Science.gov

Sample records for exponential population growth

  1. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social

  2. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  3. A Stochastic Super-Exponential Growth Model for Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avila, P.; Rekker, A.

    2010-11-01

    A super-exponential growth model with environmental noise has been studied analytically. Super-exponential growth rate is a property of dynamical systems exhibiting endogenous nonlinear positive feedback, i.e., of self-reinforcing systems. Environmental noise acts on the growth rate multiplicatively and is assumed to be Gaussian white noise in the Stratonovich interpretation. An analysis of the stochastic super-exponential growth model with derivations of exact analytical formulae for the conditional probability density and the mean value of the population abundance are presented. Interpretations and various applications of the results are discussed.

  4. Exponential growth in age-structured two-sex populations.

    PubMed

    Martcheva, M

    1999-03-15

    We consider a continuous age-structured two-sex population model which is given by a semilinear system of partial differential equations with nonlocal boundary conditions and is a simpler case of Fredrickson-Hoppensteadt model. The non-linearity is introduced by a source term, called from its physical meaning, the marriage function. The explicit form of the marriage function is not known; however, there is an understanding among the demographers about the properties it should satisfy. We have shown that the homogeneity property of the non-linearity leads to the fact that the system supports exponentially growing persistent solutions using a general form of the marriage function and its properties. This suggests that the model can be viewed as a possible extension of the one-sex stable population theory to monogamously mating two-sex populations. PMID:10194921

  5. A Precalculus Project on Exponential Population Growth and Linear Food Production.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Michael A.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Discusses a precalculus project in which students create a model United Nations to present and discuss the long-term prognosis for individual countries given data on population growth and food production. Students compare exponential and linear functions to determine whether starvation will occur and prepare oral and written presentations of their…

  6. Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and intergenerational resource transfers to wider institutions and social networks. PMID:25141019

  7. Inference of Super-exponential Human Population Growth via Efficient Computation of the Site Frequency Spectrum for Generalized Models

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Feng; Keinan, Alon

    2016-01-01

    The site frequency spectrum (SFS) and other genetic summary statistics are at the heart of many population genetic studies. Previous studies have shown that human populations have undergone a recent epoch of fast growth in effective population size. These studies assumed that growth is exponential, and the ensuing models leave an excess amount of extremely rare variants. This suggests that human populations might have experienced a recent growth with speed faster than exponential. Recent studies have introduced a generalized growth model where the growth speed can be faster or slower than exponential. However, only simulation approaches were available for obtaining summary statistics under such generalized models. In this study, we provide expressions to accurately and efficiently evaluate the SFS and other summary statistics under generalized models, which we further implement in a publicly available software. Investigating the power to infer deviation of growth from being exponential, we observed that adequate sample sizes facilitate accurate inference; e.g., a sample of 3000 individuals with the amount of data expected from exome sequencing allows observing and accurately estimating growth with speed deviating by ≥10% from that of exponential. Applying our inference framework to data from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project, we found that a model with a generalized growth epoch fits the observed SFS significantly better than the equivalent model with exponential growth (P-value =3.85×10−6). The estimated growth speed significantly deviates from exponential (P-value ≪10−12), with the best-fit estimate being of growth speed 12% faster than exponential. PMID:26450922

  8. Inference of Super-exponential Human Population Growth via Efficient Computation of the Site Frequency Spectrum for Generalized Models.

    PubMed

    Gao, Feng; Keinan, Alon

    2016-01-01

    The site frequency spectrum (SFS) and other genetic summary statistics are at the heart of many population genetic studies. Previous studies have shown that human populations have undergone a recent epoch of fast growth in effective population size. These studies assumed that growth is exponential, and the ensuing models leave an excess amount of extremely rare variants. This suggests that human populations might have experienced a recent growth with speed faster than exponential. Recent studies have introduced a generalized growth model where the growth speed can be faster or slower than exponential. However, only simulation approaches were available for obtaining summary statistics under such generalized models. In this study, we provide expressions to accurately and efficiently evaluate the SFS and other summary statistics under generalized models, which we further implement in a publicly available software. Investigating the power to infer deviation of growth from being exponential, we observed that adequate sample sizes facilitate accurate inference; e.g., a sample of 3000 individuals with the amount of data expected from exome sequencing allows observing and accurately estimating growth with speed deviating by ≥10% from that of exponential. Applying our inference framework to data from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project, we found that a model with a generalized growth epoch fits the observed SFS significantly better than the equivalent model with exponential growth (P-value [Formula: see text]). The estimated growth speed significantly deviates from exponential (P-value [Formula: see text]), with the best-fit estimate being of growth speed 12% faster than exponential. PMID:26450922

  9. Can the Site-Frequency Spectrum Distinguish Exponential Population Growth from Multiple-Merger Coalescents?

    PubMed Central

    Eldon, Bjarki; Birkner, Matthias; Blath, Jochen; Freund, Fabian

    2015-01-01

    The ability of the site-frequency spectrum (SFS) to reflect the particularities of gene genealogies exhibiting multiple mergers of ancestral lines as opposed to those obtained in the presence of population growth is our focus. An excess of singletons is a well-known characteristic of both population growth and multiple mergers. Other aspects of the SFS, in particular, the weight of the right tail, are, however, affected in specific ways by the two model classes. Using an approximate likelihood method and minimum-distance statistics, our estimates of statistical power indicate that exponential and algebraic growth can indeed be distinguished from multiple-merger coalescents, even for moderate sample sizes, if the number of segregating sites is high enough. A normalized version of the SFS (nSFS) is also used as a summary statistic in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The results give further positive evidence as to the general eligibility of the SFS to distinguish between the different histories. PMID:25575536

  10. Universality in Stochastic Exponential Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer-Biswas, Srividya; Crooks, Gavin E.; Scherer, Norbert F.; Dinner, Aaron R.

    2014-07-01

    Recent imaging data for single bacterial cells reveal that their mean sizes grow exponentially in time and that their size distributions collapse to a single curve when rescaled by their means. An analogous result holds for the division-time distributions. A model is needed to delineate the minimal requirements for these scaling behaviors. We formulate a microscopic theory of stochastic exponential growth as a Master Equation that accounts for these observations, in contrast to existing quantitative models of stochastic exponential growth (e.g., the Black-Scholes equation or geometric Brownian motion). Our model, the stochastic Hinshelwood cycle (SHC), is an autocatalytic reaction cycle in which each molecular species catalyzes the production of the next. By finding exact analytical solutions to the SHC and the corresponding first passage time problem, we uncover universal signatures of fluctuations in exponential growth and division. The model makes minimal assumptions, and we describe how more complex reaction networks can reduce to such a cycle. We thus expect similar scalings to be discovered in stochastic processes resulting in exponential growth that appear in diverse contexts such as cosmology, finance, technology, and population growth.

  11. A Simulation To Model Exponential Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Appelbaum, Elizabeth Berman

    2000-01-01

    Describes a simulation using dice-tossing students in a population cluster to model the growth of cancer cells. This growth is recorded in a scatterplot and compared to an exponential function graph. (KHR)

  12. How well can the exponential-growth coalescent approximate constant-rate birth–death population dynamics?

    PubMed Central

    Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G.; Gavryushkin, Alex; Guindon, Stephane; Kühnert, Denise; Leventhal, Gabriel E.; Drummond, Alexei J.

    2015-01-01

    One of the central objectives in the field of phylodynamics is the quantification of population dynamic processes using genetic sequence data or in some cases phenotypic data. Phylodynamics has been successfully applied to many different processes, such as the spread of infectious diseases, within-host evolution of a pathogen, macroevolution and even language evolution. Phylodynamic analysis requires a probability distribution on phylogenetic trees spanned by the genetic data. Because such a probability distribution is not available for many common stochastic population dynamic processes, coalescent-based approximations assuming deterministic population size changes are widely employed. Key to many population dynamic models, in particular epidemiological models, is a period of exponential population growth during the initial phase. Here, we show that the coalescent does not well approximate stochastic exponential population growth, which is typically modelled by a birth–death process. We demonstrate that introducing demographic stochasticity into the population size function of the coalescent improves the approximation for values of R0 close to 1, but substantial differences remain for large R0. In addition, the computational advantage of using an approximation over exact models vanishes when introducing such demographic stochasticity. These results highlight that we need to increase efforts to develop phylodynamic tools that correctly account for the stochasticity of population dynamic models for inference. PMID:25876846

  13. How well can the exponential-growth coalescent approximate constant-rate birth-death population dynamics?

    PubMed

    Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G; Gavryushkin, Alex; Guindon, Stephane; Kühnert, Denise; Leventhal, Gabriel E; Drummond, Alexei J

    2015-05-01

    One of the central objectives in the field of phylodynamics is the quantification of population dynamic processes using genetic sequence data or in some cases phenotypic data. Phylodynamics has been successfully applied to many different processes, such as the spread of infectious diseases, within-host evolution of a pathogen, macroevolution and even language evolution. Phylodynamic analysis requires a probability distribution on phylogenetic trees spanned by the genetic data. Because such a probability distribution is not available for many common stochastic population dynamic processes, coalescent-based approximations assuming deterministic population size changes are widely employed. Key to many population dynamic models, in particular epidemiological models, is a period of exponential population growth during the initial phase. Here, we show that the coalescent does not well approximate stochastic exponential population growth, which is typically modelled by a birth-death process. We demonstrate that introducing demographic stochasticity into the population size function of the coalescent improves the approximation for values of R0 close to 1, but substantial differences remain for large R0. In addition, the computational advantage of using an approximation over exact models vanishes when introducing such demographic stochasticity. These results highlight that we need to increase efforts to develop phylodynamic tools that correctly account for the stochasticity of population dynamic models for inference. PMID:25876846

  14. Simulating Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  15. A Simple Mechanical Experiment on Exponential Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrew, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    With a rod, cord, pulleys, and slotted masses, students can observe and graph exponential growth in the cord tension over a factor of increase as large as several hundred. This experiment is adaptable for use either in algebra-based or calculus-based physics courses, fitting naturally with the study of sliding friction. Significant parts of the…

  16. A Simple Mechanical Experiment on Exponential Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrew, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    With a rod, cord, pulleys, and slotted masses, students can observe and graph exponential growth in the cord tension over a factor of increase as large as several hundred. This experiment is adaptable for use either in algebra-based or calculus-based physics courses, fitting naturally with the study of sliding friction. Significant parts of the

  17. Black Hole Instabilities and Exponential Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prabhu, Kartik; Wald, Robert M.

    2015-11-01

    Recently, a general analysis has been given of the stability with respect to axisymmetric perturbations of stationary-axisymmetric black holes and black branes in vacuum general relativity in arbitrary dimensions. It was shown that positivity of canonical energy on an appropriate space of perturbations is necessary and sufficient for stability. However, the notions of both "stability" and "instability" in this result are significantly weaker than one would like to obtain. In particular, if there exists a perturbation with negative canonical energy, "instability" has been shown to occur only in the sense that this perturbation cannot asymptotically approach a stationary perturbation at late times. In this paper, we prove that if a perturbation of the form —with a solution to the linearized Einstein equation—has negative canonical energy, then that perturbation must, in fact, grow exponentially in time. The key idea is to make use of the t- or ( t-ϕ)-reflection isometry, i, of the background spacetime and decompose the initial data for perturbations into their odd and even parts under i. We then write the canonical energy as , where and , respectively, denote the canonical energy of the odd part ("kinetic energy") and even part ("potential energy"). One of the main results of this paper is the proof that is positive definite for any black hole background. We use to construct a Hilbert space on which time evolution is given in terms of a self-adjoint operator , whose spectrum includes negative values if and only if fails to be positive. Negative spectrum of implies exponential growth of the perturbations in that have nontrivial projection into the negative spectral subspace. This includes all perturbations of the form with negative canonical energy. A "Rayleigh-Ritz" type of variational principle is derived, which can be used to obtain lower bounds on the rate of exponential growth.

  18. Exponential growth and atmospheric carbon dioxide

    SciTech Connect

    Laurmann, J.A.; Rotty, R.M.

    1983-02-20

    The adequacy of assumptions required to project atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations in time frames of practical importance is reviewed. Relevant issues concern the form assumed for future fossil fuel release, carbon cycle approximations, and the implications of revisions in fossil fuel patterns required to maintain atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels below a chosen threshold. In general, we find that with a judiciously selected exponential fossil fuel release rate, and with a constant airborn fraction, we can estimate atmospheric CO/sub 2/ growth over the next 50 years based on essentially surprise free scenarios. Resource depletion effects must be included for projections beyond about 50 years, and on this time frame the constant airborne fraction approximation has to be questioned as well (especially in later years when the fossil fuel use begins to taper off). For projections for over 100 years, both energy demand scenarios and currently available carbon cycle models have sufficient uncertainties that atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels derived from them are not much better than guesses.

  19. Mutant number distribution in an exponentially growing population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Peter; Antal, Tibor

    2015-01-01

    We present an explicit solution to a classic model of cell-population growth introduced by Luria and Delbrück (1943 Genetics 28 491-511) 70 years ago to study the emergence of mutations in bacterial populations. In this model a wild-type population is assumed to grow exponentially in a deterministic fashion. Proportional to the wild-type population size, mutants arrive randomly and initiate new sub-populations of mutants that grow stochastically according to a supercritical birth and death process. We give an exact expression for the generating function of the total number of mutants at a given wild-type population size. We present a simple expression for the probability of finding no mutants, and a recursion formula for the probability of finding a given number of mutants. In the ‘large population-small mutation’ limit we recover recent results of Kessler and Levine (2014 J. Stat. Phys. doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1143-3) for a fully stochastic version of the process.

  20. Population growth and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize the exponential growth of population as the source of several complications for economic growth and human welfare. Stabilization of population by reducing fertility is conducive for improving the quality of population and also advances the longterm management of the population growth and work force utilization. The perspective of longterm economic management involves populatio n planning, control of environmental pollution, conservation of scarce resources, exploration of resources, realization of technological possibilities in agriculture and industry and in farm and factory, and achievement of economic growth and its equitable distribution. PMID:12314595

  1. Exponential increases of RNA virus fitness during large population transmissions.

    PubMed Central

    Novella, I S; Duarte, E A; Elena, S F; Moya, A; Domingo, E; Holland, J J

    1995-01-01

    The great adaptability shown by RNA viruses is a consequence of their high mutation rates. Here we investigate the kinetics of virus fitness gains during repeated transfers of large virus populations in cell culture. Results always show that fitness increases exponentially. Low fitness clones exhibit regular increases observed as biphasic periods of exponential evolutionary improvement, while neutral clones show monophasic kinetics. These results are significant for RNA virus epidemiology, optimal handling of attenuated live virus vaccines, and routine laboratory procedures. PMID:7597039

  2. Is Gompertzian or exponential kinetics a valid description of individual human cancer growth?

    PubMed

    Retsky, M W; Swartzendruber, D E; Wardwell, R H; Bame, P D

    1990-10-01

    It is generally accepted that human cancers grow in an exponential or Gompertzian manner. This assumption is based on analysis of the growth of transplantable animal tumors and on averages of tumor growth in human populations. A computer model of breast cancer in individual patients has raised some doubts about this assumption. The computer model predicts an irregular pattern of tumor growth that incorporates plateaus or dormant periods separated by Gompertzian growth spurts. Since growth patterns involving plateaus are not predicted by conventionally accepted exponential or Gompertzian kinetics, sufficient documentation of their existence may be regarded as some evidence that the computer model is correct. The literature has been surveyed to identify growth patterns specifically predicted by the model. The literature contains clinical evidence from individual patients of this growth pattern in primary breast, large intestine and rectum, and pulmonary cancers and metastatic pulmonary cancer. Much data, including the only breast data, are not consistent with exponential or Gompertzian kinetics but are explainable by irregular growth kinetics. Exponential growth is valid for some tumors and for short times, but there are many papers citing significant deviations from that growth. Exponential growth may accurately describe averages of human tumor growth and growth of multipassaged experimental tumors, but it is not valid for all individual tumors. PMID:2259298

  3. Exponential order statistic models of software reliability growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, D. R.

    1985-01-01

    Failure times of a software reliabilty growth process are modeled as order statistics of independent, nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. The Jelinsky-Moranda, Goel-Okumoto, Littlewood, Musa-Okumoto Logarithmic, and Power Law models are all special cases of Exponential Order Statistic Models, but there are many additional examples also. Various characterizations, properties and examples of this class of models are developed and presented.

  4. Stability of Parameter Estimates in the Split Population Exponential Distribution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miley, Alan D.

    1978-01-01

    The split-population exponential design suggested by Maltz and McCleary to predict parolee recidivism (TM 502 998) was applied to discharged psychiatric inpatients. Parameter estimates changed systematically as greater and greater observation time was allowed in the computation, thus limiting extrapolability. (Author/GDC)

  5. Teaching Exponential Growth and Decay: Examples from Medicine

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobbie, Russell K.

    1973-01-01

    A treatment of exponential growth and decay is sketched which does not require knowledge of calculus, and hence, it can be applied to many cases in the biological and medical sciences. Some examples are bacterial growth, sterilization, clearance, and drug absorption. (DF)

  6. Exponential energy growth in adiabatically changing Hamiltonian systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Tiago; Turaev, Dmitry

    2015-01-01

    We show that the mixed phase space dynamics of a typical smooth Hamiltonian system universally leads to a sustained exponential growth of energy at a slow periodic variation of parameters. We build a model for this process in terms of geometric Brownian motion with a positive drift, and relate it to the steady entropy increase after each period of the parameters variation.

  7. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  8. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,

  9. Iterative exponential growth of stereo- and sequence-controlled polymers.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Jonathan C; Ehrlich, Deborah J C; Gao, Angela X; Leibfarth, Frank A; Jiang, Yivan; Zhou, Erica; Jamison, Timothy F; Johnson, Jeremiah A

    2015-10-01

    Chemists have long sought sequence-controlled synthetic polymers that mimic nature's biopolymers, but a practical synthetic route that enables absolute control over polymer sequence and structure remains a key challenge. Here, we report an iterative exponential growth plus side-chain functionalization (IEG+) strategy that begins with enantiopure epoxides and facilitates the efficient synthesis of a family of uniform >3 kDa macromolecules of varying sequence and stereoconfiguration that are coupled to produce unimolecular polymers (>6 kDa) with sequences and structures that cannot be obtained using traditional polymerization techniques. Selective side-chain deprotection of three hexadecamers is also demonstrated, which imbues each compound with the ability to dissolve in water. We anticipate that these new macromolecules and the general IEG+ strategy will find broad application as a versatile platform for the scalable synthesis of sequence-controlled polymers. PMID:26391080

  10. Iterative exponential growth of stereo- and sequence-controlled polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, Jonathan C.; Ehrlich, Deborah J. C.; Gao, Angela X.; Leibfarth, Frank A.; Jiang, Yivan; Zhou, Erica; Jamison, Timothy F.; Johnson, Jeremiah A.

    2015-10-01

    Chemists have long sought sequence-controlled synthetic polymers that mimic nature's biopolymers, but a practical synthetic route that enables absolute control over polymer sequence and structure remains a key challenge. Here, we report an iterative exponential growth plus side-chain functionalization (IEG+) strategy that begins with enantiopure epoxides and facilitates the efficient synthesis of a family of uniform >3 kDa macromolecules of varying sequence and stereoconfiguration that are coupled to produce unimolecular polymers (>6 kDa) with sequences and structures that cannot be obtained using traditional polymerization techniques. Selective side-chain deprotection of three hexadecamers is also demonstrated, which imbues each compound with the ability to dissolve in water. We anticipate that these new macromolecules and the general IEG+ strategy will find broad application as a versatile platform for the scalable synthesis of sequence-controlled polymers.

  11. [Population Growth and Development].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clausen, A. W.

    Rapid population growth as a central development problem, the proper domain of government in reducing population growth, and effective measures which can be taken to reduce fertility are examined. Rapid population growth puts a brake on development because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption now and the investment needed…

  12. Bioassays with unicellular algae: deviations from exponential growth and its implications for toxicity test results.

    PubMed

    Altenburger, Rolf; Schmitt-Jansen, Mechthild; Riedl, Janet

    2008-01-01

    Growth assays with unicellular green algae are an established tool in ecotoxicological effect assessment for chemicals and environmental samples. From an ecological perspective it seems appropriate to use the growth rate as a process variable rather than a measure of biomass gain for calculating inhibitory effects of contaminants. The notion of simple exponential growth for the description of the population increase in undisturbed suspension cultures of unicellular green algae, however, seems to be an oversimplification. Experimental findings describe the increase in biomass, cell number, the development of cell volume distributions of populations, and the relationship between cell size and chlorophyll content for individual cells over one generation at a time resolution of 2-h intervals. It was observed that algal populations of Desmodesmus subspicatus show a time pattern of cell size growth; the average cell volume increases about sixfold, without corresponding increase in population size. This is followed by a distinct cell division phase with little gain in biomass. This synchronous growth behavior despite continuous illumination may be explained by the multiple fission characteristic of unicellular green algae which is an adaptation to cyclic light-dark changes in the environment. It might be controlled by an independent cell cycle clock. For routine regulatory testing fluorescence-based measurements rather than cell counting minimizes the confounding effect on toxicity determination. For investigations of time-dependent effects, e.g., by pulsed exposure, an alternative mechanistically based growth function for unicellular algae is proposed that accommodates for the observed growth pattern. PMID:18178874

  13. Exponential growth of dental schools in Chile: effects on academic, economic and workforce issues.

    PubMed

    Cartes-Velsquez, Ricardo Andrs

    2013-01-01

    In the last 30 years, Chile has undergone noteworthy economic development and an exponential growth in the access of its population to higher education. The aim of this paper was to review the changes in academic, economic and workforce issues that occurred as a consequence of the growth in supply of undergraduate dental vacancies between 1997 and 2011. Data collected from the Consejo de Educacin Superior - CES, Comisin Nacional de Acreditacin - CNA, and Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas de Chile - INE included these variables: number of dental schools, school type (private or traditional, see explanation below), city where the school is located, entry vacancies, total student enrollment, admission scores, percentile rank of dentistry as a university career, tuition fees, accreditation status, and number of inhabitants. There was an exponential increase in dental schools in Chile (5 to 34) that occurred in association with the rise in tuition fees (US$ 3900 to US$ 9800), a deterioration in the academic level of dental students (650 to 550 points in admission scores) and a predicted 77.5% oversupply of dentists by 2025, according to WHO criteria. The exponential increase in dental schools in Chile brought about negative consequences, such as increasing career costs, deterioration in the academic level of dental students, and an oversupply of dentists, associated with lower incomes and possibly leading to unemployment. Additional research should be conducted to determine whether an increase in the number of dentists can improve the population's access to dental care and reduce the oral disease burden. PMID:24346044

  14. Exponential growth of codimensions of identities of algebras with unity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaicev, M. V.; Repovš, D.

    2015-10-01

    The asymptotic behaviour is studied of exponentially bounded sequences of codimensions of identities of algebras with unity. A series of algebras is constructed for which the base of the exponential increases by exactly 1 when an outer unity is adjoined to the original algebra. It is shown that the PI-exponents of unital algebras can take any value greater than 2, and the exponents of finite-dimensional unital algebras form a dense subset in the domain \\lbrack 2,∞). Bibliography: 34 titles.

  15. Teaching about Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otero, George G., Jr., Comp.

    This teaching guide contains 20 activities on population growth for students in grades 6-12. The purpose is to help students gain the skills, knowledge, and understanding of population dynamics so that they can make rational decisions and take responsible action regarding population matters and public policy. Activities are organized around the…

  16. Exponential growth of publications on carbon nanodots by Chinese authors

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Junqing; Choi, Hak Soo

    2015-01-01

    Publication statistics was retrieved on carbon nanodots (C-dots) from 2004 up till 2014 using the web of ScienceTM search engine. The number of publications from Chinese authors increased exponentially during this period. Till 2014 China mainland authors contributed 47% of the total publications. Publications on pharmacology and toxicology lagged far behind the publications on chemistry and material science, indicating that research is not solidly moving toward the direction of application. PMID:26380753

  17. The role of multiple modeling perspectives in students' learning of exponential growth.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Garsow, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    The exponential is among the most important family functions in mathematics; the foundation for the solution of linear differential equations, linear difference equations, and stochastic processes. However there is little research and superficial agreement on how the concepts of exponential growth are learned and/or should be taught initially. In order to investigate these issues, I preformed a teaching experiment with two high school students, which focused on building understandings of exponential growth leading up to the (nonlinear) logistic differential equation model. In this paper, I highlight some of the ways of thinking used by participants in this teaching experiment. From these results I discuss how mathematicians using exponential growth routinely make use of multiple--sometimes contradictory--ways of thinking, as well as the danger that these multiple ways of thinking are not being made distinct to students. PMID:24245624

  18. Global population growth.

    PubMed

    Langmore, J

    1992-07-01

    The global population passed 5 billion in 1987. In the year 2000 the world's population will be more than 6 billion, increasing by 90-100 million each year. About 95% of future demographic growth will take place in developing countries. The number of school age children is projected to increase from 940 million in 1980 to 1280 million by the year 2000. Under current labor force growth projections in developing countries, around 1.6 billion new jobs will have to be created between 1980 and 2025, with nearly 1 billion of them in Asia. Population often increases at a more rapid rate than agricultural growth. Food production per capita has declined in 70 developing countries. Much of the projected population increase will take place in environmentally fragile regions of the developing world. Population pressures contribute to deforestation, desertification, and scarcity of clean water. The United Nations Population Fund has estimated that in Asia over 43% of women not using family planning would like to postpone, space, or limit their childbearing. Over half of the world's couples of reproductive age are now using contraception. Family planning to postpone the first birth and to eliminate late child bearing would reduce both child loss and maternal illness and death. Both infant and maternal mortality are greater with higher order births. Reducing average family size is an effective way of reducing infant and maternal mortality. The World Bank has given high priority to population assistance, with large programs in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Population assistance provided by the Australian International Development Assistance Bureau totaled about $4.5 million during 1989-90 and is expected to be about $8 million during 1991-92. Australia should increase the proportion of its development assistance budget devoted to population, and family planning programs should increase to around $26 million in line with other major donors. PMID:12179437

  19. Slow Crack Growth of Brittle Materials With Exponential Crack-Velocity Formulation. Part 1; Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Extensive slow-crack-growth (SCG) analysis was made using a primary exponential crack-velocity formulation under three widely used load configurations: constant stress rate, constant stress, and cyclic stress. Although the use of the exponential formulation in determining SCG parameters of a material requires somewhat inconvenient numerical procedures, the resulting solutions presented gave almost the same degree of simplicity in both data analysis and experiments as did the power-law formulation. However, the fact that the inert strength of a material should be known in advance to determine the corresponding SCG parameters was a major drawback of the exponential formulation as compared with the power-law formulation.

  20. Reduced Heme Levels Underlie the Exponential Growth Defect of the Shewanella oneidensis hfq Mutant

    PubMed Central

    Mezoian, Taylor; Hunt, Taylor M.; Keane, Meaghan L.; Leonard, Jessica N.; Scola, Shelby E.; Beer, Emma N.; Perdue, Sarah; Pellock, Brett J.

    2014-01-01

    The RNA chaperone Hfq fulfills important roles in small regulatory RNA (sRNA) function in many bacteria. Loss of Hfq in the dissimilatory metal reducing bacterium Shewanella oneidensis strain MR-1 results in slow exponential phase growth and a reduced terminal cell density at stationary phase. We have found that the exponential phase growth defect of the hfq mutant in LB is the result of reduced heme levels. Both heme levels and exponential phase growth of the hfq mutant can be completely restored by supplementing LB medium with 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA), the first committed intermediate synthesized during heme synthesis. Increasing expression of gtrA, which encodes the enzyme that catalyzes the first step in heme biosynthesis, also restores heme levels and exponential phase growth of the hfq mutant. Taken together, our data indicate that reduced heme levels are responsible for the exponential growth defect of the S. oneidensis hfq mutant in LB medium and suggest that the S. oneidensis hfq mutant is deficient in heme production at the 5-ALA synthesis step. PMID:25356668

  1. Line transect estimation of population size: the exponential case with grouped data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Crain, B.R.

    1979-01-01

    Gates, Marshall, and Olson (1968) investigated the line transect method of estimating grouse population densities in the case where sighting probabilities are exponential. This work is followed by a simulation study in Gates (1969). A general overview of line transect analysis is presented by Burnham and Anderson (1976). These articles all deal with the ungrouped data case. In the present article, an analysis of line transect data is formulated under the Gates framework of exponential sighting probabilities and in the context of grouped data.

  2. Rapid growth of seed black holes in the early universe by supra-exponential accretion.

    PubMed

    Alexander, Tal; Natarajan, Priyamvada

    2014-09-12

    Mass accretion by black holes (BHs) is typically capped at the Eddington rate, when radiation's push balances gravity's pull. However, even exponential growth at the Eddington-limited e-folding time t(E) ~ few × 0.01 billion years is too slow to grow stellar-mass BH seeds into the supermassive luminous quasars that are observed when the universe is 1 billion years old. We propose a dynamical mechanism that can trigger supra-exponential accretion in the early universe, when a BH seed is bound in a star cluster fed by the ubiquitous dense cold gas flows. The high gas opacity traps the accretion radiation, while the low-mass BH's random motions suppress the formation of a slowly draining accretion disk. Supra-exponential growth can thus explain the puzzling emergence of supermassive BHs that power luminous quasars so soon after the Big Bang. PMID:25103410

  3. Z-type control of populations for Lotka-Volterra model with exponential convergence.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yunong; Yan, Xiaogang; Liao, Bolin; Zhang, Yinyan; Ding, Yaqiong

    2016-02-01

    The population control of the Lotka-Volterra model is one of the most important and widely investigated issues in mathematical ecology. In this study, assuming that birth rate is controllable and using the Z-type dynamic method, we develop Z-type control laws to drive the prey population and/or predator population to a desired state to keep species away from extinction and to improve ecosystem stability. A direct controller group is initially designed to control the prey and predator populations simultaneously. Two indirect controllers are then proposed for prey population control and predator population control by exerting exogenous measure on another species. All three control laws possess exponential convergence performances. Finally, the corresponding numerical simulations are performed. Results substantiate the theoretical analysis and effectiveness of such Z-type control laws for the population control of the Lotka-Volterra model. PMID:26644036

  4. Population Growth in Planaria Dugesia tigrina (Gerard)

    PubMed Central

    Davison, John

    1973-01-01

    Planaria reproduce by transverse fission. Isolated worms increase in number exponentially, while social animals at the same density are inhibited in terms of numerical increase, but over a 25 day period undergo a larger increase in mass. Isolated posterior fission products reproduce faster than isolated anterior fission products. Regulation of population growth is independent of density over a 16-fold range and regulatory factors cannot be demonstrated in the medium. Regulation of population growth depends on direct contact between animals. Fission period varies from individual to individual and from period to period for a given individual. Doubling time is related to the absolute number of individuals comprising the population as follows: PN = (PM · N)/(K + N), where PN is the doubling period of a population of N individuals, PM is the doubling time of an infinitely large population, N is the number of individuals in the population, and K is the number of individuals in a population the period of which is one-half PM. At 22°–24°C PM is estimated to be 43.3 days and K is 1.87 individuals. A model system assumes that inhibitor flows through the population from animal to animal from the slowest to the fastest animal in the population thus acting to synchronize population increase as well as to determine the rate of population growth. A possible source of the inhibitor is discussed. PMID:4708406

  5. Implicit and Explicit Knowledge of Linear and Exponential Growth in 5- and 9-Year-Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ebersbach, Mirjam; Resing, Wilma C. M.

    2008-01-01

    The present study examined children's implicit and explicit knowledge of linear and non-linear processes. Five- and nine-year-olds (N = 60) were asked to forecast linear and exponential growth by providing the corresponding number of beads. Implicit knowledge was assessed via the magnitudes of the forecasts; explicit knowledge was investigated…

  6. Exponential Growth and the Shifting Global Center of Gravity of Science Production, 1900-2011

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Liang; Powell, Justin J. W.; Baker, David P.

    2015-01-01

    Long historical trends in scientific discovery led mid-20th century scientometricians to mark the advent of "big science"--extensive science production--and predicted that over the next few decades, the exponential growth would slow, resulting in lower rates of increase in production at the upper limit of a logistic curve. They were…

  7. Exponential Growth and the Shifting Global Center of Gravity of Science Production, 1900-2011

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Liang; Powell, Justin J. W.; Baker, David P.

    2015-01-01

    Long historical trends in scientific discovery led mid-20th century scientometricians to mark the advent of "big science"--extensive science production--and predicted that over the next few decades, the exponential growth would slow, resulting in lower rates of increase in production at the upper limit of a logistic curve. They were

  8. The Western Africa Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Exhibits Both Global Exponential and Local Polynomial Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    Background: While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. Methods: We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. Results: We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. Conclusions: The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks. PMID:25685633

  9. Noise-driven unlimited population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Sasorov, Pavel V.

    2008-12-01

    Demographic noise causes unlimited population growth in a broad class of models which, without noise, would predict a stable finite population. We study this effect on the example of a stochastic birth-death model which includes immigration, binary reproduction, and death. The unlimited population growth proceeds as an exponentially slow decay of a metastable probability distribution (MPD) of the population. We develop a systematic WKB theory, complemented by the van Kampen system size expansion, for the MPD and for the decay time. Important signatures of the MPD are a power-law tail (such that all the distribution moments, except the zeroth one, diverge) and the presence in the solution of two different WKB modes.

  10. A one dimensional model of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano L.; Ribeiro, Kayo N.

    2015-09-01

    In this work, a one dimensional population growth model is proposed. The model, based on the cooperative and competitive individual-individual distance-dependent interaction, allows us to get a full analytical solution. With this analytical approach, it was possible to investigate the dynamics of the population according to some parameters, as intrinsic growth rate, strength of the interaction between individuals, and the distance-dependent interaction. As a consequence of the individuals' interaction, a rich phase diagram to which the population has access was observed. The phases observed are: convergence to carrying capacity, exponential growth, divergence at finite time, and extinction. Moreover, it was also observed that some phases are strictly dependent on the initial condition. For instance, in the cooperative regime with negative intrinsic growth rate, the population can diverge or become extinct according to the initial population size. The phases accessible to the population can be seen as a macroscopic behavior which emerges from the interaction among the individuals (the microscopic level).

  11. Improved exponential product cum dual to product type estimator of population mean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, B. K.; Choudhury, Sanjib; Kumar, Abhishek

    2013-09-01

    In the present paper, an efficient exponential product cum dual to product type estimator has been proposed to estimate the population mean of the study variable by using simple random sampling scheme. The bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator have been obtained up to the first order of approximation. A comparison has been made with existing similar estimators. The estimator has shown its efficiency over other estimators in terms of mean squared error (MSE). The numerical demonstrations have been made to show the gain in the estimator under study.

  12. Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-Exponential Growth

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Wanfeng; van Tuyll van Serooskerken, Edgar

    2015-01-01

    Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and are normally followed by a trend reversal that corrects the previous overreaction. In this paper, we construct an indicator to measure the magnitude of the super-exponential growth of stock prices, by measuring the degree of the price network, generated from the price time series. Twelve major international stock indices have been investigated. Error diagram tests show that this new indicator has strong predictive power for financial extremes, both peaks and troughs. By varying the parameters used to construct the error diagram, we show the predictive power is very robust. The new indicator has a better performance than the LPPL pattern recognition indicator. PMID:26339793

  13. Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-Exponential Growth.

    PubMed

    Yan, Wanfeng; van Tuyll van Serooskerken, Edgar

    2015-01-01

    Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and are normally followed by a trend reversal that corrects the previous overreaction. In this paper, we construct an indicator to measure the magnitude of the super-exponential growth of stock prices, by measuring the degree of the price network, generated from the price time series. Twelve major international stock indices have been investigated. Error diagram tests show that this new indicator has strong predictive power for financial extremes, both peaks and troughs. By varying the parameters used to construct the error diagram, we show the predictive power is very robust. The new indicator has a better performance than the LPPL pattern recognition indicator. PMID:26339793

  14. Power Law Versus Exponential Form of Slow Crack Growth of Advanced Structural Ceramics: Dynamic Fatigue

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    The life prediction analysis based on an exponential crack velocity formulation was examined using a variety of experimental data on glass and advanced structural ceramics in constant stress-rate ("dynamic fatigue") and preload testing at ambient and elevated temperatures. The data fit to the strength versus In (stress rate) relation was found to be very reasonable for most of the materials. It was also found that preloading technique was equally applicable for the case of slow crack growth (SCG) parameter n > 30. The major limitation in the exponential crack velocity formulation, however, was that an inert strength of a material must be known priori to evaluate the important SCG parameter n, a significant drawback as compared to the conventional power-law crack velocity formulation.

  15. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more years. Population density was 85 persons per sq. km and 300 persons per sq. km on arable land in the Southern Region. 26% of land area could be cultivated to accommodate future population growth; most of this land would be in the Southern Region with higher population density. Delicate marginal lands had been cultivated with resultant mineral leaching, hard panning, and soil erosion. Shifting cultivation patterns have been replaced due to population pressure. Small landholders produced 80% of agricultural products in the past, but landlessness and commercial farming are growing concerns. PMID:12288851

  16. Population Growth: Crisis and Challenge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beaton, John R., Ed.; Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.

    The proceedings of this first annual symposium on population growth considers the consequences of this growth, along with possible means of regulation. Topics of speeches include: Population Outlook in Asia (Irene Taeuber); Malnutrition is a Problem of Ecology (Paul Gyorgy); The Leisure Explosion (E. H. Storey); Effects of Pollution on Population…

  17. U.S. Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dillner, Harry

    This autoinstructional lesson deals with the study of man and his environment. No previous experience or learning in this field is required. Emphasis is placed on analysis of population growth and the impact population growth and trends have on natural resource depletion. The behavioral objectives (five) are listed. The study guide for the…

  18. Observation of Self-Amplified Spontaneous Emission and Exponential Growth at 530 nm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milton, S. V.; Gluskin, E.; Biedron, S. G.; Dejus, R. J.; den Hartog, P. K.; Galayda, J. N.; Kim, K.-J.; Lewellen, J. W.; Moog, E. R.; Sajaev, V.; Sereno, N. S.; Travish, G.; Vinokurov, N. A.; Arnold, N. D.; Benson, C.; Berg, W.; Biggs, J. A.; Borland, M.; Carwardine, J. A.; Chae, Y.-C.; Decker, G.; Deriy, B. N.; Erdmann, M. J.; Friedsam, H.; Gold, C.; Grelick, A. E.; Hahne, M. W.; Harkay, K. C.; Huang, Z.; Lessner, E. S.; Lill, R. M.; Lumpkin, A. H.; Makarov, O. A.; Markovich, G. M.; Meyer, D.; Nassiri, A.; Noonan, J. R.; Pasky, S. J.; Pile, G.; Smith, T. L.; Soliday, R.; Tieman, B. J.; Trakhtenberg, E. M.; Trento, G. F.; Vasserman, I. B.; Walters, D. R.; Wang, X. J.; Wiemerslage, G.; Xu, S.; Yang, B.-X.

    2000-07-01

    Experimental evidence for self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) at 530 nm is reported. The measurements were made at the low-energy undulator test line facility at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory. The experimental setup and details of the experimental results are presented, as well as preliminary analysis. This experiment extends to shorter wavelengths the operational knowledge of a linac-based SASE free-electron laser and explicitly shows the predicted exponential growth in intensity of the optical pulse as a function of length along the undulator.

  19. Population growth and economic development.

    PubMed

    Preston, S H; Donaldson, P

    1986-06-01

    17 background papers by experts in the field were commissioned to help assemble the relevant literature and to draw out important points for discussion. Based on these papers, a workshop and independent research, an attempt is made to answer what appear to be the major questions in the field. 8 major relationships that link demographic patterns and economic processes are discussed in detail. In each case, it is assumed that a country is able to achieve lower fertility level by means of a government-sponsred program, and the question, what difference would lower fertility make, is asked. The major relationships identified are: 1) slower population growth, increased growth rate of per capita income, and increase in per capita availability of exhaustible resources; 2) slower population growth, increased growth rate of per capita income and increase of per capita availability of renewable resources; 3) alleviation of pollution and degradation of the natural environment and slower population growth; 4) slower population growth, more capital per worker and increase of worker output and consumption; 5) lower population densities, per capita income and stimulus to technological innovation; 6) slower population growth and the degree of inequality in income distribution; and 8) slower population growth, the absorption of workers into the modern economic sector and problems of urban growth. The cumulation of evidence cited suggests that conventional indicators of economic progress, e.g., per capita income, or % living in poverty, will usually improve faster when population growth slows. Voluntary family planning programs that enable couples to better achieve their reproductive targets appear to be a promising vehicle for socal and economic development. PMID:12340773

  20. Modulation of Chemical Composition and Other Parameters of the Cell at Different Exponential Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Bremer, Hans; Dennis, Patrick P

    2008-09-01

    This review begins by briefly presenting the history of research on the chemical composition and other parameters of cells of E. coli and S. enterica at different exponential growth rates. Studies have allowed us to determine the in vivo strength of promoters and have allowed us to distinguish between factor-dependent transcriptional control of the promoter and changes in promoter activity due to changes in the concentration of free functional RNA polymerase associated with different growth conditions. The total, or bulk, amounts of RNA and protein are linked to the growth rate, because most bacterial RNA is ribosomal RNA (rRNA). Since ribosomes are required for protein synthesis, their number and their rate of function determine the rate of protein synthesis and cytoplasmic mass accumulation. Many mRNAs made in the presence of amino acids have strong ribosome binding sites whose presence reduces the expression of all other active genes. This implies that there can be profound differences in the spectrum of gene activities in cultures grown in different media that produce the same growth rate. Five classes of growth-related parameters that are generally useful in describing or establishing the macromolecular composition of bacterial cultures are described in detail in this review. A number of equations have been reported that describe the macromolecular composition of an average cell in an exponential culture as a function of the culture doubling time and five additional parameters: the C- and D-periods, protein per origin (PO), ribosome activity, and peptide chain elongation rate. PMID:26443740

  1. An integrated model for predictive microbiology and simultaneous determination of lag phase duration and exponential growth rate

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A new mechanistic growth model was developed to describe microbial growth under isothermal conditions. The development of the mathematical model was based on the fundamental phenomenon of microbial growth, which is normally a three-stage process that includes lag, exponential, and stationary phases...

  2. Target population growth: zero.

    PubMed

    2000-02-01

    The Fifth Session of the Fourth National Council of the China Family Planning Association held in Beijing on December 13, 1999, focused on how to control the number of people in China and improve their quality of life. Family planners also explored ways to decrease the number of babies with birth defects and maternal mortality rate. During the meeting, Zhang Weiqing, minister of the State Family Planning Commission, expressed that they are optimistic about keeping the Chinese population under 1.3 billion before the 21st century. He added that top attention should be paid to providing family planning service (sexual and reproductive counseling) for unmarried young people, laid-off workers, and the transient population in urban areas. In Shenzhen, a special economic zone, 854 family planning offices have been established among 2.8 million temporary residents, these agencies, many of which are led by temporary residents themselves. Lastly, Zhang announced that a draft national law on population and family planning has been finished and the law is expected to be enacted in 3 years. PMID:12295907

  3. Development of a chemically defined minimal medium for the exponential growth of Leuconostoc mesenteroides ATCC8293.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yu Jin; Eom, Hyun-Ju; Seo, Eun-Young; Lee, Dong Yup; Kim, Jeong Hwan; Han, Nam Soo

    2012-11-01

    Leuconostoc mesenteroides is a heterofermentative Grampositive bacterium that plays key roles in fermentation of foods such as kimchi, sauerkraut, and milk, leading to the production of various organic acids and aromatic compounds. To study the microbiological and genomic characteristics of L. mesenteroides, we have developed a new chemically defined minimal medium by using the single omission technique. During the exponential cell growth, this species required glutamine, methionine, valine, and nicotinic acid as essential nutrients and 8 amino acids (arginine, cysteine, histidine, leucine, phenylalanine, proline, threonine, and tryptophan), 5 vitamins (ascorbic acid, folic acid, inosine, calcium panthothenate, and thiamine), and others (manganese, magnesium, adenine, uracil, and Tween 80) as supplemental nutrients. This medium is useful to study the metabolic characteristics of L. mesenteroides and to explain its role in food fermentation. PMID:23124343

  4. The Outlook for Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ronald

    2011-01-01

    Projections of population size, growth rates and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100 while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee? PMID:21798936

  5. Population Growth: Family Planning Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.; Taylor, N. Burwell G., Ed.

    These proceedings of the second annual symposium on population growth bring together speeches and panel discussions on family planning programs. Titles of speeches delivered are: Communicating Family Planning (Mrs. Jean Hutchinson); Effects of New York's Abortion Law Change (Dr. Walter Rogers); The Law and Birth Control, Sterilization and Abortion…

  6. Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Alan

    1973-01-01

    Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly

  7. Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Alan

    1973-01-01

    Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly…

  8. Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.

    2016-03-01

    We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

  9. Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.

    2016-04-01

    We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

  10. Teaching the Verhulst Model: A Teaching Experiment in Covariational Reasoning and Exponential Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castillo-Garsow, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    Both Thompson and the duo of Confrey and Smith describe how students might be taught to build "ways of thinking" about exponential behavior by coordinating the covariation of two changing quantities, however, these authors build exponential behavior from different meanings of covariation. Confrey and Smith advocate beginning with discrete additive

  11. Teaching the Verhulst Model: A Teaching Experiment in Covariational Reasoning and Exponential Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castillo-Garsow, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    Both Thompson and the duo of Confrey and Smith describe how students might be taught to build "ways of thinking" about exponential behavior by coordinating the covariation of two changing quantities, however, these authors build exponential behavior from different meanings of covariation. Confrey and Smith advocate beginning with discrete additive…

  12. The Cultural Divide: Exponential Growth in Classical 2D and Metabolic Equilibrium in 3D Environments

    PubMed Central

    Kanlaya, Rattiyaporn; Borkowski, Kamil; Schwämmle, Veit; Dai, Jie; Joensen, Kira Eyd; Wojdyla, Katarzyna; Carvalho, Vasco Botelho; Fey, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Cellular metabolism can be considered to have two extremes: one is characterized by exponential growth (in 2D cultures) and the other by a dynamic equilibrium (in 3D cultures). We have analyzed the proteome and cellular architecture at these two extremes and found that they are dramatically different. Results Structurally, actin organization is changed, microtubules are increased and keratins 8 and 18 decreased. Metabolically, glycolysis, fatty acid metabolism and the pentose phosphate shunt are increased while TCA cycle and oxidative phosphorylation is unchanged. Enzymes involved in cholesterol and urea synthesis are increased consistent with the attainment of cholesterol and urea production rates seen in vivo. DNA repair enzymes are increased even though cells are predominantly in Go. Transport around the cell – along the microtubules, through the nuclear pore and in various types of vesicles has been prioritized. There are numerous coherent changes in transcription, splicing, translation, protein folding and degradation. The amount of individual proteins within complexes is shown to be highly coordinated. Typically subunits which initiate a particular function are present in increased amounts compared to other subunits of the same complex. Summary We have previously demonstrated that cells at dynamic equilibrium can match the physiological performance of cells in tissues in vivo. Here we describe the multitude of protein changes necessary to achieve this performance. PMID:25222612

  13. Metabolic Flux Analysis during the Exponential Growth Phase of Saccharomyces cerevisiae in Wine Fermentations

    PubMed Central

    Quirós, Manuel; Martínez-Moreno, Rubén; Albiol, Joan; Morales, Pilar; Vázquez-Lima, Felícitas; Barreiro-Vázquez, Antonio; Ferrer, Pau; Gonzalez, Ramon

    2013-01-01

    As a consequence of the increase in global average temperature, grapes with the adequate phenolic and aromatic maturity tend to be overripe by the time of harvest, resulting in increased sugar concentrations and imbalanced C/N ratios in fermenting musts. This fact sets obvious additional hurdles in the challenge of obtaining wines with reduced alcohols levels, a new trend in consumer demands. It would therefore be interesting to understand Saccharomyces cerevisiae physiology during the fermentation of must with these altered characteristics. The present study aims to determine the distribution of metabolic fluxes during the yeast exponential growth phase, when both carbon and nitrogen sources are in excess, using continuous cultures. Two different sugar concentrations were studied under two different winemaking temperature conditions. Although consumption and production rates for key metabolites were severely affected by the different experimental conditions studied, the general distribution of fluxes in central carbon metabolism was basically conserved in all cases. It was also observed that temperature and sugar concentration exerted a higher effect on the pentose phosphate pathway and glycerol formation than on glycolysis and ethanol production. Additionally, nitrogen uptake, both quantitatively and qualitatively, was strongly influenced by environmental conditions. This work provides the most complete stoichiometric model used for Metabolic Flux Analysis of S. cerevisiae in wine fermentations employed so far, including the synthesis and release of relevant aroma compounds and could be used in the design of optimal nitrogen supplementation of wine fermentations. PMID:23967264

  14. Metabolic flux analysis during the exponential growth phase of Saccharomyces cerevisiae in wine fermentations.

    PubMed

    Quirós, Manuel; Martínez-Moreno, Rubén; Albiol, Joan; Morales, Pilar; Vázquez-Lima, Felícitas; Barreiro-Vázquez, Antonio; Ferrer, Pau; Gonzalez, Ramon

    2013-01-01

    As a consequence of the increase in global average temperature, grapes with the adequate phenolic and aromatic maturity tend to be overripe by the time of harvest, resulting in increased sugar concentrations and imbalanced C/N ratios in fermenting musts. This fact sets obvious additional hurdles in the challenge of obtaining wines with reduced alcohols levels, a new trend in consumer demands. It would therefore be interesting to understand Saccharomyces cerevisiae physiology during the fermentation of must with these altered characteristics. The present study aims to determine the distribution of metabolic fluxes during the yeast exponential growth phase, when both carbon and nitrogen sources are in excess, using continuous cultures. Two different sugar concentrations were studied under two different winemaking temperature conditions. Although consumption and production rates for key metabolites were severely affected by the different experimental conditions studied, the general distribution of fluxes in central carbon metabolism was basically conserved in all cases. It was also observed that temperature and sugar concentration exerted a higher effect on the pentose phosphate pathway and glycerol formation than on glycolysis and ethanol production. Additionally, nitrogen uptake, both quantitatively and qualitatively, was strongly influenced by environmental conditions. This work provides the most complete stoichiometric model used for Metabolic Flux Analysis of S. cerevisiae in wine fermentations employed so far, including the synthesis and release of relevant aroma compounds and could be used in the design of optimal nitrogen supplementation of wine fermentations. PMID:23967264

  15. Population growth can be checked.

    PubMed

    Shukla, J P

    Since independence, India's population size has doubled. The rate of growth was 2.5% during 1971-81, an increase from the rate of 2.15% observed during the 1951-61 period. The increase indicated that efforts to decrease population growth have not succeeded. The implications with respect to food, housing, clothing, education, and health facilities, which are fundamental to improving the physical quality of life, are severe. This demographic trend is a serious impediment to progress. The population growth is due to a constant birthrate and a sharp decline in mortality. Reducing the birthrate is necessary to reduce the rate of growth. An attitudinal change adopting the norm of family limitation should be encouraged through propaganda, socioeconomic programs, and religious and cultural organizations. Other measures to bring about a decline in the birthrate include: increasing the marriage age, and expanding educational and employment opportunities for women and girls. These measures will require substantial effort and time. Incentives may show more immediate effects. Monetary incentives are not desired because of the possibility of misuse. However the government could assume responsibility for the education and guarantee employment of children of couples who have only one child, and provide free education to children of couples with only 2 children. These incentives are not likely to be misused, can be available to all segments of the population, and involve no immediate large financial burden on the government. In addition, scholarships to the Harijan students should be limited to 2 per family. If these measures are accepted, they could quickly reduce the birth rate. PMID:12311944

  16. Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.

    This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women"; "World Health"; and "Environmental Relationships." Charts and graphs…

  17. Slow Crack Growth of Brittle Materials With Exponential Crack-Velocity Formulation. Part 2; Constant Stress Rate Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    The previously determined life prediction analysis based on an exponential crack-velocity formulation was examined using a variety of experimental data on glass and advanced structural ceramics in constant stress rate and preload testing at ambient and elevated temperatures. The data fit to the relation of strength versus the log of the stress rate was very reasonable for most of the materials. Also, the preloading technique was determined equally applicable to the case of slow-crack-growth (SCG) parameter n greater than 30 for both the power-law and exponential formulations. The major limitation in the exponential crack-velocity formulation, however, was that the inert strength of a material must be known a priori to evaluate the important SCG parameter n, a significant drawback as compared with the conventional power-law crack-velocity formulation.

  18. Slow Crack Growth of Brittle Materials With Exponential Crack-Velocity Formulation. Part 3; Constant Stress and Cyclic Stress Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    The previously determined life prediction analysis based on an exponential crack-velocity formulation was examined using a variety of experimental data on advanced structural ceramics tested under constant stress and cyclic stress loading at ambient and elevated temperatures. The data fit to the relation between the time to failure and applied stress (or maximum applied stress in cyclic loading) was very reasonable for most of the materials studied. It was also found that life prediction for cyclic stress loading from data of constant stress loading in the exponential formulation was in good agreement with the experimental data, resulting in a similar degree of accuracy as compared with the power-law formulation. The major limitation in the exponential crack-velocity formulation, however, was that the inert strength of a material must be known a priori to evaluate the important slow-crack-growth (SCG) parameter n, a significant drawback as compared with the conventional power-law crack-velocity formulation.

  19. Identification of a novel DNase of Streptococcus suis (EndAsuis) important for neutrophil extracellular trap degradation during exponential growth.

    PubMed

    de Buhr, Nicole; Stehr, Matthias; Neumann, Ariane; Naim, Hassan Y; Valentin-Weigand, Peter; von Köckritz-Blickwede, Maren; Baums, Christoph G

    2015-04-01

    The porcine and human pathogen Streptococcus suis induces and degrades neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) in vitro. In this study, we investigated the working hypothesis that NET degradation is mediated not only by the known secreted S. suis nuclease A (SsnA) but also by a so-far undescribed putative endonuclease A of S. suis (designated EndAsuis) homologous to the pneumococcal endonuclease A (EndA). Comparative analysis was conducted to identify differences in localization, expression and function of EndAsuis and SsnA. In contrast to ssnA, endAsuis RNA expression was not substantially different during exponential and stationary growth. Modelling of the 3D structure confirmed a putative DRGH-motif-containing ββα-metal finger catalytic core in EndAsuis. Accordingly, nuclease activity of recombinant EndAsuis with a point-mutated H165 was rescued through imidazol treatment. In accordance with a putative membrane anchor, nuclease activity caused by endAsuis was not detectable in the supernatant. Importantly, endAsuis determined nuclease activity of S. suis prominently during exponential growth. This activity depended on the presence of Mg(2+) but, in contrast to SsnA activity, not on Ca(2+). A pH of 5.4 did not inhibit endAsuis-encoded nuclease activity during exponential growth. NET degradation of S. suis harvested during exponential growth was significantly attenuated in the endAsuis mutant. In contrast to SsnA, mutagenesis of endAsuis did not result in a significantly higher susceptibility against the antimicrobial effect mediated by NETs. As degradation of bacterial DNA caused by S. suis depended on ssnA and endAsuis, further functions of both factors in the host-pathogen interaction might be envisioned. PMID:25667008

  20. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  1. Multiple semiclassical states for coupled Schrödinger-Poisson equations with critical exponential growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhisu; Guo, Shangjiang; Fang, Yanqin

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we study the multiplicity of positive solutions for a class of Schrödinger-Poisson systems. Working in a variational setting, we prove the existence and multiplicity of positive solutions for the system when the Plank's constant is small and the potential satisfies some suitable conditions. We show that the number of positive solutions depends on the profile of the potential and that each solution concentrates around its corresponding global minimum point of the potential in the semi-classical limit. We also study the exponential decay.

  2. Population growth rates: issues and an application.

    PubMed Central

    Godfray, H Charles J; Rees, Mark

    2002-01-01

    Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering. PMID:12396521

  3. Approximate models for the study of exponential changed quantities: Application on the plasma waves growth rate or damping

    SciTech Connect

    Xaplanteris, C. L.; Xaplanteris, L. C.; Leousis, D. P.

    2014-03-15

    Many physical phenomena that concern the research these days are basically complicated because of being multi-parametric. Thus, their study and understanding meets with big if not unsolved obstacles. Such complicated and multi-parametric is the plasmatic state as well, where the plasma and the physical quantities that appear along with it have chaotic behavior. Many of those physical quantities change exponentially and at most times they are stabilized by presenting wavy behavior. Mostly in the transitive state rather than the steady state, the exponentially changing quantities (Growth, Damping etc) depend on each other in most cases. Thus, it is difficult to distinguish the cause from the result. The present paper attempts to help this difficult study and understanding by proposing mathematical exponential models that could relate with the study and understanding of the plasmatic wavy instability behavior. Such instabilities are already detected, understood and presented in previous publications of our laboratory. In other words, our new contribution is the study of the already known plasmatic quantities by using mathematical models (modeling and simulation). These methods are both useful and applicable in the chaotic theory. In addition, our ambition is to also conduct a list of models useful for the study of chaotic problems, such as those that appear into the plasma, starting with this paper's examples.

  4. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  5. Population Growth and Economic and Social Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clausen, A. W.

    Because evidence is clear that in many developing countries development will be postponed indefinitely unless slower population growth can be achieved soon, the international community must work together in a renewed effort to slow population growth. Assistance can be accomplished in three ways: (1) encouraging dialog aimed at forging…

  6. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across

  7. Population aging and endogenous economic growth.

    PubMed

    Prettner, Klaus

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:23576847

  8. Lack of synchronization between iron uptake and cell growth leads to iron overload in Saccharomyces cerevisiae during post-exponential growth modes

    PubMed Central

    Park, Jinkyu; McCormick, Sean P.; Chakrabarti, Mrinmoy; Lindahl, Paul A.

    2014-01-01

    Fermenting cells growing exponentially on rich (YPAD) medium transitioned to a slow-growing state as glucose levels declined and their metabolism shifted to respiration. During exponential growth, Fe import and cell growth rates were matched, affording an approximately invariant cellular Fe concentration. During the transitionary period, the high-affinity Fe import rate declined slower than the cell growth rate declined, causing Fe to accumulate, initially as FeIII oxyhydroxide nanoparticles but eventually as mitochondrial and vacuolar Fe. Once in slow-growth mode, Fe import and cell growth rates were again matched, and the cellular Fe concentration was again approximately invariant. Fermenting cells grown on minimal medium (MM) grew more slowly during exponential phase and transitioned to a true stationary state as glucose levels declined. The Fe concentration of MM cells that just entered stationary state was similar to that of YPAD cells, but MM cells continued to accumulate Fe in stationary state. Fe initially accumulated as nanoparticles and high-spin FeII species, but vacuolar FeIII also eventually accumulated. Surprisingly, Fe-packed 5-day-old MM cells suffered no more ROS damage than younger cells, suggesting that Fe concentration alone does not accurately predict the extent of ROS damage. The mode and rate of growth at the time of harvesting dramatically affected cellular Fe content. A mathematical model of Fe metabolism in a growing cell was developed. The model included Fe import via a regulated high-affinity pathway and an unregulated low-affinity pathway. Fe import from the cytosol into vacuoles and mitochondria, and nanoparticle formation were also included. The model captured essential trafficking behavior, demonstrating that cells regulate Fe import in accordance with their overall growth rate and that they misregulate Fe import when nanoparticles accumulate. The lack of regulation of Fe in yeast is perhaps unique compared to the tight regulation of other cellular metabolites. This phenomenon likely derives from the unique chemistry associated with Fe nanoparticle formation. PMID:24344915

  9. A new mechanistic growth model for simultaneous determination of lag phase duration and exponential growth rate and a new Belehdradek-type model for evaluating the effect of temperature on growth rate

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A new mechanistic growth model was developed to describe microbial growth under isothermal conditions. The new mathematical model was derived from the basic observation of bacterial growth that may include lag, exponential, and stationary phases. With this model, the lag phase duration and exponen...

  10. Transition to independence by subadult beavers (Castor canadensis) in an unexploited, exponentially growing population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeStefano, S.; Koenen, Kiana K. G.; Henner, C.M.; Strules, J.

    2006-01-01

    We conducted a 4-year study of beavers Castor canadensis to compare the movements, survival and habitat of adults established in existing colonies to juveniles dispersing to new sites in a region with high beaver densities along a suburban-rural gradient. Estimates of annual survival were high for adult and juvenile beavers. Of nine known mortalities, seven (78%) were juveniles. Mortalities occurred during spring-summer, and none during fall-winter. There was a trend toward higher-to-lower survival along the suburban-rural gradient, respectively. Human-induced mortality (e.g. trapping and shooting) was higher in rural areas, whereas nonhuman-induced mortality (e.g. disease, accidents) was higher in suburban areas. Fifteen (14 subadults and one adult) beavers moved from natal colonies to other areas. The average dispersal distance for subadults was 4.5 km (SE = 1.0) along streams or rivers, or 3.5 km (SE = 0.7) straight-line point-to-point. Most dispersal movements were made in spring (April-June). In two cases, individual subadults made return movements from their dispersal sites back to their natal colonies. Dispersal sites tended to be in smaller, shallower wetlands or streams and in areas with higher overstorey canopy closure compared with natal colonies. Woody vegetation usually preferred by beavers for food tended to be less common at dispersal sites than at natal colonies. In regions with high densities of beaver, dispersing juveniles are likely to attempt to colonize lower quality sites. High densities of beavers also lead to more human-beaver conflicts and, in Massachusetts, the pest control management options in place during the past decade have been ineffectual at controlling population levels. Alternately, in regions with no beavers or very low densities and where reintroductions are being attempted, the landscape matrix surrounding release sites should include suitable sites for dispersing young to establish colonies.

  11. Understanding Linear and Exponential Growth: Searching for the Roots in 6- To 9-Year-Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ebersbach, Mirjam; Van Dooren, Wim; Van den Noortgate, Wim; Resing, Wilma C. M.

    2008-01-01

    Previous studies have suggested that children as young as 9 years old have developed an understanding of non-linear growth processes prior to formal education. The present experiment aimed at investigating this competency in even younger samples (i.e., in kindergartners, first, and third graders, ages 6, 7 and 9, respectively). Children (N=90)…

  12. A Simple Device for Teaching Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bojorquez, Luis; Galvan, Silvia C.

    1982-01-01

    A simple teaching model, designed to show rapidly which are the principal factors in population growth and how they are related, is presented. The apparatus described allows students to play several different active roles. (MP)

  13. [A model of the population growth of the Earth].

    PubMed

    Kapitsa, S P

    1995-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. World population drives all other global issues--of food and energy, resources and the environment. Although demographic data in a quantitative way does express the net result of our economic, social and cultural development, methods of demography can hardly suggest a more general, synergistic, approach to the study of long term growth. To describe this process in its past and project it into the foreseeable future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolving dynamic system. The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be self-similar. This invokes scaling and mathematically is expressed by a power law. Comparison with population data leads to a consistent description of growth by a hyperbolic growth curve valid from the Paleolithic up to the middle of this century. In terms of kinetics the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people, rather than their number, as in the case of exponential growth. Thus nonlinear quadratic rate describes the sum outcome of all mechanisms that contribute to our growth and development in a collective interactive process. Taken without limits this pattern is divergent in the distant past and present, when it describes the population explosion. These singularities are cut off by introducing a characteristic time of 42 years,--the effective human life span--as the microscopic time constant in this phenomenology. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution congruent to 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived: congruent to 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing an inherent periodicity. On this scale, as we go into the past the rate of growth decreases when, finally in the early Paleolithic any appreciable change would take a million years to happen. As we approach the present this progression of cycles with the consequent compression of the time scale is now terminated by the demographic transition. This is seen as a singular epoch in all human development when the basic mode of world population growth is to change.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS) PMID:7483750

  14. Phase space structure of multi-dimensional systems by means of the mean exponential growth factor of nearby orbits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cincotta, P. M.; Giordano, C. M.; Simó, C.

    2003-08-01

    In this paper we deal with an alternative technique to study global dynamics in Hamiltonian systems, the mean exponential growth factor of nearby orbits (MEGNO), that proves to be efficient to investigate both regular and stochastic components of phase space. It provides a clear picture of resonance structures, location of stable and unstable periodic orbits as well as a measure of hyperbolicity in chaotic domains which coincides with that given by the Lyapunov characteristic number. Here the MEGNO is applied to a rather simple model, the 3D perturbed quartic oscillator, in order to visualize the structure of its phase space and obtain a quite clear picture of its resonance structure. Examples of application to multi-dimensional canonical maps are also included.

  15. The Oenococcus oeni clpX Homologue Is a Heat Shock Gene Preferentially Expressed in Exponential Growth Phase

    PubMed Central

    Jobin, Michel-Philippe; Garmyn, Dominique; Diviès, Charles; Guzzo, Jean

    1999-01-01

    Using degenerated primers from conserved regions of previously studied clpX gene products, we cloned the clpX gene of the malolactic bacterium Oenococcus oeni. The clpX gene was sequenced, and the deduced protein of 413 amino acids (predicted molecular mass of 45,650 Da) was highly similar to previously analyzed clpX gene products from other organisms. An open reading frame located upstream of the clpX gene was identified as the tig gene by similarity of its predicted product to other bacterial trigger factors. ClpX was purified by using a maltose binding protein fusion system and was shown to possess an ATPase activity. Northern analyses indicated the presence of two independent 1.6-kb monocistronic clpX and tig mRNAs and also showed an increase in clpX mRNA amount after a temperature shift from 30 to 42°C. The clpX transcript is abundant in the early exponential growth phase and progressively declines to undetectable levels in the stationary phase. Thus, unlike hsp18, the gene encoding one of the major small heat shock proteins of Oenococcus oeni, clpX expression is related to the exponential growth phase and requires de novo protein synthesis. Primer extension analysis identified the 5′ end of clpX mRNA which is located 408 nucleotides upstream of a putative AUA start codon. The putative transcription start site allowed identification of a predicted promoter sequence with a high similarity to the consensus sequence found in the housekeeping gene promoter of gram-positive bacteria as well as Escherichia coli. PMID:10542163

  16. A population growth model forced by random, episodic disturbances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peckham, S. D.

    2011-12-01

    As a first step to quantify and better understand the nature of thresholds in ecosystems, a prototype population dynamics model has been developed and analyzed for the case where a population is subjected to random, episodic disturbances. This model assumes that disturbances occur at random times (following a Poisson event process) and have random magnitudes that determine the fraction of the population that survives the disturbance. Disturbances may be events such as fire, drought, disease or infestation. Between disturbances, the model assumes that population growth is deterministic and can be modeled by an exponential or logistic equation. The model is characterized by time, t, and four other parameters: the initial population size, N0, the per capita growth rate, r, the expected number of disturbance events per unit time, λ , and μ = E(X), where X is the random fraction (between 0 and 1) of the population that survives a given disturbance. What is nice about this simple, stochastic model is that it is mathematically tractable and clearly exhibits threshold behavior that can be computed explicitly in terms of the model parameters. In particular, the long-term behavior of the model is characterized by an easily-computed indicator that is a function of the model parameters. Whenever the model parameters are such that this indicator is less than zero, the expected value of the random population size declines over time and is unsustainable. But whenever it is greater than zero, the expected population size grows, despite the random disturbances. The case where the indicator is zero therefore represents a type of critical threshold for this problem that determines whether or not the population is likely to survive the disturbances. A number of analytic results will be presented along with numerical results from a large number of simulations.

  17. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    PubMed

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline. PMID:12291578

  18. Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    Evans, Steven N; Ralph, Peter L; Schreiber, Sebastian J; Sen, Arnab

    2013-02-01

    Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. For sedentary populations in a spatially homogeneous yet temporally variable environment, a simple model of population growth is a stochastic differential equation dZ(t) = μZ(t)dt + σZ(t)dW(t), t ≥ 0, where the conditional law of Z(t+Δt)-Z(t) given Z(t) = z has mean and variance approximately z μΔt and z²σ²Δt when the time increment Δt is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log Z(t) for such a population equals μ − σ²/2 . Most populations, however, experience spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study an analogous model X(t) = (X¹(t) , . . . , X(n)(t)), t ≥ 0, for the population abundances in n patches: the conditional law of X(t+Δt) given X(t) = x is such that the conditional mean of X(i)(t+Δt) − X(i)(t) is approximately [x(i)μ(i) + Σ(j) (x(j) D(ji) − x(i) D(i j) )]Δt where μ(i) is the per capita growth rate in the ith patch and D(ij) is the dispersal rate from the ith patch to the jth patch, and the conditional covariance of X(i)(t+Δt)− X(i)(t) and X(j)(t+Δt) − X(j)(t) is approximately x(i)x(j)σ(ij)Δt for some covariance matrix Σ = (σ(ij)). We show for such a spatially extended population that if S(t) = X¹(t)+· · ·+ X(n)(t) denotes the total population abundance, then Y(t) = X(t)/S(t), the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector Y(∞) as t → ∞, and the stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log S(t) equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate Σ(i)μ(i)E[Y(i)(∞)] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation E[Σ(i,j) σ(i j)Y(i)(∞) Y(j)(∞)] experienced by the population. Using this characterization of the stochastic growth rate, we derive an explicit expression for the stochastic growth rate for populations living in two patches, determine which choices of the dispersal matrix D produce the maximal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, derive an analytic approximation of the stochastic growth rate for dispersal limited populations, and use group theoretic techniques to approximate the stochastic growth rate for populations living in multi-scale landscapes (e.g. insects on plants in meadows on islands). Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology. For example, our analysis implies that even in the absence of density-dependent feedbacks, ideal-free dispersers occupy multiple patches in spatially heterogeneous environments provided environmental fluctuations are sufficiently strong and sufficiently weakly correlated across space. In contrast, for diffusively dispersing populations living in similar environments, intermediate dispersal rates maximize their stochastic growth rate. PMID:22427143

  19. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Adair

    2009-01-01

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East. PMID:19770149

  20. Vietnam's campaign to reduce population growth.

    PubMed

    Haub, C

    1999-10-01

    This paper reports campaigns to reduce the population growth in Vietnam. In July, red banners flew above the broad boulevard in Hanoi proclaiming World Population Day. This widespread public attention to population issues is not surprising, given the country's sharp reduction in fertility and widespread citizen support for smaller families. Since 1961, Vietnam has been trying to formulate a policy to reduce the population rate growth. The policy was a reaction to the results of the 1960 Census of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and reflected long-standing concerns over food shortages, as well as a desire to improve women's health and welfare. After the reunification in 1975, the policy was extended to the entire country. Since then, Vietnam's growth rate has been declining, suggesting that the national campaign for smaller families is succeeding in changing deeply held attitudes and perceptions, in addition to current practices. While the fertility decline in Vietnam may not be the world's fastest, the success of the national population policy has forever altered the country's prospect for population growth. PMID:12295331

  1. Lag Phase Is a Distinct Growth Phase That Prepares Bacteria for Exponential Growth and Involves Transient Metal Accumulation

    PubMed Central

    Rolfe, Matthew D.; Rice, Christopher J.; Lucchini, Sacha; Pin, Carmen; Thompson, Arthur; Cameron, Andrew D. S.; Alston, Mark; Stringer, Michael F.; Betts, Roy P.; Baranyi, József; Peck, Michael W.

    2012-01-01

    Lag phase represents the earliest and most poorly understood stage of the bacterial growth cycle. We developed a reproducible experimental system and conducted functional genomic and physiological analyses of a 2-h lag phase in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium. Adaptation began within 4 min of inoculation into fresh LB medium with the transient expression of genes involved in phosphate uptake. The main lag-phase transcriptional program initiated at 20 min with the upregulation of 945 genes encoding processes such as transcription, translation, iron-sulfur protein assembly, nucleotide metabolism, LPS biosynthesis, and aerobic respiration. ChIP-chip revealed that RNA polymerase was not “poised” upstream of the bacterial genes that are rapidly induced at the beginning of lag phase, suggesting a mechanism that involves de novo partitioning of RNA polymerase to transcribe 522 bacterial genes within 4 min of leaving stationary phase. We used inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to discover that iron, calcium, and manganese are accumulated by S. Typhimurium during lag phase, while levels of cobalt, nickel, and sodium showed distinct growth-phase-specific patterns. The high concentration of iron during lag phase was associated with transient sensitivity to oxidative stress. The study of lag phase promises to identify the physiological and regulatory processes responsible for adaptation to new environments. PMID:22139505

  2. A Revisionist Look at Population and Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holden, Constance

    1986-01-01

    Presents highlights from a National Research Council report titled "Population Growth and Economic Questions: Policy Questions." Includes brief comments on the report's conclusions related to exhaustible resources, renewable resources, pollution, work productivity, economics of scale and technological innovation, schooling, income distribution,

  3. On the theory of global population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    2010-12-01

    Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics.

  4. Comparison of logistic equations for population growth.

    PubMed

    Jensen, A L

    1975-12-01

    Two different forms of the logistic equation for population growth appear in the ecological literature. In the form of the logistic equation that appears in recent ecology textbooks the parameters are the instantaneous rate of natural increase per individual and the carrying capacity of the environment. In the form of the logistic equation that appears in some older literature the parameters are the instantaneous birth rate per individual and the carrying capacity. The decision whether to use one form or the other depends on which form of the equation is biologically more realistic. In this study the form of the logistic equation in which the instantaneous birth rate per individual is a parameter is shown to be more realistic in terms of the birth and death processes of population growth. Application of the logistic equation to calculate yield from an exploited fish population also shows that the parameters must be the instantaneous birth rate per individual and the carrying capacity. PMID:1203427

  5. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    PubMed

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative overpopulation is eliminated. This represents the primary difference between the demographic law of socialism and the law of capitalism. In the Soviet Union a gradual decrease of the birthrate and the growth rate of population is evident. The industrialization of the country and collectivization of the peasant farms carried into effect within a short time by the Soviet rule ensured quick progress in economy. The high standard of economic and cultural development achieved in the Soviet Union soon affected the indices of the population's production. The birthrate in the Soviet Union was affected essentially by the causes acting toward its decrease as in the western countries, but under socialist conditions of production these asserted themselves largely in a different way. The experience of the Soviet Union demonstrates that by making use of the scientific and technical knowledge at the command of humankind, industrialization can be realized. PMID:12313935

  6. Simulation of population growth and structure of the population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maksymowicz, A. Z.

    2002-08-01

    A computer study of population growth and biological ageing in the Penna model is presented. The stress is put on the analysis of the age structure and the distribution of 'bad' mutations m in the population. Results of computer simulation are compared with the simplest logistic model approach which ignores genetic contribution to the life game and accounts only for death due to limited environmental capacity, the Verhulst factor. The Penna model accounts also for genetic load and results of the simulation show that the final population essentially consists of the fittest individuals, as is expected. A more detailed analysis of the genome structure Δ( m) discloses significant marks of the history. The main conclusions are: (a) there is a clear correlation between population n, age a and the number m of bad mutations and (b) there is no correlation between particular configurations Δ( m) of genomes of the same m and the fraction of the population of this characteristics Δ( m). A typical run takes a couple of hours on an HP EXEMPLAR machine, and for a population of about n=10 6.

  7. Segregated growth kinetics of Escherichia coli DH5?-NH36 in exponential-fed perfusion culture for pDNA vaccine production.

    PubMed

    Mungua-Soto, Rodolfo; Garca-Rendn, Aurora; Garibay-Escobar, Adriana; Guerrero-Germn, Patricia; Tejeda-Mansir, Armando

    2015-11-01

    The clinical demand of plasmid DNA (pDNA) has been increasing constantly. An exponential-fed perfusion (EFP) culture is a new mode for plasmid production for clinical trials and commercialization. However, the culture conditions may lead to cell filamentation and growth cessation. In this study, the variation of the physiological state and the plasmid contents of Escherichia coli DH5? hosting pVAX1-NH36 in an EFP culture for application as a Leishmaniasis vaccine was investigated. The culture performance was monitored using flow cytometry (FC) and real-time quantitative PCR. The FC studies showed a high viability of cell population and a constant distribution of complexity and size. A high homogeneity of pDNA (>95 % of supercoiled) was obtained, which might be attributed to a better culture environment. The obtained plasmid specific and volumetric yields of 1.8 mg/g dcw and 36.5 mg/L represent typical values for laboratory-scale plasmid production in a defined medium. A segregated kinetic model of the perfusion system was developed and fitted to the experimental data (R(2) > 0.96). A practical conclusion of this work is that a space-time yield analysis of a bioprocess requires a viability evaluation. This new strategy of culture operation might help in the efficient production of pDNA for therapeutic use. PMID:25556882

  8. Design issues for population growth models

    PubMed Central

    López Fidalgo, J.; Ortiz Rodríguez, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    We briefly review and discuss design issues for population growth and decline models. We then use a flexible growth and decline model as an illustrative example and apply optimal design theory to find optimal sampling times for estimating model parameters, specific parameters and interesting functions of the model parameters for the model with two real applications. Robustness properties of the optimal designs are investigated when nominal values or the model is mis-specified, and also under a different optimality criterion. To facilitate use of optimal design ideas in practice, we also introduce a website for generating a variety of optimal designs for popular models from different disciplines. PMID:21647244

  9. Age-dependent models of population growth.

    PubMed

    Ziebur, A D

    1984-12-01

    P. H. Leslie (1945, Biometrika 33, 183-212) (and others) introduced vector-matrix growth difference equations to model populations in which birth and death rates are age-dependent. We develop differential versions of these equations in both the unrestricted growth and logistic cases. We find that the vector logistic equations (difference and differential) are explicitly solvable in terms of solutions of the unrestricted equations, even when vital rates vary with time. These explicit solution formulas make it easy to determine the behavior of solutions as time goes on. PMID:6515584

  10. Living bacteria rheology: population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows.

    PubMed

    Patrcio, P; Almeida, P L; Portela, R; Sobral, R G; Grilo, I R; Cidade, T; Leal, C R

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology-in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus-strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9-were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage. PMID:25215771

  11. Living bacteria rheology: Population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patrício, P.; Almeida, P. L.; Portela, R.; Sobral, R. G.; Grilo, I. R.; Cidade, T.; Leal, C. R.

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology—in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus—strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9—were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

  12. World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Mary Mederios

    This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

  13. An exponential growth of computational phantom research in radiation protection, imaging, and radiotherapy: a review of the fifty-year history.

    PubMed

    Xu, X George

    2014-09-21

    Radiation dose calculation using models of the human anatomy has been a subject of great interest to radiation protection, medical imaging, and radiotherapy. However, early pioneers of this field did not foresee the exponential growth of research activity as observed today. This review article walks the reader through the history of the research and development in this field of study which started some 50 years ago. This review identifies a clear progression of computational phantom complexity which can be denoted by three distinct generations. The first generation of stylized phantoms, representing a grouping of less than dozen models, was initially developed in the 1960s at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to calculate internal doses from nuclear medicine procedures. Despite their anatomical simplicity, these computational phantoms were the best tools available at the time for internal/external dosimetry, image evaluation, and treatment dose evaluations. A second generation of a large number of voxelized phantoms arose rapidly in the late 1980s as a result of the increased availability of tomographic medical imaging and computers. Surprisingly, the last decade saw the emergence of the third generation of phantoms which are based on advanced geometries called boundary representation (BREP) in the form of Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS) or polygonal meshes. This new class of phantoms now consists of over 287 models including those used for non-ionizing radiation applications. This review article aims to provide the reader with a general understanding of how the field of computational phantoms came about and the technical challenges it faced at different times. This goal is achieved by defining basic geometry modeling techniques and by analyzing selected phantoms in terms of geometrical features and dosimetric problems to be solved. The rich historical information is summarized in four tables that are aided by highlights in the text on how some of the most well-known phantoms were developed and used in practice. Some of the information covered in this review has not been previously reported, for example, the CAM and CAF phantoms developed in 1970s for space radiation applications. The author also clarifies confusion about 'population-average' prospective dosimetry needed for radiological protection under the current ICRP radiation protection system and 'individualized' retrospective dosimetry often performed for medical physics studies. To illustrate the impact of computational phantoms, a section of this article is devoted to examples from the author's own research group. Finally the author explains an unexpected finding during the course of preparing for this article that the phantoms from the past 50 years followed a pattern of exponential growth. The review ends on a brief discussion of future research needs (a supplementary file '3DPhantoms.pdf' to figure 15 is available for download that will allow a reader to interactively visualize the phantoms in 3D). PMID:25144730

  14. An exponential growth of computational phantom research in radiation protection, imaging, and radiotherapy: A review of the fifty-year history

    PubMed Central

    Xu, X. George

    2014-01-01

    Radiation dose calculation using models of the human anatomy has been a subject of great interest to radiation protection, medical imaging, and radiotherapy. However, early pioneers of this field did not foresee the exponential growth of research activity as observed today. This review article walks the reader through the history of the research and development in this field of study which started some 50 years ago. This review identifies a clear progression of computational phantom complexity which can be denoted by three distinct generations. The first generation of stylized phantoms, representing a grouping of less than dozen models, was initially developed in the 1960s at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to calculate internal doses from nuclear medicine procedures. Despite their anatomical simplicity, these computational phantoms were the best tools available at the time for internal/external dosimetry, image evaluation, and treatment dose evaluations. A second generation of a large number of voxelized phantoms arose rapidly in the late 1980s as a result of the increased availability of tomographic medical imaging and computers. Surprisingly, the last decade saw the emergence of the third generation of phantoms which are based on advanced geometries called boundary representation (BREP) in the form of Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS) or polygonal meshes. This new class of phantoms now consists of over 287 models including those used for non-ionizing radiation applications. This review article aims to provide the reader with a general understanding of how the field of computational phantoms came about and the technical challenges it faced at different times. This goal is achieved by defining basic geometry modeling techniques and by analyzing selected phantoms in terms of geometrical features and dosimetric problems to be solved. The rich historical information is summarized in four tables that are aided by highlights in the text on how some of the most well-known phantoms were developed and used in practice. Some of the information covered in this review has not been previously reported, for example, the CAM and CAF phantoms developed in 1970s for space radiation applications. The author also clarifies confusion about “population-average” prospective dosimetry needed for radiological protection under the current ICRP radiation protection system and “individualized” retrospective dosimetry often performed for medical physics studies. To illustrate the impact of computational phantoms, a section of this article is devoted to examples from the author’s own research group. Finally the author explains an unexpected finding during the course of preparing for this article that the phantoms from the past 50 years followed a pattern of exponential growth. The review ends on a brief discussion of future research needs (A supplementary file “3DPhantoms.pdf” to Figure 15 is available for download that will allow a reader to interactively visualize the phantoms in 3D). PMID:25144730

  15. Pakistan's population growth: the need for action.

    PubMed

    Robey, B

    1991-06-01

    Despite the existence of a national family planning program that dates to 1965 Pakistan has not seen a reduction in the fertility rate. One of the poorest countries in the world, Pakistan has 1 of the highest population growth rates in the world at about 3.0% annually. For over 2 decades, the average woman in Pakistan has given birth to more than 6 children. At the current fertility rate, the country's current population of 120 million will increase to over 150 million by the year 2000, and it will increase to 280 million by 2020. And even if today every woman were to begin having only 2 children, the population would still reach 160 million before leveling off. But reducing fertility in Pakistan will prove difficult. One of the leading obstacles is the low status of women. Few women in Pakistan have advanced education or professional jobs. Only 1/4 of those women without education or who are not working have any knowledge concerning contraception. Family size and composition also fuel the high rate of fertility. On the average, women desire 5 children (the fact that women average more than 5 suggests an unmet need for contraception). And due to social, cultural, and economic conditions, Pakistanis generally prefer male offsprings. Islamic opposition to family planning has also contributed to the continued high rates of fertility. Finally, administrative and management weaknesses have hindered Pakistan's family planning program. In order to overcome these obstacles, Pakistan will have to enlist the commitment of political, religious, and community leaders. The status of women will have to be improved, and the attitudes of people will need to change. PMID:12283984

  16. Different isotope and chemical patterns of pyrite oxidation related to lag and exponential growth phases of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans reveal a microbial growth strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunner, Benjamin; Yu, Jae-Young; Mielke, Randall E.; MacAskill, John A.; Madzunkov, Stojan; McGenity, Terry J.; Coleman, Max

    2008-06-01

    The solution chemistry during the initial (slow increase of dissolved iron and sulfate) and main stage (rapid increase of dissolved iron and sulfate) of pyrite leaching by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans (Af) at a starting pH of 2.05 shows significant differences. During the initial stage, ferrous iron (Fe2+) is the dominant iron species in solution and the molar ratio of produced sulfate (SO42-) and total iron (Fetot) is 1.1, thus does not reflect the stoichiometry of pyrite (FeS2). During the main stage, ferric iron (Fe3+) is the dominant iron species in solution and the SO42-:Fetot ratio is with 1.9, close to the stoichiometry of FeS2. Another difference between initial and main stage is an initial trend to slightly higher pH values followed by a drop during the main stage to pH 1.84. These observations raise the question if there are different modes of bioleaching of pyrite, and if there are, what those modes imply in terms of leaching mechanisms. Different oxygen and sulfur isotope trends of sulfate during the initial and main stages of pyrite oxidation confirm that there are two pyrite bioleaching modes. The biochemical reactions during initial stage are best explained by the net reaction FeS2 + 3O2 ⇒ Fe2+ + SO42- + SO2(g). The degassing of sulfur dioxide (SO2) acts as sink for sulfur depleted in 34S compared to pyrite, and is the cause of the SO42-:Fetot ratio of 1.1 and the near constant pH. During the exponential phase, pyrite sulfur is almost quantitatively converted to sulfate, according to the net reaction FeS2 + 15/4O2 + 1/2H2O ⇒ Fe3+ + 2SO42- + H+. We hypothesize that the transition between the modes of bioleaching of pyrite is due to the impact of the accumulation of ferrous iron, which induces changes in the metabolic activity of Af and may act as an inhibitor for the oxidation of sulfur species. This transition defines a fundamental change in the growth strategy of Af. A mode, where bacteria gain energy by oxidation of elemental sulfur to sulfite but show little growth is switched into a mode, where bacteria gain a smaller amount of energy by the oxidation of ferrous iron, but induce much faster pyrite leaching rates due to the production of ferric iron.

  17. Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

    PubMed

    Zhu, J

    1995-01-01

    In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration. PMID:12288964

  18. Brazilian population 1982: growth, migration, race, religion.

    PubMed

    Sanders, T G

    1982-01-01

    The rate of population increase dropped to less than 2.5% annually in Brazil between 1970-80, but 26 million more people were born. The 1980 census also provides details of continuing urbanization, settlement of the farthest frontiers, and changes in racial composition. The direct cause of the drop in population increase was a drop of about 15% in the fertility rate that had been projected for the decade. Brazil's rate of population increase declined impressively despite the fact that the country continued to make progress in reducing mortality. The greatest improvement occurred between 1930-60. The mortality rate averaged 20.9/1000 between 1940-50 but dropped to 14.2/1000 between 1950-60. Even though the crude death rate dropped 28% in the 1970-80 decade and each child born in 1980 can expect to live 6.5 years longer than a child born in 1970, the life expectancy of 62 years compares with Colombia and El Salvador, which are much poorer countries. In Brazil as a whole the crude birthrate in the 15-19 age group was 66/1000 in 1980. It was 46/1000 in 1970, an increase of nearly 50%. In urban areas the rate increased from 37/1000 to 57/1000 and in the countryside from 59/1000 to 89/1000. The crude birthrate went down slightly in Brazil from 1970-80 from 34 to 32/1000. The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped in the same period from 4.9ll to 3.983. The question that arises is whether fertility rates will increase, with women in the youngest age group continuing to have more children during their reproductive years. Internal migration plays a major role in the distribution of the population. Between 1970-80 there were changes in the migration pattern from the previous decade. All the rapidly growing areas, defined as the frontier, have high fertility rates, but much of their growth results from migration. Between 1960-70 and 1970-80 the most rapidly growing areas of the frontier changed. Few are aware of the extent to which Brazil is becoming a country of large cities. The top 10 of the 30 largest cities in the country all have more than 1 million inhabitants. Another manifestation of urbanization within states is the overall loss of population in the rural areas while most of the capital cities grew quite rapidly. Brazil is a multiracial society based on the native Amerindians, Europeans, Middle Easterners, the decendants of African slaves, and Orientals. A substantial portion of the population is racially mixed and cannot be placed within any of these categories. In the 1980 census the racial categories were the ones used in prevouse censuses: white, black, yellow, and "parda" (mixed). Brazil's population is predominantly white, but nearly 45% is racially mixed or black. Orientals are less than 1%. In regard to religion, the clearest trend is an increase in Protestants. PMID:12338986

  19. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and

  20. Rapid Population Growth-Cause or Result of Global Problems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Richard H.

    Explosive population growth is a symptom of the world's unjust and inequitable social, political, and economic conditions. The current rate of growth is staggering, particularly in the cities of the underdeveloped countries. While some progress has been made in slowing population growth, several factors still contribute to its momentum. One of…

  1. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

  2. Population Growth and a Sustainable Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortimore, Michael; Tiffen, Mary

    1994-01-01

    Provides a history of farming practices in a densely populated area of Kenya where a recent study of the resource management practices showed positive, not negative, influences of increasing population density on both environmental conservation and productivity. (LZ)

  3. Recovering population parameters from a single gene genealogy: an unbiased estimator of the growth rate.

    PubMed

    Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; Wakeley, John

    2011-05-01

    We show that the number of lineages ancestral to a sample, as a function of time back into the past, which we call the number of lineages as a function of time (NLFT), is a nearly deterministic property of large-sample gene genealogies. We obtain analytic expressions for the NLFT for both constant-sized and exponentially growing populations. The low level of stochastic variation associated with the NLFT of a large sample suggests using the NLFT to make estimates of population parameters. Based on this, we develop a new computational method of inferring the size and growth rate of a population from a large sample of DNA sequences at a single locus. We apply our method first to a sample of 1,212 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from China, confirming a pattern of recent population growth previously identified using other techniques, but with much smaller confidence intervals for past population sizes due to the low variation of the NLFT. We further analyze a set of 63 mtDNA sequences from blue whales (BWs), concluding that the population grew in the past. This calls for reevaluation of previous studies that were based on the assumption that the BW population was fixed. PMID:21172828

  4. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  5. Population Growth and Educational Policies: An Economic Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Tray, Dennis N.

    A micro-economic model of population growth is presented to assess the relationship between education and fertility. On the basis of population growth evidence, the author presents the following opinions: (1) the potential of education as a policy instrument to influence family size is great but ignorance of the mechanisms through which education…

  6. Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Nakibullah, A

    1998-04-01

    In a poor, overly populated country such as Bangladesh, some believe that a high rate of population growth is a cause of poverty which impedes economic development. Population growth would therefore be exogenous to economic development. However, others believe that rapid population growth is a consequence rather than a cause of poverty. Population growth is therefore endogenous to economic development. Findings are presented from an investigation of whether population growth has been exogenous or endogenous with respect to Bangladesh's development process during the past 3 decades. The increase in per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a measure of development. Data on population, real GDP per capita, and real investment share of GDP are drawn from the Penn World Table prepared by Summers and Heston in 1991. The data are annual and cover the period 1959-90. Analysis of the data indicate that population growth is endogenous to Bangladesh's development process. These findings are reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth. PMID:12294506

  7. Integrated Kinetic and Probabilistic Modeling of the Growth Potential of Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    George, S. M.; Métris, A.

    2015-01-01

    When bacteria are exposed to osmotic stress, some cells recover and grow, while others die or are unculturable. This leads to a viable count growth curve where the cell number decreases before the onset of the exponential growth phase. From such curves, it is impossible to estimate what proportion of the initial cells generates the growth because it leads to an ill-conditioned numerical problem. Here, we applied a combination of experimental and statistical methods, based on optical density measurements, to infer both the probability of growth and the maximum specific growth rate of the culture. We quantified the growth potential of a bacterial population as a quantity composed from the probability of growth and the “suitability” of the growing subpopulation to the new environment. We found that, for all three laboratory media studied, the probability of growth decreased while the “work to be done” by the growing subpopulation (defined as the negative logarithm of their suitability parameter) increased with NaCl concentration. The results suggest that the effect of medium on the probability of growth could be described by a simple shift parameter, a differential NaCl concentration that can be accounted for by the change in the medium composition. Finally, we highlighted the need for further understanding of the effect of the osmoprotectant glycine betaine on metabolism. PMID:25747002

  8. Menaquinone Synthesis is Critical for Maintaining Mycobacterial Viability During Exponential Growth and Recovery from Non-Replicating Persistence

    PubMed Central

    Dhiman, Rakesh K.; Mahapatra, Sebabrata; Slayden, Richard A.; Boyne, Melissa E.; Lenaerts, Anne; Hinshaw, Jerald C.; Angala, Shiva K.; Chatterjee, Delphi; Biswas, Kallolmay; Narayanasamy, Prabagaran; Kurosu, Michio; Crick, Dean C.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Understanding the basis of bacterial persistence in latent infections is critical for eradication of tuberculosis. Analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis mRNA expression in an in vitro model of non-replicating persistence indicated that the bacilli require electron transport chain components and ATP synthesis for survival. Additionally, low μM concentrations of aminoalkoxydiphenylmethane derivatives inhibited both the aerobic growth and survival of non-replicating, persistent M. tuberculosis. Metabolic labeling studies and quantitation of cellular menaquinone levels suggested that menaquinone synthesis, and consequently electron transport, is the target of the aminoalkoxydiphenylmethane derivatives. This hypothesis is strongly supported by the observations that treatment with these compounds inhibits oxygen consumption and that supplementation of growth medium with exogenous menaquinone rescued both growth and oxygen consumption of treated bacilli. In vitro assays indicate that the aminoalkoxydiphenylmethane derivatives specifically inhibit MenA, an enzyme involved in the synthesis of menaquinone. Thus, the results provide insight into the physiology of mycobacterial persistence and a basis for the development of novel drugs that enhance eradication of persistent bacilli and latent tuberculosis. PMID:19220750

  9. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    PubMed

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive functions, the promotion of small families of 4 or fewer children by the government, and the existence of some fertile-aged women who do not wish to have more children all testify to the appearance of a new attitude toward family planning. A goal of the 4th 5-year plan is to increase the proportion of contraceptive users from 2% to 15%. PMID:12315403

  10. The growth and prospects of population sociology in China.

    PubMed

    Li, M

    1989-01-01

    Population sociology is an immature science in China. Several issues are important to consider as population sociology develops. 1) Research subjects need to be specified more rigorously. 2) More indepth discussion needs to take place on a system of research. 3) Population sociology needs to be explained in terms of the relationship to socialism and the contribution to population policies. The future of population sociology within population science is secure because the Party's session in 1978 adopted guidelines to promote the development of science and culture, and because it is necessary to the understanding of population problems in the socialist modernization. Population sociology plays a major role with population economics in policy formation. A large number of scholars have invested effort in the dicipline. One of the basic characteristics of population sociology is the ability to view population and social development dynamically. Research covers population problems related to social problems, and vice versa. It is distinct from other sciences, particularly in research scope. It studies the effects of social elements and population development on one another, which delineates the incompatibility between population growth and social development. China's population sociology did not begin until 1978, even though worldwide the discipline was founded early in the century and grew rapidly during World War II. China's population growth is a hindrance to social and economic development, and more indepth studies are needed to analyze the conflicts between population and modern Chinese society and economy, and to assess how best to slow the population growth. There have been 4 basic views on the study of population sociology. The 1st view is that endorsed by Soviet scholars and emphasizes sociolgical principles which affect population growth. This position is population sociology as a brance of sociology rather than as an independent science. The 2nd view pertains to the explanations of the individual aspects of the relationships between population problems and societal ones. The author considers this view superficial. The 3rd view explains the relationships between development and social phenomena and conditions. The impact of social conditions on population development is explored, and the nature of the status and role of population in social life, particularly socialization. This view lacks a description of the research system. The 4th view reflects the effects of population and social development on one another, which is the preferred view. PMID:12316992

  11. Food Production, Population Growth, and Environmental Quality. Caltech Population Program Occasional Papers, Series 1, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groth, Edward, III

    This paper, one in a series of occasional publications, discusses trends in food production and population growth, emphasizing how environmental quality will be affected. The series is intended to increase understanding of the interrelationships between population growth and socioeconomic and cultural patterns throughout the world, and to…

  12. Social structural consequences of population growth.

    PubMed

    Adams, R E

    1981-01-01

    Estimates from archaeological data of the numbers in the elite classes, nonelite occupational specialists, density of population, city size, and size of political units in the ancient Maya civilization suggest that there was a quantum shift in rate of development in the Early Classic period, associated with intensification of agriculture, and that the social structure approximated to a generalized feudal pattern. PMID:7007390

  13. [The fear of numbers or the challenge of population growth?].

    PubMed

    Loriaux, M

    1991-12-01

    Africa, currently one of the least densely populated continents, is growing so rapidly that its population will comprise some 1.5 billion inhabitants around 2020, and Africans will be more numerous than the population of the developed world. Attitudes about Africa's population size vary widely; many educated Africans believe that low density is a greater disadvantage than overpopulation, but most specialists believe the population of the developing world, and of Africa especially, to be too large, the prospects of significant voluntary reduction are dim. The rate of population growth has thus attracted attention as a factor amenable to modification. Africa's demographic transition remains largely in the future. Its case is unique because of the rate of demographic growth and because the phase of rapid growth will apparently continue far longer in Africa than in any other continent. The widening gap between population growth rates and rates of economic development in Africa inspires great pessimism about the future wellbeing of the population. Population officials urge that demographic growth be slowed in order to reduce pressure on economic and ecological resources and to gain time for social and economic development. But despite the consensus of international organizations, such as the UN Fund for Population, on the desirability of slowing population growth to encourage and permit economic growth, there has actually been relatively little progress since the time of Malthus in understanding the relationship between population, development, and the environment. Some recent works suggest that demographic growth has benefits as well as disadvantages, and the net impact on development is uncertain. Demographic pressure is in this view a far more potent force for innovation than is usually recognized. Population is not just an exogenous variable in development, but it is at the heart of the process. There can be no true integration of population into development until the value of human resources everywhere is reaffirmed. The recognition by international organizations that per capita income or other economic indicators alone are not adequate measures of progress is a favorable sign. The failure of structural adjustment programs to attain their stated goals and the new resolve to lessen their effects on the most vulnerable population sectors are also promising. New orientations toward development in which human resources are given greater prominence may be as ideologically inspired as those they replaced, but they have the merit of greater neutrality concerning the content and form of development and they do not accept the process of development in the West as their sole reference. PMID:12317452

  14. World population projections: alternative paths to zero growth.

    PubMed

    Peck, J M

    1974-01-01

    This article discusses Frejka's analysis of alternative paths to zero population growth. A net reproduction rate (NRR) of 1 is a vital step in reaching zero growth, but because of age distribution variances, it does not necessarily represent zero growth. The projections described here include: 1)the immediate path of achieving NRR of 1 in 1970-1975: 2)rapid path of an NRR of 1 in 2000-2005: and 3)slow path of NRR of 1 in 2040-2045. The population of the world in the year 2000 would be respectively: 5,700,000,000; 6,000000,000; and 7,000,000,000. Zero growth would be reached in 2000 for the immediate path; in 2100 with a population of 8,000,000,000 in the rapid path; and in 2045 with a population of 15,000,000,000. Individual projections are also given for several countries on different continents. PMID:12306893

  15. Diet quality limits summer growth of field vole populations.

    PubMed

    Forbes, Kristian M; Stuart, Peter; Mappes, Tapio; Hoset, Katrine S; Henttonen, Heikki; Huitu, Otso

    2014-01-01

    Marked variation occurs in both seasonal and multiannual population density peaks of northern European small mammal species, including voles. The availability of dietary proteins is a key factor limiting the population growth of herbivore species. The objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which protein availability influences the growth of increasing vole populations. We hypothesise that the summer growth of folivorous vole populations is positively associated with dietary protein availability. A field experiment was conducted over a summer reproductive period in 18 vegetated enclosures. Populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis) were randomised amongst three treatment groups: 1) food supplementation with ad libitum high protein (30% dry weight) pellets, 2) food supplementation with ad libitum low protein (1% dry weight; both supplemented foods had equivalent energy content) pellets, and 3) control (no food supplementation), n = 6 per treatment. Vole density, survival, demographic attributes and condition indicators were monitored with live-trapping and blood sampling. Highest final vole densities were attained in populations that received high protein supplementation and lowest in low protein populations. Control populations displayed intermediate densities. The survival rate of voles was similar in all treatment groups. The proportion of females, and of those that were pregnant or lactating, was highest in the high protein supplemented populations. This suggests that variation in reproductive, rather than survival rates of voles, accounted for density differences between the treatment groups. We found no clear association between population demography and individual physiological condition. Our results demonstrate that dietary protein availability limits vole population growth during the summer growing season. This suggests that the nutritional quality of forage may be an underestimated source of interannual variation in the density and growth rates of widely fluctuating populations of herbivorous small mammals. PMID:24621513

  16. Troublesome trends: population growth, distribution, migration.

    PubMed

    1994-09-01

    The upcoming International Conference on Population and Development and its draft plan of action call for international cooperation in protecting and assisting refugees and displaced persons and in assuring positive consequences in host and origin countries. The draft plan also aims to protect the elderly through enhancing self-reliance and continued work and independent living in their own communities. Social support systems for the elderly must also be strengthened. The document is also concerned with the movement of population to cities and across borders. Recommendations on migration encourage governments to evaluate the impact of economic and environmental policies on population distribution and migration, to promote development of medium-sized urban centers, to encourage rural economic development and placement of industries in rural areas, and to support access to land ownership or use and access to water resources in rural areas. Rural infrastructure and social services need to be improved. Grassroots organizations and cooperatives for establishing credit and marketing products are emphasized. Weak local area management is an obstacle to socioeconomic development, environmental protection, and population distribution. Waste, water, and land management strategies should be adopted. Prevention of the root causes of displacement is particularly important when environmental damage is the consequence or the cause. Women, children, and the elderly who are displaced need protection. Refugee numbers have swelled from 8.5 million in 1985 to 19 million in 1993. Sudden and mass refugee arrivals should be afforded temporary protection until a solution can be found. Conditions must be created for safe and dignified, voluntary repatriation. The social and economic integration of documented, longterm migrants must be assured. PMID:12289932

  17. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.

    PubMed

    Zahid, H Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L

    2016-01-26

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide. PMID:26699457

  18. Population Blocks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Martin H.

    1992-01-01

    Describes an educational game called "Population Blocks" that is designed to illustrate the concept of exponential growth of the human population and some potential effects of overpopulation. The game material consists of wooden blocks; 18 blocks are painted green (representing land), 7 are painted blue (representing water); and the remaining

  19. Population Blocks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Martin H.

    1992-01-01

    Describes an educational game called "Population Blocks" that is designed to illustrate the concept of exponential growth of the human population and some potential effects of overpopulation. The game material consists of wooden blocks; 18 blocks are painted green (representing land), 7 are painted blue (representing water); and the remaining…

  20. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  1. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,

  2. Population Growth and Global Security: Toward an American Strategic Commitment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mumford, Steven

    1981-01-01

    Addresses the world population problem by highlighting three crucial areas: the relationship between population growth control and national security issues, the role of American leadership in resolving the problem, and the barriers to effective action. One barrier discussed in detail is the Roman Catholic Church's stand on abortion and…

  3. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  4. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  5. The New Population Debate: Two Views on Population Growth and Economic Development. Population Trends and Public Policy, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Timothy; Kelley, Allen C.

    Articles representing two views on the issue of rapid population growth and economic development are presented. Although the authors present different perspectives, they agree on many of the fundamentals. For example, both reject alarmism about impending "population explosions" and the use of population as a scapegoat for all Third World ills.…

  6. Recognizing Exponential Growth. Classroom Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dobbs, David E.

    2004-01-01

    Two heuristic and three rigorous arguments are given for the fact that functions of the form Ce[kx], with C an arbitrary constant, are the only solutions of the equation dy/dx=ky where k is constant. Various of the proofs in this self-contained note could find classroom use in a first-year calculus course, an introductory course on differential…

  7. Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development.

    PubMed

    Birdsall, N

    1984-09-01

    A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic conditions for poor families if they hope to reduce population growth. Education and job opportunities must be expanded and social security provided for the elderly. In the past it was assumed that fertility would only decline when urbanization, industrialization, and income reached a certain level. It is now known that appropriate policies can effectively reduce fertility even in the absence of economic advancement. Fertility declines are more closely related to increases in literacy and life expectancy than to increases in the gross national product. Family planning programs in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Korea, Sri Lanka, and Tunisia have reduced fertility far below the level normally associated with the income levels prevailing in those countries. PMID:12266357

  8. Growth Kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes in Broth and Beef Frankfurters– Determination of Lag Phase Duration and Exponential Growth Rate under Isothermal Conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of this research was to develop a new kinetic model to describe the isothermal growth of microorganisms. The new model was tested with Listeria monocytogenes in broth and frankfurters, and compared with two commonly used models - Baranyi and modified Gompertz models. Bias factor (BF)...

  9. TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

  10. Flow-driven Delocalization of Populations with Heterogeneous Growth Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David; Succi, Sauro

    2014-03-01

    Growth in controlled laboratory environments such as a Petri dish can be used to study the spatial evolutionary dynamics of microorganisms. However, natural populations often grow up in heterogeneous environments with spatially varying growth rates, and can be subjected to fluid advection as well. Using lattice Boltzmann simulations, we study single species population dynamics subject to constant flows under heterogeneous growth conditions. We show that quenched random growth rates lead to localized growth niches even in the presence of a background fluid flow. Non-equilibrium steady states when the flow velocity is weak exhibit a mixture of localized high-density growth niches and a low-density background mass distribution influenced by extended states of the linearized growth operator. At sufficiently strong advection, however, the growth niches suddenly delocalize to form elongated parallel streaks of order the system size along the flow direction. We discuss the localized and delocalized growth eigenfunctions, as well as a phase transition characterized by a diverging correlation length in the flow direction.

  11. Understanding the size growth of massive galaxies through stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, Ignacio

    2015-08-01

    The growth of massive galaxies remains an open problem. The observational evidence seems to converge on a two-stage scenario, where a compact massive core is formed during an early, intense burst, followed by a more extended process of mass and size growth at intermediate redshift (z<2). This talk focuses on the latter, exploring the growth of massive galaxies through a detailed analysis of the stellar populations in close pairs, to study their formation history. Two surveys are explored (SHARDS and GAMA), probing the stellar populations of pre-merging systems out to z~1.3, and down to a mass ratio ~1:100. We will compare the results between medium band spectral fitting (SHARDS) and those from a more targeted analysis of line strengths in the GAMA data. The combination of the two datasets provide a unique insight of the growth channel of massive galaxies via mergers.

  12. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    PubMed

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources. PMID:16909582

  13. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  14. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  15. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  16. Giving Exponential Functions a Fair Shake

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wanko, Jeffrey J.

    2005-01-01

    This article details an exploration of exponential decay and growth relationships using M&M's and dice. Students collect data for mathematical models and use graphing calculators to make sense of the general form of the exponential functions. (Contains 10 figures and 2 tables.)

  17. Global analysis of population growth and river water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Human-related pressures on river water quality are a concern of global proportions.. However, little is known about the more specific impact of increasing population on river water quality and how it provides a vital environmental reference for water management. Combining global gridded data on population and river discharge with digitized river networks, we conduct numerical simulations to demonstrate the direct impact of population growth on river water quality. Our model traces the transport, dilution, and degradation of anthropogenic organic matter (BOD) emissions into rivers. Spanning the period from the early 20th century to the present, our analysis indicates that the pressure on downstream river networks markedly increased since the population explosion starting in 1950, especially in developing countries. The ratio of population to river discharge reveals the link between impact severity and dilution capacity. In addition, a denser population is found to be correlated with higher impact severity. Consideration of direct population influences on global river water quality becomes limited as society develops and should be studied as a fundamental reference for human-related river water management. Keywords: Population growth, River water quality, Space-time analysis, Human activities, Water Management

  18. The population growth consequences of variation in individual heterozygosity.

    PubMed

    Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Pelletier, Fanie; Clutton-Brock, T H; Pemberton, Josephine M; Coulson, Tim

    2011-01-01

    Heterozygosity has been associated with components of fitness in numerous studies across a wide range of taxa. Because heterozygosity is associated with individual performance it is also expected to be associated with population dynamics. However, investigations into the association between heterozygosity and population dynamics have been rare because of difficulties in linking evolutionary and ecological processes. The choice of heterozygosity measure is a further issue confounding such studies as it can be biased by individual differences in the frequencies of the alleles studied, the number of alleles at each locus as well as the total number of loci typed. In this study, we first examine the differences between the principal metrics used to calculate heterozygosity using long-term data from a marked population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Next, by means of statistical transformation of the homozygosity weighted by loci index, we determine how heterozygosity contributes to population growth in Soay sheep by modelling individual contributions to population growth (p(t(i))) as a function of several covariates, including sex, weight and faecal egg count--a surrogate of parasitic nematode burden in the gut. We demonstrate that although heterozygosity is associated with some components of fitness, most notably adult male reproductive success, in general it is only weakly associated with population growth. PMID:21611172

  19. Characterization of the rate-limiting step of the secretion of Bacillus subtilis alpha-amylase overproduced during the exponential phase of growth.

    PubMed

    Leloup, L; Haddaoui el-A; Chambert, R; Petit-Glatron, M F

    1997-10-01

    The Bacillus subtilis alpha-amylase gene, amyE, was expressed under the regulated control of sacR, the levansucrase leader region. The gene fusion including the complete amyE coding sequence with the signal peptide sequence was integrated into the chromosome of a degU32(Hy) strain deleted of the sacB DNA fragment. In this genetic contex, alpha-amylase is produced in the culture supernatant at a high level (2% of total protein) during the exponential phase of growth upon induction by sucrose. Pulse-chase experiments showed that the rate-limiting step (t1/2 = 120 s) of the secretion process is the release of a cell-associated precursor form whose signal peptide has been cleaved. The efficiency of this ultimate step of secretion decreased dramatically in the presence of a metal chelator (EDTA) or when the cells were converted to protoplasts. The hypothesis that this step is tightly coupled with the folding process of alpha-amylase occurring within the cell wall environment was substantiated by in vitro folding studies. The unfolding-folding transition, monitored by the resistance to proteolysis, was achieved within the same time range (t1/2 = 60 s) and required the presence of calcium. This metal requirement could possibly be satisfied in vivo by the integrity of the cell wall. The t1/2 of the alpha-amylase release step is double that of levansucrase, although their folding rates are similar. This perhaps indicates that the passage through the cell wall may depend on parietal properties (e.g. metal ion binding and porosity) and on certain intrinsic properties of the protein (molecular mass and folding properties). PMID:9353930

  20. Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phinney, D. E.; Arp, G. K.

    1978-01-01

    A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

  1. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    PubMed

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result. PMID:12179534

  2. Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

    1981-01-01

    Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables as…

  3. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  4. An American Laboratory: Population Growth and Environmental Quality in California.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McConnell, Robert

    1993-01-01

    Describes the cumulative impact of rapid population growth, industrial and military activity, agriculture, and motor vehicles on California's environmental and social fabric. Discusses these problems in California as a forecast for the nation and test to consensus-based U.S. representative government. (Author/ MCO)

  5. The Educational Effects of Rapid Rural Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Peggy J.; Green, Bernal L.

    Rapid population growth in rural areas has confronted rural communities and particularly rural educational systems with a number of problems. Sudden, large increases in students crowd school facilities and strain budgets. The different values, attitudes, and orientations toward education of the newcomers act as a catalyst for changes and can cause…

  6. An Exceptional Exponential Function

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curgus, Branko

    2006-01-01

    We show that there is a link between a standard calculus problem of finding the best view of a painting and special tangent lines to the graphs of exponential functions. Surprisingly, the exponential function with the "best view" is not the one with the base "e." A similar link is established for families of functions obtained by composing…

  7. How exponential are FREDs?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Bradley E.; Dyson, Samuel E.

    1996-08-01

    A common Gamma-Ray Burst-light curve shape is the ``FRED'' or ``fast-rise exponential-decay.'' But how exponential is the tail? Are they merely decaying with some smoothly decreasing decline rate, or is the functional form an exponential to within the uncertainties? If the shape really is an exponential, then it would be reasonable to assign some physically significant time scale to the burst. That is, there would have to be some specific mechanism that produces the characteristic decay profile. So if an exponential is found, then we will know that the decay light curve profile is governed by one mechanism (at least for simple FREDs) instead of by complex/multiple mechanisms. As such, a specific number amenable to theory can be derived for each FRED. We report on the fitting of exponentials (and two other shapes) to the tails of ten bright BATSE bursts. The BATSE trigger numbers are 105, 257, 451, 907, 1406, 1578, 1883, 1885, 1989, and 2193. Our technique was to perform a least square fit to the tail from some time after peak until the light curve approaches background. We find that most FREDs are not exponentials, although a few come close. But since the other candidate shapes come close just as often, we conclude that the FREDs are misnamed.

  8. Growth curves for ostriches (Struthio camelus) in a Brazilian population.

    PubMed

    Ramos, S B; Caetano, S L; Savegnago, R P; Nunes, B N; Ramos, A A; Munari, D P

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to fit growth curves using nonlinear and linear functions to describe the growth of ostriches in a Brazilian population. The data set consisted of 112 animals with BW measurements from hatching to 383 d of age. Two nonlinear growth functions (Gompertz and logistic) and a third-order polynomial function were applied. The parameters for the models were estimated using the least-squares method and Gauss-Newton algorithm. The goodness-of-fit of the models was assessed using R(2) and the Akaike information criterion. The R(2) calculated for the logistic growth model was 0.945 for hens and 0.928 for cockerels and for the Gompertz growth model, 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. The third-order polynomial fit gave R(2) of 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. Among the Akaike information criterion calculations, the logistic growth model presented the lowest values in this study, both for hens and for cockerels. Nonlinear models are more appropriate for describing the sigmoid nature of ostrich growth. PMID:23243259

  9. An Unusual Exponential Graph

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Syed, M. Qasim; Lovatt, Ian

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an addition to the series of papers on the exponential function begun by Albert Bartlett. In particular, we ask how the graph of the exponential function y = e[superscript -t/t] would appear if y were plotted versus ln t rather than the normal practice of plotting ln y versus t. In answering this question, we find a new way to

  10. An Unusual Exponential Graph

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Syed, M. Qasim; Lovatt, Ian

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an addition to the series of papers on the exponential function begun by Albert Bartlett. In particular, we ask how the graph of the exponential function y = e[superscript -t/t] would appear if y were plotted versus ln t rather than the normal practice of plotting ln y versus t. In answering this question, we find a new way to…

  11. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    PubMed

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be provided to 3 productive sectors: traditional agriculture, small factories producing mass consumption goods, and construction of low income housing. The strategy would promote economic growth and expansion without further deterioration of income distribution, employment, and price stability. A simulation study demonstrated the advantages of such a strategy in relation to alternative strategies. PMID:12266019

  12. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on educating and empowering women in these enclaves. Women are in charge of birth spacing and all aspects of management of energy, food, water and the local environment, more so than men, in most countries. PMID:12284190

  13. Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gendell, Murray

    This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

  14. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  15. Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a single population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, K.; Murphy, E. J.; Loeb, V.; Hewitt, R. P.

    2002-07-01

    Understanding the demographics of Antarctic krill over large scales may be complicated by regional differences in the processes that govern population structure. The influence of regional differences in growth and mortality on population size structure was examined using data on the length-frequency distribution of krill in the Scotia Sea using samples from the South Shetland Islands and South Georgia collected annually from 1991 to 2000. A correction function, which took account of the higher growth rate at South Georgia, produced a consistent similarity in the position of the modal size classes that was not present in the raw data. Optimising the mortality rate, to minimise the differences in the growth corrected length-frequency distribution, suggested a higher mortality rate at South Georgia that the South Shetlands. The intra-specific variations in growth and mortality rates are consistent with published values and with other Euphausiids species. Having accounted for the demographic plasticity, it is apparent that strong recruitment of the smallest size class of krill is represented in both populations simultaneously. It appears that first-year krill are advected into different regions of the Scotia Sea where the resultant population size structure is determined by regional differences in growth and mortality. The majority of the commercial harvest of krill in the Antarctic occurs in a relatively small number of regional fisheries within the Scotia Sea and is managed using population models based on a single set of demographic parameters. Where substantial differences in these parameters exist between fishing areas, the calculation of catch limits should take these differences into account.

  16. Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.

    PubMed

    Gill, M S

    1987-01-01

    Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and upward mobility should be decreased, and 3) nonagriculturalists should be prevented from buying farm land from peasants along main roads and around urban centers. PMID:12179031

  17. Acetate Availability and Utilization Supports the Growth of Mutant Sub-Populations on Aging Bacterial Colonies

    PubMed Central

    Bergman, Jessica M.; Wrande, Marie; Hughes, Diarmaid

    2014-01-01

    When bacterial colonies age most cells enter a stationary phase, but sub-populations of mutant bacteria can continue to grow and accumulate. These sub-populations include bacteria with mutations in rpoB (RNA polymerase β-subunit) or rpoS (RNA polymerase stress-response sigma factor). Here we have identified acetate as a nutrient present in the aging colonies that is utilized by these mutant subpopulations to support their continued growth. Proteome analysis of aging colonies showed that several proteins involved in acetate conversion and utilization were upregulated during aging. Acetate is known to be excreted during the exponential growth phase but can be imported later during the transition to stationary phase and converted to acetyl-CoA. Acetyl-CoA is used in multiple processes, including feeding into the TCA cycle, generating ATP via the glyoxylate shunt, as a source of acetyl groups for protein modification, and to support fatty acid biosynthesis. We showed that deletion of acs (encodes acetyl-CoA synthetase; converts acetate into acetyl-CoA) significantly reduced the accumulation of rpoB and rpoS mutant subpopulations on aging colonies. Measurement of radioactive acetate uptake showed that the rate of conversion decreased in aging wild-type colonies, was maintained at a constant level in the rpoB mutant, and significantly increased in the aging rpoS mutant. Finally, we showed that the growth of subpopulations on aging colonies was greatly enhanced if the aging colony itself was unable to utilize acetate, leaving more acetate available for mutant subpopulations to use. Accordingly, the data show that the accumulation of subpopulations of rpoB and rpoS mutants on aging colonies is supported by the availability in the aging colony of acetate, and by the ability of the subpopulation cells to convert the acetate to acetyl-CoA. PMID:25275605

  18. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water, inadequate tenure agreements, and price setting. Slowing population growth provides time to adjust to expanding production and saving the environment. PMID:12319284

  19. Localization and Extinction of Bacterial Populations under Inhomogeneous Growth Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Anna L.; Mann, Bernward A.; Torres-Oviedo, Gelsy; Lincoln, Bryan; Käs, Josef; Swinney, Harry L.

    2004-01-01

    The transition from localized to systemic spreading of bacteria, viruses, and other agents is a fundamental problem that spans medicine, ecology, biology, and agriculture science. We have conducted experiments and simulations in a simple one-dimensional system to determine the spreading of bacterial populations that occurs for an inhomogeneous environment under the influence of external convection. Our system consists of a long channel with growth inhibited by uniform ultraviolet (UV) illumination except in a small “oasis”, which is shielded from the UV light. To mimic blood flow or other flow past a localized infection, the oasis is moved with a constant velocity through the UV-illuminated “desert”. The experiments are modeled with a convective reaction-diffusion equation. In both the experiment and model, localized or extinct populations are found to develop, depending on conditions, from an initially localized population. The model also yields states where the population grows everywhere. Further, the model reveals that the transitions between localized, extended, and extinct states are continuous and nonhysteretic. However, it does not capture the oscillations of the localized population that are observed in the experiment. PMID:15240446

  20. Age-related changes in the distributions of depressive symptom items in the general population: a cross-sectional study using the exponential distribution model

    PubMed Central

    Kawasaki, Yohei; Ide, Kazuki; Yamada, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Toshiaki A.; Ono, Yutaka

    2016-01-01

    Background. Previous research has reported inconsistent evidence of the trajectory of depressive symptoms across the adult lifespan. We investigated how the distributions of each item score change with age and determined whether the trajectory of depressive symptoms varied with the scoring methods of the questionnaire. Methods. We analyzed data collected from 21,040 subjects who participated in the national survey in Japan. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). The CES-D has 20 items, each of which is scored in four grades of “rarely,” “some,” “much,” and “most of the time.” We used the exponential distribution model which fits the distributions of 16 negative symptom items of CES-D, with the probabilities of “some,” “much,” “most,” and “rarely” expressed as P, Pr, Pr2, and 1 − P × (r2 + r + 1). Results. The distributions of the responses to 16 negative symptom items followed the common exponential model across all age groups. The mean of the estimated parameter r of 16 negative items showed a U-shape pattern, being high during 12–29 years, remaining low during 30–50 years, and then increasing again over 60 years. The trajectory of depressive symptom scores simulating the binary method was different from that of the empirical scores using the Likert method. Conclusions. Our findings show that the increase in the depressive symptoms score during older age is based on the increase of the parameter r. The differences in the scoring method may contribute to the different age-related patterns across the adult lifespan. PMID:26788427

  1. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts of the West African forest belt. There is also the absence of the Green Revolution, i.e., the use of new high yielding seeds and new technologies in agriculture that has led to marked increases in yields in most other parts of the world. A totally different and more productive agriculture might evolve if African governments were to fundamentally change their vision. Existing production technology could allow substantial increases in the yields of many crops if some basic changes were made in the policies affecting agriculture. A way to achieve such change would be to make farming profitable. The effect of population growth in diminishing returns to agriculture also lends urgency to the need for family planning. Generally, population policy in Africa badly needs strengthening. PMID:12264271

  2. Review of "Going Exponential: Growing the Charter School Sector's Best"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia, David

    2011-01-01

    This Progressive Policy Institute report argues that charter schools should be expanded rapidly and exponentially. Citing exponential growth organizations, such as Starbucks and Apple, as well as the rapid growth of molds, viruses and cancers, the report advocates for similar growth models for charter schools. However, there is no explanation of…

  3. Colonization, population growth, and nesting success of Black Oystercatchers following a seismic uplift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gill, V.A.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Lanctot, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    We present data on the colonization of Middleton Island, Alaska, by Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) following the creation of an extensive rocky intertidal zone after the Alaskan earthquake of 1964. The first pair of oystercatchers was detected in 1976, and it was another 5 years before the population increased to three pairs. Oystercatcher numbers increased steadily thereafter, with a population explosion occurring in the 1990s. By 2002, there were 171 territorial pairs on the island. The total number of birds increased from two in 1976 to 718 in 2002. Breeding-pair densities on Middleton Island are the highest recorded for any portion of Alaska, averaging more than 5 pairs per km of shoreline in 2002. Nesting success in 2001 and 2002 was greater (83% or more of the eggs laid hatched) than that reported for any other population of oystercatchers in Alaska or along the Pacific Coast. We attribute this exponential growth rate and exceptionally high reproductive success to the large area of available and suitable habitat, the low number of avian predators and the complete lack of mammalian predators, low rate of nest loss to high tides and storm surges, and a low level of human disturbance. We propose nominating Middleton Island as a regional Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network site because a high percentage of the world's and region's population of Black Oystercatchers resides there during the breeding season. Further, since Middleton Island may be the single most important site in Alaska for Black Oystercatchers, we suggest it be protected from future development.

  4. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic analysis.

  5. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983-2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (??); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of ?? during 1983-2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972-1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008-1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of ?? that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding ??. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and ?? provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic analysis.

  6. Population growth and the demographic transition in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Wortham, R A

    1993-06-01

    Population growth is traced in Kenya for the periods 1895 to 1948 and 1948 to 1992. Analysis of Kenya's recent fertility patterns is based on the processes in demographic transition and on studies by Petersen, Caldwell, and Chenais. The transition stages are identified as follows: the predevelopment stage during 1895-1921, the underdeveloped stage during 1921-77, the stabilization of the high rate of natural population increase during 1977-90, and the entrance into the transition or developing stage from the 1980s to the present. The expectation is that the transition will continue to 2010. A complete transition by 2025 requires an annual population growth rate of 1%. Fertility patterns during 1977-89 revealed a reduction in the total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.2 children. The TFR in 1989 among currently married women aged 15-49 years with no formal education was 7.2 children. Women with secondary education had a TFR of 4.9 children. Urban women had a TFR of 4.8 children, while rural women had a TFR of 7.1 children. The ideal family size in 1989 was 4.4 children, which is a decline of 1.4 children from 1984. Ideal family size among currently married women aged 20-24 years was 3.9. Structural changes occurred since 1967, whereby annual economic growth rates exceeded population growth rates. High fertility levels are supported by the traditional role of women in satisfying subsistence needs, and the use of children for farm labor, social security, and access to the land. Family structural changes (an increased number of households headed by females) may lead to lower fertility because of the high costs of child rearing. The declines among urban polygamous marriages and women with no formal education may not reduce fertility. Decreased rotation of intercourse among polygynous women could mean increases in fertility. Monogamous unions tend to have higher fertility than polygamous unions. Marriage may have a lesser impact on fertility regulation, if marriage age and the number of single women increases. Traditional religious beliefs may not have the usual impact, since contraceptive use increased during 1977-89. 16.7% of Islam followers and 25.8-29.3% of Christians used contraception. Nonuse is attributed to lack of knowledge or access. PMID:12179893

  7. Sameness of age cohorts in the mathematics of population growth.

    PubMed

    Akkerman, A

    1994-01-01

    "Considering age groups as part of cohorts, implicit in LLM [a Leslie-Lotka finitist model], causes difficulty, manifested by the extensionality paradox. The proposition made here was that cohorts are empirical temporal entities, while age groups are theoretical entities, references only. Cohort is a multitude of persons born at the same time interval, throughout the totality of their lives. Age group, on the other hand, is a concept only, constituted by the notion of the age interval....A model of household and population growth based on the household composition matrix yields results that are inherently different from these of LLM." PMID:12288632

  8. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    PubMed

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction. PMID:12307191

  9. Population growth and land use in Nepal: "the great turnabout".

    PubMed

    Hrabovszky, J P; Miyan, K

    1987-08-01

    Historically, Nepal has demonstrated a "great turnabout" trend, in which initial immigration from the lowland areas to the mountains has been replaced by accelerating migration from the hills to the plains. The reason for this reversal has been a rapid growth in population within the confines of limited availability of potentially cultivable land. Given Nepal's slow economic development, the overwhelming majority of increases in population have to be accommodated within the agricultural sector, on which 83% of Nepal's households are dependent. Fundamental land use issues in Nepal include rapid achievement of the final limit of land suitability for cultivation and the speed at which land can be brought into cultivation. The Government of Nepal has developed the objectives of increased food production to provide a satisfactory diet for the population, increased per capita income, improved regional balance in income and development, conservation of natural resources such as land and forests, and overall development of the economy through income generation, export earnings, and release of agricultural labor to other sectors. 3 perspective studies have identified a number of policies and programs that could bring Nepal closer to these goals. These studies analyzed potential land use development, agricultural production, and food availability by the year 2005. Most essential is the need to intensify land use not only in crop agriculture, but also grasslands and forest use. Land must be allocated to uses that represent the most productive use of that land without being degrading. Technologies are available for land use in each of the main types of uses--crop agriculture, livestock, and forests--that can provide protection against land degradation. Finally, irrigation is a key element in raising agricultural output. Close cooperation between the government and the people is crucial for the success of the task of finding a balance between population growth and its demand for services of the land. PMID:12281524

  10. [Environmental pollution and population growth in Latin America].

    PubMed

    Viel, B

    1983-01-01

    3 factors are always involved in causation of infectious disease: the causal organism, an adverse environment, and nutritional status. As knowledge of degenerative and mental illnesses advances, their relationship to environmental problems becomes clearer. Health in the human being as in all living things is the product of ecological equilibrium. In countries with high mortality rates, the majority of deaths occur in the early years of life. Countries enjoying low mortality rates are those that have protected themselves against environmental deterioration. The Roman civilization, the 1st to have large cities, built aqueducts to protect the water supply from contamination. With the disappearance of the Roman Empire the concern for purity of the water supply also disappeared, and the cities of the Middle Ages became breeding grounds for epidemics. In the early 19th century John Snow demonstrated the role of water in the transmission of cholera and thereafter the concern with potable water and sewage disposal was reborn. The Industrial Revolution eventually allowed sufficient accumulation of wealth to permit improved nutrition. Environmental sanitation and improved food supply produced a new ecological equilibrium, and Western Europe began to have lower and lower mortality rates. Paralleling the decline in deaths a new spirit of responsible parenthood and delayed marriage was lowering birth rates. Population growth, which never exceeded 1%, had the additional escape valve of emigration to America and Australia. The true cause of environmental degradation is man. When human beings were few their contaminants were readily obsorbed by the environment, but as they proliferate the environment is increasingly unable to absorb their pollution by natural processes. Industrial fumes, deforestation, and polluted rivers are only the symptoms of contamination. In the developed countries, technological innovations minimizing industrial pollution and lower population growth are helping to combat environmental degradation, but in Latin America, population control has not yet taken hold and antipollution measures are not implemented because of their high cost. High fertility has always characterized Latin American since colonial days, but until the 20th century it was balanced by high mortality. Largely because of the progressive control of disease, the population increased from some 87 million in 1920 to 212 million by 1960, and may arrive at 650 million by 2000. In just 30 years Latin America was able to reduce mortality to under 10/1000, a process requiring 300 years in the developed world. In Latin America mortality reduction was achieved by medical means and not by environmental improvements. Despite the obious problems caused by rapid population growth, most governments in the region persist in supporting pronatalist policies and legislation. PMID:12313223

  11. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  12. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of the issues and increased divisiveness among environmentalists, feminists, and population control advocates. The current justification of US population program assistance is based on concern for the health of women and children. Future changes will be dependent on ideology, theology, and political philosophy. PMID:12346346

  13. Defining and explaining tropical deforestation: shifting cultivation and population growth in colonial Madagascar (1896-1940).

    PubMed

    Jarosz, L

    1993-10-01

    The case study of deforestation in Madagascar demonstrated how deforestation is a complex phenomenon that reflects interconnections between land-based resources, human groups, and global political economy; specifically, there is a link between changing land use practices affecting shifting cultivation and tropical deforestation. The general development model of exponential population growth and shifting cultivation causing deforestation and environmental degradation is too simplified, places undue blame on the victims, and isolates shifting cultivation practices from the reality of land use patterns in specific places at specific times. Problematic also is the way definition, delimitation, and discussion of environmental problems shapes possible solutions. This analysis suggests a theoretical view that links reconstructed regional geography with political ecology. The assertion is that deforestation is historically based on multiple social processes within Madagascar. Land use practices and resource access decisions during the colonial period affected land management and degradation. The colonial state policy played a role in the destruction of tropical flora by fire, shifting cultivation, and grazing, and the responses of Europeans and Malagasys. Context and multiplicity of motivations and practices were key. A review was presented of reconstructed regional geography and political ecology and global tropical deforestation. The description of the political economy of deforestation during colonial times focused on the movement of population into the forests after 1896 and French annexation. Famine resulted. Shifting cultivation laws were passed between 1881 and 1913, due to the desire for rational forest resource management. Ecologically and socially these rules were difficult to enforce; there were resistance due to the threat of the elimination of subsistence living for wage work. Destructive logging practices and forest product extraction after 1921 are described. During 1900-1941, population was below or at replacement level, but the government still blamed Malagasys. Shifting cultivation meant different things to the subsistence farmers, the state, and international agencies. Denial of context promotes an ideology of repression, fuels fear and prejudice, and promotes the wrong solutions. PMID:12318844

  14. Density but not climate affects the population growth rate of guanacos ( Lama guanicoe) (Artiodactyla, Camelidae)

    PubMed Central

    Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the effects of population density and climatic variables on the rate of population growth in the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe), a wild camelid species in South America. We used a time series of 36 years (1977-2012) of population sampling in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Individuals were grouped in three age-classes: newborns, juveniles, and adults; for each year a female population transition matrix was constructed, and the population growth rate (λ) was estimated for each year as the matrix highest positive eigenvalue. We applied a regression analysis with finite population growth rate (λ) as dependent variable, and total guanaco population, sheep population, annual mean precipitation, and winter mean temperature as independent variables, with and without time lags. The effect of guanaco population size was statistically significant, but the effects of the sheep population and the climatic variables on guanaco population growth rate were not statistically significant. PMID:25187878

  15. Food shortages in sub-Saharan Africa and population growth.

    PubMed

    Munisi, S E

    1982-12-01

    Food problems faced by sub-Saharan African nations center around the widening gap between food needs and availablity. Food shortages are suggested to originate from poor distribution and as a result of natural disasters; not as a consequence of population growth. Imperialism, colonialism, and neocolonial exploitation has encouraged African economic and cultural backwardness; a situation in which high population growth can have grave consequences. Fertility control is promoted by industrialized governments as a means of solving socioeconomic problems. However, fertility control may not be justified in many African nations which experience high infant mortality and labor intensive agriculture. Although the number of people who can be fed in any circumstance is ultimately finite, Africa's situation could be improved. If presently uninhabitable land was made suitable for settlement, land shortage from overpopulation would not be problematic for a long time. Modernization of agricultural practices could have a substantial impact of food production. At present, innovations are largely associated with the production of export crops which has often necessitated food imports. Food aid for relief in emergencies or for support of regions with chronic shortages is appropriate and beneficial, however, in some cases food aid can be detrimental, e.g., by lowering food prices thus burdening small farmers. Food aid tends to create dependency, not self-sufficiency. Malnutrition and hunger are symptoms of underdevelopment. At the policy level, a food and nutrition strategy should include rural development designed to improve income redistribution, agricultural modernization, and measures to influence the production of various foods to ensure a balanced diet, and nutrition and health intervention programs for vulnerable groups. In addition to overall agricultural development, 2 general recommendations are offered: increased production of staple food stuffs and a concentrated effort to improve small farms. PMID:12264793

  16. The evolutionary demography of ecological change: linking trait variation and population growth.

    PubMed

    Pelletier, Fanie; Clutton-Brock, Tim; Pemberton, Josephine; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2007-03-16

    Population dynamics and evolutionary change are linked by the fundamental biological processes of birth and death. This means that population growth may correlate with the strength of selection, whereas evolutionary change can leave an ecological signature. We decompose population growth in an age-structured population into contributions from variation in a quantitative trait. We report that the distribution of body sizes within a population of Soay sheep can markedly influence population dynamics, accounting for up to one-fifth of observed population growth. Our results suggest that there is substantial opportunity for evolutionary dynamics to leave an ecological signature and visa versa. PMID:17363672

  17. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    PubMed

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples lives. PMID:12322589

  18. An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, M.G.; Powell, L.A.; Hines, R.K.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

  19. Contribution of population growth to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan, 1880-1970.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, M; Kennedy, G

    1984-09-01

    The authors measured the positive and negative contributions of population and labor force growth to the growth of per capita income and sectoral output in Japan in the 1880-1970 period. A 2-sector growth accounting model that treats population and labor growth as separate variables was used. 3 alternative methods were used: the Residual method, the Verdoorn method, and the factor augmenting rate method. The total contribution of population cum labor growth to per capita income growth tended to be negative in the 1880-1930 period and positive in the 1930-40 and 1950-70. Over the 1880-1970 period as a whole, population cum labor growth made a positive contribution to per capita income growth under the Residual method (0.35%/year), the factor augmenting rate method (0.29%/year), and the Verdoorn method (0.01%/year). In addition, population cum labor growth contributed positively to sectoral output growth. The average contribution to agricultural output growth ranged from 1.03% (Verdoorn) - 1.46%/year (factor augmenting rate), while the average contribution to nonagricultural output growth ranged from 1.22% (Verdoorn) - 1.60%/year (Residual). Although these results are dependent on the model used, the fact that all 3 methods yielded consistent results suggests that population cum labor growth did make a positive contribution to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan. These findings imply that in economies where the rate of technical change in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors exceeds population growth, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities may be preferable; on the other hand, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities are to be avoided in economies with low rates of technical change. Moreover, in the early stages of economic development, policies that increase agricultural income and price elasticities should be considered. PMID:12340109

  20. New explicit expressions for relative frequencies of single-nucleotide polymorphisms with application to statistical inference on population growth.

    PubMed Central

    Polanski, A; Kimmel, M

    2003-01-01

    We present new methodology for calculating sampling distributions of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies in populations with time-varying size. Our approach is based on deriving analytical expressions for frequencies of SNPs. Analytical expressions allow for computations that are faster and more accurate than Monte Carlo simulations. In contrast to other articles showing analytical formulas for frequencies of SNPs, we derive expressions that contain coefficients that do not explode when the genealogy size increases. We also provide analytical formulas to describe the way in which the ascertainment procedure modifies SNP distributions. Using our methods, we study the power to test the hypothesis of exponential population expansion vs. the hypothesis of evolution with constant population size. We also analyze some of the available SNP data and we compare our results of demographic parameters estimation to those obtained in previous studies in population genetics. The analyzed data seem consistent with the hypothesis of past population growth of modern humans. The analysis of the data also shows a very strong sensitivity of estimated demographic parameters to changes of the model of the ascertainment procedure. PMID:14504247

  1. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  2. A Population Growth Trend Analysis for Neotricula aperta, the Snail Intermediate Host of Schistosoma mekongi, after Construction of the Pak-Mun Dam

    PubMed Central

    Attwood, Stephen W.; Upatham, E. Suchart

    2013-01-01

    Background The Pak-Mun dam is a controversial hydro-power project on the Mun River in Northeast Thailand. The dam is sited in a habitat of the freshwater snail Neotricula aperta, which is the intermediate host for the parasitic blood-fluke Schistosoma mekongi causing Mekong schistosomiasis in humans in Cambodia and Laos. Few data are available which can be used to assess the effects of water resource development on N. aperta. The aim of this study was to obtain data and to analyze the possible impact of the dam on N. aperta population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings Estimated population densities were recorded for an N. aperta population in the Mun River 27 km upstream of Pak-Mun, from 1990 to 2011. The Pak-Mul dam began to operate in 1994. Population growth was modeled using a linear mixed model expression of a modified Gompertz stochastic state-space exponential growth model. The N. aperta population was found to be quite stable, with the estimated growth parameter not significantly different from zero. Nevertheless, some marked changes in snail population density were observed which were coincident with changes in dam operation policy. Conclusions/Significance The study found that there has been no marked increase in N. aperta population growth following operation of the Pak-Mun dam. The analysis did indicate a large and statistically significant increase in population density immediately after the dam came into operation; however, this increase was not persistent. The study has provided the first vital baseline data on N. aperta population behavior near to the Pak-Mun dam and suggests that the operation policy of the dam may have an impact on snail population density. Nevertheless, additional studies are required for other N. aperta populations in the Mun River and for an extended time series, to confirm or refine the findings of this work. PMID:24244775

  3. Inferring Very Recent Population Growth Rate from Population-Scale Sequencing Data: Using a Large-Sample Coalescent Estimator.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hua; Hey, Jody; Chen, Kun

    2015-11-01

    Large-sample or population-level sequencing data provide unprecedented opportunities for inferring detailed population histories, especially recent demographic histories. On the other hand, it challenges most existing population genetic methods: Simulation-based approaches require intensive computation, and analytical approaches are often numerically intractable when the sample size is large. We propose a computationally efficient method for simultaneous estimation of population size, the rate, and onset time of population growth in the very recent history, using the pattern of the total number of segregating sites as a function of sample size. Coalescent simulation shows that it can accurately and efficiently estimate the parameters of recent population growth from large-scale data. This approach has the flexibility to model population history with multiple growth stages or other epochs, and it is robust when the sample size is very large or at the population scale, for which the Kingman's coalescent assumption is not valid. This approach is applied to recently published data and estimates the recent population growth rate in the European population to be 1.49% with the onset time 7.26 ka, and the rate in the African population to be 0.735% with the onset time 10.01 ka. PMID:26187437

  4. Exponentiated power Lindley distribution.

    PubMed

    Ashour, Samir K; Eltehiwy, Mahmoud A

    2015-11-01

    A new generalization of the Lindley distribution is recently proposed by Ghitany et al. [1], called as the power Lindley distribution. Another generalization of the Lindley distribution was introduced by Nadarajah et al. [2], named as the generalized Lindley distribution. This paper proposes a more generalization of the Lindley distribution which generalizes the two. We refer to this new generalization as the exponentiated power Lindley distribution. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely well-known distributions in addition to the above two models, such as the Lindley distribution among many others. It also provides more flexibility to analyze complex real data sets. We study some statistical properties for the new distribution. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution parameters. Least square estimation is used to evaluate the parameters. Three algorithms are proposed for generating random data from the proposed distribution. An application of the model to a real data set is analyzed using the new distribution, which shows that the exponentiated power Lindley distribution can be used quite effectively in analyzing real lifetime data. PMID:26644927

  5. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  6. q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration.

    PubMed

    Malacarne, L C; Mendes, R S; Lenzi, E K

    2002-01-01

    Usually, the studies of distributions of city populations have been reduced to power laws. In such analyses, a common practice is to consider cities with more than one hundred thousand inhabitants. Here, we argue that the distribution of cities for all ranges of populations can be well described by using a q-exponential distribution. This function, which reproduces the Zipf-Mandelbrot law, is related to the generalized nonextensive statistical mechanics and satisfies an anomalous decay equation. PMID:11800823

  7. Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate.

    PubMed

    Hone, Jim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

    2007-03-01

    1. The aim of this study was to derive and evaluate a priori models of the relationship between annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) and climate. These were derived from the numerical response of annual r and food, and the effect of climate on a parameter in the numerical response. The goodness of fit of a range of such deductive models to data on annual r of Soay sheep and red deer were evaluated using information-theoretic (AICc-based) analyses. 2. The analysis for sheep annual r showed negative effects of abundance and negative effects of the interaction of abundance and climate, measured as March rainfall (and winter NAO) in the best fitting models. The analysis for deer annual r showed a negative effect of deer abundance and a positive effect of climate measured as March rainfall (but a negative effect of winter NAO), but no interaction of abundance and climate in the best fitting models. 3. There was most support in the analysis of sheep dynamics for the ratio numerical response and the assumption that parameter J (equilibrium food per animal) was influenced by climate. In the analysis of deer dynamics there was most support for the numerical responses assuming effects of food and density (Ivlev and density, food and density, and additive responses) and slightly less support for the ratio numerical response. The evaluation of such models would be aided by the collection of and incorporation of food data into the analyses. PMID:17302843

  8. Extreme natural hazards: population growth, globalization and environmental change.

    PubMed

    Huppert, Herbert E; Sparks, R Stephen J

    2006-08-15

    Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur. PMID:16844639

  9. MECHANISMS OF FLUID SHEAR-INDUCED INHIBITION OF POPULATION GROWTH IN A RED-TIDE DINOFLAGELLATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Net population growth of some dinoflagellates is inhibited by fluid shear at shear stresses comparable with those generated during oceanic turbulence. Decreased net growth may occur through lowered cell division, increased mortality, or both. The dominant mechanism under various ...

  10. Using Spreadsheets To Model Population Growth, Competition and Predation in Nature.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Ashley J. R.

    1999-01-01

    Describes how to place mathematical equations modeling population growth into a spreadsheet that performs calculations quickly and easily. Suggests experiments that can be performed with the spreadsheets. (WRM)

  11. Phage cocktail to control the exponential growth of normal flora in processed sputum specimens grown overnight in liquid medium for rapid TB diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Vanaja; Balaji, S; Gomathi, N S; Venkatesan, P; Sekar, Gomathi; Jayasankar, K; Narayanan, P R

    2007-03-01

    The mechanical pressure exerted during centrifugation and the chemical pressure experienced when sputum specimens are processed, leave the tubercle bacilli in the sputum unsuitable for rapid detection especially in phage based assays. Thus, growing Mycobacterium tuberculosis in broth, at least overnight, is mandatory for allowing the tubercle bacilli to recoup. During this time the surviving colonizing flora grow faster and overgrow tubercle bacilli interfering with TB diagnosis. In the present study normal flora surviving the action of 4% NaOH was isolated and characterized. Phages capable of killing 14 different species representing this normal flora were isolated from soil and sewage samples and characterized. A novel and bio-friendly approach to treat sputum samples with a cocktail of three phages capable of killing most of the 14 representative organisms and not infecting mycobacteria is explored to control the overgrowth of colonizing bacteria in broth culture. While 26 of the 100 sputum samples processed by modified Petroff's procedure showed growth of colonizing flora on blood agar, all of them when grown in broth overnight showed mixed, confluent growth. The addition of phagebiotics controlled them all, showing a significant reduction in colony forming units but resulting in few discrete colonies in 54 samples. Isolation of phages capable of controlling these surviving organisms and including them in the phagebiotics mixture should lead to the control of colonizing bacteria effectively. PMID:17173989

  12. The petroleum exponential (again)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Peter M.

    The U.S. production and reserves of liquid and gaseous petroleum have declined since 1960, at least in the lower 48 states. This decline stems from decreased discovery rates, as predicted by M. King Hubbert in the mid-1950's. Hubbert's once unpopular views were based on statistical analysis of the production history of the petroleum industry, and now, even with inclusion of the statistical perturbation caused by the Prudhoe Bay-North Alaskan Slope discovery (the largest oil field ever found in the United States), it seems clear again that production is following the exponential curve to depletion of the resource—to the end of the ultimate yield of petroleum from wells in the United States.In a recent report, C. Hall and C. Cleveland of Cornell University show that large atypical discoveries, such as the Prudhoe Bay find, are but minor influences on what now appears to be the crucial intersection of two exponentials [Science, 211, 576-579, 1981]: the production-per-drilled-foot curve of Hubbert, which crosses zero production no later than the year 2005; the other, a curve that plots the energy cost of drilling and extraction with time; that is, the cost-time rate of how much oil is used to drill and extract oil from the ground. The intersection, if no other discoveries the size of the Prudhoe Bay field are made, could be as early as 1990, the end of the present decade. The inclusion of each Prudhoe-Bay-size find extends the year of intersection by only about 6 years. Beyond that point, more than one barrel of petroleum would be expended for each barrel extracted from the ground. The oil exploration-extraction and refining industry is currently the second most energy-intensive industry in the U.S., and the message seems clear. Either more efficient drilling and production techniques are discovered, or domestic production will cease well before the end of this century if the Hubbert analysis modified by Hall and Cleveland is correct.

  13. Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change: C - Case Study of India. Asian Population Studies Series No. 23.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok (Thailand).

    This report, the third in a series of five reports of the Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change, describes a study of the two states of India (Punjaband and Orissa) which attempted to clarify the relationship between population pressure and agricultural change through a time series analysis. This study: (1) outlines trends…

  14. Exponential random simplicial complexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuev, Konstantin; Eisenberg, Or; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2015-11-01

    Exponential random graph models have attracted significant research attention over the past decades. These models are maximum-entropy ensembles subject to the constraints that the expected values of a set of graph observables are equal to given values. Here we extend these maximum-entropy ensembles to random simplicial complexes, which are more adequate and versatile constructions to model complex systems in many applications. We show that many random simplicial complex models considered in the literature can be casted as maximum-entropy ensembles under certain constraints. We introduce and analyze the most general random simplicial complex ensemble {\\boldsymbol{? }} with statistically independent simplices. Our analysis is simplified by the observation that any distribution {{P}}(O) on any collection of objects {O}=\\{O\\}, including graphs and simplicial complexes, is maximum-entropy subject to the constraint that the expected value of -{ln}{{P}}(O) is equal to the entropy of the distribution. With the help of this observation, we prove that ensemble {\\boldsymbol{? }} is maximum-entropy subject to the two types of constraints which fix the expected numbers of simplices and their boundaries.

  15. OPINION: Safe exponential manufacturing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phoenix, Chris; Drexler, Eric

    2004-08-01

    In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre-scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of exponential manufacturing, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity, which in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self-replication. Early proposals for artificial nanomachinery focused on small self-replicating machines, discussing their potential productivity and their potential destructiveness if abused. In the light of controversy regarding scenarios based on runaway replication (so-called 'grey goo'), a review of current thinking regarding nanotechnology-based manufacturing is in order. Nanotechnology-based fabrication can be thoroughly non-biological and inherently safe: such systems need have no ability to move about, use natural resources, or undergo incremental mutation. Moreover, self-replication is unnecessary: the development and use of highly productive systems of nanomachinery (nanofactories) need not involve the construction of autonomous self-replicating nanomachines. Accordingly, the construction of anything resembling a dangerous self-replicating nanomachine can and should be prohibited. Although advanced nanotechnologies could (with great difficulty and little incentive) be used to build such devices, other concerns present greater problems. Since weapon systems will be both easier to build and more likely to draw investment, the potential for dangerous systems is best considered in the context of military competition and arms control.

  16. Population divergence in compensatory growth responses and their costs in sticklebacks

    PubMed Central

    Ab Ghani, Nurul Izza; Meril, Juha

    2015-01-01

    Compensatory growth (CG) may be an adaptive mechanism that helps to restore an organisms growth trajectory and adult size from deviations caused by early life resource limitation. Yet, few studies have investigated the genetic basis of CG potential and existence of genetically based population differentiation in CG potential. We studied population differentiation, genetic basis, and costs of CG potential in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) differing in their normal growth patterns. As selection favors large body size in pond and small body size in marine populations, we expected CG to occur in the pond but not in the marine population. By manipulating feeding conditions (viz. high, low and recovery feeding treatments), we found clear evidence for CG in the pond but not in the marine population, as well as evidence for catch-up growth (i.e., size compensation without growth acceleration) in both populations. In the marine population, overcompensation occurred individuals from the recovery treatment grew eventually larger than those from the high feeding treatment. In both populations, the recovery feeding treatment reduced maturation probability. The recovery feeding treatment also reduced survival probability in the marine but not in the pond population. Analysis of interpopulation hybrids further suggested that both genetic and maternal effects contributed to the population differences in CG. Hence, apart from demonstrating intrinsic costs for recovery growth, both genetic and maternal effects were identified to be important modulators of CG responses. The results provide an evidence for adaptive differentiation in recovery growth potential. PMID:25628860

  17. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: fluctuations in population growth rate reduce effective population size in chinook salmon.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Jensen, David W; McClure, Michelle

    2010-03-01

    We empirically assess the relationship between population growth rate (lambda, a parameter central to ecology) and effective population size (N(e), a key parameter in evolutionary biology). Recent theoretical and numerical studies indicate that in semelparous species with variable age at maturity (such as Pacific salmon, many monocarpic plants, and various other species), differences in mean reproductive success among individuals reproducing in different years leads to variation in lambda, and this in turn can reduce N(e). However, this phenomenon has received little empirical evaluation. We examined time series of abundance data for 56 populations of chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) from the northwestern United States and compared N(e) (calculated from demographic data) with the total number of spawners each generation (NT). Important results include: (1) The mean multigenerational ratio N(e)/N(T) was 0.64 (median = 0.67), indicating that annual variation in lambda reduces effective population size in chinook salmon by an average of approximately 35%. These reductions are independent of, and in addition to, factors that reduce N(e) within individual cohorts (uneven sex ratio and greater-than-random variance in reproductive success). (2) The coefficient of variation of lambda was the most important factor associated with reductions in N(e), explaining up to two-thirds of the variance in N(e)/N(T). (3) Within individual generations, N(e) was lower when there was a negative correlation between annual N(i) and lambda, i.e., when relatively few breeders produced relatively high numbers of offspring. Our results thus highlight an important and little-studied eco-evolutionary trade-off: density-dependent compensation has generally favorable ecological consequences (promoting stability and long-term viability) but incurs an evolutionary cost (reducing N(e) because a few individuals make a disproportionate genetic contribution). (4) For chinook salmon, N(eH) (an estimator based on the harmonic mean number of breeders per year) is generally a good proxy for true N(e) and requires much less data to calculate. PMID:20426347

  18. Taking Exception. Reduced mortality leads to population growth: an inconvenient truth.

    PubMed

    Shelton, James D

    2014-05-01

    Reduced mortality has been the predominant cause of the marked global population growth over the last 3/4 of a century. While improved child survival increases motivation to reduce fertility, it comes too little and too late to forestall substantial population growth. And, beyond motivation, couples need effective means to control their fertility. It is an inconvenient truth that reducing child mortality contributes considerably to the population growth destined to compromise the quality of life of many, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Vigorous child survival programming is of course imperative. Wide access to voluntary family planning can help mitigate that growth and provide many other benefits. PMID:25276571

  19. A Photometer for Measuring Population Growth in Yeast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tatina, Robert; Hartley, Tamela; Thomas, Danita

    1999-01-01

    Describes the construction and use of an inexpensive, portable photometer designed specifically for estimating population sizes in yeast cultures. Suggests activities for use with the photometer. (WRM)

  20. D-Alanylation of Teichoic Acids and Loss of Poly-N-Acetyl Glucosamine in Staphylococcus aureus during Exponential Growth Phase Enhance IL-12 Production in Murine Dendritic Cells

    PubMed Central

    Lund, Lisbeth Drozd; Ingmer, Hanne; Frøkiær, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen that has evolved very efficient immune evading strategies leading to persistent colonization. During different stages of growth, S. aureus express various surface molecules, which may affect the immune stimulating properties, but very little is known about their role in immune stimulation and evasion. Depending on the growth phase, S. aureus may affect antigen presenting cells differently. Here, the impact of growth phases and the surface molecules lipoteichoic acid, peptidoglycan and poly-N-acetyl glucosamine on the induction of IL-12 imperative for an efficient clearance of S. aureus was studied in dendritic cells (DCs). Exponential phase (EP) S. aureus was superior to stationary phase (SP) bacteria in induction of IL-12, which required actin-mediated endocytosis and endosomal acidification. Moreover, addition of staphylococcal cell wall derived peptidoglycan to EP S. aureus stimulated cells increased bacterial uptake but abrogated IL-12 induction, while addition of lipoteichoic acid increased IL-12 production but had no effect on the bacterial uptake. Depletion of the capability to produce poly-N-acetyl glucosamine increased the IL-12 inducing activity of EP bacteria. Furthermore, the mutant dltA unable to produce D-alanylated teichoic acids failed to induce IL-12 but like peptidoglycan and the toll-like receptor (TLR) ligands LPS and Pam3CSK4 the mutant stimulated increased macropinocytosis. In conclusion, the IL-12 response by DCs against S. aureus is highly growth phase dependent, relies on cell wall D-alanylation, endocytosis and subsequent endosomal degradation, and is abrogated by receptor induced macropinocytosis. PMID:26872029

  1. Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

    This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

  2. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    PubMed

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism. PMID:26003308

  3. On the Matrix Exponential Function

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hou, Shui-Hung; Hou, Edwin; Pang, Wan-Kai

    2006-01-01

    A novel and simple formula for computing the matrix exponential function is presented. Specifically, it can be used to derive explicit formulas for the matrix exponential of a general matrix A satisfying p(A) = 0 for a polynomial p(s). It is ready for use in a classroom and suitable for both hand as well as symbolic computation.

  4. Impacts of Hispanic Population Growth on Rural Wages. Agricultural Economic Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newman, Constance

    Although earnings generally increased in rural areas in the 1990s, Hispanic population growth led to lower wages for at least one segment of the rural population--workers with a high school degree (skilled workers), particularly men in this skill group. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Current Population Survey, this report…

  5. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    PubMed Central

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  6. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    PubMed

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  7. Effects of Climate Change on Plant Population Growth Rate and Community Composition Change

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots—Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)—that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change. PMID:26039073

  8. Understanding contributions of cohort effects to growth rates of fluctuating populations.

    PubMed

    Wittmer, Heiko U; Powell, Roger A; King, Carolyn M

    2007-09-01

    1. Understanding contributions of cohort effects to variation in population growth of fluctuating populations is of great interest in evolutionary biology and may be critical in contributing towards wildlife and conservation management. Cohort-specific contributions to population growth can be evaluated using age-specific matrix models and associated elasticity analyses. 2. We developed age-specific matrix models for naturally fluctuating populations of stoats Mustela erminea in New Zealand beech forests. Dynamics and productivity of stoat populations in this environment are related to the 3-5 year masting cycle of beech trees and consequent effects on the abundance of rodents. 3. The finite rate of increase (lambda) of stoat populations in New Zealand beech forests varied substantially, from 1.98 during seedfall years to 0.58 during post-seedfall years. Predicted mean growth rates for stoat populations in continuous 3-, 4- or 5-year cycles are 0.85, 1.00 and 1.13. The variation in population growth was a consequence of high reproductive success of females during seedfall years combined with low survival and fertility of females of the post-seedfall cohort. 4. Variation in population growth was consistently more sensitive to changes in survival rates both when each matrix was evaluated in isolation and when matrices were linked into cycles. Relative contributions to variation in population growth from survival and fertility, especially in 0-1-year-old stoats, also depend on the year of the cycle and the number of transitional years before a new cycle is initiated. 5. Consequently, management strategies aimed at reducing stoat populations that may be best during one phase of the beech seedfall cycle may not be the most efficient during other phases of the cycle. We suggest that management strategies based on elasticities of vital rates need to consider how population growth rates vary so as to meet appropriate economic and conservation targets. PMID:17714273

  9. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Christopher N.; Brook, Barry W.

    2011-01-01

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene. PMID:21561972

  10. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Christopher N; Brook, Barry W

    2011-12-22

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene. PMID:21561972

  11. Population growth through history and the escape from the Malthusian trap: a homeostatic simulation model.

    PubMed

    Artzrouni, M; Komlos, J

    1985-01-01

    "A Malthusian simulation model is proposed to describe the growth of human population from the Neolithic through the Industrial Revolution. The economy is composed of a subsistence sector and a capital-producing sector. Our model captures the 'incessant contest' between population growth and the means of subsistence. When the per capita agricultural output falls below a biological minimum, the growth rate of the population is subject, in a random fashion, to perturbations that can take on disastrous proportions." It is suggested that "the slow accumulation of capital (and the buildup of the population of the capital-producing sector) eventually enables the population to overcome the constraints of the hostile economic environment. Our simulations (complete with confidence intervals) yield numerically realistic estimates of the population that eventually escapes from the Malthusian menace and grows unhindered during the Industrial Revolution." (summary in FRE, ITA) PMID:12280407

  12. Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio: a periodic two-sex model approach.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2010-06-01

    We present a new approach to modeling two-sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two-sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency-dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two-sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment. PMID:20408757

  13. World Bank Atlas: Population, Per Capita Product and Growth Rates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    World Bank, Washington, DC.

    The ninth edition of the World Bank Atlas shows estimates of population, gross national product, and per capita production of 189 countries and territories for 1972. The data presented in the atlas are the result of the work of the World Bank Group whose major purpose is to provide both financial and technical assistance and to improve the living…

  14. Calculating the Financial Impact of Population Growth on Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cline, Daniel H.

    It is particularly difficult to make accurate enrollment projections for areas that are experiencing a rapid expansion in their population. The traditional method of calculating cohort survival ratios must be modified and supplemented with additional information to ensure accuracy; cost projection methods require detailed analyses of current costs…

  15. Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

    PubMed

    Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

    2013-01-01

    We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century. PMID:23600253

  16. Exponential approximations in optimal design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belegundu, A. D.; Rajan, S. D.; Rajgopal, J.

    1990-01-01

    One-point and two-point exponential functions have been developed and proved to be very effective approximations of structural response. The exponential has been compared to the linear, reciprocal and quadratic fit methods. Four test problems in structural analysis have been selected. The use of such approximations is attractive in structural optimization to reduce the numbers of exact analyses which involve computationally expensive finite element analysis.

  17. Linking the Population Growth Rate and the Age-at-Death Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Schindler, Susanne; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Coulson, Tim

    2013-01-01

    The population growth rate is linked to the distribution of age at death. We demonstrate that this link arises because both the birth and death rates depend on the variance of age-at-death. This bears the prospect to separate the influences of the age patterns of fertility and mortality on population growth rate. Here, we show how the age pattern of death affects population growth. Using this insight we derive a new approximation of the population growth rate that uses the first and second moments of the age-at-death distribution. We apply our new approximation to 46 mammalian life tables (including humans) and show that it is on par with the most prominent other approximations. PMID:23103877

  18. Is radioactive decay really exponential?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aston, P. J.

    2012-03-01

    Radioactive decay of an unstable isotope is widely believed to be exponential. This view is supported by experiments on rapidly decaying isotopes but is more difficult to verify for slowly decaying isotopes. The decay of 14C can be calibrated over a period of 12550 years by comparing radiocarbon dates with dates obtained from dendrochronology. It is well known that this approach shows that radiocarbon dates of over 3000 years are in error, which is generally attributed to past variation in atmospheric levels of 14C. We note that predicted atmospheric variation (assuming exponential decay) does not agree with results from modelling, and that theoretical quantum mechanics does not predict exact exponential decay. We give mathematical arguments that non-exponential decay should be expected for slowly decaying isotopes and explore the consequences of non-exponential decay. We propose an experimental test of this prediction of non-exponential decay for 14C. If confirmed, a foundation stone of current dating methods will have been removed, requiring a radical reappraisal both of radioisotope dating methods and of currently predicted dates obtained using these methods.

  19. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    PubMed

    Troyer, Elizabeth M; Cameron Devitt, Susan E; Sunquist, Melvin E; Goswami, Varun R; Oli, Madan K

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models. PMID:24901349

  20. [The relationships between population growth and environment: from doctrinal to empirical].

    PubMed

    Tabutin, D; Thiltges, E

    1992-01-01

    This work provides a brief review of changing attitudes toward population growth, the environment, and economic development, and summarizes the major theoretical doctrines concerning the interrelations between rapid population growth and environmental damage and results of research on the topic. The general optimism about the prospects for progress in the Southern hemisphere of the 1950s and 1960s gave way to greater skepticism and recognition of problems in the 1970s. The creation of the UN Population Fund in 1969 and the UN Environmental Program in 1972 reflected increasing concern in the international community about demographic growth and environmental degradation in the south. Economic and social conditions appeared to worsen in the 1980s, with the recession and structural adjustment programs having a disproportionate impact on the most destitute. New integrating concepts and paradigms including that of sustainable development arose in this context of profound crisis in many Third World economics and societies. The most widely accepted position on the connection between population growth and environmental degradation since the late 1970s has been a nuanced neo-Malthusian approach which sees demographic pressure not as the direct cause of environmental problems, but as an aggravating factor. The slowing of population growth is viewed as 1 element in an overall strategy that also includes encouragement of development and elimination of poverty. The extreme positions that rapid population growth is the major cause of environmental degeneration or that population growth has little actual effect on the environment have been largely abandoned. The impact of population growth on the environment can be analyzed at the global, regional, or local level. On the global level, there is agreement that 2 major factors responsible for environmental deterioration are the model of economic development followed in the Northern countries and the poverty of much of the population in the Southern countries. Quantitative studies have been unable to demonstrate at the global level that demographic growth has a primordial effect on the environment. The ecological consequences of poverty cannot be reduced without attacking poverty itself, of which high fertility is but 1 aspect. A growing but still insufficient number of smaller scale studies suggest that demographic growth is not always the major element in environmental damage or in preventable exhaustion of resources. Specific studies are needed on well-defined populations in order to unravel the effects of population growth and other factors. The approach should be systemic and transdisciplinary, depending on a less fragmented vision of reality than that reflected in traditional disciplinary boundaries. PMID:12343873

  1. The environment and population growth: decade for action

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-05-01

    The signs of environmental stress grow as the world's population increases: worn-out farmlands, eroded hillsides, polluted water, parched grasslands, smoke-laden air, depleted ozone, and treeless ranges. Each year about 17 million hectares of tropical forest vanish--an area the size of Tunisia or Uruguay. Fish catches are leveling off. Cities are clogged with refuse. Water and air, instead of sustaining life, cause disease.

  2. Population Change in the Midwest: Nonmetro Population Growth Lags Metro Increase.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goudy, Willis

    2002-01-01

    Midwest population gains in the 1990s were eclipsed by other regions, and nonmetro areas fared worse than metro counties. Less populous and more isolated counties were more likely to lose residents and to lose youth. The Midwest gained Hispanic residents in the 1990s, but numerical increases were much larger in metro counties. Implications for…

  3. Flower Power: Sunflowers as a Model for Logistic Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernandez, Eileen; Geist, Kristi A.

    2011-01-01

    Logistic growth displays an interesting pattern: It starts fast, exhibiting the rapid growth characteristic of exponential models. As time passes, it slows in response to constraints such as limited resources or reallocation of energy. The growth continues to slow until it reaches a limit, called capacity. When the growth describes a population,…

  4. Flower Power: Sunflowers as a Model for Logistic Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernandez, Eileen; Geist, Kristi A.

    2011-01-01

    Logistic growth displays an interesting pattern: It starts fast, exhibiting the rapid growth characteristic of exponential models. As time passes, it slows in response to constraints such as limited resources or reallocation of energy. The growth continues to slow until it reaches a limit, called capacity. When the growth describes a population,

  5. A non-phenomenological model of competition and cooperation to explain population growth behaviors.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano L

    2015-03-01

    This paper is an extension of a previous work which proposes a non-phenomenological model of population growth that is based on the interactions among the individuals of a population. In addition to what had already been studiedthat the individuals interact competitivelyin the present work it is also considered that the individuals interact cooperatively. As a consequence of this new consideration, a richer dynamics is observed. For instance, besides getting the population models already reached from the original version of the model (as the Malthus, Verhulst, Gompertz, Richards, Bertalanffy and power-law growth models), the new formulation also reaches the von Foerster growth model and also a regime of divergence of the population at a finite time. An agent-based model is also presented in order to give support to the analytical results. Moreover, this new approach of the model explains the Allee effect as an emergent behavior of the cooperative and competitive interactions among the individuals. The Allee effect is the characteristic of some populations of increasing the population growth rate in a small-sized population. Whereas the models presented in the literature explain the Allee effect with phenomenological ideas, the model presented here explains this effect by the interactions between the individuals. The model is tested with empirical data to justify its formulation. Another interesting macroscopic emergent behavior from the model proposed is the observation of a regime of population divergence at a finite time. It is interesting that this characteristic is observed in humanity's global population growth. It is shown that in a regime of cooperation, the model fits very well to the human population growth data from 1000 AD to nowadays. PMID:25724311

  6. Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Molecular-Level Variation Affects Population Growth in a Butterfly Metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    Saccheri, Ilik

    2006-01-01

    The dynamics of natural populations are thought to be dominated by demographic and environmental processes with little influence of intraspecific genetic variation and natural selection, apart from inbreeding depression possibly reducing population growth in small populations. Here we analyse hundreds of well-characterised local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia), which persists in a balance between stochastic local extinctions and recolonisations in a network of 4,000 discrete habitat patches. We show that the allelic composition of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has a significant effect on the growth of local populations, consistent with previously reported effects of allelic variation on flight metabolic performance and fecundity in the Glanville fritillary and Colias butterflies. The strength and the sign of the molecular effect on population growth are sensitive to the ecological context (the area and spatial connectivity of the habitat patches), which affects genotype-specific gene flow and the influence of migration on the dynamics of local populations. The biological significance of the results for Pgi is underscored by lack of any association between population growth and allelic variation at six other loci typed in the same material. In demonstrating, to our knowledge for the first time, that molecular variation in a candidate gene affects population growth, this study challenges the perception that differential performance of individual genotypes, leading to differential fitness, is irrelevant to population dynamics. These results also demonstrate that the spatial configuration of habitat and spatial dynamics of populations contribute to maintenance of Pgi polymorphism in this species. PMID:16620151

  8. Molecular-level variation affects population growth in a butterfly metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Hanski, Ilkka; Saccheri, Ilik

    2006-05-01

    The dynamics of natural populations are thought to be dominated by demographic and environmental processes with little influence of intraspecific genetic variation and natural selection, apart from inbreeding depression possibly reducing population growth in small populations. Here we analyse hundreds of well-characterised local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia), which persists in a balance between stochastic local extinctions and recolonisations in a network of 4,000 discrete habitat patches. We show that the allelic composition of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has a significant effect on the growth of local populations, consistent with previously reported effects of allelic variation on flight metabolic performance and fecundity in the Glanville fritillary and Colias butterflies. The strength and the sign of the molecular effect on population growth are sensitive to the ecological context (the area and spatial connectivity of the habitat patches), which affects genotype-specific gene flow and the influence of migration on the dynamics of local populations. The biological significance of the results for Pgi is underscored by lack of any association between population growth and allelic variation at six other loci typed in the same material. In demonstrating, to our knowledge for the first time, that molecular variation in a candidate gene affects population growth, this study challenges the perception that differential performance of individual genotypes, leading to differential fitness, is irrelevant to population dynamics. These results also demonstrate that the spatial configuration of habitat and spatial dynamics of populations contribute to maintenance of Pgi polymorphism in this species. PMID:16620151

  9. Rural Renaissance in America? The Revival of Population Growth in Remote Areas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Peter A.; Wheeler, Judith P.

    Presenting narrative and tabular documentation of the revival of population growth in remote, rural areas and the decline of growth in urban areas, this bulletin describes the characteristics of these shifts, considers their possible causes, and suggests some of the problems and potential benefits. Specifically, this report presents the following:

  10. Rural Renaissance in America? The Revival of Population Growth in Remote Areas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Peter A.; Wheeler, Judith P.

    Presenting narrative and tabular documentation of the revival of population growth in remote, rural areas and the decline of growth in urban areas, this bulletin describes the characteristics of these shifts, considers their possible causes, and suggests some of the problems and potential benefits. Specifically, this report presents the following:…

  11. The growth of XXX females: population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Ratcliffe, S G; Pan, H; McKie, M

    1994-01-01

    Longitudinal measurements of height, sitting height and leg length are compared between 11 XXX girls identified by cytogenetic screening, and 16 chromosomally normal controls from the same population using a nonparametric method. While height velocity did not differ between the two groups either during the pubertal or the mid-childhood spurts, leg length velocity was significantly increased during the mid-childhood spurt, between 4 and 9 years of age. A further contribution to the increased leg length came from the slower decline in leg length velocity at the end of the pubertal spurt. The possible mechanisms involved in these changes are discussed. PMID:8147577

  12. Seasonality in the strength and spatial scale of processes determining intertidal barnacle population growth.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Hori, Masakazu; Noda, Takashi

    2010-11-01

    1. Population growth rate is determined by both density-dependent and density-independent processes. In the temperate zone, the strength and spatial scale of these processes are likely to differ seasonally, but such differences have rarely been quantitatively examined. 2. Coverage, the area occupied by organisms, is a measure of resource use in sessile marine populations. Population models used for density-based studies should be able to characterize effectively fluctuations in coverage, but few have tried to apply such models to sessile populations. 3. We observed coverage of the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus challengeri at 20 plots on four shores along the Pacific coast of Japan over 8 years. We then fitted a population model that incorporated both a density-dependent process (strength of density dependence) and density-independent processes (intrinsic growth rate and stochastic fluctuation at different spatial scales) to these data to analyse the seasonal variation of these processes and answer the following two questions: (i) How do the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth vary seasonally? (ii) At what spatial scale, regional (tens of kilometres), shore (hundreds of metres), or rock (tens of centimetres), does density-independent stochastic fluctuation most strongly affect population size changes? 4. Barnacle population size tended to decrease in summer, when population dynamics were characterized by a relatively lower intrinsic growth rate, weaker density dependence and stronger stochastic fluctuation. In contrast, population size tended to increase in winter, reflecting a higher intrinsic growth rate, strong density dependence and weak stochastic fluctuation. 5. In summer, population growth rate was strongly affected by regional-scale stochastic fluctuation, whereas in winter it was affected more by rock-scale stochastic fluctuation, suggesting that populations were strongly affected by regional-scale processes in summer but not in winter. 6. These results indicate that seasonally variable density-dependent and density-independent processes determine the population dynamics of C. challengeri. Therefore, to understand fluctuation patterns of populations of this species, seasonality should be taken into account. Moreover, this study demonstrates that population models commonly used for density-based studies are also applicable to coverage-based population studies. PMID:20636347

  13. SUITABILITY OF SELECTED CROPS AND SOIL FOR GARDEN SYMPHYLAN (SYMPHYLA, SCUTIGERELLIDAE: SCUTIGERELLA IMMACULATA NEWPORT) POPULATION GROWTH

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The suitability of selected crops and soil for garden symphylan (Scutigerella immaculata Newport) population growth was studied in the laboratory and field. In the laboratory, we measured the population increase of S. immaculata after 8 w from a starting density of 35 in pots of spinach (Spinacia o...

  14. SUBLETHAL NARCOSIS AND POPULATION PERSISTENCE: A MODELING STUDY ON GROWTH EFFECTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study of a Daphnia population model suggests that sublethal effects of nonpolar narcotics on growth of individual organisms can result in ultimate extinction of the population at chronic chemical concentrations near the effect concentration that leads to a 50% reduction in i...

  15. New Patterns of American Metropolitan Population Growth in the 1970s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Phillip D.

    1978-01-01

    Discusses three aspects of post-1970 American metropolitan population trends: the general dimensions of change between pre- and post-1970 population growth patterns are presented; possible causes of these changes are examined; college or high school level classroom exercises that generate awareness of recent trends and their causes are outlined.…

  16. The Between-Population Genetic Architecture of Growth, Maturation, and Plasticity in Atlantic Salmon

    PubMed Central

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding. PMID:24473933

  17. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    PubMed

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding. PMID:24473933

  18. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  19. Age and growth in three populations of Dosinia exoleta (Bivalvia: Veneridae) from the Portuguese coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moura, Paula; Vasconcelos, Paulo; Gaspar, Miguel B.

    2013-12-01

    The present study aimed at estimating the age and growth in three populations of Dosinia exoleta from the Portuguese coast (Aveiro in the north, Setbal in the southwest and Faro in the south). Two techniques were compared to ascertain the most suitable method for ageing D. exoleta. Growth marks on the shell surface and acetate peel replicas of sectioned shells were the techniques applied. Two hypotheses were tested: growth parameters present latitudinal variation along the Portuguese coast; growth parameters are influenced by the fishing exploitation. Shell surface rings proved inappropriate for ageing this species, whereas acetate peels provided realistic estimates of the von Bertalanffy growth parameters ( K, L ? and t 0). A latitudinal gradient in growth rate was detected, with a clear southward increase in the growth coefficient ( K) of D. exoleta (Faro > Setbal and Aveiro) indicating that warmer waters in southern Portugal provide optimal conditions for the growth of this species. Fishing exploitation in northern Portugal targets larger individuals and leaves behind a younger population of smaller individuals, decreasing the asymptotic shell length ( L ? ) of D. exoleta from Aveiro. The overall growth performance was compared among populations of D. exoleta and with other venerid species worldwide.

  20. County wide employment and population growth: an analysis of the 1980s.

    PubMed

    Clark, D E; Murphy, C A

    1996-05-01

    "Regional scientists remain interested in studying interregional differences in the growth rates of population and employment. Following the earlier work of Carlino and Mills, this paper examines growth trends at the county level in the U.S. during the period 1981-1989. Five major sectors of employment are examined. A partial adjustment model is developed that captures intercounty differences in amenities, business and fiscal conditions, demography, employment structure, and relative location. Some evidence is given that population and employment growth was simultaneous, although feedback effects apparently were not strong." PMID:12291905

  1. A MULTI-PATCH MALARIA MODEL WITH LOGISTIC GROWTH POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Gao, Daozhou; Ruan, Shigui

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a multi-patch model to study the effects of population dispersal on the spatial spread of malaria between patches. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived and it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text] and unstable if [Formula: see text]. Bounds on the disease-free equilibrium and [Formula: see text] are given. A sufficient condition for the existence of an endemic equilibrium when [Formula: see text] is obtained. For the two-patch submodel, the dependence of [Formula: see text] on the movement of exposed, infectious, and recovered humans between the two patches is investigated. Numerical simulations indicate that travel can help the disease to become endemic in both patches, even though the disease dies out in each isolated patch. However, if travel rates are continuously increased, the disease may die out again in both patches. PMID:23723531

  2. Population divergence in growth rate and antipredator defences in Rana arvalis.

    PubMed

    Laurila, Anssi; Pakkasmaa, Susanna; Merilä, Juha

    2006-04-01

    Growth and development rates often differ among populations of the same species, yet the factors maintaining this differentiation are not well understood. We investigated the antipredator defences and their efficiency in two moor frog Rana arvalis populations differing in growth and development rates by raising tadpoles in outdoor containers in the nonlethal presence and absence of three different predators (newt, fish, dragonfly larva), and by estimating tadpole survival in the presence of free-ranging predators in a laboratory experiment. Young tadpoles in both populations reduced activity in the presence of predators and increased hiding behaviour in the presence of newt and fish. Older tadpoles from the slow-growing Gotland population (G) had stronger hiding behaviour and lower activity in all treatments than tadpoles from the fast-growing Uppland population (U). However, both populations showed a plastic behavioural response in terms of reduced activity. The populations differed in induced morphological defences especially in response to fish. G tadpoles responded with relatively long and deep body, short tail and shallow tail muscle, whereas the responses in U tadpoles were often the opposite and closer to the responses induced by the other predators. U tadpoles metamorphosed earlier, but at a similar size to G tadpoles. There was no evidence that growth rate was affected by predator treatments, but tadpoles metamorphosed later and at larger size in the predator treatments. G tadpoles survived better in the presence of free-ranging predators than U tadpoles. These results suggest that in these two populations, low growth rate was linked with low activity and increased hiding, whereas high growth rate was linked with high activity and less hiding. The differences in behaviour may explain the difference in survival between the populations, but other mechanisms (i.e. differences in swimming speed) may also be involved. There appears to be considerable differentiation in antipredator responses between these two R. arvalis populations, as well as with respect to different predators. PMID:16323018

  3. Some laws relating to population growth: laws directly affecting fertility.

    PubMed

    Wee Kim Seng, K

    1977-05-01

    In Singapore the government policy is to convince as many of its population as possible to adopt the value of the 2-child family. Contraception is recognized as the primary way to reach this goal. Sterilization is considered a supplementary measure, with abortion the more extreme final alternative. As might be expected from the government policy, there is no legal restriction on the individual who wishes to practice contraception. However, persons or associations involved in the promotion or dissemination of family planning information or sale or distribution of family planning methods need to register with the Family Planning and Population Board (FPPB) and be subject to the Board's direction. In 1974, when the sterilization law was further liberalized, Parliament passed the Abortion Act 1974, effective December 27, 1974. This Act replaced the original Abortion Act and provided for abortion on demand subject to certain safeguards. It is required that the abortion be performed by a registered medical practitioner acting on the request of a pregnant woman and with her written consent. The 1 important safeguard laid down by the Act is that no termination of pregnancy shall be carried out if the pregnancy exceeds 24 weeks unless the abortion is immediately necessary to save the life or to prevent grave permanent injury to the physical or mental health of the pregnant woman. Currently, the government policy in regard to sterilization is to encourage sterilization on the part of both men and women as an effective way of limiting the size of families to 2 children. A number of incentives have been made available to persuade people to undergo sterilization. PMID:586576

  4. [Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

    PubMed

    Paiva, P D

    1986-01-01

    The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years. PMID:12143702

  5. Population growth rate determinants for Arbacia: Evaluating ecological relevance of toxicity test endpoints

    SciTech Connect

    Nacci, D.; Gleason, T.; Munns, W.R. Jr.

    1995-12-31

    A population dynamics model for the sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, was recently developed incorporating life stage endpoints frequently measured in acute and chronic toxicity studies. Model elasticity analysis was used to demonstrate that population growth rate was influenced most by adult survival and least by early life stage success, calling into question the ecological relevance of results from standardized Arbacia fertilization and larval development toxicity tests. Two approaches were used to continue this evaluation. Actual and hypothetical dose-response curves for toxicant exposures over multiple life stages were used to evaluate contributions to population growth rate of stage-specific toxicant effects. Additionally, relationships between critical life stages were developed from laboratory data for Arbacia. The results of this analysis underscore the importance of understanding both endpoint sensitivity to toxicants and sensitivity of population growth rate to test endpoints in determining the ecological relevance of toxicity tests results.

  6. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  7. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  8. Sexual Reproduction in a Simple Growth Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Carlos Gentil Oro; Santos, Marcio

    2012-05-01

    One of the most important characteristics in the survival of a species is related to the kind of reproduction responsible for the offspring generation. However, only in the last years the role played by sexual reproduction has been investigated. Then, for a better understanding of this kind of process we introduce, in this work, a surface reaction model that describes the role of the sexual reproduction. In our model two different elements of the species, representing male and female, can interact to reproduce a new element. The sex of this new element is chosen with a given probability and in order to take into account the mortality rate we introduce another kind of individual. The value of the spatial density of this element remains constant during the time evolution of the system. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and mean field approximation. Depending on the values of the control parameters of the model, the system can attain two stationary states: In one of them the population survives and in the other it can be extinguished. Besides, accordingly to our results, the phase diagram of the model shows a discontinuous transition between these two states.

  9. The impact of disease on the survival and population growth rate of the Tasmanian devil.

    PubMed

    Lachish, Shelly; Jones, Menna; McCallum, Hamish

    2007-09-01

    1. We investigated the impact of a recently emerged disease, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), on the survival and population growth rate of a population of Tasmanian devils, Sarcophilus harrisii, on the Freycinet Peninsula in eastern Tasmania. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber and multistate mark-recapture models were employed to investigate the impact of DFTD on age- and sex-specific apparent survival and transition rates. Disease impact on population growth rate was investigated using reverse-time mark-recapture models. 3. The arrival of DFTD triggered an immediate and steady decline in apparent survival rates of adults and subadults, the rate of which was predicted well by the increase in disease prevalence in the population over time. 4. Transitions from healthy to diseased state increased with disease prevalence suggesting that the force of infection in the population is increasing and that the epidemic is not subsiding. 5. The arrival of DFTD coincided with a marked, ongoing decline in the population growth rate of the previously stable population, which to date has not been offset by population compensatory responses. PMID:17714271

  10. Exponential expansion: galactic destiny or technological hubris?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finney, B. R.

    Is it our destiny to expand exponentially to populate the galaxy, or is such a vision but an extreme example of technological hubris? The overall record of human evolution and dispersion over the Earth can be cited to support the view that we are a uniquely expansionary and technological animal bound for the stars, yet an examination of the fate of individual migrations and exploratory initiatives raises doubts. Although it may be in keeping with our hubristic nature to predict ultimate galactic expansion, there is no way to specify how far expansionary urges may drive our spacefaring descendants.

  11. On the relationship between population growth and social and economic development.

    PubMed

    Xu, D

    1983-01-01

    China's population has grown rapidly since 1949, reaching a size of 1,008,170,000 by 1982. Rapid population growth has been encouraged by a high birth rate coupled with low mortality, traditional preference for sons, and the incorrect assumption that man is only a producer and not a consumer. Rapid population growth directly decreases economic development while producing a rapidly increasing labor force requiring an increase in the number of jobs available. Population growth has already reduced arable land from 3 MN in 1949 to 1.5 MN at present and can also cause sanitation and pollution problems. Only by adopting family plnning and the 1 child family can China gradually slow population growth to correspond with economic development; then the state will be able to improve health care and education and, therefore, population quality. China's population policy is not one of NeoMalthusianism, which advocates birth control and late marriage, and assumes the existence of a capitalist system and does not apply to communist systems. Malthus may have attempted to absolve the nourgeoisie from all blame by aiming his preaching against blind reproduction at the poor; he thought that overpopulation would be reduced by pestilence, war, and famine. Protecting capitalism motivated Malthus and other capitalists, but the Chinese want to promote economic development. Marx has refuted Malthus' views on population. While Chinese population policy and NeoMalthusianism agree on advocating birth control and late marriage, their underlying philosophies are different. The author supports laws and policies on fertility and family planning, and feels that population scientists must be involved in all aspects--study, propaganda, and education--relating to family planning. PMID:12313980

  12. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min

    2012-11-01

    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (λ) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 μg L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on λ was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants. PMID:22851126

  13. Toxicology across scales: Cell population growth in vitro predicts reduced fish growth

    PubMed Central

    Stadnicka-Michalak, Julita; Schirmer, Kristin; Ashauer, Roman

    2015-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is essential but often relies on ethically controversial and expensive methods. We show that tests using cell cultures, combined with modeling of toxicological effects, can replace tests with juvenile fish. Hundreds of thousands of fish at this developmental stage are annually used to assess the influence of chemicals on growth. Juveniles are more sensitive than adult fish, and their growth can affect their chances to survive and reproduce. Thus, to reduce the number of fish used for such tests, we propose a method that can quantitatively predict chemical impact on fish growth based on in vitro data. Our model predicts reduced fish growth in two fish species in excellent agreement with measured in vivo data of two pesticides. This promising step toward alternatives to fish toxicity testing is simple, inexpensive, and fast and only requires in vitro data for model calibration. PMID:26601229

  14. Toxicology across scales: Cell population growth in vitro predicts reduced fish growth.

    PubMed

    Stadnicka-Michalak, Julita; Schirmer, Kristin; Ashauer, Roman

    2015-08-01

    Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is essential but often relies on ethically controversial and expensive methods. We show that tests using cell cultures, combined with modeling of toxicological effects, can replace tests with juvenile fish. Hundreds of thousands of fish at this developmental stage are annually used to assess the influence of chemicals on growth. Juveniles are more sensitive than adult fish, and their growth can affect their chances to survive and reproduce. Thus, to reduce the number of fish used for such tests, we propose a method that can quantitatively predict chemical impact on fish growth based on in vitro data. Our model predicts reduced fish growth in two fish species in excellent agreement with measured in vivo data of two pesticides. This promising step toward alternatives to fish toxicity testing is simple, inexpensive, and fast and only requires in vitro data for model calibration. PMID:26601229

  15. Comparison of individual-based modeling and population approaches for prediction of foodborne pathogens growth.

    PubMed

    Augustin, Jean-Christophe; Ferrier, Rachel; Hezard, Bernard; Lintz, Adrienne; Stahl, Valérie

    2015-02-01

    Individual-based modeling (IBM) approach combined with the microenvironment modeling of vacuum-packed cold-smoked salmon was more effective to describe the variability of the growth of a few Listeria monocytogenes cells contaminating irradiated salmon slices than the traditional population models. The IBM approach was particularly relevant to predict the absence of growth in 25% (5 among 20) of artificially contaminated cold-smoked salmon samples stored at 8 °C. These results confirmed similar observations obtained with smear soft cheese (Ferrier et al., 2013). These two different food models were used to compare the IBM/microscale and population/macroscale modeling approaches in more global exposure and risk assessment frameworks taking into account the variability and/or the uncertainty of the factors influencing the growth of L. monocytogenes. We observed that the traditional population models significantly overestimate exposure and risk estimates in comparison to IBM approach when contamination of foods occurs with a low number of cells (<100 per serving). Moreover, the exposure estimates obtained with the population model were characterized by a great uncertainty. The overestimation was mainly linked to the ability of IBM to predict no growth situations rather than the consideration of microscale environment. On the other hand, when the aim of quantitative risk assessment studies is only to assess the relative impact of changes in control measures affecting the growth of foodborne bacteria, the two modeling approach gave similar results and the simplest population approach was suitable. PMID:25500386

  16. The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future: its origins, operations, and aftermath.

    PubMed

    Westoff, C F

    1973-10-01

    The origins, organization, and operation of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future and the response to its report are described. The origins of the Commission are traced to a concern with the consequences of U.S. population growth on the part of such key individuals as John D. Rockefeller 3rd and Paul Ehrlich. Because the Commission was a statutory creation of Congress, its membership included 4 Congressmen in addition to 20 distinguished citizens representing a spectrum of groups and views. The evaluation of the consequences of growth, as opposed to the means of reducing fertility, became the major concern of the research effort. Several issues led to differences within the Commission: 1) A narrow versus a broad definition of the scope of the report; 2) differing perceptions of the population problem as manifested by the ecological view, the "unwanted fertility" school, and the social justice view. The social science work contracted by the Commission had a significant impact on the final report's substance: 1) the demographic work on population projections was crucial to the analysis of the consequences of growth; 2) evaluating the demographic capability of national "growth center strategy" had an influence; and 3) the need to eliminate unwanted fertility was confirmed as a necessary priority. The basic thrust of the Commission's report was to recomment slowing growth in order to maximize the quality of life. PMID:12257905

  17. Age, growth and mortality in four populations of the boring bivalve Lithophaga patagonica from Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagur, Mara; Richardson, Christopher A.; Gutirrez, Jorge L.; Arribas, Lorena P.; Doldan, M. Socorro; Palomo, M. Gabriela

    2013-08-01

    The boring bivalve Lithophaga patagonica (d'Orbigny, 1842) is a locally abundant inhabitant of hard substrata in the coastal waters of the Southwestern Atlantic. In this paper, we describe the growth, age and mortality of three intertidal rock-boring populations of L. patagonica and one subtidal oyster shell (Ostrea puelchana) boring population. An analysis of acetate peel replicas of shell sections showed that L. patagonica slows down its growth during autumn-winter, which leads to changes in the direction and rate of shell deposition and the formation of conspicuous annual (low temperature induced) clefts in the shell margin. Cleft counts and Von Bertalanffy growth analyses indicated that maximum age varies from 4 years in the oyster-boring population to 13 years in a rock-boring one (longevity estimates varied between 6.5 and 15 years, respectively). Maximum asymptotic length (L?) and Von Bertalanffy growth constant (K) were also variable between populations (L? between 14.76 and 36.95 mm and K from 0.20 to 0.90 yr- 1 respectively). Mortality rates were higher at the two southernmost populations. Type (rock vs. oyster), composition and hardness of the substrata are likely the main factors controlling the observed differences between populations.

  18. Linear or Exponential Number Lines

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stafford, Pat

    2011-01-01

    Having decided to spend some time looking at one's understanding of numbers, the author was inspired by "Alex's Adventures in Numberland," by Alex Bellos to look at one's innate appreciation of number. Bellos quotes research studies suggesting that an individual's natural appreciation of numbers is more likely to be exponential rather than linear,…

  19. Oscillations in radioactive exponential decay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semkow, T. M.; Haines, D. K.; Beach, S. E.; Kilpatrick, B. J.; Khan, A. J.; O'Brien, K.

    2009-05-01

    Several older and recent reports provided evidence for the oscillatory character of the exponential decay law in radioactive decay and attempted to explain it with basic physics. We show here that the measured effects observed in some of the cases, namely in the decay of 226Ra, 32Si in equilibrium, and 36Cl, can be explained with the temperature variations.

  20. Approximating Functions with Exponential Functions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2005-01-01

    The possibility of approximating a function with a linear combination of exponential functions of the form e[superscript x], e[superscript 2x], ... is considered as a parallel development to the notion of Taylor polynomials which approximate a function with a linear combination of power function terms. The sinusoidal functions sin "x" and cos "x"…

  1. Slow Protein Fluctuations Explain the Emergence of Growth Phenotypes and Persistence in Clonal Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Rocco, Andrea; Kierzek, Andrzej M.; McFadden, Johnjoe

    2013-01-01

    One of the most challenging problems in microbiology is to understand how a small fraction of microbes that resists killing by antibiotics can emerge in a population of genetically identical cells, the phenomenon known as persistence or drug tolerance. Its characteristic signature is the biphasic kill curve, whereby microbes exposed to a bactericidal agent are initially killed very rapidly but then much more slowly. Here we relate this problem to the more general problem of understanding the emergence of distinct growth phenotypes in clonal populations. We address the problem mathematically by adopting the framework of the phenomenon of so-called weak ergodicity breaking, well known in dynamical physical systems, which we extend to the biological context. We show analytically and by direct stochastic simulations that distinct growth phenotypes can emerge as a consequence of slow-down of stochastic fluctuations in the expression of a gene controlling growth rate. In the regime of fast gene transcription, the system is ergodic, the growth rate distribution is unimodal, and accounts for one phenotype only. In contrast, at slow transcription and fast translation, weakly non-ergodic components emerge, the population distribution of growth rates becomes bimodal, and two distinct growth phenotypes are identified. When coupled to the well-established growth rate dependence of antibiotic killing, this model describes the observed fast and slow killing phases, and reproduces much of the phenomenology of bacterial persistence. The model has major implications for efforts to develop control strategies for persistent infections. PMID:23382887

  2. Survival, Recruitment, and Population Growth Rate of an Important Mesopredator: The Northern Raccoon

    PubMed Central

    Troyer, Elizabeth M.; Cameron Devitt, Susan E.; Sunquist, Melvin E.; Goswami, Varun R.; Oli, Madan K.

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel’s temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936–0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893–0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078–0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042–0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996–1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models. PMID:24901349

  3. Coordination of Gene Expression and Growth-Rate in Natural Populations of Budding Yeast

    PubMed Central

    Barkai, Naama

    2014-01-01

    Cells adapt to environmental changes through genetic mutations that stabilize novel phenotypes. Often, this adaptation involves regulatory changes which modulate gene expression. In the budding yeast, ribosomal-related gene expression correlates with cell growth rate across different environments. To examine whether the same relationship between gene expression and growth rate is observed also across natural populations, we measured gene expression, growth rate and ethanol production of twenty-four wild type yeast strains originating from diverse habitats, grown on the pentose sugar xylulose. We found that expression of ribosome-related genes did not correlate with growth rate. Rather, growth rate was correlated with the expression of amino acid biosynthesis genes. Searching other databases, we observed a similar correlation between growth rate and amino-acid biosyntehsis genes in a library of gene deletions. We discuss the implications of our results for understanding how cells coordinate their translation capacity with available nutrient resources. PMID:24533150

  4. Toxicity of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Euglena gracilis: cell population growth, carbon fixation, chlorophyll level, oxygen consumption, and protein and nucleic acid synthesis.

    PubMed

    Ewald, W G; French, J E; Champ, M A

    1976-07-01

    Populations of Euglena gracilis in exponential growth under light were exposed to 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, and 10 ppm of Aroclor 1221. The ID50/48 of Aroclor 1221 was estimated to be 4.4 ppm, while Aroclor 1232 tested at 20, 35, 50, and 100 ppm resulted in an id50/48 of 55 ppm. With Aroclor 1242, no inhibition of growth was observed with up to 100 ppm exposure. Cell cultures exposed to 4.4 ppm of Aroclor 1221 for 48 hrs had a significantly reduced rate of carbon fixation and reduced levels of chlorophyll after correction for cell density. Oxygen consumption was not affected at the ID50 level of the Aroclor. Uptake of [3H]-leucine in treated cultures was twice that of controls, and [3H]-uridine uptake was significantly lower. Uptake of [3H]-thymidine, and incorporation of [3H]-leucine, [3H]-thymidine, and [3H]-uridine were not significantly different in treated and control cultures. Thes results suggest that at the ID50 level, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) reduce cell population growth in Euglena gracilis by inhibition of photosynthesis and/or chlorophyll production. PMID:822906

  5. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure. PMID:26338267

  6. On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-09-01

    The growth dynamics of complex organizations have attracted much interest of econophysicists and sociophysicists in recent years. However, most of the studies are done for developed countries. We investigate the growth dynamics of the primary industry and the population of 2079 counties in mainland China using the data from the China County Statistical Yearbooks from 2000 to 2006. We find that the annual growth rates are distributed according to Student’s t distribution with the tail exponent less than 2. We find power-law relationships between the sample standard deviation of the growth rates and the initial size. The scaling exponent is less than 0.5 for the primary industry and close to 0.5 for the population.

  7. Simple quasi-exponential slope generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, T. O.; Hurd, W. J.

    1969-01-01

    Circuitry for digitally generating an exponentially decaying wave function permits discrete values to be sampled from the exponential waveform for comparison with a binary number of specified accuracy. This exponential-decay generator employs a simple binary counter to count in the sequence of exponential decay.

  8. Natural growth of the population of Plovdiv, Bulgaria for the period 1895-1995.

    PubMed

    Dimitrov, I

    1998-01-01

    A study of the natural growth rate of the population using female cohorts by birth year has been carried out for the first time in our country. The study comprises 14 cohorts. The following characteristics are recorded: birth year, social group, educational level, number of live births, age of marriage, infant mortality rate, proto- and intergenetic intervals. Our report presents the key indicators of natural growth of population in the studied cohorts. A consistent trend of decreasing the number of livebirths is established. In the first studied cohort (1895-1899) the average number of offspring per woman is 3.94, reaching a level of 1.77 in the 1960-1964 cohort. The indicators for natural growth of population exhibit a similar trend. The summary fertility rate in the reference period decreases with more than 2 points--from 4.47 in 1895-1899 to 1.73 in 1960-1964. Likewise, the total reproduction rate goes down from 2.54 to 0.78 for the same period. Considerable changes have occurred in the indicators total period fertility rate and marriage fertility rate of women. For a period of 110 years the former has decreased 3.5 times, the latter--8 times. The drastic drop of the indicators of natural growth of the population is accounted for by an intricate complex of social, economic, psychological and biological factors. The marked aging of the population and the decrease of the percentage of women in active fertility age play a certain role in this process. The ascertained changes in the reproductive behavior and age structure of the female population are factors intensifying the unfavorable trends in the natural growth rate of the population in our country. PMID:9707807

  9. Role of prey and intraspecific density dependence on the population growth of an avian top predator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez-de-Simon, Javier; Díaz-Ruiz, Francisco; Cirilli, Francesca; Tortosa, Francisco S.; Villafuerte, Rafael; Ferreras, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    Exploring predator-prey systems in diverse ecosystems increases our knowledge about ecological processes. Predator population growth may be positive when conspecific density is low but predators also need areas with prey availability, associated with competition, which increases the risk of suffering losses but stabilises populations. We studied relationships between European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus (prey) and adult eagle owls Bubo bubo (predators) in south-western Europe. We assessed models explaining the predator population growth and stability. We estimated the abundance of rabbits and adult eagle owls during three years in eight localities of central-southern Spain. We explored models including rabbit and adult eagle owl abundance, accounting for yearly variations and including the locality as a random variable. We found that population growth of adult eagle owls was positive in situations with low conspecific abundance and tended to be negative but approaching equilibrium in situations of higher conspecific abundance. Population growth was also positively related to previous summer rabbit density when taking into account eagle owl conspecific abundance, possibly indicating that rabbits may support recruitment. Furthermore, abundance stability of adult eagle owls was positively related to previous winter-spring rabbit density, which could suggest predator population stabilisation through quick territory occupation in high-quality areas. These results exemplify the trade-off between prey availability and abundance of adult predators related to population growth and abundance stability in the eagle owl-rabbit system in south-western Europe. Despite rabbits have greatly declined during the last decades and eagle owls locally specialise on them, eagle owls currently have a favourable conservation status. As eagle owls are the only nocturnal raptor with such dependence on rabbits, this could point out that predators may overcome prey decreases in areas with favourable climate and prey in the absence of superior competitors with similar foraging mode.

  10. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    PubMed Central

    Tajul, M. I.; Alam, M. M.; Hossain, S. M. M.; Naher, K.; Rafii, M. Y.; Latif, M. A.

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments. PMID:24163615

  11. Detecting population growth, selection and inherited fertility from haplotypic data in humans.

    PubMed Central

    Austerlitz, Frdric; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Heyer, Evelyne

    2003-01-01

    The frequency of a rare mutant allele and the level of allelic association between this allele and one or several closely linked markers are frequently measured in genetic epidemiology. Both quantities are related to the time elapsed since the appearance of the mutation in the population and the intrinsic growth rate of the mutation (which may be different from the average population growth rate). Here, we develop a method that uses these two kinds of genetic data to perform a joint estimation of the age of the mutation and the minimum growth rate that is compatible with its present frequency. In absence of demographic data, it provides a useful estimate of population growth rate. When such data are available, contrasts among estimates from several loci allow demographic processes, affecting all loci similarly, to be distinguished from selection, affecting loci differently. Testing these estimates on populations for which data are available for several disorders shows good congruence with demographic data in some cases whereas in others higher growth rates are obtained, which may be the result of selection or hidden demographic processes. PMID:14668404

  12. Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data.

    PubMed

    Leites, Laura P; Robinson, Andrew P; Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Marshall, John D; Crookston, Nicholas L

    2012-01-01

    Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach, we describe three-year height (HT) growth response to changes in climate of interior Douglas-fir populations. We incorporate climate information at the population level, yielding a model that is specific to both species and population. We use data from provenance tests from previous studies that comprised 236 populations from Idaho, Montana, and eastern Washington, USA. The most sensitive indicator of climate was the mean temperature of the coldest month. Population maximum HT and HT growth response to changes in climate were dependent on seed source climate. All populations had optimum HT growth when transferred to climates with warmer winters; those originating in sites with the warmest winters were taller across sites and had highest HT growth at transfer distances closest to zero; those from colder climates were shortest and had optimum HT growth when transferred the farthest. Although this differential response damped the height growth differences among populations, cold-climate populations still achieved their maximum growth at lower temperatures than warm-climate populations. The results highlight the relevance of understanding climate change impacts at the population level, particularly in a species with ample genetic variation among populations. PMID:22471081

  13. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hübner to temperature and diet

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Response to temperature and diet are major factors in the potential population growth of Plodia interpunctella Hübner, a damaging pest of many stored products. A population growth model was used to simulate population development on an optimal wheat-based diet and a sub-optimal diet of raisins at 20...

  14. India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    La Fleur, Mary Ann

    This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

  15. Population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky. L. brunnea did not survive at 43% RH, while populations increased from 22.5-32.5°C and 55 -75% RH. Interestingly, we found L. brunnea population growth ...

  16. Population growth of Dermatophagoides farinae Hughes (Acari: Epidermoptidae) suppressed by methoprene and hydroprene.

    PubMed

    Downing, A S; Wright, C G; Farrier, M H

    1993-05-01

    Insect growth regulators are synthetic chemicals that mimic the function of hormones that occur naturally in arthropods. Two such insect growth regulators, methoprene and hydroprene, were tested to determine effects on growth of laboratory populations of the American house dust mite, Dermatophagoides farinae Hughes. Adults and immature mites were treated with four concentrations of each chemical in contact and diet-incorporation bioassays. Data were collected after 30 and 90 d of exposure to the treatments. Both compounds significantly suppressed population growth when compared with acetone controls at concentrations of > or = 5%. Methoprene was more effective than hydroprene in diet-incorporation bioassays and was slightly more effective for the first 30 d of the contact assays. A second set of contact and diet-incorporation assays was done using one concentration (7.5%) of methoprene and hydroprene to determine the effect of these compounds on population dynamics of D. farinae. In this experiment, population numbers were evaluated at weekly intervals for 13 wk. The average number of mites in the untreated control population increased by more than 10 times the original inoculum during the experiment while the number of mites in the treated containers did not increase significantly. This trend was similar for both contact and diet-incorporation bioassays although the average number of mites per container was significantly higher when the treatments were incorporated in the house dust mite diet than when applied directly to the substrate. PMID:8510113

  17. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  18. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  19. Neutral genomic regions refine models of recent rapid human population growth.

    PubMed

    Gazave, Elodie; Ma, Li; Chang, Diana; Coventry, Alex; Gao, Feng; Muzny, Donna; Boerwinkle, Eric; Gibbs, Richard A; Sing, Charles F; Clark, Andrew G; Keinan, Alon

    2014-01-14

    Human populations have experienced dramatic growth since the Neolithic revolution. Recent studies that sequenced a very large number of individuals observed an extreme excess of rare variants and provided clear evidence of recent rapid growth in effective population size, although estimates have varied greatly among studies. All these studies were based on protein-coding genes, in which variants are also impacted by natural selection. In this study, we introduce targeted sequencing data for studying recent human history with minimal confounding by natural selection. We sequenced loci far from genes that meet a wide array of additional criteria such that mutations in these loci are putatively neutral. As population structure also skews allele frequencies, we sequenced 500 individuals of relatively homogeneous ancestry by first analyzing the population structure of 9,716 European Americans. We used very high coverage sequencing to reliably call rare variants and fit an extensive array of models of recent European demographic history to the site frequency spectrum. The best-fit model estimates ∼ 3.4% growth per generation during the last ∼ 140 generations, resulting in a population size increase of two orders of magnitude. This model fits the data very well, largely due to our observation that assumptions of more ancient demography can impact estimates of recent growth. This observation and results also shed light on the discrepancy in demographic estimates among recent studies. PMID:24379384

  20. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of

  1. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  2. Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

    2001-01-01

    In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

  3. Exponentially Stabilizing Robot Control Laws

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wen, John T.; Bayard, David S.

    1990-01-01

    New class of exponentially stabilizing laws for joint-level control of robotic manipulators introduced. In case of set-point control, approach offers simplicity of proportion/derivative control architecture. In case of tracking control, approach provides several important alternatives to completed-torque method, as far as computational requirements and convergence. New control laws modified in simple fashion to obtain asymptotically stable adaptive control, when robot model and/or payload mass properties unknown.

  4. Comparison of native and introduced flathead catfish populations in Alabama and Georgia: Growth, mortality, and management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.; Jolley, J.C.; Harrison, D.

    2006-01-01

    We compared growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris from two native populations in Alabama (Coosa and Tallapoosa rivers) and two introduced populations in Georgia (Ocmulgee and Satilla rivers). We also compared mortality rates and potential outcomes of various management regimes (minimum length limits [MLLs]) among the populations. Total length-log10(age) regression slopes for introduced fish were higher than those for native fish, and von Bertalanffy growth coefficients (K) were greater for introduced fish (Ocmulgee: 0.195; Satilla: 0.201) than for native individuals (Coosa: 0.057; Tallapoosa: 0.059). Therefore, introduced flathead catfish grew more rapidly than those in their native range. Mortality (instantaneous mortality rate, Z) was higher in the Satilla River population (Z = -0.602) than in the Ocmulgee River (Z = -0.227) and Coosa River (Z = -0.156) populations. However, fish in the Satilla River population had been introduced for only 10 years and presumably did not reach their theoretical maximum age, potentially biasing the mortality estimate for that population. Simulation of management regimes in Fishery Analyses and Simulation Tools software predicted that maximum biomass of flathead catfish in the Ocmulgee (1,668 kg) and Satilla (1,137 kg) rivers was substantially larger than that in the Coosa (873 kg) and Tallapoosa (768 kg) populations. However, increased exploitation rates in the Ocmulgee and Satilla River populations resulted in dramatic declines in overall biomass, especially at lower MLLs (254 and 356 mm, respectively). Therefore, in systems where introduced flathead catfish represent an important recreational fishery but have dramatically reduced the abundance of native fishes through predation, minimal protection is recommended. We contend that rapid growth of introduced flathead catfish has major implications for their management and the conservation of native fishes. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  5. Impacts of breeder loss on social structure, reproduction and population growth in a social canid.

    PubMed

    Borg, Bridget L; Brainerd, Scott M; Meier, Thomas J; Prugh, Laura R

    2015-01-01

    The importance of individuals to the dynamics of populations may depend on reproductive status, especially for species with complex social structure. Loss of reproductive individuals in socially complex species could disproportionately affect population dynamics by destabilizing social structure and reducing population growth. Alternatively, compensatory mechanisms such as rapid replacement of breeders may result in little disruption. The impact of breeder loss on the population dynamics of social species remains poorly understood. We evaluated the effect of breeder loss on social stability, recruitment and population growth of grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska using a 26-year dataset of 387 radiocollared wolves. Harvest of breeding wolves is a highly contentious conservation and management issue worldwide, with unknown population-level consequences. Breeder loss preceded 77% of cases (n = 53) of pack dissolution from 1986 to 2012. Packs were more likely to dissolve if a female or both breeders were lost and pack size was small. Harvest of breeders increased the probability of pack dissolution, likely because the timing of harvest coincided with the breeding season of wolves. Rates of denning and successful recruitment were uniformly high for packs that did not experience breeder loss; however, packs that lost breeders exhibited lower denning and recruitment rates. Breeder mortality and pack dissolution had no significant effects on immediate or longer term population dynamics. Our results indicate the importance of breeding individuals is context dependent. The impact of breeder loss on social group persistence, reproduction and population growth may be greatest when average group sizes are small and mortality occurs during the breeding season. This study highlights the importance of reproductive individuals in maintaining group cohesion in social species, but at the population level socially complex species may be resilient to disruption and harvest through strong compensatory mechanisms. PMID:25041127

  6. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  7. Traveling bands for the Keller-Segel model with population growth.

    PubMed

    Ai, Shangbing; Wang, Zhian

    2015-08-01

    This paper is concerned with the existence of the traveling bands to the Keller-Segel model with cell population growth in the form of a chemical uptake kinetics. We find that when the cell growth is considered, the profile of traveling bands, the minimum wave speed and the range of the chemical consumption rate for the existence of traveling wave solutions will change. Our results reveal that collective interaction of cell growth and chemical consumption rate plays an essential role in the generation of traveling bands. The research in the paper provides new insights into the mechanisms underlying the chemotactic pattern formation of wave bands. PMID:25974334

  8. Theory of a microfluidic serial dilution bioreactor for growth of planktonic and biofilm populations.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Sze-Bi; Yang, Ya-Tang

    2016-04-01

    We present the theory of a microfluidic bioreactor with a two-compartment growth chamber and periodic serial dilution. In the model, coexisting planktonic and biofilm populations exchange by adsorption and detachment. The criteria for coexistence and global extinction are determined by stability analysis of the global extinction state. Stability analysis yields the operating diagram in terms of the dilution and removal ratios, constrained by the plumbing action of the bioreactor. The special case of equal uptake function and logistic growth is analytically solved and explicit growth curves are plotted. The presented theory is applicable to generic microfluidic bioreactors with discrete growth chambers and periodic dilution at discrete time points. Therefore, the theory is expected to assist the design of microfluidic devices for investigating microbial competition and microbial biofilm growth under serial dilution conditions. PMID:26134670

  9. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  10. The control of population growth is the function of the central government.

    PubMed

    1994-04-01

    This speech of Mr. Jiang Zemin, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and Chairman of the People's Republic of China, before the National Forum on Family Planning Work refers to the need to strictly and effectively implement the family planning program in 1994. Socioeconomic reforms will be occurring simultaneously. Success of the family planning program is attributed to Party Committees, governments, cadres, and the masses. Even though there have been advances made in slowing population growth, the vast size of the Chinese population still poses problems. China's state policy is to modernize and to maintain strict control of overrapid population growth. The strategy is to move toward a market economy, while continuing to slow population growth but without market regulation of population growth. Family planning serves the state and the people through voluntary action. The public must receive "meticulous" education and help with day to day problems in production, daily life, and human reproduction. Government departments and nongovernmental organizations need to work together. Family planning use is the obligation of every citizen, who should be made aware of relevant national policy and of the need for devotion to country. Benefits will be received by the state and families, when family planning is used. Family planning will be cultivated as an honorable act, and boys and girls will be valued equally. The educational program will train leaders and cadres to take a leadership role in practicing family planning. Party organizations and governments at all levels should take personal responsibility for program implementation. Erratic efforts are not good enough; the task is long and arduous. Serious difficulties still exist in rural areas, and program focus should be directed to rural areas and the floating population. Reports were also made at the Forum on the population status and preparatory meetings of the forthcoming women's conference. Views of family planning were presented by the Party Secretary from Sichuan Province and the Governor of Hunan Province. PMID:12346839

  11. Consequences of Rapid Population Growth: An Overview. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 691 and Population and Development Series No. 16.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNicoll, Geoffrey

    A systematic discussion of the consequences of rapid population growth for economics and social systems examines growth resulting from mortality decline in the absence of comparable fertility decline. Growth resulting from net migration is also considered. The background and rationale for the study are supplied in a brief introduction. Part 2…

  12. Effect of different initial population densities of Meloidogyne incognita on the growth of Cicer arietinum.

    PubMed

    Hesamedin, R

    2006-01-01

    Studies were undertaken to determine the effect of different initial population densities (Pi = 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000, 2500, 5000, 10,000 and 15,000 J2/Pot) of Meloidogyn incognita on chikpea cv. Bandal local in a pot experiment. Plant growth, flowering and pod bearing were influenced by all the initial population densities. Increase in Pi not only resulted in proportional decrease in plant lenght, fresh weight, dry weight and pod bearing but also delayed the flowering. The highest reduction was observed at the initial population of 15000 as compared to uninoculated control. It was noticed that reduction in root fresh weight was less than shoot especially at higher initial population. Reproduction of nematode was observed inversely proportional to intial population (on 50 J2/Pot, Rf = 196.64 and 15000 J2/Pot, Rf = 3.60). PMID:17390808

  13. Population versus Customized Fetal Growth Norms and Adverse Outcomes in an Intrapartum Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Costantine, Maged M.; Lai, Yinglei; Bloom, Steven L.; Spong, Catherine Y.; Varner, Michael W.; Rouse, Dwight J.; Ramin, Susan M.; Caritis, Steve N.; Peaceman, Alan M.; Sorokin, Yoram; Sciscione, Anthony; Mercer, Brian M.; Thorp, John M.; Malone, Fergal D.; Harper, Margaret; Iams, Jay D.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To compare population versus customized fetal growth norms in identifying neonates at risk for adverse outcomes (APO) associated with small for gestational age (SGA). Study Design Secondary analysis of an intrapartum fetal pulse oximetry trial in nulliparous women at term. Birthweight percentiles were calculated using ethnicity- & gender-specific population norms and customized norms (Gardosi). Results 508 (9.9%) and 584 (11.3%) neonates were SGA by population (SGApop) and customized (SGAcust) norms. SGApop infants were significantly associated with a composite adverse neonatal outcome, neonatal intensive care admission, low fetal oxygen saturation and reduced risk of cesarean delivery; while both SGApop and SGAcust were associated with a 5-minute Apgar score < 4. The ability of customized and population birthweight percentiles in predicting APO was poor (12 out of 14 APOs had AUC <0.6). Conclusion In this intrapartum cohort, neither customized nor normalized-population norms adequately identify neonates at risk of APO related to SGA. PMID:22893556

  14. EFFECT OF FLUID SHEAR AND IRRADIANCE ON POPULATION GROWTH AND CELLULAR TOXIN CONTENT OF THE DINOFLAGELLATE ALEXANDRIUM FUNDYENSE.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential for in situ turbulence to inhibit dinoflagellate population growth has been demonstrated by experimentally exposing dinoflagellate cultures to quantified shear flow. However, despite interest in understanding environmental factors that affect the growth of toxic din...

  15. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in which to…

  16. Validity of Personal Growth Initiative Scale Scores with a Mexican American College Student Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robitschek, Christine

    2003-01-01

    This study tested the validity of scores on the Personal Growth Initiative Scale (PGIS; C. Robitschek, 1998, 1999) with a Mexican American college student sample. Results indicated that the PGIS scores appear to be culturally relevant for this population, with scores on the PGIS having many similar relations with other variables that have been…

  17. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  18. Rapid Population Growth and Rural Community Change: A Focus on Land Use Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garkovich, Lorraine

    Land use controls are often a major point of conflict between recent migrants and long-term residents of rapidly growing communities. Such conflict was noted in a case study of a rural community undergoing rapid population growth. The revision of a comprehensive land use plan for the community provided the opportunity to evaluate citizen…

  19. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  20. Population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus at constant temperatures and relative humidities

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus Enderlein. Part of this study assessed the effects of marking psocids using methylene blue, chalk powder, and fluorescent powder to differentiate nymphal stages d...

  1. Potential effects of environmental contamination on Yuma Myotis demography and population growth.

    PubMed

    Frick, Winifred F; Rainey, William E; Pierson, Elizabeth D

    2007-06-01

    Unplanned natural and anthropogenic disasters provide unique opportunities for investigating the influence of perturbations on population vital rates and species recovery times. We investigated the potential effects of a major pesticide spill by comparing annual survival rates using mark-recapture techniques on a riparian bat species, Yuma Myotis (Myotis yumanensis). Demography and population dynamics for most bat species remain poorly understood despite advances in mark-recapture estimation and modeling techniques. We compared survival and population growth rates of two roost populations exposed to a large chemical (metam sodium) spill in the upper Sacramento River in Northern California with two roost populations outside the contaminated area from 1992 to 1996. Hypotheses about long-term effects of the spill on female juvenile and adult survival were tested using an information-theoretic approach (AIC). Working hypotheses included effects of age, chemical spill, and time trend on survival. Female adult survival was higher than female juvenile survival across all sites, suggesting stage-specific mortality risks. Model-averaged estimates of female juvenile survival in the contaminated area (0.50-0.74) were lower than in control roosts (0.60-0.78) for each year in the study, suggesting that the spill may have reduced juvenile survival for several years. Female adult survival (0.73-0.89) did not appear to be strongly affected by the spill during the years of the study. There was an increase in survival for both stage-classes across all populations during the study period, which may have been caused by the end of an extended drought in California in the winter of 1993. The spill-affected population was in decline for the first year of the study as indicated by an estimated growth rate (lambda) < 1, but population growth rates increased during the four-year period. PMID:17555229

  2. Growth and Competitive Effects of Centaurea stoebe Populations in Response to Simulated Nitrogen Deposition

    PubMed Central

    He, Wei-Ming; Montesinos, Daniel; Thelen, Giles C.; Callaway, Ragan M.

    2012-01-01

    Increased resource availability can promote invasion by exotic plants, raising concerns over the potential effects of global increases in the deposition of nitrogen (N). It is poorly understood why increased N favors exotics over natives. Fast growth may be a general trait of good invaders and these species may have exceptional abilities to increase growth rates in response to N deposition. Additionally, invaders commonly displace locals, and thus may have inherently greater competitive abilities. The mean growth response of Centaurea stoebe to two N levels was significantly greater than that of North American (NA) species. Growth responses to N did not vary among C. stoebe populations or NA species. Without supplemental N, NA species were better competitors than C. stoebe, and C. stoebe populations varied in competitive effects. The competitive effects of C. stoebe populations increased with N whereas the competitive effects of NA species decreased, eliminating the overall competitive advantage demonstrated by NA species in soil without N added. These results suggest that simulated N deposition may enhance C. stoebe invasion through increasing its growth and relative competitive advantage, and also indicate the possibility of local adaptation in competitive effects across the introduced range of an invader. PMID:22563451

  3. Association with pathogenic bacteria affects life-history traits and population growth in Caenorhabditis elegans.

    PubMed

    Diaz, S Anaid; Mooring, Eric Q; Rens, Elisabeth G; Restif, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    Determining the relationship between individual life-history traits and population dynamics is an essential step to understand and predict natural selection. Model organisms that can be conveniently studied experimentally at both levels are invaluable to test the rich body of theoretical literature in this area. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, despite being a well-established workhorse in genetics, has only recently received attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists, especially with respect to its association with pathogenic bacteria. In order to start filling the gap between the two areas, we conducted a series of experiments aiming at measuring life-history traits as well as population growth of C.elegans in response to three different bacterial strains: Escherichia coli OP50, Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1. Whereas previous studies had established that the latter two reduced the survival of nematodes feeding on them compared to E.coli OP50, we report for the first time an enhancement in reproductive success and population growth for worms feeding on S.enterica Typhimurium. Furthermore, we used an age-specific population dynamic model, parameterized using individual life-history assays, to successfully predict the growth of populations over three generations. This study paves the way for more detailed and quantitative experimental investigation of the ecology and evolution of C.elegans and the bacteria it interacts with, which could improve our understanding of the fate of opportunistic pathogens in the environment. PMID:25937908

  4. Uncertainty in Population Growth Rates: Determining Confidence Intervals from Point Estimates of Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Devenish Nelson, Eleanor S.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl D.; Richards, Shane A.; Stephens, Philip A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. Conclusions/Significance Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species. PMID:21049049

  5. Association with pathogenic bacteria affects life-history traits and population growth in Caenorhabditis elegans

    PubMed Central

    Diaz, S Anaid; Mooring, Eric Q; Rens, Elisabeth G; Restif, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Determining the relationship between individual life-history traits and population dynamics is an essential step to understand and predict natural selection. Model organisms that can be conveniently studied experimentally at both levels are invaluable to test the rich body of theoretical literature in this area. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, despite being a well-established workhorse in genetics, has only recently received attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists, especially with respect to its association with pathogenic bacteria. In order to start filling the gap between the two areas, we conducted a series of experiments aiming at measuring life-history traits as well as population growth of C. elegans in response to three different bacterial strains: Escherichia coli OP50, Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1. Whereas previous studies had established that the latter two reduced the survival of nematodes feeding on them compared to E. coli OP50, we report for the first time an enhancement in reproductive success and population growth for worms feeding on S. enterica Typhimurium. Furthermore, we used an age-specific population dynamic model, parameterized using individual life-history assays, to successfully predict the growth of populations over three generations. This study paves the way for more detailed and quantitative experimental investigation of the ecology and evolution of C. elegans and the bacteria it interacts with, which could improve our understanding of the fate of opportunistic pathogens in the environment. PMID:25937908

  6. Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

    PubMed

    Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

    2011-12-01

    Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity. PMID:22518917

  7. Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time

    PubMed Central

    Coulson, T; Benton, T.G; Lundberg, P; Dall, S.R.X; Kendall, B.E; Gaillard, J.-M

    2005-01-01

    Ecological and evolutionary change is generated by variation in individual performance. Biologists have consequently long been interested in decomposing change measured at the population level into contributions from individuals, the traits they express and the alleles they carry. We present a novel method of estimating individual contributions to population growth and changes in distributions of quantitative traits and alleles. An individual's contribution to population growth is an individual's realized annual fitness. We demonstrate how the quantities we develop can be used to address a range of empirical questions, and provide an application to a detailed dataset of Soay sheep. The approach provides results that are consistent with those obtained using lifetime estimates of individual performance, yet is substantially more powerful as it allows lifetime performance to be decomposed into annual survival and fecundity contributions. PMID:16537125

  8. Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time.

    PubMed

    Coulson, T; Benton, T G; Lundberg, P; Dall, S R X; Kendall, B E; Gaillard, J-M

    2006-03-01

    Ecological and evolutionary change is generated by variation in individual performance. Biologists have consequently long been interested in decomposing change measured at the population level into contributions from individuals, the traits they express and the alleles they carry. We present a novel method of estimating individual contributions to population growth and changes in distributions of quantitative traits and alleles. An individual's contribution to population growth is an individual's realized annual fitness. We demonstrate how the quantities we develop can be used to address a range of empirical questions, and provide an application to a detailed dataset of Soay sheep. The approach provides results that are consistent with those obtained using lifetime estimates of individual performance, yet is substantially more powerful as it allows lifetime performance to be decomposed into annual survival and fecundity contributions. PMID:16537125

  9. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-09-29

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  10. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed Central

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-01-01

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  11. Population growth of Nassella trichotoma in grasslands in New Zealand slower today than in the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamoureaux, Shona L.; Bourdôt, Graeme W.; Saville, David J.

    2011-09-01

    Nassella trichotoma established in modified tussock-grasslands in New Zealand from about 1860. Management programmes since 1946 have reduced populations to levels no longer impacting pastoral production. Optimising future management requires knowledge of the trajectory of population growth and its regulating demographic processes. To that end, four long-term field experiments were conducted. Net reproductive rate varied from 1.021 to 1.237 year -1 and growth in plant basal diameter from 8.1 to 16.6 mm year -1. The probability of flowering increased with basal diameter and was essentially unity above 50 mm diameter. Populations grubbed annually declined abruptly but recruitment was unaffected and extinction did not occur. Of seeds sown into disturbed and intact pastures, 0-51% produced seedlings and more arose on sunny slopes and from disturbed than intact pasture. Death rates were high; 7 years after sowing, surviving plants represented only 0-9% of the seed sown. Seeds buried 25 mm deep in the pasture litter on two occasions declined in viability at rates of 74 and 89% in the first year and first three months respectively and 26 and 0% year -1 thereafter. Seed production plant -1 (square root scale) increased linearly with plant basal diameter; for example, plants of 11 and 100 mm diameter are predicted to produce 0 and 11,092 spikelets (each with one seed) respectively. We estimate that a N. trichotoma population today will, in the absence of management, take 210 years to increase to 90% of its carrying capacity supporting the hypothesis that population growth in this species is slower than occurred historically. We show that the rates of some demographic processes may be much lower than in the past and suggest this is due to more competitive vegetation resulting from improved management. The size-dependence of many processes supports the need for a size-structured model to explain population growth in this weed.

  12. Trends of population growth in China: maximum number will exceed 1.5 billion.

    PubMed

    Lin, F; Liu, J

    1996-02-01

    Population estimates are generated to the end of the year 2000 for China based on the urbanization method, the fertility transition method, and the regional projection method. The urbanization method uses a fitting function of the total fertility rate at a medium variant with the provincial level of urbanization. The urbanization rate is set at 65% at the mid-21st century point. The fertility transition method uses the medium variant of the total fertility rate (2.0) until the year 2000 and then applies a declining rate to 1.8 children per woman. The regional projection method uses a variety of rates of fertility decline. Total population by the year 2000 is expected to be 1.302 billion based on the urbanization method, 1.288 billion based on the fertility transition method, and 1.300 billion based on the regional projection method. Estimated potential maximum size would be, respectively, 1.544 billion by 2035, 1.519 billion by 2033, and 1.539 billion by 2034. It is considered reasonable that the annual growth rate of China's population of 12.5 per thousand can be maintained. With such a growth rate and a medium variant projection, it is estimated that maximum population size would be 1.554 billion by the mid-2030s. Zero population growth would be reached in 2035. Negative growth would occur thereafter. Under the low variant, estimated population size during 1995 and every 10 years during 2000-2040 would be, respectively, 1.212, 1.272, 1.352, 1.419, 1.441, and 1.415 in billions. The low variant would maintain a total fertility rate at 1.7 until the year 2000 and thereafter. Figures are provided for the same period for the medium and high variant estimates. It is anticipated that the total working age population would reach 774.23 million by the year 2000 (410.97 million males aged 16-59 years and 363.55 million females aged 16-54 years) and exceed 893 million by 2020 (483.55 million males and 409.50 million females). The aged population over 65 years of age would become 20% of total population. Persons aged 60 years and older would constitute 25% of total population. The dependency ratios would put pressure on society. PMID:12291336

  13. Do rhizome severing and shoot defoliation affect clonal growth of Leymus chinensis at ramet population level?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengwen; Li, Linghao; Han, Xingguo; Dong, Ming

    2004-12-01

    Leymus chinensis (Trin.) Tzvel. is a perennial species of Gramineae, usually subject to defoliation from grazing and mowing. We examined whether shoot defoliation and rhizome severing affected rhizome and ramet growth, and vegetative bud outgrowth of L. chinensis ramet populations. We also tested the hypothesis that clonal growth of the ramets subject to defoliation would benefit from clonal integration between interconnected ramets besides from possible compensatory growth. To 48 experimental plots, we applied six treatments resulting from interactions between two rhizome connection states (unsevered/severed) and three defoliation regimes (non-defoliated, mildly-defoliated and heavily-defoliated). Defoliation affected rhizome growth and bud outgrowth, but had little effect on shoot growth. Mild and heavy defoliation exerted similar effects on rhizome growth. Only heavy defoliation significantly reduced bud outgrowth while mild defoliation did not. The fact that shoot growth did not change after defoliation and that the bud numbers remained unchanged after mild defoliation suggest that the compensatory response enable the species to tolerate grazing to some extent. Neither rhizome severing nor the interaction of rhizome severing and defoliation had effect on any tested variables. Lack of the effect of rhizome severing falsified the first half of our hypothesis, that is, clonal integration was unimportant in our experiment. The probable reasons were suspected to be the short duration of the experiment and/or the buffer effect of carbohydrate reserves in rhizomes for shoot growth and bud production in time of defoliation.

  14. Exponential Size Distribution of von Willebrand Factor

    PubMed Central

    Lippok, Svenja; Obser, Tobias; Müller, Jochen P.; Stierle, Valentin K.; Benoit, Martin; Budde, Ulrich; Schneppenheim, Reinhard; Rädler, Joachim O.

    2013-01-01

    Von Willebrand Factor (VWF) is a multimeric protein crucial for hemostasis. Under shear flow, it acts as a mechanosensor responding with a size-dependent globule-stretch transition to increasing shear rates. Here, we quantify for the first time, to our knowledge, the size distribution of recombinant VWF and VWF-eGFP using a multilateral approach that involves quantitative gel analysis, fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, and total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy. We find an exponentially decaying size distribution of multimers for recombinant VWF as well as for VWF derived from blood samples in accordance with the notion of a step-growth polymerization process during VWF biosynthesis. The distribution is solely described by the extent of polymerization, which was found to be reduced in the case of the pathologically relevant mutant VWF-IIC. The VWF-specific protease ADAMTS13 systematically shifts the VWF size distribution toward smaller sizes. This dynamic evolution is monitored using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy and compared to a computer simulation of a random cleavage process relating ADAMTS13 concentration to the degree of VWF breakdown. Quantitative assessment of VWF size distribution in terms of an exponential might prove to be useful both as a valuable biophysical characterization and as a possible disease indicator for clinical applications. PMID:24010664

  15. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal. PMID:26078856

  16. Variation in a natural population of Schizophyllum commune. Variation within the extreme isolates for growth rate.

    PubMed

    Williams, S; Verma, M M; Jinks, J L; Brasier, C M

    1976-12-01

    Two extreme dikaryotic idolates chosen from a large sample of a localised population of Schizophyllum commune exhibited a considerable amount of genetical variation for growth rate at the near ambient temperature of 20 degrees C and at the higher temperature of 30 degrees C. The potential variation within these extreme isolates were greater than the variation observed in the whole sample. Regression analysis of the variation in growth rate of the dikaryotic progeny of the extreme isolates on that of their component monokaryons showed that the nature of gene action was not the same in these two stages of the life cycle. The simple additive-dominance model of gene action was adequate to explain the variation in growth rate in both of the extreme isolates at both of the temperatures. The small deviations from this model could be accounted for by unequal gene frequencies due to small sample size although a low incidence of non-allelic interactions could not be rule out. Directional dominance for growth rate was detected in both isolates at the more normal temperature and it was opposing in direction in the two isolates. In the slow growing isolate the dominance was for faster growth and in the fast growing isolate it was for slower growth. This is expected for a character which displays overall ambi-directional dominance if isolates with more extreme growth rates than those recovered in the population sample are eliminated by stabilising selection. The dominance is temperature dependent being ambi-directional in both isolates at the higher temperature. Environmental heterogeneity, the buffering effects of directional dominance and genotype-environment interactions and opposing selective forces operating on the monokaryotic and dikaryotic stages of the life cycle are possible contributory factors to the considerable free and potential variability displayed in this small, localised population. PMID:1070485

  17. Exponential Formulae and Effective Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mielnik, Bogdan; Fernandez, David J. C.

    1996-01-01

    One of standard methods to predict the phenomena of squeezing consists in splitting the unitary evolution operator into the product of simpler operations. The technique, while mathematically general, is not so simple in applications and leaves some pragmatic problems open. We report an extended class of exponential formulae, which yield a quicker insight into the laboratory details for a class of squeezing operations, and moreover, can be alternatively used to programme different type of operations, as: (1) the free evolution inversion; and (2) the soft simulations of the sharp kicks (so that all abstract results involving the kicks of the oscillator potential, become realistic laboratory prescriptions).

  18. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

    PubMed

    Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

    2013-11-01

    1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05C per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. 0.1C per year). The Euler-Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in rm when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on rm may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time-scales and under slow warming regimes. PMID:23926903

  19. The use of intraallelic variability for testing neutrality and estimating population growth rate.

    PubMed Central

    Slatkin, M; Bertorelle, G

    2001-01-01

    To better understand the forces affecting individual alleles, we introduce a method for finding the joint distribution of the frequency of a neutral allele and the extent of variability at closely linked marker loci (the intraallelic variability). We model three types of intraallelic variability: (a) the number of nonrecombinants at a linked biallelic marker locus, (b) the length of a conserved haplotype, and (c) the number of mutations at a linked marker locus. If the population growth rate is known, the joint distribution provides the basis for a test of neutrality by testing whether the observed level of intraallelic variability is consistent with the observed allele frequency. If the population growth rate is unknown but neutrality can be assumed, the joint distribution provides the likelihood of the growth rate and leads to a maximum-likelihood estimate. We apply the method to data from published data sets for four loci in humans. We conclude that the Delta32 allele at CCR5 and a disease-associated allele at MLH1 arose recently and have been subject to strong selection. Alleles at PAH appear to be neutral and we estimate the recent growth rate of the European population to be approximately 0.027 per generation with a support interval of (0.017-0.037). Four of the relatively common alleles at CFTR also appear to be neutral but DeltaF508 appears to be significantly advantageous to heterozygous carriers. PMID:11404347

  20. Population ecology of the gulf ribbed mussel across a salinity gradient: recruitment, growth and density

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Honig, Aaron; Supan, John; LaPeyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and promoting productivity. As such, changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences. Recruitment, growth, mortality, population size structure and density of the gulf coast ribbed mussel, Geukensia granosissima, were examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana. Data were collected along 100-m transects at interior and edge marsh plots located at duplicate sites in upper (salinity ~4 psu), central (salinity ~8 psu) and lower (salinity ~15 psu) Barataria Bay, Louisiana, U.S.A. Growth, mortality and recruitment were measured in established plots from April through November 2012. Mussel densities were greatest within the middle bay (salinity ~8) regardless of flooding regime, but strongly associated with highest stem densities of Juncus roemerianus vegetation. Mussel recruitment, growth, size and survival were significantly higher at mid and high salinity marsh edge sites as compared to all interior marsh and low salinity sites. The observed patterns of density, growth and mortality in Barataria Bay may reflect detrital food resource availability, host vegetation community distribution along the salinity gradient, salinity tolerance of the mussel, and reduced predation at higher salinity edge sites.

  1. Growth in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Capacity Relative to Population and Disease Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Langabeer, James R.; Henry, Timothy D.; Kereiakes, Dean J.; DelliFraine, Jami; Emert, Jamie; Wang, Zheng; Stuart, Leilani; King, Richard; Segrest, Wendy; Moyer, Peter; Jollis, James G.

    2013-01-01

    Background The access to and growth of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has not been fully explored with regard to geographic equity and need. Economic factors and timely access to primary PCI provide the impetus for growth in PCI centers, and this is balanced by volume standards and the benefits of regionalized care. Methods and Results Geospatial and statistical analyses were used to model capacity, growth, and access of PCI hospitals relative to population density and myocardial infarction (MI) prevalence at the state level. Longitudinal data were obtained for 20032011 from the American Hospital Association, the U.S. Census, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with geographical modeling to map PCI locations. The number of PCI centers has grown 21.2% over the last 8 years, with 39% of all hospitals having interventional cardiology capabilities. During the same time, the US population has grown 8.3%, from 217 million to 235 million, and MI prevalence rates have decreased from 4.0% to 3.7%. The most densely concentrated states have a ratio of 8.1 to 12.1 PCI facilities per million of population with significant variability in both MI prevalence and average distance between PCI facilities. Conclusions Over the last decade, the growth rate for PCI centers is 1.5 that of the population growth, while MI prevalence is decreasing. This has created geographic imbalances and access barriers with excess PCI centers relative to need in some regions and inadequate access in others. PMID:24166491

  2. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

    PubMed Central

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

  3. The effects of population density on juvenile growth rate in white-tailed deer.

    PubMed

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn. PMID:25148782

  4. The Effects of Population Density on Juvenile Growth Rate in White-Tailed Deer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn.

  5. Measuring selection in human populations using the growth rate per generation.

    PubMed

    Ewbank, Douglas

    2016-04-19

    Estimates of the speed of evolution between generations depend on the association between individual traits and a measure of fitness. The two most frequently used measures of fitness are the net reproduction rate and the 1-year growth factor implied by the fertility and mortality rates. Results based on the two lead to very different results. The reason is that the 1-year growth factor is not a measure of change between generations. Therefore, studies of changes between generations should use the amount of growth over the length of a generation. This is especially important for studies of human populations because of the long length of generation. In addition, estimates based on a single year's growth are overly sensitive to data on individuals who fail to reproduce. The effects of using a generational measure are demonstrated using data from Kenya and Ukraine. These results demonstrate that using a 1-year growth rate to measure fitness leads to estimates that understate the rate at which evolution changes the characteristics of a human population. PMID:27022075

  6. Spatially Directed Guidance of Stem Cell Population Migration by Immobilized Patterns of Growth Factors

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Eric D.; Li, Kang; Kanade, Takeo; Weiss, Lee E.; Walker, Lynn M.; Campbell, Phil G.

    2011-01-01

    We investigated how engineered gradients of exogenous growth factors, immobilized to an extracellular matrix material, influence collective guidance of stem cell populations over extended time (>1 day) and length (>1 mm) scales in vitro. Patterns of low-to-high, high-to-low, and uniform concentrations of heparin-binding epidermal growth factor-like growth factor were inkjet printed at precise locations on fibrin substrates. Proliferation and migration responses of mesenchymal stem cells seeded at pattern origins were observed with time-lapse video microscopy and analyzed using both manual and automated computer vision-based cell tracking techniques. Based on results of established chemotaxis studies, we expected that the low-to-high gradient would most effectively direct cell guidance away from the cell source. All printed patterns, however, were found to direct net collective cell guidance with comparable responses. Our analysis revealed that collective “cell diffusion” down a cell-to-cell confinement gradient originating at the cell starting lines and not the net sum of directed individual cell migration up a growth factor concentration gradient is the principal driving force for directing mesenchymal stem cell population outgrowth from a cell source. These results suggest that simple uniform distributions of growth factors immobilized to an extracellular matrix material may be as effective in directing cell migration into a wound site as more complex patterns with concentration gradients. PMID:21272933

  7. Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Lauren L; Danielson, Brent J; Harpole, W Stanley

    2016-01-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore functioning plant communities. PMID:26849564

  8. Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species

    PubMed Central

    Sullivan, Lauren L.; Danielson, Brent J.; Harpole, W. Stanley

    2016-01-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore functioning plant communities. PMID:26849564

  9. Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate

    PubMed Central

    Edeline, Eric; Haugen, Thrond O.; Weltzien, Finn-Arne; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Vllestad, L. Asbjrn

    2010-01-01

    Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (?) by 3756%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of ? to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics. PMID:19923130

  10. Effects of population increase on cui-ui growth and maturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scoppettone, G.G.; Rissler, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Cui-ui Chasmistes cujus is endemic to Pyramid Lake, Nevada. The cui-ui population declined during much of the 20th century as a result of water diversion and the formation of a shallow and virtually impassable delta at the mouth of the Truckee River, its spawning habitat. The population increased more than 10-fold to more than 1 million adults after access to the river was restored, creating a period of relatively higher density. This change presented the opportunity to test intraspecific density effects on cui-ui age and length at maturity and on growth. We also compared the year-class structure of the adult population before and after improved access. At low density, cui-ui mean age at maturation was 9.2 years for males and 9.6 for females; at high density, it was significantly higher: 11.8 years for males and 12.0 for females. There was no significant change in mean fork length at maturity related to population increase. Growth patterns differed between high and low density, the low-density fish growing faster than high-density fish before their respective mean age of maturity; past their mean age at maturity, high-density fish grew significantly faster than low-density fish. Fish in both density periods reached similar lengths by about 19-20 years of age. Year-class structure for both density periods consisted of strong year-classes, which predominated the adult population for several years.

  11. Population Growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on Winter Cover Crops Grown in the Pacific Northwest

    PubMed Central

    Forge, T. A.; Ingham, R. E.; Kaufman, D.; Pinkerton, J. N.

    2000-01-01

    Population growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on 13 fall and winter cover crops was studied in the greenhouse and field. All crops except oat cv. Saia supported population growth of P. penetrans in greenhouse experiments, although the response of P. penetrans to oat cv. Saia varied considerably between experiments. The mean ratio of the final population density/initial population density (Pf/Pi) after 16 weeks for P. penetrans added to a greenhouse soil mix was 0.09, whereas Pf/Pi values after 10 weeks for two experiments with naturally infested soil were 0.95 and 2.3. Although P. penetrans increased on sudangrass cv. Trudan 8 and sudangrass × sorghum hybrid cv. SS 222, subsequent incorporation of sudangrass vegetation into soil reduced P. penetrans populations to preplant levels. Field experiments were inconclusive but suggested that oat cv. Saia or rye cv. Wheeler may be better choices for winter cover than weed-contaminated fallow or other crops on P. penetrans-infested sites in the Pacific Northwest. PMID:19270948

  12. The evolution of paternal care can lead to population growth in artificial societies.

    PubMed

    Salgado, Mauricio

    2015-09-01

    Evolutionary models of paternal care predict that when female reproductive effort is higher than male reproductive effort, selection might favour the emergence of unconditional male cooperation towards females, even when the latter group does not reciprocate. However, previous models have assumed constant population sizes, so the ecology of interacting individuals and its effects on population dynamics have been neglected. This paper reports an agent-based model that incorporates ecological dynamics into evolutionary game dynamics by allowing populations to vary. As previous models demonstrate, paternal care only evolves when female reproductive effort is higher than that of males, and the optimal strategy for females is to exploit male unconditional cooperation. The model also shows that evolution of this behaviour drives some simulations towards regimes of population growth. Thanks to the evolution of paternal care, females׳ inter-birth intervals are shortened and causing them to reproduce faster. Thus, it is suggested that the evolution of paternal care in species with differential reproductive effort between sexes could be associated to population growth. Nevertheless, the modelled evolutionary dynamics are stochastic, so differences in reproductive effort are necessary but not sufficient conditions for the evolution of paternal care. PMID:26051195

  13. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

    PubMed Central

    Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-01-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  14. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India.

    PubMed

    Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-03-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  15. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  16. Population Growth in New Hampshire during the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Studies in New England Geography, Number 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobart, Christine L.

    This paper traces the shifts in New Hampshire's state and county population during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, focusing on the growth of urban centers and industry. From 1790 to 1840 most of New Hampshire's population growth was agricultural despite the beginnings of industrialization and urbanization. These processes greatly…

  17. Population Growth in New Hampshire during the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Studies in New England Geography, Number 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobart, Christine L.

    This paper traces the shifts in New Hampshire's state and county population during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, focusing on the growth of urban centers and industry. From 1790 to 1840 most of New Hampshire's population growth was agricultural despite the beginnings of industrialization and urbanization. These processes greatly

  18. The Exponential Function, XI: The New Flat Earth Society.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartlett, Albert A.

    1996-01-01

    Discusses issues related to perpetual population growth. Argues that if we believe that there are no limits to growth, we will have to abandon the concept of a spherical Earth which puts limits to growth. (JRH)

  19. Age, growth, and mortality of introduced flathead catfish in Atlantic rivers and a review of other populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kwak, T.J.; Pine, William E., III; Waters, D.S.

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of individual growth and mortality rates of an introduced fish population is required to determine the success and degree of establishment as well as to predict the fish's impact on native fauna. The age and growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris have been studied extensively in the species' native and introduced ranges, and estimates have varied widely. We quantified individual growth rates and age structure of three introduced flathead catfish populations in North Carolina's Atlantic slope rivers using sagittal otoliths, determined trends in growth rates over time, compared these estimates among rivers in native and introduced ranges, and determined total mortality rates for each population. Growth was significantly faster in the Northeast Cape Fear River (NECFR) than in the Lumber and Neuse rivers. Fish in the NECFR grew to a total length of 700 mm by age 7, whereas fish in the Neuse and Lumber river populations reached this length by 8 and 10 years, respectively. The growth rates of fish in all three rivers were consistently higher than those of native riverine populations, similar to those of native reservoir populations, and slower than those of other introduced riverine populations. In general, recent cohorts (1998-2001 year-classes) in these three rivers exhibited slower growth among all ages than did cohorts previous to the 1998 year-class. The annual total mortality rate was similar among the three rivers, ranging from 0.16 to 0.20. These mortality estimates are considerably lower than those from the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, suggesting relatively low fishing mortality for these introduced populations. Overall, flathead catfish populations in reservoirs grow faster than those in rivers, the growth rates of introduced populations exceed those of native populations, and eastern United States populations grow faster than those in western states. Such trends constitute critical information for understanding and managing local populations.

  20. Effects of growth phase and temperature on σB activity within a Listeria monocytogenes population: evidence for RsbV-independent activation of σB at refrigeration temperatures.

    PubMed

    Utratna, Marta; Cosgrave, Eoin; Baustian, Claas; Ceredig, Rhodri H; O'Byrne, Conor P

    2014-01-01

    The alternative sigma factor σB of Listeria monocytogenes is responsible for regulating the transcription of many of the genes necessary for adaptation to both food-related stresses and to conditions found within the gastrointestinal tract of the host. The present study sought to investigate the influence of growth phase and temperature on the activation of σB within populations of L. monocytogenes EGD-e wild-type, ΔsigB, and ΔrsbV throughout growth at both 4°C and 37°C, using a reporter fusion that couples expression of EGFP to the strongly σB-dependent promoter of lmo2230. A similar σB activation pattern within the population was observed in wt-egfp at both temperatures, with the highest induction of σB occurring in the early exponential phase of growth when the fluorescent population rapidly increased, eventually reaching the maximum in early stationary phase. Interestingly, induction of σB activity was heterogeneous, with only a proportion of the cells in the wt-egfp population being fluorescent above the background autofluorescence level. Moreover, significant RsbV-independent activation of σB was observed during growth at 4°C. This result suggests that an alternative route to σB activation exists in the absence of RsbV, a finding that is not explained by the current model for σB regulation. PMID:24734238

  1. Bot fly parasitism of the red-backed vole: host survival, infection risk, and population growth.

    PubMed

    Lemaître, Jérôme; Fortin, Daniel; Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Darveau, Marcel

    2009-03-01

    Parasites can play an important role in the dynamics of host populations, but empirical evidence remains sparse. We investigated the role of bot fly (Cuterebra spp.) parasitism in red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) by first assessing the impacts of the parasite on the probability of vole survival under stressful conditions as well as on the reproductive activity of females. We then identified the main factors driving both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies inside red-backed voles. Finally, we evaluated the impacts of bot fly prevalence on the growth rate of vole populations between mid-July and mid-August. Thirty-six populations of red-backed voles were sampled in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. The presence and the abundance of parasites in voles, two host life history traits (sex and body condition), three indices of habitat complexity (tree basal area, sapling basal area, coarse woody debris volume), and vole abundance were considered in models evaluating the effects of bot flies on host populations. We found that the probability of survival of red-backed voles in live traps decreased with bot fly infection. Both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies in red-backed voles were driven mainly by vole abundance rather than by the two host life history traits or the three variables of habitat complexity. Parasitism had population consequences: bot fly prevalence was linked to a decrease in short-term growth rate of vole populations over the summer. We found that bot flies have the potential to reduce survival of red-backed voles, an effect that may apply to large portions of populations. PMID:19011904

  2. Models for optimal harvest with convex function of growth rate of a population

    SciTech Connect

    Lyashenko, O.I.

    1995-12-10

    Two models for growth of a population, which are described by a Cauchy problem for an ordinary differential equation with right-hand side depending on the population size and time, are investigated. The first model is time-discrete, i.e., the moments of harvest are fixed and discrete. The second model is time-continuous, i.e., a crop is harvested continuously in time. For autonomous systems, the second model is a particular case of the variational model for optimal control with constraints investigated in. However, the prerequisites and the method of investigation are somewhat different, for they are based on Lemma 1 presented below. In this paper, the existence and uniqueness theorem for the solution of the discrete and continuous problems of optimal harvest is proved, and the corresponding algorithms are presented. The results obtained are illustrated by a model for growth of the light-requiring green alga Chlorella.

  3. Optical micromanipulation of mixed yeast cell populations for analyzing growth behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glueckstad, Jesper; Rodrigo, Peter J.; Daria, Vincent R.; Siegumfeldt, Henrik; Nissen, Peter; Arneborg, Nils

    2005-03-01

    We use spatially sculptured light for user-interactive micromanipulation of mixed yeast cell populations to analyze growth behavioural patterns. There is negligible absorption in the near-infrared region of the light spectrum making it suitable for direct manipulation of individual cells in a growing population. Rather than using a single-beam optical trap, multiple cells are manipulated using a system based on the Generalized Phase Contrast (GPC) method, which allows arbitrary trapping configurations i.e. control over the number of traps, and the size/shape of each trap. This enables the cells to be selectively trapped in all three-dimensions (3D) and manipulated in real-time while under direct observation. Here, we impose controlled experiments using these multiple 3D optical traps to show the alteration of growth patterns in mixed cultures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Hanseniaspora uvarum experiencing spatially constrained conditions.

  4. Effects of density and fire on the vital rates and population growth of a perennial goldenaster

    PubMed Central

    Gornish, Elise S.

    2013-01-01

    Intraspecific density effects are generally associated with other factors, like disturbance. Therefore, the ways in which density effects might interact with disturbance to modify the relationships between vital rates and population growth must be understood. I quantified the effects of density on the life-history stages of the perennial composite Pityopsis aspera over 3 years, the span of which included years in which fire did and did not occur. In an experimental study, I estimated the survival, growth and reproduction for shoots in plots established across a natural range of densities in Florida, USA. In a novel analysis, a regression-design life-table response experiment was used to determine which transitions were associated with density, how they contributed to differences in estimated population growth rates and how this relationship differed as a result of fire. The shape of the relationship between population growth rate (λ) and density was modified by fire, primarily as a result of contributions from adult flowering stasis and survival, and first-year survival probabilities. Fire modified and even reversed the effect of extreme densities on adult flowering stasis and survival and of first-year survival, resulting in more positive contributions from these transitions to λ at the lowest and highest density values. These results demonstrate the first application of a regression-design life-table response experiment to elucidating the interactive effects of density and fire. They highlight the utility of this approach for both capturing the complex dynamics of populations and establishing a means of determining how vital rates might contribute to differences in demography across densities.

  5. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

  6. Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I.; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M.; Parker, Corette B.; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M.; Dudley, Donald J.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Saade, George R.; Koch, Matthew A.; Rowland Hogue, Carol J.; Varner, Michael W.; Conway, Deborah L.; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. Methods and Findings We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (<10th percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (<5th and >95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms based on the subset of stillbirths and live births with non-missing variables showed similar findings. Conclusions Stillbirth is associated with both growth restriction and excessive fetal growth. These findings suggest that, contrary to current practices and recommendations, stillbirth prevention strategies should focus on both severe SGA and severe LGA pregnancies. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24755550

  7. Fully exponentially correlated wavefunctions for small atoms

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, Frank E.

    2015-01-22

    Fully exponentially correlated atomic wavefunctions are constructed from exponentials in all the interparticle coordinates, in contrast to correlated wavefunctions of the Hylleraas form, in which only the electron-nuclear distances occur exponentially, with electron-electron distances entering only as integer powers. The full exponential correlation causes many-configuration wavefunctions to converge with expansion length more rapidly than either orbital formulations or correlated wavefunctions of the Hylleraas type. The present contribution surveys the effectiveness of fully exponentially correlated functions for the three-body system (the He isoelectronic series) and reports their application to a four-body system (the Li atom)

  8. Effect of Microstructure on Population Growth Parameters of Escherichia coli in Gelatin-Dextran Systems

    PubMed Central

    Boons, Kathleen; Noriega, Estefanía; Van den Broeck, Rob; David, Charlotte C.; Hofkens, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Current literature acknowledges the effect of food structure on bacterial dynamics. Most studies introduce this “structure” factor using a single gelling agent, resulting in a homogeneous environment, whereas in practice most food products are heterogeneous. Therefore, this study focuses on heterogeneous protein-polysaccharide mixtures, based on gelatin and dextran. These mixtures show phase separation, leading to a range of heterogeneous microstructures by adjusting relative concentrations of both gelling agents. Based on confocal microscope observations, the growth of Escherichia coli in gelatin-dextran systems was observed to occur in the dextran phase. To find a relation between microscopic and population behavior, growth experiments were performed in binary and singular gelatin-dextran systems and culture broth at 23.5°C, with or without adding 2.9% (wt/vol) NaCl. The Baranyi and Roberts growth model was fitted to the experimental data and parameter estimates were statistically compared. For salted binary mixtures, a decrease in the population maximum cell density was observed with increasing gelatin concentration. In this series, for one type of microstructure, i.e., a gelatin matrix phase with a disperse dextran phase, the maximum cell density decreased with decreasing percentage of dextran phase. However, this relation no longer held when other types of microstructure were observed. Compared to singular systems, adding a second gelling agent in the presence of NaCl had an effect on population lag phases and maximum cell densities. For unsalted media, the growth parameters of singular and binary mixtures were comparable. Introducing this information into mathematical models leads to more reliable growth predictions and enhanced food safety. PMID:24951795

  9. Real-Time Exponential Curve Fits Using Discrete Calculus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowe, Geoffrey

    2010-01-01

    An improved solution for curve fitting data to an exponential equation (y = Ae(exp Bt) + C) has been developed. This improvement is in four areas -- speed, stability, determinant processing time, and the removal of limits. The solution presented avoids iterative techniques and their stability errors by using three mathematical ideas: discrete calculus, a special relationship (be tween exponential curves and the Mean Value Theorem for Derivatives), and a simple linear curve fit algorithm. This method can also be applied to fitting data to the general power law equation y = Ax(exp B) + C and the general geometric growth equation y = Ak(exp Bt) + C.

  10. The relationship between population growth and real assessed market values: note.

    PubMed

    Gamble, H B; Downing, R H

    1985-07-01

    Various indices are commonly used to measure growth or decline in communities and regions, but this article suggests another measure which is fairly easy to obtain--the change over time in real assessed market values. Computer storage and analysis of real estate assessment and sales data make it possible to determine accurate true assessment ratios which can be used to calculate reasonable estimates of market values. This article shows the relationship between population growth from 1970 to 1980 and the changes in real assessed market values of various property classes for over 400 Pennsylvania townships. This can provide insight into the kind and nature of community change. The most noteworthy aspect of these data, not apparent in conventional growth measures, is the magnitude of increases of residential property values in all growth categories, but particularly in the high growth townships. This kind of data could be calculated by countries or by regions; this might be more informative and useful to planners and researchers in such form. Comparing local data to regional, community, or state landmark data can help identify strengths and weaknesses or the particular nature of a community's growth. PMID:12314193

  11. Avoid population growth to reduce water stress and food demand. Prof. Malin Falkenmark on water, food and population.

    PubMed

    1996-01-01

    Global food security is closely linked to the overall availability of water. In some regions of the world, water scarcity will increasingly constrain crop production, forcing a dependency upon food imports. This problem will be particularly acute in dry-climate countries with rapid population growth. Water availability is therefore a fundamental condition for socioeconomic development which requires policymaker attention. Crops depend upon soil moisture and aquifers and rivers. Poor rainfalls and depleted aquifers threaten crop yields. The larger the population, the more water is needed for social and economic needs, including irrigation. However, water for irrigation competes with the water needs of households and industry. Recent research indicates that many dry-climate countries are moving farther away from the possibility of food self-sufficiency. These countries should study their comparative advantages to determine what to export in exchange for food imports from the sub-humid and humid regions of the world. Governments should also promote family planning and the small family norm with the goal of reducing water stress and food demand. PMID:12292040

  12. Child abuse registration, fetal growth, and preterm birth: a population based study

    PubMed Central

    Spencer, Nick; Wallace, Ann; Sundrum, Ratna; Bacchus, Claire; Logan, Stuart

    2006-01-01

    Objectives To study the relation of intra‐uterine growth and gestational age with child protection registration in a 20 year whole population birth cohort. Setting West Sussex area of England. Study design Retrospective whole population birth cohort. Outcomes Child protection registration; individual categories of registration—sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect. Population and participants 119 771 infants born in West Sussex between January 1983 and December 2001 with complete data including birth weight, gestational age, maternal age, and postcode. Results In all categories of registration a linear trend was noted such that the lower the birth weight z score the higher the likelihood of child protection registration. Similar trends were noted for gestational age. All these trends were robust to adjustment for maternal age and socioeconomic status. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that lower levels of fetal growth and shorter gestational duration are associated with increased likelihood of child protection registration in all categories including sexual abuse independent of maternal age or socioeconomic status. This study does not permit comment on whether poor fetal growth or preterm birth predispose to child abuse and neglect or the association arises because they share a common pathway. PMID:16537351

  13. Large nonlethal effects of an invasive invertebrate predator on zooplankton population growth rate.

    PubMed

    Pangle, Kevin L; Peacor, Scott D; Johannsson, Ora E

    2007-02-01

    We conducted a study to determine the contribution of lethal and nonlethal effects to a predator's net effect on a prey's population growth rate in a natural setting. We focused on the effects of an invasive invertebrate predator, Bythotrephes longimanus, on zooplankton prey populations in Lakes Michigan and Erie. Field data taken at multiple dates and locations in both systems indicated that the prey species Daphnia mendotae, Daphnia retrocurva, and Bosmina longirostris inhabited deeper portions of the water column as Bythotrephes biomass increased, possibly as an avoidance response to predation. This induced migration reduces predation risk but also can reduce birth rate due to exposure to cooler temperatures. We estimated the nonlethal (i.e., resulting from reduced birth rate) and lethal (i.e., consumptive) effects of Bythotrephes on D. mendotae and Bosmina longirostris. These estimates used diel field survey data of the vertical gradient of zooplankton prey density, Bythotrephes density, light intensity, and temperature with growth and predation rate models derived from laboratory studies. Results indicate that nonlethal effects played a substantial role in the net effect of Bythotrephes on several prey population growth rates in the field, with nonlethal effects on the same order of magnitude as or greater (up to 10-fold) than lethal effects. Our results further indicate that invasive species can have strong nonlethal, behaviorally based effects, despite short evolutionary coexistence with prey species. PMID:17479758

  14. Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City - A Geospatial Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, M.; Muslim, M.

    2014-11-01

    The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971-2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by 214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated.

  15. Estimation of contributions to population growth: a reverse-time capture-recapture approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

    2000-01-01

    We consider methods for estimating the relative contributions of different demographic components, and their associated vital rates, to population growth. We identify components of the population at time i (including a component for animals not in the population at i). For each such component we ask the following question: 'What is the probability that an individual randomly selected from the population at time i + 1 was a member of this component at i?' The estimation methods for these probabilities ((i) are based on capture-recapture studies of marked animal populations and use reverse-time modeling. We consider several different sampling situations and present example analyses for meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. The relationship between these (i parameters and elasticities (and other parameters based on projection matrix asymptotics) is noted and discussed. We conclude by suggesting that model-based asymptotics be viewed as demographic theory and that direct estimation approaches be used to test this theory with data from sampled populations with marked animals.

  16. Verification of SNPs Associated with Growth Traits in Two Populations of Farmed Atlantic Salmon

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Hsin Y.; Hamilton, Alastair; Guy, Derrick R.; Tinch, Alan E.; Bishop, Steve C.; Houston, Ross D.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between genetic variants and traits of economic importance in aquaculture species is pertinent to selective breeding programmes. High-throughput sequencing technologies have enabled the discovery of large numbers of SNPs in Atlantic salmon, and high density SNP arrays now exist. A previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) using a high density SNP array (132K SNPs) has revealed the polygenic nature of early growth traits in salmon, but has also identified candidate SNPs showing suggestive associations with these traits. The aim of this study was to test the association of the candidate growth-associated SNPs in a separate population of farmed Atlantic salmon to verify their effects. Identifying SNP-trait associations in two populations provides evidence that the associations are true and robust. Using a large cohort (N = 1152), we successfully genotyped eight candidate SNPs from the previous GWAS, two of which were significantly associated with several growth and fillet traits measured at harvest. The genes proximal to these SNPs were identified by alignment to the salmon reference genome and are discussed in the context of their potential role in underpinning genetic variation in salmon growth. PMID:26703584

  17. The impact of population growth on environment: the debate heats up.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1992-02-01

    A proposed framework, which was introduced at the 1989 meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, included political constraints as well as population growth as a proximate cause with potentially important impacts on the environment in Paul and Ann Ehrlich's well-known PAT equation. PAT limitations are identified as the 1.2 billion people caught in the debt-poverty trap, less developed countries' balance of payments deficits, and "distortionary factors" that undermined economic incentives and contributed to mismanagement of resources. Such factors could be keeping farm prices low and have an impact on deterring use of environmentally sound traditional agricultural practices. Mismanagement of public lands occurs when large commercial enterprises or large scale mechanization displace population onto marginal or less productive lands. Intergroup warfare is a new form impacting on the environment. In Burma loggers are authorized to clear cut large tracts of teak forests in order to ferret out Karen guerrillas. Over 15 million refugees were thus displaced and forced to live in encampments that require trees for shelter, firewood for survival, and overgrazing of livestock. Social and economic environments are also undermined by "dependency" factors such as trade protectionism, brain drain, and limited foreign aid. The Group of 77 Non-Aligned Developing Countries proposed that discussions of the links between population and the environment be omitted from the agenda of the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development. Basic clarifications are needed to distinguish ultimate versus proximate factors and current versus future concerns. The debate ignores distribution patterns, migration, or changing age structures. The debate blames unjustifiably rapid population growth as the ultimate cause of global environmental degradation and links population growth to a host of other social problems such as famine and refugees, while ignoring civil unrest. The evidence suggests that population limitation will probably prevent environmental degradation in poor, resource constrained countries from getting worse. Resource conservation will remain unaffected. The World Bank proposes National Environmental Action Plans or the Cleaver Schreiber proposal for a "nexus strategy" for balancing food supply and population in Africa. PMID:12290504

  18. Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

    PubMed Central

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

    2014-01-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

  19. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    PubMed

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L? (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

  20. APPLICATION OF ELASTICITY ANALYSES AND PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN DETERMINING STRESSOR IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND EXTINCTION RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...

  1. Age, growth, and population structure of the smooth clam Callista chione in the eastern Adriatic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ezgeta-Balić, Daria; Peharda, Melita; Richardson, Christopher A.; Kuzmanić, Marina; Vrgoč, Nedo; Isajlović, Igor

    2011-12-01

    The age, growth, and population structure of the smooth clam Callista chione were determined from samples collected by hydraulic dredge and SCUBA at four locations in the eastern Adriatic during 2007 and 2008. The age of 436 clam shells was determined from internal growth lines present in shell sections, and the timing of growth line formation was ascertained from monthly collections of clams to occur between August and September when sea water temperatures were maximal. In addition, age of 30 older individuals was verified with acetate peels of polished and etched shell sections. Differences were apparent in the age structure and growth rates of clams collected from the four locations studied. Von Bertalanffy growth (VBG) curves obtained for clams from these locations were L t = 72.4 (1-e-0.25(t - 2.68)) (Rab Island), L t = 74.5 (1-e-0.15(t + 0.57)) (Pag Bay), L t = 79.3 (1-e-0.34(t - 0.97)) (Cetina estuary), and L t = 82.5 (1-e-0.11(t + 2.88)) (Kaštela Bay). The age of the clams ranged between 3 and 44 years; median clam ages were similar at three of the four locations (14, 12, and 12 years, respectively), but was significantly lower in the Cetina estuary (4 years). The VBG growth constants recorded from clams were within the range of values obtained for this species by previous authors. The observed local differences in population structure indicate different levels of exploitation and illustrate the need to establish long-term strategies for a sustainable exploitation of smooth clams in the Croatian Adriatic.

  2. Anatomy of a bottleneck: diagnosing factors limiting population growth in the Puerto Rican parrot

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beissenger, S.R.; Wunderle, J.M., Jr.; Meyers, J.M.; Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.

    2008-01-01

    The relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes that maintain population bottlenecks has received little consideration. We evaluate the role of these factors in maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata) in a prolonged bottleneck from 1973 through 2000 despite intensive conservation efforts. We first conduct a risk analysis, then examine evidence for the importance of specific processes maintaining the bottleneck using the multiple competing hypotheses approach, and finally integrate these results through a sensitivity analysis of a demographic model using life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to determine the relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes on population growth. Annual population growth has been slow and variable (1.0 6 5.2 parrots per year, or an average k?1.05 6 0.19) from 16 parrots (1973) to a high of 40-42 birds (1997-1998). A risk analysis based on population prediction intervals (PPI) indicates great risk and large uncertainty, with a range of 22?83 birds in the 90% PPI only five years into the future. Four primary factors (reduced hatching success due to inbreeding, failure of adults to nest, nest failure due to nongenetic causes, and reduced survival of adults and juveniles) were responsible for maintaining the bottleneck. Egghatchability rates were low (70.6% per egg and 76.8% per pair), and hatchability increased after mate changes, suggesting inbreeding effects. Only an average of 34% of the population nested annually, which was well below the percentage of adults that should have reached an age of first breeding (41-56%). This chronic failure to nest appears to have been caused primarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors, and not by nest-site scarcity or a skewed sex ratio. Nest failure rates from nongenetic causes (i.e., predation, parasitism, and wet cavities) were low (29%) due to active management (protecting nests and fostering captive young into wild nests), diminishing the importance of nest failure as a limiting factor. Annual survival has been periodically reduced by catastrophes (hurricanes), which have greatly constrained population growth, but survival rates were high under non-catastrophic conditions. Although the importance of factors maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot bottleneck varied throughout the 30-year period of study, we determined their long-term influence using LSA simulations to correlate variation in demographic rates with variation in population growth (k). The bottleneck appears to have been maintained primarily by periodic catastrophes (hurricanes) that reduced adult survival, and secondarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors that resulted in a failure of many adults to nest. The influence of inbreeding through reduced hatching success played a much less significant role, even when additional effects of inbreeding on the production and mortality of young were incorporated into the LSA. Management actions needed to speed recovery include (1) continued nest guarding to minimize the effects of nest failure due to nongenetic causes; (2) creating a second population at another location on the island --a process that was recently initiated--to reduce the chance that hurricane strikes will cause extinction; and (3) determining the causes of the low percentage of breeders in the population and ameliorating them, which would have a large impact on population growth.

  3. Grid cells analysis of urban growth using remote sensing and population census data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagan, H.; Yamagata, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Urban growth and sprawl have drastically altered the ecosystems and ecosystem services. Urban areas are an increasingly important component of the global environment, yet they remain one of the most challenging areas for conducting research. Remote sensing based information is one of the most important resources to support urban planning and administration in megacities. It is possible to provide the up-to-date information regarding the extent, growth, and physical characteristics of urban land. Remote sensing provides spatially consistent image information that covers broad areas with both high spatial resolution and high temporal frequency. Therefore, remote sensing is an important tool for providing information on urban land-cover characteristics and their changes over time at various spatial and temporal scales. Urban land-use and land-cover changes are linked to socio-economic activities. Urbanization includes both the physical growth of a city and the movement of people to urban areas. As a consequence, it is essential to combine remote sensing derived parameters with socio-economic parameter to analyze the spatial-temporal changes and interaction of both factors. The aim of the research was to use1-km2 grid cells to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban growth in the world mega cities. The research was conducted in the 50 global cities using Landsat ETM/TM remote sensing imagery from 1985 - 2011, and time series population census data (1-km2 resolution gridded population census data of Japan and 2.5 arc-minute resolutions Gridded Population of the World). First, maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method were used to produce land cover maps by using Landsat images. Then intersect the land cover maps with 1-km2 grid cell maps to represents the proportion of each land cover category within each 1-km2 grid cell. Finally, we combined the proportional land cover maps with gridded population census data on 1-km2 resolution grid cells to investigate the spatial relationships between the changes of land-cover classes and changes of population density. A case study in Tokyo, Japan and Beijing, China were provided. The results showed that the urban area decreased in the metropolitan inner core as the city center experienced depopulation in Tokyo. Spatial correlation analysis showed a strong positive correlation between urban expansion and population density change and that urban expansion was strongly negatively correlated with cropland change both in Tokyo and Beijing. Time series of land-cover maps of the Tokyo in 1987, 2001, and 2011. Urban B. refers to the urban/built-up class. The black lines indicate the major railway and metro lines. Five broad land-cover categories;

  4. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  5. The impacts of lower population growth on the quality of life and economic development: China's experience.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Z; Zhang, L

    1994-02-01

    China's population in 1993 was 1.18 billion, which makes it the most populous nation in the world. The Chinese population policy aims to control growth and improve the quality of human resources. Most Chinese recognize the need for family planning. Replacement level fertility has been achieved, because there are limited resources to support a large population. Scarce resources are limiting economic development. There has been a loss of arable land, and the dream of 2 hectares of land, a cow, a wife and children, and a comfortable bed are not attainable. Water resources are also limited, the ratio of water to arable land is unevenly balanced, and there is overdrawing of groundwater. Energy shortages, environmental pollution, and pressure on employment are other effects of population pressure. The surplus labor force is about 150-190 million farmering laborers. Labor productivity has declined due to excess labor. Projections are that 20-25% of employees are surplus, and unemployed in urban areas will total 10 million. Without a strong family planning program, there will be a rural labor surplus of 200-360 million people by the year 2000. One benefit of lower population growth is the savings in child-rearing expenses. Estimated births averted between 1971 and 1992 was about 250 million, which translates to a savings of $500 billion. About 66% of this sum would be recovered in the same period and 33% would be recovered between 1993-2007. Government and nongovernmental spending on family planning totaled an estimated $10 billion between 1971-92. The ratio of input to output for averted births is 1 to 17. Total spending would have been RMB 2500 billion yuan for child rearing of averted births between 1971-92 and RMB 1828 billion yuan between 1991-2005. The saved money could be invested in economic development. An estimated 10% of national income could be saved. Another benefit from low population growth is the increased consumption evident between 1971-90. There has not been any significant change in the employment pattern in China. Women have benefitted from smaller families and greater involvement in the work force. 689 poor counties were identified as needing assistance, which resulted in increased incomes. PMID:12318709

  6. Genetic analysis of leg problems and growth in a random mating broiler population.

    PubMed

    González-Cerón, F; Rekaya, R; Anthony, N B; Aggrey, S E

    2015-02-01

    Improvement in growth has been widely reported as the cause of increased incidence of leg problems in broiler chickens. We report herein the genetic relationship between growth and leg problems in a random mating broiler control population. The traits studied were valgus (VL), varus (VR), and tibial dyschondroplasia (TD), which were expressed on a binary scale of 0 (normal) and 1 (abnormal); growth rates from 0 to 4 wk (BWG 0-4) and from 0 to 6 wk of age (BWG 0-6); and residual feed intake from 5 to 6 wk of age (RFI 5-6). A threshold-linear mixed model was employed for the joint analysis of the categorical and linear traits. Incidences of VL, VR, and TD were 26, 4, and 2%, respectively. Heritability of leg problems ranged from 0.11 to 0.13. Phenotypic correlations alluded to an unfavorable relationship between growth and leg problems; however, the genetic relationship between growth and leg problems was extremely weak, ranging from 0.01 to 0.08. There is, therefore, a basis for genetic improvement in leg problems. However, improved management practices would also be important to reduce incidence of leg problems in broiler chickens. PMID:25589079

  7. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  8. Contributions of Covariance: Decomposing the components of stochastic population growth in Cypripedium calceolus

    PubMed Central

    Nicolè, Florence; Jacquemyn, Hans; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2013-01-01

    Although correlations between vital rates can have important effects on evolution and demography, few studies have investigated their effects on population dynamics. Here, we extend Life Table Response Experiments (LTREs) to variable environments, showing how to quantify contributions made by: (1) mean vital rates, (2) variability driven by environmental fluctuations, (3) correlations implying demographic tradeoffs and reflecting stage transition synchrony and (4) elasticities reflecting local selection pressures. Applying our methods to the Lady’s Slipper orchid Cypripedium calceolus, we found that mean rates accounted for 77.1% of all effects on the stochastic growth rate, variability accounted for 12.6%, elasticities 6.6% and correlations 3.7%. Stochastic effects accounted for 17.6%, 15.3% and 35.9% of the total in our three populations. Larger elasticities to transitions between dormancy states and stronger correlations between emergence and survival suggest that one population was under greater pressure to remain active while the other two showed survival payoffs for dormancy in poor years. Strong negative correlations between dormancy, emergence and stasis balanced opposing contributions, resulting in near-stationarity in two populations. These new methods provide an additional tool for researchers investigating stochastic population dynamics and should be useful for a broad range of applications in basic ecology and conservation biology. PMID:23448889

  9. Contributions of covariance: decomposing the components of stochastic population growth in Cypripedium calceolus.

    PubMed

    Davison, Raziel; Nicolè, Florence; Jacquemyn, Hans; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2013-03-01

    Although correlations between vital rates can have important effects on evolution and demography, few studies have investigated their effects on population dynamics. Here, we extend life-table response experiments (LTREs) to variable environments, showing how to quantify contributions made by (1) mean vital rates, (2) variability driven by environmental fluctuations, (3) correlations implying demographic trade-offs and reflecting stage transition synchrony, and (4) elasticities reflecting local selection pressures. Applying our methods to the lady's slipper orchid Cypripedium calceolus, we found that mean rates accounted for 77.1% of all effects on the stochastic growth rate, variability accounted for 12.6%, elasticities accounted for 6.6%, and correlations accounted for 3.7%. Stochastic effects accounted for 17.6%, 15.3%, and 35.9% of the total in our three populations. Larger elasticities to transitions between dormancy states and stronger correlations between emergence and survival suggest that one population was under greater pressure to remain active while the other two showed survival payoffs for dormancy in poor years. Strong negative correlations between dormancy, emergence, and stasis balanced opposing contributions, resulting in near stationarity in two populations. These new methods provide an additional tool for researchers investigating stochastic population dynamics and should be useful for a broad range of applications in basic ecology and conservation biology. PMID:23448889

  10. Biomass, growth, and development of populations of herbivorous zooplankton in the southeastern Bering Sea during spring

    SciTech Connect

    Vidal, J.; Smith, S.L.

    1985-09-01

    Two distinct communities of herbivorous zooplankton, separated by an oceanographic front, inhabit the continental shelf and slope of the southeastern Bering Sea during spring. The community over the outer shelf and slope is dominated by populations of large-sized oceanic copepods (mainly Neocalanus ssp.) that develop early in spring and attain maximum biomass and growth rates by mid- to late spring. Total biomass and growth rates of herbivores follow the spring outburst of phytoplankton; during April and May biomass increases from less than or equal to1 to approx.14 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope and to approx.10 g C m/sup -2/ on the outer shelf, and maximum growth rates >500 and approx.300 mg C m/sup -2/ day/sup -1/ occure on the slope and outer shelf, respectively in May. The dominant species, N. plumchrus, grows from copepodid I and V between late March and early May, and after attaining maximum body weight in late May and early June it begins its downward migration. The inshore community on the middle shelf is dominated by the euphausiid Thysanoessa raschi in April and May and by the copepod Calanus marshallae in late May and early June. Total biomass (less than or equal to g C m/sup -2/) and growth rates (less than or equal to50 mg C m/sup -2/) of the inshore community are substantially lower than those of the offshore community and show a delayed response to the spring bloom of phytoplankton; both biomass and growth rates increase about one month after the bloom. Small herbivorous copepods contributed little to the total biomass and growth rates of either community and the cumulative community growth rates during April and May decreases from 18.3 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope to 2.5 g C m/sup -2/ on the middle shelf. 79 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  11. National Health Expenditure Growth in the 1980's: An Aging Population, New Technologies, and Increasing Competition

    PubMed Central

    Freeland, Mark S.; Schendler, Carol Ellen

    1983-01-01

    Health care spending in the United States more than tripled between 1971 and 1981, increasing from $83 billion to $287 billion. This growth in health sector spending substantially outpaced overall growth in the economy, averaging 13.2 percent per year compared to 10.5 percent for the gross national product (GNP). By 1981, one out of every ten dollars of GNP was spent on health care, compared to one out of every thirteen dollars of GNP in 1971. If current trends continue and if present health care financing arrangements remain basically unchanged, national health expenditures are projected to reach approximately $756 billion in 1990 and consume roughly 12 percent of GNP. The focal issue in health care today is cost and cost Increases. The outlook for the 1980's is for continued rapid growth but at a diminished rate. The primary force behind this moderating growth is projected lower inflation. However, real growth rates are also expected to moderate slightly. The chief factors influencing the growth of health expenditures in the eighties are expected to be aging of the population, new medical technologies, increasing competition, restrained public funding, growth in real income, increased health manpower, and a deceleration in economy-wide inflation. Managers, policy makers and providers in the health sector, as in all sectors, must include in today's decisions probable future trends. Inflation, economic shocks, and unanticipated outcomes of policies over the last decade have intensified the need for periodic assessments of individual industries and their relationship to the macro economy. This article provides such an assessment for the health care industry. Baseline current-law projections of national health expenditures are made to 1990. PMID:10309852

  12. Crowded growth leads to the spontaneous evolution of semistable coexistence in laboratory yeast populations

    PubMed Central

    Frenkel, Evgeni M.; McDonald, Michael J.; Van Dyken, J. David; Kosheleva, Katya; Lang, Gregory I.; Desai, Michael M.

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the mechanisms that create and maintain biodiversity is a central challenge in biology. Stable diversification of microbial populations often requires the evolution of differences in resource utilization. Alternatively, coexistence can be maintained by specialization to exploit spatial heterogeneity in the environment. Here, we report spontaneous diversification maintained by a related but distinct mechanism: crowding avoidance. During experimental evolution of laboratory Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations, we observed the repeated appearance of “adherent” (A) lineages able to grow as a dispersed film, in contrast to their crowded “bottom-dweller” (B) ancestors. These two types stably coexist because dispersal reduces interference competition for nutrients among kin, at the cost of a slower maximum growth rate. This tradeoff causes the frequencies of the two types to oscillate around equilibrium over the course of repeated cycles of growth, crowding, and dispersal. However, further coevolution of the A and B types can perturb and eventually destroy their coexistence over longer time scales. We introduce a simple mathematical model of this “semistable” coexistence, which explains the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Because crowded growth generally limits nutrient access in biofilms, the mechanism we report here may be broadly important in maintaining diversity in these natural environments. PMID:26240355

  13. Crowded growth leads to the spontaneous evolution of semistable coexistence in laboratory yeast populations.

    PubMed

    Frenkel, Evgeni M; McDonald, Michael J; Van Dyken, J David; Kosheleva, Katya; Lang, Gregory I; Desai, Michael M

    2015-09-01

    Identifying the mechanisms that create and maintain biodiversity is a central challenge in biology. Stable diversification of microbial populations often requires the evolution of differences in resource utilization. Alternatively, coexistence can be maintained by specialization to exploit spatial heterogeneity in the environment. Here, we report spontaneous diversification maintained by a related but distinct mechanism: crowding avoidance. During experimental evolution of laboratory Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations, we observed the repeated appearance of "adherent" (A) lineages able to grow as a dispersed film, in contrast to their crowded "bottom-dweller" (B) ancestors. These two types stably coexist because dispersal reduces interference competition for nutrients among kin, at the cost of a slower maximum growth rate. This tradeoff causes the frequencies of the two types to oscillate around equilibrium over the course of repeated cycles of growth, crowding, and dispersal. However, further coevolution of the A and B types can perturb and eventually destroy their coexistence over longer time scales. We introduce a simple mathematical model of this "semistable" coexistence, which explains the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Because crowded growth generally limits nutrient access in biofilms, the mechanism we report here may be broadly important in maintaining diversity in these natural environments. PMID:26240355

  14. Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Defries, Ruth S.; Rudel, Thomas; Uriarte, Maria; Hansen, Matthew

    2010-03-01

    Reducing atmospheric carbon emissions from tropical deforestation is at present considered a cost-effective option for mitigating climate change. However, the forces associated with tropical forest loss are uncertain. Here we use satellite-based estimates of forest loss for 2000 to 2005 (ref. 2) to assess economic, agricultural and demographic correlates across 41 countries in the humid tropics. Two methods of analysis-linear regression and regression tree-show that forest loss is positively correlated with urban population growth and exports of agricultural products for this time period. Rural population growth is not associated with forest loss, indicating the importance of urban-based and international demands for agricultural products as drivers of deforestation. The strong trend in movement of people to cities in the tropics is, counter-intuitively, likely to be associated with greater pressures for clearing tropical forests. We therefore suggest that policies to reduce deforestation among local, rural populations will not address the main cause of deforestation in the future. Rather, efforts need to focus on reducing deforestation for industrial-scale, export-oriented agricultural production, concomitant with efforts to increase yields in non-forested lands to satisfy demands for agricultural products.

  15. Theory, computation, and application of exponential splines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccartin, B. J.

    1981-01-01

    A generalization of the semiclassical cubic spline known in the literature as the exponential spline is discussed. In actuality, the exponential spline represents a continuum of interpolants ranging from the cubic spline to the linear spline. A particular member of this family is uniquely specified by the choice of certain tension parameters. The theoretical underpinnings of the exponential spline are outlined. This development roughly parallels the existing theory for cubic splines. The primary extension lies in the ability of the exponential spline to preserve convexity and monotonicity present in the data. Next, the numerical computation of the exponential spline is discussed. A variety of numerical devices are employed to produce a stable and robust algorithm. An algorithm for the selection of tension parameters that will produce a shape preserving approximant is developed. A sequence of selected curve-fitting examples are presented which clearly demonstrate the advantages of exponential splines over cubic splines.

  16. Generalised Exponential Families and Associated Entropy Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naudts, Jan

    2008-09-01

    A generalised notion of exponential families is introduced. It is based on the variational principle, borrowed from statistical physics. It is shown that inequivalent generalised entropy functions lead to distinct generalised exponential families. The well-known result that the inequality of Craḿer and Rao becomes an equality in the case of an exponential family can be generalised. However, this requires the introduction of escort probabilities.

  17. Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Heather E; Mills, L Scott; Wehausen, John D; Stephenson, Thomas R; Luikart, Gordon

    2011-12-01

    Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations. PMID:22070275

  18. Genetic analysis of bone quality traits and growth in a random mating broiler population.

    PubMed

    González-Cerón, F; Rekaya, R; Aggrey, S E

    2015-05-01

    We report the genetic relationship between growth and bone quality traits in a random mating broiler control population. Traits studied were growth rates from week 0 to 4 [body weight gain (BWG) 0 to 4], from week 0 to 6 (BWG 0 to 6), and residual feed intake (RFI) from week 5 to 6 (RFI 5 to 6). Bone quality traits were obtained at 6 weeks of age. These traits were shank weight (SW), shank length (SL), shank diameter (SDIAM), tibia weight (TW), tibia length (TL), and tibia diameter (TDIAM). Likewise, tibia was used to obtain the tibia density (TDEN), tibia breaking strength (TBS), tibia mineral density (TMD), tibia mineral content (TMC), and tibia ash content (TAC). At the phenotypic level, growth traits were positively correlated with most of the bone quality traits except with TDEN and TAC which tended to show unfavorable associations (-0.04 to -0.31). Heritability of bone quality traits ranged from 0.08 to 0.54. The additive genetic associations of growth traits with weight, length, and diameter of shank and tibia were positive (0.37 to 0.80). A similar pattern was observed with TMD and TMC (0.06 to 0.65). In contrast, growth traits showed unfavorable genetic associations with TDEN, TBS, and TAC (-0.03 to -0.18). It was concluded that bone quality traits have an additive genetic background and they can be improved by means of genetic tools. It appears that selection for growth is negatively correlated with some traits involved in the integrity, health, and maturity of leg bones. PMID:25784765

  19. Population Education in the United States: A Report to the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Viederman, Stephen

    Population education is a planned, integrated, and sequential approach to population learning. It is defined as the process by which the student investigates the nature and meaning of population processes and characteristics, the causes of population changes, and the consequences of these for himself, his family, his society, and the world. Its…

  20. Long-term growth of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, Philip A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1--4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23--25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39--47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  1. Climate change and population growth in Timor Leste: implications for food security.

    PubMed

    Molyneux, Nicholas; da Cruz, Gil Rangel; Williams, Robert L; Andersen, Rebecca; Turner, Neil C

    2012-12-01

    The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5-3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition. PMID:22569843

  2. New inferences from tree shape: numbers of missing taxa and population growth rates.

    PubMed

    Pybus, O G; Rambaut, A; Holmes, E C; Harvey, P H

    2002-12-01

    The relative positions of branching events in a phylogeny contain information about evolutionary and population dynamic processes. We provide new summary statistics of branching event times and describe how these statistics can be used to infer rates of species diversification from interspecies trees or rates of population growth from intraspecies trees. We also introduce a phylogenetic method for estimating the level of taxon sampling in a clade. Different evolutionary models and different sampling regimes can produce similar patterns of branching events, so it is important to consider explicitly the model assumptions involved when making evolutionary inferences. Results of an analysis of the phylogeny of the mosquito-borne flaviviruses suggest that there could be several thousand currently unidentified viruses in this clade. PMID:12554454

  3. Patterns of dynamic urban population growth in Russia, 1989-1996: a research report.

    PubMed

    Rowland, R H

    1997-01-01

    "The purpose of this paper is to investigate locations in which rapid urban growth occurred in Russia over the period 1989 to 1996....Particular emphasis will be given to the geographical patterns, economic functions, and population size of rapidly growing towns. In addition, the discussion of trends for 1989-1996 also will be briefly preceded by and compared to those of 1979-1989, although the paper will emphasize trends during the 1990s. Furthermore, the topic of ¿new towns', which themselves often are rapidly growing centers, will be addressed as well." PMID:12292848

  4. Effect of vitamin B12-enriched thraustochytrids on the population growth of rotifers.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Masahiro; Yukino, Tsugiyo; Watanabe, Fumio; Miyamoto, Emi; Nakano, Yoshihisa

    2007-01-01

    Newly isolated thraustochytrids showed uptake of vitamin B12 from the culture into the cells. Cultivation of thraustochytrids in a medium containing 1 microg/ml of vitamin B12 greatly increased the contents of vitamin B12 in the cells. Similarly to Schizochytrium limacinum, odd numbered fatty acids decreased in the cells of new isolates cultivated with vitamin B12. Vitamin B12-enriched thraustochytrids, strain mh0186, enhanced the population growth of rotifers fed on the cells as sole feed. PMID:17213643

  5. [A model of world population growth as an experiment in systematic research].

    PubMed

    Kapitsa, S

    1997-01-01

    A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population. PMID:12293734

  6. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  7. Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas.

    PubMed

    Whitfield, Colin J; Baulch, Helen M; Chun, Kwok P; Westbrook, Cherie J

    2015-02-01

    Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions. PMID:25515021

  8. Epidemics, Exponential Functions, and Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bush, Sarah B.; Gibbons, Katie; Karp, Karen S.; Dillon, Fred

    2015-01-01

    The phenomenon of outbreaks of dangerous diseases is both intriguing to students and of mathematical significance, which is exactly why the authors engaged eighth graders in an introductory activity on the growth that occurs as an epidemic spreads. Various contexts can set the stage for such an exploration. Reading adolescent literature like

  9. Epidemics, Exponential Functions, and Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bush, Sarah B.; Gibbons, Katie; Karp, Karen S.; Dillon, Fred

    2015-01-01

    The phenomenon of outbreaks of dangerous diseases is both intriguing to students and of mathematical significance, which is exactly why the authors engaged eighth graders in an introductory activity on the growth that occurs as an epidemic spreads. Various contexts can set the stage for such an exploration. Reading adolescent literature like…

  10. Bushmeat poaching reduces the seed dispersal and population growth rate of a mammal-dispersed tree.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Jedediah F; Helmy, Olga E; Brockelman, Warren Y; Maron, John L

    2009-06-01

    Myriad tropical vertebrates are threatened by overharvest. Whether this harvest has indirect effects on nonhunted organisms that interact with the game species is a critical question. Many tropical birds and mammals disperse seeds. Their overhunting in forests can cause zoochorous trees to suffer from reduced seed dispersal. Yet how these reductions in seed dispersal influence tree abundance and population dynamics remains unclear. Reproductive parameters in long-lived organisms often have very low elasticities; indeed the demographic importance of seed dispersal is an open question. We asked how variation in hunting pressure across four national parks with seasonal forest in northern Thailand influenced the relative abundance of gibbons, muntjac deer, and sambar deer, the sole dispersers of seeds of the canopy tree Choerospondias axillaris. We quantified how variation in disperser numbers affected C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance across the four parks. We then used these data in a structured population model based on vital rates measured in Khao Yai National Park (where poaching pressure is minimal) to explore how variation in illegal hunting pressure might influence C. axillaris population growth and persistence. Densities of the mammals varied strongly across the parks, from relatively high in Khao Yai to essentially zero in Doi Suthep-Pui. Levels of C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance positively tracked mammal density. If hunting in Khao Yai were to increase to the levels seen in the other parks, C. axillaris population growth rate would decline, but only slightly. Extinction of C. axillaris is a real possibility, but may take many decades. Recent and ongoing extirpations of vertebrates in many tropical forests could be creating an extinction debt for zoochorous trees whose vulnerability is belied by their current abundance. PMID:19544729

  11. Contributions of vital rates to growth of a protected population of American black bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mitchell, M.S.; Pacifici, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Powell, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of large, long-lived animals suggest that adult survival generally has the potential to contribute more than reproduction to population growth rate (??), but because survival varies little, high variability in reproduction can have a greater influence. This pattern has been documented for several species of large mammals, but few studies have evaluated such contributions of vital rates to ?? for American black bears (Ursus americanus). We used variance-based perturbation analyses (life table response experiments, LTRE) and analytical sensitivity and elasticity analyses to examine the actual and potential contributions of variation of vital rates to variation in growth rate (??) of a population of black bears inhabiting the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, using a 22-year dataset. We found that recruitment varied more than other vital rates; LTRE analyses conducted over several time intervals thus indicated that recruitment generally contributed at least as much as juvenile and adult survival to observed variation in ??, even though the latter 2 vital rates had the greater potential to affect ??. Our findings are consistent with predictions from studies on polar bears (U. maritimus) and grizzly bears (U. arctos), but contrast with the few existing studies on black bears in ways that suggest levels of protection from human-caused mortality might explain whether adult survival or recruitment contribute most to variation in ?? for this species. We hypothesize that ?? is most strongly influenced by recruitment in protected populations where adult survival is relatively high and constant, whereas adult survival will most influence ?? for unprotected populations. ?? 2009 International Association for Bear Research and Management.

  12. Population growth and development in the Third World: the neocolonial context.

    PubMed

    Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R

    1988-01-01

    Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geography and alter the prevailing social, economic, and political power structures in favor of the poor. 6 propositions that must be modified to each nation's particular problems and needs are presented to guide LDCs in formulating or reformulating policies to alleviate the problems of population and poverty. PMID:12342352

  13. Bait stations, hard mast, and black bear population growth in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, Joseph D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Pelton, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    Bait-station surveys are used by wildlife managers as an index to American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance, but the relationship is not well established. Hard mast surveys are similarly used to assess annual black bear food availability which may affect mortality and natality rates. We used data collected in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) from 1989 to 2003 to determine whether changes in the bait-station index (ΔBSI) were associated with estimated rates of bear population growth (λ) and whether hard mast production was related to bear visitation to baits. We also evaluated whether hard mast production from previous years was related to λ. Estimates of λ were based on analysis of capture-recapture data with the Pradel temporal symmetry estimator. Using the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), our analysis revealed no direct relationship between ΔBSI and λ. A simulation analysis indicated that our data were adequate to detect a relationship had one existed. Model fit was marginally improved when we added total oak mast production of the previous year as an interaction term suggesting that the BSI was confounded with environmental variables. Consequently the utility of the bait-station survey as a population monitoring technique is questionable at the spatial and temporal scales we studied. Mast survey data, however, were valuable covariates of λ. Population growth for a given year was negatively related to oak mast production 4 and 5 years prior. That finding supported our hypothesis that mast failures can trigger reproductive synchrony, which may not be evident from the trapped sample until years later.

  14. Effects of forest management on density, survival, and population growth of wood thrushes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Lang, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Loss and alteration of breeding habitat have been proposed as causes of declines in several Neotropical migrant bird populations. We conducted a 4-year study to determine the effects of winter prescribed burning and forest thinning on breeding wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) populations at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge (PNWR) in Georgia. We estimated density, adult and juvenile survival rates, and apparent annual survival using transect surveys, radiotelemetry, and mist netting. Burning and thinning did not cause lower densities (P = 0.25); wood thrush density ranged from 0.15 to 1.30 pairs/10 ha. No radiomarked male wood thrushes (n = 68) died during the 4 years, but female (n = 63) weekly survival was 0.981 ? 0.014 (SE) for females (n = 63) and 0.976 ? 0.010 for juveniles (n = 38). Apparent annual adult survival was 0.579 (SE = 0.173). Thinning and prescribed burning did not reduce adult or juvenile survival during the breeding season or apparent annual adult survival. Annual population growth (lambda) at PNWR was 1.00 (95% confidence interval = 0.32--1.63), and the considerable uncertainty in this prediction underscores the need for long term monitoring to effectively manage Neotropical migrants. Population growth increased on experimental compartments after the burn and thin (95% CI before = 0.91--0.97, after = 0.98--1.05), while control compartment declined (before = 0.98--1.05, after = 0.87--0.92). We found no evidence that the current management regime at PNWR, designed to improve red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) habitat, negatively affected wood thrushes.

  15. Jensen's Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Evan J; Thomson, David L; Li, Teng A; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  16. Jensen’s Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Pickett, Evan J.; Thomson, David L.; Li, Teng A.; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  17. Mark-recapture estimates of recruitment, survivorship and population growth rate for the screwworm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax.

    PubMed

    Matlock, R B; Skoda, S R

    2009-06-01

    Pradel model mark-release-recapture estimates of survivorship, phi, recruitment, f, and the rate of density-independent population growth, lambda, are presented for eight mark-recapture studies of the screwworm Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) from Costa Rica, totalling 19 573 released and 4476 recaptured flies. Corroborative estimates of survivorship and the rate of population growth based on an extensive review of the literature are also reported. Weighted-mean +/- standard error of the mean (SEM) mark-release-recapture estimates of survivorship, recruitment and the rate of population growth were phi = 0.798 +/- 0.008, f = 0.193 +/- 0.008 and lambda = 1.005 +/- 0.002, respectively. Population doubling time was estimated from lambda at 139 days. Estimates of phi and lambda from the literature both exceeded those calculated by mark-recapture methods and estimates of population doubling times were consequently shorter. PMID:19335838

  18. Some socio-economic aspects of population growth in the USSR.

    PubMed

    Simchera, V

    1974-01-01

    This summarizes population trends in the U.S.S.R. since the early 19 00's. On August 9, 1973, the population topped 250 million, almost precisely double that of Russia at the time of the 1st general census in 1897. Since 1922 it had increased by more than 84%. Russia has suffered more population loss in wars than any other country in modern times. The First World War, the Civil War, and the Second World War took a toll of more than 30 million, more than 20 million during the Second World War alone. The extent of these loses can be judged from the following: between 1897 and 1913 the population of Russia increased at the rate of 1.55% per annum or 34.6 million; if this had continued the population would have been at least 182.8 million by the end of 1922. As it was, the population was 136.1 million by 1922 and the hypothetical 182.8 million was not reached until 1952. More than 4/5 of today's population have been born since the October Revolution. Only 43 million were born before the revolution and only 7.5 were born in the last century. The economic base has grown much more rapidly than the population. For the period 1940-1972 the population increased 1.27 times, national income 9.51 times, fixed assets, 8.76 times, industrial production, 13.65 times, agricultural output, 2.14 times, and capital investment 14.52 times. The birthrate has been falling since World War 1 but total population growth has increased steadily. Birthrates have declined from 45.5/1000 in 1913 to 17.8/1000 in 1972 and a slight upturn is seen. It is expected that the birthrate will continue to increase slightly, then stabilize. Much of the population increase has come from significantly reduced mortality rates. 1st and 2nd children now account for 71% of all births. Family allowances, child care, free health care, and other social benefits encourage births while high employment levels for women, a shortage of men in the marriageable age ranges, and late marriages tend to depress the birthrate. The shortage of men is directly the result of the losses during World War 2. Employment opportunities have changed dramatically. The country has gone from a primarily agricultural nation to one in which 80% of the people are working class wage or salary earners. The current problem is closing the urban-rural gap and equalizing population density. 3/5 of the people are town-dwellers. To fight declining population in the villages and in the areas of Siberia and the Far East, new towns and new industrial and cultural centers are being established such as Bratsk, Ust-Ilim, Norilsk, and others. PMID:12307196

  19. Population growth of Varroa destructor (Acari: Varroidae) in honey bee colonies is affected by the number of foragers with mites.

    PubMed

    DeGrandi-Hoffman, Gloria; Ahumada, Fabiana; Zazueta, Victor; Chambers, Mona; Hidalgo, Geoffrey; deJong, Emily Watkins

    2016-05-01

    Varroa mites are a serious pest of honey bees and the leading cause of colony losses. Varroa have relatively low reproductive rates, so populations should not increase rapidly, but often they do. Other factors might contribute to the growth of varroa populations including mite migration into colonies on foragers from other hives. We measured the proportion of foragers carrying mites on their bodies while entering and leaving hives, and determined its relationship to the growth of varroa populations in those hives at two apiary sites. We also compared the estimates of mite population growth with predictions from a varroa population dynamics model that generates estimates of mite population growth based on mite reproduction. Samples of capped brood and adult bees indicated that the proportion of brood cells infested with mites and adult bees with phoretic mites was low through the summer but increased sharply in the fall especially at site 1. The frequency of capturing foragers with mites on their bodies while entering or leaving hives also increased in the fall. The growth of varroa populations at both sites was not significantly related to our colony estimates of successful mite reproduction, but instead to the total number of foragers with mites (entering and leaving the colony). There were more foragers with mites at site 1 than site 2, and mite populations at site 1 were larger especially in the fall. The model accurately estimated phoretic mite populations and infested brood cells until November when predictions were much lower than those measured in colonies. The rapid growth of mite populations particularly in the fall being a product of mite migration rather than mite reproduction only is discussed. PMID:26910522

  20. Effect of Population Growths on Water Resources in Dubai Emirate, United Arab Emirates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Nuaimi, Hind S.; Murad, Ahmed A.

    The Emirate of Dubai is situated to the north of the United Arab Emirates on the Arabian Gulf. Due to its political stability and strong economy, people are continuing to immigrate to Dubai and this will enhance the stress on water resources. Therefore, demands for water will increase significantly in Dubai. The scarcity of water resources in Dubai is evident. The total production of water in the Dubai has increased to 61,478 million gallons in 2004. About 58,808 million gallons has been produced from the desalination plants in 2004. The production of freshwater from the main aquifers is about 2763 and 2655 million gallons for the years 2003 and 2004, respectively. The reduction of groundwater in 2004 may be ascribed to the low amount of rainfall and to the decreasing capacity of the aquifers. Treated wastewater is another source for water whose quantity was increased from 72 m3 to about 107 m3 in 2000 and 2004, respectively. The increase in water production in Dubai to meet the demand corresponds to population growth and this might be attributed to the political stability and strong economy. Moreover, major problems related to the water resources have appeared and affected the availability of freshwater in Dubai. These problems include: lowering water level and groundwater deterioration. This paper is aimed to assess the impacts of population growth on water resources in Dubai.

  1. Water scarcity in the tropical Andes: population growth outweighs climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, W.; De Bièvre, B.

    2012-12-01

    Globally, water resources for cities are under increasing stress. Two main stressors are climate change and population growth, but evaluating their relative impact is difficult, especially because of the complex topology of water supply. This is especially true in the tropical Andes, which is a region with strong climatic gradients and topographical limits to water resources. In this study we present an evaluation of both stressors on water resources in a geospatial framework to identify gradients in water availability that may lead to conflicts over water use. We focus on 4 major cities in, or receiving water from the tropical Andes. A multi-model dataset of 19 climate models is used as input for a regional water balance model. Per capita water availability is evaluated along topographic gradients for the present, and for future scenarios of population growth and climate change. In all cases, the median projection of climate change suggests a relatively limited impact on water availability but uncertainties are large. Despite these uncertainties, we find that the expected demographic changes are very likely to outpace the impact of climate change on water availability and should therefore be the priority for local policy making. However, distinctive geospatial patterns characterize the supply systems of the studied cities, highlighting the need to analyse the topology of water supply within an ecosystem services context. Our approach is flexible enough to be extended to other regions, stressors and water resources topologies.

  2. America's Water Supply Challenge: Adaptation to Future Population Growth and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahat, V.; Brown, T. C.; Ramirez, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Water shortages, and the prospect of such shortages, have been repeatedly faced and addressed as population and economic growth placed increasing demands on available water over the past century. Such challenges have been most common in arid areas, but also have been encountered in some more humid portions of the US during times of drought. The challenges have been met using a wide range of adaptation measures, from large infrastructure projects (e.g., major trans-basin diversions) to alterations in local water prices (e.g., increasing block pricing). The future may bring even greater adaptation challenges as, in addition to continued growth in population, climate change will reduce water supplies in many locations. In this study we report on the relative importance of changes in demand versus changes in supply in causing projected future shortages in basins throughout the contiguous U.S. under different sets of socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We then examine the degree to which projected shortages can be avoided through adaptation. The adaptations examined include reductions in demand of major water use sectors, alterations in water management infrastructure, and inter-basin water transfers.

  3. Influence of packaging conditions on natural microbial population growth of endive.

    PubMed

    Charles, Florence; Rugani, Nathalie; Gontard, Nathalie

    2005-05-01

    The influence of three packaging conditions, i.e., unmodified atmosphere packaging (UAP), passive modified atmosphere packaging (MAP), and active MAP, on the natural microbial population growth of endive was investigated at 20 degrees C. For UAP, endive was placed in macroperforated oriented polypropylene pouches that maintained gas composition close to that of air (21 kPa O2 and 0 kPa CO2) but also limited superficial product dehydration. For MAP, endive was placed in low-density polyethylene pouches that induced a 3 kPa O2 and 5 kPa CO2 equilibrium atmosphere composition. Steady state was reached after 25 h of storage with an oxygen absorbing packet (active MAP) compared with 100 h without the packet (passive MAP) and was maintained for 200 h. After 312 h of storage, both active and passive MAP reduced total aerobic mesophile, yeast, and mold population growth compared with endive in UAP. Active MAP accelerated and improved the inhibition of Pseudomonas spp. and Enterobacteriaceae, respectively, probably because of the rapid O2 depletion during the transition period. A shift in the Enterobacteriaceae subpopulation from Rhanella aquatilis to Enterobacter agglomerans was observed for both passive and active MAP. PMID:15895736

  4. Stretched Exponential relaxation in pure Se glass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, S.; Ravindren, S.; Boolchand, P.

    A universal feature of glasses is the stretched exponential relaxation, f (t) = exp[ - t / τ ] β . The model of diffusion of excitations to randomly distributed traps in a glass by Phillips1 yields the stretched exponent β = d[d +2] where d, the effective dimensionality. We have measured the enthalpy of relaxation ΔHnr (tw) at Tg of Se glass in modulated DSC experiments as glasses age at 300K and find β = 0.43(2) for tw in the 0 growth of interchain structural correlations mediated by both long range (van der Waals forces) and short-range (covalent) interactions. A striking consequence of this relaxation is a narrowing of the glass transition width from 7.1°C to 1.4°C, and the ΔHnr term increasing from 0.21 cal/gm to 0.92 cal/gm. In bulk GexSe100-x glasses as x increases to 20%, the length of the polymeric Sen chains between the Ge-crosslinks decreases to n = 2. and the striking relaxation effects nearly vanish. J.C. Phillips, Rep.Prog.Phys. 59 , 1133 (1996). Supported by NSF Grant DMR 08-53957.

  5. An Exponential Decay Model for Mediation

    PubMed Central

    Fritz, Matthew S.

    2013-01-01

    Mediation analysis is often used to investigate mechanisms of change in prevention research. Results finding mediation are strengthened when longitudinal data are used because of the need for temporal precedence. Current longitudinal mediation models have focused mainly on linear change, but many variables in prevention change nonlinearly across time. The most common solution to nonlinearity is to add a quadratic term to the linear model, but this can lead to the use of the quadratic function to explain all nonlinearity, regardless of theory and the characteristics of the variables in the model. The current study describes the problems that arise when quadratic functions are used to describe all nonlinearity and how the use of nonlinear functions, such as exponential decay, addresses many of these problems. In addition, nonlinear models provide several advantages over polynomial models including usefulness of parameters, parsimony, and generalizability. The effects of using nonlinear functions for mediation analysis are then discussed and a nonlinear growth curve model for mediation is presented. An empirical example using data from a randomized intervention study is then provided to illustrate the estimation and interpretation of the model. Implications, limitations, and future directions are also discussed. PMID:23625557

  6. Employment problems under declining population growth rates and structural change: the case of Yugoslavia.

    PubMed

    Macura, M

    1974-01-01

    The case of Yugoslavia since World War 2 generally confirms the find ings of Coale and Hoover some 15 years ago that a declining population gives a developing society a chance to grow at a more rapid rate because less of the gross national product is devoted to merely maintaining the status quo. However, until recently insufficient attention was paid to the long-term effects of rapid population growth plus underdevelopment, namely, surplus labor and unemployment. Yugoslavia is currently suffereing the aftereffects of a history of labor surplus caused by high birthrates, especially in the southern Moslem regions. The birthrate was as high as 35/1000 until 1927, took a downward turn during the depression, falling to 26/1000 in 1939, became even more depressed during World War 2, then reached 26-30/1000 in the postwar years. After 1957 a steady decline set in. The rate was around 18/1000 in the early 1970s. Because of the underdeveloped, highly agrarian economy, Yugoslavia has traditionally been a source of abundant labor and emigration. Statistical data has been either nonexistent or unreliable, but there have been self-evident differences in the size of individual cohorts which have had definite bearing on the working-age population. Following World War 2 the country changed from a predominantly peasant, subsistence economy to an industrial socialist society. There has been a steady decline in the participation rate in the work force, from an estimated 46.5% in 1948 to 43.3% in 1971, primarily due to increased education, declining child labor, and greater retirement among older workers. However, the growth of the working-age group was faster than that of the total population because of the high postwar birthrates. Th ere was significant increase in employment from 1,517,000 in 1948 to 4,034,000 in 1971. At the same time the agricultural labor force decrea sed from 70% of total employment to 48%. Despite the industrial growth, in 1971 there were over 290,000 unemployed persons, some 600,000 underemployed in agriculture, and another 700,000 temporarily employed abroad. Together these figures represent almost 1/3 of total employment in the socialist sector. The Yugoslav experience demonstrates the magnitude of employment problems in a developing society and the time needed to solve them. PMID:12307193

  7. The matrix exponential in transient structural analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minnetyan, Levon

    1987-01-01

    The primary usefulness of the presented theory is in the ability to represent the effects of high frequency linear response with accuracy, without requiring very small time steps in the analysis of dynamic response. The matrix exponential contains a series approximation to the dynamic model. However, unlike the usual analysis procedure which truncates the high frequency response, the approximation in the exponential matrix solution is in the time domain. By truncating the series solution to the matrix exponential short, the solution is made inaccurate after a certain time. Yet, up to that time the solution is extremely accurate, including all high frequency effects. By taking finite time increments, the exponential matrix solution can compute the response very accurately. Use of the exponential matrix in structural dynamics is demonstrated by simulating the free vibration response of multi degree of freedom models of cantilever beams.

  8. VARIABLE POPULATION GROWTH OF VARROA DESTRUCTOR (MESOSTIGMATA: VARROIDAE) IN COLONIES OF HONEY BEES (HYMENOPTERA: APIDAE) DURING A 10-YEAR PERIOD

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The intrinsic growth rates for varroa mites (Varroa destructor) significantly varied among years during 1993--2002 in Baton Rouge, LA. Mite population growth was monitored in colonies of honey bees with queens obtained from different sources in the U.S. Queens were from sources that had not select...

  9. Population growth of Varroa destructor (Acari: Varroidae) in honey bee colonies is affected by the number of foragers with mites

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Varroa mites are a serious pest of honey bees and the leading cause of colony losses. Varroa have relatively low reproductive rates, so populations should not increase rapidly, but often they do. Other factors might contribute to the growth of Varroa populations including mite migration into colonie...

  10. Population trends, growth, and movement of bigmouth buffalo, Ictiobus cyprinellus, in Lake Oahe, 1963-70

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moen, Thomas E.

    1974-01-01

    The bigmouth buffalo, Ictiobus cyprinellus, is the most important commercial species in Lake Oahe, a reservoir in the upper Missouri River. The population was dominated by three strong year classes (1959, 1960, and 1962). Estimated population in the fall of 1964 was 540,000 fish of the combined 1959-60 year classes and 5 million of the 1962 year class (equivalent to 81 kg per hectare). Abundance declined irregularly during 1964-70. Annual landings of these two dominant groups during 1965-70 ranged from 149 to 271 metric tons. The total landings during the period amounted to about 151,800 fish of the 1959-60 year classes and 313,000 fish of the 1962 year class. Growth rate was high during the first few years of impoundment and then declined. Males and females grew at about the same rate for the first 4 yr of life, but females were longer and heavier than males at ages V-VIII. At these ages, fish of the 1962 year class were about 10% shorter and 36% lighter than those of the 1959 year class. Growth of tagged and untagged fish was similar. The number of females per male increased with age. Age at maturity increased slightly as growth rate declined. Movement of marked fish was extensive and the recapture of marked fish was directly related to size of fish, location of release, and subsequent fishing pressure; 44% were recaptured downstream from the point of release, and 38% upstream. Females showed a stronger tendency to move downstream than males. Maximum distance traveled was 380 km and maximum rate of travel was 6.4 km per day. Successful reproduction appeared to be associated with flooding of shoreline vegetation during spring and early summer. Inasmuch as little such flooding is expected in the future, annual landings of bigmouth buffalo will probably continue to decline sharply.

  11. Population dynamics and growth of the bivalve Choromytilus meridionalis (Kr.) at different tidal levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, Roberta J.

    1981-01-01

    Settlement, growth and reproductive output of a population of Choromytilus meridionalis have been monitored at different shore levels at Bailey's Cottage, False Bay, South Africa. Settlement was irregular, occurring at 4- to 6-year intervals, and confined to the sublittoral and lower littoral of rocky areas. Spat settled on the existing mussel bed and adjacent clean rock surfaces. Continual migration of young mussels up the shore took place during the first 1 to 1·5 years of growth until an even distribution up to 0·5 m above L.W.S. was achieved. Juveniles displaced older individuals by moving between them and forcing them off the rocks so that the majority of the adult population were eliminated from the bed within the first year after spat settlement. Mortality in individual cohorts was largely caused by strong wave action and competition for space. The density of individuals within the mussel bed was closely related to mean shell length. Growth rates varied with habitat and declined markedly with increasing height above L.W.S. Sexual maturity was attained at approximately 20 mm and reproductive output rose from 5 kJ year -1 at this length to 80 kJ year -1 at 100 mm shell length. Since packing densities were much higher in smaller individuals the annual gamete output assessed on an area basis, remained fairly constant as the mussels grew, and averaged 1392 g m -2 year -1 dry weight (31 320 kJ m -2 year -1). Energy expended as gonad output exceeded that due to mortality by a factor of 10.

  12. Growth and Reproduction of Glyphosate-Resistant and Susceptible Populations of Kochia scoparia

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Vipan; Jha, Prashant

    2015-01-01

    Evolution of glyphosate-resistant kochia is a threat to no-till wheat-fallow and glyphosate-resistant (GR) cropping systems of the US Great Plains. The EPSPS (5-enol-pyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase) gene amplification confers glyphosate resistance in the tested Kochia scoparia (L.) Schrad populations from Montana. Experiments were conducted in spring to fall 2014 (run 1) and summer 2014 to spring 2015 (run 2) to investigate the growth and reproductive traits of the GR vs. glyphosate-susceptible (SUS) populations of K. scoparia and to determine the relationship of EPSPS gene amplification with the level of glyphosate resistance. GR K. scoparia inbred lines (CHES01 and JOP01) exhibited 2 to 14 relative copies of the EPSPS gene compared with the SUS inbred line with only one copy. In the absence of glyphosate, no differences in growth and reproductive parameters were evident between the tested GR and SUS inbred lines, across an intraspecific competition gradient (1 to 170 plants m-2). GR K. scoparia plants with 2 to 4 copies of the EPSPS gene survived the field-use rate (870 g ha-1) of glyphosate, but failed to survive the 4,350 g ha-1 rate of glyphosate (five-times the field-use rate). In contrast, GR plants with 5 to 14 EPSPS gene copies survived the 4,350 g ha-1 of glyphosate. The results from this research indicate that GR K. scoparia with 5 or more EPSPS gene copies will most likely persist in field populations, irrespective of glyphosate selection pressure. PMID:26580558

  13. Mesoherbivores reduce net growth and induce chemical resistance in natural seaweed populations.

    PubMed

    Toth, Gunilla B; Karlsson, Malin; Pavia, Henrik

    2007-05-01

    Herbivory on marine macroalgae (seaweeds) in temperate areas is often dominated by relatively small gastropods and crustaceans (mesoherbivores). The effects of these herbivores on the performance of adult seaweeds have so far been almost exclusively investigated under artificial laboratory conditions. Furthermore, several recent laboratory studies with mesoherbivores indicate that inducible chemical resistance may be as common in seaweeds as in vascular plants. However, in order to further explore and test the possible ecological significance of induced chemical resistance in temperate seaweeds, data are needed that address this issue in natural populations. We investigated the effect of grazing by littorinid herbivorous snails (Littorina spp.) on the individual net growth of the brown seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum in natural field populations. Furthermore, the capacity for induced resistance in the seaweeds was assessed by removing herbivores and assaying for relaxation of defences. We found that ambient densities of gastropod herbivores significantly reduced net growth by 45% in natural field populations of A. nodosum. Seaweeds previously exposed to grazing in the field were less consumed by gastropod herbivores in feeding bioassays. Furthermore, the concentration of phlorotannins (polyphenolics), which have been shown to deter gastropod herbivores, was higher in the seaweeds that were exposed to gastropod herbivores in the field. This field study corroborates earlier laboratory experiments and demonstrates that it is important to make sure that the lack of experimental field data on marine mesoherbivory does not lead to rash conclusions about the lack of significant effects of these herbivores on seaweed performance. The results strongly suggest that gastropods exert a significant selection pressure on the evolution of defensive traits in the seaweeds, and that brown seaweeds can respond to attacks by natural densities of these herbivores through increased chemical resistance to further grazing. PMID:17225156

  14. Cell Differentiation in a Bacillus thuringiensis Population during Planktonic Growth, Biofilm Formation, and Host Infection

    PubMed Central

    Verplaetse, Emilie; Slamti, Leyla; Gohar, Michel

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is armed to complete a full cycle in its insect host. During infection, virulence factors are expressed under the control of the quorum sensor PlcR to kill the host. After the host’s death, the quorum sensor NprR controls a necrotrophic lifestyle, allowing the vegetative cells to use the insect cadaver as a bioincubator and to survive. Only a part of the Bt population sporulates in the insect cadaver, and the precise composition of the whole population and its evolution over time are unknown. Using fluorescent reporters to record gene expression at the single-cell level, we have determined the differentiation course of a Bt population and explored the lineage existing among virulent, necrotrophic, and sporulating cells. The dynamics of cell differentiation were monitored during growth in homogenized medium, biofilm formation, and colonization of insect larvae. We demonstrated that in the insect host and in planktonic culture in rich medium, the virulence, necrotrophism, and sporulation regulators are successively activated in the same cell. In contrast, in biofilms, activation of PlcR is dispensable for NprR activation and we observed a greater heterogeneity than under the other two growth conditions. We also showed that sporulating cells arise almost exclusively from necrotrophic cells. In biofilm and in the insect cadaver, we identified an as-yet-uncharacterized category of cells that do not express any of the reporters used. Overall, we showed that PlcR, NprR, and Spo0A act as interconnected integrators to allow finely tuned adaptation of the pathogen to its environment. PMID:25922389

  15. Components and Public Health Impact of Population Growth in the Arab World

    PubMed Central

    Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality—the impact of demographic changes—depict a new era in the Arab world. PMID:25993053

  16. Growth and Reproduction of Glyphosate-Resistant and Susceptible Populations of Kochia scoparia.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Vipan; Jha, Prashant

    2015-01-01

    Evolution of glyphosate-resistant kochia is a threat to no-till wheat-fallow and glyphosate-resistant (GR) cropping systems of the US Great Plains. The EPSPS (5-enol-pyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase) gene amplification confers glyphosate resistance in the tested Kochia scoparia (L.) Schrad populations from Montana. Experiments were conducted in spring to fall 2014 (run 1) and summer 2014 to spring 2015 (run 2) to investigate the growth and reproductive traits of the GR vs. glyphosate-susceptible (SUS) populations of K. scoparia and to determine the relationship of EPSPS gene amplification with the level of glyphosate resistance. GR K. scoparia inbred lines (CHES01 and JOP01) exhibited 2 to 14 relative copies of the EPSPS gene compared with the SUS inbred line with only one copy. In the absence of glyphosate, no differences in growth and reproductive parameters were evident between the tested GR and SUS inbred lines, across an intraspecific competition gradient (1 to 170 plants m-2). GR K. scoparia plants with 2 to 4 copies of the EPSPS gene survived the field-use rate (870 g ha-1) of glyphosate, but failed to survive the 4,350 g ha-1 rate of glyphosate (five-times the field-use rate). In contrast, GR plants with 5 to 14 EPSPS gene copies survived the 4,350 g ha-1 of glyphosate. The results from this research indicate that GR K. scoparia with 5 or more EPSPS gene copies will most likely persist in field populations, irrespective of glyphosate selection pressure. PMID:26580558

  17. Effect of crop development on biogenic emissions from plant populations grown in closed plant growth chambers.

    PubMed

    Batten, J H; Stutte, G W; Wheeler, R M

    1995-08-01

    The Biomass Production Chamber at John F. Kennedy Space Center is a closed plant growth chamber facility that can be used to monitor the level of biogenic emissions from large populations of plants throughout their entire growth cycle. The head space atmosphere of a 26-day-old lettuce (Lactuca sativa cv. Waldmann's Green) stand was repeatedly sampled and emissions identified and quantified using GC-mass spectrometry. Concentrations of dimethyl sulphide, carbon disulphide, alpha-pinene, furan and 2-methylfuran were not significantly different throughout the day; whereas, isoprene showed significant differences in concentration between samples collected in light and dark periods. Volatile organic compounds from the atmosphere of wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Yecora Rojo) were analysed and quantified from planting to maturity. Volatile plant-derived compounds included 1-butanol, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, nonanal, benzaldehyde, tetramethylurea, tetramethylthiourea, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran. Concentrations of volatiles were determined during seedling establishment, vegetative growth, anthesis, grain fill and senescence and found to vary depending on the developmental stage. Atmospheric concentrations of benzaldehyde and nonanal were highest during anthesis, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran concentrations were greatest during grain fill, and the concentration of the tetramethylurea peaked during senescence. PMID:7669278

  18. Solids Retention Time Dependent Phototrophic Growth and Population Changes in Chemostat Cultivation Using Wastewater.

    PubMed

    Shen, Qi; Wall, Judy D; Hu, Zhiqiang

    2016-01-01

    There has been renewed interest in using algae for wastewater polishing and treatment in recent years. Because solids retention time (SRT) is a key design and operating parameter in bioreactor operation, this research determined the effect of SRT on phototrophic growth and microbial population dynamics in continuous-flow chemostat systems. There was a unique feature of phototrophic growth that differed from chemotrophic growth in chemostat. It was found that the phototrophic biomass concentration increased proportionally as SRT increased from 3 to 9 days. Regardless of the change in SRT, a step function model was successfully applied with the predicted phototrophic production rate of 4.5 ± 0.9 g/m(2)·d at the light intensity of 68.5 μmol/m(2)·s. Even though the continuous-flow systems were initially seeded with a 1:1 mixture of green algae and cyanobacteria, Chlorella vulgaris always dominated (98%) in the continuous-flow chemostat systems under steady-state conditions. PMID:26803021

  19. Effect of crop development on biogenic emissions from plant populations grown in closed plant growth chambers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batten, J. H.; Stutte, G. W.; Wheeler, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    The Biomass Production Chamber at John F. Kennedy Space Center is a closed plant growth chamber facility that can be used to monitor the level of biogenic emissions from large populations of plants throughout their entire growth cycle. The head space atmosphere of a 26-day-old lettuce (Lactuca sativa cv. Waldmann's Green) stand was repeatedly sampled and emissions identified and quantified using GC-mass spectrometry. Concentrations of dimethyl sulphide, carbon disulphide, alpha-pinene, furan and 2-methylfuran were not significantly different throughout the day; whereas, isoprene showed significant differences in concentration between samples collected in light and dark periods. Volatile organic compounds from the atmosphere of wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Yecora Rojo) were analysed and quantified from planting to maturity. Volatile plant-derived compounds included 1-butanol, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, nonanal, benzaldehyde, tetramethylurea, tetramethylthiourea, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran. Concentrations of volatiles were determined during seedling establishment, vegetative growth, anthesis, grain fill and senescence and found to vary depending on the developmental stage. Atmospheric concentrations of benzaldehyde and nonanal were highest during anthesis, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran concentrations were greatest during grain fill, and the concentration of the tetramethylurea peaked during senescence.

  20. Effect of dichromate on population and growth of various protozoa isolated from industrial effluents.

    PubMed

    Haq, R U; Rehman, A; Shakoori, A R

    2000-01-01

    Three protozoa belonging to genera Euglena, Vorticella and Stylonychia collected from industrial wastes were cultured in a medium containing inorganic salts, basically meant for the growth of algae. Protozoa showed rapid growth in the medium. Hexavalent chromium (K2Cr2O7) at a concentration of 5 micrograms/L in the medium adversely affected the growth of protozoa. At the end of eight days of Cr administration, the population of Euglena, Vorticella and Stylonychia increased 8-, 4.5- and 10-fold, respectively, as against 30-, 6.75- and 50-fold increase in the control cultures. No apparent death phase and no change in activity or morphology of protozoa was observed at this Cr concentration. The protozoa were also exposed to different metal ions, viz. Pb (2.42 mmol/L), Cr (0.48 mmol/L), Cd (0.36 mmol/L), administered in the culture medium for a period of 2 years. The metal tolerance for S. mytilus and V. microstoma was Pb > Cr > Cd. E. proxima could not tolerate any of the long-term metal treatments. Because of the ability of these protozoa to tolerate high concentrations of heavy metals, their potential role in remediation of heavy metals from industrial wastewater is considered. PMID:11271815

  1. Unraveling the origin of exponential law in intra-urban human mobility

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Xiao; Zhao, Jichang; Dong, Li; Xu, Ke

    2013-01-01

    The vast majority of travel takes place within cities. Recently, new data has become available which allows for the discovery of urban mobility patterns which differ from established results about long distance travel. Specifically, the latest evidence increasingly points to exponential trip length distributions, contrary to the scaling laws observed on larger scales. In this paper, in order to explore the origin of the exponential law, we propose a new model which can predict individual flows in urban areas better. Based on the model, we explain the exponential law of intra-urban mobility as a result of the exponential decrease in average population density in urban areas. Indeed, both empirical and analytical results indicate that the trip length and the population density share the same exponential decaying rate. PMID:24136012

  2. World population and energy growth: Impact on the Caribbean and the roles of energy efficiency improvements and renewable energies

    SciTech Connect

    Sheffield, J.

    1997-06-01

    This paper briefly describes population and energy use trends and their consequences, particularly to the Caribbean region. Historical trends for transitional countries show a decrease in population growth rate as annual per capita commercial energy use increases. If trends continue, an increase in per capita energy will be important to stabilizing populations of transitional countries. Energy efficiency improvements, the role of fossil energy, and the use of alternative energy sources in Caribbean nations are briefly discussed. 6 refs., 3 figs.

  3. Structure, growth and secondary production of two Tyrrhenian populations of the white gorgonian Eunicella singularis (Esper 1791)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munari, Cristina; Serafin, Greta; Mistri, Michele

    2013-03-01

    Growth and secondary production of the shallow-water gorgonian Eunicella singularis were investigated at two infralittoral rocky stations located in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Cannitello and Cape Enfola), separated by a cline of 4 latitude. Colonies were aged by counting the number of annual growth rings at the base of the skeleton. Mean annual linear growth rates were calculated by fitting a von Bertalanffy growth equation for the species. Growth rates were 3.55 and 4.52 cm yr-1 respectively. The Enfola population exhibited an age structure reflecting a past pulse in recruitment. The Cannitello population exhibited a gamma-type distribution, dominated by younger age classes, thus suggesting a continuous recruitment rate over time. The two population differed also in colony density, which was higher at Enfola. Secondary production was estimated by means of the increment-summation method, and yielded 5.6 and 3.2 g ash-free dry weight (AFDW) m-2 yr-1 for Cannitello and Enfola populations, respectively. P/B ratio was higher at Cannitello, because of the age structure of the population. Strong currents probably cause population density-thinning mechanisms, favoring a more continuous recruitment.

  4. Effects of tag loss on direct estimates of population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rotella, J.J.; Hines, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    The temporal symmetry approach of R. Pradel can be used with capture-recapture data to produce retrospective estimates of a population's growth rate, lambda(i), and the relative contributions to lambda(i) from different components of the population. Direct estimation of lambda(i) provides an alternative to using population projection matrices to estimate asymptotic lambda and is seeing increased use. However, the robustness of direct estimates of lambda(1) to violations of several key assumptions has not yet been investigated. Here, we consider tag loss as a possible source of bias for scenarios in which the rate of tag loss is (1) the same for all marked animals in the population and (2) a function of tag age. We computed analytic approximations of the expected values for each of the parameter estimators involved in direct estimation and used those values to calculate bias and precision for each parameter estimator. Estimates of lambda(i) were robust to homogeneous rates of tag loss. When tag loss rates varied by tag age, bias occurred for some of the sampling situations evaluated, especially those with low capture probability, a high rate of tag loss, or both. For situations with low rates of tag loss and high capture probability, bias was low and often negligible. Estimates of contributions of demographic components to lambda(i) were not robust to tag loss. Tag loss reduced the precision of all estimates because tag loss results in fewer marked animals remaining available for estimation. Clearly tag loss should be prevented if possible, and should be considered in analyses of lambda(i), but tag loss does not necessarily preclude unbiased estimation of lambda(i).

  5. Three pitfalls in the construction of family-based models of population growth.

    PubMed

    Kemp, M C; Leonard, D; Long, N V

    1984-08-01

    This paper describes 3 pitfalls in the construction of family-based models of population growth which must be avoided if internal consistency and empirical relevance are to be maintained. Models of the family in which the number as well as the quality of children are subject to choice were pioneered by Becker in 1960 and more recently have served as a base for the theoretical analysis of population size. In these economic models of population, family size and bequests are the outcomes of utility-maximizing family decisions, with the utility of each family viewed as depending on family consumption, family size, and prospective welfare of children, while the age structure of the population is an endogenous variable. All the models are static and focus on the properties of steady states. The 1st pitfall concerns the internal logical consistency of the models and consists in the possibility that the typical family's maximization problem may have no solution, even with a well-behaved concave utility function. The other 2 pitfalls concern the consistency of the model with some "gross facts of life", 1 deriving from the possibility that, even when the family's maximization problem has a solution, the phase diagram for the stock of capital may contain no steady state other than the origin, and the other that even when there exists a non-trivial steady state for the stock of capital, the community may nevertheless face extinction. The 3 pitfalls can be avoided if utility and production functions are subjected to more stringent restrictions than are usually found in economic theory. PMID:12313730

  6. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    PubMed Central

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a continuous decrease. Infant mortality considerably decreased (from 164‰ in 1950 to 20.5‰ in 2010). The causes of infant mortality have still been tightly related with the causes of the developing countries. Next to this, natality and the natural population growth have experienced a considerably decrease in Kosovo. Even though there have been some improvements within the health care in Kosovo, there is still a lot to be done with the aim of constant improvement of health care in order to promote the health care for mothers and children. PMID:23678327

  7. Comparison of germination, growth, photosynthetic responses and metal uptake between three populations of Spartina densiflora under different soil pollution conditions.

    PubMed

    Mateos-Naranjo, E; Andrades-Moreno, L; Redondo-Gmez, S

    2011-10-01

    Spartina densiflora has demonstrated a high tolerance to heavy metal contamination and a high capacity for accumulating metal in its tissues. In the Gulf of Cadiz this species has colonized habitats with different degrees of metal pollution. The aim of this study is to analyse the responses of populations of Spartina densiflora to this pollution. Germination, growth, photosynthesis and metal uptake of two populations of Spartina densiflora collected from contaminated sites (Odiel and Tinto marshes) and of one population from a clean site (Piedras marshes) were examined through two reciprocal experiments, in which seeds and adult plants were exposed to metal-contaminated and uncontaminated soil under greenhouse conditions. The seeds of Spartina densiflora were able to germinate in all sediments with little differences between populations, even in more contaminated soils. However, these conditions decreased the growth and survival of the seedlings to a similar degree for all populations. Likewise, no differences were recorded in relation to physiological and metal uptake. Contrarily, in the adult experiment, we found that the Odiel population differed from the other populations in growth and metal uptake, with overall greater values. These differences in growth were strongly supported by lower photosynthetic rates and stomatal conductance in the Piedras and Tinto populations. The reduction in photosynthetic performance was largely due to the reduction in photosynthetic pigment concentration in both populations. Despite these differences, there was insufficient evidence to support that Spartina has evolved to heavy-tolerant ecotypes, since all Spartina densiflora populations proved to have a great capacity for accumulating heavy metals in its roots. Nonetheless, this finding suggests that the Odiel population could have a greater phytoremediation potential. PMID:21762986

  8. Population growth rate responses of Ceriodaphnia dubia to ternary mixtures of specific acting chemicals: pharmacological versus ecotoxicological modes of action.

    PubMed

    Barata, Carlos; Fernández-San Juan, María; Feo, Maria Luisa; Eljarrrat, Ethel; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Barceló, Damià; Baird, Donald J

    2012-09-01

    When considering joint toxic apical effects at higher levels of biological organization, such as the growth of populations, the so-called pharmacological mode of action that relies on toxicological mechanistic effects on molecular target sites may not be relevant. Such effects on population growth rate will depend on the extent to which juvenile and adult survival rates and production rates (juvenile developmental rates and reproduction) are affected by toxic exposure and also by the sensitivity of population growth rates to life-history changes. In such cases, the ecotoxicological mode of action, defined as the crucial life-history trait processes and/or xenobiotic-life-history trait interactions underlying a toxicological effect on population growth rate, should be considered. Life-table response experiments with the crustacean Ceriodaphnia dubia exposed to single and ternary mixtures of nine compounds were conducted to test the hypothesis that joint effects on population growth rates could be predicted from the mixture constituent ecotoxicological mode of action. Joint effects of mixtures containing pharmacologically dissimilar compounds (cadmium, λ-cyhalothrin, and chlorpyrifos) that differentially affected life-history traits contributing to population growth rates were accurately predicted by the independent-action concept. Conversely, the concentration-addition concept accurately predicted joint effects of two different mixtures: one containing pharmacologically similar acting pyrethroids that also affected similarly life-history traits, the other one that included pharmacologically dissimilar compounds (3,4-dichloroaniline, sodium bromide, and fenoxycarb) acting mainly on reproduction rates. These results indicate that when assessing combined effects on population growth rate responses, selection of mixture toxicity conceptual models based on the ecotoxicological mode of action of mixture constituents provided more accurate predictions than those based on the pharmacological mode of action. PMID:22827446

  9. Human growth hormone (GH1) gene polymorphism map in a normal-statured adult population

    PubMed Central

    Esteban, Cristina; Audí, Laura; Carrascosa, Antonio; Fernández-Cancio, Mónica; Pérez-Arroyo, Annalisa; Ulied, Angels; Andaluz, Pilar; Arjona, Rosa; Albisu, Marian; Clemente, María; Gussinyé, Miquel; Yeste, Diego

    2007-01-01

    Objective GH1 gene presents a complex map of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the entire promoter, coding and noncoding regions. The aim of the study was to establish the complete map of GH1 gene SNPs in our control normal population and to analyse its association with adult height. Design, subjects and measurements A systematic GH1 gene analysis was designed in a control population of 307 adults of both sexes with height normally distributed within normal range for the same population: −2 standard deviation scores (SDS) to +2 SDS. An analysis was performed on individual and combined genotype associations with adult height. Results Twenty-five SNPs presented a frequency over 1%: 11 in the promoter (P1 to P11), three in the 5′UTR region (P12 to P14), one in exon 1 (P15), three in intron 1 (P16 to P18), two in intron 2 (P19 and P20), two in exon 4 (P21 and P22) and three in intron 4 (P23 to P25). Twenty-nine additional changes with frequencies under 1% were found in 29 subjects. P8, P19, P20 and P25 had not been previously described. P6, P12, P17 and P25 accounted for 6·2% of the variation in adult height (P = 0·0007) in this population with genotypes A/G at P6, G/G at P6 and A/G at P12 decreasing height SDS (−0·063 ± 0·031, −0·693 ± 0·350 and −0·489 ± 0·265, Mean ± SE) and genotypes A/T at P17 and T/G at P25 increasing height SDS (+1·094 ± 0·456 and +1·184 ± 0·432). Conclusions This study established the GH1 gene sequence variation map in a normal adult height control population confirming the high density of SNPs in a relatively small gene. Our study shows that the more frequent SNPs did not significantly contribute to height determination, while only one promoter and two intronic SNPs contributed significantly to it. Studies in larger populations will have to confirm the associations and in vitro functional studies will elucidate the mechanisms involved. Systematic GH1 gene analysis in patients with growth delay and suspected GH deficiency/insufficiency will clarify whether different SNP frequencies and/or the presence of different sequence changes may be associated with phenotypes in them. PMID:17223997

  10. Effects of wind energy production on growth, demography, and survivorship of a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population in Southern California with comparisons to natural populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lovich, J.E.; Ennen, J.R.; Madrak, S.; Meyer, K.; Loughran, C.; Bjurlin, C.; Arundel, T.; Turner, W.; Jones, C.; Groenendaal, G.M.

    2011-01-01

    We studied a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population at a large wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California over six field seasons from 1997 to 2010. We compared growth and demographic parameters to populations living in less disturbed areas; as well as populations of the closely-related and newly-described G. morafkai elsewhere in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. We marked 69 individuals of all size classes and estimated a population size of 96 tortoises, or about 15.4/km2. Growth rates for males were lower than reported elsewhere, although maximum body size was larger. The smallest female with shelled eggs was 221 mm and males mature at over 200 mm. Mean male size was greater than that of females. The adult sex ratio was not significantly different from unity. Size frequency histograms were similar over time and when compared to most, but not all, G. morafkai populations in the Sonoran Desert. For a cohort of adult females, we estimated mortality at 8.4% annually due, in part, to site operations. This value was low in comparison to many other populations during the same time period. Other than possible differences in growth rate of males and the high survivorship of females, there appear to be few differences between this population and those in more natural areas. The high productivity of food plants at the site and its limited public access may contribute to the overall stability of the population. However, the effects of utility-scale renewable energy development on tortoises in other, less productive, areas are unknown. Additional research (especially controlled and replicated before and after studies) is urgently needed to address this deficiency because of forecasted expansion of utility-scale renewable energy development in the future.

  11. The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular sampling intervals caused by differing weather conditions may range from weeks to one month, whereby the latter represents the upper limit: larger intervals could render the data set worthless. The number of sampling points at the location must be more than 4, randomly distributed and approximately 5m apart to smooth the effects of patchy distributions, which are typical for most LBF. Only three simple measurements are necessary to determine chamber building rate and population dynamics under natural conditions. These are the number of individuals, number of chambers and the largest diameter of the individual. The determination of a standardized sample surface area, which is necessary for population dynamic investigations, depends on the sampling method. Reproduction and longevity can be estimated based on shell size using the date where the mean abundance of specimens with minimum size (expected after a one month's growth) characterizes the reproduction period. Then the difference to the date with the mean abundance of specimens characterized by large size indicating readiness for reproduction marks the life time. Calculation of the chamber-building rate based on chamber number is more complex and depends on the reproduction period and longevity. This can be fitted with theoretical growth functions (e.g. Michaelis Menten Function). According to the above mentioned methods, chamber building rates, longevity and population dynamics can be obtained for the shallow sublittoral symbiont-bearing LBF using the 'natural laboratory'.

  12. The protective function of personal growth initiative among a genocide-affected population in Rwanda.

    PubMed

    Blackie, Laura E R; Jayawickreme, Eranda; Forgeard, Marie J C; Jayawickreme, Nuwan

    2015-07-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the extent to which individual differences in personal growth initiative (PGI) were associated with lower reports of functional impairment of daily activities among a genocide-affected population in Rwanda. PGI measures an individual's motivation to develop as a person and the extent to which he or she is active in setting goals that work toward achieving self-improvement. We found that PGI was negatively associated with functional impairment when controlling for depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, and other demographic factors. Our results suggest that PGI may constitute an important mindset for facilitating adaptive functioning in the aftermath of adversity and in the midst of psychological distress, and as such they might have practical applications for the development of intervention programs. PMID:26147518

  13. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  14. Ab initio phenomenological simulation of the growth of large tumor cell populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chignola, Roberto; DelFabbro, Alessio; Dalla Pellegrina, Chiara; Milotti, Edoardo

    2007-06-01

    In a previous paper we have introduced a phenomenological model of cell metabolism and of the cell cycle to simulate the behavior of large tumor cell populations (Chignola and Milotti 2005 Phys. Biol. 2 8). Here we describe a refined and extended version of the model that includes some of the complex interactions between cells and their surrounding environment. The present version takes into consideration several additional energy-consuming biochemical pathways such as protein and DNA synthesis, the tuning of extracellular pH and of the cell membrane potential. The control of the cell cycle, which was previously modeled by means of ad hoc thresholds, has been directly addressed here by considering checkpoints from proteins that act as targets for phosphorylation on multiple sites. As simulated cells grow, they can now modify the chemical composition of the surrounding environment which in turn acts as a feedback mechanism to tune cell metabolism and hence cell proliferation: in this way we obtain growth curves that match quite well those observed in vitro with human leukemia cell lines. The model is strongly constrained and returns results that can be directly compared with actual experiments, because it uses parameter values in narrow ranges estimated from experimental data, and in perspective we hope to utilize it to develop in silico studies of the growth of very large tumor cell populations (106 cells or more) and to support experimental research. In particular, the program is used here to make predictions on the behavior of cells grown in a glucose-poor medium: these predictions are confirmed by experimental observation.

  15. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Pat; Landahl, John

    This pamphlet has been prepared in response to a new problem, a rapidly increasing population, and a new need, population education. It is designed to help teachers provide their students with some basic population concepts with stress placed on the elements of decision making. In the first section of the pamphlet, some of the basic concepts of…

  16. A note on exponential absolute stability.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siljak, D. D.; Sun, C. K.

    1972-01-01

    A new sufficient condition is formulated for the Lur'e type nonlinear continuous system to be exponentially absolutely stable. The condition relaxes the assumptions on the nonlinear characteristic by modifying the requirements on the linear part of the system.

  17. Influence of maternal nutritional status on prenatal growth in a Peruvian urban population.

    PubMed

    Frisancho, A R; Klayman, J E; Matos, J

    1977-03-01

    Anthropometric measurements were made on 4,952 mothers and their neonates from a Peruvian urban population. Based on age-specific percentiles, the mothers were separated into categories of short and tall stature, high and low fat, and high and low muscle. The study indicates that: (1) tall and short mothers characterized by similar subcutaneous fat and upper arm muscle area (whether high or low) had newborns with similar birth weight and recumbent length; (2) mothers characterized by high subcutaneous fat had heavier and fatter, but not longer, newborns than mothers with low subcutaneous fat; (3) mothers characterized by high upper arm muscle area had heavier, leaner and longer newborns than mothers with low upper arm muscle area; (4) mothers characterized by high muscle and high fat had heavier and longer newborns than mothers with high muscle and low fat; but (5) mothers characterized by high muscle and low fat had heavier and longer newborns than mothers with low muscle and high fat. Considering that subcutaneous fat and arm muscle area reflect calorie and protein reserves respectively, it is concluded that an increase in maternal calorie reserves results in increased infant fatness, but a lesser increase in linear growth. In contrast, an increase in maternal protein reserves does enhance both birth weight and prenatal linear growth. PMID:848566

  18. Differential effects of growth and loss processes in controlling natural phytoplankton populations

    SciTech Connect

    Crumpton, W.G.

    1980-01-01

    An investigation was made of factors controlling algal succession in a small, oligotrophic lake during summer stratification. Weekly measurements were made of growth rate, sedimentation rate, and population density for each of the dominant phytoplankton species. Weekly diel measurements were made of zooplankton grazing rates using /sup 14/C labeled algae. Cyclotella michiganiana was the dominant algae through the end of June at which time Cyclotella comensis began to increase, becoming the dominant by August. In August, high grazing pressure caused the rapid declines of both C. michiganiana and C. comensis which were followed by an increase of Sphaerocystis Schroeteri. The combined effect of greater growth rates and lower loss rates of C. comensis resulted in its dominance over of C. michiganiana. In contrast, the C. comensis - S. Schroeteri succession clearly resulted from differential mortality alone. It is likely that the importance of losses due to sedimentation and/or grazing is large in many lakes and that interspecific competition may be less important in actually controlling seasonal succession.

  19. An analysis of the population growth in the Seventh Five-Year Plan period.

    PubMed

    Yang, S

    1991-06-01

    The analysis of the 7th 5-Year, Plan in China indicates 30 million more people than the 1.113 billion targeted for 1990, i.e., total population is 1.143 billion. An average increase of 13.75 million annually between 1980-85 occurred; the average annual births were 20.47 million and deaths were 6.73 million. Between 1985-90, the average increase grew to 17.45 million, with births at 24.95 million and deaths at 7.50 million. There were 4.48 million more births annually in the recent past, attributed to women born during the baby boom in the 1960s. The actual average number of children per couple dropped. 256.47 million women averaged annually were of childbearing ages of 15-49 from 1980-85, and 291.43 million from 1985 to 1990. In the most fecund ages, 20-29 years, the number of women increased by 16.65%, from 86.01 to 100.33 million in 1985-90. The actual 1985 population was 1.05579, and the difference between the expected and the actual in 1985 and the fertility estimates account for the 30 million difference is the 1990 expected and actual population. 10.5 million are due to the estimating error in population and 8 million to the estimating error in fertility. The other 12 million are a result of unanticipated fertility increase. in developing the 7th 5 Year Plan, expectations were too high for the decline in fertility, and unplanned births were not brought under control. The trends in the 1980s were ones of an initial sharp reduction and then narrow ranged fluctuations. The transition was not apparent. There was great eagerness to have a sharp decline because of the overpaid population growth, which was an aspiration not a reality. The 1986-87 period produced millions of unplanned births. Contributing factors were also adjustments made in the family planning policy and ineffective family planning programs. PMID:12343637

  20. Population growth rate and energy consumption correlations: Implications for the future

    SciTech Connect

    Sheffield, J.

    1998-01-01

    The fertility rate for women and the related population growth rate, for numerous developing (transitional) countries, show a downward trend with increasing annual per capita energy use. On the assumption that such historic trends will continue, estimates are made for some simple cases of the energy demands required to stabilize the world`s population in the period 2,100 to 2,150. An assessment is then made of how these energy demands might be met, capitalizing as much as possible on the indigenous energy resources for each of the ten major regions of the world: North America, Latin America, Europe OECD, Former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe, China, Pacific OECD, East Asia, South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Consideration is also given to the potential need to limit carbon emissions because of global warming concerns. The study highlights the crucial nature of energy efficiency improvements and the need to utilize all energy sources, if the world is to find a sustainable future with an improved standard of living for the developing world.

  1. Association of insulin-like growth factor-1 polymorphisms with high myopia in the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    Zhuang, Wenjuan; Li, Zili; Sheng, Xunlun; Zhao, Jingjing; Li, Shanshan; Yang, Xueqiu; Xiang, Wei; Rong, Weining; Liu, Yani; Zhang, Fangxia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine whether genetic variants in the insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) gene were associated with high myopia in the Chinese population. Methods A case-control association study of 421 unrelated Chinese patients with high myopia and 401 control subjects matched in ethnicity and gender was undertaken. Genomic DNA was prepared from peripheral blood. All individuals were genotyped for 7 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) across the IGF-1 gene region. Genotypic distribution was tested for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. The genotype and allele frequencies were evaluated using the χ2 tests. Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparisons were performed. Results The polymorphism of rs12423791 showed positive association with extreme myopia (pallel=0.006 and pallel1 recessive model=0.004, respectively) after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing and the haplotype GC of rs5742629-rs12423791 was also associated with extreme myopia (p=0.033) after 50,000 permutations for multiple comparisons. Conclusions The polymorphism of rs12423791 in IGF-1 may be associated with extreme myopia in the Chinese population and should be investigated further. PMID:22509095

  2. Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

    2008-01-01

    Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

  3. Bacterial Population in Intestines of the Black Tiger Shrimp (Penaeus monodon) under Different Growth Stages

    PubMed Central

    Rungrassamee, Wanilada; Klanchui, Amornpan; Chaiyapechara, Sage; Maibunkaew, Sawarot; Tangphatsornruang, Sithichoke; Jiravanichpaisal, Pikul; Karoonuthaisiri, Nitsara

    2013-01-01

    Intestinal bacterial communities in aquaculture have been drawn to attention due to potential benefit to their hosts. To identify core intestinal bacteria in the black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon), bacterial populations of disease-free shrimp were characterized from intestines of four developmental stages (15-day-old post larvae (PL15), 1- (J1), 2- (J2), and 3-month-old (J3) juveniles) using pyrosequencing, real-time PCR and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) approaches. A total of 25,121 pyrosequencing reads (reading length = 442±24 bases) were obtained, which were categorized by barcode for PL15 (7,045 sequences), J1 (3,055 sequences), J2 (13,130 sequences) and J3 (1,890 sequences). Bacteria in the phyla Bacteroides, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria were found in intestines at all four growth stages. There were 88, 14, 27, and 20 bacterial genera associated with the intestinal tract of PL15, J1, J2 and J3, respectively. Pyrosequencing analysis revealed that Proteobacteria (class Gammaproteobacteria) was a dominant bacteria group with a relative abundance of 89% for PL15 and 99% for J1, J2 and J3. Real-time PCR assay also confirmed that Gammaproteobacteria had the highest relative abundance in intestines from all growth stages. Intestinal bacterial communities from the three juvenile stages were more similar to each other than that of the PL shrimp based on PCA analyses of pyrosequencing results and their DGGE profiles. This study provides descriptive bacterial communities associated to the black tiger shrimp intestines during these growth development stages in rearing facilities. PMID:23577162

  4. Radiative Impacts on the Growth of a Population of Drops within Simulated Summertime Arctic Stratus.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, Jerry Y.; Feingold, Graham; Cotton, William R.

    2000-03-01

    The impact of solar heating and infrared cooling on the growth of a population of drops is studied with two numerical modeling frameworks. An eddy-resolving model (ERM) simulation of Arctic stratus clouds is used to generate a dataset of 500 parcel trajectories that follow the mean dynamic motions of the simulated cloud. The 500-parcel dataset is used to drive a trajectory ensemble model (TEM) coupled to an explicit microphysical model that includes the radiative term in the vapor growth equation. The second framework is that of the ERM itself.Results from the TEM show that the production of drizzle-sized drops is strongly dependent upon parcel cloud-top residence time for both radiative- and nonradiative-influenced growth. Drizzle-sized drops can be produced between 20 and 50 min earlier through the inclusion of the radiative term, which corroborates earlier results. The radiative effect may also cause drops with r < 10 m to evaporate, producing a bimodal size spectrum. Parcel cloud-top residence times as short as 12 min can initiate this bimodal spectrum. TEM results show that the radiative effect increases drizzle drop mass predominately in parcels that tend to contribute to drizzle even in the absence of the radiative term. Activation of large cloud condensation nuclei appears to have a larger effect on drizzle production than does the radiative term. ERM simulations show a weak overall influence of the radiative term. Drizzle onset occurs earlier when the radiative term is included (about 20 min), but there is no strong change in the overall structure or evolution of the cloud.

  5. Exponential fitting quadrature rule for functional equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardone, A.; Paternoster, B.; Santomauro, G.

    2012-09-01

    A Gaussian quadrature rule for periodic integrand function is presented. The weights and nodes depend on the frequency of the problem and they are constructed by following the exponential fitting theory. The composite rule based on this formula is derived. The analysis of the error is carried out and it proves that the exponentially fitted Gaussian rule is more accurate than the classical Gauss-Legendre rule when oscillatory functions are treated. Some numerical tests are presented.

  6. Use of a large multiparent wheat mapping population in genomic dissection of coleoptile and seedling growth.

    PubMed

    Rebetzke, Greg J; Verbyla, Arunas P; Verbyla, Klara L; Morell, Matthew K; Cavanagh, Colin R

    2014-02-01

    Identification of alleles towards the selection for improved seedling vigour is a key objective of many wheat breeding programmes. A multiparent advanced generation intercross (MAGIC) population developed from four commercial spring wheat cultivars (cvv. Baxter, Chara, Westonia and Yitpi) and containing ca. 1000 F(2) -derived, F(6:7) RILs was assessed at two contrasting soil temperatures (12 and 20 °C) for shoot length and coleoptile characteristics length and thickness. Narrow-sense heritabilities were high for coleoptile and shoot length (h(2) = 0.68-0.70), indicating a strong genetic basis for the differences among progeny. Genotypic variation was large, and distributions of genotype means were approximately Gaussian with evidence for transgressive segregation for all traits. A number of significant QTL were identified for all early growth traits, and these were commonly repeatable across the different soil temperatures. The largest negative effects on coleoptile lengths were associated with Rht-B1b (-8.2%) and Rht-D1b (-10.9%) dwarfing genes varying in the population. Reduction in coleoptile length with either gene was particularly large at the warmer soil temperature. Other large QTL for coleoptile length were identified on chromosomes 1A, 2B, 4A, 5A and 6B, but these were relatively smaller than allelic effects at the Rht-B1 and Rht-D1 loci. A large coleoptile length effect allele (a = 5.3 mm at 12 °C) was identified on chromosome 1AS despite the relatively shorter coleoptile length of the donor Yitpi. Strong, positive genetic correlations for coleoptile and shoot lengths (r(g) = 0.85-0.90) support the co-location of QTL for these traits and suggest a common physiological basis for both. The multiparent population has enabled the identification of promising shoot and coleoptile QTL despite the potential for the confounding of large effect dwarfing gene alleles present in the commercial parents. The incidence of these alleles in commercial wheat breeding programmes should facilitate their ready implementation in selection of varieties with improved establishment and early growth. PMID:24151921

  7. Development and population dynamics of Steinernema yirgalemense (Rhabditida: Steinernematidae) and growth characteristics of its associated Xenorhabdus indica symbiont in liquid culture.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, T; Addison, M F; Malan, A P

    2016-05-01

    Entomopathogenic nematodes have become a valuable addition to the range of biological control agents available for insect control. An endemic nematode, Steinernema yirgalemense, has been found to be effective against a wide range of key insect pests. The next step would be the mass production this nematode for commercial application. This requires the establishment of monoxenic cultures of both the nematode and the symbiotic bacterium Xenorhabdus indica. First-stage juveniles of S. yirgalemense were obtained from eggs, while X. indica was isolated from nematode-infected wax moth larvae. The population density of the various life stages of S. yirgalemense during the developmental phase in liquid culture was determined. The recovery of infective juveniles (IJs) to the third-stage feeding juveniles, was 67 ± 10%, reaching a maximum population density of 75,000 IJs ml- 1 on day 13 after inoculation. Adult density increased after 8 days, with the maximum female density being 4600 ml- 1 on day 15, whereas the maximum male density was 4300 ml- 1 on day 12. Growth curves for X. indica showed that the exponential phase was reached 15 h after inoculation to the liquid medium. The stationary phase was reached after 42 h, with an average of 51 × 107 colony-forming units ml- 1. Virulence tests showed a significant difference in insect mortality between in vitro- and in vivo-produced nematodes. The success obtained with the production of S. yirgalemense in liquid culture can serve as the first step in the optimizing and upscaling of the commercial production of nematodes in fermenters. PMID:26156314

  8. Effects of five insect growth regulators on laboratory populations of the North American house-dust mite, Dermatophagoides farinae.

    PubMed

    Downing, A S; Wright, C G; Farrier, M H

    1990-08-01

    The potential of insect growth regulators (methoprene, hydroprene, fenoxycarb, diflubenzuron and triflumuron) to control populations of the North American house-dust mite Dermatophagoides farinae (Hughes) was assessed in laboratory bioassays. Methoprene was most effective at suppressing population growth, especially at concentrations of 1.0% (10,000 ppm) and 5.0% (5000 ppm) active ingredient. Hydroprene, structurally related to methoprene, also suppressed house-dust mite populations but not as consistently as methoprene. Fenoxycarb may be effective at controlling house-dust mites but at greater concentrations than were tested. Diflubenzuron and triflumuron, two chitin-synthesis inhibitors, failed to suppress mite numbers and may, in fact, stimulate reproduction in some cases. Almost all concentration of the insect growth regulators were shown to be ineffective when assayed 90 days after treatment. PMID:2226070

  9. The Existence of Weak D-Pullback Exponential Attractor for Nonautonomous Dynamical System.

    PubMed

    Li, Yongjun; Wei, Xiaona; Zhang, Yanhong

    2016-01-01

    First, for a process {U(t, τ)∣t ≥ τ}, we introduce a new concept, called the weak D-pullback exponential attractor, which is a family of sets {ℳ(t)∣t ≤ T}, for any T ∈ ℝ, satisfying the following: (i) ℳ(t) is compact, (ii) ℳ(t) is positively invariant, that is, U(t, τ)ℳ(τ) ⊂ ℳ(t), and (iii) there exist k, l > 0 such that dist(U(t, τ)B(τ), ℳ(t)) ≤ ke (-(t-τ)); that is, ℳ(t) pullback exponential attracts B(τ). Then we give a method to obtain the existence of weak D-pullback exponential attractors for a process. As an application, we obtain the existence of weak D-pullback exponential attractor for reaction diffusion equation in H 0 (1) with exponential growth of the external force. PMID:27119090

  10. The Association Between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents’ Economic Well-Being*

    PubMed Central

    Hunter, Lori M.; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2011-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here empirically models long-term rural residents’ economic well-being, making use of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In general, the results suggest that long-term rural families residing in high-growth amenity and recreation areas tend to have higher annual incomes than do their counterparts in non-growth amenity/recreation areas, regardless of the sex, race, or age of the family head. However, higher costs-of-living in these areas supplant any relative gains in income. As such, these analyses provide empirical evidence of patterns inferred by earlier anecdotal evidence and case studies. PMID:21874070

  11. The Association Between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D; Saint Onge, Jarron M

    2005-12-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here empirically models long-term rural residents' economic well-being, making use of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In general, the results suggest that long-term rural families residing in high-growth amenity and recreation areas tend to have higher annual incomes than do their counterparts in non-growth amenity/recreation areas, regardless of the sex, race, or age of the family head. However, higher costs-of-living in these areas supplant any relative gains in income. As such, these analyses provide empirical evidence of patterns inferred by earlier anecdotal evidence and case studies. PMID:21874070

  12. Variation Amongst Survivor Populations of White Clover Collected from Sites Across Europe: Growth Attributes and Physiological Responses to Low Temperature

    PubMed Central

    COLLINS, ROSEMARY P.; HELGADTTIR, SLAUG; FOTHERGILL, MICK; RHODES, IAN

    2002-01-01

    Experiments were carried out at IGER, Aberystwyth, UK to investigate traits of direct relevance to the processes of overwintering and spring growth in white clover (Trifolium repens L.). The plant material used was derived from baseline populations of the cultivar AberHerald and survivor populations generated after 23 years growth in Germany (Kiel), Sweden (Uppsala) and Switzerland (Zrich). The aims of the experiments were to measure the level of genetic shift that had occurred in certain traits due to selection in the survivor populations by comparing these with the baseline population. The adaptive significance of traits was assessed by determining the extent to which stabilizing selection had operated to reduce levels of intra?population variation. Significant differences were found in the responses of leaf production to two temperature treatments in the survivor populations from Germany and Sweden compared with the Swiss and baseline material. Plants of the former two populations produced much more leaf than the others at the higher temperature, but leaf production rates at the lower temperature did not differ. As this experiment used cloned genotypes in the two treatments, the result suggests that a higher degree of phenotypic plasticity for this trait had been selected for in the German and Swedish populations. These populations also showed greater rates of regrowth of leaves from terminal buds exposed to sub?zero temperatures, but there were no differences between populations in levels of freezing tolerance, or in stolon carbohydrate content. Genetic shift occurred in the degree of unsaturation of stolon lipids, with all three survivor populations possessing higher proportions of unsaturated fatty acids than the baseline. Stabilizing selection also operated on this trait in the survivor populations, suggesting that it is of adaptive significance in cool climates. PMID:12096740

  13. Geographic Distribution of Habitat, Development, and Population Growth Rates of the Asian Citrus Psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico

    PubMed Central

    López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J.; Robles-García, Pedro L.; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

    2013-01-01

    The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion. PMID:24735280

  14. Phenotypic plasticity in growth and fecundity induced by strong population fluctuations affects reproductive traits of female fish.

    PubMed

    Karjalainen, Juha; Urpanen, Olli; Keskinen, Tapio; Huuskonen, Hannu; Sarvala, Jouko; Valkeajärvi, Pentti; Marjomäki, Timo J

    2016-02-01

    Fish are known for their high phenotypic plasticity in life-history traits in relation to environmental variability, and this is particularly pronounced among salmonids in the Northern Hemisphere. Resource limitation leads to trade-offs in phenotypic plasticity between life-history traits related to the reproduction, growth, and survival of individual fish, which have consequences for the age and size distributions of populations, as well as their dynamics and productivity. We studied the effect of plasticity in growth and fecundity of vendace females on their reproductive traits using a series of long-term incubation experiments. The wild parental fish originated from four separate populations with markedly different densities, and hence naturally induced differences in their growth and fecundity. The energy allocation to somatic tissues and eggs prior to spawning served as a proxy for total resource availability to individual females, and its effects on offspring survival and growth were analyzed. Vendace females allocated a rather constant proportion of available energy to eggs (per body mass) despite different growth patterns depending on the total resources in the different lakes; investment into eggs thus dictated the share remaining for growth. The energy allocation to eggs per mass was higher in young than in old spawners and the egg size and the relative fecundity differed between them: Young females produced more and smaller eggs and larvae than old spawners. In contrast to earlier observations of salmonids, a shortage of maternal food resources did not increase offspring size and survival. Vendace females in sparse populations with ample resources and high growth produced larger eggs and larvae. Vendace accommodate strong population fluctuations by their high plasticity in growth and fecundity, which affect their offspring size and consequently their recruitment and productivity, and account for their persistence and resilience in the face of high fishing mortality. PMID:26865965

  15. Endless Urban Growth? On the Mismatch of Population, Household and Urban Land Area Growth and Its Effects on the Urban Debate

    PubMed Central

    Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

    2013-01-01

    In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these “double-declining” cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number “automatically” solve the global problem of land consumption. PMID:23840501

  16. Bioconvective patterns, synchrony, and survival. [in light-limited growth model of motile algae culture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noever, David A.

    1990-01-01

    With and without bioconvective pattern formation, a theoretical model predicts growth in light-limited cultures of motile algae. At the critical density for pattern formation, the resulting doubly exponential population curves show an inflection. Such growth corresponds quantitatively to experiments in mechanically unstirred cultures. This attaches survival value to synchronized pattern formation.

  17. Temperature effect on the build-up of exponentially growing polyelectrolyte multilayers. An exponential-to-linear transition point.

    PubMed

    Vikulina, Anna S; Anissimov, Yuri G; Singh, Prateek; Prokopović, Vladimir Z; Uhlig, Katja; Jaeger, Magnus S; von Klitzing, Regine; Duschl, Claus; Volodkin, Dmitry

    2016-03-01

    In this study, the effect of temperature on the build-up of exponentially growing polyelectrolyte multilayer films was investigated. It aims at understanding the multilayer growth mechanism as crucially important for the fabrication of tailor-made multilayer films. Model poly(l-lysine)/hyaluronic acid (PLL/HA) multilayers were assembled in the temperature range of 25-85 °C by layer-by-layer deposition using a dipping method. The film growth switches from the exponential to the linear regime at the transition point as a result of limited polymer diffusion into the film. With the increase of the build-up temperature the film growth rate is enhanced in both regimes; the position of the transition point shifts to a higher number of deposition steps confirming the diffusion-mediated growth mechanism. Not only the faster polymer diffusion into the film but also more porous/permeable film structure are responsible for faster film growth at higher preparation temperature. The latter mechanism is assumed from analysis of the film growth rate upon switching of the preparation temperature during the film growth. Interestingly, the as-prepared films are equilibrated and remain intact (no swelling or shrinking) during temperature variation in the range of 25-45 °C. The average activation energy for complexation between PLL and HA in the multilayers calculated from the Arrhenius plot has been found to be about 0.3 kJ mol(-1) for monomers of PLL. Finally, the following processes known to be dependent on temperature are discussed with respect to the multilayer growth: (i) polymer diffusion, (ii) polymer conformational changes, and (iii) inter-polymer interactions. PMID:26911320

  18. Noise further expresses exponential decay for globally exponentially stable time-varying delayed neural networks.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Song; Yang, Qiqi; Shen, Yi

    2016-05-01

    This paper shows that the globally exponentially stable neural network with time-varying delay and bounded noises may converge faster than those without noise. And the influence of noise on global exponential stability of DNNs was analyzed quantitatively. By comparing the upper bounds of noise intensity with coefficients of global exponential stability, we could deduce that noise is able to further express exponential decay for DNNs. The upper bounds of noise intensity are characterized by solving transcendental equations containing adjustable parameters. In addition, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the theoretical result. PMID:26907861

  19. Evolution of invasive traits in nonindigenous species: increased survival and faster growth in invasive populations of rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus)

    PubMed Central

    Sargent, Lindsey W; Lodge, David M

    2014-01-01

    The importance of evolution in enhancing the invasiveness of species is not well understood, especially in animals. To evaluate evolution in crayfish invasions, we tested for differences in growth rate, survival, and response to predators between native and invaded range populations of rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus). We hypothesized that low conspecific densities during introductions into lakes would select for increased investment in growth and reproduction in invasive populations. We reared crayfish from both ranges in common garden experiments in lakes and mesocosms, the latter in which we also included treatments of predatory fish presence and food quality. In both lake and mesocosm experiments, O. rusticus from invasive populations had significantly faster growth rates and higher survival than individuals from the native range, especially in mesocosms where fish were present. There was no influence of within-range collection location on growth rate. Egg size was similar between ranges and did not affect crayfish growth. Our results, therefore, suggest that growth rate, which previous work has shown contributes to strong community-level impacts of this invasive species, has diverged since O. rusticus was introduced to the invaded range. This result highlights the need to consider evolutionary dynamics in invasive species mitigation strategies. PMID:25469173

  20. Population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling of tumor growth kinetics in medullary thyroid cancer patients receiving cabozantinib.

    PubMed

    Miles, Dale R; Wada, David R; Jumbe, Nelson L; Lacy, Steven A; Nguyen, Linh T

    2016-04-01

    Nonlinear mixed effects models were developed to describe the relationship between cabozantinib exposure and target lesion tumor size in a phase III study of patients with progressive metastatic medullary thyroid cancer. These models used cabozantinib exposure estimates from a previously published population pharmacokinetic model for cabozantinib in cancer patients that was updated with data from healthy-volunteer studies. Semi-mechanistic models predict well for tumors with static, increasing, or decreasing growth over time, but they were not considered adequate for predicting tumor sizes in medullary thyroid cancer patients, among whom an early reduction in tumor size was followed by a late stabilization phase in those receiving cabozantinib. A semi-empirical tumor model adequately predicted tumor profiles that were assumed to have a net growth rate constant that was piecewise continuous in the regions of 0-110 and 110-280 days. Emax models relating average concentration to average change in tumor size predicted that an average concentration of 79 and 58 ng/ml, respectively, would yield 50% of the maximum possible tumor reduction during the first 110 days of dosing and during the subsequent 110-280 days of dosing. Simulations of tumor responses showed that daily doses of 60 mg or greater are expected to provide a similar tumor reduction. Both model evaluation of observed data and simulation results suggested that the two protocol-defined cabozantinib dose reductions from 140 to 100 mg/day and from 100 to 60 mg/day are not projected to result in a marked reduction in target lesion regrowth. PMID:26825867

  1. Genetic parameters for growth, reproductive and maternal traits in a multibreed meat sheep population

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    The genetic parameters for growth, reproductive and maternal traits in a multibreed meat sheep population were estimated by applying the Average Information Restricted Maximum Likelihood method to an animal model. Data from a flock supported by the Programa de Melhoramento Genético de Caprinos e Ovinos de Corte (GENECOC) were used. The traits studied included birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), slaughter weight (SW), yearling weight (YW), weight gain from birth to weaning (GBW), weight gain from weaning to slaughter (GWS), weight gain from weaning to yearling (GWY), age at first lambing (AFL), lambing interval (LI), gestation length (GL), lambing date (LD - number of days between the start of breeding season and lambing), litter weight at birth (LWB) and litter weight at weaning (LWW). The direct heritabilities were 0.35, 0.81, 0.65, 0.49, 0.20, 0.15 and 0.39 for BW, WW, SW, YW, GBW, GWS and GWY, respectively, and 0.04, 0.06, 0.10, 0.05, 0.15 and 0.11 for AFL, LI, GL, LD, LWB and LWW, respectively. Positive genetic correlations were observed among body weights. In contrast, there was a negative genetic correlation between GBW and GWS (-0.49) and GBW and GWY (-0.56). Positive genetic correlations were observed between AFL and LI, LI and GL, and LWB and LWW. These results indicate a strong maternal influence in this herd and the presence of sufficient genetic variation to allow mass selection for growth traits. Additive effects were of little importance for reproductive traits, and other strategies are necessary to improve the performance of these animals. PMID:21637451

  2. Genetic parameters for growth, reproductive and maternal traits in a multibreed meat sheep population.

    PubMed

    Lôbo, Ana Maria Bezerra Oliveira; Lôbo, Raimundo Nonato Braga; Paiva, Samuel Rezende; de Oliveira, Sônia Maria Pinheiro; Facó, Olivardo

    2009-10-01

    The genetic parameters for growth, reproductive and maternal traits in a multibreed meat sheep population were estimated by applying the Average Information Restricted Maximum Likelihood method to an animal model. Data from a flock supported by the Programa de Melhoramento Genético de Caprinos e Ovinos de Corte (GENECOC) were used. The traits studied included birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), slaughter weight (SW), yearling weight (YW), weight gain from birth to weaning (GBW), weight gain from weaning to slaughter (GWS), weight gain from weaning to yearling (GWY), age at first lambing (AFL), lambing interval (LI), gestation length (GL), lambing date (LD - number of days between the start of breeding season and lambing), litter weight at birth (LWB) and litter weight at weaning (LWW). The direct heritabilities were 0.35, 0.81, 0.65, 0.49, 0.20, 0.15 and 0.39 for BW, WW, SW, YW, GBW, GWS and GWY, respectively, and 0.04, 0.06, 0.10, 0.05, 0.15 and 0.11 for AFL, LI, GL, LD, LWB and LWW, respectively. Positive genetic correlations were observed among body weights. In contrast, there was a negative genetic correlation between GBW and GWS (-0.49) and GBW and GWY (-0.56). Positive genetic correlations were observed between AFL and LI, LI and GL, and LWB and LWW. These results indicate a strong maternal influence in this herd and the presence of sufficient genetic variation to allow mass selection for growth traits. Additive effects were of little importance for reproductive traits, and other strategies are necessary to improve the performance of these animals. PMID:21637451

  3. Power Policy 21 Century: Growth of the Population, Economics, Ecology and Entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prisniakov, Vladimir

    2002-01-01

    but energy consumed by a man will be a limiting factor. Obtained values of changing in the quantity of population as well as of the consumed fuel quantity in the 21 century have been analysed. The period was defined (2005-2085) when energy hungry is possible due to a higher rate of a human reproduction comparing to the rates of energy consumption. From new position, the laws of the Earth population growth are analysed, based on the equality of the quantity of dying people to the quantity of those bornyears ago, whereis life expectancy. investigated on the base of Second law of thermodynamics. The equation of money exchange dY = (V/p)dM in going from quantity real GNP Y to consumption fuel equivalent E=pd Y takes the form: dE =VdM. General correlation between S and M is proposed: dS = (HV/T)dM, where H is enthalpy; V is velocity of money; T is temperature; p is total prices,is capacity of manufacture resources. This equation shows direction of the spontaneity development of economical processes as part of general law Universe. The original equation of removing from information to matter equation enables to control output natural resources by economic laws, and to control of activities for the restoration wrecked nature.This equation shows the direction of the spontaneity development of economical processes as part of a general Universal law. into account value of expenditure on ecology as part of price and overstated price indexes. The criterions allow to discover numerical values of a stock of money, ecology part of price, velocity of money, value of the taxes, which ensure sustainable development. These equations enable to control output natural resources by economic laws, and to control activities for the restoration of wrecked nature.

  4. On pitfalls in the construction of family-based models of population growth: a note.

    PubMed

    Kondo, H

    1986-04-01

    Recently, several attempts have been made to construct an economic theory of population based on a formal theory of the family of the type developed by Becker in 1981, but there are serious limitations in all such efforts. The typical family's problem may have no solution, even with a well-behaved concave utility function. Moreover, even when the family's maximum problem has a unique solution, the phase diagram for the stock of capital may contain no steady state other than the origin. Finally, even when there exists a nontrivial steady state for the stock of capital, the community nevertheless may be destined for extinction. The first of these pitfalls concerns the internal consistency of the models, while the second and third concern the compatibility of the models with some gross facts of life. The pitfalls can be avoided, within the Becker framework by suitably restricting the family's utility and production functions, but the restrictions required are severe. This paper shows that, alternatively, the pitfalls sometimes can be avoided by going slightly outside the Becker framework, specifically, by modifying the typical family's budget constraint to allow explicitly for the cost of raising children. In particular, it is shown that, by this means, the pitfalls can be avoided even when the famil's utility function is log-linear, the example adduced by Kemp et al. In 1984 to demonstrate the existence of pitfalls. More precisely, it is shown that the family's maximum problem has a unique solution; that nontrival steady state exists; that, even if the steady state is locally unstable, the optimal trajectory tends neither to zero nor to infinity but to a 2-period limit cycle; and that survival is possible with quite general production functions. Thus, the end product is a logically consistent and reasonable model of economic development, with both population growth and capital accumulation firmly rooted in life-cycle family planning. PMID:12341103

  5. Phylogenetic stochastic mapping without matrix exponentiation.

    PubMed

    Irvahn, Jan; Minin, Vladimir N

    2014-09-01

    Phylogenetic stochastic mapping is a method for reconstructing the history of trait changes on a phylogenetic tree relating species/organism carrying the trait. State-of-the-art methods assume that the trait evolves according to a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) and works well for small state spaces. The computations slow down considerably for larger state spaces (e.g., space of codons), because current methodology relies on exponentiating CTMC infinitesimal rate matrices-an operation whose computational complexity grows as the size of the CTMC state space cubed. In this work, we introduce a new approach, based on a CTMC technique called uniformization, which does not use matrix exponentiation for phylogenetic stochastic mapping. Our method is based on a new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that targets the distribution of trait histories conditional on the trait data observed at the tips of the tree. The computational complexity of our MCMC method grows as the size of the CTMC state space squared. Moreover, in contrast to competing matrix exponentiation methods, if the rate matrix is sparse, we can leverage this sparsity and increase the computational efficiency of our algorithm further. Using simulated data, we illustrate advantages of our MCMC algorithm and investigate how large the state space needs to be for our method to outperform matrix exponentiation approaches. We show that even on the moderately large state space of codons our MCMC method can be significantly faster than currently used matrix exponentiation methods. PMID:24918812

  6. Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Without Matrix Exponentiation

    PubMed Central

    Irvahn, Jan; Minin, Vladimir N.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Phylogenetic stochastic mapping is a method for reconstructing the history of trait changes on a phylogenetic tree relating species/organism carrying the trait. State-of-the-art methods assume that the trait evolves according to a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) and works well for small state spaces. The computations slow down considerably for larger state spaces (e.g., space of codons), because current methodology relies on exponentiating CTMC infinitesimal rate matrices—an operation whose computational complexity grows as the size of the CTMC state space cubed. In this work, we introduce a new approach, based on a CTMC technique called uniformization, which does not use matrix exponentiation for phylogenetic stochastic mapping. Our method is based on a new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that targets the distribution of trait histories conditional on the trait data observed at the tips of the tree. The computational complexity of our MCMC method grows as the size of the CTMC state space squared. Moreover, in contrast to competing matrix exponentiation methods, if the rate matrix is sparse, we can leverage this sparsity and increase the computational efficiency of our algorithm further. Using simulated data, we illustrate advantages of our MCMC algorithm and investigate how large the state space needs to be for our method to outperform matrix exponentiation approaches. We show that even on the moderately large state space of codons our MCMC method can be significantly faster than currently used matrix exponentiation methods. PMID:24918812

  7. Method for exponentiating in cryptographic systems

    DOEpatents

    Brickell, Ernest F.; Gordon, Daniel M.; McCurley, Kevin S.

    1994-01-01

    An improved cryptographic method utilizing exponentiation is provided which has the advantage of reducing the number of multiplications required to determine the legitimacy of a message or user. The basic method comprises the steps of selecting a key from a preapproved group of integer keys g; exponentiating the key by an integer value e, where e represents a digital signature, to generate a value g.sup.e ; transmitting the value g.sup.e to a remote facility by a communications network; receiving the value g.sup.e at the remote facility; and verifying the digital signature as originating from the legitimate user. The exponentiating step comprises the steps of initializing a plurality of memory locations with a plurality of values g.sup.xi ; computi The United States Government has rights in this invention pursuant to Contract No. DE-AC04-76DP00789 between the Department of Energy and AT&T Company.

  8. Modeling aftershocks as a stretched exponential relaxation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mignan, A.

    2015-11-01

    The decay rate of aftershocks has been modeled as a power law since the pioneering work of Omori in the late nineteenth century. Although other expressions have been proposed in recent decades to describe the temporal behavior of aftershocks, the number of model comparisons remains limited. After reviewing the aftershock models published from the late nineteenth century until today, I solely compare the power law, pure exponential and stretched exponential expressions defined in their simplest forms. By applying statistical methods recommended recently in applied mathematics, I show that all aftershock sequences tested in three regional earthquake catalogs (Southern and Northern California, Taiwan) and with three declustering techniques (nearest-neighbor, second-order moment, window methods) follow a stretched exponential instead of a power law. These results infer that aftershocks are due to a simple relaxation process, in accordance with most other relaxation processes observed in Nature.

  9. Decoherence and Exponential Law: A Solvable Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pascazio, Saverio; Namiki, Mikio

    1996-01-01

    We analyze a modified version of the 'AgBr' Hamiltonian, solve exactly the equations of motion in terms of SU(2) coherent states, and study the weak-coupling, macroscopic limit of the model, obtaining an exponential behavior at all times. The asymptotic dominance of the exponential behavior is representative of a purely stochastic evolution and can be derived quantum mechanically in the so-called van Hove's limit (which is a weak-coupling, macroscopic limit). At the same time, a temporal behavior of the exponential type, yielding a 'probability dissipation' is closely related to dephasing ('decoherence') effects and one can expect a close connection with a dissipative and irreversible behavior. We stress the central relevance of the problem of dissipation to the quantum measurement theory and to the general topic of decoherence.

  10. Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

  11. Carbon isotope fractionation by thermophilic phototrophic sulfur bacteria: evidence for autotrophic growth in natural populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Madigan, M. T.; Takigiku, R.; Lee, R. G.; Gest, H.; Hayes, J. M.

    1989-01-01

    Purple phototrophic bacteria of the genus Chromatium can grow as either photoautotrophs or photoheterotrophs. To determine the growth mode of the thermophilic Chromatium species, Chromatium tepidum, under in situ conditions, we have examined the carbon isotope fractionation patterns in laboratory cultures of this organism and in mats of C. tepidum which develop in sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park. Isotopic analysis (13C/12C) of total carbon, carotenoid pigments, and bacteriochlorophyll from photoautotrophically grown cultures of C. tepidum yielded 13C fractionation factors near -20%. Cells of C. tepidum grown on excess acetate, wherein synthesis of the Calvin cycle enzyme ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase) was greatly repressed, were isotopically heavier, fractionation factors of ca. -7% being observed. Fractionation factors determined by isotopic analyses of cells and pigment fractions of natural populations of C. tepidum growing in three different sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park were approximately -20%, indicating that this purple sulfur bacterium grows as a photoautotroph in nature.

  12. Carbon isotope fractionation by thermophilic phototrophic sulfur bacteria: evidence for autotrophic growth in natural populations.

    PubMed

    Madigan, M T; Takigiku, R; Lee, R G; Gest, H; Hayes, J M

    1989-03-01

    Purple phototrophic bacteria of the genus Chromatium can grow as either photoautotrophs or photoheterotrophs. To determine the growth mode of the thermophilic Chromatium species, Chromatium tepidum, under in situ conditions, we have examined the carbon isotope fractionation patterns in laboratory cultures of this organism and in mats of C. tepidum which develop in sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park. Isotopic analysis (13C/12C) of total carbon, carotenoid pigments, and bacteriochlorophyll from photoautotrophically grown cultures of C. tepidum yielded 13C fractionation factors near -20%. Cells of C. tepidum grown on excess acetate, wherein synthesis of the Calvin cycle enzyme ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase) was greatly repressed, were isotopically heavier, fractionation factors of ca. -7% being observed. Fractionation factors determined by isotopic analyses of cells and pigment fractions of natural populations of C. tepidum growing in three different sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park were approximately -20%, indicating that this purple sulfur bacterium grows as a photoautotroph in nature. PMID:11536609