Science.gov

Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison

    SciTech Connect

    Dalton, Angela C.; Brothers, Alan J.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Whitney, Paul D.

    2010-09-21

    Research on integrative modeling has gained considerable attention in recent years and expert opinion has been increasingly recognized as an important data source and modeling contributor. However, little research has systematically compared and evaluated expert elicitation methods in terms of their ability to link to computational models that capture human behavior and social phenomena. In this paper, we describe a decision-making process we used for evaluating and selecting a task specific elicitation method within the framework of integrative computational social-behavioral modeling. From the existing literature, we identified the characteristics of problems that each candidate method is well suited to address. A small-scale expert elicitation was also conducted to evaluate the comparative strength and weaknesses of the methods against a number of consensus-based decision criteria. By developing a set of explicit method evaluation criteria and a description characterizing decision problems for the candidate methods, we seek to gain a better understanding of the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of integrating elicitation methods with computational modeling techniques. This serves an important first step toward expanding our research effort and trajectory toward greater interdisciplinary modeling research of human behavior.

  2. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  3. Learning from Expert Elicitation in Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, M. G.

    2009-12-01

    Since the early 1990's the author has been involved in the design and execution of six detailed expert elicitations that, among other things, have obtained subjective judgments from experts that reflect their best judgment in the form of subjective probability density functions, about the value of key climate variables, climate impacts and a technology for mitigation (Morgan and Keith, 1995; Morgan Pitelka and Shevliakova, 2001; Morgan, Adams and Keith, 2006; Zickfeld et al, 2007; Curtright, Morgan and Keith, 2008; Zickfeld, Morgan Keith and Frame, in review). This paper builds on that experience to draw insights about the design and use of expert elicitation in the assessment and analysis of climate change and its impacts. Several trends in responses will be noted. Methodological pitfalls will be discussed. Comparisons will be drawn with the consensus-based methods employed by IPCC, which appear to have produced tighter uncertainty bounds than individual elicitation. The paper will close with thoughts on the possible use of expert elicitation in future IPCC assessments. Support for this work is from the Climate Decision Making Center through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation (SES-0345798) and Carnegie Mellon University. References: M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts," Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), 468A-476A, October 1995. M. Granger Morgan, Louis F. Pitelka and Elena Shevliakova, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems," Climatic Change, 49, 279-307, 2001. M. Granger Morgan, Peter Adams, and David W. Keith, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing," Climatic Change, 75, 195-214, 2006. Kirsten Zickfeld, Anders Levermann, Till Kuhlbrodt. Stefan Rahmstorf, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Judgements on the Response on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Climate Change," Climatic Change, 82, 235-265, 2007. Aimee Curtright, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Assessment of Future Photovoltaic Technology, " Environmental Science & Technology, 42(24), 2008. Kirsten Zickfeld, M. Granger Morgan , David Frame, David W. Keith, "Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing," in review at PNAS.

  4. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

    SciTech Connect

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R. )

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel.

  5. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  6. Eliciting and using expert knowledge in metrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Hagan, Anthony

    2014-08-01

    The expression of uncertainty has hitherto been seen as an add-on—first an estimate is obtained and then uncertainty in that estimate is evaluated. We argue that quantification of uncertainty should be an intrinsic part of measurement and that the measurement result should be a probability distribution for the measurand. Full quantification of uncertainties in measurement, recognizing and quantifying all sources of uncertainty, is rarely simple. Many potential sources of uncertainty can effectively only be quantified by the application of expert judgement. Scepticism about the validity or reliability of expert judgement has meant that these sources of uncertainty have often been overlooked, ignored or treated in a qualitative, narrative way. But the consequence of this is that reported expressions of uncertainty regularly understate the true degree of uncertainty in measurements. This article first discusses the concept of quantifying uncertainty in measurement, and then considers some of the areas where expert judgement is needed in order to quantify fully the uncertainties in measurement. The remainder of the article is devoted to describing methodology for eliciting expert knowledge.

  7. Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

    PubMed

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C; Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty. PMID:26610972

  8. Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Gosling, John Paul

    2013-02-01

    The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts' knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.

  9. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert judgment has led to an improved acceptance of expert judgment because of the rigor and transparency of the results.

  10. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  11. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  12. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ``specialists``), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel.

  13. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite some known criticism on its validity, formal expert elicitation can support environmental health research in various ways. Its main purpose is to provide a temporary summary of the limited available knowledge, which can serve as a provisional basis for policy until further research has been carried out. PMID:20420657

  14. PROBES: a framework for probability elicitation from experts.

    PubMed Central

    Lau, A. H.; Leong, T. Y.

    1999-01-01

    A decision analytic model represents uncertainties as probability distributions. These distributions are hard to assess especially for large and dynamic models. We propose an integrated framework that facilitates elicitation of the relevant probability distributions for dynamic decision models from the domain experts. The experts usually use some judgmental heuristics to aid probability assessments; the resulting distributions may be proned to cognitive biases. Our framework aims to minimize the effects of these biases and to improve the quality of decisions made. We have implemented a prototype system of the framework and evaluated its effectiveness via a case study in the follow-up management of colorectal cancer patients after curative surgery. Preliminary results demonstrate the practical promise of the framework. Images Figure 4 PMID:10566369

  15. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of elicitation methodology and the implications of our results for further work at the BGS to quantify uncertainty in 2d and 3d products. In particular we will consider the impacts of surveyor 'experience' in how the elicitation process works.

  16. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of elicitation is to extract this model in a useable, quantitative, form by a robust and transparent procedure. At BGS expert elicitation is being used to evaluate the uncertainty of mapped boundaries in different common mapping scenarios, with a view to building a 'collective' understanding of the challenges each scenario presents. For example, a 'sharp contact (at surface) between highly contrasting sedimentary rocks' represents one level of survey challenge that should be accurately met by all surveyors, even novices. In contrast, a 'transitional boundary defined by localised facies-variation' may require much more experience to resolve (without recourse to significantly more sampling). We will describe the initial phase of this exercise in which uncertainty models were elicited for mapped boundaries in six contrasting scenarios. Each scenario was presented to a panel of experts with varied expertise and career history. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model, in a sixth case experts with different experience took different views of the nature of the mapping problem. We will discuss our experience of the use of elicitation methodology and the implications of our results for further work at the BGS to quantify uncertainty in map products. In particular we will consider the value of elicitation as a means to capture the expertise of individuals as they retire, and as the composition of the organization's staff changes in response to the management and policy decisions.

  17. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

  18. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  19. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods. PMID:26610964

  20. Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

    SciTech Connect

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

    1996-11-01

    Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE`s license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE`s experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC`s geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs.

  1. EXPERT ELICITATION OF ACROSS-TECHNOLOGY CORRELATIONS FOR REACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

    SciTech Connect

    Brent Dixon; Various

    2014-06-01

    Calculations of the uncertainty in the Levelized Cost at Equilibrium (LCAE) of generating nuclear electricity typically assume that the costs of the system component, notably reactors, are uncorrelated. Partial cancellation of independent errors thus gives rise to unrealistically small cost uncertainties for fuel cycles that incorporate multiple reactor technologies. This summary describes an expert elicitation of correlations between overnight reactor construction costs. It also defines a method for combining the elicitations into a single, consistent correlation matrix suitable for use in Monte Carlo LCAE calculations. Both the elicitation and uncertainty propagation methods are demonstrated through a pilot study where cost correlations between eight reactor technologies were elicited from experts in the US DOE Fuel Cycle Research

  2. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote elicitation of multiple, internationally-dispersed panels. PMID:26930595

  3. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  4. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  5. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  6. Elicitation of Expert Prior Opinion: Application to the MYPAN Trial in Childhood Polyarteritis Nodosa

    PubMed Central

    Hampson, Lisa V.; Whitehead, John; Eleftheriou, Despina; Tudur-Smith, Catrin; Jones, Rachel; Jayne, David; Hickey, Helen; Beresford, Michael W.; Bracaglia, Claudia; Caldas, Afonso; Cimaz, Rolando; Dehoorne, Joke; Dolezalova, Pavla; Friswell, Mark; Jelusic, Marija; Marks, Stephen D.; Martin, Neil; McMahon, Anne-Marie; Peitz, Joachim; van Royen-Kerkhof, Annet; Soylemezoglu, Oguz; Brogan, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa). Methods A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis. Results A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available. Conclusions We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases. PMID:25822991

  7. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  8. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  9. Expert elicitation of the value per statistical life in an air pollution context.

    PubMed

    Roman, Henry A; Hammitt, James K; Walsh, Tyra L; Stieb, David M

    2012-12-01

    The monetized value of avoided premature mortality typically dominates the calculated benefits of air pollution regulations; therefore, characterization of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates is key to good policymaking. Formal expert judgment elicitation methods are one means of characterizing this uncertainty. They have been applied to characterize uncertainty in the mortality concentration-response function, but have yet to be used to characterize uncertainty in the economic values placed on avoided mortality. We report the findings of a pilot expert judgment study for Health Canada designed to elicit quantitative probabilistic judgments of uncertainties in Value-per-Statistical-Life (VSL) estimates for use in an air pollution context. The two-stage elicitation addressed uncertainties in both a base case VSL for a reduction in mortality risk from traumatic accidents and in benefits transfer-related adjustments to the base case for an air quality application (e.g., adjustments for age, income, and health status). Results for each expert were integrated to develop example quantitative probabilistic uncertainty distributions for VSL that could be incorporated into air quality models. PMID:22571466

  10. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  11. Evaluation of a structured expert elicitation estimating the proportion of illness acquired by foodborne transmission for nine enteric pathogens in Australia.

    PubMed

    Vally, H; Glass, K; Ford, L; Hall, G; Kirk, M D; Shadbolt, C; Veitch, M G K; Fullerton, K E; Musto, J; Becker, N

    2016-04-01

    Estimates of the proportion of illness transmitted by food for different enteric pathogens are essential for foodborne burden-of-disease studies. Owing to insufficient scientific data, a formal synthesis of expert opinion, an expert elicitation, is commonly used to produce such estimates. Eleven experts participated in an elicitation to estimate the proportion of illnesses due to food in Australia for nine pathogens over three rounds: first, based on their own knowledge alone; second, after being provided with systematic reviews of the literature and Australian data; and finally, at a workshop where experts reflected on the evidence. Estimates changed significantly across the three rounds (P = 0·002) as measured by analysis of variance. Following the workshop in round 3, estimates showed smoother distributions with significantly less variation for several pathogens. When estimates were combined to provide combined distributions for each pathogen, the width of these combined distributions reflected experts' perceptions of the availability of evidence, with narrower intervals for pathogens for which evidence was judged to be strongest. Our findings show that the choice of expert elicitation process can significantly influence final estimates. Our structured process - and the workshop in particular - produced robust estimates and distributions appropriate for inclusion in burden-of-disease studies. PMID:26455517

  12. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-08-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community.

  13. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  14. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. PMID:16506972

  15. Expert Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Catherine Q.; Prajna, N. Venkatesh; Krishnan, Tiruvengada; Mascarenhas, Jeena; Rajaraman, Revathi; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Raghavan, Anita; O'Brien, Kieran S.; Ray, Kathryn J.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Porco, Travis C.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Lietman, Thomas M.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I (MUTT I) using expert opinion as a prior belief. Methods. MUTT I was a randomized clinical trial comparing topical natamycin or voriconazole for treating filamentous fungal keratitis. A questionnaire elicited expert opinion on the best treatment of fungal keratitis before MUTT I results were available. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the questionnaire data as a prior belief and the MUTT I primary outcome (3-month visual acuity) by frequentist analysis as a likelihood. Results. Corneal experts had a 41.1% prior belief that natamycin improved 3-month visual acuity compared with voriconazole. The Bayesian analysis found a 98.4% belief for natamycin treatment compared with voriconazole treatment for filamentous cases as a group (mean improvement 1.1 Snellen lines, 95% credible interval 0.1–2.1). The Bayesian analysis estimated a smaller treatment effect than the MUTT I frequentist analysis result of 1.8-line improvement with natamycin versus voriconazole (95% confidence interval 0.5–3.0, P = 0.006). For Fusarium cases, the posterior demonstrated a 99.7% belief for natamycin treatment, whereas non-Fusarium cases had a 57.3% belief. Conclusions. The Bayesian analysis suggests that natamycin is superior to voriconazole when filamentous cases are analyzed as a group. Subgroup analysis of Fusarium cases found improvement with natamycin compared with voriconazole, whereas there was almost no difference between treatments for non-Fusarium cases. These results were consistent with, though smaller in effect size than, the MUTT I primary outcome by frequentist analysis. The accordance between analyses further validates the trial results. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00996736.) PMID:23702779

  16. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops.

    PubMed

    Krayer von Krauss, Martin P; Casman, Elizabeth A; Small, Mitchell J

    2004-12-01

    One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems. PMID:15660608

  17. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

  18. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This study is part of the FuturAgua project funded by the Belmont Freshwater Security call. The expert opinions on expected changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern are being used to inform regional efforts to build drought resilience and to create and compare alternative water management strategies with the region's stakeholders.

  19. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  20. Policy relevant results from an expert elicitation on the health risks of phthalates

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The EU 6th Framework Program (FP)-funded Health and Environment Network (HENVINET) aimed to support informed policy making by facilitating the availability of relevant knowledge on different environmental health issues. An approach was developed by which scientific agreement, disagreement, and knowledge gaps could be efficiently identified, and expert advice prepared in a way that is usable for policy makers. There were two aims of the project: 1) to apply the tool to a relevant issue; the potential health impacts of the widely used plasticizers, phthalates, and 2) to evaluate the method and the tool by asking both scientific experts and the target audience, namely policy makers and stakeholders, for their opinions. Methods The tool consisted of an expert consultation in several steps on the issue of phthalates in environmental health. A diagram depicting the cause-effect chain, from the production and use of phthalates to potential health impacts, was prepared based on existing reviews. This was used as a basis for an online questionnaire, through which experts in the field were consulted. The results of this first round of consultation laid the foundation for a new questionnaire answered by an expert panel that, subsequently, also discussed approaches and results in a workshop. One major task of the expert panel was to pinpoint priorities from the cause-effect chain according to their impact on the extent of potential health risks and their relevance for reducing uncertainty. The results were condensed into a policy brief that was sent to policy makers and stakeholders for their evaluation. Results The experts agreed about the substantial knowledge gaps within the field of phthalates. The top three priorities for further research and policy action were: 1) intrauterine exposure, 2) reproductive toxicology, and 3) exposure from medical devices. Although not all relevant information from the cause-effect chain is known for phthalates, most experts thought that there are enough indications to justify a precautionary approach and to restrict their general use. Although some of the experts expressed some scepticism about such a tool, most felt that important issues were highlighted. Conclusions The approach used was an efficient way at summarising priority knowledge gaps as a starting point for health risk assessment of compounds, based on their relevance for the risk assessment outcome. We conclude that this approach is useful for supporting policy makers with state-of-the-art scientific knowledge weighed by experts. The method can assist future evidence-based policy making. PMID:22759506

  1. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M. ); Hora, S.C. )

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs.

  2. Timing and magnitude of CO2 and CH4 release from the permafrost region: an expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Schuur, E. A.; Jones, J.; Permafrost Carbon RCN Group

    2011-12-01

    Permafrost contains more than twice as much carbon as currently exists in the atmosphere. As temperature increases and permafrost is lost, a portion of this carbon pool will be released as CO2 and CH4, however, the rate and magnitude of this release is highly uncertain. In June of 2011 we administered an expert elicitation survey at the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network Synthesis Workshop in Seattle. The 43 permafrost, carbon, and climate experts were asked to estimate the magnitude of permafrost degradation and subsequent CO2 and CH4 release in response to four arctic and boreal warming scenarios, adapted from the most recent IPCC radiative forcing scenarios. We asked respondents to quantitatively estimate permafrost loss and net change in permafrost-region soil carbon, as well as to provide a qualitative self-rating of their confidence and relevant expertise concerning each question. Because direct measurements of arctic carbon fluxes are scarce and the quantity and distribution of soil carbon in the arctic is only coarsely characterized, expert elicitation methods allowed us to integrate results from both field and modeling research efforts, and to measure consensus and quantify uncertainty concerning the activation of the pan-arctic permafrost carbon pool. Results indicate rapid permafrost loss and substantial carbon release by the end of the century for even modest warming scenarios-between 56 and 193 Pg of cumulative carbon release by 2100 depending on the magnitude of warming. Under the current warming trajectory, the permafrost region will soon become one of the largest ecosystem sources of green house gases.

  3. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from permafrost region soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert elicitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Jones, J.; Schuur, E. A.; Bowden, W. B.; Chapin, F. S., III; Epstein, H. E.; Flannigan, M.; Harms, T.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Mack, M. C.; Natali, S.; Rocha, A. V.; Tank, S. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Vonk, J.; Wickland, K.

    2013-12-01

    As the permafrost region warms, up to 288 Pg carbon (CO2 equivalent) may be released from soil by the end of the century, and up to 616 Pg by 2300. This soil carbon can be released to the atmosphere directly via mineralization or wildfire, or enter aquatic ecosystems as dissolved or particulate organic or inorganic carbon. Some models predict an increase in Arctic and boreal living biomass in response to extended growing season, enhanced nutrient cycling, and CO2 fertilization, but we have a poor understanding of how the production of new biomass will compare with loss of carbon from permafrost thaw. We administered surveys to permafrost region experts to assess current understanding of the magnitude and timing of biomass accumulation, hydrologic carbon flux, and wildfire carbon losses. Surveys addressed three time periods (present to 2040, 2100, and 2300) and four warming scenarios based on IPCC representative concentration pathways. Estimates of change in biomass and fire losses were provided individually for the boreal forest and arctic tundra. Experts estimated changes in carbon delivery to freshwater ecosystems as well as delivery to the ocean, including carbon release due to coastal erosion, fluxes infrequently captured in high-latitude models. Initial expert estimates indicated that while tundra biomass would increase substantially, total permafrost region biomass would decrease by the end of the century due to boreal forest drying and browning, followed by a modest increase by 2300 due to vegetation community shifts. Changes in aquatic systems could release an additional 2.7 Pg carbon by 2100 and 7.3 Pg by 2300. Modified wildfire regime could cause the release of an additional 13.6 Pg carbon by 2100 and 51.7 Pg by 2300. Current expert understanding therefore suggests that carbon gains in high-latitude biomass will be orders of magnitude smaller than carbon loss from permafrost soils and that hydrologic and wildfire pathways of carbon loss will likely accelerate carbon mobilization from permafrost region ecosystems.

  4. The NASA personnel security processing expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Silberberg, D.; Thomas, R.

    1996-12-31

    The NASA Personnel Security Processing Expert System is a tool that automatically determines the appropriate personnel background investigation required for a civil servant or contractor occupying a position of national security or public trust. It also instructs the personnel security processing staff to perform special checks based on a specific position. The system is implemented using a rule-based expert system and a World Wide Web interface. The system design separates the user interface, knowledge base and control structure to simplify system evolution. When one subsystem is modified, the others are impacted minimally. This system provides many benefits to the NASA Personnel Security Program. First, it frees the agency personnel security specialist from trouble-shooting and correcting all investigative problems. It also provides a learning tool for security processing staff at each installation. The system ensures that each installation security office is in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and policies. Finally, eliminating overlapping, inappropriate and duplicative efforts to process employees saves many resources. The system was deployed less than a year ago. To date, it saved $1.2 million of the $1.5 million agency-wide personnel security budget.

  5. Policy relevant Results from an Expert Elicitation on the Human Health Risks of Decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) and Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Aim Apply a recently developed expert elicitation procedure to evaluate the state of the current knowledge of the two brominated flame retardants (BFRs) most commonly used today; decabromo-diphenyl ether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and their potential impact on human health in order to support policy considerations. This expert elicitation was organized by the HENVINET (Health and Environment Network) Consortium. Method The HENVINET expert elicitation procedure that was used in the evaluations of decaBDE and HBCD is a rapid assessment tool aimed at highlighting areas of agreement and areas of disagreement on knowledge-related key issues for environment and health policy decision making. Results The outcome of the expert consultation on BFRs was concrete expert advice for policy makers with specific priorities for further action made clear for both stakeholders and policy makers. The experts were not in agreement whether or not the knowledge currently available on decaBDE or HBCD is sufficient to justify policy actions, but most experts considered that enough data already exists to support a ban or restriction on the use of these compounds. All experts agreed on the necessity of more research on the compounds. Priority issues for further research were, among others: ‱ more studies on the extent of human exposure to the compounds. ‱ more studies on the fate and concentration in the human body of the compounds. PMID:22759507

  6. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  7. EXPERT ELICITATION WHITE PAPER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA is frequently called upon to make decisions on complex environmental issues, and to make these decisions, analyses are required from a broad range of disciplines. In all of these analyses, uncertainty and variability exist in estimates of the values of key parameters and...

  8. [Drafting expert opinion reports in medical liability processes].

    PubMed

    Ulsenheimer, K

    2011-12-01

    In a medical liability process a medical expert takes on an outstanding position. He is the one process participant who preprograms the decision of the judge. However, he does not as such have an independent investigative competence and must understand his role as being an accessory to the judge. In view of this key role, the necessary expert competence and a basic legal knowledge, adequate preparation for the assignment and a meticulous study of the case file are indispensible. According to § 839 paragraph 1 of the German Civil Code (Bürgerliches Gesetzbuch, BGB) an expert witness nominated by a court of law is liable to compensate damages if he writes an incorrect expert opinion either deliberately or due to gross negligence. The expert witness must also be objective and unprejudiced towards the parties involved or the accused/defendant. Civil processes and criminal proceedings both have legal peculiarities which the expert witness must bear in mind. The foundation of the function as an expert witness in a civil process is the order of the court to take evidence which the expert must adhere to. In this case the parties must be considered as being equal before the law. In contrast the procedure in criminal processes follows the principle of official investigation and the absolute principle of in dubio pro reo. From this it follows that the evidence of causality must be proven with a probability close to certainty. Advice for the construction of expert opinion statements can be found in this article. PMID:22146837

  9. Expert model process control of composite materials in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    An expert model for the control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using the PC PLUS expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol-crunching capability of LISP and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The Expert Model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  10. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  11. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  12. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

    1987-01-01

    The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

  13. Expert elicitation as a means to attribute 28 enteric pathogens to foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, and person-to-person transmission routes in Canada.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-04-01

    Enteric illness contributes to a significant burden of illness in Canada and globally. Understanding its sources is a critical step in identifying and preventing health risks. Expert elicitation is a powerful tool, used previously, to obtain information about enteric illness source attribution where information is difficult or expensive to obtain. Thirty-one experts estimated transmission of 28 pathogens via major transmission routes (foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, person-to-person, and other) at the point of consumption. The elicitation consisted of a (snowball) recruitment phase; administration of a pre-survey to collect background information, an introductory webinar, an elicitation survey, a 1-day discussion, survey readministration, and a feedback exercise, and surveys were administered online. Experts were prompted to quantify changes in contamination at the point of entry into the kitchen versus point of consumption. Estimates were combined via triangular probability distributions, and medians and 90% credible-interval estimates were produced. Transmission was attributed primarily to food for Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Trichinella spp., all three Vibrio spp. categories explored, and Yersinia enterocolitica. Multisource pathogens (e.g., transmitted commonly through both water and food) such as Campylobacter spp., four Escherichia coli categories, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were also estimated as mostly foodborne. Water was the primary pathway for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp., and person-to-person transmission dominated for six enteric viruses and Shigella spp. Consideration of the point of attribution highlighted the importance of food handling and cross-contamination in the transmission pathway. This study provides source attribution estimates of enteric illness for Canada, considering all possible transmission routes. Further research is necessary to improve our understanding of poorly characterized pathogens such as sapovirus and E. coli subgroups in Canada. PMID:25835810

  14. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions, depending on their experience in the region. The size of the 19 hazard-specific panels ranged from 6 to 15 persons with several experts serving on more than one panel. Pathogens with animal reservoirs (e.g. non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Toxoplasma gondii) were in general assessed by the experts to have a higher proportion of illnesses attributable to food than pathogens with mainly a human reservoir, where human-to-human transmission (e.g. Shigella spp. and Norovirus) or waterborne transmission (e.g. Salmonella Typhi and Vibrio cholerae) were judged to dominate. For many pathogens, the foodborne route was assessed relatively more important in developed subregions than in developing subregions. The main exposure routes for lead varied across subregions, with the foodborne route being assessed most important only in two subregions of the European region. Conclusions For the first time, we present worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific diseases attributable to food and other major transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives. PMID:26784029

  15. An expert system for natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hennessy, John F.

    1988-01-01

    A solution to the natural language processing problem that uses a rule based system, written in OPS5, to replace the traditional parsing method is proposed. The advantage to using a rule based system are explored. Specifically, the extensibility of a rule based solution is discussed as well as the value of maintaining rules that function independently. Finally, the power of using semantics to supplement the syntactic analysis of a sentence is considered.

  16. Electrophysiological correlates of aesthetic music processing: comparing experts with laypersons.

    PubMed

    Müller, Mira; Höfel, Lea; Brattico, Elvira; Jacobsen, Thomas

    2009-07-01

    We analyzed the processes of making aesthetic judgments of music, focusing on the differences between music experts and laypersons. Sixteen students of musicology and 16 control subjects (also students) judged the aesthetic value as well as the harmonic correctness of chord sequences. Event-related potential (ERP) data indicate differences between experts and laypersons in making aesthetic judgments at three different processing stages. Additionally, effects of expertise on ERP components that have previously been proven to be sensitive to musical training were replicated. The study thus provides insights into the effects of musical expertise on neural correlates of aesthetic music processing. PMID:19673807

  17. Process Diagnosis Expert System Using First Principles and Functional Component

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-11-24

    PRODIAG is an expert system that performs online diagnosis of faulty components in thermal hydraulic processes. Given measurements of temperatures, pressure, flows, and liquid levels, PRODIAG identifies the possible faulty component candidates at the process level. It is a stand alone code, but can be used in conjunction with a component level program to distinguish among the possible faulty component candidates.

  18. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  19. The impact of new data on an expert elicitation of the probability of volcanic intersection of the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, F. V.; Jenni, K. E.; Neiman, T.; Coppersmith, K.

    2008-12-01

    An expert elicitation completed in 1996 estimated the frequency of intersection by a dike of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. That assessment resulted in a mean annual frequency of intersection of 1.7e -8, or about 1 chance in 60 million per year. The expert panel primarily considered the past 5 million years of volcanic history when estimating the probability of intersection, and included in their assessment the possibility that at least a few volcanic centers were buried in alluvial basins near Yucca Mountain. The results of a regional aeromagnetic survey completed in 1999 suggested the potential for a higher number of buried volcanic centers than previously considered in the 1996 elicitation. Therefore, a new expert elicitation was convened in 2004 with the primary purpose of assessing the impact of buried volcanic centers on probability estimates. A major data-gathering effort completed in 2006 provided high-resolution aeromagnetic, drilling, and geochronology results that provided information on the number, location and age of buried basaltic centers near Yucca Mountain. Most buried basalt was determined to be of Miocene age. The youngest group of buried volcanic centers, 20-25 km south of Yucca Mountain, has an age of about 3.9 Ma. These results indicate that post-Miocene basaltic volcanism only occurred to the south and west of Yucca Mountain and not to the east, an important constraint in models that forecast the potential location of future volcanism. Other new data considered included the characteristics of dike swarms based on analog volcanoes, variations in crustal extension across the region, mantle tomography, and differences in calculated lithostatic pressure between basins and ranges. The new distribution for the annual frequency of intersection (5th and 95th percentiles of ~6e -10 and 1e -7) overlaps the 1996 distribution but is broader with more weight at both higher and lower values. This results in a slightly higher mean value and a slightly lower median value. The results are consistent with consideration of a broader range of conceptual models for the spatial and temporal behavior of volcanism, as well as more complex models of the geometry of volcanic events, all influenced in part by availability of new data.

  20. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  1. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  2. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  3. Differential Elicitation of Two Processing Proteases Controls the Processing Pattern of the Trypsin Proteinase Inhibitor Precursor in Nicotiana attenuata1

    PubMed Central

    Horn, Martin; Patankar, Aparna G.; Zavala, Jorge A.; Wu, Jianqiang; Dolečková-Mareơová, Lucie; VƯjtěchová, Milana; Mareơ, Michael; Baldwin, Ian T.

    2005-01-01

    Trypsin proteinase inhibitors (TPIs) of Nicotiana attenuata are major antiherbivore defenses that increase dramatically in leaves after attack or methyl jasmonate (MeJA) elicitation. To understand the elicitation process, we characterized the proteolytic fragmentation and release of TPIs from a multidomain precursor by proteases in MeJA-elicited and unelicited plants. A set of approximately 6-kD TPI peptides was purified from leaves, and their posttranslational modifications were characterized. In MeJA-elicited plants, the diversity of TPI structures was greater than the precursor gene predicted. This elicited structural heterogeneity resulted from differential fragmentation of the linker peptide (LP) that separates the seven-domain TPI functional domains. Using an in vitro fluorescence resonance energy transfer assay and synthetic substrates derived from the LP sequence, we characterized proteases involved in both the processing of the TPI precursor and its vacuolar targeting sequence. Although both a vacuolar processing enzyme and a subtilisin-like protease were found to participate in a two-step processing of LP, only the activity of the subtilisin-like protease was significantly increased by MeJA elicitation. We propose that MeJA elicitation increases TPI precursor production and saturates the proteolytic machinery, changing the processing pattern of TPIs. To test this hypothesis, we elicited a TPI-deficient N. attenuata genotype that had been transformed with a functional NaTPI gene under control of a constitutive promoter and characterized the resulting TPIs. We found no alterations in the processing pattern predicted from the sequence: a result consistent with the saturation hypothesis. PMID:16113221

  4. Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

  5. Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

    A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

  6. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This


  7. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  8. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... opportunities for implementing solutions at little to no cost, including multi-sector partnerships. There are...) requests input, comment, and ideas from the public on a draft concept for next-generation citizen... citizens who have expertise on a topic, giving them the opportunity to participate in a public...

  9. An expert system for processing uncorrelated satellite tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecker, Michael A.

    1992-12-01

    Through an array of ground based radar sights and optical cameras, the United States military tracks objects in near and far Earth orbit. The sensors provide epoch and ephemeris information that is used to update a database of known objects. While a majority of the sensor observations are matched to their corresponding satellites, a small percentage are beyond the capabilities of current software and cannot be correlated. These uncorrelated targets, UCT's, must be manually fitted by orbital analysts in a labor intensive process. As an alternative to this human intervention, the use of artificial intelligence techniques to augment the present computer code was explored. Specifically, an expert system for processing UCT's at the Naval Space Surveillance Command was developed. Rules were generated through traditional knowledge engineering methods and by a novel application of machine learning. The initial results are very good with the operational portions of the system matching the performance of the experts with an accuracy of 99%. Although not yet complete, the code developed in this research definitely shows the potential of using artificial intelligence to process UCT'S.

  10. Combining experts' judgments: comparison of algorithmic methods using synthetic data.

    PubMed

    Hammitt, James K; Zhang, Yifan

    2013-01-01

    Expert judgment (or expert elicitation) is a formal process for eliciting judgments from subject-matter experts about the value of a decision-relevant quantity. Judgments in the form of subjective probability distributions are obtained from several experts, raising the question how best to combine information from multiple experts. A number of algorithmic approaches have been proposed, of which the most commonly employed is the equal-weight combination (the average of the experts' distributions). We evaluate the properties of five combination methods (equal-weight, best-expert, performance, frequentist, and copula) using simulated expert-judgment data for which we know the process generating the experts' distributions. We examine cases in which two well-calibrated experts are of equal or unequal quality and their judgments are independent, positively or negatively dependent. In this setting, the copula, frequentist, and best-expert approaches perform better and the equal-weight combination method performs worse than the alternative approaches. PMID:22583060

  11. Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

  12. Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paris, Cecile L.

    1993-01-01

    Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

  13. Signaling in the elicitation process is mediated through the octadecanoid pathway leading to jasmonic acid.

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, M J; Brodschelm, W; Spannagl, E; Zenk, M H

    1993-01-01

    Fungal cell walls and fragments thereof (elicitors) induce the formation of low and high molecular weight defense compounds in plant cell suspension cultures. This induced synthesis requires a signal molecule transmitting the message between the elicitor plant cell wall receptor and gene activation. We demonstrate in this study that cis-jasmonic acid is rapidly synthesized in plant cell cultures of diverse taxonomic origin (gymnosperms and mono- and dicotyledonous plants) after challenge with a fungal elicitor preparation. The rapid decline of cis-jasmonic acid in some of these tissues is attributed to rapid metabolism of this pentacyclic acid. The induction of alkaloids by several different molecules provoking the elicitation process is strictly correlated with the synthesis of jasmonates. Elicitation leads to a rapid release of alpha-linolenic acid from the lipid pool of the plant cell. alpha-Linolenic acid and 12-oxophytodienoic acid, the formation of which is also induced, are known to be distant precursors of jasmonic acid. We assume cis-jasmonic acid and its precursors to be the signaling molecules in the elicitation process. PMID:11607420

  14. An expert system for processing sequence homology data

    SciTech Connect

    Sonnhammer, E.L.L.; Durbin, R.

    1994-12-31

    When confronted with the task of finding homology to large numbers of sequences, database searching tools such as Blast and Fasta generate prohibitively large amounts of information. An automatic way of making most of the decisions a trained sequence analyst would make was developed by means of a rule-based expert system combined with an algorithm to avoid non-informative biased residue composition matches. The results found relevant by the system are presented in a very concise and clear way, so that the homology can be assessed with minimum effort. The expert system, HSPcrunch, was implemented to process the output of the programs in the BLAST suite. HSPcrunch embodies rules on detecting distant similarities when pairs of weak matches are consistent with a larger gaped alignment, i.e. when Blast has broken a longer gaped alignment up into smaller ungaped ones. This way, more distant similarities can be detected with no or little side-effects of more spurious matches. The rules for how small the gaps must be to be considered significant have been derived empirically. Currently a set of rules are used that operate on two different scoring levels, one for very weak matches that have very small gaps and one for medium weak matches that have slightly larger gaps. This set of rules proved to be robust for most cases and gives high fidelity separation between real homologies and spurious matches, One of the most important rules for reducing the amount of output is to limit the number of overlapping matches to the same region of the query sequence. This way, a region with many high-scoring matches will not dominate the output and hide weaker but relevant matches to other regions. This is particularly valuable for multi-domain queries.

  15. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while


  16. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  17. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software


  18. Processing memories of anger-eliciting events: the effect of asking 'why' from a distance.

    PubMed

    Wimalaweera, Subodha W; Moulds, Michelle L

    2008-03-01

    Preliminary experimental evidence suggests that ruminating about anger-eliciting events exacerbates anger and associated affect. However, no research has investigated the effect of rumination on processing memories of these events. This study examined the impact of manipulating cognitive processing when recalling anger-eliciting events. Participants (N=60) outlined an anger-related experience and were randomly allocated to recall the event according to an experimental instruction that manipulated recall perspective and emotional focus (distanced-why, distanced-what, immersed-why or immersed-what). Participants completed measures of negative affect and implicit and explicit anger, and returned the following day to complete measures that indexed frequency of intrusive memories of the event and memory-related distress. Contrary to prediction, participants allocated to the distanced-why condition did not report reduced anger. However, participants instructed to think about 'why' they experienced the emotions they did during the event (compared with 'what' emotions they experienced) reported more intrusions 24h later, regardless of vantage perspective. These results accord with theoretical models that emphasise the negative impact of a ruminative 'why' focus on the processing of past events. PMID:18279839

  19. Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

    1991-03-01

    To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

  20. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, ?, for which the true value, ?*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(?) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about ?) and d(?), a zero-one indicator function of the observation ?*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation ?*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where ? is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(?). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(?) by g(?), the distribution that model the randomness of ?, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(?) to g(?). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  1. Counter-regulating on the Internet: Threat elicits preferential processing of positive information.

    PubMed

    Greving, Hannah; Sassenberg, Kai; Fetterman, Adam

    2015-09-01

    The Internet is a central source of information. It is increasingly used for information search in self-relevant domains (e.g., health). Self-relevant topics are also associated with specific emotions and motivational states. For example, individuals may fear serious illness and feel threatened. Thus far, the impact of threat has received little attention in Internet-based research. The current studies investigated how threat influences Internet search. Threat is known to elicit the preferential processing of positive information. The self-directed nature of Internet search should particularly provide opportunities for such processing behavior. We predicted that during Internet search, more positive information would be processed (i.e., allocated more attention to) and more positive knowledge would be acquired under threat than in a control condition. Three experiments supported this prediction: Under threat, attention is directed more to positive web pages (Study 1) and positive links (Study 2), and more positive information is acquired (Studies 1 and 3) than in a control condition. Notably, the effect on knowledge acquisition was mediated by the effect on attention allocation during an actual Internet search (Study 1). Thus, Internet search under threat leads to selective processing of positive information and dampens threatened individuals' negative affect. PMID:26098968

  2. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey, completed in mid-2004, and (2) drilling of selected anomalies based on the aeromagnetic survey results to better characterize the number, location and age of buried volcanoes, which began in mid-2005. The new aeromagnetic survey detected the presence of 33 anomalies interpreted as possible buried volcanoes or faulted tuff bedrock. A program to drill ten of the anomalies has begun, with the selection of drill holes prioritized based on their potential impact on the hazard assessment.

  3. RFID-Based Critical Path Expert System for Agility Manufacture Process Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Haifang; Xiang, Yuli

    This paper presents a critical path expert system for the agility manufacture process management based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. The paper explores that the agility manufacture processes can be visible and controllable with RFID. The critical paths or activities can be easily found out and tracked by the RFID tracing technology. And the expert system can optimize the bottle neck of the task process of the agility management with the critical path adjusting and reforming method. Finally, the paper gives a simple application example of the system to discuss how to adjust the critical paths and how to make the process more agility and flexibility with the critical path expert system. With an RFID-based critical path expert system, the agility manufacture process management will be more effective and efficient.

  4. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  5. Expert model for intelligent control of composite materials processing in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    1992-02-01

    An expert model for the in-process control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using Personal Consultant Plus (PC Plus) expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol crunching capability of the LISP computer language and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The expert model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. The feasibility of using models to determine the process state when sensors are not available or are malfunctioning was demonstrated. Hercules 3501-6/AS4 8-in x 8-in panels were processed in the heated-platens press, using both the standard cure cycle and the expert model control system. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  6. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices

    PubMed Central

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  7. Design Expert's Participation in Elementary Students' Collaborative Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of the present study was to provide insights into how disciplinary expertise might be infused into Design and Technology classrooms and how authentic processes based on professional design practices might be constructed. We describe elementary students' collaborative lamp designing process, where the leadership was provided by a…

  8. User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. Methods AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Results Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. Conclusions AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department. PMID:23289426

  9. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  10. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C. (Bolingbrook, IL); Singer, Ralph M. (Naperville, IL)

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  11. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  12. A reevaluation of the electrophysiological correlates of expert object processing.

    PubMed

    Scott, Lisa S; Tanaka, James W; Sheinberg, David L; Curran, Tim

    2006-09-01

    Subordinate-level object processing is regarded as a hallmark of perceptual expertise. However, the relative contribution of subordinate- and basic-level category experience in the acquisition of perceptual expertise has not been clearly delineated. In this study, participants learned to classify wading birds and owls at either the basic (e.g., wading bird, owl) or the subordinate (e.g., egret, snowy owl) level. After 6 days of training, behavioral results showed that subordinate-level but not basic-level training improved subordinate discrimination of trained exemplars, novel exemplars, and exemplars from novel species. Event-related potentials indicated that both basic- and subordinate-level training enhanced the early N170 component, but only subordinate-level training amplified the later N250 component. These results are consistent with models positing separate basic and subordinate learning mechanisms, and, contrary to perspectives attempting to explain visual expertise solely in terms of subordinate-level processing, suggest that expertise enhances neural responses of both basic and subordinate processing. PMID:16989547

  13. Enhanced Temporal but Not Attentional Processing in Expert Tennis Players

    PubMed Central

    Overney, Leila S.; Blanke, Olaf; Herzog, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    In tennis, as in many disciplines of sport, fine spatio-temporal resolution is required to reach optimal performance. While many studies on tennis have focused on anticipatory skills or decision making, fewer have investigated the underlying visual perception abilities. In this study, we used a battery of seven visual tests that allowed us to assess which kind of visual information processing is performed better by tennis players than other athletes (triathletes) and non-athletes. We found that certain time-related skills, such as speed discrimination, are superior in tennis players compared to non-athletes and triathletes. Such tasks might be used to improve tennis performance in the future. PMID:18545661

  14. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and substantial effect. Prior to this investigation, there have been no studies which have tested Zimmerman's three phase model on an academic task, such as science, within an expertise framework. Implications from the present study suggest that students varying in expertise level in science achievement also vary in self-regulatory behavior, and that gender is not a significant factor.

  15. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique


  16. A Sublanguage Approach to Natural Language Processing for an Expert System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddy, Elizabeth D.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Reports on the development of an NLP (natural language processing) component for processing the free-text comments on life insurance applications for evaluation by an underwriting expert system. A sublanguage grammar approach with strong reliance on semantic word classes is described. Highlights include lexical analysis, adjacency analysis, and


  17. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  18. A Sublanguage Approach to Natural Language Processing for an Expert System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddy, Elizabeth D.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Reports on the development of an NLP (natural language processing) component for processing the free-text comments on life insurance applications for evaluation by an underwriting expert system. A sublanguage grammar approach with strong reliance on semantic word classes is described. Highlights include lexical analysis, adjacency analysis, and…

  19. Stronger activation and deactivation in archery experts for differential cognitive strategy in visuospatial working memory processing.

    PubMed

    Seo, Jeehye; Kim, Yang-Tae; Song, Hui-Jin; Lee, Hui Joong; Lee, Jongmin; Jung, Tae-Du; Lee, Gunyoung; Kwon, Eunjin; Kim, Jin Gu; Chang, Yongmin

    2012-04-01

    It is well known that elite athletes have higher performance in perception, planning, and execution in sports activities relative to novices. It remains controversial, however, whether any differences in basic cognitive functions between experts and novices exist. Furthermore, few studies have directly used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate neural activation and deactivation differences between experts and novices while performing visuospatial working memory (WM) tasks. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine possible differences in neural activation and deactivation associated with working memory components in processing visuospatial information between archery experts and novices. To this end, we employed a judgment of line orientation (JLO) task, which has a strong WM component. With regard to brain activation, archery experts displayed higher activation in cortical areas associated with visuospatial attention and working memory, including the middle frontal cortex, supplemental motor area, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex than that of the novices during the performance of the JLO task. With regard to brain deactivation, archery experts exhibited stronger task-related deactivation in cortical areas, such as the paracentral cortex/precuneus and the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex related to the default network, than that of the novices. These results suggest that the archery experts have a strategy that demands greater use of neural correlates associated with visuospatial working memory and attention in addition to greater use of DMN in visuospatial working memory task not directly tied to their domain of expertise. PMID:22266924

  20. A formal methodology for acquiring and representing expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, N.M.; McDonald, J.E.

    1986-10-01

    The process of eliciting knowledge from human experts and representing that knowledge in an expert or knowledge-based system suffers from numerous problems. Not only is this process time-consuming and tedious, but the weak knowledge acquisition methods typically used (i.e., interviews and protocol analysis) are inadequate for eliciting tacit knowledge and may, in fact, lead to inaccuracies in the knowledge base. In addition, the intended knowledge representation scheme guides the acquisition of knowledge resulting in a representation-driven knowledge base as opposed to one that is knowledge-driven. In this paper, a formal methodology is proposed that employs techniques from the field of cognitive psychology to uncover expert knowledge as well as an appropriate representation of that knowledge. The advantages of such a methodology are discussed, as well as results from studies concerning the elicitation of concepts from experts and the assignment of labels to links in empirically derived semantic networks.

  1. Expert models and modeling processes associated with a computer-modeling tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Baohui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-07-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using think aloud technique and video recording, we captured their computer screen modeling activities and thinking processes. We also interviewed them the day following their modeling sessions to further probe the rationale of their modeling practices. We analyzed both the audio-video transcripts and the experts' models. We found the experts' modeling processes followed the linear sequence built in the modeling program with few instances of moving back and forth. They specified their goals up front and spent a long time thinking through an entire model before acting. They specified relationships with accurate and convincing evidence. Factors (i.e., variables) in expert models were clustered, and represented by specialized technical terms. Based on the above findings, we made suggestions for improving model-based science teaching and learning using Model-It.

  2. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

  3. Holistic processing of musical notation: Dissociating failures of selective attention in experts and novices.

    PubMed

    Wong, Yetta Kwailing; Gauthier, Isabel

    2010-12-01

    Holistic processing (i.e., the tendency to process objects as wholes) is associated with face perception and also with expertise individuating novel objects. Surprisingly, recent work also reveals holistic effects in novice observers. It is unclear whether the same mechanisms support holistic effects in experts and in novices. In the present study, we measured holistic processing of music sequences using a selective attention task in participants who vary in music-reading expertise. We found that holistic effects were strategic in novices but were relatively automatic in experts. Correlational analyses revealed that individual holistic effects were predicted by both individual music-reading ability and neural responses for musical notation in the right fusiform face area (rFFA), but in opposite directions for experts and novices, suggesting that holistic effects in the two groups may be of different natures. To characterize expert perception, it is important not only to measure the tendency to process objects as wholes, but also to test whether this effect is dependent on task constraints. PMID:21098813

  4. XCUT: A rule-based expert system for the automated process planning of machined parts

    SciTech Connect

    Brooks, S.L.; Hummel, K.E.; Wolf, M.L.

    1987-06-01

    Automated process planning is becoming a popular research and development topic in engineering and applied artificial intelligence. It is generally defined as the automatic planning of the manufacturing procedures for producing a part from a CAD based product definition. An automated process planning system, XCUT, is currently being developed using rule-based expert system techniques. XCUT will generate process plans for the production of machined piece-parts, given a geometric description of a part's features. The system currently is focused on operation planning for prismatic parts on multi-axis CNC milling machines. To date, moderately complex 2-1/2D prismatic parts have successfully been planned for with approximately 300 rules in the knowledge base. This paper will describe the XCUT system, system architecture, knowledge representation, plan development sequence, and issues in applying expert system technology to automated process planning. 16 refs.

  5. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  6. Studying the Accuracy of Software Process Elicitation: The User Articulated Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crabtree, Carlton A.

    2010-01-01

    Process models are often the basis for demonstrating improvement and compliance in software engineering organizations. A descriptive model is a type of process model describing the human activities in software development that actually occur. The purpose of a descriptive model is to provide a documented baseline for further process improvement…

  7. Real-time expert systems interfaces, cognitive processes, and task performance: an empirical assessment.

    PubMed

    Adelman, L; Cohen, M S; Bresnick, T A; Chinnis, J O; Laskey, K B

    1993-06-01

    In this experiment we investigated the effect of different real-time expert system interfaces on operators' cognitive processes and performance. The results supported the principle that a real-time expert system's interface should focus operators' attention on where it is required most. However following this principle resulted in unanticipated consequences. In particular, it led to inferior performance for less critical, yet important cases requiring operators' attention. For such cases operators performed better with an interface that let them select where they wanted to focus their attention. Having a rule generation capability improved performance with all interfaces but did so less than hypothesized. In all cases performance with different interfaces and a rule generation capability was explained by the effect of the interfaces on cognitive process measures. PMID:8349288

  8. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  9. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  10. Pecularities in development of optical discrete devices for data processing in expert medium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volosovich, Anatoly E.; Taturevich, I. I.; Kutusov, P. F.

    1995-11-01

    Consider some questions of optical discrete devices (ODD) in a distributed CAD system at various levels of computer support. It is necessary to standardize the optical design process in order for many more researchers to be able to design optoelectronic systems and the challenge in building these systems will shift to the design complexity and the cost of system fabrication. The analysis of new properties of the materials can be carried out with the help of expert system (ES). A conceptual design is a schematic idea of the way to make up the mutual relation between global material dualities and/or geometric properties. A knowledge base was formed in expert medium for development of discrete devices generating dynamic holograms.

  11. Knowledge-based aerial image understanding systems and expert systems for image processing

    SciTech Connect

    Matsuyama, T.

    1987-05-01

    This paper discusses roles of artificial intelligence in the automatic interpretation of remotely sensed imagery. The authors first discuss several image understanding systems for analyzing complex aerial photographs. The discussion is mainly concerned with knowledge representation and control structure in the aerial image understanding systems: a blackboard model for integrating diverse object detection modules, a symbolic model representation for three-dimensional object recognition, and integration of bottom-up and top-down analyses. Then, a model of expert systems for image processing is introduced that discussed which and what combinations of image processing operators are effective to analyze an image.

  12. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of…

  13. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of


  14. Furin-processed antigens targeted to the secretory route elicit functional TAP1-/-CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo.

    PubMed

    Medina, Francisco; Ramos, Manuel; Iborra, Salvador; de LeĂłn, Patricia; RodrĂ­guez-Castro, Marta; Del Val, Margarita

    2009-10-01

    Most pathogen-derived peptides recognized by CD8+ CTL are produced by proteasomes and delivered to the endoplasmic reticulum by the TAP transporters associated with Ag processing. Alternative proteases also produce antigenic peptides, but their actual relevance is unclear. There is a need to quantify the contribution of these supplementary pathways in vitro and in vivo. A well-defined TAP-independent secretory route of Ag processing involves the trans-Golgi network protease furin. Quantitation of this route by using OVA constructs encoded by vaccinia viruses indicates that it provides approximately one-third of all surface complexes of peptide and MHC class I molecules. Generation of the epitope carboxyl terminus is a dramatic rate-limiting step, since bypassing it increased efficiency by at least 1000-fold. Notably, the secretory construct activated a similar percentage of Ag-specific CD8+ T cells in wild type as in TAP1-deficient mice, which allow only secretory routes but which have a 10- to 20-fold smaller CD8 compartment. Moreover, these TAP1(-/-) OVA-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes accomplished elimination of epitope-bearing cells in vivo. The results obtained with this experimental system underscore the potential of secretory pathways of MHC class I Ag presentation to elicit functional CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo and support the hypothesis that noncytosolic processing mechanisms may compensate in vivo for the lack of proteasome participation in Ag processing in persons genetically deficient in TAP and thus contribute to pathogen control. PMID:19752221

  15. Product vs. Process: The Relevance of Methodology in the Elicitation of Storybook Re-enactments from Young Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hieshima, Joyce A.; Sulzby, Elizabeth

    The elicitation procedures currently used by E. Sulzby in studies of emergent storybook reading were developed by addressing (1) how the wording of the elicitation request given sets up expectations on the child's part regarding language and behavior, (2) how the role that the investigator takes during the session affects the child/investigator…

  16. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.…

  17. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.


  18. Dispreferred adjective orders elicit brain responses associated with lexico-semantic rather than syntactic processing.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hsu-Wen; Federmeier, Kara D

    2012-09-26

    We examined how adjective ordering is used in language comprehension by crossing order preference and concreteness in phrases consisting of two adjectives and a noun. We used both more typical phrases in which the preferred order has a concrete second adjective ("exhaustive hardback encyclopedia") and those with a concrete first adjective in the preferred order ("heavy informative encyclopedia"). We found that concreteness-related modulations of the ERP waveform were likely responsible for prior reports of increased positivity to dispreferred orders (interpreted as a syntactic P600-like effect). When concreteness is controlled, instead, we found that dispreferred orders are associated with larger N400s to the second adjective and following noun. This suggests that dispreferred adjective orders impact lexico-semantic predictability and the ability to generate mental images of the referent but do not result in syntactic processing difficulties. PMID:22885290

  19. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  20. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  1. Development of Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents Using an Expert Consensus Process

    PubMed Central

    Hogan, Teresita M.; Losman, Eve D.; Carpenter, Christopher R.; Sauvigne, Karen; Irmiter, Cheryl; Emanuel, Linda; Leipzig, Rosanne M.

    2011-01-01

    Background The emergency department (ED) visit rate for older patients exceeds that of all age groups other than infants. The aging population will increase elder ED patient utilization to 35% to 60% of all visits. Older patients can have complex clinical presentations and be resource-intensive. Evidence indicates that emergency physicians fail to provide consistent high-quality care for elder ED patients, resulting in poor clinical outcomes. Objectives The objective was to develop a consensus document, “Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents,” by identified experts. This is a minimum set of behaviorally based performance standards that all residents should be able to demonstrate by completion of their residency training. Methods This consensus-based process utilized an inductive, qualitative, multiphase method to determine the minimum geriatric competencies needed by emergency medicine (EM) residents. Assessments of face validity and reliability were used throughout the project. Results In Phase I, participants (n = 363) identified 12 domains and 300 potential competencies. In Phase II, an expert panel (n = 24) clustered the Phase I responses, resulting in eight domains and 72 competencies. In Phase III, the expert panel reduced the competencies to 26. In Phase IV, analysis of face validity and reliability yielded a 100% consensus for eight domains and 26 competencies. The domains identified were atypical presentation of disease; trauma, including falls; cognitive and behavioral disorders; emergent intervention modifications; medication management; transitions of care; pain management and palliative care; and effect of comorbid conditions. Conclusions The Geriatric Competencies for EM Residents is a consensus document that can form the basis for EM residency curricula and assessment to meet the demands of our aging population. PMID:20370765

  2. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 2, Code manual

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-09-01

    We recommend the reader first review Volume 1 of this document, Code Theory, before reading Volume 2. In this volume we make extensive use of terms and concepts described and defined in Volume 1 which are not redefined here to the same extent. To try to reduce the amount of redundant information, we have restricted this volume to the presentation of the expert system code and refer back to the theory described in Volume 1 when necessary. Verification and validation of the results are presented in Volume 3, Application, of this document. Volume 3 also presents the implementation of the component characteristics diagnostic approach through artificial neural networks discussed in Volume 1. We decided to present the component characteristics approach in Volume 3, as opposed to write a separate code manual for it, because the approach, although general, requires a case-by-case analysis. The purpose of this volume is to present the details of the expert system (ES) portion o the PRODIAG process diagnostic program. In addition, we present here the graphical diagnostics interface (GDI) and illustrate the combined use of the ES and GDI with a sample problem. For completeness, we provide the file names of all files, programs and major subroutines of these two systems, ES and GDI, and their corresponding location in the Reactor Analysis Division (RA) computer network and Reactor Engineering Division (RE) computer network as of 30 September 1995.

  3. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  4. Parahippocampal cortex is involved in material processing via echoes in blind echolocation experts.

    PubMed

    Milne, Jennifer L; Arnott, Stephen R; Kish, Daniel; Goodale, Melvyn A; Thaler, Lore

    2015-04-01

    Some blind humans use sound to navigate by emitting mouth-clicks and listening to the echoes that reflect from silent objects and surfaces in their surroundings. These echoes contain information about the size, shape, location, and material properties of objects. Here we present results from an fMRI experiment that investigated the neural activity underlying the processing of materials through echolocation. Three blind echolocation experts (as well as three blind and three sighted non-echolocating control participants) took part in the experiment. First, we made binaural sound recordings in the ears of each echolocator while he produced clicks in the presence of one of three different materials (fleece, synthetic foliage, or whiteboard), or while he made clicks in an empty room. During fMRI scanning these recordings were played back to participants. Remarkably, all participants were able to identify each of the three materials reliably, as well as the empty room. Furthermore, a whole brain analysis, in which we isolated the processing of just the reflected echoes, revealed a material-related increase in BOLD activation in a region of left parahippocampal cortex in the echolocating participants, but not in the blind or sighted control participants. Our results, in combination with previous findings about brain areas involved in material processing, are consistent with the idea that material processing by means of echolocation relies on a multi-modal material processing area in parahippocampal cortex. PMID:25086210

  5. Methodology development of an engineering design expert system utilizing a modular knowledge-base inference process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, Steven John

    Methodology development was conducted to incorporate a modular knowledge-base representation into an expert system engineering design application. The objective for using multidisciplinary methodologies in defining a design system was to develop a system framework that would be applicable to a wide range of engineering applications. The technique of "knowledge clustering" was used to construct a general decision tree for all factual information relating to the design application. This construction combined the design process surface knowledge and specific application depth knowledge. Utilization of both levels of knowledge created a system capable of processing multiple controlling tasks including; organizing factual information relative to the cognitive levels of the design process, building finite element models for depth knowledge analysis, developing a standardized finite element code for parallel processing, and determining a best solution generated by design optimization procedures. Proof of concept for the methodology developed here is shown in the implementation of an application defining the analysis and optimization of a composite aircraft canard subjected to a general compound loading condition. This application contained a wide range of factual information and heuristic rules. The analysis tools used included a finite element (FE) processor and numerical optimizer. An advisory knowledge-base was also developed to provide a standard for conversion of serial FE code for parallel processing. All knowledge-bases developed operated as either an advisory, selection, or classification systems. Laminate properties are limited to even-numbered, quasi-isotropic ply stacking sequences. This retained full influence of the coupled in-plane and bending effects of the structures behavior. The canard is modeled as a constant thickness plate and discretized into a varying number of four or nine-noded, quadrilateral, shear-deformable plate elements. The benefit gained by a designer from using this design methodology is presented by examining the capability of the system to satisfy the different levels of engineering design cognitive abilities. Numerical results of design iterations are provided to detail the expert system's advise in feasible region identification, and multiple iteration outcomes are used to justify solution assessment rules used in controlling the optimization process.

  6. Breast Implant–associated Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma: Updated Results from a Structured Expert Consultation Process

    PubMed Central

    Predmore, Zachary S.; Mattke, Soeren; van Busum, Kristin; Gidengil, Courtney A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite increased cases published on breast implant–associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL), important clinical issues remain unanswered. We conducted a second structured expert consultation process to rate statements related to the diagnosis, management, and surveillance of this disease, based on their interpretation of published evidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of 12 experts was selected based on nominations from national specialty societies, academic department heads, and recognized researchers in the United States. Results: Panelists agreed that (1) this disease should be called “BIA-ALCL”; (2) late seromas occurring >1 year after breast implantation should be evaluated via ultrasound, and if a seroma is present, the fluid should be aspirated and sent for culture, cytology, flow cytometry, and cell block to an experienced hematopathologist; (3) surgical removal of the affected implant and capsule (as completely as possible) should occur, which is sufficient to eradicate capsule-confined BIA-ALCL; (4) surveillance should consist of clinical follow-up at least every 6 months for at least 5 years and breast ultrasound yearly for at least 2 years; and (5) BIA-ALCL is generally a biologically indolent disease with a good prognosis, unless it extends beyond the capsule and/or presents as a mass. They firmly disagreed with statements that chemotherapy and radiation therapy should be given to all patients with BIA-ALCL. Conclusions: Our assessment yielded consistent results on a number of key, incompletely addressed issues regarding BIA-ALCL, but additional research is needed to support these statement ratings and enhance our understanding of the biology, treatment, and outcomes associated with this disease. PMID:25674377

  7. SP-100 shield design automation process using expert system and heuristic search techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcille, Thomas F.; Protsik, Robert; Deane, Nelson A.; Hoover, Darryl G.

    1993-01-01

    The SP-100 shield subsystem design process has been modified to utilize the GE Corporate Reserch and Development program, ENGINEOUS (Tong 1990). ENGINEOUS is a software system that automates the use of Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) analysis programs in the engineering design process. The shield subsystem design process incorporates a nuclear subsystems design and performance code, a two-dimensional neutral particle transport code, several input processors and two general purpose neutronic output processors. Coupling these programs within ENGINEOUS provides automatic transition paths between applications, with no source code modifications. ENGINEOUS captures human design knowledge, as well as information about the specific CAE applications and stores this information in knowledge base files. The knowledge base information is used by the ENGINEOUS expert system to drive knowledge directed and knowledge supplemented search modules to find an optimum shield design for a given reactor definition, ensuring that specified constraints are satisfied. Alternate designs, not accommodated in the optimization design rules, can readily be explored through the use of a parametric study capability.

  8. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  9. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques; Wei, Thomas Y. C.

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  10. GAIT-ER-AID: An Expert System for Analysis of Gait with Automatic Intelligent Pre-Processing of Data

    PubMed Central

    Bontrager, EL.; Perry, J.; Bogey, R.; Gronley, J.; Barnes, L.; Bekey, G.; Kim, JW.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the architecture and applications of an expert system designed to identify the specific muscles responsible for a given dysfunctional gait pattern. The system consists of two parts: a data analysis expert system (DA/ES) and a gait pathology expert system (GP/ES). The DA/ES processes raw data on joint angles, foot-floor contact patterns and EMG's from relevant muscles and synthesizes them into a data frame for use by the GP/ES. Various aspects of the intelligent data pre-processing are described in detail, followed by a presentation of the GP/ES, including its structure, knowledge base, rule base, and inference engine. The inference process is clarified by careful analysis of an actual case, a patient with an equinus gait.

  11. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  12. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  13. Integrated processing and analysis of hydrological data - not only for experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalicz, P.; Gribovszki, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The advent of the digital data logging results huge amount of hydrological time series from wide variety of hydrological phenomenon and water quality indicators. There are different sampling frequencies, irregular time steps, hand measured control data which are necessary treat in the same database. Some processes (e.g. the concentration of surface water) in small catchments and urban areas change quickly thus at this case for a rigorous study it is necessary to apply high frequency data sampling. Sometimes there is an error and the equidistant times series is broken. The error produced gap in the time series forms an obstacle for some type of calculations. There are many proprietary softwares process these data and gives solutions for the exercises. It can be found also open source solutions. Some years ago the open source R was chosen for analyzing data, which are measured in the Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment. This system is an excellent environment to organize and visualize hydrological time series. The contributing package called zoo has good abilities to work with different temporal resolutions. There are also many sophisticated statistical functions (e.g. auto- and cross-correlation functions, spectral analysis, filters, smoothing algorithms, etc.). During the years some functions was developed for data import, semi-automatic data processing, visualizations and analyses. In the last year in the umbrella of a project brings up a demand for visualize time series from non-R-experts. An easy-to-use graphical user interface was developed to solve this problem instead of cumbersome import/export processes or introduction to R course. This integrated utility uses the integrated Tcl/Tk package and gives possibilities to mouse driven visualization.

  14. IPPEX (Inspection Process Planning EXpert): An automated planning system for dimensional inspection

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, C.W.

    1990-04-01

    This paper discusses recent accomplishments obtained from development efforts of a generative dimensional inspection planning system. This system, APEX (Inspection Process Planning EXpert), is a knowledge-based system, currently being developed for the dimensional inspection of piece parts. This prototype system applies artificial intelligence techniques and implements an advanced product definition modeling system. The APEX framework is based on a functional architecture designed for the purpose of producing CMM inspection plans, inspection part programs, and support information. The current APEX prototype system selects the appropriate CMM, identifies the measurable surfaces, suggests probing point determination, performs inspection work element planning, and creates an initial DMIS (Dimensional Measurement Interface Specification) part program, all for a specific workpiece. The following describes the APEX system, its functional activities, system architecture, product definition and tolerance representation, inspection features, inspection work elements, hierarchical inspection task planning approach, dimensional inspection techniques, part program creation, user interfaces formats, and other issues related to integrated inspection planning and part programming for CMMs. Finally, this paper describes a system that advances the development of automated inspection planning, product modelling systems with application accessible dimensions and tolerances, and standard dimensional inspection techniques and methodologies.

  15. Practice Guidance for Buprenorphine for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorders: Results of an Expert Panel Process

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Carrie M.; Lindsay, Dawn; Williams, Jessica; Ayers, Amanda; Schuster, James; Cilia, Alyssa; Flaherty, Michael T.; Mandell, Todd; Gordon, Adam J.; Stein, Bradley D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although numbers of physicians credentialed to prescribe buprenorphine has increased over time, many credentialed physicians may be reluctant to treat individuals with opioid use disorders due to discomfort with prescribing buprenorphine. Though prescribing physicians are required to complete a training course, many have questions about buprenorphine and treatment guidelines have not been updated to reflect clinical experience in recent years. We report on an expert panel process to update and expand buprenorphine guidelines. Methods We identified candidate guidelines through expert opinion and a review of the literature and used a modified RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method to assess the validity of the candidate guidelines. An expert panel completed two rounds of rating, with a meeting to discuss the guidelines between the first and second rating. Results Through the rating process, expert panel members rated 90 candidate guideline statements across eight domains, including candidacy for buprenorphine treatment, dosing of buprenorphine, psychosocial counseling, and treatment of co-occurring depression and anxiety. A total of 65 guideline statements (72%) were rated as valid. Expert panel members had agreement in some areas, such as the treatment of co-occurring mental health problems, but disagreement in others, including the appropriate dosing of buprenorphine given patient complexities. Conclusions Through an expert panel process, we developed an updated and expanded set of buprenorphine treatment guidelines; this additional guidance may increase credentialed physicians’ comfort with prescribing buprenorphine to patients with opioid use disorders. Future efforts should focus on appropriate dosing guidance and ensuring that guidelines can be adapted to a variety of practice settings. PMID:25844527

  16. Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

    PubMed

    Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

    2015-07-01

    Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. PMID:25850859

  17. Background and basis for a knowledge elicitation shell for lifetime predictions from stress corrosion cracking data

    SciTech Connect

    Roberge, P.R.

    1995-12-31

    An ideal expert system should closely reproduce the functions normally performed by the original source expert(s). But the complex transformations of a lifetime of industrial expertise into conveniently accessible software requires the willing and active participation of domain experts whose knowledge is rarely organized for such a transformation. The matching of logical and meticulous knowledge elicitation with memory-based judgments and expertise has often proved to be a difficult task. This paper describes an approach to construct a knowledge elicitation shell specifically adapted to the field of corrosion-related problems and expertise. The knowledge elicitation shell was structured along the lines of what has recently become the framework for the transfer of corrosion information to management and design engineers. The recent work published by Professor R.W. Staehle on the general topic of lifetime prediction and the impact of stress corrosion cracking on materials was used for this task. One obvious advantage of using an established formalism is the availability of supporting documentation and background material. The advantage of using Professor Staehle`s work in particular is the clarity of his points of view that reflect a solid career in materials science and engineering. In this paper, the environment-induced cracking of high-strength aluminum alloys is used as an example to illustrate how the elicitation shell could be activated. It is believed that, by using the elicitation shell, human experts will have to rationalize some aspects of their expertise and subsequently become able to establish new links between facts and corrosion data. The process of building tables of certainty factors during the shell operation and interaction with users is also discussed.

  18. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these…

  19. The Role of Inductive Expert Systems Generators in the Social Science Research Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garson, G. David

    Most of what may be construed as political science has always proceeded through induction, which depends heavily on the insight, intuition, and personal brilliance of the particular author. Another approach that is closely associated with the early induction through examples is the expert system. The outcomes of this approach are not measures of…

  20. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  1. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these


  2. Online Search + Logic Programming = Subject Bibliography: An Expert Systems Approach to Bibliographic Processing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lirov, Yuval; Lirov, Viktor

    1990-01-01

    Describes the development of a knowledge-based system, REX, that creates subject bibliographies by downloading reference material from an online bibliographic service. The expert systems architecture is explained, use of Prolog is described, and creation of the subject knowledge base and an author index are discussed. (10 references) (LRW)

  3. The Editing Process in Writing: A Performance Study of Experts and Novices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hull, Glynda A.

    To determine how writers who differ in editing performance respond to operationally defined categories of errors in different kinds of written texts, a study asked novice and expert editors to correct and comment upon three kinds of error (consulting, intuiting, and comprehending) in two tasks (a self-written essay and three essays written by


  4. Assessing the potential of microcomputer-based expert systems in the process of agricultural technology transfer in Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Fresneda, P.S.V.

    1986-01-01

    This study focused on technology-transfer problems in the agricultural sector. The research hypotheses were to assess the potential use of microcomputer-based expert systems as (1) mechanisms for transferring technical information between agricultural research and rural extension programs, (2) training aids for extensionists' (county agents') programs, and (3) tools for gathering relevant information from farmers and extensionists for research and extension management. The study also addressed the integrative role that expert systems technology plays in the overall process of technology transfer in the agricultural area, as well as the self-improving feature the technology introduces to the Total System (Research + Extension + Farmers) of agricultural technology development. A prototype expert system was developed for diagnosing and recommending treatment for selected potato diseases. In an experiment carried out in an extension organization in Brazil, 56 extensionists used the prototype and filled out a questionnaire designed to test the research hypotheses. Findings of the study indicate that microcomputer-based expert-system technology has the potential to accomplish the three objectives presented above.

  5. The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014

    PubMed Central

    Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose: One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students’ and experts’ performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. Materials and methods: This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members’ performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts’ viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don’t know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. Results: From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0.01. It showed 86.7% student and 33.3% of experts is satisfied with the evaluation process. Conclusion: on comparison of students and experts viewpoints on the implementation of the evaluation process, it is noteworthy that among students of different opinions on how the evaluation process. It worth to mention that there is insignificant difference between their viewpoints and majority of students and evaluation experts with the evaluation the process. In addition, the experts evaluated at different schools, most of them are satisfied the process. PMID:26236169

  6. Optimizing Instructional Designer--Subject Matter Expert Communication in the Design and Development of Multimedia Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keppell, Mike

    2001-01-01

    Summarizes a study which explored the development, trial, and implementation of the Content Production Process (CPP) which was designed to assist instructional designers in eliciting and conceptualizing unfamiliar content from subject matter experts. Highlights include advance organizers, schema theory, consultation practices, knowledge…

  7. An Ecological Analysis of the Herbivory-Elicited JA Burst and Its Metabolism: Plant Memory Processes and Predictions of the Moving Target Model

    PubMed Central

    Stork, William; Diezel, Celia; Halitschke, Rayko; Gális, Ivan; Baldwin, Ian T.

    2009-01-01

    Background Rapid herbivore-induced jasmonic acid (JA) accumulation is known to mediate many induced defense responses in vascular plants, but little is known about how JA bursts are metabolized and modified in response to repeated elicitations, are propagated throughout elicited leaves, or how they directly influence herbivores. Methodology/Principal Findings We found the JA burst in a native population of Nicotiana attenuata to be highly robust despite environmental variation and we examined the JA bursts produced by repeated elicitations with Manduca sexta oral secretions (OS) at whole- and within-leaf spatial scales. Surprisingly, a 2nd OS-elicitation suppressed an expected JA burst at both spatial scales, but subsequent elicitations caused more rapid JA accumulation in elicited tissue. The baseline of induced JA/JA-Ile increased with number of elicitations in discrete intervals. Large veins constrained the spatial spread of JA bursts, leading to heterogeneity within elicited leaves. 1st-instar M. sexta larvae were repelled by elicitations and changed feeding sites. JA conjugated with isoleucine (JA-Ile) translates elicitations into defense production (e.g., TPIs), but conjugation efficiency varied among sectors and depended on NaWRKY3/6 transcription factors. Elicited TPI activity correlated strongly with the heterogeneity of JA/JA-Ile accumulations after a single elicitation, but not repeated elicitations. Conclusions/Significance Ecologically informed scaling of leaf elicitation reveals the contribution of repeated herbivory events to the formation of plant memory of herbivory and the causes and importance of heterogeneity in induced defense responses. Leaf vasculature, in addition to transmitting long-distance damage cues, creates heterogeneity in JA bursts within attacked leaves that may be difficult for an attacking herbivore to predict. Such unpredictability is a central tenet of the Moving Target Model of defense, which posits that variability in itself is defensive. PMID:19277115

  8. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  9. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

  10. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a


  11. Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

    PubMed

    Staccini, Pascal M; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

    2002-01-01

    Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

  12. Improved identification of clastic depositional environments by process and facies models in expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Shultz, A.W.; Fang, J.H.; Chen, C.

    1989-03-01

    A previously described expert system for identification of clastic depositional environments (XEOD) has been substantially redesigned and improved as XEOD-II. Whereas the original design utilized simple checklist relationships between environments and features (sedimentary structures, lithology, etc), the new version is more meaningful in that it uses features to characterize facies as intermediate steps to an environmental interpretation. Some facies correspond directly to particular environments (e.g., tractive unidirectional currents). Facies classification is hierarchical, and identification proceeds to the most specific level allowable by the input data. More contexturally accurate interpretations for coastal and fluvial systems are possible using a series of data sets representing facies in a vertical sequence. Tentative facies identifications are verified by imperfect matching against a set of idealized vertical-sequence models. Incomplete and imperfect matches are diagnosed using alternative interpretations which combine two or more models. In spite of considerable difficulty in accepting both specific and varietal terms, improvements in the user interface have resulted in a relatively forgiving program. XEOD-II thus represents a second-generation system utilizing both factual knowledge and logical reasoning in sedimentological facies analysis.

  13. Diverse environmental stresses elicit distinct responses at the level of pre-mRNA processing in yeast

    PubMed Central

    Bergkessel, Megan; Whitworth, Gregg B.; Guthrie, Christine

    2011-01-01

    Gene expression in eukaryotic cells is profoundly influenced by the post-transcriptional processing of mRNAs, including the splicing of introns in the nucleus and both nuclear and cytoplasmic degradation pathways. These processes have the potential to affect both the steady-state levels and the kinetics of changes to levels of intron-containing transcripts. Here we report the use of a splicing isoform-specific microarray platform to investigate the effects of diverse stress conditions on pre-mRNA processing. Interestingly, we find that diverse stresses cause distinct patterns of changes at this level. The responses we observed are most dramatic for the RPGs and can be categorized into three major classes. The first is characterized by accumulation of RPG pre-mRNA and is seen in multiple types of amino acid starvation regimes; the magnitude of splicing inhibition correlates with the severity of the stress. The second class is characterized by a rapid decrease in both pre- and mature RPG mRNA and is seen in many stresses that inactivate the TORC1 kinase complex. These decreases depend on nuclear turnover of the intron-containing pre-RNAs. The third class is characterized by a decrease in RPG pre-mRNA, with only a modest reduction in the mature species; this response is observed in hyperosmotic and cation-toxic stresses. We show that casein kinase 2 (CK2) makes important contributions to the changes in pre-mRNA processing, particularly for the first two classes of stress responses. In total, our data suggest that complex post-transcriptional programs cooperate to fine-tune expression of intron-containing transcripts in budding yeast. PMID:21697354

  14. CABPRO: An expert system for process planning multiwire cables. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.

    1994-04-01

    CABPRO (CABle PROcessor) is a set of computer programs using Artificial Intelligence programming to automatically generate process plans and work instructions in support of the manufacture of multiwire cables. Development of these programs required selecting appropriate hardware and software tools, defining engineering process planning activities, acquiring and representing process planning knowledge, and creating a prototype system. A successful prototype was developed and demonstrated.

  15. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 1, Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.; Vitela, J.E.

    1995-09-01

    The function of the PRODIAG code is to diagnose on-line the root cause of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) system transient with trace back to the identification of the malfunctioning component using the T-H instrumentation signals exclusively. The code methodology is based on the Al techniques of automated reasoning/expert systems (ES) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The research and development objective is to develop a generic code methodology which would be plant- and T-H-system-independent. For the ES part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be implemented through input only and at that only through a Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (PID) database. For the ANN part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be through the ANN training data for normal component characteristics and the same PID database information. PRODIAG would, therefore, be generic and portable from T-H system to T-H system and from plant to plant without requiring any code-related modifications except for the PID database and the ANN training with the normal component characteristics. This would give PRODIAG the generic feature which numerical simulation plant codes such as TRAC or RELAP5 have. As the code is applied to different plants and different T-H systems, only the connectivity information, the operating conditions and the normal component characteristics are changed, and the changes are made entirely through input. Verification and validation of PRODIAG would, be T-H system independent and would be performed only ``once``.

  16. Using PC-based shells to write an expert assistance for use with the ASPEN (Advanced System for Process ENgineering) computer code

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, W.J.; Luger, G.F.; Bretz, R.E.

    1989-01-01

    Many engineers argue against using expert systems to solve problems because of the relatively high cost of specialized LISP machines and the large expert system shells written for them. This paper demonstrates how small, but useful, expert systems can be written with inexpensive shells and run on inexpensive personal computers (PCs). Two such shells are CLIPS and EXSHELL. CLIPS, developed by NASA, is a forward-chaining, rule-based system. It is written in the C language, but the rules are entered in a LISP-like format. EXSHELL, developed by the Computer Science Department at the University of New Mexico, is a backward-chaining, rule-based system written in PROLOG. Each of these shells was used to write an expert assistant to aid the design engineer in using the ASPEN (Advanced System for Process ENgineering) computer code. ASPEN is a large computer code used to design chemical plants and refineries. Among other things, ASPEN computes mass and energy balances for the plant design. Unfortunately, an expert, or several experts, are required to use ASPEN to its full potential. For example, choosing the proper thermodynamic package to represent a given process is important in developing the correct mass and energy balances. An ASPEN user may be an expert in plant design, yet may not be expert enough at thermodynamics to pick the proper package from the many offered by ASPEN. CLIPS and EXSHELL were used to develop a useful expert assistant to help process plant designers pick the proper thermodynamic package to be used with particular operating conditions at various points in the ASPEN plant simulation. This paper also demonstrates the utility and ease of use of these inexpensive shells and compares the approach used by each. 11 refs., 12 figs.

  17. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  18. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  19. Antibodies elicited by a virosomally formulated Plasmodium falciparum serine repeat antigen-5 derived peptide detect the processed 47 kDa fragment both in sporozoites and merozoites.

    PubMed

    Okitsu, Shinji L; Boato, Francesca; Mueller, Markus S; Li, Dong Bo; Vogel, Denise; Westerfeld, Nicole; Zurbriggen, Rinaldo; Robinson, John A; Pluschke, Gerd

    2007-10-01

    Serine repeat antigen-5 (SERA5) is a candidate antigen for inclusion into a malaria subunit vaccine. During merozoite release and reinvasion the 120 kDa SERA5 precursor protein (P120) is processed, and a complex consisting of an N-terminal 47 kDa (P47) and a C-terminal 18kDa (P18) processing product associates with the surface of merozoites. This complex is thought to be involved in merozoite invasion of and/or egress from host erythrocytes. Here we describe the synthesis and immunogenic properties of virosomally formulated synthetic phosphatidylethanolamine (PE)-peptide conjugates, incorporating amino acid sequence stretches from the N-terminus of Plasmodium falciparum SERA5. Choosing an appropriate sequence was crucial for the development of a peptide that elicited high titers of parasite cross-reactive antibodies in mice. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) raised against the optimized peptide FB-23 incorporating amino acids 57-94 of SERA5 bound to both P120 and to P47. Western blotting analysis proved for the first time the presence of SERA5 P47 in sporozoites. In immunofluorescence assays, the mAbs stained SERA5 in all its predicted localizations. The virosomal formulation of peptide FB-23 is suitable for use in humans and represents a candidate component for a multi-valent malaria subunit vaccine targeting both sporozoites and blood stage parasites. PMID:17875342

  20. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are


  1. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three


  2. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  3. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  4. Expert System Development in the Classroom: Processes and Outcomes. Technical Report 91-1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wideman, Herbert H.; Owston, Ronald D.

    This study examined cognitive processes and outcomes associated with student knowledge base development. Sixty-nine students from two grade 8 classes were randomly assigned to one of three groups: a knowledge base development (KBD) group, a problem-solving software group, and a control group. Those in the KBD group received relevant instruction


  5. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  6. A Type-2 Fuzzy Image Processing Expert System for Diagnosing Brain Tumors.

    PubMed

    Zarinbal, M; Fazel Zarandi, M H; Turksen, I B; Izadi, M

    2015-10-01

    The focus of this paper is diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas in MRI scans by developing an interval Type-2 fuzzy automated tumor detection system. This system consists of three modules: working memory, knowledge base, and inference engine. An image processing method with three steps of preprocessing, segmentation and feature extraction, and approximate reasoning is used in inference engine module to enhance the quality of MRI scans, segment them into desired regions, extract the required features, and finally diagnose and differentiate Astrocytomas. However, brain tumors have different characteristics in different planes, so considering one plane of patient's MRI scan may cause inaccurate results. Therefore, in the developed system, several consecutive planes are processed. The performance of this system is evaluated using 95 MRI scans and the results show good improvement in diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas. PMID:26276018

  7. Beyond the core face-processing network: Intracerebral stimulation of a face-selective area in the right anterior fusiform gyrus elicits transient prosopagnosia.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Jacques; Rossion, Bruno; Brissart, Hélène; Frismand, Solène; Jacques, Corentin; Hossu, Gabriela; Colnat-Coulbois, Sophie; Vespignani, Hervé; Vignal, Jean-Pierre; Maillard, Louis

    2015-11-01

    According to neuropsychological evidence, a distributed network of regions of the ventral visual pathway - from the lateral occipital cortex to the temporal pole - supports face recognition. However, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have generally confined ventral face-selective areas to the posterior section of the occipito-temporal cortex, i.e., the inferior occipital gyrus occipital face area (OFA) and the posterior and middle fusiform gyrus fusiform face area (FFA). There is recent evidence that intracranial electrical stimulation of these areas in the right hemisphere elicits face matching and recognition impairments (i.e., prosopagnosia) as well as perceptual face distortions. Here we report a case of transient inability to recognize faces following electrical stimulation of the right anterior fusiform gyrus, in a region located anteriorly to the FFA. There was no perceptual face distortion reported during stimulation. Although no fMRI face-selective responses were found in this region due to a severe signal drop-out as in previous studies, intracerebral face-selective event-related potentials and gamma range electrophysiological responses were found at the critical site of stimulation. These results point to a causal role in face recognition of the right anterior fusiform gyrus and more generally of face-selective areas located beyond the "core" face-processing network in the right ventral temporal cortex. It also illustrates the diagnostic value of intracerebral electrophysiological recordings and stimulation in understanding the neural basis of face recognition and visual recognition in general. PMID:26143305

  8. Expert networks in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

  9. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or hobbies). Unify myriad collections of data into Web-enabled repository that could easily be searched for relevant data.

  10. Eliciting Sound Memories.

    PubMed

    Harris, Anna

    2015-11-01

    Sensory experiences are often considered triggers of memory, most famously a little French cake dipped in lime blossom tea. Sense memory can also be evoked in public history research through techniques of elicitation. In this article I reflect on different social science methods for eliciting sound memories such as the use of sonic prompts, emplaced interviewing, and sound walks. I include examples from my research on medical listening. The article considers the relevance of this work for the conduct of oral histories, arguing that such methods "break the frame," allowing room for collaborative research connections and insights into the otherwise unarticulatable. PMID:26720992

  11. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-05-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  12. Computer-aided inspection process definition: Development of an expert planning and programming system for coordinate metrology. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, C.W.

    1995-04-01

    This work discusses accomplishments obtained from the design and prototype development of a computer-aided inspection process planning system for the dimensional measurement of manufactured parts. The system, IPPEX (Inspection Planning and Programming EXpert), is a knowledge-based system. This prototype system applies intelligence techniques and implements an advanced product definition modeling system. The IPPEX framework is based on a functional architecture designed for the purpose of producing inspection process plans, CMM part programs, and support information. The IPPEX conceptual prototype system selects the appropriate CMM, identifies the measurable surfaces, suggests probing point determination, performs inspection work element planning, and creates an initial Dimensional Measurement Interface Specification part program, all for a specific workpiece. This work describes the IPPEX system, its functional architecture, system architecture, system approach, product modeling environment, inspection features, inspection knowledge, hierarchical planning strategy, user interface formats, and other fundamental issues related to inspection planning and part programming for CMMs. Finally, this document describes research that will contribute toward furthering the development of automated inspection planning, advancing product modelling systems with application accessible tolerances, and defining standard dimensional inspection techniques and methodologies.

  13. Expert AIV: Study and Prototyping of an Expert System, To Support the Conceptual AIV Phases Of Space Programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrina, G.; Basso, V.; Saitta, L.

    2004-08-01

    The effort in optimising the AIV process has been mainly focused in the recent years on the standardisation of approaches and on the application of new methodologies. But the earlier the intervention, the greater the benefits in terms of cost and schedule. Early phases of AIV process relied up to now on standards that need to be tailored through company and personal expertise. A study has then been conducted in order to exploit the possibility to develop an expert system helping in making choices in the early, conceptual phase of Assembly, Integration and Verification, namely the Model Philosophy and the test definition. The work focused on a hybrid approach, allowing interaction between historical data and human expertise. The expert system that has been prototyped exploits both information elicited from domain experts and results of a Data Mining activity on the existent data bases of completed projects verification data. The Data Mining algorithms allow the extraction of past experience resident on ESA/ MATD data base, which contains information in the form of statistical summaries, costs, frequencies of on-ground and in flight failures. Finding non-trivial associations could then be utilised by the experts to manage new decisions in a controlled way (Standards driven) at the beginning or during the AIV Process Moreover, the Expert AIV could allow compilation of a set of feasible AIV schedules to support further programmatic-driven choices.

  14. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  15. Annotation methods to develop and evaluate an expert system based on natural language processing in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Quentin; Tvardik, Nastassia; Bouvry, Côme; Kergourlay, Ivan; Bittar, André; Segond, Frédérique; Darmoni, Stefan; Metzger, Marie-Hélène

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the SYNODOS collaborative project was to develop a generic IT solution, combining a medical terminology server, a semantic analyser and a knowledge base. The goal of the project was to generate meaningful epidemiological data for various medical domains from the textual content of French medical records. In the context of this project, we built a care pathway oriented conceptual model and corresponding annotation method to develop and evaluate an expert system's knowledge base. The annotation method is based on a semi-automatic process, using a software application (MedIndex). This application exchanges with a cross-lingual multi-termino-ontology portal. The annotator selects the most appropriate medical code proposed for the medical concept in question by the multi-termino-ontology portal and temporally labels the medical concept according to the course of the medical event. This choice of conceptual model and annotation method aims to create a generic database of facts for the secondary use of electronic health records data. PMID:26262366

  16. Rule based processing of the CD4000, CD3200 and CD Sapphire analyser output using the Cerner Discern Expert Module.

    PubMed

    Burgess, P; Robin, H; Langshaw, M; Kershaw, G; Pathiraja, R; Yuen, S; Coad, C; Xiros, N; Mansy, G; Coleman, R; Brown, R; Gibson, J; Holman, R; Hubbard, J; Wick, V; Lammers, M; Johnson, R; Huffman, K; Bell, J; Ibrahim, A; Estepa, F; Lovegrove, J; Joshua, D

    2009-12-01

    The latest version of our Laboratory Information System haematology laboratory expert system that handles the output of Abbott Cell-Dyn Sapphires, CD4000s and a CD3200 full blood count analyser in three high-volume haematology laboratories is described. The three hospital laboratories use Cerner Millennium Version 2007.02 software and the expert system uses Cerner Millennium Discern Expert rules and some small Cerner Command Language in-house programs. The entire expert system is totally integrated with the area-wide database and has been built and maintained by haematology staff members, as has the haematology database. Using patient demographic data, analyser numeric results, analyser error and morphology flags and previous results for the patient, this expert system decides whether to validate the main full blood count indices and white cell differential, or if the analyser results warrant further operator intervention/investigation before verifying, whether a blood film is required for microscopic review and if abnormal results require phoning to the staff treating the patient. The principles of this expert system can be generalized to different haematology analysers and haematology laboratories that have different workflows and different software. PMID:18691345

  17. The Effects of Word Processing Software on User Satisfaction: An Empirical Study of Micro, Mini, and Mainframe Computers Using an Interactive Artificial Intelligence Expert-System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rushinek, Avi; Rushinek, Sara

    1984-01-01

    Describes results of a system rating study in which users responded to WPS (word processing software) questions. Study objectives were data collection and evaluation of variables; statistical quantification of WPS's contribution (along with other variables) to user satisfaction; design of an expert system to evaluate WPS; and database update and…

  18. Consensus standards for the process of cancer care: a modified expert panel method applied to head and neck cancer. South and West Expert Tumour Panel for Head and Neck Cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Birchall, M. A.

    1998-01-01

    There are many pressures to improve the standard of care delivered to cancer patients, including the reforms subsequent to the Calman-Hine report. The establishment of standards is a prerequisite for audit, benchmarking and certification of cancer centres and units. Randomized trials of head and neck cancer are uncommon, and other forms of evidence often conflicting. In the south and west of England, a multidisciplinary expert panel consensus method has been applied to the development of standards. A panel representative of specialties involved in the process of care at all three levels, plus social medicine and lay members, was constructed. A model for the process of care was developed consisting of activity areas. For each activity, a near exhaustive list of tasks and standards was established. A three-iteration method with statistical group response was then used to refine the standards. The same method was also applied to the production of a minimum data set for registration, recording and audit. The resulting standards will be regularly reviewed. We have developed a model of the care process, and an expert panel methodology that is applicable to a wide range of problems in clinical oncology. PMID:9667669

  19. Expert systems and expert behavior.

    PubMed

    Sumner, W; Shultz, E K

    1992-10-01

    Iliad 4.0 and QMR 2.03 are computer-based diagnostic knowledge bases that can play many roles in decision support and other areas of medical practice, but neither appears ready to assume the role of an expert diagnostic consultant. In contrast to human experts, these programs have problems related to recognition of their own limitations, interpretation of continuous data, recognition of dependent findings, selection of tests, and description of the impact of certain tests. Suggestions to improve these aspects of knowledge bases are offered. PMID:1289466

  20. Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing

    PubMed Central

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M. Granger; Frame, David J.; Keith, David W.

    2010-01-01

    There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked “cloud radiative feedbacks” as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm-2 in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a “basic state change” as ?0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8–1.8?°C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5?°C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the “likely” range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty. PMID:20616045

  1. Elicitation of natural language representations of uncertainty using computer technology

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; Goeltz, R.; Travis, C.; Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN )

    1989-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation is an important aspect of risk analysis. Knowledge about risks must be accurately elicited from experts for use in risk assessments. Knowledge and perceptions of risks must also be accurately elicited from the public in order to intelligently perform policy analysis and develop and implement programs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is developing computer technology to effectively and efficiently elicit knowledge from experts and the public. This paper discusses software developed to elicit natural language representations of uncertainty. The software is written in Common Lisp and resides on VAX Computers System and Symbolics Lisp machines. The software has three goals, to determine preferences for using natural language terms for representing uncertainty; likelihood rankings of the terms; and how likelihood estimates are combined to form new terms. The first two goals relate to providing useful results for those interested in risk communication. The third relates to providing cognitive data to further our understanding of people's decision making under uncertainty. The software is used to elicit natural language terms used to express the likelihood of various agents causing cancer in humans and cancer resulting in various maladies, and the likelihood of everyday events. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  2. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,


  3. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes

  4. Hot potato: expert-consumer differences in the perception of a second-generation novel food.

    PubMed

    Hagemann, Kit S; Scholderer, Joachim

    2009-07-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite widespread efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in risk management has been low. Social scientists have identified various reasons for this, including a disagreement between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the ways in which experts and consumers understand the benefits and risks associated with a genetically modified example crop. Two qualitative studies were conducted. In Study 1, mental models were elicited from 24 experts by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure. In Study 2, mental models were elicited from 25 consumers by means of in-depth interviews. As expected, the expert mental models were focused on the types of hazards that can realistically be addressed under current regulatory frameworks, whereas the consumers were often more concerned about issues outside the scope of current legislation. Moreover, the experts tended to define risk and benefit in terms of detailed chains of cause-effect relationships between variables for which clear definitions and measurement rules exist. The concepts the consumers used when reasoning about biological processes were very abstract, suggesting that the participants had, at most, a holistic understanding. In line with this, issues of uncertainty played a prominent role for the consumers. PMID:19392674

  5. Recurrent expert networks

    SciTech Connect

    LeBlanc, C.

    1996-12-31

    Research has shown that computational techniques such as neural networks often provide classification abilities that are more accurate than methods which rely on explicit knowledge acquisition alone. On the other hand, because no {open_quotes}reason{close_quotes} for a particular classification can be given when a computational technique has been used, human experts tend to be skeptical of such systems. As a result, many researchers have developed tools, called hybrid systems, which combine the pattern recognition capabilities and parallel processing of neural systems while retaining the domain knowledge encoded in expert systems.

  6. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of completing classical data analysis with PEK as a mean to extract relevant knowledge in complex health domains. One of the major benefits of EbCA is iterative elicitation of IK.. Both explicit and tacit or implicit expert knowledge are critical to guide the scientific analysis of very complex decisional problems as those found in health system research. PMID:20920289

  7. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,


  8. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  9. Expert systems in seismic exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Denham, L.R.

    1985-02-01

    Artificial intelligence research has produced few practical results in most of its branches. However, expert systems in limited fields of expertise are potentially practical and cost-effective tools in many fields of exploration geophysics. Recent breakthroughs, such as writing expert systems in languages less exotic than Lisp, have made it possible to install a practical expert system on even the smallest computer. A recently published expert system written in Forth compiles a rule base into very compact code, and then uses it to reach decisions based on data supplied by the user. Such a system makes it possible for a small computer to be the geophysicist's advisor on many different subjects, because one expert system can use any number of rule bases. The expert system then becomes a practical tool for standardizing the decision-making process, even in comparatively trivial areas.

  10. Being an Expert Mathematics Online Tutor: What Does Expertise Entail?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinovic, Dragana

    2009-01-01

    This article is derived from the qualitative portion of a larger study conducted on mathematics websites that provide expert volunteer help. Data consist of tutoring logs of five expert tutors from two help sites, plus interviews with these tutors. The researcher has employed theories about expertise in the educational domain to elicit details of


  11. a New Method for Fmeca Based on Fuzzy Theory and Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byeon, Yoong-Tae; Kim, Dong-Jin; Kim, Jin-O.

    2008-10-01

    Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modern engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. FMECA evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectively. Generally, those indices are determined subjectively by experts and operators. However, this process has no choice but to include uncertainty. In this paper, a method for eliciting expert opinions considering its uncertainty is proposed to evaluate the criticality and severity. In addition, a fuzzy expert system is constructed in order to determine the crisp value of risk level for each failure mode. Finally, an illustrative example system is analyzed in the case study. The results are worth considering in deciding the proper policies for each component of the system.

  12. Text Mining and Natural Language Processing Approaches for Automatic Categorization of Lay Requests to Web-Based Expert Forums

    PubMed Central

    Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-01-01

    Background Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called “ask the doctor” services. Objective To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. Methods We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website “Rund ums Baby” (“Everything about Babies”) into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions (“subject matter” and “expectations”). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer’s V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. Results According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category “in vitro fertilization (IVF),” 81 (8%) into the category “ovulation,” 79 (8%) into “cycle,” and 57 (6%) into “semen analysis.” These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as “general information” and 351 (36%) as a wish for “treatment recommendations.” The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer’s V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other approaches, 100% precision and 100% recall were realized in 18 (47%) out of the 38 categories in the test sample. For 35 (92%) categories, precision and recall were better than 80%. For some categories, the input variables (ie, “words”) also included variables from other categories, most often with a negative sign. For example, absence of words predictive for “menstruation” was a strong indicator for the category “pregnancy test.” Conclusions Our approach suggests a way of automatically classifying and analyzing unstructured information in Internet expert forums. The technique can perform a preliminary categorization of new requests and help Internet medical experts to better handle the mass of information and to give professional feedback. PMID:19632978

  13. [Guidance of medical experts].

    PubMed

    Nüchtern, E; Mohrmann, M

    2011-06-01

    Guidance is an issue of growing importance for physicians responsible for medical experts working in public health services and on medical advisory boards. The challenge of ethics on the one hand and the constraints of economy on the other hand have considerable impact on the demands for quantity as well as quality of the expert opinions. Thus, executive staff in these organisations reflect as to whether and how they can influence performance through guidance. A short summary of the results of research on the subject of guidance - concerning the aspects (i) guidance as an interaction of people, (ii) guidance as a task in a concrete situation and (iii) guidance as a systemic process of development - shows and points out a wide range of possibilities for staff management and personnel development of medical consultants. Guidance of medical experts is possible and necessary in order to develop the professionalism of medical experts, in order to ensure quality, conformity to standards and efficiency of medical expertise, as well as for a future-oriented development of the medical advisory boards themselves. PMID:20549598

  14. Capital Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  15. Expert Systems: An Overview.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adiga, Sadashiv

    1984-01-01

    Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…

  16. Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-01-01

    It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

  17. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1) defining the range of concerns of the public toward different bioremediation strategies and long-term stewardship; (2) creating materials and delivery methods that address bioremediation issues; and (3) assessing the effectiveness of the consensus workshop in identifying concerns about bioremediation and involving the public in a dialogue about their use. After a brief description of the Idaho workshop, we discuss the range of concerns articulated by the participants about bioremediation, discuss the materials and delivery methods used to communicate information about bioremediation, and assess the effectiveness of the consensus workshop. In summary we found that panel members in general: understood complex technical issues, especially when given enough time in a facilitated discussion with experts; are generally accepting of in situ bioremediation, but concerned about costs, safety, and effectiveness of the technology; are concerned equally about technology and decision processes; and liked the consensus workshop approach to learning about bioremediation.

  18. Expert consultation on the optimal duration of exclusive breastfeeding: the process, recommendations, and challenges for the future.

    PubMed

    Habicht, Jean-Pierre

    2004-01-01

    In March, 2001 The World Health Organization (WHO) convened an Expert Consultation to recommend to WHO an optimal duration of exclusive breastfeeding. WHO formulated the specific questions to be addressed, selected the membership for the meeting, prepared background documents, and provided the venue for the meeting. After the meeting WHO formally accepted the recommendations and began to implement them. The Consultation recommended that WHO change its recommendation on exclusive breastfeeding from four-to-six months to a recommendation to promote exclusive breastfeeding for six months. This recommendation was contingent upon WHO also accepting and implementing other recommendations to deal with possible detrimental side effects, and to support mothers who did not exclusively breastfeed for six months. The amount of scientific evidence available was more than is often available for policy decisions in health, but much less than desirable to address issues of generalizability across and within populations. The evidence for the contingent recommendations was also less than desirable and raises a number of important research questions that now need to be addressed. PMID:15384568

  19. How experiences become data: the process of eliciting adverse event, medical history and concomitant medication reports in antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurately characterizing a drug’s safety profile is essential. Trial harm and tolerability assessments rely, in part, on participants’ reports of medical histories, adverse events (AEs), and concomitant medications. Optimal methods for questioning participants are unclear, but different methods giving different results can undermine meta-analyses. This study compared methods for eliciting such data and explored reasons for dissimilar participant responses. Methods Participants from open-label antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials in two distinct sites (South Africa, n = 18 [all HIV positive]; Tanzania, n = 80 [86% HIV positive]) were asked about ill health and treatment use by sequential use of (1) general enquiries without reference to particular conditions, body systems or treatments, (2) checklists of potential health issues and treatments, (3) in-depth interviews. Participants’ experiences of illness and treatment and their reporting behaviour were explored qualitatively, as were trial clinicians’ experiences with obtaining participant reports. Outcomes were the number and nature of data by questioning method, themes from qualitative analyses and a theoretical interpretation of participants’ experiences. Results There was an overall cumulative increase in the number of reports from general enquiry through checklists to in-depth interview; in South Africa, an additional 12 medical histories, 21 AEs and 27 medications; in Tanzania an additional 260 medical histories, 1 AE and 11 medications. Checklists and interviews facilitated recognition of health issues and treatments, and consideration of what to report. Information was sometimes not reported because participants forgot, it was considered irrelevant or insignificant, or they feared reporting. Some medicine names were not known and answers to questions were considered inferior to blood tests for detecting ill health. South African inpatient volunteers exhibited a “trial citizenship”, working to achieve researchers’ goals, while Tanzanian outpatients sometimes deferred responsibility for identifying items to report to trial clinicians. Conclusions Questioning methods and trial contexts influence the detection of adverse events, medical histories and concomitant medications. There should be further methodological work to investigate these influences and find appropriate questioning methods. PMID:24229315

  20. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  1. Problem Solving: Learning from Experts and Novices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dufresne, Robert J.

    One approach to the study of cognitive processes highlights the distinctions between expert and novice problem solvers. This approach attempts to discover how experts and novices differ in the way they organize, retain and use domain related knowledge. It appears to some that what is learned from expert-novice research can help teachers to teach


  2. Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-06-01

    It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

  3. Spoonerisms as Sequencer Conflicts: Evidence from Artifically Elicited Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baars, Bernard J.; Motley, Michael T.

    1976-01-01

    Presents evidence that spoonerisms result from a conflict in word sequencing that carries through to phoneme sequencing, and in the process illustrates the use of some techniques for the experimental elicitation of spoonerisms. (Author/RK)

  4. A guide to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Waterman, D.

    1986-01-01

    This is a general guide to expert systems written specifically for the reader without a computer science background. Contents: Introduction; Introduction to expert systems; Expert system tools; Building an expert system; Difficulties with expert system development; Expert systems in the marketplace; Expert systems and tools; Glossary of expert system terms; References; Author index; Subject index.

  5. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  6. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, InĂȘs Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  7. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, InĂȘs Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  8. What Are Expert Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Agapeyeff, A.

    1986-01-01

    Intended for potential business users, this paper describes the main characteristics of expert systems; discusses practical use considerations; presents a taxonomy of the systems; and reviews several expert system development projects in business and industry. (MBR)

  9. Overview of expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gevarter, W.B.

    1982-01-01

    The article provides an overview of expert systems-currently the most popular topic in the field of artifical intelligence. Expert systems are computer programs that use knowledge and reasoning techniques to solve problems difficult enough to normally require the services of a human expert. Topics covered include: what an expert system is, techniques used, existing systems, applications, major participants, the state of the art, research requirements, and future trends and opportunities. 8 references.

  10. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  11. Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

    2000-01-01

    This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

  12. Knowledge acquisition for a simple expert controller

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bieker, B.

    1987-01-01

    A method is presented for process control which has the properties of being incremental, cyclic and top-down. It is described on the basis of the development of an expert controller for a simple, but nonlinear control route. A quality comparison between expert controller and process operator shows the ability of the method for knowledge acquisition.

  13. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  14. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. ); Jackson, J.R. )

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  15. The use of fuzzy control system methods for characterizing expert judgment uncertainty distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.E.; Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Parkinson, W.J.; Meyer, M.A.; Jamshidi, M.

    1998-12-01

    Fuzzy logic methods permit experts to assess parameters affecting performance of components/systems in natural language terms more familiar to them (e.g., high, good, etc.). Recognizing that there is a cost associated with obtaining more precise information, the authors particular interest is in cases where the relationship between the condition of the system and its performance is not well understood, especially for some sets of possible operating conditions, and where developing a better understanding is very difficult and/or expensive. The methods allow the experts to make use of the level of precision with which they understand the underlying process. The authors consider and compare various methods of formulating the process just described, with an application in reliability analysis where expert information forms a significant (if not sole) source of data for reliability analysis. The flow of information through the fuzzy-control-systems based analysis is studied using a simple, hypothetical problem which mimics the structure used to elicit expert information in Parse. They also characterize the effect of using progressively more refined information and examine the use of fuzzy-based methods as data pooling/fusion mechanisms.

  16. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hossain, Shamina S.

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The ïŹrst method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  17. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component hasmore »degraded.« less

  18. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component has degraded.

  19. Liquid-Oxygen Expert System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jamieson, John R., Jr.; Delaune, Carl I.

    1988-01-01

    Complicated system monitored for equipment failures. Report summarizes structure, capabilities, and development history of Liquid-Oxygen Expert System (LES). Designed to detect immediately signs of trouble among measurements fed into current Launch Processing System (LPS). LES contains three elements: knowledge base, constraint mechanism, and diagnoser. Output of LES in form of written reports.

  20. Expert systems in government symposium

    SciTech Connect

    Karna, K.N.

    1985-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a symposium on various applications of expert systems. Topics considered at the symposium included knowledge-based reasoning, new directions in knowledge acquisition, software, programming languages, systems engineering, intelligent information retrieval, reactor safety assessment, medical applications, uncertainty management, algorithms, parallel processing, and artificial intelligence.

  1. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  2. Forensic experts' perceptions of expert bias.

    PubMed

    Commons, Michael Lamport; Miller, Patrice Marie; Li, Eva Yujia; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    How do expert witnesses perceive the possible biases of their fellow expert witnesses? Participants, who were attendees at a workshop at the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law were asked to rate for their biasing potential a number of situations that might affect the behavior of an opposing expert. A Rasch analysis produced a linear scale as to the perceived biasing potential of these different kinds of situations from the most biasing to the least biasing. Working for only one side in both civil and criminal cases had large scaled values and also were the first factor. In interesting contrast, a) an opposing expert also serving as the litigant's treater and b) an opposing expert being viewed as a "hired gun" (supplying an opinion only for money) were two situations viewed as not very biasing. Order of Hierarchical Complexity also accounted for items from the 1st, 2nd and 3rd factors. The result suggests that the difficulty in understanding the conceptual basis of bias underlies the perception of how biased a behavior or a situation is. The more difficult to understand the questionnaire item, the less biasing its behavior or situation is perceived by participants. PMID:23046867

  3. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  4. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W.; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills. PMID:25206348

  5. Testing expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C. L.; Stachowitz, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    Software quality is of primary concern in all large-scale expert system development efforts. Building appropriate validation and test tools for ensuring software reliability of expert systems is therefore required. The Expert Systems Validation Associate (EVA) is a validation system under development at the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center. EVA provides a wide range of validation and test tools to check correctness, consistency, and completeness of an expert system. Testing a major function of EVA. It means executing an expert system with test cases with the intent of finding errors. In this paper, we describe many different types of testing such as function-based testing, structure-based testing, and data-based testing. We describe how appropriate test cases may be selected in order to perform good and thorough testing of an expert system.

  6. Introduction to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Jackson, P.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems have become one of the most exciting applications within the domain of artificial intelligence. Further interest has been provoked by Japan's Fifth Generation Project, which identifies expert or knowledge-based systems as a key element in the computer systems of the future. This book presents an introduction to expert systems at a level suited to the undergraduate student and the interested layman. It surveys the three main techniques for knowledge representation - rules, frames and logic. and describes in detail the expert systems which employ them. Contents: Expert systems and artificial intelligence; Formalisms for knowledge representation; MYCIN; Medical diagnosis using rules. MYCIN derivatives; TEIRESIAS, EMYCIN, and GUIDON; RI: recognition as a problem-solving strategy; CENTAUR: a combination of frames metalevel inference and commonsense reasoning in MECHO; Tools for building expert systems; Summary and conclusions; Exercises.

  7. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  8. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control for voicing with optimal coping effects in teachers. 1. A process of awareness--an expert's opinion.

    PubMed

    Van Opstal, Magda J M Carola

    2010-01-01

    A learning strategy is presented for eustress-euvoicing, which prevails over distress-disvoicing. It is based on the understanding of the mechanisms of stress-voicing, conceived as a dynamic circular process of interacting entities, i.e. stressors/signals-arousal/activation-emotion-coping-effects (SAECE), which is the rationale for a multidisciplinary approach in coaching professional voice users. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control (SHIPS) is directed by functional analysis and consists of awareness and change. Emotion, a mixture of appraisal, affect and movement, is the pivot in SHIPS. SHIPS with (student) teachers aims at the competence of voicing (V) in an optimal (O) way of coping (C), which means vocal communication that is effective (E) to meet a balance in physical, interpersonal and existential wellness when responding to demands and challenges in the individual teacher's (T) field of communication (VOCE-T). The process of awareness intends to understand the course of multiple interactions in SAECE that condition eustressors and distressors related to (non)-integrated coping. The (student) teacher and coach are conscious and active participants in the process of awareness that is dynamic and evolving and aims at the preparedness to change non-desirable habits and skill modes into VOCE-T. PMID:20093846

  9. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  10. EASy: Expert authorizations system

    SciTech Connect

    Altfeld, J.; Landon, D.F.; Daniels, C.J.

    1996-12-31

    Equifax Check Services provides retail merchants and other businesses with quality decisions concerning the acceptability. risk. or fraudulence of customer checks. The greatest percentage of these decisions are provided automatically through on-line links with point-of-sale terminals. When a transaction is suspect, a referral notice is generated directing the merchant to call one of Equifax Check Services` authorization centers for additional processing. This processing considers a wide variety of information unavailable through online processing, thereby giving consumers the greatest possible benefit of doubt prior to declining checks. These high-risk authorizations had historically been handled using a legacy mainframe system involving a high degree of manual intervention. Authorizations agents would complete a lengthy, rigorous training regimen, and be monitored as to their performance. Pursuit of service excellence caused Equifax, in conjunction with Brightware Corporation, to develop the Expert Authorization System (EASy), a rule-based solution for check authorizations that uses an innovative twist on a standard blackboard architecture. EASy was deployed and is used today by as many as 300 concurrent users. By encapsulating extensive domain knowledge, EASy has effectively eliminated authorization errors, provided consistent and replicable decisions, reduced elapsed time to a decision, and reduced the average agent training time from 4-6 weeks to 3 days.

  11. Beyond metformin: safety considerations in the decision-making process for selecting a second medication for type 2 diabetes management: reflections from a diabetes care editors' expert forum.

    PubMed

    Cefalu, William T; Buse, John B; Del Prato, Stefano; Home, Philip D; LeRoith, Derek; Nauck, Michael A; Raz, Itamar; Rosenstock, Julio; Riddle, Matthew C

    2014-09-01

    The trend toward personalized management of diabetes has focused attention on the differences among available pharmacological agents in terms of mechanisms of action, efficacy, and, most important, safety. Clinicians must select from these features to develop individualized therapy regimens. In June 2013, a nine-member Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to review safety evidence for six major diabetes drug classes: insulin, sulfonylureas (SUs), thiazolidinediones (TZDs), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. This article, an outgrowth of the forum, summarizes well-delineated and theoretical safety concerns related to these drug classes, as well as the panelists' opinions regarding their best use in patients with type 2 diabetes. All of the options appear to have reasonably wide safety margins when used appropriately. Those about which we know the most-metformin, SUs, insulin, and perhaps now also TZDs-are efficacious in most patients and can be placed into a basic initial algorithm. However, these agents leave some clinical needs unmet. Selecting next steps is a more formidable process involving newer agents that are understood less well and for which there are unresolved questions regarding risk versus benefit in certain populations. Choosing a specific agent is not as important as implementing some form of early intervention and advancing rapidly to some form of combination therapy as needed. When all options are relatively safe given the benefits they confer, therapeutic decision making must rely on a personalized approach, taking into account patients' clinical circumstances, phenotype, pathophysiological defects, preferences, abilities, and costs. PMID:25147257

  12. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  13. Building expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Hayes-Roth, F.; Waterman, D.A.; Lenat, D.B.

    1983-01-01

    This book presents papers on the design of expert systems. Topics considered include basic concepts, computer architecture, reasoning, languages and tools for knowledge engineering, typical problems for expert systems, case studies, and the use of knowledge engineering for the emergency management of inland oil an hazardous chemical spills.

  14. Ethical Expert Systems

    PubMed Central

    Victoroff, Michael S.

    1985-01-01

    The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

  15. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  16. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  17. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  18. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  19. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through…

  20. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through


  1. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an


  2. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

  3. [Expert systems in gastroenterology].

    PubMed

    Masic, Izet; Gribajcevi?, Mehmed; Pandza, Haris

    2002-01-01

    Expert systems are the software systems developed by the application of the various intelligence, which could successfully compete to peoples-experts, and have the consultant function with the characteristics of the explanations and the advices in some specific domain. These are, in essence, the intelligent information systems, which consists several thousands of the rules from the definite problem field and which are capable to explain their decisions. The knowledge systems are lesser software systems, also developed by means of the technique of the artificial intelligence which are usually less successful in some field of knowledge of the experts. In the paper are presented the basic characteristics three most often applied expert systems in gastroenterology: Quick Medical Reference (QMR), HEPAT, ILIAD. PMID:12055728

  4. An expert generalist.

    PubMed

    Hargreaves, Robin

    2016-01-30

    Although he has never actively pursued any special interest within veterinary practice, Robin Hargreaves explains why he believes 'expert generalists' are essential to the animals that are at the heart of the communities they serve. PMID:26823324

  5. Transferring Knowledge: A Parallel between Teaching Chemical Engineering and Developing Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberge, P. R.

    1990-01-01

    Discussed are expert systems development and teaching, the representation and processing of knowledge, knowledge representation in chemical engineering, and expert systems in chemical engineering. The seven phases of expert system development are illustrated. (CW)

  6. Corrosion consultant expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Mo, Y.L.

    1994-12-31

    The development and use of an expert system to recommend coatings for flue gas desulfurization (FGD) plant is described. The system ranks coatings by their material properties, experimental test and plant performance scores when the component to be coated and its working environment are specified. The user interface, the inference engine, the knowledge base and the implementation of the expert system are presented with comments on its suitability and application for corrosion consultations.

  7. Endotoxin elicits ambivalent social behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Yee, Jason R.; Prendergast, Brian J.

    2013-01-01

    Summary The acute phase response to infection is reliably accompanied by decreases in social investigation; however, social behavior is commonly assayed in inescapable environments using unfamiliar social stimuli. In this experiment, male Wistar rats were raised from weaning with 2 familiar, same-sex conspecifics. In adulthood, rats were implanted with radiotelemetry devices that permitted localization in space, and were challenged with LPS treatments (150 mg/kg, i.p.) in a novel, semi-natural arena which afforded the treated (Focal) animal exclusive control of social exposure, and the ability to avoid social interactions. LPS reliably elicited thermoregulatory responses (transient hypothermia and fever) during the scotophase following injection, but did not yield changes in the proportion of time spent engaged in social interactions: both LPS- and saline-treated rats spent approximately 10% of the night with their familiar cagemates. Injection treatments markedly altered the spatial distribution of activity: LPS-treated rats exhibited significant increases in the amount of time spent as far as possible from their cagemates. The data suggest that sickness responses to LPS may give rise to a transient state of social ambivalence—characterized by a persistent motivation to engage in social contact, but also by increased avoidance of social environments. Selective maintenance of social motivation illustrates plasticity in the expression of sickness behaviors and may be adaptive in social species. PMID:22172640

  8. Eliciting consumer preferences for health plans.

    PubMed Central

    Booske, B C; Sainfort, F; Hundt, A S

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine (1) what people say is important to them in choosing a health plan; (2) the effect, if any, that giving health plan information has on what people say is important to them; and (3) the effect of preference elicitation methods on what people say is important. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTINGS: A random sample of 201 Wisconsin state employees who participated in a health plan choice experiment during the 1995 open enrollment period. STUDY DESIGN: We designed a computer system to guide subjects through the review of information about health plan options. The system began by eliciting the stated preferences of the subjects before they viewed the information, at time 0. Subjects were given an opportunity to revise their preference structures first after viewing summary information about four health plans (time 1) and then after viewing more extensive, detailed information about the same options (time 2). At time 2, these individuals were also asked to rate the relative importance of a predefined list of health plan features presented to them. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data were collected on the number of attributes listed at each point in time and the importance weightings assigned to each attribute. In addition, each item on the attribute list was content analyzed. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The provision of information changes the preference structures of individuals. Costs (price) and coverage dominated the attributes cited both before and after looking at health plan information. When presented with information on costs, quality, and how plans work, many of these relatively well educated consumers revised their preference structures; yet coverage and costs remained the primary cited attributes. CONCLUSIONS: Although efforts to provide health plan information should continue, decisions on the information to provide and on making it available are not enough. Individuals need help in understanding, processing, and using the information to construct their preferences and make better decisions. PMID:10536973

  9. Expert systems for Space Station automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Georgeff, M. P.; Firschein, O.

    1985-01-01

    The expert systems required for automating key functions of the Manned Space Station (MSS) are explored. It is necessary that the expert systems developed be flexible, degrade gracefully in the case of a failure, and be able to work with incomplete data. The AI systems will have to perform interpretation and diagnosis, design, prediction and induction, and monitoring and control functions. Both quantitative and qualitative reasoning capabilities need improvements, as do automatic verification techniques, explanation and learning capabilities, and the use of metaknowledge, i. e., knowledge about the knowledge contained in the knowledge base. Information retrieval, fault isolation and manufacturing process control demonstrations are needed to validate expert systems for the MSS.

  10. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component hasmore » degraded.« less

  11. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  12. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-10-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  13. Photo-Elicitation and Visual Semiotics: A Unique Methodology for Studying Inclusion for Children with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stockall, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    The methodology in this paper discusses the use of photographs as an elicitation strategy that can reveal the thinking processes of participants in a qualitatively rich manner. Photo-elicitation techniques combined with a Piercian semiotic perspective offer a unique method for creating a frame of action for later participant analysis. Illustrative…

  14. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, Jerry L.; Petrik, Edward J.; Roth, Mary Ellen; Truong, Long Van; Quinn, Todd; Krawczonek, Walter M.

    1990-01-01

    The Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) system was designed to monitor and diagnose fault conditions that occur within the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (SSF/EPS) Testbed. APEX is designed to interface with SSF/EPS testbed power management controllers to provide enhanced autonomous operation and control capability. The APEX architecture consists of three components: (1) a rule-based expert system, (2) a testbed data acquisition interface, and (3) a power scheduler interface. Fault detection, fault isolation, justification of probable causes, recommended actions, and incipient fault analysis are the main functions of the expert system component. The data acquisition component requests and receives pertinent parametric values from the EPS testbed and asserts the values into a knowledge base. Power load profile information is obtained from a remote scheduler through the power scheduler interface component. The current APEX design and development work is discussed. Operation and use of APEX by way of the user interface screens is also covered.

  15. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D.; Hand, Un Kyong |

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  16. Intelligent interfaces for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Villarreal, James A.; Wang, Lui

    1988-01-01

    Vital to the success of an expert system is an interface to the user which performs intelligently. A generic intelligent interface is being developed for expert systems. This intelligent interface was developed around the in-house developed Expert System for the Flight Analysis System (ESFAS). The Flight Analysis System (FAS) is comprised of 84 configuration controlled FORTRAN subroutines that are used in the preflight analysis of the space shuttle. In order to use FAS proficiently, a person must be knowledgeable in the areas of flight mechanics, the procedures involved in deploying a certain payload, and an overall understanding of the FAS. ESFAS, still in its developmental stage, is taking into account much of this knowledge. The generic intelligent interface involves the integration of a speech recognizer and synthesizer, a preparser, and a natural language parser to ESFAS. The speech recognizer being used is capable of recognizing 1000 words of connected speech. The natural language parser is a commercial software package which uses caseframe instantiation in processing the streams of words from the speech recognizer or the keyboard. The systems configuration is described along with capabilities and drawbacks.

  17. Three image experts which help distinguish lung tumors from non-tumors. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Lampeter, W.

    1984-02-01

    The design of three vision-expert programs is described. The vision experts are based on appearance models of objects in a typical chest radiograph which were derived using information from human experts. Each expert is based on a different technical concept. The rib expert uses relational constraints on parameter (Hough transform) space to determine if a rib has been detected; the vascularity expert uses a back-projected Hough transform; and the nodule expert uses features which were derived from studies of the nodule recognition process of radiologistics. The efficacy of the descriptive models and their implementations are evaluated. The process of development and implementation of image experts are discussed.

  18. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--medical expert assessment from the viewpoint of the attorney].

    PubMed

    Dierks, C

    1996-11-01

    Dealing with a medical expert assessment requires experience and perseverance of the lawyer. Exact knowledge about the expert opinion itself and the procedural options is of greatest importance due to the decisive impact of the medical expert assessment on the outcome of the lawsuit. The lawyer has to consider at any time of the process whether he can initiate an expert assessment, whether he has to evaluate, criticize or question obtained expert assessments, whether he has to challenge the expert or possibly has to introduce another expert into the lawsuit. The expert witness has to have professional knowledge and the lawyer as well as the court have to absorb this knowledge and use it accordingly. PMID:9064931

  19. Robot environment expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The Robot Environment Expert System uses a hexidecimal tree data structure to model a complex robot environment where not only the robot arm moves, but also the robot itself and other objects may move. The hextree model allows dynamic updating, collision avoidance and path planning over time, to avoid moving objects.

  20. Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and geology)…

  1. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  2. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  3. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

    1998-03-30

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  4. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C., LLNL

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  5. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  6. Expert Script Generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sliwa, Nancy E.; Cooper, Eric G.

    1991-01-01

    Program provides additional level of interface to facilitate use of telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is software package automatically generating high-level task objective commands from complex menu-driven language of the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Laboratory (ISRL). Makes telerobotics laboratory accessible to researchers not familiar with comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with various systems of ISRL test bed. Incorporates expert-system technology to capture typical rules of operation that skilled operator uses. Result: operator interfact optimizing ability of system to perform task remotely in hazardous environment, in timely manner, and without undue stress to operator, while minimizing change for operator erros that damage equipment. Written in CLIPS.

  7. Make yourself an expert.

    PubMed

    Leonard, Dorothy; Barton, Gavin; Barton, Michelle

    2013-04-01

    Almost every organization has people it can't do without--specialists with "deep smarts," who are the go-to experts on critical issues. But because their knowledge is experienced-based, it's often instinctive and unarticulated, and never gets passed on. Capturing it is a challenge for both the organization and for colleagues who wish to become in-house authorities themselves. This article offers a methodical system for acquiring deep smarts from an expert. It involves observing that person extensively to understand what makes him successful, practicing the behaviors he exhibits on your own, partnering with him to solve problems, and ultimately taking responsibility for some of his tasks. Describing the experiences of one executive as she takes this journey with a mentor, the authors show how you too can gain the wisdom that will make you indispensable to your firm. PMID:23593772

  8. An Exploratory Study of Expert Group Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubel, Deborah J.; Kline, William B.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the results of a grounded theory exploration that described expert group leaders' experiences and perceptions during the process of leading groups in terms of influence of experience, preexisting knowledge and attitudes, and in-the-moment leadership process. The discussion presents implications for practice, counselor…

  9. ALICE Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, C.; Carena, F.

    2014-06-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period.

  10. Project Management Patterns to Prevent Schedule Delay Caused by Requirement Elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hori, Shozo; Nakatani, Takako; Katamine, Keiichi; Ubayashi, Naoyasu; Hashimoto, Masaaki

    We propose PM (Project Management) patterns to prevent schedule delays caused by changes in requirements on empirical studies. Changes or late elicitation of requirements during the design, coding and test processes are one of the most serious risks, which may delay project schedules. However, changes and late elicitation of requirements are usually accepted during development processes. Therefore, the PM methods for preventing schedule delays caused by changes and late elicitation of requirements during development processes are an important area of study. In this study, we examined the actual conditions of various projects which succeeded in preventing schedule delays resulting from changes and late elicitation of requirements during development processes. We were able to extract various typical PM techniques for preventing these schedule delays. The techniques, known as “PM patterns”, were also applied to other projects. The patterns were arranged on a two-dimensional framework. We discuss a framework of PM patterns aimed at solving the problems caused by changes in requirements.

  11. [The expert patient: medical consequences].

    PubMed

    Nagel, G

    2006-12-01

    The expression expert patient appeared about ten years ago. It defines the role of patients who are actively involved in their disease management. Most clinical oncologists are challenged by expert patients. Patient's expertise and complementary medicine are closely linked. Physicians respecting expert patients have to find a positive attitude towards patient self aide concepts. The medical skill to manage expert patients is increasingly important and new tools are being developed for support. PMID:17213970

  12. Use of expert judgment in exposure assessment: part 2. Calibration of expert judgments about personal exposures to benzene.

    PubMed

    Walker, Katherine D; Catalano, Paul; Hammitt, James K; Evans, John S

    2003-01-01

    The recent movement of regulatory agencies toward probabilistic analyses of human health and environmental risks has focused greater attention on the quality of the estimates of variability and uncertainty that underlie them. Of particular concern is how uncertainty--a measure of what is not known--is characterized, as uncertainty can play an influential role in analyses of the need for regulatory controls or in estimates of the economic value of additional research. This paper reports the second phase of a study, conducted as an element of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS), to obtain and calibrate exposure assessment experts judgments about uncertainty in residential ambient, residential indoor, and personal air benzene concentrations experienced by the nonsmoking, nonoccupationally exposed population in U.S. EPA's Region V. Subjective judgments (i.e., the median, interquartile range, and 90% confidence interval) about the means and 90th percentiles of each of the benzene distributions were elicited from the seven experts participating in the study. The calibration or quality of the experts' judgments was assessed by comparing them to the actual measurements from the NHEXAS Region V study using graphical techniques, a quadratic scoring rule, and surprise and interquartile indices. The results from both quantitative scoring methods suggested that, considered collectively, the experts' judgments were relatively well calibrated although on balance, underconfident. The calibration of individual expert judgments appeared variable, highlighting potential pitfalls in reliance on individual experts. In a surprising finding, the experts' judgments about the 90th percentiles of the benzene distributions were better calibrated than their predictions about the means; the experts tended to be overconfident in their ability to predict the means. This paper is also one of the first calibration studies to demonstrate the importance of taking into account intraexpert correlation on the statistical significance of the findings. When the judgments were assumed to be independent, analysis of the surprise and interquartile indices found evidence of poor calibration (P<0.05). However, when the intraexpert correlation in the study was taken into account, these findings were no longer statistically significant. The analysis further found that the experts' judgments scored better than estimates of Region V benzene concentrations simply drawn from earlier studies of ambient, indoor and personal benzene levels in other U.S. cities. These results suggest the value of careful elicitation of expert judgments in characterizing exposures in probabilistic form. Additional calibration studies need to be undertaken to corroborate and extend these findings. PMID:12595879

  13. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1986-01-01

    The article discusses the characteristics of expert systems (computer programs designed to replicate human expertise in a variety of areas), describes recently available expert system development tools, suggests applications within the field of special education, and reviews recent efforts to apply expert systems technology to special education…

  14. Films for eliciting emotional states in children.

    PubMed

    von Leupoldt, Andreas; Rohde, Jenny; Beregova, Anna; Thordsen-Sörensen, Imke; zur Nieden, Janine; Dahme, Bernhard

    2007-08-01

    Standardized sets of films have been shown to be effective for eliciting emotional states in adults, but no comparable validated stimuli are available for children. We therefore examined the effects of three pre-selected film clips each of 3-min duration in eliciting a pleasant, neutral and unpleasant emotional state in 297 children aged between 6 and 12 years. After the films were presented on a video projector, affective ratings were obtained with the Self-Assessment-Manikin on the emotional dimensions of valence and arousal. Increasing pleasure ratings were observed from the unpleasant to the neutral to the pleasant film. Associated arousal ratings were stronger for the unpleasant and pleasant films compared to the neutral film. Overall, results showed successful elicitation of targeted emotional states only marginally influenced by age, gender or prior experience with the films. The use of these films is therefore suggested for future studies on emotions in children. PMID:17958174

  15. Using transcription machinery engineering to elicit complex cellular phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Lanza, Amanda M; Alper, Hal S

    2012-01-01

    Cellular hosts are widely used for the production of chemical compounds, including pharmaceutics, fuels, and specialty chemicals. However, common metabolic engineering techniques are limited in their capacity to elicit multigenic, complex phenotypes. These phenotypes can include non-pathway-based traits, such as tolerance and productivity. Global transcription machinery engineering (gTME) is a generic methodology for eliciting these complex cellular phenotypes. In gTME, dominant mutant alleles of a transcription-related protein are screened for their ability to reprogram cellular metabolism and regulation, resulting in a unique and desired phenotype. gTME has been successfully applied to both prokaryotic and eukaryotic systems, resulting in improved environmental tolerances, metabolite production, and substrate utilization. The underlying principle involves creating mutant libraries of transcription factors, screening for a desired phenotype, and iterating the process in a directed evolution fashion. The successes of this approach and details for its implementation and application are described here. PMID:22083746

  16. The Principles of Designing an Expert System in Teaching Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salekhova, Lailya; Nurgaliev, Albert; Zaripova, Rinata; Khakimullina, Nailya

    2013-01-01

    This study reveals general didactic concepts of the Expert Systems (ES) development process in the educational area. The proof of concept is based on the example of teaching the 8th grade Algebra subject. The main contribution in this work is the implementation of innovative approaches in analysis and processing of data by expert system as well as…

  17. Overproduction timing errors in expert dancers.

    PubMed

    Minvielle-Moncla, Joëlle; Audiffren, Michel; Macar, Françoise; Vallet, Cécile

    2008-07-01

    The authors investigated how expert dancers achieve accurate timing under various conditions. They designed the conditions to interfere with the dancers' attention to time and to test the explanation of the interference effect provided in the attentional model of time processing. Participants were 17 expert contemporary dancers who performed a freely chosen duration while walking and executing a bilateral cyclic arm movement over a given distance. The dancers reproduced that duration in different situations of interference. The process yielded temporal overproductions, validating the attentional model and extending its application to expert populations engaged in complex motor situations. The finding that the greatest overproduction occurred in the transfer-with-improvisation condition suggests that improvisation within a time deadline requires specific training. PMID:18628106

  18. The imported forensic expert

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, C.P.

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  19. Auditory memory function in expert chess players

    PubMed Central

    Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. Methods: The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. Results: The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≀ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Conclusion: Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time. PMID:26793666

  20. Evaluation of high-level waste pretreatment processes with an approximate reasoning model

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Agnew, S.F.

    1999-04-01

    The development of an approximate-reasoning (AR)-based model to analyze pretreatment options for high-level waste is presented. AR methods are used to emulate the processes used by experts in arriving at a judgment. In this paper, the authors first consider two specific issues in applying AR to the analysis of pretreatment options. They examine how to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence to infer the acceptability of a process result using the example of cesium content in low-level waste. They then demonstrate the use of simple physical models to structure expert elicitation and to produce inferences consistent with a problem involving waste particle size effects.

  1. Toward disaster-resilient cities: characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.

    PubMed

    Chang, Stephanie E; McDaniels, Timothy; Fox, Jana; Dhariwal, Rajan; Longstaff, Holly

    2014-03-01

    Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors. PMID:24152135

  2. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling an dynamic replanning.

  3. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling and dynamic replanning.

  4. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential. PMID:24730171

  5. Knowledge elicitation techniques and application to nuclear plant maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, E. Kevin

    The new millennium has brought with it the opportunity of global trade which in turn requires the utmost in efficiency from each individual industry. This includes the nuclear power industry, a point which was emphasized when the electrical generation industry began to be de regulated across North America the late 1990s and re-emphasized when the northeast power grid of North America collapsed in the summer of 2003. This dissertation deals with reducing the cost of the maintenance function of Candu nuclear power plants and initiating a strong link between universities and the Canadian nuclear industry. Various forms of RCM (reliability-centred maintenance) have been the tools of choice in industry for improving the maintenance function during the last 20 years. In this project, pilot studies, conducted at Bruce Power between 1999 and 2005, and reported on in this dissertation, lay out a path to implement statistical improvements as the next step after RCM in reducing the cost of the maintenance. Elicitation protocols, designed for the age group being elicited, address the much-documented issue of a lack of data. Clear, graphical, inferential statistical interfaces are accentuated and developed to aid in building the teams required to implement the various methodologies and to help in achieving funding targets. Graphical analysis and Crow/AMSAA (army materials systems analysis activity) plots are developed and demonstrated from the point of view of justifying the expenditures of cost reduction efforts. This dissertation ultimately speaks to the great opportunity being presented by this approach at this time: of capturing the baby-boom generation's huge pool of knowledge before those people retire. It is expected that the protocols and procedures referenced here will have applicability across the many disciplines where collecting expert information from a similar age group is required.

  6. Developing Research Priorities with a Cohort of Higher Education for Sustainability Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Tarah S. A.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the results of a Delphi exercise used at the Halifax Consultation in which 35 experts representing 17 countries gathered to develop research priorities for the emerging field of higher education for sustainability (HES). Design/methodology/approach: The Delphi technique was used to elicit the…

  7. Information/Knowledge Acquisition Methods for Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Heng-Li

    1995-01-01

    Compares information requirement-elicitation (IRE) methods for decision support systems (DSS) with knowledge acquisition (KA) methods for expert systems (ES) development. The definition and architectures of ES and DSS are compared and the systems' development cycles and IRE/KA methods are discussed. Differences are noted between ES and DSS…

  8. Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts’ estimates

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Governments sometimes face important decisions in the absence of direct evidence. In these cases, expert elicitation methods can be used to quantify uncertainty. We report the results of an expert elicitation study regarding the likely impact on smoking rates in adults and children of plain packaging of tobacco products. Methods Thirty-three tobacco control experts were recruited from the UK (n = 14), Australasia (n = 12) and North America (n = 7). Experts’ estimates were individually elicited via telephone interviews, and then linearly pooled. Elicited estimates consisted of (1) the most likely, (2) the highest possible, and (3) the lowest possible value for the percentage of (a) adult smokers and (b) children trying smoking, two years after the introduction of plain packaging (all other things being constant) in a target country in the expert’s region of residence. Results The median estimate for the impact on adult smoking prevalence was a 1 percentage point decline (99% range 2.25 to 0), and for the percentage of children trying smoking was a 3 percentage point decline (99% range 6.1 to 0), the latter estimated impact being larger than the former (P < 0.001, sign test). There were no differences in either estimate by region (I2: Adults: 0; Children: 0) but there was considerable variability between experts’ estimates within regions (I2: Adults: 0.91; Children: 0.89). Conclusions In the absence of direct evidence for the impact of introducing plain packaging on smoking rates in adults and children, this study shows that tobacco control experts felt the most likely outcomes would be a reduction in smoking prevalence in adults, and a greater reduction in the numbers of children trying smoking, although there was substantial variability in the estimated size of these impacts. No experts judged an increase in smoking as a likely outcome. PMID:23302325

  9. Applications of artificial intelligence and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    This book contains over 30 papers. Some of the titles are: operating systems for CD/ROM; the impact of optical storage technology on education; the future of expert systems in the financial services industry; the future of compact disk/DC-1 explosive ordinance disposal rendered safe information system; and will artificial intelligence improve computer based training (CBT) development process.

  10. APPLICATIONS OF EXPERT SYSTEMS IN ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Expert systems are a promising computer-based approach to helping environmental engineers solve difficult problems. A number of such systems have been developed to date in the areas of hazard assessment, modeling support, process failure diagnosis, and regulatory support. The US ...

  11. Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

    2003-01-01

    Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

  12. Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

    1990-01-01

    We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

  13. Osteopathic physicians and expert medical testimony.

    PubMed

    McAbee, G N

    1997-01-01

    The US Supreme Court addressed the issue of expert medical and scientific testimony in the 1993 case Daubert v Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The guidelines to be used as a standard for expert medical witnesses under Daubert differ from earlier standards used by many courts for more than 70 years. This commentary reviews the history of previous and current standards used to determine admissibility of medical testimony in legal proceedings and discusses the ramifications of these standards for osteopathic physicians involved in the medical malpractice process. PMID:9029880

  14. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  15. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  16. The SIGNAL expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Struve, R.

    1996-12-31

    The SIGNAL insurance companies have developed an expert system for the support of its customer sales service. It was introduced at the end of 1993 and is currently used by approximately 500 customer service representatives. It involves a counseling system, which enables customer sales personnel to produce high-quality benefit analyses at the point of sale. It is not only an information system for the agent but involves the customer in an active role (through the implementation of sales talks, the conscious visualization of facts, the generation of natural language explanations etc.). Thus, the customer is not faced with a fait accompli but is actively involved in solving the problem. To meet these requirements, several Al techniques are used, as described further below. The application has increased sales efficiency, optimized customer contact time and decreased training requirements. The system is developed with KEE (and reimplemented in Allegro CL/PC) and runs on notebooks with 8 MB RAM.

  17. Expert System Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1989-01-01

    C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is a software shell for developing expert systems is designed to allow research and development of artificial intelligence on conventional computers. Originally developed by Johnson Space Center, it enables highly efficient pattern matching. A collection of conditions and actions to be taken if the conditions are met is built into a rule network. Additional pertinent facts are matched to the rule network. Using the program, E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. is monitoring chemical production machines; California Polytechnic State University is investigating artificial intelligence in computer aided design; Mentor Graphics has built a new Circuit Synthesis system, and Brooke and Brooke, a law firm, can determine which facts from a file are most important.

  18. Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements

    PubMed Central

    O’Leary, Rebecca A.; Low-Choy, Samantha; Fisher, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    When limited or no observed data are available, it is often useful to obtain expert knowledge about parameters of interest, including point estimates and the uncertainty around these values. However, it is vital to elicit this information appropriately in order to obtain valid estimates. This is particularly important when the experts’ uncertainty about these estimates is strongly skewed, for instance when their best estimate is the same as the lowest value they consider possible. Also this is important when interest is in the aggregation of elicited values. In this paper, we compare alternative distributions for describing such estimates. The distributions considered include the lognormal, mirror lognormal, Normal and scaled Beta. The case study presented here involves estimation of the number of species in coral reefs, which requires eliciting counts within broader taxonomic groups, with highly skewed uncertainty estimates. This paper shows substantial gain in using the scaled Beta distribution, compared with Normal or lognormal distributions. We demonstrate that, for this case study on counting species, applying the novel encoding methodology developed in this paper can facilitate the acquisition of more rigorous estimates of (hierarchical) count data and credible bounds. The approach can also be applied to the more general case of enumerating a sampling frame via elicitation. PMID:26517835

  19. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  20. An Expert Assistant for Computer Aided Parallelization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jost, Gabriele; Chun, Robert; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit

    2004-01-01

    The prototype implementation of an expert system was developed to assist the user in the computer aided parallelization process. The system interfaces to tools for automatic parallelization and performance analysis. By fusing static program structure information and dynamic performance analysis data the expert system can help the user to filter, correlate, and interpret the data gathered by the existing tools. Sections of the code that show poor performance and require further attention are rapidly identified and suggestions for improvements are presented to the user. In this paper we describe the components of the expert system and discuss its interface to the existing tools. We present a case study to demonstrate the successful use in full scale scientific applications.

  1. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  2. The Content Validation and Resource Development For a Course in Materials and Processes of Industry Through the Use of NASA Experts at Norfolk State College. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobs, James A.

    In an effort to develop a course in materials and processes of industry at Norfolk State College using Barton Herrscher's model of systematic instruction, a group of 12 NASA-Langley Research Center's (NASA-LRC) research engineers and technicians were recruited. The group acted as consultants in validating the content of the course and aided in…

  3. The Content Validation and Resource Development For a Course in Materials and Processes of Industry Through the Use of NASA Experts at Norfolk State College. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobs, James A.

    In an effort to develop a course in materials and processes of industry at Norfolk State College using Barton Herrscher's model of systematic instruction, a group of 12 NASA-Langley Research Center's (NASA-LRC) research engineers and technicians were recruited. The group acted as consultants in validating the content of the course and aided in


  4. Deploying expert systems in Ada

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

    1989-01-01

    As the Department of Defense Ada mandate begins to be enforced actively, interest in deploying expert systems in Ada has increased. A prototype Ada based expert system tool is introduced called ART/Ada. This prototype was built to support research into the language and operational issues of expert systems in Ada. ART/Ada allows applications of a conventional expert system tool called ART-IM (Automated Reasoning Tool for Information Management) to be deployed in various Ada environments with efficient use of time and space. ART-IM, a C-based expert system tool, is used to generate Ada source code which is compiled and linked with an Ada base inference engine to produce an Ada executable image. ART/Ada will be used to implement several prototype expert systems for the Space Station Freedom Program testbeds.

  5. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koons, H. C.; Gorney, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    A microcomputer-based expert system is being developed at the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory to assist in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to address anomalies caused by surface charging, bulk charging, single event effects and total radiation dose. These effects depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local environment (which is highly variable), the satellite exposure time and the hardness of the circuits and components of the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instruments Personal Consultant Plus expert system shell. The completed expert system knowledge base will include 150 to 200 rules, as well as a spacecraft attributes database, an historical spacecraft anomalies database, and a space environment database which is updated in near real-time. Currently, the expert system is undergoing development and testing within the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory.

  6. Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

    1991-01-01

    Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

  7. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Reece, Wendy Jane

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling.

  8. Expert system to aid learning of new products for inspection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, John P.; Batchelor, Bruce G.; Broderick, S. R.; Lambert, Robin A.; Weeks, A. W.

    1992-03-01

    An expert system has been written in the Prolog language which enables a non-expert user to specify the method of manufacture and visual appearance of small decorated cakes. The expert system has been designed to be ergonomically acceptable to non-expert users. It formulates the inspection procedures necessary by relating the method of manufacture to the appearance of a product, and from this the image processing operations are generated in the form of a Prolog+ program. Such a method enables the system to inspect new and varied products without sacrificing the complexity and robustness of inspection.

  9. The First Expert CAI System

    PubMed Central

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    1984-01-01

    The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

  10. Building expert systems: Cognitive emulation

    SciTech Connect

    Slatter, P.E.

    1987-01-01

    This work explores the questions and issues surrounding the capacity of expert systems to emulate human thinking and problem-solving abilities, the extent to which this is possible, and the desirability and limitations involved in applying this new technology. Maintaining a balance between theoretical and practical issues, it reviews psychological research into human expert cognition and discusses the formal arguments for and against cognitive emulation in expert system design. Also analyzes in detail the factors likely to promote or constrain this strategy. Includes a critical survey of expert systems research which outlines the implications of the emulation approach to knowledge acquisition and representation.

  11. Chain Graph Models to Elicit the Structure of a Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Stefanini, Federico M.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are possibly the most successful graphical models to build decision support systems. Building the structure of large networks is still a challenging task, but Bayesian methods are particularly suited to exploit experts' degree of belief in a quantitative way while learning the network structure from data. In this paper details are provided about how to build a prior distribution on the space of network structures by eliciting a chain graph model on structural reference features. Several structural features expected to be often useful during the elicitation are described. The statistical background needed to effectively use this approach is summarized, and some potential pitfalls are illustrated. Finally, a few seminal contributions from the literature are reformulated in terms of structural features. PMID:24688427

  12. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  13. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be


  14. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The... later than 1 day after the close of fact discovery, meaning the close of discovery except...

  15. [Expert evaluation--measures to objectivize subjective opinion].

    PubMed

    Gorbunov, V V

    2009-01-01

    Reliability of expert evaluation remains a topical problem for occupational medicine, industrial ecology, ergonomics, psychology, sport refereeing and special examinations without instrumental assessment of work state, conditions, their jeopardy, etc. In this connection, the algorithm of mathematic and statistic processing of subjective opinions increases objectivity of expert evaluation of such parameters. PMID:19382651

  16. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

  17. The Expert Mathematician. Revised. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    What Works Clearinghouse, 2006

    2006-01-01

    "The Expert Mathematician" is designed to help middle school students develop the thinking processes for mathematical applications and communication. A three-year program of instruction, "The Expert Mathematician" uses a software and consumable print materials package with 196 lessons that teach the "Logo" programming language. Each lesson ranges…

  18. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub-task commands. This mechanism gives the operator the ability to build a task-hierarchy tree of increasingly powerful commands. ESG also provides automatic regeneration of scripts based on system knowledge of telerobotic environment updates. The commands generated by ESG may be displayed at the terminal screen and/or stored. ESG is implemented as a rule-based expert system written in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System). The system consists of a knowledge-base of task heuristics, a static (unchanged during execution) database which describes the physical features of objects, and a dynamic (may change as a result of task achievement) database which maintains changes in the environment. Capabilites are provided for adding new environmental objects and for modifying existing objects and configuration data. Options are available for interactively viewing both the static and dynamic attribute values of database items. Execution of the ESG may be suspended to allow access to system-level functions. ESG was implemented on a VAX 11/780 with the VMS 4.7 operating system using a VT100 compatible terminal. Its source code is 47% CLIPS and 53% C-language, with a memory requirement of approximately 205 KB. The program was developed in 1988.

  19. Eyeglasses elicit effects similar to face-like perceptual expertise: evidence from the N170 response.

    PubMed

    Cao, Xiaohua; Yang, Qi; Hu, Fengpei

    2016-03-01

    Studies of event-related potentials show that the specific N170 response has become a stable electrophysiological hallmark of objects related to expertise in early perceptual processing. In the present study, we investigated whether eyeglasses can elicit N170 effects similar to those elicited by objects of expertise. Our results showed that the N170 response elicited by eyeglasses was larger than the response elicited by objects that do not generate perceptual expertise (e.g., houses). Importantly, we found that eyeglasses could produce a within-category N170 adaptation effect, similar to that produced in response to objects of expertise (e.g., faces). Our results have revealed for the first time that with a large amount of experience, eyeglasses could evoke the face-like N170 response, which suggested that eyeglasses may become an object of perceptual expertise to some human observers. PMID:26670904

  20. Auditory Evoked Fields Elicited by Spectral, Temporal, and Spectral–Temporal Changes in Human Cerebral Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Teismann, Henning; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Pantev, Christo

    2012-01-01

    Natural sounds contain complex spectral components, which are temporally modulated as time-varying signals. Recent studies have suggested that the auditory system encodes spectral and temporal sound information differently. However, it remains unresolved how the human brain processes sounds containing both spectral and temporal changes. In the present study, we investigated human auditory evoked responses elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral–temporal sound changes by means of magnetoencephalography. The auditory evoked responses elicited by the spectral–temporal change were very similar to those elicited by the spectral change, but those elicited by the temporal change were delayed by 30–50?ms and differed from the others in morphology. The results suggest that human brain responses corresponding to spectral sound changes precede those corresponding to temporal sound changes, even when the spectral and temporal changes occur simultaneously. PMID:22593751

  1. Auditory evoked fields elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral-temporal changes in human cerebral cortex.

    PubMed

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Teismann, Henning; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Pantev, Christo

    2012-01-01

    Natural sounds contain complex spectral components, which are temporally modulated as time-varying signals. Recent studies have suggested that the auditory system encodes spectral and temporal sound information differently. However, it remains unresolved how the human brain processes sounds containing both spectral and temporal changes. In the present study, we investigated human auditory evoked responses elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral-temporal sound changes by means of magnetoencephalography. The auditory evoked responses elicited by the spectral-temporal change were very similar to those elicited by the spectral change, but those elicited by the temporal change were delayed by 30-50?ms and differed from the others in morphology. The results suggest that human brain responses corresponding to spectral sound changes precede those corresponding to temporal sound changes, even when the spectral and temporal changes occur simultaneously. PMID:22593751

  2. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-KĂŒster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process

    PubMed Central

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  3. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process.

    PubMed

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  4. Kinesiological motion expert system.

    PubMed

    Sands, W A

    1994-12-01

    Kinesiology builds on anatomical information by establishing which muscles contribute to human motion and to what extent. This 'body as machine' approach seeks to identify particular muscles as contractile 'engines'. The learning of muscular contributions to human motions based on long tables of origins, insertions, innervations, and actions is tedious and often incomplete based on author judgments of which muscles and motions to include. The kinesiological motion expert system (KMES) was developed so that students could easily select joints, actions, and tension types and receive computerized output listing the muscles that could contribute to the motion requested. In addition, a student can select a particular muscle and tension type and the program will return all of the motions that the selected muscle might contribute. The KMES was written in PDC Prolog and has a knowledge base of 1583 movements. Implementation of the KMES in kinesiology classes resulted in an increase in average student final scores of approximately 15% (F(3,190) = 12.11, P < 0.0001). PMID:7736728

  5. An Expert Map of Gambling Risk Perception.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns. PMID:25060132

  6. Communicator Credibility: Trustworthiness Defeats Expertness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lui, Louisa; Standing, Lionel

    1989-01-01

    Compared credibility of highly trustworthy communicator with that of an expert by using nuns (N=36) who listened to the same persuasive message about Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome presented as either a trustworthy source (priest), an expert (doctor), or a neutral source. Found trustworthy communicator was regarded as significantly more…

  7. Expertise in Teaching: Expert Pedagogues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavely, Carolyn; And Others

    "The purpose of this article is to report a review of the developing empirical literature to explain "expert" teacher behavior, by analogy, from the cognitive psychology expertise literature. Emphasized is a review of the expert-novice cognitive psychology literature, encompassing the research on: chess, and other games; physics, medicine, and…

  8. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  9. Expert Systems and Medical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Educational Researcher, 1988

    1988-01-01

    Expert systems are computerized databases that can diagnose and recommend treatment for persons who are ill. The database contains information on more than 7,600 diseases generated from exhaustive questioning of experts. These systems supplement human expertise but do not replace the good teaching of physicians. (VM)

  10. Expert Systems and Document Handling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edmonds, Ernest

    1987-01-01

    Describes significant attributes of expert systems, contrasts them to conventional computer systems, and provides an overview of the R1 expert system used by Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) to put together operational systems that meet customers' requirements. Document handling, particularly pictures and images in documents, is also briefly…

  11. Encoding prior experts judgments to improve risk analysis of extreme hydrological events via POT modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parent, Eric; Bernier, Jacques

    2003-12-01

    One of the main decisions to be made in operational hydrology is to estimate design floods for safety purposes. These floods are generally much rare events that have already been systematically recorded and consequently the results of any estimation process are subject to high levels of uncertainty. When adopting the frequentist framework of probability, the so called 'respect of scientific objectivity' shall forbid the hydrologists to introduce prior knowledge such as quantified hydrological expertise into the analysis. However, such an expertise can significantly improve the capability of a probabilistic model to extrapolate extreme value events. The Bayesian paradigm offers coherent tools to quantify the prior knowledge of experts. This paper develops an inference procedure for the peak over threshold (POT) model, using semi-conjugate informative priors. Such prior structures are convenient to encode a wide variety of prior expertise. They avoid recourse to Monte Carlo Markov Chain techniques which are presently the standard for Bayesian analyses, but such algorithms may be uneasy to implement. We show that prior expertise can significantly reduce uncertainty on design values. Using the Garonne case study with a sample of systematic data spanning over the period 1913-1977, we point out that: (1) the elicitation approach for subjective prior information can be based on quantities with a definite practical hydrological meaning for the expert; (2) with respect to the usual Poisson-Generalized Pareto model, a semi-conjugate prior offers a flexible structure to assess expert knowledge about extreme behavior of the river flows. In addition, it leads to quasi-analytical formulations; (3) tractable algorithms can be implemented to approximate the prior uncertainty about POT parameters into these semi conjugate distribution forms via simple Monte Carlo simulations and normal approximations; (4) the design value and its credible interval are notably changed when incorporating prior knowledge into the risk analysis.

  12. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  13. Engineering monitoring expert system's developer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1991-01-01

    This research project is designed to apply artificial intelligence technology including expert systems, dynamic interface of neural networks, and hypertext to construct an expert system developer. The developer environment is specifically suited to building expert systems which monitor the performance of ground support equipment for propulsion systems and testing facilities. The expert system developer, through the use of a graphics interface and a rule network, will be transparent to the user during rule constructing and data scanning of the knowledge base. The project will result in a software system that allows its user to build specific monitoring type expert systems which monitor various equipments used for propulsion systems or ground testing facilities and accrues system performance information in a dynamic knowledge base.

  14. Cognitive resources of physics experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Darrick C.

    One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.

  15. Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

    1988-01-01

    Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

  16. Being an expert witness in geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Edward A.

    2015-02-01

    Gathering your own data and coming to your own conclusion through scientific research and discovery is the most important principle to remember when being an expert witness in geomorphology. You can only be questioned in deposition and trial in your area of expertise. You are qualified as an expert by education, knowledge, and experience. You will have absolutely nothing to fear from cross-examination if you are prepared and confident about your work. Being an expert witness requires good communication skills. When you make a presentation, speak clearly and avoid jargon, especially when addressing a jury. Keep in mind that when you take on a case that may eventually go to court as a lawsuit, the entire process, with appeals and so forth, can take several years. Therefore, being an expert may become a long-term commitment of your time and energy. You may be hired by either side in a dispute, but your job is the same - determine the scientific basis of the case and explain your scientific reasoning to the lawyers, the judge, and the jury. Your work, including pre-trial investigations, often determines what the case will be based on. The use of science in the discovery part of an investigation is demonstrated from a California case involving the Ventura River, where building of a flood control levee restricted flow to a narrower channel, increasing unit stream power as well as potential for bank erosion and landsliding.

  17. Segmenting Echocardiographic Image Sequences Using Expert Labeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dreyer, Keith J.; Sethi, Ishwar K.; Held, A. C.; Simko, Joseph

    1990-03-01

    Echocardiographic images are generally of poor quality. From a strict gray scale perspective, there are few edges which correspond to the underlying anatomy. Trained ultrasonographers must use considerable a priori information regarding normal human anatomy and use this information extensively to 'fill in' the missing and scanty details of a typical echocardiogram. Due to these constraints, the conventional image processing approaches often fail miserably for echocardiographic images. Knowledge-based approaches for segmenting echo images have been proposed in the recent past; these appear to be much more successful. One of the limitations of knowledge-based approaches is that the acquisition of knowledge and the formation of rules is a relatively difficult task. Moreover, there are instances where experts may have different opinions; this is specially true in the context of echocardiographic images. Additionally, it is much more difficult to codify the expert's knowledge at the image level. Considering these factors plus the typical medical research scenario, where a series of images are acquired at one sitting for a patient, we present in this paper an approach for segmenting echocardiographic image sequences by directly acquiring the expert's knowledge at the image level. The present implementation yields a look up table capturing the expert's knowledge leading to near real time segmentation of echocardiographic images. The results obtained are quite in agreement with the segmentations obtained through trained ultrasonographers.

  18. An expert system for determining Medicaid eligibility.

    PubMed

    Sear, A M

    1988-10-01

    The eligibility requirements for AFDC Medicaid are so extensive and complicated that most health care providers do not attempt to ascertain whether or not a particular patient is eligible for the program, even when no other source of payment is available. This results in lost revenue for health service providers nationwide amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Computer technology, in the form of expert systems, offers an opportunity to rationalize the Medicaid eligibility determination process and to do real-time assessments of patient eligibility. This article presents an expert system called MEDELEX (MEdicaid ELigibility EXpert) for determining Medicaid eligibility. The program (when run on an 8 MHz MS-DOS microcomputer with at least 640 KB of RAM) requires about 20 min for data entry and 5 sec for the actual eligibility determination. The expert system was written in Prolog and has been designed in such a way that it can be readily modified to take into account the state-to-state variability in eligibility requirements for AFDC Medicaid. PMID:3068326

  19. Antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal in humans.

    PubMed

    Gorelick, David A; Goodwin, Robert S; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M; Darwin, William D; Kelly, Deanna L; McMahon, Robert P; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2011-10-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral ??-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40-120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0-8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses. PMID:21869692

  20. Eliciting promises from children reduces cheating.

    PubMed

    Heyman, Gail D; Fu, Genyue; Lin, Jianyan; Qian, Miao K; Lee, Kang

    2015-11-01

    Widespread cheating can undermine rules that are necessary for maintaining social order. Preventing cheating can be a challenge, especially with regard to children, who as a result of their limited executive function skills may have particular difficulty with resisting temptation to cheat. We examined one approach designed to help children resist this temptation: eliciting a verbal commitment to not cheat. We tested 4- to 7-year-olds (total N = 330) and found that starting at 5 years of age, a verbal commitment to not cheat led to a substantial reduction in cheating. The results suggest that verbal commitments can be used to help children overcome temptations and comply with rules. PMID:26074407

  1. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the right way. All citizens of the EU may benefit using the best practice. PMID:24834138

  2. Using Expert System Job Aids: A Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carr, Clay

    1989-01-01

    Explains how current commercial expert system technology can be used to create useful job aids. Expert systems are defined, situations in which an expert system job aid will be most effective are described, expert system shells are discussed, and three commercial expert system products are described. (LRW)

  3. Filtering information from human experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendel, Max B.; Sheridan, Thomas B.

    1989-01-01

    The authors propose a model, or filter, for debiasing opinions from multiple experts and combining them into a single consistent estimate of some variable of interest. A distinguishing feature of the approach consists of making the calibration of experts an integral part of filtering. This enables the filter to learn from previous experience with the experts. The theoretical development takes a Bayesian perspective, using de Finetti's (1964) notion of exchangeability. Experimental results with a preliminary computer implementation of the filter show that its estimates are better than those from comparable filters that do not involve calibration.

  4. An expert system for shuttle and satellite radar tracker scheduling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Paul

    1988-01-01

    This expert system automates and optimizes radar tracker selection for shuttle missions. The expert system is written in the FORTRAN and C languages on an HP9000. It is portable to any UNIX machine having both ANSI-77 FORTRAN and C language compilers. It is a rule based expert system that selects tracking stations from the S-band and C-band radar stations and the TDRSS east and TDRSS west satellites under a variety of conditions. The expert system was prototyped on the Symbolics in the Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) and ZetaLisp. After the prototype demonstrated an acceptable automation of the process of selecting tracking stations to support the orbit determination requirements of Shuttle missions, the basic ART rules of the prototype were ported to the HP9000 computer using the CLIPS language. CLIPS is a forward-chaining rule-based expert system language written in C. Prior to the development of this expert system the selection process was a tedious manual process and expensive in terms of human resources. Manual tracking station selection required from 1 to 2 man weeks per mission; whereas the expert system can complete the selection process in about 2 hours.

  5. An Expert Fault Diagnosis System for Vehicle Air Conditioning Product Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, C. F.; Tee, B. T.; Khalil, S. N.; Chen, W.; Rauterberg, G. W. M.

    2015-09-01

    The paper describes the development of the vehicle air-conditioning fault diagnosis system in automotive industries with expert system shell. The main aim of the research is to diagnose the problem of new vehicle air-conditioning system development process and select the most suitable solution to the problems. In the vehicle air-conditioning manufacturing industry, process can be very costly where an expert and experience personnel needed in certain circumstances. The expert of in the industry will retire or resign from time to time. When the expert is absent, their experience and knowledge is difficult to retrieve or lost forever. Expert system is a convenient method to replace expert. By replacing the expert with expert system, the accuracy of the processes will be increased compared to the conventional way. Therefore, the quality of product services that are produced will be finer and better. The inputs for the fault diagnosis are based on design data and experience of the engineer.

  6. Spacecraft command and control using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norcross, Scott; Grieser, William H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a product called the Intelligent Mission Toolkit (IMT), which was created to meet the changing demands of the spacecraft command and control market. IMT is a command and control system built upon an expert system. Its primary functions are to send commands to the spacecraft and process telemetry data received from the spacecraft. It also controls the ground equipment used to support the system, such as encryption gear, and telemetry front-end equipment. Add-on modules allow IMT to control antennas and antenna interface equipment. The design philosophy for IMT is to utilize available commercial products wherever possible. IMT utilizes Gensym's G2 Real-time Expert System as the core of the system. G2 is responsible for overall system control, spacecraft commanding control, and spacecraft telemetry analysis and display. Other commercial products incorporated into IMT include the SYBASE relational database management system and Loral Test and Integration Systems' System 500 for telemetry front-end processing.

  7. Expert system development for probabilistic load simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, H.; Newell, J. F.

    1991-05-01

    A knowledge based system LDEXPT using the intelligent data base paradigm was developed for the Composite Load Spectra (CLS) project to simulate the probabilistic loads of a space propulsion system. The knowledge base approach provides a systematic framework of organizing the load information and facilitates the coupling of the numerical processing and symbolic (information) processing. It provides an incremental development environment for building generic probabilistic load models and book keeping the associated load information. A large volume of load data is stored in the data base and can be retrieved and updated by a built-in data base management system. The data base system standardizes the data storage and retrieval procedures. It helps maintain data integrity and avoid data redundancy. The intelligent data base paradigm provides ways to build expert system rules for shallow and deep reasoning and thus provides expert knowledge to help users to obtain the required probabilistic load spectra.

  8. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  9. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  10. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  11. The making of expert clinicians: reflective practice.

    PubMed

    Maestre, J M; Szyld, D; Del Moral, I; Ortiz, G; Rudolph, J W

    2014-05-01

    Debriefing is a rigorous reflection process which helps trainees recognize and resolve clinical and behavioral dilemmas raised by a clinical case. This approach emphasizes eliciting trainees'assumptions about the situation and their reasons for performing as they did (mental models). It analyses their impact on actions, to understand if it is necessary to maintain them or construct new ones that may lead to better performance in the future. It blends evidence and theory from education research, the social and cognitive sciences, and experience drawn from conducting and teaching debriefing to clinicians worldwide, on how to improve professional effectiveness through "reflective practice". PMID:24439667

  12. Tumor-Elicited Inflammation and Colorectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Kepeng; Karin, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The link between chronic inflammation and cancer has long been suspected, due to the pioneering work of Rudolf Virchow over 150 years ago. Yet the causal relationship between inflammation and cancer was only deciphered in the past decade or so, using animal models of various cancers. Up to 20% of all human cancers result from chronic inflammation and persistent infections. Proinflammatory cytokines and tumor-infiltrating myeloid and immune cells play critical roles in almost every developmental stages of inflammation-induced cancers, from initiation, promotion, and progression to malignant metastasis. However, even in cancers with no preceding inflammation, inflammatory cells infiltrate tumor stroma and contribute to cancer development. Such "tumor-elicited inflammation" further emphasizes the importance of inflammation in different types of cancers, including that of the colon. In this review, we summarize our current knowledge of the function and induction mechanisms of inflammatory cytokines during colorectal cancer development, and hope to provide insight into the development of novel anticancer therapies by modulating tumor-elicited inflammation. PMID:26216633

  13. Minimum eliciting patch test concentration of thimerosal.

    PubMed

    Lisi, P; Perno, P; Ottaviani, M; Morelli, P

    1991-01-01

    Positive patch test reactions to thimerosal 0.1% pet. (40/690 subjects: 5.8%) were more common in younger age groups, in the allergic contact dermatitis group and in subjects who had used contact lens solutions. In the 40 thimerosal-positive patients, the minimum eliciting quantity of preservative was evaluated using different test concentrations: 0.05% and 0.01% pet. (patch testing) and 1:10,000 in saline (intradermal testing). Cross-reactions between thimerosal and other mercury compounds and sensitivity to thiosalicylic acid were also examined. The results of the investigation demonstrate that many of the reactions to 0.1% thimerosal are probably irritant, because only half the subjects studied had positive patch tests when allergen concentrations 5 to 10x lower than that conventionally used for patch testing, were utilized. In these subjects, the average strength of patch test reactions was higher, intradermal testing was more often positive and cross-reactions between mercurials more frequent. These data indicate that the optimal eliciting patch test concentration for studying thimerosal sensitivity is 0.05% pet. PMID:2044366

  14. Isolated sleep paralysis elicited by sleep interruption.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, T; Miyasita, A; Sasaki, Y; Inugami, M; Fukuda, K

    1992-06-01

    We elicited isolated sleep paralysis (ISP) from normal subjects by a nocturnal sleep interruption schedule. On four experimental nights, 16 subjects had their sleep interrupted for 60 minutes by forced awakening at the time when 40 minutes of nonrapid eye movement (NREM) sleep had elapsed from the termination of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep in the first or third sleep cycle. This schedule produced a sleep onset REM period (SOREMP) after the interruption at a high rate of 71.9%. We succeeded in eliciting six episodes of ISP in the sleep interruptions performed (9.4%). All episodes of ISP except one occurred from SOREMP, indicating a close correlation between ISP and SOREMP. We recorded verbal reports about ISP experiences and recorded the polysomnogram (PSG) during ISP. All of the subjects with ISP experienced inability to move and were simultaneously aware of lying in the laboratory. All but one reported auditory/visual hallucinations and unpleasant emotions. PSG recordings during ISP were characterized by a REM/W stage dissociated state, i.e. abundant alpha electroencephalographs and persistence of muscle atonia shown by the tonic electromyogram. Judging from the PSG recordings, ISP differs from other dissociated states such as lucid dreaming, nocturnal panic attacks and REM sleep behavior disorders. We compare some of the sleep variables between ISP and non-ISP nights. We also discuss the similarities and differences between ISP and sleep paralysis in narcolepsy. PMID:1621022

  15. A software engineering approach to expert system design and verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bochsler, Daniel C.; Goodwin, Mary Ann

    1988-01-01

    Software engineering design and verification methods for developing expert systems are not yet well defined. Integration of expert system technology into software production environments will require effective software engineering methodologies to support the entire life cycle of expert systems. The software engineering methods used to design and verify an expert system, RENEX, is discussed. RENEX demonstrates autonomous rendezvous and proximity operations, including replanning trajectory events and subsystem fault detection, onboard a space vehicle during flight. The RENEX designers utilized a number of software engineering methodologies to deal with the complex problems inherent in this system. An overview is presented of the methods utilized. Details of the verification process receive special emphasis. The benefits and weaknesses of the methods for supporting the development life cycle of expert systems are evaluated, and recommendations are made based on the overall experiences with the methods.

  16. Professionalism in court: The neurologist as expert witness.

    PubMed

    Cheshire, William P; Hutchins, John C

    2014-08-01

    Serving as an expert witness can be a rewarding experience. It affords the neurologist the opportunity to contribute expertise to the legal system's pursuit of justice and benefits the public interest. However, serving as an expert witness without understanding and incorporating relevant professional and specialty guidelines concerning expert witness testimony can place the neurologist at risk. The American Academy of Neurology has established standards governing expert witness testimony and a disciplinary process to respond to complaints of violation of its standards. Increased understanding of and adherence to these qualifications and guidelines, coupled with an awareness of how the legal system differs from clinical practice, will better equip neurologists serving as expert witnesses and minimize their professional risk when doing so. PMID:25279255

  17. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  18. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  19. Rule groupings in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehrotra, Mala; Johnson, Sally C.

    1990-01-01

    Currently, expert system shells do not address software engineering issues for developing or maintaining expert systems. As a result, large expert systems tend to be incomprehensible, difficult to debug or modify, and almost impossible to verify or validate Partitioning rule-based systems into rule groups which reflect the underlying subdomains of the problem should enhance the comprehensibility, maintainability, and reliability of expert-system software. In this paper, we investigate methods to semi-automatically structure a CLIPS rule base e into groups of rules that carry related information. We discuss three different distance metrics for measuring the relatedness of rules and describe two clustering algorithms based on these distance metrics. The results of our experiment with three sample rule bases are also presented.

  20. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--stand for evaluating medical expert assessment].

    PubMed

    Kienzle, H F

    1996-11-01

    The standard for the assessment of the medical expert opinion is defined by the high demands expected from the judgement of a high court: Objectiveness, solid knowledge, self-criticism, in contestability in diction and firmness in the argumentation. From the legal point of view, the knowledge of the medical expert witness has to clearly go beyond the knowledge of his profession. The obligation for objectiveness is the basis of expert witness' activity. From the medical point of view, the physician has to take into account during the preparation of his expert assessment that structural deficiency of the personnel and surgical equipment of a department for surgery frequently plays a role due to the development of surgery to high tech medicine and the hospital physician cannot affect this. It is necessary for a physician as an expert witness to have basic knowledge about the evidence law and the medical liability process. On the other hand, judges and lawyers should basically know the medical way of thinking. PMID:9064929

  1. Artificial intelligence and the law: will expert systems replace expert lawyers

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, G.S.

    1983-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The commercial availability of expert systems utilizing specially developed knowledge bases raises significant questions about their potential utility in the practice of law. These systems, built with the aid of recent developments in artificial intelligence research, may only prove useful in certain areas of legal practice. Counselling and interviewing are areas where expert systems are likely to effect marked changes in the practice of law. In contract, computerized legal research using a knowledge-based system is more difficult to envision. This is due to complexities presented by the multiplicity of sources of the law, and by conflicting opinions and interpretations in the common law. In the coming decade, use of expert systems in science and medicine will grow rapidly, and attempts will continue to be made to automate the legal reasoning process. As past research efforts have demonstrated, this will not be an easy task.

  2. Standards for evaluating expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beach, Sharon S.; Gevarter, William

    1991-01-01

    A brief survey of the literature and proposal for a standard methodology for evaluating expert system building tools are discribed. Criteria for expert systems environmental factors and expert systems tool features are also discussed.

  3. Epigenetic mechanisms elicited by nutrition in early life.

    PubMed

    Canani, Roberto Berni; Costanzo, Margherita Di; Leone, Ludovica; Bedogni, Giorgio; Brambilla, Paolo; Cianfarani, Stefano; Nobili, Valerio; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Agostoni, Carlo

    2011-12-01

    A growing number of studies focusing on the developmental origin of health and disease hypothesis have identified links among early nutrition, epigenetic processes and diseases also in later life. Different epigenetic mechanisms are elicited by dietary factors in early critical developmental ages that are able to affect the susceptibility to several diseases in adulthood. The studies here reviewed suggest that maternal and neonatal diet may have long-lasting effects in the development of non-communicable chronic adulthood diseases, in particular the components of the so-called metabolic syndrome, such as insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, obesity, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and CVD. Both maternal under- and over-nutrition may regulate the expression of genes involved in lipid and carbohydrate metabolism. Early postnatal nutrition may also represent a vital determinant of adult health by making an impact on the development and function of gut microbiota. An inadequate gut microbiota composition and function in early life seems to account for the deviant programming of later immunity and overall health status. In this regard probiotics, which have the potential to restore the intestinal microbiota balance, may be effective in preventing the development of chronic immune-mediated diseases. More recently, the epigenetic mechanisms elicited by probiotics through the production of SCFA are hypothesised to be the key to understand how they mediate their numerous health-promoting effects from the gut to the peripheral tissues. PMID:22008232

  4. Concert hall acoustics assessment with individually elicited attributes.

    PubMed

    Lokki, Tapio; Patynen, Jukka; Kuusinen, Antti; Vertanen, Heikki; Tervo, Sakari

    2011-08-01

    Concert hall acoustics was evaluated with a descriptive sensory analysis method by employing an individual vocabulary development technique. The goal was to obtain sensory profiles of three concert halls by eliciting perceptual attributes for evaluation and comparison of the halls. The stimuli were gathered by playing back anechoic symphony music from 34 loudspeakers on stage in each concert hall and recording the sound field with a microphone array. Four musical programs were processed for multichannel 3D sound reproduction in the actual listening test. Twenty screened assessors developed their individual set of attributes and performed a comparative evaluation of nine seats, three in each hall. The results contain the distinctive groups of elicited attributes and show good agreement within assessors, even though they applied individual attributes when rating the samples. It was also found that loudness and distance gave the strongest perceptual direction to the principal component basis. In addition, the study revealed that the perception of reverberance is related to the size of the space or to the enveloping reverberance, depending on the assessor. PMID:21877799

  5. Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

    2014-10-01

    Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

  6. The aggregation of expert judgment: do good things come to those who weight?

    PubMed

    Bolger, Fergus; Rowe, Gene

    2015-01-01

    Good policy making should be based on available scientific knowledge. Sometimes this knowledge is well established through research, but often scientists must simply express their judgment, and this is particularly so in risk scenarios that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Usually in such cases, the opinions of several experts will be sought in order to pool knowledge and reduce error, raising the question of whether individual expert judgments should be given different weights. We argue--against the commonly advocated "classical method"--that no significant benefits are likely to accrue from unequal weighting in mathematical aggregation. Our argument hinges on the difficulty of constructing reliable and valid measures of substantive expertise upon which to base weights. Practical problems associated with attempts to evaluate experts are also addressed. While our discussion focuses on one specific weighting scheme that is currently gaining in popularity for expert knowledge elicitation, our general thesis applies to externally imposed unequal weighting schemes more generally. PMID:25156754

  7. ELICIT: An alternative imprecise weight elicitation technique for use in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare

    PubMed Central

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Sanogo, Vassiki; Moussa, Kouame Richard

    2015-01-01

    Objective In this paper, the readers are introduced to ELICIT, an imprecise weight elicitation technique for multicriteria decision analysis for healthcare. Methods The application of ELICIT consists of two steps: the rank ordering of evaluation criteria based on decision-makers’ (DMs) preferences using the principal component analysis; and the estimation of criteria weights and their descriptive statistics using the variable interdependent analysis and the Monte Carlo method. The application of ELICIT is illustrated with a hypothetical case study involving the elicitation of weights for five criteria used to select the best device for eye surgery. Results The criteria were ranked from 1–5, based on a strict preference relationship established by the DMs. For each criterion, the deterministic weight was estimated as well as the standard deviation and 95% credibility interval. Conclusions ELICIT is appropriate in situations where only ordinal DMs’ preferences are available to elicit decision criteria weights. PMID:26361235

  8. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules indecision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  9. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules in decision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  10. Rhetorical Consequences of the Computer Society: Expert Systems and Human Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skopec, Eric Wm.

    Expert systems are computer programs that solve selected problems by modelling domain-specific behaviors of human experts. These computer programs typically consist of an input/output system that feeds data into the computer and retrieves advice, an inference system using the reasoning and heuristic processes of human experts, and a knowledge


  11. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Rutherford, Edward S; Zhang, Hongyan; Mason, Doran M; Lodge, David M

    2015-02-01

    Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance-based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision-support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available. PMID:25132396

  12. The Expert Project Management System (EPMS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty

    1986-01-01

    Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.

  13. Expert operator's associate: An expert system for spacecraft control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, Mogens; Grue, Klaus; Olalainty, Bernard; Lecouat, Francois; Wheadon, Joe

    1990-10-01

    The Expert Operator's Associate (EOA) project which studies the applicability of expert systems for day to day space operations is described. A prototype expert system is developed, which operates together with an existing spacecraft control system at the European Space Operations Center and functions as an operator's assistant in controlling satellites. The prototype is demonstrated using an existing real-time simulation model of the MARECS-B2 spacecraft. By developing a prototype system the reliability and effectiveness of operations that can be enhanced by such means are investigated. Questions of acquisition and representation of knowledge for such systems, and the feasibility of migration of some (currently) groundbased functions into future spaceborne autonomous systems are discussed.

  14. Multiple neural network approaches to clinical expert systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stubbs, Derek F.

    1990-08-01

    We briefly review the concept of computer aided medical diagnosis and more extensively review the the existing literature on neural network applications in the field. Neural networks can function as simple expert systems for diagnosis or prognosis. Using a public database we develop a neural network for the diagnosis of a major presenting symptom while discussing the development process and possible approaches. MEDICAL EXPERTS SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DIAGNOSIS Biomedicine is an incredibly diverse and multidisciplinary field and it is not surprising that neural networks with their many applications are finding more and more applications in the highly non-linear field of biomedicine. I want to concentrate on neural networks as medical expert systems for clinical diagnosis or prognosis. Expert Systems started out as a set of computerized " ifthen" rules. Everything was reduced to boolean logic and the promised land of computer experts was said to be in sight. It never came. Why? First the computer code explodes as the number of " ifs" increases. All the " ifs" have to interact. Second experts are not very good at reducing expertise to language. It turns out that experts recognize patterns and have non-verbal left-brain intuition decision processes. Third learning by example rather than learning by rule is the way natural brains works and making computers work by rule-learning is hideously labor intensive. Neural networks can learn from example. They learn the results

  15. Expert evidence, the adversary system, and the jury.

    PubMed

    Vidmar, Neil

    2005-01-01

    Many assertions have been made about the competence of juries in dealing with expert evidence. I review the types of expert evidence that jurors hear and the impact of adversary legal procedure on the form and manner in which evidence is presented. Empirical research indicates that jurors understand the adversary process, that they do not automatically defer to the opinions of experts, and that their verdicts appear to be generally consistent with external criteria of performance. Conflicts between the American adversary system and changes in trial procedures that might assist the jury in its task are also considered here. PMID:16030330

  16. A gene mapping expert system.

    PubMed

    Galland, J; Skolnick, M H

    1990-08-01

    Expert systems are now commonly developed to solve practical problems. Nevertheless, genetics has just begun to benefit from this new technology, since genetic expert systems are extremely rare and often purely experimental. A prototype for risk calculation in pedigrees was developed at the University of Utah, using a commercial frames/rules developmental shell (Intelligence Compiler), which runs on an IBM PC. When small data sets were used, the implementation functioned well, but it could not handle larger data sets. Performance became a major issue, with two possible solutions. The first possibility would have been to port the system to a more powerful machine, and the second would have been to use several different shells or languages, each efficiently representing a specific type of knowledge. Neither of these solutions was applicable in this case. From this experience, we learned that performance, portability, and modifiability were three major requirements for genetic expert systems. To achieve these goals, we implemented the gene mapping expert system GMES: (GMES is unrelated to the gene mapping system, GMS in Lisp combined with a frame/object shell (FROBS). We were able to efficiently represent, control, and optimize a gene mapping experiment, achieving portability by building GMES on top of a C-based version of Common Lisp. Lisp combined with the FROBS expert system shell permitted a declarative representation of each of the components of the experiment, resulting in a transplant specification of the problem within a maintainable system. PMID:2394090

  17. Parallelism in backward-chained expert systems - Experimental results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Lawrence O.

    1990-01-01

    There are many applications which may be done by an expert system in real time, if the system is capable of real-time response. The LISP and PROLOG-based expert systems have typically been too slow for real-time response. This has led to an effort to use other languages, the development of fast pattern matching techniques and other methods of improving the speed of expert systems. Another approach to developing faster expert systems is to make use of the emerging parallel processing computer technology. A further use for parallelism is to allow reasonable response time for large knowledge bases. The size of knowledge bases may become as large as 20,000 chunks of knowledge (and more) in the near future in medical and space applications. This paper describes the use of parallel processing in the EMYCIN backward chained rule-based model.

  18. Ontological leveling and elicitation for complex industrial transactions

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, L.R.; Goldsmith, S.Y.; Spires, S.V.

    1998-11-01

    The authors present an agent-oriented mechanism that uses a central ontology as a means to conduct complex distributed transactions. This is done by instantiating a template object motivated solely by the ontology, then automatically and explicitly linking each temple element to an independently constructed interface component. Validation information is attached directly to the links so that the agent need not know a priori the semantics of data validity, merely how to execute a general validation process to satisfy the conditions given in the link. Ontological leveling is critical: all terms presented to informants must be semantically coherent within the central ontology. To illustrate this approach in an industrial setting, they discuss an existing implementation that conducted international commercial transactions on the World-Wide Web. Agents operating within a federated architecture construct, populate by Web-based elicitation, and manipulate a distributed composite transaction object to effect transport of goods over the US/Mexico border.

  19. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. PMID:23062586

  20. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  1. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  2. The linguistic construction of expert identity in professor-student discussions of science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, Alandeom W.; Sadler, Troy D.; Suslak, Daniel F.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines how participation in a verbal exchange during an inquiry-based classroom activity allows three college students and their science instructor to use linguistic signs (choices of words, grammatical structures, discursive structures, prosody and poetic discourse) to construct authority and expertise. Our work explores linguistic and interactional processes of identification (the dynamic construction and transaction of expert identity) and examines how discursive strategies adopted by the professor at different moments of the verbal exchange influence the students' subsequent discursive practices and perceptions of authority. We adopt a dialogic, socio-constructivist perspective on identity, viewing personal identities as being partially constructed via interactional positioning. Our findings reveal that the attainment of expertise involves two different types of language-mediated processes: the transmission of a professional vision or intension and the emergence of a perception of agency among students. The former is centered on referential-denotative meanings of speech (elicitation of standard account and operational definition) while the latter requires effective use of pragmatic-performative functions of speech (non-evaluative and more than minimal recipient practices). Consideration is given to the need for science instructors to be able to utilize pragmatic functions of language strategically to encourage students to position themselves within the identity of science expertise.

  3. Eliciting symptoms interpreted as normal by patients with early-stage lung cancer: could GP elicitation of normalised symptoms reduce delay in diagnosis? Cross-sectional interview study

    PubMed Central

    Brindle, Lucy; Pope, Catherine; Corner, Jessica; Leydon, Geraldine; Banerjee, Anindo

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate why symptoms indicative of early-stage lung cancer (LC) were not presented to general practitioners (GPs) and how early symptoms might be better elicited within primary care. Design, setting and participants A qualitative cross-sectional interview study about symptoms and help-seeking in 20 patients from three south England counties, awaiting resection of LC (suspected or histologically confirmed). Analysis drew on principles of discourse analysis and constant comparison to identify processes involved in interpretation and communication about symptoms, and explain non-presentation. Results Most participants experienced health changes possibly indicative of LC which had not been presented during GP consultations. Symptoms that were episodic, or potentially caused by ageing or lifestyle, were frequently not presented to GPs. In interviews, open questions about health changes/symptoms in general did not elicit these symptoms; they only emerged in response to closed questions detailing specific changes in health. Questions using disease-related labels, for example, pain or breathlessness, were less likely to elicit symptoms than questions that used non-disease terminology, such as aches, discomfort or ‘getting out of breath’. Most participants described themselves as feeling well and were reluctant to associate potentially explained, non-specific or episodic symptoms with LC, even after diagnosis. Conclusions Patients with early LC are unlikely to present symptoms possibly indicative of LC that they associate with normal processes, when attending primary care before diagnosis. Faced with patients at high LC risk, GPs will need to actively elicit potential LC symptoms not presented by the patient. Closed questions using non-disease terminology might better elicit normalised symptoms. PMID:23166137

  4. An expert system based intelligent control scheme for space bioreactors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    San, Ka-Yiu

    1988-01-01

    An expert system based intelligent control scheme is being developed for the effective control and full automation of bioreactor systems in space. The scheme developed will have the capability to capture information from various resources including heuristic information from process researchers and operators. The knowledge base of the expert system should contain enough expertise to perform on-line system identification and thus be able to adapt the controllers accordingly with minimal human supervision.

  5. Robotic planner expert system (RPLANES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grice, Ervin Oneal

    1987-01-01

    The Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis of the Johnson Space Center has developed a prototype of an expert system for robotic planning. A robot is given a high level goal to perform an action (i.e., swap, adjust, or stow) on a component unit of an object such as a satellite and the Robotic Planner Expert System (RPLANES) generates the necessary goals for arm actions. RPLANES is designed using the Inference Corp. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) development tool. It resides on a SYMBOLICS 3670. RPLANES and its evolution are described.

  6. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  7. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. PMID:25725910

  8. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime


  9. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

  10. Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

    PubMed

    Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

    2007-03-01

    Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge. PMID:17365646

  11. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  12. Expert Systems for Reference Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrot, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Discussion of library reference work that may be suitable for use of expert systems focuses on (1) information and literature searches, and (2) requests to interpret bibliographic references and locate items listed. Systems and computer-assisted instruction modules designed for information retrieval at the University of Waterloo Library are


  13. Expert Panels, Consumers, and Chemistry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rehfeldt, Thomas K.

    2000-01-01

    Studied the attributes, properties, and consumer acceptance of antiperspirant products through responses of 400 consumers (consumer data), expert panel data, and analytical data about the products. Results show how the Rasch model can provide the tool necessary to combine data from several sources. (SLD)

  14. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses


  15. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  16. An expert sample analysis planner

    SciTech Connect

    Spencer, W.A.; Parks, W.S.

    1990-01-01

    Analytical chemists are faced with the problem of choosing an appropriate analytical technique for a particular sample and weighing the options as they affect precision, time, and cost. This paper describes a computer technique to assist managers in reviewing the alternatives and to match needs with the resources available. This paper proposes an expert system, knowledgeable of analytical chemistry techniques, to create sample plans. Sample planning is an appropriate topic for expert systems because scarce human expertise is required to complete sample plans. A sample plan is the description of how samples received at the Savannah River Laboratory are handled, controlled, measured, and dispositioned. Sample planning is difficult because multiple experts are needed, planning is not a static function, and planning is time consuming. An Expert Sample Analyses Planner (XSAP) is proposed to create sample plans for laboratory managers. XSAP supplements the scarce knowledge of analytical techniques creating sample plans based on analysis constraints, methods available, and time requirements. XSAP interacts with the chemist to suggest sample plans. XSAP considers equipment available locally, at other Savannah River laboratories, at other Department of Energy facilities, and at other commercial laboratories. XSAP allows options on scheduling: best solution, cheapest solution, best local solution, and fastest solution. 26 refs.

  17. The Appropriateness of Renal Angioplasty. The ANPARIA Software: A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Gerbaud, Laurent; Manhes, Geraud; Debourse, Juliette; Gouby, Gerald Glanddier, Phyllis-Yvonne; Vader, John-Paul; Boyer, Louis Deteix, Patrice

    2008-11-15

    Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size >7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis ({>=}70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anpariahttp://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anparia/). In numerous clinical situations uncertainty remains as to whether PTRA prevents deterioration of renal function.

  18. Biosynthesis, elicitation and roles of monocot terpenoid phytoalexins.

    PubMed

    Schmelz, Eric A; Huffaker, Alisa; Sims, James W; Christensen, Shawn A; Lu, Xuan; Okada, Kazunori; Peters, Reuben J

    2014-08-01

    A long-standing goal in plant research is to optimize the protective function of biochemical agents that impede pest and pathogen attack. Nearly 40 years ago, pathogen-inducible diterpenoid production was described in rice, and these compounds were shown to function as antimicrobial phytoalexins. Using rice and maize as examples, we discuss recent advances in the discovery, biosynthesis, elicitation and functional characterization of monocot terpenoid phytoalexins. The recent expansion of known terpenoid phytoalexins now includes not only the labdane-related diterpenoid superfamily but also casbane-type diterpenoids and ÎČ-macrocarpene-derived sequiterpenoids. Biochemical approaches have been used to pair pathway precursors and end products with cognate biosynthetic genes. The number of predicted terpenoid phytoalexins is expanding through advances in cereal genome annotation and terpene synthase characterization that likewise enable discoveries outside the Poaceae. At the cellular level, conclusive evidence now exists for multiple plant receptors of fungal-derived chitin elicitors, phosphorylation of membrane-associated signaling complexes, activation of mitogen-activated protein kinase, involvement of phytohormone signals, and the existence of transcription factors that mediate the expression of phytoalexin biosynthetic genes and subsequent accumulation of pathway end products. Elicited production of terpenoid phytoalexins exhibit additional biological functions, including root exudate-mediated allelopathy and insect antifeedant activity. Such findings have encouraged consideration of additional interactions that blur traditionally discrete phytoalexin classifications. The establishment of mutant collections and increasing ease of genetic transformation assists critical examination of further biological roles. Future research directions include examination of terpenoid phytoalexin precursors and end products as potential signals mediating plant physiological processes. PMID:24450747

  19. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems: Will They Change the Library? Papers Presented at the Annual Clinic on Library Applications of Data Processing (27th, Urbana, Illinois, March 25-27, 1990). Illinois, March 25-27, 1990).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lancaster, F. W., Ed.; Smith, Linda C., Ed.

    Some of the 12 conference papers presented in this proceedings focus on the present and potential capabilities of artificial intelligence and expert systems as they relate to a wide range of library applications, including descriptive cataloging, technical services, collection development, subject indexing, reference services, database searching,…

  20. Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a…

  1. Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a


  2. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

  3. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and physiological (heart…

  4. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing


  5. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and physiological (heart


  6. ATS displays: A reasoning visualization tool for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1990-01-01

    Reasoning visualization is a useful tool that can help users better understand the inherently non-sequential logic of an expert system. While this is desirable in most all expert system applications, it is especially so for such critical systems as those destined for space-based operations. A hierarchical view of the expert system reasoning process and some characteristics of these various levels is presented. Also presented are Abstract Time Slice (ATS) displays, a tool to visualize the plethora of interrelated information available at the host inferencing language level of reasoning. The usefulness of this tool is illustrated with some examples from a prototype potable water expert system for possible use aboard Space Station Freedom.

  7. Real-time space system control with expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leinweber, David; Hawkinson, Lowell; Perry, John

    1988-01-01

    Many aspects of space system operations involve continuous control of real time processes. These processes include electrical power system monitoring, prelaunch and ongoing propulsion system health and maintenance, environmental and life support systems, space suit checkout, onboard manufacturing, and vehicle servicing including satellites, shuttles, orbital maneuvering vehicles, orbital transfer vehicles and remote teleoperators. Traditionally, monitoring of these critical real time processes has been done by trained human experts monitoring telemetry data. However, the long duration of future space missions and the high cost of crew time in space creates a powerful economic incentive for the development of highly autonomous knowledge based expert control procedures for these space systems.

  8. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    PubMed

    AnadĂłn, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-01

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies. PMID:23002786

  9. Affective monitoring: a generic mechanism for affect elicitation.

    PubMed

    Phaf, R Hans; Rotteveel, Mark

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we sketch a new framework for affect elicitation, which is based on previous evolutionary and connectionist modeling and experimental work from our group. Affective monitoring is considered a local match-mismatch process within a module of the neural network. Negative affect is raised instantly by mismatches, incongruency, disfluency, novelty, incoherence, and dissonance, whereas positive affect follows from matches, congruency, fluency, familiarity, coherence, and resonance, at least when an initial mismatch can be solved quickly. Affective monitoring is considered an evolutionary-early conflict and change detection process operating at the same level as, for instance, attentional selection. It runs in parallel and imparts affective flavor to emotional behavior systems, which involve evolutionary-prepared stimuli and action tendencies related to for instance defensive, exploratory, attachment, or appetitive behavior. Positive affect is represented in the networks by high-frequency oscillations, presumably in the gamma band. Negative affect corresponds to more incoherent lower-frequency oscillations, presumably in the theta band. For affect to become conscious, large-scale synchronization of the oscillations over the network and the construction of emotional experiences are required. These constructions involve perceptions of bodily states and action tendencies, but also appraisals as well as efforts to regulate the emotion. Importantly, affective monitoring accompanies every kind of information processing, but conscious emotions, which result from the later integration of affect in a cognitive context, are much rarer events. PMID:22403557

  10. Affective Monitoring: A Generic Mechanism for Affect Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Phaf, R. Hans; Rotteveel, Mark

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we sketch a new framework for affect elicitation, which is based on previous evolutionary and connectionist modeling and experimental work from our group. Affective monitoring is considered a local match–mismatch process within a module of the neural network. Negative affect is raised instantly by mismatches, incongruency, disfluency, novelty, incoherence, and dissonance, whereas positive affect follows from matches, congruency, fluency, familiarity, coherence, and resonance, at least when an initial mismatch can be solved quickly. Affective monitoring is considered an evolutionary-early conflict and change detection process operating at the same level as, for instance, attentional selection. It runs in parallel and imparts affective flavor to emotional behavior systems, which involve evolutionary-prepared stimuli and action tendencies related to for instance defensive, exploratory, attachment, or appetitive behavior. Positive affect is represented in the networks by high-frequency oscillations, presumably in the gamma band. Negative affect corresponds to more incoherent lower-frequency oscillations, presumably in the theta band. For affect to become conscious, large-scale synchronization of the oscillations over the network and the construction of emotional experiences are required. These constructions involve perceptions of bodily states and action tendencies, but also appraisals as well as efforts to regulate the emotion. Importantly, affective monitoring accompanies every kind of information processing, but conscious emotions, which result from the later integration of affect in a cognitive context, are much rarer events. PMID:22403557

  11. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  12. Expert credibility in climate change

    PubMed Central

    Anderegg, William R. L.; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H.

    2010-01-01

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers. PMID:20566872

  13. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-31

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  14. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  15. Expert searching in public health

    PubMed Central

    Alpi, Kristine M.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: The article explores the characteristics of public health information needs and the resources available to address those needs that distinguish it as an area of searching requiring particular expertise. Methods: Public health searching activities from reference questions and literature search requests at a large, urban health department library were reviewed to identify the challenges in finding relevant public health information. Results: The terminology of the information request frequently differed from the vocabularies available in the databases. Searches required the use of multiple databases and/or Web resources with diverse interfaces. Issues of the scope and features of the databases relevant to the search questions were considered. Conclusion: Expert searching in public health differs from other types of expert searching in the subject breadth and technical demands of the databases to be searched, the fluidity and lack of standardization of the vocabulary, and the relative scarcity of high-quality investigations at the appropriate level of geographic specificity. Health sciences librarians require a broad exposure to databases, gray literature, and public health terminology to perform as expert searchers in public health. PMID:15685281

  16. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  17. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. PMID:20702026

  18. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm.

    PubMed

    Billari, Francesco C; Graziani, Rebecca; Melilli, Eugenio

    2014-10-01

    This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution: that is, fertility, mortality, and migration. Here, two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but rather is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. This article provides the questionnaire designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian population from 2010 to 2065 is proposed. PMID:25124024

  19. Expert stakeholder attitudes and support for alternative water sources in a groundwater depleted region.

    PubMed

    Boyer, Treavor H; Overdevest, Christine; Christiansen, Lisa; Ishii, Stephanie K L

    2012-10-15

    The main objectives of this research were to quantify the risks/benefits and impacts of alternative water sources (AWSs) as perceived by expert stakeholders and to evaluate the overall support for multiple AWSs by expert stakeholders. The St. Johns River (SJR) basin, FL, USA was chosen as a case study for AWSs because it is a fresh groundwater depleted region and there are ongoing activities related to water supply planning. Expert stakeholders included federal, state, and local governments, public utilities, consulting engineering and industry, and environmental and social non-governmental organizations. AWSs under consideration in the SJR basin include surface water, desalination, water reclamation, and water conservation. A two-phase research approach was followed that focused on expert stakeholders. First, an elicitation study was used to identify salient beliefs about AWSs. Open-ended questions were asked about the risks/benefits of AWSs in terms of the three pillars of sustainability: ecological, economic, and human health impacts. Second, an online survey was constructed using beliefs identified during the elicitation study. The online survey was used to quantify attitudes toward and overall support for AWSs. The salient beliefs of expert stakeholders were dominated by the ecological pillar of sustainability. The support of expert stakeholders for AWSs, from least favorable to most favorable, was surface water withdrawals

  20. A middle man approach to knowledge acquisition in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, Janice A.; Lin, Min-Jin; Mayer, Richard J.; Sterle, Mark E.

    1990-01-01

    The Weed Control Advisor (WCA) is a robust expert system that has been successfully implemented on an IBM AT class microcomputer in CLIPS. The goal of the WCA was to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an economical, efficient, user friendly system through which Texas rice producers could obtain expert level knowledge regarding herbicide application for weed control. During the development phase of the WCA, an improved knowledge acquisition method which we call the Middle Man Approach (MMA) was applied to facilitate the communication process between the domain experts and the knowledge engineer. The MMA served to circumvent the problems associated with the more traditional forms of knowledge acquisition by placing the Middle Man, a semi-expert in the problem domain with some computer expertise, at the site of system development. The middle man was able to contribute to system development in two major ways. First, the Middle Man had experience working in rice production and could assume many of the responsibilities normally performed by the domain experts such as explaining the background of the problem domain and determining the important relations. Second, the Middle Man was familiar with computers and worked closely with the system developers to update the rules after the domain experts reviewed the prototype, contribute to the help menus and explanation portions of the expert system, conduct the testing that is required to insure that the expert system gives the expected results answer questions in a timely way, help the knowledge engineer structure the domain knowledge into a useable form, and provide insight into the end user's profile which helped in the development of the simple user friendly interface. The final results were not only that both time expended and costs were greatly reduced by using the MMA, but the quality of the system was improved. This papa will introduce the WCA system and then discuss traditional knowledge acquisition along with some of the problems often associated with it, the MMA methodology, and its application to the WCA development.

  1. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  2. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  3. An expert system for restructurable control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1988-01-01

    Work in progrss on an expert system which restructures and tunes control systems online in real-time is presented. The expert system coordinates the different methods involved in redesigning and implementing the control strategies due to plant changes.

  4. ESKAPE/CF: A knowledge-acquisition tool for expert systems using cognitive feedback. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Connor, J.W.

    1991-03-01

    The major bottleneck in the construction of expert systems is the time-consuming process of acquiring knowledge from experts. Automated knowledge acquisition tools have demonstrated the ability to reduce the time required to construct expert system knowledge bases and are supported by both knowledge engineers and experts. However, due to limitations in their underlying psychological paradigms, existing tools may not be well-suited to extracting semantic or procedural knowledge from an expert. This thesis designs and implements an Expert System Knowledge Acquisition and Policy Evaluation tool using Cognitive Feedback (ESKAPE/CF), based on Lens model techniques which have demonstrated effectiveness in capturing policy knowledge. The system is designed to be used interactively by an expert to reduce the historically lengthy interactions with a knowledge engineer. Additionally, the use of cognitive feedback techniques should enable the system to capture expertise that has heretofore been unobtainable by existing knowledge acquisition tools.

  5. Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

  6. Rethinking Expert Testimony in Education Rights Litigation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welner, Kevin G.; Kupermintz, Haggai

    2004-01-01

    Courts often rely on the testimony of experts to understand arguments and implications in education rights litigation. But expert testimony, and statistical testimony in particular, can offer a false sense of security for the unwary. This article uses expert testimony offered in two recent desegregation cases to consider whether sufficient…

  7. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos


  8. Expert Systems and Intelligent Information Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, H. M.

    1987-01-01

    Explores what an intelligent information retrieval system involves and why expert system techniques might interest system designers. Expert systems research is reviewed with emphasis on components, architecture, and computer interaction, and it is concluded that information retrieval is not an ideal problem domain for expert system application at…

  9. Interfaces and Expert Systems for Online Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kehoe, Cynthia A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper reviews the history of separate online system interfaces which led to efforts to develop expert systems for searching databases, particularly for end users, and introduces the research on such expert systems. Appended is a bibliography of sources on interfaces and expert systems for online retrieval. (Author/EJS)

  10. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  11. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  12. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-03-14

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  13. Expert Meeting Report. Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    The NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership held an expert meeting on Foundations–Research Results on November 15, 2011, in Minneapolis, MN. Audience participation was actively encouraged during each presentation to uncover needs and promote dialog among researchers and industry professionals. Key results were: greater understanding of the role of moisture transport through foundation and insulation materials and its potential impact on building durability; greater understanding of the role of foundation type in the process of selecting an insulation system for energy performance and building durability; need for research to quantify the risks associated with insulation processes to better enable users to weigh costs and benefits against the existing conditions of a home; need for improved performance modeling capabilities that address variations in foundation types and soil conditions.

  14. Embodiment of motor skills when observing expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Sinnett, Scott; Hodges, Nicola J; Chua, Romeo; Kingstone, Alan

    2011-04-01

    If people are shown a dynamic movie of an action such as kicking a soccer ball or hitting a tennis ball, they will respond to it faster if it requires the same effector. This standard congruency effect was reported to reverse when participants viewed static images of famous athletes not actually performing an action. It was suggested that the congruent response was inhibited because of a social contrast effect, based on an implied action, whereby responders viewed themselves as comparatively worse than the professional athlete. The present study recorded hand and foot responses when identifying static images of both famous and novice athletes in soccer and tennis. The action was either explicit or implied. In Experiment 1, a standard congruency effect was found for all images. In Experiment 2, when a response was based on the identity of the athlete rather than their expertise, the standard congruency effect was enhanced for images of novice athletes, but was eliminated for experts, suggesting a social contrast effect. Our study is the first to show that embodiment effects can be seen for implied and explicit action images of both novices and experts, and that static images are capable of eliciting priming effects associated with sport-relevant effector pairings. PMID:20967689

  15. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  16. Expert-novice differences in SMR activity during dart throwing.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Ming-Yang; Hung, Chiao-Ling; Huang, Chung-Ju; Chang, Yu-Kai; Lo, Li-Chuan; Shen, Cheng; Hung, Tsung-Min

    2015-09-01

    Previous evidence suggests that augmented sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) activity is related to the superior regulation of processing cognitive-motor information in motor performance. However, no published studies have examined the relationship between SMR and performance in precision sports; thus, this study examined the relationship between SMR activity and the level of skilled performance in tasks requiring high levels of attention (e.g., dart throwing). We hypothesized that skilled performance would be associated with higher SMR activity. Fourteen dart-throwing experts and eleven novices were recruited. Participants were requested to perform 60 dart throws while EEG was recorded. The 2(Group: Expert, Novice)Ś2(Time window: -2000 ms to -1000 ms, -1000 ms to 0 ms) ANOVA showed that the dart-throwing experts maintained a relatively higher SMR power than the novices before dart release. These results suggest that SMR might reflect the adaptive regulation of cognitive-motor processing during the preparatory period. PMID:26277266

  17. Asynchronous production systems for real-time expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Sabharwal, A.S.; Iyengar, S.S.; Weisbin, C.R.; Pin, F.G.

    1988-01-01

    Intelligent Computing Systems for Autonomous Mobile Robots and Process Control applications require an integration of traditional Expert system technologies with real-time response and control capabilities. To address such requirements, we propose an Asynchronous Production System (APS), which is a rule-based inference engine capable of monitoring and processing asynchronous, real-time information. The primary motivation of the proposed APS is to provide a unique and convenient mechanism for development of rule-based expert systems capable of dynamic and rapid interaction with their environments. This paper elaborates on the architectural, operational and implementational ramifications of Asynchronous Production Systems. To facilitate its description an example of an APS-based, distributed expert system is presented to handle the task of autonomous navigation in the presence of unexpected, moving obstacles in a mobile robot. 26 refs., 10 figs.

  18. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller on-line for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  19. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  20. The role of the expert witness.

    PubMed

    Jerrold, Laurance

    2007-08-01

    The role of expert witnesses in medical malpractice litigation is often misunderstood. Much maligned, the expert has been the subject of castigation by a range of people, from his professional colleagues to the jurists who preside over his testimony. From an academic perspective, the expert witness is a necessary evil, and his denigration is his own doing; for the expert is a neutral character who creates his own professional persona. This purpose of this article is to serve as a primer for those interested in understanding the role that the expert is supposed to play in litigation, and the factors surrounding his activities. PMID:17888787

  1. Social conflicts elicit an N400-like component.

    PubMed

    Huang, Yi; Kendrick, Keith M; Yu, Rongjun

    2014-12-01

    When people have different opinions, they often adjust their own attitude to match that of others, known as social conformity. How social conflicts trigger subsequent conformity remains unclear. One possibility is that a conflict with the group opinion is perceived as a violation of social information, analogous to using wrong grammar, and activates conflict monitoring and adjustment mechanisms. Using event related potential (ERP) recording combined with a face attractiveness judgment task, we investigated the neural encoding of social conflicts. We found that social conflicts elicit an N400-like negative deflection, being more negative for conflict with group opinions than no-conflict condition. The social conflict related signals also have a bi-directional profile similar to reward prediction error signals: it was more negative for under-estimation (i.e. oneŚłs own ratings were smaller than group ratings) than over-estimation, and the larger the differences between ratings, the larger the N400 amplitude. The N400 effects were significantly diminished in the non-social condition. We conclude that social conflicts are encoded in a bidirectional fashion in the N400-like component, similar to the pattern of reward-based prediction error signals. Our findings also suggest that the N400, a well-established ERP component encoding semantic violation, might be involved in social conflict processing and social learning. PMID:25446967

  2. Microbial community changes elicited by exposure to cyanobacterial allelochemicals.

    PubMed

    Leăo, Pedro N; Ramos, Vitor; Vale, Micaela; Machado, Joăo P; Vasconcelos, Vitor M

    2012-01-01

    An increasing body of evidence points out that allelopathy may be an important process shaping microbial communities in aquatic ecosystems. Cyanobacteria have well-documented allelopathic properties, mainly derived from the evaluation of the activity of allelopathic extracts or pure compounds towards monocultures of selected target microorganisms. Consequently, little is known regarding the community dynamics of microorganisms associated with allelopathic interactions. In this laboratory-based study, a Microcystis spp.-dominated microbial community from a freshwater lake was exposed, for 15 days, to exudates from the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria sp. strain LEGE 05292 in laboratory conditions. This cyanobacterium is known to produce the allelochemicals portoamides, which were among the exuded compounds. The community composition was followed (by means of polymerase chain reaction followed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and microscopic analyses) and compared to that of a non-exposed situation. Following exposure, clear differences in the community structure were observed, in particular for cyanobacteria and unicellular eukaryotic taxa. Interestingly, distinct Microcystis genotypes present in the community were differentially impacted by the exposure, highlighting the fine-scale dynamics elicited by the exudates. These results support a role for cyanobacterial allelochemicals in the structuring of aquatic microbial communities. PMID:21947429

  3. Risk management and expert system development methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hull, Larry; Gilstrap, Lewey

    1991-01-01

    A risk-based expert-system development methodology has been developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and to serve as a standard for developing expert systems. Expert-system development differs from conventional software development in that the information needed to prepare system requirements for expert systems is not known at the outset of a project and is obtained by knowledge engineering methods. The paper describes the expert-system life cycle, development methodology, and the approach taken in this methodology to manage and reduce the risks in expert system development. Also examined are the risks of using and of not using a methodology, the studies undertaken to validate the provisions of the expert system development methodology, and the results of these validation studies.

  4. Expert system validation in prolog

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  5. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--legal evaluation of medical expert opinion].

    PubMed

    Schlund, G H

    1996-11-01

    The constitutional position of the judge and the medical expert witness during a lawsuit is explained. From this, the demands on a judicial expert witness for the preparation of his expert assessment are derived and the judge's function in the appointment of the expert witness is explained. Additionally, criteria, duties, and rules are worked out, which should be followed by the judge during assessment of the medical expert testimony. PMID:9064930

  6. The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Matching: Experts Can Do a Lot with a Little

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Matthew B.; Tangen, Jason M.

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of “information” available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect—experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints—but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony. PMID:25517509

  7. The nature of expertise in fingerprint matching: experts can do a lot with a little.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Matthew B; Tangen, Jason M

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of "information" available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect-experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints-but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony. PMID:25517509

  8. [Psychological expert assessment as an intervention in child custody conflicts during divorce].

    PubMed

    Scheuerer-Englisch, H; Suess, G J; Schwabe-Höllein, M

    1994-12-01

    How to deal appropriately with families affected by divorce has also been discussed among psychological experts for years. In this article the psychological expert opinion in a divorce is described as a possibility of intervention in a current separation conflict. Based upon a process oriented and systemic point of view the corresponding main principles and approaches are described which are essential for the task of forming an expert opinion in such a conflict. PMID:7870710

  9. NASA ground terminal communication equipment automated fault isolation expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Y. K.; Wetzel, C. R.

    1990-01-01

    The prototype expert systems are described that diagnose the Distribution and Switching System I and II (DSS1 and DSS2), Statistical Multiplexers (SM), and Multiplexer and Demultiplexer systems (MDM) at the NASA Ground Terminal (NGT). A system level fault isolation expert system monitors the activities of a selected data stream, verifies that the fault exists in the NGT and identifies the faulty equipment. Equipment level fault isolation expert systems are invoked to isolate the fault to a Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) level. Input and sometimes output data stream activities for the equipment are available. The system level fault isolation expert system compares the equipment input and output status for a data stream and performs loopback tests (if necessary) to isolate the faulty equipment. The equipment level fault isolation system utilizes the process of elimination and/or the maintenance personnel's fault isolation experience stored in its knowledge base. The DSS1, DSS2 and SM fault isolation systems, using the knowledge of the current equipment configuration and the equipment circuitry issues a set of test connections according to the predefined rules. The faulty component or board can be identified by the expert system by analyzing the test results. The MDM fault isolation system correlates the failure symptoms with the faulty component based on maintenance personnel experience. The faulty component can be determined by knowing the failure symptoms. The DSS1, DSS2, SM, and MDM equipment simulators are implemented in PASCAL. The DSS1 fault isolation expert system was converted to C language from VP-Expert and integrated into the NGT automation software for offline switch diagnoses. Potentially, the NGT fault isolation algorithms can be used for the DSS1, SM, amd MDM located at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).

  10. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain

    PubMed Central

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define “expertise” from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of “pure” mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

  11. Specification for Qualification and Certification for Level III - Expert Welders.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Welding Society, Miami, FL.

    This document defines the requirements and program for the American Welding Society to certify expert welders through an evaluation process entailing performance qualification and practical knowledge tests requiring the use of advanced reading, computational, and manual skills. The following items are included: statement of the standard's scope;…

  12. Automated Tools for Subject Matter Expert Evaluation of Automated Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williamson, David M.; Bejar, Isaac I.; Sax, Anne

    2004-01-01

    As automated scoring of complex constructed-response examinations reaches operational status, the process of evaluating the quality of resultant scores, particularly in contrast to scores of expert human graders, becomes as complex as the data itself. Using a vignette from the Architectural Registration Examination (ARE), this article explores the…

  13. Experts Fear Handwriting Will become a Lost Art

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zubrzycki, Jaclyn

    2012-01-01

    Educators and experts say students still need to learn penmanship, even in a digital age. Handwriting still has a place in the digital age, its proponents say, and they hoped that what they billed as a "summit" on the subject at a conference would spotlight their case for the enduring value of handwriting in the learning process. The Washington…

  14. Using Filmed Expert Demonstrations in Counsellor Education: Suggestions and Recommendations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keats, Patrice A.

    2009-01-01

    Although research exists about student learning processes using filmed experts demonstrating counselling systems and skills, there appears to be no formal direction or advice for instructors or supervisors on how to view, use, or teach with these types of films. This article attempts to fill this gap by combining ideas from the literature on…

  15. The Metamorphosis of Industrial Designers from Novices to Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Ju-Joan; Chen, Po-Yu; Chen, Chun-Di

    2016-01-01

    Professional training for designers is crucial in the field of design studies. The characteristics of novices versus those of expert designers have been identified in the literature; however, studies exploring the issue of professional training processes in the actual workplace are not well developed. Our study addresses the topic by using


  16. Long-term conditions. 3: Being an expert patient.

    PubMed

    Mayor, Vina

    2006-02-01

    This third article in the series focusing on long-term conditions explores the patient perspective. Drawing on the experiences of seven people affected by a variety of long-term conditions, it illustrates how the journey towards being an expert patient is often lengthy and traumatic. Pre- and post-diagnosis phases are narrated, and the process of becoming an expert patient described. The articles suggests that there is significant potential for the development of a reciprocal relationship between patients and health professionals framed by mutual learning and advice. PMID:16493308

  17. YUCSA: A CLIPS expert database system to monitor academic performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toptsis, Anestis A.; Ho, Frankie; Leindekar, Milton; Foon, Debra Low; Carbonaro, Mike

    1991-01-01

    The York University CLIPS Student Administrator (YUCSA), an expert database system implemented in C Language Integrated Processing System (CLIPS), for monitoring the academic performance of undergraduate students at York University, is discussed. The expert system component in the system has already been implemented for two major departments, and it is under testing and enhancement for more departments. Also, more elaborate user interfaces are under development. We describe the design and implementation of the system, problems encountered, and immediate future plans. The system has excellent maintainability and it is very efficient, taking less than one minute to complete an assessment of one student.

  18. Model-based expert systems for linac computer controls

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, M.J.

    1988-09-01

    The use of machine modeling and beam simulation programs for the control of accelerator operation has become standard practice. The success of a model-based control operation depends on how the parameter to be controlled is measured, how the measured data is analyzed, how the result of the analysis is interpreted, and how a solution is implemented. There is considerable interest in applying expert systems technology that can automate all of these processes. The design of an expert system to control the beam trajectory in linear accelerators will be discussed as an illustration of this approach. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  19. The business of being an expert witness and legal consultant.

    PubMed

    Perry, S E; Vogel, J R

    1993-05-01

    Nurses serve as expert witnesses and provide legal and other consultation for which they receive compensation. Although numerous articles describe the process of serving as an expert witness and providing consultation, the business aspects of such consultation is seldom addressed. Most nurses have little experience in managing the business and financial aspects of such consultation. To be a successful consultant, clinical expertise and business acumen are necessary. Suggestions are given for creating a system of record keeping, keeping track of expenses, billing for services, reporting expenses and income for tax purposes, and marketing services. PMID:8343934

  20. Optical expert system based on matrix-algebraic formulation.

    PubMed

    Jau, J Y; Kiamilev, F; Fainman, Y; Esener, S; Lee, S H

    1988-12-15

    This paper describes an expert system paradigm based on matrix algebra. The knowledge base of the expert system is stored in binary matrices, while the learning and inference processes are done by matrix algebra operations. This method is highly parallel and can take full advantage of the inherent parallelism and connectivity of optics. An optoelectronic architecture that implements this system is presented. In addition, the method is compared with the sequential search methods written in the programming language PROLOG to illustrate their differences and commonalities. PMID:20539715

  1. Program for Experimentation With Expert Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engle, S. W.

    1986-01-01

    CERBERUS is forward-chaining, knowledge-based system program useful for experimentation with expert systems. Inference-engine mechanism performs deductions according to user-supplied rule set. Information stored in intermediate area, and user interrogated only when no applicable data found in storage. Each assertion posed by CERBERUS answered with certainty ranging from 0 to 100 percent. Rule processor stops investigating applicable rules when goal reaches certainty of 95 percent or higher. Capable of operating for wide variety of domains. Sample rule files included for animal identification, pixel classification in image processing, and rudimentary car repair for novice mechanic. User supplies set of end goals or actions. System complexity decided by user's rule file. CERBERUS written in FORTRAN 77.

  2. Expert-System Consultant To Operating Personnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heard, Astrid E.; Pinkowski, Patrick P.; Adler, Richard M.; Hosken, R. Bruce

    1992-01-01

    Artificial intelligence aids engineers and technicians in controlling and monitoring complicated systems. Operations Analyst for Distributed Systems (OPERA) software is developmental suite of expert-system computer programs helping engineers and technicians operating from number of computer workstations to control and monitor spacecraft during prelaunch and launch phases of operation. OPERA designed to serve as consultant to operating engineers and technicians. It preprocesses incoming data, using expertise collected from conglomerate of specialists in design and operation of various parts of system. Driven by menus and mouse-activated commands. Modified versions of OPERA used in chemical-processing plants, factories, banks, and other enterprises in which there are distributed-computer systems including computers that monitor or control other computers.

  3. Biosimilar infliximab: an expert view.

    PubMed

    Genazzani, A; Altomare, G; Balato, N; Cusano, F; De Pità, O; Loconsole, F; Micali, G; Piaserico, S; Girolomoni, G

    2015-08-01

    CT-P13, a biosimilar of infliximab, was the first biosimilar monoclonal antibody to be approved in both the European Union and Korea. As a monoclonal antibody, CT-P13 is a large molecule with a high molecular weight, and as such it differs from other biosimilars currently in the market. The comparability exercise for CT-P13, therefore, requires special consideration, as it was the first demonstration of biosimilarity between a biosimilar monoclonal antibody and its originator. This paper summarizes current regulations on the approval of biosimilars, describes the evidence leading to the approval of CT-P13, and discusses the potential role of this molecule in the Italian scenario on the basis of the view of a group of experts. PMID:25747260

  4. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

  5. Web-based expert system for foundry pollution prevention

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.

    2004-02-01

    Pollution prevention is a complex task. Many small foundries lack the in-house expertise to perform these tasks. Expert systems are a type of computer information system that incorporates artificial intelligence. As noted in the literature, they provide a means of automating specialized expertise. This approach may be further leveraged by implementing the expert system on the internet (or world-wide web). This will allow distribution of the expertise to a variety of geographically-dispersed foundries. The purpose of this research is to develop a prototype web-based expert system to support pollution prevention for the foundry industry. The prototype system identifies potential emissions for a specified process, and also provides recommendations for the prevention of these contaminants. The system is viewed as an initial step toward assisting the foundry industry in better meeting government pollution regulations, as well as improving operating efficiencies within these companies.

  6. Courting the expert: a clash of culture?

    PubMed

    Caldwell, P

    2005-06-01

    This article reviews the utility of expert opinion in legal proceedings and the deployment of expert witnesses in adversarial litigation. The use of expert witnesses to assist courts in making just and fair conclusions may be contrasted with the partisan interests of those who call them. An adversarial system is a bad method of scientific enquiry and undermines the court's capacity to reach the 'right' answer. As a consequence, courts may reach the wrong conclusion based on bad science. The role of the expert as a witness places strain on an expert to provide certainty, where in fact there may be none. Recent reforms in the civil courts have changed little and the problem is even more acute in criminal trials. The expert can rely solely on the integrity of his or her own opinion, tempered with a little humility. However, when filtered through the rhetoric and advocacy of a court arena, even this may be compromised. PMID:15952998

  7. Expert Meeting Report: Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.

  8. Scientists in the courtroom: basic pointers for the expert scientific witness.

    PubMed Central

    Eaton, D L; Kalman, D

    1994-01-01

    The need for expert and unbiased participation in legal proceedings by physicians, industrial hygienists, toxicologists, environmental scientists, regulators, and similar professionals is hampered by lack of familiarity with the requirements of expert testimony and lack of opportunities for professional training in this activity. Drawing on material developed in a continuing education course offered by the University of Washington, we describe the role and process of being an expert witness and provide basic information regarding good professional practices pertaining to the testifying expert role. PMID:7895706

  9. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  10. Medical expert systems developed in j.MD, a Java based expert system shell: application in clinical laboratories.

    PubMed

    Van Hoof, Viviane; Wormek, Arno; Schleutermann, Sylvia; Schumacher, Theo; Lothaire, Olivier; Trendelenburg, Christian

    2004-01-01

    Growing complexity of diagnostic tests, combined with increased workload, stringent laboratory accreditation demands, continuous shortening of turn-around-time and budget restrictions have forced laboratories to automate most of their iterative tasks. Introduction of artificial intelligence by means of expert systems has gained an important place in this automation process. Different parts of clinical laboratory activity can benefit from their implementation and the present project deals with one aspect, namely the clinical interpretation of diagnostic tests. This paper describes how j.MD, a new Java based expert system shell, was used to reprogram the expert system for interpretation of amylase isoenzyme patterns that has been in use for many years in our laboratory, and that was originally programmed in Pro.MD, a Prolog based expert system shell. One of the most important advantages of the j.MD system is its bidirectional link with the laboratory information system. This project shows how expert systems for the interpretation of complex diagnostic tests that demand specific expertise can become an integrated part of the automated clinical chemistry lab. PMID:15360781

  11. CLEAR: Communications Link Expert Assistance Resource

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hull, Larry G.; Hughes, Peter M.

    1987-01-01

    Communications Link Expert Assistance Resource (CLEAR) is a real time, fault diagnosis expert system for the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Mission Operations Room (MOR). The CLEAR expert system is an operational prototype which assists the MOR operator/analyst by isolating and diagnosing faults in the spacecraft communication link with the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) during periods of realtime data acquisition. The mission domain, user requirements, hardware configuration, expert system concept, tool selection, development approach, and system design were discussed. Development approach and system implementation are emphasized. Also discussed are system architecture, tool selection, operation, and future plans.

  12. Amphetamine elicited potential changes in vertebrate and invertebrate central neurons.

    PubMed

    Tsai, M C; Chen, Y H; Huang, S S

    2000-01-01

    The effects of amphetamine on potential changes in both vertebrate and invertebrate central neurons and factors affecting the potential changes were tested. The animals studied included mice, newborn rat and African snail. Seizure was elicited after lethal doses of d-amphetamine (75 mg/kg, i.p.) administration in mice. Repetitive firing of the action potentials were elicited after d-amphetamine (1-30 microM) administration in thin thalamic brain slices of newborn rat. Bursting firing of action potentials in the giant African central RP4 neuron were also elicited after d-amphetamine or l-amphetamine (0.27 mM) administration. The amphetamine elicited bursting firing of action potentials was not blocked even after high concentrations of d-tubocurarine, atropine, haloperidol, hexamethonium administration. Therefore, the amphetamine elicited potential changes may not be directly related to the activation of the receptors of the neuron. The bursting firing of action potentials elicited by amphetamine occurred 20-30 min after amphetamine administration extracellularly, even after high concentrations of d-amphetamine administration (0.27, 1 mM). However, the bursting firing of potentials occurred immediately if amphetamine was administrated intracellularly at lower concentration. Extracellular application of ruthenium red, the calcium antagonist, abolished the amphetamine elicited bursting firing of action potentials. If intracellular injection of EGTA, a calcium ion chelator, or injection with high concentrations of magnesium, the bursting firing of potentials were immediately abolished. These results suggested that the active site of amphetamine may be inside of the neuron and the calcium ion in the neuron played an important role on the bursting of potentials. In two-electrode voltage clamped RP4 neuron, amphetamine, at 0.27 mM, decreased the total inward and steady outward currents of the RP4 neuron. d-Amphetamine also decreased the calcium, Ia and the steady-state outward currents of the RP4 neuron. Besides, amphetamine elicited a negative slope resistance (NSR) if membrane potential was in the range of -50 to -10 mV. The NSR was decreased in cobalt substituted calcium free and sodium free solution. The effects of secondary messengers on the amphetamine elicited potential changes were tested. The bursting firing of action potentials elicited by amphetamine in central snail neurons decreased following extracellular application of H8 (N-(2-methyl-amino) ethyl-3-isoquinoline sulphonamide dihydrochloride), a specific protein kinase A inhibitor and anisomycin, a protein synthesis inhibitor. However, the bursting firing of action potentials were not affected after extracellular application of H7 (1,(5-isoquinolinesulphonyl)-2-methylpiperasine dihydrochloride), a specific protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitor, or intracellular application of GDPbetaS, a G protein inhibitor. The oscillation of membrane potential of the bursting activity was blocked after intracellular injection of 3'-deoxyadenosine, an adenylyl-cyclase inhibitor. These results suggested that the bursting firing of action potentials elicited by d-amphetamine in snail neuron may be associated with the cyclic AMP second messenger system; on the other hand, it may not be associated with the G protein and protein kinase C activity. It is concluded that amphetamine elicited potential changes in both vertebrate and invertebrate central neurons. The changes are closely related to the ionic currents and second messengers of the neurons. PMID:11034152

  13. Eliciting health care priorities in developing countries: experimental evidence from Guatemala.

    PubMed

    Font, Joan Costa; Forns, Joan Rovira; Sato, Azusa

    2016-02-01

    Although some methods for eliciting preferences to assist participatory priority setting in health care in developed countries are available, the same is not true for poor communities in developing countries whose preferences are neglected in health policy making. Existing methods grounded on self-interested, monetary valuations that may be inappropriate for developing country settings where community care is provided through 'social allocation' mechanisms. This paper proposes and examines an alternative methodology for eliciting preferences for health care programmes specifically catered for rural and less literate populations but which is still applicable in urban communities. Specifically, the method simulates a realistic collective budget allocation experiment, to be implemented in both rural and urban communities in Guatemala. We report evidence revealing that participatory budget-like experiments are incentive compatible mechanisms suitable for revealing collective preferences, while simultaneously having the advantage of involving communities in health care reform processes. PMID:25841770

  14. Danger and disease: electrocortical responses to threat- and disgust-eliciting images.

    PubMed

    Wheaton, Michael G; Holman, Alexis; Rabinak, Christine A; Macnamara, Annmarie; Proudfit, Greg Hajcak; Phan, K Luan

    2013-11-01

    Previous research suggests facilitated processing of evolutionarily significant stimuli (e.g., depictions of erotica, mutilation, threat), as reflected by augmented event-related potentials (ERPs), including the early posterior negativity (EPN) and late positive potential (LPP). Evolutionary models suggest that images that evoke disgust should be high in motivational salience, but evidence that the EPN and LPP are enhanced by disgusting images is lacking. Prior studies have employed only a small number of disgusting images that were limited in the types of content depicted. In the current study, participants viewed larger sets of disgusting, threatening, and neutral images with more varied content while electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded. Results showed that disgusting and threatening images elicited equivalent LPPs, which were both significantly increased relative to LPPs elicited by neutral images. EPN amplitudes were augmented for both disgusting and threatening relative to neutral images, though significantly more for disgust. These findings offer initial evidence that the EPN and the LPP are sensitive to disgust-eliciting pictures and that these pictures may receive processing that is at least on par with that of threatening images. Limitations of the current study and implications for future research are discussed. PMID:23938878

  15. Experts in Fast-Ball Sports Reduce Anticipation Timing Cost by Developing Inhibitory Control

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to examine the relationship between expertise in movement correction and rate of movement reprogramming within limited time periods, and to clarify the specific cognitive processes regarding superior reprogramming ability in experts. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in baseball experts (n = 7) and


  16. Mechanisms and Neural Basis of Object and Pattern Recognition: A Study with Chess Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilalic, Merim; Langner, Robert; Erb, Michael; Grodd, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and


  17. Mechanisms and Neural Basis of Object and Pattern Recognition: A Study with Chess Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilalic, Merim; Langner, Robert; Erb, Michael; Grodd, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and…

  18. Electrodermal activity analysis during affective haptic elicitation.

    PubMed

    Greco, Alberto; Valenza, Gaetano; Nardelli, Mimma; Bianchi, Matteo; Lanata, Antonio; Scilingo, Enzo Pasquale

    2015-08-01

    This paper investigates how the autonomic nervous system dynamics, quantified through the analysis of the electrodermal activity (EDA), is modulated according to affective haptic stimuli. Specifically, a haptic display able to convey caress-like stimuli is presented to 32 healthy subjects (16 female). Each stimulus is changed according to six combinations of three velocities and two forces levels of two motors stretching a strip of fabric. Subjects were also asked to score each stimulus in terms of arousal (high/low activation) and valence (pleasant/unpleasant), in agreement with the circumplex model of affect. EDA was processed using a deconvolutive method, separating tonic and phasic components. A statistical analysis was performed in order to identify significant differences in EDA features among force and velocity levels, as well as in their valence and arousal scores. Results show that the simulated caress induced by the haptic display significantly affects the EDA. In detail, the phasic component seems to be inversely related to the valence score. This finding is new and promising, since it can be used, e.g., as an additional cue for haptics design. PMID:26737605

  19. Biologically inspired robots elicit a robust fear response in zebrafish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ladu, Fabrizio; Bartolini, Tiziana; Panitz, Sarah G.; Butail, Sachit; Macrı, Simone; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2015-03-01

    We investigate the behavioral response of zebrafish to three fear-evoking stimuli. In a binary choice test, zebrafish are exposed to a live allopatric predator, a biologically-inspired robot, and a computer-animated image of the live predator. A target tracking algorithm is developed to score zebrafish behavior. Unlike computer-animated images, the robotic and live predator elicit a robust avoidance response. Importantly, the robotic stimulus elicits more consistent inter-individual responses than the live predator. Results from this effort are expected to aid in hypothesis-driven studies on zebrafish fear response, by offering a valuable approach to maximize data-throughput and minimize animal subjects.

  20. Expert systems should be more accurate than human experts - Evaluation procedures from human judgment and decisionmaking

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levi, Keith

    1989-01-01

    Two procedures for the evaluation of the performance of expert systems are illustrated: one procedure evaluates predictive accuracy; the other procedure is complementary in that it uncovers the factors that contribute to predictive accuracy. Using these procedures, it is argued that expert systems should be more accurate than human experts in two senses. One sense is that expert systems must be more accurate to be cost-effective. Previous research is reviewed and original results are presented which show that simple statistical models typically perform better than human experts for the task of combining evidence from a given set of information sources. The results also suggest the second sense in which expert systems should be more accurate than human experts. They reveal that expert systems should share factors that contribute to human accuracy, but not factors that detract from human accuracy. Thus the thesis is that one should both require and expect systems to be more accurate than humans.

  1. Caffeine in hot drinks elicits cephalic phase responses involving cardiac activity.

    PubMed

    McMullen, Michael K; Whitehouse, Julie M; Shine, Gillian; Whitton, Peter A; Towell, Anthony

    2012-09-01

    Caffeine stimulates both oropharyngeal and gut bitter taste receptors (hTAS2Rs) and so has the potential to elicit reflex autonomic responses. Coffee containing 130 mg caffeine has been reported to increase heart rate for 30 min post-ingestion. Whereas added-caffeine, in doses of 25 to 200 mg, ingested with decaffeinated coffee/tea decreases heart rate 10 to 30 min post-ingestion. This study aimed to clarify caffeine's chemosensory impact. Double-espresso coffees were compared to a placebo-control capsule in a double-blind between-measures design. Coffees tested were regular coffee (130 mg caffeine) and decaffeinated coffee with added-caffeine (0, 67 and 134 mg). Cardiovascular measures from three post-ingestion phases: 1) 0 to 5; 2) 10 to 15; and 3) 25 to 30 min; were compared to pre-ingestion measures. Participants comprised 11 women in the control group and 10 women in the test group. Decaffeinated coffee elicited no changes. Decaffeinated coffee with 67 mg caffeine: decreased dp/dt in Phase 1. Decaffeinated coffee with 134 mg caffeine: increased heart rate in Phases 1 and 2; decreased spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity in Phase 1; and increased diastolic pressure in Phases 2 and 3. Regular coffee: increased heart rate in Phases 1 and 2; decreased dp/dt in all phases; and decreased systolic pressure in Phase 1. Caffeine is the substance in regular coffee which elicits chemosensory autonomic reflex responses, which involves heart activity and the baroreflex. Compared to the caffeine in regular coffee, added-caffeine elicits somewhat different chemosensory responses including a more pronounced pressor effect and resetting of the baroreflex. Caffeine in commonly consumed amounts, as well as modulating body processes by blocking adenosine receptors, can elicit reflex autonomic responses during the ingestion of caffeinated drinks. It is plausible that caffeine stimulates hTAS2Rs, during the ingestion of coffee, eliciting cephalic phase responses. These cephalic phase responses likely result from vagal withdrawal and it is uncertain whether they enhance digestion or not. PMID:22614720

  2. Satellite operations support expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    The Satellite Operations Support Expert System is an effort to identify aspects of satellite ground support activity which could profitably be automated with artificial intelligence (AI) and to develop a feasibility demonstration for the automation of one such area. The hydrazine propulsion subsystems (HPS) of the International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) and the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUS) were used as applications domains. A demonstration fault handling system was built. The system was written in Franz Lisp and is currently hosted on a VAX 11/750-11/780 family machine. The system allows the user to select which HPS (either from ISEE or IUE) is used. Then the user chooses the fault desired for the run. The demonstration system generates telemetry corresponding to the particular fault. The completely separate fault handling module then uses this telemetry to determine what and where the fault is and how to work around it. Graphics are used to depict the structure of the HPS, and the telemetry values displayed on the screen are continually updated. The capabilities of this system and its development cycle are described.

  3. The expert explorer: a tool for hospital data visualization and adverse drug event rules validation.

    PubMed

    B?ceanu, Adrian; Atasiei, Ionu?; Chazard, Emmanuel; Leroy, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    An important part of adverse drug events (ADEs) detection is the validation of the clinical cases and the assessment of the decision rules to detect ADEs. For that purpose, a software called "Expert Explorer" has been designed by Ideea Advertising. Anonymized datasets have been extracted from hospitals into a common repository. The tool has 3 main features. (1) It can display hospital stays in a visual and comprehensive way (diagnoses, drugs, lab results, etc.) using tables and pretty charts. (2) It allows designing and executing dashboards in order to generate knowledge about ADEs. (3) It finally allows uploading decision rules obtained from data mining. Experts can then review the rules, the hospital stays that match the rules, and finally give their advice thanks to specialized forms. Then the rules can be validated, invalidated, or improved (knowledge elicitation phase). PMID:19745238

  4. 16 CFR 255.3 - Expert endorsements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert endorsements. 255.3 Section 255.3 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES CONCERNING USE OF ENDORSEMENTS AND TESTIMONIALS IN ADVERTISING § 255.3 Expert endorsements. (a) Whenever an...

  5. Expert System Detects Power-Distribution Faults

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, Jerry L.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1994-01-01

    Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) computer program is prototype expert-system program detecting faults in electrical-power-distribution system. Assists human operators in diagnosing faults and deciding what adjustments or repairs needed for immediate recovery from faults or for maintenance to correct initially nonthreatening conditions that could develop into faults. Written in Lisp.

  6. Student Revision with Peer and Expert Reviewing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cho, Kwangsu; MacArthur, Charles

    2010-01-01

    In a previous study we found that students receiving feedback from multiple peers improve their writing quality more than students receiving feedback from a single expert. The present study attempted to explain that finding by analyzing the feedback types provided by experts and peers, how that feedback was related to revisions, and how revisions


  7. Farm Parents' Attitudes Towards Farm Safety Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neufeld, Steven J.; Cinnamon, Jennifer L.

    2004-01-01

    Using both qualitative and quantitative data, this article analyzes farm parent's attitudes towards the trustworthiness, usefulness, and use of advice from farm safety experts. The article evaluates four different perspectives on trust in expert: the Validity of Knowledge perspective, the Salient Values Similarity perspective, the Diffusion of…

  8. The Selective Task Trainer: The Expert Solution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gerson, Charles W.

    1995-01-01

    Examines simulator classification and design in light of new technology, current research, and a changing focus for using flight simulators in the military, and proposes a selective task trainer that addresses the expert's performance needs. Highlights include motor skill physiology; retention; automaticity skills; the novice to expert…

  9. Expert Systems and Their Applications in LIS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vickery, Alina; Brooks, Helen

    1987-01-01

    Describes the components and capabilities of expert systems, discusses the use of such systems in library information applications, and outlines research being done in this area. A project aimed at the development of an expert system for referral services is described in detail, and implications for future research are discussed. (CLB)

  10. An expert system for restructurable control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1988-01-01

    Work in progress on an expert system which restructures and tunes control systems on-line is presented. The expert system coordinates the different methods for redesigning and implementing the control strategies due to system changes. The research is directed toward aircraft and jet engine applications. The implementation is written in LISP and is currently running on a special purpose LISP machine.

  11. Expert system for analyzing eddy current measurements

    DOEpatents

    Levy, Arthur J. (Schenectady, NY); Oppenlander, Jane E. (Scotia, NY); Brudnoy, David M. (Albany, NY); Englund, James M. (Clifton Park, NY); Loomis, Kent C. (Clifton Park, NY)

    1994-01-01

    A method and apparatus (called DODGER) analyzes eddy current data for heat exchanger tubes or any other metallic object. DODGER uses an expert system to analyze eddy current data by reasoning with uncertainty and pattern recognition. The expert system permits DODGER to analyze eddy current data intelligently, and obviate operator uncertainty by analyzing the data in a uniform and consistent manner.

  12. Farm Parents' Attitudes Towards Farm Safety Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neufeld, Steven J.; Cinnamon, Jennifer L.

    2004-01-01

    Using both qualitative and quantitative data, this article analyzes farm parent's attitudes towards the trustworthiness, usefulness, and use of advice from farm safety experts. The article evaluates four different perspectives on trust in expert: the Validity of Knowledge perspective, the Salient Values Similarity perspective, the Diffusion of


  13. Experts' Opinion: A Powerful Evaluation Tool.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nevo, David

    Experts' opinion is proposed as a valuable evaluation tool. Advantages of this method include the relative cost effectiveness when compared with other data collection methods. It is a time-saving method important in formative evaluation when a decision must be made concerning implementation of a course of action. When experts are carefully…

  14. Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Katy

    2004-01-01

    Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

  15. 16 CFR 255.3 - Expert endorsements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert endorsements. 255.3 Section 255.3 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES CONCERNING USE OF ENDORSEMENTS AND TESTIMONIALS IN ADVERTISING § 255.3 Expert endorsements. (a) Whenever an advertisement represents, directly or by implication,...

  16. Expert Systems Technology for Training Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebowitz, Jay

    1989-01-01

    Description of the use of expert systems for training applications presents three case studies of expert systems that are currently in use: (1) CESA, used for government contracting; (2) TOPSCO, for training in telecommunications; and (3) EVIDENT, for law students learning admissibility of evidence. (13 references) (LRW)

  17. The Beliefs of Two Expert EFL Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Much of the research into "expert" language learners has focused largely on their learning strategies or styles. Less attention has been paid to other expert learner characteristics, such as learner beliefs. However, the importance of learners' beliefs in guiding their behaviours and how they interpret their experiences is widely recognised. This…

  18. A prototype expert system for fishway design.

    PubMed

    Bender, M J; Katopodis, C; Simonovic, S P

    1992-12-01

    The design of structures for fish passage in rivers and streams provides an opportunity to apply expert system concepts to a design problem. Fishways contribute to the sustainable development of water resources projects by providing a path that allows fish migrations to be maintained. A prototype expert system (FDES) has been developed to recommend the most suitable fishway type for given design conditions. A recommendation is provided on the basis of fishway hydraulics, fish passage performance, and cost requirements. Fishway design demands expertise in various scientific disciplines such as hydrology, hydraulics, and fish biology. Expert system technology may be used to reduce design time requirements and to serve as a teaching aid to inexperienced engineers by organizing and accessing the cumulative knowledge of the most experienced designers. The rule-based expert system development tool, VP-Expert, supplies the backward chaining control structure for accessing the knowledge within the prototype. PMID:24227094

  19. CLIPS: An expert system building tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is an expert system building tool, which provides a complete environment for the development and delivery of rule and/or object based expert systems. CLIPS was specifically designed to provide a low cost option for developing and deploying expert system applications across a wide range of hardware platforms. The commercial potential of CLIPS is vast. Currently, CLIPS is being used by over 3,300 individuals throughout the public and private sector. Because the CLIPS source code is readily available, numerous groups have used CLIPS as a basis for their own expert system tools. To date, three commercially available tools have been derived from CLIPS. In general, the development of CLIPS has helped to improve the ability to deliver expert system technology throughout the public and private sectors for a wide range of applications and diverse computing environments.

  20. EMMA: The expert system for munition maintenance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mullins, Barry E.

    1988-01-01

    Expert Missile Maintenance Aid (EMMA) is a first attempt to enhance maintenance of the tactical munition at the field and depot level by using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The ultimate goal of EMMA is to help a novice maintenance technician isolate and diagnose electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical equipment faults to the board/chassis level more quickly and consistently than the best human expert using the best currently available automatic test equipment (ATE). To this end, EMMA augments existing ATE with an expert system that captures the knowledge of design and maintenance experts. The EMMA program is described, including the evaluation of field-level expert system prototypes, the description of several study tasks performed during EMMA, and future plans for a follow-on program. This paper will briefly address several study tasks performed during EMMA. The paper concludes with a discussion of future plans for a follow-on program and other areas of concern.