Science.gov

Sample records for extremal conditional quantile

  1. Analysis of changes in extreme temperature and precipitation using quantile regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyoungmi; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, ChunHo

    2013-04-01

    One of the important research areas in climatology is to identify whether the long-period tendencies of change in meteorological variables appear. In the past, the analysis has been limited by the estimation of long-period trends for annual or seasonal average values on meteorological variables. However, recently, the interest in the trends regarding the whole range of values for meteorological variables, including the extreme ones, has arisen. The quantile regression is the regression analysis method for estimating the regression slopes for the values of any quantile from 0 to 1 of dependent variable distributions. This method provides a more complete picture for the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the independent variable when both lower and upper or all quantiles are of interest. This study examines the changes in regional extreme temperature and precipitation in South Korea using quantile regression, which is applied to analyze trends, not only in the mean but in all parts of the data distribution. The results show considerable diversity across space and quantile level in South Korea. For daily temperatures in winter, the slopes in lower quantiles generally have a more distinct increase trend compared to the upper quantiles. The time series for daily minimum temperature during the winter season only shows a significant increasing trend in the lower quantile. In case of summer, most sites show an increase trend in both lower and upper quantiles for daily minimum temperature, while there are a number of sites with a decrease trend for daily maximum temperature. It was also found that the increase trend of extreme low temperature in large urban areas (0.80°C/decade) is much larger than in rural areas (0.54°C/decade) due to the effects of urbanization. Extreme climate events can have greater negative impacts on society, economy and natural environments than changes in climate means. The fast growth of population and industrialization in

  2. Can quantile mapping improve precipitation extremes from regional climate models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tani, Satyanarayana; Gobiet, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    The ability of quantile mapping to accurately bias correct regard to precipitation extremes is investigated in this study. We developed new methods by extending standard quantile mapping (QMα) to improve the quality of bias corrected extreme precipitation events as simulated by regional climate model (RCM) output. The new QM version (QMβ) was developed by combining parametric and nonparametric bias correction methods. The new nonparametric method is tested with and without a controlling shape parameter (Qmβ1 and Qmβ0, respectively). Bias corrections are applied on hindcast simulations for a small ensemble of RCMs at six different locations over Europe. We examined the quality of the extremes through split sample and cross validation approaches of these three bias correction methods. This split-sample approach mimics the application to future climate scenarios. A cross validation framework with particular focus on new extremes was developed. Error characteristics, q-q plots and Mean Absolute Error (MAEx) skill scores are used for evaluation. We demonstrate the unstable behaviour of correction function at higher quantiles with QMα, whereas the correction functions with for QMβ0 and QMβ1 are smoother, with QMβ1 providing the most reasonable correction values. The result from q-q plots demonstrates that, all bias correction methods are capable of producing new extremes but QMβ1 reproduces new extremes with low biases in all seasons compared to QMα, QMβ0. Our results clearly demonstrate the inherent limitations of empirical bias correction methods employed for extremes, particularly new extremes, and our findings reveals that the new bias correction method (Qmß1) produces more reliable climate scenarios for new extremes. These findings present a methodology that can better capture future extreme precipitation events, which is necessary to improve regional climate change impact studies.

  3. Simulation and Estimation of Extreme Quantiles and Extreme Probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Guyader, Arnaud; Hengartner, Nicolas; Matzner-Lober, Eric

    2011-10-15

    Let X be a random vector with distribution {mu} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and {Phi} be a mapping from Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} to Double-Struck-Capital-R . That mapping acts as a black box, e.g., the result from some computer experiments for which no analytical expression is available. This paper presents an efficient algorithm to estimate a tail probability given a quantile or a quantile given a tail probability. The algorithm improves upon existing multilevel splitting methods and can be analyzed using Poisson process tools that lead to exact description of the distribution of the estimated probabilities and quantiles. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in a problem related to digital watermarking.

  4. Estimating conditional quantiles with the help of the pinball loss

    SciTech Connect

    Steinwart, Ingo

    2008-01-01

    Using the so-called pinball loss for estimating conditional quantiles is a well-known tool in both statistics and machine learning. So far, however, only little work has been done to quantify the efficiency of this tool for non-parametric (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. The goal of this work is to fill this gap by establishing inequalities that describe how close approximate pinball risk minimizers are to the corresponding conditional quantile. These inequalities, which hold under mild assumptions on the data-generating distribution, are then used to establish so-called variance bounds which recently turned out to play an important role in the statistical analysis of (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. To illustrate the use of the established inequalities, we then use them to establish an oracle inequality for support vector machines that use the pinball loss. Here, it turns out that we obtain learning rates which are optimal in a min-max sense under some standard assumptions on the regularity of the conditional quantile function.

  5. Areal rainfall construction and estimation of extreme quantiles.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penot, David; Paquet, Emmanuel; Lang, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Areal rainfall estimation and extrapolation to extremes is a key issue for catchment flood study. It is a tricky problem which deals with spatial interpolation (to build an estimate at the catchment's scale based on few rain gauges only), and probabilistic extrapolation (for extreme values estimation). In this study, several methods to build an areal rainfall estimation are compared. The first method is the commonly used Thiessen polygons. A second way to build an areal rainfall relies on the SPAZM method [Gottardi, 2012], in which daily rain fields are reconstructed at a 1km2 resolution, with an interpolation scheme integrating the altitude of the pixel and the weather type of the day. These two methods are compared to the stochastic rain field simulator SAMPO [Leblois et Creutin, 2013], which is an adaptation of the turning band method allowing to generate over 50 years of realistic rain fields. Several questions are tackled in this study: In a Thiessen estimation, how many rain gauges should be selected ? Which weighting scheme should be used ? SPAZM is an interpolator designed to produce unbiased mean annual precipitation (MAP) at a catchment's scale. So if a Thiessen areal rainfall is scaled to fit the MAP given by SPAZM, how does it affect its extreme rainfall estimation ? If a virtual rain gauges network is extracted from the rain fields generated by SAMPO, how do behave the Thiessen and SPAZM areal rainfall estimations based on these point values ? At the end, some abatement functions are obtained, showing the influence of the catchment's area and the options chosen to build the areal rainfall estimations. References: F. Gottardi, C. Obled, J. Gailhard, and E. Paquet, Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns : Application over french mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432-433:154 - 167, 2012. ISSN 0022-1694. E. Leblois and J-D. Creutin, Space-time simulation of intermittent rainfall with prescribed

  6. Investigating the observed sensitivities of air-quality extremes to meteorological drivers via quantile regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, W. C.; Heald, C. L.; Cooley, D.; Russell, B.

    2015-09-01

    Air pollution variability is strongly dependent on meteorology. However, quantifying the impacts of changes in regional climatology on pollution extremes can be difficult due to the many non-linear and competing meteorological influences on the production, transport, and removal of pollutant species. Furthermore, observed pollutant levels at many sites show sensitivities at the extremes that differ from those of the overall mean, indicating relationships that would be poorly characterized by simple linear regressions. To address this challenge, we apply quantile regression to observed daily ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels and reanalysis meteorological fields in the USA over the past decade to specifically identify the meteorological sensitivities of higher pollutant levels. From an initial set of over 1700 possible meteorological indicators (including 28 meteorological variables with 63 different temporal options), we generate reduced sets of O3 and PM2.5 indicators for both summer and winter months, analyzing pollutant sensitivities to each for response quantiles ranging from 2 to 98 %. Primary covariates connected to high-quantile O3 levels include temperature and relative humidity in the summer, while winter O3 levels are most commonly associated with incoming radiation flux. Covariates associated with summer PM2.5 include temperature, wind speed, and tropospheric stability at many locations, while stability, humidity, and planetary boundary layer height are the key covariates most frequently associated with winter PM2.5. We find key differences in covariate sensitivities across regions and quantiles. For example, we find nationally averaged sensitivities of 95th percentile summer O3 to changes in maximum daily temperature of approximately 0.9 ppb °C-1, while the sensitivity of 50th percentile summer O3 (the annual median) is only 0.6 ppb °C-1. This gap points to differing sensitivities within various percentiles of the pollutant

  7. Sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to rainfall-runoff modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Garçon, R.

    2012-04-01

    EDF (Électricité de France) design floods of dam spillways are now computed using a probabilistic method named SCHADEX (Climatic-hydrological simulation of extreme foods (Paquet et al., 2006, Garavaglia et al., 2009, 2010). This method aims at estimating extreme flood quantiles by the combination of a weather pattern based rainfall probabilistic model and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Extreme floods quantiles are estimated through a runoff generation process that combines a stochastic generation of rainfall events and a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation. The aim of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to the rainfall-runoff model (structure, parameters) used in the simulation framework. To explore this topic we have used two rainfall-runoff models (i.e. MORDOR model (Garçon et al., 1996) and GR4J model (Andreassian et al., 2006)) with four different objective functions (based on Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiencies) and a classical split-sample scheme. This testing strategy has been applied to calibrate models on a set of 30 French watersheds at different time-steps (mainly daily and 4 to 12 hours). When calibrated, models were used within the SCHADEX method and flood quantiles were evaluated at different return levels in interpolation and extrapolation (10, 100, 1000 years return-period). The main result of this comparative study is that extreme flood quantile estimations are more sensitive to (i) the objective function used and (ii) the time series length and period used for model calibration then (iii) the rainfall-runoff structure. Within this comparative study, the mean variability on a 1000 years return-period is up to 20%. Another interesting result is that, for a same objective function and time series period, the influence of the rainfall-runoff model is relatively moderated in extrapolation domain because the two rainfall-runoff models converged towards their asymptotic behaviours, but

  8. On the prediction of extreme flood quantiles at ungauged locations with spatial copula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durocher, Martin; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-02-01

    The present study investigates the use of the spatial copula approach for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins. Spatial copulas are the formalization of traditional geostatistics by copulas. In regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA), the regression of flood quantiles is often carried out at the logarithmic scale. Consequently, traditional interpolation methods introduce a bias and provide suboptimal predictions. In this study, the copula framework is examined for offering proper corrections in this framework. Moreover, copula techniques separate the regional distribution of flood quantiles from spatial dependence. This provides a full probabilistic model that represents a more flexible framework where proper combinations of regional distribution and dependence can be adapted to various situations that are encountered in RFFA. The adequacy of the investigated methodology is evaluated on a real world case study involving hydrometric stations from southern Quebec, Canada. Results show that the spatial copula framework is able to deal with the problem of bias, is robust to the presence of problematic stations and may improve the quality of quantile predictions while reducing the level of complexity of the models used in RFFA.

  9. Estimating geographic variation on allometric growth and body condition of Blue Suckers with quantile regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cade, B.S.; Terrell, J.W.; Neely, B.C.

    2011-01-01

    Increasing our understanding of how environmental factors affect fish body condition and improving its utility as a metric of aquatic system health require reliable estimates of spatial variation in condition (weight at length). We used three statistical approaches that varied in how they accounted for heterogeneity in allometric growth to estimate differences in body condition of blue suckers Cycleptus elongatus across 19 large-river locations in the central USA. Quantile regression of an expanded allometric growth model provided the most comprehensive estimates, including variation in exponents within and among locations (range = 2.88–4.24). Blue suckers from more-southerly locations had the largest exponents. Mixed-effects mean regression of a similar expanded allometric growth model allowed exponents to vary among locations (range = 3.03–3.60). Mean relative weights compared across selected intervals of total length (TL = 510–594 and 594–692 mm) in a multiplicative model involved the implicit assumption that allometric exponents within and among locations were similar to the exponent (3.46) for the standard weight equation. Proportionate differences in the quantiles of weight at length for adult blue suckers (TL = 510, 594, 644, and 692 mm) compared with their average across locations ranged from 1.08 to 1.30 for southern locations (Texas, Mississippi) and from 0.84 to 1.00 for northern locations (Montana, North Dakota); proportionate differences for mean weight ranged from 1.13 to 1.17 and from 0.87 to 0.95, respectively, and those for mean relative weight ranged from 1.10 to 1.18 and from 0.86 to 0.98, respectively. Weights for fish at longer lengths varied by 600–700 g within a location and by as much as 2,000 g among southern and northern locations. Estimates for the Wabash River, Indiana (0.96–1.07 times the average; greatest increases for lower weights at shorter TLs), and for the Missouri River from Blair, Nebraska, to Sioux City, Iowa (0.90

  10. Mineralogy under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Shu, Jinfu

    2012-02-07

    We have performed measurements of minerals based on the synchrotron source for single crystal and powder X-ray diffraction, inelastic scattering, spectroscopy and radiography by using diamond anvil cells. We investigated the properties of iron (Fe), iron-magnesium oxides (Fe, Mg)O, silica(SiO{sub 2}), iron-magnesium silicates (Fe, Mg)SiO{sub 3} under simulated high pressure-high temperature extreme conditions of the Earth's crust, upper mantle, low mantle, core-mantle boundary, outer core, and inner core. The results provide a new window on the investigation of the mineral properties at Earth's conditions.

  11. A Methodology for Robust Multiproxy Paleoclimate Reconstructions and Modeling of Temperature Conditional Quantiles

    PubMed Central

    Janson, Lucas; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2014-01-01

    Great strides have been made in the field of reconstructing past temperatures based on models relating temperature to temperature-sensitive paleoclimate proxies. One of the goals of such reconstructions is to assess if current climate is anomalous in a millennial context. These regression based approaches model the conditional mean of the temperature distribution as a function of paleoclimate proxies (or vice versa). Some of the recent focus in the area has considered methods which help reduce the uncertainty inherent in such statistical paleoclimate reconstructions, with the ultimate goal of improving the confidence that can be attached to such endeavors. A second important scientific focus in the subject area is the area of forward models for proxies, the goal of which is to understand the way paleoclimate proxies are driven by temperature and other environmental variables. One of the primary contributions of this paper is novel statistical methodology for (1) quantile regression with autoregressive residual structure, (2) estimation of corresponding model parameters, (3) development of a rigorous framework for specifying uncertainty estimates of quantities of interest, yielding (4) statistical byproducts that address the two scientific foci discussed above. We show that by using the above statistical methodology we can demonstrably produce a more robust reconstruction than is possible by using conditional-mean-fitting methods. Our reconstruction shares some of the common features of past reconstructions, but we also gain useful insights. More importantly, we are able to demonstrate a significantly smaller uncertainty than that from previous regression methods. In addition, the quantile regression component allows us to model, in a more complete and flexible way than least squares, the conditional distribution of temperature given proxies. This relationship can be used to inform forward models relating how proxies are driven by temperature. PMID:25587203

  12. Quantile regression for climate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marasinghe, Dilhani Shalika

    Quantile regression is a developing statistical tool which is used to explain the relationship between response and predictor variables. This thesis describes two examples of climatology using quantile regression.Our main goal is to estimate derivatives of a conditional mean and/or conditional quantile function. We introduce a method to handle autocorrelation in the framework of quantile regression and used it with the temperature data. Also we explain some properties of the tornado data which is non-normally distributed. Even though quantile regression provides a more comprehensive view, when talking about residuals with the normality and the constant variance assumption, we would prefer least square regression for our temperature analysis. When dealing with the non-normality and non constant variance assumption, quantile regression is a better candidate for the estimation of the derivative.

  13. Detectors in Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Blaj, G.; Carini, G.; Carron, S.; Haller, G.; Hart, P.; Hasi, J.; Herrmann, S.; Kenney, C.; Segal, J.; Tomada, A.

    2015-08-06

    Free Electron Lasers opened a new window on imaging the motion of atoms and molecules. At SLAC, FEL experiments are performed at LCLS using 120Hz pulses with 1012 - 1013 photons in 10 femtoseconds (billions of times brighter than the most powerful synchrotrons). This extreme detection environment raises unique challenges, from obvious to surprising. Radiation damage is a constant threat due to accidental exposure to insufficiently attenuated beam, focused beam and formation of ice crystals reflecting the beam onto the detector. Often high power optical lasers are also used (e.g., 25TW), increasing the risk of damage or impeding data acquisition through electromagnetic pulses (EMP). The sample can contaminate the detector surface or even produce shrapnel damage. Some experiments require ultra high vacuum (UHV) with strict design, surface contamination and cooling requirements - also for detectors. The setup is often changed between or during experiments with short turnaround times, risking mechanical and ESD damage, requiring work planning, training of operators and sometimes continuous participation of the LCLS Detector Group in the experiments. The detectors used most often at LCLS are CSPAD cameras for hard x-rays and pnCCDs for soft x-rays.

  14. Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression

    PubMed Central

    Reich, Brian J.; Fuentes, Montserrat; Dunson, David B.

    2013-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act and has been linked with several adverse health effects, including mortality. Due to the strong dependence on weather conditions, ozone may be sensitive to climate change and there is great interest in studying the potential effect of climate change on ozone, and how this change may affect public health. In this paper we develop a Bayesian spatial model to predict ozone under different meteorological conditions, and use this model to study spatial and temporal trends and to forecast ozone concentrations under different climate scenarios. We develop a spatial quantile regression model that does not assume normality and allows the covariates to affect the entire conditional distribution, rather than just the mean. The conditional distribution is allowed to vary from site-to-site and is smoothed with a spatial prior. For extremely large datasets our model is computationally infeasible, and we develop an approximate method. We apply the approximate version of our model to summer ozone from 1997–2005 in the Eastern U.S., and use deterministic climate models to project ozone under future climate conditions. Our analysis suggests that holding all other factors fixed, an increase in daily average temperature will lead to the largest increase in ozone in the Industrial Midwest and Northeast. PMID:23459794

  15. Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression.

    PubMed

    Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat; Dunson, David B

    2011-03-01

    Tropospheric ozone is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act and has been linked with several adverse health effects, including mortality. Due to the strong dependence on weather conditions, ozone may be sensitive to climate change and there is great interest in studying the potential effect of climate change on ozone, and how this change may affect public health. In this paper we develop a Bayesian spatial model to predict ozone under different meteorological conditions, and use this model to study spatial and temporal trends and to forecast ozone concentrations under different climate scenarios. We develop a spatial quantile regression model that does not assume normality and allows the covariates to affect the entire conditional distribution, rather than just the mean. The conditional distribution is allowed to vary from site-to-site and is smoothed with a spatial prior. For extremely large datasets our model is computationally infeasible, and we develop an approximate method. We apply the approximate version of our model to summer ozone from 1997-2005 in the Eastern U.S., and use deterministic climate models to project ozone under future climate conditions. Our analysis suggests that holding all other factors fixed, an increase in daily average temperature will lead to the largest increase in ozone in the Industrial Midwest and Northeast. PMID:23459794

  16. Quantile Vocoder

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swaminathan, Kumar

    1988-01-01

    Parameters of spectral envelope obtained statistically. Algorithm for digital compression of speech signals encodes power spectral density of each short interval of speech by use of quantiles or order statistics. Purpose to reduce bit rate and bandwidth required for transmission. When fully developed, quantile vocoder - speech-encoding system based on new algorithm - expected moderately complicated compared with other speech-encoding systems and reproduce high-quality speech from code transmitted at relatively low bit rates. Speech signal treated mathematically as though amplitude spectrum stationary during short coding intervals, called "windows". Window duration of 20 or 35 ms, chosen as compromise between frequency resolution and time resolution. During each window, short-time amplitude and power spectra found by sampling at high rate (typically 10 kHz) and taking fast Fourier transforms (FFT's).

  17. Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

    SciTech Connect

    Coe, R. G.; Neary, V. S.; Lawson, M. J.; Yu, Y.; Weber, J.

    2014-07-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, NM on May 13th-14th, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. hurricanes and other large storms) and to suggest how U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry.

  18. How Cells Endure Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-01

    One of natures most gripping feats of survival is now better understood. For the first time, Berkeley Lab scientists observed the chemical changes in individual cells that enable them to survive in conditions that should kill them. http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-stories/2009/07/07/cells-endure-extremes/

  19. Carbon tetrachloride under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Pravica, Michael; Sneed, Daniel; Wang, Yonggang; Smith, Quinlan; Subrahmanyam, Garimella

    2014-05-21

    We report on three experiments on carbon tetrachloride subjected to extreme conditions. In the first experiment, Raman spectra of CCl4 were acquired up to 28 GPa. Evidence was observed for at least two new phases of CCl4 above 14 GPa (phase VI) and above 22 GPa (phase VII). Decompression of the sample showed no evidence of pressure-induced decomposition. In the second experiment, a synchrotron x-ray diffraction study was performed up to 30 GPa verifying phase V and potential phases above 14 (VI) and 22 GPa (VII), respectively. In the third study, we examined irradiated CCl4 using synchrotron infrared spectroscopy to reduce fluorescent contamination. Some sort of carbon allotrope appears as a byproduct suggesting the following reaction with hard x-rays: CCl4+ hν → C + 2Cl2. PMID:24852546

  20. Carbon tetrachloride under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Pravica, Michael Sneed, Daniel; Wang, Yonggang; Smith, Quinlan; Subrahmanyam, Garimella

    2014-05-21

    We report on three experiments on carbon tetrachloride subjected to extreme conditions. In the first experiment, Raman spectra of CCl{sub 4} were acquired up to 28 GPa. Evidence was observed for at least two new phases of CCl{sub 4} above 14 GPa (phase VI) and above 22 GPa (phase VII). Decompression of the sample showed no evidence of pressure-induced decomposition. In the second experiment, a synchrotron x-ray diffraction study was performed up to 30 GPa verifying phase V and potential phases above 14 (VI) and 22 GPa (VII), respectively. In the third study, we examined irradiated CCl{sub 4} using synchrotron infrared spectroscopy to reduce fluorescent contamination. Some sort of carbon allotrope appears as a byproduct suggesting the following reaction with hard x-rays: CCl{sub 4}+ hν → C + 2Cl{sub 2}.

  1. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  2. Materials Response under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Remington, B A; Lorenz, K T; Pollaine, S; McNaney, J M

    2005-10-06

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures, 10-100 GPa (0.1-1 Mbar) and strain rates (10{sup 6}-10{sup 8} s{sup -1}) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. The goal is an experimental capability to test constitutive models for high-pressure, solid-state strength for a variety of materials. Relevant constitutive models are discussed, and our progress in developing a quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure, shockless drive is given. Designs to test the constitutive models with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples are presented.

  3. Complex Plasma Research Under Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ishihara, Osamu

    2008-09-07

    Complex plasma research under extreme conditions is described. The extreme conditions include low-dimensionality for self-organized structures of dust particles, dust magnetization in high magnetic field, criticality in phase transition, and cryogenic environment for Coulomb crystals and dust dynamics.

  4. Study of extreme nuclear shapes in extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Banerjee, Sudhee Ranjan

    2014-08-14

    Studies of extreme nuclear shapes have always fascinated scientists and are being pursued quite strongly over the years. Nuclei present themselves with interesting shapes and structures at different conditions of spin, excitation and also with the number of neutrons and/or protons in them. Gamma decays from the Giant dipole Resonances in nuclei can probe directly their shapes at different extreme conditions by looking at their resonant line-shapes, e.g., Jacobi shapes and shape-transitions, super/hyper-deformation etc. Similar such studies, done for the first time, using the LAMBDA high energy gamma spectrometer developed at VECC, is discussed here.

  5. Study of extreme nuclear shapes in extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Sudhee Ranjan

    2014-08-01

    Studies of extreme nuclear shapes have always fascinated scientists and are being pursued quite strongly over the years. Nuclei present themselves with interesting shapes and structures at different conditions of spin, excitation and also with the number of neutrons and/or protons in them. Gamma decays from the Giant dipole Resonances in nuclei can probe directly their shapes at different extreme conditions by looking at their resonant line-shapes, e.g., Jacobi shapes and shape-transitions, super/hyper-deformation etc. Similar such studies, done for the first time, using the LAMBDA high energy gamma spectrometer developed at VECC, is discussed here.

  6. Raman spectroscopy under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Goncharov, A F; Crowhurst, J C

    2004-11-05

    We report the results of Raman measurements of various materials under simultaneous conditions of high temperature and high pressure in the diamond anvil cell (DAC). High temperatures are generated by laser heating or internal resistive (ohmic) heating or a combination of both. We present Raman spectra of cubic boron nitride (cBN) to 40 GPa and up to 2300 K that show a continuous pressure and temperature shift of the frequency of the transverse optical mode. We have also obtained high-pressure Raman spectra from a new noble metal nitride, which we synthesized at approximately 50 GPa and 2000 K. We have obtained high-temperature spectra from pure nitrogen to 39 GPa and up to 2000 K, which show the presence of a hot band that has previously been observed in CARS measurements. These measurements have also allowed us to constrain the melting curve and to examine changes in the intramolecular potential with pressure.

  7. Quantile-based classifiers

    PubMed Central

    Hennig, C.; Viroli, C.

    2016-01-01

    Classification with small samples of high-dimensional data is important in many application areas. Quantile classifiers are distance-based classifiers that require a single parameter, regardless of the dimension, and classify observations according to a sum of weighted componentwise distances of the components of an observation to the within-class quantiles. An optimal percentage for the quantiles can be chosen by minimizing the misclassification error in the training sample. It is shown that this choice is consistent for the classification rule with the asymptotically optimal quantile and that under some assumptions, as the number of variables goes to infinity, the probability of correct classification converges to unity. The effect of skewness of the distributions of the predictor variables is discussed. The optimal quantile classifier gives low misclassification rates in a comprehensive simulation study and in a real-data application. PMID:27279668

  8. Efficient Regressions via Optimally Combining Quantile Information*

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhibiao; Xiao, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    We develop a generally applicable framework for constructing efficient estimators of regression models via quantile regressions. The proposed method is based on optimally combining information over multiple quantiles and can be applied to a broad range of parametric and nonparametric settings. When combining information over a fixed number of quantiles, we derive an upper bound on the distance between the efficiency of the proposed estimator and the Fisher information. As the number of quantiles increases, this upper bound decreases and the asymptotic variance of the proposed estimator approaches the Cramér-Rao lower bound under appropriate conditions. In the case of non-regular statistical estimation, the proposed estimator leads to super-efficient estimation. We illustrate the proposed method for several widely used regression models. Both asymptotic theory and Monte Carlo experiments show the superior performance over existing methods. PMID:25484481

  9. Generation of multivariate near shore extreme wave conditions based on an extreme value copula for offshore boundary conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leyssen, Gert; Mercelis, Peter; De Schoesitter, Philippe; Blanckaert, Joris

    2013-04-01

    Near shore extreme wave conditions, used as input for numerical wave agitation simulations and for the dimensioning of coastal defense structures, need to be determined at a harbour entrance situated at the French North Sea coast. To obtain significant wave heights, the numerical wave model SWAN has been used. A multivariate approach was used to account for the joint probabilities. Considered variables are: wind velocity and direction, water level and significant offshore wave height and wave period. In a first step a univariate extreme value distribution has been determined for the main variables. By means of a technique based on the mean excess function, an appropriate member of the GPD is selected. An optimal threshold for peak over threshold selection is determined by maximum likelihood optimization. Next, the joint dependency structure for the primary random variables is modeled by an extreme value copula. Eventually the multivariate domain of variables was stratified in different classes, each of which representing a combination of variable quantiles with a joint probability, which are used for model simulation. The main variable is the wind velocity, as in the area of concern extreme wave conditions are wind driven. The analysis is repeated for 9 different wind directions. The secondary variable is water level. In shallow waters extreme waves will be directly affected by water depth. Hence the joint probability of occurrence for water level and wave height is of major importance for design of coastal defense structures. Wind velocity and water levels are only dependent for some wind directions (wind induced setup). Dependent directions are detected using a Kendall and Spearman test and appeared to be those with the longest fetch. For these directions, wind velocity and water level extreme value distributions are multivariately linked through a Gumbel Copula. These distributions are stratified into classes of which the frequency of occurrence can be

  10. Quantiles Regression Approach to Identifying the Determinant of Breastfeeding Duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahdiyah; Norsiah Mohamed, Wan; Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman

    In this study, quantiles regression approach is applied to the data of Malaysian Family Life Survey (MFLS), to identify factors which are significantly related to the different conditional quantiles of the breastfeeding duration. It is known that the classical linear regression methods are based on minimizing residual sum of squared, but quantiles regression use a mechanism which are based on the conditional median function and the full range of other conditional quantile functions. Overall, it is found that the period of breastfeeding is significantly related to place of living, religion and total number of children in the family.

  11. Interquantile Shrinkage and Variable Selection in Quantile Regression

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Liewen; Bondell, Howard D.; Wang, Huixia Judy

    2014-01-01

    Examination of multiple conditional quantile functions provides a comprehensive view of the relationship between the response and covariates. In situations where quantile slope coefficients share some common features, estimation efficiency and model interpretability can be improved by utilizing such commonality across quantiles. Furthermore, elimination of irrelevant predictors will also aid in estimation and interpretation. These motivations lead to the development of two penalization methods, which can identify the interquantile commonality and nonzero quantile coefficients simultaneously. The developed methods are based on a fused penalty that encourages sparsity of both quantile coefficients and interquantile slope differences. The oracle properties of the proposed penalization methods are established. Through numerical investigations, it is demonstrated that the proposed methods lead to simpler model structure and higher estimation efficiency than the traditional quantile regression estimation. PMID:24653545

  12. The quantile score and its decomposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bentzien, Sabrina; Friederichs, Petra

    2014-05-01

    Forecast verification for probabilistic weather and climate predictions gain more and more importance due to the increasing number of ensemble prediction systems. The predictive performance of probabilistic forecasts is generally assessed using proper score functions, which are applied to a set of forecast-observation pairs. The propriety of a score guarantees honesty and prevents hedging. A variety of proper scores exist for different types of probabilistic forecasts. Moreover, proper scoring functions can be decomposed into the three parts reliability, resolution, and uncertainty, which describe main characteristics of a forecasting scheme. This decomposition is well known for the Brier score and the continuous ranked probability score. This study expands the pool of verification methods for probabilistic forecasts by a decomposition of the quantile score (QS). Quantiles are suitable probabilistic measures especially for extreme forecast events, since they do not depend on an apriori defined threshold. The QS is a weighted absolute error between quantile forecasts and observations. We derive a decomposition of the QS in reliability, resolution, and uncertainty, and give a brief description of potential biases. A quantile reliability plot is presented. The quantile verification within this framework is illustrated on precipitation forecasts derived from the mesoscale ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Meteorological Service.

  13. Mixtures of planetary ices at extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Lee, Mal-Soon; Scandolo, Sandro

    2011-01-01

    The interiors of Neptune and Uranus are believed to be primarily composed of a fluid mixture of methane and water. The mixture is subjected to pressures up to several hundred gigapascal, causing the ionization of water. Laboratory and simulation studies so far have focused on the properties of the individual components. Here we show, using first-principle molecular dynamic simulations, that the properties of the mixed fluid are qualitatively different with respect to those of its components at the same conditions. We observe a pressure-induced softening of the methane-water intermolecular repulsion that points to an enhancement of mixing under extreme conditions. Ionized water causes the progressive ionization of methane and the mixture becomes electronically conductive at milder conditions than pure water, indicating that the planetary magnetic field of Uranus and Neptune may originate at shallower depths than currently assumed. PMID:21304514

  14. Tailoring of materials properties under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenkel, Thomas

    Materials can be driven far from equilibrium e. g. with intense pules of lasers and ions, in mostly destructive processes. When combined with micro- and nano-structuring, the ability to rapidly excite and then quench local excitations opens up. Now opportunities emerge to form and stabilize novel materials phases and to tailor materials properties for applications. Examples are color centers in diamond and silicon carbide for sensing and qubit applications and proposed ordered dopant structures in cuprate superconductors. Results from studies of materials processing under transient extreme conditions, far from equilibrium will be presented. This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

  15. Assessing surface air temperature variability using quantile regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timofeev, A. A.; Sterin, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Many researches in climate change currently involve linear trends, based on measured variables. And many of them only consider trends in mean values, whereas it is clear, that not only means, but also whole shape of distribution changes over time and requires careful assessment. For example extreme values including outliers may get bigger, while median has zero slope.Quantile regression provides a convenient tool, that enables detailed analysis of changes in full range of distribution by producing a vector of quantile trends for any given set of quantiles.We have applied quantile regression to surface air temperature observations made at over 600 weather stations across Russian Federation during last four decades. The results demonstrate well pronounced regions with similar values of significant trends in different parts of temperature value distribution (left tail, middle part, right tail). The uncertainties of quantile trend estimations for several spatial patterns of trends over Russia are estimated and analyzed for each of four seasons.For temperature trend estimation over vast territories, quantile regression is an effort consuming approach, but is more informative than traditional instrument, to assess decadal evolution of temperature values, including evolution of extremes.Partial support of ERA NET RUS ACPCA joint project between EU and RBRF 12-05-91656-ЭРА-А is highly appreciated.

  16. Matter Under Extreme Conditions: The Early Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keeler, R. Norris; Gibson, Carl H.

    2012-03-01

    Extreme conditions in natural flows are examined, starting with a turbulent big bang. A hydro-gravitational-dynamics cosmology model is adopted. Planck-Kerr turbulence instability causes Planck-particle turbulent combustion. Inertial-vortex forces induce a non-turbulent ki- netic energy cascade to Planck-Kolmogorov scales where vorticity is produced, overcoming 10113 Pa Planck-Fortov pressures. The spinning, expanding fireball has a slight deficit of Planck antiparticles. Space and mass-energy powered by gluon viscous stresses expand exponentially at speeds >1025 c. Turbulent temperature and spin fluctuations fossilize at scales larger than ct, where c is light speed and t is time. Because "dark-energy" antigravity forces vanish when infla- tion ceases, and because turbulence produces entropy, the universe is closed and will collapse and rebound. Density and spin fossils of big bang turbulent mixing trigger structure formation in the plasma epoch. Fragmenting protosuperclustervoids and protoclustervoids produce weak tur- bulence until the plasma-gas transition give chains of protogalaxies with the morphology of tur- bulence. Chain galaxy clusters observed at large redshifts ~8.6 support this interpretation. Pro- togalaxies fragment into clumps, each with a trillion Earth-mass H-He gas planets. These make stars, supernovae, the first chemicals, the first oceans and the first life soon after the cosmologi- cal event.

  17. Extraordinary survival of nanobacteria under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bjorklund, Michael; Ciftcioglu, Neva; Kajander, E. Olavi

    1998-07-01

    Nanobacteria show high resistance to gamma irradiation. To further examine their survival in extreme conditions several disinfecting and sterilizing chemicals as well as autoclaving, UV light, microwaves, heating and drying treatments were carried out. The effect of antibiotics used in cell culture were also evaluated. Two forms of nanobacteria were used in the tests: nanobacteria cultured in serum containing medium, and nanobacteria cultured in serum-free medium, the latter being more mineralized. Nanobacteria, having various amounts of apatite on their surfaces, were used to analyze the degree of protection given by the mineral. The chemicals tested included ethanol, glutaraldehyde, formalin, hypochlorite, hydrogen peroxide, hydrochloric acid, sodium hydroxide, detergents, and commercial disinfectants at concentrations generally used for disinfection. After chemical and physical treatments for various times, the nanobacteria were subcultered to detect their survival. The results show unique and wide resistance of nanobacteria to common agents used in disinfection. It can also be seen that the mineralization of the nanobacterial surface furthermore increases the resistance. Survival of nanobacteria is unique among living bacteria, but it can be compared with that observed in spores. Interestingly, nanobacteria have metabolic rate as slow as bacterial spores. A slow metabolic rate and protective structures, like mineral, biofilm and impermeable cell wall, can thus explain the observations made.

  18. Analysis of retirement income adequacy using quantile regression: A case study in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alaudin, Ros Idayuwati; Ismail, Noriszura; Isa, Zaidi

    2015-09-01

    Quantile regression is a statistical analysis that does not restrict attention to the conditional mean and therefore, permitting the approximation of the whole conditional distribution of a response variable. Quantile regression is a robust regression to outliers compared to mean regression models. In this paper, we demonstrate how quantile regression approach can be used to analyze the ratio of projected wealth to needs (wealth-needs ratio) during retirement.

  19. Quantile regression provides a fuller analysis of speed data.

    PubMed

    Hewson, Paul

    2008-03-01

    Considerable interest already exists in terms of assessing percentiles of speed distributions, for example monitoring the 85th percentile speed is a common feature of the investigation of many road safety interventions. However, unlike the mean, where t-tests and ANOVA can be used to provide evidence of a statistically significant change, inference on these percentiles is much less common. This paper examines the potential role of quantile regression for modelling the 85th percentile, or any other quantile. Given that crash risk may increase disproportionately with increasing relative speed, it may be argued these quantiles are of more interest than the conditional mean. In common with the more usual linear regression, quantile regression admits a simple test as to whether the 85th percentile speed has changed following an intervention in an analogous way to using the t-test to determine if the mean speed has changed by considering the significance of parameters fitted to a design matrix. Having briefly outlined the technique and briefly examined an application with a widely published dataset concerning speed measurements taken around the introduction of signs in Cambridgeshire, this paper will demonstrate the potential for quantile regression modelling by examining recent data from Northamptonshire collected in conjunction with a "community speed watch" programme. Freely available software is used to fit these models and it is hoped that the potential benefits of using quantile regression methods when examining and analysing speed data are demonstrated. PMID:18329400

  20. Evaluating environmental joint extremes for the offshore industry using the conditional extremes model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewans, Kevin; Jonathan, Philip

    2014-02-01

    Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore structures is fundamental in determining the design loads. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity, and a floating system responds in a complex way to both variables. Specification of joint extremes in design criteria has often been somewhat ad hoc, being based on fairly arbitrary combinations of extremes of variables estimated independently. Such approaches are even outlined in design guidelines. Mathematically more consistent estimates of the joint occurrence of extreme environmental variables fall into two camps in the offshore industry - response-based and response-independent. Both are outlined here, with emphasis on response-independent methods, particularly those based on the conditional extremes model recently introduced by (Heffernan and Tawn, 2004), which has a solid theoretical motivation. We illustrate an application of the conditional extremes model to joint estimation of extreme storm peak significant wave height and peak period at a northern North Sea location, incorporating storm direction as a model covariate. We also discuss joint estimation of extreme current profiles with depth off the North West Shelf of Australia. Methods such as the conditional extremes model provide valuable additions to the metocean engineer's toolkit.

  1. Dielectric Properties of Water Under Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Ding

    2014-03-01

    Water is a major component of fluids in the Earth's mantle, where its properties are substantially different from those at ambient conditions. At the pressures and temperatures of the mantle, experiments on aqueous fluids are challenging, and several fundamental properties of water are poorly known; e.g., its dielectric constant has not been measured. This lack of knowledge of water dielectric properties has greatly limited our ability to model water-rock interactions and, in general, our understanding of aqueous fluids below the Earth's crust. Using ab initio molecular dynamics, we computed the dielectric constant of water under the conditions of the Earth's upper mantle, and we predicted the solubility products of carbonate minerals. We found that MgCO3 (magnesite)--insoluble in water under ambient conditions--becomes at least slightly soluble at the bottom of the upper mantle, suggesting that water may transport significant quantities of oxidized carbon. We also computed the electronic dielectric constant of water as a function of pressure and we found that, contrary to expectations based on widely used simple models, both the refractive index and the electronic band gap of water increase under pressure. The work is supported by DOE-CMCSN under Grant DE-SC0005180 and by the Sloan Foundation through the Deep Carbon Observatory.

  2. A multivariate multi-timescale quantile-quantile bias correction approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehrotra, Raj; Sharma, Ashish

    2015-04-01

    A novel multivariate quantile-based nesting bias correction approach is developed for the removal of systematic biases in the global circulation model outputs at multiple time scales. Compared to the widely used quantile-matching method that is univariate, offers correction only at a single time scale of interest and considers only distributional biases, the proposed method simultaneously considers multiple variables, multiple time scales and in addition to the adjustment of the model CDF, also corrects for the biases in the lag-0 and lag-1 persistence attributes across all the time scales considered. The proposed methodology builds on our earlier works on nesting bias correction, which progressively corrects GCM simulations from lower to higher time scales to impart the observed distributional and persistence properties across the selected multiple time scales. The proposed approach combines the best of both quantile matching and nesting approaches and offers an improved basis for applying bias correction simultaneously on many variables across multiple time scales. The use of the approach in hydrology and water resources related downscaling applications is expected to have important consequences for the occurrence and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, floods, and droughts. Being simple and versatile, the proposed approach can be used to produce auxiliary ensemble scenarios for various climate impact-oriented applications.

  3. Quantile-oriented nonlinear time series modelling of river flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elek, P.; Márkus, L.

    2003-04-01

    Daily river flows of Tisza River in Hungary are investigated. Various by now classical methods suggest that the series exhibit substantial long memory. Thus, as a first step, a fractional ARIMA model may be fitted to the appropriately deseasonalised data. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated easily from the bootstrapped innovations. (This approach has recently been used by Montanari et al., Water Resources Res. 33, 1035-1044., 1997.) However, simulating flows for the Tisza river this way, we experience a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. It brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent: their squares and their absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, they display nonseasonal periods of high and low variances. We propose to fit a smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) process to the innovations. Similar models are frequently used in mathematical finance to analyse uncorrelated series with time-varying variance. However, as hydrologic time series are less heavy-tailed than financial ones, the models must differ as well. In a standard GARCH-model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in the model that we intend to present in detail at the conference, it is a bounded function. The new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by Hungarian Research Dev. Programme NKFP, grant No. 3/067/2001 and by Nat. Sci. Research Fund OTKA, grant No. T 032725.

  4. Focus issue on the Study of Matter at Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saini, Naurang L.; Saxena, Surendra K.; Bansil, Arun

    2015-09-01

    Study of matter at extreme conditions encompasses many different approaches for understanding the physics, chemistry and materials science underlying processes, products and technologies important for society. Although extreme conditions have been associated traditionally with research in areas of geology, mineral and earth sciences, the field has expanded in the recent years to include work on energy related materials and quantum functional materials from hard to soft matter. With the motivation to engage a large number of scientists with various disciplinary interests, ranging from physics, chemistry, geophysics to materials science, the study of matter at extreme conditions has been the theme of a series of conferences hosted by the High Pressure Science Society of America (HiPSSA) and the Center for the Study of Matter at Extreme Conditions (CeSMEC) of Florida International University (FIU), Miami. These SMEC (Study of Matter at Extreme Conditions) conferences are aimed at providing a unique platform for leading researchers to meet and share cutting-edge developments, and to bridge established fields under this interdisciplinary umbrella for research on materials. The seventh meeting in the SMEC series was held during March 23-30, 2013, while sailing from Miami to the Caribbean Islands, and concluded with great enthusiasm.

  5. Quantile Regression with Censored Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lin, Guixian

    2009-01-01

    The Cox proportional hazards model and the accelerated failure time model are frequently used in survival data analysis. They are powerful, yet have limitation due to their model assumptions. Quantile regression offers a semiparametric approach to model data with possible heterogeneity. It is particularly powerful for censored responses, where the…

  6. Plasma-surface interactions under extreme conditions: challenges and opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Temmerman, Gregory

    2013-09-01

    In a fusion reactor, power from the hot core plasma has to be exhausted by the plasma-facing components which are exposed to extreme heat (>10MW.m-2) and particle fluxes (up to 1024m-2s-1 or 1.6×105A.m-2) - orders of magnitude higher than in conventional plasma processing technique. Much of the fundamentals of the materials behaviour under such extreme ion irradiation conditions is not yet fully understood and limits our ability to develop materials able to survive those conditions. Combining a high efficiency plasma source and a strong magnetic field, linear plasma devices (LPD) allow to reproduce and even exceed the conditions expected in a fusion reactor. Owing to the good access to the plasma-material interaction zone for diagnostics and sample manipulation, those devices allow advanced experiments necessary to the fundamental understanding of plasma-surface interactions. In addition, the ion flux is such that a direct comparison with MD modelling, traditionally hampered by the large gap between fluxes in model and experiments, is now possible. This presentation will give an overview of the research performed to understand materials behaviour under extreme conditions with a focus on irradiation-driven modifications of metals. In parallel, the non-equilibrium conditions induced by the surface bombardment by extreme fluxes of low-energy particles open a novel route for the synthesis of advanced nanostructured materials, an illustration of which will be given.

  7. The Extreme Conditions Beamline P02.2 and the Extreme Conditions Science Infrastructure at PETRA III.

    PubMed

    Liermann, H P; Konôpková, Z; Morgenroth, W; Glazyrin, K; Bednarčik, J; McBride, E E; Petitgirard, S; Delitz, J T; Wendt, M; Bican, Y; Ehnes, A; Schwark, I; Rothkirch, A; Tischer, M; Heuer, J; Schulte-Schrepping, H; Kracht, T; Franz, H

    2015-07-01

    A detailed description is presented of the Extreme Conditions Beamline P02.2 for micro X-ray diffraction studies of matter at simultaneous high pressure and high/low temperatures at PETRA III, in Hamburg, Germany. This includes performance of the X-ray optics and instrumental resolution as well as an overview of the different sample environments available for high-pressure studies in the diamond anvil cell. Particularly emphasized are the high-brilliance and high-energy X-ray diffraction capabilities of the beamline in conjunction with the use of fast area detectors to conduct time-resolved compression studies in the millisecond time regime. Finally, the current capability of the Extreme Conditions Science Infrastructure to support high-pressure research at the Extreme Conditions Beamline and other PETRA III beamlines is described. PMID:26134794

  8. Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, Rodney C.; Lang, Maik

    2015-07-30

    The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO2, GeO2, CeO2, TiO2, HfO2, SnO2, ZnO and ZrO2) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

  9. Study for Germination Under Extreme Hypobaric and Hypoxic Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, H.

    2010-04-01

    In order to investigate a possibility of plant cultivation for the space agriculture on Mars, germination rate for six species of plant under extreme hypobaric and hypoxic condition was measured. As a result, seeds of Jute and Cucumber were able to germinate in six species.

  10. Estimating equivalence with quantile regression.

    PubMed

    Cade, Brian S

    2011-01-01

    Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. PMID:21516905

  11. Non-Stationary Hydrologic Frequency Analysis using B-Splines Quantile Regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nasri, B.; St-Hilaire, A.; Bouezmarni, T.; Ouarda, T.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic frequency analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists to provide the basic information on planning, design and management of hydraulic structures and water resources system under the assumption of stationarity. However, with increasing evidence of changing climate, it is possible that the assumption of stationarity would no longer be valid and the results of conventional analysis would become questionable. In this study, we consider a framework for frequency analysis of extreme flows based on B-Splines quantile regression, which allows to model non-stationary data that have a dependence on covariates. Such covariates may have linear or nonlinear dependence. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. A coefficient of determination for quantiles regression is proposed to evaluate the estimation of the proposed model for each quantile level. The method is applied on annual maximum and minimum streamflow records in Ontario, Canada. Climate indices are considered to describe the non-stationarity in these variables and to estimate the quantiles in this case. The results show large differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents for annual maximum and minimum discharge with high annual non-exceedance probabilities. Keywords: Quantile regression, B-Splines functions, MCMC, Streamflow, Climate indices, non-stationarity.

  12. Forecasting peak asthma admissions in London: an application of quantile regression models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soyiri, Ireneous N.; Reidpath, Daniel D.; Sarran, Christophe

    2013-07-01

    Asthma is a chronic condition of great public health concern globally. The associated morbidity, mortality and healthcare utilisation place an enormous burden on healthcare infrastructure and services. This study demonstrates a multistage quantile regression approach to predicting excess demand for health care services in the form of asthma daily admissions in London, using retrospective data from the Hospital Episode Statistics, weather and air quality. Trivariate quantile regression models (QRM) of asthma daily admissions were fitted to a 14-day range of lags of environmental factors, accounting for seasonality in a hold-in sample of the data. Representative lags were pooled to form multivariate predictive models, selected through a systematic backward stepwise reduction approach. Models were cross-validated using a hold-out sample of the data, and their respective root mean square error measures, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values compared. Two of the predictive models were able to detect extreme number of daily asthma admissions at sensitivity levels of 76 % and 62 %, as well as specificities of 66 % and 76 %. Their positive predictive values were slightly higher for the hold-out sample (29 % and 28 %) than for the hold-in model development sample (16 % and 18 %). QRMs can be used in multistage to select suitable variables to forecast extreme asthma events. The associations between asthma and environmental factors, including temperature, ozone and carbon monoxide can be exploited in predicting future events using QRMs.

  13. Nanoscale Phase Transitions under Extreme Conditions within an Ion Track

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jiaming; Lang, Maik; Ewing, Rodney C.; Devanathan, Ramaswami; Weber, William J.; Toulemonde, Marcel

    2010-06-30

    The dynamics of track development due to the passage of relativistic heavy ions through solids is a long-standing issue relevant to nuclear materials, age-dating of minerals, space exploration, and nanoscale fabrication of novel devices. We have integrated experimental and simulation approaches to investigate nanoscale phase transitions under the extreme conditions created within single tracks of relativistic ions in Gd2O3(TiO2)x and Gd2Zr2-xTixO7. Track size and internal structure depend on energy-density deposition, irradiation temperature, and material composition. Molecular dynamics methods based on the thermal spike model have simulated, for the first time, the internal structure of individual tracks, consistent with experimental observations. Individual ion tracks have nanoscale core-shell structures that provide a unique record of the phase transition pathways under extreme conditions.

  14. Nanoscale Phase Transitions under Extreme Conditions within an Ion Track

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jiaming; Lang, Maik; Ewing, Rodney C.; Devanathan, R.; Weber, William; Toulemonde, M.

    2011-01-31

    The dynamics of track development due to the passage of relativistic heavy ions through solids is a long-standing issue relevant to nuclear materials, age dating of minerals, space exploration, and nanoscale fabrication of novel devices. We have integrated experimental and simulation approaches to investigate nanoscale phase transitions under the extreme conditions created within single tracks of relativistic ions in Gd{sub 2}O{sub 3}(TiO{sub 2}){sub x} and Gd{sub 2}Zr{sub 2–x} Ti{sub x} O{sub 7}. Track size and internal structure depend on energy density deposition, irradiation temperature, and material composition. Based on the inelastic thermal spike model, molecular dynamics simulations follow the time evolution of individual tracks and reveal the phase transition pathways to the concentric track structures observed experimentally. Individual ion tracks have nanoscale core-shell structures that provide a unique record of the phase transition pathways under extreme conditions.

  15. Ultrasonic Technique for Density Measurement of Liquids in Extreme Conditions.

    PubMed

    Kazys, Rymantas; Sliteris, Reimondas; Rekuviene, Regina; Zukauskas, Egidijus; Mazeika, Liudas

    2015-01-01

    An ultrasonic technique, invariant to temperature changes, for a density measurement of different liquids under in situ extreme conditions is presented. The influence of geometry and material parameters of the measurement system (transducer, waveguide, matching layer) on measurement accuracy and reliability is analyzed theoretically along with experimental results. The proposed method is based on measurement of the amplitude of the ultrasonic wave, reflected from the interface of the solid/liquid medium under investigation. In order to enhance sensitivity, the use of a quarter wavelength acoustic matching layer is proposed. Therefore, the sensitivity of the measurement system increases significantly. Density measurements quite often must be performed in extreme conditions at high temperature (up to 220 °C) and high pressure. In this case, metal waveguides between piezoelectric transducer and the measured liquid are used in order to protect the conventional transducer from the influence of high temperature and to avoid depolarization. The presented ultrasonic density measurement technique is suitable for density measurement in different materials, including liquids and polymer melts in extreme conditions. A new calibration algorithm was proposed. The metrological evaluation of the measurement method was performed. The expanded measurement uncertainty Uρ = 7.4 × 10(-3) g/cm(3) (1%). PMID:26262619

  16. Ultrasonic Technique for Density Measurement of Liquids in Extreme Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Kazys, Rymantas; Sliteris, Reimondas; Rekuviene, Regina; Zukauskas, Egidijus; Mazeika, Liudas

    2015-01-01

    An ultrasonic technique, invariant to temperature changes, for a density measurement of different liquids under in situ extreme conditions is presented. The influence of geometry and material parameters of the measurement system (transducer, waveguide, matching layer) on measurement accuracy and reliability is analyzed theoretically along with experimental results. The proposed method is based on measurement of the amplitude of the ultrasonic wave, reflected from the interface of the solid/liquid medium under investigation. In order to enhance sensitivity, the use of a quarter wavelength acoustic matching layer is proposed. Therefore, the sensitivity of the measurement system increases significantly. Density measurements quite often must be performed in extreme conditions at high temperature (up to 220 °C) and high pressure. In this case, metal waveguides between piezoelectric transducer and the measured liquid are used in order to protect the conventional transducer from the influence of high temperature and to avoid depolarization. The presented ultrasonic density measurement technique is suitable for density measurement in different materials, including liquids and polymer melts in extreme conditions. A new calibration algorithm was proposed. The metrological evaluation of the measurement method was performed. The expanded measurement uncertainty Uρ = 7.4 × 10−3 g/cm3 (1%). PMID:26262619

  17. Dissolved carbon in extreme conditions characterized by first principles simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Ding; Galli, Giulia

    One key component to understanding carbon transport in the Earth interior is the determination of the molecular species formed when carbon bearing materials are dissolved in water at extreme conditions. We used first principles molecular dynamics to investigate oxidized carbon in water at high pressure (P) and high temperature (T), up to the conditions of the Earth's upper mantle. Contrary to popular geochemistry models assuming that CO2 is the major carbon species present in water, we found that most of the dissolved carbon at 10 GPa and 1000 K is in the form of solvated CO32- and HCO3-anions. We also found that ion pairing between alkali metal cations and CO32- or HCO3-anions is greatly affected by P-T conditions, decreasing with pressure along an isotherm. Our study shows that it is crucial to take into account the specific molecular structure of water under extreme conditions and the changes in hydrogen bonding occurring at high P and T, in order to predict chemical reactions in dissolved carbon. Our findings also shed light on possible reduction mechanisms of CO2 when it is geologically stored, depending on the availability of water. The work is supported by the Sloan Foundation through the Deep Carbon Observatory.

  18. Solid-State Photomultipliers Operated In Extreme Experimental Conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Erik; Augustine, Skip; Stapels, Christopher; Sia, Radia; Christian, James

    2007-10-01

    Nuclear and high-energy physics experiments that are conducted in harsh environments, such as in a liquid nitrogen bath, a high magnetic field of several Tesla, a small physical region of a few centimeters, a high intensity radiation field of hundreds of mrad/hour, require improved sensors that operate in these conditions. Advances in detector technology used in extreme environments can improve the data quality and allow new designs for experiments that operate under these conditions. Solid-State Photomultipliers (SSPM), a device built from an array of photodiodes, is a compact, high-gain photodetector with insensitivity to low temperatures, high radiation fields, and strong magnetic fields. Radiation Monitoring Devices has built SSPMs with CMOS processes, which allows for integrating signal processing and photon collection on one chip, allowing for a detector-on-a-chip design. SSPMs were exposed to 26 rads of dose from beams of 1 GeV/n silicon nuclei and 1 GeV protons, low temperature conditions from 77 K to 4 K, and high magnetic fields around 1 Tesla. The SSPMs were characterized under these extreme conditions.

  19. The Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC) instrument at LCLS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagler, Bob

    2015-06-01

    The last five years have seen the commissioning of and first user experiments on both the Free Electron Laser in Hamburg (FLASH) and the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) in Stanford, and more are slated to come online in the next couple of years . The high photon frequency (i.e. larger than the plasma frequency of solid density), short pulse length (i.e. 10s to 100s of femtoseconds) and large photon number per pulse (i.e. 1012 photons per pulse) make it an ideal source to create and study states of matter at high energy density, a long-standing scientific challenge. Indeed, while matter in extreme conditions, which for the purpose of this talk we define as states under pressure up to hundreds of GPa and with temperatures ranging between 1eV and 1000eV, has been studied through dynamic shock compression and there has been significant progress made over many decades. However, large uncertainties still exist in the atomic structure and crystallographic structure, existence of high pressure phases, scattering factors, and equation of state of matter in extreme conditions. The Matter in Extreme Condition (MEC) instrument at LCLS is designed to overcome the unique experimental challenges that the study of matter in extreme conditions bring. It combines a suite of diagnostics and high power and energy optical lasers, which are standard fare in this research field, with the unmatched LCLS X-ray beam, to create an instrument that will be at the forefront of, and have a major impact on MEC science, in particular in the field of high pressure, warm dense matter, high energy density, and ultra-high intensity laser-matter interaction studies. The LCLS beam allows for unique investigation in all these extreme states using diagnostic methods such as X-ray Thomson Scattering, X-ray emission spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, X-ray phase-contrast imaging, and pumping specific absorption lines to study (dense) plasma kinetics. Augmented with optical

  20. Wireless pilot monitoring system for extreme race conditions.

    PubMed

    Pino, Esteban J; Arias, Diego E; Aqueveque, Pablo; Melin, Pedro; Curtis, Dorothy W

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the design and implementation of an assistive device to monitor car drivers under extreme conditions. In particular, this system is designed in preparation for the 2012 Atacama Solar Challenge to be held in the Chilean desert. Actual preliminary results show the feasibility of such a project including physiological and ambient sensors, real-time processing algorithms, wireless data transmission and a remote monitoring station. Implementation details and field results are shown along with a discussion of the main problems found in real-life telemetry monitoring. PMID:23367054

  1. The application of quantile regression in autumn precipitation forecasting over Southeastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Baoqiang; Yuan, Huiling

    2014-05-01

    This study applies the quantile regression method to seasonal forecasts of autumn precipitation over Southeastern China. The dataset includes daily precipitation of 195 gauge stations over Southeastern China, and monthly means of circulation indices, global Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and 500hPa geopotential height. First, using the data from 1961 to 2000 for training, the predictors are chosen by stepwise regression and the prognostic equations of autumn total precipitation are created for each station using the traditional linear regression method. Similarly, the 0.5 quantile regression (median regression) is used to generate the prognostic equations for individual stations. Afterwards, using the data from 2001 to 2007 for validation, the autumn precipitation is forecasted using quantile regression and traditional linear regression respectively. Compared to traditional linear regression, the median regression has better forecast skills in terms of anomaly correlation coefficients, especially in the regions of north Guangxi Province and west Hunan Province. Furthermore, for each station, quantile regression can also estimate a confidence interval of autumn total precipitation using multiple quantiles, providing the range of uncertainties for predicting extreme seasonal precipitation. Keywords: quantile regression, precipitation, linear regression, seasonal forecasts

  2. X-ray diffraction at Matter in Extreme Conditions endstation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Zhou; Galtier, Eric; Lee, Hae Ja; Nagler, Bob

    2015-11-01

    Understanding dynamic response at the atomic level under extreme conditions is highly sought after goal to science frontiers studying warm dense matter, high pressure, geoscience, astrophysics, and planetary science. Thus it is of importance to determine the high pressure phases or metastable phases of material under shock compression. In situ X-ray diffraction technique using LCLS free electron laser X-ray is a powerful tool to record structural behavior and microstructure evolution in dense matter. Shock-induced compression and phase transitions of material lead to changes of the lattice spacing or evolution of new X-ray diffraction patterns. In this talk, we describe a platform dedicated for the X-ray diffraction studies at Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC), which can be used to reconstruct a complete diffraction pattern from numerous detectors, optimize detector positioning in a timely manner, extract the lattice spacing profiles and texture features. This platform is available to the user community for real-time analysis. We will also discuss experimental results, using this platform, on the crystalline silicon phase transitions up to 60 GPa.

  3. Extreme temperature conditions and wildland fires in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardil, A.; Eastaugh, C. S.; Molina, D. M.

    2015-10-01

    Extreme temperature events are known to favor large wildland fires. It is expected that fire activity will increase with changing climate. This work analyzes the effects of high-temperature days on medium and large fires (those larger than 50 ha) from 1978 to 2010 in Spain. A high-temperature day was defined as being when air temperature at 850 hPa was higher than the 95th percentile of air temperature at that elevation from June to September across the years 1978-2010. Temperature at 850 hPa was chosen because it properly characterizes the state of the lower troposphere. The effects of high temperature on forest fires were remarkable and significant in terms of fire number (15 % of total large fires occurred under high-temperature days) and burned area (25 % of the total burned area occurred under high-temperature days). Fire size was also significantly higher under the 95th percentile air temperature at 850 hPa, and a large part of the largest fires in the past 20 years were under these extreme conditions. Additionally, both burned area and fire number only decreased under non-high-temperature days in the study period and not under high-temperature conditions.

  4. Extreme Drought Conditions in the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutiérrez, F.; Dracup, J. A.

    2001-12-01

    The Treaty of February 3, 1944 entitled "Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande" between the U.S. and Mexico regulates the distribution of flows of the rivers between these two countries. The treaty is based on hydrological data available up to 1944. Using new (historical and paleoclimatological) data, the water balance presented in the Treaty is re-examinated and the 431,721,000 m3/year allocation for USA during "extreme drought conditions" is re-evaluated. The authors define "extreme drought conditions" for this basin and a hydrological drought analysis is carried out using a streamflow simulation model. The analysis is complemented with an analysis of the effects of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on precipitation and streamflow. The results of this research will be applicable to potential changes in the current water resources management policies on the basin. Given the social, economical and political importance of this basin, the findings of this research potentially will have significant impacts. This research is founded by the NSF fund SAHRA (Science and Technology Center to study and promote the "Sustainability of Water Resources in Semi-Arid Regions" at the University of Arizona).

  5. Quantile regression applied to spectral distance decay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rocchini, D.; Cade, B.S.

    2008-01-01

    Remotely sensed imagery has long been recognized as a powerful support for characterizing and estimating biodiversity. Spectral distance among sites has proven to be a powerful approach for detecting species composition variability. Regression analysis of species similarity versus spectral distance allows us to quantitatively estimate the amount of turnover in species composition with respect to spectral and ecological variability. In classical regression analysis, the residual sum of squares is minimized for the mean of the dependent variable distribution. However, many ecological data sets are characterized by a high number of zeroes that add noise to the regression model. Quantile regressions can be used to evaluate trend in the upper quantiles rather than a mean trend across the whole distribution of the dependent variable. In this letter, we used ordinary least squares (OLS) and quantile regressions to estimate the decay of species similarity versus spectral distance. The achieved decay rates were statistically nonzero (p < 0.01), considering both OLS and quantile regressions. Nonetheless, the OLS regression estimate of the mean decay rate was only half the decay rate indicated by the upper quantiles. Moreover, the intercept value, representing the similarity reached when the spectral distance approaches zero, was very low compared with the intercepts of the upper quantiles, which detected high species similarity when habitats are more similar. In this letter, we demonstrated the power of using quantile regressions applied to spectral distance decay to reveal species diversity patterns otherwise lost or underestimated by OLS regression. ?? 2008 IEEE.

  6. Material dynamics under extreme conditions of pressure and strain rate

    SciTech Connect

    Remington, B A; Allen, P; Bringa, E; Hawreliak, J; Ho, D; Lorenz, K T; Lorenzana, H; Meyers, M A; Pollaine, S W; Rosolankova, K; Sadik, B; Schneider, M S; Swift, D; Wark, J; Yaakobi, B

    2005-09-06

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures (10-100 GPa) and strain rates ({approx}10{sup 6}-10{sup 8}s{sup -1}) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities, and offer the possibility for exploring new regimes of materials science. These extreme solid-state conditions can be accessed with either shock loading or with a quasi-isentropic ramped pressure drive. Velocity interferometer measurements establish the high pressure conditions. Constitutive models for solid-state strength under these conditions are tested by comparing 2D continuum simulations with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples. Lattice compression, phase, and temperature are deduced from extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements, from which the shock-induced {alpha}-{omega} phase transition in Ti and the {alpha}-{var_epsilon} phase transition in Fe are inferred to occur on sub-nanosec time scales. Time resolved lattice response and phase can also be measured with dynamic x-ray diffraction measurements, where the elastic-plastic (1D-3D) lattice relaxation in shocked Cu is shown to occur promptly (< 1 ns). Subsequent large-scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations elucidate the microscopic dynamics that underlie the 3D lattice relaxation. Deformation mechanisms are identified by examining the residual microstructure in recovered samples. The slip-twinning threshold in single-crystal Cu shocked along the [001] direction is shown to occur at shock strengths of {approx}20 GPa, whereas the corresponding transition for Cu shocked along the [134] direction occurs at higher shock strengths. This slip-twinning threshold also depends on the stacking fault energy (SFE), being lower for low SFE materials. Designs have been developed for achieving much higher pressures, P > 1000 GPa, in the solid state on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) laser.

  7. Lower Extremity Overuse Conditions Affecting Figure Skaters During Daily Training

    PubMed Central

    Campanelli, Valentina; Piscitelli, Francesco; Verardi, Luciano; Maillard, Pauline; Sbarbati, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Background Most ice figure skaters train and compete with ongoing issues in the lower extremities, which are often overlooked by the skaters and considered injuries only when they prevent the athletes from skating. Although not severe, these conditions impair the quality of daily training and compromise the skaters’ state of mind and performances. Purpose (1) To determine the point prevalence of the ongoing lower extremity overuse conditions in a population of ice figure skaters of all ages and levels and (2) to identify the risk factors contributing to the development of the most common ongoing conditions. Study Design Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods A total of 95 skaters of all ages and skating levels were evaluated in a single examination in the middle of the competitive season. Data collection consisted of a questionnaire, clinical examination, and measurement of the skaters’ characteristics and the equipment used. Results Retrocalcaneal bursitis was the most common problem, affecting at least 1 foot in 34% of the skaters evaluated, followed by posterior heel skin calluses and superficial calcaneal bursitis, which affected 29% and 28% of skaters, respectively. The prevalence of the majority of these conditions was 10% to 32% higher in elite skaters than in nonelite skaters. Higher boot–foot length difference was associated with greater risk of superficial calcaneal bursitis in the landing foot of elite skaters, while higher body weight and greater in-skate ankle flexibility were associated with the development of retrocalcaneal bursitis in nonelite skaters. Only 30 skaters (32%) wore the appropriate boot size, while 57 skaters (51%) could not dorsiflex their ankles properly while wearing skates. Conclusion The heel represents a major area of concern for the high prevalence of calcaneal bursitis and calluses in proximity of the Achilles tendon, suggesting that improvements on the boot heel cup design should take priority. The

  8. Synthesis, structure, and properties of glasses under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerette, Michael J.

    Anomalous mechanical properties of silica glass include stiffening upon heating, initially softening under pressure, and non-linear elastic response to strains. Through understanding structural changes in silica glass under a broad range of temperature, pressure, and strain conditions and how they influence the mechanical properties, insight was gained for how to change the silica glass network to better suit specific uses in extreme conditions. In this dissertation, pressure-quenching routes were used to effectively change the glass atomic packing and to make densified glass. Applied in the non-rigid state near the glass transition temperature, quench pressures up to 8 GPa have been used to achieve density increase of 25% in silica glass. The resulting structure and properties of as-quenched samples have been investigated using XRD, Raman and Brillouin spectroscopy. In-situ Raman and Brillouin light scattering techniques were developed to study the structure, elastic and dynamic properties of silica glass under high temperature, high pressure and high strain conditions. High temperature measurements were carried out in an optical furnace up to 1500°C, a diamond anvil cell was used to carry out high pressure experiments up to 25 GPa, and a two-point bender was used for measuring glasses in excess of 6% strain in both tensile and compressive regions. Pressure-quenching from the non-rigid state near the glass transition temperature imparts structural signatures to densified silica glass that cannot be accomplished through cold compression at room temperature. The unique structures of pressure-quenched silica glass are reflected in decreased anomalous response of silica glass to external stimuli of high temperature or high pressure, and therefore greater thermo-mechanical stability. The nonlinear elastic behavior of silica glass has been directly probed from the compressive to the tensile side of silica fibers in bend by using in-situ Brillouin light scattering. This

  9. Quantiles for Finite Mixtures of Normal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rahman, Mezbahur; Rahman, Rumanur; Pearson, Larry M.

    2006-01-01

    Quantiles for finite mixtures of normal distributions are computed. The difference between a linear combination of independent normal random variables and a linear combination of independent normal densities is emphasized. (Contains 3 tables and 1 figure.)

  10. Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, José A. F.

    2010-05-01

    The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

  11. Porous materials for thermal management under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Clyne, T W; Golosnoy, I O; Tan, J C; Markaki, A E

    2006-01-15

    A brief analysis is presented of how heat transfer takes place in porous materials of various types. The emphasis is on materials able to withstand extremes of temperature, gas pressure, irradiation, etc. i.e. metals and ceramics, rather than polymers. A primary aim is commonly to maximize either the thermal resistance (i.e. provide insulation) or the rate of thermal equilibration between the material and a fluid passing through it (i.e. to facilitate heat exchange). The main structural characteristics concern porosity (void content), anisotropy, pore connectivity and scale. The effect of scale is complex, since the permeability decreases as the structure is refined, but the interfacial area for fluid-solid heat exchange is, thereby, raised. The durability of the pore structure may also be an issue, with a possible disadvantage of finer scale structures being poor microstructural stability under service conditions. Finally, good mechanical properties may be required, since the development of thermal gradients, high fluid fluxes, etc. can generate substantial levels of stress. There are, thus, some complex interplays between service conditions, pore architecture/scale, fluid permeation characteristics, convective heat flow, thermal conduction and radiative heat transfer. Such interplays are illustrated with reference to three examples: (i) a thermal barrier coating in a gas turbine engine; (ii) a Space Shuttle tile; and (iii) a Stirling engine heat exchanger. Highly porous, permeable materials are often made by bonding fibres together into a network structure and much of the analysis presented here is oriented towards such materials. PMID:18272456

  12. Parasite adaptation to extreme conditions in a desert environment.

    PubMed

    Tinsley, R C

    1999-01-01

    Deserts represent universally recognized extreme environments for animal life. This paper documents the highly specialized adaptations of Pseudodiplorchis americanus, a monogenean parasite of the desert toad, Scaphiopus couchii. Building on a long-term record of parasite population ecology (continuing since the early 1980s), field studies focus on the effects of severe drought in the Sonoran Desert, Arizona, in the mid 1990s. This provides a test of the ability of the host-parasite system to tolerate exceptional perturbation. The analysis provides new insight into parasite infection dynamics in a natural wildlife system through integration of host and parasite population age structure. The environmental check interrupted host recruitment in 1993-95 and parasite recruitment in 1995-97. This produced an imprint in age structure and infection levels recognizable over several years: parasite recruitment failure reduced transmission 2-3 years later. The host (maximum life span 17 years) tolerated the disruption but the impact was more serious for the parasite (life span 3 years) leading to extinction of some previously stable populations. Despite this demonstration of a rare event exacerbating external environmental constraints, experimental studies suggest that the internal (host) environment normally creates the most severe conditions affecting P. americanus. Only about 3% of parasites survive from invasion until first reproduction. Post-invasion factors including host immunity, characteristic of most parasite life cycles, constitute a greater constraint upon survival than external conditions, even in a desert environment. PMID:11254147

  13. Capabilities of the Extreme Conditions Beamline at PETRA III, DESY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liermann, Hanns-Peter; Konôpková, Zuzana; Morgenroth, Wolfgang; Rothkirch, Andre; Wittich, Eugen; Delitz, Jan-Torben; Ehnes, Anita

    2013-06-01

    At the end of 2010 the Extreme Conditions Beamline (ECB) at PETRA III received first beam and entered the commissioning phase. Since 2012 we are offering beamtime to general users to conduct a variety of different experiments such as powder and single diffraction in the laser/resistive heated and cryogenically cooled Diamond Anvil Cell (DAC). Particularly attractive has been our ability to conducted diffraction experiments at high energies of 60 and 77 keV for pair distribution function (PDF) studies as well as possibility to preform time resolved powder diffraction experiments at 26 and 43 keV with a maximum time resolution of 15 Hz. Within we present some of the current capabilities of the beamline as well as future plans to promote single crystal diffraction at high pressures and temperatures using both monochromatic and pink beam. Finally, we emphasis the present and future time resolved capabilities to conduct powder and single crystal diffraction experiments under dynamic compression and heating conditions in the DAC. Part of this project was funded by the ``Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung'' under contracts 05KS7RF1 and 05K10RFA ``Verbundprojekt: Messeinrichtungen fuer die Material- und Strukturforschung an PETRA III, 2: Laserheizung for ``ECB''.

  14. Proton delocalization under extreme conditions of high pressure and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Goncharov, Alexander F.; Crowhurst, Jonathan

    2008-10-02

    Knowledge of the behaviour of light hydrogen-containing molecules under extreme conditions of high pressure and temperature is crucial to a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental physics and chemistry that is relevant under such conditions. It is also vital for interpreting the results of planetary observations, in particular those of the gas giants, and also for various materials science applications. On a fundamental level, increasing pressure causes the redistribution of the electronic density, which results in a modification of the interatomic potentials followed by a consequent qualitative change in the character of the associated bonding. Ultimately, at sufficiently high pressure, one may anticipate a transformation to a homogeneously bonded material possessing unusual physical properties (e.g. a quantum fluid). As temperature increases so does the concentration of ionised species leading ultimately to a plasma. Considerable improvements have recently been made in both the corresponding experimental and theoretical investigations. Here we review recent results for hydrogen and water that reveal unexpected routes of transformation to nonmolecular materials. We stress the importance of quantum effects, which remain significant even at high temperatures.

  15. Synoptic conditions during wintertime temperature extremes in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassano, John J.; Cassano, Elizabeth N.; Seefeldt, Mark W.; Gutowski, William J.; Glisan, Justin M.

    2016-04-01

    The large-scale atmospheric state associated with widespread wintertime warm and cold extremes in southern Alaska was identified using 1989 to 2007 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-I) data. Extremes were defined as days with the coldest and warmest 1% of daily temperatures. Widespread extreme events were identified for days when at least 25 50 km grid cells in the study domain met the extreme temperature criteria. A total of 55 cold and 74 warm extreme days were identified in 19 winters. Composites of the atmospheric state from 5 days before through the day of the extreme events were analyzed to assess the large-scale atmospheric state associated with the extremes. The method of self-organizing maps (SOMs) was used to identify the range of sea level pressure (SLP) patterns present in the ERA-I December-February data, and these SLP patterns were then used to stratify the extreme days by their large-scale atmospheric circulation. Composites for all warm or cold extreme days showed less intense features than those for specific SLP patterns. In all of the composites temperature advection, strongest at 700 hPa, and anomalous longwave radiation were the primary factors that led to the extreme events. The anomalous downwelling longwave radiation was due to either reduced cloud cover, during cold extremes, or to increased cloud cover, during warm extremes. The SOM composites provided additional insight into the temporal evolution of the extreme days and highlighted different portions of southern Alaska most likely to experience temperature extremes for a given SOM SLP pattern.

  16. Fast temperature spectrometer for samples under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Dongzhou; Jackson, Jennifer M.; Sturhahn, Wolfgang; Zhao, Jiyong; Alp, E. Ercan; Toellner, Thomas S.; Hu, Michael Y.

    2015-01-15

    We have developed a multi-wavelength Fast Temperature Readout (FasTeR) spectrometer to capture a sample’s transient temperature fluctuations, and reduce uncertainties in melting temperature determination. Without sacrificing accuracy, FasTeR features a fast readout rate (about 100 Hz), high sensitivity, large dynamic range, and a well-constrained focus. Complimenting a charge-coupled device spectrometer, FasTeR consists of an array of photomultiplier tubes and optical dichroic filters. The temperatures determined by FasTeR outside of the vicinity of melting are, generally, in good agreement with results from the charge-coupled device spectrometer. Near melting, FasTeR is capable of capturing transient temperature fluctuations, at least on the order of 300 K/s. A software tool, SIMFaster, is described and has been developed to simulate FasTeR and assess design configurations. FasTeR is especially suitable for temperature determinations that utilize ultra-fast techniques under extreme conditions. Working in parallel with the laser-heated diamond-anvil cell, synchrotron Mössbauer spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction, we have applied the FasTeR spectrometer to measure the melting temperature of {sup 57}Fe{sub 0.9}Ni{sub 0.1} at high pressure.

  17. Focusing adaptive-optics for neutron spectroscopy at extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Simeoni, G. G.; Valicu, R. G.; Borchert, G.; Böni, P.; Rasmussen, N. G.; Yang, F.; Kordel, T.; Holland-Moritz, D.; Kargl, F.; Meyer, A.

    2015-12-14

    Neutron Spectroscopy employing extreme-conditions sample environments is nowadays a crucial tool for the understanding of fundamental scientific questions as well as for the investigation of materials and chemical-physical properties. For all these kinds of studies, an increased neutron flux over a small sample area is needed. The prototype of a focusing neutron guide component, developed and produced completely at the neutron source FRM II in Garching (Germany), has been installed at the time-of-flight (TOF) disc-chopper neutron spectrometer TOFTOF and came into routine-operation. The design is based on the compressed Archimedes' mirror concept for finite-size divergent sources. It represents a unique device combining the supermirror technology with Adaptive Optics, suitable for broad-bandwidth thermal-cold TOF neutron spectroscopy (here optimized for 1.4–10 Å). It is able to squeeze the beam cross section down to a square centimeter, with a more than doubled signal-to-background ratio, increased efficiency at high scattering angles, and improved symmetry of the elastic resolution function. We present a comparison between the simulated and measured beam cross sections, as well as the performance of the instrument within real experiments. This work intends to show the unprecedented opportunities achievable at already existing instruments, along with useful guidelines for the design and construction of next-generation neutron spectrometers.

  18. Focusing adaptive-optics for neutron spectroscopy at extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simeoni, G. G.; Valicu, R. G.; Borchert, G.; Böni, P.; Rasmussen, N. G.; Yang, F.; Kordel, T.; Holland-Moritz, D.; Kargl, F.; Meyer, A.

    2015-12-01

    Neutron Spectroscopy employing extreme-conditions sample environments is nowadays a crucial tool for the understanding of fundamental scientific questions as well as for the investigation of materials and chemical-physical properties. For all these kinds of studies, an increased neutron flux over a small sample area is needed. The prototype of a focusing neutron guide component, developed and produced completely at the neutron source FRM II in Garching (Germany), has been installed at the time-of-flight (TOF) disc-chopper neutron spectrometer TOFTOF and came into routine-operation. The design is based on the compressed Archimedes' mirror concept for finite-size divergent sources. It represents a unique device combining the supermirror technology with Adaptive Optics, suitable for broad-bandwidth thermal-cold TOF neutron spectroscopy (here optimized for 1.4-10 Å). It is able to squeeze the beam cross section down to a square centimeter, with a more than doubled signal-to-background ratio, increased efficiency at high scattering angles, and improved symmetry of the elastic resolution function. We present a comparison between the simulated and measured beam cross sections, as well as the performance of the instrument within real experiments. This work intends to show the unprecedented opportunities achievable at already existing instruments, along with useful guidelines for the design and construction of next-generation neutron spectrometers.

  19. Fast temperature spectrometer for samples under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Dongzhou; Jackson, Jennifer M.; Zhao, Jiyong; Sturhahn, Wolfgang; Alp, E. Ercan; Toellner, Thomas S.; Hu, Michael Y.

    2015-01-01

    We have developed a multi-wavelength Fast Temperature Readout (FasTeR) spectrometer to capture a sample's transient temperature fluctuations, and reduce uncertainties in melting temperature determination. Without sacrificing accuracy, FasTeR features a fast readout rate (about 100 Hz), high sensitivity, large dynamic range, and a well-constrained focus. Complimenting a charge-coupled device spectrometer, FasTeR consists of an array of photomultiplier tubes and optical dichroic filters. The temperatures determined by FasTeR outside of the vicinity of melting are, generally, in good agreement with results from the charge-coupled device spectrometer. Near melting, FasTeR is capable of capturing transient temperature fluctuations, at least on the order of 300 K/s. A software tool, SIMFaster, is described and has been developed to simulate FasTeR and assess design configurations. FasTeR is especially suitable for temperature determinations that utilize ultra-fast techniques under extreme conditions. Working in parallel with the laser-heated diamond-anvil cell, synchrotron Mössbauer spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction, we have applied the FasTeR spectrometer to measure the melting temperature of 57Fe0.9Ni0.1 at high pressure.

  20. Fast temperature spectrometer for samples under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dongzhou; Jackson, Jennifer M; Zhao, Jiyong; Sturhahn, Wolfgang; Alp, E Ercan; Toellner, Thomas S; Hu, Michael Y

    2015-01-01

    We have developed a multi-wavelength Fast Temperature Readout (FasTeR) spectrometer to capture a sample's transient temperature fluctuations, and reduce uncertainties in melting temperature determination. Without sacrificing accuracy, FasTeR features a fast readout rate (about 100 Hz), high sensitivity, large dynamic range, and a well-constrained focus. Complimenting a charge-coupled device spectrometer, FasTeR consists of an array of photomultiplier tubes and optical dichroic filters. The temperatures determined by FasTeR outside of the vicinity of melting are, generally, in good agreement with results from the charge-coupled device spectrometer. Near melting, FasTeR is capable of capturing transient temperature fluctuations, at least on the order of 300 K/s. A software tool, SIMFaster, is described and has been developed to simulate FasTeR and assess design configurations. FasTeR is especially suitable for temperature determinations that utilize ultra-fast techniques under extreme conditions. Working in parallel with the laser-heated diamond-anvil cell, synchrotron Mössbauer spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction, we have applied the FasTeR spectrometer to measure the melting temperature of (57)Fe0.9Ni0.1 at high pressure. PMID:25638070

  1. Ab initio Raman spectroscopy of water under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozsa, Viktor; Pan, Ding; Wan, Quan; Galli, Giulia

    Water exhibits one of the most complex phase diagrams of any binary compound. Despite extensive studies, the melting lines of high-pressure ice phases remain very controversial, with reports differing by hundreds of Kelvin. The boundary between ice VII and liquid phase is particularly disputed, with recent work exploring plasticity and amorphization mediating the transition. Raman measurements are often used to fingerprint melting, yet their interpretation is difficult without atomistic modeling. Here, we report a study of high P/T water where we computed Raman spectra using a method combining ab initio molecular dynamics and density functional perturbation theory, as implemented in the Qbox code. Spectra were computed for the liquid at 10 and 20 GPa, both at 1000 K, and for solid ice VII (20 GPa, 500 K). Decomposing the spectra into inter and intra molecular contributions provided insight into the dynamics of the hydrogen-bonded network at extreme conditions. The relevance of our simulation results for models of water in Earth, Uranus, and Neptune will be discussed, and an interpretation of existing experiments at high pressure will be presented.

  2. [Sports and extreme conditions. Cardiovascular incidence in long term exertion and extreme temperatures (heat, cold)].

    PubMed

    Melin, B; Savourey, G

    2001-06-30

    During ultra-endurance exercise, both increase in body temperature and dehydration due to sweat losses, lead to a decrease in central blood volume. The heart rate drift allows maintaining appropriate cardiac output, in order to satisfy both muscle perfusion and heat transfer requirements by increasing skin blood flow. The resulting dehydration can impair thermal regulation and increase the risks of serious accidents as heat stroke. Endurance events, lasting more than 8 hours, result in large sweat sodium chloride losses. Thus, ingestion of large amounts of water with poor salt intake can induce symptomatic hyponatremia (plasma sodium < 130 mEq/L) which is also a serious accident. Heat environment increases the thermal constraint and when the air humidity is high, evaporation of sweat is compromise. Thus, thermal stress becomes uncompensable which increases the risk of cardiovascular collapse. Cold exposure induces physiological responses to maintain internal temperature by both limiting thermal losses and increasing metabolic heat production. Cold can induce accidental hypothermia and local frost-bites; moreover, it increases the risk of arrhythmia during exercise. Some guidelines (cardiovascular fitness, water and electrolyte intakes, protective clothing) are given for each extreme condition. PMID:11505864

  3. Final Report for Project. Quark matter under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Incera, Vivian; Ferrer, Efrain

    2015-12-31

    The results obtained in the two years of the grant have served to shine new light on several important questions about the phases of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) under extreme conditions that include quark matter at high density, as well quark-gluon plasma at high temperatures, both in the presence of strong magnetic fields. The interest in including an external magnetic field on these studies is motivated by the generation of large magnetic fields in off-central heavy-ion collisions and by their common presence in astrophysical compact objects, the two scenarios where the physics of quark matter becomes relevant. The tasks carried out in this DOE project led us, among other things, to discover the first connection between the physics of very dense quark matter and novel materials as for instance topological insulators and Weyl semimetals; they allowed us to find a physical explanation for and a solution to a standing puzzle in the apparent effect of a magnetic field on the critical temperature of the QCD chiral transition; and they led us to establish by the first time that the core of the observed two-solar-mass neutron stars could be made up of quark matter in certain inhomogeneous chiral phases in a magnetic field and that this was consistent with current astrophysical observations. A major goal established by the Nuclear Science Advisory committee in its most recent report “Reaching for the Horizon” has been “to truly understand how nuclei and strongly interacting matter in all its forms behave and can predict their behavior in new settings.” The results found in this DOE project have all contributed to address this goal, and thus they are important for advancing fundamental knowledge in the area of nuclear physics and for enhancing our understanding of the role of strong magnetic fields in the two settings where they are most relevant, neutron stars and heavy-ion collisions.

  4. Extreme Conditioning Programs: Potential Benefits and Potential Risks.

    PubMed

    Knapik, Joseph J

    2015-01-01

    CrossFit, Insanity, Gym Jones, and P90X are examples of extreme conditioning programs (ECPs). ECPs typically involve high-volume and high-intensity physical activities with short rest periods between movements and use of multiple joint exercises. Data on changes in fitness with ECPs are limited to CrossFit investigations that demonstrated improvements in muscle strength, muscular endurance, aerobic fitness, and body composition. However, no study has directly compared CrossFit or other ECPs to other more traditional forms of aerobic and resistance training within the same investigation. These direct comparisons are needed to more adequately evaluate the effectiveness of ECPs. Until these studies emerge, the comparisons with available literature suggest that improvements in CrossFit, in terms of muscular endurance (push-ups, sit-ups), strength, and aerobic capacity, appear to be similar to those seen in more traditional training programs. Investigations of injuries in ECPs are limited to two observational studies that suggest that the overall injury rate is similar to that seen in other exercise programs. Several cases of rhabdomyolysis and cervical carotid artery dissections have been reported during CrossFit training. The symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment of these are reviewed here. Until more data on ECPs emerge, physical training should be aligned with US Army doctrine. If ECPs are included in exercise programs, trainers should (1) have appropriate training certifications, (2) inspect exercise equipment regularly to assure safety, (3) introduce ECPs to new participants, (4) ensure medical clearance of Soldiers with special health problems before participation in ECPs, (4) tailor ECPs to the individual Soldier, (5) adjust rest periods to optimize recovery and reduce fatigue, (6) monitor Soldiers for signs of overtraining, rhabdomyolysis, and other problems, and (7) coordinate exercise programs with other unit training activities to eliminate redundant activities

  5. The Reactivity of Energetic Materials At Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Fried, L E

    2006-10-23

    shock conditions, for example, energetic materials undergo rapid heating to a few thousand degrees and are subjected to a compression of hundreds of kilobars, resulting in almost 30% volume reduction. Complex chemical reactions are thus initiated, in turn releasing large amounts of energy to sustain the detonation process. Clearly, understanding of the various chemical events at these extreme conditions is essential in order to build predictive material models. Scientific investigations into the reactive process have been undertaken over the past two decades. However, the sub-{micro}s time scale of explosive reactions, in addition to the highly exothermic conditions of an explosion, make experimental investigation of the decomposition pathways difficult at best. More recently, new computational approaches to investigate condensed-phase reactivity in energetic materials have been developed. Here we focus on two different approaches to condensed-phase reaction modeling: chemical equilibrium methods and atomistic modeling of condensed-phase reactions. These are complementary approaches to understanding the chemical reactions of high explosives. Chemical equilibrium modeling uses a highly simplified thermodynamic picture of the reaction process, leading to a convenient and predictive model of detonation and other decomposition processes. Chemical equilibrium codes are often used in the design of new materials, both at the level of synthesis chemistry and formulation. Atomistic modeling is a rapidly emerging area. The doubling of computational power approximately every 18 months has made atomistic condensed-phase modeling more feasible. Atomistic calculations employ far fewer empirical parameters than chemical equilibrium calculations. Nevertheless, the atomistic modeling of chemical reactions requires an accurate global Born-Oppenheimer potential energy surface. Traditionally, such a surface is constructed by representing the potential energy surface with an analytical fit

  6. A quantile count model of water depth constraints on Cape Sable seaside sparrows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cade, B.S.; Dong, Q.

    2008-01-01

    1. A quantile regression model for counts of breeding Cape Sable seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis (L.) as a function of water depth and previous year abundance was developed based on extensive surveys, 1992-2005, in the Florida Everglades. The quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, providing a flexible alternative to discrete parametric distributional models, e.g. Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts. 2. Estimates from our multiplicative model demonstrated that negative effects of increasing water depth in breeding habitat on sparrow numbers were dependent on recent occupation history. Upper 10th percentiles of counts (one to three sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth from 0 to 30 cm when sites were not occupied in previous years. However, upper 40th percentiles of counts (one to six sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth for sites occupied in previous years. 3. Greatest decreases (-50% to -83%) in upper quantiles of sparrow counts occurred as water depths increased from 0 to 15 cm when previous year counts were 1, but a small proportion of sites (5-10%) held at least one sparrow even as water depths increased to 20 or 30 cm. 4. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model provided estimates of conditional means that also decreased with increasing water depth but rates of change were lower and decreased with increasing previous year counts compared to the quantile count model. Quantiles computed for the zero-inflated Poisson model enhanced interpretation of this model but had greater lack-of-fit for water depths > 0 cm and previous year counts 1, conditions where the negative effect of water depths were readily apparent and fitted better with the quantile count model.

  7. Matter in Extreme Conditions Instrument - Conceptual Design Report

    SciTech Connect

    Boyce, R.F.; Boyce, R.M.; Haller, G.; Hastings, J.B.; Hays, G.; Lee, H.J.; Lee, R.W.; Nagler, B.; Scharfenstein, M.; Marsh, D.; White, W.E.; /SLAC

    2009-12-09

    The SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SLAC), in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), is constructing a Free-Electron Laser (FEL) research facility. The FEL has already met its performance goals in the wavelength range 1.5 nm - 0.15 nm. This facility, the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS), utilizes the SLAC 2-Mile Linear Accelerator (linac) and will produce sub-picosecond pulses of short wavelength X-rays with very high peak brightness and almost complete transverse coherence. The final one-third of the SLAC linac is used as the source of electrons for the LCLS. The high energy electrons are transported across the SLAC Research Yard, into a tunnel which houses a long undulator. In passing through the undulator, the electrons are bunched by the force of their own synchrotron radiation and produce an intense, monochromatic, spatially coherent beam of X-rays. By varying the electron energy, the FEL X-ray wavelength is tunable from 1.5 nm to 0.15 nm. The LCLS includes two experimental halls as well as X-ray optics and infrastructure necessary to create a facility that can be developed for research in a variety of disciplines such as atomic physics, materials science, plasma physics and biosciences. This Conceptual Design Report, the authors believe, confirms the feasibility of designing and constructing an X-ray instrument in order to exploit the unique scientific capability of LCLS by creating extreme conditions and study the behavior of plasma under those controlled conditions. This instrument will address the Office of Science, Fusion Energy Sciences, mission objective related to study of Plasma and Warm Dense Matter as described in the report titled LCLS, the First Experiments, prepared by the LCLS Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) in September 2000. The technical objective of the LCLS Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC) Instrument project is

  8. Extreme anthropogenic loads and the northern ecosystem condition

    SciTech Connect

    Kryuckkov, V.V. )

    1993-11-01

    In the extreme North, the polar region of siberian Russia, the largest mining and processing enterprises for metallic and nonmetallic ores, coal, oil, and gas are situated. The extremely vulnerable boreal and polar ecosystems of the north are responding adversely to the impact of these activities, and are in danger of collapse because of them. The mechanisms of such impacts, their formation, continuous extension, and merger have been studied. The deforested and destroyed areas of former forest-tundra and taiga ecosystems resemble the Arctic zones of a much harsher environment more than the typical Arctic zones where they occur. 5 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Biological effects of extreme environmental conditions. [considering limits of biosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Imshenetskiy, A. A.

    1975-01-01

    Actions of extreme physical and chemical space factors on microorganisms and plants are elaborated in order to establish limits for the biosphere. Considered are effects of low and high temperatures; ionizing and ultraviolet radiation; various gases; and effects of vibration, desiccation and acceleration.

  10. Quantile regression in environmental health: Early life lead exposure and end-of-grade exams.

    PubMed

    Magzamen, Sheryl; Amato, Michael S; Imm, Pamela; Havlena, Jeffrey A; Coons, Marjorie J; Anderson, Henry A; Kanarek, Marty S; Moore, Colleen F

    2015-02-01

    Conditional means regression, including ordinary least squares (OLS), provides an incomplete picture of exposure-response relationships particularly if the primary interest resides in the tail ends of the distribution of the outcome. Quantile regression (QR) offers an alternative methodological approach in which the influence of independent covariates on the outcome can be specified at any location along the distribution of the outcome. We implemented QR to examine heterogeneity in the influence of early childhood lead exposure on reading and math standardized fourth grade tests. In children from two urban school districts (n=1,076), lead exposure was associated with an 18.00 point decrease (95% CI: -48.72, -3.32) at the 10th quantile of reading scores, and a 7.50 point decrease (95% CI: -15.58, 2.07) at the 90th quantile. Wald tests indicated significant heterogeneity of the coefficients across the distribution of quantiles. Math scores did not show heterogeneity of coefficients, but there was a significant difference in the lead effect at the 10th (β=-17.00, 95% CI: -32.13, -3.27) versus 90th (β=-4.50, 95% CI: -10.55, 4.50) quantiles. Our results indicate that lead exposure has a greater effect for children in the lower tail of exam scores, a result that is masked by conditional means approaches. PMID:25531815

  11. Tribological performance of ashless antiwear additives under extreme pressure conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Bohoon

    Zinc diakyl dithiophosphate (ZDDP) has been used in engine oil for several decades as an antiwear additive. However, ZDDP is the primary source of P, S and Zn in the exhaust, which results in frequent maintenance or replacement of exhaust gas treatment systems. The use of ashless additives is more desirable because of recent environmental regulations. The main goal of this research was to develop a fundamental understanding of how ashless compounds protect the tribological surface in comparison to ZDDP. X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES) has been performed on tribo and thermal films in order to investigate the chemical properties of films generated from ashless antiwear additives like chemical structure as well as chemical composition. In order to achieve this objective, three approaches were used. First, the relationships between ashless thiophosphates and wear properties under extreme pressure were examined. Ashless antiwear additives properly form their tribofilms on the sliding steel surface, reacting with iron (Fe) which is originated from the substrate. The tribofilms consist of iron phosphates, iron sulfides, and iron sulfates that have lower reduced modulus and hardness compared to tribofilms from ZDDP. However, they are still sufficiently stiff to prevent asperity contact and provide antiwear behavior. In addition, the thickness of protective tribofilms formed with ashless thiophosphates was found to be thicker than the ones formed when ZDDP was used under identical tribological conditions. Secondly, in order to understand the mechanism of tribofilm generation of metal free additives, a fundamental understanding of thermal decomposition of ashless antiwear chemistries and their influence on thermal film formation was derived. The decomposed P- and S- containing products of ZDDP reacted with the metal surface and their own metal cations forming thermal films. In case of metal free dithiophosphates, sulfur species initially formed on

  12. Principles of Quantile Regression and an Application

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Fang; Chalhoub-Deville, Micheline

    2014-01-01

    Newer statistical procedures are typically introduced to help address the limitations of those already in practice or to deal with emerging research needs. Quantile regression (QR) is introduced in this paper as a relatively new methodology, which is intended to overcome some of the limitations of least squares mean regression (LMR). QR is more…

  13. The Extreme Conditions Beamline P02.2 and the Extreme Conditions Science Infrastructure at PETRA III

    PubMed Central

    Liermann, H.-P.; Konôpková, Z.; Morgenroth, W.; Glazyrin, K.; Bednarčik, J.; McBride, E. E.; Petitgirard, S.; Delitz, J. T.; Wendt, M.; Bican, Y.; Ehnes, A.; Schwark, I.; Rothkirch, A.; Tischer, M.; Heuer, J.; Schulte-Schrepping, H.; Kracht, T.; Franz, H.

    2015-01-01

    A detailed description is presented of the Extreme Conditions Beamline P02.2 for micro X-ray diffraction studies of matter at simultaneous high pressure and high/low temperatures at PETRA III, in Hamburg, Germany. This includes performance of the X-ray optics and instrumental resolution as well as an overview of the different sample environments available for high-pressure studies in the diamond anvil cell. Particularly emphasized are the high-brilliance and high-energy X-ray diffraction capabilities of the beamline in conjunction with the use of fast area detectors to conduct time-resolved compression studies in the millisecond time regime. Finally, the current capability of the Extreme Conditions Science Infrastructure to support high-pressure research at the Extreme Conditions Beamline and other PETRA III beamlines is described. PMID:26134794

  14. Atmosphere and water loss from early Mars under extreme solar wind and extreme ultraviolet conditions.

    PubMed

    Terada, Naoki; Kulikov, Yuri N; Lammer, Helmut; Lichtenegger, Herbert I M; Tanaka, Takashi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Zhang, Tielong

    2009-01-01

    The upper limits of the ion pickup and cold ion outflow loss rates from the early martian atmosphere shortly after the Sun arrived at the Zero-Age-Main-Sequence (ZAMS) were investigated. We applied a comprehensive 3-D multi-species magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to an early martian CO(2)-rich atmosphere, which was assumed to have been exposed to a solar XUV [X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (EUV)] flux that was 100 times higher than today and a solar wind that was about 300 times denser. We also assumed the late onset of a planetary magnetic dynamo, so that Mars had no strong intrinsic magnetic field at that early period. We found that, due to such extreme solar wind-atmosphere interaction, a strong magnetic field of about approximately 4000 nT was induced in the entire dayside ionosphere, which could efficiently protect the upper atmosphere from sputtering loss. A planetary obstacle ( approximately ionopause) was formed at an altitude of about 1000 km above the surface due to the drag force and the mass loading by newly created ions in the highly extended upper atmosphere. We obtained an O(+) loss rate by the ion pickup process, which takes place above the ionopause, of about 1.5 x 10(28) ions/s during the first < or =150 million years, which is about 10(4) times greater than today and corresponds to a water loss equivalent to a global martian ocean with a depth of approximately 8 m. Consequently, even if the magnetic protection due to the expected early martian magnetic dynamo is neglected, ion pickup and sputtering were most likely not the dominant loss processes for the planet's initial atmosphere and water inventory. However, it appears that the cold ion outflow into the martian tail, due to the transfer of momentum from the solar wind to the ionospheric plasma, could have removed a global ocean with a depth of 10-70 m during the first < or =150 million years after the Sun arrived at the ZAMS. PMID:19216683

  15. Efficient quantile marginal regression for longitudinal data with dropouts.

    PubMed

    Cho, Hyunkeun; Hong, Hyokyoung Grace; Kim, Mi-Ok

    2016-07-01

    In many biomedical studies independent variables may affect the conditional distribution of the response differently in the middle as opposed to the upper or lower tail. Quantile regression evaluates diverse covariate effects on the conditional distribution of the response with quantile-specific regression coefficients. In this paper, we develop an empirical likelihood inference procedure for longitudinal data that accommodates both the within-subject correlations and informative dropouts under missing at random mechanisms. We borrow the matrix expansion idea of the quadratic inference function and incorporate the within-subject correlations under an informative working correlation structure. The proposed procedure does not assume the exact knowledge of the true correlation structure nor does it estimate the parameters of the correlation structure. Theoretical results show that the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal and more efficient than one attained under a working independence correlation structure. We expand the proposed approach to account for informative dropouts under missing at random mechanisms. The methodology is illustrated by empirical studies and a real-life example of HIV data analysis. PMID:26951723

  16. Quantile equivalence to evaluate compliance with habitat management objectives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cade, Brian S.; Johnson, Pamela R.

    2011-01-01

    Equivalence estimated with linear quantile regression was used to evaluate compliance with habitat management objectives at Arapaho National Wildlife Refuge based on monitoring data collected in upland (5,781 ha; n = 511 transects) and riparian and meadow (2,856 ha, n = 389 transects) habitats from 2005 to 2008. Quantiles were used because the management objectives specified proportions of the habitat area that needed to comply with vegetation criteria. The linear model was used to obtain estimates that were averaged across 4 y. The equivalence testing framework allowed us to interpret confidence intervals for estimated proportions with respect to intervals of vegetative criteria (equivalence regions) in either a liberal, benefit-of-doubt or conservative, fail-safe approach associated with minimizing alternative risks. Simple Boolean conditional arguments were used to combine the quantile equivalence results for individual vegetation components into a joint statement for the multivariable management objectives. For example, management objective 2A required at least 809 ha of upland habitat with a shrub composition ≥0.70 sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), 20–30% canopy cover of sagebrush ≥25 cm in height, ≥20% canopy cover of grasses, and ≥10% canopy cover of forbs on average over 4 y. Shrub composition and canopy cover of grass each were readily met on >3,000 ha under either conservative or liberal interpretations of sampling variability. However, there were only 809–1,214 ha (conservative to liberal) with ≥10% forb canopy cover and 405–1,098 ha with 20–30%canopy cover of sagebrush ≥25 cm in height. Only 91–180 ha of uplands simultaneously met criteria for all four components, primarily because canopy cover of sagebrush and forbs was inversely related when considered at the spatial scale (30 m) of a sample transect. We demonstrate how the quantile equivalence analyses also can help refine the numerical specification of habitat objectives and explore

  17. Chemistry of H2O and HF Under Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Fried, L; Goldman, N; Kuo, I W; Mundy, C

    2005-11-28

    The predicted high pressure superionic phases of water and HF are investigated via ab initio molecular dynamics. These phases could potentially be achieved through either static compression with heating or through shock compression. We study water at densities of 2.0-3.0 g/cc (34-115 GPa) along the 2000K isotherm.We find that extremely rapid (superionic) diffusion of protons occurs in a fluid phase at pressures between 34 and 58 GPa. A transition to a stable body-centered cubic (bcc) O lattice with superionic proton conductivity is observed between 70 and 75 GPa, a much higher pressure than suggested in prior work. We find that all molecular species at pressures greater than 75 GPa are too short lived to be classified as bound states. Up to 95 GPa, we find a solid superionic phase characterized by covalent O-H bonding. Above 95 GPa, a transient network phase is found characterized by symmetric O-H hydrogen bonding with nearly 50% covalent character. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of HF were conducted at densities of 1.8-4.0 g/cc along the 900 K isotherm. According to our simulations, a unique form of (symmetric) hydrogen bonding could play a significant role in superionic conduction. Our work shows that superionic phases could be more prevalent in hydrogen bonded systems than previously thought, such as HCl and HBr.

  18. Behavior of whey protein concentrates under extreme storage conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The overseas demand for whey protein concentrates (WPC) has increased steadily in recent years. Emergency aid foods often include WPC, but shelf-life studies of whey proteins under different shipment and storage conditions have not been conducted in the last 50 yr. Microbial quality, compound form...

  19. Communities that thrive in extreme conditions captured from a freshwater lake.

    PubMed

    Low-Décarie, Etienne; Fussmann, Gregor F; Dumbrell, Alex J; Bell, Graham

    2016-09-01

    Organisms that can grow in extreme conditions would be expected to be confined to extreme environments. However, we were able to capture highly productive communities of algae and bacteria capable of growing in acidic (pH 2), basic (pH 12) and saline (40 ppt) conditions from an ordinary freshwater lake. Microbial communities may thus include taxa that are highly productive in conditions that are far outside the range of conditions experienced in their host ecosystem. The organisms we captured were not obligate extremophiles, but were capable of growing in both extreme and benign conditions. The ability to grow in extreme conditions may thus be a common functional attribute in microbial communities. PMID:27601726

  20. GLOBALLY ADAPTIVE QUANTILE REGRESSION WITH ULTRA-HIGH DIMENSIONAL DATA

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Qi; Peng, Limin; He, Xuming

    2015-01-01

    Quantile regression has become a valuable tool to analyze heterogeneous covaraite-response associations that are often encountered in practice. The development of quantile regression methodology for high dimensional covariates primarily focuses on examination of model sparsity at a single or multiple quantile levels, which are typically prespecified ad hoc by the users. The resulting models may be sensitive to the specific choices of the quantile levels, leading to difficulties in interpretation and erosion of confidence in the results. In this article, we propose a new penalization framework for quantile regression in the high dimensional setting. We employ adaptive L1 penalties, and more importantly, propose a uniform selector of the tuning parameter for a set of quantile levels to avoid some of the potential problems with model selection at individual quantile levels. Our proposed approach achieves consistent shrinkage of regression quantile estimates across a continuous range of quantiles levels, enhancing the flexibility and robustness of the existing penalized quantile regression methods. Our theoretical results include the oracle rate of uniform convergence and weak convergence of the parameter estimators. We also use numerical studies to confirm our theoretical findings and illustrate the practical utility of our proposal. PMID:26604424

  1. Extreme drought to extreme floods: summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2009

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knaak, Andrew E.; Pojunas, Timothy K.; Peck, Michael F.

    2010-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Georgia Water Science Center (WSC) maintains a long-term hydrologic monitoring network of more than 317 real-time streamgages, more than 180 groundwater wells of which 31 are real-time, and 10 lake-level monitoring stations. One of the many benefits of data collected from this monitoring network is that analysis of the data provides an overview of the hydrologic conditions of rivers, creeks, reservoirs, and aquifers in Georgia.

  2. Extreme drought: summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2011

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knaak, Andrew E.; Frantz, Eric R.; Peck, Michael F.

    2013-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Georgia Water Science Center (GaWSC) maintains a long-term hydrologic monitoring network of more than 320 realtime streamgages, including 10 real-time lake-level monitoring stations and 63 realtime water-quality monitors. Additionally, the GaWSC operates more than 180 groundwater wells, 35 of which are real-time. One of the many benefits from this monitoring network is that the data analyses provide an overview of the hydrologic conditions of rivers, creeks, reservoirs, and aquifers in Georgia.

  3. Extreme drought-summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knaak, Andrew E.; Peck, Michael F.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Georgia Water Science Center (GaWSC) maintains a long-term hydrologic monitoring network of more than 330 real-time streamgages, including 10 real-time lake-level monitoring stations, 63 real-time water-quality monitors, and 48 water-quality sampling stations. Additionally, the GaWSC operates more than 180 groundwater monitoring wells, 42 of which are real-time. One of the many benefits from this monitoring network is that the data analyses provide a well distributed overview of the hydrologic conditions of creeks, rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers in Georgia.

  4. [Individual adaptation strategy under extreme environmental conditions in humans].

    PubMed

    Soroko, S I; Aldasheva, A A

    2012-01-01

    Starting from the researches of I.M. Sechenov, I.P. Pavlov, A.A. Uchtomskii, the Russian psychophysiological school considers adaptation in connection with the biological and social origin of a man as the integrated, coordinated and self-controlled human organism's reaction to maintain the vital functions in the constantly changing environmental conditions. On the base of well-known systemic-dynamic methodology and scrutinizing the issue of man and environment interaction V.I. Medvedev added to the theory of man's adaptation the activity paradigm that enable to uncover the distinctive features of professional activities in various environment conditions. The theoretical and practical investigations based on the activity methodology gave the opportunity to find out the new principles of interaction between man and environment and on the strategy of adaptive behavior. From this investigations one could see that the main characteristic of interaction "man-environment" is that man represents proactive side, man simulate different adaptation strategies using both genetically-fixed and acquired mechanisms of adaptive behavior. PMID:23393785

  5. Extreme conditions during multibubble cavitation: Sonoluminescence as a spectroscopic probe.

    PubMed

    Suslick, Kenneth S; Eddingsaas, Nathan C; Flannigan, David J; Hopkins, Stephen D; Xu, Hangxun

    2011-07-01

    We review recent work on the use of sonoluminescence (SL) to probe spectroscopically the conditions created during cavitation, both in clouds of collapsing bubbles (multibubble sonoluminescence, (MBSL)) and in single bubble events. The effective MBSL temperature can be controlled by the vapor pressure of the liquid or the thermal conductivity of the dissolved gas over a range from ∼1600 to ∼9000K. The effective pressure during MBSL is ∼300bar, based on atomic line shifts. Given nanosecond emission times, this means that cooling rates are >10(12)K/s. In sulfuric and phosphoric acid, the low volatility and high solubility of any sonolysis products make bubble collapse more efficient and evidence for an optically opaque plasma core is found. PMID:21247788

  6. Nature of the `extreme conditions` in single sonoluminescing bubbles

    SciTech Connect

    Lepoint-Mullie, F.; De Pauw, D.; Lepoint, T.; Supiot, P.; Avni, R. |

    1996-07-25

    A plasma diagnostics analysis is reported which looks at the experimental spectrum of the sonoluminescence emitted by a single argon bubble oscillating nonlinearly in an acoustic field. Under the hypothesis that the bubble is mainly filled with Ar atoms able to participate in the plasma, an order-of-magnitude estimation of the electron density (N{sub e}) associated with the intracavity medium gives N{sub e} = 10{sup 25} m{sup -3}, with an electronic temperature estimated to be about 20000 K, perhaps more. This analysis suggests that the conditions at the root of single-bubble sonoluminescence are highly energy charged and may be compatible with a sparklike process. The plasma developed inside the argon bubble is assumed to be in local thermodynamic equilibrium. 26 refs., 4 figs.

  7. TRISO-Coated Fuel Durability Under Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Reimanis, Ivar; Gorman, Brian; Butt, Darryl

    2014-03-30

    The PIs propose to examine TRISO-coated particles (SiC and ZrC coatings) in an integrated two-part study. In the first part, experiments will be performed to assess the reaction kinetics of the carbides under CO-CO2 environments at temperatures up to 1800 degree C. Kinetic model will be applied to describe the degradation. Scanning and transmission electron microscopy will be employed to establish the chemical and microstructure evolution under the imposed environmental conditions. The second part of the proposed work focuses on establishing the role of the high temperature, environmental exposure described above on the mechanical behavior of TRISO-coated particles. Electron microscopy and other advanced techniques will be subsequently performed to evaluate failure mechanisms. The work is expected to reveal relationships between corrosion reactions, starting material characteristics (polytype of SiC, impurity concentration, flaw distribution), flaw healing behavior, and crack growth.

  8. The Sphagnum microbiome supports bog ecosystem functioning under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Bragina, Anastasia; Oberauner-Wappis, Lisa; Zachow, Christin; Halwachs, Bettina; Thallinger, Gerhard G; Müller, Henry; Berg, Gabriele

    2014-09-01

    Sphagnum-dominated bogs represent a unique yet widely distributed type of terrestrial ecosystem and strongly contribute to global biosphere functioning. Sphagnum is colonized by highly diverse microbial communities, but less is known about their function. We identified a high functional diversity within the Sphagnum microbiome applying an Illumina-based metagenomic approach followed by de novo assembly and MG-RAST annotation. An interenvironmental comparison revealed that the Sphagnum microbiome harbours specific genetic features that distinguish it significantly from microbiomes of higher plants and peat soils. The differential traits especially support ecosystem functioning by a symbiotic lifestyle under poikilohydric and ombrotrophic conditions. To realise a plasticity-stability balance, we found abundant subsystems responsible to cope with oxidative and drought stresses, to exchange (mobile) genetic elements, and genes that encode for resistance to detrimental environmental factors, repair and self-controlling mechanisms. Multiple microbe-microbe and plant-microbe interactions were also found to play a crucial role as indicated by diverse genes necessary for biofilm formation, interaction via quorum sensing and nutrient exchange. A high proportion of genes involved in nitrogen cycle and recycling of organic material supported the role of bacteria for nutrient supply. 16S rDNA analysis indicated a higher structural diversity than that which had been previously detected using PCR-dependent techniques. Altogether, the diverse Sphagnum microbiome has the ability to support the life of the host plant and the entire ecosystem under changing environmental conditions. Beyond this, the moss microbiome presents a promising bio-resource for environmental biotechnology - with respect to novel enzymes or stress-protecting bacteria. PMID:25113243

  9. Quantile regression modeling for Malaysian automobile insurance premium data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuzi, Mohd Fadzli Mohd; Ismail, Noriszura; Jemain, Abd Aziz

    2015-09-01

    Quantile regression is a robust regression to outliers compared to mean regression models. Traditional mean regression models like Generalized Linear Model (GLM) are not able to capture the entire distribution of premium data. In this paper we demonstrate how a quantile regression approach can be used to model net premium data to study the effects of change in the estimates of regression parameters (rating classes) on the magnitude of response variable (pure premium). We then compare the results of quantile regression model with Gamma regression model. The results from quantile regression show that some rating classes increase as quantile increases and some decrease with decreasing quantile. Further, we found that the confidence interval of median regression (τ = O.5) is always smaller than Gamma regression in all risk factors.

  10. Materials Science under Extreme Conditions of Pressure and Strain Rate

    SciTech Connect

    Remington, B A; Bazan, G; Bringa, E; Caturla, M; Edwards, M J; Glendinning, S G; Kad, B; Kalantar, D H; Kumar, M; Lasinski, B F; Lorenz, K T; McNaney, J; Meyerhofer, D; Meyers, M A; Pollaine, S M; Reisman, D B; Rowley, D; Schneider, M; Stolken, J; Wark, J; Yaakobi, B

    2003-03-27

    Solid state dynamics experiments at very high pressures (P >> 10 GPa) and strain rates ({var_epsilon} >> 10{sup 5} s{sup -1}) have been demonstrated on high energy laser facilities, albeit over brief intervals of time and small spatial scales. We have developed two methods for driving samples to high pressures (10-100 GPa) at high strain rate (10{sup 6}-10{sup 8} s{sup -1}) in the solid state. One method uses a shockless compression technique, and the other uses multiple staged shocks. These drives are calibrated with VISAR measurements of the resulting compression wave. Deformation mechanisms are inferred under these conditions by characterizing recovered samples. Material strength at high pressures and strain rates is deduced by measuring the reduced growth of material perturbations at a hydrodynamically unstable interface. Microscopic lattice response is determined by time-resolved Bragg diffraction and x-ray absorption spectroscopy (EXAFS). Large-scale simulations, both at the continuum level using constitutive models and at the lattice level using molecular dynamics simulation, are used to interpret these integral experiments. We will review our progress in this new area of laser-based materials science research, then present a vision for carrying these solid-state experiments to much higher pressures, P > 1000 GPa, on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) laser facility.

  11. Incipient and Progressive Damage in Polyethylene Under Extreme Tensile Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Furmanski, Jevan; Brown, Eric; Trujillo, Carl P.; Martinez, Daniel Tito; Gray, George T. III

    2012-06-07

    The Dynamic-Tensile-Extrusion (Dyn-Ten-Ext) test was developed at LANL by Gray and coworkers to probe the tensile response of materials at large strains (>1) and high strain-rates (>1000/s) by firing projectiles through a conical die at 300-700 m/s. This technique has recently been applied to various polymers, such as the fluoropolymers PTFE (Teflon) and the chemically similar PCTFE, which respectively exhibited catastrophic fragmentation and distributed dynamic necking. This work details investigations of the Dyn-Ten-Ext response of high density polyethylene, both to failure and sub-critical conditions. At large extrusion ratios ({approx}7.4) and high velocities, such as those previously employed, HDPE catastrophically fragmented in a craze-like manner in the extruded jet. At more modest extrusion ratios and high velocities the specimen extruded a stable jet that ruptured cleanly, and at lower velocities was recovered intact after sustaining substantial internal damage. Thermomechanical finite element simulations showed that the damage corresponded to a locus of shear stress in the presence of hydrostatic tension. X-ray computed tomography corroborated the prediction of a shear damage mechanism by finding the region of partially damaged material to consist of macroscopic shear-mode cracks nearly aligned with the extrusion axis, originating from the location of damage inception.

  12. Ultrastructural morphologic changes in mycobacterial biofilm in different extreme condition.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Virendra; Sachan, Tarun Kumar; Sharma, Pragya; Rawat, Krishna Dutta

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the morphologic and ultrastructural features of biofilms of slow and fast-growing mycobacteria in different stress conditions, presence and absence of oleic acid albumin dextrose catalase (OADC) enrichment and at different temperatures: 30, 37 and 42 °C. Four hundred mycobacterial isolates were taken. The biomass of each biofilm was quantified using a modified microtiter plate assay method. Isolates were divided into those that formed fully established biofilms, moderately attached biofilms and weakly adherent biofilms by comparison with a known biofilm-forming strain. The large quantity of biofilm was produced by Mycobacterium smegmatis at temperature 37 and 42 °C as compared to 30 °C. Mycobacterium fortuitum and M. avium developed large amount of biofilm at 30 °C as compared to 37 and 42 °C. Mycobacterium tuberculosis developed strong biofilm at 37 °C and no biofilm at 30 and 42 °C in Sauton's media. The selected non-tuberculous mycobacteria and H37Rv developed strong biofilm in the presence of OADC enrichment in Sauton's medium. Microscopic examination of biofilms by scanning electron microscopy revealed that poorly adherent biofilm formers failed to colonize the entire surface of the microtiter well. While moderately adherent biofilm formers grew in uniform monolayers but failed to develop a mature three-dimensional structure. SEM analysis of an isolate representative of the group formed fully established biofilms with a textured, multi-layered, three-dimensional structure. PMID:25192360

  13. Improving Local and Regional Flood Quantile Estimates Using a Hierarchical Bayesian GEV Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.; Devineni, N.; Troy, T.

    2013-12-01

    Flood risk management usually relies on local and regional flood frequency analysis, which tends to suffer from lack of data and parameter uncertainties. Here we estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, which helps reduce uncertainties by pooling more information in the estimation process and provides a simple topology to propagate model and parameter uncertainties to flood quantile estimates. As prior information for the Bayesian model, it is assumed for each site that the GEV location and scale parameters come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter follows the well known log-log scaling law with the drainage area. The shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the posterior distributions. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83.000 km2 basin in southeastern Brazil. The results show a significant improvement of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with few data. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles are narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering the parameter uncertainties. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for flood frequency regional analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling

  14. The Matter in Extreme Conditions instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source.

    PubMed

    Nagler, Bob; Arnold, Brice; Bouchard, Gary; Boyce, Richard F; Boyce, Richard M; Callen, Alice; Campell, Marc; Curiel, Ruben; Galtier, Eric; Garofoli, Justin; Granados, Eduardo; Hastings, Jerry; Hays, Greg; Heimann, Philip; Lee, Richard W; Milathianaki, Despina; Plummer, Lori; Schropp, Andreas; Wallace, Alex; Welch, Marc; White, William; Xing, Zhou; Yin, Jing; Young, James; Zastrau, Ulf; Lee, Hae Ja

    2015-05-01

    The LCLS beam provides revolutionary capabilities for studying the transient behavior of matter in extreme conditions. The particular strength of the Matter in Extreme Conditions instrument is that it combines the unique LCLS beam with high-power optical laser beams, and a suite of dedicated diagnostics tailored for this field of science. In this paper an overview of the beamline, the capabilities of the instrumentation, and selected highlights of experiments and commissioning results are presented. PMID:25931063

  15. The Matter in Extreme Conditions instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    PubMed Central

    Nagler, Bob; Arnold, Brice; Bouchard, Gary; Boyce, Richard F.; Boyce, Richard M.; Callen, Alice; Campell, Marc; Curiel, Ruben; Galtier, Eric; Garofoli, Justin; Granados, Eduardo; Hastings, Jerry; Hays, Greg; Heimann, Philip; Lee, Richard W.; Milathianaki, Despina; Plummer, Lori; Schropp, Andreas; Wallace, Alex; Welch, Marc; White, William; Xing, Zhou; Yin, Jing; Young, James; Zastrau, Ulf; Lee, Hae Ja

    2015-01-01

    The LCLS beam provides revolutionary capabilities for studying the transient behavior of matter in extreme conditions. The particular strength of the Matter in Extreme Conditions instrument is that it combines the unique LCLS beam with high-power optical laser beams, and a suite of dedicated diagnostics tailored for this field of science. In this paper an overview of the beamline, the capabilities of the instrumentation, and selected highlights of experiments and commissioning results are presented. PMID:25931063

  16. The matter in extreme conditions instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Nagler, Bob; Arnold, Brice; Bouchard, Gary; Boyce, Richard F.; Boyce, Richard M.; Callen, Alice; Campell, Marc; Curiel, Ruben; Galtier, Eric; Garofoli, Justin; et al

    2015-04-21

    The LCLS beam provides revolutionary capabilities for studying the transient behavior of matter in extreme conditions. The particular strength of the Matter in Extreme Conditions instrument is that it combines the unique LCLS beam with high-power optical laser beams, and a suite of dedicated diagnostics tailored for this field of science. In this paper an overview of the beamline, the capabilities of the instrumentation, and selected highlights of experiments and commissioning results are presented.

  17. An analysis of changes in flood quantiles at the gauge Neu Darchau (Elbe River) from 1875 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mudersbach, Christoph; Bender, Jens; Netzel, Fabian

    2016-05-01

    Within this investigation, we focus on a detailed analysis of the discharge data of the gauge Neu Darchau (Elbe River). The Elbe River inflows onto the North Sea. The gauge Neu Darchau is the most downstream discharge gauge of the Elbe River before it becomes an estuary. We follow the questions, whether the discharge characteristics of the Elbe River have changed over the last decades and how much common flood quantiles (i.e. 100-year flood) are affected by the latest extreme events in 2002, 2006, 2011, and 2013. Hence, we conduct (i) trend and seasonality analysis and (ii) an assessment of time-dependencies of flood quantiles by using quasi non-stationary extreme value statistics with both block maxima and peak-over-threshold approaches. The (iii) significance of the changes found in flood quantiles are assessed by using a stochastic approach based on autoregressive models and Monte Carlo simulations. The results of the trend analyses do show no clear evidences for any significant trends in daily mean discharges and increasing flood frequencies. With respect to the extreme events in 2002, 2006, 2011, and 2013 our results reveal, that those events do not lead to extraordinary changes in the 100-year floods. Nevertheless, in the majority an increase in the 100-year floods over the recent decades can be stated. Although these changes are not significant, for many time series of the 100-year flood quantiles there is a clear tendency towards the upper confidence band.

  18. Calibrating regionally downscaled precipitation over Norway through quantile-based approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolin, David; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Guttorp, Peter; Haug, Ola; Orskaug, Elisabeth; Scheel, Ida; Wallin, Jonas

    2016-06-01

    Dynamical downscaling of earth system models is intended to produce high-resolution climate information at regional to local scales. Current models, while adequate for describing temperature distributions at relatively small scales, struggle when it comes to describing precipitation distributions. In order to better match the distribution of observed precipitation over Norway, we consider approaches to statistical adjustment of the output from a regional climate model when forced with ERA-40 reanalysis boundary conditions. As a second step, we try to correct downscalings of historical climate model runs using these transformations built from downscaled ERA-40 data. Unless such calibrations are successful, it is difficult to argue that scenario-based downscaled climate projections are realistic and useful for decision makers. We study both full quantile calibrations and several different methods that correct individual quantiles separately using random field models. Results based on cross-validation show that while a full quantile calibration is not very effective in this case, one can correct individual quantiles satisfactorily if the spatial structure in the data are accounted for. Interestingly, different methods are favoured depending on whether ERA-40 data or historical climate model runs are adjusted.

  19. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation - Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarosińska, Elżbieta; Pierzga, Katarzyna

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF) combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  20. Ensuring the consistancy of Flow Direction Curve reconstructions: the 'quantile solidarity' approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poncelet, Carine; Andreassian, Vazken; Oudin, Ludovic

    2015-04-01

    Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) are a hydrologic tool describing the distribution of streamflows at a catchment outlet. FDCs are usually used for calibration of hydrological models, managing water quality and classifying catchments, among others. For gauged catchments, empirical FDCs can be computed from streamflow records. For ungauged catchments, on the other hand, FDCs cannot be obtained from streamflow records and must therefore be obtained in another manner, for example through reconstructions. Regression-based reconstructions are methods relying on the evaluation of quantiles separately from catchments' attributes (climatic or physical features).The advantage of this category of methods is that it is informative about the processes and it is non-parametric. However, the large number of parameters required can cause unwanted artifacts, typically reconstructions that do not always produce increasing quantiles. In this paper we propose a new approach named Quantile Solidarity (QS), which is applied under strict proxy-basin test conditions (Klemes, 1986) to a set of 600 French catchments. Half of the catchments are considered as gauged and used to calibrate the regression and compute residuals of the regression. The QS approach consists in a three-step regionalization scheme, which first links quantile values to physical descriptors, then reduces the number of regression parameters and finally exploits the spatial correlation of the residuals. The innovation is the utilisation of the parameters continuity across the quantiles to dramatically reduce the number of parameters. The second half of catchment is used as an independent validation set over which we show that the QS approach ensures strictly growing FDC reconstructions in ungauged conditions. Reference: V. KLEMEŠ (1986) Operational testing of hydrological simulation models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 31:1, 13-24

  1. Modeling energy expenditure in children and adolescents using quantile regression

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Advanced mathematical models have the potential to capture the complex metabolic and physiological processes that result in energy expenditure (EE). Study objective is to apply quantile regression (QR) to predict EE and determine quantile-dependent variation in covariate effects in nonobese and obes...

  2. Hypersaline Microbial Systems of Sabkhas: Examples of Life's Survival in "Extreme" Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krumbein, Wolfgang Elisabeth; Gorbushina, Anna A.; Holtkamp-Tacken, Elisabeth

    2004-12-01

    Life and living systems need several important factors to establish themselves and to have a continued tradition. In this article the nature of the borderline situation for microbial life under heavy salt stress is analyzed and discussed using the example of biofilms and microbial mats of sabkha systems of the Red Sea. Important factors ruling such environments are described, and include the following: (1) Microbial life is better suited for survival in extremely changing and only sporadically water-supplied environments than are larger organisms (including humans). (2) Microbial life shows extremely poikilophilic adaptation patterns to conditions that deviate significantly from conditions normal for life processes on Earth today. (3) Microbial life adapts itself to such extremely changing and only ephemerally supportive conditions by the capacity of extreme changes (a) in morphology (pleomorphy), (b) in metabolic patterns (poikilotrophy), (c) in survival strategies (poikilophily), and (d) by trapping and enclosing all necessary sources of energy matter in an inwardly oriented diffusive cycle. All this is achieved without any serious attempt at escaping from the extreme and extremely changing conditions. Furthermore, these salt swamp systems are geophysiological generators of energy and material reservoirs recycled over a geological time scale. Neither energy nor material is wasted for propagation by spore formation. This capacity is summarized as poikilophilic and poikilotroph behavior of biofilm or microbial mat communities in salt and irradiationstressed environmental conditions of the sabkha or salt desert type. We use mainly cyanobacteria as an example, although other bacteria and even eukaryotic fungi may exhibit the same potential of living and surviving under conditions usually not suitable for life on Earth. It may, however, be postulated that such poikilophilic organisms are the true candidates for life support and survival under conditions never recorded

  3. Hypersaline microbial systems of sabkhas: examples of life's survival in "extreme" conditions.

    PubMed

    Krumbein, Wolfgang Elisabeth; Gorbushina, Anna A; Holtkamp-Tacken, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    Life and living systems need several important factors to establish themselves and to have a continued tradition. In this article the nature of the borderline situation for microbial life under heavy salt stress is analyzed and discussed using the example of biofilms and microbial mats of sabkha systems of the Red Sea. Important factors ruling such environments are described, and include the following: (1) Microbial life is better suited for survival in extremely changing and only sporadically water-supplied environments than are larger organisms (including humans). (2) Microbial life shows extremely poikilophilic adaptation patterns to conditions that deviate significantly from conditions normal for life processes on Earth today. (3) Microbial life adapts itself to such extremely changing and only ephemerally supportive conditions by the capacity of extreme changes (a) in morphology (pleomorphy), (b) in metabolic patterns (poikilotrophy), (c) in survival strategies (poikilophily), and (d) by trapping and enclosing all necessary sources of energy matter in an inwardly oriented diffusive cycle. All this is achieved without any serious attempt at escaping from the extreme and extremely changing conditions. Furthermore, these salt swamp systems are geophysiological generators of energy and material reservoirs recycled over a geological time scale. Neither energy nor material is wasted for propagation by spore formation. This capacity is summarized as poikilophilic and poikilotroph behavior of biofilm or microbial mat communities in salt and irradiationstressed environmental conditions of the sabkha or salt desert type. We use mainly cyanobacteria as an example, although other bacteria and even eukaryotic fungi may exhibit the same potential of living and surviving under conditions usually not suitable for life on Earth. It may, however, be postulated that such poikilophilic organisms are the true candidates for life support and survival under conditions never recorded

  4. Matching a Distribution by Matching Quantiles Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Sgouropoulos, Nikolaos; Yao, Qiwei; Yastremiz, Claudia

    2015-01-01

    Motivated by the problem of selecting representative portfolios for backtesting counterparty credit risks, we propose a matching quantiles estimation (MQE) method for matching a target distribution by that of a linear combination of a set of random variables. An iterative procedure based on the ordinary least-squares estimation (OLS) is proposed to compute MQE. MQE can be easily modified by adding a LASSO penalty term if a sparse representation is desired, or by restricting the matching within certain range of quantiles to match a part of the target distribution. The convergence of the algorithm and the asymptotic properties of the estimation, both with or without LASSO, are established. A measure and an associated statistical test are proposed to assess the goodness-of-match. The finite sample properties are illustrated by simulation. An application in selecting a counterparty representative portfolio with a real dataset is reported. The proposed MQE also finds applications in portfolio tracking, which demonstrates the usefulness of combining MQE with LASSO. PMID:26692592

  5. Resistance of Microorganisms to Extreme Environmental Conditions and Its Contribution to Astrobiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rampelotto, Pabulo Henrique

    2010-06-01

    In the last decades, substantial changes have occurred regarding what scientists consider the limits of habitable environmental conditions. For every extreme environmental condition investigated, a variety of microorganisms have shown that not only can they tolerate these conditions, but that they also often require these extreme conditions for survival. Microbes can return to life even after hundreds of millions of years. Furthermore, a variety of studies demonstrate that microorganisms can survive under extreme conditions, such as ultracentrifugation, hypervelocity, shock pressure, high temperature variations, vacuums, and different ultraviolet and ionizing radiation intensities, which simulate the conditions that microbes could experience during the ejection from one planet, the journey through space, as well as the impact in another planet. With these discoveries, our knowledge about the biosphere has grown and the putative boundaries of life have expanded. The present work examines the recent discoveries and the principal advances concerning the resistance of microorganisms to extreme environmental conditions, and analyzes its contributions to the development of the main themes of astrobiology: the origins of life, the search for extraterrestrial life, and the dispersion of life in the Universe.

  6. Influence of extreme ambient temperatures and anaerobic conditions on Peltigera aphthosa (L.) Willd. viability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyakov, M. Yu.; Insarova, I. D.; Kharabadze, D. E.; Ptushenko, V. V.; Shtaer, O. V.

    2015-11-01

    Lichen are symbiotic systems constituted by heterotrophic fungi (mycobionts) and photosynthetic microorganism (photobionts). These organisms can survive under extreme stress conditions. The aim of this work was to study the influence of low (- 70 °C) or high (+ 70 °C) temperatures, temperature fluctuations from + 70 °C to - 70 °C, and anaerobic conditions on P. aphthosa (L.) Willd. viability. None of the studied stress factors affected significantly photosynthetic and respiratory activity of the thalli. No changes in morphology or ultrastructure of the cells were revealed for both photobiont and mycobiont components after extreme temperature treatment of P. aphthosa thalli. The data show the extreme tolerance of P. aphthosa to some stress factors inherent to the space flight conditions.

  7. Influence of extreme ambient temperatures and anaerobic conditions on Peltigera aphthosa (L.) Willd. viability.

    PubMed

    Dyakov, M Yu; Insarova, I D; Kharabadze, D E; Ptushenko, V V; Shtaer, O V

    2015-11-01

    Lichen are symbiotic systems constituted by heterotrophic fungi (mycobionts) and photosynthetic microorganism (photobionts). These organisms can survive under extreme stress conditions. The aim of this work was to study the influence of low (-70 °C) or high (+70 °C) temperatures, temperature fluctuations from +70 °C to -70 °C, and anaerobic conditions on P. aphthosa (L.) Willd. viability. None of the studied stress factors affected significantly photosynthetic and respiratory activity of the thalli. No changes in morphology or ultrastructure of the cells were revealed for both photobiont and mycobiont components after extreme temperature treatment of P. aphthosa thalli. The data show the extreme tolerance of P. aphthosa to some stress factors inherent to the space flight conditions. PMID:26553640

  8. Estimation of peak discharge quantiles for selected annual exceedance probabilities in northeastern Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Over, Thomas; Saito, Riki J.; Veilleux, Andrea; Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Soong, David; Ishii, Audrey

    2016-01-01

    This report provides two sets of equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively) for watersheds in Illinois based on annual maximum peak discharge data from 117 watersheds in and near northeastern Illinois. One set of equations was developed through a temporal analysis with a two-step least squares-quantile regression technique that measures the average effect of changes in the urbanization of the watersheds used in the study. The resulting equations can be used to adjust rural peak discharge quantiles for the effect of urbanization, and in this study the equations also were used to adjust the annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to 2010 urbanization conditions.The other set of equations was developed by a spatial analysis. This analysis used generalized least-squares regression to fit the peak discharge quantiles computed from the urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to drainage-basin characteristics. The peak discharge quantiles were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm following the removal of potentially influential low floods defined by a multiple Grubbs-Beck test. To improve the quantile estimates, generalized skew coefficients were obtained from a newly developed regional skew model in which the skew increases with the urbanized land use fraction. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the spatial analysis include drainage area, the fraction of developed land, the fraction of land with poorly drained soils or likely water, and the basin slope estimated as the ratio of the basin relief to basin perimeter.This report also provides the following: (1) examples to illustrate the use of the spatial and urbanization-adjustment equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at

  9. Recent trends in heavy precipitation extremes over Germany: A thorough intercomparison between different statistical approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Reik; Passow, Christian

    2016-04-01

    comparison with GEV and GP-based approaches, quantile regression approaches thus allow for more flexibility and make full use of all available observational values, no matter if extreme or not. Due to the latter fact, trends in extreme values can be more easily assessed based on shorter time series. However, the question under which conditions and to what extent regression and extreme value theory-based approaches provide consistent results has not yet been fully explored. In this study, we provide a thorough inter-comparison between the recent trends in extreme precipitation events (assessed in terms of daily precipitation sums) from a large set of German weather stations as revealed by the classical (monthly) block maxima method with linearly time-dependent GEV parameters and linear quantile regression of the full time series. For the study period from 1951 to 2006, our main findings are as follows: (1) The spatial patterns of quantile trends for various high (>90%) percentiles and trends in the location parameter of the GEV distribution are qualitatively consistent and exhibit significant correlations, which, however, clearly deviate from an ideal correspondence. (2) In comparison with the trend parameters, the intercepts of the respective linear models for the GEV location parameter and different quantiles exhibit considerably larger mutual correlation values. (3) Quantile regression indicates more stations with strongly positive trends in extreme precipitation than the block maxima method. Moreover, the significance statements provided by the GEV statistics are more conservative than those resulting from quantile regression. Significant upward trends are generally restricted to Southern and Western Germany and are almost completely absent in the Northeastern part of the country. (4) More complex GEV models including linear trends in both location and dispersion parameter need to be considered only for a small subset of all stations (202 out of 2342). In most cases

  10. Regional flood frequency analysis using spatial proximity and basin characteristics: Quantile regression vs. parameter regression technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Palmer, Richard

    2016-09-01

    Despite wide use of regression-based regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) methods, the majority are based on either ordinary least squares (OLS) or generalized least squares (GLS). This paper proposes 'spatial proximity' based RFFA methods using the spatial lagged model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM). The proposed methods are represented by two frameworks: the quantile regression technique (QRT) and parameter regression technique (PRT). The QRT develops prediction equations for flooding quantiles in average recurrence intervals (ARIs) of 2, 5, 10, 20, and 100 years whereas the PRT provides prediction of three parameters for the selected distribution. The proposed methods are tested using data incorporating 30 basin characteristics from 237 basins in Northeastern United States. Results show that generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution properly represents flood frequencies in the study gages. Also, basin area, stream network, and precipitation seasonality are found to be the most effective explanatory variables in prediction modeling by the QRT and PRT. 'Spatial proximity' based RFFA methods provide reliable flood quantile estimates compared to simpler methods. Compared to the QRT, the PRT may be recommended due to its accuracy and computational simplicity. The results presented in this paper may serve as one possible guidepost for hydrologists interested in flood analysis at ungaged sites.

  11. Shrinkage Estimation of Varying Covariate Effects Based On Quantile Regression

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Limin; Xu, Jinfeng; Kutner, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    Varying covariate effects often manifest meaningful heterogeneity in covariate-response associations. In this paper, we adopt a quantile regression model that assumes linearity at a continuous range of quantile levels as a tool to explore such data dynamics. The consideration of potential non-constancy of covariate effects necessitates a new perspective for variable selection, which, under the assumed quantile regression model, is to retain variables that have effects on all quantiles of interest as well as those that influence only part of quantiles considered. Current work on l1-penalized quantile regression either does not concern varying covariate effects or may not produce consistent variable selection in the presence of covariates with partial effects, a practical scenario of interest. In this work, we propose a shrinkage approach by adopting a novel uniform adaptive LASSO penalty. The new approach enjoys easy implementation without requiring smoothing. Moreover, it can consistently identify the true model (uniformly across quantiles) and achieve the oracle estimation efficiency. We further extend the proposed shrinkage method to the case where responses are subject to random right censoring. Numerical studies confirm the theoretical results and support the utility of our proposals. PMID:25332515

  12. The Extreme Male Brain Theory and Gender Role Behaviour in Persons with an Autism Spectrum Condition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stauder, J. E. A.; Cornet, L. J. M.; Ponds, R. W. H. M.

    2011-01-01

    According to the Extreme Male Brain theory persons with autism possess masculinised cognitive traits. In this study masculinisation of gender role behaviour is evaluated in 25 persons with an autism spectrum condition (ASC) and matched controls with gender role behaviour as part of a shortened version of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality…

  13. Matter under extreme conditions probed by a seeded free-electron-laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bencivenga, F.; Principi, E.; Giangrisostomi, E.; Battistoni, A.; Cucini, R.; Danailov, M. B.; Demidovich, A.; Di Cicco, A.; D'Amico, F.; Di Fonzo, S.; Filipponi, A.; Gessini, A.; Gunnella, R.; Hatada, K.; Kurdi, N.; Mahne, N.; Mincigrucci, R.; Raimondi, L.; Svetina, C.; Zangrando, M.; Masciovecchio, C.

    2015-08-01

    FERMI is the first user dedicated seeded free-electron-laser (FEL) working in the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) and soft x-ray range. The EIS-TIMEX experimental end-station was availabe to external users since from the beginning of the user operation of the facility, in Dicember 2012. EIS-TIMEX has been conceived to exploit the unique properties of the FERMI source to study matter under extreme and metastable thermodynamic conditions. We hereby report on its basic parameters and applications, which includes very low jitter (i.e., high time resolution) pump-probe measurements.

  14. Matter under extreme conditions probed by a seeded free-electron-laser

    SciTech Connect

    Bencivenga, F.; Principi, E.; Cucini, R.; Danailov, M. B.; Demidovich, A.; D’Amico, F.; Di Fonzo, S.; Gessini, A.; Kurdi, N.; Mahne, N.; Raimondi, L.; Zangrando, M.; Masciovecchio, C.; Giangrisostomi, E.; Battistoni, A.; Svetina, C.; Di Cicco, A.; Gunnella, R.; Hatada, K.; Filipponi, A.; and others

    2015-08-17

    FERMI is the first user dedicated seeded free-electron-laser (FEL) working in the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) and soft x-ray range. The EIS-TIMEX experimental end-station was availabe to external users since from the beginning of the user operation of the facility, in Dicember 2012. EIS-TIMEX has been conceived to exploit the unique properties of the FERMI source to study matter under extreme and metastable thermodynamic conditions. We hereby report on its basic parameters and applications, which includes very low jitter (i.e., high time resolution) pump-probe measurements.

  15. A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabari, Hossein; AghaKouchak, Amir; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    Extreme precipitation events have attracted a great deal of attention among the scientific community because of their devastating consequences on human livelihood and socio-economic development. To assess changes in precipitation extremes in a given region, it is essential to analyze decadal oscillations in precipitation extremes. This study examines temporal oscillations in precipitation data in several sub-regions of Iran using a novel quantile perturbation method during 1980-2010. Precipitation data from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-Land (MERRA-Land) are used in this study. The results indicate significant anomalies in precipitation extremes in the northwest and southeast regions of Iran. Analysis of extreme precipitation perturbations reveals that perturbations for the monthly aggregation level are generally lower than the annual perturbations. Furthermore, high-oscillation and low-oscillation periods are found in extreme precipitation quantiles across different seasons. In all selected regions, a significant anomaly (i.e., extreme wet/dry conditions) in precipitation extremes is observed during spring.

  16. [Experimental evaluation of actoprotective activity of nitrogen-containing heterocyclic compounds derivatives in extreme conditions].

    PubMed

    Tsublova, E G; Ivanova, T G; Ivanova, T N; Iasnetsov, V V

    2013-07-01

    In experiments on nonlinear male mice the ability of new derivatives of nitrogen-containing heterocyclic compounds to increase the physical working capacity in conditions of hyperthermia, hypothermia and acute normobaric hypoxia and hypercapnia has been investigated. It is established, that pyridine derivative IBHF-11 has more expressed positive action in the said conditions. It provided increase of the working capacity of animals at all kinds of extreme influence, and the value of positive action was comparable, and in conditions of acute normobaric hypoxia and hypercapnia exceeded those at the reference products bemitil and bromantan. PMID:24341005

  17. Deterioration modeling for condition assessment of flexible pavements considering extreme weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashemi Tari, Yasamin; Shahini Shamsabadi, Salar; Birken, Ralf; Wang, Ming

    2015-04-01

    Accurate pavement management systems are essential for states' Department Of Transportation and roadway agencies to plan for cost-effective maintenance and repair (M and R) strategies. Pavement deterioration model is an imperative component of any pavement management system since the future budget and M and R plans would be developed based on the predicted pavement performance measures. It is crucial for the pavement deterioration models to consider the factors that significantly aggravate the pavement condition. While many studies have highlighted the impact of different environmental, load, and pavement's structure on the life cycle of the pavement, effect of extreme weather events such as Floods and Snow Storms have often been overlooked. In this study, a pavement deterioration model is proposed which would consider the effect of traffic loads, climate conditions, and extreme weather events. Climate, load and performance data has been compiled for over twenty years and for eight states using the Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) databases. A stepwise regression approach is undertaken to quantify the effect of the extreme weather events, along with other influential factors on pavement performance in terms of International Roughness Index (IRI). Final results rendered more than 90% correlation with the quantified impact values of extreme weather events.

  18. Prediction of physical properties of water under extremely supercritical conditions: a molecular dynamics study.

    PubMed

    Sakuma, Hiroshi; Ichiki, Masahiro; Kawamura, Katsuyuki; Fuji-ta, Kiyoshi

    2013-04-01

    The physical properties of water under a wide range of pressure and temperature conditions are important in fundamental physics, chemistry, and geoscience. Molecular simulations are useful for predicting and understanding the physical properties of water at phases extremely different from ambient conditions. In this study, we developed a new five-site flexible induced point charge model to predict the density, static dielectric constant, and transport properties of water in the extremely supercritical phase at high temperatures and pressures of up to 2000 K and 2000 MPa. The model satisfactorily reproduced the density, radial distribution function, static dielectric constant, reorientation time, and self-diffusion coefficients of water above the critical points. We also developed a database of the static dielectric constant, which is useful for discussing the electrical conductivity of aqueous fluids in the earth's crust and mantle. PMID:23574243

  19. Relationship between Urbanization and Cancer Incidence in Iran Using Quantile Regression.

    PubMed

    Momenyan, Somayeh; Sadeghifar, Majid; Sarvi, Fatemeh; Khodadost, Mahmoud; Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza; Ghaffari, Mohammad Ebrahim; Sekhavati, Eghbal

    2016-01-01

    Quantile regression is an efficient method for predicting and estimating the relationship between explanatory variables and percentile points of the response distribution, particularly for extreme percentiles of the distribution. To study the relationship between urbanization and cancer morbidity, we here applied quantile regression. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 9 cancers in 345 cities in 2007 in Iran. Data were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the relationship between urbanization and cancer morbidity was investigated using quantile regression and least square regression. Fitting models were compared using AIC criteria. R (3.0.1) software and the Quantreg package were used for statistical analysis. With the quantile regression model all percentiles for breast, colorectal, prostate, lung and pancreas cancers demonstrated increasing incidence rate with urbanization. The maximum increase for breast cancer was in the 90th percentile (β=0.13, p-value<0.001), for colorectal cancer was in the 75th percentile (β=0.048, p-value<0.001), for prostate cancer the 95th percentile (β=0.55, p-value<0.001), for lung cancer was in 95th percentile (β=0.52, p-value=0.006), for pancreas cancer was in 10th percentile (β=0.011, p-value<0.001). For gastric, esophageal and skin cancers, with increasing urbanization, the incidence rate was decreased. The maximum decrease for gastric cancer was in the 90th percentile(β=0.003, p-value<0.001), for esophageal cancer the 95th (β=0.04, p-value=0.4) and for skin cancer also the 95th (β=0.145, p-value=0.071). The AIC showed that for upper percentiles, the fitting of quantile regression was better than least square regression. According to the results of this study, the significant impact of urbanization on cancer morbidity requirs more effort and planning by policymakers and administrators in order to reduce risk factors such as pollution in urban areas and ensure proper nutrition

  20. The limits of the adaptation of life to extreme conditions (in connection with problems of exobiology)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aksenov, S. I.

    1973-01-01

    Accommodation is discussed as a universal evolutionary principle which essentially will apply to all life forms, regardless of chemical base (carbon, silicon, etc.). Life forms must either adapt to extreme conditions or perish, and for any life form an extremum factor is any significant deviation in environmental parameters. The possibility of life forms existing in specific extraterrestrial environments is discussed, and a conclusion is drawn which unequivocally states that through many forms of accommodation life is possible in many different environments.

  1. Straw Mulching Reduces the Harmful Effects of Extreme Hydrological and Temperature Conditions in Citrus Orchards

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yi; Wang, Jing; Liu, Dongbi; Li, Zhiguo; Zhang, Guoshi; Tao, Yong; Xie, Juan; Pan, Junfeng; Chen, Fang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme weather conditions with negative impacts can strongly affect agricultural production. In the Danjiangkou reservoir area, citrus yields were greatly influenced by cold weather conditions and drought stress in 2011. Soil straw mulching (SM) practices have a major effect on soil water and thermal regimes. A two-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate whether the SM practices can help achieve favorable citrus fruit yields. Results showed that the annual total runoff was significantly (P<0.05) reduced with SM as compared to the control (CK). Correspondingly, mean soil water storage in the top 100 cm of the soil profile was increased in the SM as compared to the CK treatment. However, this result was significant only in the dry season (Jan to Mar), and not in the wet season (Jul to Sep) for both years. Interestingly, the SM treatment did not significantly increase citrus fruit yield in 2010 but did so in 2011, when the citrus crop was completely destroyed (zero fruit yield) in the CK treatment plot due to extremely low temperatures during the citrus overwintering stage. The mulch probably acted as an insulator, resulting in smaller fluctuations in soil temperature in the SM than in the CK treatment. The results suggested that the small effects on soil water and temperature changes created by surface mulch had limited impact on citrus fruit yield in a normal year (e.g., in 2010). However, SM practices can positively impact citrus fruit yield in extreme weather conditions. PMID:24489844

  2. Straw mulching reduces the harmful effects of extreme hydrological and temperature conditions in citrus orchards.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yi; Wang, Jing; Liu, Dongbi; Li, Zhiguo; Zhang, Guoshi; Tao, Yong; Xie, Juan; Pan, Junfeng; Chen, Fang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme weather conditions with negative impacts can strongly affect agricultural production. In the Danjiangkou reservoir area, citrus yields were greatly influenced by cold weather conditions and drought stress in 2011. Soil straw mulching (SM) practices have a major effect on soil water and thermal regimes. A two-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate whether the SM practices can help achieve favorable citrus fruit yields. Results showed that the annual total runoff was significantly (P<0.05) reduced with SM as compared to the control (CK). Correspondingly, mean soil water storage in the top 100 cm of the soil profile was increased in the SM as compared to the CK treatment. However, this result was significant only in the dry season (Jan to Mar), and not in the wet season (Jul to Sep) for both years. Interestingly, the SM treatment did not significantly increase citrus fruit yield in 2010 but did so in 2011, when the citrus crop was completely destroyed (zero fruit yield) in the CK treatment plot due to extremely low temperatures during the citrus overwintering stage. The mulch probably acted as an insulator, resulting in smaller fluctuations in soil temperature in the SM than in the CK treatment. The results suggested that the small effects on soil water and temperature changes created by surface mulch had limited impact on citrus fruit yield in a normal year (e.g., in 2010). However, SM practices can positively impact citrus fruit yield in extreme weather conditions. PMID:24489844

  3. Realtime Monitoring of the Extreme Oceanic Conditions in the Kangjin Bay, South Sea, Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ro, Y.; Jung, K.

    2006-05-01

    Realtime(RT) monitoring system for the oceanic state variables was developed and has been operating since April, 2004 in the Kangjin Bay, South Sea, Korea shown. The RT production of data stream and display on the Internet web page are made possible in continuous functions of various system elements. Detailed technical information for the RT monitoring system can be referred to Ro et al. (2004). The water quality parameters, current and meteorological conditions are continuously monitored with very high sampling resolution (10 min.) throughout the year and are being published on the Internet web pages (http://oceaninfo.co.kr/kangjin). The research project encompass several important subjects focusing on the extreme oceanic conditions such as very cold water mass formation during the wintertime cold outbreak, highly diluted sea water during the dam water discharge in the summertime monsoon and the subsequent formation of the hypoxia in the shallow Kangjin Bay. These are the typical extreme events captured possibly by the RT monitoring system, without which could never have been observed and understood. These extreme conditions would exert dramatic ecological impact to the local aqua-culture ecology. This study would elucidate the series of physico-chemical processes and its implication of the local eco-system. To understand the complicated processes, various research tools have been employed such as numerical modeling of tidal circulation, density-driven current, water-quality and formation of hypoxia, time series analyses of various water quality properties including multi-variate correlation.

  4. Extreme conditions over Europe and North America: role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom

    2016-04-01

    The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is the result and possibly the source of marked modulations of the climate over many areas of the globe. For instance, the relatively warm and dry climate of North America throughout the 30-yr interval of 1931-60, during which the Dust Bowl and the 1950's drought occurred, has been linked to the concomitant warm phase of the AMV. During this period relative warm and wet conditions prevailed over Europe. After 1960, the Atlantic began to cool, and for almost three decades the North American climate turned wetter and cooler whereas Europe experienced cooler and dryer conditions. However, the shortness of the historical observations compared to the AMV period suggested by longer proxy (~60-80yr) does not allow to firmly conclude on the causal effect of the AMV. We use a model approach to isolate the causal role of the AMV on the occurrence of extreme events over Europe and North America. We present experiments based on two GFDL global climate models, a low resolution version, CM2.1 and a higher resolution model for the atmospheric component, FLOR. In both model experiments sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic sector are restored to the observed AMV pattern, while the other basins are left fully coupled. In order to explore and robustly isolate the AMV impacts on extreme events, we use large ensemble simulations (100 members for CM2.1 and 50 for FLOR) that we run for 20 years. We find that a positive phase of the AMV increases the frequency of occurrence of drought over North America and of extremely cold/warm conditions over Northern/Central Europe during winter/summer. Interestingly, we find that the AMV impacts on these extreme conditions are modulated by the Pacific response to the AMV itself. Members that develop a weak Pacific response show more extreme events over Europe whereas those that develop a strong Pacific response show more extreme events over North America.

  5. Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.

    2013-05-01

    Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation

  6. Modelling hydrological extremes under non-stationary conditions using climate covariates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Galiatsatou, Panagiota; Loukas, Athanasios

    2013-04-01

    Extreme value theory is a probabilistic theory that can interpret the future probabilities of occurrence of extreme events (e.g. extreme precipitation and streamflow) using past observed records. Traditionally, extreme value theory requires the assumption of temporal stationarity. This assumption implies that the historical patterns of recurrence of extreme events are static over time. However, the hydroclimatic system is nonstationary on time scales that are relevant to extreme value analysis, due to human-mediated and natural environmental change. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall and streamflow timeseries at selected meteorological and hydrometric stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters (location, scale, and shape) are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon (2010). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for the selected meteorological and hydrometric stations is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. For all case studies in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and nonstationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and non-linear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal

  7. Estimating risks to aquatic life using quantile regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmidt, Travis S.; Clements, William H.; Cade, Brian S.

    2012-01-01

    One of the primary goals of biological assessment is to assess whether contaminants or other stressors limit the ecological potential of running waters. It is important to interpret responses to contaminants relative to other environmental factors, but necessity or convenience limit quantification of all factors that influence ecological potential. In these situations, the concept of limiting factors is useful for data interpretation. We used quantile regression to measure risks to aquatic life exposed to metals by including all regression quantiles (τ  =  0.05–0.95, by increments of 0.05), not just the upper limit of density (e.g., 90th quantile). We measured population densities (individuals/0.1 m2) of 2 mayflies (Rhithrogena spp., Drunella spp.) and a caddisfly (Arctopsyche grandis), aqueous metal mixtures (Cd, Cu, Zn), and other limiting factors (basin area, site elevation, discharge, temperature) at 125 streams in Colorado. We used a model selection procedure to test which factor was most limiting to density. Arctopsyche grandis was limited by other factors, whereas metals limited most quantiles of density for the 2 mayflies. Metals reduced mayfly densities most at sites where other factors were not limiting. Where other factors were limiting, low mayfly densities were observed despite metal concentrations. Metals affected mayfly densities most at quantiles above the mean and not just at the upper limit of density. Risk models developed from quantile regression showed that mayfly densities observed at background metal concentrations are improbable when metal mixtures are at US Environmental Protection Agency criterion continuous concentrations. We conclude that metals limit potential density, not realized average density. The most obvious effects on mayfly populations were at upper quantiles and not mean density. Therefore, we suggest that policy developed from mean-based measures of effects may not be as useful as policy based on the concept of

  8. Calcification of a common Caribbean coral under extreme conditions of natural acidification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crook, E. D.; Cohen, A. L.; Hernandez-Terrones, L.; Rebolledo-Vieyra, M.; Paytan, A.

    2011-12-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are currently threatened by anthropogenic loading of CO2 to the atmosphere and global surface oceans. Model predictions and laboratory experiments indicate that as the pH of the oceans drops, the ability of calcifying corals to build their carbonate skeletons will be significantly reduced. Here, we investigate coral calcification under extreme conditions of natural ocean acidification in a reef lagoon at Puerto Morelos, Mexico. The lagoon experiences highly localized drops in pH (6.8 to 7.6) and its close proximity to organisms living under ambient conditions provides a unique opportunity to study the impacts of ocean acidification on calcification. 3D CT scanning and image analysis were used to precisely measure the linear extension, density, and calcification of 14 Porites astreoides cores. Importantly, corals are still able to calcify under extreme (undersaturated) conditions, and normal rates of linear extension are maintained. However, the total amount of calcium carbonate produced by the corals declines with decreasing aragonite saturation state. Thus, while linear extension does not significantly vary, skeletal density declines by approximately 34%, resulting in an approximate calcification decrease of 38%. As a result, skeletons accreted under acidic conditions are fragile and more prone to breakage and boring by sponges and bivalve mollusks. We address the importance of these implications for the integrity of coral colonies and reefs as a whole.

  9. High dimensional data analysis using multivariate generalized spatial quantiles

    PubMed Central

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D.; Chatterjee, Snigdhansu

    2015-01-01

    High dimensional data routinely arises in image analysis, genetic experiments, network analysis, and various other research areas. Many such datasets do not correspond to well-studied probability distributions, and in several applications the data-cloud prominently displays non-symmetric and non-convex shape features. We propose using spatial quantiles and their generalizations, in particular, the projection quantile, for describing, analyzing and conducting inference with multivariate data. Minimal assumptions are made about the nature and shape characteristics of the underlying probability distribution, and we do not require the sample size to be as high as the data-dimension. We present theoretical properties of the generalized spatial quantiles, and an algorithm to compute them quickly. Our quantiles may be used to obtain multidimensional confidence or credible regions that are not required to conform to a pre-determined shape. We also propose a new notion of multidimensional order statistics, which may be used to obtain multidimensional outliers. Many of the features revealed using a generalized spatial quantile-based analysis would be missed if the data was shoehorned into a well-known probabilistic configuration. PMID:26617421

  10. Preparation of monolithic silica-chitin composite under extreme biomimetic conditions.

    PubMed

    Bazhenov, Vasilii V; Wysokowski, Marcin; Petrenko, Iaroslav; Stawski, Dawid; Sapozhnikov, Philipp; Born, René; Stelling, Allison L; Kaiser, Sabine; Jesionowski, Teofil

    2015-05-01

    Chitin is a widespread renewable biopolymer that is extensively distributed in the natural world. The high thermal stability of chitin provides an opportunity to develop novel inorganic-organic composites under hydrothermal synthesis conditions in vitro. For the first time, in this work we prepared monolithic silica-chitin composite under extreme biomimetic conditions (80°C and pH 1.5) using three dimensional chitinous matrices isolated from the marine sponge Aplysina cauliformis. The resulting material was studied using light and fluorescence microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. A mechanism for the silica-chitin interaction after exposure to these hydrothermal conditions is proposed and discussed. PMID:25701776

  11. 21st century increases in the likelihood of extreme hydrologic conditions for the mountainous basins of the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, Iris T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Carrillo, Carlos A.; McIntosh, Russell

    2015-10-01

    Extreme hydrologic conditions, such as floods, droughts, and elevated stream temperatures, significantly impact the societal fabric and ecosystems, and there is rising concern about increases in the frequency of extreme conditions with projected climate changes. Here we ask what changes in the occurrence of extreme hydrologic conditions can be expected by the end of the century for the important water-generating, mountainous basins of the Southwestern United States, namely the Sierra Nevada and Upper Colorado River Basins. The extreme conditions considered are very high flows, low flows, and elevated stream temperature as derived from historic and future simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model and downscaled output from a General Circulation Model ensemble. Results indicate noteworthy differences in the frequency changes of extremes based on geographic region, season, elevation, and stream size. We found wide-spread increases in the occurrence of stream flows exceeding 150% of historic monthly averages for winter by the end of the century, and extensive increases in the occurrence of both extreme low flows (representing <50% of historic monthly averages), and elevated stream temperatures (>3 °C of monthly averages) during the summer months, with some basins expecting extreme conditions 90-100% of the time by the end of the century. Understanding the differences in the changes of extreme conditions can identify climate-sensitive regions and assist in targeted planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation.

  12. Isolation and Characterization of Bacteria Capable of Tolerating the Extreme Conditions of Clean Room Environments▿

    PubMed Central

    La Duc, Myron T.; Dekas, Anne; Osman, Shariff; Moissl, Christine; Newcombe, David; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri

    2007-01-01

    In assessing the bacterial populations present in spacecraft assembly, spacecraft test, and launch preparation facilities, extremophilic bacteria (requiring severe conditions for growth) and extremotolerant bacteria (tolerant to extreme conditions) were isolated. Several cultivation approaches were employed to select for and identify bacteria that not only survive the nutrient-limiting conditions of clean room environments but can also withstand even more inhospitable environmental stresses. Due to their proximity to spacefaring objects, these bacteria pose a considerable risk for forward contamination of extraterrestrial sites. Samples collected from four geographically distinct National Aeronautics and Space Administration clean rooms were challenged with UV-C irradiation, 5% hydrogen peroxide, heat shock, pH extremes (pH 3.0 and 11.0), temperature extremes (4°C to 65°C), and hypersalinity (25% NaCl) prior to and/or during cultivation as a means of selecting for extremotolerant bacteria. Culture-independent approaches were employed to measure viable microbial (ATP-based) and total bacterial (quantitative PCR-based) burdens. Intracellular ATP concentrations suggested a viable microbial presence ranging from below detection limits to 106 cells/m2. However, only 0.1 to 55% of these viable cells were able to grow on defined culture medium. Isolated members of the Bacillaceae family were more physiologically diverse than those reported in previous studies, including thermophiles (Geobacillus), obligate anaerobes (Paenibacillus), and halotolerant, alkalophilic species (Oceanobacillus and Exiguobacterium). Non-spore-forming microbes (α- and β-proteobacteria and actinobacteria) exhibiting tolerance to the selected stresses were also encountered. The multiassay cultivation approach employed herein enhances the current understanding of the physiological diversity of bacteria housed in these clean rooms and leads us to ponder the origin and means of translocation of

  13. Isolation and characterization of bacteria capable of tolerating the extreme conditions of clean room environments.

    PubMed

    La Duc, Myron T; Dekas, Anne; Osman, Shariff; Moissl, Christine; Newcombe, David; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri

    2007-04-01

    In assessing the bacterial populations present in spacecraft assembly, spacecraft test, and launch preparation facilities, extremophilic bacteria (requiring severe conditions for growth) and extremotolerant bacteria (tolerant to extreme conditions) were isolated. Several cultivation approaches were employed to select for and identify bacteria that not only survive the nutrient-limiting conditions of clean room environments but can also withstand even more inhospitable environmental stresses. Due to their proximity to spacefaring objects, these bacteria pose a considerable risk for forward contamination of extraterrestrial sites. Samples collected from four geographically distinct National Aeronautics and Space Administration clean rooms were challenged with UV-C irradiation, 5% hydrogen peroxide, heat shock, pH extremes (pH 3.0 and 11.0), temperature extremes (4 degrees C to 65 degrees C), and hypersalinity (25% NaCl) prior to and/or during cultivation as a means of selecting for extremotolerant bacteria. Culture-independent approaches were employed to measure viable microbial (ATP-based) and total bacterial (quantitative PCR-based) burdens. Intracellular ATP concentrations suggested a viable microbial presence ranging from below detection limits to 10(6) cells/m(2). However, only 0.1 to 55% of these viable cells were able to grow on defined culture medium. Isolated members of the Bacillaceae family were more physiologically diverse than those reported in previous studies, including thermophiles (Geobacillus), obligate anaerobes (Paenibacillus), and halotolerant, alkalophilic species (Oceanobacillus and Exiguobacterium). Non-spore-forming microbes (alpha- and beta-proteobacteria and actinobacteria) exhibiting tolerance to the selected stresses were also encountered. The multiassay cultivation approach employed herein enhances the current understanding of the physiological diversity of bacteria housed in these clean rooms and leads us to ponder the origin and means

  14. Necessary and sufficient conditions for big bangs, bounces, crunches, rips, sudden singularities and extremality events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cattoën, Céline; Visser, Matt

    2005-12-01

    Until recently, the physically relevant singularities occurring in FRW cosmologies had traditionally been thought to be limited to the 'big bang', and possibly a 'big crunch'. However, over the last few years, the zoo of cosmological singularities considered in the literature has become considerably more extensive, with 'big rips' and 'sudden singularities' added to the mix, as well as renewed interest in nonsingular cosmological events such as 'bounces' and 'turnarounds'. In this paper we present an extensive catalogue of such cosmological milestones, both at the kinematical and dynamical level. First, using generalized power series, purely kinematical definitions of these cosmological events are provided in terms of the behaviour of the scale factor a(t). The notion of a 'scale-factor singularity' is defined, and its relation to curvature singularities (polynomial and differential) is explored. Second, dynamical information is extracted by using the Friedmann equations (without assuming even the existence of any equation of state) to place constraints on whether or not the classical energy conditions are satisfied at the cosmological milestones. We use these considerations to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of cosmological milestones such as bangs, bounces, crunches, rips, sudden singularities and extremality events. Since the classification is extremely general and, modulo certain technical assumptions, is complete, the corresponding results are to a high degree model independent: in particular, we provide a characterization of the class of bangs, crunches and sudden singularities for which the dominant energy condition is satisfied.

  15. Combined Micro-chemical and Micro-structural Analysis of New Minerals Representing Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, C.; Tschauner, O. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recent improvements in micro-chemical analysis in combination with novel tools for micrometer-scale structural analysis of minerals from synchrotron X-ray diffraction open a pathway towards studies of mineral paragenesis that were previously not or barely accessible. Often mineral assemblies that represent extreme conditions also pose extreme challenges to analysis: very small size scale, complex matrix, minor amounts of material. Examples of such extreme, but also quite relevant environments are: a) High pressure shock-metamorphic minerals in meteorites and terrestrial impact sites, b) inclusions in diamonds from the deep mantle, c) ultrarefractory phases in Ca-Al-inlcusions from the solar nebula, d) presolar condensates. We show how a combination of synchrotron-based structural and semi-quantitative chemical techniques, with electron-microscopy based high-resolution imaging and fully quantitative chemical analysis and qualitative structural identification establish a powerful tool for discovery and characterization of important and interesting new minerals on micron- to submicron size scale.

  16. Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China’s coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40–62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China’s entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters. PMID:26313256

  17. Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China.

    PubMed

    Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China's coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40-62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China's entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters. PMID:26313256

  18. [Effect of extreme conditions on seasonal patterns of endocrine and metabolic processes].

    PubMed

    Barabash, L V; Levitskiĭ, E F; Khon, V B; Zaĭtsev, A A

    2009-01-01

    The study was designed to clarify seasonal patterns of endocrine and metabolic processes and their changes under extreme conditions in Special Police Force servicemen. Hormonal status, lipid spectra, activity of lipid peroxidation and nonspecific protection systems were assessed during transition seasons. It was shown that the stay in a local armed conflict zone had marked effect on the structure of adaptive reactions. Hormonal dysregulation and impaired efficiency of protective systems were most pronounced during the autumn/winter season. Disturbed endocrine regulation in winter/spring resulted in undesirable changes of lipid metabolism and increased load on the protective function mediated through bioactive radicals. PMID:19705792

  19. [On the treatment of gunshot wounds of extremities in the conditions of local military actions].

    PubMed

    Agakhanian, N V; Ter-Avetikian, Z A; Mkrtchian, M E; Amirian, E G

    2009-04-01

    Together with the improvement of new types of weapons with more destroying effect, the treatment methods of gunshot wounds including laser therapy, extrafocal osteosynthesis, new antibacterial means are also developing. The application of these methods makes it possible to create optimal conditions for the treatment of different types of injuries of extremities with positive results in 88% cases. These results were received due to early and thorough first surgical processing of wounds by wide usage of helium-neon laser radiation as well as with the help of traumatologists who are the skilled in the new treatment methods including the extrafocal compressional osteosynthesis. PMID:19430037

  20. Comparative Analysis of Stormtime Ring Currents Under Extreme Solar Wind Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozyra, J. U.; Liemohn, M. W.; Thomsen, M. F.; Borovsky, J. E.; Hairston, M. R.; Ridley, A. J.

    2001-12-01

    Several recent magnetic superstorms (6 April 2000, 15 July 2000 and 31 March 2001) are numerically and observationally analyzed to understand the response of the ring current to extreme values of southward IMF Bz. Simulations of these events were carried out using the Michigan ring current drift-loss model (RAM) driven by dynamical fluxes at the nightside outer boundary based on observations. Plasma sheet distributions measured by satellites were used to specify the ring current source population and its variation during the events. Plasma sheet densities were elevated for all three events but reached their most extreme value (near 10 cm-3) during the March 2001 superstorm which also had the largest ěrtminimum Dst*ěrt. Convection electric fields within the inner magnetosphere were specified based on the McIlwain (1986) model scaled by the polar-cap potential (PCP) derived from DMSP observations. Shielding in the McIlwain model was parametrized based on the DMSP auroral boundary index (MBI). Maximum values of the DMSP PCP were < 250 kV for July 2000 and March 2001 compared to peak values near 600 kV predicted by linear parametrizations based on more moderate storms. It is clear that the relationship between the PCP and solar wind Ey changes dramatically during extreme events and this will have a major impact on ring current energization. We examine the relationship between convection strength (polar cap potential), ion source intensity (near-Earth plasma sheet flux), and ion source composition (H+ versus O+) to understand ring current dynamics and evolution during each of these events. Finally, we compare the differences and similarities in the magnetospheric responses to the three selected intervals of extreme solar wind conditions.

  1. Dynamic damage evolution in aluminum as a model system for understanding FCC materials in extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, Nathaniel Jonathon

    Materials play a key role in many emerging technologies. Future technologies in the energy and defense sectors will place huge demands on material performance with respect to stress, strain, temperature, and pressure. These applications require that the response of materials on dynamic (microsecond) time scales be predictable and controllable. Hence, the goal of this research project was to study the extreme environment of shock loaded damage evolution in aluminum as a model system for understanding dynamic response of FCC metals in these environments. Phase one utilized plate impact experiments to study the influence of spatial effects (in the form of microstructural defect distributions) on the dynamic damage evolution process. Samples were soft recovered for shot analysis and comparison to real time laser velocimetry. Results revealed that the length scale of defects controls the failure mechanisms of the microstructure; suggesting defect density and the spatial distribution of defects are critical factors in the deformation process in extreme environments. Phase two studied the influence of kinetic effects (in the form of dynamic tensile loading rate) to reveal time dependence on the dynamic deformation process. Results concluded damage nucleation and growth rates are highly time dependent and can be overdriven as higher tensile loading rates result in extremely short time durations. It was shown that laser velocimetry provides an adequate means for understanding the dynamic damage evolution process when soft recovery of the sample is unavailable. This was shown by comparing laser velocimetry results with data obtained from optical analysis on recovered specimens. The methodology here provides a means to systematically study materials of interest in extreme conditions and provides a pathway for obtaining the relevant physics needed for model development leading to a predictive capability.

  2. Spatiotemporal patterns and trends of Indian monsoonal rainfall extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malik, Nishant; Bookhagen, Bodo; Mucha, Peter J.

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of trends in the extremes during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) months (June to September) at different temporal and spatial scales. Our goal is to identify and quantify spatiotemporal patterns and trends that have emerged during the recent decades and may be associated with changing climatic conditions. Our analysis primarily relies on quantile regression that avoids making any subjective choices on spatial, temporal, or intensity pattern of extreme rainfall events. Our analysis divides the Indian monsoon region into climatic compartments that show different and partly opposing trends. These include strong trends toward intensified droughts in Northwest India, parts of Peninsular India, and Myanmar; in contrast, parts of Pakistan, Northwest Himalaya, and Central India show increased extreme daily rain intensity leading to higher flood vulnerability. Our analysis helps explain previously contradicting results of trends in average ISM rainfall.

  3. Effect of extreme conditions of Antarctica on human leukocyte antigen-G in Indian expeditioners

    PubMed Central

    Mishra, K.P.; Yadav, A.P.; Sharma, Y.K.; Ganju, Lilly; Singh, S.B.

    2014-01-01

    Background & objectives: Immune activation and inflammation play critical roles in the stressful environmental conditions like high altitude, extreme cold, etc. Human leukocyte antigen-G (HLA-G) is a non classical major histocompatiblity complex class I (MHC class- I) protein, upregulated in the context of transplantation, malignancy and inflammation. We hypothesized serum HLA-G as a possible stress biomarker and studied levels of soluble form of HLA-G (sHLA-G) in Indian Antarctic expeditioners. Methods: sHLA-G ELISA was performed in the serum of summer (n=27) and winter (n=22) Indian Antarctic expeditioners. The summer expeditioners were evaluated at three different time points, i.e. before leaving India, after one month ship borne journey, and after staying one month at Indian research base, Maitri in Antarctica, while winter expeditioners were evaluated at five different time points, i.e. before leaving India, and in the month of March, May, August and November at Antarctica. Results: One month ship borne journey did not cause any significant change in the sHLA-G level as compared to the baseline level of the summer expeditioners. sHLA-G levels were not changed significantly in the months of March, May, August and November as compared to the baseline level of the winter expeditioners. Interpretation & conclusions: Our results indicated that the extreme conditions of Antarctica did not cause any significant change in the sHLA-G level in both summer and winter expeditioners. PMID:25488446

  4. Study on extreme turbulence wind conditions of multibody dynamics simulation for MW-class wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, P.; Li, C.; Ye, Z.

    2013-12-01

    Parametric modeling of NREL 5MW wind turbine was set up for multi-body dynamics simulation by the TurbSim, AeroDyn, FAST (fatigue, aerodynamics, structures, and turbulence) software respectively. According to the analysis of the characteristics of wind in the space discrete point, using TurbSim to establish the steady-state wind and random changes with time and space wind. Based on the AeroDyn software, which can coupled to FAST, we calculated the aerodynamic load. Loading the aerodynamic data which has been calculated, FAST can establish a fully parameterized simulation model. Making a comparison of the results obtained by FAST in 3 different wind conditions, the different of dynamic responses of the structure were obtained. The results obtained by FAST have some meaning in the study of wind turbine under extreme turbulence wind conditions.

  5. Fitness to work of astronauts in conditions of action of the extreme emotional factors.

    PubMed

    Prisniakova, L M

    2004-01-01

    The theoretical model for the quantitative determination of influence of a level of emotional exertion on the success of human activity is presented. The learning curves of fixed words in the groups with a different level of the emotional exertion are analyzed. The obtained magnitudes of time constant T depending on a type of the emotional exertion are a quantitative measure of the emotional exertion. Time constants could also be of use for a prediction of the characteristic of fitness to work of an astronaut in conditions of extreme factors. The inverse of the sign of influencing on efficiency of activity of the man is detected. The paper offers a mathematical model of the relation between successful activity and motivations or the emotional exertion (Yerkes-Dodson law). Proposed models can serve by the theoretical basis of the quantitative characteristics of an estimation of activity of astronauts in conditions of the emotional factors at a phase of their selection. PMID:15803632

  6. Concrete Condition Assessment Using Impact-Echo Method and Extreme Learning Machines

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jing-Kui; Yan, Weizhong; Cui, De-Mi

    2016-01-01

    The impact-echo (IE) method is a popular non-destructive testing (NDT) technique widely used for measuring the thickness of plate-like structures and for detecting certain defects inside concrete elements or structures. However, the IE method is not effective for full condition assessment (i.e., defect detection, defect diagnosis, defect sizing and location), because the simple frequency spectrum analysis involved in the existing IE method is not sufficient to capture the IE signal patterns associated with different conditions. In this paper, we attempt to enhance the IE technique and enable it for full condition assessment of concrete elements by introducing advanced machine learning techniques for performing comprehensive analysis and pattern recognition of IE signals. Specifically, we use wavelet decomposition for extracting signatures or features out of the raw IE signals and apply extreme learning machine, one of the recently developed machine learning techniques, as classification models for full condition assessment. To validate the capabilities of the proposed method, we build a number of specimens with various types, sizes, and locations of defects and perform IE testing on these specimens in a lab environment. Based on analysis of the collected IE signals using the proposed machine learning based IE method, we demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in performing full condition assessment of concrete elements or structures. PMID:27023563

  7. Concrete Condition Assessment Using Impact-Echo Method and Extreme Learning Machines.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jing-Kui; Yan, Weizhong; Cui, De-Mi

    2016-01-01

    The impact-echo (IE) method is a popular non-destructive testing (NDT) technique widely used for measuring the thickness of plate-like structures and for detecting certain defects inside concrete elements or structures. However, the IE method is not effective for full condition assessment (i.e., defect detection, defect diagnosis, defect sizing and location), because the simple frequency spectrum analysis involved in the existing IE method is not sufficient to capture the IE signal patterns associated with different conditions. In this paper, we attempt to enhance the IE technique and enable it for full condition assessment of concrete elements by introducing advanced machine learning techniques for performing comprehensive analysis and pattern recognition of IE signals. Specifically, we use wavelet decomposition for extracting signatures or features out of the raw IE signals and apply extreme learning machine, one of the recently developed machine learning techniques, as classification models for full condition assessment. To validate the capabilities of the proposed method, we build a number of specimens with various types, sizes, and locations of defects and perform IE testing on these specimens in a lab environment. Based on analysis of the collected IE signals using the proposed machine learning based IE method, we demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in performing full condition assessment of concrete elements or structures. PMID:27023563

  8. Impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological conditions on ecosystem functioning and productivity patterns across Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huete, Alfredo; Ma, Xuanlong; Xie, Zunyi; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    As Earth's climate continues to change, the frequency and intensity of warm droughts, extreme precipitation patterns, and heat waves will alter in potentially different ways, ecosystem structure and functioning with major impacts on carbon and water balance, and food security. The extreme hydro-meteorological conditions that are presently impacting Australia approach those anticipated with future climate change and thus provide unique opportunities to study ecological sensitivity and functional responses and cross-biome productivity changes using contemporary, in-situ and satellite observational datasets. Here, we combined satellite vegetation index products from MODIS and AVHRR, total water storage (TWS) from the GRACE twin satellites, precipitation data and in-situ tower flux measurements to characterise ecosystem sensitivity, and analyse climate change impacts on ecosystem productivity and resilience. Recent advances in eddy covariance tower flux measurements and spatially contiguous remote sensing data provide innovative and promising capabilities to extend ecosystem functioning and productivity studies from local to regional and continental scales. In general, Australia exhibited ecosystem-level shifts in water demands with water availability across wet and dry years, and over all biomes analysed (arid grasslands to humid forests). In the drier years, higher ecosystem water use efficiencies (WUEe) enabled plants to maintain higher levels of productivity than would otherwise be expected for the lower amounts of rainfall and available water. Further, there were unique, functional class-specific coping strategies to drought and water availability. With prolonged warm drought conditions, biomes became increasingly water-limited and WUEe continued to increase until reaching a 'dry edge' threshold, a cross biome maximum WUEe, that cannot be sustained with further reductions in water availability and could potentially break down ecosystem resilience and induce

  9. The National Ignition Facility: an experimental platform for studying behavior of matter under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moses, Edward

    2011-11-01

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF), a 192-beam Nd-glass laser facility capable of producing 1.8 MJ and 500 TW of ultraviolet light, is now operational at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). As the world's largest and most energetic laser system, NIF serves as the national center for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Nuclear Security Administration to achieve thermonuclear burn in the laboratory and to explore the behavior of matter at extreme temperatures and energy densities. By concentrating the energy from all of its 192 extremely energetic laser beams into a mm3-sized target, NIF can reach the conditions required to initiate fusion reactions. NIF can also provide access to extreme scientific environments: temperatures about 100 million K, densities of 1,000 g/cm3, and pressures 100 billion times atmospheric pressure. These conditions have never been created before in a laboratory and exist naturally only in interiors of the planetary and stellar environments as well as in nuclear weapons. Since August 2009, the NIF team has been conducting experiments in support of the National Ignition Campaign (NIC)—a partnership among LLNL, Los Alamos National Laboratory, General Atomics, the University of Rochester, Sandia National Laboratories, as well as a number of universities and international collaborators. The results from these initial experiments show promise for the relatively near-term achievement of ignition. Capsule implosion experiments at energies up to 1.2 MJ have demonstrated laser energetics, radiation temperatures, and symmetry control that scale to ignition conditions. Of particular importance is the demonstration of peak hohlraum temperatures near 300 eV with overall backscatter less than 10%. Cryogenic target capability and additional diagnostics are being installed in preparation for layered target deuterium-tritium implosions to be conducted later in 2010. Important national security and basic science experiments have

  10. Behavior of the ionosphere and thermosphere subject to extreme solar cycle conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smithtro, C. G.; Sojka, J. J.

    2005-08-01

    A 1-D global average ionosphere and thermosphere (GAIT) model is used to examine the climatological behavior of the upper atmosphere, subject to both extremely low and high solar flux. These extremes are justified, in part, by the Maunder Minimum and Grand Maximum epochs described by J. A. Eddy, as well as other studies involving cosmogenic isotopes and Sun-like stars. As the irradiance falls below normal solar minimum levels, the concentration of O+ decreases rapidly relative to the molecular ions, such that the ratio foF2/foF1 approaches unity. When subject to exceptionally high solar fluxes, the ionospheric peak electron density (NmF2) unexpectedly plateaus, remaining relatively constant even as the photon flux continues to increase. In both cases, the state of the underlying thermosphere, particularly the neutral gas temperature, is found to be largely responsible. Model trends are discussed in relation to ionospheric observations, specifically the preponderance of so-called ionospheric G conditions at solar minimum and foF2 saturation at solar maximum, as well as the problem of Earth's global helium budget.

  11. Assessing the Land-Ocean Interaction under Extreme Climate Change Condition - a Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, T.; Leung, R.; Balaguru, K.; Hibbard, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    Many modeling applications, at global and regional scales, have demonstrated that numerical models are useful tools to quantify the uncertainty and the interactions between natural physical and biogeochemical processes and human activities in coastal regions. A regional integrated assessment modeling framework to investigate the interactions of agriculture and land use, coastal ecological issues, energy supply and effects of climate changes is under development by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with specific application to the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is vulnerable to the direct impacts of climate changes, such as sea level rise, hurricane-induced storm surge and extreme floods due to high precipitation and river run-off. This presentation will focus on the coastal modeling aspect of this integrated modeling approach. An unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model, which has the capability of simulating coastal circulation, wave and storm surges, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes, is applied to simulate hurricane storm surges and extreme flood events in the coastal region of Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, storm surge along the US Southeast coasts and freshwater plume in the Mississippi Delta were simulated and compared to observations. Numerical sensitivity studies with boundary conditions and forcing indicated the urgent need of a real observation network as well as the importance of accurate model predictions at regional scales to drive the model at smaller scales. The implication of natural pressures, such as storm surge and flooding to biogeochemical processes and marine ecosystem will be discussed.

  12. The Proteome of a Healthy Human during Physical Activity under Extreme Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Larina, I. M.; Ivanisenko, V. A.; Nikolaev, E. N.; Grigorev, A. I.

    2014-01-01

    The review examines the new approaches in modern systems biology, in terms of their use for a deeper understanding of the physiological adaptation of a healthy human in extreme environments. Human physiology under extreme conditions of life, or environmental physiology, and systems biology are natural partners. The similarities and differences between the object and methods in systems biology, the OMICs (proteomics, transcriptomics, metabolomics) disciplines, and other related sciences have been studied. The latest data on environmental human physiology obtained using systems biology methods are discussed. The independent achievements of systems biology in studying the adaptation of a healthy human to physical activity, including human presence at high altitude, to the effects of hypoxia and oxidative stress have been noted. A reasonable conclusion is drawn that the application of the methods and approaches used in systems biology to study the molecular pattern of the adaptive mechanisms that develop in the human body during space flight can provide valuable fundamental knowledge and fill the picture of human metabolic pathways. PMID:25349715

  13. Quantile Regression in the Study of Developmental Sciences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petscher, Yaacov; Logan, Jessica A. R.

    2014-01-01

    Linear regression analysis is one of the most common techniques applied in developmental research, but only allows for an estimate of the average relations between the predictor(s) and the outcome. This study describes quantile regression, which provides estimates of the relations between the predictor(s) and outcome, but across multiple points of…

  14. Goodness of Fit and Misspecification in Quantile Regressions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Furno, Marilena

    2011-01-01

    The article considers a test of specification for quantile regressions. The test relies on the increase of the objective function and the worsening of the fit when unnecessary constraints are imposed. It compares the objective functions of restricted and unrestricted models and, in its different formulations, it verifies (a) forecast ability, (b)…

  15. Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mbugua, L. N.; Mwita, P. N.

    2013-02-01

    Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

  16. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Herrera, R.; Díaz, J.; Trigo, R. M.; Hernández, E.

    2005-02-01

    This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the

  17. Extreme weather conditions reduce the CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obermeier, Wolfgang; Lehnert, Lukas; Kammann, Claudia; Müller, Christoph; Grünhage, Ludger; Luterbacher, Jürg; Erbs, Martin; Yuan, Naiming; Bendix, Jörg

    2016-04-01

    The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of global climate change. The rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations may stimulate plant photosynthesis and, thus, cause a net sink effect in the global carbon cycle. As a consequence of an enhanced photosynthesis, an increase in the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants (termed CO2 fertilization) is widely assumed. This process is associated with a reduced stomatal conductance of leaves as the carbon demand of photosynthesis is met earlier. This causes a higher water-use efficiency and, hence, may reduce water stress in plants exposed to elevated CO2 concentrations ([eCO2]). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CO2 fertilization effect under a future climate including more frequent weather extremes are controversial. To test the CO2 fertilization effect for Central European grasslands, a data set comprising 16 years of biomass samples and environmental variables such as local weather and soil conditions was analysed by means of a novel approach. The data set was recorded on a "Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment" (FACE) experimental site which allows to quantify the CO2 fertilization effect under naturally occurring climate variations. The results indicate that the CO2 fertilization effect on the aboveground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. Such intermediate regimes were defined by the mean +/- 1 standard deviation of the long-term average in the respective variable three months before harvest. The observed CO2 fertilization effect was reduced or vanished under drier, wetter and hotter conditions when the respective variable exceeded the bounds of the intermediate regimes. Comparable conditions, characterized by a higher frequency of more extreme weather conditions, are predicted for the future by climate projections. Consequently, biogeochemical models may overestimate the future NPP sink

  18. Equations of state of novel solids synthesized under extreme pressure-temperature conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurakevych, O. O.; Le Godec, Y.; Solozhenko, V. L.

    2015-11-01

    The pressure-volume-temperature equations of state have been constructed by combining experimental data and semiempirical estimations for a number of compounds recently synthesized under extreme pressure-temperature conditions. The solids with various bonding types were considered: covalent hard and superhard boron-rich and diamond-like compounds (e.g. B6O, B13N2, BP, c-BC5, and nano-cBN), ionic semiconductors (e.g. Mg2C and Mg2C3), as well as intercalation compounds (e.g. clathrates Na4Si24 and Na24+xSi136), and simple substances (e.g. boron allotropes γ-B28 and t'-B52, and open-framework silicon allotrope o-Si24 with quasi-direct bandgap). We also showed how the reliable p-V-T equations of state may be constructed using different types of data available.

  19. Towards a better understanding of the structure of nano-minerals at ambient and extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Parise, John B.; Ehm, Lars; Michel, F. Marc; Antao, Sytle; Chupas, Peter J.; Lee, Peter L.; Martin, C. David; Shastri, Sarvjit

    2009-01-29

    The high-pressure (HP) behavior of nano-crystalline mackinawite (n-FeS) with particle sizes of 6, 7, and 8 nm has been investigated by high-energy X-ray total scattering and pair distribution function analysis. An irreversible first-order structural phase transition from tetragonal mackinawite to orthorhombic FeS-II was observed at about 3 GPa. The transition is induced by the closure of the van-der-Waals gap in the layered mackinawite structure. A grain size effect on the transition pressure and the compressibility was observed. The n-FcS study is an example of a broad class of nano-crystalline minerals where the total scattering (TS) approach provides significant new information on local-, intermediate- and long-range structure. Under extreme conditions, of pressure in this case, straightforward modifications allow quantitative descriptions of the transformations mechanisms.

  20. Sudden pore pressure rise and rapid landslide initiation induced under extreme rainfall conditions - a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukuoka, Hiroshi; Wang, Fawu; Wang, Gonghui

    2010-05-01

    Since July 19 to 26, 2009, western Japan had a severe rainstorms and caused floods and landslides. Most of the landslides are debris slide - debris flows. Most devastated case took place in Hofu city, Japan. On July 21, extremely intense rainstorm caused numerous debris flows and mud flows in the hillslopes Some of the debris flows destroyed residential houses and home for elderly people, and finally killed 14 residents. Debris flow distribution map was prepared soon based on airphoto interpretation. Japanese Meteorological Agency runs nation-wide ground-based rain gauge network as well as radar rain gauges, which provide hourly to 10 minutes precipitation distribution real-time with spatial resolution of about 5 km. Distribution of daily (cumulative) precipitation of July 21 shows (1) The cumulative precipitation from 6 am -- 12 am of the day was evaluated that their return period could be 200 - 600 years statistically. In 2009, another extraordinary rainfall, of which intensity was evaluated as less than 100 years more more, caused floods in another city claiming many residents lives on the way to evacuation area. Those frequent extraordinary extreme rainfall is not concluded as the consequence of global warming nor climate change, however, those frequency of extreme rainfall events affecting societies are obviously increasing in Japan, too. As for the Hofu city case, it was proved that debris flows took place in the high precipitation area and covered by covered by weathered granite sands and silts which is called "masa". This sands has been proved susceptible against landslides under extreme rainfall conditions. However, the transition from slide - debris flow process is not well revealed, except authors past experiment on the similar masa samples in June 1999 Hiroshima debris flow case. Authors have embedded pore pressure control system for the undrained ring shear apparatus. Strongly weathered sandy soils were sampled just on the smooth and flat granitic

  1. Atmospheric conditions associated to an extreme rainfall event on Madeira Island (Portugal)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Couto, Flavio; Salgado, Rui; João Costa, Maria

    2013-04-01

    Located in the Noth Atlantic Ocean (32°75'N and 17°00'W), the Madeira Island presents favourable conditions for orographic precipitation development, sometimes responsible for high records and floods, such as on 20 February 2010, when the island was affected by the worst flash floods in its recent history, causing more than 40 deaths and huge economic losses. After this disaster, there is a growing interest in understanding the main mechanisms and atmospheric conditions that are relevant to the establishment of extreme rainfall and consequently flash flood occurrences in the island. This study describes the meteorological aspects associated to a case study of high rainfall amounts in Madeira on 25 January 2011. In this case, flash floods and socio-economic damages were not reported, but precipitation above 300 mm in less than 24 hours were observed in Madeira's highlands. The heavy rainfall episode is studied based on rain gauge and satellite observations, as well as numerical simulation with the Mesoscale Non-Hydrostatic Model (MESO-NH). The MESO-NH simulation initialized and forced by ECMWF analysis have been performed with 3 horizontal domains (9, 3 and 1 km resolution), making use of the grid nesting technique. The evolution of the mean sea level pressure field (MSLP) was analyzed from the outer domain outputs, while the other meteorological variables were further explored using the 1 km resolution results. The simulation showed that the orography is crucial in the formation and intensification of the localized heavy rainfall in the island. A remarkable aspect is the fact that this episode occurred in a low-cape environment. Related to the synoptic environment, this event was characterized by a low pressure system centered to the southeastern of the island, in opposition to the results obtained for other extreme events occurred in the past two years, when the high precipitation amounts were due to the effects of the orography on the passage of cold fronts

  2. Relative importance of ring and tail currents to Dst under extremely disturbed conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalegaev, V. V.; Makarenkov, E. V.

    2008-02-01

    Relative ring current (RC) and tail current (TC) contributions to Dst were investigated on the basis of the statistical study of 70 magnetic storms of different intensities. Special attention was paid to the extremely disturbed conditions during magnetic storms in October-November 2003. Variations of the magnetic field produced by magnetospheric currents on the Earth's surface were calculated using paraboloid model of the magnetosphere A2000 [Alexeev, I.I., Belenkaya, E.S., Kalegaev, V.V., Feldstein, Y.I., Grafe, A., 1996. Journal of Geophysical Research 101,7737; Alexeev, I.I., Kalegaev, V.V., Belenkaya, E.S., Bobrovnikov, S.Yu., Feldstein, Ya.I., Gromova, L.I., 2001. Journal of Geophysical Research 106, 25683], taking into account the effect of terrestrial induced currents. For each magnetic storm we calculated Dst and contributions produced by large-scale magnetospheric current systems. The relative RC and TC contributions for each event at the storm maximum were examined in relationship to the peak pressure-corrected Dst value. Analysis of Dst sources confirms the conclusions of Kalegaev and Ganushkina [2005. In: Pulkkinen, T., Tsyganenko, N.A., Friedel, R.H.W. (Eds.), Physics and Modeling of the Inner Magnetosphere, AGU Geophysical Monograph 155. AGU, Washington, DC, p. 293] and Kalegaev and Makarenkov [2006. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 46, 570] about saturation of the TC effect under extremely disturbed conditions. The RC becomes the dominant Dst source during severe magnetic storms, but during moderate storms its contribution to Dst is comparable with TC's contribution. The RC injection amplitude increases with the growth of magnetospheric disturbance level.

  3. Why can tiAicrsiYN-based adaptive coatings deliver exceptional performance under extreme frictional conditions?

    PubMed

    Beake, Ben D; Fox-Rabinovich, German S; Losset, Yannick; Yamamoto, Kenji; Agguire, Myriam H; Veldhuis, Stephen C; Endrino, Jose L; Kovalev, Anatoliy I

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive TiAlCrSiYN-based coatings show promise under the extreme tribological conditions of dry ultra-high-speed (500-700 m min-1) machining of hardened tool steels. During high speed machining, protective sapphire and mullite-like tribo-films form on the surface of TiAlCrSiYN-based coatings resulting in beneficial heat-redistribution in the cutting zone. XRD and HRTEM data show that the tribo-films act as a thermal barrier creating a strong thermal gradient. The data are consistent with the temperature decreasing from approximately 1100-1200 degrees C at the outer surface to approximately 600 degrees C at the tribo-film/coating interface. The mechanical properties of the multilayer TiAICrSiYN/TiA1CrN coating were measured by high temperature nanoindentation. It retains relatively high hardness (21 GPa) at 600 degrees C. The nanomechanical properties of the underlying coating layer provide a stable low wear environment for the tribo-films to form and regenerate so it can sustain high temperatures under operation (600 degrees C). This combination of characteristics explains the high wear resistance of the multilayer TiAlCrSiYN/TiAICrN coating under extreme operating conditions. TiAlCrSiYN and TiAlCrN monolayer coatings have a less effective combination of adaptability and mechanical characteristics and therefore lower tool life. The microstructural reasons for different optimum hardness and plasticity between monolayer and multilayer coatings are discussed. PMID:23285634

  4. Recent Extreme Forest Fire Activity in Western Russia: Fire Danger Conditions, Fire Behavior and Smoke Transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stocks, B. J.; Fromm, M.; Goldammer, J.; Carr, R.; Sukhinin, A. I.

    2010-12-01

    During the summer of 2010, widespread forest and peatland fires in western Russia burned over hundreds of thousands of hectares, burning over croplands, destroying hundreds of homes, and directly causing the death of more than 50 people. Unprecedented drought conditions, combined with an extended heat wave, resulted in extreme fire danger conditions and explosive fire behavior in a region of Russia not noted for large fires. Several fires exhibited pyroconvection, injecting smoke directly into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, while deep-burning fires created major regional smoke problems. This smoke persisted in the heavily-populated areas around Moscow, exposing millions to high levels of ozone and particulate matter, and creating both immediate and longer-term health risks. This presentation will explore the drought conditions leading to the catastrophic fire behavior experienced in western Russia, and analyze fire behavior in terms of fuel consumption, smoke production, fire intensity levels, and pyroconvection. Impacts of regional and long-range smoke transport will also be discussed.

  5. Statistical Analysis of TEC Enhancements during Geomagnetic Disturbances in Extreme Solar Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, F.

    2014-12-01

    In the past decades, a remarkable set of comprehensive studies and review articles enriched theresearch of the Earth's ionospheric response to geomagnetic disturbances[Prolss, 1995; Buonsanto,1999; Mendillo, 2006]. However, comparative studies of TEC response during geomagnetic disturbances in solar minimum and solar maximum have not been reported yet. Here we present some new results of TEC enhancements during geomagnetic disturbancesin extreme solar maximum and deep solar minimum. The JPL TEC maps from 12/01/2000 to 12/31/2003 during high solar activity and from 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2010 during low solar activity are used. The deviation of TEC is defined as the differences between TEC and TECq, which represents the 27-day sliding smooth median. The geomagnetic disturbances selected have peaks of geomagnetic index Ap>20. We found that the winter anomaly appears in both extreme solar cycle conditions and has longer-lived patterns than other seasons.The nighttime enhancement is more significant in solar maximum than solar minimum. The mean duration of TEC enhancements is longer in solar minimum than solar maximum. The mean delay at the beginning of positive anomaly responds fastest at around 1500 LT and slowest at around midnight during solar minimum.The mean intensity of enhancements is stronger at higher latitudes and weaker at lower latitudes, and the mean delay is smaller at higher latitudes and larger at lower latitudes in both extreme solar cycle conditions. Acknowledgments: Thiswork was supportedby the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 41204107. We thank JPL and Word Data Center for Geomagnetism at Kyoto University for making available the data. Prolss, G. W., Ionospheric F region storms, in Handbook of Atmospheric Electrodynamics, vol. 2, edited by H. Volland, pp. 195 - 248, CRC Press,Boca Raton, Fla., 1995. Buonsanto, M., Ionospheric storm: A review,Space Science Review, vol. 88, pp. 563 - 601, 1999. Mendillo, M.: Storms in the

  6. Birthweight Related Factors in Northwestern Iran: Using Quantile Regression Method

    PubMed Central

    Fallah, Ramazan; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan; Zayeri, Farid; Shoghli, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Birthweight is one of the most important predicting indicators of the health status in adulthood. Having a balanced birthweight is one of the priorities of the health system in most of the industrial and developed countries. This indicator is used to assess the growth and health status of the infants. The aim of this study was to assess the birthweight of the neonates by using quantile regression in Zanjan province. Methods: This analytical descriptive study was carried out using pre-registered (March 2010 - March 2012) data of neonates in urban/rural health centers of Zanjan province using multiple-stage cluster sampling. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regressions andquantile regression method and SAS 9.2 statistical software. Results: From 8456 newborn baby, 4146 (49%) were female. The mean age of the mothers was 27.1±5.4 years. The mean birthweight of the neonates was 3104 ± 431 grams. Five hundred and seventy-three patients (6.8%) of the neonates were less than 2500 grams. In all quantiles, gestational age of neonates (p<0.05), weight and educational level of the mothers (p<0.05) showed a linear significant relationship with the i of the neonates. However, sex and birth rank of the neonates, mothers age, place of residence (urban/rural) and career were not significant in all quantiles (p>0.05). Conclusion: This study revealed the results of multiple linear regression and quantile regression were not identical. We strictly recommend the use of quantile regression when an asymmetric response variable or data with outliers is available. PMID:26925889

  7. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  8. Solar Wind Interaction with the Martian Upper Atmosphere at Early Mars/Extreme Solar Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, C.; Bougher, S. W.; Ma, Y.; Toth, G.; Lee, Y.; Nagy, A. F.; Tenishev, V.; Pawlowski, D. J.; Combi, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    The investigation of ion escape fluxes from Mars, resulting from the solar wind interaction with its upper atmosphere/ionosphere, is important due to its potential impact on the long-term evolution of Mars atmosphere (e.g., loss of water) over its history. In the present work, we adopt the 3-D Mars cold neutral atmosphere profiles (0 ~ 300 km) from the newly developed and validated Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M-GITM) and the 3-D hot oxygen profiles (100 km ~ 5 RM) from the exosphere Monte Carlo model Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS). We apply these 3-D model output fields into the 3-D BATS-R-US Mars multi-fluid MHD (MF-MHD) model (100 km ~ 20 RM) that can simulate the interplay between Mars upper atmosphere and solar wind by considering the dynamics of individual ion species. The multi-fluid MHD model solves separate continuity, momentum and energy equations for each ion species (H+, O+, O2+, CO2+). The M-GITM model together with the AMPS exosphere model take into account the effects of solar cycle and seasonal variations on both cold and hot neutral atmospheres. This feature allows us to investigate the corresponding effects on the Mars upper atmosphere ion escape by using a one-way coupling approach, i.e., both the M-GITM and AMPS model output fields are used as the input for the multi-fluid MHD model and the M-GITM is used as input into the AMPS exosphere model. In this study, we present M-GITM, AMPS, and MF-MHD calculations (1-way coupled) for 2.5 GYA conditions and/or extreme solar conditions for present day Mars (high solar wind velocities, high solar wind dynamic pressure, and high solar irradiance conditions, etc.). Present day extreme conditions may result in MF-MHD outputs that are similar to 2.5 GYA cases. The crustal field orientations are also considered in this study. By comparing estimates of past ion escape rates with the current ion loss rates to be returned by the MAVEN spacecraft (2013-2016), we can better constrain the

  9. Characterization of Multi-Scale Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oakley, N.; Kaplan, M.; Ralph, F. M.

    2015-12-01

    The east-west oriented Transverse Ranges of Southern California have historically experienced shallow landslides and debris flows that threaten life and property. Steep topography, soil composition, and frequent wildfires make this area susceptible to mass wasting. Extreme rainfall often acts as a trigger for these events. This work characterizes atmospheric conditions at multiple scales during extreme (>99th percentile) 1-day precipitation events in the major sub-ranges of the Transverse Ranges. Totals from these 1-day events generally exceed the established sub-daily intensity-duration thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows in this region. Daily extreme precipitation values are derived from both gridded and station-based datasets over the period 1958-2014. For each major sub-range, extreme events are clustered by atmospheric feature and direction of moisture transport. A composite analysis of synoptic conditions is produced for each cluster to create a conceptual model of atmospheric conditions favoring extreme precipitation. The vertical structure of the atmosphere during these extreme events is also examined using observed and modeled soundings. Preliminary results show two atmospheric features to be of importance: 1) closed and cutoff low-pressure systems, areas of counter-clockwise circulation that can produce southerly flow orthogonal to the Transverse Range ridge axes; and 2) atmospheric rivers that transport large quantities of water vapor into the region. In some cases, the closed lows and atmospheric rivers work in concert with each other to produce extreme precipitation. Additionally, there is a notable east-west dipole of precipitation totals during some extreme events between the San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains where extreme values are observed in one range and not the other. The cause of this relationship is explored. The results of this work can help forecasters and emergency responders determine the likelihood that an event will

  10. Nutritional condition of Pacific Black Brant wintering at the extremes of their range

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mason, D.D.; Barboza, P.S.; Ward, D.H.

    2006-01-01

    Endogenous stores of energy allow birds to survive periods of severe weather and food shortage during winter. We documented changes in lipid, protein, moisture, and ash in body tissues of adult female Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and modeled the energetic costs of wintering. Birds were collected at the extremes of their winter range, in Alaska and Baja California, Mexico. Body lipids decreased over winter for birds in Alaska but increased for those in Baja California. Conversely, body protein increased over winter for Brant in Alaska and remained stable for birds in Baja California. Lipid stores likely fuel migration for Brant wintering in Baja California and ensure winter survival for those in Alaska. Increases in body protein may support earlier reproduction for Brant in Alaska. Predicted energy demands were similar between sites during late winter but avenues of expenditure were different. Birds in Baja California spent more energy on lipid synthesis while those in Alaska incurred higher thermoregulatory costs. Estimated daily intake rates of eelgrass were similar between sites in early winter; however, feeding time was more constrained in Alaska because of high tides and short photoperiods. Despite differences in energetic costs and foraging time, Brant wintering at both sites appeared to be in good condition. We suggest that wintering in Alaska may be more advantageous than long-distance migration if winter survival is similar between sites and constraints on foraging time do not impair body condition. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

  11. Predicting the solubility of gases in Nitrile Butadiene Rubber in extreme conditions using molecular simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khawaja, Musab; Molinari, Nicola; Sutton, Adrian; Mostofi, Arash

    In the oil and gas industry, elastomer seals play an important role in protecting sensitive monitoring equipment from contamination by gases - a problem that is exacerbated by the high pressures and temperatures found down-hole. The ability to predict and prevent such permeative failure has proved elusive to-date. Nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) is a common choice of elastomer for seals due to its resistance to heat and fuels. In the conditions found in the well it readily absorbs small molecular weight gases. How this behaviour changes quantitatively for different gases as a function of temperature and pressure is not well-understood. In this work a series of fully atomistic simulations are performed to understand the effect of extreme conditions on gas solubility in NBR. Widom particle insertion is used to compute solubilities. The importance of sampling and allowing structural relaxation upon compression are highlighted, and qualitatively reasonable trends reproduced. Finally, while at STP it has previously been shown that the solubility of CO2 is higher than that of He in NBR, we observe that under the right circumstances it is possible to reverse this trend.

  12. Mercury's core fraction and ancient crustal composition: Predictions from planetary formation under extremely reducing conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, S. M.; Elkins-Tanton, L.

    2007-12-01

    Several hypotheses have been suggested to explain the paradox of Mercury's large core, which is on the order of sixty percent of the mass of the planet and recently demonstrated to be at least partially molten. Here we suggest that extremely reducing conditions in the earliest stages of planetary accretion nearest to the Sun may have produced the unusual metallic iron fraction by reducing iron otherwise bound into silicates. We demonstrate the formation conditions necessary for various meteoritic bulk compositions to produce the core/mantle ratio of Mercury. During this hypothetical core formation, we assume the remaining silicate fraction of Mercury (now largely lacking iron) has been heated to produce a magma ocean. The resulting cumulate mantle composition is calculated in a Matlab simulation of magma ocean solidification using a CMAS system adapted for Mercury. Plagioclase flotation, frequently cited as the necessary signature of a magma ocean, is highly dependent upon initial bulk composition. We demonstrate the initial silicate iron content of the magma ocean necessary to make plagioclase buoyant and thus produce a plagioclase flotation crust as seen on the Moon. In addition, over a range of bulk compositions the solidified mantle cumulates are unstable to gravitational overturn. During overturn hot cumulates rise from depth and may cross their solidi and melt, producing an earliest planetary crust. This crust may still exist on Mercury. With the first flyby results of the MESSENGER mission coming this winter, predictions from these models can be compared with initial ground measurements.

  13. Extreme sensory processing patterns and their relation with clinical conditions among individuals with major affective disorders.

    PubMed

    Engel-Yeger, Batya; Muzio, Caterina; Rinosi, Giorgio; Solano, Paola; Geoffroy, Pierre Alexis; Pompili, Maurizio; Amore, Mario; Serafini, Gianluca

    2016-02-28

    Previous studies highlighted the involvement of sensory perception in emotional processes. However, the role of extreme sensory processing patterns expressed in hyper- or hyposensitivity was not thoroughly considered. The present study, in real life conditions, examined the unique sensory processing patterns of individuals with major affective disorders and their relationship with psychiatric symptomatology. The sample consisted of 105 participants with major affective conditions ranging in age from 20 to 84 years (mean=56.7±14.6). All participants completed the Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris and San Diego (TEMPS-A), the second version of the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), and Adolescent/Adult Sensory Profile (AASP). Sensory sensitivity/avoiding hypersensitivity patterns and low registration (a hyposensitivity pattern) were prevalent among our sample as compared to normative data. About seventy percent of the sample showed lower seeking tendency. Stepwise regression analyses revealed that depression and anxious/cyclothymic affective temperaments were predicted by sensory sensory/avoiding. Anxious and irritable affective temperaments were predicted by low registration. Hyperthymic affective temperament and lower severity of depression were predicted by sensation seeking. Hyposensitivity or hypersensitivity may be "trait" markers of individuals with major affective disorders. Interventions should refer to the individual unique sensory profiles and their behavioral and functional impact in the context of real life. PMID:26738981

  14. HPCAT : A state-of-the-art facility for xray diffraction at extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somayazulu, Maddury; Meng, Yue; Hausermann, Daniel; Mao, Ho-Kwang

    2004-03-01

    The High-Pressure Collaborative Access Team (HPCAT) research facility at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) is dedicated to the study of materials under extreme conditions of pressure and temperature. This sets very stringent requirements for very small and extremely well defined micro-beams of x-rays. Furthermore, a comprehensive understanding of high-pressure phenomena relies on a combination of complementary measurements so HPCAT uses an integrated approach far more powerful than the sum of individual techniques. This requires the operation of many experimental techniques in parallel - diffraction, emission and absorption spectroscopy, inelastic scattering, nuclear resonance spectroscopy and both undulator and bending magnet beamlines have to divide into branches to allow independent and simultaneous operation of many experiment stations. This paper presents how a side beamline, offset from the main undulator line, is generated using a unique energy-tunable (19 to 36 keV) branching-monochromator, and how the distorted wave-front is perfectly focused by a pair of bimorph mirrors in a Kirkpatrick-Baez (KB) configuration. The research performance of the micro-diffraction station fed by the branching-monochromator calls for dynamical achromatic focusing of the high-energy x-rays with an extra constraint on the maximum tolerable cross-fire at the sample calling for a large and variable - 0.5 to 3m - focusing distance. This is achieved using two actively bendable KB bimorph mirrors that allow full adaptive zonal control. The possibility to locally steer the mirror surface leads to extremely clean, symmetric and low-background focal spots that satisfy perfectly the requirements of high-pressure experiments. Focal spots of 5 µm x 7 µm FWHM have been achieved and the large acceptance of the 300 mm long mirrors delivers a high integrated flux in the range of 5 x 10^12 photons per second which greatly reduces data collection times compared to similar high

  15. Aerobic carboxydotrophy under extremely haloalkaline conditions in Alkalispirillum/Alkalilimnicola strains isolated from soda lakes.

    PubMed

    Sorokin, Dimitry Yu; Tourova, Tatjana P; Kovaleva, Olga L; Kuenen, J Gijs; Muyzer, Gerard

    2010-03-01

    Aerobic enrichments from soda lake sediments with CO as the only substrate resulted in the isolation of five bacterial strains capable of autotrophic growth with CO at extremely high pH and salinity. The strains belonged to the Alkalispirillum/Alkalilimnicola cluster in the Gammaproteobacteria, where the ability to oxidize CO, but not growth with CO, has been demonstrated previously. The growth with CO was possible only at an oxygen concentration below 5 % and CO concentration below 20 % in the gas phase. The isolates were also capable of growth with formate but not with H(2). The carboxydotrophic growth occurred within a narrow pH range from 8 to 10.5 (optimum at 9.5) and a broad salt concentration from 0.3 to 3.5 M total Na(+) (optimum at 1.0 M). Cells grown on CO had high respiration activity with CO and formate, while the cells grown on formate actively oxidized formate alone. In CO-grown cells, CO-dehydrogenase (CODH) activity was detectable both in soluble and membrane fractions, while the NAD-independent formate dehydrogenase (FDH) resided solely in membranes. The results of total protein profiling and the failure to detect CODH with conventional primers for the coxL gene indicated that the CO-oxidizing enzyme in haloalkaliphilic isolates might differ from the classical aerobic CODH complex. A single cbbL gene encoding the RuBisCO large subunit was detected in all strains, suggesting the presence of the Calvin cycle of inorganic carbon fixation. Overall, these results demonstrated the possibility of aerobic carboxydotrophy under extremely haloalkaline conditions. PMID:19959573

  16. Spring Ephemerals Adapt to Extremely High Light Conditions via an Unusual Stabilization of Photosystem II.

    PubMed

    Tu, Wenfeng; Li, Yang; Liu, Wu; Wu, Lishuan; Xie, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Yuanming; Wilhelm, Christian; Yang, Chunhong

    2015-01-01

    Ephemerals, widely distributed in the Gobi desert, have developed significant characteristics to sustain high photosynthetic efficiency under high light (HL) conditions. Since the light reaction is the basis for photosynthetic conversion of solar energy to chemical energy, the photosynthetic performances in thylakoid membrane of the spring ephemerals in response to HL were studied. Three plant species, namely two C3 spring ephemeral species of Cruciferae: Arabidopsis pumila (A. pumila) and Sisymbrium altissimum (S. altissimum), and the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana (A. thaliana) were chosen for the study. The ephemeral A. pumila, which is genetically close to A. thaliana and ecologically in the same habitat as S. altissimum, was used to avoid complications arising from the superficial differences resulted from comparing plants from two extremely contrasting ecological groups. The findings manifested that the ephemerals showed significantly enhanced activities of photosystem (PS) II under HL conditions, while the activities of PSII in A. thaliana were markedly decreased under the same conditions. Detailed analyses of the electron transport processes revealed that the increased plastoquinone pool oxidization, together with the enhanced PSI activities, ensured a lowered excitation pressure to PSII of both ephemerals, and thus facilitated the photosynthetic control to avoid photodamage to PSII. The analysis of the reaction centers of the PSs, both in terms of D1 protein turnover kinetics and the long-term adaptation, revealed that the unusually stable PSs structure provided the basis for the ephemerals to carry out high photosynthetic performances. It is proposed that the characteristic photosynthetic performances of ephemerals were resulted from effects of the long-term adaptation to the harsh environments. PMID:26779223

  17. Spring Ephemerals Adapt to Extremely High Light Conditions via an Unusual Stabilization of Photosystem II

    PubMed Central

    Tu, Wenfeng; Li, Yang; Liu, Wu; Wu, Lishuan; Xie, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Yuanming; Wilhelm, Christian; Yang, Chunhong

    2016-01-01

    Ephemerals, widely distributed in the Gobi desert, have developed significant characteristics to sustain high photosynthetic efficiency under high light (HL) conditions. Since the light reaction is the basis for photosynthetic conversion of solar energy to chemical energy, the photosynthetic performances in thylakoid membrane of the spring ephemerals in response to HL were studied. Three plant species, namely two C3 spring ephemeral species of Cruciferae: Arabidopsis pumila (A. pumila) and Sisymbrium altissimum (S. altissimum), and the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana (A. thaliana) were chosen for the study. The ephemeral A. pumila, which is genetically close to A. thaliana and ecologically in the same habitat as S. altissimum, was used to avoid complications arising from the superficial differences resulted from comparing plants from two extremely contrasting ecological groups. The findings manifested that the ephemerals showed significantly enhanced activities of photosystem (PS) II under HL conditions, while the activities of PSII in A. thaliana were markedly decreased under the same conditions. Detailed analyses of the electron transport processes revealed that the increased plastoquinone pool oxidization, together with the enhanced PSI activities, ensured a lowered excitation pressure to PSII of both ephemerals, and thus facilitated the photosynthetic control to avoid photodamage to PSII. The analysis of the reaction centers of the PSs, both in terms of D1 protein turnover kinetics and the long-term adaptation, revealed that the unusually stable PSs structure provided the basis for the ephemerals to carry out high photosynthetic performances. It is proposed that the characteristic photosynthetic performances of ephemerals were resulted from effects of the long-term adaptation to the harsh environments. PMID:26779223

  18. Surf zone, infragravity wave energy flux, and runup in extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiedler, J. W.; Brodie, K. L.; McNinch, J.; Guza, R. T.

    2014-12-01

    Waves, currents, and sand levels were observed on a 1.4 km-long cross-shore transect extending from the back beach to ~11 m water depth at Agate Beach, Oregon in Fall 2013. Wave runup and water table fluctuations on this low slope (1:80) beach were measured with a cliff-mounted scanning Lidar and buried pressure sensors. Significant wave heights at an offshore buoy in 128m depth ranged from small (0.5m) to extreme (7.5m), with peak periods between 4-22 seconds. Infragravity frequency (nominally 0.01 Hz) horizontal runup excursions exceeded 100m, and infragravity cross-shore velocity exceeded 3 m/s. Cross-shore patterns of infragravity wave energy flux, observed with seven co-located pressure and current meters, indicate 'proto-saturation' of the inner surfzone in extreme conditions. That is, the intensification of incident wave forcing (e.g. higher energy, longer swell) leads to a wider surfzone and an increase in the shoreward infragravity wave energy seaward of the surfzone, but produces more modest increases in flux in the inner surfzone, and in the runup. Nonlinear energy balances, based on the observations, show transfer of energy from sea-swell to infragravity waves, and vice-versa. The infragravity energy balance closes in cases with low energy incident sea-swell. With more energetic incident waves, there is an unexplained inner surfzone energy sink at the lowest IG frequencies (0.004-0.02 Hz). Ongoing work aims to quantify the effect on infragravity energy balances by infragravity wave breaking and bottom friction. Additionally, the estimates may be degraded by contamination with rotational velocities of surfzone eddies. Whatever the dynamical explanation, infragravity wave runup on a low slope beach in high-energy conditions is limited significantly by dissipation. The slow rate of runup increase suggests nascent, or 'proto' saturation. This work was supported by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

  19. Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

    2014-01-01

    Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

  20. Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

    2014-01-01

    Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

  1. Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

    2014-06-01

    Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted.

  2. Modeling of the Human - Operator in a Complex System Functioning Under Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Getzov, Peter; Hubenova, Zoia; Yordanov, Dimitar; Popov, Wiliam

    2013-12-01

    Problems, related to the explication of sophisticated control systems of objects, operating under extreme conditions, have been examined and the impact of the effectiveness of the operator's activity on the systems as a whole. The necessity of creation of complex simulation models, reflecting operator's activity, is discussed. Organizational and technical system of an unmanned aviation complex is described as a sophisticated ergatic system. Computer realization of main subsystems of algorithmic system of the man as a controlling system is implemented and specialized software for data processing and analysis is developed. An original computer model of a Man as a tracking system has been implemented. Model of unmanned complex for operators training and formation of a mental model in emergency situation, implemented in "matlab-simulink" environment, has been synthesized. As a unit of the control loop, the pilot (operator) is simplified viewed as an autocontrol system consisting of three main interconnected subsystems: sensitive organs (perception sensors); central nervous system; executive organs (muscles of the arms, legs, back). Theoretical-data model of prediction the level of operator's information load in ergatic systems is proposed. It allows the assessment and prediction of the effectiveness of a real working operator. Simulation model of operator's activity in takeoff based on the Petri nets has been synthesized.

  3. Modified and double-clad large mode-area leakage channel fibers for extreme temperature conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thavasi Raja, G.; Varshney, Shailendra K.

    2015-03-01

    Recently large-mode-area hybrid leakage channel fibers (HLCFs) were reported to overcome the limitation on mode area with single-mode (SM) operation for the practical bending radius of 7.5 cm at the preferred wavelength of 1064 nm. In this paper, we present the effects of a thermally induced refractive index change on the mode area of bend-compensated extremely LMA modified HLCFs (M-HLCFs) and double-clad M-HLCFs. A full-vectorial finite-element method-based modal solver is used to obtain the modal characteristics of M-HLCFs in various heat load conditions. Numerical simulations reveal that the effective mode area of M-HLCFs is ˜1433 μm2 at room temperature, which marginally decreases to ˜1387 μm2 while SM operation is maintained when the temperature distribution rises to ˜125 °C over the fiber geometry during high-power operations. We have also investigated a double-clad M-HLCF design exhibiting a mode area > ˜ 1000 μm2 for all heat load density variations up to a maximum of 12 × 109 W m-3, corresponding to a 250 °C temperature in the center of the fiber core region.

  4. Behavior of NiTi Wires for Dampers and Actuators in Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isalgue, A.; Auguet, C.; Grau, R.; Torra, V.; Cinca, N.; Fernandez, J.

    2015-09-01

    Shape memory alloys are considered smart materials because of their singular thermo-mechanical properties, due to a thermoelastic martensitic transformation, enabling possible uses as actuators (because of mechanical recovery induced from temperature changes) and as dampers (because of hysteresis). NiTi wires for dampers in Civil Engineering had been characterized and tested in facilities. Guaranteed performance needs to know behavior during fatigue life and knowledge of effects in the event of extreme conditions, as eventual overstraining. In this work, we check the possibilities to absorb mechanical energy on the fatigue life depending on stress level and explore the consequences of overstraining the material during installation, the possibilities of partial healing by moderate heating, and some effects of over-stressing the wires. The mechanical energy absorbed by the unit weight of damper wire might be very high during its lifetime if maximum stresses remain relatively low allowing high fatigue life. We show also some results on NiTi wire working as an actuator. The lifetime mechanical work performed by an actuator wire can be very high if applied stresses are limited. The overstraining produces relevant "residual" deformation, which can be to some extent reversed by moderate heating at zero stress. The reason for the observed characteristics seems to be that when external high stresses are applied to an NiTi wire, it undergoes some plastic deformation, leaving a distribution of internal stresses that alter the shape and position of the macroscopic stress-strain transformation path.

  5. Phase transition and chemical decomposition of liquid carbon dioxide and nitrogen mixture under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao-Xu, Jiang; Guan-Yu, Chen; Yu-Tong, Li; Xin-Lu, Cheng; Cui-Ming, Tang

    2016-02-01

    Thermodynamic and chemical properties of liquid carbon dioxide and nitrogen (CO2-N2) mixture under the conditions of extremely high densities and temperatures are studied by using quantum molecular dynamic (QMD) simulations based on density functional theory including dispersion corrections (DFT-D). We present equilibrium properties of liquid mixture for 112 separate density and temperature points, by selecting densities ranging from ρ = 1.80 g/cm3 to 3.40 g/cm3 and temperatures from T = 500 K to 8000 K. In the range of our study, the liquid CO2-N2 mixture undergoes a continuous transition from molecular to atomic fluid state and liquid polymerization inferred from pair correlation functions (PCFs) and the distribution of various molecular components. The insulator-metal transition is demonstrated by means of the electronic density of states (DOS). Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11374217, 11135012, and 11375262) and the Joint Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the China Academy of Engineering Physics (Grant No. 11176020).

  6. Smell-taste dysfunctions in extreme weight/eating conditions: analysis of hormonal and psychological interactions.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Agüera, Zaida; Fernández-García, Jose C; Garrido-Sanchez, Lourdes; Alcaide-Torres, Juan; Tinahones, Francisco J; Giner-Bartolomé, Cristina; Baños, Rosa M; Botella, Cristina; Cebolla, Ausias; de la Torre, Rafael; Fernández-Real, Jose M; Ortega, Francisco J; Frühbeck, Gema; Gómez-Ambrosi, Javier; Granero, Roser; Islam, Mohamed A; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana; Tárrega, Salomé; Menchón, José M; Fagundo, Ana B; Sancho, Carolina; Estivill, Xavier; Treasure, Janet; Casanueva, Felipe F

    2016-02-01

    (1) The objective of this study is to analyze differences in smell-taste capacity between females in extreme weight/eating conditions (EWC) and (2) to explore the interaction between smell/taste capacity, gastric hormones, eating behavior and body mass index (BMI). The sample comprised 239 females in EWC [64 Anorexia nervosa (AN) and 80 age-matched healthy-weight controls, and 59 obese and 36 age-matched healthy-weight controls]. Smell and taste assessments were performed through "Sniffin' Sticks" and "Taste Strips," respectively. The assessment measures included the eating disorders inventory-2, the symptom check list 90-revised, and The Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire, as well as peptides from the gastrointestinal tract [Ghrelin, peptide YY, cholecystokinin]. Smell capacity was differentially associated across EWC groups. Smell was clearly impaired in obese participants and increased in AN (hyposmia in Obesity was 54.3 and 6.4 % in AN), but taste capacity did not vary across EWC. Ghrelin levels were significantly decreased in obese subjects and were related to smell impairment. EWC individuals showed a distinct smell profile and circulating ghrelin levels compared to controls. Smell capacity and ghrelin may act as moderators of emotional eating and BMI. PMID:26198367

  7. Lorenz-Mie digital holographic microscopy on complex colloids and at extreme pressure conditions (Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saglimbeni, Filippo; Bianchi, Silvio; Di Leonardo, Roberto; Padgett, Miles J.; Gibson, Graham; Bowman, Richard W.; Paradossi, Gaio

    2016-03-01

    Lorenz-Mie scattering theory allows to predict the field scattered by spherical objects illuminated by coherent light. By fitting the fringe pattern resulting from the interference of incident and scattered light, it is possible to track and size colloidal particles with a few nanometer precision. Using digital holographic microscopy (DHM) we extend the applications of Lorenz-Mie theory to hollow spherical structures and to extremely high pressure conditions. On the one hand, we geometrically and optically characterize complex colloids as polymer-shelled microbubbles, with high precision, low costs and short acquisition time. These microbubbles are likely to be unique tools for targeted drug delivery and are currently used as contrast agents for sonography. We measured size, shell thickness and refractive index for hundreds of polymeric microbubbles showing that shell thickness displays a large variation that is strongly correlated with its refractive index and thus with its composition. On the other hand we demonstrate that DHM can be used for accurate 3D tracking and sizing of a holographically trapped colloidal probe in a diamond anvil cell (DAC). Polystyrene beads were trapped in water up to Gigapascal pressures while simultaneously recording in-line holograms at 1 KHz frame rate. This technique may potentially provide a new method for spatially resolved pressure measurements inside a DAC.

  8. Sporosarcina pasteurii use in extreme alkaline conditions for recycling solid industrial wastes.

    PubMed

    Cuzman, Oana A; Rescic, Silvia; Richter, Katharina; Wittig, Linda; Tiano, Piero

    2015-11-20

    The ureolytic bacteria are one of the most efficient organisms able to produce high amounts of carbonate that easily react with the free calcium ions from the environment. Sporosarcina pasteurii, a robust microbe in alkaline environments, was tested in this work for its potential use in an eco-cementation process that involves the biomediated calcite precipitation (BCP). Bacterial behavior in extreme alkaline environment (pH values of 9-13) was tested in controlled laboratory conditions and in the presence of solid industry wastes, such as Cement Kiln Dust (CKD) and Lime Kiln Dust (LKD), by evaluating the enzymatic activity and the calcite precipitation capacity. Grain consolidation potential of S. pasteurii was tested for one type of CKD mixed with ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS), with possible bioclogging and biocementation applications. The results revealed the formation of stable biocalcite in the presence of CKD, with a performance depending on the pH-value and free calcium ion content. The BCP induced by S. pasteurii and the recycling of solid wastes, such as CKD with high lime content, is a promising way for different bioclogging and biocementation applications, with benefits in construction costs and reduction of environmental pollution. PMID:26376469

  9. Hydrological mass variations caused by extreme weather conditions in Aisa measured by GRACE TVG data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Z.; Chao, B. F.

    2012-12-01

    Droughts, excessive rain, snowstorm, and flooding caused by extreme weather conditions, which occurred frequently in China during the last several years, are primarily associated with hydrological mass variations. The dual-satellite mission of GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) launched in 2002 has enabled measurement of the Earth's (tiny) time-variable gravity (TVG), providing new and precise information about mass transport on or in the Earth, especially short periodic hydrological mass variations. In this study, we examine terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes in Chongqing (great drought occurred in 2006 summer), south China (snowstorm occurred in early 2008) and Thailand (flood occurred in 2011) using GRACE RL05 (RL04) time-variable gravity (TVG) data and predications from major climate and land surface models, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) reanalysis climate model and the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and river gauge data. The results demonstrate the unique potential of GRACE measurements in monitoring large-scale hydrological mass variation events and in evaluating advanced climate and land surface models.

  10. Characteristics of the global ionospheric electron density during the extreme solar minimum condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jee, G.

    2010-12-01

    The last solar minimum period between the cycles 23 and 24 was anomalously low and lasted long compared with previous solar minimums. The resulting solar irradiance received in the Earth’s upper atmosphere was extremely low and therefore it can readily be expected that the upper atmosphere should be greatly affected by this low solar activity. There were several studies on this effect but many of them was on the thermosphere (Solomon et al., 2010; Emmert et al., 2010). According to these studies, the thermospheric temperature was cooler and the density was lower than the previous solar minimum periods. The low solar irradiance during the last solar minimum should also affect the ionosphere, not only via the lower ion-electron production due to the lower EUV radiation but also through the interactions with the thermosphere that was already influenced by the low solar irradiance. In this study, we utilized the measurements of total electron content (TEC) from the TOPEX and JASON satellites during the periods of 1992 to 2010, which includes the last two solar minimums, in order to investigate the differences between the ionospheric behaviors during the two minimum conditions. Initially the levels of the global ionization will be examined during these minimum periods and then further discussions will be continued on the details of the ionospheric behavior such as the seasonal and storm-time variations.

  11. Robust and efficient estimation with weighted composite quantile regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xuejun; Li, Jingzhi; Xia, Tian; Yan, Wanfeng

    2016-09-01

    In this paper we introduce a weighted composite quantile regression (CQR) estimation approach and study its application in nonlinear models such as exponential models and ARCH-type models. The weighted CQR is augmented by using a data-driven weighting scheme. With the error distribution unspecified, the proposed estimators share robustness from quantile regression and achieve nearly the same efficiency as the oracle maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a variety of error distributions including the normal, mixed-normal, Student's t, Cauchy distributions, etc. We also suggest an algorithm for the fast implementation of the proposed methodology. Simulations are carried out to compare the performance of different estimators, and the proposed approach is used to analyze the daily S&P 500 Composite index, which verifies the effectiveness and efficiency of our theoretical results.

  12. Characterization of extremely low frequency magnetic fields from diesel, gasoline and hybrid cars under controlled conditions.

    PubMed

    Hareuveny, Ronen; Sudan, Madhuri; Halgamuge, Malka N; Yaffe, Yoav; Tzabari, Yuval; Namir, Daniel; Kheifets, Leeka

    2015-02-01

    This study characterizes extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic field (MF) levels in 10 car models. Extensive measurements were conducted in three diesel, four gasoline, and three hybrid cars, under similar controlled conditions and negligible background fields. Averaged over all four seats under various driving scenarios the fields were lowest in diesel cars (0.02 μT), higher for gasoline (0.04-0.05 μT) and highest in hybrids (0.06-0.09 μT), but all were in-line with daily exposures from other sources. Hybrid cars had the highest mean and 95th percentile MF levels, and an especially large percentage of measurements above 0.2 μT. These parameters were also higher for moving conditions compared to standing while idling or revving at 2500 RPM and higher still at 80 km/h compared to 40 km/h. Fields in non-hybrid cars were higher at the front seats, while in hybrid cars they were higher at the back seats, particularly the back right seat where 16%-69% of measurements were greater than 0.2 μT. As our results do not include low frequency fields (below 30 Hz) that might be generated by tire rotation, we suggest that net currents flowing through the cars' metallic chassis may be a possible source of MF. Larger surveys in standardized and well-described settings should be conducted with different types of vehicles and with spectral analysis of fields including lower frequencies due to magnetization of tires. PMID:25647323

  13. Characterization of Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Fields from Diesel, Gasoline and Hybrid Cars under Controlled Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Hareuveny, Ronen; Sudan, Madhuri; Halgamuge, Malka N.; Yaffe, Yoav; Tzabari, Yuval; Namir, Daniel; Kheifets, Leeka

    2015-01-01

    This study characterizes extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic field (MF) levels in 10 car models. Extensive measurements were conducted in three diesel, four gasoline, and three hybrid cars, under similar controlled conditions and negligible background fields. Averaged over all four seats under various driving scenarios the fields were lowest in diesel cars (0.02 μT), higher for gasoline (0.04–0.05 μT) and highest in hybrids (0.06–0.09 μT), but all were in-line with daily exposures from other sources. Hybrid cars had the highest mean and 95th percentile MF levels, and an especially large percentage of measurements above 0.2 μT. These parameters were also higher for moving conditions compared to standing while idling or revving at 2500 RPM and higher still at 80 km/h compared to 40 km/h. Fields in non-hybrid cars were higher at the front seats, while in hybrid cars they were higher at the back seats, particularly the back right seat where 16%–69% of measurements were greater than 0.2 μT. As our results do not include low frequency fields (below 30 Hz) that might be generated by tire rotation, we suggest that net currents flowing through the cars’ metallic chassis may be a possible source of MF. Larger surveys in standardized and well-described settings should be conducted with different types of vehicles and with spectral analysis of fields including lower frequencies due to magnetization of tires. PMID:25647323

  14. Isolation a new strain of Kocuria rosea capable of tolerating extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Gholami, M; Etemadifar, Z; Bouzari, M

    2015-06-01

    A new actinobacterial strain was isolated from Ab-e-Siah spring (dark water) taken from the Ramsar city in Iran, and subjected to several stress conditions investigation. The isolate, named MG2 strain, was Gram-positive, aerobic, diplococci or tetrad shaped, non-spore forming and non-motile. Phylogenetic analysis of the isolate using 16S rDNA sequence indicated that the organism matched best with the genus Kocuria and the highest sequence similarities (98.55%) being found with Kocuria rosea. The 16S rDNA sequence determined in this study has been deposited in the NCBI database with the accession no. JX534199, K. rosea strain MG2. The isolated strain was an alkaliphilic-mesophilic bacterium because the optimal growth was observed at pH 9.2 and temperature of 28 °C under aerobic condition. MG2 was a halotolerant strain and tolerated maximally to 15% NaCl concentraion. Viability analysis by flow cytometry indicated that this strain had highly resistance to UV-C radiation and moderately resistance to desiccation after 28 days. The viability of K. rosea strains MG2 and Deinococcus radiodurans R1 were determined D87 and D98 according to D index, respectively, by a dose radiation 25 J/cm (Appukuttan et al., 2006). Thus the UV resistance of strain MG2 was comparable with representative radiation resistant Deinococcus. Also MG2 was grown at 1-4% of H2O2 as an oxidant agent. This research is the first study on multiple extreme resistance of Kocuria rosea new strain (MG2) isolated in Iran. PMID:25839781

  15. Tree growth and forest ecosystem functioning in Eurasia under extreme climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saurer, Matthias; Kirdyanov, Alexander; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Bryukhanova, Marina; Knorre, Anastasia; Nasyrov, Muhtor; Frank, David; Treydte, Kerstin; Sidorova, Olga; Siegwolf, Rolf

    2013-04-01

    The main goal of this study is to improve our understanding of the influence of a changing climate on trees in extreme conditions by a detailed analysis of the factors controlling tree-ring growth. We investigated forest ecosystems in regions that are very sensitive to climatic changes and where rapid and dramatic environmental and climatic changes are on-going, namely, the high latitude permafrost region in Central Siberia (Russia), the semi-arid dry areas in Central Asia (Uzbekistan) and high-altitude sites in the Alps (Switzerland). Tree-ring parameters studied were ring-width, density, cell number and structure and the ratio of carbon and oxygen isotopes. An important aspect of the work was the characterization of seasonal growth and water supply of trees. Intra-seasonal dynamics of tree-ring formation was correlated with monitored environmental factors, such as air and soil temperature and moisture, permafrost depth and the isotope composition of soil water, of precipitation, and of stream water. Intra-annual and long-term variability of the main tree-ring parameters were compared for the different regions. The results obtained help us to understand better tree-physiological processes valid under contrasting environmental conditions. For instance, the relationship between the onset of cell division in the cambium and the thermo-hydrological soil regime was used to determine the period of the year with the highest influence on the start of tree-ring formation. Seasonally resolved oxygen isotope depth profiles of soil water and concurrent xylem and leaf water measurements show the importance of time-lags between precipitation, leaf processes and growth. The data obtained are important for improving tree-ring growth models and estimating future tree growth under climate change. Funding: SNF SCOPES IZ73Z0_128035

  16. Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

  17. Structural and Mechanical Properties of Intermediate Filaments under Extreme Conditions and Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Zhao

    Intermediate filaments are one of the three major components of the cytoskeleton in eukaryotic cells. It was discovered during the recent decades that intermediate filament proteins play key roles to reinforce cells subjected to large-deformation as well as participate in signal transduction. However, it is still poorly understood how the nanoscopic structure, as well as the biochemical properties of these protein molecules contribute to their biomechanical functions. In this research we investigate the material function of intermediate filaments under various extreme mechanical conditions as well as disease states. We use a full atomistic model and study its response to mechanical stresses. Learning from the mechanical response obtained from atomistic simulations, we build mesoscopic models following the finer-trains-coarser principles. By using this multiple-scale model, we present a detailed analysis of the mechanical properties and associated deformation mechanisms of intermediate filament network. We reveal the mechanism of a transition from alpha-helices to beta-sheets with subsequent intermolecular sliding under mechanical force, which has been inferred previously from experimental results. This nanoscale mechanism results in a characteristic nonlinear force-extension curve, which leads to a delocalization of mechanical energy and prevents catastrophic fracture. This explains how intermediate filament can withstand extreme mechanical deformation of > 1 00% strain despite the presence of structural defects. We combine computational and experimental techniques to investigate the molecular mechanism of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome, a premature aging disease. We find that the mutated lamin tail .domain is more compact and stable than the normal one. This altered structure and stability may enhance the association of intermediate filaments with the nuclear membrane, providing a molecular mechanism of the disease. We study the nuclear membrane association

  18. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Stedinger, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient "weighting" procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed-form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA-based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood-quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25- to 100-year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  19. A hierarchical Bayesian regional model for nonstationary precipitation extremes in Northern California conditioned on tropical moisture exports

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinschneider, Scott; Lall, Upmanu

    2015-03-01

    Warm, moist, and longitudinally confined tropical air masses are being linked to some of the most extreme precipitation and flooding events in the midlatitudes. The interannual frequency and intensity of such atmospheric rivers (ARs), or tropical moisture exports (TMEs), are connected to the risk of extreme precipitation events in areas where moisture convergence occurs. This study presents a nonstationary, regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes in Northern California that is conditioned on the interannual variability of TMEs entering the region. Parameters of a multisite peaks-over-threshold model are allowed to vary conditional on the integrated moisture delivery from TMEs over the area. Parameters are also related to time-invariant, local characteristics to facilitate regionalization to ungaged sites. The model is developed and calibrated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to support partial pooling and enhance regionalization skill. The model is cross validated along with two alternative, increasingly parsimonious formulations to assess the additional skill provided by the covariates. Climate diagnostics are also used to better understand the instances where TMEs fail to explain variations in rainfall extremes to provide a path forward for further model improvement. The modeling structure is designed to link seasonal forecasting and long-term projections of TMEs directly to regional models of extremes used for risk estimation. Results suggest that the inclusion of TME-based information greatly improves the characterization of extremes, particularly for their frequency of occurrence. Diagnostics indicate that the model could be further improved by considering an index for frontal systems as an additional covariate.

  20. Cold-water coral growth under extreme environmental conditions, the Cape Lookout area, NW Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mienis, F.; Duineveld, G. C. A.; Davies, A. J.; Lavaleye, M. M. S.; Ross, S. W.; Seim, H.; Bane, J.; van Haren, H.; Bergman, M. J. N.; de Haas, H.; Brooke, S.; van Weering, T. C. E.

    2014-05-01

    day, which is the largest temperature variability as measured so far in a cold-water coral habitat. Warm events, related to Gulf Stream meanders, had the duration of roughly 1 week and the current during these events was directed to the NNE. The consequences of such events must be significant given the strong effects of temperature on the metabolism of cold-water corals. Furthermore, elevated acoustic backscatter values and high mass fluxes were also recorded during these events, indicating a second stressor that may affect the corals. The abrasive nature of sand in combination with strong currents might sand blast the corals. We conclude that cold-water corals near Cape Lookout live under extreme conditions that limit mound growth at present.

  1. Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region.

    PubMed

    Amraoui, Malik; Pereira, Mário G; DaCamara, Carlos C; Calado, Teresa J

    2015-08-15

    Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region. PMID:25889542

  2. An Invariant-Preserving ALE Method for Solids under Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Sambasivan, Shiv Kumar; Christon, Mark A

    2012-07-17

    We are proposing a fundamentally new approach to ALE methods for solids undergoing large deformation due to extreme loading conditions. Our approach is based on a physically-motivated and mathematically rigorous construction of the underlying Lagrangian method, vector/tensor reconstruction, remapping, and interface reconstruction. It is transformational because it deviates dramatically from traditionally accepted ALE methods and provides the following set of unique attributes: (1) a three-dimensional, finite volume, cell-centered ALE framework with advanced hypo-/hyper-elasto-plastic constitutive theories for solids; (2) a new physically and mathematically consistent reconstruction method for vector/tensor fields; (3) advanced invariant-preserving remapping algorithm for vector/tensor quantities; (4) moment-of-fluid (MoF) interface reconstruction technique for multi-material problems with solids undergoing large deformations. This work brings together many new concepts, that in combination with emergent cell-centered Lagrangian hydrodynamics methods will produce a cutting-edge ALE capability and define a new state-of-the-art. Many ideas in this work are new, completely unexplored, and hence high risk. The proposed research and the resulting algorithms will be of immediate use in Eulerian, Lagrangian and ALE codes under the ASC program at the lab. In addition, the research on invariant preserving reconstruction/remap of tensor quantities is of direct interest to ongoing CASL and climate modeling efforts at LANL. The application space impacted by this work includes Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF), Z-pinch, munition-target interactions, geological impact dynamics, shock processing of powders and shaped charges. The ALE framework will also provide a suitable test-bed for rapid development and assessment of hypo-/hyper-elasto-plastic constitutive theories. Today, there are no invariant-preserving ALE algorithms for treating solids with large deformations. Therefore

  3. Reactive Force Fields Based on Quantum Mechanics for Applications to Materials at Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Duin, Adri C. T.; Zybin, Sergey V.; Chenoweth, Kimberley; Zhang, Luzheng; Han, Si-Ping; Strachan, Alejandro; Goddard, William A.

    2006-07-01

    Understanding the response of energetic materials (EM) to thermal or shock loading at the atomistic level demands a highly accurate description of the reaction dynamics of multimillion-atom systems to capture the complex chemical and mechanical behavior involved: nonequilibrium energy/mass transfer, molecule excitation and decomposition under high strain/heat rates, formation of defects, plastic flow, and phase transitions. To enable such simulations, we developed the ReaxFF reactive force fields based on quantum mechanics (QM) calculations of reactants, products, high-energy intermediates and transition states, but using functional forms suitable for large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of chemical reactions under extreme conditions. The elements of ReaxFF are: - charge distributions change instantaneously as atomic coordinates change, - all valence interactions use bond orders derived uniquely from the bond distances which in turn describe uniquely the energies and forces, - three body (angle) and four body (torsion and inversion) terms are allowed but not required, - a general "van der Waals" term describes short range Pauli repulsion and long range dispersion interactions, which with Coulomb terms are included between all pairs of atoms (no bond or angle exclusions), - no environmental distinctions are made of atoms involving the same element; thus every carbon has the same parameters whether in diamond, graphite, benzene, porphyrin, allyl radical, HMX or TATP. ReaxFF uses the same functional form and parameters for reactive simulations in hydrocarbons, polymers, metal oxides, and metal alloys, allowing mixtures of all these systems into one simulation. We will present an overview of recent progress in ReaxFF developments, including the extension of ReaxFF to nitramine-based (nitromethane, HMX) and peroxide-based (TATP) explosives. To demonstrate the versatility and transferability of ReaxFF, we also present applications to silicone polymer poly

  4. Complex layered dental restorations: Are they recognizable and do they survive extreme conditions?

    PubMed

    Soon, Alistair S; Bush, Mary A; Bush, Peter J

    2015-09-01

    Recent research has shown that restorative dental materials can be recognized by microscopy and elemental analysis (scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence; SEM/EDS and XRF) and that this is possible even in extreme conditions, such as cremation. These analytical methods and databases of dental materials properties have proven useful in DVI (disaster victim identification) of a commercial plane crash in 2009, and in a number of other victim identification cases. Dental materials appear on the market with ever expanding frequency. With their advent, newer methods of restoration have been proposed and adopted in the dental office. Methods might include placing multiple layers of dental materials, where they have different properties including adhesion, viscosity, or working time. These different dental materials include filled adhesives, flowable resins, glass ionomer cements, composite resins, liners and sealants. With possible combinations of different materials in these restorations, the forensic odontologist is now confronted with a new difficulty; how to recognize each individual material. The question might be posed if it is even possible to perform this task. Furthermore, an odontologist might be called upon to identify a victim under difficult circumstances, such as when presented with fragmented or incinerated remains. In these circumstances the ability to identify specific dental materials could assist in the identification of the deceased. Key to use of this information is whether these new materials and methods are detailed in the dental chart. Visual or radiographic inspection may not reveal the presence of a restoration, let alone the possible complex nature of that restoration. This study demonstrates another scientific method in forensic dental identification. PMID:26151675

  5. PREFACE: International Symposium on Molecular Conductors: Novel Functions of Molecular Conductors under Extreme Conditions (ISMC 2008)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Toshihiro; Suzumura, Yoshikazu

    2008-02-01

    The International Symposium on Molecular Conductors 2008 (ISMC2008) was held as the second international symposium of the project entitled `Novel Functions of Molecular Conductors under Extreme Conditions', which was supported by the Grant-in-aid for Scientific Research on Priority Areas from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Japan. The project lasted from September 2003 to March 2008, and was completed by this symposium held at Okazaki Conference Center, Institute for Molecular Science, Okazaki, Japan (23-25 July 2008), which about 100 scientists attended. During the symposium, five project teams gave summary talks and exciting talks were given on the topics developed recently not only by the members of the project but also by other scientists including invited speakers from abroad, who are doing active research on molecular conductors. It is expected that papers presented in the symposium will give valuable hints for the next step in the research of this field. Therefore the organizers of this symposium decided to publish this proceedings in order to demonstrate these activities, not only for the local community of the project, but also for the broad society of international scientists who are interested in molecular conductors. The editors, who are also the organizers of this symposium, believe that this proceedings provides a significant and relevant contribution to the field of molecular conductors since it is the first time we have published such a proceedings as an electronic journal. We note that all papers published in this volume of Journal of Physics: Conference Series have been peer reviewed by expert referees. Editors made every effort to satisfy the criterion of a proceedings journal published by IOP Publishing. Toshihiro Takahashi and Yoshikazu Suzumura Editors: Toshihiro Takahashi (Gakushuin University) (Chairman) Kazushi Kanoda (University of Tokyo) Seiichi Kagoshima (University of Tokyo) Takehiko Mori (Tokyo

  6. Extremality Conditions and Regularity of Solutions to Optimal Partition Problems Involving Laplacian Eigenvalues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Miguel; Tavares, Hugo; Terracini, Susanna

    2016-04-01

    Let {Ω subset {R}^N} be an open bounded domain and {m in {N}}. Given {k_1,ldots,k_m in {N}}, we consider a wide class of optimal partition problems involving Dirichlet eigenvalues of elliptic operators, of the following form inf{F({λ_{k1}}(ω_1),ldots,λ_{k_m}(ω_m)): (ω_1,ldots, ω_m) in {P}_m(Ω)}, where {λ_{k_i}(ω_i)} denotes the k i -th eigenvalue of {(-Δ,H10(ω_i))} counting multiplicities, and {{P}_m(Ω)} is the set of all open partitions of {Ω}, namely {P}_m(Ω)={(ω_1, ldots, ω_m):ω_i subset Ω open, ωi \\capω_j=emptyset forall i ≠ j }. While the existence of a quasi-open optimal partition {(ω_1,ldots, ω_m)} follows from a general result by Bucur, Buttazzo and Henrot [Adv Math Sci Appl 8(2):571-579, 1998], the aim of this paper is to associate with such minimal partitions and their eigenfunctions some suitable extremality conditions and to exploit them, proving as well the Lipschitz continuity of some eigenfunctions, and the regularity of the partition in the sense that the free boundary {\\cup_{i=1}^m partial ωi \\cap Ω} is, up to a residual set, locally a {C^{1,α}} hypersurface. This last result extends the ones in the paper by Caffarelli and Lin [J Sci Comput 31(1-2):5-18, 2007] to the case of higher eigenvalues.

  7. Matter under extreme conditions experiments at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glenzer, S. H.; Fletcher, L. B.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Alonso-Mori, R.; Barbrel, B.; Brown, S. B.; Chapman, D. A.; Chen, Z.; Curry, C. B.; Fiuza, F.; Gamboa, E.; Gauthier, M.; Gericke, D. O.; Gleason, A.; Goede, S.; Granados, E.; Heimann, P.; Kim, J.; Kraus, D.; MacDonald, M. J.; Mackinnon, A. J.; Mishra, R.; Ravasio, A.; Roedel, C.; Sperling, P.; Schumaker, W.; Tsui, Y. Y.; Vorberger, J.; Zastrau, U.; Fry, A.; White, W. E.; Hasting, J. B.; Lee, H. J.

    2016-05-01

    The matter in extreme conditions end station at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) is a new tool enabling accurate pump–probe measurements for studying the physical properties of matter in the high-energy density (HED) physics regime. This instrument combines the world’s brightest x-ray source, the LCLS x-ray beam, with high-power lasers consisting of two nanosecond Nd:glass laser beams and one short-pulse Ti:sapphire laser. These lasers produce short-lived states of matter with high pressures, high temperatures or high densities with properties that are important for applications in nuclear fusion research, laboratory astrophysics and the development of intense radiation sources. In the first experiments, we have performed highly accurate x-ray diffraction and x-ray Thomson scattering measurements on shock-compressed matter resolving the transition from compressed solid matter to a co-existence regime and into the warm dense matter state. These complex charged-particle systems are dominated by strong correlations and quantum effects. They exist in planetary interiors and laboratory experiments, e.g., during high-power laser interactions with solids or the compression phase of inertial confinement fusion implosions. Applying record peak brightness x-rays resolves the ionic interactions at atomic (Ångstrom) scale lengths and measure the static structure factor, which is a key quantity for determining equation of state data and important transport coefficients. Simultaneously, spectrally resolved measurements of plasmon features provide dynamic structure factor information that yield temperature and density with unprecedented precision at micron-scale resolution in dynamic compression experiments. These studies have demonstrated our ability to measure fundamental thermodynamic properties that determine the state of matter in the HED physics regime.

  8. In situ insights to Se (S) partitioning between silicate and metallic melts at extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borchert, M.; Petitgirard, S.; Appel, K.; Watenphul, A.; Morgenroth, W.

    2012-12-01

    The Earth's core mainly consists of a metallic Fe-Ni mixture. However, seismic observations show that the density is about 5-10% lower than expected for an Fe-Ni alloy under similar pressure and temperature conditions (e.g., [1,2]). This discovery initiated numerous studies to identify and quantify light elements in the Earth0s core. Among others, sulphur has been suggested to be a promisingly candidate to alloy with the metallic core because of its depletion in the crust and the mantle relative to other volatile elements by several orders of magnitude (e.g., [3-5]). In the last decades, several experimental studies have aimed to quantify the sulphur content in the Earth's core and to determine its influence on the physical properties (e.g., [6]). However, experimental data on sulphur partitioning between silicate and metallic liquids at pressures and temperatures relevant for core-mantle boundary conditions are missing. This lack is due to pressure and temperature limitations of conventional experimental approaches (up to 25 GPa and 2200 K). New developments, like laser-heated diamond-anvil cells (LDAC), allow studies at core-mantle boundary conditions, but in-situ chemical analysis of sulphur in LDACs is impossible due to the high absorption of S fluorescence in the diamonds. Instead of sulphur, selenium can be used to model sulphur partitioning between silicate and metallic melts at elevated PT conditions. This is based on the fact that sulphur and selenium can be considered as geochemical twins ([7,8]). The main advantage of this approach is the much higher excitation energy of selenium compared to sulphur, which enables in-situ XRF analysis in LDACs. Here, we present preliminary data on Se partitioning between silicate and metallic melt at extreme conditions. The experiments have been performed in double-sided laser-heated LDACs at the high pressure beamlines P02.2 (DESY, Germany) and ID27 (ESRF, France) as described in [9]. Micro-XRF mappings are used to

  9. A Quantile Regression Approach Can Reveal the Effect of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption on Plasma Homocysteine Levels

    PubMed Central

    Verly-Jr, Eliseu; Steluti, Josiane; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo

    2014-01-01

    Introduction A reduction in homocysteine concentration due to the use of supplemental folic acid is well recognized, although evidence of the same effect for natural folate sources, such as fruits and vegetables (FV), is lacking. The traditional statistical analysis approaches do not provide further information. As an alternative, quantile regression allows for the exploration of the effects of covariates through percentiles of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable. Objective To investigate how the associations of FV intake with plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) differ through percentiles in the distribution using quantile regression. Materials and Methods A cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted among 499 residents of Sao Paulo City, Brazil. The participants provided food intake and fasting blood samples. Fruit and vegetable intake was predicted by adjusting for day-to-day variation using a proper measurement error model. We performed a quantile regression to verify the association between tHcy and the predicted FV intake. The predicted values of tHcy for each percentile model were calculated considering an increase of 200 g in the FV intake for each percentile. Results The results showed that tHcy was inversely associated with FV intake when assessed by linear regression whereas, the association was different when using quantile regression. The relationship with FV consumption was inverse and significant for almost all percentiles of tHcy. The coefficients increased as the percentile of tHcy increased. A simulated increase of 200 g in the FV intake could decrease the tHcy levels in the overall percentiles, but the higher percentiles of tHcy benefited more. Conclusions This study confirms that the effect of FV intake on lowering the tHcy levels is dependent on the level of tHcy using an innovative statistical approach. From a public health point of view, encouraging people to increase FV intake would benefit people with high levels

  10. High-energy X-ray diffraction of melts and amorphous solids at extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prescher, C.; Yu, T.; Wang, Y.; Eng, P. J.; Skinner, L. B.; Stubbs, J.; Prakapenka, V.

    2015-12-01

    The structural analysis of amorphous materials, glasses and liquids at extreme conditions using X-ray diffraction is a very challenging endeavor. The samples are typically very small and surrounded by pressure vessels, which result in a huge background signal which may be orders of magnitude stronger than the actual sample signal. Furthermore, the background signal changes during compression in diamond anvil cells (DAC), making analysis of the diffraction data impossible at large pressures (>60 GPa). A key factor for obtaining high quality structural data is the maximum obtainable Q of the data collection. While at ambient conditions a maximum Q of more than 20 Å-1 has become standard, at high pressures data have been reported and analyzed with a maximum Q as low as 7 Å-1, which significantly reduces the resolution of the obtained real space data for multicomponent systems. In order to overcome those challenges, we have successfully installed a multichannel collimator (MCC) for the DAC setup at APS/GSECARS 13-IDD and for the Paris Edinburgh Press (PEP) at 13-IDC. The MCC leads to a significant increase in signal to background ratio and the background remains almost constant during compression in a DAC and removes the additional diffraction signal from the pressure media in the PEP. The combination of MCC and the high-energy X-ray optics of the 13ID beamline enables data collection of melts, glasses and amorphous materials up to 10 GPa in the PEP with a maximum Q of about 16 Å-1 and the collection of amorphous materials and glasses up to pressures above 150 GPa with a maximum Q of about 13 Å-1, thus, enabling the structural investigation of amorphous materials at much larger pressures than previously achievable. Further, we have developed several new user-friendly software packages for the analysis of X-ray diffraction data with specific data reduction and optimization algorithms for the analysis of amorphous materials at high-pressure. In order to show the

  11. Cold-water coral growth under extreme environmental conditions, the Cape Lookout area, NW Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mienis, F.; Duineveld, G.; Davies, A. J.; Lavaleye, M. J. N.; Ross, S. W.; Seim, H.; Bane, J.; van Haren, H.; Bergman, M.; de Haas, H.; Brooke, S.; van Weering, T.

    2013-12-01

    far in a cold-water coral habitat. Warm events, related to Gulf Stream meanders, had the duration of roughly one week and the current during these events was directed to the NNE. The consequences of such events must be significant given the strong effects of temperature on the metabolism of cold-water corals. Furthermore, elevated acoustic backscatter values and high mass fluxes were also recorded during these events, indicating a second stressor that may affect the corals. The abrasive nature of sand in combination with strong currents might sand blast the corals. We conclude that cold-water corals near Cape Lookout live under extreme conditions that limit mound growth at present.

  12. Effectiveness Analysis of Filters Used with Radon Detectors under Extreme Environmental Conditions for Long-term Exposures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, V.; Font, Ll.; Baixeras, C.; Garcia-Orellana, J.; Bach, J.; Grossi, C.; Vargas, A.

    Active and passive radon detectors have been exposed with different filter configurations at the INTE radon chamber controlled conditions. Correction factors and delay times of the radon diffusion through each filter have been determined. Additionally, some of the studied filter/detector configurations have been used to measure radon in several workplaces and outdoor sites under real extreme environmental conditions. Analysis of these detectors showed partial degradation, so used filters seem not to be protective enough for long-term exposures.

  13. Identifying the Drivers and Occurrence of Historical and Future Extreme Air-quality Events in the United States Using Advanced Statistical Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, W. C.; Heald, C. L.; Cooley, D. S.; Russell, B. T.

    2013-12-01

    Episodes of air-quality extremes are known to be heavily influenced by meteorological conditions, but traditional statistical analysis techniques focused on means and standard deviations may not capture important relationships at the tails of these two respective distributions. Using quantile regression (QR) and extreme value theory (EVT), methodologies specifically developed to examine the behavior of heavy-tailed phenomena, we analyze extremes in the multi-decadal record of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States. We investigate observations from the Air Quality System (AQS) and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks for connections to meteorological drivers, as provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) product. Through regional characterization by quantile behavior and EVT modeling of the meteorological covariates most responsible for extreme levels of O3 and PM2.5, we estimate pollutant exceedance frequencies and uncertainties in the United States under current and projected future climates, highlighting those meteorological covariates and interactions whose influence on air-quality extremes differs most significantly from the behavior of the bulk of the distribution. As current policy may be influenced by air-quality projections, we then compare these estimated frequencies to those produced by NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) identifying regions, covariates, and species whose extreme behavior may not be adequately captured by current models.

  14. Oxygen Loss from Venus and the Influence of Extreme Solar Wind Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McEnulty, Tess Rose

    2012-06-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to expand our understanding of oxygen ion escape to space from Venus and its dependence on extreme solar wind conditions found during interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The solar wind dynamic pressure outside of the Venus bow shock did not exceed ˜12 nPa, during 2006-2009, while the solar wind dynamic pressure was higher than this for ˜10% of the time during the PVO mission. Oxygen ions escape Venus through multiple regions near the planet. One of these regions is the magnetosheath, where high energy pick-up ions are accelerated by the solar wind convection electric field. High energy (>1 keV) O+ pick-up ions within the Venus magnetosheath reached higher energy at lower altitude when the solar wind was disturbed by ICMEs compared to pick-up ions when the external solar wind was not disturbed, between 2006-2007. However, the count rate of O+ was not obviously affected by the ICMEs during this time period. In addition to high energy pick-up ions, VEX also detects low energy (˜10-100 eV) O+ within the ionosphere and wake of Venus. These low energy oxygen ions are difficult to interpret, because the spacecraft's relative velocity and potential can significantly affect the measured energy. If VEX ion data is not corrected for the spacecraft's relative velocity and potential, gravitationally bound O+ could be misinterpreted as escaping. These gravitationally bound oxygen ions can extend on the nightside to ˜-2 Venus radii and may even return to the planet after reaching high altitudes in the wake. Gravitationally bound ions will lower the total O+ escape estimated from Venus if total escape is calculated including these ions. However, if the return flux is low compared to the total escaping outflow, this effect is not significant. An ICME with a dynamic pressure of 17.6 nPa impacted Venus on November 11, 2011. During this ICME, the high energy pick-up O+ and the low energy O+ ions were affected. Oxygen ions in the

  15. Materials response under extreme conditions: a path to materials science above 1000 GPa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remington, Bruce

    2005-07-01

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures (10-100 GPa) and strain rates (1.e6 -- 1.e8 1/s) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. [1] A quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure (shockless) drive is being developed on the Omega laser. [2] Constitutive models for solid-state strength under these conditions are tested with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples. [3] Lattice compression, phase, and temperature are deduced from extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements, from which the shock-induced alpha-omega phase transition in Ti is inferred to occur on sub-nanosec time scales. [4] Time resolved lattice response and phase can be inferred from dynamic x-ray diffraction measurements, where the elastic-plastic (1D-3D) lattice relaxation in shocked Cu is shown to occur promptly (sub-nsec). [5] Large-scale MD simulations have elucidated the microscopic dynamics that underlie the 3D lattice relaxation. [6] Deformation mechanisms, such as the slip-twinning transition in shocked single-crystal Cu, are identified by examining the residual microstructure in recovered samples. [7] Designs will be shown for reaching much higher pressures, (greater than 1000 GPa), in the solid state on the NIF laser. [8] *This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-ENG-48. [1] B.A. Remington et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2587 (2004). [2] J. Edwards et al., PRL 92, 075002 (2004). [3] K.T. Lorenz et al., PoP, in press (May, 2005). [4] B. Yaakobi et al., PRL 92, 095504 (2004). [5] A. Loveridge-Smith et al., PRL 86, 2349 (2001). [6] E.M. Bringa et al., Nature, submitted (March, 2005). [7] M.S. Schneider et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2633 (2004). [8] B.A. Remington et al., in press, ApSS 298 (July, 2005).

  16. Investigating the Effects of Simulated Space conditions on Novel Extremely Halophilic Archaea: Halovarius Luteus gen. nov., sp. nov.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feshangsaz, Niloofar; Van Loon, ing.. Jack J. W. A.; Nazmi, Kamran; Semsarha, Farid

    2016-07-01

    Studying halophiles from different environments of Earth provide new insights into our search for life in the universe. Haloarchaea show some unique characteristics and physiological adaptations like acidic proteins against harsh environments such as natural brine with salt concentration approaching saturation (5 M) and regions with low active water. These properties make haloarchaea interesting candidate for astrobiological studies. Halovarius luteus gen. nov., sp. nov. a novel extremely halophilic archaeon from Urmia salt lake, in Iran has been chosen to explore its resistance against a series of extreme conditions. The aim of this study is to assess the resistance of strain DA50T under the effects of simulated space conditions like simulated microgravity, hypergravity, and desiccation. In this paper we will discuss the results of these studies where we specifically focus on changes in carotenoid pigments production and whole cell proteome. This is the first report of very novel Iranian archaea in response to extreme space conditions. The pigments were extracted by acetone and methanol. Pigments were analyzed by scanning the absorbance spectrum in the UV-VIS spectrophotometer. And they were separated by TLC. Whole protein from cell lysate supernatant was extracted after lysis with Bacterial Protein Extraction Reagent and fractionated by RP-HPLC using C18 column. Proteome analyzed by electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE), and MALDI-TOF. Carotenoid pigments are formed under different extreme conditions such as dry environment and gravitational changes. Also the protein composition exhibits alterations after exposure to the same conditions. Our conclusion is that pigments and proteins formation depend on the growth circumstances. Halophiles use this as an adaptation to survive under different environmental conditions.

  17. Drop-box Weir for Measuring Flow Rates Under Extreme Flow Conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sediment and large rocks often are transported in runoff during extreme events. The sediment can deposit in a runoff-measuring structure and give erroneous readings. The drop-box weir (DBW) is one of only a few flow-measuring devices capable of measuring sediment-laden flows. Recent studies have ...

  18. Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Cueto, O. Rafael; Cavazos, M. Tereza; de Grau, Pamela; Santillán-Soto, Néstor

    2014-04-01

    The generalized extreme value distribution is applied in this article to model the statistical behavior of the maximum and minimum temperature distribution tails in four cities of Baja California in northwestern Mexico, using data from 1950-2010. The approach used of the maximum of annual time blocks. Temporal trends were included as covariates in the location parameter (μ), which resulted in significant improvements to the proposed models, particularly for the extreme maximum temperature values in the cities of Mexicali, Tijuana, and Tecate, and the extreme minimum temperature values in Mexicali and Ensenada. These models were used to estimate future probabilities over the next 100 years (2015-2110) for different time periods, and they were compared with changes in the extreme (P90th and P10th) percentiles of maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for a set of six general circulation models under low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiative forcings. By the end of the twenty-first century, the scenarios of the changes in extreme maximum summer temperature are of the same order in both the statistical model and the high radiative scenario (increases of 4-5 °C). The low radiative scenario is more conservative (increases of 2-3 °C). The winter scenario shows that minimum temperatures could be less severe; the temperature increases suggested by the probabilistic model are greater than those projected for the end of the century by the set of global models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The likely impacts on the region are discussed.

  19. Influence of quality control variables on failure of graphite/epoxy under extreme moisture conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clements, L. L.; Lee, P. R.

    1982-01-01

    Tension tests on graphite/epoxy composites were performed to determine the influence of various quality control variables on failure strength as a function of moisture and moderate temperatures. The extremely high and low moisture contents investigated were found to have less effect upon properties than did temperature or the quality control variables of specimen flaws and prepreg batch to batch variations. In particular, specimen flaws were found to drastically reduce the predicted strength of the composite, whereas specimens from different batches of prepreg displayed differences in strength as a function of temperature and extreme moisture exposure. The findings illustrate the need for careful specimen preparation, studies of flaw sensitvity, and careful quality control in any study of composite materials. Previously announced in STAR as N80-33493

  20. Influence of quality control variables on failure of graphite/epoxy under extreme moisture conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clements, L. L.; Lee, P. R.

    1980-01-01

    Tension tests on graphite/epoxy composites were performed to determine the influence of various quality control variables on failure strength as a function of moisture and moderate temperatures. The extremely high and low moisture contents investigated were found to have less effect upon properties than did temperature or the quality control variables of specimen flaws and prepreg batch to batch variations. In particular, specimen flaws were found to drastically reduce the predicted strength of the composite, whereas specimens from different batches of prepreg displayed differences in strength as a function of temperature and extreme moisture exposure. The findings illustrate the need for careful specimen preparation, studies of flaw sensitivity, and careful quality control in any study of composite materials.

  1. A First-Principles Multi-phase Equation of State of Carbon under Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Correa, A A; Benedict, X L; Young, D A; Schwegler, E; Bonev, S A

    2008-02-01

    We describe the construction of a multi-phase equation of state for carbon at extreme pressures based on ab initio electronic structure calculations of two solid phases (diamond and BC8) and the liquid. Solid-phase free energies are built from knowledge of the cold curves and phonon calculations, together with direct ab initio molecular dynamics calculations of the equation of state, which are used to extract anharmonic corrections to the phonon free energy. The liquid free energy is constructed based on results from molecular dynamics calculations and constraints determined from previously calculated melting curves, assuming a simple solid-like free energy model. The resulting equation of state is extended to extreme densities and temperatures with a Thomas Fermi-based free energy model. Comparisons to available experimental results are discussed.

  2. Response of shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, to extreme winter conditions in the Lower Laguna Madre, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hicks, D.W.; Onuf, C.P.; Tunnell, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    Effects of a severe freeze on the shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, were documented through analysis of temporal and spatial trends in below-ground biomass. The coincidence of the second lowest temperature (-10.6??C) in 107 years of record, 56 consecutive hours below freezing, high winds and extremely low water levels exposed the Laguna Madre, TX, to the most severe cold stress in over a century. H. wrightii tolerated this extreme freeze event. Annual pre- and post-freeze surveys indicated that below-ground biomass estimated from volume was Unaffected by the freeze event. Nor was there any post-freeze change in biomass among intertidal sites directly exposed to freezing air temperatures relative to subtidal sites which remained submerged during the freezing period.

  3. Sediment Dynamics Within Buffer Zone and Sinkhole Splay Areas Under Extreme Soil Disturbance Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoonover, Jon E.; Crim, Jackie F.; Williard, Karl W. J.; Groninger, John W.; Zaczek, James J.; Pattumma, Klairoong

    2015-09-01

    Sedimentation dynamics were assessed in sinkholes within training areas at Ft. Knox Military Installation, a karst landscape subjected to decades of tracked vehicle use and extreme soil disturbance. Sinkholes sampled were sediment-laden and behaved as intermittent ponds. Dendrogeomorphic analyses were conducted using willow trees ( Salix spp.) located around the edge of 18 sinkholes to estimate historical sedimentation rates, and buried bottles were installed in 20 sinkholes at the center, outer edge, and at the midpoint between the center and edge to estimate annual sedimentation rates. Sedimentation data were coupled with vegetation characteristics of sinkhole buffers to determine relationships among these variables. The dendrogeomorphic method estimated an average accumulation rate of 1.27 cm year-1 translating to a sediment loss rate of 46.1 metric ton year-1 from the training areas. However, sediment export to sinkholes was estimated to be much greater (118.6 metric ton year-1) via the bottle method. These data suggest that the latter method provided a more accurate estimate since accumulation was greater in the center of sinkholes compared to the periphery where dendrogeomorphic data were collected. Vegetation data were not tightly correlated with sedimentation rates, suggesting that further research is needed to identify a viable proxy for direct measures of sediment accumulation in this extreme deposition environment. Mitigation activities for the sinkholes at Ft. Knox's tank training area, and other heavily disturbed karst environments where extreme sedimentation exists, should consider focusing on flow path and splay area management.

  4. Sediment Dynamics Within Buffer Zone and Sinkhole Splay Areas Under Extreme Soil Disturbance Conditions.

    PubMed

    Schoonover, Jon E; Crim, Jackie F; Williard, Karl W J; Groninger, John W; Zaczek, James J; Pattumma, Klairoong

    2015-09-01

    Sedimentation dynamics were assessed in sinkholes within training areas at Ft. Knox Military Installation, a karst landscape subjected to decades of tracked vehicle use and extreme soil disturbance. Sinkholes sampled were sediment-laden and behaved as intermittent ponds. Dendrogeomorphic analyses were conducted using willow trees (Salix spp.) located around the edge of 18 sinkholes to estimate historical sedimentation rates, and buried bottles were installed in 20 sinkholes at the center, outer edge, and at the midpoint between the center and edge to estimate annual sedimentation rates. Sedimentation data were coupled with vegetation characteristics of sinkhole buffers to determine relationships among these variables. The dendrogeomorphic method estimated an average accumulation rate of 1.27 cm year(-1) translating to a sediment loss rate of 46.1 metric ton year(-1) from the training areas. However, sediment export to sinkholes was estimated to be much greater (118.6 metric ton year(-1)) via the bottle method. These data suggest that the latter method provided a more accurate estimate since accumulation was greater in the center of sinkholes compared to the periphery where dendrogeomorphic data were collected. Vegetation data were not tightly correlated with sedimentation rates, suggesting that further research is needed to identify a viable proxy for direct measures of sediment accumulation in this extreme deposition environment. Mitigation activities for the sinkholes at Ft. Knox's tank training area, and other heavily disturbed karst environments where extreme sedimentation exists, should consider focusing on flow path and splay area management. PMID:25975438

  5. Nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme daily precipitation amounts in Southeastern Canada using a peaks-over-threshold approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiombiano, Alida N.; El Adlouni, Salaheddine; St-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; El-Jabi, Nassir

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, a statistical inference of Southeastern Canada extreme daily precipitation amounts is proposed using a classical nonstationary peaks-over-threshold model. Indeed, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is fitted to excess time series derived from annual averages of independent precipitation amount events above a fixed threshold, the 99th percentile. Only the scale parameter of the fitted distribution is allowed to vary as a function of a covariate. This variability is modeled using B-spline function. Nonlinear correlation and cross-wavelet analysis allowed identifying two dominant climate indices as covariates in the study area, Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific North American (PNA). The nonstationary frequency analysis showed that there is an east-west behavior of the AO index effects on extreme daily precipitation amounts in the study area. Indeed, the higher quantiles of these events are conditional to the AO positive phase in Atlantic Canada, while those in the more southeastern part of Canada, especially in Southern Quebec and Ontario, are negatively related to AO. The negative phase of PNA also gives the best significant correlation in these regions. Moreover, a regression analysis between AO (PNA) index and conditional quantiles provided slope values for the positive phase of the index on the one hand and the negative phase and on the other hand. This statistic allows computing a slope ratio which permits to sustain the nonlinear relation assumption between climate indices and precipitation and the development of the nonstationary GPD model for Southeastern Canada extremes precipitation modeling.

  6. Flood risk under future climate in West Africa: linking extreme value models and flood generating processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramblay, Yves; Amoussou, Ernest; Dorigo, Wouter; Mahé, Gil

    2014-05-01

    For many areas in the world, there is a need for future projections of flood risk in order to improve the possible mitigation actions. However, such an exercise is often made difficult in data-sparse regions, where the limited access to hydrometric data does not allow calibrating hydrological models in a robust way under non-stationary conditions. In this study we present an approach to estimate the possible changes in flood risks, which incorporates flood generating processes into statistical models for extreme values. This approach is illustrated for a West African catchment, the Mono River (12900km²), with discharge, precipitation and temperature data are available between 1988 and 2010 in a few stations and where the dominant flood generating process is soil saturation. A soil moisture accounting model, calibrated against a merged surface soil moisture microwave satellite dataset, is used to estimate the annual maximum soil saturation level that is then related to the location parameter of a Generalized Extreme Value model of annual maximum discharge. With such a model, it is possible to estimate the changes in flood quantiles from the changes in the annual maximum soil saturation level. An ensemble of regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES-AMMA project are then considered to estimate the potential future changes in soil saturation and subsequently the changes in flood risks for the period 2028-2050. A sensitivity analysis of the non-stationary flood quantiles has shown that with the projected changes on precipitation (-2%) and temperature (+1.22°) under the scenario A1B, the projected flood quantiles would stay in the range of the observed variability during 1988-2010. The proposed approach, relying on low data requirements and few assumptions, could be useful to estimate the projected changes in flood risks for other data-sparse catchments.

  7. Hydrolysis and acidification of dewatered sludge under mesophilic, thermophilic and extreme thermophilic conditions: effect of pH.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiaoguang; Dong, Bin; Dai, Xiaohu

    2013-11-01

    This study investigated the effect of pH (uncontrolled, 8.0, 10.0 and 12.0) and temperature (mesophilic, thermophilic and extreme thermophilic) on hydrolysis and acidification of dewatered sludge in 7-day batch fermentation experiment. Solublization of COD, protein and carbohydrates as well as concentration and composition of VFAs were investigated. Sludge hydrolysis was enhanced with higher pH and temperature. The maximum SCOD, soluble protein and carbohydrates was observed at pH 12.0 at extreme thermophilic condition. The maximum VFAs yield was obtained at thermophilic and was 2.15 times that at mesophilic condition, but it took more time to reach the maximum. The VFAs consisted of acetic, propionic, iso-butyric, n-butyric, iso-valeric, and n-valeric acids, and acetic acid was the prevalent product in most cases except for uncontrolled pH and pH 8.0 at mesophilic condition. The methane production was as follows: pH 8.0>pH 10.0>uncontrolled (0.015)>pH 12.0; mesophilic>thermophilic>extreme thermophilic. PMID:24077155

  8. How light modifies the electron-electron interaction under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinschberger, Y.; Hervieux, P.-A.

    2015-10-01

    In the domain of extreme light-matter interactions, we show that the electron-electron interaction can be modified coherently by the electric field of the light. The latter play the role of a third partner not only acting on the electrons individually but also on their mutual interaction. By using an original formalism based on the Foldy-Wouthuysen transformation and applied to the Dirac-Breit Hamiltonian in the presence of a time-dependent electromagnetic field, we obtain analytical expressions of new three-body light-matter interactions.

  9. Recent Findings on the Mechanical Responses of Nanostructures to Extreme Loading Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Chen Zhen; Gan Yong; Shen Luming; Chen, J. K.

    2010-05-21

    A systematic investigation is being performed to understand the combined size, loading rate and thermal effects on the responses of nanostructures such as nanofilms and nanowires. This paper summarizes what has been found so far, and presents the recent molecular dynamics simulations of the mechanical behaviors of single crystal fcc nanowires and nanofilms under different temperatures and extremely high strain rates. Based on the model-based simulation results, the mechanism of the nanostructural responses will be explored and future research tasks will be discussed.

  10. Review Article: Atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayan, U.; Nissen, K.; Ulbrich, U.

    2015-11-01

    This review discusses published studies of heavy rainfall events over the Mediterranean Basin, combining them in a more general picture of the dynamic and thermodynamic factors and processes that produce heavy rain storms. It distinguishes the western and eastern Mediterranean in order to point out specific regional peculiarities. The crucial moisture for developing intensive convection over these regions can be originated not only from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea but also from distant upwind sources. Transport from remote sources is usually in the mid-tropospheric layers and associated with specific features and patterns of the larger-scale circulations. The synoptic systems (tropical and extratropical) that account for most of the major extreme precipitation events and the coupling of circulation and extreme rainfall patterns are presented. Heavy rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin is caused at times in concert by several atmospheric processes working at different atmospheric scales, such as local convection, upper synoptic-scale-level troughs, and mesoscale convective systems. Under tropical air-mass intrusions, convection generated by static instability seems to play a more important role than synoptic-scale vertical motions. Locally, the occurrence of torrential rains and their intensity is dependent on factors such as temperature profiles and implied instability, atmospheric moisture, and lower-level convergence.

  11. Review Article: Atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the Eastern and Western Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayan, U.; Nissen, K. M.; Ulbrich, U.

    2015-06-01

    This review discusses published studies of heavy rainfall events over the Mediterranean Basin, combining them in a more general picture of the dynamic and thermodynamic factors and processes producing heavy rain storms. It distinguishes the Western and Eastern Mediterranean in order to point at specific regional peculiarities. The crucial moisture for developing intensive convection over these regions can be originated not only from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea but also from distant upwind sources. Transport from remote sources is usually in the mid-tropospheric layers and associated with specific features and patterns of the larger scale circulations. The synoptic systems (tropical and extra-tropical) accounting for most of the major extreme precipitation events and the coupling of circulation and extreme rainfall patterns are presented. Heavy rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin is caused at times in concert by several atmospheric processes working at different atmospheric scales, such as local convection, upper-level synoptic-scale troughs, and meso-scale convective systems. Under tropical air mass intrusions, convection generated by static instability seems to play a more important role than synoptic-scale vertical motions. Locally, the occurrence of torrential rains and their intensity is dependent on factors such as temperature profiles and implied instability, atmospheric moisture, and lower-level convergence.

  12. Enhancing Local Climate Projections of Precipitation: Assets and Limitations of Quantile Mapping Techniques for Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, Martin; Kotlarski, Sven; Schär, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    The Swiss CH2011 scenarios provide a portfolio of climate change scenarios for the region of Switzerland, specifically tailored for use in climate impact research. Although widely applied by a variety of end-users, these scenarios are subject to several limitations related to the underlying delta change methodology. Examples are difficulties to appropriately account for changes in the spatio-temporal variability of meteorological fields and for changes in extreme events. The recently launched ELAPSE project (Enhancing local and regional climate change projections for Switzerland) is connected to the EU COST Action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) and aims at complementing CH2011 by further scenario products, including a bias-corrected version of daily scenarios at the site scale. For this purpose the well-established empirical quantile mapping (QM) methodology is employed. Here, daily temperature and precipitation output of 15 GCM-RCM model chains of the ENSEMBLES project is downscaled and bias-corrected to match observations at weather stations in Switzerland. We consider established QM techniques based on all empirical quantiles or linear interpolation between the empirical percentiles. In an attempt to improve the downscaling of extreme precipitation events, we also apply a parametric approximation of the daily precipitation distribution by a dynamically weighted mixture of a Gamma distribution for the bulk and a Pareto distribution for the right tail for the first time in the context of QM. All techniques are evaluated and intercompared in a cross-validation framework. The statistical downscaling substantially improves virtually all considered distributional and temporal characteristics as well as their spatial distribution. The empirical methods have in general very similar performances. The parametric method does not show an improvement over the empirical ones. Critical sites and seasons are highlighted and discussed. Special emphasis is placed on investigating the

  13. Quantile-Quantile Plots:. AN Approach for the Inter-Species Comparison of Promoter Architecture in Eukaryotes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldmeier, Kaspar; Kilian, Joachim; Harter, Klaus; Wanke, Dierk; Berendzen, Kenneth W.

    2011-01-01

    Regulatory non-coding DNA is important to drive gene transcription and thereby influence mRNA and consequently protein abundance. Therefore, biologists and bioinformation scientists aim to extract meaningful information from these sequence regions, in particular upstream regulation regions called promoters, and conclude on regulatory sequence function. While some approaches have been successful for single genes or a single genome, it is an open question whether information on promoter function can readily be transferred between different species. Thus, it is useful for biologists to know more about the general structure and composition of promoters including the occurrence of cisregulatory DNA-elements (CREs) to be able to compare promoter architecture between organisms. To approach this task, we utilized the fully sequenced genomes of the plant model organisms: mouse-ear cress (Arabidopsis thaliana), western balsam poplar (Populus trichocarpa), Sorghum bicolor and rice (Oryza sativa). For the interspecies comparison we made use of quantile-quantile (QQ)-plots of the variances of hexanucleotides or known functional CREs of core-promoter regions. Here, we suggest that the differences in promoter architecture correlate with the sizes of the intergenic space, i.e. regions, in which the promoters are located. In contrast, analysis of CREs is hampered by the general lack of well characterized transcription factor-CRE-relationships.

  14. Molecular basis of the structural stability of a Top7-based scaffold at extreme pH and temperature conditions.

    PubMed

    Soares, Thereza A; Boschek, Curt B; Apiyo, David; Baird, Cheryl; Straatsma, T P

    2010-06-01

    The development of stable biomolecular scaffolds that can tolerate environmental extremes has considerable potential for industrial and defense-related applications. However, most natural proteins are not sufficiently stable to withstand non-physiological conditions. We have recently engineered the de novo designed Top7 protein to specifically recognize the glycoprotein CD4 by insertion of an eight-residue loop. The engineered variant exhibited remarkable stability under chemical and thermal denaturation conditions. In the present study, far-UV CD spectroscopy and explicit-solvent MD simulations are used to investigate the structural stability of Top7 and the engineered variant under extreme conditions of temperature and pH. Circular dichroism measurements suggest that the engineered variant Top7(CB1), like Top7, retains its structure at high temperatures. Changes in CD spectra suggest that there are minor structural rearrangements between neutral and acidic environments for both proteins but that these do not make the proteins less stable at high temperatures. The anti-parallel beta-sheet is well conserved within the timescale simulated whereas there is a decrease of helical content when low pH and high-temperature conditions are combined. Concerted alanine mutations along the alpha-helices of the engineered Top7 variant did not revert this trend when at pH 2 and 400K. The structural resilience of the anti-parallel beta-sheet suggests that the protein scaffold can accommodate varying sequences. The robustness of the Top7 scaffold under extreme conditions of pH and temperature and its amenability to production in inexpensive bacterial expression systems reveal great potential for novel biotechnological applications. PMID:20185346

  15. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system. PMID:23787302

  16. Water Under the Extreme Conditions of Planetary Interiors: Symmetric Hydrogen Bonding in the Superionic Phase

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, N; Fried, L E

    2005-07-08

    The predicted superionic phase of water is investigated via ab initio molecular dynamics at densities of 2.0-3.0 g/cc (34-115 GPa) along the 2000 K isotherm. They find that extremely rapid (superionic) diffusion of protons occurs in a fluid phase at pressures between 34 and 58 GPa. A transition to a stable body-centered cubic (bcc) O lattice with superionic proton conductivity is observed between 70 and 75 GPa, a much higher pressure than suggested in prior work. They find that all molecular species at pressures greater than 75 GPa are too short lived to be classified as bound states. Above 95 GPa, a transient network phase is found characterized by symmetric O-H hydrogen bonding with nearly 50% covalent character.

  17. Equation of state density models for hydrocarbons in ultradeep reservoirs at extreme temperature and pressure conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yue; Bamgbade, Babatunde A.; Burgess, Ward A.; Tapriyal, Deepak; Baled, Hseen O.; Enick, Robert M.; McHugh, Mark A.

    2013-10-01

    The necessity of exploring ultradeep reservoirs requires the accurate prediction of hydrocarbon density data at extreme temperatures and pressures. In this study, three equations of state (EoS) models, Peng-Robinson (PR), high-temperature high-pressure volume-translated PR (HTHP VT-PR), and perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory (PC-SAFT) EoS are used to predict the density data for hydrocarbons in ultradeep reservoirs at temperatures to 523 K and pressures to 275 MPa. The calculated values are compared with experimental data. The results show that the HTHP VT-PR EoS and PC-SAFT EoS always perform better than the regular PR EoS for all the investigated hydrocarbons.

  18. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    PubMed

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model. PMID:26587364

  19. MAVEN data-model comparison of the response of heavy pick-up ions during extreme conditions at Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, Shannon; Luhmann, Janet G.; Dong, Chuanfei D.; Brain, David; Leblanc, Francois; Modolo, Ronan; Halekas, Jasper; McFadden, James; Connerney, Jack; Espley, Jared; Mitchell, David; Larson, Davin; Hara, Takuya; Jakosky, Bruce

    2015-11-01

    MAVEN has observed multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events at Mars, showing dramatic enhancements of heavy ion precipitation into the upper atmosphere. Heavy ion precipitation is the primary driver of sputtering, which is believed to be one of the main channels for atmospheric erosion during earlier epochs of our solar system when the solar activity and EUV intensities were much higher than the present day. Using MAVEN observations of extreme solar wind events, we simulate atmospheric precipitation using fluid and kinetic models and compare with MAVEN observations. The fluid model reproduces the observed features in the solar wind density, velocity and magnetic field seen along the MAVEN orbit during the March 8th ICME event, and the subsequent precipitation shows strong agreement with other published predictions of sputtering in extreme conditions.

  20. Spectral distance decay: Assessing species beta-diversity by quantile regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rocchinl, D.; Nagendra, H.; Ghate, R.; Cade, B.S.

    2009-01-01

    Remotely sensed data represents key information for characterizing and estimating biodiversity. Spectral distance among sites has proven to be a powerful approach for detecting species composition variability. Regression analysis of species similarity versus spectral distance may allow us to quantitatively estimate how beta-diversity in species changes with respect to spectral and ecological variability. In classical regression analysis, the residual sum of squares is minimized for the mean of the dependent variable distribution. However, many ecological datasets are characterized by a high number of zeroes that can add noise to the regression model. Quantile regression can be used to evaluate trend in the upper quantiles rather than a mean trend across the whole distribution of the dependent variable. In this paper, we used ordinary least square (ols) and quantile regression to estimate the decay of species similarity versus spectral distance. The achieved decay rates were statistically nonzero (p < 0.05) considering both ols and quantile regression. Nonetheless, ols regression estimate of mean decay rate was only half the decay rate indicated by the upper quantiles. Moreover, the intercept value, representing the similarity reached when spectral distance approaches zero, was very low compared with the intercepts of upper quantiles, which detected high species similarity when habitats are more similar. In this paper we demonstrated the power of using quantile regressions applied to spectral distance decay in order to reveal species diversity patterns otherwise lost or underestimated by ordinary least square regression. ?? 2009 American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing.

  1. On studentized residuals in the quantile regression framework.

    PubMed

    Ranganai, Edmore

    2016-01-01

    Although regression quantiles (RQs) are increasingly becoming popular, they are still playing a second fiddle role to the ordinary least squares estimator like their robust counterparts due to the perceived complexity of the robust statistical methodology. In order to make them attractive to statistical practitioners, an endeavor to studentize robust estimators has been undertaken by some researchers. This paper suggests two versions of RQs studentized residual statistics, namely, internally and externally studentized versions based on the elemental set method. The more preferred externally studentized version is compared to the one based on standardized median absolute deviation (MAD) of residuals using a well-known data set in the literature. While the MAD based outlier diagnostic seemed to be uniform and more aggressive to flagging outliers the RQ externally studentized one exhibited a dynamic pattern consistent with RQ results. PMID:27536515

  2. Hyperstoichiometric Oxygen in Fluorite-type U3O8 Formed at Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Fuxiang; Lang, Maik; Ewing, Rod; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Team

    2014-03-01

    U3O8 was obtained by annealing UO3 in a reducing atmosphere at 200 °C. Powder sample of β-U3O8 was pressurized at room temperature up to 37.5 GPa and XRD patterns clearly indicated that a phase transition occurred between 3-11 GPa. The high-pressure phase is a fluorite-like structure. The high-pressure phase was then laser heated to over 1700 K in the diamond anvil cell at high pressure conditions. No phase transition was found at high pressure/ temperature conditions, and the fluorite-like structure of U3O8 is even fully quenchable. The lattice parameter of the fluorite-like high-pressure phase is 5.425 Å at ambient conditions, which is smaller than that of the stoichiometric UO2. Previous experiments have shown that the stoichiometric uranium dioxide (UO2) is not stable at high pressure conditions and starts to transform to a cotunnite structure at ~ 30 GPa. When heating the sample at high pressure, the critical transition pressure is greatly reduced. However, the fluorite-like high-pressure phase of U3O8 is very stable at high pressure/high temperature conditions. The enhanced phase stability is believed to be related to the presence of extra oxygen (or U vacancies) in the structure.

  3. [Deep-sea research ground for the study of living matter properties in extreme conditions].

    PubMed

    Polikarpov, G G

    2011-01-01

    The Black Sea hollow bottom is a promising research ground in the field of deep-sea radiochemoecology and exobiology. It has turned out to be at the intersection of the earth and cosmic scientific interests such as deep-sea marine radiochemoecology from the perspective of the study of extreme biogeocenological properties of the Earth biosphere and exobiology from the standpoint of the study of life phenomena (living matter) outside the Earth biosphere, i.e. on other planets and during hypothetical transfer of spores in the outer space. The potential of this ground is substantiated with the data published by the author and co-workers on accumulation of 90Sr, 137Cs and Pu isotopes with silts of bathyal pelo-contour, on the quality of deep-sea hydrogen sulphide waters (after their contact with air) for vital functions of planktonic and benthic aerobes, as well as the species composition of marine, freshwater and terrestrial plants grown from the spores collected from the bottom sediments of the Black Sea bathyal. Discussion was based on V.I. Vernadsky's ideas about the living matter and biosphere, which allowed conclusions about the biospheric and outer space role of the described phenomena. PMID:22279770

  4. [ASSESSMENT OF EXTREME FACTORS OF SHIFT WORK IN ARCTIC CONDITIONS BY WORKERS WITH DIFFERENT REGULATORY PROCESSES].

    PubMed

    Korneeva, Ya A; Simonova, N N

    2016-01-01

    A man working on a shift basis in the Arctic, every day is under the influence of various extreme factors which are inevitable for oil and gas indudtry. To adapt to shift work employees use various resources of the individual. The purpose of research is the determination of personal resources of shift workers to overcome the adverse factors of the environment in the Arctic. The study involved 191 builder of main gas pipelines, working in shifts in the Tyumen region (the length of the shift 52 days of arrival) at the age of 23 to 59 (mean age 34.9 ± 8.1) years. Methods: psychological testing, questioning, observation, descriptive statistics, discriminant step by step analysis. There was revealed the correlation between the subjective assessment of the majority of adverse climatic factors in the regulatory process "assessment of results"; production factors--regulatory processes such as flexibility, autonomy, simulation, and the general level of self-regulation; social factors are more associated with the severity of such regulatory processes, flexibility and evaluation of results. PMID:27430072

  5. Halophilic archaea on Earth and in space: growth and survival under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Oren, Aharon

    2014-12-13

    Salts are abundant on Mars, and any liquid water that is present or may have been present on the planet is expected to be hypersaline. Halophilic archaea (family Halobacteriaceae) are the microorganisms best adapted to life at extremes of salinity on Earth. This paper reviews the properties of the Halobacteriaceae that may make the group good candidates for life also on Mars. Many species resist high UV and gamma radiation levels; one species has survived exposure to vacuum and radiation during a space flight; and there is at least one psychrotolerant species. Halophilic archaea may survive for millions of years within brine inclusions in salt crystals. Many species have different modes of anaerobic metabolism, and some can use light as an energy source using the light-driven proton pump bacteriorhodopsin. They are also highly tolerant to perchlorate, recently shown to be present in Martian soils, and some species can even use perchlorate as an electron acceptor to support anaerobic growth. The presence of characteristic carotenoid pigments (α-bacterioruberin and derivatives) makes the Halobacteriaceae easy to identify by Raman spectroscopy. Thus, if present on Mars, such organisms may be detected by Raman instrumentation planned to explore Mars during the upcoming ExoMars mission. PMID:25368347

  6. Carbon under extreme conditions: phase boundaries and electronic properties from first-principles theory.

    PubMed

    Correa, Alfredo A; Bonev, Stanimir A; Galli, Giulia

    2006-01-31

    At high pressure and temperature, the phase diagram of elemental carbon is poorly known. We present predictions of diamond and BC8 melting lines and their phase boundary in the solid phase, as obtained from first-principles calculations. Maxima are found in both melting lines, with a triple point located at approximately 850 GPa and approximately 7,400 K. Our results show that hot, compressed diamond is a semiconductor that undergoes metalization upon melting. In contrast, in the stability range of BC8, an insulator to metal transition is likely to occur in the solid phase. Close to the diamond/liquid and BC8/liquid boundaries, molten carbon is a low-coordinated metal retaining some covalent character in its bonding up to extreme pressures. Our results provide constraints on the carbon equation of state, which is of critical importance for devising models of Neptune, Uranus, and white dwarf stars, as well as of extrasolar carbon-rich planets. PMID:16432191

  7. Assessing Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Conditions over Greece: An Investigation of their Links with Circulation Types.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolika, K.; Anangostopoulou, C.; Tegoulias, I.; Vafiadis, M.

    2010-09-01

    The relationship between the extreme precipitation events and the prevailing circulation types during their occurrence is analyzed in the present study, for four of the biggest cities in Greece (Athens, Thessaloniki, Patra and Heraklio). Daily precipitation data covering the time period 1958-2000 are utilized and the extreme rainfall events are defined using the 95% percentile index. A new automatic classification was applied for the computation of the daily calendar of the circulation types. The main improvements of this classification are the number of the circulation types, which are reduced now to twelve (12) and the fact that the scheme is flexible all over the Mediterranean. The 500hPa geopotential data (2.5 o x 2.5o spatial resolution) from the NCEP/NCAR were employed, covering a large spatial window over the whole European region, for the development of the daily circulation type’s calendar. From the first results of the study it was found that two cyclonic types were the prevailing ones during extreme rainfall conditions. Further more grid point daily precipitation data (the ones closer to the four stations) derived from the most updated regional climate models were also applied in the study for a reference period 1961-1990. The simulated extreme precipitation events were evaluated in comparison to the observational data and a new circulation type calendar was computed this time using the RCMs 500hPa data. Overall, changes both in the magnitude and in the frequency of occurrence of the extreme events were detected. The final goal of the study was to asses the future changes of rainfall extremes as well as the changes of their links with the circulation types as a consequence of the enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations until the end of the 21st century. The aforementioned methodology was applied using the RCM output, both daily precipitation and geopotentials at 500hPa level, (forced by the emission scenario A1B), for the last thirty years of the

  8. Phase Transformation of U3O8 and Enhanced Structural Stability at Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Fuxiang; Lang, Maik; Ewing, Rodney

    2013-06-01

    A powder sample of β-U3O8 was pressurized at room temperature up to 37.5 GPa with a symmetric diamond anvil cell. XRD patterns clearly indicated that a phase transition occurred between 3-11 GPa. The high-pressure phase is a fluorite-like structure. The fluorite-like structure is stable up to 37.5 GPa. The high-pressure phase was then laser heated to over 1700 K in the diamond anvil cell at high pressure conditions. No phase transition was found at high pressure/ temperature conditions, and the fluorite-like structure of U3O8 is even fully quenchable. The lattice parameter of the fluorite-like high-pressure phase is 5.425 Å at ambient conditions, which is smaller than that of the stoichiometric UO2. Previous experiments have shown that the stoichiometric uranium dioxide (UO2) is not stable at high pressure conditions and starts to transform to a cotunnite structure at ~30 GPa. When heating the sample at high pressure, the critical transtion pressure is greatly reduced. However, the fluorite-like high-pressure phase of U3O8 is very stable at high pressure/high temperature conditions. The enhanced phase stability is believed to be related to the presence of extra oxygen (or U vacancies) in the structure. This work was supported by Materials Science of Actinides, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, under Award No. DE-SC0001089.

  9. Width and extremal height distributions of fluctuating interfaces with window boundary conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrasco, I. S. S.; Oliveira, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    We present a detailed study of squared local roughness (SLRDs) and local extremal height distributions (LEHDs), calculated in windows of lateral size l , for interfaces in several universality classes, in substrate dimensions ds=1 and 2. We show that their cumulants follow a Family-Vicsek-type scaling, and, at early times, when ξ ≪l (ξ is the correlation length), the rescaled SLRDs are given by log-normal distributions, with their n th cumulant scaling as (ξ/l ) (n -1 ) ds. This gives rise to an interesting temporal scaling for such cumulants as [2 n +(n -1 ) ds/α >]wnc˜tγn , with γn=2 n β +(n -1 ) ds /z = β. This scaling is analytically proved for the Edwards-Wilkinson (EW) and random deposition interfaces and numerically confirmed for other classes. In general, it is featured by small corrections, and, thus, it yields exponents γn (and, consequently, α ,β and z ) in good agreement with their respective universality class. Thus, it is a useful framework for numerical and experimental investigations, where it is usually hard to estimate the dynamic z and mainly the (global) roughness α exponents. The stationary (for ξ ≫l ) SLRDs and LEHDs of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) class are also investigated, and, for some models, strong finite-size corrections are found. However, we demonstrate that good evidence of their universality can be obtained through successive extrapolations of their cumulant ratios for long times and large l . We also show that SLRDs and LEHDs are the same for flat and curved KPZ interfaces.

  10. Growth Curves of Preschool Children in the Northeast of Iran: A Population Based Study Using Quantile Regression Approach

    PubMed Central

    Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Growth charts are widely used to assess children’s growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. Methods: A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. Results: The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children’s weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. Conclusion: The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn’t require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values. PMID:23618470

  11. Extreme Hydrothermal Conditions Near an Active Geological Fault, DFDP-2B Borehole, Alpine Fault, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutherland, R.; Townend, J.; Toy, V.; Allen, M.; Baratin, L. M.; Barth, N. C.; Beacroft, L.; Benson, A.; Boese, C. M.; Boles, A.; Boulton, C. J.; Capova, L.; Carpenter, B. M.; Celerier, B. P.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Conze, R.; Cooper, A.; Coussens, J.; Coutts, A.; Cox, S.; Craw, L.; Doan, M. L.; Eccles, J. D.; Faulkner, D.; Grieve, J.; Grochowski, J.; Gulley, A.; Henry, G.; Howarth, J. D.; Jacobs, K. M.; Jeppson, T.; Kato, N.; Keys, S.; Kirilova, M.; Kometani, Y.; Lukács, A.; Langridge, R.; Lin, W.; Little, T.; Mallyon, D.; Mariani, E.; Marx, R.; Massiot, C.; Mathewson, L.; Melosh, B.; Menzies, C. D.; Moore, J.; Morales, L. F. G.; Morgan, C.; Mori, H.; Niemeijer, A. R.; Nishikawa, O.; Nitsch, O.; Paris Cavailhes, J.; Pooley, B.; Prior, D. J.; Pyne, A.; Sauer, K. M.; Savage, M. K.; Schleicher, A.; Schmitt, D. R.; Shigematsu, N.; Taylor-Offord, S.; Tobin, H. J.; Upton, P.; Valdez, R. D.; Weaver, K.; Wiersberg, T.; Williams, J. N.; Yeo, S.; Zimmer, M.; Broderick, N.

    2015-12-01

    The DFDP-2B borehole sampled rocks above and within the upper part of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand, to a depth of 893 m in late 2014. The experiment was the first to drill a major geological fault zone that is active and late in its earthquake cycle. We determined ambient fluid pressures 8-10% above hydrostatic and a geothermal gradient of 130-150 °C/km in rocks above the fault. These unusual ambient conditions can be explained by a combination of: rock advection that transports heat from depth by uplift and oblique slip on the fault; and fluid advection through fractured rock, driven by topographic forcing, which concentrates heat and causes fluid over-pressure in the valley. Highly-anomalous ambient conditions can exist in the vicinity of active faults, and earthquake and mineralization processes occur within these zones.

  12. EFFECTS OF EXTREME AND UNUSUAL CONDITIONS ON LANA ALLOYS: INTERIM REPORT, FY14 (U)

    SciTech Connect

    Shanahan, Kirk L.

    2014-04-25

    The TTP proposed research aimed at determining: a) the rate at which these changes occurred and the effect of initial conditions, especially in the early phases of Hydrogen Heat Treatment (HHT), b) whether or not different LANA alloys would show similar effects, and c) whether common contaminants/poisons impacted LANA alloy hydride chemistry similarly to what had been found for Pd and Pd-alloy hydride chemistry.

  13. Hyper-dry conditions provide new insights into the cause of extreme floods after wildfire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moody, John A.; Ebel, Brian A.

    2012-01-01

    A catastrophic wildfire in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains near Boulder, Colorado provided a unique opportunity to investigate soil conditions immediately after a wildfire and before alteration by rainfall. Measurements of near-surface (θ; and matric suction, ψ), rainfall, and wind velocity were started 8 days after the wildfire began. These measurements established that hyper-dryconditions (θ 3 cm-3; ψ > ~ 3 x 105 cm) existed and provided an in-situ retention curve for these conditions. These conditions exacerbate the effects of water repellency (natural and fire-induced) and limit the effectiveness of capillarity and gravity driven infiltration into fire-affected soils. The important consequence is that given hyper-dryconditions, the critical rewetting process before the first rain is restricted to the diffusion–adsorption of water-vapor. This process typically has a time scale of days to weeks (especially when the hydrologic effects of the ash layer are included) that is longer than the typical time scale (minutes to hours) of some rainstorms, such that under hyper-dryconditions essentially no rain infiltrates. The existence of hyper-dryconditions provides insight into why, frequently during the first rain storm after a wildfire, nearly all rainfall becomes runoff causing extremefloods and debris flows.

  14. Extreme Hypoxic Conditions Induce Selective Molecular Responses and Metabolic Reset in Detached Apple Fruit.

    PubMed

    Cukrov, Dubravka; Zermiani, Monica; Brizzolara, Stefano; Cestaro, Alessandro; Licausi, Francesco; Luchinat, Claudio; Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Van Veen, Hans; Zuccolo, Andrea; Ruperti, Benedetto; Tonutti, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    The ripening physiology of detached fruit is altered by low oxygen conditions with profound effects on quality parameters. To study hypoxia-related processes and regulatory mechanisms, apple (Malus domestica, cv Granny Smith) fruit, harvested at commercial ripening, were kept at 1°C under normoxic (control) and hypoxic (0.4 and 0.8 kPa oxygen) conditions for up to 60 days. NMR analyses of cortex tissue identified eight metabolites showing significantly different accumulations between samples, with ethanol and alanine displaying the most pronounced difference between hypoxic and normoxic treatments. A rapid up-regulation of alcohol dehydrogenase and pyruvate-related metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase, pyruvate decarboxylase, alanine aminotransferase) gene expression was detected under both hypoxic conditions with a more pronounced effect induced by the lowest (0.4 kPa) oxygen concentration. Both hypoxic conditions negatively affected ACC synthase and ACC oxidase transcript accumulation. Analysis of RNA-seq data of samples collected after 24 days of hypoxic treatment identified more than 1000 genes differentially expressed when comparing 0.4 vs. 0.8 kPa oxygen concentration samples. Genes involved in cell-wall, minor and major CHO, amino acid and secondary metabolisms, fermentation and glycolysis as well as genes involved in transport, defense responses, and oxidation-reduction appeared to be selectively affected by treatments. The lowest oxygen concentration induced a higher expression of transcription factors belonging to AUX/IAA, WRKY, HB, Zinc-finger families, while MADS box family genes were more expressed when apples were kept under 0.8 kPa oxygen. Out of the eight group VII ERF members present in apple genome, two genes showed a rapid up-regulation under hypoxia, and western blot analysis showed that apple MdRAP2.12 proteins were differentially accumulated in normoxic and hypoxic samples, with the highest level reached under 0.4 kPa oxygen. These data suggest

  15. Extreme Hypoxic Conditions Induce Selective Molecular Responses and Metabolic Reset in Detached Apple Fruit

    PubMed Central

    Cukrov, Dubravka; Zermiani, Monica; Brizzolara, Stefano; Cestaro, Alessandro; Licausi, Francesco; Luchinat, Claudio; Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Van Veen, Hans; Zuccolo, Andrea; Ruperti, Benedetto; Tonutti, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    The ripening physiology of detached fruit is altered by low oxygen conditions with profound effects on quality parameters. To study hypoxia-related processes and regulatory mechanisms, apple (Malus domestica, cv Granny Smith) fruit, harvested at commercial ripening, were kept at 1°C under normoxic (control) and hypoxic (0.4 and 0.8 kPa oxygen) conditions for up to 60 days. NMR analyses of cortex tissue identified eight metabolites showing significantly different accumulations between samples, with ethanol and alanine displaying the most pronounced difference between hypoxic and normoxic treatments. A rapid up-regulation of alcohol dehydrogenase and pyruvate-related metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase, pyruvate decarboxylase, alanine aminotransferase) gene expression was detected under both hypoxic conditions with a more pronounced effect induced by the lowest (0.4 kPa) oxygen concentration. Both hypoxic conditions negatively affected ACC synthase and ACC oxidase transcript accumulation. Analysis of RNA-seq data of samples collected after 24 days of hypoxic treatment identified more than 1000 genes differentially expressed when comparing 0.4 vs. 0.8 kPa oxygen concentration samples. Genes involved in cell-wall, minor and major CHO, amino acid and secondary metabolisms, fermentation and glycolysis as well as genes involved in transport, defense responses, and oxidation-reduction appeared to be selectively affected by treatments. The lowest oxygen concentration induced a higher expression of transcription factors belonging to AUX/IAA, WRKY, HB, Zinc-finger families, while MADS box family genes were more expressed when apples were kept under 0.8 kPa oxygen. Out of the eight group VII ERF members present in apple genome, two genes showed a rapid up-regulation under hypoxia, and western blot analysis showed that apple MdRAP2.12 proteins were differentially accumulated in normoxic and hypoxic samples, with the highest level reached under 0.4 kPa oxygen. These data suggest

  16. Explosive Chemistry: Simulating the Chemistry of Energetic Materials at Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, E J; Manaa, M R; Fried, L E

    2003-11-18

    In the brief instant of a high-explosive detonation, the shock wave produces a pressure 500,000 times that of the Earth's atmosphere, the detonation wave travels as fast as 10 kilometers per second, and internal temperatures soar up to 5,500 Kelvin. As the shock propagates through the energetic material, the rapid heating coupled with compression that results in almost 30% volume reduction, initiate complex chemical reactions. A dense, highly reactive supercritical fluid is established behind the propagating detonation front. Energy release from the exothermic chemical reactions serve in turn to drive and sustain the detonation process until complete reactivity is reached. Several experimental results suggest the existence of strong correlations between the applied mechanical stress and shocks, the local heterogeneity and defects (dislocations, vacancies, cracks, impurities, etc.), and the onset of chemical reactions. The reaction chemistry of energetic materials at high pressure and temperature is, therefore, of considerable importance in understanding processes that these materials experience under impact and detonation conditions. Chemical decomposition models are critical ingredients in order to predict, among other things, the measured times to explosion and the conditions for ignition of hot spots, localized regions of highly concentrated energy associated with defects. To date, chemical kinetic rates of condense-phase energetic materials at detonation conditions are virtually non-existent, and basic questions such as: (a) which bond in a given energetic molecule breaks first, and (b) what type of chemical reactions (unimolecular versus bimolecular, etc.) that dominate early in the decomposition process, are still largely unknown.

  17. Southern giant Petrel Macronectes giganteus nest attendance patterns under extreme weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Schulz, Uwe Horst; Krüger, Lucas; Petry, Maria Virginia

    2014-08-01

    Differences in nest attendance between genders in seabirds may be related to morphological differences. Southern giant petrel is a dimorphic species with gender-specific foraging behavior. The objective of this study was to investigate sex-related differences in nest attendance during the breeding period of southern giant petrels by presence/absence patterns of both sexes during incubation and compare use of the colony after nest failure. Fourteen birds were tagged with digitally coded radio-transmitters in a colony at Elephant Island, Antarctica, in the beginning of 2009/2010 breeding season. Females were present during 18 periods (min. 3 days, max. 9 days) and males only in five periods (min. 2 days, max. 13 days). The difference in mean number of radio signals per day between females (4330; s.e. 313.5) and males (2691; s.e. 248.6) was highly significant (t = 4.3; d.f. = 199; P < 0.001; Fig. 4 ). As consequence of the severe weather conditions that year, all tagged birds failed to reproduce. After abandonment of the nests, the presence of both genders decreased drastically, although the tagged individuals stayed in the area. Under severe weather conditions female Southern Giant Petrels continue breeding while males abandon the nest earlier. PMID:25088590

  18. Dielectric properties of water under extreme conditions and transport of carbonates in the deep Earth

    PubMed Central

    Pan, Ding; Spanu, Leonardo; Harrison, Brandon; Sverjensky, Dimitri A.; Galli, Giulia

    2013-01-01

    Water is a major component of fluids in the Earth’s mantle, where its properties are substantially different from those at ambient conditions. At the pressures and temperatures of the mantle, experiments on aqueous fluids are challenging, and several fundamental properties of water are poorly known; e.g., its dielectric constant has not been measured. This lack of knowledge of water dielectric properties greatly limits our ability to model water–rock interactions and, in general, our understanding of aqueous fluids below the Earth’s crust. Using ab initio molecular dynamics, we computed the dielectric constant of water under the conditions of the Earth’s upper mantle, and we predicted the solubility products of carbonate minerals. We found that MgCO3 (magnesite)—insoluble in water under ambient conditions—becomes at least slightly soluble at the bottom of the upper mantle, suggesting that water may transport significant quantities of oxidized carbon. Our results suggest that aqueous carbonates could leave the subducting lithosphere during dehydration reactions and could be injected into the overlying lithosphere. The Earth’s deep carbon could possibly be recycled through aqueous transport on a large scale through subduction zones. PMID:23513225

  19. Helium bubble formation in ultrafine and nanocrystalline tungsten under different extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    El-atwani, O.; Hattar, Khalid Mikhiel; Hinks, J. A.; Greaves, G.; Harilal, S. S.; Hassanein, A.

    2014-12-25

    We investigated the effects of helium ion irradiation energy and sample temperature on the performance of grain boundaries as helium sinks in ultrafine grained and nanocrystalline tungsten. Irradiations were performed at displacement and non-displacement energies and at temperatures above and below that required for vacancy migration. Microstructural investigations were performed using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) combined with either in-situ or ex-situ ion irradiation. Under helium irradiation at an energy which does not cause atomic displacements in tungsten (70 eV), regardless of temperature and thus vacancy migration conditions, bubbles were uniformly distributed with no preferential bubble formation on grain boundaries. Moreover, at energies that can cause displacements, bubbles were observed to be preferentially formed on the grain boundaries only at high temperatures where vacancy migration occurs. Under these conditions, the decoration of grain boundaries with large facetted bubbles occurred on nanocrystalline grains with dimensions less than 60 nm. Finally, we discuss the importance of vacancy supply and the formation and migration of radiation-induced defects on the performance of grain boundaries as helium sinks and the resulting irradiation tolerance of ultrafine grained and nanocrystalline tungsten to bubble formation.

  20. Helium bubble formation in ultrafine and nanocrystalline tungsten under different extreme conditions

    DOE PAGESBeta

    El-atwani, O.; Hattar, Khalid Mikhiel; Hinks, J. A.; Greaves, G.; Harilal, S. S.; Hassanein, A.

    2014-12-25

    We investigated the effects of helium ion irradiation energy and sample temperature on the performance of grain boundaries as helium sinks in ultrafine grained and nanocrystalline tungsten. Irradiations were performed at displacement and non-displacement energies and at temperatures above and below that required for vacancy migration. Microstructural investigations were performed using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) combined with either in-situ or ex-situ ion irradiation. Under helium irradiation at an energy which does not cause atomic displacements in tungsten (70 eV), regardless of temperature and thus vacancy migration conditions, bubbles were uniformly distributed with no preferential bubble formation on grain boundaries. Moreover,more » at energies that can cause displacements, bubbles were observed to be preferentially formed on the grain boundaries only at high temperatures where vacancy migration occurs. Under these conditions, the decoration of grain boundaries with large facetted bubbles occurred on nanocrystalline grains with dimensions less than 60 nm. Finally, we discuss the importance of vacancy supply and the formation and migration of radiation-induced defects on the performance of grain boundaries as helium sinks and the resulting irradiation tolerance of ultrafine grained and nanocrystalline tungsten to bubble formation.« less

  1. Helium bubble formation in ultrafine and nanocrystalline tungsten under different extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Atwani, O.; Hattar, K.; Hinks, J. A.; Greaves, G.; Harilal, S. S.; Hassanein, A.

    2015-03-01

    We have investigated the effects of helium ion irradiation energy and sample temperature on the performance of grain boundaries as helium sinks in ultrafine grained and nanocrystalline tungsten. Irradiations were performed at displacement and non-displacement energies and at temperatures above and below that required for vacancy migration. Microstructural investigations were performed using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) combined with either in-situ or ex-situ ion irradiation. Under helium irradiation at an energy which does not cause atomic displacements in tungsten (70 eV), regardless of temperature and thus vacancy migration conditions, bubbles were uniformly distributed with no preferential bubble formation on grain boundaries. At energies that can cause displacements, bubbles were observed to be preferentially formed on the grain boundaries only at high temperatures where vacancy migration occurs. Under these conditions, the decoration of grain boundaries with large facetted bubbles occurred on nanocrystalline grains with dimensions less than 60 nm. We discuss the importance of vacancy supply and the formation and migration of radiation-induced defects on the performance of grain boundaries as helium sinks and the resulting irradiation tolerance of ultrafine grained and nanocrystalline tungsten to bubble formation.

  2. Microbial mediated formation of Fe-carbonate minerals under extreme acidic conditions

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez-Román, Mónica; Fernández-Remolar, David; Amils, Ricardo; Sánchez-Navas, Antonio; Schmid, Thomas; Martin-Uriz, Patxi San; Rodríguez, Nuria; McKenzie, Judith A.; Vasconcelos, Crisogono

    2014-01-01

    Discovery of Fe-carbonate precipitation in Rio Tinto, a shallow river with very acidic waters, situated in Huelva, South-western Spain, adds a new dimension to our understanding of carbonate formation. Sediment samples from this low-pH system indicate that carbonates are formed in physico-chemical conditions ranging from acid to neutral pH. Evidence for microbial mediation is observed in secondary electron images (Fig. 1), which reveal rod-shaped bacteria embedded in the surface of siderite nanocrystals. The formation of carbonates in Rio Tinto is related to the microbial reduction of ferric iron coupled to the oxidation of organic compounds. Herein, we demonstrate for the first time, that Acidiphilium sp. PM, an iron-reducing bacterium isolated from Rio Tinto, mediates the precipitation of siderite (FeCO3) under acidic conditions and at a low temperature (30°C). We describe nucleation of siderite on nanoglobules in intimate association with the bacteria cell surface. This study has major implications for understanding carbonate formation on the ancient Earth or extraterrestrial planets. PMID:24755961

  3. Modulation of Pleurodeles waltl DNA polymerase mu expression by extreme conditions encountered during spaceflight.

    PubMed

    Schenten, Véronique; Guéguinou, Nathan; Baatout, Sarah; Frippiat, Jean-Pol

    2013-01-01

    DNA polymerase µ is involved in DNA repair, V(D)J recombination and likely somatic hypermutation of immunoglobulin genes. Our previous studies demonstrated that spaceflight conditions affect immunoglobulin gene expression and somatic hypermutation frequency. Consequently, we questioned whether Polμ expression could also be affected. To address this question, we characterized Polμ of the Iberian ribbed newt Pleurodeles waltl and exposed embryos of that species to spaceflight conditions or to environmental modifications corresponding to those encountered in the International Space Station. We noted a robust expression of Polμ mRNA during early ontogenesis and in the testis, suggesting that Polμ is involved in genomic stability. Full-length Polμ transcripts are 8-9 times more abundant in P. waltl than in humans and mice, thereby providing an explanation for the somatic hypermutation predilection of G and C bases in amphibians. Polμ transcription decreases after 10 days of development in space and radiation seem primarily involved in this down-regulation. However, space radiation, alone or in combination with a perturbation of the circadian rhythm, did not affect Polμ protein levels and did not induce protein oxidation, showing the limited impact of radiation encountered during a 10-day stay in the International Space Station. PMID:23936065

  4. Estimation of predictive hydrologic uncertainty using quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogulu, N.; López López, P.; Solomatine, D. P.; Weerts, A. H.; Shrestha, D. L.

    2014-09-01

    In operational hydrology, estimation of predictive uncertainty of hydrological models used for flood modelling is essential for risk based decision making for flood warning and emergency management. In the literature, there exists a variety of methods analyzing and predicting uncertainty. However, case studies comparing performance of these methods, most particularly predictive uncertainty methods, are limited. This paper focuses on two predictive uncertainty methods that differ in their methodological complexity: quantile regression (QR) and UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering (UNEEC), aiming at identifying possible advantages and disadvantages of these methods (both estimating residual uncertainty) based on their comparative performance. We test these two methods on several catchments (from UK) that vary in its hydrological characteristics and models. Special attention is given to the errors for high flow/water level conditions. Furthermore, normality of model residuals is discussed in view of clustering approach employed within the framework of UNEEC method. It is found that basin lag time and forecast lead time have great impact on quantification of uncertainty (in the form of two quantiles) and achievement of normality in model residuals' distribution. In general, uncertainty analysis results from different case studies indicate that both methods give similar results. However, it is also shown that UNEEC method provides better performance than QR for small catchments with changing hydrological dynamics, i.e. rapid response catchments. We recommend that more case studies of catchments from regions of distinct hydrologic behaviour, with diverse climatic conditions, and having various hydrological features be tested.

  5. Changing pattern of natural hazards due to extreme hydro-meteorological conditions (Apulia, southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polemio, Maurizio; Lonigro, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    Recent international researches have underlined the evidences of climate changes throughout the world. Among the consequences of climate change, there is the increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, such as droughts, windstorms, heat waves, landslides, floods and secondary floods (i.e. rapid accumulation or pounding of surface water with very low flow velocity). The Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) can be defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous aforementioned phenomena causing damages. They represent a serious problem, especially in DHE-prone areas with growing urbanisation. In these areas the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events could be related to climate variations and/or urban development. The historical analysis of DHEs can support decision making and land-use planning, ultimately reducing natural risks. The paper proposes a methodology, based on both historical and time series approaches, used for describing the influence of climatic variability on the number of phenomena observed. The historical approach is finalised to collect phenomenon historical data. The historical flood and landslide data are important for the comprehension of the evolution of a study area and for the estimation of risk scenarios as a basis for civil protection purposes. Phenomenon historical data is useful for expanding the historical period of investigation in order to assess the occurrence trend of DHEs. The time series approach includes the collection and the statistical analysis of climatic and rainfall data (monthly rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature data together with the annual maximum of short-duration rainfall data, from 1 hour to 5 days), which are also used as a proxy for floods and landslides. The climatic and rainfall data are useful to characterise the climate variations and trends and to roughly assess the effects of these trends on river discharge and on the triggering of landslides. The time

  6. Effect of preharvest anti-fungal compounds on Aspergillus steynii and A. carbonarius under fluctuating and extreme environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    García-Cela, E; Gil-Serna, J; Marín, S; Acevedo, H; Patiño, B; Ramos, A J

    2012-10-01

    Ochratoxin A (OTA) has been found in pre-harvest and freshly harvested wheat. Spanish climatic conditions point to Aspergillus species as probably responsible for this OTA. In this study the effectiveness of 5 non-specific antifungal chemicals used on wheat fields (25.9% tebuconazole+60.0% N,N-capramide dimethyl; 12.70% tebuconazole+12.7% prothioconazole+59.5% N,N-amide dimethyldecane; 12.5% epoxiconazole; 12.5% tetraconazole; and 70% thiophanate methyl) and an extract from Equisetum arvense were investigated in vitro on wheat by recording growth (colony size, fungal growth and DNA concentration) and OTA production of two ochratoxigenic isolates of Aspergillus carbonarius and three of A. steynii, simulating current and extreme climatic conditions. Inoculated wheat was incubated under two alternating temperature cycles (20/30°C and 25/35°C) with photoperiod (14/10h lightness/darkness), and two moisture levels (40 and 25%). The Aspergillus species tested seemed to be able to persist in predicted future climatic conditions, in particular, A. steynii, a high OTA producer. Azoles were effective in controlling the growth of A. carbonarius and A. steynii, and this effectiveness may not be compromised by the increase in temperature and decrease of humidity. However, azoles are not useful for the prevention of OTA accumulation, which could be only reduced in A. carbonarius under non-extreme conditions. Although some adjustment will probably be required, further studies should be conducted in the field, since the antifungals used in this study are applied at flowering and not directly on the grain. Moreover, timing of antifungal application may need to be optimized. Finally, Equisetum extract showed promising results as an antifungal, however further work to adjust the applied concentrations is required. PMID:22947301

  7. Does the shift to higher capacities for isoprene emission at extreme temperatures in some oak species reflect acclimation to extreme drought and high temperature conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barta, C.; Gramann, J. H.; White, S. L.; Schade, G. W.

    2013-12-01

    Isoprene emission from the vegetation accounts for a substantial fraction of assimilated carbon and is an important biosphere-atmosphere interaction, being a key constraint to the chemical properties of the troposphere. Isoprene synthesis is controlled by isoprene synthase and is connected to photosynthesis through production of precursor metabolites, while subsequent emission is affected by the physical environment and is altered by exposure to environmental stress. An intricate, yet not completely understood balance exists between the impact of isoprene on the atmosphere and the feedback of global change on the eco-physiology of vegetation that defines future emission potentials, affecting to a yet unknown extent future isoprene emissions. To address the nature of these interactions, we set up a field study that characterizes the effects of climate and pollution gradients on carbon assimilation and isoprene emission fluxes of dominant oak tree species in Texas. We followed selected oak species throughout their growth season during the exceptional drought in 2011 and following recovery during 2012 and 2013, by comparing tree response to their growth environment at three selected sites along an urban to rural transect from downtown Houston to the Sam Houston National Forest. As urban areas are warmer, more polluted and often drier than rural regions, they are used in our study as an environment that mimics conditions expected from global climate change. Our results revealed significant differences in the drought stress response of the investigated oak species, Quercus nigra and Q.stellata. The early onset of drought in 2011 affected mostly the urban trees: the assimilation of Q. nigra decreased by 90% below optimum already in the beginning of the season, while only by 35% in the more resistant Q. stellata. The extreme drought uncoupled isoprene emission from photosynthesis: though correlated with photosynthesis, emission rates were less affected, with a maximum

  8. Model Related Estimates of time dependent quantiles of peak flows - case study for selected catchments in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strupczewski, Witold G.; Bogdanowich, Ewa; Debele, Sisay

    2016-04-01

    Under Polish climate conditions the series of Annual Maxima (AM) flows are usually a mixture of peak flows of thaw- and rainfall- originated floods. The northern, lowland regions are dominated by snowmelt floods whilst in mountainous regions the proportion of rainfall floods is predominant. In many stations the majority of AM can be of snowmelt origin, but the greatest peak flows come from rainfall floods or vice versa. In a warming climate, precipitation is less likely to occur as snowfall. A shift from a snow- towards a rain-dominated regime results in a decreasing trend in mean and standard deviations of winter peak flows whilst rainfall floods do not exhibit any trace of non-stationarity. That is why a simple form of trends (i.e. linear trends) are more difficult to identify in AM time-series than in Seasonal Maxima (SM), usually winter season time-series. Hence it is recommended to analyse trends in SM, where a trend in standard deviation strongly influences the time -dependent upper quantiles. The uncertainty associated with the extrapolation of the trend makes it necessary to apply a relationship for trend which has time derivative tending to zero, e.g. we can assume a new climate equilibrium epoch approaching, or a time horizon is limited by the validity of the trend model. For both winter and summer SM time series, at least three distributions functions with trend model in the location, scale and shape parameters are estimated by means of the GAMLSS package using the ML-techniques. The resulting trend estimates in mean and standard deviation are mutually compared to the observed trends. Then, using AIC measures as weights, a multi-model distribution is constructed for each of two seasons separately. Further, assuming a mutual independence of the seasonal maxima, an AM model with time-dependent parameters can be obtained. The use of a multi-model approach can alleviate the effects of different and often contradictory trends obtained by using and identifying

  9. Comparison of wetlands in different hydrogeological settings under conditions of extreme climate variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winter, T.; Rosenberry, D.; Kelly, E.; LaBaugh, J.

    2005-01-01

    Wetlands in the Cottonwood Lake area in North Dakota, USA, are underlain by poorly permeable till and have little groundwater input. Lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee River headwaters in Minnesota are underlain by permeable sand and have substantial groundwater input. Hydrological, chemical, and biological characteristics of these ecosystems have been monitored since 1977. Both sites experienced the second worst drought of the 20th century followed by the wettest period in more than a century. At Cottonwood Lake, plants that invaded the dry wetlands during the drought were flooded during the wet period and became a food source for animals. This resulted in successive substantial population increases and declines of plankton, invertebrates, amphibians and waterfowl. Substantial groundwater input buffered the lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee area against the changing water conditions. Only subtle changes in water chemistry and plankton populations were observed during the transition from drought to deluge.

  10. Biological Membranes in Extreme Conditions: Simulations of Anionic Archaeal Tetraether Lipid Membranes

    PubMed Central

    Pineda De Castro, Luis Felipe; Dopson, Mark

    2016-01-01

    In contrast to the majority of organisms that have cells bound by di-ester phospholipids, archaeal membranes consist of di- and tetraether phospholipids. Originating from organisms that withstand harsh conditions (e.g., low pH and a wide range of temperatures) such membranes have physical properties that make them attractive materials for biological research and biotechnological applications. We developed force-field parameters based on the widely used Generalized Amber Force Field (GAFF) to enable the study of anionic tetraether membranes of the model archaean Sulfolobus acidocaldarius by computer simulations. The simulations reveal that the physical properties of these unique membranes depend on the number of cyclopentane rings included in each lipid unit, and on the size of cations that are used to ensure charge neutrality. This suggests that the biophysical properties of Sulfolobus acidocaldarius cells depend not only on the compositions of their membranes but also on the media in which they grow. PMID:27167213

  11. The chemistry of acetone at extreme conditions by density functional molecular dynamics simulations.

    PubMed

    Ferrante, Francesco; Lo Celso, Fabrizio; Triolo, Roberto; Taleyarkhan, Rusi P

    2011-02-14

    Density functional molecular dynamics simulations have been performed in the NVT ensemble (moles (N), volume (V) and temperature (T)) on a system formed by ten acetone molecules at a temperature of 2000 K and density ρ = 1.322 g cm(-3). These conditions resemble closely those realized at the interface of an acetone vapor bubble in the early stages of supercompression experiments and result in an average pressure of 5 GPa. Two relevant reactive events occur during the simulation: the condensation of two acetone molecules to give hexane-2,5-dione and dihydrogen and the isomerization to the enolic propen-2-ol form. The mechanisms of these events are discussed in detail. PMID:21322700

  12. Anaerobic digestion of the microalga Spirulina at extreme alkaline conditions: biogas production, metagenome, and metatranscriptome.

    PubMed

    Nolla-Ardèvol, Vímac; Strous, Marc; Tegetmeyer, Halina E

    2015-01-01

    A haloalkaline anaerobic microbial community obtained from soda lake sediments was used to inoculate anaerobic reactors for the production of methane rich biogas. The microalga Spirulina was successfully digested by the haloalkaline microbial consortium at alkaline conditions (pH 10, 2.0 M Na(+)). Continuous biogas production was observed and the obtained biogas was rich in methane, up to 96%. Alkaline medium acted as a CO2 scrubber which resulted in low amounts of CO2 and no traces of H2S in the produced biogas. A hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 15 days and 0.25 g Spirulina L(-1) day(-1) organic loading rate (OLR) were identified as the optimal operational parameters. Metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analysis showed that the hydrolysis of the supplied substrate was mainly carried out by Bacteroidetes of the "ML635J-40 aquatic group" while the hydrogenotrophic pathway was the main producer of methane in a methanogenic community dominated by Methanocalculus. PMID:26157422

  13. Flood risk under future climate in data sparse regions: Linking extreme value models and flood generating processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramblay, Yves; Amoussou, Ernest; Dorigo, Wouter; Mahé, Gil

    2014-11-01

    For many areas in the world, there is a need for future projections of flood risk in order to improve the possible mitigation actions. However, such an exercise is often made difficult in data-sparse regions, where the limited access to hydrometric data does not allow calibrating hydrological models in a robust way under non-stationary conditions. In this study we present an approach to estimate possible changes in flood risks, which incorporates flood generating processes into statistical models for extreme values. This approach is illustrated for a West African catchment, the Mono River (12,900 km2), with discharge, precipitation and temperature data available between 1988 and 2010 and where the dominant flood generating process is soil saturation. A soil moisture accounting (SMA) model, calibrated against a merged surface soil moisture microwave satellite dataset, is used to estimate the annual maximum soil saturation level that is related to the location parameter of a generalized extreme value model of annual maximum discharge. With such a model, it is possible to estimate the changes in flood quantiles from the changes in the annual maximum soil saturation level. An ensemble of regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES-AMMA project are then considered to estimate the potential future changes in soil saturation and subsequently the changes in flood risks for the period 2028-2050. A sensitivity analysis of the non-stationary flood quantiles has shown that with the projected changes on precipitation (-2%) and temperature (+1.22°) under the scenario A1B, the projected flood quantiles would stay in the range of the observed variability during 1988-2010. The proposed approach, relying on low data requirements, could be useful to estimate the projected changes in flood risks for other data-sparse catchments where the dominant flood-generating process is soil saturation.

  14. The molecular gas in luminous infrared galaxies - I. CO lines, extreme physical conditions and their drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Padelis P.; van der Werf, Paul P.; Xilouris, E. M.; Isaak, K. G.; Gao, Yu; Mühle, S.

    2012-11-01

    We report results from a large molecular line survey of luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs; L IR ≳1011 L) in the local Universe (z ≤ 0.1), conducted during the last decade with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope and the IRAM 30-m telescope. This work presents the CO and 13CO line data for 36 galaxies, further augmented by multi-J total CO line luminosities available for other infrared (IR) bright galaxies from the literature. This yields a combined sample of N = 70 galaxies with the star formation (SF) powered fraction of their IR luminosities spanning L IR (*)˜(1010-2×1012) L and a wide range of morphologies. Simple comparisons of their available CO spectral line energy distributions (SLEDs) with local ones, as well as radiative transfer models, discern a surprisingly wide range of average interstellar medium (ISM) conditions, with most of the surprises found in the high-excitation regime. These take the form of global CO SLEDs dominated by a very warm (Tkin ≳100 K) and dense (n ≥ 104 cm-3) gas phase, involving galaxy-sized (˜(few) × 109 M⊙) gas mass reservoirs under conditions that are typically found only for ˜(1-3) per cent of mass per typical SF molecular cloud in the Galaxy. Furthermore, some of the highest excitation CO SLEDs are found in ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs; LIR ≥ 1012 L⊙) and surpass even those found solely in compact SF-powered hot spots in Galactic molecular clouds. Strong supersonic turbulence and high cosmic ray energy densities rather than far-ultraviolet/optical photons or supernova remnant induced shocks from individual SF sites can globally warm the large amounts of dense gas found in these merger-driven starbursts and easily power their extraordinary CO line excitation. This exciting possibility can now be systematically investigated with Herschel and the Atacama Large Milimeter Array (ALMA). As expected for an IR-selected (and thus SF rate selected) galaxy sample, only few 'cold' CO SLEDs are found, and for

  15. Mechanical Behavior of Tissue Simulants and Soft Tissues Under Extreme Loading Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalcioglu, Zeynep Ilke

    Recent developments in computer-integrated surgery and in tissue-engineered constructs necessitate advances in experimental and analytical techniques in characterizing properties of mechanically compliant materials such as gels and soft tissues, particularly for small sample volumes. One goal of such developments is to quantitatively predict and mimic tissue deformation due to high rate impact events typical of industrial accidents and ballistic insults. This aim requires advances in mechanical characterization to establish tools and design principles for tissue simulant materials that can recapitulate the mechanical responses of hydrated soft tissues under dynamic contact-loading conditions. Given this motivation, this thesis studies the mechanical properties of compliant synthetic materials developed for tissue scaffold applications and of soft tissues, via modifying an established contact based technique for accurate, small scale characterization under fully hydrated conditions, and addresses some of the challenges in the implementation of this method. Two different engineered material systems composed of physically associating block copolymer gels, and chemically crosslinked networks including a solvent are presented as potential tissue simulants for ballistic applications, and compared directly to soft tissues from murine heart and liver. In addition to conventional quasistatic and dynamic bulk mechanical techniques that study macroscale elastic and viscoelastic properties, new methodologies are developed to study the small scale mechanical response of the aforementioned material systems to concentrated impact loading. The resistance to penetration and the energy dissipative constants are quantified in order to compare the deformation of soft tissues and mechanically optimized simulants, and to identify the underlying mechanisms by which the mechanical response of these tissue simulant candidates are modulated. Finally, given that soft tissues are biphasic in

  16. X-ray Raman Scattering at Extreme Conditions: Insights to Local Structure, Oxidation and Spin state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilke, M.; Sternemann, C.; Sahle, C.; Spiekermann, G.; Nyrow, A.; Weis, C.; Cerantola, V.; Schmidt, C.; Yavas, H.

    2015-12-01

    In the last decades, X-ray spectroscopic techniques using very intense synchrotron radiation (SR) have become indispensable tools for studying geomaterials. Due to the rather low absorption of hard X-rays, SR opens up the possibility to perform measurements in high-pressure, high temperature cells. The range of elements accessible by X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAFS) techniques in these cells is limited by the absorption of X-rays due to the sample environment, i.e. the diamond windows. The indirect measurement of XAFS spectra by inelastic X-ray Raman scattering (XRS) provides a workaround to access absorption edges at low energies (e.g. low Z elements). Therefore, XRS enables measurements that are similar to electron energy loss spectroscopy but offer to measure at in-situ conditions and not just in vacuum. Measurements of the O K-edge of H2O from ambient to supercritical PT-conditions (up to 600°C @ 134 MPa; 400°C @ 371 MPa) were used to trace structural changes of the hydrogen-bonded network, which controls many physical and chemical properties of H2O [1]. The Fe M3,2-edge measured by XRS were used to characterize the oxidation state and local structure in crystalline compounds and glasses [2]. Furthermore, the M3,2 yields detailed insight to the crystal-field splitting and electronic spin state. In a reconnaissance study, the pressure-induced high-spin to low-spin transition of Fe in FeS between 6 and 8 GPa was measured. By multiplet calculations of the spectra for octahedral Fe2+, a difference in crystal field splitting between the two states of ca. 1.7 eV was estimated [3]. Finally, we successfully assessed the electronic structure of Fe in siderite by measurements of M and L-edge up to 50 GPa, covering the spin transition between 40 and 45 GPa. [1] Sahle et al. (2013) PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1220301110.. [2] Nyrow et al. (2014) Contrib Mineral Petrol 167, 1012. [3] Nyrow et al. (2014) Appl Phys Lett 104, 262408.

  17. First-Principles Investigations on Thermal Conductivity and Average Ionization of CH Ablators Under Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, S. X.; Goncharov, V. N.; McCrory, R. L.; Skupsky, S.; Collins, L. A.; Kress, J. D.

    2015-11-01

    A plastic CH ablator (polystyrene) is often used for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) target designs. Upon intense laser or x-ray ablations, a CH ablator can be shocked to warm-dense-matter (WDM) conditions. Many-body coupling and quantum electron degeneracy are expected to play an essential role in determining the properties of such warm dense plasmas. Using ab initio methods of quantum molecular dynamics (QMD), we have performed investigations on the principal Hugoniot of a CH ablator, the first-principles equation-of-state table of CH, and its effect on ICF simulations. In this presentation, we focus on the thermal conductivity and average ionization of CH-ablators under a wide range of plasma temperatures and densities. The resulting thermal conductivity (κ) and average ionization () show large differences from the usual model predictions in the WDM regime. These results, being fitted with analytical functions of plasma density and temperature, have been incorporated into radiation -hydrodynamics codes. Their effects on the ICF implosion simulations will be presented. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944 and the Scientific Campaign 10 at LANL under Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25396.

  18. Anaerobic digestion of the microalga Spirulina at extreme alkaline conditions: biogas production, metagenome, and metatranscriptome

    PubMed Central

    Nolla-Ardèvol, Vímac; Strous, Marc; Tegetmeyer, Halina E.

    2015-01-01

    A haloalkaline anaerobic microbial community obtained from soda lake sediments was used to inoculate anaerobic reactors for the production of methane rich biogas. The microalga Spirulina was successfully digested by the haloalkaline microbial consortium at alkaline conditions (pH 10, 2.0 M Na+). Continuous biogas production was observed and the obtained biogas was rich in methane, up to 96%. Alkaline medium acted as a CO2 scrubber which resulted in low amounts of CO2 and no traces of H2S in the produced biogas. A hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 15 days and 0.25 g Spirulina L−1 day−1 organic loading rate (OLR) were identified as the optimal operational parameters. Metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analysis showed that the hydrolysis of the supplied substrate was mainly carried out by Bacteroidetes of the “ML635J-40 aquatic group” while the hydrogenotrophic pathway was the main producer of methane in a methanogenic community dominated by Methanocalculus. PMID:26157422

  19. Embedded optical probes for simultaneous pressure and temperature measurement of materials in extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandberg, R. L.; Rodriguez, G.; Gibson, L. L.; Dattelbaum, D. M.; Stevens, G. D.; Grover, M.; Lalone, B. M.; Udd, E.

    2014-05-01

    We present recent efforts at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to develop sensors for simultaneous, in situ pressure and temperature measurements under dynamic conditions by using an all-optical fiber-based approach. While similar tests have been done previously in deflagration-to-detonation tests (DDT), where pressure and temperature were measured to 82 kbar and 400°C simultaneously, here we demonstrate the use of embedded fiber grating sensors to obtain high temporal resolution, in situ pressure measurements in inert materials. We present two experimental demonstrations of pressure measurements: (1) under precise shock loading from a gas-gun driven plate impact and (2) under high explosive driven shock in a water filled vessel. The system capitalizes on existing telecom components and fast transient digitizing recording technology. It operates as a relatively inexpensive embedded probe (single-mode 1550 nm fiber-based Bragg grating) that provides a continuous fast pressure record during shock and/or detonation. By applying well-controlled shock wave pressure profiles to these inert materials, we study the dynamic pressure response of embedded fiber Bragg gratings to extract pressure amplitude of the shock wave and compare our results with particle velocity wave profiles measured simultaneously.

  20. Embedded optical probes for simultaneous pressure and temperature measurement of materials in extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandberg, Richard; Rodriguez, George; Gibson, Lee; Dattelbaum, Dana; Udd, Eric

    2013-06-01

    We present a new technique for simultaneous, in situ pressure and temperature measurements under dynamic conditions by using an all-optical fiber-based approach. While similar tests have been done previously in deflagration-to-detonation tests (DDT), where pressure and temperature were measured to 82 kbar and 400 °C simultaneously, here we demonstrate the use of embedded fiber grating sensors to obtain high temporal resolution in situ pressure measurements in inert materials under precise shock loading from a gas-gun driven plate impact. The system capitalizes on existing telecom components and fast transient digitizing recording technology. It operates as a relatively inexpensive embedded probe (single-mode 1550 nm fiber-based Bragg grating - FBG) that provides a continuous fast pressure record during shock and/or detonation. Fiber Bragg grating sensors have predictable thermal and mechanical response properties with pressure spectrally shifting the reflectance peak at λ = 1550 nm to the blue and temperature shifting the peak to the red. By applying well-controlled steady shock wave pressure profiles to soft materials such as PMMA, we study the dynamic pressure response of embedded fiber Bragg gratings to extract pressure amplitude of the shock wave and compare our results with in situ particle velocity wave profiles measured simultaneously.

  1. A Molecular Dynamics Study of Chemical Reactions of Solid Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate at Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, C J; Manaa, M R; Fried, L E

    2006-05-30

    We have carried out density functional based tight binding (DFTB) molecular dynamics (MD) simulation to study energetic reactions of solid Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate (PETN) at conditions approximating the Chapman-Jouguet (CJ) detonation state. We found that the initial decomposition of PETN molecular solid is characterized by uni-molecular dissociation of the NO{sub 2}groups. Interestingly, energy release from this powerful high explosive was found to proceed in several stages. The large portion of early stage energy release was found to be associated with the formation of H{sub 2}O molecules within a few picoseconds of reaction. It took nearly four times as long for majority of CO{sub 2} products to form, accompanied by a slow oscillatory conversion between CO and CO{sub 2}. The production of N{sub 2} starts after NO{sub 2} loses its oxygen atoms to hydrogen or carbon atoms to form H{sub 2}O or CO. We identified many intermediate species that emerge and contribute to reaction kinetics, and compared our simulation with a thermo-chemical equilibrium calculation. In addition, a detailed chemical kinetics of formation of H{sub 2}O, CO, and CO{sub 2} were developed. Rate constants of formations of H{sub 2}O, CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2} were reported.

  2. Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, N.; Sillmann, J.; Schnell, J. L.; Rust, H. W.; Butler, T.

    2016-02-01

    The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8 h average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

  3. Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

    2016-04-01

    The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

  4. Underwater Ambient Noise and Sperm Whale Click Detection during Extreme Wind Speed Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newcomb, Joal J.; Wright, Andrew J.; Kuczaj, Stan; Thames, Rachel; Hillstrom, Wesley R.; Goodman, Ralph

    2004-11-01

    The Littoral Acoustic Demonstration Center (LA DC) deployed three Environmental Acoustic Recording System (EARS) buoys in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the summers of 2001 (LADC 01) and 2002 (LADC 02). The hydrophone of each buoy was approximately 50m from the bottom in water depths of 645m to 1034m. During LADC 01 Tropical Storm Barry passed within 93nmi east of the EARS buoys. During LADC 02 Tropical Storm Isidore and Hurricane Lili passed within approximately 73nmi and 116nmi, respectively, west of the EARS buoys. The proximity of these storm systems to the EARS buoys, in conjunction with wind speed data from three nearby NDBC weather buoys, allows for the direct comparison of underwater ambient noise levels with high wind speeds. These results are compared to the G. M. Wenz spectra at frequencies from 1kHz to 5.5kHz. In addition, the impact of storm conditions on sperm whale clicks was assessed. In particular, although the time period during the closest approach of TS Barry tended to produce lower click rates, this time period did not have the greatest incidence of non-detection at all the EARS buoys. It follows that storm-related masking noise could not have been responsible for all the observed trends. The data suggest that sperm whales may have left the vicinity of the deepest EARS buoy (nearest TS Barry's storm track) during the storm and possibly moved into the shallower waters around the other EARS buoys. It also appears that sperm whales may not have returned to the deepest EARS area, or did not resume normal behavior immediately after the storm, as the click rate did not recover to pre-storm levels during the period after TS Barry had dissipated. Results of these analyses and the ambient noise analysis will be presented. (Research supported by ONR).

  5. SOFI/Substrate integrity testing for cryogenic propellant tanks at extreme thermal gradient conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haynes, M.; Fabian, P.

    2015-12-01

    Liquid propellant tank insulation for space flight requires low weight as well as high insulation factors. Use of Spray-On Foam Insulation (SOFI) is an accepted, cost effective technique for insulating a single wall cryogenic propellant tank and has been used extensively throughout the aerospace industry. Determining the bond integrity of the SOFI to the metallic substrate as well as its ability to withstand the in-service strains, both mechanical and thermal, is critical to the longevity of the insulation. This determination has previously been performed using highly volatile, explosive cryogens, which increases the test costs enormously, as well as greatly increasing the risk to both equipment and personnel. CTD has developed a new test system, based on a previous NASA test that simulates the mechanical and thermal strains associated with filling a large fuel tank with a cryogen. The test enables a relatively small SOFI/substrate sample to be monitored for any deformations, delaminations, or disjunctures during the cooling and mechanical straining process of the substrate, and enables the concurrent application of thermal and physical strains to two specimens at the same time. The thermal strains are applied by cooling the substrate to the desired cryogen temperature (from 4 K to 250 K) while maintaining the outside surface of the SOFI foam at ambient conditions. Multiple temperature monitoring points are exercised to ensure even cooling across the substrate, while at the same time, surface temperatures of the SOFI can be monitored to determine the heat flow. The system also allows for direct measurement of the strains in the substrate during the test. The test system as well as test data from testing at 20 K, for liquid Hydrogen simulation, will be discussed.

  6. Spirituality and Aging in Place: The Impact of Extreme Climatic Conditions on Domestic Gardening Practice.

    PubMed

    Adams, Joanne; Pascal, Jan; Dickson-Swift, Virginia

    2014-12-01

    There is limited research exploring how domestic water restrictions imposed as a result of drought conditions impact upon the lives of independently living older people. Within this age group (60 years plus), the domestic garden frequently forms an intrinsic component of ongoing health and well-being. Gardening practice offers components of both mental and physical activity and, for many older people, leads to emotional and spiritual connection on a number of levels. The capacity of older people to maintain a garden during a period of water restrictions is greatly reduced, and the resulting impact on health and well-being is considerable. A recent study, conducted in south-eastern Australia, aimed to determine the benefits to health and well-being of maintaining a domestic garden for older people and the impact of water restrictions on garden practice. This occurred at a time following a prolonged period of drought and, in central Victoria, a complete ban on outside watering. In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with 10 gardeners aged between 60 and 83 who had tended their garden over an extended period. The lived experience of gardening was explored through hermeneutic phenomenological analysis. Clear benefits to health and well-being were established, and yet, the essence of this experience lay in the capacity of gardeners to remain connected to their garden despite change. The crisis imposed by ongoing drought and restricted use of water generated a strong impetus for adaptation, resilience and acceptance of change. The spiritual nature of gardening practice clearly emerged and appeared to intensify the experience of gardening and consolidate adaption to change on a number of levels. PMID:26215296

  7. The family as a determinant of stunting in children living in conditions of extreme poverty: a case-control study

    PubMed Central

    Reyes, Hortensia; Pérez-Cuevas, Ricardo; Sandoval, Araceli; Castillo, Raúl; Santos, José Ignacio; Doubova, Svetlana V; Gutiérrez, Gonzalo

    2004-01-01

    Background Malnutrition in children can be a consequence of unfavourable socioeconomic conditions. However, some families maintain adequate nutritional status in their children despite living in poverty. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether family-related factors are determinants of stunting in young Mexican children living in extreme poverty, and whether these factors differ between rural or urban contexts. Methods A case-control study was conducted in one rural and one urban extreme poverty level areas in Mexico. Cases comprised stunted children aged between 6 and 23 months. Controls were well-nourished children. Independent variables were defined in five dimensions: family characteristics; family income; household allocation of resources and family organisation; social networks; and child health care. Information was collected from 108 cases and 139 controls in the rural area and from 198 cases and 211 controls in the urban area. Statistical analysis was carried out separately for each area; unconditional multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain the best explanatory model for stunting. Results In the rural area, a greater risk of stunting was associated with father's occupation as farmer and the presence of family networks for child care. The greatest protective effect was found in children cared for exclusively by their mothers. In the urban area, risk factors for stunting were father with unstable job, presence of small social networks, low rate of attendance to the Well Child Program activities, breast-feeding longer than six months, and two variables within the family characteristics dimension (longer duration of parents' union and migration from rural to urban area). Conclusions This study suggests the influence of the family on the nutritional status of children under two years of age living in extreme poverty areas. Factors associated with stunting were different in rural and urban communities. Therefore, developing and

  8. Detecting life traces in extreme cold and dry conditions on earth: possible analogues of life on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wierzchos, J.; de Los Rios, A.; Ascaso, C.

    2004-03-01

    Microbial life in the harsh conditions of Antarctica's cold desert may be considered an analogue of potential life of early Mars. The microbial ecology of these lithobiontic, extremophile microorganism communities could provide clues to the challenging question of how life (if ever present) became extinct on Mars. Application of the SEM-BSE plus EDS technique has allowed us to demonstrate the presence of microbial fossils and biomarkers within Antarctic sandstone rocks collected from Ross Desert for the first time. There is an obvious need for extensive further work on live, dead, mummified and mineralized lithobiontic Antarctic microorganisms. The in situ examination of the interior of Antarctic rocks might represent the best option available to improve our knowledge on these extreme cold and dry microbial habitats and it is foreseen that this type of work will have applications in future astrobiological investigations performed on geological material obtained from Mars.

  9. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited)a)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Barbrel, B.; Gauthier, M.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Döppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Falcone, R. W.; Heimann, P.; Zastrau, U.; Hastings, J. B.; Glenzer, S. H.

    2014-11-01

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  10. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    SciTech Connect

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Gauthier, M.; Heimann, P.; Hastings, J. B.; Zastrau, U.; Glenzer, S. H.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Barbrel, B.; Falcone, R. W.

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  11. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited).

    PubMed

    Fletcher, L B; Lee, H J; Barbrel, B; Gauthier, M; Galtier, E; Nagler, B; Döppner, T; LePape, S; Ma, T; Pak, A; Turnbull, D; White, T; Gregori, G; Wei, M; Falcone, R W; Heimann, P; Zastrau, U; Hastings, J B; Glenzer, S H

    2014-11-01

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision. PMID:25430365

  12. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Gauthier, M.; et al

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstratesmore » the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.« less

  13. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited)

    SciTech Connect

    Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Gauthier, M.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Heimann, P.; Hastings, J. B.; Glenzer, S. H.; Barbrel, B.; Falcone, R. W.; Döppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Zastrau, U.

    2014-11-15

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  14. Monitoring Surface Moisture of Crater-fill Sediment in Extreme hydroclimatic conditions (Ubehebe Volcanic Field, Death Valley, California).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaccorsi, R.; Zent, A.; McKay, C. P.

    2014-12-01

    The long term monitoring of soil surface moisture is key for constraining surface hydrology processes in extreme weather and climatic settings and their impact on biological and geological components of desert environments. We tested and applied the use of miniature data loggers to acquire novel Temperature (T) and water content (weight percent, wt%) of fine-grained sediments deposited during rain events at Ubehebe Crater (UC), the larger and deeper crater within a volcanic field in Death Valley. The Miniaturized in situ systems are compliant with Death Valley National Park's regulations to conduct scientific research in wilderness and sacred sites. About 130,000 hours of recorded soil moisture and temperature were acquired in relation to the hydroclimatic conditions (2009-current). Total annual rainfall in the area range from ~50mm to <250 mm/y in water years (WY) 2004-to date. These values are representative of the climatic context of the Mojave Region as they encompass the wettest (2005, 2011) and driest years (2002, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2014) of the last ~120 years (Western Regional Climate Center, www.wrcc.dri.edu). To date, surface (0.5 cm to 2 cm-depth) moisture of intra-crater deposits can vary from dry-very dry (1-3wt % to - 10 wt%) to wet-saturated (10-60 wt%). Over saturated conditions occur in ephemeral ponds, which appear to form once a year as a result of winter and summer rainstorms, and may last for one-two weeks (2009-2014 study years). Summer storms can yield ca. 40% to 60% of the total annual precipitation (WY 2011 thru 2014). The intensity and temporal distribution of annual storms together with ground temperature extremes (-16 to +67 ºC) influence moisture distribution and retention within the crater's floor.

  15. Advanced combination of laser and synchrotron techniques to study minerals at extreme conditions in the time-domain mode (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prakapenka, V.; Zinin, P.; Goncharov, A.; Zhuravlev, K. K.; Tkachev, S. N.

    2013-12-01

    Over the past two decades, high pressure research has made breakthrough progress in many fields of science mainly due to significant advances in development of both high pressure vessels (diamond anvil cell and large volume press) and high brilliance synchrotron based techniques, including high resolution x-ray micro-diffraction, x-ray spectroscopy (absorption, emission, resonance), micro-imaging, inelastic and nuclear resonance scattering. Combination of double-sided laser heating with synchrotron x-ray radiation has stimulated synthesis and investigation of new materials with unique composition and properties in-situ at high temperatures and high pressures in the diamond anvil cell. Equation of state, structure, phase transformations, element partitioning, electronic and optical properties of various minerals (single crystal, powder, nano-crystalline, amorphous solid and fluids) have been successfully studied at extreme conditions with help of the lasers and x-ray beams. Recent developments in pulse laser heating technique, including application of fiber lasers and flat top laser beam shaping optics, result in significant improvement in synthesis of new metastable materials with tuneable composition and properties controlled in-situ with high resolution x-ray and optical techniques in time-domain mode. To study elastic properties of opaque minerals in situ at high pressure and temperature we have combined laser ultrasonic with laser heating techniques. The shear and longitudinal wave velocities were measured for iron at pressures up to 60 GPa in the diamond anvil cell. The details and application of the synchrotron and optical techniques for studies unique physical and chemical properties of minerals in-situ at extreme conditions will be discussed on example of iron-bearing materials.

  16. Exploring thermal and mechanical properties of selected transition elements under extreme conditions: Experiments at high pressures and high temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrubiak, Rostislav

    Transition metals (Ti, Zr, Hf, Mo, W, V, Nb, Ta, Pd, Pt, Cu, Ag, and Au) are essential building units of many materials and have important industrial applications. Therefore, it is important to understand their thermal and physical behavior when they are subjected to extreme conditions of pressure and temperature. This dissertation presents: • An improved experimental technique to use lasers for the measurement of thermal conductivity of materials under conditions of very high pressure (P, up to 50 GPa) and temperature (T up to 2500 K). • An experimental study of the phase relationship and physical properties of selected transition metals, which revealed new and unexpected physical effects of thermal conductivity in Zr, and Hf under high P-T.. • New phase diagrams created for Hf, Ti and Zr from experimental data. • P-T dependence of the lattice parameters in α-hafnium. Contrary to prior reports, the α-ω phase transition in hafnium has a negative dT/dP slope. • New data on thermodynamic and physical properties of several transition metals and their respective high P-T phase diagrams. • First complete thermodynamic database for solid phases of 13 common transition metals was created. This database has: All the thermochemical data on these elements in their standard state (mostly available and compiled); All the equations of state (EoS) formulated from pressure-volume-temperature data (measured as a part of this study and from literature); Complete thermodynamic data for selected elements from standard to extreme conditions. The thermodynamic database provided by this study can be used with available thermodynamic software to calculate all thermophysical properties and phase diagrams at high P-T conditions. For readers who do not have access to this software, tabulated values of all thermodynamic and volume data for the 13 metals at high P-T are included in the APPENDIX. In the APPENDIX, a description of several other high-pressure studies of selected

  17. QCD In Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilczek, Frank

    Introduction Symmetry and the Phenomena of QCD Apparent and Actual Symmetries Asymptotic Freedom Confinement Chiral Symmetry Breaking Chiral Anomalies and Instantons High Temperature QCD: Asymptotic Properties Significance of High Temperature QCD Numerical Indications for Quasi-Free Behavior Ideas About Quark-Gluon Plasma Screening Versus Confinement Models of Chiral Symmetry Breaking More Refined Numerical Experiments High-Temperature QCD: Phase Transitions Yoga of Phase Transitions and Order Parameters Application to Glue Theories Application to Chiral Transitions Close Up on Two Flavors A Genuine Critical Point! (?) High-Density QCD: Methods Hopes, Doubts, and Fruition Another Renormalization Group Pairing Theory Taming the Magnetic Singularity High-Density QCD: Color-Flavor Locking and Quark-Hadron Continuity Gauge Symmetry (Non)Breaking Symmetry Accounting Elementary Excitations A Modified Photon Quark-Hadron Continuity Remembrance of Things Past More Quarks Fewer Quarks and Reality

  18. Habitability in Extreme Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lobkowicz, Ysaline; de Crombrugghe, Guerric; Le Maire, Victor; Jago, Alban; Denies, Jonathan; van Vynckt, Delphine; Reydams, Marc; Mertens, Alexandre

    A manned space mission could be perfectly prepared in terms of sciences and technologies, but without a good habitat, a place where the needs of the crew are respected, this isolation and confinement can turn into a nightmare. There is the limitation of engineering: it is more than important to take care about architecture, when human lives are part of the experiment. The goal of the research is the analysis of the hard life of isolation and confinement in Mars' hostile environment and how architecture is a way to improve it. The objective is to place the human in the middle of the analysis. What does a person really need? Therefore Maslow's idea, the pyramid of primary needs, gives us the hierarchy to follow: first survival, food and beverage, then sleep, and only then protection, social activities and work. [1] No more luxury. If all these aspects are respected, a human is able to survive, like it did since so many years. The idea is that each of these main activities has to be related to a different type of space, to provide variability in this close environment. For example, work and relaxing areas have to be separated; a human being needs time for himself, without concentration. A workspace and a relaxing area have a different typology, different colours and lighting, dimensions, furniture. This has also to be respected in a spacecraft. For this research, different sources are used, mainly in the psychological aspect, which is the most important. [2] Therefore questionnaires, interviews, diaries of past expeditions are full of treasures. We do not have to search too far: on earth; polar expeditions, submarines, military camps, etc., give a lot of information. Some very realistic simulations, as on the Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS), will also be used as material: a good analysis of the defaults and well-organized part of the station can conduct to important conclusions. [3] A found analysis and a well-designed habitat are considerable keys for the success of the mission. References: [1] A. Maslow (1943) Theory of Human Motivation [2] J. Stuster (1996) Bold Endeavors, Lessons from Polar and Space Exploration [3] Mars Society, Mars Desert Research Station in Utah

  19. Chemistry at Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Zaug, J M; Fried, L E; Abramson, E H; Hansen, D W; Crowhurst, J C; Howard, W M

    2002-08-08

    We present equation of state results from impulsively stimulated light scattering (ISLS) experiments conducted in diamond anvil cells on pure supercritical fluids. We have made measurements on fluid H{sub 2}O (water), and CH{sub 3}OH (methanol). Sound speeds measured through ISLS have allowed us to refine existing potential models used in the exponential-6 (EXP-6) detonation product library [Fried, L. E., and Howard, W. M., J. Chem. Phys. 109 (17): 7338-7348 (1998).]. The refined models allow us to more accurately assess the chemical composition at the Chapman-Jouget (C-J) state of common energetic materials. We predict that water is present in appreciable quantities at the C-J state of energetic materials HMX, RDX, and nitro methane.

  20. Extreme Values Analysis of McMurdo Dry Valleys Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, R.; Gooseff, M. N.

    2012-12-01

    The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica is often referred to as an extreme environment because of cold mean annual temperatures (-20 degrees C), and very dry conditions (<10 cm water equivalent precipitation annually). However, the long-term database of the McMurdo Long Term Ecological Research project (>20 years in some cases) has not yet formally been analyzed to determine if statistically extreme events occur in this otherwise "extreme" ecosystem. We analyzed limnology, stream, and meteorology datasets with the extRemes R software package. For each time series read, the extRemes package produced a Probability Plot, a Quantile Plot, a Return Level Plot, and a Density Plot of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution. The four plots indicate the extent to which the observed distribution fits the GEV distribution. We found that, in particular, the conductivity of Delta Stream and Lost Seal Stream has all of daily means, daily maximums and daily minimums well fitted in GEV. The relative humidity of Commonwealth Glacier, Howard Glacier and Taylor Glacier is only well fitted in daily means and daily minimums, but daily maximums. On the contrary, radiation levels and soil temperatures never fit the GEV distribution. The other time series are fitted only in one or none of daily means, daily maximums and daily minimums.; ;

  1. Extreme thermodynamic conditions: novel stoichiometries, violations of textbook chemistry, and intriguing possibilities for the synthesis of new materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrou, Elissaios

    As evidenced by numerous experimental and theoretical studies, application of high pressure can dramatically modify the atomic arrangement and electronic structures of both elements and compounds. However, the great majority of research has been focused on the effect of pressure on compounds with constant stoichiometries (typically those stable under ambient conditions). Recent theoretical predictions, using advanced search algorithms, suggest that composition is another important variable in the search for stable compounds, i.e. that the more stable stoichiometry at elevated pressures is not a priory the same as that at ambient pressure. Indeed, thermodynamically stable compounds with novel compositions were theoretically predicted and experimentally verified even in relatively simple chemical systems including: Na-Cl, C-N, Li-H, Na-H, Cs-N, H-N, Na-He, Xe-Fe. These materials are stable due to the formation of novel chemical bonds that are absent, or even forbidden, at ambient conditions. Tuning the composition of the system thus represents another important, but poorly explored approach to the synthesis of novel materials. By varying the stoichiometry one can design novel materials with enhanced properties (e.g. high energy density, hardness, superconductivity etc.), that are metastable at ambient conditions and synthesized at thermodynamic conditions less extreme than that those required for known stoichiometries. Moreover, current outstanding questions, ``anomalies'' and ``paradoxes'' in geo- and planetary science (e.g. the Xenon paradox) could be addressed based on the stability of surprising, stoichiometries that challenge our traditional ``textbook'' picture. In this talk, I will briefly present recent results and highlight the need of close synergy between experimental and theoretical efforts to understand the challenging and complex field of variable stoichiometry under pressure. Finally, possible new routes for the synthesis of novel materials will be

  2. Regionalisation of a distributed method for flood quantiles estimation: Revaluation of local calibration hypothesis to enhance the spatial structure of the optimised parameter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Odry, Jean; Arnaud, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    here is to develop a SHYREG evaluation scheme focusing on both local and regional performances. Indeed, it is necessary to maintain the accuracy of at site flood quantiles estimation while identifying a configuration leading to a satisfactory spatial pattern of the calibrated parameter. This ability to be regionalised can be appraised by the association of common regionalisation techniques and split sample validation tests on a set of around 1,500 catchments representing the whole diversity of France physiography. Also, the presence of many nested catchments and a size-based split sample validation make possible to assess the relevance of the calibrated parameter spatial structure inside the largest catchments. The application of this multi-objective evaluation leads to the selection of a version of SHYREG more suitable for regionalisation. References: Arnaud, P., Cantet, P., Aubert, Y., 2015. Relevance of an at-site flood frequency analysis method for extreme events based on stochastic simulation of hourly rainfall. Hydrological Sciences Journal: on press. DOI:10.1080/02626667.2014.965174 Aubert, Y., Arnaud, P., Ribstein, P., Fine, J.A., 2014. The SHYREG flow method-application to 1605 basins in metropolitan France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(5): 993-1005. DOI:10.1080/02626667.2014.902061

  3. Influence of the extreme conditions on the water quality and material exchange flux in the Strait of Istanbul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altıok, Hüsne; Aslan, Aslı; Övez, Süleyman; Demirel, Nazlı; Yüksek, Ahsen; Kıratlı, Nur; Taş, Seyfettin; Müftüoğlu, Ahmet Edip; Sur, Halil Ibrahim; Okuş, Erdoğan

    2014-11-01

    This study focuses on the influence of extreme hydrological events on the water quality of the Strait of Istanbul (Bosphorus), a stratified waterway, polluted by sewage outfalls and non-point sources. Monthly collected water quality parameters (nitrate + nitrite, ortho-phosphate, silicate, dissolved oxygen, total suspended solids, chlorophyll-a and fecal indicator bacteria (fecal coliform and enterococci)) were evaluated together with the hydrological data (salinity, temperature and current flow) for 1 year. Two blockage events, identified as extreme conditions, were detected during the study: a lower layer blockage in February 2003 and an upper layer blockage in October 2003. During the lower layer blockage, the volume fluxes of the upper layer significantly increased to 28,140 m3 s- 1 and the lower layer almost stopped flowing (19 m3 s- 1). The dissolved oxidative nitrogen, ortho-phosphate and silicate inputs outflowing from the Black Sea were 117, 17.6, and 309 tons which were 3, 2, and 4 times the average daily fluxes respectively, in addition to enhancement of fecal indicator bacteria contamination in the sea surface flow. During the upper layer blockage, the volume flux of the upper layer was 3837 m3 s- 1 and the counter flow reached 24,985 m3 s- 1 at the northern exit of the Strait of Istanbul resulting in 2.7 fold increase in the mean bottom flow. The daily exports of nutrients, total suspended solid and dissolved oxygen by the lower layer flow increased by at least 2 fold compared to the mass fluxes estimated from the seasonal/annual means of volume flux and concentrations. On the other hand, fecal indicator bacteria flux by the lower layer inflow to the Black Sea decreased by at least 2 fold compared to the mean daily flux. These results show that the material exchange between the Marmara and the Black seas becomes more important during blockage events.

  4. The Conditions Underpinning Extreme Star Formation in ULIRGs and LIRGs as Revealed by Herschel Far-Infrared Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasquez, Gabriel A.; Ashby, Matthew; Smith, Howard Alan; McTier, Moiya; Melendez, Marcio

    2016-01-01

    We present a systematic survey of molecular and atomic line fluxes in all star-forming galaxies observed by the Herschel PACs instrument with detectable OH lines that also contain Herschel SPIRE FTS spectra, to determine how physical conditions vary as a function of star formation rate. Specifically, we measured selected CO, H2O, [CI], and [NII] integrated line fluxes in a sample of 145 star-forming galaxies covering a range of far-infrared luminosities ranging from 109 to above 1012 LSun . Thus, our sample includes typical, quiescent galaxies as well as Luminous Infrared Galaxies (LIRGs) and Ultra Luminous Infrared Galaxies (ULIRGs), known to be creating stars extremely rapidly. We find evidence suggesting that ULIRGs with far-infrared luminosities of LFIR> 1012 LSun require an additional heating mechanism other than UV heating from star formation, while LIRGs and less luminous star-forming galaxies may be heated primarily by their star formation. We also find that the [NII] 3P1 - 3P0 fine structure line flux and those of the CO J=5-4, CO J=7-6, and CO J=8-7 transitions are generally weaker for ULIRGs compared to LIRGs and less luminous star-forming galaxies, while we find the CO J=11-10, CO J=12-11, and CO J=13-12 transitions are generally stronger. In all these respects, ULIRGs are shown to differ significantly from other galaxies undergoing less extreme star formation. This work was supported in part by the NSF REU and DoD ASSURE programs under NSF grant no. 1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution.

  5. Log Pearson type 3 quantile estimators with regional skew information and low outlier adjustments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffis, V.W.; Stedinger, J.R.; Cohn, T.A.

    2004-01-01

    [1] The recently developed expected moments algorithm (EMA) [Cohn et al., 1997] does as well as maximum likelihood estimations at estimating log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) flood quantiles using systematic and historical flood information. Needed extensions include use of a regional skewness estimator and its precision to be consistent with Bulletin 17B. Another issue addressed by Bulletin 17B is the treatment of low outliers. A Monte Carlo study compares the performance of Bulletin 17B using the entire sample with and without regional skew with estimators that use regional skew and censor low outliers, including an extended EMA estimator, the conditional probability adjustment (CPA) from Bulletin 17B, and an estimator that uses probability plot regression (PPR) to compute substitute values for low outliers. Estimators that neglect regional skew information do much worse than estimators that use an informative regional skewness estimator. For LP3 data the low outlier rejection procedure generally results in no loss of overall accuracy, and the differences between the MSEs of the estimators that used an informative regional skew are generally modest in the skewness range of real interest. Samples contaminated to model actual flood data demonstrate that estimators which give special treatment to low outliers significantly outperform estimators that make no such adjustment.

  6. Decomposing body mass index gaps between Mediterranean countries: a counterfactual quantile regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Costa-Font, Joan; Fabbri, Daniele; Gil, Joan

    2009-12-01

    Wide cross-country variation in obesity rates has been reported between European Union member states. Although the existing cross-country differences have not been analyzed in depth, they contain important information on health production determinants. In this paper we apply a methodology for conducting standardized cross-country comparisons of body mass index (BMI). We draw on estimations of the marginal density function of BMI for Italy and Spain in 2003, two countries with similar GDP and socio-economic conditions. We produce different counterfactual distribution estimates using covariates (health production inputs) specified in a quantile regression. Our findings suggest that Spain-to-Italy BMI gaps among females are largely explained by cross-country variation in the returns to each covariate, especially for younger women. We find that adverse underlying determinants do not explain the gap observed in particular between younger Spanish females and their Italian counterfactuals; behavioural differences appear to be the key. We tentatively conclude that Spanish policy on obesity should target mainly younger females. PMID:19782010

  7. Assessment of Weighted Quantile Sum Regression for Modeling Chemical Mixtures and Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Czarnota, Jenna; Gennings, Chris; Wheeler, David C

    2015-01-01

    In evaluation of cancer risk related to environmental chemical exposures, the effect of many chemicals on disease is ultimately of interest. However, because of potentially strong correlations among chemicals that occur together, traditional regression methods suffer from collinearity effects, including regression coefficient sign reversal and variance inflation. In addition, penalized regression methods designed to remediate collinearity may have limitations in selecting the truly bad actors among many correlated components. The recently proposed method of weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression attempts to overcome these problems by estimating a body burden index, which identifies important chemicals in a mixture of correlated environmental chemicals. Our focus was on assessing through simulation studies the accuracy of WQS regression in detecting subsets of chemicals associated with health outcomes (binary and continuous) in site-specific analyses and in non-site-specific analyses. We also evaluated the performance of the penalized regression methods of lasso, adaptive lasso, and elastic net in correctly classifying chemicals as bad actors or unrelated to the outcome. We based the simulation study on data from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program (NCI-SEER) case–control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) to achieve realistic exposure situations. Our results showed that WQS regression had good sensitivity and specificity across a variety of conditions considered in this study. The shrinkage methods had a tendency to incorrectly identify a large number of components, especially in the case of strong association with the outcome. PMID:26005323

  8. Calibrating river bathymetry via image to depth quantile transformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legleiter, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Remote sensing has emerged as a powerful means of measuring river depths, but standard algorithms such as Optimal Band Ratio Analysis (OBRA) require field measurements to calibrate image-derived estimates. Such reliance upon field-based calibration undermines the advantages of remote sensing. This study introduces an alternative approach based on the probability distribution of depths dd within a reach. Provided a quantity XX related to dd can be derived from a remotely sensed data set, image-to-depth quantile transformation (IDQT) infers depths throughout the image by linking the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of XX to that of dd. The algorithm involves determining, for each pixel in the image, the CDF value for that particular value of X/bar{X} and then inferring the depth at that location from the inverse CDF of the scaled depths d/dbard/bar{d}, where the overbar denotes a reach mean. For X/bar{X}, an empirical CDF can be derived directly from pixel values or a probability distribution fitted. Similarly, the CDF of d/dbard/bar{d} can be obtained from field data or from a theoretical model of the frequency distribution of dd within a reach; gamma distributions have been used for this purpose. In essence, the probability distributions calibrate XX to dd while the image provides the spatial distribution of depths. IDQT offers a number of advantages: 1) direct field measurements of dd during image acquisition are not absolutely necessary; 2) because the XX vs. dd relation need not be linear, negative depth estimates along channel margins and shallow bias in pools are avoided; and 3) because individual pixels are not linked to specific depth measurements, accurate geo-referencing of field and image data sets is not critical. Application of OBRA and IDQT to a gravel-bed river indicated that the new, probabilistic algorithm was as accurate as the standard, regression-based approach and lead to more hydraulically reasonable bathymetric maps.

  9. A Quantile Regression Approach to Estimating the Distribution of Anesthetic Procedure Time during Induction.

    PubMed

    Wu, Hsin-Lun; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Hu, Ken-Hua; Langford, Richard M; Tsou, Mei-Yung; Chang, Kuang-Yi

    2015-01-01

    Although procedure time analyses are important for operating room management, it is not easy to extract useful information from clinical procedure time data. A novel approach was proposed to analyze procedure time during anesthetic induction. A two-step regression analysis was performed to explore influential factors of anesthetic induction time (AIT). Linear regression with stepwise model selection was used to select significant correlates of AIT and then quantile regression was employed to illustrate the dynamic relationships between AIT and selected variables at distinct quantiles. A total of 1,060 patients were analyzed. The first and second-year residents (R1-R2) required longer AIT than the third and fourth-year residents and attending anesthesiologists (p = 0.006). Factors prolonging AIT included American Society of Anesthesiologist physical status ≧ III, arterial, central venous and epidural catheterization, and use of bronchoscopy. Presence of surgeon before induction would decrease AIT (p < 0.001). Types of surgery also had significant influence on AIT. Quantile regression satisfactorily estimated extra time needed to complete induction for each influential factor at distinct quantiles. Our analysis on AIT demonstrated the benefit of quantile regression analysis to provide more comprehensive view of the relationships between procedure time and related factors. This novel two-step regression approach has potential applications to procedure time analysis in operating room management. PMID:26241647

  10. A Quantile Regression Approach to Estimating the Distribution of Anesthetic Procedure Time during Induction

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Ken-Hua; Langford, Richard M.; Tsou, Mei-Yung; Chang, Kuang-Yi

    2015-01-01

    Although procedure time analyses are important for operating room management, it is not easy to extract useful information from clinical procedure time data. A novel approach was proposed to analyze procedure time during anesthetic induction. A two-step regression analysis was performed to explore influential factors of anesthetic induction time (AIT). Linear regression with stepwise model selection was used to select significant correlates of AIT and then quantile regression was employed to illustrate the dynamic relationships between AIT and selected variables at distinct quantiles. A total of 1,060 patients were analyzed. The first and second-year residents (R1-R2) required longer AIT than the third and fourth-year residents and attending anesthesiologists (p = 0.006). Factors prolonging AIT included American Society of Anesthesiologist physical status ≧ III, arterial, central venous and epidural catheterization, and use of bronchoscopy. Presence of surgeon before induction would decrease AIT (p < 0.001). Types of surgery also had significant influence on AIT. Quantile regression satisfactorily estimated extra time needed to complete induction for each influential factor at distinct quantiles. Our analysis on AIT demonstrated the benefit of quantile regression analysis to provide more comprehensive view of the relationships between procedure time and related factors. This novel two-step regression approach has potential applications to procedure time analysis in operating room management. PMID:26241647

  11. Analysis of extreme climatic features over South America from CLARIS-LPB ensemble of regional climate models for future conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, E.; Zaninelli, P.; Carril, A.; Menendez, C.; Dominguez, M.

    2012-04-01

    An ensemble of seven regional climate models (RCM) included in the European CLARIS-LPB project (A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin) are used to study how some features related to climatic extremes are projected to be changed by the end of XXIst century. These RCMs are forced by different IPCC-AR4 global climate models (IPSL, ECHAM5 and HadCM3), covering three different 30-year periods: present (1960-1990), near future (2010-2040) and distant future (2070-2100), with 50km of horizontal resolution. These regional climate models have previously been forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis, in a consistent procedure with CORDEX (A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) initiative for the South-America domain. The analysis shows a good agreement among them and the available observational databases to describe the main features of the mean climate of the continent. Here we focus our analysis on some topics of interest related to extreme events, such as the development of diagnostics related to dry-spells length, the structure of the frequency distribution functions over several subregions defined by more or less homogeneous climatic conditions (four sub-basins over the La Plata Basin, the southern part of the Amazon basin, Northeast Brazil, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)), the structure of the annual cycle and their main features and relation with the length of the seasons, or the frequency of anomalous hot or cold events. One shortcoming that must be considered is the lack of observational databases with both time and spatial frequency to validate model outputs. At the same time, one challenging issue of this study is the regional modelling description of a continent where a huge variety of climates are present, from desert to mountain conditions, and from tropical to subtropical regimes. Another basic objective of this preliminary work is also to obtain a measure of the spread among

  12. Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions.

    PubMed

    Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia; Tognetti, Roberto; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, Ĺubica; Dinca, Lucian; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Hervè; Ræbild, Anders; de Luis, Martin; Cvjetkovic, Branislav; Heiri, Caroline; Müller, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., hereafter beech), one of the major native tree species in Europe, is known to be drought sensitive. Thus, the identification of critical thresholds of drought impact intensity and duration are of high interest for assessing the adaptive potential of European beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, ΨPD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs (LD50SWA). We found significant population differences in LD50SWA (10.5-17.8%), and mortality dynamics that suggest a genetic difference in drought resistance between populations. The LD50SWA values correlate significantly with the mean growing season precipitation at population origins, but not with the geographic margins of beech range. Thus, beech range marginality may be more due to climatic conditions than to geographic range. The outcome of this study suggests the genetic variation has a major influence on the varying adaptive potential of the investigated populations. PMID:27379105

  13. Fast and precise point spread function measurements of IR optics at extreme temperatures based on reversed imaging conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melzer, Volker; Heckmann, Hans-Georg; Ritter, Christian; Barenz, Joachim; Raab, Michael

    2010-04-01

    Point Spread Function (PSF), Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) and Ensquared Energy (EE) are important performance indicators of optical systems for surveillance, imaging and target tracking applications. We report on the development of a new measurement method which facilitates fast real time measurement of the two dimensional PSF and related performance parameters of a MWIR optical module under room temperature as well as under extreme temperature conditions. Our new measurement setup uses the law of reversibility of optical paths to capture a highly resolved, magnified image of the PSF. By using of an easy add-on thermally insulating enclosure the optical module can be exposed to and measured under both variable high and low temperatures (-50°C up to 90°C) without any external impact on the measurement. Also line of sight and various off-axis measurements are possible. Common PSF and MTF measurement methods need much more correction algorithms, whilst our method requires mainly a pinhole diameter correction only and allows fast measurements of optical parameters under temperature as well as fast and easy adjustment. Additionally comparison of the captured, highly resolved PSF with optical design data enables purposeful theoretical investigation of occurring optical artifacts.

  14. Communication: A novel method for generating molecular mixtures at extreme conditions: The case of hydrogen and oxygen

    SciTech Connect

    Pravica, Michael Sneed, Daniel; White, Melanie; Wang, Yonggang

    2014-09-07

    We have successfully created a segregated mixture of hydrogen and oxygen at high pressure in a diamond anvil cell using hard x-ray photochemistry. A keyhole (two holes connected by an opening) sample chamber was created in a metallic gasket to support two segregated powders of ammonia borane and potassium perchlorate, respectively, in each hole at a pressure of ∼5.0 GPa. Both holes were separately irradiated with synchrotron hard x-rays to release molecular oxygen and molecular hydrogen, respectively. Upon irradiation of the first KClO{sub 4}-containing hole, solid reddish-orange O{sub 2} appeared in the region of irradiation and molecular oxygen was found to diffuse throughout the entire sample region. The second ammonia borane-containing hole was then irradiated and H{sub 2} was observed to form via Raman spectroscopy. Water also was observed in the ammonia borane-containing hole and possibly (in the form of ice VII) in the second hole. This unique experiment demonstrates the ability to easily create solid mixtures of simple molecular systems via x-ray irradiation and then react them via further irradiation which will aid the study of chemistry under extreme conditions.

  15. Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia; Tognetti, Roberto; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, Ĺubica; Dinca, Lucian; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Hervè; Ræbild, Anders; de Luis, Martin; Cvjetkovic, Branislav; Heiri, Caroline; Müller, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., hereafter beech), one of the major native tree species in Europe, is known to be drought sensitive. Thus, the identification of critical thresholds of drought impact intensity and duration are of high interest for assessing the adaptive potential of European beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, ΨPD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs (LD50SWA). We found significant population differences in LD50SWA (10.5–17.8%), and mortality dynamics that suggest a genetic difference in drought resistance between populations. The LD50SWA values correlate significantly with the mean growing season precipitation at population origins, but not with the geographic margins of beech range. Thus, beech range marginality may be more due to climatic conditions than to geographic range. The outcome of this study suggests the genetic variation has a major influence on the varying adaptive potential of the investigated populations. PMID:27379105

  16. Exploratory results from a new rotary shear designed to reproduce the extreme deformation conditions of crustal earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Toro, G.; Nielsen, S. B.; Spagnuolo, E.; Smith, S.; Violay, M. E.; Niemeijer, A. R.; Di Felice, F.; Di Stefano, G.; Romeo, G.; Scarlato, P.

    2011-12-01

    A challenging goal in experimental rock deformation is to reproduce the extreme deformation conditions typical of coseismic slip in crustal earthquakes: large slip (up to 50 m), slip rates (0.1-10 m/s), accelerations (> 10 m/s2) and normal stress (> 50 MPa). Moreover, fault zones usually contain non-cohesive rocks (gouges) and fluids. The integration of all these deformation conditions is such a technical challenge that there is currently no apparatus in the world that can reproduce seismic slip. Yet, the determination of rock friction at seismic slip rates remains one of the main unknowns in earthquake physics, as it cannot be determined (or very approximately) by seismic wave inversion analysis. In the last thirty years, rotary shear apparatus were designed that combine large normal stresses and slip but low slip rates (high-pressure rotary shears first designed by Tullis) or low normal stresses but large slip rates and slip (rotary shears first designed by Shimamoto). Here we present the results of experiments using a newly-constructed Slow to HIgh Velocity Apparatus (SHIVA), installed at INGV in Rome, which extends the combination of normal stress, slip and slip rate achieved by previous apparatus and reproduces the conditions likely to occur during an earthquake in the shallow crust. SHIVA uses two brushless engines (max power 300 kW, max torque 930 Nm) and an air actuator (thrust 5 tons) in a rotary shear configuration (nominally infinite displacement) to slide hollow rock cylinders (30/50 mm int./ext. diameter) at slip rates ranging from 10 micron/s up to 6.5 m/s, accelerations up to 80 m/s2 and normal stresses up to 50 MPa. SHIVA can also perform experiments in which the torque on the sample (rather than the slip rate) is progressively increased until spontaneous failure occurs: this experimental capability should better reproduce natural conditions. The apparatus is equipped with a sample chamber to carry out experiments in the presence of fluids (up to 15

  17. QMLE: fast, robust, and efficient estimation of distribution functions based on quantiles.

    PubMed

    Brown, Scott; Heathcote, Andrew

    2003-11-01

    Quantile maximum likelihood (QML) is an estimation technique, proposed by Heathcote, Brown, and Mewhort (2002), that provides robust and efficient estimates of distribution parameters, typically for response time data, in sample sizes as small as 40 observations. In view of the computational difficulty inherent in implementing QML, we provide open-source Fortran 90 code that calculates QML estimates for parameters of the ex-Gaussian distribution, as well as standard maximum likelihood estimates. We show that parameter estimates from QML are asymptotically unbiased and normally distributed. Our software provides asymptotically correct standard error and parameter intercorrelation estimates, as well as producing the outputs required for constructing quantile-quantile plots. The code is parallelizable and can easily be modified to estimate parameters from other distributions. Compiled binaries, as well as the source code, example analysis files, and a detailed manual, are available for free on the Internet. PMID:14748492

  18. Semiparametric Bayesian estimation of quantile function for breast cancer survival data with cured fraction.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Cherry; Cobre, Juliana; Polpo, Adriano; Sinha, Debjayoti

    2016-09-01

    Existing cure-rate survival models are generally not convenient for modeling and estimating the survival quantiles of a patient with specified covariate values. This paper proposes a novel class of cure-rate model, the transform-both-sides cure-rate model (TBSCRM), that can be used to make inferences about both the cure-rate and the survival quantiles. We develop the Bayesian inference about the covariate effects on the cure-rate as well as on the survival quantiles via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) tools. We also show that the TBSCRM-based Bayesian method outperforms existing cure-rate models based methods in our simulation studies and in application to the breast cancer survival data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. PMID:27162061

  19. Spatial quantile regression using INLA with applications to childhood overweight in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Mtambo, Owen P L; Masangwi, Salule J; Kazembe, Lawrence N M

    2015-04-01

    Analyses of childhood overweight have mainly used mean regression. However, using quantile regression is more appropriate as it provides flexibility to analyse the determinants of overweight corresponding to quantiles of interest. The main objective of this study was to fit a Bayesian additive quantile regression model with structured spatial effects for childhood overweight in Malawi using the 2010 Malawi DHS data. Inference was fully Bayesian using R-INLA package. The significant determinants of childhood overweight ranged from socio-demographic factors such as type of residence to child and maternal factors such as child age and maternal BMI. We observed significant positive structured spatial effects on childhood overweight in some districts of Malawi. We recommended that the childhood malnutrition policy makers should consider timely interventions based on risk factors as identified in this paper including spatial targets of interventions. PMID:26046633

  20. Rich Non-centrosymmetry in a Na-U-Te Oxo-System Achieved under Extreme Conditions.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Bin; Kegler, Philip; Bosbach, Dirk; Alekseev, Evgeny V

    2016-05-01

    Two new sodium uranyl tellurites and two new sodium uranyl tellurates have been synthesized from high-temperature/high-pressure conditions and structurally characterized. We demonstrated that crystalline phases, forming in a Na-U-Te system under extreme conditions, appear to favorably have non-centrosymmetric structures. Three out of four novel uranyl tellurium compounds, Na[(UO2)Te(IV)2O5(OH)], Na2[(UO2)(Te(VI)2O8)], and Na2[(UO2)Te(VI)O5], crystallize in non-centrosymmetric space groups. The crystal structure of Na[(UO2)Te(IV)2O5(OH)] is based on two-dimensional [UO2Te2O5(OH)](-) corrugated sheets, which are charge balanced by guest Na(+) cations. The structure of Na2[(UO2)Te(VI)2O8] is constructed from [(UO2)2Te2O8](2+) anionic layers composed of UO7 pentagonal bipyramids and TeO6 octahedra. Na2[(UO2)(Te(VI)O5)] is a new type of three-dimensional anionic open framework built from the interconnection of UO7 pentagonal bipyramids and TeO6 octahedra with different types of interlacing channels within the U-Te anionic framework. Na[(UO2)Te(IV)6O13(OH)], as the only centrosymmetric compound isolated in the Na-U-Te family, is crystallized in space group Pa3̅, and its structure is highly related to that of cliffordite (UO2(Te3O7)), which is composed from UO8 hexagonal bipyramids and TeO5 square pyramids. The vibrational modes associated with U-O, Te(IV)-O, and Te(VI)-O bonds are discussed, and the Raman spectra of the four compounds are characterized for signature bands. PMID:27077323

  1. Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López López, P.; Verkade, J. S.; Weerts, A. H.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2014-09-01

    The present study comprises an intercomparison of different configurations of a statistical post-processor that is used to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty. It builds on earlier work by Weerts, Winsemius and Verkade (2011; hereafter referred to as WWV2011), who used the quantile regression technique to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty using a deterministic water level forecast as a predictor. The various configurations are designed to address two issues with the WWV2011 implementation: (i) quantile crossing, which causes non-strictly rising cumulative predictive distributions, and (ii) the use of linear quantile models to describe joint distributions that may not be strictly linear. Thus, four configurations were built: (i) a ''classical" quantile regression, (ii) a configuration that implements a non-crossing quantile technique, (iii) a configuration where quantile models are built in normal space after application of the normal quantile transformation (NQT) (similar to the implementation used by WWV2011), and (iv) a configuration that builds quantile model separately on separate domains of the predictor. Using each configuration, four reforecasting series of water levels at 14 stations in the upper Severn River were established. The quality of these four series was intercompared using a set of graphical and numerical verification metrics. Intercomparison showed that reliability and sharpness vary across configurations, but in none of the configurations do these two forecast quality aspects improve simultaneously. Further analysis shows that skills in terms of the Brier skill score, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and relative operating characteristic score is very similar across the four configurations.

  2. Assessment of hydrological extremes in the basins of Shilka and Argun rivers (Far East of Russia) in changing conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolova, Daria; Semenova, Olga; Vinogradova, Tatyana

    2016-04-01

    Eastern Transbaikal region of Russia is formed by the basins of the Argun and Shilka Rivers (the upreaches of the Amur River). This region is simultaneously under the flood and drought hazard threat due to the combination of dry continental climate and monsoon impacts. Observed intensification of extreme hazard events in the region requires the scientific base of development of adaptation and mitigation measures. The aim of the study is the analysis of long-term variability of hydrological characteristics of the region by the means of mathematical statistics and projection of hydrological extremes in changing conditions of climate and landscapes based on hydrological modelling. Our research consisted of two stages. Firstly, we developed the database of observed daily hydrographs for about 50 runoff gauges of the region with average continuous period of observations 50 years (up to 2013) and areas from 12.3 to 200000 km2. Statistical analysis of the data was conducted and the trends of changes were assessed and analyzed. At the second stage we selected four river watersheds as the objects of modelling, namely, the gauging stations at the rivers Zun-Cooka, Gazipur, Borzya and Mogoytuy, ranging in size from 100 to 4000 km2. The basins are characterized by the variety of runoff conditions. Average elevation is about 650 m, hilly plateaus dominate the relief. The landscapes are taiga and forest-steppe with discontinuous permafrost. The climate is continental, annual precipitation varies within the range 200-450 mm, runoff - from 30 to 100 mm. The objectives of modelling stage were 1) the estimation of the hydrological model's parameters and its validation at historical data, 2) development of conceptual scenarios of changes of climate and landscapes, 3) running the model in projection mode to assess the implications of possible changes in hydrological regime. High variability of climate and hydrological regime do not allow for conventional modelling procedures to be

  3. Coordinated Hard Sphere Mixture (CHaSM): A fast approximate model for oxide and silicate melts at extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolf, A. S.; Asimow, P. D.; Stevenson, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent first-principles calculations (e.g. Stixrude, 2009; de Koker, 2013), shock-wave experiments (Mosenfelder, 2009), and diamond-anvil cell investigations (Sanloup, 2013) indicate that silicate melts undergo complex structural evolution at high pressure. The observed increase in cation-coordination (e.g. Karki, 2006; 2007) induces higher compressibilities and lower adiabatic thermal gradients in melts as compared with their solid counterparts. These properties are crucial for understanding the evolution of impact-generated magma oceans, which are dominated by the poorly understood behavior of silicates at mantle pressures and temperatures (e.g. Stixrude et al. 2009). Probing these conditions is difficult for both theory and experiment, especially given the large compositional space (MgO-SiO2-FeO-Al2O3-etc). We develop a new model to understand and predict the behavior of oxide and silicate melts at extreme P-T conditions (Wolf et al., 2015). The Coordinated Hard Sphere Mixture (CHaSM) extends the Hard Sphere mixture model, accounting for the range of coordination states for each cation in the liquid. Using approximate analytic expressions for the hard sphere model, this fast statistical method compliments classical and first-principles methods, providing accurate thermodynamic and structural property predictions for melts. This framework is applied to the MgO system, where model parameters are trained on a collection of crystal polymorphs, producing realistic predictions of coordination evolution and the equation of state of MgO melt over a wide P-T range. Typical Mg-coordination numbers are predicted to evolve continuously from 5.25 (0 GPa) to 8.5 (250 GPa), comparing favorably with first-principles Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. We begin extending the model to a simplified mantle chemistry using empirical potentials (generally accurate over moderate pressure ranges, <~30 GPa), yielding predictions rooted in statistical representations of melt structure

  4. Long-term monitoring reveals cold-water corals in extreme conditions off the southeast US coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mienis, F.; Duineveld, G.; Davies, A. J.; Ross, S. W.; Lavaleye, M.; Van Weering, T.

    2011-12-01

    Cold-water corals are common on the SE slope of the US (SEUS) from Florida to Cape Hatteras between depths of 400-600 m. Near Cape Hatteras cold-water corals have formed mound structures that are up to 60 m high, which are mainly covered by living colonies of the coral species Lophelia pertusa. Past explorations of major reef sites of N Carolina using remote and manned submersibles have shown living Lophelia pertusa colonies on the current facing side of the mound structures and a high biodiversity of associated fauna, especially fish. The coral areas lie in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream characterized by strong currents transporting relatively warm water northwards along the SEUS slope. Thus far little is known about the environmental conditions inside the SEUS coral communities and particularly the effects of the nearby Gulf Stream. In December 2009 two autonomous benthic landers were deployed amidst Lophelia reefs off Cape Lookout (NC) for a period of 6 months to define oceanographic patterns that are relevant for the development and persistence of cold-water coral ecosystems. Landers recorded temperature, fluorescence, turbidity, and current speed and direction. Furthermore, a sediment trap was mounted on the landers that collected material at a 16-days interval. A first analysis of the lander data shows that instability of the Gulf Stream causes rapid rises in temperature, current speed and turbidity lasting for days to more than a week. Peak temperature and turbidity levels are the highest measured in coral habitats studied so far. We did not see clear cut effects of Gulf Stream instabilities on the near bed flux of phytodetritus as opposed to reports of meanders inducing upwelling and enhanced production in the photic zone. Data analyzed so far suggest that cwc habitats of Cape Lookout experience extreme and adverse conditions for prolonged periods. The findings of this study are compared with methodologically similar studies that have been conducted in

  5. DNA Storage under High Temperature Conditions Does Not Affect Performance in Human Leukocyte Antigen Genotyping via Next-Generation Sequencing (DNA Integrity Maintained in Extreme Conditions)

    PubMed Central

    McDevitt, Shana L; Hogan, Michael E; Pappas, Derek J; Wong, Lily Y

    2014-01-01

    Background: Stable dry-state storage of DNA is desirable to minimize required storage space and to reduce electrical and shipping costs. DNA purified from various commercially available dry-state stabilization matrices has been used successfully in downstream molecular applications (e.g., quantitative polymerase chain reaction [qPCR], microarray, and sequence-based genotyping). However, standard DNA storage conditions still include freezing of DNA eluted in aqueous buffers or nuclease-free water. Broad implementation of dry-state, long-term DNA storage requires enhancement of such dry-state DNA stabilization products to control for temperature fluctuations at specimen collection, transit, and storage. This study tested the integrity of genomic DNA subjected to long-term storage on GenTegra™ DNA stabilization matrices (GenTegra LLC, Pleasanton, CA) at extreme conditions, as defined by a 4-year storage period at ambient temperature with an initial incubation for 7 months at 37°C, 56°C, or ambient temperature. Subsequently, purified DNA performance and integrity were measured by qPCR and next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based human leokocyte antigen (HLA) genotyping. Results: High molecular weight genomic DNA samples were recovered from the GenTegra product matrix and exhibited integrity comparable to a highly characterized commercial standard under assessment by qPCR. Samples were genotyped for classical HLA loci using next generation sequencing-based methodolgy on the Roche 454 GS Junior instrument. Amplification efficiency, sequence coverage, and sequence quality were all comparable with those produced from a cell line DNA sequenced as a control. No significant differences were observed in the mean, median, or mode quality scores between samples and controls (p≥0.4). Conclusions: Next generation HLA genotyping was chosen to test the integrity of GenTegra-treated genomic DNA due to the requirment for long sequence reads to genotype the highly polymorphic

  6. Analysis of the influence of quantile regression model on mainland tourists' service satisfaction performance.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wen-Cheng; Cho, Wen-Chien; Chen, Yin-Jen

    2014-01-01

    It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models. PMID:24574916

  7. Gender Gaps in Mathematics, Science and Reading Achievements in Muslim Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shafiq, M. Najeeb

    2013-01-01

    Using quantile regression analyses, this study examines gender gaps in mathematics, science, and reading in Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Jordan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Qatar, Tunisia, and Turkey among 15-year-old students. The analyses show that girls in Azerbaijan achieve as well as boys in mathematics and science and overachieve in reading. In Jordan,…

  8. Gender Gaps in Mathematics, Science and Reading Achievements in Muslim Countries: Evidence from Quantile Regression Analyses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shafiq, M. Najeeb

    2011-01-01

    Using quantile regression analyses, this study examines gender gaps in mathematics, science, and reading in Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Jordan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Qatar, Tunisia, and Turkey among 15 year-old students. The analyses show that girls in Azerbaijan achieve as well as boys in mathematics and science and overachieve in reading. In Jordan,…

  9. Analysis of the Influence of Quantile Regression Model on Mainland Tourists' Service Satisfaction Performance

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Wen-Cheng; Cho, Wen-Chien; Chen, Yin-Jen

    2014-01-01

    It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models. PMID:24574916

  10. What a Quantile Approach Can Tell Us about Returns to Education in Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan; Barros, Carlos Pestana; Vieira, Jose A. C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper seeks to analyse the relationship between wages and education at a European level, using a quantile regression in order to be able to extend the study along the whole wage distribution. This analysis is carried out for a sample of 14 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,…

  11. The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

    2007-12-01

    The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

  12. Generalizing Quantile Regression for Counting Processes with Applications to Recurrent Events

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiaoyan; Peng, Limin; Huang, Yijian; Lai, HuiChuan J.

    2015-01-01

    In survival analysis, quantile regression has become a useful approach to account for covariate effects on the distribution of an event time of interest. In this paper, we discuss how quantile regression can be extended to model counting processes, and thus lead to a broader regression framework for survival data. We specifically investigate the proposed modeling of counting processes for recurrent events data. We show that the new recurrent events model retains the desirable features of quantile regression such as easy interpretation and good model flexibility, while accommodating various observation schemes encountered in observational studies. We develop a general theoretical and inferential framework for the new counting process model, which unifies with an existing method for censored quantile regression. As another useful contribution of this work, we propose a sample-based covariance estimation procedure, which provides a useful complement to the prevailing bootstrapping approach. We demonstrate the utility of our proposals via simulation studies and an application to a dataset from the US Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR). PMID:27212738

  13. Frictional behavior and microstructures of calcite fault gouges deformed under extreme conditions of normal stress and sliding velocity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, S. A.; Billi, A.; Spagnuolo, E.; Di Toro, G.; Nielsen, S. B.; Violay, M. E.

    2011-12-01

    In recent years several experimental studies have been performed using rotary-shear apparatus to investigate the frictional behavior of gouge materials at seismic slip rates. However, because of technical difficulties confining gouge layers, a majority of these experiments were conducted at normal stresses <2-3MPa, making extrapolation to natural conditions challenging. Here, we present results from an experimental study on calcite gouges (<250μm grain size) deformed in a purpose-built sample holder and using a rotary-shear apparatus at INGV, Rome. Ring-shaped (25/45mm int./ext. diameter), 2.8mm-thick layers of gouge were deformed up to 34MPa normal stress, at slip rates of 10μm/s - 3m/s, in both room-dry and water-present conditions. A peak slip rate of 3m/s was achieved after 0.5s, and total displacements were 1-3m. CO2 emissions were monitored using a mass spectrometer connected to a capillary tube positioned approximately 1cm from the gouge sample holder. Samples were preserved in ultra-low viscosity resin for optical and Field-Emission SEM observations. At slip rates >0.3m/s frictional strength, μ, increases to a peak value of 0.6-1.0 followed by a rapid decay to a lower steady-state value, μss, before finally undergoing dynamic strength recovery during decelerating slip. CO2 starts to be liberated almost instantaneously (within 500μm of slip) during acceleration and reaches a peak value during steady-state sliding of up to 10,000ppm, before decreasing to 380-420ppm within a few seconds following the experiment. μss decreases with increasing slip rate, but in contrast to previous experiments we find that extremely low values of μss<0.2 are only achieved at a slip rate of 1m/s for normal stresses >22MPa. An unexpected result is that steady-state shear stress at slip rates >1m/s does not increase monotonically (either linearly or not, e.g. in the presence of lubrication) with normal stress, but begins to decrease above a normal stress of 15-20MPa, a

  14. Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

    In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

  15. A Wind-Tunnel Investigation of Rotor Behavior Under Extreme Operating Conditions with a Description of Blade Oscillations Attributed to Pitch-Lag Coupling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKee, John W.; Naeseth, Rodger L.

    1959-01-01

    A wind-tunnel investigation was made to study the behavior of a model helicopter rotor under extreme operating conditions. A 1/8-scale model of the front rotor of a tandem helicopter was built and tested to obtaining blade motion and rotor aerodynamic characteristics for conditions that could be encountered in high-speed pullout maneuvers. The data are presented without analysis. A description is given in an appendix of blade oscillations that were experienced during the course of the investigation and of the part that blade pitch-lag coupling played in contributing to the oscillatory condition.

  16. Participation and performance trends in ultra-endurance running races under extreme conditions - ‘Spartathlon’ versus ‘Badwater’

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    approximately 40 to 45 years, and (c) the sex difference was at approximately 20%. Women will not outrun men in both Badwater and Spartathlon races. Master ultramarathoners can achieve a high level of performance in ultramarathons greater than 200 km under extreme conditions. PMID:23848985

  17. How extreme are extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  18. The Extreme Conditions Beamline at PETRA III, DESY: Possibilities to conduct time resolved monochromatic diffraction experiments in dynamic and laser heated DAC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liermann, H.-P.; Morgenroth, W.; Ehnes, A.; Berghäuser, A.; Winkler, B.; Franz, H.; Weckert, E.

    2010-03-01

    We present plans for the new Extreme Conditions Beamline at PETRA III, DESY, Germany. The beamline is being designed and built with the specific goal to explore time resolved high-pressure and -temperature x-ray diffraction experiments in the dynamic and laser heated diamond anvil cell. Within we discuss the conceptual design of the optical components and experimental setup to conduct monochromatic high-pressure powder diffraction experiments in the sub-second time regime.

  19. Extreme Air Pollution Conditions Adversely Affect Blood Pressure and Insulin Resistance: The Air Pollution and Cardiometabolic Disease Study.

    PubMed

    Brook, Robert D; Sun, Zhichao; Brook, Jeffrey R; Zhao, Xiaoyi; Ruan, Yanping; Yan, Jianhua; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Rao, Xiaoquan; Duan, Fengkui; Sun, Lixian; Liang, Ruijuan; Lian, Hui; Zhang, Shuyang; Fang, Quan; Gu, Dongfeng; Sun, Qinghua; Fan, Zhongjie; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    Mounting evidence supports that fine particulate matter adversely affects cardiometabolic diseases particularly in susceptible individuals; however, health effects induced by the extreme concentrations within megacities in Asia are not well described. We enrolled 65 nonsmoking adults with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in the Beijing metropolitan area into a panel study of 4 repeated visits across 4 seasons since 2012. Daily ambient fine particulate matter and personal black carbon levels ranged from 9.0 to 552.5 µg/m(3) and 0.2 to 24.5 µg/m(3), respectively, with extreme levels observed during January 2013. Cumulative fine particulate matter exposure windows across the prior 1 to 7 days were significantly associated with systolic blood pressure elevations ranging from 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.3-3.7) to 2.7 (0.6-4.8) mm Hg per SD increase (67.2 µg/m(3)), whereas cumulative black carbon exposure during the previous 2 to 5 days were significantly associated with ranges in elevations in diastolic blood pressure from 1.3 (0.0-2.5) to 1.7 (0.3-3.2) mm Hg per SD increase (3.6 µg/m(3)). Both black carbon and fine particulate matter were significantly associated with worsening insulin resistance (0.18 [0.01-0.36] and 0.22 [0.04-0.39] unit increase per SD increase of personal-level black carbon and 0.18 [0.02-0.34] and 0.22 [0.08-0.36] unit increase per SD increase of ambient fine particulate matter on lag days 4 and 5). These results provide important global public health warnings that air pollution may pose a risk to cardiometabolic health even at the extremely high concentrations faced by billions of people in the developing world today. PMID:26573709

  20. Heterogeneous effects of oil shocks on exchange rates: evidence from a quantile regression approach.

    PubMed

    Su, Xianfang; Zhu, Huiming; You, Wanhai; Ren, Yinghua

    2016-01-01

    The determinants of exchange rates have attracted considerable attention among researchers over the past several decades. Most studies, however, ignore the possibility that the impact of oil shocks on exchange rates could vary across the exchange rate returns distribution. We employ a quantile regression approach to address this issue. Our results indicate that the effect of oil shocks on exchange rates is heterogeneous across quantiles. A large US depreciation or appreciation tends to heighten the effects of oil shocks on exchange rate returns. Positive oil demand shocks lead to appreciation pressures in oil-exporting countries and this result is robust across lower and upper return distributions. These results offer rich and useful information for investors and decision-makers. PMID:27516925

  1. On Estimation of Covariate-Specific Residual Time Quantiles under the Proportional Hazards Model

    PubMed Central

    Crouch, Luis Alexander; May, Susanne; Chen, Ying Qing

    2015-01-01

    Estimation and inference in time-to-event analysis typically focus on hazard functions and their ratios under the Cox proportional hazards model. These hazard functions, while popular in the statistical literature, are not always easily or intuitively communicated in clinical practice, such as in the settings of patient counseling or resource planning. Expressing and comparing quantiles of event times may allow for easier understanding. In this article we focus on residual time, i.e., the remaining time-to-event at an arbitrary time t given that the event has yet to occur by t. In particular, we develop estimation and inference procedures for covariate-specific quantiles of the residual time under the Cox model. Our methods and theory are assessed by simulations, and demonstrated in analysis of two real data sets. PMID:26058825

  2. A probabilistic risk assessment for dengue fever by a threshold based-quantile regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiu, Chuan-Hung; Tan, Yih-Chi; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chien, Lung-Chang; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2014-05-01

    This article introduces an important concept "return period" to analyze potential incident rate of dengue fever by bringing together two models: the quantile regression model and the threshold-based method. The return period provided the frequency of incidence of dengue fever, and established the risk maps for potential incidence of dengue fever to point out highest risk in certain areas. A threshold-based linear quantile regression model was constructed to find significantly main effects and interactions based on collinearity test and stepwise selection, and also showed the performance of our model via pseudo R2. Finally, the spatial risk maps of the specified return periods and average incident rates were given, and indicated that high population density place (e.g., residential area), water conservancy facilities, and corresponding interactions could lead to a positive influence on dengue fever. These factors would be the key point to disease protection in a given study area.

  3. Quantiles, parametric-select density estimation, and bi-information parameter estimators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parzen, E.

    1982-01-01

    A quantile-based approach to statistical analysis and probability modeling of data is presented which formulates statistical inference problems as functional inference problems in which the parameters to be estimated are density functions. Density estimators can be non-parametric (computed independently of model identified) or parametric-select (approximated by finite parametric models that can provide standard models whose fit can be tested). Exponential models and autoregressive models are approximating densities which can be justified as maximum entropy for respectively the entropy of a probability density and the entropy of a quantile density. Applications of these ideas are outlined to the problems of modeling: (1) univariate data; (2) bivariate data and tests for independence; and (3) two samples and likelihood ratios. It is proposed that bi-information estimation of a density function can be developed by analogy to the problem of identification of regression models.

  4. A generalized sine condition and performance comparison of Wolter type II and Wolter-Schwarzschild extreme ultraviolet telescopes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, T. T.

    1984-01-01

    An equation similar to the Abbe sine condition is derived for a Wolter type II telescope. This equation and the sine condition are then combined to produce a so called generalized sine condition. Using the law of reflection, Fermat's principle, the generalized sine condition, and simple geometry the surface equations for a Wolter type II telescope and an equivalent Wolter-Schwarzschild telescope are calculated. The performances of the telescopes are compared in terms of rms blur circle radius at the Gaussian focal plane and at best focus.

  5. The Critical Role of N- and C-Terminal Contact in Protein Stability and Folding of a Family 10 Xylanase under Extreme Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Bhardwaj, Amit; Leelavathi, Sadhu; Mazumdar-Leighton, Sudeshna; Ghosh, Amit; Ramakumar, Suryanarayanarao; Reddy, Vanga S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Stabilization strategies adopted by proteins under extreme conditions are very complex and involve various kinds of interactions. Recent studies have shown that a large proportion of proteins have their N- and C-terminal elements in close contact and suggested they play a role in protein folding and stability. However, the biological significance of this contact remains elusive. Methodology In the present study, we investigate the role of N- and C-terminal residue interaction using a family 10 xylanase (BSX) with a TIM-barrel structure that shows stability under high temperature, alkali pH, and protease and SDS treatment. Based on crystal structure, an aromatic cluster was identified that involves Phe4, Trp6 and Tyr343 holding the N- and C-terminus together; this is a unique and important feature of this protein that might be crucial for folding and stability under poly-extreme conditions. Conclusion A series of mutants was created to disrupt this aromatic cluster formation and study the loss of stability and function under given conditions. While the deletions of Phe4 resulted in loss of stability, removal of Trp6 and Tyr343 affected in vivo folding and activity. Alanine substitution with Phe4, Trp6 and Tyr343 drastically decreased stability under all parameters studied. Importantly, substitution of Phe4 with Trp increased stability in SDS treatment. Mass spectrometry results of limited proteolysis further demonstrated that the Arg344 residue is highly susceptible to trypsin digestion in sensitive mutants such as ΔF4, W6A and Y343A, suggesting again that disruption of the Phe4-Trp6-Tyr343 (F-W-Y) cluster destabilizes the N- and C-terminal interaction. Our results underscore the importance of N- and C-terminal contact through aromatic interactions in protein folding and stability under extreme conditions, and these results may be useful to improve the stability of other proteins under suboptimal conditions. PMID:20596542

  6. Hurst exponent estimation of self-affine time series using quantile graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campanharo, Andriana S. L. O.; Ramos, Fernando M.

    2016-02-01

    In the context of dynamical systems, time series analysis is frequently used to identify the underlying nature of a phenomenon of interest from a sequence of observations. For signals with a self-affine structure, like fractional Brownian motions (fBm), the Hurst exponent H is one of the key parameters. Here, the use of quantile graphs (QGs) for the estimation of H is proposed. A QG is generated by mapping the quantiles of a time series into nodes of a graph. H is then computed directly as the power-law scaling exponent of the mean jump length performed by a random walker on the QG, for different time differences between the time series data points. The QG method for estimating the Hurst exponent was applied to fBm with different H values. Comparison with the exact H values used to generate the motions showed an excellent agreement. For a given time series length, estimation error depends basically on the statistical framework used for determining the exponent of the power-law model. The QG method is numerically simple and has only one free parameter, Q, the number of quantiles/nodes. With a simple modification, it can be extended to the analysis of fractional Gaussian noises.

  7. Quantile regression for the statistical analysis of immunological data with many non-detects

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Immunological parameters are hard to measure. A well-known problem is the occurrence of values below the detection limit, the non-detects. Non-detects are a nuisance, because classical statistical analyses, like ANOVA and regression, cannot be applied. The more advanced statistical techniques currently available for the analysis of datasets with non-detects can only be used if a small percentage of the data are non-detects. Methods and results Quantile regression, a generalization of percentiles to regression models, models the median or higher percentiles and tolerates very high numbers of non-detects. We present a non-technical introduction and illustrate it with an implementation to real data from a clinical trial. We show that by using quantile regression, groups can be compared and that meaningful linear trends can be computed, even if more than half of the data consists of non-detects. Conclusion Quantile regression is a valuable addition to the statistical methods that can be used for the analysis of immunological datasets with non-detects. PMID:22769433

  8. Geographically Weighted Quantile Regression (GWQR): An Application to U.S. Mortality Data

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Vivian Yi-Ju; Deng, Wen-Shuenn; Yang, Tse-Chuan; Matthews, Stephen A.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, techniques have been developed to explore spatial non-stationarity and to model the entire distribution of a regressand. The former is mainly addressed by geographically weighted regression (GWR), and the latter by quantile regression (QR). However, little attention has been paid to combining these analytical techniques. The goal of this article is to fill this gap by introducing geographically weighted quantile regression (GWQR). This study briefly reviews GWR and QR, respectively, and then outlines their synergy and a new approach, GWQR. The estimations of GWQR parameters and their standard errors, the cross-validation bandwidth selection criterion, and the non-stationarity test are discussed. We apply GWQR to U.S. county data as an example, with mortality as the dependent variable and five social determinants as explanatory covariates. Maps summarize analytic results at the 5, 25, 50, 75, and 95 percentiles. We found that the associations between mortality and determinants vary not only spatially, but also simultaneously across the distribution of mortality. These new findings provide insights into the mortality literature, and are relevant to public policy and health promotion. Our GWQR approach bridges two important statistical approaches, and facilitates spatial quantile-based statistical analyses. PMID:25342860

  9. Trait Mindfulness as a Limiting Factor for Residual Depressive Symptoms: An Explorative Study Using Quantile Regression

    PubMed Central

    Radford, Sholto; Eames, Catrin; Brennan, Kate; Lambert, Gwladys; Crane, Catherine; Williams, J. Mark G.; Duggan, Danielle S.; Barnhofer, Thorsten

    2014-01-01

    Mindfulness has been suggested to be an important protective factor for emotional health. However, this effect might vary with regard to context. This study applied a novel statistical approach, quantile regression, in order to investigate the relation between trait mindfulness and residual depressive symptoms in individuals with a history of recurrent depression, while taking into account symptom severity and number of episodes as contextual factors. Rather than fitting to a single indicator of central tendency, quantile regression allows exploration of relations across the entire range of the response variable. Analysis of self-report data from 274 participants with a history of three or more previous episodes of depression showed that relatively higher levels of mindfulness were associated with relatively lower levels of residual depressive symptoms. This relationship was most pronounced near the upper end of the response distribution and moderated by the number of previous episodes of depression at the higher quantiles. The findings suggest that with lower levels of mindfulness, residual symptoms are less constrained and more likely to be influenced by other factors. Further, the limiting effect of mindfulness on residual symptoms is most salient in those with higher numbers of episodes. PMID:24988072

  10. Quantile Regression Adjusting for Dependent Censoring from Semi-Competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Li, Ruosha; Peng, Limin

    2014-01-01

    Summary In this work, we study quantile regression when the response is an event time subject to potentially dependent censoring. We consider the semi-competing risks setting, where time to censoring remains observable after the occurrence of the event of interest. While such a scenario frequently arises in biomedical studies, most of current quantile regression methods for censored data are not applicable because they generally require the censoring time and the event time be independent. By imposing rather mild assumptions on the association structure between the time-to-event response and the censoring time variable, we propose quantile regression procedures, which allow us to garner a comprehensive view of the covariate effects on the event time outcome as well as to examine the informativeness of censoring. An efficient and stable algorithm is provided for implementing the new method. We establish the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators including uniform consistency and weak convergence. The theoretical development may serve as a useful template for addressing estimating settings that involve stochastic integrals. Extensive simulation studies suggest that the proposed method performs well with moderate sample sizes. We illustrate the practical utility of our proposals through an application to a bone marrow transplant trial. PMID:25574152

  11. Near-extremal Black Holes as Initial Conditions of Long GRB Supernovae and Probes of Their Gravitational Wave Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Putten, Maurice H. P. M.

    2015-09-01

    Long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) associated with supernovae and short GRBs with extended emission (SGRBEE) from mergers are probably powered by black holes as a common inner engine, as their prompt GRB emission satisfies the same Amati correlation in the Ep,i-Eiso plane. We introduce modified Bardeen equations to identify hyper-accretion driving newly formed black holes in core-collapse supernovae to near-extremal spin as a precursor to prompt GRB emission. Subsequent spin-down is observed in the BATSE catalog of long GRBs. Spin-down provides a natural unification of long durations associated with the lifetime of black hole spin for normal long GRBs and SGRBEEs, given the absence of major fallback matter in mergers. The results point to major emissions unseen in high frequency gravitational waves. A novel matched filtering method is described for LIGO-Virgo and KAGRA broadband probes of nearby core-collapse supernovae at essentially maximal sensitivity.

  12. Heterotrophic bacteria from an extremely phosphate-poor lake have conditionally reduced phosphorus demand and utilize diverse sources of phosphorus.

    PubMed

    Yao, Mengyin; Elling, Felix J; Jones, CarriAyne; Nomosatryo, Sulung; Long, Christopher P; Crowe, Sean A; Antoniewicz, Maciek R; Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Maresca, Julia A

    2016-02-01

    Heterotrophic Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria were isolated from Lake Matano, Indonesia, a stratified, ferruginous (iron-rich), ultra-oligotrophic lake with phosphate concentrations below 50 nM. Here, we describe the growth of eight strains of heterotrophic bacteria on a variety of soluble and insoluble sources of phosphorus. When transferred to medium without added phosphorus (P), the isolates grow slowly, their RNA content falls to as low as 1% of cellular dry weight, and 86-100% of the membrane lipids are replaced with amino- or glycolipids. Similar changes in lipid composition have been observed in marine photoautotrophs and soil heterotrophs, and similar flexibility in phosphorus sources has been demonstrated in marine and soil-dwelling heterotrophs. Our results demonstrate that heterotrophs isolated from this unusual environment alter their macromolecular composition, which allows the organisms to grow efficiently even in their extremely phosphorus-limited environment. PMID:26415900

  13. Remote ischaemic conditioning in the context of type 2 diabetes and neuropathy: the case for repeat application as a novel therapy for lower extremity ulceration.

    PubMed

    Epps, J A; Smart, N A

    2016-01-01

    An emerging treatment modality for reducing damage caused by ischaemia-reperfusion injury is ischaemic conditioning. This technique induces short periods of ischaemia that have been found to protect against a more significant ischaemic insult. Remote ischaemic conditioning (RIC) can be administered more conveniently and safely, by inflation of a pneumatic blood pressure cuff to a suprasystolic pressure on a limb. Protection is then transferred to a remote organ via humoral and neural pathways. The diabetic state is particularly vulnerable to ischaemia-reperfusion injury, and ischaemia is a significant cause of many diabetic complications, including the diabetic foot. Despite this, studies utilising ischaemic conditioning and RIC in type 2 diabetes have often been disappointing. A newer strategy, repeat RIC, involves the repeated application of short periods of limb ischaemia over days or weeks. It has been demonstrated that this improves endothelial function, skin microcirculation, and modulates the systemic inflammatory response. Repeat RIC was recently shown to be beneficial for healing in lower extremity diabetic ulcers. This article summarises the mechanisms of RIC, and the impact that type 2 diabetes may have upon these, with the role of neural mechanisms in the context of diabetic neuropathy a focus. Repeat RIC may show more promise than RIC in type 2 diabetes, and its potential mechanisms and applications will also be explored. Considering the high costs, rates of chronicity and serious complications resulting from diabetic lower extremity ulceration, repeat RIC has the potential to be an effective novel advanced therapy for this condition. PMID:27613524

  14. Estimation of predictive hydrologic uncertainty using the quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogulu, N.; López López, P.; Solomatine, D. P.; Weerts, A. H.; Shrestha, D. L.

    2015-07-01

    In operational hydrology, estimation of the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models used for flood modelling is essential for risk-based decision making for flood warning and emergency management. In the literature, there exists a variety of methods analysing and predicting uncertainty. However, studies devoted to comparing the performance of the methods in predicting uncertainty are limited. This paper focuses on the methods predicting model residual uncertainty that differ in methodological complexity: quantile regression (QR) and UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering (UNEEC). The comparison of the methods is aimed at investigating how well a simpler method using fewer input data performs over a more complex method with more predictors. We test these two methods on several catchments from the UK that vary in hydrological characteristics and the models used. Special attention is given to the methods' performance under different hydrological conditions. Furthermore, normality of model residuals in data clusters (identified by UNEEC) is analysed. It is found that basin lag time and forecast lead time have a large impact on the quantification of uncertainty and the presence of normality in model residuals' distribution. In general, it can be said that both methods give similar results. At the same time, it is also shown that the UNEEC method provides better performance than QR for small catchments with the changing hydrological dynamics, i.e. rapid response catchments. It is recommended that more case studies of catchments of distinct hydrologic behaviour, with diverse climatic conditions, and having various hydrological features, be considered.

  15. Precipitation of Oriented Rutile and Ilmenite Needles in Garnet, Northeastern Connecticut, USA: Evidence for Extreme Metamorphic Conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ague, J. J.; Eckert, J. O.

    2011-12-01

    We report the discovery of oriented needles of rutile and, less commonly, ilmenite in the cores of garnets from northeastern CT, USA. The rocks preserve granulite facies mineral assemblages, form part of the Merrimack Synclinorium, and underwent metamorphism and deformation during the Acadian orogeny. The needles appear identical to those reported from a number of extreme P-T environments worldwide, including UHP metamorphic rocks, high-P granulites, and garnet peridotites. The needles are predominantly oriented along <111> directions in garnet. The long axes of the rutile needles commonly do not go extinct parallel to the cross hairs under cross-polarized light (e.g., Griffin et al., 1971). This anomalous extinction indicates that the needles do not preserve a specific crystallographic relationship with their garnet hosts (e.g., Hwang et al., 2007). The needles range from a few hundred nm to a few um in diameter, and can be mm-scale in length. Micrometer-scale plates of rutile, srilankite and crichtonite have also been observed in some garnets together with the Fe-Ti oxide needles. Several origins for the needles have been proposed in the literature; we investigate the hypothesis that they precipitated in situ from originally Ti-rich garnet. Chemical profiles across garnets indicate that some retain Ti zoning, with elevated-Ti concentrations in the cores dropping to low values in the rims. For these zoned garnets, high-resolution, 2-D chemical mapping using the JEOL JXA-8530F field emission gun electron microprobe at Yale University reveals that the needles are surrounded by well-defined Ti-depletion halos. Chemical profiles also document strong depletions of Cr (which is present in both rutile and ilmenite) directly adjacent to needles. The observed Ti-depletions demonstrate that the needles precipitated from Ti-bearing garnet, probably during cooling and/or decompression associated with exhumation. The rutile precipitates must be largely incoherent with respect

  16. Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

    2013-12-01

    ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the

  17. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

  18. Adaptive Coping under Conditions of Extreme Stress: Multilevel Influences on the Determinants of Resilience in Maltreated Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cicchetti, Dante; Rogosch, Fred A.

    2009-01-01

    The study of resilience in maltreated children reveals the possibility of coping processes and resources on multiple levels of analysis as children strive to adapt under conditions of severe stress. In a maltreating context, aspects of self-organization, including self-esteem, self-reliance, emotion regulation, and adaptable yet reserved…

  19. Extreme late chronotypes and social jetlag challenged by Antarctic conditions in a population of university students from Uruguay

    PubMed Central

    Tassino, Bettina; Horta, Stefany; Santana, Noelia; Levandovski, Rosa; Silva, Ana

    2016-01-01

    In humans, a person’s chronotype depends on environmental cues and on individual characteristics, with late chronotypes prevailing in youth. Social jetlag (SJL), the misalignment between an individual׳s biological clock and social time, is higher in late chronotypes. Strong SJL is expected in Uruguayan university students with morning class schedules and very late entertainment activities. Sleep disorders have been reported in Antarctic inhabitants, that might be a response to the extreme environment or to the strictness of Antarctic life. We evaluated, for the first time in Uruguay, the chronotypes and SJL of 17 undergraduate students of the First Uruguayan Summer School on Antarctic Research, using Munich Chronotype Questionnaire (MCTQ) and sleep logs (SL) recorded during 3 phases: pre-Antarctic, Antarctic, and post-Antarctic. The midsleep point of free days corrected for sleep debt on work days (MSFsc,) was used as proxy of individuals’ chronotype, whose values (around 6 a.m.) are the latest ever reported. We found a SJL of around 2 h in average, which correlated positively with MSFsc, confirming that late chronotypes generate a higher sleep debt during weekdays. Midsleep point and sleep duration significantly decreased between pre-Antarctic and Antarctic phases, and sleep duration rebounded to significant higher values in the post-Antarctic phase. Waking time, but not sleep onset time, significantly varied among phases. This evidence suggests that sleep schedules more likely depended on the social agenda than on the environmental light–dark shifts. High motivation of students towards Antarctic activities likely induced a subjective perception of welfare non-dependent on sleep duration. PMID:27226819

  20. Extreme late chronotypes and social jetlag challenged by Antarctic conditions in a population of university students from Uruguay.

    PubMed

    Tassino, Bettina; Horta, Stefany; Santana, Noelia; Levandovski, Rosa; Silva, Ana

    2016-01-01

    In humans, a person's chronotype depends on environmental cues and on individual characteristics, with late chronotypes prevailing in youth. Social jetlag (SJL), the misalignment between an individual׳s biological clock and social time, is higher in late chronotypes. Strong SJL is expected in Uruguayan university students with morning class schedules and very late entertainment activities. Sleep disorders have been reported in Antarctic inhabitants, that might be a response to the extreme environment or to the strictness of Antarctic life. We evaluated, for the first time in Uruguay, the chronotypes and SJL of 17 undergraduate students of the First Uruguayan Summer School on Antarctic Research, using Munich Chronotype Questionnaire (MCTQ) and sleep logs (SL) recorded during 3 phases: pre-Antarctic, Antarctic, and post-Antarctic. The midsleep point of free days corrected for sleep debt on work days (MSFsc,) was used as proxy of individuals' chronotype, whose values (around 6 a.m.) are the latest ever reported. We found a SJL of around 2 h in average, which correlated positively with MSFsc, confirming that late chronotypes generate a higher sleep debt during weekdays. Midsleep point and sleep duration significantly decreased between pre-Antarctic and Antarctic phases, and sleep duration rebounded to significant higher values in the post-Antarctic phase. Waking time, but not sleep onset time, significantly varied among phases. This evidence suggests that sleep schedules more likely depended on the social agenda than on the environmental light-dark shifts. High motivation of students towards Antarctic activities likely induced a subjective perception of welfare non-dependent on sleep duration. PMID:27226819

  1. Extreme value analysis for evaluating ozone control strategies

    PubMed Central

    Reich, Brian; Cooley, Daniel; Foley, Kristen; Napelenok, Sergey; Shaby, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone is one of six criteria pollutants regulated by the US EPA, and has been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular endpoints and adverse effects on vegetation and ecosystems. Regional photochemical models have been developed to study the impacts of emission reductions on ozone levels. The standard approach is to run the deterministic model under new emission levels and attribute the change in ozone concentration to the emission control strategy. However, running the deterministic model requires substantial computing time, and this approach does not provide a measure of uncertainty for the change in ozone levels. Recently, a reduced form model (RFM) has been proposed to approximate the complex model as a simple function of a few relevant inputs. In this paper, we develop a new statistical approach to make full use of the RFM to study the effects of various control strategies on the probability and magnitude of extreme ozone events. We fuse the model output with monitoring data to calibrate the RFM by modeling the conditional distribution of monitoring data given the RFM using a combination of flexible semiparametric quantile regression for the center of the distribution where data are abundant and a parametric extreme value distribution for the tail where data are sparse. Selected parameters in the conditional distribution are allowed to vary by the RFM value and the spatial location. Also, due to the simplicity of the RFM, we are able to embed the RFM in our Bayesian hierarchical framework to obtain a full posterior for the model input parameters, and propagate this uncertainty to the estimation of the effects of the control strategies. We use the new framework to evaluate three potential control strategies, and find that reducing mobile-source emissions has a larger impact than reducing point-source emissions or a combination of several emission sources. PMID:24587842

  2. A comparison of spent fuel shipping cask response to 10 CFR 71 normal conditions and realistic hot day extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Manson, S.J.; Gianoulakis, S.E.

    1994-04-01

    An examination of the effect of a realistic (though conservative) hot day environment on the thermal transient behavior of spent fuel shipping casks is made. These results are compared to those that develop under the prescribed normal thermal condition of 10 CFR 71. Of specific concern are the characteristics of propagating thermal waves, which are set up by diurnal variations of temperature and insolation in the outdoor environment. In order to arrive at a realistic approximation of these variations on a conservative hot day, actual temperature and insolation measurements have been obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for representatively hot and high heat flux days. Thus, the use of authentic meteorological data ensures the realistic approach sought. Further supporting the desired realism of the modeling effort is the use of realistic cask configurations in which multiple laminations of structural, shielding, and other materials are expected to attenuate the propagating thermal waves. The completed analysis revealed that the majority of wall temperatures, for a wide variety of spent fuel shipping cask configurations, fall well below those predicted by enforcement of the regulatory environmental conditions of 10 CFR 71. It was found that maximum temperatures at the cask surface occasionally lie above temperatures predicted under the prescribed regulatory conditions. However, the temperature differences are small enough that the normal conservative assumptions that are made in the course of typical cask evaluations should correct for any potential violations. The analysis demonstrates that diurnal temperature variations that penetrate the cask wall all have maxima substantially less than the corresponding regulatory solutions. Therefore it is certain that vital cask components and the spent fuel itself will not exceed the temperatures calculated by use of the conditions of 10 CFR 71.

  3. Water supply patterns in two agricultural areas of Central Germany under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tölle, M. H.; Moseley, C.; Panferov, O.; Busch, G.; Knohl, A.

    2012-04-01

    Increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and increasing prices for fossil fuels have highlighted the demand for CO2 "neutral" renewable energy sources, e.g. short rotation forestry systems used for bioenergy. These systems might be vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation and occurrence of extreme weather events. To estimate success or failure of such short rotation coppices in a certain area we need regional climate projections and risk assessment. Changes of water supply patterns in two agriculturally extensively used regions in Central Germany (around Göttingen and Großfahner) with different climate conditions but both in the temperate climate zone are explored. The study is carried out under present conditions as well as under projected climate change conditions (1971-2100) using A1B and B1 climate scenarios downscaled for Europe. Analysis of precipitation bias shows regional differences: a strong bias in Göttingen area and a weaker bias in the Großfahner area. A bias correction approach, Quantile mapping, is applied to the ensemble results for both areas for winter and summer seasons. By using quantile regression on the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs) as indicator for water supply conditions we found that precipitation is expected to increase in winter in all quantiles of the distribution for Göttingen area during the 21th century. Heavy precipitation is also expected to increase for Großfahner area suggesting a trend to wetter extremes in winter for the future. This winter precipitation increase could trigger runoff and soil erosion risk enhancing the severity of floods. Increasing winter availability of water could enhance local water supply in spring. For both areas no significant change in summer was found over the whole time period. Although the climate change signal of the SPI indicate mild dryer conditions in summer at the end of the 21st century which may trigger water shortage and summer drying associated with above

  4. Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural

  5. A Quantile Regression Approach to Understanding the Relations Among Morphological Awareness, Vocabulary, and Reading Comprehension in Adult Basic Education Students.

    PubMed

    Tighe, Elizabeth L; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the joint and unique contributions of morphological awareness and vocabulary knowledge at five reading comprehension levels in adult basic education (ABE) students. We introduce the statistical technique of multiple quantile regression, which enabled us to assess the predictive utility of morphological awareness and vocabulary knowledge at multiple points (quantiles) along the continuous distribution of reading comprehension. To demonstrate the efficacy of our multiple quantile regression analysis, we compared and contrasted our results with a traditional multiple regression analytic approach. Our results indicated that morphological awareness and vocabulary knowledge accounted for a large portion of the variance (82%-95%) in reading comprehension skills across all quantiles. Morphological awareness exhibited the greatest unique predictive ability at lower levels of reading comprehension whereas vocabulary knowledge exhibited the greatest unique predictive ability at higher levels of reading comprehension. These results indicate the utility of using multiple quantile regression to assess trajectories of component skills across multiple levels of reading comprehension. The implications of our findings for ABE programs are discussed. PMID:25351773

  6. Oxidation state of the lower mantle: In situ observations of the iron electronic configuration in bridgmanite at extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kupenko, I.; McCammon, C.; Sinmyo, R.; Cerantola, V.; Potapkin, V.; Chumakov, A. I.; Kantor, A.; Rüffer, R.; Dubrovinsky, L.

    2015-08-01

    We have investigated the electronic configuration of iron in Fe-, Al-containing magnesium silicate perovskite, i.e., bridgmanite, the main component of the lower mantle, at conditions of the deep Earth's interior using the energy domain Synchrotron Mössbauer Source technique. We show that the high ferric iron content observed previously in quenched samples is preserved at high temperatures and high pressures. Our data are consistent with high-spin to intermediate-spin (HS-IS) crossover in Fe2+ at high pressures and ambient temperature. We see no evidence of spin crossover in Fe3+ occupying the A-position of bridgmanite. On laser heating at pressures above ∼40 GPa we observe a new doublet with relative area below 5% which is assigned to Fe3+ in the octahedral (B-site) position in bridgmanite. We conclude that at lower mantle conditions Fe3+ remains predominantly in the HS state, while Fe2+ occurs solely in the IS state.

  7. The effect of flunarizine on erythrocyte suspension viscosity under conditions of extreme hypoxia, low pH, and lactate treatment.

    PubMed Central

    Kavanagh, B. D.; Coffey, B. E.; Needham, D.; Hochmuth, R. M.; Dewhirst, M. W.

    1993-01-01

    Flunarizine is a class IV calcium channel blocker which increases oxygen delivery to hypoxic regions in solid tumours, exerting a radiosensitising effect in vivo in animal tumour models. Precisely how the drug improves oxygenation is not well understood. We hypothesised that metabolic conditions present within solid tumours reduce red blood cell (RBC) deformability and that flunarizine exerts its in vivo effect by preventing this loss of RBC deformability. A microrheometer was used to compare the viscosity of rat and human RBC suspensions in conditions of hypoxia (pO2 < 10 mmHg), acidic environment (pH 6.8), and elevated lactate concentration (lactate 5 mMol l-1), without or with flunarizine at concentrations of 5, 10, and 50 mg l-1. The effects of flunarizine on RBC density and morphology were also recorded. Hypoxia, low pH, and lactate exposure together increased both human and rat RBC suspension viscosity. Flunarizine at concentrations of 5 and 10 mg l-1 prevented the increases in viscosity. The drug caused dose-dependent shifts toward lower cell density while inducing a characteristic cupped shape (stomatcytic morphology), suggesting a mechanism involving calmodulin inhibition. The results support the hypothesis that flunarizine improves tumour blood flow and oxygenation by enhancing flow properties of RBC's in solid tumours. Images Figure 5 PMID:8471430

  8. Apparatus for measuring the emittance of materials from far infrared to visible wavelengths in extreme conditions of temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Sousa Meneses, D.; Melin, P.; del Campo, L.; Cosson, L.; Echegut, P.

    2015-03-01

    A computer controlled circular turntable equipped with a blackbody reference and an integrated axisymmetric heating system based on a CO2 laser is at the heart of the reported device. It allows performing emittance measurements in the spectral domain ranging from far infrared up to visible light and in a wide range of temperature. The apparatus includes two spectrometers and was built to achieve optimal experimental conditions of measurement, i.e. environmental stability and single optical path for the acquisition of the thermal fluxes. The specific design of the apparatus is firstly described; applied procedures for the characterization of the blackbody reference, laser heating and the retrieval of the emittance spectra are given after. Finally measurements obtained for ruby, NdGaO3 and platinum are presented to illustrate the capacities of the apparatus.

  9. Harvesting materials formed under extreme conditions: Synthesis and isolation of nanocarbons derived from detonation of high explosives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firestone, Millicent; Ringstrand, Bryan; Huber, Rachel; Dattelbaum, Dana; Gustavson, Richard; Podlesak, David

    High explosive detonation products are primarily composed of molecular gases and solid carbon products. Recent studies have shown that the solid carbon condensate morphologies can vary depending on the high explosive and / or the pressure, temperature, or environment of the detonation. These studies have revealed, for example, unique carbon nanoparticles possessing novel morphologies, such as ones composed of hollow cores surrounded by lamellar structured graphitic shells. Despite these observations little work has been done to isolate these particles from the recovered post-detonation soot. This lack of effort to isolate and purify these products limits our understanding of their materials properties and, ultimately our ability to adapt them for useful materials. Herein, we report our recent studies directed at the production of nano-carbons through the detonation of a high explosive (e.g., composition B) under a range of experimental conditions. We further describe work directed at isolation and purification of the carbon nanoparticles.

  10. Constraints on Earth's inner core composition inferred from measurements of the sound velocity of hcp-iron in extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Sakamaki, Tatsuya; Ohtani, Eiji; Fukui, Hiroshi; Kamada, Seiji; Takahashi, Suguru; Sakairi, Takanori; Takahata, Akihiro; Sakai, Takeshi; Tsutsui, Satoshi; Ishikawa, Daisuke; Shiraishi, Rei; Seto, Yusuke; Tsuchiya, Taku; Baron, Alfred Q R

    2016-02-01

    Hexagonal close-packed iron (hcp-Fe) is a main component of Earth's inner core. The difference in density between hcp-Fe and the inner core in the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) shows a density deficit, which implies an existence of light elements in the core. Sound velocities then provide an important constraint on the amount and kind of light elements in the core. Although seismological observations provide density-sound velocity data of Earth's core, there are few measurements in controlled laboratory conditions for comparison. We report the compressional sound velocity (V P) of hcp-Fe up to 163 GPa and 3000 K using inelastic x-ray scattering from a laser-heated sample in a diamond anvil cell. We propose a new high-temperature Birch's law for hcp-Fe, which gives us the V P of pure hcp-Fe up to core conditions. We find that Earth's inner core has a 4 to 5% smaller density and a 4 to 10% smaller V P than hcp-Fe. Our results demonstrate that components other than Fe in Earth's core are required to explain Earth's core density and velocity deficits compared to hcp-Fe. Assuming that the temperature effects on iron alloys are the same as those on hcp-Fe, we narrow down light elements in the inner core in terms of the velocity deficit. Hydrogen is a good candidate; thus, Earth's core may be a hidden hydrogen reservoir. Silicon and sulfur are also possible candidates and could show good agreement with PREM if we consider the presence of some melt in the inner core, anelasticity, and/or a premelting effect. PMID:26933678

  11. Application of empirical mode decomposition with local linear quantile regression in financial time series forecasting.

    PubMed

    Jaber, Abobaker M; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Altaher, Alsaidi M

    2014-01-01

    This paper mainly forecasts the daily closing price of stock markets. We propose a two-stage technique that combines the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with nonparametric methods of local linear quantile (LLQ). We use the proposed technique, EMD-LLQ, to forecast two stock index time series. Detailed experiments are implemented for the proposed method, in which EMD-LPQ, EMD, and Holt-Winter methods are compared. The proposed EMD-LPQ model is determined to be superior to the EMD and Holt-Winter methods in predicting the stock closing prices. PMID:25140343

  12. Assessing crop-specific impacts of extremely wet (2007) and dry (2003) conditions in France on regional maize and wheat yields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Velde, Marijn

    2010-05-01

    Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Both maize and wheat yield where historically low in 2003, in contrast to 2007 when wheat yields were lower and maize yields were higher than long-term averages. Even though maize yield loss was lower in regions with higher maize irrigation percentages; yield loss was still very considerable. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture related significantly to reported regional crop yield for 2002-2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture correlated positively from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. An analysis with a spatial version (10 by 10 km) of the EPIC crop growth model was used to infer causal relations between rainfall, soil moisture and rainfed wheat and rainfed and irrigated maize yield. The negative impacts of the 2003 heat wave and drought on wheat yield were captured by the model, while negative damages to yield due to excessive wetness in 2007 were not. Modelling suggests that regional drought mitigation increased with increasing maize irrigation percentages from 0 to 40%. At higher irrigation percentages the compensating effect of irrigation was small. The above average maize yields in 2007 were reproduced by the model, but the below average wheat yields were not. The model overestimation of wheat yield in 2007 may be due to a misrepresentation of the impact of wet conditions on plant physiological processes, or due to the incapacity of the model to represent determining factors such as lodging and unfavourable harvesting conditions. Strenghts and limitations of this regional assessment will be discussed. Extreme events affect

  13. Extreme drought conditions over NE Iberia in early 19th century (1812-1825) and its possible relationship to major volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barriendos, Mariano; Prohom, Marc; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo

    2010-05-01

    Potential changes in the frequency, persistence and intensity of climate extremes (e.g. heat waves, heavy precipitation and drought) are reported as key determinants of future impacts and vulnerability. The more information about behavior and temporal variability of such extremes in the past, the more accurate will be the projections in the future. In this work, an analysis of a mega-drought detected over NE Iberia in early nineteenth century is made using two climatic information sources: instrumental and proxy data. First, a unique rainfall series of Barcelona covering the period 1786-2009 has been used. Here, data characteristics and metadata of the series is shown, especially for the early period (1786-1843), that have been recently detected and digitized. Second, in order to support and validate the instrumental series, proxy data from historical documentary sources obtained in four locations in Catalonia are also investigated. Severe climatic drought conditions have been detected during the 1812-1825 period, being especially significant in winter and autumn seasons. Around the sub-periods 1812-13, 1815-17 and 1822-24 three different pulses where the conditions were extremely dramatic are detected. A similar mega-drought (intensity and duration) has not been detected in the whole 1786-2009 period. An analysis of the atmospheric dynamic processes responsible for these conditions is made based on the forcing effects of three coincident large volcanic events: unknown (1809), Tambora (1815) and Galunggung (1822). It is well-known that great low latitude explosive eruptions have a potential impact on climate via radiative effects (surface temperature cooling) but also by means of dynamical forcing, i.e., Arctic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode (AO/NAM) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reinforcement (e.g. Robock, 2000; Shindell et al., 2004; Fisher et al., 2007). A potential cause-effect relationship is pointed out between both phenomena: major volcanism and

  14. A Bayesian Approach to Multifractal Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2013-04-01

    Drivers such as climate change and rapid urbanisation will result in increasing flood problems in urban environments through this century. Problems encountered in existing flood defence strategies are often related to the data non-stationary, long range dependencies and the clustering of extremes often resulting in fat tailed (i.e., a power-law tail) probability distributions. We discuss how to better predict the floods by using a physically based approach established on systems that respect a scale symmetry over a wide range of space-time scales to determine the relationship between flood magnitude and return period for a wide range of aggregation periods. The classical quantile distributions unfortunately rely on two hypotheses that are questionable: stationarity and independency of the components of the time series. We pointed out that beyond the classical sampling of the extremes and its limitations, there is the possibility to eliminate long-range dependency by uncovering a white-noise process whose fractional integration generates the observed long-range dependent process. The results were obtained during the CEATI Project "Multifractals and physically based estimates of extreme floods". The ambition of this project was to investigate very large data sets of reasonable quality (e.g., daily stream flow data recorded for at least 20 years for several thousands of gages distributed all over Canada and the USA). The multifractal parameters such as the mean intermittency parameter and the multifractality index were estimated on 8332 time series. The results confirm the dependence of multifractal parameter estimates on the length of available data. Then developing a metric for parameter estimation error became a principal step in uncertainty evaluation with respect to the multifractal estimates. A technique for estimating confidence intervals with the help of a Bayesian approach was developed. A detailed comparison of multifractal quantile plots and paleoflood data

  15. Magneto-hydrodynamic simulation of hypervelocity neutral plasma jets and their interactions with materials generating extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramaniam, Vivek; Raja, Laxminarayan; Sitaraman, Hariswaran

    2014-10-01

    The development of a Magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD) numerical tool to study high density thermal plasma in a co-axial plasma gun is presented. The MHD governing equations are numerically solved using a matrix free implicit scheme in an unstructured grid finite volume framework. The MHD model is used to characterize the high energy jet which emanates from the accelerator. The solver is then used to predict the conditions created at the surface of a flat plate placed at a fixed distance from the exit of the gun. The model parameters are adjusted so that the energy density of the jet impacting the plate is of the same order of magnitude as that of the Edge Localized Mode (ELM) disruptions in thermonuclear fusion reactors. The idea is to use the pressure and temperature on the plate surface to obtain an estimate of the stress created on the plate due to jet impact. The model is used to quantify damage caused by ELM disruptions on the confining material surface.

  16. A theoretical study of the stability of anionic defects in cubic ZrO2 at extreme conditions

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Samanta, Amit

    2016-02-19

    Using first principles density functional theory calculations, we present a study of the structure, mobility, and the thermodynamic stability of anionic defects in the high-temperature cubic phase of ZrO2. Our results suggest that the local structure of an oxygen interstitial depends on the charge state and the cubic symmetry of the anionic sublattice is unstable at 0 K. In addition, the oxygen interstitials and the vacancies exhibit symmetry breaking transitions to low-energy structures with tetragonal distortion of the oxygen sublattice at 0 K. However, the vibrational entropy stabilizes the defect structures with cubic symmetry at 2600–2980 K. The formation freemore » energies of the anionic defects and Gibbs free energy changes associated with different defect reactions are calculated by including the vibrational free energy contributions and the effect of pressure on these defect structures. By analyzing the defect chemistry, we obtain the defect concentrations at finite temperature and pressure conditions using the zero temperature ab initio results as input and find that at low oxygen partial pressures, neutral oxygen vacancies are most dominant and at high oxygen partial pressures, doubly charged anionic defects are dominant. As a result, the relevance of the results to the thermal protective coating capabilities of zirconium-based ceramic composites is elucidated.« less

  17. X-ray diffraction experiments on the Materials in Extreme Conditions (MEC) LCLS x-ray FEL beamline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Raymond; Fratanduono, Dayne; Wicks, June; Duffy, Tom; Lee, Hae Ja; Granados, Eduardo; Heimann, Philip; Gleason, Arianna; Bolme, Cynthia; Swift, Damian; Coppari, Federica; Eggert, Jon; Collins, Rip

    2015-06-01

    The experiments described here were conducted on the MEC beamline hutch at the SLAC Linac Coherent Light Source. A 10 ns 527 nm laser pulse was used to shock compress 60-100 μm thick NaCl and Graphite samples. LCLS x-rays (40 fs, 8 keV), scattered off the shocked sample, were recorded on several pixel array detectors positioned downstream. The diffracted x-ray pattern allows us to determine changes in crystal structure at Mbar pressures and over nanosecond timescales. In this talk we detail the experimental setup, the current capabilities of the MEC laser and the considerations for optimizing the target design. We will describe the wave interactions within the shock-compressed target and the use of a 1D hydrocode to describe the pressure, temperature and density conditions within the target assembly as a function of time and Lagrangian position. We present observations of the B1-B2 phase transition in NaCl and subsequent back transformation during release to ambient pressure, and compare these findings to gas gun and static data. We also present results from a preliminary study of the shock-induced graphite to diamond transformation.

  18. Iron-silica interaction at extreme conditions and the electrically conducting layer at the base of Earth's mantle.

    PubMed

    Dubrovinsky, L; Dubrovinskaia, N; Langenhorst, F; Dobson, D; Rubie, D; Gessmann, C; Abrikosov, I A; Johansson, B; Baykov, V I; Vitos, L; Le Bihan, T; Crichton, W A; Dmitriev, V; Weber, H-P

    2003-03-01

    The boundary between the Earth's metallic core and its silicate mantle is characterized by strong lateral heterogeneity and sharp changes in density, seismic wave velocities, electrical conductivity and chemical composition. To investigate the composition and properties of the lowermost mantle, an understanding of the chemical reactions that take place between liquid iron and the complex Mg-Fe-Si-Al-oxides of the Earth's lower mantle is first required. Here we present a study of the interaction between iron and silica (SiO2) in electrically and laser-heated diamond anvil cells. In a multianvil apparatus at pressures up to 140 GPa and temperatures over 3,800 K we simulate conditions down to the core-mantle boundary. At high temperature and pressures below 40 GPa, iron and silica react to form iron oxide and an iron-silicon alloy, with up to 5 wt% silicon. At pressures of 85-140 GPa, however, iron and SiO2 do not react and iron-silicon alloys dissociate into almost pure iron and a CsCl-structured (B2) FeSi compound. Our experiments suggest that a metallic silicon-rich B2 phase, produced at the core-mantle boundary (owing to reactions between iron and silicate), could accumulate at the boundary between the mantle and core and explain the anomalously high electrical conductivity of this region. PMID:12621431

  19. Fatty acid patterns in Chlamydomonas sp. as a marker for nutritional regimes and temperature under extremely acidic conditions.

    PubMed

    Poerschmann, J; Spijkerman, E; Langer, U

    2004-07-01

    Fatty acid profiles were used to characterize nutritional pathways in Chlamydomonas sp. isolated from an acidic mining lake (pH 2.7). Surprisingly, profiles of Chlamydomonas sp. grown in the lab under photoautotrophic, mixotrophic, and heterotrophic conditions at in situ deep strata lake water temperatures (8 degrees C) were very similar, polyunsaturated fatty acids including alpha-linolenic acid (18:3omega3) and 16:4omega3 along with palmitic acid (16:0) being most abundant. Therefore, heterotrophic growth of Chlamydomonas sp. at low temperatures can result in high concentrations of polyunsaturated fatty acids, as previously only described for some psychrophilic bacteria. By contrast, the cultivation of isolated Chlamydomonas sp. at 20 degrees C, reflecting surface water temperatures, provided fatty acid patterns characteristic of the nutrition strategy applied: the concentration of polyunsaturated fatty acids decreased when the growth pathway changed from photoautotrophic via mixotrophic to heterotrophic. Total fatty acid concentration also diminished in this order. Principal component analysis confirmed the significance of FA profiling to mirror nutritional pathways. Lake-water analysis revealed low concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, mainly consisting of polymeric fulvic acids that are unable to support heterotrophic growth of Chlamydomonas sp. Polymeric fulvic acids present in the deeper strata of the lake turned out to be formed in situ on the basis of organic monomers including reduced sulfur-containing ones, as revealed by thermochemolysis and pyrolysis. Growth of Chlamydomonas sp. in the deep chlorophyll maximum is therefore assumed to mainly result from photosynthesis, despite very low photon densities. Phytol-including metabolites proved to be significant biomarkers to indicate the nutritional pathway of Chlamydomonas sp. alpha, omega-Dicarboxylic acids-light-induced degradation products of unsaturated fatty acids-appeared to be good indicators

  20. Thermostatic and rheological responses of DPD fluid to extreme shear under modified Lees-Edwards boundary condition.

    PubMed

    Moshfegh, Abouzar; Ahmadi, Goodarz; Jabbarzadeh, Ahmad

    2015-12-01

    Thermodynamic, hydrodynamic and rheological interactions between velocity-dependent thermostats of Lowe-Andersen (LA) and Nosé-Hoover-Lowe-Andersen (NHLA), and modified Lees-Edwards (M-LEC) boundary condition were studied in the context of Dissipative Particle Dynamics method. Comparisons were made with original Lees-Edwards method to characterise the improvements that M-LEC offers in conserving the induced shear momentum. Different imposed shear velocities, heat bath collision/exchange frequencies and thermostating probabilities were considered. The presented analyses addressed an unusual discontinuity in momentum transfer that appeared in form of nonphysical jumps in velocity and temperature profiles. The usefulness of M-LEC was then quantified by evaluating the enhancements in obtained effective shear velocity, effective shear rate, Péclet number, and dynamic viscosity. System exchange frequency (Γ) with Maxwellian heat bath was found to play an important role, in that its larger values facilitated achieving higher shear rates with proper temperature control at the cost of deviation from an ideal momentum transfer. Similar dynamic viscosities were obtained under both shearing modes between LA and NHLA thermostats up to Γ = 10, whilst about twice the range of viscosity (1 < η < 20) was calculated for M-LEC at larger probabilities (ΓΔt > %). The main benefits of this modification were to facilitate momentum flow from shear boundaries to the system bulk. In addition, it was found that there exist upper thresholds for imposing shear on the system beyond which temperature cannot be controlled properly and nonphysical jumps reappear. PMID:26701709

  1. Temperature and moisture conditions for life in the extreme arid region of the Atacama desert: four years of observations including the El Nino of 1997-1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKay, Christopher P.; Friedmann, E. Imre; Gomez-Silva, Benito; Caceres-Villanueva, Luis; Andersen, Dale T.; Landheim, Ragnhild

    2003-01-01

    The Atacama along the Pacific Coast of Chile and Peru is one of the driest and possibly oldest deserts in the world. It represents an extreme habitat for life on Earth and is an analog for life in dry conditions on Mars. We report on four years (September 1994-October 1998) of climate and moisture data from the extreme arid region of the Atacama. Our data are focused on understanding moisture sources and their role in creating suitable environments for photosynthetic microorganisms in the desert surface. The average air temperature was 16.5 degrees C and 16.6 degrees C in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The maximum air temperature recorded was 37.9 degrees C, and the minimum was -5.7 degrees C. Annual average sunlight was 336 and 335 W m(-2) in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Winds averaged a few meters per second, with strong fohn winds coming from the west exceeding 12 m s(-1). During our 4 years of observation there was only one significant rain event of 2.3 mm, which occurred near midnight local time. We suggest that this event was a rainout of a heavy fog. It is of interest that the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 brought heavy rainfall to the deserts of Peru, but did not bring significant rain to the central Atacama in Chile. Dew occurred at our station frequently following high nighttime relative humidity, but is not a significant source of moisture in the soil or under stones. Groundwater also does not contribute to surface moisture. Only the one rain event of 2.3 mm resulted in liquid water in the soil and beneath stones for a total of only 65-85 h over 4 years. The paucity of liquid water under stones is consistent with the apparent absence of hypolithic (under-stone) cyanobacteria, the only known primary producers in such extreme deserts.

  2. Effects of extreme thermal conditions on plasticity in breeding phenology and double-broodedness of Great Tits and Blue Tits in central Poland in 2013 and 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glądalski, Michał; Bańbura, Mirosława; Kaliński, Adam; Markowski, Marcin; Skwarska, Joanna; Wawrzyniak, Jarosław; Zieliński, Piotr; Bańbura, Jerzy

    2016-03-01

    Many avian species in Europe breed earlier as a result of higher temperatures caused by global climate changes. Climate change means not only higher temperatures but also more frequent extreme weather events, sometimes contrasting with the long-term trends. It was suggested that we should look closely at every extreme phenomenon and its consequences for the phenology of organisms. Examining the limits of phenotypic plasticity may be an important goal for future research. Extremely low spring temperatures in 2013 (coldest spring in 40 years) resulted in birds laying unusually late, and it was followed in 2014 by the earliest breeding season on record (warmest spring in 40 years). Here, we present results concerning breeding phenology and double-broodedness in the Great Tit (Parus major) and the Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) in 2013 and 2014 in an urban parkland and a deciduous forest in central Poland. Great Tits started laying eggs 18.2 days later in 2013 than in 2014 in the parkland, whereas the analogous difference was 21.1 days in the forest. Blue Tits started laying eggs in the parkland 18.5 days later in 2013 than in 2014, while the analogous difference was 21.6 days in the forest. The difference in the proportion of second clutches in Great Tits between 2013 (fewer second clutches) and 2014 (more second clutches) was highly significant in the parkland and in the forest. This rather large extent of breeding plasticity has developed in reaction to challenges of irregular inter-annual variability of climatic conditions. Such a buffer of plasticity may be sufficient for Blue Tits and Great Tits to adjust the timing of breeding to the upcoming climate changes.

  3. Reduced mass absorption cross section of black carbon under an extremely polluted condition in southern suburb of Beijing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.; Wang, S.; Hua, Y.; Jiang, J.; Zhao, B.; Xing, J.; Jiang, S.; Cai, R.; Hao, J.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon (BC), as one of the most important climate-warming agent, has been the focus of extensive studies in recent years. Mass absorption cross section (MAC) is a key parameter to assess the radiative forcing by linking the mass concentration with the radiation effect. In this study, we conducted a two-month field campaign in Beijing, the capital city of China, in a October and November, a period that severe PM2.5 pollution occurred. PM2.5 offline samples were collected daily onto quartz fiber filters by a Partisol 2300 Speciation Sampler. Size-segregated aerosol samples of the size ranged from 0.056 - 10 µm with 11 bins were collected onto quartz fiber filters by a cascade impactor developed by National Chiao Tung University (NCTU). A DRI Model 2001 thermal/optical carbon analyzer were used to analyze the samples. The MAC of BC is measured by a thermal-optical carbon analyzer. In contrast to previous studies, we found that after "shadow effect" has been corrected, the MAC is reduced from 14 m2/g to 5 m2/g with the increase of BC concentrations. There was no significant correlation between MAC with secondary inorganic aerosols. Such unexpected reduction in MAC of BC is possibly associated with the microphysical property of BC modulated under serious pollution condition. The study of size-segregated species concentrations shows that the size distribution of BC is unimodal, with the peak around 0.56-1.8 µm. The results also show the proportion of BC larger than 0.56 µm is significant increased. Additionally, "soot superaggregate", as distinct from conventional sub-micron aggregates, was found in the bins of BC with size ranged from 1 to1.8 µm. Such high carbon aerosol proportion and large BC size distribution suggests that emissions from residential biomass burning is dominant during this episode. This study suggests that the optical property for BC from different emission sectors should be considered in the estimation of radiative forcing.

  4. Synthesis of super-dense phase of aluminum under extreme pressure and temperature conditions created by femtosecond laser pulses in sapphire

    SciTech Connect

    Mizeikis, Vygantas; Vailionis, Arturas; Gamaly, Eugene G.; Yang, Wenge; Rode, Andrei V.; Juodkazis, Saulius

    2012-06-26

    We describe synthesis of a new super-dense phase of aluminum under extreme pressure and temperature conditions created by laser-induced microexplosions in sapphire. Micro explosions in sub-micrometer sized regions of sapphire were induced by tightly-focused femtosecond laser pulses with a temporal length of {approx} 100 fs and an energy of {approx} 100 nJ. Fast, explosive expansion of photogenerated high-density plasma created strong heating and pressure transients with peak temperature and pressure of {approx} 105 K and 10 TPa, respectively. Partial decomposition of sapphire in the shock-compressed sapphire led to formation of nanocrystalline bcc-Al phase, which is different from ambient fcc-Al phase, and was permanently preserved by fast quenching. The existence of super-dense bcc-Al phase was confirmed using X-ray diffraction technique. This is the first observation of bcc-Al phase, which so far has been only predicted theoretically, and a demonstration that laser-induced micro explosions technique enables simple, safe and cost-efficient access to extreme pressures and temperatures without the tediousness typical to traditional techniques that use diamond anvil cells, gas guns, explosives, or megajoule-class lasers.

  5. Bayesian nonparametric inference on quantile residual life function: Application to breast cancer data.

    PubMed

    Park, Taeyoung; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon; Lee, Jae Won

    2012-08-15

    There is often an interest in estimating a residual life function as a summary measure of survival data. For ease in presentation of the potential therapeutic effect of a new drug, investigators may summarize survival data in terms of the remaining life years of patients. Under heavy right censoring, however, some reasonably high quantiles (e.g., median) of a residual lifetime distribution cannot be always estimated via a popular nonparametric approach on the basis of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. To overcome the difficulties in dealing with heavily censored survival data, this paper develops a Bayesian nonparametric approach that takes advantage of a fully model-based but highly flexible probabilistic framework. We use a Dirichlet process mixture of Weibull distributions to avoid strong parametric assumptions on the unknown failure time distribution, making it possible to estimate any quantile residual life function under heavy censoring. Posterior computation through Markov chain Monte Carlo is straightforward and efficient because of conjugacy properties and partial collapse. We illustrate the proposed methods by using both simulated data and heavily censored survival data from a recent breast cancer clinical trial conducted by the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project. PMID:22437758

  6. Quantile-based clustering of Sea Surface Temperature in the equatorial Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso, Andrés; Barbosa, Susana; Gouveia, Sónia; Scotto, Manuel

    2016-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST), the temperature of the water close to the sea's surface, is a key climate variable, influencing both processes in the ocean and in the atmosphere above. In particular the temporal variability and spatial structure of SST plays a fundamental role in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific. This work addresses the classification of SST time series from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) monitoring array in the equatorial Pacific using a new quantile-based classification approach. The method considers a pair-wise dissimilarity measure based on Quantile AutoCovariance Functions (Q-ACF). Q-ACF provides a powerful tool to examine, for instance, serial dependence in non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear time series exhibiting features such as time-irreversibility or tail dependence. The classification results are consistent and spatially-coherent, with a clear separation between the SST observations from buoys in the western, central and eastern Pacific.

  7. Quantile regression model for a diverse set of chemicals: application to acute toxicity for green algae.

    PubMed

    Villain, Jonathan; Lozano, Sylvain; Halm-Lemeille, Marie-Pierre; Durrieu, Gilles; Bureau, Ronan

    2014-12-01

    The potential of quantile regression (QR) and quantile support vector machine regression (QSVMR) was analyzed for the definitions of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models associated with a diverse set of chemicals toward a particular endpoint. This study focused on a specific sensitive endpoint (acute toxicity to algae) for which even a narcosis QSAR model is not actually clear. An initial dataset including more than 401 ecotoxicological data for one species of algae (Selenastrum capricornutum) was defined. This set corresponds to a large sample of chemicals ranging from classical organic chemicals to pesticides. From this original data set, the selection of the different subsets was made in terms of the notion of toxic ratio (TR), a parameter based on the ratio between predicted and experimental values. The robustness of QR and QSVMR to outliers was clearly observed, thus demonstrating that this approach represents a major interest for QSAR associated with a diverse set of chemicals. We focused particularly on descriptors related to molecular surface properties. PMID:25431186

  8. Seasonal and diurnal variation of geomagnetic activity: Russell-McPherron effect during different IMF polarity and/or extreme solar wind conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, H.; Zong, Q.-G.

    2012-11-01

    The Russell-McPherron (R-M) effect is one of the most prevailing hypotheses accounting for semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity. To validate the R-M effect and investigate the difference of geomagnetic activity variation under different interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity and during extreme solar wind conditions (interplanetary shock), we have analyzed 42 years interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic indices data and 1270 SSC (storm sudden commencement) events from the year 1968 to 2010 by defining the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity (IMF away/toward the Sun). The results obtained in this study have shown that the response of geomagnetic activity to the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity are rather profound: the geomagnetic activity is much more intense around fall equinox when the direction of IMF is away the Sun, while much more intense around spring equinox when the direction of IMF is toward the Sun. The seasonal and diurnal variation of geomagnetic activity after SSCs can be attributed to both R-M effect and the equinoctial hypothesis; the R-M effect explains most part of variance of southward IMF, while the equinoctial hypothesis explains similar variance of ring current injection and geomagnetic indices as the R-M effect. However, the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity explains the difference between SSCs with positive/negative IMF By accurately, while the equinoctial hypothesis cannot explain such difference at the spring and fall equinoxes. Thus, the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity is more reasonable to explain seasonal and diurnal variation of geomagnetic activity under extreme solar wind conditions.

  9. Understanding extreme winds in Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petersen, Gudrun Nina

    2015-04-01

    Iceland is a fairly windy country, due to it's location adjacent the North Atlantic storm track. The orography of the island is rugged, mountains are steep and fjords and valleys narrow, and this impacts local winds. Thus, mountain wind phenomena such as low level jets, gap winds, down-slope wind storms, mountain waves and wind wakes are common. To increase our knowledge of the behaviour of wind in Iceland an extreme value analysis was conducted based on observations from 61 automatic weather stations, applying the Peak Over Threshold technique on maximum daily wind speed and maximum daily wind gust at each site. The time series included at least 10 years of data and the threshold was chosen as the 0.9 quantile of maximum mean wind speed/maximum wind gust at each location. Among the results is the larger impact the local orography has on the extreme wind gusts compared to the mean wind. With extreme value models in place, a few significant weather events were selected from recent years and the observed wind speeds compared to the models in order to evaluate how extreme the events were and how large area they impacted. Actually, in most of these events the observed wind speed only turned out to be extreme at a few stations, emphasising the local effects. However, in an event from December 2007, when the observed maximum wind speed exceeded 23 m/s in most of western Iceland, the event was estimated as rare at a number of weather stations. Clearly this gives indication for further studying this particular weather event. An automatic system has been set up, running once an hour, comparing observed wind measurements to the extreme value models and producing maps of the return periods for all sites. This system gives us the possibility to, on a daily basis, evaluate the extremeness of each situation and simultaneously increase our knowledge of extreme wind behaviour in Iceland. This work is a foundation for studying changes in extreme winds in Iceland.

  10. The influence of extreme river discharge conditions on the quality of suspended particulate matter in Rivers Meuse and Rhine (The Netherlands).

    PubMed

    Hamers, Timo; Kamstra, Jorke H; van Gils, Jos; Kotte, Marcel C; van Hattum, Albertus G M

    2015-11-01

    As a consequence of climate change, increased precipitation in winter and longer periods of decreased precipitation in summer are expected to cause more frequent episodes of very high or very low river discharge in the Netherlands. To study the impact of such extreme river discharge conditions on water quality, toxicity profiles and pollutant profiles were determined of suspended particulate matter (SPM) collected from Rivers Meuse and Rhine. Archived (1993-2003) and fresh (2009-2011) SPM samples were selected from the Dutch annual monitoring program of the national water bodies (MWTL), representing episodes with river discharge conditions ranging from very low to regular to very high. SPM extracts were tested in a battery of in vitro bioassays for their potency to interact with the androgen receptor (AR), the estrogen receptor (ER), the arylhydrocarbon receptor (AhR), and the thyroid hormone transporter protein transthyretin (TTR). SPM extracts were further tested for their mutagenic potency (Ames assay) and their potency to inhibit bacterial respiration (Vibrio fischeri bioluminescence assay). Target-analyzed pollutant concentrations of the SPM samples and additional sample information were retrieved from a public database of MWTL results. In vitro toxicity profiles and pollutant profiles were analyzed in relation to discharge conditions and in relation to each other using correlation analysis and multivariate statistics. Compared to regular discharge conditions, composition of SPM during very high River Meuse and Rhine discharges shifted to more coarse, sandy, organic carbon (OC) poor particles. On the contrary, very low discharge led to a shift to more fine, OC rich material, probably dominated by algae. This shift was most evident in River Meuse, which is characterized by almost stagnant water conditions during episodes of drought. During such episodes, SPM extracts from River Meuse demonstrated increased potencies to inhibit bacterial respiration and to

  11. The Use of Quantile Regression to Forecast Higher Than Expected Respiratory Deaths in a Daily Time Series: A Study of New York City Data 1987-2000

    PubMed Central

    Soyiri, Ireneous N.; Reidpath, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Forecasting higher than expected numbers of health events provides potentially valuable insights in its own right, and may contribute to health services management and syndromic surveillance. This study investigates the use of quantile regression to predict higher than expected respiratory deaths. Data taken from 70,830 deaths occurring in New York were used. Temporal, weather and air quality measures were fitted using quantile regression at the 90th-percentile with half the data (in-sample). Four QR models were fitted: an unconditional model predicting the 90th-percentile of deaths (Model 1), a seasonal / temporal (Model 2), a seasonal, temporal plus lags of weather and air quality (Model 3), and a seasonal, temporal model with 7-day moving averages of weather and air quality. Models were cross-validated with the out of sample data. Performance was measured as proportionate reduction in weighted sum of absolute deviations by a conditional, over unconditional models; i.e., the coefficient of determination (R1). The coefficient of determination showed an improvement over the unconditional model between 0.16 and 0.19. The greatest improvement in predictive and forecasting accuracy of daily mortality was associated with the inclusion of seasonal and temporal predictors (Model 2). No gains were made in the predictive models with the addition of weather and air quality predictors (Models 3 and 4). However, forecasting models that included weather and air quality predictors performed slightly better than the seasonal and temporal model alone (i.e., Model 3 > Model 4 > Model 2) This study provided a new approach to predict higher than expected numbers of respiratory related-deaths. The approach, while promising, has limitations and should be treated at this stage as a proof of concept. PMID:24147122

  12. The use of quantile regression to forecast higher than expected respiratory deaths in a daily time series: a study of New York City data 1987-2000.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Forecasting higher than expected numbers of health events provides potentially valuable insights in its own right, and may contribute to health services management and syndromic surveillance. This study investigates the use of quantile regression to predict higher than expected respiratory deaths. Data taken from 70,830 deaths occurring in New York were used. Temporal, weather and air quality measures were fitted using quantile regression at the 90th-percentile with half the data (in-sample). Four QR models were fitted: an unconditional model predicting the 90th-percentile of deaths (Model 1), a seasonal/temporal (Model 2), a seasonal, temporal plus lags of weather and air quality (Model 3), and a seasonal, temporal model with 7-day moving averages of weather and air quality. Models were cross-validated with the out of sample data. Performance was measured as proportionate reduction in weighted sum of absolute deviations by a conditional, over unconditional models; i.e., the coefficient of determination (R1). The coefficient of determination showed an improvement over the unconditional model between 0.16 and 0.19. The greatest improvement in predictive and forecasting accuracy of daily mortality was associated with the inclusion of seasonal and temporal predictors (Model 2). No gains were made in the predictive models with the addition of weather and air quality predictors (Models 3 and 4). However, forecasting models that included weather and air quality predictors performed slightly better than the seasonal and temporal model alone (i.e., Model 3 > Model 4 > Model 2) This study provided a new approach to predict higher than expected numbers of respiratory related-deaths. The approach, while promising, has limitations and should be treated at this stage as a proof of concept. PMID:24147122

  13. BROAD-LINE REGION PHYSICAL CONDITIONS IN EXTREME POPULATION A QUASARS: A METHOD TO ESTIMATE CENTRAL BLACK HOLE MASS AT HIGH REDSHIFT

    SciTech Connect

    Negrete, C. Alenka; Dultzin, Deborah; Marziani, Paola; Sulentic, Jack W. E-mail: deborah@astro.unam.mx E-mail: sulentic@iaa.es

    2012-09-20

    We describe a method for estimating physical conditions in the broad-line region (BLR) for a significant subsample of Seyfert 1 nuclei and quasars. Several diagnostic ratios based on intermediate (Al III {lambda}1860, Si III] {lambda}1892) and high (C IV {lambda}1549, Si IV {lambda}1397) ionization lines in the UV spectra of quasars are used to constrain density, ionization, and metallicity of the emitting gas. We apply the method to two extreme Population A quasars-the prototypical NLSy1 I Zw 1 and higher z source SDSS J120144.36+011611.6. Under assumptions of spherical symmetry and pure photoionization we infer BLR physical conditions: low ionization (ionization parameter <10{sup -2}), high density (10{sup 12}-10{sup 13} cm{sup -3}), and significant metal enrichment. Ionization parameter and density can be derived independently for each source with an uncertainty that is less than {+-}0.3 dex. We use the product of density and ionization parameter to estimate the BLR radius and derive an estimation of the virial black hole mass (M{sub BH}). Estimates of M{sub BH} based on the 'photoionization' analysis described in this paper are probably more accurate than those derived from the mass-luminosity correlations widely employed to compute black hole masses for high-redshift quasars.

  14. Re-examining the price sensitivity of demand for cigarettes with quantile regression.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chiang-Ming; Chang, Kuo-Liang; Lin, Lin

    2013-12-01

    Existing studies suggest that teenagers, young adults, and individuals of low socioeconomic status are more sensitive to changes in cigarette prices. However, little is known as to whether there are differences in price sensitivity between heavy and light smokers. To examine this gap, the present study uses quantile regression to estimate price sensitivity of demand for smokers with different levels of tobacco consumption. We conducted a national personal interview survey in Taiwan and the results showed price sensitivity is positively associated with the level of cigarette consumption. The data indicate that pricing strategies are more likely to notably reduce cigarette consumption for heavy smokers. Our findings suggest policymakers can meet target control for cigarette consumption by effectively adjusting market prices of cigarettes. PMID:24018220

  15. Testing and estimation in marker-set association study using semiparametric quantile regression kernel machine.

    PubMed

    Kong, Dehan; Maity, Arnab; Hsu, Fang-Chi; Tzeng, Jung-Ying

    2016-06-01

    We consider quantile regression for partially linear models where an outcome of interest is related to covariates and a marker set (e.g., gene or pathway). The covariate effects are modeled parametrically and the marker set effect of multiple loci is modeled using kernel machine. We propose an efficient algorithm to solve the corresponding optimization problem for estimating the effects of covariates and also introduce a powerful test for detecting the overall effect of the marker set. Our test is motivated by traditional score test, and borrows the idea of permutation test. Our estimation and testing procedures are evaluated numerically and applied to assess genetic association of change in fasting homocysteine level using the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention Trial data. PMID:26575303

  16. Bivariate generalized Pareto distribution for extreme atmospheric particulate matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amin, Nor Azrita Mohd; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

    2015-02-01

    The high particulate matter (PM10) level is the prominent issue causing various impacts to human health and seriously affecting the economics. The asymptotic theory of extreme value is apply for analyzing the relation of extreme PM10 data from two nearby air quality monitoring stations. The series of daily maxima PM10 for Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang stations are consider for year 2001 to 2010 databases. The 85% and 95% marginal quantile apply to determine the threshold values and hence construct the series of exceedances over the chosen threshold. The logistic, asymmetric logistic, negative logistic and asymmetric negative logistic models areconsidered as the dependence function to the joint distribution of a bivariate observation. Maximum likelihood estimation is employed for parameter estimations. The best fitted model is chosen based on the Akaike Information Criterion and the quantile plots. It is found that the asymmetric logistic model gives the best fitted model for bivariate extreme PM10 data and shows the weak dependence between two stations.

  17. Environmental influence on mussel (Mytilus edulis) growth - A quantile regression approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergström, Per; Lindegarth, Mats

    2016-03-01

    The need for methods for sustainable management and use of coastal ecosystems has increased in the last century. A key aspect for obtaining ecologically and economically sustainable aquaculture in threatened coastal areas is the requirement of geographic information of growth and potential production capacity. Growth varies over time and space and depends on a complex pattern of interactions between the bivalve and a diverse range of environmental factors (e.g. temperature, salinity, food availability). Understanding these processes and modelling the environmental control of bivalve growth has been central in aquaculture. In contrast to the most conventional modelling techniques, quantile regression can handle cases where not all factors are measured and provide the possibility to estimate the effect at different levels of the response distribution and give therefore a more complete picture of the relationship between environmental factors and biological response. Observation of the relationships between environmental factors and growth of the bivalve Mytilus edulis revealed relationships that varied both among level of growth rate and within the range of environmental variables along the Swedish west coast. The strongest patterns were found for water oxygen concentration level which had a negative effect on growth for all oxygen levels and growth levels. However, these patterns coincided with differences in growth among periods and very little of the remaining variability within periods could be explained indicating that interactive processes masked the importance of the individual variables. By using quantile regression and local regression (LOESS) this study was able to provide valuable information on environmental factors influencing the growth of M. edulis and important insight for the development of ecosystem based management tools of aquaculture activities, its use in mitigation efforts and successful management of human use of coastal areas.

  18. A probabilistic spatial dengue fever risk assessment by a threshold-based-quantile regression method.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Chuan-Hung; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chien, Lung-Chang; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the spatial characteristics of dengue fever (DF) incidences is crucial for governmental agencies to implement effective disease control strategies. We investigated the associations between environmental and socioeconomic factors and DF geographic distribution, are proposed a probabilistic risk assessment approach that uses threshold-based quantile regression to identify the significant risk factors for DF transmission and estimate the spatial distribution of DF risk regarding full probability distributions. To interpret risk, return period was also included to characterize the frequency pattern of DF geographic occurrences. The study area included old Kaohsiung City and Fongshan District, two areas in Taiwan that have been affected by severe DF infections in recent decades. Results indicated that water-related facilities, including canals and ditches, and various types of residential area, as well as the interactions between them, were significant factors that elevated DF risk. By contrast, the increase of per capita income and its associated interactions with residential areas mitigated the DF risk in the study area. Nonlinear associations between these factors and DF risk were present in various quantiles, implying that water-related factors characterized the underlying spatial patterns of DF, and high-density residential areas indicated the potential for high DF incidence (e.g., clustered infections). The spatial distributions of DF risks were assessed in terms of three distinct map presentations: expected incidence rates, incidence rates in various return periods, and return periods at distinct incidence rates. These probability-based spatial risk maps exhibited distinct DF risks associated with environmental factors, expressed as various DF magnitudes and occurrence probabilities across Kaohsiung, and can serve as a reference for local governmental agencies. PMID:25302582

  19. A Probabilistic Spatial Dengue Fever Risk Assessment by a Threshold-Based-Quantile Regression Method

    PubMed Central

    Chiu, Chuan-Hung; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chien, Lung-Chang; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the spatial characteristics of dengue fever (DF) incidences is crucial for governmental agencies to implement effective disease control strategies. We investigated the associations between environmental and socioeconomic factors and DF geographic distribution, are proposed a probabilistic risk assessment approach that uses threshold-based quantile regression to identify the significant risk factors for DF transmission and estimate the spatial distribution of DF risk regarding full probability distributions. To interpret risk, return period was also included to characterize the frequency pattern of DF geographic occurrences. The study area included old Kaohsiung City and Fongshan District, two areas in Taiwan that have been affected by severe DF infections in recent decades. Results indicated that water-related facilities, including canals and ditches, and various types of residential area, as well as the interactions between them, were significant factors that elevated DF risk. By contrast, the increase of per capita income and its associated interactions with residential areas mitigated the DF risk in the study area. Nonlinear associations between these factors and DF risk were present in various quantiles, implying that water-related factors characterized the underlying spatial patterns of DF, and high-density residential areas indicated the potential for high DF incidence (e.g., clustered infections). The spatial distributions of DF risks were assessed in terms of three distinct map presentations: expected incidence rates, incidence rates in various return periods, and return periods at distinct incidence rates. These probability-based spatial risk maps exhibited distinct DF risks associated with environmental factors, expressed as various DF magnitudes and occurrence probabilities across Kaohsiung, and can serve as a reference for local governmental agencies. PMID:25302582

  20. Bivariate extreme value distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshamy, M.

    1992-01-01

    In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

  1. Nonparametric conditional estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Owen, A.B.

    1987-01-01

    Many nonparametric regression techniques (such as kernels, nearest neighbors, and smoothing splines) estimate the conditional mean of Y given X = chi by a weighted sum of observed Y values, where observations with X values near chi tend to have larger weights. In this report the weights are taken to represent a finite signed measure on the space of Y values. This measure is studied as an estimate of the conditional distribution of Y given X = chi. From estimates of the conditional distribution, estimates of conditional means, standard deviations, quantiles and other statistical functionals may be computed. Chapter 1 illustrates the computation of conditional quantiles and conditional survival probabilities on the Stanford Heart Transplant data. Chapter 2 contains a survey of nonparametric regression methods and introduces statistical metrics and von Mises' method for later use. Chapter 3 proves some consistency results. Chapter 4 provides conditions under which the suitably normalized errors in estimating the conditional distribution of Y have a Brownian limit. Using von Mises' method, asymptotic normality is obtained for nonparametric conditional estimates of compactly differentiable statistical functionals.

  2. Urban development under extreme hydrologic and weather conditions for El Paso-Juarez: Recommendations resulting from hydrologic modeling, GIS, and remote sensing analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barud-Zubillaga, Alberto

    During the 2006 El Paso-Juarez flood there were many concerns regarding the capability of the existing stormwater system to handle 50- and 100-year flood events in El Paso, Texas and Juarez, Mexico area. Moreover in 2008, a considerable wet year from the normal 223 mm of annual precipitation for El Paso demonstrated that the area could very well received large amounts of precipitation at localized areas in short periods of time, representing a great flood threat to residents living in areas prone to flood. Some climate change projections for the area are exactly what had occurred over the last two decades; an increased number of torrential rainstorms over smaller concentrated pieces of land separated by longer years of drought between rainstorms. This study consisted in three projects focused on three critical regions within the El Paso-Juarez area that were greatly affected by the 2006 Flood. The goal was to identify if natural arroyos or the existent built stormwater system, could properly managed the projected precipitation patterns. The three projects described in this dissertation touch on the following points: (a) the importance of a reliable precipitation model that could accurately describes precipitation patterns in the region under extreme drought and wet climates conditions; (b) differences in land use/land cover characteristics as factors promoting or disrupting the possibility for flooding, and (c) limitations and capabilities of existent stormwater systems and natural arroyos as means to control flooding. Conclusions and recommendations are shown below, which apply not only to each particular project, but also to all study areas and similar areas in the El Paso-Juarez region. Urbanization can improve or worsen a pre-existing natural stormwater system if built under its required capacity. Such capacity should be calculated considering extreme weather conditions, based on a denser network of precipitation stations to capture the various microclimates

  3. Grouping of Experimental Conditions as an Approach to Evaluate Effects of Extremely Low-Frequency Magnetic Fields on Oxidative Response in in vitro Studies

    PubMed Central

    Mattsson, Mats-Olof; Simkó, Myrtill

    2014-01-01

    A large body of literature deals with biological effects of extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF MFs) studied in vitro. Despite the multitude of studies, no coherent picture has evolved regarding the plausibility of effects at low-flux densities or regarding the interaction mechanisms. Here, we propose that ELF MF exposure in vitro causes changes in oxidative status as an early response. We tested this hypothesis by scrutinizing the literature and applying a grouping approach for analyzing relevant biological properties and exposure conditions. A total of 41 scientific original publications were analyzed for this purpose. The conclusion from the work is that ELF MF (modulated or unmodulated) consistently can influence the oxidative status, at or above 1 mT, in a broad range of cell types and independent of exposure duration. A response at lower flux densities is seen in certain studies, although not consistently. Further studies with stringent protocols for sham exposure, blinding, and statistical analysis as well as appropriate positive controls are needed to establish if true dose-relationships for effects on oxidative status exist. PMID:25229055

  4. An experimental station for advanced research on condensed matter under extreme conditions at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility - BM29 beamline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filipponi, Adriano; Borowski, Michael; Bowron, Daniel T.; Ansell, Stuart; Di Cicco, Andrea; De Panfilis, Simone; Itiè, Jean-Paul

    2000-06-01

    We describe state-of-the-art experimental techniques using the beamline BM29 of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF). This station exploits the unique characteristics of an ESRF bending magnet source to provide a tunable, collimated, x-ray beam to perform high quality x-ray absorption spectroscopy within the energy range of E=5-75 keV using Si(111), Si(311), and Si(511) crystal pairs. Energy scans can be performed over this wide energy range with excellent reproducibility, stability and resolution, usually better than ΔE/E≃5×10-5. The experimental setup has been exploited to study condensed matter under extreme conditions. We describe here two sample environment devices; the L' Aquila-Camerino oven for high-temperature studies up to 3000 K in high vacuum and the Paris-Edinburgh press suitable for high-pressure high-temperature studies in the range 0.1-7 GPa and temperatures up to 1500 K. These devices can be integrated in an experimental setup which combines various control and detection systems suitable to perform x-ray absorption spectroscopy, x-ray absorption temperature scans, and energy scanning x-ray diffraction (ESXD). The ESXD setup is based on a scintillator detector behind a fixed angle collimator aligned to the sample. The combination of these three measurements, which can be performed in rapid sequence on the sample during the experiment, provides an essential tool for structural investigations and in situ sample characterization.

  5. Response of the extremely halophilic Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4 to UV radiation and space conditions in the EXPOSE -ADAPT project on the International Space Station

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fendrihan, Sergiu; Grosbacher, Michael; Stan-Lotter, Helga

    2010-05-01

    The international project ADAPT focuses on the response of different microorganisms to outer space conditions. In 2007, the European Space Agency (ESA) has installed the Columbus laboratory and the exposure facility EXPOSE-E on the International Space Station (ISS). One of the microorganisms that were exposed for 18 months on the ISS is Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4, an extremely halophilic archaeon which was isolated from about 250 million years old alpine salt deposits (1). Ground experiments with Hcc. dombrowskii included irradiation with different wavelengths and doses of UV, using a Hg low pressure lamp, a solar simulator SOL2 (both at the DLR, Cologne) and a Mars UV simulation lamp (2). Cells were embedded in halite crystals which were formed on quartz discs by evaporation of high salt buffers. Methods for analyzing the effects of exposure on Hcc. dombrowskii include the estimation of colony forming units (CFUs), staining for viability with the BacLight LIVE/DEAD kit (2), establishing long term liquid cultures and determination of the formation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs) with specific antibodies (3). Counting of viable (green) and dead (red) cells showed an apparent preservation of viability following exposure to about 21 kJ/m2 in ground experiments, but the calculated D37 (dose of 37 % survival) for Hcc. dombrowskii was about 400 kJ/m2 in salt crystals (2). CPDs were detected in about 6-8% of cells of Hcc. dombrowskii following exposure to a dose of 3000 kJ/m2 (200-400 nm). Preliminary results with the samples of Hcc. dombrowskii from the ISS suggested preservation of cellular morphology and stainability with the fluorescent dyes of the LIVE/DEAD kit, as well as formation of CPDs in about 2-3 % of the cells. The determination of the survival of cells by measuring proliferation requires months of incubation; data can be expected in May or June 2010. (1) Stan-Lotter H, Pfaffenhuemer M, Legat A, Busse H-J, Radax C, Gruber C (2002) Halococcus

  6. Hybrid approach in statistical bias correction of projected precipitation for the frequency analysis of extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Hanbeen; Heo, Jun-Haeng

    2016-08-01

    A general circulation model (GCM) can be applied to project future climate factors, such as precipitation and atmospheric temperature, to study hydrological and environmental climate change. Although many improvements in GCMs have been proposed recently, projected climate data are still required to be corrected for the biases in generating data before applying the model to practical applications. In this study, a new hybrid process was proposed, and its ability to perform bias correction for the prediction of annual precipitation and annual daily maxima, was tested. The hybrid process in this study was based on quantile mapping with the gamma and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and a spline technique to correct the bias of projected daily precipitation. The observed and projected daily precipitation values from the selected stations were analyzed using three bias correction methods, namely, linear scaling, quantile mapping, and hybrid methods. The performances of these methods were analyzed to find the optimal method for prediction of annual precipitation and annual daily maxima. The linear scaling method yielded the best results for estimating the annual average precipitation, while the hybrid method was optimal for predicting the variation in annual precipitation. The hybrid method described the statistical characteristics of the annual maximum series (AMS) similarly to the observed data. In addition, this method demonstrated the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination (R2) for predicting the quantiles of the AMS for the extreme value analysis of precipitation.

  7. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on climate extreme indices in a multi-model experiment under present and future conditions (GLACE-CMIP5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events can be directly influenced by land surface-atmosphere interactions. It is important to investigate how extreme events might change in the future and the role these interactions play in amplifying extremes. The data from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments (Seneviratne et al., 2013) provide a unique opportunity to examine the influence of soil moisture on extremes in transient climate simulations from a range of climate models. The extreme indices we use are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and contain a range of indices based on daily minimum and maximum temperature as well as daily precipitation. The ETCCDI indices are available from observational datasets, reanalysis and as well as CMIP5 runs. Hence, these indices are widely used and can be compared to other sources. In this paper, we analyze the effects of land surface feedbacks on the extremes and their trends in the different global climate models. Seneviratne, S. I., et al. (2013). Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. GRL, 40(19), 5212-5217. doi:10.1002/grl.50956

  8. Understanding Child Stunting in India: A Comprehensive Analysis of Socio-Economic, Nutritional and Environmental Determinants Using Additive Quantile Regression

    PubMed Central

    Fenske, Nora; Burns, Jacob; Hothorn, Torsten; Rehfuess, Eva A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Most attempts to address undernutrition, responsible for one third of global child deaths, have fallen behind expectations. This suggests that the assumptions underlying current modelling and intervention practices should be revisited. Objective We undertook a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of child stunting in India, and explored whether the established focus on linear effects of single risks is appropriate. Design Using cross-sectional data for children aged 0–24 months from the Indian National Family Health Survey for 2005/2006, we populated an evidence-based diagram of immediate, intermediate and underlying determinants of stunting. We modelled linear, non-linear, spatial and age-varying effects of these determinants using additive quantile regression for four quantiles of the Z-score of standardized height-for-age and logistic regression for stunting and severe stunting. Results At least one variable within each of eleven groups of determinants was significantly associated with height-for-age in the 35% Z-score quantile regression. The non-modifiable risk factors child age and sex, and the protective factors household wealth, maternal education and BMI showed the largest effects. Being a twin or multiple birth was associated with dramatically decreased height-for-age. Maternal age, maternal BMI, birth order and number of antenatal visits influenced child stunting in non-linear ways. Findings across the four quantile and two logistic regression models were largely comparable. Conclusions Our analysis confirms the multifactorial nature of child stunting. It emphasizes the need to pursue a systems-based approach and to consider non-linear effects, and suggests that differential effects across the height-for-age distribution do not play a major role. PMID:24223839

  9. Estimating return periods for daily precipitation extreme events over the Brazilian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eliane Barbosa; Lucio, Paulo Sérgio; Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

    2015-08-01

    This paper aims to model the occurrence of daily precipitation extreme events and to estimate the return period of these events through the extreme value theory (generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)). The GEV and GPD were applied in precipitation series of homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot and by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. The Q-Q plot suggests that the probability distributions of the studied series are appropriated, and these results were confirmed by the KS test, which demonstrates that the tested distributions have a good fit in all sub-regions of Amazon, thus adequate to study the daily precipitation extreme event. For all return levels studied, more intense precipitation extremes is expected to occur within the South sub-regions and the coastal area of the Brazilian Amazon. The results possibly will have some practical application in local extreme weather forecast.

  10. Estimating temporal changes in extreme rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaccorso, Brunella; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-hour annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that, despite L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves corresponding to the last decade (2000-2009) are usually less steep than the ones of the previous periods, rainfall quantile estimates have increased during the 2000s due to a large increase in regional average median, mainly in Western Sicily.

  11. Methods to adjust for misclassification in the quantiles for the generalized linear model with measurement error in continuous exposures.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ching-Yun; Dieu Tapsoba, Jean De; Duggan, Catherine; Campbell, Kristin L; McTiernan, Anne

    2016-05-10

    In many biomedical studies, covariates of interest may be measured with errors. However, frequently in a regression analysis, the quantiles of the exposure variable are often used as the covariates in the regression analysis. Because of measurement errors in the continuous exposure variable, there could be misclassification in the quantiles for the exposure variable. Misclassification in the quantiles could lead to bias estimation in the association between the exposure variable and the outcome variable. Adjustment for misclassification will be challenging when the gold standard variables are not available. In this paper, we develop two regression calibration estimators to reduce bias in effect estimation. The first estimator is normal likelihood-based. The second estimator is linearization-based, and it provides a simple and practical correction. Finite sample performance is examined via a simulation study. We apply the methods to a four-arm randomized clinical trial that tested exercise and weight loss interventions in women aged 50-75years. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26593772

  12. The evolution of extreme precipitations in high resolution scenarios over France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colin, J.; Déqué, M.; Somot, S.

    2009-09-01

    Over the past years, improving the modelling of extreme events and their variability at climatic time scales has become one of the challenging issue raised in the regional climate research field. This study shows the results of a high resolution (12 km) scenario run over France with the limited area model (LAM) ALADIN-Climat, regarding the representation of extreme precipitations. The runs were conducted in the framework of the ANR-SCAMPEI national project on high resolution scenarios over French mountains. As a first step, we attempt to quantify one of the uncertainties implied by the use of LAM : the size of the area on which the model is run. In particular, we address the issue of whether a relatively small domain allows the model to create its small scale process. Indeed, high resolution scenarios cannot be run on large domains because of the computation time. Therefore one needs to answer this preliminary question before producing and analyzing such scenarios. To do so, we worked in the framework of a « big brother » experiment. We performed a 23-year long global simulation in present-day climate (1979-2001) with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM, at a resolution of approximately 50 km over Europe (stretched grid). This first simulation, named ARP50, constitutes the « big brother » reference of our experiment. It has been validated in comparison with the CRU climatology. Then we filtered the short waves (up to 200 km) from ARP50 in order to obtain the equivalent of coarse resolution lateral boundary conditions (LBC). We have carried out three ALADIN-Climat simulations at a 50 km resolution with these LBC, using different configurations of the model : * FRA50, run over a small domain (2000 x 2000 km, centered over France), * EUR50, run over a larger domain (5000 x 5000 km, centered over France as well), * EUR50-SN, run over the large domain (using spectral nudging). Considering the facts that ARPEGE-Climat and ALADIN-Climat models share the same physics and dynamics

  13. On Quantile Regression in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces with Data Sparsity Constraint

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Chong; Liu, Yufeng; Wu, Yichao

    2015-01-01

    For spline regressions, it is well known that the choice of knots is crucial for the performance of the estimator. As a general learning framework covering the smoothing splines, learning in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) has a similar issue. However, the selection of training data points for kernel functions in the RKHS representation has not been carefully studied in the literature. In this paper we study quantile regression as an example of learning in a RKHS. In this case, the regular squared norm penalty does not perform training data selection. We propose a data sparsity constraint that imposes thresholding on the kernel function coefficients to achieve a sparse kernel function representation. We demonstrate that the proposed data sparsity method can have competitive prediction performance for certain situations, and have comparable performance in other cases compared to that of the traditional squared norm penalty. Therefore, the data sparsity method can serve as a competitive alternative to the squared norm penalty method. Some theoretical properties of our proposed method using the data sparsity constraint are obtained. Both simulated and real data sets are used to demonstrate the usefulness of our data sparsity constraint. PMID:27134575

  14. Improved point scale climate projections using a block bootstrap simulation and quantile matching method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokic, Philip; Jin, Huidong; Crimp, Steven

    2013-08-01

    Statistical downscaling methods are commonly used to address the scale mismatch between coarse resolution Global Climate Model output and the regional or local scales required for climate change impact assessments. The effectiveness of a downscaling method can be measured against four broad criteria: consistency with the existing baseline data in terms of means, trends and distributional characteristics; consistency with the broader scale climate data used to generate the projections; the degree of transparency and repeatability; and the plausibility of results produced. Many existing downscaling methods fail to fulfil all of these criteria. In this paper we examine a block bootstrap simulation technique combined with a quantile prediction and matching method for simulating future daily climate data. By utilising this method the distributional properties of the projected data will be influenced by the distribution of the observed data, the trends in predictors derived from the Global Climate Models and the relationship of these predictors to the observed data. Using observed data from several climate stations in Vanuatu and Fiji and out-of-sample validation techniques, we show that the method is successful at projecting various climate characteristics including the variability and auto-correlation of daily temperature and rainfall, the correlations between these variables and between spatial locations. This paper also illustrates how this novel method can produce more effective point scale projections and a more credible alternative to other approaches in the Pacific region.

  15. Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoss, F.; Fischbeck, P. S.

    2015-09-01

    This study applies quantile regression (QR) to predict exceedance probabilities of various water levels, including flood stages, with combinations of deterministic forecasts, past forecast errors and rates of water level rise as independent variables. A computationally cheap technique to estimate forecast uncertainty is valuable, because many national flood forecasting services, such as the National Weather Service (NWS), only publish deterministic single-valued forecasts. The study uses data from the 82 river gauges, for which the NWS' North Central River Forecast Center issues forecasts daily. Archived forecasts for lead times of up to 6 days from 2001 to 2013 were analyzed. Besides the forecast itself, this study uses the rate of rise of the river stage in the last 24 and 48 h and the forecast error 24 and 48 h ago as predictors in QR configurations. When compared to just using the forecast as an independent variable, adding the latter four predictors significantly improved the forecasts, as measured by the Brier skill score and the continuous ranked probability score. Mainly, the resolution increases, as the forecast-only QR configuration already delivered high reliability. Combining the forecast with the other four predictors results in a much less favorable performance. Lastly, the forecast performance does not strongly depend on the size of the training data set but on the year, the river gauge, lead time and event threshold that are being forecast. We find that each event threshold requires a separate configuration or at least calibration.

  16. Use of minimal inter-quantile distance estimation in image processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lukin, Vladimir V.; Abramov, Sergey K.; Zelensky, Alexander A.; Astola, Jaakko T.

    2006-08-01

    Nowadays multichannel (multi and hyperspectral) remote sensing (RS) is widely used in different areas. One of the basic factors that can deteriorate original image quality and prevent retrieval of useful information from RS data is noise. Thus, image filtering is a typical stage of multichannel image pre-processing. Among known filters, the most efficient ones commonly require a priori information concerning noise type and its statistical characteristics. This explains a great need in automatic (blind) methods for determination of noise type and its characteristics. Several such methods already exist, but majority of them do not perform appropriately well if analyzed images contain a large percentage of texture regions, details and edges. Besides, many blind methods are multistage where some preliminary and appropriately accurate estimate of noise variance is required for next stages. To get around aforementioned shortcomings, below we propose a new method based on using inter-quantile distance and its minimization for obtaining appropriately accurate estimates of noise variance. It is shown that mathematically this task can be formulated as finding a mode of contaminated asymmetric distribution. And this task can be met for other applications. The efficiency of the proposed method is studied for a wide set of model distribution parameters. Numerical simulation results that confirm applicability of the proposed approach are presented. They also allow evaluating the designed method accuracy. Recommendations on method parameter selection are given.

  17. Mechanism of adaptability for the nano-structured TiAlCrSiYN-based hard physical vapor deposition coatings under extreme frictional conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox-Rabinovich, G. S.; Endrino, J. L.; Aguirre, M. H.; Beake, B. D.; Veldhuis, S. C.; Kovalev, A. I.; Gershman, I. S.; Yamamoto, K.; Losset, Y.; Wainstein, D. L.; Rashkovskiy, A.

    2012-03-01

    Recently, a family of hard mono- and multilayer TiAlCrSiYN-based coatings have been introduced that exhibit adaptive behavior under extreme tribological conditions (in particular during dry ultrahigh speed machining of hardened tool steels). The major feature of these coatings is the formation of the tribo-films on the friction surface which possess high protective ability under operating temperatures of 1000 °C and above. These tribo-films are generated as a result of a self-organization process during friction. But the mechanism how these films affect adaptability of the hard coating is still an open question. The major mechanism proposed in this paper is associated with a strong gradient of temperatures within the layer of nano-scaled tribo-films. This trend was outlined by the performed thermodynamic analysis of friction phenomena combined with the developing of a numerical model of heat transfer within cutting zone based on the finite element method. The results of the theoretical studies show that the major physical-chemical processes during cutting are mostly concentrated within a layer of the tribo-films. This nano-tribological phenomenon produces beneficial heat distribution at the chip/tool interface which controls the tool life and wear behavior.Results of x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy studies indicate enhanced formation of protective sapphire- and mullite-like tribo-films on the friction surface of the multilayer TiAlCrSiYN/TiAlCrN coating. Comprehensive investigations of the structure and phase transformation within the coating layer under operation have been performed, using high resolution transmission electron microscopy, synchrotron radiation technique: x-ray absorption near-edge structure and XRD methods.The data obtained show that the tribo-films efficiently perform their thermal barrier functions preventing heat to penetrate into the body of coated cutting tool. Due to this the surface damaging process as well as non-beneficial phase

  18. The Trends in Excess Mortality in Winter vs. Summer in a Sub-Tropical City and Its Association with Extreme Climate Conditions.

    PubMed

    Chau, Pui Hing; Woo, Jean

    2015-01-01

    While there is literature on excess winter mortality, there are few studies examining the evolution of its trend which may be changing in parallel with global warming. This study aimed to examine the trend in the excess mortality in winter as compared to summer among the older population in a sub-tropical city and to explore its association with extreme weather. We used a retrospective study based on the registered deaths among the older population in Hong Kong during 1976-2010. An Excess Mortality for Winter versus Summer (EMWS) Index was used to quantify the excess number of deaths in winter compared to summer. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the trends and its association with extreme weather. Overall, the EMWS Index for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, pneumonia, and other causes were 43.0%, 34.2%, 42.7%, 23.4% and 17.6%, respectively. Significant decline was observed in the EMWS Index for chronic lower respiratory diseases and other causes. The trend in the index for cerebrovascular diseases depended on the age group, with older groups showing a decline but younger groups not showing any trend. Meteorological variables, in terms of extreme weather, were associated with the trends in the EMWS Index. We concluded that shrinking excess winter mortality from cerebrovascular diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases was found in a sub-tropical city. These trends were associated with extreme weather, which coincided with global warming. PMID:25993635

  19. The Trends in Excess Mortality in Winter vs. Summer in a Sub-Tropical City and Its Association with Extreme Climate Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Chau, Pui Hing; Woo, Jean

    2015-01-01

    While there is literature on excess winter mortality, there are few studies examining the evolution of its trend which may be changing in parallel with global warming. This study aimed to examine the trend in the excess mortality in winter as compared to summer among the older population in a sub-tropical city and to explore its association with extreme weather. We used a retrospective study based on the registered deaths among the older population in Hong Kong during 1976-2010. An Excess Mortality for Winter versus Summer (EMWS) Index was used to quantify the excess number of deaths in winter compared to summer. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the trends and its association with extreme weather. Overall, the EMWS Index for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, pneumonia, and other causes were 43.0%, 34.2%, 42.7%, 23.4% and 17.6%, respectively. Significant decline was observed in the EMWS Index for chronic lower respiratory diseases and other causes. The trend in the index for cerebrovascular diseases depended on the age group, with older groups showing a decline but younger groups not showing any trend. Meteorological variables, in terms of extreme weather, were associated with the trends in the EMWS Index. We concluded that shrinking excess winter mortality from cerebrovascular diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases was found in a sub-tropical city. These trends were associated with extreme weather, which coincided with global warming. PMID:25993635

  20. Extreme Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colvin, Jeff; Larsen, Jon

    2013-11-01

    Acknowledgements; 1. Extreme environments: what, where, how; 2. Properties of dense and classical plasmas; 3. Laser energy absorption in matter; 4. Hydrodynamic motion; 5. Shocks; 6. Equation of state; 7. Ionization; 8. Thermal energy transport; 9. Radiation energy transport; 10. Magnetohydrodynamics; 11. Considerations for constructing radiation-hydrodynamics computer codes; 12. Numerical simulations; Appendix: units and constants, glossary of symbols; References; Bibliography; Index.

  1. Assessment of extreme value distributions for maximum temperature in the Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, Alexander; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2015-04-01

    Extreme maximum temperatures highly affect the natural as well as the societal environment Heat stress has great effects on flora, fauna and humans and culminates in heat related morbidity and mortality. Agriculture and different industries are severely affected by extreme air temperatures. Even more under climate change conditions, it is necessary to detect potential hazards which arise from changes in the distributional parameters of extreme values, and this is especially relevant for the Mediterranean region which is characterized as a climate change hot spot. Therefore statistical approaches are developed to estimate these parameters with a focus on non-stationarities emerging in the relationship between regional climate variables and their large-scale predictors like sea level pressure, geopotential heights, atmospheric temperatures and relative humidity. Gridded maximum temperature data from the daily E-OBS dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from January 1950 until December 2012 are the predictands for the present analyses. A s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) has been performed in order to reduce data dimension and to retain different regions of similar maximum temperature variability. The grid box with the highest PC-loading represents the corresponding principal component. A central part of the analyses is the model development for temperature extremes under the use of extreme value statistics. A combined model is derived consisting of a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model and a quantile regression (QR) model which determines the GPD location parameters. The QR model as well as the scale parameters of the GPD model are conditioned by various large-scale predictor variables. In order to account for potential non-stationarities in the predictors-temperature relationships, a special calibration and validation scheme is applied, respectively. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P

  2. The Behavior of Hydrogen Under Extreme Conditions on Ultrafast Timescales (A "Life at the Frontiers of Energy Research" contest entry from the 2011 Energy Frontier Research Centers (EFRCs) Summit and Forum)

    ScienceCinema

    Mao, Ho-kwang (Director, Center for Energy Frontier Research in Extreme Environments); EFree Staff

    2011-11-02

    'The Behavior of Hydrogen Under Extreme Conditions on Ultrafast Timescales ' was submitted by the Center for Energy Frontier Research in Extreme Environments (EFree) to the 'Life at the Frontiers of Energy Research' video contest at the 2011 Science for Our Nation's Energy Future: Energy Frontier Research Centers (EFRCs) Summit and Forum. Twenty-six EFRCs created short videos to highlight their mission and their work. EFree is directed by Ho-kwang Mao at the Carnegie Institute of Washington and is a partnership of scientists from thirteen institutions.The Office of Basic Energy Sciences in the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science established the 46 Energy Frontier Research Centers (EFRCs) in 2009. These collaboratively-organized centers conduct fundamental research focused on 'grand challenges' and use-inspired 'basic research needs' recently identified in major strategic planning efforts by the scientific community. The overall purpose is to accelerate scientific progress toward meeting the nation's critical energy challenges. The mission of Energy Frontier Research in Extreme Environments is 'to accelerate the discovery and creation of energy-relevant materials using extreme pressures and temperatures.' Research topics are: catalysis (CO{sub 2}, water), photocatalysis, solid state lighting, optics, thermelectric, phonons, thermal conductivity, solar electrodes, fuel cells, superconductivity, extreme environment, radiation effects, defects, spin dynamics, CO{sub 2} (capture, convert, store), greenhouse gas, hydrogen (fuel, storage), ultrafast physics, novel materials synthesis, and defect tolerant materials.

  3. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

    2016-05-01

    The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation

  4. Inferring river bathymetry via Image-to-Depth Quantile Transformation (IDQT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legleiter, Carl J.

    2016-05-01

    Conventional, regression-based methods of inferring depth from passive optical image data undermine the advantages of remote sensing for characterizing river systems. This study introduces and evaluates a more flexible framework, Image-to-Depth Quantile Transformation (IDQT), that involves linking the frequency distribution of pixel values to that of depth. In addition, a new image processing workflow involving deep water correction and Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) transformation can reduce a hyperspectral data set to a single variable related to depth and thus suitable for input to IDQT. Applied to a gravel bed river, IDQT avoided negative depth estimates along channel margins and underpredictions of pool depth. Depth retrieval accuracy (R2 = 0.79) and precision (0.27 m) were comparable to an established band ratio-based method, although a small shallow bias (0.04 m) was observed. Several ways of specifying distributions of pixel values and depths were evaluated but had negligible impact on the resulting depth estimates, implying that IDQT was robust to these implementation details. In essence, IDQT uses frequency distributions of pixel values and depths to achieve an aspatial calibration; the image itself provides information on the spatial distribution of depths. The approach thus reduces sensitivity to misalignment between field and image data sets and allows greater flexibility in the timing of field data collection relative to image acquisition, a significant advantage in dynamic channels. IDQT also creates new possibilities for depth retrieval in the absence of field data if a model could be used to predict the distribution of depths within a reach.

  5. Gender differences in French GPs' activity: the contribution of quantile regressions.

    PubMed

    Dumontet, Magali; Franc, Carine

    2015-05-01

    In any fee-for-service system, doctors may be encouraged to increase the number of services (private activity) they provide to receive a higher income. Studying private activity determinants helps to predict doctors' provision of care. In the context of strong feminization and heterogeneity in general practitioners' (GP) behavior, we first aim to measure the effects of the determinants of private activity. Second, we study the evolution of these effects along the private activity distribution. Third, we examine the differences between male and female GPs. From an exhaustive database of French GPs working in private practice in 2008, we performed an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and quantile regressions (QR) on the GPs' private activity. Among other determinants, we examined the trade-offs within the GPs' household considering his/her marital status, spousal income, and children. While the OLS results showed that female GPs had less private activity than male GPs (-13%), the QR results emphasized a private activity gender gap that increased significantly in the upper tail of the distribution. We also find gender differences in the private activity determinants, including family structure, practice characteristics, and case-mix variables. For instance, having a youngest child under 12 years old had a positive effect on the level of private activity for male GPs and a negative effect for female GPs. The results allow us to understand to what extent the supply of care differs between male and female GPs. In the context of strong feminization, this is essential to consider for organizing and forecasting the GPs' supply of care. PMID:24700186

  6. Removing Batch Effects from Longitudinal Gene Expression - Quantile Normalization Plus ComBat as Best Approach for Microarray Transcriptome Data

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Christian; Schillert, Arne; Röthemeier, Caroline; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Proust, Carole; Binder, Harald; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Beutel, Manfred; Lackner, Karl J.; Schnabel, Renate B.; Tiret, Laurence; Wild, Philipp S.; Blankenberg, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Technical variation plays an important role in microarray-based gene expression studies, and batch effects explain a large proportion of this noise. It is therefore mandatory to eliminate technical variation while maintaining biological variability. Several strategies have been proposed for the removal of batch effects, although they have not been evaluated in large-scale longitudinal gene expression data. In this study, we aimed at identifying a suitable method for batch effect removal in a large study of microarray-based longitudinal gene expression. Monocytic gene expression was measured in 1092 participants of the Gutenberg Health Study at baseline and 5-year follow up. Replicates of selected samples were measured at both time points to identify technical variability. Deming regression, Passing-Bablok regression, linear mixed models, non-linear models as well as ReplicateRUV and ComBat were applied to eliminate batch effects between replicates. In a second step, quantile normalization prior to batch effect correction was performed for each method. Technical variation between batches was evaluated by principal component analysis. Associations between body mass index and transcriptomes were calculated before and after batch removal. Results from association analyses were compared to evaluate maintenance of biological variability. Quantile normalization, separately performed in each batch, combined with ComBat successfully reduced batch effects and maintained biological variability. ReplicateRUV performed perfectly in the replicate data subset of the study, but failed when applied to all samples. All other methods did not substantially reduce batch effects in the replicate data subset. Quantile normalization plus ComBat appears to be a valuable approach for batch correction in longitudinal gene expression data. PMID:27272489

  7. Electronics for Extreme Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patel, J. U.; Cressler, J.; Li, Y.; Niu, G.

    2001-01-01

    Most of the NASA missions involve extreme environments comprising radiation and low or high temperatures. Current practice of providing friendly ambient operating environment to electronics costs considerable power and mass (for shielding). Immediate missions such as the Europa orbiter and lander and Mars landers require the electronics to perform reliably in extreme conditions during the most critical part of the mission. Some other missions planned in the future also involve substantial surface activity in terms of measurements, sample collection, penetration through ice and crust and the analysis of samples. Thus it is extremely critical to develop electronics that could reliably operate under extreme space environments. Silicon On Insulator (SOI) technology is an extremely attractive candidate for NASA's future low power and high speed electronic systems because it offers increased transconductance, decreased sub-threshold slope, reduced short channel effects, elimination of kink effect, enhanced low field mobility, and immunity from radiation induced latch-up. A common belief that semiconductor devices function better at low temperatures is generally true for bulk devices but it does not hold true for deep sub-micron SOI CMOS devices with microscopic device features of 0.25 micrometers and smaller. Various temperature sensitive device parameters and device characteristics have recently been reported in the literature. Behavior of state of the art technology devices under such conditions needs to be evaluated in order to determine possible modifications in the device design for better performance and survivability under extreme environments. Here, we present a unique approach of developing electronics for extreme environments to benefit future NASA missions as described above. This will also benefit other long transit/life time missions such as the solar sail and planetary outposts in which electronics is out open in the unshielded space at the ambient space

  8. Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the

  9. Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willems, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

  10. Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan

    2006-04-01

    The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis or cyclones, is often based on short-term historical records that may not reflect the full range or magnitude of events possible. As human populations grow, especially in hazard-prone areas, methods for accurately assessing natural hazard risks are becoming increasingly important. In Extreme Events Jonathan Nott describes the many methods used to reconstruct such hazards from natural long-term records. He demonstrates how long-term (multi-century to millennial) records are essential in gaining a realistic understanding of the variability of natural hazards, and how short-term historical records can often misrepresent the likely risks associated with natural hazards. This book will form a useful resource for students taking courses covering natural hazards and risk assessment. It will also be valuable for urban planners, policy makers and non-specialists as a guide to understanding and reconstructing long-term records of natural hazards. Explains mechanisms that cause extreme events and discusses their prehistoric records Describes how to reconstruct long-term records of natural hazards in order to make accurate risk assessments Demonstrates that natural hazards can follow cycles over time and do not occur randomly

  11. The Time-resolved and Extreme-conditions XAS (TEXAS) facility at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility: the energy-dispersive X-ray absorption spectroscopy beamline ID24.

    PubMed

    Pascarelli, S; Mathon, O; Mairs, T; Kantor, I; Agostini, G; Strohm, C; Pasternak, S; Perrin, F; Berruyer, G; Chappelet, P; Clavel, C; Dominguez, M C

    2016-01-01

    The European Synchrotron Radiation Facility has recently made available to the user community a facility totally dedicated to Time-resolved and Extreme-conditions X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy--TEXAS. Based on an upgrade of the former energy-dispersive XAS beamline ID24, it provides a unique experimental tool combining unprecedented brilliance (up to 10(14) photons s(-1) on a 4 µm × 4 µm FWHM spot) and detection speed for a full EXAFS spectrum (100 ps per spectrum). The science mission includes studies of processes down to the nanosecond timescale, and investigations of matter at extreme pressure (500 GPa), temperature (10000 K) and magnetic field (30 T). The core activities of the beamline are centered on new experiments dedicated to the investigation of extreme states of matter that can be maintained only for very short periods of time. Here the infrastructure, optical scheme, detection systems and sample environments used to enable the mission-critical performance are described, and examples of first results on the investigation of the electronic and local structure in melts at pressure and temperature conditions relevant to the Earth's interior and in laser-shocked matter are given. PMID:26698085

  12. Empirical characterisation of ranges of mainstream smoke toxicant yields from contemporary cigarette products using quantile regression methodology.

    PubMed

    Camacho, Oscar M; Eldridge, Alison; Proctor, Christopher J; McAdam, Kevin

    2015-08-01

    Approximately 100 toxicants have been identified in cigarette smoke, to which exposure has been linked to a range of serious diseases in smokers. Smoking machines have been used to quantify toxicant emissions from cigarettes for regulatory reporting. The World Health Organization Study Group on Tobacco Product Regulation has proposed a regulatory scenario to identify median values for toxicants found in commercially available products, which could be used to set mandated limits on smoke emissions. We present an alternative approach, which used quantile regression to estimate reference percentiles to help contextualise the toxicant yields of commercially available products with respect to a reference analyte, such as tar or nicotine. To illustrate this approach we examined four toxicants (acetone, N'-nitrosoanatabine, phenol and pyridine) with respect to tar, and explored International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and Health Canada Intense (HCI) regimes. We compared this approach with other methods for assessing toxicants in cigarette smoke, such as ratios to nicotine or tar, and linear regression. We concluded that the quantile regression approach effectively represented data distributions across toxicants for both ISO and HCI regimes. This method provides robust, transparent and intuitive percentile estimates in relation to any desired reference value within the data space. PMID:26021184

  13. Extremely low frequency magnetic fields can either increase or decrease analgaesia in the land snail depending on field and light conditions.

    PubMed

    Prato, F S; Kavaliers, M; Thomas, A W

    2000-05-01

    Results of prior investigations with opioid peptide mediated antinociception or analgaesia have suggested that these extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic field effects are described by a resonance mechanism rather than mechanisms based on either induced currents or magnetite. Here we show that ELF magnetic fields (141-414 microT peak) can, in a manner consistent with the predictions of Lednev's parametric resonance model (PRM) for the calcium ion, either (i) reduce, (ii) have no effect on, or (iii) increase endogenous opioid mediated analgaesia in the land snail, Cepaea nemoralis. When the magnetic fields were set to parameters for the predictions of the PRM for the potassium ion, opioid-peptide mediated analgaesia increased and there was evidence of antagonism by the K(+) channel blocker, glibenclamide. Furthermore, these effects were dependent on the presence of light; the effects were absent in the absence of light. These observed increases and decreases in opioid analgaesia are largely consistent with the predictions of Lednev's PRM. PMID:10797457

  14. Triad of spinal pain, spinal joint dysfunction, and extremity pain in 4 pediatric cases of “Wii-itis”: a 21st century pediatric condition

    PubMed Central

    Rubin, Drew

    2010-01-01

    Objective This article describes 4 pediatric cases of overuse injuries related to playing Nintendo Wii (Nintendo, Redmond, WA). A brief discussion is also presented regarding other 21st century problems found in the literature, such as problems associated with playing the Nintendo DS portable electronic device, text messaging, and Blackberry (Research in Motion, Waterloo, Ontario) thumb. Clinical Features Four pediatric patients, ranging from 3 to 9 years old, who had injuries causally related to what has been described in the literature as “Wii-itis” (spinal pain, spinal joint dysfunction [chiropractic subluxation], and related extremity pain), presented to a chiropractic clinic. Intervention and Outcomes Each of the 4 pediatric cases was evaluated and managed using chiropractic techniques. All patients successfully had their complaints resolve with 1 chiropractic visit. Conclusion Children in the new era of portable electronic devices are presenting to chiropractic offices with a set of symptoms directly related to overuse or repetitive strain from prolonged play on these systems. PMID:21629555

  15. Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lute, A. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Hegewisch, K. C.

    2015-02-01

    Projected warming will have significant impacts on snowfall accumulation and melt, with implications for water availability and management in snow-dominated regions. Changes in snowfall extremes are confounded by projected increases in precipitation extremes. Downscaled climate projections from 20 global climate models were bias-corrected to montane Snowpack Telemetry stations across the western United States to assess mid-21st century changes in the mean and variability of annual snowfall water equivalent (SFE) and extreme snowfall events, defined by the 90th percentile of cumulative 3 day SFE amounts. Declines in annual SFE and number of snowfall days were projected for all stations. Changes in the magnitude of snowfall event quantiles were sensitive to historical winter temperature. At climatologically cooler locations, such as in the Rocky Mountains, changes in the magnitude of snowfall events mirrored changes in the distribution of precipitation events, with increases in extremes and less change in more moderate events. By contrast, declines in snowfall event magnitudes were found for all quantiles in warmer locations. Common to both warmer and colder sites was a relative increase in the magnitude of snowfall extremes compared to annual SFE and a larger fraction of annual SFE from snowfall extremes. The coefficient of variation of annual SFE increased up to 80% in warmer montane regions due to projected declines in snowfall days and the increased contribution of snowfall extremes to annual SFE. In addition to declines in mean annual SFE, more frequent low-snowfall years and less frequent high-snowfall years were projected for every station.

  16. Extreme Precipitation Mapping for Flood Risk Assessment in Ungauged Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohnova, S.; Parajka, J.; Szolgay, J.; Hlavcova, K.

    2009-04-01

    The poster present a study of mapping 2-year and 100-year annual maximum daily precipitation for rainfall-runoff studies and estimating flood hazard. The main objective was to discuss the quality and properties of maps of design precipitation with a given return period with respect to the expectations of the end user community. Four approaches to the preprocessing of annual maximum 24-hour precipitation data were used, and three interpolation methods employed. The first method is the direct mapping of at-site estimates of distribution function quantiles; the second is the direct mapping of local estimates of the three parameters of the GEV distribution. In the third method, the daily measurements of the precipitation totals were interpolated into a regular grid network, and then the time series of the maximum daily precipitation totals in each grid point of the selected region were statistically analysed. In the fourth method, the spatial distribution of the design precipitation was modeled by quantiles predicted by regional precipitation frequency analysis using the Hosking and Wallis procedure. Homogeneity of the region of interest was tested, and the index value (the mean annual maximum daily precipitation) was mapped using spatial interpolation (instead of the more usual regional regression). Quantiles were derived through the dimensionless regional frequency distribution estimated by using L-moments. The three interpolation methods used were the inverse distance weighting, nearest neighbor and the kriging method. The daily precipitation measurements at 23 climate stations from 1961-2000 were used in the upper Hron basin in central Slovakia. Visual inspection and jackknife cross-validation was used to compare the combination of approaches. Under the specific regime dominated by thermal and frontal convective events, the potential advantage of using mapping of daily precipitation series as a basis for quantile estimation was not shown and under the given

  17. High-sensitivity nuclear magnetic resonance at Giga-Pascal pressures: a new tool for probing electronic and chemical properties of condensed matter under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Meier, Thomas; Haase, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is one of the most important techniques for the study of condensed matter systems, their chemical structure, and their electronic properties. The application of high pressure enables one to synthesize new materials, but the response of known materials to high pressure is a very useful tool for studying their electronic structure and developing theories. For example, high-pressure synthesis might be at the origin of life; and understanding the behavior of small molecules under extreme pressure will tell us more about fundamental processes in our universe. It is no wonder that there has always been great interest in having NMR available at high pressures. Unfortunately, the desired pressures are often well into the Giga-Pascal (GPa) range and require special anvil cell devices where only very small, secluded volumes are available. This has restricted the use of NMR almost entirely in the past, and only recently, a new approach to high-sensitivity GPa NMR, which has a resonating micro-coil inside the sample chamber, was put forward. This approach enables us to achieve high sensitivity with experiments that bring the power of NMR to Giga-Pascal pressure condensed matter research. First applications, the detection of a topological electronic transition in ordinary aluminum metal and the closing of the pseudo-gap in high-temperature superconductivity, show the power of such an approach. Meanwhile, the range of achievable pressures was increased tremendously with a new generation of anvil cells (up to 10.1 GPa), that fit standard-bore NMR magnets. This approach might become a new, important tool for the investigation of many condensed matter systems, in chemistry, geochemistry, and in physics, since we can now watch structural changes with the eyes of a very versatile probe. PMID:25350694

  18. Changes in Seasonal and Extreme Hydrologic Conditions of the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound in an Ensemble Regional Climate Simulation for the Mid-Century

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2003-12-15

    This study examines an ensemble of climate change projections simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and downscaled with a region climate model (RCM) to 40 km spatial resolution for the western North America. One control and three ensemble future climate simulations were produced by the GCM following a business as usual scenario for greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions from 1995 to 2100. The RCM was used to downscale the GCM control simulation (1995-2015) and each ensemble future GCM climate (2040-2060) simulation. Analyses of the regional climate simulations for the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound showed a warming of 1.5-2oC and statistically insignificant changes in precipitation by the mid-century. Climate change has large impacts on snowpack (about 50% reduction) but relatively smaller impacts on the total runoff for the basin as a whole. However, climate change can strongly affect small watersheds such as those located in the transient snow zone, causing a higher likelihood of winter flooding as a higher percentage of precipitation falls in the form of rain rather than snow, and reduced streamflow in early summer. In addition, there are large changes in the monthly total runoff above the upper 1% threshold (or flood volume) from October through May, and the December flood volume of the future climate is 60% above the maximum monthly flood volume of the control climate. Uncertainty of the climate change projections, as characterized by the spread among the ensemble future climate simulations, is relatively small for the basin mean snowpack and runoff, but increases in smaller watersheds, especially in the transient snow zone, and associated with extreme events. This emphasizes the importance of characterizing uncertainty through ensemble simulations.

  19. Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.

    2015-03-01

    The increasing effort to develop and apply nonstationary models in hydrologic frequency analyses under changing environmental conditions can be frustrated when the additional uncertainty related to the model complexity is accounted for along with the sampling uncertainty. In order to show the practical implications and possible problems of using nonstationary models and provide critical guidelines, in this study we review the main tools developed in this field (such as nonstationary distribution functions, return periods, and risk of failure) highlighting advantages and disadvantages. The discussion is supported by three case studies that revise three illustrative examples reported in the scientific and technical literature referring to the Little Sugar Creek (at Charlotte, North Carolina), Red River of the North (North Dakota/Minnesota), and the Assunpink Creek (at Trenton, New Jersey). The uncertainty of the results is assessed by complementing point estimates with confidence intervals (CIs) and emphasizing critical aspects such as the subjectivity affecting the choice of the models' structure. Our results show that (1) nonstationary frequency analyses should not only be based on at-site time series but require additional information and detailed exploratory data analyses (EDA); (2) as nonstationary models imply that the time-varying model structure holds true for the entire future design life period, an appropriate modeling strategy requires that EDA identifies a well-defined deterministic mechanism leading the examined process; (3) when the model structure cannot be inferred in a deductive manner and nonstationary models are fitted by inductive inference, model structure introduces an additional source of uncertainty so that the resulting nonstationary models can provide no practical enhancement of the credibility and accuracy of the predicted extreme quantiles, whereas possible model misspecification can easily lead to physically inconsistent results; (4) when

  20. The examination of relationship between socioeconomic factors and number of tuberculosis using quantile regression model for count data in Iran 2010-2011

    PubMed Central

    Sarvi, Fatemeh; Momenian, Somayeh; Khodadost, Mahmoud; Pahlavanzadeh, Bagher; Nasehi, Mahshid; Sekhavati, Eghbal

    2016-01-01

    Background: Poverty and low socioeconomic status are the most important reasons of increasing the global burden of tuberculosis, not only in developing countries but also in developed countries for particular groups. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between socioeconomic factors and the number of tuberculosis patients using quantile regression for count data. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 11,320 tuberculosis patients from March 2010 to March 201 in Iran. Data was gathered from the 345 sections of Iran by Ministry of Health and Medical Education and Statistical Center of Iran. The jittering method was applied for smoothing, and then, the quantile regression for count data was fitted. The AIC was used to compare the fitness of quantile regression for count data model and Poisson log-linear model. The R (3.0.1) software and Quantreg and AER packages were used for all analysis and modeling of the data. Results: The results of fitting the quantile regression for count data showed that in all percentiles, the more increase in immigration rate, illiteracy rate, unemployment and urbanization rates, the more tuberculosis morbidity rate was increased. The maximum increase of tuberculosis due to immigration rate, urbanization rate, unemployment rate, and illiteracy rate was in 95th percentile (β^=0.315), 85'Th percentile (β^=0.162), 75'Th percentile (β^=0.114 ), and 95'Th percentile (β^=0.304), respectively. For 50th percentiles and higher percentiles, with increasing the sum of physicians to the number of population, the tuberculosis morbidity rate was decreased, and the maximum decrease was in 95'Th percentile ( β^=-0.1). For all percentiles, the AIC showed that quantile regression for count data had been a better fit to data. Conclusion: With respect to the relationship between socioeconomic factors and TB rate, health care observers should pay close attention to improving these factors in Iran to reduce the TB mortality

  1. Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation for Sicily (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forestieri, Angelo; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley; Lo Conti, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of extreme precipitation has always been included among most relevant hydrological applications because of the several important activities linked to the availability of tools for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles. These activities include the design of hydraulic civil structures and the evaluation and management of hydraulic and hydrological risk. In this study a frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation measurements has been carried out for the area of Sicily (Italy). A typical hierarchical regional approach has been adopted for the parameter estimation procedure based on the L-moments method. The identification of homogeneous regions within the procedure has been pursued with a data driven procedure constituted by a principal component analysis of an ensemble of selected auxiliary variables, and a K-means cluster analysis algorithm. Auxiliary variables comprise meteo-climatic information and a representation of the average seasonal distribution of intense events. Results have been evaluated by means of a Monte Carlo experiment based on the comparison between at-site and regional fitted frequency distributions. Moreover, results have been compared with previous analyses performed for the same area. The study provides an updated tool for the modelling of extreme precipitation for the area of Sicily (Italy), with different features respect to previous tools both in terms of definition of homogeneous zones and in terms of parameters of the frequency distribution. Meteo-climatic information and the seasonality of extreme events retrieved from the dataset has been proficuously exploited in the analysis.

  2. RNA-Seq effectively monitors gene expression in Eutrema salsugineum plants growing in an extreme natural habitat and in controlled growth cabinet conditions

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The investigation of extremophile plant species growing in their natural environment offers certain advantages, chiefly that plants adapted to severe habitats have a repertoire of stress tolerance genes that are regulated to maximize plant performance under physiologically challenging conditions. Accordingly, transcriptome sequencing offers a powerful approach to address questions concerning the influence of natural habitat on the physiology of an organism. We used RNA sequencing of Eutrema salsugineum, an extremophile relative of Arabidopsis thaliana, to investigate the extent to which genetic variation and controlled versus natural environments contribute to differences between transcript profiles. Results Using 10 million cDNA reads, we compared transcriptomes from two natural Eutrema accessions (originating from Yukon Territory, Canada and Shandong Province, China) grown under controlled conditions in cabinets and those from Yukon plants collected at a Yukon field site. We assessed the genetic heterogeneity between individuals using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the expression patterns of 27,016 genes. Over 39,000 SNPs distinguish the Yukon from the Shandong accessions but only 4,475 SNPs differentiated transcriptomes of Yukon field plants from an inbred Yukon line. We found 2,989 genes that were differentially expressed between the three sample groups and multivariate statistical analyses showed that transcriptomes of individual plants from a Yukon field site were as reproducible as those from inbred plants grown under controlled conditions. Predicted functions based upon gene ontology classifications show that the transcriptomes of field plants were enriched by the differential expression of light- and stress-related genes, an observation consistent with the habitat where the plants were found. Conclusion Our expectation that comparative RNA-Seq analysis of transcriptomes from plants originating in natural habitats would be confounded

  3. Acute toxicities of pharmaceuticals toward green algae. mode of action, biopharmaceutical drug disposition classification system and quantile regression models.

    PubMed

    Villain, Jonathan; Minguez, Laetitia; Halm-Lemeille, Marie-Pierre; Durrieu, Gilles; Bureau, Ronan

    2016-02-01

    The acute toxicities of 36 pharmaceuticals towards green algae were estimated from a set of quantile regression models representing the first global quantitative structure-activity relationships. The selection of these pharmaceuticals was based on their predicted environmental concentrations. An agreement between the estimated values and the observed acute toxicity values was found for several families of pharmaceuticals, in particular, for antidepressants. A recent classification (BDDCS) of drugs based on ADME properties (Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism and Excretion) was clearly correlated with the acute ecotoxicities towards algae. Over-estimation of toxicity from our QSAR models was observed for classes 2, 3 and 4 whereas our model results were in agreement for the class 1 pharmaceuticals. Clarithromycin, a class 3 antibiotic characterized by weak metabolism and high solubility, was the most toxic to algae (molecular stability and presence in surface water). PMID:26590695

  4. Differential association of cardiorespiratory fitness and central adiposity among US adolescents and adults: A quantile regression approach.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Samantha M; Ortaglia, Andrew; Bottai, Matteo; Supino, Christina

    2016-07-01

    Previous studies assessing the association between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and waist circumference (WC) have often restricted their evaluation to the association of CRF on average WC. Consequently, the assessment of important variations in the relationship of CRF across the WC distribution was precluded. The purpose of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the association between CRF and the distribution of WC using quantile regression. Secondary data analysis was conducted using data from the 1999-2004 NHANES. Participants (n=8260) aged 12-49years with complete data on estimated maximal oxygen consumption and WC were included. Quantile regression models were performed to assess the association between CRF and the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th WC percentiles and were adjusted for age and race/ethnicity. For male and female adolescents with high CRF compared to low-fit counterparts, significant negative estimates (2.8 to 20.2cm and 2.3 to 11.2cm, respectively) were observed across most WC percentiles. Similarly, among male and female adults, high CRF was associated with significant reductions in WC across all percentiles (9.5 to 12.0cm and 3.7 to 9.2cm, respectively). For both populations, an increasing trend in the magnitude of the association of high CRF across the WC percentiles was observed. CRF appears to have a differential relationship across the WC distribution with the largest reductions in WC were found among high-fit individuals with the greatest amount of central adiposity (WC≥90th percentile). Additionally, this differential association highlights the significant limitations of statistical techniques used in previous analyses which focused on the center of the distribution. PMID:27002254

  5. Crystallization conditions of porphyritic high-K calc-alkaline granitoids in the extreme northeastern Borborema Province, NE Brazil, and geodynamic implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campos, Benedita Cleide Souza; Vilalva, Frederico Castro Jobim; Nascimento, Marcos Antônio Leite do; Galindo, Antônio Carlos

    2016-10-01

    An integrated textural and chemical study on amphibole, biotite, plagioclase, titanite, epidote, and magnetite was conducted in order to estimate crystallization conditions, along with possible geodynamic implications, for six Ediacaran porphyritic high-K calc-alkaline granite plutons (Monte das Gameleiras, Barcelona, Acari, Caraúbas, Tourão, and Catolé do Rocha) intrusive into Archean to Paleoproterozoic rocks of the São José do Campestre (SJCD) and Rio Piranhas-Seridó (RPSD) domains, northern Borborema Province. The studied rocks include mainly porphyritic leucocratic monzogranites, as well as quartz-monzonites and granodiorites. Textures are marked by K-feldspar megacrysts (5-15 cm long) in a fine-to medium-grained matrix composed of quartz, plagioclase, amphibole, biotite, as well as titanite, epidote, Fesbnd Ti oxides, allanite, apatite, and zircon as accessory minerals. Amphibole, biotite and titanite share similar compositional variations defined by increasing Al and Fe, and decreasing Mg contents from the plutons emplaced into the SJCP (Monte das Gameleiras and Barcelona) towards those in the RPSD (Acari, Caraúbas, Tourão, and Catolé do Rocha). Estimated intensive crystallization parameters reveal a weak westward range of increasing depth of emplacement, pressure and temperature in the study area. The SJCD plutons (to the east) crystallized at shallower crustal depths (14-21 km), under slightly lower pressure (3.8-5.5 kbar) and temperature (701-718 °C) intervals, and high to moderate oxygen fugacity conditions (+0.8 < ΔFQM < +2.0). On the other hand, the RPSD plutons (to the west) were emplaced at slightly deeper depths (18-23 km), under higher, yet variable pressures (4.8-6.2 kbar), temperatures (723-776 °C), and moderate to low oxygen fugacity conditions (-1.0 < ΔFQM < +1.8). These results reinforce the contrasts between the tectono-strutuctural domains of São José do Campestre and Rio Piranhas-Seridó in the northern Borborema Province.

  6. Constraints on Earth’s inner core composition inferred from measurements of the sound velocity of hcp-iron in extreme conditions

    PubMed Central

    Sakamaki, Tatsuya; Ohtani, Eiji; Fukui, Hiroshi; Kamada, Seiji; Takahashi, Suguru; Sakairi, Takanori; Takahata, Akihiro; Sakai, Takeshi; Tsutsui, Satoshi; Ishikawa, Daisuke; Shiraishi, Rei; Seto, Yusuke; Tsuchiya, Taku; Baron, Alfred Q. R.

    2016-01-01

    Hexagonal close-packed iron (hcp-Fe) is a main component of Earth’s inner core. The difference in density between hcp-Fe and the inner core in the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) shows a density deficit, which implies an existence of light elements in the core. Sound velocities then provide an important constraint on the amount and kind of light elements in the core. Although seismological observations provide density–sound velocity data of Earth’s core, there are few measurements in controlled laboratory conditions for comparison. We report the compressional sound velocity (VP) of hcp-Fe up to 163 GPa and 3000 K using inelastic x-ray scattering from a laser-heated sample in a diamond anvil cell. We propose a new high-temperature Birch’s law for hcp-Fe, which gives us the VP of pure hcp-Fe up to core conditions. We find that Earth’s inner core has a 4 to 5% smaller density and a 4 to 10% smaller VP than hcp-Fe. Our results demonstrate that components other than Fe in Earth’s core are required to explain Earth’s core density and velocity deficits compared to hcp-Fe. Assuming that the temperature effects on iron alloys are the same as those on hcp-Fe, we narrow down light elements in the inner core in terms of the velocity deficit. Hydrogen is a good candidate; thus, Earth’s core may be a hidden hydrogen reservoir. Silicon and sulfur are also possible candidates and could show good agreement with PREM if we consider the presence of some melt in the inner core, anelasticity, and/or a premelting effect. PMID:26933678

  7. MID-INFRARED POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBON AND H{sub 2} EMISSION AS A PROBE OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS IN EXTREME PHOTODISSOCIATION REGIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Berne, O.; Goicoechea, J. R.; Fuente, A.; Pilleri, P.; Joblin, C.; Gonzalez-GarcIa, M.

    2009-11-20

    Mid-infrared (mid-IR) observations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and molecular hydrogen emission are a potentially powerful tool to derive physical properties of dense environments irradiated by intense UV fields. We present new, spatially resolved, Spitzer mid-IR spectroscopy of the high UV field and dense photodissociation region (PDR) around Monoceros R2, the closest ultracompact H II region, revealing the spatial structure of ionized gas, PAHs, and H{sub 2} emissions. Using a PDR model and PAH emission feature fitting algorithm, we build a comprehensive picture of the physical conditions prevailing in the region. We show that the combination of the measurement of PAH ionization fraction and of the ratio between the H{sub 2} 0-0 S(3) and S(2) line intensities, respectively, at 9.7 and 12.3 mum, allows us to derive the fundamental parameters driving the PDR: temperature, density, and UV radiation field when they fall in the ranges T = 250-1500 K, n {sub H} = 10{sup 4}-10{sup 6} cm{sup -3}, and G {sub 0} = 10{sup 3}-10{sup 5}, respectively. These mid-IR spectral tracers thus provide a tool to probe the similar but unresolved UV-illuminated surface of protoplanetary disks or the nuclei of starburst galaxies.

  8. The ECORS-Truc Vert'08 nearshore field experiment: presentation of a three-dimensional morphologic system in a macro-tidal environment during consecutive extreme storm conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senechal, Nadia; Abadie, Stéphane; Gallagher, Edith; Macmahan, Jamie; Masselink, Gerd; Michallet, Hervé; Reniers, Ad; Ruessink, Gerben; Russell, Paul; Sous, Damien; Turner, Ian; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Bonneton, Philippe; Bujan, Stéphane; Capo, Sylvain; Certain, Raphael; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Garlan, Thierry

    2011-12-01

    A large multi-institutional nearshore field experiment was conducted at Truc Vert, on the Atlantic coast of France in early 2008. Truc Vert'08 was designed to measure beach change on a long, sandy stretch of coast without engineering works with emphasis on large winter waves (offshore significant wave height up to 8 m), a three-dimensional morphology, and macro-tidal conditions. Nearshore wave transformation, circulation and bathymetric changes involve coupled processes at many spatial and temporal scales thus implying the need to improve our knowledge for the full spectrum of scales to achieve a comprehensive view of th