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Sample records for extreme response estimation

  1. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  2. Estimating the Likelihood of Extreme Seismogenic Tsunamis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geist, E. L.

    2011-12-01

    Because of high levels of destruction to coastal communities and critical facilities from recent tsunamis, estimating the likelihood of extreme seismogenic tsunamis has gained increased attention. Seismogenic tsunami generating capacity is directly related to the scalar seismic moment of the earthquake. As such, earthquake size distributions and recurrence can inform the likelihood of tsunami occurrence. The probability of extreme tsunamis is dependent on how the right-hand tail of the earthquake size distribution is specified. As evidenced by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, it is likely that there is insufficient historical information to estimate the maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax) for any specific subduction zone. Mmax may in fact not be a useful concept for subduction zones of significant length. Earthquake size distributions with a soft corner moment appear more consistent with global observations. Estimating the likelihood of extreme local tsunami runup is complicated by the fact that there is significant uncertainty in the scaling relationship between seismic moment and maximum local tsunami runup. This uncertainty arises from variations in source parameters specific to tsunami generation and the near-shore hydrodynamic response. The primary source effect is how slip is distributed along the fault relative to the overlying water depth. For high slip beneath deep water, shoaling amplification of the tsunami increases substantially according to Green's Law, compared to an equivalent amount of slip beneath shallow water. Both stochastic slip models and dynamic rupture models of tsunamigenic earthquakes are explored in a probabilistic context. The nearshore hydrodynamic response includes attenuating mechanisms, such as wave breaking, and amplifying mechanisms, such as constructive interference of trapped and non-trapped modes. Probabilistic estimates of extreme tsunamis are therefore site specific, as indicated by significant variations

  3. Extreme wind turbine response during operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sørensen, John D.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.

    2007-07-01

    Estimation of extreme response values is very important for structural design of wind turbines. Due to the influence of control system and nonlinear structural behavior the extreme response is usually assessed based on simulation of turbulence time series. In this paper the problem of statistical load extrapolation is considered using techniques from structural reliability theory. Different simulation techniques to estimate extreme response characteristics are described and compared, including crude Monte Carlo simulation, Importance Sampling, and splitting methods such as the Russian Roulette and the Double and Clump algorithm. A statistically consistent technique is described for including statistical uncertainty and assessing the extreme 50-year response using simulated time series and conditioned on the model parameters. The peak over threshold method together with the Maximum Likelihood Method provides a tool to obtain consistent estimates incl. the statistical uncertainty. An illustrative example indicates that the statistical uncertainty is important compared to the coefficient of variation of the extreme response when the number of 10 minutes simulations at each mean wind speed is limited to 10.

  4. Extremes of Population Estimated from Kepler Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traub, Wesley A.

    2015-12-01

    The extremes of exoplanet population (0.5 to 16 Earth radii, 0.5 to 512 days period) are estimated from Kepler observations by comparing the observed numbers of planets at each radius and period against a simulation that accounts for the probability of transit and the estimated instrument sensitivity. By assuming that the population can be modeled as a function of period times a function of radius, and further assuming that these functions are broken power laws, sufficient leverage is gained such that the well-measured short-period extreme of the planet distribution can effectively be used as a template for the less-well sampled long-period extreme. The resulting population distribution over this full range of radius and period provides a challenge to models of the origin and evolution of planetary systems.

  5. Estimating the Response and Uncertainty Limits of Physical Processes in the South San Francisco Bay for Extreme Water Elevation Frequency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andes, L.; Wu, F.; Lo, J.; MacWilliams, M.; Lu, C.; Dean, R.; Hanes, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Coastal flooding in the far south San Francisco Bay (SSFB) can be a function of astronomical tide, residual tide (i.e. water elevation deviation from computed astronomical tide that is associated with many possible physical processes), in-bay wind speed and direction and fluvial discharge. These physical processes and coastal levee failure were considered as input parameters into a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to estimate extreme water elevation frequency in the SSFB. Limited data is available in the SSFB to estimate the contribution of these physical processes to extreme water elevation statistics. Over 100 years of measured water surface elevation (WSE) data is available at the San Francisco (SF) tide station. A sensitivity analysis of storm event sampling criteria was conducted to select significant events at the SF tide station for data transfer to the project site and statistical analysis. The coincidently sampled astronomical and residual tides at the San Francisco tide station were analyzed and used to develop the storm event databases. Sampling methods employed were compared with annual maximum and partial duration approaches. Additional statistical testing was performed to justify the assumption of coincident sampling. The selected database was found to be most representative of the full range of the combinations of astronomical and residual tides that contribute to extreme water elevation statistics at the project site. A look-up table of astronomical and residual tide, wind speed and direction, and levee failure in the form of WSE responses at the project site from the hydrodynamic simulations was established for the interpolation in the MCS. The hydrodynamic model simulations indicated that the astronomical tides in the SSFB amplify inversely as a function of tidal range at the SF tide station. The residual tide varies minimally as it propagates into the SSFB. In-Bay wind set-up from a significant event was found to contribute on the order of one foot

  6. Extreme Earthquake Risk Estimation by Hybrid Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the risk associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid modeling which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) modeling in order to estimate the seismic risk of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid modeling for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican

  7. Generalized IRT Models for Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Extreme response style (ERS) is a systematic tendency for a person to endorse extreme options (e.g., strongly disagree, strongly agree) on Likert-type or rating-scale items. In this study, we develop a new class of item response theory (IRT) models to account for ERS so that the target latent trait is free from the response style and the tendency…

  8. A Test-Length Correction to the Estimation of Extreme Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magis, David; Beland, Sebastien; Raiche, Gilles

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the estimation of extremely large or extremely small proficiency levels, given the item parameters of a logistic item response model, is investigated. On one hand, the estimation of proficiency levels by maximum likelihood (ML), despite being asymptotically unbiased, may yield infinite estimates. On the other hand, with an…

  9. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moody, John A.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  10. Materials Response under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Remington, B A; Lorenz, K T; Pollaine, S; McNaney, J M

    2005-10-06

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures, 10-100 GPa (0.1-1 Mbar) and strain rates (10{sup 6}-10{sup 8} s{sup -1}) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. The goal is an experimental capability to test constitutive models for high-pressure, solid-state strength for a variety of materials. Relevant constitutive models are discussed, and our progress in developing a quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure, shockless drive is given. Designs to test the constitutive models with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples are presented.

  11. Simulation and Estimation of Extreme Quantiles and Extreme Probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Guyader, Arnaud; Hengartner, Nicolas; Matzner-Lober, Eric

    2011-10-15

    Let X be a random vector with distribution {mu} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and {Phi} be a mapping from Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} to Double-Struck-Capital-R . That mapping acts as a black box, e.g., the result from some computer experiments for which no analytical expression is available. This paper presents an efficient algorithm to estimate a tail probability given a quantile or a quantile given a tail probability. The algorithm improves upon existing multilevel splitting methods and can be analyzed using Poisson process tools that lead to exact description of the distribution of the estimated probabilities and quantiles. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in a problem related to digital watermarking.

  12. Multiscale Measurement of Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolt, Daniel M.; Newton, Joseph R.

    2011-01-01

    This article extends a methodological approach considered by Bolt and Johnson for the measurement and control of extreme response style (ERS) to the analysis of rating data from multiple scales. Specifically, it is shown how the simultaneous analysis of item responses across scales allows for more accurate identification of ERS, and more effective…

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2010-12-01

    Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

  14. Methodology for estimating extreme winds for probabilistic risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Elliott, D.L.; Holladay, C.G.; Hubbe, J.M.

    1986-10-01

    The US Nuclear Reguulatory Commission (NRC) assesses the risks associated with nuclear faciliies using techniques that fall under a generic name of Probabilistic Risk Assessment. In these assessments, potential accident sequences are traced from initiating event to final outcome. At each step of the sequence, a probability of occurrence is assigned to each available alternative. Ultimately, the probability of occurrence of each possible outcome is determined from the probabilities assigned to the initiating events and the alternative paths. Extreme winds are considered in these sequences. As a result, it is necessary to estimate extreme wind probabilities as low as 10/sup -7/yr/sup -1/. When the NRC staff is called on to provide extreme wind estimates, the staff is likely to be subjected to external time and funding constraints. These constraints dictate that the estimates be based on readily available wind data. In general, readily available data will be limited to the data provided by the facility applicant or licensee and the data archived at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. This report describes readily available data that can be used in estimating extreme wind probabilities, procedures of screening the data to eliminate erroneous values and for adjusting data to compensate for differences in data collection methods, and statistical methods for making extreme wind estimates. Supporting technical details are presented in several appendices. Estimation of extreme wind probabilities at a given location involves many subjective decisions. The procedures described do not eliminate all of the subjectivity, but they do increase the reproducibility of the analysis. They provide consistent methods for determining probabilities given a set of subjective decisions. By following these procedures, subjective decisions can be identified and documented.

  15. Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Silva, Anisha

    This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

  16. A Simulation Study on Methods of Correcting for the Effects of Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wetzel, Eunike; Böhnke, Jan R.; Rose, Norman

    2016-01-01

    The impact of response styles such as extreme response style (ERS) on trait estimation has long been a matter of concern to researchers and practitioners. This simulation study investigated three methods that have been proposed for the correction of trait estimates for ERS effects: (a) mixed Rasch models, (b) multidimensional item response models,…

  17. Estimation of trends in rainfall extremes with mixed effects models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamruzzaman, M.; Beecham, S.; Metcalfe, A. V.

    2016-02-01

    Estimates of seasonal rainfall maxima at durations as short as 6 min are needed for many applications including the design and analysis of urban drainage systems. It is also important to investigate whether or not there is evidence of changes in these extremes, both as an indicator of the sensitivity of rainfall to anthropogenic and natural climate change and as an aid to the calibration of future scenarios. Estimation of trends in extreme values in a region needs to be based on all the available data if precision is to be achieved. However, extremes at different periods of accumulation at neighbouring sites are not independent because there are temporal and spatial correlations, respectively. A linear mixed effects (lme) model allows for this correlation structure, and can be fitted to unequal record lengths at different sites. The modelling technique is demonstrated with an analysis of monthly maximum rainfall, at nine aggregations between 6 min and 24 h, from six sites, with record lengths between 10 and 25 years, from a region in South Australia. In terms of mean value, there is no evidence of a trend or change in the seasonal distribution of the monthly extreme rainfall. However, there is a strong evidence of an increase in variability of monthly extreme rainfall, estimated as a 58% increase in absolute value of deviation from the mean over a 25 year period. Rainfall records are often only available as a daily accumulation. A formula for the ratio of the monthly maxima at durations shorter than 24 h, down to 6 min, to the 24 h monthly maximum, in terms of: duration, month of the year, and a site specific adjustment is estimated. There is a clear seasonal variation in the ratios and there is evidence of a difference between rainfall stations.

  18. Estimation of fatigue and extreme load distributions from limited data with application to wind energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzwater, LeRoy M.

    2004-01-01

    An estimate of the distribution of fatigue ranges or extreme loads for wind turbines may be obtained by separating the problem into two uncoupled parts, (1) a turbine specific portion, independent of the site and (2) a site-specific description of environmental variables. We consider contextually appropriate probability models to describe the turbine specific response for extreme loads or fatigue. The site-specific portion is described by a joint probability distribution of a vector of environmental variables, which characterize the wind process at the hub-height of the wind turbine. Several approaches are considered for combining the two portions to obtain an estimate of the extreme load, e.g., 50-year loads or fatigue damage. We assess the efficacy of these models to obtain accurate estimates, including various levels of epistemic uncertainty, of the turbine response.

  19. Response Strength in Extreme Multiple Schedules

    PubMed Central

    McLean, Anthony P; Grace, Randolph C; Nevin, John A

    2012-01-01

    Four pigeons were trained in a series of two-component multiple schedules. Reinforcers were scheduled with random-interval schedules. The ratio of arranged reinforcer rates in the two components was varied over 4 log units, a much wider range than previously studied. When performance appeared stable, prefeeding tests were conducted to assess resistance to change. Contrary to the generalized matching law, logarithms of response ratios in the two components were not a linear function of log reinforcer ratios, implying a failure of parameter invariance. Over a 2 log unit range, the function appeared linear and indicated undermatching, but in conditions with more extreme reinforcer ratios, approximate matching was observed. A model suggested by McLean (1991), originally for local contrast, predicts these changes in sensitivity to reinforcer ratios somewhat better than models by Herrnstein (1970) and by Williams and Wixted (1986). Prefeeding tests of resistance to change were conducted at each reinforcer ratio, and relative resistance to change was also a nonlinear function of log reinforcer ratios, again contrary to conclusions from previous work. Instead, the function suggests that resistance to change in a component may be determined partly by the rate of reinforcement and partly by the ratio of reinforcers to responses. PMID:22287804

  20. Areal rainfall construction and estimation of extreme quantiles.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penot, David; Paquet, Emmanuel; Lang, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Areal rainfall estimation and extrapolation to extremes is a key issue for catchment flood study. It is a tricky problem which deals with spatial interpolation (to build an estimate at the catchment's scale based on few rain gauges only), and probabilistic extrapolation (for extreme values estimation). In this study, several methods to build an areal rainfall estimation are compared. The first method is the commonly used Thiessen polygons. A second way to build an areal rainfall relies on the SPAZM method [Gottardi, 2012], in which daily rain fields are reconstructed at a 1km2 resolution, with an interpolation scheme integrating the altitude of the pixel and the weather type of the day. These two methods are compared to the stochastic rain field simulator SAMPO [Leblois et Creutin, 2013], which is an adaptation of the turning band method allowing to generate over 50 years of realistic rain fields. Several questions are tackled in this study: In a Thiessen estimation, how many rain gauges should be selected ? Which weighting scheme should be used ? SPAZM is an interpolator designed to produce unbiased mean annual precipitation (MAP) at a catchment's scale. So if a Thiessen areal rainfall is scaled to fit the MAP given by SPAZM, how does it affect its extreme rainfall estimation ? If a virtual rain gauges network is extracted from the rain fields generated by SAMPO, how do behave the Thiessen and SPAZM areal rainfall estimations based on these point values ? At the end, some abatement functions are obtained, showing the influence of the catchment's area and the options chosen to build the areal rainfall estimations. References: F. Gottardi, C. Obled, J. Gailhard, and E. Paquet, Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns : Application over french mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432-433:154 - 167, 2012. ISSN 0022-1694. E. Leblois and J-D. Creutin, Space-time simulation of intermittent rainfall with prescribed

  1. Evaluation of extreme precipitation estimates from TRMM in Angola

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pombo, Sandra; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Proença

    2015-04-01

    In situ ground observation measurement of precipitation is difficult in vast and sparsely populated areas, with poor road networks. This paper examines the use of remote sensors installed in satellites and evaluates the accuracy of TRMM 3B42 annual maximum daily precipitation estimates in Angola, in West Africa, a region where ground monitoring networks are generally. TRMM 3B42 estimates of annual maximum daily precipitation are compared to ground observation data from 159 locations. As a direct comparison between the two datasets for a common specific period and sites is not possible, a statistical approach was adopted to test the hypothesis that the TRMM 3B42 estimates and the ground monitoring records exhibit similar statistical characteristics. The study shows that the annual maximum daily precipitation estimates obtained from TRMM 3B42 slightly underestimate the quantiles obtained from the in situ observations. The use of remote sensing products to estimate extreme precipitation values for engineering design purposes is however promising. A maximum daily precipitation map for a return period of 20 years was computed and in the future, as the length of the remote sensing data series increases, it may be possible to estimate annual maximum daily precipitation estimates exclusively from these datasets for larger return periods. The paper also presents maps of the PdT/PDT ratios, where PdT is the annual maximum precipitation for a duration d and a return period of T years, and PDT is the annual maximum daily precipitation for a return period of T years. In conjunction with these maps it is possible to estimate the maximum precipitation for durations between 3 h and 5 days.

  2. Estimating temporal changes in extreme rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaccorso, Brunella; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-hour annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that, despite L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves corresponding to the last decade (2000-2009) are usually less steep than the ones of the previous periods, rainfall quantile estimates have increased during the 2000s due to a large increase in regional average median, mainly in Western Sicily.

  3. Combining Empirical and Stochastic Models for Extreme Floods Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

    2013-12-01

    Hydrological models can be defined as physical, mathematical or empirical. The latter class uses mathematical equations independent of the physical processes involved in the hydrological system. The linear regression and Gradex (Gradient of Extreme values) are classic examples of empirical models. However, conventional empirical models are still used as a tool for hydrological analysis by probabilistic approaches. In many regions in the world, watersheds are not gauged. This is true even in developed countries where the gauging network has continued to decline as a result of the lack of human and financial resources. Indeed, the obvious lack of data in these watersheds makes it impossible to apply some basic empirical models for daily forecast. So we had to find a combination of rainfall-runoff models in which it would be possible to create our own data and use them to estimate the flow. The estimated design floods would be a good choice to illustrate the difficulties facing the hydrologist for the construction of a standard empirical model in basins where hydrological information is rare. The construction of the climate-hydrological model, which is based on frequency analysis, was established to estimate the design flood in the Anseghmir catchments, Morocco. The choice of using this complex model returns to its ability to be applied in watersheds where hydrological information is not sufficient. It was found that this method is a powerful tool for estimating the design flood of the watershed and also other hydrological elements (runoff, volumes of water...).The hydrographic characteristics and climatic parameters were used to estimate the runoff, water volumes and design flood for different return periods.

  4. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Population without Power during Extreme Weather Events

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Fernandez, Steven J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2010-01-01

    One challenge in emergency preparedness and response during extreme weather events such as hurricanes and ice storms is estimating how many people may be without power and how long they could be without power. In this presentation, we will discuss a method for estimating the spatial distribution of people without power during extreme weather events. The method is based on a directional nearest-neighbor approach in which grid cells representing substation locations acquire other grid cells representing customers/population demand with respect to the capacity of each substation. We also present a method for estimating restoration time in case of an outage. The application of these methods during the 2008 hurricane season will also be discussed.

  5. Hematocrit estimation using online sequential extreme learning machine.

    PubMed

    Huynh, Hieu Trung; Won, Yonggwan; Kim, Jinsul

    2015-01-01

    Hematocrit is a blood test that is defined as the volume percentage of red blood cells in the whole blood. It is one of the important indicators for clinical decision making and the most effective factor in glucose measurement using handheld devices. In this paper, a method for hematocrit estimation that is based upon the transduced current curve and the neural network is presented. The salient points of this method are that (1) the neural network is trained by the online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) in which the devices can be still trained with new samples during the using process and (2) the extended features are used to reduce the number of current points which can save the battery power of devices and speed up the measurement process. PMID:26405979

  6. Estimation of extreme marine hydrodynamic variables in western Laizhou Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Yanchen; Qiao, Lulu; Xu, Jishang; Zhou, Chunyan; Ding, Dong; Bi, Wei

    2015-06-01

    Laizhou Bay and its adjacent waters are of great importance to China's marine oil and gas development. It is therefore crucial to estimate return-period values of marine environmental variables in this region to ensure the safety and success of maritime engineering and maritime exploration. In this study, we used numerical simulations to estimate extreme wave height, sea current velocity and sea-level height in western Laizhou Bay. The results show that the sea-level rise starts at the mouth of the bay, increases toward west/southwest, and reaches its maximum in the deepest basin of the bay. The 100-year return-period values of sea level rise can reach 3.4-4.0 m in the western bay. The elevation of the western part of the Qingdong Oil Field would remain above the sea surface during extreme low sea level, while the rest of the oil field would be 1.6-2.4 m below the sea surface. The return-period value of wave height is strongly affected by water depth; in fact, its spatial distribution is similar to the isobath's. The 100-year return-period values of effective wave height can be 6 m or higher in the central bay and be more than 1 m in the shallow water near shore. The 100-year return-period values of current velocity is about 1.2-1.8 m s-1 in the Qingdong Oil Field. These results provide scientific basis for ensuring construction safety and reducing construction cost.

  7. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  8. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  9. Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Charlene N.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Vose, James M.

    2016-04-01

    Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the impact of the interaction between forest management and precipitation. We use daily long-term data from paired watersheds that have undergone forest harvest or species conversion. We find that interactive effects of climate change, represented by changes in observed precipitation trends, and forest management regime, significantly alter expected streamflow most often during extreme events, ranging from a decrease of 59% to an increase of 40% in streamflow, depending upon management. Our results suggest that vegetation might be managed to compensate for hydrologic responses due to climate change to help mitigate effects of extreme changes in precipitation.

  10. Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, Rodney C.; Lang, Maik

    2015-07-30

    The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO2, GeO2, CeO2, TiO2, HfO2, SnO2, ZnO and ZrO2) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

  11. Mapping of Estimations and Prediction Intervals Using Extreme Learning Machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    Due to the large amount and complexity of data available nowadays in environmental sciences, we face the need to apply more robust methodology allowing analyses and understanding of the phenomena under study. One particular but very important aspect of this understanding is the reliability of generated prediction models. From the data collection to the prediction map, several sources of error can occur and affect the final result. Theses sources are mainly identified as uncertainty in data (data noise), and uncertainty in the model. Their combination leads to the so-called prediction interval. Quantifying these two categories of uncertainty allows a finer understanding of phenomena under study and a better assessment of the prediction accuracy. The present research deals with a methodology combining a machine learning algorithm (ELM - Extreme Learning Machine) with a bootstrap-based procedure. Developed by G.-B. Huang et al. (2006), ELM is an artificial neural network following the structure of a multilayer perceptron (MLP) with one single hidden layer. Compared to classical MLP, ELM has the ability to learn faster without loss of accuracy, and need only one hyper-parameter to be fitted (that is the number of nodes in the hidden layer). The key steps of the proposed method are as following: sample from the original data a variety of subsets using bootstrapping; from these subsets, train and validate ELM models; and compute residuals. Then, the same procedure is performed a second time with only the squared training residuals. Finally, taking into account the two modeling levels allows developing the mean prediction map, the model uncertainty variance, and the data noise variance. The proposed approach is illustrated using geospatial data. References Efron B., and Tibshirani R. 1986, Bootstrap Methods for Standard Errors, Confidence Intervals, and Other Measures of Statistical accuracy, Statistical Science, vol. 1: 54-75. Huang G.-B., Zhu Q.-Y., and Siew C.-K. 2006

  12. Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change.

    PubMed

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2014-08-28

    Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 °C, compared to -14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes. PMID:25164753

  13. Mitochondrial responses to extreme environments: insights from metabolomics.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Katie A; Griffin, Julian L; Murray, Andrew J; Edwards, Lindsay M

    2015-01-01

    Humans are capable of survival in a remarkable range of environments, including the extremes of temperature and altitude as well as zero gravity. Investigation into physiological function in response to such environmental stresses may help further our understanding of human (patho-) physiology both at a systems level and in certain disease states, making it a highly relevant field of study. This review focuses on the application of metabolomics in assessing acclimatisation to these states, particularly the insights this approach can provide into mitochondrial function. It includes an overview of metabolomics and the associated analytical tools and also suggests future avenues of research. PMID:25949809

  14. Challenges in Estimating and Predicting Extreme Weather and Climate statistics (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.

    2010-12-01

    A reliable estimation of extreme anomaly statistics from observational records or climate model simulations of limited length is a prerequisite for estimating any changes in those statistics under climate change. Extreme anomalies and events are by definition rare, which makes direct non-parametric estimation of their statistics prone to sampling errors, and some form of statistical modeling a necessity. In this regard it is not obvious whether the shifts in the extremes can be more reliably derived indirectly from the changes in the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of a climate variable or through the direct statistical modeling of the extremes using, say, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) or Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions given by Extreme Value theory. The former approach is physically attractive, but assumes that the distribution of the climate variable is characterized completely by its first two moments. The chief virtue of using the GEV and GP distributions is their quasi-universal applicability associated with limiting behavior. This strength is, however, offset by concerns about the extent to which the limiting behavior obtains in the problem at hand, and the practical weakness of making use of only the extreme, and not all, values in a data sample to estimate the parameters of those distributions. We are developing a new and complementary approach to this problem using the first four statistical moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis) of the probability density functions (PDFs) of a climate variable to estimate the entire PDF of that variable using the Stochastically Generated Skewed (SGS) probability distribution theory of Sardeshmukh and Sura (2009), whose validity has been demonstrated in both atmospheric and oceanic contexts (Sardeshmukh and Sura 2009, Sura and Sardeshmukh 2008). An important virtue of this approach is that it uses a physically based model to derive the entire PDF and not just its tails, and

  15. Reduced bias and threshold choice in the extremal index estimation through resampling techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomes, Dora Prata; Neves, Manuela

    2013-10-01

    In Extreme Value Analysis there are a few parameters of particular interest among which we refer to the extremal index, a measure of extreme events clustering. It is of great interest for initial dependent samples, the common situation in many practical situations. Most semi-parametric estimators of this parameter show the same behavior: nice asymptotic properties but a high variance for small values of k, the number of upper order statistics used in the estimation and a high bias for large values of k. The Mean Square Error, a measure that encompasses bias and variance, usually shows a very sharp plot, needing an adequate choice of k. Using classical extremal index estimators considered in the literature, the emphasis is now given to derive reduced bias estimators with more stable paths, obtained through resampling techniques. An adaptive algorithm for estimating the level k for obtaining a reliable estimate of the extremal index is used. This algorithm has shown good results, but some improvements are still required. A simulation study will illustrate the properties of the estimators and the performance of the adaptive algorithm proposed.

  16. Response Styles in Rating Scales: Simultaneous Modeling of Content-Related Effects and the Tendency to Middle or Extreme Categories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tutz, Gerhard; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    Heterogeneity in response styles can affect the conclusions drawn from rating scale data. In particular, biased estimates can be expected if one ignores a tendency to middle categories or to extreme categories. An adjacent categories model is proposed that simultaneously models the content-related effects and the heterogeneity in response styles.…

  17. Estimation of friction velocity from the wind-wave spectrum at extremely high wind speeds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takagaki, N.; Komori, S.; Suzuki, N.

    2016-05-01

    The equilibrium range of wind-waves at normal and extremely high wind speeds was investigated experimentally using a high-speed wind-wave tank together with field measurements at normal wind speeds. Water level fluctuations at normal and extremely high wind speeds were measured with resistance-type wave gauges, and the wind-wave spectrum and significant phase velocity were calculated. The equilibrium range constant was estimated from the wind-wave spectrum and showed the strong relationship with inverse wave age at normal and extremely high wind speeds. Using the strong relation between the equilibrium range constant and inverse wave age, a new method for estimating the wind speed at 10-m height (U 10) and friction velocity (u*) was proposed. The results suggest that U 10 and u* can be estimated from wave measurements alone at extremely high wind speeds in oceans under tropical cyclones.

  18. Exploring the Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Extreme Weather Events using Multiple Land Surface Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, L.; Schlosser, C. A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Felzer, B. S.; Monier, E.; Paw U, K.

    2012-12-01

    This study investigates the complex terrestrial ecosystems response to extreme weather events using three different land surface models. Previous studies have showed that extreme weather events can have serious and damaging impacts on human and natural systems and they are most evident on regional and local scales. Under climate change, extreme weather events are likely to increase in both magnitude and frequency, making realistic simulation of ecosystems response to extreme events more essential than ever in assessing the potential damaging impacts. Three different land surface models are used to explore the impacts of extreme events on regional to continental ecosystem responses. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) is a process-based ecosystem model that uses spatially referenced information on climate, elevation, soils, vegetation and water availability to make monthly estimates of vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes. The Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA) is a multi-layered land surface model based on eddy-covariance theory to calculate the biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon dioxide, water, and momentums. The Community Land Model (CLM) is a community-based model widely used in global-scale land data assimilation research. The study focuses on the complex interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere such as water cycle, carbon and nitrogen budgets, and environmental conditions. The model simulations and performances are evaluated using the biogeophysical and micrometeorological observation data from the AmeriFlux sites across the continental US. This study compares and evaluates the ability of different models and their key components to capture terrestrial response to extreme weather events.

  19. Quantifying the US Crop Yield in Response to Extreme Climatic Events from 1948 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The increasingly frequent and severe extreme climatic events (ECEs) under climate changes will negatively affect crop productivity and threat the global food security. Reliable forecast of crop yields response to those ECEs is a prerequisite for developing strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress of quantifying such responses with ecosystem models has been slow. In this study, we first review existing algorithms of yields response to ECEs among major crops (i.e., Corn, Wheat and Soybean) for the United States from a set of process-based crop models. These algorithms are aggregated into four categories of ECEs: drought, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, and frost. Species-specific ECEs thresholds as tipping point of crop yield response curve are examined. Four constraint scalar functions derived for each category of ECEs are then added to an agricultural ecosystem model, CLM-AG, respectively. The revised model is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 to estimate the US major crop yields, and then evaluated with county-level yield statistics from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). We also include MODIS NPP product as a reference for the period 2001-2013. Our study will help to identify gaps in capturing yield response to ECEs with contemporary crop models, and provide a guide on developing the new generation of crop models to account for the effects of more future extreme climate events.

  20. Diatom response to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, W.C.; Sulik, G.L. )

    1992-06-01

    Reports that extremely low-frequency magnetic fields can interfere with normal biological cell function continue to stimulate experimental activity as well as investigations into the possible mechanism of the interaction. The cyclotron resonance' model of Liboff has been tested by Smith et al. using as the biological test system the diatom Amphora coffeiformis. They report enhanced motility of the diatom in response to a low-frequency electromagnetic field tuned to the cyclotron resonance condition for calcium ions. We report here an attempt to reproduce their results. Following their protocol diatoms were seeded onto agar plates containing varying amounts of calcium and exposed to colinear DC and AC magnetic fields tuned to the cyclotron resonant condition for frequencies of 16, 30, and 60 Hz. The fractional motility was compared with that of control plates seeded at the same time from the same culture. We find no evidence of a cyclotron resonance effect.

  1. Input estimation from measured structural response

    SciTech Connect

    Harvey, Dustin; Cross, Elizabeth; Silva, Ramon A; Farrar, Charles R; Bement, Matt

    2009-01-01

    This report will focus on the estimation of unmeasured dynamic inputs to a structure given a numerical model of the structure and measured response acquired at discrete locations. While the estimation of inputs has not received as much attention historically as state estimation, there are many applications where an improved understanding of the immeasurable input to a structure is vital (e.g. validating temporally varying and spatially-varying load models for large structures such as buildings and ships). In this paper, the introduction contains a brief summary of previous input estimation studies. Next, an adjoint-based optimization method is used to estimate dynamic inputs to two experimental structures. The technique is evaluated in simulation and with experimental data both on a cantilever beam and on a three-story frame structure. The performance and limitations of the adjoint-based input estimation technique are discussed.

  2. Flood Frequency Estimates and Documented and Potential Extreme Peak Discharges in Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

    2001-01-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the

  3. Estimating Single-Trial Responses in EEG

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. S.; Knuth, K. H.; Truccolo, W. A.; Mehta, A. D.; Fu, K. G.; Johnston, T. A.; Ding, M.; Bressler, S. L.; Schroeder, C. E.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Accurate characterization of single-trial field potential responses is critical from a number of perspectives. For example, it allows differentiation of an evoked response from ongoing EEG. We previously developed the multiple component Event Related Potential (mcERP) algorithm to improve resolution of the single-trial evoked response. The mcERP model states that multiple components, each specified by a stereotypic waveform varying in latency and amplitude from trial to trial, comprise the evoked response. Application of the mcERP algorithm to simulated data with three independent, synthetic components has shown that the model is capable of separating these components and estimating their variability. Application of the model to single trial, visual evoked potentials recorded simultaneously from all V1 laminae in an awake, fixating macaque yielded local and far-field components. Certain local components estimated by the model were distributed in both granular and supragranular laminae. This suggests a linear coupling between the responses of thalamo-recipient neuronal ensembles and subsequent responses of supragranular neuronal ensembles, as predicted by the feedforward anatomy of V1. Our results indicate that the mcERP algorithm provides a valid estimation of single-trial responses. This will enable analyses that depend on trial-to-trial variations and those that require separation of the evoked response from background EEG rhythms

  4. Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brakenridge, G. Robert

    1997-01-01

    . Karen Prestegaard at the University of Maryland (geomorphological responses to the extreme 1993 flood along the Raccoon drainage in central Iowa), and with Mr Tim Scrom of the Albany National Weather Service River Forecast Center (initial planning for the use of Radarsat and ERS-2 for flood warning). The work thus initiated with this proposal is continuing.

  5. Statistical downscaling with generalized Pareto distribution (Study case: Extreme rainfall estimation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinanti, Shynde Limar; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

    2016-02-01

    Indonesia has tropical climate with small variation of temperature but quite large variation of rainfall. So the rainfall which is an essential climate element related to climate change has to be observed. Climate change may increase the incidence of extreme rainfall that affects flooding in farmland. In order to anticipate the occurrence of extreme rainfall, the information of rainfall forecast is required. Statistical Downscaling (SD) is a technique to model the relationship between global scale data and local scale data. Global Circulation Model (GCM) output is global scale data and rainfall is local scale data. GCM has characteristic non-linear, high dimension, and multicolinierity. These problem can be overcome by principal component analysis (PCA). One of the primary methods for estimating extreme rainfall is generalize Pareto distribution (GPD) regression based on a threshold. The objective of this study is SD modeling based on GPD to predict extreme rainfall. The result show that GPD models can predict extreme rainfall well. Monthly rainfall prediction in January and December show a higher value than the actual data, but predictions follow actual data pettern well, especially during extreme rainfall. February has the highest rainfall that occurred in 2008 with a value of 439 mm/month. This value can be estimated either by prediction on quantile 0.95.

  6. Placing Bounds on Extreme Temperature Response of Maize to Improve Crop Model Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, C.; Babcock, B.; Peng, Y.; Gassman, P. W.; Campbell, T.

    2015-12-01

    We propose the development of community-based estimates for bounds on maize sensitivity to extreme temperature. We use model-based, observation-driven soil moisture climatology in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on high temperature sensitivity through its dependence on available water. For the portion of the region with relatively long growing season, yield reduction per degree-C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per degree-C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. High temperature sensitivity is indeterminate where extreme temperature yield effect does not yet exceed excessive water yield effect. We suggest new soil moisture climatology from reanalysis datasets could be used to develop community-based estimates of high temperature sensitivity that would significantly improve the accuracy of maize temperature sensitivity bounds, their regional variability, and their importance relative to other weather yield shocks. A community-based estimate would substantially improve evaluation of crop system simulation models and provide baseline information for evaluation of adaptation options. For instance, since process models are needed for evaluation of crop system adaptation response under climate projections, a community-developed estimate would provide a clear target for process model evaluation. Furthermore, the range of extreme temperature sensitivity from empirical models would provide a lower bound on variability that could be achieved from process models. If the process models achieved this bound, it would mean the uncertainty among their simulations would be primarily from observational limitations than differences in model response. While we demonstrate the potential in the context of maize, the concept could be implemented within any crop production system.

  7. Placing bounds on extreme temperature response of maize

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Peng, Yixing; Gassman, Philip W.; Campbell, Todd D.

    2015-12-01

    Plant water availability is a key factor that determines maize yield response to excess heat. Lack of available data has limited researchers’ ability to estimate this relationship at regional and global scales. Using a new soil moisture data set developed by running a crop growth simulator over historical data we demonstrate how current estimates of maize yield sensitivity to high temperature are misleading. We develop an empirical model relating observed yields to climate variables and soil moisture in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on yield sensitivity to high temperatures. For the portion of the region with a relatively long growing season, yield reduction per °C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per °C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. These results indicate the importance of using both water availability and temperature to model crop yield response to explain future climate change on crop yields.

  8. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  9. Radiation response mechanisms of the extremely radioresistant bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yasuhiko; Narumi, Issay; Satoh, Katsuya; Funayama, Tomoo; Kikuchi, Masahiro; Kitayama, Shigeru; Watanabe, Hiroshi

    2004-11-01

    Effect of microgravity on recovery of bacterial cells from radiation damage was examined in IML-2, S/MM-4 and S/MM-9 experiments using the extremely radioresistant bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans. The cells were irradiated with gamma rays before the space flight and incubated on board the Space Shuttle. The survival of the wild type cells incubated in space increased compared with the ground controls, suggesting that the recovery of this bacterium from radiation damage was enhanced under the space environment. No difference was observed between the survivals of radiosensitive mutant rec30 cells incubated in space and on the ground. The amount of DNA-repair related RecA protein induced under microgravity was similar to those of ground controls, however, induction of PprA protein, product of a unique radiation-inducible gene (designated pprA) responsible for loss of radiation resistance in repair-deficient mutant, KH311, was enhanced under microgravity compared with ground controls. Recent investigation in vitro showed that PprA preferentially bound to double-stranded DNA carrying strand breaks, inhibited Escherichia coli exonuclease III activity, and stimulated the DNA end-joining reaction catalyzed by DNA ligases. These results suggest that D. radiodurans has a radiation-induced non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) repair mechanism in which PprA plays a critical role. PMID:15858357

  10. Response and Recovery of Streams From an Extreme Flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantack, K. M.; Renshaw, C. E.; Magilligan, F. J.; Dethier, E.

    2015-12-01

    In temperate regions, channels are expected to recover from intense floods in a matter of months to years, but quantitative empirical support for this idea remains limited. Moreover, existing literature fails to address the spatial variability of the recovery process. Using an emerging technology, we investigate the immediate response to and progressive recovery of channels in the Northeastern United States from an extreme flood. We seek to determine what factors, including the nature and extent of the immediate response of the channel to the flood and post-flood availability of sediment, contribute to the spatial variability of the rate of recovery. Taking advantage of the 2011 flooding from Tropical Storm Irene, for which pre- and post-flood aerial lidar exist, along with a third set of terrestrial lidar collected in 2015, we assess channel response and recovery with multi-temporal lidar comparison. This method, with kilometers of continuous data, allows for analysis beyond traditional cross-section and reach-scale studies. Results indicate that landscape-scale factors, such as valley morphology and gradients in unit stream power, are controls on channel response to the flood, producing spatially variable impacts. Along a 16.4-km section (drainage area = 82 km2) of the Deerfield River in Vermont, over 148,000 m3 or erosion occurred during the flood. The spatial variation of impacts was correlated (R2= 0.476) with the ratio of channel width to valley width. We expect the recovery process will similarly exhibit spatial variation in rate and magnitude, possibly being governed by gradients in unit stream power and sediment availability. We test the idea that channel widening during the flood reduces post-flood unit stream power, creating a pathway for deposition and recovery to pre-flood width. Flood-widened reaches downstream of point-sources of sediment, such as landslides, will recover more quickly than those without consistent sediment supply. Results of this

  11. Estimating return periods for daily precipitation extreme events over the Brazilian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eliane Barbosa; Lucio, Paulo Sérgio; Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

    2015-08-01

    This paper aims to model the occurrence of daily precipitation extreme events and to estimate the return period of these events through the extreme value theory (generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)). The GEV and GPD were applied in precipitation series of homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot and by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. The Q-Q plot suggests that the probability distributions of the studied series are appropriated, and these results were confirmed by the KS test, which demonstrates that the tested distributions have a good fit in all sub-regions of Amazon, thus adequate to study the daily precipitation extreme event. For all return levels studied, more intense precipitation extremes is expected to occur within the South sub-regions and the coastal area of the Brazilian Amazon. The results possibly will have some practical application in local extreme weather forecast.

  12. Development of a censored modelling approach for stochastic estimation of rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Bernardara, Pietro

    2016-04-01

    With the COP21 drawing to a close in December 2015, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank which swept across the UK and Ireland causing widespread flooding and devastation have acted as a timely reminder of the need for reliable estimation of rainfall extremes in a changing climate. The frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes are predicted to increase in the UK under anthropogenic climate change, and it is notable that the UK's 24 hour rainfall record of 316mm set in Seathwaite, Cumbria in 2009 was broken on the 5 December 2015 with 341mm by storm Desmond at Honister Pass also in Cumbria. Immediate analysis of the latter by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) on the 8 December 2015 estimated that this is approximately equivalent to a 1300 year return period event (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2015). Rainfall extremes are typically estimated using extreme value analysis and intensity duration frequency curves. This study investigates the potential for using stochastic rainfall simulation with mechanistic rectangular pulse models for estimation of extreme rainfall. These models have been used since the late 1980s to generate synthetic rainfall time-series at point locations for scenario analysis in hydrological studies and climate impact assessment at the catchment scale. Routinely they are calibrated to the full historical hyetograph and used for continuous simulation. However, their extremal performance is variable with a tendency to underestimate short duration (hourly and sub-hourly) rainfall extremes which are often associated with heavy convective rainfall in temporal climates such as the UK. Focussing on hourly and sub-hourly rainfall, a censored modelling approach is proposed in which rainfall below a low threshold is set to zero prior to model calibration. It is hypothesised that synthetic rainfall time-series are poor at estimating extremes because the majority of the training data are not representative of the climatic conditions which give rise to

  13. Robust estimate of dynamo thresholds in the von Kármán sodium experiment using the extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faranda, Davide; Bourgoin, Mickaël; Miralles, Sophie; Odier, Philippe; Pinton, Jean-François; Plihon, Nicolas; Daviaud, Francois; Dubrulle, Bérengère

    2014-08-01

    We apply a new threshold detection method based on the extreme value theory (EVT) to the von Kármán sodium (VKS) experiment data. The VKS experiment is a successful attempt to get a dynamo magnetic field in a laboratory liquid-metal experiment. We first show that the dynamo threshold is associated with a change of the probability density function of the extreme values of the magnetic field. This method does not require the measurement of response functions from applied external perturbations and thus provides a simple threshold estimate. We apply our method to different configurations in the VKS experiment, showing that it yields a robust indication of the dynamo threshold as well as evidence of hysteretic behaviors. Moreover, for the experimental configurations in which a dynamo transition is not observed, the method provides a way to extrapolate an interval of possible threshold values.

  14. Progressive and biphasic cardiac responses during extreme mountain ultramarathon.

    PubMed

    Maufrais, Claire; Millet, Grégoire P; Schuster, Iris; Rupp, Thomas; Nottin, Stéphane

    2016-05-15

    Investigations on the cardiac function consequences of mountain ultramarathon (MUM) >100 h are lacking. The present study assessed the progressive cardiac responses during the world's most challenging MUM (Tor des Géants; Italy; 330 km; 24,000 m of cumulative elevation gain). Resting echocardiographic evaluation of morphology, function, and mechanics of left and right ventricle (LV and RV) including speckle tracking echocardiography was conducted in 15 male participants (46 ± 13 yr) before (pre), during (mid; 148 km), and after (post) the race. Runners completed the race in 126 ± 15 h. From pre to post, the increase in stroke volume (SV) (103 ± 19 vs. 110 ± 23 vs. 116 ± 21 ml; P < 0.001 at pre, mid, and post) was concomitant to the increase in LV early filling (peak E; 72.9 ± 15.7 vs. 74.6 ± 13.1 vs. 82.1 ± 11.5 cm/s; P < 0.05). Left and right atrial end-diastolic areas, RV end-diastolic area, and LV end-diastolic volume were 12-19% higher at post compared with pre (P < 0.05). Resting heart rate and LV systolic strain rates demonstrated a biphasic adaptation with an increase from pre to mid (55 ± 8 vs. 72 ± 11 beats/min, P < 0.001) and a return to baseline values from mid to post (59 ± 8 beats/min). Significant correlations were found between pre-to-post percent changes in peak E and LV end-diastolic volume (r = 0.63, P < 0.05) or RV (r = 0.82, P < 0.001) or atrial end-diastolic areas (r = 0.83, P < 0.001). An extreme MUM induced a biphasic pattern of heart rate in parallel with specific cardiac responses characterized by a progressive increase in diastolic filling, biventricular volumes, and SV. The underlying mechanisms and their clinical implications remain challenging for the future. PMID:26921434

  15. Estimating the impact of extreme climatic events on riverine sediment transport: new tools and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajeunesse, E.; Delacourt, C.; Allemand, P.; Limare, A.; Dessert, C.; Ammann, J.; Grandjean, P.

    2010-12-01

    A series of recent works have underlined that the flux of material exported outside of a watershed is dramatically increased during extreme climatic events, such as storms, tropical cyclones and hurricanes [Dadson et al., 2003 and 2004; Hilton et al., 2008]. Indeed the exceptionally high rainfall rates reached during these events trigger runoff and landsliding which destabilize slopes and accumulate a significant amount of sediments in flooded rivers. This observation raises the question of the control that extreme climatic events might exert on the denudation rate and the morphology of watersheds. Addressing this questions requires to measure sediment transport in flooded rivers. However most conventional sediment monitoring technics rely on manned operated measurements which cannot be performed during extreme climatic events. Monitoring riverine sediment transport during extreme climatic events remains therefore a challenging issue because of the lack of instruments and methodologies adapted to such extreme conditions. In this paper, we present a new methodology aimed at estimating the impact of extreme events on sediment transport in rivers. Our approach relies on the development of two instruments. The first one is an in-situ optical instrument, based on a LISST-25X sensor, capable of measuring both the water level and the concentration of suspended matter in rivers with a time step going from one measurement every hour at low flow to one measurement every 2 minutes during a flood. The second instrument is a remote controlled drone helicopter used to acquire high resolution stereophotogrammetric images of river beds used to compute DEMs and to estimate how flash floods impact the granulometry and the morphology of the river. These two instruments were developed and tested during a 1.5 years field survey performed from june 2007 to january 2009 on the Capesterre river located on Basse-Terre island (Guadeloupe archipelago, Lesser Antilles Arc).

  16. A new hydrological model for estimating extreme floods in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Receanu, R. G.; Hertig, J.-A.; Fallot, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Protection against flooding is very important for a country like Switzerland with a varied topography and many rivers and lakes. Because of the potential danger caused by extreme precipitation, structural and functional safety of large dams must be guaranteed to withstand the passage of an extreme flood. We introduce a new distributed hydrological model to calculate the PMF from a PMP which is spatially and temporally distributed using clouds. This model has permitted the estimation of extreme floods based on the distributed PMP and the taking into account of the specifics of alpine catchments, in particular the small size of the basins, the complex topography, the large lakes, snowmelt and glaciers. This is an important evolution compared to other models described in the literature, as they mainly use a uniform distribution of extreme precipitation all over the watershed. This paper presents the results of calculation with the developed rainfall-runoff model, taking into account measured rainfall and comparing results to observed flood events. This model includes three parts: surface runoff, underground flow and melting snow. Two Swiss watersheds are studied, for which rainfall data and flow rates are available for a considerably long period, including several episodes of heavy rainfall with high flow events. From these events, several simulations are performed to estimate the input model parameters such as soil roughness and average width of rivers in case of surface runoff. Following the same procedure, the parameters used in the underground flow simulation are also estimated indirectly, since direct underground flow and exfiltration measurements are difficult to obtain. A sensitivity analysis of the parameters is performed at the first step to define more precisely the boundary and initial conditions. The results for the two alpine basins, validated with the Nash equation, show a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation

  17. The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood

  18. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  19. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  20. On the possibilities of watershed parameterization for extreme flow estimation in ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohnová, S.; Karabová, B.; Hlavčová, K.

    2015-06-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Design flood estimates require a consideration of the hydrological, meteorological and physiographical situation, the legal requirements, and the available estimation techniques and methods. In the last decades changes in floods have been observed (Hall et al., 2014) which makes design flood estimation particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. A significant problem may arise in small catchments that are poorly gauged or when no recorded data exist. To obtain the design values in such cases, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites, including those in Slovakia. Since the method was derived on the basis of the specific characteristics of selected river basins in the United States, it may lead to significant uncertainties in other countries with different hydrological conditions. The aim of this study was to test the SCN-CN method and derive regional runoff curve numbers based on rainfall and discharge measurements for selected region in Slovakia. The results show that the classical CN method gives too high estimates of event runoff depths and is not valid in the study area. To avoid the overestimation of runoff caused by extreme rainfall events, the use of the empirically derived regional runoff curves was tested and finally proposed for practical application in engineering hydrology.

  1. In-flight estimation of gyro noise on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, M.; Crouse, P.; Harman, R.; Leid, Terry; Davis, W.; Underwood, S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper characterizes the low-frequency noise response of the Teledyne dry rotor inertial reference unit (DRIRU) gyroscopes on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The accuracy of spacecraft attitude estimation algorithms that use gyro data for propagating the spacecraft attitude is sensitive to gyro noise. EUVE gyro data were processed to validate a single-axis gyro noise model, which is used onboard various spacecraft. The paper addresses the potential impact of temperature effects on the gyro noise model and the overall impact on attitude determination accuracy. The power spectral density (PSD) of the gyro noise is estimated from UARS in-flight data by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The role of actuator dynamics on the PSD function is also discussed.

  2. Comparison of different techniques for streamflow-related extremes estimation in ungauged catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Giuseppe; Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina

    2013-04-01

    High and low flows and associated floods and droughts are natural phenomena caused by opposite meteorological extremes, affected by various, but similar catchment processes. Knowledge of peak flow and low flow discharges is fundamental in all water-related studies and infrastructures design. They are estimated starting from measurements of river discharges at stream gauging stations. The lack of observations at the site of interest as well as the inaccuracy of the measurements, however, bring inevitably to the necessity of developing predictive models. Regional analysis is the classical approach to estimate river flow characteristics at sites where little or no data exists. Once the homogeneous regions are defined, specific interpolation techniques are needed to regionalize the hydrological variables. Particularly, two different techniques are chosen here for estimating streamflow-related variables: the top-kriging and the multivariate analysis. Top-kriging is chosen because it is directly connected to the hydrographic network structure and geometric organization, while the Multivariate analysis, based on natural logarithms of seven geomorphoclimatic characteristics, is able to take into account the catchment properties. These methods are applied over the geographical space of Tuscany Region, in Central Italy. The results are validated using a cross-validation procedure, and are compared even with classical interpolation approaches (e.g. the ordinary kriging). With the aim to define the most suitable procedure for streamflow extremes estimation, the results are compared through different error measurement methods (mean square error, mean relative error, etc.).

  3. Asian monsoon extremes and humanity's response over the past millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckley, B. M.; Lieberman, V. B.; Zottoli, B.

    2012-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century has seen significant development in the production of paleo proxies for the Asian monsoon, exemplified by the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas that was comprised of more than 300 tree ring chronologies. Noteworthy among them is the Vietnamese cypress tree-ring record which reveals that the two worst droughts of the past 7 centuries, each more than a decade in length, coincided with the demise of the Khmer civilization at Angkor in the early 15th century CE. The 18th century was nearly as tumultuous a period across Southeast Asia, where several polities fell against a backdrop of epic decadal-scale droughts. At this time all of the region's charter states saw rapid realignment in the face of drought, famine, disease and a raft of related and unrelated social issues. Several other droughts, some more extreme but of lesser duration, punctuate the past millennium, but appear to have had little societal impact. Historical documentation is being used not only to provide corroborative evidence of tree-ring reconstructed climate extremes, but to attempt to understand the dynamics of the coupled human-natural systems involved, and to define what kinds of thresholds need to be reached before societies respond. This paleo perspective can assist our analyses of the role of climate extremes in the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate across the highly populated areas of Asia.

  4. Estimation of extreme daily precipitation: comparison between regional and geostatistical approaches.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellies, Matteo; Deidda, Roberto; Langousis, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    We study the extreme rainfall regime of the Island of Sardinia in Italy, based on annual maxima of daily precipitation. The statistical analysis is conducted using 229 daily rainfall records with at least 50 complete years of observations, collected at different sites by the Hydrological Survey of the Sardinia Region. Preliminary analysis, and the L-skewness and L-kurtosis diagrams, show that the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model performs best in describing daily rainfall extremes. The GEV distribution parameters are estimated using the method of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). To obtain extreme rainfall estimates at ungauged sites, while minimizing uncertainties due to sampling variability, a regional and a geostatistical approach are compared. The regional approach merges information from different gauged sites, within homogeneous regions, to obtain GEV parameter estimates at ungauged locations. The geostatistical approach infers the parameters of the GEV distribution model at locations where measurements are available, and then spatially interpolates them over the study region. In both approaches we use local rainfall means as index-rainfall. In the regional approach we define homogeneous regions by applying a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward's method, with L-moment ratios (i.e. L-CV and L-Skewness) as metrics. The analysis results in four contiguous regions, which satisfy the Hosking and Wallis (1997) homogeneity tests. The latter have been conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach based on a 4-parameter Kappa distribution model, fitted to each station cluster. Note that the 4-parameter Kappa model includes the GEV distribution as a sub-case, when the fourth parameter h is set to 0. In the geostatistical approach we apply kriging for uncertain data (KUD), which accounts for the error variance in local parameter estimation and, therefore, may serve as a useful tool for spatial interpolation of metrics affected by high uncertainty. In

  5. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  6. Sensitivity analysis of SCHADEX extreme flood estimations to observed hydro-meteorological variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigode, Pierre; Paquet, Emmanuel; Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joël; Garavaglia, Federico; Ribstein, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    Extreme floods estimation methods are developed since many years within the hydrological and statistical communities. More recently, approaches based on the statistical analysis of flood streamflow samples simulated by rainfall-runoff models which are forced by simulated rainfall spread in the scientific literature. These approaches, called stochastic simulation methods, are typically composed by a probabilistic rainfall model and a rainfall-runoff model. Each of these two models are usually calibrated over observed hydrometeorological series such as daily precipitation series for the probabilistic rainfall models or such as daily streamflow, precipitation and temperature series for the rainfall-runoff models. Since extreme flood observations are by definition particularly rare, the validation of the proposed extreme flood estimations is one of the main critical issues, whatever the method - statistical or physically-based - used. Moreover, the observed hydrometeorological series used for the calibration of the stochastic simulation methods may be subject to significant variability over time, due to global climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillations for example. If the estimation of total involved uncertainty is a difficult task, investigating to what extent the proposed extreme flood values are dependent on the calibration period is an interesting first step. The general aim of this study is to propose a methodology for performing a sensitivity analysis of extreme flood estimations to the variability of observed series used for the model calibrations in a stochastic simulation framework. The methodology proposed is based on the nonparametric bootstrap concept and consists to perform a set of block-bootstrap experiments, thus generating different sets of observed series sub-samples. The generated observed series sub-samples are then used for the calibration of the different models considered within the stochastic simulation method. The main

  7. Calibration period dependence of extreme flood estimations (with a model-based flood frequency method)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigode, P.; Bernardara, P.; Paquet, E.; Gailhard, J.; Garavaglia, F.; Ribstein, P.; Micovic, Z.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme floods estimation methods are developed since many years within the hydrological and statistical communities. More recently, approaches based on the statistical analysis of flood streamflow samples simulated by rainfall-runoff models which are forced by simulated rainfall spread in the scientific literature. These approaches, called stochastic simulation methods, are typically composed by a probabilistic rainfall model and a rainfall-runoff model. Each of these two models are calibrated over observed hydrometeorological series such as daily precipitation series for the probabilistic rainfall models or such as daily streamflow, precipitation and temperature series for the rainfall-runoff models. Since extreme flood observations are by definition particularly rare, the validation of the proposed extreme flood estimations is one of the main critical issues, whatever the method - statistical or physically-based - used. Moreover, the observed hydrometeorological series used for the calibration of the stochastic simulation methods may be subject to significant variability over time, due to global climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillations for example. If the estimation of total involved uncertainty is a difficult task, investigating to what extent the proposed extreme flood values are dependent on the calibration period is an interesting first step. The general aim of this study is to propose a methodology for performing a sensitivity analysis of extreme flood estimations to the variability of observed series used for the model calibrations in a stochastic simulation framework. The methodology proposed is based on the nonparametric bootstrap concept and consists to perform a set of block-bootstrap experiments, thus generating different sets of observed series sub-samples. The generated observed series sub-samples are then used for the calibration of the different models considered within the stochastic simulation method. The main originality of

  8. A comparison of acromion marker cluster calibration methods for estimating scapular kinematics during upper extremity ergometry.

    PubMed

    Richardson, R Tyler; Nicholson, Kristen F; Rapp, Elizabeth A; Johnston, Therese E; Richards, James G

    2016-05-01

    Accurate measurement of joint kinematics is required to understand the musculoskeletal effects of a therapeutic intervention such as upper extremity (UE) ergometry. Traditional surface-based motion capture is effective for quantifying humerothoracic motion, but scapular kinematics are challenging to obtain. Methods for estimating scapular kinematics include the widely-reported acromion marker cluster (AMC) which utilizes a static calibration between the scapula and the AMC to estimate the orientation of the scapula during motion. Previous literature demonstrates that including additional calibration positions throughout the motion improves AMC accuracy for single plane motions; however this approach has not been assessed for the non-planar shoulder complex motion occurring during UE ergometry. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of single, dual, and multiple AMC calibration methods during UE ergometry. The orientations of the UE segments of 13 healthy subjects were recorded with motion capture. Scapular landmarks were palpated at eight evenly-spaced static positions around the 360° cycle. The single AMC method utilized one static calibration position to estimate scapular kinematics for the entire cycle, while the dual and multiple AMC methods used two and four static calibration positions, respectively. Scapulothoracic angles estimated by the three AMC methods were compared with scapulothoracic angles determined by palpation. The multiple AMC method produced the smallest RMS errors and was not significantly different from palpation about any axis. We recommend the multiple AMC method as a practical and accurate way to estimate scapular kinematics during UE ergometry. PMID:26976228

  9. Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter A.; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2015-09-01

    Regional warming due to anthropogenic influence on the climate is expected to increase the frequency of very warm years and seasons. The growing research area of extreme event attribution has provided pertinent scientific evidence for a number of such warm events for which the forced climate response rises above internal climatic variability. Although the demand for attribution assessments is higher shortly after an event occurs, most scientific studies become available several months later. A formal attribution methodology is employed here to pre-compute the changing odds of very warm years and seasons in regions across the world. Events are defined based on the exceedence of temperature thresholds and their changing odds are measured over a range of pre-specified thresholds, which means assessments can be made as soon as a new event happens. Optimal fingerprinting provides observationally constrained estimates of the global temperature response to external forcings from which regional information is extracted. This information is combined with estimates of internal variability to construct temperature distributions with and without the effect of anthropogenic influence. The likelihood of an event is computed for each distribution and the change in the odds estimated. Analyses are conducted with seven climate models to explore the model dependency of the results. Apart from colder regions and seasons, characterised by greater internal climate variability, the odds of warm events are found to have significantly increased and temperatures above the threshold of 1-in-10 year events during 1961-1990 have become at least twice as likely to occur.

  10. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  11. Extreme ultraviolet response of a Tektronix 1024 x 1024 CCD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moses, Daniel J.; Hochedez, Jean-Francois E.; Howard, Russell A.; Au, Benjamin D.; Wang, Dennis; Blouke, Morley

    1992-08-01

    The goal of the detector development program for the Solar and Heliospheric Spacecraft (SOHO) EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) is an Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) CCD (Charge Coupled Device) camera. The Naval Research Lab (NRL) SOHO COD Group has developed a design for the EIT camera and is screening CCDs for flight application. Tektronix Inc. have fabricated 1024x1024 CCDs for the EIT program. As a part of the CCD screening effort the quantum efficiency (QE) of a prototype CCD has been measured in the NRL EUV laboratory over the wavelength range of 256 to 735 Angstroms. A simplified model has been applied to these QE measurements to illustrate the relevant physical processes that determine the performance of the detector.

  12. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  13. Application of extreme learning machine for estimation of wind speed distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Mohammadi, Kasra; Tong, Chong Wen; Petković, Dalibor; Porcu, Emilio; Mostafaeipour, Ali; Ch, Sudheer; Sedaghat, Ahmad

    2016-03-01

    The knowledge of the probabilistic wind speed distribution is of particular significance in reliable evaluation of the wind energy potential and effective adoption of site specific wind turbines. Among all proposed probability density functions, the two-parameter Weibull function has been extensively endorsed and utilized to model wind speeds and express wind speed distribution in various locations. In this research work, extreme learning machine (ELM) is employed to compute the shape ( k) and scale ( c) factors of Weibull distribution function. The developed ELM model is trained and tested based upon two widely successful methods used to estimate k and c parameters. The efficiency and accuracy of ELM is compared against support vector machine, artificial neural network and genetic programming for estimating the same Weibull parameters. The survey results reveal that applying ELM approach is eventuated in attaining further precision for estimation of both Weibull parameters compared to other methods evaluated. Mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute bias error and root mean square error for k are 8.4600 %, 0.1783 and 0.2371, while for c are 0.2143 %, 0.0118 and 0.0192 m/s, respectively. In conclusion, it is conclusively found that application of ELM is particularly promising as an alternative method to estimate Weibull k and c factors.

  14. Sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to rainfall-runoff modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Garçon, R.

    2012-04-01

    EDF (Électricité de France) design floods of dam spillways are now computed using a probabilistic method named SCHADEX (Climatic-hydrological simulation of extreme foods (Paquet et al., 2006, Garavaglia et al., 2009, 2010). This method aims at estimating extreme flood quantiles by the combination of a weather pattern based rainfall probabilistic model and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Extreme floods quantiles are estimated through a runoff generation process that combines a stochastic generation of rainfall events and a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation. The aim of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to the rainfall-runoff model (structure, parameters) used in the simulation framework. To explore this topic we have used two rainfall-runoff models (i.e. MORDOR model (Garçon et al., 1996) and GR4J model (Andreassian et al., 2006)) with four different objective functions (based on Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiencies) and a classical split-sample scheme. This testing strategy has been applied to calibrate models on a set of 30 French watersheds at different time-steps (mainly daily and 4 to 12 hours). When calibrated, models were used within the SCHADEX method and flood quantiles were evaluated at different return levels in interpolation and extrapolation (10, 100, 1000 years return-period). The main result of this comparative study is that extreme flood quantile estimations are more sensitive to (i) the objective function used and (ii) the time series length and period used for model calibration then (iii) the rainfall-runoff structure. Within this comparative study, the mean variability on a 1000 years return-period is up to 20%. Another interesting result is that, for a same objective function and time series period, the influence of the rainfall-runoff model is relatively moderated in extrapolation domain because the two rainfall-runoff models converged towards their asymptotic behaviours, but

  15. Extreme Thermal Noxious Stimuli Induce Pain Responses in Zebrafish Larvae

    PubMed Central

    Malafoglia, Valentina; Colasanti, Marco; Raffaeli, William; Balciunas, Darius; Giordano, Antonio; Bellipanni, Gianfranco

    2014-01-01

    Exposing tissues to extreme high or low temperature leads to burns. Burned animals sustain several types of damage, from the disruption of the tissue to degeneration of axons projecting through muscle and skin. Such damage causes pain due to both inflammation and axonal degeneration (neuropathic-like pain). Thus, the approach to cure and alleviate the symptoms of burns must be twofold: rebuilding the tissue that has been destroyed and alleviating the pain derived from the burns. While tissue regeneration techniques have been developed, less is known on the treatment of the induced pain. Thus, appropriate animal models are necessary for the development of the best treatment for pain induced in burned tissues. We have developed a methodology in the zebrafish aimed to produce a new animal model for the study of pain induced by burns. Here we show that two events linked to the onset of burn-induced inflammation and neuropathic-like pain in mammals, degeneration of axons innervating the affected tissues and over-expression of specific genes in sensory tissues, are conserved from zebrafish to mammals. PMID:23929528

  16. Extreme thermal noxious stimuli induce pain responses in zebrafish larvae.

    PubMed

    Malafoglia, Valentina; Colasanti, Marco; Raffaeli, William; Balciunas, Darius; Giordano, Antonio; Bellipanni, Gianfranco

    2014-03-01

    Exposing tissues to extreme high or low temperature leads to burns. Burned animals sustain several types of damage, from the disruption of the tissue to degeneration of axons projecting through muscle and skin. Such damage causes pain due to both inflammation and axonal degeneration (neuropathic-like pain). Thus, the approach to cure and alleviate the symptoms of burns must be twofold: rebuilding the tissue that has been destroyed and alleviating the pain derived from the burns. While tissue regeneration techniques have been developed, less is known on the treatment of the induced pain. Thus, appropriate animal models are necessary for the development of the best treatment for pain induced in burned tissues. We have developed a methodology in the zebrafish aimed to produce a new animal model for the study of pain induced by burns. Here, we show that two events linked to the onset of burn-induced inflammation and neuropathic-like pain in mammals, degeneration of axons innervating the affected tissues and over-expression of specific genes in sensory tissues, are conserved from zebrafish to mammals. PMID:23929528

  17. Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. PMID:26009315

  18. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  19. Estimates for production of radioisotopes of medical interest at Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Wen; Bobeica, Mariana; Gheorghe, Ioana; Filipescu, Dan M.; Niculae, Dana; Balabanski, Dimiter L.

    2016-01-01

    We report Monte Carlo simulations of the production of radioisotopes of medical interest through photoneutron reactions using the high-brilliance γ-beam of the Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics (ELI-NP) facility. The specific activity for three benchmark radioisotopes, 99Mo/99Tc, 225Ra/225Ac and 186Re, was obtained as a function of target geometry, irradiation time and γ-beam energy. Optimized conditions for the generation of these radioisotopes of medical interest with the ELI-NP γ-beams were discussed. We estimated that a saturation specific activity of the order of 1-2 mCi/g can be achieved for thin targets with about one gram of mass considering a γ-beam flux of 10^{11} photons/s. Based on these results, we suggest that the ELI-NP facility can provide a unique possibility for the production of radioisotopes in sufficient quantities for nuclear medicine research.

  20. Spall Response of Tantalum at Extreme Strain-Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahn, Eric; Germann, Tim; Meyers, Marc

    Strain-rate and microstructure play a significant role in the ultimate mechanical response of materials. Using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we characterize the ductile tensile failure of single and nanocrystalline tantalum over multiple orders of magnitude of strain-rate. This comparison is extended to over nine orders of magnitude including experimental results from resent laser shock campaigns. Spall strength primarily follows a power law dependence with strain-rate over this extensive range. In all cases, voids nucleate heterogeneously at pre-existing defects. Predictions based on traditional theory suggest that, as strain-rate increases, tensile strength should increase. Alternatively, as grain size decreases, tensile strength may decrease due to an increased propensity to fail at a growing volume fraction of grain boundaries. Strain-rate and grain size dictate void nucleation sites by changing the type and density of available defects: vacancies, dislocations, twins, and grain boundaries.

  1. The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paquet, Emmanuel; Garavaglia, Federico; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joël

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents the SCHADEX probabilistic method for extreme flood estimation, developed and applied since 2006 at Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: a continuous hydrological simulation provides an exhaustive description of the possible hydrological states of the catchment, while floods are generated on an event basis. The method has been built around two models: the Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern (MEWP) distribution for rainfall probability estimation, and the MORDOR hydrological model. The simulation process allows the production of an estimated distribution of flood volumes at the study’s time step, as well as a distribution of flood peaks based on a peak-to-volume ratio computed from observed hydrographs of significant floods. A wide range of rainy events are simulated on each hydrological state, generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards. Consequently, SCHADEX stands clearly apart from the “N-years flood is generated by a N-years rainfall” paradigm, as a great diversity of hydrological scenarios can generate a flood of a given return period, with many variables taken into account. Since its development, SCHADEX has been widely applied in France for industrial studies, to catchments from several to several thousand square kilometres. This has allowed the testing and improvement of the method. In this paper, the basic concepts and hypothesis of the method are given in detail and illustrated throughout with the example of the River Tarn at Millau (2170 km2, South of France). The different steps of the method are successively exposed, up to the estimated distribution of flood daily discharges and flood peaks and their comparison with observed values. Lastly, some methodological perspectives to enhance the method are presented.

  2. Top-kriging interpolation for extremes discharge estimation in ungauged rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caporali, E.; Rossi, G.; Chiarello, V.

    2013-12-01

    Knowledge of peak flow and low flow discharges and associated floods and droughts is fundamental in hydrology and related sciences. Streamflow characteristics are usually estimated starting from measurements of river discharges at stream gauging stations. The problem of estimating streamflow-related variables at locations where no measurements are available is essential in environmental and water engineering practices. Regional analysis is a classical approach to estimate river flow characteristics at sites where little or no data exists. Specific techniques are needed to regionalize the hydrological variables over the considered area. Top-kriging, or topological kriging, is a kriging interpolation procedure that takes into account the geometric organization and structure of hydrographic network, the catchment area and the nested nature of catchments. The continuous processes in space defined for the point variables are represented by a variogram. The channel network structure and the proximity between upstream and downstream catchments are represented by the drainage area as well as the relative positions of the neighbouring catchments. Top-kriging is applied here over the geographical space of Tuscany Region, in Central Italy. The obtained results are compared with classical interpolation techniques (IDW and Ordinary Kriging) and with a Multivariate analysis, based on natural logarithms of seven geomorphoclimatic characteristics. Multivariate statistical techniques such as principal components analysis (PCA) are implemented to reduce the high-dimensionality of catchments descriptors. The results are validated using a cross-validation method. With the aim to define the most suitable procedure for extremes discharge estimation in nested and not nested catchments, the results are compared through different error measurement methods.

  3. Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Erich; Sedlacek, Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Knutti, Reto

    2015-04-01

    Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over mid-latitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective. Reference: Fischer, E.M., J. Sedláček, E. Hawkins and R. Knutti, 2014: Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2014GL062018.

  4. A Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling approach to selection of estimation techniques for fitting extreme floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duckstein, L.; Bobée, B.; Ashkar, F.

    1991-09-01

    The problem of fitting a probability distribution, here log-Pearson Type III distribution, to extreme floods is considered from the point of view of two numerical and three non-numerical criteria. The six techniques of fitting considered include classical techniques (maximum likelihood, moments of logarithms of flows) and new methods such as mixed moments and the generalized method of moments developed by two of the co-authors. The latter method consists of fitting the distribution using moments of different order, in particular the SAM method (Sundry Averages Method) uses the moments of order 0 (geometric mean), 1 (arithmetic mean), -1 (harmonic mean) and leads to a smaller variance of the parameters. The criteria used to select the method of parameter estimation are: - the two statistical criteria of mean square error and bias; - the two computational criteria of program availability and ease of use; - the user-related criterion of acceptability. These criteria are transformed into value functions or fuzzy set membership functions and then three Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling (MCDM) techniques, namely, composite programming, ELECTRE, and MCQA, are applied to rank the estimation techniques.

  5. Individual estimation of exposures to extremely low frequency magnetic fields in jobs commonly held by women.

    PubMed

    Deadman, J E; Infante-Rivard, C

    2002-02-15

    Exposures to extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields have not been documented extensively in occupations besides the work environments of electric or telephone utilities. A 1980-1993 study of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in Québec, Canada, gathered detailed information about the occupations of 491 mothers of ALL cases and mothers of a similar number of healthy controls. This information was combined with published data on the intensities of ELF magnetic fields associated with sources or work environments to estimate ELF magnetic field exposures for a wide range of jobs commonly held by women. Estimated exposures for 61 job categories ranged from 0.03 to 0.68 microT; the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles were 0.135, 0.17, and 0.23 microT, respectively. By job category, the most highly exposed jobs (>0.23 microT) included bakery worker, cashier, cook and kitchen worker, electronics worker, residential and industrial sewing machine operator, and textile machine operator. By work environment, the most highly exposed job categories were electronics worker in an assembly plant (0.70 microT) and sewing machine operators in a textile factory (0.68 microT) and shoe factory (0.66 microT). These results provide new information on expected levels of exposure in a wide range of jobs commonly held by women. PMID:11836202

  6. Contrasting responses of terrestrial ecosystem production to hot temperature extreme regimes between grassland and forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Voigt, M.; Liu, H.

    2014-04-01

    Observational data during the past several decades show faster increase of hot temperature extremes over land than changes in mean temperature. Towards more extreme temperature is expected to affect terrestrial ecosystem function. However, the ecological impacts of hot extremes on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. In this study, we investigated the effects of hot temperature extremes on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) by combining MODIS EVI dataset and in situ climatic records during 2000 to 2009 from 12 long-term experimental sites across biomes and climates. Our results showed that higher mean annual maximum temperatures (Tmax) greatly reduced grassland production, and yet enhanced forest production after removing the effects of precipitation. Relative decreases in ANPP were 16% for arid grassland and 7% for mesic grassland, and the increase were 5% for forest. We also observed a significant positive relationship between interannual ANPP and Tmax for forest biome (R2 = 0.79, P < 0.001). This line of evidence suggests that hot temperature extreme leads to contrasting ecosystem-level response of vegetation production to warming climate between grassland and forest. Given that many terrestrial ecosystem models use average daily temperature as input, predictions of ecosystem production should consider these contrasting responses to more hot temperature extreme regimes associated with climate change.

  7. Contrasting responses of terrestrial ecosystem production to hot temperature extreme regimes between grassland and forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Voigt, M.; Liu, H.

    2015-01-01

    During the past several decades, observational data have shown a faster increase in hot temperature extremes than the change in mean temperature. Increasingly high extreme temperatures are expected to affect terrestrial ecosystem function. The ecological impact of hot extremes on vegetation production, however, remains uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. In this study, we investigated the effects of hot temperature extremes on vegetation production by combining the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data set and in situ climatic records during the period 2000 to 2009 from 12 long-term experimental sites across biomes and climate. Our results show that higher mean annual maximum temperatures (Tmax) greatly reduced grassland production, and yet enhanced forest production after removing the effect of precipitation. The relative decrease in vegetation production was 16% for arid grassland and 7% for mesic grassland, and the increase was 5% for forest. We also observed a significantly positive relationship between interannual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and Tmax for the forest biome (R2 = 0.79, P < 0.001). This line of evidence suggests that hot temperature extremes lead to contrasting ecosystem-level responses of vegetation production between grassland and forest biomes. Given that many terrestrial ecosystem models use average daily temperature as input, predictions of ecosystem production should consider such contrasting responses to increasingly hot temperature extreme regimes associated with climate change.

  8. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huttenlau, M.; Stötter, J.; Stiefelmeyer, H.

    2010-12-01

    Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and inventory

  9. Robust Estimation of Latent Ability in Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schuster, Christof; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2011-01-01

    Because of response disturbances such as guessing, cheating, or carelessness, item response models often can only approximate the "true" individual response probabilities. As a consequence, maximum-likelihood estimates of ability will be biased. Typically, the nature and extent to which response disturbances are present is unknown, and, therefore,…

  10. Emergency Response to and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events and Environmental Changes in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Li; Liao, Yongfeng; Yang, Linsheng; Li, Hairong; Ye, Bixiong; Wang, Wuyi

    2016-03-01

    China has achieved impressive rapid economic growth over the past 30 years but accompanied by significant extreme weather events and environmental changes caused by global change and overfast urbanization. Using the absolute hazards index (AHI), we assessed the spatial distribution patterns and related health effects of 4 major extreme natural disasters, including drought, floods (landslides, mudslides), hails, and typhoons from 2000 to 2011 at the provincial level in China. The results showed that (1) central and south China were the most affected by the 4 natural disasters, and north China suffered less; (2) the provinces with higher AHI suffered most from total death, missing people, collapse, and emergently relocated population; (3) the present health emergency response system to disasters in China mainly lacks a multidisciplinary approach. In the concluding section of this article, suggestions on preparedness and rapid response to extreme health events from environmental changes are proposed. PMID:25246501

  11. Estimations of the smoothing operator response characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yatskiv, Y. S.

    1974-01-01

    The mean response characteristic of the graphical smoothing method is discussed. The method is illustrated by analysis of latitude observations at Washington from 1915.9 to 1941.0. Spectral density, frequency distribution, and distribution functions are also discussed.

  12. Consistency of Response Patterns in Different Estimation Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Terry Tin-Yau; Ho, Connie Suk-Han; Tang, Joey

    2016-01-01

    The current study aimed at addressing two issues concerning children's estimation performance: (1) to investigate whether the log-to-linear framework or the proportional judgment framework provided a better explanation of children's estimation patterns, and (2) to examine the consistency of response patterns in different estimation tasks. A sample…

  13. Nonparametric Item Response Curve Estimation with Correction for Measurement Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Hongwen; Sinharay, Sandip

    2011-01-01

    Nonparametric or kernel regression estimation of item response curves (IRCs) is often used in item analysis in testing programs. These estimates are biased when the observed scores are used as the regressor because the observed scores are contaminated by measurement error. Accuracy of this estimation is a concern theoretically and operationally.…

  14. Cardiovascular Responses to Psychosocial Stress Reflect Motivation State in Adults Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight.

    PubMed

    Mathewson, Karen J; Pyhälä, Riikka; Hovi, Petteri; Räikkönen, Katri; Van Lieshout, Ryan J; Boyle, Michael H; Saigal, Saroj; Morrison, Katherine M; Kajantie, Eero; Schmidt, Louis A

    2015-01-01

    Background. Adults born extremely preterm appear to have more difficulty managing the stresses of early adulthood than their term-born peers. Objective. To examine the effects of being born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight < 1000 g) versus at full term on cardiovascular responses to stress. Method. Cardiovascular responses were elicited during administration of a widely used laboratory stressor, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Results. Term-born adults exhibited a larger decrease in total peripheral resistance and larger increase in cardiac output for TSST performance, reflecting greater resilience, than did ELBW adults. Furthermore, in ELBW participants but not controls, cardiovascular responses were correlated with anxiety, suggesting that their responses reflected feelings of stress. Conclusions. Skills-training and practice with relevant stressors may be necessary to increase the personal resources of ELBW participants for managing stress as they transition to adulthood. PMID:27335948

  15. Cardiovascular Responses to Psychosocial Stress Reflect Motivation State in Adults Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight

    PubMed Central

    Pyhälä, Riikka; Hovi, Petteri; Räikkönen, Katri; Van Lieshout, Ryan J.; Boyle, Michael H.; Saigal, Saroj; Morrison, Katherine M.; Kajantie, Eero; Schmidt, Louis A.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Adults born extremely preterm appear to have more difficulty managing the stresses of early adulthood than their term-born peers. Objective. To examine the effects of being born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight < 1000 g) versus at full term on cardiovascular responses to stress. Method. Cardiovascular responses were elicited during administration of a widely used laboratory stressor, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Results. Term-born adults exhibited a larger decrease in total peripheral resistance and larger increase in cardiac output for TSST performance, reflecting greater resilience, than did ELBW adults. Furthermore, in ELBW participants but not controls, cardiovascular responses were correlated with anxiety, suggesting that their responses reflected feelings of stress. Conclusions. Skills-training and practice with relevant stressors may be necessary to increase the personal resources of ELBW participants for managing stress as they transition to adulthood. PMID:27335948

  16. Profile reconstruction in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) scatterometry: modeling and uncertainty estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, H.; Rathsfeld, A.; Scholze, F.; Bär, M.

    2009-10-01

    Scatterometry as a non-imaging indirect optical method in wafer metrology is also relevant to lithography masks designed for extreme ultraviolet lithography, where light with wavelengths in the range of 13 nm is applied. The solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the determination of periodic surface structures regarding critical dimensions (CD) and other profile properties from light diffraction patterns, is incomplete without knowledge of the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed parameters. The numerical simulation of the diffraction process for periodic 2D structures can be realized by the finite element solution of the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. The inverse problem can be formulated as a nonlinear operator equation in Euclidean space. The operator maps the sought mask parameters to the efficiencies of diffracted plane wave modes. We employ a Gauß-Newton type iterative method to solve this operator equation and end up minimizing the deviation of the measured efficiency or phase shift values from the calculated ones. We apply our reconstruction algorithm for the measurement of a typical EUV mask composed of TaN absorber lines of about 80 nm height, a period in the range of 420 nm-840 nm, and with an underlying MoSi-multilayer stack of 300 nm thickness. Clearly, the uncertainties of the reconstructed geometric parameters essentially depend on the uncertainties of the input data and can be estimated by various methods. We apply a Monte Carlo procedure and an approximative covariance method to evaluate the reconstruction algorithm. Finally, we analyze the influence of uncertainties in the widths of the multilayer stack by the Monte Carlo method.

  17. Centile estimation for a proportion response variable.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Abu; Rigby, Robert; Stasinopoulos, Mikis; Enea, Marco

    2016-03-15

    This paper introduces two general models for computing centiles when the response variable Y can take values between 0 and 1, inclusive of 0 or 1. The models developed are more flexible alternatives to the beta inflated distribution. The first proposed model employs a flexible four parameter logit skew Student t (logitSST) distribution to model the response variable Y on the unit interval (0, 1), excluding 0 and 1. This model is then extended to the inflated logitSST distribution for Y on the unit interval, including 1. The second model developed in this paper is a generalised Tobit model for Y on the unit interval, including 1. Applying these two models to (1-Y) rather than Y enables modelling of Y on the unit interval including 0 rather than 1. An application of the new models to real data shows that they can provide superior fits. PMID:26434649

  18. AN OVERVIEW OF TOOL FOR RESPONSE ACTION COST ESTIMATING (TRACE)

    SciTech Connect

    FERRIES SR; KLINK KL; OSTAPKOWICZ B

    2012-01-30

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  19. Plant phenological responses to extreme events - A long term perspective from the Chihuahuan Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browning, D. M.; Peters, D. P.; Anderson, J.; Yao, J.

    2011-12-01

    Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern USA are especially sensitive to changes in temperature as well as drought frequency and intensity. Timing of periodic life cycle events (i.e., phenology) is an integrated and salient indicator of plant responses to climate change. We examine an 18-year dataset of monthly observations of plant phenology for two species of perennial grasses and a deciduous shrub (honey mesquite) distributed across three upland grassland sites and three mesquite-dominated sites on the Jornada Basin USDA-LTER in southern New Mexico, USA. Precipitation is highly variable between years and across space. Long-term phenology data collection spanned a multi-year drought (1994-2003) followed by a sequence of years with average to very high rainfall (2004 - 2008). Our objective was to compare and contrast responses to extreme dry and wet cycles in the timing and duration of first leaf and fruit production for two grasses (Bouteloua eriopoda [black grama], Sporobolus flexuosus [mesa dropseed]) with one co-existing shrub that has displaced grasses in this system (Prosopis glandulosa [honey mesquite]). Monthly field observations yield estimates of phenological status and abundance for 18 growing seasons from 1993 to 2010. All three species most commonly initiated new growth prior to onset of the monsoon rains (March or April). Timing of first growth for mesquite was less variable (standard deviation = 0.47) than for black grama (SD = 1.42) and mesa dropseed (SD = 1.22) grasses. Initial growth for grasses was delayed to September in 2006 following twelve months of deficit values for PDSI. The appearance of first fruit for grasses occurred consistently in August or September, although the number of plants producing fruit was highly variable from year to year. The largest numbers of fruit-bearing grasses were observed in late fall 2008 in response to heavy monsoon rains in 2006 and 2008. Mesquite demonstrated remarkable synchrony in the production of

  20. Statistical estimation of extreme ocean waves over the eastern Canadian shelf from 30-year numerical wave simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

    2015-11-01

    Reliable estimation of extreme ocean surface gravity waves is important for many scientific and practical issues. In this study, WAVEWATCHIII is used to simulate wave conditions over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS) for the 30-year period, 1979-2008. The wave model is forced by the 6-hourly winds and ice cover taken from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A parametric vortex is inserted into the CFSR winds to better represent surface winds associated with tropical storms or hurricanes. The model performance in simulating the bulk significant wave height is assessed by comparing model results with wave observations at 12 buoy stations over the ECS. The peaks-over-threshold method is used to estimate the extreme significant wave heights from 30-year wave simulations. The estimated extreme waves with the 50-year return period over the ECS feature large wave heights of more than 12 m in the offshore deep waters and about 8-12 m over the open shelf waters of the ECS. By comparison, the 50-year extreme waves are moderate and 7 m or less in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and inner Gulf of Maine.

  1. Prediction of Ship Response Statistics in Extreme Seas Using Model Tests Data and Numerical Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Bingjie; Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta Maria; Sun, Hui; Block Helmers, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Earlier investigations have indicated that proper prediction of nonlinear loads and responses due to nonlinear waves is important for ship safety in extreme seas. However, the nonlinear loads and responses in extreme seas have not been sufficiently investigated yet, particularly when rogue waves are considered. A question remains whether the existing linear codes can predict nonlinear loads and responses with a satisfactory accuracy and how large the deviations from linear predictions are. To indicate it response statistics have been studied based on the model tests carried out with a LNG tanker in the towing tank of the Technical University of Berlin (TUB), and compared with the statistics derived from numerical simulations using the DNV code WASIM. It is a potential code for wave-ship interaction based on 3D Panel method, which can perform both linear and nonlinear simulation. The numerical simulations with WASIM and the model tests in extreme and rogue waves have been performed. The analysis of ship motions (heave and pitch) and bending moments, in both regular and irregular waves, is performed. The results from the linear and nonlinear simulations are compared with experimental data to indicate the impact of wave non-linearity on loads and response calculations when the code based on the Rankine Panel Method is used. The study shows that nonlinearities may have significant effect on extreme motions and bending moment generated by strongly nonlinear waves. The effect of water depth on ship responses is also demonstrated using numerical simulations. Uncertainties related to the results are discussed, giving particular attention to sampling variability.

  2. Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response.

    PubMed

    Siri, José Gabriel; Newell, Barry; Proust, Katrina; Capon, Anthony

    2016-03-01

    Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events. PMID:26219559

  3. Prior exposure to extreme pain alters neural response to pain in others.

    PubMed

    Eidelman-Rothman, Moranne; Goldstein, Abraham; Weisman, Omri; Schneiderman, Inna; Zagoory-Sharon, Orna; Decety, Jean; Feldman, Ruth

    2016-08-01

    In the extant literature examining the brain mechanisms implicated in pain perception, researchers have theorized that the overlapping responses to pain in the self and in others mark the human capacity for empathy. Here we investigated how prior exposure to extreme pain affects pain perception, by assessing the dynamics of pain processing in veterans who were previously exposed to severe injury. Forty-three participants (28 pain-exposed and 15 controls) underwent whole-head magnetoencephalography (MEG) while viewing photographs of limbs in painful and nonpainful (neutral) conditions. Among controls, an early (0-220 ms) "pain effect" in the posterior cingulate and sensorimotor cortices, and a later (760-900 ms) "pain effect" in the posterior cingulate cortex, superior temporal gyrus/insula, and fusiform gyrus were found, indicated by enhanced alpha suppression to the pain versus nonpain conditions. Importantly, pain-exposed participants exhibited an atypical pain response in the posterior cingulate cortex, indicated by a normative response to pain, but no pain-to-no-pain differentiation. This may suggest that individuals exposed to extreme pain may perceive neutral stimuli as potentially threatening. Our findings demonstrate alterations in pain perception following extreme pain exposure, chart the sequence from automatic to evaluative pain processing, and emphasize the importance of considering past experiences in studying the neural response to others' states. PMID:27032959

  4. Contingenet Productivity Responses to More Extreme Rainfall Regimes Across a Grassland Biome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heisler-White, J. L.; Knapp, A.; Collins, S.; Blair, J.; Kelly, E.

    2008-12-01

    Climate models predict, and empirical evidence confirms, that more extreme precipitation regimes are occurring in tandem with warmer atmospheric temperatures. These more extreme rainfall patterns are characterized by increased event size separated by longer within season drought periods, and represent novel climatic conditions whose consequences for different ecosystem types are largely unknown. The focus of this talk will be the impacts of extreme rainfall events on soil water content and ecosystem function, and we will present results from experimental manipulations of rainfall in four native grassland sites within the Great Plains Region of North America (USA). Along this precipitation-productivity gradient, our results suggest strong sensitivity to more extreme growing season rainfall regimes, with responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) contingent on mean soil water levels for different grassland types. At the mesic end of the gradient (tallgrass prairie), longer dry intervals between events led to extended periods of below-average soil water content, increased plant water stress and a reduction in ANPP. The opposite response occurred at the dry end (semi-arid grasslands), where a shift to fewer, but larger, events increased periods of above-average soil water content, reduced seasonal plant water stress and resulted in an increase in ANPP. These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how terrestrial ecosystem will respond to forecast novel climate conditions as well as the difficulties in extending inferences from single site experiments across biomes. Even with no change in annual precipitation amount, ANPP responses in a relatively uniform physiographic region differed in both magnitude and direction in response to within season changes in rainfall event size/frequency. From a mechanistic perspective, we believe that these contingent responses reflect strikingly different consequences for soil water content as a result of

  5. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    PubMed

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  6. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    PubMed Central

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  7. Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Pal, Jeremy S.; Trapp, Robert J.; Giorgi, Filippo

    2005-11-01

    We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change. extreme climate | RegCM3 | regional climate model | United States | CO2

  8. Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, and precipitation frequency can have adverse impacts on human health, air quality, agricultural productivity, and water resources. Using the aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) "single forcing" simulations (3 ensemble members each) from the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, we investigate aerosol- versus greenhouse gas-induced changes in high temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States. We identify changes in these events from 1860 to 2005 and the associated large-scale dynamical conditions. Small changes in these extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the individual, opposite-signed effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, aerosols lead to lower extreme high temperatures and fewer warm spells over the western US (-2.1 K regional average; -20 days/year) and over the central and northeast US (-1.5 K; -12 days/year). In GHG, a similar but opposite-signed response pattern occurs (+2.7 K and +14 days/year over the western US; +2.5 K and +10 days/year in the central and northeast US). The similar spatial response patterns in AER versus GHG suggest a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the regional distribution of the forcing agent. The influence of both greenhouse gases and aerosols on extreme high temperature is weakest in the southeast US, collocated with the observed "warming hole". No statistically significant change occurs in AER, and a warming of only +1.8 K occurs in GHG. Warming in this region continues to be muted over the 21st century under the RCP 8.5 scenario, with increases in extreme temperatures more than 1 K smaller than elsewhere. Aerosols induce decreases in the number of days per year with at least 10mm of precipitation (R10mm) over the eastern US in summer and winter and over the southern US in spring of roughly 1 day/year. In contrast, greenhouse gases

  9. Estimation of Graded Response Model Parameters Using MULTILOG.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Frank B.

    1997-01-01

    Describes an idiosyncracy of the MULTILOG (D. Thissen, 1991) parameter estimation process discovered during a simulation study involving the graded response model. A misordering reflected in boundary function location parameter estimates resulted in a large negative contribution to the true score followed by a large positive contribution. These…

  10. Reliability and validity of responses to submaximal all-extremity semirecumbent exercise in older adults.

    PubMed

    Mendelsohn, Marissa E; Connelly, Denise M; Overend, Tom J; Petrella, Robert J

    2007-04-01

    Although popular in clinical settings, little is known about the utility of all-extremity semirecumbent exercise machines for research. Twenty-one community-dwelling older adults performed two exercise trials (three 4-min stages at increasing workloads) to evaluate the reliability and validity of exercise responses to submaximal all-extremity semirecumbent exercise (BioStep). Exercise responses were measured directly (Cosmed K4b2) and indirectly through software on the BioStep. Test-retest reliability (ICC2,1) was moderate to high across all three stages for directly measured METs (.92, .87, and .88) and HR (.91, .83, and .86). Concurrent criterion validity between the K4b2 and BioStep MET values was moderate to very good across the three stages on both Day 1 (r = .86, .71, and .83) and Day 2 (r = .73, .87, and .72). All-extremity semirecumbent submaximal exercise elicited reliable and valid responses in our sample of older adults and thus can be considered a viable exercise mode. PMID:17556784

  11. Ramp response estimation and spectrum extrapolation for ultrasonic scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, G. A.

    1984-08-01

    A combined application of digital signal processing, estimation theory, and scattering theory is used to attack the important problem of target identification. The basic problem is that of examining an object with an ultrasonic pulse and using the reflected signal to determine various properties of the object. Typically, an impulse reponse h(t) can be calculated from knowledge of the (input x(t)) signal and the reflected (output y(t)) signal. If the impulse response can be found, it can sometimes contain important information about the object. We have studied some new algorithms for impulse response estimation. It is also well-known that the ramp response contains information about the cross-sectional area of the scatterer. The ramp response can be calculated directly from the impulse response, but the estimate of cross-sectional area is degraded by the fact that the ultrasonic transducer severely bandlimits the data. Algorithms have been produced for extrapolating the ramp response spectrum to improve the cross-sectional area estimates from the ramp response technique. Experimental results demonstrating the estimation of properties of a known flaw (created by a saw cut) in a block of aluminum are presented.

  12. The Use of Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for Deriving Extreme Precipitation Frequencies with Application in Louisiana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Dardiry, Hisham Abd El-Kareem

    The Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) is one of the NEXRAD products that are available in a high temporal and spatial resolution compared with gauges. Radar-based QPEs have been widely used in many hydrological and meteorological applications; however, a few studies have focused on using radar QPE products in deriving of Precipitation Frequency Estimates (PFE). Accurate and regionally specific information on PFE is critically needed for various water resources engineering planning and design purposes. This study focused first on examining the data quality of two main radar products, the near real-time Stage IV QPE product, and the post real-time RFC/MPE product. Assessment of the Stage IV product showed some alarming data artifacts that contaminate the identification of rainfall maxima. Based on the inter-comparison analysis of the two products, Stage IV and RFC/MPE, the latter was selected for the frequency analysis carried out throughout the study. The precipitation frequency analysis approach used in this study is based on fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as a statistical model for the hydrologic extreme rainfall data that based on Annual Maximum Series (AMS) extracted from 11 years (2002-2012) over a domain covering Louisiana. The parameters of the GEV model are estimated using method of linear moments (L-moments). Two different approaches are suggested for estimating the precipitation frequencies; Pixel-Based approach, in which PFEs are estimated at each individual pixel and Region-Based approach in which a synthetic sample is generated at each pixel by using observations from surrounding pixels. The region-based technique outperforms the pixel based estimation when compared with results obtained by NOAA Atlas 14; however, the availability of only short record of observations and the underestimation of radar QPE for some extremes causes considerable reduction in precipitation frequencies in pixel-based and region

  13. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    PubMed Central

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  14. Response of shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, to extreme winter conditions in the Lower Laguna Madre, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hicks, D.W.; Onuf, C.P.; Tunnell, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    Effects of a severe freeze on the shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, were documented through analysis of temporal and spatial trends in below-ground biomass. The coincidence of the second lowest temperature (-10.6??C) in 107 years of record, 56 consecutive hours below freezing, high winds and extremely low water levels exposed the Laguna Madre, TX, to the most severe cold stress in over a century. H. wrightii tolerated this extreme freeze event. Annual pre- and post-freeze surveys indicated that below-ground biomass estimated from volume was Unaffected by the freeze event. Nor was there any post-freeze change in biomass among intertidal sites directly exposed to freezing air temperatures relative to subtidal sites which remained submerged during the freezing period.

  15. Evaluation of Piloted Inputs for Onboard Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Martos, Borja

    2013-01-01

    Frequency response estimation results are presented using piloted inputs and a real-time estimation method recently developed for multisine inputs. A nonlinear simulation of the F-16 and a Piper Saratoga research aircraft were subjected to different piloted test inputs while the short period stabilator/elevator to pitch rate frequency response was estimated. Results show that the method can produce accurate results using wide-band piloted inputs instead of multisines. A new metric is introduced for evaluating which data points to include in the analysis and recommendations are provided for applying this method with piloted inputs.

  16. An extreme ultraviolet telescope with no soft X-ray response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Finley, David S.; Jelinsky, Patrick; Bowyer, Stuart; Malina, Roger F.

    1986-01-01

    While EUV grazing incidence telescopes of conventional design exhibit a substantial X-ray response as well as an extreme UV response, and existing bandpass filters for the transmission of radiation longward of 400 A also transmit soft X-rays, the grazing incidence telescope presented suppresses this soft X-ray throughput through the incorporation of a Wolter Schwarzschild Type II mirror with large graze angles. The desirable features of an EUV photometric survey telescope are retained. An instrument of this design will be flown on the EUE mission, in order to make a survey of the sky at wavelengths longer than 400 A.

  17. Recent Findings on the Mechanical Responses of Nanostructures to Extreme Loading Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Chen Zhen; Gan Yong; Shen Luming; Chen, J. K.

    2010-05-21

    A systematic investigation is being performed to understand the combined size, loading rate and thermal effects on the responses of nanostructures such as nanofilms and nanowires. This paper summarizes what has been found so far, and presents the recent molecular dynamics simulations of the mechanical behaviors of single crystal fcc nanowires and nanofilms under different temperatures and extremely high strain rates. Based on the model-based simulation results, the mechanism of the nanostructural responses will be explored and future research tasks will be discussed.

  18. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-04-22

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response models estimate dose for inhalation and ground shine pathways. A methodology has been developed to incorporate ingestion doses into the emergency response models. The methodology follows a two-phase approach. The first phase estimates site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) which can be compared with predicted ground-level concentrations to determine if intervention is needed to protect the public. This phase uses accepted methods with little deviation from recommended guidance. The second phase uses site-specific data to estimate a 'best estimate' dose to offsite individuals from ingestion of foodstuffs. While this method deviates from recommended guidance, it is technically defensibly and more realistic. As guidance is updated, these methods also will need to be updated.

  19. Comparative Metagenomic Analysis Reveals Mechanisms for Stress Response in Hypoliths from Extreme Hyperarid Deserts.

    PubMed

    Le, Phuong Thi; Makhalanyane, Thulani P; Guerrero, Leandro D; Vikram, Surendra; Van de Peer, Yves; Cowan, Don A

    2016-01-01

    Understanding microbial adaptation to environmental stressors is crucial for interpreting broader ecological patterns. In the most extreme hot and cold deserts, cryptic niche communities are thought to play key roles in ecosystem processes and represent excellent model systems for investigating microbial responses to environmental stressors. However, relatively little is known about the genetic diversity underlying such functional processes in climatically extreme desert systems. This study presents the first comparative metagenome analysis of cyanobacteria-dominated hypolithic communities in hot (Namib Desert, Namibia) and cold (Miers Valley, Antarctica) hyperarid deserts. The most abundant phyla in both hypolith metagenomes were Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria and Bacteroidetes with Cyanobacteria dominating in Antarctic hypoliths. However, no significant differences between the two metagenomes were identified. The Antarctic hypolithic metagenome displayed a high number of sequences assigned to sigma factors, replication, recombination and repair, translation, ribosomal structure, and biogenesis. In contrast, the Namib Desert metagenome showed a high abundance of sequences assigned to carbohydrate transport and metabolism. Metagenome data analysis also revealed significant divergence in the genetic determinants of amino acid and nucleotide metabolism between these two metagenomes and those of soil from other polar deserts, hot deserts, and non-desert soils. Our results suggest extensive niche differentiation in hypolithic microbial communities from these two extreme environments and a high genetic capacity for survival under environmental extremes. PMID:27503299

  20. Whole-body heating decreases skin vascular response to low orthostatic stress in the lower extremities.

    PubMed

    Yamazaki, Fumio; Nakayama, Yoshiro; Sone, Ryoko

    2006-04-01

    To elucidate the influence of heat stress on cutaneous vascular response in the lower extremities during orthostatic stress, a head-up tilt (HUT) test at angles of 15 degrees, 30 degrees, 45 degrees, and 60 degrees for 4 min each was conducted under normothermic control conditions followed by whole-body heat stress produced by a hot water-perfused suit in healthy volunteers. Skin blood flows (SkBF) in the forearm, thigh, and calf were monitored using laser-Doppler flowmetry throughout the experiment. Furthermore, to elucidate the effects of increased core and local skin temperatures on the local vascular response in calf skin under increasing orthostatic stress, the thigh was occluded at 20, 30, 50, 70, and 80 mmHg with a cuff in both the normothermic condition and the whole-body or local heating condition. Significant decreases in forearm SkBF during HUT were observed at an angle of 60 degrees during normothermia and at 30 degrees or more during heating. SkBF in the thigh and calf was decreased significantly by HUT at 15 degrees and above during normothermia, and there was no significant reduction of SkBF in these sites during HUT at the lower angles (15 degrees -45 degrees ) during whole-body heating. Significant decreases of calf SkBF were observed at cuff pressures of 20 mmHg and above during normothermia and of 30 mmHg and above during whole-body and local heating, respectively. These results suggest that SkBF in the lower extremities shows a marked reduction compared with the upper extremities during low orthostatic stress in normothermia, and the enhanced skin vasoconstrictor response in the lower extremities is diminished by both whole-body and local heat stress. PMID:16839449

  1. The Stability of Extreme Response Style and Acquiescence Over 8 Years.

    PubMed

    Wetzel, Eunike; Lüdtke, Oliver; Zettler, Ingo; Böhnke, Jan R

    2016-06-01

    This study investigated the stability of extreme response style (ERS) and acquiescence response style (ARS) over a period of 8 years. ERS and ARS were measured with item sets drawn randomly from a large pool of items used in an ongoing German panel study. Latent-trait-state-occasion and latent-state models were applied to test the relationship between time-specific (state) response style behaviors and time-invariant trait components of response styles. The results show that across different random item samples, on average between 49% and 59% of the variance in the state response style factors was explained by the trait response style factors. This indicates that the systematic differences respondents show in their preferences for certain response categories are remarkably stable over a period of 8 years. The stability of ERS and ARS implies that it is important to consider response styles in the analysis of self-report data from polytomous rating scales, especially in longitudinal studies aimed at investigating stability in substantive traits. Furthermore, the stability of response styles raises the question in how far they might be considered trait-like latent variables themselves that could be of substantive interest. PMID:25986062

  2. Role of Soils in Hydrologic Response to Climate Extremes and Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Reedy, R. C.; Faunt, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing demand for water in response to growing global population underscores the need to better understand linkages and feedbacks between land surface processes and water resources to manage water resources more sustainably. Here we examine the role of soils on hydrologic response to climate extremes and land use change using field scale and remote sensing data at point to basin scales in the U.S. High Plains and California Central Valley. In the U.S. High Plains, soil-textural variations make the difference between sustainable water resources related to coarse-grained soils in the northern High Plains and groundwater mining associated with fine-grained soils in much of the central and southern High Plains. Field data show dynamic response of water resources to droughts and land use change in the northern High Plains with limited response in much of the central and southern High Plains. Soil profiles provide a key to the past by archiving system response to environmental changes in subsurface soil physics and environmental tracer data. Areas with coarse-grained soils are vulnerable to reduced recharge during droughts and increased recharge with land use change from perennial to annual vegetation whereas fine-grained soils are generally insensitive to these stresses. GRACE satellite monitoring of total water storage variations in response to recent droughts is consistent with these spatial variations in soils across the High Plains and hydrologic response to droughts.In the California Central Valley, coarse grained soils in alluvial basins result in dynamic hydrologic responses to climate extremes. GRACE satellite data show marked depletion in total water storage in response to recent droughts reflecting groundwater and surface reservoir storage declines consistent with regional groundwater modeling and monitoring data. The coarse alluvial soils typical of much of the region facilitate managed aquifer recharge in depleted aquifers to complement surface reservoir

  3. Intra-individual variation of extreme response style in mixed-mode panel studies

    PubMed Central

    Aichholzer, Julian

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that the self-report survey method suffers from many idiosyncratic biases, such as varying response styles due to different survey modes used. Using latent state-trait theory it is argued that response styles will also vary intra-individually, depending on the particular survey situation. In this study we examine intra-individual variation in extreme response style behavior (ERS) using mixed-mode survey panel data as a quasi-experimental setting. Data from the Irish National Election Study panel are used, which consists of repeated face-to-face and mail-back surveys. Latent transition analysis is used to detect switches in ERS, distinguishing ‘stable’ and ‘volatile’ respondents in terms of their response style. Overall, ERS is inflated in the intermediate mail component of the panel, whereas preliminary analyses suggest that low education and ideological extremity are drivers of that change. Results are discussed with regards to measurement errors in mixed-mode and longitudinal surveys. PMID:23522006

  4. On the mechanical modeling of the extreme softening/stiffening response of axially loaded tensegrity prisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraternali, Fernando; Carpentieri, Gerardo; Amendola, Ada

    2015-01-01

    We study the geometrically nonlinear behavior of uniformly compressed tensegrity prisms through fully elastic and rigid-elastic models. The given models predict a variety of mechanical behaviors in the regime of large displacements, including an extreme stiffening-type response, already known in the literature, and a newly discovered, extreme softening behavior. The latter may lead to a snap buckling event producing an axial collapse of the structure. The switching from one mechanical regime to another depends on the aspect ratio of the structure, the magnitude of the applied prestress, and the material properties of the constituent elements. We discuss potential mechanical and acoustic applications of such behaviors, which are related to the design and manufacture of tensegrity lattices and innovative metamaterials.

  5. Extreme flood estimation by the SCHADEX method in a snow-driven catchment: application to Atnasjø (Norway)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paquet, Emmanuel; Lawrence, Deborah

    2013-04-01

    The SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation was developed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013), and since 2008, it is the reference method used by Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard usingrainfall-runoff modelling. The MORDOR hydrological model (Garçon, 1999) has thus far been used for the rainfall-runoff modelling. MORDOR is a conceptual, lumped, reservoir model with daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt, and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 15 years, in particular for inflow forecasts for French mountainous catchments. SCHADEX has now also been applied to the Atnasjø catchment (463 km²), a well-documented inland catchment in south-central Norway, dominated by snowmelt flooding during spring/early summer. To support this application, a weather pattern classification based on extreme rainfall was first established for Norway (Fleig, 2012). This classification scheme was then used to build a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern distribution (MEWP), as introduced by Garavaglia et al. (2010) for extreme rainfall estimation. The MORDOR model was then calibrated relative to daily discharge data for Atnasjø. Finally, a SCHADEX simulation was run to build a daily discharge distribution with a sufficient number of simulations for assessing the extreme quantiles. Detailed results are used to illustrate how SCHADEX handles the complex and interacting hydrological processes driving flood generation in this snow driven catchment. Seasonal and monthly distributions, as well as statistics for several thousand simulated events reaching a 1000 years return level

  6. Physiological responses at five estimates of critical velocity.

    PubMed

    Bull, Anthony J; Housh, Terry J; Johnson, Glen O; Rana, Sharon R

    2008-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare critical velocity (CV) estimates from five mathematical models, and to examine the oxygen uptake (VO(2)) and heart rate (HR) responses during treadmill runs at the five estimates of CV. Ten subjects (six males and four females) performed one incremental test to determine maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2max)) and four or five randomly ordered constant-velocity trials on a treadmill for the estimation of CV. Five mathematical models were used to estimate CV for each subject including two linear, two nonlinear, and an exponential model. Up to five randomly ordered runs to exhaustion were performed by each subject at treadmill velocities that corresponded to the five CV estimates, and VO(2) and HR responses were monitored throughout each trial. The 3-parameter, nonlinear (Non-3) model produced CV estimates that were significantly (P < 0.05) less than the other four models. During runs at CV estimates, five subjects did not complete 60 min at the their estimate from the Non-3 model, nine did not complete 60 min at their estimate from the Non-2 model, and no subjects completed 60 min at any estimate from the other three models. The mean HR value (179 +/- 18 beats min(-1), HR(peak)) at the end of runs at CV using the Non-3 model was significantly less than the maximal HR (195 +/- 7 beats min(-1), HR(max)) achieved during the incremental trial to exhaustion. However, mean HR(peak) values from runs at all other CV estimates were not significantly different from HR(max). Furthermore, data indicated that mean HR(peak) values increased during runs at CV estimates from the third minute to the end of exercise for all models, and that these increases in VO(2) (range = 367-458 ml min(-1)) were significantly greater than that typically associated with O(2) drift ( approximately 200 ml min(-1)) for all but the exponential model, indicating a VO(2) slow component associated with CV estimates from four of the five models. However, the mean VO(2

  7. Evidence for Two Extremes of Ciliary Motor Response in a Single Swimming Microorganism

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Ilyong; Powers, Thomas R.; Valles, James M.

    2014-01-01

    Because arrays of motile cilia drive fluids for a range of processes, the versatile mechano-chemical mechanism coordinating them has been under scrutiny. The protist Paramecium presents opportunities to compare how groups of cilia perform two distinct functions, swimming propulsion and nutrient uptake. We present how the body cilia responsible for propulsion and the oral-groove cilia responsible for nutrient uptake respond to changes in their mechanical environment accomplished by varying the fluid viscosity over a factor of 7. Analysis with a phenomenological model of trajectories of swimmers made neutrally buoyant with magnetic forces combined with high-speed imaging of ciliary beating reveal that the body cilia exert a nearly constant propulsive force primarily by reducing their beat frequency as viscosity increases. By contrast, the oral-groove cilia beat at a nearly constant frequency. The existence of two extremes of motor response in a unicellular organism prompts unique investigations of factors controlling ciliary beating. PMID:24411242

  8. Evidence for two extremes of ciliary motor response in a single swimming microorganism.

    PubMed

    Jung, Ilyong; Powers, Thomas R; Valles, James M

    2014-01-01

    Because arrays of motile cilia drive fluids for a range of processes, the versatile mechano-chemical mechanism coordinating them has been under scrutiny. The protist Paramecium presents opportunities to compare how groups of cilia perform two distinct functions, swimming propulsion and nutrient uptake. We present how the body cilia responsible for propulsion and the oral-groove cilia responsible for nutrient uptake respond to changes in their mechanical environment accomplished by varying the fluid viscosity over a factor of 7. Analysis with a phenomenological model of trajectories of swimmers made neutrally buoyant with magnetic forces combined with high-speed imaging of ciliary beating reveal that the body cilia exert a nearly constant propulsive force primarily by reducing their beat frequency as viscosity increases. By contrast, the oral-groove cilia beat at a nearly constant frequency. The existence of two extremes of motor response in a unicellular organism prompts unique investigations of factors controlling ciliary beating. PMID:24411242

  9. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Mason, Matthew S.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with

  10. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2003-07-21

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response computer models are used to estimate dose following releases of radioactive materials to the environment. Downwind air and ground concentrations and their associated doses from inhalation and ground shine pathways are estimated. The emergency response model (PUFF-PLUME) uses real-time data to track either instantaneous (puff) or continuous (plume) releases. A site-specific ingestion dose model was developed for use with PUFF-PLUME that includes the following ingestion dose pathways pertinent to the surrounding SRS area: milk, beef, water, and fish. The model is simplistic and can be used with existing code output.

  11. Toward Extreme Biophysics: Deciphering the Infrared Response of Biomolecular Solutions at High Pressures.

    PubMed

    Imoto, Sho; Kibies, Patrick; Rosin, Christopher; Winter, Roland; Kast, Stefan M; Marx, Dominik

    2016-08-01

    Biophysics under extreme conditions is the fundamental platform for scrutinizing life in unusual habitats, such as those in the deep sea or continental subsurfaces, but also for putative extraterrestrial organisms. Therefore, an important thermodynamic variable to explore is pressure. It is shown that the combination of infrared spectroscopy with simulation is an exquisite approach for unraveling the intricate pressure response of the solvation pattern of TMAO in water, which is expected to be transferable to biomolecules in their native solvent. Pressure-enhanced hydrogen bonding was found for TMAO in water. TMAO is a molecule known to stabilize proteins against pressure-induced denaturation in deep-sea organisms. PMID:27351995

  12. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida.

    PubMed

    Rámila, Consuelo D P; Contreras, Samuel A; Di Domenico, Camila; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Vega, Andrea; Handford, Michael; Bonilla, Carlos A; Pizarro, Gonzalo E

    2016-11-01

    Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems. PMID:27322905

  13. Geomorphically Effective Energy Expenditure for Quantifying Channel Responses to Extreme Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amponsah, William; Righini, Margherita; Wohl, Ellen E.; Borga, Marco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rathburn, Sara L.; Surian, Nicola; Zoccatelli, Davide

    2016-04-01

    Flash floods are characterized by strong spatio-temporal rainfall variability and therefore show variations in energy expenditure and associated geomorphic impacts that depend on geological controls on channel geometry and sediment characteristics, as well as on variations in flood intensity. Geomorphic modification is expected to occur in river channels when driving forces (i.e., hydraulic and abrasive forces of water and sediment acting on the channel) exceed threshold of resisting forces (i.e., the ability of channel boundaries to remain unchanged by the passage of water and sediments). However, these forces that determine the capacity of floods to modify existing channel configuration are extremely difficult to quantify. Geomorphic impacts or hazards usually take the form of erosional and depositional modification of the pre-flood channel and valley geometry. A central question in hydrogeomorphology relates to why flash floods of similar magnitudes and intensities sometimes produce dissimilar geomorphic results? In fact, some less magnitude floods in terms of discharge per unit of drainage area have been found to produce major geomorphic damage than some high magnitude events. Furthermore, the use of peak instantaneous flow parameters such as discharge, velocity, shear stress and stream power to quantify geomorphic changes have often been non-deterministic and/or inconclusive. Investigations are therefore needed on how factors such as channel geometry, substrate, riparian vegetation, sediment supply, and flood magnitude and duration can interact and influence geomorphic effectiveness of high magnitude floods. The main objective of this study is to assess the coupled influence of flood-flow duration and total energy expenditure on geomorphic response to extreme flash floods, which is aimed at developing an index that combines flow duration, stream power per unit area and threshold for major channel erosion to be evaluated as a predictor of geomorphic adjustment

  14. The oceanic response of the Turkish Straits System to an extreme drop in atmospheric pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Book, Jeffrey W.; Jarosz, Ewa; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Beşiktepe, Åükrü

    2014-06-01

    Moorings across all four entry/exit sections of the Dardanelles Strait and the Bosphorus Strait simultaneously measured the response of the Turkish Straits System to the passage of a severe cyclonic storm that included an atmospheric pressure drop of more than 30 mbar in less than 48 h. The bottom pressure response at the Aegean Sea side of the Dardanelles Strait was consistent with an inverted barometer response, but the response at the other sections did not follow an inverted barometer, leading to a large bottom pressure gradient through the Turkish Straits System. Upper-layer flow toward the Aegean Sea was reversed by the storm and flow toward the Black Sea was greatly enhanced. Bottom pressure across the Sea of Marmara peaked 6 h after the passage of the storm's minimum pressure. The response on the Dardanelles side was a combination of sea elevation and pycnocline depth rise, and the response on the Bosphorus side was an even greater sea elevation rise and a drop in pycnocline depth. The peak in bottom pressure in the Sea of Marmara was followed by another reverse in the flow through the Dardanelles Strait as flow was then directed away from the Sea of Marmara in both straits. A simple conceptual model without wind is able to explain fluctuations in bottom pressure in the Sea of Marmara to a 0.89-0.96 level of correlation. This stresses the importance of atmospheric pressure dynamics in driving the mass flux of the Turkish Strait System for extreme storms.

  15. The Effect of Omitted Responses on Ability Estimation in IRT.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Ayala, R. J.; Plake, Barbara S.; Impara, James C.; Kozmicky, Michelle

    This study investigated the effect on examinees' ability estimate under item response theory (IRT) when they are presented an item, have ample time to answer the item, but decide not to respond to the item. Simulation data were modeled on an empirical data set of 25,546 examinees that was calibrated using the 3-parameter logistic model. The study…

  16. Iron homeostasis and responses to iron limitation in extreme acidophiles from the Ferroplasma genus.

    PubMed

    Potrykus, Joanna; Jonna, Venkateswara Rao; Dopson, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Extremely acidophilic archaea from the genus Ferroplasma inhabit iron-rich biomining environments and are important constituents of naturally occurring microbial consortia that catalyze the production of acid mine drainage. A combined bioinformatic, transcript profiling, and proteomic approach was used to elucidate iron homeostasis mechanisms in "F. acidarmanus" Fer1 and F. acidiphilum Y(T) . Bioinformatic analysis of the "F. acidarmanus" Fer1 genome sequence revealed genes encoding proteins hypothesized to be involved in iron-dependent gene regulation and siderophore biosynthesis; the Fhu and NRAMP cation acquisition systems; iron storage proteins; and the SUF machinery for the biogenesis of Fe-S clusters. A subset of homologous genes was identified on the F. acidiphilum Y(T) chromosome by direct PCR probing. In both strains, some of the genes appeared to be regulated in a ferrous/ferric iron-dependent manner, as indicated by RT-PCR. A detailed gel-based proteomics analysis of responses to iron depletion showed that a putative isochorismatase, presumably involved in siderophore biosynthesis, and the SufBCD system were upregulated under iron-limiting conditions. No evidence was obtained for iron sparing response during iron limitation. This study constitutes the first detailed investigation of iron homeostasis in extremely acidophilic archaea. PMID:21182194

  17. Influence of Turbulence, Orientation, and Site Configuration on the Response of Buildings to Extreme Wind

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings. PMID:24701140

  18. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

    PubMed

    Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-09-01

    The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. PMID:25065257

  19. Post Mortem Human Surrogate Injury Response of the Pelvis and Lower Extremities to Simulated Underbody Blast.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Ann M; Christopher, John J; Brozoski, Frederick; Salzar, Robert S

    2015-08-01

    Military vehicle underbody blast (UBB) is the cause of many serious injuries in theatre today; however, the effects of these chaotic events on the human body are not well understood. The purpose of this research was to replicate both UBB loading conditions and investigate occupant response in a controlled laboratory setting. In addition to better understanding the response of the human to high rate vertical loading, this test series also aimed to identify high rate injury thresholds. Ten whole body post mortem human surrogate (PMHS) tests were completed using the University of Virginia's ODYSSEY simulated blast rig under a range of loading conditions. Seat pan accelerations ranged from 291 to 738 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration, and foot pan accelerations from 234 to 858 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration. Post-test computed tomography (CT) scans and necropsies were performed to determine injuries, and revealed a combination of pelvic, lumbar, thoracic, and lower extremity injuries. The research in this paper discusses pelvis and lower extremity injuries under high rate vertical loads. PMID:25503737

  20. Maternal Microbe-Specific Modulation of Inflammatory Response in Extremely Low-Gestational-Age Newborns

    PubMed Central

    Fichorova, Raina N.; Onderdonk, Andrew B.; Yamamoto, Hidemi; Delaney, Mary L.; DuBois, Andrea M.; Allred, Elizabeth; Leviton, Alan

    2011-01-01

    The fetal response to intrauterine inflammatory stimuli appears to contribute to the onset of preterm labor as well as fetal injury, especially affecting newborns of extremely low gestational age. To investigate the role of placental colonization by specific groups of microorganisms in the development of inflammatory responses present at birth, we analyzed 25 protein biomarkers in dry blood spots obtained from 527 newborns delivered by Caesarean section in the 23rd to 27th gestation weeks. Bacteria were detected in placentas and characterized by culture techniques. Odds ratios for having protein concentrations in the top quartile for gestation age for individual and groups of microorganisms were calculated. Mixed bacterial vaginosis (BV) organisms were associated with a proinflammatory pattern similar to those of infectious facultative anaerobes. Prevotella and Gardnerella species, anaerobic streptococci, peptostreptococci, and genital mycoplasmas each appeared to be associated with a different pattern of elevated blood levels of inflammation-related proteins. Lactobacillus was associated with low odds of an inflammatory response. This study provides evidence that microorganisms colonizing the placenta provoke distinctive newborn inflammatory responses and that Lactobacillus may suppress these responses. PMID:21264056

  1. Edge Response and NIIRS Estimates for Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blonski, Slawomir; Ryan, Robert E.; Pagnutti, mary; Stanley, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Spatial resolution of panchromatic imagery from commercial remote sensing satellites was characterized based on edge response measurements using edge targets and the tilted-edge technique. Relative Edge Response (RER) was estimated as a geometric mean of normalized edge response differences measured in two directions of image pixels at points distanced from the edge by -0.5 and 0.5 of ground sample distance. RER is one of the engineering parameters used in the General Image Quality Equation to provide predictions of imaging system performance expressed in terms of the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale (NIIRS). By assuming a plausible range of signal-to-noise ratio and assessing the effects of Modulation Transfer Function compensation, the NIIRS estimates were made and then compared with vendor-provided values and evaluations conducted by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

  2. Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Russian Coasts of the Kuril Islands and the Sea of Okhotsk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevchenko, Georgy; Ivelskaya, Tatiana

    2015-12-01

    Extreme sea levels arising from the combination of tides, storm surges, seasonal oscillations and tsunamis were estimated by the joint probability method for the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific coast of the Kuril Islands. The sea-level observations at 10 coastal tide gauges were examined. The tidal heights at most stations are about 1.5-2 m, and only at Magadan are they much larger (about 5 m). Storm surges have the largest heights for the central Kuril Islands (Matua and Iturup islands), while at the North and South Kuril Islands the surge heights are the smallest. The recurrence of tsunami heights of various probabilities was estimated for each station. The influence of tides and storm surges on the tsunami risk assessment for the Pacific coast of the Kurile Islands was found to be relatively small. For the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk, the contribution of tides and surges is the primary influence, especially for return periods less than 100 years. For longer return periods, tsunamis play the major role in forming the extreme levels (similar to the Russian coast of the Sea of Japan, e.g., R abinovich et al. 1992).

  3. ADEQUACY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES OF YIELD RESPONSES TO OZONE ESTIMATED FROM NCLAN DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Three methods of estimating confidence intervals for the parameters of Weibull nonlinear models are examined. hese methods are based on linear approximation theory (Wald), the likelihood ratio test, and Clarke's (1987) procedures. nalyses are based on Weibull dose-response equati...

  4. Estimates of future flow, including extremes, of the Columbia River headwaters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bürger, G.; Schulla, J.; Werner, A. T.

    2011-10-01

    Streamflow projections, including extremes, for the 2050s for the Columbia River headwaters above Donald are obtained by downscaling four regional climate models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite and subsequent driving of a hydrologic model. We employ the entire model chain from global and regional climate models, station-based statistical downscaling, and a fully distributed, physically based hydrologic model and verify the results against observed streamflow. The performance is model dependent but is generally encouraging enough to justify the application of the climate scenarios. A general warming of about 2°C is projected and, on average, slightly drier conditions, especially in late summer. We find evidence that the projected changes are elevation dependent and relatively small scale, with decreasing signals with higher elevations. All models project a shift of the hydrograph toward a more rain-fed regime, with peak flows occurring in June instead of July. Annual peak flow is projected to not increase, and August low flow decreases in all four models. With nonshrinking (static) glaciers, relatively high melting rates are simulated for August and September that partly compensate for the shifted hydrograph; this enhanced glacier melt is also detected in simulated historic Columbia headwater flow. The static approximation is supported by a heuristic seasonal sensitivity analysis that suggests a moderate average areal glacier recession of about 10% for the midcentury. We discuss the need for a dynamic glacier component for a refined assessment of future drought risk.

  5. Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guangzhi; Osborn, Timothy J.; Matthews, Adrian J.; Joshi, Manoj M.

    2016-07-01

    On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of "moderate" and "extreme" El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST.

  6. A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation.

    PubMed

    Furukawa, Kyoji; Misumi, Munechika; Cologne, John B; Cullings, Harry M

    2016-06-01

    In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures. PMID:26581473

  7. On trend estimation and significance testing for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data: quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in hot extremes in the megacity of Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Cheng

    2016-07-01

    Quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in climate extremes is important both for detection and attribution studies and for human adaptation; however, a fundamental problem is how to accurately estimate a trend and its statistical significance, especially for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data. In this paper, the choice of trend estimation and significance testing method is suggested as important for these kinds of studies, as illustrated by quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in seven hot-extreme indices for the megacity of Shanghai during 1961-2013. Both linear and nonlinear trend estimation methods were used. The trends and corresponding statistical significances were estimated by taking into account potential non-Gaussian and serial dependence in the extreme indices. A new method based on adaptive surrogate data is proposed to test the statistical significance of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) nonlinear trend. The urbanization contribution was found to be approximately 34 % (43 %) for the trend in the non-Gaussian distributed heat wave index based on nonparametric linear trend (EEMD nonlinear trend) estimation. For some of the other six hot-extreme indices analyzed, the urbanization contributions estimated based on linear and nonlinear trends varied greatly, with as much as a twofold difference between them. For the linear trend estimation itself, the ordinary least squares fit can give a substantially biased estimation of the urbanization contribution for some of the non-Gaussian extreme indices.

  8. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    , frequency of disasters in a country, urbanization, and the level of human development (capturing income, life expectancy, and education)—and the numbers of people killed or in need of assistance at the country level. We replicate results from past studies in showing that human development, perhaps surprisingly, shows a strong non-linear relationship with risk (with countries of intermediate levels of development showing the highest risk levels), although we extend these results through the controlling for other variables. Second, we downscale a suite of GCMs using national meteorological data, in order to generate ranges of estimates for changes in the frequency of each of the climate hazards. Supplementing this, we consider a climate scenario that sees a linear extrapolation of current trends in hazard frequency. Third, we construct scenarios for each of the socio-economic vulnerability drivers, consistent with IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios for population and income changes, and UN estimates for other demographic changes. Pulling the three pieces of analysis together, we are able to construct risk scenarios until 2060. Our results are interesting in several respects. They show socio-economic development fully compensating for climate change in the impact on risk levels, within the range of estimated changes suggested by the suite of climate models. Recognizing the limits of models to predicting changed frequency of extreme events, there is also reason to believe that the current trend in increased hazard frequency may continue; for this latter scenario, risk levels rise substantially. Finally, given the observed non-linear relationship between development and risk, we observe in the B1 scenario risk levels at their highest level between 2030 and 2040, and then declining thereafter, as Mozambique passes the point of medium development. In the A2 scenario, by contrast, risk levels rise through mid-century, as development proceeds more slowly.

  9. Estimation of normalized point-source sensitivity of segment surface specifications for extremely large telescopes.

    PubMed

    Seo, Byoung-Joon; Nissly, Carl; Troy, Mitchell; Angeli, George; Bernier, Robert; Stepp, Larry; Williams, Eric

    2013-06-20

    We present a method which estimates the normalized point-source sensitivity (PSSN) of a segmented telescope when only information from a single segment surface is known. The estimation principle is based on a statistical approach with an assumption that all segment surfaces have the same power spectral density (PSD) as the given segment surface. As presented in this paper, the PSSN based on this statistical approach represents a worst-case scenario among statistical random realizations of telescopes when all segment surfaces have the same PSD. Therefore, this method, which we call the vendor table, is expected to be useful for individual segment specification such as the segment polishing specification. The specification based on the vendor table can be directly related to a science metric such as PSSN and provides the mirror vendors significant flexibility by specifying a single overall PSSN value for them to meet. We build a vendor table for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) and test it using multiple mirror samples from various mirror vendors to prove its practical utility. Accordingly, TMT has a plan to adopt this vendor table for its M1 segment final mirror polishing requirement. PMID:23842151

  10. Response of ice caves to weather extremes in the southeastern Alps, Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colucci, R. R.; Fontana, D.; Forte, E.; Potleca, M.; Guglielmin, M.

    2016-05-01

    High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesser-known portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature < 3 °C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0 °C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

  11. Parameter variability estimation using stochastic response surface model updating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Sheng-En; Zhang, Qiu-Hu; Ren, Wei-Xin

    2014-12-01

    From a practical point of view, uncertainties existing in structural parameters and measurements must be handled in order to provide reliable structural condition evaluations. At this moment, deterministic model updating loses its practicability and a stochastic updating procedure should be employed seeking for statistical properties of parameters and responses. Presently this topic has not been well investigated on account of its greater complexity in theoretical configuration and difficulty in inverse problem solutions after involving uncertainty analyses. Due to it, this paper attempts to develop a stochastic model updating method for parameter variability estimation. Uncertain parameters and responses are correlated through stochastic response surface models, which are actually explicit polynomial chaos expansions based on Hermite polynomials. Then by establishing a stochastic inverse problem, parameter means and standard deviations are updated in a separate and successive way. For the purposes of problem simplification and optimization efficiency, in each updating iteration stochastic response surface models are reconstructed to avoid the construction and analysis of sensitivity matrices. Meanwhile, in the interest of investigating the effects of parameter variability on responses, a parameter sensitivity analysis method has been developed based on the derivation of polynomial chaos expansions. Lastly the feasibility and reliability of the proposed methods have been validated using a numerical beam and then a set of nominally identical metal plates. After comparing with a perturbation method, it is found that the proposed method can estimate parameter variability with satisfactory accuracy and the complexity of the inverse problem can be highly reduced resulting in cost-efficient optimization.

  12. Responses of periphyton morphology, structure, and function to extreme nutrient loading.

    PubMed

    Lu, Haiying; Feng, Yanfang; Wang, Jinhua; Wu, Yonghong; Shao, Hongbo; Yang, Linzhang

    2016-07-01

    Periphyton have been widely applied in aquaculture systems, however, little information is available on how periphyton respond to such high nutrient levels in water. Thus, changes in the morphological characteristics, community structure, and metabolic function of periphyton under high eutrophic waters were evaluated. The results indicated that the morphology of periphyton was affected by increasing the nutrient concentration of water, which shifted the micromorphology of periphyton from spheriform to filamentous. The periphyton under higher water nutrient levels were able to utilize more carbon source types. Additionally, higher water nutrient levels increased the bacterial and protozoal proportions in periphyton. This study fills the gap in knowledge about the responses of periphytic communities to extremely eutrophic waters. It provides valuable information on the full understanding of the periphyton-nutrient relationship in aquaculture systems, which is beneficial for regulating the microbial species or communities in periphyton by manipulating the nutrient levels in water. PMID:27173591

  13. Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events

    PubMed Central

    Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Kellner, James R.; Forde, Alexander J.; Gruner, Daniel S.; Parker, John D.; Rodriguez, Wilfrid; Feller, Ilka C.

    2014-01-01

    Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of “extreme” cold events (days colder than −4 °C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems. PMID:24379379

  14. Estimating statistics of European wet and dry spells and associated precipitation extremes - interannual variability and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Belyaev, K.; Gulev, S.; Koltermann, K. P.

    2013-12-01

    Probability distributions of the durations of wet and dry spells were modeled by applying truncated geometric distribution. It has been also extended to the fractional truncated geometric distribution which allows for the discrimination between the roles of a changing number of wet days and of a regrouping of wet and dry days in forming synoptic structure of precipitation. Analyses were performed using 2 collections of daily rain gauge data namely ECA (about 1000 stations) and regional German DWD network (more than 6000 stations) for the period from 1950 to 2009. Wet spells exhibit a statistically significant lengthening over northern Europe and central European Russia, which is especially pronounced in winter when the mean duration of wet periods increased by 15%-20%. In summer wet spells become shorter over Scandinavia and northern Russia. The duration of dry spells decreases over Scandinavia and southern Europe in both winter and summer. Climate tendencies in extreme wet and dry spell durations may not necessarily follow those in mean characteristics. The changing numbers of wet days cannot explain the long-term variability in the duration of wet and dry periods. The observed changes are mainly due to the regrouping of wet and dry days. The tendencies in duration of wet and dry spells have been analyzed for a number of European areas. Over the Netherlands both wet and dry periods are extended in length during the cold and the warm season. A simultaneous shortening of wet and dry periods is found in southern Scandinavia in summer. Over France and central southern Europe during both winter and summer and over the Scandinavian Atlantic coast in summer, opposite tendencies in the duration of wet and dry spells were identified. Growing durations of wet spells are associated with more intense precipitation events while precipitation during shorter wet spells become weaker. Both analyses of relatively coarse resolution ECA data and high resolution DWD station network

  15. Optimal Colored Noise for Estimating Phase Response Curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morinaga, Kazuhiko; Miyata, Ryota; Aonishi, Toru

    2015-09-01

    The phase response curve (PRC) is an important measure representing the interaction between oscillatory elements. To understand synchrony in biological systems, many research groups have sought to measure PRCs directly from biological cells including neurons. Ermentrout et al. and Ota et al. showed that PRCs can be identified through measurement of white-noise spike-triggered averages. The disadvantage of this method is that one has to collect more than ten-thousand spikes to ensure the accuracy of the estimate. In this paper, to achieve a more accurate estimation of PRCs with a limited sample size, we use colored noise, which has recently drawn attention because of its unique effect on dynamical systems. We numerically show that there is an optimal colored noise to estimate PRCs in the most rigorous fashion.

  16. Characterization, parameter estimation, and aircraft response statistics of atmospheric turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mark, W. D.

    1981-01-01

    A nonGaussian three component model of atmospheric turbulence is postulated that accounts for readily observable features of turbulence velocity records, their autocorrelation functions, and their spectra. Methods for computing probability density functions and mean exceedance rates of a generic aircraft response variable are developed using nonGaussian turbulence characterizations readily extracted from velocity recordings. A maximum likelihood method is developed for optimal estimation of the integral scale and intensity of records possessing von Karman transverse of longitudinal spectra. Formulas for the variances of such parameter estimates are developed. The maximum likelihood and least-square approaches are combined to yield a method for estimating the autocorrelation function parameters of a two component model for turbulence.

  17. Acute response of airway muscle to extreme temperature includes disruption of actin-myosin interaction.

    PubMed

    Dyrda, Peter; Tazzeo, Tracy; DoHarris, Lindsay; Nilius, Berndt; Roman, Horia Nicolae; Lauzon, Anne-Marie; Aziz, Tariq; Lukic, Dusan; Janssen, Luke J

    2011-02-01

    Despite the emerging use of bronchial thermoplasty in asthma therapy, the response of airway smooth muscle (ASM) to extreme temperatures is unknown. We investigated the immediate effects of exposing ASM to supraphysiologic temperatures. Isometric contractions were studied in bovine ASM before and after exposure to various thermal loads and/or pharmacologic interventions. Actin-myosin interactions were investigated using a standard in vitro motility assay. We found steep thermal sensitivity for isometric contractions evoked by acetylcholine, with threshold and complete inhibition at less than 50°C and greater than 55°C, respectively. Contractile responses to serotonin or KCl were similarly affected, whereas isometric relaxations evoked by the nitric oxide donor S-nitrosyl-N-acetylpenicillamine or the β-agonist isoproterenol were unaffected. This thermal sensitivity developed within 15 minutes, but did not evolve further over the course of several days (such a rapid time-course rules out heat shock proteins, apoptosis, autophagy, and necrosis). Although heat-sensitive transient receptor potential (TRPV2) channels and the calmodulin-dependent (Cam) kinase-II-induced inactivation of myosin light chain kinase are both acutely thermally sensitive, with a temperature producing half-maximal effect (T(1/2)) of 52.5°C, the phenomenon we describe was not prevented by blockers of TRPV2 channels (e.g., ruthenium red, gadolinium, zero-Ca(2+) or zero-Na(+)/zero-Ca(2+) media, and cromakalim) or of Cam kinase-II (e.g., W7, trifluoperazine, and KN-93). However, direct measurements of actin-myosin interactions showed the same steep thermal profile. The functional changes preceded any histologic evidence of necrosis or apoptosis. We conclude that extreme temperatures (such as those used in bronchial thermoplasty) directly disrupt actin-myosin interactions, likely through a denaturation of the motor protein, leading to an immediate loss of ASM cell function. PMID:20395634

  18. Temporal Treatment of a Thermal Response for Defect Depth Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Plotnikov, Y. A.; Winfree, W. P.

    2004-01-01

    Transient thermography, which employs pulse surface heating of an inspected component followed by acquisition of the thermal decay stage, is gaining wider acceptance as a result of its remoteness and rapidness. Flaws in the component s material may induce a thermal contrast in surface thermograms. An important issue in transient thermography is estimating the depth of a subsurface flaw from the thermal response. This improves the quantitative ability of the thermal evaluation: from one scan it is possible to locate regions of anomalies in thickness (caused by corrosion) and estimate the implications of the flaw on the integrity of the structure. Our research focuses on thick composite aircraft components. A long square heating pulse and several minutes observation period are required to receive an adequate thermal response from such a component. Application of various time-related informative parameters of the thermal response for depth estimation is discussed. A three-dimensional finite difference model of heat propagation in solids in Cartesian coordinates is used to simulate the thermographic process. Typical physical properties of polymer graphite composites are assumed for the model.

  19. Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2016-01-01

    A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

  20. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Frome, E.L.; DuFrain, R.J.

    1986-03-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The lymphocytes are exposed to low-LET radiation, and the resulting dicentric chromosome aberrations follow the Poisson distribution. The expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been presented by Kellerer and Rossi (1972, Current Topics on Radiation Research Quarterly 8, 85-158; 1978, Radiation Research 75, 471-488) using the theory of dual radiation action. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting dose-time-response models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general-purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described, and estimation for the nonlinear models is illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  1. A Phisically Based Model of Runoff Generation For Estimating Extreme Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchment, L. S.; Gelfan, A. N.; Demidov, V. N.

    The model is based on the finite-element schematization of river basin and includes the description of the following hydrological processes: snow cover formation and snowmelt, freezing and thawing of soil, vertical soil moisture transfer and evapotran- spiration, water retention in basin storage, overland and channel flow. Stochastic sub- grid variations of snow cover and saturated hydraulic conductivity are taken into ac- count. The inputs of the model are precipitation measurements, daily air temperature, and daily air humidity deficit. The model simulates the snowmelt and rainfall runoff generation processes continuously during whole year. The case-study was carried out for the Seim River basin (the catchment area is 7460 km2). For calibration and veri- fication of the model, the 20-years hydrometeorological measurements were used (5 parameters were calibrated). The model was applied for estimation of the probable maximum snowmelt and rainfall floods as well as for assessment of exceedance prob- abilities of the flood peak discharges.To calculate the exceedance probabilities, 10000 random series of meteorological inputs were constructed with aid of the stochastic models of these inputs and the Monte-Carlo procedure. The calculated exceedance probabilities of the flood peak discharges were compared with ones calculated using 61-years runoff data. The good correspondence of the measured and calculated values was obtained.

  2. A Multivariate Statistical Approach based on a Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) Generator for Estimating the Frequency of Extreme Storm Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, N. Z.; Gao, S.

    2015-12-01

    Challenges of fully considering the complexity among spatially and temporally varied rainfall always exist in flood frequency analysis. Conventional approaches that simplify the complexity of spatiotemporal interactions generally undermine their impacts on flood risks. A previously developed stochastic storm generator called Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) aims to address the highly-dependent nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and movement of the storm. The authors utilize a multivariate statistical approach based on DMS to estimate the occurrence probability or frequency of extreme storm events. Fifteen years of radar rainfall data is used to generate a large number of synthetic storms as basis for statistical assessment. Two parametric retrieval algorithms are developed to recognize rain cells and track storm motions respectively. The resulted parameters are then used to establish probability density functions (PDFs), which are fitted to parametric distribution functions for further Monte Carlo simulations. Consequently, over 1,000,000 synthetic storms are generated based on twelve retrieved parameters for integrated risk assessment and ensemble forecasts. Furthermore, PDFs for parameters are used to calculate joint probabilities based on 2-dimensional Archimedean-Copula functions to determine the occurrence probabilities of extreme events. The approach is validated on the Upper Trinity River watershed and the generated results are compared with those from traditional rainfall frequency studies (i.e. Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, and Areal Reduction Factors).

  3. Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

    PubMed Central

    Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  4. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

    PubMed

    Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-26

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  5. Method of estimating pulse response using an impedance spectrum

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, John L; Morrison, William H; Christophersen, Jon P; Motloch, Chester G

    2014-10-21

    Electrochemical Impedance Spectrum data are used to predict pulse performance of an energy storage device. The impedance spectrum may be obtained in-situ. A simulation waveform includes a pulse wave with a period greater than or equal to the lowest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Fourier series coefficients of the pulse train can be obtained. The number of harmonic constituents in the Fourier series are selected so as to appropriately resolve the response, but the maximum frequency should be less than or equal to the highest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Using a current pulse as an example, the Fourier coefficients of the pulse are multiplied by the impedance spectrum at corresponding frequencies to obtain Fourier coefficients of the voltage response to the desired pulse. The Fourier coefficients of the response are then summed and reassembled to obtain the overall time domain estimate of the voltage using the Fourier series analysis.

  6. Estimated operator exposure for hand holding portable X-ray units during imaging of the equine distal extremity.

    PubMed

    Tyson, Reid; Smiley, Douglas C; Pleasant, Robert S; Daniel, Gregory B

    2011-01-01

    Hand holding of portable X-ray units is common in large animal ambulatory veterinary practice. Portable X-ray equipment manuals, veterinary teaching institutions, and state regulations discourage, or prohibit, hand holding of portable X-ray units. Our goal was to quantify surface radiation leakage of a typical portable X-ray unit and to measure operator exposure at simulated hand and collar positions during imaging of the equine distal extremity. Each exposure for the study was performed at 80 kVp and 7.5 mAs and repeated 10 times. Measurement of tube radiation leakage was performed along each surface of the portable X-ray unit. To determine the operator exposure more accurately, an equine cadaver limb was used to generate scatter radiation for the following views: lateral carpus, lateral foot, palmaroproximal-palmarodistal, and dorsal 60° proximal-palmarodistal obliques of the navicular region. A Pancake Ion Chamber was placed at the handle and at simulated collar position to record estimated occupational exposure. To estimate the effect of lead shielding, exposure measurements were performed within the primary beam and behind a 0.5 mm lead equivalent apron and within an >0.5 mm lead equivalent glove. The average hand and collar dose was 0.471 and 0.327 mR/exposure, respectively. The lead apron and glove attenuated the primary beam 96.9 and 99.2%, respectively. This reduced average hand and collar exposures to 0.0038 and 0.0101 mR/exposure, respectively. Theoretical occupational limits are reached for the collar (whole body) before the hand (extremity). PMID:21388461

  7. Ultramarathon is an outstanding model for the study of adaptive responses to extreme load and stress.

    PubMed

    Millet, Grégoire P; Millet, Guillaume Y

    2012-01-01

    Ultramarathons comprise any sporting event involving running longer than the traditional marathon length of 42.195 km (26.2 miles). Studies on ultramarathon participants can investigate the acute consequences of ultra-endurance exercise on inflammation and cardiovascular or renal consequences, as well as endocrine/energetic aspects, and examine the tissue recovery process over several days of extreme physical load. In a study published in BMC Medicine, Schütz et al. followed 44 ultramarathon runners over 4,487 km from South Italy to North Cape, Norway (the Trans Europe Foot Race 2009) and recorded daily sets of data from magnetic resonance imaging, psychometric, body composition and biological measurements. The findings will allow us to better understand the timecourse of degeneration/regeneration of some lower leg tissues such as knee joint cartilage, to differentiate running-induced from age-induced pathologies (for example, retropatelar arthritis) and finally to assess the interindividual susceptibility to injuries. Moreover, it will also provide new information about the complex interplay between cerebral adaptations/alterations and hormonal influences resulting from endurance exercise and provide data on the dose-response relationship between exercise and brain structure/function. Overall, this study represents a unique attempt to investigate the limits of the adaptive response of human bodies.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/78. PMID:22812424

  8. Chloroform: exposure estimation, hazard characterization, and exposure-response analysis.

    PubMed

    Meek, M E; Beauchamp, R; Long, G; Moir, D; Turner, L; Walker, M

    2002-01-01

    Chloroform has been assessed as a Priority Substance under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. The general population in Canada is exposed to chloroform principally through inhalation of indoor air, particularly during showering, and through ingestion of tap water. Data on concentrations of chloroform in various media were sufficient to serve as the basis for development of deterministic and probabilistic estimates of exposure for the general population in Canada. On the basis of data acquired principally in studies in experimental animals, chloroform causes hepatic and renal tumors in mice and renal tumors in rats. The weight of evidence indicates that chloroform is likely carcinogenic only at concentrations that induce the obligatory precursor lesions of cytotoxicity and proliferative regenerative response. Since this cytotoxicity is primarily related to rates of formation of reactive, oxidative metabolites, dose response has been characterized in the context of rates of formation of reactive metabolites in the target tissue. Results presented here are from a "hybrid" physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) animal model that was revised to permit its extension to humans. The relevant measure of exposure response, namely, the mean rate of metabolism in humans associated with a 5% increase in tumor risk (TC05), was estimated on the basis of this PBPK model and compared with tissue dose measures resulting from 24-h multimedia exposure scenarios for Canadians based on midpoint and 95th percentiles for concentrations in outdoor air, indoor air, air in the shower compartment, air in the bathroom after showering, tap water, and food. Nonneoplastic effects observed most consistently at lowest concentrations or doses following repeated exposures of rats and mice to chloroform are cytotoxicity and regenerative proliferation. As for cancer, target organs are the liver and kidney. In addition, chloroform has induced nasal lesions in rats and mice exposed by both

  9. Model test evaluation of a frequency-domain procedure for extreme surge response prediction of tension leg platforms

    SciTech Connect

    Botelho, D.L.R.; Finnigan, T.D.; Liu, S.V.; Petrauskas, C.

    1984-05-01

    A frequency-domain procedure for the extreme surge response prediction of tension leg platforms (TLP) under waves and current loading is presented and evaluated. The procedure incorporates both first- and second-order viscous and potential (inviscid) effects. The evaluation is based on results of hydrodynamic tests performed on a 1/60 scale model of a TLP. The tests were specifically designed to quantify the wave current interaction effects on surge. Therefore, the TLP model was tested under currents only (simulated by towing), waves only, and combined waves and current. The procedure is shown to perform well for predicting the extreme response in random waves and current except when groups of large waves are present. In this case, the extreme response is underpredicted. Areas in which this situation can be improved are identified.

  10. Parameter estimation of multiple item response profile model.

    PubMed

    Cho, Sun-Joo; Partchev, Ivailo; De Boeck, Paul

    2012-11-01

    Multiple item response profile (MIRP) models are models with crossed fixed and random effects. At least one between-person factor is crossed with at least one within-person factor, and the persons nested within the levels of the between-person factor are crossed with the items within levels of the within-person factor. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of models for binary data with crossed random effects is challenging. This is because the marginal likelihood does not have a closed form, so that MLE requires numerical or Monte Carlo integration. In addition, the multidimensional structure of MIRPs makes the estimation complex. In this paper, three different estimation methods to meet these challenges are described: the Laplace approximation to the integrand; hierarchical Bayesian analysis, a simulation-based method; and an alternating imputation posterior with adaptive quadrature as the approximation to the integral. In addition, this paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of these three estimation methods for MIRPs. The three algorithms are compared in a real data application and a simulation study was also done to compare their behaviour. PMID:22070786

  11. Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borga, Marco; Stoffel, Markus; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Jakob, Matthias

    2014-10-01

    Flash floods and debris flows develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems for rainfall, streamflow and sediment discharge are not able to monitor. Consequently, the atmospheric, hydrological and geomorphic controls on these hydrogeomorphic processes are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain warning and risk management. On the other hand, remote sensing of precipitation and numerical weather predictions have become the basis of several flood forecasting systems, enabling increasingly accurate detection of hazardous events. The objective of this paper is to provide a review on current European and international research on early warning systems for flash floods and debris flows. We expand upon these themes by identifying: (a) the state of the art; (b) knowledge gaps; and (c) suggested research directions to advance warning capabilities for extreme hydrogeomorphic processes. We also suggest three areas in which advancements in science will have immediate and important practical consequence, namely development of rainfall estimation and nowcasting schemes suited to the specific space-time scales, consolidating physical, engineering and social datasets of flash floods and debris-flows, integration of methods for multiple hydrogeomorphic hazard warning.

  12. Response of conservation measures from small cultivated watersheds, concerning runoff and erosion, under the impact of extreme rainfall events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popa, N.

    2008-11-01

    The study has been made in a representative small watershed with gently to hilly slopes from Tutova Rolling Hills, Romania. The system of conservation measures is represented by stripcroping, bufferstrips, bench terraces, a grassed waterway and a drainage network. The monitoring of hydrological response of agricultural units has been made in two cross sections corresponding to each of the land use type by means of two concrete triangular weirs. The most important soil losses were caused by three extreme rainfall events from August 2004, May 2005 and September 2007. At the date of the first rainfall event, the soil was generally very well protected against erosion by the vegetative cover, excepting parcels that were just ploughed after the mash crop. In that case, it was estimated that the value of soil losses ranged between 20.0 and 24.5 t/ha while for the other crops like corn and soybean, soil losses they were 1.0-1.5 t/ha and 0.5-0.8 t/ha respectively. Damages caused by the rainfall from September 2007 were much more important because at that time about 30% from the entire surface was just prepared for rape seeding. Maximum value of erosion was 95 t/ha on a parcel with 16% slope and 50m length along the slope.

  13. Investigating extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate in the Chinese monsoonal zone: A palaeoflood case study from the Hanjiang River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Yongqiang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Zhou, Yali; Wang, Longsheng; Zhang, Yuzhu; Hu, Guiming

    2015-06-01

    Palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits (SWDs) were investigated extensively by sedimentological criteria of palaeohydrology along the upper Hanjiang River valley. Modern flood SWDs were collected for comparison with palaeoflood SWD in the same reaches. Three typical palaeoflood SWDs were observed within Holocene loess-soil blanket on the first river terrace land. The grain size distributions of palaeoflood SWDs are similar to modern flood SWDs, whereas they are different from eolian loess and soil. Palaeoflood SWD lies in three major pedo-stratigraphic boundaries (TS/L0, L0/S0, and S0/Lt) in the Holocene loess-soil profiles. The chronology of three palaeoflood episodes was established by OSL dating and pedo-stratigraphic correlation with the well-dated Holocene loess-soil profiles in the upper Hanjiang River basin. Holocene palaeoflood events were dated to 9500-8500, 3200-2800, and 1800-1700 a B.P., respectively. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated by the palaeoflood model (i.e., slope-area method and step-backwater method). The highest discharges are 51,680-53,950 m3 s- 1 at the 11,500-time scale in the Xunyang reach of the upper Hanjiang River valley. Holocene extraordinary hydroclimatic events in the Hanjiang River often result from abnormal atmospheric circulations from Southwest monsoons in the Chinese monsoonal zone. These results provide a regional expression of extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate to understand the effects of global climatic variations on the river system dynamics.

  14. Limited information estimation of the diffusion-based item response theory model for responses and response times.

    PubMed

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2016-05-01

    Psychological tests are usually analysed with item response models. Recently, some alternative measurement models have been proposed that were derived from cognitive process models developed in experimental psychology. These models consider the responses but also the response times of the test takers. Two such models are the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model. Both models can be calibrated with the diffIRT package of the R statistical environment via marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation. In this manuscript, an alternative approach to model calibration is proposed. The approach is based on weighted least squares estimation and parallels the standard estimation approach in structural equation modelling. Estimates are determined by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed and the implied covariance matrix. The estimator is simple to implement, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. Least squares estimation also provides a test of model fit by comparing the observed and implied covariance matrix. The estimator and the test of model fit are evaluated in a simulation study. Although parameter recovery is good, the estimator is less efficient than the MML estimator. PMID:26853083

  15. Estimating Hemodynamic Responses to the Wingate Test Using Thoracic Impedance

    PubMed Central

    Astorino, Todd A.; Bovee, Curtis; DeBoe, Ashley

    2015-01-01

    Techniques including direct Fick and Doppler echocardiography are frequently used to assess hemodynamic responses to exercise. Thoracic impedance has been shown to be a noninvasive alternative to these methods for assessing these responses during graded exercise to exhaustion, yet its feasibility during supramaximal bouts of exercise is relatively unknown. We used thoracic impedance to estimate stroke volume (SV) and cardiac output (CO) during the Wingate test (WAnT) and compared these values to those from graded exercise testing (GXT). Active men (n = 9) and women (n = 7) (mean age = 24.8 ± 5.9 yr) completed two Wingate tests and two graded exercise tests on a cycle ergometer. During exercise, heart rate (HR), SV, and CO were continuously estimated using thoracic impedance. Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to identify potential differences in hemodynamic responses across protocols. Results: Maximal SV (138.6 ± 37.4 mL vs. 135.6 ± 26.9 mL) and CO (24.5 ± 6.1 L·min-1 vs. 23.7 ± 5.1 L·min-1) were similar (p > 0.05) between repeated Wingate tests. Mean maximal HR was higher (p < 0.01) for GXT (185 ± 7 b·min-1) versus WAnT (177 ± 11 b·min-1), and mean SV was higher in response to WAnT (137.1 ± 32.1 mL) versus GXT (123.0 ± 32.0 mL), leading to similar maximal cardiac output between WAnT and GXT (23.9 ± 5.6 L·min-1 vs. 22.5 ± 6.0 L·min-1). Our data show no difference in hemodynamic responses in response to repeated administrations of the Wingate test. In addition, the Wingate test elicits similar cardiac output compared to progressive cycling to VO2max. Key points Measurement of cardiac output (CO), the rate of oxygen transport delivered by the heart to skeletal muscle, is not widely-employed in Exercise Physiology due to the level of difficulty and invasiveness characteristic of most techniques used to measure this variable. Nevertheless, thoracic impedance has been shown to provide a noninvasive and simpler approach to continuously

  16. Controls on coastal dune morphology, shoreline erosion and barrier island response to extreme storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Houser, C.; Hapke, C.; Hamilton, S.

    2008-01-01

    The response of a barrier island to an extreme storm depends in part on the surge elevation relative to the height and extent of the foredunes which can exhibit considerable variability alongshore. While it is recognized that alongshore variations in dune height and width direct barrier island response to storm surge, the underlying causes of the alongshore variation remain poorly understood. This study examines the alongshore variation in dune morphology along a 11??km stretch of Santa Rosa Island in northwest Florida and relates the variation in morphology to the response of the island during Hurricane Ivan and historic and storm-related rates of shoreline erosion. The morphology of the foredune and backbarrier dunes was characterized before and after Hurricane Ivan using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and related through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The height and extent of the foredune, and the presence and relative location of the backbarrier dunes, varied alongshore at discrete length scales (of ~ 750, 1450 and 4550??m) that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Cospectral analysis suggests that the variation in dune morphology is correlated with transverse ridges on the inner-shelf, the backbarrier cuspate headlands, and the historical and storm-related trends in shoreline change. Sections of the coast with little to no dune development before Hurricane Ivan were observed in the narrowest portions of the island (between headlands), west of the transverse ridges. Overwash penetration tended to be larger in these areas and island breaching was common, leaving the surface close to the watertable and covered by a lag of shell and gravel. In contrast, large foredunes and the backbarrier dunes were observed at the widest sections of the island (the cuspate headlands) and at crest of the transverse ridges. Due to the large dunes and the presence of the backbarrier dunes, these areas experienced less overwash penetration

  17. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Mason, Matthew S.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical

  18. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agro-ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter-early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments: cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in seed germination in both W and M treatments and a delay in germination for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co.

  19. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.

  20. The fire-walker's high: affect and physiological responses in an extreme collective ritual.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual. PMID:24586315

  1. Multi-trophic level response to extreme metal contamination from gold mining in a subarctic lake.

    PubMed

    Thienpont, Joshua R; Korosi, Jennifer B; Hargan, Kathryn E; Williams, Trisha; Eickmeyer, David C; Kimpe, Linda E; Palmer, Michael J; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

    2016-08-17

    Giant Mine, located in the city of Yellowknife (Northwest Territories, Canada), is a dramatic example of subarctic legacy contamination from mining activities, with remediation costs projected to exceed $1 billion. Operational between 1948 and 2004, gold extraction at Giant Mine released large quantities of arsenic and metals from the roasting of arsenopyrite ore. We examined the long-term ecological effects of roaster emissions on Pocket Lake, a small lake at the edge of the Giant Mine lease boundary, using a spectrum of palaeoenvironmental approaches. A dated sedimentary profile tracked striking increases (approx. 1700%) in arsenic concentrations coeval with the initiation of Giant Mine operations. Large increases in mercury, antimony and lead also occurred. Synchronous changes in biological indicator assemblages from multiple aquatic trophic levels, in both benthic and pelagic habitats, indicate dramatic ecological responses to extreme metal(loid) contamination. At the peak of contamination, all Cladocera, a keystone group of primary consumers, as well as all planktonic diatoms, were functionally lost from the sediment record. No biological recovery has been inferred, despite the fact that the bulk of metal(loid) emissions occurred more than 50 years ago, and the cessation of all ore-roasting activities in Yellowknife in 1999. PMID:27534958

  2. The Fire-Walker’s High: Affect and Physiological Responses in an Extreme Collective Ritual

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual. PMID:24586315

  3. The Mediterranean Benthic Herbivores Show Diverse Responses to Extreme Storm Disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Pagès, Jordi F.; Gera, Alessandro; Romero, Javier; Farina, Simone; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Hereu, Bernat; Alcoverro, Teresa

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic storms have been observed to be one of the major elements in shaping the standing structure of marine benthic ecosystems. Yet, little is known about the effect of catastrophic storms on ecosystem processes. Specifically, herbivory is the main control mechanism of macrophyte communities in the Mediterranean, with two main key herbivores: the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the fish Sarpa salpa. Consequently, the effects of extreme storm events on these two herbivores (at the population level and on their behaviour) may be critical for the functioning of the ecosystem. With the aim of filling this gap, we took advantage of two parallel studies that were conducted before, during and after an unexpected catastrophic storm event. Specifically, fish and sea urchin abundance were assessed before and after the storm in monitored fixed areas (one site for sea urchin assessment and 3 sites for fish visual transects). Additionally, we investigated the behavioural response to the disturbance of S. salpa fishes that had been tagged with acoustic transmitters. Given their low mobility, sea urchins were severely affected by the storm (ca. 50% losses) with higher losses in those patches with a higher density of sea urchins. This may be due to a limited availability of refuges within each patch. In contrast, fish abundance was not affected, as fish were able to move to protected areas (i.e. deeper) as a result of the high mobility of this species. Our results highlight that catastrophic storms differentially affect the two dominant macroherbivores of rocky macroalgal and seagrass systems due to differences in mobility and escaping strategies. This study emphasises that under catastrophic disturbances, the presence of different responses among the key herbivores of the system may be critical for the maintenance of the herbivory function. PMID:23667512

  4. Oscillation Responses to an Extreme Weather Event from a Deep Moored Observing System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; Dimarco, S. F.; Stoessel, M. M.; Zhang, X.; Ingle, S.

    2011-12-01

    In June 2007 tropical Cyclone Gonu passed directly over an ocean observing system consisting of four, deep autonomous mooring stations along the 3000 m isobath in the northern Arabian Sea. Gonu was the largest cyclone known to have occurred in the Arabian Sea or to strike the Arabian Peninsula. The mooring system was designed by Lighthouse R & D Enterprises, Inc. and installed in cooperation with the Oman Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Wealth. The instruments on the moorings continuously recorded water velocities, temperature, conductivity, pressure, dissolved oxygen and turbidity at multiple depths and at hourly intervals during the storm. Near-inertial oscillations at all moorings from thermocline to seafloor are coincident with the arrival of Gonu. Sub-inertial oscillations with periods of 2-10 days are recorded at the post-storm relaxation stage of Gonu, primarily in the thermocline. These oscillations consist of warm, saline water masses, likely originating from the Persian Gulf. Prominent 12.7-day sub-inertial waves, measured at a station ~300 km offshore, are bottom-intensified and have characteristics of baroclinic, topographically-trapped waves. Theoretical results from a topographically-trapped wave model are in a good agreement with the observed 12.7-day waves. The wavelength of the 12.7-day waves is about 590 km calculated from the dispersion relationship. Further analysis suggests that a resonant standing wave is responsible for trapping the 12.7-day wave energy inside the Sea of Oman basin. The observational results reported here are the first measurements of deepwater responses to a tropical cyclone in the Sea of Oman/Arabian Sea. Our study demonstrates the utility of sustained monitoring for studying the impact of extreme weather events on the ocean.

  5. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Frome, E.L; DuFrain, R.J.

    1983-10-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between the yield of dicentric chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The dicentric yields follow the Poisson distribution, and the expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose for low LET radiation. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been obtained by Kellerer and Rossi using the theory of dual radiation action. The yield of elementary lesions is kappa(..gamma..d + g(t, tau)d/sup 2/), where t is the time and d is dose. The coefficient of the d/sup 2/ term is determined by the recovery function and the temporal mode of irradiation. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described and illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  6. Deciphering landscape complexity to predict (non)linear responses to extreme climatic events

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme events are increasing in frequency and magnitude for many landscapes globally. Ecologically, most of the focus on extreme climatic events has been on effects of either short-term pulses (floods, freezes) or long-term drought. Multi-year increases in precipitation are also occurring with litt...

  7. Soliciting Feedback from Resource Managers to Inform Response to Extreme Event Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bedsworth, L. W.

    2014-12-01

    To date, extreme events have been defined by scientists through a top-down approach, relying on observations for current extremes and climate model projections based on future scenarios for their expected changes. These abstract definitions of extreme events are based on a corresponding characterization of what is "normal" and perhaps the choice of a threshold (e.g., a percentile of a historical distribution for a given climate variable), beyond which would represent an extreme event. However, there are not necessarily direct connections between these definitions and what is considered "extreme" in terms of impacts that challenge resource management. Several researchers have suggested that extreme event definitions would also be informed by input from on-the-ground resource managers who are familiar with the systems being impacted, the climate conditions that pose risks to those systems, and their resilience and adaptive capacity. This research will present preliminary survey work designed to solicit input from air and water quality managers in terms of what is considered an extreme event, how these events have been weathered in the past, and planned for in the future. The survey is based on literature review, interviews with air and water quality managers in California, and outreach to the scientific community. This work is the first step of a multistage research effort to link input from resource managers with scientific information to better inform air and water quality management and impacts of extreme events under a changing climate.

  8. Extreme Response Style in Recurrent and Chronically Depressed Patients: Change with Antidepressant Administration and Stability during Continuation Treatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Timothy J.; Feldman, Greg; Harley, Rebecca; Fresco, David M.; Graves, Lesley; Holmes, Avram; Bogdan, Ryan; Papakostas, George I.; Bohn, Laurie; Lury, R. Alana; Fava, Maurizio; Segal, Zindel V.

    2007-01-01

    The authors examined extreme response style in recurrently and chronically depressed patients, assessing its role in therapeutic outcome. During the acute phase, outpatients with major depressive disorder (N = 384) were treated with fluoxetine for 8 weeks. Remitted patients (n = 132) entered a continuation phase during which their fluoxetine dose…

  9. Analysis of the mechanical response of extreme ultraviolet lithography masks during electrostatic chucking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nataraju, Madhura

    Stringent flatness requirements have been imposed for the front and back surfaces of Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUVL) masks to ensure successful pattern transfer that satisfies the image placement error budget. During exposure an electrostatic chuck will be used to support and flatten the mask. The EUVL Mask and Chucking Standards, SEMI P-37 and SEMI P-40, specify the flatness of the two mask surfaces as well as the chucking surface to be within about 50 nm peak-to-valley. It is critical that the electrostatic chucking process and its effect on mask flatness be well-understood. The principal objective of this thesis is to develop a model that predicts the electrostatic chucking response of masks and the resulting flatness of the pattern surface using FE techniques and to validate this model with chucking experiments. Studies are performed to evaluate the definition of flatness as given in the SEMI standards and a more efficient representation is suggested. Classical plate theory is used to illustrate the effect of chuck thickness and stiffness on the chucking response of masks. A basic FE model is developed to demonstrate that the sum of the chuck shape and thickness variation of the mask are crucial to the response of the mask during chucking. FE models are also developed to model clamping using a bipolar Coulombic pin chuck used for this research. The initial geometry of the mask and chuck surfaces are created using interferometric flatness data. Chucking is simulated by the application of forces between the mask backside and the chuck surface. The final pattern surface shape is compared with experimental electrostatic chucking results. An experimental set-up is developed to validate the FE model predictions. This consists of a Zygo interferometer mounted on top of an optical table, inside a cleanroom, with the chuck and mask placed inside a vacuum chamber. Once the voltage is turned on, the pattern surface nonflatness is measured using the interferometer

  10. Evaluating environmental joint extremes for the offshore industry using the conditional extremes model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewans, Kevin; Jonathan, Philip

    2014-02-01

    Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore structures is fundamental in determining the design loads. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity, and a floating system responds in a complex way to both variables. Specification of joint extremes in design criteria has often been somewhat ad hoc, being based on fairly arbitrary combinations of extremes of variables estimated independently. Such approaches are even outlined in design guidelines. Mathematically more consistent estimates of the joint occurrence of extreme environmental variables fall into two camps in the offshore industry - response-based and response-independent. Both are outlined here, with emphasis on response-independent methods, particularly those based on the conditional extremes model recently introduced by (Heffernan and Tawn, 2004), which has a solid theoretical motivation. We illustrate an application of the conditional extremes model to joint estimation of extreme storm peak significant wave height and peak period at a northern North Sea location, incorporating storm direction as a model covariate. We also discuss joint estimation of extreme current profiles with depth off the North West Shelf of Australia. Methods such as the conditional extremes model provide valuable additions to the metocean engineer's toolkit.

  11. Response of extreme flood characteristics based on future climate change scenarios at Yermasoyia watershed, Cyprus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Gkilimanakis, Eleftherios; Loukas, Athanasios

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study which was performed within working group 4 in the FloodFreq COST Action is to assess and quantify changes in daily streamflow and subsequent flood response modelling due to potential climate change in Yermasoyia watershed, Cyprus. Eight statistical downscaling methods are used to estimate historical and future daily precipitation and temperature timeseries. Four methods are based on change factors and four are bias correction methods and these methods are used to downscale precipitation and temperature output from fifteen RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project. Several well-known lumped hydrological model structures (such as the GR4J, the IHACRES models, and the AWBM) are applied to estimate the daily streamflows. Performance of the models is evaluated with the use of fit statistics or metrics for calibration and validation periods using the split sample test. A set of flood indices are derived from the daily simulated streamflows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing the periods 1960-1990 and 2070-2100. The results show that both the magnitude and the volume of annual peakflows is decreasing fow all examined scenarios, downscaling methods and employed hydrological models.

  12. Estimation of road profile variability from measured vehicle responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fauriat, W.; Mattrand, C.; Gayton, N.; Beakou, A.; Cembrzynski, T.

    2016-05-01

    When assessing the statistical variability of fatigue loads acting throughout the life of a vehicle, the question of the variability of road roughness naturally arises, as both quantities are strongly related. For car manufacturers, gathering information on the environment in which vehicles evolve is a long and costly but necessary process to adapt their products to durability requirements. In the present paper, a data processing algorithm is proposed in order to estimate the road profiles covered by a given vehicle, from the dynamic responses measured on this vehicle. The algorithm based on Kalman filtering theory aims at solving a so-called inverse problem, in a stochastic framework. It is validated using experimental data obtained from simulations and real measurements. The proposed method is subsequently applied to extract valuable statistical information on road roughness from an existing load characterisation campaign carried out by Renault within one of its markets.

  13. Forest tree responses to extreme drought and some biotic events: Towards a selection according to hazard tolerance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bréda, Nathalie; Badeau, Vincent

    2008-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some extreme events could affect forest ecosystems. Forest tree response can be analysed using dendroecological methods, as tree-ring widths are strongly controlled by climatic or biotic events. Years with such events induce similar tree responses and are called pointer years. They can result from extreme climatic events like frost, a heat wave, spring water logging, drought or insect damage… Forest tree species showed contrasting responses to climatic hazards, depending on their sensitivity to water shortage or temperature hardening, as illustrated from our dendrochronological database. For foresters, a drought or a pest disease is an extreme event if visible and durable symptoms are induced (leaf discolouration, leaf loss, perennial organs mortality, tree dieback and mortality). These symptoms here are shown, lagging one or several years behind a climatic or biotic event, from forest decline cases in progress since the 2003 drought or attributed to previous severe droughts or defoliations in France. Tree growth or vitality recovery is illustrated, and the functional interpretation of the long lasting memory of trees is discussed. A coupled approach linking dendrochronology and ecophysiology helps in discussing vulnerability of forest stands, and suggests management advices in order to mitigate extreme drought and cope with selective mortality.

  14. Carbon Management Response curves: estimates of temporal soil carbon dynamics.

    PubMed

    West, Tristram O; Marland, Gregg; King, Anthony W; Post, Wilfred M; Jain, Atul K; Andrasko, Kenneth

    2004-04-01

    Measurement of the change in soil carbon that accompanies a change in land use (e.g., forest to agriculture) or management (e.g., conventional tillage to no-till) can be complex and expensive, may require reference plots, and is subject to the variability of statistical sampling and short-term variability in weather. In this paper, we develop Carbon Management Response (CMR) curves that could be used as an alternative to in situ measurements. The CMR curves developed here are based on quantitative reviews of existing global analyses and field observations of changes in soil carbon. The curves show mean annual rates of soil carbon change, estimated time to maximum rates of change, and estimated time to a new soil carbon steady state following the initial change in management. We illustrate how CMR curves could be used in a carbon accounting framework while effectively addressing a number of potential policy issues commonly associated with carbon accounting. We find that CMR curves provide a transparent means to account for changes in soil carbon accumulation and loss rates over time, and also provide empirical relationships that might be used in the development or validation of ecological or Earth systems models. PMID:15453404

  15. Changes in grassland ecosystem function due to extreme rainfall events: implications for responses to climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is causing measurable changes in precipitation patterns. Most climate change scenarios forecast continuing increases in extreme precipitation patterns for North American terrestrial ecosystems, manifest as larger precipitation event...

  16. General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

    2008-12-01

    The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

  17. Local mapping of detector response for reliable quantum state estimation.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Merlin; Karpiński, Michał; Smith, Brian J

    2014-01-01

    Improved measurement techniques are central to technological development and foundational scientific exploration. Quantum physics relies on detectors sensitive to non-classical features of systems, enabling precise tests of physical laws and quantum-enhanced technologies including precision measurement and secure communications. Accurate detector response calibration for quantum-scale inputs is key to future research and development in these cognate areas. To address this requirement, quantum detector tomography has been recently introduced. However, this technique becomes increasingly challenging as the complexity of the detector response and input space grow in a number of measurement outcomes and required probe states, leading to further demands on experiments and data analysis. Here we present an experimental implementation of a versatile, alternative characterization technique to address many-outcome quantum detectors that limits the input calibration region and does not involve numerical post processing. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, the calibrated detector is subsequently used to estimate non-classical photon number states. PMID:25019300

  18. Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extreme summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

    2014-10-01

    The importance and consequences of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. In the summer of 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, there were unusually high air temperatures (the fifth warmest summer over a 65-year period) and record low precipitation (the lowest over a 65-year period). These abnormal conditions were associated with substantial desiccation of the Sphagnum layer and a reduced net Sphagnum CO2 sink but did not affect net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this wet-sedge arctic tundra ecosystem. Microbial biomass, NH4+ availability, gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were generally greater during this extreme summer. The cumulative ecosystem CO2 sink in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, suggesting that vascular plants were able to compensate for Sphagnum CO2 uptake, despite the impact on other functions and structure such as desiccation of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem CO2 sink over a five summer record (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer (~70% lower), directly following the unusually warm and dry summer, rather than during the extreme summer. This sink reduction cannot solely be attributed to the potential damage to mosses, which typically contribute ~40% of the entire ecosystem CO2 sink. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative CO2 sink occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggests a substantial resilience of this tundra ecosystem to at least an isolated extreme event. Overall, these results show a complex response of the CO2 sink and its sub-components to atypically warm and dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events requires further investigation.

  19. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-04-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs , , , ), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate-change impacts. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline.

  20. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    PubMed Central

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere 1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions 1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., 1,3–5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts 3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21st century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. PMID:24015153

  1. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2012-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.

  2. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming.

    PubMed

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-04-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere (1,2), raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions (1,3). Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., (1,3-5)), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts (3,6,7). We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21(st) century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. PMID:24015153

  3. Materials response under extreme conditions: a path to materials science above 1000 GPa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remington, Bruce

    2005-07-01

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures (10-100 GPa) and strain rates (1.e6 -- 1.e8 1/s) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. [1] A quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure (shockless) drive is being developed on the Omega laser. [2] Constitutive models for solid-state strength under these conditions are tested with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples. [3] Lattice compression, phase, and temperature are deduced from extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements, from which the shock-induced alpha-omega phase transition in Ti is inferred to occur on sub-nanosec time scales. [4] Time resolved lattice response and phase can be inferred from dynamic x-ray diffraction measurements, where the elastic-plastic (1D-3D) lattice relaxation in shocked Cu is shown to occur promptly (sub-nsec). [5] Large-scale MD simulations have elucidated the microscopic dynamics that underlie the 3D lattice relaxation. [6] Deformation mechanisms, such as the slip-twinning transition in shocked single-crystal Cu, are identified by examining the residual microstructure in recovered samples. [7] Designs will be shown for reaching much higher pressures, (greater than 1000 GPa), in the solid state on the NIF laser. [8] *This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-ENG-48. [1] B.A. Remington et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2587 (2004). [2] J. Edwards et al., PRL 92, 075002 (2004). [3] K.T. Lorenz et al., PoP, in press (May, 2005). [4] B. Yaakobi et al., PRL 92, 095504 (2004). [5] A. Loveridge-Smith et al., PRL 86, 2349 (2001). [6] E.M. Bringa et al., Nature, submitted (March, 2005). [7] M.S. Schneider et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2633 (2004). [8] B.A. Remington et al., in press, ApSS 298 (July, 2005).

  4. Bioenergetic response of the extreme thermoacidophile Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses

    SciTech Connect

    Peeples, T.L.; Kelly, R.M.

    1995-06-01

    The bioenergetic response of the extremely thermoacidophilic archaeon Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses was examined. Continuous cultures (pH 2.0, 70{degrees}C, and dilution rate of 0.05h{sup {minus}1}) in which the levels of Casamino Acids and ferrous iron in growth media were reduced by a step change of 25 to 50% resulted in higher levels of several proteins. At 70{degrees}C under optimal growth conditions, M. sedula was typically found to have a {triangle}p of approximately -190 to -200{sub m}V, the result of an intracellular {sub p}H of 5.4 (extracellular {sub p}H, 2.0) and a {triangle}{Psi} of +40 to +50 {sub m}V, (positive inside). After cells had been shifted to either 80 or 85{degrees}C, {triangle}{Psi} decreased to nearly 0 {sub m}V and internal {sub p}H approached 4.0 within 4 h of the shift; respiratory activity, as evidenced by iron speciation in parallel temperature-shifted cultures on iron pyrite, had ceased by this point. If cultures shifted from ;70 to 80{degrees}C were shifted back to 70{degrees}C after 4 h, cells were able to regain pyrite oxidation capacity and internal {sub p}H increased to nearly normal levels after 13 h. However, {triangle}{Psi} remained close to 9 {sub m}V, possibly the result of enhanced ionic exchange with media upon thermal damage to cell membranes. Further, when M. sedula was subjected to an intermediate temperature shift from 73 to 79{degrees}C, an increase in pyrite dissolution (ferric iron levels doubled) over that of the unshifted control at 73{degrees}C was noted. The improvement in leaching was attributed to the synergistic effect of chemical and biological factors. As such, periodic exposure to higher temperatures, followed by a suitable recovery period, may provide a basis for improving bioleaching rates of acidophilic chemolithotrophs. 38 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Estimating Derived Response Levels at the Savannah River Site for Use with Emergency Response Models

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-12-06

    Emergency response computer models at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are coupled with real-time meteorological data to estimate dose to individuals downwind of accidental radioactive releases. Currently, these models estimate doses for inhalation and shine pathways, but do not consider dose due to ingestion of contaminated food products. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed derived intervention levels (DIL) which refer to the radionuclide-specific concentration in food present throughout the relevant period of time, with no intervention, that could lead to an individual receiving a radiation dose equal to the protective action guide. In the event of an emergency, concentrations in various food types are compared with these levels to make interdictions decisions. Prior to monitoring results being available, concentrations in the environmental media (i.e. soil), called derived response levels (DRLs), can be estimated from the DILs and directly compared with computer output to provide preliminary guidance as to whether intervention is necessary. Site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) are developed for ingestion pathways pertinent to SRS: milk, meat, fish, grain, produce, and beverage. This provides decision-makers with an additional tool for use immediately following an accident prior to the acquisition of food monitoring data.

  6. Assessing item fit for unidimensional item response theory models using residuals from estimated item response functions.

    PubMed

    Haberman, Shelby J; Sinharay, Sandip; Chon, Kyong Hee

    2013-07-01

    Residual analysis (e.g. Hambleton & Swaminathan, Item response theory: principles and applications, Kluwer Academic, Boston, 1985; Hambleton, Swaminathan, & Rogers, Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) is a popular method to assess fit of item response theory (IRT) models. We suggest a form of residual analysis that may be applied to assess item fit for unidimensional IRT models. The residual analysis consists of a comparison of the maximum-likelihood estimate of the item characteristic curve with an alternative ratio estimate of the item characteristic curve. The large sample distribution of the residual is proved to be standardized normal when the IRT model fits the data. We compare the performance of our suggested residual to the standardized residual of Hambleton et al. (Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) in a detailed simulation study. We then calculate our suggested residuals using data from an operational test. The residuals appear to be useful in assessing the item fit for unidimensional IRT models. PMID:25106393

  7. Preventing Violent Extremism and "Not in My Name": Theatrical Representation, Artistic Responsibility and Shared Vulnerability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartlett, Alice

    2011-01-01

    This paper draws on my own recent experience of local artistic engagement with the British government's counter-terrorism strategy, Prevent(ing Violent Extremism). "Not in My Name" uses verbatim theatre techniques to negotiate dialogue within and across communities around a controversial agenda, and has received national acclaim for its innovative…

  8. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  9. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

    2014-03-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  10. Dynamic Response of Watershed Subsurface Systems to Extreme Precipitation Events - Implications for the 2013 Colorado Front Range Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henning, S. R.; Ge, S.

    2015-12-01

    In September 2013, the Boulder Creek watershed (BCW) was severely affected by a 1000-year precipitation event when 17 inches of rain - nearly the annual average - fell over Boulder, Colorado, USA in just eight days. This rainfall caused an unprecedented flood within the BCW. While the enormous amount of water that fell appeared to have left within days, we hypothesize that a majority of the water that fell during the event was not discharged via surface runoff, but infiltrated into the subsurface. This study aims to understand how the subsurface responds to extreme precipitation events by quantifying the volume of precipitation that infiltrates into the vadose zone, the change in subsurface water storage, and the spatial and temporal scale of these effects as caused by extreme events. This study focuses on a small drainage basin that lies within the BCW. This site is actively monitored and provides data of importance for hydrologic modeling. The data include groundwater elevation, soil moisture, stream discharge, and precipitation records. The hydrologic structure of the basin consists of a thin, sandy soil layer that caps weathered regolith and saprolite sourced from underlying crystalline basement bedrock. We use the HYDRUS model to numerically solve the Richards equation for variably saturated flow to simulate 2D groundwater flow both below the groundwater table and in the vadose zone. Average annual precipitation values and groundwater elevation measurements are used to estimate the initial subsurface conditions prior to the event. Atmospheric boundary conditions estimated from meteorological stations are then applied to the top of the model to simulate the extreme event. Preliminary results indicate that the extreme event led to a rise in the groundwater table of up to a meter at low-lying elevations near basin drainages and up to two meters below hillslopes that persisted for over a month after the rain stopped.

  11. Bioenergetic Response of the Extreme Thermoacidophile Metallosphaera sedula to Thermal and Nutritional Stresses

    PubMed Central

    Peeples, T. L.; Kelly, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    The bioenergetic response of the extremely thermoacidophilic archaeon Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses was examined. Continuous cultures (pH 2.0, 70(deg)C, and dilution rate of 0.05 h(sup-1)) in which the levels of Casamino Acids and ferrous iron in growth media were reduced by a step change of 25 to 50% resulted in higher levels of several proteins, including a 62-kDa protein immunologically related to the molecular chaperone designated thermophilic factor 55 in Sulfolobus shibatae (J. D. Trent, J. Osipiuk, and T. Pinkau, J. Bacteriol. 172:1478-1484, 1990), on sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gels. The 62-kDa protein was also noted at elevated levels in cells that had been shifted from 70 to either 80 or 85(deg)C. The proton motive force ((Delta)p), transmembrane pH ((Delta)pH), and membrane potential ((Delta)(psi)) were determined for samples obtained from continuous cultures (pH 2.0, 70(deg)C, and dilution rate of 0.05 h(sup-1)) and incubated under nutritionally and/or thermally stressed and unstressed conditions. At 70(deg)C under optimal growth conditions, M. sedula was typically found to have a (Delta)p of approximately -190 to -200 mV, the result of an intracellular pH of 5.4 (extracellular pH, 2.0) and a (Delta)(psi) of +40 to +50 mV (positive inside). After cells had been shifted to either 80 or 85(deg)C, (Delta)(psi) decreased to nearly 0 mV and internal pH approached 4.0 within 4 h of the shift; respiratory activity, as evidenced by iron speciation in parallel temperature-shifted cultures on iron pyrite, had ceased by this point. If cultures shifted from 70 to 80(deg)C were shifted back to 70(deg)C after 4 h, cells were able to regain pyrite oxidation capacity and internal pH increased to nearly normal levels after 13 h. However, (Delta)(psi) remained close to 0 mV, possibly the result of enhanced ionic exchange with media upon thermal damage to cell membranes. Further, when M. sedula was subjected to an intermediate

  12. Upper extremity muscle tone and response of tidal volume during manually assisted breathing for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation

    PubMed Central

    Morino, Akira; Shida, Masahiro; Tanaka, Masashi; Sato, Kimihiro; Seko, Toshiaki; Ito, Shunsuke; Ogawa, Shunichi; Yokoi, Yuka; Takahashi, Naoaki

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of the present study was to examine, in patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation, if the response of tidal volume during manually assisted breathing is dependent upon both upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity of manually assisted breathing. [Subjects] We recruited 13 patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation, and assessed their upper extremity muscle tone using the modified Ashworth scale (MAS). The subjects were assigned to either the low MAS group (MAS≤2, n=7) or the high MAS group (MAS≥3, n=6). [Methods] The manually assisted breathing technique was applied at a pressure of 2 kgf and 4 kgf. A split-plot ANOVA was performed to compare the tidal volume of each pressure during manually assisted breathing between the low and the high MAS groups. [Results] Statistical analysis showed there were main effects of the upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity of the manually assisted breathing technique. There was no interaction between these factors. [Conclusion] Our findings reveal that the tidal volume during the manually assisted breathing technique for patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation depends upon the patient’s upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity. PMID:26357431

  13. On Latent Trait Estimation in Multidimensional Compensatory Item Response Models.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chun

    2015-06-01

    Making inferences from IRT-based test scores requires accurate and reliable methods of person parameter estimation. Given an already calibrated set of item parameters, the latent trait could be estimated either via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or using Bayesian methods such as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation or expected a posteriori (EAP) estimation. In addition, Warm's (Psychometrika 54:427-450, 1989) weighted likelihood estimation method was proposed to reduce the bias of the latent trait estimate in unidimensional models. In this paper, we extend the weighted MLE method to multidimensional models. This new method, denoted as multivariate weighted MLE (MWLE), is proposed to reduce the bias of the MLE even for short tests. MWLE is compared to alternative estimators (i.e., MLE, MAP and EAP) and shown, both analytically and through simulations studies, to be more accurate in terms of bias than MLE while maintaining a similar variance. In contrast, Bayesian estimators (i.e., MAP and EAP) result in biased estimates with smaller variability. PMID:24604245

  14. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover.

    PubMed

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-05-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica. PMID:26064653

  15. An integrated approach for identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall events and estimating IDF curves in Southern Ontario, Canada: Incorporating radar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixao, Edson; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader; Shephard, Mark W.; Auld, Heather; Klaassen, Joan; Smith, Graham

    2015-09-01

    Reliable extreme rainfall information is required for many applications including infrastructure design, management of water resources, and planning for weather-related emergencies in urban and rural areas. In this study, in situ TBRG sub-daily rainfall rate observations have been supplemented with weather radar information to better capture the spatial and temporal variability of heavy rainfall events regionally. Comparison of extreme rainfall events show that the absolute differences between the rain gauge and radar generally increase with increasing rainfall. Better agreement between the two observations is found when comparing the collocated radar and TBRG annual maximum values. The median difference is <18% for the annual maximum rainfall values ⩽50 mm. The median of difference of IDF estimates obtained through the Gumbel distribution for 10-year return period values computed from TBRG and radar are also found to be 4%. The overall results of this analysis demonstrates the potential value of incorporating remotely sensed radar with traditional point source TBRG network observations to provide additional insight on extreme rainfall events regionally, especially in terms of identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall. The radar observations are particularly useful in areas where there is insufficient TBRG station density to statistically capture the extreme rainfall events.

  16. Modelling Tradeoffs Evolution in Multipurpose Water Systems Operation in Response to Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, E.; Gazzotti, P.; Amigoni, F.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2015-12-01

    Multipurpose water resource systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of the operating objectives, which - under steady state climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions - is supposed to ensure a fair and/or efficient balance among the conflicting interests. Extreme variability in the system's drivers might affect operators' risk aversion and force a change in the tradeoff. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of operators' behavior and the associated system's performance. In this study, we explore how the selection of different optimal tradeoffs among the operating objectives is linked to the variations of the boundary conditions, such as, for example, drifting rainfall season or remarkable changes in crop and energy prices. We argue that tradeoff selection is driven by recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming on one of the operating objective target value should push the tradeoff toward the disadvantaged objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operators' tradeoff selection process. We map the selection onto a multi lateral negotiation process, where different multiple, virtual agents optimize different operating objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise on the operating policy. The agent's rigidity in each negotiation round is determined by the recent system performances according to the specific objective it represents. The negotiation follows a set-based egocentric monotonic concession protocol: at each negotiation step an agent incrementally adds some options to the set of its acceptable compromises and (possibly) accepts lower and lower satisfying policies until an agreement is achieved. We apply this reiterated negotiation framework on the regulated Lake Como, Italy, simulating the lake dam operation and its recurrent updates over the last 50 years. The operation aims to balance shoreline flood prevention and irrigation

  17. Bayesian Estimation of Multi-Unidimensional Graded Response IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuo, Tzu-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Item response theory (IRT) has gained an increasing popularity in large-scale educational and psychological testing situations because of its theoretical advantages over classical test theory. Unidimensional graded response models (GRMs) are useful when polytomous response items are designed to measure a unified latent trait. They are limited in…

  18. Polarization response in extreme nonlinear optics: when can the semiclassical approach be used?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogatskaya, A. V.; Volkova, E. A.; Kharin, V. Yu; Popov, A. M.

    2016-04-01

    Availability of the semiclassical approach in strong-field physics and extreme nonlinear optics is analyzed. It is found that it is valid for calculation of the emission to the initially populated bound state only if population of this state is close to unity during the pulse and in the after pulse regime. If the initial level is depleted, the semiclassical approach fails and should be replaced by quantum-electrodynamical calculations. Also it is demonstrated that the bremsstrahlung spectrum cannot be correctly described in the frames of the semiclassical approach.

  19. Responsive Stabilization of Nanoparticles for Extreme Salinity and High-Temperature Reservoir Applications.

    PubMed

    Ranka, Mikhil; Brown, Paul; Hatton, T Alan

    2015-09-01

    Colloidal stabilization of nanoparticles under extreme salinity and high temperature conditions is a key challenge in the development of next generation technologies for subsurface reservoir characterization and oil recovery. Polyelectrolytes have been investigated as nanoparticle stabilizers, but typically fail at high ionic strengths and elevated temperatures due to excessive charge screening and dehydration. We report an approach to nanoparticle stabilization that overcomes these limitations, and exploits the antipolyelectrolyte phenomenon, in which screening of intrachain electrostatic interactions causes a polyzwitterion chain to undergo a structural transition from a collapsed globule to a more open coil-like regime with increases in ionic strength and temperature. Small-angle neutron scattering on a model zwitterionic polymer in solution indicated an increase in both radius of gyration and excluded volume parameter of the polymer with increases in ionic strength and temperature. The model zwitterion was subsequently incorporated within a polymeric stabilizer for nanoparticles under harsh reservoir conditions, and used to functionalize hydrophilic (silica) as well as hydrophobic (polystyrene) nanoparticles. Long-term colloidal stability was achieved at salt concentrations up to 120,000 mg/dm3 at 90 °C, approximately twice the stability limit previously reported in the literature. The approach can be broadly generalized to a large class of synthetic polyzwitterions, and can be adapted to a wide variety of other colloidal systems in which demands placed by extreme salinity and temperature conditions must be met. PMID:26278070

  20. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird

    PubMed Central

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R.; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C.; Hilton, Geoff M.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world’s biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013–14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012–2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013–14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013–14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  1. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    PubMed

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  2. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover

    PubMed Central

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982–2013: range 11.3–65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1–32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica. PMID:26064653

  3. Methodology for estimating thoracic impact response in frontal crash tests.

    PubMed

    Thor, Craig P; Gabler, Hampton C

    2007-01-01

    This study has investigated the feasibility of estimating chest acceleration from the pelvic acceleration and shoulder belt forces measured on a vehicle occupant exposed to a frontal crash. The method of estimating chest acceleration is based upon a simple two-mass one-dimensional model of a vehicle occupant in which pelvic acceleration and shoulder belt force are applied as forcing functions. The predictive power of the model was evaluated by comparing the estimated and measured chest acceleration of 18 Hybrid-III crash test dummies subjected to 56 km/hr full frontal barrier crash tests. The crashtest dummies were restrained by airbags and three-point belt systems with pretensioners and load-limiting shoulder belts. The combined loads exerted on the chest by the pelvis and the shoulder belts were shown to be a reasonable estimate of force on the chest early in the crash event prior to significant airbag loading. PMID:17487104

  4. Tolerance and responsive gene expression of Sogatella furcifera under extreme temperature stresses are altered by its vectored plant virus.

    PubMed

    Xu, Donglin; Zhong, Ting; Feng, Wendi; Zhou, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), a newly emerged fijivirus causing great loss to rice production in eastern and southeastern Asian countries in recent years, is efficiently transmitted by a rice pest, white-backed planthopper (WBPH, Sogatella furcifera) in a persistent, circulative propagative manner and can be considered as an insect virus. In this study, SRBSDV infection in WBPH was found to increase the vector's death rate under extreme cold stress but improve its survival rate under extreme heat stress. Digital gene expression profiling based on RNA-Seq revealed different gene regulation patterns in WBPH under viral and/or temperature stress. Under cold stress, the virus infection upregulated 1540 genes and downregulated 131 genes in the insect, most of which were related to membrane properties and biological processes of actin and cytoskeleton; whereas under heat stress, it upregulated 363 genes and downregulated 548 genes, most of which were associated to metabolism and intracellular organelles. Several types of stress-responsive genes involving intestinal mucin, cuticle protein, ubiquitin protease, immune response, RNA interference and heat shock response, were largely upregulated under cold stress, but largely downregulated under heat stress, by SRBSDV infection. Our results suggest two distinct mechanisms of virus-altered vector insect tolerance to temperature stress. PMID:27531640

  5. Tolerance and responsive gene expression of Sogatella furcifera under extreme temperature stresses are altered by its vectored plant virus

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Donglin; Zhong, Ting; Feng, Wendi; Zhou, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), a newly emerged fijivirus causing great loss to rice production in eastern and southeastern Asian countries in recent years, is efficiently transmitted by a rice pest, white-backed planthopper (WBPH, Sogatella furcifera) in a persistent, circulative propagative manner and can be considered as an insect virus. In this study, SRBSDV infection in WBPH was found to increase the vector’s death rate under extreme cold stress but improve its survival rate under extreme heat stress. Digital gene expression profiling based on RNA-Seq revealed different gene regulation patterns in WBPH under viral and/or temperature stress. Under cold stress, the virus infection upregulated 1540 genes and downregulated 131 genes in the insect, most of which were related to membrane properties and biological processes of actin and cytoskeleton; whereas under heat stress, it upregulated 363 genes and downregulated 548 genes, most of which were associated to metabolism and intracellular organelles. Several types of stress-responsive genes involving intestinal mucin, cuticle protein, ubiquitin protease, immune response, RNA interference and heat shock response, were largely upregulated under cold stress, but largely downregulated under heat stress, by SRBSDV infection. Our results suggest two distinct mechanisms of virus-altered vector insect tolerance to temperature stress. PMID:27531640

  6. Electrically evoked long loop responses (LLR): normative data for upper and lower extremities.

    PubMed

    Deletis, V; Beric, A

    1989-01-01

    Long loop responses can be obtained repeatedly in all neurologically healthy subjects with low variability of onset and peak latencies. Long loop responses showed characteristic features separate from microreflexes of Bickford. Normative data will help us to elucidate the characteristic alterations of these reflexes in different pathologies which involve somatosensory pyramidal and extrapyramidal systems. PMID:2606069

  7. ESTIMATION OF RESPONSE-SPECTRAL VALUES AS FUNCTIONS OF MAGNITUDE, DISTANCE, AND SITE CONDITIONS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Joyner, W.B.; Boore, D.M.

    1983-01-01

    Horizontal pseudo-velocity response was analyzed for twelve shallow earthquakes in western North America. Estimation of response-spectral values was related to magnitude, distance and site conditions. Errors in the methods are analyzed.

  8. Characterising the Geomorphic Response of a Tropical Mega-River to an Extreme, Cyclone Induced, Flood Event.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackney, C. R.; Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Parsons, D. R.; Aalto, R. E.; Nicholas, A. P.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme events have the ability to induce extensive geomorphic change in fluvial systems as a result of elevated discharge levels, increased sediment transport capacity and associated changes in sheer stresses along channel boundaries. Understanding how rapid rises in water levels change flow structures and channel boundary roughness is key to understanding the relative significance of large events in terms of driving local and system wide geomorphic change. However, capturing the fluvial process dynamics in operation during such events is technically and logistically difficult, especially in the world's largest rivers. During September 2013, on the peak of the monsoon, a series of tropical cyclones induced a large flood event within the Mekong basin. At the peak of the flood wave, discharge measured ~60000 m3/s; the 11th largest flood on record. Pre and post event high resolution topographic surveys of parts of the bed and bank were captured using a combination of contiguous multibeam echo sounding (MBES) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) during the event. Simultaneously detailed measurements of cross sectional and near bank flow structure were acquired using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp). Together, these unique datasets can be used to characterise and assess the geomorphic impact of a cyclone induced extreme flood event on the Mekong. We show how flow structures in the near bank region evolve with stage during the extreme event and how the associated geomorphic response is modulated by the distinctive process dynamics of a mega-river.

  9. An Application of the Peaks Over Threshold Method to Estimate Extreme Winds Over the South Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, N. P.; Camargo, R. D.

    2014-12-01

    Given the growing investment in coastal activities, such as industrial and residential settings, proper understanding of oceanographic and meteorological phenomena over such areas became very important. The winds play a major role in this context, being the main source of energy for gravity waves generation in the ocean, and determining the characterization of severe weather conditions. In this study, a statistical analysis of extreme values was applied to wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP-I) grid points with 2.5º of spacial resolution and results from a simulation with the BRAMS model in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean region with 0.25º of resolution. The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) technique was applied and the analysis focused on the behavior of extreme values according to the wind direction and the resolution of the original data. The period of analysis goes from 1982 to 2011 and the domain goes from 40ºS to 5ºN latitude and 70ºW to 10ºW longitude. The POT method demanded that peaks chosen for analysis were independent and identically distributed and a minimum interval of 48 hours was given to separate the subset sampled for analysis. The peak excesses above a determined threshold were adjusted to the Generalized Pareto Distribution and extrapolation to 50 years return periods was built in each grid point. General large-scale patterns of 50-yr return values were similar for both datasets used. However, more details were verified in the analysis of simulation results with BRAMS, given the dependence of the methodology to the resolution of the original set. Thus, the greater detailing suggests the inclusion of mesoscale features originating these extreme values. In the northern part of the domain, extreme winds were weaker and prevailed from north, northeast and east, given the influence of the trade winds and the positioning of the South Atlantic Subtropical High. On the

  10. Fluvial response to debris associated with mass wasting during extreme floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Andrew J.

    1990-07-01

    Evolution of channels and bottomlands in mountain valleys of the central Appalachians is strongly influenced by debris supplied to stream channels from mass wasting during extreme storms. The type of change observed varies with basin scale and storm characteristics. Along channels receiving coarse sediment from debris avalanches or debris flows during Hurricane Camille in 1969, pure scour occurred in drainage areas less than 1 km2 and gradients steeper than 0.1; in Hurricane Camille and in the June 1949 storm, mixed erosion and deposition with continuous reworking of the valley floor was observed along streams with drainage areas up to 65 km2. In basins larger than 100 km2, valley-floor reworking associated with influx of debris during both storms was localized and discontinuous. In the South Branch Potomac River basin in West Virginia, intense precipitation within a small contributing area generated scores of debris slides and avalanches in June 1949; debris transported by tributaries to main valleys exceeded the competence of the larger channels and formed new bottomland. Long-duration moderate-intensity precipitation in November 1985 generated fewer debris avalanches. Flood peaks associated with a larger contributing area along the main valleys were 80% to 190% larger than in 1949 and caused extensive channel and flood-plain erosion, including truncation and removal of 1949 deposits. At some locations relict debris deposits may have influenced hydraulic conditions and affected patterns of erosion and deposition during the 1985 storm. Sequential occurrence of extreme storms with different hydrologic characteristics creates a bottomland mosaic of surfaces with varying elevations and textures.

  11. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. PMID:27341115

  12. Testing and Modeling the Responses of Hybrid III Crash-Dummy Lower Extremity under High-speed Vertical Loading.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Feng; Dong, Liqiang; Jin, Xin; Jiang, Binhui; Kalra, Anil; Shen, Ming; Yang, King H

    2015-11-01

    Anthropometric test devices (ATDs), such as the Hybrid III crash-test dummy, have been used to simulate lowerextremity responses to military personnel subjected to loading conditions from anti-vehicular (AV) landmine blasts. Numerical simulations [e.g., finite element (FE) analysis] of such high-speed vertical loading on ATD parts require accurate material parameters that are dependent on strain rate. This study presents a combined experimental and computational study to calibrate the rate-dependent properties of three materials on the lower extremities of the Hybrid III dummy. The three materials are heelpad foam, foot skin, and lower-leg flesh, and each has properties that can affect simulation results of forces and moments transferred to the lower extremities. Specifically, the behavior of the heel-pad foam was directly calibrated through standard compression tests, and the properties of the foot skin and lower-leg flesh were calibrated based on an optimization procedure in which the material parameters were adjusted for best fit between the calculated force-deflection responses and least squares of the experimental data. The material models updated with strain-rate effects were then integrated into an ATD full-body FE model (FEM), which was used to simulate vertical impulsive loading responses at different speeds. Results of validations using this model demonstrated basic replication of experimentally obtained response patterns of the tibia. The bending moments matched those calculated from the experimental data 25-40% more accurately than those obtained from the original model, and axial forces were 60-90% more accurate. However, neither the original nor the modified models well captured whole-body response patterns, and further improvements are required. As a generalized approach, the optimization method presented in this paper can be applied to characterize material constants for a wide range of materials. PMID:26660755

  13. Kinematic constituents of the extreme head turn of Strix aluco estimated by means of CT-scanning.

    PubMed

    Grytsyshina, E E; Kuznetsov, A N; Panyutina, A A

    2016-01-01

    To analyze extreme sideways turn of the head in owls, a total fresh specimen of Strix aluco was frozen in respective posture and CT-scanned. The maximum turn to one side was found to be 360°, provided that the head is drawn into the shoulders. 160° of this full turn are ensured by the neck axial rotation (this includes ~90° twist of the head relative to epistropheus and, posterior to it, less than 15° per every cervical joint), and the rest 200° are ensured by combination of dorsal and lateral flexion. The 15° limit is overcome in five joints in respect of dorsiflexion, and in six joints in respect of lateral flexion. So large a degree of lateral mobility is unusual among birds, and is appreciated as a crucial adaptation to extreme head turning. PMID:27021365

  14. Estimating the Nominal Response Model under Nonnormal Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Preston, Kathleen Suzanne Johnson; Reise, Steven Paul

    2014-01-01

    The nominal response model (NRM), a much understudied polytomous item response theory (IRT) model, provides researchers the unique opportunity to evaluate within-item category distinctions. Polytomous IRT models, such as the NRM, are frequently applied to psychological assessments representing constructs that are unlikely to be normally…

  15. Estimating Rater Severity with Multilevel and Multidimensional Item Response Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-chung

    Traditional approaches to the investigation of the objectivity of ratings for constructed-response items are based on classical test theory, which is item-dependent and sample-dependent. Item response theory overcomes this drawback by decomposing item difficulties into genuine difficulties and rater severity. In so doing, objectivity of ability…

  16. Development of an artificial neural network based multi-model ensemble to estimate the northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: an application of extreme learning machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Shrivastava, Nitin Anand; Panigrahi, B. K.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2014-09-01

    The south peninsular part of India gets maximum amount of rainfall during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season [October to November (OND)] which is the primary source of water for the agricultural activities in this region. A nonlinear method viz., Extreme learning machine (ELM) has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products to make the multi-model ensemble (MME) based estimation of NEM rainfall (NEMR). The ELM is basically is an improved learning algorithm for the single feed-forward neural network (SLFN) architecture. The 27 year (1982-2008) lead-1 (using initial conditions of September for forecasting the mean rainfall of OND) hindcast runs (1982-2008) from seven GCM has been used to make MME. The improvement of the proposed method with respect to other regular MME (simple arithmetic mean of GCMs (EM) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions based MME) has been assessed through several skill metrics like Spread distribution, multiplicative bias, prediction errors, the yield of prediction, Pearson's and Kendal's correlation coefficient and Wilmort's index of agreement. The efficiency of ELM estimated rainfall is established by all the stated skill scores. The performance of ELM in extreme NEMR years, out of which 4 years are characterized by deficit rainfall and 5 years are identified as excess, is also examined. It is found that the ELM could expeditiously capture these extremes reasonably well as compared to the other MME approaches.

  17. Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear-plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g., 1000-year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) have shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme-surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea level data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the peaks-over-threshold method with HI (POTH) and the block maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical historical maxima (HMax) data, and over-a-threshold supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  18. Use of historical information in extreme surge frequency estimation: case of the marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2014-09-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g. 1000 year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) had shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea levels data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the Peaks-Over-Threshold method with HI (POTH) and the Block Maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical Historical Maxima (HMax) data, and Over a Threshold Supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  19. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  20. Estimation of springing response for 550 000 DWT ore carrier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenya, Christiaan Adika; Ren, Huilong; Li, Hui; Wang, Di

    2016-07-01

    The desire to benefit from economy of scale is one of the major driving forces behind the continuous growth in ship sizes. However, models of new large ships need to be thoroughly investigated to determine the carrier's response in waves. In this work, experimental and numerical assessments of the motion and load response of a 550,000 DWT ore carrier are performed using prototype ships with softer stiffness, and towing tank tests are conducted using a segmented model with two schemes of softer stiffness. Numerical analyses are performed employing both rigid body and linear hydroelasticity theories using an in-house program and a comparison is then made between experimental and numerical results to establish the influence of stiffness on the ore carrier's springing response. Results show that softer stiffness models can be used when studying the springing response of ships in waves.

  1. ESTIMATION OF AQUATIC SPECIES SENSITIVITY AND POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Determining species sensitivity and population-level responses of aquatic organisms to contaminants are critical components of criteria development and ecological risk assessment. To address data gaps in species sensitivity, the U.S. EPA developed the Interspecies Correlation Est...

  2. NEUROTOXIC EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AGENTS: DATA GAPS THAT CHALLENGE DOSE-RESPONSE ESTIMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxic effects of environmental agents: Data gaps that challenge dose-response estimation
    S Gutter*, P Mendola+, SG Selevan**, D Rice** (*UNC Chapel Hill; +US EPA, NHEERL; **US EPA, NCEA)

    Dose-response estimation is a critical feature of risk assessment. It can be...

  3. Bayesian Estimation of Graded Response Multilevel Models Using Gibbs Sampling: Formulation and Illustration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Natesan, Prathiba; Limbers, Christine; Varni, James W.

    2010-01-01

    The present study presents the formulation of graded response models in the multilevel framework (as nonlinear mixed models) and demonstrates their use in estimating item parameters and investigating the group-level effects for specific covariates using Bayesian estimation. The graded response multilevel model (GRMM) combines the formulation of…

  4. A Comparison Study of the Unidimensional IRT Estimation of Compensatory and Noncompensatory Multidimensional Item Response Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ackerman, Terry A.

    Concern has been expressed over the item response theory (IRT) assumption that a person's ability can be estimated in a unidimensional latent space. To examine whether or not the response to an item requires only a single latent ability, unidimensional ability estimates were compared for data generated from the multidimensional item response…

  5. An Analysis of Variance Approach for the Estimation of Response Time Distributions in Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Attali, Yigal

    2010-01-01

    Generalizability theory and analysis of variance methods are employed, together with the concept of objective time pressure, to estimate response time distributions and the degree of time pressure in timed tests. By estimating response time variance components due to person, item, and their interaction, and fixed effects due to item types and…

  6. Estimation of IRT Graded Response Models: Limited versus Full Information Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forero, Carlos G.; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2009-01-01

    The performance of parameter estimates and standard errors in estimating F. Samejima's graded response model was examined across 324 conditions. Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) was compared with a 3-stage estimator for categorical item factor analysis (CIFA) when the unweighted least squares method was used in CIFA's third stage. CIFA…

  7. Bayesian Estimation of Panel Data Fractional Response Models with Endogeneity: An Application to Standardized Test Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kessler, Lawrence M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as…

  8. Two Approaches to Estimation of Classification Accuracy Rate under Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lathrop, Quinn N.; Cheng, Ying

    2013-01-01

    Within the framework of item response theory (IRT), there are two recent lines of work on the estimation of classification accuracy (CA) rate. One approach estimates CA when decisions are made based on total sum scores, the other based on latent trait estimates. The former is referred to as the Lee approach, and the latter, the Rudner approach,…

  9. Responses of soil bacterial and fungal communities to extreme desiccation and rewetting.

    PubMed

    Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

    2013-11-01

    The microbial response to summer desiccation reflects adaptation strategies, setting the stage for a large rainfall-induced soil CO2 pulse upon rewetting, an important component of the ecosystem carbon budget. In three California annual grasslands, the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities were tracked over a summer season and in response to controlled rewetting of intact soil cores. Phylogenetic marker genes for bacterial (16S) and fungal (28S) RNA and DNA were sequenced, and the abundances of these genes and transcripts were measured. Although bacterial community composition differed among sites, all sites shared a similar response pattern of the present and potentially active bacterial community to dry-down and wet-up. In contrast, the fungal community was not detectably different among sites, and was largely unaffected by dry-down, showing marked resistance to dessication. The potentially active bacterial community changed significantly as summer dry-down progressed, then returned to pre-dry-down composition within several hours of rewetting, displaying spectacular resilience. Upon rewetting, transcript copies of bacterial rpoB genes increased consistently, reflecting rapid activity resumption. Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria were the most abundant phyla present and potentially active, and showed the largest changes in relative abundance. The relative increase (Actinobacteria) and decrease (Acidobacteria) with dry-down, and the reverse responses to rewetting reflected a differential response, which was conserved at the phylum level and consistent across sites. These contrasting desiccation-related bacterial life-strategies suggest that predicted changes in precipitation patterns may affect soil nutrient and carbon cycling by differentially impacting activity patterns of microbial communities. PMID:23823489

  10. Responses of soil bacterial and fungal communities to extreme desiccation and rewetting

    PubMed Central

    Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

    2013-01-01

    The microbial response to summer desiccation reflects adaptation strategies, setting the stage for a large rainfall-induced soil CO2 pulse upon rewetting, an important component of the ecosystem carbon budget. In three California annual grasslands, the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities were tracked over a summer season and in response to controlled rewetting of intact soil cores. Phylogenetic marker genes for bacterial (16S) and fungal (28S) RNA and DNA were sequenced, and the abundances of these genes and transcripts were measured. Although bacterial community composition differed among sites, all sites shared a similar response pattern of the present and potentially active bacterial community to dry-down and wet-up. In contrast, the fungal community was not detectably different among sites, and was largely unaffected by dry-down, showing marked resistance to dessication. The potentially active bacterial community changed significantly as summer dry-down progressed, then returned to pre-dry-down composition within several hours of rewetting, displaying spectacular resilience. Upon rewetting, transcript copies of bacterial rpoB genes increased consistently, reflecting rapid activity resumption. Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria were the most abundant phyla present and potentially active, and showed the largest changes in relative abundance. The relative increase (Actinobacteria) and decrease (Acidobacteria) with dry-down, and the reverse responses to rewetting reflected a differential response, which was conserved at the phylum level and consistent across sites. These contrasting desiccation-related bacterial life-strategies suggest that predicted changes in precipitation patterns may affect soil nutrient and carbon cycling by differentially impacting activity patterns of microbial communities. PMID:23823489