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Sample records for extreme response estimation

  1. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  2. Estimating the Likelihood of Extreme Seismogenic Tsunamis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geist, E. L.

    2011-12-01

    Because of high levels of destruction to coastal communities and critical facilities from recent tsunamis, estimating the likelihood of extreme seismogenic tsunamis has gained increased attention. Seismogenic tsunami generating capacity is directly related to the scalar seismic moment of the earthquake. As such, earthquake size distributions and recurrence can inform the likelihood of tsunami occurrence. The probability of extreme tsunamis is dependent on how the right-hand tail of the earthquake size distribution is specified. As evidenced by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, it is likely that there is insufficient historical information to estimate the maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax) for any specific subduction zone. Mmax may in fact not be a useful concept for subduction zones of significant length. Earthquake size distributions with a soft corner moment appear more consistent with global observations. Estimating the likelihood of extreme local tsunami runup is complicated by the fact that there is significant uncertainty in the scaling relationship between seismic moment and maximum local tsunami runup. This uncertainty arises from variations in source parameters specific to tsunami generation and the near-shore hydrodynamic response. The primary source effect is how slip is distributed along the fault relative to the overlying water depth. For high slip beneath deep water, shoaling amplification of the tsunami increases substantially according to Green's Law, compared to an equivalent amount of slip beneath shallow water. Both stochastic slip models and dynamic rupture models of tsunamigenic earthquakes are explored in a probabilistic context. The nearshore hydrodynamic response includes attenuating mechanisms, such as wave breaking, and amplifying mechanisms, such as constructive interference of trapped and non-trapped modes. Probabilistic estimates of extreme tsunamis are therefore site specific, as indicated by significant variations

  3. Extreme wind turbine response during operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sørensen, John D.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.

    2007-07-01

    Estimation of extreme response values is very important for structural design of wind turbines. Due to the influence of control system and nonlinear structural behavior the extreme response is usually assessed based on simulation of turbulence time series. In this paper the problem of statistical load extrapolation is considered using techniques from structural reliability theory. Different simulation techniques to estimate extreme response characteristics are described and compared, including crude Monte Carlo simulation, Importance Sampling, and splitting methods such as the Russian Roulette and the Double and Clump algorithm. A statistically consistent technique is described for including statistical uncertainty and assessing the extreme 50-year response using simulated time series and conditioned on the model parameters. The peak over threshold method together with the Maximum Likelihood Method provides a tool to obtain consistent estimates incl. the statistical uncertainty. An illustrative example indicates that the statistical uncertainty is important compared to the coefficient of variation of the extreme response when the number of 10 minutes simulations at each mean wind speed is limited to 10.

  4. Extremes of Population Estimated from Kepler Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traub, Wesley A.

    2015-12-01

    The extremes of exoplanet population (0.5 to 16 Earth radii, 0.5 to 512 days period) are estimated from Kepler observations by comparing the observed numbers of planets at each radius and period against a simulation that accounts for the probability of transit and the estimated instrument sensitivity. By assuming that the population can be modeled as a function of period times a function of radius, and further assuming that these functions are broken power laws, sufficient leverage is gained such that the well-measured short-period extreme of the planet distribution can effectively be used as a template for the less-well sampled long-period extreme. The resulting population distribution over this full range of radius and period provides a challenge to models of the origin and evolution of planetary systems.

  5. Estimating the Response and Uncertainty Limits of Physical Processes in the South San Francisco Bay for Extreme Water Elevation Frequency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andes, L.; Wu, F.; Lo, J.; MacWilliams, M.; Lu, C.; Dean, R.; Hanes, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Coastal flooding in the far south San Francisco Bay (SSFB) can be a function of astronomical tide, residual tide (i.e. water elevation deviation from computed astronomical tide that is associated with many possible physical processes), in-bay wind speed and direction and fluvial discharge. These physical processes and coastal levee failure were considered as input parameters into a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to estimate extreme water elevation frequency in the SSFB. Limited data is available in the SSFB to estimate the contribution of these physical processes to extreme water elevation statistics. Over 100 years of measured water surface elevation (WSE) data is available at the San Francisco (SF) tide station. A sensitivity analysis of storm event sampling criteria was conducted to select significant events at the SF tide station for data transfer to the project site and statistical analysis. The coincidently sampled astronomical and residual tides at the San Francisco tide station were analyzed and used to develop the storm event databases. Sampling methods employed were compared with annual maximum and partial duration approaches. Additional statistical testing was performed to justify the assumption of coincident sampling. The selected database was found to be most representative of the full range of the combinations of astronomical and residual tides that contribute to extreme water elevation statistics at the project site. A look-up table of astronomical and residual tide, wind speed and direction, and levee failure in the form of WSE responses at the project site from the hydrodynamic simulations was established for the interpolation in the MCS. The hydrodynamic model simulations indicated that the astronomical tides in the SSFB amplify inversely as a function of tidal range at the SF tide station. The residual tide varies minimally as it propagates into the SSFB. In-Bay wind set-up from a significant event was found to contribute on the order of one foot

  6. Extreme Earthquake Risk Estimation by Hybrid Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the risk associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid modeling which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) modeling in order to estimate the seismic risk of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid modeling for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican

  7. Generalized IRT Models for Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Extreme response style (ERS) is a systematic tendency for a person to endorse extreme options (e.g., strongly disagree, strongly agree) on Likert-type or rating-scale items. In this study, we develop a new class of item response theory (IRT) models to account for ERS so that the target latent trait is free from the response style and the tendency…

  8. A Test-Length Correction to the Estimation of Extreme Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magis, David; Beland, Sebastien; Raiche, Gilles

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the estimation of extremely large or extremely small proficiency levels, given the item parameters of a logistic item response model, is investigated. On one hand, the estimation of proficiency levels by maximum likelihood (ML), despite being asymptotically unbiased, may yield infinite estimates. On the other hand, with an…

  9. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moody, John A.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  10. Materials Response under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Remington, B A; Lorenz, K T; Pollaine, S; McNaney, J M

    2005-10-06

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures, 10-100 GPa (0.1-1 Mbar) and strain rates (10{sup 6}-10{sup 8} s{sup -1}) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. The goal is an experimental capability to test constitutive models for high-pressure, solid-state strength for a variety of materials. Relevant constitutive models are discussed, and our progress in developing a quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure, shockless drive is given. Designs to test the constitutive models with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples are presented.

  11. Simulation and Estimation of Extreme Quantiles and Extreme Probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Guyader, Arnaud; Hengartner, Nicolas; Matzner-Lober, Eric

    2011-10-15

    Let X be a random vector with distribution {mu} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and {Phi} be a mapping from Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} to Double-Struck-Capital-R . That mapping acts as a black box, e.g., the result from some computer experiments for which no analytical expression is available. This paper presents an efficient algorithm to estimate a tail probability given a quantile or a quantile given a tail probability. The algorithm improves upon existing multilevel splitting methods and can be analyzed using Poisson process tools that lead to exact description of the distribution of the estimated probabilities and quantiles. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in a problem related to digital watermarking.

  12. Multiscale Measurement of Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolt, Daniel M.; Newton, Joseph R.

    2011-01-01

    This article extends a methodological approach considered by Bolt and Johnson for the measurement and control of extreme response style (ERS) to the analysis of rating data from multiple scales. Specifically, it is shown how the simultaneous analysis of item responses across scales allows for more accurate identification of ERS, and more effective…

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2010-12-01

    Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

  14. Methodology for estimating extreme winds for probabilistic risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Elliott, D.L.; Holladay, C.G.; Hubbe, J.M.

    1986-10-01

    The US Nuclear Reguulatory Commission (NRC) assesses the risks associated with nuclear faciliies using techniques that fall under a generic name of Probabilistic Risk Assessment. In these assessments, potential accident sequences are traced from initiating event to final outcome. At each step of the sequence, a probability of occurrence is assigned to each available alternative. Ultimately, the probability of occurrence of each possible outcome is determined from the probabilities assigned to the initiating events and the alternative paths. Extreme winds are considered in these sequences. As a result, it is necessary to estimate extreme wind probabilities as low as 10/sup -7/yr/sup -1/. When the NRC staff is called on to provide extreme wind estimates, the staff is likely to be subjected to external time and funding constraints. These constraints dictate that the estimates be based on readily available wind data. In general, readily available data will be limited to the data provided by the facility applicant or licensee and the data archived at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. This report describes readily available data that can be used in estimating extreme wind probabilities, procedures of screening the data to eliminate erroneous values and for adjusting data to compensate for differences in data collection methods, and statistical methods for making extreme wind estimates. Supporting technical details are presented in several appendices. Estimation of extreme wind probabilities at a given location involves many subjective decisions. The procedures described do not eliminate all of the subjectivity, but they do increase the reproducibility of the analysis. They provide consistent methods for determining probabilities given a set of subjective decisions. By following these procedures, subjective decisions can be identified and documented.

  15. Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Silva, Anisha

    This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

  16. A Simulation Study on Methods of Correcting for the Effects of Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wetzel, Eunike; Böhnke, Jan R.; Rose, Norman

    2016-01-01

    The impact of response styles such as extreme response style (ERS) on trait estimation has long been a matter of concern to researchers and practitioners. This simulation study investigated three methods that have been proposed for the correction of trait estimates for ERS effects: (a) mixed Rasch models, (b) multidimensional item response models,…

  17. Estimation of trends in rainfall extremes with mixed effects models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamruzzaman, M.; Beecham, S.; Metcalfe, A. V.

    2016-02-01

    Estimates of seasonal rainfall maxima at durations as short as 6 min are needed for many applications including the design and analysis of urban drainage systems. It is also important to investigate whether or not there is evidence of changes in these extremes, both as an indicator of the sensitivity of rainfall to anthropogenic and natural climate change and as an aid to the calibration of future scenarios. Estimation of trends in extreme values in a region needs to be based on all the available data if precision is to be achieved. However, extremes at different periods of accumulation at neighbouring sites are not independent because there are temporal and spatial correlations, respectively. A linear mixed effects (lme) model allows for this correlation structure, and can be fitted to unequal record lengths at different sites. The modelling technique is demonstrated with an analysis of monthly maximum rainfall, at nine aggregations between 6 min and 24 h, from six sites, with record lengths between 10 and 25 years, from a region in South Australia. In terms of mean value, there is no evidence of a trend or change in the seasonal distribution of the monthly extreme rainfall. However, there is a strong evidence of an increase in variability of monthly extreme rainfall, estimated as a 58% increase in absolute value of deviation from the mean over a 25 year period. Rainfall records are often only available as a daily accumulation. A formula for the ratio of the monthly maxima at durations shorter than 24 h, down to 6 min, to the 24 h monthly maximum, in terms of: duration, month of the year, and a site specific adjustment is estimated. There is a clear seasonal variation in the ratios and there is evidence of a difference between rainfall stations.

  18. Estimation of fatigue and extreme load distributions from limited data with application to wind energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzwater, LeRoy M.

    2004-01-01

    An estimate of the distribution of fatigue ranges or extreme loads for wind turbines may be obtained by separating the problem into two uncoupled parts, (1) a turbine specific portion, independent of the site and (2) a site-specific description of environmental variables. We consider contextually appropriate probability models to describe the turbine specific response for extreme loads or fatigue. The site-specific portion is described by a joint probability distribution of a vector of environmental variables, which characterize the wind process at the hub-height of the wind turbine. Several approaches are considered for combining the two portions to obtain an estimate of the extreme load, e.g., 50-year loads or fatigue damage. We assess the efficacy of these models to obtain accurate estimates, including various levels of epistemic uncertainty, of the turbine response.

  19. Response Strength in Extreme Multiple Schedules

    PubMed Central

    McLean, Anthony P; Grace, Randolph C; Nevin, John A

    2012-01-01

    Four pigeons were trained in a series of two-component multiple schedules. Reinforcers were scheduled with random-interval schedules. The ratio of arranged reinforcer rates in the two components was varied over 4 log units, a much wider range than previously studied. When performance appeared stable, prefeeding tests were conducted to assess resistance to change. Contrary to the generalized matching law, logarithms of response ratios in the two components were not a linear function of log reinforcer ratios, implying a failure of parameter invariance. Over a 2 log unit range, the function appeared linear and indicated undermatching, but in conditions with more extreme reinforcer ratios, approximate matching was observed. A model suggested by McLean (1991), originally for local contrast, predicts these changes in sensitivity to reinforcer ratios somewhat better than models by Herrnstein (1970) and by Williams and Wixted (1986). Prefeeding tests of resistance to change were conducted at each reinforcer ratio, and relative resistance to change was also a nonlinear function of log reinforcer ratios, again contrary to conclusions from previous work. Instead, the function suggests that resistance to change in a component may be determined partly by the rate of reinforcement and partly by the ratio of reinforcers to responses. PMID:22287804

  20. Areal rainfall construction and estimation of extreme quantiles.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penot, David; Paquet, Emmanuel; Lang, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Areal rainfall estimation and extrapolation to extremes is a key issue for catchment flood study. It is a tricky problem which deals with spatial interpolation (to build an estimate at the catchment's scale based on few rain gauges only), and probabilistic extrapolation (for extreme values estimation). In this study, several methods to build an areal rainfall estimation are compared. The first method is the commonly used Thiessen polygons. A second way to build an areal rainfall relies on the SPAZM method [Gottardi, 2012], in which daily rain fields are reconstructed at a 1km2 resolution, with an interpolation scheme integrating the altitude of the pixel and the weather type of the day. These two methods are compared to the stochastic rain field simulator SAMPO [Leblois et Creutin, 2013], which is an adaptation of the turning band method allowing to generate over 50 years of realistic rain fields. Several questions are tackled in this study: In a Thiessen estimation, how many rain gauges should be selected ? Which weighting scheme should be used ? SPAZM is an interpolator designed to produce unbiased mean annual precipitation (MAP) at a catchment's scale. So if a Thiessen areal rainfall is scaled to fit the MAP given by SPAZM, how does it affect its extreme rainfall estimation ? If a virtual rain gauges network is extracted from the rain fields generated by SAMPO, how do behave the Thiessen and SPAZM areal rainfall estimations based on these point values ? At the end, some abatement functions are obtained, showing the influence of the catchment's area and the options chosen to build the areal rainfall estimations. References: F. Gottardi, C. Obled, J. Gailhard, and E. Paquet, Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns : Application over french mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432-433:154 - 167, 2012. ISSN 0022-1694. E. Leblois and J-D. Creutin, Space-time simulation of intermittent rainfall with prescribed

  1. Evaluation of extreme precipitation estimates from TRMM in Angola

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pombo, Sandra; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Proença

    2015-04-01

    In situ ground observation measurement of precipitation is difficult in vast and sparsely populated areas, with poor road networks. This paper examines the use of remote sensors installed in satellites and evaluates the accuracy of TRMM 3B42 annual maximum daily precipitation estimates in Angola, in West Africa, a region where ground monitoring networks are generally. TRMM 3B42 estimates of annual maximum daily precipitation are compared to ground observation data from 159 locations. As a direct comparison between the two datasets for a common specific period and sites is not possible, a statistical approach was adopted to test the hypothesis that the TRMM 3B42 estimates and the ground monitoring records exhibit similar statistical characteristics. The study shows that the annual maximum daily precipitation estimates obtained from TRMM 3B42 slightly underestimate the quantiles obtained from the in situ observations. The use of remote sensing products to estimate extreme precipitation values for engineering design purposes is however promising. A maximum daily precipitation map for a return period of 20 years was computed and in the future, as the length of the remote sensing data series increases, it may be possible to estimate annual maximum daily precipitation estimates exclusively from these datasets for larger return periods. The paper also presents maps of the PdT/PDT ratios, where PdT is the annual maximum precipitation for a duration d and a return period of T years, and PDT is the annual maximum daily precipitation for a return period of T years. In conjunction with these maps it is possible to estimate the maximum precipitation for durations between 3 h and 5 days.

  2. Estimating temporal changes in extreme rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaccorso, Brunella; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-hour annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that, despite L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves corresponding to the last decade (2000-2009) are usually less steep than the ones of the previous periods, rainfall quantile estimates have increased during the 2000s due to a large increase in regional average median, mainly in Western Sicily.

  3. Combining Empirical and Stochastic Models for Extreme Floods Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

    2013-12-01

    Hydrological models can be defined as physical, mathematical or empirical. The latter class uses mathematical equations independent of the physical processes involved in the hydrological system. The linear regression and Gradex (Gradient of Extreme values) are classic examples of empirical models. However, conventional empirical models are still used as a tool for hydrological analysis by probabilistic approaches. In many regions in the world, watersheds are not gauged. This is true even in developed countries where the gauging network has continued to decline as a result of the lack of human and financial resources. Indeed, the obvious lack of data in these watersheds makes it impossible to apply some basic empirical models for daily forecast. So we had to find a combination of rainfall-runoff models in which it would be possible to create our own data and use them to estimate the flow. The estimated design floods would be a good choice to illustrate the difficulties facing the hydrologist for the construction of a standard empirical model in basins where hydrological information is rare. The construction of the climate-hydrological model, which is based on frequency analysis, was established to estimate the design flood in the Anseghmir catchments, Morocco. The choice of using this complex model returns to its ability to be applied in watersheds where hydrological information is not sufficient. It was found that this method is a powerful tool for estimating the design flood of the watershed and also other hydrological elements (runoff, volumes of water...).The hydrographic characteristics and climatic parameters were used to estimate the runoff, water volumes and design flood for different return periods.

  4. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Population without Power during Extreme Weather Events

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Fernandez, Steven J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2010-01-01

    One challenge in emergency preparedness and response during extreme weather events such as hurricanes and ice storms is estimating how many people may be without power and how long they could be without power. In this presentation, we will discuss a method for estimating the spatial distribution of people without power during extreme weather events. The method is based on a directional nearest-neighbor approach in which grid cells representing substation locations acquire other grid cells representing customers/population demand with respect to the capacity of each substation. We also present a method for estimating restoration time in case of an outage. The application of these methods during the 2008 hurricane season will also be discussed.

  5. Hematocrit estimation using online sequential extreme learning machine.

    PubMed

    Huynh, Hieu Trung; Won, Yonggwan; Kim, Jinsul

    2015-01-01

    Hematocrit is a blood test that is defined as the volume percentage of red blood cells in the whole blood. It is one of the important indicators for clinical decision making and the most effective factor in glucose measurement using handheld devices. In this paper, a method for hematocrit estimation that is based upon the transduced current curve and the neural network is presented. The salient points of this method are that (1) the neural network is trained by the online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) in which the devices can be still trained with new samples during the using process and (2) the extended features are used to reduce the number of current points which can save the battery power of devices and speed up the measurement process. PMID:26405979

  6. Estimation of extreme marine hydrodynamic variables in western Laizhou Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Yanchen; Qiao, Lulu; Xu, Jishang; Zhou, Chunyan; Ding, Dong; Bi, Wei

    2015-06-01

    Laizhou Bay and its adjacent waters are of great importance to China's marine oil and gas development. It is therefore crucial to estimate return-period values of marine environmental variables in this region to ensure the safety and success of maritime engineering and maritime exploration. In this study, we used numerical simulations to estimate extreme wave height, sea current velocity and sea-level height in western Laizhou Bay. The results show that the sea-level rise starts at the mouth of the bay, increases toward west/southwest, and reaches its maximum in the deepest basin of the bay. The 100-year return-period values of sea level rise can reach 3.4-4.0 m in the western bay. The elevation of the western part of the Qingdong Oil Field would remain above the sea surface during extreme low sea level, while the rest of the oil field would be 1.6-2.4 m below the sea surface. The return-period value of wave height is strongly affected by water depth; in fact, its spatial distribution is similar to the isobath's. The 100-year return-period values of effective wave height can be 6 m or higher in the central bay and be more than 1 m in the shallow water near shore. The 100-year return-period values of current velocity is about 1.2-1.8 m s-1 in the Qingdong Oil Field. These results provide scientific basis for ensuring construction safety and reducing construction cost.

  7. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  8. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  9. Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Charlene N.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Vose, James M.

    2016-04-01

    Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the impact of the interaction between forest management and precipitation. We use daily long-term data from paired watersheds that have undergone forest harvest or species conversion. We find that interactive effects of climate change, represented by changes in observed precipitation trends, and forest management regime, significantly alter expected streamflow most often during extreme events, ranging from a decrease of 59% to an increase of 40% in streamflow, depending upon management. Our results suggest that vegetation might be managed to compensate for hydrologic responses due to climate change to help mitigate effects of extreme changes in precipitation.

  10. Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, Rodney C.; Lang, Maik

    2015-07-30

    The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO2, GeO2, CeO2, TiO2, HfO2, SnO2, ZnO and ZrO2) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

  11. Mapping of Estimations and Prediction Intervals Using Extreme Learning Machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    Due to the large amount and complexity of data available nowadays in environmental sciences, we face the need to apply more robust methodology allowing analyses and understanding of the phenomena under study. One particular but very important aspect of this understanding is the reliability of generated prediction models. From the data collection to the prediction map, several sources of error can occur and affect the final result. Theses sources are mainly identified as uncertainty in data (data noise), and uncertainty in the model. Their combination leads to the so-called prediction interval. Quantifying these two categories of uncertainty allows a finer understanding of phenomena under study and a better assessment of the prediction accuracy. The present research deals with a methodology combining a machine learning algorithm (ELM - Extreme Learning Machine) with a bootstrap-based procedure. Developed by G.-B. Huang et al. (2006), ELM is an artificial neural network following the structure of a multilayer perceptron (MLP) with one single hidden layer. Compared to classical MLP, ELM has the ability to learn faster without loss of accuracy, and need only one hyper-parameter to be fitted (that is the number of nodes in the hidden layer). The key steps of the proposed method are as following: sample from the original data a variety of subsets using bootstrapping; from these subsets, train and validate ELM models; and compute residuals. Then, the same procedure is performed a second time with only the squared training residuals. Finally, taking into account the two modeling levels allows developing the mean prediction map, the model uncertainty variance, and the data noise variance. The proposed approach is illustrated using geospatial data. References Efron B., and Tibshirani R. 1986, Bootstrap Methods for Standard Errors, Confidence Intervals, and Other Measures of Statistical accuracy, Statistical Science, vol. 1: 54-75. Huang G.-B., Zhu Q.-Y., and Siew C.-K. 2006

  12. Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change.

    PubMed

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2014-08-28

    Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 °C, compared to -14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes. PMID:25164753

  13. Mitochondrial responses to extreme environments: insights from metabolomics.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Katie A; Griffin, Julian L; Murray, Andrew J; Edwards, Lindsay M

    2015-01-01

    Humans are capable of survival in a remarkable range of environments, including the extremes of temperature and altitude as well as zero gravity. Investigation into physiological function in response to such environmental stresses may help further our understanding of human (patho-) physiology both at a systems level and in certain disease states, making it a highly relevant field of study. This review focuses on the application of metabolomics in assessing acclimatisation to these states, particularly the insights this approach can provide into mitochondrial function. It includes an overview of metabolomics and the associated analytical tools and also suggests future avenues of research. PMID:25949809

  14. Challenges in Estimating and Predicting Extreme Weather and Climate statistics (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.

    2010-12-01

    A reliable estimation of extreme anomaly statistics from observational records or climate model simulations of limited length is a prerequisite for estimating any changes in those statistics under climate change. Extreme anomalies and events are by definition rare, which makes direct non-parametric estimation of their statistics prone to sampling errors, and some form of statistical modeling a necessity. In this regard it is not obvious whether the shifts in the extremes can be more reliably derived indirectly from the changes in the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of a climate variable or through the direct statistical modeling of the extremes using, say, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) or Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions given by Extreme Value theory. The former approach is physically attractive, but assumes that the distribution of the climate variable is characterized completely by its first two moments. The chief virtue of using the GEV and GP distributions is their quasi-universal applicability associated with limiting behavior. This strength is, however, offset by concerns about the extent to which the limiting behavior obtains in the problem at hand, and the practical weakness of making use of only the extreme, and not all, values in a data sample to estimate the parameters of those distributions. We are developing a new and complementary approach to this problem using the first four statistical moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis) of the probability density functions (PDFs) of a climate variable to estimate the entire PDF of that variable using the Stochastically Generated Skewed (SGS) probability distribution theory of Sardeshmukh and Sura (2009), whose validity has been demonstrated in both atmospheric and oceanic contexts (Sardeshmukh and Sura 2009, Sura and Sardeshmukh 2008). An important virtue of this approach is that it uses a physically based model to derive the entire PDF and not just its tails, and

  15. Reduced bias and threshold choice in the extremal index estimation through resampling techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomes, Dora Prata; Neves, Manuela

    2013-10-01

    In Extreme Value Analysis there are a few parameters of particular interest among which we refer to the extremal index, a measure of extreme events clustering. It is of great interest for initial dependent samples, the common situation in many practical situations. Most semi-parametric estimators of this parameter show the same behavior: nice asymptotic properties but a high variance for small values of k, the number of upper order statistics used in the estimation and a high bias for large values of k. The Mean Square Error, a measure that encompasses bias and variance, usually shows a very sharp plot, needing an adequate choice of k. Using classical extremal index estimators considered in the literature, the emphasis is now given to derive reduced bias estimators with more stable paths, obtained through resampling techniques. An adaptive algorithm for estimating the level k for obtaining a reliable estimate of the extremal index is used. This algorithm has shown good results, but some improvements are still required. A simulation study will illustrate the properties of the estimators and the performance of the adaptive algorithm proposed.

  16. Estimation of friction velocity from the wind-wave spectrum at extremely high wind speeds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takagaki, N.; Komori, S.; Suzuki, N.

    2016-05-01

    The equilibrium range of wind-waves at normal and extremely high wind speeds was investigated experimentally using a high-speed wind-wave tank together with field measurements at normal wind speeds. Water level fluctuations at normal and extremely high wind speeds were measured with resistance-type wave gauges, and the wind-wave spectrum and significant phase velocity were calculated. The equilibrium range constant was estimated from the wind-wave spectrum and showed the strong relationship with inverse wave age at normal and extremely high wind speeds. Using the strong relation between the equilibrium range constant and inverse wave age, a new method for estimating the wind speed at 10-m height (U 10) and friction velocity (u*) was proposed. The results suggest that U 10 and u* can be estimated from wave measurements alone at extremely high wind speeds in oceans under tropical cyclones.

  17. Response Styles in Rating Scales: Simultaneous Modeling of Content-Related Effects and the Tendency to Middle or Extreme Categories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tutz, Gerhard; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    Heterogeneity in response styles can affect the conclusions drawn from rating scale data. In particular, biased estimates can be expected if one ignores a tendency to middle categories or to extreme categories. An adjacent categories model is proposed that simultaneously models the content-related effects and the heterogeneity in response styles.…

  18. Exploring the Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Extreme Weather Events using Multiple Land Surface Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, L.; Schlosser, C. A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Felzer, B. S.; Monier, E.; Paw U, K.

    2012-12-01

    This study investigates the complex terrestrial ecosystems response to extreme weather events using three different land surface models. Previous studies have showed that extreme weather events can have serious and damaging impacts on human and natural systems and they are most evident on regional and local scales. Under climate change, extreme weather events are likely to increase in both magnitude and frequency, making realistic simulation of ecosystems response to extreme events more essential than ever in assessing the potential damaging impacts. Three different land surface models are used to explore the impacts of extreme events on regional to continental ecosystem responses. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) is a process-based ecosystem model that uses spatially referenced information on climate, elevation, soils, vegetation and water availability to make monthly estimates of vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes. The Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA) is a multi-layered land surface model based on eddy-covariance theory to calculate the biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon dioxide, water, and momentums. The Community Land Model (CLM) is a community-based model widely used in global-scale land data assimilation research. The study focuses on the complex interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere such as water cycle, carbon and nitrogen budgets, and environmental conditions. The model simulations and performances are evaluated using the biogeophysical and micrometeorological observation data from the AmeriFlux sites across the continental US. This study compares and evaluates the ability of different models and their key components to capture terrestrial response to extreme weather events.

  19. Quantifying the US Crop Yield in Response to Extreme Climatic Events from 1948 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The increasingly frequent and severe extreme climatic events (ECEs) under climate changes will negatively affect crop productivity and threat the global food security. Reliable forecast of crop yields response to those ECEs is a prerequisite for developing strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress of quantifying such responses with ecosystem models has been slow. In this study, we first review existing algorithms of yields response to ECEs among major crops (i.e., Corn, Wheat and Soybean) for the United States from a set of process-based crop models. These algorithms are aggregated into four categories of ECEs: drought, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, and frost. Species-specific ECEs thresholds as tipping point of crop yield response curve are examined. Four constraint scalar functions derived for each category of ECEs are then added to an agricultural ecosystem model, CLM-AG, respectively. The revised model is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 to estimate the US major crop yields, and then evaluated with county-level yield statistics from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). We also include MODIS NPP product as a reference for the period 2001-2013. Our study will help to identify gaps in capturing yield response to ECEs with contemporary crop models, and provide a guide on developing the new generation of crop models to account for the effects of more future extreme climate events.

  20. Diatom response to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, W.C.; Sulik, G.L. )

    1992-06-01

    Reports that extremely low-frequency magnetic fields can interfere with normal biological cell function continue to stimulate experimental activity as well as investigations into the possible mechanism of the interaction. The cyclotron resonance' model of Liboff has been tested by Smith et al. using as the biological test system the diatom Amphora coffeiformis. They report enhanced motility of the diatom in response to a low-frequency electromagnetic field tuned to the cyclotron resonance condition for calcium ions. We report here an attempt to reproduce their results. Following their protocol diatoms were seeded onto agar plates containing varying amounts of calcium and exposed to colinear DC and AC magnetic fields tuned to the cyclotron resonant condition for frequencies of 16, 30, and 60 Hz. The fractional motility was compared with that of control plates seeded at the same time from the same culture. We find no evidence of a cyclotron resonance effect.

  1. Flood Frequency Estimates and Documented and Potential Extreme Peak Discharges in Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

    2001-01-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the

  2. Input estimation from measured structural response

    SciTech Connect

    Harvey, Dustin; Cross, Elizabeth; Silva, Ramon A; Farrar, Charles R; Bement, Matt

    2009-01-01

    This report will focus on the estimation of unmeasured dynamic inputs to a structure given a numerical model of the structure and measured response acquired at discrete locations. While the estimation of inputs has not received as much attention historically as state estimation, there are many applications where an improved understanding of the immeasurable input to a structure is vital (e.g. validating temporally varying and spatially-varying load models for large structures such as buildings and ships). In this paper, the introduction contains a brief summary of previous input estimation studies. Next, an adjoint-based optimization method is used to estimate dynamic inputs to two experimental structures. The technique is evaluated in simulation and with experimental data both on a cantilever beam and on a three-story frame structure. The performance and limitations of the adjoint-based input estimation technique are discussed.

  3. Estimating Single-Trial Responses in EEG

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. S.; Knuth, K. H.; Truccolo, W. A.; Mehta, A. D.; Fu, K. G.; Johnston, T. A.; Ding, M.; Bressler, S. L.; Schroeder, C. E.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Accurate characterization of single-trial field potential responses is critical from a number of perspectives. For example, it allows differentiation of an evoked response from ongoing EEG. We previously developed the multiple component Event Related Potential (mcERP) algorithm to improve resolution of the single-trial evoked response. The mcERP model states that multiple components, each specified by a stereotypic waveform varying in latency and amplitude from trial to trial, comprise the evoked response. Application of the mcERP algorithm to simulated data with three independent, synthetic components has shown that the model is capable of separating these components and estimating their variability. Application of the model to single trial, visual evoked potentials recorded simultaneously from all V1 laminae in an awake, fixating macaque yielded local and far-field components. Certain local components estimated by the model were distributed in both granular and supragranular laminae. This suggests a linear coupling between the responses of thalamo-recipient neuronal ensembles and subsequent responses of supragranular neuronal ensembles, as predicted by the feedforward anatomy of V1. Our results indicate that the mcERP algorithm provides a valid estimation of single-trial responses. This will enable analyses that depend on trial-to-trial variations and those that require separation of the evoked response from background EEG rhythms

  4. Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brakenridge, G. Robert

    1997-01-01

    . Karen Prestegaard at the University of Maryland (geomorphological responses to the extreme 1993 flood along the Raccoon drainage in central Iowa), and with Mr Tim Scrom of the Albany National Weather Service River Forecast Center (initial planning for the use of Radarsat and ERS-2 for flood warning). The work thus initiated with this proposal is continuing.

  5. Statistical downscaling with generalized Pareto distribution (Study case: Extreme rainfall estimation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinanti, Shynde Limar; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

    2016-02-01

    Indonesia has tropical climate with small variation of temperature but quite large variation of rainfall. So the rainfall which is an essential climate element related to climate change has to be observed. Climate change may increase the incidence of extreme rainfall that affects flooding in farmland. In order to anticipate the occurrence of extreme rainfall, the information of rainfall forecast is required. Statistical Downscaling (SD) is a technique to model the relationship between global scale data and local scale data. Global Circulation Model (GCM) output is global scale data and rainfall is local scale data. GCM has characteristic non-linear, high dimension, and multicolinierity. These problem can be overcome by principal component analysis (PCA). One of the primary methods for estimating extreme rainfall is generalize Pareto distribution (GPD) regression based on a threshold. The objective of this study is SD modeling based on GPD to predict extreme rainfall. The result show that GPD models can predict extreme rainfall well. Monthly rainfall prediction in January and December show a higher value than the actual data, but predictions follow actual data pettern well, especially during extreme rainfall. February has the highest rainfall that occurred in 2008 with a value of 439 mm/month. This value can be estimated either by prediction on quantile 0.95.

  6. Placing Bounds on Extreme Temperature Response of Maize to Improve Crop Model Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, C.; Babcock, B.; Peng, Y.; Gassman, P. W.; Campbell, T.

    2015-12-01

    We propose the development of community-based estimates for bounds on maize sensitivity to extreme temperature. We use model-based, observation-driven soil moisture climatology in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on high temperature sensitivity through its dependence on available water. For the portion of the region with relatively long growing season, yield reduction per degree-C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per degree-C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. High temperature sensitivity is indeterminate where extreme temperature yield effect does not yet exceed excessive water yield effect. We suggest new soil moisture climatology from reanalysis datasets could be used to develop community-based estimates of high temperature sensitivity that would significantly improve the accuracy of maize temperature sensitivity bounds, their regional variability, and their importance relative to other weather yield shocks. A community-based estimate would substantially improve evaluation of crop system simulation models and provide baseline information for evaluation of adaptation options. For instance, since process models are needed for evaluation of crop system adaptation response under climate projections, a community-developed estimate would provide a clear target for process model evaluation. Furthermore, the range of extreme temperature sensitivity from empirical models would provide a lower bound on variability that could be achieved from process models. If the process models achieved this bound, it would mean the uncertainty among their simulations would be primarily from observational limitations than differences in model response. While we demonstrate the potential in the context of maize, the concept could be implemented within any crop production system.

  7. Placing bounds on extreme temperature response of maize

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Peng, Yixing; Gassman, Philip W.; Campbell, Todd D.

    2015-12-01

    Plant water availability is a key factor that determines maize yield response to excess heat. Lack of available data has limited researchers’ ability to estimate this relationship at regional and global scales. Using a new soil moisture data set developed by running a crop growth simulator over historical data we demonstrate how current estimates of maize yield sensitivity to high temperature are misleading. We develop an empirical model relating observed yields to climate variables and soil moisture in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on yield sensitivity to high temperatures. For the portion of the region with a relatively long growing season, yield reduction per °C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per °C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. These results indicate the importance of using both water availability and temperature to model crop yield response to explain future climate change on crop yields.

  8. Radiation response mechanisms of the extremely radioresistant bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yasuhiko; Narumi, Issay; Satoh, Katsuya; Funayama, Tomoo; Kikuchi, Masahiro; Kitayama, Shigeru; Watanabe, Hiroshi

    2004-11-01

    Effect of microgravity on recovery of bacterial cells from radiation damage was examined in IML-2, S/MM-4 and S/MM-9 experiments using the extremely radioresistant bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans. The cells were irradiated with gamma rays before the space flight and incubated on board the Space Shuttle. The survival of the wild type cells incubated in space increased compared with the ground controls, suggesting that the recovery of this bacterium from radiation damage was enhanced under the space environment. No difference was observed between the survivals of radiosensitive mutant rec30 cells incubated in space and on the ground. The amount of DNA-repair related RecA protein induced under microgravity was similar to those of ground controls, however, induction of PprA protein, product of a unique radiation-inducible gene (designated pprA) responsible for loss of radiation resistance in repair-deficient mutant, KH311, was enhanced under microgravity compared with ground controls. Recent investigation in vitro showed that PprA preferentially bound to double-stranded DNA carrying strand breaks, inhibited Escherichia coli exonuclease III activity, and stimulated the DNA end-joining reaction catalyzed by DNA ligases. These results suggest that D. radiodurans has a radiation-induced non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) repair mechanism in which PprA plays a critical role. PMID:15858357

  9. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  10. Response and Recovery of Streams From an Extreme Flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantack, K. M.; Renshaw, C. E.; Magilligan, F. J.; Dethier, E.

    2015-12-01

    In temperate regions, channels are expected to recover from intense floods in a matter of months to years, but quantitative empirical support for this idea remains limited. Moreover, existing literature fails to address the spatial variability of the recovery process. Using an emerging technology, we investigate the immediate response to and progressive recovery of channels in the Northeastern United States from an extreme flood. We seek to determine what factors, including the nature and extent of the immediate response of the channel to the flood and post-flood availability of sediment, contribute to the spatial variability of the rate of recovery. Taking advantage of the 2011 flooding from Tropical Storm Irene, for which pre- and post-flood aerial lidar exist, along with a third set of terrestrial lidar collected in 2015, we assess channel response and recovery with multi-temporal lidar comparison. This method, with kilometers of continuous data, allows for analysis beyond traditional cross-section and reach-scale studies. Results indicate that landscape-scale factors, such as valley morphology and gradients in unit stream power, are controls on channel response to the flood, producing spatially variable impacts. Along a 16.4-km section (drainage area = 82 km2) of the Deerfield River in Vermont, over 148,000 m3 or erosion occurred during the flood. The spatial variation of impacts was correlated (R2= 0.476) with the ratio of channel width to valley width. We expect the recovery process will similarly exhibit spatial variation in rate and magnitude, possibly being governed by gradients in unit stream power and sediment availability. We test the idea that channel widening during the flood reduces post-flood unit stream power, creating a pathway for deposition and recovery to pre-flood width. Flood-widened reaches downstream of point-sources of sediment, such as landslides, will recover more quickly than those without consistent sediment supply. Results of this

  11. Estimating return periods for daily precipitation extreme events over the Brazilian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eliane Barbosa; Lucio, Paulo Sérgio; Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

    2015-08-01

    This paper aims to model the occurrence of daily precipitation extreme events and to estimate the return period of these events through the extreme value theory (generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)). The GEV and GPD were applied in precipitation series of homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot and by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. The Q-Q plot suggests that the probability distributions of the studied series are appropriated, and these results were confirmed by the KS test, which demonstrates that the tested distributions have a good fit in all sub-regions of Amazon, thus adequate to study the daily precipitation extreme event. For all return levels studied, more intense precipitation extremes is expected to occur within the South sub-regions and the coastal area of the Brazilian Amazon. The results possibly will have some practical application in local extreme weather forecast.

  12. Development of a censored modelling approach for stochastic estimation of rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Bernardara, Pietro

    2016-04-01

    With the COP21 drawing to a close in December 2015, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank which swept across the UK and Ireland causing widespread flooding and devastation have acted as a timely reminder of the need for reliable estimation of rainfall extremes in a changing climate. The frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes are predicted to increase in the UK under anthropogenic climate change, and it is notable that the UK's 24 hour rainfall record of 316mm set in Seathwaite, Cumbria in 2009 was broken on the 5 December 2015 with 341mm by storm Desmond at Honister Pass also in Cumbria. Immediate analysis of the latter by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) on the 8 December 2015 estimated that this is approximately equivalent to a 1300 year return period event (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2015). Rainfall extremes are typically estimated using extreme value analysis and intensity duration frequency curves. This study investigates the potential for using stochastic rainfall simulation with mechanistic rectangular pulse models for estimation of extreme rainfall. These models have been used since the late 1980s to generate synthetic rainfall time-series at point locations for scenario analysis in hydrological studies and climate impact assessment at the catchment scale. Routinely they are calibrated to the full historical hyetograph and used for continuous simulation. However, their extremal performance is variable with a tendency to underestimate short duration (hourly and sub-hourly) rainfall extremes which are often associated with heavy convective rainfall in temporal climates such as the UK. Focussing on hourly and sub-hourly rainfall, a censored modelling approach is proposed in which rainfall below a low threshold is set to zero prior to model calibration. It is hypothesised that synthetic rainfall time-series are poor at estimating extremes because the majority of the training data are not representative of the climatic conditions which give rise to

  13. Robust estimate of dynamo thresholds in the von Kármán sodium experiment using the extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faranda, Davide; Bourgoin, Mickaël; Miralles, Sophie; Odier, Philippe; Pinton, Jean-François; Plihon, Nicolas; Daviaud, Francois; Dubrulle, Bérengère

    2014-08-01

    We apply a new threshold detection method based on the extreme value theory (EVT) to the von Kármán sodium (VKS) experiment data. The VKS experiment is a successful attempt to get a dynamo magnetic field in a laboratory liquid-metal experiment. We first show that the dynamo threshold is associated with a change of the probability density function of the extreme values of the magnetic field. This method does not require the measurement of response functions from applied external perturbations and thus provides a simple threshold estimate. We apply our method to different configurations in the VKS experiment, showing that it yields a robust indication of the dynamo threshold as well as evidence of hysteretic behaviors. Moreover, for the experimental configurations in which a dynamo transition is not observed, the method provides a way to extrapolate an interval of possible threshold values.

  14. Progressive and biphasic cardiac responses during extreme mountain ultramarathon.

    PubMed

    Maufrais, Claire; Millet, Grégoire P; Schuster, Iris; Rupp, Thomas; Nottin, Stéphane

    2016-05-15

    Investigations on the cardiac function consequences of mountain ultramarathon (MUM) >100 h are lacking. The present study assessed the progressive cardiac responses during the world's most challenging MUM (Tor des Géants; Italy; 330 km; 24,000 m of cumulative elevation gain). Resting echocardiographic evaluation of morphology, function, and mechanics of left and right ventricle (LV and RV) including speckle tracking echocardiography was conducted in 15 male participants (46 ± 13 yr) before (pre), during (mid; 148 km), and after (post) the race. Runners completed the race in 126 ± 15 h. From pre to post, the increase in stroke volume (SV) (103 ± 19 vs. 110 ± 23 vs. 116 ± 21 ml; P < 0.001 at pre, mid, and post) was concomitant to the increase in LV early filling (peak E; 72.9 ± 15.7 vs. 74.6 ± 13.1 vs. 82.1 ± 11.5 cm/s; P < 0.05). Left and right atrial end-diastolic areas, RV end-diastolic area, and LV end-diastolic volume were 12-19% higher at post compared with pre (P < 0.05). Resting heart rate and LV systolic strain rates demonstrated a biphasic adaptation with an increase from pre to mid (55 ± 8 vs. 72 ± 11 beats/min, P < 0.001) and a return to baseline values from mid to post (59 ± 8 beats/min). Significant correlations were found between pre-to-post percent changes in peak E and LV end-diastolic volume (r = 0.63, P < 0.05) or RV (r = 0.82, P < 0.001) or atrial end-diastolic areas (r = 0.83, P < 0.001). An extreme MUM induced a biphasic pattern of heart rate in parallel with specific cardiac responses characterized by a progressive increase in diastolic filling, biventricular volumes, and SV. The underlying mechanisms and their clinical implications remain challenging for the future. PMID:26921434

  15. Estimating the impact of extreme climatic events on riverine sediment transport: new tools and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajeunesse, E.; Delacourt, C.; Allemand, P.; Limare, A.; Dessert, C.; Ammann, J.; Grandjean, P.

    2010-12-01

    A series of recent works have underlined that the flux of material exported outside of a watershed is dramatically increased during extreme climatic events, such as storms, tropical cyclones and hurricanes [Dadson et al., 2003 and 2004; Hilton et al., 2008]. Indeed the exceptionally high rainfall rates reached during these events trigger runoff and landsliding which destabilize slopes and accumulate a significant amount of sediments in flooded rivers. This observation raises the question of the control that extreme climatic events might exert on the denudation rate and the morphology of watersheds. Addressing this questions requires to measure sediment transport in flooded rivers. However most conventional sediment monitoring technics rely on manned operated measurements which cannot be performed during extreme climatic events. Monitoring riverine sediment transport during extreme climatic events remains therefore a challenging issue because of the lack of instruments and methodologies adapted to such extreme conditions. In this paper, we present a new methodology aimed at estimating the impact of extreme events on sediment transport in rivers. Our approach relies on the development of two instruments. The first one is an in-situ optical instrument, based on a LISST-25X sensor, capable of measuring both the water level and the concentration of suspended matter in rivers with a time step going from one measurement every hour at low flow to one measurement every 2 minutes during a flood. The second instrument is a remote controlled drone helicopter used to acquire high resolution stereophotogrammetric images of river beds used to compute DEMs and to estimate how flash floods impact the granulometry and the morphology of the river. These two instruments were developed and tested during a 1.5 years field survey performed from june 2007 to january 2009 on the Capesterre river located on Basse-Terre island (Guadeloupe archipelago, Lesser Antilles Arc).

  16. A new hydrological model for estimating extreme floods in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Receanu, R. G.; Hertig, J.-A.; Fallot, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Protection against flooding is very important for a country like Switzerland with a varied topography and many rivers and lakes. Because of the potential danger caused by extreme precipitation, structural and functional safety of large dams must be guaranteed to withstand the passage of an extreme flood. We introduce a new distributed hydrological model to calculate the PMF from a PMP which is spatially and temporally distributed using clouds. This model has permitted the estimation of extreme floods based on the distributed PMP and the taking into account of the specifics of alpine catchments, in particular the small size of the basins, the complex topography, the large lakes, snowmelt and glaciers. This is an important evolution compared to other models described in the literature, as they mainly use a uniform distribution of extreme precipitation all over the watershed. This paper presents the results of calculation with the developed rainfall-runoff model, taking into account measured rainfall and comparing results to observed flood events. This model includes three parts: surface runoff, underground flow and melting snow. Two Swiss watersheds are studied, for which rainfall data and flow rates are available for a considerably long period, including several episodes of heavy rainfall with high flow events. From these events, several simulations are performed to estimate the input model parameters such as soil roughness and average width of rivers in case of surface runoff. Following the same procedure, the parameters used in the underground flow simulation are also estimated indirectly, since direct underground flow and exfiltration measurements are difficult to obtain. A sensitivity analysis of the parameters is performed at the first step to define more precisely the boundary and initial conditions. The results for the two alpine basins, validated with the Nash equation, show a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation

  17. The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood

  18. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  19. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  20. On the possibilities of watershed parameterization for extreme flow estimation in ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohnová, S.; Karabová, B.; Hlavčová, K.

    2015-06-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Design flood estimates require a consideration of the hydrological, meteorological and physiographical situation, the legal requirements, and the available estimation techniques and methods. In the last decades changes in floods have been observed (Hall et al., 2014) which makes design flood estimation particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. A significant problem may arise in small catchments that are poorly gauged or when no recorded data exist. To obtain the design values in such cases, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites, including those in Slovakia. Since the method was derived on the basis of the specific characteristics of selected river basins in the United States, it may lead to significant uncertainties in other countries with different hydrological conditions. The aim of this study was to test the SCN-CN method and derive regional runoff curve numbers based on rainfall and discharge measurements for selected region in Slovakia. The results show that the classical CN method gives too high estimates of event runoff depths and is not valid in the study area. To avoid the overestimation of runoff caused by extreme rainfall events, the use of the empirically derived regional runoff curves was tested and finally proposed for practical application in engineering hydrology.

  1. In-flight estimation of gyro noise on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, M.; Crouse, P.; Harman, R.; Leid, Terry; Davis, W.; Underwood, S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper characterizes the low-frequency noise response of the Teledyne dry rotor inertial reference unit (DRIRU) gyroscopes on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The accuracy of spacecraft attitude estimation algorithms that use gyro data for propagating the spacecraft attitude is sensitive to gyro noise. EUVE gyro data were processed to validate a single-axis gyro noise model, which is used onboard various spacecraft. The paper addresses the potential impact of temperature effects on the gyro noise model and the overall impact on attitude determination accuracy. The power spectral density (PSD) of the gyro noise is estimated from UARS in-flight data by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The role of actuator dynamics on the PSD function is also discussed.

  2. Comparison of different techniques for streamflow-related extremes estimation in ungauged catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Giuseppe; Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina

    2013-04-01

    High and low flows and associated floods and droughts are natural phenomena caused by opposite meteorological extremes, affected by various, but similar catchment processes. Knowledge of peak flow and low flow discharges is fundamental in all water-related studies and infrastructures design. They are estimated starting from measurements of river discharges at stream gauging stations. The lack of observations at the site of interest as well as the inaccuracy of the measurements, however, bring inevitably to the necessity of developing predictive models. Regional analysis is the classical approach to estimate river flow characteristics at sites where little or no data exists. Once the homogeneous regions are defined, specific interpolation techniques are needed to regionalize the hydrological variables. Particularly, two different techniques are chosen here for estimating streamflow-related variables: the top-kriging and the multivariate analysis. Top-kriging is chosen because it is directly connected to the hydrographic network structure and geometric organization, while the Multivariate analysis, based on natural logarithms of seven geomorphoclimatic characteristics, is able to take into account the catchment properties. These methods are applied over the geographical space of Tuscany Region, in Central Italy. The results are validated using a cross-validation procedure, and are compared even with classical interpolation approaches (e.g. the ordinary kriging). With the aim to define the most suitable procedure for streamflow extremes estimation, the results are compared through different error measurement methods (mean square error, mean relative error, etc.).

  3. Asian monsoon extremes and humanity's response over the past millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckley, B. M.; Lieberman, V. B.; Zottoli, B.

    2012-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century has seen significant development in the production of paleo proxies for the Asian monsoon, exemplified by the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas that was comprised of more than 300 tree ring chronologies. Noteworthy among them is the Vietnamese cypress tree-ring record which reveals that the two worst droughts of the past 7 centuries, each more than a decade in length, coincided with the demise of the Khmer civilization at Angkor in the early 15th century CE. The 18th century was nearly as tumultuous a period across Southeast Asia, where several polities fell against a backdrop of epic decadal-scale droughts. At this time all of the region's charter states saw rapid realignment in the face of drought, famine, disease and a raft of related and unrelated social issues. Several other droughts, some more extreme but of lesser duration, punctuate the past millennium, but appear to have had little societal impact. Historical documentation is being used not only to provide corroborative evidence of tree-ring reconstructed climate extremes, but to attempt to understand the dynamics of the coupled human-natural systems involved, and to define what kinds of thresholds need to be reached before societies respond. This paleo perspective can assist our analyses of the role of climate extremes in the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate across the highly populated areas of Asia.

  4. Estimation of extreme daily precipitation: comparison between regional and geostatistical approaches.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellies, Matteo; Deidda, Roberto; Langousis, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    We study the extreme rainfall regime of the Island of Sardinia in Italy, based on annual maxima of daily precipitation. The statistical analysis is conducted using 229 daily rainfall records with at least 50 complete years of observations, collected at different sites by the Hydrological Survey of the Sardinia Region. Preliminary analysis, and the L-skewness and L-kurtosis diagrams, show that the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model performs best in describing daily rainfall extremes. The GEV distribution parameters are estimated using the method of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). To obtain extreme rainfall estimates at ungauged sites, while minimizing uncertainties due to sampling variability, a regional and a geostatistical approach are compared. The regional approach merges information from different gauged sites, within homogeneous regions, to obtain GEV parameter estimates at ungauged locations. The geostatistical approach infers the parameters of the GEV distribution model at locations where measurements are available, and then spatially interpolates them over the study region. In both approaches we use local rainfall means as index-rainfall. In the regional approach we define homogeneous regions by applying a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward's method, with L-moment ratios (i.e. L-CV and L-Skewness) as metrics. The analysis results in four contiguous regions, which satisfy the Hosking and Wallis (1997) homogeneity tests. The latter have been conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach based on a 4-parameter Kappa distribution model, fitted to each station cluster. Note that the 4-parameter Kappa model includes the GEV distribution as a sub-case, when the fourth parameter h is set to 0. In the geostatistical approach we apply kriging for uncertain data (KUD), which accounts for the error variance in local parameter estimation and, therefore, may serve as a useful tool for spatial interpolation of metrics affected by high uncertainty. In

  5. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  6. Sensitivity analysis of SCHADEX extreme flood estimations to observed hydro-meteorological variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigode, Pierre; Paquet, Emmanuel; Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joël; Garavaglia, Federico; Ribstein, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    Extreme floods estimation methods are developed since many years within the hydrological and statistical communities. More recently, approaches based on the statistical analysis of flood streamflow samples simulated by rainfall-runoff models which are forced by simulated rainfall spread in the scientific literature. These approaches, called stochastic simulation methods, are typically composed by a probabilistic rainfall model and a rainfall-runoff model. Each of these two models are usually calibrated over observed hydrometeorological series such as daily precipitation series for the probabilistic rainfall models or such as daily streamflow, precipitation and temperature series for the rainfall-runoff models. Since extreme flood observations are by definition particularly rare, the validation of the proposed extreme flood estimations is one of the main critical issues, whatever the method - statistical or physically-based - used. Moreover, the observed hydrometeorological series used for the calibration of the stochastic simulation methods may be subject to significant variability over time, due to global climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillations for example. If the estimation of total involved uncertainty is a difficult task, investigating to what extent the proposed extreme flood values are dependent on the calibration period is an interesting first step. The general aim of this study is to propose a methodology for performing a sensitivity analysis of extreme flood estimations to the variability of observed series used for the model calibrations in a stochastic simulation framework. The methodology proposed is based on the nonparametric bootstrap concept and consists to perform a set of block-bootstrap experiments, thus generating different sets of observed series sub-samples. The generated observed series sub-samples are then used for the calibration of the different models considered within the stochastic simulation method. The main

  7. Calibration period dependence of extreme flood estimations (with a model-based flood frequency method)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigode, P.; Bernardara, P.; Paquet, E.; Gailhard, J.; Garavaglia, F.; Ribstein, P.; Micovic, Z.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme floods estimation methods are developed since many years within the hydrological and statistical communities. More recently, approaches based on the statistical analysis of flood streamflow samples simulated by rainfall-runoff models which are forced by simulated rainfall spread in the scientific literature. These approaches, called stochastic simulation methods, are typically composed by a probabilistic rainfall model and a rainfall-runoff model. Each of these two models are calibrated over observed hydrometeorological series such as daily precipitation series for the probabilistic rainfall models or such as daily streamflow, precipitation and temperature series for the rainfall-runoff models. Since extreme flood observations are by definition particularly rare, the validation of the proposed extreme flood estimations is one of the main critical issues, whatever the method - statistical or physically-based - used. Moreover, the observed hydrometeorological series used for the calibration of the stochastic simulation methods may be subject to significant variability over time, due to global climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillations for example. If the estimation of total involved uncertainty is a difficult task, investigating to what extent the proposed extreme flood values are dependent on the calibration period is an interesting first step. The general aim of this study is to propose a methodology for performing a sensitivity analysis of extreme flood estimations to the variability of observed series used for the model calibrations in a stochastic simulation framework. The methodology proposed is based on the nonparametric bootstrap concept and consists to perform a set of block-bootstrap experiments, thus generating different sets of observed series sub-samples. The generated observed series sub-samples are then used for the calibration of the different models considered within the stochastic simulation method. The main originality of

  8. A comparison of acromion marker cluster calibration methods for estimating scapular kinematics during upper extremity ergometry.

    PubMed

    Richardson, R Tyler; Nicholson, Kristen F; Rapp, Elizabeth A; Johnston, Therese E; Richards, James G

    2016-05-01

    Accurate measurement of joint kinematics is required to understand the musculoskeletal effects of a therapeutic intervention such as upper extremity (UE) ergometry. Traditional surface-based motion capture is effective for quantifying humerothoracic motion, but scapular kinematics are challenging to obtain. Methods for estimating scapular kinematics include the widely-reported acromion marker cluster (AMC) which utilizes a static calibration between the scapula and the AMC to estimate the orientation of the scapula during motion. Previous literature demonstrates that including additional calibration positions throughout the motion improves AMC accuracy for single plane motions; however this approach has not been assessed for the non-planar shoulder complex motion occurring during UE ergometry. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of single, dual, and multiple AMC calibration methods during UE ergometry. The orientations of the UE segments of 13 healthy subjects were recorded with motion capture. Scapular landmarks were palpated at eight evenly-spaced static positions around the 360° cycle. The single AMC method utilized one static calibration position to estimate scapular kinematics for the entire cycle, while the dual and multiple AMC methods used two and four static calibration positions, respectively. Scapulothoracic angles estimated by the three AMC methods were compared with scapulothoracic angles determined by palpation. The multiple AMC method produced the smallest RMS errors and was not significantly different from palpation about any axis. We recommend the multiple AMC method as a practical and accurate way to estimate scapular kinematics during UE ergometry. PMID:26976228

  9. Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter A.; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2015-09-01

    Regional warming due to anthropogenic influence on the climate is expected to increase the frequency of very warm years and seasons. The growing research area of extreme event attribution has provided pertinent scientific evidence for a number of such warm events for which the forced climate response rises above internal climatic variability. Although the demand for attribution assessments is higher shortly after an event occurs, most scientific studies become available several months later. A formal attribution methodology is employed here to pre-compute the changing odds of very warm years and seasons in regions across the world. Events are defined based on the exceedence of temperature thresholds and their changing odds are measured over a range of pre-specified thresholds, which means assessments can be made as soon as a new event happens. Optimal fingerprinting provides observationally constrained estimates of the global temperature response to external forcings from which regional information is extracted. This information is combined with estimates of internal variability to construct temperature distributions with and without the effect of anthropogenic influence. The likelihood of an event is computed for each distribution and the change in the odds estimated. Analyses are conducted with seven climate models to explore the model dependency of the results. Apart from colder regions and seasons, characterised by greater internal climate variability, the odds of warm events are found to have significantly increased and temperatures above the threshold of 1-in-10 year events during 1961-1990 have become at least twice as likely to occur.

  10. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  11. Extreme ultraviolet response of a Tektronix 1024 x 1024 CCD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moses, Daniel J.; Hochedez, Jean-Francois E.; Howard, Russell A.; Au, Benjamin D.; Wang, Dennis; Blouke, Morley

    1992-08-01

    The goal of the detector development program for the Solar and Heliospheric Spacecraft (SOHO) EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) is an Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) CCD (Charge Coupled Device) camera. The Naval Research Lab (NRL) SOHO COD Group has developed a design for the EIT camera and is screening CCDs for flight application. Tektronix Inc. have fabricated 1024x1024 CCDs for the EIT program. As a part of the CCD screening effort the quantum efficiency (QE) of a prototype CCD has been measured in the NRL EUV laboratory over the wavelength range of 256 to 735 Angstroms. A simplified model has been applied to these QE measurements to illustrate the relevant physical processes that determine the performance of the detector.

  12. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  13. Application of extreme learning machine for estimation of wind speed distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Mohammadi, Kasra; Tong, Chong Wen; Petković, Dalibor; Porcu, Emilio; Mostafaeipour, Ali; Ch, Sudheer; Sedaghat, Ahmad

    2016-03-01

    The knowledge of the probabilistic wind speed distribution is of particular significance in reliable evaluation of the wind energy potential and effective adoption of site specific wind turbines. Among all proposed probability density functions, the two-parameter Weibull function has been extensively endorsed and utilized to model wind speeds and express wind speed distribution in various locations. In this research work, extreme learning machine (ELM) is employed to compute the shape ( k) and scale ( c) factors of Weibull distribution function. The developed ELM model is trained and tested based upon two widely successful methods used to estimate k and c parameters. The efficiency and accuracy of ELM is compared against support vector machine, artificial neural network and genetic programming for estimating the same Weibull parameters. The survey results reveal that applying ELM approach is eventuated in attaining further precision for estimation of both Weibull parameters compared to other methods evaluated. Mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute bias error and root mean square error for k are 8.4600 %, 0.1783 and 0.2371, while for c are 0.2143 %, 0.0118 and 0.0192 m/s, respectively. In conclusion, it is conclusively found that application of ELM is particularly promising as an alternative method to estimate Weibull k and c factors.

  14. Sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to rainfall-runoff modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Garçon, R.

    2012-04-01

    EDF (Électricité de France) design floods of dam spillways are now computed using a probabilistic method named SCHADEX (Climatic-hydrological simulation of extreme foods (Paquet et al., 2006, Garavaglia et al., 2009, 2010). This method aims at estimating extreme flood quantiles by the combination of a weather pattern based rainfall probabilistic model and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Extreme floods quantiles are estimated through a runoff generation process that combines a stochastic generation of rainfall events and a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation. The aim of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to the rainfall-runoff model (structure, parameters) used in the simulation framework. To explore this topic we have used two rainfall-runoff models (i.e. MORDOR model (Garçon et al., 1996) and GR4J model (Andreassian et al., 2006)) with four different objective functions (based on Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiencies) and a classical split-sample scheme. This testing strategy has been applied to calibrate models on a set of 30 French watersheds at different time-steps (mainly daily and 4 to 12 hours). When calibrated, models were used within the SCHADEX method and flood quantiles were evaluated at different return levels in interpolation and extrapolation (10, 100, 1000 years return-period). The main result of this comparative study is that extreme flood quantile estimations are more sensitive to (i) the objective function used and (ii) the time series length and period used for model calibration then (iii) the rainfall-runoff structure. Within this comparative study, the mean variability on a 1000 years return-period is up to 20%. Another interesting result is that, for a same objective function and time series period, the influence of the rainfall-runoff model is relatively moderated in extrapolation domain because the two rainfall-runoff models converged towards their asymptotic behaviours, but

  15. Extreme Thermal Noxious Stimuli Induce Pain Responses in Zebrafish Larvae

    PubMed Central

    Malafoglia, Valentina; Colasanti, Marco; Raffaeli, William; Balciunas, Darius; Giordano, Antonio; Bellipanni, Gianfranco

    2014-01-01

    Exposing tissues to extreme high or low temperature leads to burns. Burned animals sustain several types of damage, from the disruption of the tissue to degeneration of axons projecting through muscle and skin. Such damage causes pain due to both inflammation and axonal degeneration (neuropathic-like pain). Thus, the approach to cure and alleviate the symptoms of burns must be twofold: rebuilding the tissue that has been destroyed and alleviating the pain derived from the burns. While tissue regeneration techniques have been developed, less is known on the treatment of the induced pain. Thus, appropriate animal models are necessary for the development of the best treatment for pain induced in burned tissues. We have developed a methodology in the zebrafish aimed to produce a new animal model for the study of pain induced by burns. Here we show that two events linked to the onset of burn-induced inflammation and neuropathic-like pain in mammals, degeneration of axons innervating the affected tissues and over-expression of specific genes in sensory tissues, are conserved from zebrafish to mammals. PMID:23929528

  16. Extreme thermal noxious stimuli induce pain responses in zebrafish larvae.

    PubMed

    Malafoglia, Valentina; Colasanti, Marco; Raffaeli, William; Balciunas, Darius; Giordano, Antonio; Bellipanni, Gianfranco

    2014-03-01

    Exposing tissues to extreme high or low temperature leads to burns. Burned animals sustain several types of damage, from the disruption of the tissue to degeneration of axons projecting through muscle and skin. Such damage causes pain due to both inflammation and axonal degeneration (neuropathic-like pain). Thus, the approach to cure and alleviate the symptoms of burns must be twofold: rebuilding the tissue that has been destroyed and alleviating the pain derived from the burns. While tissue regeneration techniques have been developed, less is known on the treatment of the induced pain. Thus, appropriate animal models are necessary for the development of the best treatment for pain induced in burned tissues. We have developed a methodology in the zebrafish aimed to produce a new animal model for the study of pain induced by burns. Here, we show that two events linked to the onset of burn-induced inflammation and neuropathic-like pain in mammals, degeneration of axons innervating the affected tissues and over-expression of specific genes in sensory tissues, are conserved from zebrafish to mammals. PMID:23929528

  17. Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. PMID:26009315

  18. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  19. Estimates for production of radioisotopes of medical interest at Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Wen; Bobeica, Mariana; Gheorghe, Ioana; Filipescu, Dan M.; Niculae, Dana; Balabanski, Dimiter L.

    2016-01-01

    We report Monte Carlo simulations of the production of radioisotopes of medical interest through photoneutron reactions using the high-brilliance γ-beam of the Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics (ELI-NP) facility. The specific activity for three benchmark radioisotopes, 99Mo/99Tc, 225Ra/225Ac and 186Re, was obtained as a function of target geometry, irradiation time and γ-beam energy. Optimized conditions for the generation of these radioisotopes of medical interest with the ELI-NP γ-beams were discussed. We estimated that a saturation specific activity of the order of 1-2 mCi/g can be achieved for thin targets with about one gram of mass considering a γ-beam flux of 10^{11} photons/s. Based on these results, we suggest that the ELI-NP facility can provide a unique possibility for the production of radioisotopes in sufficient quantities for nuclear medicine research.

  20. Spall Response of Tantalum at Extreme Strain-Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahn, Eric; Germann, Tim; Meyers, Marc

    Strain-rate and microstructure play a significant role in the ultimate mechanical response of materials. Using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we characterize the ductile tensile failure of single and nanocrystalline tantalum over multiple orders of magnitude of strain-rate. This comparison is extended to over nine orders of magnitude including experimental results from resent laser shock campaigns. Spall strength primarily follows a power law dependence with strain-rate over this extensive range. In all cases, voids nucleate heterogeneously at pre-existing defects. Predictions based on traditional theory suggest that, as strain-rate increases, tensile strength should increase. Alternatively, as grain size decreases, tensile strength may decrease due to an increased propensity to fail at a growing volume fraction of grain boundaries. Strain-rate and grain size dictate void nucleation sites by changing the type and density of available defects: vacancies, dislocations, twins, and grain boundaries.

  1. The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paquet, Emmanuel; Garavaglia, Federico; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joël

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents the SCHADEX probabilistic method for extreme flood estimation, developed and applied since 2006 at Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: a continuous hydrological simulation provides an exhaustive description of the possible hydrological states of the catchment, while floods are generated on an event basis. The method has been built around two models: the Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern (MEWP) distribution for rainfall probability estimation, and the MORDOR hydrological model. The simulation process allows the production of an estimated distribution of flood volumes at the study’s time step, as well as a distribution of flood peaks based on a peak-to-volume ratio computed from observed hydrographs of significant floods. A wide range of rainy events are simulated on each hydrological state, generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards. Consequently, SCHADEX stands clearly apart from the “N-years flood is generated by a N-years rainfall” paradigm, as a great diversity of hydrological scenarios can generate a flood of a given return period, with many variables taken into account. Since its development, SCHADEX has been widely applied in France for industrial studies, to catchments from several to several thousand square kilometres. This has allowed the testing and improvement of the method. In this paper, the basic concepts and hypothesis of the method are given in detail and illustrated throughout with the example of the River Tarn at Millau (2170 km2, South of France). The different steps of the method are successively exposed, up to the estimated distribution of flood daily discharges and flood peaks and their comparison with observed values. Lastly, some methodological perspectives to enhance the method are presented.

  2. Top-kriging interpolation for extremes discharge estimation in ungauged rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caporali, E.; Rossi, G.; Chiarello, V.

    2013-12-01

    Knowledge of peak flow and low flow discharges and associated floods and droughts is fundamental in hydrology and related sciences. Streamflow characteristics are usually estimated starting from measurements of river discharges at stream gauging stations. The problem of estimating streamflow-related variables at locations where no measurements are available is essential in environmental and water engineering practices. Regional analysis is a classical approach to estimate river flow characteristics at sites where little or no data exists. Specific techniques are needed to regionalize the hydrological variables over the considered area. Top-kriging, or topological kriging, is a kriging interpolation procedure that takes into account the geometric organization and structure of hydrographic network, the catchment area and the nested nature of catchments. The continuous processes in space defined for the point variables are represented by a variogram. The channel network structure and the proximity between upstream and downstream catchments are represented by the drainage area as well as the relative positions of the neighbouring catchments. Top-kriging is applied here over the geographical space of Tuscany Region, in Central Italy. The obtained results are compared with classical interpolation techniques (IDW and Ordinary Kriging) and with a Multivariate analysis, based on natural logarithms of seven geomorphoclimatic characteristics. Multivariate statistical techniques such as principal components analysis (PCA) are implemented to reduce the high-dimensionality of catchments descriptors. The results are validated using a cross-validation method. With the aim to define the most suitable procedure for extremes discharge estimation in nested and not nested catchments, the results are compared through different error measurement methods.

  3. Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Erich; Sedlacek, Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Knutti, Reto

    2015-04-01

    Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over mid-latitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective. Reference: Fischer, E.M., J. Sedláček, E. Hawkins and R. Knutti, 2014: Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2014GL062018.

  4. A Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling approach to selection of estimation techniques for fitting extreme floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duckstein, L.; Bobée, B.; Ashkar, F.

    1991-09-01

    The problem of fitting a probability distribution, here log-Pearson Type III distribution, to extreme floods is considered from the point of view of two numerical and three non-numerical criteria. The six techniques of fitting considered include classical techniques (maximum likelihood, moments of logarithms of flows) and new methods such as mixed moments and the generalized method of moments developed by two of the co-authors. The latter method consists of fitting the distribution using moments of different order, in particular the SAM method (Sundry Averages Method) uses the moments of order 0 (geometric mean), 1 (arithmetic mean), -1 (harmonic mean) and leads to a smaller variance of the parameters. The criteria used to select the method of parameter estimation are: - the two statistical criteria of mean square error and bias; - the two computational criteria of program availability and ease of use; - the user-related criterion of acceptability. These criteria are transformed into value functions or fuzzy set membership functions and then three Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling (MCDM) techniques, namely, composite programming, ELECTRE, and MCQA, are applied to rank the estimation techniques.

  5. Individual estimation of exposures to extremely low frequency magnetic fields in jobs commonly held by women.

    PubMed

    Deadman, J E; Infante-Rivard, C

    2002-02-15

    Exposures to extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields have not been documented extensively in occupations besides the work environments of electric or telephone utilities. A 1980-1993 study of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in Québec, Canada, gathered detailed information about the occupations of 491 mothers of ALL cases and mothers of a similar number of healthy controls. This information was combined with published data on the intensities of ELF magnetic fields associated with sources or work environments to estimate ELF magnetic field exposures for a wide range of jobs commonly held by women. Estimated exposures for 61 job categories ranged from 0.03 to 0.68 microT; the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles were 0.135, 0.17, and 0.23 microT, respectively. By job category, the most highly exposed jobs (>0.23 microT) included bakery worker, cashier, cook and kitchen worker, electronics worker, residential and industrial sewing machine operator, and textile machine operator. By work environment, the most highly exposed job categories were electronics worker in an assembly plant (0.70 microT) and sewing machine operators in a textile factory (0.68 microT) and shoe factory (0.66 microT). These results provide new information on expected levels of exposure in a wide range of jobs commonly held by women. PMID:11836202

  6. Contrasting responses of terrestrial ecosystem production to hot temperature extreme regimes between grassland and forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Voigt, M.; Liu, H.

    2015-01-01

    During the past several decades, observational data have shown a faster increase in hot temperature extremes than the change in mean temperature. Increasingly high extreme temperatures are expected to affect terrestrial ecosystem function. The ecological impact of hot extremes on vegetation production, however, remains uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. In this study, we investigated the effects of hot temperature extremes on vegetation production by combining the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data set and in situ climatic records during the period 2000 to 2009 from 12 long-term experimental sites across biomes and climate. Our results show that higher mean annual maximum temperatures (Tmax) greatly reduced grassland production, and yet enhanced forest production after removing the effect of precipitation. The relative decrease in vegetation production was 16% for arid grassland and 7% for mesic grassland, and the increase was 5% for forest. We also observed a significantly positive relationship between interannual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and Tmax for the forest biome (R2 = 0.79, P < 0.001). This line of evidence suggests that hot temperature extremes lead to contrasting ecosystem-level responses of vegetation production between grassland and forest biomes. Given that many terrestrial ecosystem models use average daily temperature as input, predictions of ecosystem production should consider such contrasting responses to increasingly hot temperature extreme regimes associated with climate change.

  7. Contrasting responses of terrestrial ecosystem production to hot temperature extreme regimes between grassland and forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Voigt, M.; Liu, H.

    2014-04-01

    Observational data during the past several decades show faster increase of hot temperature extremes over land than changes in mean temperature. Towards more extreme temperature is expected to affect terrestrial ecosystem function. However, the ecological impacts of hot extremes on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. In this study, we investigated the effects of hot temperature extremes on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) by combining MODIS EVI dataset and in situ climatic records during 2000 to 2009 from 12 long-term experimental sites across biomes and climates. Our results showed that higher mean annual maximum temperatures (Tmax) greatly reduced grassland production, and yet enhanced forest production after removing the effects of precipitation. Relative decreases in ANPP were 16% for arid grassland and 7% for mesic grassland, and the increase were 5% for forest. We also observed a significant positive relationship between interannual ANPP and Tmax for forest biome (R2 = 0.79, P < 0.001). This line of evidence suggests that hot temperature extreme leads to contrasting ecosystem-level response of vegetation production to warming climate between grassland and forest. Given that many terrestrial ecosystem models use average daily temperature as input, predictions of ecosystem production should consider these contrasting responses to more hot temperature extreme regimes associated with climate change.

  8. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huttenlau, M.; Stötter, J.; Stiefelmeyer, H.

    2010-12-01

    Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and inventory

  9. Robust Estimation of Latent Ability in Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schuster, Christof; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2011-01-01

    Because of response disturbances such as guessing, cheating, or carelessness, item response models often can only approximate the "true" individual response probabilities. As a consequence, maximum-likelihood estimates of ability will be biased. Typically, the nature and extent to which response disturbances are present is unknown, and, therefore,…

  10. Emergency Response to and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events and Environmental Changes in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Li; Liao, Yongfeng; Yang, Linsheng; Li, Hairong; Ye, Bixiong; Wang, Wuyi

    2016-03-01

    China has achieved impressive rapid economic growth over the past 30 years but accompanied by significant extreme weather events and environmental changes caused by global change and overfast urbanization. Using the absolute hazards index (AHI), we assessed the spatial distribution patterns and related health effects of 4 major extreme natural disasters, including drought, floods (landslides, mudslides), hails, and typhoons from 2000 to 2011 at the provincial level in China. The results showed that (1) central and south China were the most affected by the 4 natural disasters, and north China suffered less; (2) the provinces with higher AHI suffered most from total death, missing people, collapse, and emergently relocated population; (3) the present health emergency response system to disasters in China mainly lacks a multidisciplinary approach. In the concluding section of this article, suggestions on preparedness and rapid response to extreme health events from environmental changes are proposed. PMID:25246501

  11. Estimations of the smoothing operator response characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yatskiv, Y. S.

    1974-01-01

    The mean response characteristic of the graphical smoothing method is discussed. The method is illustrated by analysis of latitude observations at Washington from 1915.9 to 1941.0. Spectral density, frequency distribution, and distribution functions are also discussed.

  12. Nonparametric Item Response Curve Estimation with Correction for Measurement Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Hongwen; Sinharay, Sandip

    2011-01-01

    Nonparametric or kernel regression estimation of item response curves (IRCs) is often used in item analysis in testing programs. These estimates are biased when the observed scores are used as the regressor because the observed scores are contaminated by measurement error. Accuracy of this estimation is a concern theoretically and operationally.…

  13. Consistency of Response Patterns in Different Estimation Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Terry Tin-Yau; Ho, Connie Suk-Han; Tang, Joey

    2016-01-01

    The current study aimed at addressing two issues concerning children's estimation performance: (1) to investigate whether the log-to-linear framework or the proportional judgment framework provided a better explanation of children's estimation patterns, and (2) to examine the consistency of response patterns in different estimation tasks. A sample…

  14. Cardiovascular Responses to Psychosocial Stress Reflect Motivation State in Adults Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight

    PubMed Central

    Pyhälä, Riikka; Hovi, Petteri; Räikkönen, Katri; Van Lieshout, Ryan J.; Boyle, Michael H.; Saigal, Saroj; Morrison, Katherine M.; Kajantie, Eero; Schmidt, Louis A.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Adults born extremely preterm appear to have more difficulty managing the stresses of early adulthood than their term-born peers. Objective. To examine the effects of being born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight < 1000 g) versus at full term on cardiovascular responses to stress. Method. Cardiovascular responses were elicited during administration of a widely used laboratory stressor, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Results. Term-born adults exhibited a larger decrease in total peripheral resistance and larger increase in cardiac output for TSST performance, reflecting greater resilience, than did ELBW adults. Furthermore, in ELBW participants but not controls, cardiovascular responses were correlated with anxiety, suggesting that their responses reflected feelings of stress. Conclusions. Skills-training and practice with relevant stressors may be necessary to increase the personal resources of ELBW participants for managing stress as they transition to adulthood. PMID:27335948

  15. Cardiovascular Responses to Psychosocial Stress Reflect Motivation State in Adults Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight.

    PubMed

    Mathewson, Karen J; Pyhälä, Riikka; Hovi, Petteri; Räikkönen, Katri; Van Lieshout, Ryan J; Boyle, Michael H; Saigal, Saroj; Morrison, Katherine M; Kajantie, Eero; Schmidt, Louis A

    2015-01-01

    Background. Adults born extremely preterm appear to have more difficulty managing the stresses of early adulthood than their term-born peers. Objective. To examine the effects of being born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight < 1000 g) versus at full term on cardiovascular responses to stress. Method. Cardiovascular responses were elicited during administration of a widely used laboratory stressor, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Results. Term-born adults exhibited a larger decrease in total peripheral resistance and larger increase in cardiac output for TSST performance, reflecting greater resilience, than did ELBW adults. Furthermore, in ELBW participants but not controls, cardiovascular responses were correlated with anxiety, suggesting that their responses reflected feelings of stress. Conclusions. Skills-training and practice with relevant stressors may be necessary to increase the personal resources of ELBW participants for managing stress as they transition to adulthood. PMID:27335948

  16. Profile reconstruction in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) scatterometry: modeling and uncertainty estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, H.; Rathsfeld, A.; Scholze, F.; Bär, M.

    2009-10-01

    Scatterometry as a non-imaging indirect optical method in wafer metrology is also relevant to lithography masks designed for extreme ultraviolet lithography, where light with wavelengths in the range of 13 nm is applied. The solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the determination of periodic surface structures regarding critical dimensions (CD) and other profile properties from light diffraction patterns, is incomplete without knowledge of the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed parameters. The numerical simulation of the diffraction process for periodic 2D structures can be realized by the finite element solution of the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. The inverse problem can be formulated as a nonlinear operator equation in Euclidean space. The operator maps the sought mask parameters to the efficiencies of diffracted plane wave modes. We employ a Gauß-Newton type iterative method to solve this operator equation and end up minimizing the deviation of the measured efficiency or phase shift values from the calculated ones. We apply our reconstruction algorithm for the measurement of a typical EUV mask composed of TaN absorber lines of about 80 nm height, a period in the range of 420 nm-840 nm, and with an underlying MoSi-multilayer stack of 300 nm thickness. Clearly, the uncertainties of the reconstructed geometric parameters essentially depend on the uncertainties of the input data and can be estimated by various methods. We apply a Monte Carlo procedure and an approximative covariance method to evaluate the reconstruction algorithm. Finally, we analyze the influence of uncertainties in the widths of the multilayer stack by the Monte Carlo method.

  17. Centile estimation for a proportion response variable.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Abu; Rigby, Robert; Stasinopoulos, Mikis; Enea, Marco

    2016-03-15

    This paper introduces two general models for computing centiles when the response variable Y can take values between 0 and 1, inclusive of 0 or 1. The models developed are more flexible alternatives to the beta inflated distribution. The first proposed model employs a flexible four parameter logit skew Student t (logitSST) distribution to model the response variable Y on the unit interval (0, 1), excluding 0 and 1. This model is then extended to the inflated logitSST distribution for Y on the unit interval, including 1. The second model developed in this paper is a generalised Tobit model for Y on the unit interval, including 1. Applying these two models to (1-Y) rather than Y enables modelling of Y on the unit interval including 0 rather than 1. An application of the new models to real data shows that they can provide superior fits. PMID:26434649

  18. AN OVERVIEW OF TOOL FOR RESPONSE ACTION COST ESTIMATING (TRACE)

    SciTech Connect

    FERRIES SR; KLINK KL; OSTAPKOWICZ B

    2012-01-30

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  19. Plant phenological responses to extreme events - A long term perspective from the Chihuahuan Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browning, D. M.; Peters, D. P.; Anderson, J.; Yao, J.

    2011-12-01

    Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern USA are especially sensitive to changes in temperature as well as drought frequency and intensity. Timing of periodic life cycle events (i.e., phenology) is an integrated and salient indicator of plant responses to climate change. We examine an 18-year dataset of monthly observations of plant phenology for two species of perennial grasses and a deciduous shrub (honey mesquite) distributed across three upland grassland sites and three mesquite-dominated sites on the Jornada Basin USDA-LTER in southern New Mexico, USA. Precipitation is highly variable between years and across space. Long-term phenology data collection spanned a multi-year drought (1994-2003) followed by a sequence of years with average to very high rainfall (2004 - 2008). Our objective was to compare and contrast responses to extreme dry and wet cycles in the timing and duration of first leaf and fruit production for two grasses (Bouteloua eriopoda [black grama], Sporobolus flexuosus [mesa dropseed]) with one co-existing shrub that has displaced grasses in this system (Prosopis glandulosa [honey mesquite]). Monthly field observations yield estimates of phenological status and abundance for 18 growing seasons from 1993 to 2010. All three species most commonly initiated new growth prior to onset of the monsoon rains (March or April). Timing of first growth for mesquite was less variable (standard deviation = 0.47) than for black grama (SD = 1.42) and mesa dropseed (SD = 1.22) grasses. Initial growth for grasses was delayed to September in 2006 following twelve months of deficit values for PDSI. The appearance of first fruit for grasses occurred consistently in August or September, although the number of plants producing fruit was highly variable from year to year. The largest numbers of fruit-bearing grasses were observed in late fall 2008 in response to heavy monsoon rains in 2006 and 2008. Mesquite demonstrated remarkable synchrony in the production of

  20. Statistical estimation of extreme ocean waves over the eastern Canadian shelf from 30-year numerical wave simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

    2015-11-01

    Reliable estimation of extreme ocean surface gravity waves is important for many scientific and practical issues. In this study, WAVEWATCHIII is used to simulate wave conditions over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS) for the 30-year period, 1979-2008. The wave model is forced by the 6-hourly winds and ice cover taken from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A parametric vortex is inserted into the CFSR winds to better represent surface winds associated with tropical storms or hurricanes. The model performance in simulating the bulk significant wave height is assessed by comparing model results with wave observations at 12 buoy stations over the ECS. The peaks-over-threshold method is used to estimate the extreme significant wave heights from 30-year wave simulations. The estimated extreme waves with the 50-year return period over the ECS feature large wave heights of more than 12 m in the offshore deep waters and about 8-12 m over the open shelf waters of the ECS. By comparison, the 50-year extreme waves are moderate and 7 m or less in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and inner Gulf of Maine.

  1. Prediction of Ship Response Statistics in Extreme Seas Using Model Tests Data and Numerical Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Bingjie; Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta Maria; Sun, Hui; Block Helmers, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Earlier investigations have indicated that proper prediction of nonlinear loads and responses due to nonlinear waves is important for ship safety in extreme seas. However, the nonlinear loads and responses in extreme seas have not been sufficiently investigated yet, particularly when rogue waves are considered. A question remains whether the existing linear codes can predict nonlinear loads and responses with a satisfactory accuracy and how large the deviations from linear predictions are. To indicate it response statistics have been studied based on the model tests carried out with a LNG tanker in the towing tank of the Technical University of Berlin (TUB), and compared with the statistics derived from numerical simulations using the DNV code WASIM. It is a potential code for wave-ship interaction based on 3D Panel method, which can perform both linear and nonlinear simulation. The numerical simulations with WASIM and the model tests in extreme and rogue waves have been performed. The analysis of ship motions (heave and pitch) and bending moments, in both regular and irregular waves, is performed. The results from the linear and nonlinear simulations are compared with experimental data to indicate the impact of wave non-linearity on loads and response calculations when the code based on the Rankine Panel Method is used. The study shows that nonlinearities may have significant effect on extreme motions and bending moment generated by strongly nonlinear waves. The effect of water depth on ship responses is also demonstrated using numerical simulations. Uncertainties related to the results are discussed, giving particular attention to sampling variability.

  2. Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response.

    PubMed

    Siri, José Gabriel; Newell, Barry; Proust, Katrina; Capon, Anthony

    2016-03-01

    Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events. PMID:26219559

  3. Prior exposure to extreme pain alters neural response to pain in others.

    PubMed

    Eidelman-Rothman, Moranne; Goldstein, Abraham; Weisman, Omri; Schneiderman, Inna; Zagoory-Sharon, Orna; Decety, Jean; Feldman, Ruth

    2016-08-01

    In the extant literature examining the brain mechanisms implicated in pain perception, researchers have theorized that the overlapping responses to pain in the self and in others mark the human capacity for empathy. Here we investigated how prior exposure to extreme pain affects pain perception, by assessing the dynamics of pain processing in veterans who were previously exposed to severe injury. Forty-three participants (28 pain-exposed and 15 controls) underwent whole-head magnetoencephalography (MEG) while viewing photographs of limbs in painful and nonpainful (neutral) conditions. Among controls, an early (0-220 ms) "pain effect" in the posterior cingulate and sensorimotor cortices, and a later (760-900 ms) "pain effect" in the posterior cingulate cortex, superior temporal gyrus/insula, and fusiform gyrus were found, indicated by enhanced alpha suppression to the pain versus nonpain conditions. Importantly, pain-exposed participants exhibited an atypical pain response in the posterior cingulate cortex, indicated by a normative response to pain, but no pain-to-no-pain differentiation. This may suggest that individuals exposed to extreme pain may perceive neutral stimuli as potentially threatening. Our findings demonstrate alterations in pain perception following extreme pain exposure, chart the sequence from automatic to evaluative pain processing, and emphasize the importance of considering past experiences in studying the neural response to others' states. PMID:27032959

  4. Contingenet Productivity Responses to More Extreme Rainfall Regimes Across a Grassland Biome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heisler-White, J. L.; Knapp, A.; Collins, S.; Blair, J.; Kelly, E.

    2008-12-01

    Climate models predict, and empirical evidence confirms, that more extreme precipitation regimes are occurring in tandem with warmer atmospheric temperatures. These more extreme rainfall patterns are characterized by increased event size separated by longer within season drought periods, and represent novel climatic conditions whose consequences for different ecosystem types are largely unknown. The focus of this talk will be the impacts of extreme rainfall events on soil water content and ecosystem function, and we will present results from experimental manipulations of rainfall in four native grassland sites within the Great Plains Region of North America (USA). Along this precipitation-productivity gradient, our results suggest strong sensitivity to more extreme growing season rainfall regimes, with responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) contingent on mean soil water levels for different grassland types. At the mesic end of the gradient (tallgrass prairie), longer dry intervals between events led to extended periods of below-average soil water content, increased plant water stress and a reduction in ANPP. The opposite response occurred at the dry end (semi-arid grasslands), where a shift to fewer, but larger, events increased periods of above-average soil water content, reduced seasonal plant water stress and resulted in an increase in ANPP. These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how terrestrial ecosystem will respond to forecast novel climate conditions as well as the difficulties in extending inferences from single site experiments across biomes. Even with no change in annual precipitation amount, ANPP responses in a relatively uniform physiographic region differed in both magnitude and direction in response to within season changes in rainfall event size/frequency. From a mechanistic perspective, we believe that these contingent responses reflect strikingly different consequences for soil water content as a result of

  5. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    PubMed Central

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  6. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    PubMed

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  7. Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Pal, Jeremy S.; Trapp, Robert J.; Giorgi, Filippo

    2005-11-01

    We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change. extreme climate | RegCM3 | regional climate model | United States | CO2

  8. Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, and precipitation frequency can have adverse impacts on human health, air quality, agricultural productivity, and water resources. Using the aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) "single forcing" simulations (3 ensemble members each) from the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, we investigate aerosol- versus greenhouse gas-induced changes in high temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States. We identify changes in these events from 1860 to 2005 and the associated large-scale dynamical conditions. Small changes in these extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the individual, opposite-signed effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, aerosols lead to lower extreme high temperatures and fewer warm spells over the western US (-2.1 K regional average; -20 days/year) and over the central and northeast US (-1.5 K; -12 days/year). In GHG, a similar but opposite-signed response pattern occurs (+2.7 K and +14 days/year over the western US; +2.5 K and +10 days/year in the central and northeast US). The similar spatial response patterns in AER versus GHG suggest a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the regional distribution of the forcing agent. The influence of both greenhouse gases and aerosols on extreme high temperature is weakest in the southeast US, collocated with the observed "warming hole". No statistically significant change occurs in AER, and a warming of only +1.8 K occurs in GHG. Warming in this region continues to be muted over the 21st century under the RCP 8.5 scenario, with increases in extreme temperatures more than 1 K smaller than elsewhere. Aerosols induce decreases in the number of days per year with at least 10mm of precipitation (R10mm) over the eastern US in summer and winter and over the southern US in spring of roughly 1 day/year. In contrast, greenhouse gases

  9. Estimation of Graded Response Model Parameters Using MULTILOG.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Frank B.

    1997-01-01

    Describes an idiosyncracy of the MULTILOG (D. Thissen, 1991) parameter estimation process discovered during a simulation study involving the graded response model. A misordering reflected in boundary function location parameter estimates resulted in a large negative contribution to the true score followed by a large positive contribution. These…

  10. Reliability and validity of responses to submaximal all-extremity semirecumbent exercise in older adults.

    PubMed

    Mendelsohn, Marissa E; Connelly, Denise M; Overend, Tom J; Petrella, Robert J

    2007-04-01

    Although popular in clinical settings, little is known about the utility of all-extremity semirecumbent exercise machines for research. Twenty-one community-dwelling older adults performed two exercise trials (three 4-min stages at increasing workloads) to evaluate the reliability and validity of exercise responses to submaximal all-extremity semirecumbent exercise (BioStep). Exercise responses were measured directly (Cosmed K4b2) and indirectly through software on the BioStep. Test-retest reliability (ICC2,1) was moderate to high across all three stages for directly measured METs (.92, .87, and .88) and HR (.91, .83, and .86). Concurrent criterion validity between the K4b2 and BioStep MET values was moderate to very good across the three stages on both Day 1 (r = .86, .71, and .83) and Day 2 (r = .73, .87, and .72). All-extremity semirecumbent submaximal exercise elicited reliable and valid responses in our sample of older adults and thus can be considered a viable exercise mode. PMID:17556784

  11. Ramp response estimation and spectrum extrapolation for ultrasonic scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, G. A.

    1984-08-01

    A combined application of digital signal processing, estimation theory, and scattering theory is used to attack the important problem of target identification. The basic problem is that of examining an object with an ultrasonic pulse and using the reflected signal to determine various properties of the object. Typically, an impulse reponse h(t) can be calculated from knowledge of the (input x(t)) signal and the reflected (output y(t)) signal. If the impulse response can be found, it can sometimes contain important information about the object. We have studied some new algorithms for impulse response estimation. It is also well-known that the ramp response contains information about the cross-sectional area of the scatterer. The ramp response can be calculated directly from the impulse response, but the estimate of cross-sectional area is degraded by the fact that the ultrasonic transducer severely bandlimits the data. Algorithms have been produced for extrapolating the ramp response spectrum to improve the cross-sectional area estimates from the ramp response technique. Experimental results demonstrating the estimation of properties of a known flaw (created by a saw cut) in a block of aluminum are presented.

  12. The Use of Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for Deriving Extreme Precipitation Frequencies with Application in Louisiana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Dardiry, Hisham Abd El-Kareem

    The Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) is one of the NEXRAD products that are available in a high temporal and spatial resolution compared with gauges. Radar-based QPEs have been widely used in many hydrological and meteorological applications; however, a few studies have focused on using radar QPE products in deriving of Precipitation Frequency Estimates (PFE). Accurate and regionally specific information on PFE is critically needed for various water resources engineering planning and design purposes. This study focused first on examining the data quality of two main radar products, the near real-time Stage IV QPE product, and the post real-time RFC/MPE product. Assessment of the Stage IV product showed some alarming data artifacts that contaminate the identification of rainfall maxima. Based on the inter-comparison analysis of the two products, Stage IV and RFC/MPE, the latter was selected for the frequency analysis carried out throughout the study. The precipitation frequency analysis approach used in this study is based on fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as a statistical model for the hydrologic extreme rainfall data that based on Annual Maximum Series (AMS) extracted from 11 years (2002-2012) over a domain covering Louisiana. The parameters of the GEV model are estimated using method of linear moments (L-moments). Two different approaches are suggested for estimating the precipitation frequencies; Pixel-Based approach, in which PFEs are estimated at each individual pixel and Region-Based approach in which a synthetic sample is generated at each pixel by using observations from surrounding pixels. The region-based technique outperforms the pixel based estimation when compared with results obtained by NOAA Atlas 14; however, the availability of only short record of observations and the underestimation of radar QPE for some extremes causes considerable reduction in precipitation frequencies in pixel-based and region

  13. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    PubMed Central

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  14. Response of shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, to extreme winter conditions in the Lower Laguna Madre, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hicks, D.W.; Onuf, C.P.; Tunnell, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    Effects of a severe freeze on the shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, were documented through analysis of temporal and spatial trends in below-ground biomass. The coincidence of the second lowest temperature (-10.6??C) in 107 years of record, 56 consecutive hours below freezing, high winds and extremely low water levels exposed the Laguna Madre, TX, to the most severe cold stress in over a century. H. wrightii tolerated this extreme freeze event. Annual pre- and post-freeze surveys indicated that below-ground biomass estimated from volume was Unaffected by the freeze event. Nor was there any post-freeze change in biomass among intertidal sites directly exposed to freezing air temperatures relative to subtidal sites which remained submerged during the freezing period.

  15. Recent Findings on the Mechanical Responses of Nanostructures to Extreme Loading Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Chen Zhen; Gan Yong; Shen Luming; Chen, J. K.

    2010-05-21

    A systematic investigation is being performed to understand the combined size, loading rate and thermal effects on the responses of nanostructures such as nanofilms and nanowires. This paper summarizes what has been found so far, and presents the recent molecular dynamics simulations of the mechanical behaviors of single crystal fcc nanowires and nanofilms under different temperatures and extremely high strain rates. Based on the model-based simulation results, the mechanism of the nanostructural responses will be explored and future research tasks will be discussed.

  16. An extreme ultraviolet telescope with no soft X-ray response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Finley, David S.; Jelinsky, Patrick; Bowyer, Stuart; Malina, Roger F.

    1986-01-01

    While EUV grazing incidence telescopes of conventional design exhibit a substantial X-ray response as well as an extreme UV response, and existing bandpass filters for the transmission of radiation longward of 400 A also transmit soft X-rays, the grazing incidence telescope presented suppresses this soft X-ray throughput through the incorporation of a Wolter Schwarzschild Type II mirror with large graze angles. The desirable features of an EUV photometric survey telescope are retained. An instrument of this design will be flown on the EUE mission, in order to make a survey of the sky at wavelengths longer than 400 A.

  17. Evaluation of Piloted Inputs for Onboard Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Martos, Borja

    2013-01-01

    Frequency response estimation results are presented using piloted inputs and a real-time estimation method recently developed for multisine inputs. A nonlinear simulation of the F-16 and a Piper Saratoga research aircraft were subjected to different piloted test inputs while the short period stabilator/elevator to pitch rate frequency response was estimated. Results show that the method can produce accurate results using wide-band piloted inputs instead of multisines. A new metric is introduced for evaluating which data points to include in the analysis and recommendations are provided for applying this method with piloted inputs.

  18. Comparative Metagenomic Analysis Reveals Mechanisms for Stress Response in Hypoliths from Extreme Hyperarid Deserts.

    PubMed

    Le, Phuong Thi; Makhalanyane, Thulani P; Guerrero, Leandro D; Vikram, Surendra; Van de Peer, Yves; Cowan, Don A

    2016-01-01

    Understanding microbial adaptation to environmental stressors is crucial for interpreting broader ecological patterns. In the most extreme hot and cold deserts, cryptic niche communities are thought to play key roles in ecosystem processes and represent excellent model systems for investigating microbial responses to environmental stressors. However, relatively little is known about the genetic diversity underlying such functional processes in climatically extreme desert systems. This study presents the first comparative metagenome analysis of cyanobacteria-dominated hypolithic communities in hot (Namib Desert, Namibia) and cold (Miers Valley, Antarctica) hyperarid deserts. The most abundant phyla in both hypolith metagenomes were Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria and Bacteroidetes with Cyanobacteria dominating in Antarctic hypoliths. However, no significant differences between the two metagenomes were identified. The Antarctic hypolithic metagenome displayed a high number of sequences assigned to sigma factors, replication, recombination and repair, translation, ribosomal structure, and biogenesis. In contrast, the Namib Desert metagenome showed a high abundance of sequences assigned to carbohydrate transport and metabolism. Metagenome data analysis also revealed significant divergence in the genetic determinants of amino acid and nucleotide metabolism between these two metagenomes and those of soil from other polar deserts, hot deserts, and non-desert soils. Our results suggest extensive niche differentiation in hypolithic microbial communities from these two extreme environments and a high genetic capacity for survival under environmental extremes. PMID:27503299

  19. Whole-body heating decreases skin vascular response to low orthostatic stress in the lower extremities.

    PubMed

    Yamazaki, Fumio; Nakayama, Yoshiro; Sone, Ryoko

    2006-04-01

    To elucidate the influence of heat stress on cutaneous vascular response in the lower extremities during orthostatic stress, a head-up tilt (HUT) test at angles of 15 degrees, 30 degrees, 45 degrees, and 60 degrees for 4 min each was conducted under normothermic control conditions followed by whole-body heat stress produced by a hot water-perfused suit in healthy volunteers. Skin blood flows (SkBF) in the forearm, thigh, and calf were monitored using laser-Doppler flowmetry throughout the experiment. Furthermore, to elucidate the effects of increased core and local skin temperatures on the local vascular response in calf skin under increasing orthostatic stress, the thigh was occluded at 20, 30, 50, 70, and 80 mmHg with a cuff in both the normothermic condition and the whole-body or local heating condition. Significant decreases in forearm SkBF during HUT were observed at an angle of 60 degrees during normothermia and at 30 degrees or more during heating. SkBF in the thigh and calf was decreased significantly by HUT at 15 degrees and above during normothermia, and there was no significant reduction of SkBF in these sites during HUT at the lower angles (15 degrees -45 degrees ) during whole-body heating. Significant decreases of calf SkBF were observed at cuff pressures of 20 mmHg and above during normothermia and of 30 mmHg and above during whole-body and local heating, respectively. These results suggest that SkBF in the lower extremities shows a marked reduction compared with the upper extremities during low orthostatic stress in normothermia, and the enhanced skin vasoconstrictor response in the lower extremities is diminished by both whole-body and local heat stress. PMID:16839449

  20. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-04-22

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response models estimate dose for inhalation and ground shine pathways. A methodology has been developed to incorporate ingestion doses into the emergency response models. The methodology follows a two-phase approach. The first phase estimates site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) which can be compared with predicted ground-level concentrations to determine if intervention is needed to protect the public. This phase uses accepted methods with little deviation from recommended guidance. The second phase uses site-specific data to estimate a 'best estimate' dose to offsite individuals from ingestion of foodstuffs. While this method deviates from recommended guidance, it is technically defensibly and more realistic. As guidance is updated, these methods also will need to be updated.

  1. The Stability of Extreme Response Style and Acquiescence Over 8 Years.

    PubMed

    Wetzel, Eunike; Lüdtke, Oliver; Zettler, Ingo; Böhnke, Jan R

    2016-06-01

    This study investigated the stability of extreme response style (ERS) and acquiescence response style (ARS) over a period of 8 years. ERS and ARS were measured with item sets drawn randomly from a large pool of items used in an ongoing German panel study. Latent-trait-state-occasion and latent-state models were applied to test the relationship between time-specific (state) response style behaviors and time-invariant trait components of response styles. The results show that across different random item samples, on average between 49% and 59% of the variance in the state response style factors was explained by the trait response style factors. This indicates that the systematic differences respondents show in their preferences for certain response categories are remarkably stable over a period of 8 years. The stability of ERS and ARS implies that it is important to consider response styles in the analysis of self-report data from polytomous rating scales, especially in longitudinal studies aimed at investigating stability in substantive traits. Furthermore, the stability of response styles raises the question in how far they might be considered trait-like latent variables themselves that could be of substantive interest. PMID:25986062

  2. Role of Soils in Hydrologic Response to Climate Extremes and Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Reedy, R. C.; Faunt, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing demand for water in response to growing global population underscores the need to better understand linkages and feedbacks between land surface processes and water resources to manage water resources more sustainably. Here we examine the role of soils on hydrologic response to climate extremes and land use change using field scale and remote sensing data at point to basin scales in the U.S. High Plains and California Central Valley. In the U.S. High Plains, soil-textural variations make the difference between sustainable water resources related to coarse-grained soils in the northern High Plains and groundwater mining associated with fine-grained soils in much of the central and southern High Plains. Field data show dynamic response of water resources to droughts and land use change in the northern High Plains with limited response in much of the central and southern High Plains. Soil profiles provide a key to the past by archiving system response to environmental changes in subsurface soil physics and environmental tracer data. Areas with coarse-grained soils are vulnerable to reduced recharge during droughts and increased recharge with land use change from perennial to annual vegetation whereas fine-grained soils are generally insensitive to these stresses. GRACE satellite monitoring of total water storage variations in response to recent droughts is consistent with these spatial variations in soils across the High Plains and hydrologic response to droughts.In the California Central Valley, coarse grained soils in alluvial basins result in dynamic hydrologic responses to climate extremes. GRACE satellite data show marked depletion in total water storage in response to recent droughts reflecting groundwater and surface reservoir storage declines consistent with regional groundwater modeling and monitoring data. The coarse alluvial soils typical of much of the region facilitate managed aquifer recharge in depleted aquifers to complement surface reservoir

  3. Intra-individual variation of extreme response style in mixed-mode panel studies

    PubMed Central

    Aichholzer, Julian

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that the self-report survey method suffers from many idiosyncratic biases, such as varying response styles due to different survey modes used. Using latent state-trait theory it is argued that response styles will also vary intra-individually, depending on the particular survey situation. In this study we examine intra-individual variation in extreme response style behavior (ERS) using mixed-mode survey panel data as a quasi-experimental setting. Data from the Irish National Election Study panel are used, which consists of repeated face-to-face and mail-back surveys. Latent transition analysis is used to detect switches in ERS, distinguishing ‘stable’ and ‘volatile’ respondents in terms of their response style. Overall, ERS is inflated in the intermediate mail component of the panel, whereas preliminary analyses suggest that low education and ideological extremity are drivers of that change. Results are discussed with regards to measurement errors in mixed-mode and longitudinal surveys. PMID:23522006

  4. On the mechanical modeling of the extreme softening/stiffening response of axially loaded tensegrity prisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraternali, Fernando; Carpentieri, Gerardo; Amendola, Ada

    2015-01-01

    We study the geometrically nonlinear behavior of uniformly compressed tensegrity prisms through fully elastic and rigid-elastic models. The given models predict a variety of mechanical behaviors in the regime of large displacements, including an extreme stiffening-type response, already known in the literature, and a newly discovered, extreme softening behavior. The latter may lead to a snap buckling event producing an axial collapse of the structure. The switching from one mechanical regime to another depends on the aspect ratio of the structure, the magnitude of the applied prestress, and the material properties of the constituent elements. We discuss potential mechanical and acoustic applications of such behaviors, which are related to the design and manufacture of tensegrity lattices and innovative metamaterials.

  5. Extreme flood estimation by the SCHADEX method in a snow-driven catchment: application to Atnasjø (Norway)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paquet, Emmanuel; Lawrence, Deborah

    2013-04-01

    The SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation was developed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013), and since 2008, it is the reference method used by Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard usingrainfall-runoff modelling. The MORDOR hydrological model (Garçon, 1999) has thus far been used for the rainfall-runoff modelling. MORDOR is a conceptual, lumped, reservoir model with daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt, and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 15 years, in particular for inflow forecasts for French mountainous catchments. SCHADEX has now also been applied to the Atnasjø catchment (463 km²), a well-documented inland catchment in south-central Norway, dominated by snowmelt flooding during spring/early summer. To support this application, a weather pattern classification based on extreme rainfall was first established for Norway (Fleig, 2012). This classification scheme was then used to build a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern distribution (MEWP), as introduced by Garavaglia et al. (2010) for extreme rainfall estimation. The MORDOR model was then calibrated relative to daily discharge data for Atnasjø. Finally, a SCHADEX simulation was run to build a daily discharge distribution with a sufficient number of simulations for assessing the extreme quantiles. Detailed results are used to illustrate how SCHADEX handles the complex and interacting hydrological processes driving flood generation in this snow driven catchment. Seasonal and monthly distributions, as well as statistics for several thousand simulated events reaching a 1000 years return level

  6. Physiological responses at five estimates of critical velocity.

    PubMed

    Bull, Anthony J; Housh, Terry J; Johnson, Glen O; Rana, Sharon R

    2008-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare critical velocity (CV) estimates from five mathematical models, and to examine the oxygen uptake (VO(2)) and heart rate (HR) responses during treadmill runs at the five estimates of CV. Ten subjects (six males and four females) performed one incremental test to determine maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2max)) and four or five randomly ordered constant-velocity trials on a treadmill for the estimation of CV. Five mathematical models were used to estimate CV for each subject including two linear, two nonlinear, and an exponential model. Up to five randomly ordered runs to exhaustion were performed by each subject at treadmill velocities that corresponded to the five CV estimates, and VO(2) and HR responses were monitored throughout each trial. The 3-parameter, nonlinear (Non-3) model produced CV estimates that were significantly (P < 0.05) less than the other four models. During runs at CV estimates, five subjects did not complete 60 min at the their estimate from the Non-3 model, nine did not complete 60 min at their estimate from the Non-2 model, and no subjects completed 60 min at any estimate from the other three models. The mean HR value (179 +/- 18 beats min(-1), HR(peak)) at the end of runs at CV using the Non-3 model was significantly less than the maximal HR (195 +/- 7 beats min(-1), HR(max)) achieved during the incremental trial to exhaustion. However, mean HR(peak) values from runs at all other CV estimates were not significantly different from HR(max). Furthermore, data indicated that mean HR(peak) values increased during runs at CV estimates from the third minute to the end of exercise for all models, and that these increases in VO(2) (range = 367-458 ml min(-1)) were significantly greater than that typically associated with O(2) drift ( approximately 200 ml min(-1)) for all but the exponential model, indicating a VO(2) slow component associated with CV estimates from four of the five models. However, the mean VO(2

  7. Evidence for two extremes of ciliary motor response in a single swimming microorganism.

    PubMed

    Jung, Ilyong; Powers, Thomas R; Valles, James M

    2014-01-01

    Because arrays of motile cilia drive fluids for a range of processes, the versatile mechano-chemical mechanism coordinating them has been under scrutiny. The protist Paramecium presents opportunities to compare how groups of cilia perform two distinct functions, swimming propulsion and nutrient uptake. We present how the body cilia responsible for propulsion and the oral-groove cilia responsible for nutrient uptake respond to changes in their mechanical environment accomplished by varying the fluid viscosity over a factor of 7. Analysis with a phenomenological model of trajectories of swimmers made neutrally buoyant with magnetic forces combined with high-speed imaging of ciliary beating reveal that the body cilia exert a nearly constant propulsive force primarily by reducing their beat frequency as viscosity increases. By contrast, the oral-groove cilia beat at a nearly constant frequency. The existence of two extremes of motor response in a unicellular organism prompts unique investigations of factors controlling ciliary beating. PMID:24411242

  8. Evidence for Two Extremes of Ciliary Motor Response in a Single Swimming Microorganism

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Ilyong; Powers, Thomas R.; Valles, James M.

    2014-01-01

    Because arrays of motile cilia drive fluids for a range of processes, the versatile mechano-chemical mechanism coordinating them has been under scrutiny. The protist Paramecium presents opportunities to compare how groups of cilia perform two distinct functions, swimming propulsion and nutrient uptake. We present how the body cilia responsible for propulsion and the oral-groove cilia responsible for nutrient uptake respond to changes in their mechanical environment accomplished by varying the fluid viscosity over a factor of 7. Analysis with a phenomenological model of trajectories of swimmers made neutrally buoyant with magnetic forces combined with high-speed imaging of ciliary beating reveal that the body cilia exert a nearly constant propulsive force primarily by reducing their beat frequency as viscosity increases. By contrast, the oral-groove cilia beat at a nearly constant frequency. The existence of two extremes of motor response in a unicellular organism prompts unique investigations of factors controlling ciliary beating. PMID:24411242

  9. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Mason, Matthew S.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with

  10. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2003-07-21

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response computer models are used to estimate dose following releases of radioactive materials to the environment. Downwind air and ground concentrations and their associated doses from inhalation and ground shine pathways are estimated. The emergency response model (PUFF-PLUME) uses real-time data to track either instantaneous (puff) or continuous (plume) releases. A site-specific ingestion dose model was developed for use with PUFF-PLUME that includes the following ingestion dose pathways pertinent to the surrounding SRS area: milk, beef, water, and fish. The model is simplistic and can be used with existing code output.

  11. Toward Extreme Biophysics: Deciphering the Infrared Response of Biomolecular Solutions at High Pressures.

    PubMed

    Imoto, Sho; Kibies, Patrick; Rosin, Christopher; Winter, Roland; Kast, Stefan M; Marx, Dominik

    2016-08-01

    Biophysics under extreme conditions is the fundamental platform for scrutinizing life in unusual habitats, such as those in the deep sea or continental subsurfaces, but also for putative extraterrestrial organisms. Therefore, an important thermodynamic variable to explore is pressure. It is shown that the combination of infrared spectroscopy with simulation is an exquisite approach for unraveling the intricate pressure response of the solvation pattern of TMAO in water, which is expected to be transferable to biomolecules in their native solvent. Pressure-enhanced hydrogen bonding was found for TMAO in water. TMAO is a molecule known to stabilize proteins against pressure-induced denaturation in deep-sea organisms. PMID:27351995

  12. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida.

    PubMed

    Rámila, Consuelo D P; Contreras, Samuel A; Di Domenico, Camila; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Vega, Andrea; Handford, Michael; Bonilla, Carlos A; Pizarro, Gonzalo E

    2016-11-01

    Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems. PMID:27322905

  13. Geomorphically Effective Energy Expenditure for Quantifying Channel Responses to Extreme Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amponsah, William; Righini, Margherita; Wohl, Ellen E.; Borga, Marco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rathburn, Sara L.; Surian, Nicola; Zoccatelli, Davide

    2016-04-01

    Flash floods are characterized by strong spatio-temporal rainfall variability and therefore show variations in energy expenditure and associated geomorphic impacts that depend on geological controls on channel geometry and sediment characteristics, as well as on variations in flood intensity. Geomorphic modification is expected to occur in river channels when driving forces (i.e., hydraulic and abrasive forces of water and sediment acting on the channel) exceed threshold of resisting forces (i.e., the ability of channel boundaries to remain unchanged by the passage of water and sediments). However, these forces that determine the capacity of floods to modify existing channel configuration are extremely difficult to quantify. Geomorphic impacts or hazards usually take the form of erosional and depositional modification of the pre-flood channel and valley geometry. A central question in hydrogeomorphology relates to why flash floods of similar magnitudes and intensities sometimes produce dissimilar geomorphic results? In fact, some less magnitude floods in terms of discharge per unit of drainage area have been found to produce major geomorphic damage than some high magnitude events. Furthermore, the use of peak instantaneous flow parameters such as discharge, velocity, shear stress and stream power to quantify geomorphic changes have often been non-deterministic and/or inconclusive. Investigations are therefore needed on how factors such as channel geometry, substrate, riparian vegetation, sediment supply, and flood magnitude and duration can interact and influence geomorphic effectiveness of high magnitude floods. The main objective of this study is to assess the coupled influence of flood-flow duration and total energy expenditure on geomorphic response to extreme flash floods, which is aimed at developing an index that combines flow duration, stream power per unit area and threshold for major channel erosion to be evaluated as a predictor of geomorphic adjustment

  14. The oceanic response of the Turkish Straits System to an extreme drop in atmospheric pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Book, Jeffrey W.; Jarosz, Ewa; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Beşiktepe, Åükrü

    2014-06-01

    Moorings across all four entry/exit sections of the Dardanelles Strait and the Bosphorus Strait simultaneously measured the response of the Turkish Straits System to the passage of a severe cyclonic storm that included an atmospheric pressure drop of more than 30 mbar in less than 48 h. The bottom pressure response at the Aegean Sea side of the Dardanelles Strait was consistent with an inverted barometer response, but the response at the other sections did not follow an inverted barometer, leading to a large bottom pressure gradient through the Turkish Straits System. Upper-layer flow toward the Aegean Sea was reversed by the storm and flow toward the Black Sea was greatly enhanced. Bottom pressure across the Sea of Marmara peaked 6 h after the passage of the storm's minimum pressure. The response on the Dardanelles side was a combination of sea elevation and pycnocline depth rise, and the response on the Bosphorus side was an even greater sea elevation rise and a drop in pycnocline depth. The peak in bottom pressure in the Sea of Marmara was followed by another reverse in the flow through the Dardanelles Strait as flow was then directed away from the Sea of Marmara in both straits. A simple conceptual model without wind is able to explain fluctuations in bottom pressure in the Sea of Marmara to a 0.89-0.96 level of correlation. This stresses the importance of atmospheric pressure dynamics in driving the mass flux of the Turkish Strait System for extreme storms.

  15. The Effect of Omitted Responses on Ability Estimation in IRT.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Ayala, R. J.; Plake, Barbara S.; Impara, James C.; Kozmicky, Michelle

    This study investigated the effect on examinees' ability estimate under item response theory (IRT) when they are presented an item, have ample time to answer the item, but decide not to respond to the item. Simulation data were modeled on an empirical data set of 25,546 examinees that was calibrated using the 3-parameter logistic model. The study…

  16. Influence of Turbulence, Orientation, and Site Configuration on the Response of Buildings to Extreme Wind

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings. PMID:24701140

  17. Iron homeostasis and responses to iron limitation in extreme acidophiles from the Ferroplasma genus.

    PubMed

    Potrykus, Joanna; Jonna, Venkateswara Rao; Dopson, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Extremely acidophilic archaea from the genus Ferroplasma inhabit iron-rich biomining environments and are important constituents of naturally occurring microbial consortia that catalyze the production of acid mine drainage. A combined bioinformatic, transcript profiling, and proteomic approach was used to elucidate iron homeostasis mechanisms in "F. acidarmanus" Fer1 and F. acidiphilum Y(T) . Bioinformatic analysis of the "F. acidarmanus" Fer1 genome sequence revealed genes encoding proteins hypothesized to be involved in iron-dependent gene regulation and siderophore biosynthesis; the Fhu and NRAMP cation acquisition systems; iron storage proteins; and the SUF machinery for the biogenesis of Fe-S clusters. A subset of homologous genes was identified on the F. acidiphilum Y(T) chromosome by direct PCR probing. In both strains, some of the genes appeared to be regulated in a ferrous/ferric iron-dependent manner, as indicated by RT-PCR. A detailed gel-based proteomics analysis of responses to iron depletion showed that a putative isochorismatase, presumably involved in siderophore biosynthesis, and the SufBCD system were upregulated under iron-limiting conditions. No evidence was obtained for iron sparing response during iron limitation. This study constitutes the first detailed investigation of iron homeostasis in extremely acidophilic archaea. PMID:21182194

  18. Post Mortem Human Surrogate Injury Response of the Pelvis and Lower Extremities to Simulated Underbody Blast.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Ann M; Christopher, John J; Brozoski, Frederick; Salzar, Robert S

    2015-08-01

    Military vehicle underbody blast (UBB) is the cause of many serious injuries in theatre today; however, the effects of these chaotic events on the human body are not well understood. The purpose of this research was to replicate both UBB loading conditions and investigate occupant response in a controlled laboratory setting. In addition to better understanding the response of the human to high rate vertical loading, this test series also aimed to identify high rate injury thresholds. Ten whole body post mortem human surrogate (PMHS) tests were completed using the University of Virginia's ODYSSEY simulated blast rig under a range of loading conditions. Seat pan accelerations ranged from 291 to 738 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration, and foot pan accelerations from 234 to 858 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration. Post-test computed tomography (CT) scans and necropsies were performed to determine injuries, and revealed a combination of pelvic, lumbar, thoracic, and lower extremity injuries. The research in this paper discusses pelvis and lower extremity injuries under high rate vertical loads. PMID:25503737

  19. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

    PubMed

    Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-09-01

    The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. PMID:25065257

  20. Maternal Microbe-Specific Modulation of Inflammatory Response in Extremely Low-Gestational-Age Newborns

    PubMed Central

    Fichorova, Raina N.; Onderdonk, Andrew B.; Yamamoto, Hidemi; Delaney, Mary L.; DuBois, Andrea M.; Allred, Elizabeth; Leviton, Alan

    2011-01-01

    The fetal response to intrauterine inflammatory stimuli appears to contribute to the onset of preterm labor as well as fetal injury, especially affecting newborns of extremely low gestational age. To investigate the role of placental colonization by specific groups of microorganisms in the development of inflammatory responses present at birth, we analyzed 25 protein biomarkers in dry blood spots obtained from 527 newborns delivered by Caesarean section in the 23rd to 27th gestation weeks. Bacteria were detected in placentas and characterized by culture techniques. Odds ratios for having protein concentrations in the top quartile for gestation age for individual and groups of microorganisms were calculated. Mixed bacterial vaginosis (BV) organisms were associated with a proinflammatory pattern similar to those of infectious facultative anaerobes. Prevotella and Gardnerella species, anaerobic streptococci, peptostreptococci, and genital mycoplasmas each appeared to be associated with a different pattern of elevated blood levels of inflammation-related proteins. Lactobacillus was associated with low odds of an inflammatory response. This study provides evidence that microorganisms colonizing the placenta provoke distinctive newborn inflammatory responses and that Lactobacillus may suppress these responses. PMID:21264056

  1. Edge Response and NIIRS Estimates for Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blonski, Slawomir; Ryan, Robert E.; Pagnutti, mary; Stanley, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Spatial resolution of panchromatic imagery from commercial remote sensing satellites was characterized based on edge response measurements using edge targets and the tilted-edge technique. Relative Edge Response (RER) was estimated as a geometric mean of normalized edge response differences measured in two directions of image pixels at points distanced from the edge by -0.5 and 0.5 of ground sample distance. RER is one of the engineering parameters used in the General Image Quality Equation to provide predictions of imaging system performance expressed in terms of the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale (NIIRS). By assuming a plausible range of signal-to-noise ratio and assessing the effects of Modulation Transfer Function compensation, the NIIRS estimates were made and then compared with vendor-provided values and evaluations conducted by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

  2. Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Russian Coasts of the Kuril Islands and the Sea of Okhotsk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevchenko, Georgy; Ivelskaya, Tatiana

    2015-12-01

    Extreme sea levels arising from the combination of tides, storm surges, seasonal oscillations and tsunamis were estimated by the joint probability method for the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific coast of the Kuril Islands. The sea-level observations at 10 coastal tide gauges were examined. The tidal heights at most stations are about 1.5-2 m, and only at Magadan are they much larger (about 5 m). Storm surges have the largest heights for the central Kuril Islands (Matua and Iturup islands), while at the North and South Kuril Islands the surge heights are the smallest. The recurrence of tsunami heights of various probabilities was estimated for each station. The influence of tides and storm surges on the tsunami risk assessment for the Pacific coast of the Kurile Islands was found to be relatively small. For the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk, the contribution of tides and surges is the primary influence, especially for return periods less than 100 years. For longer return periods, tsunamis play the major role in forming the extreme levels (similar to the Russian coast of the Sea of Japan, e.g., R abinovich et al. 1992).

  3. Estimates of future flow, including extremes, of the Columbia River headwaters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bürger, G.; Schulla, J.; Werner, A. T.

    2011-10-01

    Streamflow projections, including extremes, for the 2050s for the Columbia River headwaters above Donald are obtained by downscaling four regional climate models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite and subsequent driving of a hydrologic model. We employ the entire model chain from global and regional climate models, station-based statistical downscaling, and a fully distributed, physically based hydrologic model and verify the results against observed streamflow. The performance is model dependent but is generally encouraging enough to justify the application of the climate scenarios. A general warming of about 2°C is projected and, on average, slightly drier conditions, especially in late summer. We find evidence that the projected changes are elevation dependent and relatively small scale, with decreasing signals with higher elevations. All models project a shift of the hydrograph toward a more rain-fed regime, with peak flows occurring in June instead of July. Annual peak flow is projected to not increase, and August low flow decreases in all four models. With nonshrinking (static) glaciers, relatively high melting rates are simulated for August and September that partly compensate for the shifted hydrograph; this enhanced glacier melt is also detected in simulated historic Columbia headwater flow. The static approximation is supported by a heuristic seasonal sensitivity analysis that suggests a moderate average areal glacier recession of about 10% for the midcentury. We discuss the need for a dynamic glacier component for a refined assessment of future drought risk.

  4. ADEQUACY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES OF YIELD RESPONSES TO OZONE ESTIMATED FROM NCLAN DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Three methods of estimating confidence intervals for the parameters of Weibull nonlinear models are examined. hese methods are based on linear approximation theory (Wald), the likelihood ratio test, and Clarke's (1987) procedures. nalyses are based on Weibull dose-response equati...

  5. Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guangzhi; Osborn, Timothy J.; Matthews, Adrian J.; Joshi, Manoj M.

    2016-07-01

    On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of "moderate" and "extreme" El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST.

  6. On trend estimation and significance testing for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data: quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in hot extremes in the megacity of Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Cheng

    2016-07-01

    Quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in climate extremes is important both for detection and attribution studies and for human adaptation; however, a fundamental problem is how to accurately estimate a trend and its statistical significance, especially for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data. In this paper, the choice of trend estimation and significance testing method is suggested as important for these kinds of studies, as illustrated by quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in seven hot-extreme indices for the megacity of Shanghai during 1961-2013. Both linear and nonlinear trend estimation methods were used. The trends and corresponding statistical significances were estimated by taking into account potential non-Gaussian and serial dependence in the extreme indices. A new method based on adaptive surrogate data is proposed to test the statistical significance of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) nonlinear trend. The urbanization contribution was found to be approximately 34 % (43 %) for the trend in the non-Gaussian distributed heat wave index based on nonparametric linear trend (EEMD nonlinear trend) estimation. For some of the other six hot-extreme indices analyzed, the urbanization contributions estimated based on linear and nonlinear trends varied greatly, with as much as a twofold difference between them. For the linear trend estimation itself, the ordinary least squares fit can give a substantially biased estimation of the urbanization contribution for some of the non-Gaussian extreme indices.

  7. A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation.

    PubMed

    Furukawa, Kyoji; Misumi, Munechika; Cologne, John B; Cullings, Harry M

    2016-06-01

    In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures. PMID:26581473

  8. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    , frequency of disasters in a country, urbanization, and the level of human development (capturing income, life expectancy, and education)—and the numbers of people killed or in need of assistance at the country level. We replicate results from past studies in showing that human development, perhaps surprisingly, shows a strong non-linear relationship with risk (with countries of intermediate levels of development showing the highest risk levels), although we extend these results through the controlling for other variables. Second, we downscale a suite of GCMs using national meteorological data, in order to generate ranges of estimates for changes in the frequency of each of the climate hazards. Supplementing this, we consider a climate scenario that sees a linear extrapolation of current trends in hazard frequency. Third, we construct scenarios for each of the socio-economic vulnerability drivers, consistent with IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios for population and income changes, and UN estimates for other demographic changes. Pulling the three pieces of analysis together, we are able to construct risk scenarios until 2060. Our results are interesting in several respects. They show socio-economic development fully compensating for climate change in the impact on risk levels, within the range of estimated changes suggested by the suite of climate models. Recognizing the limits of models to predicting changed frequency of extreme events, there is also reason to believe that the current trend in increased hazard frequency may continue; for this latter scenario, risk levels rise substantially. Finally, given the observed non-linear relationship between development and risk, we observe in the B1 scenario risk levels at their highest level between 2030 and 2040, and then declining thereafter, as Mozambique passes the point of medium development. In the A2 scenario, by contrast, risk levels rise through mid-century, as development proceeds more slowly.

  9. Estimation of normalized point-source sensitivity of segment surface specifications for extremely large telescopes.

    PubMed

    Seo, Byoung-Joon; Nissly, Carl; Troy, Mitchell; Angeli, George; Bernier, Robert; Stepp, Larry; Williams, Eric

    2013-06-20

    We present a method which estimates the normalized point-source sensitivity (PSSN) of a segmented telescope when only information from a single segment surface is known. The estimation principle is based on a statistical approach with an assumption that all segment surfaces have the same power spectral density (PSD) as the given segment surface. As presented in this paper, the PSSN based on this statistical approach represents a worst-case scenario among statistical random realizations of telescopes when all segment surfaces have the same PSD. Therefore, this method, which we call the vendor table, is expected to be useful for individual segment specification such as the segment polishing specification. The specification based on the vendor table can be directly related to a science metric such as PSSN and provides the mirror vendors significant flexibility by specifying a single overall PSSN value for them to meet. We build a vendor table for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) and test it using multiple mirror samples from various mirror vendors to prove its practical utility. Accordingly, TMT has a plan to adopt this vendor table for its M1 segment final mirror polishing requirement. PMID:23842151

  10. Response of ice caves to weather extremes in the southeastern Alps, Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colucci, R. R.; Fontana, D.; Forte, E.; Potleca, M.; Guglielmin, M.

    2016-05-01

    High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesser-known portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature < 3 °C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0 °C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

  11. Estimating statistics of European wet and dry spells and associated precipitation extremes - interannual variability and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Belyaev, K.; Gulev, S.; Koltermann, K. P.

    2013-12-01

    Probability distributions of the durations of wet and dry spells were modeled by applying truncated geometric distribution. It has been also extended to the fractional truncated geometric distribution which allows for the discrimination between the roles of a changing number of wet days and of a regrouping of wet and dry days in forming synoptic structure of precipitation. Analyses were performed using 2 collections of daily rain gauge data namely ECA (about 1000 stations) and regional German DWD network (more than 6000 stations) for the period from 1950 to 2009. Wet spells exhibit a statistically significant lengthening over northern Europe and central European Russia, which is especially pronounced in winter when the mean duration of wet periods increased by 15%-20%. In summer wet spells become shorter over Scandinavia and northern Russia. The duration of dry spells decreases over Scandinavia and southern Europe in both winter and summer. Climate tendencies in extreme wet and dry spell durations may not necessarily follow those in mean characteristics. The changing numbers of wet days cannot explain the long-term variability in the duration of wet and dry periods. The observed changes are mainly due to the regrouping of wet and dry days. The tendencies in duration of wet and dry spells have been analyzed for a number of European areas. Over the Netherlands both wet and dry periods are extended in length during the cold and the warm season. A simultaneous shortening of wet and dry periods is found in southern Scandinavia in summer. Over France and central southern Europe during both winter and summer and over the Scandinavian Atlantic coast in summer, opposite tendencies in the duration of wet and dry spells were identified. Growing durations of wet spells are associated with more intense precipitation events while precipitation during shorter wet spells become weaker. Both analyses of relatively coarse resolution ECA data and high resolution DWD station network

  12. Parameter variability estimation using stochastic response surface model updating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Sheng-En; Zhang, Qiu-Hu; Ren, Wei-Xin

    2014-12-01

    From a practical point of view, uncertainties existing in structural parameters and measurements must be handled in order to provide reliable structural condition evaluations. At this moment, deterministic model updating loses its practicability and a stochastic updating procedure should be employed seeking for statistical properties of parameters and responses. Presently this topic has not been well investigated on account of its greater complexity in theoretical configuration and difficulty in inverse problem solutions after involving uncertainty analyses. Due to it, this paper attempts to develop a stochastic model updating method for parameter variability estimation. Uncertain parameters and responses are correlated through stochastic response surface models, which are actually explicit polynomial chaos expansions based on Hermite polynomials. Then by establishing a stochastic inverse problem, parameter means and standard deviations are updated in a separate and successive way. For the purposes of problem simplification and optimization efficiency, in each updating iteration stochastic response surface models are reconstructed to avoid the construction and analysis of sensitivity matrices. Meanwhile, in the interest of investigating the effects of parameter variability on responses, a parameter sensitivity analysis method has been developed based on the derivation of polynomial chaos expansions. Lastly the feasibility and reliability of the proposed methods have been validated using a numerical beam and then a set of nominally identical metal plates. After comparing with a perturbation method, it is found that the proposed method can estimate parameter variability with satisfactory accuracy and the complexity of the inverse problem can be highly reduced resulting in cost-efficient optimization.

  13. Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events

    PubMed Central

    Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Kellner, James R.; Forde, Alexander J.; Gruner, Daniel S.; Parker, John D.; Rodriguez, Wilfrid; Feller, Ilka C.

    2014-01-01

    Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of “extreme” cold events (days colder than −4 °C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems. PMID:24379379

  14. Responses of periphyton morphology, structure, and function to extreme nutrient loading.

    PubMed

    Lu, Haiying; Feng, Yanfang; Wang, Jinhua; Wu, Yonghong; Shao, Hongbo; Yang, Linzhang

    2016-07-01

    Periphyton have been widely applied in aquaculture systems, however, little information is available on how periphyton respond to such high nutrient levels in water. Thus, changes in the morphological characteristics, community structure, and metabolic function of periphyton under high eutrophic waters were evaluated. The results indicated that the morphology of periphyton was affected by increasing the nutrient concentration of water, which shifted the micromorphology of periphyton from spheriform to filamentous. The periphyton under higher water nutrient levels were able to utilize more carbon source types. Additionally, higher water nutrient levels increased the bacterial and protozoal proportions in periphyton. This study fills the gap in knowledge about the responses of periphytic communities to extremely eutrophic waters. It provides valuable information on the full understanding of the periphyton-nutrient relationship in aquaculture systems, which is beneficial for regulating the microbial species or communities in periphyton by manipulating the nutrient levels in water. PMID:27173591

  15. Characterization, parameter estimation, and aircraft response statistics of atmospheric turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mark, W. D.

    1981-01-01

    A nonGaussian three component model of atmospheric turbulence is postulated that accounts for readily observable features of turbulence velocity records, their autocorrelation functions, and their spectra. Methods for computing probability density functions and mean exceedance rates of a generic aircraft response variable are developed using nonGaussian turbulence characterizations readily extracted from velocity recordings. A maximum likelihood method is developed for optimal estimation of the integral scale and intensity of records possessing von Karman transverse of longitudinal spectra. Formulas for the variances of such parameter estimates are developed. The maximum likelihood and least-square approaches are combined to yield a method for estimating the autocorrelation function parameters of a two component model for turbulence.

  16. Optimal Colored Noise for Estimating Phase Response Curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morinaga, Kazuhiko; Miyata, Ryota; Aonishi, Toru

    2015-09-01

    The phase response curve (PRC) is an important measure representing the interaction between oscillatory elements. To understand synchrony in biological systems, many research groups have sought to measure PRCs directly from biological cells including neurons. Ermentrout et al. and Ota et al. showed that PRCs can be identified through measurement of white-noise spike-triggered averages. The disadvantage of this method is that one has to collect more than ten-thousand spikes to ensure the accuracy of the estimate. In this paper, to achieve a more accurate estimation of PRCs with a limited sample size, we use colored noise, which has recently drawn attention because of its unique effect on dynamical systems. We numerically show that there is an optimal colored noise to estimate PRCs in the most rigorous fashion.

  17. Acute response of airway muscle to extreme temperature includes disruption of actin-myosin interaction.

    PubMed

    Dyrda, Peter; Tazzeo, Tracy; DoHarris, Lindsay; Nilius, Berndt; Roman, Horia Nicolae; Lauzon, Anne-Marie; Aziz, Tariq; Lukic, Dusan; Janssen, Luke J

    2011-02-01

    Despite the emerging use of bronchial thermoplasty in asthma therapy, the response of airway smooth muscle (ASM) to extreme temperatures is unknown. We investigated the immediate effects of exposing ASM to supraphysiologic temperatures. Isometric contractions were studied in bovine ASM before and after exposure to various thermal loads and/or pharmacologic interventions. Actin-myosin interactions were investigated using a standard in vitro motility assay. We found steep thermal sensitivity for isometric contractions evoked by acetylcholine, with threshold and complete inhibition at less than 50°C and greater than 55°C, respectively. Contractile responses to serotonin or KCl were similarly affected, whereas isometric relaxations evoked by the nitric oxide donor S-nitrosyl-N-acetylpenicillamine or the β-agonist isoproterenol were unaffected. This thermal sensitivity developed within 15 minutes, but did not evolve further over the course of several days (such a rapid time-course rules out heat shock proteins, apoptosis, autophagy, and necrosis). Although heat-sensitive transient receptor potential (TRPV2) channels and the calmodulin-dependent (Cam) kinase-II-induced inactivation of myosin light chain kinase are both acutely thermally sensitive, with a temperature producing half-maximal effect (T(1/2)) of 52.5°C, the phenomenon we describe was not prevented by blockers of TRPV2 channels (e.g., ruthenium red, gadolinium, zero-Ca(2+) or zero-Na(+)/zero-Ca(2+) media, and cromakalim) or of Cam kinase-II (e.g., W7, trifluoperazine, and KN-93). However, direct measurements of actin-myosin interactions showed the same steep thermal profile. The functional changes preceded any histologic evidence of necrosis or apoptosis. We conclude that extreme temperatures (such as those used in bronchial thermoplasty) directly disrupt actin-myosin interactions, likely through a denaturation of the motor protein, leading to an immediate loss of ASM cell function. PMID:20395634

  18. Temporal Treatment of a Thermal Response for Defect Depth Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Plotnikov, Y. A.; Winfree, W. P.

    2004-01-01

    Transient thermography, which employs pulse surface heating of an inspected component followed by acquisition of the thermal decay stage, is gaining wider acceptance as a result of its remoteness and rapidness. Flaws in the component s material may induce a thermal contrast in surface thermograms. An important issue in transient thermography is estimating the depth of a subsurface flaw from the thermal response. This improves the quantitative ability of the thermal evaluation: from one scan it is possible to locate regions of anomalies in thickness (caused by corrosion) and estimate the implications of the flaw on the integrity of the structure. Our research focuses on thick composite aircraft components. A long square heating pulse and several minutes observation period are required to receive an adequate thermal response from such a component. Application of various time-related informative parameters of the thermal response for depth estimation is discussed. A three-dimensional finite difference model of heat propagation in solids in Cartesian coordinates is used to simulate the thermographic process. Typical physical properties of polymer graphite composites are assumed for the model.

  19. Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2016-01-01

    A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

  20. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Frome, E.L.; DuFrain, R.J.

    1986-03-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The lymphocytes are exposed to low-LET radiation, and the resulting dicentric chromosome aberrations follow the Poisson distribution. The expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been presented by Kellerer and Rossi (1972, Current Topics on Radiation Research Quarterly 8, 85-158; 1978, Radiation Research 75, 471-488) using the theory of dual radiation action. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting dose-time-response models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general-purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described, and estimation for the nonlinear models is illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  1. A Phisically Based Model of Runoff Generation For Estimating Extreme Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchment, L. S.; Gelfan, A. N.; Demidov, V. N.

    The model is based on the finite-element schematization of river basin and includes the description of the following hydrological processes: snow cover formation and snowmelt, freezing and thawing of soil, vertical soil moisture transfer and evapotran- spiration, water retention in basin storage, overland and channel flow. Stochastic sub- grid variations of snow cover and saturated hydraulic conductivity are taken into ac- count. The inputs of the model are precipitation measurements, daily air temperature, and daily air humidity deficit. The model simulates the snowmelt and rainfall runoff generation processes continuously during whole year. The case-study was carried out for the Seim River basin (the catchment area is 7460 km2). For calibration and veri- fication of the model, the 20-years hydrometeorological measurements were used (5 parameters were calibrated). The model was applied for estimation of the probable maximum snowmelt and rainfall floods as well as for assessment of exceedance prob- abilities of the flood peak discharges.To calculate the exceedance probabilities, 10000 random series of meteorological inputs were constructed with aid of the stochastic models of these inputs and the Monte-Carlo procedure. The calculated exceedance probabilities of the flood peak discharges were compared with ones calculated using 61-years runoff data. The good correspondence of the measured and calculated values was obtained.

  2. A Multivariate Statistical Approach based on a Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) Generator for Estimating the Frequency of Extreme Storm Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, N. Z.; Gao, S.

    2015-12-01

    Challenges of fully considering the complexity among spatially and temporally varied rainfall always exist in flood frequency analysis. Conventional approaches that simplify the complexity of spatiotemporal interactions generally undermine their impacts on flood risks. A previously developed stochastic storm generator called Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) aims to address the highly-dependent nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and movement of the storm. The authors utilize a multivariate statistical approach based on DMS to estimate the occurrence probability or frequency of extreme storm events. Fifteen years of radar rainfall data is used to generate a large number of synthetic storms as basis for statistical assessment. Two parametric retrieval algorithms are developed to recognize rain cells and track storm motions respectively. The resulted parameters are then used to establish probability density functions (PDFs), which are fitted to parametric distribution functions for further Monte Carlo simulations. Consequently, over 1,000,000 synthetic storms are generated based on twelve retrieved parameters for integrated risk assessment and ensemble forecasts. Furthermore, PDFs for parameters are used to calculate joint probabilities based on 2-dimensional Archimedean-Copula functions to determine the occurrence probabilities of extreme events. The approach is validated on the Upper Trinity River watershed and the generated results are compared with those from traditional rainfall frequency studies (i.e. Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, and Areal Reduction Factors).

  3. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

    PubMed

    Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-26

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  4. Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

    PubMed Central

    Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  5. Method of estimating pulse response using an impedance spectrum

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, John L; Morrison, William H; Christophersen, Jon P; Motloch, Chester G

    2014-10-21

    Electrochemical Impedance Spectrum data are used to predict pulse performance of an energy storage device. The impedance spectrum may be obtained in-situ. A simulation waveform includes a pulse wave with a period greater than or equal to the lowest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Fourier series coefficients of the pulse train can be obtained. The number of harmonic constituents in the Fourier series are selected so as to appropriately resolve the response, but the maximum frequency should be less than or equal to the highest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Using a current pulse as an example, the Fourier coefficients of the pulse are multiplied by the impedance spectrum at corresponding frequencies to obtain Fourier coefficients of the voltage response to the desired pulse. The Fourier coefficients of the response are then summed and reassembled to obtain the overall time domain estimate of the voltage using the Fourier series analysis.

  6. Estimated operator exposure for hand holding portable X-ray units during imaging of the equine distal extremity.

    PubMed

    Tyson, Reid; Smiley, Douglas C; Pleasant, Robert S; Daniel, Gregory B

    2011-01-01

    Hand holding of portable X-ray units is common in large animal ambulatory veterinary practice. Portable X-ray equipment manuals, veterinary teaching institutions, and state regulations discourage, or prohibit, hand holding of portable X-ray units. Our goal was to quantify surface radiation leakage of a typical portable X-ray unit and to measure operator exposure at simulated hand and collar positions during imaging of the equine distal extremity. Each exposure for the study was performed at 80 kVp and 7.5 mAs and repeated 10 times. Measurement of tube radiation leakage was performed along each surface of the portable X-ray unit. To determine the operator exposure more accurately, an equine cadaver limb was used to generate scatter radiation for the following views: lateral carpus, lateral foot, palmaroproximal-palmarodistal, and dorsal 60° proximal-palmarodistal obliques of the navicular region. A Pancake Ion Chamber was placed at the handle and at simulated collar position to record estimated occupational exposure. To estimate the effect of lead shielding, exposure measurements were performed within the primary beam and behind a 0.5 mm lead equivalent apron and within an >0.5 mm lead equivalent glove. The average hand and collar dose was 0.471 and 0.327 mR/exposure, respectively. The lead apron and glove attenuated the primary beam 96.9 and 99.2%, respectively. This reduced average hand and collar exposures to 0.0038 and 0.0101 mR/exposure, respectively. Theoretical occupational limits are reached for the collar (whole body) before the hand (extremity). PMID:21388461

  7. Ultramarathon is an outstanding model for the study of adaptive responses to extreme load and stress.

    PubMed

    Millet, Grégoire P; Millet, Guillaume Y

    2012-01-01

    Ultramarathons comprise any sporting event involving running longer than the traditional marathon length of 42.195 km (26.2 miles). Studies on ultramarathon participants can investigate the acute consequences of ultra-endurance exercise on inflammation and cardiovascular or renal consequences, as well as endocrine/energetic aspects, and examine the tissue recovery process over several days of extreme physical load. In a study published in BMC Medicine, Schütz et al. followed 44 ultramarathon runners over 4,487 km from South Italy to North Cape, Norway (the Trans Europe Foot Race 2009) and recorded daily sets of data from magnetic resonance imaging, psychometric, body composition and biological measurements. The findings will allow us to better understand the timecourse of degeneration/regeneration of some lower leg tissues such as knee joint cartilage, to differentiate running-induced from age-induced pathologies (for example, retropatelar arthritis) and finally to assess the interindividual susceptibility to injuries. Moreover, it will also provide new information about the complex interplay between cerebral adaptations/alterations and hormonal influences resulting from endurance exercise and provide data on the dose-response relationship between exercise and brain structure/function. Overall, this study represents a unique attempt to investigate the limits of the adaptive response of human bodies.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/78. PMID:22812424

  8. Chloroform: exposure estimation, hazard characterization, and exposure-response analysis.

    PubMed

    Meek, M E; Beauchamp, R; Long, G; Moir, D; Turner, L; Walker, M

    2002-01-01

    Chloroform has been assessed as a Priority Substance under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. The general population in Canada is exposed to chloroform principally through inhalation of indoor air, particularly during showering, and through ingestion of tap water. Data on concentrations of chloroform in various media were sufficient to serve as the basis for development of deterministic and probabilistic estimates of exposure for the general population in Canada. On the basis of data acquired principally in studies in experimental animals, chloroform causes hepatic and renal tumors in mice and renal tumors in rats. The weight of evidence indicates that chloroform is likely carcinogenic only at concentrations that induce the obligatory precursor lesions of cytotoxicity and proliferative regenerative response. Since this cytotoxicity is primarily related to rates of formation of reactive, oxidative metabolites, dose response has been characterized in the context of rates of formation of reactive metabolites in the target tissue. Results presented here are from a "hybrid" physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) animal model that was revised to permit its extension to humans. The relevant measure of exposure response, namely, the mean rate of metabolism in humans associated with a 5% increase in tumor risk (TC05), was estimated on the basis of this PBPK model and compared with tissue dose measures resulting from 24-h multimedia exposure scenarios for Canadians based on midpoint and 95th percentiles for concentrations in outdoor air, indoor air, air in the shower compartment, air in the bathroom after showering, tap water, and food. Nonneoplastic effects observed most consistently at lowest concentrations or doses following repeated exposures of rats and mice to chloroform are cytotoxicity and regenerative proliferation. As for cancer, target organs are the liver and kidney. In addition, chloroform has induced nasal lesions in rats and mice exposed by both

  9. Model test evaluation of a frequency-domain procedure for extreme surge response prediction of tension leg platforms

    SciTech Connect

    Botelho, D.L.R.; Finnigan, T.D.; Liu, S.V.; Petrauskas, C.

    1984-05-01

    A frequency-domain procedure for the extreme surge response prediction of tension leg platforms (TLP) under waves and current loading is presented and evaluated. The procedure incorporates both first- and second-order viscous and potential (inviscid) effects. The evaluation is based on results of hydrodynamic tests performed on a 1/60 scale model of a TLP. The tests were specifically designed to quantify the wave current interaction effects on surge. Therefore, the TLP model was tested under currents only (simulated by towing), waves only, and combined waves and current. The procedure is shown to perform well for predicting the extreme response in random waves and current except when groups of large waves are present. In this case, the extreme response is underpredicted. Areas in which this situation can be improved are identified.

  10. Parameter estimation of multiple item response profile model.

    PubMed

    Cho, Sun-Joo; Partchev, Ivailo; De Boeck, Paul

    2012-11-01

    Multiple item response profile (MIRP) models are models with crossed fixed and random effects. At least one between-person factor is crossed with at least one within-person factor, and the persons nested within the levels of the between-person factor are crossed with the items within levels of the within-person factor. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of models for binary data with crossed random effects is challenging. This is because the marginal likelihood does not have a closed form, so that MLE requires numerical or Monte Carlo integration. In addition, the multidimensional structure of MIRPs makes the estimation complex. In this paper, three different estimation methods to meet these challenges are described: the Laplace approximation to the integrand; hierarchical Bayesian analysis, a simulation-based method; and an alternating imputation posterior with adaptive quadrature as the approximation to the integral. In addition, this paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of these three estimation methods for MIRPs. The three algorithms are compared in a real data application and a simulation study was also done to compare their behaviour. PMID:22070786

  11. Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borga, Marco; Stoffel, Markus; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Jakob, Matthias

    2014-10-01

    Flash floods and debris flows develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems for rainfall, streamflow and sediment discharge are not able to monitor. Consequently, the atmospheric, hydrological and geomorphic controls on these hydrogeomorphic processes are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain warning and risk management. On the other hand, remote sensing of precipitation and numerical weather predictions have become the basis of several flood forecasting systems, enabling increasingly accurate detection of hazardous events. The objective of this paper is to provide a review on current European and international research on early warning systems for flash floods and debris flows. We expand upon these themes by identifying: (a) the state of the art; (b) knowledge gaps; and (c) suggested research directions to advance warning capabilities for extreme hydrogeomorphic processes. We also suggest three areas in which advancements in science will have immediate and important practical consequence, namely development of rainfall estimation and nowcasting schemes suited to the specific space-time scales, consolidating physical, engineering and social datasets of flash floods and debris-flows, integration of methods for multiple hydrogeomorphic hazard warning.

  12. Investigating extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate in the Chinese monsoonal zone: A palaeoflood case study from the Hanjiang River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Yongqiang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Zhou, Yali; Wang, Longsheng; Zhang, Yuzhu; Hu, Guiming

    2015-06-01

    Palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits (SWDs) were investigated extensively by sedimentological criteria of palaeohydrology along the upper Hanjiang River valley. Modern flood SWDs were collected for comparison with palaeoflood SWD in the same reaches. Three typical palaeoflood SWDs were observed within Holocene loess-soil blanket on the first river terrace land. The grain size distributions of palaeoflood SWDs are similar to modern flood SWDs, whereas they are different from eolian loess and soil. Palaeoflood SWD lies in three major pedo-stratigraphic boundaries (TS/L0, L0/S0, and S0/Lt) in the Holocene loess-soil profiles. The chronology of three palaeoflood episodes was established by OSL dating and pedo-stratigraphic correlation with the well-dated Holocene loess-soil profiles in the upper Hanjiang River basin. Holocene palaeoflood events were dated to 9500-8500, 3200-2800, and 1800-1700 a B.P., respectively. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated by the palaeoflood model (i.e., slope-area method and step-backwater method). The highest discharges are 51,680-53,950 m3 s- 1 at the 11,500-time scale in the Xunyang reach of the upper Hanjiang River valley. Holocene extraordinary hydroclimatic events in the Hanjiang River often result from abnormal atmospheric circulations from Southwest monsoons in the Chinese monsoonal zone. These results provide a regional expression of extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate to understand the effects of global climatic variations on the river system dynamics.

  13. Response of conservation measures from small cultivated watersheds, concerning runoff and erosion, under the impact of extreme rainfall events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popa, N.

    2008-11-01

    The study has been made in a representative small watershed with gently to hilly slopes from Tutova Rolling Hills, Romania. The system of conservation measures is represented by stripcroping, bufferstrips, bench terraces, a grassed waterway and a drainage network. The monitoring of hydrological response of agricultural units has been made in two cross sections corresponding to each of the land use type by means of two concrete triangular weirs. The most important soil losses were caused by three extreme rainfall events from August 2004, May 2005 and September 2007. At the date of the first rainfall event, the soil was generally very well protected against erosion by the vegetative cover, excepting parcels that were just ploughed after the mash crop. In that case, it was estimated that the value of soil losses ranged between 20.0 and 24.5 t/ha while for the other crops like corn and soybean, soil losses they were 1.0-1.5 t/ha and 0.5-0.8 t/ha respectively. Damages caused by the rainfall from September 2007 were much more important because at that time about 30% from the entire surface was just prepared for rape seeding. Maximum value of erosion was 95 t/ha on a parcel with 16% slope and 50m length along the slope.

  14. Limited information estimation of the diffusion-based item response theory model for responses and response times.

    PubMed

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2016-05-01

    Psychological tests are usually analysed with item response models. Recently, some alternative measurement models have been proposed that were derived from cognitive process models developed in experimental psychology. These models consider the responses but also the response times of the test takers. Two such models are the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model. Both models can be calibrated with the diffIRT package of the R statistical environment via marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation. In this manuscript, an alternative approach to model calibration is proposed. The approach is based on weighted least squares estimation and parallels the standard estimation approach in structural equation modelling. Estimates are determined by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed and the implied covariance matrix. The estimator is simple to implement, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. Least squares estimation also provides a test of model fit by comparing the observed and implied covariance matrix. The estimator and the test of model fit are evaluated in a simulation study. Although parameter recovery is good, the estimator is less efficient than the MML estimator. PMID:26853083

  15. Estimating Hemodynamic Responses to the Wingate Test Using Thoracic Impedance

    PubMed Central

    Astorino, Todd A.; Bovee, Curtis; DeBoe, Ashley

    2015-01-01

    Techniques including direct Fick and Doppler echocardiography are frequently used to assess hemodynamic responses to exercise. Thoracic impedance has been shown to be a noninvasive alternative to these methods for assessing these responses during graded exercise to exhaustion, yet its feasibility during supramaximal bouts of exercise is relatively unknown. We used thoracic impedance to estimate stroke volume (SV) and cardiac output (CO) during the Wingate test (WAnT) and compared these values to those from graded exercise testing (GXT). Active men (n = 9) and women (n = 7) (mean age = 24.8 ± 5.9 yr) completed two Wingate tests and two graded exercise tests on a cycle ergometer. During exercise, heart rate (HR), SV, and CO were continuously estimated using thoracic impedance. Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to identify potential differences in hemodynamic responses across protocols. Results: Maximal SV (138.6 ± 37.4 mL vs. 135.6 ± 26.9 mL) and CO (24.5 ± 6.1 L·min-1 vs. 23.7 ± 5.1 L·min-1) were similar (p > 0.05) between repeated Wingate tests. Mean maximal HR was higher (p < 0.01) for GXT (185 ± 7 b·min-1) versus WAnT (177 ± 11 b·min-1), and mean SV was higher in response to WAnT (137.1 ± 32.1 mL) versus GXT (123.0 ± 32.0 mL), leading to similar maximal cardiac output between WAnT and GXT (23.9 ± 5.6 L·min-1 vs. 22.5 ± 6.0 L·min-1). Our data show no difference in hemodynamic responses in response to repeated administrations of the Wingate test. In addition, the Wingate test elicits similar cardiac output compared to progressive cycling to VO2max. Key points Measurement of cardiac output (CO), the rate of oxygen transport delivered by the heart to skeletal muscle, is not widely-employed in Exercise Physiology due to the level of difficulty and invasiveness characteristic of most techniques used to measure this variable. Nevertheless, thoracic impedance has been shown to provide a noninvasive and simpler approach to continuously

  16. Controls on coastal dune morphology, shoreline erosion and barrier island response to extreme storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Houser, C.; Hapke, C.; Hamilton, S.

    2008-01-01

    The response of a barrier island to an extreme storm depends in part on the surge elevation relative to the height and extent of the foredunes which can exhibit considerable variability alongshore. While it is recognized that alongshore variations in dune height and width direct barrier island response to storm surge, the underlying causes of the alongshore variation remain poorly understood. This study examines the alongshore variation in dune morphology along a 11??km stretch of Santa Rosa Island in northwest Florida and relates the variation in morphology to the response of the island during Hurricane Ivan and historic and storm-related rates of shoreline erosion. The morphology of the foredune and backbarrier dunes was characterized before and after Hurricane Ivan using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and related through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The height and extent of the foredune, and the presence and relative location of the backbarrier dunes, varied alongshore at discrete length scales (of ~ 750, 1450 and 4550??m) that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Cospectral analysis suggests that the variation in dune morphology is correlated with transverse ridges on the inner-shelf, the backbarrier cuspate headlands, and the historical and storm-related trends in shoreline change. Sections of the coast with little to no dune development before Hurricane Ivan were observed in the narrowest portions of the island (between headlands), west of the transverse ridges. Overwash penetration tended to be larger in these areas and island breaching was common, leaving the surface close to the watertable and covered by a lag of shell and gravel. In contrast, large foredunes and the backbarrier dunes were observed at the widest sections of the island (the cuspate headlands) and at crest of the transverse ridges. Due to the large dunes and the presence of the backbarrier dunes, these areas experienced less overwash penetration

  17. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Mason, Matthew S.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical

  18. The Fire-Walker’s High: Affect and Physiological Responses in an Extreme Collective Ritual

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual. PMID:24586315

  19. The fire-walker's high: affect and physiological responses in an extreme collective ritual.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual. PMID:24586315

  20. Multi-trophic level response to extreme metal contamination from gold mining in a subarctic lake.

    PubMed

    Thienpont, Joshua R; Korosi, Jennifer B; Hargan, Kathryn E; Williams, Trisha; Eickmeyer, David C; Kimpe, Linda E; Palmer, Michael J; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

    2016-08-17

    Giant Mine, located in the city of Yellowknife (Northwest Territories, Canada), is a dramatic example of subarctic legacy contamination from mining activities, with remediation costs projected to exceed $1 billion. Operational between 1948 and 2004, gold extraction at Giant Mine released large quantities of arsenic and metals from the roasting of arsenopyrite ore. We examined the long-term ecological effects of roaster emissions on Pocket Lake, a small lake at the edge of the Giant Mine lease boundary, using a spectrum of palaeoenvironmental approaches. A dated sedimentary profile tracked striking increases (approx. 1700%) in arsenic concentrations coeval with the initiation of Giant Mine operations. Large increases in mercury, antimony and lead also occurred. Synchronous changes in biological indicator assemblages from multiple aquatic trophic levels, in both benthic and pelagic habitats, indicate dramatic ecological responses to extreme metal(loid) contamination. At the peak of contamination, all Cladocera, a keystone group of primary consumers, as well as all planktonic diatoms, were functionally lost from the sediment record. No biological recovery has been inferred, despite the fact that the bulk of metal(loid) emissions occurred more than 50 years ago, and the cessation of all ore-roasting activities in Yellowknife in 1999. PMID:27534958

  1. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agro-ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter-early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments: cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in seed germination in both W and M treatments and a delay in germination for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co.

  2. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.

  3. The Mediterranean Benthic Herbivores Show Diverse Responses to Extreme Storm Disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Pagès, Jordi F.; Gera, Alessandro; Romero, Javier; Farina, Simone; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Hereu, Bernat; Alcoverro, Teresa

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic storms have been observed to be one of the major elements in shaping the standing structure of marine benthic ecosystems. Yet, little is known about the effect of catastrophic storms on ecosystem processes. Specifically, herbivory is the main control mechanism of macrophyte communities in the Mediterranean, with two main key herbivores: the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the fish Sarpa salpa. Consequently, the effects of extreme storm events on these two herbivores (at the population level and on their behaviour) may be critical for the functioning of the ecosystem. With the aim of filling this gap, we took advantage of two parallel studies that were conducted before, during and after an unexpected catastrophic storm event. Specifically, fish and sea urchin abundance were assessed before and after the storm in monitored fixed areas (one site for sea urchin assessment and 3 sites for fish visual transects). Additionally, we investigated the behavioural response to the disturbance of S. salpa fishes that had been tagged with acoustic transmitters. Given their low mobility, sea urchins were severely affected by the storm (ca. 50% losses) with higher losses in those patches with a higher density of sea urchins. This may be due to a limited availability of refuges within each patch. In contrast, fish abundance was not affected, as fish were able to move to protected areas (i.e. deeper) as a result of the high mobility of this species. Our results highlight that catastrophic storms differentially affect the two dominant macroherbivores of rocky macroalgal and seagrass systems due to differences in mobility and escaping strategies. This study emphasises that under catastrophic disturbances, the presence of different responses among the key herbivores of the system may be critical for the maintenance of the herbivory function. PMID:23667512

  4. Oscillation Responses to an Extreme Weather Event from a Deep Moored Observing System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; Dimarco, S. F.; Stoessel, M. M.; Zhang, X.; Ingle, S.

    2011-12-01

    In June 2007 tropical Cyclone Gonu passed directly over an ocean observing system consisting of four, deep autonomous mooring stations along the 3000 m isobath in the northern Arabian Sea. Gonu was the largest cyclone known to have occurred in the Arabian Sea or to strike the Arabian Peninsula. The mooring system was designed by Lighthouse R & D Enterprises, Inc. and installed in cooperation with the Oman Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Wealth. The instruments on the moorings continuously recorded water velocities, temperature, conductivity, pressure, dissolved oxygen and turbidity at multiple depths and at hourly intervals during the storm. Near-inertial oscillations at all moorings from thermocline to seafloor are coincident with the arrival of Gonu. Sub-inertial oscillations with periods of 2-10 days are recorded at the post-storm relaxation stage of Gonu, primarily in the thermocline. These oscillations consist of warm, saline water masses, likely originating from the Persian Gulf. Prominent 12.7-day sub-inertial waves, measured at a station ~300 km offshore, are bottom-intensified and have characteristics of baroclinic, topographically-trapped waves. Theoretical results from a topographically-trapped wave model are in a good agreement with the observed 12.7-day waves. The wavelength of the 12.7-day waves is about 590 km calculated from the dispersion relationship. Further analysis suggests that a resonant standing wave is responsible for trapping the 12.7-day wave energy inside the Sea of Oman basin. The observational results reported here are the first measurements of deepwater responses to a tropical cyclone in the Sea of Oman/Arabian Sea. Our study demonstrates the utility of sustained monitoring for studying the impact of extreme weather events on the ocean.

  5. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Frome, E.L; DuFrain, R.J.

    1983-10-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between the yield of dicentric chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The dicentric yields follow the Poisson distribution, and the expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose for low LET radiation. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been obtained by Kellerer and Rossi using the theory of dual radiation action. The yield of elementary lesions is kappa(..gamma..d + g(t, tau)d/sup 2/), where t is the time and d is dose. The coefficient of the d/sup 2/ term is determined by the recovery function and the temporal mode of irradiation. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described and illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  6. Soliciting Feedback from Resource Managers to Inform Response to Extreme Event Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bedsworth, L. W.

    2014-12-01

    To date, extreme events have been defined by scientists through a top-down approach, relying on observations for current extremes and climate model projections based on future scenarios for their expected changes. These abstract definitions of extreme events are based on a corresponding characterization of what is "normal" and perhaps the choice of a threshold (e.g., a percentile of a historical distribution for a given climate variable), beyond which would represent an extreme event. However, there are not necessarily direct connections between these definitions and what is considered "extreme" in terms of impacts that challenge resource management. Several researchers have suggested that extreme event definitions would also be informed by input from on-the-ground resource managers who are familiar with the systems being impacted, the climate conditions that pose risks to those systems, and their resilience and adaptive capacity. This research will present preliminary survey work designed to solicit input from air and water quality managers in terms of what is considered an extreme event, how these events have been weathered in the past, and planned for in the future. The survey is based on literature review, interviews with air and water quality managers in California, and outreach to the scientific community. This work is the first step of a multistage research effort to link input from resource managers with scientific information to better inform air and water quality management and impacts of extreme events under a changing climate.

  7. Deciphering landscape complexity to predict (non)linear responses to extreme climatic events

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme events are increasing in frequency and magnitude for many landscapes globally. Ecologically, most of the focus on extreme climatic events has been on effects of either short-term pulses (floods, freezes) or long-term drought. Multi-year increases in precipitation are also occurring with litt...

  8. Extreme Response Style in Recurrent and Chronically Depressed Patients: Change with Antidepressant Administration and Stability during Continuation Treatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Timothy J.; Feldman, Greg; Harley, Rebecca; Fresco, David M.; Graves, Lesley; Holmes, Avram; Bogdan, Ryan; Papakostas, George I.; Bohn, Laurie; Lury, R. Alana; Fava, Maurizio; Segal, Zindel V.

    2007-01-01

    The authors examined extreme response style in recurrently and chronically depressed patients, assessing its role in therapeutic outcome. During the acute phase, outpatients with major depressive disorder (N = 384) were treated with fluoxetine for 8 weeks. Remitted patients (n = 132) entered a continuation phase during which their fluoxetine dose…

  9. Analysis of the mechanical response of extreme ultraviolet lithography masks during electrostatic chucking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nataraju, Madhura

    Stringent flatness requirements have been imposed for the front and back surfaces of Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUVL) masks to ensure successful pattern transfer that satisfies the image placement error budget. During exposure an electrostatic chuck will be used to support and flatten the mask. The EUVL Mask and Chucking Standards, SEMI P-37 and SEMI P-40, specify the flatness of the two mask surfaces as well as the chucking surface to be within about 50 nm peak-to-valley. It is critical that the electrostatic chucking process and its effect on mask flatness be well-understood. The principal objective of this thesis is to develop a model that predicts the electrostatic chucking response of masks and the resulting flatness of the pattern surface using FE techniques and to validate this model with chucking experiments. Studies are performed to evaluate the definition of flatness as given in the SEMI standards and a more efficient representation is suggested. Classical plate theory is used to illustrate the effect of chuck thickness and stiffness on the chucking response of masks. A basic FE model is developed to demonstrate that the sum of the chuck shape and thickness variation of the mask are crucial to the response of the mask during chucking. FE models are also developed to model clamping using a bipolar Coulombic pin chuck used for this research. The initial geometry of the mask and chuck surfaces are created using interferometric flatness data. Chucking is simulated by the application of forces between the mask backside and the chuck surface. The final pattern surface shape is compared with experimental electrostatic chucking results. An experimental set-up is developed to validate the FE model predictions. This consists of a Zygo interferometer mounted on top of an optical table, inside a cleanroom, with the chuck and mask placed inside a vacuum chamber. Once the voltage is turned on, the pattern surface nonflatness is measured using the interferometer

  10. Evaluating environmental joint extremes for the offshore industry using the conditional extremes model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewans, Kevin; Jonathan, Philip

    2014-02-01

    Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore structures is fundamental in determining the design loads. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity, and a floating system responds in a complex way to both variables. Specification of joint extremes in design criteria has often been somewhat ad hoc, being based on fairly arbitrary combinations of extremes of variables estimated independently. Such approaches are even outlined in design guidelines. Mathematically more consistent estimates of the joint occurrence of extreme environmental variables fall into two camps in the offshore industry - response-based and response-independent. Both are outlined here, with emphasis on response-independent methods, particularly those based on the conditional extremes model recently introduced by (Heffernan and Tawn, 2004), which has a solid theoretical motivation. We illustrate an application of the conditional extremes model to joint estimation of extreme storm peak significant wave height and peak period at a northern North Sea location, incorporating storm direction as a model covariate. We also discuss joint estimation of extreme current profiles with depth off the North West Shelf of Australia. Methods such as the conditional extremes model provide valuable additions to the metocean engineer's toolkit.

  11. Response of extreme flood characteristics based on future climate change scenarios at Yermasoyia watershed, Cyprus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Gkilimanakis, Eleftherios; Loukas, Athanasios

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study which was performed within working group 4 in the FloodFreq COST Action is to assess and quantify changes in daily streamflow and subsequent flood response modelling due to potential climate change in Yermasoyia watershed, Cyprus. Eight statistical downscaling methods are used to estimate historical and future daily precipitation and temperature timeseries. Four methods are based on change factors and four are bias correction methods and these methods are used to downscale precipitation and temperature output from fifteen RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project. Several well-known lumped hydrological model structures (such as the GR4J, the IHACRES models, and the AWBM) are applied to estimate the daily streamflows. Performance of the models is evaluated with the use of fit statistics or metrics for calibration and validation periods using the split sample test. A set of flood indices are derived from the daily simulated streamflows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing the periods 1960-1990 and 2070-2100. The results show that both the magnitude and the volume of annual peakflows is decreasing fow all examined scenarios, downscaling methods and employed hydrological models.

  12. Estimation of road profile variability from measured vehicle responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fauriat, W.; Mattrand, C.; Gayton, N.; Beakou, A.; Cembrzynski, T.

    2016-05-01

    When assessing the statistical variability of fatigue loads acting throughout the life of a vehicle, the question of the variability of road roughness naturally arises, as both quantities are strongly related. For car manufacturers, gathering information on the environment in which vehicles evolve is a long and costly but necessary process to adapt their products to durability requirements. In the present paper, a data processing algorithm is proposed in order to estimate the road profiles covered by a given vehicle, from the dynamic responses measured on this vehicle. The algorithm based on Kalman filtering theory aims at solving a so-called inverse problem, in a stochastic framework. It is validated using experimental data obtained from simulations and real measurements. The proposed method is subsequently applied to extract valuable statistical information on road roughness from an existing load characterisation campaign carried out by Renault within one of its markets.

  13. Forest tree responses to extreme drought and some biotic events: Towards a selection according to hazard tolerance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bréda, Nathalie; Badeau, Vincent

    2008-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some extreme events could affect forest ecosystems. Forest tree response can be analysed using dendroecological methods, as tree-ring widths are strongly controlled by climatic or biotic events. Years with such events induce similar tree responses and are called pointer years. They can result from extreme climatic events like frost, a heat wave, spring water logging, drought or insect damage… Forest tree species showed contrasting responses to climatic hazards, depending on their sensitivity to water shortage or temperature hardening, as illustrated from our dendrochronological database. For foresters, a drought or a pest disease is an extreme event if visible and durable symptoms are induced (leaf discolouration, leaf loss, perennial organs mortality, tree dieback and mortality). These symptoms here are shown, lagging one or several years behind a climatic or biotic event, from forest decline cases in progress since the 2003 drought or attributed to previous severe droughts or defoliations in France. Tree growth or vitality recovery is illustrated, and the functional interpretation of the long lasting memory of trees is discussed. A coupled approach linking dendrochronology and ecophysiology helps in discussing vulnerability of forest stands, and suggests management advices in order to mitigate extreme drought and cope with selective mortality.

  14. Carbon Management Response curves: estimates of temporal soil carbon dynamics.

    PubMed

    West, Tristram O; Marland, Gregg; King, Anthony W; Post, Wilfred M; Jain, Atul K; Andrasko, Kenneth

    2004-04-01

    Measurement of the change in soil carbon that accompanies a change in land use (e.g., forest to agriculture) or management (e.g., conventional tillage to no-till) can be complex and expensive, may require reference plots, and is subject to the variability of statistical sampling and short-term variability in weather. In this paper, we develop Carbon Management Response (CMR) curves that could be used as an alternative to in situ measurements. The CMR curves developed here are based on quantitative reviews of existing global analyses and field observations of changes in soil carbon. The curves show mean annual rates of soil carbon change, estimated time to maximum rates of change, and estimated time to a new soil carbon steady state following the initial change in management. We illustrate how CMR curves could be used in a carbon accounting framework while effectively addressing a number of potential policy issues commonly associated with carbon accounting. We find that CMR curves provide a transparent means to account for changes in soil carbon accumulation and loss rates over time, and also provide empirical relationships that might be used in the development or validation of ecological or Earth systems models. PMID:15453404

  15. Changes in grassland ecosystem function due to extreme rainfall events: implications for responses to climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is causing measurable changes in precipitation patterns. Most climate change scenarios forecast continuing increases in extreme precipitation patterns for North American terrestrial ecosystems, manifest as larger precipitation event...

  16. General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

    2008-12-01

    The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

  17. Local mapping of detector response for reliable quantum state estimation.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Merlin; Karpiński, Michał; Smith, Brian J

    2014-01-01

    Improved measurement techniques are central to technological development and foundational scientific exploration. Quantum physics relies on detectors sensitive to non-classical features of systems, enabling precise tests of physical laws and quantum-enhanced technologies including precision measurement and secure communications. Accurate detector response calibration for quantum-scale inputs is key to future research and development in these cognate areas. To address this requirement, quantum detector tomography has been recently introduced. However, this technique becomes increasingly challenging as the complexity of the detector response and input space grow in a number of measurement outcomes and required probe states, leading to further demands on experiments and data analysis. Here we present an experimental implementation of a versatile, alternative characterization technique to address many-outcome quantum detectors that limits the input calibration region and does not involve numerical post processing. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, the calibrated detector is subsequently used to estimate non-classical photon number states. PMID:25019300

  18. Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extreme summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

    2014-10-01

    The importance and consequences of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. In the summer of 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, there were unusually high air temperatures (the fifth warmest summer over a 65-year period) and record low precipitation (the lowest over a 65-year period). These abnormal conditions were associated with substantial desiccation of the Sphagnum layer and a reduced net Sphagnum CO2 sink but did not affect net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this wet-sedge arctic tundra ecosystem. Microbial biomass, NH4+ availability, gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were generally greater during this extreme summer. The cumulative ecosystem CO2 sink in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, suggesting that vascular plants were able to compensate for Sphagnum CO2 uptake, despite the impact on other functions and structure such as desiccation of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem CO2 sink over a five summer record (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer (~70% lower), directly following the unusually warm and dry summer, rather than during the extreme summer. This sink reduction cannot solely be attributed to the potential damage to mosses, which typically contribute ~40% of the entire ecosystem CO2 sink. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative CO2 sink occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggests a substantial resilience of this tundra ecosystem to at least an isolated extreme event. Overall, these results show a complex response of the CO2 sink and its sub-components to atypically warm and dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events requires further investigation.

  19. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    PubMed Central

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere 1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions 1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., 1,3–5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts 3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21st century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. PMID:24015153

  20. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-04-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs , , , ), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate-change impacts. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline.

  1. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming.

    PubMed

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-04-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere (1,2), raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions (1,3). Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., (1,3-5)), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts (3,6,7). We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21(st) century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. PMID:24015153

  2. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2012-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.

  3. Materials response under extreme conditions: a path to materials science above 1000 GPa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remington, Bruce

    2005-07-01

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures (10-100 GPa) and strain rates (1.e6 -- 1.e8 1/s) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. [1] A quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure (shockless) drive is being developed on the Omega laser. [2] Constitutive models for solid-state strength under these conditions are tested with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples. [3] Lattice compression, phase, and temperature are deduced from extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements, from which the shock-induced alpha-omega phase transition in Ti is inferred to occur on sub-nanosec time scales. [4] Time resolved lattice response and phase can be inferred from dynamic x-ray diffraction measurements, where the elastic-plastic (1D-3D) lattice relaxation in shocked Cu is shown to occur promptly (sub-nsec). [5] Large-scale MD simulations have elucidated the microscopic dynamics that underlie the 3D lattice relaxation. [6] Deformation mechanisms, such as the slip-twinning transition in shocked single-crystal Cu, are identified by examining the residual microstructure in recovered samples. [7] Designs will be shown for reaching much higher pressures, (greater than 1000 GPa), in the solid state on the NIF laser. [8] *This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-ENG-48. [1] B.A. Remington et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2587 (2004). [2] J. Edwards et al., PRL 92, 075002 (2004). [3] K.T. Lorenz et al., PoP, in press (May, 2005). [4] B. Yaakobi et al., PRL 92, 095504 (2004). [5] A. Loveridge-Smith et al., PRL 86, 2349 (2001). [6] E.M. Bringa et al., Nature, submitted (March, 2005). [7] M.S. Schneider et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2633 (2004). [8] B.A. Remington et al., in press, ApSS 298 (July, 2005).

  4. Bioenergetic response of the extreme thermoacidophile Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses

    SciTech Connect

    Peeples, T.L.; Kelly, R.M.

    1995-06-01

    The bioenergetic response of the extremely thermoacidophilic archaeon Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses was examined. Continuous cultures (pH 2.0, 70{degrees}C, and dilution rate of 0.05h{sup {minus}1}) in which the levels of Casamino Acids and ferrous iron in growth media were reduced by a step change of 25 to 50% resulted in higher levels of several proteins. At 70{degrees}C under optimal growth conditions, M. sedula was typically found to have a {triangle}p of approximately -190 to -200{sub m}V, the result of an intracellular {sub p}H of 5.4 (extracellular {sub p}H, 2.0) and a {triangle}{Psi} of +40 to +50 {sub m}V, (positive inside). After cells had been shifted to either 80 or 85{degrees}C, {triangle}{Psi} decreased to nearly 0 {sub m}V and internal {sub p}H approached 4.0 within 4 h of the shift; respiratory activity, as evidenced by iron speciation in parallel temperature-shifted cultures on iron pyrite, had ceased by this point. If cultures shifted from ;70 to 80{degrees}C were shifted back to 70{degrees}C after 4 h, cells were able to regain pyrite oxidation capacity and internal {sub p}H increased to nearly normal levels after 13 h. However, {triangle}{Psi} remained close to 9 {sub m}V, possibly the result of enhanced ionic exchange with media upon thermal damage to cell membranes. Further, when M. sedula was subjected to an intermediate temperature shift from 73 to 79{degrees}C, an increase in pyrite dissolution (ferric iron levels doubled) over that of the unshifted control at 73{degrees}C was noted. The improvement in leaching was attributed to the synergistic effect of chemical and biological factors. As such, periodic exposure to higher temperatures, followed by a suitable recovery period, may provide a basis for improving bioleaching rates of acidophilic chemolithotrophs. 38 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Estimating Derived Response Levels at the Savannah River Site for Use with Emergency Response Models

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-12-06

    Emergency response computer models at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are coupled with real-time meteorological data to estimate dose to individuals downwind of accidental radioactive releases. Currently, these models estimate doses for inhalation and shine pathways, but do not consider dose due to ingestion of contaminated food products. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed derived intervention levels (DIL) which refer to the radionuclide-specific concentration in food present throughout the relevant period of time, with no intervention, that could lead to an individual receiving a radiation dose equal to the protective action guide. In the event of an emergency, concentrations in various food types are compared with these levels to make interdictions decisions. Prior to monitoring results being available, concentrations in the environmental media (i.e. soil), called derived response levels (DRLs), can be estimated from the DILs and directly compared with computer output to provide preliminary guidance as to whether intervention is necessary. Site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) are developed for ingestion pathways pertinent to SRS: milk, meat, fish, grain, produce, and beverage. This provides decision-makers with an additional tool for use immediately following an accident prior to the acquisition of food monitoring data.

  6. Assessing item fit for unidimensional item response theory models using residuals from estimated item response functions.

    PubMed

    Haberman, Shelby J; Sinharay, Sandip; Chon, Kyong Hee

    2013-07-01

    Residual analysis (e.g. Hambleton & Swaminathan, Item response theory: principles and applications, Kluwer Academic, Boston, 1985; Hambleton, Swaminathan, & Rogers, Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) is a popular method to assess fit of item response theory (IRT) models. We suggest a form of residual analysis that may be applied to assess item fit for unidimensional IRT models. The residual analysis consists of a comparison of the maximum-likelihood estimate of the item characteristic curve with an alternative ratio estimate of the item characteristic curve. The large sample distribution of the residual is proved to be standardized normal when the IRT model fits the data. We compare the performance of our suggested residual to the standardized residual of Hambleton et al. (Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) in a detailed simulation study. We then calculate our suggested residuals using data from an operational test. The residuals appear to be useful in assessing the item fit for unidimensional IRT models. PMID:25106393

  7. Preventing Violent Extremism and "Not in My Name": Theatrical Representation, Artistic Responsibility and Shared Vulnerability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartlett, Alice

    2011-01-01

    This paper draws on my own recent experience of local artistic engagement with the British government's counter-terrorism strategy, Prevent(ing Violent Extremism). "Not in My Name" uses verbatim theatre techniques to negotiate dialogue within and across communities around a controversial agenda, and has received national acclaim for its innovative…

  8. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  9. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

    2014-03-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  10. Dynamic Response of Watershed Subsurface Systems to Extreme Precipitation Events - Implications for the 2013 Colorado Front Range Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henning, S. R.; Ge, S.

    2015-12-01

    In September 2013, the Boulder Creek watershed (BCW) was severely affected by a 1000-year precipitation event when 17 inches of rain - nearly the annual average - fell over Boulder, Colorado, USA in just eight days. This rainfall caused an unprecedented flood within the BCW. While the enormous amount of water that fell appeared to have left within days, we hypothesize that a majority of the water that fell during the event was not discharged via surface runoff, but infiltrated into the subsurface. This study aims to understand how the subsurface responds to extreme precipitation events by quantifying the volume of precipitation that infiltrates into the vadose zone, the change in subsurface water storage, and the spatial and temporal scale of these effects as caused by extreme events. This study focuses on a small drainage basin that lies within the BCW. This site is actively monitored and provides data of importance for hydrologic modeling. The data include groundwater elevation, soil moisture, stream discharge, and precipitation records. The hydrologic structure of the basin consists of a thin, sandy soil layer that caps weathered regolith and saprolite sourced from underlying crystalline basement bedrock. We use the HYDRUS model to numerically solve the Richards equation for variably saturated flow to simulate 2D groundwater flow both below the groundwater table and in the vadose zone. Average annual precipitation values and groundwater elevation measurements are used to estimate the initial subsurface conditions prior to the event. Atmospheric boundary conditions estimated from meteorological stations are then applied to the top of the model to simulate the extreme event. Preliminary results indicate that the extreme event led to a rise in the groundwater table of up to a meter at low-lying elevations near basin drainages and up to two meters below hillslopes that persisted for over a month after the rain stopped.

  11. Bioenergetic Response of the Extreme Thermoacidophile Metallosphaera sedula to Thermal and Nutritional Stresses

    PubMed Central

    Peeples, T. L.; Kelly, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    The bioenergetic response of the extremely thermoacidophilic archaeon Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses was examined. Continuous cultures (pH 2.0, 70(deg)C, and dilution rate of 0.05 h(sup-1)) in which the levels of Casamino Acids and ferrous iron in growth media were reduced by a step change of 25 to 50% resulted in higher levels of several proteins, including a 62-kDa protein immunologically related to the molecular chaperone designated thermophilic factor 55 in Sulfolobus shibatae (J. D. Trent, J. Osipiuk, and T. Pinkau, J. Bacteriol. 172:1478-1484, 1990), on sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gels. The 62-kDa protein was also noted at elevated levels in cells that had been shifted from 70 to either 80 or 85(deg)C. The proton motive force ((Delta)p), transmembrane pH ((Delta)pH), and membrane potential ((Delta)(psi)) were determined for samples obtained from continuous cultures (pH 2.0, 70(deg)C, and dilution rate of 0.05 h(sup-1)) and incubated under nutritionally and/or thermally stressed and unstressed conditions. At 70(deg)C under optimal growth conditions, M. sedula was typically found to have a (Delta)p of approximately -190 to -200 mV, the result of an intracellular pH of 5.4 (extracellular pH, 2.0) and a (Delta)(psi) of +40 to +50 mV (positive inside). After cells had been shifted to either 80 or 85(deg)C, (Delta)(psi) decreased to nearly 0 mV and internal pH approached 4.0 within 4 h of the shift; respiratory activity, as evidenced by iron speciation in parallel temperature-shifted cultures on iron pyrite, had ceased by this point. If cultures shifted from 70 to 80(deg)C were shifted back to 70(deg)C after 4 h, cells were able to regain pyrite oxidation capacity and internal pH increased to nearly normal levels after 13 h. However, (Delta)(psi) remained close to 0 mV, possibly the result of enhanced ionic exchange with media upon thermal damage to cell membranes. Further, when M. sedula was subjected to an intermediate

  12. Upper extremity muscle tone and response of tidal volume during manually assisted breathing for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation

    PubMed Central

    Morino, Akira; Shida, Masahiro; Tanaka, Masashi; Sato, Kimihiro; Seko, Toshiaki; Ito, Shunsuke; Ogawa, Shunichi; Yokoi, Yuka; Takahashi, Naoaki

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of the present study was to examine, in patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation, if the response of tidal volume during manually assisted breathing is dependent upon both upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity of manually assisted breathing. [Subjects] We recruited 13 patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation, and assessed their upper extremity muscle tone using the modified Ashworth scale (MAS). The subjects were assigned to either the low MAS group (MAS≤2, n=7) or the high MAS group (MAS≥3, n=6). [Methods] The manually assisted breathing technique was applied at a pressure of 2 kgf and 4 kgf. A split-plot ANOVA was performed to compare the tidal volume of each pressure during manually assisted breathing between the low and the high MAS groups. [Results] Statistical analysis showed there were main effects of the upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity of the manually assisted breathing technique. There was no interaction between these factors. [Conclusion] Our findings reveal that the tidal volume during the manually assisted breathing technique for patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation depends upon the patient’s upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity. PMID:26357431

  13. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover.

    PubMed

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-05-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica. PMID:26064653

  14. On Latent Trait Estimation in Multidimensional Compensatory Item Response Models.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chun

    2015-06-01

    Making inferences from IRT-based test scores requires accurate and reliable methods of person parameter estimation. Given an already calibrated set of item parameters, the latent trait could be estimated either via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or using Bayesian methods such as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation or expected a posteriori (EAP) estimation. In addition, Warm's (Psychometrika 54:427-450, 1989) weighted likelihood estimation method was proposed to reduce the bias of the latent trait estimate in unidimensional models. In this paper, we extend the weighted MLE method to multidimensional models. This new method, denoted as multivariate weighted MLE (MWLE), is proposed to reduce the bias of the MLE even for short tests. MWLE is compared to alternative estimators (i.e., MLE, MAP and EAP) and shown, both analytically and through simulations studies, to be more accurate in terms of bias than MLE while maintaining a similar variance. In contrast, Bayesian estimators (i.e., MAP and EAP) result in biased estimates with smaller variability. PMID:24604245

  15. An integrated approach for identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall events and estimating IDF curves in Southern Ontario, Canada: Incorporating radar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixao, Edson; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader; Shephard, Mark W.; Auld, Heather; Klaassen, Joan; Smith, Graham

    2015-09-01

    Reliable extreme rainfall information is required for many applications including infrastructure design, management of water resources, and planning for weather-related emergencies in urban and rural areas. In this study, in situ TBRG sub-daily rainfall rate observations have been supplemented with weather radar information to better capture the spatial and temporal variability of heavy rainfall events regionally. Comparison of extreme rainfall events show that the absolute differences between the rain gauge and radar generally increase with increasing rainfall. Better agreement between the two observations is found when comparing the collocated radar and TBRG annual maximum values. The median difference is <18% for the annual maximum rainfall values ⩽50 mm. The median of difference of IDF estimates obtained through the Gumbel distribution for 10-year return period values computed from TBRG and radar are also found to be 4%. The overall results of this analysis demonstrates the potential value of incorporating remotely sensed radar with traditional point source TBRG network observations to provide additional insight on extreme rainfall events regionally, especially in terms of identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall. The radar observations are particularly useful in areas where there is insufficient TBRG station density to statistically capture the extreme rainfall events.

  16. Modelling Tradeoffs Evolution in Multipurpose Water Systems Operation in Response to Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, E.; Gazzotti, P.; Amigoni, F.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2015-12-01

    Multipurpose water resource systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of the operating objectives, which - under steady state climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions - is supposed to ensure a fair and/or efficient balance among the conflicting interests. Extreme variability in the system's drivers might affect operators' risk aversion and force a change in the tradeoff. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of operators' behavior and the associated system's performance. In this study, we explore how the selection of different optimal tradeoffs among the operating objectives is linked to the variations of the boundary conditions, such as, for example, drifting rainfall season or remarkable changes in crop and energy prices. We argue that tradeoff selection is driven by recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming on one of the operating objective target value should push the tradeoff toward the disadvantaged objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operators' tradeoff selection process. We map the selection onto a multi lateral negotiation process, where different multiple, virtual agents optimize different operating objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise on the operating policy. The agent's rigidity in each negotiation round is determined by the recent system performances according to the specific objective it represents. The negotiation follows a set-based egocentric monotonic concession protocol: at each negotiation step an agent incrementally adds some options to the set of its acceptable compromises and (possibly) accepts lower and lower satisfying policies until an agreement is achieved. We apply this reiterated negotiation framework on the regulated Lake Como, Italy, simulating the lake dam operation and its recurrent updates over the last 50 years. The operation aims to balance shoreline flood prevention and irrigation

  17. Polarization response in extreme nonlinear optics: when can the semiclassical approach be used?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogatskaya, A. V.; Volkova, E. A.; Kharin, V. Yu; Popov, A. M.

    2016-04-01

    Availability of the semiclassical approach in strong-field physics and extreme nonlinear optics is analyzed. It is found that it is valid for calculation of the emission to the initially populated bound state only if population of this state is close to unity during the pulse and in the after pulse regime. If the initial level is depleted, the semiclassical approach fails and should be replaced by quantum-electrodynamical calculations. Also it is demonstrated that the bremsstrahlung spectrum cannot be correctly described in the frames of the semiclassical approach.

  18. Bayesian Estimation of Multi-Unidimensional Graded Response IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuo, Tzu-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Item response theory (IRT) has gained an increasing popularity in large-scale educational and psychological testing situations because of its theoretical advantages over classical test theory. Unidimensional graded response models (GRMs) are useful when polytomous response items are designed to measure a unified latent trait. They are limited in…

  19. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird

    PubMed Central

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R.; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C.; Hilton, Geoff M.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world’s biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013–14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012–2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013–14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013–14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  20. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    PubMed

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  1. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover

    PubMed Central

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982–2013: range 11.3–65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1–32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica. PMID:26064653

  2. Responsive Stabilization of Nanoparticles for Extreme Salinity and High-Temperature Reservoir Applications.

    PubMed

    Ranka, Mikhil; Brown, Paul; Hatton, T Alan

    2015-09-01

    Colloidal stabilization of nanoparticles under extreme salinity and high temperature conditions is a key challenge in the development of next generation technologies for subsurface reservoir characterization and oil recovery. Polyelectrolytes have been investigated as nanoparticle stabilizers, but typically fail at high ionic strengths and elevated temperatures due to excessive charge screening and dehydration. We report an approach to nanoparticle stabilization that overcomes these limitations, and exploits the antipolyelectrolyte phenomenon, in which screening of intrachain electrostatic interactions causes a polyzwitterion chain to undergo a structural transition from a collapsed globule to a more open coil-like regime with increases in ionic strength and temperature. Small-angle neutron scattering on a model zwitterionic polymer in solution indicated an increase in both radius of gyration and excluded volume parameter of the polymer with increases in ionic strength and temperature. The model zwitterion was subsequently incorporated within a polymeric stabilizer for nanoparticles under harsh reservoir conditions, and used to functionalize hydrophilic (silica) as well as hydrophobic (polystyrene) nanoparticles. Long-term colloidal stability was achieved at salt concentrations up to 120,000 mg/dm3 at 90 °C, approximately twice the stability limit previously reported in the literature. The approach can be broadly generalized to a large class of synthetic polyzwitterions, and can be adapted to a wide variety of other colloidal systems in which demands placed by extreme salinity and temperature conditions must be met. PMID:26278070

  3. Methodology for estimating thoracic impact response in frontal crash tests.

    PubMed

    Thor, Craig P; Gabler, Hampton C

    2007-01-01

    This study has investigated the feasibility of estimating chest acceleration from the pelvic acceleration and shoulder belt forces measured on a vehicle occupant exposed to a frontal crash. The method of estimating chest acceleration is based upon a simple two-mass one-dimensional model of a vehicle occupant in which pelvic acceleration and shoulder belt force are applied as forcing functions. The predictive power of the model was evaluated by comparing the estimated and measured chest acceleration of 18 Hybrid-III crash test dummies subjected to 56 km/hr full frontal barrier crash tests. The crashtest dummies were restrained by airbags and three-point belt systems with pretensioners and load-limiting shoulder belts. The combined loads exerted on the chest by the pelvis and the shoulder belts were shown to be a reasonable estimate of force on the chest early in the crash event prior to significant airbag loading. PMID:17487104

  4. Tolerance and responsive gene expression of Sogatella furcifera under extreme temperature stresses are altered by its vectored plant virus.

    PubMed

    Xu, Donglin; Zhong, Ting; Feng, Wendi; Zhou, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), a newly emerged fijivirus causing great loss to rice production in eastern and southeastern Asian countries in recent years, is efficiently transmitted by a rice pest, white-backed planthopper (WBPH, Sogatella furcifera) in a persistent, circulative propagative manner and can be considered as an insect virus. In this study, SRBSDV infection in WBPH was found to increase the vector's death rate under extreme cold stress but improve its survival rate under extreme heat stress. Digital gene expression profiling based on RNA-Seq revealed different gene regulation patterns in WBPH under viral and/or temperature stress. Under cold stress, the virus infection upregulated 1540 genes and downregulated 131 genes in the insect, most of which were related to membrane properties and biological processes of actin and cytoskeleton; whereas under heat stress, it upregulated 363 genes and downregulated 548 genes, most of which were associated to metabolism and intracellular organelles. Several types of stress-responsive genes involving intestinal mucin, cuticle protein, ubiquitin protease, immune response, RNA interference and heat shock response, were largely upregulated under cold stress, but largely downregulated under heat stress, by SRBSDV infection. Our results suggest two distinct mechanisms of virus-altered vector insect tolerance to temperature stress. PMID:27531640

  5. Tolerance and responsive gene expression of Sogatella furcifera under extreme temperature stresses are altered by its vectored plant virus

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Donglin; Zhong, Ting; Feng, Wendi; Zhou, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), a newly emerged fijivirus causing great loss to rice production in eastern and southeastern Asian countries in recent years, is efficiently transmitted by a rice pest, white-backed planthopper (WBPH, Sogatella furcifera) in a persistent, circulative propagative manner and can be considered as an insect virus. In this study, SRBSDV infection in WBPH was found to increase the vector’s death rate under extreme cold stress but improve its survival rate under extreme heat stress. Digital gene expression profiling based on RNA-Seq revealed different gene regulation patterns in WBPH under viral and/or temperature stress. Under cold stress, the virus infection upregulated 1540 genes and downregulated 131 genes in the insect, most of which were related to membrane properties and biological processes of actin and cytoskeleton; whereas under heat stress, it upregulated 363 genes and downregulated 548 genes, most of which were associated to metabolism and intracellular organelles. Several types of stress-responsive genes involving intestinal mucin, cuticle protein, ubiquitin protease, immune response, RNA interference and heat shock response, were largely upregulated under cold stress, but largely downregulated under heat stress, by SRBSDV infection. Our results suggest two distinct mechanisms of virus-altered vector insect tolerance to temperature stress. PMID:27531640

  6. Electrically evoked long loop responses (LLR): normative data for upper and lower extremities.

    PubMed

    Deletis, V; Beric, A

    1989-01-01

    Long loop responses can be obtained repeatedly in all neurologically healthy subjects with low variability of onset and peak latencies. Long loop responses showed characteristic features separate from microreflexes of Bickford. Normative data will help us to elucidate the characteristic alterations of these reflexes in different pathologies which involve somatosensory pyramidal and extrapyramidal systems. PMID:2606069

  7. Characterising the Geomorphic Response of a Tropical Mega-River to an Extreme, Cyclone Induced, Flood Event.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackney, C. R.; Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Parsons, D. R.; Aalto, R. E.; Nicholas, A. P.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme events have the ability to induce extensive geomorphic change in fluvial systems as a result of elevated discharge levels, increased sediment transport capacity and associated changes in sheer stresses along channel boundaries. Understanding how rapid rises in water levels change flow structures and channel boundary roughness is key to understanding the relative significance of large events in terms of driving local and system wide geomorphic change. However, capturing the fluvial process dynamics in operation during such events is technically and logistically difficult, especially in the world's largest rivers. During September 2013, on the peak of the monsoon, a series of tropical cyclones induced a large flood event within the Mekong basin. At the peak of the flood wave, discharge measured ~60000 m3/s; the 11th largest flood on record. Pre and post event high resolution topographic surveys of parts of the bed and bank were captured using a combination of contiguous multibeam echo sounding (MBES) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) during the event. Simultaneously detailed measurements of cross sectional and near bank flow structure were acquired using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp). Together, these unique datasets can be used to characterise and assess the geomorphic impact of a cyclone induced extreme flood event on the Mekong. We show how flow structures in the near bank region evolve with stage during the extreme event and how the associated geomorphic response is modulated by the distinctive process dynamics of a mega-river.

  8. An Application of the Peaks Over Threshold Method to Estimate Extreme Winds Over the South Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, N. P.; Camargo, R. D.

    2014-12-01

    Given the growing investment in coastal activities, such as industrial and residential settings, proper understanding of oceanographic and meteorological phenomena over such areas became very important. The winds play a major role in this context, being the main source of energy for gravity waves generation in the ocean, and determining the characterization of severe weather conditions. In this study, a statistical analysis of extreme values was applied to wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP-I) grid points with 2.5º of spacial resolution and results from a simulation with the BRAMS model in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean region with 0.25º of resolution. The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) technique was applied and the analysis focused on the behavior of extreme values according to the wind direction and the resolution of the original data. The period of analysis goes from 1982 to 2011 and the domain goes from 40ºS to 5ºN latitude and 70ºW to 10ºW longitude. The POT method demanded that peaks chosen for analysis were independent and identically distributed and a minimum interval of 48 hours was given to separate the subset sampled for analysis. The peak excesses above a determined threshold were adjusted to the Generalized Pareto Distribution and extrapolation to 50 years return periods was built in each grid point. General large-scale patterns of 50-yr return values were similar for both datasets used. However, more details were verified in the analysis of simulation results with BRAMS, given the dependence of the methodology to the resolution of the original set. Thus, the greater detailing suggests the inclusion of mesoscale features originating these extreme values. In the northern part of the domain, extreme winds were weaker and prevailed from north, northeast and east, given the influence of the trade winds and the positioning of the South Atlantic Subtropical High. On the

  9. ESTIMATION OF RESPONSE-SPECTRAL VALUES AS FUNCTIONS OF MAGNITUDE, DISTANCE, AND SITE CONDITIONS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Joyner, W.B.; Boore, D.M.

    1983-01-01

    Horizontal pseudo-velocity response was analyzed for twelve shallow earthquakes in western North America. Estimation of response-spectral values was related to magnitude, distance and site conditions. Errors in the methods are analyzed.

  10. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. PMID:27341115

  11. Fluvial response to debris associated with mass wasting during extreme floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Andrew J.

    1990-07-01

    Evolution of channels and bottomlands in mountain valleys of the central Appalachians is strongly influenced by debris supplied to stream channels from mass wasting during extreme storms. The type of change observed varies with basin scale and storm characteristics. Along channels receiving coarse sediment from debris avalanches or debris flows during Hurricane Camille in 1969, pure scour occurred in drainage areas less than 1 km2 and gradients steeper than 0.1; in Hurricane Camille and in the June 1949 storm, mixed erosion and deposition with continuous reworking of the valley floor was observed along streams with drainage areas up to 65 km2. In basins larger than 100 km2, valley-floor reworking associated with influx of debris during both storms was localized and discontinuous. In the South Branch Potomac River basin in West Virginia, intense precipitation within a small contributing area generated scores of debris slides and avalanches in June 1949; debris transported by tributaries to main valleys exceeded the competence of the larger channels and formed new bottomland. Long-duration moderate-intensity precipitation in November 1985 generated fewer debris avalanches. Flood peaks associated with a larger contributing area along the main valleys were 80% to 190% larger than in 1949 and caused extensive channel and flood-plain erosion, including truncation and removal of 1949 deposits. At some locations relict debris deposits may have influenced hydraulic conditions and affected patterns of erosion and deposition during the 1985 storm. Sequential occurrence of extreme storms with different hydrologic characteristics creates a bottomland mosaic of surfaces with varying elevations and textures.

  12. Kinematic constituents of the extreme head turn of Strix aluco estimated by means of CT-scanning.

    PubMed

    Grytsyshina, E E; Kuznetsov, A N; Panyutina, A A

    2016-01-01

    To analyze extreme sideways turn of the head in owls, a total fresh specimen of Strix aluco was frozen in respective posture and CT-scanned. The maximum turn to one side was found to be 360°, provided that the head is drawn into the shoulders. 160° of this full turn are ensured by the neck axial rotation (this includes ~90° twist of the head relative to epistropheus and, posterior to it, less than 15° per every cervical joint), and the rest 200° are ensured by combination of dorsal and lateral flexion. The 15° limit is overcome in five joints in respect of dorsiflexion, and in six joints in respect of lateral flexion. So large a degree of lateral mobility is unusual among birds, and is appreciated as a crucial adaptation to extreme head turning. PMID:27021365

  13. Testing and Modeling the Responses of Hybrid III Crash-Dummy Lower Extremity under High-speed Vertical Loading.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Feng; Dong, Liqiang; Jin, Xin; Jiang, Binhui; Kalra, Anil; Shen, Ming; Yang, King H

    2015-11-01

    Anthropometric test devices (ATDs), such as the Hybrid III crash-test dummy, have been used to simulate lowerextremity responses to military personnel subjected to loading conditions from anti-vehicular (AV) landmine blasts. Numerical simulations [e.g., finite element (FE) analysis] of such high-speed vertical loading on ATD parts require accurate material parameters that are dependent on strain rate. This study presents a combined experimental and computational study to calibrate the rate-dependent properties of three materials on the lower extremities of the Hybrid III dummy. The three materials are heelpad foam, foot skin, and lower-leg flesh, and each has properties that can affect simulation results of forces and moments transferred to the lower extremities. Specifically, the behavior of the heel-pad foam was directly calibrated through standard compression tests, and the properties of the foot skin and lower-leg flesh were calibrated based on an optimization procedure in which the material parameters were adjusted for best fit between the calculated force-deflection responses and least squares of the experimental data. The material models updated with strain-rate effects were then integrated into an ATD full-body FE model (FEM), which was used to simulate vertical impulsive loading responses at different speeds. Results of validations using this model demonstrated basic replication of experimentally obtained response patterns of the tibia. The bending moments matched those calculated from the experimental data 25-40% more accurately than those obtained from the original model, and axial forces were 60-90% more accurate. However, neither the original nor the modified models well captured whole-body response patterns, and further improvements are required. As a generalized approach, the optimization method presented in this paper can be applied to characterize material constants for a wide range of materials. PMID:26660755

  14. Estimating the Nominal Response Model under Nonnormal Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Preston, Kathleen Suzanne Johnson; Reise, Steven Paul

    2014-01-01

    The nominal response model (NRM), a much understudied polytomous item response theory (IRT) model, provides researchers the unique opportunity to evaluate within-item category distinctions. Polytomous IRT models, such as the NRM, are frequently applied to psychological assessments representing constructs that are unlikely to be normally…

  15. Estimating Rater Severity with Multilevel and Multidimensional Item Response Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-chung

    Traditional approaches to the investigation of the objectivity of ratings for constructed-response items are based on classical test theory, which is item-dependent and sample-dependent. Item response theory overcomes this drawback by decomposing item difficulties into genuine difficulties and rater severity. In so doing, objectivity of ability…

  16. Development of an artificial neural network based multi-model ensemble to estimate the northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: an application of extreme learning machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Shrivastava, Nitin Anand; Panigrahi, B. K.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2014-09-01

    The south peninsular part of India gets maximum amount of rainfall during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season [October to November (OND)] which is the primary source of water for the agricultural activities in this region. A nonlinear method viz., Extreme learning machine (ELM) has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products to make the multi-model ensemble (MME) based estimation of NEM rainfall (NEMR). The ELM is basically is an improved learning algorithm for the single feed-forward neural network (SLFN) architecture. The 27 year (1982-2008) lead-1 (using initial conditions of September for forecasting the mean rainfall of OND) hindcast runs (1982-2008) from seven GCM has been used to make MME. The improvement of the proposed method with respect to other regular MME (simple arithmetic mean of GCMs (EM) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions based MME) has been assessed through several skill metrics like Spread distribution, multiplicative bias, prediction errors, the yield of prediction, Pearson's and Kendal's correlation coefficient and Wilmort's index of agreement. The efficiency of ELM estimated rainfall is established by all the stated skill scores. The performance of ELM in extreme NEMR years, out of which 4 years are characterized by deficit rainfall and 5 years are identified as excess, is also examined. It is found that the ELM could expeditiously capture these extremes reasonably well as compared to the other MME approaches.

  17. Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear-plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g., 1000-year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) have shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme-surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea level data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the peaks-over-threshold method with HI (POTH) and the block maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical historical maxima (HMax) data, and over-a-threshold supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  18. Use of historical information in extreme surge frequency estimation: case of the marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2014-09-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g. 1000 year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) had shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea levels data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the Peaks-Over-Threshold method with HI (POTH) and the Block Maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical Historical Maxima (HMax) data, and Over a Threshold Supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  19. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  20. ESTIMATION OF AQUATIC SPECIES SENSITIVITY AND POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Determining species sensitivity and population-level responses of aquatic organisms to contaminants are critical components of criteria development and ecological risk assessment. To address data gaps in species sensitivity, the U.S. EPA developed the Interspecies Correlation Est...

  1. Estimation of springing response for 550 000 DWT ore carrier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenya, Christiaan Adika; Ren, Huilong; Li, Hui; Wang, Di

    2016-07-01

    The desire to benefit from economy of scale is one of the major driving forces behind the continuous growth in ship sizes. However, models of new large ships need to be thoroughly investigated to determine the carrier's response in waves. In this work, experimental and numerical assessments of the motion and load response of a 550,000 DWT ore carrier are performed using prototype ships with softer stiffness, and towing tank tests are conducted using a segmented model with two schemes of softer stiffness. Numerical analyses are performed employing both rigid body and linear hydroelasticity theories using an in-house program and a comparison is then made between experimental and numerical results to establish the influence of stiffness on the ore carrier's springing response. Results show that softer stiffness models can be used when studying the springing response of ships in waves.

  2. Bayesian Estimation of Graded Response Multilevel Models Using Gibbs Sampling: Formulation and Illustration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Natesan, Prathiba; Limbers, Christine; Varni, James W.

    2010-01-01

    The present study presents the formulation of graded response models in the multilevel framework (as nonlinear mixed models) and demonstrates their use in estimating item parameters and investigating the group-level effects for specific covariates using Bayesian estimation. The graded response multilevel model (GRMM) combines the formulation of…

  3. An Analysis of Variance Approach for the Estimation of Response Time Distributions in Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Attali, Yigal

    2010-01-01

    Generalizability theory and analysis of variance methods are employed, together with the concept of objective time pressure, to estimate response time distributions and the degree of time pressure in timed tests. By estimating response time variance components due to person, item, and their interaction, and fixed effects due to item types and…

  4. NEUROTOXIC EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AGENTS: DATA GAPS THAT CHALLENGE DOSE-RESPONSE ESTIMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxic effects of environmental agents: Data gaps that challenge dose-response estimation
    S Gutter*, P Mendola+, SG Selevan**, D Rice** (*UNC Chapel Hill; +US EPA, NHEERL; **US EPA, NCEA)

    Dose-response estimation is a critical feature of risk assessment. It can be...

  5. A Comparison Study of the Unidimensional IRT Estimation of Compensatory and Noncompensatory Multidimensional Item Response Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ackerman, Terry A.

    Concern has been expressed over the item response theory (IRT) assumption that a person's ability can be estimated in a unidimensional latent space. To examine whether or not the response to an item requires only a single latent ability, unidimensional ability estimates were compared for data generated from the multidimensional item response…

  6. Bayesian Estimation of Panel Data Fractional Response Models with Endogeneity: An Application to Standardized Test Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kessler, Lawrence M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as…

  7. Two Approaches to Estimation of Classification Accuracy Rate under Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lathrop, Quinn N.; Cheng, Ying

    2013-01-01

    Within the framework of item response theory (IRT), there are two recent lines of work on the estimation of classification accuracy (CA) rate. One approach estimates CA when decisions are made based on total sum scores, the other based on latent trait estimates. The former is referred to as the Lee approach, and the latter, the Rudner approach,…

  8. Estimation of IRT Graded Response Models: Limited versus Full Information Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forero, Carlos G.; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2009-01-01

    The performance of parameter estimates and standard errors in estimating F. Samejima's graded response model was examined across 324 conditions. Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) was compared with a 3-stage estimator for categorical item factor analysis (CIFA) when the unweighted least squares method was used in CIFA's third stage. CIFA…

  9. Responses of soil bacterial and fungal communities to extreme desiccation and rewetting.

    PubMed

    Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

    2013-11-01

    The microbial response to summer desiccation reflects adaptation strategies, setting the stage for a large rainfall-induced soil CO2 pulse upon rewetting, an important component of the ecosystem carbon budget. In three California annual grasslands, the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities were tracked over a summer season and in response to controlled rewetting of intact soil cores. Phylogenetic marker genes for bacterial (16S) and fungal (28S) RNA and DNA were sequenced, and the abundances of these genes and transcripts were measured. Although bacterial community composition differed among sites, all sites shared a similar response pattern of the present and potentially active bacterial community to dry-down and wet-up. In contrast, the fungal community was not detectably different among sites, and was largely unaffected by dry-down, showing marked resistance to dessication. The potentially active bacterial community changed significantly as summer dry-down progressed, then returned to pre-dry-down composition within several hours of rewetting, displaying spectacular resilience. Upon rewetting, transcript copies of bacterial rpoB genes increased consistently, reflecting rapid activity resumption. Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria were the most abundant phyla present and potentially active, and showed the largest changes in relative abundance. The relative increase (Actinobacteria) and decrease (Acidobacteria) with dry-down, and the reverse responses to rewetting reflected a differential response, which was conserved at the phylum level and consistent across sites. These contrasting desiccation-related bacterial life-strategies suggest that predicted changes in precipitation patterns may affect soil nutrient and carbon cycling by differentially impacting activity patterns of microbial communities. PMID:23823489

  10. Responses of soil bacterial and fungal communities to extreme desiccation and rewetting

    PubMed Central

    Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

    2013-01-01

    The microbial response to summer desiccation reflects adaptation strategies, setting the stage for a large rainfall-induced soil CO2 pulse upon rewetting, an important component of the ecosystem carbon budget. In three California annual grasslands, the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities were tracked over a summer season and in response to controlled rewetting of intact soil cores. Phylogenetic marker genes for bacterial (16S) and fungal (28S) RNA and DNA were sequenced, and the abundances of these genes and transcripts were measured. Although bacterial community composition differed among sites, all sites shared a similar response pattern of the present and potentially active bacterial community to dry-down and wet-up. In contrast, the fungal community was not detectably different among sites, and was largely unaffected by dry-down, showing marked resistance to dessication. The potentially active bacterial community changed significantly as summer dry-down progressed, then returned to pre-dry-down composition within several hours of rewetting, displaying spectacular resilience. Upon rewetting, transcript copies of bacterial rpoB genes increased consistently, reflecting rapid activity resumption. Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria were the most abundant phyla present and potentially active, and showed the largest changes in relative abundance. The relative increase (Actinobacteria) and decrease (Acidobacteria) with dry-down, and the reverse responses to rewetting reflected a differential response, which was conserved at the phylum level and consistent across sites. These contrasting desiccation-related bacterial life-strategies suggest that predicted changes in precipitation patterns may affect soil nutrient and carbon cycling by differentially impacting activity patterns of microbial communities. PMID:23823489

  11. Weighted estimating equations with nonignorably missing response data.

    PubMed

    Troxel, A B; Lipsitz, S R; Brennan, T A

    1997-09-01

    We propose weighted estimating equations for data with nonignorable nonresponse in order to reduce the bias that can occur with a complete case analysis. A survey concerning medical practice guidelines, malpractice litigation, and settlement provides the framework. The survey was sent to recipients in two waves: those who responded on the first or second wave are used to estimate a nonignorable nonresponse model, while the fraction of recipients who never responded is used to allow the percentage of missing data to change with each wave. We use the structure of the GEE of Liang and Zeger (1986, Biometrika 73, 13-22), adding weights equal to the inverse probability of being observed. We present simulations demonstrating the bias that can occur with an unweighted analysis and use the survey data to illustrate the methods. PMID:9290219

  12. Estimation of Response Functions Based on Variational Bayes Algorithm in Dynamic Images Sequences

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We proposed a nonparametric Bayesian model based on variational Bayes algorithm to estimate the response functions in dynamic medical imaging. In dynamic renal scintigraphy, the impulse response or retention functions are rather complicated and finding a suitable parametric form is problematic. In this paper, we estimated the response functions using nonparametric Bayesian priors. These priors were designed to favor desirable properties of the functions, such as sparsity or smoothness. These assumptions were used within hierarchical priors of the variational Bayes algorithm. We performed our algorithm on the real online dataset of dynamic renal scintigraphy. The results demonstrated that this algorithm improved the estimation of response functions with nonparametric priors.

  13. A new mean estimator using auxiliary variables for randomized response models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozgul, Nilgun; Cingi, Hulya

    2013-10-01

    Randomized response models are commonly used in surveys dealing with sensitive questions such as abortion, alcoholism, sexual orientation, drug taking, annual income, tax evasion to ensure interviewee anonymity and reduce nonrespondents rates and biased responses. Starting from the pioneering work of Warner [7], many versions of RRM have been developed that can deal with quantitative responses. In this study, new mean estimator is suggested for RRM including quantitative responses. The mean square error is derived and a simulation study is performed to show the efficiency of the proposed estimator to other existing estimators in RRM.

  14. Estimating Non-Normal Latent Trait Distributions within Item Response Theory Using True and Estimated Item Parameters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sass, D. A.; Schmitt, T. A.; Walker, C. M.

    2008-01-01

    Item response theory (IRT) procedures have been used extensively to study normal latent trait distributions and have been shown to perform well; however, less is known concerning the performance of IRT with non-normal latent trait distributions. This study investigated the degree of latent trait estimation error under normal and non-normal…

  15. An approach to quantifying 3D responses of cells to extreme strain

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yuhui; Huang, Guoyou; Li, Moxiao; Wang, Lin; Elson, Elliot L.; Jian Lu, Tian; Genin, Guy M.; Xu, Feng

    2016-01-01

    The tissues of hollow organs can routinely stretch up to 2.5 times their length. Although significant pathology can arise if relatively large stretches are sustained, the responses of cells are not known at these levels of sustained strain. A key challenge is presenting cells with a realistic and well-defined three-dimensional (3D) culture environment that can sustain such strains. Here, we describe an in vitro system called microscale, magnetically-actuated synthetic tissues (micro-MASTs) to quantify these responses for cells within a 3D hydrogel matrix. Cellular strain-threshold and saturation behaviors were observed in hydrogel matrix, including strain-dependent proliferation, spreading, polarization, and differentiation, and matrix adhesion retained at strains sufficient for apoptosis. More broadly, the system shows promise for defining and controlling the effects of mechanical environment upon a broad range of cells. PMID:26887698

  16. Breeding on the extreme edge: Modulation of the adrenocortical response to acute stress in two High Arctic passerines

    PubMed Central

    Meddle, Simone L.; Romero, L. Michael; Landys, Meta M.; Reneerkens, Jeroen; Wingfield, John C.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Arctic weather in spring is unpredictable and can also be extreme, so Arctic‐breeding birds must be flexible in their breeding to deal with such variability. Unpredictability in weather conditions will only intensify with climate change and this in turn could affect reproductive capability of migratory birds. Adjustments to coping strategies are therefore crucial, so here we examined the plasticity of the adrenocorticotropic stress response in two Arctic songbird species—the snow bunting (Plectrophenax nivalis) and Lapland longspur (Calcarius lapponicus)—breeding in northwest Greenland. Across the breeding season, the stress response was strongest at arrival and least robust during molt in male snow buntings. Snow bunting females had higher baseline but similar stress‐induced corticosterone levels compared to males. Modification of the stress response was not due to adrenal insensitivity, but likely regulated at the anterior pituitary gland. Compared to independent nestlings and adult snow buntings, parental‐dependent chicks had a more robust stress response. For Lapland longspurs, baseline corticosterone was highest at arrival in both male and females, and arriving males displayed a higher stress response compared to arriving females. Comparison of male corticosterone profiles collected at arrival in Greenland (76°N) and Alaska (67–71°N;) reveal that both species have higher stress responses at the more northern location. Flexibility in the stress response may be typical for birds nesting at the leading edges of their range and this ability will become more relevant as global climate change results in major shifts of breeding habitat and phenology for migratory birds. J. Exp. Zool. 323A: 266–275, 2015. © 2015 The Authors. J. Exp. Zool. published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25757443

  17. How extreme are extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  18. Time-domain model for TLP surge response in extreme sea states

    SciTech Connect

    Finnigan, T.D.; Botelho, D.L.R.; Petrauskas, C.

    1984-05-01

    A time-domain model is presented and evaluated for the prediction of the surge response of a tension leg platform (TLP) in regular and random waves, in the presence of a current. The wave force equation in the model is a modification of the Morison equation. Wave diffraction effects are incorporated in an approximate manner. The time-domain model is evaluated on the basis of experimental tests that were performed on a 1:60 scale model of a TLP. The tests were specially designed to investigate the effect of combined waves and current on surge response. The tests were conducted in regular, random and grouped waves. Current was simulated by towing the model. Two different forms of linear wave theory based on stretching and extrapolating wave particle kinematics from Airy wave theory up to the free surface are investigated. The maximum surge response is predicted well by the time-domain model provided the extrapolation of Airy wave theory is used.

  19. Heart rate variability and arterial oxygen saturation response during extreme normobaric hypoxia.

    PubMed

    Botek, Michal; Krejčí, Jakub; De Smet, Stefan; Gába, Aleš; McKune, Andrew J

    2015-07-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to assess the response of autonomic cardiac activity and changes in the arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2) during normobaric hypoxia and subsequent recovery. Heart rate variability (HRV) and SpO2 were monitored in a supine position during hypoxia (FiO2=9.6%) for 10min, and normoxic recovery in 29 subjects. Spectral analysis of HRV quantified the autonomic cardiac activity by means of low frequency (LF) (0.05-0.15Hz) and high frequency (HF) (0.15-0.50Hz) power transformed by natural logarithm (Ln). Based on the SpO2 response to hypoxia, the subjects were divided into Resistant (RG, SpO2=80.8±7.0%) or Sensitive (SG, SpO2=67.2±2.9%) group. The SpO2 and vagal activity (LnHF) significantly decreased during hypoxia in both groups. A withdrawal in vagal activity was significantly greater in SG compared to RG. Moreover, only in SG, a relative increase in sympathetic modulation (Ln LF/HF) during hypoxia occurred. Correlations (r=-0.461, and r=0.595, both P<0.05) between ΔSpO2 (delta) and ΔLn LF/HF, and ΔLnHF were found. Based on results, it seems that SpO2 level could be an important factor that influences the autonomic cardiac response in hypoxia. PMID:25907329

  20. Rapid Responsiveness to Practice Predicts Longer-Term Retention of Upper Extremity Motor Skill in Non-Demented Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Schaefer, Sydney Y.; Duff, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Skill acquisition is a form of motor learning that may provide key insights into the aging brain. Although previous work suggests that older adults learn novel motor tasks slower and to a lesser extent than younger adults, we have recently demonstrated no significant effect of chronological age on the rates and amounts of skill acquisition, nor on its long-term retention, in adults over the age of 65. To better understand predictors of skill acquisition in non-demented older adults, we now explore the relationship between early improvements in motor performance due to practice (i.e., rapid responsiveness) and longer-term retention of an upper extremity motor skill, and whether the extent of rapid responsiveness was associated with global cognitive status. Results showed significant improvements in motor performance within the first five (of 150) trials, and that this “rapid responsiveness” was predictive of skill retention 1 month later. Notably, the extent of rapid responsiveness was not dependent on global cognitive status, as measured by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Thus, rapid responsiveness appears to be an important variable in longer-term neurorehabilitative efforts with older adults, regardless of their cognitive status. PMID:26635601

  1. Different oxidative stress response in keratinocytes and fibroblasts of reconstructed skin exposed to non extreme daily-ultraviolet radiation.

    PubMed

    Marionnet, Claire; Pierrard, Cécile; Lejeune, François; Sok, Juliette; Thomas, Marie; Bernerd, Françoise

    2010-01-01

    Experiments characterizing the biological effects of sun exposure have usually involved solar simulators. However, they addressed the worst case scenario i.e. zenithal sun, rarely found in common outdoor activities. A non-extreme ultraviolet radiation (UV) spectrum referred as "daily UV radiation" (DUVR) with a higher UVA (320-400 nm) to UVB (280-320 nm) irradiance ratio has therefore been defined. In this study, the biological impact of an acute exposure to low physiological doses of DUVR (corresponding to 10 and 20% of the dose received per day in Paris mid-April) on a 3 dimensional reconstructed skin model, was analysed. In such conditions, epidermal and dermal morphological alterations could only be detected after the highest dose of DUVR. We then focused on oxidative stress response induced by DUVR, by analyzing the modulation of mRNA level of 24 markers in parallel in fibroblasts and keratinocytes. DUVR significantly modulated mRNA levels of these markers in both cell types. A cell type differential response was noticed: it was faster in fibroblasts, with a majority of inductions and high levels of modulation in contrast to keratinocyte response. Our results thus revealed a higher sensitivity in response to oxidative stress of dermal fibroblasts although located deeper in the skin, giving new insights into the skin biological events occurring in everyday UV exposure. PMID:20706594

  2. Different Oxidative Stress Response in Keratinocytes and Fibroblasts of Reconstructed Skin Exposed to Non Extreme Daily-Ultraviolet Radiation

    PubMed Central

    Marionnet, Claire; Pierrard, Cécile; Lejeune, François; Sok, Juliette; Thomas, Marie; Bernerd, Françoise

    2010-01-01

    Experiments characterizing the biological effects of sun exposure have usually involved solar simulators. However, they addressed the worst case scenario i.e. zenithal sun, rarely found in common outdoor activities. A non-extreme ultraviolet radiation (UV) spectrum referred as “daily UV radiation” (DUVR) with a higher UVA (320–400 nm) to UVB (280–320 nm) irradiance ratio has therefore been defined. In this study, the biological impact of an acute exposure to low physiological doses of DUVR (corresponding to 10 and 20% of the dose received per day in Paris mid-April) on a 3 dimensional reconstructed skin model, was analysed. In such conditions, epidermal and dermal morphological alterations could only be detected after the highest dose of DUVR. We then focused on oxidative stress response induced by DUVR, by analyzing the modulation of mRNA level of 24 markers in parallel in fibroblasts and keratinocytes. DUVR significantly modulated mRNA levels of these markers in both cell types. A cell type differential response was noticed: it was faster in fibroblasts, with a majority of inductions and high levels of modulation in contrast to keratinocyte response. Our results thus revealed a higher sensitivity in response to oxidative stress of dermal fibroblasts although located deeper in the skin, giving new insights into the skin biological events occurring in everyday UV exposure. PMID:20706594

  3. Plant responses to climatic extremes: within-species variation equals among-species variation.

    PubMed

    Malyshev, Andrey V; Arfin Khan, Mohammed A S; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Steinbauer, Manuel J; Henry, Hugh A L; Jentsch, Anke; Dengler, Jürgen; Willner, Evelin; Kreyling, Juergen

    2016-01-01

    Within-species and among-species differences in growth responses to a changing climate have been well documented, yet the relative magnitude of within-species vs. among-species variation has remained largely unexplored. This missing comparison impedes our ability to make general predictions of biodiversity change and to project future species distributions using models. We present a direct comparison of among- versus within-species variation in response to three of the main stresses anticipated with climate change: drought, warming, and frost. Two earlier experiments had experimentally induced (i) summer drought and (ii) spring frost for four common European grass species and their ecotypes from across Europe. To supplement existing data, a third experiment was carried out, to compare variation among species from different functional groups to within-species variation. Here, we simulated (iii) winter warming plus frost for four grasses, two nonleguminous, and two leguminous forbs, in addition to eleven European ecotypes of the widespread grass Arrhenatherum elatius. For each experiment, we measured: (i) C/N ratio and biomass, (ii) chlorophyll content and biomass, and (iii) plant greenness, root (15) N uptake, and live and dead tissue mass. Using coefficients of variation (CVs) for each experiment and response parameter, a total of 156 within- vs. among-species comparisons were conducted, comparing within-species variation in each of four species with among-species variation for each seed origin (five countries). Of the six significant differences, within-species CVs were higher than among-species CVs in four cases. Partitioning of variance within each treatment in two of the three experiments showed that within-species variability (ecotypes) could explain an additional 9% of response variation after accounting for the among-species variation. Our observation that within-species variation was generally as high as among-species variation emphasizes the importance of

  4. Contribution of Protein and Lipid Components to the Salt Response of Envelopes of an Extremely Halophilic Bacterium1

    PubMed Central

    Kushner, D. J.; Onishi, H.

    1966-01-01

    Kushner, D. J. (National Research Council, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada), and H. Onishi. Contribution of protein and lipid components to the salt response of envelopes of an extremely halophilic bacterium. J. Bacteriol. 91:653–660. 1966.—Removal of protein from envelopes of Halobacterium cutirubrum by peptic digestion left residues that required little or no salt for stability. The salt requirement of envelopes was also lowered by incubation in 0.1 m MgCl2, and could be lowered even further by digestion with trypsin or chymotrypsin in 0.1 m MgCl2. Dissolution of envelopes in low salt concentrations made their protein more susceptible to attack by these and other proteolytic enzymes. Removal of lipids raised the requirement for divalent cations, particularly for Mg++; it slightly increased the Na+ requirement and did not affect the requirement for K+. It was concluded that the requirement for high salt concentrations in extreme halophiles is due to mutual repulsion between negatively charged groups on proteins rather than to repulsion between negatively charged phosphate groups on the lipids. The latter act primarily as sites on which divalent cations, especially Mg++ which is required in high concentrations by growing cells, are bound. In this manner, the phosphate groups support envelope structure. PMID:5327362

  5. Synthesis of Concepts in Disturbance Hydrology and the Importance for Hydrologic Response to Extreme Hydroclimatic Events in the Critical Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebel, B. A.; Mirus, B. B.

    2014-12-01

    The watersheds we rely on for water resources, ecosystem services, and protection from hydrologically driven natural hazards are increasingly impacted by landscape disturbance. Abrupt alterations of hydrologic processes resulting from wildfires, urban development, resource extraction, deforestation, hurricanes, tsunamis, and landslides change the storage or buffering capacity as well as the hydrologic functional connectivity in watersheds. We highlight some of the critical issues and major challenges to predicting disturbance impacts on water resources and natural hazards and outline some of the opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of how disturbances propagate through landscape hydrological processes. In particular, we emphasize synthesis of conceptual commonalities and opportunities from other disciplines, primarily ecologic sciences, which are well versed in the study of disturbed landscapes. Cross scale interactions and complex adaptive systems theory are examples of useful concepts for synthesis across different disturbance effects. We also highlight the importance of improved understanding of disturbance hydrology for predicting the effects of extreme hydroclimatic events on the hydrologic response of the Critical Zone. An example from the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, USA of a watershed with multiple disturbances subjected to a low frequency extreme rainfall event is presented to show the diversity of runoff generation mechanisms and the implications for watershed scale impacts.

  6. Hemodynamic and neurohormonal responses to extreme orthostatic stress in physically fit young adults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasser, E. K.; Goswami, N.; Rössler, A.; Vrecko, K.; Hinghofer-Szalkay, H.

    2009-04-01

    Blood pressure stability may be jeopardized in astronauts experiencing orthostatic stress. There is disagreement about cardiovascular and endocrine stress responses that emerge when a critical (presyncopal) state is reached. We studied hemodynamic and neurohormonal changes as induced by an orthostatic stress paradigm (head-up tilt combined with lower body negative pressure) that leads to a syncopal endpoint. From supine control to presyncope, heart rate increased by 78% and thoracic impedance by 12%. There was a 49% fall in stroke volume index, 19% in mean arterial blood pressure, 14% in total peripheral resistance index and 11% in plasma volume. Plasma norepinephrine rose by 107, epinephrine by 491, plasma renin activity by 167, and cortisol by 25%. Hemodynamic and hormonal changes of clearly different magnitude emerge in presyncope as compared to supine rest. Additional studies are warranted to reveal the exact time course of orthostatic changes up to syncopal levels.

  7. Phylogenetically Driven Sequencing of Extremely Halophilic Archaea Reveals Strategies for Static and Dynamic Osmo-response

    PubMed Central

    Tritt, Andrew; Larsen, David; Krusor, Megan; Yao, Andrew I.; Wu, Dongying; Madern, Dominique; Eisen, Jonathan A.; Darling, Aaron E.; Facciotti, Marc T.

    2014-01-01

    Organisms across the tree of life use a variety of mechanisms to respond to stress-inducing fluctuations in osmotic conditions. Cellular response mechanisms and phenotypes associated with osmoadaptation also play important roles in bacterial virulence, human health, agricultural production and many other biological systems. To improve understanding of osmoadaptive strategies, we have generated 59 high-quality draft genomes for the haloarchaea (a euryarchaeal clade whose members thrive in hypersaline environments and routinely experience drastic changes in environmental salinity) and analyzed these new genomes in combination with those from 21 previously sequenced haloarchaeal isolates. We propose a generalized model for haloarchaeal management of cytoplasmic osmolarity in response to osmotic shifts, where potassium accumulation and sodium expulsion during osmotic upshock are accomplished via secondary transport using the proton gradient as an energy source, and potassium loss during downshock is via a combination of secondary transport and non-specific ion loss through mechanosensitive channels. We also propose new mechanisms for magnesium and chloride accumulation. We describe the expansion and differentiation of haloarchaeal general transcription factor families, including two novel expansions of the TATA-binding protein family, and discuss their potential for enabling rapid adaptation to environmental fluxes. We challenge a recent high-profile proposal regarding the evolutionary origins of the haloarchaea by showing that inclusion of additional genomes significantly reduces support for a proposed large-scale horizontal gene transfer into the ancestral haloarchaeon from the bacterial domain. The combination of broad (17 genera) and deep (≥5 species in four genera) sampling of a phenotypically unified clade has enabled us to uncover both highly conserved and specialized features of osmoadaptation. Finally, we demonstrate the broad utility of such datasets, for

  8. Strain response of thermal barrier coatings captured under extreme engine environments through synchrotron X-ray diffraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knipe, Kevin; Manero, Albert; Siddiqui, Sanna F.; Meid, Carla; Wischek, Janine; Okasinski, John; Almer, Jonathan; Karlsson, Anette M.; Bartsch, Marion; Raghavan, Seetha

    2014-07-01

    The mechanical behaviour of thermal barrier coatings in operation holds the key to understanding durability of jet engine turbine blades. Here we report the results from experiments that monitor strains in the layers of a coating subjected to thermal gradients and mechanical loads representing extreme engine environments. Hollow cylindrical specimens, with electron beam physical vapour deposited coatings, were tested with internal cooling and external heating under various controlled conditions. High-energy synchrotron X-ray measurements captured the in situ strain response through the depth of each layer, revealing the link between these conditions and the evolution of local strains. Results of this study demonstrate that variations in these conditions create corresponding trends in depth-resolved strains with the largest effects displayed at or near the interface with the bond coat. With larger temperature drops across the coating, significant strain gradients are seen, which can contribute to failure modes occurring within the layer adjacent to the interface.

  9. Strain response of thermal barrier coatings captured under extreme engine environments through synchrotron X-ray diffraction.

    PubMed

    Knipe, Kevin; Manero, Albert; Siddiqui, Sanna F; Meid, Carla; Wischek, Janine; Okasinski, John; Almer, Jonathan; Karlsson, Anette M; Bartsch, Marion; Raghavan, Seetha

    2014-01-01

    The mechanical behaviour of thermal barrier coatings in operation holds the key to understanding durability of jet engine turbine blades. Here we report the results from experiments that monitor strains in the layers of a coating subjected to thermal gradients and mechanical loads representing extreme engine environments. Hollow cylindrical specimens, with electron beam physical vapour deposited coatings, were tested with internal cooling and external heating under various controlled conditions. High-energy synchrotron X-ray measurements captured the in situ strain response through the depth of each layer, revealing the link between these conditions and the evolution of local strains. Results of this study demonstrate that variations in these conditions create corresponding trends in depth-resolved strains with the largest effects displayed at or near the interface with the bond coat. With larger temperature drops across the coating, significant strain gradients are seen, which can contribute to failure modes occurring within the layer adjacent to the interface. PMID:25078347

  10. Mechanical response tissue analyzer for estimating bone strength

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arnaud, Sara B.; Steele, Charles; Mauriello, Anthony

    1991-01-01

    One of the major concerns for extended space flight is weakness of the long bones of the legs, composed primarily of cortical bone, that functions to provide mechanical support. The strength of cortical bone is due to its complex structure, described simplistically as cylinders of parallel osteons composed of layers of mineralized collagen. The reduced mechanical stresses during space flight or immobilization of bone on Earth reduces the mineral content, and changes the components of its matrix and structure so that its strength is reduced. Currently, the established clinical measures of bone strength are indirect. The measures are based on determinations of mineral density by means of radiography, photon absorptiometry, and quantitative computer tomography. While the mineral content of bone is essential to its strength, there is growing awareness of the limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially osteoporosis. Other experimental methods in clinical trials that more directly evaluate the physical properties of bone, and do not require exposure to radiation, include ultrasound, acoustic emission, and low-frequency mechanical vibration. The last method can be considered a direct measure of the functional capacity of a long bone since it quantifies the mechanical response to a stimulus delivered directly to the bone. A low frequency vibration induces a response (impedance) curve with a minimum at the resonant frequency, that a few investigators use for the evaluation of the bone. An alternative approach, the method under consideration, is to use the response curve as the basis for determination of the bone bending stiffness EI (E is the intrinsic material property and I is the cross-sectional moment of inertia) and mass, fundamental mechanical properties of bone.

  11. Structural and functional responses of extremity veins to long-term gravitational loading or unloading—lessons from animal systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monos, Emil; Raffai, Gábor; Dörnyei, Gabriella; Nádasy, György L.; Fehér, Erzsébet

    2007-02-01

    Long, transparent tubular tilt-cages were developed to maintain experimental rats either in 45∘ head-up (orthostasis model), or in 45∘ head-down body position (antiorthostasis model) for several weeks. In order to study the functional and structural changes in extremity blood vessels, also novel pressure angiograph systems, as well as special quantitative electron microscopic methods were applied. It was found that several adaptive mechanisms are activated in the lower limb superficial veins and microvessels of muscles when an organism is exposed to long-term (1-2 weeks) orthostatic-type gravitational load including a reversible amplification of the pressure-dependent myogenic response, tuning of the myogenic tone by Ca++- and voltage-sensitive K+ channels in humans, augmentation of the intramural sympathetic innervation involving an increased nerve terminal density and synaptic vesicle count with functional remodeling, reorganization of vascular network properties (microvascular rarefaction in muscles, decreased branching angles in superficial veins), and responses of an endothelin and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) containing vesicle system in the endothelium. On the other hand, when applying long-term head-down tilting, the effects are dichotomous, e.g. it suppresses significantly the pressure-induced myogenic response, however does not diminish the adventitial sympathetic innervation density.

  12. How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2015-06-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  13. Extreme Hypoxic Conditions Induce Selective Molecular Responses and Metabolic Reset in Detached Apple Fruit.

    PubMed

    Cukrov, Dubravka; Zermiani, Monica; Brizzolara, Stefano; Cestaro, Alessandro; Licausi, Francesco; Luchinat, Claudio; Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Van Veen, Hans; Zuccolo, Andrea; Ruperti, Benedetto; Tonutti, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    The ripening physiology of detached fruit is altered by low oxygen conditions with profound effects on quality parameters. To study hypoxia-related processes and regulatory mechanisms, apple (Malus domestica, cv Granny Smith) fruit, harvested at commercial ripening, were kept at 1°C under normoxic (control) and hypoxic (0.4 and 0.8 kPa oxygen) conditions for up to 60 days. NMR analyses of cortex tissue identified eight metabolites showing significantly different accumulations between samples, with ethanol and alanine displaying the most pronounced difference between hypoxic and normoxic treatments. A rapid up-regulation of alcohol dehydrogenase and pyruvate-related metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase, pyruvate decarboxylase, alanine aminotransferase) gene expression was detected under both hypoxic conditions with a more pronounced effect induced by the lowest (0.4 kPa) oxygen concentration. Both hypoxic conditions negatively affected ACC synthase and ACC oxidase transcript accumulation. Analysis of RNA-seq data of samples collected after 24 days of hypoxic treatment identified more than 1000 genes differentially expressed when comparing 0.4 vs. 0.8 kPa oxygen concentration samples. Genes involved in cell-wall, minor and major CHO, amino acid and secondary metabolisms, fermentation and glycolysis as well as genes involved in transport, defense responses, and oxidation-reduction appeared to be selectively affected by treatments. The lowest oxygen concentration induced a higher expression of transcription factors belonging to AUX/IAA, WRKY, HB, Zinc-finger families, while MADS box family genes were more expressed when apples were kept under 0.8 kPa oxygen. Out of the eight group VII ERF members present in apple genome, two genes showed a rapid up-regulation under hypoxia, and western blot analysis showed that apple MdRAP2.12 proteins were differentially accumulated in normoxic and hypoxic samples, with the highest level reached under 0.4 kPa oxygen. These data suggest

  14. Extreme Hypoxic Conditions Induce Selective Molecular Responses and Metabolic Reset in Detached Apple Fruit

    PubMed Central

    Cukrov, Dubravka; Zermiani, Monica; Brizzolara, Stefano; Cestaro, Alessandro; Licausi, Francesco; Luchinat, Claudio; Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Van Veen, Hans; Zuccolo, Andrea; Ruperti, Benedetto; Tonutti, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    The ripening physiology of detached fruit is altered by low oxygen conditions with profound effects on quality parameters. To study hypoxia-related processes and regulatory mechanisms, apple (Malus domestica, cv Granny Smith) fruit, harvested at commercial ripening, were kept at 1°C under normoxic (control) and hypoxic (0.4 and 0.8 kPa oxygen) conditions for up to 60 days. NMR analyses of cortex tissue identified eight metabolites showing significantly different accumulations between samples, with ethanol and alanine displaying the most pronounced difference between hypoxic and normoxic treatments. A rapid up-regulation of alcohol dehydrogenase and pyruvate-related metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase, pyruvate decarboxylase, alanine aminotransferase) gene expression was detected under both hypoxic conditions with a more pronounced effect induced by the lowest (0.4 kPa) oxygen concentration. Both hypoxic conditions negatively affected ACC synthase and ACC oxidase transcript accumulation. Analysis of RNA-seq data of samples collected after 24 days of hypoxic treatment identified more than 1000 genes differentially expressed when comparing 0.4 vs. 0.8 kPa oxygen concentration samples. Genes involved in cell-wall, minor and major CHO, amino acid and secondary metabolisms, fermentation and glycolysis as well as genes involved in transport, defense responses, and oxidation-reduction appeared to be selectively affected by treatments. The lowest oxygen concentration induced a higher expression of transcription factors belonging to AUX/IAA, WRKY, HB, Zinc-finger families, while MADS box family genes were more expressed when apples were kept under 0.8 kPa oxygen. Out of the eight group VII ERF members present in apple genome, two genes showed a rapid up-regulation under hypoxia, and western blot analysis showed that apple MdRAP2.12 proteins were differentially accumulated in normoxic and hypoxic samples, with the highest level reached under 0.4 kPa oxygen. These data suggest

  15. Functional MRI determination of a dose-response relationship to lower extremity neuromuscular electrical stimulation in healthy subjects.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gerald V; Alon, Gad; Roys, Steven R; Gullapalli, Rao P

    2003-05-01

    Although empirical evidence supports the use of neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) to treat physical impairments associated with stroke, the mechanisms underlying the efficacy of this modality are poorly understood. Recent studies have employed functional imaging to investigations of brain responses to median nerve stimulation. These studies suggest a dose-response relationship may exist between selected stimulation parameters and hemodynamic responses in sensorimotor regions. However, substantial gaps exist in this literature. The present study was designed to address these deficiencies. Ten healthy subjects participated. In phase one, four stimulus intensity levels were established: (1). sensory threshold [Th], (2). (MM-Th)x0.333+Th [low-intermediate level, LI], (3). (MM-Th)x0.666+Th [high-intermediate level, HI], and (4). maximal motor (MM). In phase two, subjects were scanned using a spiral-echoplanar imaging technique at each stimulus level. Image sets were analyzed to determine hemodynamic responses at the highest Pearson correlation level ( r) ascertained for each of five areas of interest (AOI): (1). primary sensory, (2). primary motor, (3). cingulate gyrus, (4). thalamus, and (5). cerebellum. ANOVA demonstrated significant main effects for BOLD signal amplitude ( p<0.05) changes in all AOI. Similarly, ANOVA showed significant differences in the volume of activation ( p<0.05) with increasing stimulus intensity in four AOI. Secondary analyses of pooled data showed increasing probabilities of activation at higher stimulus intensities within each AOI. Collectively, these data indicate a dose-response relationship exists between lower extremity NMES and brain activation in specific neural regions. The current results, while limited in their generalizability, are foundational for future studies of interventions using NMES. PMID:12698214

  16. Ecological Response to Extreme Flow Events in Streams and Rivers: Implications of Climate Change for Aquatic Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, C. P.; Vander Laan, J. J.; Dhungel, S.; Tarboton, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    We used the USEPA's 2008-2009 National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) data to assess the potential sensitivity of stream biodiversity to both spatial variation in measures of extreme flow and likely changes in extreme flows associated with projected climate change. The NRSA data consisted of macroinvertebrate samples collected at 1313 reference-quality sites. We characterized the hydrologic regimes at each of these sites by developing Random Forest empirical models from long-term (≥ 20 years) daily flow records obtained from 601 gaged USGS stations. These models described spatial variation in 16 flow variables as a function of climate and watershed attributes. Three of the models characterized aspects of extreme flow: the mean number of zero-flow events per year (ZeroDays), the mean number of high-flow events per year (HighDays = number of events per year that exceed the 95th percentile of mean annual flow), and the coefficient of variation of daily flows (CV). We used these models to predict the flow attributes expected at each of the 1313 sites with ecological data. We then built additional Random Forest models that related among-site differences in stream macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition, assemblage richness, and the likelihood of observing individual taxa to the 16 measures of flow regime and other environmental predictors. At the national level, ZeroDays was an important predictor of macroinvertebrate biodiversity: richness declined as ZeroDays increased. A similar pattern was observed when analyses were restricted to lowland and plains streams. For eastern highland streams, HighDays was a better predictor of stream biodiversity than aspects of low flow: richness declined as HighDays increased. For western streams, CV was a better predictor of biodiversity than either ZeroDays or HighDays: biodiversity decreased as CV increased. Empirical models that linked flow attributes to climate change projections imply that flow regime response to climate

  17. Professional ethics in extreme circumstances: responsibilities of attending physicians and healthcare providers in hunger strikes.

    PubMed

    Irmak, Nurbay

    2015-08-01

    Hunger strikes potentially present a serious challenge for attending physicians. Though rare, in certain cases, a conflict can occur between the obligations of beneficence and autonomy. On the one hand, physicians have a duty to preserve life, which entails intervening in a hunger strike before the hunger striker loses his life. On the other hand, physicians' duty to respect autonomy implies that attending physicians have to respect hunger strikers' decisions to refuse nutrition. International medical guidelines state that physicians should follow the strikers' unpressured advance directives. When physicians encounter an unconscious striker, in the absence of reliable advance directives, the guidelines advise physicians to make a decision on the basis of the patient's values, previously expressed wishes, and best interests. I argue that if there are no advance directives and the striker has already lost his competence, the physician has the responsibility to resuscitate the striker. Once the striker regains his decision-making capacity, he should be asked about his decision. If he is determined to continue fasting and refuses treatment, the physician has a moral obligation to respect this decisions and follow his advance directives. PMID:26194871

  18. Extreme Postinjection Flare in Response to Intra-Articular Triamcinolone Acetonide (Kenalog).

    PubMed

    Young, Porter; Homlar, Kelly C

    2016-01-01

    As intra-articular corticosteroid injections (CSIs) are a common treatment for osteoarthritis, physicians must well understand their potential side effects. Postinjection flares are an acute side effect of intra-articular CSIs, with symptoms ranging from mild joint effusion to disabling pain. The present case involved a severe postinjection flare that occurred after the patient, a 56-year-old woman with moderate osteoarthritis in the left knee, received 2 mL of 1% lidocaine and 2 mL (40 mg) of triamcinolone acetonide (Kenalog). Two hours after injection, she experienced swelling and intense pain in the knee and was unable to ambulate. The knee was aspirated with a return of 25 mL of "butterscotch"-colored fluid. This case is novel in that its acuity of onset, severity of symptoms, and synovial fluid analysis mimicked septic arthritis, which was ultimately ruled out with negative cultures and confirmation of triamcinolone acetonide crystals in the synovial aspirate, viewed by polarized light microscopy. Thus, the patient's reaction represents an acute crystal-induced inflammatory response. Although reactions to an intra-articular CSI of this severity are rare, it is important for treating physicians to inform patients of this potential side effect. PMID:26991574

  19. Signal inference with unknown response: calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator.

    PubMed

    Dorn, Sebastian; Enßlin, Torsten A; Greiner, Maksim; Selig, Marco; Boehm, Vanessa

    2015-01-01

    The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calibration, but its covariance structure. The idea of the CURE method, developed in the framework of information field theory, is to start with an assumed calibration to successively include more and more portions of calibration uncertainty into the signal inference equations and to absorb the resulting corrections into renormalized signal (and calibration) solutions. Thereby, the signal inference and calibration problem turns into a problem of solving a single system of ordinary differential equations and can be identified with common resummation techniques used in field theories. We verify the CURE method by applying it to a simplistic toy example and compare it against existent self-calibration schemes, Wiener filter solutions, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We conclude that the method is able to keep up in accuracy with the best self-calibration methods and serves as a noniterative alternative to them. PMID:25679743

  20. Signal inference with unknown response: Calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorn, Sebastian; Enßlin, Torsten A.; Greiner, Maksim; Selig, Marco; Boehm, Vanessa

    2015-01-01

    The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calibration, but its covariance structure. The idea of the CURE method, developed in the framework of information field theory, is to start with an assumed calibration to successively include more and more portions of calibration uncertainty into the signal inference equations and to absorb the resulting corrections into renormalized signal (and calibration) solutions. Thereby, the signal inference and calibration problem turns into a problem of solving a single system of ordinary differential equations and can be identified with common resummation techniques used in field theories. We verify the CURE method by applying it to a simplistic toy example and compare it against existent self-calibration schemes, Wiener filter solutions, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We conclude that the method is able to keep up in accuracy with the best self-calibration methods and serves as a noniterative alternative to them.

  1. BROAD-LINE REGION PHYSICAL CONDITIONS IN EXTREME POPULATION A QUASARS: A METHOD TO ESTIMATE CENTRAL BLACK HOLE MASS AT HIGH REDSHIFT

    SciTech Connect

    Negrete, C. Alenka; Dultzin, Deborah; Marziani, Paola; Sulentic, Jack W. E-mail: deborah@astro.unam.mx E-mail: sulentic@iaa.es

    2012-09-20

    We describe a method for estimating physical conditions in the broad-line region (BLR) for a significant subsample of Seyfert 1 nuclei and quasars. Several diagnostic ratios based on intermediate (Al III {lambda}1860, Si III] {lambda}1892) and high (C IV {lambda}1549, Si IV {lambda}1397) ionization lines in the UV spectra of quasars are used to constrain density, ionization, and metallicity of the emitting gas. We apply the method to two extreme Population A quasars-the prototypical NLSy1 I Zw 1 and higher z source SDSS J120144.36+011611.6. Under assumptions of spherical symmetry and pure photoionization we infer BLR physical conditions: low ionization (ionization parameter <10{sup -2}), high density (10{sup 12}-10{sup 13} cm{sup -3}), and significant metal enrichment. Ionization parameter and density can be derived independently for each source with an uncertainty that is less than {+-}0.3 dex. We use the product of density and ionization parameter to estimate the BLR radius and derive an estimation of the virial black hole mass (M{sub BH}). Estimates of M{sub BH} based on the 'photoionization' analysis described in this paper are probably more accurate than those derived from the mass-luminosity correlations widely employed to compute black hole masses for high-redshift quasars.

  2. Some classes of estimators in the presence of non-response using auxiliary attribute.

    PubMed

    Riaz, Saba; Darda, Md Abud

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, possible solutions of problem of non-response in the variable of interest are proposed when information about an auxiliary attribute is available. By taking motivation from the previous work, modified classes have been suggested for estimating population mean. Two new generalized classes of estimators are presented along with their asymptotic biases and variances. Efficacy analysis of the suggested classes is acquired with the usual regression estimator. Two real examples have been provided to show the efficiency of the proposed design approach and comparison of suggested estimators with the linear regression estimator. PMID:27540504

  3. A preliminary estimate of the EUVE cumulative distribution of exposure time on the unit sphere. [Extreme Ultra-Violet Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, C. C. H.

    1984-01-01

    A preliminary study of an all-sky coverage of the EUVE mission is given. Algorithms are provided to compute the exposure of the celestial sphere under the spinning telescopes, taking into account that during part of the exposure time the telescopes are blocked by the earth. The algorithms are used to give an estimate of exposure time at different ecliptic latitudes as a function of the angle of field of view of the telescope. Sample coverage patterns are also given for a 6-month mission.

  4. A Study of Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Response Time Models in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suh, Hongwook

    2010-01-01

    Response time has been regarded as an important source for investigating the relationship between human performance and response speed. It is important to examine the relationship between response time and item characteristics, especially in the perspective of the relationship between response time and various factors that affect examinee's…

  5. Estimation of Sensitive Proportion by Randomized Response Data in Successive Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Jiayong

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of estimation for binomial proportions of sensitive or stigmatizing attributes in the population of interest. Randomized response techniques are suggested for protecting the privacy of respondents and reducing the response bias while eliciting information on sensitive attributes. In many sensitive question surveys, the same population is often sampled repeatedly on each occasion. In this paper, we apply successive sampling scheme to improve the estimation of the sensitive proportion on current occasion. PMID:26089958

  6. A note on the estimation of the multinomial logistic model with correlated responses in SAS.

    PubMed

    Kuss, Oliver; McLerran, Dale

    2007-09-01

    We show how multinomial logistic models with correlated responses can be estimated within SAS software. To achieve this, random effects and marginal models are introduced and the respective SAS code is given. An example data set on physicians' recommendations and preferences in traumatic brain injury rehabilitation is used for illustration. The main motivation for this work are two recent papers that recommend estimating multinomial logistic models with correlated responses by using a Poisson likelihood which is statistically correct but computationally inefficient. PMID:17686544

  7. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-01-01

    The extent to which species' traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework. PMID:26929387

  8. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-01-01

    The extent to which species’ traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework. PMID:26929387

  9. Umbilical cord gene expression reveals the molecular architecture of the fetal inflammatory response in extremely preterm newborns

    PubMed Central

    Costa, Daniel; Castelo, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Background: The fetal inflammatory response (FIR) in placental membranes to an intrauterine infection often precedes premature birth raising neonatal mortality and morbidity. However, the precise molecular events behind FIR still remain largely unknown, and little has been investigated at gene expression level. Methods: We collected publicly available microarray expression data profiling umbilical cord (UC) tissue derived from the cohort of extremely low gestational age newborns (ELGANs) and interrogate them for differentially expressed (DE) genes between FIR and non–FIR-affected ELGANs. Results: We found a broad and complex FIR UC gene expression signature, changing up to 19% (3,896/20,155) of all human genes at 1% false discovery rate. Significant changes of a minimum 50% magnitude (1,097/3,896) affect the upregulation of many inflammatory pathways and molecules, such as cytokines, toll-like receptors, and calgranulins. Remarkably, they also include the downregulation of neurodevelopmental pathways and genes, such as Fragile-X mental retardation 1 (FMR1), contactin 1 (CNTN1), and adenomatous polyposis coli (APC). Conclusion: The FIR expression signature in UC tissue contains molecular clues about signaling pathways that trigger FIR, and it is consistent with an acute inflammatory response by fetal innate and adaptive immune systems, which participate in the pathogenesis of neonatal brain damage. PMID:26539667

  10. Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.; Thissen, David

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the…

  11. Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Density Using Davidian Curves

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.; Lin, Nan

    2009-01-01

    Davidian-curve item response theory (DC-IRT) is introduced, evaluated with simulations, and illustrated using data from the Schedule for Nonadaptive and Adaptive Personality Entitlement scale. DC-IRT is a method for fitting unidimensional IRT models with maximum marginal likelihood estimation, in which the latent density is estimated,…

  12. Measurement Error in Nonparametric Item Response Curve Estimation. Research Report. ETS RR-11-28

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Hongwen; Sinharay, Sandip

    2011-01-01

    Nonparametric, or kernel, estimation of item response curve (IRC) is a concern theoretically and operationally. Accuracy of this estimation, often used in item analysis in testing programs, is biased when the observed scores are used as the regressor because the observed scores are contaminated by measurement error. In this study, we investigate…

  13. Direct Estimation of Correlation as a Measure of Association Strength Using Multidimensional Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-Chung

    2004-01-01

    The Pearson correlation is used to depict effect sizes in the context of item response theory. Amultidimensional Rasch model is used to directly estimate the correlation between latent traits. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate whether the population correlation could be accurately estimated and whether the bootstrap method…

  14. Bi-Factor Multidimensional Item Response Theory Modeling for Subscores Estimation, Reliability, and Classification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Md Desa, Zairul Nor Deana

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, there has been increasing interest in estimating and improving subscore reliability. In this study, the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) and the bi-factor model were combined to estimate subscores, to obtain subscores reliability, and subscores classification. Both the compensatory and partially compensatory MIRT…

  15. A Note on the Reliability Coefficients for Item Response Model-Based Ability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Seonghoon

    2012-01-01

    Assuming item parameters on a test are known constants, the reliability coefficient for item response theory (IRT) ability estimates is defined for a population of examinees in two different ways: as (a) the product-moment correlation between ability estimates on two parallel forms of a test and (b) the squared correlation between the true…

  16. Evaluating the Robustness of Graded Response Model and Classical Test Theory Parameter Estimates to Deviant Items.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinar, Evan F.; Zickar, Michael J.

    2002-01-01

    Examined the influence of deviant scale items on item parameter estimates of focal scale items and person parameter estimates through a comparison of item response theory (IRT) and classical test theory (CTT) models. Used Monte Carlo methods to explore results from a pilot investigation of job attitude data. Discusses implications for researchers…

  17. Population and osmoregulatory responses of a euryhaline fish to extreme salinity fluctuations in coastal lagoons of the Coorong, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wedderburn, Scotte D.; Bailey, Colin P.; Delean, Steven; Paton, David C.

    2016-01-01

    River flows and salinity are key factors structuring fish assemblages in estuaries. The osmoregulatory ability of a fish determines its capacity to tolerate rising salt levels when dispersal is unfeasible. Estuarine fishes can tolerate minor fluctuations in salinity, but a relatively small number of species in a few families can inhabit extreme hypersaline waters. The Murray-Darling Basin drains an extensive area of south-eastern Australia and river flows end at the mouth of the River Murray. The system is characterized by erratic rainfall and highly variable flows which have been reduced by intensive river regulation and water extraction. The Coorong is a coastal lagoon system extending some 110 km south-eastwards from the mouth. It is an inverted estuary with a salinity gradient that typically ranges from estuarine to triple that of sea water. Hypersalinity in the southern region suits a select suite of biota, including the smallmouth hardyhead Atherinosoma microstoma - a small-bodied, euryhaline fish with an annual life cycle. The population response of A. microstoma in the Coorong was examined during a period of considerable hydrological variation and extreme salinity fluctuations (2001-2014), and the findings were related to its osmoregulatory ability. Most notably, the species was extirpated from over 50% of its range during four continuous years without river flows when salinities exceeded 120 (2007-2010). These salinities exceeded the osmoregulatory ability of A. microstoma. Substantial river flows that reached the Coorong in late 2010 and continued into 2011 led salinities to fall below 100 throughout the Coorong by January 2012. Subsequently, A. microstoma recovered to its former range by January 2012. The findings show that the consequences of prolonged periods of insufficient river flows to temperate inverted estuaries will include substantial declines in the range of highly euryhaline fishes, which also may have wider ecological consequences.

  18. The Dynamic Response of Marine Life to Extreme Temperature and Low Oxygen Events Following the End-Permian Mass Extinction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietsch, C.; Bottjer, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most devastating taxonomic and ecological crisis in the history of life on Earth. The recovery lasted 5 My making it the longest in geologic history, although the cause of the delay is still heavily debated. We find that additional environmental changes during the recovery interval reset the attempts that marine communities made toward ecological complexity, resulting in the overall appearance of a stagnant recovery. The extinction mechanisms during the end-Permian include extreme temperature change and low oxygen environments resulting from the volcanic emission of carbon dioxide and other toxic gasses to the atmosphere. The biotic response to ancient environmental change is a direct analog for the ecological impacts of modern anthropogenic climate change. We applied an ecological recovery rubric to benthic, sea floor dwelling, communities throughout the Early Triassic recovery in two major ocean basins. Newly collected bulk fossil data from the Moenkopi and Thaynes Formations from the Southwest US and the Werfen Formation in Italy were analyzed along with literature data. In Italy, directly following the extinction, low oxygen environments prevented an ecological rebound. Once low oxygen conditions receded, 600 kyr after the extinction, taxonomic diversity, fossil body size, and trace fossil complexity rebounded. A little more than 1 My into the Early Triassic, an extreme temperature event resulted in a reset of community complexity in both Italy and the Southwest US. The body size of gastropods and the repopulation of echinoderms were significantly inhibited as was trace fossil complexity. Low oxygen conditions that developed in the last ~2My of the Early Triassic limited diversity and body size in the Southwest United States. The stagnant recovery is re-interpreted as dynamic resets and rapid rebounds driven by environmental perturbations throughout the Early Triassic.

  19. Calculation of Coupled Vibroacoustics Response Estimates from a Library of Available Uncoupled Transfer Function Sets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Hunt, Ron; Fulcher, Clay; Towner, Robert; McDonald, Emmett

    2012-01-01

    The design and theoretical basis of a new database tool that quickly generates vibroacoustic response estimates using a library of transfer functions (TFs) is discussed. During the early stages of a launch vehicle development program, these response estimates can be used to provide vibration environment specification to hardware vendors. The tool accesses TFs from a database, combines the TFs, and multiplies these by input excitations to estimate vibration responses. The database is populated with two sets of uncoupled TFs; the first set representing vibration response of a bare panel, designated as H(sup s), and the second set representing the response of the free-free component equipment by itself, designated as H(sup c). For a particular configuration undergoing analysis, the appropriate H(sup s) and H(sup c) are selected and coupled to generate an integrated TF, designated as H(sup s +c). This integrated TF is then used with the appropriate input excitations to estimate vibration responses. This simple yet powerful tool enables a user to estimate vibration responses without directly using finite element models, so long as suitable H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets are defined in the database libraries. The paper discusses the preparation of the database tool and provides the assumptions and methodologies necessary to combine H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets into an integrated H(sup s + c). An experimental validation of the approach is also presented.

  20. Aerobic stabilization of biological sludge characterized by an extremely low decay rate: modeling, identifiability analysis and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Martínez-García, C G; Olguín, M T; Fall, C

    2014-08-01

    Aerobic digestion batch tests were run on a sludge model that contained only two fractions, the heterotrophic biomass (XH) and its endogenous residue (XP). The objective was to describe the stabilization of the sludge and estimate the endogenous decay parameters. Modeling was performed with Aquasim, based on long-term data of volatile suspended solids and chemical oxygen demand (VSS, COD). Sensitivity analyses were carried out to determine the conditions for unique identifiability of the parameters. Importantly, it was found that the COD/VSS ratio of the endogenous residues (1.06) was significantly lower than for the active biomass fraction (1.48). The decay rate constant of the studied sludge (low bH, 0.025 d(-1)) was one-tenth that usually observed (0.2d(-1)), which has two main practical significances. Digestion time required is much more long; also the oxygen uptake rate might be <1.5 mg O₂/gTSSh (biosolids standards), without there being significant decline in the biomass. PMID:24907570

  1. Cropland responses to extreme winter temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2011-12-01

    In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate warming. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, extreme events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (winter) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler winter. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late winter with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), warming (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Preliminary results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the warming and cooling treatments, respectively). However, warming had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not

  2. Cropland responses to extreme winter temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2012-04-01

    In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate warming. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, extreme events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (winter) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler winter. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late winter with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), warming (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the warming and cooling treatments, respectively). However, warming had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not significantly different

  3. The role of antioxidant responses on the tolerance range of extreme halophyte Salsola crassa grown under toxic salt concentrations.

    PubMed

    Yildiztugay, Evren; Ozfidan-Konakci, Ceyda; Kucukoduk, Mustafa

    2014-12-01

    Salsola crassa (Amaranthaceae) is an annual halophytic species and naturally grows in arid soils that are toxic to most plants. In order to study the effects of salinity on their antioxidant system and to determine the tolerance range against salt stress, S. crassa seeds were grown with different concentrations of NaCl (0, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250 and 1500mM) for short (15d) and long-term (30d). Results showed that growth (RGR), water content (RWC) and osmotic potential (ΨΠ) decreased and, proline content (Pro) increased at prolonged salt treatment. Unlike K(+) and Ca(2+) contents, S. crassa highly accumulated Na(+) and Cl(-) contents. Chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) only decreased in response to 1500mM NaCl at 30d. No salt stimulation of superoxide anion radical (O2(•-)) content was observed in plants treated with the range of 0-500mM NaCl during the experimental period. NaCl increased superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity depending on intensities of Mn-SOD and Fe-SOD isozymes except in 1500mM NaCl-treated plants at 30d. In contrast to catalase (CAT), peroxidase (POX) activity increased throughout the experiment. Also, salinity caused an increase in glutathione reductase (GR) and glutathione peroxidase (GPX) and decreased in ascorbate peroxidase (APX), monodehydroascorbate reductase (MDHAR) and dehydroascorbate reductase (DHAR) at 15d. Both total ascorbate (tAsA) and glutathione (tGlut) contents significantly increased in treated plants with 1000-1500mM NaCl at 15d. After 0-1000mM NaCl stress, H2O2 and TBARS contents were similar to control groups at 15d, which were consistent with the increased antioxidant activity (POX, GR and GPX). However, H2O2 content was more pronounced at 30d. Therefore, S. crassa exhibited inductions in lipid peroxidation (TBARS content) in response to extreme salt concentrations. These results suggest that S. crassa is tolerant to salt-induced damage at short-term treatments as well as extreme salt concentrations. PMID:25193881

  4. Consequences of Ignoring Guessing when Estimating the Latent Density in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.

    2008-01-01

    In Ramsay-curve item response theory (RC-IRT), the latent variable distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters. In extant Monte Carlo evaluations of RC-IRT, the item response function (IRF) used to fit the data is the same one used to generate the data. The present simulation study examines RC-IRT when the IRF is imperfectly…

  5. Estimation of dose-response models for discrete and continuous data in weed science

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Dose-response analysis is widely used in biological sciences and has application to a variety of risk assessment, bioassay, and calibration problems. In weed science, dose-response methodologies have typically relied on least squares estimation under an assumption of normality. Advances in computati...

  6. Estimation of Item Response Models Using the EM Algorithm for Finite Mixtures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woodruff, David J.; Hanson, Bradley A.

    This paper presents a detailed description of maximum parameter estimation for item response models using the general EM algorithm. In this paper the models are specified using a univariate discrete latent ability variable. When the latent ability variable is discrete the distribution of the observed item responses is a finite mixture, and the EM…

  7. Response of precipitation extremes to global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: towards robust projection from regional to global scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; Williamson, D.; Olson, J.

    2010-12-01

    Robust projection of precipitation extremes is essential for human society to prepare for future climate change. To understand the inconsistencies of the projections across the climate models, a series of idealized “aquaplanet” AGCM runs have been performed with CAM3 to investigate the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. The absence of orography helps diagnose the response of the physics responsible for extreme rainfall to change with resolution. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes compared with mean precipitation. Model horizontal-resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in the low-mid latitudes, but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates the need for resolution-invariant treatment of atmospheric processes.

  8. Loss Factor Estimation Using the Impulse Response Decay Method on a Stiffened Structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cabell, Randolph; Schiller, Noah; Allen, Albert; Moeller, Mark

    2009-01-01

    High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.

  9. Estimating the impulse response of buried objects from ground-penetrating radar signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Lijn, Fedde; Roth, Friedrich; Verhaegen, Michel

    2003-09-01

    This paper presents a novel deconvolution algorithm designed to estimate the impulse response of buried objects based on ground penetrating radar (GPR) signals. The impulse response is a rich source of information about the buried object and therefore very useful for intelligent signal processing of GPR data. For example, it can be used in a target classification scheme to reduce the false alarm rate in demining operations. Estimating the target impulse response from the incident and scattered radar signals is a basic deconvolution problem. However, noise sensitivity and ground dispersion prevent the use of simple deconvolution methods like linear least squares deconvolution. Instead, a new deconvolution algorithm has been developed that computes estimates adhering to a physical impulse response model and that can be characterized by a limited number of parameters. It is shown that the new algorithm is robust with respect to noise and that it can deal with ground dispersion. The general performance of the algorithm has been tested on data generated by finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulations. The results demonstrate that the algorithm can distinguish between different dielectric and metal targets, making it very suitable for use in a classification scheme. Moreover, since the estimated impulse responses have physical meaning they can be related to target characteristics such as size and material properties. A direct application of this is the estimation of the permittivity of a dielectric target from its impulse response and that of a calibration target.

  10. Modeling ocean response to an extreme Bora event in Northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere-ocean coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ličer, M.; Smerkol, P.; Fettich, A.; Ravdas, M.; Papapostolou, A.; Mantziafou, A.; Strajnar, B.; Cedilnik, J.; Jeromel, M.; Jerman, J.; Petan, S.; Malačič, V.; Sofianos, S.

    2015-07-01

    We study the performances of (a) fully two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmospheric model hourly output), as compared to the available in situ (mooring and CTD) measurements during and after an strong Bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air-sea interactions and record breaking seawater cooling and dense water formation in Northern Adriatic. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (4.4 km resolution) on the atmospheric side and Adriatic setup of POM (1°/30 × 1°/30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere-ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. We show, using in situ seawater temperature measurements, that the two-way atmosphere-ocean coupling improves the ocean response to Bora because it captures transient Bora-induced cooling better than the one-way coupled version of the ocean model. We show that this difference stems mainly from an underestimation of air-sea temperature difference in one-way coupled system during the Bora episode, leading to an underestimation of sensible heat losses from the ocean in the one-way coupled system. We show these losses exhibit significant impact on baroclinic circulation on synoptic timescales. We use CTD observations in the Gulf of Trieste to show that when compared to the one-way setup, the two-way coupled system produces a similar estimation of salinities and density anomalies before the Bora episode, but a significantly better estimation of these quantities afterwards.

  11. Approximate-model based estimation method for dynamic response of forging processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Jie; Lu, Xinjiang; Li, Yibo; Huang, Minghui; Zou, Wei

    2015-03-01

    Many high-quality forging productions require the large-sized hydraulic press machine (HPM) to have a desirable dynamic response. Since the forging process is complex under the low velocity, its response is difficult to estimate. And this often causes the desirable low-velocity forging condition difficult to obtain. So far little work has been found to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under low velocity. In this paper, an approximate-model based estimation method is proposed to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under low velocity. First, an approximate model is developed to represent the forging process of this complex HPM around the low-velocity working point. Under guaranteeing the modeling performance, the model may greatly ease the complexity of the subsequent estimation of the dynamic response because it has a good linear structure. On this basis, the dynamic response is estimated and the conditions for stability, vibration, and creep are derived according to the solution of the velocity. All these analytical results are further verified by both simulations and experiment. In the simulation verification for modeling, the original movement model and the derived approximate model always have the same dynamic responses with very small approximate error. The simulations and experiment finally demonstrate and test the effectiveness of the derived conditions for stability, vibration, and creep, and these conditions will benefit both the prediction of the dynamic response of the forging process and the design of the controller for the high-quality forging. The proposed method is an effective solution to achieve the desirable low-velocity forging condition.

  12. Climate change impacts: The challenge of quantifying multi-factor causation, multi-component responses, and leveraging from extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, C. B.

    2012-12-01

    Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this

  13. Executive functions in extremely low birth weight and late-preterm preschoolers: effects on working memory and response inhibition.

    PubMed

    Baron, Ida Sue; Kerns, Kimberly A; Müller, Ulrich; Ahronovich, Margot D; Litman, Fern R

    2012-01-01

    Executive function (EF) refers to fundamental capacities that underlie more complex cognition and have ecological relevance across the individual's lifespan. However, emerging executive functions have rarely been studied in young preterm children (age 3) whose critical final stages of fetal development are interrupted by their early birth. We administered four novel touch-screen computerized measures of working memory and inhibition to 369 participants born between 2004 and 2006 (52 Extremely Low Birth Weight [ELBW]; 196 late preterm; 121 term-born). ELBW performed worse than term-born on simple and complex working memory and inhibition tasks and had the highest percentage of incomplete performance on a continuous performance test. The latter finding indicates developmental immaturity and the ELBW group's most at-risk preterm status. Additionally, late-preterm participants performed worse compared with term-born on measures of complex working memory but did not differ from those term-born on response inhibition measures. These results are consistent with a recent literature that identifies often subtle but detectable neurocognitive deficits in late-preterm children. Our results support the development and standardization of computerized touch-screen measures to assess EF subcomponent abilities during the formative preschool period. Such measures may be useful to monitor the developmental trajectory of critical executive function abilities in preterm children, and their use is necessary for timely recognition of deficit and application of appropriate interventional strategies. PMID:22122351

  14. Estimation of seismic response of buildings with a few accelerometers without input data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Yu; Mita, Akira

    2016-04-01

    To assess the health of buildings, maximum inter-story drift angle is recognized as an important indicator. If we have to estimate maximum inter-story drift angle very precisely, we need to install accelerometers on all floors. However, it is not realistic due to the cost. In many methods to estimate the response using small number of accelerometers, the excitation (input) is assumed to be available. However, in some cases, some sensors including the input sensor may not be available. Thus, in this paper, we propose a method for the estimating inter-story drift angle using small number of accelerometers without knowing input information. The proposed method is based on two assumptions. One is that the response is represented by the superposition of the response of only lower modes. The other is that mode vectors and participation factors are available from the structural design model. Based on the assumption, first, we estimate modal frequencies and damping ratios using the subspace method from obtained acceleration data. Second, we decompose observed acceleration data to each mode by solving simultaneous equations using pseudo-inverse matrix. Third, we calculate mode response by focusing on the vibration equation of each mode. It was verified that this method could successfully estimate the modal response as well as the inter-story drift angles.

  15. Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

    2016-01-01

    The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the

  16. Inhibitory Response Capacities of Bilateral Lower and Upper Extremities in Children with Developmental Coordination Disorder in Endogenous and Exogenous Orienting Modes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, Chia-Liang; Yu, Yi-Kai; Chen, Yung-Jung; Wu, Sheng-Kuang

    2009-01-01

    This study was designed to investigate separately the inhibitory response capacity and the lateralization effect in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) in the endogenous and exogenous modes of orienting attention. Children with DCD on the lower extremities (DCD-LEs), along with age-matched controls, completed four tasks that…

  17. A Spatio-Temporal Framework for MEG/EEG Evoked Response Amplitude and Latency Variability Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Limpiti, Tulaya; Van Veen, Barry D.; Wakai, Ronald T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a spatio-temporal framework for estimating single-trial response latencies and amplitudes from evoked response MEG/EEG data. Spatial and temporal bases are employed to capture the aspects of the evoked response that are consistent across trials. Trial amplitudes are assumed independent but have the same underlying normal distribution with unknown mean and variance. The trial latency is assumed to be deterministic but unknown. We assume the noise is spatially correlated with unknown covariance matrix. We introduce a generalized expectation-maximization algorithm called TriViAL (Trial Variability in Amplitude and Latency) which computes the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the amplitudes, latencies, basis coefficients, and noise covariance matrix. The proposed approach also performs ML source localization by scanning the TriViAL algorithm over spatial bases corresponding to different locations on the cortical surface. Source locations are identified as the locations corresponding to large likelihood values. The effectiveness of the TriViAL algorithm is demonstrated using simulated data and human evoked response experiments. The localization performance is validated using tactile stimulation of the finger. The efficacy of the algorithm in estimating latency variability is shown using the known dependence of the M100 auditory response latency to stimulus tone frequency. We also demonstrate that estimation of response amplitude is improved when latency is included in the signal model. PMID:19789097

  18. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Morita, Shigeru; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Dong, Chunfeng; Zhang, Hongmin; Huang, Xianli; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang

    2015-12-01

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm(2) and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm(2)/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ0 = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ0 is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification. PMID:26724029

  19. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Ling; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang; Morita, Shigeru; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Dong, Chunfeng; and others

    2015-12-15

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm{sup 2} and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm{sup 2}/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ{sub 0} = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ{sub 0} is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification.

  20. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Morita, Shigeru; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Dong, Chunfeng; Zhang, Hongmin; Huang, Xianli; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang

    2015-12-01

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm2 and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm2/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ0 = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ0 is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification.

  1. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    SciTech Connect

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  2. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: towards a robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Fuyu; Collins, William D.; Wehner, Michael F.; Williamson, David L.; Olson, Jerry G.

    2011-10-01

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  3. Simplified Estimating Method for Shock Response Spectrum Envelope of V-Band Clamp Separation Shock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwasa, Takashi; Shi, Qinzhong

    A simplified estimating method for the Shock Response Spectrum (SRS) envelope at the spacecraft interface near the V-band clamp separation device has been established. This simplified method is based on the pyroshock analysis method with a single degree of freedom (D.O.F) model proposed in our previous paper. The parameters required in the estimating method are only geometrical information of the interface and a tension of the V-band clamp. According to the use of these parameters, a simplified calculation of the SRS magnitude at the knee frequency is newly proposed. By comparing the estimation results with actual pyroshock test results, it was verified that the SRS envelope estimated with the simplified method appropriately covered the pyroshock test data of the actual space satellite systems except some specific high frequency responses.

  4. Primary production response to seasonal-scale extremes in the Bering Sea simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walston, J. M.; Gibson, G. A.; Walsh, J. E.

    2015-08-01

    The biological response to long-term trends and the co-occurrence of seasonal extremes of the physical environment and primary production in the eastern Bering Sea, as simulated by the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), are presented. This analysis covers the late-twentieth century (1950-2005) and focuses on critical drivers of the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem, including air temperature, sea ice area, wind mixing, and mixed layer depth. Primary production showed strong linear relationships to both air temperature and sea ice area during winter and spring. The only season that had a positive linear correspondence between wind mixing and primary production was summer. Over the fifty-five year period the CESM1 simulates a trend toward warmer air temperatures and a subsequent reduction in sea ice for every season; however, no trends were seen in seasonally averaged wind mixing or mixed layer depth. Corresponding to the air temperature increase was an increase in occurrence of positive seasonal extremes in primary production, as well as a reduction in negative production extremes. There were some instances of seasonal production extremes coinciding with seasonal extremes in the physical environment; however, neither these co-occurrences, nor the direction of the biological response to the physics, were robust throughout the study period.

  5. Whole-Exome Sequencing in Two Extreme Phenotypes of Response to VEGF-Targeted Therapies in Patients With Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Fay, Andre P; de Velasco, Guillermo; Ho, Thai H; Van Allen, Eliezer M; Murray, Bradley; Albiges, Laurence; Signoretti, Sabina; Hakimi, A Ari; Stanton, Melissa L; Bellmunt, Joaquim; McDermott, David F; Atkins, Michael B; Garraway, Levi A; Kwiatkowski, David J; Choueiri, Toni K

    2016-07-01

    Advances in next-generation sequencing have provided a unique opportunity to understand the biology of disease and mechanisms of sensitivity or resistance to specific agents. Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is a heterogeneous disease and highly variable clinical responses have been observed with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-targeted therapy (VEGF-TT). We hypothesized that whole-exome sequencing analysis might identify genotypes associated with extreme response or resistance to VEGF-TT in metastatic (mRCC). Patients with mRCC who had received first-line sunitinib or pazopanib and were in 2 extreme phenotypes of response were identified. Extreme responders (ERs) were defined as those with partial response or complete response for 3 or more years (n=13) and primary refractory patients (PRPs) were defined as those with progressive disease within the first 3 months of therapy (n=14). International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium prognostic scores were not significantly different between the groups (P=.67). Considering the genes known to be mutated in RCC at significant frequency, PBRM1 mutations were identified in 7 ERs (54%) versus 1 PRP (7%) (P=.01). In addition, mutations in TP53 (n=4) were found only in PRPs (P=.09). Our data suggest that mutations in some genes in RCC may impact response to VEGF-TT. PMID:27407122

  6. Application of Autoregressive Models to In-Service Estimation of Transient Response for LMFBR Process Instrumentation

    SciTech Connect

    Ueda, Masashi; Tomobe, Katsuma; Setoguchi, Keiichi; Endou, Akira

    2002-02-15

    The response of a sensor depends on its operating conditions, and thus it is desirable to develop an in-service method for response time estimation. The applicability of the autoregressive (AR) model for this purpose was examined in the case of the fuel subassembly outlet coolant thermocouples and the primary circuit electromagnetic flowmeter (EMF) of Monju, the prototype fast breeder reactor in Japan.The use of an AR model with exogenous input (ARX model) is possible when the physical variable to be sensed can be observed by an alternative means with a faster response time than that of the sensor in question. In the case of the subassembly outlet thermocouple, the temperature output from an eddy-current sensor, during pseudorandom reactor power variation, served as the exogenous input.In respect to the thermocouple response, AR and ARX modeling were shown to be applicable, and the transient responses thus derived agreed well with each other and with the results measured by means of a step change in sodium temperature. However, the primary circuit EMF response time, estimated using the AR model, decreased with increasing flow rate even when approaching the rated flow, demonstrating that the method was not completely applicable. Nevertheless, it can be concluded that the response is faster than that estimated in the rated condition.

  7. Sample Size Requirements for Estimation of Item Parameters in the Multidimensional Graded Response Model

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Shengyu; Wang, Chun; Weiss, David J

    2016-01-01

    Likert types of rating scales in which a respondent chooses a response from an ordered set of response options are used to measure a wide variety of psychological, educational, and medical outcome variables. The most appropriate item response theory model for analyzing and scoring these instruments when they provide scores on multiple scales is the multidimensional graded response model (MGRM) A simulation study was conducted to investigate the variables that might affect item parameter recovery for the MGRM. Data were generated based on different sample sizes, test lengths, and scale intercorrelations. Parameter estimates were obtained through the flexMIRT software. The quality of parameter recovery was assessed by the correlation between true and estimated parameters as well as bias and root-mean-square-error. Results indicated that for the vast majority of cases studied a sample size of N = 500 provided accurate parameter estimates, except for tests with 240 items when 1000 examinees were necessary to obtain accurate parameter estimates. Increasing sample size beyond N = 1000 did not increase the accuracy of MGRM parameter estimates. PMID:26903916

  8. Rapid estimation of frequency response functions by close-range photogrammetry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tripp, J. S.

    1985-01-01

    The accuracy of a rapid method which estimates the frequency response function from stereoscopic dynamic data is computed. It is shown that reversal of the order of the operations of coordinate transformation and Fourier transformation, which provides a significant increase in computational speed, introduces error. A portion of the error, proportional to the perturbation components normal to the camera focal planes, cannot be eliminated. The remaining error may be eliminated by proper scaling of frequency data prior to coordinate transformation. Methods are developed for least squares estimation of the full 3x3 frequency response matrix for a three dimensional structure.

  9. An estimate of the response of a telephone repeater to a wideband pulse using FAAT techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Bacon, L.D.; Hoffman, J.M.

    1992-09-01

    The purpose of a FAAT analysis is to estimate the probability of system upset to an electromagnetic threat, for systems on which we have incomplete information. As an example of this process, we will discuss the response of part of a telephone repeater system to wideband transients. We first estimate the currents induced on above-ground and buried cables. After that, we describe the simple circuit we used to build a model of the amplifier and protective devices. Finally, we describe the scaling of the energy deposited in the electronics, including its nonlinear large-signal response, with the amplitude of the wideband waveforms.

  10. Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2015-05-01

    On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are

  11. Extremely low frequency pulsed electromagnetic field designed for antinociception does not affect microvascular responsiveness to the vasodilator acetylcholine.

    PubMed

    McKay, Julia C; Corbacio, Michael; Tyml, Karel; Prato, Frank S; Thomas, Alex W

    2010-01-01

    A 225 microT, extremely low frequency, pulsed electromagnetic field (PEMF) that was designed for the induction of antinociception, was tested for its effectiveness to influence blood flow within the skeletal microvasculature of a male Sprague-Dawley rat model (n = 103). Acetylcholine (0.1, 1.0, or 10 mM) was used to perturb normal blood flow and to delineate differential effects of the PEMF, based on degree of vessel dilation. After both 30 and 60 min of PEMF exposure, we report no effects on peak perfusion response to acetylcholine (with only 0.2% of the group difference attributed to exposure). Spectral analysis of blood flow data was generated to obtain information related to myogenic activity (0.15-0.40 Hz), respiratory rate (0.4-2.0 Hz), and heart rate (2.0-7.0 Hz), including the peak frequency within each of the three frequency regions identified above, peak power, full width at half maximum (FWHM), and mean within band. No significant effects due to exposure were observed on myogenic activity of examined blood vessels, or on heart rate parameters. Anesthesia-induced respiratory depression was, however, significantly reduced following PEMF exposure compared to shams (although exposure only accounted for 9.4% of the group difference). This set of data suggest that there are no significant acute physiological effects of 225 microT PEMF after 30 and 60 min of exposure on peak blood flow, heart rate, and myogenic activity, but perhaps a small attenuation effect on anesthetic-induced respiratory depression. PMID:19644977

  12. Response of the low-latitude D region ionosphere to extreme space weather event of 14-16 December 2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Sushil; Kumar, Abhikesh; Menk, Frederick; Maurya, Ajeet K.; Singh, Rajesh; Veenadhari, B.

    2015-01-01

    response of the D region low-latitude ionosphere has been examined for extreme space weather event of 14-16 December 2006 associated with a X1.5 solar flare and an intense geomagnetic storm (Dst = -146 nT) using VLF signals from Northwest Cape, Australia (NWC) (19.8 kHz) and Lualualei, Hawaii (callsign NPM) (21.4 kHz) transmitters monitored at Suva (Geographic Coordinates, 18.10°S, 178.40°E), Fiji. Modeling of flare associated amplitude and phase enhancements of NWC (3.6 dB, 223°) and NPM (5 dB, 153°) using Long-Wave Propagation Capability code shows reduction in the D region reflection height (H') by 11.1 km and 9.4 km, and enhancement in ionization gradients described by increases in the exponential sharpness factor (β) by 0.122 and 0.126 km-1, for the NWC and NPM paths, respectively. During the storm the daytime signal strengths of the NWC and NPM signals were reduced by 3.2 dB on 15 and 16 December (for about 46 h) and recovered by 17 December. Modeling for the NWC path shows that storm time values of H' and β were reduced by 1.2 km and 0.06 km-1, respectively. Morlet wavelet analysis of signal amplitudes shows no clearly strong signatures of gravity wave propagation to low latitudes during the main and recovery phases. The reduction in VLF signal strength is due to increased signal attenuation and absorption by the Earth-ionosphere waveguide due to storm-induced D region ionization changes and hence changes in D region parameters. The long duration of the storm effect results from the slow diffusion of changed composition/ionization at D region altitudes compared with higher altitudes in the ionosphere.

  13. Total water storage dynamics in response to climate variability and extremes: Inference from long-term terrestrial gravity measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Creutzfeldt, Benjamin; Ferré, Ty; Troch, Peter; Merz, Bruno; Wziontek, Hartmut; Güntner, Andreas

    2012-04-01

    Terrestrial water storage is a basic element of the hydrological cycle and a key state variable for land surface-atmosphere interaction. However, measuring water storage in a comprehensive way for different storage compartments and beyond the point scale is a challenge. In this study, we explore a 10-year time series of total water storage changes derived from high-precision superconducting gravimeter observations in a headwater catchment in Southern Germany. In combination with hydro-meteorological data, we examine the relationship between gravity-derived water storage changes, climate, and river discharge. Distinct seasonal water storage dynamics observed by the gravimeter are strongly related to the meteorological forcing, in particular evapotranspiration. Intra-annual water storage variations demonstrate that the simplifying assumption of water storage averaging to zero at the annual scale is not valid for this catchment. At the event-scale, gravimeters provide a measure of the available subsurface water storage capacity, which can be useful for runoff prediction. During the Central European drought in 2003, the gravimeter data show a strong depletion of water storage and a long-term recovery that extended over a period of several years. In comparison to point measurements or different environmental indices, our findings suggest that depth-integrated gravimeter measurements give a more complete picture of the dynamics of a hydrologic system in response to climate variability and extremes. In view of the considerable costs of gravimeters concerning the infrastructure and measurements, we suggest the strategic deployment of gravimeters at selected sites of hydro-meteorological monitoring networks.

  14. Summary of methods for calculating dynamic lateral stability and response and for estimating aerodynamic stability derivatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O

    1952-01-01

    A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Detailed estimation methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic and supersonic speed conditions.

  15. Mayer waves reduce the accuracy of estimated hemodynamic response functions in functional near-infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Yücel, Meryem A; Selb, Juliette; Aasted, Christopher M; Lin, Pei-Yi; Borsook, David; Becerra, Lino; Boas, David A

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of cerebral hemodynamics reveals a wide spectrum of oscillations ranging from 0.0095 to 2 Hz. While most of these oscillations can be filtered out during analysis of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) signals when estimating stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses, oscillations around 0.1 Hz are an exception. This is due to the fact that they share a common spectral range with typical stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses from the brain. Here we investigate the effect of hemodynamic oscillations around 0.1 Hz on the estimation of hemodynamic response functions from fNIRS data. Our results show that for an expected response of ~1 µM in oxygenated hemoglobin concentration (HbO), Mayer wave oscillations with an amplitude > ~1 µM at 0.1 Hz reduce the accuracy of the estimated response as quantified by a 3 fold increase in the mean squared error and decrease in correlation (R(2) below 0.78) when compared to the true HRF. These results indicate that the amplitude of oscillations at 0.1 Hz can serve as an objective metric of the expected HRF estimation accuracy. In addition, we investigated the effect of short separation regression on the recovered HRF, and found that this improves the recovered HRF when large amplitude 0.1 Hz oscillations are present in fNIRS data. We suspect that the development of other filtering strategies may provide even further improvement. PMID:27570699

  16. Mayer waves reduce the accuracy of estimated hemodynamic response functions in functional near-infrared spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    Yücel, Meryem A.; Selb, Juliette; Aasted, Christopher M.; Lin, Pei-Yi; Borsook, David; Becerra, Lino; Boas, David A.

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of cerebral hemodynamics reveals a wide spectrum of oscillations ranging from 0.0095 to 2 Hz. While most of these oscillations can be filtered out during analysis of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) signals when estimating stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses, oscillations around 0.1 Hz are an exception. This is due to the fact that they share a common spectral range with typical stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses from the brain. Here we investigate the effect of hemodynamic oscillations around 0.1 Hz on the estimation of hemodynamic response functions from fNIRS data. Our results show that for an expected response of ~1 µM in oxygenated hemoglobin concentration (HbO), Mayer wave oscillations with an amplitude > ~1 µM at 0.1 Hz reduce the accuracy of the estimated response as quantified by a 3 fold increase in the mean squared error and decrease in correlation (R2 below 0.78) when compared to the true HRF. These results indicate that the amplitude of oscillations at 0.1 Hz can serve as an objective metric of the expected HRF estimation accuracy. In addition, we investigated the effect of short separation regression on the recovered HRF, and found that this improves the recovered HRF when large amplitude 0.1 Hz oscillations are present in fNIRS data. We suspect that the development of other filtering strategies may provide even further improvement. PMID:27570699

  17. Extreme drought events in Mediterranean forests: phenological response as a preemptive mechanisms for water and nitrogen conservation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misson, Laurent; Rambal, Serge; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rocheteau, Alain; Rodriguez, Raquel; Collin, Christian; Degueldre, David; Letts, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    Global climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense droughts in the Mediterranean region. To understand forest response to severe drought at different periods of the year, we used a mobile rainfall shelter to examine the impact of spring and autumn rainfall exclusion on phenology and photosynthesis in a holm oak (Quercus ilex) ecosystem. Leaf, female flower, fruit development and maturation were highly affected by the spring rainfall exclusion treatment because predawn leaf water potential started to decrease at the same time actual leaf and female flower were appearing. Half of the sampled trees did not show signs of bud burst and new leaf development. The spring exclusion treatment had much less effects on male flower, probably because they follow an earlier development than leaf and female flower and in consequence, they avoided the decrease in water potential. Spring rainfall exclusion, carried out during increasing atmospheric demand and leaf development, had a larger impact on photosynthesis than autumn exclusion, conducted at a time of mature foliage and decreasing vapour pressure deficit. The relative importance of NSL increased with drought intensity, including balanced reductions in assimilation due to mesophyll conductance (MCL) and biochemical processes (BL). Stomatal closure quickly limited net photosynthesis (An) under mild drought stress. Effects of SL and NSL were equal once total limitation (TL) reached 60%, with 15% contributions from both MCL and BL. Non-stomatal limitation greatly exceeded SL during severe drought, with 76% NSL partitioned equally between MCL and BL when TL reached 100%. Maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax) and An decreased by more than 70% by midsummer, in response to lower predawn water potential (φp). The relationship between φp and NSL was steeper than for SL, and the impact of BL was strong at low φp during spring exclusion. Leaf lifespan increased with spring exclusion and some trees did not produce

  18. Response of the extremely halophilic Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4 to UV radiation and space conditions in the EXPOSE -ADAPT project on the International Space Station

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fendrihan, Sergiu; Grosbacher, Michael; Stan-Lotter, Helga

    2010-05-01

    The international project ADAPT focuses on the response of different microorganisms to outer space conditions. In 2007, the European Space Agency (ESA) has installed the Columbus laboratory and the exposure facility EXPOSE-E on the International Space Station (ISS). One of the microorganisms that were exposed for 18 months on the ISS is Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4, an extremely halophilic archaeon which was isolated from about 250 million years old alpine salt deposits (1). Ground experiments with Hcc. dombrowskii included irradiation with different wavelengths and doses of UV, using a Hg low pressure lamp, a solar simulator SOL2 (both at the DLR, Cologne) and a Mars UV simulation lamp (2). Cells were embedded in halite crystals which were formed on quartz discs by evaporation of high salt buffers. Methods for analyzing the effects of exposure on Hcc. dombrowskii include the estimation of colony forming units (CFUs), staining for viability with the BacLight LIVE/DEAD kit (2), establishing long term liquid cultures and determination of the formation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs) with specific antibodies (3). Counting of viable (green) and dead (red) cells showed an apparent preservation of viability following exposure to about 21 kJ/m2 in ground experiments, but the calculated D37 (dose of 37 % survival) for Hcc. dombrowskii was about 400 kJ/m2 in salt crystals (2). CPDs were detected in about 6-8% of cells of Hcc. dombrowskii following exposure to a dose of 3000 kJ/m2 (200-400 nm). Preliminary results with the samples of Hcc. dombrowskii from the ISS suggested preservation of cellular morphology and stainability with the fluorescent dyes of the LIVE/DEAD kit, as well as formation of CPDs in about 2-3 % of the cells. The determination of the survival of cells by measuring proliferation requires months of incubation; data can be expected in May or June 2010. (1) Stan-Lotter H, Pfaffenhuemer M, Legat A, Busse H-J, Radax C, Gruber C (2002) Halococcus

  19. Laypersons’ Responses to the Communication of Uncertainty Regarding Cancer Risk Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Han, Paul K. J.; Klein, William M. P.; Lehman, Thomas C.; Massett, Holly; Lee, Simon C.; Freedman, Andrew N.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To explore laypersons’ responses to the communication of uncertainty associated with individualized cancer risk estimates and to identify reasons for individual differences in these responses. Design A qualitative study was conducted using focus groups. Participants were informed about a new colorectal cancer risk prediction model, and presented with hypothetical individualized risk estimates using presentation formats varying in expressed uncertainty (range v. point estimate). Semistructured interviews explored participants’ responses to this information. Participants and Setting Eight focus groups were conducted with 48 adults aged 50 to 74 residing in 2 major US metropolitan areas, Chicago, IL and Washington, DC. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants with a high school or greater education, some familiarity with information technology, and no personal or immediate family history of cancer. Results Participants identified several sources of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates, including missing data, limitations in accuracy and source credibility, and conflicting information. In comparing presentation formats, most participants reported greater worry and perceived risk with the range than with the point estimate, consistent with the phenomenon of “ambiguity aversion.” However, others reported the opposite effect or else indifference between formats. Reasons suggested by participants’ responses included individual differences in optimism and motivations to reduce feelings of vulnerability and personal lack of control. Perceptions of source credibility and risk mutability emerged as potential mediating factors. Conclusions Laypersons’ responses to the communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates differ, and include both heightened and diminished risk perceptions. These differences may be attributable to personality, cognitive, and motivational factors. PMID:19470720

  20. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may

  1. Plant Responses to Extreme Climatic Events: A Field Test of Resilience Capacity at the Southern Range Edge

    PubMed Central

    Herrero, Asier; Zamora, Regino

    2014-01-01

    The expected and already observed increment in frequency of extreme climatic events may result in severe vegetation shifts. However, stabilizing mechanisms promoting community resilience can buffer the lasting impact of extreme events. The present work analyzes the resilience of a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem after an extreme drought in 2005, examining shoot-growth and needle-length resistance and resilience of dominant tree and shrub species (Pinus sylvestris vs Juniperus communis, and P. nigra vs J. oxycedrus) in two contrasting altitudinal ranges. Recorded high vegetative-resilience values indicate great tolerance to extreme droughts for the dominant species of pine-juniper woodlands. Observed tolerance could act as a stabilizing mechanism in rear range edges, such as the Mediterranean basin, where extreme events are predicted to be more detrimental and recurrent. However, resistance and resilience components vary across species, sites, and ontogenetic states: adult Pinus showed higher growth resistance than did adult Juniperus; saplings displayed higher recovery rates than did conspecific adults; and P. nigra saplings displayed higher resilience than did P. sylvestris saplings where the two species coexist. P. nigra and J. oxycedrus saplings at high and low elevations, respectively, were the most resilient at all the locations studied. Under recurrent extreme droughts, these species-specific differences in resistance and resilience could promote changes in vegetation structure and composition, even in areas with high tolerance to dry conditions. PMID:24489971

  2. Theoretical limits on the threshold for the response of long cells to weak extremely low frequency electric fields due to ionic and molecular flux rectification.

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, J C; Vaughan, T E; Adair, R K; Astumian, R D

    1998-01-01

    Understanding exposure thresholds for the response of biological systems to extremely low frequency (ELF) electric and magnetic fields is a fundamental problem of long-standing interest. We consider a two-state model for voltage-gated channels in the membrane of an isolated elongated cell (Lcell = 1 mm; rcell = 25 micron) and use a previously described process of ionic and molecular flux rectification to set lower bounds for a threshold exposure. A key assumption is that it is the ability of weak physical fields to alter biochemistry that is limiting, not the ability of a small number of molecules to alter biological systems. Moreover, molecular shot noise, not thermal voltage noise, is the basis of threshold estimates. Models with and without stochastic resonance are used, with a long exposure time, texp = 10(4) s. We also determined the dependence of the threshold on the basal transport rate. By considering both spherical and elongated cells, we find that the lowest bound for the threshold is Emin approximately 9 x 10(-3) V m-1 (9 x 10(-5) V cm-1). Using a conservative value for the loop radius rloop = 0.3 m for induced current, the corresponding lower bound in the human body for a magnetic field exposure is Bmin approximately 6 x 10(-4) T (6 G). Unless large, organized, and electrically amplifying multicellular systems such as the ampullae of Lorenzini of elasmobranch fish are involved, these results strongly suggest that the biophysical mechanism of voltage-gated macromolecules in the membranes of cells can be ruled out as a basis of possible effects of weak ELF electric and magnetic fields in humans. PMID:9788920

  3. Two Prophecy Formulas for Assessing the Reliability of Item Response Theory-Based Ability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raju, Nambury S.; Oshima, T.C.

    2005-01-01

    Two new prophecy formulas for estimating item response theory (IRT)-based reliability of a shortened or lengthened test are proposed. Some of the relationships between the two formulas, one of which is identical to the well-known Spearman-Brown prophecy formula, are examined and illustrated. The major assumptions underlying these formulas are…

  4. Real-time estimation of the structural response using limited measured data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sedarat, Hassan; Talebinejad, Iman; Emami-Naeini, Abbas; Falck, David; van der Linden, Gwendolyn; Nobari, Farid; Krimotat, Alex; Lynch, Jerome

    2014-03-01

    This study introduces an efficient procedure to estimate the structural response of a suspension bridge in real-time based on a limited set of measured data. Unlike conventional techniques, the proposed procedure does not employ mode shapes and frequencies. In this study, the proposed technique is used to estimate the response of a suspension bridge structure based on a set of strain gauge measurements. Finite element analysis is performed only once to set up the structural parameters, namely computed flexibility matrix, and computed hanger forces matrix. The response of the bridge was estimated without any additional finite element analysis using the computed structural parameters and the measured hanger strains. The Alfred Zampa Memorial Bridge, on Interstate 80 in California, was selected for this study. A high fidelity finite element model of the bridge was developed using the general purpose computer program ADINA. The proposed method has been proven to have the capability to estimate any type of structural response in real time based on the measured hanger strains, and provides an important part of an integrated Structure Health Monitoring (SHM) system for major bridges.

  5. Using the Randomized Response Technique to Estimate the Extent of Delinquent Behavior in Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gottfredson, Gary D.

    The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) appears to have promise in future work which studies the relation of school variables to disruption or delinquent behavior. The RRT is especially useful in situations when it is difficult or undesirable directly to ask stigmatizing questions. The proportions of students in this study estimated to have used…

  6. Comparison of total body water estimates from O-18 and bioelectrical response prediction equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrows, Linda H.; Inners, L. Daniel; Stricklin, Marcella D.; Klein, Peter D.; Wong, William W.; Siconolfi, Steven F.

    1993-01-01

    Identification of an indirect, rapid means to measure total body water (TBW) during space flight may aid in quantifying hydration status and assist in countermeasure development. Bioelectrical response testing and hydrostatic weighing were performed on 27 subjects who ingested O-18, a naturally occurring isotope of oxygen, to measure true TBW. TBW estimates from three bioelectrical response prediction equations and fat-free mass (FFM) were compared to TBW measured from O-18. A repeated measures MANOVA with post-hoc Dunnett's Test indicated a significant (p less than 0.05) difference between TBW estimates from two of the three bioelectrical response prediction equations and O-18. TBW estimates from FFM and the Kushner & Schoeller (1986) equation yielded results that were similar to those given by O-18. Strong correlations existed between each prediction method and O-18; however, standard errors, identified through regression analyses, were higher for the bioelectrical response prediction equations compared to those derived from FFM. These findings suggest (1) the Kushner & Schoeller (1986) equation may provide a valid measure of TBW, (2) other TBW prediction equations need to be identified that have variability similar to that of FFM, and (3) bioelectrical estimates of TBW may prove valuable in quantifying hydration status during space flight.

  7. An NCME Instructional Module on Estimating Item Response Theory Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jee-Seon; Bolt, Daniel M.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation for item response models. A brief description of Bayesian inference is followed by an overview of the various facets of MCMC algorithms, including discussion of prior specification, sampling procedures, and methods for evaluating chain…

  8. Summary of Methods for Calculating Dynamic Lateral Stability and Response and for Estimating Lateral Stability Derivatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O

    1951-01-01

    A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Reference is also made to reports presenting experimental data that should be useful in making estimates of the derivatives. Detailed estimating methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic- and supersonic-speed conditions.

  9. The generation of shared cryptographic keys through channel impulse response estimation at 60 GHz.

    SciTech Connect

    Young, Derek P.; Forman, Michael A.; Dowdle, Donald Ryan

    2010-09-01

    Methods to generate private keys based on wireless channel characteristics have been proposed as an alternative to standard key-management schemes. In this work, we discuss past work in the field and offer a generalized scheme for the generation of private keys using uncorrelated channels in multiple domains. Proposed cognitive enhancements measure channel characteristics, to dynamically change transmission and reception parameters as well as estimate private key randomness and expiration times. Finally, results are presented on the implementation of a system for the generation of private keys for cryptographic communications using channel impulse-response estimation at 60 GHz. The testbed is composed of commercial millimeter-wave VubIQ transceivers, laboratory equipment, and software implemented in MATLAB. Novel cognitive enhancements are demonstrated, using channel estimation to dynamically change system parameters and estimate cryptographic key strength. We show for a complex channel that secret key generation can be accomplished on the order of 100 kb/s.

  10. Estimation of a transient response from steady-state responses by deconvolution with built-in constraints.

    PubMed

    Lütkenhöner, Bernd

    2016-09-01

    Evidence suggests that the steady-state response (SSR) elicited by a periodic train of auditory stimuli can largely be understood as a superposition of transient responses. This study is devoted to the problem of how to estimate that transient response from measured SSRs. The proposed method differs from previous approaches in that the solution can be constrained to be consistent with physiology-based prior knowledge or educated guesses. To achieve this goal, the transient response is not represented by a time series, but by a linear combination of auxiliary functions, called components. Constraints are introduced by assigning certain properties to the components. Only few parameters are required for that purpose, because the individual components are derived from a suitably designed mother component. After adjusting the components to the problem at hand, the component amplitudes are determined by optimizing the match between predicted and measured SSRs. This requires solving a linear inverse problem. A model simulation as well as an analysis of exemplary experimental data (auditory SSRs elicited by periodically presented clicks) prove the workability of the method. Since part of the theory is quite general, it would be relatively easy to refine and extend the method. Not only could responses other than SSRs be dealt with, it could also be realized that certain key parameters of the transient response, such as amplitude and delay, depend on stimulus repetition rate. PMID:27234643

  11. Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from

  12. Extreme coastal storms along the north coast of Ireland: hydrodynamic forcing and beach response during the winter seasons of 2013/14 and 2014/15

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loureiro, Carlos; Marianne, O'Connor; Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The increase in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude) and the occurrence of extreme coastal storms partly associated with climate change, represent pressing concerns for coastal communities in many regions globally. The Atlantic seaboard of Europe has recently experienced record-breaking winter seasons, particularly in Ireland and the UK, where the 2013/14 winter was characterised as the stormiest on record according to measured levels of total precipitation, extreme wind speeds, and particularly the frequency and intensity of cyclone activity. The enhanced cyclone activity during 2013/14 has resulted in unprecedented sequences of extreme water levels and energetic waves and gave rise to widespread coastal erosion and flooding, setting new benchmarks for coastal analysis and offered a glimpse of future storm impact scenarios. A regional analysis of hydrodynamic forcing along the north coast of Ireland over the last two extended winter seasons (October to March) has revealed that, although 2013/14 was indeed characterised by an exceptional frequency and intensity of coastal storms, the 2014/15 extended winter was significantly stormier. Not only was the number of individual storm events higher, but also the duration and intensity was greater, including record values of offshore significant wave height. The geomorphic response along the sandy coastal stretches of the north coast of Ireland, evaluated from morphological change at a diverse group of beach sites, revealed considerable differences in beach erosion and actual shoreline response. Variability in beach changes during these two extreme winter seasons is attributed to a variety of factors. These include localised coastal orientation relative to particular storm tracks, the embayed and highly compartmentalised setting of most of the beaches, as well as site-specific morphodynamic mechanisms such as large rip-current cells forcing the onset and/or reactivation of erosional hotspots. Such heterogeneous

  13. Spectral responsivity estimation and noise effect analysis for digital imaging systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Gao-Wei; Kuo, Hung-Zen; Tu, Chung-Fan

    2004-02-01

    The determination of spectral responsivities plays a significant role in analyzing and predicting the performance of digital imaging systems for remote sensing. For example, given the spectral response functions, we can readily obtain the colorimetric data from a camera corresponding to the remote illuminated objects. In this paper, we develop a filter-based optical system to estimate these functions. The design objective of this system is to effectively select a limited amount of spectral (or broadband) filters to characterize the spectral features of color imaging processes, which are contaminated with noise, so that the spectral response functions can be estimated with satisfactory accuracy. In our approach, a theoretical study is first presented to pave the way for this work, and then we propose a filter selection method based on the technique of orthogonal-triangular (QR) decomposition with column pivoting, called QRCP method. This method involves QR computations and a column permutation process, which determines a permutation matrix to conduct the subset (or filter) selection. Experimental results reveal that the proposed technique is truly consistent with the theoretical study on filter selections. As expected, the optical system with the filters selected from the QRCP method is much less sensitive to noise than those with other spectral filters from different selections. It turns out that our approach is an effective way to implement the optical system for estimating spectral responsivities of digital imaging systems.

  14. Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erickson, Gary E.

    2010-01-01

    Response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration at supersonic speeds in the NASA LaRC Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The Mach 3 staging was dominated by shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. The inference space was partitioned into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The underlying aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle were estimated using piecewise-continuous lower-order polynomial functions. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. Augmenting the central composite designs to full third-order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria was evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting lower-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

  15. Estimation of the auto frequency response function at unexcited points using dummy masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosoya, Naoki; Yaginuma, Shinji; Onodera, Hiroshi; Yoshimura, Takuya

    2015-02-01

    If structures with complex shapes have space limitations, vibration tests using an exciter or impact hammer for the excitation are difficult. Although measuring the auto frequency response function at an unexcited point may not be practical via a vibration test, it can be obtained by assuming that the inertia acting on a dummy mass is an external force on the target structure upon exciting a different excitation point. We propose a method to estimate the auto frequency response functions at unexcited points by attaching a small mass (dummy mass), which is comparable to the accelerometer mass. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing the auto frequency response functions estimated at unexcited points in a beam structure to those obtained from numerical simulations. We also consider random measurement errors by finite element analysis and vibration tests, but not bias errors. Additionally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by applying it to estimate the auto frequency response function of the lower arm in a car suspension.

  16. Estimation of bias errors in measured airplane responses using maximum likelihood method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, Vladiaslav; Morgan, Dan R.

    1987-01-01

    A maximum likelihood method is used for estimation of unknown bias errors in measured airplane responses. The mathematical model of an airplane is represented by six-degrees-of-freedom kinematic equations. In these equations the input variables are replaced by their measured values which are assumed to be without random errors. The resulting algorithm is verified with a simulation and flight test data. The maximum likelihood estimates from in-flight measured data are compared with those obtained by using a nonlinear-fixed-interval-smoother and an extended Kalmar filter.

  17. Added mass matrix estimation of beams partially immersed in water using measured dynamic responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Fushun; Li, Huajun; Qin, Hongde; Liang, Bingchen

    2014-09-01

    An added mass matrix estimation method for beams partially immersed in water is proposed that employs dynamic responses, which are measured when the structure is in water and in air. Discrepancies such as mass and stiffness matrices between the finite element model (FEM) and real structure could be separated from the added mass of water by a series of correction factors, which means that the mass and stiffness of the FEM and the added mass of water could be estimated simultaneously. Compared with traditional methods, the estimated added mass correction factors of our approach will not be limited to be constant when FEM or the environment of the structure changed, meaning that the proposed method could reflect the influence of changes such as water depth, current, and so on. The greatest improvement is that the proposed method could estimate added mass of water without involving any water-related assumptions because all water influences are reflected in measured dynamic responses of the structure in water. A five degrees-of-freedom (dofs) mass-spring system is used to study the performance of the proposed scheme. The numerical results indicate that mass, stiffness, and added mass correction factors could be estimated accurately when noise-free measurements are used. Even when the first two modes are measured under the 5 percent corruption level, the added mass could be estimated properly. A steel cantilever beam with a rectangular section in a water tank at Ocean University of China was also employed to study the added mass influence on modal parameter identification and to investigate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results demonstrated that the first two modal frequencies and mode shapes of the updated model match well with the measured values by combining the estimated added mass in the initial FEM.

  18. Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-04-01

    that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

  19. Recovery of Item Parameters in the Nominal Response Model: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wollack, James A.; Bolt, Daniel M.; Cohen, Allan S.; Lee, Young-Sun

    2002-01-01

    Compared the quality of item parameter estimates for marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the nominal response model using simulation. The quality of item parameter recovery was nearly identical for MML and MCMC, and both methods tended to produce good estimates. (SLD)

  20. Impulse Response Estimation for Spatial Resolution Enhancement in Ultrasonic NDE Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, G A

    2004-06-25

    This report describes a signal processing algorithm and MATLAB software for improving spatial resolution in ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) imaging of materials. Given a measured reflection signal and an associated reference signal, the algorithm produces an optimal least-squares estimate of the impulse response of the material under test. This estimated impulse response, when used in place of the raw reflection signal, enhances the spatial resolution of the ultrasonic measurements by removing distortion caused by the limited-bandwidth transducers and the materials under test. The theory behind the processing algorithms is briefly presented, while the reader is referred to the bibliography for details. The main focus of the report is to describe how to use the MATLAB software. Two processing examples using actual ultrasonic measurements are provided for tutorial purposes.

  1. Inverse combustion force estimation based on response measurements outside the combustion chamber and signal processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseini Fouladi, Mohammad; Mohd. Nor, Mohd. Jailani; Kamal Ariffin, Ahmad; Abdullah, Shahrir

    2009-11-01

    Exposure to vibration has various physiological effects on vehicle passengers. Engine is one of the main sources of vehicle vibration. The major causes of engine vibration are combustion forces transmitted through the pistons and connection rods. Evaluation of sources is the first step to attenuate this vibration. Assessment of these sources is not an easy task because internal parts of machinery are not accessible. Often, instrumentation for such systems is costly, time consuming and some modifications would be necessary. Aim of the first part of this paper was to validate an inverse technique and carry out mobility analysis on a vehicle crankshaft to achieve matrix of Frequency Response Functions (FRFs). Outcomes were implemented to reconstruct the applied force for single and multiple-input systems. In the second part, the validated inverse technique and FRFs were used to estimate piston forces of an operating engine. Bearings of crankshaft were chosen as nearest accessible parts to piston connecting rods. Accelerometers were connected to the bearings for response measurement during an ideal engine operation. These responses together with FRFs, which were estimated in the previous part, were utilised in the inverse technique. Tikhonov regularization was used to solve the ill-conditioned inverse system. Two methods, namely L-curve criterion and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV), were employed to find the regularization parameter for the Tikhonov method. The inverse problem was solved and piston forces applied to crankpins were estimated. Results were validated by pressure measurement inside a cylinder and estimating the corresponding combustion force. This validation showed that inverse technique and measurement outcomes were roughly in agreement. In presence of various noise, L-curve criterion conduces to more robust results compared to the GCV method. But in the absence of high correlation between sources ( f>600 HzHz), the GCV technique leads to more accurate

  2. A Comparison of Estimation Methods for a Multi-unidimensional Graded Response IRT Model

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Tzu-Chun; Sheng, Yanyan

    2016-01-01

    This study compared several parameter estimation methods for multi-unidimensional graded response models using their corresponding statistical software programs and packages. Specifically, we compared two marginal maximum likelihood (MML) approaches (Bock-Aitkin expectation-maximum algorithm, adaptive quadrature approach), four fully Bayesian algorithms (Gibbs sampling, Metropolis-Hastings, Hastings-within-Gibbs, blocked Metropolis), and the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro (MHRM) algorithm via the use of IRTPRO, BMIRT, and MATLAB. Simulation results suggested that, when the intertrait correlation was low, these estimation methods provided similar results. However, if the dimensions were moderately or highly correlated, Hastings-within-Gibbs had an overall better parameter recovery of item discrimination and intertrait correlation parameters. The performances of these estimation methods with different sample sizes and test lengths are also discussed. PMID:27375545

  3. A Comparison of Estimation Methods for a Multi-unidimensional Graded Response IRT Model.

    PubMed

    Kuo, Tzu-Chun; Sheng, Yanyan

    2016-01-01

    This study compared several parameter estimation methods for multi-unidimensional graded response models using their corresponding statistical software programs and packages. Specifically, we compared two marginal maximum likelihood (MML) approaches (Bock-Aitkin expectation-maximum algorithm, adaptive quadrature approach), four fully Bayesian algorithms (Gibbs sampling, Metropolis-Hastings, Hastings-within-Gibbs, blocked Metropolis), and the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro (MHRM) algorithm via the use of IRTPRO, BMIRT, and MATLAB. Simulation results suggested that, when the intertrait correlation was low, these estimation methods provided similar results. However, if the dimensions were moderately or highly correlated, Hastings-within-Gibbs had an overall better parameter recovery of item discrimination and intertrait correlation parameters. The performances of these estimation methods with different sample sizes and test lengths are also discussed. PMID:27375545

  4. Estimation of ex-core detector responses by adjoint Monte Carlo

    SciTech Connect

    Hoogenboom, J. E.

    2006-07-01

    Ex-core detector responses can be efficiently calculated by combining an adjoint Monte Carlo calculation with the converged source distribution of a forward Monte Carlo calculation. As the fission source distribution from a Monte Carlo calculation is given only as a collection of discrete space positions, the coupling requires a point flux estimator for each collision in the adjoint calculation. To avoid the infinite variance problems of the point flux estimator, a next-event finite-variance point flux estimator has been applied, witch is an energy dependent form for heterogeneous media of a finite-variance estimator known from the literature. To test the effects of this combined adjoint-forward calculation a simple geometry of a homogeneous core with a reflector was adopted with a small detector in the reflector. To demonstrate the potential of the method the continuous-energy adjoint Monte Carlo technique with anisotropic scattering was implemented with energy dependent absorption and fission cross sections and constant scattering cross section. A gain in efficiency over a completely forward calculation of the detector response was obtained, which is strongly dependent on the specific system and especially the size and position of the ex-core detector and the energy range considered. Further improvements are possible. The method works without problems for small detectors, even for a point detector and a small or even zero energy range. (authors)

  5. Modifiers of exposure-response estimates for lung cancer among miners exposed to radon progeny.

    PubMed Central

    Hornung, R W; Deddens, J; Roscoe, R

    1995-01-01

    The association between lung cancer and exposure to radon decay products has been well established. Despite agreement on this point, there is still some degree of uncertainty regarding characteristics of the exposure-response relationship. The use of studies of underground miners to estimate lung cancer risks due to residential radon exposure depends upon a better understanding of factors potentially modifying the exposure-response relationship. Given the diversity in study populations regarding smoking status, mining conditions, risk analysis methodology, and referent populations, the risk estimates across studies are quite similar. However, several factors partially contributing to differences in risk estimates are modified by attained age, time since last exposure, exposure rate, and cigarette smoking patterns. There is growing agreement across studies that relative risk decreases with attained age and time since last exposure. Several studies have also found an inverse exposure-rate effect, i.e., low exposure rates for protracted duration of exposure are more hazardous than equivalent cumulative exposures received at higher rates for shorter periods of time. Additionally, the interaction between radon exposure and cigarette smoking appears to be intermediate between additive and multiplicative in a growing number of studies. Quantitative estimates of these modifying factors are given using a new analysis of data from the latest update of the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort. PMID:7614947

  6. MAVEN data-model comparison of the response of heavy pick-up ions during extreme conditions at Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, Shannon; Luhmann, Janet G.; Dong, Chuanfei D.; Brain, David; Leblanc, Francois; Modolo, Ronan; Halekas, Jasper; McFadden, James; Connerney, Jack; Espley, Jared; Mitchell, David; Larson, Davin; Hara, Takuya; Jakosky, Bruce

    2015-11-01

    MAVEN has observed multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events at Mars, showing dramatic enhancements of heavy ion precipitation into the upper atmosphere. Heavy ion precipitation is the primary driver of sputtering, which is believed to be one of the main channels for atmospheric erosion during earlier epochs of our solar system when the solar activity and EUV intensities were much higher than the present day. Using MAVEN observations of extreme solar wind events, we simulate atmospheric precipitation using fluid and kinetic models and compare with MAVEN observations. The fluid model reproduces the observed features in the solar wind density, velocity and magnetic field seen along the MAVEN orbit during the March 8th ICME event, and the subsequent precipitation shows strong agreement with other published predictions of sputtering in extreme conditions.

  7. Bivariate extreme value distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshamy, M.

    1992-01-01

    In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

  8. A general method for parameter estimation in light-response models

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lei; Li, Zhong-Bin; Hui, Cang; Cheng, Xiaofei; Li, Bai-Lian; Shi, Pei-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Selecting appropriate initial values is critical for parameter estimation in nonlinear photosynthetic light response models. Failed convergence often occurs due to wrongly selected initial values when using currently available methods, especially the kind of local optimization. There are no reliable methods that can resolve the conundrum of selecting appropriate initial values. After comparing the performance of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm and other three algorithms for global optimization, we develop a general method for parameter estimation in four photosynthetic light response models, based on the use of Differential Evolution (DE). The new method was shown to successfully provide good fits (R2 > 0.98) and robust parameter estimates for 42 datasets collected for 21 plant species under the same initial values. It suggests that the DE algorithm can efficiently resolve the issue of hyper initial-value sensitivity when using local optimization methods. Therefore, the DE method can be applied to fit the light-response curves of various species without considering the initial values. PMID:27291688

  9. Efficient Algorithms for Estimating the Absorption Spectrum within Linear Response TDDFT

    SciTech Connect

    Brabec, Jiri; Lin, Lin; Shao, Meiyue; Govind, Niranjan; Yang, Chao; Saad, Yousef; Ng, Esmond

    2015-10-06

    We present two iterative algorithms for approximating the absorption spectrum of molecules within linear response of time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) framework. These methods do not attempt to compute eigenvalues or eigenvectors of the linear response matrix. They are designed to approximate the absorption spectrum as a function directly. They take advantage of the special structure of the linear response matrix. Neither method requires the linear response matrix to be constructed explicitly. They only require a procedure that performs the multiplication of the linear response matrix with a vector. These methods can also be easily modified to efficiently estimate the density of states (DOS) of the linear response matrix without computing the eigenvalues of this matrix. We show by computational experiments that the methods proposed in this paper can be much more efficient than methods that are based on the exact diagonalization of the linear response matrix. We show that they can also be more efficient than real-time TDDFT simulations. We compare the pros and cons of these methods in terms of their accuracy as well as their computational and storage cost.

  10. Bacterial responses to fluctuations and extremes in temperature and brine salinity at the surface of Arctic winter sea ice.

    PubMed

    Ewert, Marcela; Deming, Jody W

    2014-08-01

    Wintertime measurements near Barrow, Alaska, showed that bacteria near the surface of first-year sea ice and in overlying saline snow experience more extreme temperatures and salinities, and wider fluctuations in both parameters, than bacteria deeper in the ice. To examine impacts of such conditions on bacterial survival, two Arctic isolates with different environmental tolerances were subjected to winter-freezing conditions, with and without the presence of organic solutes involved in osmoprotection: proline, choline, or glycine betaine. Obligate psychrophile Colwellia psychrerythraea strain 34H suffered cell losses under all treatments, with maximal loss after 15-day exposure to temperatures fluctuating between -7 and -25 °C. Osmoprotectants significantly reduced the losses, implying that salinity rather than temperature extremes presents the greater stress for this organism. In contrast, psychrotolerant Psychrobacter sp. strain 7E underwent miniaturization and fragmentation under both fluctuating and stable-freezing conditions, with cell numbers increasing in most cases, implying a different survival strategy that may include enhanced dispersal. Thus, the composition and abundance of the bacterial community that survives in winter sea ice may depend on the extent to which overlying snow buffers against extreme temperature and salinity conditions and on the availability of solutes that mitigate osmotic shock, especially during melting. PMID:24903191

  11. Centralized web-based loss estimation tool: INLET for disaster response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huyck, C. K.; Chung, H.-C.; Cho, S.; Mio, M. Z.; Ghosh, S.; Eguchi, R. T.; Mehrotra, S.

    2006-03-01

    In the years following the 1994 Northridge earthquake, many researchers in the earthquake community focused on the development of GIS-based loss estimation tools such as HAZUS. These highly customizable programs have many users, and different results after an event can be problematic. Online IMS (Internet Map Servers) offer a centralized system where data, model updates and results cascade to all users. INLET (Internet-based Loss Estimation Tool) is the first online real-time loss estimation system available to the emergency management and response community within Southern California. In the event of a significant earthquake, Perl scripts written to respond to USGS ShakeCast notifications will call INLET routines that use USGS ShakeMaps to estimate losses within minutes after an event. INLET incorporates extensive publicly available GIS databases and uses damage functions simplified from FEMA's HAZUS (R) software. INLET currently estimates building damage, transportation impacts, and casualties. The online model simulates the effects of earthquakes, in the context of the larger RESCUE project, in order to test the integration of IT in evacuation routing. The simulation tool provides a "testbed" environment for researchers to model the effect that disaster awareness and route familiarity can have on traffic congestion and evacuation time.

  12. Classes of Split-Plot Response Surface Designs for Equivalent Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Peter A.; Kowalski, Scott M.; Vining, G. Geoffrey

    2006-01-01

    When planning an experimental investigation, we are frequently faced with factors that are difficult or time consuming to manipulate, thereby making complete randomization impractical. A split-plot structure differentiates between the experimental units associated with these hard-to-change factors and others that are relatively easy-to-change and provides an efficient strategy that integrates the restrictions imposed by the experimental apparatus. Several industrial and scientific examples are presented to illustrate design considerations encountered in the restricted randomization context. In this paper, we propose classes of split-plot response designs that provide an intuitive and natural extension from the completely randomized context. For these designs, the ordinary least squares estimates of the model are equivalent to the generalized least squares estimates. This property provides best linear unbiased estimators and simplifies model estimation. The design conditions that allow for equivalent estimation are presented enabling design construction strategies to transform completely randomized Box-Behnken, equiradial, and small composite designs into a split-plot structure.

  13. Estimation of a Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory Model by the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monroe, Scott; Cai, Li

    2014-01-01

    In Ramsay curve item response theory (RC-IRT) modeling, the shape of the latent trait distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters. In its original implementation, RC-IRT is estimated via Bock and Aitkin's EM algorithm, which yields maximum marginal likelihood estimates. This method, however, does not produce the…

  14. Sensitivity of the resting-state haemodynamic response function estimation to autonomic nervous system fluctuations.

    PubMed

    Wu, Guo-Rong; Marinazzo, Daniele

    2016-05-13

    The haemodynamic response function (HRF) is a key component of the blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal, providing the mapping between neural activity and the signal measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Most of the time the HRF is associated with task-based fMRI protocols, in which its onset is explicitly included in the design matrix. On the other hand, the HRF also mediates the relationship between spontaneous neural activity and the BOLD signal in resting-state protocols, in which no explicit stimulus is taken into account. It has been shown that resting-state brain dynamics can be characterized by looking at sparse BOLD 'events', which can be retrieved by point process analysis. These events can be then used to retrieve the HRF at rest. Crucially, cardiac activity can also induce changes in the BOLD signal, thus affecting both the number of these events and the estimation of the haemodynamic response. In this study, we compare the resting-state haemodynamic response retrieved by means of a point process analysis, taking the cardiac fluctuations into account. We find that the resting-state HRF estimation is significantly modulated in the brainstem and surrounding cortical areas. From the analysis of two high-quality datasets with different temporal and spatial resolution, and through the investigation of intersubject correlation, we suggest that spontaneous point process response durations are associated with the mean interbeat interval and low-frequency power of heart rate variability in the brainstem. PMID:27044997

  15. Model-averaged benchmark concentration estimates for continuous response data arising from epidemiological studies

    SciTech Connect

    Noble, R.B.; Bailer, A.J.; Park, R.

    2009-04-15

    Worker populations often provide data on adverse responses associated with exposure to potential hazards. The relationship between hazard exposure levels and adverse response can be modeled and then inverted to estimate the exposure associated with some specified response level. One concern is that this endpoint may be sensitive to the concentration metric and other variables included in the model. Further, it may be that the models yielding different risk endpoints are all providing relatively similar fits. We focus on evaluating the impact of exposure on a continuous response by constructing a model-averaged benchmark concentration from a weighted average of model-specific benchmark concentrations. A method for combining the estimates based on different models is applied to lung function in a cohort of miners exposed to coal dust. In this analysis, we see that a small number of the thousands of models considered survive a filtering criterion for use in averaging. Even after filtering, the models considered yield benchmark concentrations that differ by a factor of 2 to 9 depending on the concentration metric and covariates. The model-average BMC captures this uncertainty, and provides a useful strategy for addressing model uncertainty.

  16. Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erickson, Gary E.; Deloach, Richard

    2008-01-01

    A collection of statistical and mathematical techniques referred to as response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration using data obtained on small-scale models at supersonic speeds in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The simulated Mach 3 staging was dominated by multiple shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. This motivated a partitioning of the overall inference space into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using cuboidal and spherical central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The primary goal was to approximate the underlying overall aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle using relatively simple, lower-order polynomial functions that were piecewise-continuous across the full independent variable ranges of interest. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. The potential benefits of augmenting the central composite designs to full third order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria were also evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting low-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

  17. Excitation, response, and fatigue life estimation methods for the structural design of externally blown flaps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ungar, E. E.; Chandiramani, K. L.; Barger, J. E.

    1972-01-01

    Means for predicting the fluctuating pressures acting on externally blown flap surfaces are developed on the basis of generalizations derived from non-dimensionalized empirical data. Approaches for estimation of the fatigue lives of skin-stringer and honeycomb-core sandwich flap structures are derived from vibration response analyses and panel fatigue data. Approximate expressions for fluctuating pressures, structural response, and fatigue life are combined to reveal the important parametric dependences. The two-dimensional equations of motion of multi-element flap systems are derived in general form, so that they can be specialized readily for any particular system. An introduction is presented of an approach to characterizing the excitation pressures and structural responses which makes use of space-time spectral concepts and promises to provide useful insights, as well as experimental and analytical savings.

  18. Updated estimates of the climate response to emissions and their policy implications (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, M. R.; Otto, A.; Stocker, T. F.; Frame, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    We review the implications of observations of the global energy budget over recent decades, particularly the 'warming hiatus' period over the 2000s, for key climate system properties including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). We show how estimates of the upper bound of ECS remain, as ever, sensitive to prior assumptions and also how ECS, even if it were better constrained, would provide much less information about the social cost of carbon than TCR or TCRE. Hence the excitement over recent, apparently conflicting, estimates of ECS, is almost entirely misplaced. Of greater potential policy significance is the fact that recent observations imply a modest (of order 25%) downward revision in the upper bound and most likely values of TCR and TCRE, as compared to some, but not all, of the estimates published in the mid-2000s. This is partly due to the recent reduced rate of warming, and partly due to revisions in estimates of total anthropogenic forcing to date. Both of these developments may turn out to be short-lived, so the policy implications of this modest revision in TCR/TCRE should not be over-sold: nevertheless, it is interesting to explore what they are. The implications for climate change adaptation of a 25% downward revision in TCR and TCRE are minimal, being overshadowed by uncertainty due to internal variability and non-CO2 climate forcings over typical timescales for adaptation planning. We introduce a simple framework for assessing the implications for mitigation in terms of timing of peak emissions average rates of emission reduction required to avoid specific levels of peak warming. We show that, as long as emissions continue to increase approximately exponentially, the implications for mitigation of any revisions in the climate response are surprisingly small.

  19. Trying to Learn Lessons for Response to Extreme Events: Paradigm Shifts Affecting Civil Defense in the Trinational Region of Southwestern Amazonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, G. L. P.

    2015-12-01

    The last ten years have seen several extreme climate events in southwestern Amazonia with historic impacts. The City of Rio Branco, Capital of Acre, Brazil´s westernmost State, suffered its seventh consecutive annual flooding and its worst in March 2015. The city of Tarauacá, also in Acre, registered 12 flooding events between November 2014 and April 2015. The most recent flood of the trinational Acre River in 2015 set historic records for flood stage and number of displaced persons in Cobija, the Capital of Pando, Bolivia. From February to April 2014, floods of the Madeira River disrupted the one highway between Acre and southern Brazil. Puerto Maldonado, the capital in Madre de Dios Region of Peru had its worst flood in 50 years during 2014. In 2005 and 2010, prolonged droughts combined with ignition sources resulted in tens to hundreds of thousands of hectares of fire-damaged rainforests in the Madre de Dios, Acre and Pando (MAP) Region. The Civil Defenses in these three contiguous political units faced several abrupt paradigm shifts that affected their responses: 1) The drought of 2005 showed dramatically that regional rainforests do burn; 2) The recent flooding history, particularly in 2012 and 2015, demolished the cultural icon of a nine-year recurrence interval; 3) What happens outside your territory can be devastating. The Madeira River flood impeded an estimated 200 million dollars from circulating in Acre; 4) The past can be a terrible guide. For Cobija and Rio Branco, the 2015 flood was on the order of a meter higher than any other. Many home dwellers did not evacuate in time because they used past floods as a guide; 5) A collapse in communication - cell phones, land lines, and Internet - can get worse. In 2012, such a collapse occurred in two border towns for 5 days, yet in 2015 it lasted more than 11 days. Research is needed to address how institutions linked to Civil Defense can shift paradigms in time to be more effective.

  20. Estimation of return periods for extreme sea levels: a simplified empirical correction of the joint probabilities method with examples from the French Atlantic coast and three ports in the southwest of the UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirazzoli, Paolo Antonio; Tomasin, Alberto

    2007-04-01

    The joint probability method (JPM) to estimate the probability of extreme sea levels (Pugh and Vassie, Extreme sea-levels from tide and surge probability. Proc. 16th Coastal Engineering Conference, 1978, Hamburg, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, pp 911 930, 1979) has been applied to the hourly records of 13 tide-gauge stations of the tidally dominated Atlantic coast of France (including Brest, since 1860) and to three stations in the southwest of the UK (including Newlyn, since 1916). The cumulative total length of the available records (more than 426 years) is variable from 1 to 130 years when individual stations are considered. It appears that heights estimated with the JPM are almost systematically greater than the extreme heights recorded. Statistical analysis shows that this could be due: (1) to surge tide interaction (that may tend to damp surge values that occur at the time of the highest tide levels), and (2) to the fact that major surges often occur in seasonal periods that may not correspond to those of extreme astronomical tides. We have determined at each station empirical ad hoc correction coefficients that take into account the above two factors separately, or together, and estimated return periods for extreme water levels also at stations where only short records are available. For seven long records, for which estimations with other computing methods (e.g. generalized extreme value [GEV] distribution and Gumbel) can be attempted, average estimations of extreme values appear slightly overestimated in relation to the actual maximum records by the uncorrected JPM (+16.7 ± 7.2 cm), and by the Gumbel method alone (+10.3 ± 6.3 cm), but appear closer to the reality with the GEV distribution (-2.0 ± 5.3 cm) and with the best-fitting correction to the JPM (+2.9 ± 4.4 cm). Because the GEV analysis can hardly be extended to short records, it is proposed to apply at each station, especially for short records, the JPM and the site-dependent ad

  1. Joint maximum likelihood estimation of activation and Hemodynamic Response Function for fMRI.

    PubMed

    Bazargani, Negar; Nosratinia, Aria

    2014-07-01

    Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) maps the brain activity by measuring blood oxygenation level, which is related to brain activity via a temporal impulse response function known as the Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF). The HRF varies from subject to subject and within areas of the brain, therefore a knowledge of HRF is necessary for accurately computing voxel activations. Conversely a knowledge of active voxels is highly beneficial for estimating the HRF. This work presents a joint maximum likelihood estimation of HRF and activation based on low-rank matrix approximations operating on regions of interest (ROI). Since each ROI has limited data, a smoothing constraint on the HRF is employed via Tikhonov regularization. The method is analyzed under both white noise and colored noise. Experiments with synthetic data show that accurate estimation of the HRF is possible with this method without prior assumptions on the exact shape of the HRF. Further experiments involving real fMRI experiments with auditory stimuli are used to validate the proposed method. PMID:24835179

  2. The Wikipedia Gender Gap Revisited: Characterizing Survey Response Bias with Propensity Score Estimation.

    PubMed

    Hill, Benjamin Mako; Shaw, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Opt-in surveys are the most widespread method used to study participation in online communities, but produce biased results in the absence of adjustments for non-response. A 2008 survey conducted by the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht is the source of a frequently cited statistic that less than 13% of Wikipedia contributors are female. However, the same study suggested that only 39.9% of Wikipedia readers in the US were female - a finding contradicted by a representative survey of American adults by the Pew Research Center conducted less than two months later. Combining these two datasets through an application and extension of a propensity score estimation technique used to model survey non-response bias, we construct revised estimates, contingent on explicit assumptions, for several of the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht claims about Wikipedia editors. We estimate that the proportion of female US adult editors was 27.5% higher than the original study reported (22.7%, versus 17.8%), and that the total proportion of female editors was 26.8% higher (16.1%, versus 12.7%). PMID:23840366

  3. CYTOGENETIC AND MOLECULAR RESPONSES OF AMMONIUM SULPHATE APPLICATION FOR TOLERANCE TO EXTREME TEMPERATURES IN VICIA FABA L.

    PubMed

    Öney, S; Tabur, S; Tuna, M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of ammonium sulphate [(NH4)2SO4] on mitosis, cell cycle and chromosomes in Vicia faba L. seeds exposed to extreme temperatures were investigated using flowcytometric and cytogenetic analysis. Seeds germinated at high and low temperatures showed a signiicant decrease in mitotic index as compared to those of optimum temperature conditions. Application of 50 and 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 were successful in alleviating the negative effects of low and high temperature on mitotic activity, respectively. 50 µM (NH4)2SO4 showed the most positive effect on cell cycle at the extreme temperatures. This concentration increased the cell division removing or decreasing the negative effects of temperature stress. Namely, the highest G2/M and S phase percentages under stress conditions were obtained with application of 50 µM (NH4)2SO4. Chromosomal aberrations were not observed in cells of seeds germinated in distilled water and also at any temperatures. However, the frequency of chromosomal aberrations increased significantly by increasing (NH4)2SO4 concentration. The highest aberration frequency in all temperature degree tested was found at 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 concentration. PMID:26638498

  4. Uncertainties of reverberation time estimation via adaptively identified room impulse responses.

    PubMed

    Wu, Lifu; Qiu, Xiaojun; Burnett, Ian; Guo, Yecai

    2016-03-01

    This paper investigates the reverberation time estimation methods which employ backward integration of adaptively identified room impulse responses (RIRs). Two kinds of conditions are considered; the first is the "ideal condition" where the anechoic and reverberant signals are both known a priori so that the RIRs can be identified using system identification methods. The second is that only the reverberant speech signal is available, and blind identification of the RIRs via dereverberation is employed for reverberation time estimation. Results show that under the "ideal condition," the average relative errors in 7 octave bands are less than 2% for white noise and 15% for speech, respectively, when both the anechoic and reverberant signals are available. In contrast, under the second condition, the average relative errors of the blindly identified RIR-based reverberation time estimation are around 20%-30% except the 63 Hz octave band. The fluctuation of reverberation times estimated under the second condition is more severe than that under the ideal condition and the relative error for low frequency octave bands is larger than that for high octave bands under both conditions. PMID:27036246

  5. Practical energy response estimation of photon counting detectors for spectral X-ray imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Dong-Goo; Lee, Jongha; Sung, Younghun; Lee, SeongDeok

    2010-04-01

    Spectral X-ray imaging is a promising technique to drastically improve the diagnostic quality of radiography and computed tomography (CT), since it enables material decomposition and/or identification based on the energy dependency of material-specific X-ray attenuation. Unlike the charge-integration based X-ray detectors, photon counting X-ray detectors (PCXDs) can discriminate the energies of incident X-ray photons and thereby multi-energy images can be obtained in single exposure. However, the measured data are not accurate since the spectra of incident X-rays are distorted according to the energy response function (ERF) of a PCXD. Thus ERF should be properly estimated in advance for accurate spectral imaging. This paper presents a simple method for ERF estimation based on a polychromatic X-ray source that is widely used for medical imaging. The method consists of three steps: source spectra measurement, detector spectra reconstruction, and ERF inverse estimation. Real spectra of an X-ray tube are first measured at all kVs by using an X-ray spectrometer. The corresponding detector spectra are obtained by threshold scans. The ERF is then estimated by solving the inverse problem. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the concept of the proposed method.

  6. Estimating transient climate response using consistent temperature reconstruction methods in models and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, M.; Cowtan, K.; Hawkins, E.; Stolpe, M.

    2015-12-01

    Observational temperature records such as HadCRUT4 typically have incomplete geographical coverage and blend air temperature over land with sea surface temperatures over ocean, in contrast to model output which is commonly reported as global air temperature. This complicates estimation of properties such as the transient climate response (TCR). Observation-based estimates of TCR have been made using energy-budget constraints applied to time series of historical radiative forcing and surface temperature changes, while model TCR is formally derived from simulations where CO2 increases at 1% per year. We perform a like-with-like comparison using three published energy-budget methods to derive modelled TCR from historical CMIP5 temperature series sampled in a manner consistent with HadCRUT4. Observation-based TCR estimates agree to within 0.12 K of the multi-model mean in each case and for 2 of the 3 energy-budget methods the observation-based TCR is higher than the multi-model mean. For one energy-budget method, using the HadCRUT4 blending method leads to a TCR underestimate of 0.3±0.1 K, relative to that estimated using global near-surface air temperatures.

  7. Multilevel Selection 2: Estimating the Genetic Parameters Determining Inheritance and Response to Selection

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, Piter; Muir, William M.; Ellen, Esther D.; Wolf, Jason B.; Van Arendonk, Johan A. M.

    2007-01-01

    Interactions among individuals are universal, both in animals and in plants and in natural as well as domestic populations. Understanding the consequences of these interactions for the evolution of populations by either natural or artificial selection requires knowledge of the heritable components underlying them. Here we present statistical methodology to estimate the genetic parameters determining response to multilevel selection of traits affected by interactions among individuals in general populations. We apply these methods to obtain estimates of genetic parameters for survival days in a population of layer chickens with high mortality due to pecking behavior. We find that heritable variation is threefold greater than that obtained from classical analyses, meaning that two-thirds of the full heritable variation is hidden to classical analysis due to social interactions. As a consequence, predicted responses to multilevel selection applied to this population are threefold greater than classical predictions. This work, combined with the quantitative genetic theory for response to multilevel selection presented in an accompanying article in this issue, enables the design of selection programs to effectively reduce competitive interactions in livestock and plants and the prediction of the effects of social interactions on evolution in natural populations undergoing multilevel selection. PMID:17110493

  8. A no a priori knowledge estimation of the impulse response for satellite image noise reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benbouzid, A. B.; Taleb, N.

    2015-04-01

    Due to launching vibrations and space harsh environment, high resolution remote sensing satellite imaging systems require permanent assessment and control of image quality, which may vary between ground pre-launch measurements, after launch and over satellite lifetime. In order to mitigate noise, remove artifacts and enhance image interpretability, the Point Spread Function (PSF) of the imaging system is estimated. Image deconvolution can be performed across the characterization of the actual Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) of the imaging system. In this work we focus on adapting and applying a no reference method to characterize in orbit high resolution satellite images in terms of geometrical performance. Moreover, we use natural details contained in images as edges transitions to estimate the impulse response via the assessment of the MTF image. The obtained results are encouraging and promising.

  9. The effect of the transducers on paediatric thresholds estimated with auditory steady-state responses.

    PubMed

    Bakhos, D; Vitaux, H; Villeneuve, A; Kim, S; Lescanne, E; Pigeon, V; Aoustin, J M; Bordure, P; Galvin, J

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the usefulness of auditory steady-state responses (ASSRs) for estimating hearing thresholds in young children, compared with behavioural thresholds. The second objective was to investigate ASSR thresholds obtained with insert earphones versus supra-aural headphones to determine which transducer produces ASSR thresholds most similar to behavioural thresholds measured with supra-aural headphones. This retrospective study included 29 participants (58 ears): 12 children (24 ears) in the insert group and 17 children (34 ears) in the supra-aural group. No general anaesthesia was used. For both groups, there was a strong correlation between behavioural and ASSR thresholds, with a stronger correlation for the insert group. When behavioural thresholds are difficult to obtain, ASSR may be a useful objective measure that can be combined with other audiometric procedures to estimate hearing thresholds and to determine appropriate auditory rehabilitation approaches. PMID:26329899

  10. Climate Networks and Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, J.

    2014-12-01

    We analyse some climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. The global scale view on climate networks offers promising new perspectives for detecting dynamical structures based on nonlinear physical processes in the climate system. Moreover, we evaluate different regional climate models from this aspect. This concept is also applied to Monsoon data in order to characterize the regional occurrence of extreme rain events and its impact on predictability. Changing climatic conditions have led to a significant increase in magnitude and frequency of spatially extensive extreme rainfall events in the eastern Central Andes of South America. These events impose substantial natural hazards for population, economy, and ecology by floods and landslides. For example, heavy floods in Bolivia in early 2007 affected more than 133.000 households and produced estimated costs of 443 Mio. USD. Here, we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. We apply our method to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and are able to predict a large amount of extreme rainfall events. Our study reveals a linkage between polar and subtropical regimes as responsible mechanism: Extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes is caused by the interplay of northward migrating frontal systems and a low-level wind channel from the western Amazon to the subtropics, providing additional moisture. Frontal systems from the Antarctic thus play a key role for sub-seasonal variability of the South American Monsoon System.

  11. Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

    SciTech Connect

    Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

    2009-01-01

    A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

  12. Transfer-function-parameter estimation from frequency response data: A FORTRAN program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, R. C.

    1975-01-01

    A FORTRAN computer program designed to fit a linear transfer function model to given frequency response magnitude and phase data is presented. A conjugate gradient search is used that minimizes the integral of the absolute value of the error squared between the model and the data. The search is constrained to insure model stability. A scaling of the model parameters by their own magnitude aids search convergence. Efficient computer algorithms result in a small and fast program suitable for a minicomputer. A sample problem with different model structures and parameter estimates is reported.

  13. Experimental determination of frequency response function estimates for flexible joint industrial manipulators with serial kinematics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saupe, Florian; Knoblach, Andreas

    2015-02-01

    Two different approaches for the determination of frequency response functions (FRFs) are used for the non-parametric closed loop identification of a flexible joint industrial manipulator with serial kinematics. The two applied experiment designs are based on low power multisine and high power chirp excitations. The main challenge is to eliminate disturbances of the FRF estimates caused by the numerous nonlinearities of the robot. For the experiment design based on chirp excitations, a simple iterative procedure is proposed which allows exploiting the good crest factor of chirp signals in a closed loop setup. An interesting synergy of the two approaches, beyond validation purposes, is pointed out.

  14. The Impact of Outliers on Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha Estimate of Reliability: Ordinal/Rating Scale Item Responses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yan; Wu, Amery D.; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent Monte Carlo simulation study, Liu and Zumbo showed that outliers can severely inflate the estimates of Cronbach's coefficient alpha for continuous item response data--visual analogue response format. Little, however, is known about the effect of outliers for ordinal item response data--also commonly referred to as Likert, Likert-type,…

  15. Extreme Mean and Its Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.

    1979-01-01

    Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

  16. Improving extreme value statistics.

    PubMed

    Shekhawat, Ashivni

    2014-11-01

    The rate of convergence in extreme value statistics is nonuniversal and can be arbitrarily slow. Further, the relative error can be unbounded in the tail of the approximation, leading to difficulty in extrapolating the extreme value fit beyond the available data. We introduce the T method, and show that by using simple nonlinear transformations the extreme value approximation can be rendered rapidly convergent in the bulk, and asymptotic in the tail, thus fixing both issues. The transformations are often parametrized by just one parameter, which can be estimated numerically. The classical extreme value method is shown to be a special case of the proposed method. We demonstrate that vastly improved results can be obtained with almost no extra cost. PMID:25493780

  17. Seismic Wave Amplification in Las Vegas: Site Response and Empirical Estimates of Ground Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodgers, A.; McCallen, D.; Tkalcic, H.; Wagoner, J.; Louie, J.; Anderson, J.; Luke, B.; Snelson, C.; Taylor, W.

    2004-12-01

    This presentation will summarize a multidisciplinary effort to understand seismic wave amplification in Las Vegas Valley. The project involves weak motion recording and analysis, geotechnical and seismic refraction field studies, geologic and lithologic interpretation and model building. We will provide a brief overview of the project, then focus on specifics of seismic wave amplification including observations and interpretations. We analyzed recordings of nuclear explosions from the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and regional earthquakes to estimate site response in Las Vegas. An empirical transfer function method was used to transform ground motion time-series at one (reference) station to other stations, using frequency dependent site response curves in the band 0.2-5.0 Hz. The method transforms the time-series to the frequency domain by Fast Fourier transform, multiplies the amplitude spectrum by the site response curve and inverse FFT's back to the time domain. The approach is validated by the ability to predict horizontal component S-wave ground motion measures, such as peak and rms ground velocities and accelerations. We then can provide empirical estimates of ground motion for a wider distribution of sites in Las Vegas. Frequency dependent amplifications (site response) and peak ground motions are strongly correlated with measures of shallow shear-wave (geotechnical) velocities. Details of the geotechnical measurements and models will be presented in a companion presentation. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.

  18. Tropospheric Response to Estimated Spectrally Discriminated Solar Forcing Over the Past 500 Years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM) is used to investigate the effect of estimated solar irradiance changes on climate for the past 500 years. This model is employed to allow the impact of UV variations on the stratosphere to affect the troposphere via wave-mean flow interactions. Multiple experiments are done with only a total solar irradiance change (peaking at 0.2 percent from the Maunder Minimum to today); with estimated spectrally-varying irradiance changes (i.e., peak changes of 0.7 percent in the UV, 0.2 percent in the visible and near IR; and 0.07 percent in the IR greater than 1 micron); and the spectrally-varying changes in conjunction with model calculated ozone responses in the stratosphere. Results of the varying temperature patterns and radiation response will be discussed. Of interest is whether the different methods of forcing the solar-induced climate change produce different spatial surface temperature signatures, particularly ones that can be differentiated from greenhouse gas warming. In preliminary tests, spectrally-varying solar forcing with induced ozone changes for solar maximum minus solar minimum conditions results in a temperature signal that is primarily at high latitudes.The high latitude response arises due to solar/ozone-induced alterations in the stratospheric wind field that affect planetary wave propagation from the troposphere, and alter tropospheric advection patterns. In contrast, forcing by total solar irradiance changes produces significant response at low and subtropical latitudes as well, driven by water vapor and cloud feedbacks to the radiative perturbation.

  19. Active skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response in the hand following nerve injury and repair in human upper extremities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Aidong; Liu, Dan; Gu, Chen; Gu, Xiaosong; Gu, Jianhui; Hu, Wen

    2016-01-01

    Cutaneous vasoconstriction/vasodilatation occurs in response to whole body and local cooling/heating, and the vasomotor activities play a pivotal role in thermal control of the human body. The mechanisms underlying regulation of skin blood flow involve both neurogenic and humeral/local chemical influence, contributing to the initial response to thermal stimuli and the prolonged phase of response, respectively. Previous studies have suggested the impairment of cutaneous thermal regulation after nerve injury. However, the evidence regarding how the skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response evolve after nerve injury and repair remains limited. Here we observed, by utilizing laser-Doppler perfusion imaging, baseline skin perfusion and perfusion change in response to thermal stimuli after median and ulnar nerve injury, and the results showed that baseline perfusion in autonomous skin area profoundly decreased and active rewarming after clod stress dramatically diminished before sensory recovery of the skin became detectable. In addition, baseline cutaneous perfusion was recovered as the skin regained touch sensation, and exhibited positive correlation to touch sensibility of the skin. These data indicate that both active perfusion and thermoregulatory response of the skin are markedly compromised during skin denervation and can be recovered by re-innervation. This suggests the importance of timely repair of injured nerve, especially in the practice of replantation. PMID:26529641

  20. Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation Using Joined-Wing SensorCraft Aeroelastic Wind-Tunnel Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A; Heeg, Jennifer; Morelli, Eugene A

    2012-01-01

    A new method is presented for estimating frequency responses and their uncertainties from wind-tunnel data in real time. The method uses orthogonal phase-optimized multi- sine excitation inputs and a recursive Fourier transform with a least-squares estimator. The method was first demonstrated with an F-16 nonlinear flight simulation and results showed that accurate short period frequency responses were obtained within 10 seconds. The method was then applied to wind-tunnel data from a previous aeroelastic test of the Joined- Wing SensorCraft. Frequency responses describing bending strains from simultaneous control surface excitations were estimated in a time-efficient manner.

  1. TREFEX: Trend Estimation and Change Detection in the Response of MOX Gas Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Pashami, Sepideh; Lilienthal, Achim J.; Schaffernicht, Erik; Trincavelli, Marco

    2013-01-01

    Many applications of metal oxide gas sensors can benefit from reliable algorithms to detect significant changes in the sensor response. Significant changes indicate a change in the emission modality of a distant gas source and occur due to a sudden change of concentration or exposure to a different compound. As a consequence of turbulent gas transport and the relatively slow response and recovery times of metal oxide sensors, their response in open sampling configuration exhibits strong fluctuations that interfere with the changes of interest. In this paper we introduce TREFEX, a novel change point detection algorithm, especially designed for metal oxide gas sensors in an open sampling system. TREFEX models the response of MOX sensors as a piecewise exponential signal and considers the junctions between consecutive exponentials as change points. We formulate non-linear trend filtering and change point detection as a parameter-free convex optimization problem for single sensors and sensor arrays. We evaluate the performance of the TREFEX algorithm experimentally for different metal oxide sensors and several gas emission profiles. A comparison with the previously proposed GLR method shows a clearly superior performance of the TREFEX algorithm both in detection performance and in estimating the change time. PMID:23736853

  2. Study on the Strategies for the Soil and Water Resource Con-servation of Slopeland in Taiwan in Response to the Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng

    2014-05-01

    Global climate change results in extreme weather, especially ex-treme precipitation in Taiwan. Though the total amount of precipi-tation remains unchanged, the frequency of rainfall return period increases which affects slopeland and causes sediment disaster. In Taiwan, slopeland occupies about 73% of national territory. Under harsh environmental stress, soil and water conservation of slope-land becomes more important. In response to the trends of global-ization impacts of climate change, long term strategic planning be-comes more necessary. This study reviewed international practices and decision making process about soil and water conservation of slopeland; and conducted the compilation and analysis of water and soil conservation related research projects in Taiwan within the past five years. It is necessary for Taiwan to design timely adaptive strategies about conducting the all-inclusive conservation of na-tional territory, management and business operation of watershed based on the existing regulation with the effects of extreme weather induced by climate change and the changes of social-economic en-vironments. In order to realize the policy vision of "Under the premise of multiple uses, operating the sustainable business and management of the water and soil resources in the watershed through territorial planning in response to the climate and so-cial-economic environment change". This study concluded the future tasks for soil and water con-servation: 1.Design and timely amend strategies for soil and wand water conservation in response to extreme weather. 2. Strengthen the planning and operating of the land management and integrated conservation of the water and soil resources of key watershed. 3. Manage and operate the prevention of debris flow disaster and large-scale landslide. 4. Formulate polices, related regulations and assessment indicators of soil and water conservation. 5. Maintain the biodiversity of the slopeland and reduce the ecological footprint

  3. Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, L. W.

    2001-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

  4. Techniques for estimating the unknown functions of incomplete experimental spectral and correlation response matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, Jose; Borsoi, Laurent; Delaune, Xavier; Piteau, Philippe

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we propose analytical and numerical straightforward approximate methods to estimate the unknown terms of incomplete spectral or correlation matrices, when the cross-spectra or cross-correlations available from multiple measurements do not cover all pairs of transducer locations. The proposed techniques may be applied whenever the available data includes the auto-spectra at all measurement locations, as well as selected cross-spectra which implicates all measurement locations. The suggested methods can also be used for checking the consistency between the spectral or correlation functions pertaining to measurement matrices, in cases of suspicious data. After presenting the proposed spectral estimation formulations, we discuss their merits and limitations. Then we illustrate their use on a realistic simulation of a multi-supported tube subjected to turbulence excitation from cross-flow. Finally, we show the effectiveness of the proposed techniques by extracting the modal responses of the simulated flow-excited tube, using the SOBI (Second Order Blind Identification) method, from an incomplete response matrix 1

  5. Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters From Simulated Detector Responses With Detector Design Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, L. W.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha (sub 1), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy E(sub k) to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

  6. Estimating residual stress, curvature and boundary compliance of doubly clamped MEMS from their vibration response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tung, Ryan C.; Garg, Anurag; Kovacs, Andrew; Peroulis, Dimitrios; Raman, Arvind

    2013-04-01

    Structural parameters of doubly clamped microfabricated beams such as initial curvature, boundary compliance, thickness and mean residual stress are often critical to the performance of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and need to be estimated as a part of quality control of the microfabrication process. However, these parameters couple and influence many metrics of device response and thus are very difficult to disentangle and estimate using conventional methods such as the M-test, static mechanical tests, pull-in measurements or dynamic mechanical tests. Here we present a simple, non-destructive experimental method to extract these parameters based on the non-contact measurement of the natural frequencies of the lowest few eigenmodes of the microfabricated beam, and knowledge of Young's modulus and plan dimensions of the beam alone. The method exploits the fact that certain eigenmodes are insensitive to some of these structural parameters which enable a convenient decoupling and estimation of the parameters. As a result, the method does not require complicated finite element analysis, is insensitive to the gap height and introduces no contact wear or dielectric charging effects. Experiments are performed using laser Doppler vibrometry to measure the natural frequencies of doubly clamped, nickel, RF-MEMS capacitive switches and the method is applied to extract the residual stress, beam thickness, boundary compliance and post-release curvature.

  7. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity.

    PubMed

    Swann, Abigail L S; Hoffman, Forrest M; Koven, Charles D; Randerson, James T

    2016-09-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment. PMID:27573831

  8. Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

    2015-11-01

    Concurrent position shifts of the mid-level western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the upper-level South Asia high (SAH) are regarded as significant precursors for persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). By performing composite analyses, accountable vorticity genesis and dissipation are diagnosed based on a potential vorticity-diabatic heating theory. The results indicate that about 1 week preceding precipitation onset, a wave-like pattern of anomalous diabatic heating (Q) initiates its northwestward propagation from equatorial central Pacific. Subsequently, this wave-like pattern induces substantial changes in both horizontal and vertical structure of local Q along the propagating route. Forced negative vorticities in key areas result in the zonal approach between the SAH and the WPSH. During PEPEs, two thermal-induced vertical circulation cells take shape, with common strong ascent centered in the YRV. These anomalous cells are capable of self-maintaining for a few days via positive feedback processes. The WPSH and the SAH are therefore anchored in respective favorable positions for PEPEs. Simultaneously, descending motion of these two cells increases local solar radiation and decreases upward latent heat flux from surface, facilitating warmer underlying surface and swift accumulation of lower-level moisture. Correspondingly, enhanced heating to the north and rapid developing cyclone over warmer sea surface to the south combine to terminate above positive feedback processes. Finally, both the WPSH and the SAH retreat to their normal positions, accompanied by a quick decay of PEPEs.

  9. Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

    2016-08-01

    Concurrent position shifts of the mid-level western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the upper-level South Asia high (SAH) are regarded as significant precursors for persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). By performing composite analyses, accountable vorticity genesis and dissipation are diagnosed based on a potential vorticity-diabatic heating theory. The results indicate that about 1 week preceding precipitation onset, a wave-like pattern of anomalous diabatic heating (Q) initiates its northwestward propagation from equatorial central Pacific. Subsequently, this wave-like pattern induces substantial changes in both horizontal and vertical structure of local Q along the propagating route. Forced negative vorticities in key areas result in the zonal approach between the SAH and the WPSH. During PEPEs, two thermal-induced vertical circulation cells take shape, with common strong ascent centered in the YRV. These anomalous cells are capable of self-maintaining for a few days via positive feedback processes. The WPSH and the SAH are therefore anchored in respective favorable positions for PEPEs. Simultaneously, descending motion of these two cells increases local solar radiation and decreases upward latent heat flux from surface, facilitating warmer underlying surface and swift accumulation of lower-level moisture. Correspondingly, enhanced heating to the north and rapid developing cyclone over warmer sea surface to the south combine to terminate above positive feedback processes. Finally, both the WPSH and the SAH retreat to their normal positions, accompanied by a quick decay of PEPEs.

  10. The regulation of copper stress response genes in the polychaete Nereis diversicolor during prolonged extreme copper contamination.

    PubMed

    McQuillan, Jonathan S; Kille, Peter; Powell, Kate; Galloway, Tamara S

    2014-11-18

    Polychaetes are frequented in toxicological studies, one reason being that some members occupy shallow burrows in sediments and are maximally exposed to the contaminants that accumulate within them. We have been studying one population of the polychaete Nereis (Hediste) diversicolor exhibiting inheritable tolerance to extreme copper contamination in estuarine sediment. Using transcriptome sequencing data we have identified a suite of genes with putative roles in metal detoxification and tolerance, and measured their regulation. Copper tolerant individuals display significantly different gene expression profiles compared to animals from a nearby population living without remarkable copper levels. Gene transcripts encoding principle copper homeostasis proteins including membrane copper ion transporters, copper ion chaperones and putative metallothionein-like proteins were significantly more abundant in tolerant animals occupying contaminated sediment. In contrast, those encoding antioxidants and cellular repair pathways were unchanged. Nontolerant animals living in contaminated sediment showed no difference in copper homeostasis-related gene expression but did have significantly elevated levels of mRNAs encoding Glutathione Peroxidase enzymes. This study represents the first use of functional genomics to investigate the copper tolerance trait in this species and provides insight into the mechanism used by these individuals to survive and flourish in conditions which are lethal to their conspecifics. PMID:25337783

  11. An Examination of the Reliability, Data Screening Procedures, and Extreme Response Patterns for the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Furlong, Michael J.; Sharkey, Jill D.; Bates, Michael P.; Smith, Douglas C.

    2004-01-01

    This article explores psychometric characteristics of the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS), one of the most widely used instruments to assess the prevalence of violent and other high-risk behaviors in secondary school settings. Response patterns were analyzed for a subset of 414 youths who indicated that they had carried a weapon to…

  12. A note on weighted likelihood and Jeffreys modal estimation of proficiency levels in polytomous item response models.

    PubMed

    Magis, David

    2015-03-01

    Warm (in Psychometrika, 54, 427-450, 1989) established the equivalence between the so-called Jeffreys modal and the weighted likelihood estimators of proficiency level with some dichotomous item response models. The purpose of this note is to extend this result to polytomous item response models. First, a general condition is derived to ensure the perfect equivalence between these two estimators. Second, it is shown that this condition is fulfilled by two broad classes of polytomous models including, among others, the partial credit, rating scale, graded response, and nominal response models. PMID:24282130

  13. Using Modified Mercalli Intensities to estimate acceleration response spectra for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.; Bundock, H.; Seekins, L.C.

    2006-01-01

    We derive and test relations between the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and the pseudo-acceleration response spectra at 1.0 and 0.3 s - SA(1.0 s) and SA(0.3 s) - in order to map response spectral ordinates for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Recent analyses of intensity have shown that MMI ??? 6 correlates both with peak ground velocity and with response spectra for periods from 0.5 to 3.0 s. We use these recent results to derive a linear relation between MMI and log SA(1.0 s), and we refine this relation by comparing the SA(1.0 s) estimated from Boatwright and Bundock's (2005) MMI map for the 1906 earthquake to the SA(1.0 s) calculated from recordings of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. South of San Jose, the intensity distributions for the 1906 and 1989 earthquakes are remarkably similar, despite the difference in magnitude and rupture extent between the two events. We use recent strong motion regressions to derive a relation between SA(1.0 s) and SA(0.3 s) for a M7.8 strike-slip earthquake that depends on soil type, acceleration level, and source distance. We test this relation by comparing SA(0.3 s) estimated for the 1906 earthquake to SA(0.3 s) calculated from recordings of both the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes, as functions of distance from the fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  14. A PerR-like protein involved in response to oxidative stress in the extreme bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Chengzhi; Wang, Liangyan; Li, Tao; Lin, Lin; Dai, Shang; Tian, Bing Hua, Yuejin

    2014-07-18

    Highlights: • We report a novel PerR-like protein of Fur family in D. radiodurans that is not annotated in the current database. • drperR responses to H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and functions as a negative regulator of katE and dps. • We provided implications on how to utilize sequenced genome data and the importance of genome data mining. • This study adds knowledge to complicated regulatory network that responds to ROS stress in D. radiodurans. - Abstract: Response and defense systems against reactive oxygen species (ROS) contribute to the remarkable resistance of Deinococcus radiodurans to oxidative stress induced by oxidants or radiation. However, mechanisms involved in ROS response and defense systems of D. radiodurans are not well understood. Fur family proteins are important in ROS response. Only a single Fur homolog is predicted by sequence similarity in the current D. radiodurans genome database. Our bioinformatics analysis demonstrated an additional guanine nucleotide in the genome of D. radiodurans that is not in the database, leading to the discovery of another Fur homolog DrPerR. Gene disruption mutant of DrPerR showed enhanced resistance to hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}) and increased catalase activity in cell extracts. Real-time PCR results indicated that DrPerR functions as a repressor of the catalase gene katE. Meanwhile, derepression of dps (DNA-binding proteins from starved cells) gene under H{sub 2}O{sub 2} stress by DrPerR point to its regulatory role in metal ions hemostasis. Thus, DrPerR might function as a Fur homolog protein which is involved in ROS response and defense. These results help clarify the complicated regulatory network that responds to ROS stress in D. radiodurans.

  15. Response of key soil parameters during compost-assisted phytostabilization in extremely acidic tailings: effect of plant species.

    PubMed

    Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A; White, Scott A; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M

    2012-01-17

    Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ∼ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000-3000 mg kg(-1)) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites. PMID:22191663

  16. Response of Key Soil Parameters During Compost-Assisted Phytostabilization in Extremely Acidic Tailings: Effect of Plant Species

    PubMed Central

    Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A.; White, Scott A.; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A.; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M.

    2012-01-01

    Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ~ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000–3000 mg kg−1) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites. PMID:22191663

  17. Strong Earthquake Motion Estimates for the UCSB Campus, and Related Response of the Engineering 1 Building

    SciTech Connect

    Archuleta, R.; Bonilla, F.; Doroudian, M.; Elgamal, A.; Hueze, F.

    2000-06-06

    This is the second report on the UC/CLC Campus Earthquake Program (CEP), concerning the estimation of exposure of the U.C. Santa Barbara campus to strong earthquake motions (Phase 2 study). The main results of Phase 1 are summarized in the current report. This document describes the studies which resulted in site-specific strong motion estimates for the Engineering I site, and discusses the potential impact of these motions on the building. The main elements of Phase 2 are: (1) determining that a M 6.8 earthquake on the North Channel-Pitas Point (NCPP) fault is the largest threat to the campus. Its recurrence interval is estimated at 350 to 525 years; (2) recording earthquakes from that fault on March 23, 1998 (M 3.2) and May 14, 1999 (M 3.2) at the new UCSB seismic station; (3) using these recordings as empirical Green's functions (EGF) in scenario earthquake simulations which provided strong motion estimates (seismic syntheses) at a depth of 74 m under the Engineering I site; 240 such simulations were performed, each with the same seismic moment, but giving a broad range of motions that were analyzed for their mean and standard deviation; (4) laboratory testing, at U.C. Berkeley and U.C. Los Angeles, of soil samples obtained from drilling at the UCSB station site, to determine their response to earthquake-type loading; (5) performing nonlinear soil dynamic calculations, using the soil properties determined in-situ and in the laboratory, to calculate the surface strong motions resulting from the seismic syntheses at depth; (6) comparing these CEP-generated strong motion estimates to acceleration spectra based on the application of state-of-practice methods - the IBC 2000 code, UBC 97 code and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), this comparison will be used to formulate design-basis spectra for future buildings and retrofits at UCSB; and (7) comparing the response of the Engineering I building to the CEP ground motion estimates and to the design

  18. Extreme Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colvin, Jeff; Larsen, Jon

    2013-11-01

    Acknowledgements; 1. Extreme environments: what, where, how; 2. Properties of dense and classical plasmas; 3. Laser energy absorption in matter; 4. Hydrodynamic motion; 5. Shocks; 6. Equation of state; 7. Ionization; 8. Thermal energy transport; 9. Radiation energy transport; 10. Magnetohydrodynamics; 11. Considerations for constructing radiation-hydrodynamics computer codes; 12. Numerical simulations; Appendix: units and constants, glossary of symbols; References; Bibliography; Index.

  19. Understanding water extremes with caution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stehlík, Milan; Stehlíková, Silvia; Torres, Sebastián

    2016-06-01

    We discuss a sensitive topic, how to scientifically estimate extremes in water quality managements. Such extremes are incorporating establishment of thresholds or levels of certain chemicals in the drinking water. In particular, we address the water fluoridation and quality of drinking water in Chile. Statistical approaches demonstrating the necessary background of water manager will be given in a survey exposition to establish link between statistics of extremes and practice.

  20. Shear and Turbulence Estimates for Calculation of Wind Turbine Loads and Responses Under Hurricane Strength Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosovic, B.; Bryan, G. H.; Haupt, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    would encounter under hurricane strength winds. These flow fields can be used to estimate wind turbine loads and responses with AeroDyn (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/aerodyn/) and FAST (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/fast/) codes also developed by NREL.

  1. Multiple linear regression to estimate time-frequency electrophysiological responses in single trials

    PubMed Central

    Hu, L.; Zhang, Z.G.; Mouraux, A.; Iannetti, G.D.

    2015-01-01

    oscillations, obtaining single-trial estimate of response latency, frequency, and magnitude. This permits within-subject statistical comparisons, correlation with pre-stimulus features, and integration of simultaneously-recorded EEG and fMRI. PMID:25665966

  2. Multiple linear regression to estimate time-frequency electrophysiological responses in single trials.

    PubMed

    Hu, L; Zhang, Z G; Mouraux, A; Iannetti, G D

    2015-05-01

    oscillations, obtaining single-trial estimate of response latency, frequency, and magnitude. This permits within-subject statistical comparisons, correlation with pre-stimulus features, and integration of simultaneously-recorded EEG and fMRI. PMID:25665966

  3. Is the assumption of normality or log-normality for continuous response data critical for benchmark dose estimation?

    SciTech Connect

    Shao, Kan; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Setzer, R. Woodrow

    2013-11-01

    Continuous responses (e.g. body weight) are widely used in risk assessment for determining the benchmark dose (BMD) which is used to derive a U.S. EPA reference dose. One critical question that is not often addressed in dose–response assessments is whether to model the continuous data as normally or log-normally distributed. Additionally, if lognormality is assumed, and only summarized response data (i.e., mean ± standard deviation) are available as is usual in the peer-reviewed literature, the BMD can only be approximated. In this study, using the “hybrid” method and relative deviation approach, we first evaluate six representative continuous dose–response datasets reporting individual animal responses to investigate the impact on BMD/BMDL estimates of (1) the distribution assumption and (2) the use of summarized versus individual animal data when a log-normal distribution is assumed. We also conduct simulation studies evaluating model fits to various known distributions to investigate whether the distribution assumption has influence on BMD/BMDL estimates. Our results indicate that BMDs estimated using the hybrid method are more sensitive to the distribution assumption than counterpart BMDs estimated using the relative deviation approach. The choice of distribution assumption has limited impact on the BMD/BMDL estimates when the within dose-group variance is small, while the lognormality assumption is a better choice for relative deviation method when data are more skewed because of its appropriateness in describing the relationship between mean and standard deviation. Additionally, the results suggest that the use of summarized data versus individual response data to characterize log-normal distributions has minimal impact on BMD estimates. - Highlights: • We investigate to what extent the distribution assumption can affect BMD estimates. • Both real data analysis and simulation study are conducted. • BMDs estimated using hybrid method are more

  4. Application of Model Based Parameter Estimation for RCS Frequency Response Calculations Using Method of Moments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, C. J.

    1998-01-01

    An implementation of the Model Based Parameter Estimation (MBPE) technique is presented for obtaining the frequency response of the Radar Cross Section (RCS) of arbitrarily shaped, three-dimensional perfect electric conductor (PEC) bodies. An Electric Field Integral Equation (EFTE) is solved using the Method of Moments (MoM) to compute the RCS. The electric current is expanded in a rational function and the coefficients of the rational function are obtained using the frequency derivatives of the EFIE. Using the rational function, the electric current on the PEC body is obtained over a frequency band. Using the electric current at different frequencies, RCS of the PEC body is obtained over a wide frequency band. Numerical results for a square plate, a cube, and a sphere are presented over a bandwidth. Good agreement between MBPE and the exact solution over the bandwidth is observed.

  5. Geomorphic response to an extreme flood in two mountain rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy): the role of geomorphic and hydraulic controlling factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Righini, Margherita; Surian, Nicola; Wohl, Ellen; Amponsah, William; Marchi, Lorenzo; Borga, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Geomorphic response to an extreme flood in two mountain rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy): the role of geomorphic and hydraulic controlling factors Margherita Righini (1), Nicola Surian (1), Ellen Wohl (2), William Amponsah (3, 4), Lorenzo Marchi (3), Marco Borga (4) (1) Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Italy, (2) Department of Geosciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, (3) CNR IRPI, Padova, Italy, (4) Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Italy. The investigation of geomorphic effectiveness of extreme floods is crucial to improve tools for assessing channel dynamics and our capability of forecasting geomorphological hazard. This work deals with geomorphic response of two mountain rivers in the Posada catchment (northeastern Sardinia, Italy), considering a range of morphological (i.e., lateral channel confinement, channel gradient, channel sinuosity, sediment sources, and vegetation) and hydraulic variables (i.e., cross-sectional stream power, unit stream power, flow duration and total energy expenditure) as possible controlling factors. On November 18th 2013, northeastern Sardinia was affected by an extreme meteorological event with hourly rainfall intensities up to 100 mm/h and a peak in rain accumulation up to 450 mm in 24 hours, with 18 casualties and damages to infrastructure and buildings. In the Posada and Mannu di Bitti Rivers, the geomorphic response (i.e., bank erosion, channel aggradation and incision, vegetation and wood dynamics, hillslope failure) was analyzed at different spatial scales. The observed dominant geomorphic change was channel widening. Therefore, channel width changes have been analyzed in detail by remote sensing and GIS tools integrated by field surveys. The study focuses on reaches (i.e., 22.5 km in the Posada River, upstream of Maccheronis dam; 18.2 km in the Mannu di Bitti River) affected by evident and significant geomorphic responses in terms

  6. The effect of rainfall and competition intensity on forest response to drought: lessons learned from a dry extreme.

    PubMed

    Dorman, Michael; Perevolotsky, Avi; Sarris, Dimitrios; Svoray, Tal

    2015-04-01

    We investigated forest responses to global warming by observing: (1) planted Pinus halepensis forests, (2) an aridity gradient-with annual precipitation (P) ranging from ~300 to ~700 mm, and (3) periods of wet and dry climate that included the driest period during at least the last 110 years. We examined: (1) how the length of climatic integration periods to which trees are most responsive varies in space and time, (2) the extent to which competition modulates growth decline during drought (2011) and subsequent recovery (2012) years. The temporal scale of rainfall that was most influential on growth shortened in progressing southward, and in the drier than in the wetter period. Long-term underground water storage, as reflected in the relationship of growth to multiple-year rainfall, remained significant up to the point where P ≈ 500 mm. Under drier conditions (P < 500 mm) in both space and time, influential rainfall scales shortened, probably reflecting a diminishing role of water storage. These drier locations are the first from which the species would be likely to retreat if global warming intensified. Competition appeared to set an upper limit to growth, while growth variation among individual trees increased as competition-intensity decreased. That upper limit increased in 2012 compared with 2011. The observed insensitivity of slow-growing trees to competition implies that mortality risk may be density independent, when even any potential for higher soil moisture availability in open stands is lost to evapotranspiration before it can benefit tree growth. PMID:25656584

  7. Terrestrial atmospheric responses on Svalbard to the 20 March 2015 Arctic total solar eclipse under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Pasachoff, J M; Peñaloza-Murillo, M A; Carter, A L; Roman, M T

    2016-09-28

    This article reports on the near-surface atmospheric response at the High Arctic site of Svalbard, latitude 78° N, as a result of abrupt changes in solar insolation during the 20 March 2015 equinox total solar eclipse and notifies the atmospheric science community of the availability of a rare dataset. Svalbard was central in the path of totality, and had completely clear skies. Measurements of shaded air temperature and atmospheric pressure show only weak, if any, responses to the reduced insolation. A minimum in the air temperature at 1.5 m above the ground occurred starting 2 min following the end of totality, though this drop was only slightly beyond the observed variability for the midday period. Eclipse-produced variations in surface pressure, if present, were less than 0.3 hPa.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'. PMID:27550756

  8. Characterization of Multiple Heat-Shock Protein Transcripts from Cydia pomonella: Their Response to Extreme Temperature and Insecticide Exposure.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xue-Qing; Zhang, Ya-Lin; Wang, Xiao-Qi; Dong, Hui; Gao, Ping; Jia, Ling-Yi

    2016-06-01

    The economically important fruit pest Cydia pomonella (L.) exhibits a strong adaptability and stress tolerance to environmental stresses. Heat-shock proteins (HSPs) play key roles in insects in coping with environmental stresses. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal expression patterns of HSPs and their response to stresses in C. pomonella. In this study, a thermal treatment-recovery test was performed, and the expression profiles of a novel isolated HSP, named CpHSP40, and six CpHSPs were determined. Third-instar larvae were able to recover from cold shock (0 °C) and heat shock (40 °C). Escherichia coli BL21 (DE3) cells harboring recombinant pET-28a (+)-CpHSP40 plasmid showed significant temperature tolerance. CpHSPs were developmentally and tissue-specifically expressed. The responses of CpHSPs to 0 and 40 °C (with or without recovery) and insecticide exposure were varied. All of these indicated that the expression of HSPs plays a role in the development and in environmental adaptation in C. pomonella. PMID:27159229

  9. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of dose response in an inter-laboratory experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toman, Blaza; Rösslein, Matthias; Elliott, John T.; Petersen, Elijah J.

    2016-02-01

    An inter-laboratory experiment for the evaluation of toxic effects of NH2-polystyrene nanoparticles on living human cancer cells was performed with five participating laboratories. Previously published results from nanocytoxicity assays are often contradictory, mostly due to challenges related to producing a reliable cytotoxicity assay protocol for use with nanomaterials. Specific challenges include reproducibility preparing nanoparticle dispersions, biological variability from testing living cell lines, and the potential for nano-related interference effects. In this experiment, such challenges were addressed by developing a detailed experimental protocol and using a specially designed 96-well plate layout which incorporated a range of control measurements to assess multiple factors such as nanomaterial interference, pipetting accuracy, cell seeding density, and instrument performance. Detailed data analysis of these control measurements showed that good control of the experiments was attained by all participants in most cases. The main measurement objective of the study was the estimation of a dose response relationship between concentration of the nanoparticles and metabolic activity of the living cells, under several experimental conditions. The dose curve estimation was achieved by imbedding a three parameter logistic curve in a three level Bayesian hierarchical model, accounting for uncertainty due to all known experimental conditions as well as between laboratory variability in a top-down manner. Computation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The fit of the model was evaluated using Bayesian posterior predictive probabilities and found to be satisfactory.

  10. Varietal Response and Estimates of Heritability of Resistance to Meloidogyne javanica in Carrots

    PubMed Central

    Huang, S. P.; Vecchia, P. T. Della; Ferreira, P. E.

    1986-01-01

    With methods developed in this study, varietal responses to M. javanica were evaluated and heritability of resistance of two promising carrot cultivars was estimated. More egg masses were found on root systems inoculated with eggs added to the soil in three holes in 250 cm³ cups than by mixing the inoculum with soil in the cups. A resistant breeding line, CNPH 1437, was discriminated from susceptible cultivar Nova Kuroda with inoculum levels higher than 2,000 eggs per cup. Greenhouse and field results suggested that cultivars Nantes Superior and Shin Kuroda were susceptible, Kuronan was somewhat tolerant, and Brasilia and Tropical were resistant to M. javanica. Nantes Superior or Shin Kuroda yielded less in carbofuran-treated soil (3 kg a.i./ha) than Kuronan, Brasilia, and Tropical did in nontreated soil. However, incorporation of the nematicide greatly increased yields of Kuronan (32%), Brasilia (62%), and Tropical (91%). Primary root galling at the seedling stage was an adequate parameter for resistance evaluation. Estimated heritability were 0.48 ± 0.07 for primary root galling and 0.35 ± 0.08 for egg mass production in Brasilia, and 0.16 ± 0.11 for primary root galling and 0.31 ± 0.09 for egg mass production in Kuronan. PMID:19294218

  11. Reliable estimation of biochemical parameters from C3 leaf photosynthesis-intercellular carbon dioxide response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Wullschleger, Stan D; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Tu, Kevin; Law, Beverly E.

    2010-01-01

    The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis is a change-point model and structurally overparameterized for interpreting the response of leaf net assimilation (A) to intercellular CO{sub 2} concentration (Ci). The use of conventional fitting methods may lead not only to incorrect parameters but also several previously unrecognized consequences. For example, the relationships between key parameters may be fixed computationally and certain fits may be produced in which the estimated parameters result in contradictory identification of the limitation states of the data. Here we describe a new approach that is better suited to the FvCB model characteristics. It consists of four main steps: (1) enumeration of all possible distributions of limitation states; (2) fitting the FvCB model to each limitation state distribution by minimizing a distribution-wise cost function that has desirable properties for parameter estimation; (3) identification and correction of inadmissible fits; and (4) selection of the best fit from all possible limitation state distributions. The new approach implemented theoretical parameter resolvability with numerical procedures that maximally use the information content of the data. It was tested with model simulations, sampled A/Ci curves, and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements of different tree species. The new approach is accessible through the automated website leafweb.ornl.gov.

  12. Biology and survival of extremely halophilic archaeon Haloarcula marismortui RR12 isolated from Mumbai salterns, India in response to salinity stress

    PubMed Central

    Thombre, Rebecca S.; Shinde, Vinaya D.; Oke, Radhika S.; Dhar, Sunil Kumar; Shouche, Yogesh S.

    2016-01-01

    Haloarchaea are unique microorganism’s resistant to environmental and osmotic stresses and thrive in their habitats despite extreme fluctuating salinities. In the present study, haloarchaea were isolated from hypersaline thalossohaline salterns of Bhandup, Mumbai, India and were identified as Haloferax prahovense, Haloferax alexandrines, Haloferax lucentense, Haloarcula tradensis, Haloarcula marismortui and Haloarcula argentinensis. The mechanism of adaptation to contrasting salinities (1.5 M and 4.5 M) was investigated in the extreme haloarchaeon, Hal. marismortui RR12. Hal. marismortui RR12 increased the intracellular sequestration of K+ and Cl− ions in hypo salinity and hyper salinity respectively as detected by Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy microanalysis (EDAX) and Inductively Coupled Plasma- atomic Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-AES) indicating the presence of ‘salt-in’ strategy of osmoadaptation. As a cellular response to salinity stress, it produced small heat shock like proteins (sHSP) identified using MALDI-TOF MS and increased the production of protective red carotenoid pigment. This is the first report on the study of the concomitant cellular, molecular and physiological mechanism adapted by Hal. marismortui RR12 when exposed to contrasting salinities in external environment. PMID:27231230

  13. Biology and survival of extremely halophilic archaeon Haloarcula marismortui RR12 isolated from Mumbai salterns, India in response to salinity stress.

    PubMed

    Thombre, Rebecca S; Shinde, Vinaya D; Oke, Radhika S; Dhar, Sunil Kumar; Shouche, Yogesh S

    2016-01-01

    Haloarchaea are unique microorganism's resistant to environmental and osmotic stresses and thrive in their habitats despite extreme fluctuating salinities. In the present study, haloarchaea were isolated from hypersaline thalossohaline salterns of Bhandup, Mumbai, India and were identified as Haloferax prahovense, Haloferax alexandrines, Haloferax lucentense, Haloarcula tradensis, Haloarcula marismortui and Haloarcula argentinensis. The mechanism of adaptation to contrasting salinities (1.5 M and 4.5 M) was investigated in the extreme haloarchaeon, Hal. marismortui RR12. Hal. marismortui RR12 increased the intracellular sequestration of K(+) and Cl(-) ions in hypo salinity and hyper salinity respectively as detected by Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy microanalysis (EDAX) and Inductively Coupled Plasma- atomic Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-AES) indicating the presence of 'salt-in' strategy of osmoadaptation. As a cellular response to salinity stress, it produced small heat shock like proteins (sHSP) identified using MALDI-TOF MS and increased the production of protective red carotenoid pigment. This is the first report on the study of the concomitant cellular, molecular and physiological mechanism adapted by Hal. marismortui RR12 when exposed to contrasting salinities in external environment. PMID:27231230

  14. Estimating Ordinal Reliability for Likert-Type and Ordinal Item Response Data: A Conceptual, Empirical, and Practical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadermann, Anne M.; Guhn, Martin; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a conceptual, empirical, and practical guide for estimating ordinal reliability coefficients for ordinal item response data (also referred to as Likert, Likert-type, ordered categorical, or rating scale item responses). Conventionally, reliability coefficients, such as Cronbach's alpha, are calculated using a Pearson…

  15. Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

    2012-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

  16. Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Three-Parameter Polychotomous Item Response Models: Application of an EM Algorithm.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muraki, Eiji

    This study examines the application of the marginal maximum likelihood (MML) EM algorithm to the parameter estimation problem of the three-parameter normal ogive and logistic polychotomous item response models. A three-parameter normal ogive model, the Graded Response model, has been developed on the basis of Samejima's two-parameter graded…

  17. Maturation of lower extremity EMG responses to postural perturbations: relationship of response-latencies to development of fastest central and peripheral efferents.

    PubMed

    Müller, K; Hömberg, V; Coppenrath, P; Lenard, H G

    1991-01-01

    EMG responses to toe-up tilt perturbations on a movable platform system were analysed in 86 children between the age of 12 months and 13 years. To assess the relative contribution of peripheral and central nerve conduction properties, a concomitant recording of the fastest efferent pathways in the central and peripheral motor system was made using non-invasive transcranial magnetic stimulation of motor cortex and peripheral nerve roots. This allowed the determination of the fastest downstream efferent connection times from motor cortex to lumbar motor neuron pools and to measure the fastest efferent conduction from these motor neuron pools to effector muscles in the lower leg. The sequence observed for stance stabilizing EMG responses was similar to that obtained in earlier studies with short latency (SL) and middle latency (ML) companents occurring in the stretched triceps surae muscle and long latency (LL) responses occurring in the non-stretched tibialis anterior muscle. Homologous responses were also obtained in upper leg muscles, being recruited consistently later than those in lower leg muscles across all age groups. In the short latency range two different SL1- and SL2-responses were obtained in children of all age groups as well as in adult controls. Both the SL1- and the SL2-responses showed a flat developmental profile, reaching adult values between 20 and 30 months of age which correlated with that of the fastest efferents from lumbar motor neuron pools to leg muscles, i.e. the final motor path. ML-responses showed a steeper developmental profile.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:2065752

  18. Response Function Estimation of Marine Magnetotelluric Data Measured at Tristan de Cunha Hot Spot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, J.; Jegen, M. D.; Baba, K.; Utada, H.

    2015-12-01

    According to classical plume theory, the Tristan da Cunha hotspot is thought to have played a major role in the rifting of the South Atlantic margins and the creation of the aseismic Walvis Ridge by impinging at the base of the continental lithosphere shortly before or during the breakup of the South Atlantic margins. To understand the tectonic processes of the opening of the South Atlantic, the formation of the Walvis ridge and to understand, whether Tristan da Cunha is the cause or the consequence of the rifting, a network of 26 ocean-bottom magnetotelluric stations (OBMT) (cooperation between GEOMAR Germany and the Earthquake Research Institute at the University of Tokyo) and 24 broadband ocean-bottom seismometers was in operation during February 2012 and January 2013 within the framework of the project ISOLDE during the second phase of the SPP 1375. To complement the ocean-bottom network and the existing stations on Tristan da Cunha, one magnetotelluric land station and two land seismometers were installed on Nightingale Island. Marine magnetotelluric data is often contaminated with different levels of non-stationary noise originating from water waves, passing ships and tilt movements of the instruments. In traditional data processing, such noisy segments are removed from the time series before processing. As a consequence only a portion of data remains for response function estimation and accordingly no information about longer periods (deeper structure) remains. However, since the focus of this study is melt anomalies in the upper mantle, long period estimators of the response function are vital. To investigate which processing method yields the more reliable estimates between tens to 100 000 seconds (i.e. penetration depth from a few kilometers to approximately 600 to 800 km) for our recorded data, we applied and compared different sophisticated preprocessing and processing methods (e.g., pre-whitening, one-stage BIRRP, advanced two-stage BIRRP and

  19. Estimating the regional climate responses over river basins to changes in tropical sea surface temperature patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Chii-Yun; Forest, Chris E.; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-10-01

    We investigate how to identify and assess teleconnection signals between anomalous patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) changes and climate variables related to hydrologic impacts over different river basins. The regional climate sensitivity to tropical SST anomaly patterns is examined through a linear relationship given by the global teleconnection operator (GTO, also generally called a sensitivity matrix or an empirical Green's function). We assume that the GTO defines a multilinear relation between SST forcing and regional climate response of a target area. The sensitivities are computed based on data from a large ensemble of simulations using the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 3.1 (CAM 3.1). The linear approximation is evaluated by comparing the linearly reconstructed response with both the results from the full non-linear atmospheric model and observational data. The results show that the linear approximation can capture regional climate variability that the CAM 3.1 AMIP-style simulations produce at seasonal scales for multiple river basins. The linear method can be used potentially for estimating drought conditions, river flow forecasting, and agricultural water management problems.

  20. Responses of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, to temperature extremes and dehydration: levels of tolerance, rapid cold hardening and expression of heat shock proteins.

    PubMed

    Benoit, J B; Lopez-Martinez, G; Teets, N M; Phillips, S A; Denlinger, D L

    2009-12-01

    This study of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, examines tolerance of adult females to extremes in temperature and loss of body water. Although the supercooling point (SCP) of the bed bugs was approximately -20 degrees C, all were killed by a direct 1 h exposure to -16 degrees C. Thus, this species cannot tolerate freezing and is killed at temperatures well above its SCP. Neither cold acclimation at 4 degrees C for 2 weeks nor dehydration (15% loss of water content) enhanced cold tolerance. However, bed bugs have the capacity for rapid cold hardening, i.e. a 1-h exposure to 0 degrees C improved their subsequent tolerance of -14 and -16 degrees C. In response to heat stress, fewer than 20% of the bugs survived a 1-h exposure to 46 degrees C, and nearly all were killed at 48 degrees C. Dehydration, heat acclimation at 30 degrees C for 2 weeks and rapid heat hardening at 37 degrees C for 1 h all failed to improve heat tolerance. Expression of the mRNAs encoding two heat shock proteins (Hsps), Hsp70 and Hsp90, was elevated in response to heat stress, cold stress and during dehydration and rehydration. The response of Hsp90 was more pronounced than that of Hsp70 during dehydration and rehydration. Our results define the tolerance limits for bed bugs to these commonly encountered stresses of temperature and low humidity and indicate a role for Hsps in responding to these stresses. PMID:19941608

  1. Estimation of muscle response using three-dimensional musculoskeletal models before impact situation: a simulation study.

    PubMed

    Bae, Tae Soo; Loan, Peter; Choi, Kuiwon; Hong, Daehie; Mun, Mu Seong

    2010-12-01

    When car crash experiments are performed using cadavers or dummies, the active muscles' reaction on crash situations cannot be observed. The aim of this study is to estimate muscles' response of the major muscle groups using three-dimensional musculoskeletal model by dynamic simulations of low-speed sled-impact. The three-dimensional musculoskeletal models of eight subjects were developed, including 241 degrees of freedom and 86 muscles. The muscle parameters considering limb lengths and the force-generating properties of the muscles were redefined by optimization to fit for each subject. Kinematic data and external forces measured by motion tracking system and dynamometer were then input as boundary conditions. Through a least-squares optimization algorithm, active muscles' responses were calculated during inverse dynamic analysis tracking the motion of each subject. Electromyography for major muscles at elbow, knee, and ankle joints was measured to validate each model. For low-speed sled-impact crash, experiment and simulation with optimized and unoptimized muscle parameters were performed at 9.4 m/h and 10 m/h and muscle activities were compared among them. The muscle activities with optimized parameters were closer to experimental measurements than the results without optimization. In addition, the extensor muscle activities at knee, ankle, and elbow joint were found considerably at impact time, unlike previous studies using cadaver or dummies. This study demonstrated the need to optimize the muscle parameters to predict impact situation correctly in computational studies using musculoskeletal models. And to improve accuracy of analysis for car crash injury using humanlike dummies, muscle reflex function, major extensor muscles' response at elbow, knee, and ankle joints, should be considered. PMID:21142325

  2. The extremely broad odorant response profile of mouse olfactory sensory neurons expressing the odorant receptor MOR256-17 includes trace amine-associated receptor ligands.

    PubMed

    Tazir, Bassim; Khan, Mona; Mombaerts, Peter; Grosmaitre, Xavier

    2016-03-01

    The mouse olfactory system employs ~1100 G-protein-coupled odorant receptors (ORs). Each mature olfactory sensory neuron (OSN) is thought to express just one OR gene, and the expressed OR determines the odorant response properties of the OSN. The broadest odorant response profile thus far demonstrated in native mouse OSNs is for OSNs that express the OR gene SR1 (also known as Olfr124 and MOR256-3). Here we showed that the odorant responsiveness of native mouse OSNs expressing the OR gene MOR256-17 (also known as Olfr15 and OR3) is even broader than that of OSNs expressing SR1. We investigated the electrophysiological properties of green fluorescent protein (GFP)+ OSNs in a MOR256-17-IRES-tauGFP gene-targeted mouse strain, in parallel with GFP+ OSNs in the SR1-IRES-tauGFP gene-targeted mouse strain that we previously reported. Of 35 single chemical compounds belonging to distinct structural classes, MOR256-17+ OSNs responded to 31 chemicals, compared with 10 for SR1+ OSNs. The 10 compounds that activated SR1+ OSNs also activated MOR256-17+ OSNs. Interestingly, MOR256-17+ OSNs were activated by three amines (cyclohexylamine, isopenthylamine, and phenylethylamine) that are typically viewed as ligands for chemosensory neurons in the main olfactory epithelium that express trace amine-associated receptor genes, a family of 15 genes encoding G-protein-coupled receptors unrelated in sequence to ORs. We did not observe differences in membrane properties, indicating that the differences in odorant response profiles between the two OSN populations were due to the expressed OR. MOR256-17+ OSNs appear to be at one extreme of odorant responsiveness among populations of OSNs expressing distinct OR genes in the mouse. PMID:26666691

  3. Historical Channel Change on the Upper Gila River, Arizona and New Mexico in Response to Anthropogenic Modifications and Extreme Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klawon, J. E.; Levish, D. R.

    2003-12-01

    Over the past century, the majority of alluvial reaches along the upper Gila River in Arizona and New Mexico have been leveed in an attempt to protect adjacent property from flood damage. In addition, the demand for irrigation has prompted the construction of diversion dams in these alluvial reaches to divert water for agriculture. Detailed geomorphic mapping and investigation of historical channel change along the upper Gila River reveals that many channel modifications are catalysts for major channel change and can result in catastrophic property loss rather than safeguarding valuable farmland. Channel widths were measured every kilometer for approximately 160 km from Safford Valley, Arizona through Cliff-Gila Valley, New Mexico for eight decades to develop a quantitative analysis of channel change. An overall pattern of channel narrowing and widening coincides with periods of few large floods and periods of multiple large floods, respectively. Furthermore, reaches along the upper Gila River with greater channel modifications have experienced more variation in channel width than reaches with fewer modifications. Although the average width of the upper Gila River is very similar to the width of the 1935 channel, the lateral position of the channel is very different in many reaches. Many channel changes in recent decades are unprecedented in previous historical aerial photography and reveal that the upper Gila River is currently eroding stream banks that are several hundred years to thousands of years old. These changes are consistently associated with artificial channel constrictions, such as levees, bank protection, and bridges, that have been built and rebuilt following large floods and that have accelerated natural channel narrowing during periods of few large floods. Examples of geomorphic responses due to channel modifications along the upper Gila River include lateral erosion upstream of levees and diversion dams, redirection of flow over diversion dams into

  4. Point: Clarifying Policy Evidence With Potential-Outcomes Thinking—Beyond Exposure-Response Estimation in Air Pollution Epidemiology

    PubMed Central

    Zigler, Corwin Matthew; Dominici, Francesca

    2014-01-01

    The regulatory environment surrounding policies to control air pollution warrants a new type of epidemiologic evidence. Whereas air pollution epidemiology has typically informed policies with estimates of exposure-response relationships between pollution and health outcomes, these estimates alone cannot support current debates surrounding the actual health effects of air quality regulations. We argue that directly evaluating specific control strategies is distinct from estimating exposure-response relationships and that increased emphasis on estimating effects of well-defined regulatory interventions would enhance the evidence that supports policy decisions. Appealing to similar calls for accountability assessment of whether regulatory actions impact health outcomes, we aim to sharpen the analytic distinctions between studies that directly evaluate policies and those that estimate exposure-response relationships, with particular focus on perspectives for causal inference. Our goal is not to review specific methodologies or studies, nor is it to extoll the advantages of “causal” versus “associational” evidence. Rather, we argue that potential-outcomes perspectives can elevate current policy debates with more direct evidence of the extent to which complex regulatory interventions affect health. Augmenting the existing body of exposure-response estimates with rigorous evidence of the causal effects of well-defined actions will ensure that the highest-level epidemiologic evidence continues to support regulatory policies. PMID:25399414

  5. Point: clarifying policy evidence with potential-outcomes thinking--beyond exposure-response estimation in air pollution epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Zigler, Corwin Matthew; Dominici, Francesca

    2014-12-15

    The regulatory environment surrounding policies to control air pollution warrants a new type of epidemiologic evidence. Whereas air pollution epidemiology has typically informed policies with estimates of exposure-response relationships between pollution and health outcomes, these estimates alone cannot support current debates surrounding the actual health effects of air quality regulations. We argue that directly evaluating specific control strategies is distinct from estimating exposure-response relationships and that increased emphasis on estimating effects of well-defined regulatory interventions would enhance the evidence that supports policy decisions. Appealing to similar calls for accountability assessment of whether regulatory actions impact health outcomes, we aim to sharpen the analytic distinctions between studies that directly evaluate policies and those that estimate exposure-response relationships, with particular focus on perspectives for causal inference. Our goal is not to review specific methodologies or studies, nor is it to extoll the advantages of "causal" versus "associational" evidence. Rather, we argue that potential-outcomes perspectives can elevate current policy debates with more direct evidence of the extent to which complex regulatory interventions affect health. Augmenting the existing body of exposure-response estimates with rigorous evidence of the causal effects of well-defined actions will ensure that the highest-level epidemiologic evidence continues to support regulatory policies. PMID:25399414

  6. Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

    2016-04-01

    A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as

  7. Estimating 11-year solar UV variations using 27-day response as a guide to isolate trends in total column ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keating, G. M.; Brasseur, G. P.; Chiou, L. S.; Hsu, N. C.

    1994-01-01

    The total column ozone response to 11-year solar ultraviolet (UV) variations is estimated here from the observed response to 27-day solar variations adjusted for the theoretical difference between the 27-day response and 11-year response. The estimate is tested by comparing two data sets where long-term drifts have been removed, the Nimbus 7 TOMS Version 6 total column ozone and the 280 nm core-to-wing ratio (a proxy for solar UV variations). The 365-day running means of data area-weighted between 40 deg N to 40 deg S latitude give a 1.9% ozone variation related to the 11-year solar cycle compared with the estimate of 1.8%. Estimates of linear trends were reduced by a factor of 2 by including solar effects. The standard deviation from the empirical model was reduced from 1.0 to 0.6 Dobson Units, by including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but the QBO did not significantly alter trend estimates. Both the ozone responses to 27-day and 11-year solar variations were considerably stronger than predicted by a 2-D theoretical model.

  8. Photoprotective Response in Plants Impacts Estimation of Biophysical Parameters Using Spectral Reflectance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zygielbaum, A. I.; Arkebauer, T. J.; Walter-Shea, E.

    2014-12-01

    Previously, we reported that reflectance increased across the whole PAR spectrum when plants were subjected to water stress. This effect was shown to exist in maize grown under greenhouse conditions and under field conditions. Greenhouse experiments showed that, in addition to leaf water content, the effect was strongly correlated with incident light intensity. Further, through the use of an integrating sphere, we demonstrated that the change in reflectance was due to a change in absorption rather than in a change scattering or other optical path effect. Time lapse microscopy showed lightening between leaf veins analogous to effects measured by researchers observing cross sections of stressed C4 plants. To further refine our study, additional leaf level and canopy level studies were undertaken. Excised leaf sections were separately exposed to red and white light in the laboratory as the leaf dried. Increasing reflectance and transmittance were observed for the section exposed to white light, while little change was observed under red light. Each of these observations can be explained by chloroplast avoidance movement, a photoprotective response causing chloroplasts to aggregate along cell walls effectively hiding chlorophyll from observation. Chloroplast movement, for example, is driven by blue light; explaining the lack of observed change under red light. Estimation of biophysical parameters, such as chlorophyll content and greenness, are affected by the difference between the "apparent" chlorophyll content and the actual chlorophyll content of leaves and canopies. Up to 30% changes in the VARI remote sensing index have been observed morning to afternoon in field-grown maize. Ten percent changes in chlorophyll estimates have been observed in greenhouse maize. We will report on further research and on the extension of our work to include the impact of chloroplast avoidance on remote sensing of C3 plants, specifically soybean, at leaf and canopy levels.

  9. Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

  10. Structural Equation Model Approach to the Use of Response Times for Improving Estimation in Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sen, Rohini

    2012-01-01

    In the last five decades, research on the uses of response time has extended into the field of psychometrics (Schnikpe & Scrams, 1999; van der Linden, 2006; van der Linden, 2007), where interest has centered around the usefulness of response time information in item calibration and person measurement within an item response theory. framework.…

  11. Eastern Australian Coastal Behaviour in Response to Extreme Storm Climate Between 1600-1900 AD, Determined from a Coupled Climate Reconstruction and Coastal Morphodynamic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, I. D.; Browning, S. A.; Mortlock, T.

    2014-12-01

    A sustained morphodynamic reorganisation of the east Australian coast occurred over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) between ~1600 to 1900 CE. These changes indicate that a large-scale shift in the modal climate occurred together with changes in extreme storm frequency or clustering of East Coast Cyclones (ECC), when compared to the past century. ECC are complex subtropical weather systems that form off the east coast of Australia and/or travel parallel to the coast of Australia from south-east Queensland to Victoria. We investigate coastal evolution and the associated climate drivers using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, using a paleoclimate data assimilation approach; together with wave transformation and coastal planform modelling for paleo-wave directions, and historical bathymetry. We present the morphodynamic response to changes in directional wave power, by linking the paleo-windfield reconstruction to wave transformation models. The combined methodology has illuminated the 'ultimate' storm impacts not seen in the past century, and defines the multi-decadal coastal system response and recovery to extreme storm sequences. Increased embaymentisation and anticlockwise rotation of embayed and barrier coast planform geometry; shifts in barrier-estuary-inlet configuration; and a ubiquitous foredune transgression, are shown to have occurred between ~1600 to 1800 CE. This was in response to a poleward shift in the subtropics and frequency of tradewind-driven wave climate, and tropical-origin storms. From 1800 to 1900 CE, an equatorward shift in the subtropics, and clustering of extratropical-origin storms drove an increase in the shoreface-littoral sediment budget and a clockwise coastline progradation. This

  12. Exome sequencing of extreme clopidogrel response phenotypes identifies B4GALT2 as a determinant of on-treatment platelet reactivity.

    PubMed

    Scott, S A; Collet, J-P; Baber, U; Yang, Y; Peter, I; Linderman, M; Sload, J; Qiao, W; Kini, A S; Sharma, S K; Desnick, R J; Fuster, V; Hajjar, R J; Montalescot, G; Hulot, J-S

    2016-09-01

    Interindividual variability in platelet aggregation is common among patients treated with clopidogrel and both high on-treatment platelet reactivity (HTPR) and low on-treatment platelet reactivity (LTPR) increase risks for adverse clinical outcomes. CYP2C19 influences clopidogrel response but only accounts for ∼12% of the variability in platelet reactivity. To identify novel variants implicated in on-treatment platelet reactivity, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) with extreme pharmacodynamic responses to clopidogrel and wild-type CYP2C19 were subjected to exome sequencing. Candidate variants that clustered in the LTPR subgroup subsequently were genotyped across the discovery cohort (n = 636). Importantly, carriers of B4GALT2 c.909C>T had lower on-treatment P2Y12 reaction units (PRUs; P = 0.0077) and residual platelet aggregation (P = 0.0008) compared with noncarriers, which remained significant after adjusting for CYP2C19 and other clinical variables in both the discovery (P = 0.0298) and replication (n = 160; PRU: P = 0.0001) cohorts. B4GALT2 is a platelet-expressed galactosyltransferase, indicating that B4GALT2 c.909C>T may influence clopidogrel sensitivity through atypical cell-surface glycoprotein processing and platelet adhesion. PMID:27213804

  13. Grouping of Experimental Conditions as an Approach to Evaluate Effects of Extremely Low-Frequency Magnetic Fields on Oxidative Response in in vitro Studies

    PubMed Central

    Mattsson, Mats-Olof; Simkó, Myrtill

    2014-01-01

    A large body of literature deals with biological effects of extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF MFs) studied in vitro. Despite the multitude of studies, no coherent picture has evolved regarding the plausibility of effects at low-flux densities or regarding the interaction mechanisms. Here, we propose that ELF MF exposure in vitro causes changes in oxidative status as an early response. We tested this hypothesis by scrutinizing the literature and applying a grouping approach for analyzing relevant biological properties and exposure conditions. A total of 41 scientific original publications were analyzed for this purpose. The conclusion from the work is that ELF MF (modulated or unmodulated) consistently can influence the oxidative status, at or above 1 mT, in a broad range of cell types and independent of exposure duration. A response at lower flux densities is seen in certain studies, although not consistently. Further studies with stringent protocols for sham exposure, blinding, and statistical analysis as well as appropriate positive controls are needed to establish if true dose-relationships for effects on oxidative status exist. PMID:25229055

  14. Ventilatory and metabolic responses of burrowing owls, Athene cunicularia, to moderate and extreme hypoxia: analysis of the hypoxic ventilatory threshold vs. hemoglobin oxygen affinity relationship in birds.

    PubMed

    Kilgore, Delbert L; Boggs, Dona F; Kilgore, Trevor J; Colby, Conrad; Williams, Burl R; Bavis, Ryan W

    2008-06-01

    We measured ventilation, oxygen consumption and blood gases in burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breathing moderate and extreme hypoxic gas mixtures to determine their hypoxic ventilatory threshold (HVT) and to assess if they, like other birds and mammals, exhibit a relationship between HVT and hemoglobin O2 affinity (P(50)) of their blood. An earlier report of an attenuated ventilatory responsiveness of this species to hypoxia was enigmatic given the low O2 affinity (high P(50)) of burrowing owl hemoglobin. In the current study, burrowing owls breathing 11% and 9% O2 showed a significantly elevated total ventilation. The arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) at which ventilation is elevated above normoxic values in burrowing owls was 58 mm Hg. This threshold value conforms well to expectations based on the high P(50) of their hemoglobin and the HVT vs. P(50) relationship for birds developed in this study. Correcting for phylogenetic relatedness in the multi-species analysis had no effect on the HVT vs. P(50) relationship. Also, because burrowing owls in this study did not show a hypometabolic response at any level of hypoxia (even at 9% O2); HVT described in terms of percent change in oxygen convection requirement is identical to that based on ventilation alone. PMID:17561426

  15. Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan

    2006-04-01

    The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis or cyclones, is often based on short-term historical records that may not reflect the full range or magnitude of events possible. As human populations grow, especially in hazard-prone areas, methods for accurately assessing natural hazard risks are becoming increasingly important. In Extreme Events Jonathan Nott describes the many methods used to reconstruct such hazards from natural long-term records. He demonstrates how long-term (multi-century to millennial) records are essential in gaining a realistic understanding of the variability of natural hazards, and how short-term historical records can often misrepresent the likely risks associated with natural hazards. This book will form a useful resource for students taking courses covering natural hazards and risk assessment. It will also be valuable for urban planners, policy makers and non-specialists as a guide to understanding and reconstructing long-term records of natural hazards. Explains mechanisms that cause extreme events and discusses their prehistoric records Describes how to reconstruct long-term records of natural hazards in order to make accurate risk assessments Demonstrates that natural hazards can follow cycles over time and do not occur randomly

  16. Morphological and transcriptional response of an anhydrobiotic insect to ionizing radiation and desiccation: steps forward in understanding molecular background of extreme radioresistance in higher eukaryotes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusev, Oleg; Novikova, Nataliya; Sychev, Vladimir; Okuda, Takashi; Kikawada, Takahiro; Sakashita, Tetsuya; Mukae, Kyosuke

    2012-07-01

    Life in extreme or drastically changing environments in many cases leads to evolutionary evolvement of mechanisms of cross-resistance to different abiotic stresses, often never actually faced by the organism in its natural habitat. Larvae of the sleeping chironomidPolypedilum vanderplanki (Diptera) are able to resist complete desiccation and in the dry form survive under excess of various abiotic stresses, including exposure to space environment. One of the most intriguing features of the anhydrobiotic larvae is resistance to extremely high doses of different types of ionizing radiation. To understand the cross-tolerance mechanism, we have analyzed the structural changes in the nuclear DNA using transmission electron microscopy and DNA comet assays in relation to anhydrobiosis and radiation. We find that dehydration causes alterations in chromatin structure and a severe fragmentation of nuclear DNA in the cells of the larvae despite successful anhydrobiosis. The DNA fragmentation level and the recovery of DNA integrity in the rehydrated after anhydrobiosis larvae were similar to those of hydrated larvae irradiated with 70 Gy of high-linear energy transfer (LET) ions (4He+). In comparison, low-LET radiation (gamma rays) of the same dose causes less initial damage to the larvae, and recovery of DNA repair is complete within 24 h. Genome-wide analysis of mRNA expression in the larvae revealed that a large group of genes (including antioxidants, anhydrobiosis-specific biomolecules and protein-reparation enzymes) showed a similar patterns of activity in response to both desiccation and ionizing radiation. We conclude that t one of the factors explaining the relationship between the resistance to ionizing radiation and the ability to undergo anhydrobiosis in the sleeping chironomid would be an adaptation to desiccation-inflicted proteins and nuclear DNA damage.

  17. How Extreme Temperatures Impact Organisms and the Evolution of their Thermal Tolerance.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Lauren B; Huey, Raymond B

    2016-07-01

    SynopsisUnderstanding the biological impacts of extreme temperatures requires translating meteorological estimates into organismal responses, but that translation is complex. In general, the physiological stress induced by a given thermal extreme should increase with the extreme's magnitude and duration, though acclimation may buffer that stress. However, organisms can differ strikingly in their exposure to and tolerance of a given extreme temperatures. Moreover, their sensitivity to extremes can vary during ontogeny, across seasons, and among species; and that sensitivity and its variation should be subject to selection. We use a simple quantitative genetic model and demonstrate that thermal extremes-even when at low frequency-can substantially influence the evolution of thermal sensitivity, particularly when the extremes cause mortality or persistent physiological injury, or when organisms are unable to use behavior to buffer exposure to extremes. Thermal extremes can drive organisms in temperate and tropical sites to have similar thermal tolerances despite major differences in mean temperatures. Indeed, the model correctly predicts that Australian Drosophila should have shallower latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance than would be expected based only on gradients in mean conditions. Predicting responses to climate change requires understanding not only how past selection to tolerate thermal extremes has helped establish existing geographic gradients in thermal tolerances, but also how increasing the incidence of thermal extremes will alter geographic gradients in the future. PMID:27126981

  18. Auditory brainstem responses in the Eastern Screech Owl: An estimate of auditory thresholds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brittan-Powell, Elizabeth F.; Lohr, Bernard; Hahn, D. Caldwell; Dooling, Robert J.

    2005-07-01

    The auditory brainstem response (ABR), a measure of neural synchrony, was used to estimate auditory sensitivity in the eastern screech owl (Megascops asio). The typical screech owl ABR waveform showed two to three prominent peaks occurring within 5 ms of stimulus onset. As sound pressure levels increased, the ABR peak amplitude increased and latency decreased. With an increasing stimulus presentation rate, ABR peak amplitude decreased and latency increased. Generally, changes in the ABR waveform to stimulus intensity and repetition rate are consistent with the pattern found in several avian families. The ABR audiogram shows that screech owls hear best between 1.5 and 6.4 kHz with the most acute sensitivity between 4-5.7 kHz. The shape of the average screech owl ABR audiogram is similar to the shape of the behaviorally measured audiogram of the barn owl, except at the highest frequencies. Our data also show differences in overall auditory sensitivity between the color morphs of screech owls.

  19. Auditory brainstem responses in the Eastern Screech Owl: An estimate of auditory thresholds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brittan-Powell, E.F.; Lohr, B.; Hahn, D.C.; Dooling, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    The auditory brainstem response (ABR), a measure of neural synchrony, was used to estimate auditory sensitivity in the eastern screech owl (Megascops asio). The typical screech owl ABR waveform showed two to three prominent peaks occurring within 5 ms of stimulus onset. As sound pressure levels increased, the ABR peak amplitude increased and latency decreased. With an increasing stimulus presentation rate, ABR peak amplitude decreased and latency increased. Generally, changes in the ABR waveform to stimulus intensity and repetition rate are consistent with the pattern found in several avian families. The ABR audiogram shows that screech owls hear best between 1.5 and 6.4 kHz with the most acute sensitivity between 4?5.7 kHz. The shape of the average screech owl ABR audiogram is similar to the shape of the behaviorally measured audiogram of the barn owl, except at the highest frequencies. Our data also show differences in overall auditory sensitivity between the color morphs of screech owls.

  20. A new approach for estimating groundwater table fluctuation response to rainfall events in North China Plain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Z.; Xie, X.; Ma, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A rise or decline in water table in response to water budget is a function of rainfall volume and groundwater depletion intensity. Most research have focus on estimating water table fluctuations among various shallow aquifer resulting from recharge and discharge change, however, the methods commonly applied are limited in that the subsurface system is more complex. In this paper, a reliable approach based on statistics theory is presented for quantifying the correlation relationship among water table, rainfall events and groundwater depletion process. The detail monitoring data are used to multivariate regression analysis and established the relationship model between water table and groundwater depletion in the proposed method. We further employed the model to obtain water table fluctuation trend with manual controlled depletion in different rainfall conditions. We also identify how this model applied to North China Plain and examine the water table error. The results show that controlling the depletion process based on different rainfall frequency can promote groundwater table recover and the model can provide a reliable method to groundwater management.

  1. Translation of geophysical log responses to estimate subsurface hydrogeologic properties at the Hanford 300 Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenna, T. C.; Herron, M. M.; Ward, A. L.

    2011-12-01

    The geology and chemistry of the subsurface environment are fundamental factors controlling contaminant fate and transport, and thus play a critical role in remediation efforts at DOE sites. However, the subsurface is often heterogeneous and not well characterized. Petrophysical models that relate borehole neutron and gamma ray data to reservoir properties such as clay content, matrix density, porosity, and permeability are critical in the formation of meaningful reactive transport models. The objectives of our research are to: (1) analyze core and outcrop samples from representative facies for a variety of mineralogical, chemical and physical properties, (2) predict the response of a variety of neutron and gamma logging tools based on these measurements, (3) develop algorithms to translate log responses into formation properties useful for input in flow and reactive transport models such as matrix density, lithology, porosity, and permeability. Our analysis of selected core samples from Hanford well 399-3-18 (C4999) reveals significant correlations between K, Th, and U concentrations and both matrix density and total clay, as determined by pycmometry and Dual Range Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy, respectively. Based on these relationships, we developed algorithms to predict total clay and matrix density from existing spectral gamma logs. The availability of laboratory bulk density data allows us to compute porosity estimates for our sample set. The comparison of clay content and porosity reveals a relationship that is consistent with the relationship observed by Marion et al. (1992) and others, suggesting the existence of both clay-supported and framework (or grain) supported domains and the ability to estimate porosity from clay content. Further, the availability of total clay, matrix density, and porosity permit application of the k-Lambda model as a means to estimate permeability. These results, although limited, suggest the path towards developing

  2. Using Data Augmentation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the Estimation of Unfolding Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Matthew S.; Junker, Brian W.

    2003-01-01

    Unfolding response models, a class of item response theory (IRT) models that assume a unimodal item response function (IRF), are often used for the measurement of attitudes. Verhelst and Verstralen (1993)and Andrich and Luo (1993) independently developed unfolding response models by relating the observed responses to a more common monotone IRT…

  3. Precision Interval Estimation of the Response Surface by Means of an Integrated Algorithm of Neural Network and Linear Regression

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1999-01-01

    The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.

  4. The impact of reflectivity correction and conversion methods to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2014-05-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands. For most of the country this led to over 15 hours of near-continuous precipitation, which resulted in total event accumulations exceeding 150 mm in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Such accumulations belong to the largest sums ever recorded in this country and gave rise to local flooding. Measuring precipitation by weather radar within such mesoscale convective systems is known to be a challenge, since measurements are affected by multiple sources of error. For the current event the operational weather radar rainfall product only estimated about 30% of the actual amount of precipitation as measured by rain gauges. In the current presentation we will try to identify what gave rise to such large underestimations. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two different groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements taken, and 2) errors related to the conversion of reflectivity values in rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates. To correct for the first group of errors, the quality of the weather radar reflectivity data was improved by successively correcting for 1) clutter and anomalous propagation, 2) radar calibration, 3) wet radome attenuation, 4) signal attenuation and 5) the vertical profile of reflectivity. Such consistent corrections are generally not performed by operational meteorological services. Results show a large improvement in the quality of the precipitation data, however still only ~65% of the actual observed accumulations was estimated. To further improve the quality of the precipitation estimates, the second group of errors are corrected for by making use of disdrometer measurements taken in close vicinity of the radar. Based on these data the parameters of a normalized drop size distribution are estimated for the total event as well as for each precipitation type separately (convective

  5. Projections of Climate Extremes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M. D.; Tebaldi, C.; Snyder, C.; Schneider, S. H.

    2008-12-01

    In the next few decades, it is likely that California must face the challenge of coping with increased impacts from extreme events such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. Such events can cause significant damages, and are responsible for a large fraction of near-term climate-related impacts every year. Some extreme events have already very likely changed in frequency and intensity over the past several decades, and these changes are expected to continue with relatively small changes in average conditions. We synthesize existing research to characterize current understanding of the direct impacts of extreme events across sectors, as well as the interactions between sectors as they are affected by extreme events. We also produce new projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the future across climate models, emissions scenarios, and downscaling methods for producing regional climate information, for each county in California. We evaluate historical and projected changes for a suite of temperature and precipitation-based climate indicators, and we conduct a return level analysis to investigate projected changes in extreme temperatures. Finally, we include an analysis of the future likelihood of events similar in magnitude to specific historical events, such as the July 2006 heat wave. Consistent with other studies, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperature extremes in many areas, with the magnitude of change dependent on the magnitude of projected emissions and overall temperature increase. For example, in many regions of California, at least a ten-fold increase in frequency is projected for extreme temperatures currently estimated to occur once every 100 years, even under a moderate emissions scenario (SRES B1). Under a higher emissions scenario (SRES A2), these temperatures are projected to occur close to annually in most regions. Also consistent with other studies

  6. Outcomes for extremely premature infants.

    PubMed

    Glass, Hannah C; Costarino, Andrew T; Stayer, Stephen A; Brett, Claire M; Cladis, Franklyn; Davis, Peter J

    2015-06-01

    Premature birth is a significant cause of infant and child morbidity and mortality. In the United States, the premature birth rate, which had steadily increased during the 1990s and early 2000s, has decreased annually for 7 years and is now approximately 11.39%. Human viability, defined as gestational age at which the chance of survival is 50%, is currently approximately 23 to 24 weeks in developed countries. Infant girls, on average, have better outcomes than infant boys. A relatively uncomplicated course in the intensive care nursery for an extremely premature infant results in a discharge date close to the prenatal estimated date of confinement. Despite technological advances and efforts of child health experts during the last generation, the extremely premature infant (less than 28 weeks gestation) and extremely low birth weight infant (<1000 g) remain at high risk for death and disability with 30% to 50% mortality and, in survivors, at least 20% to 50% risk of morbidity. The introduction of continuous positive airway pressure, mechanical ventilation, and exogenous surfactant increased survival and spurred the development of neonatal intensive care in the 1970s through the early 1990s. Routine administration of antenatal steroids during premature labor improved neonatal mortality and morbidity in the late 1990s. The recognition that chronic postnatal administration of steroids to infants should be avoided may have improved outcomes in the early 2000s. Evidence from recent trials attempting to define the appropriate target for oxygen saturation in preterm infants suggests arterial oxygen saturation between 91% and 95% (compared with 85%-89%) avoids excess mortality; however, final analyses of data from these trials have not been published, so definitive recommendations are still pending. The development of neonatal neurocritical intensive care units may improve neurocognitive outcomes in this high-risk group. Long-term follow-up to detect and address

  7. The influence of ACE ID and ACTN3 R577X polymorphisms on lower-extremity function in older women in response to high-speed power training

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background We studied the influence of the ACE I/D and ACTN3 R577X polymorphisms (single or combined) on lower-extremity function in older women in response to high-speed power training. Methods One hundred and thirty-nine healthy older Caucasian women participated in this study (age: 65.5 ± 8.2 years, body mass: 67.0 ± 10.0 kg and height: 1.57 ± 0.06 m). Walking speed (S10) performance and functional capacity assessed by the “get-up and go” (GUG) mobility test were measured at baseline (T1) and after a consecutive 12-week period of high-speed power training (40-75% of one repetition maximum in arm and leg extensor exercises; 3 sets 4–12 reps, and two power exercises for upper and lower extremity). Genomic DNA was extracted from blood samples, and genotyping analyses were performed by PCR methods. Genotype distributions between groups were compared by Chi-Square test and the gains in physical performance were analyzed by two-way, repeated-measures ANOVA. Results There were no significant differences between genotype groups in men or women for adjusted baseline phenotypes (P > 0.05). ACE I/D and ACTN3 polymorphisms showed a significant interaction genotype-training only in S10 (P = 0.012 and P = 0.044, respectively) and not in the GUG test (P = 0.311 and P = 0.477, respectively). Analyses of the combined effects between genotypes showed no other significant differences in all phenotypes (P < 0.05) at baseline. However, in response to high-speed power training, a significant interaction on walking speed (P = 0.048) was observed between the “power” (ACTN3 RR + RX & ACE DD) versus “non-power” muscularity-oriented genotypes (ACTN3 XX & ACE II + ID)]. Conclusions Thus, ACE I/D and ACTN3 R577X polymorphisms are likely candidates in the modulation of exercise-related gait speed phenotype in older women but not a significant influence in mobility traits. PMID:24313907

  8. Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

    2014-11-01

    Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting changes across the globe. However, changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously may result in complex non-linear responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf and canopy scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (CLM3.5, ED2, JULES, SiB3, and SPA) to simulate the responses of canopy and leaf scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation. There was greater model-data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange to changes in temperature, than in the response to temperature of leaf area index (LAI), net photosynthesis (An) and stomatal conductance (gs). Modelled canopy scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf scale fluxes to LAI, and therefore in this study similarities in modelled ecosystem scale responses to drought and temperature were the result of inconsistent leaf scale and LAI responses among models. Across the models, the response of An to temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes. Consequently all the models predicted that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C colder, closer to the model optima for gs. There was however no model consistency in the response of the An-gs relationship when temperature changes and drought were introduced simultaneously. The inconsistencies in the An-gs relationships amongst models were caused by to non-linear model responses induced by simultaneous drought and temperature change. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need more complete validation to improve accuracy and consistency in the scaling of processes from

  9. EMG-Driven Forward-Dynamic Estimation of Muscle Force and Joint Moment about Multiple Degrees of Freedom in the Human Lower Extremity

    PubMed Central

    Sartori, Massimo; Reggiani, Monica; Farina, Dario; Lloyd, David G.

    2012-01-01

    This work examined if currently available electromyography (EMG) driven models, that are calibrated to satisfy joint moments about one single degree of freedom (DOF), could provide the same musculotendon unit (MTU) force solution, when driven by the same input data, but calibrated about a different DOF. We then developed a novel and comprehensive EMG-driven model of the human lower extremity that used EMG signals from 16 muscle groups to drive 34 MTUs and satisfy the resulting joint moments simultaneously produced about four DOFs during different motor tasks. This also led to the development of a calibration procedure that allowed identifying a set of subject-specific parameters that ensured physiological behavior for the 34 MTUs. Results showed that currently available single-DOF models did not provide the same unique MTU force solution for the same input data. On the other hand, the MTU force solution predicted by our proposed multi-DOF model satisfied joint moments about multiple DOFs without loss of accuracy compared to single-DOF models corresponding to each of the four DOFs. The predicted MTU force solution was (1) a function of experimentally measured EMGs, (2) the result of physiological MTU excitation, (3) reflected different MTU contraction strategies associated to different motor tasks, (4) coordinated a greater number of MTUs with respect to currently available single-DOF models, and (5) was not specific to an individual DOF dynamics. Therefore, our proposed methodology has the potential of producing a more dynamically consistent and generalizable MTU force solution than was possible using single-DOF EMG-driven models. This will help better address the important scientific questions previously approached using single-DOF EMG-driven modeling. Furthermore, it might have applications in the development of human-machine interfaces for assistive devices. PMID:23300725

  10. Limitation and applicability of microtremor records for site-response estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, G.; Kang, T.; Park, S.

    2010-12-01

    Site effects are the modifications of seismic motions which are traveling through near-surface materials. The impedance contrast between the topmost layer and bedrock may significantly amplify ground motions and augment their durations. Inelastic behavior of the geological media such as highly fractured/weathered rocks and unconsolidated sediments may absorb seismic energy, and thus damp the resulting ground motions. It is inherently most desirable to evaluate the site effects using seismic records from large earthquakes. If there are only small events that will be recorded by several seismograph stations, it becomes difficult to evaluate site effects using earthquake data. Recently a number of studies pay attention to microtremor records to assess site effects. The main reason of such efforts is that measurements are relatively easy regardless of site condition and cost-effective without necessity of waiting for earthquakes or of using active sources. Especially microtremor measurements are exclusively a useful option to assess site effects, and thus seismic microzonation, in the urban area and/or region of low to moderate seismicity. Spectral ratios of horizontal components to vertical component (HVSR) of microtremor records have been popular for estimation of site resonant frequency. Although some studies have shown that the amplitude of spectral ratios is an indicator of site amplification relative to bedrock motion, there are still debates on it. This discrepancy may originate from the deficiency of our understanding on the nature of microtremor. Therefore, it is important to understand the limitation and applicability of microtremor records for site-effect assessments. The focus on this problem is how microtremor responses on the subsurface structures and their physical properties, and how parameters deduced from microtremor analyses are related to site responses during earthquake ground motions. In order to investigate how these issues have a practical

  11. Estimating seismic site response in Christchurch City (New Zealand) from dense low-cost aftershock arrays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kaiser, Anna E.; Benites, Rafael A.; Chung, Angela I.; Haines, A. John; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Fry, Bill

    2011-01-01

    The Mw 7.1 September 2010 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, produced widespread damage and liquefaction ~40 km from the epicentre in Christchurch city. It was followed by the even more destructive Mw 6.2 February 2011 Christchurch aftershock directly beneath the city’s southern suburbs. Seismic data recorded during the two large events suggest that site effects contributed to the variations in ground motion observed throughout Christchurch city. We use densely-spaced aftershock recordings of the Darfield earthquake to investigate variations in local seismic site response within the Christchurch urban area. Following the Darfield main shock we deployed a temporary array of ~180 low-cost 14-bit MEMS accelerometers linked to the global Quake-Catcher Network (QCN). These instruments provided dense station coverage (spacing ~2 km) to complement existing New Zealand national network strong motion stations (GeoNet) within Christchurch city. Well-constrained standard spectral ratios were derived for GeoNet stations using a reference station on Miocene basalt rock in the south of the city. For noisier QCN stations, the method was adapted to find a maximum likelihood estimate of spectral ratio amplitude taking into account the variance of noise at the respective stations. Spectral ratios for QCN stations are similar to nearby GeoNet stations when the maximum likelihood method is used. Our study suggests dense low-cost accelerometer aftershock arrays can provide useful information on local-scale ground motion properties for use in microzonation. Preliminary results indicate higher amplifications north of the city centre and strong high-frequency amplification in the small, shallower basin of Heathcote Valley.

  12. A Critique of Raju and Oshima's Prophecy Formulas for Assessing the Reliability of Item Response Theory-Based Ability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-Chung

    2008-01-01

    Raju and Oshima (2005) proposed two prophecy formulas based on item response theory in order to predict the reliability of ability estimates for a test after change in its length. The first prophecy formula is equivalent to the classical Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. The second prophecy formula is misleading because of an underlying false…

  13. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Safety and Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction...

  14. Computer Adaptive Practice of Maths Ability Using a New Item Response Model for on the Fly Ability and Difficulty Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klinkenberg, S.; Straatemeier, M.; van der Maas, H. L. J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we present a model for computerized adaptive practice and monitoring. This model is used in the Maths Garden, a web-based monitoring system, which includes a challenging web environment for children to practice arithmetic. Using a new item response model based on the Elo (1978) rating system and an explicit scoring rule, estimates of…

  15. Taking the Missing Propensity into Account When Estimating Competence Scores: Evaluation of Item Response Theory Models for Nonignorable Omissions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Köhler, Carmen; Pohl, Steffi; Carstensen, Claus H.

    2015-01-01

    When competence tests are administered, subjects frequently omit items. These missing responses pose a threat to correctly estimating the proficiency level. Newer model-based approaches aim to take nonignorable missing data processes into account by incorporating a latent missing propensity into the measurement model. Two assumptions are typically…

  16. Mixture Item Response Theory-MIMIC Model: Simultaneous Estimation of Differential Item Functioning for Manifest Groups and Latent Classes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilir, Mustafa Kuzey

    2009-01-01

    This study uses a new psychometric model (mixture item response theory-MIMIC model) that simultaneously estimates differential item functioning (DIF) across manifest groups and latent classes. Current DIF detection methods investigate DIF from only one side, either across manifest groups (e.g., gender, ethnicity, etc.), or across latent classes…

  17. A Comparison of Item Parameter Standard Error Estimation Procedures for Unidimensional and Multidimensional Item Response Theory Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paek, Insu; Cai, Li

    2014-01-01

    The present study was motivated by the recognition that standard errors (SEs) of item response theory (IRT) model parameters are often of immediate interest to practitioners and that there is currently a lack of comparative research on different SE (or error variance-covariance matrix) estimation procedures. The present study investigated item…

  18. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Safety and Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction...

  19. [The possibilities for determining the passenger position inside the car passenger compartment based on the injuries to the extremities estimated with the use of the sequential mathematical analysis].

    PubMed

    Smirenin, S A; Khabova, Z S; Fetisov, V A

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to determine the diagnostic coefficients (DC) of injuries to the upper and lower extremities of the passengers inside the car passenger compartment based on the analysis of 599 archival expert documents available from 45 regional state bureaus of forensic medical examination of the Russian federation for the period from 1995 till 2014. These materials included the data obtained by the examination of 200 corpses and 300 live persons involved in the traffic accidents. The statistical and mathematical treatment of these materials with the use the sequential analysis method based on the Byes and Wald formulas yielded the diagnostic coefficients that made it possible to identify the most important signs characterizing the risk of injuries for the passenger occupying the front seat of the vehicle. In the case of the lethal outcome, such injuries include fractures of the right femur (DC -8.9), bleeding (DC -7.1), wounds in the soft tissues of the right thigh (DC -5.0) with the injurious force applied to its anterior surface, bruises on the posterior surface of the right shoulder (DC -6.2), the right deltoid region (DC -5.9), and the posterior surface of the right forearm (DC -5.5), fractures of the right humerus (DC -5.), etc. When both the driver and the passengers survive, the most informative signs in the latter are bleeding and scratches (DC -14.5 and 11.5 respectively) in the soft tissues at the posterior surface of the right shoulder, fractures of the right humerus (DC -10.0), bruises on the anterior surface of the right thigh (DC -13.0), the posterior surface of the right forearm (DC -10.0) and the fontal region of the right lower leg (DC -10.0), bleeding in the posterior region of the right forearm (DC -9.0) and the anterior region of the left thigh (DC -8.6), fractures of the right femur (DG -8.1), etc. It is concluded that the knowledge of diagnostic coefficients helps to draw attention of the experts to the analysis of the

  20. Hepatocyte responses to in vitro freezing and β-adrenergic stimulation: Insights into the extreme freeze tolerance of subarctic Rana sylvatica.

    PubMed

    do Amaral, M Clara F; Lee, Richard E; Costanzo, Jon P

    2015-02-01

    The wood frog, Rana sylvatica LeConte 1825, is a freeze-tolerant amphibian widely distributed in North America. Subarctic populations of this species can survive experimental freezing to temperatures below -16 °C, whereas temperate populations tolerate freezing only at temperatures above -6 °C. We investigated whether hepatocytes isolated from frogs indigenous to Interior Alaska (subarctic) or southern Ohio (temperate) had distinct characteristics that could contribute to this variation in freeze tolerance capacity. Following in vitro freezing, cell damage, as assessed from lactate dehydrogenase leakage, was similar between samples from Alaskan and Ohioan frogs. Preincubation of cells in media containing glucose or urea, the two primary cryoprotectants used by R. sylvatica, markedly reduced freezing damage to hepatocytes; however, results suggested that cells of the northern phenotype were comparatively more amenable to cryoprotection by urea. Stimulation of isolated hepatocytes with β-adrenergic agonists, which simulates the freezing-induced cryoprotectant mobilization response, gave rates of glucose production from endogenous glycogen reserves that were similar between the populations. Our findings suggest that extreme freeze tolerance in subarctic R. sylvatica does not require an enhanced ability of the liver to resist freezing stress or rapidly mobilize cryoprotectant. PMID:25581737

  1. [Responses of thymocytes and splenocytes to low-intensity extremely high-frequency electromagnetic radiation in normal mice and in mice with systemic inflammation].

    PubMed

    Gapeev, A B; Sirota, N P; Kudriavtsev, A A; Chemeris, N K

    2010-01-01

    Changes in T cell subsets and expression of cytokine genes in thymocytes and splenocytes after exposure of BAL/c mice to low-intensity extremely high-frequency electromagnetic radiation (42.2 GHz, 0.1 mW/cm2, exposure duration 20 min) under normal conditions and in systemic inflammation were studied using flow cytometry and the methods of reverse transcription and real-time polymerase chain reaction. It was found that the number of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells statistically significantly increased in the thymus and considerably decreased in the spleen of exposed animals. Apparently, the exposure of animals leads to an intensification of the host defense, by activating the T-cellular immunity. As for effector functions, the increased expression of IL-1beta and IFNgamma genes in thymocytes and essentially enhanced expression of IL-1beta, IL-10, and TNFalpha genes in splenocytes were observed in mice exposed against the background of a progressive inflammatory process. The experimental data obtained specify that the directed (anti-inflammatory) response of an organism to a specific combination of effective exposure parameters of electromagnetic radiation can be realized by the activation of particular immunocompetent cells and changes in the cytokine profile. PMID:20968076

  2. Extreme Rhetoric

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bracey, Gerald W.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the response by the Board on Testing and Assessment (BOTA), which is under the auspices of the National Research Council, regarding the Race to the Top (RTT) fund regulations that have been proposed by the U.S. Department of Education (ED). BOTA's commentary was offered in the "Letter Report to the U.S.…

  3. Extreme river response to climate-induced aggradation in a forested, montane basin, Carbon River, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beyeler, J. D.; Rossi, R. K.; Kennard, P. M.; Beason, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is drastically affecting the alpine landscape of Mount Rainier, encouraging glacial retreat, changes in snowpack thickness and longevity, and sediment delivery to downstream fluvial systems, leading to an extremely transport limited system and aggradation of the river valleys. River aggradation encourages devastating interactions between the pro-glacial braided fluvial systems and streamside floodplain ecosystems, in most places occupied by old-growth conifer forests. Current aggradation rates of the channels, bordered by late seral stage riparian forests, inhibit floodplain development, leading to an inverted relationship between perched river channels and lower-elevation adjacent floodplains. This disequilibrium creates a steeper gradient laterally towards the floodplains, rather than downstream; promoting flooding of streamside forest, removal and burial of vegetation with coarse alluvium, incision of avulsion channels, tree mortality, wood recruitment to channels, and ultimately widening the alluviated valley towards the glacially carved hillslopes. Aggradation and loss of streamside old-growth forest poses a significant problem to park infrastructure (e.g. roads, trails, and campgrounds) due to flood damage with as frequent as a two-year event. Other park rivers, the White River and Tahoma Creek, characterize two end-member cases. Despite an extremely perched channel, the White River is relatively stable; experiencing small avulsions while the old-growth streamside forest has remained mostly intact. These relatively small avulsions however severely impact park infrastructure, causing extensive flood damage and closure of the heavily trafficked state highway. Conversely debris flows on Tahoma Creek destroyed the streamside forest and migration across the valley is uninhibited. Mature streamside forests tend to oppose avulsions, sieving wood at the channel margins, promoting sediment deposition and deflection of erosive flows. Our study seeks to