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Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison

    SciTech Connect

    Dalton, Angela C.; Brothers, Alan J.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Whitney, Paul D.

    2010-09-21

    Research on integrative modeling has gained considerable attention in recent years and expert opinion has been increasingly recognized as an important data source and modeling contributor. However, little research has systematically compared and evaluated expert elicitation methods in terms of their ability to link to computational models that capture human behavior and social phenomena. In this paper, we describe a decision-making process we used for evaluating and selecting a task specific elicitation method within the framework of integrative computational social-behavioral modeling. From the existing literature, we identified the characteristics of problems that each candidate method is well suited to address. A small-scale expert elicitation was also conducted to evaluate the comparative strength and weaknesses of the methods against a number of consensus-based decision criteria. By developing a set of explicit method evaluation criteria and a description characterizing decision problems for the candidate methods, we seek to gain a better understanding of the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of integrating elicitation methods with computational modeling techniques. This serves an important first step toward expanding our research effort and trajectory toward greater interdisciplinary modeling research of human behavior.

  2. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  3. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ...2010-0005; Sequence 14] Draft Concept for Government-Wide ``ExpertNet'' Platform and...Public Participation in Response to Government Questions AGENCY: U.S. General Services...next-generation citizen consultation, namely a government- wide software tool and process...

  4. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  5. Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

    PubMed

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C; Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty. PMID:26610972

  6. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert judgment has led to an improved acceptance of expert judgment because of the rigor and transparency of the results.

  7. January, 2012 "Expert Elicitation of the Value

    E-print Network

    avoided deaths. A comprehensive characterization of uncertainty in both of these elements is therefore (EE) to improve the characterization of uncertainty about avoided deaths through elicitationK9. January 2012 #12;Abstract The monetized value of avoided premature mortality typically dominates

  8. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  9. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  10. Expert elicitation for the judgment of prion disease risk uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; ElSaadany, Susie; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Catford, Angela; Krewski, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding the potential for iatrogenic prion transmission through transplantation, medical instrument reuse, blood transfusion, and blood product use due to a lack of evidence-based research on this important risk issue. A group of specialists was enlisted to evaluate some of the knowledge gaps in this area using the "Classical Model," a structured elicitation procedure for weighting and pooling expert judgment. The elicitation exercise was undertaken in March 2009 with 11 transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) experts who were first calibrated using a series of seed questions for which the answers are known; they were then asked to answer a number of target questions that are important for risk assessment purposes, but for which there remains high uncertainty at this time. The target questions focused on variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) prevalence, incubation times for vCJD, genetic susceptibility to prion disease, blood infectivity, prion reduction of blood and blood products, surgical instrument risks, and interspecies transmission of TSEs. The experts were also asked to perform pairwise risk rankings for 12 different potential routes of infection. Dura mater transplantation was seen as having the highest risk, while dental tissue grafts were viewed as presenting the lowest risk of iatrogenic transmission. The structured elicitation procedure provides a rational, auditable, and repeatable basis for obtaining useful information on prion disease risk issues, for which data are sparse. PMID:21218351

  11. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite some known criticism on its validity, formal expert elicitation can support environmental health research in various ways. Its main purpose is to provide a temporary summary of the limited available knowledge, which can serve as a provisional basis for policy until further research has been carried out. PMID:20420657

  12. Preliminary results of an expert-opinion elicitation process to prioritize an informative system funded by Italian Ministry of Health for cadaveric donor management, organ allocation, and transplantation activity.

    PubMed

    Santori, G; Valente, R; Cambiaso, F; Ghirelli, R; Gianelli Castiglione, A; Valente, U

    2004-04-01

    Expert-opinion elicitation (EOE) is a heuristic process for gathering evidence and data or answering questions on issues/problems of concern. The Delphi method (DM) is the most frequent technique used to obtain structured elicitation of expert opinions. It has been increasingly applied in medicine to produce guidelines and to evaluate the appropriateness of diagnostic procedures. In this study, a DM has been used as structured EOE process to assess the appropriateness and clinical priority of a data set-based informative system in the context of the Liguria-Trento Transplant Network (LTTN) Project, funded by Italian Ministry of Health. The original data set was obtained by using an interdisciplinary pool of regional experts (n = 60). This data set held 1506 items stratified in 21 categories at various surgical phases (preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative) and transplantation types (liver, kidney, and kidney/pancreas) in adult and pediatric recipients. Some categories included cadaveric donor management, organ allocation, and acute liver failure. In the second DM round, the data set was subjected to a panel of extraregional, independent experts (n = 9) to assess scores ranging from 1 to 9 on each item, based on increasing appropriateness/priority, according to RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method. The overall agreement between experts was 95.88%, whereas disagreement and uncertainty were 0.13% and 3.98%, respectively. A major uncertainty occurred for the data set concerning the multiorgan cadaveric donor, for liver transplantation, and for kidney transplantation in adult recipients. The use of a structured EOE process may represent an effective strategy to define the appropriateness and prioritization criteria of a large data set in the field of solid organ transplantation. PMID:15110546

  13. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of elicitation methodology and the implications of our results for further work at the BGS to quantify uncertainty in 2d and 3d products. In particular we will consider the impacts of surveyor 'experience' in how the elicitation process works.

  14. Classification of Listeria monocytogenes persistence in retail delicatessen environments using expert elicitation and machine learning.

    PubMed

    Vangay, P; Steingrimsson, J; Wiedmann, M; Stasiewicz, M J

    2014-10-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that persistence of Listeria monocytogenes in food processing plants has been the underlying cause of a number of human listeriosis outbreaks. This study extracts criteria used by food safety experts in determining bacterial persistence in the environment, using retail delicatessen operations as a model. Using the Delphi method, we conducted an expert elicitation with 10 food safety experts from academia, industry, and government to classify L. monocytogenes persistence based on environmental sampling results collected over six months for 30 retail delicatessen stores. The results were modeled using variations of random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, and linear regression; variable importance values of random forest and support vector machine models were consolidated to rank important variables in the experts' classifications. The duration of subtype isolation ranked most important across all expert categories. Sampling site category also ranked high in importance and validation errors doubled when this covariate was removed. Support vector machine and random forest models successfully classified the data with average validation errors of 3.1% and 2.2% (n = 144), respectively. Our findings indicate that (i) the frequency of isolations over time and sampling site information are critical factors for experts determining subtype persistence, (ii) food safety experts from different sectors may not use the same criteria in determining persistence, and (iii) machine learning models have potential for future use in environmental surveillance and risk management programs. Future work is necessary to validate the accuracy of expert and machine classification against biological measurement of L. monocytogenes persistence. PMID:24888445

  15. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

  16. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  17. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods. PMID:26610964

  18. Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

    SciTech Connect

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

    1996-11-01

    Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE`s license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE`s experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC`s geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs.

  19. A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models.

    PubMed

    Kuhnert, Petra M; Martin, Tara G; Griffiths, Shane P

    2010-07-01

    Expert knowledge in ecology is gaining momentum as a tool for conservation decision-making where data are lacking. Yet, little information is available to help a researcher decide whether expert opinion is useful for their model, how an elicitation should be conducted, what the most relevant method for elicitation is and how this can be translated into prior distributions for analysis in a Bayesian model. In this study, we provide guidance in using expert knowledge in a transparent and credible manner to inform ecological models and ultimately natural resource and conservation decision-making. We illustrate the decisions faced when considering the use of expert knowledge in a model with the help of two real ecological case studies. These examples are explored further to examine the impact of expert knowledge through 'priors' in Bayesian modeling and specifically how to minimize potential bias. Finally, we make recommendations on the use of expert opinion in ecology. We believe if expert knowledge is elicited and incorporated into ecological models with the same level of rigour provided in the collection and use of empirical data, expert knowledge can increase the precision of models and facilitate informed decision-making in a cost-effective manner. PMID:20497209

  20. EXPERT ELICITATION OF ACROSS-TECHNOLOGY CORRELATIONS FOR REACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

    SciTech Connect

    Brent Dixon; Various

    2014-06-01

    Calculations of the uncertainty in the Levelized Cost at Equilibrium (LCAE) of generating nuclear electricity typically assume that the costs of the system component, notably reactors, are uncorrelated. Partial cancellation of independent errors thus gives rise to unrealistically small cost uncertainties for fuel cycles that incorporate multiple reactor technologies. This summary describes an expert elicitation of correlations between overnight reactor construction costs. It also defines a method for combining the elicitations into a single, consistent correlation matrix suitable for use in Monte Carlo LCAE calculations. Both the elicitation and uncertainty propagation methods are demonstrated through a pilot study where cost correlations between eight reactor technologies were elicited from experts in the US DOE Fuel Cycle Research

  1. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  2. Elicitation of Expert Prior Opinion: Application to the MYPAN Trial in Childhood Polyarteritis Nodosa

    PubMed Central

    Hampson, Lisa V.; Whitehead, John; Eleftheriou, Despina; Tudur-Smith, Catrin; Jones, Rachel; Jayne, David; Hickey, Helen; Beresford, Michael W.; Bracaglia, Claudia; Caldas, Afonso; Cimaz, Rolando; Dehoorne, Joke; Dolezalova, Pavla; Friswell, Mark; Jelusic, Marija; Marks, Stephen D.; Martin, Neil; McMahon, Anne-Marie; Peitz, Joachim; van Royen-Kerkhof, Annet; Soylemezoglu, Oguz; Brogan, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa). Methods A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis. Results A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available. Conclusions We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases. PMID:25822991

  3. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  4. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  5. Expert elicitation of the value per statistical life in an air pollution context.

    PubMed

    Roman, Henry A; Hammitt, James K; Walsh, Tyra L; Stieb, David M

    2012-12-01

    The monetized value of avoided premature mortality typically dominates the calculated benefits of air pollution regulations; therefore, characterization of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates is key to good policymaking. Formal expert judgment elicitation methods are one means of characterizing this uncertainty. They have been applied to characterize uncertainty in the mortality concentration-response function, but have yet to be used to characterize uncertainty in the economic values placed on avoided mortality. We report the findings of a pilot expert judgment study for Health Canada designed to elicit quantitative probabilistic judgments of uncertainties in Value-per-Statistical-Life (VSL) estimates for use in an air pollution context. The two-stage elicitation addressed uncertainties in both a base case VSL for a reduction in mortality risk from traumatic accidents and in benefits transfer-related adjustments to the base case for an air quality application (e.g., adjustments for age, income, and health status). Results for each expert were integrated to develop example quantitative probabilistic uncertainty distributions for VSL that could be incorporated into air quality models. PMID:22571466

  6. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  7. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  8. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  9. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  10. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. PMID:16506972

  11. We’re only in it for the knowledge? A problem solving turn in environment and health expert elicitation

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The FP6 EU HENVINET project aimed at synthesizing the scientific information available on a number of topics of high relevance to policy makers in environment and health. The goal of the current paper is to reflect on the methodology that was used in the project, in view of exploring the usefulness of this and similar methodologies to the policy process. The topics investigated included health impacts of the brominated flame retardants decabrominated diphenylether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), phthalates highlighting di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP), the pesticide chlorpyrifos (CPF), nanoparticles, the impacts of climate change on asthma and other respiratory disorders, and the influence of environment health stressors on cancer induction. Methods Initially the focus was on identifying knowledge gaps in the state of the art in scientific knowledge. Literature reviews covered all elements that compose the causal chain of the different environmental health issues from emissions to exposures, to effects and to health impacts. Through expert elicitation, knowledge gaps were highlighted by assessing expert confidence using calibrated confidence scales. During this work a complementary focus to that on knowledge gaps was developed through interdisciplinary reflections. By extending the scope of the endeavour from only a scientific perspective, to also include the more problem solving oriented policy perspective, the question of which kind of policy action experts consider justifiable was addressed. This was addressed by means of a questionnaire. In an expert workshop the results of both questionnaires were discussed as a basis for policy briefs. Results The expert elicitation, the application of the calibrated confidence levels and the problem solving approach were all experienced as being quite challenging for the experts involved, as these approaches did not easily relate to mainstream environment and health scientific practices. Even so, most experts were quite positive about it. In particular, the opportunity to widen one’s own horizon and to interactively exchange knowledge and debate with a diversity of experts seemed to be well appreciated in this approach. Different parts of the approach also helped in focussing on specific relevant aspects of scientific knowledge, and as such can be considered of reflective value. Conclusions The approach developed by HENVINET was part of a practice of learning by doing and of interdisciplinary cooperation and negotiation. Ambitions were challenged by unforeseen complexities and difference of opinion and as no Holy Grail approach was at hand to copy or follow, it was quite an interesting but also complicated endeavour. Perfection, if this could be defined, seemed out of reach all the time. Nevertheless, many involved were quite positive about it. It seems that many felt that it fitted some important needs in current science when addressing the needs of policy making on such important issues, without anyone really having a clue on how to actually do this. Challenging questions remain on the quality of such approach and its product. Practice tells us that there probably is no best method and that the best we can do is dependent on contextual negotiation and learning from experiences that we think are relevant. PMID:22759503

  12. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops.

    PubMed

    Krayer von Krauss, Martin P; Casman, Elizabeth A; Small, Mitchell J

    2004-12-01

    One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems. PMID:15660608

  13. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This study is part of the FuturAgua project funded by the Belmont Freshwater Security call. The expert opinions on expected changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern are being used to inform regional efforts to build drought resilience and to create and compare alternative water management strategies with the region's stakeholders.

  14. Policy relevant results from an expert elicitation on the health risks of phthalates

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The EU 6th Framework Program (FP)-funded Health and Environment Network (HENVINET) aimed to support informed policy making by facilitating the availability of relevant knowledge on different environmental health issues. An approach was developed by which scientific agreement, disagreement, and knowledge gaps could be efficiently identified, and expert advice prepared in a way that is usable for policy makers. There were two aims of the project: 1) to apply the tool to a relevant issue; the potential health impacts of the widely used plasticizers, phthalates, and 2) to evaluate the method and the tool by asking both scientific experts and the target audience, namely policy makers and stakeholders, for their opinions. Methods The tool consisted of an expert consultation in several steps on the issue of phthalates in environmental health. A diagram depicting the cause-effect chain, from the production and use of phthalates to potential health impacts, was prepared based on existing reviews. This was used as a basis for an online questionnaire, through which experts in the field were consulted. The results of this first round of consultation laid the foundation for a new questionnaire answered by an expert panel that, subsequently, also discussed approaches and results in a workshop. One major task of the expert panel was to pinpoint priorities from the cause-effect chain according to their impact on the extent of potential health risks and their relevance for reducing uncertainty. The results were condensed into a policy brief that was sent to policy makers and stakeholders for their evaluation. Results The experts agreed about the substantial knowledge gaps within the field of phthalates. The top three priorities for further research and policy action were: 1) intrauterine exposure, 2) reproductive toxicology, and 3) exposure from medical devices. Although not all relevant information from the cause-effect chain is known for phthalates, most experts thought that there are enough indications to justify a precautionary approach and to restrict their general use. Although some of the experts expressed some scepticism about such a tool, most felt that important issues were highlighted. Conclusions The approach used was an efficient way at summarising priority knowledge gaps as a starting point for health risk assessment of compounds, based on their relevance for the risk assessment outcome. We conclude that this approach is useful for supporting policy makers with state-of-the-art scientific knowledge weighed by experts. The method can assist future evidence-based policy making. PMID:22759506

  15. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

    PubMed

    Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

    2010-11-15

    The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. PMID:20674168

  16. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  17. Policy relevant Results from an Expert Elicitation on the Human Health Risks of Decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) and Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Aim Apply a recently developed expert elicitation procedure to evaluate the state of the current knowledge of the two brominated flame retardants (BFRs) most commonly used today; decabromo-diphenyl ether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and their potential impact on human health in order to support policy considerations. This expert elicitation was organized by the HENVINET (Health and Environment Network) Consortium. Method The HENVINET expert elicitation procedure that was used in the evaluations of decaBDE and HBCD is a rapid assessment tool aimed at highlighting areas of agreement and areas of disagreement on knowledge-related key issues for environment and health policy decision making. Results The outcome of the expert consultation on BFRs was concrete expert advice for policy makers with specific priorities for further action made clear for both stakeholders and policy makers. The experts were not in agreement whether or not the knowledge currently available on decaBDE or HBCD is sufficient to justify policy actions, but most experts considered that enough data already exists to support a ban or restriction on the use of these compounds. All experts agreed on the necessity of more research on the compounds. Priority issues for further research were, among others: • more studies on the extent of human exposure to the compounds. • more studies on the fate and concentration in the human body of the compounds. PMID:22759507

  18. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from permafrost region soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert elicitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Jones, J.; Schuur, E. A.; Bowden, W. B.; Chapin, F. S., III; Epstein, H. E.; Flannigan, M.; Harms, T.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Mack, M. C.; Natali, S.; Rocha, A. V.; Tank, S. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Vonk, J.; Wickland, K.

    2013-12-01

    As the permafrost region warms, up to 288 Pg carbon (CO2 equivalent) may be released from soil by the end of the century, and up to 616 Pg by 2300. This soil carbon can be released to the atmosphere directly via mineralization or wildfire, or enter aquatic ecosystems as dissolved or particulate organic or inorganic carbon. Some models predict an increase in Arctic and boreal living biomass in response to extended growing season, enhanced nutrient cycling, and CO2 fertilization, but we have a poor understanding of how the production of new biomass will compare with loss of carbon from permafrost thaw. We administered surveys to permafrost region experts to assess current understanding of the magnitude and timing of biomass accumulation, hydrologic carbon flux, and wildfire carbon losses. Surveys addressed three time periods (present to 2040, 2100, and 2300) and four warming scenarios based on IPCC representative concentration pathways. Estimates of change in biomass and fire losses were provided individually for the boreal forest and arctic tundra. Experts estimated changes in carbon delivery to freshwater ecosystems as well as delivery to the ocean, including carbon release due to coastal erosion, fluxes infrequently captured in high-latitude models. Initial expert estimates indicated that while tundra biomass would increase substantially, total permafrost region biomass would decrease by the end of the century due to boreal forest drying and browning, followed by a modest increase by 2300 due to vegetation community shifts. Changes in aquatic systems could release an additional 2.7 Pg carbon by 2100 and 7.3 Pg by 2300. Modified wildfire regime could cause the release of an additional 13.6 Pg carbon by 2100 and 51.7 Pg by 2300. Current expert understanding therefore suggests that carbon gains in high-latitude biomass will be orders of magnitude smaller than carbon loss from permafrost soils and that hydrologic and wildfire pathways of carbon loss will likely accelerate carbon mobilization from permafrost region ecosystems.

  19. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  20. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  1. EXPERT ELICITATION WHITE PAPER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA is frequently called upon to make decisions on complex environmental issues, and to make these decisions, analyses are required from a broad range of disciplines. In all of these analyses, uncertainty and variability exist in estimates of the values of key parameters and...

  2. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  3. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  4. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  5. Statistical process control methods for expert system performance monitoring.

    PubMed Central

    Kahn, M G; Bailey, T C; Steib, S A; Fraser, V J; Dunagan, W C

    1996-01-01

    The literature on the performance evaluation of medical expert system is extensive, yet most of the techniques used in the early stages of system development are inappropriate for deployed expert systems. Because extensive clinical and informatics expertise and resources are required to perform evaluations, efficient yet effective methods of monitoring performance during the long-term maintenance phase of the expert system life cycle must be devised. Statistical process control techniques provide a well-established methodology that can be used to define policies and procedures for continuous, concurrent performance evaluation. Although the field of statistical process control has been developed for monitoring industrial processes, its tools, techniques, and theory are easily transferred to the evaluation of expert systems. Statistical process tools provide convenient visual methods and heuristic guidelines for detecting meaningful changes in expert system performance. The underlying statistical theory provides estimates of the detection capabilities of alternative evaluation strategies. This paper describes a set of statistical process control tools that can be used to monitor the performance of a number of deployed medical expert systems. It describes how p-charts are used in practice to monitor the GermWatcher expert system. The case volume and error rate of GermWatcher are then used to demonstrate how different inspection strategies would perform. PMID:8816348

  6. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

    1987-01-01

    The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

  7. Process Diagnosis Expert System Using First Principles and Functional Component

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-11-24

    PRODIAG is an expert system that performs online diagnosis of faulty components in thermal hydraulic processes. Given measurements of temperatures, pressure, flows, and liquid levels, PRODIAG identifies the possible faulty component candidates at the process level. It is a stand alone code, but can be used in conjunction with a component level program to distinguish among the possible faulty component candidates.

  8. A generic expert system for materials processing in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Kristinn; Cook, George E.; Strauss, Alvin M.

    1988-01-01

    A generic expert system is described for inspecting materials processed in space (MPS). The system may be applied, with the appropriate knowledge base, to any of the nondestructive testing methods (NDT) which are appropriate to MPS. Regardless of the method being used, the inspection process consists of three tasks: (1) signal or image processing of the NDT output and feature extraction, (2) interpretation of features in terms of MPS discontinuities, and (3) evaluation of the quality of the MPS based upon industry standards. In contrast to rule based systems, this system represents its knowledge as multidimensional vectors and appropriate functions on them. Currently, the expert system accepts manual input of observed features. Once the expert system has been tested and compared to human expert inspectors, a vision front-end will be developed to complete automation of the expert MPS inspection system, based on visual discontuities. Then the data base will be extended to include a variety of other NDT methods. In addition to functional performance, ease of use was established through menu window driven input as well as flexibility in building, using and modifying data bases for different applications.

  9. An expert system for natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hennessy, John F.

    1988-01-01

    A solution to the natural language processing problem that uses a rule based system, written in OPS5, to replace the traditional parsing method is proposed. The advantage to using a rule based system are explored. Specifically, the extensibility of a rule based solution is discussed as well as the value of maintaining rules that function independently. Finally, the power of using semantics to supplement the syntactic analysis of a sentence is considered.

  10. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  11. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

  12. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  13. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  14. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  15. Neural processes distinguishing elite from expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Callan, Daniel E; Naito, Eiichi

    2014-12-01

    This commentary builds on a companion article in which Kim et al compare brain activation in elite, expert, and novice archers during a simulated target aiming task (Kim et al. 2014. Cogn Behav Neurol. 27:173-182). With the archery study as our starting point, we address 4 neural processes that may be responsible in general for elite athletes' superior performance over experts and novices: neural efficiency, cortical expansion, specialized processes, and internal models. In Kim et al's study, the elite archers' brains showed more activity in the supplementary motor area and the cerebellum than those of the novices and experts, and showed minimal widespread activity, especially in frontal areas involved with executive control. Kim et al's results are consistent with the idea of specialized neural processes that help coordinate motor planning and control. As athletes become more skilled, these processes may mediate the reduction in widespread activity in regions mapping executive control, and may produce a shift toward more automated processing. Kim et al's finding that activity in the cerebellum rose with increasing skill is consistent both with expansion of the finger representational area in the cerebellum and with internal models that simulate how archers manipulate the bow and arrow when aiming. Kim et al prepare the way for testing of neuromodulation techniques to improve athletic performance, refine highly technical job skills, and rehabilitate patients. PMID:25539037

  16. Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

  17. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... the draft of the concept paper via an online discussion forum and wiki hosted by the White House Open Government Initiative and GSA and located at http://expertnet.wikispaces.com (the ``Wiki''). In addition, respondents who cannot access the Wiki are welcome to download a copy of the concept paper at...

  18. Experiences in Using Patterns to Support Process Experts in Process Description and Wizard Creation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmermann, Birgit; Rensing, Christoph; Steinmetz, Ralf

    The adaptation of existing E-Learning material to a changed usage scenario is a complex task. But in reality, often the persons, who have to adapt existing material, are not experts in performing all needed tasks. Thus, to be able to support those persons, it would be desirable to provide a tool based on expert knowledge about how to perform the processes. In this paper an approach is presented, how experts in performing adaptation processes can provide their knowledge about the processes via a pattern based description formalism. A wizard guiding users step by step through the described adaptation processes can be derived from the patterns. This wizard offers expert knowledge to persons who are novices in performing adaptation processes.

  19. Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

  20. Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paris, Cecile L.

    1993-01-01

    Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

  1. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

  2. Job Aid for Subject Matter Expert Involvement in the Hiring Process Roles and Responsibilities

    E-print Network

    Job Aid for Subject Matter Expert Involvement in the Hiring Process Roles and Responsibilities necessary to perform a specific job. The overall role and responsibility of the SME is to provide experts on an ad-hoc basis. The Subject Matter Expert (SME) is involved in: · Development of the Job

  3. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  4. Counter-regulating on the internet: Threat elicits preferential processing of positive information.

    PubMed

    Greving, Hannah; Sassenberg, Kai; Fetterman, Adam

    2015-09-01

    The Internet is a central source of information. It is increasingly used for information search in self-relevant domains (e.g., health). Self-relevant topics are also associated with specific emotions and motivational states. For example, individuals may fear serious illness and feel threatened. Thus far, the impact of threat has received little attention in Internet-based research. The current studies investigated how threat influences Internet search. Threat is known to elicit the preferential processing of positive information. The self-directed nature of Internet search should particularly provide opportunities for such processing behavior. We predicted that during Internet search, more positive information would be processed (i.e., allocated more attention to) and more positive knowledge would be acquired under threat than in a control condition. Three experiments supported this prediction: Under threat, attention is directed more to positive web pages (Study 1) and positive links (Study 2), and more positive information is acquired (Studies 1 and 3) than in a control condition. Notably, the effect on knowledge acquisition was mediated by the effect on attention allocation during an actual Internet search (Study 1). Thus, Internet search under threat leads to selective processing of positive information and dampens threatened individuals' negative affect. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26098968

  5. Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

    1991-03-01

    To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

  6. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey, completed in mid-2004, and (2) drilling of selected anomalies based on the aeromagnetic survey results to better characterize the number, location and age of buried volcanoes, which began in mid-2005. The new aeromagnetic survey detected the presence of 33 anomalies interpreted as possible buried volcanoes or faulted tuff bedrock. A program to drill ten of the anomalies has begun, with the selection of drill holes prioritized based on their potential impact on the hazard assessment.

  7. Updating an Expert Elicitation in the Light of New Data: Ten Years of Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis for the Proposed High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, F. V.; Cogbill, A.; Kelley, R.; Youngs, R.; Cline, M.

    2005-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10-8 dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring 1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey, completed in mid-2004, and 2) drilling of selected anomalies based on the aeromagnetic survey results to better characterize the number, location and age of buried volcanoes, which began in mid-2005. The new aeromagnetic survey detected the presence of 33 anomalies interpreted as possible buried volcanoes or faulted tuff bedrock. A program to drill ten of the anomalies has begun, with the selection of drill holes prioritized based on their potential impact on the hazard assessment.

  8. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  9. User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. Methods AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Results Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. Conclusions AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department. PMID:23289426

  10. RFID-Based Critical Path Expert System for Agility Manufacture Process Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Haifang; Xiang, Yuli

    This paper presents a critical path expert system for the agility manufacture process management based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. The paper explores that the agility manufacture processes can be visible and controllable with RFID. The critical paths or activities can be easily found out and tracked by the RFID tracing technology. And the expert system can optimize the bottle neck of the task process of the agility management with the critical path adjusting and reforming method. Finally, the paper gives a simple application example of the system to discuss how to adjust the critical paths and how to make the process more agility and flexibility with the critical path expert system. With an RFID-based critical path expert system, the agility manufacture process management will be more effective and efficient.

  11. Content validation using an expert panel: assessment process for assistive technology adopted by farmers with disabilities.

    PubMed

    Mathew, S N; Field, W E; French, B F

    2011-07-01

    This article reports the use of an expert panel to perform content validation of an experimental assessment process for the safety of assistive technology (AT) adopted by farmers with disabilities. The validation process was conducted by a panel of six experts experienced in the subject matter, i.e., design, use, and assessment of AT for farmers with disabilities. The exercise included an evaluation session and two focus group sessions. The evaluation session consisted of using the assessment process under consideration by the panel to evaluate a set of nine ATs fabricated by a farmer on his farm site. The expert panel also participated in the focus group sessions conducted immediately before and after the evaluation session. The resulting data were analyzed using discursive analysis, and the results were incorporated into the final assessment process. The method and the results are presented with recommendations for the use of expert panels in research projects and validation of assessment tools. PMID:21919319

  12. A formal methodology for acquiring and representing expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, N.M.; McDonald, J.E.

    1986-10-01

    The process of eliciting knowledge from human experts and representing that knowledge in an expert or knowledge-based system suffers from numerous problems. Not only is this process time-consuming and tedious, but the weak knowledge acquisition methods typically used (i.e., interviews and protocol analysis) are inadequate for eliciting tacit knowledge and may, in fact, lead to inaccuracies in the knowledge base. In addition, the intended knowledge representation scheme guides the acquisition of knowledge resulting in a representation-driven knowledge base as opposed to one that is knowledge-driven. In this paper, a formal methodology is proposed that employs techniques from the field of cognitive psychology to uncover expert knowledge as well as an appropriate representation of that knowledge. The advantages of such a methodology are discussed, as well as results from studies concerning the elicitation of concepts from experts and the assignment of labels to links in empirically derived semantic networks.

  13. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices.

    PubMed

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  14. In Experts, underlying processes that drive visuomotor adaptation are different than in Novices

    PubMed Central

    Leukel, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Taube, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Processes responsible for improvements in motor performance are often contrasted in an explicit and an implicit part. Explicit learning enables task success by using strategic (declarative) knowledge. Implicit learning refers to a change in motor performance without conscious effort. In this study, we tested the contribution of explicit and implicit processes in a visuomotor adaptation task in subjects with different expertise in the task they were asked to adapt. Thirty handball players (Experts) and 30 subjects without handball experience (Novices) participated. Three experiments tested visuomotor adaptation of a free throw in team handball using prismatic glasses. The difference between experiments was that in Experiment 2 and 3, contribution of explicit processes was prevented, whereas Experiment 1 allowed contribution of explicit and implicit processes. Retention was assessed in Experiment 3. There were three main findings: (i) contribution of explicit processes to adaptation was stronger in Experts than Novices (Experiment 1); (ii) adaptation took longer in Experts when preventing contribution of explicit processes (Experiment 2); and (iii) retention was stronger in Experts (Experiment 3). This study shows that learning processes involved in visuomotor adaptation change by expertise, with more involvement of explicit processes and most likely other implicit processes to adaptation in Experts. PMID:25713526

  15. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-07-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications.

  16. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  17. A Sublanguage Approach to Natural Language Processing for an Expert System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddy, Elizabeth D.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Reports on the development of an NLP (natural language processing) component for processing the free-text comments on life insurance applications for evaluation by an underwriting expert system. A sublanguage grammar approach with strong reliance on semantic word classes is described. Highlights include lexical analysis, adjacency analysis, and…

  18. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C. (Bolingbrook, IL); Singer, Ralph M. (Naperville, IL)

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  19. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  20. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  1. A reevaluation of the electrophysiological correlates of expert object processing.

    PubMed

    Scott, Lisa S; Tanaka, James W; Sheinberg, David L; Curran, Tim

    2006-09-01

    Subordinate-level object processing is regarded as a hallmark of perceptual expertise. However, the relative contribution of subordinate- and basic-level category experience in the acquisition of perceptual expertise has not been clearly delineated. In this study, participants learned to classify wading birds and owls at either the basic (e.g., wading bird, owl) or the subordinate (e.g., egret, snowy owl) level. After 6 days of training, behavioral results showed that subordinate-level but not basic-level training improved subordinate discrimination of trained exemplars, novel exemplars, and exemplars from novel species. Event-related potentials indicated that both basic- and subordinate-level training enhanced the early N170 component, but only subordinate-level training amplified the later N250 component. These results are consistent with models positing separate basic and subordinate learning mechanisms, and, contrary to perspectives attempting to explain visual expertise solely in terms of subordinate-level processing, suggest that expertise enhances neural responses of both basic and subordinate processing. PMID:16989547

  2. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and substantial effect. Prior to this investigation, there have been no studies which have tested Zimmerman's three phase model on an academic task, such as science, within an expertise framework. Implications from the present study suggest that students varying in expertise level in science achievement also vary in self-regulatory behavior, and that gender is not a significant factor.

  3. Efficient production of flavonoids in Fagopyrum tataricum hairy root cultures with yeast polysaccharide elicitation and medium renewal process

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Jiang-Lin; Zou, Liang; Zhang, Cai-Qiong; Li, Yuan-Yuan; Peng, Lian-Xin; Xiang, Da-Bing; Zhao, Gang

    2014-01-01

    Background: Tartary buckwheat (Fagopyrum tataricum), an excellent edible and medicinal crop, has been widely used as a daily diet and traditional medicine for a long time. The major functional components of Fagopyrum tataricum have been demonstrated to be flavonoids (i.e. rutin and quercetin), which had notable andioxidant, antidiabetic, hypocholesterolemic and antitumor activities. Hairy root culture is a convenient and efficient plant tissue culture system for large scale production of bioactive metabolites. Objective: To enhance the functional flavonoids production in hairy root culture of F. tataricum. Materials and Methods: The elicitation treatment in combination with medium renewal strategy was applied for efficient promoting flavonoids production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures. Results: The exogenous yeast polysaccharide (YPS) elicitor notably stimulated the functional metabolites production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures, and the stimulation effect was concentration-dependent. Combination with the YPS elicitation (200 mg/L) and medium renewal process, the maximal flavonoids yield was enhanced to 47.13 mg/L, about 3.2-fold in comparison with the control culture of 14.88 mg/L. Moreover, this research also revealed the accumulation of these bioactive metabolites resulted from the stimulation of the phenylpropanoid pathway by YPS treatment. These results indicated that the F. tataricum hairy root culture could be an effective system for rutin and quercetin production. PMID:25210309

  4. Deep Levels of Processing Elicit a Distinctiveness Heuristic: Evidence from the Criterial Recollection Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gallo, David A.; Meadow, Nathaniel G.; Johnson, Elizabeth L.; Foster, Katherine T.

    2008-01-01

    Thinking about the meaning of studied words (deep processing) enhances memory on typical recognition tests, relative to focusing on perceptual features (shallow processing). One explanation for this levels-of-processing effect is that deep processing leads to the encoding of more distinctive representations (i.e., more unique semantic or…

  5. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

  6. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  7. Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrachowitz, Markus; Fovet, Ophelie; Ruiz, Laurent; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Savenije, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are frequently characterized by what is often considered to be adequate calibration performances. In many cases, however, these models experience a substantial uncertainty and performance decrease in validation periods, thus resulting in poor predictive power. Besides the likely presence of data errors, this observation can point towards wrong or insufficient representations of the underlying processes and their heterogeneity. In other words, right results are generated for the wrong reasons. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency and to thereby satisfy the contrasting priorities of the need a) to increase model complexity and b) to limit model equifinality. In this study a stepwise model development approach is chosen to test the value of an exhaustive and systematic combined use of hydrological signatures, expert knowledge and readily available, yet anecdotal and rarely exploited, hydrological information for increasing model consistency towards generating the right answer for the right reasons. A simple 3-box, 7 parameter, conceptual HBV-type model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph with comparatively high values for the 4 objective functions in the 5-year calibration period. However, closer inspection of the results showed a dramatic decrease of model performance in the 5-year validation period. In addition, assessing the model's skill to reproduce a range of 20 hydrological signatures including, amongst others, the flow duration curve, the autocorrelation function and the rising limb density, showed that it could not adequately reproduce the vast majority of these signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently model complexity was increased in a stepwise way to allow for more process heterogeneity. To limit model equifinality, increase in complexity was counter-balanced by a stepwise application of "realism constraints", inferred from expert knowledge (e.g. unsaturated storage capacity of hillslopes should exceed the one of wetlands) and anecdotal hydrological information (e.g. long-term estimates of actual evaporation obtained from the Budyko framework and long-term estimates of baseflow contribution) to ensure that the model is well behaved with respect to the modeller's perception of the system. A total of 11 model set-ups with increased complexity and an increased number of realism constraints was tested. It could be shown that in spite of largely unchanged calibration performance, compared to the simplest set-up, the most complex model set-up (12 parameters, 8 constraints) exhibited significantly increased performance in the validation period while uncertainty did not increase. In addition, the most complex model was characterized by a substantially increased skill to reproduce all 20 signatures, indicating a more suitable representation of the system. The results suggest that a model, "well" constrained by 4 calibration objective functions may still be an inadequate representation of the system and that increasing model complexity, if counter-balanced by realism constraints, can indeed increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce a range of hydrological signatures, but that it does not necessarily result in increased uncertainty. The results also strongly illustrate the need to move away from automated model calibration towards a more general expert-knowledge driven strategy of constraining models if a certain level of model consistency is to be achieved.

  8. Expert system methodology for evaluating reductive dechlorination at TCE sites

    SciTech Connect

    Stiber, N.A.; Pantazidou, M.; Small, M.J.

    1999-09-01

    An expert knowledge site-screening methodology has been developed to evaluate naturally occurring reductive dechlorination as a remedial option for sites with TCE-contaminated groundwater. This methodology combines a causative model for the reductive dechlorination of TCE and expert knowledge within a Bayesian Belief Network. The knowledge base for this expert system was obtained from 22 experts via an expert elicitation protocol The resulting expert system can be used to aid environmental decision making by evaluating the adequacy of reductive dechlorination at TCE-contaminated sites. Comparisons between this expert system and a commonly used screening tool show that this expert system reproduces predictive models that may better discriminate between locations that were sampled. The 22 elicitations revealed different beliefs and assumptions among experts about the biochemical processes involved in reductive dechlorination. The decision-making value of some types of evidence is a matter of dispute; however, findings about biodegradation daughter and/or end products have high decision-making value for all of the experts. The methodology demonstrated herein can provide insights for other environmental decision-making challenges.

  9. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  10. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of…

  11. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  12. Energy Efficiency Policy in Arizona Public Participation and Expert Consultation in the Policy Implementation Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryck, Drew

    Many different levels of government, organizations, and programs actively shape the future of energy in Arizona, a state that lacks a comprehensive energy plan. Disparate actions by multiple actors may slow the energy policy process rather than expedite it. The absence of a state energy policy or plan raises questions about how multiple actors and ideas engage with state energy policy development and whether the absence of a comprehensive state plan can be understood. Improving how policy development is conceptualized and giving more focused attention to the mechanisms by which interested parties become involved in shaping Arizona energy policy. To explore these questions, I examine the future energy efficiency. Initially, public engagement mechanisms were examined for their role in policy creation from a theoretical perspective. Next a prominent public engagement forum that was dedicated to the topic of the Arizona's energy future was examined, mapping its process and conclusions onto a policy process model. The first part of this thesis involves an experimental expert consultation panel which was convened to amplify and refine the results of a public forum. The second part utilizes an online follow up survey to complete unfinished ideas from the focus group. The experiment flowed from a hypothesis that formal expert discussion on energy efficiency policies, guided by the recommendations put forth by the public engagement forum on energy in Arizona, would result in an increase in relevance while providing a forum for interdisciplinary collaboration that is atypical in today's energy discussions. This experiment was designed and evaluated utilizing a public engagement framework that incorporated theoretical and empirical elements. Specifically, I adapted elements of three methods of public and expert engagement used in policy development to create a consultation process that was contextualized to energy efficiency stakeholders in Arizona and their unique constraints. The goal of the consultation process was to refine preferences about policy options by expert stakeholders into actionable goals that could achieve advancement on policy implementation. As a corollary goal, the research set out to define implementation barriers, refine policy ideas, and operationalize Arizona-centric goals for the future of energy efficiency.

  13. Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

    PubMed

    Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

    2015-07-01

    Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. PMID:25850859

  14. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  15. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  16. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  17. Development of an expert system to assist the interactive graphic transit-system design process

    SciTech Connect

    Janarthanan, N.

    1987-01-01

    This dissertation research is focused on an investigation of the applicability of a knowledge-based expert system approach to increasing the productivity of the transit-network design process. For this research, an interactive knowledge-based expert system (TNOP-ADVISOR) was developed to assist the development of high-performance transit-network designs. TNOP-ADVISOR provides advice about how to modify designs so as to obtain improved performance. A network-simulation software package (TNOP) provides the capability for modifying and predicting the performance of these designs. The knowledge-based inference engine is capable of generating advice about what operational and system planning design changes are likely to lead to higher-performance levels. Operational variables include headways, vehicles types, layover, and departure times. System-planning variables include route-layout changes or adding/deleting entire routes. The knowledge-base can be applied to any transit-network design problem at any stage of the design process and also can give advice irrespective of the demand pattern or base network being examined. A computer-based interactive multicriteria evaluation method that uses concordance analysis is developed and used to evaluate and rank the alternative transit-system designs.

  18. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  19. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  20. Breast Implant–associated Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma: Updated Results from a Structured Expert Consultation Process

    PubMed Central

    Predmore, Zachary S.; Mattke, Soeren; van Busum, Kristin; Gidengil, Courtney A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite increased cases published on breast implant–associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL), important clinical issues remain unanswered. We conducted a second structured expert consultation process to rate statements related to the diagnosis, management, and surveillance of this disease, based on their interpretation of published evidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of 12 experts was selected based on nominations from national specialty societies, academic department heads, and recognized researchers in the United States. Results: Panelists agreed that (1) this disease should be called “BIA-ALCL”; (2) late seromas occurring >1 year after breast implantation should be evaluated via ultrasound, and if a seroma is present, the fluid should be aspirated and sent for culture, cytology, flow cytometry, and cell block to an experienced hematopathologist; (3) surgical removal of the affected implant and capsule (as completely as possible) should occur, which is sufficient to eradicate capsule-confined BIA-ALCL; (4) surveillance should consist of clinical follow-up at least every 6 months for at least 5 years and breast ultrasound yearly for at least 2 years; and (5) BIA-ALCL is generally a biologically indolent disease with a good prognosis, unless it extends beyond the capsule and/or presents as a mass. They firmly disagreed with statements that chemotherapy and radiation therapy should be given to all patients with BIA-ALCL. Conclusions: Our assessment yielded consistent results on a number of key, incompletely addressed issues regarding BIA-ALCL, but additional research is needed to support these statement ratings and enhance our understanding of the biology, treatment, and outcomes associated with this disease. PMID:25674377

  1. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques (Westchester, IL); Wei, Thomas Y. C. (Downers Grove, IL)

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  2. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  3. Integrated processing and analysis of hydrological data - not only for experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalicz, P.; Gribovszki, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The advent of the digital data logging results huge amount of hydrological time series from wide variety of hydrological phenomenon and water quality indicators. There are different sampling frequencies, irregular time steps, hand measured control data which are necessary treat in the same database. Some processes (e.g. the concentration of surface water) in small catchments and urban areas change quickly thus at this case for a rigorous study it is necessary to apply high frequency data sampling. Sometimes there is an error and the equidistant times series is broken. The error produced gap in the time series forms an obstacle for some type of calculations. There are many proprietary softwares process these data and gives solutions for the exercises. It can be found also open source solutions. Some years ago the open source R was chosen for analyzing data, which are measured in the Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment. This system is an excellent environment to organize and visualize hydrological time series. The contributing package called zoo has good abilities to work with different temporal resolutions. There are also many sophisticated statistical functions (e.g. auto- and cross-correlation functions, spectral analysis, filters, smoothing algorithms, etc.). During the years some functions was developed for data import, semi-automatic data processing, visualizations and analyses. In the last year in the umbrella of a project brings up a demand for visualize time series from non-R-experts. An easy-to-use graphical user interface was developed to solve this problem instead of cumbersome import/export processes or introduction to R course. This integrated utility uses the integrated Tcl/Tk package and gives possibilities to mouse driven visualization.

  4. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  5. Practice Guidance for Buprenorphine for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorders: Results of an Expert Panel Process

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Carrie M.; Lindsay, Dawn; Williams, Jessica; Ayers, Amanda; Schuster, James; Cilia, Alyssa; Flaherty, Michael T.; Mandell, Todd; Gordon, Adam J.; Stein, Bradley D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although numbers of physicians credentialed to prescribe buprenorphine has increased over time, many credentialed physicians may be reluctant to treat individuals with opioid use disorders due to discomfort with prescribing buprenorphine. Though prescribing physicians are required to complete a training course, many have questions about buprenorphine and treatment guidelines have not been updated to reflect clinical experience in recent years. We report on an expert panel process to update and expand buprenorphine guidelines. Methods We identified candidate guidelines through expert opinion and a review of the literature and used a modified RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method to assess the validity of the candidate guidelines. An expert panel completed two rounds of rating, with a meeting to discuss the guidelines between the first and second rating. Results Through the rating process, expert panel members rated 90 candidate guideline statements across eight domains, including candidacy for buprenorphine treatment, dosing of buprenorphine, psychosocial counseling, and treatment of co-occurring depression and anxiety. A total of 65 guideline statements (72%) were rated as valid. Expert panel members had agreement in some areas, such as the treatment of co-occurring mental health problems, but disagreement in others, including the appropriate dosing of buprenorphine given patient complexities. Conclusions Through an expert panel process, we developed an updated and expanded set of buprenorphine treatment guidelines; this additional guidance may increase credentialed physicians’ comfort with prescribing buprenorphine to patients with opioid use disorders. Future efforts should focus on appropriate dosing guidance and ensuring that guidelines can be adapted to a variety of practice settings. PMID:25844527

  6. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

  7. Assessing the potential of microcomputer-based expert systems in the process of agricultural technology transfer in Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Fresneda, P.S.V.

    1986-01-01

    This study focused on technology-transfer problems in the agricultural sector. The research hypotheses were to assess the potential use of microcomputer-based expert systems as (1) mechanisms for transferring technical information between agricultural research and rural extension programs, (2) training aids for extensionists' (county agents') programs, and (3) tools for gathering relevant information from farmers and extensionists for research and extension management. The study also addressed the integrative role that expert systems technology plays in the overall process of technology transfer in the agricultural area, as well as the self-improving feature the technology introduces to the Total System (Research + Extension + Farmers) of agricultural technology development. A prototype expert system was developed for diagnosing and recommending treatment for selected potato diseases. In an experiment carried out in an extension organization in Brazil, 56 extensionists used the prototype and filled out a questionnaire designed to test the research hypotheses. Findings of the study indicate that microcomputer-based expert-system technology has the potential to accomplish the three objectives presented above.

  8. The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014

    PubMed Central

    Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose: One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students’ and experts’ performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. Materials and methods: This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members’ performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts’ viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don’t know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. Results: From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0.01. It showed 86.7% student and 33.3% of experts is satisfied with the evaluation process. Conclusion: on comparison of students and experts viewpoints on the implementation of the evaluation process, it is noteworthy that among students of different opinions on how the evaluation process. It worth to mention that there is insignificant difference between their viewpoints and majority of students and evaluation experts with the evaluation the process. In addition, the experts evaluated at different schools, most of them are satisfied the process. PMID:26236169

  9. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  10. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these…

  11. Online Search + Logic Programming = Subject Bibliography: An Expert Systems Approach to Bibliographic Processing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lirov, Yuval; Lirov, Viktor

    1990-01-01

    Describes the development of a knowledge-based system, REX, that creates subject bibliographies by downloading reference material from an online bibliographic service. The expert systems architecture is explained, use of Prolog is described, and creation of the subject knowledge base and an author index are discussed. (10 references) (LRW)

  12. Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

    PubMed

    Staccini, Pascal M; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

    2002-01-01

    Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

  13. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  14. Diverse environmental stresses elicit distinct responses at the level of pre-mRNA processing in yeast

    PubMed Central

    Bergkessel, Megan; Whitworth, Gregg B.; Guthrie, Christine

    2011-01-01

    Gene expression in eukaryotic cells is profoundly influenced by the post-transcriptional processing of mRNAs, including the splicing of introns in the nucleus and both nuclear and cytoplasmic degradation pathways. These processes have the potential to affect both the steady-state levels and the kinetics of changes to levels of intron-containing transcripts. Here we report the use of a splicing isoform-specific microarray platform to investigate the effects of diverse stress conditions on pre-mRNA processing. Interestingly, we find that diverse stresses cause distinct patterns of changes at this level. The responses we observed are most dramatic for the RPGs and can be categorized into three major classes. The first is characterized by accumulation of RPG pre-mRNA and is seen in multiple types of amino acid starvation regimes; the magnitude of splicing inhibition correlates with the severity of the stress. The second class is characterized by a rapid decrease in both pre- and mature RPG mRNA and is seen in many stresses that inactivate the TORC1 kinase complex. These decreases depend on nuclear turnover of the intron-containing pre-RNAs. The third class is characterized by a decrease in RPG pre-mRNA, with only a modest reduction in the mature species; this response is observed in hyperosmotic and cation-toxic stresses. We show that casein kinase 2 (CK2) makes important contributions to the changes in pre-mRNA processing, particularly for the first two classes of stress responses. In total, our data suggest that complex post-transcriptional programs cooperate to fine-tune expression of intron-containing transcripts in budding yeast. PMID:21697354

  15. Diverse environmental stresses elicit distinct responses at the level of pre-mRNA processing in yeast.

    PubMed

    Bergkessel, Megan; Whitworth, Gregg B; Guthrie, Christine

    2011-08-01

    Gene expression in eukaryotic cells is profoundly influenced by the post-transcriptional processing of mRNAs, including the splicing of introns in the nucleus and both nuclear and cytoplasmic degradation pathways. These processes have the potential to affect both the steady-state levels and the kinetics of changes to levels of intron-containing transcripts. Here we report the use of a splicing isoform-specific microarray platform to investigate the effects of diverse stress conditions on pre-mRNA processing. Interestingly, we find that diverse stresses cause distinct patterns of changes at this level. The responses we observed are most dramatic for the RPGs and can be categorized into three major classes. The first is characterized by accumulation of RPG pre-mRNA and is seen in multiple types of amino acid starvation regimes; the magnitude of splicing inhibition correlates with the severity of the stress. The second class is characterized by a rapid decrease in both pre- and mature RPG mRNA and is seen in many stresses that inactivate the TORC1 kinase complex. These decreases depend on nuclear turnover of the intron-containing pre-RNAs. The third class is characterized by a decrease in RPG pre-mRNA, with only a modest reduction in the mature species; this response is observed in hyperosmotic and cation-toxic stresses. We show that casein kinase 2 (CK2) makes important contributions to the changes in pre-mRNA processing, particularly for the first two classes of stress responses. In total, our data suggest that complex post-transcriptional programs cooperate to fine-tune expression of intron-containing transcripts in budding yeast. PMID:21697354

  16. Combining Analytical Hierarchy Process and Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering in Search of Expert Consensus in Green Corridors Development Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

    2013-07-01

    Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts—landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers—revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

  17. Counter-regulation triggered by emotions: positive/negative affective states elicit opposite valence biases in affective processing.

    PubMed

    Schwager, Susanne; Rothermund, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated whether counter-regulation in affective processing is triggered by emotions. Automatic attention allocation to valent stimuli was measured in the context of positive and negative affective states. Valence biases were assessed by comparing the detection of positive versus negative words in a visual search task (Experiment 1) or by comparing interference effects of positive and negative distractor words in an emotional Stroop task (Experiment 2). Imagining a hypothetical emotional situation (Experiment 1) or watching romantic versus depressing movie clips (Experiment 2) increased attention allocation to stimuli that were opposite in valence to the current emotional state. Counter-regulation is assumed to reflect a basic mechanism underlying implicit emotion regulation. PMID:23237331

  18. The Naturally Processed CD95L Elicits a c-Yes/Calcium/PI3K-Driven Cell Migration Pathway

    PubMed Central

    Selva, Eric; Khadra, Nadine; Daburon, Sophie; Contin-Bordes, Cécile; Blanco, Patrick; Le Seyec, Jacques; Ducret, Thomas; Counillon, Laurent; Moreau, Jean-François; Hofman, Paul; Vacher, Pierre; Legembre, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    Patients affected by chronic inflammatory disorders display high amounts of soluble CD95L. This homotrimeric ligand arises from the cleavage by metalloproteases of its membrane-bound counterpart, a strong apoptotic inducer. In contrast, the naturally processed CD95L is viewed as an apoptotic antagonist competing with its membrane counterpart for binding to CD95. Recent reports pinpointed that activation of CD95 may attract myeloid and tumoral cells, which display resistance to the CD95-mediated apoptotic signal. However, all these studies were performed using chimeric CD95Ls (oligomerized forms), which behave as the membrane-bound ligand and not as the naturally processed CD95L. Herein, we examine the biological effects of the metalloprotease-cleaved CD95L on CD95-sensitive activated T-lymphocytes. We demonstrate that cleaved CD95L (cl-CD95L), found increased in sera of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients as compared to that of healthy individuals, promotes the formation of migrating pseudopods at the leading edge of which the death receptor CD95 is capped (confocal microscopy). Using different migration assays (wound healing/Boyden Chamber/endothelial transmigration), we uncover that cl-CD95L promotes cell migration through a c-yes/Ca2+/PI3K-driven signaling pathway, which relies on the formation of a CD95-containing complex designated the MISC for Motility-Inducing Signaling Complex. These findings revisit the role of the metalloprotease-cleaved CD95L and emphasize that the increase in cl-CD95L observed in patients affected by chronic inflammatory disorders may fuel the local or systemic tissue damage by promoting tissue-filtration of immune cells. PMID:21713032

  19. Beyond the core face-processing network: Intracerebral stimulation of a face-selective area in the right anterior fusiform gyrus elicits transient prosopagnosia.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Jacques; Rossion, Bruno; Brissart, Hélène; Frismand, Solène; Jacques, Corentin; Hossu, Gabriela; Colnat-Coulbois, Sophie; Vespignani, Hervé; Vignal, Jean-Pierre; Maillard, Louis

    2015-11-01

    According to neuropsychological evidence, a distributed network of regions of the ventral visual pathway - from the lateral occipital cortex to the temporal pole - supports face recognition. However, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have generally confined ventral face-selective areas to the posterior section of the occipito-temporal cortex, i.e., the inferior occipital gyrus occipital face area (OFA) and the posterior and middle fusiform gyrus fusiform face area (FFA). There is recent evidence that intracranial electrical stimulation of these areas in the right hemisphere elicits face matching and recognition impairments (i.e., prosopagnosia) as well as perceptual face distortions. Here we report a case of transient inability to recognize faces following electrical stimulation of the right anterior fusiform gyrus, in a region located anteriorly to the FFA. There was no perceptual face distortion reported during stimulation. Although no fMRI face-selective responses were found in this region due to a severe signal drop-out as in previous studies, intracerebral face-selective event-related potentials and gamma range electrophysiological responses were found at the critical site of stimulation. These results point to a causal role in face recognition of the right anterior fusiform gyrus and more generally of face-selective areas located beyond the "core" face-processing network in the right ventral temporal cortex. It also illustrates the diagnostic value of intracerebral electrophysiological recordings and stimulation in understanding the neural basis of face recognition and visual recognition in general. PMID:26143305

  20. Role of intuition in the decision process of expert ski guides 

    E-print Network

    Stewart-Patterson, Iain; Patterson, Iain Stewart

    2014-07-04

    High quality decision-making can be produced through a sophisticated analytical process in addition to an intuitive process. A high quality intuitive process is dependent on an extensive repertoire of previous patterns ...

  1. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  2. Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing

    PubMed Central

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M. Granger; Frame, David J.; Keith, David W.

    2010-01-01

    There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked “cloud radiative feedbacks” as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm-2 in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a “basic state change” as ?0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8–1.8?°C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5?°C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the “likely” range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty. PMID:20616045

  3. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  4. Elicitation, assessment and pooling of expert judgements using possibility theory

    E-print Network

    Winckler, Marco Antonio Alba

    . Dubois**, H.W. Kalfsbeek*** 1 * Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Caixa Postal 515 with randomness. Moreover the probabilistic framework looks somewhat restrictive to express the variety

  5. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  6. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  7. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or hobbies). Unify myriad collections of data into Web-enabled repository that could easily be searched for relevant data.

  8. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  9. A Type-2 Fuzzy Image Processing Expert System for Diagnosing Brain Tumors.

    PubMed

    Zarinbal, M; Fazel Zarandi, M H; Turksen, I B; Izadi, M

    2015-10-01

    The focus of this paper is diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas in MRI scans by developing an interval Type-2 fuzzy automated tumor detection system. This system consists of three modules: working memory, knowledge base, and inference engine. An image processing method with three steps of preprocessing, segmentation and feature extraction, and approximate reasoning is used in inference engine module to enhance the quality of MRI scans, segment them into desired regions, extract the required features, and finally diagnose and differentiate Astrocytomas. However, brain tumors have different characteristics in different planes, so considering one plane of patient's MRI scan may cause inaccurate results. Therefore, in the developed system, several consecutive planes are processed. The performance of this system is evaluated using 95 MRI scans and the results show good improvement in diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas. PMID:26276018

  10. Integration Of The BUZZ Image Processing System With An Expert System For Vehicle Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggleby, William G.

    1988-03-01

    Modern manufacturing environments are using an increasing number of automated guided vehicles. While these robots can improve productivity, they are restricted to following preset paths marked by paint or electrical wires. A need exists for a robot cart which can determine its own path given knowledge of its surroundings and its goals. This type of robot could determine the shortest path to accomplish its goals, and it could use heuristic reasoning to determine how to get around obstacles which would normally block a painted path. Image processing techniques combined with knowledge-based reasoning can provide a solution to this problem. This paper discusses a system which acquires video images of a hallway, segments those images using image processing algorithms, and determines the classification of objects and the appropriate path for a cart using heuristic reasoning. The images are segmented using basic knowledge of the surroundings. Heuristics in the form of production rules are used to determine the classification for each segment and the corresponding confidence. The rules were developed from an analysis of the basic features common to object classes in the image database.

  11. Hot potato: expert-consumer differences in the perception of a second-generation novel food.

    PubMed

    Hagemann, Kit S; Scholderer, Joachim

    2009-07-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite widespread efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in risk management has been low. Social scientists have identified various reasons for this, including a disagreement between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the ways in which experts and consumers understand the benefits and risks associated with a genetically modified example crop. Two qualitative studies were conducted. In Study 1, mental models were elicited from 24 experts by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure. In Study 2, mental models were elicited from 25 consumers by means of in-depth interviews. As expected, the expert mental models were focused on the types of hazards that can realistically be addressed under current regulatory frameworks, whereas the consumers were often more concerned about issues outside the scope of current legislation. Moreover, the experts tended to define risk and benefit in terms of detailed chains of cause-effect relationships between variables for which clear definitions and measurement rules exist. The concepts the consumers used when reasoning about biological processes were very abstract, suggesting that the participants had, at most, a holistic understanding. In line with this, issues of uncertainty played a prominent role for the consumers. PMID:19392674

  12. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of completing classical data analysis with PEK as a mean to extract relevant knowledge in complex health domains. One of the major benefits of EbCA is iterative elicitation of IK.. Both explicit and tacit or implicit expert knowledge are critical to guide the scientific analysis of very complex decisional problems as those found in health system research. PMID:20920289

  13. Annotation methods to develop and evaluate an expert system based on natural language processing in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Quentin; Tvardik, Nastassia; Bouvry, Côme; Kergourlay, Ivan; Bittar, André; Segond, Frédérique; Darmoni, Stefan; Metzger, Marie-Hélène

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the SYNODOS collaborative project was to develop a generic IT solution, combining a medical terminology server, a semantic analyser and a knowledge base. The goal of the project was to generate meaningful epidemiological data for various medical domains from the textual content of French medical records. In the context of this project, we built a care pathway oriented conceptual model and corresponding annotation method to develop and evaluate an expert system's knowledge base. The annotation method is based on a semi-automatic process, using a software application (MedIndex). This application exchanges with a cross-lingual multi-termino-ontology portal. The annotator selects the most appropriate medical code proposed for the medical concept in question by the multi-termino-ontology portal and temporally labels the medical concept according to the course of the medical event. This choice of conceptual model and annotation method aims to create a generic database of facts for the secondary use of electronic health records data. PMID:26262366

  14. Rule based processing of the CD4000, CD3200 and CD Sapphire analyser output using the Cerner Discern Expert Module.

    PubMed

    Burgess, P; Robin, H; Langshaw, M; Kershaw, G; Pathiraja, R; Yuen, S; Coad, C; Xiros, N; Mansy, G; Coleman, R; Brown, R; Gibson, J; Holman, R; Hubbard, J; Wick, V; Lammers, M; Johnson, R; Huffman, K; Bell, J; Ibrahim, A; Estepa, F; Lovegrove, J; Joshua, D

    2009-12-01

    The latest version of our Laboratory Information System haematology laboratory expert system that handles the output of Abbott Cell-Dyn Sapphires, CD4000s and a CD3200 full blood count analyser in three high-volume haematology laboratories is described. The three hospital laboratories use Cerner Millennium Version 2007.02 software and the expert system uses Cerner Millennium Discern Expert rules and some small Cerner Command Language in-house programs. The entire expert system is totally integrated with the area-wide database and has been built and maintained by haematology staff members, as has the haematology database. Using patient demographic data, analyser numeric results, analyser error and morphology flags and previous results for the patient, this expert system decides whether to validate the main full blood count indices and white cell differential, or if the analyser results warrant further operator intervention/investigation before verifying, whether a blood film is required for microscopic review and if abnormal results require phoning to the staff treating the patient. The principles of this expert system can be generalized to different haematology analysers and haematology laboratories that have different workflows and different software. PMID:18691345

  15. Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-01-01

    It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

  16. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1) defining the range of concerns of the public toward different bioremediation strategies and long-term stewardship; (2) creating materials and delivery methods that address bioremediation issues; and (3) assessing the effectiveness of the consensus workshop in identifying concerns about bioremediation and involving the public in a dialogue about their use. After a brief description of the Idaho workshop, we discuss the range of concerns articulated by the participants about bioremediation, discuss the materials and delivery methods used to communicate information about bioremediation, and assess the effectiveness of the consensus workshop. In summary we found that panel members in general: understood complex technical issues, especially when given enough time in a facilitated discussion with experts; are generally accepting of in situ bioremediation, but concerned about costs, safety, and effectiveness of the technology; are concerned equally about technology and decision processes; and liked the consensus workshop approach to learning about bioremediation.

  17. Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-06-01

    It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

  18. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  19. Experts, Dialects, and Discourse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhatt, Rakesh Mohan

    2002-01-01

    Examines "expert" discourse--complexes of signs and practices that organize and legitimize social existence and social reproduction--to demonstrate the ideological process involved in the manufacture of Standard English ideology and its continual duplication as necessitated by the three axiomatic conceptions of the English-sacred imagined…

  20. Recurrent expert networks

    SciTech Connect

    LeBlanc, C.

    1996-12-31

    Research has shown that computational techniques such as neural networks often provide classification abilities that are more accurate than methods which rely on explicit knowledge acquisition alone. On the other hand, because no {open_quotes}reason{close_quotes} for a particular classification can be given when a computational technique has been used, human experts tend to be skeptical of such systems. As a result, many researchers have developed tools, called hybrid systems, which combine the pattern recognition capabilities and parallel processing of neural systems while retaining the domain knowledge encoded in expert systems.

  1. Expert Design of Industrial Systems: Formalizing the Design Process Douglas A. Bodner, T. Govindaraj, Karthik N. Karathur, Natalie F. Zerangue,

    E-print Network

    , warehouses and supply chains (e.g., [12], [13]). This area has witnessed a wealth of published research research. Our approach is to study expert designers as they design facilities, focusing on warehouses specific, we focus on warehouse systems. In our interaction with industry practitioners, it has become

  2. Fracture mechanics expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, E.; Elfer, N.; Casadaban, C.

    1992-01-01

    Attention is given to fracture mechanics, an analytical method used extensively in the National Space Transportation System to conservatively predict the remaining service life of an article when a flaw or a material defect is detected. These analyses are performed on hardware containing material defects that have been detected by various nondestructive inspection techniques. An expert system being developed to streamline the process so that hardware dispositions may be obtained in a timely and consistent manner is discussed. The expert system reduces the potential for errors due to the manual transcription between the various software programs involved in completing a fracture mechanics analysis. NEXPERT Object, the expert system development shell selected for this purpose, allows the various software programs used in fracture mechanics analyses to be accessed and manipulated from the same platform.

  3. Text Mining and Natural Language Processing Approaches for Automatic Categorization of Lay Requests to Web-Based Expert Forums

    PubMed Central

    Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-01-01

    Background Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called “ask the doctor” services. Objective To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. Methods We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website “Rund ums Baby” (“Everything about Babies”) into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions (“subject matter” and “expectations”). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer’s V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. Results According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category “in vitro fertilization (IVF),” 81 (8%) into the category “ovulation,” 79 (8%) into “cycle,” and 57 (6%) into “semen analysis.” These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as “general information” and 351 (36%) as a wish for “treatment recommendations.” The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer’s V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other approaches, 100% precision and 100% recall were realized in 18 (47%) out of the 38 categories in the test sample. For 35 (92%) categories, precision and recall were better than 80%. For some categories, the input variables (ie, “words”) also included variables from other categories, most often with a negative sign. For example, absence of words predictive for “menstruation” was a strong indicator for the category “pregnancy test.” Conclusions Our approach suggests a way of automatically classifying and analyzing unstructured information in Internet expert forums. The technique can perform a preliminary categorization of new requests and help Internet medical experts to better handle the mass of information and to give professional feedback. PMID:19632978

  4. Capital Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  5. An overview of the national immunization policy making process: the role of the Korea expert committee on immunization practices.

    PubMed

    Cho, Hee Yeon

    2012-01-01

    The need for evidence-based decision making in immunization programs has increased due to the presence of multiple health priorities, limited human resources, expensive vaccines, and limited funds. Countries should establish a group of national experts to advise their Ministries of Health. So far, many nations have formed their own National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs). In the Republic of Korea, the Korea Expert Committee on Immunization Practices (KECIP), established by law in the early 1990s, has made many important technical recommendations to contribute to the decline in vaccine preventable diseases and currently functions as a NITAG. It includes 13 core members and 2 non-core members, including a chairperson. Core members usually come from affiliated organizations in internal medicine, pediatrics, obstetrics, microbiology, preventive medicine, nursing and a representative from a consumer group, all of whom serve two year terms. Non-core members comprise two government officials belonging to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) and the Korea Food and Drug Administration. Meetings are held as needed, but at least twice a year, and sub-committees are formed as a resource for gathering, analyzing, and preparing information for the KECIP meetings. Once the sub-committees or the KCDC review the available data, the KECIP members discuss each issue in depth and develop recommendations, usually by a consensus in the meeting. The KECIP publishes national guidelines and immunization schedules that are updated regularly. KECIP's role is essentially consultative and the implementation of their recommendations may depend on the budget or current laws. PMID:22359523

  6. Integrating machine learning with knowledge acquisition through direct interaction with domain experts

    E-print Network

    Webb, Geoff

    Integrating machine learning with knowledge acquisition through direct interaction with domain, Australia Abstract Knowledge elicitation from experts and empirical machine learning are two distinct apprentices have provided environments in which a knowledge engineer may collaborate with a machine learning

  7. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  8. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  9. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  10. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hossain, Shamina S.

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The ?rst method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  11. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  12. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  13. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  14. Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

    PubMed Central

    Billari, F C; Graziani, R; Melilli, E

    2012-01-01

    The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office. PMID:22879704

  15. Getting Started in Library Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borko, Harold

    1987-01-01

    Describes a microcomputer-based expert system, MAPPER, which is being developed to help catalog maps by employing the cognitive processes used by catalogers in applying Anglo American Cataloging Rules, 2nd edition (AACR2). The design process is reviewed, including the choice of a model expert system, MYCIN, and a software package, EXSYS.…

  16. The Development of Expert Face Processing: Are Infants Sensitive to Normal Differences in Second-Order Relational Information?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayden, Angela; Bhatt, Ramesh S.; Reed, Andrea; Corbly, Christine R.; Joseph, Jane E.

    2007-01-01

    Sensitivity to second-order relational information (i.e., spatial relations among features such as the distance between eyes) is a vital part of achieving expertise with face processing. Prior research is unclear on whether infants are sensitive to second-order differences seen in typical human populations. In the current experiments, we examined…

  17. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component hasmore »degraded.« less

  18. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  19. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

  20. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through…

  1. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W.; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills. PMID:25206348

  2. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  3. Local Experts in Social Media 

    E-print Network

    Bachani, Vandana

    2013-12-04

    The problem of finding topic experts on social networking sites has been a continued topic of research. This thesis addresses the problem of identifying local experts in social media systems like Twitter. Local experts are experts with a topical...

  4. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  5. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A Commercial...PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall...

  6. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A Commercial...PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall...

  7. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A Commercial...PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall...

  8. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A Commercial...PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall...

  9. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A Commercial...PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The parties shall...

  10. Forensic experts' perceptions of expert bias.

    PubMed

    Commons, Michael Lamport; Miller, Patrice Marie; Li, Eva Yujia; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    How do expert witnesses perceive the possible biases of their fellow expert witnesses? Participants, who were attendees at a workshop at the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law were asked to rate for their biasing potential a number of situations that might affect the behavior of an opposing expert. A Rasch analysis produced a linear scale as to the perceived biasing potential of these different kinds of situations from the most biasing to the least biasing. Working for only one side in both civil and criminal cases had large scaled values and also were the first factor. In interesting contrast, a) an opposing expert also serving as the litigant's treater and b) an opposing expert being viewed as a "hired gun" (supplying an opinion only for money) were two situations viewed as not very biasing. Order of Hierarchical Complexity also accounted for items from the 1st, 2nd and 3rd factors. The result suggests that the difficulty in understanding the conceptual basis of bias underlies the perception of how biased a behavior or a situation is. The more difficult to understand the questionnaire item, the less biasing its behavior or situation is perceived by participants. PMID:23046867

  11. Testing expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C. L.; Stachowitz, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    Software quality is of primary concern in all large-scale expert system development efforts. Building appropriate validation and test tools for ensuring software reliability of expert systems is therefore required. The Expert Systems Validation Associate (EVA) is a validation system under development at the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center. EVA provides a wide range of validation and test tools to check correctness, consistency, and completeness of an expert system. Testing a major function of EVA. It means executing an expert system with test cases with the intent of finding errors. In this paper, we describe many different types of testing such as function-based testing, structure-based testing, and data-based testing. We describe how appropriate test cases may be selected in order to perform good and thorough testing of an expert system.

  12. EASy: Expert authorizations system

    SciTech Connect

    Altfeld, J.; Landon, D.F.; Daniels, C.J.

    1996-12-31

    Equifax Check Services provides retail merchants and other businesses with quality decisions concerning the acceptability. risk. or fraudulence of customer checks. The greatest percentage of these decisions are provided automatically through on-line links with point-of-sale terminals. When a transaction is suspect, a referral notice is generated directing the merchant to call one of Equifax Check Services` authorization centers for additional processing. This processing considers a wide variety of information unavailable through online processing, thereby giving consumers the greatest possible benefit of doubt prior to declining checks. These high-risk authorizations had historically been handled using a legacy mainframe system involving a high degree of manual intervention. Authorizations agents would complete a lengthy, rigorous training regimen, and be monitored as to their performance. Pursuit of service excellence caused Equifax, in conjunction with Brightware Corporation, to develop the Expert Authorization System (EASy), a rule-based solution for check authorizations that uses an innovative twist on a standard blackboard architecture. EASy was deployed and is used today by as many as 300 concurrent users. By encapsulating extensive domain knowledge, EASy has effectively eliminated authorization errors, provided consistent and replicable decisions, reduced elapsed time to a decision, and reduced the average agent training time from 4-6 weeks to 3 days.

  13. DRAFT: TO APPEAR IN KNOWLEDGEBASED SYSTEMS JOURNAL: SPECIAL ISSUE ON HUMANCOMPUTER COLLABORATION, 1995 Intertwining Knowledge Delivery, Construction, and Elicitation

    E-print Network

    Nakakoji, Kumiyo

    to the task at hand and helps designers uncover and elicit tacit design knowledge, which results of the expert knowledge required for design remains tacit (Polanyi, 1966). Such design activities are best1 DRAFT: TO APPEAR IN KNOWLEDGE­BASED SYSTEMS JOURNAL: SPECIAL ISSUE ON HUMAN

  14. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control for voicing with optimal coping effects in teachers. 1. A process of awareness--an expert's opinion.

    PubMed

    Van Opstal, Magda J M Carola

    2010-01-01

    A learning strategy is presented for eustress-euvoicing, which prevails over distress-disvoicing. It is based on the understanding of the mechanisms of stress-voicing, conceived as a dynamic circular process of interacting entities, i.e. stressors/signals-arousal/activation-emotion-coping-effects (SAECE), which is the rationale for a multidisciplinary approach in coaching professional voice users. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control (SHIPS) is directed by functional analysis and consists of awareness and change. Emotion, a mixture of appraisal, affect and movement, is the pivot in SHIPS. SHIPS with (student) teachers aims at the competence of voicing (V) in an optimal (O) way of coping (C), which means vocal communication that is effective (E) to meet a balance in physical, interpersonal and existential wellness when responding to demands and challenges in the individual teacher's (T) field of communication (VOCE-T). The process of awareness intends to understand the course of multiple interactions in SAECE that condition eustressors and distressors related to (non)-integrated coping. The (student) teacher and coach are conscious and active participants in the process of awareness that is dynamic and evolving and aims at the preparedness to change non-desirable habits and skill modes into VOCE-T. PMID:20093846

  15. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  16. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  17. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  18. Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1988-01-01

    An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge.

  19. Unstructured Direct Elicitation of Decision Rules

    E-print Network

    Ding, Min

    We investigate the feasibility of unstructured direct-elicitation (UDE) of decision rules consumers use to form consideration sets. With incentives to think hard and answer truthfully, tested formats ask respondents to ...

  20. Project Management Patterns to Prevent Schedule Delay Caused by Requirement Elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hori, Shozo; Nakatani, Takako; Katamine, Keiichi; Ubayashi, Naoyasu; Hashimoto, Masaaki

    We propose PM (Project Management) patterns to prevent schedule delays caused by changes in requirements on empirical studies. Changes or late elicitation of requirements during the design, coding and test processes are one of the most serious risks, which may delay project schedules. However, changes and late elicitation of requirements are usually accepted during development processes. Therefore, the PM methods for preventing schedule delays caused by changes and late elicitation of requirements during development processes are an important area of study. In this study, we examined the actual conditions of various projects which succeeded in preventing schedule delays resulting from changes and late elicitation of requirements during development processes. We were able to extract various typical PM techniques for preventing these schedule delays. The techniques, known as “PM patterns”, were also applied to other projects. The patterns were arranged on a two-dimensional framework. We discuss a framework of PM patterns aimed at solving the problems caused by changes in requirements.

  1. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  2. Book Reviews Knowledge Systems and Prolog: A Logical Approach to Expert Systems and Natural Language Processing with SWESIL?), it might have been better to wait until

    E-print Network

    APPROACH TO EXPERT SYSTEMSAND NATURAL LANGUAGEPROCESSING Adrian Walker (ed.); Michael McCord, John F. Sowa inappropriate for any other part of speech (e.g., adjectives and adverbs). Second, it is perhaps most as they anticipate for DLT, if claims like those of Walker and Amsler (based on several months of New York Times text

  3. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-print Network

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  4. Gamma flicker elicits positive affect without awareness.

    PubMed

    Heerebout, Bram T; Tap, A E Yoram; Rotteveel, Mark; Phaf, R Hans

    2013-03-01

    High-frequency oscillations emerged as a neural code for both positive affect and fluent attentional processing from evolutionary simulations with artificial neural networks. Visual 50 Hz flicker, which entrains neural oscillations in the gamma band, has been shown to foster attentional switching, but can it also elicit positive affect? A three-faces display (2-female/1-male or 2-male/1-female) was preceded by a 50, 25, or 0 Hz flicker on the position of the odd-one-out (i.e., the target). Participants decided on the gender (Block 1) or on the subjective valence (Block 2) of this neutral target in an approach-avoidance task, which served as an implicit affective measure. Only the detection of 25 Hz flicker, but not of 50 Hz flicker, was above chance (Block 3). Faces primed by invisible 50 Hz flicker were explicitly evaluated more positively than with 25 Hz or 0 Hz. This gamma flicker also facilitated approach reactions, and inhibited avoidance reactions relative to 25 Hz and 0 Hz flicker in Blocks 1 and 2. Attentional switching was, moreover, enhanced by the 50 Hz flicker. According to the Affect-Gamma hypothesis, also in biological neural networks, high-frequency gamma oscillations may code for positive affect. PMID:22884774

  5. Music can elicit a visual motion aftereffect.

    PubMed

    Hedger, Stephen C; Nusbaum, Howard C; Lescop, Olivier; Wallisch, Pascal; Hoeckner, Berthold

    2013-07-01

    Motion aftereffects (MAEs) are thought to result from the adaptation of both subcortical and cortical systems involved in the processing of visual motion. Recently, it has been reported that the implied motion of static images in combination with linguistic descriptions of motion is sufficient to elicit an MAE, although neither factor alone is thought to directly activate visual motion areas in the brain. Given that the monotonic change of musical pitch is widely recognized in music as a metaphor for vertical motion, we investigated whether prolonged exposure to ascending or descending musical scales can also produce a visual motion aftereffect. After listening to ascending or descending musical scales, participants made decisions about the direction of visual motion in random-dot kinematogram stimuli. Metaphoric motion in the musical stimuli did affect the visual direction judgments, in that repeated exposure to rising or falling musical scales shifted participants' sensitivity to visual motion in the opposite direction. The finding that music can induce an MAE suggests that the subjective interpretation of monotonic pitch change as motion may have a perceptual foundation. PMID:23456973

  6. Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements

    PubMed Central

    O’Leary, Rebecca A.; Low-Choy, Samantha; Fisher, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    When limited or no observed data are available, it is often useful to obtain expert knowledge about parameters of interest, including point estimates and the uncertainty around these values. However, it is vital to elicit this information appropriately in order to obtain valid estimates. This is particularly important when the experts’ uncertainty about these estimates is strongly skewed, for instance when their best estimate is the same as the lowest value they consider possible. Also this is important when interest is in the aggregation of elicited values. In this paper, we compare alternative distributions for describing such estimates. The distributions considered include the lognormal, mirror lognormal, Normal and scaled Beta. The case study presented here involves estimation of the number of species in coral reefs, which requires eliciting counts within broader taxonomic groups, with highly skewed uncertainty estimates. This paper shows substantial gain in using the scaled Beta distribution, compared with Normal or lognormal distributions. We demonstrate that, for this case study on counting species, applying the novel encoding methodology developed in this paper can facilitate the acquisition of more rigorous estimates of (hierarchical) count data and credible bounds. The approach can also be applied to the more general case of enumerating a sampling frame via elicitation. PMID:26517835

  7. Three image experts which help distinguish lung tumors from non-tumors. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Lampeter, W.

    1984-02-01

    The design of three vision-expert programs is described. The vision experts are based on appearance models of objects in a typical chest radiograph which were derived using information from human experts. Each expert is based on a different technical concept. The rib expert uses relational constraints on parameter (Hough transform) space to determine if a rib has been detected; the vascularity expert uses a back-projected Hough transform; and the nodule expert uses features which were derived from studies of the nodule recognition process of radiologistics. The efficacy of the descriptive models and their implementations are evaluated. The process of development and implementation of image experts are discussed.

  8. Inductive Acquisition of Expert Knowledge 

    E-print Network

    Muggleton, Stephen H.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which ( 1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the ...

  9. Expert systems for Space Station automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Georgeff, M. P.; Firschein, O.

    1985-01-01

    The expert systems required for automating key functions of the Manned Space Station (MSS) are explored. It is necessary that the expert systems developed be flexible, degrade gracefully in the case of a failure, and be able to work with incomplete data. The AI systems will have to perform interpretation and diagnosis, design, prediction and induction, and monitoring and control functions. Both quantitative and qualitative reasoning capabilities need improvements, as do automatic verification techniques, explanation and learning capabilities, and the use of metaknowledge, i. e., knowledge about the knowledge contained in the knowledge base. Information retrieval, fault isolation and manufacturing process control demonstrations are needed to validate expert systems for the MSS.

  10. Evaluation of high-level waste pretreatment processes with an approximate reasoning model

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Agnew, S.F.

    1999-04-01

    The development of an approximate-reasoning (AR)-based model to analyze pretreatment options for high-level waste is presented. AR methods are used to emulate the processes used by experts in arriving at a judgment. In this paper, the authors first consider two specific issues in applying AR to the analysis of pretreatment options. They examine how to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence to infer the acceptability of a process result using the example of cesium content in low-level waste. They then demonstrate the use of simple physical models to structure expert elicitation and to produce inferences consistent with a problem involving waste particle size effects.

  11. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  12. Do Nondomain Experts Enlist the Strategies of Domain Experts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drabenstott, Karen M.

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of information-seeking strategies of domain experts and nondomain experts (undergraduates) focuses on a study at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor that investigated whether nondomain experts enlisted the strategies of domain experts when using information gateways on the library Web page; if so, how they learned about them; and…

  13. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D.; Hand, Un Kyong |

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  14. Intelligent interfaces for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Villarreal, James A.; Wang, Lui

    1988-01-01

    Vital to the success of an expert system is an interface to the user which performs intelligently. A generic intelligent interface is being developed for expert systems. This intelligent interface was developed around the in-house developed Expert System for the Flight Analysis System (ESFAS). The Flight Analysis System (FAS) is comprised of 84 configuration controlled FORTRAN subroutines that are used in the preflight analysis of the space shuttle. In order to use FAS proficiently, a person must be knowledgeable in the areas of flight mechanics, the procedures involved in deploying a certain payload, and an overall understanding of the FAS. ESFAS, still in its developmental stage, is taking into account much of this knowledge. The generic intelligent interface involves the integration of a speech recognizer and synthesizer, a preparser, and a natural language parser to ESFAS. The speech recognizer being used is capable of recognizing 1000 words of connected speech. The natural language parser is a commercial software package which uses caseframe instantiation in processing the streams of words from the speech recognizer or the keyboard. The systems configuration is described along with capabilities and drawbacks.

  15. Elicitation of macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of channel catfish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, J.A.; Klesius, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Four chemicals were evaluated for elicitation of macrophages in peritoneal cavities of 250-300g healthy channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Cellular exudates were collected at 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 20 d following intraperitoneal injections with squalene, Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA), goat serum, thioglycollate, or as a control, phosphate-buffered saline. Injection with either squalene or FIA induced significantly greater (P ??? 0.0001) macrophage recruitment than the other chemicals. The effectiveness of squalene and FIA was compared further by macrophage collection daily for 7 d. Squalene and FIA elicited similarly high macrophage responses (P ??? 0.0450), the highest being 3.43 x 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 2.4 x l06) at 99% purity at day 2 and 2.1 X 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 0.7 x 106) at day 14 at 80% purity, respectively. In both experiments, the time after injection was not statistically significant, nor was there an interaction between time and chemicals. The occurrence of cells other than macrophages decreased with time to yield macrophage recoveries of 47-99% for squalene and 30-80% for FIA. Two subsets of macrophages were observed by means of flow cytometry. As demonstrated by chemiluminescence, the squalene-elicited cells produced high-energy oxygen compounds important to the phagocytic process.

  16. Approaching threats elicit a freeze-like response in humans.

    PubMed

    Sagliano, Laura; Cappuccio, Angela; Trojano, Luigi; Conson, Massimiliano

    2014-02-21

    Freezing is one of the most widely recognized defensive reactions to approaching threats in animals. Here we tested whether the same stimuli can elicit freeze-like responses in healthy humans as well. We used a modified version of the two-frame apparent motion paradigm, in which both size and location of a stimulus within a background were manipulated; by these means, participants perceived the stimuli as approaching or receding. In Experiment 1, we showed that implicitly processed approaching threats (e.g., spiders or snakes) elicited a stronger freeze-like response (operationalized as slower reaction times) with respect to receding threats; freezing was significantly related to higher levels of participants' state anxiety. In Experiment 2, approaching/threatening animals were explicitly judged as more threatening than receding ones. Finally, in two further control experiments we observed that the same manipulation of stimuli's size and location, but in absence of apparent motion, did not affect freezing (Experiment 3) or explicit threat judgements (Experiment 4). The present findings demonstrated that approaching threats are critical to elicit freezing in humans, in line with animals' behaviour. PMID:24373990

  17. Expert systems in civil engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Kostem, C.N.; Maher, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a symposium on expert systems in civil engineering. Topics considered at the symposium included problem solving using expert system techniques, construction schedule analysis, decision making and risk analysis, seismic risk analysis systems, an expert system for inactive hazardous waste site characterization, an expert system for site selection, knowledge engineering, and knowledge-based expert systems in seismic analysis.

  18. Knowledge elicitation techniques and application to nuclear plant maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, E. Kevin

    The new millennium has brought with it the opportunity of global trade which in turn requires the utmost in efficiency from each individual industry. This includes the nuclear power industry, a point which was emphasized when the electrical generation industry began to be de regulated across North America the late 1990s and re-emphasized when the northeast power grid of North America collapsed in the summer of 2003. This dissertation deals with reducing the cost of the maintenance function of Candu nuclear power plants and initiating a strong link between universities and the Canadian nuclear industry. Various forms of RCM (reliability-centred maintenance) have been the tools of choice in industry for improving the maintenance function during the last 20 years. In this project, pilot studies, conducted at Bruce Power between 1999 and 2005, and reported on in this dissertation, lay out a path to implement statistical improvements as the next step after RCM in reducing the cost of the maintenance. Elicitation protocols, designed for the age group being elicited, address the much-documented issue of a lack of data. Clear, graphical, inferential statistical interfaces are accentuated and developed to aid in building the teams required to implement the various methodologies and to help in achieving funding targets. Graphical analysis and Crow/AMSAA (army materials systems analysis activity) plots are developed and demonstrated from the point of view of justifying the expenditures of cost reduction efforts. This dissertation ultimately speaks to the great opportunity being presented by this approach at this time: of capturing the baby-boom generation's huge pool of knowledge before those people retire. It is expected that the protocols and procedures referenced here will have applicability across the many disciplines where collecting expert information from a similar age group is required.

  19. Toward disaster-resilient cities: characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.

    PubMed

    Chang, Stephanie E; McDaniels, Timothy; Fox, Jana; Dhariwal, Rajan; Longstaff, Holly

    2014-03-01

    Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors. PMID:24152135

  20. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  1. RELIABILITY OF TWO REMUS-100 AUVS BASED ON FAULT LOG ANALYSIS AND ELICITED EXPERT JUDGMENT

    E-print Network

    Griffiths, Gwyn

    is especially important for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) that have made the transition to operational aggregation as in this paper. 1. Introduction Reliability is especially important for autonomous underwater the UAV community terms the mishap rate. Mishap is defined as the loss of an aircraft, loss of human life

  2. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C., LLNL

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  3. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

    1998-03-30

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  4. A framework for nuclear facility safeguard evaluation using probabilistic methods and expert elicitation

    E-print Network

    Iamsumang, Chonlagarn

    2010-01-01

    With the advancement of the next generation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, concerns of the effectiveness of nuclear facility safeguards have been increasing due to the inclusion of highly enriched material and reprocessing ...

  5. Report cards for manholes: Eliciting expert feedback for a learning task

    E-print Network

    Radeva, Axinia

    We present a manhole profiling tool, developed as part of the Columbia/Con Edison machine learning project on manhole event prediction, and discuss its role in evaluating our machine learning model in three important ways: ...

  6. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  7. An Exploratory Study of Expert Group Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubel, Deborah J.; Kline, William B.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the results of a grounded theory exploration that described expert group leaders' experiences and perceptions during the process of leading groups in terms of influence of experience, preexisting knowledge and attitudes, and in-the-moment leadership process. The discussion presents implications for practice, counselor…

  8. Ask an Expert.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trautman, Steve; Klein, Kate

    1993-01-01

    Offers guidelines for determining when and how to recruit subject matter experts (SMEs) and for ensuring that they deliver high quality training. Considers common problems of SMEs, such as giving too much information, conflicts with their job commitments, and stage fright. (JOW)

  9. Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Inspections by Combining Project Data and Expert Opinion

    E-print Network

    Briand, Lionel C.

    the whole development life-cycle in a realistic manner. Such models must not only represent accurately are worthwhile. This work proposes a rigorous but practical way to do so. In particular, a meaningful model-effectiveness, expert knowledge elicitation, Monte-Carlo simulation 1 INTRODUCTION It has been long recognized

  10. Teaching Evaluations and Comments of Pre-Service Music Teachers regarding Expert and Novice Choral Conductors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Christopher M.; Price, Harry E.; Schroeder, Linda K.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to determine if pre-service music educators could discriminate between novice and expert choral directors irrespective of the proficiency of the choral ensemble. A secondary purpose was to compare study results elicited in the USA with those from participants in Europe, South America and Asia. Previous research…

  11. Information/Knowledge Acquisition Methods for Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Heng-Li

    1995-01-01

    Compares information requirement-elicitation (IRE) methods for decision support systems (DSS) with knowledge acquisition (KA) methods for expert systems (ES) development. The definition and architectures of ES and DSS are compared and the systems' development cycles and IRE/KA methods are discussed. Differences are noted between ES and DSS…

  12. Auditory Evoked Fields Elicited by Spectral, Temporal, and Spectral–Temporal Changes in Human Cerebral Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Teismann, Henning; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Pantev, Christo

    2012-01-01

    Natural sounds contain complex spectral components, which are temporally modulated as time-varying signals. Recent studies have suggested that the auditory system encodes spectral and temporal sound information differently. However, it remains unresolved how the human brain processes sounds containing both spectral and temporal changes. In the present study, we investigated human auditory evoked responses elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral–temporal sound changes by means of magnetoencephalography. The auditory evoked responses elicited by the spectral–temporal change were very similar to those elicited by the spectral change, but those elicited by the temporal change were delayed by 30–50?ms and differed from the others in morphology. The results suggest that human brain responses corresponding to spectral sound changes precede those corresponding to temporal sound changes, even when the spectral and temporal changes occur simultaneously. PMID:22593751

  13. Auditory evoked fields elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral-temporal changes in human cerebral cortex.

    PubMed

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Teismann, Henning; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Pantev, Christo

    2012-01-01

    Natural sounds contain complex spectral components, which are temporally modulated as time-varying signals. Recent studies have suggested that the auditory system encodes spectral and temporal sound information differently. However, it remains unresolved how the human brain processes sounds containing both spectral and temporal changes. In the present study, we investigated human auditory evoked responses elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral-temporal sound changes by means of magnetoencephalography. The auditory evoked responses elicited by the spectral-temporal change were very similar to those elicited by the spectral change, but those elicited by the temporal change were delayed by 30-50?ms and differed from the others in morphology. The results suggest that human brain responses corresponding to spectral sound changes precede those corresponding to temporal sound changes, even when the spectral and temporal changes occur simultaneously. PMID:22593751

  14. Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

    1991-01-01

    Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

  15. Expert Secondary Inclusive Classroom Management 

    E-print Network

    Montague, Marcia

    2011-02-22

    The purpose of this study was to gain an understanding of the management practices of expert secondary general education teachers in inclusive classrooms. Specifically, expert teachers of classrooms who included students with severe cognitive...

  16. Overproduction timing errors in expert dancers.

    PubMed

    Minvielle-Moncla, Joëlle; Audiffren, Michel; Macar, Françoise; Vallet, Cécile

    2008-07-01

    The authors investigated how expert dancers achieve accurate timing under various conditions. They designed the conditions to interfere with the dancers' attention to time and to test the explanation of the interference effect provided in the attentional model of time processing. Participants were 17 expert contemporary dancers who performed a freely chosen duration while walking and executing a bilateral cyclic arm movement over a given distance. The dancers reproduced that duration in different situations of interference. The process yielded temporal overproductions, validating the attentional model and extending its application to expert populations engaged in complex motor situations. The finding that the greatest overproduction occurred in the transfer-with-improvisation condition suggests that improvisation within a time deadline requires specific training. PMID:18628106

  17. Make yourself an expert.

    PubMed

    Leonard, Dorothy; Barton, Gavin; Barton, Michelle

    2013-04-01

    Almost every organization has people it can't do without--specialists with "deep smarts," who are the go-to experts on critical issues. But because their knowledge is experienced-based, it's often instinctive and unarticulated, and never gets passed on. Capturing it is a challenge for both the organization and for colleagues who wish to become in-house authorities themselves. This article offers a methodical system for acquiring deep smarts from an expert. It involves observing that person extensively to understand what makes him successful, practicing the behaviors he exhibits on your own, partnering with him to solve problems, and ultimately taking responsibility for some of his tasks. Describing the experiences of one executive as she takes this journey with a mentor, the authors show how you too can gain the wisdom that will make you indispensable to your firm. PMID:23593772

  18. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  19. Expert and Knowledge Based Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demaid, Adrian; Edwards, Lyndon

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the nature and current state of knowledge-based systems and expert systems. Describes an expert system from the viewpoints of a computer programmer and an applications expert. Addresses concerns related to materials selection and forecasts future developments in the teaching of materials engineering. (ML)

  20. Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

    1990-01-01

    We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

  1. Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

    2003-01-01

    Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

  2. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Reece, Wendy Jane

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling.

  3. Encoding prior experts judgments to improve risk analysis of extreme hydrological events via POT modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parent, Eric; Bernier, Jacques

    2003-12-01

    One of the main decisions to be made in operational hydrology is to estimate design floods for safety purposes. These floods are generally much rare events that have already been systematically recorded and consequently the results of any estimation process are subject to high levels of uncertainty. When adopting the frequentist framework of probability, the so called 'respect of scientific objectivity' shall forbid the hydrologists to introduce prior knowledge such as quantified hydrological expertise into the analysis. However, such an expertise can significantly improve the capability of a probabilistic model to extrapolate extreme value events. The Bayesian paradigm offers coherent tools to quantify the prior knowledge of experts. This paper develops an inference procedure for the peak over threshold (POT) model, using semi-conjugate informative priors. Such prior structures are convenient to encode a wide variety of prior expertise. They avoid recourse to Monte Carlo Markov Chain techniques which are presently the standard for Bayesian analyses, but such algorithms may be uneasy to implement. We show that prior expertise can significantly reduce uncertainty on design values. Using the Garonne case study with a sample of systematic data spanning over the period 1913-1977, we point out that: (1) the elicitation approach for subjective prior information can be based on quantities with a definite practical hydrological meaning for the expert; (2) with respect to the usual Poisson-Generalized Pareto model, a semi-conjugate prior offers a flexible structure to assess expert knowledge about extreme behavior of the river flows. In addition, it leads to quasi-analytical formulations; (3) tractable algorithms can be implemented to approximate the prior uncertainty about POT parameters into these semi conjugate distribution forms via simple Monte Carlo simulations and normal approximations; (4) the design value and its credible interval are notably changed when incorporating prior knowledge into the risk analysis.

  4. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  5. Expert system for scheduling simulation lab sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lund, Chet

    1990-01-01

    Implementation and results of an expert system used for scheduling session requests for the Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) laboratory at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) are discussed. Weekly session requests are received from astronaut crew trainers, procedures developers, engineering assessment personnel, software developers, and various others who wish to access the computers, scene generators, and other simulation equipment available to them in the SES lab. The expert system under discussion is comprised of a data acquisition portion - two Pascal programs run on a personal computer - and a CLIPS program installed on a minicomputer. A brief introduction to the SES lab and its scheduling background is given. A general overview of the system is provided, followed by a detailed description of the constraint-reduction process and of the scheduler itself. Results from a ten-week trial period using this approach are discussed. Finally, a summary of the expert system's strengths and shortcomings are provided.

  6. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

  7. GRAPE: An Expert Review Assignment Component for Scientific Conference

    E-print Network

    Di Mauro, Nicola

    GRAPE: An Expert Review Assignment Component for Scientific Conference Management Systems Nicola Di {ndm, basile, ferilli}@di.uniba.it Abstract. This paper describes GRAPE, an expert component for a sci the possibility to use these preferences. This paper describes GRAPE (Global Review Assignment Processing Engine

  8. Antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal in humans.

    PubMed

    Gorelick, David A; Goodwin, Robert S; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M; Darwin, William D; Kelly, Deanna L; McMahon, Robert P; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2011-10-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral ??-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40-120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0-8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses. PMID:21869692

  9. Elicitation of secondary metabolism in actinomycetes.

    PubMed

    Abdelmohsen, Usama Ramadan; Grkovic, Tanja; Balasubramanian, Srikkanth; Kamel, Mohamed Salah; Quinn, Ronald J; Hentschel, Ute

    2015-11-01

    Genomic sequence data have revealed the presence of a large fraction of putatively silent biosynthetic gene clusters in the genomes of actinomycetes that encode for secondary metabolites, which are not detected under standard fermentation conditions. This review focuses on the effects of biological (co-cultivation), chemical, as well as molecular elicitation on secondary metabolism in actinomycetes. Our review covers the literature until June 2014 and exemplifies the diversity of natural products that have been recovered by such approaches from the phylum Actinobacteria. PMID:26087412

  10. Eliciting promises from children reduces cheating.

    PubMed

    Heyman, Gail D; Fu, Genyue; Lin, Jianyan; Qian, Miao K; Lee, Kang

    2015-11-01

    Widespread cheating can undermine rules that are necessary for maintaining social order. Preventing cheating can be a challenge, especially with regard to children, who as a result of their limited executive function skills may have particular difficulty with resisting temptation to cheat. We examined one approach designed to help children resist this temptation: eliciting a verbal commitment to not cheat. We tested 4- to 7-year-olds (total N = 330) and found that starting at 5 years of age, a verbal commitment to not cheat led to a substantial reduction in cheating. The results suggest that verbal commitments can be used to help children overcome temptations and comply with rules. PMID:26074407

  11. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling an dynamic replanning.

  12. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling and dynamic replanning.

  13. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential. PMID:24730171

  14. Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

    2014-10-01

    Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

  15. Calculating the Information Content of an Information Process for a Domain Expert Using Shannon's Mathematical Theory of Communication: A Preliminary Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cole, Charles

    1997-01-01

    Discussion of information as a process focuses on a conceptual exercise for calculating the information content of an information process. Topics include Bertram Brookes' fundamental equation; Claude Shannon's mathematical theory of communication; set of a priori alternatives; knowledge structures; and an example of an archaeologist's information…

  16. Tumor-Elicited Inflammation and Colorectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Kepeng; Karin, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The link between chronic inflammation and cancer has long been suspected, due to the pioneering work of Rudolf Virchow over 150 years ago. Yet the causal relationship between inflammation and cancer was only deciphered in the past decade or so, using animal models of various cancers. Up to 20% of all human cancers result from chronic inflammation and persistent infections. Proinflammatory cytokines and tumor-infiltrating myeloid and immune cells play critical roles in almost every developmental stages of inflammation-induced cancers, from initiation, promotion, and progression to malignant metastasis. However, even in cancers with no preceding inflammation, inflammatory cells infiltrate tumor stroma and contribute to cancer development. Such "tumor-elicited inflammation" further emphasizes the importance of inflammation in different types of cancers, including that of the colon. In this review, we summarize our current knowledge of the function and induction mechanisms of inflammatory cytokines during colorectal cancer development, and hope to provide insight into the development of novel anticancer therapies by modulating tumor-elicited inflammation. PMID:26216633

  17. Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

    1988-01-01

    Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

  18. An Expert Map of Gambling Risk Perception.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns. PMID:25060132

  19. Building expert systems: Cognitive emulation

    SciTech Connect

    Slatter, P.E.

    1987-01-01

    This work explores the questions and issues surrounding the capacity of expert systems to emulate human thinking and problem-solving abilities, the extent to which this is possible, and the desirability and limitations involved in applying this new technology. Maintaining a balance between theoretical and practical issues, it reviews psychological research into human expert cognition and discusses the formal arguments for and against cognitive emulation in expert system design. Also analyzes in detail the factors likely to promote or constrain this strategy. Includes a critical survey of expert systems research which outlines the implications of the emulation approach to knowledge acquisition and representation.

  20. An Expert Fault Diagnosis System for Vehicle Air Conditioning Product Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, C. F.; Tee, B. T.; Khalil, S. N.; Chen, W.; Rauterberg, G. W. M.

    2015-09-01

    The paper describes the development of the vehicle air-conditioning fault diagnosis system in automotive industries with expert system shell. The main aim of the research is to diagnose the problem of new vehicle air-conditioning system development process and select the most suitable solution to the problems. In the vehicle air-conditioning manufacturing industry, process can be very costly where an expert and experience personnel needed in certain circumstances. The expert of in the industry will retire or resign from time to time. When the expert is absent, their experience and knowledge is difficult to retrieve or lost forever. Expert system is a convenient method to replace expert. By replacing the expert with expert system, the accuracy of the processes will be increased compared to the conventional way. Therefore, the quality of product services that are produced will be finer and better. The inputs for the fault diagnosis are based on design data and experience of the engineer.

  1. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

  2. Elicitation: a tool for enriching the bioactive composition of foods.

    PubMed

    Baenas, Nieves; García-Viguera, Cristina; Moreno, Diego A

    2014-01-01

    Elicitation is a good strategy to induce physiological changes and stimulate defense or stress-induced responses in plants. The elicitor treatments trigger the synthesis of phytochemical compounds in fruits, vegetables and herbs. These metabolites have been widely investigated as bioactive compounds responsible of plant cell adaptation to the environment, specific organoleptic properties of foods, and protective effects in human cells against oxidative processes in the development of neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases and certain types of cancer. Biotic (biological origin), abiotic (chemical or physical origin) elicitors and phytohormones have been applied alone or in combinations, in hydroponic solutions or sprays, and in different selected time points of the plant growth or during post-harvest. Understanding how plant tissues and their specific secondary metabolic pathways respond to specific treatments with elicitors would be the basis for designing protocols to enhance the production of secondary metabolites, in order to produce quality and healthy fresh foods. PMID:25255755

  3. An expert system for shuttle and satellite radar tracker scheduling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Paul

    1988-01-01

    This expert system automates and optimizes radar tracker selection for shuttle missions. The expert system is written in the FORTRAN and C languages on an HP9000. It is portable to any UNIX machine having both ANSI-77 FORTRAN and C language compilers. It is a rule based expert system that selects tracking stations from the S-band and C-band radar stations and the TDRSS east and TDRSS west satellites under a variety of conditions. The expert system was prototyped on the Symbolics in the Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) and ZetaLisp. After the prototype demonstrated an acceptable automation of the process of selecting tracking stations to support the orbit determination requirements of Shuttle missions, the basic ART rules of the prototype were ported to the HP9000 computer using the CLIPS language. CLIPS is a forward-chaining rule-based expert system language written in C. Prior to the development of this expert system the selection process was a tedious manual process and expensive in terms of human resources. Manual tracking station selection required from 1 to 2 man weeks per mission; whereas the expert system can complete the selection process in about 2 hours.

  4. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  5. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  6. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  7. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  8. Expertise in Teaching: Expert Pedagogues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavely, Carolyn; And Others

    "The purpose of this article is to report a review of the developing empirical literature to explain "expert" teacher behavior, by analogy, from the cognitive psychology expertise literature. Emphasized is a review of the expert-novice cognitive psychology literature, encompassing the research on: chess, and other games; physics, medicine, and…

  9. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  10. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Rutherford, Edward S; Zhang, Hongyan; Mason, Doran M; Lodge, David M

    2015-02-01

    Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance-based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision-support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available. PMID:25132396

  11. Being an expert witness in geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Edward A.

    2015-02-01

    Gathering your own data and coming to your own conclusion through scientific research and discovery is the most important principle to remember when being an expert witness in geomorphology. You can only be questioned in deposition and trial in your area of expertise. You are qualified as an expert by education, knowledge, and experience. You will have absolutely nothing to fear from cross-examination if you are prepared and confident about your work. Being an expert witness requires good communication skills. When you make a presentation, speak clearly and avoid jargon, especially when addressing a jury. Keep in mind that when you take on a case that may eventually go to court as a lawsuit, the entire process, with appeals and so forth, can take several years. Therefore, being an expert may become a long-term commitment of your time and energy. You may be hired by either side in a dispute, but your job is the same - determine the scientific basis of the case and explain your scientific reasoning to the lawyers, the judge, and the jury. Your work, including pre-trial investigations, often determines what the case will be based on. The use of science in the discovery part of an investigation is demonstrated from a California case involving the Ventura River, where building of a flood control levee restricted flow to a narrower channel, increasing unit stream power as well as potential for bank erosion and landsliding.

  12. The Expert System Designed to Improve Customer Satisfaction

    E-print Network

    Devi, P Isakki alias

    2011-01-01

    Customer Relationship Management becomes a leading business strategy in highly competitive business environment. It aims to enhance the performance of the businesses by improving the customer satisfaction and loyalty. The objective of this paper is to improve customer satisfaction on product's colors and design with the help of the expert system developed by using Artificial Neural Networks. The expert system's role is to capture the knowledge of the experts and the data from the customer requirements, and then, process the collected data and form the appropriate rules for choosing product's colors and design. In order to identify the hidden pattern of the customer's needs, the Artificial Neural Networks technique has been applied to classify the colors and design based upon a list of selected information. Moreover, the expert system has the capability to make decisions in ranking the scores of the colors and design presented in the selection. In addition, the expert system has been validated with a different...

  13. Expert system aid for military finance

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Meador, M.

    1987-09-14

    Historically, budget preparation processes have been difficult to accomplish. Errors and inconsistencies cause problems for the analyst during budget review. This paper discusses the development and testing of an expert system to aid budget preparation. The prototyping tool, its capabilities, and their application are discussed. Shown are the pilot testing procedures and their role in system development. Current status and enhancements (including software updates and future testing) are also presented. 12 refs., 3 figs.

  14. Filtering information from human experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendel, Max B.; Sheridan, Thomas B.

    1989-01-01

    The authors propose a model, or filter, for debiasing opinions from multiple experts and combining them into a single consistent estimate of some variable of interest. A distinguishing feature of the approach consists of making the calibration of experts an integral part of filtering. This enables the filter to learn from previous experience with the experts. The theoretical development takes a Bayesian perspective, using de Finetti's (1964) notion of exchangeability. Experimental results with a preliminary computer implementation of the filter show that its estimates are better than those from comparable filters that do not involve calibration.

  15. How lawyers view psychiatric experts.

    PubMed

    Reid, William H; Skip Simpson, J D

    2012-11-01

    Good lawyers look for integrity in their expert consultants and expert witnesses. They need truthful, accurate information to help them assess and frame cases, win or settle them favorably, and/or withdraw when the case has little merit. Experts should be well qualified to review, interpret, and eventually testify credibly about their portions of the case. They should be able to work with lawyers in the lawyers' own arenas (e.g., courts, hearings) and to convey their opinions to others, such as juries, clearly and without unnecessary distractions. PMID:23160250

  16. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

  17. Affective Speech Elicited With a Computer Game Tom Johnstone

    E-print Network

    Reading, University of

    Affective Speech Elicited With a Computer Game Tom Johnstone University of Western Australia the degree to which emotional changes in speech reflect factors other than arousal, such as valence, the authors used a computer game to induce natural emotional speech. Voice samples were elicited following

  18. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and physiological (heart…

  19. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  20. Essays on the principal-expert problem

    E-print Network

    Zermeño Vallés, Luis G. (Luis Guillermo)

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation studies the problem of motivating an expert to help a principal take a decision. The first chapter examines a principal-expert model in which the only source of friction is that the expert must be induced ...

  1. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  2. Partial belief and expert testimony

    E-print Network

    Briggs, Rachael (Rachael Amy)

    2009-01-01

    My dissertation investigates two questions from within a partial belief framework: First, when and how should deference to experts or other information sources be qualified? Second, how closely is epistemology related to ...

  3. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  4. Affective Monitoring: A Generic Mechanism for Affect Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Phaf, R. Hans; Rotteveel, Mark

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we sketch a new framework for affect elicitation, which is based on previous evolutionary and connectionist modeling and experimental work from our group. Affective monitoring is considered a local match–mismatch process within a module of the neural network. Negative affect is raised instantly by mismatches, incongruency, disfluency, novelty, incoherence, and dissonance, whereas positive affect follows from matches, congruency, fluency, familiarity, coherence, and resonance, at least when an initial mismatch can be solved quickly. Affective monitoring is considered an evolutionary-early conflict and change detection process operating at the same level as, for instance, attentional selection. It runs in parallel and imparts affective flavor to emotional behavior systems, which involve evolutionary-prepared stimuli and action tendencies related to for instance defensive, exploratory, attachment, or appetitive behavior. Positive affect is represented in the networks by high-frequency oscillations, presumably in the gamma band. Negative affect corresponds to more incoherent lower-frequency oscillations, presumably in the theta band. For affect to become conscious, large-scale synchronization of the oscillations over the network and the construction of emotional experiences are required. These constructions involve perceptions of bodily states and action tendencies, but also appraisals as well as efforts to regulate the emotion. Importantly, affective monitoring accompanies every kind of information processing, but conscious emotions, which result from the later integration of affect in a cognitive context, are much rarer events. PMID:22403557

  5. CARD No. 26 Expert Judgment

    E-print Network

    -I-17), April 17, 1997 (Docket A-93-02, Item II-I-25), and April 25, 1997 (Docket A-93-02, Item II-I-27CARD No. 26 Expert Judgment 26.A.1 BACKGROUND The requirements of Section 194.26 apply to expert, physical constants, etc.). EPA requested in letters to DOE dated March 19, 1997 (Docket A-93-02, Item II

  6. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    E-print Network

    Wu, Rongcong

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition ...

  7. The Expert Project Management System (EPMS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty

    1986-01-01

    Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.

  8. The Appropriateness of Renal Angioplasty. The ANPARIA Software: A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Gerbaud, Laurent; Manhes, Geraud; Debourse, Juliette; Gouby, Gerald Glanddier, Phyllis-Yvonne; Vader, John-Paul; Boyer, Louis Deteix, Patrice

    2008-11-15

    Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size >7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis ({>=}70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anpariahttp://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anparia/). In numerous clinical situations uncertainty remains as to whether PTRA prevents deterioration of renal function.

  9. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. PMID:25725910

  10. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  11. Eliciting and detecting affect in covert and ethically sensitive situations

    E-print Network

    Davis, Philip Charles

    2005-01-01

    There is growing interest in creating systems that can sense the affective state of a user for a variety of applications. As a result, a large number of studies have been conducted with the goals of eliciting specific ...

  12. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. PMID:23062586

  13. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  14. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  15. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  16. User interfaces to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, A.; Emrich, M.L.

    1988-10-01

    Expert Systems are becoming increasingly popular in environments where the user is not well versed in computers or the subject domain. They offer expert advice and can also explain their lines of reasoning. As these systems are applied to highly technical areas, they become complex and large. Therefore, User Systems Interfaces (USIs) become critical. This paper discusses recent technologies that can be applied to improved user communication. In particular, bar menus/graphics, mouse interfaces, touch screens, and voice links will be highlighted. Their applications in the context of SOFTMAN (The Software Manager Apprentice) a knowledge-based system are discussed. 18 refs., 2 figs.

  17. Elicitation of Casbene Synthetase Activity in Castor Bean 1

    PubMed Central

    Bruce, Robert J.; West, Charles A.

    1982-01-01

    Endopolygalacturonase isolated from culture filtrates of the fungus Rhizopus stolonifer was shown previously to act as an elicitor of biosynthetic capacity for the antifungal agent, casbene, in castor bean (Ricinus communis L.) seedlings (S.-C. Lee, C.A. West 1981 Plant Physiology 67:633-639). Selective amidation of exposed carboxyl groups of the pure fungal endopolygalacturonase using intermediate activation with a water-soluble carbodiimide under mild conditions leads to inactivation of its enzymic activity. Tests of active and partially inactivated preparations of the enzyme reveal a close correlation between the levels of catalytic and elicitor activities. This suggests that the catalytic activity of the enzyme is necessary for its function as an elicitor. Treatment of the cell-free particulate fraction of homogenates of castor bean seedlings with the active fungal endopolygalacturonase results in the production of a heat-stable, water-soluble component which is highly active as an elicitor of casbene synthetase activity. Several additional lines of evidence, including the susceptibility of the heat-stable elicitor fraction to partial inactivation following prolonged treatment with endopolygalacturonase, indicate that the heat-stable elicitor is most likely a pectic fragment of the plant cell wall and that it is a required intermediate in the process of elicitation of casbene synthetase activity by the fungal endopolygalacturonase. PMID:16662367

  18. Social conflicts elicit an N400-like component.

    PubMed

    Huang, Yi; Kendrick, Keith M; Yu, Rongjun

    2014-12-01

    When people have different opinions, they often adjust their own attitude to match that of others, known as social conformity. How social conflicts trigger subsequent conformity remains unclear. One possibility is that a conflict with the group opinion is perceived as a violation of social information, analogous to using wrong grammar, and activates conflict monitoring and adjustment mechanisms. Using event related potential (ERP) recording combined with a face attractiveness judgment task, we investigated the neural encoding of social conflicts. We found that social conflicts elicit an N400-like negative deflection, being more negative for conflict with group opinions than no-conflict condition. The social conflict related signals also have a bi-directional profile similar to reward prediction error signals: it was more negative for under-estimation (i.e. one?s own ratings were smaller than group ratings) than over-estimation, and the larger the differences between ratings, the larger the N400 amplitude. The N400 effects were significantly diminished in the non-social condition. We conclude that social conflicts are encoded in a bidirectional fashion in the N400-like component, similar to the pattern of reward-based prediction error signals. Our findings also suggest that the N400, a well-established ERP component encoding semantic violation, might be involved in social conflict processing and social learning. PMID:25446967

  19. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain

    PubMed Central

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define “expertise” from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of “pure” mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

  20. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain.

    PubMed

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define "expertise" from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of "pure" mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

  1. ESKAPE/CF: A knowledge-acquisition tool for expert systems using cognitive feedback. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Connor, J.W.

    1991-03-01

    The major bottleneck in the construction of expert systems is the time-consuming process of acquiring knowledge from experts. Automated knowledge acquisition tools have demonstrated the ability to reduce the time required to construct expert system knowledge bases and are supported by both knowledge engineers and experts. However, due to limitations in their underlying psychological paradigms, existing tools may not be well-suited to extracting semantic or procedural knowledge from an expert. This thesis designs and implements an Expert System Knowledge Acquisition and Policy Evaluation tool using Cognitive Feedback (ESKAPE/CF), based on Lens model techniques which have demonstrated effectiveness in capturing policy knowledge. The system is designed to be used interactively by an expert to reduce the historically lengthy interactions with a knowledge engineer. Additionally, the use of cognitive feedback techniques should enable the system to capture expertise that has heretofore been unobtainable by existing knowledge acquisition tools.

  2. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  3. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses…

  4. SMSlingshot: An Expert Amateur DIY Case Study Patrick Tobias Fischer, Eva Hornecker

    E-print Network

    Hornecker, Eva

    SMSlingshot: An Expert Amateur DIY Case Study Patrick Tobias Fischer, Eva Hornecker University aspects, with professional industri- al designers and technologists becoming expert amateurs, often of being an amateur! Author Keywords Design Process, Creative Process, DIY in the wild. ACM Classification

  5. A middle man approach to knowledge acquisition in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, Janice A.; Lin, Min-Jin; Mayer, Richard J.; Sterle, Mark E.

    1990-01-01

    The Weed Control Advisor (WCA) is a robust expert system that has been successfully implemented on an IBM AT class microcomputer in CLIPS. The goal of the WCA was to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an economical, efficient, user friendly system through which Texas rice producers could obtain expert level knowledge regarding herbicide application for weed control. During the development phase of the WCA, an improved knowledge acquisition method which we call the Middle Man Approach (MMA) was applied to facilitate the communication process between the domain experts and the knowledge engineer. The MMA served to circumvent the problems associated with the more traditional forms of knowledge acquisition by placing the Middle Man, a semi-expert in the problem domain with some computer expertise, at the site of system development. The middle man was able to contribute to system development in two major ways. First, the Middle Man had experience working in rice production and could assume many of the responsibilities normally performed by the domain experts such as explaining the background of the problem domain and determining the important relations. Second, the Middle Man was familiar with computers and worked closely with the system developers to update the rules after the domain experts reviewed the prototype, contribute to the help menus and explanation portions of the expert system, conduct the testing that is required to insure that the expert system gives the expected results answer questions in a timely way, help the knowledge engineer structure the domain knowledge into a useable form, and provide insight into the end user's profile which helped in the development of the simple user friendly interface. The final results were not only that both time expended and costs were greatly reduced by using the MMA, but the quality of the system was improved. This papa will introduce the WCA system and then discuss traditional knowledge acquisition along with some of the problems often associated with it, the MMA methodology, and its application to the WCA development.

  6. Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts¿ estimates

    E-print Network

    Pechey, Rachel; Spiegelhalter, David; Marteau, Theresa M

    2013-01-09

    have no connections to the tobacco industry, nor any financial or non-financial competing interests that relate to the area of this study. Participants Australasia: Two have received funding for consultancy from pharmaceutical companies for smoking... for group estimates [20,21]. The study received ethical approval from the Psychology Research Ethics Committee of the University of Cambridge [Ref. 2011.77]. Participants gave informed consent before taking part. Procedure A semi-structured telephone...

  7. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  8. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-03-14

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  9. Do expert systems impact taxpayer behavior? 

    E-print Network

    Olshewsky, Steven J.

    2004-09-30

    Individuals are increasingly using expert system tax programs as a substitute for paid professionals when preparing their income tax returns. This study examines ways that expert systems encourage the same aggressive ...

  10. Coherent approximation of distributed expert assessments

    E-print Network

    Jones, Peter B., Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgments of probability and expectation play an integral role in many systems. Financial markets, public policy, medical diagnostics and more rely on the ability of informed experts (both human and machine) to make ...

  11. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  12. Asynchronous production systems for real-time expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Sabharwal, A.S.; Iyengar, S.S.; Weisbin, C.R.; Pin, F.G.

    1988-01-01

    Intelligent Computing Systems for Autonomous Mobile Robots and Process Control applications require an integration of traditional Expert system technologies with real-time response and control capabilities. To address such requirements, we propose an Asynchronous Production System (APS), which is a rule-based inference engine capable of monitoring and processing asynchronous, real-time information. The primary motivation of the proposed APS is to provide a unique and convenient mechanism for development of rule-based expert systems capable of dynamic and rapid interaction with their environments. This paper elaborates on the architectural, operational and implementational ramifications of Asynchronous Production Systems. To facilitate its description an example of an APS-based, distributed expert system is presented to handle the task of autonomous navigation in the presence of unexpected, moving obstacles in a mobile robot. 26 refs., 10 figs.

  13. Expert witness testimony guidelines: identifying areas for improvement.

    PubMed

    Svider, Peter F; Eloy, Jean Anderson; Baredes, Soly; Setzen, Michael; Folbe, Adam J

    2015-02-01

    Expert witnesses play an invaluable, if controversial, role by deciphering medical events for juries in cases of alleged negligence. We review expert witness guidelines among major surgical societies and identify gaps within these standards, as our hope is that this spurs discussion addressing areas for improvement. Of 8 surgical societies with accessible guidelines, none included specific compensation guidelines or limits, detailed reporting mechanisms regarding unethical behavior by legal professionals, or addressed the appropriateness of testifying frequently and exclusively for one side. Several processes possibly deterring grossly inaccurate testimony have been adopted by other surgical societies and should potentially be addressed by the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery. These include offering an expert witness testimony certification path, strengthening the formalized grievance process, and encouraging members to sign an affirmation statement. PMID:25389319

  14. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller on-line for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  15. Expert credibility in climate change

    PubMed Central

    Anderegg, William R. L.; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H.

    2010-01-01

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers. PMID:20566872

  16. Amphetamine elicited potential changes in vertebrate and invertebrate central neurons.

    PubMed

    Tsai, M C; Chen, Y H; Huang, S S

    2000-01-01

    The effects of amphetamine on potential changes in both vertebrate and invertebrate central neurons and factors affecting the potential changes were tested. The animals studied included mice, newborn rat and African snail. Seizure was elicited after lethal doses of d-amphetamine (75 mg/kg, i.p.) administration in mice. Repetitive firing of the action potentials were elicited after d-amphetamine (1-30 microM) administration in thin thalamic brain slices of newborn rat. Bursting firing of action potentials in the giant African central RP4 neuron were also elicited after d-amphetamine or l-amphetamine (0.27 mM) administration. The amphetamine elicited bursting firing of action potentials was not blocked even after high concentrations of d-tubocurarine, atropine, haloperidol, hexamethonium administration. Therefore, the amphetamine elicited potential changes may not be directly related to the activation of the receptors of the neuron. The bursting firing of action potentials elicited by amphetamine occurred 20-30 min after amphetamine administration extracellularly, even after high concentrations of d-amphetamine administration (0.27, 1 mM). However, the bursting firing of potentials occurred immediately if amphetamine was administrated intracellularly at lower concentration. Extracellular application of ruthenium red, the calcium antagonist, abolished the amphetamine elicited bursting firing of action potentials. If intracellular injection of EGTA, a calcium ion chelator, or injection with high concentrations of magnesium, the bursting firing of potentials were immediately abolished. These results suggested that the active site of amphetamine may be inside of the neuron and the calcium ion in the neuron played an important role on the bursting of potentials. In two-electrode voltage clamped RP4 neuron, amphetamine, at 0.27 mM, decreased the total inward and steady outward currents of the RP4 neuron. d-Amphetamine also decreased the calcium, Ia and the steady-state outward currents of the RP4 neuron. Besides, amphetamine elicited a negative slope resistance (NSR) if membrane potential was in the range of -50 to -10 mV. The NSR was decreased in cobalt substituted calcium free and sodium free solution. The effects of secondary messengers on the amphetamine elicited potential changes were tested. The bursting firing of action potentials elicited by amphetamine in central snail neurons decreased following extracellular application of H8 (N-(2-methyl-amino) ethyl-3-isoquinoline sulphonamide dihydrochloride), a specific protein kinase A inhibitor and anisomycin, a protein synthesis inhibitor. However, the bursting firing of action potentials were not affected after extracellular application of H7 (1,(5-isoquinolinesulphonyl)-2-methylpiperasine dihydrochloride), a specific protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitor, or intracellular application of GDPbetaS, a G protein inhibitor. The oscillation of membrane potential of the bursting activity was blocked after intracellular injection of 3'-deoxyadenosine, an adenylyl-cyclase inhibitor. These results suggested that the bursting firing of action potentials elicited by d-amphetamine in snail neuron may be associated with the cyclic AMP second messenger system; on the other hand, it may not be associated with the G protein and protein kinase C activity. It is concluded that amphetamine elicited potential changes in both vertebrate and invertebrate central neurons. The changes are closely related to the ionic currents and second messengers of the neurons. PMID:11034152

  17. The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Matching: Experts Can Do a Lot with a Little

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Matthew B.; Tangen, Jason M.

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of “information” available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect—experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints—but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony. PMID:25517509

  18. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  19. CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hentea, Mariana

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

  20. Expert Meeting Report. Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    The NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership held an expert meeting on Foundations–Research Results on November 15, 2011, in Minneapolis, MN. Audience participation was actively encouraged during each presentation to uncover needs and promote dialog among researchers and industry professionals. Key results were: greater understanding of the role of moisture transport through foundation and insulation materials and its potential impact on building durability; greater understanding of the role of foundation type in the process of selecting an insulation system for energy performance and building durability; need for research to quantify the risks associated with insulation processes to better enable users to weigh costs and benefits against the existing conditions of a home; need for improved performance modeling capabilities that address variations in foundation types and soil conditions.

  1. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  2. MRI Grant Program: Expert Tips & Tricks

    E-print Network

    Alpay, S. Pamir

    MRI Grant Program: Expert Tips & Tricks to Nab Expensive Instrumentation WHITE PAPER Sponsored by: #12;White Paper: MRI Grant Program: Expert Tips & Tricks to Nab Expensive Instrumentation Principal Investigators Association | www.principalinvestigators.org 2 White Paper -- "MRI Grant Program: Expert Tips

  3. Biologically inspired robots elicit a robust fear response in zebrafish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ladu, Fabrizio; Bartolini, Tiziana; Panitz, Sarah G.; Butail, Sachit; Macr?, Simone; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2015-03-01

    We investigate the behavioral response of zebrafish to three fear-evoking stimuli. In a binary choice test, zebrafish are exposed to a live allopatric predator, a biologically-inspired robot, and a computer-animated image of the live predator. A target tracking algorithm is developed to score zebrafish behavior. Unlike computer-animated images, the robotic and live predator elicit a robust avoidance response. Importantly, the robotic stimulus elicits more consistent inter-individual responses than the live predator. Results from this effort are expected to aid in hypothesis-driven studies on zebrafish fear response, by offering a valuable approach to maximize data-throughput and minimize animal subjects.

  4. Unpacking stored and storied knowledge: elicited biographies of activismin mental health.

    PubMed

    Milligan, Christine; Kearns, Robin; Kyle, Richard G

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we consider the potential of autobiographical narratives for accessing "storied knowledge" in research around geographies of health voluntarism. We firstly consider what is meant by elicited autobiography and how the narrative approach has been used in research more broadly. Drawing on fieldwork undertaken in Manchester, UK and Auckland, New Zealand we then demonstrate how this approach has helped us to map out and unpack the career journeys of mental health activists working within and across the voluntary and statutory sectors. Through our autobiographical narratives we illustrate how this approach has enabled us to elicit important insights into the triggers and trajectories underpinning mental health activism and how events and moments in time have provided critical junctures in these trajectories. We consider places as sites of significance in activist career paths; and as central to the researcher-participant gestalt within which the autobiography is elicited and recounted. The autobiographical process, we suggest, offers reflective insights into mental health activism that might not otherwise be gained using more conventional methodologies. PMID:23251925

  5. Hemispheric asymmetry of auditory mismatch negativity elicited by spectral and temporal deviants: a magnetoencephalographic study.

    PubMed

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Kakigi, Ryusuke

    2015-05-01

    One of the major challenges in human brain science is the functional hemispheric asymmetry of auditory processing. Behavioral and neurophysiological studies have demonstrated that speech processing is dominantly handled in the left hemisphere, whereas music processing dominantly occurs in the right. Using magnetoencephalography, we measured the auditory mismatch negativity elicited by band-pass filtered click-trains, which deviated from frequently presented standard sound signals in a spectral or temporal domain. The results showed that spectral and temporal deviants were dominantly processed in the right and left hemispheres, respectively. Hemispheric asymmetry was not limited to high-level cognitive processes, but also originated from the pre-attentive neural processing stage represented by mismatch negativity. PMID:24366694

  6. Discovering Web Structure with Multiple Experts in a Clustering Framework

    E-print Network

    discovery, heterogeneous experts, hypothesis language, confi- dence scores, clustering, unsupervised data extraction, world wide web, record linkage #12;Abstract The world wide web contains vast amounts of data machine-processing of data. The task of con- verting web data into operational form is the task of data

  7. The Visual Language of Experts in Graphic Design Henry Lieberman

    E-print Network

    The Visual Language of Experts in Graphic Design Henry Lieberman Media Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Mass. USA lieber@media.mit.edu ABSTRACT Graphic designers and other is communicated between humans in graphic design. Nowhere is the process of design communication more critical

  8. Incentive-elicited striatal activation in adolescent children of alcoholics

    E-print Network

    Knutson, Brian

    Incentive-elicited striatal activation in adolescent children of alcoholics James M. Bjork1 , Brian on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA1 and Department). We tested whether parental alcoholism, which confers risk of SD, is correlated with altered

  9. Creating a Framework: Art Therapy Elicits the Narrative

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harber, Karen

    2011-01-01

    A case study illustrates how art therapy was used to elicit the narrative of an adolescent male student in transition from incarceration to a transfer school setting. Childhood trauma was addressed in individual sessions and within a literacy group co-led by a reading specialist. The art therapist responded to the client's needs by broadening the…

  10. Pattern Visual Evoked Potentials Elicited by Organic Electroluminescence Screen

    PubMed Central

    Matsumoto, Celso Soiti; Shinoda, Kei; Matsumoto, Harue; Funada, Hideaki; Minoda, Haruka

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. To determine whether organic electroluminescence (OLED) screens can be used as visual stimulators to elicit pattern-reversal visual evoked potentials (p-VEPs). Method. Checkerboard patterns were generated on a conventional cathode-ray tube (S710, Compaq Computer Co., USA) screen and on an OLED (17 inches, 320 × 230?mm, PVM-1741, Sony, Tokyo, Japan) screen. The time course of the luminance changes of each monitor was measured with a photodiode. The p-VEPs elicited by these two screens were recorded from 15 eyes of 9 healthy volunteers (22.0 ± 0.8 years). Results. The OLED screen had a constant time delay from the onset of the trigger signal to the start of the luminescence change. The delay during the reversal phase from black to white for the pattern was 1.0?msec on the cathode-ray tube (CRT) screen and 0.5?msec on the OLED screen. No significant differences in the amplitudes of P100 and the implicit times of N75 and P100 were observed in the p-VEPs elicited by the CRT and the OLED screens. Conclusion. The OLED screen can be used as a visual stimulator to elicit p-VEPs; however the time delay and the specific properties in the luminance change must be taken into account. PMID:25197652

  11. Towards Hearing-Aid Personalization: Preference Elicitation from Audiological Data

    E-print Network

    Groot, Perry

    Towards Hearing-Aid Personalization: Preference Elicitation from Audiological Data Adriana Birlutiu University Nijmegen, 2 TU Eindhoven, 3 GN ReSound Eindhoven 1. The HearClip Framework Given a sound library, a sound sample and two parameter settings are se- lected to generate two hearing-aid output signals

  12. Transfer of Aversive Respondent Elicitation in Accordance with Equivalence Relations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valverde, Miguel Rodriguez; Luciano, Carmen; Barnes-Holmes, Dermot

    2009-01-01

    The present study investigates the transfer of aversively conditioned respondent elicitation through equivalence classes, using skin conductance as the measure of conditioning. The first experiment is an attempt to replicate Experiment 1 in Dougher, Augustson, Markham, Greenway, and Wulfert (1994), with different temporal parameters in the…

  13. Engaging Young Children in Research through Photo Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pyle, Angela

    2013-01-01

    Embracing the new sociology of childhood, this paper describes a participatory research method built on a belief in the competency of young children. The paper begins with a critical review of the photo elicitation literature exploring the varied levels of children's participation. Drawing on the strengths of the previous research, a…

  14. A Study of the Affective Responses Elicited by Occupational Stimuli

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schoon, Craig G.

    1976-01-01

    The semantic differential was used to assess the properties of affect elicited by occupational stimuli. Vocationally committed men studying medicine, business, and engineering responded to a semantic differential containing occupational concepts. Results show a semantic space for all three groups composed of three orthogonal dimensions of affect…

  15. Eliciting Production of L2 Target Structures through Priming Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonough, Kim; Trofimovich, Pavel; Neumann, Heike

    2015-01-01

    This study focuses on the pedagogical applications of structural priming research in an English for academic purposes (EAP) context, investigating whether priming activities are an effective tool for eliciting production of target grammatical structures. University students across four EAP classes carried out a total of 6 information-exchange…

  16. Stimulus Duration Preference at Electrode Sites Yielding Elicited Behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, V. C.

    1970-01-01

    The latency to display eating or drinking during hypothalamic stimulation was compared with the preferred duration of the same stimulus intensity in a self-stimulation situation. All the animals preferred longer stimulus durations than those required to elicit eating or drinking

  17. Computational Support for Early Elicitation and Classification of Tone

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steven; Lee, Haejoong

    2014-01-01

    Investigating a tone language involves careful transcription of tone on words and phrases. This is challenging when the phonological categories--the tones or melodies--have not been identified. Effects such as coarticulation, sandhi, and phrase-level prosody appear as obstacles to early elicitation and classification of tone. This article presents…

  18. Eliciting Students' Beliefs about Who Is Good at Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morge, Shelby P.

    2007-01-01

    This article highlights a series of activities designed to elicit students' mathematics-related beliefs, particularly those related to gender. As a result of the activities, females in upper-level classes rated themselves as having less confidence than males, and viewing a movie clip was sufficient for some students to modify their descriptions of…

  19. Using Automatic Speech Recognition Technology with Elicited Oral Response Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, Troy L.; Davies, Randall S.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the use of automatic speech recognition (ASR) scored elicited oral response (EOR) tests to assess the speaking ability of English language learners. It also examined the relationship between ASR-scored EOR and other language proficiency measures and the ability of the ASR to rate speakers without bias to gender or native…

  20. Model-based expert systems for linac computer controls

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, M.J.

    1988-09-01

    The use of machine modeling and beam simulation programs for the control of accelerator operation has become standard practice. The success of a model-based control operation depends on how the parameter to be controlled is measured, how the measured data is analyzed, how the result of the analysis is interpreted, and how a solution is implemented. There is considerable interest in applying expert systems technology that can automate all of these processes. The design of an expert system to control the beam trajectory in linear accelerators will be discussed as an illustration of this approach. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  1. YUCSA: A CLIPS expert database system to monitor academic performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toptsis, Anestis A.; Ho, Frankie; Leindekar, Milton; Foon, Debra Low; Carbonaro, Mike

    1991-01-01

    The York University CLIPS Student Administrator (YUCSA), an expert database system implemented in C Language Integrated Processing System (CLIPS), for monitoring the academic performance of undergraduate students at York University, is discussed. The expert system component in the system has already been implemented for two major departments, and it is under testing and enhancement for more departments. Also, more elaborate user interfaces are under development. We describe the design and implementation of the system, problems encountered, and immediate future plans. The system has excellent maintainability and it is very efficient, taking less than one minute to complete an assessment of one student.

  2. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  3. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  4. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

  5. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ...2010-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141 Food...Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel . Establishing a qualified expert...

  6. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ...2013-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141 Food...Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel . Establishing a qualified expert...

  7. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ...2012-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141 Food...Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel . Establishing a qualified expert...

  8. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ...2011-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141 Food...Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel . Establishing a qualified expert...

  9. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ...2014-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141 Food...Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert...

  10. Mechanisms and Neural Basis of Object and Pattern Recognition: A Study with Chess Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilalic, Merim; Langner, Robert; Erb, Michael; Grodd, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and…

  11. Experts in Fast-Ball Sports Reduce Anticipation Timing Cost by Developing Inhibitory Control

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to examine the relationship between expertise in movement correction and rate of movement reprogramming within limited time periods, and to clarify the specific cognitive processes regarding superior reprogramming ability in experts. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in baseball experts (n = 7) and…

  12. INDUCING PARAMETERS OF A DECISION TREE FOR EXPERT SYSTEM SHELL MCESE BY GENETIC ALGORITHM

    E-print Network

    Franek, Frantisek

    INDUCING PARAMETERS OF A DECISION TREE FOR EXPERT SYSTEM SHELL MCESE BY GENETIC ALGORITHM I. Bruha-mail: {bruha | franya}@mcmaster.ca KEYWORDS Expert system shell, genetic algorithms, rule-based sys- tems for the whole knowledge base. Genetic algorithms comprise a long process of evolution of a large population

  13. A method for knowledge acquisition in diagnostic expert system.

    PubMed

    Li, Weishi; Li, Aiping; Li, Shudong

    2015-05-27

    Knowledge acquisition plays very important role in the diagnostic expert system. It usually takes a long period to acquire disease knowledge using the traditional methods. To solve this problem, this paper describes relations between rough set theory and rule-based description of diseases, which corresponds to the process of knowledge acquisition of diagnostic expert system. Then the exclusive rules, inclusive rules and disease images of disease are built based on the PDES diagnosis model, and the definition of probability rule is put forward. At last, the paper presents the rule-based automated induction reasoning method, including exhaustive search, post-processing procedure, estimation for statistic test and the bootstrap and resampling methods. We also introduce automated induction of the rule-based description, which is used in our diseases diagnostic expert system. The experimental results not only show that rough set theory gives a very suitable framework to represent processes of uncertain knowledge extraction, but also that this method induces diagnostic rules correctly. This method can act as the assistant tool for development of diagnosis expert system, and has an extensive application in intelligent information systems. PMID:26410329

  14. Expert system validation in prolog

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  15. Using Psychophysiological Measures to Examine the Temporal Profile of Verbal Humor Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Fiacconi, Chris M.; Owen, Adrian M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite its pervasiveness in popular culture, there remains much to be learned about the psychological and physiological processes that underlie our experience of humor. In the present study, we examined the temporal profile of verbal humor elicitation using psychophysiological measures of heart rate (HR) and facial electromyography (EMG). Consistent with recent prior research on cardiovascular changes to perceived humor, we found that HR acceleration was greater for jokes relative to non-jokes, and was positively related to the level of perceived humor elicited by these jokes. In addition, activity recorded from the zygomaticus major muscle that controls smiling was found to be greater for jokes relative to non-jokes. To link these physiological changes to the psychological processes that govern humor comprehension, we took the initial inflection point of the zygomatic EMG response as a marker for the onset of humor comprehension, and used this marker to probe the pattern of cardiovascular activity at this time-point. We estimated the onset of the humor response to occur during the initial HR deceleration phase, and found that jokes relative to non-jokes elicited a decreased HR response at this time-point. This result questions the previously forwarded notion that the psychological “moment of insight” that signals the start of the humor response is always associated with heightened cardiovascular activity. This discrepancy is discussed in relation to possible differences in the cognitive processes required to comprehend different forms of humor. At a broader level, our results also demonstrate the advantages of combining different psychophysiological measures to examine psychological phenomena, and illustrate how one such measure can constrain the interpretation of others. PMID:26332843

  16. Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

    2010-01-01

    Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

  17. High Resolution fMRI Reveals Holistic Car Representations in the anterior FFA of Car Experts.

    PubMed

    Ross, David; Tamber-Rosenau, Benjamin; Palmeri, Thomas; Zhang, Jiedong; Xu, Yaoda; Gauthier, Isabel

    2015-09-01

    Perceptual expertise with an object category correlates with increased neural selectivity to that category in several visual areas, with the most robust effects in the fusiform face area (FFA). While expertise effects in FFA are well established, little is known about the representations that underlie these effects. Prior work in training studies with novel objects found that acquired behavioral holistic processing effects correlated with selectivity in FFA. Here, we probe the neural representations of cars for evidence of holistic information as a function of car expertise. With high-resolution 7T fMRI, in a sample of 26 participants, we measured the activation patterns elicited by whole cars, scrambled cars and car parts (top or bottom halves). We trained a SVM classifier to differentiate whole and scrambled cars in several face and object selective ROIs (FFA1, FFA2, OFA and LO). We then tested the classifier on the average of the part-evoked fMRI patterns. If the neural representations consisted only of part information, the classifier should classify the average as being equally like the whole car as the scrambled car. However, if the neural representations included information about the configural information of the parts, then the average of the parts should look more like the scrambled image than the whole. In line with this second prediction, we found a strong correlation between the tendency for the classifier to classify an averaged part pattern as scrambled and behavioral car expertise (r = 0.58, p< 0.01) in the anterior FFA (FFA2), bilaterally. FFA1, OFA and LO did not show expertise effects (p.40). These results go beyond the correlation of neural signals with behavioral holistic effects, providing direct evidence that the neural representations of objects in FFA of perceptual experts are more holistic than in novices. Meeting abstract presented at VSS 2015. PMID:26326302

  18. Agreement of experts and non-experts in a desktop exercise evaluating exposure to asthmagens in the cotton and textile, and other industries.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Christine; Money, Annemarie; Agius, Raymond; de Vocht, Frank

    2015-03-01

    In the absence of personal exposure measurements, expert assessment, generally on a case-by-case basis, is often used to estimate exposures. However, the decision processes of individual experts when making assessments are unknown, making it difficult to assess the quality of these assessments or to compare different assessments to each other. We conducted a study in primarily the textile and cotton industries, but also in baking, metal work, and agriculture industries in which we assessed agreement between experts assessing intensity and probability of exposure in the absence of exposure measurements to compare how well their performance compares to agreement of non-desktop-based exercises reported in literature. In addition, agreement was compared with that of non-experts undertaking the same exercise, and results were further stratified to assess the impact of factors expected of affected assessments. Intraclass correlation coefficients of absolute agreement (ICC1) and consistency (ICC3) between raters were calculated. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated using a probabilistic simulation methodology developed previously. Fourteen occupational hygienists and exposure assessors with complete data for all 48 job descriptions and 8 non-experts participated. Although confidence intervals about correlation-coefficient differences are not reported, the individual limits were found to be so broad as to suggest that no statistically significant comparisons can be made. Nevertheless, preliminary observations are presented here as suggested by the computed means. Absolute agreement between expert raters was fair-good, but was somewhat better for intensity (ICC1 = 0.61) than for probability (ICC1 = 0.44) of exposure and was better for experts than non-experts. Estimated sensitivity was 0.95 and specificity 0.82 for intensity, and 0.91 and 0.78 for probability of exposure, respectively. Stratification for factors hypothesized to affect agreement did not show statistically significant differences, but consistent patterns of point estimates indicated that agreement between raters (both expert on non-experts) dropped for medium levels of information compared with little or extensive information. Inclusion of a photo or video generally improved agreement between experts but not between non-experts, whereas the year of the job description had no influence on the assessments. These data indicate that the desktop exposure assessment exercise was of similar quality to previously reported levels of agreement. Agreements between experts' assessments were independent of the time period of the job and can be improved by inclusion of visual material. Agreement between experts as well as the non-experts does not increase with the detail of provided job information. PMID:25324562

  19. Nonlinear Analyses of Elicited Modal, Raised, and Pressed Rabbit Phonation

    PubMed Central

    Awan, Shaheen N.; Novaleski, Carolyn K.; Rousseau, Bernard

    2014-01-01

    Objectives/Hypothesis The purpose of this study was to use nonlinear dynamic analysis methods such as phase space portraits and correlation dimension (D2) as well as descriptive spectrographic analyses to characterize acoustic signals produced during evoked rabbit phonation. Methods Seventeen New Zealand white breeder rabbits were used to perform the study. A Grass S-88 stimulator (SA Instrumentation, Encinitas, CA) and constant current isolation unit (Grass Telefactor, model PSIU6; West Warwick, RI) were used to provide electrical stimulation to laryngeal musculature, and transglottal airflow rate and stimulation current (mA) were manipulated to elicit modal, raised intensity, and pressed phonations. Central 1 second portions of the most stable portion of the acoustic waveform for modal, raised intensity, and pressed phonations were edited, and then analyzed via phase space portraits, Poincaré sections, and the estimation of the correlation dimension (D2). In an attempt to limit the effects of the highly variable and nonstationary characteristics of some of the signals being analyzed, D2 analysis was also performed on the most stable central 200 ms portion of the acoustic waveform. Descriptive analysis of each phonation was also conducted using sound spectrograms. Results Results showed that the complexity of phonation and the subsequent acoustic waveform is increased as transglottal airflow rate and degree of glottal adduction is manipulated in the evoked rabbit phonation model. In particular, phonatory complexity, as quantified via correlation dimension analyses and demonstrated via spectrographic characteristics, increases from “modal” (i.e., phonation elicited at just above the phonation threshold pressure) to raised intensity (phonation elicited by increasing transglottal airflow rate) to pressed (phonation elicited by increasing the stimulation current delivered to the larynx). Variations in a single dynamic dimension (airflow rate or adductory force) resulted in significantly increased productions of nonlinear phenomenon, including bifurcations from periodicity to regions of subharmonic content, F0 and harmonic jumps, and evidence of periodicity within aperiodic regions (“chaos”). Conclusions The evoked rabbit phonation model described in this study allows for the elicitation of various types of phonations under controlled conditions and therefore, has the potential to provide insight regarding important variables that may elicit examples of nonlinear phenomena such as subharmonics and deterministic chaos. PMID:24836360

  20. Expert Meeting Report: Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.

  1. Voltage transients elicited by sudden step-up of auxin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pickard, B. G.

    1984-01-01

    It is hypothesized (i) that the molecular mechanism for the reception of friction and flexure and the mechanism by which auxin enhances ethylene production have in common a release of free calcium into the cytosol, (ii) that elevated cytosolic calcium initiates vesicle exocytosis, and (iii) that the vesicles release a factor or set of factors which depolarizes the plasmalemma and promotes ethylene synthesis. One consequence of such exocytosis should be small, extracellularly observable voltage transients. Transients, ranging in size up to 600 microvolts and possessing risetimes (10-90%) of approximately 200 ms, are known to be elicited in etiolated stems of Pisum sativum L. by friction and are here shown to be elicited by sudden increase of auxin concentration and also by a Ca2+ ionophore.

  2. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Stephen S.

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  3. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  4. Added value of experts' knowledge to improve a quantitative microbial exposure assessment model--Application to aseptic-UHT food products.

    PubMed

    Pujol, Laure; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Magras, Catherine; Albert, Isabelle; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2015-10-15

    In a previous study, a quantitative microbial exposure assessment (QMEA) model applied to an aseptic-UHT food process was developed [Pujol, L., Albert, I., Magras, C., Johnson, N. B., Membré, J. M. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic UHT product failure rate. 2015 International Journal of Food Microbiology. 192, 124-141]. It quantified Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) associated with Bacillus cereus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus per process module (nine modules in total from raw material reception to end-product storage). Previously, the probabilistic model inputs were set by experts (using knowledge and in-house data). However, only the variability dimension was taken into account. The model was then improved using expert elicitation knowledge in two ways. First, the model was refined by adding the uncertainty dimension to the probabilistic inputs, enabling to set a second order Monte Carlo analysis. The eight following inputs, and their impact on SFR, are presented in detail in this present study: D-value for each bacteria of interest (B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus) associated with the inactivation model for the UHT treatment step, i.e., two inputs; log reduction (decimal reduction) number associated with the inactivation model for the packaging sterilization step for each bacterium and each part of the packaging (product container and sealing component), i.e., four inputs; and bacterial spore air load of the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet rooms, i.e., two inputs. Second, the model was improved by leveraging expert knowledge to develop further the existing model. The proportion of bacteria in the product which settled on surface of pipes (between the UHT treatment and the aseptic tank on one hand, and between the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet on the other hand) leading to a possible biofilm formation for each bacterium, was better characterized. It was modeled as a function of the hygienic design level of the aseptic-UHT line: the experts provided the model structure and most of the model parameters values. Mean of SFR was estimated to 10×10(-8) (95% Confidence Interval=[0×10(-8); 350×10(-8)]) and 570×10(-8) (95% CI=[380×10(-8); 820×10(-8)]) for B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus, respectively. These estimations were more accurate (since the confidence interval was provided) than those given by the model with only variability (for which the estimates were 15×10(-8) and 580×10(-8) for B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus, respectively). The updated model outputs were also compared with those obtained when inputs were described by a generic distribution, without specific information related to the case-study. Results showed that using a generic distribution can lead to unrealistic estimations (e.g., 3,181,000 product units contaminated by G. stearothermophilus among 10(8) product units produced) and emphasized the added value of eliciting information from experts from the relevant specialist field knowledge. PMID:26143288

  5. Different Vaccine Vectors Delivering the Same Antigen Elicit CD8+ T Cell Responses with Distinct Clonotype and Epitope Specificity

    SciTech Connect

    Honda, M.; Robinson, H.; Wang, R.; Kong, W.-P.; Kanekiyo, M.; Akahata, W.; Xu, L.; Matsuo, K.; Natarajan, K.; Asher, T. E.; Price, D. A.; Douek, D. C.; Margulies, D. H.; Nabel, G. J.

    2009-08-15

    Prime-boost immunization with gene-based vectors has been developed to generate more effective vaccines for AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Although these vectors elicit potent T cell responses, the mechanisms by which they stimulate immunity are not well understood. In this study, we show that immunization by a single gene product, HIV-1 envelope, with alternative vector combinations elicits CD8{sup +} cells with different fine specificities and kinetics of mobilization. Vaccine-induced CD8{sup +} T cells recognized overlapping third V region loop peptides. Unexpectedly, two anchor variants bound H-2D{sup d} better than the native sequences, and clones with distinct specificities were elicited by alternative vectors. X-ray crystallography revealed major differences in solvent exposure of MHC-bound peptide epitopes, suggesting that processed HIV-1 envelope gave rise to MHC-I/peptide conformations recognized by distinct CD8{sup +} T cell populations. These findings suggest that different gene-based vectors generate peptides with alternative conformations within MHC-I that elicit distinct T cell responses after vaccination.

  6. Different Vaccine Vectors Delivering the Same Antigen Elicit CD8plus T Cell Responses with Distinct Clonotype and Epitope Specificity

    SciTech Connect

    M Honda; R Wang; W Kong; M Kanekiyo; Q Akahata; L Xu; K Matsuo; K Natarajan; H Robinson; et al.

    2011-12-31

    Prime-boost immunization with gene-based vectors has been developed to generate more effective vaccines for AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Although these vectors elicit potent T cell responses, the mechanisms by which they stimulate immunity are not well understood. In this study, we show that immunization by a single gene product, HIV-1 envelope, with alternative vector combinations elicits CD8{sup +} cells with different fine specificities and kinetics of mobilization. Vaccine-induced CD8{sup +} T cells recognized overlapping third V region loop peptides. Unexpectedly, two anchor variants bound H-2D{sup d} better than the native sequences, and clones with distinct specificities were elicited by alternative vectors. X-ray crystallography revealed major differences in solvent exposure of MHC-bound peptide epitopes, suggesting that processed HIV-1 envelope gave rise to MHC-I/peptide conformations recognized by distinct CD8{sup +} T cell populations. These findings suggest that different gene-based vectors generate peptides with alternative conformations within MHC-I that elicit distinct T cell responses after vaccination.

  7. Conditioned cues for smoking elicit preparatory responses in healthy smokers

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Markus H.; Weyers, Peter; Mucha, Ronald F.; Stippekohl, Bastian; Stark, Rudolf

    2010-01-01

    Rationale Smoking cues are theorized to be conditioned stimuli (CSs) formed by repeated pairing with drug. Smoking paraphernalia can elicit subjective and physiological responses in smokers, indicative of positive affect and motivation to consume. Although these responses are probably the result of conditioning, direct evidence from human conditioning studies with physiological measures of motivational valence is rare. Objective The present study investigated the motivational properties of experimentally conditioned cues for smoking. Methods Thirty-nine smokers completed a differential conditioning protocol. Abstract pictures were used as CSs and single puffs on a cigarette as unconditioned stimulus (US). Skin conductance responses and facial electromyography of the zygomatic, corrugator, and orbicularis oris muscles were measured during conditioning. Results The conditioned cue for smoking (CS+) elicited stronger skin conductance responses and more activity of the zygomatic and orbicularis oris muscles than the CS?. Conclusions These results support the notion that through pairing with smoking, neutral stimuli acquire the ability to elicit preparatory physiological responses, which are assumed to play an important role in the maintenance of addiction and relapse in the natural environment. PMID:20953588

  8. Physiological responses induced by emotion-eliciting films.

    PubMed

    Fernández, Cristina; Pascual, Juan C; Soler, Joaquim; Elices, Matilde; Portella, Maria J; Fernández-Abascal, Enrique

    2012-06-01

    Emotion-eliciting films are commonly used to evoke subjective emotional responses in experimental settings. The main aim of the present study was to investigate whether a set of film clips with discrete emotions were capable to elicit measurable objective physiological responses. The convergence between subjective and objective measures was evaluated. Finally, the effect of gender on emotional responses was investigated. A sample of 123 subjects participated in the study. Individuals were asked to view a set of emotional film clips capable to induce seven emotions: anger, fear, sadness, disgust, amusement, tenderness and neutral state. Skin conductance level (SCL), heart rate (HR) and subjective emotional responses were measured for each film clip. In comparison with neutral films, SCL was significantly increased after viewing fear films, and HR was also significantly incremented for anger and fear films. Physiological variations were associated with arousal measures indicating a convergence between subjective and objective reactions. Women appeared to display significantly greater SCL and HR responses for films inducing sadness. The findings suggest that physiological activation would be more easily induced by emotion-eliciting films that tap into emotions with higher subjective arousal such as anger and fear. PMID:22311202

  9. Production of ginseng saponins: elicitation strategy and signal transductions.

    PubMed

    Rahimi, Shadi; Kim, Yu-Jin; Yang, Deok-Chun

    2015-09-01

    Ginseng is one of the most important plants in oriental medicine. The pharmacological effects of this medicinal herb are mostly correlated to the major bioactive triterpene saponin, called ginsenoside. Due to the long cultivation period of ginseng and increased ginsenoside level in aged root, we need to develop strategies to increase ginseng productivity in cell and tissue culture in a faster way. Elicitation is already considered to improve the yield of this valuable secondary metabolite; especially, different types, timings, and durations of elicitation could affect the ginsenoside production and heterogeneity. Activation of ginsenoside biosynthetic genes and ginsenoside accumulation mediated by elicitor-induced signaling molecules would be helpful for commercial production of individual ginsenosides. Jasmonic acid is the well-known signaling molecule which mainly involved in ginsenoside accumulation. Ca(2+) spiking and reactive oxygen species, nitric oxide, and ethylene production are other messengers which mediate production of ginsenoside. This review highlights the elicitation strategies for production of the ginsenoside based on the principle of putative signal transduction pathways. PMID:26194557

  10. Role of local neurons in cerebrocortical vasodilation elicited from cerebellum

    SciTech Connect

    Iadecola, C.; Arneric, S.P.; Baker, H.D.; Tucker, L.W.; Reis, D.J.

    1987-06-01

    The vasodilation elicited in cerebral cortex by stimulation of the cerebellar fastigial nucleus (FN) is mediated by input pathways coming from the basal forebrain. The authors studied whether these pathways mediate the cortical vasodilation via a direct action on local blood vessels or via interposed local neurons. Neurons were destroyed in the primary sensory cortex by local microinjection of the excitotoxin ibotenic acid (IBO). Five days later rats were anesthetized, paralyzed, and ventilated. Arterial pressure and blood gases were controlled, and FN was stimulated electrically. Local cerebral blood flow (LCBF) was measured using the (/sup 14/C)iodoantipyrine technique with autoradiography. Five days after IBO, neurons were destroyed in a restricted cortical area, and afferent fibers and terminals were preserved. The selectivity of the neuronal loss was established by histological and biochemical criteria and by transport of horseradish, peroxidase from or into the lesion. Within the lesion, resting LCBF was unaffected, but the increase in LCBF evoked from the FN was abolished. In contrast the vasodilation elicited by hypercapnia was preserved. In the rest of the brain the vasodilation elicited from FN was largely unaffected. The authors conclude that the vasodilation evoked from FN in cerebral cortex depends on the integrity of a restricted population of local neurons that interact with the local microvasculature.

  11. Radiologists: The Unsuspecting Subject Matter Experts.

    PubMed

    McGann, Camille; Miaullis, Aaron; Page, Neil

    2015-07-01

    The social and political climates are changing rapidly in the United States and the world at large. The threat of a chemical, biologic, radiologic, and/or nuclear event is a rising concern to many. The current Ebola crisis has shed light on health care providers' preparedness for such an event. Radiologists, including radiation oncologists, nuclear medicine specialists, and all radiology subspecialists are considered "subject matter experts" in this area and are likely to be called upon in response to a radiation incident. Although others, such as radiation safety officers, provide important expertise, the clinical leadership will be the responsibility of physicians and other health care providers. However, many radiologists are unaware that they are considered subject matter experts who may be called on to assist, should their local hospital's emergency department need to take care of casualties from a radiation incident. A mass-casualty situation with hundreds of patients would require the immediate assistance of all available medical providers. Radiologists are primed and positioned to take the lead in ensuring preparedness of their local hospital and community, through emergency planning for a radiologic incident, given their combined medical and radiation physics knowledge. Therefore, increasing the skills of radiologists first is the more prudent approach in such planning. This preparation can be done through understanding of the critical components of such scenarios: the threat, types of radiation incidents, contamination, detection, decontamination, and acute radiation syndrome and its treatment. Once the necessary knowledge supplementation has been completed, radiologists can participate in educating their fellow medical colleagues and health care staff, and assist in the radiation-related aspects of an "all hazards" emergency department response, decreasing "radiophobia" in the process. PMID:25890886

  12. Expert system for automatically correcting OCR output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taghva, Kazem; Borsack, Julie; Condit, Allen

    1994-03-01

    This paper describes a new expert system for automatically correcting errors made by optical character recognition (OCR) devices. The system, which we call the post-processing system, is designed to improve the quality of text produced by an OCR device in preparation for subsequent retrieval from an information system. The system is composed of numerous parts: an information retrieval system, an English dictionary, a domain-specific dictionary, and a collection of algorithms and heuristics designed to correct as many OCR errors as possible. For the remaining errors that cannot be corrected, the system passes them on to a user-level editing program. This post-processing system can be viewed as part of a larger system that would streamline the steps of taking a document from its hard copy form to its usable electronic form, or it can be considered a stand alone system for OCR error correction. An earlier version of this system has been used to process approximately 10,000 pages of OCR generated text. Among the OCR errors discovered by this version, about 87% were corrected. We implement numerous new parts of the system, test this new version, and present the results.

  13. Expert systems should be more accurate than human experts - Evaluation procedures from human judgment and decisionmaking

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levi, Keith

    1989-01-01

    Two procedures for the evaluation of the performance of expert systems are illustrated: one procedure evaluates predictive accuracy; the other procedure is complementary in that it uncovers the factors that contribute to predictive accuracy. Using these procedures, it is argued that expert systems should be more accurate than human experts in two senses. One sense is that expert systems must be more accurate to be cost-effective. Previous research is reviewed and original results are presented which show that simple statistical models typically perform better than human experts for the task of combining evidence from a given set of information sources. The results also suggest the second sense in which expert systems should be more accurate than human experts. They reveal that expert systems should share factors that contribute to human accuracy, but not factors that detract from human accuracy. Thus the thesis is that one should both require and expect systems to be more accurate than humans.

  14. Elicitation, cognitive bias, and herding 1 An introduction to prior information derived from probabilistic

    E-print Network

    Elicitation, cognitive bias, and herding 1 An introduction to prior information derived from probabilistic judgements: Elicitation of knowledge, cognitive bias and herding Michelle C. Baddeley1 Andrew reality (in cases where one exists). #12;Elicitation, cognitive bias, and herding 2 Introduction

  15. Sample Size for Measuring Grammaticality in Preschool Children from Picture-Elicited Language Samples

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisenberg, Sarita L.; Guo, Ling-Yu

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a shorter language sample elicited with fewer pictures (i.e., 7) would yield a percent grammatical utterances (PGU) score similar to that computed from a longer language sample elicited with 15 pictures for 3-year-old children. Method: Language samples were elicited by asking forty…

  16. The Selective Task Trainer: The Expert Solution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gerson, Charles W.

    1995-01-01

    Examines simulator classification and design in light of new technology, current research, and a changing focus for using flight simulators in the military, and proposes a selective task trainer that addresses the expert's performance needs. Highlights include motor skill physiology; retention; automaticity skills; the novice to expert

  17. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a party may file a motion not later than five... witness has testified or sought to testify as an expert at trial or hearing, or by deposition within the... expert whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless otherwise ordered by the hearing officer,...

  18. Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Katy

    2004-01-01

    Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

  19. An expert system for restructurable control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1988-01-01

    Work in progress on an expert system which restructures and tunes control systems on-line is presented. The expert system coordinates the different methods for redesigning and implementing the control strategies due to system changes. The research is directed toward aircraft and jet engine applications. The implementation is written in LISP and is currently running on a special purpose LISP machine.

  20. Farm Parents' Attitudes Towards Farm Safety Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neufeld, Steven J.; Cinnamon, Jennifer L.

    2004-01-01

    Using both qualitative and quantitative data, this article analyzes farm parent's attitudes towards the trustworthiness, usefulness, and use of advice from farm safety experts. The article evaluates four different perspectives on trust in expert: the Validity of Knowledge perspective, the Salient Values Similarity perspective, the Diffusion of…

  1. Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gomez, Fernando

    1989-01-01

    It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

  2. EMMA: The expert system for munition maintenance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mullins, Barry E.

    1988-01-01

    Expert Missile Maintenance Aid (EMMA) is a first attempt to enhance maintenance of the tactical munition at the field and depot level by using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The ultimate goal of EMMA is to help a novice maintenance technician isolate and diagnose electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical equipment faults to the board/chassis level more quickly and consistently than the best human expert using the best currently available automatic test equipment (ATE). To this end, EMMA augments existing ATE with an expert system that captures the knowledge of design and maintenance experts. The EMMA program is described, including the evaluation of field-level expert system prototypes, the description of several study tasks performed during EMMA, and future plans for a follow-on program. This paper will briefly address several study tasks performed during EMMA. The paper concludes with a discussion of future plans for a follow-on program and other areas of concern.

  3. Multiple strategies of reasoning for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Yao Yuchuan; Kulikowski, C.A.

    1983-01-01

    In expert systems the heuristics used for combining the weight of evidence can be based on probabilistic, fuzzy set, or subjective confidence factors. Although the underlying assumptions for each of the methods differ, it can be shown that there are correspondences between them and that it is possible to develop a model of expert reasoning for medical consultation using any one of the methods. The authors have developed a system for representing expert knowledge, called ESMES, which is an outgrowth of the expert scheme developed earlier at Rutgers. ESMES allows the use of alternative strategies in the solution of a consultation problem. The authors report on the performance of ESMES for a prototype glaucoma consultation model, using reasoning mechanisms similar to those of the expert, MYCIN, Internist I, and Prospector systems. 9 references.

  4. CLIPS: An expert system building tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is an expert system building tool, which provides a complete environment for the development and delivery of rule and/or object based expert systems. CLIPS was specifically designed to provide a low cost option for developing and deploying expert system applications across a wide range of hardware platforms. The commercial potential of CLIPS is vast. Currently, CLIPS is being used by over 3,300 individuals throughout the public and private sector. Because the CLIPS source code is readily available, numerous groups have used CLIPS as a basis for their own expert system tools. To date, three commercially available tools have been derived from CLIPS. In general, the development of CLIPS has helped to improve the ability to deliver expert system technology throughout the public and private sectors for a wide range of applications and diverse computing environments.

  5. Learning in practice for becoming a professional forensic expert.

    PubMed

    Köpsén, Susanne; Nyström, Sofia

    2012-10-10

    The study explores the professional development of future forensic experts. Specifically, it investigates how the forensic expert trainees learn through the internal training program at the Swedish National Laboratory of Forensic Science with a focus on the supervision at work. The findings are drawn from an ethnographical study where five trainees and their supervisors have been observed and interviewed. By drawing on a socio cultural perspective on learning, the results show that supervision is crucial for professional development. Two types of activities and relations define how supervision is implemented. There is a "transitional movement" in how supervision is staged depending on the trainees' gradual changes in participation in the work practice and increased experience. Forensic experts need skills and know-how to make wise and impartial judgments, i.e. a kind of tacit professional practical knowledge, as well as the skill to communicate with other professionals. However, the development of a professional language is somewhat unspoken or planned. Becoming a forensic expert is a learning process in practice where supervision plays a decisive role in maintaining the professional knowledge in the judicial system. Therefore, supervision for supervising might be a valuable support for supervisors. PMID:22727266

  6. Analysis of Experts’ Quantitative Assessment of Adolescent Basketball Players and the Role of Anthropometric and Physiological Attributes

    PubMed Central

    Štrumbelj, Erik; Er?ulj, Frane

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we investigated two questions: (1) can measurements of anthropometric and physiological attributes substitute for expert assessment of adolescent basketball players, and (2) how much does the quantitative assessment of a player vary among experts? The first question is relevant to the potential simplification of the player selection process. The second question pertains directly to the validity of expert quantitative assessment. Our research was based on data from 148 U14 female and male basketball players. For each player, an array of anthropometric and physiological attributes was recorded, including body height, body mass, BMI, and several motor skill tests. Furthermore, each player’s current ability and potential ability were quantitatively evaluated by two different experts from a group of seven experts. Analysis of the recorded data showed that the anthropometric and physiological attributes explained between 15% and 40% of the variance in experts’ scores. The primary predictive attributes were speed and agility (for predicting current ability) and body height and growth potential (for predicting potential ability). We concluded that these attributes were not sufficiently informative to act as a substitute for expert assessment of the players’ current or potential ability. There is substantial variability in different experts’ scores of the same player’s ability. However, the differences between experts are mostly in scale, and the relationships between experts’ scores are monotonic. That is, different experts rank players on ability very similarly, but their scores are not well calibrated. PMID:25414759

  7. Perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport: some considerations when applying the expert performance approach.

    PubMed

    Williams, A Mark; Ericsson, K Anders

    2005-06-01

    The number of researchers studying perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport is increasing. The intention in this paper is to review the currently accepted framework for studying expert performance and to consider implications for undertaking research work in the area of perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport. The expert performance approach presents a descriptive and inductive approach for the systematic study of expert performance. The nature of expert performance is initially captured in the laboratory using representative tasks that identify reliably superior performance. Process-tracing measures are employed to determine the mechanisms that mediate expert performance on the task. Finally, the specific types of activities that lead to the acquisition and development of these mediating mechanisms are identified. General principles and mechanisms may be discovered and then validated by more traditional experimental designs. The relevance of this approach to the study of perceptual-cognitive expertise in sport is discussed and suggestions for future work highlighted. PMID:16095739

  8. Eliciting knowledge on soft flood-risk management strategies in the Ukrainian Tisza river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haase, D.; Kuptsova, S.; Bharwani, S.; Fischer, M. E.; Downing, T. E.

    2009-04-01

    This paper focuses on a participatory knowledge elicitation process (KnETs) to explore decision-making criteria regarding ‘soft' techniques for flood risk management in the Ukrainian Tisza river basin. Communities in this region are faced with frequent floods and limited governmental budgets to cope with flood impacts. To identify the potential for soft flood protection measures as opposed to traditional technical solutions, we explored the decision-making heuristics of village council heads and the conditions under which they do or do not prepare for a flood event. Tacit knowledge, which is often unconscious and therefore difficult to describe, is complex to uncover through conventional interview techniques. To address this issue, a participatory process has been designed to reveal this knowledge without losing its connection to the context in which it is applied. That is, the KnETs process has been designed to understand context-relevant adaptive strategies and the reasons they are chosen in a natural resource management context. The process can be adapted to explore the contextual specificities of many situations ranging from flood and drought risk management to livelihood choices and the adaptation options considered in each set of circumstances. This interdisciplinary approach integrates ethnographic methods from the social sciences domain with classical computer science knowledge engineering techniques to address current bottlenecks (related to time and resource requirements) in both areas of research. This provides a participatory process, from knowledge elicitation to knowledge representation, verification and validation, providing a greater clarity of local data and thus possibly a greater understanding of social vulnerability and adaptive behaviour in flood situations.

  9. Clarification of rules involving residual functional capacity assessments; clarification of use of vocational experts and other sources at step 4 of the sequential evaluation process; incorporation of "special profile" into regulations. Final rules.

    PubMed

    2003-08-26

    For purposes of this document, "we," "our," and "SSA" refer to the Social Security Administration and State agencies that make disability determinations for the Social Security Administration. "You" and "your" refer to individuals who claim benefits from the Social Security Administration based on "disability." In this final rule we clarify our rules about the responsibility that you have to provide evidence and the responsibility that we have to develop evidence in connection with your claim of disability. This includes our rules about when we assess your residual functional capacity (RFC) and how we use this RFC assessment when we decide whether you can do your past relevant work or other work. These clarifications address issues of responsibility raised by some courts in recent cases; clarify that we may use vocational experts (VEs), vocational specialists (VSs), or other resources to obtain evidence we need to help us determine whether your impairment(s) prevents you from doing your past relevant work; add a special provision to our rules stating that, if you are at least 55 years old, and specific other circumstances are present, we will find that you are disabled; and make a number of minor editorial changes to clarify and update the language of our rules, and to use simpler language in keeping with our goal of using plain language in our regulations. PMID:12952011

  10. Beyond reminiscence: using generic video to elicit conversational language.

    PubMed

    Davis, Boyd H; Shenk, Dena

    2015-02-01

    Videos and multimedia are increasingly used to stimulate reminiscence in dementia care. However, they are also valuable in eliciting a wide range of language patterns that are not necessarily keyed to reminiscence about self. Low-technology, home-made generic and personalized videos were tested with 2 samples of persons with dementia, to increase engagement and support the retention of identity. Participants showed a slight, though not significant, preference for looking first at personalized videos and produced a wider range of conversational language topics and phrasal patterns in response to the generic videos. PMID:24851873

  11. Audio-vocal responses elicited in adult cochlear implant users

    PubMed Central

    Loucks, Torrey M.; Suneel, Deepa; Aronoff, Justin M.

    2015-01-01

    Auditory deprivation experienced prior to receiving a cochlear implant could compromise neural connections that allow for modulation of vocalization using auditory feedback. In this report, pitch-shift stimuli were presented to adult cochlear implant users to test whether compensatory motor changes in vocal F0 could be elicited. In five of six participants, rapid adjustments in vocal F0 were detected following the stimuli, which resemble the cortically mediated pitch-shift responses observed in typical hearing individuals. These findings suggest that cochlear implants can convey vocal F0 shifts to the auditory pathway that might benefit audio-vocal monitoring. PMID:26520350

  12. A parallel strategy for implementing real-time expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ilyes, Laszlo A.; Villaseca, F. Eugenio; Delaat, John

    1994-01-01

    As evidenced by current literature, there appears to be a continued interest in the study of real-time expert systems. It is generally recognized that speed of execution is only one consideration when designing an effective real-time expert system. Some other features one must consider are the expert system's ability to perform temporal reasoning, handle interrupts, prioritize data, contend with data uncertainty, and perform context focusing as dictated by the incoming data to the expert system. This paper presents a strategy for implementing a real time expert system on the iPSC/860 hypercube parallel computer using CLIPS. The strategy takes into consideration not only the execution time of the software, but also those features which define a true real-time expert system. The methodology is then demonstrated using a practical implementation of an expert system which performs diagnostics on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). This particular implementation uses an eight node hypercube to process ten sensor measurements in order to simultaneously diagnose five different failure modes within the SSME. The main program is written in ANSI C and embeds CLIPS to better facilitate and debug the rule based expert system.

  13. Perceptual symbols of creativity: coldness elicits referential, warmth elicits relational creativity.

    PubMed

    Ijzerman, Hans; Leung, Angela K-y; Ong, Lay See

    2014-05-01

    Research in the cognitive and social psychological science has revealed the pervading relation between body and mind. Physical warmth leads people to perceive others as psychological closer to them and to be more generous towards others. More recently, physical warmth has also been implicated in the processing of information, specifically through perceiving relationships (via physical warmth) and contrasting from others (via coldness). In addition, social psychological work has linked social cues (such as mimicry and power cues) to creative performance. The present work integrates these two literatures, by providing an embodied model of creative performance through relational (warm = relational) and referential (cold = distant) processing. The authors predict and find that warm cues lead to greater creativity when 1) creating drawings, 2) categorizing objects, and 3) coming up with gifts for others. In contrast, cold cues lead to greater creativity, when 1) breaking set in a metaphor recognition task, 2) coming up with new pasta names, and 3) being abstract in coming up with gifts. Effects are found across different populations and age groups. The authors report implications for theory and discuss limitations of the present work. PMID:24530552

  14. The HrpN effector of Erwinia amylovora, which is involved in type III translocation, contributes directly or indirectly to callose elicitation on apple leaves.

    PubMed

    Boureau, Tristan; Siamer, Sabrina; Perino, Claude; Gaubert, Stéphane; Patrit, Oriane; Degrave, Alexandre; Fagard, Mathilde; Chevreau, Elisabeth; Barny, Marie-Anne

    2011-05-01

    Erwinia amylovora is responsible for fire blight of apple and pear trees. Its pathogenicity depends on a type III secretion system (T3SS) mediating the translocation of effectors into the plant cell. The DspA/E effector suppresses callose deposition on apple leaves. We found that E. amylovora and Pseudomonas syringae DC3000 tts mutants or peptide flg22 do not trigger callose deposition as strongly as the dspA/E mutant on apple leaves. This suggests that, on apple leaves, callose deposition is poorly elicited by pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) such as flg22 or other PAMPs harbored by tts mutants and is mainly elicited by injected effectors or by the T3SS itself. Callose elicitation partly depends on HrpW because an hrpW-dspA/E mutant elicits lower callose deposition than a dspA/E mutant. Furthermore, an hrpN-dspA/E mutant does not trigger callose deposition, indicating that HrpN is required to trigger this plant defense reaction. We showed that HrpN plays a general role in the translocation process. Thus, the HrpN requirement for callose deposition may be explained by its role in translocation: HrpN could be involved in the translocation of other effectors inducing callose deposition. Furthermore, HrpN may also directly contribute to the elicitation process because we showed that purified HrpN induces callose deposition. PMID:21463207

  15. Debugging expert systems using a dynamically created hypertext network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, Craig D. B.; Schuette, John F.

    1991-01-01

    The labor intensive nature of expert system writing and debugging motivated this study. The hypothesis is that a hypertext based debugging tool is easier and faster than one traditional tool, the graphical execution trace. HESDE (Hypertext Expert System Debugging Environment) uses Hypertext nodes and links to represent the objects and their relationships created during the execution of a rule based expert system. HESDE operates transparently on top of the CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) rule based system environment and is used during the knowledge base debugging process. During the execution process HESDE builds an execution trace. Use of facts, rules, and their values are automatically stored in a Hypertext network for each execution cycle. After the execution process, the knowledge engineer may access the Hypertext network and browse the network created. The network may be viewed in terms of rules, facts, and values. An experiment was conducted to compare HESDE with a graphical debugging environment. Subjects were given representative tasks. For speed and accuracy, in eight of the eleven tasks given to subjects, HESDE was significantly better.

  16. Adaptive capture of expert behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, R.D.; Barrett, C.L.; Hand, U.; Gordon, R.C.

    1994-08-01

    The authors smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with adaptive networks. The motivation for doing this is discussed. (1) Smoothing leads to stabler control actions. (2) For some sets of rules, the evaluation of the rules can be sped up. This is important in large-scale simulations where many intelligent elements are present. (3) Variability of the intelligent elements can be achieved by adjusting the weights in an adaptive network. (4) After capture has occurred, the weights can be adjusted based on performance criteria. The authors thus have the capability of learning a new set of rules that lead to better performance. The set of rules the authors chose to capture were based on a set of threat determining rules for tank commanders. The approach in this paper: (1) They smoothed the rules. The rule set was converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements. Continuous, non-binary inputs, are now permitted. (2) An operational measure of capturability was developed. (3) They chose four candidate networks for the rule set capture: (a) multi-linear network, (b) adaptive partial least squares, (c) connectionist normalized local spline (CNLS) network, and (d) CNLS net with a PLS preprocessor. These networks were able to capture the rule set to within a few percent. For the simple tank rule set, the multi-linear network performed the best. When the rules were modified to include more nonlinear behavior, CNLS net performed better than the other three nets which made linear assumptions. (4) The networks were tested for robustness to input noise. Noise levels of plus or minus 10% had no real effect on the network performance. Noise levels in the plus or minus 30% range degraded performance by a factor of two. Some performance enhancement occurred when the networks were trained with noisy data. (5) The scaling of the evaluation time was calculated. (6) Human variation can be mimicked in all the networks by perturbing the weights.

  17. Hilar cholangiocarcinoma: expert consensus statement.

    PubMed

    Mansour, John C; Aloia, Thomas A; Crane, Christopher H; Heimbach, Julie K; Nagino, Masato; Vauthey, Jean-Nicolas

    2015-08-01

    An American Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association (AHPBA)-sponsored consensus meeting of expert panellists met on 15 January 2014 to review current evidence on the management of hilar cholangiocarcinoma in order to establish practice guidelines and to agree consensus statements. It was established that the treatment of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma requires a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to optimize the chances for both durable survival and effective palliation. An adequate diagnostic and staging work-up includes high-quality cross-sectional imaging; however, pathologic confirmation is not required prior to resection or initiation of a liver transplant trimodal treatment protocol. The ideal treatment for suitable patients with resectable hilar malignancy is resection of the intra- and extrahepatic bile ducts, as well as resection of the involved ipsilateral liver. Preoperative biliary drainage is best achieved with percutaneous transhepatic approaches and may be indicated for patients with cholangitis, malnutrition or hepatic insufficiency. Portal vein embolization is a safe and effective strategy for increasing the future liver remnant (FLR) and is particularly useful for patients with an FLR of <30%. Selected patients with unresectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma should be evaluated for a standard trimodal protocol incorporating external beam and endoluminal radiation therapy, systemic chemotherapy and liver transplantation. Post-resection chemoradiation should be offered to patients who show high-risk features on surgical pathology. Chemoradiation is also recommended for patients with locally advanced, unresectable hilar cancers. For patients with locally recurrent or metastatic hilar cholangiocarcinoma, first-line chemotherapy with gemcitabine and cisplatin is recommended based on multiple Phase II trials and a large randomized controlled trial including a heterogeneous population of patients with biliary cancers. PMID:26172136

  18. Anger Elicitation in Tonga and Germany: The Impact of Culture on Cognitive Determinants of Emotions

    PubMed Central

    Bender, Andrea; Spada, Hans; Rothe-Wulf, Annelie; Traber, Simone; Rauss, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    The cognitive appraisal of an event is crucial for the elicitation and differentiation of emotions, and causal attributions are an integral part of this process. In an interdisciplinary project comparing Tonga and Germany, we examined how cultural differences in attribution tendencies affect emotion assessment and elicitation. Data on appraising causality and responsibility and on emotional responses were collected through questionnaires based on experimentally designed vignettes, and were related to culture-specific values, norms, and the prevailing self-concept. The experimental data support our hypothesis that – driven by culturally defined self-concepts and corresponding attribution tendencies – members of the two cultures cognitively appraise events in diverging manners and consequently differ in their emotional responses. Ascription of responsibility to self and/or circumstances, in line with a more interdependent self-concept, co-varies with higher ratings of shame, guilt, and sadness, whereas ascription of responsibility to others, in line with a less interdependent self-concept, co-varies with higher ratings of anger. These findings support the universal contingency hypothesis and help to explain cultural differences in this domain on a fine-grained level. PMID:23112780

  19. Expert judgment assessment of the mortality impact of changes in ambient fine particulate matter in the U.S.

    PubMed

    Roman, Henry A; Walker, Katherine D; Walsh, Tyra L; Conner, Lisa; Richmond, Harvey M; Hubbell, Bryan J; Kinney, Patrick L

    2008-04-01

    In this paper, we present findings from a multiyear expert judgment study that comprehensively characterizes uncertainty in estimates of mortality reductions associated with decreases in fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) in the U.S. Appropriate characterization of uncertainty is critical because mortality-related benefits represent up to 90% of the monetized benefits reported in the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) analyses of proposed air regulations. Numerous epidemiological and toxicological studies have evaluated the PM(2.5)-mortality association and investigated issues that may contribute to uncertainty in the concentration-response (C-R) function, such as exposure misclassification and potential confounding from other pollutant exposures. EPA's current uncertainty analysis methods rely largely on standard errors in published studies. However, no one study can capture the full suite of issues that arise in quantifying the C-R relationship. Therefore, EPA has applied state-of-the-art expert judgment elicitation techniques to develop probabilistic uncertainty distributions that reflect the broader array of uncertainties in the C-R relationship. These distributions, elicited from 12 of the world's leading experts on this issue, suggest both potentially larger central estimates of mortality reductions for decreases in long-term PM(2.5) exposure in the U.S. and a wider distribution of uncertainty than currently employed in EPA analyses. PMID:18504952

  20. Expert System Control of Plant Growth in an Enclosed Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    May, George; Lanoue, Mark; Bathel, Matthew; Ryan, Robert E.

    2008-01-01

    The Expert System is an enclosed, controlled environment for growing plants, which incorporates a computerized, knowledge-based software program that is designed to capture the knowledge, experience, and problem-solving skills of one or more human experts in a particular discipline. The Expert System is trained to analyze crop/plant status, to monitor the condition of the plants and the environment, and to adjust operational parameters to optimize the plant-growth process. This system is intended to provide a way to remotely control plant growth with little or no human intervention. More specifically, the term control implies an autonomous method for detecting plant states such as health (biomass) or stress and then for recommending and implementing cultivation and/or remediation to optimize plant growth and to minimize consumption of energy and nutrients. Because of difficulties associated with delivering energy and nutrients remotely, a key feature of this Expert System is its ability to minimize this effort and to achieve optimum growth while taking into account the diverse range of environmental considerations that exist in an enclosed environment. The plant-growth environment for the Expert System could be made from a variety of structures, including a greenhouse, an underground cavern, or another enclosed chamber. Imaging equipment positioned within or around the chamber provides spatially distributed crop/plant-growth information. Sensors mounted in the chamber provide data and information pertaining to environmental conditions that could affect plant development. Lamps in the growth environment structure supply illumination, and other additional equipment in the chamber supplies essential nutrients and chemicals.

  1. An overview of expert systems. [artificial intelligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1982-01-01

    An expert system is defined and its basic structure is discussed. The knowledge base, the inference engine, and uses of expert systems are discussed. Architecture is considered, including choice of solution direction, reasoning in the presence of uncertainty, searching small and large search spaces, handling large search spaces by transforming them and by developing alternative or additional spaces, and dealing with time. Existing expert systems are reviewed. Tools for building such systems, construction, and knowledge acquisition and learning are discussed. Centers of research and funding sources are listed. The state-of-the-art, current problems, required research, and future trends are summarized.

  2. Communications and tracking expert systems study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leibfried, T. F.; Feagin, Terry; Overland, David

    1987-01-01

    The original objectives of the study consisted of five broad areas of investigation: criteria and issues for explanation of communication and tracking system anomaly detection, isolation, and recovery; data storage simplification issues for fault detection expert systems; data selection procedures for decision tree pruning and optimization to enhance the abstraction of pertinent information for clear explanation; criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs; and analysis of expert system interaction and modularization. Progress was made in all areas, but to a lesser extent in the criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs. Among the types of expert systems studied were those related to anomaly or fault detection, isolation, and recovery.

  3. Cut! that’s a wrap: regulating negative emotion by ending emotion-eliciting situations

    PubMed Central

    Vujovic, Lara; Opitz, Philipp C.; Birk, Jeffrey L.; Urry, Heather L.

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the potentially powerful set of emotion regulation (ER) processes that target emotion-eliciting situations. We thus studied the decision to end emotion-eliciting situations in the laboratory. We hypothesized that people would try to end negative situations more frequently than neutral situations to regulate distress. In addition, motivated by the selection, optimization, and compensation with ER framework, we hypothesized that failed attempts to end the situation would prompt either (a) greater negative emotion or (b) compensatory use of a different ER process, attentional deployment (AD). Fifty-eight participants (18–26 years old, 67% women) viewed negative and neutral pictures and pressed a key whenever they wished to stop viewing them. After key press, the picture disappeared (“success”) or stayed (“failure”) on screen. To index emotion, we measured corrugator and electrodermal activity, heart rate, and self-reported arousal. To index overt AD, we measured eye gaze. As their reason for ending the situation, participants more frequently reported being upset by high- than low-arousal negative pictures; they more frequently reported being bored by low- than high-arousal neutral pictures. Nevertheless, participants’ negative emotional responding did not increase in the context of ER failure nor did they use overt AD as a compensatory ER strategy. We conclude that situation-targeted ER processes are used to regulate emotional responses to high-arousal negative and low-arousal neutral situations; ER processes other than overt AD may be used to compensate for ER failure in this context. PMID:24592251

  4. Tactile stimulation of the oropharynx elicits sympathoexcitation in conscious humans.

    PubMed

    Muller, Matthew D; Mast, Jessica L; Cui, Jian; Heffernan, Matthew J; McQuillan, Patrick M; Sinoway, Lawrence I

    2013-07-01

    Tactile stimulation of the oropharynx (TSO) elicits the gag reflex and increases heart rate (HR) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) in anesthetized patients. However, the interaction between upper-airway defense reflexes and the sympathetic nervous system has not been investigated in conscious humans. In Experiment 1, beat-by-beat measurements of HR, MAP, muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA), and renal vascular resistance (RVR) were measured during TSO and tactile stimulation of the hard palate (Sham) in the supine posture. In Experiment 2, TSO was performed before (pre) and after (post) inhalation of 4% lidocaine via nebulizer. Rate pressure product (RPP) was determined. Compared with Sham, TSO elicited the gag reflex and increased RPP [absolute change (?)36 ± 6 vs. 17 ± 5%], MSNA (?122 ± 39 vs. 19 ± 19%), and RVR (?55 ± 11 vs. 4 ± 4%). This effect occurred within one to two cardiac cycles of TSO. The ?MAP (12 ± 3 vs. 6 ± 1 mmHg) and the ?HR (10 ± 3 vs. 3 ± 3 beats/min) were also greater following TSO compared with Sham. Lidocaine inhalation blocked the gag reflex and attenuated increases in MAP (?pre: 16 ± 2; ?post: 5 ± 2 mmHg) and HR (?pre: 12 ± 3; ?post: 2 ± 2 beats/min) in response to TSO. When mechanically stimulated, afferents in the oropharynx not only serve to protect the airway but also cause reflex increases in MSNA, RVR, MAP, and HR. An augmented sympathoexcitatory response during intubation and laryngoscopy may contribute to perioperative cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. PMID:23599399

  5. Cognitive constraints on constituent order: Evidence from elicited pantomime

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Matthew L.; Mayberry, Rachel I.; Ferreira, Victor S.

    2014-01-01

    To what extent does human cognition influence the structure of human language? Recent experiments using elicited pantomime suggest that the prevalence of Subject-Object-Verb (SOV) order across the world's languages may arise in part because SOV order is most compatible with how we conceptually represent transitive events (Goldin-Meadow, So, Özyürek, & Mylander, 2008). However, this raises the question as to why non-SOV orders exist. Two recent studies (Meir, Lifshitz, Ilkbasaran, & Padden, 2010; Gibson et al., 2013) suggest that SOV might be suboptimal for describing events in which both the agent and patient are plausible agents (e.g. a woman pushing a boy); we call these “reversible” events. We replicate these findings using elicited pantomime and offer a new interpretation. Meir et al.'s (2010) account is framed largely in terms of constraints on comprehension, while Gibson et al.'s (2013) account involves minimizing the risk of information loss or memory degradation. We offer an alternative hypothesis that is grounded in constraints on production. We consider the implications of these findings for the distribution of constituent order in the world's spoken languages and for the structure of emerging sign languages. PMID:23792806

  6. Hypoglycemic activity of withanolides and elicitated Withania somnifera.

    PubMed

    Gorelick, Jonathan; Rosenberg, Rivka; Smotrich, Avinoam; Hanuš, Lumír; Bernstein, Nirit

    2015-08-01

    Withania somnifera, known in India as Asghawhanda, is used traditionally to treat many medical problems including diabetes and has demonstrated therapeutic activity in various animal models as well as in diabetic patients. While much of W. somnifera's therapeutic activity is attributed to withanolides, their role in the anti-diabetic activity of W. somnifera has not been adequately studied. In the present study, we evaluated the anti-diabetic activity of W. somnifera extract and purified withanolides, as well as the effect of various elicitors on this activity. W. somnifera leaf and root extracts increased glucose uptake in myotubes and adipocytes in a dose dependent manner, with the leaf extract more active than the root extract. Leaf but not root extract increased insulin secretion in basal pancreatic beta cells but not in stimulated cells. Six withanolides isolated from W. somnifera were tested for anti-diabetic activity based on glucose uptake in skeletal myotubes. Withaferin A was found to increase glucose uptake, with 10?M producing a 54% increase compared with control, suggesting that withaferin A is at least partially responsible for W. somnifera's anti-diabetic activity. Elicitors applied to the root growing solutions affected the physiological state of the plants, altering membrane leakage or osmotic potential. Methyl salicylate and chitosan increased withaferin A content by 75% and 69% respectively, and extracts from elicited plants increased glucose uptake to a higher extent than non-elicited plants, demonstrating a correlation between increased content of withaferin A and anti-diabetic activity. PMID:25796090

  7. SSME fault monitoring and diagnosis expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ali, Moonis; Norman, Arnold M.; Gupta, U. K.

    1989-01-01

    An expert system, called LEADER, has been designed and implemented for automatic learning, detection, identification, verification, and correction of anomalous propulsion system operations in real time. LEADER employs a set of sensors to monitor engine component performance and to detect, identify, and validate abnormalities with respect to varying engine dynamics and behavior. Two diagnostic approaches are adopted in the architecture of LEADER. In the first approach fault diagnosis is performed through learning and identifying engine behavior patterns. LEADER, utilizing this approach, generates few hypotheses about the possible abnormalities. These hypotheses are then validated based on the SSME design and functional knowledge. The second approach directs the processing of engine sensory data and performs reasoning based on the SSME design, functional knowledge, and the deep-level knowledge, i.e., the first principles (physics and mechanics) of SSME subsystems and components. This paper describes LEADER's architecture which integrates a design based reasoning approach with neural network-based fault pattern matching techniques. The fault diagnosis results obtained through the analyses of SSME ground test data are presented and discussed.

  8. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...which he or she may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be otherwise ordered by...

  9. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or offer opinions from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the...

  10. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...which he or she may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be otherwise ordered by...

  11. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...which he or she may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be otherwise ordered by...

  12. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or offer opinions from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the...

  13. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or offer opinions from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the...

  14. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...which he or she may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be otherwise ordered by...

  15. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or offer opinions from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the...

  16. 49 CFR 511.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...which he or she may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may be otherwise ordered by...

  17. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...may draw inferences based upon hypothetically stated facts or offer opinions from facts involving scientific or technical knowledge. (b) Method of presenting testimony of expert witness. Except as may otherwise be ordered by the...

  18. Online Prediction Bayes versus Experts Marcus Hutter

    E-print Network

    Hutter, Marcus

    ]. Prediction with Expert Advice (PEA). Contrary to the straight-forward definition of Bayes-optimal predictors, designing well-performing PEA-master algorithms is an art. In the PEA framework one considers a countable

  19. Beware Unregulated Stem Cell Treatments, Experts Warn

    MedlinePLUS

    ... gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_154536.html Beware Unregulated Stem Cell Treatments, Experts Warn Clinics selling treatments that ... clinics across the United States are offering unapproved stem cell treatments for conditions from baldness to heart ...

  20. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AID OF CIVIL AUTHORITIES AND PUBLIC RELATIONS LITIGATION Release...is authorized to deny a request for expert testimony, which decision may be appealed to Litigation Division. (b) Exception...

  1. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AID OF CIVIL AUTHORITIES AND PUBLIC RELATIONS LITIGATION Release...is authorized to deny a request for expert testimony, which decision may be appealed to Litigation Division. (b) Exception...

  2. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AID OF CIVIL AUTHORITIES AND PUBLIC RELATIONS LITIGATION Release...is authorized to deny a request for expert testimony, which decision may be appealed to Litigation Division. (b) Exception...

  3. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AID OF CIVIL AUTHORITIES AND PUBLIC RELATIONS LITIGATION Release...is authorized to deny a request for expert testimony, which decision may be appealed to Litigation Division. (b) Exception...

  4. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AID OF CIVIL AUTHORITIES AND PUBLIC RELATIONS LITIGATION Release...is authorized to deny a request for expert testimony, which decision may be appealed to Litigation Division. (b) Exception...

  5. A CLIPS-based expert system for the evaluation and selection of robots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nour, Mohamed A.; Offodile, Felix O.; Madey, Gregory R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a prototype expert system for intelligent selection of robots for manufacturing operations. The paper first develops a comprehensive, three-stage process to model the robot selection problem. The decisions involved in this model easily lend themselves to an expert system application. A rule-based system, based on the selection model, is developed using the CLIPS expert system shell. Data about actual robots is used to test the performance of the prototype system. Further extensions to the rule-based system for data handling and interfacing capabilities are suggested.

  6. Expert system to design communications circuits

    SciTech Connect

    Tolendino, L.F.; Vahle, M.O.

    1986-07-01

    An expert system has been created to aid the design of fiber optic based communications circuits. The design system is based on an Apollo workstation, LISP and CPSL, an in-house developed expert system language. The optical circuit is taken from design specification through hardware selection and circuit routing to the production of detailed schematics and routing guides. A database containing the entire fiber optic trunk system is also maintained.

  7. Jess, the Java expert system shell

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman-Hill, E.J.

    1997-11-01

    This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

  8. Multidisciplinary Expert-aided Analysis and Design (MEAD)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hummel, Thomas C.; Taylor, James

    1989-01-01

    The MEAD Computer Program (MCP) is being developed under the Multidisciplinary Expert-Aided Analysis and Design (MEAD) Project as a CAD environment in which integrated flight, propulsion, and structural control systems can be designed and analyzed. The MCP has several embedded computer-aided control engineering (CACE) packages, a user interface (UI), a supervisor, a data-base manager (DBM), and an expert system (ES). The supervisor monitors and coordinates the operation of the CACE packages, the DBM; the ES, and the UI. The DBM tracks the control design process. Models created or installed by the MCP are tracked by date and version, and results are associated with the specific model version with which they were generated. The ES is used to relieve the control engineer from tedious and cumbersome tasks in the iterative design process. The UI provides the capability for a novice as well as an expert to utilize the MCP easily and effectively. The MCP version 2(MCP-2.0) is fully developed for flight control system design and analysis. Propulsion system modeling, analysis, and simulation is also supported; the same is true for structural models represented in state-space form. The ultimate goal is to cover the integration of flight, propulsion, and structural control engineering, including all discipline-specific functionality and interfaces. The current MCP-2.0 components and functionality are discussed.

  9. Expert system for on-board satellite scheduling and control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barry, John M.; Sary, Charisse

    1988-01-01

    An Expert System is described which Rockwell Satellite and Space Electronics Division (S&SED) is developing to dynamically schedule the allocation of on-board satellite resources and activities. This expert system is the Satellite Controller. The resources to be scheduled include power, propellant and recording tape. The activities controlled include scheduling satellite functions such as sensor checkout and operation. The scheduling of these resources and activities is presently a labor intensive and time consuming ground operations task. Developing a schedule requires extensive knowledge of the system and subsystems operations, operational constraints, and satellite design and configuration. This scheduling process requires highly trained experts anywhere from several hours to several weeks to accomplish. The process is done through brute force, that is examining cryptic mnemonic data off line to interpret the health and status of the satellite. Then schedules are formulated either as the result of practical operator experience or heuristics - that is rules of thumb. Orbital operations must become more productive in the future to reduce life cycle costs and decrease dependence on ground control. This reduction is required to increase autonomy and survivability of future systems. The design of future satellites require that the scheduling function be transferred from ground to on board systems.

  10. Quiet eye gaze behavior of expert, and near-expert, baseball plate umpires.

    PubMed

    Millslagle, Duane G; Hines, Bridget B; Smith, Melissa S

    2013-02-01

    The quiet eye gaze behavior of 4 near-expert and 4 expert baseball umpires who called balls and strikes in simulated pitch-hit situations was assessed with a mobile eye cornea tracker system. Statistical analyses of the umpires' gaze behavior (fixation/pursuit tracking, saccades, and blinks)--onset, duration, offset, and frequency--were performed between and within 4 stages (pitcher's preparation, pitcher's delivery, ball in flight, and umpire call) by umpire's skill level. The results indicated that the quiet eye of expert umpires at onset of the pitcher's release point occurred earlier and was longer in duration than near-expert umpires. Expert expert umpires. The area outside the pitcher's ball release point may be the key environment cue for the behind-the-plate umpire. PMID:23829135

  11. PVEX: An expert system for producibility/value engineering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lam, Chun S.; Moseley, Warren

    1991-01-01

    PVEX is described as an expert system that solves the problem of selection of the material and process in missile manufacturing. The producibility and the value problem has been deeply studied in the past years, and was written in dBase III and PROLOG before. A new approach is presented in that the solution is achieved by introducing hypothetical reasoning, heuristic criteria integrated with a simple hypertext system and shell programming. PVEX combines KMS with Unix scripts which graphically depicts decision trees. The decision trees convey high level qualitative problem solving knowledge to users, and a stand-alone help facility and technical documentation is available through KMS. The system developed is considerably less development costly than any other comparable expert system.

  12. Java Expert System Shell Version 6.0

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2002-06-18

    Java Expert Shell System - Jess - is a rule engine and scripting environment written entirely in Sun's Java language, Jess was orginially inspired by the CLIPS expert system shell, but has grown int a complete, distinct JAVA-influenced environment of its own. Using Jess, you can build Java applets and applications that have the capacity to "reason" using knowledge you supply in the form of declarative rules. Jess is surprisingly fast, and for some problemsmore »is faster than CLIPS, in that many Jess scripts are valid CLIPS scripts and vice-versa. Like CLIPS, Jess uses the Rete algorithm to process rules, a very efficient mechanism for solving the difficult many-to-many matching problem. Jess adds many features to CLIPS, including backwards chaining and the ability to manipulate and directly reason about Java objects. Jess is also a powerful Java scripting environment, from which you can create Java objects and call Java methods without compiling any Java Code.« less

  13. Java Expert System Shell Version 6.0

    SciTech Connect

    2002-06-18

    Java Expert Shell System - Jess - is a rule engine and scripting environment written entirely in Sun's Java language, Jess was orginially inspired by the CLIPS expert system shell, but has grown int a complete, distinct JAVA-influenced environment of its own. Using Jess, you can build Java applets and applications that have the capacity to "reason" using knowledge you supply in the form of declarative rules. Jess is surprisingly fast, and for some problems is faster than CLIPS, in that many Jess scripts are valid CLIPS scripts and vice-versa. Like CLIPS, Jess uses the Rete algorithm to process rules, a very efficient mechanism for solving the difficult many-to-many matching problem. Jess adds many features to CLIPS, including backwards chaining and the ability to manipulate and directly reason about Java objects. Jess is also a powerful Java scripting environment, from which you can create Java objects and call Java methods without compiling any Java Code.

  14. Expert system interaction with existing analysis codes

    SciTech Connect

    Ransom, V.H.; Fink, R.K.; Bertch, W.J.; Callow, R.A.

    1986-01-01

    Coupling expert systems with existing engineering analysis codes is a promising area in the field of artificial intelligence. The added intelligence can provide for easier and less costly use of the code and also reduce the potential for code misuse. This paper will discuss the methods available to allow interaction between an expert system and a large analysis code running on a mainframe. Concluding remarks will identify potential areas of expert system application with specific areas that are being considered in a current research program. The difficulty of interaction between an analysis code and an expert system is due to the incompatibility between the FORTRAN environment used for the analysis code and the AI environment used for the expert system. Three methods, excluding file transfer techniques, are discussed to help overcome this incompatibility. The first method is linking the FORTRAN routines to the LISP environment on the same computer. Various LISP dialects available on mainframes and their interlanguage communication capabilities are discussed. The second method involves network interaction between a LISP machine and a mainframe computer. Comparisons between the linking method and networking are noted. The third method involves the use of an expert system tool that is campatible with a FORTRAN environment. Several available tools are discussed. With the interaction methods identified, several potential application areas are considered. Selection of the specific areas that will be developed for the pilot project and applied to a thermal-hydraulic energy analysis code are noted.

  15. Process

    Cancer.gov

    Requests for resources may be made on the first of every month, after consultation with program staff. Scientists are invited to submit innovative and compelling discoveries that have no existing avenue for pre-clinical development aimed toward application for an IND. Requests for resources will be competitively reviewed as described above (i.e., by a evaluation panel composed of outside experts).

  16. DELPHI expert panel evaluation of Hanford high level waste tank failure modes and release quantities

    SciTech Connect

    Dunford, G.L.; Han, F.C.

    1996-09-30

    The Failure Modes and Release Quantities of the Hanford High Level Waste Tanks due to postulated accident loads were established by a DELPHI Expert Panel consisting of both on-site and off-site experts in the field of Structure and Release. The Report presents the evaluation process, accident loads, tank structural failure conclusion reached by the panel during the two-day meeting.

  17. A Tool for Automatic Verification of Real-Time Expert Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Traylor, B.; Schwuttke, U.; Quan, A.

    1994-01-01

    The creation of an automated, user-driven tool for expert system development, validation, and verification is curretly onoging at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In the new age of faster, better, cheaper missions, there is an increased willingness to utilize embedded expert systems for encapsulating and preserving mission expertise in systems which combine conventional algorithmic processing and artifical intelligence. The once-questioned role of automation in spacecraft monitoring is now becoming one of increasing importance.

  18. Molecular mimicry and horror autotoxicus: do chlamydial infections elicit autoimmunity?

    PubMed

    Swanborg, Robert H; Boros, Dov L; Whittum-Hudson, Judith A; Hudson, Alan P

    2006-01-01

    All species of the order Chlamydiales are obligate intracellular eubacterial pathogens of their various hosts. Two chlamydial species, Chlamydia trachomatis and Chlamydia pneumoniae, are primarily human pathogens, and each is known to cause important diseases. Some strains of C. trachomatis are sexually transmitted and frequently cause severe reproductive problems, primarily in women. Other strains of the organism serve as the aetiological agents for blinding trachoma, still the leading cause of preventable blindness in underdeveloped nations. C. pneumoniae is a respiratory pathogen known to cause community-acquired pneumonia. Importantly, both organisms engender an immunopathogenic response in the human host, and both have been associated with widely diverse, relatively common and currently idiopathic chronic diseases, most of which include an important autoimmune component. In this article, we explore the available experimental data regarding the possible elicitation of autoimmunity in various contexts by chlamydial infection, and we suggest several avenues for research to explore this potentially important issue further. PMID:17134529

  19. Inflectional morphology in primary progressive aphasia: An elicited production study

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Stephen M.; Brandt, Temre H.; Henry, Maya L.; Babiak, Miranda; Ogar, Jennifer M.; Salli, Chelsey; Wilson, Lisa; Peralta, Karen; Miller, Bruce L.; Gorno-Tempini, Maria Luisa

    2014-01-01

    Inflectional morphology lies at the intersection of phonology, syntax and the lexicon, three language domains that are differentially impacted in the three main variants of primary progressive aphasia (PPA). To characterize spared and impaired aspects of inflectional morphology in PPA, we elicited inflectional morphemes in 48 individuals with PPA and 13 healthy age-matched controls. We varied the factors of regularity, frequency, word class, and lexicality, and used voxel-based morphometry to identify brain regions where atrophy was predictive of deficits on particular conditions. All three PPA variants showed deficits in inflectional morphology, with the specific nature of the deficits dependent on the anatomical and linguistic features of each variant. Deficits in inflecting low-frequency irregular words were associated with semantic PPA, with lexical/semantic deficits, and with left temporal atrophy. Deficits in inflecting pseudowords were associated with non-fluent/agrammatic and logopenic variants, with phonological deficits, and with left frontal and parietal atrophy. PMID:25129631

  20. Illusory visual motion stimulus elicits postural sway in migraine patients

    PubMed Central

    Imaizumi, Shu; Honma, Motoyasu; Hibino, Haruo; Koyama, Shinichi

    2015-01-01

    Although the perception of visual motion modulates postural control, it is unknown whether illusory visual motion elicits postural sway. The present study examined the effect of illusory motion on postural sway in patients with migraine, who tend to be sensitive to it. We measured postural sway for both migraine patients and controls while they viewed static visual stimuli with and without illusory motion. The participants’ postural sway was measured when they closed their eyes either immediately after (Experiment 1), or 30 s after (Experiment 2), viewing the stimuli. The patients swayed more than the controls when they closed their eyes immediately after viewing the illusory motion (Experiment 1), and they swayed less than the controls when they closed their eyes 30 s after viewing it (Experiment 2). These results suggest that static visual stimuli with illusory motion can induce postural sway that may last for at least 30 s in patients with migraine. PMID:25972832

  1. Insect regurgitant and wounding elicit similar defense responses in poplar leaves: not something to spit at?

    PubMed

    Major, Ian T; Constabel, C Peter

    2007-01-01

    How plants perceive insect attacks is an area of active research. Numerous studies have shown that regurgitant from feeding insects elicits a defense response in plants, which is often assumed to be distinct from a wound response. We have characterized the inducible defense response in hybrid poplar and found it to be qualitatively similar between wounding and application of regurgitant from forest tent caterpillar. We suggest that this is likely attributable to our wounding treatment which is much more intense compared to most other studies. These overlapping responses appear to be activated via jasmonic acid signaling, and we speculate that they are both triggered by elicitors of plant origin. Wounding would release such elicitor molecules when leaf cells are disrupted, and regurgitant may contain them in a modified or processed form. This hypothesis could explain why some other necrosis-inducing stresses also induce herbivore defense genes. PMID:19704794

  2. Nest sanitation elicits egg discrimination in cuckoo hosts.

    PubMed

    Yang, Canchao; Chen, Min; Wang, Longwu; Liang, Wei; Møller, Anders Pape

    2015-11-01

    Nest sanitation is a nearly universal behavior in birds, while egg discrimination is a more specific adaptation that has evolved to counter brood parasitism. These two behaviors are closely related with nest sanitation being the ancestral behavior, and it has been hypothesized to constitute a preadaptation for egg discrimination. However, previous studies found little evidence to support this hypothesis. Here, we conducted an empirical test of the association between nest sanitation and egg discrimination in the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) by inserting a single non-mimetic model egg or a non-mimetic model egg plus half a peanut shell into host nests. Compared to the rejection rate of single model eggs, barn swallows significantly increased egg rejection frequency if a half peanut shell was simultaneously introduced. Our result for the first time shows the impact of nest sanitation on egg discrimination and demonstrates that nest sanitation can elicit egg discrimination in hosts of brood parasites. This study provided evidence for nest sanitation being a preadaptation to egg discrimination by facilitating egg rejection, thereby significantly advancing our understanding of avian cognition of foreign objects. Furthermore, we suggest that egg discrimination behavior in many accepters and intermediate rejecters may be lost or diluted. Such egg discrimination can be elicited and restored after nest sanitation, implying a sensitive and rapid phenotypic response to increased risk of parasitism. Our study offers a novel perspective for investigating the role of so-called intermediate rejecter individuals or species in the long-term coevolutionary cycle between brood parasites and their hosts. PMID:26160343

  3. Ocean acidification and its impacts: an expert survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gattuso, J.; Mach, K.; Morgan, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    The number of scientists investigating ocean acidification as well as the number of papers published on this issue have increased considerably in the past few years. On the one hand, the advances are welcome for the assessment of ocean acidification and its impacts. On the other hand, the volume and rapidity of the scientific developments as well as some contradictory results have created challenges for assessing the current state of knowledge and informing policy makers. Two tools are being used to synthesize the current information: meta-analysis and expert survey. In January this year, Working Groups I and II of the IPCC organized an expert meeting on ocean acidification in Okinawa. Following this meeting, we built a set of 22 statements, in consultation with several of the meeting participants. An expert survey was then conducted. It involved 52 experts who provided a considerable amount of information. The statements covered a broad array of research fields and were grouped in 3 categories: chemical aspects, biological and biogeochemical responses, and policy and socio-economic aspects. The survey results indicate a relatively strong consensus for most statements related to the past, present and future chemical aspects. Examples of consensual issues are: non-anthropogenic ocean acidification events have occurred in the geological past, anthropogenic CO2 emissions is the main (but not the only) mechanism generating the current ocean acidification event, and ocean acidification will be felt for centuries. The experts generally agreed that there will be impacts on biological and ecological processes and biogeochemical feedbacks, but for such statements, the levels of agreement were lower overall, with more variability across responses. Levels of agreements among experts surveyed were comparatively higher for statements regarding calcification, primary production and nitrogen fixation, as compared to impacts on food-webs. The levels of agreement for statements pertaining to policy and socio-economic impacts, for example on food security, were also relatively low. Thanks are due to the respondents: Andreas Andersson, James Barry, Jerry Blackford, Philip Boyd, Ken Caldeira, Long Cao, Sinead Collins, Sarah Cooley, Kim Currie, Allemand Denis, Brad deYoung, Andrew Dickson, Ken Drinkwater, Sam Dupont, Jonathan Erez, Richard Feely, Maoz Fine, Kunshan Gao, Marion Gehlen, Jason Hall-Spencer, Christoph Heinze, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Gretchen Hofmann, Roberto Iglesias-Prieto, Maria Debora Iglesias-Rodriguez, Akio Ishida, Masao Ishii, Atsushi Ishimatsu, Haruko Kurihara, Kitack Lee, Su Mei Liu, Salvador Lluch-Cota, Jeremy T. Mathis, Ben McNeil, Philip Munday, John Pandolfi, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Alexander Polonsky, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Ulf Riebesell, Rongshuo, Chris Sabine, Daniela Schmidt, Brad Seibel, Yoshihisa Shirayama, Atsushi Suzuki, Carol Turley, Nicola Wannicke, Poh Poh Wong, Michiyo Yamamoto-Kawai and Peter Zavialov.

  4. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawlor, Joseph

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is the field of scientific inquiry concerned with designing machine systems that can simulate human mental processes. The field draws upon theoretical constructs from a wide variety of disciplines, including mathematics, psychology, linguistics, neurophysiology, computer science, and electronic engineering. Some of the…

  5. SCRIPTED DIALOGS VERSUS IMPROVISATION: LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT EMOTIONAL ELICITATION TECHNIQUES FROM THE IEMOCAP DATABASE

    E-print Network

    Busso, Carlos

    emotions ·Recent efforts have focused on studying better elicitation techniques [1, 2] ·Two appealing) ­Happiness,sadness,anger,surprise,fear,disgust,frustration,excited,neutral,and other ·Attribute based

  6. Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fortner, David B.; Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.

    2004-01-01

    A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

  7. Evaluation of user acceptance of a clinical expert system.

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, R M; Lundsgaarde, H P

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To measure the attitudes of physicians and nurses who use the Health Evaluation through Logical Processing (HELP) clinical information system. DESIGN: Questionnaire survey of 360 attending physicians and 960 staff nurses practicing at the LDS Hospital. The physicians' responses were signed, permitting follow-up for nonresponse and use of demographic data from staff files. The nurses' responses were anonymous and their demographic data were obtained from the questionnaires. MEASUREMENTS: Fixed-choice questions with a Likert-type scale, supplemented by free-text comments. Question categories included: computer experience; general attitudes about impact of the system on practice; ranking of available functions; and desired future capabilities. RESULTS: The response rate was 68% for the physicians and 39% for the nurses. Age, specialty, and general computer experience did not correlate with attitudes. Access to patient data and clinical alerts were rated highly. Respondents did not feel that expert computer systems would lead to external monitoring, or that these systems might compromise patient privacy. The physicians and nurses did not feel that computerized decision support decreased their decision-making power. CONCLUSION: The responses to the questionnaire and "free-text comments" provided encouragement for future development and deployment of medical expert systems at LDS Hospital and sister hospitals. Although there has been some fear on the part of medical expert system developers that physicians would not adapt to or appreciate recommendations given by these systems, the results presented here are promising and may be of help to other system developers and evaluators. PMID:7850568

  8. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141... Marketed Unapproved New Animal Drugs for Minor Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert panel is the first step in the...

  9. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141... Marketed Unapproved New Animal Drugs for Minor Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert panel is the first step in the...

  10. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141... Marketed Unapproved New Animal Drugs for Minor Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert panel is the first step in the...

  11. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141... Marketed Unapproved New Animal Drugs for Minor Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert panel is the first step in the...

  12. 21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Qualified expert panels. 516.141 Section 516.141... Marketed Unapproved New Animal Drugs for Minor Species § 516.141 Qualified expert panels. (a) Establishment of a qualified expert panel. Establishing a qualified expert panel is the first step in the...

  13. Marcus Hutter -1 -Online Prediction Bayes versus Experts Online Prediction

    E-print Network

    Hutter, Marcus

    /online prediction: Setup · Bayesian Sequence Prediction (Bayes) · Prediction with Expert Advice (PEA) · PEA Bounds versus Bayes Bounds · PEA Bounds reduced to Bayes Bounds · Open Problems, Discussion, More #12;Marcus versus Experts Prediction with Expert Advice (PEA) - Setup Given a countable class of E experts, each

  14. System and method for creating expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hughes, Peter M. (Inventor); Luczak, Edward C. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.

  15. Expert system verification and validation study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    French, Scott W.; Hamilton, David

    1992-01-01

    Five workshops on verification and validation (V&V) of expert systems (ES) where taught during this recent period of performance. Two key activities, previously performed under this contract, supported these recent workshops (1) Survey of state-of-the-practice of V&V of ES and (2) Development of workshop material and first class. The first activity involved performing an extensive survey of ES developers in order to answer several questions regarding the state-of-the-practice in V&V of ES. These questions related to the amount and type of V&V done and the successfulness of this V&V. The next key activity involved developing an intensive hands-on workshop in V&V of ES. This activity involved surveying a large number of V&V techniques, conventional as well as ES specific ones. In addition to explaining the techniques, we showed how each technique could be applied on a sample problem. References were included in the workshop material, and cross referenced to techniques, so that students would know where to go to find additional information about each technique. In addition to teaching specific techniques, we included an extensive amount of material on V&V concepts and how to develop a V&V plan for an ES project. We felt this material was necessary so that developers would be prepared to develop an orderly and structured approach to V&V. That is, they would have a process that supported the use of the specific techniques. Finally, to provide hands-on experience, we developed a set of case study exercises. These exercises were to provide an opportunity for the students to apply all the material (concepts, techniques, and planning material) to a realistic problem.

  16. EXHIBITION EXPERTS The following experts are key members of the team responsible for bringing Butterflies +

    E-print Network

    Miller, Scott

    EXHIBITION EXPERTS The following experts are key members of the team responsible for bringing of this exciting new exhibition. For additional information, contact: Emilie Moghadam Randall Kremer (202) 857-2212 (202) 633-2950 emilie.moghadam@fleishman.com kremerr@si.edu Nathan Erwin, Exhibition Manager

  17. Adding an Expert to the Team: The Expert Flight Plan Critic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gibbons, Andrew; Waki, Randy; Fairweather, Peter

    2008-01-01

    This paper reports the development of a practical tool that provides expert feedback to students following an extended simulation exercise in cross-country flight planning. In contrast to development for laboratory settings, the development of an expert instructional product for everyday use posed some interesting challenges, including dealing…

  18. A Generic Expert Scheduling System Architecture and Toolkit: GUESS (Generically Used Expert Scheduling System)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liebowitz, Jay; Krishnamurthy, Vijaya; Rodens, Ira; Houston, Chapman; Liebowitz, Alisa; Baek, Seung; Radko, Joe; Zeide, Janet

    1996-01-01

    Scheduling has become an increasingly important element in today's society and workplace. Within the NASA environment, scheduling is one of the most frequently performed and challenging functions. Towards meeting NASA's scheduling needs, a research version of a generic expert scheduling system architecture and toolkit has been developed. This final report describes the development and testing of GUESS (Generically Used Expert Scheduling System).

  19. Potentially bioaccessible phenolics, antioxidant activity and nutritional quality of young buckwheat sprouts affected by elicitation and elicitation supported by phenylpropanoid pathway precursor feeding.

    PubMed

    ?wieca, Micha?

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents the study on impact of elicitation and the phenylpropanoid pathway feeding on the nutritional quality, the potentially bioaccessible phenolics and the antioxidant capacity of young buckwheat sprouts. Phenolics content was increased by elicitation and feeding with tyrosine and shikimic acid--an elevation of 30% and 17%, respectively. Antioxidant capacity was improved by feeding with tyrosine--an increase of 16.7% and 17.1% in both untreated and treated sprouts, respectively. The highest protein digestibility was determined for the control sprouts and those obtained after tyrosine feeding. The lowest starch digestibility was found for elicited sprouts obtained from seeds fed with tyrosine (a decrease by 52%). An increase of expected glycemic index by 38% was determined for elicited sprouts obtained after phenylalanine feeding. Starch and protein digestibility were negatively correlated with total phenolics (r = -0.55 and -0.58, respectively), however starch digestibility was also affected by resistant starch content. PMID:26304392

  20. Adaptive control with an expert system based supervisory level. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sullivan, Gerald A.

    1991-01-01

    Adaptive control is presently one of the methods available which may be used to control plants with poorly modelled dynamics or time varying dynamics. Although many variations of adaptive controllers exist, a common characteristic of all adaptive control schemes, is that input/output measurements from the plant are used to adjust a control law in an on-line fashion. Ideally the adjustment mechanism of the adaptive controller is able to learn enough about the dynamics of the plant from input/output measurements to effectively control the plant. In practice, problems such as measurement noise, controller saturation, and incorrect model order, to name a few, may prevent proper adjustment of the controller and poor performance or instability result. In this work we set out to avoid the inadequacies of procedurally implemented safety nets, by introducing a two level control scheme in which an expert system based 'supervisor' at the upper level provides all the safety net functions for an adaptive controller at the lower level. The expert system is based on a shell called IPEX, (Interactive Process EXpert), that we developed specifically for the diagnosis and treatment of dynamic systems. Some of the more important functions that the IPEX system provides are: (1) temporal reasoning; (2) planning of diagnostic activities; and (3) interactive diagnosis. Also, because knowledge and control logic are separate, the incorporation of new diagnostic and treatment knowledge is relatively simple. We note that the flexibility available in the system to express diagnostic and treatment knowledge, allows much greater functionality than could ever be reasonably expected from procedural implementations of safety nets. The remainder of this chapter is divided into three sections. In section 1.1 we give a detailed review of the literature in the area of supervisory systems for adaptive controllers. In particular, we describe the evolution of safety nets from simple ad hoc techniques, up to the use of expert systems for more advanced supervision capabilities.

  1. Meanings & motives. Experts debating tobacco addiction.

    PubMed

    Mars, Sarah G; Ling, Pamela M

    2008-10-01

    Over the last 50 years, tobacco has been excluded from and then included in the category of addictive substances. We investigated influences on these opposing definitions and their application in expert witness testimony in litigation in the 1990s and 2000s. A scientist with ties to the tobacco industry influenced the selection of a definition of addiction that led to the classification of tobacco as a "habituation" in the 1964 Surgeon General's Advisory Committee report. Tobacco was later defined as addictive in the 1988 surgeon general's report. Expert witnesses for tobacco companies used the 1964 report's definition until Philip Morris Tobacco Company publicly changed its position in 1997 to agree that nicotine was addictive. Expert witnesses for plaintiffs suing the tobacco industry used the 1988 report's definition, arguing that new definitions were superior because of scientific advance. Both sides viewed addiction as an objective entity that could be defined more or less accurately. PMID:18703459

  2. A preliminary study to understand tacit knowledge and visual routines of medical experts through gaze tracking.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Blake; Shyu, Chi-Ren

    2010-01-01

    Many decisions made by medical experts are based on scans from advanced imaging technologies. Interpreting a medical image is a trained, systematic procedure and an excellent target for identifying potential visual routines through image informatics. These visual routines derived from experts contain many clues about visual knowledge and its representation. This study uses an inexpensive webcam-based gaze tracking method to collect data from multiple technologists' survey of medical and non-medical images. Through computational analysis of the results, we expect to provide insight into the behaviors and properties related to medical visual routines. Discovering the visual processes associated with medical images will help us recognize and understand the tacit knowledge gained from extensive experience with medical imagery. These expert routines could potentially be used to reduce medical error, train new experts, and provide an understanding of the human visual system in medicine. PMID:21346933

  3. Brain mechanisms of persuasion: how ‘expert power’ modulates memory and attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

    2008-01-01

    Human behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as ’expert power’, is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting positive effect on memory for and attitude towards the object. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we probed the neural processes predicting these behavioural effects. Expert context was associated with distributed left-lateralized brain activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices related to active semantic elaboration. Furthermore, experts enhanced subsequent memory effects in the medial temporal lobe (i.e. in hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus) involved in memory formation. Experts also affected subsequent attitude effects in the caudate nucleus involved in trustful behaviour, reward processing and learning. These results may suggest that the persuasive effect of experts is mediated by modulation of caudate activity resulting in a re-evaluation of the object in terms of its perceived value. Results extend our view of the functional role of the dorsal striatum in social interaction and enable us to make the first steps toward a neuroscientific model of persuasion. PMID:19015077

  4. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

    PubMed Central

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

  5. Prsrw: An Expert System for Postulating Andinferring Resistance Genes to Wheat Stripe Rust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yu; Wang, Lianzhi; Xu, Shichang; Bian, Qiang; Wang, Fengle

    Postulating and inferring resistance genes to wheat stripe rust are a complicated process and need abundant expertise. An expert system for postulating and inferring resistance genes to wheat stripe rust (PRSRW) was developed by China Agricultural University. The process of PRSRW was described on the basis of the user's requirement. The system structure and its main components were introduced, including database, inference process and user interface. Some issues regarding knowledge acquisition and representation of the expert system were concerned. A mount of experimental results showed this system was feasible and effective. At last, a conclusion was summarized.

  6. Emphasizing Expert Practice with Spaced Recall

    E-print Network

    Torigoe, Eugene T

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores an intervention that emphasizes expert practice using spaced recall. Interviews were performed with two students who were shown physics solutions, and were asked to repeatedly recall the solutions over a period of weeks. The students reflected that they became aware of the importance of using the diagrams to create equations, as well as the utility of reasoning over pure memorization. We believe that the structure of this activity may be an effective way of encouraging expert practice to introductory physics students.

  7. The Management and Security Expert (MASE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Mark D.; Barr, Stanley J.; Gryphon, Coranth D.; Keegan, Jeff; Kniker, Catherine A.; Krolak, Patrick D.

    1991-01-01

    The Management and Security Expert (MASE) is a distributed expert system that monitors the operating systems and applications of a network. It is capable of gleaning the information provided by the different operating systems in order to optimize hardware and software performance; recognize potential hardware and/or software failure, and either repair the problem before it becomes an emergency, or notify the systems manager of the problem; and monitor applications and known security holes for indications of an intruder or virus. MASE can eradicate much of the guess work of system management.

  8. Commercial Expert-System-Building Software Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, William B.

    1989-01-01

    Report evaluates commercially-available expert-system-building tools in terms of structures, representations of knowledge, inference mechanisms, interfaces with developers and end users, and capabilities of performing such functions as diagnosis and design. Software tools commercialized derivatives of artificial-intelligence systems developed by researchers at universities and research organizations. Reducing time to develop expert system by order of magnitude compared to that required with such traditional artificial development languages as LISP. Table lists 20 such tools, rating attributes as strong, fair, programmable by user, or having no capability in various criteria.

  9. Expert system terms and building tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, William B.

    1988-01-01

    The characteristics of an Expert System Building Tool (ESBT) capable of inference and hypothetical reasoning are discussed. The inference capabilities of ESBTs allow such functions as classification, design-synthesis, forecasting, decision-aiding, scheduling and planning, real-time monitoring, situation assessment, the discovery of novel relations, and debugging. ESBTs are noted to have made possible order-of-magnitude improvements in expert system construction. Higher-end ESBTs are moving from LISP machines to less expensive workstations, and lower-end ones are appearing on PCs.

  10. Rocket engine control and monitoring expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ali, Moonis; Crawford, Roger

    1988-01-01

    This paper focuses on the application of expert systems technology to the automatic detection, verification and correction of anomalous rocket engine operations through interfacing with an intelligent adaptive control system. The design of a reliable and intelligent propulsion control and monitoring system is outlined which includes the architecture of an Integrated Expert System (IES) serving as the core component. The IES functions include automatic knowledge acquisition, integrated knowledge base, and fault diagnosis and prediction methodology. The results of fault analysis and diagnostic techniques are presented for an example fault in the SSME main combustion chamber injectors.

  11. Hospital workers' perceptions of waste: a qualitative study involving photo-elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Goff, Sarah L.; Kleppel, Reva; Lindenauer, Peter K.; Rothberg, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To elicit sources of waste as viewed by hospital workers Design Qualitative study using photo-elicitation, an ethnographic technique for prompting in-depth discussion Setting U.S. academic tertiary care hospital Participants Physicians, nurses, pharmacists, administrative support personnel, administrators and respiratory therapists Methods A purposive sample of personnel at an academic tertiary care hospital was invited to take up to 10 photos of waste. Participants discussed their selections using photos as prompts during in-depth interviews. Transcripts were analyzed in an iterative process using grounded theory; open and axial coding was performed, followed by selective and thematic coding to develop major themes and sub-themes. Results Twenty-one participants (9 women, average number of years in field=19.3) took 159 photos. Major themes included types of waste and recommendations to reduce waste. Types of waste comprised four major categories: Time, Materials, Energy and Talent. Participants emphasized time wastage (50% of photos) over other types of waste such as excess utilization (2.5%). Energy and Talent were novel categories of waste. Recommendations to reduce waste included interventions at the micro-level (e.g. individual/ward), meso-level (e.g. institution) and macro-level (e.g., payor/public policy). Conclusions The waste hospital workers identified differed from previously described waste both in the types of waste described and the emphasis placed on wasted time. The findings of this study represent a possible need for education of hospital workers about known types of waste, an opportunity to assess the impact of novel types of waste described and an opportunity to intervene to reduce the waste identified. PMID:23748192

  12. Coxiella burnetii and Leishmania mexicana residing within similar parasitophorous vacuoles elicit disparate host responses.

    PubMed

    Millar, Jess A; Valdés, Raquel; Kacharia, Fenil R; Landfear, Scott M; Cambronne, Eric D; Raghavan, Rahul

    2015-01-01

    Coxiella burnetii is a bacterium that thrives in an acidic parasitophorous vacuole (PV) derived from lysosomes. Leishmania mexicana, a eukaryote, has also independently evolved to live in a morphologically similar PV. As Coxiella and Leishmania are highly divergent organisms that cause different diseases, we reasoned that their respective infections would likely elicit distinct host responses despite producing phenotypically similar parasite-containing vacuoles. The objective of this study was to investigate, at the molecular level, the macrophage response to each pathogen. Infection of THP-1 (human monocyte/macrophage) cells with Coxiella and Leishmania elicited disparate host responses. At 5 days post-infection, when compared to uninfected cells, 1057 genes were differentially expressed (746 genes up-regulated and 311 genes down-regulated) in C. burnetii infected cells, whereas 698 genes (534 genes up-regulated and 164 genes down-regulated) were differentially expressed in L. mexicana infected cells. Interestingly, of the 1755 differentially expressed genes identified in this study, only 126 genes (~7%) are common to both infections. We also discovered that 1090 genes produced mRNA isoforms at significantly different levels under the two infection conditions, suggesting that alternate proteins encoded by the same gene might have important roles in host response to each infection. Additionally, we detected 257 micro RNAs (miRNAs) that were expressed in THP-1 cells, and identified miRNAs that were specifically expressed during Coxiella or Leishmania infections. Collectively, this study identified host mRNAs and miRNAs that were influenced by Coxiella and/or Leishmania infections, and our data indicate that although their PVs are morphologically similar, Coxiella and Leishmania have evolved different strategies that perturb distinct host processes to create and thrive within their respective intracellular niches. PMID:26300862

  13. Coxiella burnetii and Leishmania mexicana residing within similar parasitophorous vacuoles elicit disparate host responses

    PubMed Central

    Millar, Jess A.; Valdés, Raquel; Kacharia, Fenil R.; Landfear, Scott M.; Cambronne, Eric D.; Raghavan, Rahul

    2015-01-01

    Coxiella burnetii is a bacterium that thrives in an acidic parasitophorous vacuole (PV) derived from lysosomes. Leishmania mexicana, a eukaryote, has also independently evolved to live in a morphologically similar PV. As Coxiella and Leishmania are highly divergent organisms that cause different diseases, we reasoned that their respective infections would likely elicit distinct host responses despite producing phenotypically similar parasite-containing vacuoles. The objective of this study was to investigate, at the molecular level, the macrophage response to each pathogen. Infection of THP-1 (human monocyte/macrophage) cells with Coxiella and Leishmania elicited disparate host responses. At 5 days post-infection, when compared to uninfected cells, 1057 genes were differentially expressed (746 genes up-regulated and 311 genes down-regulated) in C. burnetii infected cells, whereas 698 genes (534 genes up-regulated and 164 genes down-regulated) were differentially expressed in L. mexicana infected cells. Interestingly, of the 1755 differentially expressed genes identified in this study, only 126 genes (~7%) are common to both infections. We also discovered that 1090 genes produced mRNA isoforms at significantly different levels under the two infection conditions, suggesting that alternate proteins encoded by the same gene might have important roles in host response to each infection. Additionally, we detected 257 micro RNAs (miRNAs) that were expressed in THP-1 cells, and identified miRNAs that were specifically expressed during Coxiella or Leishmania infections. Collectively, this study identified host mRNAs and miRNAs that were influenced by Coxiella and/or Leishmania infections, and our data indicate that although their PVs are morphologically similar, Coxiella and Leishmania have evolved different strategies that perturb distinct host processes to create and thrive within their respective intracellular niches. PMID:26300862

  14. Specific volatile compounds from mango elicit oviposition in gravid Bactrocera dorsalis females.

    PubMed

    Kamala Jayanthi, Pagadala D; Kempraj, Vivek; Aurade, Ravindra M; Venkataramanappa, Ravindra K; Nandagopal, Bakthavatsalam; Verghese, Abraham; Bruce, Toby J A

    2014-03-01

    Selecting a suitable oviposition site is crucial to the fitness of female insects because it determines the successful development of their offspring. During the oviposition process, an insect must use cues from the external environment to make an appropriate choice of where to lay eggs. Generalist insects can detect and react to a plethora of cues, but are under selection pressure to adopt the most reliable ones to override noise and increase efficiency in finding hosts. The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a generalist that utilizes a multitude of fruits as oviposition sites. However, the identity and nature of oviposition stimulants for B. dorsalis is not well known. Recently, we identified a volatile compound ?-octalactone that elicits an innate oviposition response in B. dorsalis. We screened 21 EAD-active volatiles, identified from mango, for their oviposition stimulant activity. 1-Octen-3-ol, ethyl tiglate, and benzothiazole instigated oviposition in gravid B. dorsalis females. Flies deposited most of their eggs into pulp discs with oviposition-stimulants, and only a small fraction of eggs were laid into control discs. In a binary choice oviposition assay, 95.1, 93.7, and 65.6 % of eggs were laid in discs treated with 1-octen-3-ol, ethyl tiglate, and benzothiazole, respectively. Single plate two-choice assays proved that oviposition-stimulants were crucial in oviposition site selection by gravid female B. dorsalis. In simulated semi-natural assays, gravid B. dorsalis females accurately differentiated between fruits with and without 1-octen-3-ol, ethyl tiglate, and ?-octalactone by laying more eggs on the treated fruit. However, benzothiazole did not elicit an increase in oviposition when presented in this context. Our results suggest that the identified oviposition-stimulants are 'key' compounds, which the flies associate with suitable oviposition sites. PMID:24623046

  15. Novices and Experts in Geoinformatics: the Cognitive Gap.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhilin, M.

    2012-04-01

    Modern geoinformatics is an extremely powerful tool for problem analysis and decision making in various fields. Currently general public uses geoinformatics predominantly for navigating (GPS) and sharing information about particular places (GoogleMaps, Wikimapia). Communities also use geoinformatics for particular purposes: fans of history use it to correspond historical and actual maps (www.retromap.ru), birdwatchers point places where they met birds (geobirds.com/rangemaps) etc. However the majority of stakeholders local authorities are not aware of advantages and possibilities of geoinformatics. The same problem is observed for students. At the same time many professional geoinformatic tools are developed, but sometimes the experts even can't explain their purpose to non-experts. So the question is how to shrink the gap between experts and non-experts in understanding and application of geoinformatics. We think that this gap has a cognitive basis. According to modern cognitive theories (Shiffrin-Atkinson and descending) the information primary has to pass through the perceptual filter that cuts off the information that seems to be irrelevant. The mind estimates the relevance implicitly (unconsciously) basing on previous knowledge and judgments what is important. Then it comes to the working memory which is used (a) for proceeding and (b) for problem solving. The working memory has limited capacity and can operate only with about 7 objects simultaneously. Then information passes to the long-term memory that is of unlimited capacity. There it is stored as more or less complex structures with associative links. When necessary it is extracted into the working memory. If great amount of information is linked ("chunked") the working memory operates with it as one object of seven thus overcoming the limitations of the working memory capacity. To adopt any information it should (a) pass through the perceptual filter, (b) not to overload the working memory and (c) to be structured in the long-term memory. Expert easily adopt domain-specific information because they (a) understand terminology and consider the information to be important thus passing it through the perceptual filter and (b) have a lot of complex domain-specific chunks that are processed by the working memory as a whole thus avoiding to overload it. Novices (students and general public) have neither understanding and feeling importance nor necessary chunks. The following measures should be taken to bridge experts' and novices' understanding of geoinformatics. Expert community should popularize geoscientific problems developing understandable language and available tools for their solving. This requires close collaboration with educational system (especially second education). If students understand a problem, they can find and apply appropriate tool for it. Geoscientific problems and models are extremely complex. In cognitive terms, they require hierarchy of chunks. This hierarchy should coherently develop beginning from simple ones later joining them to complex. It requires an appropriate sequence of learning tasks. There is no necessity in correct solutions - the students should understand how are they solved and realize limitations of models. We think that tasks of weather forecast, global climate modeling etc are suitable. The first step on bridging experts and novices is the elaboration of a set and a sequence of learning tasks and its sequence as well as tools for their solution. The tools should be easy for everybody who understands the task and as versatile as possible - otherwise students will waste a lot of time mastering it. This development requires close collaboration between geoscientists and educators.

  16. An Expert Machine Tools Selection System for Turning Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, C. F.; Khalil, S. N.; Karjanto, J.; Wahidin, L. S.; Chen, W.; Rauterberg, G. W. M.

    2015-09-01

    The turning machining process is an important process in the manufacturing industry. It is important to select the right tool for the turning process so that the manufacturing cost will be decreased. The main objective of this research is to select the most suitable machine tools with respect to user input requirement. The selection criteria are based on rule based expert system and multi-criteria weighted average method. The developed system consists of Knowledge Acquisition Module, Machine Tool Selection Module, User Interface Module and Help Module. The system capable of selecting the most suitable machine along with its full specification and ranks the machines based on criteria weighted. The main benefits from using the system is to reduce the complexity in the decision making for selecting the most appropriate machine tools to suit one requirement in the turning process for manufacturing industry.

  17. Using Video Clips to Support Requirements Elicitation in Focus Groups -An Experience Report

    E-print Network

    Using Video Clips to Support Requirements Elicitation in Focus Groups - An Experience Report Gregor and solution ideas, and this video material was used in focus group discussions. The paper describes and to use this video clip as a tool for elicitating requirements in focus group discussions. It is claimed

  18. Journal of Neuroscience Methods 89 (1999) 133140 Classical conditioning of the electrically elicited blink reflex in

    E-print Network

    Timmer, Jens

    1999-01-01

    elicited blink reflex in humans: a new method of data analysis F.X. Glocker a, *, M. Lauk b,c , D. Fo the analysis of classical conditioning of the electrically elicited blink reflex in humans. To optimize. Keywords: Basal ganglia; Blink reflex; Cerebellum; Classical conditioning; Habituation; Motor learning 1

  19. Designedly Incomplete Utterances: A Pedagogical Practice for Eliciting Knowledge Displays in Error Correction Sequences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koshik, Irene

    2002-01-01

    Uses a conversation analytic framework to analyze a practice used by teachers in 1-0-1, second language writing conferences when eliciting self-correction of students' written language errors. This type of turn used to elicit a knowledge display from the student is labeled designedly incomplete utterance (DIU). Teachers use DIUs made up of…

  20. Eliciting Proto-Imperatives and Proto-Declaratives in Children with Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vandereet, Joke; Maes, Bea; Lembrechts, Dirk; Zink, Inge

    2010-01-01

    Background: Although high-structured elicitation tasks have been shown to be efficient means to sample communication in children with intellectual disabilities, their validity and reliability remain to be evaluated. The aims of this study were threefold: (i) to evaluate the eliciting potential, (ii) to examine the utterance forms of…

  1. Positive Proprioceptive Feedback Elicited By Isometric Contractions of Ankle Flexors on Pretibial Motoneurons in Cats

    E-print Network

    Positive Proprioceptive Feedback Elicited By Isometric Contractions of Ankle Flexors on Pretibial proprioceptive feedback elicited by isometric contractions of ankle flexors on pretibial motoneurons in cats. J inhibition. This contraction-induced Ia excitatory feedback in ankle flexors might either reinforce Ia

  2. Stone Soup: Photo-Elicitation as a Learning Tool in the Food Geography Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurtz, Hilda E.; Wood, Jason

    2014-01-01

    This paper showcases self-reflective and inclusive pedagogy using photo-elicitation in a food geography course assignment. The Stone Soup project positions students as both researchers and participant-subjects in a participant-driven photo-elicitation (PDPE) study of students' foodways. Student papers for this assignment demonstrate rich…

  3. Naturalistic Observations of Elicited Expressive Communication of Children with Autism: An Analysis of Teacher Instructions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiang, Hsu-Min

    2009-01-01

    This study observed expressive communication of 17 Australian and 15 Taiwanese children with autism who were mute or had limited spoken language during 2 hour regular school routines and analyzed teacher instructions associated with elicited expressive communication. Results indicated: (a) the frequency of occurrence of elicited expressive…

  4. Identifying and Responding to Personal Stressors: Utilizing Photo Elicitation in Health Education Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Theresa

    2014-01-01

    The "Photo Elicitation Project" teaching idea applies the techniques of photo elicitation to stress prevention and management. This activity is designed to help students identify their personal stressors and to determine which stress prevention strategies are most useful for them. Objectives: students will be able to (a) identify current…

  5. Elicitation Techniques: Getting People to Talk about Ideas They Don't Usually Talk About

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barton, Keith C.

    2015-01-01

    Elicitation techniques are a category of research tasks that use visual, verbal, or written stimuli to encourage participants to talk about their ideas. These tasks are particularly useful for exploring topics that may be difficult to discuss in formal interviews, such as those that involve sensitive issues or rely on tacit knowledge. Elicitation

  6. Real time AI expert system for robotic applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Follin, John F.

    1987-01-01

    A computer controlled multi-robot process cell to demonstrate advanced technologies for the demilitarization of obsolete chemical munitions was developed. The methods through which the vision system and other sensory inputs were used by the artificial intelligence to provide the information required to direct the robots to complete the desired task are discussed. The mechanisms that the expert system uses to solve problems (goals), the different rule data base, and the methods for adapting this control system to any device that can be controlled or programmed through a high level computer interface are discussed.

  7. Immunological Responses Elicited by Different Infection Regimes with Strongyloides ratti

    PubMed Central

    Paterson, Steve; Wilkes, Clare; Bleay, Colin; Viney, Mark E.

    2008-01-01

    Nematode infections are a ubiquitous feature of vertebrate life. In nature, such nematode infections are acquired by continued exposure to infective stages over a prolonged period of time. By contrast, experimental laboratory infections are typically induced by the administration of a single (and often large) dose of infective stages. Previous work has shown that the size of an infection dose can have significant effects on anti-nematode immune responses. Here we investigated the effect of different infection regimes of Strongyloides ratti, comparing single and repeated dose infections, on the host immune response that was elicited. We considered and compared infections of the same size, but administered in different ways. We considered infection size in two ways: the maximum dose of worms administered and the cumulative worm exposure time. We found that both infection regimes resulted in Th2-type immune response, characterised by IL4 and IL13 produced by S. ratti stimulated mesenteric lymph node cells, anti-S. ratti IgG1 and intestinal rat mast cell protease II (RMCPII) production. We observed some small quantitative immunological differences between different infection regimes, in which the concentration of IL4, IL13, anti-S. ratti IgG1 and IgG2a and RMCPII were affected. However, these differences were quantitatively relatively modest compared with the temporal dynamics of the anti-S. ratti immune response as a whole. PMID:18575588

  8. Optic nerve evoked potentials elicited by electrical stimulation.

    PubMed

    Kikuchi, Yasuhiro; Sasaki, Tatsuya; Matsumoto, Masato; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Itakura, Takeshi; Kodama, Namio

    2005-07-01

    This study investigated whether the optic nerve evoked potential (ONEP) elicited by electrical stimulation of the optic nerve can serve as a reliable intraoperative indicator of visual function. In the experimental study, two silver-ball stimulating electrodes were placed on the dog optic nerve adjacent to the apex of the orbit and one recording electrode was placed on the optic nerve near the chiasm. The nerve was stimulated with 0.1 to 10 mA rectangular pulses. Stable and reproducible ONEPs were obtained. The ONEPs were not influenced by electromyographic potentials and were recorded more clearly on the optic nerve than on the surrounding tissue. Stepwise incremental transection of the thickness of the nerve resulted in incremental amplitude reduction proportional to the transected area. No response was recorded after complete sectioning of the nerve. In the clinical study, recordings were obtained from 15 patients after craniotomy to treat parasellar tumors or cerebral aneurysms. Reproducible ONEPs were recorded intraoperatively from the electrode placed on the optic nerve near the chiasm in 14 of 15 patients. In the remaining patient, the ONEP, recorded only after tumor removal because the optic nerve was stretched and extremely thin, was remarkably small and the patient developed unilateral blindness postoperatively. These experimental and clinical results suggest the possibility of intraoperative monitoring of visual function in patients undergoing craniotomy for the treatment of lesions near the optic nerve. PMID:16041180

  9. Reading the lesson: eliciting requirements for a mammography training application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartswood, M.; Blot, L.; Taylor, P.; Anderson, S.; Procter, R.; Wilkinson, L.; Smart, L.

    2009-02-01

    Demonstrations of a prototype training tool were used to elicit requirements for an intelligent training system for screening mammography. The prototype allowed senior radiologists (mentors) to select cases from a distributed database of images to meet the specific training requirements of junior colleagues (trainees) and then provided automated feedback in response to trainees' attempts at interpretation. The tool was demonstrated to radiologists and radiographers working in the breast screening service at four evaluation sessions. Participants highlighted ease of selecting cases that can deliver specific learning objectives as important for delivering effective training. To usefully structure a large data set of training images we undertook a classification exercise of mentor authored free text 'learning points' attached to training case obtained from two screening centres (n=333, n=129 respectively). We were able to adduce a hierarchy of abstract categories representing classes of lesson that groups of cases were intended to convey (e.g. Temporal change, Misleading juxtapositions, Position of lesion, Typical/Atypical presentation, and so on). In this paper we present the method used to devise this classification, the classification scheme itself, initial user-feedback, and our plans to incorporated it into a software tool to aid case selection.

  10. Micafungin Elicits an Immunomodulatory Effect in Galleria mellonella and Mice.

    PubMed

    Fuchs, Beth Burgwyn; Li, Yan; Li, Dedong; Johnston, Tatiana; Hendricks, Gabriel; Li, Gang; Rajamuthiah, Rajmohan; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-02-01

    The echinocandin family of drugs is well characterized for antifungal function that inhibits ?-D-glucan synthesis. The aim of this work was to study whether micafungin, a member of the echinocandin family, elicits additional activities that prime the host's immune response. We found that in a Galleria mellonella model, prophylactic treatment with micafungin extended the life of Staphylococcus aureus-infected larvae (a pathogen to which the drug demonstrates no direct antimicrobial activity) compared to insects that did not receive micafungin (P < 0.05). The inhibition of pathogens in the G. mellonella infection model was characterized by a 2.43-fold increase in hemocyte density, compared to larvae inoculated with PBS. In a murine model where animals were provided micafungin prophylaxis 3 days prior to macrophage collection, macrophages were found associated with an average 0.9 more fungal cells per macrophage as compared to saline-treated animals. Interestingly, micafungin-stimulated macrophages killed 11.6 ± 6.2 % of fungal cells compared to 3.8 ± 2.4 % of macrophages from saline-treated animals. The prophylactic provision of micafungin prior to Candida albicans infection was characterized by an increase in the proinflammatory cytokines CXCL13 and SPP1 by 11- and 6.9-fold, respectively. In conclusion, micafungin demonstrated the ability to stimulate phagocytic cells and promote an immune response that can inhibit microbial infections. PMID:26384671

  11. Expert systems built by the Expert: An evaluation of OPS5

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackson, Robert

    1987-01-01

    Two expert systems were written in OPS5 by the expert, a Ph.D. astronomer with no prior experience in artificial intelligence or expert systems, without the use of a knowledge engineer. The first system was built from scratch and uses 146 rules to check for duplication of scientific information within a pool of prospective observations. The second system was grafted onto another expert system and uses 149 additional rules to estimate the spacecraft and ground resources consumed by a set of prospective observations. The small vocabulary, the IF this occurs THEN do that logical structure of OPS5, and the ability to follow program execution allowed the expert to design and implement these systems with only the data structures and rules of another OPS5 system as an example. The modularity of the rules in OPS5 allowed the second system to modify the rulebase of the system onto which it was grafted without changing the code or the operation of that system. These experiences show that experts are able to develop their own expert systems due to the ease of programming and code reusability in OPS5.

  12. A Semiautomated Framework for Integrating Expert Knowledge into Disease Marker Identification

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Jing; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Varnum, Susan M.; Brown, Joseph N.; Riensche, Roderick M.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Jacobs, Jon M.; Hoidal, John R.; Scholand, Mary Beth; Pounds, Joel G.; Blackburn, Michael R.; Rodland, Karin D.; McDermott, Jason E.

    2013-10-01

    Background. The availability of large complex data sets generated by high throughput technologies has enabled the recent proliferation of disease biomarker studies. However, a recurring problem in deriving biological information from large data sets is how to best incorporate expert knowledge into the biomarker selection process. Objective. To develop a generalizable framework that can incorporate expert knowledge into data-driven processes in a semiautomated way while providing a metric for optimization in a biomarker selection scheme. Methods. The framework was implemented as a pipeline consisting of five components for the identification of signatures from integrated clustering (ISIC). Expert knowledge was integrated into the biomarker identification process using the combination of two distinct approaches; a distance-based clustering approach and an expert knowledge-driven functional selection. Results. The utility of the developed framework ISIC was demonstrated on proteomics data from a study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Biomarker candidates were identified in a mouse model using ISIC and validated in a study of a human cohort. Conclusions. Expert knowledge can be introduced into a biomarker discovery process in different ways to enhance the robustness of selected marker candidates. Developing strategies for extracting orthogonal and robust features from large data sets increases the chances of success in biomarker identification.

  13. A Semiautomated Framework for Integrating Expert Knowledge into Disease Marker Identification

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Wang, Jing; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Varnum, Susan M.; Brown, Joseph N.; Riensche, Roderick M.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Jacobs, Jon M.; Hoidal, John R.; Scholand, Mary Beth; et al

    2013-01-01

    Background . The availability of large complex data sets generated by high throughput technologies has enabled the recent proliferation of disease biomarker studies. However, a recurring problem in deriving biological information from large data sets is how to best incorporate expert knowledge into the biomarker selection process. Objective . To develop a generalizable framework that can incorporate expert knowledge into data-driven processes in a semiautomated way while providing a metric for optimization in a biomarker selection scheme. Methods . The framework was implemented as a pipeline consisting of five components for the identification of signatures from integrated clustering (ISIC).more »Expert knowledge was integrated into the biomarker identification process using the combination of two distinct approaches; a distance-based clustering approach and an expert knowledge-driven functional selection. Results . The utility of the developed framework ISIC was demonstrated on proteomics data from a study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Biomarker candidates were identified in a mouse model using ISIC and validated in a study of a human cohort. Conclusions . Expert knowledge can be introduced into a biomarker discovery process in different ways to enhance the robustness of selected marker candidates. Developing strategies for extracting orthogonal and robust features from large data sets increases the chances of success in biomarker identification. « less

  14. Development and Validation of Instruments to Measure Learning of Expert-Like Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adams, Wendy K.; Wieman, Carl E.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the process for creating and validating an assessment test that measures the effectiveness of instruction by probing how well that instruction causes students in a class to think like experts about specific areas of science. The design principles and process are laid out and it is shown how these align with professional…

  15. An Expert Vision System for Medical Image Segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shiuh-Yung J.; Lin, Wei-Chung; Chen, Chin-Tu

    1989-05-01

    In this paper, an expert vision system is proposed which integrates knowledge from diverse sources for tomographic image segmentation. The system miinicks the reasoning process of an expert to divide a tomographic brain image into semantically meaningful entities. These entities can then be related to the fundamental biomedical processes, both in health and in disease, that are of interest or of importance to health care research. The images under study include those acquired from x-ray CT (Computed Tomography), MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging), and PET (Positron Emission Tomography). Given a set of three (correlated) images acquired from these three different modalities at the same slicing level and angle of a human brain, the proposed system performs image segmentation based on (1) knowledge about the characteristics of the three different sensors, (2) knowledge about the anatomic structures of human brains, (3) knowledge about brain diseases, and (4) knowledge about image processing and analysis tools. Since the problem domain is characterized by incomplete and uncertain information, the blackboard architecture which is an opportunistic reasoning model is adopted as the framework of the proposed system.

  16. What monitor can replace the cathode-ray tube for visual stimulation to elicit multifocal electroretinograms?

    PubMed

    Matsumoto, Celso Soiti; Shinoda, Kei; Matsumoto, Harue; Seki, Keisuke; Nagasaka, Eiichiro; Iwata, Takeshi; Mizota, Atsushi

    2014-01-01

    To compare a conventional cathode-ray tube (CRT) screen to organic light-emitting diode (OLED) and liquid crystal display (LCD) screens as visual stimulators to elicit multifocal electroretinograms (mfERGs), mfERGs were recorded from seven eyes of seven healthy volunteers (21 ± 2 years). The mfERGs elicited by a conventional CRT screen (S710, Compaq Computer Co.) were compared to those elicited by a studio-grade master OLED monitor (PVM-1741, Sony, Japan) and a conventional LCD (S1721, Flexscan, Eizo Nanao Corp., Japan). The luminance changes of each monitor were measured with a photodiode. CRT, OLED, and LCD screens with a frame frequency of 60 Hz were studied. A hexagonal stimulus array with 61 stimulus elements was created on each monitor. The serial white stimuli of the OLED screen at 60 Hz did not fuse, and that of the LCD screens fused. The amplitudes of P1 and P2 of the first-order kernels of the mfERGs were not significantly different from those elicited by the CRT and OLED screens, and the P1 amplitude of the first-order kernel elicited by the LCD stimuli was significantly smaller than that elicited by the CRT in all the groups of the averaged hexagonal elements. The implicit times were approximately 10 ms longer in almost all components elicited by the LCD screen compared to those elicited by the CRT screen. The mfERGs elicited by monitors other than the CRT should be carefully interpreted, especially those elicited by LCD screens. The OLED had good performance, and we conclude that it can replace the CRT as a stimulator for mfERGs; however, a collection of normative data is recommended. PMID:25096155

  17. "Novices" "Experts" Percent of Test Items Attempted

    E-print Network

    Pylyshyn, Zenon

    ") are animated characters featured on TV shows, video games, books, and trading cards. Each Pokémon character has many character names do they know, and how might they organize relevant information? - Are there child versus novices? - If there are child Pokémon experts, what role do parents play in children's acquisition

  18. Hispania White Paper: Where Are the Experts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    VanPatten, Bill

    2015-01-01

    Most collegiate departments where one can find Spanish, French, German, and other non-English disciplines are referred to as "language departments," either formally or informally. Such designations are interesting as they suggest to the outsider (i.e., non-language person) that these departments consist of experts in language. In this…

  19. A Prototype Expert System for Fishway Design.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bender, Michael J.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Describes the development of a prototype expert system to recommend the most suitable type of fishway for given design conditions. Recommendations are provided on the basis of fishway hydraulics, fish passage performance, and cost requirements. An appendix provides an example consultation. (MDH)

  20. Estrogen receptor expert system overview and examples

    EPA Science Inventory

    The estrogen receptor expert system (ERES) is a rule-based system developed to prioritize chemicals based upon their potential for binding to the ER. The ERES was initially developed to predict ER affinity of chemicals from two specific EPA chemical inventories, antimicrobial pe...

  1. Head and Neck Cancer Program Guest Expert

    E-print Network

    O'Hern, Corey S.

    Head and Neck Cancer Program Guest Expert: Barbara Burtness, MD Professor of Medical Oncology; Clinical Research Program Leader, Head and Neck Cancer Program, Yale Cancer Center Hosts Anees Chagpar MD Research Program Leader for the Head and Neck Cancer Program. Here is Dr. Steven Gore. Gore

  2. Expert system for transuranic waste assay

    SciTech Connect

    Zoolalian, M.L.; Gibbs, A.; Kuhns, J.D.

    1989-01-01

    Transuranic wastes are generated at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a result of routine production of nuclear materials. These wastes contain Pu-238 and Pu-239 and are placed into lined 55-gallon waste drums. The drums are placed on monitored storage pads pending shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. A passive-active neutron (PAN) assay system is used to determine the mass of the radioactive material within the waste drums. Assay results are used to classify the wastes as either low-level or transuranic (TRU). During assays, the PAN assay system communicates with an IBM-AT computer. A Fortran computer program, called NEUT, controls and performs all data analyses. Unassisted, the NEUT program cannot adequately interpret assay results. To eliminate this limitation, an expert system shell was used to write a new algorithm, called the Transuranic Expert System (TRUX), to drive the NEUT program and add decision making capabilities for analysis of the assay results. The TRUX knowledge base was formulated by consulting with human experts in the field of neutron assay, by direct experimentation on the PAN assay system, and by observing operations on a daily basis. TRUX, with its improved ability to interpret assay results, has eliminated the need for close supervision by a human expert, allowing skilled technicians to operate the PAN assay system. 4 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  3. EXPERT SYSTEMS - TOOLS FOR HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is well known that protection of human health and the environment from the risks of hazardous wastes involves evaluation of numerous complex issues. pproximately 4 years ago a few people began to explore the possibility of using expert system techniques to expedite the transfe...

  4. Survey Questions Answered Only by Psychosocial Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Journal on Mental Retardation, 2000

    2000-01-01

    Twelve tables provide a breakdown of answers to a survey responded to by 48 experts in the psychosocial treatment of psychiatric and behavioral problems in people with mental retardation. Questions address treatment of self-injurious or aggressive behavior, specific psychiatric disorders, specific target symptoms, use of applied behavior analysis…

  5. Ethical Issues in Expert Opinions and Testimony.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weed, Roger O.

    2000-01-01

    This article provides an overview of ethical issues in private for-profit practice, with particular focus on expert testimony, using examples from a sample of claims filed with the National Association of Rehabilitation Professionals in the Private Sector and malpractice insurance companies. Complaints most frequently involve issues related to…

  6. EXPERTS AND MACHINES UNITED AGAINST CYBERBULLYING

    E-print Network

    Theune, Mariët

    #12;EXPERTS AND MACHINES UNITED AGAINST CYBERBULLYING Maral Dadvar #12;PhD dissertation committee AND MACHINES UNITED AGAINST CYBERBULLYING DISSERTATION to obtain the degree of doctor at the University as cyberbullying. Cyberbullying can simply be defined as an intentional act that is conducted through digital

  7. Pancreatic Cancer Clinical Trials Guest Expert

    E-print Network

    O'Hern, Corey S.

    Pancreatic Cancer Clinical Trials Guest Expert: Jill Lacy, MD Associate Professor of Medicine, Yale a conversation about pancreatic cancer with Dr. Jill Lacy. Dr. Lacy is Assistant Professor of Medicine at Yale School of Medicine. Here is Dr. Anees Chagpar. Chagpar Jill, let's talk first a little about pancreatic

  8. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a party may file a motion not later than five... witness has testified or sought to testify as an expert at trial or by deposition within the preceding... whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless otherwise ordered by the hearing officer, a...

  9. EXPERT QUALIFICATIONS & TESTIMONY Paul C. Giannelli

    E-print Network

    Shamos, Michael I.

    is a matter for the trial court). B. Appeals. Trial court's decision is reviewable only for an abuse testimony."); Salem v. United States Lines Co., 370 U.S. 31,35 (1962) (Trial judge has "broad discretion, training or education.' Thus within the scope of the rule are not only experts in the strictest sense

  10. Expert Concept Mapping Study on Mobile Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borner, Dirk; Glahn, Christian; Stoyanov, Slavi; Kalz, Marco; Specht, Marcus

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The present paper introduces concept mapping as a structured participative conceptualization approach to identify clusters of ideas and opinions generated by experts within the domain of mobile learning. Utilizing this approach, the paper aims to contribute to a definition of key domain characteristics by identifying the main educational…

  11. Expert Behavior in Children's Video Game Play.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    VanDeventer, Stephanie S.; White, James A.

    2002-01-01

    Investigates the display of expert behavior by seven outstanding video game-playing children ages 10 and 11. Analyzes observation and debriefing transcripts for evidence of self-monitoring, pattern recognition, principled decision making, qualitative thinking, and superior memory, and discusses implications for educators regarding the development…

  12. RUTGERSCAMDEN MEDIA GUIDE: LAW EXPERTS DIRECTORY

    E-print Network

    Garfunkel, Eric

    RUTGERS­CAMDEN MEDIA GUIDE: LAW EXPERTS DIRECTORY #12;INDEX Abortion 3 Administrative Law 3 Animal Religion 25 Same-sex Marriage 25-27 Tort Law 27 United Nations 27 Voter's Rights 28 2 #12;Abortion N, including and Roe v. Wade: The Abortion Rights Controversy in American History (University Press of Kansas

  13. CORNELL MIXING ZONE EXPERT SYSTEM (CORMIX)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cornell mixing zone expert system (CORMIX) can be used for the analysis, prediction, and design of aqueous toxic or conventional pollutant discharges into diverse water bodies. The major emphasis is on the geometry and dilution characteristics of the initial mixing zone -- includ...

  14. Fuzzy Expert System to Characterize Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Hecke, T.

    2011-01-01

    Students wanting to succeed in higher education are required to adopt an adequate learning approach. By analyzing individual learning characteristics, teachers can give personal advice to help students identify their learning success factors. An expert system based on fuzzy logic can provide economically viable solutions to help students identify…

  15. Pediatric Oncology/Bone Marrow Guest Expert

    E-print Network

    O'Hern, Corey S.

    Pediatric Oncology/Bone Marrow Transplant Guest Expert: Debbie Chirnomas, MD Assistant Professor of Pediatrics, Hematology/Oncology; Director, Pediatric Bone Marrow Transplant Program, Yale School of Medicine a conversation about pediatric cancers and bone marrow transplant with Dr. Debbie Chirnomas. Dr. Chirnomas

  16. A Mini-Symposium with Industry Experts

    E-print Network

    Columbia University

    INTERNET OF THINGS A Mini-Symposium with Industry Experts April 1, 2015 DAVIS AUDITORIUM On behalf of the organizers of the Mini-Symposium on the Internet of Things, I have the honor to welcome you of the community from academia, industry and government who have a shared interest in the Internet of Things

  17. The Truth about Sarcomas Guest Expert

    E-print Network

    O'Hern, Corey S.

    The Truth about Sarcomas Guest Expert: Dieter Lindskog, MD Associate Professor of Orthopedics at 888-234-4YCC. This week you will hear a conversation about sarcomas with Dr. Dieter Lindskog. Dr and Clinical Research Program Director for the Sarcoma Program at Yale Cancer Center. Here is Steven Gore. Gore

  18. Tribal Colleges: The Original Extreme Makeover Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powless, Donna

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author states "our experience with education is a prime example in proving we are experts at problem-solving and are the originators of the extreme makeover." Educational institutions were introduced to the Native people in an outrageous manner--often as a mask for assimilating American Indians, routinely resulting…

  19. NICBES2 - NICKEL CADMIUM BATTERY EXPERT SYSTEM-2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Y. B.

    1994-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2 (NICBES2) is a prototype diagnostic expert system for Nickel Cadmium Battery Health Management. NICBES2 is intended to support evaluation of the performance of Hubble Space Telescope spacecraft batteries, and to alert personnel to possible malfunctions. To achieve this, NICBES2 provides a reasoning system supported by appropriate battery domain knowledge. NICBES2 oversees the status of the batteries by evaluating data gathered in orbit packets, and when the status so merits, raises an alarm and provides fault diagnosis as well as advice on the actions to be taken to remedy the particular alarm. In addition to diagnosis and advice, it provides status history of the batteries' health, and a graphical display capability to help in assimilation of the information by the operator. NICBES2 is composed of three cooperating processes driven by a program written in SunOS C. A serial port process gathers incoming data from an RS-232 connection and places it into a raw data pipe. The data handler processes read this information from the raw data pipe and perform statistical data reduction to generate a set of reduced data files per orbit. The expert system process starts the Quintus Prolog interpreter and the expert system and then uses the reduced data files for the generation of status and advice information. The expert system presents the user with an interface window composed of six subwindows: Battery Status, Advice Selection, Support, Battery Selection, Graphics, and Actions. The Battery status subwindow can provide a display of the current status of a battery. Similarly, advice on battery reconditioning, charging, and workload can be obtained from the Advice Selection subwindow. A display of trends for the last orbit and over a sequence of the last twelve orbits is available in the Graph subwindow. A WHY button is available to give the user an explanation of the rules that the expert system used in determining the current information. The Support subwindow contains an editor for altering the knowledge base. NICBES2 is written in C-language and Quintus Prolog for Sun series computers running SunOS. It requires 8Mb of RAM for execution. The Quintus ProWindows graphics system is required for graphical display, and a Postscript printer is required to print graphics. A DEC LSI-11 is required to send telemetry via a RS-232 connection. The program is available on a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. NICBES2 was developed in 1989. Sun and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. PostScript is a registered trademark of Adobe Systems Incorporated. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. DEC LSI-11 is a trademark of Digital Equipment Corporation.

  20. Developing a Biomedical Expert Finding System Using Medical Subject Headings

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Reema; Malhotra, Arjun; Kaur, Manjit

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Efficient identification of subject experts or expert communities is vital for the growth of any organization. Most of the available expert finding systems are based on self-nomination, which can be biased, and are unable to rank experts. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a robust and unbiased expert finding system which can quantitatively measure expertise. Methods Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) is a controlled vocabulary developed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) for indexing research publications, articles and books. Using the MeSH terms associated with peer-reviewed articles published from India and indexed in PubMed, we developed a Web-based program which can be used to identify subject experts and subjects associated with an expert. Results We have extensively tested our system to identify experts from India in various subjects. The system provides a ranked list of experts where known experts rank at the top of the list. The system is general; since it uses information available with the PubMed, it can be implemented for any country. Conclusions The expert finding system is able to successfully identify subject experts in India. Our system is unique because it allows the quantification of subject expertise, thus enabling the ranking of experts. Our system is based on peer-reviewed information. Use of MeSH terms as subjects has standardized the subject terminology. The system matches requirements of an ideal expert finding system. PMID:24523988