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Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  2. Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science.

    PubMed

    Martin, Tara G; Burgman, Mark A; Fidler, Fiona; Kuhnert, Petra M; Low-Choy, Samantha; McBride, Marissa; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-02-01

    Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge. PMID:22280323

  3. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... structured format. The goal of ExpertNet is to enable government officials to search for and communicate with... Government Initiative and GSA and located at http://expertnet.wikispaces.com (the ``Wiki''). In addition...://expertnet.wikispaces.com or received via e-mail by January 7, 2011. Comments submitted in response to...

  4. Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: A practical guide

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M. )

    1990-01-01

    In this book we describe how to elicit and analyze expert judgment. Expert judgment is defined here to include both the experts' answers to technical questions and their mental processes in reaching an answer. It refers specifically to data that are obtained in a deliberate, structured manner that makes use of the body of research on human cognition and communication. Our aim is to provide a guide for lay persons in expert judgment. These persons may be from physical and engineering sciences, mathematics and statistics, business, or the military. We provide background on the uses of expert judgment and on the processes by which humans solve problems, including those that lead to bias. Detailed guidance is offered on how to elicit expert judgment ranging from selecting the questions to be posed of the experts to selecting and motivating the experts to setting up for and conducting the elicitation. Analysis procedures are introduced and guidance is given on how to understand the data base structure, detect bias and correlation, form models, and aggregate the expert judgments.

  5. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  6. Eliciting spatial statistics from geological experts using genetic algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-07-01

    A new method to obtain the statistics of a geostatistical model is introduced. The method elicits the statistical information from a geological expert directly, by iteratively updating a population of vectors of statistics, based on the expert's subjective opinion of the corresponding geological simulations. Thus, it does not require the expert to have knowledge of the mathematical and statistical details of the model. The process uses a genetic algorithm to generate new vectors. We demonstrate the methodology for a particular geostatistical model used to model rock pore-space, which simulates the spatial distribution of matrix and pores over a 2-D grid, using multipoint statistics specified by conditional probabilities. Experts were asked to use the algorithm to estimate the statistics of a given target pore-space image with known statistics; thus, their numerical rates of convergence could be calculated. Convergence was measured for all experts, showing that the algorithm can be used to find appropriate probabilities given the expert's subjective input. However, considerable and apparently irreducible residual misfit was found between the true statistics and the estimates of statistics obtained by the experts, with the root-mean-square error on the conditional probabilities typically >0.1. This is interpreted as the limit of the experts' abilities to distinguish between realizations of different spatial statistics using the algorithm. More accurate discrimination is therefore likely to require complementary elicitation techniques or sources of information independent of expert opinion.

  7. Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

    PubMed

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C; Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty. PMID:26610972

  8. Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Gosling, John Paul

    2013-02-01

    The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts' knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.

  9. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert

  10. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  11. Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Westphal, Margit; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Krewski, Daniel; Cashman, Neil

    2016-01-01

    A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available. PMID:27556566

  12. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  13. Use of expert judgment elicitation to estimate seismic vulnerability of selected building types

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.S.; Aspinall, W.; Perkins, D.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.A.

    2012-01-01

    Pooling engineering input on earthquake building vulnerability through an expert judgment elicitation process requires careful deliberation. This article provides an overview of expert judgment procedures including the Delphi approach and the Cooke performance-based method to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a building category.

  14. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite

  15. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  16. PROBES: a framework for probability elicitation from experts.

    PubMed Central

    Lau, A. H.; Leong, T. Y.

    1999-01-01

    A decision analytic model represents uncertainties as probability distributions. These distributions are hard to assess especially for large and dynamic models. We propose an integrated framework that facilitates elicitation of the relevant probability distributions for dynamic decision models from the domain experts. The experts usually use some judgmental heuristics to aid probability assessments; the resulting distributions may be proned to cognitive biases. Our framework aims to minimize the effects of these biases and to improve the quality of decisions made. We have implemented a prototype system of the framework and evaluated its effectiveness via a case study in the follow-up management of colorectal cancer patients after curative surgery. Preliminary results demonstrate the practical promise of the framework. Images Figure 4 PMID:10566369

  17. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of

  18. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of

  19. Using expert elicitation to prioritize resource allocation for risk identification for nanosilver.

    PubMed

    Fauss, Emma; Gorman, Michael E; Swami, Nathan

    2009-01-01

    This article introduces a method to identify risks through expert elicitation, using silver nanotechnology as a case study. Unique features of the method include supplying experts with a list of silver nanotechnology products, and conducting the elicitation in an extended interview format that captures the experts' reasoning. The end result is a series of graphical representations of expert thinking from which high-risk scenarios and knowledge gaps can be reliably inferred. This methodology, combined with other approaches to expert elicitation, can help identify knowledge and oversight gaps, and can be used as part of an adaptive management strategy. PMID:20122116

  20. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

  1. Systematic review of expert elicitation methods as a tool for source attribution of enteric illness.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-05-01

    Expert elicitation is a useful tool to explore sources of uncertainty and to answer questions where data are expensive or difficult to collect. It has been used across a variety of disciplines and represents an important method for estimating source attribution for enteric illness. A systematic review was undertaken to explore published expert elicitation studies, identify key considerations, and to make recommendations for designing an expert elicitation in the context of enteric illness source attribution. Fifty-nine studies were reviewed. Five key themes were identified: the expert panel including composition and recruitment; the pre-elicitation material, which clarifies the research question and provides training in uncertainty and probability; the choice of elicitation tool and method (e.g., questionnaires, surveys, and interviews); research design; and analysis of elicited data. Careful consideration of these themes is critical in designing and implementing an expert elicitation in order to reduce bias and produce the best possible results. While there are various epidemiological and microbiological methods available to explore source attribution of enteric illness, expert elicitation provides an opportunity to identify gaps in our understanding and where such studies are not feasible or available, represents the only possible method for synthesizing knowledge about transmission. PMID:25826450

  2. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  3. The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Díaz Anadón, Laura; Nemet, Gregory; Verdolini, Elena

    2013-09-01

    Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts’ implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts’ cost expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but the uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts’ median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts are less confident about costs than Europeans.

  4. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases.

    PubMed

    Aspinall, W P; Cooke, R M; Havelaar, A H; Hoffmann, S; Hald, T

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts' accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  5. Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

    SciTech Connect

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

    1996-11-01

    Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE`s license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE`s experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC`s geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs.

  6. EXPERT ELICITATION OF ACROSS-TECHNOLOGY CORRELATIONS FOR REACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

    SciTech Connect

    Brent Dixon; Various

    2014-06-01

    Calculations of the uncertainty in the Levelized Cost at Equilibrium (LCAE) of generating nuclear electricity typically assume that the costs of the system component, notably reactors, are uncorrelated. Partial cancellation of independent errors thus gives rise to unrealistically small cost uncertainties for fuel cycles that incorporate multiple reactor technologies. This summary describes an expert elicitation of correlations between overnight reactor construction costs. It also defines a method for combining the elicitations into a single, consistent correlation matrix suitable for use in Monte Carlo LCAE calculations. Both the elicitation and uncertainty propagation methods are demonstrated through a pilot study where cost correlations between eight reactor technologies were elicited from experts in the US DOE Fuel Cycle Research

  7. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  8. Signal Processing Expert Code (SPEC)

    SciTech Connect

    Ames, H.S.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe a prototype expert system called SPEC which was developed to demonstrate the utility of providing an intelligent interface for users of SIG, a general purpose signal processing code. The expert system is written in NIL, runs on a VAX 11/750 and consists of a backward chaining inference engine and an English-like parser. The inference engine uses knowledge encoded as rules about the formats of SIG commands and about how to perform frequency analyses using SIG. The system demonstrated that expert system can be used to control existing codes.

  9. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  10. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  11. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  12. Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation.

    PubMed

    2016-02-01

    We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps in data and research using structured, transparent methods. Such gaps are a significant challenge for global risk modeling. Experience with the WHO FERG expert elicitation shows that it is feasible to conduct an expert elicitation at a global scale, but that challenges do arise, including: defining an informative, yet feasible geographical structure for the elicitation; defining what constitutes expertise in a global setting; structuring international, multidisciplinary expert panels; and managing demands on experts' time in the elicitation. This article was written as part of a workshop, "Methods for Research Synthesis: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach" held at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis on October 13, 2013. PMID:26857339

  13. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  14. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  15. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  16. Food-specific attribution of selected gastrointestinal illnesses: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Davidson, Valerie J; Ravel, André; Nguyen, To N; Fazil, Aamir; Ruzante, Juliana M

    2011-09-01

    The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of food-specific attribution for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar survey conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. A snowball approach was used to identify food safety experts within Canada. Survey respondents provided background information as well as self-assessments of their expertise for each pathogen and the 12 food categories. Depending on the pathogen, food source attribution estimates were based on responses from between 10 and 35 experts. For each pathogen, experts divided their estimates of total foodborne illness across 12 food categories and they provided a best estimate for each category as well as 5th and 95th percentile limits for foods considered to be vehicles. Their responses were treated as triangular probability distributions, and linear aggregation was used to combine the opinions of each group of experts for each pathogen-food source group. Across the 108 pathogen-food groups, a majority of experts agreed on 30 sources and 48 nonsources for illness. The number of food groups considered to be pathogen sources by a majority of experts varied by pathogen from a low of one food source for Vibrio spp. (seafood) and C. parvum (produce) to a high of seven food sources for Salmonella spp. Beta distributions were fitted to the aggregated opinions and were reasonable representations for most of the pathogen-food group attributions. These results will be used to quantitatively assess the burden of foodborne illness in Canada as well as to analyze the uncertainty in our estimates. PMID:21561379

  17. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-08-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community.

  18. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  19. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. PMID:16506972

  20. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops.

    PubMed

    Krayer von Krauss, Martin P; Casman, Elizabeth A; Small, Mitchell J

    2004-12-01

    One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems. PMID:15660608

  1. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

  2. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  3. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  4. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M. ); Hora, S.C. )

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs.

  5. Approach, methods and results of an individual elicitation for the volcanism expert judgment panel

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, B.M.

    1996-06-01

    Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of future magnetic disruption of the Yucca Mountain site was completed as a participating member of the volcanism export judgment panel conducted by Geomatrix Consultants for the Department of Energy. The purpose of this summary is to describe the data assumptions, methods, and results of the elicitation and to contrast this assessment with past volcanism studies conducted for the Yucca Mountain Project.

  6. Statistical weld process monitoring with expert interpretation

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, G.E.; Barnett, R.J.; Strauss, A.M.; Thompson, F.M. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    A statistical weld process monitoring system is described. Using data of voltage, current, wire feed speed, gas flow rate, travel speed, and elapsed arc time collected while welding, the welding statistical process control (SPC) tool provides weld process quality control by implementing techniques of data trending analysis, tolerance analysis, and sequential analysis. For purposes of quality control, the control limits required for acceptance are specified in the weld procedure acceptance specifications. The control charts then provide quality assurance documentation for each weld. The statistical data trending analysis performed by the SPC program is not only valuable as a quality assurance monitoring and documentation system, it is also valuable in providing diagnostic assistance in troubleshooting equipment and material problems. Possible equipment/process problems are identified and matched with features of the SPC control charts. To aid in interpreting the voluminous statistical output generated by the SPC system, a large number of If-Then rules have been devised for providing computer-based expert advice for pinpointing problems based on out-of-limit variations of the control charts. The paper describes the SPC monitoring tool and the rule-based expert interpreter that has been developed for relating control chart trends to equipment/process problems.

  7. The NASA personnel security processing expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Silberberg, D.; Thomas, R.

    1996-12-31

    The NASA Personnel Security Processing Expert System is a tool that automatically determines the appropriate personnel background investigation required for a civil servant or contractor occupying a position of national security or public trust. It also instructs the personnel security processing staff to perform special checks based on a specific position. The system is implemented using a rule-based expert system and a World Wide Web interface. The system design separates the user interface, knowledge base and control structure to simplify system evolution. When one subsystem is modified, the others are impacted minimally. This system provides many benefits to the NASA Personnel Security Program. First, it frees the agency personnel security specialist from trouble-shooting and correcting all investigative problems. It also provides a learning tool for security processing staff at each installation. The system ensures that each installation security office is in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and policies. Finally, eliminating overlapping, inappropriate and duplicative efforts to process employees saves many resources. The system was deployed less than a year ago. To date, it saved $1.2 million of the $1.5 million agency-wide personnel security budget.

  8. Chlorpyrifos and neurodevelopmental effects: a literature review and expert elicitation on research and policy

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Organophosphate pesticides are widely used on food crops grown in the EU. While they have been banned from indoor use in the US for a decade due to adverse health effects, they are still the most prevalent pesticides in the EU, with Chlorpyrifos (CPF) being the most commonly applied. It has been suggested CPF affects neurodevelopment even at levels below toxicity guidelines. Younger individuals may be more susceptible than adults due to biological factors and exposure settings. Methods A literature review was undertaken to assess the evidence for CPF contributing to neurodevelopmental disorders in infants and children. Other literature was consulted in order to formulate a causal chain diagram showing the origins, uptake, and neurological effects of animal and human exposure to CPF. The causal chain diagram and a questionnaire were distributed online to scientific experts who had published in relevant areas of research. They were asked to assess their confidence levels on whether CPF does in fact contribute to adverse neurodevelopment outcomes and rate their confidence in the scientific evidence. A second questionnaire queried experts as to which kind of policy action they consider justifiable based on current knowledge. In a special workshop session at the EuroTox congress in Dresden in 2009 the results of both questionnaires were further discussed with invited experts, as a basis for a policy brief with main messages for policy makers and stakeholders. Results Most experts who responded to the first questionnaire felt that there was already enough evidence to support a ban on indoor uses of CPF in the EU. However, most felt additional research is still required in several areas. The responses from the first questionnaire were used to formulate the second questionnaire addressing the feasibility of government action. In turn, these expert participants were invited to attend a special session at the EuroTox congress in Dresden in 2009. Conclusions Some

  9. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from permafrost region soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert elicitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Jones, J.; Schuur, E. A.; Bowden, W. B.; Chapin, F. S., III; Epstein, H. E.; Flannigan, M.; Harms, T.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Mack, M. C.; Natali, S.; Rocha, A. V.; Tank, S. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Vonk, J.; Wickland, K.

    2013-12-01

    As the permafrost region warms, up to 288 Pg carbon (CO2 equivalent) may be released from soil by the end of the century, and up to 616 Pg by 2300. This soil carbon can be released to the atmosphere directly via mineralization or wildfire, or enter aquatic ecosystems as dissolved or particulate organic or inorganic carbon. Some models predict an increase in Arctic and boreal living biomass in response to extended growing season, enhanced nutrient cycling, and CO2 fertilization, but we have a poor understanding of how the production of new biomass will compare with loss of carbon from permafrost thaw. We administered surveys to permafrost region experts to assess current understanding of the magnitude and timing of biomass accumulation, hydrologic carbon flux, and wildfire carbon losses. Surveys addressed three time periods (present to 2040, 2100, and 2300) and four warming scenarios based on IPCC representative concentration pathways. Estimates of change in biomass and fire losses were provided individually for the boreal forest and arctic tundra. Experts estimated changes in carbon delivery to freshwater ecosystems as well as delivery to the ocean, including carbon release due to coastal erosion, fluxes infrequently captured in high-latitude models. Initial expert estimates indicated that while tundra biomass would increase substantially, total permafrost region biomass would decrease by the end of the century due to boreal forest drying and browning, followed by a modest increase by 2300 due to vegetation community shifts. Changes in aquatic systems could release an additional 2.7 Pg carbon by 2100 and 7.3 Pg by 2300. Modified wildfire regime could cause the release of an additional 13.6 Pg carbon by 2100 and 51.7 Pg by 2300. Current expert understanding therefore suggests that carbon gains in high-latitude biomass will be orders of magnitude smaller than carbon loss from permafrost soils and that hydrologic and wildfire pathways of carbon loss will likely

  10. Policy relevant Results from an Expert Elicitation on the Human Health Risks of Decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) and Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Aim Apply a recently developed expert elicitation procedure to evaluate the state of the current knowledge of the two brominated flame retardants (BFRs) most commonly used today; decabromo-diphenyl ether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and their potential impact on human health in order to support policy considerations. This expert elicitation was organized by the HENVINET (Health and Environment Network) Consortium. Method The HENVINET expert elicitation procedure that was used in the evaluations of decaBDE and HBCD is a rapid assessment tool aimed at highlighting areas of agreement and areas of disagreement on knowledge-related key issues for environment and health policy decision making. Results The outcome of the expert consultation on BFRs was concrete expert advice for policy makers with specific priorities for further action made clear for both stakeholders and policy makers. The experts were not in agreement whether or not the knowledge currently available on decaBDE or HBCD is sufficient to justify policy actions, but most experts considered that enough data already exists to support a ban or restriction on the use of these compounds. All experts agreed on the necessity of more research on the compounds. Priority issues for further research were, among others: • more studies on the extent of human exposure to the compounds. • more studies on the fate and concentration in the human body of the compounds. PMID:22759507

  11. ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

    PubMed

    van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

    2012-09-01

    Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time. PMID:22664671

  12. The application of expert systems to process control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Bevan P. F.

    1991-01-01

    An expert system is a computer software technology developed from artificial intelligence research. It may be used for intelligent manufacturing process control and, when properly designed, has the capability to imitate human behavior. An expert system's value is to assist a human in executing realtime process control decisions in a complex system. This article provides an introduction to the concepts of intelligent process control and includes a process control scenario applying an expert system as well as statistical and optimization technologies. A simple guide of how to get started and a description of expert system tools are also presented.

  13. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  14. EXPERT ELICITATION WHITE PAPER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA is frequently called upon to make decisions on complex environmental issues, and to make these decisions, analyses are required from a broad range of disciplines. In all of these analyses, uncertainty and variability exist in estimates of the values of key parameters and...

  15. Expert model process control of composite materials in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    An expert model for the control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using the PC PLUS expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol-crunching capability of LISP and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The Expert Model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  16. The digital storytelling process: A comparative analysis from various experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Hashiroh; Shiratuddin, Norshuhada

    2016-08-01

    Digital Storytelling (DST) is a method of delivering information to the audience. It combines narrative and digital media content infused with the multimedia elements. In order for the educators (i.e the designers) to create a compelling digital story, there are sets of processes introduced by experts. Nevertheless, the experts suggest varieties of processes to guide them; of which some are redundant. The main aim of this study is to propose a single guide process for the creation of DST. A comparative analysis is employed where ten DST models from various experts are analysed. The process can also be implemented in other multimedia materials that used the concept of DST.

  17. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  18. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  19. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  20. Expert systems for optimization of laser technology processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiorov, Vladimir S.; Sternin, M. Y.

    2002-04-01

    Many users of laser technological processes are trying to create data bases accumulating their experience in laser processing of materials. The data bases are useful tools to render help to technicians working with laser machines. But it is only the first step in utilization of intelligent computer programs. In this paper we present the results of the development of expert system (ES) to help technicians in the choice of best conditions for laser processing of materials. The ES has been created on the basis of practical knowledge of experts and experimental results collected to the data base. The set of parameters was developed for the description of laser technological processes. Each of the processes was characterized by the values of such parameters changing in some reasonable diapasons. Those parameters were divided into input and output groups. The input group of parameters included the main technical characteristics of the laser, the type of the material and the demands on the quality of laser processing products. The output group of parameters consisted of the set of laser processing conditions recommended by the expert system. Generally, the ES presents a computer model of the expert's decision making process. The steps of such a process are a new task analysis, search of closest past cases, evaluation of tasks similarity and so on. The expert system called MALS (Machine Learning Shell) is presented in this paper as an example of ES which could give consultations on the best choice of the laser cutting process.

  1. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

    1987-01-01

    The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

  2. Knowledge base for expert system process control/optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C. W.; Abrams, Frances L.

    An expert system based on the philosophy of qualitative process automation has been developed for the autonomous cure cycle development and control of the autoclave curing process. The system's knowledge base in the form of declarative rules is based on the qualitative understanding of the curing process. The knowledge base and examples of the resulting cure cycle are presented.

  3. Methods to elicit experts' beliefs over uncertain quantities: application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration.

    PubMed

    Soares, Marta O; Bojke, Laura; Dumville, Jo; Iglesias, Cynthia; Cullum, Nicky; Claxton, Karl

    2011-08-30

    We can use decision models to estimate cost effectiveness, quantify uncertainty regarding the adoption decision and provide estimates of the value of further research. In many cases, the existence of only limited data with which to populate a decision model can mean that a cost-effectiveness analysis either does not proceed or may misrepresent the degree of uncertainty associated with model inputs. An example is the case of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) used to treat severe pressure ulceration, for which the evidence base is limited and sparse. There is, however, substantial practical experience of using this treatment and its comparators. We can capture this knowledge quantitatively to inform a cost-effectiveness model by eliciting beliefs from experts. This paper describes the design and conduct of an elicitation exercise to generate estimates of multiple uncertain model inputs and validate analytical assumptions for a decision model on the use of NPWT. In designing the exercise, the primary focus was the use of elicitation to inform decision models (multistate models), where representations of uncertain beliefs need to be probabilistically coherent. This paper demonstrates that it is feasible to collect formally elicited evidence to inform decision models. PMID:21748773

  4. Formalizing expert judgment in the environmental impact assessment process

    SciTech Connect

    Lein, J.K. . Dept. of Geography)

    1993-01-01

    As the debate surrounding the adequacy of the environmental impact statement (EIS) process and its intended role in environmental decision-making continues, there is growing concern that the present guidelines used to develop the EIS may not be adequate given the methodological and theoretical advances that have been introduced in environmental impact assessment (EIA) since the last Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) revisions. This concern is particularly evident when the issues surrounding the application of expert judgment and the role it plays in impact prediction are considered. Presently, there is no standardized procedure for applying expert judgment in EIA, and although the use of expert judgment has long been acknowledged in the impact assessment literature, methodologies that draw upon expert judgment have not attempted to render those judgmental aspects of an assessment visible to decision-makers. This paper presents an approach for formalizing expert judgment using the experience gained from the development of expert systems designed to assist the EIA process. Following a critical examination of judgmental approaches to impact prediction, this paper illustrates how through the application of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy logic, substantive improvements in EIA can be made, moving the practice of impact assessment more closely into alignment with the goals expressed in Section 102(2)(a) and Section 102(2)(b) of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969.

  5. Expert elicitation as a means to attribute 28 enteric pathogens to foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, and person-to-person transmission routes in Canada.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-04-01

    Enteric illness contributes to a significant burden of illness in Canada and globally. Understanding its sources is a critical step in identifying and preventing health risks. Expert elicitation is a powerful tool, used previously, to obtain information about enteric illness source attribution where information is difficult or expensive to obtain. Thirty-one experts estimated transmission of 28 pathogens via major transmission routes (foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, person-to-person, and other) at the point of consumption. The elicitation consisted of a (snowball) recruitment phase; administration of a pre-survey to collect background information, an introductory webinar, an elicitation survey, a 1-day discussion, survey readministration, and a feedback exercise, and surveys were administered online. Experts were prompted to quantify changes in contamination at the point of entry into the kitchen versus point of consumption. Estimates were combined via triangular probability distributions, and medians and 90% credible-interval estimates were produced. Transmission was attributed primarily to food for Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Trichinella spp., all three Vibrio spp. categories explored, and Yersinia enterocolitica. Multisource pathogens (e.g., transmitted commonly through both water and food) such as Campylobacter spp., four Escherichia coli categories, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were also estimated as mostly foodborne. Water was the primary pathway for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp., and person-to-person transmission dominated for six enteric viruses and Shigella spp. Consideration of the point of attribution highlighted the importance of food handling and cross-contamination in the transmission pathway. This study provides source attribution estimates of enteric illness for Canada, considering all possible transmission routes. Further research is necessary to improve our

  6. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts

  7. Process Diagnosis Expert System Using First Principles and Functional Component

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-11-24

    PRODIAG is an expert system that performs online diagnosis of faulty components in thermal hydraulic processes. Given measurements of temperatures, pressure, flows, and liquid levels, PRODIAG identifies the possible faulty component candidates at the process level. It is a stand alone code, but can be used in conjunction with a component level program to distinguish among the possible faulty component candidates.

  8. A generic expert system for materials processing in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Kristinn; Cook, George E.; Strauss, Alvin M.

    1988-01-01

    A generic expert system is described for inspecting materials processed in space (MPS). The system may be applied, with the appropriate knowledge base, to any of the nondestructive testing methods (NDT) which are appropriate to MPS. Regardless of the method being used, the inspection process consists of three tasks: (1) signal or image processing of the NDT output and feature extraction, (2) interpretation of features in terms of MPS discontinuities, and (3) evaluation of the quality of the MPS based upon industry standards. In contrast to rule based systems, this system represents its knowledge as multidimensional vectors and appropriate functions on them. Currently, the expert system accepts manual input of observed features. Once the expert system has been tested and compared to human expert inspectors, a vision front-end will be developed to complete automation of the expert MPS inspection system, based on visual discontuities. Then the data base will be extended to include a variety of other NDT methods. In addition to functional performance, ease of use was established through menu window driven input as well as flexibility in building, using and modifying data bases for different applications.

  9. Ranking the disease burden of 14 pathogens in food sources in the United States using attribution data from outbreak investigations and expert elicitation.

    PubMed

    Batz, Michael B; Hoffmann, Sandra; Morris, J Glenn

    2012-07-01

    Understanding the relative public health impact of major microbiological hazards across the food supply is critical for a risk-based national food safety system. This study was conducted to estimate the U.S. health burden of 14 major pathogens in 12 broad categories of food and to then rank the resulting 168 pathogen-food combinations. These pathogens examined were Campylobacter, Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, Salmonella enterica, Toxoplasma gondii, and all other FoodNet pathogens. The health burden associated with each pathogen was measured using new estimates of the cost of illness and loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from acute and chronic illness and mortality. A new method for attributing illness to foods was developed that relies on both outbreak data and expert elicitation. This method assumes that empirical data are generally preferable to expert judgment; thus, outbreak data were used for attribution except where evidence suggests that these data are considered not representative of food attribution. Based on evaluation of outbreak data, expert elicitation, and published scientific literature, outbreak-based attribution estimates for Campylobacter, Toxoplasma, Cryptosporidium, and Yersinia were determined not representative; therefore, expert-based attribution were included for these four pathogens. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of attribution data assumptions on rankings. Disease burden was concentrated among a relatively small number of pathogen-food combinations. The top 10 pairs were responsible for losses of over $8 billion and 36,000 QALYs, or more than 50 % of the total across all pairs. Across all 14 pathogens, poultry, pork, produce, and complex foods were responsible for nearly 60 % of the total cost of illness and loss of QALYs. PMID:22980012

  10. Optimization of low gravity materials processing experiments using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Choudry, Amar

    1988-01-01

    The use of an expert system for the control of materials processing experiments in a facility such as the Space Station provides a number of attractive features for insuring that certain critical process parameters can be used to optimize the productivity of the materials processing experiments. The proposed approach to implementation of an expert system utilizes a knowledge base of desired process characteristics which will provide the desired results. The knowledge base for each experiment will be created in conjunction with the scientific investigator in charge of the experiment. Improvements to the knowledge base will be expanded to include self learning sessions in ground based experiments in order to teach the expert system how to respond to perturbations in the process and update the knowledge base on what process change should be implemented in order to reach the desired end product. Design considerations using an on-line real time expert system such as PICON is studied. The types of experiments evaluated include several types of solidification experiments which will be performed on the Space Station.

  11. Toward the integration of expert knowledge and instrumental data to control food processes: application to Camembert-type cheese ripening.

    PubMed

    Sicard, M; Perrot, N; Leclercq-Perlat, M-N; Baudrit, C; Corrieu, G

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the cheese ripening process remains a challenge because of its complexity. We still lack the knowledge necessary to understand the interactions that take place at different levels of scale during the process. However, information may be gathered from expert knowledge. Combining this expertise with knowledge extracted from experimental databases may allow a better understanding of the entire ripening process. The aim of this study was to elicit expert knowledge and to check its validity to assess the evolution of organoleptic quality during a dynamic food process: Camembert cheese ripening. Experiments on a pilot scale were carried out at different temperatures and relative humidities to obtain contrasting ripening kinetics. During these experiments, macroscopic evolution was evaluated from an expert's point of view and instrumental measurements were carried out to simultaneously monitor microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical kinetics. A correlation of 76% was established between the microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data and the sensory phases measured according to expert knowledge, highlighting the validity of the experts' measurements. In the future, it is hoped that this expert knowledge may be integrated into food process models to build better decision-aid systems that will make it possible to preserve organoleptic qualities by linking them to other phenomena at the microscopic level. PMID:21183011

  12. An expert systems application to space base data processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babb, Stephen M.

    1988-01-01

    The advent of space vehicles with their increased data requirements are reflected in the complexity of future telemetry systems. Space based operations with its immense operating costs will shift the burden of data processing and routine analysis from the space station to the Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A research and development project is described which addresses the real time onboard data processing tasks associated with a space based vehicle, specifically focusing on an implementation of an expert system.

  13. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  14. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  15. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  16. Neural processes distinguishing elite from expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Callan, Daniel E; Naito, Eiichi

    2014-12-01

    This commentary builds on a companion article in which Kim et al compare brain activation in elite, expert, and novice archers during a simulated target aiming task (Kim et al. 2014. Cogn Behav Neurol. 27:173-182). With the archery study as our starting point, we address 4 neural processes that may be responsible in general for elite athletes' superior performance over experts and novices: neural efficiency, cortical expansion, specialized processes, and internal models. In Kim et al's study, the elite archers' brains showed more activity in the supplementary motor area and the cerebellum than those of the novices and experts, and showed minimal widespread activity, especially in frontal areas involved with executive control. Kim et al's results are consistent with the idea of specialized neural processes that help coordinate motor planning and control. As athletes become more skilled, these processes may mediate the reduction in widespread activity in regions mapping executive control, and may produce a shift toward more automated processing. Kim et al's finding that activity in the cerebellum rose with increasing skill is consistent both with expansion of the finger representational area in the cerebellum and with internal models that simulate how archers manipulate the bow and arrow when aiming. Kim et al prepare the way for testing of neuromodulation techniques to improve athletic performance, refine highly technical job skills, and rehabilitate patients. PMID:25539037

  17. Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

  18. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  19. Prospective Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Thought Processes on a Model Eliciting Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eraslan, Ali

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical model and modeling are one of the topics that have been intensively discussed in recent years. The purpose of this study is to examine prospective elementary mathematics teachers' thought processes on a model eliciting activity and reveal difficulties or blockages in the processes. The study includes forty-five seniors taking the…

  20. Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

    A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

  1. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

  2. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  3. Differential ERP Signatures Elicited by Semantic and Syntactic Processing in Scenes

    PubMed Central

    Võ, Melissa L.-H.; Wolfe, Jeremy M.

    2016-01-01

    In sentence processing, semantic and syntactic violations elicit differential brain responses in ERP recordings: An N400 signals semantic violations, while a P600 marks inconsistent syntactic structure. Does the brain register similar distinctions in scene perception? Participants viewed “semantic inconsistencies” created by presenting objects that were incongruent with a scene's meaning and “syntactic inconsistencies” in which an object violated structural rules. We found a clear dissociation between semantic and syntactic processing: Semantic inconsistencies produced negative deflections in the N300/N400 time window, while syntactic inconsistencies elicited a late positivity resembling the P600 found for syntax manipulations in sentence processing. Interestingly, extreme syntax violations such as a floating toast, showed an initial increase in attentional deployment, but failed to produce a P600 effect. We therefore conclude that different neural populations are active during semantic and syntactic processing in scenes and that impossible object placements may be processed categorically different from syntactically inconsistent placements. PMID:23842954

  4. An expert system for processing uncorrelated satellite tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecker, Michael A.

    1992-12-01

    Through an array of ground based radar sights and optical cameras, the United States military tracks objects in near and far Earth orbit. The sensors provide epoch and ephemeris information that is used to update a database of known objects. While a majority of the sensor observations are matched to their corresponding satellites, a small percentage are beyond the capabilities of current software and cannot be correlated. These uncorrelated targets, UCT's, must be manually fitted by orbital analysts in a labor intensive process. As an alternative to this human intervention, the use of artificial intelligence techniques to augment the present computer code was explored. Specifically, an expert system for processing UCT's at the Naval Space Surveillance Command was developed. Rules were generated through traditional knowledge engineering methods and by a novel application of machine learning. The initial results are very good with the operational portions of the system matching the performance of the experts with an accuracy of 99%. Although not yet complete, the code developed in this research definitely shows the potential of using artificial intelligence to process UCT'S.

  5. Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

  6. Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paris, Cecile L.

    1993-01-01

    Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

  7. An expert system for processing sequence homology data.

    PubMed

    Sonnhammer, E L; Durbin, R

    1994-01-01

    When confronted with the task of finding homology to large numbers of sequences, database searching tools such as Blast and Fasta generate prohibitively large amounts of information. An automatic way of making most of the decisions a trained sequence analyst would make was developed by means of a rule-based expert system combined with an algorithm to avoid non-informative biased residue composition matches. The results found relevant by the system are presented in a very concise and clear way, so that the homology can be assessed with minimum effort. The expert system, HSPcrunch, was implemented to process the output to the programs in the BLAST suite. HSPcrunch embodies rules on detecting distant similarities when pairs of weak matches are consistent with a larger gapped alignment, i.e. when Blast has broken a longer gapped alignment up into smaller ungapped ones. This way, more distant similarities can be detected with no or little side-effects of more spurious matches. The rules for how small the gaps must be to be considered significant have been derived empirically. Currently a set of rules are used that operate on two different scoring levels, one for very weak matches that have very small gaps and one for medium weak matches that have slightly larger gaps. This set of rules proved to be robust for most cases and gives high fidelity separation between real homologies and spurious matches. One of the most important rules for reducing the amount of output is to limit the number of overlapping matches to the same region of the query sequence.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:7584413

  8. An expert system for processing sequence homology data

    SciTech Connect

    Sonnhammer, E.L.L.; Durbin, R.

    1994-12-31

    When confronted with the task of finding homology to large numbers of sequences, database searching tools such as Blast and Fasta generate prohibitively large amounts of information. An automatic way of making most of the decisions a trained sequence analyst would make was developed by means of a rule-based expert system combined with an algorithm to avoid non-informative biased residue composition matches. The results found relevant by the system are presented in a very concise and clear way, so that the homology can be assessed with minimum effort. The expert system, HSPcrunch, was implemented to process the output of the programs in the BLAST suite. HSPcrunch embodies rules on detecting distant similarities when pairs of weak matches are consistent with a larger gaped alignment, i.e. when Blast has broken a longer gaped alignment up into smaller ungaped ones. This way, more distant similarities can be detected with no or little side-effects of more spurious matches. The rules for how small the gaps must be to be considered significant have been derived empirically. Currently a set of rules are used that operate on two different scoring levels, one for very weak matches that have very small gaps and one for medium weak matches that have slightly larger gaps. This set of rules proved to be robust for most cases and gives high fidelity separation between real homologies and spurious matches, One of the most important rules for reducing the amount of output is to limit the number of overlapping matches to the same region of the query sequence. This way, a region with many high-scoring matches will not dominate the output and hide weaker but relevant matches to other regions. This is particularly valuable for multi-domain queries.

  9. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  10. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

  11. Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

    1991-03-01

    To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

  12. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, Θ, for which the true value, θ*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(θ) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about Θ) and d(θ), a zero-one indicator function of the observation θ*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation θ*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where Θ is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(θ). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(θ) by g(θ), the distribution that model the randomness of Θ, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(θ) to g(θ). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  13. Counter-regulating on the Internet: Threat elicits preferential processing of positive information.

    PubMed

    Greving, Hannah; Sassenberg, Kai; Fetterman, Adam

    2015-09-01

    The Internet is a central source of information. It is increasingly used for information search in self-relevant domains (e.g., health). Self-relevant topics are also associated with specific emotions and motivational states. For example, individuals may fear serious illness and feel threatened. Thus far, the impact of threat has received little attention in Internet-based research. The current studies investigated how threat influences Internet search. Threat is known to elicit the preferential processing of positive information. The self-directed nature of Internet search should particularly provide opportunities for such processing behavior. We predicted that during Internet search, more positive information would be processed (i.e., allocated more attention to) and more positive knowledge would be acquired under threat than in a control condition. Three experiments supported this prediction: Under threat, attention is directed more to positive web pages (Study 1) and positive links (Study 2), and more positive information is acquired (Studies 1 and 3) than in a control condition. Notably, the effect on knowledge acquisition was mediated by the effect on attention allocation during an actual Internet search (Study 1). Thus, Internet search under threat leads to selective processing of positive information and dampens threatened individuals' negative affect. PMID:26098968

  14. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  15. RFID-Based Critical Path Expert System for Agility Manufacture Process Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Haifang; Xiang, Yuli

    This paper presents a critical path expert system for the agility manufacture process management based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. The paper explores that the agility manufacture processes can be visible and controllable with RFID. The critical paths or activities can be easily found out and tracked by the RFID tracing technology. And the expert system can optimize the bottle neck of the task process of the agility management with the critical path adjusting and reforming method. Finally, the paper gives a simple application example of the system to discuss how to adjust the critical paths and how to make the process more agility and flexibility with the critical path expert system. With an RFID-based critical path expert system, the agility manufacture process management will be more effective and efficient.

  16. Identification and evaluation of scientific uncertainties related to fish and aquatic resources in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon - summary and interpretation of an expert-elicitation questionnaire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of

  17. Content validation using an expert panel: assessment process for assistive technology adopted by farmers with disabilities.

    PubMed

    Mathew, S N; Field, W E; French, B F

    2011-07-01

    This article reports the use of an expert panel to perform content validation of an experimental assessment process for the safety of assistive technology (AT) adopted by farmers with disabilities. The validation process was conducted by a panel of six experts experienced in the subject matter, i.e., design, use, and assessment of AT for farmers with disabilities. The exercise included an evaluation session and two focus group sessions. The evaluation session consisted of using the assessment process under consideration by the panel to evaluate a set of nine ATs fabricated by a farmer on his farm site. The expert panel also participated in the focus group sessions conducted immediately before and after the evaluation session. The resulting data were analyzed using discursive analysis, and the results were incorporated into the final assessment process. The method and the results are presented with recommendations for the use of expert panels in research projects and validation of assessment tools. PMID:21919319

  18. Expert model for intelligent control of composite materials processing in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    1992-02-01

    An expert model for the in-process control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using Personal Consultant Plus (PC Plus) expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol crunching capability of the LISP computer language and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The expert model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. The feasibility of using models to determine the process state when sensors are not available or are malfunctioning was demonstrated. Hercules 3501-6/AS4 8-in x 8-in panels were processed in the heated-platens press, using both the standard cure cycle and the expert model control system. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  19. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  20. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  1. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices

    PubMed Central

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  2. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C.; Singer, Ralph M.

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  3. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  4. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  5. User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. Methods AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Results Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. Conclusions AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department. PMID:23289426

  6. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and

  7. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  8. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

  9. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-07-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications.

  10. Eliciting Expertise.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, William deB.

    1989-01-01

    Recommends using expert systems on personal computers in the classroom to teach international relations. Claims these systems can reach conclusions as reliable as those of a human expert. Explains that the system compels students to draw conclusions based on clarity of thought because they rely on a body of logically consistent rules. (NL)

  11. XCUT: A rule-based expert system for the automated process planning of machined parts

    SciTech Connect

    Brooks, S.L.; Hummel, K.E.; Wolf, M.L.

    1987-06-01

    Automated process planning is becoming a popular research and development topic in engineering and applied artificial intelligence. It is generally defined as the automatic planning of the manufacturing procedures for producing a part from a CAD based product definition. An automated process planning system, XCUT, is currently being developed using rule-based expert system techniques. XCUT will generate process plans for the production of machined piece-parts, given a geometric description of a part's features. The system currently is focused on operation planning for prismatic parts on multi-axis CNC milling machines. To date, moderately complex 2-1/2D prismatic parts have successfully been planned for with approximately 300 rules in the knowledge base. This paper will describe the XCUT system, system architecture, knowledge representation, plan development sequence, and issues in applying expert system technology to automated process planning. 16 refs.

  12. Applying an integrated neuro-expert system model in a real-time alarm processing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khosla, Rajiv; Dillon, Tharam S.

    1993-03-01

    In this paper we propose an integrated model which is derived from the combination of a generic neuro-expert system model, an object model, and unix operating system process (UOSP) model. This integrated model reflects the strengths of both artificial neural nets (ANNs) and expert systems (ESs). A formalism of ES object, ANN object, UOSP object, and problem domain object is used for developing a set of generic data structures and methods. These generic data structures and methods help us to build heterogeneous ES-ANN objects with uniform communication interface. The integrated model is applied in a real-time alarm processing system for a non-trivial terminal power station. It is shown how features like hierarchical/distributed ES/ANN objects, inter process communication, and fast concurrent execution help to cope with real-time system constraints like, continuity, data variability, and fast response time.

  13. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  14. Human motion tracking by temporal-spatial local gaussian process experts.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xu; Fu, Yun; Liu, Yuncai

    2011-04-01

    Human pose estimation via motion tracking systems can be considered as a regression problem within a discriminative framework. It is always a challenging task to model the mapping from observation space to state space because of the high-dimensional characteristic in the multimodal conditional distribution. In order to build the mapping, existing techniques usually involve a large set of training samples in the learning process which are limited in their capability to deal with multimodality. We propose, in this work, a novel online sparse Gaussian Process (GP) regression model to recover 3-D human motion in monocular videos. Particularly, we investigate the fact that for a given test input, its output is mainly determined by the training samples potentially residing in its local neighborhood and defined in the unified input-output space. This leads to a local mixture GP experts system composed of different local GP experts, each of which dominates a mapping behavior with the specific covariance function adapting to a local region. To handle the multimodality, we combine both temporal and spatial information therefore to obtain two categories of local experts. The temporal and spatial experts are integrated into a seamless hybrid system, which is automatically self-initialized and robust for visual tracking of nonlinear human motion. Learning and inference are extremely efficient as all the local experts are defined online within very small neighborhoods. Extensive experiments on two real-world databases, HumanEva and PEAR, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model, which significantly improve the performance of existing models. PMID:20851794

  15. Chitosan-Elicited Callose Synthesis in Soybean Cells as a Ca2+-Dependent Process 1

    PubMed Central

    Köhle, Harald; Jeblick, Wolfgang; Poten, Frauke; Blaschek, Wolfgang; Kauss, Heinrich

    1985-01-01

    A new method for the rapid and quantitative fluorometric determination of callose is described. In suspension-cultured cells of Glycine max, synthesis of callose starts within 20 minutes of treatment with chitosan and parallels over hours the accumulation of 1,3-linked glucose in the wall. Poly-l-lysine also elicits callose synthesis. The effect of chitosan is enhanced by Polymyxin B at low concentrations; this antibiotic alone at higher concentrations can also induce callose synthesis. Callose synthesis is immediately stopped when external Ca2+ is bound by ethylene glycolbis-(2-aminoethyl ether)-N,N′-tetraacetate or cation exchange beads, and partly recovers upon restoration of 15 micromolar Ca2+. Callose synthesis is observed only when membrane perturbation causing electrolyte leakage from the cells is induced by one of the above treatments. It does not appear to be due to de novo synthesis or proteolytic activation of 1,3-β-d-glucan synthase. It is concluded that this Ca2+-dependent enzyme is directly activated by the influx of Ca2+ occurring concomitantly with the leakage of cell constituents. This suggestion is also discussed in conjunction with the chitosan-induced synthesis of phytoalexin in the same cells. Images Fig. 5 PMID:16664095

  16. The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

    PubMed Central

    Castro, Alexander Garcia; Rocca-Serra, Philippe; Stevens, Robert; Taylor, Chris; Nashar, Karim; Ragan, Mark A; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

    2006-01-01

    Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process. PMID:16725019

  17. An expert system for ensuring the reliability of the technological process of cold sheet metal forming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kashapova, L. R.; Pankratov, D. L.; Utyaganov, P. P.

    2016-06-01

    In order to exclude periodic defects in the parts manufacturing obtained by cold sheet metal forming a method of automated estimation of technological process reliability was developed. The technique is based on the analysis of reliability factors: detail construction, material, mechanical and physical requirements; hardware settings, tool characteristics, etc. In the work the expert system is presented based on a statistical accumulation of the knowledge of the operator (technologist) and decisions of control algorithms.

  18. Early neuronal responses in right limbic structures mediate harmony incongruity processing in musical experts.

    PubMed

    James, Clara E; Britz, Juliane; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Hauert, Claude-Alain; Michel, Christoph M

    2008-10-01

    In western tonal music, musical phrases end with an explicit harmonic consequent which is highly expected. As such expectation is a consequence of musical background, cerebral processing of incongruities of musical grammar might be a function of expertise. We hypothesized that a subtle incongruity of standard closure should evoke a profound and rapid reaction in an expert's brain. If such a reaction is due to neuroplasticity as a consequence of musical training, it should be correlated with distinctive activations in sensory, motor and/or cognitive function related brain areas in response to the incongruent closure. Using event related potential (ERP) source imaging, we determined the temporal dynamics of neuronal activity in highly trained pianists and musical laymen in response to syntactic harmonic incongruities in expressive music, which were easily detected by the experts but not by the laymen. Our results revealed that closure incongruity evokes a selective early response in musical experts, characterized by a strong, right lateralized negative ERP component. Statistical source analysis could demonstrate putative contribution to the generation of this component in right temporal-limbic areas, encompassing hippocampal complex and amygdala, and in right insula. Its early onset (approximately 200 ms) preceded responses in frontal areas that may reflect more conscious processing. These results go beyond previous work demonstrating that musical training can change activity of sensory and motor areas during musical or audio-motor tasks, and suggest that functional plasticity in right medial-temporal structures and insula also modulates processing of subtle harmonic incongruities. PMID:18640279

  19. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  20. Studying the Accuracy of Software Process Elicitation: The User Articulated Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crabtree, Carlton A.

    2010-01-01

    Process models are often the basis for demonstrating improvement and compliance in software engineering organizations. A descriptive model is a type of process model describing the human activities in software development that actually occur. The purpose of a descriptive model is to provide a documented baseline for further process improvement…

  1. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  2. Medical Knowledge Base Acquisition: The Role of the Expert Review Process in Disease Profile Construction

    PubMed Central

    Giuse, Nunzia Bettinsoli; Bankowitz, Richard A.; Giuse, Dario A.; Parker, Ronnie C.; Miller, Randolph A.

    1989-01-01

    In order to better understand the knowledge acquisition process, we studied the changes which a newly developed “preliminary” QMR disease profile undergoes during the expert review process. Changes in the ten most recently created disease profiles from the INTERNIST-1/QMR knowledge base were analyzed. We classified the changes which occurred during knowledge base construction by the type of change and the reason for the change. Observed changes to proposed findings could be grouped according to whether a change was needed to maintain consistency with the existing knowledge base, or because of disagreement over knowledge content with the domain expert. Out of 987 total proposed findings in the ten profiles, 233 findings underwent 274 changes, approximately one change for each three proposed findings. A total of 43% of the changes were additions or deletions of findings or links compared to the preliminary disease profile, and 33% of the changes were alterations in the numerical value of the evoking strength or frequency. A total of 126 (46%) of changes were required to maintain consistency of the knowledge base, whereas the remaining 148 (54%) changes were altered based on suggestions made by the domain expert based on domain content. The type of change (consistency vs. domain knowledge) was found to correlate both with the class of finding (newly constructed vs. previously used) and with the experience of the profiler (novice vs. experienced). These differences suggest that some but not all aspects of the disease profiling process can be improved upon with experience. Since it is generally agreed that the construction of a knowledge base depends heavily upon the knowledge acquisition process, this study provides some insight into areas of investigation for others interested in the construction of automated tools to aid the process of knowledge base construction. It also provides support for the observation that knowledge base construction has at least some

  3. The NERV Methodology: Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation, Reasoning and Validation in Agile Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Domah, Darshan

    2013-01-01

    Agile software development has become very popular around the world in recent years, with methods such as Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP). Literature suggests that functionality is the primary focus in Agile processes while non-functional requirements (NFR) are either ignored or ill-defined. However, for software to be of good quality both…

  4. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of…

  5. Furin-processed antigens targeted to the secretory route elicit functional TAP1-/-CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo.

    PubMed

    Medina, Francisco; Ramos, Manuel; Iborra, Salvador; de León, Patricia; Rodríguez-Castro, Marta; Del Val, Margarita

    2009-10-01

    Most pathogen-derived peptides recognized by CD8+ CTL are produced by proteasomes and delivered to the endoplasmic reticulum by the TAP transporters associated with Ag processing. Alternative proteases also produce antigenic peptides, but their actual relevance is unclear. There is a need to quantify the contribution of these supplementary pathways in vitro and in vivo. A well-defined TAP-independent secretory route of Ag processing involves the trans-Golgi network protease furin. Quantitation of this route by using OVA constructs encoded by vaccinia viruses indicates that it provides approximately one-third of all surface complexes of peptide and MHC class I molecules. Generation of the epitope carboxyl terminus is a dramatic rate-limiting step, since bypassing it increased efficiency by at least 1000-fold. Notably, the secretory construct activated a similar percentage of Ag-specific CD8+ T cells in wild type as in TAP1-deficient mice, which allow only secretory routes but which have a 10- to 20-fold smaller CD8 compartment. Moreover, these TAP1(-/-) OVA-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes accomplished elimination of epitope-bearing cells in vivo. The results obtained with this experimental system underscore the potential of secretory pathways of MHC class I Ag presentation to elicit functional CD8+ T lymphocytes in vivo and support the hypothesis that noncytosolic processing mechanisms may compensate in vivo for the lack of proteasome participation in Ag processing in persons genetically deficient in TAP and thus contribute to pathogen control. PMID:19752221

  6. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.…

  7. Discovering the knowledge creation process of an expert group in women-friendly policy: The policy case of Seoul City.

    PubMed

    Oh, Young Sam; Nam, SungHee; Kim, Yuna

    2016-01-01

    This research explores how expert knowledge is created in the process of women-friendly policy making, based on actor network theory (ANT). To address this purpose, this study uses the "Women's Happiness in the City of Seoul" policy initiated by the local government of Seoul as one example of policy development. Research findings demonstrate that knowledge creation in expert groups followed the four stages suggested by ANT. In addition, this study found that various types of knowledge emerged from individual experts. This research elucidates the process of knowledge creation and its meanings for women-friendly policy. PMID:26684220

  8. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  9. Dispreferred adjective orders elicit brain responses associated with lexico-semantic rather than syntactic processing.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hsu-Wen; Federmeier, Kara D

    2012-09-26

    We examined how adjective ordering is used in language comprehension by crossing order preference and concreteness in phrases consisting of two adjectives and a noun. We used both more typical phrases in which the preferred order has a concrete second adjective ("exhaustive hardback encyclopedia") and those with a concrete first adjective in the preferred order ("heavy informative encyclopedia"). We found that concreteness-related modulations of the ERP waveform were likely responsible for prior reports of increased positivity to dispreferred orders (interpreted as a syntactic P600-like effect). When concreteness is controlled, instead, we found that dispreferred orders are associated with larger N400s to the second adjective and following noun. This suggests that dispreferred adjective orders impact lexico-semantic predictability and the ability to generate mental images of the referent but do not result in syntactic processing difficulties. PMID:22885290

  10. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  11. CABPRO: A rule-based expert system for process planning of assembled multiwire cables

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.; Colmer, J.S.; Miley, M.

    1987-12-01

    Process planning for the manufacture of multiwire cables is a labor-intensive activity, often based on engineering experience and rules of thumb. Rather than the traditional form of expert system programming, which follows decision trees to a preplanned answer, this activity requires the system to produce an original plan based solely on the design requirements of the cable. CABPRO is a prototype system which produces the assembly instructions of a multiwire cable with a subset of features associated with it. CABPRO has proven to produce work instructions equivalent to those chosen by process engineers for the same cables in a fraction of the time. These results show promise that the CABPRO prototype will provide a solid foundation for the production version.

  12. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 2, Code manual

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-09-01

    We recommend the reader first review Volume 1 of this document, Code Theory, before reading Volume 2. In this volume we make extensive use of terms and concepts described and defined in Volume 1 which are not redefined here to the same extent. To try to reduce the amount of redundant information, we have restricted this volume to the presentation of the expert system code and refer back to the theory described in Volume 1 when necessary. Verification and validation of the results are presented in Volume 3, Application, of this document. Volume 3 also presents the implementation of the component characteristics diagnostic approach through artificial neural networks discussed in Volume 1. We decided to present the component characteristics approach in Volume 3, as opposed to write a separate code manual for it, because the approach, although general, requires a case-by-case analysis. The purpose of this volume is to present the details of the expert system (ES) portion o the PRODIAG process diagnostic program. In addition, we present here the graphical diagnostics interface (GDI) and illustrate the combined use of the ES and GDI with a sample problem. For completeness, we provide the file names of all files, programs and major subroutines of these two systems, ES and GDI, and their corresponding location in the Reactor Analysis Division (RA) computer network and Reactor Engineering Division (RE) computer network as of 30 September 1995.

  13. NLRC5 elicits antitumor immunity by enhancing processing and presentation of tumor antigens to CD8+ T lymphocytes

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez, Galaxia M.; Bobbala, Diwakar; Serrano, Daniel; Mayhue, Marian; Champagne, Audrey; Saucier, Caroline; Steimle, Viktor; Kufer, Thomas A.; Menendez, Alfredo; Ramanathan, Sheela; Ilangumaran, Subburaj

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Cancers can escape immunesurveillance by diminishing the expression of MHC class-I molecules (MHC-I) and components of the antigen-processing machinery (APM). Developing new approaches to reverse these defects could boost the efforts to restore antitumor immunity. Recent studies have shown that the expression of MHC-I and antigen-processing molecules is transcriptionally regulated by NOD-like receptor CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5). To investigate whether NLRC5 could be used to improve tumor immunogenicity, we established stable lines of B16-F10 melanoma cells expressing NLRC5 (B16-5), the T cell co-stimulatory molecule CD80 (B16-CD80) or both (B16-5/80). Cells harboring NLRC5 constitutively expressed MHC-I and LMP2, LMP7 and TAP1 genes of the APM. The B16-5 cells efficiently presented the melanoma antigenic peptide gp10025–33 to Pmel-1 TCR transgenic CD8+ T cells and induced their proliferation. In the presence of CD80, B16-5 cells stimulated Pmel-1 cells even without the addition of gp100 peptide, indicating that NLRC5 facilitated the processing and presentation of endogenous tumor antigen. Upon subcutaneous implantation, B16-5 cells showed markedly reduced tumor growth in C57BL/6 hosts but not in immunodeficient hosts, indicating that the NLRC5-expressing tumor cells elicited antitumor immunity. Following intravenous injection, B16-5 and B16-5/80 cells formed fewer lung tumor foci compared to control cells. In mice depleted of CD8+ T cells, B16-5 cells formed large subcutaneous and lung tumors. Finally, immunization with irradiated B16-5 cells conferred protection against challenge by parental B16 cells. Collectively, our findings indicate that NLRC5 could be exploited to restore tumor immunogenicity and to stimulate protective antitumor immunity. PMID:27471621

  14. NLRC5 elicits antitumor immunity by enhancing processing and presentation of tumor antigens to CD8(+) T lymphocytes.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Galaxia M; Bobbala, Diwakar; Serrano, Daniel; Mayhue, Marian; Champagne, Audrey; Saucier, Caroline; Steimle, Viktor; Kufer, Thomas A; Menendez, Alfredo; Ramanathan, Sheela; Ilangumaran, Subburaj

    2016-06-01

    Cancers can escape immunesurveillance by diminishing the expression of MHC class-I molecules (MHC-I) and components of the antigen-processing machinery (APM). Developing new approaches to reverse these defects could boost the efforts to restore antitumor immunity. Recent studies have shown that the expression of MHC-I and antigen-processing molecules is transcriptionally regulated by NOD-like receptor CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5). To investigate whether NLRC5 could be used to improve tumor immunogenicity, we established stable lines of B16-F10 melanoma cells expressing NLRC5 (B16-5), the T cell co-stimulatory molecule CD80 (B16-CD80) or both (B16-5/80). Cells harboring NLRC5 constitutively expressed MHC-I and LMP2, LMP7 and TAP1 genes of the APM. The B16-5 cells efficiently presented the melanoma antigenic peptide gp10025-33 to Pmel-1 TCR transgenic CD8(+) T cells and induced their proliferation. In the presence of CD80, B16-5 cells stimulated Pmel-1 cells even without the addition of gp100 peptide, indicating that NLRC5 facilitated the processing and presentation of endogenous tumor antigen. Upon subcutaneous implantation, B16-5 cells showed markedly reduced tumor growth in C57BL/6 hosts but not in immunodeficient hosts, indicating that the NLRC5-expressing tumor cells elicited antitumor immunity. Following intravenous injection, B16-5 and B16-5/80 cells formed fewer lung tumor foci compared to control cells. In mice depleted of CD8(+) T cells, B16-5 cells formed large subcutaneous and lung tumors. Finally, immunization with irradiated B16-5 cells conferred protection against challenge by parental B16 cells. Collectively, our findings indicate that NLRC5 could be exploited to restore tumor immunogenicity and to stimulate protective antitumor immunity. PMID:27471621

  15. Development of an on-line expert system for integrated alarm processing in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Han Gon; Choi, Seong Soo; Kang, Ki Sig; Chang, Soon Heung

    1994-12-31

    An on-line expert system, called AFDS (Alarm Filtering and Diagnostic System), has been developed to assist operators in effectively maintaining plant safety and to enhance plant availability using advanced computer technologies for alarm processing. The AFDS is designed to perform alarm filtering and overall plantwide diagnosis when an abnormal state occurs. in addition to these functions, it carries out alarm prognosis to provide the operator with prediction-based messages and to generate high-level alarms that can be used as another diagnostic information. The system is developed on a SUN SPARC 2 workstation, and its target domain is the alarm system in the main control room of Yonggwang units 1 and 2.

  16. Methodology development of an engineering design expert system utilizing a modular knowledge-base inference process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, Steven John

    Methodology development was conducted to incorporate a modular knowledge-base representation into an expert system engineering design application. The objective for using multidisciplinary methodologies in defining a design system was to develop a system framework that would be applicable to a wide range of engineering applications. The technique of "knowledge clustering" was used to construct a general decision tree for all factual information relating to the design application. This construction combined the design process surface knowledge and specific application depth knowledge. Utilization of both levels of knowledge created a system capable of processing multiple controlling tasks including; organizing factual information relative to the cognitive levels of the design process, building finite element models for depth knowledge analysis, developing a standardized finite element code for parallel processing, and determining a best solution generated by design optimization procedures. Proof of concept for the methodology developed here is shown in the implementation of an application defining the analysis and optimization of a composite aircraft canard subjected to a general compound loading condition. This application contained a wide range of factual information and heuristic rules. The analysis tools used included a finite element (FE) processor and numerical optimizer. An advisory knowledge-base was also developed to provide a standard for conversion of serial FE code for parallel processing. All knowledge-bases developed operated as either an advisory, selection, or classification systems. Laminate properties are limited to even-numbered, quasi-isotropic ply stacking sequences. This retained full influence of the coupled in-plane and bending effects of the structures behavior. The canard is modeled as a constant thickness plate and discretized into a varying number of four or nine-noded, quadrilateral, shear-deformable plate elements. The benefit gained by

  17. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  18. Breast Implant–associated Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma: Updated Results from a Structured Expert Consultation Process

    PubMed Central

    Predmore, Zachary S.; Mattke, Soeren; van Busum, Kristin; Gidengil, Courtney A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite increased cases published on breast implant–associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL), important clinical issues remain unanswered. We conducted a second structured expert consultation process to rate statements related to the diagnosis, management, and surveillance of this disease, based on their interpretation of published evidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of 12 experts was selected based on nominations from national specialty societies, academic department heads, and recognized researchers in the United States. Results: Panelists agreed that (1) this disease should be called “BIA-ALCL”; (2) late seromas occurring >1 year after breast implantation should be evaluated via ultrasound, and if a seroma is present, the fluid should be aspirated and sent for culture, cytology, flow cytometry, and cell block to an experienced hematopathologist; (3) surgical removal of the affected implant and capsule (as completely as possible) should occur, which is sufficient to eradicate capsule-confined BIA-ALCL; (4) surveillance should consist of clinical follow-up at least every 6 months for at least 5 years and breast ultrasound yearly for at least 2 years; and (5) BIA-ALCL is generally a biologically indolent disease with a good prognosis, unless it extends beyond the capsule and/or presents as a mass. They firmly disagreed with statements that chemotherapy and radiation therapy should be given to all patients with BIA-ALCL. Conclusions: Our assessment yielded consistent results on a number of key, incompletely addressed issues regarding BIA-ALCL, but additional research is needed to support these statement ratings and enhance our understanding of the biology, treatment, and outcomes associated with this disease. PMID:25674377

  19. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques; Wei, Thomas Y. C.

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  20. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  1. SP-100 shield design automation process using expert system and heuristic search techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcille, Thomas F.; Protsik, Robert; Deane, Nelson A.; Hoover, Darryl G.

    1993-01-01

    The SP-100 shield subsystem design process has been modified to utilize the GE Corporate Reserch and Development program, ENGINEOUS (Tong 1990). ENGINEOUS is a software system that automates the use of Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) analysis programs in the engineering design process. The shield subsystem design process incorporates a nuclear subsystems design and performance code, a two-dimensional neutral particle transport code, several input processors and two general purpose neutronic output processors. Coupling these programs within ENGINEOUS provides automatic transition paths between applications, with no source code modifications. ENGINEOUS captures human design knowledge, as well as information about the specific CAE applications and stores this information in knowledge base files. The knowledge base information is used by the ENGINEOUS expert system to drive knowledge directed and knowledge supplemented search modules to find an optimum shield design for a given reactor definition, ensuring that specified constraints are satisfied. Alternate designs, not accommodated in the optimization design rules, can readily be explored through the use of a parametric study capability.

  2. Examining the Stability of Experts' Clinical Case Processing: An Experimental Manipulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Bruin, Anique B. H.; Van De Wiel, Margaretha W. J.; Rikers, Remy M. J. P.; Schmidt, Henk G.

    2005-01-01

    The present study was undertaken to examine the hypothesis that the intermediate effect in clinical case recall is partly explained by experts' lower motivation to write down "everything" they remember when asked for free recall. Medical experts and students were presented with two clinical cases, which they had to read, diagnose, and recall.…

  3. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  4. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  5. Practice Guidance for Buprenorphine for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorders: Results of an Expert Panel Process

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Carrie M.; Lindsay, Dawn; Williams, Jessica; Ayers, Amanda; Schuster, James; Cilia, Alyssa; Flaherty, Michael T.; Mandell, Todd; Gordon, Adam J.; Stein, Bradley D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although numbers of physicians credentialed to prescribe buprenorphine has increased over time, many credentialed physicians may be reluctant to treat individuals with opioid use disorders due to discomfort with prescribing buprenorphine. Though prescribing physicians are required to complete a training course, many have questions about buprenorphine and treatment guidelines have not been updated to reflect clinical experience in recent years. We report on an expert panel process to update and expand buprenorphine guidelines. Methods We identified candidate guidelines through expert opinion and a review of the literature and used a modified RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method to assess the validity of the candidate guidelines. An expert panel completed two rounds of rating, with a meeting to discuss the guidelines between the first and second rating. Results Through the rating process, expert panel members rated 90 candidate guideline statements across eight domains, including candidacy for buprenorphine treatment, dosing of buprenorphine, psychosocial counseling, and treatment of co-occurring depression and anxiety. A total of 65 guideline statements (72%) were rated as valid. Expert panel members had agreement in some areas, such as the treatment of co-occurring mental health problems, but disagreement in others, including the appropriate dosing of buprenorphine given patient complexities. Conclusions Through an expert panel process, we developed an updated and expanded set of buprenorphine treatment guidelines; this additional guidance may increase credentialed physicians’ comfort with prescribing buprenorphine to patients with opioid use disorders. Future efforts should focus on appropriate dosing guidance and ensuring that guidelines can be adapted to a variety of practice settings. PMID:25844527

  6. Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

    PubMed

    Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

    2015-07-01

    Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. PMID:25850859

  7. Architecture For The Optimization Of A Machining Process In Real Time Through Rule-Based Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrano, Rafael; González, Luis Carlos; Martín, Francisco Jesús

    2009-11-01

    Under the project SENSOR-IA which has had financial funding from the Order of Incentives to the Regional Technology Centers of the Counsil of Innovation, Science and Enterprise of Andalusia, an architecture for the optimization of a machining process in real time through rule-based expert system has been developed. The architecture consists of an acquisition system and sensor data processing engine (SATD) from an expert system (SE) rule-based which communicates with the SATD. The SE has been designed as an inference engine with an algorithm for effective action, using a modus ponens rule model of goal-oriented rules.The pilot test demonstrated that it is possible to govern in real time the machining process based on rules contained in a SE. The tests have been done with approximated rules. Future work includes an exhaustive collection of data with different tool materials and geometries in a database to extract more precise rules.

  8. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these…

  9. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  10. The Role of Inductive Expert Systems Generators in the Social Science Research Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garson, G. David

    Most of what may be construed as political science has always proceeded through induction, which depends heavily on the insight, intuition, and personal brilliance of the particular author. Another approach that is closely associated with the early induction through examples is the expert system. The outcomes of this approach are not measures of…

  11. Background and basis for a knowledge elicitation shell for lifetime predictions from stress corrosion cracking data

    SciTech Connect

    Roberge, P.R.

    1995-12-31

    An ideal expert system should closely reproduce the functions normally performed by the original source expert(s). But the complex transformations of a lifetime of industrial expertise into conveniently accessible software requires the willing and active participation of domain experts whose knowledge is rarely organized for such a transformation. The matching of logical and meticulous knowledge elicitation with memory-based judgments and expertise has often proved to be a difficult task. This paper describes an approach to construct a knowledge elicitation shell specifically adapted to the field of corrosion-related problems and expertise. The knowledge elicitation shell was structured along the lines of what has recently become the framework for the transfer of corrosion information to management and design engineers. The recent work published by Professor R.W. Staehle on the general topic of lifetime prediction and the impact of stress corrosion cracking on materials was used for this task. One obvious advantage of using an established formalism is the availability of supporting documentation and background material. The advantage of using Professor Staehle`s work in particular is the clarity of his points of view that reflect a solid career in materials science and engineering. In this paper, the environment-induced cracking of high-strength aluminum alloys is used as an example to illustrate how the elicitation shell could be activated. It is believed that, by using the elicitation shell, human experts will have to rationalize some aspects of their expertise and subsequently become able to establish new links between facts and corrosion data. The process of building tables of certainty factors during the shell operation and interaction with users is also discussed.

  12. Cross-modal symbolic processing can elicit either an N2 or a protracted N2/N400 response.

    PubMed

    Griffiths, Oren; Le Pelley, Mike E; Jack, Bradley N; Luque, David; Whitford, Thomas J

    2016-07-01

    A cross-modal symbolic paradigm was used to elicit EEG activity related to semantic incongruence. Twenty-five undergraduate students viewed pairings of visual lexical cues (e.g., DOG) with congruent (50% of trials) or incongruent (50%) auditory nonlexical stimuli (animal vocalizations; e.g., sound of a dog woofing or a cat meowing). In one condition, many different pairs of congruent/incongruent stimuli were shown, whereas in a second condition only two pairs of stimuli were repeatedly shown. A typical N400-like pattern of incongruence-related activity (including activity in the N2 time window) was evident in the condition using many stimuli, whereas the incongruence-related activity in the two-stimuli condition was confined to differential N2-like activity. A supplementary analysis excluded stimulus characteristics as the source of this differential activity between conditions. We found that a single individual performing a fixed task can demonstrate either a protracted N400-like pattern of activity or a more temporally focused N2-like pattern of activity in response to the same stimulus, which suggests that the N2 may be a precursor to the protracted N400 response. PMID:27006093

  13. Optimizing Instructional Designer--Subject Matter Expert Communication in the Design and Development of Multimedia Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keppell, Mike

    2001-01-01

    Summarizes a study which explored the development, trial, and implementation of the Content Production Process (CPP) which was designed to assist instructional designers in eliciting and conceptualizing unfamiliar content from subject matter experts. Highlights include advance organizers, schema theory, consultation practices, knowledge…

  14. Expert Systems Application In Manufacturing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Som, Pradip; Chitturi, Ramesh; Babu, A. J. G.

    1987-05-01

    Expert system, a special branch of Artificial Intelligence finds its way in the domain of manufacturing. This paper presents the basic ideas and features of the expert systems, problems in manufacturing and application of expert systems in manufacturing. As the process planning is an important phase in manufacturing, the suitability of expert systems for process planning area has been highlighted. Several expert systems, developed to solve manufacturing problems are also discussed in the paper.

  15. The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014

    PubMed Central

    Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose: One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students’ and experts’ performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. Materials and methods: This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members’ performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts’ viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don’t know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. Results: From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0

  16. Lateralization of the frontal lobe functions elicited by a cognitive bias task is a fundamental process. Lesion study.

    PubMed

    Aoyagi, Kakurou; Aihara, Masao; Goldberg, Elkhonon; Nakazawa, Shinpei

    2005-09-01

    function elicited by mCBT is fundamental and independent of language lateralization, rather than secondary to it. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that the timetable for the development of lateralized frontal lobe functions depends upon biologic factors. PMID:16122629

  17. Separable Processes Before, During, and After the N400 Elicited by Previously Inferred and New Information: Evidence from Time-Frequency Decompositions

    PubMed Central

    Steele, Vaughn R.; Bernat, Edward M.; van den Broek, Paul; Collins, Paul F.; Patrick, Christopher J.; Marsolek, Chad J.

    2012-01-01

    Successful comprehension during reading often requires inferring information not explicitly presented. This information is readily accessible when subsequently encountered, and a neural correlate of this is an attenuation of the N400 event-related potential (ERP). We used ERPs and time-frequency (TF) analysis to investigate neural correlates of processing inferred information after a causal coherence inference had been generated during text comprehension. Participants read short texts, some of which promoted inference generation. After each text, they performed lexical decisions to target words that were unrelated or inference-related to the preceding text. Consistent with previous findings, inference-related words elicited an attenuated N400 relative to unrelated words. TF analyses revealed unique contributions to the N400 from activity occurring at 1–6 Hz (theta) and 0–2 Hz (delta), supporting the view that multiple, sequential processes underlie the N400. PMID:23165117

  18. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... expert judgment elicitation comports with the level of knowledge required by the questions or issues... judgment elicitation comports with the level and variety of knowledge required by the questions or...

  19. Unconsciously elicited perceptual prior

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Raymond; Baria, Alexis T.; Flounders, Matthew W.; He, Biyu J.

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence over the past decade suggests that vision is not simply a passive, feed-forward process in which cortical areas relay progressively more abstract information to those higher up in the visual hierarchy, but rather an inferential process with top-down processes actively guiding and shaping perception. However, one major question that persists is whether such processes can be influenced by unconsciously perceived stimuli. Recent psychophysics and neuroimaging studies have revealed that while consciously perceived stimuli elicit stronger responses in higher visual and frontoparietal areas than those that fail to reach conscious awareness, the latter can still drive high-level brain and behavioral responses. We investigated whether unconscious processing of a masked natural image could facilitate subsequent conscious recognition of its degraded counterpart (a black-and-white “Mooney” image) presented many seconds later. We found that this is indeed the case, suggesting that conscious vision may be influenced by priors established by unconscious processing of a fleeting image.

  20. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  1. Becoming a Lunari or Taiyo expert: learned attention to parts drives holistic processing of faces.

    PubMed

    Chua, Kao-Wei; Richler, Jennifer J; Gauthier, Isabel

    2014-06-01

    Faces are processed holistically, but the locus of holistic processing remains unclear. We created two novel races of faces (Lunaris and Taiyos) to study how experience with face parts influences holistic processing. In Experiment 1, subjects individuated Lunaris wherein the top, bottom, or both face halves contained diagnostic information. Subjects who learned to attend to face parts exhibited no holistic processing. This suggests that individuation only leads to holistic processing when the whole face is attended. In Experiment 2, subjects individuated both Lunaris and Taiyos, with diagnostic information in complementary face halves of the two races. Holistic processing was measured with composites made of either diagnostic or nondiagnostic face parts. Holistic processing was only observed for composites made from diagnostic face parts, demonstrating that holistic processing can occur for diagnostic face parts that were never seen together. These results suggest that holistic processing is an expression of learned attention to diagnostic face parts. PMID:24588261

  2. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

  3. CABPRO: An expert system for process planning multiwire cables. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.

    1994-04-01

    CABPRO (CABle PROcessor) is a set of computer programs using Artificial Intelligence programming to automatically generate process plans and work instructions in support of the manufacture of multiwire cables. Development of these programs required selecting appropriate hardware and software tools, defining engineering process planning activities, acquiring and representing process planning knowledge, and creating a prototype system. A successful prototype was developed and demonstrated.

  4. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 1, Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.; Vitela, J.E.

    1995-09-01

    The function of the PRODIAG code is to diagnose on-line the root cause of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) system transient with trace back to the identification of the malfunctioning component using the T-H instrumentation signals exclusively. The code methodology is based on the Al techniques of automated reasoning/expert systems (ES) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The research and development objective is to develop a generic code methodology which would be plant- and T-H-system-independent. For the ES part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be implemented through input only and at that only through a Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (PID) database. For the ANN part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be through the ANN training data for normal component characteristics and the same PID database information. PRODIAG would, therefore, be generic and portable from T-H system to T-H system and from plant to plant without requiring any code-related modifications except for the PID database and the ANN training with the normal component characteristics. This would give PRODIAG the generic feature which numerical simulation plant codes such as TRAC or RELAP5 have. As the code is applied to different plants and different T-H systems, only the connectivity information, the operating conditions and the normal component characteristics are changed, and the changes are made entirely through input. Verification and validation of PRODIAG would, be T-H system independent and would be performed only ``once``.

  5. A first-principles generic methodology for representing the knowledge base of a process diagnostic expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Briggs, L.L.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we present a methodology for identifying faulty component candidates of process malfunctions through basic physical principles of conservation, functional classification of components and information from the process schematics. The basic principles of macroscopic balance of mass, momentum and energy in thermal hydraulic control volumes are applied in a novel approach to incorporate deep knowledge into the knowledge base. Additional deep knowledge is incorporated through the functional classification of process components according to their influence in disturbing the macroscopic balance equations. Information from the process schematics is applied to identify the faulty component candidates after the type of imbalance in the control volumes is matched against the functional classification of the components. Except for the information from the process schematics, this approach is completely general and independent of the process under consideration. The use of basic first-principles, which are physically correct, and the process-independent architecture of the diagnosis procedure allow for the verification and validation of the system. A prototype process diagnosis expert system is developed and a test problem is presented to identify faulty component candidates in the presence of a single failure in a hypothetical balance of plant of a liquid metal nuclear reactor plant.

  6. Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

    PubMed

    Staccini, Pascal M; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

    2002-01-01

    Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

  7. Diverse environmental stresses elicit distinct responses at the level of pre-mRNA processing in yeast.

    PubMed

    Bergkessel, Megan; Whitworth, Gregg B; Guthrie, Christine

    2011-08-01

    Gene expression in eukaryotic cells is profoundly influenced by the post-transcriptional processing of mRNAs, including the splicing of introns in the nucleus and both nuclear and cytoplasmic degradation pathways. These processes have the potential to affect both the steady-state levels and the kinetics of changes to levels of intron-containing transcripts. Here we report the use of a splicing isoform-specific microarray platform to investigate the effects of diverse stress conditions on pre-mRNA processing. Interestingly, we find that diverse stresses cause distinct patterns of changes at this level. The responses we observed are most dramatic for the RPGs and can be categorized into three major classes. The first is characterized by accumulation of RPG pre-mRNA and is seen in multiple types of amino acid starvation regimes; the magnitude of splicing inhibition correlates with the severity of the stress. The second class is characterized by a rapid decrease in both pre- and mature RPG mRNA and is seen in many stresses that inactivate the TORC1 kinase complex. These decreases depend on nuclear turnover of the intron-containing pre-RNAs. The third class is characterized by a decrease in RPG pre-mRNA, with only a modest reduction in the mature species; this response is observed in hyperosmotic and cation-toxic stresses. We show that casein kinase 2 (CK2) makes important contributions to the changes in pre-mRNA processing, particularly for the first two classes of stress responses. In total, our data suggest that complex post-transcriptional programs cooperate to fine-tune expression of intron-containing transcripts in budding yeast. PMID:21697354

  8. Combining Analytical Hierarchy Process and Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering in Search of Expert Consensus in Green Corridors Development Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

    2013-07-01

    Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts—landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers—revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

  9. Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

    PubMed

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

    2012-12-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD. PMID:23211844

  10. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  11. The effects of time pressure on chess skill: an investigation into fast and slow processes underlying expert performance.

    PubMed

    van Harreveld, Frenk; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; van der Maas, Han L J

    2007-09-01

    The ability to play chess is generally assumed to depend on two types of processes: slow processes such as search, and fast processes such as pattern recognition. It has been argued that an increase in time pressure during a game selectively hinders the ability to engage in slow processes. Here we study the effect of time pressure on expert chess performance in order to test the hypothesis that compared to weak players, strong players depend relatively heavily on fast processes. In the first study we examine the performance of players of various strengths at an online chess server, for games played under different time controls. In a second study we examine the effect of time controls on performance in world championship matches. Both studies consistently show that skill differences between players become less predictive of the game outcome as the time controls are tightened. This result indicates that slow processes are at least as important for strong players as they are for weak players. Our findings pose a challenge for current theorizing in the field of expertise and chess. PMID:17186308

  12. The DELPHI expert process of the German umbrella project AUGE as basis for recommendations to CO2 storage in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilz, Peter; Schoebel, Birgit; Liebscher, Axel

    2016-04-01

    Within the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN funding scheme for geological CO2 storage by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany 33 projects (135 subprojects) have been funded with a total budget of 58 Mio € (excluding industry funds) from 2005 to 2014. In 2012, the German parliament passed the transposition of the EU CCS Directive 2009/31/EG into the national "Carbon Dioxide Storage Law" (KSpG). Annex 1 of the KSpG provides a description of criteria for the characterization and assessment of a potential CO2 storage site. Annex 2 describes the expected monitoring system of a CO2 storage site. The criteria given in the appendices are of general nature, which reflects (1) that the CO2 storage technology is still being developed and (2) that site specific aspects needs to be considered. In 2012 an umbrella project called AUGE has been launched in order to compile and summarize the results of the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN projects to underpin the two Annexes scientifically. By integration of the individual project results AUGE aims at derive recommendations for the review and implementation of the KSpG. The recommendations shall be drafted based on a common ground of science, public authorities and industry. Therefore, the AUGE project includes a Delphi expert process as an essential part. It is realized in cooperation with the company COMPARE Consulting, Göppingen. The implementation of the Delphi-Process is organized in three steps: • After the technical preparation of a standardized questionnaire (2014/2015) it was sent to 129 experts from science, industry and public authorities in Germany. After a few weeks of consideration time, 40 persons (30 %) had decided to participate actively in this inquiry. • Following the results of the first interrogation campaign, the second survey campaign started at the end of 2015. The same list of questions was used, complemented with the results of the first inquiry campaign. The intention is reduce the variance of the

  13. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  14. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  15. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  16. Expert System Development in the Classroom: Processes and Outcomes. Technical Report 91-1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wideman, Herbert H.; Owston, Ronald D.

    This study examined cognitive processes and outcomes associated with student knowledge base development. Sixty-nine students from two grade 8 classes were randomly assigned to one of three groups: a knowledge base development (KBD) group, a problem-solving software group, and a control group. Those in the KBD group received relevant instruction…

  17. Expectations, observations, and the cognitive processes that bind them: expert assessment of examinee performance.

    PubMed

    St-Onge, Christina; Chamberland, Martine; Lévesque, Annie; Varpio, Lara

    2016-08-01

    Performance-based assessment (PBA) is a valued assessment approach in medical education, be it in a clerkship, residency, or practice context. Raters are intrinsic to PBA and the increased use of PBA has lead to an increased interest in rater cognition. Although several researchers have tackled factors that may influence the variability in rater judgment, the critical examination of rater observation of performance and the translation of that data into judgements are being investigated. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively investigate the cognitive processes of raters, and to create a framework that conceptualizes those processes when raters assess a complex performance. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 11 faculty members (nominated as excellent assessors) from a Department of Medicine to investigate how raters observe, interpret, and translate performance into judgments. The transcribed verbal protocols were analyzed using Constructivist Grounded Theory in order to develop a theoretical model of raters' assessment processes. Several themes emerged from the data and were grouped according to three macro-level themes describing how the raters balance two sources of data [(1) external sources of information and (2) internal/personal sources of information] by relying on specific cognitive processes to assess an examinee performance. The results from our study demonstrate that assessment is a difficult cognitive task that involves nuance using specific cognitive processes to weigh external and internal data against each other. Our data clearly draws attention to the constant struggle between objectivity and subjectivity that is observed in assessment as illustrated by the importance given to nuancing the examinee's observed performance. PMID:26620923

  18. An expert system supporting decision making process for sustainable groundwater use in main alluvial aquifers in Slovenia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souvent, Petra; Vižintin, Goran; Celarc, Sašo; Čenčur Curk, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    The expert decision support system for groundwater management in the shallow alluvial aquifers was developed to assist the decision makers to quantify available groundwater for a given alluvial aquifer and provide additional information about quantity of groundwater available for water rights licensing. The system links numerical groundwater flow models with the water permits and concessions databases in a complex decision support system. Six regional stand-alone groundwater models are used in the process of the assessment of groundwater quantitative status as well as for assessing availability of groundwater resources during the period of maximum water consumption and minimum groundwater recharge. Model runs have been realized in a steady state and are calibrated to a medium-low hydrological field conditions, because water quantities for all already granted as well as to-be granted water rights have to be ensured in any time for several years. The major goal of the expert decision support system is therefore to provide control mechanisms in order to verify the water rights licensing for the sustainable use of groundwater resources. The system enables that the water quantity data from water permits and concessions in conjunction with the results of numerical groundwater modeling are used in the managing process of granting new water rights to users in terms of their long-term access to groundwater (sufficient quantity of groundwater) and in relation to the water rights of other users (co-impact of groundwater pumping). Also, groundwater access must be managed in such a way that it does not cause unacceptable local impacts (pumping must not lower the water level for more than 2/3 of water body in the medium-low hydrological conditions).

  19. A Type-2 Fuzzy Image Processing Expert System for Diagnosing Brain Tumors.

    PubMed

    Zarinbal, M; Fazel Zarandi, M H; Turksen, I B; Izadi, M

    2015-10-01

    The focus of this paper is diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas in MRI scans by developing an interval Type-2 fuzzy automated tumor detection system. This system consists of three modules: working memory, knowledge base, and inference engine. An image processing method with three steps of preprocessing, segmentation and feature extraction, and approximate reasoning is used in inference engine module to enhance the quality of MRI scans, segment them into desired regions, extract the required features, and finally diagnose and differentiate Astrocytomas. However, brain tumors have different characteristics in different planes, so considering one plane of patient's MRI scan may cause inaccurate results. Therefore, in the developed system, several consecutive planes are processed. The performance of this system is evaluated using 95 MRI scans and the results show good improvement in diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas. PMID:26276018

  20. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  1. An instructional design process based on expert knowledge for teaching students how mechanisms are explained.

    PubMed

    Trujillo, Caleb M; Anderson, Trevor R; Pelaez, Nancy J

    2016-06-01

    In biology and physiology courses, students face many difficulties when learning to explain mechanisms, a topic that is demanding due to the immense complexity and abstract nature of molecular and cellular mechanisms. To overcome these difficulties, we asked the following question: how does an instructor transform their understanding of biological mechanisms and other difficult-to-learn topics so that students can comprehend them? To address this question, we first reviewed a model of the components used by biologists to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms: the MACH model, with the components of methods (M), analogies (A), context (C), and how (H). Next, instructional materials were developed and the teaching activities were piloted with a physical MACH model. Students who used the MACH model to guide their explanations of mechanisms exhibited both improvements and some new difficulties. Third, a series of design-based research cycles was applied to bring the activities with an improved physical MACH model into biology and biochemistry courses. Finally, a useful rubric was developed to address prevalent student difficulties. Here, we present, for physiology and biology instructors, the knowledge and resources for explaining molecular and cellular mechanisms in undergraduate courses with an instructional design process aimed at realizing pedagogical content knowledge for teaching. Our four-stage process could be adapted to advance instruction with a range of models in the life sciences. PMID:27231262

  2. Expert networks in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

  3. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

  4. Oil palm fresh fruit bunch ripeness classification based on rule- based expert system of ROI image processing technique results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfatni, M. S. M.; Shariff, A. R. M.; Abdullah, M. Z.; Marhaban, M. H.; Shafie, S. B.; Bamiruddin, M. D.; Saaed, O. M. B.

    2014-06-01

    There is a processing need for a fast, easy and accurate classification system for oil palm fruit ripeness. Such a system will be invaluable to farmers and plantation managers who need to sell their oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) for the mill as this will avoid disputes. In this paper,a new approach was developed under the name of expert rules-based systembased on the image processing techniques results of thethree different oil palm FFB region of interests (ROIs), namely; ROI1 (300x300 pixels), ROI2 (50x50 pixels) and ROI3 (100x100 pixels). The results show that the best rule-based ROIs for statistical colour feature extraction with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier at 94% were chosen as well as the ROIs that indicated results higher than the rule-based outcome, such as the ROIs of statistical colour feature extraction with artificial neural network (ANN) classifier at 94%, were selected for further FFB ripeness inspection system.

  5. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  6. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-05-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  7. Annotation methods to develop and evaluate an expert system based on natural language processing in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Quentin; Tvardik, Nastassia; Bouvry, Côme; Kergourlay, Ivan; Bittar, André; Segond, Frédérique; Darmoni, Stefan; Metzger, Marie-Hélène

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the SYNODOS collaborative project was to develop a generic IT solution, combining a medical terminology server, a semantic analyser and a knowledge base. The goal of the project was to generate meaningful epidemiological data for various medical domains from the textual content of French medical records. In the context of this project, we built a care pathway oriented conceptual model and corresponding annotation method to develop and evaluate an expert system's knowledge base. The annotation method is based on a semi-automatic process, using a software application (MedIndex). This application exchanges with a cross-lingual multi-termino-ontology portal. The annotator selects the most appropriate medical code proposed for the medical concept in question by the multi-termino-ontology portal and temporally labels the medical concept according to the course of the medical event. This choice of conceptual model and annotation method aims to create a generic database of facts for the secondary use of electronic health records data. PMID:26262366

  8. Development of an on-line fuzzy expert system for integrated alarm processing in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, S.S.; Kang, K.S.; Kim, H.G.; Chang, S.H.

    1995-08-01

    An on-line fuzzy expert system, called alarm filtering and diagnostic system (AFDS), was developed to provide the operator with clean alarm pictures and system-wide failure information during abnormal states through alarm filtering and diagnosis. In addition, it carries out alarm prognosis to warn the operator of process abnormalities. Clean alarm pictures that have no information overlapping are generated from multiple activated alarms at the alarm filtering stage. The meta rules for dynamic filtering were established on the basis of the alarm relationship network. In the case of alarm diagnosis, the relations between alarms and abnormal states are represented by means of fuzzy relations, and the compositional inference rule of fuzzy logic is utilized to infer abnormal states from the fuzzy relations. The AFDS offers the operator related operating procedures as well as diagnostic results. At the stage of alarm prognosis, the future values of some important critical safety parameters are predicted by means of Levinson algorithm selected from the comparative experiments, and the global trends of these parameters are estimated using data smoothing and fuzzy membership. This information enables early failure detection and is also used to supplement diagnostic symptoms.

  9. Rule based processing of the CD4000, CD3200 and CD Sapphire analyser output using the Cerner Discern Expert Module.

    PubMed

    Burgess, P; Robin, H; Langshaw, M; Kershaw, G; Pathiraja, R; Yuen, S; Coad, C; Xiros, N; Mansy, G; Coleman, R; Brown, R; Gibson, J; Holman, R; Hubbard, J; Wick, V; Lammers, M; Johnson, R; Huffman, K; Bell, J; Ibrahim, A; Estepa, F; Lovegrove, J; Joshua, D

    2009-12-01

    The latest version of our Laboratory Information System haematology laboratory expert system that handles the output of Abbott Cell-Dyn Sapphires, CD4000s and a CD3200 full blood count analyser in three high-volume haematology laboratories is described. The three hospital laboratories use Cerner Millennium Version 2007.02 software and the expert system uses Cerner Millennium Discern Expert rules and some small Cerner Command Language in-house programs. The entire expert system is totally integrated with the area-wide database and has been built and maintained by haematology staff members, as has the haematology database. Using patient demographic data, analyser numeric results, analyser error and morphology flags and previous results for the patient, this expert system decides whether to validate the main full blood count indices and white cell differential, or if the analyser results warrant further operator intervention/investigation before verifying, whether a blood film is required for microscopic review and if abnormal results require phoning to the staff treating the patient. The principles of this expert system can be generalized to different haematology analysers and haematology laboratories that have different workflows and different software. PMID:18691345

  10. Expert reports.

    PubMed

    Thornton, R G

    2000-10-01

    In 1996, article 4590i of the Texas Revised Civil Statutes Annotated, the statutory provision that governs health care liability claims in Texas, was amended to require claimants to file expert reports within 180 days as part of the prosecution of their claims. Sufficient expert reports include explanations of the standard of care, the deviation from that standard, and how the deviation caused the claimant's damages. Two provisions allow courts to grant a 30-day extension for filing expert reports. A good cause extension can be used to extend the filing deadline to 210 days; however, case law has not clearly defined what constitutes good cause. An accident or mistake grace period can be used to justify reports filed >210 days after the suit has been filed; judges determine whether the failure is due to a mistake or intentional indifference. As with any statute, the language is not as important as how the courts (judges) interpret that language. The statute may appear strict but room for interpretation exists. PMID:16389359

  11. Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

  12. Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts.

    PubMed

    Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Fidler, Fiona; McBride, Marissa; Flander, Louisa; Cumming, Geoff; Burgman, Mark

    2010-03-01

    Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3-point elicitation procedure, an expert is asked for a lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, the two limits creating an interval of some assigned confidence level (e.g., 80%). In our 4-step interval elicitation procedure, experts were also asked for a realistic lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, but no confidence level was assigned; the fourth step was to rate their anticipated confidence in the interval produced. In our three studies, experts made interval predictions of rates of infectious diseases (Study 1, n = 21 and Study 2, n = 24: epidemiologists and public health experts), or marine invertebrate populations (Study 3, n = 34: ecologists and biologists). We combined the results from our studies using meta-analysis, which found average overconfidence of 11.9%, 95% CI [3.5, 20.3] (a hit rate of 68.1% for 80% intervals)-a substantial decrease in overconfidence compared with previous studies. Studies 2 and 3 suggest that the 4-step procedure is more likely to reduce overconfidence than the 3-point procedure (Cohen's d = 0.61, [0.04, 1.18]). PMID:20030766

  13. LinkIT: a ludic elicitation game for eliciting risk perceptions.

    PubMed

    Cao, Yan; McGill, William L

    2013-06-01

    The mental models approach, a leading strategy to develop risk communications, involves a time- and labor-intensive interview process and a lengthy questionnaire to elicit group-level risk perceptions. We propose that a similarity ratings approach for structural knowledge elicitation can be adopted to assist the risk mental models approach. The LinkIT game, inspired by games with a purpose (GWAP) technology, is a ludic elicitation tool designed to elicit group understanding of the relations between risk factors in a more enjoyable and productive manner when compared to traditional approaches. That is, consistent with the idea of ludic elicitation, LinkIT was designed to make the elicitation process fun and enjoyable in the hopes of increasing participation and data quality in risk studies. Like the mental models approach, the group mental model obtained via the LinkIT game can hence be generated and represented in a form of influence diagrams. In order to examine the external validity of LinkIT, we conducted a study to compare its performance with respect to a more conventional questionnaire-driven approach. Data analysis results conclude that the two group mental models elicited from the two approaches are similar to an extent. Yet, LinkIT was more productive and enjoyable than the questionnaire. However, participants commented that the current game has some usability concerns. This presentation summarizes the design and evaluation of the LinkIT game and suggests areas for future work. PMID:23078149

  14. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  15. Experts, Dialects, and Discourse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhatt, Rakesh Mohan

    2002-01-01

    Examines "expert" discourse--complexes of signs and practices that organize and legitimize social existence and social reproduction--to demonstrate the ideological process involved in the manufacture of Standard English ideology and its continual duplication as necessitated by the three axiomatic conceptions of the English-sacred imagined…

  16. Being an Expert Mathematics Online Tutor: What Does Expertise Entail?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinovic, Dragana

    2009-01-01

    This article is derived from the qualitative portion of a larger study conducted on mathematics websites that provide expert volunteer help. Data consist of tutoring logs of five expert tutors from two help sites, plus interviews with these tutors. The researcher has employed theories about expertise in the educational domain to elicit details of…

  17. Development of a knowledge elicitation shell for materials performance evaluation in seawater systems

    SciTech Connect

    Trethewey, K.R; Phillips, S.; Roberge, P.R.

    1994-12-31

    It has been shown that people have a considerable aggravating influence on system failure by corrosion. In the 21st century, when the emphasis is expected to fall firmly on conservation of valuable resources and more economic use of energy -- issues likely to be governed by law -- KBSs will have a considerable role to play in reducing the incidence of premature failure by corrosion. Knowledge elicitation is a precursor to the construction of knowledge based systems (KBSS) but represents a serious difficulty for software developers. The complex transformation of lifetime industrial expertise into software requires the willing and active participation of domain experts, frequently unfamiliar with computers and not necessarily inclined or able to share the details of their thought processes. Whilst knowledge and experience can be shared by a group of people, expertise is uniquely tinted by the expert`s own individuality. This paper discusses the strategies for the formulation of expert knowledge applicable to each of the groups of people involved in corrosion failure. 38 refs.

  18. Text Mining and Natural Language Processing Approaches for Automatic Categorization of Lay Requests to Web-Based Expert Forums

    PubMed Central

    Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-01-01

    Background Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called “ask the doctor” services. Objective To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. Methods We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website “Rund ums Baby” (“Everything about Babies”) into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions (“subject matter” and “expectations”). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer’s V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. Results According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category “in vitro fertilization (IVF),” 81 (8%) into the category “ovulation,” 79 (8%) into “cycle,” and 57 (6%) into “semen analysis.” These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as “general information” and 351 (36%) as a wish for “treatment recommendations.” The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer’s V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other

  19. Effects of competitive pressure on expert performance: underlying psychological, physiological, and kinematic mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Andrew; Kavussanu, Maria; McIntyre, David; Boardley, Ian D; Ring, Christopher

    2011-08-01

    Although it is well established that performance is influenced by competitive pressure, our understanding of the mechanisms which underlie the pressure-performance relationship is limited. The current experiment examined mediators of the relationship between competitive pressure and motor skill performance of experts. Psychological, physiological, and kinematic responses to three levels of competitive pressure were measured in 50 expert golfers, during a golf putting task. Elevated competitive pressure increased putting accuracy, anxiety, effort, and heart rate, but decreased grip force. Quadratic effects of pressure were noted for self-reported conscious processing and impact velocity. Mediation analyses revealed that effort and heart rate partially mediated improved performance. The findings indicate that competitive pressure elicits effects on expert performance through both psychological and physiological pathways. PMID:21265862

  20. Use of expert judgment in exposure assessment. Part I. Characterization of personal exposure to benzene.

    PubMed

    Walker, K D; Evans, J S; MacIntosh, D

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the first phase of a study, conducted as an element of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS), to demonstrate the use of expert subjective judgment elicitation techniques to characterize the magnitude of and uncertainty in environmental exposure to benzene. In decisions about the value of exposure research or of regulatory controls, the characterization of uncertainty can play an influential role. Classical methods for characterizing uncertainty may be sufficient when adequate amounts of relevant data are available. Frequently, however, data are neither abundant nor directly relevant, making it necessary to rely to varying degrees on subjective judgment. Since the 1950s, methods to elicit and quantify subjective judgments have been explored but have rarely been applied to the field of environmental exposure assessment. In this phase of the project, seven experts in benzene exposure assessment were selected through a peer nomination process, participated in a 2-day workshop, and were interviewed individually to elicit their judgments about the distributions of residential ambient, residential indoor, and personal air benzene concentrations (6-day integrated average) experienced by both the non-smoking, non-occupationally exposed target and study populations of the US EPA Region V pilot study. Specifically, each expert was asked to characterize, in probabilistic form, the arithmetic means and the 90th percentiles of these distributions. This paper presents the experts' judgments about the concentrations of benzene encountered by the target population. The experts' judgments about levels of benzene in personal air were demonstrative of patterns observed in the judgments about the other distributions. They were in closest agreement about their predictions of the mean; with one exception, their best estimates of the mean fell within 7-11 microg/m(3) although they exhibited striking differences in the degree of

  1. Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-01-01

    It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

  2. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  3. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1

  4. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  5. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  6. Graph transformation expert system (GTES)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Guiquing; Ge, Qihong; Zhong, Luo; Xie, Weiping

    1996-03-01

    The design of many industrial and engineering systems can often be accomplished using flow graphs of various types. Examples include manufacturing processes and data processing applications, Graph Transformation Expert System, is an expert system which has been developed by WUT for applying techniques of artificial intelligence to the architectural design of data and signal processing systems. Software and hardware architectures may be defined for such systems using data flow graphs, in which nodes represent data processing steps and directed areas represent the `flow' of data between the processing steps. Starting with a user- defined generic processing graphic, this expert will transform the graph by applying transformation rules in order to specialize the processing graph to satisfy specified design goals and/or hardware constraints. Although the particular application for which this expert is designed is that of data and signal processing systems, it can provide an expert system framework for other problems specified graphically; for example, manufacturing systems, information systems, and product distribution systems.

  7. Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-06-01

    It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

  8. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; McCall, Kurt E.

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  9. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  10. The Development of Expert Face Processing: Are Infants Sensitive to Normal Differences in Second-Order Relational Information?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayden, Angela; Bhatt, Ramesh S.; Reed, Andrea; Corbly, Christine R.; Joseph, Jane E.

    2007-01-01

    Sensitivity to second-order relational information (i.e., spatial relations among features such as the distance between eyes) is a vital part of achieving expertise with face processing. Prior research is unclear on whether infants are sensitive to second-order differences seen in typical human populations. In the current experiments, we examined…

  11. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  12. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  13. The diagnosis of microcytic anemia by a rule-based expert system using VP-Expert.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, M L; McKinney, T

    1989-09-01

    We describe our experience in creating a rule-based expert system for the interpretation of microcytic anemia using the expert system development tool, VP-Expert, running on an IBM personal computer. VP-Expert processes data (complete blood cell count results, age, and sex) according to a set of user-written logic rules (our program) to reach conclusions as to the following causes of microcytic anemia: alpha- and beta-thalassemia trait, iron deficiency, and anemia of chronic disease. Our expert system was tested using previously interpreted complete blood cell count data. In most instances, there was good agreement between the expert system and its pathologist-author, but many discrepancies were found in the interpretation of anemia of chronic disease. We conclude that VP-Expert has a useful level of power and flexibility, yet is simple enough that individuals with modest programming experience can create their own expert systems. Limitations of such expert systems are discussed. PMID:2774865

  14. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  15. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  16. The Expert Witness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

    1975-01-01

    As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

  17. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert panel is the first step in the process... expert panel member may not be an FDA employee. (4) A qualified expert panel must have at least three... panel meets the selection criteria listed in paragraphs (b)(1) through (b)(5) of this section. (3)...

  18. Knowledge acquisition for a simple expert controller

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bieker, B.

    1987-01-01

    A method is presented for process control which has the properties of being incremental, cyclic and top-down. It is described on the basis of the development of an expert controller for a simple, but nonlinear control route. A quality comparison between expert controller and process operator shows the ability of the method for knowledge acquisition.

  19. Getting Started in Library Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borko, Harold

    1987-01-01

    Describes a microcomputer-based expert system, MAPPER, which is being developed to help catalog maps by employing the cognitive processes used by catalogers in applying Anglo American Cataloging Rules, 2nd edition (AACR2). The design process is reviewed, including the choice of a model expert system, MYCIN, and a software package, EXSYS.…

  20. Expert witness reform.

    PubMed

    Horton, J Bauer; Reece, Edward; Janis, Jeffrey E; Broughton, George; Hollier, Larry; Thornton, James F; Kenkel, Jeffrey M; Rohrich, Rod J

    2007-12-01

    The legal system depends on the medical expert for evidence. Doctors readily complain about frivolous cases that go to trial, yet a lawyer cannot bring a frivolous claim to trial without a physician expert witness stating that the claim is not frivolous. An insurance company cannot raise premiums without medical expert witnesses servicing the increasing litigation against the insured. Physicians must look to themselves as a major contributor to rising malpractice insurance costs. For without the physician expert witness, no medical malpractice lawsuit can take place. It is the expert physician, not the attorneys or insurance companies, who defines "meritless" and "frivolous" and who ultimately controls the courts' medical malpractice caseload. PMID:18090781

  1. Confessions and expert testimony.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Kenneth J

    2003-01-01

    In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice. PMID:14974801

  2. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. ); Jackson, J.R. )

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  3. Expert status and performance.

    PubMed

    Burgman, Mark A; McBride, Marissa; Ashton, Raquel; Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Flander, Louisa; Wintle, Bonnie; Fidler, Fiona; Rumpff, Libby; Twardy, Charles

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback. PMID:21829574

  4. Expert Status and Performance

    PubMed Central

    Burgman, Mark A.; McBride, Marissa; Ashton, Raquel; Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Flander, Louisa; Wintle, Bonnie; Fidler, Fiona; Rumpff, Libby; Twardy, Charles

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback. PMID:21829574

  5. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  6. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Кorchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min’kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  7. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    SciTech Connect

    Wegerich, Stephan

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component has degraded.

  8. The use of fuzzy control system methods for characterizing expert judgment uncertainty distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.E.; Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Parkinson, W.J.; Meyer, M.A.; Jamshidi, M.

    1998-12-01

    Fuzzy logic methods permit experts to assess parameters affecting performance of components/systems in natural language terms more familiar to them (e.g., high, good, etc.). Recognizing that there is a cost associated with obtaining more precise information, the authors particular interest is in cases where the relationship between the condition of the system and its performance is not well understood, especially for some sets of possible operating conditions, and where developing a better understanding is very difficult and/or expensive. The methods allow the experts to make use of the level of precision with which they understand the underlying process. The authors consider and compare various methods of formulating the process just described, with an application in reliability analysis where expert information forms a significant (if not sole) source of data for reliability analysis. The flow of information through the fuzzy-control-systems based analysis is studied using a simple, hypothetical problem which mimics the structure used to elicit expert information in Parse. They also characterize the effect of using progressively more refined information and examine the use of fuzzy-based methods as data pooling/fusion mechanisms.

  9. Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, L L; Gustafson, D H; Antognoli, M C; Remmenga, M D

    2013-04-01

    Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments. PMID:23270791

  10. Conceptual design and analysis methodology for knowledge acquisition for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Adiga, S.

    1986-01-01

    The field analysis of Artificial Intelligence, particularly expert systems, has been identified by experts as a technology with the most promise for handling complex information processing needs of modern manufacturing systems. Knowledge acquisition or the process of building the knowledge base for expert systems needs precise and well-formulated methods to pass from being an art to theory. This research in a step in that direction. The approach evolves at the conceptual level from Pask's work on conversation theory which provides the minimal structural requirement for development and validation of the method. An integrated approach is developed with guidelines for structured knowledge elicitation, analysis, and mapping of the verbal data into well-defined object-oriented generic knowledge structures capable of representing both structural and operational knowledge. The research extends and blends the concepts of protocol analysis, object-oriented design, and semantic data modeling into an integrated framework. This methodology, being a domain-independent development, theoretically can be used to acquire knowledge for any expert performance system.

  11. CONSTRUAL PROCESSES IN PREFERENCE ELICITATION. (R824706)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  12. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  13. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R; Carroll, Thomas E; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A; Unwin, Stephen D; Hossain, Shamina S

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  14. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  15. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W.; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills. PMID:25206348

  16. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  17. Using Expert Systems For Computational Tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duke, Eugene L.; Regenie, Victoria A.; Brazee, Marylouise; Brumbaugh, Randal W.

    1990-01-01

    Transformation technique enables inefficient expert systems to run in real time. Paper suggests use of knowledge compiler to transform knowledge base and inference mechanism of expert-system computer program into conventional computer program. Main benefit, faster execution and reduced processing demands. In avionic systems, transformation reduces need for special-purpose computers.

  18. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  19. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  20. Ethical Expert Systems

    PubMed Central

    Victoroff, Michael S.

    1985-01-01

    The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

  1. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  2. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-11-08

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - `expert elicitation.` This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal.

  3. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ``team`` of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.

  4. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.

  5. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  6. Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sary, Charisse; Gilstrap, Lewey; Hull, Larry G.

    1990-01-01

    The Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM) provides an approach to developing expert system software. Because of the uncertainty associated with this process, an element of risk is involved. ESDM is designed to address the issue of risk and to acquire the information needed for this purpose in an evolutionary manner. ESDM presents a life cycle in which a prototype evolves through five stages of development. Each stage consists of five steps, leading to a prototype for that stage. Development may proceed to a conventional development methodology (CDM) at any time if enough has been learned about the problem to write requirements. ESDM produces requirements so that a product may be built with a CDM. ESDM is considered preliminary because is has not yet been applied to actual projects. It has been retrospectively evaluated by comparing the methods used in two ongoing expert system development projects that did not explicitly choose to use this methodology but which provided useful insights into actual expert system development practices and problems.

  7. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  8. Benchmarking expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1988-01-01

    As part of its evaluation of new technologies, the Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis Div. at NASA-Johnson has made timing tests of several expert system building tools. Among the production systems tested were Automated Reasoning Tool, several versions of OPS5, and CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System), an expert system builder developed by the AI section. Also included in the test were a Zetalisp version of the benchmark along with four versions of the benchmark written in Knowledge Engineering Environment, an object oriented, frame based expert system tool. The benchmarks used for testing are studied.

  9. Towards reasoning visualization in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1989-01-01

    Preliminary results are presented of ongoing research to develop visualization paradigms for expert systems reasoning processes. The results are based in part on a prototype implementation that is being developed to visualize the reasoning processes of a rule-based forward chaining expert system. The research is based on the premise that the presentation of information at the highest applicable conceptual level will enhance the assimilation of that information. Hierarchical levels in both the syntactic and semantic levels of reasoning in expert systems are described in detail.

  10. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  11. Safety organizations and experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandel, G.; Rubinstein, R. I.; Pinto, J. J.; Meschkow, S. Z.

    1977-01-01

    Handbook lists organizations and experts in specific, well defined areas of safety technology. Special emphasis is given to relevant safety information sources on aircraft fire hazards and aircraft interior flammability.

  12. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  13. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  14. Transferring Knowledge: A Parallel between Teaching Chemical Engineering and Developing Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberge, P. R.

    1990-01-01

    Discussed are expert systems development and teaching, the representation and processing of knowledge, knowledge representation in chemical engineering, and expert systems in chemical engineering. The seven phases of expert system development are illustrated. (CW)

  15. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    PubMed

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research. PMID:17621416

  16. Antitumor immune reaction elicited by photodynamic therapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korbelik, Mladen

    1999-06-01

    This work examines why photodynamic therapy (PDT) is capable of eliciting a strong immune reaction against treated solid tumors. It is postulated that this phenomenon originates from the basic charter of the insult inflicted by the photodynamic treatment, which is dominated by singlet oxygen-mediated oxidative stress. The early event associated with this initial impact, which is of major relevance for the development of immune response, is the generation of photo-oxidative lesions responsible for the activation of cellular signal transduction pathways and consequent induction of stress proteins. Importantly, these lesions, as well as other types of PDT mediated oxidative injury, have a strong pro-inflammatory character. It is suggested that the antitumor immune response is primed and propagated by the PDT-induced inflammatory process. Of critical importance for the immune recognition of treated tumor is the generation of large amounts of cancer cell debris that occurs rapidly following PDT treatment.

  17. Augmenting Usability: Cultural Elicitation in HCI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camara, Souleymane Boundaouda; Oyugi, Cecilia; Abdelnour-Nocera, José; Smith, Andy

    This paper offers context and culture elicitation in an inter-cultural and multi-disciplinary setting of ICT design. Localised usability evaluation (LUE) is augmented with a socio-technical evaluation tool (STEM) as a methodological approach to expose and address issues in a collaborative ICT design within the Village e-Science for Life (VeSeL) project in rural Kenya. The paper argues that designers need to locally identify context and culture in situ and further explicate their implications through the design process and at the global level. Stakeholders' context, culture, decisions, agendas, expectations, disciplines and requirements need to be locally identified and globally evaluated to ensure a fit for purpose solution.

  18. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

  19. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through…

  20. Endotoxin elicits ambivalent social behaviors.

    PubMed

    Yee, Jason R; Prendergast, Brian J

    2012-07-01

    The acute phase response to infection is reliably accompanied by decreases in social investigation; however, social behavior is commonly assayed in inescapable environments using unfamiliar social stimuli. In this experiment, male Wistar rats were raised from weaning with 2 familiar, same-sex conspecifics. In adulthood, rats were implanted with radiotelemetry devices that permitted localization in space, and were challenged with LPS treatments (150 μg/kg, i.p.) in a novel, semi-natural arena which afforded the treated (Focal) animal exclusive control of social exposure, and the ability to avoid social interactions. LPS reliably elicited thermoregulatory responses (transient hypothermia and fever) during the scotophase following injection, but did not yield changes in the proportion of time spent engaged in social interactions: both LPS- and saline-treated rats spent approximately 10% of the night with their familiar cagemates. Injection treatments markedly altered the spatial distribution of activity: LPS-treated rats exhibited significant increases in the amount of time spent as far as possible from their cagemates. The data suggest that sickness responses to LPS may give rise to a transient state of social ambivalence-characterized by a persistent motivation to engage in social contact, but also by increased avoidance of social environments. Selective maintenance of social motivation illustrates plasticity in the expression of sickness behaviors and may be adaptive in social species. PMID:22172640

  1. Avionic expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golshani, Forouzan

    1988-01-01

    At the heart of any intelligent flight control system, there is a knowledge based expert system. The efficiency of these knowledge bases is one of the major factors in the success of aviation and space control systems. In the future, the speed and the capabilities of the expert system and their underlying data base(s) will be the limiting factors in the ability to build more accurate real time space controllers. A methodology is proposed for design and construction of such expert systems. It is noted that existing expert systems are inefficient (slow) in dealing with nontrivial real world situations that involve a vast collection of data. However, current data bases, which are fast in handling large amounts of data, cannot carry out intelligent tasks normally expected from an expert system. The system presented provides the power of deduction (reasoning) along with the efficient mechanisms for management of large data bases. In the system, both straight forward evaluation procedures and sophisticated inference mechanisms coexist. The design methodology is based on mathematics and logic, which ensures the correctness of the final product.

  2. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  3. Expert systems for Space Station automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Georgeff, M. P.; Firschein, O.

    1985-01-01

    The expert systems required for automating key functions of the Manned Space Station (MSS) are explored. It is necessary that the expert systems developed be flexible, degrade gracefully in the case of a failure, and be able to work with incomplete data. The AI systems will have to perform interpretation and diagnosis, design, prediction and induction, and monitoring and control functions. Both quantitative and qualitative reasoning capabilities need improvements, as do automatic verification techniques, explanation and learning capabilities, and the use of metaknowledge, i. e., knowledge about the knowledge contained in the knowledge base. Information retrieval, fault isolation and manufacturing process control demonstrations are needed to validate expert systems for the MSS.

  4. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component hasmore » degraded.« less

  5. Eliciting consumer preferences for health plans.

    PubMed Central

    Booske, B C; Sainfort, F; Hundt, A S

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine (1) what people say is important to them in choosing a health plan; (2) the effect, if any, that giving health plan information has on what people say is important to them; and (3) the effect of preference elicitation methods on what people say is important. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTINGS: A random sample of 201 Wisconsin state employees who participated in a health plan choice experiment during the 1995 open enrollment period. STUDY DESIGN: We designed a computer system to guide subjects through the review of information about health plan options. The system began by eliciting the stated preferences of the subjects before they viewed the information, at time 0. Subjects were given an opportunity to revise their preference structures first after viewing summary information about four health plans (time 1) and then after viewing more extensive, detailed information about the same options (time 2). At time 2, these individuals were also asked to rate the relative importance of a predefined list of health plan features presented to them. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data were collected on the number of attributes listed at each point in time and the importance weightings assigned to each attribute. In addition, each item on the attribute list was content analyzed. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The provision of information changes the preference structures of individuals. Costs (price) and coverage dominated the attributes cited both before and after looking at health plan information. When presented with information on costs, quality, and how plans work, many of these relatively well educated consumers revised their preference structures; yet coverage and costs remained the primary cited attributes. CONCLUSIONS: Although efforts to provide health plan information should continue, decisions on the information to provide and on making it available are not enough. Individuals need help in understanding, processing, and using the information to construct

  6. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, Jerry L.; Petrik, Edward J.; Roth, Mary Ellen; Truong, Long Van; Quinn, Todd; Krawczonek, Walter M.

    1990-01-01

    The Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) system was designed to monitor and diagnose fault conditions that occur within the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (SSF/EPS) Testbed. APEX is designed to interface with SSF/EPS testbed power management controllers to provide enhanced autonomous operation and control capability. The APEX architecture consists of three components: (1) a rule-based expert system, (2) a testbed data acquisition interface, and (3) a power scheduler interface. Fault detection, fault isolation, justification of probable causes, recommended actions, and incipient fault analysis are the main functions of the expert system component. The data acquisition component requests and receives pertinent parametric values from the EPS testbed and asserts the values into a knowledge base. Power load profile information is obtained from a remote scheduler through the power scheduler interface component. The current APEX design and development work is discussed. Operation and use of APEX by way of the user interface screens is also covered.

  7. Intelligent interfaces for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Villarreal, James A.; Wang, Lui

    1988-01-01

    Vital to the success of an expert system is an interface to the user which performs intelligently. A generic intelligent interface is being developed for expert systems. This intelligent interface was developed around the in-house developed Expert System for the Flight Analysis System (ESFAS). The Flight Analysis System (FAS) is comprised of 84 configuration controlled FORTRAN subroutines that are used in the preflight analysis of the space shuttle. In order to use FAS proficiently, a person must be knowledgeable in the areas of flight mechanics, the procedures involved in deploying a certain payload, and an overall understanding of the FAS. ESFAS, still in its developmental stage, is taking into account much of this knowledge. The generic intelligent interface involves the integration of a speech recognizer and synthesizer, a preparser, and a natural language parser to ESFAS. The speech recognizer being used is capable of recognizing 1000 words of connected speech. The natural language parser is a commercial software package which uses caseframe instantiation in processing the streams of words from the speech recognizer or the keyboard. The systems configuration is described along with capabilities and drawbacks.

  8. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D.; Hand, Un Kyong |

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  9. Three image experts which help distinguish lung tumors from non-tumors. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Lampeter, W.

    1984-02-01

    The design of three vision-expert programs is described. The vision experts are based on appearance models of objects in a typical chest radiograph which were derived using information from human experts. Each expert is based on a different technical concept. The rib expert uses relational constraints on parameter (Hough transform) space to determine if a rib has been detected; the vascularity expert uses a back-projected Hough transform; and the nodule expert uses features which were derived from studies of the nodule recognition process of radiologistics. The efficacy of the descriptive models and their implementations are evaluated. The process of development and implementation of image experts are discussed.

  10. Expert systems: a classical introduction.

    PubMed

    Semmel, R D

    1988-01-01

    Expert systems are providing a means of solving complex problems that previously defied automation efforts. This paper explains what an expert system is and how one operates. Following a brief description of expert systems, the nature of computer problem-solving and the role of knowledge in that activity are discussed. A typical expert system architecture and common knowledge representation schemes are then described. Finally, the operation of a simple, rule-based expert system is illustrated. PMID:10288417

  11. Photo-Elicitation and Visual Semiotics: A Unique Methodology for Studying Inclusion for Children with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stockall, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    The methodology in this paper discusses the use of photographs as an elicitation strategy that can reveal the thinking processes of participants in a qualitatively rich manner. Photo-elicitation techniques combined with a Piercian semiotic perspective offer a unique method for creating a frame of action for later participant analysis. Illustrative…

  12. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  13. Where Experts Come From.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horgan, Dianne D.

    Studies of over 100 chess players at varying skill levels and ages show the ways in which experts and nonexperts differ in problem-solving strategies. Important differences are found at all stages of problem solving. The most significant differences appear to be before and after the evaluation of alternatives ("sizing up" the problem, generating…

  14. Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and geology)…

  15. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--medical expert assessment from the viewpoint of the attorney].

    PubMed

    Dierks, C

    1996-11-01

    Dealing with a medical expert assessment requires experience and perseverance of the lawyer. Exact knowledge about the expert opinion itself and the procedural options is of greatest importance due to the decisive impact of the medical expert assessment on the outcome of the lawsuit. The lawyer has to consider at any time of the process whether he can initiate an expert assessment, whether he has to evaluate, criticize or question obtained expert assessments, whether he has to challenge the expert or possibly has to introduce another expert into the lawsuit. The expert witness has to have professional knowledge and the lawyer as well as the court have to absorb this knowledge and use it accordingly. PMID:9064931

  16. Integrating Expert Knowledge with Data in Bayesian Networks: Preserving Data-Driven Expectations when the Expert Variables Remain Unobserved

    PubMed Central

    Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin

    2016-01-01

    When developing a causal probabilistic model, i.e. a Bayesian network (BN), it is common to incorporate expert knowledge of factors that are important for decision analysis but where historical data are unavailable or difficult to obtain. This paper focuses on the problem whereby the distribution of some continuous variable in a BN is known from data, but where we wish to explicitly model the impact of some additional expert variable (for which there is expert judgment but no data). Because the statistical outcomes are already influenced by the causes an expert might identify as variables missing from the dataset, the incentive here is to add the expert factor to the model in such a way that the distribution of the data variable is preserved when the expert factor remains unobserved. We provide a method for eliciting expert judgment that ensures the expected values of a data variable are preserved under all the known conditions. We show that it is generally neither possible, nor realistic, to preserve the variance of the data variable, but we provide a method towards determining the accuracy of expertise in terms of the extent to which the variability of the revised empirical distribution is minimised. We also describe how to incorporate the assessment of extremely rare or previously unobserved events. PMID:27378822

  17. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  18. Expert evidence and medical manslaughter: vagueness in action.

    PubMed

    Quick, Oliver

    2011-01-01

    This article examines the reliance placed on expert evidence in prosecutions of health professionals for gross negligence manslaughter, where juries must decide whether conduct goes beyond civil negligence and constitutes the crime of involuntary manslaughter. It argues that the test for liability is vague and examines some of the consequences of this. Given the vagueness of the offence, jurors are likely to place great reliance on expert medical evidence. Little is known about how experts negotiate the legal process, empirically speaking: how they approach their task, how they view their role as expert witnesses, and the attitudes, biases, and beliefs that may underpin their testimony. Drawing on the experiences and perceptions often medical experts, this article explores how experts manage the vagueness inherent in the task of interpreting and applying gross negligence. Experts appear to go beyond offering purely medical opinion and enjoy engaging with law and the legal process. PMID:22180927

  19. Expert system prototype of food aid distribution.

    PubMed

    Singh, Neeta

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to improve efficiency of the food aid distribution process of international food relief organizations. An overall objective of this study was to develop a prototype expert system for monitoring and evaluating food aid by international disaster relief organizations. The research identifies data related to monitoring and evaluation processes of various international food-aid organizations. It then applies an artificial intelligence-based expert system to develop a prototype for those processes. Existing data related to monitoring and evaluation program cycles were obtained. An expert system shell called CLIPS(c) (National Aeronautics Space Administration) was used to develop a prototype system named Food Aid Monitor, a rule-based expert system, which uses facts and heuristic rules to provide an adaptive feedback regarding monitoring and evaluating processes at various stages of food aid operation. The Food Aid Monitor was evaluated and validated by three expert panels checking the prototype system for completeness, relevancy, consistency, correctness, precision, and use-ability. Finally, the panels indicated a belief that the system could have an overall positive impact on the stages of monitoring and evaluating food aid processes of the food relief organizations. PMID:17392088

  20. Developing an Expert System for Nursing Practice

    PubMed Central

    Ozbolt, Judy G.; Schultz, Samuel; Swain, Mary Ann P.; Abraham, Ivo L.; Farchaus-Stein, Karen

    1984-01-01

    The American Nurses' Association has set eight Standards of Nursing Practice related to the nursing process. Computer-aided information systems intended to facilitate the nursing process must be designed to promote adherence to these professional standards. For each of the eight standards, the paper tells how a hypothetical expert system could help nurses to meet the standard. A prototype of such an expert system is being developed. The paper describes issues in conceptualizing clinical decision-making and developing decision strategies for the prototype system. The process of developing the prototype system is described.

  1. Make yourself an expert.

    PubMed

    Leonard, Dorothy; Barton, Gavin; Barton, Michelle

    2013-04-01

    Almost every organization has people it can't do without--specialists with "deep smarts," who are the go-to experts on critical issues. But because their knowledge is experienced-based, it's often instinctive and unarticulated, and never gets passed on. Capturing it is a challenge for both the organization and for colleagues who wish to become in-house authorities themselves. This article offers a methodical system for acquiring deep smarts from an expert. It involves observing that person extensively to understand what makes him successful, practicing the behaviors he exhibits on your own, partnering with him to solve problems, and ultimately taking responsibility for some of his tasks. Describing the experiences of one executive as she takes this journey with a mentor, the authors show how you too can gain the wisdom that will make you indispensable to your firm. PMID:23593772

  2. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  3. ALICE Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, C.; Carena, F.

    2014-06-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period.

  4. An Exploratory Study of Expert Group Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubel, Deborah J.; Kline, William B.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the results of a grounded theory exploration that described expert group leaders' experiences and perceptions during the process of leading groups in terms of influence of experience, preexisting knowledge and attitudes, and in-the-moment leadership process. The discussion presents implications for practice, counselor…

  5. Music can elicit a visual motion aftereffect.

    PubMed

    Hedger, Stephen C; Nusbaum, Howard C; Lescop, Olivier; Wallisch, Pascal; Hoeckner, Berthold

    2013-07-01

    Motion aftereffects (MAEs) are thought to result from the adaptation of both subcortical and cortical systems involved in the processing of visual motion. Recently, it has been reported that the implied motion of static images in combination with linguistic descriptions of motion is sufficient to elicit an MAE, although neither factor alone is thought to directly activate visual motion areas in the brain. Given that the monotonic change of musical pitch is widely recognized in music as a metaphor for vertical motion, we investigated whether prolonged exposure to ascending or descending musical scales can also produce a visual motion aftereffect. After listening to ascending or descending musical scales, participants made decisions about the direction of visual motion in random-dot kinematogram stimuli. Metaphoric motion in the musical stimuli did affect the visual direction judgments, in that repeated exposure to rising or falling musical scales shifted participants' sensitivity to visual motion in the opposite direction. The finding that music can induce an MAE suggests that the subjective interpretation of monotonic pitch change as motion may have a perceptual foundation. PMID:23456973

  6. [Gastroenterology - accusations and errors in treatment: evaluation of the completed expertise process in internal medicine of the expert committee of North Rhineland for the years 2001 to 2005].

    PubMed

    Weber, B; Becker, K; Strohmeyer, G

    2008-08-01

    Since three decades the extrajudical expertise procedures of the Expert Committee and Arbitration Group has served to pacify the doctor-patient relationship. Systematic analyses of accusations and errors provide valuable data that help to avoid treatment errors and liability disputes against physicians. Disease of the gastrointestinal tract were found ex post to be the main diagnosis in 10 % of the patients entering complaints. The most common benign diseases were bile duct diseases (1.5 %), acute appendicitis (1.2 %) and diverticulosis (0.9 %); malignant tumours of the digestive organs were found in 1.8 %. About one-third of the procedures were directed internists; with 25 % the quota of treatment errors was less than the general average of one third. With an overproportional frequency (56 %) diagnosis errors were confirmed for the occurrence of appendicitis. Diagnostic and therapeutic endoscopic examinations were the subject of the claimed erroneous treatment by internists in 34 % of the cases: perforations and postinterventional pancreatitis were frequent reasons for filing a complaint. For the resultant injuries, including 4 fatalities, the internists were found to be liable for damages in a total of 17 % of the cases. PMID:18759199

  7. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

    1998-03-30

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  8. Expert and Knowledge Based Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demaid, Adrian; Edwards, Lyndon

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the nature and current state of knowledge-based systems and expert systems. Describes an expert system from the viewpoints of a computer programmer and an applications expert. Addresses concerns related to materials selection and forecasts future developments in the teaching of materials engineering. (ML)

  9. Distinctive Qualities of Expert Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsui, Amy B. M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper attempts to identify the distinctive qualities of successful veteran teachers, referred to as "expert teachers", which separates them not only from novice teachers but more importantly from experienced non-expert teachers. Based on earlier case studies, this paper maintains that the critical differences between expert and non-expert…

  10. Metaphors of Distress: Photo-Elicitation Enhances a Discourse Analysis of Parents' Accounts.

    PubMed

    Kantrowitz-Gordon, Ira; Vandermause, Roxanne

    2016-07-01

    In research on sensitive topics, photo-elicitation can be a profound aid to data collection and interpretation processes. Photo-elicitation methods were used in this manner in a discourse analysis of parents' distress at least 6 months after preterm birth. After an initial interview, participants were asked to take digital photographs representing their distress and to return for a second interview to discuss the photographs. The elicited photo representations supported participants' engagement with their current or past distress and generated new meanings from the reappraisal of old photographs. Photo-elicitation demonstrated the embodiment of parents' distress in the child and the placement of distress in specific locations. Photographs of documents showed the power of the written word in generating and maintaining distress. Participants used existing photographs from their child's photo history to generate rich metaphors for their distress as parents. These findings have implications for enhancing interpretive health research by incorporating photo-elicitation methods. PMID:25792488

  11. Comparison of elicitation methods for moral and affective beliefs in the theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Dean, M; Arvola, A; Vassallo, M; Lähteenmäki, L; Raats, M M; Saba, A; Shepherd, R

    2006-09-01

    Although the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been applied successfully in the area of food choice, it has been criticized for its pure utilitarian approach to the factors determining behaviour. Despite the increase in predictive power of the model with added components such as affective attitude and moral and ethical concerns, in most studies the elicitation process still only addresses people's utilitarian beliefs about the behaviour with little attention paid to other aspects. This study compares the traditional method of elicitation of advantages and disadvantages with two other methods (word association and open-ended) in the elicitations of beliefs, attitudes and moral concerns in relation to the consumption of organic foods. Results show the traditional method to be best for eliciting cognitive beliefs, open-ended emotion task for eliciting emotional beliefs and open-ended beliefs task best for moral concerns. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. PMID:16782230

  12. The imported forensic expert

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, C.P.

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  13. The Principles of Designing an Expert System in Teaching Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salekhova, Lailya; Nurgaliev, Albert; Zaripova, Rinata; Khakimullina, Nailya

    2013-01-01

    This study reveals general didactic concepts of the Expert Systems (ES) development process in the educational area. The proof of concept is based on the example of teaching the 8th grade Algebra subject. The main contribution in this work is the implementation of innovative approaches in analysis and processing of data by expert system as well as…

  14. XPRT: An expert system shell

    SciTech Connect

    Cochrell, G.D.

    1988-09-01

    XPRT is a rule-based expert system shell written in the C programming language. This report contains a detailed description of the commands available in XPRT and also describes the syntax rules needed to construct a knowledge base. The shell's source code uses standard ANSI C, which allows it to run on any computer that can compile a C program. The executable code occupies 70K of PC memory. XPRT's inference engine can be commanded to backward chain or forward chain. Heuristics may be employed to reduce the search space of knowledge base rules. XPRT can read and write external files and spawn processes. The shell is mainly a symbolic processor but can handle numerical data as well. A mechanism of weighted facts and rules is used as an approach for handling uncertainty. XPRT is a no-frills shell with some very practical commands. The shell was used to write an expert system that is currently scheduling over a dozen software programs to maintain and manage a large departmental database. XPRT continues to evolve, and our organization is finding the shell to be a valuable programming tool. 6 refs.

  15. Auditory memory function in expert chess players

    PubMed Central

    Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. Methods: The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. Results: The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Conclusion: Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time. PMID:26793666

  16. Stereoscopy Amplifies Emotions Elicited by Facial Expressions

    PubMed Central

    Kätsyri, Jari; Häkkinen, Jukka

    2015-01-01

    Mediated facial expressions do not elicit emotions as strongly as real-life facial expressions, possibly due to the low fidelity of pictorial presentations in typical mediation technologies. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which stereoscopy amplifies emotions elicited by images of neutral, angry, and happy facial expressions. The emotional self-reports of positive and negative valence (which were evaluated separately) and arousal of 40 participants were recorded. The magnitude of perceived depth in the stereoscopic images was manipulated by varying the camera base at 15, 40, 65, 90, and 115 mm. The analyses controlled for participants’ gender, gender match, emotional empathy, and trait alexithymia. The results indicated that stereoscopy significantly amplified the negative valence and arousal elicited by angry expressions at the most natural (65 mm) camera base, whereas stereoscopy amplified the positive valence elicited by happy expressions in both the narrowed and most natural (15–65 mm) base conditions. Overall, the results indicate that stereoscopy amplifies the emotions elicited by mediated emotional facial expressions when the depth geometry is close to natural. The findings highlight the sensitivity of the visual system to depth and its effect on emotions. PMID:27551358

  17. Strategies for Eliciting HIV-1 Inhibitory Antibodies

    PubMed Central

    Tomaras, Georgia D.; Haynes, Barton F.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of review Major roadblocks persist in the development of vaccines that elicit potent neutralizing antibodies targeting diverse HIV-1 strains, similar to known broadly neutralizing HIV-1 human monoclonal antibodies. Alternatively, other types of anti-HIV-1 envelope antibodies that may not neutralize HIV-1 in traditional neutralization assays but have other anti-HIV-1 activities (hereafter termed HIV-1 inhibitory antibodies) can be elicited by current vaccine strategies, and numerous studies are exploring their roles in preventing HIV-1 acquisition. We review examples of strategies for eliciting potentially protective HIV-1 inhibitory antibodies. Recent Findings Heterologous prime-boost strategies can yield anti-HIV immune responses; although only one (canarypox prime, Env protein boost) has been tested and shown positive results in an efficacy trial (RV144). Although the immune correlates of protection are as yet undefined, the reduced rate of acquisition without a significant effect on initial viral loads or CD4+ T cell counts, have raised the hypothesis of an RV144 vaccine-elicited transient protective B cell response. Summary In light of the RV144 trial, there is a critical need to define the entire functional spectrum of anti-HIV-1 antibodies, how easily each can be elicited, and how effective different types of antibody effector mechanisms can be in prevention of HIV-1 transmission. PMID:20978384

  18. Stereoscopy Amplifies Emotions Elicited by Facial Expressions.

    PubMed

    Hakala, Jussi; Kätsyri, Jari; Häkkinen, Jukka

    2015-12-01

    Mediated facial expressions do not elicit emotions as strongly as real-life facial expressions, possibly due to the low fidelity of pictorial presentations in typical mediation technologies. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which stereoscopy amplifies emotions elicited by images of neutral, angry, and happy facial expressions. The emotional self-reports of positive and negative valence (which were evaluated separately) and arousal of 40 participants were recorded. The magnitude of perceived depth in the stereoscopic images was manipulated by varying the camera base at 15, 40, 65, 90, and 115 mm. The analyses controlled for participants' gender, gender match, emotional empathy, and trait alexithymia. The results indicated that stereoscopy significantly amplified the negative valence and arousal elicited by angry expressions at the most natural (65 mm) camera base, whereas stereoscopy amplified the positive valence elicited by happy expressions in both the narrowed and most natural (15-65 mm) base conditions. Overall, the results indicate that stereoscopy amplifies the emotions elicited by mediated emotional facial expressions when the depth geometry is close to natural. The findings highlight the sensitivity of the visual system to depth and its effect on emotions. PMID:27551358

  19. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential. PMID:24730171

  20. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling and dynamic replanning.

  1. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling an dynamic replanning.

  2. Evaluation of high-level waste pretreatment processes with an approximate reasoning model

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Agnew, S.F.

    1999-04-01

    The development of an approximate-reasoning (AR)-based model to analyze pretreatment options for high-level waste is presented. AR methods are used to emulate the processes used by experts in arriving at a judgment. In this paper, the authors first consider two specific issues in applying AR to the analysis of pretreatment options. They examine how to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence to infer the acceptability of a process result using the example of cesium content in low-level waste. They then demonstrate the use of simple physical models to structure expert elicitation and to produce inferences consistent with a problem involving waste particle size effects.

  3. Rational elicitation of cold-sensitive phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Baliga, Chetana; Majhi, Sandipan; Mondal, Kajari; Bhattacharjee, Antara; VijayRaghavan, K; Varadarajan, Raghavan

    2016-05-01

    Cold-sensitive phenotypes have helped us understand macromolecular assembly and biological phenomena, yet few attempts have been made to understand the basis of cold sensitivity or to elicit it by design. We report a method for rational design of cold-sensitive phenotypes. The method involves generation of partial loss-of-function mutants, at either buried or functional sites, coupled with selective overexpression strategies. The only essential input is amino acid sequence, although available structural information can be used as well. The method has been used to elicit cold-sensitive mutants of a variety of proteins, both monomeric and dimeric, and in multiple organisms, namely Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Drosophila melanogaster This simple, yet effective technique of inducing cold sensitivity eliminates the need for complex mutations and provides a plausible molecular mechanism for eliciting cold-sensitive phenotypes. PMID:27091994

  4. Differential diagnosis of allergic rhinitis and sinusitis an expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Creider, R.D.; Sundar Singh, P.S.

    1996-12-31

    Nasal congestion is a common problem for many people. It is a symptom of chronic sinusitis and also a characteristic of allergic rhinitis. Individuals frequently confuse sinusitis and allergic rhinitis. The expert system described below will diagnose the problem to be either rhinitis or sinusitis. In this paper we describe the expert system, the need for such an expert system and the process of developing the system.

  5. Developing Research Priorities with a Cohort of Higher Education for Sustainability Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Tarah S. A.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the results of a Delphi exercise used at the Halifax Consultation in which 35 experts representing 17 countries gathered to develop research priorities for the emerging field of higher education for sustainability (HES). Design/methodology/approach: The Delphi technique was used to elicit the…

  6. The Elements Of Adaptive Neural Expert Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Healy, Michael J.

    1989-03-01

    The generalization properties of a class of neural architectures can be modelled mathematically. The model is a parallel predicate calculus based on pattern recognition and self-organization of long-term memory in a neural network. It may provide the basis for adaptive expert systems capable of inductive learning and rapid processing in a highly complex and changing environment.

  7. Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

    2003-01-01

    Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

  8. Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

    1990-01-01

    We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

  9. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods. PMID:27209791

  10. Expert System Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1989-01-01

    C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is a software shell for developing expert systems is designed to allow research and development of artificial intelligence on conventional computers. Originally developed by Johnson Space Center, it enables highly efficient pattern matching. A collection of conditions and actions to be taken if the conditions are met is built into a rule network. Additional pertinent facts are matched to the rule network. Using the program, E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. is monitoring chemical production machines; California Polytechnic State University is investigating artificial intelligence in computer aided design; Mentor Graphics has built a new Circuit Synthesis system, and Brooke and Brooke, a law firm, can determine which facts from a file are most important.

  11. What six experts say

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-02-01

    Six experts with backgrounds in government, business, and research describe how the energy problem should be handled. John F. O'Leary feels we need to give more attention to the interdependencies of the global energy equation and to the political and financial mechanism for developing conventional as well as unconventional resources. Hans H. Lansberg advocates and outlines a crash program for energy independence, while Steven C. Wilson recommends individual self-sufficiency and decentralization. Reducing oil imports by replacing price control with financial incentives to invest in heavy energy-saving programs are suggested by Robert C. Stobaugh. Fred L. Hartley would accomplish this by allowing the energy industry to operate in a free market. Amory Lovins suggests improving efficiency and emphasizing soft-energy technologies. (DCK)

  12. "Auctoritas" psychiatric expert system shell.

    PubMed

    Kovács, M; Juranovics, J

    1995-01-01

    validated and verified. Hence we have chosen the fuzzy logic, which is the up-to-date extension of classical logic and influences the validity and verification researches, for the construction of our system. The diagnostic part is a shell that can be filled up optionally with knowledge bases of the DSM-IV, ICD-X, or other diagnostic systems and has the following structure. The diagnostic course is biphased as we can differ symptoms and criteria (duration of the illness, aethyological factors). We managed to extend the traditional applications using yes-no logic with three factors that make the system more sensitive and flexible. These are the scaling, sorting by importance of symptoms, and reliability-validity results. The "scaling" means that the physician scales the input symptoms by severity; this influences the statistical probability of the possible diagnoses. "Sorting by importance" is gauging certain symptoms by importance in a syndrome. Finally the third point, "reliability-validity results," means taking account of the latest validity values of a certain disorder of the used diagnostic system--according to the latest validity researches--and the diagnostical reliability of our expert system. The "Activity concerning treatment" is a practical part of our program that contents the examination and therapy scheduling and monitoring results. Under the point of "Statistics," we can prepare all data of the patients in various ways. In summary, the "Auctoritas" computer system is a global database managing the newly-developed advisory system; it is appropriate for managing a complete hospital network system for the continuing individual long-distance observation of patients. It collects all the necessary information of one patient in one file. The long-term benefit is that it can compile and process large amounts of information about the patients and help physicians come to scientific conclusions for research and publications. PMID:8591608

  13. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  14. How expert advice influences decision making.

    PubMed

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor's opinion. This comparison, termed the "opinion difference", influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor's level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  15. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  16. Fuzzy expert system shell for scheduling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turksen, I. B.; Yurtsever, Tanju; Demirli, K.

    1993-12-01

    The Fuzzy Logic Expert System Scheduler (FLES) is a unique, on-line, interactive shop floor scheduler that is designed to produce detailed, realistic schedules for day-to-day production management. The user can exercise the control of FLES to produce scheduling assignments over short or long term scheduling horizons or to simulate different plant capacity conditions to analyze their effect on future work plans. The unique and proprietary feature of FLES is its `Decision Engine', a fuzzy knowledge base system that models the reasoning process of a human expert is used to give job releasing and job dispatching decisions. Expert knowledge in terms of fuzzy production rules represented by the use of linguistic variables. The values of these linguistic variables are defined by context dependent fuzzy sets whose meanings are specified by graded membership functions.

  17. An Expert Assistant for Computer Aided Parallelization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jost, Gabriele; Chun, Robert; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit

    2004-01-01

    The prototype implementation of an expert system was developed to assist the user in the computer aided parallelization process. The system interfaces to tools for automatic parallelization and performance analysis. By fusing static program structure information and dynamic performance analysis data the expert system can help the user to filter, correlate, and interpret the data gathered by the existing tools. Sections of the code that show poor performance and require further attention are rapidly identified and suggestions for improvements are presented to the user. In this paper we describe the components of the expert system and discuss its interface to the existing tools. We present a case study to demonstrate the successful use in full scale scientific applications.

  18. Expert system for scheduling simulation lab sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lund, Chet

    1990-01-01

    Implementation and results of an expert system used for scheduling session requests for the Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) laboratory at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) are discussed. Weekly session requests are received from astronaut crew trainers, procedures developers, engineering assessment personnel, software developers, and various others who wish to access the computers, scene generators, and other simulation equipment available to them in the SES lab. The expert system under discussion is comprised of a data acquisition portion - two Pascal programs run on a personal computer - and a CLIPS program installed on a minicomputer. A brief introduction to the SES lab and its scheduling background is given. A general overview of the system is provided, followed by a detailed description of the constraint-reduction process and of the scheduler itself. Results from a ten-week trial period using this approach are discussed. Finally, a summary of the expert system's strengths and shortcomings are provided.

  19. The Content Validation and Resource Development For a Course in Materials and Processes of Industry Through the Use of NASA Experts at Norfolk State College. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobs, James A.

    In an effort to develop a course in materials and processes of industry at Norfolk State College using Barton Herrscher's model of systematic instruction, a group of 12 NASA-Langley Research Center's (NASA-LRC) research engineers and technicians were recruited. The group acted as consultants in validating the content of the course and aided in…

  20. Knowledge elicitation techniques and application to nuclear plant maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, E. Kevin

    The new millennium has brought with it the opportunity of global trade which in turn requires the utmost in efficiency from each individual industry. This includes the nuclear power industry, a point which was emphasized when the electrical generation industry began to be de regulated across North America the late 1990s and re-emphasized when the northeast power grid of North America collapsed in the summer of 2003. This dissertation deals with reducing the cost of the maintenance function of Candu nuclear power plants and initiating a strong link between universities and the Canadian nuclear industry. Various forms of RCM (reliability-centred maintenance) have been the tools of choice in industry for improving the maintenance function during the last 20 years. In this project, pilot studies, conducted at Bruce Power between 1999 and 2005, and reported on in this dissertation, lay out a path to implement statistical improvements as the next step after RCM in reducing the cost of the maintenance. Elicitation protocols, designed for the age group being elicited, address the much-documented issue of a lack of data. Clear, graphical, inferential statistical interfaces are accentuated and developed to aid in building the teams required to implement the various methodologies and to help in achieving funding targets. Graphical analysis and Crow/AMSAA (army materials systems analysis activity) plots are developed and demonstrated from the point of view of justifying the expenditures of cost reduction efforts. This dissertation ultimately speaks to the great opportunity being presented by this approach at this time: of capturing the baby-boom generation's huge pool of knowledge before those people retire. It is expected that the protocols and procedures referenced here will have applicability across the many disciplines where collecting expert information from a similar age group is required.

  1. Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements

    PubMed Central

    O’Leary, Rebecca A.; Low-Choy, Samantha; Fisher, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    When limited or no observed data are available, it is often useful to obtain expert knowledge about parameters of interest, including point estimates and the uncertainty around these values. However, it is vital to elicit this information appropriately in order to obtain valid estimates. This is particularly important when the experts’ uncertainty about these estimates is strongly skewed, for instance when their best estimate is the same as the lowest value they consider possible. Also this is important when interest is in the aggregation of elicited values. In this paper, we compare alternative distributions for describing such estimates. The distributions considered include the lognormal, mirror lognormal, Normal and scaled Beta. The case study presented here involves estimation of the number of species in coral reefs, which requires eliciting counts within broader taxonomic groups, with highly skewed uncertainty estimates. This paper shows substantial gain in using the scaled Beta distribution, compared with Normal or lognormal distributions. We demonstrate that, for this case study on counting species, applying the novel encoding methodology developed in this paper can facilitate the acquisition of more rigorous estimates of (hierarchical) count data and credible bounds. The approach can also be applied to the more general case of enumerating a sampling frame via elicitation. PMID:26517835

  2. [Expert advice in liability cases].

    PubMed

    Brands, W G

    2009-05-01

    Concerning cases of liability, dentists in the future will probably have to call on expert help or act as experts on behalf of a colleague with increasing frequency. Dentists who consider acting as experts in liability cases will have to develop their expertise especially in civil law and disciplinary law. Matters which in this respect should receive special attention are: the expert must act in conformity with the law on Medical Treatment Agreement; the expert's report must make clear what the legal basis is of the report's conclusions; the legal basis must be substantially supported by the facts, conditions and findings that are mentioned in the report; the expert must act independently and refrain from subjective judgments, assumptions and unprofessional and prejudicial qualifications. PMID:19507415

  3. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koons, H. C.; Gorney, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    A microcomputer-based expert system is being developed at the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory to assist in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to address anomalies caused by surface charging, bulk charging, single event effects and total radiation dose. These effects depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local environment (which is highly variable), the satellite exposure time and the hardness of the circuits and components of the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instruments Personal Consultant Plus expert system shell. The completed expert system knowledge base will include 150 to 200 rules, as well as a spacecraft attributes database, an historical spacecraft anomalies database, and a space environment database which is updated in near real-time. Currently, the expert system is undergoing development and testing within the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory.

  4. Elicitation of macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of channel catfish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, J.A.; Klesius, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Four chemicals were evaluated for elicitation of macrophages in peritoneal cavities of 250-300g healthy channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Cellular exudates were collected at 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 20 d following intraperitoneal injections with squalene, Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA), goat serum, thioglycollate, or as a control, phosphate-buffered saline. Injection with either squalene or FIA induced significantly greater (P ??? 0.0001) macrophage recruitment than the other chemicals. The effectiveness of squalene and FIA was compared further by macrophage collection daily for 7 d. Squalene and FIA elicited similarly high macrophage responses (P ??? 0.0450), the highest being 3.43 x 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 2.4 x l06) at 99% purity at day 2 and 2.1 X 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 0.7 x 106) at day 14 at 80% purity, respectively. In both experiments, the time after injection was not statistically significant, nor was there an interaction between time and chemicals. The occurrence of cells other than macrophages decreased with time to yield macrophage recoveries of 47-99% for squalene and 30-80% for FIA. Two subsets of macrophages were observed by means of flow cytometry. As demonstrated by chemiluminescence, the squalene-elicited cells produced high-energy oxygen compounds important to the phagocytic process.

  5. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    L. J. Matthews; L. K. Burggraf; W. J. Reece

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling.

  6. Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

    1991-01-01

    Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

  7. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub

  8. Epistemological Beliefs across Faculty Experts and Student Non-Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnard-Brak, Lucy; Lan, William

    2009-01-01

    The epistemological beliefs of non-experts or novices have been studied with some frequency, while the beliefs of experts as a comparison group have received little attention in research literature. The purpose of the current study was to examine whether the conceptual framework of epistemological beliefs may be considered statistically similar or…

  9. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  10. Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.

    PubMed

    Oraby, Tamer; Tyshenko, Michael G; Westphal, Margit; Darshan, Shalu; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Cashman, Neil; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context. PMID:27556565

  11. The Expert Mathematician. Revised. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    What Works Clearinghouse, 2006

    2006-01-01

    "The Expert Mathematician" is designed to help middle school students develop the thinking processes for mathematical applications and communication. A three-year program of instruction, "The Expert Mathematician" uses a software and consumable print materials package with 196 lessons that teach the "Logo" programming language. Each lesson ranges…

  12. 37 CFR 104.23 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Expert or opinion testimony..., DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ADMINISTRATION LEGAL PROCESSES Employee Testimony and Production of Documents in Legal Proceedings § 104.23 Expert or opinion testimony. (a)(1) If the General Counsel authorizes an employee to...

  13. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The... later than 1 day after the close of fact discovery, meaning the close of discovery except...

  14. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The... later than 1 day after the close of fact discovery, meaning the close of discovery except...

  15. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The... later than 1 day after the close of fact discovery, meaning the close of discovery except...

  16. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

  17. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  18. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process

    PubMed Central

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  19. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process.

    PubMed

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  20. Expert Antiskid System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, N.; Kuraoka, H.; Ohka, N.; Ohba, M.; Tabe, T.

    1987-10-01

    In this paper we discuss how to generate the command value for the optimal regulator in an automotive antiskid system. First, the behavior of the vehicle at braking is expressed as a mathematical model with the formulation by physical consideration and identification of the hydraulic system by statistical methods. An optimal regulator with additional integral is applied to the automotive antiskid control in order to make the each wheel speed follow any command value. However, the desired command value to stop the vehicle efficiently and stably is dependent on ambiguous road surface conditions. Thus, how to determine the desired command value under the moment-to-moment conditions is most important. A method for inferring the conditions is developed using fuzzy logic, with three fuzzy variables expressing the conditions adequately. On the basis of the inference, the ideal command values are generated. Outstanding control performance and good adaptability are obtained in vehicle experiments. Consequently, the Expert Antiskid System, employing modern control theory and fuzzy logic, can stop a vehicle efficiently and stably under any condition.

  1. An Expert Map of Gambling Risk Perception.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns. PMID:25060132

  2. Expert Systems and Document Handling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edmonds, Ernest

    1987-01-01

    Describes significant attributes of expert systems, contrasts them to conventional computer systems, and provides an overview of the R1 expert system used by Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) to put together operational systems that meet customers' requirements. Document handling, particularly pictures and images in documents, is also briefly…

  3. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  4. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of expert…

  5. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  6. Communicator Credibility: Trustworthiness Defeats Expertness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lui, Louisa; Standing, Lionel

    1989-01-01

    Compared credibility of highly trustworthy communicator with that of an expert by using nuns (N=36) who listened to the same persuasive message about Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome presented as either a trustworthy source (priest), an expert (doctor), or a neutral source. Found trustworthy communicator was regarded as significantly more…

  7. Expert Systems and Medical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Educational Researcher, 1988

    1988-01-01

    Expert systems are computerized databases that can diagnose and recommend treatment for persons who are ill. The database contains information on more than 7,600 diseases generated from exhaustive questioning of experts. These systems supplement human expertise but do not replace the good teaching of physicians. (VM)

  8. Expertise in Teaching: Expert Pedagogues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavely, Carolyn; And Others

    "The purpose of this article is to report a review of the developing empirical literature to explain "expert" teacher behavior, by analogy, from the cognitive psychology expertise literature. Emphasized is a review of the expert-novice cognitive psychology literature, encompassing the research on: chess, and other games; physics, medicine, and…

  9. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  10. Engineering monitoring expert system's developer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1991-01-01

    This research project is designed to apply artificial intelligence technology including expert systems, dynamic interface of neural networks, and hypertext to construct an expert system developer. The developer environment is specifically suited to building expert systems which monitor the performance of ground support equipment for propulsion systems and testing facilities. The expert system developer, through the use of a graphics interface and a rule network, will be transparent to the user during rule constructing and data scanning of the knowledge base. The project will result in a software system that allows its user to build specific monitoring type expert systems which monitor various equipments used for propulsion systems or ground testing facilities and accrues system performance information in a dynamic knowledge base.

  11. Chain Graph Models to Elicit the Structure of a Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Stefanini, Federico M.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are possibly the most successful graphical models to build decision support systems. Building the structure of large networks is still a challenging task, but Bayesian methods are particularly suited to exploit experts' degree of belief in a quantitative way while learning the network structure from data. In this paper details are provided about how to build a prior distribution on the space of network structures by eliciting a chain graph model on structural reference features. Several structural features expected to be often useful during the elicitation are described. The statistical background needed to effectively use this approach is summarized, and some potential pitfalls are illustrated. Finally, a few seminal contributions from the literature are reformulated in terms of structural features. PMID:24688427

  12. Cognitive resources of physics experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Darrick C.

    One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.

  13. Eliciting the most prominent perceived differences between microphones.

    PubMed

    Pearce, Andy; Brookes, Tim; Dewhirst, Martin; Mason, Russell

    2016-05-01

    The attributes contributing to the differences perceived between microphones (when auditioning recordings made with those microphones) are not clear from previous research. Consideration of technical specifications and expert opinions indicated that recording five programme items with eight studio and two microelectromechanical system microphones could allow determination of the attributes related to the most prominent inter-microphone differences. Pairwise listening comparisons between the resulting 50 recordings, followed by multi-dimensional scaling analysis, revealed up to 5 salient dimensions per programme item; 17 corresponding pairs of recordings were selected exemplifying the differences across those dimensions. Direct elicitation and panel discussions on the 17 pairs identified a hierarchy of 40 perceptual attributes. An attribute contribution experiment on the 31 lowest-level attributes in the hierarchy allowed them to be ordered by degree of contribution and showed brightness, harshness, and clarity to always contribute highly to perceived inter-microphone differences. This work enables the future development of objective models to predict these important attributes. PMID:27250188

  14. The Expanding Role of the Counselor as a Vocational Expert Witness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weikel, William J.

    1986-01-01

    Examines the expanding role of the counselor as an expert witness in various legal proceedings. Specific recommendations are given regarding the content and process of vocational expert testimony as well as practical tips for the novice witness. (Author)

  15. Eyeglasses elicit effects similar to face-like perceptual expertise: evidence from the N170 response.

    PubMed

    Cao, Xiaohua; Yang, Qi; Hu, Fengpei

    2016-03-01

    Studies of event-related potentials show that the specific N170 response has become a stable electrophysiological hallmark of objects related to expertise in early perceptual processing. In the present study, we investigated whether eyeglasses can elicit N170 effects similar to those elicited by objects of expertise. Our results showed that the N170 response elicited by eyeglasses was larger than the response elicited by objects that do not generate perceptual expertise (e.g., houses). Importantly, we found that eyeglasses could produce a within-category N170 adaptation effect, similar to that produced in response to objects of expertise (e.g., faces). Our results have revealed for the first time that with a large amount of experience, eyeglasses could evoke the face-like N170 response, which suggested that eyeglasses may become an object of perceptual expertise to some human observers. PMID:26670904

  16. Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

    1988-01-01

    Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

  17. [Veterinarians as experts in court].

    PubMed

    Ort, J D

    2004-03-01

    General veterinarians such as veterinary officers act as experts at court. They are in so far part of the evidence. Due to his experience the veterinary expert shall give systematical uniform principles concerning even domains adjacent to the field of animal protection such as protection of animal epidemics and food cases, verifiable by science and university research. Examples for expert's topics as well as the requirements of expert reports are shown. According to paragraph 15 II Tierschutzgesetz (Animal Protection Act), as well as according to paragraph paragraph 63, 76 Ordnungswidrigkeitengesetz the experts participation in the proceeding is necessary. In consideration of paragraph paragraph 74, 22 Strafprozessordnung (Code of Criminal Proceedure) conflicts may arise because the veterinarian officer is self-contained investigator, witness as well as expert in the same proceeding. In general the veterinarian officer, who has been involved in the investigations must be excluded from expert activity in the same case. The veterinarian officers have to solve this problem by seperating tasks and functions within one legal case. PMID:15195954

  18. Being an expert witness in geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Edward A.

    2015-02-01

    Gathering your own data and coming to your own conclusion through scientific research and discovery is the most important principle to remember when being an expert witness in geomorphology. You can only be questioned in deposition and trial in your area of expertise. You are qualified as an expert by education, knowledge, and experience. You will have absolutely nothing to fear from cross-examination if you are prepared and confident about your work. Being an expert witness requires good communication skills. When you make a presentation, speak clearly and avoid jargon, especially when addressing a jury. Keep in mind that when you take on a case that may eventually go to court as a lawsuit, the entire process, with appeals and so forth, can take several years. Therefore, being an expert may become a long-term commitment of your time and energy. You may be hired by either side in a dispute, but your job is the same - determine the scientific basis of the case and explain your scientific reasoning to the lawyers, the judge, and the jury. Your work, including pre-trial investigations, often determines what the case will be based on. The use of science in the discovery part of an investigation is demonstrated from a California case involving the Ventura River, where building of a flood control levee restricted flow to a narrower channel, increasing unit stream power as well as potential for bank erosion and landsliding.

  19. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

  20. Filtering information from human experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendel, Max B.; Sheridan, Thomas B.

    1989-01-01

    The authors propose a model, or filter, for debiasing opinions from multiple experts and combining them into a single consistent estimate of some variable of interest. A distinguishing feature of the approach consists of making the calibration of experts an integral part of filtering. This enables the filter to learn from previous experience with the experts. The theoretical development takes a Bayesian perspective, using de Finetti's (1964) notion of exchangeability. Experimental results with a preliminary computer implementation of the filter show that its estimates are better than those from comparable filters that do not involve calibration.

  1. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  2. Expert system for generating fuel movement procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Hendrickson, J.P. )

    1991-01-01

    Commercial nuclear power reactors are required by federal law and their operating license to track and control the movement of nuclear fuel. Planning nuclear fuel movements during a refueling outage by hand is a tedious process involving an initial state and final state separated by physical and administrative constraints. Since the initial and final states as well as all constraints are known, an expert computer system for planning this process is possible. Turkey Point station worked with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)-selected vendor to implement such a system. Over the course of a 2-yr period, the EPRI Fuel Shuffle Planning System evolved from a high-tech word processor to an expert system capable of planning all fuel movement sequences required to refuel a nuclear reactor core. Turkey Point site is composed to two pressurized water reactor units owned and operated by Florida Power and Light Company.

  3. Spacecraft command and control using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norcross, Scott; Grieser, William H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a product called the Intelligent Mission Toolkit (IMT), which was created to meet the changing demands of the spacecraft command and control market. IMT is a command and control system built upon an expert system. Its primary functions are to send commands to the spacecraft and process telemetry data received from the spacecraft. It also controls the ground equipment used to support the system, such as encryption gear, and telemetry front-end equipment. Add-on modules allow IMT to control antennas and antenna interface equipment. The design philosophy for IMT is to utilize available commercial products wherever possible. IMT utilizes Gensym's G2 Real-time Expert System as the core of the system. G2 is responsible for overall system control, spacecraft commanding control, and spacecraft telemetry analysis and display. Other commercial products incorporated into IMT include the SYBASE relational database management system and Loral Test and Integration Systems' System 500 for telemetry front-end processing.

  4. Expert system development for probabilistic load simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ho, H.; Newell, J. F.

    1991-01-01

    A knowledge based system LDEXPT using the intelligent data base paradigm was developed for the Composite Load Spectra (CLS) project to simulate the probabilistic loads of a space propulsion system. The knowledge base approach provides a systematic framework of organizing the load information and facilitates the coupling of the numerical processing and symbolic (information) processing. It provides an incremental development environment for building generic probabilistic load models and book keeping the associated load information. A large volume of load data is stored in the data base and can be retrieved and updated by a built-in data base management system. The data base system standardizes the data storage and retrieval procedures. It helps maintain data integrity and avoid data redundancy. The intelligent data base paradigm provides ways to build expert system rules for shallow and deep reasoning and thus provides expert knowledge to help users to obtain the required probabilistic load spectra.

  5. An expert system for shuttle and satellite radar tracker scheduling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Paul

    1988-01-01

    This expert system automates and optimizes radar tracker selection for shuttle missions. The expert system is written in the FORTRAN and C languages on an HP9000. It is portable to any UNIX machine having both ANSI-77 FORTRAN and C language compilers. It is a rule based expert system that selects tracking stations from the S-band and C-band radar stations and the TDRSS east and TDRSS west satellites under a variety of conditions. The expert system was prototyped on the Symbolics in the Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) and ZetaLisp. After the prototype demonstrated an acceptable automation of the process of selecting tracking stations to support the orbit determination requirements of Shuttle missions, the basic ART rules of the prototype were ported to the HP9000 computer using the CLIPS language. CLIPS is a forward-chaining rule-based expert system language written in C. Prior to the development of this expert system the selection process was a tedious manual process and expensive in terms of human resources. Manual tracking station selection required from 1 to 2 man weeks per mission; whereas the expert system can complete the selection process in about 2 hours.

  6. An Expert Fault Diagnosis System for Vehicle Air Conditioning Product Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, C. F.; Tee, B. T.; Khalil, S. N.; Chen, W.; Rauterberg, G. W. M.

    2015-09-01

    The paper describes the development of the vehicle air-conditioning fault diagnosis system in automotive industries with expert system shell. The main aim of the research is to diagnose the problem of new vehicle air-conditioning system development process and select the most suitable solution to the problems. In the vehicle air-conditioning manufacturing industry, process can be very costly where an expert and experience personnel needed in certain circumstances. The expert of in the industry will retire or resign from time to time. When the expert is absent, their experience and knowledge is difficult to retrieve or lost forever. Expert system is a convenient method to replace expert. By replacing the expert with expert system, the accuracy of the processes will be increased compared to the conventional way. Therefore, the quality of product services that are produced will be finer and better. The inputs for the fault diagnosis are based on design data and experience of the engineer.

  7. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  8. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  9. Styles Of Programming In Neural Networks And Expert Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duda, Richard O.

    1989-03-01

    Neural networks and expert systems provide different ways to reduce the programming effort required to build complex systems. Adaptive neural networks are programmed merely by training them with examples. Rule-based expert system are developed incrementally merely by adding rules. Although neural networks seem best suited for low-level sensory processing and expert systems seem best suited for high-level symbolic processing, strikingly similar issues arise when these approaches are used in large-scale applications. Illustrative examples of such applications are presented and discussed.

  10. Expert system aid for military finance

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Meador, M.

    1987-09-14

    Historically, budget preparation processes have been difficult to accomplish. Errors and inconsistencies cause problems for the analyst during budget review. This paper discusses the development and testing of an expert system to aid budget preparation. The prototyping tool, its capabilities, and their application are discussed. Shown are the pilot testing procedures and their role in system development. Current status and enhancements (including software updates and future testing) are also presented. 12 refs., 3 figs.

  11. Expert system modeling of a vision system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reihani, Kamran; Thompson, Wiley E.

    1992-05-01

    The proposed artificial intelligence-based vision model incorporates natural recognition processes depicted as a visual pyramid and hierarchical representation of objects in the database. The visual pyramid, with based and apex representing pixels and image, respectively, is used as an analogy for a vision system. This paper provides an overview of recognition activities and states in the framework of an inductive model. Also, it presents a natural vision system and a counterpart expert system model that incorporates the described operations.

  12. The making of expert clinicians: reflective practice.

    PubMed

    Maestre, J M; Szyld, D; Del Moral, I; Ortiz, G; Rudolph, J W

    2014-05-01

    Debriefing is a rigorous reflection process which helps trainees recognize and resolve clinical and behavioral dilemmas raised by a clinical case. This approach emphasizes eliciting trainees'assumptions about the situation and their reasons for performing as they did (mental models). It analyses their impact on actions, to understand if it is necessary to maintain them or construct new ones that may lead to better performance in the future. It blends evidence and theory from education research, the social and cognitive sciences, and experience drawn from conducting and teaching debriefing to clinicians worldwide, on how to improve professional effectiveness through "reflective practice". PMID:24439667

  13. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  14. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    PubMed

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  15. Professionalism in court: The neurologist as expert witness.

    PubMed

    Cheshire, William P; Hutchins, John C

    2014-08-01

    Serving as an expert witness can be a rewarding experience. It affords the neurologist the opportunity to contribute expertise to the legal system's pursuit of justice and benefits the public interest. However, serving as an expert witness without understanding and incorporating relevant professional and specialty guidelines concerning expert witness testimony can place the neurologist at risk. The American Academy of Neurology has established standards governing expert witness testimony and a disciplinary process to respond to complaints of violation of its standards. Increased understanding of and adherence to these qualifications and guidelines, coupled with an awareness of how the legal system differs from clinical practice, will better equip neurologists serving as expert witnesses and minimize their professional risk when doing so. PMID:25279255

  16. Development of an expert system-based object tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Homainejad, Amir S.

    1998-12-01

    This paper outlines an experience of development of an expert system. The necessity of an expert system which can recognize and track any dynamic object in the field of view a vision system, was the main reason of development of the expert system. For achieving the goals of an expert system, some priorities must be considered. Dialogue is the first priority and it should be understandable by program. Otherwise, if a small error is given to computer, it will result in a large failure of knowledge and the wrong processing. Another priority is the knowledge-base, and this includes the procedural and the declarative memories. The paper will explain the application of above priority in a project of real time object tracking. The obtained results of tracking were compared with the results of surveying intersection so that the ability of the expert system was tested.

  17. A software engineering approach to expert system design and verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bochsler, Daniel C.; Goodwin, Mary Ann

    1988-01-01

    Software engineering design and verification methods for developing expert systems are not yet well defined. Integration of expert system technology into software production environments will require effective software engineering methodologies to support the entire life cycle of expert systems. The software engineering methods used to design and verify an expert system, RENEX, is discussed. RENEX demonstrates autonomous rendezvous and proximity operations, including replanning trajectory events and subsystem fault detection, onboard a space vehicle during flight. The RENEX designers utilized a number of software engineering methodologies to deal with the complex problems inherent in this system. An overview is presented of the methods utilized. Details of the verification process receive special emphasis. The benefits and weaknesses of the methods for supporting the development life cycle of expert systems are evaluated, and recommendations are made based on the overall experiences with the methods.

  18. Eliciting design patterns for e-learning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-06-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through the use of appropriate, authentic scenarios. However, an iterative pattern process is proposed that takes advantage of multiple data sources, thus emphasizing a holistic view of the teaching learning processes. The proposed schema of pattern mining has been extensively validated for Asynchronous Network Supported Collaborative Learning (ANSCL) systems, as well as for other types of tools in a variety of scenarios, with promising results.

  19. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--stand for evaluating medical expert assessment].

    PubMed

    Kienzle, H F

    1996-11-01

    The standard for the assessment of the medical expert opinion is defined by the high demands expected from the judgement of a high court: Objectiveness, solid knowledge, self-criticism, in contestability in diction and firmness in the argumentation. From the legal point of view, the knowledge of the medical expert witness has to clearly go beyond the knowledge of his profession. The obligation for objectiveness is the basis of expert witness' activity. From the medical point of view, the physician has to take into account during the preparation of his expert assessment that structural deficiency of the personnel and surgical equipment of a department for surgery frequently plays a role due to the development of surgery to high tech medicine and the hospital physician cannot affect this. It is necessary for a physician as an expert witness to have basic knowledge about the evidence law and the medical liability process. On the other hand, judges and lawyers should basically know the medical way of thinking. PMID:9064929

  20. Inquiry into the Practices of Expert Courseware Designers: A Pragmatic Method for the Design of Effective Instructional Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowley, Kurt

    2005-01-01

    A multi-stage study of the practices of expert courseware designers was conducted with the final goal of identifying methods for assisting non-experts with the design of effective instructional systems. A total of 25 expert designers were involved in all stages of the inquiry. A model of the expert courseware design process was created, tested,…

  1. Genetic algorithm testbed for expert system testing. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Roache, E.

    1996-01-01

    In recent years, the electric utility industry has developed advisory and control software that makes use of expert system technology. The validation of the underlying knowledge representation in these expert systems is critical to their success. Most expert systems currently deployed have been validated by certifying that the expert system provides appropriate conclusions for specific test cases. While this type of testing is important, it does not test cases where unexpected inputs are presented to the expert system and potential errors are exposed. Exhaustive testing is not typically an option due to the complexity of the knowledge representation and the combinatorial effects associated with checking all possible inputs through all possible execution paths. Genetic algorithms are general purpose search techniques modeled on natural adaptive systems and selective breeding methods. Genetic algorithms have been used successfully for parameter optimization and efficient search. The goal of this project was to confirm or reject the hypothesis that genetic algorithms (GAs) are useful in expert system validation. The GA system specifically targeted errors in the study`s expert system that would be exposed by unexpected input cases. The GA system found errors in the expert system and the hypothesis was confirmed. This report describes the process and results of the project.

  2. The aggregation of expert judgment: do good things come to those who weight?

    PubMed

    Bolger, Fergus; Rowe, Gene

    2015-01-01

    Good policy making should be based on available scientific knowledge. Sometimes this knowledge is well established through research, but often scientists must simply express their judgment, and this is particularly so in risk scenarios that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Usually in such cases, the opinions of several experts will be sought in order to pool knowledge and reduce error, raising the question of whether individual expert judgments should be given different weights. We argue--against the commonly advocated "classical method"--that no significant benefits are likely to accrue from unequal weighting in mathematical aggregation. Our argument hinges on the difficulty of constructing reliable and valid measures of substantive expertise upon which to base weights. Practical problems associated with attempts to evaluate experts are also addressed. While our discussion focuses on one specific weighting scheme that is currently gaining in popularity for expert knowledge elicitation, our general thesis applies to externally imposed unequal weighting schemes more generally. PMID:25156754

  3. Isolated sleep paralysis elicited by sleep interruption.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, T; Miyasita, A; Sasaki, Y; Inugami, M; Fukuda, K

    1992-06-01

    We elicited isolated sleep paralysis (ISP) from normal subjects by a nocturnal sleep interruption schedule. On four experimental nights, 16 subjects had their sleep interrupted for 60 minutes by forced awakening at the time when 40 minutes of nonrapid eye movement (NREM) sleep had elapsed from the termination of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep in the first or third sleep cycle. This schedule produced a sleep onset REM period (SOREMP) after the interruption at a high rate of 71.9%. We succeeded in eliciting six episodes of ISP in the sleep interruptions performed (9.4%). All episodes of ISP except one occurred from SOREMP, indicating a close correlation between ISP and SOREMP. We recorded verbal reports about ISP experiences and recorded the polysomnogram (PSG) during ISP. All of the subjects with ISP experienced inability to move and were simultaneously aware of lying in the laboratory. All but one reported auditory/visual hallucinations and unpleasant emotions. PSG recordings during ISP were characterized by a REM/W stage dissociated state, i.e. abundant alpha electroencephalographs and persistence of muscle atonia shown by the tonic electromyogram. Judging from the PSG recordings, ISP differs from other dissociated states such as lucid dreaming, nocturnal panic attacks and REM sleep behavior disorders. We compare some of the sleep variables between ISP and non-ISP nights. We also discuss the similarities and differences between ISP and sleep paralysis in narcolepsy. PMID:1621022

  4. Eliciting nicotine craving with virtual smoking cues.

    PubMed

    Gamito, Pedro; Oliveira, Jorge; Baptista, André; Morais, Diogo; Lopes, Paulo; Rosa, Pedro; Santos, Nuno; Brito, Rodrigo

    2014-08-01

    Craving is a strong desire to consume that emerges in every case of substance addiction. Previous studies have shown that eliciting craving with an exposure cues protocol can be a useful option for the treatment of nicotine dependence. Thus, the main goal of this study was to develop a virtual platform in order to induce craving in smokers. Fifty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to two different virtual environments: high arousal contextual cues and low arousal contextual cues scenarios (17 smokers with low nicotine dependency were excluded). An eye-tracker system was used to evaluate attention toward these cues. Eye fixation on smoking-related cues differed between smokers and nonsmokers, indicating that smokers focused more often on smoking-related cues than nonsmokers. Self-reports of craving are in agreement with these results and suggest a significant increase in craving after exposure to smoking cues. In sum, these data support the use of virtual environments for eliciting craving. PMID:24660864

  5. Expert Systems: Implications for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Learning Disabilities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Lubke, Margaret M.

    1988-01-01

    The article examines characteristics and present or potential applications of expert systems technology for diagnosis and treatment of learning disabilities. Preliminary findings indicate that expert systems can perform as well as humans in specific areas, and that the process of organizing knowledge bases for expert systems helps clarify existing…

  6. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules indecision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  7. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules in decision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  8. The Expert Project Management System (EPMS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty

    1986-01-01

    Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.

  9. Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

    2014-10-01

    Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

  10. Multiple neural network approaches to clinical expert systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stubbs, Derek F.

    1990-08-01

    We briefly review the concept of computer aided medical diagnosis and more extensively review the the existing literature on neural network applications in the field. Neural networks can function as simple expert systems for diagnosis or prognosis. Using a public database we develop a neural network for the diagnosis of a major presenting symptom while discussing the development process and possible approaches. MEDICAL EXPERTS SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DIAGNOSIS Biomedicine is an incredibly diverse and multidisciplinary field and it is not surprising that neural networks with their many applications are finding more and more applications in the highly non-linear field of biomedicine. I want to concentrate on neural networks as medical expert systems for clinical diagnosis or prognosis. Expert Systems started out as a set of computerized " ifthen" rules. Everything was reduced to boolean logic and the promised land of computer experts was said to be in sight. It never came. Why? First the computer code explodes as the number of " ifs" increases. All the " ifs" have to interact. Second experts are not very good at reducing expertise to language. It turns out that experts recognize patterns and have non-verbal left-brain intuition decision processes. Third learning by example rather than learning by rule is the way natural brains works and making computers work by rule-learning is hideously labor intensive. Neural networks can learn from example. They learn the results

  11. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. PMID:23062586

  12. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  13. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  14. Parallelism in backward-chained expert systems - Experimental results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Lawrence O.

    1990-01-01

    There are many applications which may be done by an expert system in real time, if the system is capable of real-time response. The LISP and PROLOG-based expert systems have typically been too slow for real-time response. This has led to an effort to use other languages, the development of fast pattern matching techniques and other methods of improving the speed of expert systems. Another approach to developing faster expert systems is to make use of the emerging parallel processing computer technology. A further use for parallelism is to allow reasonable response time for large knowledge bases. The size of knowledge bases may become as large as 20,000 chunks of knowledge (and more) in the near future in medical and space applications. This paper describes the use of parallel processing in the EMYCIN backward chained rule-based model.

  15. The making of an expert.

    PubMed

    Ericsson, K Anders; Prietula, Michael J; Cokely, Edward T

    2007-01-01

    Popular lore tells us that genius is born, not made. Scientific research, on the other hand, reveals that true expertise is mainly the product of years of intense practice and dedicated coaching. Ordinary practice is not enough: To reach elite levels of performance, you need to constantly push yourself beyond your abilities and comfort level. Such discipline is the key to becoming an expert in all domains, including management and leadership. Those are the conclusions reached by Ericsson, a professor of psychology at Florida State University; Prietula, a professor at the Goizueta Business School; and Cokely, a research fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, who together studied data on the behavior of experts, gathered by more than 100 scientists. What consistently distinguished elite surgeons, chess players, writers, athletes, pianists, and other experts was the habit of engaging in "deliberate" practice--a sustained focus on tasks that they couldn't do before. Experts continually analyzed what they did wrong, adjusted their techniques, and worked arduously to correct their errors. Even such traits as charisma can be developed using this technique. Working with a drama school, the authors created a set of acting exercises for managers that remarkably enhanced executives' powers of charm and persuasion. Through deliberate practice, leaders can improve their ability to win over their employees, their peers, or their board of directors. The journey to elite performance is not for the impatient or the faint of heart. It takes at least a decade and requires the guidance of an expert teacher to provide tough, often painful feedback. It also demands would-be experts to develop their "inner coach" and eventually drive their own progress. PMID:17642130

  16. User interfaces to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, A.; Emrich, M.L.

    1988-10-01

    Expert Systems are becoming increasingly popular in environments where the user is not well versed in computers or the subject domain. They offer expert advice and can also explain their lines of reasoning. As these systems are applied to highly technical areas, they become complex and large. Therefore, User Systems Interfaces (USIs) become critical. This paper discusses recent technologies that can be applied to improved user communication. In particular, bar menus/graphics, mouse interfaces, touch screens, and voice links will be highlighted. Their applications in the context of SOFTMAN (The Software Manager Apprentice) a knowledge-based system are discussed. 18 refs., 2 figs.

  17. Expert systems and fuzzy systems

    SciTech Connect

    Negoita, C.

    1985-01-01

    This book examines the design of the expert computer system and how fuzzy systems can be used to deal with imprecise information. As the author explores the effects of semantic systems on decision support systems, he asserts that the utilization of fuzzy set theory can help an expert system draw from its knowledge base more efficiently and therefore make more accurate and reliable decisions. The book includes realistic status reports in approximate reasoning and knowledge representation that are supported by a ''theory of categories'' mathematical approach. The differences between symbolic and semantic manipulation are outline, and detailed information is given on the actual theory of knowledge-based systems.

  18. Cathodic protection diagnostic expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Van Blaricum, V.L.; Kumar, A.; Park, Y.T.

    1994-12-31

    A knowledge-based diagnostic system called CP Diagnostic has been developed for troubleshooting sacrificial and impressed current cathodic protection systems. The expert system is designed to work in conjunction with the CP Diagnostic database system, which stores inventory and field measurement information for CP systems and flags problem areas. When a malfunction is detected, the expert system queries the user and the companion inventory and field measurement databases to determine its symptoms. The system will be described and examples of troubleshooting using the system will be presented.

  19. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  20. Experts discuss how benchmarking improves the healthcare industry. Roundtable discussion.

    PubMed

    Capozzalo, G L; Hlywak, J W; Kenny, B; Krivenko, C A

    1994-09-01

    Healthcare Financial Management engaged four benchmarking experts in a discussion about benchmarking and its role in the healthcare industry. The experts agree that benchmarking by itself does not create change unless it is part of a larger continuous quality improvement program; that benchmarking works best when senior management supports it enthusiastically and when the "appropriate" people are involved; and that benchmarking, when implemented correctly, is one of the best tools available to help healthcare organizations improve their internal processes. PMID:10146069

  1. An expert system based intelligent control scheme for space bioreactors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    San, Ka-Yiu

    1988-01-01

    An expert system based intelligent control scheme is being developed for the effective control and full automation of bioreactor systems in space. The scheme developed will have the capability to capture information from various resources including heuristic information from process researchers and operators. The knowledge base of the expert system should contain enough expertise to perform on-line system identification and thus be able to adapt the controllers accordingly with minimal human supervision.

  2. The linguistic construction of expert identity in professor-student discussions of science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, Alandeom W.; Sadler, Troy D.; Suslak, Daniel F.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines how participation in a verbal exchange during an inquiry-based classroom activity allows three college students and their science instructor to use linguistic signs (choices of words, grammatical structures, discursive structures, prosody and poetic discourse) to construct authority and expertise. Our work explores linguistic and interactional processes of identification (the dynamic construction and transaction of expert identity) and examines how discursive strategies adopted by the professor at different moments of the verbal exchange influence the students' subsequent discursive practices and perceptions of authority. We adopt a dialogic, socio-constructivist perspective on identity, viewing personal identities as being partially constructed via interactional positioning. Our findings reveal that the attainment of expertise involves two different types of language-mediated processes: the transmission of a professional vision or intension and the emergence of a perception of agency among students. The former is centered on referential-denotative meanings of speech (elicitation of standard account and operational definition) while the latter requires effective use of pragmatic-performative functions of speech (non-evaluative and more than minimal recipient practices). Consideration is given to the need for science instructors to be able to utilize pragmatic functions of language strategically to encourage students to position themselves within the identity of science expertise.

  3. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. PMID:25725910

  4. Eliciting Change in Maltreating Fathers: Goals, Processes, and Desired Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crooks, Claire V.; Scott, Katreena L.; Francis, Karen J.; Kelly, Tim; Reid, Maureen

    2006-01-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the need to provide appropriate intervention services to fathers who have been abusive in their families. This paper highlights four specific treatment goals for fathers who maltreat their children, along with therapeutic strategies necessary to accomplish desired outcomes. These goals were developed as part…

  5. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  6. Cathodic protection diagnostic expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Van Blaricum, V.L.; Kumar, A. ); Park, Y.T. . Dept. of Computer Science)

    1994-12-01

    A knowledge-based diagnostic system has been developed for troubleshooting cathodic protection systems. The expert system is designed to work in conjunction with a database that stores inventory and field measurement information and flags problem areas. The system is described, and examples of troubleshooting using the system are presented.

  7. Coupling expert systems and simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawamura, K.; Beale, G.; Padalkar, S.; Rodriguez-Moscoso, J.; Hsieh, B. J.; Vinz, F.; Fernandez, K. R.

    1988-01-01

    A prototype coupled system called NESS (NASA Expert Simulation System) is described. NESS assists the user in running digital simulations of dynamic systems, interprets the output data to performance specifications, and recommends a suitable series compensator to be added to the simulation model.

  8. Expert Systems for Reference Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrot, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Discussion of library reference work that may be suitable for use of expert systems focuses on (1) information and literature searches, and (2) requests to interpret bibliographic references and locate items listed. Systems and computer-assisted instruction modules designed for information retrieval at the University of Waterloo Library are…

  9. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses…

  10. Elicitation: a tool for enriching the bioactive composition of foods.

    PubMed

    Baenas, Nieves; García-Viguera, Cristina; Moreno, Diego A

    2014-01-01

    Elicitation is a good strategy to induce physiological changes and stimulate defense or stress-induced responses in plants. The elicitor treatments trigger the synthesis of phytochemical compounds in fruits, vegetables and herbs. These metabolites have been widely investigated as bioactive compounds responsible of plant cell adaptation to the environment, specific organoleptic properties of foods, and protective effects in human cells against oxidative processes in the development of neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases and certain types of cancer. Biotic (biological origin), abiotic (chemical or physical origin) elicitors and phytohormones have been applied alone or in combinations, in hydroponic solutions or sprays, and in different selected time points of the plant growth or during post-harvest. Understanding how plant tissues and their specific secondary metabolic pathways respond to specific treatments with elicitors would be the basis for designing protocols to enhance the production of secondary metabolites, in order to produce quality and healthy fresh foods. PMID:25255755

  11. Ontological leveling and elicitation for complex industrial transactions

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, L.R.; Goldsmith, S.Y.; Spires, S.V.

    1998-11-01

    The authors present an agent-oriented mechanism that uses a central ontology as a means to conduct complex distributed transactions. This is done by instantiating a template object motivated solely by the ontology, then automatically and explicitly linking each temple element to an independently constructed interface component. Validation information is attached directly to the links so that the agent need not know a priori the semantics of data validity, merely how to execute a general validation process to satisfy the conditions given in the link. Ontological leveling is critical: all terms presented to informants must be semantically coherent within the central ontology. To illustrate this approach in an industrial setting, they discuss an existing implementation that conducted international commercial transactions on the World-Wide Web. Agents operating within a federated architecture construct, populate by Web-based elicitation, and manipulate a distributed composite transaction object to effect transport of goods over the US/Mexico border.

  12. Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Hossein; Shahvali, Mansour; van den Berg, Jan; Faghih, Nezamoddin

    2007-04-01

    While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran. PMID:16887257

  13. Eliciting symptoms interpreted as normal by patients with early-stage lung cancer: could GP elicitation of normalised symptoms reduce delay in diagnosis? Cross-sectional interview study

    PubMed Central

    Brindle, Lucy; Pope, Catherine; Corner, Jessica; Leydon, Geraldine; Banerjee, Anindo

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate why symptoms indicative of early-stage lung cancer (LC) were not presented to general practitioners (GPs) and how early symptoms might be better elicited within primary care. Design, setting and participants A qualitative cross-sectional interview study about symptoms and help-seeking in 20 patients from three south England counties, awaiting resection of LC (suspected or histologically confirmed). Analysis drew on principles of discourse analysis and constant comparison to identify processes involved in interpretation and communication about symptoms, and explain non-presentation. Results Most participants experienced health changes possibly indicative of LC which had not been presented during GP consultations. Symptoms that were episodic, or potentially caused by ageing or lifestyle, were frequently not presented to GPs. In interviews, open questions about health changes/symptoms in general did not elicit these symptoms; they only emerged in response to closed questions detailing specific changes in health. Questions using disease-related labels, for example, pain or breathlessness, were less likely to elicit symptoms than questions that used non-disease terminology, such as aches, discomfort or ‘getting out of breath’. Most participants described themselves as feeling well and were reluctant to associate potentially explained, non-specific or episodic symptoms with LC, even after diagnosis. Conclusions Patients with early LC are unlikely to present symptoms possibly indicative of LC that they associate with normal processes, when attending primary care before diagnosis. Faced with patients at high LC risk, GPs will need to actively elicit potential LC symptoms not presented by the patient. Closed questions using non-disease terminology might better elicit normalised symptoms. PMID:23166137

  14. Utilizing expert systems for satellite monitoring and control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hughes, Peter M.

    1991-01-01

    Spacecraft analysts in the spacecraft control center for the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite are currently utilizing a fault-isolation expert system developed to assist in the isolation and correction of faults in the communications link. This system, the communication link expert assistance resource (CLEAR), monitors real time spacecraft and ground systems performance parameters in search of configuration discrepancies and communications link problems. If such a discrepancy or problem is isolated, CLEAR alerts the analyst and provides advice on how to resolve the problem swiftly and effectively. The CLEAR system is the first real time expert system to be used in the operational environment of a satellite control center at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Clear has not only demonstrated the utility and potential of an expert system in the demanding environment of a satellite control center, but also has revealed many of the pitfalls and deficiencies of development of expert systems. One of the lessons learned from this and other initial expert system projects is that prototypes can often be developed quite rapidly, but operational expert systems require considerable effort. Development is generally a slow, tedious process that typically requires the special skills of trained programmers. Due to the success of CLEAR and several other systems in the control center domain, a large number of expert systems will certainly be developed to support control center operations during the early 1990's. To facilitate the development of these systems, a project was initiated to develop an integrated, domain-specific tool, the generic spacecraft analyst assistent (GenSAA), that alows the spacecraft analysts to rapidly create simple expert systems themselves. By providing a highly graphical point-and-select method of system development, GenSAA allows the analyst to utilize and/or modify previously developed rule bases and system components; thus, facilitating

  15. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems: Will They Change the Library? Papers Presented at the Annual Clinic on Library Applications of Data Processing (27th, Urbana, Illinois, March 25-27, 1990). Illinois, March 25-27, 1990).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lancaster, F. W., Ed.; Smith, Linda C., Ed.

    Some of the 12 conference papers presented in this proceedings focus on the present and potential capabilities of artificial intelligence and expert systems as they relate to a wide range of library applications, including descriptive cataloging, technical services, collection development, subject indexing, reference services, database searching,…

  16. The Appropriateness of Renal Angioplasty. The ANPARIA Software: A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Gerbaud, Laurent; Manhes, Geraud; Debourse, Juliette; Gouby, Gerald Glanddier, Phyllis-Yvonne; Vader, John-Paul; Boyer, Louis Deteix, Patrice

    2008-11-15

    Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size >7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis ({>=}70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www

  17. EMCASS: Expert Motor Carrier Selection System

    SciTech Connect

    Teeters, S.W.

    1991-03-13

    The Expert Motor Carrier Selection System (EMCASS) was designed as a Knowledge-Based System to help in traffic management at Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. (Energy Systems). The primary function of the system is to suggest the optimal motor carrier(s) for a given freight shipment to or from Energy Systems. The system accepts a zip code (destination or origin) from the user, a shipment weight, and other related information in some cases. EMCASS then suggests the best carrier for that shipment, and journals the results. The objective of this project is to distribute the knowledge of the company's traffic managers, and to emulate their decision processes as closely as possible.

  18. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

  19. Expert systems for space power supply - Design, analysis, and evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, Ralph S.; Thomson, M. Kemer; Hoshor, Alan

    1987-01-01

    The feasibility of applying expert systems to the conceptual design, analysis, and evaluation of space power supplies in particular, and complex systems in general is evaluated. To do this, the space power supply design process and its associated knowledge base were analyzed and characterized in a form suitable for computer emulation of a human expert. The existing expert system tools and the results achieved with them were evaluated to assess their applicability to power system design. Some new concepts for combining program architectures (modular expert systems and algorithms) with information about the domain were applied to create a 'deep' system for handling the complex design problem. NOVICE, a code to solve a simplified version of a scoping study of a wide variety of power supply types for a broad range of missions, has been developed, programmed, and tested as a concrete feasibility demonstration.

  20. ATS displays: A reasoning visualization tool for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1990-01-01

    Reasoning visualization is a useful tool that can help users better understand the inherently non-sequential logic of an expert system. While this is desirable in most all expert system applications, it is especially so for such critical systems as those destined for space-based operations. A hierarchical view of the expert system reasoning process and some characteristics of these various levels is presented. Also presented are Abstract Time Slice (ATS) displays, a tool to visualize the plethora of interrelated information available at the host inferencing language level of reasoning. The usefulness of this tool is illustrated with some examples from a prototype potable water expert system for possible use aboard Space Station Freedom.

  1. Making a team of experts into an expert team.

    PubMed

    Charney, Carol

    2011-10-01

    Health care has traditionally been delivered primarily by experts working individually in a decentralized system lacking cohesive organization among professional disciplines. Only recently have the advantages of teamwork training been acknowledged in health care. This article explores the history, benefits, and recommendations for team training in neonatal care. TeamSTEPPS (Rockville, MD) and the revised Neonatal Resuscitation Program are cited as promising models for improved neonatal outcomes through professional teamwork. PMID:22123404

  2. Expert systems in the olefins industry

    SciTech Connect

    Borsje, H.J.; Bowen, C.P.

    1994-12-31

    On-line Expert Systems have been used successfully in the process and manufacturing industry since the late eighties. This paper describes one of these successful applications, the Recovery Boiler Advisor{trademark}, developed for a black liquor recovery boiler in a Kraft pulp mill. The ultimate goal of this advisory system is to correctly analyze an unusual situation and help the operators make a better informed decision, and help do this quicker. The effect of the ever increasing complexity and stringency of environmental and occupational regulations in the process industry puts an additional burden on the operator that can be alleviated by smart computer systems. Advanced control algorithms process simulation, neural networks, data reconciliation and rule-based system, combined with a well designed and intuitive user interface, all contribute to the alleviation of this problem. Expert systems have found few applications in the olefins industry, despite the fact that the requirement for computer assisted plant operation has increased significantly. A number of operational issues in the ethylene plant which can benefit from on-line advisory systems are identified. It is important to recognize which necessary steps must be taken to ensure that the project results in a successful product which is accepted, understood, and properly used by the operator and by the supervisory staff. Successful projects will address an existing problem with new technology.

  3. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  4. Grounded theory in medical laboratory science expert practice development.

    PubMed

    Leibach, Elizabeth Kenimer

    2011-01-01

    Grounded theory and methods related to expert practice development in medical laboratory science were described using data from a large national survey of medical laboratory scientists (MLS) overlaid on findings from analysis of expert practice domains reported in nursing literature. An extensive focus group/expert review iterative process followed by a survey of MLS practitioners produced 25 critical thinking (CT) behaviors important in expert practice. Factor analysis was applied to discern common threads or themes linking the CT behaviors. The 25 important CT behaviors were reduced to a 7-factor structure representing constructs underlying the individual, observable CT behaviors. This 7-factor structure in MLS was compared to the 7 practice domains identified in expert nursing practice. The comparison yielded commonality between MLS and nursing in CT behaviors observed in the 7 expert practice domains of both professions: professional techniques, caring communication, growing professionally, setting priorities, practicing with judgment, anticipating/revising, and creating unique meaning. Emergent grounded theory is that (1) critical thinking is a metaprocess that facilitates learning by interlinking the more basic processes associated with different learning orientations: cognitivist, behaviorist, humanist (affective), and situated/contextual learning, (2) CT behaviors are observable events following from the CT metaprocess, and (3) observations of CT behaviors increase as practice advances from novice to expert. Identification and definition of CT behaviors, i.e., practice competencies, along the continuum of novice to expert can serve as the foundation for MLS curriculum and instructional design as well as measurement and evaluation in both formal and continuing education settings. PMID:22420229

  5. Ridiculous statements by mental health experts.

    PubMed

    Bernet, William

    2011-07-01

    When mental health experts express their opinions in testimony, reports, and articles in professional literature, it is expected that their statements will accurately reflect the current state of knowledge. Experts may disagree about the data that they collected. In some cases, however, disagreement occurs because an expert has employed a methodology that is far outside usual procedures or simply disregarded objective facts. When that occurs, the expert's opinions may be considered ridiculous. The author presents examples of ridiculous statements by mental health experts and provides suggestions for how a forensic practitioner might address ridiculous statements by mental health experts. PMID:21683920

  6. Cripto-1 vaccination elicits protective immunity against metastatic melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Ligtenberg, M. A.; Witt, K.; Galvez-Cancino, F.; Sette, A.; Lundqvist, A.; Lladser, A.; Kiessling, R.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Metastatic melanoma is a fatal disease that responds poorly to classical treatments but can be targeted by T cell-based immunotherapy. Cancer vaccines have the potential to generate long-lasting cytotoxic CD8+ T cell responses able to eradicate established and disseminated tumors. Vaccination against antigens expressed by tumor cells with enhanced metastatic potential represents a highly attractive strategy to efficiently target deadly metastatic disease. Cripto-1 is frequently over-expressed in human carcinomas and melanomas, but is expressed only at low levels on normal differentiated tissues. Cripto-1 is particularly upregulated in cancer-initiating cells and is involved in cellular processes such as cell migration, invasion and epithelial–mesenchymal transition, which are hallmarks of aggressive cancer cells able to initiate metastatic disease. Here, we explored the potential of Cripto-1 vaccination to target metastatic melanoma in a preclinical model. Cripto-1 was overexpressed in highly metastatic B16F10 cells as compared to poorly metastatic B16F1 cells. Moreover, B16F10 cells grown in sphere conditions to enrich for cancer stem cells (CSC) progressively upregulated cripto1 expression. Vaccination of C57Bl/6 mice with a DNA vaccine encoding mouse Cripto-1 elicited a readily detectable/strong cytotoxic CD8+ T cell response specific for a H-2 Kb-restricted epitope identified based on its ability to bind H-2b molecules. Remarkably, Cripto-1 vaccination elicited a protective response against lung metastasis and subcutaneous challenges with highly metastatic B16F10 melanoma cells. Our data indicate that vaccination against Cripto-1 represents a novel strategy to be tested in the clinic.

  7. IRES: image retrieval expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu Sheng, Olivia R.; Wang, Hui-Chin; Garcia, Hong-Mei C.

    1990-08-01

    Image Retrieval Expert System (IRES), a knowledge-based system for automatic image retrieval, is being prototyped at the University of Arizona (U of A). IRES is to couple with the distributed database system designed for Structured PACS (S-PACS)1 to achieve the high system performance required by radiologists. IRES encompasses the "intelligence" of multiple expert radiologists. The system will predict and migrate the "old" images needed for comparison purposes during radiological exam readings from slower or remote storage devices to the local buffers of workstations. The use of IRES with the PACS Distributed Database System (DDBS) is expected to shorten the PACS system response time, save the time of radiologists in selecting films, minimize the turnaround time of the exam interpretation function, and increase diagnostic effectiveness by providing relevant images automatically. This paper presents the implementation details of this IRES prototype.

  8. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    PubMed

    Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-01

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies. PMID:23002786

  9. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    PubMed

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  10. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  11. The use of formal and informal expert judgments when interpreting data for performance assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Rechard, R.P.; Trauth, K.M.; Tierney, M.S.; Rath, J.S.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-31

    This paper discusses the general process by which data and information are compiled and used for defining modeling parameters. These modeling parameters are input for the mathematical models that are used in performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), near Carlsbad, NM, which is designed to safely manage, store, and dispose of transuranic radioactive wastes. The physical and temporal scales, and the difficulty of obtaining measurements in geologic media made interpretation of measured data, including the difficulty of obtaining measurements in geologic media make interpretation of measured data, including the difference between laboratory experiment scale and repository scale, important tasks. In most instances, standard scientific practices can ensure consistency of data use. To illustrate this point, an example is provided of the interpretation of field measurements of intrinsic permeability for use in computational models using the bootstrap technique. In some cases, sufficient information can never be collected, interpretation of the information is controversial, or information from diverse disciplines must be used. A procedure that formalizes the standard scientific practices under these conditions has been developed. An example is provided of how this procedure has been applied in eliciting expert judgments on markers to deter inadvertant human intrusion into the WIPP.

  12. Expert System For Heat Exchanger

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagby, D. Gordon; Cormier, Reginald A.

    1991-01-01

    Diagnosis simplified for non-engineers. Developmental expert-system computer program assists operator in controlling, monitoring operation, diagnosing malfunctions, and ordering repairs of heat-exchanger system dissipating heat generated by 20-kW radio transmitter. System includes not only heat exchanger but also pumps, fans, sensors, valves, reservoir, and associated plumbing. Program conceived to assist operator while avoiding cost of keeping engineer in full-time attendance. Similar programs developed for heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems.

  13. [Liability of the expert witness].

    PubMed

    Jansen, C

    1996-11-01

    Regarding the liability of the expert witness, is has to be differentiated between the responsibility according to the civil law and the criminal law. Responsibility in the criminal law means the punishableness for the guilty and illegal fulfillment of a criminal offense in the legal sense, while responsibility in the civil law means compensation towards another citizen. Criminal prosecution occurs ex officio. Prerequisite for prosecution in the civil law is an action of the victim. PMID:9064937

  14. Low level image segmentation: an expert system.

    PubMed

    Nazif, A M; Levine, M D

    1984-05-01

    A major problem in robotic vision is the segmentation of images of natural scenes in order to understand their content. This paper presents a new solution to the image segmentation problem that is based on the design of a rule-based expert system. General knowledge about low level properties of processes employ the rules to segment the image into uniform regions and connected lines. In addition to the knowledge rules, a set of control rules are also employed. These include metarules that embody inferences about the order in which the knowledge rules are matched. They also incorporate focus of attention rules that determine the path of processing within the image. Furthermore, an additional set of higher level rules dynamically alters the processing strategy. This paper discusses the structure and content of the knowledge and control rules for image segmentation. PMID:21869225

  15. Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a…

  16. Science Teachers' Elicitation Practices: Insights for Formative Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ateh, Comfort M.

    2015-01-01

    In evaluating teachers' instructional decisions during instruction, it is clear that the nature of their elicitation is crucial for student learning. When instructional decisions are informed by information about students' conceptual understanding, significant learning is possible. This article examined the elicitation practices of two high school…

  17. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

  18. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and physiological (heart…

  19. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  20. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  1. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-31

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  2. Effect of elicitation on growth, respiration, and nutrient uptake of root and cell suspension cultures of Hyoscyamus muticus.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Edgard B; Curtis, Wayne R

    2002-01-01

    The elicitation of Hyoscyamus muticus root and cell suspension cultures by fungal elicitor from Rhizoctonia solani causes dramatic changes in respiration, nutrient yields, and growth. Cells and mature root tissues have similar specific oxygen uptake rates (SOUR) before and after the onset of the elicitation process. Cell suspension SOUR were 11 and 18 micromol O2/g FW x h for non-elicited control and elicited cultures, respectively. Mature root SOUR were 11 and 24 micromol O2/g FW x h for control and elicited tissue, respectively. Tissue growth is significantly reduced upon the addition of elicitor to these cultures. Inorganic yield remains fairly constant, whereas yield on sugar is reduced from 0.532 to 0.352 g dry biomass per g sugar for roots and 0.614 to 0.440 g dry biomass per g sugar for cells. This reduction in yield results from increased energy requirements for the defense response. Growth reduction is reflected in a reduction in root meristem (tip) SOUR, which decreased from 189 to 70 micromol O2/g FW x h upon elicitation. Therefore, despite the increase in total respiration, the maximum local oxygen fluxes are reduced as a result of the reduction in metabolic activity at the meristem. This distribution of oxygen uptake throughout the mature tissue could reduce mass transfer requirements during elicited production. However, this was not found to be the case for sesquiterpene elicitation, where production of lubimin and solavetivone were found to increase linearly up to oxygen partial pressures of 40% O2 in air. SOUR is shown to similarly increase in both bubble column and tubular reactors despite severe mass transfer limitations, suggesting the possibility of metabolically induced increases in tissue convective transport during elicitation. PMID:11934297

  3. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm.

    PubMed

    Billari, Francesco C; Graziani, Rebecca; Melilli, Eugenio

    2014-10-01

    This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution: that is, fertility, mortality, and migration. Here, two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but rather is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. This article provides the questionnaire designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian population from 2010 to 2065 is proposed. PMID:25124024

  4. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  5. A middle man approach to knowledge acquisition in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, Janice A.; Lin, Min-Jin; Mayer, Richard J.; Sterle, Mark E.

    1990-01-01

    The Weed Control Advisor (WCA) is a robust expert system that has been successfully implemented on an IBM AT class microcomputer in CLIPS. The goal of the WCA was to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an economical, efficient, user friendly system through which Texas rice producers could obtain expert level knowledge regarding herbicide application for weed control. During the development phase of the WCA, an improved knowledge acquisition method which we call the Middle Man Approach (MMA) was applied to facilitate the communication process between the domain experts and the knowledge engineer. The MMA served to circumvent the problems associated with the more traditional forms of knowledge acquisition by placing the Middle Man, a semi-expert in the problem domain with some computer expertise, at the site of system development. The middle man was able to contribute to system development in two major ways. First, the Middle Man had experience working in rice production and could assume many of the responsibilities normally performed by the domain experts such as explaining the background of the problem domain and determining the important relations. Second, the Middle Man was familiar with computers and worked closely with the system developers to update the rules after the domain experts reviewed the prototype, contribute to the help menus and explanation portions of the expert system, conduct the testing that is required to insure that the expert system gives the expected results answer questions in a timely way, help the knowledge engineer structure the domain knowledge into a useable form, and provide insight into the end user's profile which helped in the development of the simple user friendly interface. The final results were not only that both time expended and costs were greatly reduced by using the MMA, but the quality of the system was improved. This papa will introduce the WCA system and then discuss traditional knowledge acquisition along with

  6. Expert stakeholder attitudes and support for alternative water sources in a groundwater depleted region.

    PubMed

    Boyer, Treavor H; Overdevest, Christine; Christiansen, Lisa; Ishii, Stephanie K L

    2012-10-15

    The main objectives of this research were to quantify the risks/benefits and impacts of alternative water sources (AWSs) as perceived by expert stakeholders and to evaluate the overall support for multiple AWSs by expert stakeholders. The St. Johns River (SJR) basin, FL, USA was chosen as a case study for AWSs because it is a fresh groundwater depleted region and there are ongoing activities related to water supply planning. Expert stakeholders included federal, state, and local governments, public utilities, consulting engineering and industry, and environmental and social non-governmental organizations. AWSs under consideration in the SJR basin include surface water, desalination, water reclamation, and water conservation. A two-phase research approach was followed that focused on expert stakeholders. First, an elicitation study was used to identify salient beliefs about AWSs. Open-ended questions were asked about the risks/benefits of AWSs in terms of the three pillars of sustainability: ecological, economic, and human health impacts. Second, an online survey was constructed using beliefs identified during the elicitation study. The online survey was used to quantify attitudes toward and overall support for AWSs. The salient beliefs of expert stakeholders were dominated by the ecological pillar of sustainability. The support of expert stakeholders for AWSs, from least favorable to most favorable, was surface water withdrawals

  7. Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

  8. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Expert witnesses. 511.44 Section 511.44 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADJUDICATIVE PROCEDURES Hearings § 511.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who,...

  9. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Expert witnesses. 511.44 Section 511.44 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADJUDICATIVE PROCEDURES Hearings § 511.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who,...

  10. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony either in private litigation or in litigation... personnel will not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony concerning official...). An SJA or legal adviser is authorized to deny a request for expert testimony, which decision may...

  11. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the Presiding Officer, the direct testimony of an expert witness shall be in writing and shall be filed on the record and exchanged... testimony of an expert witness shall be incorporated into the record and shall constitute the...

  12. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be... testimony of an expert witness shall be filed on the record and exchanged between the parties no later than... testimony of an expert witness shall not include points not contained in the written statement. A party...

  13. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert discovery. 1081.210 Section 1081.210... Initiation of Proceedings and Prehearing Rules § 1081.210 Expert discovery. (a) At a date set by the hearing... requirement of expert discovery in appropriate cases....

  14. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44... PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience, or profession, has peculiar knowledge concerning the subject matter...

  15. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Expert witnesses. 511.44 Section 511.44 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADJUDICATIVE PROCEDURES Hearings § 511.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who,...

  16. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience,...

  17. What Is An Expert System? ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boss, Richard W.

    This digest describes and defines the various components of an expert system, e.g., a computerized tool designed to enhance the quality and availability of knowledge required by decision makers. It is noted that expert systems differ from conventional applications software in the following areas: (1) the existence of the expert systems shell, or…

  18. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  19. Expert Meeting Report. Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    The NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership held an expert meeting on Foundations–Research Results on November 15, 2011, in Minneapolis, MN. Audience participation was actively encouraged during each presentation to uncover needs and promote dialog among researchers and industry professionals. Key results were: greater understanding of the role of moisture transport through foundation and insulation materials and its potential impact on building durability; greater understanding of the role of foundation type in the process of selecting an insulation system for energy performance and building durability; need for research to quantify the risks associated with insulation processes to better enable users to weigh costs and benefits against the existing conditions of a home; need for improved performance modeling capabilities that address variations in foundation types and soil conditions.

  20. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  1. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  2. Expert witness testimony guidelines: identifying areas for improvement.

    PubMed

    Svider, Peter F; Eloy, Jean Anderson; Baredes, Soly; Setzen, Michael; Folbe, Adam J

    2015-02-01

    Expert witnesses play an invaluable, if controversial, role by deciphering medical events for juries in cases of alleged negligence. We review expert witness guidelines among major surgical societies and identify gaps within these standards, as our hope is that this spurs discussion addressing areas for improvement. Of 8 surgical societies with accessible guidelines, none included specific compensation guidelines or limits, detailed reporting mechanisms regarding unethical behavior by legal professionals, or addressed the appropriateness of testifying frequently and exclusively for one side. Several processes possibly deterring grossly inaccurate testimony have been adopted by other surgical societies and should potentially be addressed by the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery. These include offering an expert witness testimony certification path, strengthening the formalized grievance process, and encouraging members to sign an affirmation statement. PMID:25389319

  3. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller on-line for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  4. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller online for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  5. Expert-novice differences in SMR activity during dart throwing.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Ming-Yang; Hung, Chiao-Ling; Huang, Chung-Ju; Chang, Yu-Kai; Lo, Li-Chuan; Shen, Cheng; Hung, Tsung-Min

    2015-09-01

    Previous evidence suggests that augmented sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) activity is related to the superior regulation of processing cognitive-motor information in motor performance. However, no published studies have examined the relationship between SMR and performance in precision sports; thus, this study examined the relationship between SMR activity and the level of skilled performance in tasks requiring high levels of attention (e.g., dart throwing). We hypothesized that skilled performance would be associated with higher SMR activity. Fourteen dart-throwing experts and eleven novices were recruited. Participants were requested to perform 60 dart throws while EEG was recorded. The 2(Group: Expert, Novice)×2(Time window: -2000 ms to -1000 ms, -1000 ms to 0 ms) ANOVA showed that the dart-throwing experts maintained a relatively higher SMR power than the novices before dart release. These results suggest that SMR might reflect the adaptive regulation of cognitive-motor processing during the preparatory period. PMID:26277266

  6. Chinese characters elicit face-like N170 inversion effects.

    PubMed

    Wang, Man-Ying; Kuo, Bo-Cheng; Cheng, Shih-Kuen

    2011-12-01

    Recognition of both faces and Chinese characters is commonly believed to rely on configural information. While faces typically exhibit behavioral and N170 inversion effects that differ from non-face stimuli (Rossion, Joyce, Cottrell, & Tarr, 2003), the current study examined whether a similar reliance on configural processing may result in similar inversion effects for faces and Chinese characters. Participants were engaged in an orientation judgment task (Experiment 1) and a one-back identity matching task (Experiment 2). Across two experiments, the N170 was delayed and enhanced in magnitude for upside-down faces and compound Chinese characters, compared to upright stimuli. The inversion effects for these two stimulus categories were bilateral for latency and right-lateralized for amplitudes. For simple Chinese characters, only the latency inversion effects were significant. Moreover, the size of the right-hemisphere inversion effects in N170 amplitude was larger for faces than Chinese characters. These findings show the N170 inversion effects from non-face stimuli closely parallel effects seen with faces. Face-like N170 inversion effects elicited by Chinese compound characters were attributed to the difficulty of part-whole integration as well as the disrupted regularity in relational information due to inversion. Hemispheric difference in Chinese character processing is also discussed. PMID:21944865

  7. Embedding Human Expert Cognition Into Autonomous UAS Trajectory Planning.

    PubMed

    Narayan, Pritesh; Meyer, Patrick; Campbell, Duncan

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach for the inclusion of human expert cognition into autonomous trajectory planning for unmanned aerial systems (UASs) operating in low-altitude environments. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist; therefore, the use of multicriteria decision aid techniques can potentially allow for convergence to trajectory solutions which better reflect overall mission requirements. In that context, additive multiattribute value theory has been applied to optimize trajectories with respect to multiple objectives. A graphical user interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human decision maker (HDM) through simulated decision scenarios. The expert decision data gathered are converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using utility additive theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM data within an automated decision system allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM decision preferences. This approach has been demonstrated in this paper through simulation using a fixed-wing UAS operating in low-altitude environments. PMID:22949071

  8. A neural network hybrid expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Goulding, J.R. . Dept. of Mechanical Engineering)

    1991-01-01

    When knowledge-based expert rules, equations, and proprietary languages extend Computer Aided Design and Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAD CAM) software, previously designed mechanisms can be scaled to satisfy new design requirements in the shortest time. However, embedded design alternatives needed by design engineers during the product conception and rework stages are lacking, and an operator is required who has a thorough understanding of the intended design and the how-to expertise needed to create and optimize the mechanisms. By applying neural network technology to build an expert system, a robust design supervisor system emerged which automated the embedded intellectual operations (e.g. questioning, identifying, selecting, and coordinating the design process) to (1) select the best mechanisms necessary to design a power transmission gearbox from proven solutions; (2) aid the inexperienced operator in developing complex design solutions; and (3) provide design alternatives which add back-to-the-drawing board capabilities to knowledge-based mechanical CAD/CAM software programs. 15 refs., 2 figs.

  9. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  10. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-03-14

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  11. CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hentea, Mariana

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

  12. Expert critical care nurses' use of pulmonary artery pressure monitoring.

    PubMed

    Aitken, L M

    2000-08-01

    Critical care nurses make numerous complex decisions during their day-to-day practice. General themes in previous decision-making studies have included the influence of knowledge and previous experience, the increasing complexity of decisions made and the change in decision-making processes used as the nurse progresses from a novice to an expert practitioner. This paper reports one component of a study which used a concept attainment framework to determine what data were used by eight expert critical care nurses in relation to haemodynamic monitoring. Results indicated that pulmonary artery pressure monitoring was used to attain the concepts of preload, cardiac output and blood pressure. In addition, participants used few clinical assessment attributes, but collected a large number of attributes which they arranged around three to five central concepts and took a broad view of haemodynamic assessment. One participant did not display many of the decision-making features normally associated with an expert practitioner. In conclusion, expert critical care nurses process an immense amount of data in a short space of time. However, they may not use all available data. Evidence suggests not all nurses who practise in the field for a lengthy period reach the level of an expert. PMID:10922186

  13. Formalization and representation of expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tausner, M.R.

    1986-01-01

    Based on a critical analysis of the canonical forms of expert systems, definitions of classical forward-chaining production rule-based expert systems and classical backward-chaining production rule based expert systems are isolated as the fundamental basic definitions of an expert system. Two representation theorems are presented for the two fundamental types of expert systems defined. Both the classical forward-chaining production rule based expert systems and classical backward chaining production rule based expert systems are shown to be representable as type 3 languages (finite state automata). The pragmatic usefulness of the finite state representation of an expert system is established in the design of a multilevel expert system for general systems problems solving. A type 3 language is used to encapsulate the knowledge base and reasoning strategies of the front-end of the expert system, thus representing the front-end as a deterministic finite automation. This provides a new approach to the problem of interfacing multilevel expert systems.

  14. Risk management and expert system development methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hull, Larry; Gilstrap, Lewey

    1991-01-01

    A risk-based expert-system development methodology has been developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and to serve as a standard for developing expert systems. Expert-system development differs from conventional software development in that the information needed to prepare system requirements for expert systems is not known at the outset of a project and is obtained by knowledge engineering methods. The paper describes the expert-system life cycle, development methodology, and the approach taken in this methodology to manage and reduce the risks in expert system development. Also examined are the risks of using and of not using a methodology, the studies undertaken to validate the provisions of the expert system development methodology, and the results of these validation studies.

  15. Differentiating experts' anticipatory skills in beach volleyball.

    PubMed

    Cañal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J P

    2011-12-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos of attack sequences that were occluded at three different times and to predict the outcome of these situations. Results showed that expert players and coaches (who were both perceptual-motor experts) outperformed the expert referees (who were watching experts but did not have the same motor expertise) and the control group in the latest occlusion condition (i.e., at spiker-ball contact). This finding suggests that perceptual-motor expertise may contribute to successful action anticipation in beach volleyball. PMID:22276408

  16. The Expert Witness in Medical Malpractice Litigation

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Physicians may find serving as an expert witness to be interesting, intellectually stimulating, and financially beneficial. However, potential expert witnesses should be aware of the increased legal scrutiny being applied to expert witness testimony in medical malpractice litigation. In the past, expert witnesses received absolute immunity from civil litigation regarding their testimony. This is no longer the case. Expert witnesses may be subject to disciplinary sanctions from professional organizations and state medical boards. In addition, emerging case law is defining the legal duty owed by the expert witness to the litigating parties. Orthopaedic surgeons who serve as expert witnesses should be familiar with the relevant Standards of Professionalism issued by the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. PMID:19052827

  17. Expert system for groundwater modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Venoge, T.P. de; Stauffer, T.B.; Medina, M.; Jacobs, T.

    1994-12-31

    Hazardous waste site remedial investigations and feasibility studies generally involve some degree of groundwater modeling. A plethora of models exist and most models are difficult to use. An expert system has been developed to lead the user to the appropriate model(s) based on responses to questions about site conditions and data availability. The system is menu driven, user friendly, and provides assistance in estimating input parameters where field measurements are lacking. The system contains twelve models, both analytical and numerical models, that are in the public domain. Some of the models included in the system are MOC, MODFLOW, BIOPLUME, RESSQ, TDAST and PLUME2D. Preprocessors and post processors have been written to permit easy data input and to provide understandable and interpretable data output. There are two versions of the expert system that are available. One version is a UNIX based system that works through the windows environment and provides excellent graphics capabilities. The other version is DOS based and will run on a 386 processor or higher system with 10 megabytes of available hard disk space.

  18. StarPower: Elevating Prospective Student Interest through Expert and Celebrity Endorsements--Relevant Message, Relevant Media

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucciarone, Kristy

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates how universities can increase the effectiveness of the search process by featuring in their advertisements expert and celebrity endorsers who attended the institution. How can universities gain the attention of prospective students using the star power of experts and celebrities? Experts and celebrities promoting a…

  19. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--legal evaluation of medical expert opinion].

    PubMed

    Schlund, G H

    1996-11-01

    The constitutional position of the judge and the medical expert witness during a lawsuit is explained. From this, the demands on a judicial expert witness for the preparation of his expert assessment are derived and the judge's function in the appointment of the expert witness is explained. Additionally, criteria, duties, and rules are worked out, which should be followed by the judge during assessment of the medical expert testimony. PMID:9064930

  20. The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Matching: Experts Can Do a Lot with a Little

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Matthew B.; Tangen, Jason M.

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of “information” available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect—experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints—but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony

  1. NASA ground terminal communication equipment automated fault isolation expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Y. K.; Wetzel, C. R.

    1990-01-01

    The prototype expert systems are described that diagnose the Distribution and Switching System I and II (DSS1 and DSS2), Statistical Multiplexers (SM), and Multiplexer and Demultiplexer systems (MDM) at the NASA Ground Terminal (NGT). A system level fault isolation expert system monitors the activities of a selected data stream, verifies that the fault exists in the NGT and identifies the faulty equipment. Equipment level fault isolation expert systems are invoked to isolate the fault to a Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) level. Input and sometimes output data stream activities for the equipment are available. The system level fault isolation expert system compares the equipment input and output status for a data stream and performs loopback tests (if necessary) to isolate the faulty equipment. The equipment level fault isolation system utilizes the process of elimination and/or the maintenance personnel's fault isolation experience stored in its knowledge base. The DSS1, DSS2 and SM fault isolation systems, using the knowledge of the current equipment configuration and the equipment circuitry issues a set of test connections according to the predefined rules. The faulty component or board can be identified by the expert system by analyzing the test results. The MDM fault isolation system correlates the failure symptoms with the faulty component based on maintenance personnel experience. The faulty component can be determined by knowing the failure symptoms. The DSS1, DSS2, SM, and MDM equipment simulators are implemented in PASCAL. The DSS1 fault isolation expert system was converted to C language from VP-Expert and integrated into the NGT automation software for offline switch diagnoses. Potentially, the NGT fault isolation algorithms can be used for the DSS1, SM, amd MDM located at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).

  2. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain

    PubMed Central

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define “expertise” from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of “pure” mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

  3. Automated Tools for Subject Matter Expert Evaluation of Automated Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williamson, David M.; Bejar, Isaac I.; Sax, Anne

    2004-01-01

    As automated scoring of complex constructed-response examinations reaches operational status, the process of evaluating the quality of resultant scores, particularly in contrast to scores of expert human graders, becomes as complex as the data itself. Using a vignette from the Architectural Registration Examination (ARE), this article explores the…

  4. [The analytical-synthesizing part of an expert judgment].

    PubMed

    Ardashkin, A P; Zhigalkin, A V; Ponomarev, E V

    2014-01-01

    The present article provides the rationale for the necessity of introduction of a special analytical-synthesizing part in the expert judgment. It must characterize the process of cognitive operations in the course of forensic medical expertises and thereby ensure conditions for the adequate verification and assessment of the quality of the expertise. PMID:25764879

  5. Siblings and Buddies: Providing Expert Advice about Starting School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dockett, Sue; Perry, Bob

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of child experts (siblings and buddies) in young children's transition to school. Drawing on two recent studies, that sought the perspectives of children, educators and family members about effective supports at this time, we explore the roles of other children in the processes and practices of transition.…

  6. The Metamorphosis of Industrial Designers from Novices to Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Ju-Joan; Chen, Po-Yu; Chen, Chun-Di

    2016-01-01

    Professional training for designers is crucial in the field of design studies. The characteristics of novices versus those of expert designers have been identified in the literature; however, studies exploring the issue of professional training processes in the actual workplace are not well developed. Our study addresses the topic by using…

  7. Analysis assessment expert system for gas chromatography

    SciTech Connect

    Elling, J.W.; Roberts, R.S.; Lahiri, S.

    1995-12-01

    An artificial intelligence based analysis assessment system is presented to automate gas chromatography instrument troubleshooting. This system is capable of recognizing symptoms of common problems with GC analysis, reasoning with the symptoms to make a problem diagnosis, and suggest appropriate solutions. In this system, signal processing techniques are used to search for symptoms of problems in the time-series data. For example, peak shapes are analyzed for fronting and tailing and the baseline is analyzed for drift and the presence of electronic spikes. A measurement of the severity of each symptom is then used by the expert system to diagnose potential problems with the analysis. This system will be integrated with the instrument control and laboratory automation that is necessary to effect the recommended solutions when possible. The result will be a more robust instrument capable of recognizing failures and error modes from the sample data and capable of correcting many of the common failures.

  8. Program for Experimentation With Expert Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engle, S. W.

    1986-01-01

    CERBERUS is forward-chaining, knowledge-based system program useful for experimentation with expert systems. Inference-engine mechanism performs deductions according to user-supplied rule set. Information stored in intermediate area, and user interrogated only when no applicable data found in storage. Each assertion posed by CERBERUS answered with certainty ranging from 0 to 100 percent. Rule processor stops investigating applicable rules when goal reaches certainty of 95 percent or higher. Capable of operating for wide variety of domains. Sample rule files included for animal identification, pixel classification in image processing, and rudimentary car repair for novice mechanic. User supplies set of end goals or actions. System complexity decided by user's rule file. CERBERUS written in FORTRAN 77.

  9. SIDES - Segment Interconnect Diagnostic Expert System

    SciTech Connect

    Booth, A.W.; Forster, R.; Gustafsson, L.; Ho, N.

    1989-02-01

    It is well known that the FASTBUS Segment Interconnect (SI) provides a communication path between two otherwise independent, asynchronous bus segments. The SI is probably the most important module in any FASTBUS data acquisition network since it's failure to function can cause whole segments of the network to be inaccessible and sometimes inoperable. This paper describes SIDES, an intelligent program designed to diagnose SI's both in situ as they operate in a data acquisition network, and in the laboratory in an acceptance/repair environment. The paper discusses important issues such as knowledge acquisition; extracting knowledge from human experts and other knowledge sources. SIDES can benefit high energy physics experiments, where SI problems can be diagnosed and solved more quickly. Equipment pool technicians can also benefit from SIDES, first by decreasing the number of SI's erroneously turned in for repair, and secondly as SIDES acts as an intelligent assistant to the technician in the diagnosis and repair process.

  10. Expert-System Consultant To Operating Personnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heard, Astrid E.; Pinkowski, Patrick P.; Adler, Richard M.; Hosken, R. Bruce

    1992-01-01

    Artificial intelligence aids engineers and technicians in controlling and monitoring complicated systems. Operations Analyst for Distributed Systems (OPERA) software is developmental suite of expert-system computer programs helping engineers and technicians operating from number of computer workstations to control and monitor spacecraft during prelaunch and launch phases of operation. OPERA designed to serve as consultant to operating engineers and technicians. It preprocesses incoming data, using expertise collected from conglomerate of specialists in design and operation of various parts of system. Driven by menus and mouse-activated commands. Modified versions of OPERA used in chemical-processing plants, factories, banks, and other enterprises in which there are distributed-computer systems including computers that monitor or control other computers.

  11. EMCASS: Expert Motor Carrier Selection System

    SciTech Connect

    Teeters, S.W.

    1991-03-13

    The Expert Motor Carrier Selection System (EMCASS) was designed as a Knowledge-Based System to help in traffic management at Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. (Energy Systems). The primary function of the system is to suggest the optimal motor carrier(s) for a given freight shipment to or from Energy Systems. The system accepts a zip code (destination or origin) from the user, a shipment weight, and other related information in some cases. EMCASS then suggests the best carrier for that shipment, and journals the results. The objective of this project is to distribute the knowledge of the company`s traffic managers, and to emulate their decision processes as closely as possible.

  12. YUCSA: A CLIPS expert database system to monitor academic performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toptsis, Anestis A.; Ho, Frankie; Leindekar, Milton; Foon, Debra Low; Carbonaro, Mike

    1991-01-01

    The York University CLIPS Student Administrator (YUCSA), an expert database system implemented in C Language Integrated Processing System (CLIPS), for monitoring the academic performance of undergraduate students at York University, is discussed. The expert system component in the system has already been implemented for two major departments, and it is under testing and enhancement for more departments. Also, more elaborate user interfaces are under development. We describe the design and implementation of the system, problems encountered, and immediate future plans. The system has excellent maintainability and it is very efficient, taking less than one minute to complete an assessment of one student.

  13. An expert system that performs a satellite station keepimg maneuver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linesbrowning, M. Kate; Stone, John L., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The development and characteristics of a prototype expert system, Expert System for Satellite Orbit Control (ESSOC), capable of providing real-time spacecraft system analysis and command generation for a geostationary satellite are described. The ESSOC recommends appropriate commands that reflect both the changing spacecraft condition and previous procedural action. An internal knowledge base stores satellite status information and is updated with processed spacecraft telemetry. Procedural structure data are encoded in production rules. Structural methods of knowledge acquisition and the design and performance-enhancing techniques that enable ESSOC to operate in real time are also considered.

  14. Neural network based expert system for compressor stall monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.; Shi, G. Z.

    1991-01-01

    This research is designed to apply a new information processing technology, artificial neural networks, to monitoring compressor stall. The outputs of neural networks support the dynamic knowledge data base of an expert system. This is the open-loop mode to avoid compressor stall. The integration of a control system with neural networks is the closed-loop mode in stall avoidance. The feasibility of the concept has been demonstrated for the compressor of 16-foot transonic/supersonic propulsion wind tunnels. The construction of a prototpye expert system has been initiated.

  15. [Swan Ganz catheter. Experts opinion].

    PubMed

    Cohen Arazi, Hernán; Nani, Sebastián; Giorgi, Mariano; Guardiani, Fernando; Caturla, Nicolás; Benzadón, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Investigators have raised doubts as to the safety of the Swan Ganz catheter (SGC). In order to define the point of view of cardiologists in our country, the Argentine Society of Cardiology's Emergency Council organized a meeting to analyze their views in different settings (non-cardiac surgery, cardiac surgery, acute coronary syndromes and heart failure) using the RAND-UCLA appropriateness method. A detailed review with the scientific evidence was sent to the experts in cardiology prior to the meeting in the SAC auditorium where the panellists selected the clinical variables create the specific situations. These hypothetic situations were resent to the panellists at a second stage for their individual evaluation, rating the benefit-to-harm ratio of the procedure on a scale of 1 to 9 (1 meant that the expected harms greatly outweighed the expected benefits, and 9 that the expected benefits greatly outweighed the expected harms, 5 could mean either that the harms and benefits were roughly equal). Two experts analyzed the results, describing the agreement/disagreement ratio. Finally, each indication was classified as "appropriate" "uncertain" or "inappropriate" ,for the procedure in accordance with the panelists' median score: median scores in the 1-3 range were classified as inappropriate, those in the 4-6 range as uncertain, and those in the 7-9 range as appropriate. We observed high disagreement rates in SGC indications between cardiologists. However, the panelists were in favor of SGC use when situations included shock and myocardial dysfunction, especially in the presence of organic dysfunction. There were some situations when panelists considered SGC not useful, in patients without organ failure. PMID:25188663

  16. Evaluation of expert system application based on usability aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munaiseche, C. P. C.; Liando, O. E. S.

    2016-04-01

    Usability usually defined as a point of human acceptance to a product or a system based on understands and right reaction to an interface. The performance of web application has been influence by the quality of the interface of that web to supporting information transfer process. Preferably, before the applications of expert systems were installed in the operational environment, these applications must be evaluated first by usability testing. This research aimed to measure the usability of the expert system application using tasks as interaction media. This study uses an expert system application to diagnose skin disease in human using questionnaire method which utilize the tasks as interaction media in measuring the usability. Certain tasks were executed by the participants in observing usability value of the application. The usability aspects observed were learnability, efficiency, memorability, errors, and satisfaction. Each questionnaire question represent aspects of usability. The results present the usability value for each aspect and the total average merit for all the five-usability aspect was 4.28, this indicated that the tested expert system application is in the range excellent for the usability level, so the application can be implemented as the operated system by user. The main contribution of the study is the research became the first step in using task model in the usability evaluation for the expert system application software.

  17. Refinement of the HEPAR expert system: tools and techniques.

    PubMed

    Lucas, P

    1994-04-01

    Methods and tools for the static and dynamic verification and validation of software systems are commonplace in the field of software engineering. In the field of expert systems, where it is more difficult to ensure that a system meets the specifications and expectations than in traditional software engineering, such tools are generally not available. In this paper, the need for more support of the development process by methods and tools is illustrated by the approach taken in building the HEPAR system, a rule-based expert system that can be used as a supportive tool in the diagnosis of disorders of the liver and biliary tract. At a certain stage in the development of this system an incremental development methodology has been adopted, in which implementation of parts of the expert system was followed by dynamic validation. For this purpose, a collection of software tools were implemented as extensions to a rule-based expert-system shell. These tools provide valuable information about the effects of modification of the HEPAR knowledge base, and indicate places in the knowledge base for refinement. It is believed that similar software tools may prove helpful in the development of other expert systems as well. PMID:8049756

  18. Analyzing patterns in experts' approaches to solving experimental problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Čančula, Maja Poklinek; Planinšič, Gorazd; Etkina, Eugenia

    2015-04-01

    We report detailed observations of three pairs of expert scientists and a pair of advanced undergraduate students solving an experimental optics problem. Using a new method ("transition graphs") of visualizing sequences of logical steps, we were able to compare the groups and identify patterns that could not be found using previously existing methods. While the problem solving of undergraduates significantly differed from that of experts at the beginning of the process, it gradually became more similar to the expert problem solving. We mapped problem solving steps and their sequence to the elements of an approach to teaching and learning physics called Investigative Science Learning Environment (ISLE), and we speculate that the ISLE educational framework closely represents the actual work of physicists.

  19. Web-based expert system for foundry pollution prevention

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.

    2004-02-01

    Pollution prevention is a complex task. Many small foundries lack the in-house expertise to perform these tasks. Expert systems are a type of computer information system that incorporates artificial intelligence. As noted in the literature, they provide a means of automating specialized expertise. This approach may be further leveraged by implementing the expert system on the internet (or world-wide web). This will allow distribution of the expertise to a variety of geographically-dispersed foundries. The purpose of this research is to develop a prototype web-based expert system to support pollution prevention for the foundry industry. The prototype system identifies potential emissions for a specified process, and also provides recommendations for the prevention of these contaminants. The system is viewed as an initial step toward assisting the foundry industry in better meeting government pollution regulations, as well as improving operating efficiencies within these companies.

  20. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.