Science.gov

Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison

    SciTech Connect

    Dalton, Angela C.; Brothers, Alan J.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Whitney, Paul D.

    2010-09-21

    Research on integrative modeling has gained considerable attention in recent years and expert opinion has been increasingly recognized as an important data source and modeling contributor. However, little research has systematically compared and evaluated expert elicitation methods in terms of their ability to link to computational models that capture human behavior and social phenomena. In this paper, we describe a decision-making process we used for evaluating and selecting a task specific elicitation method within the framework of integrative computational social-behavioral modeling. From the existing literature, we identified the characteristics of problems that each candidate method is well suited to address. A small-scale expert elicitation was also conducted to evaluate the comparative strength and weaknesses of the methods against a number of consensus-based decision criteria. By developing a set of explicit method evaluation criteria and a description characterizing decision problems for the candidate methods, we seek to gain a better understanding of the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of integrating elicitation methods with computational modeling techniques. This serves an important first step toward expanding our research effort and trajectory toward greater interdisciplinary modeling research of human behavior.

  2. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... ADMINISTRATION Draft Concept for Government-Wide ``ExpertNet'' Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public... consultation, namely a government- wide software tool and process to elicit expert public participation (working title ``ExpertNet''). ExpertNet would tap the expertise of the public in a manageable...

  3. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  4. Learning from Expert Elicitation in Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, M. G.

    2009-12-01

    Since the early 1990's the author has been involved in the design and execution of six detailed expert elicitations that, among other things, have obtained subjective judgments from experts that reflect their best judgment in the form of subjective probability density functions, about the value of key climate variables, climate impacts and a technology for mitigation (Morgan and Keith, 1995; Morgan Pitelka and Shevliakova, 2001; Morgan, Adams and Keith, 2006; Zickfeld et al, 2007; Curtright, Morgan and Keith, 2008; Zickfeld, Morgan Keith and Frame, in review). This paper builds on that experience to draw insights about the design and use of expert elicitation in the assessment and analysis of climate change and its impacts. Several trends in responses will be noted. Methodological pitfalls will be discussed. Comparisons will be drawn with the consensus-based methods employed by IPCC, which appear to have produced tighter uncertainty bounds than individual elicitation. The paper will close with thoughts on the possible use of expert elicitation in future IPCC assessments. Support for this work is from the Climate Decision Making Center through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation (SES-0345798) and Carnegie Mellon University. References: M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts," Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), 468A-476A, October 1995. M. Granger Morgan, Louis F. Pitelka and Elena Shevliakova, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems," Climatic Change, 49, 279-307, 2001. M. Granger Morgan, Peter Adams, and David W. Keith, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing," Climatic Change, 75, 195-214, 2006. Kirsten Zickfeld, Anders Levermann, Till Kuhlbrodt. Stefan Rahmstorf, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Judgements on the Response on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Climate Change," Climatic Change, 82, 235-265, 2007. Aimee Curtright, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Assessment of Future Photovoltaic Technology, " Environmental Science & Technology, 42(24), 2008. Kirsten Zickfeld, M. Granger Morgan , David Frame, David W. Keith, "Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing," in review at PNAS.

  5. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

    SciTech Connect

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R. )

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel.

  6. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  7. Eliciting and using expert knowledge in metrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Hagan, Anthony

    2014-08-01

    The expression of uncertainty has hitherto been seen as an add-onfirst an estimate is obtained and then uncertainty in that estimate is evaluated. We argue that quantification of uncertainty should be an intrinsic part of measurement and that the measurement result should be a probability distribution for the measurand. Full quantification of uncertainties in measurement, recognizing and quantifying all sources of uncertainty, is rarely simple. Many potential sources of uncertainty can effectively only be quantified by the application of expert judgement. Scepticism about the validity or reliability of expert judgement has meant that these sources of uncertainty have often been overlooked, ignored or treated in a qualitative, narrative way. But the consequence of this is that reported expressions of uncertainty regularly understate the true degree of uncertainty in measurements. This article first discusses the concept of quantifying uncertainty in measurement, and then considers some of the areas where expert judgement is needed in order to quantify fully the uncertainties in measurement. The remainder of the article is devoted to describing methodology for eliciting expert knowledge.

  8. Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

    PubMed

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C; Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty. PMID:26610972

  9. Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Gosling, John Paul

    2013-02-01

    The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts' knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.

  10. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert judgment has led to an improved acceptance of expert judgment because of the rigor and transparency of the results.

  11. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  12. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  13. Some properties of probability inversion algorithms to elicit expert opinion.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    Probability inversion methods have been developed to infer underlying expert utility functions from rankings that experts offer of subsets of scenarios. The method assumes that the expert ranking reflects an underlying utility, which can be modelled as a function of predictive covariates. This is potentially useful as a method for the extraction of expert opinions for prediction in new scenarios. Two particular algorithms are considered here, the IPF algorithm and the PURE algorithm. The former always converges for consistent sets of rankings and finds a solution which minimizes the mutual information of the estimated utilities and an initial random sample of proposed utilities drawn in the algorithm. In this poster I report some empirical studies on the probability inversion procedure, investigating the effects of the size of the expert panel, the consistency and quality of the expert panel and the validity of the predictive covariates. These results have practical implications for the design of elicitation by probability inversion methods.

  14. Use of expert judgment elicitation to estimate seismic vulnerability of selected building types

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.S.; Aspinall, W.; Perkins, D.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.A.

    2012-01-01

    Pooling engineering input on earthquake building vulnerability through an expert judgment elicitation process requires careful deliberation. This article provides an overview of expert judgment procedures including the Delphi approach and the Cooke performance-based method to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a building category.

  15. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ``specialists``), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel.

  16. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite some known criticism on its validity, formal expert elicitation can support environmental health research in various ways. Its main purpose is to provide a temporary summary of the limited available knowledge, which can serve as a provisional basis for policy until further research has been carried out. PMID:20420657

  17. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of elicitation methodology and the implications of our results for further work at the BGS to quantify uncertainty in 2d and 3d products. In particular we will consider the impacts of surveyor 'experience' in how the elicitation process works.

  18. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of elicitation is to extract this model in a useable, quantitative, form by a robust and transparent procedure. At BGS expert elicitation is being used to evaluate the uncertainty of mapped boundaries in different common mapping scenarios, with a view to building a 'collective' understanding of the challenges each scenario presents. For example, a 'sharp contact (at surface) between highly contrasting sedimentary rocks' represents one level of survey challenge that should be accurately met by all surveyors, even novices. In contrast, a 'transitional boundary defined by localised facies-variation' may require much more experience to resolve (without recourse to significantly more sampling). We will describe the initial phase of this exercise in which uncertainty models were elicited for mapped boundaries in six contrasting scenarios. Each scenario was presented to a panel of experts with varied expertise and career history. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model, in a sixth case experts with different experience took different views of the nature of the mapping problem. We will discuss our experience of the use of elicitation methodology and the implications of our results for further work at the BGS to quantify uncertainty in map products. In particular we will consider the value of elicitation as a means to capture the expertise of individuals as they retire, and as the composition of the organization's staff changes in response to the management and policy decisions.

  19. Classification of Listeria monocytogenes persistence in retail delicatessen environments using expert elicitation and machine learning.

    PubMed

    Vangay, P; Steingrimsson, J; Wiedmann, M; Stasiewicz, M J

    2014-10-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that persistence of Listeria monocytogenes in food processing plants has been the underlying cause of a number of human listeriosis outbreaks. This study extracts criteria used by food safety experts in determining bacterial persistence in the environment, using retail delicatessen operations as a model. Using the Delphi method, we conducted an expert elicitation with 10 food safety experts from academia, industry, and government to classify L. monocytogenes persistence based on environmental sampling results collected over six months for 30 retail delicatessen stores. The results were modeled using variations of random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, and linear regression; variable importance values of random forest and support vector machine models were consolidated to rank important variables in the experts' classifications. The duration of subtype isolation ranked most important across all expert categories. Sampling site category also ranked high in importance and validation errors doubled when this covariate was removed. Support vector machine and random forest models successfully classified the data with average validation errors of 3.1% and 2.2% (n = 144), respectively. Our findings indicate that (i) the frequency of isolations over time and sampling site information are critical factors for experts determining subtype persistence, (ii) food safety experts from different sectors may not use the same criteria in determining persistence, and (iii) machine learning models have potential for future use in environmental surveillance and risk management programs. Future work is necessary to validate the accuracy of expert and machine classification against biological measurement of L. monocytogenes persistence. PMID:24888445

  20. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

  1. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  2. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods. PMID:26610964

  3. Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

    SciTech Connect

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

    1996-11-01

    Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE`s license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE`s experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC`s geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs.

  4. EXPERT ELICITATION OF ACROSS-TECHNOLOGY CORRELATIONS FOR REACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

    SciTech Connect

    Brent Dixon; Various

    2014-06-01

    Calculations of the uncertainty in the Levelized Cost at Equilibrium (LCAE) of generating nuclear electricity typically assume that the costs of the system component, notably reactors, are uncorrelated. Partial cancellation of independent errors thus gives rise to unrealistically small cost uncertainties for fuel cycles that incorporate multiple reactor technologies. This summary describes an expert elicitation of correlations between overnight reactor construction costs. It also defines a method for combining the elicitations into a single, consistent correlation matrix suitable for use in Monte Carlo LCAE calculations. Both the elicitation and uncertainty propagation methods are demonstrated through a pilot study where cost correlations between eight reactor technologies were elicited from experts in the US DOE Fuel Cycle Research

  5. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote elicitation of multiple, internationally-dispersed panels. PMID:26930595

  6. Signal Processing Expert Code (SPEC)

    SciTech Connect

    Ames, H.S.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe a prototype expert system called SPEC which was developed to demonstrate the utility of providing an intelligent interface for users of SIG, a general purpose signal processing code. The expert system is written in NIL, runs on a VAX 11/750 and consists of a backward chaining inference engine and an English-like parser. The inference engine uses knowledge encoded as rules about the formats of SIG commands and about how to perform frequency analyses using SIG. The system demonstrated that expert system can be used to control existing codes.

  7. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  8. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  9. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  10. Elicitation of Expert Prior Opinion: Application to the MYPAN Trial in Childhood Polyarteritis Nodosa

    PubMed Central

    Hampson, Lisa V.; Whitehead, John; Eleftheriou, Despina; Tudur-Smith, Catrin; Jones, Rachel; Jayne, David; Hickey, Helen; Beresford, Michael W.; Bracaglia, Claudia; Caldas, Afonso; Cimaz, Rolando; Dehoorne, Joke; Dolezalova, Pavla; Friswell, Mark; Jelusic, Marija; Marks, Stephen D.; Martin, Neil; McMahon, Anne-Marie; Peitz, Joachim; van Royen-Kerkhof, Annet; Soylemezoglu, Oguz; Brogan, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa). Methods A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis. Results A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available. Conclusions We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases. PMID:25822991

  11. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  12. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  13. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  14. Evaluation of a structured expert elicitation estimating the proportion of illness acquired by foodborne transmission for nine enteric pathogens in Australia.

    PubMed

    Vally, H; Glass, K; Ford, L; Hall, G; Kirk, M D; Shadbolt, C; Veitch, M G K; Fullerton, K E; Musto, J; Becker, N

    2016-04-01

    Estimates of the proportion of illness transmitted by food for different enteric pathogens are essential for foodborne burden-of-disease studies. Owing to insufficient scientific data, a formal synthesis of expert opinion, an expert elicitation, is commonly used to produce such estimates. Eleven experts participated in an elicitation to estimate the proportion of illnesses due to food in Australia for nine pathogens over three rounds: first, based on their own knowledge alone; second, after being provided with systematic reviews of the literature and Australian data; and finally, at a workshop where experts reflected on the evidence. Estimates changed significantly across the three rounds (P = 0·002) as measured by analysis of variance. Following the workshop in round 3, estimates showed smoother distributions with significantly less variation for several pathogens. When estimates were combined to provide combined distributions for each pathogen, the width of these combined distributions reflected experts' perceptions of the availability of evidence, with narrower intervals for pathogens for which evidence was judged to be strongest. Our findings show that the choice of expert elicitation process can significantly influence final estimates. Our structured process - and the workshop in particular - produced robust estimates and distributions appropriate for inclusion in burden-of-disease studies. PMID:26455517

  15. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-08-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community.

  16. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  17. An Expert Elicitation Based Study of the Proliferation Resistance of a Suite of Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Zentner, Michael D.; Therios, Ike; Bari, Robert A.; Cheng, Lap; Yue, Meng; Wigeland, Roald; Hassberger, Jim; Boyer, Brian; Pilat, Joseph

    2010-08-11

    In 2008, a multi-laboratory research team completed a study evaluating the proliferation resistance (PR) characteristics of a diverse suite of four advanced nuclear reactor designs. The systems evaluated included: • a light water reactor (a pressurized-water reactor), • a heavy water reactor, • a high temperature gas reactor (with a prismatic-block reactor core), • a sodium-cooled fast reactor. The team used an expert elicitation assessment approach based on the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) methodology. The team evaluated three general types of proliferation threats: 1) concealed diversion of material, 2) concealed misuse of the reactor to produce material, and 3) breakout. The evaluations took into account the intrinsic PR characteristics of each reactor and the extrinsic PR characteristics provided by generic safeguards the team considered appropriate for each reactor, based on the team’s experience and available conceptual design information.

  18. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. PMID:16506972

  19. Expert Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Catherine Q.; Prajna, N. Venkatesh; Krishnan, Tiruvengada; Mascarenhas, Jeena; Rajaraman, Revathi; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Raghavan, Anita; O'Brien, Kieran S.; Ray, Kathryn J.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Porco, Travis C.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Lietman, Thomas M.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I (MUTT I) using expert opinion as a prior belief. Methods. MUTT I was a randomized clinical trial comparing topical natamycin or voriconazole for treating filamentous fungal keratitis. A questionnaire elicited expert opinion on the best treatment of fungal keratitis before MUTT I results were available. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the questionnaire data as a prior belief and the MUTT I primary outcome (3-month visual acuity) by frequentist analysis as a likelihood. Results. Corneal experts had a 41.1% prior belief that natamycin improved 3-month visual acuity compared with voriconazole. The Bayesian analysis found a 98.4% belief for natamycin treatment compared with voriconazole treatment for filamentous cases as a group (mean improvement 1.1 Snellen lines, 95% credible interval 0.1–2.1). The Bayesian analysis estimated a smaller treatment effect than the MUTT I frequentist analysis result of 1.8-line improvement with natamycin versus voriconazole (95% confidence interval 0.5–3.0, P = 0.006). For Fusarium cases, the posterior demonstrated a 99.7% belief for natamycin treatment, whereas non-Fusarium cases had a 57.3% belief. Conclusions. The Bayesian analysis suggests that natamycin is superior to voriconazole when filamentous cases are analyzed as a group. Subgroup analysis of Fusarium cases found improvement with natamycin compared with voriconazole, whereas there was almost no difference between treatments for non-Fusarium cases. These results were consistent with, though smaller in effect size than, the MUTT I primary outcome by frequentist analysis. The accordance between analyses further validates the trial results. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00996736.) PMID:23702779

  20. We’re only in it for the knowledge? A problem solving turn in environment and health expert elicitation

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The FP6 EU HENVINET project aimed at synthesizing the scientific information available on a number of topics of high relevance to policy makers in environment and health. The goal of the current paper is to reflect on the methodology that was used in the project, in view of exploring the usefulness of this and similar methodologies to the policy process. The topics investigated included health impacts of the brominated flame retardants decabrominated diphenylether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), phthalates highlighting di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP), the pesticide chlorpyrifos (CPF), nanoparticles, the impacts of climate change on asthma and other respiratory disorders, and the influence of environment health stressors on cancer induction. Methods Initially the focus was on identifying knowledge gaps in the state of the art in scientific knowledge. Literature reviews covered all elements that compose the causal chain of the different environmental health issues from emissions to exposures, to effects and to health impacts. Through expert elicitation, knowledge gaps were highlighted by assessing expert confidence using calibrated confidence scales. During this work a complementary focus to that on knowledge gaps was developed through interdisciplinary reflections. By extending the scope of the endeavour from only a scientific perspective, to also include the more problem solving oriented policy perspective, the question of which kind of policy action experts consider justifiable was addressed. This was addressed by means of a questionnaire. In an expert workshop the results of both questionnaires were discussed as a basis for policy briefs. Results The expert elicitation, the application of the calibrated confidence levels and the problem solving approach were all experienced as being quite challenging for the experts involved, as these approaches did not easily relate to mainstream environment and health scientific practices. Even so, most experts were quite positive about it. In particular, the opportunity to widen one’s own horizon and to interactively exchange knowledge and debate with a diversity of experts seemed to be well appreciated in this approach. Different parts of the approach also helped in focussing on specific relevant aspects of scientific knowledge, and as such can be considered of reflective value. Conclusions The approach developed by HENVINET was part of a practice of learning by doing and of interdisciplinary cooperation and negotiation. Ambitions were challenged by unforeseen complexities and difference of opinion and as no Holy Grail approach was at hand to copy or follow, it was quite an interesting but also complicated endeavour. Perfection, if this could be defined, seemed out of reach all the time. Nevertheless, many involved were quite positive about it. It seems that many felt that it fitted some important needs in current science when addressing the needs of policy making on such important issues, without anyone really having a clue on how to actually do this. Challenging questions remain on the quality of such approach and its product. Practice tells us that there probably is no best method and that the best we can do is dependent on contextual negotiation and learning from experiences that we think are relevant. PMID:22759503

  1. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops.

    PubMed

    Krayer von Krauss, Martin P; Casman, Elizabeth A; Small, Mitchell J

    2004-12-01

    One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems. PMID:15660608

  2. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

  3. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This study is part of the FuturAgua project funded by the Belmont Freshwater Security call. The expert opinions on expected changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern are being used to inform regional efforts to build drought resilience and to create and compare alternative water management strategies with the region's stakeholders.

  4. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  5. Policy relevant results from an expert elicitation on the health risks of phthalates

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The EU 6th Framework Program (FP)-funded Health and Environment Network (HENVINET) aimed to support informed policy making by facilitating the availability of relevant knowledge on different environmental health issues. An approach was developed by which scientific agreement, disagreement, and knowledge gaps could be efficiently identified, and expert advice prepared in a way that is usable for policy makers. There were two aims of the project: 1) to apply the tool to a relevant issue; the potential health impacts of the widely used plasticizers, phthalates, and 2) to evaluate the method and the tool by asking both scientific experts and the target audience, namely policy makers and stakeholders, for their opinions. Methods The tool consisted of an expert consultation in several steps on the issue of phthalates in environmental health. A diagram depicting the cause-effect chain, from the production and use of phthalates to potential health impacts, was prepared based on existing reviews. This was used as a basis for an online questionnaire, through which experts in the field were consulted. The results of this first round of consultation laid the foundation for a new questionnaire answered by an expert panel that, subsequently, also discussed approaches and results in a workshop. One major task of the expert panel was to pinpoint priorities from the cause-effect chain according to their impact on the extent of potential health risks and their relevance for reducing uncertainty. The results were condensed into a policy brief that was sent to policy makers and stakeholders for their evaluation. Results The experts agreed about the substantial knowledge gaps within the field of phthalates. The top three priorities for further research and policy action were: 1) intrauterine exposure, 2) reproductive toxicology, and 3) exposure from medical devices. Although not all relevant information from the cause-effect chain is known for phthalates, most experts thought that there are enough indications to justify a precautionary approach and to restrict their general use. Although some of the experts expressed some scepticism about such a tool, most felt that important issues were highlighted. Conclusions The approach used was an efficient way at summarising priority knowledge gaps as a starting point for health risk assessment of compounds, based on their relevance for the risk assessment outcome. We conclude that this approach is useful for supporting policy makers with state-of-the-art scientific knowledge weighed by experts. The method can assist future evidence-based policy making. PMID:22759506

  6. Approach, methods and results of an individual elicitation for the volcanism expert judgment panel

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, B.M.

    1996-06-01

    Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of future magnetic disruption of the Yucca Mountain site was completed as a participating member of the volcanism export judgment panel conducted by Geomatrix Consultants for the Department of Energy. The purpose of this summary is to describe the data assumptions, methods, and results of the elicitation and to contrast this assessment with past volcanism studies conducted for the Yucca Mountain Project.

  7. Expert Robots For Automated Packaging And Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slutzky, G. D.; Hall, E. L.; Shell, R. L.

    1989-02-01

    A variety of problems in automated packaging and processing seem ready for expert robotic solutions. Such problems as automated palletizing, bin-picking, automated stoilw and retrieval, automated kitting of parts for assembly, and automated warehousing are currently being considered. The use of expert robots which consist of specialized computer programs, manipulators and integrated sensors has been demonstrated with robot Chedkers, peg games, etc. Actual solutions for automated palletizing, pit-carb basket loading, etc. have also been developed for industrial applications at our Center. The generic concepts arising from this research will be described, unsolved problems discussed, and some important tools demonstrated. The significance of this work lies in its broad application to a host of generic industrial problems which can improve quality, reduce waste, are eliminate human injuries.

  8. Timing and magnitude of CO2 and CH4 release from the permafrost region: an expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Schuur, E. A.; Jones, J.; Permafrost Carbon RCN Group

    2011-12-01

    Permafrost contains more than twice as much carbon as currently exists in the atmosphere. As temperature increases and permafrost is lost, a portion of this carbon pool will be released as CO2 and CH4, however, the rate and magnitude of this release is highly uncertain. In June of 2011 we administered an expert elicitation survey at the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network Synthesis Workshop in Seattle. The 43 permafrost, carbon, and climate experts were asked to estimate the magnitude of permafrost degradation and subsequent CO2 and CH4 release in response to four arctic and boreal warming scenarios, adapted from the most recent IPCC radiative forcing scenarios. We asked respondents to quantitatively estimate permafrost loss and net change in permafrost-region soil carbon, as well as to provide a qualitative self-rating of their confidence and relevant expertise concerning each question. Because direct measurements of arctic carbon fluxes are scarce and the quantity and distribution of soil carbon in the arctic is only coarsely characterized, expert elicitation methods allowed us to integrate results from both field and modeling research efforts, and to measure consensus and quantify uncertainty concerning the activation of the pan-arctic permafrost carbon pool. Results indicate rapid permafrost loss and substantial carbon release by the end of the century for even modest warming scenarios-between 56 and 193 Pg of cumulative carbon release by 2100 depending on the magnitude of warming. Under the current warming trajectory, the permafrost region will soon become one of the largest ecosystem sources of green house gases.

  9. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from permafrost region soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert elicitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Jones, J.; Schuur, E. A.; Bowden, W. B.; Chapin, F. S., III; Epstein, H. E.; Flannigan, M.; Harms, T.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Mack, M. C.; Natali, S.; Rocha, A. V.; Tank, S. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Vonk, J.; Wickland, K.

    2013-12-01

    As the permafrost region warms, up to 288 Pg carbon (CO2 equivalent) may be released from soil by the end of the century, and up to 616 Pg by 2300. This soil carbon can be released to the atmosphere directly via mineralization or wildfire, or enter aquatic ecosystems as dissolved or particulate organic or inorganic carbon. Some models predict an increase in Arctic and boreal living biomass in response to extended growing season, enhanced nutrient cycling, and CO2 fertilization, but we have a poor understanding of how the production of new biomass will compare with loss of carbon from permafrost thaw. We administered surveys to permafrost region experts to assess current understanding of the magnitude and timing of biomass accumulation, hydrologic carbon flux, and wildfire carbon losses. Surveys addressed three time periods (present to 2040, 2100, and 2300) and four warming scenarios based on IPCC representative concentration pathways. Estimates of change in biomass and fire losses were provided individually for the boreal forest and arctic tundra. Experts estimated changes in carbon delivery to freshwater ecosystems as well as delivery to the ocean, including carbon release due to coastal erosion, fluxes infrequently captured in high-latitude models. Initial expert estimates indicated that while tundra biomass would increase substantially, total permafrost region biomass would decrease by the end of the century due to boreal forest drying and browning, followed by a modest increase by 2300 due to vegetation community shifts. Changes in aquatic systems could release an additional 2.7 Pg carbon by 2100 and 7.3 Pg by 2300. Modified wildfire regime could cause the release of an additional 13.6 Pg carbon by 2100 and 51.7 Pg by 2300. Current expert understanding therefore suggests that carbon gains in high-latitude biomass will be orders of magnitude smaller than carbon loss from permafrost soils and that hydrologic and wildfire pathways of carbon loss will likely accelerate carbon mobilization from permafrost region ecosystems.

  10. The NASA personnel security processing expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Silberberg, D.; Thomas, R.

    1996-12-31

    The NASA Personnel Security Processing Expert System is a tool that automatically determines the appropriate personnel background investigation required for a civil servant or contractor occupying a position of national security or public trust. It also instructs the personnel security processing staff to perform special checks based on a specific position. The system is implemented using a rule-based expert system and a World Wide Web interface. The system design separates the user interface, knowledge base and control structure to simplify system evolution. When one subsystem is modified, the others are impacted minimally. This system provides many benefits to the NASA Personnel Security Program. First, it frees the agency personnel security specialist from trouble-shooting and correcting all investigative problems. It also provides a learning tool for security processing staff at each installation. The system ensures that each installation security office is in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and policies. Finally, eliminating overlapping, inappropriate and duplicative efforts to process employees saves many resources. The system was deployed less than a year ago. To date, it saved $1.2 million of the $1.5 million agency-wide personnel security budget.

  11. Policy relevant Results from an Expert Elicitation on the Human Health Risks of Decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) and Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Aim Apply a recently developed expert elicitation procedure to evaluate the state of the current knowledge of the two brominated flame retardants (BFRs) most commonly used today; decabromo-diphenyl ether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and their potential impact on human health in order to support policy considerations. This expert elicitation was organized by the HENVINET (Health and Environment Network) Consortium. Method The HENVINET expert elicitation procedure that was used in the evaluations of decaBDE and HBCD is a rapid assessment tool aimed at highlighting areas of agreement and areas of disagreement on knowledge-related key issues for environment and health policy decision making. Results The outcome of the expert consultation on BFRs was concrete expert advice for policy makers with specific priorities for further action made clear for both stakeholders and policy makers. The experts were not in agreement whether or not the knowledge currently available on decaBDE or HBCD is sufficient to justify policy actions, but most experts considered that enough data already exists to support a ban or restriction on the use of these compounds. All experts agreed on the necessity of more research on the compounds. Priority issues for further research were, among others: • more studies on the extent of human exposure to the compounds. • more studies on the fate and concentration in the human body of the compounds. PMID:22759507

  12. ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

    PubMed

    van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

    2012-09-01

    Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time. PMID:22664671

  13. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  14. The application of expert systems to process control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Bevan P. F.

    1991-01-01

    An expert system is a computer software technology developed from artificial intelligence research. It may be used for intelligent manufacturing process control and, when properly designed, has the capability to imitate human behavior. An expert system's value is to assist a human in executing realtime process control decisions in a complex system. This article provides an introduction to the concepts of intelligent process control and includes a process control scenario applying an expert system as well as statistical and optimization technologies. A simple guide of how to get started and a description of expert system tools are also presented.

  15. EXPERT ELICITATION WHITE PAPER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA is frequently called upon to make decisions on complex environmental issues, and to make these decisions, analyses are required from a broad range of disciplines. In all of these analyses, uncertainty and variability exist in estimates of the values of key parameters and...

  16. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  17. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  18. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  19. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

    1987-01-01

    The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

  20. Expert elicitation as a means to attribute 28 enteric pathogens to foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, and person-to-person transmission routes in Canada.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-04-01

    Enteric illness contributes to a significant burden of illness in Canada and globally. Understanding its sources is a critical step in identifying and preventing health risks. Expert elicitation is a powerful tool, used previously, to obtain information about enteric illness source attribution where information is difficult or expensive to obtain. Thirty-one experts estimated transmission of 28 pathogens via major transmission routes (foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, person-to-person, and other) at the point of consumption. The elicitation consisted of a (snowball) recruitment phase; administration of a pre-survey to collect background information, an introductory webinar, an elicitation survey, a 1-day discussion, survey readministration, and a feedback exercise, and surveys were administered online. Experts were prompted to quantify changes in contamination at the point of entry into the kitchen versus point of consumption. Estimates were combined via triangular probability distributions, and medians and 90% credible-interval estimates were produced. Transmission was attributed primarily to food for Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Trichinella spp., all three Vibrio spp. categories explored, and Yersinia enterocolitica. Multisource pathogens (e.g., transmitted commonly through both water and food) such as Campylobacter spp., four Escherichia coli categories, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were also estimated as mostly foodborne. Water was the primary pathway for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp., and person-to-person transmission dominated for six enteric viruses and Shigella spp. Consideration of the point of attribution highlighted the importance of food handling and cross-contamination in the transmission pathway. This study provides source attribution estimates of enteric illness for Canada, considering all possible transmission routes. Further research is necessary to improve our understanding of poorly characterized pathogens such as sapovirus and E. coli subgroups in Canada. PMID:25835810

  1. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions, depending on their experience in the region. The size of the 19 hazard-specific panels ranged from 6 to 15 persons with several experts serving on more than one panel. Pathogens with animal reservoirs (e.g. non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Toxoplasma gondii) were in general assessed by the experts to have a higher proportion of illnesses attributable to food than pathogens with mainly a human reservoir, where human-to-human transmission (e.g. Shigella spp. and Norovirus) or waterborne transmission (e.g. Salmonella Typhi and Vibrio cholerae) were judged to dominate. For many pathogens, the foodborne route was assessed relatively more important in developed subregions than in developing subregions. The main exposure routes for lead varied across subregions, with the foodborne route being assessed most important only in two subregions of the European region. Conclusions For the first time, we present worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific diseases attributable to food and other major transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives. PMID:26784029

  2. Process Diagnosis Expert System Using First Principles and Functional Component

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-11-24

    PRODIAG is an expert system that performs online diagnosis of faulty components in thermal hydraulic processes. Given measurements of temperatures, pressure, flows, and liquid levels, PRODIAG identifies the possible faulty component candidates at the process level. It is a stand alone code, but can be used in conjunction with a component level program to distinguish among the possible faulty component candidates.

  3. A Case Study of Requirements Elicitation Process with Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakatani, Takako; Hori, Shouzo; Ubayashi, Naoyasu; Katamine, Keiichi; Hashimoto, Masaaki

    Requirements changes sometimes cause a project to fail. A lot of projects now follow incremental development processes so that new requirements and requirements changes can be incorporated as soon as possible. These processes are called integrated requirements processes, which function to integrate requirements processes with other developmental processes. We have quantitatively and qualitatively investigated the requirements processes of a specific project from beginning to end. Our focus is to clarify the types of necessary requirements based on the components contained within a certain portion of the software architecture. Further, each type reveals its typical requirements processes through its own rationale. This case study is a system to manage the orders and services of a restaurant. In this paper, we introduce the case and categorize its requirements processes based on the components of the system and the qualitative characteristics of ISO-9126. We could identify seven categories of the typical requirements process to be managed and/or controlled. Each category reveals its typical requirements processes and their characteristics. The case study is our first step of practical integrated requirements engineering.

  4. A generic expert system for materials processing in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Kristinn; Cook, George E.; Strauss, Alvin M.

    1988-01-01

    A generic expert system is described for inspecting materials processed in space (MPS). The system may be applied, with the appropriate knowledge base, to any of the nondestructive testing methods (NDT) which are appropriate to MPS. Regardless of the method being used, the inspection process consists of three tasks: (1) signal or image processing of the NDT output and feature extraction, (2) interpretation of features in terms of MPS discontinuities, and (3) evaluation of the quality of the MPS based upon industry standards. In contrast to rule based systems, this system represents its knowledge as multidimensional vectors and appropriate functions on them. Currently, the expert system accepts manual input of observed features. Once the expert system has been tested and compared to human expert inspectors, a vision front-end will be developed to complete automation of the expert MPS inspection system, based on visual discontuities. Then the data base will be extended to include a variety of other NDT methods. In addition to functional performance, ease of use was established through menu window driven input as well as flexibility in building, using and modifying data bases for different applications.

  5. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  6. Dynamic array processing for computationally intensive expert systems in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Athavale, N. N.; Ragade, R. K.; Fenske, T. E.; Cassaro, M. A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper puts forth an architecture for implementing a loop for advanced data structure of arrays in CLIPS. An attempt is made to use multi-field variables in such an architecture to process a set of data during the decision making cycle. Also, current limitations on the expert system shells are discussed in brief in this paper. The resulting architecture is designed to circumvent the current limitations set by the expert system shell and also by the operating environment. Such advanced data structures are needed for tightly coupling symbolic and numeric computation modules.

  7. Toward the integration of expert knowledge and instrumental data to control food processes: application to Camembert-type cheese ripening.

    PubMed

    Sicard, M; Perrot, N; Leclercq-Perlat, M-N; Baudrit, C; Corrieu, G

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the cheese ripening process remains a challenge because of its complexity. We still lack the knowledge necessary to understand the interactions that take place at different levels of scale during the process. However, information may be gathered from expert knowledge. Combining this expertise with knowledge extracted from experimental databases may allow a better understanding of the entire ripening process. The aim of this study was to elicit expert knowledge and to check its validity to assess the evolution of organoleptic quality during a dynamic food process: Camembert cheese ripening. Experiments on a pilot scale were carried out at different temperatures and relative humidities to obtain contrasting ripening kinetics. During these experiments, macroscopic evolution was evaluated from an expert's point of view and instrumental measurements were carried out to simultaneously monitor microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical kinetics. A correlation of 76% was established between the microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data and the sensory phases measured according to expert knowledge, highlighting the validity of the experts' measurements. In the future, it is hoped that this expert knowledge may be integrated into food process models to build better decision-aid systems that will make it possible to preserve organoleptic qualities by linking them to other phenomena at the microscopic level. PMID:21183011

  8. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  9. The impact of new data on an expert elicitation of the probability of volcanic intersection of the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, F. V.; Jenni, K. E.; Neiman, T.; Coppersmith, K.

    2008-12-01

    An expert elicitation completed in 1996 estimated the frequency of intersection by a dike of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. That assessment resulted in a mean annual frequency of intersection of 1.7e -8, or about 1 chance in 60 million per year. The expert panel primarily considered the past 5 million years of volcanic history when estimating the probability of intersection, and included in their assessment the possibility that at least a few volcanic centers were buried in alluvial basins near Yucca Mountain. The results of a regional aeromagnetic survey completed in 1999 suggested the potential for a higher number of buried volcanic centers than previously considered in the 1996 elicitation. Therefore, a new expert elicitation was convened in 2004 with the primary purpose of assessing the impact of buried volcanic centers on probability estimates. A major data-gathering effort completed in 2006 provided high-resolution aeromagnetic, drilling, and geochronology results that provided information on the number, location and age of buried basaltic centers near Yucca Mountain. Most buried basalt was determined to be of Miocene age. The youngest group of buried volcanic centers, 20-25 km south of Yucca Mountain, has an age of about 3.9 Ma. These results indicate that post-Miocene basaltic volcanism only occurred to the south and west of Yucca Mountain and not to the east, an important constraint in models that forecast the potential location of future volcanism. Other new data considered included the characteristics of dike swarms based on analog volcanoes, variations in crustal extension across the region, mantle tomography, and differences in calculated lithostatic pressure between basins and ranges. The new distribution for the annual frequency of intersection (5th and 95th percentiles of ~6e -10 and 1e -7) overlaps the 1996 distribution but is broader with more weight at both higher and lower values. This results in a slightly higher mean value and a slightly lower median value. The results are consistent with consideration of a broader range of conceptual models for the spatial and temporal behavior of volcanism, as well as more complex models of the geometry of volcanic events, all influenced in part by availability of new data.

  10. Prospective Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Thought Processes on a Model Eliciting Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eraslan, Ali

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical model and modeling are one of the topics that have been intensively discussed in recent years. The purpose of this study is to examine prospective elementary mathematics teachers' thought processes on a model eliciting activity and reveal difficulties or blockages in the processes. The study includes forty-five seniors taking the…

  11. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  12. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  13. Differential Elicitation of Two Processing Proteases Controls the Processing Pattern of the Trypsin Proteinase Inhibitor Precursor in Nicotiana attenuata1

    PubMed Central

    Horn, Martin; Patankar, Aparna G.; Zavala, Jorge A.; Wu, Jianqiang; Dolečková-Marešová, Lucie; Vůjtěchová, Milana; Mareš, Michael; Baldwin, Ian T.

    2005-01-01

    Trypsin proteinase inhibitors (TPIs) of Nicotiana attenuata are major antiherbivore defenses that increase dramatically in leaves after attack or methyl jasmonate (MeJA) elicitation. To understand the elicitation process, we characterized the proteolytic fragmentation and release of TPIs from a multidomain precursor by proteases in MeJA-elicited and unelicited plants. A set of approximately 6-kD TPI peptides was purified from leaves, and their posttranslational modifications were characterized. In MeJA-elicited plants, the diversity of TPI structures was greater than the precursor gene predicted. This elicited structural heterogeneity resulted from differential fragmentation of the linker peptide (LP) that separates the seven-domain TPI functional domains. Using an in vitro fluorescence resonance energy transfer assay and synthetic substrates derived from the LP sequence, we characterized proteases involved in both the processing of the TPI precursor and its vacuolar targeting sequence. Although both a vacuolar processing enzyme and a subtilisin-like protease were found to participate in a two-step processing of LP, only the activity of the subtilisin-like protease was significantly increased by MeJA elicitation. We propose that MeJA elicitation increases TPI precursor production and saturates the proteolytic machinery, changing the processing pattern of TPIs. To test this hypothesis, we elicited a TPI-deficient N. attenuata genotype that had been transformed with a functional NaTPI gene under control of a constitutive promoter and characterized the resulting TPIs. We found no alterations in the processing pattern predicted from the sequence: a result consistent with the saturation hypothesis. PMID:16113221

  14. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  15. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

  16. Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

    A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

  17. Differential ERP Signatures Elicited by Semantic and Syntactic Processing in Scenes

    PubMed Central

    Võ, Melissa L.-H.; Wolfe, Jeremy M.

    2016-01-01

    In sentence processing, semantic and syntactic violations elicit differential brain responses in ERP recordings: An N400 signals semantic violations, while a P600 marks inconsistent syntactic structure. Does the brain register similar distinctions in scene perception? Participants viewed “semantic inconsistencies” created by presenting objects that were incongruent with a scene's meaning and “syntactic inconsistencies” in which an object violated structural rules. We found a clear dissociation between semantic and syntactic processing: Semantic inconsistencies produced negative deflections in the N300/N400 time window, while syntactic inconsistencies elicited a late positivity resembling the P600 found for syntax manipulations in sentence processing. Interestingly, extreme syntax violations such as a floating toast, showed an initial increase in attentional deployment, but failed to produce a P600 effect. We therefore conclude that different neural populations are active during semantic and syntactic processing in scenes and that impossible object placements may be processed categorically different from syntactically inconsistent placements. PMID:23842954

  18. An expert system for processing uncorrelated satellite tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecker, Michael A.

    1992-12-01

    Through an array of ground based radar sights and optical cameras, the United States military tracks objects in near and far Earth orbit. The sensors provide epoch and ephemeris information that is used to update a database of known objects. While a majority of the sensor observations are matched to their corresponding satellites, a small percentage are beyond the capabilities of current software and cannot be correlated. These uncorrelated targets, UCT's, must be manually fitted by orbital analysts in a labor intensive process. As an alternative to this human intervention, the use of artificial intelligence techniques to augment the present computer code was explored. Specifically, an expert system for processing UCT's at the Naval Space Surveillance Command was developed. Rules were generated through traditional knowledge engineering methods and by a novel application of machine learning. The initial results are very good with the operational portions of the system matching the performance of the experts with an accuracy of 99%. Although not yet complete, the code developed in this research definitely shows the potential of using artificial intelligence to process UCT'S.

  19. Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

  20. Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paris, Cecile L.

    1993-01-01

    Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

  1. An expert system for processing sequence homology data

    SciTech Connect

    Sonnhammer, E.L.L.; Durbin, R.

    1994-12-31

    When confronted with the task of finding homology to large numbers of sequences, database searching tools such as Blast and Fasta generate prohibitively large amounts of information. An automatic way of making most of the decisions a trained sequence analyst would make was developed by means of a rule-based expert system combined with an algorithm to avoid non-informative biased residue composition matches. The results found relevant by the system are presented in a very concise and clear way, so that the homology can be assessed with minimum effort. The expert system, HSPcrunch, was implemented to process the output of the programs in the BLAST suite. HSPcrunch embodies rules on detecting distant similarities when pairs of weak matches are consistent with a larger gaped alignment, i.e. when Blast has broken a longer gaped alignment up into smaller ungaped ones. This way, more distant similarities can be detected with no or little side-effects of more spurious matches. The rules for how small the gaps must be to be considered significant have been derived empirically. Currently a set of rules are used that operate on two different scoring levels, one for very weak matches that have very small gaps and one for medium weak matches that have slightly larger gaps. This set of rules proved to be robust for most cases and gives high fidelity separation between real homologies and spurious matches, One of the most important rules for reducing the amount of output is to limit the number of overlapping matches to the same region of the query sequence. This way, a region with many high-scoring matches will not dominate the output and hide weaker but relevant matches to other regions. This is particularly valuable for multi-domain queries.

  2. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

  3. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  4. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software

  5. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, ?, for which the true value, ?*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(?) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about ?) and d(?), a zero-one indicator function of the observation ?*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation ?*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where ? is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(?). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(?) by g(?), the distribution that model the randomness of ?, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(?) to g(?). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  6. Counter-regulating on the Internet: Threat elicits preferential processing of positive information.

    PubMed

    Greving, Hannah; Sassenberg, Kai; Fetterman, Adam

    2015-09-01

    The Internet is a central source of information. It is increasingly used for information search in self-relevant domains (e.g., health). Self-relevant topics are also associated with specific emotions and motivational states. For example, individuals may fear serious illness and feel threatened. Thus far, the impact of threat has received little attention in Internet-based research. The current studies investigated how threat influences Internet search. Threat is known to elicit the preferential processing of positive information. The self-directed nature of Internet search should particularly provide opportunities for such processing behavior. We predicted that during Internet search, more positive information would be processed (i.e., allocated more attention to) and more positive knowledge would be acquired under threat than in a control condition. Three experiments supported this prediction: Under threat, attention is directed more to positive web pages (Study 1) and positive links (Study 2), and more positive information is acquired (Studies 1 and 3) than in a control condition. Notably, the effect on knowledge acquisition was mediated by the effect on attention allocation during an actual Internet search (Study 1). Thus, Internet search under threat leads to selective processing of positive information and dampens threatened individuals' negative affect. PMID:26098968

  7. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey, completed in mid-2004, and (2) drilling of selected anomalies based on the aeromagnetic survey results to better characterize the number, location and age of buried volcanoes, which began in mid-2005. The new aeromagnetic survey detected the presence of 33 anomalies interpreted as possible buried volcanoes or faulted tuff bedrock. A program to drill ten of the anomalies has begun, with the selection of drill holes prioritized based on their potential impact on the hazard assessment.

  8. Identification and evaluation of scientific uncertainties related to fish and aquatic resources in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon - summary and interpretation of an expert-elicitation questionnaire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of resilient decisionmaking and problem-solving is incorporation of a wide range of perspectives (Carpenter and others, 2009). To ensure that a wide range of scientists had an opportunity to weigh in on the strategic science questions, the GCMRC elicited additional perspectives through written questionnaires. Independently soliciting responses from scientists through questionnaires had the added advantage of allowing all scientists to freely and openly share their views on complex and controversial topics—something which may not have occurred in the group setting of the June 2011 Knowledge Assessment Workshop because of dominance by one or more scientists. The purpose of this report is to document and interpret the questionnaire responses.

  9. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  10. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  11. Expert model for intelligent control of composite materials processing in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    1992-02-01

    An expert model for the in-process control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using Personal Consultant Plus (PC Plus) expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol crunching capability of the LISP computer language and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The expert model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. The feasibility of using models to determine the process state when sensors are not available or are malfunctioning was demonstrated. Hercules 3501-6/AS4 8-in x 8-in panels were processed in the heated-platens press, using both the standard cure cycle and the expert model control system. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  12. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices

    PubMed Central

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  13. User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. Methods AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Results Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. Conclusions AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department. PMID:23289426

  14. Design Expert's Participation in Elementary Students' Collaborative Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of the present study was to provide insights into how disciplinary expertise might be infused into Design and Technology classrooms and how authentic processes based on professional design practices might be constructed. We describe elementary students' collaborative lamp designing process, where the leadership was provided by a…

  15. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  16. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C.; Singer, Ralph M.

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  17. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"

  18. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  19. A reevaluation of the electrophysiological correlates of expert object processing.

    PubMed

    Scott, Lisa S; Tanaka, James W; Sheinberg, David L; Curran, Tim

    2006-09-01

    Subordinate-level object processing is regarded as a hallmark of perceptual expertise. However, the relative contribution of subordinate- and basic-level category experience in the acquisition of perceptual expertise has not been clearly delineated. In this study, participants learned to classify wading birds and owls at either the basic (e.g., wading bird, owl) or the subordinate (e.g., egret, snowy owl) level. After 6 days of training, behavioral results showed that subordinate-level but not basic-level training improved subordinate discrimination of trained exemplars, novel exemplars, and exemplars from novel species. Event-related potentials indicated that both basic- and subordinate-level training enhanced the early N170 component, but only subordinate-level training amplified the later N250 component. These results are consistent with models positing separate basic and subordinate learning mechanisms, and, contrary to perspectives attempting to explain visual expertise solely in terms of subordinate-level processing, suggest that expertise enhances neural responses of both basic and subordinate processing. PMID:16989547

  20. Enhanced Temporal but Not Attentional Processing in Expert Tennis Players

    PubMed Central

    Overney, Leila S.; Blanke, Olaf; Herzog, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    In tennis, as in many disciplines of sport, fine spatio-temporal resolution is required to reach optimal performance. While many studies on tennis have focused on anticipatory skills or decision making, fewer have investigated the underlying visual perception abilities. In this study, we used a battery of seven visual tests that allowed us to assess which kind of visual information processing is performed better by tennis players than other athletes (triathletes) and non-athletes. We found that certain time-related skills, such as speed discrimination, are superior in tennis players compared to non-athletes and triathletes. Such tasks might be used to improve tennis performance in the future. PMID:18545661

  1. A Sublanguage Approach to Natural Language Processing for an Expert System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddy, Elizabeth D.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Reports on the development of an NLP (natural language processing) component for processing the free-text comments on life insurance applications for evaluation by an underwriting expert system. A sublanguage grammar approach with strong reliance on semantic word classes is described. Highlights include lexical analysis, adjacency analysis, and…

  2. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  3. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and substantial effect. Prior to this investigation, there have been no studies which have tested Zimmerman's three phase model on an academic task, such as science, within an expertise framework. Implications from the present study suggest that students varying in expertise level in science achievement also vary in self-regulatory behavior, and that gender is not a significant factor.

  4. The rational selection of purification processes for proteins: an expert system for downstream processing design.

    PubMed

    Leser, E W; Asenjo, J A

    1994-05-01

    This paper describes the present state of the art in the use of ES for the rational selection of optimal purification processes for proteins (process synthesis). The main issues involved in selection of operations and process synthesis are reviewed. The high-resolution purification stages (one, two, three, or even more chromatographic steps where several alternatives in different orders of combinations can be used) have a combinatorial nature that can be represented by a "tree" structure. It can be analyzed by a depth-first or a breath-first approach. The two previous prototypes that have been developed are reviewed. The first prototype was exclusively based on "expert" rules, and its main weakness was in the selection of high-resolution purification operations for which a database of physicochemical properties of the main protein contaminants is needed. This was implemented in the second prototype in which a program for the calculation of separation coefficients on selection of high-resolution purification operations based on a preliminary database was interfaced. The present prototype being created uses a newly developed shell, which has an open architecture and uses object-oriented programming. This prototype uses a more "realistic" and accurate database (e.g., titration curves for contaminant proteins) and a tested method for selection of purification operations. The ES for selection of optimal protein separation sequences will give the user a number of alternatives chosen on the basis of the extensive data backup on proteins and unit operations. PMID:8010683

  5. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-07-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications.

  6. Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrachowitz, Markus; Fovet, Ophelie; Ruiz, Laurent; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Savenije, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are frequently characterized by what is often considered to be adequate calibration performances. In many cases, however, these models experience a substantial uncertainty and performance decrease in validation periods, thus resulting in poor predictive power. Besides the likely presence of data errors, this observation can point towards wrong or insufficient representations of the underlying processes and their heterogeneity. In other words, right results are generated for the wrong reasons. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency and to thereby satisfy the contrasting priorities of the need a) to increase model complexity and b) to limit model equifinality. In this study a stepwise model development approach is chosen to test the value of an exhaustive and systematic combined use of hydrological signatures, expert knowledge and readily available, yet anecdotal and rarely exploited, hydrological information for increasing model consistency towards generating the right answer for the right reasons. A simple 3-box, 7 parameter, conceptual HBV-type model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph with comparatively high values for the 4 objective functions in the 5-year calibration period. However, closer inspection of the results showed a dramatic decrease of model performance in the 5-year validation period. In addition, assessing the model's skill to reproduce a range of 20 hydrological signatures including, amongst others, the flow duration curve, the autocorrelation function and the rising limb density, showed that it could not adequately reproduce the vast majority of these signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently model complexity was increased in a stepwise way to allow for more process heterogeneity. To limit model equifinality, increase in complexity was counter-balanced by a stepwise application of "realism constraints", inferred from expert knowledge (e.g. unsaturated storage capacity of hillslopes should exceed the one of wetlands) and anecdotal hydrological information (e.g. long-term estimates of actual evaporation obtained from the Budyko framework and long-term estimates of baseflow contribution) to ensure that the model is well behaved with respect to the modeller's perception of the system. A total of 11 model set-ups with increased complexity and an increased number of realism constraints was tested. It could be shown that in spite of largely unchanged calibration performance, compared to the simplest set-up, the most complex model set-up (12 parameters, 8 constraints) exhibited significantly increased performance in the validation period while uncertainty did not increase. In addition, the most complex model was characterized by a substantially increased skill to reproduce all 20 signatures, indicating a more suitable representation of the system. The results suggest that a model, "well" constrained by 4 calibration objective functions may still be an inadequate representation of the system and that increasing model complexity, if counter-balanced by realism constraints, can indeed increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce a range of hydrological signatures, but that it does not necessarily result in increased uncertainty. The results also strongly illustrate the need to move away from automated model calibration towards a more general expert-knowledge driven strategy of constraining models if a certain level of model consistency is to be achieved.

  7. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

  8. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information

  9. Expert models and modeling processes associated with a computer-modeling tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Baohui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-07-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using think aloud technique and video recording, we captured their computer screen modeling activities and thinking processes. We also interviewed them the day following their modeling sessions to further probe the rationale of their modeling practices. We analyzed both the audio-video transcripts and the experts' models. We found the experts' modeling processes followed the linear sequence built in the modeling program with few instances of moving back and forth. They specified their goals up front and spent a long time thinking through an entire model before acting. They specified relationships with accurate and convincing evidence. Factors (i.e., variables) in expert models were clustered, and represented by specialized technical terms. Based on the above findings, we made suggestions for improving model-based science teaching and learning using Model-It.

  10. Holistic processing of musical notation: Dissociating failures of selective attention in experts and novices.

    PubMed

    Wong, Yetta Kwailing; Gauthier, Isabel

    2010-12-01

    Holistic processing (i.e., the tendency to process objects as wholes) is associated with face perception and also with expertise individuating novel objects. Surprisingly, recent work also reveals holistic effects in novice observers. It is unclear whether the same mechanisms support holistic effects in experts and in novices. In the present study, we measured holistic processing of music sequences using a selective attention task in participants who vary in music-reading expertise. We found that holistic effects were strategic in novices but were relatively automatic in experts. Correlational analyses revealed that individual holistic effects were predicted by both individual music-reading ability and neural responses for musical notation in the right fusiform face area (rFFA), but in opposite directions for experts and novices, suggesting that holistic effects in the two groups may be of different natures. To characterize expert perception, it is important not only to measure the tendency to process objects as wholes, but also to test whether this effect is dependent on task constraints. PMID:21098813

  11. XCUT: A rule-based expert system for the automated process planning of machined parts

    SciTech Connect

    Brooks, S.L.; Hummel, K.E.; Wolf, M.L.

    1987-06-01

    Automated process planning is becoming a popular research and development topic in engineering and applied artificial intelligence. It is generally defined as the automatic planning of the manufacturing procedures for producing a part from a CAD based product definition. An automated process planning system, XCUT, is currently being developed using rule-based expert system techniques. XCUT will generate process plans for the production of machined piece-parts, given a geometric description of a part's features. The system currently is focused on operation planning for prismatic parts on multi-axis CNC milling machines. To date, moderately complex 2-1/2D prismatic parts have successfully been planned for with approximately 300 rules in the knowledge base. This paper will describe the XCUT system, system architecture, knowledge representation, plan development sequence, and issues in applying expert system technology to automated process planning. 16 refs.

  12. Deep Levels of Processing Elicit a Distinctiveness Heuristic: Evidence from the Criterial Recollection Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gallo, David A.; Meadow, Nathaniel G.; Johnson, Elizabeth L.; Foster, Katherine T.

    2008-01-01

    Thinking about the meaning of studied words (deep processing) enhances memory on typical recognition tests, relative to focusing on perceptual features (shallow processing). One explanation for this levels-of-processing effect is that deep processing leads to the encoding of more distinctive representations (i.e., more unique semantic or…

  13. Efficient production of flavonoids in Fagopyrum tataricum hairy root cultures with yeast polysaccharide elicitation and medium renewal process

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Jiang-Lin; Zou, Liang; Zhang, Cai-Qiong; Li, Yuan-Yuan; Peng, Lian-Xin; Xiang, Da-Bing; Zhao, Gang

    2014-01-01

    Background: Tartary buckwheat (Fagopyrum tataricum), an excellent edible and medicinal crop, has been widely used as a daily diet and traditional medicine for a long time. The major functional components of Fagopyrum tataricum have been demonstrated to be flavonoids (i.e. rutin and quercetin), which had notable andioxidant, antidiabetic, hypocholesterolemic and antitumor activities. Hairy root culture is a convenient and efficient plant tissue culture system for large scale production of bioactive metabolites. Objective: To enhance the functional flavonoids production in hairy root culture of F. tataricum. Materials and Methods: The elicitation treatment in combination with medium renewal strategy was applied for efficient promoting flavonoids production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures. Results: The exogenous yeast polysaccharide (YPS) elicitor notably stimulated the functional metabolites production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures, and the stimulation effect was concentration-dependent. Combination with the YPS elicitation (200 mg/L) and medium renewal process, the maximal flavonoids yield was enhanced to 47.13 mg/L, about 3.2-fold in comparison with the control culture of 14.88 mg/L. Moreover, this research also revealed the accumulation of these bioactive metabolites resulted from the stimulation of the phenylpropanoid pathway by YPS treatment. These results indicated that the F. tataricum hairy root culture could be an effective system for rutin and quercetin production. PMID:25210309

  14. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  15. Real-time expert systems interfaces, cognitive processes, and task performance: an empirical assessment.

    PubMed

    Adelman, L; Cohen, M S; Bresnick, T A; Chinnis, J O; Laskey, K B

    1993-06-01

    In this experiment we investigated the effect of different real-time expert system interfaces on operators' cognitive processes and performance. The results supported the principle that a real-time expert system's interface should focus operators' attention on where it is required most. However following this principle resulted in unanticipated consequences. In particular, it led to inferior performance for less critical, yet important cases requiring operators' attention. For such cases operators performed better with an interface that let them select where they wanted to focus their attention. Having a rule generation capability improved performance with all interfaces but did so less than hypothesized. In all cases performance with different interfaces and a rule generation capability was explained by the effect of the interfaces on cognitive process measures. PMID:8349288

  16. Expert knowledge integration in the data mining process with application to cardiovascular risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Tavares, M; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Ramos, J; Mendes, D; Henriques, J; Morais, J

    2015-08-01

    The data mining process, when applied to clinical databases, suffers from critical data problems, from noisy acquisitions to missing or incomplete data points. Expert knowledge, in the form of practitioners' experience and clinical guidelines, is already used to manually correct some of these problems, while enhancing expert's confidence in such systems. In this work, we propose the Knowledge-Biased Tree (KB3), a knowledge biased decision tree inducer that is able to exploit IF THEN rules to guide the tree inducing process. The KB3 approach was tested against its unbiased counterpart, the C5.0 algorithm in the cardiovascular risk assessment task. Using a clinical dataset provided by the hospital of Sta Cruz (Lisbon, Portugal) the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared against the unbiased C5.0 and the state of the art risk score used in clinical practice (GRACE risk score). PMID:26736809

  17. Early neuronal responses in right limbic structures mediate harmony incongruity processing in musical experts.

    PubMed

    James, Clara E; Britz, Juliane; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Hauert, Claude-Alain; Michel, Christoph M

    2008-10-01

    In western tonal music, musical phrases end with an explicit harmonic consequent which is highly expected. As such expectation is a consequence of musical background, cerebral processing of incongruities of musical grammar might be a function of expertise. We hypothesized that a subtle incongruity of standard closure should evoke a profound and rapid reaction in an expert's brain. If such a reaction is due to neuroplasticity as a consequence of musical training, it should be correlated with distinctive activations in sensory, motor and/or cognitive function related brain areas in response to the incongruent closure. Using event related potential (ERP) source imaging, we determined the temporal dynamics of neuronal activity in highly trained pianists and musical laymen in response to syntactic harmonic incongruities in expressive music, which were easily detected by the experts but not by the laymen. Our results revealed that closure incongruity evokes a selective early response in musical experts, characterized by a strong, right lateralized negative ERP component. Statistical source analysis could demonstrate putative contribution to the generation of this component in right temporal-limbic areas, encompassing hippocampal complex and amygdala, and in right insula. Its early onset (approximately 200 ms) preceded responses in frontal areas that may reflect more conscious processing. These results go beyond previous work demonstrating that musical training can change activity of sensory and motor areas during musical or audio-motor tasks, and suggest that functional plasticity in right medial-temporal structures and insula also modulates processing of subtle harmonic incongruities. PMID:18640279

  18. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  19. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of…

  20. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of

  1. The NERV Methodology: Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation, Reasoning and Validation in Agile Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Domah, Darshan

    2013-01-01

    Agile software development has become very popular around the world in recent years, with methods such as Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP). Literature suggests that functionality is the primary focus in Agile processes while non-functional requirements (NFR) are either ignored or ill-defined. However, for software to be of good quality both…

  2. Furin-processed antigens targeted to the secretory route elicit functional TAP1-/-CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo.

    PubMed

    Medina, Francisco; Ramos, Manuel; Iborra, Salvador; de León, Patricia; Rodríguez-Castro, Marta; Del Val, Margarita

    2009-10-01

    Most pathogen-derived peptides recognized by CD8+ CTL are produced by proteasomes and delivered to the endoplasmic reticulum by the TAP transporters associated with Ag processing. Alternative proteases also produce antigenic peptides, but their actual relevance is unclear. There is a need to quantify the contribution of these supplementary pathways in vitro and in vivo. A well-defined TAP-independent secretory route of Ag processing involves the trans-Golgi network protease furin. Quantitation of this route by using OVA constructs encoded by vaccinia viruses indicates that it provides approximately one-third of all surface complexes of peptide and MHC class I molecules. Generation of the epitope carboxyl terminus is a dramatic rate-limiting step, since bypassing it increased efficiency by at least 1000-fold. Notably, the secretory construct activated a similar percentage of Ag-specific CD8+ T cells in wild type as in TAP1-deficient mice, which allow only secretory routes but which have a 10- to 20-fold smaller CD8 compartment. Moreover, these TAP1(-/-) OVA-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes accomplished elimination of epitope-bearing cells in vivo. The results obtained with this experimental system underscore the potential of secretory pathways of MHC class I Ag presentation to elicit functional CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo and support the hypothesis that noncytosolic processing mechanisms may compensate in vivo for the lack of proteasome participation in Ag processing in persons genetically deficient in TAP and thus contribute to pathogen control. PMID:19752221

  3. Knowledge-based aerial image understanding systems and expert systems for image processing

    SciTech Connect

    Matsuyama, T.

    1987-05-01

    This paper discusses roles of artificial intelligence in the automatic interpretation of remotely sensed imagery. The authors first discuss several image understanding systems for analyzing complex aerial photographs. The discussion is mainly concerned with knowledge representation and control structure in the aerial image understanding systems: a blackboard model for integrating diverse object detection modules, a symbolic model representation for three-dimensional object recognition, and integration of bottom-up and top-down analyses. Then, a model of expert systems for image processing is introduced that discussed which and what combinations of image processing operators are effective to analyze an image.

  4. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.…

  5. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.

  6. Thinking within the box: The relational processing style elicited by counterfactual mind-sets.

    PubMed

    Kray, Laura J; Galinsky, Adam D; Wong, Elaine M

    2006-07-01

    By comparing reality to what might have been, counterfactuals promote a relational processing style characterized by a tendency to consider relationships and associations among a set of stimuli. As such, counterfactual mind-sets were expected to improve performance on tasks involving the consideration of relationships and associations but to impair performance on tasks requiring novel ideas that are uninfluenced by salient associations. The authors conducted several experiments to test this hypothesis. In Experiments 1a and 1b, the authors determined that counterfactual mind-sets increase mental states and preferences for thinking styles consistent with relational thought. Experiment 2 demonstrated a facilitative effect of counterfactual mind-sets on an analytic task involving logical relationships; Experiments 3 and 4 demonstrated that counterfactual mind-sets structure thought and imagination around salient associations and therefore impaired performance on creative generation tasks. In Experiment 5, the authors demonstrated that the detrimental effect of counterfactual mind-sets is limited to creative tasks involving novel idea generation; in a creative association task involving the consideration of relationships between task stimuli, counterfactual mind-sets improved performance. PMID:16834478

  7. Development of expert systems for the design of a hot-forging process based on material workability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravi, R.; Prasad, Y. V. R. K.; Sarma, V. V. S.

    2003-12-01

    Most of the time (and cost) involved in planning hot forging process is related to activities strongly dependent on human expertise, intuition, and creativity, and also to iterative procedure involving extensive experimental work. In this paper, the development of an expert system for forging process design, which emphasizes materials’ workability, is discussed. Details of the forging process design expert system, its basic modules, design and implementation details, and deliverables are explained. The system uses the vast database available on the hot workability of more than 200 technologically important materials and the knowledge acquired from a materials’ expert. The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) has been adopted to develop this expert system. The expert system can address three types of functions, namely, forging process design, materials information system, and forging defect analysis. The expert system will aid and prompt a novice engineer in designing a forging process by providing accurate information of the process parameters, lubricants, type of machine, die material, and type of process (isothermal versus non-isothermal) for a given material with a known specification or code and prior history.

  8. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  9. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  10. Development of Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents Using an Expert Consensus Process

    PubMed Central

    Hogan, Teresita M.; Losman, Eve D.; Carpenter, Christopher R.; Sauvigne, Karen; Irmiter, Cheryl; Emanuel, Linda; Leipzig, Rosanne M.

    2011-01-01

    Background The emergency department (ED) visit rate for older patients exceeds that of all age groups other than infants. The aging population will increase elder ED patient utilization to 35% to 60% of all visits. Older patients can have complex clinical presentations and be resource-intensive. Evidence indicates that emergency physicians fail to provide consistent high-quality care for elder ED patients, resulting in poor clinical outcomes. Objectives The objective was to develop a consensus document, “Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents,” by identified experts. This is a minimum set of behaviorally based performance standards that all residents should be able to demonstrate by completion of their residency training. Methods This consensus-based process utilized an inductive, qualitative, multiphase method to determine the minimum geriatric competencies needed by emergency medicine (EM) residents. Assessments of face validity and reliability were used throughout the project. Results In Phase I, participants (n = 363) identified 12 domains and 300 potential competencies. In Phase II, an expert panel (n = 24) clustered the Phase I responses, resulting in eight domains and 72 competencies. In Phase III, the expert panel reduced the competencies to 26. In Phase IV, analysis of face validity and reliability yielded a 100% consensus for eight domains and 26 competencies. The domains identified were atypical presentation of disease; trauma, including falls; cognitive and behavioral disorders; emergent intervention modifications; medication management; transitions of care; pain management and palliative care; and effect of comorbid conditions. Conclusions The Geriatric Competencies for EM Residents is a consensus document that can form the basis for EM residency curricula and assessment to meet the demands of our aging population. PMID:20370765

  11. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 2, Code manual

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-09-01

    We recommend the reader first review Volume 1 of this document, Code Theory, before reading Volume 2. In this volume we make extensive use of terms and concepts described and defined in Volume 1 which are not redefined here to the same extent. To try to reduce the amount of redundant information, we have restricted this volume to the presentation of the expert system code and refer back to the theory described in Volume 1 when necessary. Verification and validation of the results are presented in Volume 3, Application, of this document. Volume 3 also presents the implementation of the component characteristics diagnostic approach through artificial neural networks discussed in Volume 1. We decided to present the component characteristics approach in Volume 3, as opposed to write a separate code manual for it, because the approach, although general, requires a case-by-case analysis. The purpose of this volume is to present the details of the expert system (ES) portion o the PRODIAG process diagnostic program. In addition, we present here the graphical diagnostics interface (GDI) and illustrate the combined use of the ES and GDI with a sample problem. For completeness, we provide the file names of all files, programs and major subroutines of these two systems, ES and GDI, and their corresponding location in the Reactor Analysis Division (RA) computer network and Reactor Engineering Division (RE) computer network as of 30 September 1995.

  12. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  13. Development of an on-line expert system for integrated alarm processing in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Han Gon; Choi, Seong Soo; Kang, Ki Sig; Chang, Soon Heung

    1994-12-31

    An on-line expert system, called AFDS (Alarm Filtering and Diagnostic System), has been developed to assist operators in effectively maintaining plant safety and to enhance plant availability using advanced computer technologies for alarm processing. The AFDS is designed to perform alarm filtering and overall plantwide diagnosis when an abnormal state occurs. in addition to these functions, it carries out alarm prognosis to provide the operator with prediction-based messages and to generate high-level alarms that can be used as another diagnostic information. The system is developed on a SUN SPARC 2 workstation, and its target domain is the alarm system in the main control room of Yonggwang units 1 and 2.

  14. Methodology development of an engineering design expert system utilizing a modular knowledge-base inference process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, Steven John

    Methodology development was conducted to incorporate a modular knowledge-base representation into an expert system engineering design application. The objective for using multidisciplinary methodologies in defining a design system was to develop a system framework that would be applicable to a wide range of engineering applications. The technique of "knowledge clustering" was used to construct a general decision tree for all factual information relating to the design application. This construction combined the design process surface knowledge and specific application depth knowledge. Utilization of both levels of knowledge created a system capable of processing multiple controlling tasks including; organizing factual information relative to the cognitive levels of the design process, building finite element models for depth knowledge analysis, developing a standardized finite element code for parallel processing, and determining a best solution generated by design optimization procedures. Proof of concept for the methodology developed here is shown in the implementation of an application defining the analysis and optimization of a composite aircraft canard subjected to a general compound loading condition. This application contained a wide range of factual information and heuristic rules. The analysis tools used included a finite element (FE) processor and numerical optimizer. An advisory knowledge-base was also developed to provide a standard for conversion of serial FE code for parallel processing. All knowledge-bases developed operated as either an advisory, selection, or classification systems. Laminate properties are limited to even-numbered, quasi-isotropic ply stacking sequences. This retained full influence of the coupled in-plane and bending effects of the structures behavior. The canard is modeled as a constant thickness plate and discretized into a varying number of four or nine-noded, quadrilateral, shear-deformable plate elements. The benefit gained by a designer from using this design methodology is presented by examining the capability of the system to satisfy the different levels of engineering design cognitive abilities. Numerical results of design iterations are provided to detail the expert system's advise in feasible region identification, and multiple iteration outcomes are used to justify solution assessment rules used in controlling the optimization process.

  15. Breast Implant–associated Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma: Updated Results from a Structured Expert Consultation Process

    PubMed Central

    Predmore, Zachary S.; Mattke, Soeren; van Busum, Kristin; Gidengil, Courtney A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite increased cases published on breast implant–associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL), important clinical issues remain unanswered. We conducted a second structured expert consultation process to rate statements related to the diagnosis, management, and surveillance of this disease, based on their interpretation of published evidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of 12 experts was selected based on nominations from national specialty societies, academic department heads, and recognized researchers in the United States. Results: Panelists agreed that (1) this disease should be called “BIA-ALCL”; (2) late seromas occurring >1 year after breast implantation should be evaluated via ultrasound, and if a seroma is present, the fluid should be aspirated and sent for culture, cytology, flow cytometry, and cell block to an experienced hematopathologist; (3) surgical removal of the affected implant and capsule (as completely as possible) should occur, which is sufficient to eradicate capsule-confined BIA-ALCL; (4) surveillance should consist of clinical follow-up at least every 6 months for at least 5 years and breast ultrasound yearly for at least 2 years; and (5) BIA-ALCL is generally a biologically indolent disease with a good prognosis, unless it extends beyond the capsule and/or presents as a mass. They firmly disagreed with statements that chemotherapy and radiation therapy should be given to all patients with BIA-ALCL. Conclusions: Our assessment yielded consistent results on a number of key, incompletely addressed issues regarding BIA-ALCL, but additional research is needed to support these statement ratings and enhance our understanding of the biology, treatment, and outcomes associated with this disease. PMID:25674377

  16. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  17. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques; Wei, Thomas Y. C.

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  18. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  19. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  20. Integrated processing and analysis of hydrological data - not only for experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalicz, P.; Gribovszki, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The advent of the digital data logging results huge amount of hydrological time series from wide variety of hydrological phenomenon and water quality indicators. There are different sampling frequencies, irregular time steps, hand measured control data which are necessary treat in the same database. Some processes (e.g. the concentration of surface water) in small catchments and urban areas change quickly thus at this case for a rigorous study it is necessary to apply high frequency data sampling. Sometimes there is an error and the equidistant times series is broken. The error produced gap in the time series forms an obstacle for some type of calculations. There are many proprietary softwares process these data and gives solutions for the exercises. It can be found also open source solutions. Some years ago the open source R was chosen for analyzing data, which are measured in the Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment. This system is an excellent environment to organize and visualize hydrological time series. The contributing package called zoo has good abilities to work with different temporal resolutions. There are also many sophisticated statistical functions (e.g. auto- and cross-correlation functions, spectral analysis, filters, smoothing algorithms, etc.). During the years some functions was developed for data import, semi-automatic data processing, visualizations and analyses. In the last year in the umbrella of a project brings up a demand for visualize time series from non-R-experts. An easy-to-use graphical user interface was developed to solve this problem instead of cumbersome import/export processes or introduction to R course. This integrated utility uses the integrated Tcl/Tk package and gives possibilities to mouse driven visualization.

  1. Practice Guidance for Buprenorphine for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorders: Results of an Expert Panel Process

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Carrie M.; Lindsay, Dawn; Williams, Jessica; Ayers, Amanda; Schuster, James; Cilia, Alyssa; Flaherty, Michael T.; Mandell, Todd; Gordon, Adam J.; Stein, Bradley D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although numbers of physicians credentialed to prescribe buprenorphine has increased over time, many credentialed physicians may be reluctant to treat individuals with opioid use disorders due to discomfort with prescribing buprenorphine. Though prescribing physicians are required to complete a training course, many have questions about buprenorphine and treatment guidelines have not been updated to reflect clinical experience in recent years. We report on an expert panel process to update and expand buprenorphine guidelines. Methods We identified candidate guidelines through expert opinion and a review of the literature and used a modified RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method to assess the validity of the candidate guidelines. An expert panel completed two rounds of rating, with a meeting to discuss the guidelines between the first and second rating. Results Through the rating process, expert panel members rated 90 candidate guideline statements across eight domains, including candidacy for buprenorphine treatment, dosing of buprenorphine, psychosocial counseling, and treatment of co-occurring depression and anxiety. A total of 65 guideline statements (72%) were rated as valid. Expert panel members had agreement in some areas, such as the treatment of co-occurring mental health problems, but disagreement in others, including the appropriate dosing of buprenorphine given patient complexities. Conclusions Through an expert panel process, we developed an updated and expanded set of buprenorphine treatment guidelines; this additional guidance may increase credentialed physicians’ comfort with prescribing buprenorphine to patients with opioid use disorders. Future efforts should focus on appropriate dosing guidance and ensuring that guidelines can be adapted to a variety of practice settings. PMID:25844527

  2. Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

    PubMed

    Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

    2015-07-01

    Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. PMID:25850859

  3. Background and basis for a knowledge elicitation shell for lifetime predictions from stress corrosion cracking data

    SciTech Connect

    Roberge, P.R.

    1995-12-31

    An ideal expert system should closely reproduce the functions normally performed by the original source expert(s). But the complex transformations of a lifetime of industrial expertise into conveniently accessible software requires the willing and active participation of domain experts whose knowledge is rarely organized for such a transformation. The matching of logical and meticulous knowledge elicitation with memory-based judgments and expertise has often proved to be a difficult task. This paper describes an approach to construct a knowledge elicitation shell specifically adapted to the field of corrosion-related problems and expertise. The knowledge elicitation shell was structured along the lines of what has recently become the framework for the transfer of corrosion information to management and design engineers. The recent work published by Professor R.W. Staehle on the general topic of lifetime prediction and the impact of stress corrosion cracking on materials was used for this task. One obvious advantage of using an established formalism is the availability of supporting documentation and background material. The advantage of using Professor Staehle`s work in particular is the clarity of his points of view that reflect a solid career in materials science and engineering. In this paper, the environment-induced cracking of high-strength aluminum alloys is used as an example to illustrate how the elicitation shell could be activated. It is believed that, by using the elicitation shell, human experts will have to rationalize some aspects of their expertise and subsequently become able to establish new links between facts and corrosion data. The process of building tables of certainty factors during the shell operation and interaction with users is also discussed.

  4. The Editing Process in Writing: A Performance Study of Experts and Novices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hull, Glynda A.

    To determine how writers who differ in editing performance respond to operationally defined categories of errors in different kinds of written texts, a study asked novice and expert editors to correct and comment upon three kinds of error (consulting, intuiting, and comprehending) in two tasks (a self-written essay and three essays written by…

  5. Online Search + Logic Programming = Subject Bibliography: An Expert Systems Approach to Bibliographic Processing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lirov, Yuval; Lirov, Viktor

    1990-01-01

    Describes the development of a knowledge-based system, REX, that creates subject bibliographies by downloading reference material from an online bibliographic service. The expert systems architecture is explained, use of Prolog is described, and creation of the subject knowledge base and an author index are discussed. (10 references) (LRW)

  6. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  7. The Role of Inductive Expert Systems Generators in the Social Science Research Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garson, G. David

    Most of what may be construed as political science has always proceeded through induction, which depends heavily on the insight, intuition, and personal brilliance of the particular author. Another approach that is closely associated with the early induction through examples is the expert system. The outcomes of this approach are not measures of…

  8. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these…

  9. An Ecological Analysis of the Herbivory-Elicited JA Burst and Its Metabolism: Plant Memory Processes and Predictions of the Moving Target Model

    PubMed Central

    Stork, William; Diezel, Celia; Halitschke, Rayko; Gális, Ivan; Baldwin, Ian T.

    2009-01-01

    Background Rapid herbivore-induced jasmonic acid (JA) accumulation is known to mediate many induced defense responses in vascular plants, but little is known about how JA bursts are metabolized and modified in response to repeated elicitations, are propagated throughout elicited leaves, or how they directly influence herbivores. Methodology/Principal Findings We found the JA burst in a native population of Nicotiana attenuata to be highly robust despite environmental variation and we examined the JA bursts produced by repeated elicitations with Manduca sexta oral secretions (OS) at whole- and within-leaf spatial scales. Surprisingly, a 2nd OS-elicitation suppressed an expected JA burst at both spatial scales, but subsequent elicitations caused more rapid JA accumulation in elicited tissue. The baseline of induced JA/JA-Ile increased with number of elicitations in discrete intervals. Large veins constrained the spatial spread of JA bursts, leading to heterogeneity within elicited leaves. 1st-instar M. sexta larvae were repelled by elicitations and changed feeding sites. JA conjugated with isoleucine (JA-Ile) translates elicitations into defense production (e.g., TPIs), but conjugation efficiency varied among sectors and depended on NaWRKY3/6 transcription factors. Elicited TPI activity correlated strongly with the heterogeneity of JA/JA-Ile accumulations after a single elicitation, but not repeated elicitations. Conclusions/Significance Ecologically informed scaling of leaf elicitation reveals the contribution of repeated herbivory events to the formation of plant memory of herbivory and the causes and importance of heterogeneity in induced defense responses. Leaf vasculature, in addition to transmitting long-distance damage cues, creates heterogeneity in JA bursts within attacked leaves that may be difficult for an attacking herbivore to predict. Such unpredictability is a central tenet of the Moving Target Model of defense, which posits that variability in itself is defensive. PMID:19277115

  10. Optimizing Instructional Designer--Subject Matter Expert Communication in the Design and Development of Multimedia Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keppell, Mike

    2001-01-01

    Summarizes a study which explored the development, trial, and implementation of the Content Production Process (CPP) which was designed to assist instructional designers in eliciting and conceptualizing unfamiliar content from subject matter experts. Highlights include advance organizers, schema theory, consultation practices, knowledge

  11. Optimizing Instructional Designer--Subject Matter Expert Communication in the Design and Development of Multimedia Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keppell, Mike

    2001-01-01

    Summarizes a study which explored the development, trial, and implementation of the Content Production Process (CPP) which was designed to assist instructional designers in eliciting and conceptualizing unfamiliar content from subject matter experts. Highlights include advance organizers, schema theory, consultation practices, knowledge…

  12. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  13. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a

  14. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

  15. Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

    PubMed

    Staccini, Pascal M; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

    2002-01-01

    Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

  16. Diverse environmental stresses elicit distinct responses at the level of pre-mRNA processing in yeast

    PubMed Central

    Bergkessel, Megan; Whitworth, Gregg B.; Guthrie, Christine

    2011-01-01

    Gene expression in eukaryotic cells is profoundly influenced by the post-transcriptional processing of mRNAs, including the splicing of introns in the nucleus and both nuclear and cytoplasmic degradation pathways. These processes have the potential to affect both the steady-state levels and the kinetics of changes to levels of intron-containing transcripts. Here we report the use of a splicing isoform-specific microarray platform to investigate the effects of diverse stress conditions on pre-mRNA processing. Interestingly, we find that diverse stresses cause distinct patterns of changes at this level. The responses we observed are most dramatic for the RPGs and can be categorized into three major classes. The first is characterized by accumulation of RPG pre-mRNA and is seen in multiple types of amino acid starvation regimes; the magnitude of splicing inhibition correlates with the severity of the stress. The second class is characterized by a rapid decrease in both pre- and mature RPG mRNA and is seen in many stresses that inactivate the TORC1 kinase complex. These decreases depend on nuclear turnover of the intron-containing pre-RNAs. The third class is characterized by a decrease in RPG pre-mRNA, with only a modest reduction in the mature species; this response is observed in hyperosmotic and cation-toxic stresses. We show that casein kinase 2 (CK2) makes important contributions to the changes in pre-mRNA processing, particularly for the first two classes of stress responses. In total, our data suggest that complex post-transcriptional programs cooperate to fine-tune expression of intron-containing transcripts in budding yeast. PMID:21697354

  17. Improved identification of clastic depositional environments by process and facies models in expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Shultz, A.W.; Fang, J.H.; Chen, C.

    1989-03-01

    A previously described expert system for identification of clastic depositional environments (XEOD) has been substantially redesigned and improved as XEOD-II. Whereas the original design utilized simple checklist relationships between environments and features (sedimentary structures, lithology, etc), the new version is more meaningful in that it uses features to characterize facies as intermediate steps to an environmental interpretation. Some facies correspond directly to particular environments (e.g., tractive unidirectional currents). Facies classification is hierarchical, and identification proceeds to the most specific level allowable by the input data. More contexturally accurate interpretations for coastal and fluvial systems are possible using a series of data sets representing facies in a vertical sequence. Tentative facies identifications are verified by imperfect matching against a set of idealized vertical-sequence models. Incomplete and imperfect matches are diagnosed using alternative interpretations which combine two or more models. In spite of considerable difficulty in accepting both specific and varietal terms, improvements in the user interface have resulted in a relatively forgiving program. XEOD-II thus represents a second-generation system utilizing both factual knowledge and logical reasoning in sedimentological facies analysis.

  18. CABPRO: An expert system for process planning multiwire cables. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.

    1994-04-01

    CABPRO (CABle PROcessor) is a set of computer programs using Artificial Intelligence programming to automatically generate process plans and work instructions in support of the manufacture of multiwire cables. Development of these programs required selecting appropriate hardware and software tools, defining engineering process planning activities, acquiring and representing process planning knowledge, and creating a prototype system. A successful prototype was developed and demonstrated.

  19. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... expert judgment elicitation comports with the level of knowledge required by the questions or issues... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Expert judgment. 194.26 Section...

  20. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... expert judgment elicitation comports with the level of knowledge required by the questions or issues... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Expert judgment. 194.26 Section...

  1. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 1, Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.; Vitela, J.E.

    1995-09-01

    The function of the PRODIAG code is to diagnose on-line the root cause of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) system transient with trace back to the identification of the malfunctioning component using the T-H instrumentation signals exclusively. The code methodology is based on the Al techniques of automated reasoning/expert systems (ES) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The research and development objective is to develop a generic code methodology which would be plant- and T-H-system-independent. For the ES part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be implemented through input only and at that only through a Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (PID) database. For the ANN part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be through the ANN training data for normal component characteristics and the same PID database information. PRODIAG would, therefore, be generic and portable from T-H system to T-H system and from plant to plant without requiring any code-related modifications except for the PID database and the ANN training with the normal component characteristics. This would give PRODIAG the generic feature which numerical simulation plant codes such as TRAC or RELAP5 have. As the code is applied to different plants and different T-H systems, only the connectivity information, the operating conditions and the normal component characteristics are changed, and the changes are made entirely through input. Verification and validation of PRODIAG would, be T-H system independent and would be performed only ``once``.

  2. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  3. The effects of time pressure on chess skill: an investigation into fast and slow processes underlying expert performance.

    PubMed

    van Harreveld, Frenk; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; van der Maas, Han L J

    2007-09-01

    The ability to play chess is generally assumed to depend on two types of processes: slow processes such as search, and fast processes such as pattern recognition. It has been argued that an increase in time pressure during a game selectively hinders the ability to engage in slow processes. Here we study the effect of time pressure on expert chess performance in order to test the hypothesis that compared to weak players, strong players depend relatively heavily on fast processes. In the first study we examine the performance of players of various strengths at an online chess server, for games played under different time controls. In a second study we examine the effect of time controls on performance in world championship matches. Both studies consistently show that skill differences between players become less predictive of the game outcome as the time controls are tightened. This result indicates that slow processes are at least as important for strong players as they are for weak players. Our findings pose a challenge for current theorizing in the field of expertise and chess. PMID:17186308

  4. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit

  5. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  6. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three

  7. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are

  8. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  9. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  10. Expert System Development in the Classroom: Processes and Outcomes. Technical Report 91-1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wideman, Herbert H.; Owston, Ronald D.

    This study examined cognitive processes and outcomes associated with student knowledge base development. Sixty-nine students from two grade 8 classes were randomly assigned to one of three groups: a knowledge base development (KBD) group, a problem-solving software group, and a control group. Those in the KBD group received relevant instruction…

  11. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  12. A Type-2 Fuzzy Image Processing Expert System for Diagnosing Brain Tumors.

    PubMed

    Zarinbal, M; Fazel Zarandi, M H; Turksen, I B; Izadi, M

    2015-10-01

    The focus of this paper is diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas in MRI scans by developing an interval Type-2 fuzzy automated tumor detection system. This system consists of three modules: working memory, knowledge base, and inference engine. An image processing method with three steps of preprocessing, segmentation and feature extraction, and approximate reasoning is used in inference engine module to enhance the quality of MRI scans, segment them into desired regions, extract the required features, and finally diagnose and differentiate Astrocytomas. However, brain tumors have different characteristics in different planes, so considering one plane of patient's MRI scan may cause inaccurate results. Therefore, in the developed system, several consecutive planes are processed. The performance of this system is evaluated using 95 MRI scans and the results show good improvement in diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas. PMID:26276018

  13. Expert systems.

    PubMed

    Morrell, R; Wasilauskas, B; Winslow, R

    1994-08-15

    The concept of computerized expert systems is explained, the potential utility of these systems in pharmacy is explored, and strategies and imperatives for implementing them are described. Computerized expert systems attempt a higher level of analysis than traditional computer programs. They can be defined as systems that attempt to make or assist in a decision that is not yet completely and reliably definable in objective terms. Because of the information-intensive nature of pharmacy practice, this field is particularly suited to use of expert systems. Current applications include screening for drug interactions and therapeutic drug monitoring. Expert systems must offer a substantial advantage over human expertise (for example, by quickly analyzing enormous quantities of data); those that perform functions that humans could perform have failed to gain widespread use. An ideal hospital expert system would have access to any data available about a patient's care and would detect critical situations as they occur. Such a system would require pharmacists to shift from a prescription-based orientation to a case-management orientation. Factors to consider in implementing an expert system include linkage among multiple departments, usage options, development strategies, and maintenance requirements. Computerized expert systems hold great potential for application to pharmacy and may influence the pharmacist's role in patient care. PMID:7977423

  14. Integration Of The BUZZ Image Processing System With An Expert System For Vehicle Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggleby, William G.

    1988-03-01

    Modern manufacturing environments are using an increasing number of automated guided vehicles. While these robots can improve productivity, they are restricted to following preset paths marked by paint or electrical wires. A need exists for a robot cart which can determine its own path given knowledge of its surroundings and its goals. This type of robot could determine the shortest path to accomplish its goals, and it could use heuristic reasoning to determine how to get around obstacles which would normally block a painted path. Image processing techniques combined with knowledge-based reasoning can provide a solution to this problem. This paper discusses a system which acquires video images of a hallway, segments those images using image processing algorithms, and determines the classification of objects and the appropriate path for a cart using heuristic reasoning. The images are segmented using basic knowledge of the surroundings. Heuristics in the form of production rules are used to determine the classification for each segment and the corresponding confidence. The rules were developed from an analysis of the basic features common to object classes in the image database.

  15. An instructional design process based on expert knowledge for teaching students how mechanisms are explained.

    PubMed

    Trujillo, Caleb M; Anderson, Trevor R; Pelaez, Nancy J

    2016-06-01

    In biology and physiology courses, students face many difficulties when learning to explain mechanisms, a topic that is demanding due to the immense complexity and abstract nature of molecular and cellular mechanisms. To overcome these difficulties, we asked the following question: how does an instructor transform their understanding of biological mechanisms and other difficult-to-learn topics so that students can comprehend them? To address this question, we first reviewed a model of the components used by biologists to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms: the MACH model, with the components of methods (M), analogies (A), context (C), and how (H). Next, instructional materials were developed and the teaching activities were piloted with a physical MACH model. Students who used the MACH model to guide their explanations of mechanisms exhibited both improvements and some new difficulties. Third, a series of design-based research cycles was applied to bring the activities with an improved physical MACH model into biology and biochemistry courses. Finally, a useful rubric was developed to address prevalent student difficulties. Here, we present, for physiology and biology instructors, the knowledge and resources for explaining molecular and cellular mechanisms in undergraduate courses with an instructional design process aimed at realizing pedagogical content knowledge for teaching. Our four-stage process could be adapted to advance instruction with a range of models in the life sciences. PMID:27231262

  16. The amastigote forms of Leishmania are experts at exploiting host cell processes to establish infection and persist

    PubMed Central

    Kima, Peter E.

    2007-01-01

    Leishmania are dimorphic protozoan parasites that live as flagellated forms in the gut of their sandfly vector and as aflagellated forms in their mammalian hosts. Although both parasite forms can infect macrophages and dendritic cells, they elicit distinct responses from mammalian cells. Amastigotes are the parasites forms that persist in the infected host; they infect cells recruited to lesions and disseminate the infection to secondary sites. In this review I discuss studies that have investigated the mechanisms that Leishmania amastigotes employ to harness the host cell’s response to infection. It should be acknowledged that our understanding of the mechanisms deployed by Leishmania amastigotes to modulate the host cell’s response to infection is still rudimentary. Nonetheless, the results show that amastigote interactions with mammalian cells promote the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-10 and TGF-ß while suppressing the production of IL-12, superoxide and nitric oxide. An underlying issue that is considered is how these parasites that reside in sequestered vacuolar compartments target host cell processes in the cytosol or the nucleus; does this occur through the release of parasite molecules from parasitophorous vacuoles or by engaging and sustaining signaling pathways throughout the course of infection? PMID:17543969

  17. Expert networks in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

  18. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or hobbies). Unify myriad collections of data into Web-enabled repository that could easily be searched for relevant data.

  19. Oil palm fresh fruit bunch ripeness classification based on rule- based expert system of ROI image processing technique results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfatni, M. S. M.; Shariff, A. R. M.; Abdullah, M. Z.; Marhaban, M. H.; Shafie, S. B.; Bamiruddin, M. D.; Saaed, O. M. B.

    2014-06-01

    There is a processing need for a fast, easy and accurate classification system for oil palm fruit ripeness. Such a system will be invaluable to farmers and plantation managers who need to sell their oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) for the mill as this will avoid disputes. In this paper,a new approach was developed under the name of expert rules-based systembased on the image processing techniques results of thethree different oil palm FFB region of interests (ROIs), namely; ROI1 (300x300 pixels), ROI2 (50x50 pixels) and ROI3 (100x100 pixels). The results show that the best rule-based ROIs for statistical colour feature extraction with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier at 94% were chosen as well as the ROIs that indicated results higher than the rule-based outcome, such as the ROIs of statistical colour feature extraction with artificial neural network (ANN) classifier at 94%, were selected for further FFB ripeness inspection system.

  20. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-05-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  1. Expert AIV: Study and Prototyping of an Expert System, To Support the Conceptual AIV Phases Of Space Programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrina, G.; Basso, V.; Saitta, L.

    2004-08-01

    The effort in optimising the AIV process has been mainly focused in the recent years on the standardisation of approaches and on the application of new methodologies. But the earlier the intervention, the greater the benefits in terms of cost and schedule. Early phases of AIV process relied up to now on standards that need to be tailored through company and personal expertise. A study has then been conducted in order to exploit the possibility to develop an expert system helping in making choices in the early, conceptual phase of Assembly, Integration and Verification, namely the Model Philosophy and the test definition. The work focused on a hybrid approach, allowing interaction between historical data and human expertise. The expert system that has been prototyped exploits both information elicited from domain experts and results of a Data Mining activity on the existent data bases of completed projects verification data. The Data Mining algorithms allow the extraction of past experience resident on ESA/ MATD data base, which contains information in the form of statistical summaries, costs, frequencies of on-ground and in flight failures. Finding non-trivial associations could then be utilised by the experts to manage new decisions in a controlled way (Standards driven) at the beginning or during the AIV Process Moreover, the Expert AIV could allow compilation of a set of feasible AIV schedules to support further programmatic-driven choices.

  2. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  3. [Medical expert systems].

    PubMed

    Masić, I; Ridanović, Z; Pandza, H

    1995-01-01

    Expert systems are software systems that can successfully compare to human experts. Their purpose is mostly advisory. Besides, they give explanation and advice to human experts when performing certain tasks. They are intelligent information systems, and are capable to explain and justify their conclusions. Knowledge systems are smaller software systems, and are usually less successful than human experts. Main reasons for expert systems development in medicine are: need for justification of decisions, need for enhancing performances in many uncertain relations; need for explaining of decision making process etc. One of the reasons of developing knowledge-based systems was that conventional statistic formalisms have not provided satisfactory solutions in medical decision making (MDM). Also, today, the relations between cases and conclusions are not universally valid. So, few causes can provide the same conclusion. Besides, data are not necessarily absolutely accurate. The area of applying expert systems is very wide: diagnosis, prognosis, self-education, directing etc. Basic structure of expert system consists of: knowledge, data base, inferring mechanism, explaining mechanism and user-interface. Though, expert systems also have certain bad features: primarily, they are not physicians i.e. they can not examine a patient. Furthermore, expert system that is good for one certain area is often not good for another one. There are some cases, when these systems can confuse a physician and make him to make a wrong decision. This occurs very often in two specific cases: when the clinical situation is urgent; and when accuracy of clinical information is not definite. PMID:9601753

  4. Consensus standards for the process of cancer care: a modified expert panel method applied to head and neck cancer. South and West Expert Tumour Panel for Head and Neck Cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Birchall, M. A.

    1998-01-01

    There are many pressures to improve the standard of care delivered to cancer patients, including the reforms subsequent to the Calman-Hine report. The establishment of standards is a prerequisite for audit, benchmarking and certification of cancer centres and units. Randomized trials of head and neck cancer are uncommon, and other forms of evidence often conflicting. In the south and west of England, a multidisciplinary expert panel consensus method has been applied to the development of standards. A panel representative of specialties involved in the process of care at all three levels, plus social medicine and lay members, was constructed. A model for the process of care was developed consisting of activity areas. For each activity, a near exhaustive list of tasks and standards was established. A three-iteration method with statistical group response was then used to refine the standards. The same method was also applied to the production of a minimum data set for registration, recording and audit. The resulting standards will be regularly reviewed. We have developed a model of the care process, and an expert panel methodology that is applicable to a wide range of problems in clinical oncology. PMID:9667669

  5. Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

  6. Expert reports.

    PubMed

    Thornton, R G

    2000-10-01

    In 1996, article 4590i of the Texas Revised Civil Statutes Annotated, the statutory provision that governs health care liability claims in Texas, was amended to require claimants to file expert reports within 180 days as part of the prosecution of their claims. Sufficient expert reports include explanations of the standard of care, the deviation from that standard, and how the deviation caused the claimant's damages. Two provisions allow courts to grant a 30-day extension for filing expert reports. A good cause extension can be used to extend the filing deadline to 210 days; however, case law has not clearly defined what constitutes good cause. An accident or mistake grace period can be used to justify reports filed >210 days after the suit has been filed; judges determine whether the failure is due to a mistake or intentional indifference. As with any statute, the language is not as important as how the courts (judges) interpret that language. The statute may appear strict but room for interpretation exists. PMID:16389359

  7. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  8. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,

  9. A hybrid expert system for the diagnosis of epileptic crisis.

    PubMed

    Brasil, L M; de Azevedo, F M; Barreto, J M

    2001-01-01

    This work presents a hybrid expert system (HES) intended to minimise some complex problems pervasive to knowledge engineering such as: the knowledge elicitation process, known as the bottleneck of expert systems; the choice of a model for knowledge representation to codify human reasoning; the number of neurons in the hidden layer and the topology used in the connectionist approach; the difficulty to extract an explanation from the network. Two algorithms applied to developing of HES are also suggested. One of them is used to train the fuzzy neural network and the other to obtain explanations on how the fuzzy neural network attained a conclusion. A case study is presented (e.g. epileptic crisis) with the inclusion of problem definition and simulations. The results are also discussed. PMID:11154890

  10. [The scientific expert in the example of regional fishery management councils: a multi-faceted player in the decision-making process].

    PubMed

    Gambardella, Sophie

    2014-03-01

    The management and conservation of fish stocks require precise scientific knowledge, especially on the state of said stocks and their capacity for renewal. For instance, the setting of fishing "quotas", which consists in the determination of the quantity of fish that can be taken in a given period, cannot be done at random since these allocations represent environmental and economic stakes. Thus, decision makers logically call upon experts to adopt informed decisions. Consequently, various regional fisheries Commissions created Scientific Committees, which were associated to their work to have available knowledge on a permanent basis. And yet, the institutionalisation of scientific expertise within regional fisheries Commissions led the expert to go beyond its traditional role of knowledge provider. Facing his usual context of scientific uncertainty, the expert has indeed acquired other responsibilities. Through this "micro-legal" study--in the sense that it results from an empirical analysis of the Mediterranean context--we will try to highlight the different functions of the expert associated with the decision process in the field of the management and protection of Mediterranean fish stocks. PMID:25073329

  11. Recurrent expert networks

    SciTech Connect

    LeBlanc, C.

    1996-12-31

    Research has shown that computational techniques such as neural networks often provide classification abilities that are more accurate than methods which rely on explicit knowledge acquisition alone. On the other hand, because no {open_quotes}reason{close_quotes} for a particular classification can be given when a computational technique has been used, human experts tend to be skeptical of such systems. As a result, many researchers have developed tools, called hybrid systems, which combine the pattern recognition capabilities and parallel processing of neural systems while retaining the domain knowledge encoded in expert systems.

  12. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of completing classical data analysis with PEK as a mean to extract relevant knowledge in complex health domains. One of the major benefits of EbCA is iterative elicitation of IK.. Both explicit and tacit or implicit expert knowledge are critical to guide the scientific analysis of very complex decisional problems as those found in health system research. PMID:20920289

  13. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  14. Being an Expert Mathematics Online Tutor: What Does Expertise Entail?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinovic, Dragana

    2009-01-01

    This article is derived from the qualitative portion of a larger study conducted on mathematics websites that provide expert volunteer help. Data consist of tutoring logs of five expert tutors from two help sites, plus interviews with these tutors. The researcher has employed theories about expertise in the educational domain to elicit details of…

  15. Development of a knowledge elicitation shell for materials performance evaluation in seawater systems

    SciTech Connect

    Trethewey, K.R; Phillips, S.; Roberge, P.R.

    1994-12-31

    It has been shown that people have a considerable aggravating influence on system failure by corrosion. In the 21st century, when the emphasis is expected to fall firmly on conservation of valuable resources and more economic use of energy -- issues likely to be governed by law -- KBSs will have a considerable role to play in reducing the incidence of premature failure by corrosion. Knowledge elicitation is a precursor to the construction of knowledge based systems (KBSS) but represents a serious difficulty for software developers. The complex transformation of lifetime industrial expertise into software requires the willing and active participation of domain experts, frequently unfamiliar with computers and not necessarily inclined or able to share the details of their thought processes. Whilst knowledge and experience can be shared by a group of people, expertise is uniquely tinted by the expert`s own individuality. This paper discusses the strategies for the formulation of expert knowledge applicable to each of the groups of people involved in corrosion failure. 38 refs.

  16. Effects of competitive pressure on expert performance: underlying psychological, physiological, and kinematic mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Andrew; Kavussanu, Maria; McIntyre, David; Boardley, Ian D; Ring, Christopher

    2011-08-01

    Although it is well established that performance is influenced by competitive pressure, our understanding of the mechanisms which underlie the pressure-performance relationship is limited. The current experiment examined mediators of the relationship between competitive pressure and motor skill performance of experts. Psychological, physiological, and kinematic responses to three levels of competitive pressure were measured in 50 expert golfers, during a golf putting task. Elevated competitive pressure increased putting accuracy, anxiety, effort, and heart rate, but decreased grip force. Quadratic effects of pressure were noted for self-reported conscious processing and impact velocity. Mediation analyses revealed that effort and heart rate partially mediated improved performance. The findings indicate that competitive pressure elicits effects on expert performance through both psychological and physiological pathways. PMID:21265862

  17. Text Mining and Natural Language Processing Approaches for Automatic Categorization of Lay Requests to Web-Based Expert Forums

    PubMed Central

    Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-01-01

    Background Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called “ask the doctor” services. Objective To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. Methods We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website “Rund ums Baby” (“Everything about Babies”) into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions (“subject matter” and “expectations”). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer’s V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. Results According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category “in vitro fertilization (IVF),” 81 (8%) into the category “ovulation,” 79 (8%) into “cycle,” and 57 (6%) into “semen analysis.” These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as “general information” and 351 (36%) as a wish for “treatment recommendations.” The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer’s V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other approaches, 100% precision and 100% recall were realized in 18 (47%) out of the 38 categories in the test sample. For 35 (92%) categories, precision and recall were better than 80%. For some categories, the input variables (ie, “words”) also included variables from other categories, most often with a negative sign. For example, absence of words predictive for “menstruation” was a strong indicator for the category “pregnancy test.” Conclusions Our approach suggests a way of automatically classifying and analyzing unstructured information in Internet expert forums. The technique can perform a preliminary categorization of new requests and help Internet medical experts to better handle the mass of information and to give professional feedback. PMID:19632978

  18. An overview of the national immunization policy making process: the role of the Korea expert committee on immunization practices

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    The need for evidence-based decision making in immunization programs has increased due to the presence of multiple health priorities, limited human resources, expensive vaccines, and limited funds. Countries should establish a group of national experts to advise their Ministries of Health. So far, many nations have formed their own National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs). In the Republic of Korea, the Korea Expert Committee on Immunization Practices (KECIP), established by law in the early 1990s, has made many important technical recommendations to contribute to the decline in vaccine preventable diseases and currently functions as a NITAG. It includes 13 core members and 2 non-core members, including a chairperson. Core members usually come from affiliated organizations in internal medicine, pediatrics, obstetrics, microbiology, preventive medicine, nursing and a representative from a consumer group, all of whom serve two year terms. Non-core members comprise two government officials belonging to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) and the Korea Food and Drug Administration. Meetings are held as needed, but at least twice a year, and sub-committees are formed as a resource for gathering, analyzing, and preparing information for the KECIP meetings. Once the sub-committees or the KCDC review the available data, the KECIP members discuss each issue in depth and develop recommendations, usually by a consensus in the meeting. The KECIP publishes national guidelines and immunization schedules that are updated regularly. KECIP's role is essentially consultative and the implementation of their recommendations may depend on the budget or current laws. PMID:22359523

  19. Capital Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  20. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1) defining the range of concerns of the public toward different bioremediation strategies and long-term stewardship; (2) creating materials and delivery methods that address bioremediation issues; and (3) assessing the effectiveness of the consensus workshop in identifying concerns about bioremediation and involving the public in a dialogue about their use. After a brief description of the Idaho workshop, we discuss the range of concerns articulated by the participants about bioremediation, discuss the materials and delivery methods used to communicate information about bioremediation, and assess the effectiveness of the consensus workshop. In summary we found that panel members in general: understood complex technical issues, especially when given enough time in a facilitated discussion with experts; are generally accepting of in situ bioremediation, but concerned about costs, safety, and effectiveness of the technology; are concerned equally about technology and decision processes; and liked the consensus workshop approach to learning about bioremediation.

  1. Expert Systems: An Overview.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adiga, Sadashiv

    1984-01-01

    Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems

  2. Expert Systems: An Overview.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adiga, Sadashiv

    1984-01-01

    Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…

  3. How experiences become data: the process of eliciting adverse event, medical history and concomitant medication reports in antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurately characterizing a drug’s safety profile is essential. Trial harm and tolerability assessments rely, in part, on participants’ reports of medical histories, adverse events (AEs), and concomitant medications. Optimal methods for questioning participants are unclear, but different methods giving different results can undermine meta-analyses. This study compared methods for eliciting such data and explored reasons for dissimilar participant responses. Methods Participants from open-label antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials in two distinct sites (South Africa, n = 18 [all HIV positive]; Tanzania, n = 80 [86% HIV positive]) were asked about ill health and treatment use by sequential use of (1) general enquiries without reference to particular conditions, body systems or treatments, (2) checklists of potential health issues and treatments, (3) in-depth interviews. Participants’ experiences of illness and treatment and their reporting behaviour were explored qualitatively, as were trial clinicians’ experiences with obtaining participant reports. Outcomes were the number and nature of data by questioning method, themes from qualitative analyses and a theoretical interpretation of participants’ experiences. Results There was an overall cumulative increase in the number of reports from general enquiry through checklists to in-depth interview; in South Africa, an additional 12 medical histories, 21 AEs and 27 medications; in Tanzania an additional 260 medical histories, 1 AE and 11 medications. Checklists and interviews facilitated recognition of health issues and treatments, and consideration of what to report. Information was sometimes not reported because participants forgot, it was considered irrelevant or insignificant, or they feared reporting. Some medicine names were not known and answers to questions were considered inferior to blood tests for detecting ill health. South African inpatient volunteers exhibited a “trial citizenship”, working to achieve researchers’ goals, while Tanzanian outpatients sometimes deferred responsibility for identifying items to report to trial clinicians. Conclusions Questioning methods and trial contexts influence the detection of adverse events, medical histories and concomitant medications. There should be further methodological work to investigate these influences and find appropriate questioning methods. PMID:24229315

  4. Structuring expert input for a knowledge-based approach to watershed condition assessment for the Northwest Forest Plan, USA.

    PubMed

    Gordon, Sean N; Gallo, Kirsten

    2011-01-01

    Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a computer-based decision support application from expert judgments for assessing aquatic and riparian conditions over the 100,000 km² managed by the US federal government under the Northwest Forest Plan. The decision support system helped structure and document the assessment process and provided consistency and transparency to the evaluation methodology. However, many decisions and trade-offs were required in the expert engagement and model-building processes. Knowledge elicitation in an interactive group had a number of benefits over nominal group or Delphi processes, but efficient knowledge capture required considerable planning and expertise in the subject matter and modeling process. Communicating model results for validation was problematic and only effectively accomplished via in-person workshops. The choice to use different expert groups for each biophysical province provided more opportunities for participation and promoted greater ownership in the assessment, but it also led to increased variation among the resulting model structures. We propose three possible approaches for better managing the consistency of assessment models when multiple expert groups are involved. PMID:20306142

  5. Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-06-01

    It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

  6. Expert consultation on the optimal duration of exclusive breastfeeding: the process, recommendations, and challenges for the future.

    PubMed

    Habicht, Jean-Pierre

    2004-01-01

    In March, 2001 The World Health Organization (WHO) convened an Expert Consultation to recommend to WHO an optimal duration of exclusive breastfeeding. WHO formulated the specific questions to be addressed, selected the membership for the meeting, prepared background documents, and provided the venue for the meeting. After the meeting WHO formally accepted the recommendations and began to implement them. The Consultation recommended that WHO change its recommendation on exclusive breastfeeding from four-to-six months to a recommendation to promote exclusive breastfeeding for six months. This recommendation was contingent upon WHO also accepting and implementing other recommendations to deal with possible detrimental side effects, and to support mothers who did not exclusively breastfeed for six months. The amount of scientific evidence available was more than is often available for policy decisions in health, but much less than desirable to address issues of generalizability across and within populations. The evidence for the contingent recommendations was also less than desirable and raises a number of important research questions that now need to be addressed. PMID:15384568

  7. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  8. Problem Solving: Learning from Experts and Novices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dufresne, Robert J.

    One approach to the study of cognitive processes highlights the distinctions between expert and novice problem solvers. This approach attempts to discover how experts and novices differ in the way they organize, retain and use domain related knowledge. It appears to some that what is learned from expert-novice research can help teachers to teach…

  9. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies are needed to better understand the explosion risks of UXO. PMID:18627542

  10. Graph transformation expert system (GTES)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Guiquing; Ge, Qihong; Zhong, Luo; Xie, Weiping

    1996-03-01

    The design of many industrial and engineering systems can often be accomplished using flow graphs of various types. Examples include manufacturing processes and data processing applications, Graph Transformation Expert System, is an expert system which has been developed by WUT for applying techniques of artificial intelligence to the architectural design of data and signal processing systems. Software and hardware architectures may be defined for such systems using data flow graphs, in which nodes represent data processing steps and directed areas represent the `flow' of data between the processing steps. Starting with a user- defined generic processing graphic, this expert will transform the graph by applying transformation rules in order to specialize the processing graph to satisfy specified design goals and/or hardware constraints. Although the particular application for which this expert is designed is that of data and signal processing systems, it can provide an expert system framework for other problems specified graphically; for example, manufacturing systems, information systems, and product distribution systems.

  11. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; McCall, Kurt E.

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  12. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  13. The Development of Expert Face Processing: Are Infants Sensitive to Normal Differences in Second-Order Relational Information?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayden, Angela; Bhatt, Ramesh S.; Reed, Andrea; Corbly, Christine R.; Joseph, Jane E.

    2007-01-01

    Sensitivity to second-order relational information (i.e., spatial relations among features such as the distance between eyes) is a vital part of achieving expertise with face processing. Prior research is unclear on whether infants are sensitive to second-order differences seen in typical human populations. In the current experiments, we examined…

  14. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  15. Expert Systems: Power to the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carrington, Bessie M.

    1990-01-01

    Provides an introduction to expert systems and offers guidelines for their use in library applications. Areas discussed include appropriate domains for expert systems in libraries, a brief description of how such systems work, and criteria for selection. Sources of sample programs and tutorials are identified. (three references) (CLB)

  16. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  17. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  18. Brain response to birdsongs in bird experts.

    PubMed

    Chartrand, Jean-Pierre; Filion-Bilodeau, Sarah; Belin, Pascal

    2007-03-01

    Auditory expertise has mostly been studied in relation to musical processing, but expert auditory processing can also involve nonmusical auditory stimuli, such as birdsongs in bird experts. In this study, the neural correlates of bird expertise were investigated by using electroencephalography to measure auditory-evoked potentials in bird experts and novices. Auditory stimuli in three categories (birdsongs, environmental sounds and voices) were presented in a pseudo-random order while participants performed a simple target detection task (pure tone). We observed similar amplitudes and distributions of the N100-component in bird experts and novices. In contrast, the amplitude of the P200 component was significantly smaller in bird experts at the Pz and Cz electrodes, reflecting a more frontal topography of this positivity. Notably, this group difference was observed not only for birdsongs, but also for voices and environmental sounds, suggesting a general processing difference in bird experts, not restricted to the category of expertise. PMID:17435598

  19. What Are Expert Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Agapeyeff, A.

    1986-01-01

    Intended for potential business users, this paper describes the main characteristics of expert systems; discusses practical use considerations; presents a taxonomy of the systems; and reviews several expert system development projects in business and industry. (MBR)

  20. Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

    2000-01-01

    This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

  1. Some Perspectives for Didgital Libraries Usage as Knowledge Sources for Expert Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, V. V.; Beljev, M. V.

    Some perspectives for digital libraries usage as knowledge sources for expert systems are described in this paper. The application abilities and restrictions of methods for knowledge elicitation from texts and Data Mining in digital libraries are examined. It is proposed the approach to knowledge elicitation from digital libraries according to mentioned restrictions.

  2. Knowledge acquisition for a simple expert controller

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bieker, B.

    1987-01-01

    A method is presented for process control which has the properties of being incremental, cyclic and top-down. It is described on the basis of the development of an expert controller for a simple, but nonlinear control route. A quality comparison between expert controller and process operator shows the ability of the method for knowledge acquisition.

  3. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  4. Hybrid expert system for decision supporting in the medical area: complexity and cognitive computing.

    PubMed

    Brasil, L M; de Azevedo, F M; Barreto, J M

    2001-09-01

    This paper proposes a hybrid expert system (HES) to minimise some complexity problems pervasive to the artificial intelligence such as: the knowledge elicitation process, known as the bottleneck of expert systems; the model choice for knowledge representation to code human reasoning; the number of neurons in the hidden layer and the topology used in the connectionist approach; the difficulty to obtain the explanation on how the network arrived to a conclusion. Two algorithms applied to developing of HES are also suggested. One of them is used to train the fuzzy neural network and the other to obtain explanations on how the fuzzy neural network attained a conclusion. To overcome these difficulties the cognitive computing was integrated to the developed system. A case study is presented (e.g. epileptic crisis) with the problem definition and simulations. Results are also discussed. PMID:11518662

  5. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. ); Jackson, J.R. )

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  6. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hossain, Shamina S.

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  7. The use of fuzzy control system methods for characterizing expert judgment uncertainty distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.E.; Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Parkinson, W.J.; Meyer, M.A.; Jamshidi, M.

    1998-12-01

    Fuzzy logic methods permit experts to assess parameters affecting performance of components/systems in natural language terms more familiar to them (e.g., high, good, etc.). Recognizing that there is a cost associated with obtaining more precise information, the authors particular interest is in cases where the relationship between the condition of the system and its performance is not well understood, especially for some sets of possible operating conditions, and where developing a better understanding is very difficult and/or expensive. The methods allow the experts to make use of the level of precision with which they understand the underlying process. The authors consider and compare various methods of formulating the process just described, with an application in reliability analysis where expert information forms a significant (if not sole) source of data for reliability analysis. The flow of information through the fuzzy-control-systems based analysis is studied using a simple, hypothetical problem which mimics the structure used to elicit expert information in Parse. They also characterize the effect of using progressively more refined information and examine the use of fuzzy-based methods as data pooling/fusion mechanisms.

  8. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  9. Liquid-Oxygen Expert System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jamieson, John R., Jr.; Delaune, Carl I.

    1988-01-01

    Complicated system monitored for equipment failures. Report summarizes structure, capabilities, and development history of Liquid-Oxygen Expert System (LES). Designed to detect immediately signs of trouble among measurements fed into current Launch Processing System (LPS). LES contains three elements: knowledge base, constraint mechanism, and diagnoser. Output of LES in form of written reports.

  10. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  11. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W.; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills. PMID:25206348

  12. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  13. Expert systems. Part 1

    SciTech Connect

    Dessey, R.E.

    1984-09-01

    It is now possible, under appropriate circumstances, to capture the skill of an expert in the form of computer software. Such ''expert systems'' are currently used by scientists to help them solve many problems. This overview of artificial intelligence explores what expert systems are, how they function, and examines their construction and maintenance. A working vocabulary and basic concepts of the area are introduced. 5 references, 2 figures.

  14. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  15. Beyond metformin: safety considerations in the decision-making process for selecting a second medication for type 2 diabetes management: reflections from a diabetes care editors' expert forum.

    PubMed

    Cefalu, William T; Buse, John B; Del Prato, Stefano; Home, Philip D; LeRoith, Derek; Nauck, Michael A; Raz, Itamar; Rosenstock, Julio; Riddle, Matthew C

    2014-09-01

    The trend toward personalized management of diabetes has focused attention on the differences among available pharmacological agents in terms of mechanisms of action, efficacy, and, most important, safety. Clinicians must select from these features to develop individualized therapy regimens. In June 2013, a nine-member Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to review safety evidence for six major diabetes drug classes: insulin, sulfonylureas (SUs), thiazolidinediones (TZDs), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. This article, an outgrowth of the forum, summarizes well-delineated and theoretical safety concerns related to these drug classes, as well as the panelists' opinions regarding their best use in patients with type 2 diabetes. All of the options appear to have reasonably wide safety margins when used appropriately. Those about which we know the most-metformin, SUs, insulin, and perhaps now also TZDs-are efficacious in most patients and can be placed into a basic initial algorithm. However, these agents leave some clinical needs unmet. Selecting next steps is a more formidable process involving newer agents that are understood less well and for which there are unresolved questions regarding risk versus benefit in certain populations. Choosing a specific agent is not as important as implementing some form of early intervention and advancing rapidly to some form of combination therapy as needed. When all options are relatively safe given the benefits they confer, therapeutic decision making must rely on a personalized approach, taking into account patients' clinical circumstances, phenotype, pathophysiological defects, preferences, abilities, and costs. PMID:25147257

  16. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-11-08

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - `expert elicitation.` This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal.

  17. EASy: Expert authorizations system

    SciTech Connect

    Altfeld, J.; Landon, D.F.; Daniels, C.J.

    1996-12-31

    Equifax Check Services provides retail merchants and other businesses with quality decisions concerning the acceptability. risk. or fraudulence of customer checks. The greatest percentage of these decisions are provided automatically through on-line links with point-of-sale terminals. When a transaction is suspect, a referral notice is generated directing the merchant to call one of Equifax Check Services` authorization centers for additional processing. This processing considers a wide variety of information unavailable through online processing, thereby giving consumers the greatest possible benefit of doubt prior to declining checks. These high-risk authorizations had historically been handled using a legacy mainframe system involving a high degree of manual intervention. Authorizations agents would complete a lengthy, rigorous training regimen, and be monitored as to their performance. Pursuit of service excellence caused Equifax, in conjunction with Brightware Corporation, to develop the Expert Authorization System (EASy), a rule-based solution for check authorizations that uses an innovative twist on a standard blackboard architecture. EASy was deployed and is used today by as many as 300 concurrent users. By encapsulating extensive domain knowledge, EASy has effectively eliminated authorization errors, provided consistent and replicable decisions, reduced elapsed time to a decision, and reduced the average agent training time from 4-6 weeks to 3 days.

  18. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert elicitation methodology is developed and applied to the real-world test case in order to provide a road map for the use of fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling applications.

  19. Expert Systems: A Tutorial.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yaghmai, N. Shahla; Maxin, Jacqueline A.

    1984-01-01

    Overview of expert systems (intelligent computer applications that use data, a knowledge base, and a control mechanism to solve problems) highlights history of expert systems; construction (human element, knowledge acquisition and learning, system architecture); limitations; issues and trends; and implications for information science. Thirty-three…

  20. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  1. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.

  2. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ``team`` of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.

  3. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  4. Ethical Expert Systems

    PubMed Central

    Victoroff, Michael S.

    1985-01-01

    The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

  5. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  6. Augmenting Usability: Cultural Elicitation in HCI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camara, Souleymane Boundaouda; Oyugi, Cecilia; Abdelnour-Nocera, José; Smith, Andy

    This paper offers context and culture elicitation in an inter-cultural and multi-disciplinary setting of ICT design. Localised usability evaluation (LUE) is augmented with a socio-technical evaluation tool (STEM) as a methodological approach to expose and address issues in a collaborative ICT design within the Village e-Science for Life (VeSeL) project in rural Kenya. The paper argues that designers need to locally identify context and culture in situ and further explicate their implications through the design process and at the global level. Stakeholders' context, culture, decisions, agendas, expectations, disciplines and requirements need to be locally identified and globally evaluated to ensure a fit for purpose solution.

  7. Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sary, Charisse; Gilstrap, Lewey; Hull, Larry G.

    1990-01-01

    The Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM) provides an approach to developing expert system software. Because of the uncertainty associated with this process, an element of risk is involved. ESDM is designed to address the issue of risk and to acquire the information needed for this purpose in an evolutionary manner. ESDM presents a life cycle in which a prototype evolves through five stages of development. Each stage consists of five steps, leading to a prototype for that stage. Development may proceed to a conventional development methodology (CDM) at any time if enough has been learned about the problem to write requirements. ESDM produces requirements so that a product may be built with a CDM. ESDM is considered preliminary because is has not yet been applied to actual projects. It has been retrospectively evaluated by comparing the methods used in two ongoing expert system development projects that did not explicitly choose to use this methodology but which provided useful insights into actual expert system development practices and problems.

  8. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

  9. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through…

  10. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  11. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  12. Transferring Knowledge: A Parallel between Teaching Chemical Engineering and Developing Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberge, P. R.

    1990-01-01

    Discussed are expert systems development and teaching, the representation and processing of knowledge, knowledge representation in chemical engineering, and expert systems in chemical engineering. The seven phases of expert system development are illustrated. (CW)

  13. Back-propagation learning in expert networks.

    PubMed

    Lacher, R C; Hruska, S I; Kuncicky, D C

    1992-01-01

    Expert networks are event-driven, acyclic networks of neural objects derived from expert systems. The neural objects process information through a nonlinear combining function that is different from, and more complex than, typical neural network node processors. The authors develop back-propagation learning for acyclic, event-driven networks in general and derive a specific algorithm for learning in EMYCIN-derived expert networks. The algorithm combines back-propagation learning with other features of expert networks, including calculation of gradients of the nonlinear combining functions and the hypercube nature of the knowledge space. It offers automation of the knowledge acquisition task for certainty factors, often the most difficult part of knowledge extraction. Results of testing the learning algorithm with a medium-scale (97-node) expert network are presented. PMID:18276406

  14. Safety organizations and experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandel, G.; Rubinstein, R. I.; Pinto, J. J.; Meschkow, S. Z.

    1977-01-01

    Handbook lists organizations and experts in specific, well defined areas of safety technology. Special emphasis is given to relevant safety information sources on aircraft fire hazards and aircraft interior flammability.

  15. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    PubMed

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research. PMID:17621416

  16. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall serve each other with a list of experts they intend to call as witnesses at the hearing...

  17. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall serve each other with a list of experts they intend to call as witnesses at the hearing...

  18. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall serve each other with a list of experts they intend to call as witnesses at the hearing...

  19. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall serve each other with a list of experts they intend to call as witnesses at the hearing...

  20. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall serve each other with a list of experts they intend to call as witnesses at the hearing...

  1. A human resource planning model for hospital/medical technologists: an analytic hierarchy process approach.

    PubMed

    Kwak, N K; McCarthy, K J; Parker, G E

    1997-06-01

    This paper deals with the development of a human resource planning (HRP) model for hospital laboratory personnel. External and organizational factors impacting the demand and supply of clinical laboratory personnel in an urban academic health center are identified by a Delphi process. These factors are structured into a hierarchy for the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Computer software, Expert Choice, was used in model hierarchy development and judgmental elicitation process. The model result can be applicable to eliciting the perceptions, insights, and understanding of health-care decision-makers for strategic human resource planning. PMID:9408824

  2. Photo-Elicitation and Visual Semiotics: A Unique Methodology for Studying Inclusion for Children with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stockall, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    The methodology in this paper discusses the use of photographs as an elicitation strategy that can reveal the thinking processes of participants in a qualitatively rich manner. Photo-elicitation techniques combined with a Piercian semiotic perspective offer a unique method for creating a frame of action for later participant analysis. Illustrative

  3. Expert systems and ballistic range data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hathaway, Wayne; Steinhoff, Mark; Whyte, Robert; Brown, David; Choate, Jeff; Adelgren, Russ

    1992-07-01

    A program aimed at the development of an expert system for the reduction of ballistic range data is described. The program applies expert system and artificial intelligence techniques to develop a mathematically complex state-of-the-art spark range data reduction procedure that includes linear theory and six-degree-of-freedom analysis. The scope of the knowledge base includes both spin and statically stable vehicles. The expert system is expected to improve the quality of the data reduction process while reducing the work load on the senior range engineer.

  4. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component hasmore » degraded.« less

  5. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  6. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-10-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  7. Avionic expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golshani, Forouzan

    1988-01-01

    At the heart of any intelligent flight control system, there is a knowledge based expert system. The efficiency of these knowledge bases is one of the major factors in the success of aviation and space control systems. In the future, the speed and the capabilities of the expert system and their underlying data base(s) will be the limiting factors in the ability to build more accurate real time space controllers. A methodology is proposed for design and construction of such expert systems. It is noted that existing expert systems are inefficient (slow) in dealing with nontrivial real world situations that involve a vast collection of data. However, current data bases, which are fast in handling large amounts of data, cannot carry out intelligent tasks normally expected from an expert system. The system presented provides the power of deduction (reasoning) along with the efficient mechanisms for management of large data bases. In the system, both straight forward evaluation procedures and sophisticated inference mechanisms coexist. The design methodology is based on mathematics and logic, which ensures the correctness of the final product.

  8. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D.; Hand, Un Kyong |

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  9. Intelligent interfaces for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Villarreal, James A.; Wang, Lui

    1988-01-01

    Vital to the success of an expert system is an interface to the user which performs intelligently. A generic intelligent interface is being developed for expert systems. This intelligent interface was developed around the in-house developed Expert System for the Flight Analysis System (ESFAS). The Flight Analysis System (FAS) is comprised of 84 configuration controlled FORTRAN subroutines that are used in the preflight analysis of the space shuttle. In order to use FAS proficiently, a person must be knowledgeable in the areas of flight mechanics, the procedures involved in deploying a certain payload, and an overall understanding of the FAS. ESFAS, still in its developmental stage, is taking into account much of this knowledge. The generic intelligent interface involves the integration of a speech recognizer and synthesizer, a preparser, and a natural language parser to ESFAS. The speech recognizer being used is capable of recognizing 1000 words of connected speech. The natural language parser is a commercial software package which uses caseframe instantiation in processing the streams of words from the speech recognizer or the keyboard. The systems configuration is described along with capabilities and drawbacks.

  10. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--medical expert assessment from the viewpoint of the attorney].

    PubMed

    Dierks, C

    1996-11-01

    Dealing with a medical expert assessment requires experience and perseverance of the lawyer. Exact knowledge about the expert opinion itself and the procedural options is of greatest importance due to the decisive impact of the medical expert assessment on the outcome of the lawsuit. The lawyer has to consider at any time of the process whether he can initiate an expert assessment, whether he has to evaluate, criticize or question obtained expert assessments, whether he has to challenge the expert or possibly has to introduce another expert into the lawsuit. The expert witness has to have professional knowledge and the lawyer as well as the court have to absorb this knowledge and use it accordingly. PMID:9064931

  11. Ask an Expert.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trautman, Steve; Klein, Kate

    1993-01-01

    Offers guidelines for determining when and how to recruit subject matter experts (SMEs) and for ensuring that they deliver high quality training. Considers common problems of SMEs, such as giving too much information, conflicts with their job commitments, and stage fright. (JOW)

  12. Robot environment expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The Robot Environment Expert System uses a hexidecimal tree data structure to model a complex robot environment where not only the robot arm moves, but also the robot itself and other objects may move. The hextree model allows dynamic updating, collision avoidance and path planning over time, to avoid moving objects.

  13. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  14. Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and geology)

  15. Expert System Quality Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raggad, Bel Gacem

    1996-01-01

    A consultation quality control model (CQCM) developed for an expert system (ES) integrated both ES performance measures and end-user judgment values. Simple decision theory concepts were used to design the CQCM. Results show end users belong to different categories characterized by utility functions and the weights they assign to ES consultation…

  16. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  17. Expert system prototype of food aid distribution.

    PubMed

    Singh, Neeta

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to improve efficiency of the food aid distribution process of international food relief organizations. An overall objective of this study was to develop a prototype expert system for monitoring and evaluating food aid by international disaster relief organizations. The research identifies data related to monitoring and evaluation processes of various international food-aid organizations. It then applies an artificial intelligence-based expert system to develop a prototype for those processes. Existing data related to monitoring and evaluation program cycles were obtained. An expert system shell called CLIPS(c) (National Aeronautics Space Administration) was used to develop a prototype system named Food Aid Monitor, a rule-based expert system, which uses facts and heuristic rules to provide an adaptive feedback regarding monitoring and evaluating processes at various stages of food aid operation. The Food Aid Monitor was evaluated and validated by three expert panels checking the prototype system for completeness, relevancy, consistency, correctness, precision, and use-ability. Finally, the panels indicated a belief that the system could have an overall positive impact on the stages of monitoring and evaluating food aid processes of the food relief organizations. PMID:17392088

  18. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

    1998-03-30

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  19. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C., LLNL

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  20. A Simplified Method of Eliciting Information from Novices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brandt, D. Scott; Uden, Lorna

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the use of applied cognitive task analysis (ACTA) to interview novices and gain insight into their cognitive skills and processes. Focuses particularly on novice Internet searchers at the University of Staffordshire (United Kingdom) and reviews attempts to modify ACTA, which is intended to gather information from experts as part of…

  1. Quantifying experts' uncertainty about the future cost of exotic diseases.

    PubMed

    Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Mouat, David C; Sabirovic, Mirzet; Scanlan, Simon; Simmons, Alick

    2012-05-01

    Since the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak of 2001 in the United Kingdom, there has been debate about the sharing, between government and industry, both the costs of livestock disease outbreaks and responsibility for the decisions that give rise to them. As part of a consultation into the formation of a new body to manage livestock diseases, government veterinarians and economists produced estimates of the average annual costs for a number of exotic infectious diseases. In this article, we demonstrate how the government experts were helped to quantify their uncertainties about the cost estimates using formal expert elicitation techniques. This has enabled the decisionmakers to have a greater appreciation of government experts' uncertainty in this policy area. PMID:22040512

  2. Make yourself an expert.

    PubMed

    Leonard, Dorothy; Barton, Gavin; Barton, Michelle

    2013-04-01

    Almost every organization has people it can't do without--specialists with "deep smarts," who are the go-to experts on critical issues. But because their knowledge is experienced-based, it's often instinctive and unarticulated, and never gets passed on. Capturing it is a challenge for both the organization and for colleagues who wish to become in-house authorities themselves. This article offers a methodical system for acquiring deep smarts from an expert. It involves observing that person extensively to understand what makes him successful, practicing the behaviors he exhibits on your own, partnering with him to solve problems, and ultimately taking responsibility for some of his tasks. Describing the experiences of one executive as she takes this journey with a mentor, the authors show how you too can gain the wisdom that will make you indispensable to your firm. PMID:23593772

  3. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  4. Expert Script Generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sliwa, Nancy E.; Cooper, Eric G.

    1991-01-01

    Program provides additional level of interface to facilitate use of telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is software package automatically generating high-level task objective commands from complex menu-driven language of the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Laboratory (ISRL). Makes telerobotics laboratory accessible to researchers not familiar with comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with various systems of ISRL test bed. Incorporates expert-system technology to capture typical rules of operation that skilled operator uses. Result: operator interfact optimizing ability of system to perform task remotely in hazardous environment, in timely manner, and without undue stress to operator, while minimizing change for operator erros that damage equipment. Written in CLIPS.

  5. An Exploratory Study of Expert Group Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubel, Deborah J.; Kline, William B.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the results of a grounded theory exploration that described expert group leaders' experiences and perceptions during the process of leading groups in terms of influence of experience, preexisting knowledge and attitudes, and in-the-moment leadership process. The discussion presents implications for practice, counselor…

  6. An Exploratory Study of Expert Group Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubel, Deborah J.; Kline, William B.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the results of a grounded theory exploration that described expert group leaders' experiences and perceptions during the process of leading groups in terms of influence of experience, preexisting knowledge and attitudes, and in-the-moment leadership process. The discussion presents implications for practice, counselor

  7. ALICE Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, C.; Carena, F.

    2014-06-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period.

  8. Rational elicitation of cold-sensitive phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Baliga, Chetana; Majhi, Sandipan; Mondal, Kajari; Bhattacharjee, Antara; VijayRaghavan, K; Varadarajan, Raghavan

    2016-05-01

    Cold-sensitive phenotypes have helped us understand macromolecular assembly and biological phenomena, yet few attempts have been made to understand the basis of cold sensitivity or to elicit it by design. We report a method for rational design of cold-sensitive phenotypes. The method involves generation of partial loss-of-function mutants, at either buried or functional sites, coupled with selective overexpression strategies. The only essential input is amino acid sequence, although available structural information can be used as well. The method has been used to elicit cold-sensitive mutants of a variety of proteins, both monomeric and dimeric, and in multiple organisms, namely Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Drosophila melanogaster This simple, yet effective technique of inducing cold sensitivity eliminates the need for complex mutations and provides a plausible molecular mechanism for eliciting cold-sensitive phenotypes. PMID:27091994

  9. Using transcription machinery engineering to elicit complex cellular phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Lanza, Amanda M; Alper, Hal S

    2012-01-01

    Cellular hosts are widely used for the production of chemical compounds, including pharmaceutics, fuels, and specialty chemicals. However, common metabolic engineering techniques are limited in their capacity to elicit multigenic, complex phenotypes. These phenotypes can include non-pathway-based traits, such as tolerance and productivity. Global transcription machinery engineering (gTME) is a generic methodology for eliciting these complex cellular phenotypes. In gTME, dominant mutant alleles of a transcription-related protein are screened for their ability to reprogram cellular metabolism and regulation, resulting in a unique and desired phenotype. gTME has been successfully applied to both prokaryotic and eukaryotic systems, resulting in improved environmental tolerances, metabolite production, and substrate utilization. The underlying principle involves creating mutant libraries of transcription factors, screening for a desired phenotype, and iterating the process in a directed evolution fashion. The successes of this approach and details for its implementation and application are described here. PMID:22083746

  10. [The expert patient: medical consequences].

    PubMed

    Nagel, G

    2006-12-01

    The expression expert patient appeared about ten years ago. It defines the role of patients who are actively involved in their disease management. Most clinical oncologists are challenged by expert patients. Patient's expertise and complementary medicine are closely linked. Physicians respecting expert patients have to find a positive attitude towards patient self aide concepts. The medical skill to manage expert patients is increasingly important and new tools are being developed for support. PMID:17213970

  11. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1986-01-01

    The article discusses the characteristics of expert systems (computer programs designed to replicate human expertise in a variety of areas), describes recently available expert system development tools, suggests applications within the field of special education, and reviews recent efforts to apply expert systems technology to special education…

  12. Evaluation of high-level waste pretreatment processes with an approximate reasoning model

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Agnew, S.F.

    1999-04-01

    The development of an approximate-reasoning (AR)-based model to analyze pretreatment options for high-level waste is presented. AR methods are used to emulate the processes used by experts in arriving at a judgment. In this paper, the authors first consider two specific issues in applying AR to the analysis of pretreatment options. They examine how to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence to infer the acceptability of a process result using the example of cesium content in low-level waste. They then demonstrate the use of simple physical models to structure expert elicitation and to produce inferences consistent with a problem involving waste particle size effects.

  13. The Principles of Designing an Expert System in Teaching Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salekhova, Lailya; Nurgaliev, Albert; Zaripova, Rinata; Khakimullina, Nailya

    2013-01-01

    This study reveals general didactic concepts of the Expert Systems (ES) development process in the educational area. The proof of concept is based on the example of teaching the 8th grade Algebra subject. The main contribution in this work is the implementation of innovative approaches in analysis and processing of data by expert system as well as…

  14. Overproduction timing errors in expert dancers.

    PubMed

    Minvielle-Moncla, Joëlle; Audiffren, Michel; Macar, Françoise; Vallet, Cécile

    2008-07-01

    The authors investigated how expert dancers achieve accurate timing under various conditions. They designed the conditions to interfere with the dancers' attention to time and to test the explanation of the interference effect provided in the attentional model of time processing. Participants were 17 expert contemporary dancers who performed a freely chosen duration while walking and executing a bilateral cyclic arm movement over a given distance. The dancers reproduced that duration in different situations of interference. The process yielded temporal overproductions, validating the attentional model and extending its application to expert populations engaged in complex motor situations. The finding that the greatest overproduction occurred in the transfer-with-improvisation condition suggests that improvisation within a time deadline requires specific training. PMID:18628106

  15. Knowledge elicitation techniques and application to nuclear plant maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, E. Kevin

    The new millennium has brought with it the opportunity of global trade which in turn requires the utmost in efficiency from each individual industry. This includes the nuclear power industry, a point which was emphasized when the electrical generation industry began to be de regulated across North America the late 1990s and re-emphasized when the northeast power grid of North America collapsed in the summer of 2003. This dissertation deals with reducing the cost of the maintenance function of Candu nuclear power plants and initiating a strong link between universities and the Canadian nuclear industry. Various forms of RCM (reliability-centred maintenance) have been the tools of choice in industry for improving the maintenance function during the last 20 years. In this project, pilot studies, conducted at Bruce Power between 1999 and 2005, and reported on in this dissertation, lay out a path to implement statistical improvements as the next step after RCM in reducing the cost of the maintenance. Elicitation protocols, designed for the age group being elicited, address the much-documented issue of a lack of data. Clear, graphical, inferential statistical interfaces are accentuated and developed to aid in building the teams required to implement the various methodologies and to help in achieving funding targets. Graphical analysis and Crow/AMSAA (army materials systems analysis activity) plots are developed and demonstrated from the point of view of justifying the expenditures of cost reduction efforts. This dissertation ultimately speaks to the great opportunity being presented by this approach at this time: of capturing the baby-boom generation's huge pool of knowledge before those people retire. It is expected that the protocols and procedures referenced here will have applicability across the many disciplines where collecting expert information from a similar age group is required.

  16. Auditory memory function in expert chess players

    PubMed Central

    Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. Methods: The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. Results: The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Conclusion: Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time. PMID:26793666

  17. Toward disaster-resilient cities: characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.

    PubMed

    Chang, Stephanie E; McDaniels, Timothy; Fox, Jana; Dhariwal, Rajan; Longstaff, Holly

    2014-03-01

    Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors. PMID:24152135

  18. Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts’ estimates

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Governments sometimes face important decisions in the absence of direct evidence. In these cases, expert elicitation methods can be used to quantify uncertainty. We report the results of an expert elicitation study regarding the likely impact on smoking rates in adults and children of plain packaging of tobacco products. Methods Thirty-three tobacco control experts were recruited from the UK (n = 14), Australasia (n = 12) and North America (n = 7). Experts’ estimates were individually elicited via telephone interviews, and then linearly pooled. Elicited estimates consisted of (1) the most likely, (2) the highest possible, and (3) the lowest possible value for the percentage of (a) adult smokers and (b) children trying smoking, two years after the introduction of plain packaging (all other things being constant) in a target country in the expert’s region of residence. Results The median estimate for the impact on adult smoking prevalence was a 1 percentage point decline (99% range 2.25 to 0), and for the percentage of children trying smoking was a 3 percentage point decline (99% range 6.1 to 0), the latter estimated impact being larger than the former (P < 0.001, sign test). There were no differences in either estimate by region (I2: Adults: 0; Children: 0) but there was considerable variability between experts’ estimates within regions (I2: Adults: 0.91; Children: 0.89). Conclusions In the absence of direct evidence for the impact of introducing plain packaging on smoking rates in adults and children, this study shows that tobacco control experts felt the most likely outcomes would be a reduction in smoking prevalence in adults, and a greater reduction in the numbers of children trying smoking, although there was substantial variability in the estimated size of these impacts. No experts judged an increase in smoking as a likely outcome. PMID:23302325

  19. Teaching Evaluations and Comments of Pre-Service Music Teachers regarding Expert and Novice Choral Conductors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Christopher M.; Price, Harry E.; Schroeder, Linda K.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to determine if pre-service music educators could discriminate between novice and expert choral directors irrespective of the proficiency of the choral ensemble. A secondary purpose was to compare study results elicited in the USA with those from participants in Europe, South America and Asia. Previous research…

  20. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling an dynamic replanning.

  1. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling and dynamic replanning.

  2. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential. PMID:24730171

  3. Differential diagnosis of allergic rhinitis and sinusitis an expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Creider, R.D.; Sundar Singh, P.S.

    1996-12-31

    Nasal congestion is a common problem for many people. It is a symptom of chronic sinusitis and also a characteristic of allergic rhinitis. Individuals frequently confuse sinusitis and allergic rhinitis. The expert system described below will diagnose the problem to be either rhinitis or sinusitis. In this paper we describe the expert system, the need for such an expert system and the process of developing the system.

  4. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods. PMID:27209791

  5. Novelty-elicited mismatch negativity in patients with schizophrenia on admission and discharge.

    PubMed Central

    Grzella, I; Müller, B W; Oades, R D; Bender, S; Schall, U; Zerbin, D; Wolstein, J; Sartory, G

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Given recent reports of differences between mismatch negativity (MMN) elicited by always novel sounds (novelty-elicited MMN) and that elicited by repeated rare deviants (conventional MMN), we investigated novelty-elicited MMN and P3a in patients with schizophrenia before and after a nonstandardized inpatient treatment. DESIGN: Electrophysiological and clinical assessment of patients on admission and discharge from hospital. Assessment of control subjects on 2 sessions. SETTING: Inpatient treatment in a psychiatric university hospital. SUBJECTS: 20 patients with schizophrenia and 21 healthy control subjects of similar age and sex. Selection of patients with first- to third-episode schizophrenia. OUTCOME MEASURES: Early and late component MMN amplitudes and latencies, P3a amplitudes and latencies, Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), Extrapyramidal Symptom Scale (EPS), Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS) and chlorpromazine equivalents. RESULTS: In patients with schizophrenia, novelty-elicited MMN was unimpaired on admission, and there was a statistically significant reduction of the late MMN component with treatment. Improvements in symptom expression were associated with increased latencies of the early MMN component. CONCLUSION: Results indicate differences in information processing between conventional and novelty-elicited MMN. Some components of the novelty-elicited MMN might be more state dependent than those of the conventional MMN. PMID:11394193

  6. Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

    1990-01-01

    We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

  7. The Elements Of Adaptive Neural Expert Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Healy, Michael J.

    1989-03-01

    The generalization properties of a class of neural architectures can be modelled mathematically. The model is a parallel predicate calculus based on pattern recognition and self-organization of long-term memory in a neural network. It may provide the basis for adaptive expert systems capable of inductive learning and rapid processing in a highly complex and changing environment.

  8. Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

    2003-01-01

    Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

  9. Applications of artificial intelligence and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    This book contains over 30 papers. Some of the titles are: operating systems for CD/ROM; the impact of optical storage technology on education; the future of expert systems in the financial services industry; the future of compact disk/DC-1 explosive ordinance disposal rendered safe information system; and will artificial intelligence improve computer based training (CBT) development process.

  10. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  11. Diagnostic expert system for scientific satellite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakatani, Ichiro; Hashimoto, Masashi; Nishigori, Naomi; Mizutani, Mitsue

    1993-10-01

    A newly developed diagnostic expert system for scientific satellites and its application to the geomagnetic tail observation satellite, GEOTAIL, launched in 1992, are described. The system, called ISACS (Intelligent Satellite Control Software), monitors and diagnoses the following satellite subsystems: power, thermal control, communication, attitude and orbit control, operation control and data processing, and scientific instruments. The expert system allows the operator in the control room to diagnose the satellite status easily and with a high level of expertise. Most of the necessary information for trouble diagnosis is automatically set by means of an on-line data feed system.

  12. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  13. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  14. Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements

    PubMed Central

    O’Leary, Rebecca A.; Low-Choy, Samantha; Fisher, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    When limited or no observed data are available, it is often useful to obtain expert knowledge about parameters of interest, including point estimates and the uncertainty around these values. However, it is vital to elicit this information appropriately in order to obtain valid estimates. This is particularly important when the experts’ uncertainty about these estimates is strongly skewed, for instance when their best estimate is the same as the lowest value they consider possible. Also this is important when interest is in the aggregation of elicited values. In this paper, we compare alternative distributions for describing such estimates. The distributions considered include the lognormal, mirror lognormal, Normal and scaled Beta. The case study presented here involves estimation of the number of species in coral reefs, which requires eliciting counts within broader taxonomic groups, with highly skewed uncertainty estimates. This paper shows substantial gain in using the scaled Beta distribution, compared with Normal or lognormal distributions. We demonstrate that, for this case study on counting species, applying the novel encoding methodology developed in this paper can facilitate the acquisition of more rigorous estimates of (hierarchical) count data and credible bounds. The approach can also be applied to the more general case of enumerating a sampling frame via elicitation. PMID:26517835

  15. An Expert Assistant for Computer Aided Parallelization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jost, Gabriele; Chun, Robert; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit

    2004-01-01

    The prototype implementation of an expert system was developed to assist the user in the computer aided parallelization process. The system interfaces to tools for automatic parallelization and performance analysis. By fusing static program structure information and dynamic performance analysis data the expert system can help the user to filter, correlate, and interpret the data gathered by the existing tools. Sections of the code that show poor performance and require further attention are rapidly identified and suggestions for improvements are presented to the user. In this paper we describe the components of the expert system and discuss its interface to the existing tools. We present a case study to demonstrate the successful use in full scale scientific applications.

  16. How expert advice influences decision making.

    PubMed

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor's opinion. This comparison, termed the "opinion difference", influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor's level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  17. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  18. The SIGNAL expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Struve, R.

    1996-12-31

    The SIGNAL insurance companies have developed an expert system for the support of its customer sales service. It was introduced at the end of 1993 and is currently used by approximately 500 customer service representatives. It involves a counseling system, which enables customer sales personnel to produce high-quality benefit analyses at the point of sale. It is not only an information system for the agent but involves the customer in an active role (through the implementation of sales talks, the conscious visualization of facts, the generation of natural language explanations etc.). Thus, the customer is not faced with a fait accompli but is actively involved in solving the problem. To meet these requirements, several Al techniques are used, as described further below. The application has increased sales efficiency, optimized customer contact time and decreased training requirements. The system is developed with KEE (and reimplemented in Allegro CL/PC) and runs on notebooks with 8 MB RAM.

  19. Expert System Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1989-01-01

    C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is a software shell for developing expert systems is designed to allow research and development of artificial intelligence on conventional computers. Originally developed by Johnson Space Center, it enables highly efficient pattern matching. A collection of conditions and actions to be taken if the conditions are met is built into a rule network. Additional pertinent facts are matched to the rule network. Using the program, E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. is monitoring chemical production machines; California Polytechnic State University is investigating artificial intelligence in computer aided design; Mentor Graphics has built a new Circuit Synthesis system, and Brooke and Brooke, a law firm, can determine which facts from a file are most important.

  20. The Content Validation and Resource Development For a Course in Materials and Processes of Industry Through the Use of NASA Experts at Norfolk State College. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobs, James A.

    In an effort to develop a course in materials and processes of industry at Norfolk State College using Barton Herrscher's model of systematic instruction, a group of 12 NASA-Langley Research Center's (NASA-LRC) research engineers and technicians were recruited. The group acted as consultants in validating the content of the course and aided in…

  1. Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

    1991-01-01

    Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

  2. Chain Graph Models to Elicit the Structure of a Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Stefanini, Federico M.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are possibly the most successful graphical models to build decision support systems. Building the structure of large networks is still a challenging task, but Bayesian methods are particularly suited to exploit experts' degree of belief in a quantitative way while learning the network structure from data. In this paper details are provided about how to build a prior distribution on the space of network structures by eliciting a chain graph model on structural reference features. Several structural features expected to be often useful during the elicitation are described. The statistical background needed to effectively use this approach is summarized, and some potential pitfalls are illustrated. Finally, a few seminal contributions from the literature are reformulated in terms of structural features. PMID:24688427

  3. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    L. J. Matthews; L. K. Burggraf; W. J. Reece

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling.

  4. Expert system to aid learning of new products for inspection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, John P.; Batchelor, Bruce G.; Broderick, S. R.; Lambert, Robin A.; Weeks, A. W.

    1992-03-01

    An expert system has been written in the Prolog language which enables a non-expert user to specify the method of manufacture and visual appearance of small decorated cakes. The expert system has been designed to be ergonomically acceptable to non-expert users. It formulates the inspection procedures necessary by relating the method of manufacture to the appearance of a product, and from this the image processing operations are generated in the form of a Prolog+ program. Such a method enables the system to inspect new and varied products without sacrificing the complexity and robustness of inspection.

  5. Deploying expert systems in Ada

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

    1989-01-01

    As the Department of Defense Ada mandate begins to be enforced actively, interest in deploying expert systems in Ada has increased. A prototype Ada based expert system tool is introduced called ART/Ada. This prototype was built to support research into the language and operational issues of expert systems in Ada. ART/Ada allows applications of a conventional expert system tool called ART-IM (Automated Reasoning Tool for Information Management) to be deployed in various Ada environments with efficient use of time and space. ART-IM, a C-based expert system tool, is used to generate Ada source code which is compiled and linked with an Ada base inference engine to produce an Ada executable image. ART/Ada will be used to implement several prototype expert systems for the Space Station Freedom Program testbeds.

  6. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koons, H. C.; Gorney, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    A microcomputer-based expert system is being developed at the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory to assist in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to address anomalies caused by surface charging, bulk charging, single event effects and total radiation dose. These effects depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local environment (which is highly variable), the satellite exposure time and the hardness of the circuits and components of the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instruments Personal Consultant Plus expert system shell. The completed expert system knowledge base will include 150 to 200 rules, as well as a spacecraft attributes database, an historical spacecraft anomalies database, and a space environment database which is updated in near real-time. Currently, the expert system is undergoing development and testing within the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory.

  7. Eyeglasses elicit effects similar to face-like perceptual expertise: evidence from the N170 response.

    PubMed

    Cao, Xiaohua; Yang, Qi; Hu, Fengpei

    2016-03-01

    Studies of event-related potentials show that the specific N170 response has become a stable electrophysiological hallmark of objects related to expertise in early perceptual processing. In the present study, we investigated whether eyeglasses can elicit N170 effects similar to those elicited by objects of expertise. Our results showed that the N170 response elicited by eyeglasses was larger than the response elicited by objects that do not generate perceptual expertise (e.g., houses). Importantly, we found that eyeglasses could produce a within-category N170 adaptation effect, similar to that produced in response to objects of expertise (e.g., faces). Our results have revealed for the first time that with a large amount of experience, eyeglasses could evoke the face-like N170 response, which suggested that eyeglasses may become an object of perceptual expertise to some human observers. PMID:26670904

  8. Auditory Evoked Fields Elicited by Spectral, Temporal, and Spectral–Temporal Changes in Human Cerebral Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Teismann, Henning; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Pantev, Christo

    2012-01-01

    Natural sounds contain complex spectral components, which are temporally modulated as time-varying signals. Recent studies have suggested that the auditory system encodes spectral and temporal sound information differently. However, it remains unresolved how the human brain processes sounds containing both spectral and temporal changes. In the present study, we investigated human auditory evoked responses elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral–temporal sound changes by means of magnetoencephalography. The auditory evoked responses elicited by the spectral–temporal change were very similar to those elicited by the spectral change, but those elicited by the temporal change were delayed by 30–50 ms and differed from the others in morphology. The results suggest that human brain responses corresponding to spectral sound changes precede those corresponding to temporal sound changes, even when the spectral and temporal changes occur simultaneously. PMID:22593751

  9. The Expert Mathematician. Revised. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    What Works Clearinghouse, 2006

    2006-01-01

    "The Expert Mathematician" is designed to help middle school students develop the thinking processes for mathematical applications and communication. A three-year program of instruction, "The Expert Mathematician" uses a software and consumable print materials package with 196 lessons that teach the "Logo" programming language. Each lesson ranges…

  10. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be

  11. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

  12. Epistemological Beliefs across Faculty Experts and Student Non-Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnard-Brak, Lucy; Lan, William

    2009-01-01

    The epistemological beliefs of non-experts or novices have been studied with some frequency, while the beliefs of experts as a comparison group have received little attention in research literature. The purpose of the current study was to examine whether the conceptual framework of epistemological beliefs may be considered statistically similar or…

  13. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  14. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub-task commands. This mechanism gives the operator the ability to build a task-hierarchy tree of increasingly powerful commands. ESG also provides automatic regeneration of scripts based on system knowledge of telerobotic environment updates. The commands generated by ESG may be displayed at the terminal screen and/or stored. ESG is implemented as a rule-based expert system written in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System). The system consists of a knowledge-base of task heuristics, a static (unchanged during execution) database which describes the physical features of objects, and a dynamic (may change as a result of task achievement) database which maintains changes in the environment. Capabilites are provided for adding new environmental objects and for modifying existing objects and configuration data. Options are available for interactively viewing both the static and dynamic attribute values of database items. Execution of the ESG may be suspended to allow access to system-level functions. ESG was implemented on a VAX 11/780 with the VMS 4.7 operating system using a VT100 compatible terminal. Its source code is 47% CLIPS and 53% C-language, with a memory requirement of approximately 205 KB. The program was developed in 1988.

  15. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process.

    PubMed

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  16. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process

    PubMed Central

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  17. An Expert Map of Gambling Risk Perception.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns. PMID:25060132

  18. Kinesiological motion expert system.

    PubMed

    Sands, W A

    1994-12-01

    Kinesiology builds on anatomical information by establishing which muscles contribute to human motion and to what extent. This 'body as machine' approach seeks to identify particular muscles as contractile 'engines'. The learning of muscular contributions to human motions based on long tables of origins, insertions, innervations, and actions is tedious and often incomplete based on author judgments of which muscles and motions to include. The kinesiological motion expert system (KMES) was developed so that students could easily select joints, actions, and tension types and receive computerized output listing the muscles that could contribute to the motion requested. In addition, a student can select a particular muscle and tension type and the program will return all of the motions that the selected muscle might contribute. The KMES was written in PDC Prolog and has a knowledge base of 1583 movements. Implementation of the KMES in kinesiology classes resulted in an increase in average student final scores of approximately 15% (F(3,190) = 12.11, P < 0.0001). PMID:7736728

  19. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  20. Communicator Credibility: Trustworthiness Defeats Expertness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lui, Louisa; Standing, Lionel

    1989-01-01

    Compared credibility of highly trustworthy communicator with that of an expert by using nuns (N=36) who listened to the same persuasive message about Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome presented as either a trustworthy source (priest), an expert (doctor), or a neutral source. Found trustworthy communicator was regarded as significantly more…

  1. Expertise in Teaching: Expert Pedagogues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavely, Carolyn; And Others

    "The purpose of this article is to report a review of the developing empirical literature to explain "expert" teacher behavior, by analogy, from the cognitive psychology expertise literature. Emphasized is a review of the expert-novice cognitive psychology literature, encompassing the research on: chess, and other games; physics, medicine, and

  2. Expert Systems and Medical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Educational Researcher, 1988

    1988-01-01

    Expert systems are computerized databases that can diagnose and recommend treatment for persons who are ill. The database contains information on more than 7,600 diseases generated from exhaustive questioning of experts. These systems supplement human expertise but do not replace the good teaching of physicians. (VM)

  3. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of expert…

  4. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  5. Engineering monitoring expert system's developer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1991-01-01

    This research project is designed to apply artificial intelligence technology including expert systems, dynamic interface of neural networks, and hypertext to construct an expert system developer. The developer environment is specifically suited to building expert systems which monitor the performance of ground support equipment for propulsion systems and testing facilities. The expert system developer, through the use of a graphics interface and a rule network, will be transparent to the user during rule constructing and data scanning of the knowledge base. The project will result in a software system that allows its user to build specific monitoring type expert systems which monitor various equipments used for propulsion systems or ground testing facilities and accrues system performance information in a dynamic knowledge base.

  6. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koons, Harry C.; Groney, David J.

    1994-02-01

    An expert system has been developed by The Aerospace Corporation, Space and Environment Technology Center for use in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to determine the probable cause of an anomaly from the following candidates: surface charging, bulk charging, single-event effects, total radiation dose, and space-plasma effects. Such anomalies depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local plasma and radiation environment (which is highly variable), the satellite-exposure time, and the hardness of the circuits and components in the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instrument's Personal Consultant Plus expert-system shell. The expert system's knowledgebase includes about 200 rules, as well as a number of databases that contain information on spacecraft and their orbits, previous spacecraft anomalies, and the environment.

  7. Cognitive resources of physics experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Darrick C.

    One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.

  8. Antagonist-Elicited Cannabis Withdrawal in Humans

    PubMed Central

    Gorelick, David A.; Goodwin, Robert S.; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M.; Darwin, William D.; Kelly, Deanna L.; McMahon, Robert P.; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A.

    2013-01-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40–120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0–8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses. PMID:21869692

  9. Antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal in humans.

    PubMed

    Gorelick, David A; Goodwin, Robert S; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M; Darwin, William D; Kelly, Deanna L; McMahon, Robert P; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2011-10-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40-120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0-8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses. PMID:21869692

  10. Eliciting promises from children reduces cheating.

    PubMed

    Heyman, Gail D; Fu, Genyue; Lin, Jianyan; Qian, Miao K; Lee, Kang

    2015-11-01

    Widespread cheating can undermine rules that are necessary for maintaining social order. Preventing cheating can be a challenge, especially with regard to children, who as a result of their limited executive function skills may have particular difficulty with resisting temptation to cheat. We examined one approach designed to help children resist this temptation: eliciting a verbal commitment to not cheat. We tested 4- to 7-year-olds (total N = 330) and found that starting at 5 years of age, a verbal commitment to not cheat led to a substantial reduction in cheating. The results suggest that verbal commitments can be used to help children overcome temptations and comply with rules. PMID:26074407

  11. Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

    1988-01-01

    Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

  12. An expert system for determining Medicaid eligibility.

    PubMed

    Sear, A M

    1988-10-01

    The eligibility requirements for AFDC Medicaid are so extensive and complicated that most health care providers do not attempt to ascertain whether or not a particular patient is eligible for the program, even when no other source of payment is available. This results in lost revenue for health service providers nationwide amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Computer technology, in the form of expert systems, offers an opportunity to rationalize the Medicaid eligibility determination process and to do real-time assessments of patient eligibility. This article presents an expert system called MEDELEX (MEdicaid ELigibility EXpert) for determining Medicaid eligibility. The program (when run on an 8 MHz MS-DOS microcomputer with at least 640 KB of RAM) requires about 20 min for data entry and 5 sec for the actual eligibility determination. The expert system was written in Prolog and has been designed in such a way that it can be readily modified to take into account the state-to-state variability in eligibility requirements for AFDC Medicaid. PMID:3068326

  13. Being an expert witness in geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Edward A.

    2015-02-01

    Gathering your own data and coming to your own conclusion through scientific research and discovery is the most important principle to remember when being an expert witness in geomorphology. You can only be questioned in deposition and trial in your area of expertise. You are qualified as an expert by education, knowledge, and experience. You will have absolutely nothing to fear from cross-examination if you are prepared and confident about your work. Being an expert witness requires good communication skills. When you make a presentation, speak clearly and avoid jargon, especially when addressing a jury. Keep in mind that when you take on a case that may eventually go to court as a lawsuit, the entire process, with appeals and so forth, can take several years. Therefore, being an expert may become a long-term commitment of your time and energy. You may be hired by either side in a dispute, but your job is the same - determine the scientific basis of the case and explain your scientific reasoning to the lawyers, the judge, and the jury. Your work, including pre-trial investigations, often determines what the case will be based on. The use of science in the discovery part of an investigation is demonstrated from a California case involving the Ventura River, where building of a flood control levee restricted flow to a narrower channel, increasing unit stream power as well as potential for bank erosion and landsliding.

  14. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the right way. All citizens of the EU may benefit using the best practice. PMID:24834138

  15. Expert system for control of anaerobic digesters.

    PubMed

    Pullammanappallil, P C; Svoronos, S A; Chynoweth, D P; Lyberatos, G

    1998-04-01

    Continuous anaerobic digesters are systems that present challenging control problems including the possibility that an unmeasured disturbance can change the sign of the steady-state process gain. An expert system is developed that recognizes changes in the sign of process gain and implements appropriate control laws. The sole on-line measured variable is the methane production rate, and the manipulated input is the dilution rate. The expert system changes the dilution rate according to one of four possible strategies: a constrained conventional set-point control law, a constant yield control law (CYCL) that is nearly optimal for the most common cause of change in the sign of the process gain, batch operation, or constant dilution rate. The algorithm uses a t test for determining when to switch to the CYCL and returns to the conventional set-point control law with bumpless transfer. The expert system has proved successful in several experimental tests: severe overload; mild, moderate, and severe underload; and addition of phenol in low and high levels. Phenol is an inhibitor that in high concentrations changes the sign of the process gain. PMID:10099257

  16. Isolated sleep paralysis elicited by sleep interruption.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, T; Miyasita, A; Sasaki, Y; Inugami, M; Fukuda, K

    1992-06-01

    We elicited isolated sleep paralysis (ISP) from normal subjects by a nocturnal sleep interruption schedule. On four experimental nights, 16 subjects had their sleep interrupted for 60 minutes by forced awakening at the time when 40 minutes of nonrapid eye movement (NREM) sleep had elapsed from the termination of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep in the first or third sleep cycle. This schedule produced a sleep onset REM period (SOREMP) after the interruption at a high rate of 71.9%. We succeeded in eliciting six episodes of ISP in the sleep interruptions performed (9.4%). All episodes of ISP except one occurred from SOREMP, indicating a close correlation between ISP and SOREMP. We recorded verbal reports about ISP experiences and recorded the polysomnogram (PSG) during ISP. All of the subjects with ISP experienced inability to move and were simultaneously aware of lying in the laboratory. All but one reported auditory/visual hallucinations and unpleasant emotions. PSG recordings during ISP were characterized by a REM/W stage dissociated state, i.e. abundant alpha electroencephalographs and persistence of muscle atonia shown by the tonic electromyogram. Judging from the PSG recordings, ISP differs from other dissociated states such as lucid dreaming, nocturnal panic attacks and REM sleep behavior disorders. We compare some of the sleep variables between ISP and non-ISP nights. We also discuss the similarities and differences between ISP and sleep paralysis in narcolepsy. PMID:1621022

  17. Minimum eliciting patch test concentration of thimerosal.

    PubMed

    Lisi, P; Perno, P; Ottaviani, M; Morelli, P

    1991-01-01

    Positive patch test reactions to thimerosal 0.1% pet. (40/690 subjects: 5.8%) were more common in younger age groups, in the allergic contact dermatitis group and in subjects who had used contact lens solutions. In the 40 thimerosal-positive patients, the minimum eliciting quantity of preservative was evaluated using different test concentrations: 0.05% and 0.01% pet. (patch testing) and 1:10,000 in saline (intradermal testing). Cross-reactions between thimerosal and other mercury compounds and sensitivity to thiosalicylic acid were also examined. The results of the investigation demonstrate that many of the reactions to 0.1% thimerosal are probably irritant, because only half the subjects studied had positive patch tests when allergen concentrations 5 to 10x lower than that conventionally used for patch testing, were utilized. In these subjects, the average strength of patch test reactions was higher, intradermal testing was more often positive and cross-reactions between mercurials more frequent. These data indicate that the optimal eliciting patch test concentration for studying thimerosal sensitivity is 0.05% pet. PMID:2044366

  18. An Expert Fault Diagnosis System for Vehicle Air Conditioning Product Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, C. F.; Tee, B. T.; Khalil, S. N.; Chen, W.; Rauterberg, G. W. M.

    2015-09-01

    The paper describes the development of the vehicle air-conditioning fault diagnosis system in automotive industries with expert system shell. The main aim of the research is to diagnose the problem of new vehicle air-conditioning system development process and select the most suitable solution to the problems. In the vehicle air-conditioning manufacturing industry, process can be very costly where an expert and experience personnel needed in certain circumstances. The expert of in the industry will retire or resign from time to time. When the expert is absent, their experience and knowledge is difficult to retrieve or lost forever. Expert system is a convenient method to replace expert. By replacing the expert with expert system, the accuracy of the processes will be increased compared to the conventional way. Therefore, the quality of product services that are produced will be finer and better. The inputs for the fault diagnosis are based on design data and experience of the engineer.

  19. An expert system for shuttle and satellite radar tracker scheduling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Paul

    1988-01-01

    This expert system automates and optimizes radar tracker selection for shuttle missions. The expert system is written in the FORTRAN and C languages on an HP9000. It is portable to any UNIX machine having both ANSI-77 FORTRAN and C language compilers. It is a rule based expert system that selects tracking stations from the S-band and C-band radar stations and the TDRSS east and TDRSS west satellites under a variety of conditions. The expert system was prototyped on the Symbolics in the Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) and ZetaLisp. After the prototype demonstrated an acceptable automation of the process of selecting tracking stations to support the orbit determination requirements of Shuttle missions, the basic ART rules of the prototype were ported to the HP9000 computer using the CLIPS language. CLIPS is a forward-chaining rule-based expert system language written in C. Prior to the development of this expert system the selection process was a tedious manual process and expensive in terms of human resources. Manual tracking station selection required from 1 to 2 man weeks per mission; whereas the expert system can complete the selection process in about 2 hours.

  20. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment. (a) Expert judgment, by an individual expert or panel of experts, may be used... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Expert judgment. 194.26 Section...

  1. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment. (a) Expert judgment, by an individual expert or panel of experts, may be used... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Expert judgment. 194.26 Section...

  2. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment. (a) Expert judgment, by an individual expert or panel of experts, may be used... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Expert judgment. 194.26 Section...

  3. Using Expert System Job Aids: A Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carr, Clay

    1989-01-01

    Explains how current commercial expert system technology can be used to create useful job aids. Expert systems are defined, situations in which an expert system job aid will be most effective are described, expert system shells are discussed, and three commercial expert system products are described. (LRW)

  4. Spacecraft command and control using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norcross, Scott; Grieser, William H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a product called the Intelligent Mission Toolkit (IMT), which was created to meet the changing demands of the spacecraft command and control market. IMT is a command and control system built upon an expert system. Its primary functions are to send commands to the spacecraft and process telemetry data received from the spacecraft. It also controls the ground equipment used to support the system, such as encryption gear, and telemetry front-end equipment. Add-on modules allow IMT to control antennas and antenna interface equipment. The design philosophy for IMT is to utilize available commercial products wherever possible. IMT utilizes Gensym's G2 Real-time Expert System as the core of the system. G2 is responsible for overall system control, spacecraft commanding control, and spacecraft telemetry analysis and display. Other commercial products incorporated into IMT include the SYBASE relational database management system and Loral Test and Integration Systems' System 500 for telemetry front-end processing.

  5. An expert system for preliminary optical design.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moss, G. H.

    1989-04-01

    An expert system has been developed which will undertake the preliminary design of optical systems. During the preliminary design the optical designer considers the specification of an optical system and derives parameters such as lens type, focal length, etc. These parameters are then converted into power group layouts with curvatures, thicknesses, etc ready for optimisation by lens design software. The preliminary design will have been arrived at by utilising previous design knowledge and 'rules of thumb' acquired through experience. It is this stage of the design process which has been implemented by an expert system, and will hopefully prove a valuable aid to the optical designer during the important creative stage of the design process.

  6. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  7. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  8. The making of expert clinicians: reflective practice.

    PubMed

    Maestre, J M; Szyld, D; Del Moral, I; Ortiz, G; Rudolph, J W

    2014-05-01

    Debriefing is a rigorous reflection process which helps trainees recognize and resolve clinical and behavioral dilemmas raised by a clinical case. This approach emphasizes eliciting trainees'assumptions about the situation and their reasons for performing as they did (mental models). It analyses their impact on actions, to understand if it is necessary to maintain them or construct new ones that may lead to better performance in the future. It blends evidence and theory from education research, the social and cognitive sciences, and experience drawn from conducting and teaching debriefing to clinicians worldwide, on how to improve professional effectiveness through "reflective practice". PMID:24439667

  9. Using expert systems to analyze ATE data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harrington, Jim

    1994-01-01

    The proliferation of automatic test equipment (ATE) is resulting in the generation of large amounts of component data. Some of this component data is not accurate due to the presence of noise. Analyzing this data requires the use of new techniques. This paper describes the process of developing an expert system to analyze ATE data and provides an example rule in the CLIPS language for analyzing trip thresholds for high gain/high speed comparators.

  10. Expert system modeling of a vision system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reihani, Kamran; Thompson, Wiley E.

    1992-05-01

    The proposed artificial intelligence-based vision model incorporates natural recognition processes depicted as a visual pyramid and hierarchical representation of objects in the database. The visual pyramid, with based and apex representing pixels and image, respectively, is used as an analogy for a vision system. This paper provides an overview of recognition activities and states in the framework of an inductive model. Also, it presents a natural vision system and a counterpart expert system model that incorporates the described operations.

  11. Epigenetic mechanisms elicited by nutrition in early life.

    PubMed

    Canani, Roberto Berni; Costanzo, Margherita Di; Leone, Ludovica; Bedogni, Giorgio; Brambilla, Paolo; Cianfarani, Stefano; Nobili, Valerio; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Agostoni, Carlo

    2011-12-01

    A growing number of studies focusing on the developmental origin of health and disease hypothesis have identified links among early nutrition, epigenetic processes and diseases also in later life. Different epigenetic mechanisms are elicited by dietary factors in early critical developmental ages that are able to affect the susceptibility to several diseases in adulthood. The studies here reviewed suggest that maternal and neonatal diet may have long-lasting effects in the development of non-communicable chronic adulthood diseases, in particular the components of the so-called metabolic syndrome, such as insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, obesity, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and CVD. Both maternal under- and over-nutrition may regulate the expression of genes involved in lipid and carbohydrate metabolism. Early postnatal nutrition may also represent a vital determinant of adult health by making an impact on the development and function of gut microbiota. An inadequate gut microbiota composition and function in early life seems to account for the deviant programming of later immunity and overall health status. In this regard probiotics, which have the potential to restore the intestinal microbiota balance, may be effective in preventing the development of chronic immune-mediated diseases. More recently, the epigenetic mechanisms elicited by probiotics through the production of SCFA are hypothesised to be the key to understand how they mediate their numerous health-promoting effects from the gut to the peripheral tissues. PMID:22008232

  12. Alarm calls elicit predator-specific physiological responses

    PubMed Central

    Mateo, Jill M.

    2010-01-01

    Glucocorticoids regulate glucose concentrations and responses to unpredictable events, while also modulating cognition. Juvenile Belding's ground squirrels (Urocitellus beldingi) learn to respond to whistle and trill alarm calls, warning of aerial and terrestrial predators, respectively, shortly after emerging from natal burrows at one month of age. Alarm calls can cause physiological reactions and arousal, and this arousal, coupled with watching adult responses, might help juveniles learn associations between calls and behavioural responses. I studied whether young show differential cortisol responses to alarm and non-alarm calls, using playbacks of U. beldingi whistles, trills, squeals (a conspecific control vocalization) and silent controls. Trills elicited very high cortisol responses, and, using an individual's response to the silent control as baseline, only their response to a trill was significantly higher than baseline. This cortisol increase would provide glucose for extended vigilance and escape efforts, which is appropriate for evading terrestrial predators which hunt for long periods. Although whistles do not elicit a cortisol response, previous research has shown that they do result in bradycardia, which enhances attention and information processing. This is a novel demonstration of two physiological responses to two alarm calls, each appropriate to the threats represented by the calls. PMID:20236965

  13. Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

    2014-10-01

    Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

  14. A software engineering approach to expert system design and verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bochsler, Daniel C.; Goodwin, Mary Ann

    1988-01-01

    Software engineering design and verification methods for developing expert systems are not yet well defined. Integration of expert system technology into software production environments will require effective software engineering methodologies to support the entire life cycle of expert systems. The software engineering methods used to design and verify an expert system, RENEX, is discussed. RENEX demonstrates autonomous rendezvous and proximity operations, including replanning trajectory events and subsystem fault detection, onboard a space vehicle during flight. The RENEX designers utilized a number of software engineering methodologies to deal with the complex problems inherent in this system. An overview is presented of the methods utilized. Details of the verification process receive special emphasis. The benefits and weaknesses of the methods for supporting the development life cycle of expert systems are evaluated, and recommendations are made based on the overall experiences with the methods.

  15. Development of an expert system-based object tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Homainejad, Amir S.

    1998-12-01

    This paper outlines an experience of development of an expert system. The necessity of an expert system which can recognize and track any dynamic object in the field of view a vision system, was the main reason of development of the expert system. For achieving the goals of an expert system, some priorities must be considered. Dialogue is the first priority and it should be understandable by program. Otherwise, if a small error is given to computer, it will result in a large failure of knowledge and the wrong processing. Another priority is the knowledge-base, and this includes the procedural and the declarative memories. The paper will explain the application of above priority in a project of real time object tracking. The obtained results of tracking were compared with the results of surveying intersection so that the ability of the expert system was tested.

  16. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    PubMed

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  17. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  18. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  19. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--stand for evaluating medical expert assessment].

    PubMed

    Kienzle, H F

    1996-11-01

    The standard for the assessment of the medical expert opinion is defined by the high demands expected from the judgement of a high court: Objectiveness, solid knowledge, self-criticism, in contestability in diction and firmness in the argumentation. From the legal point of view, the knowledge of the medical expert witness has to clearly go beyond the knowledge of his profession. The obligation for objectiveness is the basis of expert witness' activity. From the medical point of view, the physician has to take into account during the preparation of his expert assessment that structural deficiency of the personnel and surgical equipment of a department for surgery frequently plays a role due to the development of surgery to high tech medicine and the hospital physician cannot affect this. It is necessary for a physician as an expert witness to have basic knowledge about the evidence law and the medical liability process. On the other hand, judges and lawyers should basically know the medical way of thinking. PMID:9064929

  20. ELICIT: An alternative imprecise weight elicitation technique for use in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare

    PubMed Central

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Sanogo, Vassiki; Moussa, Kouame Richard

    2015-01-01

    Objective In this paper, the readers are introduced to ELICIT, an imprecise weight elicitation technique for multicriteria decision analysis for healthcare. Methods The application of ELICIT consists of two steps: the rank ordering of evaluation criteria based on decision-makers’ (DMs) preferences using the principal component analysis; and the estimation of criteria weights and their descriptive statistics using the variable interdependent analysis and the Monte Carlo method. The application of ELICIT is illustrated with a hypothetical case study involving the elicitation of weights for five criteria used to select the best device for eye surgery. Results The criteria were ranked from 1–5, based on a strict preference relationship established by the DMs. For each criterion, the deterministic weight was estimated as well as the standard deviation and 95% credibility interval. Conclusions ELICIT is appropriate in situations where only ordinal DMs’ preferences are available to elicit decision criteria weights. PMID:26361235

  1. Adding Multiple Exposure Planning and Expert System Technology in the Scientist's Expert Assistant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolf, K. R.

    Over the past year and a half, the Scientist's Expert Assistant Team from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and the Space Telescope Science Institute has been prototyping visual and expert system tools to support General Observer proposal development for the Hubble Space Telescope and the Next Generation Space Telescope. A year ago at ADASS '98 (Koratkar & Grosvenor 1999) the SEA team demonstrated SEA's Java-based visual target tuning and exposure calculation capabilities. At that time, SEA supported only a single exposure. Since then the team has been focusing on visit and orbit planning. We added a graphical orbit planning tool and a rule-based assistant to help determine dithering patterns. This paper describes our approach to multiple exposure planning and expert system use within the SEA. The techniques used (both visual and rule-based) and the lessons learned in the process are also discussed.

  2. Genetic algorithm testbed for expert system testing. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Roache, E.

    1996-01-01

    In recent years, the electric utility industry has developed advisory and control software that makes use of expert system technology. The validation of the underlying knowledge representation in these expert systems is critical to their success. Most expert systems currently deployed have been validated by certifying that the expert system provides appropriate conclusions for specific test cases. While this type of testing is important, it does not test cases where unexpected inputs are presented to the expert system and potential errors are exposed. Exhaustive testing is not typically an option due to the complexity of the knowledge representation and the combinatorial effects associated with checking all possible inputs through all possible execution paths. Genetic algorithms are general purpose search techniques modeled on natural adaptive systems and selective breeding methods. Genetic algorithms have been used successfully for parameter optimization and efficient search. The goal of this project was to confirm or reject the hypothesis that genetic algorithms (GAs) are useful in expert system validation. The GA system specifically targeted errors in the study`s expert system that would be exposed by unexpected input cases. The GA system found errors in the expert system and the hypothesis was confirmed. This report describes the process and results of the project.

  3. Parasympathetic Stimulation Elicits Cerebral Vasodilatation in Rat

    PubMed Central

    Talman, William T.; Corr, Julie; Dragon, Deidre Nitschke; Wang, DeQiang

    2010-01-01

    Forebrain arteries receive nitroxidergic input from parasympathetic ganglionic fibers that arise from the pterygopalatine ganglia. Previous studies have shown that ganglionic stimulation in some species led to cerebral vasodilatation while interruption of those fibers interfered with vasodilatation seen during acute hypertension. Because the ganglionic fibers are quite delicate and are easily damaged when the ganglia are approached with published techniques we sought to develop a method that allowed clear exposure of the ganglia and permitted demonstration of cerebral vasodilatation with electrical stimulation of the ganglia in the rat. We had found that an orbital approach during which the eye was retracted for visualization of the ganglion precluded eliciting vasodilatation with ganglionic stimulation. In the current study approaching the ganglion through an incision over the zygomatic arch provided clear exposure of the ganglion and stimulation of the ganglion with that approach led to vasodilatation. PMID:17275420

  4. Expert Systems: Concepts and Applications. Advances in Library Information Technology, Issue Number 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenly, Charles; Harris, Howard

    The Processing Services department of the Library of Congress initiated a project to learn about expert systems technology and to examine potential applications of expert systems to functions in their department, e.g., acquisitions, cataloging, and serials control. (An expert system is defined as an artificial intelligence computer program which…

  5. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules in decision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  6. Rhetorical Consequences of the Computer Society: Expert Systems and Human Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skopec, Eric Wm.

    Expert systems are computer programs that solve selected problems by modelling domain-specific behaviors of human experts. These computer programs typically consist of an input/output system that feeds data into the computer and retrieves advice, an inference system using the reasoning and heuristic processes of human experts, and a knowledge…

  7. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules indecision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  8. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Rutherford, Edward S; Zhang, Hongyan; Mason, Doran M; Lodge, David M

    2015-02-01

    Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance-based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision-support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available. PMID:25132396

  9. A knowledge based expert system for turbomachinery

    SciTech Connect

    Kubiak, J.A.; Rivera-Grijalva, J.J.

    1994-12-31

    This paper describes the development of an Expert system for identification of turbomachinery faults caused by an increase in the vibrations of the rotor bearing system. The organization of the expert system is based on the known vibration patterns constructed from four distinctive vibration parameters: amplitude, frequency, phase angle and waveform. Each of the parameters can lead to a different set of faults. When all four sets of possible faults are overlapped during the selection process, which is automatically carried out, the number of possible faults is reduced to one or two. All the possible causes of increment of vibration can be detected with a high degree of probability. The system is used off-line and can be installed on-line with a monitoring system. The knowledge levels and the separate bases are built into the system.

  10. The Expert Project Management System (EPMS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty

    1986-01-01

    Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.

  11. Multiple neural network approaches to clinical expert systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stubbs, Derek F.

    1990-08-01

    We briefly review the concept of computer aided medical diagnosis and more extensively review the the existing literature on neural network applications in the field. Neural networks can function as simple expert systems for diagnosis or prognosis. Using a public database we develop a neural network for the diagnosis of a major presenting symptom while discussing the development process and possible approaches. MEDICAL EXPERTS SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DIAGNOSIS Biomedicine is an incredibly diverse and multidisciplinary field and it is not surprising that neural networks with their many applications are finding more and more applications in the highly non-linear field of biomedicine. I want to concentrate on neural networks as medical expert systems for clinical diagnosis or prognosis. Expert Systems started out as a set of computerized " ifthen" rules. Everything was reduced to boolean logic and the promised land of computer experts was said to be in sight. It never came. Why? First the computer code explodes as the number of " ifs" increases. All the " ifs" have to interact. Second experts are not very good at reducing expertise to language. It turns out that experts recognize patterns and have non-verbal left-brain intuition decision processes. Third learning by example rather than learning by rule is the way natural brains works and making computers work by rule-learning is hideously labor intensive. Neural networks can learn from example. They learn the results

  12. One versus many: capturing the use of multiple emotion regulation strategies in response to an emotion-eliciting stimulus.

    PubMed

    Aldao, Amelia; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan

    2013-01-01

    The past decade and a half has witnessed a renewed interest in the study of affective processes. James Gross' process model of emotion regulation has provided a theoretical framework for this approach. This model stipulates that individuals have a repertoire of emotion regulation strategies they use in order to modify their affect and/or the situations eliciting such affect. However, empirical investigations of the use of emotion regulation strategies have largely oversimplified this model by assuming that individuals use only one regulation strategy to manage the affect elicited by a given emotion-eliciting stimulus or situation. This is problematic because it has resulted in a limited understanding of the complex process by which individuals select and implement regulation strategies. In this brief report, we present findings suggesting that people spontaneously use multiple emotion regulation strategies in response to a brief disgust-eliciting film clip. We discuss implications for future empirical work on emotion regulation strategies. PMID:23130665

  13. Expert operator's associate: An expert system for spacecraft control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, Mogens; Grue, Klaus; Olalainty, Bernard; Lecouat, Francois; Wheadon, Joe

    1990-10-01

    The Expert Operator's Associate (EOA) project which studies the applicability of expert systems for day to day space operations is described. A prototype expert system is developed, which operates together with an existing spacecraft control system at the European Space Operations Center and functions as an operator's assistant in controlling satellites. The prototype is demonstrated using an existing real-time simulation model of the MARECS-B2 spacecraft. By developing a prototype system the reliability and effectiveness of operations that can be enhanced by such means are investigated. Questions of acquisition and representation of knowledge for such systems, and the feasibility of migration of some (currently) groundbased functions into future spaceborne autonomous systems are discussed.

  14. Ontological leveling and elicitation for complex industrial transactions

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, L.R.; Goldsmith, S.Y.; Spires, S.V.

    1998-11-01

    The authors present an agent-oriented mechanism that uses a central ontology as a means to conduct complex distributed transactions. This is done by instantiating a template object motivated solely by the ontology, then automatically and explicitly linking each temple element to an independently constructed interface component. Validation information is attached directly to the links so that the agent need not know a priori the semantics of data validity, merely how to execute a general validation process to satisfy the conditions given in the link. Ontological leveling is critical: all terms presented to informants must be semantically coherent within the central ontology. To illustrate this approach in an industrial setting, they discuss an existing implementation that conducted international commercial transactions on the World-Wide Web. Agents operating within a federated architecture construct, populate by Web-based elicitation, and manipulate a distributed composite transaction object to effect transport of goods over the US/Mexico border.

  15. Transcranial magnetic stimulation elicits coupled neural and hemodynamic consequences.

    PubMed

    Allen, Elena A; Pasley, Brian N; Duong, Thang; Freeman, Ralph D

    2007-09-28

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is an increasingly common technique used to selectively modify neural processing. However, application of TMS is limited by uncertainty concerning its physiological effects. We applied TMS to the cat visual cortex and evaluated the neural and hemodynamic consequences. Short TMS pulse trains elicited initial activation (approximately 1 minute) and prolonged suppression (5 to 10 minutes) of neural responses. Furthermore, TMS disrupted the temporal structure of activity by altering phase relationships between neural signals. Despite the complexity of this response, neural changes were faithfully reflected in hemodynamic signals; quantitative coupling was present over a range of stimulation parameters. These results demonstrate long-lasting neural responses to TMS and support the use of hemodynamic-based neuroimaging to effectively monitor these changes over time. PMID:17901333

  16. Eliciting symptoms interpreted as normal by patients with early-stage lung cancer: could GP elicitation of normalised symptoms reduce delay in diagnosis? Cross-sectional interview study

    PubMed Central

    Brindle, Lucy; Pope, Catherine; Corner, Jessica; Leydon, Geraldine; Banerjee, Anindo

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate why symptoms indicative of early-stage lung cancer (LC) were not presented to general practitioners (GPs) and how early symptoms might be better elicited within primary care. Design, setting and participants A qualitative cross-sectional interview study about symptoms and help-seeking in 20 patients from three south England counties, awaiting resection of LC (suspected or histologically confirmed). Analysis drew on principles of discourse analysis and constant comparison to identify processes involved in interpretation and communication about symptoms, and explain non-presentation. Results Most participants experienced health changes possibly indicative of LC which had not been presented during GP consultations. Symptoms that were episodic, or potentially caused by ageing or lifestyle, were frequently not presented to GPs. In interviews, open questions about health changes/symptoms in general did not elicit these symptoms; they only emerged in response to closed questions detailing specific changes in health. Questions using disease-related labels, for example, pain or breathlessness, were less likely to elicit symptoms than questions that used non-disease terminology, such as aches, discomfort or ‘getting out of breath’. Most participants described themselves as feeling well and were reluctant to associate potentially explained, non-specific or episodic symptoms with LC, even after diagnosis. Conclusions Patients with early LC are unlikely to present symptoms possibly indicative of LC that they associate with normal processes, when attending primary care before diagnosis. Faced with patients at high LC risk, GPs will need to actively elicit potential LC symptoms not presented by the patient. Closed questions using non-disease terminology might better elicit normalised symptoms. PMID:23166137

  17. Parallelism in backward-chained expert systems - Experimental results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Lawrence O.

    1990-01-01

    There are many applications which may be done by an expert system in real time, if the system is capable of real-time response. The LISP and PROLOG-based expert systems have typically been too slow for real-time response. This has led to an effort to use other languages, the development of fast pattern matching techniques and other methods of improving the speed of expert systems. Another approach to developing faster expert systems is to make use of the emerging parallel processing computer technology. A further use for parallelism is to allow reasonable response time for large knowledge bases. The size of knowledge bases may become as large as 20,000 chunks of knowledge (and more) in the near future in medical and space applications. This paper describes the use of parallel processing in the EMYCIN backward chained rule-based model.

  18. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime

  19. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

  20. The linguistic construction of expert identity in professor-student discussions of science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, Alandeom W.; Sadler, Troy D.; Suslak, Daniel F.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines how participation in a verbal exchange during an inquiry-based classroom activity allows three college students and their science instructor to use linguistic signs (choices of words, grammatical structures, discursive structures, prosody and poetic discourse) to construct authority and expertise. Our work explores linguistic and interactional processes of identification (the dynamic construction and transaction of expert identity) and examines how discursive strategies adopted by the professor at different moments of the verbal exchange influence the students' subsequent discursive practices and perceptions of authority. We adopt a dialogic, socio-constructivist perspective on identity, viewing personal identities as being partially constructed via interactional positioning. Our findings reveal that the attainment of expertise involves two different types of language-mediated processes: the transmission of a professional vision or intension and the emergence of a perception of agency among students. The former is centered on referential-denotative meanings of speech (elicitation of standard account and operational definition) while the latter requires effective use of pragmatic-performative functions of speech (non-evaluative and more than minimal recipient practices). Consideration is given to the need for science instructors to be able to utilize pragmatic functions of language strategically to encourage students to position themselves within the identity of science expertise.

  1. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. PMID:23062586

  2. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  3. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  4. An expert system based intelligent control scheme for space bioreactors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    San, Ka-Yiu

    1988-01-01

    An expert system based intelligent control scheme is being developed for the effective control and full automation of bioreactor systems in space. The scheme developed will have the capability to capture information from various resources including heuristic information from process researchers and operators. The knowledge base of the expert system should contain enough expertise to perform on-line system identification and thus be able to adapt the controllers accordingly with minimal human supervision.

  5. The making of an expert.

    PubMed

    Ericsson, K Anders; Prietula, Michael J; Cokely, Edward T

    2007-01-01

    Popular lore tells us that genius is born, not made. Scientific research, on the other hand, reveals that true expertise is mainly the product of years of intense practice and dedicated coaching. Ordinary practice is not enough: To reach elite levels of performance, you need to constantly push yourself beyond your abilities and comfort level. Such discipline is the key to becoming an expert in all domains, including management and leadership. Those are the conclusions reached by Ericsson, a professor of psychology at Florida State University; Prietula, a professor at the Goizueta Business School; and Cokely, a research fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, who together studied data on the behavior of experts, gathered by more than 100 scientists. What consistently distinguished elite surgeons, chess players, writers, athletes, pianists, and other experts was the habit of engaging in "deliberate" practice--a sustained focus on tasks that they couldn't do before. Experts continually analyzed what they did wrong, adjusted their techniques, and worked arduously to correct their errors. Even such traits as charisma can be developed using this technique. Working with a drama school, the authors created a set of acting exercises for managers that remarkably enhanced executives' powers of charm and persuasion. Through deliberate practice, leaders can improve their ability to win over their employees, their peers, or their board of directors. The journey to elite performance is not for the impatient or the faint of heart. It takes at least a decade and requires the guidance of an expert teacher to provide tough, often painful feedback. It also demands would-be experts to develop their "inner coach" and eventually drive their own progress. PMID:17642130

  6. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44... PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of... presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the Presiding Officer,...

  7. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Expert witnesses. 516.52 Section 516.52 National... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or...

  8. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Expert witnesses. 516.52 Section 516.52 National... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or...

  9. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44... PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of... presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the Presiding Officer,...

  10. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2012-07-01 2009-07-01 true Expert witnesses. 516.52 Section 516.52 National... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or...

  11. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Expert witnesses. 516.52 Section 516.52 National... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or...

  12. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44... PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of... presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the Presiding Officer,...

  13. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Expert witnesses. 516.52 Section 516.52 National... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or...

  14. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  15. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  16. Robotic planner expert system (RPLANES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grice, Ervin Oneal

    1987-01-01

    The Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis of the Johnson Space Center has developed a prototype of an expert system for robotic planning. A robot is given a high level goal to perform an action (i.e., swap, adjust, or stow) on a component unit of an object such as a satellite and the Robotic Planner Expert System (RPLANES) generates the necessary goals for arm actions. RPLANES is designed using the Inference Corp. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) development tool. It resides on a SYMBOLICS 3670. RPLANES and its evolution are described.

  17. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1986-11-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  18. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. PMID:25725910

  19. Biosynthesis, elicitation and roles of monocot terpenoid phytoalexins.

    PubMed

    Schmelz, Eric A; Huffaker, Alisa; Sims, James W; Christensen, Shawn A; Lu, Xuan; Okada, Kazunori; Peters, Reuben J

    2014-08-01

    A long-standing goal in plant research is to optimize the protective function of biochemical agents that impede pest and pathogen attack. Nearly 40 years ago, pathogen-inducible diterpenoid production was described in rice, and these compounds were shown to function as antimicrobial phytoalexins. Using rice and maize as examples, we discuss recent advances in the discovery, biosynthesis, elicitation and functional characterization of monocot terpenoid phytoalexins. The recent expansion of known terpenoid phytoalexins now includes not only the labdane-related diterpenoid superfamily but also casbane-type diterpenoids and β-macrocarpene-derived sequiterpenoids. Biochemical approaches have been used to pair pathway precursors and end products with cognate biosynthetic genes. The number of predicted terpenoid phytoalexins is expanding through advances in cereal genome annotation and terpene synthase characterization that likewise enable discoveries outside the Poaceae. At the cellular level, conclusive evidence now exists for multiple plant receptors of fungal-derived chitin elicitors, phosphorylation of membrane-associated signaling complexes, activation of mitogen-activated protein kinase, involvement of phytohormone signals, and the existence of transcription factors that mediate the expression of phytoalexin biosynthetic genes and subsequent accumulation of pathway end products. Elicited production of terpenoid phytoalexins exhibit additional biological functions, including root exudate-mediated allelopathy and insect antifeedant activity. Such findings have encouraged consideration of additional interactions that blur traditionally discrete phytoalexin classifications. The establishment of mutant collections and increasing ease of genetic transformation assists critical examination of further biological roles. Future research directions include examination of terpenoid phytoalexin precursors and end products as potential signals mediating plant physiological processes. PMID:24450747

  20. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and physiological (heart…

  1. Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a

  2. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

  3. Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a…

  4. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing

  5. DEVELOPMENT OF AN INSTRUMENT FOR ELICITING AND EVALUATING VOCATIONAL IMAGERY.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MATHEWSON, ROBERT H.; ORTON, JOHN W.

    THIS STUDY WAS CONDUCTED TO (1) PRODUCE AN INSTRUMENT FOR ELICITING VOCATIONAL IMAGERY FOR USE IN THE EDUCATIONAL-VOCATIONAL ORIENTATION AND COUNSELING OF HIGH SCHOOL YOUTH, AND (2) DEVELOP A SCALE FOR EVALUATING THE MATURITY OF THE VOCATIONAL IMAGERY ELICITED BY THE INSTRUMENT. A PREVIOUSLY DESIGNED INSTRUMENT "WHAT I THINK OF MYSELF" (A…

  6. The Appropriateness of Renal Angioplasty. The ANPARIA Software: A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Gerbaud, Laurent; Manhes, Geraud; Debourse, Juliette; Gouby, Gerald Glanddier, Phyllis-Yvonne; Vader, John-Paul; Boyer, Louis Deteix, Patrice

    2008-11-15

    Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size >7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis ({>=}70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anpariahttp://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anparia/). In numerous clinical situations uncertainty remains as to whether PTRA prevents deterioration of renal function.

  7. Ask an Expert with Style.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ekhaml, Leticia

    1999-01-01

    Discusses electronic mail use in elementary/secondary education focusing on a comparison/review of award-winning Internet-based Virtual Reference Desk Exemplary Services (Ask Dr. Math, Ask A Volcanologist, How Things Work, AskERIC, Mad Scientist, Shamu, and American Art) that provide ask-an-expert question and answer services. Home pages, delivery…

  8. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses…

  9. An expert sample analysis planner

    SciTech Connect

    Spencer, W.A.; Parks, W.S.

    1990-01-01

    Analytical chemists are faced with the problem of choosing an appropriate analytical technique for a particular sample and weighing the options as they affect precision, time, and cost. This paper describes a computer technique to assist managers in reviewing the alternatives and to match needs with the resources available. This paper proposes an expert system, knowledgeable of analytical chemistry techniques, to create sample plans. Sample planning is an appropriate topic for expert systems because scarce human expertise is required to complete sample plans. A sample plan is the description of how samples received at the Savannah River Laboratory are handled, controlled, measured, and dispositioned. Sample planning is difficult because multiple experts are needed, planning is not a static function, and planning is time consuming. An Expert Sample Analyses Planner (XSAP) is proposed to create sample plans for laboratory managers. XSAP supplements the scarce knowledge of analytical techniques creating sample plans based on analysis constraints, methods available, and time requirements. XSAP interacts with the chemist to suggest sample plans. XSAP considers equipment available locally, at other Savannah River laboratories, at other Department of Energy facilities, and at other commercial laboratories. XSAP allows options on scheduling: best solution, cheapest solution, best local solution, and fastest solution. 26 refs.

  10. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative

  11. Expert Systems for Reference Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrot, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Discussion of library reference work that may be suitable for use of expert systems focuses on (1) information and literature searches, and (2) requests to interpret bibliographic references and locate items listed. Systems and computer-assisted instruction modules designed for information retrieval at the University of Waterloo Library are…

  12. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  13. Utilizing expert systems for satellite monitoring and control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hughes, Peter M.

    1991-01-01

    Spacecraft analysts in the spacecraft control center for the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite are currently utilizing a fault-isolation expert system developed to assist in the isolation and correction of faults in the communications link. This system, the communication link expert assistance resource (CLEAR), monitors real time spacecraft and ground systems performance parameters in search of configuration discrepancies and communications link problems. If such a discrepancy or problem is isolated, CLEAR alerts the analyst and provides advice on how to resolve the problem swiftly and effectively. The CLEAR system is the first real time expert system to be used in the operational environment of a satellite control center at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Clear has not only demonstrated the utility and potential of an expert system in the demanding environment of a satellite control center, but also has revealed many of the pitfalls and deficiencies of development of expert systems. One of the lessons learned from this and other initial expert system projects is that prototypes can often be developed quite rapidly, but operational expert systems require considerable effort. Development is generally a slow, tedious process that typically requires the special skills of trained programmers. Due to the success of CLEAR and several other systems in the control center domain, a large number of expert systems will certainly be developed to support control center operations during the early 1990's. To facilitate the development of these systems, a project was initiated to develop an integrated, domain-specific tool, the generic spacecraft analyst assistent (GenSAA), that alows the spacecraft analysts to rapidly create simple expert systems themselves. By providing a highly graphical point-and-select method of system development, GenSAA allows the analyst to utilize and/or modify previously developed rule bases and system components; thus, facilitating software reuse and reducing development time and effort.

  14. ATS displays: A reasoning visualization tool for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1990-01-01

    Reasoning visualization is a useful tool that can help users better understand the inherently non-sequential logic of an expert system. While this is desirable in most all expert system applications, it is especially so for such critical systems as those destined for space-based operations. A hierarchical view of the expert system reasoning process and some characteristics of these various levels is presented. Also presented are Abstract Time Slice (ATS) displays, a tool to visualize the plethora of interrelated information available at the host inferencing language level of reasoning. The usefulness of this tool is illustrated with some examples from a prototype potable water expert system for possible use aboard Space Station Freedom.

  15. Genetic medicine: an experiment in community-expert interaction.

    PubMed Central

    Schibeci, R; Barns, I; Shaw, R; Davison, A

    1999-01-01

    This project tested a two-way model of communication between lay groups and experts about genetic medicine in Perth, Western Australia. Focus group discussion with community group participants was followed by a communication workshop between community group participants and experts. Four groups of concerns or themes emerged from discussion: clinical considerations; legislative concerns; research priorities, and ethical and wider considerations. Community group concerns are not always met by the actions of "experts". This is, in part, because of the differing life-worlds of each group. However, the communication workshop showed the potential of two-way communication for both lay and expert members in understanding the others' viewpoint. Further, the approach developed here offers one possible way for community groups to participate in a substantial way in policy formulation processes. PMID:10461598

  16. Expert system technology for natural gas resource development

    SciTech Connect

    Munro, R.G.

    1997-12-31

    Materials data are used in all aspects of the development of natural gas resources. Unconventional gas resources require special attention in their development and may benefit from heuristic assessments of the materials data, geological site conditions, and the knowledge base accumulated from previous unconventional site developments. Opportunities for using expert systems in the development of unconventional natural gas resources are discussed. A brief introduction to expert systems is provided in a context that emphasizes the practical nature of their service. The discussion then focuses on the development of unconventional gas reserves. Whenever possible, the likelihood of success in constructing useful expert systems for gas resource development is indicated by comparisons to existing expert systems that perform comparable functions in other industries. Significant opportunities are found for applications to site assessment, the interpretation of well log data, and the monitoring and optimization of gas processing in small-scale recovery operations.

  17. Real-time space system control with expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leinweber, David; Hawkinson, Lowell; Perry, John

    1988-01-01

    Many aspects of space system operations involve continuous control of real time processes. These processes include electrical power system monitoring, prelaunch and ongoing propulsion system health and maintenance, environmental and life support systems, space suit checkout, onboard manufacturing, and vehicle servicing including satellites, shuttles, orbital maneuvering vehicles, orbital transfer vehicles and remote teleoperators. Traditionally, monitoring of these critical real time processes has been done by trained human experts monitoring telemetry data. However, the long duration of future space missions and the high cost of crew time in space creates a powerful economic incentive for the development of highly autonomous knowledge based expert control procedures for these space systems.

  18. Grounded theory in medical laboratory science expert practice development.

    PubMed

    Leibach, Elizabeth Kenimer

    2011-01-01

    Grounded theory and methods related to expert practice development in medical laboratory science were described using data from a large national survey of medical laboratory scientists (MLS) overlaid on findings from analysis of expert practice domains reported in nursing literature. An extensive focus group/expert review iterative process followed by a survey of MLS practitioners produced 25 critical thinking (CT) behaviors important in expert practice. Factor analysis was applied to discern common threads or themes linking the CT behaviors. The 25 important CT behaviors were reduced to a 7-factor structure representing constructs underlying the individual, observable CT behaviors. This 7-factor structure in MLS was compared to the 7 practice domains identified in expert nursing practice. The comparison yielded commonality between MLS and nursing in CT behaviors observed in the 7 expert practice domains of both professions: professional techniques, caring communication, growing professionally, setting priorities, practicing with judgment, anticipating/revising, and creating unique meaning. Emergent grounded theory is that (1) critical thinking is a metaprocess that facilitates learning by interlinking the more basic processes associated with different learning orientations: cognitivist, behaviorist, humanist (affective), and situated/contextual learning, (2) CT behaviors are observable events following from the CT metaprocess, and (3) observations of CT behaviors increase as practice advances from novice to expert. Identification and definition of CT behaviors, i.e., practice competencies, along the continuum of novice to expert can serve as the foundation for MLS curriculum and instructional design as well as measurement and evaluation in both formal and continuing education settings. PMID:22420229

  19. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    PubMed

    Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-01

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies. PMID:23002786

  20. Ridiculous statements by mental health experts.

    PubMed

    Bernet, William

    2011-07-01

    When mental health experts express their opinions in testimony, reports, and articles in professional literature, it is expected that their statements will accurately reflect the current state of knowledge. Experts may disagree about the data that they collected. In some cases, however, disagreement occurs because an expert has employed a methodology that is far outside usual procedures or simply disregarded objective facts. When that occurs, the expert's opinions may be considered ridiculous. The author presents examples of ridiculous statements by mental health experts and provides suggestions for how a forensic practitioner might address ridiculous statements by mental health experts. PMID:21683920

  1. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-31

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  2. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  3. Expert credibility in climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H

    2010-07-01

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers. PMID:20566872

  4. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. PMID:20702026

  5. [Liability of the expert witness].

    PubMed

    Jansen, C

    1996-11-01

    Regarding the liability of the expert witness, is has to be differentiated between the responsibility according to the civil law and the criminal law. Responsibility in the criminal law means the punishableness for the guilty and illegal fulfillment of a criminal offense in the legal sense, while responsibility in the civil law means compensation towards another citizen. Criminal prosecution occurs ex officio. Prerequisite for prosecution in the civil law is an action of the victim. PMID:9064937

  6. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm.

    PubMed

    Billari, Francesco C; Graziani, Rebecca; Melilli, Eugenio

    2014-10-01

    This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution: that is, fertility, mortality, and migration. Here, two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but rather is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. This article provides the questionnaire designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian population from 2010 to 2065 is proposed. PMID:25124024

  7. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  8. Expert searching in public health

    PubMed Central

    Alpi, Kristine M.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: The article explores the characteristics of public health information needs and the resources available to address those needs that distinguish it as an area of searching requiring particular expertise. Methods: Public health searching activities from reference questions and literature search requests at a large, urban health department library were reviewed to identify the challenges in finding relevant public health information. Results: The terminology of the information request frequently differed from the vocabularies available in the databases. Searches required the use of multiple databases and/or Web resources with diverse interfaces. Issues of the scope and features of the databases relevant to the search questions were considered. Conclusion: Expert searching in public health differs from other types of expert searching in the subject breadth and technical demands of the databases to be searched, the fluidity and lack of standardization of the vocabulary, and the relative scarcity of high-quality investigations at the appropriate level of geographic specificity. Health sciences librarians require a broad exposure to databases, gray literature, and public health terminology to perform as expert searchers in public health. PMID:15685281

  9. A middle man approach to knowledge acquisition in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, Janice A.; Lin, Min-Jin; Mayer, Richard J.; Sterle, Mark E.

    1990-01-01

    The Weed Control Advisor (WCA) is a robust expert system that has been successfully implemented on an IBM AT class microcomputer in CLIPS. The goal of the WCA was to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an economical, efficient, user friendly system through which Texas rice producers could obtain expert level knowledge regarding herbicide application for weed control. During the development phase of the WCA, an improved knowledge acquisition method which we call the Middle Man Approach (MMA) was applied to facilitate the communication process between the domain experts and the knowledge engineer. The MMA served to circumvent the problems associated with the more traditional forms of knowledge acquisition by placing the Middle Man, a semi-expert in the problem domain with some computer expertise, at the site of system development. The middle man was able to contribute to system development in two major ways. First, the Middle Man had experience working in rice production and could assume many of the responsibilities normally performed by the domain experts such as explaining the background of the problem domain and determining the important relations. Second, the Middle Man was familiar with computers and worked closely with the system developers to update the rules after the domain experts reviewed the prototype, contribute to the help menus and explanation portions of the expert system, conduct the testing that is required to insure that the expert system gives the expected results answer questions in a timely way, help the knowledge engineer structure the domain knowledge into a useable form, and provide insight into the end user's profile which helped in the development of the simple user friendly interface. The final results were not only that both time expended and costs were greatly reduced by using the MMA, but the quality of the system was improved. This papa will introduce the WCA system and then discuss traditional knowledge acquisition along with some of the problems often associated with it, the MMA methodology, and its application to the WCA development.

  10. An expert system for restructurable control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1988-01-01

    Work in progrss on an expert system which restructures and tunes control systems online in real-time is presented. The expert system coordinates the different methods involved in redesigning and implementing the control strategies due to plant changes.

  11. [Professional and ethical medical expert quality].

    PubMed

    Iveković, Renata

    2008-01-01

    The work of court experts, including those of medical profession, is ruled by Regulations on standing court experts. The Regulations determine requirements for performing the job of court expertise, rights and duties of court experts, awards and remuneration for their work. The ethical codex determines relation of experts to performance of expertise, to court and parties, to colleagues court experts and to the community. The expert must obey the rules on performance of the expertise, complete all his duties, protect respectability of all court experts, and justify trust of legal authorities. In relationship with the court, the expert must respond to court summons, give his finding and opinion, and come to hearing summons. PMID:19146190

  12. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  13. Expert testimony regarding child sexual abuse.

    PubMed

    Myers, J E

    1993-01-01

    Expert testimony plays an important role in child sexual abuse litigation in criminal, juvenile, and family courts. This article discusses legal issues relating to expert testimony, including: (a) when expert testimony is permitted, (b) qualifications of expert witnesses on child sexual abuse, (c) permissible bases supporting expert testimony, (d) expert testimony on ultimate factual and legal issues, (e) the reasonable certainty standard of expert testimony, (f) the inappropriateness of equating clinical decision making with the legal degrees of proof, and (g) application of the doctrine of res judicata in litigation regarding child sexual abuse in family court. The article also provides a summary of contemporary case law regarding expert testimony offered in child sexual abuse litigation. PMID:8435782

  14. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  15. Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

  16. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-03-14

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  17. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  18. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  19. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Expert witnesses. 516.49 Section 516.49 National... Private Litigation § 516.49 Expert witnesses. (a) General rule. Present DA personnel will not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony either in private litigation or in...

  20. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Expert witnesses. 516.49 Section 516.49 National... Private Litigation § 516.49 Expert witnesses. (a) General rule. Present DA personnel will not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony either in private litigation or in...

  1. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 9 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expert discovery. 1081.210 Section 1081.210... Initiation of Proceedings and Prehearing Rules § 1081.210 Expert discovery. (a) At a date set by the hearing... its expert witnesses. Each party shall serve the other parties with a list of any rebuttal...

  2. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert discovery. 1081.210 Section 1081.210... Initiation of Proceedings and Prehearing Rules § 1081.210 Expert discovery. (a) At a date set by the hearing... its expert witnesses. Each party shall serve the other parties with a list of any rebuttal...

  3. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Expert witnesses. 516.49 Section 516.49 National... Private Litigation § 516.49 Expert witnesses. (a) General rule. Present DA personnel will not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony either in private litigation or in...

  4. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Expert witnesses. 511.44 Section 511.44... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADJUDICATIVE PROCEDURES Hearings § 511.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience, or profession,...

  5. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2012-07-01 2009-07-01 true Expert witnesses. 516.49 Section 516.49 National... Private Litigation § 516.49 Expert witnesses. (a) General rule. Present DA personnel will not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony either in private litigation or in...

  6. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert discovery. 1081.210 Section 1081.210... Initiation of Proceedings and Prehearing Rules § 1081.210 Expert discovery. (a) At a date set by the hearing... its expert witnesses. Each party shall serve the other parties with a list of any rebuttal...

  7. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Expert witnesses. 516.49 Section 516.49 National... Private Litigation § 516.49 Expert witnesses. (a) General rule. Present DA personnel will not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony either in private litigation or in...

  8. Interfaces and Expert Systems for Online Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kehoe, Cynthia A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper reviews the history of separate online system interfaces which led to efforts to develop expert systems for searching databases, particularly for end users, and introduces the research on such expert systems. Appended is a bibliography of sources on interfaces and expert systems for online retrieval. (Author/EJS)

  9. Expert Systems and Intelligent Information Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, H. M.

    1987-01-01

    Explores what an intelligent information retrieval system involves and why expert system techniques might interest system designers. Expert systems research is reviewed with emphasis on components, architecture, and computer interaction, and it is concluded that information retrieval is not an ideal problem domain for expert system application at…

  10. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44... PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience, or profession, has peculiar knowledge concerning the subject matter...

  11. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expert witnesses. 511.44 Section 511.44... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADJUDICATIVE PROCEDURES Hearings § 511.44 Expert witnesses....

  12. 16 CFR 255.3 - Expert endorsements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert endorsements. 255.3 Section 255.3... ENDORSEMENTS AND TESTIMONIALS IN ADVERTISING § 255.3 Expert endorsements. (a) Whenever an advertisement represents, directly or by implication, that the endorser is an expert with respect to the...

  13. 16 CFR 255.3 - Expert endorsements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert endorsements. 255.3 Section 255.3... ENDORSEMENTS AND TESTIMONIALS IN ADVERTISING § 255.3 Expert endorsements. (a) Whenever an advertisement represents, directly or by implication, that the endorser is an expert with respect to the...

  14. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44... PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience, or profession, has peculiar knowledge concerning the subject matter...

  15. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Expert witnesses. 511.44 Section 511.44... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADJUDICATIVE PROCEDURES Hearings § 511.44 Expert witnesses....

  16. Expert Meeting Report. Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    The NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership held an expert meeting on Foundations–Research Results on November 15, 2011, in Minneapolis, MN. Audience participation was actively encouraged during each presentation to uncover needs and promote dialog among researchers and industry professionals. Key results were: greater understanding of the role of moisture transport through foundation and insulation materials and its potential impact on building durability; greater understanding of the role of foundation type in the process of selecting an insulation system for energy performance and building durability; need for research to quantify the risks associated with insulation processes to better enable users to weigh costs and benefits against the existing conditions of a home; need for improved performance modeling capabilities that address variations in foundation types and soil conditions.

  17. Social conflicts elicit an N400-like component.

    PubMed

    Huang, Yi; Kendrick, Keith M; Yu, Rongjun

    2014-12-01

    When people have different opinions, they often adjust their own attitude to match that of others, known as social conformity. How social conflicts trigger subsequent conformity remains unclear. One possibility is that a conflict with the group opinion is perceived as a violation of social information, analogous to using wrong grammar, and activates conflict monitoring and adjustment mechanisms. Using event related potential (ERP) recording combined with a face attractiveness judgment task, we investigated the neural encoding of social conflicts. We found that social conflicts elicit an N400-like negative deflection, being more negative for conflict with group opinions than no-conflict condition. The social conflict related signals also have a bi-directional profile similar to reward prediction error signals: it was more negative for under-estimation (i.e. one׳s own ratings were smaller than group ratings) than over-estimation, and the larger the differences between ratings, the larger the N400 amplitude. The N400 effects were significantly diminished in the non-social condition. We conclude that social conflicts are encoded in a bidirectional fashion in the N400-like component, similar to the pattern of reward-based prediction error signals. Our findings also suggest that the N400, a well-established ERP component encoding semantic violation, might be involved in social conflict processing and social learning. PMID:25446967

  18. Embodiment of motor skills when observing expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Sinnett, Scott; Hodges, Nicola J; Chua, Romeo; Kingstone, Alan

    2011-04-01

    If people are shown a dynamic movie of an action such as kicking a soccer ball or hitting a tennis ball, they will respond to it faster if it requires the same effector. This standard congruency effect was reported to reverse when participants viewed static images of famous athletes not actually performing an action. It was suggested that the congruent response was inhibited because of a social contrast effect, based on an implied action, whereby responders viewed themselves as comparatively worse than the professional athlete. The present study recorded hand and foot responses when identifying static images of both famous and novice athletes in soccer and tennis. The action was either explicit or implied. In Experiment 1, a standard congruency effect was found for all images. In Experiment 2, when a response was based on the identity of the athlete rather than their expertise, the standard congruency effect was enhanced for images of novice athletes, but was eliminated for experts, suggesting a social contrast effect. Our study is the first to show that embodiment effects can be seen for implied and explicit action images of both novices and experts, and that static images are capable of eliciting priming effects associated with sport-relevant effector pairings. PMID:20967689

  19. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller on-line for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  20. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller online for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  1. Expert witness testimony guidelines: identifying areas for improvement.

    PubMed

    Svider, Peter F; Eloy, Jean Anderson; Baredes, Soly; Setzen, Michael; Folbe, Adam J

    2015-02-01

    Expert witnesses play an invaluable, if controversial, role by deciphering medical events for juries in cases of alleged negligence. We review expert witness guidelines among major surgical societies and identify gaps within these standards, as our hope is that this spurs discussion addressing areas for improvement. Of 8 surgical societies with accessible guidelines, none included specific compensation guidelines or limits, detailed reporting mechanisms regarding unethical behavior by legal professionals, or addressed the appropriateness of testifying frequently and exclusively for one side. Several processes possibly deterring grossly inaccurate testimony have been adopted by other surgical societies and should potentially be addressed by the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery. These include offering an expert witness testimony certification path, strengthening the formalized grievance process, and encouraging members to sign an affirmation statement. PMID:25389319

  2. Natural language front-ends for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Obermeier, K.K.

    1984-01-01

    The development and implementation of NL-front-ends for expert systems has become one of the major concerns for ai research. Although this paper aims at a general discussion of the issues involved, its main points are based on the author's work on the NL-front-end for MDX, a medical expert system developed at the Ohio State University, as well as from READ (reader for event analysis and detection) and the currently being developed NL-front-end for BASIS, both projects of Battelle Memorial Institute. Information extracted from linguistic structures is subject to conventional and conversational implicatures, whereas at a later processing stage, conceptually motivated rules take effect in the reasoning process that is the domain of the expert system proper. The following five criteria are proposed as part of a design procedure to ensure the effectiveness and future productivity of a system: (1) modularity; (2) transparency; (3) extendability; (4) transportability; and (5) robustness. 17 references.

  3. Expert-novice differences in SMR activity during dart throwing.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Ming-Yang; Hung, Chiao-Ling; Huang, Chung-Ju; Chang, Yu-Kai; Lo, Li-Chuan; Shen, Cheng; Hung, Tsung-Min

    2015-09-01

    Previous evidence suggests that augmented sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) activity is related to the superior regulation of processing cognitive-motor information in motor performance. However, no published studies have examined the relationship between SMR and performance in precision sports; thus, this study examined the relationship between SMR activity and the level of skilled performance in tasks requiring high levels of attention (e.g., dart throwing). We hypothesized that skilled performance would be associated with higher SMR activity. Fourteen dart-throwing experts and eleven novices were recruited. Participants were requested to perform 60 dart throws while EEG was recorded. The 2(Group: Expert, Novice)×2(Time window: -2000 ms to -1000 ms, -1000 ms to 0 ms) ANOVA showed that the dart-throwing experts maintained a relatively higher SMR power than the novices before dart release. These results suggest that SMR might reflect the adaptive regulation of cognitive-motor processing during the preparatory period. PMID:26277266

  4. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  5. World Ocean Assessment experts needed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-07-01

    The United Nations (UN) is inviting interested scientists to apply to be members of an international pool of 1000-2000 experts who will be authors and reviewers of its first World Ocean Assessment (WOA) report, slated for completion in 2014. The UN anticipates that subsequent WOA reports will be generated on a 5-year cycle. The first report will include more than 50 subjects grouped within four main themes: marine environment and understanding of the ocean's role in the global integrated Earth system, food security and safety, human activities that influence the ocean or are influenced by the ocean, and marine biological diversity. A scientific and technical summary is also planned.

  6. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  7. Expert systems in transmission planning

    SciTech Connect

    Galiana, F.D. ); McGillis, D.T. ); Marin, M.A. )

    1992-05-01

    In this paper the state of the field of expert systems and knowledge engineering in transmission planning is reviewed. A detailed analysis of the goals, definition, requirements and methodology of transmission planning is presented. Potential benefits of knowledge-based applications in transmission planning are reviewed. This is followed by a thorough review of the area broken down into subareas or important related topics. The conclusions offer a number of suggestions for possible future research and development. Finally, a detailed bibliography divided into subareas is presented.

  8. Space Transportation System Meteorological Expert

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beller, Arthur E.; Stafford, Sue P.

    1987-01-01

    The STS Meteorological Expert (STSMET) is a long-term project to acquire general Shuttle operational weather forecasting expertise specific to the launch locale, to apply it to Shuttle operational weather forecasting tasks at the Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility, and ultimately to provide an on-line real-time operational aid to the duty forecasters in performing their tasks. Particular attention is given to the development of an approach called scenario-based reasoning, with specific application to summer thunderstorms; this type of reasoning can also be applied to frontal weather phenomena, visibility including fog, and wind shear.

  9. CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hentea, Mariana

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

  10. Brain activity elicited by positive and negative feedback in preschool-aged children.

    PubMed

    Mai, Xiaoqin; Tardif, Twila; Doan, Stacey N; Liu, Chao; Gehring, William J; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the processing of positive vs. negative feedback in children aged 4-5 years, we devised a prize-guessing game that is analogous to gambling tasks used to measure feedback-related brain responses in adult studies. Unlike adult studies, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) elicited by positive feedback was as large as that elicited by negative feedback, suggesting that the neural system underlying the FRN may not process feedback valence in early childhood. In addition, positive feedback, compared with negative feedback, evoked a larger P1 over the occipital scalp area and a larger positive slow wave (PSW) over the right central-parietal scalp area. We believe that the PSW is related to emotional arousal and the intensive focus on positive feedback that is present in the preschool and early school years has adaptive significance for both cognitive and emotional development during this period. PMID:21526189

  11. The Expert Witness in Medical Malpractice Litigation

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Physicians may find serving as an expert witness to be interesting, intellectually stimulating, and financially beneficial. However, potential expert witnesses should be aware of the increased legal scrutiny being applied to expert witness testimony in medical malpractice litigation. In the past, expert witnesses received absolute immunity from civil litigation regarding their testimony. This is no longer the case. Expert witnesses may be subject to disciplinary sanctions from professional organizations and state medical boards. In addition, emerging case law is defining the legal duty owed by the expert witness to the litigating parties. Orthopaedic surgeons who serve as expert witnesses should be familiar with the relevant Standards of Professionalism issued by the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. PMID:19052827

  12. Differentiating experts' anticipatory skills in beach volleyball.

    PubMed

    Cañal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J P

    2011-12-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos of attack sequences that were occluded at three different times and to predict the outcome of these situations. Results showed that expert players and coaches (who were both perceptual-motor experts) outperformed the expert referees (who were watching experts but did not have the same motor expertise) and the control group in the latest occlusion condition (i.e., at spiker-ball contact). This finding suggests that perceptual-motor expertise may contribute to successful action anticipation in beach volleyball. PMID:22276408

  13. Risk management and expert system development methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hull, Larry; Gilstrap, Lewey

    1991-01-01

    A risk-based expert-system development methodology has been developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and to serve as a standard for developing expert systems. Expert-system development differs from conventional software development in that the information needed to prepare system requirements for expert systems is not known at the outset of a project and is obtained by knowledge engineering methods. The paper describes the expert-system life cycle, development methodology, and the approach taken in this methodology to manage and reduce the risks in expert system development. Also examined are the risks of using and of not using a methodology, the studies undertaken to validate the provisions of the expert system development methodology, and the results of these validation studies.

  14. Family Stories: Eliciting Tolerance and Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dukes, Melanie Anne Dillett

    2009-01-01

    The past and present provide an important reference to understanding the circumstances and cultural differences that assist in the development of our methods of interaction. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to provide a process of personal self-reflection of experiences by which administrators, school officials, staff, and faculty can…

  15. The nature of expertise in fingerprint matching: experts can do a lot with a little.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Matthew B; Tangen, Jason M

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of "information" available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect-experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints-but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony. PMID:25517509

  16. The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Matching: Experts Can Do a Lot with a Little

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Matthew B.; Tangen, Jason M.

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of “information” available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect—experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints—but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony. PMID:25517509

  17. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--legal evaluation of medical expert opinion].

    PubMed

    Schlund, G H

    1996-11-01

    The constitutional position of the judge and the medical expert witness during a lawsuit is explained. From this, the demands on a judicial expert witness for the preparation of his expert assessment are derived and the judge's function in the appointment of the expert witness is explained. Additionally, criteria, duties, and rules are worked out, which should be followed by the judge during assessment of the medical expert testimony. PMID:9064930

  18. Expert system validation in prolog

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  19. Expert system for groundwater modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Venoge, T.P. de; Stauffer, T.B.; Medina, M.; Jacobs, T.

    1994-12-31

    Hazardous waste site remedial investigations and feasibility studies generally involve some degree of groundwater modeling. A plethora of models exist and most models are difficult to use. An expert system has been developed to lead the user to the appropriate model(s) based on responses to questions about site conditions and data availability. The system is menu driven, user friendly, and provides assistance in estimating input parameters where field measurements are lacking. The system contains twelve models, both analytical and numerical models, that are in the public domain. Some of the models included in the system are MOC, MODFLOW, BIOPLUME, RESSQ, TDAST and PLUME2D. Preprocessors and post processors have been written to permit easy data input and to provide understandable and interpretable data output. There are two versions of the expert system that are available. One version is a UNIX based system that works through the windows environment and provides excellent graphics capabilities. The other version is DOS based and will run on a 386 processor or higher system with 10 megabytes of available hard disk space.

  20. NASA ground terminal communication equipment automated fault isolation expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Y. K.; Wetzel, C. R.

    1990-01-01

    The prototype expert systems are described that diagnose the Distribution and Switching System I and II (DSS1 and DSS2), Statistical Multiplexers (SM), and Multiplexer and Demultiplexer systems (MDM) at the NASA Ground Terminal (NGT). A system level fault isolation expert system monitors the activities of a selected data stream, verifies that the fault exists in the NGT and identifies the faulty equipment. Equipment level fault isolation expert systems are invoked to isolate the fault to a Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) level. Input and sometimes output data stream activities for the equipment are available. The system level fault isolation expert system compares the equipment input and output status for a data stream and performs loopback tests (if necessary) to isolate the faulty equipment. The equipment level fault isolation system utilizes the process of elimination and/or the maintenance personnel's fault isolation experience stored in its knowledge base. The DSS1, DSS2 and SM fault isolation systems, using the knowledge of the current equipment configuration and the equipment circuitry issues a set of test connections according to the predefined rules. The faulty component or board can be identified by the expert system by analyzing the test results. The MDM fault isolation system correlates the failure symptoms with the faulty component based on maintenance personnel experience. The faulty component can be determined by knowing the failure symptoms. The DSS1, DSS2, SM, and MDM equipment simulators are implemented in PASCAL. The DSS1 fault isolation expert system was converted to C language from VP-Expert and integrated into the NGT automation software for offline switch diagnoses. Potentially, the NGT fault isolation algorithms can be used for the DSS1, SM, amd MDM located at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).