation of lifetime industrial expertise into software requires the willing and active participation of domain experts, frequently unfamiliar with computers and not necessarily inclined or able to share the details of their thought processes. Whilst knowledge and experience can be shared by a group of people, expertise is uniquely tinted by the expert`s own individuality. This paper discusses the strategies for the formulation of expert knowledge applicable to each of the groups of people involved in corrosion failure. 38 refs.

  18. Text Mining and Natural Language Processing Approaches for Automatic Categorization of Lay Requests to Web-Based Expert Forums

    PubMed Central

    Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-01-01

    Background Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called “ask the doctor” services. Objective To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. Methods We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website “Rund ums Baby” (“Everything about Babies”) into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions (“subject matter” and “expectations”). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer’s V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. Results According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category “in vitro fertilization (IVF),” 81 (8%) into the category “ovulation,” 79 (8%) into “cycle,” and 57 (6%) into “semen analysis.” These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as “general information” and 351 (36%) as a wish for “treatment recommendations.” The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer’s V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other

  19. Effects of competitive pressure on expert performance: underlying psychological, physiological, and kinematic mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Andrew; Kavussanu, Maria; McIntyre, David; Boardley, Ian D; Ring, Christopher

    2011-08-01

    Although it is well established that performance is influenced by competitive pressure, our understanding of the mechanisms which underlie the pressure-performance relationship is limited. The current experiment examined mediators of the relationship between competitive pressure and motor skill performance of experts. Psychological, physiological, and kinematic responses to three levels of competitive pressure were measured in 50 expert golfers, during a golf putting task. Elevated competitive pressure increased putting accuracy, anxiety, effort, and heart rate, but decreased grip force. Quadratic effects of pressure were noted for self-reported conscious processing and impact velocity. Mediation analyses revealed that effort and heart rate partially mediated improved performance. The findings indicate that competitive pressure elicits effects on expert performance through both psychological and physiological pathways. PMID:21265862

  20. Use of expert judgment in exposure assessment. Part I. Characterization of personal exposure to benzene.

    PubMed

    Walker, K D; Evans, J S; MacIntosh, D

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the first phase of a study, conducted as an element of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS), to demonstrate the use of expert subjective judgment elicitation techniques to characterize the magnitude of and uncertainty in environmental exposure to benzene. In decisions about the value of exposure research or of regulatory controls, the characterization of uncertainty can play an influential role. Classical methods for characterizing uncertainty may be sufficient when adequate amounts of relevant data are available. Frequently, however, data are neither abundant nor directly relevant, making it necessary to rely to varying degrees on subjective judgment. Since the 1950s, methods to elicit and quantify subjective judgments have been explored but have rarely been applied to the field of environmental exposure assessment. In this phase of the project, seven experts in benzene exposure assessment were selected through a peer nomination process, participated in a 2-day workshop, and were interviewed individually to elicit their judgments about the distributions of residential ambient, residential indoor, and personal air benzene concentrations (6-day integrated average) experienced by both the non-smoking, non-occupationally exposed target and study populations of the US EPA Region V pilot study. Specifically, each expert was asked to characterize, in probabilistic form, the arithmetic means and the 90th percentiles of these distributions. This paper presents the experts' judgments about the concentrations of benzene encountered by the target population. The experts' judgments about levels of benzene in personal air were demonstrative of patterns observed in the judgments about the other distributions. They were in closest agreement about their predictions of the mean; with one exception, their best estimates of the mean fell within 7-11 microg/m(3) although they exhibited striking differences in the degree of

  1. Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-01-01

    It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

  2. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1

  3. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  4. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  5. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  6. Graph transformation expert system (GTES)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Guiquing; Ge, Qihong; Zhong, Luo; Xie, Weiping

    1996-03-01

    The design of many industrial and engineering systems can often be accomplished using flow graphs of various types. Examples include manufacturing processes and data processing applications, Graph Transformation Expert System, is an expert system which has been developed by WUT for applying techniques of artificial intelligence to the architectural design of data and signal processing systems. Software and hardware architectures may be defined for such systems using data flow graphs, in which nodes represent data processing steps and directed areas represent the `flow' of data between the processing steps. Starting with a user- defined generic processing graphic, this expert will transform the graph by applying transformation rules in order to specialize the processing graph to satisfy specified design goals and/or hardware constraints. Although the particular application for which this expert is designed is that of data and signal processing systems, it can provide an expert system framework for other problems specified graphically; for example, manufacturing systems, information systems, and product distribution systems.

  7. Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-06-01

    It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

  8. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; McCall, Kurt E.

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  9. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  10. The Development of Expert Face Processing: Are Infants Sensitive to Normal Differences in Second-Order Relational Information?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayden, Angela; Bhatt, Ramesh S.; Reed, Andrea; Corbly, Christine R.; Joseph, Jane E.

    2007-01-01

    Sensitivity to second-order relational information (i.e., spatial relations among features such as the distance between eyes) is a vital part of achieving expertise with face processing. Prior research is unclear on whether infants are sensitive to second-order differences seen in typical human populations. In the current experiments, we examined…

  11. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  12. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  13. The diagnosis of microcytic anemia by a rule-based expert system using VP-Expert.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, M L; McKinney, T

    1989-09-01

    We describe our experience in creating a rule-based expert system for the interpretation of microcytic anemia using the expert system development tool, VP-Expert, running on an IBM personal computer. VP-Expert processes data (complete blood cell count results, age, and sex) according to a set of user-written logic rules (our program) to reach conclusions as to the following causes of microcytic anemia: alpha- and beta-thalassemia trait, iron deficiency, and anemia of chronic disease. Our expert system was tested using previously interpreted complete blood cell count data. In most instances, there was good agreement between the expert system and its pathologist-author, but many discrepancies were found in the interpretation of anemia of chronic disease. We conclude that VP-Expert has a useful level of power and flexibility, yet is simple enough that individuals with modest programming experience can create their own expert systems. Limitations of such expert systems are discussed. PMID:2774865

  14. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  15. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  16. The Expert Witness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

    1975-01-01

    As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

  17. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert panel is the first step in the process... expert panel member may not be an FDA employee. (4) A qualified expert panel must have at least three... panel meets the selection criteria listed in paragraphs (b)(1) through (b)(5) of this section. (3)...

  18. Getting Started in Library Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borko, Harold

    1987-01-01

    Describes a microcomputer-based expert system, MAPPER, which is being developed to help catalog maps by employing the cognitive processes used by catalogers in applying Anglo American Cataloging Rules, 2nd edition (AACR2). The design process is reviewed, including the choice of a model expert system, MYCIN, and a software package, EXSYS.…

  19. Knowledge acquisition for a simple expert controller

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bieker, B.

    1987-01-01

    A method is presented for process control which has the properties of being incremental, cyclic and top-down. It is described on the basis of the development of an expert controller for a simple, but nonlinear control route. A quality comparison between expert controller and process operator shows the ability of the method for knowledge acquisition.

  20. Expert witness reform.

    PubMed

    Horton, J Bauer; Reece, Edward; Janis, Jeffrey E; Broughton, George; Hollier, Larry; Thornton, James F; Kenkel, Jeffrey M; Rohrich, Rod J

    2007-12-01

    The legal system depends on the medical expert for evidence. Doctors readily complain about frivolous cases that go to trial, yet a lawyer cannot bring a frivolous claim to trial without a physician expert witness stating that the claim is not frivolous. An insurance company cannot raise premiums without medical expert witnesses servicing the increasing litigation against the insured. Physicians must look to themselves as a major contributor to rising malpractice insurance costs. For without the physician expert witness, no medical malpractice lawsuit can take place. It is the expert physician, not the attorneys or insurance companies, who defines "meritless" and "frivolous" and who ultimately controls the courts' medical malpractice caseload. PMID:18090781

  1. Confessions and expert testimony.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Kenneth J

    2003-01-01

    In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice. PMID:14974801

  2. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. ); Jackson, J.R. )

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  3. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  4. Expert status and performance.

    PubMed

    Burgman, Mark A; McBride, Marissa; Ashton, Raquel; Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Flander, Louisa; Wintle, Bonnie; Fidler, Fiona; Rumpff, Libby; Twardy, Charles

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback. PMID:21829574

  5. Expert Status and Performance

    PubMed Central

    Burgman, Mark A.; McBride, Marissa; Ashton, Raquel; Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Flander, Louisa; Wintle, Bonnie; Fidler, Fiona; Rumpff, Libby; Twardy, Charles

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback. PMID:21829574

  6. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Кorchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min’kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  7. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    SciTech Connect

    Wegerich, Stephan

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component has degraded.

  8. The use of fuzzy control system methods for characterizing expert judgment uncertainty distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.E.; Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Parkinson, W.J.; Meyer, M.A.; Jamshidi, M.

    1998-12-01

    Fuzzy logic methods permit experts to assess parameters affecting performance of components/systems in natural language terms more familiar to them (e.g., high, good, etc.). Recognizing that there is a cost associated with obtaining more precise information, the authors particular interest is in cases where the relationship between the condition of the system and its performance is not well understood, especially for some sets of possible operating conditions, and where developing a better understanding is very difficult and/or expensive. The methods allow the experts to make use of the level of precision with which they understand the underlying process. The authors consider and compare various methods of formulating the process just described, with an application in reliability analysis where expert information forms a significant (if not sole) source of data for reliability analysis. The flow of information through the fuzzy-control-systems based analysis is studied using a simple, hypothetical problem which mimics the structure used to elicit expert information in Parse. They also characterize the effect of using progressively more refined information and examine the use of fuzzy-based methods as data pooling/fusion mechanisms.

  9. Conceptual design and analysis methodology for knowledge acquisition for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Adiga, S.

    1986-01-01

    The field analysis of Artificial Intelligence, particularly expert systems, has been identified by experts as a technology with the most promise for handling complex information processing needs of modern manufacturing systems. Knowledge acquisition or the process of building the knowledge base for expert systems needs precise and well-formulated methods to pass from being an art to theory. This research in a step in that direction. The approach evolves at the conceptual level from Pask's work on conversation theory which provides the minimal structural requirement for development and validation of the method. An integrated approach is developed with guidelines for structured knowledge elicitation, analysis, and mapping of the verbal data into well-defined object-oriented generic knowledge structures capable of representing both structural and operational knowledge. The research extends and blends the concepts of protocol analysis, object-oriented design, and semantic data modeling into an integrated framework. This methodology, being a domain-independent development, theoretically can be used to acquire knowledge for any expert performance system.

  10. Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, L L; Gustafson, D H; Antognoli, M C; Remmenga, M D

    2013-04-01

    Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments. PMID:23270791

  11. CONSTRUAL PROCESSES IN PREFERENCE ELICITATION. (R824706)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  12. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  13. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R; Carroll, Thomas E; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A; Unwin, Stephen D; Hossain, Shamina S

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  14. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  15. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W.; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills. PMID:25206348

  16. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  17. Using Expert Systems For Computational Tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duke, Eugene L.; Regenie, Victoria A.; Brazee, Marylouise; Brumbaugh, Randal W.

    1990-01-01

    Transformation technique enables inefficient expert systems to run in real time. Paper suggests use of knowledge compiler to transform knowledge base and inference mechanism of expert-system computer program into conventional computer program. Main benefit, faster execution and reduced processing demands. In avionic systems, transformation reduces need for special-purpose computers.

  18. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  19. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  20. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-11-08

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - `expert elicitation.` This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal.

  1. Ethical Expert Systems

    PubMed Central

    Victoroff, Michael S.

    1985-01-01

    The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

  2. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  3. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  4. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ``team`` of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.

  5. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.

  6. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  7. Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sary, Charisse; Gilstrap, Lewey; Hull, Larry G.

    1990-01-01

    The Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM) provides an approach to developing expert system software. Because of the uncertainty associated with this process, an element of risk is involved. ESDM is designed to address the issue of risk and to acquire the information needed for this purpose in an evolutionary manner. ESDM presents a life cycle in which a prototype evolves through five stages of development. Each stage consists of five steps, leading to a prototype for that stage. Development may proceed to a conventional development methodology (CDM) at any time if enough has been learned about the problem to write requirements. ESDM produces requirements so that a product may be built with a CDM. ESDM is considered preliminary because is has not yet been applied to actual projects. It has been retrospectively evaluated by comparing the methods used in two ongoing expert system development projects that did not explicitly choose to use this methodology but which provided useful insights into actual expert system development practices and problems.

  8. Benchmarking expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1988-01-01

    As part of its evaluation of new technologies, the Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis Div. at NASA-Johnson has made timing tests of several expert system building tools. Among the production systems tested were Automated Reasoning Tool, several versions of OPS5, and CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System), an expert system builder developed by the AI section. Also included in the test were a Zetalisp version of the benchmark along with four versions of the benchmark written in Knowledge Engineering Environment, an object oriented, frame based expert system tool. The benchmarks used for testing are studied.

  9. Towards reasoning visualization in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1989-01-01

    Preliminary results are presented of ongoing research to develop visualization paradigms for expert systems reasoning processes. The results are based in part on a prototype implementation that is being developed to visualize the reasoning processes of a rule-based forward chaining expert system. The research is based on the premise that the presentation of information at the highest applicable conceptual level will enhance the assimilation of that information. Hierarchical levels in both the syntactic and semantic levels of reasoning in expert systems are described in detail.

  10. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.