Science.gov

Sample records for exponential population growth

  1. Name: _____________________________________ Exponential Population Growth

    E-print Network

    Lega, Joceline

    Name: _____________________________________ Exponential Population Growth The equation for population growth is: N=S*t N is the new population; S is the starting population; is the growth rate on Hawaii in 24 months? Why or why not? 2) An endangered turtle species has a population growth rate of = 0

  2. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  3. Logistic Growth The logistic equation is a model of limited population growth. The exponential growth model

    E-print Network

    Ikenaga, Bruce

    9­28­1998 Logistic Growth The logistic equation is a model of limited population growth and K grow almost exponentially at first. Growth slows as N nears the limiting population K. As t !1, N, and the carrying capacity of the cabinet is K = 10000. The population reaches its maximum growth rate in 4 days

  4. Sustained exponential population growth of grey seals at Sable Island, Nova Scotia

    E-print Network

    Bowen, W. Don

    in pinnipeds and other marine mammals (e.g. northern elephant seals, Mirounga angustirostris, Stewart, 1992Sustained exponential population growth of grey seals at Sable Island, Nova Scotia W. D. Bowen, J growth of grey seals at Sable Island, Nova Scotia. e ICES Journal of Marine Science, 60: 1265e1274. Grey

  5. Lecture 14: Population growth. Exponential growth described by R0, and r

    E-print Network

    Creel, Scott

    , as shown by reindeer on Pribilof Islands for 30 years after introduction. Exponential growth occurs when not often occur (for long) in nature. But colonizations like the reindeer example, or recovery

  6. Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and intergenerational resource transfers to wider institutions and social networks. PMID:25141019

  7. Inference of Super-exponential Human Population Growth via Efficient Computation of the Site Frequency Spectrum for Generalized Models.

    PubMed

    Gao, Feng; Keinan, Alon

    2016-01-01

    The site frequency spectrum (SFS) and other genetic summary statistics are at the heart of many population genetic studies. Previous studies have shown that human populations have undergone a recent epoch of fast growth in effective population size. These studies assumed that growth is exponential, and the ensuing models leave an excess amount of extremely rare variants. This suggests that human populations might have experienced a recent growth with speed faster than exponential. Recent studies have introduced a generalized growth model where the growth speed can be faster or slower than exponential. However, only simulation approaches were available for obtaining summary statistics under such generalized models. In this study, we provide expressions to accurately and efficiently evaluate the SFS and other summary statistics under generalized models, which we further implement in a publicly available software. Investigating the power to infer deviation of growth from being exponential, we observed that adequate sample sizes facilitate accurate inference; e.g., a sample of 3000 individuals with the amount of data expected from exome sequencing allows observing and accurately estimating growth with speed deviating by ?10% from that of exponential. Applying our inference framework to data from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project, we found that a model with a generalized growth epoch fits the observed SFS significantly better than the equivalent model with exponential growth (P-value [Formula: see text]). The estimated growth speed significantly deviates from exponential (P-value [Formula: see text]), with the best-fit estimate being of growth speed 12% faster than exponential. PMID:26450922

  8. Inference of Super-exponential Human Population Growth via Efficient Computation of the Site Frequency Spectrum for Generalized Models

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Feng; Keinan, Alon

    2016-01-01

    The site frequency spectrum (SFS) and other genetic summary statistics are at the heart of many population genetic studies. Previous studies have shown that human populations have undergone a recent epoch of fast growth in effective population size. These studies assumed that growth is exponential, and the ensuing models leave an excess amount of extremely rare variants. This suggests that human populations might have experienced a recent growth with speed faster than exponential. Recent studies have introduced a generalized growth model where the growth speed can be faster or slower than exponential. However, only simulation approaches were available for obtaining summary statistics under such generalized models. In this study, we provide expressions to accurately and efficiently evaluate the SFS and other summary statistics under generalized models, which we further implement in a publicly available software. Investigating the power to infer deviation of growth from being exponential, we observed that adequate sample sizes facilitate accurate inference; e.g., a sample of 3000 individuals with the amount of data expected from exome sequencing allows observing and accurately estimating growth with speed deviating by ?10% from that of exponential. Applying our inference framework to data from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project, we found that a model with a generalized growth epoch fits the observed SFS significantly better than the equivalent model with exponential growth (P-value =3.85×10?6). The estimated growth speed significantly deviates from exponential (P-value ?10?12), with the best-fit estimate being of growth speed 12% faster than exponential. PMID:26450922

  9. Can the site-frequency spectrum distinguish exponential population growth from multiple-merger coalescents?

    PubMed

    Eldon, Bjarki; Birkner, Matthias; Blath, Jochen; Freund, Fabian

    2015-03-01

    The ability of the site-frequency spectrum (SFS) to reflect the particularities of gene genealogies exhibiting multiple mergers of ancestral lines as opposed to those obtained in the presence of population growth is our focus. An excess of singletons is a well-known characteristic of both population growth and multiple mergers. Other aspects of the SFS, in particular, the weight of the right tail, are, however, affected in specific ways by the two model classes. Using an approximate likelihood method and minimum-distance statistics, our estimates of statistical power indicate that exponential and algebraic growth can indeed be distinguished from multiple-merger coalescents, even for moderate sample sizes, if the number of segregating sites is high enough. A normalized version of the SFS (nSFS) is also used as a summary statistic in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The results give further positive evidence as to the general eligibility of the SFS to distinguish between the different histories. PMID:25575536

  10. HAS 222d-2009 Lecture 16 Exponential growth

    E-print Network

    and global population: exponential growth occurs when the growth is proportional to the population exponential growth, with a growth rate A: the population increases by a factor e in time 1/A. Any process like human population growing exponentially? #12;exponential growth? linear and semi-log plots of global

  11. Universality in stochastic exponential growth.

    PubMed

    Iyer-Biswas, Srividya; Crooks, Gavin E; Scherer, Norbert F; Dinner, Aaron R

    2014-07-11

    Recent imaging data for single bacterial cells reveal that their mean sizes grow exponentially in time and that their size distributions collapse to a single curve when rescaled by their means. An analogous result holds for the division-time distributions. A model is needed to delineate the minimal requirements for these scaling behaviors. We formulate a microscopic theory of stochastic exponential growth as a Master Equation that accounts for these observations, in contrast to existing quantitative models of stochastic exponential growth (e.g., the Black-Scholes equation or geometric Brownian motion). Our model, the stochastic Hinshelwood cycle (SHC), is an autocatalytic reaction cycle in which each molecular species catalyzes the production of the next. By finding exact analytical solutions to the SHC and the corresponding first passage time problem, we uncover universal signatures of fluctuations in exponential growth and division. The model makes minimal assumptions, and we describe how more complex reaction networks can reduce to such a cycle. We thus expect similar scalings to be discovered in stochastic processes resulting in exponential growth that appear in diverse contexts such as cosmology, finance, technology, and population growth. PMID:25062238

  12. Universality in Stochastic Exponential Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer-Biswas, Srividya; Crooks, Gavin E.; Scherer, Norbert F.; Dinner, Aaron R.

    2014-07-01

    Recent imaging data for single bacterial cells reveal that their mean sizes grow exponentially in time and that their size distributions collapse to a single curve when rescaled by their means. An analogous result holds for the division-time distributions. A model is needed to delineate the minimal requirements for these scaling behaviors. We formulate a microscopic theory of stochastic exponential growth as a Master Equation that accounts for these observations, in contrast to existing quantitative models of stochastic exponential growth (e.g., the Black-Scholes equation or geometric Brownian motion). Our model, the stochastic Hinshelwood cycle (SHC), is an autocatalytic reaction cycle in which each molecular species catalyzes the production of the next. By finding exact analytical solutions to the SHC and the corresponding first passage time problem, we uncover universal signatures of fluctuations in exponential growth and division. The model makes minimal assumptions, and we describe how more complex reaction networks can reduce to such a cycle. We thus expect similar scalings to be discovered in stochastic processes resulting in exponential growth that appear in diverse contexts such as cosmology, finance, technology, and population growth.

  13. A Simulation To Model Exponential Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Appelbaum, Elizabeth Berman

    2000-01-01

    Describes a simulation using dice-tossing students in a population cluster to model the growth of cancer cells. This growth is recorded in a scatterplot and compared to an exponential function graph. (KHR)

  14. How well can the exponential-growth coalescent approximate constant-rate birth-death population dynamics?

    PubMed

    Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G; Gavryushkin, Alex; Guindon, Stephane; Kühnert, Denise; Leventhal, Gabriel E; Drummond, Alexei J

    2015-05-01

    One of the central objectives in the field of phylodynamics is the quantification of population dynamic processes using genetic sequence data or in some cases phenotypic data. Phylodynamics has been successfully applied to many different processes, such as the spread of infectious diseases, within-host evolution of a pathogen, macroevolution and even language evolution. Phylodynamic analysis requires a probability distribution on phylogenetic trees spanned by the genetic data. Because such a probability distribution is not available for many common stochastic population dynamic processes, coalescent-based approximations assuming deterministic population size changes are widely employed. Key to many population dynamic models, in particular epidemiological models, is a period of exponential population growth during the initial phase. Here, we show that the coalescent does not well approximate stochastic exponential population growth, which is typically modelled by a birth-death process. We demonstrate that introducing demographic stochasticity into the population size function of the coalescent improves the approximation for values of R0 close to 1, but substantial differences remain for large R0. In addition, the computational advantage of using an approximation over exact models vanishes when introducing such demographic stochasticity. These results highlight that we need to increase efforts to develop phylodynamic tools that correctly account for the stochasticity of population dynamic models for inference. PMID:25876846

  15. Simulating Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  16. Evidence for super-exponentially accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide growth

    E-print Network

    Hüsler, Andreas D

    2011-01-01

    We analyze the growth rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide and human population, by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model. Our empirical calibrations confirm that human population has decelerated from its previous super-exponential growth until 1960 to ``just' an exponential growth, but with no sign of more deceleration. As for atmospheric CO2 content, we find that it is at least exponentially increasing and most likely characterized by an accelerating growth rate as off 2009, consistent with an unsustainable FTS power law regime announcing a drastic change of regime. The coexistence of a quasi-exponential growth of human population with a super-exponential growth of carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere is a diagnostic of insignificant impr...

  17. A Simple Mechanical Experiment on Exponential Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrew, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    With a rod, cord, pulleys, and slotted masses, students can observe and graph exponential growth in the cord tension over a factor of increase as large as several hundred. This experiment is adaptable for use either in algebra-based or calculus-based physics courses, fitting naturally with the study of sliding friction. Significant parts of the…

  18. Population growth.

    PubMed

    1984-01-01

    Despite efforts to reduce population growth, the World Bank projects a world population of 10 billion by 2050, with 7 billion living in developing countries. From October 1979 to September 1984, the US Agency for International Development (AID) funded the Research Triangle Institute's (RTI) Integrated Population and Development Planning (IPDP) project to assess rapid population growth effects in 25 developing countries. In October 1984, US AID extended funding for the program, nicknamed INPLAN, for 3 years, at a cost of $6.3 million. Up to 50% of people in developing countries are under age 15, a fact that guarantees large population increases for the next 50-75 years. Also, many regions have been slow to correlate high fertility with socioeconomic development, and in some areas, fertility is actually increasing. INPLAN aims to make governments more aware of population dynamics and to provide training and tools for effective development planning. 40% of INPLAN's work will be done in Africa, 25% in Latin America, and 20% in Asia, with some activity in the Near East. One project in Egypt, involving the use of model generation by microcomputer, was developed by RTI to show rural to urban migration and rapid population growth affects on the educational system. INPLAN expects to develop several other planning sector models on labor force and employment, health and family planning, food supply, housing, and urban development, and apply them to 20-25 countries. Another project provided 9 microcomputer systems and training to Nigerian government agencies. IMPLAN will purchase and distribute 60 such systems in the future. PMID:12314095

  19. Some population growth model Keny Chatain

    E-print Network

    Wohrer, Adrien

    Some population growth model Keny Chatain 15 f´evrier 2015 In this project, we studied various implementations of population growth models. After considering a model in which population growth is proportional to depend on population size. 1 An exponential growth model Here, we suppose that population size

  20. Black Hole Instabilities and Exponential Growth

    E-print Network

    Kartik Prabhu; Robert M. Wald

    2015-08-26

    Recently, a general analysis has been given of the stability with respect to axisymmetric perturbations of stationary-axisymmetric black holes and black branes in vacuum general relativity in arbitrary dimensions. It was shown that positivity of canonical energy on an appropriate space of perturbations is necessary and sufficient for stability. However, the notions of both "stability" and "instability" in this result are significantly weaker than one would like to obtain. In this paper, we prove that if a perturbation of the form $\\pounds_t \\delta g$---with $\\delta g$ a solution to the linearized Einstein equation---has negative canonical energy, then that perturbation must, in fact, grow exponentially in time. The key idea is to make use of the $t$- or ($t$-$\\phi$)-reflection isometry, $i$, of the background spacetime and decompose the initial data for perturbations into their odd and even parts under $i$. We then write the canonical energy as $\\mathscr E\\ = \\mathscr K + \\mathscr U$, where $\\mathscr K$ and $\\mathscr U$, respectively, denote the canonical energy of the odd part (kinetic energy) and even part (potential energy). One of the main results of this paper is the proof that $\\mathscr K$ is positive definite for any black hole background. We use $\\mathscr K$ to construct a Hilbert space $\\mathscr H$ on which time evolution is given in terms of a self-adjoint operator $\\tilde {\\mathcal A}$, whose spectrum includes negative values if and only if $\\mathscr U$ fails to be positive. Negative spectrum of $\\tilde{\\mathcal A}$ implies exponential growth of the perturbations in $\\mathscr H$ that have nontrivial projection into the negative spectral subspace. This includes all perturbations of the form $\\pounds_t \\delta g$ with negative canonical energy. A "Rayleigh-Ritz" type of variational principle is derived, which can be used to obtain lower bounds on the rate of exponential growth.

  1. Black Hole Instabilities and Exponential Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prabhu, Kartik; Wald, Robert M.

    2015-11-01

    Recently, a general analysis has been given of the stability with respect to axisymmetric perturbations of stationary-axisymmetric black holes and black branes in vacuum general relativity in arbitrary dimensions. It was shown that positivity of canonical energy on an appropriate space of perturbations is necessary and sufficient for stability. However, the notions of both "stability" and "instability" in this result are significantly weaker than one would like to obtain. In particular, if there exists a perturbation with negative canonical energy, "instability" has been shown to occur only in the sense that this perturbation cannot asymptotically approach a stationary perturbation at late times. In this paper, we prove that if a perturbation of the form —with a solution to the linearized Einstein equation—has negative canonical energy, then that perturbation must, in fact, grow exponentially in time. The key idea is to make use of the t- or ( t-?)-reflection isometry, i, of the background spacetime and decompose the initial data for perturbations into their odd and even parts under i. We then write the canonical energy as , where and , respectively, denote the canonical energy of the odd part ("kinetic energy") and even part ("potential energy"). One of the main results of this paper is the proof that is positive definite for any black hole background. We use to construct a Hilbert space on which time evolution is given in terms of a self-adjoint operator , whose spectrum includes negative values if and only if fails to be positive. Negative spectrum of implies exponential growth of the perturbations in that have nontrivial projection into the negative spectral subspace. This includes all perturbations of the form with negative canonical energy. A "Rayleigh-Ritz" type of variational principle is derived, which can be used to obtain lower bounds on the rate of exponential growth.

  2. Power-Law Exponent for Exponential Growth Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Li-Na; Chen, Bin; Zang, Chen-Rui

    2012-08-01

    The question of the power-law exponent of exponential growth networks is studied here. In a discrete case, the degree distribution is defined as the probability distribution of the discrete variable. Based on this, the degree distribution of the pseudofractal scale-free web, an exponential growth network, is obtained. The power-law exponent ln3/ln2 is analyzed according to the maximum likelihood principle. It satisfies consistency and is good for small generations of the network. For many exponential growth networks, their power-law exponent needs to be tested. The work provides a new view on the power-law exponent of an exponential growth network.

  3. Mutant number distribution in an exponentially growing population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Peter; Antal, Tibor

    2015-01-01

    We present an explicit solution to a classic model of cell-population growth introduced by Luria and Delbrück (1943 Genetics 28 491-511) 70 years ago to study the emergence of mutations in bacterial populations. In this model a wild-type population is assumed to grow exponentially in a deterministic fashion. Proportional to the wild-type population size, mutants arrive randomly and initiate new sub-populations of mutants that grow stochastically according to a supercritical birth and death process. We give an exact expression for the generating function of the total number of mutants at a given wild-type population size. We present a simple expression for the probability of finding no mutants, and a recursion formula for the probability of finding a given number of mutants. In the ‘large population-small mutation’ limit we recover recent results of Kessler and Levine (2014 J. Stat. Phys. doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1143-3) for a fully stochastic version of the process.

  4. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  5. Exponential growth of bacteria: Constant multiplication through division

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagen, Stephen J.

    2010-12-01

    The growth of a bacterial culture is one of the most familiar examples of exponential growth, with important consequences in biology and medicine. Bacterial growth involves more than just a rate constant. To sustain exponential growth, the cell must carefully coordinate the accumulation of mass, constant replication of the chromosome, and physical division. Hence, the growth rate is centrally important in any physical and chemical description of a bacterial cell. These aspects of bacterial growth can be described by empirical laws that suggest simple and intuitive models. Therefore, a quantitative discussion of bacterial growth could be a part of any undergraduate biophysics course. We present a general overview of some classic experimental studies and mathematical models of bacterial growth from a mostly physical perspective.

  6. Population Growth Makes Waves in the Distribution of Pairwise Genetic Differences '

    E-print Network

    Rogers, Alan R.

    Population Growth Makes Waves in the Distribution of Pairwise Genetic Differences ' Alan R. Rogers, Pennsylvania State University Episodes of population growth and decline leave characteristic signatures exponential growth are indistinguishable from those of a sudden burst of population growth. Bottlenecks

  7. Teaching Exponential Growth and Decay: Examples from Medicine

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobbie, Russell K.

    1973-01-01

    A treatment of exponential growth and decay is sketched which does not require knowledge of calculus, and hence, it can be applied to many cases in the biological and medical sciences. Some examples are bacterial growth, sterilization, clearance, and drug absorption. (DF)

  8. Exponential order statistic models of software reliability growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, D. R.

    1985-01-01

    Failure times of a software reliabilty growth process are modeled as order statistics of independent, nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. The Jelinsky-Moranda, Goel-Okumoto, Littlewood, Musa-Okumoto Logarithmic, and Power Law models are all special cases of Exponential Order Statistic Models, but there are many additional examples also. Various characterizations, properties and examples of this class of models are developed and presented.

  9. Population Growth Change Population Size or Density

    E-print Network

    Caraco, Thomas

    1 Population Growth Change Population Size or Density Model Measurable Quantity (Observable Unbounded Growth Useful: Small Population Ecological Invasion, Dynamics of Rarity #12;8 2. b ) Estimate Population Size: N Consider Single Population Assume Identical Individuals 1. Plants, Sessile

  10. UNIFORM EXPONENTIAL GROWTH FOR SOME SL(2, R) MATRIX PRODUCTS

    E-print Network

    Avila, Artur

    UNIFORM EXPONENTIAL GROWTH FOR SOME SL(2, R) MATRIX PRODUCTS ARTUR AVILA AND THOMAS ROBLIN Abstract.A. served as a Clay Research Fellow. 1 hal-00365299,version1-2Mar2009 #12;2 ARTUR AVILA AND THOMAS ROBLIN

  11. Exponential growth combined with exponential decline explains lifetime performance evolution in individual and human species.

    PubMed

    Berthelot, Geoffroy; Len, Stéphane; Hellard, Philippe; Tafflet, Muriel; Guillaume, Marion; Vollmer, Jean-Claude; Gager, Bruno; Quinquis, Laurent; Marc, Andy; Toussaint, Jean-François

    2012-08-01

    The physiological parameters characterizing human capacities (the ability to move, reproduce or perform tasks) evolve with ageing: performance is limited at birth, increases to a maximum and then decreases back to zero at the day of death. Physical and intellectual skills follow such a pattern. Here, we investigate the development of sport and chess performances during the lifetime at two different scales: the individual athletes' careers and the world record by age class in 25 Olympic sports events and in grandmaster chess players. For all data sets, a biphasic development of growth and decline is described by a simple model that accounts for 91.7% of the variance at the individual level and 98.5% of the variance at the species one. The age of performance peak is computed at 26.1 years old for the events studied (26.0 years old for track and field, 21.0 years old for swimming and 31.4 years old for chess). The two processes (growth and decline) are exponential and start at age zero. Both were previously demonstrated to happen in other human and non-human biological functions that evolve with age. They occur at the individual and species levels with a similar pattern, suggesting a scale invariance property. PMID:21695422

  12. Iterative exponential growth of stereo- and sequence-controlled polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, Jonathan C.; Ehrlich, Deborah J. C.; Gao, Angela X.; Leibfarth, Frank A.; Jiang, Yivan; Zhou, Erica; Jamison, Timothy F.; Johnson, Jeremiah A.

    2015-10-01

    Chemists have long sought sequence-controlled synthetic polymers that mimic nature's biopolymers, but a practical synthetic route that enables absolute control over polymer sequence and structure remains a key challenge. Here, we report an iterative exponential growth plus side-chain functionalization (IEG+) strategy that begins with enantiopure epoxides and facilitates the efficient synthesis of a family of uniform >3?kDa macromolecules of varying sequence and stereoconfiguration that are coupled to produce unimolecular polymers (>6?kDa) with sequences and structures that cannot be obtained using traditional polymerization techniques. Selective side-chain deprotection of three hexadecamers is also demonstrated, which imbues each compound with the ability to dissolve in water. We anticipate that these new macromolecules and the general IEG+ strategy will find broad application as a versatile platform for the scalable synthesis of sequence-controlled polymers.

  13. Population Growth: Crisis and Challenge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beaton, John R., Ed.; Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.

    The proceedings of this first annual symposium on population growth considers the consequences of this growth, along with possible means of regulation. Topics of speeches include: Population Outlook in Asia (Irene Taeuber); Malnutrition is a Problem of Ecology (Paul Gyorgy); The Leisure Explosion (E. H. Storey); Effects of Pollution on Population

  14. A one dimensional model of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano L.; Ribeiro, Kayo N.

    2015-09-01

    In this work, a one dimensional population growth model is proposed. The model, based on the cooperative and competitive individual-individual distance-dependent interaction, allows us to get a full analytical solution. With this analytical approach, it was possible to investigate the dynamics of the population according to some parameters, as intrinsic growth rate, strength of the interaction between individuals, and the distance-dependent interaction. As a consequence of the individuals' interaction, a rich phase diagram to which the population has access was observed. The phases observed are: convergence to carrying capacity, exponential growth, divergence at finite time, and extinction. Moreover, it was also observed that some phases are strictly dependent on the initial condition. For instance, in the cooperative regime with negative intrinsic growth rate, the population can diverge or become extinct according to the initial population size. The phases accessible to the population can be seen as a macroscopic behavior which emerges from the interaction among the individuals (the microscopic level).

  15. Exponential growth of publications on carbon nanodots by Chinese authors

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Junqing; Choi, Hak Soo

    2015-01-01

    Publication statistics was retrieved on carbon nanodots (C-dots) from 2004 up till 2014 using the web of ScienceTM search engine. The number of publications from Chinese authors increased exponentially during this period. Till 2014 China mainland authors contributed 47% of the total publications. Publications on pharmacology and toxicology lagged far behind the publications on chemistry and material science, indicating that research is not solidly moving toward the direction of application. PMID:26380753

  16. Numerical studies of strongly correlated systems: beating the exponential growth in computation time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, Steven

    2014-03-01

    In simulating strongly correlated systems, where approximate approaches based on small parameters are unreliable, the key problem is the exponential growth in computation time with system size, inverse temperature, or accuracy. For example, in exact diagonalization methods, the size of the vector describing the wavefunction has a length which is exponential in the number of sites. Progress in simulation methods has often involved removing this exponential for a certain class of problems. In quantum Monte Carlo, for example, for unfrustrated, half-filled Hubbard or Heisenberg models, the lack of a fermion sign problem eliminates the exponential, and large systems can be studied with high accuracy. In contrast, for most frustrated or doped systems, the expectation value of the sign falls exponentially and thus the computation time grows exponentially with the system size. The density matrix renormalization group eliminates the exponential for 1D systems. In this approach, the low entanglement of many-body ground states is exploited in a systematically improvable matrix product description of the wavefunction. For 2D systems, one is again faced with an exponential growth, but in a weaker form: an exponential of the width only, not the length. This weaker exponential has made DMRG the current method of choice for many 2D systems with a sign problem. Recently, the first approaches which appear to eliminate the exponential much more broadly have appeared, based on tensor networks such as projected entangled pair states (PEPS), which are closely related to DMRG. These methods also exploit the relatively low entanglement of ground states of realistic Hamiltonians. The computation time of these approaches, while non-exponential, is still quite high. Nevertheless, practical calculations with these methods are now becoming as good as DMRG and other approaches for 2D systems, and the methods are improving at a rapid rate.

  17. The role of multiple modeling perspectives in students' learning of exponential growth.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Garsow, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    The exponential is among the most important family functions in mathematics; the foundation for the solution of linear differential equations, linear difference equations, and stochastic processes. However there is little research and superficial agreement on how the concepts of exponential growth are learned and/or should be taught initially. In order to investigate these issues, I preformed a teaching experiment with two high school students, which focused on building understandings of exponential growth leading up to the (nonlinear) logistic differential equation model. In this paper, I highlight some of the ways of thinking used by participants in this teaching experiment. From these results I discuss how mathematicians using exponential growth routinely make use of multiple--sometimes contradictory--ways of thinking, as well as the danger that these multiple ways of thinking are not being made distinct to students. PMID:24245624

  18. HHOOWW MMAANNYY PPEEOOPPLLEE AARREE IINN YYOOUURR FFUUTTUURREE?? ELEMENTARY MODELS OF POPULATION GROWTH

    E-print Network

    Ashline, George

    think this is a realistic model of the future? Who would predict such population growth and on what that he based his vision of the future on an exponential model of human population growth. ThroughoutHHOOWW MMAANNYY PPEEOOPPLLEE AARREE IINN YYOOUURR FFUUTTUURREE?? ELEMENTARY MODELS OF POPULATION

  19. Weak extinction versus global exponential growth of total mass for superdiffusions

    E-print Network

    Song, Renming

    Weak extinction versus global exponential growth of total mass for superdiffusions J´anos Engl of local growth when it is positive, and implies local extinction otherwise. It is easy to show that 2 a sufficient and necessary condition for the superdiffusion X to exhibit weak extinction. We show

  20. [Population ethics and growth].

    PubMed

    Boim, D

    1988-01-01

    In order to formulate and implement a national demographic policy, various areas of science are called upon; however, since human lives are involved, ethical aspects play an important role not only in broad ideological terms, e.g, concerning overpopulation, but whenever practical decisions affecting technology and human resources are made. The article describes how the Catholic Church proposes certain "utopian" views or interpretations as part of an ethical "dynamism" and plurality needed when addressing the problem of overpopulation. 3 main starting point are defined for the determination of a population ethic: 1) ethics defined in terms of "nature," 2) in terms of the "human person," and 3) in terms of social "dialectic" involvement. The first point stresses the natural order of things as prescribed by God and impugns any birth control method; however, so-called natural birth control methods are allowed. The second point suggests that the human person is ethically center stage, a modernized position taken by the Church in tune with social realities and man's inherent intelligence. The primacy of live and responsibility is stressed as opposed to mere biological processes. Following this view, use of contraceptive, and even sterilization is allowed; however, abortion is excluded, since it means the elimination of a human life. The problem of overpopulation should be solved within the individual or micro-social context. The third point holds that it would be extremely myopic to reduce the position of the Church to advocating exclusively natural birth control methods while excluding social involvement. A "cosmic" view of faith would end putting material well-being before individual personal lives, would alert against egoism disguised as quality of life enhancement, and ultimately result in socially responsible fertility. In conclusion, the Church acknowledges that its contribution to the question of population ethics occurs in a pluralistic society that does not necessarily accept its opinions and proposals; however, the Church understands its contribution as a defense and not an imposition of its convictions. It considers it an obligation to accuse, criticize, and propose. PMID:12286718

  1. Population Growth: Family Planning Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.; Taylor, N. Burwell G., Ed.

    These proceedings of the second annual symposium on population growth bring together speeches and panel discussions on family planning programs. Titles of speeches delivered are: Communicating Family Planning (Mrs. Jean Hutchinson); Effects of New York's Abortion Law Change (Dr. Walter Rogers); The Law and Birth Control, Sterilization and Abortion…

  2. Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Alan

    1973-01-01

    Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly…

  3. Line transect estimation of population size: the exponential case with grouped data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Crain, B.R.

    1979-01-01

    Gates, Marshall, and Olson (1968) investigated the line transect method of estimating grouse population densities in the case where sighting probabilities are exponential. This work is followed by a simulation study in Gates (1969). A general overview of line transect analysis is presented by Burnham and Anderson (1976). These articles all deal with the ungrouped data case. In the present article, an analysis of line transect data is formulated under the Gates framework of exponential sighting probabilities and in the context of grouped data.

  4. MPS views on population growth.

    PubMed

    1997-09-01

    This article features the different views of Parliament members concerning the need in the reduction of population growth for development sustenance. Population growth would lead to environmental degradation, malnutrition, diseases, and high incidence of poverty. Furthermore, social problems arise like teenage pregnancies, and abuse of young girls. Suggestions on curtailing this problem as suggested by some of the parliament members includes educating people on issues of migration, family planning and reproductive health. Other members suggested on family planning legislation, like in the case of China where population explosion exists. Further, members thought that advocacy for population control such as condom usage targeting to couples having large families should be catered. However, this was denounced by some members as a failure and should not be sanctioned at large family couples but rather to husband with several wives. Finally, a compromised view was directed on population management with poverty alleviation involving the provision of amenities such as water, electricity, good roads, potable water, and income generating activities. PMID:12295517

  5. Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.

    This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women"; "World Health"; and "Environmental Relationships." Charts and graphs…

  6. Rapid growth of seed black holes in the early universe by supra-exponential accretion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, Tal; Natarajan, Priyamvada

    2014-09-01

    Mass accretion by black holes (BHs) is typically capped at the Eddington rate, when radiation's push balances gravity's pull. However, even exponential growth at the Eddington-limited e-folding time tE ~ few × 0.01 billion years is too slow to grow stellar-mass BH seeds into the supermassive luminous quasars that are observed when the universe is 1 billion years old. We propose a dynamical mechanism that can trigger supra-exponential accretion in the early universe, when a BH seed is bound in a star cluster fed by the ubiquitous dense cold gas flows. The high gas opacity traps the accretion radiation, while the low-mass BH's random motions suppress the formation of a slowly draining accretion disk. Supra-exponential growth can thus explain the puzzling emergence of supermassive BHs that power luminous quasars so soon after the Big Bang.

  7. Rapid growth of seed black holes in the early universe by supra-exponential accretion.

    PubMed

    Alexander, Tal; Natarajan, Priyamvada

    2014-09-12

    Mass accretion by black holes (BHs) is typically capped at the Eddington rate, when radiation's push balances gravity's pull. However, even exponential growth at the Eddington-limited e-folding time t(E) ~ few × 0.01 billion years is too slow to grow stellar-mass BH seeds into the supermassive luminous quasars that are observed when the universe is 1 billion years old. We propose a dynamical mechanism that can trigger supra-exponential accretion in the early universe, when a BH seed is bound in a star cluster fed by the ubiquitous dense cold gas flows. The high gas opacity traps the accretion radiation, while the low-mass BH's random motions suppress the formation of a slowly draining accretion disk. Supra-exponential growth can thus explain the puzzling emergence of supermassive BHs that power luminous quasars so soon after the Big Bang. PMID:25103410

  8. Rapid growth of seed black holes in the early universe by supra-exponential accretion

    E-print Network

    Alexander, Tal

    2014-01-01

    Mass accretion by black holes (BHs) is typically capped at the Eddington rate, when radiation's push balances gravity's pull. However, even exponential growth at the Eddington-limited e-folding time t_E ~ few x 0.01 Gyr, is too slow to grow stellar-mass BH seeds into the supermassive luminous quasars that are observed when the universe is 1 Gyr old. We propose a dynamical mechanism that can trigger supra-exponential accretion in the early universe, when a BH seed is trapped in a star cluster fed by the ubiquitous dense cold gas flows. The high gas opacity traps the accretion radiation, while the low-mass BH's random motions suppress the formation of a slowly-draining accretion disk. Supra-exponential growth can thus explain the puzzling emergence of supermassive BHs that power luminous quasars so soon after the Big Bang.

  9. Environmental impact of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  10. Exponential Growth and the Shifting Global Center of Gravity of Science Production, 1900-2011

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Liang; Powell, Justin J. W.; Baker, David P.

    2015-01-01

    Long historical trends in scientific discovery led mid-20th century scientometricians to mark the advent of "big science"--extensive science production--and predicted that over the next few decades, the exponential growth would slow, resulting in lower rates of increase in production at the upper limit of a logistic curve. They were…

  11. Estimation of population growth or decline in genetically monitored populations.

    PubMed Central

    Beaumont, Mark A

    2003-01-01

    This article introduces a new general method for genealogical inference that samples independent genealogical histories using importance sampling (IS) and then samples other parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It is then possible to more easily utilize the advantages of importance sampling in a fully Bayesian framework. The method is applied to the problem of estimating recent changes in effective population size from temporally spaced gene frequency data. The method gives the posterior distribution of effective population size at the time of the oldest sample and at the time of the most recent sample, assuming a model of exponential growth or decline during the interval. The effect of changes in number of alleles, number of loci, and sample size on the accuracy of the method is described using test simulations, and it is concluded that these have an approximately equivalent effect. The method is used on three example data sets and problems in interpreting the posterior densities are highlighted and discussed. PMID:12871921

  12. Exponential growth of ``snow molds'' at sub-zero temperatures: an explanation for high beneath-snow

    E-print Network

    Colorado at Boulder, University of

    Exponential growth of ``snow molds'' at sub-zero temperatures: an explanation for high beneath organisms of the beneath-snow microbial community, ``snow molds'', exhibit robust exponential growth to -0.3°C for these snow molds vary from 22 to 330. Third, we derive an analytical equation

  13. STOCHASTIC POPULATION GROWTH IN SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENTS

    E-print Network

    McAuliffe, Jon

    STOCHASTIC POPULATION GROWTH IN SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENTS STEVEN N. EVANS, PETER L, a simple model of population growth is a continuous time Markov process Zt, t 0, where the conditional law t is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate limt t-1 log Zt for such a population equals µ - 2 2 . Most

  14. Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

    E-print Network

    Channon, Alastair

    .j.aston@keele.ac.uk Introduction Small populations frequently exist in nature. Some animal species can exist in populations of only is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic

  15. The communalisation of population growth.

    PubMed

    Rao, M

    1993-02-01

    It is politically dangerous to attribute birth rates to religion. Some propaganda proposes the following myths: that Hindus have only 1 wife and Muslims many; that Islam forbids family planning and Hinduism does not; that Muslims have a higher birth rate; and that there will be more Muslims in India soon. Statistical evidence is supplied to refute these claims. In fact, the rate of polygynous marriage is 5.80% among Hindus and 5.73% among Muslims, which means Muslims have a lower incidence. Islam "fatwas" allow temporary methods of contraception, but forbids abortions and sterilizations. Contraceptive use in Muslim countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Indonesia is generally high. Fertility when cross-classified by religion and urban and rural residence or by monthly expenditures per capita shows that religion is not the significant variable. Socioeconomic factors do affect fertility, but there is a mix of socioeconomic groups among both Hindus and Muslims. Indian population growth projections indicate that Hindus will outnumber Muslims. Fertility decline has been significant in both urban and rural Muslim communities. A comparison of the Malabar region of Kerala and Uttar Pradesh shows Malabar with a 40% Muslim population and a lower birth rate than Uttar Pradesh with a 15% Muslim population. The conclusion is that the evidence does not support the myths; religion is not a primary determining factor. PMID:12286353

  16. Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-Exponential Growth

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Wanfeng; van Tuyll van Serooskerken, Edgar

    2015-01-01

    Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and are normally followed by a trend reversal that corrects the previous overreaction. In this paper, we construct an indicator to measure the magnitude of the super-exponential growth of stock prices, by measuring the degree of the price network, generated from the price time series. Twelve major international stock indices have been investigated. Error diagram tests show that this new indicator has strong predictive power for financial extremes, both peaks and troughs. By varying the parameters used to construct the error diagram, we show the predictive power is very robust. The new indicator has a better performance than the LPPL pattern recognition indicator. PMID:26339793

  17. Population growth rates: issues and an application.

    PubMed Central

    Godfray, H Charles J; Rees, Mark

    2002-01-01

    Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering. PMID:12396521

  18. Comparing growth patterns among field populations of cereal aphids reveals factors

    E-print Network

    Kratochvíl, Lukas

    Comparing growth patterns among field populations of cereal aphids reveals factors limiting species of aphids that may become serious pests. With increasing abundance, the proportion of a particular species in the total aphid population may remain constant, suggesting a density-independent exponential

  19. INVESTIGATION Population Growth Enhances the Mean Fixation

    E-print Network

    Waxman, David

    INVESTIGATION Population Growth Enhances the Mean Fixation Time of Neutral Mutations of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of 4Ne generations, where Ne is the effective population size

  20. An integrated model for predictive microbiology and simultaneous determination of lag phase duration and exponential growth rate

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A new mechanistic growth model was developed to describe microbial growth under isothermal conditions. The development of the mathematical model was based on the fundamental phenomenon of microbial growth, which is normally a three-stage process that includes lag, exponential, and stationary phases...

  1. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  2. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  3. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Adair

    2009-01-01

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East. PMID:19770149

  4. Fertility decline and population growth: China's dilemma.

    PubMed

    Gu, B

    1996-02-01

    This article includes the assertion by the deputy director and demographer of the China Information and Research Center that China must maintain and implement a strict population policy in order to feed its large population. China has 22% of the world's total population but only 7% of the world's total cultivated land. The population rate varies by province and region in China and ranges from replacement level fertility in Shanghai to high growth in remote and underdeveloped provinces. About 70 million people live under the poverty line or have an annual family income of under 500 yuan. The family planning programs should emphasize a service oriented approach. The increased power of women and improved educational status of women are also desired. Concern is recognized in government circles about the rapid aging of the population. Rural-urban migration has improved the economic climate in cities, but migration has also resulted in "some serious social problems." China has a low fertility level but rapid population growth. In the 1990s about 21 million babies were born, which is a net increase of about 14 million annually. Population growth is serious because of a strong population momentum from the previous baby boom of the 1960s. China has accomplished a great deal in a short period of time in reducing fertility under unfavorable socioeconomic conditions. Credit must be given to the Chinese government, its various departments, and public response. Present population is over 1.2 billion, which is higher than the total population of developed countries of the world. PMID:12291335

  5. Metabolic Flux Analysis during the Exponential Growth Phase of Saccharomyces cerevisiae in Wine Fermentations

    PubMed Central

    Quirós, Manuel; Martínez-Moreno, Rubén; Albiol, Joan; Morales, Pilar; Vázquez-Lima, Felícitas; Barreiro-Vázquez, Antonio; Ferrer, Pau; Gonzalez, Ramon

    2013-01-01

    As a consequence of the increase in global average temperature, grapes with the adequate phenolic and aromatic maturity tend to be overripe by the time of harvest, resulting in increased sugar concentrations and imbalanced C/N ratios in fermenting musts. This fact sets obvious additional hurdles in the challenge of obtaining wines with reduced alcohols levels, a new trend in consumer demands. It would therefore be interesting to understand Saccharomyces cerevisiae physiology during the fermentation of must with these altered characteristics. The present study aims to determine the distribution of metabolic fluxes during the yeast exponential growth phase, when both carbon and nitrogen sources are in excess, using continuous cultures. Two different sugar concentrations were studied under two different winemaking temperature conditions. Although consumption and production rates for key metabolites were severely affected by the different experimental conditions studied, the general distribution of fluxes in central carbon metabolism was basically conserved in all cases. It was also observed that temperature and sugar concentration exerted a higher effect on the pentose phosphate pathway and glycerol formation than on glycolysis and ethanol production. Additionally, nitrogen uptake, both quantitatively and qualitatively, was strongly influenced by environmental conditions. This work provides the most complete stoichiometric model used for Metabolic Flux Analysis of S. cerevisiae in wine fermentations employed so far, including the synthesis and release of relevant aroma compounds and could be used in the design of optimal nitrogen supplementation of wine fermentations. PMID:23967264

  6. Shewanella oneidensis Hfq promotes exponential phase growth, stationary phase culture density, and cell survival

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Hfq is an RNA chaperone protein that has been broadly implicated in sRNA function in bacteria. Here we describe the construction and characterization of a null allele of the gene that encodes the RNA chaperone Hfq in Shewanella oneidensis strain MR-1, a dissimilatory metal reducing bacterium. Results Loss of hfq in S. oneidensis results in a variety of mutant phenotypes, all of which are fully complemented by addition of a plasmid-borne copy of the wild type hfq gene. Aerobic cultures of the hfq? mutant grow more slowly through exponential phase than wild type cultures, and hfq? cultures reach a terminal cell density in stationary phase that is ~2/3 of that observed in wild type cultures. We have observed a similar growth phenotype when the hfq? mutant is cultured under anaerobic conditions with fumarate as the terminal electron acceptor, and we have found that the hfq? mutant is defective in Cr(VI) reduction. Finally, the hfq? mutant exhibits a striking loss of colony forming units in extended stationary phase and is highly sensitive to oxidative stress induced by H2O2 or methyl viologen (paraquat). Conclusions The hfq mutant in S. oneidensis exhibits pleiotropic phenotypes, including a defect in metal reduction. Our results also suggest that hfq mutant phenotypes in S. oneidensis may be at least partially due to increased sensitivity to oxidative stress. PMID:23394078

  7. FITNESS AND DENSITY-DEPENDENT POPULATION GROWTH IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER

    E-print Network

    Mueller, Laurence D.

    FITNESS AND DENSITY-DEPENDENT POPULATION GROWTH IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER LAURENCE D. MUELLER of population growth were determined for 26 populations of Drosophila melanogaster maintained in the serial; the other was a random heterozygous population. Rates of population growth around the carrying capacity

  8. Teaching the Verhulst Model: A Teaching Experiment in Covariational Reasoning and Exponential Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castillo-Garsow, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    Both Thompson and the duo of Confrey and Smith describe how students might be taught to build "ways of thinking" about exponential behavior by coordinating the covariation of two changing quantities, however, these authors build exponential behavior from different meanings of covariation. Confrey and Smith advocate beginning with discrete additive…

  9. On the theory of global population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    2010-12-01

    Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics.

  10. Slow Crack Growth of Brittle Materials With Exponential Crack-Velocity Formulation. Part 2; Constant Stress Rate Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    The previously determined life prediction analysis based on an exponential crack-velocity formulation was examined using a variety of experimental data on glass and advanced structural ceramics in constant stress rate and preload testing at ambient and elevated temperatures. The data fit to the relation of strength versus the log of the stress rate was very reasonable for most of the materials. Also, the preloading technique was determined equally applicable to the case of slow-crack-growth (SCG) parameter n greater than 30 for both the power-law and exponential formulations. The major limitation in the exponential crack-velocity formulation, however, was that the inert strength of a material must be known a priori to evaluate the important SCG parameter n, a significant drawback as compared with the conventional power-law crack-velocity formulation.

  11. Slow Crack Growth of Brittle Materials With Exponential Crack-Velocity Formulation. Part 3; Constant Stress and Cyclic Stress Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    The previously determined life prediction analysis based on an exponential crack-velocity formulation was examined using a variety of experimental data on advanced structural ceramics tested under constant stress and cyclic stress loading at ambient and elevated temperatures. The data fit to the relation between the time to failure and applied stress (or maximum applied stress in cyclic loading) was very reasonable for most of the materials studied. It was also found that life prediction for cyclic stress loading from data of constant stress loading in the exponential formulation was in good agreement with the experimental data, resulting in a similar degree of accuracy as compared with the power-law formulation. The major limitation in the exponential crack-velocity formulation, however, was that the inert strength of a material must be known a priori to evaluate the important slow-crack-growth (SCG) parameter n, a significant drawback as compared with the conventional power-law crack-velocity formulation.

  12. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations. PMID:26172687

  13. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  14. Population growth and intra-specific competition in duckweed

    E-print Network

    BIOS 207 1 Population growth and intra-specific competition in duckweed We will use a species of floating aquatic plant to investigate principles of population growth and intra-specific competition- independent growth. The population size is N and f(N) is the pre-capita growth rate as a function

  15. INVESTIGATION Population Growth Inflates the Per-Individual

    E-print Network

    Keinan, Alon

    INVESTIGATION Population Growth Inflates the Per-Individual Number of Deleterious Mutations operates during recent rapid population growth such as has been experienced by human populations of natural selection and population growth, we examined the trajectories of mutations with varying selection

  16. The ecological challenges to population growth.

    PubMed

    Loening, U E

    1993-04-01

    Human societies have developed by overcoming the constraints of nature. The result is population growth that will exceed, and probably has already exceeded, the carrying capacity--it is the most dramatic period in the history of the planet. It is not only growth, but existing numbers and their demands, that destroy the ecological basis. The obligation on humanity now is to add to this success over nature a negative instead of a positive feedback system. There can be no simple technical answer; solutions must come from the co-ordinated attention to environment, population, poverty and equity. Most political social and economic institutions militate against the changes needed. Two approaches are outlined: a tool for thought for communities to determine their aims in terms of fundamental human needs, and a resource modelling system to assess whether such aims are physically possible. PMID:8337747

  17. Surface Growth of a Motile Bacterial Population Resembles Growth in a Chemostat

    E-print Network

    Surface Growth of a Motile Bacterial Population Resembles Growth in a Chemostat Daniel A. Koster populations. For such populations, the relation between growth, motility and spatial position is unclear. We, that is similar to bacterial growth in a chemostat predicts that the fraction of the population lagging behind

  18. Exponential growth of norms in semigroups of linear automorphisms and Hausdorff dimension of self-projective IFS

    E-print Network

    Roberto De Leo

    2012-04-01

    Given a finitely generated semigroup S of the (normed) set of linear maps of a vector space V into itself, we find sufficient conditions for the exponential growth of the number N(k) of elements of the semigroup contained in the sphere of radius k as k->infinity. We relate the growth rate lim log N(k)/log k to the exponent of a zeta function naturally defined on the semigroup and, in case S is a semigroup of volume-preserving automorpisms, to the Hausdorff and box dimensions of the limit set of the induced semigroup of automorphisms on the corresponding projective space.

  19. Maximum likelihood estimation of population growth rates based on the coalescent.

    PubMed Central

    Kuhner, M K; Yamato, J; Felsenstein, J

    1998-01-01

    We describe a method for co-estimating 4Nemu (four times the product of effective population size and neutral mutation rate) and population growth rate from sequence samples using Metropolis-Hastings sampling. Population growth (or decline) is assumed to be exponential. The estimates of growth rate are biased upwards, especially when 4Nemu is low; there is also a slight upwards bias in the estimate of 4Nemu itself due to correlation between the parameters. This bias cannot be attributed solely to Metropolis-Hastings sampling but appears to be an inherent property of the estimator and is expected to appear in any approach which estimates growth rate from genealogy structure. Sampling additional unlinked loci is much more effective in reducing the bias than increasing the number or length of sequences from the same locus. PMID:9584114

  20. A new mechanistic growth model for simultaneous determination of lag phase duration and exponential growth rate and a new Belehdradek-type model for evaluating the effect of temperature on growth rate

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A new mechanistic growth model was developed to describe microbial growth under isothermal conditions. The new mathematical model was derived from the basic observation of bacterial growth that may include lag, exponential, and stationary phases. With this model, the lag phase duration and exponen...

  1. On dispersal and population growth for multistate matrix models

    E-print Network

    Li, Chi-Kwong

    On dispersal and population growth for multistate matrix models Chi-Kwong Li and Sebastian J models, population growth 1 Introduction Denote by (A) the spectral radius of a square matrix A, concentration, or expected size) and di is the per-capita growth rate of the population in the i-th patch

  2. Switching and Growth for Microbial Populations in Catastrophic Responsive Environments

    E-print Network

    Visco, Paolo - Laboratoire Matière et Systèmes Complexes, Université Paris 7

    Switching and Growth for Microbial Populations in Catastrophic Responsive Environments Paolo Visco for the population growth rate. For a responsive environment, two alternative strategies emerge. In the no-switching strategy, the population maximizes its instantaneous growth rate, regardless of catastrophes

  3. Propagation of Growth Uncertainty in a Physiologically Structured Population

    E-print Network

    Propagation of Growth Uncertainty in a Physiologically Structured Population H.T. Banks and Shuhua of possible growth rates across the entire population. Both approaches lead to physiologically structured]) to model growth uncertainty in a physiologically structured population. One approach involves formulating

  4. [African population growth: status and prospects].

    PubMed

    Tabutin, D

    1991-01-01

    Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and sometimes increasing. In some countries the gaps in life expectancy between rural and urban residents or between social classes are as high as 15 or 20 years. The major causes of death have scarcely changed in 2 or 3 decades: diarrhea, measles, acute respiratory infections, tetanus, malaria, all aggravated by malnutrition and the new scourge of AIDS. Migration and urbanization remain major components of family survival strategies. The increasing pace of urbanization has brought a decline in urban living standards. About half of the world's refugees and displaced persons are in Africa. It was not its demography that brought Africa to its current position of underdevelopment, but population will exercise enormous pressure on available resources. Already for the continents as a whole, food production is increasing less rapidly than population. The challenges are immense: from now until 2000, the working age population will increase by 49% and the school age population (6-11 years) by 58%. PMID:12283847

  5. Lack of synchronization between iron uptake and cell growth leads to iron overload in Saccharomyces cerevisiae during post-exponential growth modes

    PubMed Central

    Park, Jinkyu; McCormick, Sean P.; Chakrabarti, Mrinmoy; Lindahl, Paul A.

    2014-01-01

    Fermenting cells growing exponentially on rich (YPAD) medium transitioned to a slow-growing state as glucose levels declined and their metabolism shifted to respiration. During exponential growth, Fe import and cell growth rates were matched, affording an approximately invariant cellular Fe concentration. During the transitionary period, the high-affinity Fe import rate declined slower than the cell growth rate declined, causing Fe to accumulate, initially as FeIII oxyhydroxide nanoparticles but eventually as mitochondrial and vacuolar Fe. Once in slow-growth mode, Fe import and cell growth rates were again matched, and the cellular Fe concentration was again approximately invariant. Fermenting cells grown on minimal medium (MM) grew more slowly during exponential phase and transitioned to a true stationary state as glucose levels declined. The Fe concentration of MM cells that just entered stationary state was similar to that of YPAD cells, but MM cells continued to accumulate Fe in stationary state. Fe initially accumulated as nanoparticles and high-spin FeII species, but vacuolar FeIII also eventually accumulated. Surprisingly, Fe-packed 5-day-old MM cells suffered no more ROS damage than younger cells, suggesting that Fe concentration alone does not accurately predict the extent of ROS damage. The mode and rate of growth at the time of harvesting dramatically affected cellular Fe content. A mathematical model of Fe metabolism in a growing cell was developed. The model included Fe import via a regulated high-affinity pathway and an unregulated low-affinity pathway. Fe import from the cytosol into vacuoles and mitochondria, and nanoparticle formation were also included. The model captured essential trafficking behavior, demonstrating that cells regulate Fe import in accordance with their overall growth rate and that they misregulate Fe import when nanoparticles accumulate. The lack of regulation of Fe in yeast is perhaps unique compared to the tight regulation of other cellular metabolites. This phenomenon likely derives from the unique chemistry associated with Fe nanoparticle formation. PMID:24344915

  6. Fitness and density-dependent population growth in Drosophila melanogaster

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-03-01

    The density-dependent rates of population growth were determined for 26 populations of Drosophila melanogaster maintained in the serial transfer system. Twenty-five populations were homozygous for an entire chromosome 2 sampled from nature; the other was a random heterozygous population. Rates of population growth around the carrying capacity cannot explain the large fitness depression of these lines. However, the homozygous lines show large differences in rates of population growth at low densities relative to the random heterozygous standard. The average relative fitness of the homozygous lines, as determined from the growth rates at the lowest density, is 0.51.

  7. Development and population growth: the Indian experience.

    PubMed

    Chandna, R C

    1996-01-01

    This paper analyzes the prevailing demographic trends and development processes in India. Data were taken from the World Development Report and the Human Development Reports of South Asia and India, Census of India, and Government of India's Economic Survey. A much slower economic progress and human development was observed in South Asia as compared to those in East Asia. At present, the income levels in East Asia are 27 times higher and have a human development index twice that of South Asia. India had a better economic performance as compared to other countries in South Asia. However, the human deprivations within India continue to hinder the country's emergence as a politico-economic power on the international scene. Investigation of the diversity in population growth and development in India was presented in this paper using indicators such as: average annual population growth; couple protection rate; female literacy; mean age at marriage for females; infrastructural facilities; proportion below poverty line; and the per capita income. Finally, specific suggestions on how to accelerate the fertility transition in the country were enumerated. PMID:12179067

  8. Approximate models for the study of exponential changed quantities: Application on the plasma waves growth rate or damping

    SciTech Connect

    Xaplanteris, C. L.; Xaplanteris, L. C.; Leousis, D. P.

    2014-03-15

    Many physical phenomena that concern the research these days are basically complicated because of being multi-parametric. Thus, their study and understanding meets with big if not unsolved obstacles. Such complicated and multi-parametric is the plasmatic state as well, where the plasma and the physical quantities that appear along with it have chaotic behavior. Many of those physical quantities change exponentially and at most times they are stabilized by presenting wavy behavior. Mostly in the transitive state rather than the steady state, the exponentially changing quantities (Growth, Damping etc) depend on each other in most cases. Thus, it is difficult to distinguish the cause from the result. The present paper attempts to help this difficult study and understanding by proposing mathematical exponential models that could relate with the study and understanding of the plasmatic wavy instability behavior. Such instabilities are already detected, understood and presented in previous publications of our laboratory. In other words, our new contribution is the study of the already known plasmatic quantities by using mathematical models (modeling and simulation). These methods are both useful and applicable in the chaotic theory. In addition, our ambition is to also conduct a list of models useful for the study of chaotic problems, such as those that appear into the plasma, starting with this paper's examples.

  9. Living bacteria rheology: population growth, aggregation patterns and cooperative behaviour under different shear flows

    E-print Network

    P. Patricio; P. L. Almeida; R. Portela; R. G. Sobral; I. R. Grilo; T. Cidade; C. R. Leal

    2014-03-06

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology -- in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus -- strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant -- were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the two strains follow different and rich behaviours, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviours, which were observed to be shear stress dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviours whose exponent are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant have complex behaviours, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. These behaviours reflect nevertheless the bacteria growth stage.

  10. Living bacteria rheology: Population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patrício, P.; Almeida, P. L.; Portela, R.; Sobral, R. G.; Grilo, I. R.; Cidade, T.; Leal, C. R.

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology—in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus—strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9—were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

  11. Human population growth and the demographic transition

    PubMed Central

    Bongaarts, John

    2009-01-01

    The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation. PMID:19770150

  12. Population growth rate and its determinants: an overview.

    PubMed Central

    Sibly, Richard M; Hone, Jim

    2002-01-01

    We argue that population growth rate is the key unifying variable linking the various facets of population ecology. The importance of population growth rate lies partly in its central role in forecasting future population trends; indeed if the form of density dependence were constant and known, then the future population dynamics could to some degree be predicted. We argue that population growth rate is also central to our understanding of environmental stress: environmental stressors should be defined as factors which when first applied to a population reduce population growth rate. The joint action of such stressors determines an organism's ecological niche, which should be defined as the set of environmental conditions where population growth rate is greater than zero (where population growth rate = r = log(e)(N(t+1)/N(t))). While environmental stressors have negative effects on population growth rate, the same is true of population density, the case of negative linear effects corresponding to the well-known logistic equation. Following Sinclair, we recognize population regulation as occurring when population growth rate is negatively density dependent. Surprisingly, given its fundamental importance in population ecology, only 25 studies were discovered in the literature in which population growth rate has been plotted against population density. In 12 of these the effects of density were linear; in all but two of the remainder the relationship was concave viewed from above. Alternative approaches to establishing the determinants of population growth rate are reviewed, paying special attention to the demographic and mechanistic approaches. The effects of population density on population growth rate may act through their effects on food availability and associated effects on somatic growth, fecundity and survival, according to a 'numerical response', the evidence for which is briefly reviewed. Alternatively, there may be effects on population growth rate of population density in addition to those that arise through the partitioning of food between competitors; this is 'interference competition'. The distinction is illustrated using a replicated laboratory experiment on a marine copepod, Tisbe battagliae. Application of these approaches in conservation biology, ecotoxicology and human demography is briefly considered. We conclude that population regulation, density dependence, resource and interference competition, the effects of environmental stress and the form of the ecological niche, are all best defined and analysed in terms of population growth rate. PMID:12396508

  13. LETTER Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations

    E-print Network

    Hui, Bowen

    LETTER Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. Keywords Allee effects, intrinsic population growth, long-distance dispersal, parentage, Pinus ponderosa

  14. Circadian rhythm and cell population growth

    E-print Network

    Clairambault, Jean; Lepoutre, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Molecular circadian clocks, that are found in all nucleated cells of mammals, are known to dictate rhythms of approximately 24 hours (circa diem) to many physiological processes. This includes metabolism (e.g., temperature, hormonal blood levels) and cell proliferation. It has been observed in tumor-bearing laboratory rodents that a severe disruption of these physiological rhythms results in accelerated tumor growth. The question of accurately representing the control exerted by circadian clocks on healthy and tumour tissue proliferation to explain this phenomenon has given rise to mathematical developments, which we review. The main goal of these previous works was to examine the influence of a periodic control on the cell division cycle in physiologically structured cell populations, comparing the effects of periodic control with no control, and of different periodic controls between them. We state here a general convexity result that may give a theoretical justification to the concept of cancer chronothera...

  15. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth

  16. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

  17. Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

    PubMed

    Zhu, J

    1995-01-01

    In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration. PMID:12288964

  18. PERSPECTIVES Allometric growth, life-history invariants and population energetics

    E-print Network

    Enquist, Brian Joseph

    IDEAS AND PERSPECTIVES Allometric growth, life-history invariants and population energetics Evan P, growth, and life history ultimately govern the energy transformations of populations and communities-mail: epe@mail.utexas.edu Abstract Population and community level processes must be at least partially

  19. Super-Exponential Growth of Large Scale Magnetic Fields in Rotating Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vishniac, Ethan T.; Shapovalov, D.

    2011-01-01

    We consider the growth of large scale magnetic fields in a periodic box with an imposed shear as a simplified model for the growth of galactic magnetic fields. The simulations show very rapid growth of large scale magnetic fields, driven by the divergence of the induced magnetic helicity flux. We show that this flux is independent of the existence of a large scale field, and that the galactic dynamo will grow to saturation in one kinematic e=folding time. We also show that, in general, there is no purely kinematic regime for alpha-Omega dynamos.

  20. The lack of synchronization between iron uptake and cell growth leads to iron overload in Saccharomyces cerevisiae during post-exponential growth modes.

    PubMed

    Park, Jinkyu; McCormick, Sean P; Chakrabarti, Mrinmoy; Lindahl, Paul A

    2013-12-31

    Fermenting cells growing exponentially on rich (YPAD) medium underwent a transition to a slow-growing state as glucose levels declined and their metabolism shifted to respiration. During exponential growth, Fe import and cell-growth rates were matched, affording an approximately invariant cellular Fe concentration. During the transition period, the high-affinity Fe import rate declined slower than the cell-growth rate declined, causing Fe to accumulate, initially as Fe(III) oxyhydroxide nanoparticles but eventually as mitochondrial and vacuolar Fe. Once the cells had reached slow-growth mode, Fe import and cell-growth rates were again matched, and the cellular Fe concentration was again approximately invariant. Fermenting cells grown on minimal medium (MM) grew more slowly during the exponential phase and underwent a transition to a true stationary state as glucose levels declined. The Fe concentration of MM cells that just entered the stationary state was similar to that of YPAD cells, but MM cells continued to accumulate Fe in the stationary state. Fe initially accumulated as nanoparticles and high-spin Fe(II) species, but vacuolar Fe(III) also eventually accumulated. Surprisingly, Fe-packed 5-day-old MM cells suffered no more reactive oxygen species (ROS) damage than younger cells, suggesting that the Fe concentration alone does not accurately predict the extent of ROS damage. The mode and rate of growth at the time of harvesting dramatically affected cellular Fe content. A mathematical model of Fe metabolism in a growing cell was developed. The model included the import of Fe via a regulated high-affinity pathway and an unregulated low-affinity pathway. The import of Fe from the cytosol to vacuoles and mitochondria and nanoparticle formation were also included. The model captured essential trafficking behavior, demonstrating that cells regulate Fe import in accordance with their overall growth rate and that they misregulate Fe import when nanoparticles accumulate. The lack of regulation of Fe in yeast is perhaps unique compared to the tight regulation of other cellular metabolites. This phenomenon likely derives from the unique chemistry associated with Fe nanoparticle formation. PMID:24344915

  1. Non-Exponential Growth in Density-Stratified Thin Vertically Isothermal Discs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mond, M.; Shtemler, Yu. M.

    2011-07-01

    Linear instability of an equilibrium configuration with toroidal dominant magnetic field is studied in thin vertically-isothermal Keplerian discs. Solutions of the stability problem are found explicitly by asymptotic expansions in small aspect ratio of the disc. The perturbations are decoupled into in-plane and vertical modes, which are the inertia-Coriolis and magnetosonic waves. It is shown that the axisymmetric MRI is completely suppressed by dominant toroidal magnetic fields. Exhibiting spectral asymptotic stability, thin discs are nonetheless shown to host intensive activity in the shape of non modal growth of initial small perturbations. In pure hydrodynamic case two mechanisms that lead to such behavior are identified and studied, namely, non-resonant excitation of vertically confined sound waves by stable planar inertia-Coriolis modes that results in linear growth with time, as well as resonant coupling of those two modes that leads to a quadratic growth of the initial perturbations. It is further speculated that the non modal growth can give rise to secondary stratorotational instabilities and thus lead to a new route to turbulence generation in thin discs.

  2. Development of Populations 177 6.6 Growth of Populations with Sexual Reproduction

    E-print Network

    Alsmeyer, Gerold

    Development of Populations 177 6.6 Growth of Populations with Sexual Reproduction G. Alsmeyer In Section 5.9, we studied the effect of sexual reproduction on criticality and ex- tinction risk-negative Alsmeyer G (2005). Growth of Populations with Sexual Reproduction. In: Branching Processes: Variation

  3. Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    Trotter, Meredith V.; Krishna-Kumar, Siddharth; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2015-01-01

    Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find that in many cases a change in life history parameters will increase both the mean and variance of population growth of polar bears. This counterintuitive behaviour of the variance complicates predictions about overall population impacts of management interventions. Sensitivity calculations for cumulative extinction risk factor in changes to both mean and variance, providing a highly useful quantitative tool for conservation management. The mean stochastic growth rate and its sensitivities do not fully describe the dynamics of population growth. The use of variance sensitivities gives a more complete understanding of population dynamics and facilitates the calculation of new sensitivities for extinction processes.

  4. Population growth and atmospheric emissions in California. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Cramer, J.C.

    1998-03-01

    The objectives of this research are to better understand and estimate the net effects of population growth on emissions in California and to estimate the net benefits of air quality programs, which have offset the negative effects of population growth and achieved actual reductions in emissions.

  5. Population Growth and a Sustainable Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortimore, Michael; Tiffen, Mary

    1994-01-01

    Provides a history of farming practices in a densely populated area of Kenya where a recent study of the resource management practices showed positive, not negative, influences of increasing population density on both environmental conservation and productivity. (LZ)

  6. Integrated kinetic and probabilistic modeling of the growth potential of bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    George, S M; Métris, A; Baranyi, J

    2015-05-01

    When bacteria are exposed to osmotic stress, some cells recover and grow, while others die or are unculturable. This leads to a viable count growth curve where the cell number decreases before the onset of the exponential growth phase. From such curves, it is impossible to estimate what proportion of the initial cells generates the growth because it leads to an ill-conditioned numerical problem. Here, we applied a combination of experimental and statistical methods, based on optical density measurements, to infer both the probability of growth and the maximum specific growth rate of the culture. We quantified the growth potential of a bacterial population as a quantity composed from the probability of growth and the "suitability" of the growing subpopulation to the new environment. We found that, for all three laboratory media studied, the probability of growth decreased while the "work to be done" by the growing subpopulation (defined as the negative logarithm of their suitability parameter) increased with NaCl concentration. The results suggest that the effect of medium on the probability of growth could be described by a simple shift parameter, a differential NaCl concentration that can be accounted for by the change in the medium composition. Finally, we highlighted the need for further understanding of the effect of the osmoprotectant glycine betaine on metabolism. PMID:25747002

  7. Integrated Kinetic and Probabilistic Modeling of the Growth Potential of Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    George, S. M.; Métris, A.

    2015-01-01

    When bacteria are exposed to osmotic stress, some cells recover and grow, while others die or are unculturable. This leads to a viable count growth curve where the cell number decreases before the onset of the exponential growth phase. From such curves, it is impossible to estimate what proportion of the initial cells generates the growth because it leads to an ill-conditioned numerical problem. Here, we applied a combination of experimental and statistical methods, based on optical density measurements, to infer both the probability of growth and the maximum specific growth rate of the culture. We quantified the growth potential of a bacterial population as a quantity composed from the probability of growth and the “suitability” of the growing subpopulation to the new environment. We found that, for all three laboratory media studied, the probability of growth decreased while the “work to be done” by the growing subpopulation (defined as the negative logarithm of their suitability parameter) increased with NaCl concentration. The results suggest that the effect of medium on the probability of growth could be described by a simple shift parameter, a differential NaCl concentration that can be accounted for by the change in the medium composition. Finally, we highlighted the need for further understanding of the effect of the osmoprotectant glycine betaine on metabolism. PMID:25747002

  8. B659 Project Report TIGER POPULATION GROWTH PREDICTION

    E-print Network

    Connelly, Kay

    B659 Project Report TIGER POPULATION GROWTH PREDICTION -Tasneem Alowaisheq and Devendra Singh Dhami 1. Abstract The purpose of this project is to predict the change in the population of the tigers Learning algorithms for the task of predicting the change in the Tiger population whether positive

  9. Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective

    E-print Network

    Lanz, B.

    We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The ...

  10. Food Production, Population Growth, and Environmental Quality. Caltech Population Program Occasional Papers, Series 1, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groth, Edward, III

    This paper, one in a series of occasional publications, discusses trends in food production and population growth, emphasizing how environmental quality will be affected. The series is intended to increase understanding of the interrelationships between population growth and socioeconomic and cultural patterns throughout the world, and to…

  11. Population Dynamics: Rate of Change in Population Size Track Population Size over Time

    E-print Network

    Caraco, Thomas

    .5) N2.5 = 180 e - 2 N2.5 = 24.36 24 #12;3 Exponential Growth Population dynamics Density generation, large mass #12;5 USFWS Geometric Growth Discrete time: t, (t + 1), (t + 2), ... Nt Population1 Population Dynamics: Rate of Change in Population Size Track Population Size over Time Mark

  12. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates. PMID:12346543

  13. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  14. Population growth, distribution, and size in Latin America

    E-print Network

    Lopez-Carr, David

    with urban growth continued · The urban economy · Migration #12;TODAY · Agricultural and Rural Development-2000. 1 billion by 2100? · Declining fertility, Rural out-migration (2% annually) and Urbanization, butLAST TIME · Population growth, distribution, and size in Latin America · Urbanization Problems

  15. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  16. Models of the World human population growth- critical analysis

    E-print Network

    Golosovsky, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We analyze mathematical models of the global human population growth and compare them to actual dynamics of the world population and of the world surplus product. We consider a possibility that the so-called world's demographic transition is not a dynamic crossover but a phase transition that affects all aspects of our life.

  17. Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development.

    PubMed

    Birdsall, N

    1984-09-01

    A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic conditions for poor families if they hope to reduce population growth. Education and job opportunities must be expanded and social security provided for the elderly. In the past it was assumed that fertility would only decline when urbanization, industrialization, and income reached a certain level. It is now known that appropriate policies can effectively reduce fertility even in the absence of economic advancement. Fertility declines are more closely related to increases in literacy and life expectancy than to increases in the gross national product. Family planning programs in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Korea, Sri Lanka, and Tunisia have reduced fertility far below the level normally associated with the income levels prevailing in those countries. PMID:12266357

  18. TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

  19. "Runaway" population growth to hurt RP's economy -- ADB.

    PubMed

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised concern over continued growth of the Filipino population. The ADB stated that increase in population could have a negative effect on economic development and social welfare. In its annual Asian Development Outlook, the ADB reported that the Philippines¿ 2.3% annual increase in population is attributable to Filipino couples' lack of knowledge about or the means to practice effective birth control, as well as to the presence of "incentives for couples to have many children". The ADB recommended that the Philippines should establish a strong population policy based on combined economic incentives and adequate family planning services supported by a committed government. PMID:12349213

  20. Effect of Na+ Concentration and Nutritional Factors on the Lag Phase and Exponential Growth Rates of the Marine Bacterium Deleya aesta and of Other Marine Species

    PubMed Central

    Berthelet, Marc; MacLeod, Robert A.

    1989-01-01

    Growth of the marine bacterium Deleya aesta in a succinate minimal medium showed increasingly long lag phases as Na+ was decreased below the optimum (200 to 500 mM). The minimum Na+ concentration permitting growth consistently was 15 mM. Supplementation of the medium with KHCO3 (as a source of CO2) or yeast extract, especially in combination, reduced the lag phase, increased the rate of exponential growth, and allowed growth at 8 mM Na+. KHCO3 did not reduce the lag period but did increase the rate of exponential growth of Deleya venusta, Deleya pacifica, and Alteromonas haloplanktis 214. Yeast extract was active for all three. The effect of yeast extract on D. aesta could be reproduced by a mixture of amino acids approximating its amino acid composition. l-Alanine, l-aspartate, and l-methionine, in combination, were the most effective in reducing the lag phase, although not as effective as the complete mixture. Succinate, l-aspartate, and l-alanine were transported into the cells by largely independent pathways and oxidized at rates which were much lower at 10 than at 200 mM Na+. l-Methionine was transported at a low rate in the absence of Na+ and at a higher rate at 10 mM but was not oxidized. Above 25 mM Na+, the rate of transport of the carbon source was not the rate-limiting step for growth. It is concluded that a combination of transportable carbon sources reduced the lag period and increased the rate of exponential growth because they can be taken up independently and at low Na+ utilized simultaneously. PMID:16347969

  1. Population Blocks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Martin H.

    1992-01-01

    Describes an educational game called "Population Blocks" that is designed to illustrate the concept of exponential growth of the human population and some potential effects of overpopulation. The game material consists of wooden blocks; 18 blocks are painted green (representing land), 7 are painted blue (representing water); and the remaining…

  2. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    PubMed

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture. PMID:12284704

  3. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  4. Consequences of increased longevity for wealth, fertility, and population growth

    E-print Network

    Bogojevic, Aleksandar; Karapandza, Rasa

    2008-01-01

    We present, solve and numerically simulate a simple model that describes the consequences of increased longevity on fertility rates, population growth and the distribution of wealth in developed societies. We look at the consequences of the repeated use of life extension techniques and show that they represent a novel commodity whose introduction will profoundly influence key aspects of economy and society in general. In particular, we uncover two phases within our simplified model, labeled as 'mortal' and 'immortal'. Within the life extension scenario it is possible to have sustainable economic growth in a population of stable size, as a result of dynamical equilibrium between the two phases.

  5. Switching and growth for microbial populations in catastrophic responsive environments

    E-print Network

    Paolo Visco; Rosalind J. Allen; Satya N. Majumdar; Martin R. Evans

    2010-04-12

    Phase variation, or stochastic switching between alternative states of gene expression, is common among microbes, and may be important in coping with changing environments. We use a theoretical model to assess whether such switching is a good strategy for growth in environments with occasional catastrophic events. We find that switching can be advantageous, but only when the environment is responsive to the microbial population. In our model, microbes switch randomly between two phenotypic states, with different growth rates. The environment undergoes sudden "catastrophes", the probability of which depends on the composition of the population. We derive a simple analytical result for the population growth rate. For a responsive environment, two alternative strategies emerge. In the "no switching" strategy, the population maximises its instantaneous growth rate, regardless of catastrophes. In the "switching" strategy, the microbial switching rate is tuned to minimise the environmental response. Which of these strategies is most favourable depends on the parameters of the model. Previous studies have shown that microbial switching can be favourable when the environment changes in an unresponsive fashion between several states. Here, we demonstrate an alternative role for phase variation in allowing microbes to maximise their growth in catastrophic responsive environments.

  6. Global analysis of population growth and river water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Human-related pressures on river water quality are a concern of global proportions.. However, little is known about the more specific impact of increasing population on river water quality and how it provides a vital environmental reference for water management. Combining global gridded data on population and river discharge with digitized river networks, we conduct numerical simulations to demonstrate the direct impact of population growth on river water quality. Our model traces the transport, dilution, and degradation of anthropogenic organic matter (BOD) emissions into rivers. Spanning the period from the early 20th century to the present, our analysis indicates that the pressure on downstream river networks markedly increased since the population explosion starting in 1950, especially in developing countries. The ratio of population to river discharge reveals the link between impact severity and dilution capacity. In addition, a denser population is found to be correlated with higher impact severity. Consideration of direct population influences on global river water quality becomes limited as society develops and should be studied as a fundamental reference for human-related river water management. Keywords: Population growth, River water quality, Space-time analysis, Human activities, Water Management

  7. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    PubMed

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result. PMID:12179534

  8. Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phinney, D. E.; Arp, G. K.

    1978-01-01

    A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

  9. Growth, population age structure, and aspects of the reproductive biology

    E-print Network

    199 Growth, population age structure, and aspects of the reproductive biology of snowy grouper). Abstract.­Sagittae (n=2,263) and gonads (n=870) from snowy grouper, Epinephelus niveatus, caught primar undergoing sex change provided conclu- sive evidence that snowy grouper are protogynous hermaphrodites

  10. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  11. History, Population Growth, and Management of Wolves in Wisconsin

    E-print Network

    Chapter 6 History, Population Growth, and Management of Wolves in Wisconsin Adrian P. Wydeven, Jane. Van Deelen Preface While we were growing up in Wisconsin during the 1950s and 1960s, gray wolves (we always called them timber wolves, Canis lupus) were making their last stand in northern Wisconsin. Wolves

  12. The Educational Effects of Rapid Rural Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Peggy J.; Green, Bernal L.

    Rapid population growth in rural areas has confronted rural communities and particularly rural educational systems with a number of problems. Sudden, large increases in students crowd school facilities and strain budgets. The different values, attitudes, and orientations toward education of the newcomers act as a catalyst for changes and can cause…

  13. Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

    1981-01-01

    Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables as…

  14. The Periodic Theory of Elements for World Population 1 Douglas R. White,

    E-print Network

    White, Douglas R.

    segments of the world population with (1) transition from early exponential growth, (2) quadratic growth to lower growth associated with a power-law growth-reducing singularity, (3) population fluctuations after;World Population 1 In modeling the processes of human population growth, where we need to recognize

  15. An exponential growth of computational phantom research in radiation protection, imaging, and radiotherapy: A review of the fifty-year history

    PubMed Central

    Xu, X. George

    2014-01-01

    Radiation dose calculation using models of the human anatomy has been a subject of great interest to radiation protection, medical imaging, and radiotherapy. However, early pioneers of this field did not foresee the exponential growth of research activity as observed today. This review article walks the reader through the history of the research and development in this field of study which started some 50 years ago. This review identifies a clear progression of computational phantom complexity which can be denoted by three distinct generations. The first generation of stylized phantoms, representing a grouping of less than dozen models, was initially developed in the 1960s at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to calculate internal doses from nuclear medicine procedures. Despite their anatomical simplicity, these computational phantoms were the best tools available at the time for internal/external dosimetry, image evaluation, and treatment dose evaluations. A second generation of a large number of voxelized phantoms arose rapidly in the late 1980s as a result of the increased availability of tomographic medical imaging and computers. Surprisingly, the last decade saw the emergence of the third generation of phantoms which are based on advanced geometries called boundary representation (BREP) in the form of Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS) or polygonal meshes. This new class of phantoms now consists of over 287 models including those used for non-ionizing radiation applications. This review article aims to provide the reader with a general understanding of how the field of computational phantoms came about and the technical challenges it faced at different times. This goal is achieved by defining basic geometry modeling techniques and by analyzing selected phantoms in terms of geometrical features and dosimetric problems to be solved. The rich historical information is summarized in four tables that are aided by highlights in the text on how some of the most well-known phantoms were developed and used in practice. Some of the information covered in this review has not been previously reported, for example, the CAM and CAF phantoms developed in 1970s for space radiation applications. The author also clarifies confusion about “population-average” prospective dosimetry needed for radiological protection under the current ICRP radiation protection system and “individualized” retrospective dosimetry often performed for medical physics studies. To illustrate the impact of computational phantoms, a section of this article is devoted to examples from the author’s own research group. Finally the author explains an unexpected finding during the course of preparing for this article that the phantoms from the past 50 years followed a pattern of exponential growth. The review ends on a brief discussion of future research needs (A supplementary file “3DPhantoms.pdf” to Figure 15 is available for download that will allow a reader to interactively visualize the phantoms in 3D). PMID:25144730

  16. Determinants of Population Growth in Rajasthan: An Analysis

    E-print Network

    V. V. Singh; Alka Mittal; Neetish Sharma; Florentin Smarandache

    2010-12-01

    Rajasthan is the biggest State of India and is currently in the second phase of demographic transition and is moving towards the third phase of demographic transition with very slow pace. However, state's population will continue to grow for a time period. Rajasthan's performance in the social and economic sector has been poor in past. The poor performance is the outcome of poverty, illiteracy and poor development, which co-exist and reinforce each other. There are many demographic and socio-economic factors responsible for population growth. This paper attempts to identify the demographic and socio-economic variables, which are responsible for population growth in Rajasthan with the help of multivariate analysis.

  17. Experimental Design and Estimation of Growth Rate Distributions in Size-Structured Shrimp Populations

    E-print Network

    involving the estimation of prob- ability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations. Key words: Inverse problems, size-structured population models, growth rate distributions, mathematical and statistical modeling, uncertainty in growth

  18. STA4000 Final Report -Detailed Analysis Investigation on Iceland Population Growth and Climate

    E-print Network

    Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.

    STA4000 Final Report - Detailed Analysis Investigation on Iceland Population Growth and Climate of Iceland Population Growth and Climate Change. 2 Data Source 2.1 Population of Iceland Iceland from 1735 (Statistics Iceland official web site). The population and the growth rate (measured

  19. Enhancerless Cytomegalovirus Is Capable of Establishing a Low-Level Maintenance Infection in Severely Immunodeficient Host Tissues but Fails in Exponential Growth?

    PubMed Central

    Podlech, Jürgen; Pintea, Rares; Kropp, Kai A.; Fink, Annette; Lemmermann, Niels A. W.; Erlach, Katja C.; Isern, Elena; Angulo, Ana; Ghazal, Peter; Reddehase, Matthias J.

    2010-01-01

    Major immediate-early transcriptional enhancers are genetic control elements that act, through docking with host transcription factors, as a decisive regulatory unit for efficient initiation of the productive virus cycle. Animal models are required for studying the function of enhancers paradigmatically in host organs. Here, we have sought to quantitatively assess the establishment, maintenance, and level of in vivo growth of enhancerless mutants of murine cytomegalovirus in comparison with those of an enhancer-bearing counterpart in models of the immunocompromised or immunologically immature host. Evidence is presented showing that enhancerless viruses are capable of forming restricted foci of infection but fail to grow exponentially. PMID:20375164

  20. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    PubMed

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be provided to 3 productive sectors: traditional agriculture, small factories producing mass consumption goods, and construction of low income housing. The strategy would promote economic growth and expansion without further deterioration of income distribution, employment, and price stability. A simulation study demonstrated the advantages of such a strategy in relation to alternative strategies. PMID:12266019

  1. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on educating and empowering women in these enclaves. Women are in charge of birth spacing and all aspects of management of energy, food, water and the local environment, more so than men, in most countries. PMID:12284190

  2. Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gendell, Murray

    This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

  3. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  4. The Limits to Growth: Background and Exercise Suggestions The Limits to Growth (Figure 1) describes the prospects for growth in human population and

    E-print Network

    Ford, Andrew

    the prospects for growth in human population and industrial production in a global system over the next century understanding of the challenges of dealing with population and industrial growth in a finite world. Figure 1The Limits to Growth: Background and Exercise Suggestions The Limits to Growth (Figure 1) describes

  5. Yellow-Bellied Marmot Population Dynamics: Demographic Mechanisms of Growth and Decline

    E-print Network

    Oli, Madan K.; Armitage, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    relative influence on the projected population growth rate (l). Relative magnitudes of elasticities did not differ between years characterized by positive (l . 1.0) and negative (l , 1.0) population growth. However, retrospective analyses of a life table...

  6. Enrichment in a General Class of Stoichiometric Producer-Consumer Population Growth Models

    E-print Network

    Peckham, Bruce B.

    -Consumer Population Growth Models Harlan Stecha, c, Bruce Peckhama and John Pastor b is stoichometric in that it includes the growth constraints imposed by species of stoichiometric producer-consumer population models. Such models recognize that biomass

  7. Yellow-bellied marmot population dynamics: demographic mechanisms of growth and decline

    E-print Network

    Oli, Madan K.; Armitage, Kenneth

    2004-09-01

    relative influence on the projected population growth rate (?). Relative magnitudes of elasticities did not differ between years characterized by positive (? > 1.0) and negative (? population growth. However, retrospective analyses of a life table...

  8. Exponential gravity

    SciTech Connect

    Linder, Eric V.

    2009-12-15

    We investigate a f(R) modification of gravity that is exponential in the Ricci scalar R to explain cosmic acceleration. The steepness of this dependence provides extra freedom to satisfy solar system and other curvature regime constraints. With a parameter to alleviate the usual fine-tuning of having the modification strengthen near the present, the total number of parameters is only one more than {lambda}CDM. The resulting class of solutions asymptotes to w=-1 but has no cosmological constant. We calculate the dynamics in detail, examine the effect on the matter power spectrum, and provide a simple fitting form relating the two.

  9. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts of the West African forest belt. There is also the absence of the Green Revolution, i.e., the use of new high yielding seeds and new technologies in agriculture that has led to marked increases in yields in most other parts of the world. A totally different and more productive agriculture might evolve if African governments were to fundamentally change their vision. Existing production technology could allow substantial increases in the yields of many crops if some basic changes were made in the policies affecting agriculture. A way to achieve such change would be to make farming profitable. The effect of population growth in diminishing returns to agriculture also lends urgency to the need for family planning. Generally, population policy in Africa badly needs strengthening. PMID:12264271

  10. A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

    E-print Network

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

  11. Neutral genomic regions refine models of recent rapid human population growth

    E-print Network

    Keinan, Alon

    Neutral genomic regions refine models of recent rapid human population growth Elodie Gazavea,1 , Li of recent rapid growth in effective population size, although estimates have varied greatly among studies of individuals have considered recent population growth in fitting models to the observed site frequency spectrum

  12. STA4000 Final Report -Summary Investigation on Iceland Population Growth and Climate

    E-print Network

    Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.

    STA4000 Final Report - Summary Investigation on Iceland Population Growth and Climate Change CHEN the possible relationship between population growth with climate change. But the impact of climate change is to investigate the relationship between the Iceland population growth and the climate change before

  13. An agent-based modelling approach to estimate error in gyrodactylid population growth

    E-print Network

    Wilensky, Uri

    An agent-based modelling approach to estimate error in gyrodactylid population growth Raúl Ramírez: Gyrodactylus salaris Demographic stochasticity Gyrodactylid performance Infection dynamics Population growth- ever, gave unrealistically low population growth rates when used as parameters in the model, and a sche

  14. OIKOS 103: 559565, 2003 Density dependent population growth of the two-spotted spider

    E-print Network

    Agrawal, Anurag

    OIKOS 103: 559­565, 2003 Density dependent population growth of the two-spotted spider mite. and Agrawal, A. A. 2003. Density dependent population growth of the two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus that depress population growth, such as food deterioration or limitation. On large plants, spider mite

  15. Effects of Code Growth and Parsimony Pressure on Populations in Genetic

    E-print Network

    Soule, Terence

    Effects of Code Growth and Parsimony Pressure on Populations in Genetic Programming \\Lambda Terence be used as a partial indicator of success or failure for individual populations. Keywords: Code Growth­ mony pressure on an evolving population, beyond limiting code growth, are not well understood, nor

  16. Simultaneous inference of selection and population growth from patterns of variation in the

    E-print Network

    Nielsen, Rasmus

    Simultaneous inference of selection and population growth from patterns of variation in the human-specific methods, and (iii) strong evidence for very recent population growth. Natural selection alters observed population growth, bottlenecks, and subdivision, also affect observed patterns of genetic variation

  17. 174 Branching Processes: Variation, Growth, and Extinction of Populations (Jagers 1997b)

    E-print Network

    Klebaner, Fima C.

    174 Branching Processes: Variation, Growth, and Extinction of Populations (Jagers 1997b) z=1 |m grows, and does so at the very same rate as the growth of the population (this basically means, but at a slower, linear rate ­ there are also other, polynomial growth rates. 6.5.3 Slowly growing populations F

  18. Estimating the growth of a newly established moose population using reproductive value

    E-print Network

    Engen, Steinar

    Estimating the growth of a newly established moose population using reproductive value Bernt the population growth rate and environmental stochasticity of long-lived species is difficult because annual. We show that the population growth rate was high (s^00.26). The major stochastic influences

  19. Estimating small-area population growth using geographic-knowledge-guided cellular automata

    E-print Network

    Santillana, Mauricio

    Estimating small-area population growth using geographic-knowledge-guided cellular automata F of Texas as the base-year population data, develop a set of rules based on specific urban-growth situations of population growth/decline in the small area from the censal year. The problem then becomes how to model

  20. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population

  1. Aggregation and Population Growth: The Relational Logistic Regression and Markov Logic Cases

    E-print Network

    Poole, David

    Aggregation and Population Growth: The Relational Logistic Regression and Markov Logic Cases David probabilities represent a logistic regression model and show how the population growth of this well the population growth into account. We compare the resulting model to Markov logic parametrizations of the same

  2. Journal of Theoretical Biology 249 (2007) 153161 Introduction of Trojan sex chromosomes to boost population growth

    E-print Network

    Cotton, Sam

    2007-01-01

    population growth Samuel CottonÃ, Claus Wedekind Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne potential. In some situations, population growth is determined by the number of females available be most effective for an increase of population growth, especially if the induced sex change has little

  3. Logistic Growth Logistic growth is a simple model for predicting the size y(t) of a population as a

    E-print Network

    Feldman, Joel

    Logistic Growth Logistic growth is a simple model for predicting the size y(t) of a population as a function of the time t. In the most naive model of population growth, each couple produces 2+2 offspring and then dies. Thus over the course of one generation the size of the population grows from y(t) to y(t + tg

  4. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983-2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (??); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of ?? during 1983-2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972-1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008-1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of ?? that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding ??. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and ?? provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic analysis.

  5. Development Planning and Population Growth and Redistribution in the Republic of Iraq.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    El Attar, M. E.; Salman, A. D.

    Utilizing the 1947, 1957, and l965 census data and the 1970 preliminary population count, the relationship between population growth and redistribution and development planning in Iraq was examined. Trends in rural-urban population growth, migration, and population redistribution were examined as they pertained to the socioeconomic development…

  6. Colonization, population growth, and nesting success of Black Oystercatchers following a seismic uplift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gill, V.A.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Lanctot, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    We present data on the colonization of Middleton Island, Alaska, by Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) following the creation of an extensive rocky intertidal zone after the Alaskan earthquake of 1964. The first pair of oystercatchers was detected in 1976, and it was another 5 years before the population increased to three pairs. Oystercatcher numbers increased steadily thereafter, with a population explosion occurring in the 1990s. By 2002, there were 171 territorial pairs on the island. The total number of birds increased from two in 1976 to 718 in 2002. Breeding-pair densities on Middleton Island are the highest recorded for any portion of Alaska, averaging more than 5 pairs per km of shoreline in 2002. Nesting success in 2001 and 2002 was greater (83% or more of the eggs laid hatched) than that reported for any other population of oystercatchers in Alaska or along the Pacific Coast. We attribute this exponential growth rate and exceptionally high reproductive success to the large area of available and suitable habitat, the low number of avian predators and the complete lack of mammalian predators, low rate of nest loss to high tides and storm surges, and a low level of human disturbance. We propose nominating Middleton Island as a regional Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network site because a high percentage of the world's and region's population of Black Oystercatchers resides there during the breeding season. Further, since Middleton Island may be the single most important site in Alaska for Black Oystercatchers, we suggest it be protected from future development.

  7. Density but not climate affects the population growth rate of guanacos ( Lama guanicoe) (Artiodactyla, Camelidae)

    PubMed Central

    Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the effects of population density and climatic variables on the rate of population growth in the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe), a wild camelid species in South America. We used a time series of 36 years (1977-2012) of population sampling in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Individuals were grouped in three age-classes: newborns, juveniles, and adults; for each year a female population transition matrix was constructed, and the population growth rate (?) was estimated for each year as the matrix highest positive eigenvalue. We applied a regression analysis with finite population growth rate (?) as dependent variable, and total guanaco population, sheep population, annual mean precipitation, and winter mean temperature as independent variables, with and without time lags. The effect of guanaco population size was statistically significant, but the effects of the sheep population and the climatic variables on guanaco population growth rate were not statistically significant. PMID:25187878

  8. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of the issues and increased divisiveness among environmentalists, feminists, and population control advocates. The current justification of US population program assistance is based on concern for the health of women and children. Future changes will be dependent on ideology, theology, and political philosophy. PMID:12346346

  9. The problem of population and growth: a review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth.

    PubMed

    Ehrlich, I; Lui, F

    1997-01-01

    This review traces the evolution of literature on population and economic growth through the main paradigms suggested to explain the observed covariation of per capita income and population levels (or their rates of growth) over time and space, and determine which public policies will improve the human condition. As the main paradigms evolved, key variables were progressively treated as endogenous (instead of exogenous) to the growth process. After the introduction, section 2 looks at the "classical model" of Malthusian population theory and its refinements. Section 3 identifies empirical data that bears on the secular and cross-sectional association between levels of rates of growth of population and per capita income. The inconsistency of these data with the classical model helps explain declining interest in this model over time and increased interest in a more systematic type of population and growth theory. The beginning of this new interest is traced in section 4 with a look at the "neo-classical growth model" and the reformulated theory of population, which was based on Becker's work on fertility behavior. The first line of inquiry branching from these theoretical works (section 5) treats population as an endogenous variable in static and dynamic settings. The second line of inquiry (section 6) analyzes population and growth within a unified model of growth and development. In section 7, recent studies of key policy issues (population control policies, mandatory social security schemes) are surveyed. The concluding section notes that contemporary research must face the challenge of providing additional insights into longevity as an aspect of economic growth and development and of developing a model of endogenous population and economic growth based on heterogeneous agents. PMID:12292267

  10. Metabolic Profiling and Flux Analysis of MEL-2 Human Embryonic Stem Cells during Exponential Growth at Physiological and Atmospheric Oxygen Concentrations

    PubMed Central

    Titmarsh, Drew; Krömer, Jens O.; Kao, Li-Pin; Nielsen, Lars; Wolvetang, Ernst; Cooper-White, Justin

    2014-01-01

    As human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) steadily progress towards regenerative medicine applications there is an increasing emphasis on the development of bioreactor platforms that enable expansion of these cells to clinically relevant numbers. Surprisingly little is known about the metabolic requirements of hESCs, precluding the rational design and optimisation of such platforms. In this study, we undertook an in-depth characterisation of MEL-2 hESC metabolic behaviour during the exponential growth phase, combining metabolic profiling and flux analysis tools at physiological (hypoxic) and atmospheric (normoxic) oxygen concentrations. To overcome variability in growth profiles and the problem of closing mass balances in a complex environment, we developed protocols to accurately measure uptake and production rates of metabolites, cell density, growth rate and biomass composition, and designed a metabolic flux analysis model for estimating internal rates. hESCs are commonly considered to be highly glycolytic with inactive or immature mitochondria, however, whilst the results of this study confirmed that glycolysis is indeed highly active, we show that at least in MEL-2 hESC, it is supported by the use of oxidative phosphorylation within the mitochondria utilising carbon sources, such as glutamine to maximise ATP production. Under both conditions, glycolysis was disconnected from the mitochondria with all of the glucose being converted to lactate. No difference in the growth rates of cells cultured under physiological or atmospheric oxygen concentrations was observed nor did this cause differences in fluxes through the majority of the internal metabolic pathways associated with biogenesis. These results suggest that hESCs display the conventional Warburg effect, with high aerobic activity despite high lactate production, challenging the idea of an anaerobic metabolism with low mitochondrial activity. The results of this study provide new insight that can be used in rational bioreactor design and in the development of novel culture media for hESC maintenance and expansion. PMID:25412279

  11. Pitcairn Island: fertility and population growth, 1790-1856.

    PubMed

    Refshauge, W F; Walsh, R J

    1981-01-01

    The hybrid English-Tahitian community which lived on Pitcairn Island between 1790 and 1856 exhibited a high population growth (3% overall). Unlike some other isolated groups, they did not live long lives (expectation of life at birth was 50.4 years overall for both sexes combined), but infant mortality, at 5.5% of births is lower than might have been expected. The level of marital fertility on Pitcairn was extremely high, higher even than for the Hutterites. Although births outside marriage were uncommon, brides were frequently pregnant at marriage. Age at first marriage changed markedly in response to changes in the community. There is some evidence that premarital sex became more frequent, possibly as an adjustment to Tahitian behavioural norms within the community's English religious ethic. PMID:7025745

  12. Normal and slow growth states of microbial populations in essential resource-based chemostat

    E-print Network

    Wang, Yi

    Normal and slow growth states of microbial populations in essential resource-based chemostat Yi variations in growth characteristics and the inherent heterogeneity of bacterial populations. China Abstract To mimic the striking capability of microbial culture for growth adap- tation after

  13. People of New Mexico: Size, Growth and Hispanic Population from the 1980 Census. Research Report 482.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, James D.

    New Mexico, while small, is a state of great diversity in terms of size, growth, and Hispanic concentration of population. Data from the 1980 census indicate New Mexico is the 37th largest state with slightly more than 1.3 million persons and is ninth among the states in percentage of population growth. Growth comes from two demographic sources:…

  14. Dynamics of Population and Economic Growth: A Computer-Based Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roh, Chaisung; Handler, Paul

    A computer-assisted instructional (CAI) program at the University of Illinois is used to teach the dynamics of population growth. Socio-economic models are also developed to show the consequences of population growth upon variables such as income, productivity, and the demand for food. A one-sex population projection model allows students to…

  15. Homage to Malthus, Ricardo, and Boserup: Toward a General Theory of Population, Economic Growth, Environmental

    E-print Network

    Richerson, Peter J.

    Homage to Malthus, Ricardo, and Boserup: Toward a General Theory of Population, Economic Growth@anthro.ucla.edu Abstract: The debates over the future of human population and the earth's environment, and similar large "macro" questions that motivated the three thinkers of our title. The long term rate of population growth

  16. Growth of geologic fractures into large-strain populations: review of nomenclature, subcritical crack growth, and some implications

    E-print Network

    Growth of geologic fractures into large-strain populations: review of nomenclature, subcritical crack growth, and some implications for rock engineering R.A. Schultz* Geomechanics-Rock Fracture Group tensile stress. This progressive fracture growth thus defeats predictions of fracture-set orientation

  17. Inferring Very Recent Population Growth Rate from Population-Scale Sequencing Data: Using a Large-Sample Coalescent Estimator.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hua; Hey, Jody; Chen, Kun

    2015-11-01

    Large-sample or population-level sequencing data provide unprecedented opportunities for inferring detailed population histories, especially recent demographic histories. On the other hand, it challenges most existing population genetic methods: Simulation-based approaches require intensive computation, and analytical approaches are often numerically intractable when the sample size is large. We propose a computationally efficient method for simultaneous estimation of population size, the rate, and onset time of population growth in the very recent history, using the pattern of the total number of segregating sites as a function of sample size. Coalescent simulation shows that it can accurately and efficiently estimate the parameters of recent population growth from large-scale data. This approach has the flexibility to model population history with multiple growth stages or other epochs, and it is robust when the sample size is very large or at the population scale, for which the Kingman's coalescent assumption is not valid. This approach is applied to recently published data and estimates the recent population growth rate in the European population to be 1.49% with the onset time 7.26 ka, and the rate in the African population to be 0.735% with the onset time 10.01 ka. PMID:26187437

  18. A Population Growth Trend Analysis for Neotricula aperta, the Snail Intermediate Host of Schistosoma mekongi, after Construction of the Pak-Mun Dam

    PubMed Central

    Attwood, Stephen W.; Upatham, E. Suchart

    2013-01-01

    Background The Pak-Mun dam is a controversial hydro-power project on the Mun River in Northeast Thailand. The dam is sited in a habitat of the freshwater snail Neotricula aperta, which is the intermediate host for the parasitic blood-fluke Schistosoma mekongi causing Mekong schistosomiasis in humans in Cambodia and Laos. Few data are available which can be used to assess the effects of water resource development on N. aperta. The aim of this study was to obtain data and to analyze the possible impact of the dam on N. aperta population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings Estimated population densities were recorded for an N. aperta population in the Mun River 27 km upstream of Pak-Mun, from 1990 to 2011. The Pak-Mul dam began to operate in 1994. Population growth was modeled using a linear mixed model expression of a modified Gompertz stochastic state-space exponential growth model. The N. aperta population was found to be quite stable, with the estimated growth parameter not significantly different from zero. Nevertheless, some marked changes in snail population density were observed which were coincident with changes in dam operation policy. Conclusions/Significance The study found that there has been no marked increase in N. aperta population growth following operation of the Pak-Mun dam. The analysis did indicate a large and statistically significant increase in population density immediately after the dam came into operation; however, this increase was not persistent. The study has provided the first vital baseline data on N. aperta population behavior near to the Pak-Mun dam and suggests that the operation policy of the dam may have an impact on snail population density. Nevertheless, additional studies are required for other N. aperta populations in the Mun River and for an extended time series, to confirm or refine the findings of this work. PMID:24244775

  19. An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, M.G.; Powell, L.A.; Hines, R.K.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

  20. Population growth "neutralizes" India's efforts to improve quality of life.

    PubMed

    1998-01-01

    With one of the world's oldest family welfare programs, direct interventions, and policy initiatives, India has managed to reduce its crude birth rate from 41.7/1000 in 1951-61 to 27.4/1000 today; the crude death rate and infant mortality rate have also fallen. However, despite these successes, efforts to improve the quality of life in India have been neutralized by population growth. Policies are therefore now targeted to the employment-oriented development of the rural infrastructure. The resulting interventions have led to a reduction in both rural and urban poverty. An holistic approach is being applied to poverty alleviation, including institutional reforms, capacity building, and asset creation through sustainable productive economic processes and the involvement of communities and nongovernmental organizations in family welfare initiatives, with emphasis upon population and health and special focus upon vulnerable sections. The problems of infants and the elderly must be addressed. A community needs assessment has been underway since April 1996 in the attempt to achieve decentralized participatory planning at the service provider's level. PMID:12294106

  1. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    PubMed

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives. PMID:12322589

  2. THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF POPULATION GROWTH TO SURVIVAL, GROWTH AND REPRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Matrix population models are often used to extrapolate from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to population-level effects. Demographic elasticity analysis of a matrix model allows an evaluation of the relative sensitivity of population growth rate ...

  3. New explicit expressions for relative frequencies of single-nucleotide polymorphisms with application to statistical inference on population growth.

    PubMed Central

    Polanski, A; Kimmel, M

    2003-01-01

    We present new methodology for calculating sampling distributions of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies in populations with time-varying size. Our approach is based on deriving analytical expressions for frequencies of SNPs. Analytical expressions allow for computations that are faster and more accurate than Monte Carlo simulations. In contrast to other articles showing analytical formulas for frequencies of SNPs, we derive expressions that contain coefficients that do not explode when the genealogy size increases. We also provide analytical formulas to describe the way in which the ascertainment procedure modifies SNP distributions. Using our methods, we study the power to test the hypothesis of exponential population expansion vs. the hypothesis of evolution with constant population size. We also analyze some of the available SNP data and we compare our results of demographic parameters estimation to those obtained in previous studies in population genetics. The analyzed data seem consistent with the hypothesis of past population growth of modern humans. The analysis of the data also shows a very strong sensitivity of estimated demographic parameters to changes of the model of the ascertainment procedure. PMID:14504247

  4. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 53 (2007) 213229 Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth

    E-print Network

    Laudal, Arnfinn

    2007-01-01

    and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints Geir B. Asheima , Wolfgang of population growth) savings rates, then population growth must be quasi-arithmetic and the path is a maximin utilitarianism (with constant elasticity of marginal utility) under quasi- arithmetic population growth

  5. Growth Kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes in Broth and Beef Frankfurters– Determination of Lag Phase Duration and Exponential Growth Rate under Isothermal Conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of this research was to develop a new kinetic model to describe the isothermal growth of microorganisms. The new model was tested with Listeria monocytogenes in broth and frankfurters, and compared with two commonly used models - Baranyi and modified Gompertz models. Bias factor (BF)...

  6. Population divergence in compensatory growth responses and their costs in sticklebacks

    PubMed Central

    Ab Ghani, Nurul Izza; Merilä, Juha

    2015-01-01

    Compensatory growth (CG) may be an adaptive mechanism that helps to restore an organisms’ growth trajectory and adult size from deviations caused by early life resource limitation. Yet, few studies have investigated the genetic basis of CG potential and existence of genetically based population differentiation in CG potential. We studied population differentiation, genetic basis, and costs of CG potential in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) differing in their normal growth patterns. As selection favors large body size in pond and small body size in marine populations, we expected CG to occur in the pond but not in the marine population. By manipulating feeding conditions (viz. high, low and recovery feeding treatments), we found clear evidence for CG in the pond but not in the marine population, as well as evidence for catch-up growth (i.e., size compensation without growth acceleration) in both populations. In the marine population, overcompensation occurred individuals from the recovery treatment grew eventually larger than those from the high feeding treatment. In both populations, the recovery feeding treatment reduced maturation probability. The recovery feeding treatment also reduced survival probability in the marine but not in the pond population. Analysis of interpopulation hybrids further suggested that both genetic and maternal effects contributed to the population differences in CG. Hence, apart from demonstrating intrinsic costs for recovery growth, both genetic and maternal effects were identified to be important modulators of CG responses. The results provide an evidence for adaptive differentiation in recovery growth potential. PMID:25628860

  7. Recognizing Exponential Growth. Classroom Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dobbs, David E.

    2004-01-01

    Two heuristic and three rigorous arguments are given for the fact that functions of the form Ce[kx], with C an arbitrary constant, are the only solutions of the equation dy/dx=ky where k is constant. Various of the proofs in this self-contained note could find classroom use in a first-year calculus course, an introductory course on differential…

  8. A stochastic model for population migration and the growth of human settlements during the Neolithic

    E-print Network

    Moss, David

    A stochastic model for population migration and the growth of human settlements during, Manchester M60 1QD, UK (Dated: June 12, 2008) We present a stochastic two-population model that describes the migration and growth of semi- sedentary foragers and sedentary farmers along a river valley during

  9. Stochastic model for population migration and the growth of human settlements during the Neolithic transition

    E-print Network

    Fedotov, Sergei

    Stochastic model for population migration and the growth of human settlements during the Neolithic; published 12 August 2008 We present a stochastic two-population model that describes the migration and growth of semisedentary foragers and sedentary farmers along a river valley during the Neolithic

  10. Contributions of vital rates to growth of a protected population of American black bears

    E-print Network

    Mitchell, Mike

    Contributions of vital rates to growth of a protected population of American black bears Michael S have evaluated such contributions of vital rates to l for American black bears (Ursus americanus). We rates to variation in growth rate (l) of a population of black bears inhabiting the Pisgah Bear

  11. StockRecruitment Dynamics and the Maximum Population Growth Rate of the Barndoor Skate on Georges Bank

    E-print Network

    Kuehl, Steven A.

    Stock­Recruitment Dynamics and the Maximum Population Growth Rate of the Barndoor Skate on Georges population dynamics: the relationship of recruitment to spawner abundance and the maximum population growth of the instantaneous maximum population growth rate of 0.37­0.38 per year. A second analysis was also conducted using

  12. Recent Population Growth and Change among Asian-Americans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vann, Barbara H.; Ryu, Jai P.

    Data from the 1990 Census and recent Current Population Survey reports are used to describe population change among Asian-Americans. Comparisons are made between Asian-Americans and the general non-Asian population and among Asian-Americans, focusing on four subgroups: Chinese, Filipinos, Japanese, and Koreans. Specific features examined in…

  13. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    PubMed

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism. PMID:26003308

  14. The Impact of Population Size on Code Growth in GP: Analysis and Empirical Validation

    E-print Network

    Poli, Riccardo

    The Impact of Population Size on Code Growth in GP: Analysis and Empirical Validation Riccardo Poli and simple, but it has some weaknesses: (1) it implicitly assumes that the population is large enough practical cases where this is not true, e.g., because the population is small); (2) it does not explain what

  15. Revised October 9, 2006 Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics and

    E-print Network

    Chen, Tsuhan

    Revised October 9, 2006 Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics Opening 08:30 to 08:40 hrs Tamara Fox, Program Officer, Population, The William and Flora Hewlett:50 to 09:20 hrs Eliya Zulu, Deputy Executive Director, African Population and Health Research Centre Chair

  16. Impacts of Hispanic Population Growth on Rural Wages. Agricultural Economic Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newman, Constance

    Although earnings generally increased in rural areas in the 1990s, Hispanic population growth led to lower wages for at least one segment of the rural population--workers with a high school degree (skilled workers), particularly men in this skill group. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Current Population Survey, this report…

  17. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    PubMed Central

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  18. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    PubMed

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  19. Effects of Climate Change on Plant Population Growth Rate and Community Composition Change

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots—Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)—that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Sln?, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change. PMID:26039073

  20. Dynamics of single-species population growth: stability or chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-01-01

    We have examined stability at the carrying capacity for 25 genetically different populations of Drosophila melanogaster. In spite of their genetic heterogeneity, 20 of the populations yield stable equilibria and none have eigenvalues significantly greater than one. Computer simulations demonstrate how selection at the individual level may account for population stability (and, hence, that group selection is not necessary for the evolution of stability). Recent theoretical studies on density-dependent selection in random environments provide predictions consistent with our empirical findings.

  1. A Photometer for Measuring Population Growth in Yeast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tatina, Robert; Hartley, Tamela; Thomas, Danita

    1999-01-01

    Describes the construction and use of an inexpensive, portable photometer designed specifically for estimating population sizes in yeast cultures. Suggests activities for use with the photometer. (WRM)

  2. Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

    This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

  3. Resources and Population Alan R. Rogers

    E-print Network

    Rogers, Alan R.

    the fundamental principles of popu- lation growth: the exponential increase of unregulated populations, various, the world population would double ten times and there would be over a thousand humans for each human alive today-- over 5 trillion in all. It seems unlikely that this can happen. As a population increases

  4. Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio: a periodic two-sex model approach.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2010-06-01

    We present a new approach to modeling two-sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two-sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency-dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two-sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment. PMID:20408757

  5. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min

    2012-11-01

    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (?) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 ?g L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on ? was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants. PMID:22851126

  6. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Christopher N.; Brook, Barry W.

    2011-01-01

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene. PMID:21561972

  7. Mathematical and numerical comparisons of five single-population growth models.

    PubMed

    Mickens, Ronald E

    2016-12-01

    We investigate the properties of five mathematical models used to represent the growth of a single population. By imposing a common set of (normalizing) initial conditions, we are able to calculate and explicitly compare the time intervals required to reach specific values of population levels. Based on these results, we conclude that one must be careful when applying these models to interpret the dynamics of single-population growth. An additional implication is that they provide evidence that such caution should also be extended to the incorporation of these models into the formulation of interacting, multi-population models, which are used, for example, to study the spread of disease. PMID:26606947

  8. Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms.

    PubMed Central

    Hudson, Peter J; Dobson, Andy P; Cattadori, Isabella M; Newborn, David; Haydon, Dan T; Shaw, Darren J; Benton, Tim G; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2002-01-01

    While the concept of population growth rate has been of central importance in the development of the theory of population dynamics, few empirical studies consider the intrinsic growth rate in detail, let alone how it may vary within and between populations of the same species. In an attempt to link theory with data we take two approaches. First, we address the question 'what growth rate patterns does theory predict we should see in time-series?' The models make a number of predictions, which in general are supported by a comparative study between time-series of harvesting data from 352 red grouse populations. Variations in growth rate between grouse populations were associated with factors that reflected the quality and availability of the main food plant of the grouse. However, while these results support predictions from theory, they provide no clear insight into the mechanisms influencing reductions in population growth rate and regulation. In the second part of the paper, we consider the results of experiments, first at the individual level and then at the population level, to identify the important mechanisms influencing changes in individual productivity and population growth rate. The parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis is found to have an important influence on productivity, and when incorporated into models with their patterns of distribution between individuals has a destabilizing effect and generates negative growth rates. The hypothesis that negative growth rates at the population level were caused by parasites was demonstrated by a replicated population level experiment. With a sound and tested model framework we then explore the interaction with other natural enemies and show that in general they tend to stabilize variations in growth rate. Interestingly, the models show selective predators that remove heavily infected individuals can release the grouse from parasite-induced regulation and allow equilibrium populations to rise. By contrast, a tick-borne virus that killed chicks simply leads to a reduction in the equilibrium. When humans take grouse they do not appear to stabilize populations and this may be because many of the infective stages are available for infection before harvesting commences. In our opinion, an understanding of growth rates and population dynamics is best achieved through a mechanistic approach that includes a sound experimental approach with the development of models. Models can be tested further to explore how the community of predators and others interact with their prey. PMID:12396517

  9. The influence of prey consumption and demographic stochasticity on population growth rate of Isle Royale wolves Canis lupus

    E-print Network

    The influence of prey consumption and demographic stochasticity on population growth rate of Isle. The influence of prey consumption and demographic stochasticity on population growth rate of Isle Royale wolves population growth is a fundamental aspect of predation, yet it is rarely measured for vertebrate predators

  10. Fish growth and degree-days II: selecting a base temperature for an among-population study

    E-print Network

    Venturelli, Paul

    ARTICLE Fish growth and degree-days II: selecting a base temperature for an among-population study in temperature-corrected growth rates among populations. These differences increase with the error that differences in temperature-corrected growth rates among populations can be a statistical artifact rather than

  11. Linking the Population Growth Rate and the Age-at-Death Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Schindler, Susanne; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Coulson, Tim

    2013-01-01

    The population growth rate is linked to the distribution of age at death. We demonstrate that this link arises because both the birth and death rates depend on the variance of age-at-death. This bears the prospect to separate the influences of the age patterns of fertility and mortality on population growth rate. Here, we show how the age pattern of death affects population growth. Using this insight we derive a new approximation of the population growth rate that uses the first and second moments of the age-at-death distribution. We apply our new approximation to 46 mammalian life tables (including humans) and show that it is on par with the most prominent other approximations. PMID:23103877

  12. Age, Growth, and Population Dynamics of Common Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) Along Coastal Texas 

    E-print Network

    Neuenhoff, Rachel Dawn

    2010-10-12

    of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August 2009 Major Subject: Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences AGE, GROWTH, AND POPULATION DYNAMICS OF COMMON BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS (Tursiops truncatus) ALONG COASTAL TEXAS A Thesis... Members, Bernd W?rsig Antonietta Quigg Head of Department, Thomas Lacher August 2009 Major Subject: Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences iii ABSTRACT Age, Growth, and Population Dynamics of Common Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus...

  13. Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird Debora Arlt*, Par Forslund, Tobias Jeppsson, Tomas Part

    E-print Network

    Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird Debora Arlt*, Pa¨r Forslund, Tobias Jeppsson of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern

  14. [Age structure and growth pattern of Polytrichum juniperum populations in a mire of Changbai Mountains].

    PubMed

    Bu, Zhaojun; Yan, Yunfei; Dai, Dan; Wang, Xianwei

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the age structure and growth pattern of two Polytrichum juniperum populations with and without sporophytes in Hani mire of Changbai Mountains were studied by 'innate annual marker' method. The ramets of both populations were composed of 6 age classes, and their quantity and biomass showed a declining age structure, which was more obvious in the sporophyte produced population. No significant difference of biomass was found (P > 0.05) between the two populations. The dry material accumulation of the ramets in both populations increased with aging, and showed similar patterns of linear function. The ramets mean height of sporophyte-produced population was 6.17% shorter (P < 0.05) than the another, because sporophyte production limited the height growth. The ramets mean height also increased with aging, and showed similar patterns of linear function. In non-sporophyte produced population, the variation coefficient of ramets height was only 2.44%, which indicated the significance of similar height for ramets survival. In sporophyte produced population, the variation coefficient of ramets height was 25.07%, while that of ramets biomass was 8.25%, suggesting the significance of similar biomass to the reproduction of population. The biomass of ramets had a significantly positive correlation with height in both populations (P < 0.001), and no allometric growth was showed. PMID:15852955

  15. Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Theory of a microfluidic serial dilution bioreactor for growth of planktonic and biofilm populations

    E-print Network

    Hsu, Sze-Bi

    Theory of a microfluidic serial dilution bioreactor for growth of planktonic and biofilm populations Sze-Bi Hsu and Ya-Tang Yang Abstract We present the theory of a microfluidic bioreactor with a two-compartment growth chamber and periodic serial dilution. In the model, coexisting plank- tonic and biofilm

  17. Rural Renaissance in America? The Revival of Population Growth in Remote Areas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Peter A.; Wheeler, Judith P.

    Presenting narrative and tabular documentation of the revival of population growth in remote, rural areas and the decline of growth in urban areas, this bulletin describes the characteristics of these shifts, considers their possible causes, and suggests some of the problems and potential benefits. Specifically, this report presents the following:…

  18. Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) predates human agricultural activity

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals) and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene. PMID:21457563

  19. SUITABILITY OF SELECTED CROPS AND SOIL FOR GARDEN SYMPHYLAN (SYMPHYLA, SCUTIGERELLIDAE: SCUTIGERELLA IMMACULATA NEWPORT) POPULATION GROWTH

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The suitability of selected crops and soil for garden symphylan (Scutigerella immaculata Newport) population growth was studied in the laboratory and field. In the laboratory, we measured the population increase of S. immaculata after 8 w from a starting density of 35 in pots of spinach (Spinacia o...

  20. SUBLETHAL NARCOSIS AND POPULATION PERSISTENCE: A MODELING STUDY ON GROWTH EFFECTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study of a Daphnia population model suggests that sublethal effects of nonpolar narcotics on growth of individual organisms can result in ultimate extinction of the population at chronic chemical concentrations near the effect concentration that leads to a 50% reduction in i...

  1. Population Growth and Economic Development: Lessons from Selected Asian Countries. Policy Development Studies, Number 10.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Andrew; And Others

    The major findings of a research project on the relationship between population growth and economic development are summarized in this monograph. The study compares recent demographic and economic trends in Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia to worldwide experience as described by an econometric model of population and development. The study…

  2. Student-Teacher Population Growth Model. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zabrowski, Edward K.; And Others

    This mathematical model of the educational system calculates information on population groups by sex, race, age, and educational level. The model can be used to answer questions about what would happen to the flows of students and teachers through the formal educational system if these flows are changed at various stages. The report discusses the…

  3. The Between-Population Genetic Architecture of Growth, Maturation, and Plasticity in Atlantic Salmon

    PubMed Central

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding. PMID:24473933

  4. Flower Power: Sunflowers as a Model for Logistic Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernandez, Eileen; Geist, Kristi A.

    2011-01-01

    Logistic growth displays an interesting pattern: It starts fast, exhibiting the rapid growth characteristic of exponential models. As time passes, it slows in response to constraints such as limited resources or reallocation of energy. The growth continues to slow until it reaches a limit, called capacity. When the growth describes a population,…

  5. The almost-sure population growth rate in branching Brownian motion with a quadratic breeding potential

    E-print Network

    Berestycki, J; Harris, J W; Harris, S C

    2009-01-01

    In this note we consider a branching Brownian motion (BBM) on $\\mathbb{R}$ in which a particle at spatial position $y$ splits into two at rate $\\beta y^2$, where $\\beta>0$ is a constant. This is a critical breeding rate for BBM in the sense that the expected population size blows up in finite time while the population size remains finite, almost surely, for all time. We find an asymptotic for the almost sure rate of growth of the population.

  6. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  7. Multidimensional nature of posttraumatic growth in an Australian population.

    PubMed

    Morris, Bronwyn A; Shakespeare-Finch, Jane; Rieck, Murray; Newbery, Jasmin

    2005-10-01

    Recent trauma literature has supported a philosophical shift from a pathogenic to a salutogenic paradigm in which the focus is on positive, as well as negative, posttrauma changes; however, empirical knowledge exploring the different domains of positive change or posttraumatic growth (PTG) is scarce. The present study investigated the multidimensionality of PTG in Australian undergraduate students (N = 219). Results indicated five factors for the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory, and moderate levels of PTG. Trauma severity was found to significantly predict PTG in addition to a positive correlation between PTG and negative posttrauma effects. While not negating negative effects of traumatic experiences, this area of traumatology research has important implications for redefining the "victims" of trauma as individuals capable of positive change rather than merely surviving. PMID:16281257

  8. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    PubMed Central

    Tajul, M. I.; Alam, M. M.; Hossain, S. M. M.; Naher, K.; Rafii, M. Y.; Latif, M. A.

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000?plants ha?1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25?cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220?kg?ha?1) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000?ha?1 receiving 220?kg?N?ha?1, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220?kg?N?ha?1). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180?kg?N?ha?1 with 80,000?plants?ha?1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob?1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03?t?ha?1) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments. PMID:24163615

  9. Review of "Going Exponential: Growing the Charter School Sector's Best"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia, David

    2011-01-01

    This Progressive Policy Institute report argues that charter schools should be expanded rapidly and exponentially. Citing exponential growth organizations, such as Starbucks and Apple, as well as the rapid growth of molds, viruses and cancers, the report advocates for similar growth models for charter schools. However, there is no explanation of…

  10. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  11. Slow protein fluctuations explain the emergence of growth phenotypes and persistence in clonal bacterial populations

    E-print Network

    Andrea Rocco; Andrzej M. Kierzek; Johnjoe McFadden

    2013-10-31

    One of the most challenging problems in microbiology is to understand how a small fraction of microbes that resists killing by antibiotics can emerge in a population of genetically identical cells, the phenomenon known as persistence or drug tolerance. Its characteristic signature is the biphasic kill curve, whereby microbes exposed to a bactericidal agent are initially killed very rapidly but then much more slowly. Here we relate this problem to the more general problem of understanding the emergence of distinct growth phenotypes in clonal populations. We address the problem mathematically by adopting the framework of the phenomenon of so-called weak ergodicity breaking, well known in dynamical physical systems, which we extend to the biological context. We show analytically and by direct stochastic simulations that distinct growth phenotypes can emerge as a consequence of slow-down of stochastic fluctuations in the expression of a gene controlling growth rate. In the regime of fast gene transcription, the system is ergodic, the growth rate distribution is unimodal, and accounts for one phenotype only. In contrast, at slow transcription and fast translation, weakly non-ergodic components emerge, the population distribution of growth rates becomes bimodal, and two distinct growth phenotypes are identified. When coupled to the well-established growth rate dependence of antibiotic killing, this model describes the observed fast and slow killing phases, and reproduces much of the phenomenology of bacterial persistence. The model has major implications for efforts to develop control strategies for persistent infections.

  12. Slow Protein Fluctuations Explain the Emergence of Growth Phenotypes and Persistence in Clonal Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Rocco, Andrea; Kierzek, Andrzej M.; McFadden, Johnjoe

    2013-01-01

    One of the most challenging problems in microbiology is to understand how a small fraction of microbes that resists killing by antibiotics can emerge in a population of genetically identical cells, the phenomenon known as persistence or drug tolerance. Its characteristic signature is the biphasic kill curve, whereby microbes exposed to a bactericidal agent are initially killed very rapidly but then much more slowly. Here we relate this problem to the more general problem of understanding the emergence of distinct growth phenotypes in clonal populations. We address the problem mathematically by adopting the framework of the phenomenon of so-called weak ergodicity breaking, well known in dynamical physical systems, which we extend to the biological context. We show analytically and by direct stochastic simulations that distinct growth phenotypes can emerge as a consequence of slow-down of stochastic fluctuations in the expression of a gene controlling growth rate. In the regime of fast gene transcription, the system is ergodic, the growth rate distribution is unimodal, and accounts for one phenotype only. In contrast, at slow transcription and fast translation, weakly non-ergodic components emerge, the population distribution of growth rates becomes bimodal, and two distinct growth phenotypes are identified. When coupled to the well-established growth rate dependence of antibiotic killing, this model describes the observed fast and slow killing phases, and reproduces much of the phenomenology of bacterial persistence. The model has major implications for efforts to develop control strategies for persistent infections. PMID:23382887

  13. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  14. Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population.

    PubMed

    Rolland, V; Nevoux, M; Barbraud, C; Weimerskirch, H

    2009-07-01

    Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing effort stops, the population would increase at 3.5% per year, suggesting that bycatch mortality probably currently limits the Black-browed Albatross population at Kerguelen. Our study shows how this type of model could be useful to predict trajectories of top predator populations, and eventually lower trophic web levels, in relation to climatic projections and future human activities. We highlight the need to reinforce mitigation measures. PMID:19688939

  15. Population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky. L. brunnea did not survive at 43% RH, while populations increased from 22.5-32.5°C and 55 -75% RH. Interestingly, we found L. brunnea population growth ...

  16. Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data.

    PubMed

    Leites, Laura P; Robinson, Andrew P; Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Marshall, John D; Crookston, Nicholas L

    2012-01-01

    Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach, we describe three-year height (HT) growth response to changes in climate of interior Douglas-fir populations. We incorporate climate information at the population level, yielding a model that is specific to both species and population. We use data from provenance tests from previous studies that comprised 236 populations from Idaho, Montana, and eastern Washington, USA. The most sensitive indicator of climate was the mean temperature of the coldest month. Population maximum HT and HT growth response to changes in climate were dependent on seed source climate. All populations had optimum HT growth when transferred to climates with warmer winters; those originating in sites with the warmest winters were taller across sites and had highest HT growth at transfer distances closest to zero; those from colder climates were shortest and had optimum HT growth when transferred the farthest. Although this differential response damped the height growth differences among populations, cold-climate populations still achieved their maximum growth at lower temperatures than warm-climate populations. The results highlight the relevance of understanding climate change impacts at the population level, particularly in a species with ample genetic variation among populations. PMID:22471081

  17. Toxicology across scales: Cell population growth in vitro predicts reduced fish growth

    PubMed Central

    Stadnicka-Michalak, Julita; Schirmer, Kristin; Ashauer, Roman

    2015-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is essential but often relies on ethically controversial and expensive methods. We show that tests using cell cultures, combined with modeling of toxicological effects, can replace tests with juvenile fish. Hundreds of thousands of fish at this developmental stage are annually used to assess the influence of chemicals on growth. Juveniles are more sensitive than adult fish, and their growth can affect their chances to survive and reproduce. Thus, to reduce the number of fish used for such tests, we propose a method that can quantitatively predict chemical impact on fish growth based on in vitro data. Our model predicts reduced fish growth in two fish species in excellent agreement with measured in vivo data of two pesticides. This promising step toward alternatives to fish toxicity testing is simple, inexpensive, and fast and only requires in vitro data for model calibration. PMID:26601229

  18. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in tur

  19. Sexual Reproduction in a Simple Growth Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Carlos Gentil Oro; Santos, Marcio

    2012-05-01

    One of the most important characteristics in the survival of a species is related to the kind of reproduction responsible for the offspring generation. However, only in the last years the role played by sexual reproduction has been investigated. Then, for a better understanding of this kind of process we introduce, in this work, a surface reaction model that describes the role of the sexual reproduction. In our model two different elements of the species, representing male and female, can interact to reproduce a new element. The sex of this new element is chosen with a given probability and in order to take into account the mortality rate we introduce another kind of individual. The value of the spatial density of this element remains constant during the time evolution of the system. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and mean field approximation. Depending on the values of the control parameters of the model, the system can attain two stationary states: In one of them the population survives and in the other it can be extinguished. Besides, accordingly to our results, the phase diagram of the model shows a discontinuous transition between these two states.

  20. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  1. On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-09-01

    The growth dynamics of complex organizations have attracted much interest of econophysicists and sociophysicists in recent years. However, most of the studies are done for developed countries. We investigate the growth dynamics of the primary industry and the population of 2079 counties in mainland China using the data from the China County Statistical Yearbooks from 2000 to 2006. We find that the annual growth rates are distributed according to Student’s t distribution with the tail exponent less than 2. We find power-law relationships between the sample standard deviation of the growth rates and the initial size. The scaling exponent is less than 0.5 for the primary industry and close to 0.5 for the population.

  2. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure. PMID:26338267

  3. Role of prey and intraspecific density dependence on the population growth of an avian top predator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez-de-Simon, Javier; Díaz-Ruiz, Francisco; Cirilli, Francesca; Tortosa, Francisco S.; Villafuerte, Rafael; Ferreras, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    Exploring predator-prey systems in diverse ecosystems increases our knowledge about ecological processes. Predator population growth may be positive when conspecific density is low but predators also need areas with prey availability, associated with competition, which increases the risk of suffering losses but stabilises populations. We studied relationships between European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus (prey) and adult eagle owls Bubo bubo (predators) in south-western Europe. We assessed models explaining the predator population growth and stability. We estimated the abundance of rabbits and adult eagle owls during three years in eight localities of central-southern Spain. We explored models including rabbit and adult eagle owl abundance, accounting for yearly variations and including the locality as a random variable. We found that population growth of adult eagle owls was positive in situations with low conspecific abundance and tended to be negative but approaching equilibrium in situations of higher conspecific abundance. Population growth was also positively related to previous summer rabbit density when taking into account eagle owl conspecific abundance, possibly indicating that rabbits may support recruitment. Furthermore, abundance stability of adult eagle owls was positively related to previous winter-spring rabbit density, which could suggest predator population stabilisation through quick territory occupation in high-quality areas. These results exemplify the trade-off between prey availability and abundance of adult predators related to population growth and abundance stability in the eagle owl-rabbit system in south-western Europe. Despite rabbits have greatly declined during the last decades and eagle owls locally specialise on them, eagle owls currently have a favourable conservation status. As eagle owls are the only nocturnal raptor with such dependence on rabbits, this could point out that predators may overcome prey decreases in areas with favourable climate and prey in the absence of superior competitors with similar foraging mode.

  4. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  5. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  6. Neutral genomic regions refine models of recent rapid human population growth

    PubMed Central

    Gazave, Elodie; Ma, Li; Chang, Diana; Coventry, Alex; Gao, Feng; Muzny, Donna; Boerwinkle, Eric; Gibbs, Richard A.; Sing, Charles F.; Clark, Andrew G.; Keinan, Alon

    2014-01-01

    Human populations have experienced dramatic growth since the Neolithic revolution. Recent studies that sequenced a very large number of individuals observed an extreme excess of rare variants and provided clear evidence of recent rapid growth in effective population size, although estimates have varied greatly among studies. All these studies were based on protein-coding genes, in which variants are also impacted by natural selection. In this study, we introduce targeted sequencing data for studying recent human history with minimal confounding by natural selection. We sequenced loci far from genes that meet a wide array of additional criteria such that mutations in these loci are putatively neutral. As population structure also skews allele frequencies, we sequenced 500 individuals of relatively homogeneous ancestry by first analyzing the population structure of 9,716 European Americans. We used very high coverage sequencing to reliably call rare variants and fit an extensive array of models of recent European demographic history to the site frequency spectrum. The best-fit model estimates ?3.4% growth per generation during the last ?140 generations, resulting in a population size increase of two orders of magnitude. This model fits the data very well, largely due to our observation that assumptions of more ancient demography can impact estimates of recent growth. This observation and results also shed light on the discrepancy in demographic estimates among recent studies. PMID:24379384

  7. Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

    2001-01-01

    In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

  8. Economic analysis of population growth in the Islamic world with special reference to Egypt.

    PubMed

    Oweiss, I M

    1988-01-01

    Population growth in predominantly Islamic countries is explored, with a focus on Egypt. The author finds that "if its current rate of increase continues...Egypt's population will increase by an average of one and a half million a year requiring food, housing, education, health services, and other needs." The case is made for the immediate implementation of an effective family planning program. PMID:12316113

  9. EFFECT OF FLUID SHEAR AND IRRADIANCE ON POPULATION GROWTH AND CELLULAR TOXIN CONTENT OF THE DINOFLAGELLATE ALEXANDRIUM FUNDYENSE.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential for in situ turbulence to inhibit dinoflagellate population growth has been demonstrated by experimentally exposing dinoflagellate cultures to quantified shear flow. However, despite interest in understanding environmental factors that affect the growth of toxic din...

  10. Growth rates of the population in a branching Brownian motion with an inhomogeneous breeding potential

    E-print Network

    Berestycki, Julien; Harris, John W; Harris, Simon C; Roberts, Matthew I

    2012-01-01

    We consider a branching particle system where each particle moves as an independent Brownian motion and breeds at a rate proportional to its distance from the origin raised to the power $p$, for $p\\in[0,2)$. The asymptotic behaviour of the right-most particle for this system is already known; in this article we give large deviations probabilities for particles following "difficult" paths, growth rates along "easy" paths, the total population growth rate, and we derive the optimal paths which particles must follow to achieve this growth rate.

  11. How exponential are FREDs?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Bradley E.; Dyson, Samuel E.

    1996-08-01

    A common Gamma-Ray Burst-light curve shape is the ``FRED'' or ``fast-rise exponential-decay.'' But how exponential is the tail? Are they merely decaying with some smoothly decreasing decline rate, or is the functional form an exponential to within the uncertainties? If the shape really is an exponential, then it would be reasonable to assign some physically significant time scale to the burst. That is, there would have to be some specific mechanism that produces the characteristic decay profile. So if an exponential is found, then we will know that the decay light curve profile is governed by one mechanism (at least for simple FREDs) instead of by complex/multiple mechanisms. As such, a specific number amenable to theory can be derived for each FRED. We report on the fitting of exponentials (and two other shapes) to the tails of ten bright BATSE bursts. The BATSE trigger numbers are 105, 257, 451, 907, 1406, 1578, 1883, 1885, 1989, and 2193. Our technique was to perform a least square fit to the tail from some time after peak until the light curve approaches background. We find that most FREDs are not exponentials, although a few come close. But since the other candidate shapes come close just as often, we conclude that the FREDs are misnamed.

  12. Comparison of native and introduced flathead catfish populations in Alabama and Georgia: Growth, mortality, and management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.; Jolley, J.C.; Harrison, D.

    2006-01-01

    We compared growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris from two native populations in Alabama (Coosa and Tallapoosa rivers) and two introduced populations in Georgia (Ocmulgee and Satilla rivers). We also compared mortality rates and potential outcomes of various management regimes (minimum length limits [MLLs]) among the populations. Total length-log10(age) regression slopes for introduced fish were higher than those for native fish, and von Bertalanffy growth coefficients (K) were greater for introduced fish (Ocmulgee: 0.195; Satilla: 0.201) than for native individuals (Coosa: 0.057; Tallapoosa: 0.059). Therefore, introduced flathead catfish grew more rapidly than those in their native range. Mortality (instantaneous mortality rate, Z) was higher in the Satilla River population (Z = -0.602) than in the Ocmulgee River (Z = -0.227) and Coosa River (Z = -0.156) populations. However, fish in the Satilla River population had been introduced for only 10 years and presumably did not reach their theoretical maximum age, potentially biasing the mortality estimate for that population. Simulation of management regimes in Fishery Analyses and Simulation Tools software predicted that maximum biomass of flathead catfish in the Ocmulgee (1,668 kg) and Satilla (1,137 kg) rivers was substantially larger than that in the Coosa (873 kg) and Tallapoosa (768 kg) populations. However, increased exploitation rates in the Ocmulgee and Satilla River populations resulted in dramatic declines in overall biomass, especially at lower MLLs (254 and 356 mm, respectively). Therefore, in systems where introduced flathead catfish represent an important recreational fishery but have dramatically reduced the abundance of native fishes through predation, minimal protection is recommended. We contend that rapid growth of introduced flathead catfish has major implications for their management and the conservation of native fishes. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  13. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n?=?28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n?=?56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  14. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed Central

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-01-01

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  15. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in which to…

  16. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  17. Population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus at constant temperatures and relative humidities

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus Enderlein. Part of this study assessed the effects of marking psocids using methylene blue, chalk powder, and fluorescent powder to differentiate nymphal stages d...

  18. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  19. Global Population Growth: 21st Century Challenges. Headline Series No. 302.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moffett, George D.

    This booklet examines the highly complex and highly nuanced subject of population growth and its consequences. The subject is controversial because it lies at the intersection of so many different disciplines. The primary purpose of the book is to define the large measure of common ground that exists among experts with respect to two critical…

  20. EXPERIMENTAL MANIPULATION OF POPULATION DENSITY AND ITS EFFECTS ON GROWTH AND MORTALITY OF JUVENILE

    E-print Network

    EXPERIMENTAL MANIPULATION OF POPULATION DENSITY AND ITS EFFECTS ON GROWTH AND MORTALITY OF JUVENILE ABSTRACT A density manipulation experiment was conducted at Seven Mile Beach, Western Australia. to compare to emigration of tagged individuals to other reefs. The difficulties of conducting manipulation experiments

  1. RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats

    E-print Network

    Russell, Amy L.

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis and Gary F McCracken5 Abstract Background: Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether

  2. Survival, Recruitment, and Population Growth Rate of an Important Mesopredator: The Northern Raccoon

    E-print Network

    Oli, Madan K.

    Raccoon Elizabeth M. Troyer1,2 *, Susan E. Cameron Devitt2 , Melvin E. Sunquist2 , Varun R. Goswami1 raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and .6 years of monthly capture is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons

  3. EFFECTS OF CADMIUM ON THE POPULATION GROWTH OF A BENTHIC INVERTEBRATE AEOLOSOMA HEADLEYI (OLIGOCHAETA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    A chronic toxicity test using population growth of an aquatic oligochaete, Aeolosoma headleyi, was evaluated for usefulness in determining the hazard of chronic exposures to cadmium. Tests were conducted in artificial hard water (180 mg/L hardness) and dechlorinated tap water (60...

  4. GROWTH RATES AND PREVALENCE OF PERKINSUS MARINUS PREVALENCE IN RESTORED OYSTER POPULATIONS IN MARYLAND

    E-print Network

    Paynter, Kennedy T.

    GROWTH RATES AND PREVALENCE OF PERKINSUS MARINUS PREVALENCE IN RESTORED OYSTER POPULATIONS, Solomons, MD 20688; 2 Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742; 3 Oyster-produced juvenile oysters have been planted on numerous natural oyster bars in Maryland in an effort to restore

  5. Clustering of exponentially separating trajectories

    E-print Network

    M. Wilkinson; B. Mehlig; K. Gustavsson; E. Werner

    2010-01-16

    It might be expected that trajectories for a dynamical system which has no negative Lyapunov exponent (implying exponential growth of small separations will not cluster together. However, clustering can occur such that the density $\\rho(\\Delta x)$ of trajectories within distance $\\Delta x$ of a reference trajectory has a power-law divergence, so that $\\rho(\\Delta x)\\sim \\Delta x^{-\\beta}$ when $\\Delta x$ is sufficiently small, for some $0<\\beta<1$. We demonstrate this effect using a random map in one dimension. We find no evidence for this effect in the chaotic logistic map, and argue that the effect is harder to observe in deterministic maps.

  6. Association with pathogenic bacteria affects life-history traits and population growth in Caenorhabditis elegans

    PubMed Central

    Diaz, S Anaid; Mooring, Eric Q; Rens, Elisabeth G; Restif, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Determining the relationship between individual life-history traits and population dynamics is an essential step to understand and predict natural selection. Model organisms that can be conveniently studied experimentally at both levels are invaluable to test the rich body of theoretical literature in this area. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, despite being a well-established workhorse in genetics, has only recently received attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists, especially with respect to its association with pathogenic bacteria. In order to start filling the gap between the two areas, we conducted a series of experiments aiming at measuring life-history traits as well as population growth of C. elegans in response to three different bacterial strains: Escherichia coli OP50, Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1. Whereas previous studies had established that the latter two reduced the survival of nematodes feeding on them compared to E. coli OP50, we report for the first time an enhancement in reproductive success and population growth for worms feeding on S. enterica Typhimurium. Furthermore, we used an age-specific population dynamic model, parameterized using individual life-history assays, to successfully predict the growth of populations over three generations. This study paves the way for more detailed and quantitative experimental investigation of the ecology and evolution of C. elegans and the bacteria it interacts with, which could improve our understanding of the fate of opportunistic pathogens in the environment. PMID:25937908

  7. An Unusual Exponential Graph

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Syed, M. Qasim; Lovatt, Ian

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an addition to the series of papers on the exponential function begun by Albert Bartlett. In particular, we ask how the graph of the exponential function y = e[superscript -t/t] would appear if y were plotted versus ln t rather than the normal practice of plotting ln y versus t. In answering this question, we find a new way to…

  8. An Unusual Exponential Graph

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syed, M. Qasim; Lovatt, Ian

    2014-05-01

    This paper is an addition to the series of papers on the exponential function begun by Albert Bartlett. In particular, we ask how the graph of the exponential function y =e-t/? would appear if y were plotted versus ln t rather than the normal practice of plotting ln y versus t. In answering this question, we find a new way to interpret the mean life (or time constant) ? using such a linear-log graph.

  9. Population growth of Nassella trichotoma in grasslands in New Zealand slower today than in the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamoureaux, Shona L.; Bourdôt, Graeme W.; Saville, David J.

    2011-09-01

    Nassella trichotoma established in modified tussock-grasslands in New Zealand from about 1860. Management programmes since 1946 have reduced populations to levels no longer impacting pastoral production. Optimising future management requires knowledge of the trajectory of population growth and its regulating demographic processes. To that end, four long-term field experiments were conducted. Net reproductive rate varied from 1.021 to 1.237 year -1 and growth in plant basal diameter from 8.1 to 16.6 mm year -1. The probability of flowering increased with basal diameter and was essentially unity above 50 mm diameter. Populations grubbed annually declined abruptly but recruitment was unaffected and extinction did not occur. Of seeds sown into disturbed and intact pastures, 0-51% produced seedlings and more arose on sunny slopes and from disturbed than intact pasture. Death rates were high; 7 years after sowing, surviving plants represented only 0-9% of the seed sown. Seeds buried 25 mm deep in the pasture litter on two occasions declined in viability at rates of 74 and 89% in the first year and first three months respectively and 26 and 0% year -1 thereafter. Seed production plant -1 (square root scale) increased linearly with plant basal diameter; for example, plants of 11 and 100 mm diameter are predicted to produce 0 and 11,092 spikelets (each with one seed) respectively. We estimate that a N. trichotoma population today will, in the absence of management, take 210 years to increase to 90% of its carrying capacity supporting the hypothesis that population growth in this species is slower than occurred historically. We show that the rates of some demographic processes may be much lower than in the past and suggest this is due to more competitive vegetation resulting from improved management. The size-dependence of many processes supports the need for a size-structured model to explain population growth in this weed.

  10. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    PubMed

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population. PMID:12264765

  11. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal. PMID:26078856

  12. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate.

    PubMed

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-06-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal. PMID:26078856

  13. Cell Growth and Size Homeostasis in Silico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yucheng; Zhu, Tianqi

    2014-03-01

    Cell growth in size is a complex process coordinated by intrinsic and environmental signals. In a recent work [Tzur et al., Science, 2009, 325:167-171], size distributions in an exponentially growing population of mammalian cells were used to infer the growth rate in size. The results suggest that cell growth is neither linear nor exponential, but subject to size-dependent regulation. To explain their data, we build a model in which the cell growth rate is controlled by the relative amount of mRNA and ribosomes in a cell. Plus a stochastic division rule, the evolutionary process of a population of cells can be simulated and the statistics of the in-silico population agree well with the experimental data. To further explore the model space, alternative growth models and division rules are studied. This work may serve as a starting point for us to understand the rational behind cell growth and size regulation using predictive models.

  14. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  15. Population Growth in New Hampshire during the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Studies in New England Geography, Number 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobart, Christine L.

    This paper traces the shifts in New Hampshire's state and county population during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, focusing on the growth of urban centers and industry. From 1790 to 1840 most of New Hampshire's population growth was agricultural despite the beginnings of industrialization and urbanization. These processes greatly…

  16. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

    PubMed

    Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

    2013-11-01

    1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. 0.1°C per year). The Euler-Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in rm when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on rm may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time-scales and under slow warming regimes. PMID:23926903

  17. Native insect herbivory limits population growth rate of a non-native thistle.

    PubMed

    Eckberg, James O; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Louda, Svata M

    2014-05-01

    The influence of native fauna on non-native plant population growth, size, and distribution is not well documented. Previous studies have shown that native insects associated with tall thistle (Cirsium altissimum) also feed on the leaves, stems, and flower heads of the Eurasian congener C. vulgare, thus limiting individual plant performance. In this study, we tested the effects of insect herbivores on the population growth rate of C. vulgare. We experimentally initiated invasions by adding seeds at four unoccupied grassland sites in eastern Nebraska, USA, and recorded plant establishment, survival, and reproduction. Cumulative foliage and floral herbivory reduced C. vulgare seedling density, and prevented almost any reproduction by C. vulgare in half the sites. The matrix model we constructed showed that this herbivory resulted in a reduction of the asymptotic population growth rate (?), from an 88% annual increase to a 54% annual decline. These results provide strong support for the hypothesis that indigenous herbivores limit population invasion of this non-native plant species into otherwise suitable grassland habitat. PMID:24402131

  18. Econometric Based Modeling of Population Growth under Socio-cultual Constraints

    E-print Network

    Ausloos, Marcel; Herteliu, Claudiu; Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile

    2015-01-01

    There are many constraints on population growth or decay in a country: several are of socio-economic origins. Sometimes cultual constraints also exist: sexual intercourse is banned in various religions, during Nativity and Lent fasting periods. We analyzed data consisting of registered daily birth records for very long (35,429 points) time series and many (24,947,061) babies in Romania between 1905 and 2001 (97 years). The data was obtained from the 1992 and 2002 censuses. We grouped the population into two categories (Eastern Orthodox and Non-Orthodox) in order to distinguish cultual constraints. We performed extensive data analysis in a comparative manner for both groups. From such a long time series data analysis, it seems that the Lent fast has a more drastic effect than the Nativity fast over baby conception within the Eastern Orthodox population, thereby differently increasing the population ratio. Thereafter, we developed and tested econometric models where the dependent variable is the baby conception...

  19. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

    PubMed Central

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

  20. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    PubMed

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

  1. Age, growth, and mortality of introduced flathead catfish in Atlantic rivers and a review of other populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kwak, T.J.; Pine, William E., III; Waters, D.S.

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of individual growth and mortality rates of an introduced fish population is required to determine the success and degree of establishment as well as to predict the fish's impact on native fauna. The age and growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris have been studied extensively in the species' native and introduced ranges, and estimates have varied widely. We quantified individual growth rates and age structure of three introduced flathead catfish populations in North Carolina's Atlantic slope rivers using sagittal otoliths, determined trends in growth rates over time, compared these estimates among rivers in native and introduced ranges, and determined total mortality rates for each population. Growth was significantly faster in the Northeast Cape Fear River (NECFR) than in the Lumber and Neuse rivers. Fish in the NECFR grew to a total length of 700 mm by age 7, whereas fish in the Neuse and Lumber river populations reached this length by 8 and 10 years, respectively. The growth rates of fish in all three rivers were consistently higher than those of native riverine populations, similar to those of native reservoir populations, and slower than those of other introduced riverine populations. In general, recent cohorts (1998-2001 year-classes) in these three rivers exhibited slower growth among all ages than did cohorts previous to the 1998 year-class. The annual total mortality rate was similar among the three rivers, ranging from 0.16 to 0.20. These mortality estimates are considerably lower than those from the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, suggesting relatively low fishing mortality for these introduced populations. Overall, flathead catfish populations in reservoirs grow faster than those in rivers, the growth rates of introduced populations exceed those of native populations, and eastern United States populations grow faster than those in western states. Such trends constitute critical information for understanding and managing local populations.

  2. The effects of population density on juvenile growth rate in white-tailed deer.

    PubMed

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn. PMID:25148782

  3. The Effects of Population Density on Juvenile Growth Rate in White-Tailed Deer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn.

  4. Loss of foundation species increases population growth of exotic forbs in sagebrush steppe.

    PubMed

    Prevéy, Janet S; Germino, Matthew J; Huntly, Nancy J

    2010-10-01

    The invasion and spread of exotic plants following land disturbance threatens semiarid ecosystems. In sagebrush steppe, soil water is scarce and is partitioned between deep-rooted perennial shrubs and shallower-rooted native forbs and grasses. Disturbances commonly remove shrubs, leaving grass-dominated communities, and may allow for the exploitation of water resources by the many species of invasive, tap-rooted forbs that are increasingly successful in this habitat. We hypothesized that exotic forb populations would benefit from increased soil water made available by removal of sagebrush, a foundation species capable of deep-rooting, in semiarid shrub-steppe ecosystems. To test this hypothesis, we used periodic matrix models to examine effects of experimental manipulations of soil water on population growth of two exotic forb species, Tragopogon dubius and Lactuca serriola, in sagebrush steppe of southern Idaho, USA. We used elasticity analyses to examine which stages in the life cycle of T. dubius and L. serriola had the largest relative influence on population growth. We studied the demography of T. dubius and L. serriola in three treatments: (1) control, in which vegetation was not disturbed, (2) shrubs removed, or (3) shrubs removed but winter-spring recharge of deep-soil water blocked by rainout shelters. The short-term population growth rate (Lambda) of T. dubius in the shrub-removal treatment was more than double that of T. dubius in either sheltered or control treatments, both of which had limited soil water. All L. serriola individuals that emerged in undisturbed sagebrush plots died, whereas Lambda of L. serriola was high (Lambda > 2.5) in all shrub-removal plots, whether they had rainout shelters or not. Population growth of both forbs in all treatments was most responsive to flowering and seed production, which are life stages that should be particularly reliant on deep-soil water, as well as seedling establishment, which is important to most plant populations, especially during invasion. These data indicate the importance of native species, in this case the dominant shrub, in influencing soil resources and restricting population growth of exotic plants. These results argue that management of invasive plants should focus not only on removal of nonnatives, but also on reestablishment of important native species. PMID:21049877

  5. Population and phase coherence during the growth of an elongated Bose-Einstein condensate M. Hugbart, J. A. Retter, A. F. Varn, P. Bouyer,* and A. Aspect

    E-print Network

    Queensland, University of

    Population and phase coherence during the growth of an elongated Bose-Einstein condensate M between the population growth and the development of the phase coherence. We also compare the growth in the axially hydrodynamic regime. We ob- serve that the population growth is in reasonable agreement

  6. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India.

    PubMed

    Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-03-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  7. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

    PubMed Central

    Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-01-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  8. Effects of population increase on cui-ui growth and maturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scoppettone, G.G.; Rissler, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Cui-ui Chasmistes cujus is endemic to Pyramid Lake, Nevada. The cui-ui population declined during much of the 20th century as a result of water diversion and the formation of a shallow and virtually impassable delta at the mouth of the Truckee River, its spawning habitat. The population increased more than 10-fold to more than 1 million adults after access to the river was restored, creating a period of relatively higher density. This change presented the opportunity to test intraspecific density effects on cui-ui age and length at maturity and on growth. We also compared the year-class structure of the adult population before and after improved access. At low density, cui-ui mean age at maturation was 9.2 years for males and 9.6 for females; at high density, it was significantly higher: 11.8 years for males and 12.0 for females. There was no significant change in mean fork length at maturity related to population increase. Growth patterns differed between high and low density, the low-density fish growing faster than high-density fish before their respective mean age of maturity; past their mean age at maturity, high-density fish grew significantly faster than low-density fish. Fish in both density periods reached similar lengths by about 19-20 years of age. Year-class structure for both density periods consisted of strong year-classes, which predominated the adult population for several years.

  9. Rapid population growth. Effects on the social infrastructures of southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Smith, J D

    1995-01-01

    Southern Africa's high rate of population growth and widespread poverty have serious implications for the region's social infrastructure. Large increases in the school-age population have undermined efforts to improve the quality of education since all resources are directed toward expansion of availability. To achieve a teacher-pupil ratio of 1:40 at the primary level and 1:35 at the secondary level, an estimated additional 50,000 classrooms would be required. Also jeopardized by high fertility is access to health services, safe water, and sanitation. In Mozambique, for example, where only 30% of the population has access to health services, the under-five years mortality rate is 297/1000 live births and the physician-population ratio is 1:37,970. Substandard housing, homelessness, congestion, deteriorating public services, pollution, and crime dominate urban areas. The single most effective intervention to reduce population growth in Southern Africa is female education. Women without a secondary education bear an average of seven children; if 40% of women attend secondary school, this drops to three children. Thus, governments must make gender equality a central focus of development planning and ensure that women are participants in this process. Property and inheritance laws that serve to increase the economic need for early marriage should be eliminated. Public health programs, including family planning, must be expanded. Finally, women's organizations should be strengthened and urged to foster female empowerment. PMID:12346213

  10. The evolution of paternal care can lead to population growth in artificial societies.

    PubMed

    Salgado, Mauricio

    2015-09-01

    Evolutionary models of paternal care predict that when female reproductive effort is higher than male reproductive effort, selection might favour the emergence of unconditional male cooperation towards females, even when the latter group does not reciprocate. However, previous models have assumed constant population sizes, so the ecology of interacting individuals and its effects on population dynamics have been neglected. This paper reports an agent-based model that incorporates ecological dynamics into evolutionary game dynamics by allowing populations to vary. As previous models demonstrate, paternal care only evolves when female reproductive effort is higher than that of males, and the optimal strategy for females is to exploit male unconditional cooperation. The model also shows that evolution of this behaviour drives some simulations towards regimes of population growth. Thanks to the evolution of paternal care, females? inter-birth intervals are shortened and causing them to reproduce faster. Thus, it is suggested that the evolution of paternal care in species with differential reproductive effort between sexes could be associated to population growth. Nevertheless, the modelled evolutionary dynamics are stochastic, so differences in reproductive effort are necessary but not sufficient conditions for the evolution of paternal care. PMID:26051195

  11. Growth of a population of bacteria in a dynamical hostile environment

    E-print Network

    Garet, Olivier

    2010-01-01

    We study the growth of a population of bacteria in a dynamical hostile environment corresponding to the immune system of the colonised organism. The immune cells evolve as subcritical open clusters of oriented percolation and are perpetually reinforced by an immigration process, while the bacteria try to grow as a supercritical oriented percolation in the remaining empty space. For appropriate values of the parameters, we prove that the population of bacteria grows linearly. In this perspective, we build general tools to study dependent percolation models issued from renormalization processes.

  12. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    PubMed

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L? (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

  13. Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

    PubMed Central

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

    2014-01-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

  14. Optical micromanipulation of mixed yeast cell populations for analyzing growth behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glueckstad, Jesper; Rodrigo, Peter J.; Daria, Vincent R.; Siegumfeldt, Henrik; Nissen, Peter; Arneborg, Nils

    2005-03-01

    We use spatially sculptured light for user-interactive micromanipulation of mixed yeast cell populations to analyze growth behavioural patterns. There is negligible absorption in the near-infrared region of the light spectrum making it suitable for direct manipulation of individual cells in a growing population. Rather than using a single-beam optical trap, multiple cells are manipulated using a system based on the Generalized Phase Contrast (GPC) method, which allows arbitrary trapping configurations i.e. control over the number of traps, and the size/shape of each trap. This enables the cells to be selectively trapped in all three-dimensions (3D) and manipulated in real-time while under direct observation. Here, we impose controlled experiments using these multiple 3D optical traps to show the alteration of growth patterns in mixed cultures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Hanseniaspora uvarum experiencing spatially constrained conditions.

  15. Nerve growth cone lamellipodia contain two populations of actin filaments that differ in organization and polarity

    PubMed Central

    1992-01-01

    The organization and polarity of actin filaments in neuronal growth cones was studied with negative stain and freeze-etch EM using a permeabilization protocol that caused little detectable change in morphology when cultured nerve growth cones were observed by video- enhanced differential interference contrast microscopy. The lamellipodial actin cytoskeleton was composed of two distinct subpopulations: a population of 40-100-nm-wide filament bundles radiated from the leading edge, and a second population of branching short filaments filled the volume between the dorsal and ventral membrane surfaces. Together, the two populations formed the three- dimensional structural network seen within expanding lamellipodia. Interaction of the actin filaments with the ventral membrane surface occurred along the length of the filaments via membrane associated proteins. The long bundled filament population was primarily involved in these interactions. The filament tips of either population appeared to interact with the membrane only at the leading edge; this interaction was mediated by a globular Triton-insoluble material. Actin filament polarity was determined by decoration with myosin S1 or heavy meromyosin. Previous reports have suggested that the polarity of the actin filaments in motile cells is uniform, with the barbed ends toward the leading edge. We observed that the actin filament polarity within growth cone lamellipodia is not uniform; although the predominant orientation was with the barbed end toward the leading edge (47-56%), 22-25% of the filaments had the opposite orientation with their pointed ends toward the leading edge, and 19-31% ran parallel to the leading edge. The two actin filament populations display distinct polarity profiles: the longer filaments appear to be oriented predominantly with their barbed ends toward the leading edge, whereas the short filaments appear to be randomly oriented. The different length, organization and polarity of the two filament populations suggest that they differ in stability and function. The population of bundled long filaments, which appeared to be more ventrally located and in contact with membrane proteins, may be more stable than the population of short branched filaments. The location, organization, and polarity of the long bundled filaments suggest that they may be necessary for the expansion of lamellipodia and for the production of tension mediated by receptors to substrate adhesion molecules. PMID:1447299

  16. Dr. Z's Calc2 Handout for Lecture 21 [ Models involving y = k(y -b); Exponential Growth and Decay] By Doron Zeilberger

    E-print Network

    Zeilberger, Doron

    remains after T1 years? (c) After how long will only M1 mg remain? Example Problem P22.2: The half-life and 26 minutes. Problem Type P22.2: The half-life of some radioactive element is Thalf years. Suppose2 hours. (d) When will the population reach B2? Example Problem P22.1: A bacteria culture starts

  17. APPLICATION OF ELASTICITY ANALYSES AND PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN DETERMINING STRESSOR IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND EXTINCTION RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...

  18. Effects of density and fire on the vital rates and population growth of a perennial goldenaster

    PubMed Central

    Gornish, Elise S.

    2013-01-01

    Intraspecific density effects are generally associated with other factors, like disturbance. Therefore, the ways in which density effects might interact with disturbance to modify the relationships between vital rates and population growth must be understood. I quantified the effects of density on the life-history stages of the perennial composite Pityopsis aspera over 3 years, the span of which included years in which fire did and did not occur. In an experimental study, I estimated the survival, growth and reproduction for shoots in plots established across a natural range of densities in Florida, USA. In a novel analysis, a regression-design life-table response experiment was used to determine which transitions were associated with density, how they contributed to differences in estimated population growth rates and how this relationship differed as a result of fire. The shape of the relationship between population growth rate (?) and density was modified by fire, primarily as a result of contributions from adult flowering stasis and survival, and first-year survival probabilities. Fire modified and even reversed the effect of extreme densities on adult flowering stasis and survival and of first-year survival, resulting in more positive contributions from these transitions to ? at the lowest and highest density values. These results demonstrate the first application of a regression-design life-table response experiment to elucidating the interactive effects of density and fire. They highlight the utility of this approach for both capturing the complex dynamics of populations and establishing a means of determining how vital rates might contribute to differences in demography across densities.

  19. Effect of Microstructure on Population Growth Parameters of Escherichia coli in Gelatin-Dextran Systems

    PubMed Central

    Boons, Kathleen; Noriega, Estefanía; Van den Broeck, Rob; David, Charlotte C.; Hofkens, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Current literature acknowledges the effect of food structure on bacterial dynamics. Most studies introduce this “structure” factor using a single gelling agent, resulting in a homogeneous environment, whereas in practice most food products are heterogeneous. Therefore, this study focuses on heterogeneous protein-polysaccharide mixtures, based on gelatin and dextran. These mixtures show phase separation, leading to a range of heterogeneous microstructures by adjusting relative concentrations of both gelling agents. Based on confocal microscope observations, the growth of Escherichia coli in gelatin-dextran systems was observed to occur in the dextran phase. To find a relation between microscopic and population behavior, growth experiments were performed in binary and singular gelatin-dextran systems and culture broth at 23.5°C, with or without adding 2.9% (wt/vol) NaCl. The Baranyi and Roberts growth model was fitted to the experimental data and parameter estimates were statistically compared. For salted binary mixtures, a decrease in the population maximum cell density was observed with increasing gelatin concentration. In this series, for one type of microstructure, i.e., a gelatin matrix phase with a disperse dextran phase, the maximum cell density decreased with decreasing percentage of dextran phase. However, this relation no longer held when other types of microstructure were observed. Compared to singular systems, adding a second gelling agent in the presence of NaCl had an effect on population lag phases and maximum cell densities. For unsalted media, the growth parameters of singular and binary mixtures were comparable. Introducing this information into mathematical models leads to more reliable growth predictions and enhanced food safety. PMID:24951795

  20. Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City - A Geospatial Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, M.; Muslim, M.

    2014-11-01

    The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971-2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by 214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated.

  1. Cursorial spiders retard initial aphid population growth at low densities in winter wheat.

    PubMed

    Birkhofer, K; Gavish-Regev, E; Endlweber, K; Lubin, Y D; von Berg, K; Wise, D H; Scheu, S

    2008-06-01

    Generalist predators contribute to pest suppression in agroecosystems. Spider communities, which form a substantial fraction of the generalist predator fauna in arable land, are characterized by two functional groups: web-building and cursorial (non-web-building) species. We investigated the relative impact of these two functional groups on a common pest (Sitobion avenae, Aphididae) in wheat by combining a molecular technique that revealed species-specific aphid consumption rates with a factorial field experiment that analyzed the impact, separately and together, of equal densities of these two spider functional groups on aphid population growth. Only cursorial spiders retarded aphid population growth in our cage experiment, but this effect was limited to the initial aphid-population growth period and low-to-intermediate aphid densities. The molecular analysis, which used aphid-specific primers to detect aphid DNA in predator species, detected the highest proportion of aphid-consuming individuals in two cursorial spiders: the foliage-dwelling Xysticus cristatus (Thomisidae) and the ground-active Pardosa palustris (Lycosidae). The results suggest that manipulating the community composition in favour of pest-consuming functional groups may be more important for improving biological control than fostering predator biodiversity per se. Agricultural management practices that specifically foster effective species or functional groups (e.g. mulching for cursorial spiders) should receive more attention in low-pesticide farming systems. PMID:18439342

  2. Exponentially Enhanced Quantum Metrology

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, S. M.; Braunstein, Samuel L.

    2008-06-06

    We show that when a suitable entanglement-generating unitary operator depending on a parameter is applied on N qubits in parallel, a precision of the order of 2{sup -N} in estimating the parameter may be achieved. This exponentially improves the precision achievable in classical and in quantum nonentangling strategies.

  3. Verification of SNPs Associated with Growth Traits in Two Populations of Farmed Atlantic Salmon.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Hsin Y; Hamilton, Alastair; Guy, Derrick R; Tinch, Alan E; Bishop, Steve C; Houston, Ross D

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between genetic variants and traits of economic importance in aquaculture species is pertinent to selective breeding programmes. High-throughput sequencing technologies have enabled the discovery of large numbers of SNPs in Atlantic salmon, and high density SNP arrays now exist. A previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) using a high density SNP array (132K SNPs) has revealed the polygenic nature of early growth traits in salmon, but has also identified candidate SNPs showing suggestive associations with these traits. The aim of this study was to test the association of the candidate growth-associated SNPs in a separate population of farmed Atlantic salmon to verify their effects. Identifying SNP-trait associations in two populations provides evidence that the associations are true and robust. Using a large cohort (N = 1152), we successfully genotyped eight candidate SNPs from the previous GWAS, two of which were significantly associated with several growth and fillet traits measured at harvest. The genes proximal to these SNPs were identified by alignment to the salmon reference genome and are discussed in the context of their potential role in underpinning genetic variation in salmon growth. PMID:26703584

  4. Estimation of contributions to population growth: a reverse-time capture-recapture approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

    2000-01-01

    We consider methods for estimating the relative contributions of different demographic components, and their associated vital rates, to population growth. We identify components of the population at time i (including a component for animals not in the population at i). For each such component we ask the following question: 'What is the probability that an individual randomly selected from the population at time i + 1 was a member of this component at i?' The estimation methods for these probabilities ((i) are based on capture-recapture studies of marked animal populations and use reverse-time modeling. We consider several different sampling situations and present example analyses for meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. The relationship between these (i parameters and elasticities (and other parameters based on projection matrix asymptotics) is noted and discussed. We conclude by suggesting that model-based asymptotics be viewed as demographic theory and that direct estimation approaches be used to test this theory with data from sampled populations with marked animals.

  5. Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-A Is Associated with Chronic Mountain Sickness in the Andean Population

    PubMed Central

    Espinoza, Jose R.; Alvarez, Giancarlo; León-Velarde, Fabiola; Ju Preciado, Hugo F.; Macarlupu, Jose-Luis; Rivera-Ch, Maria; Rodriguez, Jorge; Favier, Judith; Gimenez-Roqueplo, Anne-Paule

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Espinoza, Jose R., Giancarlo Alvarez, Fabiola León-Velarde, Hugo F. Ju Preciado, Jose-Luis Macarlupu, Maria Rivera-Ch, Jorge Rodriguez, Judith Favier, Anne-Paule Gimenez-Roqueplo, and Jean-Paul Richalet. Vascular endothelial growth factor-A is associated with chronic mountain sickness in Andean population. High Alt Med Biol. 15:146–154, 2014.—A study of chronic mountain sickness (CMS) with a candidate gene—vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA)—was carried out in a Peruvian population living at high altitude in Cerro de Pasco (4380?m). The study was performed by genotyping of 11 tag SNPs encompassing 2.2?kb of region of VEGFA gene in patients with a diagnosis of CMS (n=131; 49.1±12.7 years old) and unrelated healthy controls (n=84; 47.2±13.4 years old). The VEGFA tag SNP rs3025033 was found associated with CMS (p<0.05), individuals with AG genotype have 2.5 more risk of CMS compared to those with GG genotype (p<0.02; OR, 2.54; 95% CI: 1.10–5.88). Pairwise Fst and Nei's distance indicate genetic differentiation between Cerro de Pasco population and HapMap3 population (Fst>0.36, p<0.01), suggesting selection is operating on the VEGF gene. Our results suggest that VEGFA is associated with CMS in long-term residents at high altitude in the Peruvian Andes. PMID:24971768

  6. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  7. Field population abundance of leafhopper (Homoptera: Cicadelidae) and planthopper (Homoptera: Delphacidae) as affected by rice growth stages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hafizal, M. M.; Idris, A. B.

    2013-11-01

    The leafhopper (Homoptera: Delphacidae) and planthopper (Homoptera: Cicadelidae) are considered as important rice pest in Asia including Malaysia. As phloem-feeders, they can cause loss to rice growth development and their population abundance is thought to be influenced by rice growth stages. This study was conducted to examine the population of Delphacidae and Cicadelidae between different rice growth stages, i.e. before and after rice planting periods. Monthly sampling was conducted in three sites in Kuala Selangor at before planting, vegetative, reproductive, maturing stages and post-harvest period using sweeping net and light traps. Population abundance of Delphacidae and Cicadelidae were found to be significantly different and positively correlated with different rice growth stages (p<0.05). Delphacidae was most abundance during maturing stages, while the abundance of Cicadelidae peaked during reproductive stage of rice growth. Differences in temporal abundance of the population of these two homopterans indicated adaptive feeding strategy to reduce food competition.

  8. Anatomy of a bottleneck: diagnosing factors limiting population growth in the Puerto Rican parrot

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beissenger, S.R.; Wunderle, J.M., Jr.; Meyers, J.M.; Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.

    2008-01-01

    The relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes that maintain population bottlenecks has received little consideration. We evaluate the role of these factors in maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata) in a prolonged bottleneck from 1973 through 2000 despite intensive conservation efforts. We first conduct a risk analysis, then examine evidence for the importance of specific processes maintaining the bottleneck using the multiple competing hypotheses approach, and finally integrate these results through a sensitivity analysis of a demographic model using life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to determine the relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes on population growth. Annual population growth has been slow and variable (1.0 6 5.2 parrots per year, or an average k?1.05 6 0.19) from 16 parrots (1973) to a high of 40-42 birds (1997-1998). A risk analysis based on population prediction intervals (PPI) indicates great risk and large uncertainty, with a range of 22?83 birds in the 90% PPI only five years into the future. Four primary factors (reduced hatching success due to inbreeding, failure of adults to nest, nest failure due to nongenetic causes, and reduced survival of adults and juveniles) were responsible for maintaining the bottleneck. Egghatchability rates were low (70.6% per egg and 76.8% per pair), and hatchability increased after mate changes, suggesting inbreeding effects. Only an average of 34% of the population nested annually, which was well below the percentage of adults that should have reached an age of first breeding (41-56%). This chronic failure to nest appears to have been caused primarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors, and not by nest-site scarcity or a skewed sex ratio. Nest failure rates from nongenetic causes (i.e., predation, parasitism, and wet cavities) were low (29%) due to active management (protecting nests and fostering captive young into wild nests), diminishing the importance of nest failure as a limiting factor. Annual survival has been periodically reduced by catastrophes (hurricanes), which have greatly constrained population growth, but survival rates were high under non-catastrophic conditions. Although the importance of factors maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot bottleneck varied throughout the 30-year period of study, we determined their long-term influence using LSA simulations to correlate variation in demographic rates with variation in population growth (k). The bottleneck appears to have been maintained primarily by periodic catastrophes (hurricanes) that reduced adult survival, and secondarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors that resulted in a failure of many adults to nest. The influence of inbreeding through reduced hatching success played a much less significant role, even when additional effects of inbreeding on the production and mortality of young were incorporated into the LSA. Management actions needed to speed recovery include (1) continued nest guarding to minimize the effects of nest failure due to nongenetic causes; (2) creating a second population at another location on the island --a process that was recently initiated--to reduce the chance that hurricane strikes will cause extinction; and (3) determining the causes of the low percentage of breeders in the population and ameliorating them, which would have a large impact on population growth.

  9. Grid cells analysis of urban growth using remote sensing and population census data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagan, H.; Yamagata, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Urban growth and sprawl have drastically altered the ecosystems and ecosystem services. Urban areas are an increasingly important component of the global environment, yet they remain one of the most challenging areas for conducting research. Remote sensing based information is one of the most important resources to support urban planning and administration in megacities. It is possible to provide the up-to-date information regarding the extent, growth, and physical characteristics of urban land. Remote sensing provides spatially consistent image information that covers broad areas with both high spatial resolution and high temporal frequency. Therefore, remote sensing is an important tool for providing information on urban land-cover characteristics and their changes over time at various spatial and temporal scales. Urban land-use and land-cover changes are linked to socio-economic activities. Urbanization includes both the physical growth of a city and the movement of people to urban areas. As a consequence, it is essential to combine remote sensing derived parameters with socio-economic parameter to analyze the spatial-temporal changes and interaction of both factors. The aim of the research was to use1-km2 grid cells to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban growth in the world mega cities. The research was conducted in the 50 global cities using Landsat ETM/TM remote sensing imagery from 1985 - 2011, and time series population census data (1-km2 resolution gridded population census data of Japan and 2.5 arc-minute resolutions Gridded Population of the World). First, maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method were used to produce land cover maps by using Landsat images. Then intersect the land cover maps with 1-km2 grid cell maps to represents the proportion of each land cover category within each 1-km2 grid cell. Finally, we combined the proportional land cover maps with gridded population census data on 1-km2 resolution grid cells to investigate the spatial relationships between the changes of land-cover classes and changes of population density. A case study in Tokyo, Japan and Beijing, China were provided. The results showed that the urban area decreased in the metropolitan inner core as the city center experienced depopulation in Tokyo. Spatial correlation analysis showed a strong positive correlation between urban expansion and population density change and that urban expansion was strongly negatively correlated with cropland change both in Tokyo and Beijing. Time series of land-cover maps of the Tokyo in 1987, 2001, and 2011. Urban B. refers to the urban/built-up class. The black lines indicate the major railway and metro lines. Five broad land-cover categories;

  10. Protected lands, population growth, and women's lives: a proposed agenda for action.

    PubMed

    Engelman, R

    1994-01-01

    Possible measures to slow the expansion of population pressures on protected lands and natural systems are wrought with the questions of sexuality, reproductive anatomy, abortion, and behavior. Even the idea of population policy remains a sensitive topic. The most effective population policies appear to be linked to human development generally, i.e., development is the best contraceptive. Widespread access to contraceptives also produces results, as in the case of Bangladesh, where government efforts to boost contraceptive prevalence from 3% to 40% in two decades also resulted in the reduction of total fertility rate from 7 in 1970 to 5.5 in 1991. A new consensus formed on the promotion of family planning and other measures to achieve fertility reduction at the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, September 1994, in spite of the remonstrations of the Vatican about abortion. Women's educational levels significantly impact fertility rates, for instance, in Peru a woman with 10 years of education has 2-3 children, whereas an uneducated woman has 7-8 children. In 23 developed countries women with secondary school education typically have their first child 3.5 years later than uneducated women. Such delays in addition to small families and credit extension schemes for women to start small businesses influence fertility and population growth greatly, provided women have access to family planning. The demographer John Bongaarts has calculated that, despite hopeful signs of declining fertility, the projected 2 billion people added to the world's population in the next two decades stem from the population momentum associated with the large numbers in reproductive age. If the average age of first childbirth could be raised 5 years in developing countries, world population in 2100 would be lower by 1.2 billion people than projected. Ultimately, an understanding must be reached about the connection between protected land and people's livelihood by alleviating poverty and providing access to family planning and education. PMID:12290869

  11. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

    PubMed

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

  12. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

  13. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    PubMed

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as demonstrated in Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Egypt, whereas its lack resulted in failures in Pakistan, Turkey, and Algeria. PMID:12290837

  14. Biomass, growth, and development of populations of herbivorous zooplankton in the southeastern Bering Sea during spring

    SciTech Connect

    Vidal, J.; Smith, S.L.

    1985-09-01

    Two distinct communities of herbivorous zooplankton, separated by an oceanographic front, inhabit the continental shelf and slope of the southeastern Bering Sea during spring. The community over the outer shelf and slope is dominated by populations of large-sized oceanic copepods (mainly Neocalanus ssp.) that develop early in spring and attain maximum biomass and growth rates by mid- to late spring. Total biomass and growth rates of herbivores follow the spring outburst of phytoplankton; during April and May biomass increases from less than or equal to1 to approx.14 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope and to approx.10 g C m/sup -2/ on the outer shelf, and maximum growth rates >500 and approx.300 mg C m/sup -2/ day/sup -1/ occure on the slope and outer shelf, respectively in May. The dominant species, N. plumchrus, grows from copepodid I and V between late March and early May, and after attaining maximum body weight in late May and early June it begins its downward migration. The inshore community on the middle shelf is dominated by the euphausiid Thysanoessa raschi in April and May and by the copepod Calanus marshallae in late May and early June. Total biomass (less than or equal to g C m/sup -2/) and growth rates (less than or equal to50 mg C m/sup -2/) of the inshore community are substantially lower than those of the offshore community and show a delayed response to the spring bloom of phytoplankton; both biomass and growth rates increase about one month after the bloom. Small herbivorous copepods contributed little to the total biomass and growth rates of either community and the cumulative community growth rates during April and May decreases from 18.3 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope to 2.5 g C m/sup -2/ on the middle shelf. 79 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  15. National Health Expenditure Growth in the 1980's: An Aging Population, New Technologies, and Increasing Competition

    PubMed Central

    Freeland, Mark S.; Schendler, Carol Ellen

    1983-01-01

    Health care spending in the United States more than tripled between 1971 and 1981, increasing from $83 billion to $287 billion. This growth in health sector spending substantially outpaced overall growth in the economy, averaging 13.2 percent per year compared to 10.5 percent for the gross national product (GNP). By 1981, one out of every ten dollars of GNP was spent on health care, compared to one out of every thirteen dollars of GNP in 1971. If current trends continue and if present health care financing arrangements remain basically unchanged, national health expenditures are projected to reach approximately $756 billion in 1990 and consume roughly 12 percent of GNP. The focal issue in health care today is cost and cost Increases. The outlook for the 1980's is for continued rapid growth but at a diminished rate. The primary force behind this moderating growth is projected lower inflation. However, real growth rates are also expected to moderate slightly. The chief factors influencing the growth of health expenditures in the eighties are expected to be aging of the population, new medical technologies, increasing competition, restrained public funding, growth in real income, increased health manpower, and a deceleration in economy-wide inflation. Managers, policy makers and providers in the health sector, as in all sectors, must include in today's decisions probable future trends. Inflation, economic shocks, and unanticipated outcomes of policies over the last decade have intensified the need for periodic assessments of individual industries and their relationship to the macro economy. This article provides such an assessment for the health care industry. Baseline current-law projections of national health expenditures are made to 1990. PMID:10309852

  16. Neurotrophic growth factors stimulate glycosaminoglycan synthesis in identified retinal cell populations in vitro.

    PubMed

    Normand, G; Hicks, D; Dreyfus, H

    1998-12-01

    Glycosaminoglycans (GAG) are known to participate in central nervous system processes such as development, cell migration, and neurite outgrowth, but little is known with respect to their regulation through soluble neurotrophic factors. In the present study, we have addressed this issue using cell culture models of three distinct cell populations derived from young rat retinas, namely, purified M uller glia, pigmented epithelium, and neurons respectively. Cultures were maintained in chemically defined media in the presence or absence of either basic fibroblast or epidermal growth factor. In control glial and epithelial cultures, hyaluronic acid dominated the soluble GAG pool, with lesser contributions from dermatan sulfate, chondroitin sulfate, and heparan sulfate (in decreasing order). Retinal neuronal GAG were almost exclusively chondroitin sulfate (approximately 90%). Treatment of glial and epithelial cultures with either factor led to dose-dependent increases in especially hyaluronic acid synthesis (a maximum 6-fold increase relative to control levels), with smaller but consistent changes in chondroitin sulfate. Similar treatment of retinal neurons did not lead to any changes in GAG synthesis. These data indicate that glia and pigment epithelia are the principal sources of GAG components in retina at least in vitro, and that endogenous neurotrophic growth factors can greatly modify GAG synthesis in these two retinal cell populations. Such data suggest that a delicate balance may exist between growth factor availability and glycoconjugate metabolism in vivo, participating in normal or pathological states of the retina. PMID:9858645

  17. Population growth rate and genetic variability of small and large populations of Red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) following multigenerational exposure to copper.

    PubMed

    Laskowski, Ryszard; Radwan, Jacek; Kuduk, Katarzyna; Mendrok, Magdalena; Kramarz, Paulina

    2015-07-01

    We reared large (1000 individuals) and small (20 individuals) populations of Tribolium castaneum on diet contaminated with copper in order to determine if the size of a population affects its ability to adapt to adverse environmental conditions. After 10 generations, we used microsatellite markers to estimate and subsequently compare the genetic variability of the copper-treated populations with that of the control populations, which were reared on uncontaminated medium. Additionally, we conducted a full cross-factorial experiment which evaluated the effects of 10 generations of "pre-exposure" to copper on a population's fitness in control and copper-contaminated environments. In order to distinguish results potentially arising from genetic adaptation from those due to non-genetic effects associated to parental exposure to copper, we subjected also F11 generation, originating from parents not exposed to copper, to the same cross-factorial experiment. The effects of long-term exposure to copper depended on population size: the growth rates of small populations that were pre-exposed to copper were inhibited compared to those of small populations reared in uncontaminated environments. Large Cu-exposed populations had a higher growth rate in the F10 generation compared to the control groups, while the growth rate of the F11 generation was unaffected by copper exposure history. The only factor that had a significant effect on genetic variability was population size, but this was to be expected given the large difference in the number of individuals between large and small populations. Neither copper contamination nor its interaction with population size affected the number of microsatellite alleles retained in the F10 generation. PMID:25920509

  18. The hydrocarbon era, world population growth and oil use -- a continuing geological challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Townes, H.L.

    1993-05-01

    The world's use of oil, the relationship of world population growth to this use, and what the energy situation might be in the future is a challenge to the geologist. The earth's population doubled between 1930 and 1975 and a comparison of world petroleum use and population growth show similar upward curves. Of the annual fossil fuel resources used in the world, crude oil supplies over 40 percent of the total resources. Petroleum is a finite resource and a projection of world oil production indicates it will peak early in the 21st century. Assuming an ultimate recovery range of 2600 to 3000 billion barrels of oil, 750 billion barrels have already been produced, there are 1000 billion barrels in proven reserves, and 1000 billion barrels remaining to be discovered. The challenge to the geologist will be to find these hidden oil reserves. Recovering this 1000 billion barrels of new oil reserves will require large capital expenditures and, currently, only 60 percent of the capital needed to discover this oil is being spent. With the world's demand for oil increasing, world-wide exploration expenditures are actually decreasing. Simple economics indicates that the reason for this drop in expenditures is that the price of oil is too low to encourage investment. Low oil prices also discourage investment in the development of alternative fuels. There is plenty of oil now, but the world must look to the future and realize present usage rate cannot continue forever. 23 refs., 10 figs.

  19. Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Defries, Ruth S.; Rudel, Thomas; Uriarte, Maria; Hansen, Matthew

    2010-03-01

    Reducing atmospheric carbon emissions from tropical deforestation is at present considered a cost-effective option for mitigating climate change. However, the forces associated with tropical forest loss are uncertain. Here we use satellite-based estimates of forest loss for 2000 to 2005 (ref. 2) to assess economic, agricultural and demographic correlates across 41 countries in the humid tropics. Two methods of analysis-linear regression and regression tree-show that forest loss is positively correlated with urban population growth and exports of agricultural products for this time period. Rural population growth is not associated with forest loss, indicating the importance of urban-based and international demands for agricultural products as drivers of deforestation. The strong trend in movement of people to cities in the tropics is, counter-intuitively, likely to be associated with greater pressures for clearing tropical forests. We therefore suggest that policies to reduce deforestation among local, rural populations will not address the main cause of deforestation in the future. Rather, efforts need to focus on reducing deforestation for industrial-scale, export-oriented agricultural production, concomitant with efforts to increase yields in non-forested lands to satisfy demands for agricultural products.

  20. Use of juvenoid insect growth regulators for management of cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii Glover, and silverleaf whitefly, Bemisia sp., populations 

    E-print Network

    Satoh, Gordon Takeo

    1993-01-01

    Studies were conducted on developmental, reproductive, population, and organophosphate insecticide susceptibility effects of juvenoid insect growth regulators OIGRS) on two homopteran pest insects of cotton: cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii Glover...

  1. Jensen’s Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Pickett, Evan J.; Thomson, David L.; Li, Teng A.; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  2. Periodic Exponential Shear of Complex Fluids

    E-print Network

    Chirag Kalelkar; Gareth McKinley

    2012-05-31

    We define a class of flows with exponential kinematics termed Periodic Exponential Shear (PES) flow which involve periodic exponential stretching of fluid elements along with their rotation. We exhibit analytical and numerical results for PES flow by using the Oldroyd-B model for viscoelastic fluids. We calculate the growth in the shear and the normal stresses analytically as well as demonstrate that repeated application of the flow leads to stable oscillatory shear and normal stresses. We define a material function applicable to a periodic, unsteady shear flow and show numerically that this material function exhibits deformation-rate thickening behavior for viscoelastic fluids subject to PES flow. We demonstrate the feasibility of PES flow by presenting preliminary experimental results from a controlled-strain rate rheometer, using a Newtonian mineral oil.

  3. Long-term growth of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, Philip A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1--4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23--25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39--47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  4. Stochastic model for population migration and the growth of human settlements during the Neolithic transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fedotov, Sergei; Moss, David; Campos, Daniel

    2008-08-01

    We present a stochastic two-population model that describes the migration and growth of semisedentary foragers and sedentary farmers along a river valley during the Neolithic transition. The main idea is that random migration and transition from a sedentary to a foraging way of life, and backwards, is strongly coupled with the local crop production and associated degradation of land. We derive a nonlinear integral equation for the population density coupled with the equations for the density of soil nutrients and crop production. Our model provides a description of the formation of human settlements along the river valley. The numerical results show that the individual farmers have a tendency for aggregation and clustering. We show that the large-scale pattern is a transient phenomenon which eventually disappears due to land degradation.

  5. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, William F.; Pearson, Yanthe E.; Larsen, Elise A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Turner, Jessica B.; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E.; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits. PMID:23720545

  6. Climate change and population growth in Timor Leste: implications for food security.

    PubMed

    Molyneux, Nicholas; da Cruz, Gil Rangel; Williams, Robert L; Andersen, Rebecca; Turner, Neil C

    2012-12-01

    The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5-3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition. PMID:22569843

  7. Numerical approximations for population growth model by Rational Chebyshev and Hermite Functions collocation approach: A comparison

    E-print Network

    K. Parand; A. R. Rezaei; A. Taghavi

    2010-08-16

    This paper aims to compare rational Chebyshev (RC) and Hermite functions (HF) collocation approach to solve the Volterra's model for population growth of a species within a closed system. This model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. This approach is based on orthogonal functions which will be defined. The collocation method reduces the solution of this problem to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. We also compare these methods with some other numerical results and show that the present approach is applicable for solving nonlinear integro-differential equations.

  8. Stochastic stable population growth in integral projection models: theory and application.

    PubMed

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2007-02-01

    Stochastic matrix projection models are widely used to model age- or stage-structured populations with vital rates that fluctuate randomly over time. Practical applications of these models rest on qualitative properties such as the existence of a long term population growth rate, asymptotic log-normality of total population size, and weak ergodicity of population structure. We show here that these properties are shared by a general stochastic integral projection model, by using results in (Eveson in D. Phil. Thesis, University of Sussex, 1991, Eveson in Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. 70, 411-440, 1993) to extend the approach in (Lange and Holmes in J. Appl. Prob. 18, 325-344, 1981). Integral projection models allow individuals to be cross-classified by multiple attributes, either discrete or continuous, and allow the classification to change during the life cycle. These features are present in plant populations with size and age as important predictors of individual fate, populations with a persistent bank of dormant seeds or eggs, and animal species with complex life cycles. We also present a case-study based on a 6-year field study of the Illyrian thistle, Onopordum illyricum, to demonstrate how easily a stochastic integral model can be parameterized from field data and then applied using familiar matrix software and methods. Thistle demography is affected by multiple traits (size, age and a latent "quality" variable), which would be difficult to accommodate in a classical matrix model. We use the model to explore the evolution of size- and age-dependent flowering using an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach. We find close agreement between the observed flowering behavior and the predicted ESS from the stochastic model, whereas the ESS predicted from a deterministic version of the model is very different from observed flowering behavior. These results strongly suggest that the flowering strategy in O. illyricum is an adaptation to random between-year variation in vital rates. PMID:17123085

  9. Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas.

    PubMed

    Whitfield, Colin J; Baulch, Helen M; Chun, Kwok P; Westbrook, Cherie J

    2015-02-01

    Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions. PMID:25515021

  10. Behavioural models of population growth rates: implications for conservation and prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sutherland, William J; Norris, Ken

    2002-01-01

    Conservation biologists often wish to predict how vertebrate populations will respond to local or global changes in conditions such as those resulting from sea-level rise, deforestation, exploitation, genetically modified crops, global warming, human disturbance or from conservation activities. Predicting the consequences of such changes almost always requires understanding the population growth rate and the density dependence. Traditional means of directly measuring density dependence are often extremely difficult and have the problem that if the environment changes then it is necessary to remeasure the density dependence. We describe an alternative approach that does not require such long datasets and can be used to predict the density dependence under novel conditions. Game theory can be used to describe behavioural decisions that individuals make in response to interference, prey depletion, territorial behaviour or social dominance, and the resultant fitness consequences. It is then possible to predict how survival or reproductive output changes with population size. From this we can then make predictions about the responses of populations to environmental changes. We will illustrate how this can be applied to a range of species and a range of applied problems. PMID:12396518

  11. Contributions of vital rates to growth of a protected population of American black bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mitchell, M.S.; Pacifici, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Powell, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of large, long-lived animals suggest that adult survival generally has the potential to contribute more than reproduction to population growth rate (??), but because survival varies little, high variability in reproduction can have a greater influence. This pattern has been documented for several species of large mammals, but few studies have evaluated such contributions of vital rates to ?? for American black bears (Ursus americanus). We used variance-based perturbation analyses (life table response experiments, LTRE) and analytical sensitivity and elasticity analyses to examine the actual and potential contributions of variation of vital rates to variation in growth rate (??) of a population of black bears inhabiting the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, using a 22-year dataset. We found that recruitment varied more than other vital rates; LTRE analyses conducted over several time intervals thus indicated that recruitment generally contributed at least as much as juvenile and adult survival to observed variation in ??, even though the latter 2 vital rates had the greater potential to affect ??. Our findings are consistent with predictions from studies on polar bears (U. maritimus) and grizzly bears (U. arctos), but contrast with the few existing studies on black bears in ways that suggest levels of protection from human-caused mortality might explain whether adult survival or recruitment contribute most to variation in ?? for this species. We hypothesize that ?? is most strongly influenced by recruitment in protected populations where adult survival is relatively high and constant, whereas adult survival will most influence ?? for unprotected populations. ?? 2009 International Association for Bear Research and Management.

  12. Effects of forest management on density, survival, and population growth of wood thrushes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Lang, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Loss and alteration of breeding habitat have been proposed as causes of declines in several Neotropical migrant bird populations. We conducted a 4-year study to determine the effects of winter prescribed burning and forest thinning on breeding wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) populations at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge (PNWR) in Georgia. We estimated density, adult and juvenile survival rates, and apparent annual survival using transect surveys, radiotelemetry, and mist netting. Burning and thinning did not cause lower densities (P = 0.25); wood thrush density ranged from 0.15 to 1.30 pairs/10 ha. No radiomarked male wood thrushes (n = 68) died during the 4 years, but female (n = 63) weekly survival was 0.981 ? 0.014 (SE) for females (n = 63) and 0.976 ? 0.010 for juveniles (n = 38). Apparent annual adult survival was 0.579 (SE = 0.173). Thinning and prescribed burning did not reduce adult or juvenile survival during the breeding season or apparent annual adult survival. Annual population growth (lambda) at PNWR was 1.00 (95% confidence interval = 0.32--1.63), and the considerable uncertainty in this prediction underscores the need for long term monitoring to effectively manage Neotropical migrants. Population growth increased on experimental compartments after the burn and thin (95% CI before = 0.91--0.97, after = 0.98--1.05), while control compartment declined (before = 0.98--1.05, after = 0.87--0.92). We found no evidence that the current management regime at PNWR, designed to improve red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) habitat, negatively affected wood thrushes.

  13. Bushmeat poaching reduces the seed dispersal and population growth rate of a mammal-dispersed tree.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Jedediah F; Helmy, Olga E; Brockelman, Warren Y; Maron, John L

    2009-06-01

    Myriad tropical vertebrates are threatened by overharvest. Whether this harvest has indirect effects on nonhunted organisms that interact with the game species is a critical question. Many tropical birds and mammals disperse seeds. Their overhunting in forests can cause zoochorous trees to suffer from reduced seed dispersal. Yet how these reductions in seed dispersal influence tree abundance and population dynamics remains unclear. Reproductive parameters in long-lived organisms often have very low elasticities; indeed the demographic importance of seed dispersal is an open question. We asked how variation in hunting pressure across four national parks with seasonal forest in northern Thailand influenced the relative abundance of gibbons, muntjac deer, and sambar deer, the sole dispersers of seeds of the canopy tree Choerospondias axillaris. We quantified how variation in disperser numbers affected C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance across the four parks. We then used these data in a structured population model based on vital rates measured in Khao Yai National Park (where poaching pressure is minimal) to explore how variation in illegal hunting pressure might influence C. axillaris population growth and persistence. Densities of the mammals varied strongly across the parks, from relatively high in Khao Yai to essentially zero in Doi Suthep-Pui. Levels of C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance positively tracked mammal density. If hunting in Khao Yai were to increase to the levels seen in the other parks, C. axillaris population growth rate would decline, but only slightly. Extinction of C. axillaris is a real possibility, but may take many decades. Recent and ongoing extirpations of vertebrates in many tropical forests could be creating an extinction debt for zoochorous trees whose vulnerability is belied by their current abundance. PMID:19544729

  14. VARIABLE POPULATION GROWTH OF VARROA DESTRUCTOR (MESOSTIGMATA: VARROIDAE) IN COLONIES OF HONEY BEES (HYMENOPTERA: APIDAE) DURING A 10-YEAR PERIOD

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The intrinsic growth rates for varroa mites (Varroa destructor) significantly varied among years during 1993--2002 in Baton Rouge, LA. Mite population growth was monitored in colonies of honey bees with queens obtained from different sources in the U.S. Queens were from sources that had not select...

  15. Effects of Logging Second-Growth Forests on Headwater Populations of Coastal Cutthroat Trout: A 6-Year, Multistream,

    E-print Network

    Hinch, Scott G.

    Effects of Logging Second-Growth Forests on Headwater Populations of Coastal Cutthroat Trout: A 6, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada Abstract.--To understand how logging of second-growth forests the effects of logging on fish and habitat. In the treatment streams, 21% of the watershed area was logged

  16. Theoretical Population Biology 71 (2007) 8094 The effect of size-dependent growth and environmental factors on

    E-print Network

    2007-01-01

    equal to the relative change in mean per unit size growth rate, when only size-dependent factors affectTheoretical Population Biology 71 (2007) 80­94 The effect of size-dependent growth and environmental factors on animal size variability Scott D. Peacora,b,Ã, James R. Bencea , Catherine A. Pfisterc

  17. Population growth rate of a common understory herb decreases non-linearly across a gradient of deer herbivory

    E-print Network

    Population growth rate of a common understory herb decreases non-linearly across a gradient of deer-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and the resulting increase in herbivory of forest understory plants populations of white-tailed deer (henceforth deer) throughout eastern North America (McCabe and McCabe, 1997

  18. Some socio-economic aspects of population growth in the USSR.

    PubMed

    Simchera, V

    1974-01-01

    This summarizes population trends in the U.S.S.R. since the early 19 00's. On August 9, 1973, the population topped 250 million, almost precisely double that of Russia at the time of the 1st general census in 1897. Since 1922 it had increased by more than 84%. Russia has suffered more population loss in wars than any other country in modern times. The First World War, the Civil War, and the Second World War took a toll of more than 30 million, more than 20 million during the Second World War alone. The extent of these loses can be judged from the following: between 1897 and 1913 the population of Russia increased at the rate of 1.55% per annum or 34.6 million; if this had continued the population would have been at least 182.8 million by the end of 1922. As it was, the population was 136.1 million by 1922 and the hypothetical 182.8 million was not reached until 1952. More than 4/5 of today's population have been born since the October Revolution. Only 43 million were born before the revolution and only 7.5 were born in the last century. The economic base has grown much more rapidly than the population. For the period 1940-1972 the population increased 1.27 times, national income 9.51 times, fixed assets, 8.76 times, industrial production, 13.65 times, agricultural output, 2.14 times, and capital investment 14.52 times. The birthrate has been falling since World War 1 but total population growth has increased steadily. Birthrates have declined from 45.5/1000 in 1913 to 17.8/1000 in 1972 and a slight upturn is seen. It is expected that the birthrate will continue to increase slightly, then stabilize. Much of the population increase has come from significantly reduced mortality rates. 1st and 2nd children now account for 71% of all births. Family allowances, child care, free health care, and other social benefits encourage births while high employment levels for women, a shortage of men in the marriageable age ranges, and late marriages tend to depress the birthrate. The shortage of men is directly the result of the losses during World War 2. Employment opportunities have changed dramatically. The country has gone from a primarily agricultural nation to one in which 80% of the people are working class wage or salary earners. The current problem is closing the urban-rural gap and equalizing population density. 3/5 of the people are town-dwellers. To fight declining population in the villages and in the areas of Siberia and the Far East, new towns and new industrial and cultural centers are being established such as Bratsk, Ust-Ilim, Norilsk, and others. PMID:12307196

  19. Population Issues & Policies Population Issues

    E-print Network

    Huang, Youqin

    ? How? Is population growth detrimental to economic development? Does population growth lead to environmental degradation? Figure 3.1 The basic (and wrong) Malthusian ideas about the growth of population1 Unit 6: Population Issues & Policies Population Issues Can we feed the growing world population

  20. World population and energy growth: Impact on the Caribbean and the roles of energy efficiency improvements and renewable energies

    SciTech Connect

    Sheffield, J.

    1997-06-01

    This paper briefly describes population and energy use trends and their consequences, particularly to the Caribbean region. Historical trends for transitional countries show a decrease in population growth rate as annual per capita commercial energy use increases. If trends continue, an increase in per capita energy will be important to stabilizing populations of transitional countries. Energy efficiency improvements, the role of fossil energy, and the use of alternative energy sources in Caribbean nations are briefly discussed. 6 refs., 3 figs.

  1. America's Water Supply Challenge: Adaptation to Future Population Growth and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahat, V.; Brown, T. C.; Ramirez, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Water shortages, and the prospect of such shortages, have been repeatedly faced and addressed as population and economic growth placed increasing demands on available water over the past century. Such challenges have been most common in arid areas, but also have been encountered in some more humid portions of the US during times of drought. The challenges have been met using a wide range of adaptation measures, from large infrastructure projects (e.g., major trans-basin diversions) to alterations in local water prices (e.g., increasing block pricing). The future may bring even greater adaptation challenges as, in addition to continued growth in population, climate change will reduce water supplies in many locations. In this study we report on the relative importance of changes in demand versus changes in supply in causing projected future shortages in basins throughout the contiguous U.S. under different sets of socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We then examine the degree to which projected shortages can be avoided through adaptation. The adaptations examined include reductions in demand of major water use sectors, alterations in water management infrastructure, and inter-basin water transfers.

  2. Growth, reproduction & population structure of the freshwater crab Sinopotamon yangtsekiense bott, 1967, from Zhejiang, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Tao; Lai, Wei; Du, Nan-Shan

    1994-03-01

    Monthly investigations were mae on the population of Chinese freshwater crab, Sinopotamon yangtsekiense Bott, 1967 from April, 1984 to March, 1985. The data on 4413 specimens show that the growth was affected mainly by temperature. During the April to November growth period, the crabs' major development occurred from June through October. One year was required for a fine white oocyte to develop into a mature egg. The reproduction period was June October. Females bearing eggs were taken from June August, and crabs with young were found from July October. The females reproduced once a year but could for more than one year. The number of eggs carried by a female varied greatly according to the size of the crab, ranging from 30 to 100 eggs. New-born crabs become mature after 1 2 years. The sex ratio was approximately 1?1 in the overall population. However, the larger crabs are predominantly male. The age distribution of S. yangtsekinese was estimated from size frequency histograms. There were more adult crabs (over 70%) from June to October and more immature crabs (over 50%) from November to May.

  3. Exponentiated power Lindley distribution

    PubMed Central

    Ashour, Samir K.; Eltehiwy, Mahmoud A.

    2014-01-01

    A new generalization of the Lindley distribution is recently proposed by Ghitany et al. [1], called as the power Lindley distribution. Another generalization of the Lindley distribution was introduced by Nadarajah et al. [2], named as the generalized Lindley distribution. This paper proposes a more generalization of the Lindley distribution which generalizes the two. We refer to this new generalization as the exponentiated power Lindley distribution. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely well-known distributions in addition to the above two models, such as the Lindley distribution among many others. It also provides more flexibility to analyze complex real data sets. We study some statistical properties for the new distribution. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution parameters. Least square estimation is used to evaluate the parameters. Three algorithms are proposed for generating random data from the proposed distribution. An application of the model to a real data set is analyzed using the new distribution, which shows that the exponentiated power Lindley distribution can be used quite effectively in analyzing real lifetime data.

  4. Population trends, growth, and movement of bigmouth buffalo, Ictiobus cyprinellus, in Lake Oahe, 1963-70

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moen, Thomas E.

    1974-01-01

    The bigmouth buffalo, Ictiobus cyprinellus, is the most important commercial species in Lake Oahe, a reservoir in the upper Missouri River. The population was dominated by three strong year classes (1959, 1960, and 1962). Estimated population in the fall of 1964 was 540,000 fish of the combined 1959-60 year classes and 5 million of the 1962 year class (equivalent to 81 kg per hectare). Abundance declined irregularly during 1964-70. Annual landings of these two dominant groups during 1965-70 ranged from 149 to 271 metric tons. The total landings during the period amounted to about 151,800 fish of the 1959-60 year classes and 313,000 fish of the 1962 year class. Growth rate was high during the first few years of impoundment and then declined. Males and females grew at about the same rate for the first 4 yr of life, but females were longer and heavier than males at ages V-VIII. At these ages, fish of the 1962 year class were about 10% shorter and 36% lighter than those of the 1959 year class. Growth of tagged and untagged fish was similar. The number of females per male increased with age. Age at maturity increased slightly as growth rate declined. Movement of marked fish was extensive and the recapture of marked fish was directly related to size of fish, location of release, and subsequent fishing pressure; 44% were recaptured downstream from the point of release, and 38% upstream. Females showed a stronger tendency to move downstream than males. Maximum distance traveled was 380 km and maximum rate of travel was 6.4 km per day. Successful reproduction appeared to be associated with flooding of shoreline vegetation during spring and early summer. Inasmuch as little such flooding is expected in the future, annual landings of bigmouth buffalo will probably continue to decline sharply.

  5. Population dynamics of Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus in sugarcane cultivars and its effect on plant growth.

    PubMed

    Muñoz-Rojas, J; Caballero-Mellado, J

    2003-11-01

    Different experiments have estimated that the contribution of biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is largely variable among sugarcane cultivars. Which bacteria are the most important in sugarcane-associated BNF is unknown. However, Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus has been suggested as a strong candidate responsible for the BNF observed. In the present study, bacteria-free micropropagated plantlets of five sugarcane cultivars were inoculated with three G. diazotrophicus strains belonging to different genotypes. Bacterial colonization was monitored under different nitrogen fertilization levels and at different stages of plant growth. Analysis of the population dynamics of G. diazotrophicus strains in the different sugarcane varieties showed that the bacterial populations decreased drastically in relation to plant age, regardless of the nitrogen fertilization level, bacterial genotype or sugarcane cultivars. However, the persistence of the three strains was significantly longer in some cultivars (e.g., MEX 57-473) than in others (e.g., MY 55-14). In addition, some strains (e.g., PAl 5(T)) persisted for longer periods in higher numbers than other strains (e.g., PAl 3) inside plants of all the cultivars tested. Indeed, the study showed that the inoculation of G. diazotrophicus may be beneficial for sugarcane plant growth, but this response is dependent both on the G. diazotrophicus genotype and the sugarcane variety. The most positive response to inoculation was observed with the combination of strain PAl 5(T) and the variety MEX 57-473. Although the positive effect on sugarcane growth apparently occurred by mechanisms other than nitrogen fixation, the results show the importance of the sugarcane variety for the persistence of the plant-bacteria interaction, and it could explain the different rates of BNF estimated among sugarcane cultivars. PMID:14722690

  6. Effect of crop development on biogenic emissions from plant populations grown in closed plant growth chambers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batten, J. H.; Stutte, G. W.; Wheeler, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    The Biomass Production Chamber at John F. Kennedy Space Center is a closed plant growth chamber facility that can be used to monitor the level of biogenic emissions from large populations of plants throughout their entire growth cycle. The head space atmosphere of a 26-day-old lettuce (Lactuca sativa cv. Waldmann's Green) stand was repeatedly sampled and emissions identified and quantified using GC-mass spectrometry. Concentrations of dimethyl sulphide, carbon disulphide, alpha-pinene, furan and 2-methylfuran were not significantly different throughout the day; whereas, isoprene showed significant differences in concentration between samples collected in light and dark periods. Volatile organic compounds from the atmosphere of wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Yecora Rojo) were analysed and quantified from planting to maturity. Volatile plant-derived compounds included 1-butanol, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, nonanal, benzaldehyde, tetramethylurea, tetramethylthiourea, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran. Concentrations of volatiles were determined during seedling establishment, vegetative growth, anthesis, grain fill and senescence and found to vary depending on the developmental stage. Atmospheric concentrations of benzaldehyde and nonanal were highest during anthesis, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran concentrations were greatest during grain fill, and the concentration of the tetramethylurea peaked during senescence.

  7. Components and Public Health Impact of Population Growth in the Arab World

    PubMed Central

    Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality—the impact of demographic changes—depict a new era in the Arab world. PMID:25993053

  8. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    PubMed

    Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world. PMID:25993053

  9. Growth and Reproduction of Glyphosate-Resistant and Susceptible Populations of Kochia scoparia

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Vipan; Jha, Prashant

    2015-01-01

    Evolution of glyphosate-resistant kochia is a threat to no-till wheat-fallow and glyphosate-resistant (GR) cropping systems of the US Great Plains. The EPSPS (5-enol-pyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase) gene amplification confers glyphosate resistance in the tested Kochia scoparia (L.) Schrad populations from Montana. Experiments were conducted in spring to fall 2014 (run 1) and summer 2014 to spring 2015 (run 2) to investigate the growth and reproductive traits of the GR vs. glyphosate-susceptible (SUS) populations of K. scoparia and to determine the relationship of EPSPS gene amplification with the level of glyphosate resistance. GR K. scoparia inbred lines (CHES01 and JOP01) exhibited 2 to 14 relative copies of the EPSPS gene compared with the SUS inbred line with only one copy. In the absence of glyphosate, no differences in growth and reproductive parameters were evident between the tested GR and SUS inbred lines, across an intraspecific competition gradient (1 to 170 plants m-2). GR K. scoparia plants with 2 to 4 copies of the EPSPS gene survived the field-use rate (870 g ha-1) of glyphosate, but failed to survive the 4,350 g ha-1 rate of glyphosate (five-times the field-use rate). In contrast, GR plants with 5 to 14 EPSPS gene copies survived the 4,350 g ha-1 of glyphosate. The results from this research indicate that GR K. scoparia with 5 or more EPSPS gene copies will most likely persist in field populations, irrespective of glyphosate selection pressure. PMID:26580558

  10. Cell Differentiation in a Bacillus thuringiensis Population during Planktonic Growth, Biofilm Formation, and Host Infection

    PubMed Central

    Verplaetse, Emilie; Slamti, Leyla; Gohar, Michel

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is armed to complete a full cycle in its insect host. During infection, virulence factors are expressed under the control of the quorum sensor PlcR to kill the host. After the host’s death, the quorum sensor NprR controls a necrotrophic lifestyle, allowing the vegetative cells to use the insect cadaver as a bioincubator and to survive. Only a part of the Bt population sporulates in the insect cadaver, and the precise composition of the whole population and its evolution over time are unknown. Using fluorescent reporters to record gene expression at the single-cell level, we have determined the differentiation course of a Bt population and explored the lineage existing among virulent, necrotrophic, and sporulating cells. The dynamics of cell differentiation were monitored during growth in homogenized medium, biofilm formation, and colonization of insect larvae. We demonstrated that in the insect host and in planktonic culture in rich medium, the virulence, necrotrophism, and sporulation regulators are successively activated in the same cell. In contrast, in biofilms, activation of PlcR is dispensable for NprR activation and we observed a greater heterogeneity than under the other two growth conditions. We also showed that sporulating cells arise almost exclusively from necrotrophic cells. In biofilm and in the insect cadaver, we identified an as-yet-uncharacterized category of cells that do not express any of the reporters used. Overall, we showed that PlcR, NprR, and Spo0A act as interconnected integrators to allow finely tuned adaptation of the pathogen to its environment. PMID:25922389

  11. [Does population ecology have general laws?].

    PubMed

    Turchin, P V

    2002-01-01

    There is a widespread opinion among ecologists that ecology lacks general laws. In this paper the author argues that this opinion is mistaken. Taking the case of population dynamics, the author points out that there are several very general law-like propositions that provide the theoretical basis for most population dynamics models that were developed to address specific issues. Some of these foundational principles, like the law of exponential growth, are logically very similar to certain law of physics (Newton's law of intertia, for example, is almost a direct analogue of exponential growth). The author discusses two other principles (population self-limitation and resource-consumer oscillations), as well as the more elementary postulates that underlie them. None of the "laws" that the author proposes for population ecology are new. Collectively ecologists have been using these general principles in guiding development of their models and experiments since the days of Lotka, Volterra, and Gause. PMID:11881213

  12. Recent and rapid population growth and range expansion of the Lyme disease tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, in North America.

    PubMed

    Khatchikian, Camilo E; Prusinski, Melissa A; Stone, Melissa; Backenson, Peter Bryon; Wang, Ing-Nang; Foley, Erica; Seifert, Stephanie N; Levy, Michael Z; Brisson, Dustin

    2015-07-01

    Migration is a primary force of biological evolution that alters allele frequencies and introduces novel genetic variants into populations. Recent migration has been proposed as the cause of the emergence of many infectious diseases, including those carried by blacklegged ticks in North America. Populations of blacklegged ticks have established and flourished in areas of North America previously thought to be devoid of this species. The recent discovery of these populations of blacklegged ticks may have resulted from either in situ growth of long-established populations that were maintained at very low densities or by migration and colonization from established populations. These alternative evolutionary hypotheses were investigated using Bayesian phylogeographic approaches to infer the origin and migratory history of recently detected blacklegged tick populations in the Northeastern United States. The data and results indicate that newly detected tick populations are not the product of in situ population growth from a previously established population but from recent colonization resulting in a geographic range expansion. This expansion in the geographic range proceeded primarily through progressive and local migration events from southern populations to proximate northern locations although long-distance migration events were also detected. PMID:26149959

  13. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  14. Effects of wind energy production on growth, demography, and survivorship of a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population in Southern California with comparisons to natural populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lovich, J.E.; Ennen, J.R.; Madrak, S.; Meyer, K.; Loughran, C.; Bjurlin, C.; Arundel, T.; Turner, W.; Jones, C.; Groenendaal, G.M.

    2011-01-01

    We studied a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population at a large wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California over six field seasons from 1997 to 2010. We compared growth and demographic parameters to populations living in less disturbed areas; as well as populations of the closely-related and newly-described G. morafkai elsewhere in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. We marked 69 individuals of all size classes and estimated a population size of 96 tortoises, or about 15.4/km2. Growth rates for males were lower than reported elsewhere, although maximum body size was larger. The smallest female with shelled eggs was 221 mm and males mature at over 200 mm. Mean male size was greater than that of females. The adult sex ratio was not significantly different from unity. Size frequency histograms were similar over time and when compared to most, but not all, G. morafkai populations in the Sonoran Desert. For a cohort of adult females, we estimated mortality at 8.4% annually due, in part, to site operations. This value was low in comparison to many other populations during the same time period. Other than possible differences in growth rate of males and the high survivorship of females, there appear to be few differences between this population and those in more natural areas. The high productivity of food plants at the site and its limited public access may contribute to the overall stability of the population. However, the effects of utility-scale renewable energy development on tortoises in other, less productive, areas are unknown. Additional research (especially controlled and replicated before and after studies) is urgently needed to address this deficiency because of forecasted expansion of utility-scale renewable energy development in the future.

  15. Effects of tag loss on direct estimates of population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rotella, J.J.; Hines, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    The temporal symmetry approach of R. Pradel can be used with capture-recapture data to produce retrospective estimates of a population's growth rate, lambda(i), and the relative contributions to lambda(i) from different components of the population. Direct estimation of lambda(i) provides an alternative to using population projection matrices to estimate asymptotic lambda and is seeing increased use. However, the robustness of direct estimates of lambda(1) to violations of several key assumptions has not yet been investigated. Here, we consider tag loss as a possible source of bias for scenarios in which the rate of tag loss is (1) the same for all marked animals in the population and (2) a function of tag age. We computed analytic approximations of the expected values for each of the parameter estimators involved in direct estimation and used those values to calculate bias and precision for each parameter estimator. Estimates of lambda(i) were robust to homogeneous rates of tag loss. When tag loss rates varied by tag age, bias occurred for some of the sampling situations evaluated, especially those with low capture probability, a high rate of tag loss, or both. For situations with low rates of tag loss and high capture probability, bias was low and often negligible. Estimates of contributions of demographic components to lambda(i) were not robust to tag loss. Tag loss reduced the precision of all estimates because tag loss results in fewer marked animals remaining available for estimation. Clearly tag loss should be prevented if possible, and should be considered in analyses of lambda(i), but tag loss does not necessarily preclude unbiased estimation of lambda(i).

  16. World population growth, soil erosion, and food security. [Adapted from book

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, L.R.

    1981-11-27

    Since 1950, world food output has more than doubled, but in many cases this impressive gain has been achieved by the adoption of agricultural practices that lead to an excessive rate of soil erosion. At least one-fifth, and perhaps as much as one-third, of the global cropland base is losing soil at a rate that is undermining its long-term productivity. World food production per person will eventually begin to decrease if the loss of topsoil continues at current rates. In view of this, there is an urgent need to realign national priorities everywhere in order to get the brakes on world population growth and to finance the adoption of agricultural practices that will preserve the cropland base. (Ed. note: this article was adapted from Mr. Brown's recent book, Building a Sustainable Society (Norton, New York, 1981)). 46 references, 5 tables.

  17. The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular sampling intervals caused by differing weather conditions may range from weeks to one month, whereby the latter represents the upper limit: larger intervals could render the data set worthless. The number of sampling points at the location must be more than 4, randomly distributed and approximately 5m apart to smooth the effects of patchy distributions, which are typical for most LBF. Only three simple measurements are necessary to determine chamber building rate and population dynamics under natural conditions. These are the number of individuals, number of chambers and the largest diameter of the individual. The determination of a standardized sample surface area, which is necessary for population dynamic investigations, depends on the sampling method. Reproduction and longevity can be estimated based on shell size using the date where the mean abundance of specimens with minimum size (expected after a one month's growth) characterizes the reproduction period. Then the difference to the date with the mean abundance of specimens characterized by large size indicating readiness for reproduction marks the life time. Calculation of the chamber-building rate based on chamber number is more complex and depends on the reproduction period and longevity. This can be fitted with theoretical growth functions (e.g. Michaelis Menten Function). According to the above mentioned methods, chamber building rates, longevity and population dynamics can be obtained for the shallow sublittoral symbiont-bearing LBF using the 'natural laboratory'.

  18. The protective function of personal growth initiative among a genocide-affected population in Rwanda.

    PubMed

    Blackie, Laura E R; Jayawickreme, Eranda; Forgeard, Marie J C; Jayawickreme, Nuwan

    2015-07-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the extent to which individual differences in personal growth initiative (PGI) were associated with lower reports of functional impairment of daily activities among a genocide-affected population in Rwanda. PGI measures an individual's motivation to develop as a person and the extent to which he or she is active in setting goals that work toward achieving self-improvement. We found that PGI was negatively associated with functional impairment when controlling for depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, and other demographic factors. Our results suggest that PGI may constitute an important mindset for facilitating adaptive functioning in the aftermath of adversity and in the midst of psychological distress, and as such they might have practical applications for the development of intervention programs. PMID:26147518

  19. Parameters of technological growth.

    PubMed

    Starr, C; Rudman, R

    1973-10-26

    The key parameters to technological growth have been identified as societal resources and societal expectations. Both of these are evident functions of technology, and their combined effects can be expected to continue technology's historical exponential growth. This growth pattern would be substantially altered only if we assume that knowledge is bounded or if society makes a conscious decision to stop the flow of resources into the production of new technological options. Although such conscious selection among individual technical fields is to be expected, it is very unlikely to apply to the totality of technology since, as society grows more complex it continuously creates new needs (priority factor), which in turn provide new opportunities for the application of technological options (payoff factor). The analysis also clearly emphasizes the important role which awareness of new technologies plays in forming societal expectations. These considerations indicate that the technological component of the world simulation model proposed by Meadows et al. (1) and Forrester (2) is best represented by an exponential growth function. The importance of this has been shown by Boyd (3) (Fig. 1), whose "technological optimist" curve has slightly less than exponential growth. Private comnmunication with Boyd indicates that an exponential assumption would reduce the time for equilibrium by several decades. Boyd also indicated that in his modification of the world dynamics model, an exponential technological growth would eventually dominate all other parameters in determining the long-term approach to a steady state. It is evident that the behavior of any world system model is very sensitive to the growth and interaction assumptions for its principal parameters. Thus, model studies should not be easily presumed to represent reality. The one conclusion that appears to be valid regardless of approach is the evident merit of reducing population growth. The parameter for quality of life shown in Fig. 1, parts 2 and 5, is the product of material levels, overcrowding, food, and pollution. The one factor that a "technological optimist" cannot expect to substantially alter in this model is the effect of overcrowding (Fig. 1, parts 3 and 6). Certainly, the many clear values of reducing population growth and improving the environment do not appear to require the justification of a world system analysis. In like manner, it seems appropriate to encourage the "technological optimist" to provide future options for societal choice, even though there may be present philosophical uncertainties as to their eventual merits. Unlike resources found in nature, technology is a manmade resource whose abundance can be continuously increased, and whose importance in determining the world's future is also increasing. PMID:17841308

  20. 88 Branching Processes: Variation, Growth, and Extinction of Populations As in Section 4.1.1, the Law of Large Numbers suggests the approximations

    E-print Network

    Klebaner, Fima C.

    88 Branching Processes: Variation, Growth, and Extinction of Populations As in Section 4: Variation, Growth, and Extinction of Populations, Haccou P, Jagers P & Vatutin VA, pp. 88­94. Cambridge-time demographic model (e.g., Keyfitz 1977). 4.2 Discrete-Time Dynamical Systems as Population Models F.C. Klebaner

  1. Phase Space Interpretation of Exponential Fermi Acceleration

    E-print Network

    Benno Liebchen; Robert Büchner; Christoph Petri; Fotis K. Diakonos; Florian Lenz; Peter Schmelcher

    2011-07-18

    Recently, the occurrence of exponential Fermi acceleration has been reported in a rectangular billiard with an oscillating bar inside [K. Shah, D. Turaev, and V. Rom-Kedar, Phys. Rev. E {\\bf 81}, 056205 (2010)]. In the present work, we analyze the underlying physical mechanism and show that the phenomenon can be understood as a sequence of highly correlated motions, consisting of alternating phases of free propagation and motion along the invariant spanning curves of the well-known one-dimensional Fermi-Ulam model. The key mechanism for the occurrence of exponential Fermi acceleration can be captured in a random walk model in velocity space with step width proportional to the velocity itself. The model reproduces the occurrence of exponential Fermi acceleration and provides a good ab initio prediction of the value of the growth rate including its full parameter-dependency. Our analysis clearly points out the requirements for exponential Fermi acceleration, thereby opening the perspective of finding other systems exhibiting this unusual behaviour.

  2. Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

    2008-01-01

    Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

  3. Population growth rate and energy consumption correlations: Implications for the future

    SciTech Connect

    Sheffield, J.

    1998-01-01

    The fertility rate for women and the related population growth rate, for numerous developing (transitional) countries, show a downward trend with increasing annual per capita energy use. On the assumption that such historic trends will continue, estimates are made for some simple cases of the energy demands required to stabilize the world`s population in the period 2,100 to 2,150. An assessment is then made of how these energy demands might be met, capitalizing as much as possible on the indigenous energy resources for each of the ten major regions of the world: North America, Latin America, Europe OECD, Former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe, China, Pacific OECD, East Asia, South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Consideration is also given to the potential need to limit carbon emissions because of global warming concerns. The study highlights the crucial nature of energy efficiency improvements and the need to utilize all energy sources, if the world is to find a sustainable future with an improved standard of living for the developing world.

  4. Effect of Portulaca oleracea extracts on growth performance and microbial populations in ceca of broilers.

    PubMed

    Zhao, X H; He, X; Yang, X F; Zhong, X H

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Portulaca oleracea extracts on growth performance and microbial populations in the ceca of broilers. A total of 120 one-day-old broilers were randomly divided into 3 groups. Portulaca oleracea extracts were added to diets at 0.2 and 0.4% (wt/wt; POL-0.2, POL-0.4), respectively. The control (CON) group was administered with no P. oleracea extract supplementation. Body weight gain and feed conversion ratio were recorded every 2 wk. On d 28 and 42, the cecal contents were collected and assayed for Escherichia coli, Lactobacillus, and Bifidobacterium populations. Additionally, the pH of the ileum and cecum was measured. The results showed that both on d 28 and 42 BW gain of P. oleracea extract supplementation groups was significantly higher, whereas the feed conversion ratio was lower (P < 0.05) compared with CON. On d 28 and 42, significantly (P < 0.05) fewer E. coli were recovered from ceca of broilers provided with the POL-0.2 diet than from broilers provided with the control diet. The quantities of Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium of POL-0.2 were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than CON. Results showed P. oleracea extracts have no distinct influence on intestinal pH. These data suggest that P. oleracea extract supplementation significantly altered the cecal bacterial community without affecting the intestinal pH. PMID:23571345

  5. Association of Transforming Growth Factor Alpha Polymorphisms with Nonsyndromic Cleft Lip and Palate in Iranian Population

    PubMed Central

    Ebadifar, Asghar; Hamedi, Roya; Khorram Khorshid, Hamid Reza; Saliminejad, Kioomars; Kamali, Koorosh; Aghakhani Moghadam, Fatemeh; Esmaeili Anvar, Nazanin; Ameli, Nazilla

    2015-01-01

    Background: Cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) is one of the most common congenital anomalies and the etiology of orofacial clefts is multifactorial. Transforming growth factor alpha (TGFA) is expressed at the medial edge epithelium of fusing palatal shelves during craniofacial development. In this study, the association of two important TGFA gene polymorphisms, BamHI (rs11466297) and RsaI (rs3732248), with CL/P was evaluated in an Iranian population. Methods: The frequencies of BamHI and RsaI variations were determined in 105 unrelated Iranian subjects with nonsyndromic CL/P and 218 control subjects using PCR and RFLP methods, and the results were compared with healthy controls. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The BamHI AC genotype was significantly higher (p=0.016) in the patients (12.4%) than the control group (5.0%). The BamHI C allele was significantly higher (p=0.001; OR=3.4, 95% CI: 1.6–7.4) in the cases (8.0%) compared with the control group (2.5%). Conclusion: Our study showed that there was an association between the TGFA BamHI variation and nonsyndromic CL/P in Iranian population.

  6. Activity and growth of microbial populations in pressurized deep-sea sediment and animal gut samples.

    PubMed Central

    Tabor, P S; Deming, J W; Ohwada, K; Colwell, R R

    1982-01-01

    Benthic animals and sediment samples were collected at deep-sea stations in the northwest (3,600-m depth) and southeast (4,300- and 5200-m depths) Atlantic Ocean. Utilization rates of [14C]glutamate (0.67 to 0.74 nmol) in sediment suspensions incubated at in situ temperatures and pressures (3 to 5 degrees C and 360, 430, or 520 atmospheres) were relatively slow, ranging from 0.09 to 0.39 nmol g-1 day-1, whereas rates for pressurized samples of gut suspensions varied widely, ranging from no detectable activity to a rapid rate of 986 nmol g-1 day-1. Gut flora from a holothurian specimen and a fish demonstrated rapid, barophilic substrate utilization, based on relative rates calculated for pressurized samples and samples held at 1 atm (101.325 kPa). Substrate utilization by microbial populations in several sediment samples was not inhibited by in situ pressure. Deep-sea pressures did not restrict growth, measured as doubling time, of culturable bacteria present in a northwest Atlantic sediment sample and in a gut suspension prepared from an abyssal scavenging amphipod. From the results of this study, it was concluded that microbial populations in benthic environments can demonstrate significant metabolic activity under deep-ocean conditions of temperature and pressure. Furthermore, rates of microbial activity in the guts of benthic macrofauna are potentially more rapid than in surrounding deep-sea sediments. PMID:6127054

  7. Exponential random simplicial complexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuev, Konstantin; Eisenberg, Or; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2015-11-01

    Exponential random graph models have attracted significant research attention over the past decades. These models are maximum-entropy ensembles subject to the constraints that the expected values of a set of graph observables are equal to given values. Here we extend these maximum-entropy ensembles to random simplicial complexes, which are more adequate and versatile constructions to model complex systems in many applications. We show that many random simplicial complex models considered in the literature can be casted as maximum-entropy ensembles under certain constraints. We introduce and analyze the most general random simplicial complex ensemble {\\boldsymbol{? }} with statistically independent simplices. Our analysis is simplified by the observation that any distribution {{P}}(O) on any collection of objects {O}=\\{O\\}, including graphs and simplicial complexes, is maximum-entropy subject to the constraint that the expected value of -{ln}{{P}}(O) is equal to the entropy of the distribution. With the help of this observation, we prove that ensemble {\\boldsymbol{? }} is maximum-entropy subject to the two types of constraints which fix the expected numbers of simplices and their boundaries.

  8. Geographic Distribution of Habitat, Development, and Population Growth Rates of the Asian Citrus Psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico

    PubMed Central

    López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J.; Robles-García, Pedro L.; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

    2013-01-01

    The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion. PMID:24735280

  9. Population Growth Rates of Reef Sharks with and without Fishing on the Great Barrier Reef: Robust Estimation with Multiple Models

    PubMed Central

    Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R.; Robbins, William D.

    2011-01-01

    Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing. PMID:21966402

  10. Evolution of invasive traits in nonindigenous species: increased survival and faster growth in invasive populations of rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus)

    PubMed Central

    Sargent, Lindsey W; Lodge, David M

    2014-01-01

    The importance of evolution in enhancing the invasiveness of species is not well understood, especially in animals. To evaluate evolution in crayfish invasions, we tested for differences in growth rate, survival, and response to predators between native and invaded range populations of rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus). We hypothesized that low conspecific densities during introductions into lakes would select for increased investment in growth and reproduction in invasive populations. We reared crayfish from both ranges in common garden experiments in lakes and mesocosms, the latter in which we also included treatments of predatory fish presence and food quality. In both lake and mesocosm experiments, O. rusticus from invasive populations had significantly faster growth rates and higher survival than individuals from the native range, especially in mesocosms where fish were present. There was no influence of within-range collection location on growth rate. Egg size was similar between ranges and did not affect crayfish growth. Our results, therefore, suggest that growth rate, which previous work has shown contributes to strong community-level impacts of this invasive species, has diverged since O. rusticus was introduced to the invaded range. This result highlights the need to consider evolutionary dynamics in invasive species mitigation strategies. PMID:25469173

  11. Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Stapley, Jessica; Garcia, Milton; Andrews, Robin M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years’ southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population’s future persistence. PMID:25671423

  12. On the Matrix Exponential Function

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hou, Shui-Hung; Hou, Edwin; Pang, Wan-Kai

    2006-01-01

    A novel and simple formula for computing the matrix exponential function is presented. Specifically, it can be used to derive explicit formulas for the matrix exponential of a general matrix A satisfying p(A) = 0 for a polynomial p(s). It is ready for use in a classroom and suitable for both hand as well as symbolic computation.

  13. Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( ? ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

  14. Birth weight and longitudinal growth in infants born below 32?weeks’ gestation: a UK population study

    PubMed Central

    Cole, Tim J; Statnikov, Yevgeniy; Santhakumaran, Shalini; Pan, Huiqi; Modi, Neena

    2014-01-01

    Objective To describe birth weight and postnatal weight gain in a contemporaneous population of babies born <32?weeks’ gestation, using routinely captured electronic clinical data. Design Anonymised longitudinal weight data from 2006 to 2011. Setting National Health Service neonatal units in England. Methods Birth weight centiles were constructed using the LMS method, and longitudinal weight gain was summarised as mean growth curves for each week of gestation until discharge, using SITAR (Superimposition by Translation and Rotation) growth curve analysis. Results Data on 103?194 weights of 5009 babies born from 22–31?weeks’ gestation were received from 40 neonatal units. At birth, girls weighed 6.6% (SE 0.4%) less than boys (p<0.0001). For babies born at 31?weeks’ gestation, weight fell after birth by an average of 258?g, with the nadir on the 8th postnatal day. The rate of weight gain then increased to a maximum of 28.4?g/d or 16.0?g/kg/d after 3?weeks. Conversely for babies of 22 to 28?weeks’ gestation, there was on average no weight loss after birth. At all gestations, babies tended to cross weight centiles downwards for at least 2?weeks. Conclusions In very preterm infants, mean weight crosses centiles downwards by at least two centile channel widths. Postnatal weight loss is generally absent in those born before 29?weeks, but marked in those born later. Assigning an infant's target centile at birth is potentially harmful as it requires rapid weight gain and should only be done once weight gain has stabilised. The use of electronic data reflects contemporary medical management. PMID:23934365

  15. Power Policy 21 Century: Growth of the Population, Economics, Ecology and Entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prisniakov, Vladimir

    2002-01-01

    but energy consumed by a man will be a limiting factor. Obtained values of changing in the quantity of population as well as of the consumed fuel quantity in the 21 century have been analysed. The period was defined (2005-2085) when energy hungry is possible due to a higher rate of a human reproduction comparing to the rates of energy consumption. From new position, the laws of the Earth population growth are analysed, based on the equality of the quantity of dying people to the quantity of those bornyears ago, whereis life expectancy. investigated on the base of Second law of thermodynamics. The equation of money exchange dY = (V/p)dM in going from quantity real GNP Y to consumption fuel equivalent E=pd Y takes the form: dE =VdM. General correlation between S and M is proposed: dS = (HV/T)dM, where H is enthalpy; V is velocity of money; T is temperature; p is total prices,is capacity of manufacture resources. This equation shows direction of the spontaneity development of economical processes as part of general law Universe. The original equation of removing from information to matter equation enables to control output natural resources by economic laws, and to control of activities for the restoration wrecked nature.This equation shows the direction of the spontaneity development of economical processes as part of a general Universal law. into account value of expenditure on ecology as part of price and overstated price indexes. The criterions allow to discover numerical values of a stock of money, ecology part of price, velocity of money, value of the taxes, which ensure sustainable development. These equations enable to control output natural resources by economic laws, and to control activities for the restoration of wrecked nature.

  16. Latino Population Growth, Characteristics, and Settlement Trends: Implications for Social Work Education in a Dynamic Political Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vidal de Haymes, Maria; Kilty, Keith M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper identifies a number of significant contemporary trends in the Latino population, including the striking growth of the community, new points of entry and settlement for recent immigrants, the mixed-status nature of families, and the increase in the proportion of U.S. households that speak Spanish. The implications of these trends for…

  17. Fish growth and degree-days I: selecting a base temperature for a within-population study

    E-print Network

    Venturelli, Paul

    ARTICLE Fish growth and degree-days I: selecting a base temperature for a within-population study Kyle A. Chezik, Nigel P. Lester, and Paul A. Venturelli Abstract: Degree-days (DD) are an increasingly energy that an ectotherm has experienced can be quantified using a degree-day approach (also known

  18. Potential for population growth of the small hive beetle Aethina Tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) on diets of pollen dough and oranges

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The small hive beetle Aethina tumida Murray, is an African native that has become a serious pest of honey bees in North America and Australia. The beetle is capable of rapid population growth on pollen, honey, and bee brood. It is also capable of feeding and reproducing on various kinds of fruit, ...

  19. Bioconvective patterns, synchrony, and survival. [in light-limited growth model of motile algae culture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noever, David A.

    1990-01-01

    With and without bioconvective pattern formation, a theoretical model predicts growth in light-limited cultures of motile algae. At the critical density for pattern formation, the resulting doubly exponential population curves show an inflection. Such growth corresponds quantitatively to experiments in mechanically unstirred cultures. This attaches survival value to synchronized pattern formation.

  20. Carbon isotope fractionation by thermophilic phototrophic sulfur bacteria: evidence for autotrophic growth in natural populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Madigan, M. T.; Takigiku, R.; Lee, R. G.; Gest, H.; Hayes, J. M.

    1989-01-01

    Purple phototrophic bacteria of the genus Chromatium can grow as either photoautotrophs or photoheterotrophs. To determine the growth mode of the thermophilic Chromatium species, Chromatium tepidum, under in situ conditions, we have examined the carbon isotope fractionation patterns in laboratory cultures of this organism and in mats of C. tepidum which develop in sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park. Isotopic analysis (13C/12C) of total carbon, carotenoid pigments, and bacteriochlorophyll from photoautotrophically grown cultures of C. tepidum yielded 13C fractionation factors near -20%. Cells of C. tepidum grown on excess acetate, wherein synthesis of the Calvin cycle enzyme ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase) was greatly repressed, were isotopically heavier, fractionation factors of ca. -7% being observed. Fractionation factors determined by isotopic analyses of cells and pigment fractions of natural populations of C. tepidum growing in three different sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park were approximately -20%, indicating that this purple sulfur bacterium grows as a photoautotroph in nature.

  1. Population Growth, Climate Change and Water Scarcity in the Southwestern United States

    PubMed Central

    Fuller, Amy C.; Harhay, Michael O.

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement In a simple economic model, water scarcity arises as a result of an imbalance between the supply of and demand for water sources. Distribution in this setting is the source of numerous conflicts globally. Approach Already, the Southwestern United States (US) suffers from annual drought and long-standing feud over natural water resources. Results Population growth in the Southwestern United States along with the continued effects of climate change (natural and anthropogenic) predicts a perpetual decline in natural water sources, such as smaller snowpacks, in the coming years. As the increasing number of communities across multiple US states that subsist off of natural water supplies face water shortages with increasing severity, further water conflict will emerge. Such conflicts become especially protracted when the diversion of water from a source of benefit to one community negatively impacts nearby communities of humans and economically vital ecosystems (e.g., marshlands or tributaries). Conclusion/Recommendations The ensuing politics and health effects of these diversions can be complicated and future water policies both domestically and internationally are lacking. To draw attention to and stimulate discussion around the lacking policy discussion domestically, herein we document existing and emerging consequences of watery scarcity in the Southwestern United States and briefly outline past and potential future policy responses. PMID:21479150

  2. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hübner populations to timing and frequency of insecticide treatments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Management strategies for urban and stored-product pests are chosen for a variety of attributes including cost, efficacy and human safety. Low-risk alternatives to traditional neurotoxic insecticides, such as insect growth regulators, may be valuable management options. However, as these products be...

  3. An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hadley, G.L.; Garrott, R.A.; Proffitt, K.M.

    2009-01-01

    Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

  4. Variation in freshwater growth and development among five New England Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations reared in a common environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obedzinski, M.; Letcher, B.H.

    2004-01-01

    We examined phenotypic variation in growth and development from the eyed-egg stage to the age-1+ smolt stage among five New England populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar: East Machias, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, Penobscot, Connecticut) reared in a common laboratory environment. Study populations originated from rivers varying in size, latitude, and level of hatchery supplementation and included one reintroduced population (Connecticut was a recipient of Penobscot origin stock). Phenotypic trait differences were found among populations, and the degree of stock variation depended on ontogeny. Eggs were smaller and hatched sooner in the Penobscot (a northern, intensively managed population), but no stock differences were detected in size or growth efficiency from the onset of exogenous feeding to age 0+ summer. Differences again emerged in age 0+ autumn, with the degree of bimodality in length-frequency distributions differing among stocks; the Connecticut had the highest proportion of upper-mode fish and, ultimately, age-1+ smolts. Although genetic effects could not be entirely separated from maternal effects for egg size variation, it is likely that differences in hatch timing and smolt age had a genetic basis. Early emphasis on age-1+ hatchery-reared smolts in the Connecticut may have led to divergence in smolt age between the Penobscot and Connecticut populations in less than eight generations. ?? 2004 NRC Canada.

  5. Rapid growth and genetic diversity retention in an isolated reintroduced black bear population in the central appalachians

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murphy, Sean M.; Cox, John J.; Clark, Joseph D.; Augustine, Benjamin J.; Hast, John T.; Gibbs, Dan; Strunk, Michael; Dobey, Steven

    2015-01-01

    Animal reintroductions are important tools of wildlife management to restore species to their historical range, and they can also create unique opportunities to study population dynamics and genetics from founder events. We used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study design at the Big South Fork (BSF) area in Kentucky during 2010 and Tennessee during 2012 to estimate the demographic and genetic characteristics of the black bear (Ursus americanus) population that resulted from a reintroduced founding population of 18 bears in 1998. We estimated 38 (95% CI: 31–66) and 190 (95% CI: 170–219) bears on the Kentucky and Tennessee study areas, respectively. Based on the Tennessee abundance estimate alone, the mean annual growth rate was 18.3% (95% CI: 17.4–19.5%) from 1998 to 2012. We also compared the genetic characteristics of bears sampled during 2010–2012 to bears in the population during 2000–2002, 2–4 years following reintroduction, and to the source population. We found that the level of genetic diversity since reintroduction as indicated by expected heterozygosity (HE) remained relatively constant (HE(source, 2004)?=?0.763, HE(BSF, 2000–2002)?=?0.729, HE(BSF, 2010–2012)?=?0.712) and the effective number of breeders (NB) remained low but had increased since reintroduction in the absence of sufficient immigration (NB(BSF, 2000–2002)?=?12, NB(BSF, 2010–2012)?=?35). This bear population appears to be genetically isolated, but contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence of genetic diversity loss or other deleterious genetic effects typically observed from small founder groups. We attribute that to high initial genetic diversity in the founder group combined with overlapping generations and rapid population growth. Although the population remains relatively small, the reintroduction using a small founder group appears to be demographically and genetically sustainable.

  6. Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques

    2015-11-01

    The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ? 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less suitable for fish growth and survival in the initial months after settlement. Environmental conditions in the lagoon appear to allow compensatory growth of the individuals that survive this early demographic bottleneck. The key for the conservation of B. chrysoura probably lies in the identification and restoration of the habitats required by its larvae and juveniles.

  7. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, J.; Monson, D.; Schneider, K.

    2006-01-01

    1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967-71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992-97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves. 2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12-18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10-11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves. 3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1-2 years earlier in the 1990s. 4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation. 5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lx function) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations). 6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation. ?? 2006 The Authors.

  8. Horizontal Correlation Analysis on Exponentiation

    E-print Network

    International Association for Cryptologic Research (IACR)

    Horizontal Correlation Analysis on Exponentiation Christophe Clavier1 , Benoit Feix2 , Georges such as the correlation factor on several segments extracted from a single execution curve of a known message RSA

  9. Influence of volcanic activity on the population genetic structure of Hawaiian Tetragnatha spiders: Fragmentation, rapid population growth and the potential for accelerated evolution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergast, A.G.; Gillespie, R.G.; Roderick, G.K.

    2004-01-01

    Volcanic activity on the island of Hawaii results in a cyclical pattern of habitat destruction and fragmentation by lava, followed by habitat regeneration on newly formed substrates. While this pattern has been hypothesized to promote the diversification of Hawaiian lineages, there have been few attempts to link geological processes to measurable changes in population structure. We investigated the genetic structure of three species of Hawaiian spiders in forests fragmented by a 150-year-old lava flow on Mauna Loa Volcano, island of Hawaii: Tetragnatha quasimodo (forest and lava flow generalist), T. anuenue and T. brevignatha (forest specialists). To estimate fragmentation effects on population subdivision in each species, we examined variation in mitochondrial and nuclear genomes (DNA sequences and allozymes, respectively). Population subdivision was higher for forest specialists than for the generalist in fragments separated by lava. Patterns of mtDNA sequence evolution also revealed that forest specialists have undergone rapid expansion, while the generalist has experienced more gradual population growth. Results confirm that patterns of neutral genetic variation reflect patterns of volcanic activity in some Tetragnatha species. Our study further suggests that population subdivision and expansion can occur across small spatial and temporal scales, which may facilitate the rapid spread of new character states, leading to speciation as hypothesized by H. L. Carson 30 years ago.

  10. Is Radioactive Decay Really Exponential?

    E-print Network

    Aston, Philip J

    2012-01-01

    Radioactive decay of an unstable isotope is widely believed to be exponential. This view is supported by experiments on rapidly decaying isotopes but is more difficult to verify for slowly decaying isotopes. The decay of 14C can be calibrated over a period of 12,550 years by comparing radiocarbon dates with dates obtained from dendrochronology. It is well known that this approach shows that radiocarbon dates of over 3,000 years are in error, which is generally attributed to past variation in atmospheric levels of 14C. We note that predicted atmospheric variation (assuming exponential decay) does not agree with results from modelling, and that theoretical quantum mechanics does not predict exact exponential decay. We give mathematical arguments that non-exponential decay should be expected for slowly decaying isotopes and explore the consequences of non-exponential decay. We propose an experimental test of this prediction of non-exponential decay for 14C. If confirmed, a foundation stone of current dating meth...

  11. Is Radioactive Decay Really Exponential?

    E-print Network

    Philip J. Aston

    2012-04-26

    Radioactive decay of an unstable isotope is widely believed to be exponential. This view is supported by experiments on rapidly decaying isotopes but is more difficult to verify for slowly decaying isotopes. The decay of 14C can be calibrated over a period of 12,550 years by comparing radiocarbon dates with dates obtained from dendrochronology. It is well known that this approach shows that radiocarbon dates of over 3,000 years are in error, which is generally attributed to past variation in atmospheric levels of 14C. We note that predicted atmospheric variation (assuming exponential decay) does not agree with results from modelling, and that theoretical quantum mechanics does not predict exact exponential decay. We give mathematical arguments that non-exponential decay should be expected for slowly decaying isotopes and explore the consequences of non-exponential decay. We propose an experimental test of this prediction of non-exponential decay for 14C. If confirmed, a foundation stone of current dating methods will have been removed, requiring a radical reappraisal both of radioisotope dating methods and of currently predicted dates obtained using these methods.

  12. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    PubMed

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. PMID:25760037

  13. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. PMID:25760037

  14. Growth, population structure, and reproduction of western pond turtles (Actinemys marmorata) on the central coast of California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Germano, D.J.; Rathbun, G.B.

    2008-01-01

    We studied the population structure and growth of western pond turtles (Actinemys marmorata) at Vandenberg Air Force Base along the coast of central California in April 1995 and June 1996. We captured 179 individuals (115 males, 27 females) from 7 ponds during 26 days of trapping. Many turtles were adult-sized, but based on scute annuli, 74% were < 10 years of age, including many 2- to 3-year-olds. This population structure likely was due to a relatively fast growth rate, especially compared with closely related aquatic turtles in eastern North America. Mean clutch size was 5.2, but 66.7% of females were gravid, and 1 female produced 2 clutches. These reproductive data are similar to those reported for other populations in the southern portion of the species' range. Females reached reproductive maturity as early as 4 years of age. The relatively mild temperatures of California's Mediterranean climate, especially when compared to the seasonal extremes in more continental and northern regions of North America, may explain the different growth rates and population characteristics of freshwater turtles from these 2 regions of North America. ?? 2008 Chelonian Research Foundation.

  15. A white-box model of S-shaped and double S-shaped single-species population growth

    PubMed Central

    Kalmykov, Lev V.

    2015-01-01

    Complex systems may be mechanistically modelled by white-box modeling with using logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata. Mathematical models of complex systems are of three types: black-box (phenomenological), white-box (mechanistic, based on the first principles) and grey-box (mixtures of phenomenological and mechanistic models). Most basic ecological models are of black-box type, including Malthusian, Verhulst, Lotka–Volterra models. In black-box models, the individual-based (mechanistic) mechanisms of population dynamics remain hidden. Here we mechanistically model the S-shaped and double S-shaped population growth of vegetatively propagated rhizomatous lawn grasses. Using purely logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata we create a white-box model. From a general physical standpoint, the vegetative propagation of plants is an analogue of excitation propagation in excitable media. Using the Monte Carlo method, we investigate a role of different initial positioning of an individual in the habitat. We have investigated mechanisms of the single-species population growth limited by habitat size, intraspecific competition, regeneration time and fecundity of individuals in two types of boundary conditions and at two types of fecundity. Besides that, we have compared the S-shaped and J-shaped population growth. We consider this white-box modeling approach as a method of artificial intelligence which works as automatic hyper-logical inference from the first principles of the studied subject. This approach is perspective for direct mechanistic insights into nature of any complex systems. PMID:26038717

  16. Role of Rate of Specific Growth Rate in Different Growth Processes: A First Principle Approach

    E-print Network

    Biswas, Dibyendu; Patra, Sankar Nayaran

    2015-01-01

    In the present communication, effort is given for the development of a common platform that helps to address several growth processes found in literature. Based on first principle approach, the role of rate of specific growth rate in different growth processes has been considered in an unified manner. It is found that different growth equations can be derived from the same rate equation of specific growth rate. The dependence of growth features of different growth processes on the parameters of the rate equation of specific growth rate has been examined in detail. It is found that competitive environment may increase the saturation level of population size. The exponential growth could also be addressed in terms of two important factors of growth dynamics, as reproduction and competition. These features are, most probably, not reported earlier.

  17. Computing the Action of the Matrix Exponential, with an Application to Exponential Integrators

    E-print Network

    Higham, Nicholas J.

    Computing the Action of the Matrix Exponential, with an Application to Exponential Integrators Awad­511 COMPUTING THE ACTION OF THE MATRIX EXPONENTIAL, WITH AN APPLICATION TO EXPONENTIAL INTEGRATORS AWAD H. AL

  18. Exponential differential equations Some applications and motivation

    E-print Network

    Pillay, Anand

    Exponential differential equations The theory Some applications and motivation Exponential Differential Equations of Semiabelian Varieties Jonathan Kirby University of Oxford and University of Illinois at Chicago Differential Fields meeting Leeds, 9th June 2007 Jonathan Kirby Exponential Differential Equations

  19. Population dynamics, growth and production of Sigara selecta (Fieber, 1848) (Hemiptera, Corixidae)

    E-print Network

    Murcia, Universidad de

    , University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain SUMMARY 1. This is the first study on the life cycle, growth Growth method. Keywords: growth rate, life cycle, multivoltinism, production methods, saline corixids distribution of several closely related water-boatmen species in saline waters (Sa- vage, 1979; Krebs, 1982

  20. Clonal Variation in Growth Plasticity within a Bosmina longirostris Population: The Potential for Resistance to Toxic Cyanobacteria

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Xiaodong; Li, Qingmei; Liang, Huishuang; Zhao, Shiye; Zhang, Lihua; Zhao, Yunlong; Chen, Liqiao; Yang, Wei; Xiang, Xingyu

    2013-01-01

    Many aquatic organisms respond phenotypically, through morphological, behavioral, and physiological plasticity, to environmental changes. The small-size cladoceran Bosminalongirostris, a dominant zooplankter in eutrophic waters, displayed reduced growth rates in response to the presence of a toxic cyanobacterium, Microcystisaeruginosa, in their diets. The magnitude of growth reduction differed among 15 clones recently isolated from a single population. A significant interaction between clone and food type indicated a genetic basis for the difference in growth plasticity. The variation in phenotypic plasticity was visualized by plotting reaction norms with two diets. The resistance of each clone to dietary cyanobacteria was measured as the relative change in growth rates on the “poor” diet compared with the “good” diet. The enhanced resistance to M. aeruginosa in B. longirostris was derived from both the reduced slope of reaction norms and the increased mean growth rates with two diets. The large clonal variation within a B. longirostris population may contribute to local adaptation to toxic cyanobacteria and influence ecosystem function via clonal succession. PMID:24039976

  1. Population structure, sex ratio and growth of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Decapoda, Penaeidae) from coastal waters of southern Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Grabowski, Raphael Cezar; Simões, Sabrina Morilhas; Castilho, Antonio Leão

    2014-01-01

    Abstract This study evaluated the growth and population structure of Xiphopenaeus kroyeri in Babitonga Bay, southern Brazil. Monthly trawls were conducted from July 2010 through June 2011, using a shrimp boat outfitted with double-rig nets, at depths from 5 to 17 m. Differences from the expected 0.5 sex ratio were determined by applying a Binomial test. A von Bertalanffy growth model was used to estimate the individual growth, and longevity was calculated using its inverted formula. A total of 4,007 individuals were measured, including 1,106 juveniles (sexually immature) and 2,901 adults. Females predominated in the larger size classes. Males and females showed asymptotic lengths of 27.7 mm and 31.4 mm, growth constants of 0.0086 and 0.0070 per day, and longevities of 538 and 661 days, respectively. The predominance of females in larger size classes is the general rule in species of Penaeidae. The paradigm of latitudinal-effect does not appear to apply to seabob shrimp on the southern Brazilian coast, perhaps because of the small proportion of larger individuals, the occurrence of cryptic species, or the intense fishing pressure in this region. The longevity values are within the general range for species of Penaeidae. The higher estimates for longevity in populations at lower latitudes may have occurred because of the growth constants observed at these locations, resulting in overestimation of this parameter. PMID:25561841

  2. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    DOEpatents

    Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

    2015-02-24

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  3. Population demographics of catostomids in large river ecosystems: effects of discharge and temperature on recruitment dynamics and growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Quist, M.C.; Spiegel, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    Catostomids are among the most widespread and ecologically important groups of fishes in North America, particularly in large river systems. Despite their importance, little information is available on their population demographics and even less is known about factors influencing their population dynamics. The objectives of this study were to describe annual mortality, recruitment variation, and growth of eight catostomid species, and to evaluate the effects of discharge and temperature on year-class strength and growth in Iowa rivers. Catostomids were sampled from 3-km reaches in four nonwadable rivers during June–August 2009. Northern hogsucker, Hypentelium nigricans, golden redhorse, Moxostoma erythrurum, and shorthead redhorse, M. macrolepidotum, typically lived 6–8 years, had very stable recruitment, and had high total annual mortality (i.e., 40–60%). Golden redhorse exhibited the fastest growth of all species. Growth of northern hogsucker and shorthead redhorse was intermediate to the other catostomids. Highfin carpsucker, Carpiodes velifer, quillback, Carpiodes cyprinus, and white sucker, Catostomus commersonii, had high growth rates, low mortality (i.e., 25–30%), and relatively stable recruitment. River carpsucker, Carpiodes carpio, and silver redhorse, M. anisurum, had higher maximum ages (up to age 11), slower growth, lower total annual mortality (20–25%), and higher recruitment variability than the other species. Neither discharge nor temperature was strongly related to recruitment of catostomids. In contrast, several interesting patterns were observed with regard to growth. Species (e.g., carpsuckers, Carpiodes spp.) that typically consume prey items most common in fine substrates (e.g., chironomids) had higher growth rates in reaches dominated by sand and silt substrate. Species (e.g., northern hogsucker) that consume prey associated with large substrates (e.g., plecopterans) had much faster growth in reaches with a high proportion of rocky substrates. Temperature was weakly related to growth of catostomids; however, discharge explained a substantial amount of the variation in growth of nearly all species. Results of this study provide important information on the autecology of catostomids that can be used for comparison among species and systems. These data also suggest that connection of rivers with their floodplain is an important feature for catostomids in temperate river systems.

  4. In a long-term experimental demography study, excluding ungulates reversed invader's explosive population growth rate and restored natives

    PubMed Central

    Kalisz, Susan; Spigler, Rachel B.; Horvitz, Carol C.

    2014-01-01

    A major goal in ecology is to understand mechanisms that increase invasion success of exotic species. A recent hypothesis implicates altered species interactions resulting from ungulate herbivore overabundance as a key cause of exotic plant domination. To test this hypothesis, we maintained an experimental demography deer exclusion study for 6 y in a forest where the native ungulate Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) is overabundant and Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is aggressively invading. Because population growth is multiplicative across time, we introduce metrics that correctly integrate experimental effects across treatment years, the cumulative population growth rate, ?c, and its geometric mean, ?per-year, the time-averaged annual population growth rate. We determined ?c and ?per-year of the invader and of a common native, Trillium erectum. Our results conclusively demonstrate that deer are required for the success of Alliaria; its projected population trajectory shifted from explosive growth in the presence of deer (?per-year = 1.33) to decline toward extinction where deer are excluded (?per-year = 0.88). In contrast, Trillium’s ?per-year was suppressed in the presence of deer relative to deer exclusion (?per-year = 1.04 vs. 1.20, respectively). Retrospective sensitivity analyses revealed that the largest negative effect of deer exclusion on Alliaria came from rosette transitions, whereas the largest positive effect on Trillium came from reproductive transitions. Deer exclusion lowered Alliaria density while increasing Trillium density. Our results provide definitive experimental support that interactions with overabundant ungulates enhance demographic success of invaders and depress natives’ success, with broad implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide. PMID:24616522

  5. In a long-term experimental demography study, excluding ungulates reversed invader's explosive population growth rate and restored natives.

    PubMed

    Kalisz, Susan; Spigler, Rachel B; Horvitz, Carol C

    2014-03-25

    A major goal in ecology is to understand mechanisms that increase invasion success of exotic species. A recent hypothesis implicates altered species interactions resulting from ungulate herbivore overabundance as a key cause of exotic plant domination. To test this hypothesis, we maintained an experimental demography deer exclusion study for 6 y in a forest where the native ungulate Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) is overabundant and Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is aggressively invading. Because population growth is multiplicative across time, we introduce metrics that correctly integrate experimental effects across treatment years, the cumulative population growth rate, ?c, and its geometric mean, ?per-year, the time-averaged annual population growth rate. We determined ?c and ?per-year of the invader and of a common native, Trillium erectum. Our results conclusively demonstrate that deer are required for the success of Alliaria; its projected population trajectory shifted from explosive growth in the presence of deer (?per-year = 1.33) to decline toward extinction where deer are excluded (?per-year = 0.88). In contrast, Trillium's ?per-year was suppressed in the presence of deer relative to deer exclusion (?per-year = 1.04 vs. 1.20, respectively). Retrospective sensitivity analyses revealed that the largest negative effect of deer exclusion on Alliaria came from rosette transitions, whereas the largest positive effect on Trillium came from reproductive transitions. Deer exclusion lowered Alliaria density while increasing Trillium density. Our results provide definitive experimental support that interactions with overabundant ungulates enhance demographic success of invaders and depress natives' success, with broad implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide. PMID:24616522

  6. Effects of Stochasticity in Early Life History on Steepness and Population Growth Rate Estimates: An Illustration on Atlantic Bluefin Tuna

    PubMed Central

    Simon, Maximilien; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Bonhommeau, Sylvain; Gaertner, Daniel; Brodziak, Jon; Etienne, Marie-Pierre

    2012-01-01

    The intrinsic population growth rate (r) of the surplus production function used in the biomass dynamic model and the steepness (h) of the stock-recruitment relationship used in age-structured population dynamics models are two key parameters in fish stock assessment. There is generally insufficient information in the data to estimate these parameters that thus have to be constrained. We developed methods to directly estimate the probability distributions of r and h for the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus, Scombridae), using all available biological and ecological information. We examined the existing literature to define appropriate probability distributions of key life history parameters associated with intrinsic growth rate and steepness, paying particular attention to the natural mortality for early life history stages. The estimated probability distribution of the population intrinsic growth rate was weakly informative, with an estimated mean r?=?0.77 (±0.53) and an interquartile range of (0.34, 1.12). The estimated distribution of h was more informative, but also strongly asymmetric with an estimated mean h?=?0.89 (±0.20) and a median of 0.99. We note that these two key demographic parameters strongly depend on the distribution of early life history mortality rate (M0), which is known to exhibit high year-to-year variations. This variability results in a widely spread distribution of M0 that affects the distribution of the intrinsic population growth rate and further makes the spawning stock biomass an inadequate proxy to predict recruitment levels. PMID:23119063

  7. Nonparametric regression in exponential families

    E-print Network

    Brown, Lawrence D; Zhou, Harrison H; 10.1214/09-AOS762

    2010-01-01

    Most results in nonparametric regression theory are developed only for the case of additive noise. In such a setting many smoothing techniques including wavelet thresholding methods have been developed and shown to be highly adaptive. In this paper we consider nonparametric regression in exponential families with the main focus on the natural exponential families with a quadratic variance function, which include, for example, Poisson regression, binomial regression and gamma regression. We propose a unified approach of using a mean-matching variance stabilizing transformation to turn the relatively complicated problem of nonparametric regression in exponential families into a standard homoscedastic Gaussian regression problem. Then in principle any good nonparametric Gaussian regression procedure can be applied to the transformed data. To illustrate our general methodology, in this paper we use wavelet block thresholding to construct the final estimators of the regression function. The procedures are easily i...

  8. Exponential self-replication enabled through a fibre elongation/breakage mechanism

    PubMed Central

    Colomb-Delsuc, Mathieu; Mattia, Elio; Sadownik, Jan W.; Otto, Sijbren

    2015-01-01

    Self-replicating molecules are likely to have played a central role in the origin of life. Most scenarios of Darwinian evolution at the molecular level require self-replicators capable of exponential growth, yet only very few exponential replicators have been reported to date and general design criteria for exponential replication are lacking. Here we show that a peptide-functionalized macrocyclic self-replicator exhibits exponential growth when subjected to mild agitation. The replicator self-assembles into elongated fibres of which the ends promote replication and fibre growth. Agitation results in breakage of the growing fibres, generating more fibre ends. Our data suggest a mechanism in which mechanical energy promotes the liberation of the replicator from the inactive self-assembled state, thereby overcoming self-inhibition that prevents the majority of self-replicating molecules developed to date from attaining exponential growth. PMID:26081104

  9. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  10. Predators with multiple ontogenetic niche shifts have limited potential for population growth and top-down control of their prey.

    PubMed

    van Leeuwen, Anieke; Huss, Magnus; Gårdmark, Anna; Casini, Michele; Vitale, Francesca; Hjelm, Joakim; Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M

    2013-07-01

    Catastrophic collapses of top predators have revealed trophic cascades and community structuring by top-down control. When populations fail to recover after a collapse, this may indicate alternative stable states in the system. Overfishing has caused several of the most compelling cases of these dynamics, and in particular Atlantic cod stocks exemplify such lack of recovery. Often, competition between prey species and juvenile predators is hypothesized to explain the lack of recovery of predator populations. The predator is then considered to compete with its prey for one resource when small and to subsequently shift to piscivory. Yet predator life history is often more complex than that, including multiple ontogenetic diet shifts. Here we show that no alternative stable states occur when predators in an intermediate life stage feed on an additional resource (exclusive to the predator) before switching to piscivory, because predation and competition between prey and predator do not simultaneously structure community dynamics. We find top-down control by the predator only when there is no feedback from predator foraging on the additional resource. Otherwise, the predator population dynamics are governed by a bottleneck in individual growth occurring in the intermediate life stage. Therefore, additional resources for predators may be beneficial or detrimental for predator population growth and strongly influence the potential for top-down community control. PMID:23778226

  11. Effects of Conventional and Conservational Tillage Systems on Soybean Growth and Soil Microbial Populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Tillage systems play an important role in crop growth and soil improvement. To determine the best tillage system for the dark soil area of northeast China with dark clay soil type (Millisol), this study was conducted to examine the influence of different tillage systems on soybean growth and soil mi...

  12. PROJECTING THE RESPONSE OF FISH POPULATION GROWTH RATE TO SEDIMENT EXPOSURE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Sediment is one of the main stressors on stream fish populations in Georgia. Here, a quantitative approach relating sediment exposure to stream fish population dynamics is presented, where equations characterize sediment exposure to vital rates, then vital rates are used in a mat...

  13. THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVIY OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE TO REPRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In recent years there has been an increasing interest in using population models in environmental assessments. Matrix population models represent a valuable tool for extrapolating from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to effects on finite populati...

  14. Experimental evolution alters the rate and temporal pattern of population growth in Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a lethal fungal pathogen of amphibians

    PubMed Central

    Voyles, Jamie; Johnson, Leah R; Briggs, Cheryl J; Cashins, Scott D; Alford, Ross A; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F; Speare, Rick; Rosenblum, Erica Bree

    2014-01-01

    Virulence of infectious pathogens can be unstable and evolve rapidly depending on the evolutionary dynamics of the organism. Experimental evolution can be used to characterize pathogen evolution, often with the underlying objective of understanding evolution of virulence. We used experimental evolution techniques (serial transfer experiments) to investigate differential growth and virulence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a fungal pathogen that causes amphibian chytridiomycosis. We tested two lineages of Bd that were derived from a single cryo-archived isolate; one lineage (P10) was passaged 10 times, whereas the second lineage (P50) was passaged 50 times. We quantified time to zoospore release, maximum zoospore densities, and timing of zoospore activity and then modeled population growth rates. We also conducted exposure experiments with a susceptible amphibian species, the common green tree frog (Litoria caerulea) to test the differential pathogenicity. We found that the P50 lineage had shorter time to zoospore production (Tmin), faster rate of sporangia death (ds), and an overall greater intrinsic population growth rate (?). These patterns of population growth in vitro corresponded with higher prevalence and intensities of infection in exposed Litoria caerulea, although the differences were not significant. Our results corroborate studies that suggest that Bd may be able to evolve relatively rapidly. Our findings also challenge the general assumption that pathogens will always attenuate in culture because shifts in Bd virulence may depend on laboratory culturing practices. These findings have practical implications for the laboratory maintenance of Bd isolates and underscore the importance of understanding the evolution of virulence in amphibian chytridiomycosis. PMID:25478154

  15. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use observational data on historical climate and land use, and future climate projections to drive a coupled hydrological-crop simulation model to quantify these changes and asses their impacts.

  16. Quantum properties of exponential states

    SciTech Connect

    Luis, Alfredo

    2007-05-15

    The use of Renyi entropy as an uncertainty measure alternative to variance leads to the study of states with quantum fluctuations below the levels established by Gaussian states, which are the position-momentum minimum uncertainty states according to variance. We examine the quantum properties of states with exponential wave functions, which combine reduced fluctuations with practical feasibility.

  17. Exponential potential versus dark matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckhardt, Donald H.

    1993-10-01

    A two parameter exponential potential explains the anomalous kinematics of galaxies and galaxy clusters without need for the myriad ad hoc dark matter models currently in vogue. It also explains much about the scales and structures of galaxies and galaxy clusters while being quite negligible on the scale of the solar system.

  18. Individual growth and reproductive behavior in a newly established population of northern snakehead (Channa argus), Potomac River, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Landis, A.M.G.; Lapointe, N.W.R.; Angermeier, P.L.

    2011-01-01

    Northern snakehead (Channa argus) were first found in the Potomac River in 2004. In 2007, we documented feeding and reproductive behavior to better understand how this species is performing in this novel environment. From April to October, we used electrofishing surveys to collect data on growth, condition, and gonad weight of adult fish. Growth rates of young were measured on a daily basis for several weeks. Mean length-at-age for Potomac River northern snakehead was lower than for fish from China, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Fish condition was above average during spring and fall, but below average in summer. Below-average condition corresponded to periods of high spawning activity. Gonadosomatic index indicated that females began spawning at the end of April and continued through August. Peak spawning occurred at the beginning of June when average temperatures reached 26??C. Larval fish growth rate, after the transition to exogenous feeding, was 2.3 (SD ?? 0.7) mm (total length, TL) per day. Although Potomac River northern snakehead exhibited lower overall growth rates when compared to other populations, these fish demonstrated plasticity in timing of reproduction and rapid larval growth rates. Such life history characteristics likely contribute to the success of northern snakehead in its new environment and limit managers' options for significant control of its invasion. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010.

  19. Investigations into the effects of environmental and physical variables on the growth of natural and transplanted populations of Ruppia maritima L. s.l. in the Galveston Bay System, Texas 

    E-print Network

    Schubert, William James

    2002-01-01

    The effects of sixteen environmental and physical variables on the growth of six natural populations and on the establishment and growth of transplanted populations of widgeon grass, Ruppia maritima L. s.l., were evaluated ...

  20. The Exponential Phase of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Japan

    E-print Network

    Inaba, Hisashi

    The Exponential Phase of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Japan Hisashi INABA Institute of Population Problems AIDS data. First based on the Japanese AIDS surveillance data, we observe that the cumulated AIDS of infected individuals is about from 10 times to 17 times as much as the size of cumulated AIDS incidence

  1. The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dreitz, V.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Bennetts, R.E.; Kitchens, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    The rate of population growth (lambda) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate lambda for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of lambda from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates lambda using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of lambda differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that lambda of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.

  2. The Relation of Growth to Cognition in a Well-Nourished Preschool Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pollitt, Ernesto; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Reports the results of a multiple regression analysis conducted to determine, in a group of three- to six-year-old children, the magnitude of IQ variance accounted for by physical growth variables and socioeconomic status indicators. (RH)

  3. Adaptation to metal-contaminated soils in populations of the moss, Ceratodon purpureus: Vegetative growth and reproductive expression

    SciTech Connect

    Jules, E.S.; Shaw, A.J. )

    1994-06-01

    Many observations suggest that morphological evolution occurs slowly in bryophytes, and this has been suggested to reflect low genetic diversity within species. Isozyme studies, however, stand in apparent contrast and have shown that bryophytes can contain high levels of genetic variability within and among populations. In light of this conflict, we tested the potential of the moss, Ceratodon purpureus, to undergo adaptive change (i.e., ecotypic differentiation) in response to soils that have been contaminated with high levels of metals for 90 years by measuring gametophytic growth and reproductive expression under experimental conditions. Variation in protonemal growth in sterile culture indicates that plants from one population growing on contaminated soil near a smelter are significantly more tolerant of zinc, cadmium, and lead than plants from uncontaminated sites. Results from a common garden experiment, in which plants were grown on soil from the smelter site, indicate that plants from near the smelter are significantly more tolerant of contaminated soils than plants from uncontaminated sites for vegetative growth. The same experiment suggests that plants from the smelter site are also more tolerant in terms of gametangial production (although we could not test this statistically). Our results demonstrate that C. purpureus has been able to undergo relatively rapid evolution in response to strong selective pressures. 29 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs.

  4. Population Dynamics of a Salmonella Lytic Phage and Its Host: Implications of the Host Bacterial Growth Rate in Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Sílvio B.; Carvalho, Carla; Azeredo, Joana; Ferreira, Eugénio C.

    2014-01-01

    The prevalence and impact of bacteriophages in the ecology of bacterial communities coupled with their ability to control pathogens turn essential to understand and predict the dynamics between phage and bacteria populations. To achieve this knowledge it is essential to develop mathematical models able to explain and simulate the population dynamics of phage and bacteria. We have developed an unstructured mathematical model using delay-differential equations to predict the interactions between a broad-host-range Salmonella phage and its pathogenic host. The model takes into consideration the main biological parameters that rule phage-bacteria interactions likewise the adsorption rate, latent period, burst size, bacterial growth rate, and substrate uptake rate, among others. The experimental validation of the model was performed with data from phage-interaction studies in a 5 L bioreactor. The key and innovative aspect of the model was the introduction of variations in the latent period and adsorption rate values that are considered as constants in previous developed models. By modelling the latent period as a normal distribution of values and the adsorption rate as a function of the bacterial growth rate it was possible to accurately predict the behaviour of the phage-bacteria population. The model was shown to predict simulated data with a good agreement with the experimental observations and explains how a lytic phage and its host bacteria are able to coexist. PMID:25051248

  5. Effects of cultivar and irrigation management on population growth of the twospotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae on greenhouse ivy geranium.

    PubMed

    Opit, G P; Jonas, V M; Williams, K A; Margolies, D C; Nechols, J R

    2001-01-01

    Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine whether different ivy geranium cultivars and different irrigation frequencies influenced population growth of the twospotted spider mite (TSM), Tetranychus urticae. Results showed that mite numbers at harvest (about 4 weeks after plants were artificially infested) were very low on 'Sybil Holmes', but significantly higher on 'Amethyst 96'. Irrigation frequency of ivy geraniums had no measurable effect on TSM populations over a range in which water was applied when pot weight dropped 15, 30 or 45% from container capacity. However, the most frequently irrigated plants (15% treatment) produced as much or more growth than plants that received less water. These plants also had the lowest incidence of oedema. There was no significant interaction between water management and host plant resistance, implying the difference in host plant resistance to TSM between the two cultivars should remain constant, at least within the range of the irrigation frequencies studied. Our findings suggest that growers can take advantage of plant resistance to TSM on ivy geranium cultivars of current commercial importance, and that watering practices can be adjusted to optimize plant production without affecting pest populations. PMID:12455875

  6. Whooping crane (Grus americana) demography and environmental factors in a population growth simulation model 

    E-print Network

    Gil de Weir, Karine

    2006-08-16

    The Whooping Crane (Grus americana) is among North AmericaÂ?s most charismatic species. Between 1938 and 2004, the population that migrates between Aransas National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP), grew from 18 to 217...

  7. Effects of algal concentration and initial density on the population growth of Diaphanosoma celebensis Stingelin (Crustacea, Cladocera)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yan; Xie, Ningxia; Wang, Weiliang

    2009-09-01

    The effects of algal concentration and initial density on the population growth of the estuarine cladocera, Diaphanosoma celebensis Stingelin, were evaluated in an indoor experiment. A 2 × 4 layout that included two algal concentrations ( Chlorella pyrenoidosa, 1 × 106 and 3 × 106 cell/mL) and four inoculation densities (100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L) were established. Diaphanosoma celebensis were reared in 150 mL flasks containing 50 mL of algal medium at 22°C, under salinity of 10 and a photoperiod of 12 h L: 12 h D. The lag phase required to initiate continuous population growth following inoculation was shorter for D. celebensis fed 1 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 300 or 400 ind./L than that for D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100 or 200 ind./L. However, D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100 or 200 ind./L exhibited longer periods of positive population growth. The maximum population densities were 5 875 ± 324, 6 690 ± 691, 7 735 ± 1,121 and 6 365 ± 691 ind./L for D. celebensis fed 1 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively, and 15 070 ± 379, 12 215 ± 648, 11 960 ± 2,551 and 16 130 ± 880 ind./L for D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively. The average daily increasing rates of population were 0.076 ± 0.001, 0.065 ± 0.002, 0.055 ± 0.002 and 0.048 ± 0.003 for D. celebensis fed 1×106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively, and 0.098 ± 0.001, 0.078 ± 0.002, 0.072 ± 0.003 and 0.067 ± 0.003 for D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively. The maximum population density and average daily increasing rate of population increased as the algal concentration increased, whereas an increase in the inoculation density led to a linear decrease in the daily increasing rate of population under both algal concentrations. The results of the present experiment indicate that the algal concentration and inoculation density significantly affect population growth of D. celebensis. Furthermore, the results suggest that the optimal algal concentration and inoculation density for the mass culture of D. celebensis should be 3 × 106 cell/mL and 100 ind./L.

  8. Exponential Size Distribution of von Willebrand Factor

    PubMed Central

    Lippok, Svenja; Obser, Tobias; Müller, Jochen P.; Stierle, Valentin K.; Benoit, Martin; Budde, Ulrich; Schneppenheim, Reinhard; Rädler, Joachim O.

    2013-01-01

    Von Willebrand Factor (VWF) is a multimeric protein crucial for hemostasis. Under shear flow, it acts as a mechanosensor responding with a size-dependent globule-stretch transition to increasing shear rates. Here, we quantify for the first time, to our knowledge, the size distribution of recombinant VWF and VWF-eGFP using a multilateral approach that involves quantitative gel analysis, fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, and total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy. We find an exponentially decaying size distribution of multimers for recombinant VWF as well as for VWF derived from blood samples in accordance with the notion of a step-growth polymerization process during VWF biosynthesis. The distribution is solely described by the extent of polymerization, which was found to be reduced in the case of the pathologically relevant mutant VWF-IIC. The VWF-specific protease ADAMTS13 systematically shifts the VWF size distribution toward smaller sizes. This dynamic evolution is monitored using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy and compared to a computer simulation of a random cleavage process relating ADAMTS13 concentration to the degree of VWF breakdown. Quantitative assessment of VWF size distribution in terms of an exponential might prove to be useful both as a valuable biophysical characterization and as a possible disease indicator for clinical applications. PMID:24010664

  9. Robust exponential memory in Hopfield networks

    E-print Network

    Christopher Hillar; Ngoc M. Tran

    2015-06-05

    The Hopfield recurrent neural network is a classical auto-associative model of memory, in which collections of symmetrically-coupled McCulloch-Pitts neurons interact to perform emergent computation. Although previous researchers have explored the potential of this network to solve combinatorial optimization problems and store memories as attractors of its deterministic dynamics, a basic open problem is to design a family of Hopfield networks with a number of noise-tolerant memories that grows exponentially with neural population size. Here, we discover such networks by minimizing probability flow, a recently proposed objective for estimating parameters in discrete maximum entropy models. By descending the gradient of the convex probability flow, our networks adapt synaptic weights to achieve robust exponential storage, even when presented with vanishingly small numbers of training patterns. In addition to providing a new set of error-correcting codes that achieve Shannon's channel capacity bound, these networks also efficiently solve a variant of the hidden clique problem in computer science, opening new avenues for real-world applications of computational models originating from biology.

  10. Real-Time Exponential Curve Fits Using Discrete Calculus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowe, Geoffrey

    2010-01-01

    An improved solution for curve fitting data to an exponential equation (y = Ae(exp Bt) + C) has been developed. This improvement is in four areas -- speed, stability, determinant processing time, and the removal of limits. The solution presented avoids iterative techniques and their stability errors by using three mathematical ideas: discrete calculus, a special relationship (be tween exponential curves and the Mean Value Theorem for Derivatives), and a simple linear curve fit algorithm. This method can also be applied to fitting data to the general power law equation y = Ax(exp B) + C and the general geometric growth equation y = Ak(exp Bt) + C.

  11. Growth and condition of bluegills in Wisconsin lakes: effects of population density and lake pH

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiener, J.G.; Hanneman, W.R.

    1982-01-01

    Growth and condition of bluegills epomis macrochirusfrom five acidic lakes (pH 5.1-6.0) and six circumneutral lakes (pH 6.7-7.5) in northern Wisconsin were compared. Although mean condition factors and mean back-calculated total lengths at ages 1 to 4 varied significantly among lakes, the differences were not related to lake pH. Rather, the ranks of mean condition factors and back-calculated lengths at ages 2, 3, and 4 were negatively correlated with relative density of bluegills among the lakes. Because of the dominating effect of density, growth rates and condition factors are not useful as indicators of chronic, pH-related stress on bluegill populations.

  12. Discovery of Power-Law Growth in the Self-Renewal of Heterogeneous Glioma Stem Cell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Boman, Bruce M.; Fields, Jeremy Z.; Awaji, Miharu; Kozano, Hiroko; Tamura, Ryoi; Yamamoto, Seiji; Ogata, Toru; Yamada, Mitsuhiko; Endo, Shunro; Kurimoto, Masanori; Kuroda, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Background Accumulating evidence indicates that cancer stem cells (CSCs) drive tumorigenesis. This suggests that CSCs should make ideal therapeutic targets. However, because CSC populations in tumors appear heterogeneous, it remains unclear how CSCs might be effectively targeted. To investigate the mechanisms by which CSC populations maintain heterogeneity during self-renewal, we established a glioma sphere (GS) forming model, to generate a population in which glioma stem cells (GSCs) become enriched. We hypothesized, based on the clonal evolution concept, that with each passage in culture, heterogeneous clonal sublines of GSs are generated that progressively show increased proliferative ability. Methodology/Principal Findings To test this hypothesis, we determined whether, with each passage, glioma neurosphere culture generated from four different glioma cell lines become progressively proliferative (i.e., enriched in large spheres). Rather than monitoring self-renewal, we measured heterogeneity based on neurosphere clone sizes (#cells/clone). Log-log plots of distributions of clone sizes yielded a good fit (r>0.90) to a straight line (log(% total clones) = k*log(#cells/clone)) indicating that the system follows a power-law (y = xk) with a specific degree exponent (k = ?1.42). Repeated passaging of the total GS population showed that the same power-law was maintained over six passages (CV = ?1.01 to ?1.17). Surprisingly, passage of either isolated small or large subclones generated fully heterogeneous populations that retained the original power-law-dependent heterogeneity. The anti-GSC agent Temozolomide, which is well known as a standard therapy for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), suppressed the self-renewal of clones, but it never disrupted the power-law behavior of a GS population. Conclusions/Significance Although the data above did not support the stated hypothesis, they did strongly suggest a novel mechanism that underlies CSC heterogeneity. They indicate that power-law growth governs the self-renewal of heterogeneous glioma stem cell populations. That the data always fit a power-law suggests that: (i) clone sizes follow continuous, non-random, and scale-free hierarchy; (ii) precise biologic rules that reflect self-organizing emergent behaviors govern the generation of neurospheres. That the power-law behavior and the original GS heterogeneity are maintained over multiple passages indicates that these rules are invariant. These self-organizing mechanisms very likely underlie tumor heterogeneity during tumor growth. Discovery of this power-law behavior provides a mechanism that could be targeted in the development of new, more effective, anti-cancer agents. PMID:26284929

  13. Simulated Warming Differentially Affects the Growth and Competitive Ability of Centaurea maculosa Populations from Home and Introduced Ranges

    PubMed Central

    He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competitive effects, and competitive responses of C. maculosa populations from Europe (home range) and North America (introduced range) under two different temperatures. The warming-induced inhibitory effects on the growth of C. maculosa alone were stronger in Europe than in North America. The competitive ability of C. maculosa plants from North America was greater than that of plants from Europe under the ambient condition whereas this competitive ability followed the opposite direction under the warming condition, suggesting that warming may enable European C. maculosa to be more invasive. Across two continents, warming treatment increased the competitive advantage instead of the growth advantage of C. maculosa, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate C. maculosa invasions through altering competitive outcomes between C. maculosa and its neighbors. Additionally, the growth response of C. maculosa to warming could predict its ability to avoid being suppressed by its neighbors. PMID:22303485

  14. Admissibility and nonuniform exponential trichotomies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barreira, Luis; Dragi?evi?, Davor; Valls, Claudia

    2015-01-01

    For a nonautonomous dynamics defined by a sequence of linear operators acting on a Banach space, we show that the notion of a nonuniform exponential trichotomy can be completely characterized in terms of admissibility properties. This refers to the existence of bounded solutions under any bounded time-dependent perturbation of certain homotheties of the original dynamics. We also consider the more restrictive notion of a strong nonuniform exponential trichotomy and again we give a characterization in terms of admissibility properties. We emphasize that both notions are ubiquitous in the context of ergodic theory. As a nontrivial application, we show in a simple manner that the two notions of trichotomy persist under sufficiently small linear perturbations. Finally, we obtain a corresponding characterization of nonuniformly partially hyperbolic sets.

  15. RADIATION EFFECTS ON THE GROWTH RATE AND CELL POPULATION KINETICS OF ACTIVELY GROWING AND DORMANT ROOTS OF TRADESCANTIA PALUDOSA

    PubMed Central

    Van't Hof, Jack; Sparrow, A. H.

    1965-01-01

    Actively growing and dormant roots of Tradescantia paludosa were exposed to x-rays to compare the radiosensitivity of an actively proliferating tissue with that of one which is not active but is potentially proliferative. The level of effect was ascertained by the degree of change in the rate of root growth 4 days after exposure. Cell population kinetics were measured in control and in irradiated roots to determine whether or not a change was produced either in the number of proliferating cells or in the mitotic cycle duration which was sufficient to explain the altered rate of root growth. Nuclear volumes were also measured to provide an estimate of the relative total target size in actively growing vs. dormant roots. Tritiated thymidine was used to measure the cycle duration and the proportion of cells synthesizing DNA. The results showed that 184 and 305 r respectively were required to reduce the linear root growth rate to 37 per cent of that of the control for actively growing and dormant roots. Mitotic cycle duration, measured 4 days after x-ray exposure, was the same as in the control. The number of proliferating cells, however, was reduced. The rate of cell production in the irradiated roots was reduced to approximately one-half that of the controls. The average nuclear volumes of active and dormant roots were 733 and 491 µ3 respectively; thus the difference in the number of roentgens required to reduce growth to 37 per cent of that of the control can be attributed to the different average nuclear volumes. Therefore, the experiments suggest that part if not most of the differences in sensitivity between an actively dividing and an essentially non-dividing meristematic cell population resides in their different average nuclear volumes. Thus the law of Bergonie and Tribondeau needs to be reinterpreted, since the basic reason for the differences is secondary to whether or not the meristematic cells are proliferating. PMID:5859017

  16. Impacts of population growth and economic development on water quality of a lake: case study of Lake Victoria Kenya water.

    PubMed

    Juma, Dauglas Wafula; Wang, Hongtao; Li, Fengting

    2014-04-01

    Anthropogenic-induced water quality pollution is a major environmental problem in freshwater ecosystems today. As a result of this, eutrophication of lakes occurs. Population and economic development are key drivers of water resource pollution. To evaluate how growth in the riparian population and in the gross domestic product (GDP) with unplanned development affects the water quality of the lake, this paper evaluates Lake Victoria Kenyan waters basin. Waters quality data between 1990 and 2012 were analyzed along with reviews of published literature, papers, and reports. The nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N), soluble phosphorus (PO4-P), chlorophyll a, and Secchi transparencies were evaluated as they are key water quality indicators. The NO3-N increased from 10 ?g l(-1) in 1990 to 98 ?g 1(-1) in 2008, while PO4-P increased from 4 ?g l(-1) in 1990 to 57 ?g l(-1) in 2008. The population and economic growth of Kenya are increasing with both having minimums in 1990 of 24.143 million people and 12.18 billion US dollars, to maximums in 2010 of 39.742 million people and 32.163 billion US dollars, respectively. A Secchi transparency is reducing with time, indicating an increasing pollution. This was confirmed by an increase in aquatic vegetation using an analysis of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images of 2000 and 2012 of Kenyan waters. This study found that increasing population and GDP increases pollution discharge thus polluting lakes. One of major factors causing lake water pollution is the unplanned or poor waste management policy and service. PMID:24442964

  17. Generalized aphid population growth models with immigration and cumulative-size dependent dynamics.

    PubMed

    Matis, James H; Kiffe, Thomas R; Matis, Timothy I; Chattopadhyay, C

    2008-10-01

    Mechanistic models in which the per-capita death rate of a population is proportional to cumulative past size have been shown to describe adequately the population size curves for a number of aphid species. Such previous cumulative-sized based models have not included immigration. The inclusion of immigration is suggested biologically as local aphid populations are initiated by migration of winged aphids and as reproduction is temperature-dependent. This paper investigates two models with constant immigration, one with continuous immigration and the other with restricted immigration. Cases of the latter are relatively simple to fit to data. The results from these two immigration models are compared for data sets on the mustard aphid in India. PMID:18715544

  18. Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality

    PubMed Central

    Putterman, Louis; Weil, David N.

    2013-01-01

    We construct a matrix showing the share of the year 2000 population in every country that is descended from people in different source countries in the year 1500. Using the matrix to adjust indicators of early development so they reflect the history of a population’s ancestors rather than the history of the place they live today greatly improves the ability of those indicators to predict current GDP. The variance of early development history of a country’s inhabitants is a good predictor for current inequality, with ethnic groups originating in regions having longer histories of organized states tending to be at the upper end of a country’s income distribution. PMID:24478530

  19. Lower Virus Infections in Varroa destructor-Infested and Uninfested Brood and Adult Honey Bees (Apis mellifera) of a Low Mite Population Growth Colony Compared to a High Mite Population Growth Colony

    PubMed Central

    Emsen, Berna; Hamiduzzaman, Mollah Md.; Goodwin, Paul H.; Guzman-Novoa, Ernesto

    2015-01-01

    A comparison was made of the prevalence and relative quantification of deformed wing virus (DWV), Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV), black queen cell virus (BQCV), Kashmir bee virus (KBV), acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV) and sac brood virus (SBV) in brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera) from colonies selected for high (HMP) and low (LMP) Varroa destructor mite population growth. Two viruses, ABPV and SBV, were never detected. For adults without mite infestation, DWV, IAPV, BQCV and KBV were detected in the HMP colony; however, only BQCV was detected in the LMP colony but at similar levels as in the HMP colony. With mite infestation, the four viruses were detected in adults of the HMP colony but all at higher amounts than in the LMP colony. For brood without mite infestation, DWV and IAPV were detected in the HMP colony, but no viruses were detected in the LMP colony. With mite infestation of brood, the four viruses were detected in the HMP colony, but only DWV and IAPV were detected and at lower amounts in the LMP colony. An epidemiological explanation for these results is that pre-experiment differences in virus presence and levels existed between the HMP and LMP colonies. It is also possible that low V. destructor population growth in the LMP colony resulted in the bees being less exposed to the mite and thus less likely to have virus infections. LMP and HMP bees may have also differed in susceptibility to virus infection. PMID:25723540

  20. First growth curves based on the World Health Organization reference in a Nationally-Representative Sample of Pediatric Population in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): the CASPIAN-III study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization (WHO) is in the process of establishing a new global database on the growth of school children and adolescents. Limited national data exist from Asian children, notably those living in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study aimed to generate the growth chart of a nationally representative sample of Iranian children aged 10–19?years, and to explore how well these anthropometric data match with international growth references. Methods In this nationwide study, the anthropometric data were recorded from Iranian students, aged 10–19?years, who were selected by multistage random cluster sampling from urban and rural areas. Prior to the analysis, outliers were excluded from the features height-for-age and body mass index (BMI)-for-age using the NCHS/WHO cut-offs. The Box-Cox power exponential (BCPE) method was used to calculate height-for-age and BMI-for-age Z-scores for our study participants. Then, children with overweight, obesity, thinness, and severe thinness were identified using the BMI-for-age z-scores. Moreover, stunted children were detected using the height-for-age z-scores. The growth curve of the Iranian children was then generated from the z-scores, smoothed by cubic S-plines. Results The study population comprised 5430 school students consisting of 2312 (44%) participants aged 10–14?years , and 3118 (58%) with 15–19?years of age. Eight percent of the participants had low BMI (thinness: 6% and severe thinness: 2%), 20% had high BMI (overweight: 14% and obesity: 6%), and 7% were stunted. The prevalence rates of low and high BMI were greater in boys than in girls (P?growth curves generated from a national dataset may be included for establishing WHO global database on children’s growth. Similar to most low-and middle income populations, Iranian children aged 10–19?years are facing a double burden of weight disorders, notably under- and over- nutrition, which should be considered in public health policy-making. PMID:22985219

  1. ESTABLISHMENT AND SEEDLING GROWTH OF BIG BLUESTEM AND SWITCHGRASS POPULATIONS DIVERGENTLY SELECTED FOR SEEDLING TILLER NUMBER.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Selection at the seedling stage in grass breeding would be extremely useful if seedling traits are correlated to desired agronomic traits. The objective of this study was to evaluate seedling morphological development, plant growth, and field establishment of big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitma...

  2. Nutrient Acquisition and Population Growth of a Mixotrophic Alga in Axenic and Bacterized Cultures

    E-print Network

    Caron, David

    cultures with a more complex organic substrate resulted in moderate growth and higher maximal abundance abundance was reduced and dissolved phosphorus and ammonia were rapidly released in bacterized cultures and the uptake of N and P released by algal phagotrophy. Subsequent decreases in dissolved N and P following

  3. GENETIC PARAMETERS FOR GROWTH, FEED INTAKE, AND FEEDING BEHAVIOR IN A COMPOSITE POPULATION OF SHEEP

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for growth, feed intake, and feeding behavior in composite rams (1/2 Columbia, 1/4 Hampshire, 1/4 Suffolk). Data were collected from 1986 to 1997 in Pinpointer units on 1,241 rams from 10 to 17 wk of age. Each Pinpointer unit was an el...

  4. A Latent Growth Curve Analysis of Reading Achievement for an At-Risk Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beecher, Constance C.

    2011-01-01

    The development of reading skills from age seven until age 19 was investigated for children who were referred for special education preschool intervention using latent growth curve analysis (n=206). Approximately one-third of the study sample did not require special education services after preschool, providing a natural comparison group. Reading…

  5. Root Growth and Yield of Differing Alfalfa Rooting Populations under Increasing Salinity and Zero Leaching

    E-print Network

    Smith, Steven E.

    with saline water. of the tap root and greater fibrous root mass (BarnesPlants were grown for five successive of the correlation was shown between shoot growth and highly high-fibrous root type was stimulated more at low, but may have undesirable plants would generate more root mass in the less-salineconsequences for users

  6. Beyond birth-weight: early growth and adolescent blood pressure in a Peruvian population

    PubMed Central

    Sterling, Robie; Checkley, William; Gilman, Robert H.; Cabrera, Lilia; Sterling, Charles R.; Bern, Caryn

    2014-01-01

    Background. Longitudinal investigations into the origins of adult essential hypertension have found elevated blood pressure in children to accurately track into adulthood, however the direct causes of essential hypertension in adolescence and adulthood remains unclear. Methods. We revisited 152 Peruvian adolescents from a birth cohort tracked from 0 to 30 months of age, and evaluated growth via monthly anthropometric measurements between 1995 and 1998, and obtained anthropometric and blood pressure measurements 11–14 years later. We used multivariable regression models to study the effects of infantile and childhood growth trends on blood pressure and central obesity in early adolescence. Results. In regression models adjusted for interim changes in weight and height, each 0.1 SD increase in weight for length from 0 to 5 months of age, and 1 SD increase from 6 to 30 months of age, was associated with decreased adolescent systolic blood pressure by 1.3 mm Hg (95% CI ?2.4 to ?0.1) and 2.5 mm Hg (95% CI ?4.9 to 0.0), and decreased waist circumference by 0.6 (95% CI ?1.1 to 0.0) and 1.2 cm (95% CI ?2.3 to ?0.1), respectively. Growth in infancy and early childhood was not significantly associated with adolescent waist-to-hip ratio. Conclusions. Rapid compensatory growth in early life has been posited to increase the risk of long-term cardiovascular morbidities such that nutritional interventions may do more harm than good. However, we found increased weight growth during infancy and early childhood to be associated with decreased systolic blood pressure and central adiposity in adolescence. PMID:25024902

  7. Fungal population levels in soils of cotton fields fertilized with poultry litter and their relationships to soil nutrient concentrations and plant growth parameters

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Fungal population levels in soil and their relationships to nutrient concentrations and plant growth were evaluated in plots on two cotton farms in Mississippi where poultry litter (PL) was applied as a fertilizer to promote its safe disposal. Fungal population levels were estimated by dilution pla...

  8. Agricultural and Forest Entomology (2010), 12, 293299 DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-9563.2010.00478.x Individual growth rates do not predict aphid population densities

    E-print Network

    2010-01-01

    Individual growth rates do not predict aphid population densities under altered atmospheric conditions Edward. 2 Although pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum genotypes exhibit intraspecific variation in population are largely unknown. 3 By rearing single (green, pink) and mixed (green + pink) pea aphid genotypes on red

  9. Population Growth and Hunger. Hearing before the Select Committee on Hunger. House of Representatives, Ninety-Ninth Congress, First Session (June 6, 1985).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Hunger.

    Recommendations and issues concerning population growth rate and its linkage to hunger and malnutrition, family planning programs and U.S. foreign aid are presented in statements from representatives in Congress from the states of Texas, Michigan, Illinois and New York, and also representatives from World Population Society, the Futures Group,…

  10. Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-

    E-print Network

    Creel, Scott

    , Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America Abstract The reintroduction of wolves of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile:female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves

  11. Does gall midge larvae cause pre-dispersal seed mortality and limit cornflower population growth?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koprdova, Stanislava; Bellanger, Solène; Skuhrovec, Ji?í; Darmency, Henri

    2015-11-01

    Many kinds of pests can reduce seed production. Some directly attack seeds before they are released, and some are hosted by the fruit and impact seed ripening and viability indirectly. Pre-dispersal seed mortality may have strong effects on plant population dynamics and evolution. Our goals were to determine to what extent insect-mediated pre-dispersal seed mortality contributes to population-level declines of cornflower, Centaurea cyanus L. We recorded occurrence and abundance of seed-feeding insects on flower heads in twelve cornflower populations. We measured flower head size, number of disc florets, seed production, and seed viability and germination. Larger flower heads had proportionally fewer healthy seeds. Although we observed no visible damage to the C. cyanus seed, the presence of gall midge (Cecidomyiidae) larvae inside the flower head correlated with four times fewer viable seeds. It seems that gall midges could have a significant impact on ovule fertilization, seed abortion and viability of fully developed cornflower seeds. The higher rate of aborted seeds in the presence of gall midge larvae could have been because the larvae extracted resources from the seeds, or because the larvae repelled pollinators. The viability of apparently healthy seeds was 40% lower in flower heads that contained larvae and/or aborted seed. Insect-mediated pre-dispersal mortality could select against evolution toward larger flower head, and have detrimental consequences on seed number, viability and germination, all of which could limit the spread of C. cyanus populations.

  12. The exponentiated exponential mixture and non-mixture cure rate model in the presence of covariates.

    PubMed

    Mazucheli, Josmar; Coelho-Barros, Emílio A; Achcar, Jorge Alberto

    2013-10-01

    This paper presents estimates for the parameters included in long-term mixture and non-mixture lifetime models, applied to analyze survival data when some individuals may never experience the event of interest. We consider the case where the lifetime data have a two-parameters exponentiated exponential distribution. The two-parameter exponentiated exponential or the generalized exponential distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution introduced by [31]. Classical and Bayesian procedures are used to get point and confidence intervals of the unknown parameters. We consider a general survival model where the scale, shape and cured fraction parameters of the exponentiated exponential distribution depends on covariates. PMID:23932336

  13. The impact of a hot sodium ion population on the growth of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in Mercury's magnetotail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gingell, P. W.; Sundberg, T.; Burgess, D.

    2015-07-01

    Observations of Mercury's local plasma environment by MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging have revealed that the planet hosts a strongly asymmetric magnetosphere as a result of an off-axis dipolar or quadrupolar internal field and significant finite Larmor radius effects at the boundary layer between magnetospheric and solar wind plasma environments. One important asymmetry appears in the growth and evolution of Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) waves at the dawn and dusk flanks of the magnetopause. Linear analysis and global hybrid simulations support a dusk-dawn asymmetry in the growth rate caused by finite Larmor radius effects, and indeed, K-H waves have been almost exclusively observed at the dusk magnetopause during northward interplanetary magnetic field. Observations of these K-H waves at sodium gyroscales invite investigation into the impact of the hot planetary sodium ion population, itself distributed preferentially on the dusk flank, on the growth of the K-H instability and associated plasma transport. We present local two-dimensional hybrid simulations of the dusk and dawn boundary layers, with varying magnetospheric sodium ion number density, and examine the associated changes in the growth rates of the K-H instability, K-H wave spectra, and cross-boundary particle transport. We show that gyroresonance between growing K-H vortices and sodium ion gyration introduces a strong spectral peak at sodium gyroscales at the dusk magnetopause, that an increase in sodium ion number density increases dawn-dusk asymmetry of K-H growth rates, and that cross-boundary particle transport decreases with sodium number density at the dawn flank.

  14. Dietary sodium, added salt, and serum sodium associations with growth and depression in the U.S. general population.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Pavel; Leshem, Micah

    2014-08-01

    It is not known why salt is so attractive to humans. Here, guided by hypotheses suggesting that the attraction of salt is conditioned by postingestive benefits, we sought to establish whether there are such benefits in a population by analyzing the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2008 database (n = ~ 10,000). We focus on two potential benefits supported by the literature, growth and moderation of depression, and examine their relationship to sodium, dietary, added at table, and serum. We find that during growth (<18 years), there is a specific increase in adjusted dietary sodium intake, independent of caloric or other electrolyte intakes. We find that adding salt and depression are related. In contrast, and in women only, dietary sodium and depression are inversely related. The relationships are correlational, but we speculate that this constellation may reflect self-medication for depression by adding salt, and that men may be protected by their higher dietary sodium intake. Additional findings are that women add more salt than men below age ~30, after which men add more, and below 40 years of age, serum sodium is lower in women than in men. It remains possible that small but beneficial effects of sodium could condition salt preference and thus contribute to population-wide sodium intake. PMID:24747212

  15. Rational Practices to Manage Boll Weevils Colonization and Population Growth on Family Farms in the Semiárido Region of Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Neves, Robério C. S.; Colares, Felipe; Torres, Jorge B.; Santos, Roberta L.; Bastos, Cristina S.

    2014-01-01

    Because boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boh. develops partially protected inside cotton fruiting structures, once they become established in a field, they are difficult to control, even with nearly continuous insecticide spray. During two cotton-growing seasons in the Semiárido region of Pernambuco State, Brazil, we tested the use of kaolin sprays to disrupt plant colonization through visual cue interference, combined with removal of fallen fruiting bodies to restrain boll weevil population growth after colonization. Kaolin spray under non-choice trials resulted in 2.2×, 4.4×, and 8.6× fewer weevils, oviposition and feeding punctures on kaolin-treated plants, respectively, despite demonstrating no statistical differences for colonization and population growth. Early season sprays in 2010 occurred during a period of rainfall, and hence, under our fixed spraying schedule no significant differences in boll weevil colonization were detected. In 2011, when kaolin sprays were not washed out by rain, delayed boll weevil colonization and reduction on attacked fruiting bodies were observed in eight out of 12 evaluations, and kaolin-treated plots had 2.7× fewer damaged fruiting bodies compared to untreated plots. Adoption of simple measures such as removal of fallen fruiting bodies and prompt reapplication of kaolin sprays after rainfall show promise in reducing boll weevil infestation. PMID:26462942

  16. Association study of fibroblast growth factor 10 (FGF10) polymorphisms with susceptibility to extreme myopia in a Japanese population

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida, Masao; Okada, Eiichi; Nomura, Naoko; Mizuki, Nobuhisa

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The fibroblast growth factor 10 (FGF10) gene polymorphism rs339501 was previously reported to be associated with high myopia in a Chinese population. In the present study, we investigated whether FGF10 polymorphisms are associated with extreme myopia in a Japanese population as well. Methods A total of 433 Japanese patients with extreme myopia (? ?10.00 diopters) and 542 Japanese healthy controls (+1.50 to ?1.50 diopters) were recruited. We genotyped seven tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), including rs339501, in FGF10. We also performed an imputation analysis to evaluate the potential association of ungenotyped FGF10 SNPs, and 34 SNPs were imputed. Results It was found that rs339501 and rs12517396 exhibited the strongest association with extreme myopia (p=3.9 × 10?4, corrected p [Pc]=0.0030). A significant association was also observed for rs10462070 (p=6.5 × 10?4, Pc=0.0059). These three SNPs were in strong linkage disequilibrium (D’ ?0.99, r2 ?0.96). However, the frequency of the A allele of rs339501 was increased in cases compared to controls, which differs from the increased frequency of the G allele in cases in the previous Chinese population. Conclusions Three FGF10 SNPs in complete linkage disequilibrium—rs339501, rs12517396, and rs10462070—were associated with extreme myopia in the Japanese population, and the risk allele of rs339501 differed from the previous Chinese population. Therefore, these three SNPs may not be an important risk factor for susceptibility to extreme myopia. Further studies are needed to elucidate the possible contribution of the FGF10 region in the development of extreme myopia. PMID:24265547

  17. Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

    PubMed Central

    Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile?female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles?females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile?female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

  18. Growth and survival of Escherichia coli and enterococci populations in the macro-alga Cladophora (Chlorophyta)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byappanahalli, M.N.; Shively, D.A.; Nevers, M.B.; Sadowsky, M.J.; Whitman, R.L.

    2003-01-01

    The macro-alga Cladophora glomerata is found in streams and lakes worldwide. High concentrations of Escherichia coli and enterococci have been reported in Cladophora along the Lake Michigan shore. The objective of this study was to determine if Cladophora supported growth of these indicator bacteria. Algal leachate readily supported in vitro multiplication of E. coli and enterococci, suggesting that leachates contain necessary growth-promoting substances. Growth was directly related to the concentration of algal leachate. E. coli survived for over 6 months in dried Cladophora stored at 4°C; residual E. coli grew after mat rehydration, reaching a carrying capacity of 8 log CFU g-1 in 48 h. Results of this study also show that the E. coli strains associated with Cladophora are highly related; in most instances they are genetically different from each other, suggesting that the relationship between E. coli and Cladophora may be casual. These findings indicate that Cladophora provides a suitable environment for indicator bacteria to persist for extended periods and to grow under natural conditions.

  19. Collisional cascading - The limits of population growth in low earth orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kessler, Donald J.

    1991-01-01

    Random collisions between made-made objects in earth orbit will lead to a significant source of orbital debris, but there are a number of uncertainties in these models, and additional analysis and data are required to fully characterize the future environment. However, the nature of these uncertainties are such that while the future environment is uncertain, the fact that collisions will control the future environment is less uncertain. The data that already exist is sufficient to show that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population. Two populations control this process: explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads. Practices are already changing to limit explosions in low earth orbit; it is necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.

  20. Structured populations: immigration, (bi)stability and the net growth rate

    E-print Network

    Farkas, Jozsef Z

    2009-01-01

    We consider a class of physiologically structured population models, a first order nonlinear partial differential equation equipped with a nonlocal boundary condition, with a constant external inflow of individuals. We prove that the linearized system is governed by a quasicontraction semigroup. We also establish that linear stability of equilibrium solutions is governed by a generalized net reproduction function. In a special case of the model ingredients we discuss the nonlinear dynamics of the system when the spectral bound of the linearized operator equals zero, i.e. when linearization does not decide stability. This allows us to demonstrate, through a concrete example, how immigration might be beneficial to the population. In particular, we show that from a nonlinearly unstable positive equilibrium a linearly stable and unstable pair of equilibria bifurcates. In fact, the linearized system exhibits bistability, for a certain range of values of the external inflow, induced potentially by Allee-effect.

  1. Global dimming and urbanization: did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imamovic, A.; Tanaka, K.; Folini, D.; Wild, M.

    2015-11-01

    Global dimming refers to the decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR) observed from the 1960s to the 1980s at different measurement sites all around the world. It is under debate whether anthropogenic aerosols emitted from urban areas close to the measurement sites are mainly responsible for the dimming. In order to assess this urbanization impact on SSR, we use spatially explicit population density data of 0.08° resolution to construct population indices (PI) at 157 high data quality sites. Our study extends previous population-based studies by incorporating distance-weighting as a simple aerosol diffusion model. We measured urbanization in the surrounding of a site as the PI change form 1960 to 1990 and found no negative correlation with the corresponding SSR trends from 1964 to 1989 for the 92 sites in Europe and Japan. For the 39 sites in China the correlation coefficients are significant at the 5 % level and reach around -0.35, while for the 26 remaining Asian, mostly Russian sites the correlation coefficients reach around -0.55 at the 1 % significance level. Results are similar, when the absolute levels of PIs are taken as an indicator for urbanization. Our findings call into question the existence of an urbanization effect for the sites in Europe and Japan, while such an effect cannot be ruled out for the sites in Asia, especially in Russia.

  2. Strong Reductions and Immunity for Exponential Time

    E-print Network

    Stephan, Frank

    Strong Reductions and Immunity for Exponential Time Marcus Schaefer # and Frank Stephan + Abstract This paper investigates the relation between immunity and hardness in exponential time. The idea continued successfully in complexity theory [10, 15, 21]. We study three notions of immunity for exponential

  3. The Matrix Exponential Gordon K. Smyth

    E-print Network

    Smyth, Gordon K.

    The Matrix Exponential Gordon K. Smyth Department of Mathematics University of Queensland 17 March 1997 One of the most frequently occurring matrix functions is the matrix exponential, defined for a square matrix A by eAt = j=0 (At)j j! . The matrix exponential arises from the differential equation x

  4. Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, D.B.

    1993-10-01

    Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled C0{sub 2} climates was estimated.

  5. Genetic and phenotypic (co)variances for growth and carcass traits of purebred and composite populations of beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Gregory, K E; Cundiff, L V; Koch, R M

    1995-07-01

    Least squares means, genetic (sigma g), and phenotypic (sigma p) standard deviations, and phenotypic coefficients of variation (CV) were estimated on an age-constant basis for growth, carcass, and meat traits of castrate males from 12 breed groups combined, for 9 purebreds combined, and for the F3 generation of three composite populations combined to which the nine purebreds contributed. Also, heritabilities (h2) and genetic (rg) and phenotypic (rp) correlations were estimated among growth, carcass, and meat traits for all breed groups combined involving 1,594 individuals that were the progeny of 306 sires (214 purebred and 92 composites). Coefficients of variation and sigma g generally were similar for composites and contributing purebreds for growth and size-related traits. For traits relating to carcass composition and meat quality, means, sigma p, or CV for composites and contributing purebreds generally were similar. Generally, estimates of sigma g and h2 were similar among all breed groups combined, contributing purebreds combined, and composites combined. Generally, rg were high among all measures of carcass fat, indicating major difficulty in achieving a high percentage of retail product simultaneously with a high fat content of the longissimus muscle that is required for carcass quality grade. Generally, rp were of smaller magnitude than rg. All rp of marbling score or percentage of ether-extracted fat in the longissimus muscle with all end-use properties relating to palatability including shear force, and sensory evaluation of tenderness, juiciness, and flavor were below .30. PMID:7592074

  6. Consequences of fission in the coral Siderastrea siderea: growth rates of small colonies and clonal input to population structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elahi, R.; Edmunds, P. J.

    2007-06-01

    Colony age and size can be poorly related in scleractinian corals if colonies undergo fission to form smaller independent patches of living tissue (i.e., ramets), but the implications of this life-history characteristic are unclear. This study explored the ecological consequences of the potential discrepancy between size and age for a massive scleractinian, first by testing the effect of colony origin on the growth of small colonies, and second by quantifying the contribution of ramets to population structure. Using Siderastrea siderea in St. John (US Virgin Islands) as an experimental system, the analyses demonstrated that the growth of small colonies derived from sexual reproduction was 2.5-fold greater than that of small ramets which were estimated to be ?100 years older based on the age of the parent colonies from which they split. Although fission can generate discrete colonies, which in the case of the study reef accounted for 42% of all colonies, it may depress colony success and reef accretion through lowered colony growth rates.

  7. Life cycle, population dynamics, growth and production of Abra segmentum (Mollusca, Bivalvia) at low salinities in a Mediterranean lagoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kevrekidis, Theodoros; Kasapis, K.; Kalpia, V.

    2009-12-01

    Aspects of the biology of Abra segmentum were investigated at low salinities in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon (Monolimni Lagoon, Northern Aegean Sea). Monthly samples were collected during the period from February 1998 to January 1999. Recruitment occurred from mid-spring to early autumn (0.3-5.7 psu) and recruits grew during summer and autumn (1.2-5.7 psu), while a major part vanished during next autumn, displaying a maximum life span of about 20 months. A positive correlation was found between the percentage of individuals having a shell length of ?3.5 mm and temperature; age group 0 showed a growth rate of 0.97 mm per month, and the largest individual collected had a 19.76 mm shell length. The population density sharply increased during late spring (0.3-1.2 psu); this increase was followed by a decline during summer and, afterwards, a gradual increase up to late autumn. Secondary production calculated by the size-frequency method gave a mean annual density ( n) of 3,357 individuals m-2, a mean annual biomass ( B) of 21.98 g DW m-2, an annual production ( P) of 73.72 g DW m-2 and a P: B ratio of 3.35. A comparison of the present data with available data of A. segmentum populations from higher salinity habitats revealed that this bivalve in the study area showed a life history pattern similar to that of other populations of the species and a comparatively high growth rate, maximum body size, n, B, P and P: B ratio. Our findings suggest that the studied aspects of A. segmentum biology could not be markedly affected by low salinities.

  8. Ontogenetic habitat shift, population growth, and burrowing behavior of the Indo-Pacific beach star, Archaster typicus (Echinodermata; Asteroidea).

    PubMed

    Bos, Arthur R; Gumanao, Girley S; van Katwijk, Marieke M; Mueller, Benjamin; Saceda, Marjho M; Tejada, Rosie Lynn P

    2011-01-01

    Archaster typicus, a common sea star in Indo-Pacific regions, has been a target for the ornamental trade, even though little is known about its population biology. Spatial and temporal patterns of abundance and size structure of A. typicus were studied in the Davao Gulf, the Philippines (125°42.7'E, 7°0.6'N), from February 2008 to December 2009. Specimens of A. typicus were associated with intertidal mangrove prop roots, seagrass meadows, sandy beaches, and shoals. Among prop roots, specimens were significantly smaller and had highest densities (131 ind. m(-2)) between November and March. High organic matter in sediment and a relatively low predation rate seemed to support juvenile life among mangroves. Size and density analyses provided evidence that individuals gradually move to seagrass, sandy habitats, and shoals as they age. Specimens were significantly larger at a shoal (maximum radius R = 81 mm). New recruits were found between August and November in both 2008 and 2009. Timing of recruitment and population size frequencies confirmed a seasonal reproductive cycle. Juveniles had relatively high growth rates (2-7 mm month(-1)) and may reach an R of 20-25 mm after 1 year. Growth rates of larger specimens (R > 30 mm) were generally <2 mm month(-1). The activity pattern of A. typicus was related to the tidal phase and not to time of day: Specimens moved over the sediment surface during low tides and were burrowed during high tides possibly avoiding predation. This is one of the first studies to document an ontogenetic habitat shift for sea stars and provides new biological information as a basis for management of harvested A. typicus populations. PMID:24391259

  9. Exponential Formulae and Effective Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mielnik, Bogdan; Fernandez, David J. C.

    1996-01-01

    One of standard methods to predict the phenomena of squeezing consists in splitting the unitary evolution operator into the product of simpler operations. The technique, while mathematically general, is not so simple in applications and leaves some pragmatic problems open. We report an extended class of exponential formulae, which yield a quicker insight into the laboratory details for a class of squeezing operations, and moreover, can be alternatively used to programme different type of operations, as: (1) the free evolution inversion; and (2) the soft simulations of the sharp kicks (so that all abstract results involving the kicks of the oscillator potential, become realistic laboratory prescriptions).

  10. The effects of spaceflight and Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 on the T-cell and macrophage populations

    SciTech Connect

    Pecaut, M.J.; Simske, S.J.; Fleshner, M.; Zimmerman, R.

    1997-01-01

    Twelve Sprague-Dawley rats were flown aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavor (STS-77) to study the effects of microgravity-induced stress on the immunoskeletal system. Sixteen rats were used as simultaneous vivarium ground controls during the ten day mission. Osmotic pumps, half of which contained Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 (IGF-1, provided by Chiron), were surgically implanted (subcutaneous) into the rats prior to launch in an attempt to counter any stress effects. On the day of landing, the rats were sacrificed and dissected. Splenocytes and thymocytes were labeled with antibodies against CD4, CD8, CD11b, and TCR for flow cytometry. The percentage of splenic cytotoxic/suppressor (TCR+/CD8+) T-cells increased significantly (by 118{percent}) in spaceflight. There were also decreases in splenic helper (TCR+/CD4+) T-cells and (CD11b+) macrophages (by 33{percent} and 38{percent}, respectively). Together, these results suggest the stress of spaceflight could cause a significant decrease in the ability of rats to mount an immune response. The effects of IGF-1 on cell population distributions were negligible for both flight and vivarium ground controls. However, there were significant differences in spleen and thymus masses suggesting that while IGF-1 did not effect population distributions, the drug may have caused an increase in population size. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  11. The effects of spaceflight and Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 on the T-cell and macrophage populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pecaut, Michael J.; Simske, Steve J.; Fleshner, Monika; Zimmerman, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Twelve Sprague-Dawley rats were flown aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavor (STS-77) to study the effects of microgravity-induced stress on the immunoskeletal system. Sixteen rats were used as simultaneous vivarium ground controls during the ten day mission. Osmotic pumps, half of which contained Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 (IGF-1, provided by Chiron), were surgically implanted (subcutaneous) into the rats prior to launch in an attempt to counter any stress effects. On the day of landing, the rats were sacrificed and dissected. Splenocytes and thymocytes were labeled with antibodies against CD4, CD8, CD11b, and TCR for flow cytometry. The percentage of splenic cytotoxic/suppressor (TCR+/CD8+) T-cells increased significantly (by 118%) in spaceflight. There were also decreases in splenic helper (TCR+/CD4+) T-cells and (CD11b+) macrophages (by 33% and 38%, respectively). Together, these results suggest the stress of spaceflight could cause a significant decrease in the ability of rats to mount an immune response. The effects of IGF-1 on cell population distributions were negligible for both flight and vivarium ground controls. However, there were significant differences in spleen and thymus masses suggesting that while IGF-1 did not effect population distributions, the drug may have caused an increase in population size.

  12. A Millifluidic Study of Cell-to-Cell Heterogeneity in Growth-Rate and Cell-Division Capability in Populations of Isogenic Cells of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii

    PubMed Central

    Damodaran, Shima P.; Eberhard, Stephan; Boitard, Laurent; Rodriguez, Jairo Garnica; Wang, Yuxing; Bremond, Nicolas; Baudry, Jean; Bibette, Jérôme; Wollman, Francis-André

    2015-01-01

    To address possible cell-to-cell heterogeneity in growth dynamics of isogenic cell populations of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, we developed a millifluidic drop-based device that not only allows the analysis of populations grown from single cells over periods of a week, but is also able to sort and collect drops of interest, containing viable and healthy cells, which can be used for further experimentation. In this study, we used isogenic algal cells that were first synchronized in mixotrophic growth conditions. We show that these synchronized cells, when placed in droplets and kept in mixotrophic growth conditions, exhibit mostly homogeneous growth statistics, but with two distinct subpopulations: a major population with a short doubling-time (fast-growers) and a significant subpopulation of slowly dividing cells (slow-growers). These observations suggest that algal cells from an isogenic population may be present in either of two states, a state of restricted division and a state of active division. When isogenic cells were allowed to propagate for about 1000 generations on solid agar plates, they displayed an increased heterogeneity in their growth dynamics. Although we could still identify the original populations of slow- and fast-growers, drops inoculated with a single progenitor cell now displayed a wider diversity of doubling-times. Moreover, populations dividing with the same growth-rate often reached different cell numbers in stationary phase, suggesting that the progenitor cells differed in the number of cell divisions they could undertake. We discuss possible explanations for these cell-to-cell heterogeneities in growth dynamics, such as mutations, differential aging or stochastic variations in metabolites and macromolecules yielding molecular switches, in the light of single-cell heterogeneities that have been reported among isogenic populations of other eu- and prokaryotes. PMID:25760649

  13. A millifluidic study of cell-to-cell heterogeneity in growth-rate and cell-division capability in populations of isogenic cells of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii.

    PubMed

    Damodaran, Shima P; Eberhard, Stephan; Boitard, Laurent; Rodriguez, Jairo Garnica; Wang, Yuxing; Bremond, Nicolas; Baudry, Jean; Bibette, Jérôme; Wollman, Francis-André

    2015-01-01

    To address possible cell-to-cell heterogeneity in growth dynamics of isogenic cell populations of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, we developed a millifluidic drop-based device that not only allows the analysis of populations grown from single cells over periods of a week, but is also able to sort and collect drops of interest, containing viable and healthy cells, which can be used for further experimentation. In this study, we used isogenic algal cells that were first synchronized in mixotrophic growth conditions. We show that these synchronized cells, when placed in droplets and kept in mixotrophic growth conditions, exhibit mostly homogeneous growth statistics, but with two distinct subpopulations: a major population with a short doubling-time (fast-growers) and a significant subpopulation of slowly dividing cells (slow-growers). These observations suggest that algal cells from an isogenic population may be present in either of two states, a state of restricted division and a state of active division. When isogenic cells were allowed to propagate for about 1000 generations on solid agar plates, they displayed an increased heterogeneity in their growth dynamics. Although we could still identify the original populations of slow- and fast-growers, drops inoculated with a single progenitor cell now displayed a wider diversity of doubling-times. Moreover, populations dividing with the same growth-rate often reached different cell numbers in stationary phase, suggesting that the progenitor cells differed in the number of cell divisions they could undertake. We discuss possible explanations for these cell-to-cell heterogeneities in growth dynamics, such as mutations, differential aging or stochastic variations in metabolites and macromolecules yielding molecular switches, in the light of single-cell heterogeneities that have been reported among isogenic populations of other eu- and prokaryotes. PMID:25760649

  14. Fully exponentially correlated wavefunctions for small atoms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Frank E.

    2015-01-01

    Fully exponentially correlated atomic wavefunctions are constructed from exponentials in all the interparticle coordinates, in contrast to correlated wavefunctions of the Hylleraas form, in which only the electron-nuclear distances occur exponentially, with electron-electron distances entering only as integer powers. The full exponential correlation causes many-configuration wavefunctions to converge with expansion length more rapidly than either orbital formulations or correlated wavefunctions of the Hylleraas type. The present contribution surveys the effectiveness of fully exponentially correlated functions for the three-body system (the He isoelectronic series) and reports their application to a four-body system (the Li atom).

  15. The long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover: an empirical analysis based on the panel data of 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-02-01

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons · km(-2) and 3,820 persons · km(-2), and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term. PMID:23435589

  16. The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-01-01

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons·km?2 and 3,820 persons·km?2, and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term. PMID:23435589

  17. Population Growth Potential of the Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius L.: A Life Table Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Polanco, Andrea M.; Brewster, Carlyle C.; Miller, Dini M.

    2011-01-01

    Experimental life tables were constructed and analyzed for three strains of the common bed bug: a pyrethroid-susceptible laboratory strain (HS), a highly resistant field strain (RR), and a field strain with a declining level of resistance (KR). Egg to adult survival in the RR strain was 94% compared with 79% and 69% in the HS and KR strains, respectively. The RR strain also developed significantly faster from egg to adult (?35 days) than the other two strains (?40 days). Analysis of a survivorship and fecundity life table for the RR strain produced the following results. The average life expectancy for a newly laid egg was ?143 days, and that of a newly molted adult was ?127 days. Females produced an average of 0.64 daughter eggs/day with the highest weekly production during the fifth week of adult life. Analysis of daily reproductive parity showed that females produced 1–3 and 4–6 eggs on 79 and 21% of the days, respectively, when egg laying occurred. The net reproductive rate (R0) of the RR strain was ?35, which represents a 35-fold increase in the population per generation (?92 days). The intrinsic rate of increase, r, was 0.054 indicating that the population multiplies 1.1 times/female/day (?) and doubles in size every 13 days. The stable age distribution (cx) was dominated by nymphs (54%), followed by eggs (34%) and adults (12%). Reproductive values (vx) for the strain increased from egg to the adult stage. PMID:26467620

  18. Cellular dynamics extracted from populations of fixed cells reveals a feedback between growth and progression through the cell cycle

    PubMed Central

    Kafri, Ran; Levy, Jason; Ginzberg, Miriam, B.; Oh, Seungeun; Lahav, Galit; Kirschner, Marc, W.

    2013-01-01

    Biologists have long been concerned about what constrains variation in cell size; yet, progress on this question has been slow and stymied by experimental limitations1. We describe a new method, ergodic rate analysis (ERA), that uses single cell measurements of fixed steady-state populations to accurately infer the rates of molecular events, including rates of cell growth. ERA exploits the fact that the number of cells in a particular state is related to the average transit time through that state2. With this method, one can calculate full time trajectories of any feature that can be labeled fixed cells, for example levels of phospho-proteins or total cellular mass. Using ERA we find evidence for a size-discriminatory process at the G1/S transition that acts to decrease cell-to-cell size variation. PMID:23446419

  19. The Effect of Pyriproxyfen as a “Population Growth Regulator” against Aedes albopictus under Semi-Field Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Ohba, Shin-ya; Ohashi, Kazunori; Pujiyati, Endang; Higa, Yukiko; Kawada, Hitoshi; Mito, Nobuaki; Takagi, Masahiro

    2013-01-01

    An insect growth regulator, pyriproxyfen, has been used for the control of a range of pest insects, including mosquitoes. Pyriproxyfen is effective in inhibiting adult emergence and sterilizing adult females. The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is an important vector of dengue and chikungunya, and is expanding its distribution throughout Europe and the Americas. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of pyriproxyfen-treated bed nets on population growth of Ae. albopictus under semi-field conditions, using 6 small microcosms. We created microcosms containing breeding sites to simulate the natural ecosystem of vector mosquito and installing miniature bed net treated with 350 mg/m2 pyriproxyfen in Experiment I and 35 mg/m2 in Experiment II. For each experiment, we also established microcosms installing untreated polyethylene net (untreated control). The installing nets were provided with artificially torn holes, to simulate damage and allow mosquitoes to penetrate. We released 100 pairs of Ae. albopictus into each microcosm, and allowed them to feed on a mouse under the bed nets at approximately 1-week intervals. In comparison with the untreated control microcosms, the number of eggs laid by the released adults in the pyriproxyfen-treated microcosms was significantly lower in both Experiment I and II. Moreover, egg hatchability was significantly suppressed and pupal mortality was increased. Our results indicate that tarsal contact with pyriproxyfen has been shown to suppress egg production and hatchability in adult females and the auto-dissemination of pyriproxyfen into larval breeding sites by adult mosquitoes, through contact with pyriproxyfen-treated polyethylene bed nets, may suppress the mosquito population density. PMID:23843982

  20. In vitro and in vivo growth alter the population dynamic and properties of a Jeryl Lynn mumps vaccine

    PubMed Central

    Connaughton, Sarah M.; Wheeler, Jun X.; Vitková, Eva; Minor, Philip; Schepelmann, Silke

    2015-01-01

    Mumps vaccines are live attenuated viruses. They are known to vary in effectiveness, degree of attenuation and adverse event profile. However, the underlying reasons are poorly understood. We studied two closely related mumps vaccines which originate from the same attenuated Jeryl Lynn-5 strain but have different efficacies. Jeryl Lynn-Canine Kidney (JL-CK), produced on primary canine kidney cells, is less effective than RIT4385, which is produced on chicken embryo fibroblasts. JL-CK and RIT4385 could be distinguished by a number of in vitro and in vivo properties. JL-CK produced heterogeneous, generally smaller plaques than RIT4385, but gave 100-fold higher titres when grown in cells and showed a higher degree of hydrocephalus formation in neonatal rat brains. Sanger sequencing of JL-CK identified 14 regions of heterogeneity throughout the genome. Plaque purification of JL-CK demonstrated the presence of five different Jeryl Lynn-5 variants encompassing the 14 mutations. One JL-CK mutation was associated with a small plaque phenotype, the effects of the others in vitro or in vivo were less clear. Only 4% of the JL-CK population corresponded to the parental Jeryl Lynn-5 strain. Next generation sequencing of JL-CK and virus before and after growth in cell lines or neonatal rat brains showed that propagation in vitro or in vivo altered the population dramatically. Our findings indicate that growth of JL-CK in primary canine kidney cells resulted in the selection of a mixture of mumps virus variants that have different biological properties compared to the parent Jeryl Lynn-5 virus. We also report three previously unknown heterogenic regions within the N gene of the RIT4385 vaccine. PMID:26187256

  1. Influence of pulsed magnetic field on soybean (Glycine max L.) seed germination, seedling growth and soil microbial population.

    PubMed

    Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam; Kumari, Bollipo Dyana Ranjitha

    2013-08-01

    The effects of pulsed magnetic field (PMF) treatment of soybean (Glycine max L. cv CO3) seeds were investigated on rate of seed germination, seedling growth, physico-chemical properties of seed leachates and soil microbial population under laboratory conditions. Seeds were exposed to PMF of 1500 nT at 0.1, 1.0 10.0 and 100.0 Hz for 5 h per day for 20 days, induced by enclosure coil systems. Non-treated seeds were considered as controls. All PMF treatments significantly increased the rate of seed germination, while 10 and 100 Hz PMFs showed the most effective response. The 1.0 and 10 Hz PMFs remarkably improved the fresh weight of shoots and roots, leaf area and plant height from seedlings from magnetically-exposed seeds compared to the control, while 10 Hz PMF increased the total soluble sugar, total protein and phenol contents. The leaf chlorophyll a, b and total chlorophyll were higher in PMF (10 and 100 Hz) pretreated plants, as compared to other treatments. In addition, activities of alpha-amylase, acid phosphatase, alkaline phosphatase, nitrate reductase, peroxidase and polyphenoloxidase were increased, while beta-amylase and protease activities were declined in PMF (10 Hz)-exposed soybean plants. Similarly, the capacity of absorbance of water by seeds and electrical conductivity of seed leachates were significantly enhanced by 10 Hz PMF exposure, whereas PMF (10 Hz) pretreated plants did not affect the microbial population in rhizosphere soil. The results suggested the potential of 10 Hz PMF treatment to enhance the germination and seedling growth of soybean. PMID:24772951

  2. Elicitation of jasmonate-mediated host defense in Brassica juncea (L.) attenuates population growth of mustard aphid Lipaphis erysimi (Kalt.).

    PubMed

    Koramutla, Murali Krishna; Kaur, Amandeep; Negi, Manisha; Venkatachalam, Perumal; Bhattacharya, Ramcharan

    2014-07-01

    The productivity of Brassica oilseeds is severely affected by its major pest: aphids. Unavailability of resistance source within the crossable germplasms has stalled the breeding efforts to derive aphid resistant cultivars. In this study, jasmonate-mediated host defense in Indian mustard Brassica juncea (L.) Czern. was evaluated and compared with regard to its elicitation in response to mustard aphid Lipaphis erysimi (Kalt.) and the defense elicitor methyl jasmonate (MeJ). Identification of jasmonate-induced unigenes in B. juncea revealed that most are orthologous to aphid-responsive genes, identified in taxonomically diverse plant-aphid interactions. The unigenes largely represented genes related to signal transduction, response to biotic and abiotic stimuli and homeostasis of reactive oxygen species (ROS), in addition to genes related to cellular and metabolic processes involved in cell organization, biogenesis, and development. Gene expression studies revealed induction of the key jasmonate biosynthetic genes (LOX, AOC, 12-OPDR), redox genes (CAT3 and GST6), and other downstream defense genes (PAL, ELI3, MYR, and TPI) by several folds, both in response to MeJ and plant-wounding. However, interestingly aphid infestation even after 24 h did not elicit any activation of these genes. In contrast, when the jasmonate-mediated host defense was elicited by exogenous application of MeJ the treated B. juncea plants showed a strong antibiosis effect on the infesting aphids and reduced the growth of aphid populations. The level of redox enzymes CAT, APX, and SOD, involved in ROS homeostasis in defense signaling, and several defense enzymes viz. POD, PPO, and PAL, remained high in treated plants. We conclude that in B. juncea, the jasmonate activated endogenous-defense, which is not effectively activated in response to mustard aphids, has the potential to reduce population growth of mustard aphids. PMID:24771023

  3. First trimester fetal growth restriction and cardiovascular risk factors in school age children: population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Objective To examine whether first trimester fetal growth restriction correlates with cardiovascular outcomes in childhood. Design Population based prospective cohort study. Setting City of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Participants 1184 children with first trimester fetal crown to rump length measurements, whose mothers had a reliable first day of their last menstrual period and a regular menstrual cycle. Main outcomes measures Body mass index, total and abdominal fat distribution, blood pressure, and blood concentrations of cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin, and C peptide at the median age of 6.0 (90% range 5.7-6.8) years. Clustering of cardiovascular risk factors was defined as having three or more of: high android fat mass; high systolic or diastolic blood pressure; low high density lipoprotein cholesterol or high triglycerides concentrations; and high insulin concentrations. Results One standard deviation score greater first trimester fetal crown to rump length was associated with a lower total fat mass (?0.30%, 95% confidence interval ?0.57% to ?0.03%), android fat mass (?0.07%, ?0.12% to ?0.02%), android/gynoid fat mass ratio (?0.53, ?0.89 to ?0.17), diastolic blood pressure (?0.43, ?0.84 to ?0.01, mm Hg), total cholesterol (?0.05, ?0.10 to 0, mmol/L), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (?0.04, ?0.09 to 0, mmol/L), and risk of clustering of cardiovascular risk factors (relative risk 0.81, 0.66 to 1.00) in childhood. Additional adjustment for gestational age and weight at birth changed these effect estimates only slightly. Childhood body mass index fully explained the associations of first trimester fetal crown to rump length with childhood total fat mass. First trimester fetal growth was not associated with other cardiovascular outcomes. Longitudinal growth analyses showed that compared with school age children without clustering of cardiovascular risk factors, those with clustering had a smaller first trimester fetal crown to rump length and lower second and third trimester estimated fetal weight but higher weight growth from the age of 6 months onwards. Conclusions Impaired first trimester fetal growth is associated with an adverse cardiovascular risk profile in school age children. Early fetal life might be a critical period for cardiovascular health in later life. PMID:24458585

  4. Growth and population dynamics during early stages of the mangrove Kandelia candel in Halong Bay, North Viet Nam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thi Ha, Hoang; Duarte, Carlos M.; Tri, Nguyen Hoang; Terrados, Jorge; Borum, Jens

    2003-11-01

    Quantifying the dynamics of the early stages in the life cycle of mangroves is essential to predict the distribution, species composition and structure of mangrove forests, and their maintenance and recovery from perturbations. The growth and population dynamics of two stands of the mangrove Kandelia candel in Halong Bay (Viet Nam) were examined for 1 year. Growth was highly seasonal, with high growth rates and fast internode formation in the summer, dropping to extremely low growth during January-February, the coldest and driest months in the year. In addition, growth and internode formation rates showed important inter-annual variability during the last decade. The complete reproductive period required 7-8 months. Flower initiation was maximal in June and peak propagule maturity occurred in December-January. Only one mature propagule developed for every 67 and 127 inflorescence buds formed at Site 1 and Site 2, respectively. Kandelia candel propagules begun to sink 10 days after being released, and after 18 days all propagules had negative buoyancy. The propagules developed roots within 19-68 days, depending on whether they were held on the water or sediment, and were capable of long range dispersal, for 15-20% of them dispersed more than 100 m within 1 day. The median age of K. candel plants ranged between 8.7 and 5.6 years, with a density of 1900 and 470 plants ha -1, in Sites 1 and 2. Plant mortality was high, with 64 and 74% of the plants surviving after a year at Sites 1 and 2. Life expectancy (i.e. median age-at-death) of only 2.2 and 2.7 years at Sites 1 and 2, respectively, indicates that mortality of young K. candel plants was specially high. Recruitment occurred in early spring, and did not suffice to balance the mortality within the annual period examined. These results suggest that the K. candel stands in Halong Bay might be maintained by a few years of high recruitment which would compensate for generally high mortality rates.

  5. Bedrock aquifers and population growth in the Denver Basin, Colorado, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, J.E.; Raynolds, R.G.; Dechesne, M.

    2007-01-01

    The Denver Basin bedrock aquifer system consists of Tertiary and Cretaceous age sedimentary rocks known as the Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers. The number of bedrock wells has increased from 12,000 in 1985 to over 33,700 in 2001 and the withdrawal of groundwater has caused water level declines in excess of 75 meters. Water level declines now range from 3 to 12 meters per year in the critical Arapahoe Aquifer. The groundwater supplies were once thought to be sufficient for 100 years but there is concern that they may be depleted in 10 to 15 years in areas on the west side of the basin. Groundwater is being mined from the aquifer system because the withdrawal through wells exceeds the rate of recharge. Increased groundwater withdrawal will cause further water level declines, increased costs to pump groundwater, and reduced yield from existing wells. In the Denver Basin, hydrologists have some capability to monitor declines in water levels for the Arapaho Aquifer, but generally have a limited ability to monitor water use. More complete and accurate water use data are needed to predict groundwater longevity for the Arapahoe Aquifer. The life of the Arapahoe Aquifer can be extended with artificial recharge using imported surface water, water reuse, restrictions on lawn watering, well permit restrictions and other conservation measures. Availability of groundwater may limit growth in the Denver Basin over the next 20 years unless residents are willing to pay for additional new sources of supply.

  6. Age, differential growth and mortality rates in unexploited populations of Florida gar, an apex predator in the Florida Everglades

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murie, D.J.; Parkyn, D.C.; Nico, L.G.; Herod, J.J.; Loftus, W.F.

    2009-01-01

    Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus DeKay, were sampled in two canal systems in south Florida during 2000-2001 to estimate age, growth and mortality as part of the Everglades ecosystem-restoration effort. Tamiami (C-4) and L-31W canal systems had direct connections to natural wetlands of the Everglades and harboured large Florida gar populations. Of 476 fish aged, maximum ages were 19 and 10years for females and males, respectively. Maximum sizes were also larger for females compared with males (817 vs 602 mm total length). Overall, female Florida gar from both Tamiami and L-31W were larger at age than males from L-31W that, in turn, were larger at any given age than males from Tamiami. Females also had lower rates of annual mortality (Z = 0.21) than males from L-31W (Z = 0.31) or males from Tamiami (Z = 0.54). As a large and long-lived apex predator in the Everglades, Florida gar may structure lower trophic levels. Regional- and sex-specific population parameters for Florida gar will contribute to the simulation models designed to evaluate Everglades restoration alternatives. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Ideotype Population Exploration: Growth, Photosynthesis, and Yield Components at Different Planting Densities in Winter Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus L.)

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Ni; Yuan, Jinzhan; Li, Ming; Li, Jun; Zhang, Liyan; Liu, Lixin; Naeem, Muhammad Shahbaz; Zhang, Chunlei

    2014-01-01

    Rapeseed is one of the most important edible oil crops in the world and the seed yield has lagged behind the increasing demand driven by population growth. Winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is widely cultivated with relatively low yield in China, so it is necessary to find the strategies to improve the expression of yield potential. Planting density has great effects on seed yield of crops. Hence, field experiments were conducted in Wuhan in the Yangtze River basin with one conventional variety (Zhongshuang 11, ZS11) and one hybrid variety (Huayouza 9, HYZ9) at five planting densities (27.0×104, 37.5×104, 48.0×104, 58.5×104, 69.0×104 plants ha–1) during 2010–2012 to investigate the yield components. The physiological traits for high-yield and normal-yield populations were measured during 2011–2013. Our results indicated that planting densities of 58.5×104 plants ha–1 in ZS11 and 48.0×104 plants ha–1 in HYZ9 have significantly higher yield compared with the density of 27.0×104 plants ha–1for both varieties. The ideal silique numbers for ZS11 and HYZ9 were ?0.9×104 (n m–2) and ?1×104 (n m-2), respectively, and ideal primary branches for ZS11 and HYZ9 were ?250 (n m–2) and ?300 (n m–2), respectively. The highest leaf area index (LAI) and silique wall area index (SAI) was ?5.0 and 7.0, respectively. Moreover, higher leaf net photosynthetic rate (Pn) and water use efficiency (WUE) were observed in the high-yield populations. A significantly higher level of silique wall photosynthesis and rapid dry matter accumulation were supposed to result in the maximum seed yield. Our results suggest that increasing the planting density within certain range is a feasible approach for higher seed yield in winter rapeseed in China. PMID:25517990

  8. Sources of variability in spotted owl population growth rate: testing predictions using long-term mark-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Seamans, Mark E; Gutiérrez, R J

    2007-05-01

    For long-lived iteroparous vertebrates that annually produce few young, life history theory predicts that reproductive output (R) and juvenile survival should influence temporal variation in population growth rate (lambda) more than adult survival does. We examined this general prediction using 15 years of mark-recapture data from a population of California spotted owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We found that survival of individuals > or =1 year old (phi) exhibited much less temporal variability (CV = 0.04), where CV is coefficient of variation, than R (CV = 0.83) and that R was strongly influenced by environmental stochasticity. Although lambda was most sensitive (ê; log-transformed sensitivity) to phi (ê = 0.77), and much less sensitive to either R (ê = 0.12) or juvenile survival (survival rate of owls from fledging to 1 year old; ê = 0.12), we estimated that R contributed as much as phi to the observed annual variability in lambda. The contribution of juvenile survival to variability in lambda was proportional to its ê. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that natural selection may have favored the evolution of longevity in spotted owls as a strategy to increase the probability of experiencing favorable years for reproduction. Our finding that annual weather patterns that most affected R (temperature and precipitation during incubation) and phi (conditions during winter related to the Southern Oscillation Index) were equally good at explaining temporal variability in lambda supports the conclusion that R and phi were equally responsible for variability in lambda. Although currently accepted conservation measures for spotted owl populations attempt to enhance survival, our results indicated that conservation measures that target R may be as successful, as long as actions do not reduce phi. PMID:17160689

  9. Turnover of microbial lipids in the deep biosphere and growth of benthic archaeal populations.

    PubMed

    Xie, Sitan; Lipp, Julius S; Wegener, Gunter; Ferdelman, Timothy G; Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe

    2013-04-01

    Deep subseafloor sediments host a microbial biosphere with unknown impact on global biogeochemical cycles. This study tests previous evidence based on microbial intact polar lipids (IPLs) as proxies of live biomass, suggesting that Archaea dominate the marine sedimentary biosphere. We devised a sensitive radiotracer assay to measure the decay rate of ([(14)C]glucosyl)-diphytanylglyceroldiether (GlcDGD) as an analog of archaeal IPLs in continental margin sediments. The degradation kinetics were incorporated in model simulations that constrained the fossil fraction of subseafloor IPLs and rates of archaeal turnover. Simulating the top 1 km in a generic continental margin sediment column, we estimated degradation rate constants of GlcDGD being one to two orders of magnitude lower than those of bacterial IPLs, with half-lives of GlcDGD increasing with depth to 310 ky. Given estimated microbial community turnover times of 1.6-73 ky in sediments deeper than 1 m, 50-96% of archaeal IPLs represent fossil signals. Consequently, previous lipid-based estimates of global subseafloor biomass probably are too high, and the widely observed dominance of archaeal IPLs does not rule out a deep biosphere dominated by Bacteria. Reverse modeling of existing concentration profiles suggest that archaeal IPL synthesis rates decline from around 1,000 pg?mL(-1) sediment?y(-1) at the surface to 0.2 pg?mL(-1)?y(-1) at 1 km depth, equivalent to production of 7 × 10(5) to 140 archaeal cells?mL(-1) sediment?y(-1), respectively. These constraints on microbial growth are an important step toward understanding the relationship between the deep biosphere and the carbon cycle. PMID:23530229

  10. Hindu-Muslim differentials in fertility and population growth in India: role of proximate variables.

    PubMed

    Balasubramanian, K

    1984-09-01

    In India, Hindu and Muslim differentials in fertility were examined using census data and the findings of 11 surveys. An explanation of the fertility differences was offered. The proportion of Muslims in the population increased and the proportion of Hindus decreased, both before and after partition of the country. After partition, and between 1951-71, the proportion of Muslims increased from 9.9%-11.2% while the proportion of Hindus decreased from 84.9%-82.7%. An examination of mortality and migration data suggests that these proportional changes cannot be attributed to differences in migration or mortality; therefore, they must be due to differences in fertility. Census and survey data provide considerable evidence that fertility is higher among Muslims than among Hindus. According to the 1971 census data, the total marital fertility rate for Muslim women was 11% higher in urban areas and 20% higher in rural areas than the rate for Hindus. Even when education was controlled, the Muslim rate remained higher. The findings of 11 demographic surveys consistently revealed higher fertility rates for Muslims compared to Hindus. Several studies demonstrated that these differences narrowed but remained significant when education and socioeconomic factors were controlled. Investigators generally offer 1 of 3 hypotheses to explain the differences. The 1st hypothesis attributes the fertility differences to differences in the background or socioeconomic characteristics of the 2 populations. This explanation is not supported by studies which have introduced socioeconomic controls. The 2nd hypothesis states that minority status itself is a sufficient cause of high fertility. There is considerable evidence with which to refute this hypothesis. For example, in predominantly Muslim countries, Hindu minorities tend to have lower fertility than Muslims. The 3rd hypothesis attributed the fertility differences to religious beliefs concerning reproduction. Both Islam and Hinduism are pronatalist religions; however, the 2 religions differ in regard to their beliefs concerning marriage, reproductive behavior, and fertility control, and these differences may have a different impact on the intermediate variables which influence fertility. These intermediate variables include age at marriage, marriage stability, and contraceptive use. For example, Islamic beliefs, in contrast to Hindu beliefs, support polygamy, allow for easy divorce in case of infertility, and allow widows to remarry. These beliefs tend to increase exposure to the risk of pregnancy for Muslim women. Hindu women are more likely than Muslim women to return to their family of orientation for a period of time following the birth of their 1st and 2nd children, and this practice reduces exposure to the risk of pregnancy for Hindu women. Muslim women are also less receptive to family planning than Hindu women. A national survey indicated that 17% of Hindu women compared to 13% of Muslim women ever used contraception. Sterilization rates are also higher among Hindus than among Muslims. As the modernization process unfolds in India, the impact of religious beliefs on the intermediate variables will decrease, and religious differentials in fertility will decline. PMID:12340174

  11. Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Godber, Olivia F; Wall, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform. PMID:24692268

  12. Effects of Temperature on the Development and Population Growth of the Sycamore Lace Bug, Corythucha ciliata

    PubMed Central

    Ju, Rui-Ting; Wang, Feng; Li, Bo

    2011-01-01

    The sycamore lace bug, Corythucha ciliata (Say) (Hemiptera: Tingidae), is an important invasive exotic pest of Platanus (Proteales: Platanaceae) trees in China. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of temperature on C. ciliata in the laboratory so that forecasting models based on heat accumulation units could be developed for the pest. Development and fecundity of C. ciliata reared on leaves of London plane tree (Platanus × acerifolia) were investigated at seven constant temperatures (16, 19, 22, 26, 30, 33, and 36° C) and at a relative humidity of 80% with a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D). The developmental time was found to significantly decrease with increasing temperature. The developmental time from egg hatching to adult emergence was respectively 47.6, 35.0, 24.1, 20.0, and 17.1 days at the temperatures of 19, 22, 26, 30, and 33° C. C. ciliata could not complete full development at 16° and 36° C. The developmental threshold temperature (C) estimated for egg-to-adult was 11.17° C, with a thermal constant of (K) 370.57 degree-days. Longevity of females was found to be the shortest, 17.7 days at 33° C and the longest, 58.9 days at 16° C, and that of males was the shortest, 19.7 days at 33° C and the longest, 59.7 days at 16° C. Fecundity was the highest at 30° C, being 286.8 eggs per female over an oviposition period of 8.9 days. Female lifetime fecundity was reduced at other temperatures, being the lowest (87.7 eggs per female) at 19° C. The population trend index (I) of C. ciliata was the highest (130.1) at 30° C and the lowest (24.9) at 19° C. Therefore, the optimal developmental temperature for C. ciliata was determined to be 30° C. PMID:21526932

  13. Experimental exposure to cadmium affects metallothionein-like protein levels but not survival and growth in wolf spiders from polluted and reference populations.

    PubMed

    Eraly, Debbie; Hendrickx, Frederik; Bervoets, Lieven; Lens, Luc

    2010-06-01

    Both local adaptation and acclimation in tolerance mechanisms may allow populations to persist under metal pollution. However, both mechanisms are presumed to incur (energetic) costs and to trade-off with other life-history traits. To test this hypothesis, we exposed Pardosa saltans (Lycosidae) spiderlings originating from metal-polluted and unpolluted sites to a controlled cadmium (Cd) treatment, and compared contents of metal-binding metallothionein-like proteins (MTLPs), internal metal concentrations, and individual survival and growth rates with a reference treatment. While increased MTLP concentrations in offspring originating from both polluted and unpolluted populations upon exposure indicates a plastic tolerance mechanism, survival and growth rates remain largely unaffected, independent of the population of origin. However, MTLP and Cd concentrations were not significantly correlated. We suggest that MTLP production may be an important mechanism enabling P. saltans populations to persist in ecosystems polluted with heavy metals above a certain level. PMID:20363062

  14. Theory, computation, and application of exponential splines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccartin, B. J.

    1981-01-01

    A generalization of the semiclassical cubic spline known in the literature as the exponential spline is discussed. In actuality, the exponential spline represents a continuum of interpolants ranging from the cubic spline to the linear spline. A particular member of this family is uniquely specified by the choice of certain tension parameters. The theoretical underpinnings of the exponential spline are outlined. This development roughly parallels the existing theory for cubic splines. The primary extension lies in the ability of the exponential spline to preserve convexity and monotonicity present in the data. Next, the numerical computation of the exponential spline is discussed. A variety of numerical devices are employed to produce a stable and robust algorithm. An algorithm for the selection of tension parameters that will produce a shape preserving approximant is developed. A sequence of selected curve-fitting examples are presented which clearly demonstrate the advantages of exponential splines over cubic splines.

  15. Exponential ground impedance models and their interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raspet, Richard; Sprague, Mark

    1990-01-01

    The authors compare the results of Donato's exponentially varying ground model, Attenborough's exponentially varying ground model and the rigid backed thin layer model. They show that these models produce similar results for slow variations. For rapid variations the results are quite different, but the basic theory used is only correct for the thin layer model. These results suggest that the exponentially varying models are not necessary for fitting ground impedance data.

  16. Biphasic Growth of Acetobacter suboxydans on a Glycerol-Limiting Medium1

    PubMed Central

    Batzing, B. L.; Claus, G. W.

    1971-01-01

    Dihydroxyacetone was quantitatively produced from glycerol during the primary exponential growth phase and depleted during the secondary exponential phase. Although no growth was detected on the basal medium, growth occurred upon addition of dihydroxyacetone. Images PMID:5122812

  17. The role of density dependence in growth patterns of ceded territory walleye populations of northern Wisconsin: Effects of changing management regimes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sass, G.G.; Hewett, S.W.; Beard, T.D., Jr.; Fayram, A.H.; Kitchell, J.F.

    2004-01-01

    We assessed density-related changes in growth of walleye Sander vitreus in the ceded territory of northern Wisconsin from 1977 to 1999. We used asymptotic length (Lz), growth rate near t0 (??), and body condition as measures of walleye growth to determine the relationship between growth and density. Among lakes, there was weak evidence of density-dependent growth: adult density explained only 0-6% of the variability in the growth metrics. Within lakes, growth was density dependent. Lz, ??, and body condition of walleyes changing with density for 69, 28, and 62% of the populations examined, respectively. Our results suggest that walleye growth was density dependent within individual lakes. However, growth was not coherently density dependent among lakes, which was possibly due to inherent differences in the productivity, surface area, forage base, landscape position, species composition, and management regime of lakes in the ceded territory. Densities of adult walleyes averaged 8.3 fish/ha and did not change significantly during 1990-1999. Mean Lz and body condition of walleyes were signilicantly higher before 1990 than after 1990, which may indicate an increase in density due to changes in management regimes. The observed growth changes do not appear to be a consequence of the statewide 15-in minimum size limit adopted in 1990 but rather a response to the treaty rights management regime. We conclude that walleye growth has the potential to predict regional-scale adult walleye densities if lake-specific variables are included in a model to account for regional-scale differences among walleye populations and lakes.

  18. An Exponential Decay Model for Mediation

    PubMed Central

    Fritz, Matthew S.

    2013-01-01

    Mediation analysis is often used to investigate mechanisms of change in prevention research. Results finding mediation are strengthened when longitudinal data are used because of the need for temporal precedence. Current longitudinal mediation models have focused mainly on linear change, but many variables in prevention change nonlinearly across time. The most common solution to nonlinearity is to add a quadratic term to the linear model, but this can lead to the use of the quadratic function to explain all nonlinearity, regardless of theory and the characteristics of the variables in the model. The current study describes the problems that arise when quadratic functions are used to describe all nonlinearity and how the use of nonlinear functions, such as exponential decay, addresses many of these problems. In addition, nonlinear models provide several advantages over polynomial models including usefulness of parameters, parsimony, and generalizability. The effects of using nonlinear functions for mediation analysis are then discussed and a nonlinear growth curve model for mediation is presented. An empirical example using data from a randomized intervention study is then provided to illustrate the estimation and interpretation of the model. Implications, limitations, and future directions are also discussed. PMID:23625557

  19. Epidemics, Exponential Functions, and Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bush, Sarah B.; Gibbons, Katie; Karp, Karen S.; Dillon, Fred

    2015-01-01

    The phenomenon of outbreaks of dangerous diseases is both intriguing to students and of mathematical significance, which is exactly why the authors engaged eighth graders in an introductory activity on the growth that occurs as an epidemic spreads. Various contexts can set the stage for such an exploration. Reading adolescent literature like…

  20. Investigating impact of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Polymorphisms in Epithelial Ovarian Cancers: A Study in the Indian Population

    PubMed Central

    Bhagat, Rahul; Chennagiri Srinivasamurthy, Premalata; Venketeshiah Reddihalli, Pallavi; Gawari, Ramesh

    2015-01-01

    Epithelial ovarian cancer is one of the increasingly incident malignancies that is notorious because of its evasiveness for early diagnosis and high mortality rates. Epithelial ovarian cancers are highly dependent on pathologic vasculature and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor is known to be one of the most efficient angiogenic factors. Polymorphisms of the VEGF gene, in this study, were assessed for association with the malignancy and other clinico-pathological factors. 300 case samples and 320 age and mensus status matched controls were inculcated into the study. rs699947, rs833061, rs1570360, rs2010963, rs1413711 and rs3025039 were the six single nucleotide polymorphisms that were scrutinized. Genotyping was carried out by polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism. rs 3025039 showed immense promise as a marker for disease aggression and recurrence and a factor for poor prognosis. rs699947 showed least association with the disease and clinico-pathologic factors studied. rs833061, rs 1570360 showed significant association with some clinico-pathological factors such as bilateral affliction of ovaries and post operative CA-125 levels. rs2010963 associated with presence of ascites in higher volumes. The SNPs under consideration showed no formidable linkage in our study samples. A haplotype analysis (excluding rs699947 and rs1413711) revealed 5 frontrunners being present in >85% of the population with TGGC and CGCC associating significantly as protective and risk factors respectively. These haplotypes showed a dose dependent additive effect of their seeming functionality. This study is unique and a first of its kind carried out in the Indian population of South-east Asia. PMID:26158818