Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom, E-mail: tomswor@ardmore.net [Nashville District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Nashville, TN (United States); Canter, Larry [University of Oklahoma (United States); Principal, Environmental Impact Training, Horseshoe Bay, TX (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  2. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ...2010-0005; Sequence 14] Draft Concept for Government-Wide ``ExpertNet'' Platform and...Public Participation in Response to Government Questions AGENCY: U.S. General Services...next-generation citizen consultation, namely a government- wide software tool and process...

  3. Expert elicitation and the problem of detecting undeclared activities

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Sylvester, K. B. (Kori Budlong); Stanbro, W. D. (William D.)

    2002-01-01

    Measures applicable to the detection of undeclared activities are not well established, and their effectiveness is uncertain. To detect clandestine paths, the IAEA is still developing processes and procedures. As the Agency gains experience with new measures and with integrated safeguards, dealing with such problems may become more experience-based and perhaps more closely parallel the process with current safeguards where detection probabilities for the measures to be utilized on declared paths are well characterized. Whether or not this point will be reached for undeclared and mixed paths, the only tool that appears suitable at present for the purpose of generating a reasonable detection probability that can over time be tested against reality and, if necessary, adjusted is formal expert judgment, or expert elicitation. Formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. To provide a 'proof of principle' of this methodology for presentation to the Agency, experts in nuclear technology, nonproliferation, safeguards and open source information, as well as in formal expert elicitation processes, engaged in three illustrative expert elicitations on assessing information analysis as a means to detect undeclared activities. These elicitations were successful. This paper will discuss the process of and issues raised by the elicitations.

  4. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  5. Eliciting spatial statistics from geological experts using genetic algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-07-01

    A new method to obtain the statistics of a geostatistical model is introduced. The method elicits the statistical information from a geological expert directly, by iteratively updating a population of vectors of statistics, based on the expert's subjective opinion of the corresponding geological simulations. Thus, it does not require the expert to have knowledge of the mathematical and statistical details of the model. The process uses a genetic algorithm to generate new vectors. We demonstrate the methodology for a particular geostatistical model used to model rock pore-space, which simulates the spatial distribution of matrix and pores over a 2-D grid, using multipoint statistics specified by conditional probabilities. Experts were asked to use the algorithm to estimate the statistics of a given target pore-space image with known statistics; thus, their numerical rates of convergence could be calculated. Convergence was measured for all experts, showing that the algorithm can be used to find appropriate probabilities given the expert's subjective input. However, considerable and apparently irreducible residual misfit was found between the true statistics and the estimates of statistics obtained by the experts, with the root-mean-square error on the conditional probabilities typically >0.1. This is interpreted as the limit of the experts' abilities to distinguish between realizations of different spatial statistics using the algorithm. More accurate discrimination is therefore likely to require complementary elicitation techniques or sources of information independent of expert opinion.

  6. Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design1

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tim Bedford; John Quigley; Lesley Walls

    This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a dis- cussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the

  7. Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tim Bedford; John Quigley; Lesley Walls

    2006-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole

  8. Wind Energy Learning Curves for Reference in Expert Elicitations

    E-print Network

    Mountziaris, T. J.

    Wind Energy Learning Curves for Reference in Expert Elicitations Sarah Mangels, Erin Baker. Abstract: This study presents future projections of wind energy capacity and cost based on historical data. The study will be used during wind- energy expert elicitations (formal interviews aimed to quantify

  9. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert judgment has led to an improved acceptance of expert judgment because of the rigor and transparency of the results.

  10. A Model for Navigating Interview Processes in Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Junzo Kato; Seiichi Komiya; Motoshi Saeki; Atsushi Ohnishi; Morio Nagata; Shuichiroh Yamamoto; Hisayuki Horai

    2001-01-01

    Experts in requirements elicitation interview stakeholders using various levels of knowledge to grasp and elicit users' requirements. This paper analyzes expert interview processes and explores a computation model for simulating them. This model can be used to navigate a novice analyst's interview processes. It consists of a blackboard model and a state transition model in order to narrow the candidates

  11. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  12. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  13. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite some known criticism on its validity, formal expert elicitation can support environmental health research in various ways. Its main purpose is to provide a temporary summary of the limited available knowledge, which can serve as a provisional basis for policy until further research has been carried out. PMID:20420657

  14. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of elicitation is to extract this model in a useable, quantitative, form by a robust and transparent procedure. At BGS expert elicitation is being used to evaluate the uncertainty of mapped boundaries in different common mapping scenarios, with a view to building a 'collective' understanding of the challenges each scenario presents. For example, a 'sharp contact (at surface) between highly contrasting sedimentary rocks' represents one level of survey challenge that should be accurately met by all surveyors, even novices. In contrast, a 'transitional boundary defined by localised facies-variation' may require much more experience to resolve (without recourse to significantly more sampling). We will describe the initial phase of this exercise in which uncertainty models were elicited for mapped boundaries in six contrasting scenarios. Each scenario was presented to a panel of experts with varied expertise and career history. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model, in a sixth case experts with different experience took different views of the nature of the mapping problem. We will discuss our experience of the use of elicitation methodology and the implications of our results for further work at the BGS to quantify uncertainty in map products. In particular we will consider the value of elicitation as a means to capture the expertise of individuals as they retire, and as the composition of the organization's staff changes in response to the management and policy decisions.

  15. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

  16. Eliciting Forecasts from Self-interested Experts: Scoring Rules for Decision Makers

    E-print Network

    Boutilier, Craig

    Eliciting Forecasts from Self-interested Experts: Scoring Rules for Decision Makers Craig Boutilier) the principal is a decision maker who takes a decision based on the expert's prediction; and (b) the expert has an incentive to misreport her forecast to influence the choice of the decision maker. We develop a general

  17. The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Díaz Anadón, Laura; Nemet, Gregory; Verdolini, Elena

    2013-09-01

    Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts’ implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts’ cost expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but the uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts’ median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts are less confident about costs than Europeans.

  18. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy.

    PubMed

    Morgan, M Granger

    2014-05-20

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  19. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  20. Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

    SciTech Connect

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); DeWispelare, A.R. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE`s license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE`s experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC`s geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs.

  1. Expert Elicitation for the Judgment of Prion Disease Risk Uncertainties

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael G. Tyshenko; Susie ElSaadany; Tamer Oraby; Shalu Darshan; Willy Aspinall; Roger Cooke; Angela Catford; Daniel Krewski

    2011-01-01

    There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding the potential for iatrogenic prion transmission through transplantation, medical instrument reuse, blood transfusion, and blood product use due to a lack of evidence-based research on this important risk issue. A group of specialists was enlisted to evaluate some of the knowledge gaps in this area using the “Classical Model,” a structured elicitation

  2. Requirements Elicitation and Elicitation Technique Selection: A Model for Two Knowledge-Intensive Software Development Processes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ann M. Hickey; Alan M. Davis

    2003-01-01

    By its very nature, software development consists of many knowledge-intensive processes. One of the most difficult to model, however, is requirements elicitation. This paper presents a mathematical model of the requirements elicitation process that clearly shows the critical role of knowledge in its performance. One meta- process of requirements elicitation, selection of an appropriate elicitation technique, is also captured in

  3. Carbon capture and storage: combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Erin D Baker; Haewon Chon; Jeffrey M Keisler

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between R&D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics\\u000a and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the\\u000a results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in carbon capture and storage. We find a significant\\u000a amount of disagreement between experts,

  4. Integrating business processes with requirements elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Soeli T. Fiorini; Julio Cesar Sampaio Do Prado Leite; T. Diana L. V. A. De Macedo-soares

    1996-01-01

    Our objective is to integrate business engineering with requirements engineering. Towards this end we develop a conceptual model based on total quality principles with a view to structuring information about business processes in a company. The conceptual model is redefined to ensure its implementation as a hypertext. Once organized in this way, relevant process information can be used to elicit

  5. Expert elicitation of recharge model probabilities for the Death Valley regional flow system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ming Ye; Karl F. Pohlmann; Jenny B. Chapman

    2008-01-01

    Summary This study uses expert elicitation to evaluate and select five alternative recharge models developed for the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS), covering southeast Nevada and the Death Valley area of California, USA. The five models were developed based on three independent techniques: an empirical approach, an approach based on unsaturated-zone studies and an approach based on saturated-zone studies.

  6. Eliciting Forecasts from Self-interested Experts: Scoring Rules for Decision Makers

    E-print Network

    Boutilier, Craig

    Eliciting Forecasts from Self-interested Experts: Scoring Rules for Decision Makers Craig Boutilier in a prediction market). We study a more realistic setting in which (a) the principal is a decision maker to misreport her forecast to influence the choice of the decision maker if typical scoring rules are used. We

  7. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  8. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  9. Utilizing Business Process Models for Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Onur Demirörs; Çigdem Gencel; Ayça Tarhan

    2003-01-01

    Acquisition of software intensive systems demands significant work on requirements prior to establishing the contract. The acquirer needs to understand the domain, needs, and constraints of the project clearly in order to make realistic size and effort estimates, and to have a solid foundation for defining contract requirements. An approach for requirements elicitation based on business processes is investigated. The

  10. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  11. Elicitation of Expert Prior Opinion: Application to the MYPAN Trial in Childhood Polyarteritis Nodosa

    PubMed Central

    Hampson, Lisa V.; Whitehead, John; Eleftheriou, Despina; Tudur-Smith, Catrin; Jones, Rachel; Jayne, David; Hickey, Helen; Beresford, Michael W.; Bracaglia, Claudia; Caldas, Afonso; Cimaz, Rolando; Dehoorne, Joke; Dolezalova, Pavla; Friswell, Mark; Jelusic, Marija; Marks, Stephen D.; Martin, Neil; McMahon, Anne-Marie; Peitz, Joachim; van Royen-Kerkhof, Annet; Soylemezoglu, Oguz; Brogan, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa). Methods A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis. Results A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available. Conclusions We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases. PMID:25822991

  12. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  13. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  14. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  15. A Domain Ontology Building Process for Guiding Requirements Elicitation

    E-print Network

    A Domain Ontology Building Process for Guiding Requirements Elicitation Inah Omoronyia1 , Guttorm understanding among stakeholders during requirement elicitation, and therefore significantly improve the quality of the elicited requirements. However, a precondition of state-of-the-art ontology approaches for requirements

  16. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment...involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support...results of expert judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning...questions or issues presented for elicitation of expert judgment,...

  17. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment...involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support...results of expert judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning...questions or issues presented for elicitation of expert judgment,...

  18. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment...involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support...results of expert judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning...questions or issues presented for elicitation of expert judgment,...

  19. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment...involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support...results of expert judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning...questions or issues presented for elicitation of expert judgment,...

  20. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...Re-certification General Requirements § 194.26 Expert judgment...involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support...results of expert judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning...questions or issues presented for elicitation of expert judgment,...

  1. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Abbott, M. [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

    1996-08-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community.

  2. CARD No. 26 Expert Judgment

    E-print Network

    distribution parameter had to be based on an elicitation of expert judgment. DOE conducted the required expert judgment elicitation on May 5-9, 1997. EPA's review of DOE's compliance with the requirements of Section 194.26 focused on the performance of the expert elicitation process. 26-1 #12;26.A.2 REQUIREMENT (a

  3. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  4. Expert Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Catherine Q.; Prajna, N. Venkatesh; Krishnan, Tiruvengada; Mascarenhas, Jeena; Rajaraman, Revathi; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Raghavan, Anita; O'Brien, Kieran S.; Ray, Kathryn J.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Porco, Travis C.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Lietman, Thomas M.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I (MUTT I) using expert opinion as a prior belief. Methods. MUTT I was a randomized clinical trial comparing topical natamycin or voriconazole for treating filamentous fungal keratitis. A questionnaire elicited expert opinion on the best treatment of fungal keratitis before MUTT I results were available. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the questionnaire data as a prior belief and the MUTT I primary outcome (3-month visual acuity) by frequentist analysis as a likelihood. Results. Corneal experts had a 41.1% prior belief that natamycin improved 3-month visual acuity compared with voriconazole. The Bayesian analysis found a 98.4% belief for natamycin treatment compared with voriconazole treatment for filamentous cases as a group (mean improvement 1.1 Snellen lines, 95% credible interval 0.1–2.1). The Bayesian analysis estimated a smaller treatment effect than the MUTT I frequentist analysis result of 1.8-line improvement with natamycin versus voriconazole (95% confidence interval 0.5–3.0, P = 0.006). For Fusarium cases, the posterior demonstrated a 99.7% belief for natamycin treatment, whereas non-Fusarium cases had a 57.3% belief. Conclusions. The Bayesian analysis suggests that natamycin is superior to voriconazole when filamentous cases are analyzed as a group. Subgroup analysis of Fusarium cases found improvement with natamycin compared with voriconazole, whereas there was almost no difference between treatments for non-Fusarium cases. These results were consistent with, though smaller in effect size than, the MUTT I primary outcome by frequentist analysis. The accordance between analyses further validates the trial results. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00996736.) PMID:23702779

  5. We’re only in it for the knowledge? A problem solving turn in environment and health expert elicitation

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The FP6 EU HENVINET project aimed at synthesizing the scientific information available on a number of topics of high relevance to policy makers in environment and health. The goal of the current paper is to reflect on the methodology that was used in the project, in view of exploring the usefulness of this and similar methodologies to the policy process. The topics investigated included health impacts of the brominated flame retardants decabrominated diphenylether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), phthalates highlighting di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP), the pesticide chlorpyrifos (CPF), nanoparticles, the impacts of climate change on asthma and other respiratory disorders, and the influence of environment health stressors on cancer induction. Methods Initially the focus was on identifying knowledge gaps in the state of the art in scientific knowledge. Literature reviews covered all elements that compose the causal chain of the different environmental health issues from emissions to exposures, to effects and to health impacts. Through expert elicitation, knowledge gaps were highlighted by assessing expert confidence using calibrated confidence scales. During this work a complementary focus to that on knowledge gaps was developed through interdisciplinary reflections. By extending the scope of the endeavour from only a scientific perspective, to also include the more problem solving oriented policy perspective, the question of which kind of policy action experts consider justifiable was addressed. This was addressed by means of a questionnaire. In an expert workshop the results of both questionnaires were discussed as a basis for policy briefs. Results The expert elicitation, the application of the calibrated confidence levels and the problem solving approach were all experienced as being quite challenging for the experts involved, as these approaches did not easily relate to mainstream environment and health scientific practices. Even so, most experts were quite positive about it. In particular, the opportunity to widen one’s own horizon and to interactively exchange knowledge and debate with a diversity of experts seemed to be well appreciated in this approach. Different parts of the approach also helped in focussing on specific relevant aspects of scientific knowledge, and as such can be considered of reflective value. Conclusions The approach developed by HENVINET was part of a practice of learning by doing and of interdisciplinary cooperation and negotiation. Ambitions were challenged by unforeseen complexities and difference of opinion and as no Holy Grail approach was at hand to copy or follow, it was quite an interesting but also complicated endeavour. Perfection, if this could be defined, seemed out of reach all the time. Nevertheless, many involved were quite positive about it. It seems that many felt that it fitted some important needs in current science when addressing the needs of policy making on such important issues, without anyone really having a clue on how to actually do this. Challenging questions remain on the quality of such approach and its product. Practice tells us that there probably is no best method and that the best we can do is dependent on contextual negotiation and learning from experiences that we think are relevant. PMID:22759503

  6. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. B R O UW; V. R AMNIAL; L. KELLY; R. K O S M ID

    SUMMARY Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift

  7. Expert Face Processing: Specialization and Constraints

    E-print Network

    6 Expert Face Processing: Specialization and Constraints Adrian Schwaninger Claus-Christian Carbon Helmut Leder 6.1 Introduction Face processing in adults is the product of innate mechanisms, and is also based on years of experience. There is no doubt that face processing is a human skill at which most

  8. elicitation (University

    E-print Network

    Dixon, Peter

    require that: --- the expert must be guided through a structured elicitation; --- this elicitation mustAn elicitation tool for prior beliefs about complex systems Peter Craig and Michael Goldstein discussion), in J Royal Statist Soc, series D. [Thanks to EPSRC] Problem: eliciting structured multivariate

  9. RESPONSIBILITIES IN THE USABILITY REQUIREMENTS ELICITATION PROCESS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Marianella Aveledo; Ana M. Moreno; Facultad de Informática

    Like any other software system quality attribute, usability places requirements on software components. In particular, it has been demonstrated that certai n usability features have a direct impact throughout the software process. This paper details an approach th at looks at how to deal with certain usability feature s in the early software development stages. In particula r, we consider

  10. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  11. Introduction to cognitive processes of expert pilots.

    PubMed

    Adams, R J; Ericsson, A E

    2000-10-01

    This report addresses the historical problem that a very high percentage of accidents have been classified as involving "pilot error." Through extensive research since 1977, the Federal Aviation Administration determined that the predominant underlying cause of these types of accidents involved decisional problems or cognitive information processing. To attack these problems, Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) training materials were developed and tested for ten years. Since the publication of the ADM training manuals in 1987, significant reductions in human performance error (HPE) accidents have been documented both in the U.S. and world wide. However, shortcomings have been observed in the use of these materials for recurrency training and in their relevance to more experienced pilots. The following discussion defines the differences between expert and novice decision makers from a cognitive information processing perspective, correlates the development of expert pilot cognitive processes with training and experience, and reviews accident scenarios which exemplify those processes. This introductory material is a necessary prerequisite to an understanding of how to formulate expert pilot decision making training innovations; and, to continue the record of improved safety through ADM training. PMID:12190081

  12. Statistical weld process monitoring with expert interpretation

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, G.E.; Barnett, R.J.; Strauss, A.M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States); Thompson, F.M. Jr. [Computer Weld Technology, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

    1996-12-31

    A statistical weld process monitoring system is described. Using data of voltage, current, wire feed speed, gas flow rate, travel speed, and elapsed arc time collected while welding, the welding statistical process control (SPC) tool provides weld process quality control by implementing techniques of data trending analysis, tolerance analysis, and sequential analysis. For purposes of quality control, the control limits required for acceptance are specified in the weld procedure acceptance specifications. The control charts then provide quality assurance documentation for each weld. The statistical data trending analysis performed by the SPC program is not only valuable as a quality assurance monitoring and documentation system, it is also valuable in providing diagnostic assistance in troubleshooting equipment and material problems. Possible equipment/process problems are identified and matched with features of the SPC control charts. To aid in interpreting the voluminous statistical output generated by the SPC system, a large number of If-Then rules have been devised for providing computer-based expert advice for pinpointing problems based on out-of-limit variations of the control charts. The paper describes the SPC monitoring tool and the rule-based expert interpreter that has been developed for relating control chart trends to equipment/process problems.

  13. Policy relevant Results from an Expert Elicitation on the Human Health Risks of Decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) and Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Aim Apply a recently developed expert elicitation procedure to evaluate the state of the current knowledge of the two brominated flame retardants (BFRs) most commonly used today; decabromo-diphenyl ether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and their potential impact on human health in order to support policy considerations. This expert elicitation was organized by the HENVINET (Health and Environment Network) Consortium. Method The HENVINET expert elicitation procedure that was used in the evaluations of decaBDE and HBCD is a rapid assessment tool aimed at highlighting areas of agreement and areas of disagreement on knowledge-related key issues for environment and health policy decision making. Results The outcome of the expert consultation on BFRs was concrete expert advice for policy makers with specific priorities for further action made clear for both stakeholders and policy makers. The experts were not in agreement whether or not the knowledge currently available on decaBDE or HBCD is sufficient to justify policy actions, but most experts considered that enough data already exists to support a ban or restriction on the use of these compounds. All experts agreed on the necessity of more research on the compounds. Priority issues for further research were, among others: • more studies on the extent of human exposure to the compounds. • more studies on the fate and concentration in the human body of the compounds. PMID:22759507

  14. Chlorpyrifos and neurodevelopmental effects: a literature review and expert elicitation on research and policy

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Organophosphate pesticides are widely used on food crops grown in the EU. While they have been banned from indoor use in the US for a decade due to adverse health effects, they are still the most prevalent pesticides in the EU, with Chlorpyrifos (CPF) being the most commonly applied. It has been suggested CPF affects neurodevelopment even at levels below toxicity guidelines. Younger individuals may be more susceptible than adults due to biological factors and exposure settings. Methods A literature review was undertaken to assess the evidence for CPF contributing to neurodevelopmental disorders in infants and children. Other literature was consulted in order to formulate a causal chain diagram showing the origins, uptake, and neurological effects of animal and human exposure to CPF. The causal chain diagram and a questionnaire were distributed online to scientific experts who had published in relevant areas of research. They were asked to assess their confidence levels on whether CPF does in fact contribute to adverse neurodevelopment outcomes and rate their confidence in the scientific evidence. A second questionnaire queried experts as to which kind of policy action they consider justifiable based on current knowledge. In a special workshop session at the EuroTox congress in Dresden in 2009 the results of both questionnaires were further discussed with invited experts, as a basis for a policy brief with main messages for policy makers and stakeholders. Results Most experts who responded to the first questionnaire felt that there was already enough evidence to support a ban on indoor uses of CPF in the EU. However, most felt additional research is still required in several areas. The responses from the first questionnaire were used to formulate the second questionnaire addressing the feasibility of government action. In turn, these expert participants were invited to attend a special session at the EuroTox congress in Dresden in 2009. Conclusions Some of the evidence that CPF contributes to neurodevelopmental disorders is still disputed among experts, and the overall sense is that further research and public awareness are warranted. There have been campaigns in North America making the potential exposure concerns known, but such information is not widely known in the EU. The ability of government action to produce change is strongly felt in some quarters while others believe better knowledge of consumer use trends would have a greater impact. PMID:22759505

  15. Designing Mobile Information Services: User Requirements Elicitation with GSS Design and Application of a Repeatable Process

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mariëlle Den Hengst; Elisabeth Van De Kar; Jaco H. Appelman

    2004-01-01

    The main challenge in the first phase of designing mobile services is eliciting user requirements. We propose a repeatable process for eliciting user requirements based on the literature on requirements engineering and group support systems. We applied the repeatable process in three sessions to elicit user requirements for a mobile information service on a UMTS testbed. The sessions resulted in

  16. Accountability of experts in the Danish national park process

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Dorthe H. Lund; Tove Enggrob Boon; Iben Nathan

    2009-01-01

    In 2002 the Danish Minister of Environment initiated a process to investigate the possibilities of establishing national parks in Denmark. For this purpose experts were mobilised to investigate the status and potentials of the areas in question.The national park process was extensive in scope and complex, and in theory such complexity is assumed to make it difficult for non-experts to

  17. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  18. An Expert System Approach to Underwater Acoustic Information Processing

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Curtis L. Goodhart; John A. Roese; S. Joe McCarthy

    1985-01-01

    Expert System Technology, an area of Artificial Intelligence, has been increasingly proposed as a vehicle for automation in a number of diverse areas such as continuous speech understanding, computer configuration, medical diagnosis, and the planning of genetic experiments. This paper discusses an effort to demonstrate an expert system based control structure for information processing in the realm of underwater acoustic

  19. EXPERT ELICITATION WHITE PAPER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA is frequently called upon to make decisions on complex environmental issues, and to make these decisions, analyses are required from a broad range of disciplines. In all of these analyses, uncertainty and variability exist in estimates of the values of key parameters and...

  20. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  1. Optimizing a marketing expert decision process for the private hotel

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chin-tsai Lin; Chuan Lee; Cheng-shiung Wu

    2009-01-01

    The study builds on the marketing strategy decision process for marketing experts. Marketing strategy decision-making is necessary for marketing experts to determine a more efficient appropriate marketing strategy. Selecting the best marketing strategy is a multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, due to the complexity and difficulty of allocated specific resources and capabilities. This study provides a five-step decision-making process to

  2. Eliciting Multivariate Probability Distributions Alireza Daneshkhah and Jeremy Oakley

    E-print Network

    Oakley, Jeremy

    individuals in the elicitation process: a decision-maker who requires the distribution for , a (female) expert of dependence determines whether multivariate elicitation tech- niques are required. We then discuss variousEliciting Multivariate Probability Distributions Alireza Daneshkhah and Jeremy Oakley September 10

  3. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  4. [The faulty expert's opinion in medical liability process (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Minnigerode, B

    1980-05-01

    The expert's opinion in medical liability process differs from other medical certificates by the particularity, that the facts of a case of the injury becomes object of the examination and enlightment by the medical expert. This supposes a medical scientific correct reply of the questions of the court of the justice, which must be verifiable with the way of thinking conventional in the jurisdiction and which has to adjust to these trains of thought. Proceeding on a revision of the expert opinions collected in the liability evidence archiv of the German Society of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology, Head and Neck Surgery a series of continual recurrent mistakes is pointed out, which could cause a defective expert opinion and thereby possibly a wrong judical decision. PMID:7451263

  5. The selection of the casting process using an expert system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. M. Darwish; A. M. El-Tamimi

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents an expert system for the selection of casting processes. The selection criteria are based on the production, design, manufacturing as well as trade-off attributes. The objective of the present work is to aid the designer in adequately selecting casting processes for the production of components.

  6. A generic expert system for materials processing in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Kristinn; Cook, George E.; Strauss, Alvin M.

    1988-01-01

    A generic expert system is described for inspecting materials processed in space (MPS). The system may be applied, with the appropriate knowledge base, to any of the nondestructive testing methods (NDT) which are appropriate to MPS. Regardless of the method being used, the inspection process consists of three tasks: (1) signal or image processing of the NDT output and feature extraction, (2) interpretation of features in terms of MPS discontinuities, and (3) evaluation of the quality of the MPS based upon industry standards. In contrast to rule based systems, this system represents its knowledge as multidimensional vectors and appropriate functions on them. Currently, the expert system accepts manual input of observed features. Once the expert system has been tested and compared to human expert inspectors, a vision front-end will be developed to complete automation of the expert MPS inspection system, based on visual discontuities. Then the data base will be extended to include a variety of other NDT methods. In addition to functional performance, ease of use was established through menu window driven input as well as flexibility in building, using and modifying data bases for different applications.

  7. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

    E-print Network

    Mottram, Nigel

    Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever

  8. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  9. Neural processes distinguishing elite from expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Callan, Daniel E; Naito, Eiichi

    2014-12-01

    This commentary builds on a companion article in which Kim et al compare brain activation in elite, expert, and novice archers during a simulated target aiming task (Kim et al. 2014. Cogn Behav Neurol. 27:173-182). With the archery study as our starting point, we address 4 neural processes that may be responsible in general for elite athletes' superior performance over experts and novices: neural efficiency, cortical expansion, specialized processes, and internal models. In Kim et al's study, the elite archers' brains showed more activity in the supplementary motor area and the cerebellum than those of the novices and experts, and showed minimal widespread activity, especially in frontal areas involved with executive control. Kim et al's results are consistent with the idea of specialized neural processes that help coordinate motor planning and control. As athletes become more skilled, these processes may mediate the reduction in widespread activity in regions mapping executive control, and may produce a shift toward more automated processing. Kim et al's finding that activity in the cerebellum rose with increasing skill is consistent both with expansion of the finger representational area in the cerebellum and with internal models that simulate how archers manipulate the bow and arrow when aiming. Kim et al prepare the way for testing of neuromodulation techniques to improve athletic performance, refine highly technical job skills, and rehabilitate patients. PMID:25539037

  10. The impact of new data on an expert elicitation of the probability of volcanic intersection of the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, F. V.; Jenni, K. E.; Neiman, T.; Coppersmith, K.

    2008-12-01

    An expert elicitation completed in 1996 estimated the frequency of intersection by a dike of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. That assessment resulted in a mean annual frequency of intersection of 1.7e -8, or about 1 chance in 60 million per year. The expert panel primarily considered the past 5 million years of volcanic history when estimating the probability of intersection, and included in their assessment the possibility that at least a few volcanic centers were buried in alluvial basins near Yucca Mountain. The results of a regional aeromagnetic survey completed in 1999 suggested the potential for a higher number of buried volcanic centers than previously considered in the 1996 elicitation. Therefore, a new expert elicitation was convened in 2004 with the primary purpose of assessing the impact of buried volcanic centers on probability estimates. A major data-gathering effort completed in 2006 provided high-resolution aeromagnetic, drilling, and geochronology results that provided information on the number, location and age of buried basaltic centers near Yucca Mountain. Most buried basalt was determined to be of Miocene age. The youngest group of buried volcanic centers, 20-25 km south of Yucca Mountain, has an age of about 3.9 Ma. These results indicate that post-Miocene basaltic volcanism only occurred to the south and west of Yucca Mountain and not to the east, an important constraint in models that forecast the potential location of future volcanism. Other new data considered included the characteristics of dike swarms based on analog volcanoes, variations in crustal extension across the region, mantle tomography, and differences in calculated lithostatic pressure between basins and ranges. The new distribution for the annual frequency of intersection (5th and 95th percentiles of ~6e -10 and 1e -7) overlaps the 1996 distribution but is broader with more weight at both higher and lower values. This results in a slightly higher mean value and a slightly lower median value. The results are consistent with consideration of a broader range of conceptual models for the spatial and temporal behavior of volcanism, as well as more complex models of the geometry of volcanic events, all influenced in part by availability of new data.

  11. Rhythm evokes action: early processing of metric deviances in expressive music by experts and laymen revealed by ERP source imaging.

    PubMed

    James, Clara E; Michel, Christoph M; Britz, Juliane; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Hauert, Claude-Alain

    2012-12-01

    To examine how musical expertise tunes the brain to subtle metric anomalies in an ecological musical context, we presented piano compositions ending on standard and deviant cadences (endings) to expert pianists and musical laymen, while high-density EEG was recorded. Temporal expectancies were manipulated by substituting standard "masculine" cadences at metrically strong positions with deviant, metrically unaccented, "feminine" cadences. Experts detected metrically deviant cadences better than laymen. Analyses of event-related potentials demonstrated that an early P3a-like component (~150-300 ms), elicited by musical closure, was significantly enhanced at frontal and parietal electrodes in response to deviant endings in experts, whereas a reduced response to deviance occurred in laymen. Putative neuronal sources contributing to the modulation of this component were localized in a network of brain regions including bilateral supplementary motor areas, middle and posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, associative visual areas, as well as in the right amygdala and insula. In all these regions, experts showed enhanced responses to metric deviance. Later effects demonstrated enhanced activations within the same brain network, as well as higher processing speed for experts. These results suggest that early brain responses to metric deviance in experts may rely on motor representations mediated by the supplementary motor area and motor cingulate regions, in addition to areas involved in self-referential imagery and relevance detection. Such motor representations could play a role in temporal sensory prediction evolved from musical training and suggests that rhythm evokes action more strongly in highly trained instrumentalists. PMID:21932257

  12. Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

  13. Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

    A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

  14. Towards a Cognitive-Based Approach to Distributed Requirement Elicitation Processes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Gabriela N. Aranda; Aurora Vizcaíno; Alejandra Cechich; Mario Piattini

    2005-01-01

    Distance between stakeholders working on a global software development project introduces problems in communi- cation and control. Processes like requirements elicitation, where communication is crucial, have to be specially rethought in order to deal with these problems. As the requirement elicita- tion is a human-centred process, we propose using techniques from the field of cognitive psychology to define a new

  15. Expert panel reviews of research centers: the site visit process.

    PubMed

    Lawrenz, Frances; Thao, Mao; Johnson, Kelli

    2012-08-01

    Site visits are used extensively in a variety of settings within the evaluation community. They are especially common in making summative value decisions about the quality and worth of research programs/centers. However, there has been little empirical research and guidance about how to appropriately conduct evaluative site visits of research centers. We review the processes of two site visit examples using an expert panel review: (1) a process to evaluate four university research centers and (2) a process to review a federally sponsored research center. A set of 14 categories describing the expert panel review process was obtained through content analysis and participant observation. Most categories were addressed differently through the two processes highlighting the need for more research about the most effective processes to use within different contexts. Decisions about how to structure site visits appear to depend on the research context, practical considerations, the level at which the review is being conducted and the intended impact of the report. Future research pertaining to the selection of site visitors, the autonomy of the visitors in data collection and report writing, and the amount and type of information provided would be particularly valuable. PMID:22306932

  16. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  17. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

  18. A cognitive-based approach to improve distributed requirements elicitation processes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Gabriela N. Arandal; Aurora Vizcaíno; Alejandra Cechichl; Mario Piattini

    2005-01-01

    Technology used by virtual teams during a distributed requirement elicitation process is usually selected according to predetermined business politics, personal criteria of managers, etc. However, when technology is not appropriate for all members of the team, it is possible that some stakeholders would not feel completely comfortable, and hence influence their participation negatively. In order to mitigate these effects during

  19. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  20. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  1. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

  2. Process Planning Using An Integrated Expert System And Neural Network Approach

    E-print Network

    Smith, Alice E.

    Process Planning Using An Integrated Expert System And Neural Network Approach 1 Mark Wilhelm-9209424. 2 Corresponding author. #12;Process Planning Using An Integrated Expert System And Neural Network lists, process plans and estimates standard times for individual product variations using input

  3. An elicitation tool for prior beliefs about complex systems

    E-print Network

    Dixon, Peter

    require that: --- the expert must be guided through a structured elicitation; --- this elicitation must require that: --- the expert must be guided through a structured elicitation; --- this elicitation mustAn elicitation tool for prior beliefs about complex systems Peter Craig and Michael Goldstein

  4. The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

    PubMed Central

    Castro, Alexander Garcia; Rocca-Serra, Philippe; Stevens, Robert; Taylor, Chris; Nashar, Karim; Ragan, Mark A; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

    2006-01-01

    Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process. PMID:16725019

  5. Literally experts: expertise and the processing of analogical metaphors in pharmaceutical advertising.

    PubMed

    Delbaere, Marjorie; Smith, Malcolm C

    2014-01-01

    This research examined differences between novices and experts in processing analogical metaphors appearing in prescription drug advertisements. In contrast to previous studies on knowledge transfer, no evidence of the superiority of experts in processing metaphors was found. The results from an experiment suggest that expert consumers were more likely to process a metaphor in an ad literally than novices. Our findings point to a condition in which the expertise effect with processing analogies is not the linear relationship assumed in previous studies. PMID:24878402

  6. An Expert System to Support Clothing Design Process

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michele Santos; Francisco Rebelo

    2007-01-01

    In the context of expert systems technologies and human computer interaction, the goal of this project is to construct an\\u000a interactive design support to fashion designers when designing workwear or corporatewear clothes. This system will be fed\\u000a by a semantic database that describes the relations between function and clothes specific context of use under the user’s\\u000a perspective. This application will

  7. RFID-Based Critical Path Expert System for Agility Manufacture Process Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Haifang; Xiang, Yuli

    This paper presents a critical path expert system for the agility manufacture process management based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. The paper explores that the agility manufacture processes can be visible and controllable with RFID. The critical paths or activities can be easily found out and tracked by the RFID tracing technology. And the expert system can optimize the bottle neck of the task process of the agility management with the critical path adjusting and reforming method. Finally, the paper gives a simple application example of the system to discuss how to adjust the critical paths and how to make the process more agility and flexibility with the critical path expert system. With an RFID-based critical path expert system, the agility manufacture process management will be more effective and efficient.

  8. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey, completed in mid-2004, and (2) drilling of selected anomalies based on the aeromagnetic survey results to better characterize the number, location and age of buried volcanoes, which began in mid-2005. The new aeromagnetic survey detected the presence of 33 anomalies interpreted as possible buried volcanoes or faulted tuff bedrock. A program to drill ten of the anomalies has begun, with the selection of drill holes prioritized based on their potential impact on the hazard assessment.

  9. Expert Judgement and Expert Disagreement

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thomas R. Stewart

    1996-01-01

    As Hammond has argued, traditional explanations for disagreement among experts (incompetence, venality, and ideology) are inadequate. The character and fallibilities of the human judgement process itself lead to persistent disagreements even among competent, honest, and disinterested experts. Social Judgement Theory provides powerful methods for analysing such judgementally based disagreements when the experts' judgement processes can be represented by additive models

  10. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices

    PubMed Central

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  11. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices.

    PubMed

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  12. Using Data Mining and Recommender Systems to Facilitate Large-Scale, Open, and Inclusive Requirements Elicitation Processes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Carlos Castro-herrera; Chuan Duan; Jane Cleland-huang; Bamshad Mobasher

    2008-01-01

    Requirements related problems, especially those originating from inadequacies in the human-intensive task of eliciting stakeholders' needs and desires, have contributed to many failed and challenged software projects. This is especially true for large and complex projects in which requirements knowledge is distributed across thousands of stakeholders. This short paper introduces a new process and related framework that utilizes data mining

  13. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  14. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  15. Design Expert's Participation in Elementary Students' Collaborative Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of the present study was to provide insights into how disciplinary expertise might be infused into Design and Technology classrooms and how authentic processes based on professional design practices might be constructed. We describe elementary students' collaborative lamp designing process, where the leadership was provided by a…

  16. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  17. A Sublanguage Approach to Natural Language Processing for an Expert System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddy, Elizabeth D.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Reports on the development of an NLP (natural language processing) component for processing the free-text comments on life insurance applications for evaluation by an underwriting expert system. A sublanguage grammar approach with strong reliance on semantic word classes is described. Highlights include lexical analysis, adjacency analysis, and…

  18. Modelling health care processes for eliciting user requirements: a way to link a quality paradigm and clinical information system design.

    PubMed

    Staccini, P; Joubert, M; Quaranta, J F; Fieschi, D; Fieschi, M

    2001-12-01

    Healthcare institutions are looking at ways to increase their efficiency by reducing costs while providing care services with a high level of safety. Thus, hospital information systems have to support quality improvement objectives. The elicitation of the requirements has to meet users' needs in relation to both the quality (efficacy, safety) and the monitoring of all health care activities (traceability). Information analysts need methods to conceptualise clinical information systems that provide actors with individual benefits and guide behavioural changes. A methodology is proposed to elicit and structure users' requirements using a process-oriented analysis, and it is applied to the blood transfusion process. An object-oriented data model of a process has been defined in order to organise the data dictionary. Although some aspects of activity, such as 'where', 'what else', and 'why' are poorly represented by the data model alone, this method of requirement elicitation fits the dynamic of data input for the process to be traced. A hierarchical representation of hospital activities has to be found for the processes to be interrelated, and for their characteristics to be shared, in order to avoid data redundancy and to fit the gathering of data with the provision of care. PMID:11734381

  19. Modelling health care processes for eliciting user requirements: a way to link a quality paradigm and clinical information system design.

    PubMed

    Staccini, P; Joubert, M; Quaranta, J F; Fieschi, D; Fieschi, M

    2000-01-01

    Hospital information systems have to support quality improvement objectives. The design issues of health care information system can be classified into three categories: 1) time-oriented and event-labelled storage of patient data; 2) contextual support of decision-making; 3) capabilities for modular upgrading. The elicitation of the requirements has to meet users' needs in relation to both the quality (efficacy, safety) and the monitoring of all health care activities (traceability). Information analysts need methods to conceptualize clinical information systems that provide actors with individual benefits and guide behavioural changes. A methodology is proposed to elicit and structure users' requirements using a process-oriented analysis, and it is applied to the field of blood transfusion. An object-oriented data model of a process has been defined in order to identify its main components: activity, sub-process, resources, constrains, guidelines, parameters and indicators. Although some aspects of activity, such as "where", "what else", and "why" are poorly represented by the data model alone, this method of requirement elicitation fits the dynamic of data input for the process to be traced. A hierarchical representation of hospital activities has to be found for this approach to be generalised within the organisation, for the processes to be interrelated, and for their characteristics to be shared. PMID:11187605

  20. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  1. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C. (Bolingbrook, IL); Singer, Ralph M. (Naperville, IL)

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  2. Controlling Real-Time Processes On The Space Station With Expert Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leinweber, David; Perry, John

    1987-02-01

    Many aspects of space station operations involve continuous control of real-time processes. These processes include electrical power system monitoring, propulsion system health and maintenance, environmental and life support systems, space suit checkout, on-board manufacturing, and servicing of attached vehicles such as satellites, shuttles, orbital maneuvering vehicles, orbital transfer vehicles and remote teleoperators. Traditionally, monitoring of these critical real-time processes has been done by trained human experts monitoring telemetry data. However, the long duration of space station missions and the high cost of crew time in space creates a powerful economic incentive for the development of highly autonomous knowledge-based expert control procedures for these space stations. In addition to controlling the normal operations of these processes, the expert systems must also be able to quickly respond to anomalous events, determine their cause and initiate corrective actions in a safe and timely manner. This must be accomplished without excessive diversion of system resources from ongoing control activities and any events beyond the scope of the expert control and diagnosis functions must be recognized and brought to the attention of human operators. Real-time sensor based expert systems (as opposed to off-line, consulting or planning systems receiving data via the keyboard) pose particular problems associated with sensor failures, sensor degradation and data consistency, which must be explicitly handled in an efficient manner. A set of these systems must also be able to work together in a cooperative manner. This paper describes the requirements for real-time expert systems in space station control, and presents prototype implementations of space station expert control procedures in PICON (process intelligent control). PICON is a real-time expert system shell which operates in parallel with distributed data acquisition systems. It incorporates a specialized inference engine with a specialized scheduling portion specifically designed to match the allocation of system resources with the operational requirements of real-time control systems. Innovative knowledge engineering techniques used in PICON to facilitate the development of real-time sensor-based expert systems which use the special features of the inference engine are illustrated in the prototype examples.

  3. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  4. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and substantial effect. Prior to this investigation, there have been no studies which have tested Zimmerman's three phase model on an academic task, such as science, within an expertise framework. Implications from the present study suggest that students varying in expertise level in science achievement also vary in self-regulatory behavior, and that gender is not a significant factor.

  5. Creature recognition and identification by image processing based on expert system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Toshio FUKUDA; Osamu HASEGAWA

    1989-01-01

    An automatic organisms recognition and identification method for a micromanipulator system, using image processing based on an expert system, is described. The proposed method is based on the organism image segmentation method (OISM), which takes advantage of characteristic segment features that are independent of individual size and length. The complicated shapes of the organisms are divided into basic shape segments

  6. Early neuronal responses in right limbic structures mediate harmony incongruity processing in musical experts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Clara E. James; Juliane Britz; Patrik Vuilleumier; Claude-Alain Hauert; Christoph M. Michel

    2008-01-01

    In western tonal music, musical phrases end with an explicit harmonic consequent which is highly expected. As such expectation is a consequence of musical background, cerebral processing of incongruities of musical grammar might be a function of expertise. We hypothesized that a subtle incongruity of standard closure should evoke a profound and rapid reaction in an expert's brain. If such

  7. Expert systems for knowledge management: crossing the chasm between information processing and sense making

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Yogesh Malhotra

    2001-01-01

    Based on insights from research in information systems, information science, business strategy and organization science, this paper develops the bases for advancing the paradigm of AI and expert systems technologies to account for two related issues: (a) dynamic radical discontinuous change impacting organizational performance; and (b) human sense-making processes that can complement the machine learning capabilities for designing and implementing

  8. Nonfunctional Requirements: From Elicitation to Conceptual Models

    E-print Network

    Leite, Julio Cesar Sampaio do Prado

    Nonfunctional Requirements: From Elicitation to Conceptual Models Luiz Marcio Cysneiros, Member by treating NFRs as first class requirements. We present a process to elicit NFRs, analyze of the resulting conceptual models. Index Terms--Software design, requirements elicitation, nonfunctional

  9. Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrachowitz, Markus; Fovet, Ophelie; Ruiz, Laurent; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Savenije, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are frequently characterized by what is often considered to be adequate calibration performances. In many cases, however, these models experience a substantial uncertainty and performance decrease in validation periods, thus resulting in poor predictive power. Besides the likely presence of data errors, this observation can point towards wrong or insufficient representations of the underlying processes and their heterogeneity. In other words, right results are generated for the wrong reasons. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency and to thereby satisfy the contrasting priorities of the need a) to increase model complexity and b) to limit model equifinality. In this study a stepwise model development approach is chosen to test the value of an exhaustive and systematic combined use of hydrological signatures, expert knowledge and readily available, yet anecdotal and rarely exploited, hydrological information for increasing model consistency towards generating the right answer for the right reasons. A simple 3-box, 7 parameter, conceptual HBV-type model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph with comparatively high values for the 4 objective functions in the 5-year calibration period. However, closer inspection of the results showed a dramatic decrease of model performance in the 5-year validation period. In addition, assessing the model's skill to reproduce a range of 20 hydrological signatures including, amongst others, the flow duration curve, the autocorrelation function and the rising limb density, showed that it could not adequately reproduce the vast majority of these signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently model complexity was increased in a stepwise way to allow for more process heterogeneity. To limit model equifinality, increase in complexity was counter-balanced by a stepwise application of "realism constraints", inferred from expert knowledge (e.g. unsaturated storage capacity of hillslopes should exceed the one of wetlands) and anecdotal hydrological information (e.g. long-term estimates of actual evaporation obtained from the Budyko framework and long-term estimates of baseflow contribution) to ensure that the model is well behaved with respect to the modeller's perception of the system. A total of 11 model set-ups with increased complexity and an increased number of realism constraints was tested. It could be shown that in spite of largely unchanged calibration performance, compared to the simplest set-up, the most complex model set-up (12 parameters, 8 constraints) exhibited significantly increased performance in the validation period while uncertainty did not increase. In addition, the most complex model was characterized by a substantially increased skill to reproduce all 20 signatures, indicating a more suitable representation of the system. The results suggest that a model, "well" constrained by 4 calibration objective functions may still be an inadequate representation of the system and that increasing model complexity, if counter-balanced by realism constraints, can indeed increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce a range of hydrological signatures, but that it does not necessarily result in increased uncertainty. The results also strongly illustrate the need to move away from automated model calibration towards a more general expert-knowledge driven strategy of constraining models if a certain level of model consistency is to be achieved.

  10. Software Creation: An Expert System for Applying Design Process Knowledge in Automatic Software Design

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Behrouz H. FAR; Takeshi TAKIZAWA Zenya KOONO

    1993-01-01

    A goal of this project is automating software design by accumulating knowl- edge and experience of human designers.CREATOR2, an experimen- tal expert system that simulates behavior of human designers by apply- ing design process knowledge is introduced.A novel point is using a unified representation scheme for the design process knowledge, composed of design rules for detailing and tacit knowledge, and

  11. Developing intelligent agents for training systems that learn their strategies from expert players

    E-print Network

    Whetzel, Jonathan Hunt

    2005-11-01

    expert human players and translating it into the agent. A solution for this problem involves using computer systems that assist in the human expert knowledge elicitation process. In this thesis, we present an approach for developing an agent for the game...

  12. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  13. Interpreting statistical process control (SPC) charts using machine learning and expert system techniques

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mark Shewhart; Wright Patterson AFB

    1992-01-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. The SPC quality control tool has been under-utilized due to the lack of experienced personnel able to identify and interpret patterns within the control charts. The Special Projects Office of the Center for Supportability and Technology Insertion (CSTI) has developed a hybrid machine-learning and expert-system software

  14. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  15. Pecularities in development of optical discrete devices for data processing in expert medium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volosovich, Anatoly E.; Taturevich, I. I.; Kutusov, P. F.

    1995-11-01

    Consider some questions of optical discrete devices (ODD) in a distributed CAD system at various levels of computer support. It is necessary to standardize the optical design process in order for many more researchers to be able to design optoelectronic systems and the challenge in building these systems will shift to the design complexity and the cost of system fabrication. The analysis of new properties of the materials can be carried out with the help of expert system (ES). A conceptual design is a schematic idea of the way to make up the mutual relation between global material dualities and/or geometric properties. A knowledge base was formed in expert medium for development of discrete devices generating dynamic holograms.

  16. Chitosan-Elicited Callose Synthesis in Soybean Cells as a Ca2+-Dependent Process 1

    PubMed Central

    Köhle, Harald; Jeblick, Wolfgang; Poten, Frauke; Blaschek, Wolfgang; Kauss, Heinrich

    1985-01-01

    A new method for the rapid and quantitative fluorometric determination of callose is described. In suspension-cultured cells of Glycine max, synthesis of callose starts within 20 minutes of treatment with chitosan and parallels over hours the accumulation of 1,3-linked glucose in the wall. Poly-l-lysine also elicits callose synthesis. The effect of chitosan is enhanced by Polymyxin B at low concentrations; this antibiotic alone at higher concentrations can also induce callose synthesis. Callose synthesis is immediately stopped when external Ca2+ is bound by ethylene glycolbis-(2-aminoethyl ether)-N,N?-tetraacetate or cation exchange beads, and partly recovers upon restoration of 15 micromolar Ca2+. Callose synthesis is observed only when membrane perturbation causing electrolyte leakage from the cells is induced by one of the above treatments. It does not appear to be due to de novo synthesis or proteolytic activation of 1,3-?-d-glucan synthase. It is concluded that this Ca2+-dependent enzyme is directly activated by the influx of Ca2+ occurring concomitantly with the leakage of cell constituents. This suggestion is also discussed in conjunction with the chitosan-induced synthesis of phytoalexin in the same cells. Images Fig. 5 PMID:16664095

  17. Efficient production of flavonoids in Fagopyrum tataricum hairy root cultures with yeast polysaccharide elicitation and medium renewal process

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Jiang-Lin; Zou, Liang; Zhang, Cai-Qiong; Li, Yuan-Yuan; Peng, Lian-Xin; Xiang, Da-Bing; Zhao, Gang

    2014-01-01

    Background: Tartary buckwheat (Fagopyrum tataricum), an excellent edible and medicinal crop, has been widely used as a daily diet and traditional medicine for a long time. The major functional components of Fagopyrum tataricum have been demonstrated to be flavonoids (i.e. rutin and quercetin), which had notable andioxidant, antidiabetic, hypocholesterolemic and antitumor activities. Hairy root culture is a convenient and efficient plant tissue culture system for large scale production of bioactive metabolites. Objective: To enhance the functional flavonoids production in hairy root culture of F. tataricum. Materials and Methods: The elicitation treatment in combination with medium renewal strategy was applied for efficient promoting flavonoids production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures. Results: The exogenous yeast polysaccharide (YPS) elicitor notably stimulated the functional metabolites production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures, and the stimulation effect was concentration-dependent. Combination with the YPS elicitation (200 mg/L) and medium renewal process, the maximal flavonoids yield was enhanced to 47.13 mg/L, about 3.2-fold in comparison with the control culture of 14.88 mg/L. Moreover, this research also revealed the accumulation of these bioactive metabolites resulted from the stimulation of the phenylpropanoid pathway by YPS treatment. These results indicated that the F. tataricum hairy root culture could be an effective system for rutin and quercetin production. PMID:25210309

  18. Evaluating the Technical Adequacy of Electronic Prescribing Standards: Results of an Expert Panel Process

    PubMed Central

    Bell, Douglas S; Schueth, Anthony J.; Guinan, John Paul; Wu, Shinyi; Crosson, Jesse C.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To support more informed prescribing decisions, e-prescribing systems need data on patients’ medication histories and their drug-specific insurance coverage. We used an expert panel process to evaluate the technical adequacy of two standards for delivering this information, the Medication History function of the NCPDP SCRIPT Standard and the NCPDP Formulary and Benefit Standard. Methods: We convened a panel representing 14 organizations that had experience with these standards. Experts within each organization submitted narrative responses and ratings assessing the standards in 6 domains, including data quality, completeness, usability, and interoperability. Areas of disagreement were discussed in recorded teleconferences. Narrative was analyzed using a grounded-theory approach. Results: Panelists agreed that the structure of the Medication History Standard was adequate for delivering accurate and complete information but implementation problems made the data difficult to use for decision support. The panel also agreed that the Formulary and Benefit Standard was adequate to deliver formulary status lists, but other parts of the standard were not used consistently and group-level variations in coverage were not represented. A common problem for both standards was the lack of unambiguous drug identifiers; panelists agreed that RxNorm deserves further evaluation as a solution to this problem. Conclusions: A panel of industry experts found the basic structure of these two standards to be technically adequate, but to enable benefits for patient care, improvements are needed in the standards’ implementation. PMID:18999287

  19. How experts are chosen to inform public policy: can the process be improved?

    PubMed

    Rowe, Sylvia; Alexander, Nick; Weaver, Connie M; Dwyer, Johanna T; Drew, Christa; Applebaum, Rhona S; Atkinson, Stephanie; Clydesdale, Fergus M; Hentges, Eric; Higley, Nancy A; Westring, M Elizabeth

    2013-10-01

    The ever-increasing complexity of the food supply has magnified the importance of ongoing research into nutrition and food safety issues that have significant impact on public health. At the same time, ethical questions have been raised regarding conflict of interest, making it more challenging to form the expert panels that advise government agencies and public health officials in formulating nutrition and food safety policy. Primarily due to the growing complexity of the interactions among government, industry, and academic research institutions, increasingly stringent conflict-of-interest policies may have the effect of barring the most experienced and knowledgeable nutrition and food scientists from contributing their expertise on the panels informing public policy. This paper explores the issue in some depth, proposing a set of principles for determining considerations for service on expert advisory committees. Although the issues around scientific policy counsel and the selection of advisory panels clearly have global applicability, the context for their development had a US and Canadian focus in this work. The authors also call for a broader discussion in all sectors of the research community as to whether and how the process of empaneling food science and nutrition experts might be improved. PMID:23415508

  20. A Unified Model of Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ann M. Hickey; Alan M. Davis

    2004-01-01

    ABSTRACT: Effective requirements elicitation is essential to the success of software development,projects. Many papers have been written that promulgate specific elici- tation methods. A few model elicitation in general. However, none have yet modeled elicitation in a way that makes clear the critical role played by situational knowledge. This paper presents a unified model of the requirements elicitation process that

  1. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  2. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  3. PAORE: Package Oriented Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Junzo Kato; Morio Nagata; Shuichiro Yamamoto; Motoshi Saeki; Haruhiko Kaiya; Hisayuki Horai; Atsushi Ohnishi; Seiichi Komiya; Kenji Watahiki

    2003-01-01

    We propose a new requirements elicitation method in the domains of ERP, CRM, and SCM by using specifications of several existing package software. We have analyzed the requirements elicitation processes of experienced analysts in a specific domain, and found that they clarify requirements by referring the specifications of existing packages that seem to be satisfied with customer's needs. This process

  4. Nonparametric Prior Elicitation using the Roulette Jeremy E. Oakley1

    E-print Network

    Oakley, Jeremy

    Nonparametric Prior Elicitation using the Roulette Method Jeremy E. Oakley1 , Alireza Daneshkhah2 of Statistics, Shahid Chamran University, Iran Abstract We consider the use of the roulette method for eliciting an expert's prob- ability density function. In the roulette method, the expert provides prob- abilities

  5. Development of Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents Using an Expert Consensus Process

    PubMed Central

    Hogan, Teresita M.; Losman, Eve D.; Carpenter, Christopher R.; Sauvigne, Karen; Irmiter, Cheryl; Emanuel, Linda; Leipzig, Rosanne M.

    2011-01-01

    Background The emergency department (ED) visit rate for older patients exceeds that of all age groups other than infants. The aging population will increase elder ED patient utilization to 35% to 60% of all visits. Older patients can have complex clinical presentations and be resource-intensive. Evidence indicates that emergency physicians fail to provide consistent high-quality care for elder ED patients, resulting in poor clinical outcomes. Objectives The objective was to develop a consensus document, “Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents,” by identified experts. This is a minimum set of behaviorally based performance standards that all residents should be able to demonstrate by completion of their residency training. Methods This consensus-based process utilized an inductive, qualitative, multiphase method to determine the minimum geriatric competencies needed by emergency medicine (EM) residents. Assessments of face validity and reliability were used throughout the project. Results In Phase I, participants (n = 363) identified 12 domains and 300 potential competencies. In Phase II, an expert panel (n = 24) clustered the Phase I responses, resulting in eight domains and 72 competencies. In Phase III, the expert panel reduced the competencies to 26. In Phase IV, analysis of face validity and reliability yielded a 100% consensus for eight domains and 26 competencies. The domains identified were atypical presentation of disease; trauma, including falls; cognitive and behavioral disorders; emergent intervention modifications; medication management; transitions of care; pain management and palliative care; and effect of comorbid conditions. Conclusions The Geriatric Competencies for EM Residents is a consensus document that can form the basis for EM residency curricula and assessment to meet the demands of our aging population. PMID:20370765

  6. The linear programming alternative to policy capturing for eliciting criteria weights in the performance appraisal process

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. Zappe

    1995-01-01

    An important aspect of management is the periodic performance appraisal (PA) of subordinates. This paper focuses on inferring the criteria employed and weights attached to them by an assessor in any PA process. Linear programming (LP) is proposed as an alternative to policy capturing (PC) as the inference mechanism. The LP approach is illustrated and contrasted with regression-based PC approaches.

  7. Using Domain Ontology as Domain Knowledge for Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Haruhiko Kaiya; Motoshi Saeki

    2006-01-01

    Domain knowledge is one of crucial factors to get a great success in requirements elicitation of high quality, and only domain experts, not requirements analysts, have it. We pro- pose a new requirements elicitation method ORE (Ontology based Requirements Elicitation), where a domain ontology can be used as domain knowledge. In our method, a do- main ontology plays a role

  8. Neonatal nurse practitioner role transition: the process of reattaining expert status.

    PubMed

    Cusson, Regina M; Strange, Sally Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Neonatal nurse practitioners (NNPs) have managed care for high-risk hospitalized infants in the United States for over 30 years. The journey from being expert nurse to being novice NNP and then finally to being expert NNP is fraught with many challenges. This study used a qualitative descriptive design to describe advanced practice role transition among 70 NNPs. The data consisted of participants' written responses to open-ended questions. Four themes emerged that depicted a linear progression of the transition process from school preparation to beginning feelings in the new role and then development into a more confident practice. Theme 1: First impressions emphasized the ambivalence novice NNPs experienced regarding their preparedness for the role during a stressful and exciting adjustment period. Theme 2: The transition demonstrated the overwhelmingly similar feelings of anxiety, insecurity, exhaustion, and lack of confidence that plagued decision making. Theme 3: Making it as a real NNP indicated that the 1-year mark was a consistent, significant timeframe for feeling like a real NNP. Theme 4: The helpers and hinderers revealed the vulnerability of the novice NNPs to harsh criticism as well as the importance of support, especially from nurse colleagues. NNPs are a valuable resource; thus, enhancing transition is a worthy goal. PMID:19011499

  9. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 2, Code manual

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-09-01

    We recommend the reader first review Volume 1 of this document, Code Theory, before reading Volume 2. In this volume we make extensive use of terms and concepts described and defined in Volume 1 which are not redefined here to the same extent. To try to reduce the amount of redundant information, we have restricted this volume to the presentation of the expert system code and refer back to the theory described in Volume 1 when necessary. Verification and validation of the results are presented in Volume 3, Application, of this document. Volume 3 also presents the implementation of the component characteristics diagnostic approach through artificial neural networks discussed in Volume 1. We decided to present the component characteristics approach in Volume 3, as opposed to write a separate code manual for it, because the approach, although general, requires a case-by-case analysis. The purpose of this volume is to present the details of the expert system (ES) portion o the PRODIAG process diagnostic program. In addition, we present here the graphical diagnostics interface (GDI) and illustrate the combined use of the ES and GDI with a sample problem. For completeness, we provide the file names of all files, programs and major subroutines of these two systems, ES and GDI, and their corresponding location in the Reactor Analysis Division (RA) computer network and Reactor Engineering Division (RE) computer network as of 30 September 1995.

  10. Requirements Elicitation with Indirect Knowledge Elicitation Techniques: Comparison of Three Methods

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eva Hudlicka

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we describe a case study comparing the effectiveness of three indirect knowledge elicitation techniques: repertory grid analysis, multi-dimensional scaling, and hierarchical clustering. These techniques are used in situations where it is difficult for the expert to articulate their knowledge in response to direct questions. The techniques were compared in terms of the number of attributes elicited, the

  11. Parahippocampal cortex is involved in material processing via echoes in blind echolocation experts.

    PubMed

    Milne, Jennifer L; Arnott, Stephen R; Kish, Daniel; Goodale, Melvyn A; Thaler, Lore

    2015-04-01

    Some blind humans use sound to navigate by emitting mouth-clicks and listening to the echoes that reflect from silent objects and surfaces in their surroundings. These echoes contain information about the size, shape, location, and material properties of objects. Here we present results from an fMRI experiment that investigated the neural activity underlying the processing of materials through echolocation. Three blind echolocation experts (as well as three blind and three sighted non-echolocating control participants) took part in the experiment. First, we made binaural sound recordings in the ears of each echolocator while he produced clicks in the presence of one of three different materials (fleece, synthetic foliage, or whiteboard), or while he made clicks in an empty room. During fMRI scanning these recordings were played back to participants. Remarkably, all participants were able to identify each of the three materials reliably, as well as the empty room. Furthermore, a whole brain analysis, in which we isolated the processing of just the reflected echoes, revealed a material-related increase in BOLD activation in a region of left parahippocampal cortex in the echolocating participants, but not in the blind or sighted control participants. Our results, in combination with previous findings about brain areas involved in material processing, are consistent with the idea that material processing by means of echolocation relies on a multi-modal material processing area in parahippocampal cortex. PMID:25086210

  12. Expert Design of Industrial Systems: Formalizing the Design Process Douglas A. Bodner, T. Govindaraj, Karthik N. Karathur, Natalie F. Zerangue,

    E-print Network

    , ethnographic studies, industrial systems design, formalized design process. 1. Introduction Design research. Our approach is to study expert designers as they design facilities, focusing on warehouses in the design process. In this paper, we describe our research methodology, based on the concept of ethnographic

  13. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  14. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  15. Breast Implant–associated Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma: Updated Results from a Structured Expert Consultation Process

    PubMed Central

    Predmore, Zachary S.; Mattke, Soeren; van Busum, Kristin; Gidengil, Courtney A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite increased cases published on breast implant–associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL), important clinical issues remain unanswered. We conducted a second structured expert consultation process to rate statements related to the diagnosis, management, and surveillance of this disease, based on their interpretation of published evidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of 12 experts was selected based on nominations from national specialty societies, academic department heads, and recognized researchers in the United States. Results: Panelists agreed that (1) this disease should be called “BIA-ALCL”; (2) late seromas occurring >1 year after breast implantation should be evaluated via ultrasound, and if a seroma is present, the fluid should be aspirated and sent for culture, cytology, flow cytometry, and cell block to an experienced hematopathologist; (3) surgical removal of the affected implant and capsule (as completely as possible) should occur, which is sufficient to eradicate capsule-confined BIA-ALCL; (4) surveillance should consist of clinical follow-up at least every 6 months for at least 5 years and breast ultrasound yearly for at least 2 years; and (5) BIA-ALCL is generally a biologically indolent disease with a good prognosis, unless it extends beyond the capsule and/or presents as a mass. They firmly disagreed with statements that chemotherapy and radiation therapy should be given to all patients with BIA-ALCL. Conclusions: Our assessment yielded consistent results on a number of key, incompletely addressed issues regarding BIA-ALCL, but additional research is needed to support these statement ratings and enhance our understanding of the biology, treatment, and outcomes associated with this disease. PMID:25674377

  16. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques (Westchester, IL); Wei, Thomas Y. C. (Downers Grove, IL)

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  17. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  18. Integrated processing and analysis of hydrological data - not only for experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalicz, P.; Gribovszki, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The advent of the digital data logging results huge amount of hydrological time series from wide variety of hydrological phenomenon and water quality indicators. There are different sampling frequencies, irregular time steps, hand measured control data which are necessary treat in the same database. Some processes (e.g. the concentration of surface water) in small catchments and urban areas change quickly thus at this case for a rigorous study it is necessary to apply high frequency data sampling. Sometimes there is an error and the equidistant times series is broken. The error produced gap in the time series forms an obstacle for some type of calculations. There are many proprietary softwares process these data and gives solutions for the exercises. It can be found also open source solutions. Some years ago the open source R was chosen for analyzing data, which are measured in the Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment. This system is an excellent environment to organize and visualize hydrological time series. The contributing package called zoo has good abilities to work with different temporal resolutions. There are also many sophisticated statistical functions (e.g. auto- and cross-correlation functions, spectral analysis, filters, smoothing algorithms, etc.). During the years some functions was developed for data import, semi-automatic data processing, visualizations and analyses. In the last year in the umbrella of a project brings up a demand for visualize time series from non-R-experts. An easy-to-use graphical user interface was developed to solve this problem instead of cumbersome import/export processes or introduction to R course. This integrated utility uses the integrated Tcl/Tk package and gives possibilities to mouse driven visualization.

  19. Meeting of Experts on the Psychological Development of Children and Implications for the Educational Process. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Economic and Social Council, New York, NY.

    This final report of "Meeting of Experts" summarizes the major issues raised by participants of the spring 1974 UNESCO meeting on the psychological development of children from birth to 6 years of age and implications for the educational process. Five position papers, presented by individuals representing a broad range of interests and expertise…

  20. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  1. Assessing the potential of microcomputer-based expert systems in the process of agricultural technology transfer in Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Fresneda, P.S.V.

    1986-01-01

    This study focused on technology-transfer problems in the agricultural sector. The research hypotheses were to assess the potential use of microcomputer-based expert systems as (1) mechanisms for transferring technical information between agricultural research and rural extension programs, (2) training aids for extensionists' (county agents') programs, and (3) tools for gathering relevant information from farmers and extensionists for research and extension management. The study also addressed the integrative role that expert systems technology plays in the overall process of technology transfer in the agricultural area, as well as the self-improving feature the technology introduces to the Total System (Research + Extension + Farmers) of agricultural technology development. A prototype expert system was developed for diagnosing and recommending treatment for selected potato diseases. In an experiment carried out in an extension organization in Brazil, 56 extensionists used the prototype and filled out a questionnaire designed to test the research hypotheses. Findings of the study indicate that microcomputer-based expert-system technology has the potential to accomplish the three objectives presented above.

  2. Eliciting Univariate Probability Distributions Jeremy E. Oakley

    E-print Network

    Oakley, Jeremy

    the expert. Two or more of these individuals could be the same person. In Bayesian decision theory, the decision-maker should use his or her own probability distribution for in the decision-making problem that the elicitation involves three individuals. Firstly, there is a decision- maker who needs to know for a decision

  3. An example of expert system on numerical modelling system in coastal processes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. W. Chau; W. Chen

    2001-01-01

    With the advent of artificial intelligence technology as well as the widespread popularity of desktop microcomputers in recent years, integration of this new technology with the traditional numerical modelling system becomes a current trend in order to solve various engineering problems. It renders a more intelligent and user-friendly system on the problem domain. In this paper, a knowledge-based expert system

  4. Automatic document classification: natural language processing, statistical analysis, and expert system techniques used together

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. J. Blosseville; Georges Hébrail; M. G. Monteil; N. Pénot

    1992-01-01

    In this paper we describe an automated method of classifying research project descriptions: a human expert classifies a sample set of projects into a set of disjoint and pre-defined classes, and then the computer learns from this sample how to classify new projects into these classes. Both textual and non-textual information associated with the projects are used in the learning

  5. Online Search + Logic Programming = Subject Bibliography: An Expert Systems Approach to Bibliographic Processing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lirov, Yuval; Lirov, Viktor

    1990-01-01

    Describes the development of a knowledge-based system, REX, that creates subject bibliographies by downloading reference material from an online bibliographic service. The expert systems architecture is explained, use of Prolog is described, and creation of the subject knowledge base and an author index are discussed. (10 references) (LRW)

  6. SPARSE—an expert system for alarm processing and operator assistance in substations control centers

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Zita A. Vale; M. Fernanda Fernandes; A. Machado e Moura; Albino Marques

    1994-01-01

    In case of occurrence of an incident in an electrical network, several hundreds of messages per minute may be presented to Control Center operators. This makes very difficult the identification of the fault and to decide about the required actions in order to minimize the consequences of the incident and to restore the service.This paper describes an expert system named

  7. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  8. PMI: Knowledge Elicitation and De Bono's Thinking Tools

    E-print Network

    Easterbrook, Steve

    PMI: Knowledge Elicitation and De Bono's Thinking Tools M-M. Portmann & S. M. Easterbrook School's thinking tools, the PMI (plus - minus - interesting) and built a knowledge elicitation tool for use in a domain where the expert's responses are likely to be based on unquestioned judgements. The tool requires

  9. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  10. PRODIAG: Combined expert system\\/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 1, Theory

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Reifman; T. Y. C. Wei; J. E. Vitela

    1995-01-01

    The function of the PRODIAG code is to diagnose on-line the root cause of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) system transient with trace back to the identification of the malfunctioning component using the T-H instrumentation signals exclusively. The code methodology is based on the Al techniques of automated reasoning\\/expert systems (ES) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The research and development objective is

  11. Neural correlates of motion processing through echolocation, source hearing, and vision in blind echolocation experts and sighted echolocation novices.

    PubMed

    Thaler, L; Milne, J L; Arnott, S R; Kish, D; Goodale, M A

    2014-01-01

    We have shown in previous research (Thaler L, Arnott SR, Goodale MA. PLoS One 6: e20162, 2011) that motion processing through echolocation activates temporal-occipital cortex in blind echolocation experts. Here we investigated how neural substrates of echo-motion are related to neural substrates of auditory source-motion and visual-motion. Three blind echolocation experts and twelve sighted echolocation novices underwent functional MRI scanning while they listened to binaural recordings of moving or stationary echolocation or auditory source sounds located either in left or right space. Sighted participants' brain activity was also measured while they viewed moving or stationary visual stimuli. For each of the three modalities separately (echo, source, vision), we then identified motion-sensitive areas in temporal-occipital cortex and in the planum temporale. We then used a region of interest (ROI) analysis to investigate cross-modal responses, as well as laterality effects. In both sighted novices and blind experts, we found that temporal-occipital source-motion ROIs did not respond to echo-motion, and echo-motion ROIs did not respond to source-motion. This double-dissociation was absent in planum temporale ROIs. Furthermore, temporal-occipital echo-motion ROIs in blind, but not sighted, participants showed evidence for contralateral motion preference. Temporal-occipital source-motion ROIs did not show evidence for contralateral preference in either blind or sighted participants. Our data suggest a functional segregation of processing of auditory source-motion and echo-motion in human temporal-occipital cortex. Furthermore, the data suggest that the echo-motion response in blind experts may represent a reorganization rather than exaggeration of response observed in sighted novices. There is the possibility that this reorganization involves the recruitment of "visual" cortical areas. PMID:24133224

  12. Multi-session transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) elicits inflammatory and regenerative processes in the rat brain.

    PubMed

    Rueger, Maria Adele; Keuters, Meike Hedwig; Walberer, Maureen; Braun, Ramona; Klein, Rebecca; Sparing, Roland; Fink, Gereon Rudolf; Graf, Rudolf; Schroeter, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is increasingly being used in human studies as an adjuvant tool to promote recovery of function after stroke. However, its neurobiological effects are still largely unknown. Electric fields are known to influence the migration of various cell types in vitro, but effects in vivo remain to be shown. Hypothesizing that tDCS might elicit the recruitment of cells to the cortex, we here studied the effects of tDCS in the rat brain in vivo. Adult Wistar rats (n?=?16) were randomized to either anodal or cathodal stimulation for either 5 or 10 consecutive days (500 µA, 15 min). Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) was given systemically to label dividing cells throughout the experiment. Immunohistochemical analyses ex vivo included stainings for activated microglia and endogenous neural stem cells (NSC). Multi-session tDCS with the chosen parameters did not cause a cortical lesion. An innate immune response with early upregulation of Iba1-positive activated microglia occurred after both cathodal and anodal tDCS. The involvement of adaptive immunity as assessed by ICAM1-immunoreactivity was less pronounced. Most interestingly, only cathodal tDCS increased the number of endogenous NSC in the stimulated cortex. After 10 days of cathodal stimulation, proliferating NSC increased by ?60%, with a significant effect of both polarity and number of tDCS sessions on the recruitment of NSC. We demonstrate a pro-inflammatory effect of both cathodal and anodal tDCS, and a polarity-specific migratory effect on endogenous NSC in vivo. Our data suggest that tDCS in human stroke patients might also elicit NSC activation and modulate neuroinflammation. PMID:22928032

  13. Combining Analytical Hierarchy Process and Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering in Search of Expert Consensus in Green Corridors Development Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

    2013-07-01

    Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts—landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers—revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

  14. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  15. A New Approach to Software Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Prasad Rajagopal; Roger Y. Lee; Thomas Ahlswede; Chia-chu Chiang; Dale Karolak

    2005-01-01

    Requirements elicitation is both the hardest and most critical part of software development, since errors at this beginning stage propagate through the development process and are the hardest to repair later. This paper proposes an improved process for requirements elicitation. The key improvements are: (1) to train the non-technical stakeholders (primarily the users) in the capabilities and limitations of computer

  16. Informational Scenarios for Data Warehouse Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Naveen Prakash; Yogesh Singh; Anjana Gosain

    2004-01-01

    \\u000a We propose a requirements elicitation process for a data warehouse (DW) that identifies its information contents. These contents\\u000a support the set of decisions that can be made. Thus, if the information needed to take every decision is elicited, then the\\u000a total information determines DW contents. We propose an Informational Scenario as the means to elicit information for a decision.\\u000a An

  17. Role of intuition in the decision process of expert ski guides 

    E-print Network

    Stewart-Patterson, Iain; Patterson, Iain Stewart

    2014-07-04

    High quality decision-making can be produced through a sophisticated analytical process in addition to an intuitive process. A high quality intuitive process is dependent on an extensive repertoire of previous patterns ...

  18. CABPRO: An expert system for process planning multiwire cables. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.

    1994-04-01

    CABPRO (CABle PROcessor) is a set of computer programs using Artificial Intelligence programming to automatically generate process plans and work instructions in support of the manufacture of multiwire cables. Development of these programs required selecting appropriate hardware and software tools, defining engineering process planning activities, acquiring and representing process planning knowledge, and creating a prototype system. A successful prototype was developed and demonstrated.

  19. Automated visual inspection expert system for multivariate statistical process control chart

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jrjung Lyu; Ming-nan Chen

    2009-01-01

    Automated manufacturing is increasingly common; however, automating inspection as a part of quality management processes is problematic, creating producer and consumer risk. Manufacturing plants can suffer several defect types. These defects result from different processes and cause different product failures. Numerous scenarios currently exist that require simultaneous monitoring or control of two or more quality-related process characteristics and in which

  20. Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

    PubMed Central

    Staccini, Pascal M.; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

    2002-01-01

    Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

  1. AN APPROACH TO AUTOMATE REQUIREMENTS ELICITATION AND SPECIFICATION

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Neil W. Kassel; Brian A. Malloy

    This paper presents an approach to partially automate the requirements elicitation and specification processes. Because human interaction is of vital importance in requirements elicitation, it is almost impossible and impractical to fully automate the elicitation process. Our approach, combined with other established techniques, will increase the probability that the customer states real and nearly complete requirements. We have developed a

  2. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  3. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 1, Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.; Vitela, J.E.

    1995-09-01

    The function of the PRODIAG code is to diagnose on-line the root cause of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) system transient with trace back to the identification of the malfunctioning component using the T-H instrumentation signals exclusively. The code methodology is based on the Al techniques of automated reasoning/expert systems (ES) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The research and development objective is to develop a generic code methodology which would be plant- and T-H-system-independent. For the ES part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be implemented through input only and at that only through a Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (PID) database. For the ANN part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be through the ANN training data for normal component characteristics and the same PID database information. PRODIAG would, therefore, be generic and portable from T-H system to T-H system and from plant to plant without requiring any code-related modifications except for the PID database and the ANN training with the normal component characteristics. This would give PRODIAG the generic feature which numerical simulation plant codes such as TRAC or RELAP5 have. As the code is applied to different plants and different T-H systems, only the connectivity information, the operating conditions and the normal component characteristics are changed, and the changes are made entirely through input. Verification and validation of PRODIAG would, be T-H system independent and would be performed only ``once``.

  4. Techniques for requirements elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Joseph A. Goguen; Charlotte Linde

    1993-01-01

    The authors survey and evaluate techniques for eliciting requirements of computer-based systems, paying particular attention to dealing with social issues. The methods surveyed include introspection, interviews, questionnaires, and protocol, conversation, interaction, and discourse analyses. The last three techniques grew out of ethnomethodology and sociolinguistics. They can elicit tacit knowledge by observing actual interactions in the workplace, and can also be

  5. Emotion elicitation using films

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James J. Gross; Robert W. Levenson

    1995-01-01

    Researchers interested in emotion have long struggled with the problem of how to elicit emotional responses in the laboratory. In this article, we summarise five years of work to develop a set of films that reliably elicit each of eight emotional states (amusement, anger, contentment, disgust, fear, neutral, sadness, and surprise). After evaluating over 250 films, we showed selected film

  6. Using expert models in human reliability analysis-a dependence assessment method based on fuzzy logic.

    PubMed

    Podofillini, Luca; Dang, Vinh; Zio, Enrico; Baraldi, Piero; Librizzi, Massimo

    2010-08-01

    In human reliability analysis (HRA), dependence analysis refers to assessing the influence of the failure of the operators to perform one task on the failure probabilities of subsequent tasks. A commonly used approach is the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP). The assessment of the dependence level in THERP is a highly subjective judgment based on general rules for the influence of five main factors. A frequently used alternative method extends the THERP model with decision trees. Such trees should increase the repeatability of the assessments but they simplify the relationships among the factors and the dependence level. Moreover, the basis for these simplifications and the resulting tree is difficult to trace. The aim of this work is a method for dependence assessment in HRA that captures the rules used by experts to assess dependence levels and incorporates this knowledge into an algorithm and software tool to be used by HRA analysts. A fuzzy expert system (FES) underlies the method. The method and the associated expert elicitation process are demonstrated with a working model. The expert rules are elicited systematically and converted into a traceable, explicit, and computable model. Anchor situations are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The expert model and the FES-based dependence assessment method make the expert rules accessible to the analyst in a usable and repeatable way, with an explicit and traceable basis. PMID:20497396

  7. Use of expert judgement in the HLW regulatory program: US NRC staff draft guidance

    SciTech Connect

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1996-12-01

    As with other licensing decisions, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) decision to grant or deny a license for a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain will be based on a combination of fact and judgment as set forth by the Department of Energy (DOE) in a license application. Subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting repository performance for thousands of years. The NRC has traditionally accepted expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the facts which support a license application. Recently, the Performance Assessment and High-level Waste Integration Branch of the NRC has developed regulatory guidance in the form of a draft branch technical position (BTP) that identifies circumstances which may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e. expert elicitation) and describes acceptable procedures for conducting such expert elicitations.

  8. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  9. The Naturally Processed CD95L Elicits a c-Yes\\/Calcium\\/PI3K-Driven Cell Migration Pathway

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sébastien Tauzin; Benjamin Chaigne-Delalande; Eric Selva; Nadine Khadra; Sophie Daburon; Cécile Contin-Bordes; Patrick Blanco; Jacques Le Seyec; Thomas Ducret; Laurent Counillon; Jean-François Moreau; Paul Hofman; Pierre Vacher; Patrick Legembre

    2011-01-01

    Patients affected by chronic inflammatory disorders display high amounts of soluble CD95L. This homotrimeric ligand arises from the cleavage by metalloproteases of its membrane-bound counterpart, a strong apoptotic inducer. In contrast, the naturally processed CD95L is viewed as an apoptotic antagonist competing with its membrane counterpart for binding to CD95. Recent reports pinpointed that activation of CD95 may attract myeloid

  10. More-Or-Less Elicitation (MOLE): Testing A Heuristic Elicitation Method

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael D. Lee; Steve H. Begg

    Abstract Elicitation of people’s knowledge,is a central methodological challenge for psychology, with important impacts in many technical disciplines and,industrial settings. The need,to convert,an,expert’s beliefs into a useable,format,is of particular importance when judgments,and decisions are made under,uncertainty. Simply asking,a person,for their best estimate or to estimate a range is subject to many,biases – e.g., overconfidence – and methods for eliciting information

  11. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  12. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  13. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or hobbies). Unify myriad collections of data into Web-enabled repository that could easily be searched for relevant data.

  14. Expert Biogeographers

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Marsha Bednarski

    2006-04-01

    Instead of having students read about biomes in a textbook, why not have them become expert biogeographers? Once students have learned what a biogeographer does through an on-line search, they will take on the role as expert biogeographer. In this hypothetical scenario, they have been hired by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to research a land biome area. As researchers, they will be required to do a variety of inquiry-based tasks, which are outlined in the article.

  15. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  16. A Framework for Requirements Elicitation through Mixed-Initiative Dialogue

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Renaud Lecoeuche; Chris Mellish; David Stuart Robertson

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we present our work on requirements elicitation. The elicitation process is a complex task which necessitates computer support. Elicitation sys- tems should ideally help their users check the correct- ness of the specifications obtained but also actively guide them in the acquisition of the requirements. We consider hereafter systems that communicate in natural language. We describe a

  17. Oil palm fresh fruit bunch ripeness classification based on rule- based expert system of ROI image processing technique results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfatni, M. S. M.; Shariff, A. R. M.; Abdullah, M. Z.; Marhaban, M. H.; Shafie, S. B.; Bamiruddin, M. D.; Saaed, O. M. B.

    2014-06-01

    There is a processing need for a fast, easy and accurate classification system for oil palm fruit ripeness. Such a system will be invaluable to farmers and plantation managers who need to sell their oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) for the mill as this will avoid disputes. In this paper,a new approach was developed under the name of expert rules-based systembased on the image processing techniques results of thethree different oil palm FFB region of interests (ROIs), namely; ROI1 (300x300 pixels), ROI2 (50x50 pixels) and ROI3 (100x100 pixels). The results show that the best rule-based ROIs for statistical colour feature extraction with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier at 94% were chosen as well as the ROIs that indicated results higher than the rule-based outcome, such as the ROIs of statistical colour feature extraction with artificial neural network (ANN) classifier at 94%, were selected for further FFB ripeness inspection system.

  18. Elicitability and Knowledge-Free Elicitation with Peer Prediction

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    verification, and provide a mechanism for such elicitation. This mechanism requires that the designer knowElicitability and Knowledge-Free Elicitation with Peer Prediction Peter Zhang Harvard University peterzhang@post.harvard.edu Yiling Chen Harvard University yiling@seas.harvard.edu ABSTRACT The elicitation

  19. Functional Analysis Systems Technique (F.A.S.T.) as a Group Knowledge Elicitation Method for Model Building

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. E. Bartolomei; T. Miller; Wright-Patterson AFB OH

    Information gathering is the most important and often the most difficult phase of dynamic system model building. Many methods have been proposed to elicit knowledge from systems experts. Most modelers avoid the social and political barriers found in group elicitation and have focused on various interviewing techniques. If properly employed, group elicitation can be an effective and extremely efficient method

  20. The Effects of Word Processing Software on User Satisfaction: An Empirical Study of Micro, Mini, and Mainframe Computers Using an Interactive Artificial Intelligence Expert-System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rushinek, Avi; Rushinek, Sara

    1984-01-01

    Describes results of a system rating study in which users responded to WPS (word processing software) questions. Study objectives were data collection and evaluation of variables; statistical quantification of WPS's contribution (along with other variables) to user satisfaction; design of an expert system to evaluate WPS; and database update and…

  1. Hot potato: expert-consumer differences in the perception of a second-generation novel food.

    PubMed

    Hagemann, Kit S; Scholderer, Joachim

    2009-07-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite widespread efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in risk management has been low. Social scientists have identified various reasons for this, including a disagreement between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the ways in which experts and consumers understand the benefits and risks associated with a genetically modified example crop. Two qualitative studies were conducted. In Study 1, mental models were elicited from 24 experts by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure. In Study 2, mental models were elicited from 25 consumers by means of in-depth interviews. As expected, the expert mental models were focused on the types of hazards that can realistically be addressed under current regulatory frameworks, whereas the consumers were often more concerned about issues outside the scope of current legislation. Moreover, the experts tended to define risk and benefit in terms of detailed chains of cause-effect relationships between variables for which clear definitions and measurement rules exist. The concepts the consumers used when reasoning about biological processes were very abstract, suggesting that the participants had, at most, a holistic understanding. In line with this, issues of uncertainty played a prominent role for the consumers. PMID:19392674

  2. Nutrition Expert

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The Nutrition Expert is a group of Registered dietitians providing nutrition information to the web community online. Topics include weight loss, cholesterol, sports nutrition, and diabetes, and additional directories are under construction. They also offer a for-fee telephone consulting service which lets you pay by check over the phone.

  3. Expert systems in space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leinweber, David

    The requirements of expert systems for monitoring and real-time control of processes on space platforms and the Space Station are described, along with a prototype system. Emphasis is on process intelligent control (PICON) written in Lisp, giving the expert system the capability of taking care of problems while maintaining operational continuity. Design criteria include rapid focusing on relevant sensors, fast data collection during critical events, analysis of the temporal history of sensor values, discerning the causes of anomalies from their effects through knowledge of the underlying process structure, and amenability to command sequence inputs. Techniques for using PICON to develop expert systems for specific roles and with the capability of interacting with other systems, for knowledge engineering, and to imbue the system with the ability to reason about data quality are explored. A sample application, control of the electrical power system for the Space Station, is outlined.

  4. Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

  5. Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Methods We used the “elicitation of expert opinions” method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. Results We found substantial disparity between experts’ answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). Conclusions Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners’ difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results. PMID:24635942

  6. Expert Knowledge Elicitations in a Procurement Card Context

    E-print Network

    Lin, Xiaodong

    · MOVING FORWARD · CONCLUSION 2 #12;INTRODUCTION · Why P-card has higher fraud risk than employee credit card? ­ P-card owners have a higher number of transactions on a normal basis, while employee credit-approval is required, while normally employee credit card transactions need to be approved by the manager before AMEX

  7. The use of probability elicitation in the high-level nuclear waste regulation program

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Aaron R. Dewispelare; L. Tandy Herren; Robert T. Clemen

    1995-01-01

    Expert judgement elicitation is expected to be used in the performance assessments (PA) of the long-term behavior of high-level waste (HLW) geologic repositories. As a preparation for an effective review of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) PA, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is evaluating the mechanics of eliciting expert judgements. One of the objectives of this evaluation is to

  8. Knowledge Engineering Tools for Probability Elicitation L. R. Hope A. E. Nicholson K. B. Korb

    E-print Network

    Nicholson, Ann

    Knowledge Engineering Tools for Probability Elicitation L. R. Hope A. E. Nicholson K. B. Korb June engineers. This requires domain experts to provide unreasonably accurate probability estimates. To solve node customisation and sliding scale binary elicitation; Verbal Elicitor allows entry of probability

  9. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  10. Ontology-Driven Guidance for Requirements Elicitation

    E-print Network

    Ontology-Driven Guidance for Requirements Elicitation Stefan Farfeleder1 , Thomas Moser2 , Andreas: requirements elicitation, domain ontology, elicitation guid- ance, requirements engineering. 1 Introduction Heidelberg 2011 #12;Ontology-Driven Guidance for Requirements Elicitation 213 backgrounds and terminologies

  11. Nonfunctional Requirements: From Elicitation to Conceptual Models

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Luiz Marcio Cysneiros; Julio Cesar Sampaio Do Prado Leite

    2004-01-01

    Nonfunctional Requirements (NFRs) have been frequently neglected or forgotten in software design. They have been presented as a second or even third class type of requirement, frequently hidden inside notes. We tackle this problem by treating NFRs as first class requirements. We present a process to elicit NFRs, analyze their interdependencies, and trace them to functional conceptual models. We focus

  12. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1) defining the range of concerns of the public toward different bioremediation strategies and long-term stewardship; (2) creating materials and delivery methods that address bioremediation issues; and (3) assessing the effectiveness of the consensus workshop in identifying concerns about bioremediation and involving the public in a dialogue about their use. After a brief description of the Idaho workshop, we discuss the range of concerns articulated by the participants about bioremediation, discuss the materials and delivery methods used to communicate information about bioremediation, and assess the effectiveness of the consensus workshop. In summary we found that panel members in general: understood complex technical issues, especially when given enough time in a facilitated discussion with experts; are generally accepting of in situ bioremediation, but concerned about costs, safety, and effectiveness of the technology; are concerned equally about technology and decision processes; and liked the consensus workshop approach to learning about bioremediation.

  13. Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-01-01

    It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

  14. A scenario-based methodology for conducting requirements elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    H. Holbrook III

    1990-01-01

    Requirements analysis is the process of identifying a user's needs and determining what to build in an a system. Within requirements analysis is the process of requirements elicitation in which tacit information about \\

  15. Making Rational Decisions using Adaptive Utility Elicitation Urszula Chajewska

    E-print Network

    Parr, Ronald

    Making Rational Decisions using Adaptive Utility Elicitation Urszula Chajewska Computer Science requires full knowledge of the util­ ity function of the person affected by the decisions. How­ ever and the complexity of the utility elicitation process. Given that the amount of utility information we can acquire

  16. Heavyweight Semantic Inducement for Requirement Elicitation and Analysis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Liu Wei; He Ke-Qing; Wang Jiang; Peng Rong

    2007-01-01

    Requirement process for networked software is a human-web interaction. Requirement elicitation and analysis are emerging as a critical issue for supporting requirement modeling, as these are designed to satisfy diverse stakeholder service needs and evolution network environment. This paper proposed a heavyweight semantic inducement (HSI) approach for requirement elicitation and analysis. The HSI approach enables to encapsulate the domain knowledge

  17. 158 Emotion Elicitation Emotion Elicitation With Neurological Patients

    E-print Network

    Levenson, Robert W.

    158 Emotion Elicitation 10 Emotion Elicitation With Neurological Patients Robert W. Levenson 158 This chapter presents a set of issues and methods related to studying emotional functioning in neurological to inform research using the other abound. Patient Studies Studies of neurological patients have been

  18. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  19. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  20. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  1. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  2. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  3. Viewpoints for requirements elicitation: a practical approach I. Sommerville, P. Sawyer and S. Viller

    E-print Network

    Sommerville, Ian

    Viewpoints for requirements elicitation: a practical approach I. Sommerville, P. Sawyer and S how `concerns', which are key business drivers of the requirements elicitation process, may be used to elicit and validate system requirements. They are decomposed into questions which must be answered

  4. Structured Digital Storytelling for Eliciting Software Requirements in the ICT4D Domain

    E-print Network

    Boyer, Edmond

    Structured Digital Storytelling for Eliciting Software Requirements in the ICT4D Domain Daniel projects present, conventional requirements elicitation techniques are often inapplicable or insufficient the stories are elicited, they are processed and the results are fed into a traditional requirements

  5. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  6. The use of fuzzy control system methods for characterizing expert judgment uncertainty distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.E.; Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Parkinson, W.J.; Meyer, M.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Jamshidi, M. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1998-12-01

    Fuzzy logic methods permit experts to assess parameters affecting performance of components/systems in natural language terms more familiar to them (e.g., high, good, etc.). Recognizing that there is a cost associated with obtaining more precise information, the authors particular interest is in cases where the relationship between the condition of the system and its performance is not well understood, especially for some sets of possible operating conditions, and where developing a better understanding is very difficult and/or expensive. The methods allow the experts to make use of the level of precision with which they understand the underlying process. The authors consider and compare various methods of formulating the process just described, with an application in reliability analysis where expert information forms a significant (if not sole) source of data for reliability analysis. The flow of information through the fuzzy-control-systems based analysis is studied using a simple, hypothetical problem which mimics the structure used to elicit expert information in Parse. They also characterize the effect of using progressively more refined information and examine the use of fuzzy-based methods as data pooling/fusion mechanisms.

  7. Conceptual design and analysis methodology for knowledge acquisition for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Adiga, S.

    1986-01-01

    The field analysis of Artificial Intelligence, particularly expert systems, has been identified by experts as a technology with the most promise for handling complex information processing needs of modern manufacturing systems. Knowledge acquisition or the process of building the knowledge base for expert systems needs precise and well-formulated methods to pass from being an art to theory. This research in a step in that direction. The approach evolves at the conceptual level from Pask's work on conversation theory which provides the minimal structural requirement for development and validation of the method. An integrated approach is developed with guidelines for structured knowledge elicitation, analysis, and mapping of the verbal data into well-defined object-oriented generic knowledge structures capable of representing both structural and operational knowledge. The research extends and blends the concepts of protocol analysis, object-oriented design, and semantic data modeling into an integrated framework. This methodology, being a domain-independent development, theoretically can be used to acquire knowledge for any expert performance system.

  8. World Bank Experts Guide

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Created with reporters and editors in mind, the World Bank Experts Guide provides World Bank experts that are available to comment on to the media on a wide variety of topics. The list of experts may be viewed by name of expert or by subject. Each expert is given his or her own Webpage, which includes a short biography, expertise, and languages spoken, along with a photograph and related links. For ease of use, several "hot topics" are highlighted including AIDS/HIV and debt relief. This site gives an awe-inspiring look at the variety of experts working for the World Bank.

  9. How experiences become data: the process of eliciting adverse event, medical history and concomitant medication reports in antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurately characterizing a drug’s safety profile is essential. Trial harm and tolerability assessments rely, in part, on participants’ reports of medical histories, adverse events (AEs), and concomitant medications. Optimal methods for questioning participants are unclear, but different methods giving different results can undermine meta-analyses. This study compared methods for eliciting such data and explored reasons for dissimilar participant responses. Methods Participants from open-label antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials in two distinct sites (South Africa, n?=?18 [all HIV positive]; Tanzania, n?=?80 [86% HIV positive]) were asked about ill health and treatment use by sequential use of (1) general enquiries without reference to particular conditions, body systems or treatments, (2) checklists of potential health issues and treatments, (3) in-depth interviews. Participants’ experiences of illness and treatment and their reporting behaviour were explored qualitatively, as were trial clinicians’ experiences with obtaining participant reports. Outcomes were the number and nature of data by questioning method, themes from qualitative analyses and a theoretical interpretation of participants’ experiences. Results There was an overall cumulative increase in the number of reports from general enquiry through checklists to in-depth interview; in South Africa, an additional 12 medical histories, 21 AEs and 27 medications; in Tanzania an additional 260 medical histories, 1 AE and 11 medications. Checklists and interviews facilitated recognition of health issues and treatments, and consideration of what to report. Information was sometimes not reported because participants forgot, it was considered irrelevant or insignificant, or they feared reporting. Some medicine names were not known and answers to questions were considered inferior to blood tests for detecting ill health. South African inpatient volunteers exhibited a “trial citizenship”, working to achieve researchers’ goals, while Tanzanian outpatients sometimes deferred responsibility for identifying items to report to trial clinicians. Conclusions Questioning methods and trial contexts influence the detection of adverse events, medical histories and concomitant medications. There should be further methodological work to investigate these influences and find appropriate questioning methods. PMID:24229315

  10. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Jackson, J.R. (Southwest Baptist Univ., Bolivar, MO (USA))

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  11. The Development of Expert Face Processing: Are Infants Sensitive to Normal Differences in Second-Order Relational Information?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayden, Angela; Bhatt, Ramesh S.; Reed, Andrea; Corbly, Christine R.; Joseph, Jane E.

    2007-01-01

    Sensitivity to second-order relational information (i.e., spatial relations among features such as the distance between eyes) is a vital part of achieving expertise with face processing. Prior research is unclear on whether infants are sensitive to second-order differences seen in typical human populations. In the current experiments, we examined…

  12. What Are Expert Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Agapeyeff, A.

    1986-01-01

    Intended for potential business users, this paper describes the main characteristics of expert systems; discusses practical use considerations; presents a taxonomy of the systems; and reviews several expert system development projects in business and industry. (MBR)

  13. [Studies of visual mismatch negativity elicited by cartoon facial expressions].

    PubMed

    Ji, Shumei; Li, Wei; Liu, Peng; Bian, Zhjie

    2013-06-01

    A modified "cross-modal delayed response" paradigm was used to investigate whether the visual mismatch negativity can be elicited by cartoon facial expressions, and to define the mechanism underlying automatic processing of facial expressions. Subjects taking part in the tests were instructed to discriminate the type of the tones they heard as quickly and accurately as possible, and to act merely when they heard the response imperative signal. Neutral, happy and angry faces were presented during intervals between a tone and a response imperative signal. Visual mismatch negativity (VMMN) was obtained by subtracting the event - related potential (ERP) elicited by neutral faces from that elicited by happy faces or angry faces. The angry-related VMMN was more negative than happy-related VMMN, and both were more negative in the left than in the right cerebral hemisphere. The results indicated that VMMN can be elicited by the cartoon facial expressions, and the facial expressions can be processed automatically. PMID:23865303

  14. Battery Technology for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Expert Views about Prospects for Advancement.

    E-print Network

    Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

    Battery Technology for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Expert Views about Prospects for Advancement of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles approach to achieving these reductions is through electric, hybrid, or plug-in hybrid vehicles. One

  15. Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Erin D. Baker; Haewon Chon; Jeffrey M. Keisler

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion

  16. GOORE : Goal-Oriented and Ontology Driven Requirements Elicitation Method

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Masayuki Shibaoka; Haruhiko Kaiya; Motoshi Saeki

    2007-01-01

    Goal oriented modeling methods are one of the promising approaches to elicit requirements. However, the difficulties in goal\\u000a decomposition during requirements elicitation processes and a lack of the technique to utilize domain knowledge are obstacles\\u000a to make them widely used in industry community. This paper proposes a method call GOORE where a domain ontology is utilized\\u000a to support goal decomposition

  17. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  18. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W.; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills. PMID:25206348

  19. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  20. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-11-08

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - `expert elicitation.` This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal.

  1. Local Experts in Social Media

    E-print Network

    Bachani, Vandana

    2013-12-04

    The problem of finding topic experts on social networking sites has been a continued topic of research. This thesis addresses the problem of identifying local experts in social media systems like Twitter. Local experts are experts with a topical...

  2. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  3. DRAFT: TO APPEAR IN KNOWLEDGEBASED SYSTEMS JOURNAL: SPECIAL ISSUE ON HUMANCOMPUTER COLLABORATION, 1995 Intertwining Knowledge Delivery, Construction, and Elicitation

    E-print Network

    Nakakoji, Kumiyo

    , and elicitation processes supported by KID, designers gradually coevolve a design requirement and a solution­COMPUTER COLLABORATION, 1995 Intertwining Knowledge Delivery, Construction, and Elicitation: A Process Model for Human support human­computer collaboration by intertwining knowledge delivery, construction, and elicitation

  4. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hossain, Shamina S.

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The ?rst method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  5. Validation of expert systems with multiple experts

    E-print Network

    Mitri, Wajeeh Asad

    1991-01-01

    40 47 47 49 V CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 52 REFERENCES APPENDIX A Page APPENDIX B . 60 APPENDIX C . APPENDIX D . 66 APPENDIX E . 70 VITA . 78 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE Page An example of a hierarchy of experts. Four-stage development... of the initial set of rules snd transcript equivalents. 31 LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page I Results of knowledge acquisition survey. II Partial scores of agreement for test case number 1707. III Scores of agreement between BREXS and human experts. 42 IV Scores...

  6. Inverse Preference Elicitation for Dynamic Treatment Regimens

    E-print Network

    Murphy, Susan A.

    Inverse Preference Elicitation for Dynamic Treatment Regimens Dan Lizotte, Michael Bowling, Susan A Outcomes Contributions: Inverse Preference Elicitation & A Fast Exact Algorithm Example: Exploratory It All Schizophrenia is chronic, often requiring treatment changes due to lack of efficacy and

  7. Towards reasoning visualization in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1989-01-01

    Preliminary results are presented of ongoing research to develop visualization paradigms for expert systems reasoning processes. The results are based in part on a prototype implementation that is being developed to visualize the reasoning processes of a rule-based forward chaining expert system. The research is based on the premise that the presentation of information at the highest applicable conceptual level will enhance the assimilation of that information. Hierarchical levels in both the syntactic and semantic levels of reasoning in expert systems are described in detail.

  8. Collaborative Requirements Elicitation with Visualization Techniques

    E-print Network

    da Silva, Alberto Rodrigues

    Collaborative Requirements Elicitation with Visualization Techniques Diogo Duarte Instituto.silva@acm.org Abstract--Requirements elicitation is one of the first activities that tries to define the project scope and elicit user requirements. This activity relies in communication and cooperation between stakeholders

  9. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control for voicing with optimal coping effects in teachers. 2. A process of change--an expert's opinion.

    PubMed

    Van Opstal, Magda J M Carola

    2010-01-01

    A learning strategy is presented for eustress-euvoicing, which prevails over distress-disvoicing. It is based on the understanding of the mechanisms of stress-voicing, conceived as a dynamic circular process of interacting entities, i.e. stressors/signals-arousal/activation-emotion-coping-effects (SAECE), which is the rationale for a multidisciplinary approach in coaching professional voice users. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control (SHIPS) is directed by functional analysis and consists of awareness and change. Emotion, a mixture of appraisal, affect and movement, is the pivot in SHIPS. SHIPS with (student) teachers aims at the competence of voicing (V) in an optimal (O) way of coping (C), which means vocal communication that is effective (E) to meet a balance in physical, interpersonal and existential wellness when responding to demands and challenges in the individual teacher's (T) field of communication (VOCE-T). The process of change intends to influence the course of multiple interactions in SAECE. SHIPS (de)conditions distressors and eutressors related to (non)-integrated coping. The (student) teacher and coach are conscious and active participants in the process of change that aims at (un)learning of attitudes and skills for coping by VOCE-T. PMID:20093847

  10. Beyond metformin: safety considerations in the decision-making process for selecting a second medication for type 2 diabetes management: reflections from a diabetes care editors' expert forum.

    PubMed

    Cefalu, William T; Buse, John B; Del Prato, Stefano; Home, Philip D; LeRoith, Derek; Nauck, Michael A; Raz, Itamar; Rosenstock, Julio; Riddle, Matthew C

    2014-09-01

    The trend toward personalized management of diabetes has focused attention on the differences among available pharmacological agents in terms of mechanisms of action, efficacy, and, most important, safety. Clinicians must select from these features to develop individualized therapy regimens. In June 2013, a nine-member Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to review safety evidence for six major diabetes drug classes: insulin, sulfonylureas (SUs), thiazolidinediones (TZDs), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. This article, an outgrowth of the forum, summarizes well-delineated and theoretical safety concerns related to these drug classes, as well as the panelists' opinions regarding their best use in patients with type 2 diabetes. All of the options appear to have reasonably wide safety margins when used appropriately. Those about which we know the most-metformin, SUs, insulin, and perhaps now also TZDs-are efficacious in most patients and can be placed into a basic initial algorithm. However, these agents leave some clinical needs unmet. Selecting next steps is a more formidable process involving newer agents that are understood less well and for which there are unresolved questions regarding risk versus benefit in certain populations. Choosing a specific agent is not as important as implementing some form of early intervention and advancing rapidly to some form of combination therapy as needed. When all options are relatively safe given the benefits they confer, therapeutic decision making must rely on a personalized approach, taking into account patients' clinical circumstances, phenotype, pathophysiological defects, preferences, abilities, and costs. PMID:25147257

  11. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  12. An expert system for remote sensing

    SciTech Connect

    Goodenough, D.G.; Goldbery, M.; Plunkett, G.; Zelek, J.

    1987-05-01

    The Canada Centre for Remote Sensing has developed two hierarchical expert systems, the Analyst Advisor and the Map Image Congruency Evaluation (MICE) advisor. These expert systems are built upon our Remote-Sensing Shell (RESHELL) written in Logicware's MPROLOG. A shell is a programming environment that specifically caters to expert system development. Knowledge is represented in the production rules and frames database. Numerical processing takes place using the extensive FORTRAN code of the Landsat Digital Image Analysis System (LDIAS). The LDIAS includes several DEC VAX computers, image displays, specialized processors, and DEC AI VAX stations. The paper describes the architecture of the expert system to compare maps and images (MICE) and the expert system to advise on the extraction of resource information from remotely sensed data, the Analyst Advisor.

  13. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  14. Become A Rock Expert!

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Ms. Andersen

    2010-11-13

    Rocks are the most common material on earth. But how do we identify and classify rocks? Your mission is to become an amateur geologist by exploring the different types of rocks; sorting them by color, hardness, texture, layering, and particle size; and discussing with your classmates what you learned! Rockin Rocks, Ms. Andersen's site about the Big6. Rock Expert Webquest INTRODUCTION The Museum of Natural History is creating a new exhibit on rocks and minerals. They are looking for expert knowledge to share with museum visitors. They need your help, Rock Expert! MISSION You will work as an Amateur Geologist for the Museum of Natural ...

  15. Capturing naturally occurring superior performance in the laboratory: translational research on expert performance.

    PubMed

    Ericsson, K Anders; Williams, A Mark

    2007-09-01

    One of the central challenges to studying highly skilled performance in the laboratory is methodological. It is necessary to develop standardized methods that allow investigators to make experts repeatedly reproduce their superior performance in the laboratory. The recent increase in demand for translational research has raised related issues of how everyday phenomena, such as successful clinical treatments and expert achievement, can be reproduced in the laboratory and how laboratory studies of these phenomena can lead to successful interventions in everyday life. The expert-performance approach was developed as a framework for capturing, analyzing, and accounting for complex acquired skills and adaptations. Performance is initially captured and elicited in the laboratory using tasks representative of core activities in the domain. Process-tracing measures are employed to identify the mechanisms that mediate the reproducibly superior performance. Finally, the factors responsible for the development of the mediating mechanisms are studied by a retrospective analysis of training activities, such as deliberate practice, as well as genetic prerequisites. The principles and mechanisms discovered need then be validated using more traditional longitudinal and experimental designs. PMID:17924797

  16. Making Requirements Elicitation Traceable Orlena Gotel & Anthony Finkelstein

    E-print Network

    Gotel, Olly

    1 Making Requirements Elicitation Traceable Orlena Gotel & Anthony Finkelstein Department: inadequate requirements elicitation; the inability to transcribe elicited requirements in a tangible requirements; and so forth. Although improvements in requirements elicitation and requirements description can

  17. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through…

  18. The Physiological Role of Abscisic Acid in Eliciting Turion Morphogenesis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Cheryl C. Smart; Andrew J. Fleming; Katerina Chaloupková; David E. Hanke

    The exogenous application of hormones has led to their implica- tion in a number of processes within the plant. However, proof of their function in vivo depends on quantitative data demonstrating that the exogenous concentration used to elicit a response leads to tissue hormone levels within the physiological range. Such proof is often lacking in many investigations. We are using

  19. Strategies to Minimize Problems in Global Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Gabriela N. Aranda; Aurora Vizcaíno; Alejandra Cechich; Mario Piattini

    2008-01-01

    Many challenges arise in global software development projects, most of which are related to the lack of face-to-face communication and people's need to feel comfortable with the technology that they use. In this paper we introduce a methodology to detect the problems which may occur during the global requirement elicitation process and propose solutions to reduce them. As an attempt

  20. Computer-Assisted and Customer-Oriented Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. Li; R. J. Pooley

    2005-01-01

    In this short paper, we represent how user interaction could be integrated into an NLP-based system to support stakeholders' participation in terms of improving requirements elicitation. In contrast to commercial CASE tools that support user interface, the proposed iterative and incremental process allows the refinement of preliminary requirements extracted from domain-specific data, according to users' responses. Not only the quality

  1. Cultural Context and its Impact on Requirements Elicitation in Thailand

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Theerasak Thanasankit

    This paper reports one part of an ethnographic study of how software analysts in Thaisoftware houses undertake the requirements engineering process. In this paper the impactof Thai culture on the elicitation of requirements in information systems developed willbe reported. The important role of requirements for software and systems developmentcan be traced to the early study of software engineering. Software developers

  2. Sexual and social stimuli elicit rapid and contrasting genomic responses

    E-print Network

    Murphy, Troy G.

    recently researchers have begun to identify the physiological and neural processes underlying female choiceSexual and social stimuli elicit rapid and contrasting genomic responses Molly E. Cummings1, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA Sensory physiology has been shown to influence female mate choice, yet little

  3. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

  4. Do Nondomain Experts Enlist the Strategies of Domain Experts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drabenstott, Karen M.

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of information-seeking strategies of domain experts and nondomain experts (undergraduates) focuses on a study at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor that investigated whether nondomain experts enlisted the strategies of domain experts when using information gateways on the library Web page; if so, how they learned about them; and…

  5. Antitumor immune reaction elicited by photodynamic therapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korbelik, Mladen

    1999-06-01

    This work examines why photodynamic therapy (PDT) is capable of eliciting a strong immune reaction against treated solid tumors. It is postulated that this phenomenon originates from the basic charter of the insult inflicted by the photodynamic treatment, which is dominated by singlet oxygen-mediated oxidative stress. The early event associated with this initial impact, which is of major relevance for the development of immune response, is the generation of photo-oxidative lesions responsible for the activation of cellular signal transduction pathways and consequent induction of stress proteins. Importantly, these lesions, as well as other types of PDT mediated oxidative injury, have a strong pro-inflammatory character. It is suggested that the antitumor immune response is primed and propagated by the PDT-induced inflammatory process. Of critical importance for the immune recognition of treated tumor is the generation of large amounts of cancer cell debris that occurs rapidly following PDT treatment.

  6. Photo-Elicitation and Visual Semiotics: A Unique Methodology for Studying Inclusion for Children with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stockall, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    The methodology in this paper discusses the use of photographs as an elicitation strategy that can reveal the thinking processes of participants in a qualitatively rich manner. Photo-elicitation techniques combined with a Piercian semiotic perspective offer a unique method for creating a frame of action for later participant analysis. Illustrative…

  7. Effectiveness of Requirements Elicitation Techniques: Empirical Results Derived from a Systematic Review

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Alan M. Davis; Óscar Dieste Tubío; Ann M. Hickey; Natalia Juristo Juzgado; Ana María Moreno

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports a systematic review of empirical studies concerning the effectiveness of elicitation techniques, and the subsequent aggregation of empirical evidence gathered from those studies. The most significant results of the aggregation process are as follows: (1) Interviews, preferentially structured, appear to be one of the most effective elicitation techniques; (2) Many techniques often cited in the literature, like

  8. THE EFFECTS OF CONCEPT MAPS ON REQUIREMENTS ELICITATION AND SYSTEM MODELS DURING INFORMATION SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lee A. Freeman

    There are many problems associated with the development of information systems. Requirements elicitation is the phase of systems development when the systems analyst attempts to understand the user(s) concept for a particular system. Problems encountered or left unsolved from the requirements elicitation phase may worsen during the remainder of the systems development project. At the heart of the process is

  9. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  10. A method for integrating expert knowledge when learning Bayesian networks from data.

    PubMed

    Cano, Andrés; Masegosa, Andrés R; Moral, Serafín

    2011-10-01

    Automatic learning of Bayesian networks from data is a challenging task, particularly when the data are scarce and the problem domain contains a high number of random variables. The introduction of expert knowledge is recognized as an excellent solution for reducing the inherent uncertainty of the models retrieved by automatic learning methods. Previous approaches to this problem based on Bayesian statistics introduce the expert knowledge by the elicitation of informative prior probability distributions of the graph structures. In this paper, we present a new methodology for integrating expert knowledge, based on Monte Carlo simulations and which avoids the costly elicitation of these prior distributions and only requests from the expert information about those direct probabilistic relationships between variables which cannot be reliably discerned with the help of the data. PMID:21659034

  11. The role of constraints in expert memory.

    PubMed

    Gobet, Fernand; Waters, Andrew J

    2003-11-01

    A great deal of research has been devoted to developing process models of expert memory. However, K. J. Vicente and J. H. Wang (1998) proposed (a) that process theories do not provide an adequate account of expert recall in domains in which memory recall is a contrived task and (b) that a product theory, the constraint attunement hypothesis (CAH), has received a significant amount of empirical support. We compared 1 process theory (the template theory; TT; F. Gobet & H. A. Simon, 1996c) with the CAH in chess. Chess players (N=36) differing widely in skill levels were required to recall briefly presented chess positions that were randomized in various ways. Consistent with TT, but inconsistent with the CAH, there was a significant skill effect in a condition in which both the location and distribution of the pieces were randomized. These and other results suggest that process models such as TT can provide a viable account of expert memory in chess. PMID:14622048

  12. Evaluation of high-level waste pretreatment processes with an approximate reasoning model

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Agnew, S.F.

    1999-04-01

    The development of an approximate-reasoning (AR)-based model to analyze pretreatment options for high-level waste is presented. AR methods are used to emulate the processes used by experts in arriving at a judgment. In this paper, the authors first consider two specific issues in applying AR to the analysis of pretreatment options. They examine how to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence to infer the acceptability of a process result using the example of cesium content in low-level waste. They then demonstrate the use of simple physical models to structure expert elicitation and to produce inferences consistent with a problem involving waste particle size effects.

  13. Information Elicitation in Scheduling Problems August 2007

    E-print Network

    Eskenazi, Maxine

    Information Elicitation in Scheduling Problems Ula Bardak August 2007 Language Technologies California Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, and elicitation of additional data that help to reduce uncertainty. In this thesis we introduce a new information

  14. The Expert System for Thermodynamics

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Bhattacharjee, Subrata

    All students struggling with the subject of thermodynamics should visit this site created by Professor Subrata Bhattacharjee at San Diego State University. After reading an overview of The Expert System for Thermodynamics' (TEST) merits, users can take the Feature Tour to discover all the concepts covered at the site such as Exergy Analyses, Open Processes, and Combustions in Closed Chambers. Students and educators can then view the Slide Show to receive a preface to the problem solving atmosphere. Lastly, visitors can work through the many challenging problems that utilize Daemons.

  15. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  16. Uncovering the evidence of non-expert nephrology nursing practice.

    PubMed

    Bonner, Ann

    2006-04-01

    Expertise in nursing has been widely studied although there have been no previous studies into what constitutes expertise in nephrology (renal) nursing. This paper, which is abstracted from a larger study into the acquisition and exercise of nephrology nursing expertise, provides evidence of the characteristics and practices of non-expert nephrology nurses. Using the grounded theory method, the study took place in one renal unit in New South Wales, Australia, and involved six non-expert and 11 expert nurses. Sampling was purposive then theoretical. Simultaneous data collection and analysis using participant observation, review of nursing documentation and semistructured interviews was undertaken. The study revealed a three-stage skills-acquisitive process that was identified as non-expert, experienced non-expert and expert stages. Non-expert nurses showed superficial nephrology nursing knowledge and limited experience; they were acquiring basic nephrology nursing skills and possessed a narrow focus of practice. PMID:16529590

  17. In: Risk and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering M.J. Kallen and S.P. Kuniewski (Eds.) IOS Press, The Netherlands, November 2009, pp. On Some Elicitation Procedures for Distributions with

    E-print Network

    van Dorp, Johan René

    , The Netherlands, November 2009, pp. 1 On Some Elicitation Procedures for Distributions with Bounded Support with an indirect elicitation of bound and tail parameters of generalized trapezoidal uniform distributions that could result when requiring experts to specify a single most likely estimate rather than allowing

  18. Robot environment expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The Robot Environment Expert System uses a hexidecimal tree data structure to model a complex robot environment where not only the robot arm moves, but also the robot itself and other objects may move. The hextree model allows dynamic updating, collision avoidance and path planning over time, to avoid moving objects.

  19. Medical diagnostic expert system based on PDP model

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kazumi Saito; Ryohei Nakano

    1988-01-01

    The applicability of PDP (parallel distributed processing) models to knowledge processing is clarified. The authors evaluate the diagnostic capabilities of a prototype medical diagnostic expert system based on a multilayer network. After having been trained on only 300 patients, the prototype system shows diagnostic capabilities almost equivalent to those of a symbolic expert system. Symbolic knowledge is extracted from what

  20. Modelling diagnosis in physical therapy: a blackboard framework and models of experts and novices

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. A. James

    2007-01-01

    The primary objective of this study was to explore clinical reasoning in physical therapy and to highlight the similarities and differences by modelling the diagnostic phase of clinical reasoning. An experimental design comparing expert and novice physical therapists was utilized. Concurrent verbal protocols detailing the clinical reasoning about standardized case material were elicited. A framework for modelling diagnosis was specified

  1. Information/Knowledge Acquisition Methods for Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Heng-Li

    1995-01-01

    Compares information requirement-elicitation (IRE) methods for decision support systems (DSS) with knowledge acquisition (KA) methods for expert systems (ES) development. The definition and architectures of ES and DSS are compared and the systems' development cycles and IRE/KA methods are discussed. Differences are noted between ES and DSS…

  2. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  3. Fields of Experts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Stefan Roth; Michael J. Black

    2009-01-01

    We develop a framework for learning generic, expressive image priors that capture the statistics of natural scenes and can\\u000a be used for a variety of machine vision tasks. The approach provides a practical method for learning high-order Markov random\\u000a field (MRF) models with potential functions that extend over large pixel neighborhoods. These clique potentials are modeled\\u000a using the Product-of-Experts framework

  4. Preference Elicitation in Proxied Multiattribute Auctions Aditya V. Sunderam

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    elicitation is often costly for participants, for example requiring that participants consider alternativePreference Elicitation in Proxied Multiattribute Auctions Aditya V. Sunderam Division consider the problem of preference elicitation in multiattribute auctions. Multiattribute auctions allow

  5. EXTENDING SAFETY DEVIATION ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO ELICIT FLEXIBLE DEPENDABILITY REQUIREMENTS

    E-print Network

    Kelly, Tim

    EXTENDING SAFETY DEVIATION ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO ELICIT FLEXIBLE DEPENDABILITY REQUIREMENTS G dependability levels for the system. Elicitation of the requirements that define the levels of the dependability how we can extend existing safety techniques to elicit dependability requirements. Well established

  6. ALICE Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, C.; Carena, F.

    2014-06-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period.

  7. Empirical analysis for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Politakis, P.

    1985-01-01

    This book describes an AI system designed to improve the development of expert systems for classification-type problems. A system referred to as ''seek'' that gives interactive advice about rule refinement in the design of an expert system is presented. The system develops techniques to integrate dual sources of expert knowledge efficiently. The techniques are used to develop a diagnostic consultant for rheumatology.

  8. Expert systems in industrial engineering

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. R. T. KUMARA; SANJAY JOSHI; R. L. KASHYAP; C. L. MOODIE; T. C. CHANG

    1986-01-01

    An expert system can be denned as ‘a tool which has the capability to understand problem specific knowledge and use the domain knowledge intelligently to suggest alternate paths of action’. This paper presents a structured framework for the development of an expert system. The five major aspects of expert system development are: Problem definition; knowledge acquisition, representation and coordination; inference

  9. Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

    1990-01-01

    We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

  10. Unstructured Direct Elicitation of Decision Rules

    E-print Network

    Ding, Min

    We investigate the feasibility of unstructured direct-elicitation (UDE) of decision rules consumers use to form consideration sets. With incentives to think hard and answer truthfully, tested formats ask respondents to ...

  11. Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

    1991-01-01

    Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

  12. Basic emotions elicited by odors and pictures.

    PubMed

    Croy, Ilona; Olgun, Selda; Joraschky, Peter

    2011-12-01

    The sense of olfaction is often reported to have a special relationship with emotional processing. Memories triggered by olfactory cues often have a very emotional load. On the other hand, basic negative or positive emotional states should be sufficient to cover the most significant functions of the olfactory system including ingestion, hazard avoidance, and social communication. Thus, we investigated whether different basic emotions can be evoked in healthy people through the sense of olfaction. We asked 119 participants which odor evokes one of the six basic emotions (happiness, disgust, anger, anxiety, sadness, and surprise); another 97 participants were asked about pictures evoking those emotions. The results showed that almost every participant could name an olfactory elicitor for happiness or disgust. Olfactory elicitors of anxiety were reported less frequently, but they were still reported by three-quarters of the participants. However, for sadness and anger only about half of the participants reported an olfactory elicitor, whereas significantly more named a visual cue. Olfactory emotion elicitors were mainly related to the classes of culture, plants, and food, and visual emotion elicitors were largely related to humans. This data supports the hypothesis that in the vast majority of people, few differentiated emotions can be elicited through the olfactory channel. These emotions are happiness, disgust, and anxiety. PMID:21787073

  13. APPLICATIONS OF EXPERT SYSTEMS IN ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Expert systems are a promising computer-based approach to helping environmental engineers solve difficult problems. A number of such systems have been developed to date in the areas of hazard assessment, modeling support, process failure diagnosis, and regulatory support. The US ...

  14. Applications of artificial intelligence and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    This book contains over 30 papers. Some of the titles are: operating systems for CD/ROM; the impact of optical storage technology on education; the future of expert systems in the financial services industry; the future of compact disk/DC-1 explosive ordinance disposal rendered safe information system; and will artificial intelligence improve computer based training (CBT) development process.

  15. Building a prototype expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kalmus, D.; Hutchinson, M.; Hall, D.

    1988-07-01

    In the past few years expert system technology has been gaining increasing respect within the world of computer science as it offers practical solutions to problems which have previously defied computerization. This paper is the culmination of a years investigation into how LBL can practically make use of this technology to solve some of the problems being faced by its scientists. To establish this and gain a greater understanding of expert system technology we attempted to build a prototype expert system using a commercially available expert system shell. The application we chose was to troubleshoot the hardware of the TPC particle detector (used by high energy physicists at LBL) using Neuron Data's expert system shell, Nexpert. This paper gives some brief overviews of the theoretical and practical work done by other people in fields relevant to this project. It includes: expert systems, their development, diagnostic expert systems, and examples of expert systems built to troubleshoot electronic devices. We describe how we selected our prototype expert system and then how we went about designing and building it. For this we have detailed the knowledge necessary to start troubleshooting the TPC and the methods used to represent that knowledge within the expert system shell. Finally we discuss the understanding of expert system technology which we have gained during this project and why we believe that this technology has a place in the future of problem solving at LBL. 31 refs.

  16. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    L. J. Matthews; L. K. Burggraf (ISU); W. J. Reece (INEEL)

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling.

  17. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  18. Expert system for scheduling simulation lab sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lund, Chet

    1990-01-01

    Implementation and results of an expert system used for scheduling session requests for the Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) laboratory at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) are discussed. Weekly session requests are received from astronaut crew trainers, procedures developers, engineering assessment personnel, software developers, and various others who wish to access the computers, scene generators, and other simulation equipment available to them in the SES lab. The expert system under discussion is comprised of a data acquisition portion - two Pascal programs run on a personal computer - and a CLIPS program installed on a minicomputer. A brief introduction to the SES lab and its scheduling background is given. A general overview of the system is provided, followed by a detailed description of the constraint-reduction process and of the scheduler itself. Results from a ten-week trial period using this approach are discussed. Finally, a summary of the expert system's strengths and shortcomings are provided.

  19. An Expert Assistant for Computer Aided Parallelization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jost, Gabriele; Chun, Robert; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit

    2004-01-01

    The prototype implementation of an expert system was developed to assist the user in the computer aided parallelization process. The system interfaces to tools for automatic parallelization and performance analysis. By fusing static program structure information and dynamic performance analysis data the expert system can help the user to filter, correlate, and interpret the data gathered by the existing tools. Sections of the code that show poor performance and require further attention are rapidly identified and suggestions for improvements are presented to the user. In this paper we describe the components of the expert system and discuss its interface to the existing tools. We present a case study to demonstrate the successful use in full scale scientific applications.

  20. GRAPE: An Expert Review Assignment Component for Scientific Conference

    E-print Network

    Di Mauro, Nicola

    GRAPE: An Expert Review Assignment Component for Scientific Conference Management Systems Nicola Di {ndm, basile, ferilli}@di.uniba.it Abstract. This paper describes GRAPE, an expert component for a sci the possibility to use these preferences. This paper describes GRAPE (Global Review Assignment Processing Engine

  1. Development of an Expert System for Aiding Migraine Diagnosis

    E-print Network

    Kopec, Danny

    355 Development of an Expert System for Aiding Migraine Diagnosis Danny Kopec, Gennady Shagas, Jay system to aid physicians in diagnosing migraines and their sub-types. Design: Developmental process and rules that are necessary for building an expert system for aiding migraine diagnosis and distinguishing

  2. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

  3. Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Robert T. Clemen; Robert L. Winkler

    1999-01-01

    Abstract This paper concerns the combination of experts’ probability distributions in risk analysis, discussing a variety of combination methods,and attempting to highlight the important conceptual and practical issues to be considered in designing a combination process in practice. The role of experts is important because their judgments can provide valuable information, particularly in view of the limited availability of “hard

  4. A restoration aid expert system for distribution substations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Heung-Jae Lee; Young-Moon Park

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a practical restoration aid expert system for 154kV distribution substations. The proposed expert system has a topology based simple structure and it utilizes basic rules suggested by Korea electric power company including heuristic rules, topology identification rules and searching rules to generate switching sequence for feasible restoration process. In this paper, general system structure as well as

  5. OPTIM, a primary expert system for magnetic field shaping

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shouzhen Han; Naifeng Mao; Gongpan Li

    1992-01-01

    The basic principle, structure, and function of a primary expert system for magnetic field shaping are introduced. The intelligent inference network, inversion calculation method, optimal correcting process, and basic body of the knowledge base are expounded completely. An example of magnetic field shaping design calculation finished by this expert system is given

  6. RELIABILITY OF TWO REMUS-100 AUVS BASED ON FAULT LOG ANALYSIS AND ELICITED EXPERT JUDGMENT

    E-print Network

    Griffiths, Gwyn

    is especially important for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) that have made the transition to operational aggregation as in this paper. 1. Introduction Reliability is especially important for autonomous underwater, operators and owners do need to know the risk of loss or severe damage to their vehicles. In this paper, we

  7. Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nigel W. Arnell; Emma L. Tompkins; W. Neil Adger

    2005-01-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to

  8. Expert elicitation and Bayesian analysis of construction contract risks: an investigation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Francis K. Adams

    2006-01-01

    Formal risk analysis techniques applied in managing construction project risks tend to focus on risks that lend themselves to ‘objective’ methods of economic analysis. Although subjective probabilities and Bayesian methods are applied successfully in other industries to manage ‘subjective’ risks similar to those encountered in construction contracts, very little is reported on the application of such methods for analysing risks

  9. Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Anne Barbara Knol; Jeroen J de Hartog; Hanna Boogaard; Pauline Slottje; Jeroen P van der Sluijs; Erik Lebret; Flemming R. Cassee; J Arjan Wardekker; Jon G Ayres; Paul J. Borm; Bert Brunekreef; Kenneth Donaldson; Francesco Forastiere; Stephen T Holgate; Wolfgang G. Kreyling; Benoit Nemery; Juha Pekkanen; Vicky Stone; H-Erich Wichmann; Gerard Hoek

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Exposure to fine ambient particulate matter (PM) has consistently been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) and health effects is less firmly established. If UFP cause health effects independently from coarser fractions, this could affect health impact assessment of air pollution, which would possibly lead to alternative policy options to be

  10. A framework for nuclear facility safeguard evaluation using probabilistic methods and expert elicitation

    E-print Network

    Iamsumang, Chonlagarn

    2010-01-01

    With the advancement of the next generation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, concerns of the effectiveness of nuclear facility safeguards have been increasing due to the inclusion of highly enriched material and reprocessing ...

  11. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C., LLNL

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  12. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

    1998-03-30

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  13. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael C. Runge; Sarah J. Converse; James E. Lyons

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context,

  14. EXPERT SYSTEM USING HYBRIDISM AMONG SYMBOLIC AND CONNECTIONIST PARADIGMS, FUZZY LOGIC AND, GENETIC ALGORITHMS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. M. Brasil; F. M. de Azevedo; J. M. Barreto

    The Knowledge Acquisition (KA) process consists on extracting and representing knowledge of a domain expert. In this work, one of the goals is to minimize the intrinsic difficulties of the KA process. We have obtained all possible rules from the domain expert in a short time and also a set of examples. Other goal, we are proposed a Hybrid Expert

  15. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling and dynamic replanning.

  16. Expert knowledge without the expert: integrated analysis of gene expression and literature to derive active functional contexts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Robert Küffner; Katrin Fundel; Ralf Zimmer

    2005-01-01

    Motivation: The interpretation of expression data without appropri- ate expert knowledge is difficult and usually limited to exploratory data analysis, such as clustering and detecting differentially regulated genes. However, comparing experimental results against manually compiled knowledge resources might limit or bias the perspective on the data. Thus, manual analysis by experts is required to obtain confident predictions about involved processes.

  17. Capturing the Naturally Occurring Superior Performance of Experts in the LaboratoryToward a Science of Expert and Exceptional Performance

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. Anders Ericsson; Paul Ward

    2007-01-01

    Expertise researchers have traditionally shied away from studying the highest levels of achievement in favor of studying basic cognitive processes, such as memory and categorization. In this article, we present a different approach that is focused on capturing superior (expert) performance on representative tasks that reveal the essential characteristics of expertise in a given domain. In domains where expert performance

  18. Capturing the Naturally OccurringSuperiorPerformance of Experts in the Laboratory Toward a Science of Expert and Exceptional Performance

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. Anders Ericsson; Paul Ward

    Expertise researchers have traditionally shied away from studying the highest levels of achievement in favor of studying basic cognitive processes, such as memory and categorization. In this article, we present a different approach that is focused on capturing superior (expert) performance on representative tasks that reveal theessentialcharacteristicsofexpertiseinagivendomain. In domains where expert performance is measurable, acquisition is gradual and the highest

  19. Experts and Decision Making: First Steps Towards a Unifying Theory of Decision Making in Novices, Intermediates and Experts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Britta Herbig; Andreas Glöckner

    2009-01-01

    Expertise research shows quite ambiguous results on the abilities of experts in judgment and decision making (JDM) classic models cannot account for. This problem becomes even more accentuated if different levels of expertise are considered. We argue that parallel constraint satisfaction models (PCS) might be a useful base to understand the processes underlying expert JDM and the hitherto existing, differentiated

  20. Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

    1988-01-01

    Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

  1. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koons, H. C.; Gorney, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    A microcomputer-based expert system is being developed at the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory to assist in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to address anomalies caused by surface charging, bulk charging, single event effects and total radiation dose. These effects depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local environment (which is highly variable), the satellite exposure time and the hardness of the circuits and components of the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instruments Personal Consultant Plus expert system shell. The completed expert system knowledge base will include 150 to 200 rules, as well as a spacecraft attributes database, an historical spacecraft anomalies database, and a space environment database which is updated in near real-time. Currently, the expert system is undergoing development and testing within the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory.

  2. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  3. Brain Activity Elicited by Positive and Negative Feedback in Preschool-Aged Children

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Xiaoqin Mai; Twila Tardif; Stacey N. Doan; Chao Liu; William J. Gehring; Yue-Jia Luo; Sam Gilbert

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the processing of positive vs. negative feedback in children aged 4–5 years, we devised a prize-guessing game that is analogous to gambling tasks used to measure feedback-related brain responses in adult studies. Unlike adult studies, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) elicited by positive feedback was as large as that elicited by negative feedback, suggesting that the neural system underlying

  4. A Method for Collaborative Requirements Elicitation and Decision-Supported Requirements Analysis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael Geisser; Tobias Hildenbrand

    2006-01-01

    As software systems become more and more complex with a multitude of stakeholders involved in development activities, novel\\u000a ways of conducting the process of requirements elicitation and analysis are to be found. Therefore, this paper introduces\\u000a a method for collaborative requirements elicitation and decision-supported requirements analysis. Accompanying this method,\\u000a appropriate tools and techniques, both existing and custom-made, are referred to.

  5. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6?days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the right way. All citizens of the EU may benefit using the best practice. PMID:24834138

  6. Experiences of otoneurological expert system for vertigo.

    PubMed

    Kentala, E L; Laurikkala, J P; Viikki, K; Auramo, Y; Juhola, M; Pyykkö, I V

    2001-01-01

    We have developed an OtoNeurological Expert system (ONE) to aid the diagnostics of vertigo, to assist teaching and to implement the database for research. The database contains detailed information on the patient history, signs and test results necessary for the diagnostic work with vertiginous patients. The pattern recognition method was used in the reasoning process. Questions regarding symptoms, signs and test results are weighted and scored for each disease, and the most likely disease is recognized from the defined disease profiles. Uncertainties in reasoning, caused by missing information, were solved with a method resembling fuzzy logic. We have also applied adaptive computer applications, such as genetic algorithms and decision trees, in the reasoning process. In the validation the expert system ONE proved to be a sound decision maker, by solving 65% of the cases correctly, while the physicians' mean was 69%. To improve the expert system ONE further, a follow-up should be implemented for the patients, to ease the diagnostic work of some difficult diseases. The six diseases were detected with high accuracy also with adaptive learning methods and discriminant analysis. An expert system is a practical tool in otoneurology. We aim to construct a hybrid program for the reasoning, where the best reasoning method for each disease is used. PMID:11318496

  7. An Expert Map of Gambling Risk Perception.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2014-07-25

    The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns. PMID:25060132

  8. Elicitation of macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of channel catfish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, J.A.; Klesius, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Four chemicals were evaluated for elicitation of macrophages in peritoneal cavities of 250-300g healthy channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Cellular exudates were collected at 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 20 d following intraperitoneal injections with squalene, Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA), goat serum, thioglycollate, or as a control, phosphate-buffered saline. Injection with either squalene or FIA induced significantly greater (P ??? 0.0001) macrophage recruitment than the other chemicals. The effectiveness of squalene and FIA was compared further by macrophage collection daily for 7 d. Squalene and FIA elicited similarly high macrophage responses (P ??? 0.0450), the highest being 3.43 x 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 2.4 x l06) at 99% purity at day 2 and 2.1 X 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 0.7 x 106) at day 14 at 80% purity, respectively. In both experiments, the time after injection was not statistically significant, nor was there an interaction between time and chemicals. The occurrence of cells other than macrophages decreased with time to yield macrophage recoveries of 47-99% for squalene and 30-80% for FIA. Two subsets of macrophages were observed by means of flow cytometry. As demonstrated by chemiluminescence, the squalene-elicited cells produced high-energy oxygen compounds important to the phagocytic process.

  9. Conditioned responses elicited by experimentally produced cues for smoking.

    PubMed

    Mucha, R F; Pauli, P; Angrilli, A

    1998-03-01

    Several theories of drug-craving postulate that a signal for drug elicits conditioned responses. However, depending on the theory, a drug cue is said to elicit drug similar, drug compensatory, positive motivational, and negative motivational effects. Since animal data alone cannot tease apart the relative importance of different cue-related processes in the addict, we developed and examined a model of drug cues in the human based on a two-sound, differential conditioning procedure using smoking as the reinforcer. After multiple pairings of a sound with smoking, there was a preference for the smoking cue on a conditioned preference test. The acute effects of smoking (increased heart rate, respiration rate, skin conductance level, skin conductance fluctuations, EEG beta power and trapezius EMG, decreased alpha power) were not affected by the smoking cue, although subjects drew more on their cigarette in the presence of the smoking cue than in the presence of a control cue. Moreover, the cue did not change baseline behaviour except for a possible increase in EEG beta power and an increase in trapezius EMG at about the time when smoking should have occurred. The findings confirm the value of experimental models of drug cues in the human for comparing different cue phenomena in the dependent individual. They indicate that an acquired signal for drug in the human may elicit incentive motivational effects and associated preparatory motor responses in addition to possible conditioned tolerance. PMID:9673789

  10. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  11. System experts and decision making experts in transdisciplinary projects

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Harald A. Mieg

    2006-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions is based on findings and considerations

  12. Bloggers as Experts Feed Distillation using Expert Retrieval Models

    E-print Network

    de Rijke, Maarten

    Bloggers as Experts Feed Distillation using Expert Retrieval Models Krisztian Balog kbalog Kruislaan 403, 1098 SJ Amsterdam ABSTRACT We address the task of (blog) feed distillation: to find blogs- ness as feed distillation strategies. The two models capture the idea that a human will often search

  13. Crowd-Powered Experts Helping Surgeons Interpret Breast Cancer Images

    E-print Network

    job openings. After this pre-processing, trained HR experts selected the most suitable candidates from. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific

  14. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub-task commands. This mechanism gives the operator the ability to build a task-hierarchy tree of increasingly powerful commands. ESG also provides automatic regeneration of scripts based on system knowledge of telerobotic environment updates. The commands generated by ESG may be displayed at the terminal screen and/or stored. ESG is implemented as a rule-based expert system written in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System). The system consists of a knowledge-base of task heuristics, a static (unchanged during execution) database which describes the physical features of objects, and a dynamic (may change as a result of task achievement) database which maintains changes in the environment. Capabilites are provided for adding new environmental objects and for modifying existing objects and configuration data. Options are available for interactively viewing both the static and dynamic attribute values of database items. Execution of the ESG may be suspended to allow access to system-level functions. ESG was implemented on a VAX 11/780 with the VMS 4.7 operating system using a VT100 compatible terminal. Its source code is 47% CLIPS and 53% C-language, with a memory requirement of approximately 205 KB. The program was developed in 1988.

  15. Ask the Experts - February 2007

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2007-02-01

    In this month's Ask the Experts column, the Experts address the following two questions: Does the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle serve as the basis for Chaos theory? and Why doesn't the United States use the metric system, also known as the System International, as other countries do? It was supposed to be in use by the 1980s. What happened?

  16. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  17. Affective Speech Elicited With a Computer Game

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tom Johnstone; Carien M. van Reekum; Kathryn Hird; Kim Kirsner; Klaus R. Scherer

    2005-01-01

    To determine the degree to which emotional changes in speech reflect factors other than arousal, such as valence, the authors used a computer game to induce natural emotional speech. Voice samples were elicited following game events that were either conducive or obstructive to the goal of winning and were accompanied by either pleasant or unpleasant sounds. Acoustic analysis of the

  18. Artificial Pets: Simple Behaviors Elicit Complex Attachments

    E-print Network

    Artificial Pets: Simple Behaviors Elicit Complex Attachments Judith Donath To appear in The Encyclopedia of Animal Behavior, edited by Marc Bekoff. Greenwood Press. Artificial pets are robotic toys with pet-like behavior. Unlike traditional robots, which are made to be intelligent tools that serve

  19. Assessing Coral Reef Condition: Eliciting Community Meanings

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Elizabeth A. Dinsdale; D. Mark Fenton

    2006-01-01

    Photographs depicting a gradient of coral reef condition associated with anchor damage were assessed and described by 76 research participants. The participants were divided into two groups: those with and those without occupational experience of coral reefs. Three important meanings ascribed to coral reefs were elicited. The most important meaning was “evaluation,” whether the scenes were perceived positively or negatively.

  20. Affective multimodal mirror: sensing and eliciting laughter

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Willem A. Melder; David A. van Leeuwen; Khiet P. Truong; Mark A. Neerincx; Marten Den Uyl; Lodewijk R. Loos

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a multimodal affective mirror that senses and elicits laughter. Currently, the mirror contains a vocal and a facial affect-sensing module, a component that fuses the output of these two modules to achieve a user-state assessment, a user state transition model, and a component to present audiovisual affective feedback that should keep or bring the user

  1. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koons, Harry C.; Groney, David J.

    1994-02-01

    An expert system has been developed by The Aerospace Corporation, Space and Environment Technology Center for use in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to determine the probable cause of an anomaly from the following candidates: surface charging, bulk charging, single-event effects, total radiation dose, and space-plasma effects. Such anomalies depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local plasma and radiation environment (which is highly variable), the satellite-exposure time, and the hardness of the circuits and components in the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instrument's Personal Consultant Plus expert-system shell. The expert system's knowledgebase includes about 200 rules, as well as a number of databases that contain information on spacecraft and their orbits, previous spacecraft anomalies, and the environment.

  2. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  3. The Expert System Designed to Improve Customer Satisfaction

    E-print Network

    Devi, P Isakki alias

    2011-01-01

    Customer Relationship Management becomes a leading business strategy in highly competitive business environment. It aims to enhance the performance of the businesses by improving the customer satisfaction and loyalty. The objective of this paper is to improve customer satisfaction on product's colors and design with the help of the expert system developed by using Artificial Neural Networks. The expert system's role is to capture the knowledge of the experts and the data from the customer requirements, and then, process the collected data and form the appropriate rules for choosing product's colors and design. In order to identify the hidden pattern of the customer's needs, the Artificial Neural Networks technique has been applied to classify the colors and design based upon a list of selected information. Moreover, the expert system has the capability to make decisions in ranking the scores of the colors and design presented in the selection. In addition, the expert system has been validated with a different...

  4. Professionalism in court: The neurologist as expert witness.

    PubMed

    Cheshire, William P; Hutchins, John C

    2014-08-01

    Serving as an expert witness can be a rewarding experience. It affords the neurologist the opportunity to contribute expertise to the legal system's pursuit of justice and benefits the public interest. However, serving as an expert witness without understanding and incorporating relevant professional and specialty guidelines concerning expert witness testimony can place the neurologist at risk. The American Academy of Neurology has established standards governing expert witness testimony and a disciplinary process to respond to complaints of violation of its standards. Increased understanding of and adherence to these qualifications and guidelines, coupled with an awareness of how the legal system differs from clinical practice, will better equip neurologists serving as expert witnesses and minimize their professional risk when doing so. PMID:25279255

  5. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules in decision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  6. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules indecision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  7. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Rutherford, Edward S; Zhang, Hongyan; Mason, Doran M; Lodge, David M

    2015-02-01

    Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance-based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision-support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available. PMID:25132396

  8. Artificial intelligence and the law: will expert systems replace expert lawyers

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, G.S.

    1983-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The commercial availability of expert systems utilizing specially developed knowledge bases raises significant questions about their potential utility in the practice of law. These systems, built with the aid of recent developments in artificial intelligence research, may only prove useful in certain areas of legal practice. Counselling and interviewing are areas where expert systems are likely to effect marked changes in the practice of law. In contract, computerized legal research using a knowledge-based system is more difficult to envision. This is due to complexities presented by the multiplicity of sources of the law, and by conflicting opinions and interpretations in the common law. In the coming decade, use of expert systems in science and medicine will grow rapidly, and attempts will continue to be made to automate the legal reasoning process. As past research efforts have demonstrated, this will not be an easy task.

  9. CASWW Central Asia Experts Directory

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Provided by the Harvard Forum for Central Asian Studies, this site will prove useful to graduate students and scholars of Central Asia. The site was created to facilitate access for policy-makers, the press, and others to scholars with the appropriate expertise in Central Asian Studies. The Directory features those who have indicated their willingness to be contacted for expert consultations, and their listing will include a brief description of their qualifications. It organizes experts by name, topic, location, and under several headings: Politics and International Relations, Economy, Social Issues, and Cultural and Historical Background. The site is still soliciting experts for inclusion, and a link to the questionnaire is provided.

  10. Essays on the principal-expert problem

    E-print Network

    Zermeño Vallés, Luis G. (Luis Guillermo)

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation studies the problem of motivating an expert to help a principal take a decision. The first chapter examines a principal-expert model in which the only source of friction is that the expert must be induced ...

  11. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  12. Partial belief and expert testimony

    E-print Network

    Briggs, Rachael (Rachael Amy)

    2009-01-01

    My dissertation investigates two questions from within a partial belief framework: First, when and how should deference to experts or other information sources be qualified? Second, how closely is epistemology related to ...

  13. Expert Secondary Inclusive Classroom Management

    E-print Network

    Montague, Marcia

    2011-02-22

    disabilities, including autism, intellectual disability, and traumatic brain injury were of interest in this study. Further, this study was designed to determine how the teachers learned to expertly manage their inclusive classrooms. Eight teachers met criteria...

  14. Unmasking of latent synaptic connections in the cortex of the rat, elicited by facial nerve transection

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tamás Farkas; József Toldi

    2001-01-01

    Peripheral nerve injury elicits plastic changes in the cortex, resulting in reorganization of the somatotopic representation maps. These processes begin within minutes after nerve injury, and last for weeks. Although the mechanisms leading to these plastic changes are not known in a detail, a number of results suggest that the key element in the starting of these processes is a

  15. Using Task Analysis to Improve the Requirements Elicitation in Health Information System

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Leonor Teixeira; Carlos Ferreira; Beatriz Sousa Santos

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes the application of task analysis within the design process of a Web-based information system for managing clinical information in hemophilia care, in order to improve the requirements elicitation and, consequently, to validate the domain model obtained in a previous phase of the design process (system analysis). The use of task analysis in this case proved to be

  16. Enhancing Stakeholder Profiles to Improve Recommendations in Online Requirements Elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Carlos Castro-Herrera; Jane Cleland-Huang; Bamshad Mobasher

    2009-01-01

    Requirements elicitation has long been recognized as a crucial activity in any software development project. Unfortunately, the traditional elicitation practices do not scale well when applied to larger projects, where knowledge is distributed across numerous geographically dispersed stakeholders. As a result, new distributed requirements elicitation tools have started to surface, such as online forums and wiki pages. In our previous

  17. Preference Elicitation and Generalized Additive Utility Darius Braziunas

    E-print Network

    Toronto, University of

    users. Thus it requires some representation of user preferences as well as a means of elicitingPreference Elicitation and Generalized Additive Utility Darius Braziunas Department of Computer of elicitation, they are often overly re- strictive. The more flexible generalized additive inde- pendence (GAI

  18. Eliciting Software Safety Requirements in Complex Catherine Menon, Tim Kelly

    E-print Network

    Kelly, Tim

    Eliciting Software Safety Requirements in Complex Systems Catherine Menon, Tim Kelly Department a discussion of the issues involved with eliciting and managing safety requirements in complex systems. We show organizational interfaces. As a result, the allocation of responsibility for eliciting safety requirements

  19. Effectiveness of preference elicitation in combinatorial Benot Hudson Tuomas Sandholm

    E-print Network

    's preferences can require bidding on all bundles. Selective incremental preference elicitation by the auctioneerEffectiveness of preference elicitation in combinatorial auctions Benoâ??�t Hudson Tuomas Sandholm, experimentally and theoretically, that automated elicitation provides a drastic benefit. In all

  20. Auction Design with Costly Preference Elicitation David C. Parkes

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    on the available information, and to elicit additional preference information as required. We derive informationAuction Design with Costly Preference Elicitation David C. Parkes Division of Engineering@eecs.harvard.edu Abstract. We consider auction design in a setting with costly preference elicitation. Well designed

  1. Auction Design with Costly Preference Elicitation David C. Parkes

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    of an auction, the valu- ation problem often requires human intervention­ in the form of preference elicitation strategies in sealed-bid auctions require complete and exact preference elicitation. As an example, considerAuction Design with Costly Preference Elicitation David C. Parkes Division of Engineering

  2. Discourse Analysis of Requirements and Knowledge Elicitation Interviews

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Rosío Alvarez

    2002-01-01

    This paper sets forth a framework for examining the discourse of interviews that take place during requirements analysis and knowledge elicitation. Research has shown that requirements and knowledge elicitation techniques are very similar if not identical in some instances. Moreover, eliciting user requirements is a critical and difficult activity of both information and knowledge based systems development. In this paper,

  3. The Expert Project Management System (EPMS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty

    1986-01-01

    Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.

  4. Listening to the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Voakes, Les

    2003-01-01

    Describes a partnership of youth and adults in Ontario, Canada in the generative process of participatory evaluation as youth and adults jointly produced a conference as a participatory evaluation and worked as democratic equals toward a common goal. (SLD)

  5. Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

    2014-10-01

    Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

  6. An expert system based intelligent control scheme for space bioreactors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    San, Ka-Yiu

    1988-01-01

    An expert system based intelligent control scheme is being developed for the effective control and full automation of bioreactor systems in space. The scheme developed will have the capability to capture information from various resources including heuristic information from process researchers and operators. The knowledge base of the expert system should contain enough expertise to perform on-line system identification and thus be able to adapt the controllers accordingly with minimal human supervision.

  7. VITEX: An expert system to evaluate vitrification of nuclear waste

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Arakali

    1991-01-01

    An expert system to evaluate the important process and product parameters for the vitrification of high-level nuclear waste has been developed. This system could be used to project important glass and processing data for the operating staff. The knowledge base incorporated in the system is primarily from the research, development, and testing of the vitrification process at the West Valley

  8. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. PMID:25725910

  9. The Appropriateness of Renal Angioplasty. The ANPARIA Software: A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Gerbaud, Laurent; Manhes, Geraud; Debourse, Juliette; Gouby, Gerald, E-mail: ggouby@chu-clermontferrand.fr; Glanddier, Phyllis-Yvonne [CHU de Clermont-Ferrand, Hotel-Dieu, Service d'epidemiologie, economie de la sante et prevention (France); Vader, John-Paul [Institut Universitaire de Medecine Sociale et Preventive, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Universite de Lausanne (Switzerland); Boyer, Louis, E-mail: lboyer@chu-clermontferrand.fr; Deteix, Patrice [Universite d'Auvergne, Faculte de Medecine (France)

    2008-11-15

    Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size >7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis ({>=}70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anpariahttp://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anparia/). In numerous clinical situations uncertainty remains as to whether PTRA prevents deterioration of renal function.

  10. Lightning protection decision system (an expert system)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    P. Sivakumar; H. B. Aravind; T. L. Muralidharan; G. V. Suryakumar

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are fast becoming the leading branch of artificial intelligence technology. An expert system tool, ‘The Deciding Factor’, was investigated for use in building a Lightning protection decision system, an expert system for structures. The system described in this paper is a diagnostic expert system, developed for IBM PCs. There are a number of factors affecting the risk of

  11. EDNA: Expert fault digraph analysis using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dixit, Vishweshwar V.

    1990-01-01

    Traditionally fault models are represented by trees. Recently, digraph models have been proposed (Sack). Digraph models closely imitate the real system dependencies and hence are easy to develop, validate and maintain. However, they can also contain directed cycles and analysis algorithms are hard to find. Available algorithms tend to be complicated and slow. On the other hand, the tree analysis (VGRH, Tayl) is well understood and rooted in vast research effort and analytical techniques. The tree analysis algorithms are sophisticated and orders of magnitude faster. Transformation of a digraph (cyclic) into trees (CLP, LP) is a viable approach to blend the advantages of the representations. Neither the digraphs nor the trees provide the ability to handle heuristic knowledge. An expert system, to capture the engineering knowledge, is essential. We propose an approach here, namely, expert network analysis. We combine the digraph representation and tree algorithms. The models are augmented by probabilistic and heuristic knowledge. CLIPS, an expert system shell from NASA-JSC will be used to develop a tool. The technique provides the ability to handle probabilities and heuristic knowledge. Mixed analysis, some nodes with probabilities, is possible. The tool provides graphics interface for input, query, and update. With the combined approach it is expected to be a valuable tool in the design process as well in the capture of final design knowledge.

  12. Concert hall acoustics assessment with individually elicited attributes.

    PubMed

    Lokki, Tapio; Patynen, Jukka; Kuusinen, Antti; Vertanen, Heikki; Tervo, Sakari

    2011-08-01

    Concert hall acoustics was evaluated with a descriptive sensory analysis method by employing an individual vocabulary development technique. The goal was to obtain sensory profiles of three concert halls by eliciting perceptual attributes for evaluation and comparison of the halls. The stimuli were gathered by playing back anechoic symphony music from 34 loudspeakers on stage in each concert hall and recording the sound field with a microphone array. Four musical programs were processed for multichannel 3D sound reproduction in the actual listening test. Twenty screened assessors developed their individual set of attributes and performed a comparative evaluation of nine seats, three in each hall. The results contain the distinctive groups of elicited attributes and show good agreement within assessors, even though they applied individual attributes when rating the samples. It was also found that loudness and distance gave the strongest perceptual direction to the principal component basis. In addition, the study revealed that the perception of reverberance is related to the size of the space or to the enveloping reverberance, depending on the assessor. PMID:21877799

  13. ATS displays: A reasoning visualization tool for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1990-01-01

    Reasoning visualization is a useful tool that can help users better understand the inherently non-sequential logic of an expert system. While this is desirable in most all expert system applications, it is especially so for such critical systems as those destined for space-based operations. A hierarchical view of the expert system reasoning process and some characteristics of these various levels is presented. Also presented are Abstract Time Slice (ATS) displays, a tool to visualize the plethora of interrelated information available at the host inferencing language level of reasoning. The usefulness of this tool is illustrated with some examples from a prototype potable water expert system for possible use aboard Space Station Freedom.

  14. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  15. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  16. The making of an expert.

    PubMed

    Ericsson, K Anders; Prietula, Michael J; Cokely, Edward T

    2007-01-01

    Popular lore tells us that genius is born, not made. Scientific research, on the other hand, reveals that true expertise is mainly the product of years of intense practice and dedicated coaching. Ordinary practice is not enough: To reach elite levels of performance, you need to constantly push yourself beyond your abilities and comfort level. Such discipline is the key to becoming an expert in all domains, including management and leadership. Those are the conclusions reached by Ericsson, a professor of psychology at Florida State University; Prietula, a professor at the Goizueta Business School; and Cokely, a research fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, who together studied data on the behavior of experts, gathered by more than 100 scientists. What consistently distinguished elite surgeons, chess players, writers, athletes, pianists, and other experts was the habit of engaging in "deliberate" practice--a sustained focus on tasks that they couldn't do before. Experts continually analyzed what they did wrong, adjusted their techniques, and worked arduously to correct their errors. Even such traits as charisma can be developed using this technique. Working with a drama school, the authors created a set of acting exercises for managers that remarkably enhanced executives' powers of charm and persuasion. Through deliberate practice, leaders can improve their ability to win over their employees, their peers, or their board of directors. The journey to elite performance is not for the impatient or the faint of heart. It takes at least a decade and requires the guidance of an expert teacher to provide tough, often painful feedback. It also demands would-be experts to develop their "inner coach" and eventually drive their own progress. PMID:17642130

  17. Ian Sommerville 2000 Software Engineering, 6th edition. Chapter 6 Slide 1 Requirements Engineering Processes

    E-print Network

    Scharff, Christelle

    engineering activities l To introduce techniques for requirements elicitation and analysis l To describe covered l Feasibility studies l Requirements elicitation and analysis l Requirements validation l activities common to all processes · Requirements elicitation · Requirements analysis · Requirements

  18. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    PubMed

    Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-01

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies. PMID:23002786

  19. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  20. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. PMID:20702026

  1. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  2. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States). Business Administration & Economics Div.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  3. Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

    PubMed

    Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

    2007-03-01

    Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge. PMID:17365646

  4. Ask the Experts--January 2007

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2007-01-01

    In this month's Ask the Experts column, the following questions are addressed: I've heard that the two sides of my brain are specialized for different tasks (language vs. reasoning, etc.). If I listen to a science lecture on my iPod using only one earpiece, will the way I process the information depend on which ear I use to listen to the lecture? and Why does the sound made by scratching a chalkboard seem to be irritating to so many people, and why to some and not others? Nature or nurture or a bit of both?

  5. Eliciting symptoms interpreted as normal by patients with early-stage lung cancer: could GP elicitation of normalised symptoms reduce delay in diagnosis? Cross-sectional interview study

    PubMed Central

    Brindle, Lucy; Pope, Catherine; Corner, Jessica; Leydon, Geraldine; Banerjee, Anindo

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate why symptoms indicative of early-stage lung cancer (LC) were not presented to general practitioners (GPs) and how early symptoms might be better elicited within primary care. Design, setting and participants A qualitative cross-sectional interview study about symptoms and help-seeking in 20 patients from three south England counties, awaiting resection of LC (suspected or histologically confirmed). Analysis drew on principles of discourse analysis and constant comparison to identify processes involved in interpretation and communication about symptoms, and explain non-presentation. Results Most participants experienced health changes possibly indicative of LC which had not been presented during GP consultations. Symptoms that were episodic, or potentially caused by ageing or lifestyle, were frequently not presented to GPs. In interviews, open questions about health changes/symptoms in general did not elicit these symptoms; they only emerged in response to closed questions detailing specific changes in health. Questions using disease-related labels, for example, pain or breathlessness, were less likely to elicit symptoms than questions that used non-disease terminology, such as aches, discomfort or ‘getting out of breath’. Most participants described themselves as feeling well and were reluctant to associate potentially explained, non-specific or episodic symptoms with LC, even after diagnosis. Conclusions Patients with early LC are unlikely to present symptoms possibly indicative of LC that they associate with normal processes, when attending primary care before diagnosis. Faced with patients at high LC risk, GPs will need to actively elicit potential LC symptoms not presented by the patient. Closed questions using non-disease terminology might better elicit normalised symptoms. PMID:23166137

  6. EEG activities during elicited sleep onset REM and NREM periods reflect different mechanisms of dream generation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tomoka Takeuchi; Robert D Ogilvie; Timothy I Murphy; Anthony V Ferrelli

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To be the first to compare EEG power spectra during sleep onset REM periods (SOREMP) and sleep onset NREM periods (NREMP) in normal individuals and relate this to dream appearance processes underlying these different types of sleep periods.Methods: Eight healthy undergraduates spent 7 consecutive nights in the sleep lab including 4 nights for SOREMP elicitation using the Sleep Interruption

  7. EEG activities during elicited sleep onset REM and NREM periods reflect different mechanisms of dream generation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tomoka Takeuchi; Robert D. Ogilvie; Timothy I. Murphy; Anthony V. Ferrellie

    Objective: To be the first to compare EEG power spectra during sleep onset REM periods (SOREMP) and sleep onset NREM periods (NREMP) in normal individuals and relate this to dream appearance processes underlying these different types of sleep periods. Methods: Eight healthy undergraduates spent 7 consecutive nights in the sleep lab including 4 nights for SOREMP elicitation using the Sleep

  8. Inverting faces elicits sensitivity to race on the N170 component: A cross-cultural study

    E-print Network

    Williamson, John

    Inverting faces elicits sensitivity to race on the N170 component: A cross-cultural study at processing faces, with some notable exceptions. Same-race faces are better recognized than other-race faces: the so-called other-race effect (ORE). Inverting faces impairs recognition more than for any other

  9. Requirements for Electronic Commerce Applications are created rather than elicited1

    E-print Network

    van Vliet, Hans

    -1- Requirements for Electronic Commerce Applications are created rather than elicited1 Jaap e-mail: gordijn@cs.vu.nl Bakkenist Management Consultants Postbox 23103, 1100 DP Amsterdam@cs.vu.nl Keywords Business model, process model, software architecture, electronic commerce, requirements creation

  10. The use of freelisting to elicit stakeholder understanding of the benefits sought from healthcare buildings

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Derek Thomson; Ammar Kaka; Laura Pronk; Chaham Alalouch

    2012-01-01

    The process of elicitation and synthesis of the collective understanding of a cultural domain held by a group of stakeholders is challenging. This problem typifies the pre-project activity from which a coherent understanding of the benefits sought from infrastructure investment must emerge to inform the business case rationale. The anthropological freelisting method is evaluated as a solution by determining its

  11. Design of a hyper media tool to support requirements elicitation meetings

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Haruhiko Kaiya; Motoshi Saeki; Koichiro Ochimizu

    1995-01-01

    Introduces a hypermedia tool for requirements elicitation meetings. We consider such a meeting to be a consensus-making process among the participants, who have their own roles. Participants in the meeting usually repeat the following activities to reach the final specification: (a) preparing the agenda and\\/or final specification for the next meeting while referring both to their own memory and the

  12. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

  13. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain

    PubMed Central

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define “expertise” from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of “pure” mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

  14. Application of an expert system to optimize reservoir performance

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ridha Gharbi

    2005-01-01

    The main challenge of oil displacement by an injected fluid, such as in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) processes, is to reduce the cost and improve reservoir performance. An optimization methodology, combined with an economic model, is implemented into an expert system to optimize the net present value of full field development with an EOR process. The approach is automated and

  15. What Is an "Expert Student?"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sternberg, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    This article suggests that conventional methods of teaching may, at best, create pseudo-experts--students whose expertise, to the extent they have it, does not mirror the expertise needed for real-world thinking inside or outside of the academic disciplines schools normally teach. It is suggested that teaching for "successful intelligence" may…

  16. How to use expert advice

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi; Yoav Freund; David Haussler; David P. Helmbold; Robert E. Schapire; Manfred K. Warmuth

    1997-01-01

    We analyze algorithms that predict a binary value by combining the predictions of several prediction strategies, called experts. Our analysis is for worst-case situations, i.e., we make no assumptions about the way the sequence of bits to be predicted is generated. We measure the performance of the algorithm by the difference between the expected number of mistakes it makes on

  17. CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT

    E-print Network

    of the information in this report. #12;ABSTRACT The California Energy Commission established the Demand Analysis Expert Panel to evaluate the CEC's approach for developing projections of California's electricity growth. 3. We think that the usual dichotomy between end-use and econometric models is not very useful

  18. Ask an Expert with Style.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ekhaml, Leticia

    1999-01-01

    Discusses electronic mail use in elementary/secondary education focusing on a comparison/review of award-winning Internet-based Virtual Reference Desk Exemplary Services (Ask Dr. Math, Ask A Volcanologist, How Things Work, AskERIC, Mad Scientist, Shamu, and American Art) that provide ask-an-expert question and answer services. Home pages, delivery…

  19. Bayesian Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Christopher M. Bishop; Markus Svensén

    2003-01-01

    The Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) is a well-known tree-structured model for regres- sion and classification, based on soft probabilis- tic splits of the input space. In its original for- mulation its parameters are determined by maxi- mum likelihood, which is prone to severe over- fitting, including singularities in the likelihood function. Furthermore the maximum likelihood framework offers no natural

  20. The Expert System for Thermodynamics

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Subrata Bhattacharjee

    The Expert System for Thermodynamics (TEST) is a web-based software platform used to analyze thermofluids problems, verify hand calculations, pursue what-if scenarios, visualize thermal systems, and conduct other investigations in thermodynamics. Site materials include problem sets, examples, animations, and calculating tools to be used in solving problems. There is also a tutorial and visual tour of the platform.

  1. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses…

  2. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  3. An expert sample analysis planner

    SciTech Connect

    Spencer, W.A.; Parks, W.S.

    1990-01-01

    Analytical chemists are faced with the problem of choosing an appropriate analytical technique for a particular sample and weighing the options as they affect precision, time, and cost. This paper describes a computer technique to assist managers in reviewing the alternatives and to match needs with the resources available. This paper proposes an expert system, knowledgeable of analytical chemistry techniques, to create sample plans. Sample planning is an appropriate topic for expert systems because scarce human expertise is required to complete sample plans. A sample plan is the description of how samples received at the Savannah River Laboratory are handled, controlled, measured, and dispositioned. Sample planning is difficult because multiple experts are needed, planning is not a static function, and planning is time consuming. An Expert Sample Analyses Planner (XSAP) is proposed to create sample plans for laboratory managers. XSAP supplements the scarce knowledge of analytical techniques creating sample plans based on analysis constraints, methods available, and time requirements. XSAP interacts with the chemist to suggest sample plans. XSAP considers equipment available locally, at other Savannah River laboratories, at other Department of Energy facilities, and at other commercial laboratories. XSAP allows options on scheduling: best solution, cheapest solution, best local solution, and fastest solution. 26 refs.

  4. LYMAN MAYNARD STOWE Expert staff

    E-print Network

    Kim, Duck O.

    .uchc.edu/departm/hnet Computer Education Center (CEC): (860) 679-8870 library.uchc.edu/departm/cec/ ACCESSIBILITY: If you needLYMAN MAYNARD STOWE LIBRARY Expert staff Authoritative resources Visit us online or in person Main Academic Lobby http://library.uchc.edu UConn Health Center 263 Farmington Avenue Farmington, CT 06032 (860

  5. Ask the Experts -- October 2005

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2005-10-01

    The Experts tackle the question, "What is the underlying natural phenomenon that causes the natural log function to show up so frequently in scientific equations? and "Why do some hairs on the human body grow indefinitely while others grow to a certain length and then stop? How does hair know when to stop?"

  6. A middle man approach to knowledge acquisition in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, Janice A.; Lin, Min-Jin; Mayer, Richard J.; Sterle, Mark E.

    1990-01-01

    The Weed Control Advisor (WCA) is a robust expert system that has been successfully implemented on an IBM AT class microcomputer in CLIPS. The goal of the WCA was to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an economical, efficient, user friendly system through which Texas rice producers could obtain expert level knowledge regarding herbicide application for weed control. During the development phase of the WCA, an improved knowledge acquisition method which we call the Middle Man Approach (MMA) was applied to facilitate the communication process between the domain experts and the knowledge engineer. The MMA served to circumvent the problems associated with the more traditional forms of knowledge acquisition by placing the Middle Man, a semi-expert in the problem domain with some computer expertise, at the site of system development. The middle man was able to contribute to system development in two major ways. First, the Middle Man had experience working in rice production and could assume many of the responsibilities normally performed by the domain experts such as explaining the background of the problem domain and determining the important relations. Second, the Middle Man was familiar with computers and worked closely with the system developers to update the rules after the domain experts reviewed the prototype, contribute to the help menus and explanation portions of the expert system, conduct the testing that is required to insure that the expert system gives the expected results answer questions in a timely way, help the knowledge engineer structure the domain knowledge into a useable form, and provide insight into the end user's profile which helped in the development of the simple user friendly interface. The final results were not only that both time expended and costs were greatly reduced by using the MMA, but the quality of the system was improved. This papa will introduce the WCA system and then discuss traditional knowledge acquisition along with some of the problems often associated with it, the MMA methodology, and its application to the WCA development.

  7. Effects of Feeding Spodoptera littoralis on Lima Bean Leaves. II. Continuous Mechanical Wounding Resembling Insect Feeding Is Sufficient to Elicit Herbivory-Related Volatile Emission

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Axel Mithofer; Gerhard Wanner; Wilhelm Boland

    2005-01-01

    Herbivore feeding elicits defense responses in infested plants, including the emission of volatile organic compounds that can serve as indirect defense signals. Until now, the contribution of plant tissue wounding during the feeding process in the elicitation of defense responses has not been clear. For example, in lima bean (Phaseolus lunatus), the composition of the volatiles induced by both the

  8. Shape-specific activation of occipital cortex in an early blind echolocation expert.

    PubMed

    Arnott, Stephen R; Thaler, Lore; Milne, Jennifer L; Kish, Daniel; Goodale, Melvyn A

    2013-04-01

    We have previously reported that an early-blind echolocating individual (EB) showed robust occipital activation when he identified distant, silent objects based on echoes from his tongue clicks (Thaler, Arnott, & Goodale, 2011). In the present study we investigated the extent to which echolocation activation in EB's occipital cortex reflected general echolocation processing per se versus feature-specific processing. In the first experiment, echolocation audio sessions were captured with in-ear microphones in an anechoic chamber or hallway alcove as EB produced tongue clicks in front of a concave or flat object covered in aluminum foil or a cotton towel. All eight echolocation sessions (2 shapes×2 surface materials×2 environments) were then randomly presented to him during a sparse-temporal scanning fMRI session. While fMRI contrasts of chamber versus alcove-recorded echolocation stimuli underscored the importance of auditory cortex for extracting echo information, main task comparisons demonstrated a prominent role of occipital cortex in shape-specific echo processing in a manner consistent with latent, multisensory cortical specialization. Specifically, relative to surface composition judgments, shape judgments elicited greater BOLD activity in ventrolateral occipital areas and bilateral occipital pole. A second echolocation experiment involving shape judgments of objects located 20° to the left or right of straight ahead activated more rostral areas of EB's calcarine cortex relative to location judgments of those same objects and, as we previously reported, such calcarine activity was largest when the object was located in contralateral hemispace. Interestingly, other echolocating experts (i.e., a congenitally blind individual in Experiment 1, and a late blind individual in Experiment 2) did not show the same pattern of feature-specific echo-processing calcarine activity as EB, suggesting the possible significance of early visual experience and early echolocation training. Together, our findings indicate that the echolocation activation in EB's occipital cortex is feature-specific, and that these object representations appear to be organized in a topographic manner. PMID:23391560

  9. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems: Will They Change the Library? Papers Presented at the Annual Clinic on Library Applications of Data Processing (27th, Urbana, Illinois, March 25-27, 1990). Illinois, March 25-27, 1990).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lancaster, F. W., Ed.; Smith, Linda C., Ed.

    Some of the 12 conference papers presented in this proceedings focus on the present and potential capabilities of artificial intelligence and expert systems as they relate to a wide range of library applications, including descriptive cataloging, technical services, collection development, subject indexing, reference services, database searching,…

  10. Coherent approximation of distributed expert assessments

    E-print Network

    Jones, Peter B., Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgments of probability and expectation play an integral role in many systems. Financial markets, public policy, medical diagnostics and more rely on the ability of informed experts (both human and machine) to make ...

  11. Do expert systems impact taxpayer behavior?

    E-print Network

    Olshewsky, Steven J.

    2004-09-30

    Individuals are increasingly using expert system tax programs as a substitute for paid professionals when preparing their income tax returns. This study examines ways that expert systems encourage the same aggressive results documented when paid...

  12. The nature of expertise in fingerprint matching: experts can do a lot with a little.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Matthew B; Tangen, Jason M

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of "information" available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect-experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints-but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony. PMID:25517509

  13. The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Matching: Experts Can Do a Lot with a Little

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Matthew B.; Tangen, Jason M.

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of “information” available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect—experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints—but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony. PMID:25517509

  14. Expert System For Heat Exchanger

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagby, D. Gordon; Cormier, Reginald A.

    1991-01-01

    Diagnosis simplified for non-engineers. Developmental expert-system computer program assists operator in controlling, monitoring operation, diagnosing malfunctions, and ordering repairs of heat-exchanger system dissipating heat generated by 20-kW radio transmitter. System includes not only heat exchanger but also pumps, fans, sensors, valves, reservoir, and associated plumbing. Program conceived to assist operator while avoiding cost of keeping engineer in full-time attendance. Similar programs developed for heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems.

  15. Ask the Experts -- March 2005

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2005-03-01

    The Experts are at it again! In this month's column, they tackle the question: "What would be considered a native species in a place such as Hawaii? Isn't everything there really introduced, since nothing live came up with the lava from the ocean waters when the islands formed?" and "How do we know what the Milky Way looks like from a great distance when we have never left it?"

  16. The Experts in Electronic Evidence

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The ATETV project delivers web-based videos to connect students to careers in advanced technology. In this episode of ATETV, we learn about the work that computer forensic examiners do. Companies hire these experts to help recover and protect their data. Seeing the practical applications of what they are learning will be helpful for current students. Running time for the episode is 2:18.

  17. Expert system for carbonate reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Stout, J.L.

    1986-08-01

    In the study of reservoirs, they may conclude that although reservoir rocks must be porous and permeable, porosity and permeability alone do not necessarily make a reservoir. Virtually all trapping seals result from chemical and mechanical diagenesis, such as the amount and geometry of residual porosity, resealing capacity of cement, and physical properties of the pore-filling media. Knowledge of pore geometry includes capillary-pressure curves, porosity, and permeability, which can be adapted to expert systems. This involves the carbonate petrographer working with a knowledge engineer. They design the knowledge base and interact with each other to create a reservoir model. This provides a tool for the end-user, who is interested in making a better, more informed economic decision. Under reservoir conditions, pores in rocks are generally occupied by two fluids: water and oil. Movement and occurrence of these fluids are controlled by well-defined physical laws. Oil is the nonwetting phase in which they are most interested. The expert system's rules help define the forces pressing on oil globules, causing migration through the rock. Photomicrographs of Williston basin carbonate rocks show low displacement pressure, effective total porosity, and good permeability. Expert system technology as applied here to reservoir parameters is concerned with producing problem-solving systems. These knowledge-intensive applications demonstrate a high-degree of performance in specialized areas such as carbonate petrophysics.

  18. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  19. Eliciting Change in Maltreating Fathers: Goals, Processes, and Desired Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crooks, Claire V.; Scott, Katreena L.; Francis, Karen J.; Kelly, Tim; Reid, Maureen

    2006-01-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the need to provide appropriate intervention services to fathers who have been abusive in their families. This paper highlights four specific treatment goals for fathers who maltreat their children, along with therapeutic strategies necessary to accomplish desired outcomes. These goals were developed as part…

  20. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    E-print Network

    Wu, Rongcong

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition ...

  1. Internet-Based Expert Systems Ralph Grove

    E-print Network

    Grove, Ralph

    . There are now a large number of expert systems available on the Internet, including applications in industryInternet-Based Expert Systems Ralph Grove Indiana University of Pennsylvania Computer Science Dept;2 Internet-Based Expert Systems Abstract The Internet offers a large potential for delivery of various

  2. Framework Model for Shell Expert System

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Hussein H. Owaied; Monzer Moh; Hazim A. Farhan

    2009-01-01

    Summary In the design and implementation of any expert system, there are many problems should be considered and study carefully. In reality, human experts have common sense, deduction and analogical reasoning facilities. The proposed framework model for shell expert system is based on the integration of two different knowledge representation formats (scheme) in the knowledge base. The proposed scheme is

  3. Embodiment of motor skills when observing expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Sinnett, Scott; Hodges, Nicola J; Chua, Romeo; Kingstone, Alan

    2011-04-01

    If people are shown a dynamic movie of an action such as kicking a soccer ball or hitting a tennis ball, they will respond to it faster if it requires the same effector. This standard congruency effect was reported to reverse when participants viewed static images of famous athletes not actually performing an action. It was suggested that the congruent response was inhibited because of a social contrast effect, based on an implied action, whereby responders viewed themselves as comparatively worse than the professional athlete. The present study recorded hand and foot responses when identifying static images of both famous and novice athletes in soccer and tennis. The action was either explicit or implied. In Experiment 1, a standard congruency effect was found for all images. In Experiment 2, when a response was based on the identity of the athlete rather than their expertise, the standard congruency effect was enhanced for images of novice athletes, but was eliminated for experts, suggesting a social contrast effect. Our study is the first to show that embodiment effects can be seen for implied and explicit action images of both novices and experts, and that static images are capable of eliciting priming effects associated with sport-relevant effector pairings. PMID:20967689

  4. Expected Shortfall is not elicitable so what? Dirk Tasche

    E-print Network

    Grübel, Rudolf

    Expected Shortfall is not elicitable ­ so what? Dirk Tasche Bank of England ­ Prudential Regulation of the Bank of England. Dirk Tasche (PRA) ES is not elicitable ­ so what? 1 / 29 #12;Outline Background Risk? Homogeneity ("double exposure double risk"): (h L) = h (L), h 0. (1a) Subadditivity ("reward diversification

  5. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and physiological (heart…

  6. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

  7. DEVELOPMENT OF AN INSTRUMENT FOR ELICITING AND EVALUATING VOCATIONAL IMAGERY.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MATHEWSON, ROBERT H.; ORTON, JOHN W.

    THIS STUDY WAS CONDUCTED TO (1) PRODUCE AN INSTRUMENT FOR ELICITING VOCATIONAL IMAGERY FOR USE IN THE EDUCATIONAL-VOCATIONAL ORIENTATION AND COUNSELING OF HIGH SCHOOL YOUTH, AND (2) DEVELOP A SCALE FOR EVALUATING THE MATURITY OF THE VOCATIONAL IMAGERY ELICITED BY THE INSTRUMENT. A PREVIOUSLY DESIGNED INSTRUMENT "WHAT I THINK OF MYSELF" (A…

  8. An adaptive questioning procedure for eliciting PROMETHEE IIs weight

    E-print Network

    Libre de Bruxelles, Université

    An adaptive questioning procedure for eliciting PROMETHEE IIs weight parameters Co PROMETHEE IIs weight parameters CoDE-SMG ­ Technical Report Series Stefan Eppe stefan.eppe@ulb.ac.be Yves De;An adaptive questioning procedure for eliciting PROMETHEE II's weight parameters Stefan Eppe and Yves

  9. Eliciting Spontaneous Speech in Bilingual Students: Methods & Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornejo, Ricardo J.; And Others

    Intended to provide practical information pertaining to methods and techniques for speech elicitation and production, the monograph offers specific methods and techniques to elicit spontaneous speech in bilingual students. Chapter 1, "Traditional Methodologies for Language Production and Recording," presents an overview of studies using various…

  10. Methodological Support for Requirements Elicitation and Formal Specification

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Maritta Heisel; Jeanine Souquieres

    1998-01-01

    We propose a method for the elicitation and the expression of requirements. The requirements can then be transformed in a systematic way into a formal specification that is a suitable basis for design and implementation of a software system. The approach -- which distinguishes between requirements and specifications -- gives methodological support for requirements elicitation and specification development. It does

  11. Eliciting and Specifying Requirements with Use Cases for Embedded Systems

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eman Nasr; John A. Mcdermid; Guillem Bernat

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes enhancements to the use case technique for eliciting and specifying requirements for embedded systems. The work resulted from the employment of the use case technique for the requirements elicitation and specification of embedded systems in an industrial context. The use case technique is currently considered the state-of-the-art for handling requirements, because of the many benefits it provides.

  12. Information Elicitation Sans Verification Bo Waggoner, Harvard University

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    39 Information Elicitation Sans Verification Bo Waggoner, Harvard University Yiling Chen, Harvard motivated study of a question in mechanism design: How do we elicit useful information when we are unable to verify reports? Existing methods, such as peer prediction and Bayesian truth serum, require assumptions

  13. Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation and Incorporation into Class Diagrams

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation and Incorporation into Class Diagrams Xiaoyu Song, Zhenhua requirement analysis and design, regardless of the non-functional aspects. This disassociation makes architecture comprehension and evolution hard. This paper proposes a strategy on how to elicit non

  14. A Method for Requirements Elicitation and Formal Specification

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Maritta Heisel; Jeanine Souquières

    1999-01-01

    We propose a method for the elicitation and the expression of requirements. The requirements are then transformed in a systematic\\u000a way into a formal specification. The approach — which distinguishes between requirements and specifications — gives methodological\\u000a support for requirements elicitation and specification development. It avoids introducing new notations but builds on known\\u000a techniques.

  15. A Prototype of Information Requirement Elicitation in m-Commerce

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Hoh Peter In; Kuncara Aji Sukasdadi

    2003-01-01

    Information requirement elicitation (IRE) is a context-aware and personalized wireless web service to elicit user information requirements through interactive choice prompts. The authors developed a prototype of IRE and demonstrated its operations in an imagined m-Commerce scenario. This article also gives the result of a preliminary usability study.

  16. DECISION-THEORETIC ELICITATION OF GENERALIZED ADDITIVE UTILITIES

    E-print Network

    Toronto, University of

    DECISION-THEORETIC ELICITATION OF GENERALIZED ADDITIVE UTILITIES by Darius Brazi¯unas A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department-theoretic elicitation of generalized additive utilities Darius Brazi¯unas Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department

  17. A Requirements Elicitation Approach Based in Templates and Patterns

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Amador Durán Toro; B. Bernárdez Jiménez; Antonio Ruiz Cortés; M. Toro Bonilla

    1999-01-01

    One of the main problems of requirements elicitation is expressing customer requirements in a form that can be understood not only by require- ments engineers but also by noncomputer professional customers and users. The usual choice for expressing elicited requirements is natural language, since it is frequently the only common language to all participants. Problems of natural language are well-known,

  18. Modeling Causal Reinforcement and Undermining for Efficient CPT Elicitation

    E-print Network

    Xiang, Yang

    1 Modeling Causal Reinforcement and Undermining for Efficient CPT Elicitation Yang Xiang and Ning Jia Abstract-- Representation of uncertain knowledge using a Bayesian network requires acquisition of a conditional probabil- ity table (CPT) for each variable. The CPT can be acquired by data mining or elicitation

  19. Effective Requirements Development - A Comparison of Requirements Elicitation Techniques

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Zheying Zhang

    The inadequate knowledge about requirements elicitation techniques and the lack of understanding of the situational context forms an essential barrier to requirements engineering. It influences the requirements specification quality and the consequent development activities. In this paper, the requirements elicitation techniques are classified into four categories based on the means of communication, i.e. conversational, observational, analytic and synthetic techniques. The

  20. A Modular Framework for Multi-Agent Preference Elicitation

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    A Modular Framework for Multi-Agent Preference Elicitation A dissertation presented by S´ebastien Lahaie to The School of Engineering and Applied Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements. Parkes S´ebastien Lahaie A Modular Framework for Multi-Agent Preference Elicitation Abstract I present

  1. Matchin: eliciting user preferences with an online game

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Severin Hacker; Luis Von Ahn

    2009-01-01

    Eliciting user preferences for large datasets and creating rankings based on these preferences has many practical applications in community-based sites. This paper gives a new method to elicit user preferences that does not ask users to tell what they prefer, but rather what a random person would prefer, and rewards them if their prediction is correct. We provide an implementation

  2. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Internet Surveys.

    PubMed

    Delavande, Adeline; Rohwedder, Susann

    2008-12-01

    Individuals' subjective expectations are important in explaining heterogeneity in individual choices, but their elicitation poses some challenges, in particular when one is interested in the subjective probability distribution of an individual. We have developed an innovative visual representation for Internet surveys that has some advantages over previously used formats. In this paper we present our findings from testing this visual representation in the context of individuals' Social Security expectations. Respondents are asked to allocate a total of 20 balls across seven bins to express what they believe the chances to be that their future Social Security benefits would fall into any one of those bins. Our data come from the Internet Survey of respondents to the Health and Retirement Study, a representative survey of the U.S. population age 51 and older. To contrast the results from the visual format with a previously used format we divided the sample into two random groups and administered both, the visual format and the more standard percent chance format. Our findings suggest that the main advantage of the visual format is that it generates usable answers for virtually all respondents in the sample while in the percent chance format a significant fraction (about 20 percent) of responses is lost due to inconsistencies. Across various other dimensions the visual format performs similarly to the percent chance format, leading us to conclude that the bins-and-balls format is a viable alternative that leads to more complete data. PMID:20862271

  3. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  4. Flight Experiments for Hypersonic Vehicle Development Expert

    E-print Network

    unknown authors

    The paper addresses the ESA in flight Aerothermodynamic (ATD) research programme referred to as EXPERT: the European EXPerimental Re-entry Testbed. The objective of this in-flight research programme is to design and instrument generic configurations, for inflight measurements of critical ATD phenomena using state-of-the-art instrumentation. Hypersonic flight data are required for improved understanding of the following critical ATD phenomena:- Transition,- Catalicity and oxidation,- Real gas effects on shock wave boundary layer interactions,- Microaerothermodynamics,- Blackout. Special attention is given to the design of the flight measurement sensors themselves, their integration into the TPS as well as to the measurement of the free stream parameters during re-entry using an Air Data System. In addition to the procurement of “good enough ” hypersonic data, the EXPERT programme includes also windtunnel testing and numerical simulations to complete the above listed critical ATD validation process including windtunnel to flight extrapolation activities. The present paper will report on: selection of reference mission profiles offered by Volna launcher, geometrical design optimisation of the configuration and elaborate on the embarked payloads for the provision of the hypersonic data associated with the above listed critical ATD phenomena.

  5. A neural network hybrid expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Goulding, J.R. (Portland State Univ., OR (USA). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering)

    1991-01-01

    When knowledge-based expert rules, equations, and proprietary languages extend Computer Aided Design and Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAD CAM) software, previously designed mechanisms can be scaled to satisfy new design requirements in the shortest time. However, embedded design alternatives needed by design engineers during the product conception and rework stages are lacking, and an operator is required who has a thorough understanding of the intended design and the how-to expertise needed to create and optimize the mechanisms. By applying neural network technology to build an expert system, a robust design supervisor system emerged which automated the embedded intellectual operations (e.g. questioning, identifying, selecting, and coordinating the design process) to (1) select the best mechanisms necessary to design a power transmission gearbox from proven solutions; (2) aid the inexperienced operator in developing complex design solutions; and (3) provide design alternatives which add back-to-the-drawing board capabilities to knowledge-based mechanical CAD/CAM software programs. 15 refs., 2 figs.

  6. WHO expert committee on drug dependence.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    This report presents the recommendations of a WHO Expert Committee responsible for reviewing information on psychoactive substances to assess the need for their international control. The report contains a summary of the Committee's evaluations of gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) and ketamine. GHB was recommended to be rescheduled from Schedule IV to Schedule II of the Convention on Psychotropic Substances. The report also discusses the nine substances that were pre-reviewed: dextromethorphan, tapentadol, N-benzylpiperazine (BZP), 1-(3-trifluoromethylphenyl) piperazine (TFMPP), 1-(3-chlorophenyl)piperazine (mCPP), 1-(4-methoxyphenyl)piperazine (MeOPP), 1-(3,4-methylenedioxybenzyl)piperazine (MDBP), gamma-butyrolactone (GBL), and 1,4-butanediol (1,4-BD). Of these, tapentadol, BZP, GBL and 1,4-BD were recommended for critical review. Issues identified for consideration at future Expert Committee meetings are also listed. Furthermore, the report discusses the use of terms, the use of pharmacovigilance data for the assessment of abuse and dependence potential, balancing medical availability and prevention of abuse of medicines manufactured from controlled substances, and improving the process for substance evaluation. PMID:24547667

  7. NASA ground terminal communication equipment automated fault isolation expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Y. K.; Wetzel, C. R.

    1990-01-01

    The prototype expert systems are described that diagnose the Distribution and Switching System I and II (DSS1 and DSS2), Statistical Multiplexers (SM), and Multiplexer and Demultiplexer systems (MDM) at the NASA Ground Terminal (NGT). A system level fault isolation expert system monitors the activities of a selected data stream, verifies that the fault exists in the NGT and identifies the faulty equipment. Equipment level fault isolation expert systems are invoked to isolate the fault to a Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) level. Input and sometimes output data stream activities for the equipment are available. The system level fault isolation expert system compares the equipment input and output status for a data stream and performs loopback tests (if necessary) to isolate the faulty equipment. The equipment level fault isolation system utilizes the process of elimination and/or the maintenance personnel's fault isolation experience stored in its knowledge base. The DSS1, DSS2 and SM fault isolation systems, using the knowledge of the current equipment configuration and the equipment circuitry issues a set of test connections according to the predefined rules. The faulty component or board can be identified by the expert system by analyzing the test results. The MDM fault isolation system correlates the failure symptoms with the faulty component based on maintenance personnel experience. The faulty component can be determined by knowing the failure symptoms. The DSS1, DSS2, SM, and MDM equipment simulators are implemented in PASCAL. The DSS1 fault isolation expert system was converted to C language from VP-Expert and integrated into the NGT automation software for offline switch diagnoses. Potentially, the NGT fault isolation algorithms can be used for the DSS1, SM, amd MDM located at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).

  8. Modeling Multi-step Relevance Propagation for Expert Finding

    E-print Network

    Hiemstra, Djoerd

    finding by probabilistic random walks of three kinds: finite, infinite and absorbing. Experiments on TREC, expertise, expert finding, language mod- els, random walks, Markov processes 1. INTRODUCTION In large employees, even consultants for other consultants to redirect inquiries and not to lose clients [26

  9. A training course for experts in diabetology in primary care.

    PubMed

    Hart, Huberta E; Rutten, Guy E H M

    2015-02-01

    In the Netherlands so-called Diabetes Care Groups organize the primary diabetes care centrally with delegation to different health care providers. A training course for general practitioners who would like to become experts in diabetology in the primary care setting meets the need to guide the quality management processes in these care groups. PMID:24418461

  10. Experts Fear Handwriting Will become a Lost Art

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zubrzycki, Jaclyn

    2012-01-01

    Educators and experts say students still need to learn penmanship, even in a digital age. Handwriting still has a place in the digital age, its proponents say, and they hoped that what they billed as a "summit" on the subject at a conference would spotlight their case for the enduring value of handwriting in the learning process. The Washington…

  11. An expert display system and nuclear power plant control rooms

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. Beltracchi

    1988-01-01

    An expert display system controls automatically the display of segments on a cathode ray tube's screen to form an image of plant operations. The image consists of an icon of: 1) the process (heat engine cycle), 2) plant control systems, and 3) safety systems. A set of data-driven, forward-chaining computer stored rules control the display of segments. As plant operation

  12. Automated Tools for Subject Matter Expert Evaluation of Automated Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williamson, David M.; Bejar, Isaac I.; Sax, Anne

    2004-01-01

    As automated scoring of complex constructed-response examinations reaches operational status, the process of evaluating the quality of resultant scores, particularly in contrast to scores of expert human graders, becomes as complex as the data itself. Using a vignette from the Architectural Registration Examination (ARE), this article explores the…

  13. Specification for Qualification and Certification for Level III - Expert Welders.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Welding Society, Miami, FL.

    This document defines the requirements and program for the American Welding Society to certify expert welders through an evaluation process entailing performance qualification and practical knowledge tests requiring the use of advanced reading, computational, and manual skills. The following items are included: statement of the standard's scope;…

  14. VISUAL SPAN IN EXPERT CHESS PLAYERS: Evidence From Eye Movements

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eyal M. Reingold; Neil Charness; Marc Pomplun; Dave M. Stampe

    2002-01-01

    The reported research extends classic findings that after briefly viewing structured, but not random, chess positions, chess masters reproduce these positions much more accurately than less- skilled players. Using a combination of the gaze-contingent window paradigm and thechange blindness flicker paradigm, we documented dramatically larger visual spans for experts while processing struc- tured, but not random, chess positions. In addition,

  15. An automated diagnostic expert system for diesel engines

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. K. Autar

    1996-01-01

    Fault diagnosis of diesel engines can be a tedious time-consuming process, resulting in extended downtime, thus reducing productivity and increasing operational cost. This problem can be accentuated when experienced expert maintenance personnel are in short supply and also when the rate of development of new-generation engines using leading edge technology does not permit maintenance personnel to keep up with this

  16. Formalization and representation of expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tausner, M.R.

    1986-01-01

    Based on a critical analysis of the canonical forms of expert systems, definitions of classical forward-chaining production rule-based expert systems and classical backward-chaining production rule based expert systems are isolated as the fundamental basic definitions of an expert system. Two representation theorems are presented for the two fundamental types of expert systems defined. Both the classical forward-chaining production rule based expert systems and classical backward chaining production rule based expert systems are shown to be representable as type 3 languages (finite state automata). The pragmatic usefulness of the finite state representation of an expert system is established in the design of a multilevel expert system for general systems problems solving. A type 3 language is used to encapsulate the knowledge base and reasoning strategies of the front-end of the expert system, thus representing the front-end as a deterministic finite automation. This provides a new approach to the problem of interfacing multilevel expert systems.

  17. System for empirical experimentation with expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Politakis, P.; Weiss, S.M.

    1982-01-01

    SEEK is a system which has been developed to give interactive advice about rule refinement during the design of an expert system. The advice takes the form of suggestions for possible experiments in generalizing or specializing rules in an expert model that has been specified based on reasoning rules cited by the expert. Case experience, in the form of stored cases with known conclusions, is used to interactively guide the expert in refining the rules of a model. The design framework of SEEK consists of a tabular model for expressing expert-modeled rules and a general consultation system for applying a model to specific cases. This approach has proven particularly valuable in assisting the expert in a domain where two diagnoses are difficult to distinguish. Examples are given from an expert consultation system being developed for rheumatology. 12 references.

  18. YUCSA: A CLIPS expert database system to monitor academic performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toptsis, Anestis A.; Ho, Frankie; Leindekar, Milton; Foon, Debra Low; Carbonaro, Mike

    1991-01-01

    The York University CLIPS Student Administrator (YUCSA), an expert database system implemented in C Language Integrated Processing System (CLIPS), for monitoring the academic performance of undergraduate students at York University, is discussed. The expert system component in the system has already been implemented for two major departments, and it is under testing and enhancement for more departments. Also, more elaborate user interfaces are under development. We describe the design and implementation of the system, problems encountered, and immediate future plans. The system has excellent maintainability and it is very efficient, taking less than one minute to complete an assessment of one student.

  19. An expert system that performs a satellite station keepimg maneuver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linesbrowning, M. Kate; Stone, John L., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The development and characteristics of a prototype expert system, Expert System for Satellite Orbit Control (ESSOC), capable of providing real-time spacecraft system analysis and command generation for a geostationary satellite are described. The ESSOC recommends appropriate commands that reflect both the changing spacecraft condition and previous procedural action. An internal knowledge base stores satellite status information and is updated with processed spacecraft telemetry. Procedural structure data are encoded in production rules. Structural methods of knowledge acquisition and the design and performance-enhancing techniques that enable ESSOC to operate in real time are also considered.

  20. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  1. Automatic Scoring of Virtual Mastoidectomies Using Expert Examples

    PubMed Central

    Kerwin, Thomas; Wiet, Gregory; Stredney, Don; Shen, Han-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Automatic scoring of resident performance on a virtual mastoidectomy simulation system is needed to achieve consistent and efficient evaluations. By not requiring immediate expert intervention, the system provides a completely objective assessment of performance as well as a self-driven user assessment mechanism. Methods An iconic temporal bone with surgically important regions defined into a fully partitioned segmented dataset was created. Comparisons between expert-drilled bones and student-drilled bones were computed based on gradations with both Euclidean and Earth Mover’s Distance. Using the features derived from these comparisons, a decision tree was constructed. This decision tree was used to determine scores of resident surgical performance. The algorithm was applied on multiple expert comparison bones and the scores averaged to provide reliability metric. Results The reliability metrics for the multi-grade scoring system are better in some cases than previously reported binary classification metrics. The two scoring methods given provide a trade-off between accuracy and speed. Conclusions Comparison of virtually drilled bones with expert examples on a voxel level provides sufficient information to score them and provide several specific quality metrics. By merging scores from different expert examples, two related metrics were developed; one is slightly faster and less accurate, while a second is more accurate but takes more processing time. PMID:21538158

  2. Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice

    E-print Network

    Sancetta, Alessio

    2006-03-14

    , D. Haussler, D.P. Helmbold, R.E. Schapire, M.K. Warmuth (1997) How to Use Expert Advice. Journal of the ACM 44, 427—485. [4] Cesa-Bianchi, N. and G. Lugosi (1999) On Prediction of Individual Sequences. The Annals of Statistics 27, 1865-1895. [5... Statistical Society Ser. A 147, 278-292. [7] Dawid, A.P. (1985) Calibration-Based Empirical Probability. The Annals of Statistics 13, 1251-1274. 30 [8] Dawid, A.P. (1986) Probability Forecasting. In S. Kotz, N.L. Johnson and C.B. Read (eds.), Encyclopedia...

  3. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

  4. Analyzing patterns in experts' approaches to solving experimental problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ?an?ula, Maja Poklinek; Planinši?, Gorazd; Etkina, Eugenia

    2015-04-01

    We report detailed observations of three pairs of expert scientists and a pair of advanced undergraduate students solving an experimental optics problem. Using a new method ("transition graphs") of visualizing sequences of logical steps, we were able to compare the groups and identify patterns that could not be found using previously existing methods. While the problem solving of undergraduates significantly differed from that of experts at the beginning of the process, it gradually became more similar to the expert problem solving. We mapped problem solving steps and their sequence to the elements of an approach to teaching and learning physics called Investigative Science Learning Environment (ISLE), and we speculate that the ISLE educational framework closely represents the actual work of physicists.

  5. Elicitation of lignin peroxidase in Streptomyces lividans

    SciTech Connect

    Yee, D.C.; Wood, T.K. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

    1996-08-01

    Using a novel starch-based medium (DJMM) which elicits high expression of lignin peroxidase (ALiP-P3) from Streptomyces viridosporus T7A, significant levels of ALiP-P3 (between 1135 and 1784 nmol/g cell-min) were excreted by S. lividans TK23, TK24, and TK64 with the supernatants capable of degrading dichlorophenol (these strains were previously reported to produce low levels of LiP). The S. lividans wild-type strains produced 1/9 to 1/6 the cell-specific LiP activity previously detected in S. viridosporus T7A cultures grown in the same starch-based medium; however, by using DJMM to increase the cell density, the volumetric activity of wild-type S. lividans TK23, TK24, and TK64 strains was increased 11- to 20-fold compared to cultivations in a yeast-extract-based medium. Consequently, this increase of LiP production allows the direct analysis of LiP activity in the supernatants of these strains without the need for enzyme concentration through ultrafiltration. Immunoblot analysis verified that a single 56.5 kDa band, secreted by all three strains, was extremely similar in size and immunologic reactivity to the 59.5 kDa ALiP-P3 isoform of S. viridosporus T7A. In addition, Western blot analysis was used to show that a previously cloned 4.1 kb chromosomal fragment of S. viridosporus T7A DNA did not contain the ALiP-P3 structural genes. 26 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Mechanisms and Neural Basis of Object and Pattern Recognition: A Study with Chess Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilalic, Merim; Langner, Robert; Erb, Michael; Grodd, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and…

  7. Knowledge Science: A Pragmatic Approach to Research in Expert Systems 1

    Microsoft Academic Search

    T. R. Addis

    Underlying the notion of Expert Systems is the relationship between Knowledge and Technology. Technology has tended to force the notion of knowledge into specific categories (such as data and processes) that are inappropriate for modelling our understanding of the world. Our inability to resolve this tension between knowledge and technology has been one of the major reasons why Expert Systems

  8. Application of Expert System with Fuzzy Logic in Teachers’ Performance Evaluation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Zia Ur Rehman Hafeez Ullah Amin Abdur Rashid Khan

    2011-01-01

    This paper depicts adaptation of expert systems technology using fuzzy logic to handle qualitative and uncertain facts in the decision making process. Human behaviors are mostly based upon qualitative facts, which cannot be numerically measured and hardly to decide correctly. This approach is an attempt to cope with such problems in the scenario of teachers’ performance evaluation. An Expert System

  9. Experts in Fast-Ball Sports Reduce Anticipation Timing Cost by Developing Inhibitory Control

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to examine the relationship between expertise in movement correction and rate of movement reprogramming within limited time periods, and to clarify the specific cognitive processes regarding superior reprogramming ability in experts. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in baseball experts (n = 7) and…

  10. Mechanisms and Neural Basis of Object and Pattern Recognition: A Study With Chess Experts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Merim Bilali?; Robert Langner; Michael Erb; Wolfgang Grodd

    2010-01-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and novices performing chess-related and -unrelated (visual) search tasks. As expected, the

  11. Towards a framework for the elicitation of dilemmas.

    PubMed

    Burger, Marc J C

    2008-08-01

    This paper covers the main findings of the doctoral research that was concerned with seeking to extend aspects of dilemma theory. In professional practice, the Trompenaars Hampden-Turner Dilemma Reconciliation Process(TM) is a vehicle delivering dilemma theory in application. It informs a manager or leader on how to explore the dilemmas they face, how to reconcile the tensions that result, and how to structure the action steps for implementing the reconciled solutions. This vehicle forms the professional practice of the author who seeks to bring more rigor to consulting practice and thereby also contribute to theory development in the domain. The critical review of dilemma theory reveals that previous authors are inconsistent and variously invalid in their use of the terms 'dilemma theory,' 'dilemma methodology,' 'dilemma process,' 'dilemma reconciliation,' etc., and therefore an attempt is made to resolve these inconsistencies by considering whether 'dilemmaism' at the meta-level might be positioned as a new paradigm of inquiry for (management) research that embodies ontological, epistemological, and methodical premises that frame an approach to the resolution of real world business problems in (multi) disciplinary; (multi) functional and (multi) cultural business environments. This research offers contributions to knowledge, professional practice and theory development from the exploration of the SPID model as a way to make the elicitation of dilemmas more rigorous and structured and in the broader context of exploring 'dilemmaism' as a new paradigm of inquiry. PMID:20046794

  12. Photolithography diagnostic expert systems: a systematic approach to problem solving in a wafer fabrication facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weatherwax Scott, Caroline; Tsareff, Christopher R.

    1990-06-01

    One of the main goals of process engineering in the semiconductor industry is to improve wafer fabrication productivity and throughput. Engineers must work continuously toward this goal in addition to performing sustaining and development tasks. To accomplish these objectives, managers must make efficient use of engineering resources. One of the tools being used to improve efficiency is the diagnostic expert system. Expert systems are knowledge based computer programs designed to lead the user through the analysis and solution of a problem. Several photolithography diagnostic expert systems have been implemented at the Hughes Technology Center to provide a systematic approach to process problem solving. This systematic approach was achieved by documenting cause and effect analyses for a wide variety of processing problems. This knowledge was organized in the form of IF-THEN rules, a common structure for knowledge representation in expert system technology. These rules form the knowledge base of the expert system which is stored in the computer. The systems also include the problem solving methodology used by the expert when addressing a problem in his area of expertise. Operators now use the expert systems to solve many process problems without engineering assistance. The systems also facilitate the collection of appropriate data to assist engineering in solving unanticipated problems. Currently, several expert systems have been implemented to cover all aspects of the photolithography process. The systems, which have been in use for over a year, include wafer surface preparation (HMDS), photoresist coat and softbake, align and expose on a wafer stepper, and develop inspection. These systems are part of a plan to implement an expert system diagnostic environment throughout the wafer fabrication facility. In this paper, the systems' construction is described, including knowledge acquisition, rule construction, knowledge refinement, testing, and evaluation. The roles played by the process engineering expert and the knowledge engineer are discussed. The features of the systems are shown, particularly the interactive quality of the consultations and the ease of system use.

  13. Expert-System Consultant To Operating Personnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heard, Astrid E.; Pinkowski, Patrick P.; Adler, Richard M.; Hosken, R. Bruce

    1992-01-01

    Artificial intelligence aids engineers and technicians in controlling and monitoring complicated systems. Operations Analyst for Distributed Systems (OPERA) software is developmental suite of expert-system computer programs helping engineers and technicians operating from number of computer workstations to control and monitor spacecraft during prelaunch and launch phases of operation. OPERA designed to serve as consultant to operating engineers and technicians. It preprocesses incoming data, using expertise collected from conglomerate of specialists in design and operation of various parts of system. Driven by menus and mouse-activated commands. Modified versions of OPERA used in chemical-processing plants, factories, banks, and other enterprises in which there are distributed-computer systems including computers that monitor or control other computers.

  14. Program for Experimentation With Expert Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engle, S. W.

    1986-01-01

    CERBERUS is forward-chaining, knowledge-based system program useful for experimentation with expert systems. Inference-engine mechanism performs deductions according to user-supplied rule set. Information stored in intermediate area, and user interrogated only when no applicable data found in storage. Each assertion posed by CERBERUS answered with certainty ranging from 0 to 100 percent. Rule processor stops investigating applicable rules when goal reaches certainty of 95 percent or higher. Capable of operating for wide variety of domains. Sample rule files included for animal identification, pixel classification in image processing, and rudimentary car repair for novice mechanic. User supplies set of end goals or actions. System complexity decided by user's rule file. CERBERUS written in FORTRAN 77.

  15. Expert system validation in prolog

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  16. Agreement of experts and non-experts in a desktop exercise evaluating exposure to asthmagens in the cotton and textile, and other industries.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Christine; Money, Annemarie; Agius, Raymond; de Vocht, Frank

    2015-03-01

    In the absence of personal exposure measurements, expert assessment, generally on a case-by-case basis, is often used to estimate exposures. However, the decision processes of individual experts when making assessments are unknown, making it difficult to assess the quality of these assessments or to compare different assessments to each other. We conducted a study in primarily the textile and cotton industries, but also in baking, metal work, and agriculture industries in which we assessed agreement between experts assessing intensity and probability of exposure in the absence of exposure measurements to compare how well their performance compares to agreement of non-desktop-based exercises reported in literature. In addition, agreement was compared with that of non-experts undertaking the same exercise, and results were further stratified to assess the impact of factors expected of affected assessments. Intraclass correlation coefficients of absolute agreement (ICC1) and consistency (ICC3) between raters were calculated. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated using a probabilistic simulation methodology developed previously. Fourteen occupational hygienists and exposure assessors with complete data for all 48 job descriptions and 8 non-experts participated. Although confidence intervals about correlation-coefficient differences are not reported, the individual limits were found to be so broad as to suggest that no statistically significant comparisons can be made. Nevertheless, preliminary observations are presented here as suggested by the computed means. Absolute agreement between expert raters was fair-good, but was somewhat better for intensity (ICC1 = 0.61) than for probability (ICC1 = 0.44) of exposure and was better for experts than non-experts. Estimated sensitivity was 0.95 and specificity 0.82 for intensity, and 0.91 and 0.78 for probability of exposure, respectively. Stratification for factors hypothesized to affect agreement did not show statistically significant differences, but consistent patterns of point estimates indicated that agreement between raters (both expert on non-experts) dropped for medium levels of information compared with little or extensive information. Inclusion of a photo or video generally improved agreement between experts but not between non-experts, whereas the year of the job description had no influence on the assessments. These data indicate that the desktop exposure assessment exercise was of similar quality to previously reported levels of agreement. Agreements between experts' assessments were independent of the time period of the job and can be improved by inclusion of visual material. Agreement between experts as well as the non-experts does not increase with the detail of provided job information. PMID:25324562

  17. Constructing and Clearing Combinatorial Exchanges Using Preference Elicitation Trey Smith and Tuomas Sandholm and Reid Simmons

    E-print Network

    Simmons, Reid

    Constructing and Clearing Combinatorial Exchanges Using Preference Elicitation Trey Smith then decides the task allocation among the agents. Unfortunately, such exchanges can require that bidders exchange using preference elicitation. This design extends existing analyses of elicitation

  18. Toward Experiential Utility Elicitation for Interface Customization Department of Computer Science

    E-print Network

    Boutilier, Craig

    Toward Experiential Utility Elicitation for Interface Customization Bowen Hui Department- fective models to learn individual preferences on- line requires domain models that associate ob elicitation techniques. However, most elicitation methods ask for users' predicted util- ities based

  19. Applying a pragmatics-based creativity-fostering technique to requirements elicitation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Luisa Mich; Cinzia Anesi; Daniel M. Berry

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes the application to requirements elicitation of an innovative creativity fostering technique based on a\\u000a model of the pragmatics of communication, the Elementary Pragmatic Model (EPM). The EPM has been used to define a creative\\u000a process, called EPMcreate (EPM Creative Requirements Engineering TEchnique) that consists of sixteen steps. In each step,\\u000a the problem is analyzed according to one

  20. Expert Meeting Report: Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.

  1. Preference Elicitation For General Random Utility Models Hossein Azari Soufiani

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    Preference Elicitation For General Random Utility Models Hossein Azari Soufiani SEAS , Harvard University azari@fas.harvard.edu David C. Parkes SEAS, Harvard University parkes@eecs.harvard.edu Lirong Xia

  2. Eliciting and detecting affect in covert and ethically sensitive situations

    E-print Network

    Davis, Philip Charles

    2005-01-01

    There is growing interest in creating systems that can sense the affective state of a user for a variety of applications. As a result, a large number of studies have been conducted with the goals of eliciting specific ...

  3. Security Asset Elicitation for Collaborative Models Maria Vasilevskaya1

    E-print Network

    Security Asset Elicitation for Collaborative Models Maria Vasilevskaya1 maria, Norway ABSTRACT Building secure systems is a difficult job for most engineers since it requires in assets present in the design. Further, required protection mechanisms are determined by applying

  4. The selection of experts evaluating health projects for the EU Sixth Framework Program.

    PubMed

    Quaglio, Gianluca; Guardabasso, Vincenzo; Olesen, Ole F; Draghia-Akli, Ruxandra

    2011-10-01

    AIM: The Framework Programmes for Research and Technological Development (FP) are the European Union's funding programmes for research in Europe. The study analyses the features of external experts involved in evaluating the research proposals in FP6 (years 2003-2006) in the area of Life Sciences. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Experts were analysed with respect to nationality, gender, organisational affiliation and rotation. The correlations between the number of experts by nationality and scientific research indicators were also explored. RESULT: Experts from 70 countries participated, with 70% coming from 10 countries. The gender composition was relatively stable, with approximately 30% of female experts. The majority of experts came from higher education establishments (51%) and 12% from industry. About 40% of experts participated in the evaluation process two or more times. The number of experts by nationality was linearly correlated with gross national income (r?=?0.95, p?experts for Italy (312) and Belgium (155) were higher than predicted by this regression model (231 and 71 respectively). CONCLUSION: The expert panels involved were balanced with respect to nationalities, whereas the gender distribution was lower than the target. There was a satisfactory degree of rotation of experts between evaluation rounds. The percentage of experts from industry was lower than expected. PMID:21957333

  5. Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts¿ estimates

    E-print Network

    Pechey, Rachel; Spiegelhalter, David; Marteau, Theresa M

    2013-01-09

    to economy, ultra-low price tobacco, with premium brands losing market share. The market is more driven by price than it used to be, and this would be reinforced by plain packaging. It would be difficult to invest in branding, and there would be a... to sell all tobacco products in plain packaging (i.e. without brand imagery or promo- tional text, and using standardised formatting) [5,6], while the UK government is conducting a public consultation on the possible introduction of such a policy [7...

  6. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-03-14

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  7. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  8. Effective Communication in Requirements Elicitation: A Comparison of Methodologies

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jane Coughlan; Robert D. Macredie

    2002-01-01

    The elicitation or communication of user requirements comprises an early and critical but highly error-prone stage in system development. Socially-oriented methodologies provide more support for user involvement in design than the rigidity of more traditional methods, facilitating the degree of user-designer communication and the 'capture' of requirements. A more emergent and collaborative view of requirements elicitation and communication is required

  9. Differential task effects on N400 and P600 elicited by semantic and syntactic violations.

    PubMed

    Schacht, Annekathrin; Sommer, Werner; Shmuilovich, Olga; Martíenz, Pilar Casado; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Syntactic violations in sentences elicit a P600 component in the event-related potential, which is frequently interpreted as signaling reanalysis or repair of the sentence structure. However, P600 components have been reported also for semantic and combined semantic and syntactic violations, giving rise to still other interpretations. In many of these studies, the violation might be of special significance for the task of the participants; however there is a lack of studies directly targeting task effects on the P600. Here we repeated a previously published study but using a probe verification task, focusing on individual words rather than on sentence correctness and directly compared the results with the previous ones. Although a (somewhat smaller) N400 component occurred also in the present study, we did not observe a parietal P600 component. Instead, we found a late anterior negativity. Possibly, the parietal P600 observed in sentence acceptability paradigms relates to the target value of the violations or to late sentence structure-specific processes that are more task-sensitive than the N400 and which are or not initiated in the probe verification task. In any case the present findings show a strong dependency of P600-eliciting processes from attention to the sentences context whereas the N400 eliciting processes appear relatively robust. PMID:24614675

  10. Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

    2010-01-01

    Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

  11. Social conflicts elicit an N400-like component.

    PubMed

    Huang, Yi; Kendrick, Keith M; Yu, Rongjun

    2014-12-01

    When people have different opinions, they often adjust their own attitude to match that of others, known as social conformity. How social conflicts trigger subsequent conformity remains unclear. One possibility is that a conflict with the group opinion is perceived as a violation of social information, analogous to using wrong grammar, and activates conflict monitoring and adjustment mechanisms. Using event related potential (ERP) recording combined with a face attractiveness judgment task, we investigated the neural encoding of social conflicts. We found that social conflicts elicit an N400-like negative deflection, being more negative for conflict with group opinions than no-conflict condition. The social conflict related signals also have a bi-directional profile similar to reward prediction error signals: it was more negative for under-estimation (i.e. one?s own ratings were smaller than group ratings) than over-estimation, and the larger the differences between ratings, the larger the N400 amplitude. The N400 effects were significantly diminished in the non-social condition. We conclude that social conflicts are encoded in a bidirectional fashion in the N400-like component, similar to the pattern of reward-based prediction error signals. Our findings also suggest that the N400, a well-established ERP component encoding semantic violation, might be involved in social conflict processing and social learning. PMID:25446967

  12. Bayesian area-to-point kriging using expert knowledge as informative priors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Pebesma, Edzer

    2014-08-01

    Area-to-point (ATP) kriging is a common geostatistical framework to address the problem of spatial disaggregation or downscaling from block support observations (BSO) to point support (PoS) predictions for continuous variables. This approach requires that the PoS variogram is known. Without PoS observations, the parameters of the PoS variogram cannot be deterministically estimated from BSO, and as a result, the PoS variogram parameters are uncertain. In this research, we used Bayesian ATP conditional simulation to estimate the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge and BSO, and quantify uncertainty of the PoS variogram parameters and disaggregation outcomes. We first clarified that the nugget parameter of the PoS variogram cannot be estimated from only BSO. Next, we used statistical expert elicitation techniques to elicit the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge. These were used as informative priors in a Bayesian inference of the PoS variogram from BSO and implemented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. ATP conditional simulation was done to obtain stochastic simulations at point support. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) atmospheric temperature profile data were used in an illustrative example. The outcomes from the Bayesian ATP inference for the Matérn variogram model parameters confirmed that the posterior distribution of the nugget parameter was effectively the same as its prior distribution; for the other parameters, the uncertainty was substantially decreased when BSO were introduced to the Bayesian ATP estimator. This confirmed that expert knowledge brought new information to infer the nugget effect at PoS while BSO only brought new information to infer the other parameters. Bayesian ATP conditional simulations provided a satisfactory way to quantify parameters and model uncertainty propagation through spatial disaggregation.

  13. Development of an On-Line Expert System: Heat Rate Degradation Expert System Advisor

    E-print Network

    Sopocy, D. M.; Henry, R. E.; Gehl, S.; Divakaruni, S. M.

    performance monitoring systems, which presents a variety of design challenges. Several significant features of this expert system are discussed in this paper, including the use of a Project Application Specification, design of a modular expert system...

  14. Danger and disease: electrocortical responses to threat- and disgust-eliciting images.

    PubMed

    Wheaton, Michael G; Holman, Alexis; Rabinak, Christine A; Macnamara, Annmarie; Proudfit, Greg Hajcak; Phan, K Luan

    2013-11-01

    Previous research suggests facilitated processing of evolutionarily significant stimuli (e.g., depictions of erotica, mutilation, threat), as reflected by augmented event-related potentials (ERPs), including the early posterior negativity (EPN) and late positive potential (LPP). Evolutionary models suggest that images that evoke disgust should be high in motivational salience, but evidence that the EPN and LPP are enhanced by disgusting images is lacking. Prior studies have employed only a small number of disgusting images that were limited in the types of content depicted. In the current study, participants viewed larger sets of disgusting, threatening, and neutral images with more varied content while electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded. Results showed that disgusting and threatening images elicited equivalent LPPs, which were both significantly increased relative to LPPs elicited by neutral images. EPN amplitudes were augmented for both disgusting and threatening relative to neutral images, though significantly more for disgust. These findings offer initial evidence that the EPN and the LPP are sensitive to disgust-eliciting pictures and that these pictures may receive processing that is at least on par with that of threatening images. Limitations of the current study and implications for future research are discussed. PMID:23938878

  15. Evidence for the involvement of intracellular Ca(2+) ions in the elicitation mechanism of Bacillus licheniformis.

    PubMed

    Reffatti, Patricia Fernanda; Roy, Ipsita; Odell, Mark; Keshavarz, Tajalli

    2013-01-01

    Treatment of Bacillus licheniformis cultures with biotic oligosaccharide elicitors is known to increase the production of the antibiotic bacitracin A. The mechanism of the elicitation is currently under investigation and in this paper we provide evidence on the modulatory role of Ca(2+) ions during this process. Addition of elicitors, mannan oligosaccharides, oligoguluronate and oligomannuronate to the liquid cultures resulted in 9.0, 5.2 and 5.0% increase in cytosolic Ca(2+) levels in B. licheniformis, while the presence of verapamil (Ca(2+) channel blocker) resulted in 74% decrease in bacitracin A levels, as compared to the control culture. We propose that Ca(2+) ions may acts as a secondary messenger in the regulation of the bacitracin A synthesis in the elicited B. licheniformis cultures. PMID:23921837

  16. Computer Support of Placement Planning: The Use of Expert Systems in Child Welfare.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schuerman, John R.; Vogel, Lynn Harold

    1986-01-01

    Explores the potential usefulness of computers for social service practitioners in child welfare, using the "expert systems" model to support the placement planning process. Presents the structure of one experimental consulting program (PLACECON) for child welfare workers. (Author/HOD)

  17. Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gomez, Fernando

    1989-01-01

    It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

  18. Ask-an-Expert Services Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Janes, Joseph; Hill, Chrystie; Rolfe, Alex

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the history and emergence of non-library commercial and non-commercial information services on the World Wide Web, often referred to as expert services. Describes the methodology used for a study of expert services and considers implications for further research and the development of digital reference services by libraries. (Author/LRW)

  19. Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Katy

    2004-01-01

    Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

  20. Expert system for analyzing eddy current measurements

    DOEpatents

    Levy, Arthur J. (Schenectady, NY); Oppenlander, Jane E. (Scotia, NY); Brudnoy, David M. (Albany, NY); Englund, James M. (Clifton Park, NY); Loomis, Kent C. (Clifton Park, NY)

    1994-01-01

    A method and apparatus (called DODGER) analyzes eddy current data for heat exchanger tubes or any other metallic object. DODGER uses an expert system to analyze eddy current data by reasoning with uncertainty and pattern recognition. The expert system permits DODGER to analyze eddy current data intelligently, and obviate operator uncertainty by analyzing the data in a uniform and consistent manner.

  1. Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illovsky, Michael E.

    1994-01-01

    Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

  2. Expert Holistic Nurses’ Advice to Nursing Students

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Glenda Christiaens; Jo Ann Abegglen; Andrea Gardner

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purposes of this study were to describe the advice that expert holistic nurses gave to nursing students regarding the theory and practice of holistic nursing and to describe nursing students’ experience and perceptions of their interaction with the experts. Design: This was a qualitative descriptive study. Methods: Nursing students who attended the 2008 and 2009 conferences of the

  3. BDES: A bridge design expert system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mrinmay Biswas; James G. Welch

    1987-01-01

    The expert system described here designs superstructures for small to medium span highway bridges. The system addresses a domain within the engineering design consultation paradigm. It is installed in a personal microcomputer environment. This paper examines the nature of the bridge design domain as practiced in the United States and its suitability for expert system application. The architecture, the context

  4. Farm Parents' Attitudes Towards Farm Safety Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neufeld, Steven J.; Cinnamon, Jennifer L.

    2004-01-01

    Using both qualitative and quantitative data, this article analyzes farm parent's attitudes towards the trustworthiness, usefulness, and use of advice from farm safety experts. The article evaluates four different perspectives on trust in expert: the Validity of Knowledge perspective, the Salient Values Similarity perspective, the Diffusion of…

  5. Expert system applications in spacecraft subsystem controllers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marshall, Paul F.

    1987-01-01

    As NASA progresses into the development phase of the space station, it recognizes the importance and potential payback of high autonomous spacecraft subsystems. Priorities are presented for embedded expert system enhancements to the automatic control systems of the space station thermal, EVA, and life support systems. The primary emphasis is on top level application areas and development concerns for expert systems.

  6. Expert Performance: Its Structure and Acquisition

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. Anders Ericsson; Neil Charness

    1994-01-01

    Counter to the common belief that expert performance reflects innate abilities and capacities, recent research in different domains of expertise has shown that expert performance is predominantly mediated by acquired complex skills and physiological adaptations. For elite performers, supervised practice starts at very young ages and is maintained at high daily levels for more than a decade. The effects of

  7. CLIPS: An expert system building tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is an expert system building tool, which provides a complete environment for the development and delivery of rule and/or object based expert systems. CLIPS was specifically designed to provide a low cost option for developing and deploying expert system applications across a wide range of hardware platforms. The commercial potential of CLIPS is vast. Currently, CLIPS is being used by over 3,300 individuals throughout the public and private sector. Because the CLIPS source code is readily available, numerous groups have used CLIPS as a basis for their own expert system tools. To date, three commercially available tools have been derived from CLIPS. In general, the development of CLIPS has helped to improve the ability to deliver expert system technology throughout the public and private sectors for a wide range of applications and diverse computing environments.

  8. Multiple strategies of reasoning for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Yao Yuchuan; Kulikowski, C.A.

    1983-01-01

    In expert systems the heuristics used for combining the weight of evidence can be based on probabilistic, fuzzy set, or subjective confidence factors. Although the underlying assumptions for each of the methods differ, it can be shown that there are correspondences between them and that it is possible to develop a model of expert reasoning for medical consultation using any one of the methods. The authors have developed a system for representing expert knowledge, called ESMES, which is an outgrowth of the expert scheme developed earlier at Rutgers. ESMES allows the use of alternative strategies in the solution of a consultation problem. The authors report on the performance of ESMES for a prototype glaucoma consultation model, using reasoning mechanisms similar to those of the expert, MYCIN, Internist I, and Prospector systems. 9 references.

  9. Analysis of Experts’ Quantitative Assessment of Adolescent Basketball Players and the Role of Anthropometric and Physiological Attributes

    PubMed Central

    Štrumbelj, Erik; Er?ulj, Frane

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we investigated two questions: (1) can measurements of anthropometric and physiological attributes substitute for expert assessment of adolescent basketball players, and (2) how much does the quantitative assessment of a player vary among experts? The first question is relevant to the potential simplification of the player selection process. The second question pertains directly to the validity of expert quantitative assessment. Our research was based on data from 148 U14 female and male basketball players. For each player, an array of anthropometric and physiological attributes was recorded, including body height, body mass, BMI, and several motor skill tests. Furthermore, each player’s current ability and potential ability were quantitatively evaluated by two different experts from a group of seven experts. Analysis of the recorded data showed that the anthropometric and physiological attributes explained between 15% and 40% of the variance in experts’ scores. The primary predictive attributes were speed and agility (for predicting current ability) and body height and growth potential (for predicting potential ability). We concluded that these attributes were not sufficiently informative to act as a substitute for expert assessment of the players’ current or potential ability. There is substantial variability in different experts’ scores of the same player’s ability. However, the differences between experts are mostly in scale, and the relationships between experts’ scores are monotonic. That is, different experts rank players on ability very similarly, but their scores are not well calibrated. PMID:25414759

  10. Knowledge-based expert system for fouling assessment of industrial heat exchangers

    Microsoft Academic Search

    N. H. Afgan; M. G. Carvalho

    1996-01-01

    The paper emphasises the need for the development of the expert system as a tool for the mitigation of the fouling processes. Particular reference is given to the design margin lifetime assessment, fouling process control, fouling removal assessment and heat-exchanger safety by the expert system for industrial heat exchangers.This paper presents the concept of a heat-exchanger on-line system. The heat-exchanger

  11. Perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport: some considerations when applying the expert performance approach.

    PubMed

    Williams, A Mark; Ericsson, K Anders

    2005-06-01

    The number of researchers studying perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport is increasing. The intention in this paper is to review the currently accepted framework for studying expert performance and to consider implications for undertaking research work in the area of perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport. The expert performance approach presents a descriptive and inductive approach for the systematic study of expert performance. The nature of expert performance is initially captured in the laboratory using representative tasks that identify reliably superior performance. Process-tracing measures are employed to determine the mechanisms that mediate expert performance on the task. Finally, the specific types of activities that lead to the acquisition and development of these mediating mechanisms are identified. General principles and mechanisms may be discovered and then validated by more traditional experimental designs. The relevance of this approach to the study of perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport is discussed and suggestions for future work highlighted. PMID:16095739

  12. Satellite operations support expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    The Satellite Operations Support Expert System is an effort to identify aspects of satellite ground support activity which could profitably be automated with artificial intelligence (AI) and to develop a feasibility demonstration for the automation of one such area. The hydrazine propulsion subsystems (HPS) of the International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) and the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUS) were used as applications domains. A demonstration fault handling system was built. The system was written in Franz Lisp and is currently hosted on a VAX 11/750-11/780 family machine. The system allows the user to select which HPS (either from ISEE or IUE) is used. Then the user chooses the fault desired for the run. The demonstration system generates telemetry corresponding to the particular fault. The completely separate fault handling module then uses this telemetry to determine what and where the fault is and how to work around it. Graphics are used to depict the structure of the HPS, and the telemetry values displayed on the screen are continually updated. The capabilities of this system and its development cycle are described.

  13. AbstFinder, a prototype abstraction finder for natural language text for use in requirements elicitation: design, methodology, and evaluation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Leah Goldin; Daniel M. Berry

    1994-01-01

    In order to help solve the problems of requirements elicitation, this paper motivates and describes a new approach, based on traditional signal processing methods, for finding abstractions in natural language text. The design of AbstFinder, an implementation of the approach, and the evaluation of its effectiveness on an industrial-strength example are described

  14. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Franklin Dexter; Ruth E Wachtel; Richard H Epstein

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities,

  15. How to Elicit Many Probabilities L.C. van der Gaag, S. Renooij,

    E-print Network

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    that the elicitation of all probabilities required is not an easy task. In fact, the elicitation of probabilities on the elicitation of the probabilities required for the diagram's quantitative part. As in many problem domainsHow to Elicit Many Probabilities L.C. van der Gaag, S. Renooij, Department of Computer Science

  16. Family Stories: Eliciting Tolerance and Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dukes, Melanie Anne Dillett

    2009-01-01

    The past and present provide an important reference to understanding the circumstances and cultural differences that assist in the development of our methods of interaction. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to provide a process of personal self-reflection of experiences by which administrators, school officials, staff, and faculty can…

  17. Assessing the Reliability and Validity of Expert Interviews

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Han Dorussen; Hartmut Lenz; Spyros Blavoukos

    2005-01-01

    Testing the reliability of experts should be a key element of expert interviews. Using the Condorcet Jury Theorem, it is shown that expert reliability can provide an indication of the validity of expert-opinion data. The theoretical framework is applied to expert-interview data collected in the Domestic Structures and European Integration (DOSEI) project. Special attention is paid to the role of

  18. A parallel strategy for implementing real-time expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ilyes, Laszlo A.; Villaseca, F. Eugenio; Delaat, John

    1994-01-01

    As evidenced by current literature, there appears to be a continued interest in the study of real-time expert systems. It is generally recognized that speed of execution is only one consideration when designing an effective real-time expert system. Some other features one must consider are the expert system's ability to perform temporal reasoning, handle interrupts, prioritize data, contend with data uncertainty, and perform context focusing as dictated by the incoming data to the expert system. This paper presents a strategy for implementing a real time expert system on the iPSC/860 hypercube parallel computer using CLIPS. The strategy takes into consideration not only the execution time of the software, but also those features which define a true real-time expert system. The methodology is then demonstrated using a practical implementation of an expert system which performs diagnostics on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). This particular implementation uses an eight node hypercube to process ten sensor measurements in order to simultaneously diagnose five different failure modes within the SSME. The main program is written in ANSI C and embeds CLIPS to better facilitate and debug the rule based expert system.

  19. An ‘expert labor’ approach to business service change

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peter Wood

    1996-01-01

    Presents results from a recent study of the use of business service consultancies by major UK companies in managing strategic\\u000a change. This use is examined in relation to all the sources of skilled management labor available to these companies. The\\u000a focal processes supporting business service development are interaction and competition between the ‘expert labor’ they offer\\u000a and that available from

  20. Serial Combination of Multiple Experts: A Unified Evaluation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ahmad Fuad Rezaur Rahman; Michael C. Fairhurst

    1999-01-01

    :   Multiple expert decision combination has received much attention in recent years. This is a multi-disciplinary branch of\\u000a pattern recognition which has extensive applications in numerous fields including robotic vision, artificial intelligence,\\u000a document processing, office automation, human-computer interfaces, data acquisition, storage and retrieval, etc. In recent\\u000a years, this application area has been extended to forensic science, including the identification of