Amphetamine-induced sensitization and reward uncertainty similarly enhance incentive salience for conditioned cues

PubMed Central

Robinson, Mike J.F.; Anselme, Patrick; Suchomel, Kristen; Berridge, Kent C.

2015-01-01

Amphetamine and stress can sensitize mesolimbic dopamine-related systems. In Pavlovian autoshaping, repeated exposure to uncertainty of reward prediction can enhance motivated sign-tracking or attraction to a discrete reward-predicting cue (lever CS+), as well as produce cross-sensitization to amphetamine. However, it remains unknown how amphetamine-sensitization or repeated restraint stress interact with uncertainty in controlling CS+ incentive salience attribution reflected in sign-tracking. Here rats were tested in three successive phases. First, different groups underwent either induction of amphetamine sensitization or repeated restraint stress, or else were not sensitized or stressed as control groups (either saline injections only, or no stress or injection at all). All next received Pavlovian autoshaping training under either certainty conditions (100% CS-UCS association) or uncertainty conditions (50% CS-UCS association and uncertain reward magnitude). During training, rats were assessed for sign-tracking to the lever CS+ versus goal-tracking to the sucrose dish. Finally, all groups were tested for psychomotor sensitization of locomotion revealed by an amphetamine challenge. Our results confirm that reward uncertainty enhanced sign-tracking attraction toward the predictive CS+ lever, at the expense of goal-tracking. We also report that amphetamine sensitization promoted sign-tracking even in rats trained under CS-UCS certainty conditions, raising them to sign-tracking levels equivalent to the uncertainty group. Combining amphetamine sensitization and uncertainty conditions together did not add together to elevate sign-tracking further above the relatively high levels induced by either manipulation alone. In contrast, repeated restraint stress enhanced subsequent amphetamine-elicited locomotion, but did not enhance CS+ attraction. PMID:26076340

Amphetamine-induced sensitization and reward uncertainty similarly enhance incentive salience for conditioned cues.

PubMed

Robinson, Mike J F; Anselme, Patrick; Suchomel, Kristen; Berridge, Kent C

2015-08-01

Amphetamine and stress can sensitize mesolimbic dopamine-related systems. In Pavlovian autoshaping, repeated exposure to uncertainty of reward prediction can enhance motivated sign-tracking or attraction to a discrete reward-predicting cue (lever-conditioned stimulus; CS+), as well as produce cross-sensitization to amphetamine. However, it remains unknown how amphetamine sensitization or repeated restraint stress interact with uncertainty in controlling CS+ incentive salience attribution reflected in sign-tracking. Here rats were tested in 3 successive phases. First, different groups underwent either induction of amphetamine sensitization or repeated restraint stress, or else were not sensitized or stressed as control groups (either saline injections only, or no stress or injection at all). All next received Pavlovian autoshaping training under either certainty conditions (100% CS-UCS association) or uncertainty conditions (50% CS-UCS association and uncertain reward magnitude). During training, rats were assessed for sign-tracking to the CS+ lever versus goal-tracking to the sucrose dish. Finally, all groups were tested for psychomotor sensitization of locomotion revealed by an amphetamine challenge. Our results confirm that reward uncertainty enhanced sign-tracking attraction toward the predictive CS+ lever, at the expense of goal-tracking. We also reported that amphetamine sensitization promoted sign-tracking even in rats trained under CS-UCS certainty conditions, raising them to sign-tracking levels equivalent to the uncertainty group. Combining amphetamine sensitization and uncertainty conditions did not add together to elevate sign-tracking further above the relatively high levels induced by either manipulation alone. In contrast, repeated restraint stress enhanced subsequent amphetamine-elicited locomotion, but did not enhance CS+ attraction. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of impact-absorbing flooring in Swedish residential care facilities.

PubMed

Ryen, Linda; Svensson, Mikael

2016-06-01

Fall-related injuries among the elderly, specifically hip fractures, cause significant morbidity and mortality as well as imposing a substantial financial cost on the health care system. Impact-absorbing flooring has been advocated as an effective method for preventing hip fractures resulting from falls. This study identifies the cost-effectiveness of impact-absorbing flooring compared to standard flooring in residential care facilities for the elderly in a Swedish setting. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing impact-absorbing flooring to standard flooring using a Markov decision model. A societal perspective was adopted and incremental costs were compared to incremental gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Data on costs, probability transitions and health-related quality of life measures were retrieved from the published literature and from Swedish register data. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed through a Monte Carlo simulation. The base-case analysis indicates that the impact-absorbing flooring reduces costs and increases QALYs. When allowing for uncertainty we find that 60% of the simulations indicate that impact-absorbing flooring is cost-saving compared to standard flooring and an additional 20% that it has a cost per QALY below a commonly used threshold value : Using a modelling approach, we find that impact-absorbing flooring is a dominant strategy at the societal level considering that it can save resources and improve health in a vulnerable population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Thomas K., IV; Johnston, Christopher O.; Hosder, Serhat

2016-01-01

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

Approach for Uncertainty Propagation and Robust Design in CFD Using Sensitivity Derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putko, Michele M.; Newman, Perry A.; Taylor, Arthur C., III; Green, Lawrence L.

2001-01-01

This paper presents an implementation of the approximate statistical moment method for uncertainty propagation and robust optimization for a quasi 1-D Euler CFD (computational fluid dynamics) code. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed input variables, a first- and second-order statistical moment matching procedure is performed to approximate the uncertainty in the CFD output. Efficient calculation of both first- and second-order sensitivity derivatives is required. In order to assess the validity of the approximations, the moments are compared with statistical moments generated through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainties in the CFD input variables are also incorporated into a robust optimization procedure. For this optimization, statistical moments involving first-order sensitivity derivatives appear in the objective function and system constraints. Second-order sensitivity derivatives are used in a gradient-based search to successfully execute a robust optimization. The approximate methods used throughout the analyses are found to be valid when considering robustness about input parameter mean values.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the GFR MOX Fuel Subassembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lüley, J.; Vrban, B.; Čerba, Š.; Haščík, J.; Nečas, V.; Pelloni, S.

2014-04-01

We performed sensitivity and uncertainty analysis as well as benchmark similarity assessment of the MOX fuel subassembly designed for the Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor (GFR) as a representative material of the core. Material composition was defined for each assembly ring separately allowing us to decompose the sensitivities not only for isotopes and reactions but also for spatial regions. This approach was confirmed by direct perturbation calculations for chosen materials and isotopes. Similarity assessment identified only ten partly comparable benchmark experiments that can be utilized in the field of GFR development. Based on the determined uncertainties, we also identified main contributors to the calculation bias.

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with CASL Core Simulator VERA-CS

DOE PAGES

Brown, C. S.; Zhang, Hongbin

2016-05-24

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are important for nuclear reactor safety design and analysis. A 2x2 fuel assembly core design was developed and simulated by the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator (VERA-CS) coupled neutronics and thermal-hydraulics code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with VERA-CS was developed and a new toolkit was created to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with fourteen uncertain input parameters. Furthermore, the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surfacemore » temperature were chosen as the selected figures of merit. Pearson, Spearman, and partial correlation coefficients were considered for all of the figures of merit in sensitivity analysis and coolant inlet temperature was consistently the most influential parameter. We used parameters as inputs to the critical heat flux calculation with the W-3 correlation were shown to be the most influential on the MDNBR, maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surface temperature.« less

Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Clifford W.; Martin, Curtis E.

2015-08-01

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature;more » (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.« less

Application of identified sensitive physical parameters in reducing the uncertainty of numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Guodong; Mu, Mu

2016-04-01

An important source of uncertainty, which then causes further uncertainty in numerical simulations, is that residing in the parameters describing physical processes in numerical models. There are many physical parameters in numerical models in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, and it would cost a great deal to reduce uncertainties in all physical parameters. Therefore, finding a subset of these parameters, which are relatively more sensitive and important parameters, and reducing the errors in the physical parameters in this subset would be a far more efficient way to reduce the uncertainties involved in simulations. In this context, we present a new approach based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter (CNOP-P) method. The approach provides a framework to ascertain the subset of those relatively more sensitive and important parameters among the physical parameters. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamical global vegetation model was utilized to test the validity of the new approach. The results imply that nonlinear interactions among parameters play a key role in the uncertainty of numerical simulations in arid and semi-arid regions of China compared to those in northern, northeastern and southern China. The uncertainties in the numerical simulations were reduced considerably by reducing the errors of the subset of relatively more sensitive and important parameters. The results demonstrate that our approach not only offers a new route to identify relatively more sensitive and important physical parameters but also that it is viable to then apply "target observations" to reduce the uncertainties in model parameters.

Adjoint-Based Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Density and Composition: A User’s Guide

DOE PAGES

Favorite, Jeffrey A.; Perko, Zoltan; Kiedrowski, Brian C.; ...

2017-03-01

The ability to perform sensitivity analyses using adjoint-based first-order sensitivity theory has existed for decades. This paper provides guidance on how adjoint sensitivity methods can be used to predict the effect of material density and composition uncertainties in critical experiments, including when these uncertain parameters are correlated or constrained. Two widely used Monte Carlo codes, MCNP6 (Ref. 2) and SCALE 6.2 (Ref. 3), are both capable of computing isotopic density sensitivities in continuous energy and angle. Additionally, Perkó et al. have shown how individual isotope density sensitivities, easily computed using adjoint methods, can be combined to compute constrained first-order sensitivitiesmore » that may be used in the uncertainty analysis. This paper provides details on how the codes are used to compute first-order sensitivities and how the sensitivities are used in an uncertainty analysis. Constrained first-order sensitivities are computed in a simple example problem.« less

Approach for Input Uncertainty Propagation and Robust Design in CFD Using Sensitivity Derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putko, Michele M.; Taylor, Arthur C., III; Newman, Perry A.; Green, Lawrence L.

2002-01-01

An implementation of the approximate statistical moment method for uncertainty propagation and robust optimization for quasi 3-D Euler CFD code is presented. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed input variables, first- and second-order statistical moment procedures are performed to approximate the uncertainty in the CFD output. Efficient calculation of both first- and second-order sensitivity derivatives is required. In order to assess the validity of the approximations, these moments are compared with statistical moments generated through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainties in the CFD input variables are also incorporated into a robust optimization procedure. For this optimization, statistical moments involving first-order sensitivity derivatives appear in the objective function and system constraints. Second-order sensitivity derivatives are used in a gradient-based search to successfully execute a robust optimization. The approximate methods used throughout the analyses are found to be valid when considering robustness about input parameter mean values.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

Rainfall or parameter uncertainty? The power of sensitivity analysis on grouped factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Bauwens, Willy

2017-04-01

Hydrological models are typically used to study and represent (a part of) the hydrological cycle. In general, the output of these models mostly depends on their input rainfall and parameter values. Both model parameters and input precipitation however, are characterized by uncertainties and, therefore, lead to uncertainty on the model output. Sensitivity analysis (SA) allows to assess and compare the importance of the different factors for this output uncertainty. Hereto, the rainfall uncertainty can be incorporated in the SA by representing it as a probabilistic multiplier. Such multiplier can be defined for the entire time series, or several of these factors can be determined for every recorded rainfall pulse or for hydrological independent storm events. As a consequence, the number of parameters included in the SA related to the rainfall uncertainty can be (much) lower or (much) higher than the number of model parameters. Although such analyses can yield interesting results, it remains challenging to determine which type of uncertainty will affect the model output most due to the different weight both types will have within the SA. In this study, we apply the variance based Sobol' sensitivity analysis method to two different hydrological simulators (NAM and HyMod) for four diverse watersheds. Besides the different number of model parameters (NAM: 11 parameters; HyMod: 5 parameters), the setup of our sensitivity and uncertainty analysis-combination is also varied by defining a variety of scenarios including diverse numbers of rainfall multipliers. To overcome the issue of the different number of factors and, thus, the different weights of the two types of uncertainty, we build on one of the advantageous properties of the Sobol' SA, i.e. treating grouped parameters as a single parameter. The latter results in a setup with a single factor for each uncertainty type and allows for a straightforward comparison of their importance. In general, the results show a clear

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

PubMed Central

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-01-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

Sensitivity and uncertainty in crop water footprint accounting: a case study for the Yellow River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuo, L.; Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2014-06-01

Water Footprint Assessment is a fast-growing field of research, but as yet little attention has been paid to the uncertainties involved. This study investigates the sensitivity of and uncertainty in crop water footprint (in m3 t-1) estimates related to uncertainties in important input variables. The study focuses on the green (from rainfall) and blue (from irrigation) water footprint of producing maize, soybean, rice, and wheat at the scale of the Yellow River basin in the period 1996-2005. A grid-based daily water balance model at a 5 by 5 arcmin resolution was applied to compute green and blue water footprints of the four crops in the Yellow River basin in the period considered. The one-at-a-time method was carried out to analyse the sensitivity of the crop water footprint to fractional changes of seven individual input variables and parameters: precipitation (PR), reference evapotranspiration (ET0), crop coefficient (Kc), crop calendar (planting date with constant growing degree days), soil water content at field capacity (Smax), yield response factor (Ky) and maximum yield (Ym). Uncertainties in crop water footprint estimates related to uncertainties in four key input variables: PR, ET0, Kc, and crop calendar were quantified through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the sensitivities and uncertainties differ across crop types. In general, the water footprint of crops is most sensitive to ET0 and Kc, followed by the crop calendar. Blue water footprints were more sensitive to input variability than green water footprints. The smaller the annual blue water footprint is, the higher its sensitivity to changes in PR, ET0, and Kc. The uncertainties in the total water footprint of a crop due to combined uncertainties in climatic inputs (PR and ET0) were about ±20% (at 95% confidence interval). The effect of uncertainties in ET0was dominant compared to that of PR. The uncertainties in the total water footprint of a crop as a result of combined key input

Reducing Spatial Uncertainty Through Attentional Cueing Improves Contrast Sensitivity in Regions of the Visual Field With Glaucomatous Defects

PubMed Central

Phu, Jack; Kalloniatis, Michael; Khuu, Sieu K.

2018-01-01

Purpose Current clinical perimetric test paradigms present stimuli randomly to various locations across the visual field (VF), inherently introducing spatial uncertainty, which reduces contrast sensitivity. In the present study, we determined the extent to which spatial uncertainty affects contrast sensitivity in glaucoma patients by minimizing spatial uncertainty through attentional cueing. Methods Six patients with open-angle glaucoma and six healthy subjects underwent laboratory-based psychophysical testing to measure contrast sensitivity at preselected locations at two eccentricities (9.5° and 17.5°) with two stimulus sizes (Goldmann sizes III and V) under different cueing conditions: 1, 2, 4, or 8 points verbally cued. Method of Constant Stimuli and a single-interval forced-choice procedure were used to generate frequency of seeing (FOS) curves at locations with and without VF defects. Results At locations with VF defects, cueing minimizes spatial uncertainty and improves sensitivity under all conditions. The effect of cueing was maximal when one point was cued, and rapidly diminished when more points were cued (no change to baseline with 8 points cued). The slope of the FOS curve steepened with reduced spatial uncertainty. Locations with normal sensitivity in glaucomatous eyes had similar performance to that of healthy subjects. There was a systematic increase in uncertainty with the depth of VF loss. Conclusions Sensitivity measurements across the VF are negatively affected by spatial uncertainty, which increases with greater VF loss. Minimizing uncertainty can improve sensitivity at locations of deficit. Translational Relevance Current perimetric techniques introduce spatial uncertainty and may therefore underestimate sensitivity in regions of VF loss. PMID:29600116

Predictive Uncertainty And Parameter Sensitivity Of A Sediment-Flux Model: Nitrogen Flux and Sediment Oxygen Demand

EPA Science Inventory

Estimating model predictive uncertainty is imperative to informed environmental decision making and management of water resources. This paper applies the Generalized Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to examine parameter sensitivity and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation...

Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

2015-12-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TANK 19F FLOOR SAMPLE RESULTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.

2010-09-02

Representative sampling has been completed for characterization of the residual material on the floor of Tank 19F as per the statistical sampling plan developed by Harris and Shine. Samples from eight locations have been obtained from the tank floor and two of the samples were archived as a contingency. Six samples, referred to in this report as the current scrape samples, have been submitted to and analyzed by SRNL. This report contains the statistical analysis of the floor sample analytical results to determine if further data are needed to reduce uncertainty. Included are comparisons with the prior Mantis samples resultsmore » to determine if they can be pooled with the current scrape samples to estimate the upper 95% confidence limits (UCL95%) for concentration. Statistical analysis revealed that the Mantis and current scrape sample results are not compatible. Therefore, the Mantis sample results were not used to support the quantification of analytes in the residual material. Significant spatial variability among the current scrape sample results was not found. Constituent concentrations were similar between the North and South hemispheres as well as between the inner and outer regions of the tank floor. The current scrape sample results from all six samples fall within their 3-sigma limits. In view of the results from numerous statistical tests, the data were pooled from all six current scrape samples. As such, an adequate sample size was provided for quantification of the residual material on the floor of Tank 19F. The uncertainty is quantified in this report by an UCL95% on each analyte concentration. The uncertainty in analyte concentration was calculated as a function of the number of samples, the average, and the standard deviation of the analytical results. The UCL95% was based entirely on the six current scrape sample results (each averaged across three analytical determinations).« less

Examining Dark Triad traits in relation to sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults.

PubMed

Sabouri, Sarah; Gerber, Markus; Lemola, Sakari; Becker, Stephen P; Shamsi, Mahin; Shakouri, Zeinab; Sadeghi Bahmani, Dena; Kalak, Nadeem; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2016-07-01

The Dark Triad (DT) describes a set of three closely related personality traits, Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. A total of 341 adults (M=29years) completed a series of questionnaires related to the DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. A higher DT total score was associated with increased sleep disturbances, and higher scores for anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. In regression analyses Machiavellianism and psychopathy were predictors of sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. Results indicate that specific DT traits, namely Machiavellianism and psychopathy, are associated with sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of SUSA in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for INL VHTR Coupled Codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerhard Strydom

2010-06-01

The need for a defendable and systematic Uncertainty and Sensitivity approach that conforms to the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) process, and that could be used for a wide variety of software codes, was defined in 2008.The GRS (Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit) company of Germany has developed one type of CSAU approach that is particularly well suited for legacy coupled core analysis codes, and a trial version of their commercial software product SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses) was acquired on May 12, 2010. This interim milestone report provides an overview of the current status of themore » implementation and testing of SUSA at the INL VHTR Project Office.« less

Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar

2016-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE PAGES

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; ...

2016-04-01

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Urban, Nathan M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.; Jeffery, Nicole

2016-04-01

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. It is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

PC-BASED SUPERCOMPUTING FOR UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating uncertainty and sensitivity of multimedia environmental models that integrate assessments of air, soil, sediments, groundwater, and surface water is a difficult task. It can be an enormous undertaking even for simple, single-medium models (i.e. groundwater only) descr...

Micropollutants throughout an integrated urban drainage model: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannina, Giorgio; Cosenza, Alida; Viviani, Gaspare

2017-11-01

The paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated urban drainage model which includes micropollutants. Specifically, a bespoke integrated model developed in previous studies has been modified in order to include the micropollutant assessment (namely, sulfamethoxazole - SMX). The model takes into account also the interactions between the three components of the system: sewer system (SS), wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and receiving water body (RWB). The analysis has been applied to an experimental catchment nearby Palermo (Italy): the Nocella catchment. Overall, five scenarios, each characterized by different uncertainty combinations of sub-systems (i.e., SS, WWTP and RWB), have been considered applying, for the sensitivity analysis, the Extended-FAST method in order to select the key factors affecting the RWB quality and to design a reliable/useful experimental campaign. Results have demonstrated that sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool for increasing operator confidence in the modelling results. The approach adopted here can be used for blocking some non-identifiable factors, thus wisely modifying the structure of the model and reducing the related uncertainty. The model factors related to the SS have been found to be the most relevant factors affecting the SMX modeling in the RWB when all model factors (scenario 1) or model factors of SS (scenarios 2 and 3) are varied. If the only factors related to the WWTP are changed (scenarios 4 and 5), the SMX concentration in the RWB is mainly influenced (till to 95% influence of the total variance for SSMX,max) by the aerobic sorption coefficient. A progressive uncertainty reduction from the upstream to downstream was found for the soluble fraction of SMX in the RWB.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Process Identification under Model Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Dai, H.; Walker, A. P.; Shi, L.; Yang, J.

2015-12-01

The environmental system consists of various physical, chemical, and biological processes, and environmental models are always built to simulate these processes and their interactions. For model building, improvement, and validation, it is necessary to identify important processes so that limited resources can be used to better characterize the processes. While global sensitivity analysis has been widely used to identify important processes, the process identification is always based on deterministic process conceptualization that uses a single model for representing a process. However, environmental systems are complex, and it happens often that a single process may be simulated by multiple alternative models. Ignoring the model uncertainty in process identification may lead to biased identification in that identified important processes may not be so in the real world. This study addresses this problem by developing a new method of global sensitivity analysis for process identification. The new method is based on the concept of Sobol sensitivity analysis and model averaging. Similar to the Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters, our new method evaluates variance change when a process is fixed at its different conceptualizations. The variance considers both parametric and model uncertainty using the method of model averaging. The method is demonstrated using a synthetic study of groundwater modeling that considers recharge process and parameterization process. Each process has two alternative models. Important processes of groundwater flow and transport are evaluated using our new method. The method is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

Uncertainty estimates in broadband seismometer sensitivities using microseisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringler, Adam T.; Storm, Tyler L.; Gee, Lind S.; Hutt, Charles R.; Wilson, David C.

2015-01-01

The midband sensitivity of a seismic instrument is one of the fundamental parameters used in published station metadata. Any errors in this value can compromise amplitude estimates in otherwise high-quality data. To estimate an upper bound in the uncertainty of the midband sensitivity for modern broadband instruments, we compare daily microseism (4- to 8-s period) amplitude ratios between the vertical components of colocated broadband sensors across the IRIS/USGS (network code IU) seismic network. We find that the mean of the 145,972 daily ratios used between 2002 and 2013 is 0.9895 with a standard deviation of 0.0231. This suggests that the ratio between instruments shows a small bias and considerable scatter. We also find that these ratios follow a standard normal distribution (R 2 = 0.95442), which suggests that the midband sensitivity of an instrument has an error of no greater than ±6 % with a 99 % confidence interval. This gives an upper bound on the precision to which we know the sensitivity of a fielded instrument.

A new process sensitivity index to identify important system processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Heng; Ye, Ming; Walker, Anthony P.

Hydrological models are always composed of multiple components that represent processes key to intended model applications. When a process can be simulated by multiple conceptual-mathematical models (process models), model uncertainty in representing the process arises. While global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used for identifying important processes in hydrologic modeling, the existing methods consider only parametric uncertainty but ignore the model uncertainty for process representation. To address this problem, this study develops a new method to probe multimodel process sensitivity by integrating the model averaging methods into the framework of variance-based global sensitivity analysis, given that the model averagingmore » methods quantify both parametric and model uncertainty. A new process sensitivity index is derived as a metric of relative process importance, and the index includes variance in model outputs caused by uncertainty in both process models and model parameters. For demonstration, the new index is used to evaluate the processes of recharge and geology in a synthetic study of groundwater reactive transport modeling. The recharge process is simulated by two models that converting precipitation to recharge, and the geology process is also simulated by two models of different parameterizations of hydraulic conductivity; each process model has its own random parameters. The new process sensitivity index is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of problems in hydrology and beyond.« less

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TANK 18F FLOOR SAMPLE RESULTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.

2010-09-02

Representative sampling has been completed for characterization of the residual material on the floor of Tank 18F as per the statistical sampling plan developed by Shine [1]. Samples from eight locations have been obtained from the tank floor and two of the samples were archived as a contingency. Six samples, referred to in this report as the current scrape samples, have been submitted to and analyzed by SRNL [2]. This report contains the statistical analysis of the floor sample analytical results to determine if further data are needed to reduce uncertainty. Included are comparisons with the prior Mantis samples resultsmore » [3] to determine if they can be pooled with the current scrape samples to estimate the upper 95% confidence limits (UCL{sub 95%}) for concentration. Statistical analysis revealed that the Mantis and current scrape sample results are not compatible. Therefore, the Mantis sample results were not used to support the quantification of analytes in the residual material. Significant spatial variability among the current sample results was not found. Constituent concentrations were similar between the North and South hemispheres as well as between the inner and outer regions of the tank floor. The current scrape sample results from all six samples fall within their 3-sigma limits. In view of the results from numerous statistical tests, the data were pooled from all six current scrape samples. As such, an adequate sample size was provided for quantification of the residual material on the floor of Tank 18F. The uncertainty is quantified in this report by an upper 95% confidence limit (UCL{sub 95%}) on each analyte concentration. The uncertainty in analyte concentration was calculated as a function of the number of samples, the average, and the standard deviation of the analytical results. The UCL{sub 95%} was based entirely on the six current scrape sample results (each averaged across three analytical determinations).« less

Application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the air quality SHERPA modelling tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisoni, E.; Albrecht, D.; Mara, T. A.; Rosati, R.; Tarantola, S.; Thunis, P.

2018-06-01

Air quality has significantly improved in Europe over the past few decades. Nonetheless we still find high concentrations in measurements mainly in specific regions or cities. This dimensional shift, from EU-wide to hot-spot exceedances, calls for a novel approach to regional air quality management (to complement EU-wide existing policies). The SHERPA (Screening for High Emission Reduction Potentials on Air quality) modelling tool was developed in this context. It provides an additional tool to be used in support to regional/local decision makers responsible for the design of air quality plans. It is therefore important to evaluate the quality of the SHERPA model, and its behavior in the face of various kinds of uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. They both reveal the links between assumptions and forecasts, help in-model simplification and may highlight unexpected relationships between inputs and outputs. Thus, a policy steered SHERPA module - predicting air quality improvement linked to emission reduction scenarios - was evaluated by means of (1) uncertainty analysis (UA) to quantify uncertainty in the model output, and (2) by sensitivity analysis (SA) to identify the most influential input sources of this uncertainty. The results of this study provide relevant information about the key variables driving the SHERPA output uncertainty, and advise policy-makers and modellers where to place their efforts for an improved decision-making process.

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

PubMed

Freeman, Mark C; Wagner, Gernot; Zeckhauser, Richard J

2015-11-28

Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity--how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. Despite significant advances in climate science and increased confidence in the accuracy of the range itself, the 'likely' range has been 1.5-4.5°C for over three decades. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) narrowed it to 2-4.5°C, only to reverse its decision in 2013, reinstating the prior range. In addition, the 2013 IPCC report removed prior mention of 3°C as the 'best estimate'. We interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC decision to lower the bottom of the range and excise a best estimate. Intuitively, it might seem that a lower bottom would be good news. Here we ask: when might apparently good news about climate sensitivity in fact be bad news in the sense that it lowers societal well-being? The lowered bottom value also implies higher uncertainty about the temperature increase, definitely bad news. Under reasonable assumptions, both the lowering of the lower bound and the removal of the 'best estimate' may well be bad news. © 2015 The Author(s).

Tactile Imaging Markers to Characterize Female Pelvic Floor Conditions.

PubMed

van Raalte, Heather; Egorov, Vladimir

2015-08-01

The Vaginal Tactile Imager (VTI) records pressure patterns from vaginal walls under an applied tissue deformation and during pelvic floor muscle contractions. The objective of this study is to validate tactile imaging and muscle contraction parameters (markers) sensitive to the female pelvic floor conditions. Twenty-two women with normal and prolapse conditions were examined by a vaginal tactile imaging probe. We identified 9 parameters which were sensitive to prolapse conditions ( p < 0.05 for one-way ANOVA and/or p < 0.05 for t -test with correlation factor r from -0.73 to -0.56). The list of parameters includes pressure, pressure gradient and dynamic pressure response during muscle contraction at identified locations. These parameters may be used for biomechanical characterization of female pelvic floor conditions to support an effective management of pelvic floor prolapse.

Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: what is the risk?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groen, E.A., E-mail: Evelyne.Groen@gmail.com; Heijungs, R.; Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, Leiden 2333 CC

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making well-informed decisions in comparative LCA, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Under- or overestimation of output uncertainty (e.g. output variance) will lead to incorrect decisions in such matters. The presence of correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, can increase or decrease the the output variance. However, most LCA studies that include uncertainty analysis, ignore correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, which may lead to incorrect conclusions. Two approaches to include correlationsmore » between input parameters during uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis were studied: an analytical approach and a sampling approach. The use of both approaches is illustrated for an artificial case study of electricity production. Results demonstrate that both approaches yield approximately the same output variance and sensitivity indices for this specific case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the analytical approach can be used to quantify the risk of ignoring correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation in LCA. We demonstrate that: (1) we can predict if including correlations among input parameters in uncertainty propagation will increase or decrease output variance; (2) we can quantify the risk of ignoring correlations on the output variance and the global sensitivity indices. Moreover, this procedure requires only little data. - Highlights: • Ignoring correlation leads to under- or overestimation of the output variance. • We demonstrated that the risk of ignoring correlation can be quantified. • The procedure proposed is generally applicable in life cycle assessment. • In some cases, ignoring correlation has a minimal effect on decision-making tools.« less

Tactile Imaging Markers to Characterize Female Pelvic Floor Conditions

PubMed Central

van Raalte, Heather; Egorov, Vladimir

2015-01-01

The Vaginal Tactile Imager (VTI) records pressure patterns from vaginal walls under an applied tissue deformation and during pelvic floor muscle contractions. The objective of this study is to validate tactile imaging and muscle contraction parameters (markers) sensitive to the female pelvic floor conditions. Twenty-two women with normal and prolapse conditions were examined by a vaginal tactile imaging probe. We identified 9 parameters which were sensitive to prolapse conditions (p < 0.05 for one-way ANOVA and/or p < 0.05 for t-test with correlation factor r from −0.73 to −0.56). The list of parameters includes pressure, pressure gradient and dynamic pressure response during muscle contraction at identified locations. These parameters may be used for biomechanical characterization of female pelvic floor conditions to support an effective management of pelvic floor prolapse. PMID:26389014

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for the LAMMPS Molecular Dynamics Simulation Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Picard, Richard Roy; Bhat, Kabekode Ghanasham

2017-07-18

We examine sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for molecular dynamics simulation. Extreme (large or small) output values for the LAMMPS code often occur at the boundaries of input regions, and uncertainties in those boundary values are overlooked by common SA methods. Similarly, input values for which code outputs are consistent with calibration data can also occur near boundaries. Upon applying approaches in the literature for imprecise probabilities (IPs), much more realistic results are obtained than for the complacent application of standard SA and code calibration.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Pebble Bed HTGR Loss of Cooling Event

DOE PAGES

Strydom, Gerhard

2013-01-01

The Very High Temperature Reactor Methods Development group at the Idaho National Laboratory identified the need for a defensible and systematic uncertainty and sensitivity approach in 2009. This paper summarizes the results of an uncertainty and sensitivity quantification investigation performed with the SUSA code, utilizing the International Atomic Energy Agency CRP 5 Pebble Bed Modular Reactor benchmark and the INL code suite PEBBED-THERMIX. Eight model input parameters were selected for inclusion in this study, and after the input parameters variations and probability density functions were specified, a total of 800 steady state and depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) transientmore » PEBBED-THERMIX calculations were performed. The six data sets were statistically analyzed to determine the 5% and 95% DLOFC peak fuel temperature tolerance intervals with 95% confidence levels. It was found that the uncertainties in the decay heat and graphite thermal conductivities were the most significant contributors to the propagated DLOFC peak fuel temperature uncertainty. No significant differences were observed between the results of Simple Random Sampling (SRS) or Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) data sets, and use of uniform or normal input parameter distributions also did not lead to any significant differences between these data sets.« less

Measurement-based climatology of aerosol direct radiative effect, its sensitivities, and uncertainties from a background southeast US site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, James P.; McComiskey, Allison

2018-03-01

Aerosol optical properties measured at Appalachian State University's co-located NASA AERONET and NOAA ESRL aerosol network monitoring sites over a nearly four-year period (June 2012-Feb 2016) are used, along with satellite-based surface reflectance measurements, to study the seasonal variability of diurnally averaged clear sky aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) and radiative efficiency (RE) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface. Aerosol chemistry and loading at the Appalachian State site are likely representative of the background southeast US (SE US), home to high summertime aerosol loading and one of only a few regions not to have warmed during the 20th century. This study is the first multi-year ground truth DRE study in the SE US, using aerosol network data products that are often used to validate satellite-based aerosol retrievals. The study is also the first in the SE US to quantify DRE uncertainties and sensitivities to aerosol optical properties and surface reflectance, including their seasonal dependence.Median DRE for the study period is -2.9 W m-2 at the TOA and -6.1 W m-2 at the surface. Monthly median and monthly mean DRE at the TOA (surface) are -1 to -2 W m-2 (-2 to -3 W m-2) during winter months and -5 to -6 W m-2 (-10 W m-2) during summer months. The DRE cycles follow the annual cycle of aerosol optical depth (AOD), which is 9 to 10 times larger in summer than in winter. Aerosol RE is anti-correlated with DRE, with winter values 1.5 to 2 times more negative than summer values. Due to the large seasonal dependence of aerosol DRE and RE, we quantify the sensitivity of DRE to aerosol optical properties and surface reflectance, using a calendar day representative of each season (21 December for winter; 21 March for spring, 21 June for summer, and 21 September for fall). We use these sensitivities along with measurement uncertainties of aerosol optical properties and surface reflectance to calculate DRE uncertainties. We also

The Model Optimization, Uncertainty, and SEnsitivity analysis (MOUSE) toolbox: overview and application

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

For several decades, optimization and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of environmental models has been the subject of extensive research. Although much progress has been made and sophisticated methods developed, the growing complexity of environmental models to represent real-world systems makes it...

A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

2014-12-01

Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

A new process sensitivity index to identify important system processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Dai, Heng; Ye, Ming; Walker, Anthony P.; ...

2017-03-28

A hydrological model consists of multiple process level submodels, and each submodel represents a process key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this study develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods withmore » variance-based global sensitivity analysis. A process sensitivity index is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance, and the index includes variance in model outputs caused by uncertainty in both process models and their parameters. Here, for demonstration, the new index is used to assign importance to the processes of recharge and geology in a synthetic study of groundwater reactive transport modeling. The recharge process is simulated by two models that convert precipitation to recharge, and the geology process is simulated by two models of hydraulic conductivity. Each process model has its own random parameters. Finally, the new process sensitivity index is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of problems in hydrology and beyond.« less

A new process sensitivity index to identify important system processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Heng; Ye, Ming; Walker, Anthony P.

A hydrological model consists of multiple process level submodels, and each submodel represents a process key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this study develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods withmore » variance-based global sensitivity analysis. A process sensitivity index is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance, and the index includes variance in model outputs caused by uncertainty in both process models and their parameters. Here, for demonstration, the new index is used to assign importance to the processes of recharge and geology in a synthetic study of groundwater reactive transport modeling. The recharge process is simulated by two models that convert precipitation to recharge, and the geology process is simulated by two models of hydraulic conductivity. Each process model has its own random parameters. Finally, the new process sensitivity index is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of problems in hydrology and beyond.« less

Sensitivity analysis in practice: providing an uncertainty budget when applying supplement 1 to the GUM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, Alexandre; Fischer, Nicolas

2018-06-01

Sensitivity analysis associated with the evaluation of measurement uncertainty is a very important tool for the metrologist, enabling them to provide an uncertainty budget and to gain a better understanding of the measurand and the underlying measurement process. Using the GUM uncertainty framework, the contribution of an input quantity to the variance of the output quantity is obtained through so-called ‘sensitivity coefficients’. In contrast, such coefficients are no longer computed in cases where a Monte-Carlo method is used. In such a case, supplement 1 to the GUM suggests varying the input quantities one at a time, which is not an efficient method and may provide incorrect contributions to the variance in cases where significant interactions arise. This paper proposes different methods for the elaboration of the uncertainty budget associated with a Monte Carlo method. An application to the mass calibration example described in supplement 1 to the GUM is performed with the corresponding R code for implementation. Finally, guidance is given for choosing a method, including suggestions for a future revision of supplement 1 to the GUM.

AN OVERVIEW OF THE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION (UA/SA/PE) API AND HOW TO IMPLEMENT IT

EPA Science Inventory

The Application Programming Interface (API) for Uncertainty Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, and
Parameter Estimation (UA/SA/PE API) (also known as Calibration, Optimization and Sensitivity and Uncertainty (CUSO)) was developed in a joint effort between several members of both ...

Reduction and Uncertainty Analysis of Chemical Mechanisms Based on Local and Global Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Gaetano

Numerical simulations of critical reacting flow phenomena in hypersonic propulsion devices require accurate representation of finite-rate chemical kinetics. The chemical kinetic models available for hydrocarbon fuel combustion are rather large, involving hundreds of species and thousands of reactions. As a consequence, they cannot be used in multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamic calculations in the foreseeable future due to the prohibitive computational cost. In addition to the computational difficulties, it is also known that some fundamental chemical kinetic parameters of detailed models have significant level of uncertainty due to limited experimental data available and to poor understanding of interactions among kinetic parameters. In the present investigation, local and global sensitivity analysis techniques are employed to develop a systematic approach of reducing and analyzing detailed chemical kinetic models. Unlike previous studies in which skeletal model reduction was based on the separate analysis of simple cases, in this work a novel strategy based on Principal Component Analysis of local sensitivity values is presented. This new approach is capable of simultaneously taking into account all the relevant canonical combustion configurations over different composition, temperature and pressure conditions. Moreover, the procedure developed in this work represents the first documented inclusion of non-premixed extinction phenomena, which is of great relevance in hypersonic combustors, in an automated reduction algorithm. The application of the skeletal reduction to a detailed kinetic model consisting of 111 species in 784 reactions is demonstrated. The resulting reduced skeletal model of 37--38 species showed that the global ignition/propagation/extinction phenomena of ethylene-air mixtures can be predicted within an accuracy of 2% of the full detailed model. The problems of both understanding non-linear interactions between kinetic parameters and

The Relationship between Intolerance of Uncertainty, Sensory Sensitivities, and Anxiety in Autistic and Typically Developing Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neil, Louise; Olsson, Nora Choque; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Guided by a recent theory that proposes fundamental differences in how autistic individuals deal with uncertainty, we investigated the extent to which the cognitive construct "intolerance of uncertainty" and anxiety were related to parental reports of sensory sensitivities in 64 autistic and 85 typically developing children aged…

CASL L1 Milestone report : CASL.P4.01, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for CIPS with VIPRE-W and BOA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sung, Yixing; Adams, Brian M.; Secker, Jeffrey R.

2011-12-01

The CASL Level 1 Milestone CASL.P4.01, successfully completed in December 2011, aimed to 'conduct, using methodologies integrated into VERA, a detailed sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of a crud-relevant problem with baseline VERA capabilities (ANC/VIPRE-W/BOA).' The VUQ focus area led this effort, in partnership with AMA, and with support from VRI. DAKOTA was coupled to existing VIPRE-W thermal-hydraulics and BOA crud/boron deposit simulations representing a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that previously experienced crud-induced power shift (CIPS). This work supports understanding of CIPS by exploring the sensitivity and uncertainty in BOA outputs with respect to uncertain operating and model parameters. Thismore » report summarizes work coupling the software tools, characterizing uncertainties, and analyzing the results of iterative sensitivity and uncertainty studies. These studies focused on sensitivity and uncertainty of CIPS indicators calculated by the current version of the BOA code used in the industry. Challenges with this kind of analysis are identified to inform follow-on research goals and VERA development targeting crud-related challenge problems.« less

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in the CICE v5.1 Sea Ice Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Urban, N. M.

2015-12-01

Changes in the high latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with mid latitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. In this work we characterize parametric uncertainty in Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE) and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent and volume with respect to uncertainty in about 40 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one-at-a-time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 40-dimensional parameter space. This approach requires a very large number of model evaluations, which are expensive to run. A more computationally efficient approach is implemented by training and cross-validating a surrogate (emulator) of the sea ice model with model output from 400 model runs. The emulator is used to make predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume at several model configurations, which are then used to compute the Sobol sensitivity indices of the 40 parameters. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model output is most sensitive to snow parameters such as conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. The main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a non-parametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. It is recommended research to be prioritized towards more accurately determining these most influential parameters values by observational studies or by improving existing parameterizations in the sea ice model.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Streamflow Prediction Using Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms: San Joaquin California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, M.; Negahban-Azar, M.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic models usually need to be calibrated against observed streamflow at the outlet of a particular drainage area through a careful model calibration. However, a large number of parameters are required to fit in the model due to their unavailability of the field measurement. Therefore, it is difficult to calibrate the model for a large number of potential uncertain model parameters. This even becomes more challenging if the model is for a large watershed with multiple land uses and various geophysical characteristics. Sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used as a tool to identify most sensitive model parameters which affect the calibrated model performance. There are many different calibration and uncertainty analysis algorithms which can be performed with different objective functions. By incorporating sensitive parameters in streamflow simulation, effects of the suitable algorithm in improving model performance can be demonstrated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling. In this study, the SWAT was applied in the San Joaquin Watershed in California covering 19704 km2 to calibrate the daily streamflow. Recently, sever water stress escalating due to intensified climate variability, prolonged drought and depleting groundwater for agricultural irrigation in this watershed. Therefore it is important to perform a proper uncertainty analysis given the uncertainties inherent in hydrologic modeling to predict the spatial and temporal variation of the hydrologic process to evaluate the impacts of different hydrologic variables. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and uncertainty of the calibrated parameters for predicting streamflow. To evaluate the sensitivity of the calibrated parameters three different optimization algorithms (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting- SUFI-2, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation- GLUE and Parameter Solution- ParaSol) were used with four different objective functions (coefficient of determination

Linked Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, and Uncertainty Analysis Using a System Dynamics Model for Stroke Comparative Effectiveness Research.

PubMed

Tian, Yuan; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Osgood, Nathaniel D; Eom, Kirsten; Matchar, David B

2016-11-01

As health services researchers and decision makers tackle more difficult problems using simulation models, the number of parameters and the corresponding degree of uncertainty have increased. This often results in reduced confidence in such complex models to guide decision making. To demonstrate a systematic approach of linked sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis to improve confidence in complex models. Four techniques were integrated and applied to a System Dynamics stroke model of US veterans, which was developed to inform systemwide intervention and research planning: Morris method (sensitivity analysis), multistart Powell hill-climbing algorithm and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (calibration), and Monte Carlo simulation (uncertainty analysis). Of 60 uncertain parameters, sensitivity analysis identified 29 needing calibration, 7 that did not need calibration but significantly influenced key stroke outcomes, and 24 not influential to calibration or stroke outcomes that were fixed at their best guess values. One thousand alternative well-calibrated baselines were obtained to reflect calibration uncertainty and brought into uncertainty analysis. The initial stroke incidence rate among veterans was identified as the most influential uncertain parameter, for which further data should be collected. That said, accounting for current uncertainty, the analysis of 15 distinct prevention and treatment interventions provided a robust conclusion that hypertension control for all veterans would yield the largest gain in quality-adjusted life years. For complex health care models, a mixed approach was applied to examine the uncertainty surrounding key stroke outcomes and the robustness of conclusions. We demonstrate that this rigorous approach can be practical and advocate for such analysis to promote understanding of the limits of certainty in applying models to current decisions and to guide future data collection. © The Author(s) 2016.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling

DOE PAGES

Pastore, Giovanni; Swiler, L. P.; Hales, Jason D.; ...

2014-10-12

The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertaintymore » in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.« less

INVESTIGATING UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY IN INTEGRATED MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS: TOOLS FOR 3MRA

EPA Science Inventory

Sufficiently elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The ensuing challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-ord...

Overview and application of the Model Optimization, Uncertainty, and SEnsitivity Analysis (MOUSE) toolbox

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

For several decades, optimization and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of environmental models has been the subject of extensive research. Although much progress has been made and sophisticated methods developed, the growing complexity of environmental models to represent real-world systems makes it...

Pelvic floor assessment after delivery: how should women be selected?

PubMed

Soligo, Marco; Livio, Stefania; De Ponti, Elena; Scebba, Ileana; Carpentieri, Federica; Serati, Maurizio; Ferrazzi, Enrico

2016-11-01

Pelvic floor dysfunction after delivery is quite common. New mothers deserve to receive targeted care for pelvic floor dysfunction, but how should women who are at risk be identified and selected for treatment? This study investigated risk factors and puerperal health-seeking behaviours to develop a restrictive patient selection model for postpartum pelvic floor dysfunction assessment. This prospective observational study involved women who were at ≥32 weeks gestational age when they delivered in a tertiary referral maternity hospital in Milan, Italy, between July and December 2014. Eligible women were scheduled for a 3-month postnatal pelvic floor clinic. The adherence rate to the pelvic floor clinic and the prevalence of pelvic floor dysfunctions at 3 months postpartum were recorded. Univariable and logistic multivariable analyses were performed to select risk factors for pelvic floor dysfunctions. Risk factors were then tested for sensitivity and specificity for 3-month postpartum pelvic floor dysfunctions. Of 1606 eligible women, 1293 (80.5%) were included in the analysis; 685 puerperal women (53.0%) adhered to the 3-month postnatal pelvic floor clinic; pelvic floor dysfunctions were detected in 238 women (34.7%). Four elements emerged as risk factors: symptoms before pregnancy (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.15-2.56; p=0.008), symptoms during pregnancy (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.49-3.06; p<0.0001), vacuum extractor use (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.54; p=0.034), and severe perineal tears (OR 19.45, 95% CI 2.42-156.15; p=0.005). The combined sensitivity and specificity for the 4 risk factors were 82% and 39%, respectively. Internal risk factors analysis offers the potential to efficiently restrict patient selection for follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

2007-12-01

The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result ofmore » the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The

Employing Sensitivity Derivatives for Robust Optimization under Uncertainty in CFD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Perry A.; Putko, Michele M.; Taylor, Arthur C., III

2004-01-01

A robust optimization is demonstrated on a two-dimensional inviscid airfoil problem in subsonic flow. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed flow parameters (input variables), an approximate first-order statistical moment method is employed to represent the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code outputs as expected values with variances. These output quantities are used to form the objective function and constraints. The constraints are cast in probabilistic terms; that is, the probability that a constraint is satisfied is greater than or equal to some desired target probability. Gradient-based robust optimization of this stochastic problem is accomplished through use of both first and second-order sensitivity derivatives. For each robust optimization, the effect of increasing both input standard deviations and target probability of constraint satisfaction are demonstrated. This method provides a means for incorporating uncertainty when considering small deviations from input mean values.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of control strategies using the benchmark simulation model No1 (BSM1).

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Rodriguez-Roda, Ignasi; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

2009-01-01

The objective of this paper is to perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the predictions of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) No. 1, when comparing four activated sludge control strategies. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to evaluate the uncertainty in the BSM1 predictions, considering the ASM1 bio-kinetic parameters and influent fractions as input uncertainties while the Effluent Quality Index (EQI) and the Operating Cost Index (OCI) are focused on as model outputs. The resulting Monte Carlo simulations are presented using descriptive statistics indicating the degree of uncertainty in the predicted EQI and OCI. Next, the Standard Regression Coefficients (SRC) method is used for sensitivity analysis to identify which input parameters influence the uncertainty in the EQI predictions the most. The results show that control strategies including an ammonium (S(NH)) controller reduce uncertainty in both overall pollution removal and effluent total Kjeldahl nitrogen. Also, control strategies with an external carbon source reduce the effluent nitrate (S(NO)) uncertainty increasing both their economical cost and variability as a trade-off. Finally, the maximum specific autotrophic growth rate (micro(A)) causes most of the variance in the effluent for all the evaluated control strategies. The influence of denitrification related parameters, e.g. eta(g) (anoxic growth rate correction factor) and eta(h) (anoxic hydrolysis rate correction factor), becomes less important when a S(NO) controller manipulating an external carbon source addition is implemented.

SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTIES IN ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELS II: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE CONUS DOMAIN

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we present the response of model results to different scientific treatments in an effort to quantify the uncertainties caused by the incomplete understanding of mercury science and by model assumptions in atmospheric mercury models. Two sets of sensitivity simulati...

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zajac, Zuzanna; Stith, Bradley M.; Bowling, Andrea C.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Swain, Eric D.

2015-01-01

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessments of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using the GLUE method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mei; Zhang, Xiaolin; Huo, Zailin; Feng, Shaoyuan; Huang, Guanhua; Mao, Xiaomin

2016-03-01

Quantitatively ascertaining and analyzing the effects of model uncertainty on model reliability is a focal point for agricultural-hydrological models due to more uncertainties of inputs and processes. In this study, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used to evaluate the uncertainty of the RZWQM-DSSAT (RZWQM2) model outputs responses and the sensitivity of 25 parameters related to soil properties, nutrient transport and crop genetics. To avoid the one-sided risk of model prediction caused by using a single calibration criterion, the combined likelihood (CL) function integrated information concerning water, nitrogen, and crop production was introduced in GLUE analysis for the predictions of the following four model output responses: the total amount of water content (T-SWC) and the nitrate nitrogen (T-NIT) within the 1-m soil profile, the seed yields of waxy maize (Y-Maize) and winter wheat (Y-Wheat). In the process of evaluating RZWQM2, measurements and meteorological data were obtained from a field experiment that involved a winter wheat and waxy maize crop rotation system conducted from 2003 to 2004 in southern Beijing. The calibration and validation results indicated that RZWQM2 model can be used to simulate the crop growth and water-nitrogen migration and transformation in wheat-maize crop rotation planting system. The results of uncertainty analysis using of GLUE method showed T-NIT was sensitive to parameters relative to nitrification coefficient, maize growth characteristics on seedling period, wheat vernalization period, and wheat photoperiod. Parameters on soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, nitrogen nitrification and denitrification, and urea hydrolysis played an important role in crop yield component. The prediction errors for RZWQM2 outputs with CL function were relatively lower and uniform compared with other likelihood functions composed of individual calibration criterion. This

Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen

Accuracy of integrated total pelvic floor ultrasound compared to defaecatory MRI in females with pelvic floor defaecatory dysfunction

PubMed Central

Pilkington, Sophie A; Grierson, Catherine; Rutherford, Elizabeth; Schizas, Alexis M P; Nugent, Karen P; Williams, Andrew B

2016-01-01

Objective: Defaecatory MRI allows multicompartmental assessment of defaecatory dysfunction but is often inaccessible. Integrated total pelvic floor ultrasound (transperineal, transvaginal, endoanal) may provide a cheap, portable alternative. The accuracy of total pelvic floor ultrasound for anatomical abnormalities when compared with defaecatory MRI was assessed. Methods: The dynamic images from 68 females who had undergone integrated total pelvic floor ultrasound and defaecatory MRI between 2009 and 2015 were blindly reviewed. The following were recorded: rectocoele, enterocoele, intussusception and cystocoele. Results: There were 26 rectocoeles on MRI (49 rectocoeles on ultrasound), 24 rectocoeles with intussusception on MRI (19 rectocoeles on ultrasound), 23 enterocoeles on MRI (24 enterocoeles on ultrasound) and 49 cystocoeles on MRI (35 cystocoeles on ultrasound). Sensitivity and specificity of total pelvic floor ultrasound were 81% and 33% for rectocoele, 60% and 91% for intussusception, 65% and 80% for enterocoele and 65% and 84% for cystocoele when compared with defaecatory MRI. This gave a negative-predictive value and positive-predictive value of 74% and 43% for rectocoele, 80% and 79% for intussusception, 82% and 63% for enterocoele and 48% and 91% for cystocoele. Conclusion: Integrated total pelvic floor ultrasound may serve as a screening tool for pelvic floor defaecatory dysfunction; when normal, defaecatory MRI can be avoided, as rectocoele, intussusception and enterocoele are unlikely to be present. Advances in knowledge: This is the first study to compare integrated total pelvic floor ultrasound with defaecatory MRI. The results support the use of integrated total pelvic floor ultrasound as a screening tool for defaecatory dysfunction. PMID:27730818

Soil moisture sensitivity of autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration in boreal xeric pine and mesic spruce forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ťupek, Boris; Launiainen, Samuli; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Heikkinen, Jukka; Lehtonen, Aleksi

2016-04-01

Litter decomposition rates of the most process based soil carbon models affected by environmental conditions are linked with soil heterotrophic CO2 emissions and serve for estimating soil carbon sequestration; thus due to the mass balance equation the variation in measured litter inputs and measured heterotrophic soil CO2 effluxes should indicate soil carbon stock changes, needed by soil carbon management for mitigation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, if sensitivity functions of the applied model suit to the environmental conditions e.g. soil temperature and moisture. We evaluated the response forms of autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration to soil temperature and moisture in four boreal forest sites of the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests) by a soil trenching experiment during year 2015 in southern Finland. As expected both autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration components were primarily controlled by soil temperature and exponential regression models generally explained more than 90% of the variance. Soil moisture regression models on average explained less than 10% of the variance and the response forms varied between Gaussian for the autotrophic forest floor respiration component and linear for the heterotrophic forest floor respiration component. Although the percentage of explained variance of soil heterotrophic respiration by the soil moisture was small, the observed reduction of CO2 emissions with higher moisture levels suggested that soil moisture response of soil carbon models not accounting for the reduction due to excessive moisture should be re-evaluated in order to estimate right levels of soil carbon stock changes. Our further study will include evaluation of process based soil carbon models by the annual heterotrophic respiration and soil carbon stocks.

WE-D-BRE-07: Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to Quantify the Impact of Biological Uncertainties in Particle Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamp, F.; Brueningk, S.C.; Wilkens, J.J.

Purpose: In particle therapy, treatment planning and evaluation are frequently based on biological models to estimate the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) or the equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2). In the context of the linear-quadratic model, these quantities depend on biological parameters (α, β) for ions as well as for the reference radiation and on the dose per fraction. The needed biological parameters as well as their dependency on ion species and ion energy typically are subject to large (relative) uncertainties of up to 20–40% or even more. Therefore it is necessary to estimate the resulting uncertainties in e.g.more » RBE or EQD2 caused by the uncertainties of the relevant input parameters. Methods: We use a variance-based sensitivity analysis (SA) approach, in which uncertainties in input parameters are modeled by random number distributions. The evaluated function is executed 10{sup 4} to 10{sup 6} times, each run with a different set of input parameters, randomly varied according to their assigned distribution. The sensitivity S is a variance-based ranking (from S = 0, no impact, to S = 1, only influential part) of the impact of input uncertainties. The SA approach is implemented for carbon ion treatment plans on 3D patient data, providing information about variations (and their origin) in RBE and EQD2. Results: The quantification enables 3D sensitivity maps, showing dependencies of RBE and EQD2 on different input uncertainties. The high number of runs allows displaying the interplay between different input uncertainties. The SA identifies input parameter combinations which result in extreme deviations of the result and the input parameter for which an uncertainty reduction is the most rewarding. Conclusion: The presented variance-based SA provides advantageous properties in terms of visualization and quantification of (biological) uncertainties and their impact. The method is very flexible, model independent, and enables a broad

Space Shuttle Orbiter flight heating rate measurement sensitivity to thermal protection system uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, P. F.; Throckmorton, D. A.

1981-01-01

A study was completed to determine the sensitivity of computed convective heating rates to uncertainties in the thermal protection system thermal model. Those parameters considered were: density, thermal conductivity, and specific heat of both the reusable surface insulation and its coating; coating thickness and emittance; and temperature measurement uncertainty. The assessment used a modified version of the computer program to calculate heating rates from temperature time histories. The original version of the program solves the direct one dimensional heating problem and this modified version of The program is set up to solve the inverse problem. The modified program was used in thermocouple data reduction for shuttle flight data. Both nominal thermal models and altered thermal models were used to determine the necessity for accurate knowledge of thermal protection system's material thermal properties. For many thermal properties, the sensitivity (inaccuracies created in the calculation of convective heating rate by an altered property) was very low.

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

adopted in the loss calculations. This is a sensitivity study aimed at future regional earthquake source modelers, so that they may be informed of the effects on loss introduced by modeling assumptions and epistemic uncertainty in the WG02 earthquake source model.

MOESHA: A genetic algorithm for automatic calibration and estimation of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity of hydrologic models

EPA Science Inventory

Characterization of uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameters is an essential and often overlooked facet of hydrological modeling. This paper introduces an algorithm called MOESHA that combines input parameter sensitivity analyses with a genetic algorithm calibration routin...

3.8 Proposed approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in the next PA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flach, Greg; Wohlwend, Jen

2017-10-02

This memorandum builds upon Section 3.8 of SRNL (2016) and Flach (2017) by defining key error analysis, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis concepts and terms, in preparation for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (WSRC 2008) revision.

Proof-of-Concept Study for Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis using the BRL Shaped-Charge Example

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, Justin Matthew

These are the slides for a graduate presentation at Mississippi State University. It covers the following: the BRL Shaped-Charge Geometry in PAGOSA, mesh refinement study, surrogate modeling using a radial basis function network (RBFN), ruling out parameters using sensitivity analysis (equation of state study), uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology, and sensitivity analysis (SA) methodology. In summary, a mesh convergence study was used to ensure that solutions were numerically stable by comparing PDV data between simulations. A Design of Experiments (DOE) method was used to reduce the simulation space to study the effects of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) Parameters for the Composition Bmore » main charge. Uncertainty was quantified by computing the 95% data range about the median of simulation output using a brute force Monte Carlo (MC) random sampling method. Parameter sensitivities were quantified using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) spectral analysis method where it was determined that detonation velocity, initial density, C1, and B1 controlled jet tip velocity.« less

PEBBED Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the CRP-5 PBMR DLOFC Transient Benchmark with the SUSA Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerhard Strydom

2011-01-01

The need for a defendable and systematic uncertainty and sensitivity approach that conforms to the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) process, and that could be used for a wide variety of software codes, was defined in 2008. The GRS (Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit) company of Germany has developed one type of CSAU approach that is particularly well suited for legacy coupled core analysis codes, and a trial version of their commercial software product SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses) was acquired on May 12, 2010. This report summarized the results of the initial investigations performed with SUSA,more » utilizing a typical High Temperature Reactor benchmark (the IAEA CRP-5 PBMR 400MW Exercise 2) and the PEBBED-THERMIX suite of codes. The following steps were performed as part of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: 1. Eight PEBBED-THERMIX model input parameters were selected for inclusion in the uncertainty study: the total reactor power, inlet gas temperature, decay heat, and the specific heat capability and thermal conductivity of the fuel, pebble bed and reflector graphite. 2. The input parameters variations and probability density functions were specified, and a total of 800 PEBBED-THERMIX model calculations were performed, divided into 4 sets of 100 and 2 sets of 200 Steady State and Depressurized Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) transient calculations each. 3. The steady state and DLOFC maximum fuel temperature, as well as the daily pebble fuel load rate data, were supplied to SUSA as model output parameters of interest. The 6 data sets were statistically analyzed to determine the 5% and 95% percentile values for each of the 3 output parameters with a 95% confidence level, and typical statistical indictors were also generated (e.g. Kendall, Pearson and Spearman coefficients). 4. A SUSA sensitivity study was performed to obtain correlation data between the input and output parameters, and to

INVESTIGATING UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY IN INTEGRATED, MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS: TOOLS FOR FRAMES-3MRA

EPA Science Inventory

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites...

Sensitivity of Asteroid Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Dotson, Jessie L.; NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

2017-10-01

A central challenge in assessing the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty inherent throughout all aspects of the problem. Many asteroid properties are not well characterized and can range widely from strong, dense, monolithic irons to loosely bound, highly porous rubble piles. Even for an object of known properties, the specific entry velocity, angle, and impact location can swing the potential consequence from no damage to causing millions of casualties. Due to the extreme rarity of large asteroid strikes, there are also large uncertainties in how different types of asteroids will interact with the atmosphere during entry, how readily they may break up or ablate, and how much surface damage will be caused by the resulting airbursts or impacts.In this work, we use our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to uncertainties in key asteroid properties, entry parameters, or modeling assumptions. The PAIR model combines physics-based analytic models of asteroid entry and damage in a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework to assess the risk posed by a wide range of potential impacts. The model samples from uncertainty distributions of asteroid properties and entry parameters to generate millions of specific impact cases, and models the atmospheric entry and damage for each case, including blast overpressure, thermal radiation, tsunami inundation, and global effects. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix and vary the different input parameters and compare the effect on the resulting range of damage produced. The goal of these studies is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

Uncertainties propagation and global sensitivity analysis of the frequency response function of piezoelectric energy harvesters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, Rafael O.; Meruane, Viviana

2017-06-01

The goal of this work is to describe a framework to propagate uncertainties in piezoelectric energy harvesters (PEHs). These uncertainties are related to the incomplete knowledge of the model parameters. The framework presented could be employed to conduct prior robust stochastic predictions. The prior analysis assumes a known probability density function for the uncertain variables and propagates the uncertainties to the output voltage. The framework is particularized to evaluate the behavior of the frequency response functions (FRFs) in PEHs, while its implementation is illustrated by the use of different unimorph and bimorph PEHs subjected to different scenarios: free of uncertainties, common uncertainties, and uncertainties as a product of imperfect clamping. The common variability associated with the PEH parameters are tabulated and reported. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol indices. Results indicate that the elastic modulus, density, and thickness of the piezoelectric layer are the most relevant parameters of the output variability. The importance of including the model parameter uncertainties in the estimation of the FRFs is revealed. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design and prediction of PEH performance.

Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

2016-12-01

Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a

Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perkó, Zoltán, E-mail: Z.Perko@tudelft.nl; Gilli, Luca, E-mail: Gilli@nrg.eu; Lathouwers, Danny, E-mail: D.Lathouwers@tudelft.nl

2014-03-01

The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work ismore » focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Huang, Zhihong; Yan, Wende

2014-01-01

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Uncertainty Quantification and Regional Sensitivity Analysis of Snow-related Parameters in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, B.; Fletcher, C. G.

2017-12-01

The parameterization of snow processes in land surface models is an important source of uncertainty in climate simulations. Quantifying the importance of snow-related parameters, and their uncertainties, may therefore lead to better understanding and quantification of uncertainty within integrated earth system models. However, quantifying the uncertainty arising from parameterized snow processes is challenging due to the high-dimensional parameter space, poor observational constraints, and parameter interaction. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the land simulation to uncertainty in snow microphysical parameters in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS) using an uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach. A set of training cases (n=400) from CLASS is used to sample each parameter across its full range of empirical uncertainty, as determined from available observations and expert elicitation. A statistical learning model using support vector regression (SVR) is then constructed from the training data (CLASS output variables) to efficiently emulate the dynamical CLASS simulations over a much larger (n=220) set of cases. This approach is used to constrain the plausible range for each parameter using a skill score, and to identify the parameters with largest influence on the land simulation in CLASS at global and regional scales, using a random forest (RF) permutation importance algorithm. Preliminary sensitivity tests indicate that snow albedo refreshment threshold and the limiting snow depth, below which bare patches begin to appear, have the highest impact on snow output variables. The results also show a considerable reduction of the plausible ranges of the parameters values and hence reducing their uncertainty ranges, which can lead to a significant reduction of the model uncertainty. The implementation and results of this study will be presented and discussed in details.

FIRST FLOOR FRONT ROOM. SECOND FLOOR HAS BEEN REMOVED NOTE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

FIRST FLOOR FRONT ROOM. SECOND FLOOR HAS BEEN REMOVED-- NOTE PRESENCE OF SECOND FLOOR WINDOWS (THE LATTER FLOOR WAS REMOVED MANY YEARS AGO), See also PA-1436 B-12 - Kid-Physick House, 325 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, Philadelphia County, PA

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. Finally, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Geraci, Gianluca; Eldred, Michael S.; Vane, Zachary P.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph C.; Najm, Habib N.

2018-03-01

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the systems stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. These methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE PAGES

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; ...

2018-02-09

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

Solar atmospheric neutrinos: A new neutrino floor for dark matter searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, Kenny C. Y.; Beacom, John F.; Peter, Annika H. G.; Rott, Carsten

2017-11-01

As is well known, dark matter direct detection experiments will ultimately be limited by a "neutrino floor," due to the scattering of nuclei by MeV neutrinos from, e.g., nuclear fusion in the Sun. Here we point out the existence of a new neutrino floor that will similarly limit indirect detection with the Sun, due to high-energy neutrinos from cosmic-ray interactions with the solar atmosphere. We have two key findings. First, solar atmospheric neutrinos ≲1 TeV cause a sensitivity floor for standard weakly interacting massive particles (WIMP) scenarios, for which higher-energy neutrinos are absorbed in the Sun. This floor will be reached once the present sensitivity is improved by just 1 order of magnitude. Second, for neutrinos ≳1 TeV , which can be isolated by muon energy loss rate, solar atmospheric neutrinos should soon be detectable in IceCube. Discovery will help probe the complicated effects of solar magnetic fields on cosmic rays. These events will be backgrounds to WIMP scenarios with long-lived mediators, for which higher-energy neutrinos can escape from the Sun.

Incorporating uncertainty of management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models.

PubMed

Salomon, Yacov; McCarthy, Michael A; Taylor, Peter; Wintle, Brendan A

2013-02-01

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental-management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population-management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost-efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on

Sensitivity of ocean acidification and oxygen to the uncertainty in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Wang, Shuangjing; Zheng, Meidi; Zhang, Han

2014-05-01

Due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate change, the global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. Among these, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would also affect the projection of oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To investigate this issue, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform a set of simulations, including that which involves no radiative effect of atmospheric CO2 and those which involve CO2-induced climate change with climate sensitivity varying from 0.5 °C to 4.5 °C. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is prescribed to follow RCP 8.5 pathway and its extensions. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. It is found that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an atmospheric chemistry transport model: the FRAME model (version 9.15.0) as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksankina, Ksenia; Heal, Mathew R.; Dore, Anthony J.; Van Oijen, Marcel; Reis, Stefan

2018-04-01

Atmospheric chemistry transport models (ACTMs) are widely used to underpin policy decisions associated with the impact of potential changes in emissions on future pollutant concentrations and deposition. It is therefore essential to have a quantitative understanding of the uncertainty in model output arising from uncertainties in the input pollutant emissions. ACTMs incorporate complex and non-linear descriptions of chemical and physical processes which means that interactions and non-linearities in input-output relationships may not be revealed through the local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis typically used. The aim of this work is to demonstrate a global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for an ACTM, using as an example the FRAME model, which is extensively employed in the UK to generate source-receptor matrices for the UK Integrated Assessment Model and to estimate critical load exceedances. An optimised Latin hypercube sampling design was used to construct model runs within ±40 % variation range for the UK emissions of SO2, NOx, and NH3, from which regression coefficients for each input-output combination and each model grid ( > 10 000 across the UK) were calculated. Surface concentrations of SO2, NOx, and NH3 (and of deposition of S and N) were found to be predominantly sensitive to the emissions of the respective pollutant, while sensitivities of secondary species such as HNO3 and particulate SO42-, NO3-, and NH4+ to pollutant emissions were more complex and geographically variable. The uncertainties in model output variables were propagated from the uncertainty ranges reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory for the emissions of SO2, NOx, and NH3 (±4, ±10, and ±20 % respectively). The uncertainties in the surface concentrations of NH3 and NOx and the depositions of NHx and NOy were dominated by the uncertainties in emissions of NH3, and NOx respectively, whilst concentrations of SO2 and deposition of SOy were affected

Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

planning exercises and wargaming. Initial Experimentation Late in the research , the prototype platform and the various fusion methods came together. This...Chapter Four points to prior research 2 Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion in mind multimethod fusing of complex information...our research is assessing the threat of terrorism posed by individuals or groups under scrutiny. Broadly, the ultimate objec- tives, which go well

Overview of the AVT-191 Project to Assess Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Military Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benek, John A.; Luckring, James M.

2017-01-01

A NATO symposium held in 2008 identified many promising sensitivity analysis and un-certainty quantification technologies, but the maturity and suitability of these methods for realistic applications was not known. The STO Task Group AVT-191 was established to evaluate the maturity and suitability of various sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods for application to realistic problems of interest to NATO. The program ran from 2011 to 2015, and the work was organized into four discipline-centric teams: external aerodynamics, internal aerodynamics, aeroelasticity, and hydrodynamics. This paper presents an overview of the AVT-191 program content.

[Pelvic floor muscle training and pelvic floor disorders in women].

PubMed

Thubert, T; Bakker, E; Fritel, X

2015-05-01

Our goal is to provide an update on the results of pelvic floor rehabilitation in the treatment of urinary incontinence and genital prolapse symptoms. Pelvic floor muscle training allows a reduction of urinary incontinence symptoms. Pelvic floor muscle contractions supervised by a healthcare professional allow cure in half cases of stress urinary incontinence. Viewing this contraction through biofeedback improves outcomes, but this effect could also be due by a more intensive and prolonged program with the physiotherapist. The place of electrostimulation remains unclear. The results obtained with vaginal cones are similar to pelvic floor muscle training with or without biofeedback or electrostimulation. It is not known whether pelvic floor muscle training has an effect after one year. In case of stress urinary incontinence, supervised pelvic floor muscle training avoids surgery in half of the cases at 1-year follow-up. Pelvic floor muscle training is the first-line treatment of post-partum urinary incontinence. Its preventive effect is uncertain. Pelvic floor muscle training may reduce the symptoms associated with genital prolapse. In conclusion, pelvic floor rehabilitation supervised by a physiotherapist is an effective short-term treatment to reduce the symptoms of urinary incontinence or pelvic organ prolapse. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Environmental Modeling at a Radioactive Waste Management Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockton, T. B.; Black, P. K.; Catlett, K. M.; Tauxe, J. D.

2002-05-01

Environmental modeling is an essential component in the evaluation of regulatory compliance of radioactive waste management sites (RWMSs) at the Nevada Test Site in southern Nevada, USA. For those sites that are currently operating, further goals are to support integrated decision analysis for the development of acceptance criteria for future wastes, as well as site maintenance, closure, and monitoring. At these RWMSs, the principal pathways for release of contamination to the environment are upward towards the ground surface rather than downwards towards the deep water table. Biotic processes, such as burrow excavation and plant uptake and turnover, dominate this upward transport. A combined multi-pathway contaminant transport and risk assessment model was constructed using the GoldSim modeling platform. This platform facilitates probabilistic analysis of environmental systems, and is especially well suited for assessments involving radionuclide decay chains. The model employs probabilistic definitions of key parameters governing contaminant transport, with the goals of quantifying cumulative uncertainty in the estimation of performance measures and providing information necessary to perform sensitivity analyses. This modeling differs from previous radiological performance assessments (PAs) in that the modeling parameters are intended to be representative of the current knowledge, and the uncertainty in that knowledge, of parameter values rather than reflective of a conservative assessment approach. While a conservative PA may be sufficient to demonstrate regulatory compliance, a parametrically honest PA can also be used for more general site decision-making. In particular, a parametrically honest probabilistic modeling approach allows both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be explicitly coupled to the decision framework using a single set of model realizations. For example, sensitivity analysis provides a guide for analyzing the value of collecting more

Robust Adaptation? Assessing the sensitivity of safety margins in flood defences to uncertainty in future simulations - a case study from Ireland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Bastola, Satish; Sweeney, John

2013-04-01

Climate change impact and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a 'top-down' scenario based approach, where information from different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are employed to develop impacts led adaptation strategies. Due to the tradeoffs in the computational cost and need to include a wide range of GCMs for fuller characterization of uncertainties, scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal. One common approach to adaptation that has been defined as robust is the use of safety margins. In this work the sensitivity of safety margins that have been adopted by the agency responsible for flood risk management in Ireland, to the uncertainty in future projections are examined. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for four Irish catchments using a large number of GCMs (17) forced with three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2, B1) as input to four hydrological models. Both uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maxima series. The sensitivity of design margins to the uncertainty space considered is visualised using risk response surfaces. The hydrological sensitivity is measured as the percentage change in flood peak for specified recurrence intervals. Results indicate that there is a considerable residual risk associated with allowances of +20% when uncertainties are accounted for and that the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greatest for more extreme, low frequency events with considerable implication for critical infrastructure, e.g., culverts, bridges, flood defences whose designs are normally

Floors: Selection and Maintenance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkeley, Bernard

Flooring for institutional, commercial, and industrial use is described with regard to its selection, care, and maintenance. The following flooring and subflooring material categories are discussed--(1) resilient floor coverings, (2) carpeting, (3) masonry floors, (4) wood floors, and (5) "formed-in-place floors". The properties, problems,…

FIRST FLOOR REAR ROOM. SECOND FLOOR HAS BEEN REMOVED NOTE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

FIRST FLOOR REAR ROOM. SECOND FLOOR HAS BEEN REMOVED-- NOTE PRESENCE OF SECOND FLOOR WINDOWS AT LEFT. See also PA-1436 B-6 - Kid-Physick House, 325 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, Philadelphia County, PA

FIRST FLOOR REAR ROOM. SECOND FLOOR HAS BEEN REMOVED NOTE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

FIRST FLOOR REAR ROOM. SECOND FLOOR HAS BEEN REMOVED-- NOTE PRESENCE OF SECOND FLOOR WINDOWS AT LEFT. See also PA-1436 B-13 - Kid-Physick House, 325 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, Philadelphia County, PA

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the

Adjoint-Based Uncertainty Quantification with MCNP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seifried, Jeffrey E.

2011-09-01

This work serves to quantify the instantaneous uncertainties in neutron transport simulations born from nuclear data and statistical counting uncertainties. Perturbation and adjoint theories are used to derive implicit sensitivity expressions. These expressions are transformed into forms that are convenient for construction with MCNP6, creating the ability to perform adjoint-based uncertainty quantification with MCNP6. These new tools are exercised on the depleted-uranium hybrid LIFE blanket, quantifying its sensitivities and uncertainties to important figures of merit. Overall, these uncertainty estimates are small (< 2%). Having quantified the sensitivities and uncertainties, physical understanding of the system is gained and some confidence inmore » the simulation is acquired.« less

Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

DOE Data Explorer

Mccomiskey, Allison

2008-01-15

Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

Sensitivity analysis of respiratory parameter uncertainties: impact of criterion function form and constraints.

PubMed

Lutchen, K R

1990-08-01

A sensitivity analysis based on weighted least-squares regression is presented to evaluate alternative methods for fitting lumped-parameter models to respiratory impedance data. The goal is to maintain parameter accuracy simultaneously with practical experiment design. The analysis focuses on predicting parameter uncertainties using a linearized approximation for joint confidence regions. Applications are with four-element parallel and viscoelastic models for 0.125- to 4-Hz data and a six-element model with separate tissue and airway properties for input and transfer impedance data from 2-64 Hz. The criterion function form was evaluated by comparing parameter uncertainties when data are fit as magnitude and phase, dynamic resistance and compliance, or real and imaginary parts of input impedance. The proper choice of weighting can make all three criterion variables comparable. For the six-element model, parameter uncertainties were predicted when both input impedance and transfer impedance are acquired and fit simultaneously. A fit to both data sets from 4 to 64 Hz could reduce parameter estimate uncertainties considerably from those achievable by fitting either alone. For the four-element models, use of an independent, but noisy, measure of static compliance was assessed as a constraint on model parameters. This may allow acceptable parameter uncertainties for a minimum frequency of 0.275-0.375 Hz rather than 0.125 Hz. This reduces data acquisition requirements from a 16- to a 5.33- to 8-s breath holding period. These results are approximations, and the impact of using the linearized approximation for the confidence regions is discussed.

Summary Findings from the AVT-191 Project to Assess Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Military Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benek, John A.; Luckring, James M.

2017-01-01

A NATO symposium held in Greece in 2008 identified many promising sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification technologies, but the maturity and suitability of these methods for realistic applications was not clear. The NATO Science and Technology Organization, Task Group AVT-191 was established to evaluate the maturity and suitability of various sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods for application to realistic vehicle development problems. The program ran from 2011 to 2015, and the work was organized into four discipline-centric teams: external aerodynamics, internal aerodynamics, aeroelasticity, and hydrodynamics. This paper summarizes findings and lessons learned from the task group.

Sensitivity of Ocean Chemistry and Oxygen Change to the Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, L.; Wang, S.; Zheng, M.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

With increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. In particular, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would affect the projection of ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To examine the effect of climate change on ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry, we used an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform simulations that are driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration pathway of RCP 8.5 with climate sensitivity varying from 0.0°C to 4.5 °C. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. Our simulations show that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude, to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

A Single Bout of Aerobic Exercise Reduces Anxiety Sensitivity But Not Intolerance of Uncertainty or Distress Tolerance: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

LeBouthillier, Daniel M; Asmundson, Gordon J G

2015-01-01

Several mechanisms have been posited for the anxiolytic effects of exercise, including reductions in anxiety sensitivity through interoceptive exposure. Studies on aerobic exercise lend support to this hypothesis; however, research investigating aerobic exercise in comparison to placebo, the dose-response relationship between aerobic exercise anxiety sensitivity, the efficacy of aerobic exercise on the spectrum of anxiety sensitivity and the effect of aerobic exercise on other related constructs (e.g. intolerance of uncertainty, distress tolerance) is lacking. We explored reductions in anxiety sensitivity and related constructs following a single session of exercise in a community sample using a randomized controlled trial design. Forty-one participants completed 30 min of aerobic exercise or a placebo stretching control. Anxiety sensitivity, intolerance of uncertainty and distress tolerance were measured at baseline, post-intervention and 3-day and 7-day follow-ups. Individuals in the aerobic exercise group, but not the control group, experienced significant reductions with moderate effect sizes in all dimensions of anxiety sensitivity. Intolerance of uncertainty and distress tolerance remained unchanged in both groups. Our trial supports the efficacy of aerobic exercise in uniquely reducing anxiety sensitivity in individuals with varying levels of the trait and highlights the importance of empirically validating the use of aerobic exercise to address specific mental health vulnerabilities. Aerobic exercise may have potential as a temporary substitute for psychotherapy aimed at reducing anxiety-related psychopathology.

CAST FLOOR WITH VIEW OF TORPEDO LADLE (BENEATH CAST FLOOR) ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

CAST FLOOR WITH VIEW OF TORPEDO LADLE (BENEATH CAST FLOOR) AND KEEPERS OF THE CAST HOUSE FLOOR, S.L. KIMBROUGH AND DAVID HOLMES. - U.S. Steel, Fairfield Works, Blast Furnace No. 8, North of Valley Road, West of Ensley-Pleasant Grove Road, Fairfield, Jefferson County, AL

Role of conventional radiology and MRi defecography of pelvic floor hernias

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Purpose of the study is to define the role of conventional radiology and MRI in the evaluation of pelvic floor hernias in female pelvic floor disorders. Methods A MEDLINE and PubMed search was performed for journals before March 2013 with MeSH major terms 'MR Defecography' and 'pelvic floor hernias'. Results The prevalence of pelvic floor hernias at conventional radiology was higher if compared with that at MRI. Concerning the hernia content, there were significantly more enteroceles and sigmoidoceles on conventional radiology than on MRI, whereas, in relation to the hernia development modalities, the prevalence of elytroceles, edroceles, and Douglas' hernias at conventional radiology was significantly higher than that at MRI. Conclusions MRI shows lower sensitivity than conventional radiology in the detection of pelvic floor hernias development. The less-invasive MRI may have a role in a better evaluation of the entire pelvic anatomy and pelvic organ interaction especially in patients with multicompartmental defects, planned for surgery. PMID:24267789

Sensitivity of land surface modeling to parameters: An uncertainty quantification method applied to the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricciuto, D. M.; Mei, R.; Mao, J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.

2015-12-01

Uncertainties in land parameters could have important impacts on simulated water and energy fluxes and land surface states, which will consequently affect atmospheric and biogeochemical processes. Therefore, quantification of such parameter uncertainties using a land surface model is the first step towards better understanding of predictive uncertainty in Earth system models. In this study, we applied a random-sampling, high-dimensional model representation (RS-HDMR) method to analyze the sensitivity of simulated photosynthesis, surface energy fluxes and surface hydrological components to selected land parameters in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Because of the large computational expense of conducting ensembles of global gridded model simulations, we used the results of a previous cluster analysis to select one thousand representative land grid cells for simulation. Plant functional type (PFT)-specific uniform prior ranges for land parameters were determined using expert opinion and literature survey, and samples were generated with a quasi-Monte Carlo approach-Sobol sequence. Preliminary analysis of 1024 simulations suggested that four PFT-dependent parameters (including slope of the conductance-photosynthesis relationship, specific leaf area at canopy top, leaf C:N ratio and fraction of leaf N in RuBisco) are the dominant sensitive parameters for photosynthesis, surface energy and water fluxes across most PFTs, but with varying importance rankings. On the other hand, for surface ans sub-surface runoff, PFT-independent parameters, such as the depth-dependent decay factors for runoff, play more important roles than the previous four PFT-dependent parameters. Further analysis by conditioning the results on different seasons and years are being conducted to provide guidance on how climate variability and change might affect such sensitivity. This is the first step toward coupled simulations including biogeochemical processes, atmospheric processes

Integrating model behavior, optimization, and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis: overview and application of the MOUSE software toolbox

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper provides an overview of the Model Optimization, Uncertainty, and SEnsitivity Analysis (MOUSE) software application, an open-source, Java-based toolbox of visual and numerical analysis components for the evaluation of environmental models. MOUSE is based on the OPTAS model calibration syst...

A framework for optimization and quantification of uncertainty and sensitivity for developing carbon capture systems

DOE PAGES

Eslick, John C.; Ng, Brenda; Gao, Qianwen; ...

2014-12-31

Under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), a Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity (FOQUS) has been developed. This tool enables carbon capture systems to be rapidly synthesized and rigorously optimized, in an environment that accounts for and propagates uncertainties in parameters and models. FOQUS currently enables (1) the development of surrogate algebraic models utilizing the ALAMO algorithm, which can be used for superstructure optimization to identify optimal process configurations, (2) simulation-based optimization utilizing derivative free optimization (DFO) algorithms with detailed black-box process models, and (3) rigorous uncertainty quantification throughmore » PSUADE. FOQUS utilizes another CCSI technology, the Turbine Science Gateway, to manage the thousands of simulated runs necessary for optimization and UQ. Thus, this computational framework has been demonstrated for the design and analysis of a solid sorbent based carbon capture system.« less

New features and improved uncertainty analysis in the NEA nuclear data sensitivity tool (NDaST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyrda, J.; Soppera, N.; Hill, I.; Bossant, M.; Gulliford, J.

2017-09-01

Following the release and initial testing period of the NEA's Nuclear Data Sensitivity Tool [1], new features have been designed and implemented in order to expand its uncertainty analysis capabilities. The aim is to provide a free online tool for integral benchmark testing, that is both efficient and comprehensive, meeting the needs of the nuclear data and benchmark testing communities. New features include access to P1 sensitivities for neutron scattering angular distribution [2] and constrained Chi sensitivities for the prompt fission neutron energy sampling. Both of these are compatible with covariance data accessed via the JANIS nuclear data software, enabling propagation of the resultant uncertainties in keff to a large series of integral experiment benchmarks. These capabilities are available using a number of different covariance libraries e.g., ENDF/B, JEFF, JENDL and TENDL, allowing comparison of the broad range of results it is possible to obtain. The IRPhE database of reactor physics measurements is now also accessible within the tool in addition to the criticality benchmarks from ICSBEP. Other improvements include the ability to determine and visualise the energy dependence of a given calculated result in order to better identify specific regions of importance or high uncertainty contribution. Sorting and statistical analysis of the selected benchmark suite is now also provided. Examples of the plots generated by the software are included to illustrate such capabilities. Finally, a number of analytical expressions, for example Maxwellian and Watt fission spectra will be included. This will allow the analyst to determine the impact of varying such distributions within the data evaluation, either through adjustment of parameters within the expressions, or by comparison to a more general probability distribution fitted to measured data. The impact of such changes is verified through calculations which are compared to a `direct' measurement found by

31. Stair Plans / First Floor, Second Floor, Section Stair ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

31. Stair Plans / First Floor, Second Floor, Section Stair Bulkhead, F.S. Tread & Riser (drawing 8) - Whittier State School, Hospital & Receiving Building, 11850 East Whittier Boulevard, Whittier, Los Angeles County, CA

Climate Sensitivity Controls Uncertainty in Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurgers, Guy; Ahlström, Anders; Arneth, Almut; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Smith, Benjamin

2018-05-01

For the 21st century, carbon cycle models typically project an increase of terrestrial carbon with increasing atmospheric CO2 and a decrease with the accompanying climate change. However, these estimates are poorly constrained, primarily because they typically rely on a limited number of emission and climate scenarios. Here we explore a wide range of combinations of CO2 rise and climate change and assess their likelihood with the climate change responses obtained from climate models. Our results demonstrate that the terrestrial carbon uptake depends critically on the climate sensitivity of individual climate models, representing a large uncertainty of model estimates. In our simulations, the terrestrial biosphere is unlikely to become a strong source of carbon with any likely combination of CO2 and climate change in the absence of land use change, but the fraction of the emissions taken up by the terrestrial biosphere will decrease drastically with higher emissions.

Pilot study to examine use of transverse vibration nondestructive evaluation for assessing floor systems

Treesearch

Zhiyong Cai; Robert J. Ross; Michael O. Hunt; Lawrence A. Soltis

2002-01-01

Evaluation of existing timber structures requires procedures to evaluate in situ structural members and components. This report evaluates the transverse vibration response of laboratory-built floor systems with new and salvaged joists. The objectives were to 1) compare floor system response to individual member response; 2) examine response sensitivity to location of...

16. THIRD FLOOR BLDG. 28A, DETAIL CUTOUT IN FLOOR FOR ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

16. THIRD FLOOR BLDG. 28A, DETAIL CUTOUT IN FLOOR FOR WOOD BLOCK FLOORING LOOKING EAST. - Fafnir Bearing Plant, Bounded on North side by Myrtle Street, on South side by Orange Street, on East side by Booth Street & on West side by Grove Street, New Britain, Hartford County, CT

SU-E-T-292: Sensitivity of Fractionated Lung IMPT Treatments to Setup Uncertainties and Motion Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dowdell, S; Grassberger, C; Paganetti, H

2014-06-01

Purpose: Evaluate the sensitivity of intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) lung treatments to systematic and random setup uncertainties combined with motion effects. Methods: Treatment plans with single-field homogeneity restricted to ±20% (IMPT-20%) were compared to plans with no restriction (IMPT-full). 4D Monte Carlo simulations were performed for 10 lung patients using the patient CT geometry with either ±5mm systematic or random setup uncertainties applied over a 35 × 2.5Gy(RBE) fractionated treatment course. Intra-fraction, inter-field and inter-fraction motions were investigated. 50 fractionated treatments with systematic or random setup uncertainties applied to each fraction were generated for both IMPT delivery methods and threemore » energy-dependent spot sizes (big spots - BS σ=18-9mm, intermediate spots - IS σ=11-5mm, small spots - SS σ=4-2mm). These results were compared to a Monte Carlo recalculation of the original treatment plan, with results presented as the difference in EUD (ΔEUD), V{sub 95} (ΔV{sub 95}) and target homogeneity (ΔD{sub 1}–D{sub 99}) between the 4D simulations and the Monte Carlo calculation on the planning CT. Results: The standard deviations in the ΔEUD were 1.95±0.47(BS), 1.85±0.66(IS) and 1.31±0.35(SS) times higher in IMPT-full compared to IMPT-20% when ±5mm systematic setup uncertainties were applied. The ΔV{sub 95} variations were also 1.53±0.26(BS), 1.60±0.50(IS) and 1.38±0.38(SS) times higher for IMPT-full. For random setup uncertainties, the standard deviations of the ΔEUD from 50 simulated fractionated treatments were 1.94±0.90(BS), 2.13±1.08(IS) and 1.45±0.57(SS) times higher in IMPTfull compared to IMPT-20%. For all spot sizes considered, the ΔD{sub 1}-D{sub 99} coincided within the uncertainty limits for the two IMPT delivery methods, with the mean value always higher for IMPT-full. Statistical analysis showed significant differences between the IMPT-full and IMPT-20% dose distributions

The Relationship of Cultural Similarity, Communication Effectiveness and Uncertainty Reduction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koester, Jolene; Olebe, Margaret

To investigate the relationship of cultural similarity/dissimilarity, communication effectiveness, and communication variables associated with uncertainty reduction theory, a study examined two groups of students--a multinational group living on an "international floor" in a dormitory at a state university and an unrelated group of U.S.…

Coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data on capture zone uncertainty analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rahman, A.; Tsai, F.T.-C.; White, C.D.; Willson, C.S.

2008-01-01

This study investigates capture zone uncertainty that relates to the coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data. Semivariogram uncertainty is represented by the uncertainty in structural parameters (range, sill, and nugget). We used the beta distribution function to derive the prior distributions of structural parameters. The probability distributions of structural parameters were further updated through the Bayesian approach with the Gaussian likelihood functions. Cokriging of noncollocated pumping test data and electrical resistivity data was conducted to better estimate hydraulic conductivity through autosemivariograms and pseudo-cross-semivariogram. Sensitivities of capture zone variability with respect to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, porosity and aquifer thickness were analyzed using ANOVA. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of capture zone uncertainty at the Chicot aquifer in Southwestern Louisiana, where a regional groundwater flow model was developed. MODFLOW-MODPATH was adopted to delineate the capture zone. The ANOVA results showed that both capture zone area and compactness were sensitive to hydraulic conductivity variation. We concluded that the capture zone uncertainty due to the semivariogram uncertainty is much higher than that due to the kriging uncertainty for given semivariograms. In other words, the sole use of conditional variances of kriging may greatly underestimate the flow response uncertainty. Semivariogram uncertainty should also be taken into account in the uncertainty analysis. ?? 2008 ASCE.

19. First floor, room south of second floor landing, looking ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

19. First floor, room south of second floor landing, looking east - Veterans Administration Center, Officers Duplex Quarters, 5302 East Kellogg (Legal Address); 5500 East Kellogg (Common Address), Wichita, Sedgwick County, KS

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cammarano, Davide; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Wallach, Daniel; Martre, Pierre; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Ruane, Alex C.;

Non-parametric correlative uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis: Application to a Langmuir bimolecular adsorption model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jinchao; Lansford, Joshua; Mironenko, Alexander; Pourkargar, Davood Babaei; Vlachos, Dionisios G.; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

2018-03-01

We propose non-parametric methods for both local and global sensitivity analysis of chemical reaction models with correlated parameter dependencies. The developed mathematical and statistical tools are applied to a benchmark Langmuir competitive adsorption model on a close packed platinum surface, whose parameters, estimated from quantum-scale computations, are correlated and are limited in size (small data). The proposed mathematical methodology employs gradient-based methods to compute sensitivity indices. We observe that ranking influential parameters depends critically on whether or not correlations between parameters are taken into account. The impact of uncertainty in the correlation and the necessity of the proposed non-parametric perspective are demonstrated.

Moving Beyond 2% Uncertainty: A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

2017-03-08

Remote sensing of wind using lidar is revolutionizing wind energy. However, current generations of wind lidar are ascribed a climatic value of uncertainty, which is based on a poor description of lidar sensitivity to external conditions. In this presentation, we show how it is important to consider the complete lidar measurement process to define the measurement uncertainty, which in turn offers the ability to define a much more granular and dynamic measurement uncertainty. This approach is a progression from the 'white box' lidar uncertainty method.

Brief Report: Effects of Sensory Sensitivity and Intolerance of Uncertainty on Anxiety in Mothers of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uljarevic, Mirko; Carrington, Sarah; Leekam, Susan

2016-01-01

This study examined the relations between anxiety and individual characteristics of sensory sensitivity (SS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in mothers of children with ASD. The mothers of 50 children completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale and the IU Scale. Anxiety was associated with both SS and…

18. MAIN FLOOR HOLDING TANKS Main floor, looking at ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

18. MAIN FLOOR - HOLDING TANKS Main floor, looking at holding tanks against the west wall, from which sluice gates are seen protruding. Right foreground-wooden holding tanks. Note narrow wooden flumes through which fish were sluiced into holding and brining tanks. - Hovden Cannery, 886 Cannery Row, Monterey, Monterey County, CA

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation in ash concentration simulations and tephra deposit daily forecasted at Mt. Etna, in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prestifilippo, Michele; Scollo, Simona; Tarantola, Stefano

2015-04-01

The uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts may depend on our knowledge of the model input parameters and our capability to represent the dynamic of an incoming eruption. Forecasts help governments to reduce risks associated with volcanic eruptions and for this reason different kinds of analysis that help to understand the effect that each input parameter has on model outputs are necessary. We present an iterative approach based on the sequential combination of sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation procedure and Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis, applied to the lagrangian volcanic ash dispersal model PUFF. We modify the main input parameters as the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the plume thickness, the shape of the eruption column, the sedimentation models and the diffusion coefficient, perform thousands of simulations and analyze the results. The study is carried out on two different Etna scenarios: the sub-plinian eruption of 22 July 1998 that formed an eruption column rising 12 km above sea level and lasted some minutes and the lava fountain eruption having features similar to the 2011-2013 events that produced eruption column high up to several kilometers above sea level and lasted some hours. Sensitivity analyses and uncertainty estimation results help us to address the measurements that volcanologists should perform during volcanic crisis to reduce the model uncertainty.

13. Bottom floor, tower interior showing concrete floor and cast ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

13. Bottom floor, tower interior showing concrete floor and cast iron bases for oil butts (oil butts removed when lighthouse lamp was converted to electric power.) - Block Island Southeast Light, Spring Street & Mohegan Trail at Mohegan Bluffs, New Shoreham, Washington County, RI

Investigation of Concrete Floor Vibration Using Heel-Drop Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azaman, N. A. Mohd; Ghafar, N. H. Abd; Azhar, A. F.; Fauzi, A. A.; Ismail, H. A.; Syed Idrus, S. S.; Mokhjar, S. S.; Hamid, F. F. Abd

2018-04-01

In recent years, there is an increased in floor vibration problems of structures like residential and commercial building. Vibration is defined as a serviceability issue related to the comfort of the occupant or damage equipment. Human activities are the main source of vibration in the building and it could affect the human comfort and annoyance of residents in the building when the vibration exceed the recommend level. A new building, Madrasah Tahfiz located at Yong Peng have vibration problem when load subjected on the first floor of the building. However, the limitation of vibration occurs on building is unknown. Therefore, testing is needed to determine the vibration behaviour (frequency, damping ratio and mode shape) of the building. Heel-drop with pace 2Hz was used in field measurement to obtain the vibration response. Since, the heel-drop test results would vary in light of person performance, test are carried out three time to reduce uncertainty. Natural frequency from Frequency Response Function analysis (FRF) is 17.4Hz, 16.8, 17.4Hz respectively for each test.

Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris": an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

2018-02-01

In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical) trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend-dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

Assessing model sensitivity and uncertainty across multiple Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. It is necessary that we understand which factors are driving this uncertainty. The Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments have equipped us with a rich data source that can be used to calibrate and validate these model predictions. To identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences we performed model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis across ambient and elevated CO2 treatments using the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon (DALEC) model and the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2), two process-based models ranging from low to high complexity respectively. These modeled process responses were compared to experimental data from the Kennedy Space Center Open Top Chamber Experiment, the Nevada Desert Free Air CO2 Enrichment Facility, the Rhinelander FACE experiment, the Wyoming Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment Experiment, the Duke Forest Face experiment and the Oak Ridge Experiment on CO2 Enrichment. By leveraging data access proxy and data tilling services provided by the BrownDog data curation project alongside analysis modules available in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), we produced automated, repeatable benchmarking workflows that are generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Combining the observed patterns of uncertainty between the two models with results of the recent FACE-model data synthesis project (FACE-MDS) can help identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. These findings can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide informative starting point for data assimilation.

Stochastic optimization of intensity modulated radiotherapy to account for uncertainties in patient sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kåver, Gereon; Lind, Bengt K.; Löf, Johan; Liander, Anders; Brahme, Anders

1999-12-01

The aim of the present work is to better account for the known uncertainties in radiobiological response parameters when optimizing radiation therapy. The radiation sensitivity of a specific patient is usually unknown beyond the expectation value and possibly the standard deviation that may be derived from studies on groups of patients. Instead of trying to find the treatment with the highest possible probability of a desirable outcome for a patient of average sensitivity, it is more desirable to maximize the expectation value of the probability for the desirable outcome over the possible range of variation of the radiation sensitivity of the patient. Such a stochastic optimization will also have to consider the distribution function of the radiation sensitivity and the larger steepness of the response for the individual patient. The results of stochastic optimization are also compared with simpler methods such as using biological response `margins' to account for the range of sensitivity variation. By using stochastic optimization, the absolute gain will typically be of the order of a few per cent and the relative improvement compared with non-stochastic optimization is generally less than about 10 per cent. The extent of this gain varies with the level of interpatient variability as well as with the difficulty and complexity of the case studied. Although the dose changes are rather small (<5 Gy) there is a strong desire to make treatment plans more robust, and tolerant of the likely range of variation of the radiation sensitivity of each individual patient. When more accurate predictive assays of the radiation sensitivity for each patient become available, the need to consider the range of variations can be reduced considerably.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Electronics Cooling Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodla, Karthik K.; Murthy, Jayathi Y.; Garimella, Suresh V.

Optimization under uncertainty is a powerful methodology used in design and optimization to produce robust, reliable designs. Such an optimization methodology, employed when the input quantities of interest are uncertain, produces output uncertainties, helping the designer choose input parameters that would result in satisfactory thermal solutions. Apart from providing basic statistical information such as mean and standard deviation in the output quantities, auxiliary data from an uncertainty based optimization, such as local and global sensitivities, help the designer decide the input parameter(s) to which the output quantity of interest is most sensitive. This helps the design of experiments based on the most sensitive input parameter(s). A further crucial output of such a methodology is the solution to the inverse problem - finding the allowable uncertainty range in the input parameter(s), given an acceptable uncertainty range in the output quantity of interest...

Use of social network analysis and global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to better understand an influenza outbreak.

PubMed

Liu, Jianhua; Jiang, Hongbo; Zhang, Hao; Guo, Chun; Wang, Lei; Yang, Jing; Nie, Shaofa

2017-06-27

In the summer of 2014, an influenza A(H3N2) outbreak occurred in Yichang city, Hubei province, China. A retrospective study was conducted to collect and interpret hospital and epidemiological data on it using social network analysis and global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Results for degree (χ2=17.6619, P<0.0001) and betweenness(χ2=21.4186, P<0.0001) centrality suggested that the selection of sampling objects were different between traditional epidemiological methods and newer statistical approaches. Clique and network diagrams demonstrated that the outbreak actually consisted of two independent transmission networks. Sensitivity analysis showed that the contact coefficient (k) was the most important factor in the dynamic model. Using uncertainty analysis, we were able to better understand the properties and variations over space and time on the outbreak. We concluded that use of newer approaches were significantly more efficient for managing and controlling infectious diseases outbreaks, as well as saving time and public health resources, and could be widely applied on similar local outbreaks.

IMPROVING PARTICULATE MATTER SOURCE APPORTIONMENT FOR HEALTH STUDIES: A TRAINED RECEPTOR MODELING APPROACH WITH SENSITIVITY, UNCERTAINTY AND SPATIAL ANALYSES

EPA Science Inventory

An approach for conducting PM source apportionment will be developed, tested, and applied that directly addresses limitations in current SA methods, in particular variability, biases, and intensive resource requirements. Uncertainties in SA results and sensitivities to SA inpu...

Mixed-Up Floors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Richard

2001-01-01

Examines the maintenance management problems inherent in cleaning multiple flooring materials revealing the need for school officials to keep it simple when choosing flooring types. Also highlighted is a carpet recycling program used by Wright State University (Ohio). (GR)

18. FOURTH FLOOR BLDG. 28, RAISED CONCRETE SLAB FLOOR WITH ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

18. FOURTH FLOOR BLDG. 28, RAISED CONCRETE SLAB FLOOR WITH BLOCKS AND PULLEYS OVERHEAD LOOKING NORTHEAST. - Fafnir Bearing Plant, Bounded on North side by Myrtle Street, on South side by Orange Street, on East side by Booth Street & on West side by Grove Street, New Britain, Hartford County, CT

Sensitivity of collective action to uncertainty about climate tipping points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Scott; Dannenberg, Astrid

2014-01-01

Despite more than two decades of diplomatic effort, concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to trend upwards, creating the risk that we may someday cross a threshold for `dangerous' climate change. Although climate thresholds are very uncertain, new research is trying to devise `early warning signals' of an approaching tipping point. This research offers a tantalizing promise: whereas collective action fails when threshold uncertainty is large, reductions in this uncertainty may bring about the behavioural change needed to avert a climate `catastrophe'. Here we present the results of an experiment, rooted in a game-theoretic model, showing that behaviour differs markedly either side of a dividing line for threshold uncertainty. On one side of the dividing line, where threshold uncertainty is relatively large, free riding proves irresistible and trust illusive, making it virtually inevitable that the tipping point will be crossed. On the other side, where threshold uncertainty is small, the incentive to coordinate is strong and trust more robust, often leading the players to avoid crossing the tipping point. Our results show that uncertainty must be reduced to this `good' side of the dividing line to stimulate the behavioural shift needed to avoid `dangerous' climate change.

Application of Monte Carlo Methods to Perform Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis on Inverse Water-Rock Reactions with NETPATH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McGraw, David; Hershey, Ronald L.

Methods were developed to quantify uncertainty and sensitivity for NETPATH inverse water-rock reaction models and to calculate dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon-14 groundwater travel times. The NETPATH models calculate upgradient groundwater mixing fractions that produce the downgradient target water chemistry along with amounts of mineral phases that are either precipitated or dissolved. Carbon-14 groundwater travel times are calculated based on the upgradient source-water fractions, carbonate mineral phase changes, and isotopic fractionation. Custom scripts and statistical code were developed for this study to facilitate modifying input parameters, running the NETPATH simulations, extracting relevant output, postprocessing the results, and producing graphs and summaries.more » The scripts read userspecified values for each constituent’s coefficient of variation, distribution, sensitivity parameter, maximum dissolution or precipitation amounts, and number of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo methods for analysis of parametric uncertainty assign a distribution to each uncertain variable, sample from those distributions, and evaluate the ensemble output. The uncertainty in input affected the variability of outputs, namely source-water mixing, phase dissolution and precipitation amounts, and carbon-14 travel time. Although NETPATH may provide models that satisfy the constraints, it is up to the geochemist to determine whether the results are geochemically reasonable. Two example water-rock reaction models from previous geochemical reports were considered in this study. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the change in output caused by a small change in input, one constituent at a time. Results were standardized to allow for sensitivity comparisons across all inputs, which results in a representative value for each scenario. The approach yielded insight into the uncertainty in water-rock reactions and travel times. For example, there was little

Experimental and analytical studies on the vibration serviceability of pre-stressed cable RC truss floor systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xuhong; Cao, Liang; Chen, Y. Frank; Liu, Jiepeng; Li, Jiang

2016-01-01

The developed pre-stressed cable reinforced concrete truss (PCT) floor system is a relatively new floor structure, which can be applied to various long-span structures such as buildings, stadiums, and bridges. Due to the lighter mass and longer span, floor vibration would be a serviceability concern problem for such systems. In this paper, field testing and theoretical analysis for the PCT floor system were conducted. Specifically, heel-drop impact and walking tests were performed on the PCT floor system to capture the dynamic properties including natural frequencies, mode shapes, damping ratios, and acceleration response. The PCT floor system was found to be a low frequency (<10 Hz) and low damping (damping ratio<2 percent) structural system. The comparison of the experimental results with the AISC's limiting values indicates that the investigated PCT system exhibits satisfactory vibration perceptibility, however. The analytical solution obtained from the weighted residual method agrees well with the experimental results and thus validates the proposed analytical expression. Sensitivity studies using the analytical solution were also conducted to investigate the vibration performance of the PCT floor system.

VIEW OF WIDE STAIR TO SECOND FLOOR FROM GROUND FLOOR. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

VIEW OF WIDE STAIR TO SECOND FLOOR FROM GROUND FLOOR. VIEW FACING SOUTH - U.S. Naval Base, Pearl Harbor, Ford Island Polaris Missile Lab & U.S. Fleet Ballistic Missile Submarine Training Center, Between Lexington Boulvevard and the sea plane ramps on the southwest side of Ford Island, Pearl City, Honolulu County, HI

Comparison of slime-producing coagulase-negative Staphylococcus colonization rates on vinyl and ceramic tile flooring materials.

PubMed

Yazgi, H; Uyanik, M H; Ayyildiz, A

2009-01-01

This study investigated the colonization of slime-producing coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS) in 80 patient wards in Turkey (40 vinyl and 40 ceramic tile floors). A total of 480 samples that included 557 CoNS isolates were obtained. Slime production was investigated with the Christensen method and methicillin-susceptibility was tested by the disk-diffusion method. There was a significant difference in the percentage of slime-producing CoNS isolates on vinyl (12.4%) versus ceramic tile flooring (4.4%). From vinyl flooring, the percentage of slime producing methicillin-resistant CoNS (MRCoNS) (8.9%) was significantly higher than for methicillin-sensitive CoNS (MSCoNS) (3.6%), whereas there was no difference from ceramic tile flooring (2.5% MRCoNS versus 1.8% MSCoNS). The most commonly isolated slime-producing CoNS species was S. epidermidis on both types of flooring. It is concluded that vinyl flooring seems to be a more suitable colonization surface for slime-producing CoNS than ceramic tile floors. Further studies are needed to investigate bacterial strains colonized on flooring materials, which are potential pathogens for nosocomial infections.

Assessing uncertainty in ecological systems using global sensitivity analyses: a case example of simulated wolf reintroduction effects on elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fieberg, J.; Jenkins, Kurt J.

2005-01-01

Often landmark conservation decisions are made despite an incomplete knowledge of system behavior and inexact predictions of how complex ecosystems will respond to management actions. For example, predicting the feasibility and likely effects of restoring top-level carnivores such as the gray wolf (Canis lupus) to North American wilderness areas is hampered by incomplete knowledge of the predator-prey system processes and properties. In such cases, global sensitivity measures, such as Sobola?? indices, allow one to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on model predictions. Sobola?? indices are calculated by decomposing the variance in model predictions (due to parameter uncertainty) into main effects of model parameters and their higher order interactions. Model parameters with large sensitivity indices can then be identified for further study in order to improve predictive capabilities. Here, we illustrate the use of Sobola?? sensitivity indices to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty on the predicted decline of elk (Cervus elaphus) population sizes following a hypothetical reintroduction of wolves to Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. The strength of density dependence acting on survival of adult elk and magnitude of predation were the most influential factors controlling elk population size following a simulated wolf reintroduction. In particular, the form of density dependence in natural survival rates and the per-capita predation rate together accounted for over 90% of variation in simulated elk population trends. Additional research on wolf predation rates on elk and natural compensations in prey populations is needed to reliably predict the outcome of predatora??prey system behavior following wolf reintroductions.

23. FIFTH FLOOR BLDG. 28B, DETAIL WOOD BLOCK FLOORING LOOKING ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

23. FIFTH FLOOR BLDG. 28B, DETAIL WOOD BLOCK FLOORING LOOKING WEST. - Fafnir Bearing Plant, Bounded on North side by Myrtle Street, on South side by Orange Street, on East side by Booth Street & on West side by Grove Street, New Britain, Hartford County, CT

24. FIFTH FLOOR BLDG. 28B, DETAIL WOOD BLOCK FLOORING LOOKING ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

24. FIFTH FLOOR BLDG. 28B, DETAIL WOOD BLOCK FLOORING LOOKING NORTH. - Fafnir Bearing Plant, Bounded on North side by Myrtle Street, on South side by Orange Street, on East side by Booth Street & on West side by Grove Street, New Britain, Hartford County, CT

The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2014-01-01

This paper presents the formulation of an uncertainty quantification challenge problem consisting of five subproblems. These problems focus on key aspects of uncertainty characterization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, extreme-case analysis, and robust design.

ETR ELECTRICAL BUILDING, TRA648. FLOOR PLANS FOR FIRST FLOOR AND ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

ETR ELECTRICAL BUILDING, TRA-648. FLOOR PLANS FOR FIRST FLOOR AND BASEMENT. SECTIONS. KAISER ETR-5528-MTR-648-A-2, 12/1955. INL INDEX NO. 532-0648-00-486-101402, REV. 6. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Reactor Area, Materials & Engineering Test Reactors, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

2017-12-01

The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques of SCALE/TSUNAMI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Mueller, Don

2011-01-01

The Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) includes Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI). The TSUNAMI code suite can quantify the predicted change in system responses, such as k{sub eff}, reactivity differences, or ratios of fluxes or reaction rates, due to changes in the energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific cross-section data. Where uncertainties in the neutron cross-section data are available, the sensitivity of the system to the cross-section data can be applied to propagate the uncertainties in the cross-section data to an uncertainty in the system response. Uncertainty quantification ismore » useful for identifying potential sources of computational biases and highlighting parameters important to code validation. Traditional validation techniques often examine one or more average physical parameters to characterize a system and identify applicable benchmark experiments. However, with TSUNAMI correlation coefficients are developed by propagating the uncertainties in neutron cross-section data to uncertainties in the computed responses for experiments and safety applications through sensitivity coefficients. The bias in the experiments, as a function of their correlation coefficient with the intended application, is extrapolated to predict the bias and bias uncertainty in the application through trending analysis or generalized linear least squares techniques, often referred to as 'data adjustment.' Even with advanced tools to identify benchmark experiments, analysts occasionally find that the application models include some feature or material for which adequately similar benchmark experiments do not exist to support validation. For example, a criticality safety analyst may want to take credit for the presence of fission products in spent nuclear fuel. In such cases, analysts sometimes rely on 'expert judgment' to select

Uncertainty, Sensitivity Analysis, and Causal Identification in the Arctic using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble of the HiLAT Climate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

Coupled climate models have a large number of input parameters that can affect output uncertainty. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of sea ice proper:es and Arc:c related climate variables to 5 parameters in the HiLAT climate model: air-ocean turbulent exchange parameter (C), conversion of water vapor to clouds (cldfrc_rhminl) and of ice crystals to snow (micro_mg_dcs), snow thermal conduc:vity (ksno), and maximum snow grain size (rsnw_mlt). We used an elementary effect (EE) approach to rank their importance for output uncertainty. EE is an extension of one-at-a-time sensitivity analyses, but it is more efficient in sampling multi-dimensional parameter spaces. We lookedmore » for emerging relationships among climate variables across the model ensemble, and used causal discovery algorithms to establish potential pathways for those relationships.« less

Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models.

PubMed

Radomyski, Artur; Giubilato, Elisa; Ciffroy, Philippe; Critto, Andrea; Brochot, Céline; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

The study is focused on applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to support the application and evaluation of large exposure models where a significant number of parameters and complex exposure scenarios might be involved. The recently developed MERLIN-Expo exposure modelling tool was applied to probabilistically assess the ecological and human exposure to PCB 126 and 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the Venice lagoon (Italy). The 'Phytoplankton', 'Aquatic Invertebrate', 'Fish', 'Human intake' and PBPK models available in MERLIN-Expo library were integrated to create a specific food web to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation in various aquatic species and in the human body over individual lifetimes from 1932 until 1998. MERLIN-Expo is a high tier exposure modelling tool allowing propagation of uncertainty on the model predictions through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in model output can be further apportioned between parameters by applying built-in sensitivity analysis tools. In this study, uncertainty has been extensively addressed in the distribution functions to describe the data input and the effect on model results by applying sensitivity analysis techniques (screening Morris method, regression analysis, and variance-based method EFAST). In the exposure scenario developed for the Lagoon of Venice, the concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB 126 in human blood turned out to be mainly influenced by a combination of parameters (half-lives of the chemicals, body weight variability, lipid fraction, food assimilation efficiency), physiological processes (uptake/elimination rates), environmental exposure concentrations (sediment, water, food) and eating behaviours (amount of food eaten). In conclusion, this case study demonstrated feasibility of MERLIN-Expo to be successfully employed in integrated, high tier exposure assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Juling Crater's Floor

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-03-14

This view from NASA's Dawn mission shows the floor of Ceres' Juling Crater. The crater floor shows evidence of the flow of ice and rock, similar to rock glaciers in Earth's polar regions. Dawn acquired the picture with its framing camera on Aug. 30, 2016. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21920

Status Report on Scoping Reactor Physics and Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis of LR-0 Reactor Molten Salt Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Nicholas R.; Mueller, Donald E.; Patton, Bruce W.

2016-08-31

Experiments are being planned at Research Centre Rež (RC Rež) to use the FLiBe (2 7LiF-BeF 2) salt from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) to perform reactor physics measurements in the LR-0 low power nuclear reactor. These experiments are intended to inform on neutron spectral effects and nuclear data uncertainties for advanced reactor systems utilizing FLiBe salt in a thermal neutron energy spectrum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis of these planned experiments as part of the ongoing collaboration between the United States and the Czech Republic on civilian nuclear energy research and development. Themore » objective of these analyses is to produce the sensitivity of neutron multiplication to cross section data on an energy-dependent basis for specific nuclides. This report provides a status update on the S/U analyses of critical experiments at the LR-0 Reactor relevant to fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor (FHR) and liquid-fueled molten salt reactor (MSR) concepts. The S/U analyses will be used to inform design of FLiBe-based experiments using the salt from MSRE.« less

Uncertainty exposure causes behavioural sensitization and increases risky decision-making in male rats: toward modelling gambling disorder.

PubMed

Zeeb, Fiona D; Li, Zhaoxia; Fisher, Daniel C; Zack, Martin H; Fletcher, Paul J

2017-11-01

An animal model of gambling disorder, previously known as pathological gambling, could advance our understanding of the disorder and help with treatment development. We hypothesized that repeated exposure to uncertainty during gambling induces behavioural and dopamine (DA) sensitization - similar to chronic exposure to drugs of abuse. Uncertainty exposure (UE) may also increase risky decision-making in an animal model of gambling disorder. Male Sprague Dawley rats received 56 UE sessions, during which animals responded for saccharin according to an unpredictable, variable ratio schedule of reinforcement (VR group). Control animals responded on a predictable, fixed ratio schedule (FR group). Rats yoked to receive unpredictable reward were also included (Y group). Animals were then tested on the Rat Gambling Task (rGT), an analogue of the Iowa Gambling Task, to measure decision-making. Compared with the FR group, the VR and Y groups experienced a greater locomotor response following administration of amphetamine. On the rGT, the FR and Y groups preferred the advantageous options over the risky, disadvantageous options throughout testing (40 sessions). However, rats in the VR group did not have a significant preference for the advantageous options during sessions 20-40. Amphetamine had a small, but significant, effect on decision-making only in the VR group. After rGT testing, only the VR group showed greater hyperactivity following administration of amphetamine compared with the FR group. Reward uncertainty was the only gambling feature modelled. Actively responding for uncertain reward likely sensitized the DA system and impaired the ability to make optimal decisions, modelling some aspects of gambling disorder.

ETR, TRA642. FLOOR PLAN UNDER BALCONY ON CONSOLE FLOOR. MOTORGENERATOR ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

ETR, TRA-642. FLOOR PLAN UNDER BALCONY ON CONSOLE FLOOR. MOTOR-GENERATOR SETS AND OTHER ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. PHILLIPS PETROLEUM COMPANY ETR-D-1781, 7/1960. INL INDEX NO. 532-0642-00-706-020384, REV. 1. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Reactor Area, Materials & Engineering Test Reactors, Scoville, Butte County, ID

A&M. TAN607 floor plans. Shows three floor levels of pool, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

A&M. TAN-607 floor plans. Shows three floor levels of pool, hot shop, and warm shop. Includes view of pool vestibule, personnel labyrinth, location of floor rails, and room numbers of office areas, labs, instrument rooms, and stairways. This drawing was re-drawn to show as-built features in 1993. Ralph M. Parsons 902-3-ANP-607-A 96. Date of original: December 1952. Approved by INEEL Classification Office for public release. INEEL index code no. 034-0607-00-693-106748 - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Area North, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hobbs, Michael L.; Romero, Vicente J.

2000-01-01

Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2

[Functional aspects of pelvic floor surgery].

PubMed

Wagenlehner, F M E; Gunnemann, A; Liedl, B; Weidner, W

2009-11-01

Pelvic floor dysfunctions are frequently seen in females. The human pelvic floor is a complex structure and heavily stressed throughout female life. Recent findings in the functional anatomy of the pelvic floor have led to a much better understand-ing, on the basis of which enormous improvements in the therapeutic options have arisen. The pelvic floor activity is regulated by three main muscular forces that are responsible for vaginal tension and suspension of the pelvic floor -organs, bladder and rectum. For different reasons laxity in the vagina or its supporting ligaments as a result of altered connective tissue can distort this functional anatomy. A variety of symptoms can derive from these pelvic floor dysfunctions, such as urinary urge and stress incontinence, abnormal bladder emptying, faecal incontinence, obstructive bowel disease syndrome and pelvic pain. Pelvic floor reconstruction is nowadays driven by the concept that in the case of pelvic floor symptoms restoration of the anatomy will translate into restoration of the physiology and ultimately improve the patients' symptoms. The exact surgical reconstruction of the anatomy is there-fore almost exclusively focused on the restoration of the lax pelvic floor ligaments. An exact identification of the anatomic lesions preoperatively is eminently necessary, to allow for an exact anatomic reconstruction with respect to the muscular forces of the pelvic floor. Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart * New York.

School Flooring Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGrath, John

2012-01-01

With all of the hype that green building is receiving throughout the school facility-management industry, it's easy to overlook some elements that may not be right in front of a building manager's nose. It is helpful to examine the role floor covering plays in a green building project. Flooring is one of the most significant and important systems…

Tangential Floor in a Classroom Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marti, Leyla

2012-01-01

This article examines floor management in two classroom sessions: a task-oriented computer lesson and a literature lesson. Recordings made in the computer lesson show the organization of floor when a task is given to students. Temporary or "incipient" side floors (Jones and Thornborrow, 2004) emerge beside the main floor. In the literature lesson,…

LOFT, TAN650. Service building preamp tower, top three floors. Floor ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

LOFT, TAN-650. Service building pre-amp tower, top three floors. Floor plan, cable mazes, duct labyrinth. Borated water tank enclosure on roof. Kaiser engineers 6413-11-STEP/LOFT-650-A-3. Date: October 1964. INEEL index code no. 036-650-00-486-122215 - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Area North, Scoville, Butte County, ID

21. VIEW OF THE FIRST FLOOR PLAN. THE FIRST FLOOR ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

21. VIEW OF THE FIRST FLOOR PLAN. THE FIRST FLOOR WAS USED FOR DEPLETED AND ENRICHED URANIUM FABRICATION. THE ORIGINAL DRAWING HAS BEEN ARCHIVED ON MICROFILM. THE DRAWING WAS REPRODUCED AT THE BEST QUALITY POSSIBLE. LETTERS AND NUMBERS IN THE CIRCLES INDICATE FOOTER AND/OR COLUMN LOCATIONS. - Rocky Flats Plant, Uranium Rolling & Forming Operations, Southeast section of plant, southeast quadrant of intersection of Central Avenue & Eighth Street, Golden, Jefferson County, CO

23. VIEW OF THE FIRST FLOOR PLAN. THE FIRST FLOOR ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

23. VIEW OF THE FIRST FLOOR PLAN. THE FIRST FLOOR HOUSED ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICES, THE CENTRAL COMPUTING, UTILITY SYSTEMS, ANALYTICAL LABORATORIES, AND MAINTENANCE SHOPS. THE ORIGINAL DRAWING HAS BEEN ARCHIVED ON MICROFILM. THE DRAWING WAS REPRODUCED AT THE BEST QUALITY POSSIBLE. LETTERS AND NUMBERS IN THE CIRCLES INDICATE FOOTER AND/OR COLUMN LOCATIONS. - Rocky Flats Plant, General Manufacturing, Support, Records-Central Computing, Southern portion of Plant, Golden, Jefferson County, CO

22. VIEW OF THE SECOND FLOOR PLAN. THE SECOND FLOOR ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

22. VIEW OF THE SECOND FLOOR PLAN. THE SECOND FLOOR CONTAINS THE AIR PLENUM ND SOME OFFICE SPACE. THE ORIGINAL DRAWING HAS BEEN ARCHIVED ON MICROFILM. THE DRAWING WAS REPRODUCED AT THE BEST QUALITY POSSIBLE. LETTERS AND NUMBERS IN THE CIRCLES INDICATE FOOTER AND/OR COLUMN LOCATIONS. - Rocky Flats Plant, Uranium Rolling & Forming Operations, Southeast section of plant, southeast quadrant of intersection of Central Avenue & Eighth Street, Golden, Jefferson County, CO

Impact of Damping Uncertainty on SEA Model Response Variance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiller, Noah; Cabell, Randolph; Grosveld, Ferdinand

2010-01-01

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is commonly used to predict high-frequency vibroacoustic levels. This statistical approach provides the mean response over an ensemble of random subsystems that share the same gross system properties such as density, size, and damping. Recently, techniques have been developed to predict the ensemble variance as well as the mean response. However these techniques do not account for uncertainties in the system properties. In the present paper uncertainty in the damping loss factor is propagated through SEA to obtain more realistic prediction bounds that account for both ensemble and damping variance. The analysis is performed on a floor-equipped cylindrical test article that resembles an aircraft fuselage. Realistic bounds on the damping loss factor are determined from measurements acquired on the sidewall of the test article. The analysis demonstrates that uncertainties in damping have the potential to significantly impact the mean and variance of the predicted response.

OECD/NEA expert group on uncertainty analysis for criticality safety assessment: Results of benchmark on sensitivity calculation (phase III)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ivanova, T.; Laville, C.; Dyrda, J.

2012-07-01

The sensitivities of the k{sub eff} eigenvalue to neutron cross sections have become commonly used in similarity studies and as part of the validation algorithm for criticality safety assessments. To test calculations of the sensitivity coefficients, a benchmark study (Phase III) has been established by the OECD-NEA/WPNCS/EG UACSA (Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment). This paper presents some sensitivity results generated by the benchmark participants using various computational tools based upon different computational methods: SCALE/TSUNAMI-3D and -1D, MONK, APOLLO2-MORET 5, DRAGON-SUSD3D and MMKKENO. The study demonstrates the performance of the tools. It also illustrates how model simplificationsmore » impact the sensitivity results and demonstrates the importance of 'implicit' (self-shielding) sensitivities. This work has been a useful step towards verification of the existing and developed sensitivity analysis methods. (authors)« less

Automating calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models using the R package Flexible Modeling Environment (FME): SWAT as an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Y.; Liu, S.

2012-01-01

Parameter optimization and uncertainty issues are a great challenge for the application of large environmental models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a physically-based hydrological model for simulating water and nutrient cycles at the watershed scale. In this study, we present a comprehensive modeling environment for SWAT, including automated calibration, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis capabilities through integration with the R package Flexible Modeling Environment (FME). To address challenges (e.g., calling the model in R and transferring variables between Fortran and R) in developing such a two-language coupling framework, 1) we converted the Fortran-based SWAT model to an R function (R-SWAT) using the RFortran platform, and alternatively 2) we compiled SWAT as a Dynamic Link Library (DLL). We then wrapped SWAT (via R-SWAT) with FME to perform complex applications including parameter identifiability, inverse modeling, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the R environment. The final R-SWAT-FME framework has the following key functionalities: automatic initialization of R, running Fortran-based SWAT and R commands in parallel, transferring parameters and model output between SWAT and R, and inverse modeling with visualization. To examine this framework and demonstrate how it works, a case study simulating streamflow in the Cedar River Basin in Iowa in the United Sates was used, and we compared it with the built-in auto-calibration tool of SWAT in parameter optimization. Results indicate that both methods performed well and similarly in searching a set of optimal parameters. Nonetheless, the R-SWAT-FME is more attractive due to its instant visualization, and potential to take advantage of other R packages (e.g., inverse modeling and statistical graphics). The methods presented in the paper are readily adaptable to other model applications that require capability for automated calibration, and sensitivity and uncertainty

A Bayesian-Based Novel Methodology to Generate Reliable Site Response Mapping Sensitive to Data Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, A.; Goto, H.

2017-12-01

The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake caused severe damage in many areas further inside the mainland because of site-amplification. Furukawa district in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan recorded significant spatial differences in ground motion even at sub-kilometer scales. The site responses in the damage zone far exceeded the levels in the hazard maps. A reason why the mismatch occurred is that mapping follow only the mean value at the measurement locations with no regard to the data uncertainties and thus are not always reliable. Our research objective is to develop a methodology to incorporate data uncertainties in mapping and propose a reliable map. The methodology is based on a hierarchical Bayesian modeling of normally-distributed site responses in space where the mean (μ), site-specific variance (σ2) and between-sites variance(s2) parameters are treated as unknowns with a prior distribution. The observation data is artificially created site responses with varying means and variances for 150 seismic events across 50 locations in one-dimensional space. Spatially auto-correlated random effects were added to the mean (μ) using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior. The inferences on the unknown parameters are done using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods from the posterior distribution. The goal is to find reliable estimates of μ sensitive to uncertainties. During initial trials, we observed that the tau (=1/s2) parameter of CAR prior controls the μ estimation. Using a constraint, s = 1/(k×σ), five spatial models with varying k-values were created. We define reliability to be measured by the model likelihood and propose the maximum likelihood model to be highly reliable. The model with maximum likelihood was selected using a 5-fold cross-validation technique. The results show that the maximum likelihood model (μ*) follows the site-specific mean at low uncertainties and converges to the model-mean at higher uncertainties (Fig.1). This result is

Assessing uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameterizations and parameters in WRF affecting simulated surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling over the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Wang, C.; Huang, M.; Berg, L. K.; Duan, Q.; Feng, Z.; Shrivastava, M. B.; Shin, H. H.; Hong, S. Y.

2016-12-01

This study aims to quantify the relative importance and uncertainties of different physical processes and parameters in affecting simulated surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. We used two-legged coupling metrics, which include both terrestrial (soil moisture to surface fluxes) and atmospheric (surface fluxes to atmospheric state or precipitation) legs, to diagnose the land-atmosphere interaction and coupling strength. Observations made using the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility during the GoAmazon field campaign together with satellite and reanalysis data are used to evaluate model performance. To quantify the uncertainty in physical parameterizations, we performed a 120 member ensemble of simulations with the WRF model using a stratified experimental design including 6 cloud microphysics, 3 convection, 6 PBL and surface layer, and 3 land surface schemes. A multiple-way analysis of variance approach is used to quantitatively analyze the inter- and intra-group (scheme) means and variances. To quantify parameter sensitivity, we conducted an additional 256 WRF simulations in which an efficient sampling algorithm is used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space. Three uncertainty quantification approaches are applied for sensitivity analysis (SA) of multiple variables of interest to 20 selected parameters in YSU PBL and MM5 surface layer schemes. Results show consistent parameter sensitivity across different SA methods. We found that 5 out of 20 parameters contribute more than 90% total variance, and first-order effects dominate comparing to the interaction effects. Results of this uncertainty quantification study serve as guidance for better understanding the roles of different physical processes in land-atmosphere interactions, quantifying model uncertainties from various sources such as physical processes, parameters and structural errors, and providing insights for

[Pelvic floor and pregnancy].

PubMed

Fritel, X

2010-05-01

Congenital factor, obesity, aging, pregnancy and childbirth are the main risk factors for female pelvic floor disorders (urinary incontinence, anal incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse, dyspareunia). Vaginal delivery may cause injury to the pudendal nerve, the anal sphincter, or the anal sphincter. However the link between these injuries and pelvic floor symptoms is not always determined and we still ignore what might be the ways of prevention. Of the many obstetrical methods proposed to prevent postpartum symptoms, episiotomy, delivery in vertical position, delayed pushing, perineal massage, warm pack, pelvic floor rehabilitation, results are disappointing or limited. Caesarean section is followed by less postnatal urinary incontinence than vaginal childbirth. However this difference tends to disappear with time and following childbirth. Limit the number of instrumental extractions and prefer the vacuum to forceps could reduce pelvic floor disorders after childbirth. Ultrasound examination of the anal sphincter after a second-degree perineal tear is useful to detect and repair infra-clinic anal sphincter lesions. Scientific data is insufficient to justify an elective cesarean section in order to avoid pelvic floor symptoms in a woman without previous disorders. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI): Dynamic Pelvic Floor

MedlinePlus

... Site Index A-Z Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) – Dynamic Pelvic Floor Dynamic pelvic floor magnetic resonance imaging ( ... the limitations of pelvic floor MRI? What is dynamic pelvic floor MRI? Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is ...

The effect of sub-floor heating on house-dust-mite populations on floors and in furniture.

PubMed

de Boer, Rob

2003-01-01

It is well known that dehydrating conditions for house dust mites can be created by simply raising the temperature, causing loss of body water and eventually death. Thus, it can be expected that conditions for dust mites are less favourable on floors supplied with sub-floor heating. This was examined in a study of 16 houses with sub-floor heating and 21 without. The pattern of changes in air humidity and temperature on the floors was investigated and compared to known data of the tolerance of dust mites. Also the resident mite populations were compared. Floors with sub-floor heating had, on average, fewer mites, but the difference with unheated floors was small. It was remarkable that mite numbers were also lower in upholstered furniture. Another important observation was that some houses with sub-floor heating had high mite numbers, indicating that this type of heating is compatible with a thriving mite population. Temperature and humidity conditions of heated floors may allow mites not only to survive, but also to remain active in winter. A moderate increase in temperature, a moderate decrease in (absolute) air humidity, or a combination of both, will suffice to keep the humidity all winter below the Critical Equilibrium Humidity, the level of air humidity that is critical for mite growth and reproduction, hence for allergen production. However, it is argued that measures to suppress allergen production by house dust mites are likely to be far more effective if taken in summer rather than in winter.

17. 4th floor roof, view south, 4th and 5th floor ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

17. 4th floor roof, view south, 4th and 5th floor setback to left and atrium structure to right - Sheffield Farms Milk Plant, 1075 Webster Avenue (southwest corner of 166th Street), Bronx, Bronx County, NY

Addressing global uncertainty and sensitivity in first-principles based microkinetic models by an adaptive sparse grid approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döpking, Sandra; Plaisance, Craig P.; Strobusch, Daniel; Reuter, Karsten; Scheurer, Christoph; Matera, Sebastian

2018-01-01

In the last decade, first-principles-based microkinetic modeling has been developed into an important tool for a mechanistic understanding of heterogeneous catalysis. A commonly known, but hitherto barely analyzed issue in this kind of modeling is the presence of sizable errors from the use of approximate Density Functional Theory (DFT). We here address the propagation of these errors to the catalytic turnover frequency (TOF) by global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Both analyses require the numerical quadrature of high-dimensional integrals. To achieve this efficiently, we utilize and extend an adaptive sparse grid approach and exploit the confinement of the strongly non-linear behavior of the TOF to local regions of the parameter space. We demonstrate the methodology on a model of the oxygen evolution reaction at the Co3O4 (110)-A surface, using a maximum entropy error model that imposes nothing but reasonable bounds on the errors. For this setting, the DFT errors lead to an absolute uncertainty of several orders of magnitude in the TOF. We nevertheless find that it is still possible to draw conclusions from such uncertain models about the atomistic aspects controlling the reactivity. A comparison with derivative-based local sensitivity analysis instead reveals that this more established approach provides incomplete information. Since the adaptive sparse grids allow for the evaluation of the integrals with only a modest number of function evaluations, this approach opens the way for a global sensitivity analysis of more complex models, for instance, models based on kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis approach for GIS-based multicriteria landslide susceptibility mapping.

PubMed

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-04

GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly being used in landslide susceptibility mapping. However, the uncertainties that are associated with MCDA techniques may significantly impact the results. This may sometimes lead to inaccurate outcomes and undesirable consequences. This article introduces a new GIS-based MCDA approach. We illustrate the consequences of applying different MCDA methods within a decision-making process through uncertainty analysis. Three GIS-MCDA methods in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and Dempster-Shafer theory are analyzed for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) in the Urmia lake basin in Iran, which is highly susceptible to landslide hazards. The methodology comprises three stages. First, the LSM criteria are ranked and a sensitivity analysis is implemented to simulate error propagation based on the MCS. The resulting weights are expressed through probability density functions. Accordingly, within the second stage, three MCDA methods, namely analytical hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted average (OWA), are used to produce the landslide susceptibility maps. In the third stage, accuracy assessments are carried out and the uncertainties of the different results are measured. We compare the accuracies of the three MCDA methods based on (1) the Dempster-Shafer theory and (2) a validation of the results using an inventory of known landslides and their respective coverage based on object-based image analysis of IRS-ID satellite images. The results of this study reveal that through the integration of GIS and MCDA models, it is possible to identify strategies for choosing an appropriate method for LSM. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the integration of MCDA and MCS can significantly improve the accuracy of the results. In LSM, the AHP method performed best, while the OWA reveals better performance in the reliability assessment. The WLC operation

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis approach for GIS-based multicriteria landslide susceptibility mapping

PubMed Central

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-01-01

GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly being used in landslide susceptibility mapping. However, the uncertainties that are associated with MCDA techniques may significantly impact the results. This may sometimes lead to inaccurate outcomes and undesirable consequences. This article introduces a new GIS-based MCDA approach. We illustrate the consequences of applying different MCDA methods within a decision-making process through uncertainty analysis. Three GIS-MCDA methods in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and Dempster–Shafer theory are analyzed for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) in the Urmia lake basin in Iran, which is highly susceptible to landslide hazards. The methodology comprises three stages. First, the LSM criteria are ranked and a sensitivity analysis is implemented to simulate error propagation based on the MCS. The resulting weights are expressed through probability density functions. Accordingly, within the second stage, three MCDA methods, namely analytical hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted average (OWA), are used to produce the landslide susceptibility maps. In the third stage, accuracy assessments are carried out and the uncertainties of the different results are measured. We compare the accuracies of the three MCDA methods based on (1) the Dempster–Shafer theory and (2) a validation of the results using an inventory of known landslides and their respective coverage based on object-based image analysis of IRS-ID satellite images. The results of this study reveal that through the integration of GIS and MCDA models, it is possible to identify strategies for choosing an appropriate method for LSM. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the integration of MCDA and MCS can significantly improve the accuracy of the results. In LSM, the AHP method performed best, while the OWA reveals better performance in the reliability assessment. The WLC

Sensitivity of multiangle photo-polarimetry to absorbing aerosol vertical layering and properties: Quantifying measurement uncertainties for ACE requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalashnikova, O. V.; Garay, M. J.; Davis, A. B.; Natraj, V.; Diner, D. J.; Tanelli, S.; Martonchik, J. V.; JPl Team

2011-12-01

The impact of tropospheric aerosols on climate can vary greatly based upon relatively small variations in aerosol properties, such as composition, shape and size distributions, as well as vertical layering. Multi-angle polarimetric measurements have been advocated in recent years as an additional tool to better understand and retrieve the aerosol properties needed for improved predictions of aerosol radiative forcing on climate. The central concern of this work is the assessment of the effects of absorbing aerosol properties under measurement uncertainties achievable for future generation multi-angle, polarimetric imaging instruments under ACE mission requirements. As guidelines, the on-orbit performance of MISR for multi-angle intensity measurements and the reported polarization sensitivities of a MSPI prototype were adopted. In particular, we will focus on sensitivities to absorbing aerosol layering and observation-constrained refractive indices (resulting in various single scattering albedos (SSA)) of both spherical and non-spherical absorbing aerosol types. We conducted modeling experiments to determine how the measured Stokes vector elements are affected in UV-NIR range by the vertical distribution, mixing and layering of smoke and dust aerosols, and aerosol SSA under the assumption of a black and polarizing ocean surfaces. We use a vector successive-orders-of-scattering (SOS) and VLIDORT transfer codes that show excellent agreement. Based on our sensitivity studies we will demonstrate advantages and disadvantages of wavelength selection in UV-NIR range to access absorbing aerosol properties. Polarized UV channels do not show particular advantage for absorbing aerosol property characterization due to dominating molecular signal. Polarimetric SSA sensitivity is small, however needed to be considered in the future polarimetric retrievals under ACE-defined uncertainty.

CXTFIT/Excel A modular adaptable code for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for laboratory or field tracer experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Guoping; Mayes, Melanie; Parker, Jack C

2010-01-01

We implemented the widely used CXTFIT code in Excel to provide flexibility and added sensitivity and uncertainty analysis functions to improve transport parameter estimation and to facilitate model discrimination for multi-tracer experiments on structured soils. Analytical solutions for one-dimensional equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection dispersion equations were coded as VBA functions so that they could be used as ordinary math functions in Excel for forward predictions. Macros with user-friendly interfaces were developed for optimization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, error propagation, response surface calculation, and Monte Carlo analysis. As a result, any parameter with transformations (e.g., dimensionless, log-transformed, species-dependent reactions, etc.) couldmore » be estimated with uncertainty and sensitivity quantification for multiple tracer data at multiple locations and times. Prior information and observation errors could be incorporated into the weighted nonlinear least squares method with a penalty function. Users are able to change selected parameter values and view the results via embedded graphics, resulting in a flexible tool applicable to modeling transport processes and to teaching students about parameter estimation. The code was verified by comparing to a number of benchmarks with CXTFIT 2.0. It was applied to improve parameter estimation for four typical tracer experiment data sets in the literature using multi-model evaluation and comparison. Additional examples were included to illustrate the flexibilities and advantages of CXTFIT/Excel. The VBA macros were designed for general purpose and could be used for any parameter estimation/model calibration when the forward solution is implemented in Excel. A step-by-step tutorial, example Excel files and the code are provided as supplemental material.« less

The Secrets of Effective Floor Care.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michels, Ed

2002-01-01

Discusses the importance of staff training and a maintenance program to the care of hard floors. Describes four key features to look for in a computer-based training program and types of floor pads and matting used to keep flooring clean. (EV)

Floors: Care and Maintenance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Post Office Dept., Washington, DC.

Guidelines, methods and policies regarding the care and maintenance of post office building floors are overviewed in this handbook. Procedures outlined are concerned with maintaining a required level of appearance without wasting manpower. Flooring types and characteristics and the particular cleaning requirements of each type are given along with…

Using Multiple Barometers to Detect the Floor Location of Smart Phones with Built-in Barometric Sensors for Indoor Positioning

PubMed Central

Xia, Hao; Wang, Xiaogang; Qiao, Yanyou; Jian, Jun; Chang, Yuanfei

2015-01-01

Following the popularity of smart phones and the development of mobile Internet, the demands for accurate indoor positioning have grown rapidly in recent years. Previous indoor positioning methods focused on plane locations on a floor and did not provide accurate floor positioning. In this paper, we propose a method that uses multiple barometers as references for the floor positioning of smart phones with built-in barometric sensors. Some related studies used barometric formula to investigate the altitude of mobile devices and compared the altitude with the height of the floors in a building to obtain the floor number. These studies assume that the accurate height of each floor is known, which is not always the case. They also did not consider the difference in the barometric-pressure pattern at different floors, which may lead to errors in the altitude computation. Our method does not require knowledge of the accurate heights of buildings and stories. It is robust and less sensitive to factors such as temperature and humidity and considers the difference in the barometric-pressure change trends at different floors. We performed a series of experiments to validate the effectiveness of this method. The results are encouraging. PMID:25835189

Clinical knee findings in floor layers with focus on meniscal status.

PubMed

Rytter, Søren; Jensen, Lilli Kirkeskov; Bonde, Jens Peter

2008-10-22

The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of self-reported and clinical knee morbidity among floor layers compared to a group of graphic designers, with special attention to meniscal status. We obtained information about knee complaints by questionnaire and conducted a bilateral clinical and radiographic knee examination in 134 male floor layers and 120 male graphic designers. After the exclusion of subjects with reports of earlier knee injuries the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of knee complaints and clinical findings were computed among floor layers compared to graphic designers, using logistic regression. Estimates were adjusted for effects of body mass index, age and knee straining sports. Using radiographic evaluations, we conducted side-specific sensitivity analyses regarding clinical signs of meniscal lesions after the exclusion of participants with tibiofemoral (TF) osteoarthritis (OA). Reports of knee pain (OR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.5-4.6), pain during stair walking (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.3-3.9) and symptoms of catching of the knee joint (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.4-5.7) were more prevalent among floor layers compared to graphic designers. Additionally, significant more floor layers than graphic designers had clinical signs suggesting possible meniscal lesions: a positive McMurray test (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1-5.0) and TF joint line tenderness (OR = 5.4, 95% CI = 2.4-12.0). Excluding floor layers (n = 22) and graphic designers (n = 15) with radiographic TF OA did not alter this trend between the two study groups: a positive McMurray test (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.0-4.9), TF joint line tenderness (OR = 5.0, 95% CI = 2.0-12.5). Results indicate that floor layers have a high prevalence of both self-reported and clinical knee morbidity. Clinical knee findings suggesting possible meniscal lesions were significant more prevalent among floor layers compared to a group of low-level exposed graphic designers and an association with occupational

Maximizing Hard Floor Maintenance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steger, Michael

2000-01-01

Explains the maintenance options available for hardwood flooring that can help ensure long life cycles and provide inviting spaces. Developing a maintenance system, knowing the type of traffic that the floor must endure, using entrance matting, and adhering to manufacturers guidelines are discussed. Daily, monthly or quarterly, and long-term…

Floors and Toilets: Association of Floors and Sanitation Practices with Fecal Contamination in Peruvian Amazon Peri-Urban Households.

PubMed

Exum, Natalie G; Olórtegui, Maribel Paredes; Yori, Pablo Peñataro; Davis, Meghan F; Heaney, Christopher D; Kosek, Margaret; Schwab, Kellogg J

2016-07-19

Over two billion people worldwide lack access to an improved sanitation facility that adequately retains or treats feces. This results in the potential for fecal material containing enteric pathogens to contaminate the environment, including household floors. This study aimed to assess how floor type and sanitation practices impacted the concentration of fecal contamination on household floors. We sampled 189 floor surfaces within 63 households in a peri-urban community in Iquitos, Peru. All samples were analyzed for colony forming units (CFUs) of E. coli, and households were evaluated for their water, sanitation, and hygiene characteristics. Results of multivariate linear regression indicated that households with improved sanitation and cement floors in the kitchen area had reduced fecal contamination to those with unimproved sanitation and dirt floors (Beta: -1.18 log10 E. coli CFU/900 cm(2); 95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.77, -0.60). Households that did not versus did share their sanitation facility also had less contaminated kitchen floors (Beta: -0.65 log10 E. coli CFU/900 cm(2); 95% CI: -1.15, -0.16). These findings suggest that the sanitation facilities of a home may impact the microbial load found on floors, contributing to the potential for household floors to serve as an indirect route of fecal pathogen transmission to children.

FLOOR PLAN OF MAIN PROCESSING BUILDING (CPP601), SECOND FLOOR SHOWING ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

FLOOR PLAN OF MAIN PROCESSING BUILDING (CPP-601), SECOND FLOOR SHOWING PROCESS MAKEUP AREA AND EIGHTEEN CELLS AND ADJOINING REMOTE ANALYTICAL FACILITY (CPP-627) SHOWING COLD LAB, DECONTAMINATION ROOM, MULTICURIE CELL ROOM, AND OFFICES. TO LEFT ARE LABORATORY BUILDING (CPP-602) AND MAINTENANCE BUILDING (CPP-630). INL DRAWING NUMBER 200-0601-00-706-051980. ALTERNATE ID NUMBER CPP-E-1980. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Fuel Reprocessing Complex, Scoville, Butte County, ID

FLOOR PLAN OF MAIN PROCESSING BUILDING (CPP601), FIRST FLOOR SHOWING ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

FLOOR PLAN OF MAIN PROCESSING BUILDING (CPP-601), FIRST FLOOR SHOWING SAMPLE CORRIDORS AND EIGHTEEN CELLS AND ADJOINING REMOTE ANALYTICAL FACILITY (CPP-627) SHOWING REMOTE ANALYTICAL FACILITIES LAB, DECONTAMINATION ROOM, AND MULTICURIE CELL ROOM. TO LEFT ARE LABORATORY BUILDING (CPP-602) AND MAINTENANCE BUILDING (CPP-630). INL DRAWING NUMBER 200-0601-00-706-051979. ALTERNATE ID NUMBER CPP-E-1979. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Fuel Reprocessing Complex, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Effect of a viscoelastic admixture on transient vibration in a concrete and steel floor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moiseev, Neil

1992-02-01

The typical concrete and steel building structure has very little inherent damping, resulting in a very large Q, a measure of the sharpness of the amplitude response at resonance. Some damping effects are provided through the inertia and friction provided by a building''s full height partitions, hung ceilings, furniture, and suspended ducts and piping. These items have an effect on the very low amplitude vibration that affects sensitive laboratory equipment and the processes used in the microelectronic industry. This paper presents studies of transient vibration of floors in two existing buildings. The floors have been treated by adding a two inch thick concrete topping to the structural floor. This additional layer of concrete was treated by using a viscoelastic damping admixture in place of some of the water used to form the concrete. The admixture can dramatically reduce the Q of concrete from the normal 200 to between 20 and 50, depending on the amount of admixture used per yard of concrete. The measured velocity and frequency of the transient vibration excited by footfalls is compared to the predicted velocity and frequency of the same floor structure without the damping admixture. A formula to predict the peak transient vibration velocity due to footfalls for a concrete floor with a viscoelastic admixture is proposed.

Pelvic floor muscle training increases pelvic floor muscle strength more in post-menopausal women who are not using hormone therapy than in women who are using hormone therapy: a randomised trial.

PubMed

Ignácio Antônio, Flávia; Herbert, Robert D; Bø, Kari; Rosa-E-Silva, Ana Carolina Japur Sá; Lara, Lúcia Alves Silva; Franco, Maira de Menezes; Ferreira, Cristine Homsi Jorge

2018-06-15

Are there differences in the effectiveness of pelvic floor muscle training on pelvic floor muscle strength and urinary incontinence symptoms in postmenopausal women who are and are not using hormone therapy? Randomised, controlled trial with concealed allocation, blinded assessors, and intention-to-treat analysis. Ninety-nine postmenopausal women, 38 of whom were using daily systemic oestrogen/progestogen therapy. The experimental group (n=51) received an intensive supervised pelvic floor muscle training protocol, and the control group (n=48) received no intervention. The randomisation was stratified by hormone therapy use. Change in pelvic floor muscle strength assessed with manometry at 12 weeks. Prevalence and severity of urinary incontinence symptoms were assessed using questionnaires. Eighty-eight women provided data that could be included in the analysis. Pelvic floor muscle training increased pelvic floor muscle strength by 8.0 cmH 2 O (95% CI 3.4 to 12.6) in women not using hormone therapy and by -0.9 cmH 2 0 (95% CI -6.5 to 4.8) in women using hormone therapy (interaction p=0.018). A sensitivity analysis showed that the greater training effect in women who were not using hormone therapy was still apparent if the analysis was conducted on percentage change in strength rather than absolute change in strength. There was also a significantly greater effect of training in women not using hormone therapy on prevalence of urinary incontinence symptoms (ratio of odds ratios=7.4; interaction p=0.028). The difference in effects on severity of urinary incontinence symptoms was not statistically significant (interaction p=0.37). Pelvic floor muscle training increases pelvic floor muscle strength more in women who are not using hormone therapy than in women using hormone therapy. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02549729. [Ignácio Antônio F, Herbert RD, Bø K, Rosa-e-Silva ACJS, Lara LAS, Franco MdM, Ferreira CHJ (2018) Pelvic floor muscle training increases pelvic floor muscle

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that there are inherent uncertainties with model predictions, limited studies have addressed model prediction uncertainty. In this study we assess the effect of model input error on predict...

The cleaning of ward floors and the bacteriological study of floor-cleaning machines

PubMed Central

Bate, J. G.

1961-01-01

Current trends in ward flooring materials and cleaning methods are considered from the point of view of the hospital bacteriologist. Methods employed in an investigation into the bacteriological safety of a number of floor-cleaning machines are described, and some considerations governing the choice of vacuum cleaners for ward use are discussed. Images PMID:13687726

9 CFR 91.26 - Concrete flooring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

.... Flooring shall be laid athwartship and secured by placing ends beneath the under side of foot and rump... raised. The flush type shall be constructed of not less than 1″ thick lumber laid flat on the deck. The...″ dimensions laid 2 feet 6 inches apart. If desired, flooring may be laid in portable sections. Flooring will...

Distribution of parquet flooring during 1969

Treesearch

William C. Miller; William C. Miller

1972-01-01

This is the third in a series of papers dealing with the residential and commercial hardwood flooring industry. The first two paper are: PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTIOONF OAK STRIP FLOORING IN 1969 (U.S.D.A. Forest Serv. Res. Paper NE-207) and DISTRIBUTION OF MAPLE STRIP FLOORING IN 1969. (U.S.D.A. Forest Serv. Res. Paper NE-215).

Flooring choices for newborn ICUs.

PubMed

White, R D

2007-12-01

Floors are a major element of newborn intensive care unit (NICU) construction. They provide visual cues, sound control, and with certain materials, some degree of physical comfort for workers. Flooring materials may entail a significant cost for installation and upkeep and can have substantial ecological impact, both in the choice of the flooring itself, as well as the substances used to clean it. In this article the important aspects to consider for each factor are explored and recommendations are offered for appropriate choices in various NICU areas.

MTRETR MAINTENANCE SHOP, TRA653. FLOOR PLAN FOR FIRST FLOOR: MACHINE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

MTR-ETR MAINTENANCE SHOP, TRA-653. FLOOR PLAN FOR FIRST FLOOR: MACHINE SHOP, ELECTRICAL AND INSTRUMENT SHOP, TOOL CRIB, ELECTRONIC SHOP, LOCKER ROOM, SPECIAL TEMPERATURE CONTROLLED ROOM, AND OFFICES. "NEW" ON DRAWING REFERS TO REVISION OF 11/1956 DRAWING ON WHICH AREAS WERE DESIGNATED AS "FUTURE." HUMMEL HUMMEL & JONES 810-MTR-ETR-653-A-7, 5/1957. INL INDEX NO. 532-0653-00-381-101839, REV. 2. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Reactor Area, Materials & Engineering Test Reactors, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Pelvic floor muscle training exercises

MedlinePlus

... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003975.htm Pelvic floor muscle training exercises To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Pelvic floor muscle training exercises are a series of exercises designed to ...

A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity in women with pelvic floor disorders

PubMed Central

Kanter, Gregg; Rogers, Rebecca G; Pauls, Rachel N; Kammerer-Doak, Dorothy; Thakar, Ranee

2015-01-01

Introduction and Hypothesis We evaluated the associations between pelvic floor muscle strength and tone with sexual activity and sexual function in women with pelvic floor disorders. Methods This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter study of women with pelvic floor disorders from the US and UK performed to validate the Pelvic Organ Prolapse/Incontinence Sexual Questionnaire, IUGA-Revised (PISQ-IR). Participants were surveyed about whether they were sexually active and completed the PISQ-IR and Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) questionnaires to assess sexual function. Physical exams included assessment of pelvic floor strength by the Oxford Grading Scale, and assessment of pelvic floor tone per ICS guidelines. Results The cohort of 585 women was middle aged (mean age 54.9 +/−12.1) with 395 (67.5%) reporting sexual activity. Women with a strong pelvic floor (n=275) were more likely to report sexual activity than women with weak strength (n=280) (75.3 vs. 61.8%, p<0.001), but normal or hypoactive pelvic floor tone was not associated with sexual activity (68.8 vs. 60.2%, normal vs. hypoactive, p=0.08). After multivariable analysis, a strong pelvic floor remained predictive of sexual activity (OR 1.89, CI 1.18–3.03, p<0.01). Among sexually active women (n=370), a strong pelvic floor was associated with higher scores on the PISQ-IR domain of condition impact (Parameter Estimate 0.20+/−0.09, P=0.04), and FSFI orgasm domain (PE 0.51+/−0.17, P=0.004). Conclusion A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity as well as higher sexual function scores on the condition impact domain of the PISQ-IR and orgasm domain of the FSFI. PMID:25994625

Forest floor and mineral soil respiration rates in a northern Minnesota red pine chronosequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Matthew; Kolka, Randall; Bradford, John B.; Palik, Brian J.; Jurgensen, Martin

2018-01-01

We measured total soil CO2 efflux (RS) and efflux from the forest floor layers (RFF) in red pine (Pinus resinosaAit.) stands of different ages to examine relationships between stand age and belowground C cycling. Soil temperature and RS were often lower in a 31-year-old stand (Y31) than in 9-year-old (Y9), 61-year-old (Y61), or 123-year-old (Y123) stands. This pattern was most apparent during warm summer months, but there were no consistent differences in RFF among different-aged stands. RFF represented an average of 4–13% of total soil respiration, and forest floor removal increased moisture content in the mineral soil. We found no evidence of an age effect on the temperature sensitivity of RS, but respiration rates in Y61 and Y123 were less sensitive to low soil moisture than RS in Y9 and Y31. Our results suggest that soil respiration’s sensitivity to soil moisture may change more over the course of stand development than its sensitivity to soil temperature in red pine, and that management activities that alter landscape-scale age distributions in red pine forests could have significant impacts on rates of soil CO2 efflux from this forest type.

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S.

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.« less

Formaldehyde and TVOC emission behavior of laminate flooring by structure of laminate flooring and heating condition.

PubMed

An, Jae-Yoon; Kim, Sumin; Kim, Hyun-Joong

2011-03-15

Formaldehyde was measured with a desiccator, a 20 L chamber and the FLEC method. The formaldehyde emission rate from laminate was the highest at 32 °C using the desiccator, which then decreased with time. The formaldehyde emission using the 20 L small chamber and FLEC showed a similar tendency. There was a strong correlation between the formaldehyde and total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs) with both types of floorings using the two different methods. The formaldehyde emission rate and TVOC results were higher when tested using the FLEC method than with the 20 L small chamber method. The emission rate was affected by the joint edge length in laminate flooring. Toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene were the main VOCs emitted from laminate flooring, and there were more unidentified VOCs emitted than identified VOCs. The samples heated with a floor heating system emitted more formaldehyde than those heated using an air circulation system due to the temperature difference between the bottom panel and flooring. The TVOC emission level of the samples was higher when an air circulation system was used than when a floor heating system was used due to the high ventilation rate. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterlark, Timothy; Donovan, Theodore; Feigl, Kurt L.; Haney, Matt; Thurber, Clifford H.; Tung, Sui

2016-01-01

The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

78 FR 30329 - Multilayered Wood Flooring from China

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-22

...)] Multilayered Wood Flooring from China AGENCY: United States International Trade Commission. ACTION: Notice of...-1179 (Final) concerning multilayered wood flooring (``MLWF'') from China. For further information... Hardwood Floors, Inc.; BR Custom Surface; Real Wood Floors, LLC; Galleher Corp.; and DPR International, LLC...

The Floor of Saha E

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-10-27

Diverse textures on the floor of Saha E which could be the result of impact melt coating boulders and other deposits on the floor of the crater on the lunar farside in this image taken by NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.

[Postpartum pelvic floor rehabilitation on prevention of female pelvic floor dysfunction: a multicenter prospective randomized controlled study].

PubMed

Sun, Zhijing; Zhu, Lan; Lang, Jinghe; Zhang, Yewu; Liu, Guizhi; Chen, Xiaochun; Feng, Songzhi; Zhang, Juxin; Yao, Yuhong; Zhang, Jie; Su, Yuanyuan; Fang, Guiying; Yang, Mei; Liu, Juan; Ma, Zhimin

2015-06-01

To study the postpartum pelvic floor rehabilitation on the improvement of pelvic floor electrical physiological indexes and the prevention of female pelvic floor dysfunction in China. A multicenter prospective randomized controlled study was carried out. From October 2011, postpartum women in five provinces were randomly assigned into treatment group and control group. The women in treatment group received electrical stimulation and biofeedback treatment. The women in control group performed pelvic floor muscle exercise at home. When 6 months and 12 months after delivery, comparing two groups of patients with pelvic floor electrical physiological indexes and pelvic organ prolapse quantitation measurements (POP-Q), to evaluate the effect of postpartum pelvic floor rehabilitation on the prevention of pelvic floor dysfunction. Pelvic floor impact questionnaire short form (PFIQ-7) and pelvic organ prolapse/incontinence sexual questionnaire-12 (PISQ-12) were used to evaluate the influence on quality of life and sexual life. Until June 2013, 324 women were participated, 124 in control group, 200 in treatment group. According to the baseline results, there was statistical significance in the results of pelvic floor electrical physiological indexes between the treatment and control groups in postpartum 6 months and 12 months; the proportion above level III of type I and type II muscle fibers strength in the treatment group, it was from 41.5% (83/200) and 40.5% (81/200) to 76.3% (145/190) and 79.5% (151/190) in postpartum 6 weeks and postpartum 6 months, increased to 80.6% (58/72) and 80.6% (58/72) in postpartum 12 months, improved significantly comparing with the control group (P < 0.01). According to Point Aa, treatment group and control group in the postpartum 6 weeks was (-2.2 ± 0.7) versus (-2.4 ± 0.6) cm, in postpartum 12 months (- 2.5 ± 1.1) versus (- 2.7 ± 0.6) cm, the improvement in treatment group was statistically significant (P < 0.01). And the other points

Addressing uncertainty in vulnerability assessments [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Linda Joyce; Molly Cross; Evan Girvatz

2011-01-01

This chapter addresses issues and approaches for dealing with uncertainty specifically within the context of conducting climate change vulnerability assessments (i.e., uncertainties related to identifying and modeling the sensitivities, levels of exposure, and adaptive capacity of the assessment targets).

Systematic review of pelvic floor interventions during pregnancy.

PubMed

Schreiner, Lucas; Crivelatti, Isabel; de Oliveira, Julia M; Nygaard, Christiana C; Dos Santos, Thais G

2018-04-28

Pelvic floor interventions during pregnancy could reduce the impact of pregnancy and delivery on the pelvic floor. To determine the effects of pelvic floor interventions during pregnancy on childbirth-related and pelvic floor parameters. PubMed, Embase, and LILACS were searched for reports published during between 1990 and 2016 in English, Spanish, or Portuguese. The search terms were "pregnancy," "pelvic floor muscle training," and related terms. Randomized controlled trials with healthy pregnant women were included. Baseline and outcome data (childbirth-related parameters, pelvic floor symptoms) were compared for three interventions: EPI-NO (Tecsana, Munich, Germany) perineal dilator, pelvic floor muscle training, and perineal massage. A total of 22 trials were included. Two of three papers assessing EPI-NO showed no benefit. The largest study investigating pelvic floor muscle training reported a significant reduction in the duration of the second stage of labor (P<0.01), and this intervention also reduced the incidence of urinary incontinence (evaluated in 10 trials). Two of six trials investigating perineal massage reported that a lower rate of perineal pain was associated with this intervention. Pelvic floor muscle training and perineal massage improved childbirth-related parameters and pelvic floor symptoms, whereas EPI-NO showed no benefit. © 2018 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Using uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in socioecological agent-based models to improve their analytical performance and policy relevance.

PubMed

Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Kramer, Daniel B; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Soranno, Patricia A

2014-01-01

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study socioecological systems. They are useful for studying such systems because of their ability to incorporate micro-level behaviors among interacting agents, and to understand emergent phenomena due to these interactions. However, ABMs are inherently stochastic and require proper handling of uncertainty. We propose a simulation framework based on quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to build parsimonious ABMs that serve two purposes: exploration of the outcome space to simulate low-probability but high-consequence events that may have significant policy implications, and explanation of model behavior to describe the system with higher accuracy. The proposed framework is applied to the problem of modeling farmland conservation resulting in land use change. We employ output variance decomposition based on quasi-random sampling of the input space and perform three computational experiments. First, we perform uncertainty analysis to improve model legitimacy, where the distribution of results informs us about the expected value that can be validated against independent data, and provides information on the variance around this mean as well as the extreme results. In our last two computational experiments, we employ sensitivity analysis to produce two simpler versions of the ABM. First, input space is reduced only to inputs that produced the variance of the initial ABM, resulting in a model with output distribution similar to the initial model. Second, we refine the value of the most influential input, producing a model that maintains the mean of the output of initial ABM but with less spread. These simplifications can be used to 1) efficiently explore model outcomes, including outliers that may be important considerations in the design of robust policies, and 2) conduct explanatory analysis that exposes the smallest number of inputs influencing the steady state of the modeled system.

Using Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses in Socioecological Agent-Based Models to Improve Their Analytical Performance and Policy Relevance

PubMed Central

Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Kramer, Daniel B.; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Soranno, Patricia A.

2014-01-01

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study socioecological systems. They are useful for studying such systems because of their ability to incorporate micro-level behaviors among interacting agents, and to understand emergent phenomena due to these interactions. However, ABMs are inherently stochastic and require proper handling of uncertainty. We propose a simulation framework based on quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to build parsimonious ABMs that serve two purposes: exploration of the outcome space to simulate low-probability but high-consequence events that may have significant policy implications, and explanation of model behavior to describe the system with higher accuracy. The proposed framework is applied to the problem of modeling farmland conservation resulting in land use change. We employ output variance decomposition based on quasi-random sampling of the input space and perform three computational experiments. First, we perform uncertainty analysis to improve model legitimacy, where the distribution of results informs us about the expected value that can be validated against independent data, and provides information on the variance around this mean as well as the extreme results. In our last two computational experiments, we employ sensitivity analysis to produce two simpler versions of the ABM. First, input space is reduced only to inputs that produced the variance of the initial ABM, resulting in a model with output distribution similar to the initial model. Second, we refine the value of the most influential input, producing a model that maintains the mean of the output of initial ABM but with less spread. These simplifications can be used to 1) efficiently explore model outcomes, including outliers that may be important considerations in the design of robust policies, and 2) conduct explanatory analysis that exposes the smallest number of inputs influencing the steady state of the modeled system. PMID:25340764

75 FR 79019 - Multilayered Wood Flooring From China

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-17

...)] Multilayered Wood Flooring From China Determinations On the basis of the record \\1\\ developed in the subject... imports from China of multilayered wood flooring, provided for in subheadings 4409.10, 4409.29, 4412.31... multilayered wood flooring. The following companies are members of the CAHP: Anderson Hardwood Floors, LLC...

Influence of adequate pelvic floor muscle contraction on the movement of the coccyx during pelvic floor muscle training.

PubMed

Fujisaki, Akiko; Shigeta, Miwa; Shimoinaba, Misa; Yoshimura, Yasukuni

2018-04-01

[Purpose] Pelvic floor muscle training is a first-line therapy for female stress urinary incontinence. Previous studies have suggested that the coccyx tip moves ventrally and cranially during pelvic floor muscle contraction. The study aimed to elucidate the influence of adequate pelvic floor muscle contraction on coccyx movement. [Subjects and Methods] Sixty-three females (57 patients with stress urinary incontinence and additional 6 healthy volunteers) were enrolled. Using magnetic resonance imaging, coccyx movement was evaluated during pelvic floor muscle contraction and strain. An adequate contraction was defined as a contraction with good Oxford grading scale [≥3] and without inadequate muscle substitution patterns. [Results] Inadequate muscle substitution patterns were observed in 33 participants (52.4%). No significant difference was observed in the movement of the coccyx tip in the ventrodorsal direction between females with and without inadequate muscle substitution patterns. However, a significant increase in the movement of the coccyx tip in the cranial direction was detected in the group without inadequate muscle substitution patterns. Compared to participants with inadequate pelvic floor muscle contraction, those who had adequate pelvic floor muscle contraction exhibited significantly increased cranial movement of the coccyx. [Conclusion] Adequate pelvic floor muscle contraction can produce cranial movement of the coccyx tip.

Low floor mass transit vehicle

DOEpatents

Emmons, J Bruce [Beverly Hills, MI; Blessing, Leonard J [Rochester, MI

2004-02-03

A mass transit vehicle includes a frame structure that provides an efficient and economical approach to providing a low floor bus. The inventive frame includes a stiff roof panel and a stiff floor panel. A plurality of generally vertical pillars extend between the roof and floor panels. A unique bracket arrangement is disclosed for connecting the pillars to the panels. Side panels are secured to the pillars and carry the shear stresses on the frame. A unique seating assembly that can be advantageously incorporated into the vehicle taking advantage of the load distributing features of the inventive frame is also disclosed.

External Hand Forces Exerted by Long-Term Care Staff to Push Floor-Based Lifts: Effects of Flooring System and Resident Weight.

PubMed

Lachance, Chantelle C; Korall, Alexandra M B; Russell, Colin M; Feldman, Fabio; Robinovitch, Stephen N; Mackey, Dawn C

2016-09-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of flooring type and resident weight on external hand forces required to push floor-based lifts in long-term care (LTC). Novel compliant flooring is designed to reduce fall-related injuries among LTC residents but may increase forces required for staff to perform pushing tasks. A motorized lift may offset the effect of flooring on push forces. Fourteen female LTC staff performed straight-line pushes with two floor-based lifts (conventional, motor driven) loaded with passengers of average and 90th-percentile resident weights over four flooring systems (concrete+vinyl, compliant+vinyl, concrete+carpet, compliant+carpet). Initial and sustained push forces were measured by a handlebar-mounted triaxial load cell and compared to participant-specific tolerance limits. Participants rated pushing difficulty. Novel compliant flooring increased initial and sustained push forces and subjective ratings compared to concrete flooring. Compared to the conventional lift, the motor-driven lift substantially reduced initial and sustained push forces and perceived difficulty of pushing for all four floors and both resident weights. Participants exerted forces above published tolerance limits only when using the conventional lift on the carpet conditions (concrete+carpet, compliant+carpet). With the motor-driven lift only, resident weight did not affect push forces. Novel compliant flooring increased linear push forces generated by LTC staff using floor-based lifts, but forces did not exceed tolerance limits when pushing over compliant+vinyl. The motor-driven lift substantially reduced push forces compared to the conventional lift. Results may help to address risk of work-related musculoskeletal injury, especially in locations with novel compliant flooring. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Pelvic Floor Physical Therapy and Women's Health Promotion.

PubMed

Lawson, Samantha; Sacks, Ashley

2018-05-19

Pelvic floor dysfunction is defined as abnormal function of the pelvic floor and includes conditions that can have significant adverse impacts on a woman's quality of life, including urinary incontinence (stress, urge, and mixed), fecal incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse, sexual dysfunction, diastasis recti abdominis, pelvic girdle pain, and chronic pain syndromes. Women's health care providers can screen for, identify, and treat pelvic floor dysfunction. This article examines the case of a woman with multiple pelvic-floor-related problems and presents the evidence for the use of pelvic floor physical therapy (PFPT) for pregnancy-related pelvic floor dysfunction. PFPT is an evidence-based, low-risk, and minimally invasive intervention, and women's health care providers can counsel women about the role that PFPT may play in the prevention, treatment, and/or management of pelvic floor dysfunction. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Plutonium and Cesium Isotopes in Modeling of BR3 Reactor Spent Fuel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conant, Andrew; Erickson, Anna; Robel, Martin

Nuclear forensics has a broad task to characterize recovered nuclear or radiological material and interpret the results of investigation. One approach to isotopic characterization of nuclear material obtained from a reactor is to chemically separate and perform isotopic measurements on the sample and verify the results with modeling of the sample history, for example, operation of a nuclear reactor. The major actinide plutonium and fission product cesium are commonly measured signatures of the fuel history in a reactor core. This study investigates the uncertainty of the plutonium and cesium isotope ratios of a fuel rod discharged from a research pressurizedmore » water reactor when the location of the sample is not known a priori. A sensitivity analysis showed overpredicted values for the 240Pu/ 239Pu ratio toward the axial center of the rod and revealed a lower probability of the rod of interest (ROI) being on the periphery of the assembly. The uncertainty analysis found the relative errors due to only the rod position and boron concentration to be 17% to 36% and 7% to 15% for the 240Pu/ 239Pu and 137Cs/ 135Cs ratios, respectively. Lastly, this study provides a method for uncertainty quantification of isotope concentrations due to the location of the ROI. Similar analyses can be performed to verify future chemical and isotopic analyses.« less

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Plutonium and Cesium Isotopes in Modeling of BR3 Reactor Spent Fuel

DOE PAGES

Conant, Andrew; Erickson, Anna; Robel, Martin; ...

2017-02-03

Nuclear forensics has a broad task to characterize recovered nuclear or radiological material and interpret the results of investigation. One approach to isotopic characterization of nuclear material obtained from a reactor is to chemically separate and perform isotopic measurements on the sample and verify the results with modeling of the sample history, for example, operation of a nuclear reactor. The major actinide plutonium and fission product cesium are commonly measured signatures of the fuel history in a reactor core. This study investigates the uncertainty of the plutonium and cesium isotope ratios of a fuel rod discharged from a research pressurizedmore » water reactor when the location of the sample is not known a priori. A sensitivity analysis showed overpredicted values for the 240Pu/ 239Pu ratio toward the axial center of the rod and revealed a lower probability of the rod of interest (ROI) being on the periphery of the assembly. The uncertainty analysis found the relative errors due to only the rod position and boron concentration to be 17% to 36% and 7% to 15% for the 240Pu/ 239Pu and 137Cs/ 135Cs ratios, respectively. Lastly, this study provides a method for uncertainty quantification of isotope concentrations due to the location of the ROI. Similar analyses can be performed to verify future chemical and isotopic analyses.« less

COMPUTATIONAL METHODS FOR SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL AND BIOLOGICAL MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

This work introduces a computationally efficient alternative method for uncertainty propagation, the Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM). The SRSM approximates uncertainties in model outputs through a series expansion in normal random variables (polynomial chaos expansion)...

Effects of pelvic floor muscle training during pregnancy.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Claudia; Lopes, Marco Antonio Borges; Carla Longo e Pereira, Luciana; Zugaib, Marcelo

2007-08-01

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of pelvic floor muscle training in 46 nulliparous pregnant women. The women were divided into 2 groups: an exercise group and a control group. Functional evaluation of the pelvic floor muscle was performed by digital vaginal palpation using the strength scale described by Ortiz and by a perineometer (with and without biofeedback). The functional evaluation of the pelvic floor muscles showed a significant increase in pelvic floor muscle strength during pregnancy in both groups (P < .001). However, the magnitude of the change was greater in the exercise group than in the control group (47.4% vs. 17.3%, P < .001). The study also showed a significant positive correlation (Spearman's test, r = 0.643; P < .001) between perineometry and digital assessment in the strength of pelvic floor muscles. Pelvic floor muscle training resulted in a significant increase in pelvic floor muscle pressure and strength during pregnancy. A significant positive correlation between functional evaluation of the pelvic floor muscle and perineometry was observed during pregnancy.

Uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of techno-economic assessments for biodiesel production.

PubMed

Tang, Zhang-Chun; Zhenzhou, Lu; Zhiwen, Liu; Ningcong, Xiao

2015-01-01

There are various uncertain parameters in the techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of biodiesel production, including capital cost, interest rate, feedstock price, maintenance rate, biodiesel conversion efficiency, glycerol price and operating cost. However, fewer studies focus on the influence of these parameters on TEAs. This paper investigated the effects of these parameters on the life cycle cost (LCC) and the unit cost (UC) in the TEAs of biodiesel production. The results show that LCC and UC exhibit variations when involving uncertain parameters. Based on the uncertainty analysis, three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods are utilized to quantify the contribution of an individual uncertain parameter to LCC and UC. The GSA results reveal that the feedstock price and the interest rate produce considerable effects on the TEAs. These results can provide a useful guide for entrepreneurs when they plan plants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A&M. TAN607 floor plan for first floor. Shows stepped door ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

A&M. TAN-607 floor plan for first floor. Shows stepped door plug design from hot shop into special services cubicle, cubicle windows, and other details. This drawing was re-drawn to show as-built conditions in 1985. Ralph M. Parsons 902-3-ANP-607-A 99. Date of original: January 1955. Approved by INEEL Classification Office for public release. INEEL index code no. 034-0607-00-693-106751 - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Area North, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Prevention of childbirth injuries to the pelvic floor.

PubMed

Heit, M; Mudd, K; Culligan, P

2001-08-01

The majority of childbirth injuries to the pelvic floor occur after the first vaginal delivery. Cesarean sections performed after the onset of labor may not protect the pelvic floor. Elective cesarean section is the only true primary prevention strategy for childbirth injuries to the pelvic floor. Alternative primary prevention strategies include elective cesarean section for women with nonmodifiable risks for childbirth injuries to the pelvic floor, antepartum pelvic floor exercises, or intrapartum pudendal nerve monitoring. Secondary prevention strategies must focus on modifying obstetric practices that predispose women to pelvic floor injury. These factors are best delineated for anal incontinence and include restrictive use of episiotomy, mediolateral episiotomy when necessary, spontaneous over forceps-assisted vaginal delivery, vacuum extraction over forceps delivery, and antepartum perineal massage. Finally, tertiary prevention strategies should address the mode of delivery made for women with childbirth injuries to the pelvic floor who desire future fertility.

Pelvic floor muscle exercise by biofeedback and electrical stimulation to reinforce the pelvic floor muscle after normal delivery.

PubMed

Lee, In Sook; Choi, Euy Soon

2006-12-01

This study was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of pelvic floor muscle exercise using biofeedback and electrical stimulation after normal delivery. The subjects of this study were 49 (experimental group: 25, control group: 24) postpartum women who passed 6 weeks after normal delivery without complication of pregnancy, delivery and postpartum. The experimental group was applied to the pelvic muscle enforcement program by biofeedback and electrical stimulation for 30 minutes per session, twice a week for 6 weeks, after then self-exercise of pelvic floor muscle was done 50-60 repetition per session, 3 times a day for 6 weeks. Maximum pressure of pelvic floor muscle contraction (MPPFMC), average pressure of pelvic floor muscle contraction (APPFMC), duration time of pelvic floor muscle contraction (DTPFMC) and the subjective lower urinary symptoms were measured by digital perineometer and Bristol Female Urinary Symptom Questionnaire and compared between two groups prior to trial, at the end of treatment and 6 weeks after treatment. The results of this study indicated that MPPFMC, APPFMC, DTPFMC were significantly increased and subjective lower urinary symptoms were significantly decreased after treatment in the experimental group than in the control group. This study suggested that the pelvic floor muscle exercise using biofeedback and electrical stimulation might be a safer and more effective program for reinforcing pelvic floor muscle after normal delivery.

A geostatistics-informed hierarchical sensitivity analysis method for complex groundwater flow and transport modeling: GEOSTATISTICAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Heng; Chen, Xingyuan; Ye, Ming

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a hierarchical sensitivity analysis method that (1) constructs an uncertainty hierarchy by analyzing the input uncertainty sources, and (2) accounts for the spatial correlation among parameters at each level ofmore » the hierarchy using geostatistical tools. The contribution of uncertainty source at each hierarchy level is measured by sensitivity indices calculated using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport in model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally as driven by the dynamic interaction between groundwater and river water at the site. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed parameters.« less

Magnetic resonance imaging of pelvic floor dysfunction.

PubMed

Lalwani, Neeraj; Moshiri, Mariam; Lee, Jean H; Bhargava, Puneet; Dighe, Manjiri K

2013-11-01

Pelvic floor dysfunction is largely a complex problem of multiparous and postmenopausal women and is associated with pelvic floor or organ descent. Physical examination can underestimate the extent of the dysfunction and misdiagnose the disorders. Functional magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is emerging as a promising tool to evaluate the dynamics of the pelvic floor and use for surgical triage and operative planning. This article reviews the anatomy and pathology of pelvic floor dysfunction, typical imaging findings, and the current role of functional MR imaging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A PROBABILISTIC ARSENIC EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FOR CHILDREN WHO CONTACT CHROMATED COPPER ARSENATE ( CAA )-TREATED PLAYSETS AND DECKS: PART 2 SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

A probabilistic model (SHEDS-Wood) was developed to examine children's exposure and dose to chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood, as described in Part 1 of this two part paper. This Part 2 paper discusses sensitivity and uncertainty analyses conducted to assess the key m...

Brief Report: Effects of Sensory Sensitivity and Intolerance of Uncertainty on Anxiety in Mothers of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Uljarević, Mirko; Carrington, Sarah; Leekam, Susan

2016-01-01

This study examined the relations between anxiety and individual characteristics of sensory sensitivity (SS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in mothers of children with ASD. The mothers of 50 children completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale and the IU Scale. Anxiety was associated with both SS and IU and IU was also associated with SS. Mediation analyses showed direct effects between anxiety and both IU and SS but a significant indirect effect was found only in the model in which IU mediated between SS. This is the first study to characterize the nature of the IU and SS interrelation in predicting levels of anxiety.

Modular Flooring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thate, Robert

2012-01-01

The modular flooring system (MFS) was developed to provide a portable, modular, durable carpeting solution for NASA fs Robotics Alliance Project fs (RAP) outreach efforts. It was also designed to improve and replace a modular flooring system that was too heavy for safe use and transportation. The MFS was developed for use as the flooring for various robotics competitions that RAP utilizes to meet its mission goals. One of these competitions, the FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC), currently uses two massive rolls of broadloom carpet for the foundation of the arena in which the robots are contained during the competition. The area of the arena is approximately 30 by 72 ft (approximately 9 by 22 m). This carpet is very cumbersome and requires large-capacity vehicles, and handling equipment and personnel to transport and deploy. The broadloom carpet sustains severe abuse from the robots during a regular three-day competition, and as a result, the carpet is not used again for competition. Similarly, broadloom carpets used for trade shows at convention centers around the world are typically discarded after only one use. This innovation provides a green solution to this wasteful practice. Each of the flooring modules in the previous system weighed 44 lb (.20 kg). The improvements in the overall design of the system reduce the weight of each module by approximately 22 lb (.10 kg) (50 %), and utilize an improved "module-to-module" connection method that is superior to the previous system. The MFS comprises 4-by-4-ft (.1.2-by- 1.2-m) carpet module assemblies that utilize commercially available carpet tiles that are bonded to a lightweight substrate. The substrate surface opposite from the carpeted surface has a module-to-module connecting interface that allows for the modules to be connected, one to the other, as the modules are constructed. This connection is hidden underneath the modules, creating a smooth, co-planar flooring surface. The modules are stacked and strapped

Effect of flooring on standing comfort and fatigue.

PubMed

Cham, R; Redfern, M S

2001-01-01

This study investigated the influence of flooring on subjective discomfort and fatigue during standing and on potentially related objective measures. Participants stood for 4 h on each of 7 flooring conditions while performing computer tasks. During the 3rd and 4th h, floor type had a significant effect on a number of subjective ratings, including lower-leg and lower-back discomfort/fatigue and 2 of 4 objective variables (center of pressure weight shift and lower-extremity skin temperature). In addition, lower-leg volumetric measurements showed tendencies toward greater lower-extremity swelling on uncomfortable floors. The hard floor and 1 floor mat condition consistently had the worst discomfort/fatigue and objective ratings. Significant relationships were noted between the affected subjective ratings and objective variables. In general, floor mats characterized by increased elasticity, decreased energy absorption, and increased stiffness resulted in less discomfort and fatigue. Thus flooring properties do affect low-back and lower-leg discomfort/fatigue, but the result may be detectable only after 3 h of standing. Potential applications of this research include the reduction of work-related health problems associated with long-term standing.

Determination of protection zones for Dutch groundwater wells against virus contamination--uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Schijven, J F; Mülschlegel, J H C; Hassanizadeh, S M; Teunis, P F M; de Roda Husman, A M

2006-09-01

Protection zones of shallow unconfined aquifers in The Netherlands were calculated that allow protection against virus contamination to the level that the infection risk of 10(-4) per person per year is not exceeded with a 95% certainty. An uncertainty and a sensitivity analysis of the calculated protection zones were included. It was concluded that protection zones of 1 to 2 years travel time (206-418 m) are needed (6 to 12 times the currently applied travel time of 60 days). This will lead to enlargement of protection zones, encompassing 110 unconfined groundwater well systems that produce 3 x 10(8) m3 y(-1) of drinking water (38% of total Dutch production from groundwater). A smaller protection zone is possible if it can be shown that an aquifer has properties that lead to greater reduction of virus contamination, like more attachment. Deeper aquifers beneath aquitards of at least 2 years of vertical travel time are adequately protected because vertical flow in the aquitards is only 0.7 m per year. The most sensitive parameters are virus attachment and inactivation. The next most sensitive parameters are grain size of the sand, abstraction rate of groundwater, virus concentrations in raw sewage and consumption of unboiled drinking water. Research is recommended on additional protection by attachment and under unsaturated conditions.

Measurement Uncertainty Budget of the PMV Thermal Comfort Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Can

2016-05-01

Fanger's predicted mean vote (PMV) equation is the result of the combined quantitative effects of the air temperature, mean radiant temperature, air velocity, humidity activity level and clothing thermal resistance. PMV is a mathematical model of thermal comfort which was developed by Fanger. The uncertainty budget of the PMV equation was developed according to GUM in this study. An example is given for the uncertainty model of PMV in the exemplification section of the study. Sensitivity coefficients were derived from the PMV equation. Uncertainty budgets can be seen in the tables. A mathematical model of the sensitivity coefficients of Ta, hc, T_{mrt}, T_{cl}, and Pa is given in this study. And the uncertainty budgets for hc, T_{cl}, and Pa are given in this study.

Use of hardwood flooring in mobile homes

Treesearch

David G. Martens; Leonard J. Koenick; Leonard J. Koenick

1970-01-01

The hardwood flooring industry is losing a new and vigorous market by default. The mobile-home industry produced over 250 million square feet of single-family housing space last year, and very little of this floor space was covered with hardwood flooring. A preliminary glance at this situation seems to uncover an industry that offers many opportunities for hardwood...

Distribution of maple strip flooring in 1969

Treesearch

William C. Miller; William C. Miller

1971-01-01

This paper is the second in a series on the residential and commercial hardwood flooring industry. Unlike the first paper in the series, which dealt with oak strip flooring industry, this paper analyzes several qualitative questions pertaining to the maple flooring industry. The next paper planned for this series will analyze quantitative as well as qualitative...

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR VERY HIGH ORDER MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

While there may in many cases be high potential for exposure of humans and ecosystems to chemicals released from a source, the degree to which this potential is realized is often uncertain. Conceptually, uncertainties are divided among parameters, model, and modeler during simula...

Risk-Sensitivity in Sensorimotor Control

PubMed Central

Braun, Daniel A.; Nagengast, Arne J.; Wolpert, Daniel M.

2011-01-01

Recent advances in theoretical neuroscience suggest that motor control can be considered as a continuous decision-making process in which uncertainty plays a key role. Decision-makers can be risk-sensitive with respect to this uncertainty in that they may not only consider the average payoff of an outcome, but also consider the variability of the payoffs. Although such risk-sensitivity is a well-established phenomenon in psychology and economics, it has been much less studied in motor control. In fact, leading theories of motor control, such as optimal feedback control, assume that motor behaviors can be explained as the optimization of a given expected payoff or cost. Here we review evidence that humans exhibit risk-sensitivity in their motor behaviors, thereby demonstrating sensitivity to the variability of “motor costs.” Furthermore, we discuss how risk-sensitivity can be incorporated into optimal feedback control models of motor control. We conclude that risk-sensitivity is an important concept in understanding individual motor behavior under uncertainty. PMID:21283556

How Are Pelvic Floor Disorders Diagnosed?

MedlinePlus

... Share Facebook Twitter Pinterest Email Print How are pelvic floor disorders diagnosed? A physical exam may be all ... fee ). This test is used to evaluate the pelvic floor and rectum while the patient is having a ...

Pulsations, interpulsations, and sea-floor spreading.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pessagno, E. A., Jr.

1973-01-01

It is postulated that worldwide transgressions (pulsations) and regressions (interpulsations) through the course of geologic time are related to the elevation and subsidence of oceanic ridge systems and to sea-floor spreading. Two multiple working hypotheses are advanced to explain major transgressions and regressions and the elevation and subsidence of oceanic ridge systems. One hypothesis interrelates the sea-floor spreading hypothesis to the hypothesis of sub-Mohorovicic serpentinization. The second hypothesis relates the sea-floor spreading hypothesis to a hypothesis involving thermal expansion and contraction.

Striatal dopamine release codes uncertainty in pathological gambling.

PubMed

Linnet, Jakob; Mouridsen, Kim; Peterson, Ericka; Møller, Arne; Doudet, Doris Jeanne; Gjedde, Albert

2012-10-30

Two mechanisms of midbrain and striatal dopaminergic projections may be involved in pathological gambling: hypersensitivity to reward and sustained activation toward uncertainty. The midbrain-striatal dopamine system distinctly codes reward and uncertainty, where dopaminergic activation is a linear function of expected reward and an inverse U-shaped function of uncertainty. In this study, we investigated the dopaminergic coding of reward and uncertainty in 18 pathological gambling sufferers and 16 healthy controls. We used positron emission tomography (PET) with the tracer [(11)C]raclopride to measure dopamine release, and we used performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to determine overall reward and uncertainty. We hypothesized that we would find a linear function between dopamine release and IGT performance, if dopamine release coded reward in pathological gambling. If, on the other hand, dopamine release coded uncertainty, we would find an inversely U-shaped function. The data supported an inverse U-shaped relation between striatal dopamine release and IGT performance if the pathological gambling group, but not in the healthy control group. These results are consistent with the hypothesis of dopaminergic sensitivity toward uncertainty, and suggest that dopaminergic sensitivity to uncertainty is pronounced in pathological gambling, but not among non-gambling healthy controls. The findings have implications for understanding dopamine dysfunctions in pathological gambling and addictive behaviors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate data induced uncertainty in model-based estimations of terrestrial primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhendong; Ahlström, Anders; Smith, Benjamin; Ardö, Jonas; Eklundh, Lars; Fensholt, Rasmus; Lehsten, Veiko

2017-06-01

Model-based estimations of historical fluxes and pools of the terrestrial biosphere differ substantially. These differences arise not only from differences between models but also from differences in the environmental and climatic data used as input to the models. Here we investigate the role of uncertainties in historical climate data by performing simulations of terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) using a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) forced by six different climate datasets. We find that the climate induced uncertainty, defined as the range among historical simulations in GPP when forcing the model with the different climate datasets, can be as high as 11 Pg C yr-1 globally (9% of mean GPP). We also assessed a hypothetical maximum climate data induced uncertainty by combining climate variables from different datasets, which resulted in significantly larger uncertainties of 41 Pg C yr-1 globally or 32% of mean GPP. The uncertainty is partitioned into components associated to the three main climatic drivers, temperature, precipitation, and shortwave radiation. Additionally, we illustrate how the uncertainty due to a given climate driver depends both on the magnitude of the forcing data uncertainty (climate data range) and the apparent sensitivity of the modeled GPP to the driver (apparent model sensitivity). We find that LPJ-GUESS overestimates GPP compared to empirically based GPP data product in all land cover classes except for tropical forests. Tropical forests emerge as a disproportionate source of uncertainty in GPP estimation both in the simulations and empirical data products. The tropical forest uncertainty is most strongly associated with shortwave radiation and precipitation forcing, of which climate data range contributes higher to overall uncertainty than apparent model sensitivity to forcing. Globally, precipitation dominates the climate induced uncertainty over nearly half of the vegetated land area, which is mainly due

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

2005-08-01

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

Impact evaluation of composite floor sections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boitnott, Richard L.; Fasanella, Edwin L.

1989-01-01

Graphite-epoxy floor sections representative of aircraft fuselage construction were statically and dynamically tested to evaluate their response to crash loadings. These floor sections were fabricated using a frame-stringer design typical of present aluminum aircraft without features to enhance crashworthiness. The floor sections were tested as part of a systematic research program developed to study the impact response of composite components of increasing complexity. The ultimate goal of the research program is to develop crashworthy design features for future composite aircraft. Initially, individual frames of six-foot diameter were tested both statically and dynamically. The frames were then used to construct built-up floor sections for dynamic tests at impact velocities of approximately 20 feet/sec to simulate survivable crash velocities. In addition, static tests were conducted to gain a better understanding of the failure mechanisms seen in the dynamic tests.

Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992. Volume 5, Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of gas and brine migration for undisturbed performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-08-01

Before disposing of transuranic radioactive waste in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the United States Department of Energy (DOE) must evaluate compliance with applicable long-term regulations of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Sandia National Laboratories is conducting iterative performance assessments (PAs) of the WIPP for the DOE to provide interim guidance while preparing for a final compliance evaluation. This volume of the 1992 PA contains results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with respect to migration of gas and brine from the undisturbed repository. Additional information about the 1992 PA is provided in other volumes. Volume 1 containsmore » an overview of WIPP PA and results of a preliminary comparison with 40 CFR 191, Subpart B. Volume 2 describes the technical basis for the performance assessment, including descriptions of the linked computational models used in the Monte Carlo analyses. Volume 3 contains the reference data base and values for input parameters used in consequence and probability modeling. Volume 4 contains uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with respect to the EPA`s Environmental Standards for the Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). Finally, guidance derived from the entire 1992 PA is presented in Volume 6. Results of the 1992 uncertainty and sensitivity analyses indicate that, conditional on the modeling assumptions and the assigned parameter-value distributions, the most important parameters for which uncertainty has the potential to affect gas and brine migration from the undisturbed repository are: initial liquid saturation in the waste, anhydrite permeability, biodegradation-reaction stoichiometry, gas-generation rates for both corrosion and biodegradation under inundated conditions, and the permeability of the long-term shaft seal.« less

Sensitivity-Informed De Novo Programming for Many-Objective Water Portfolio Planning Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Kirsch, B. R.; Characklis, G. W.

2009-12-01

Risk-based water supply management presents severe cognitive, computational, and social challenges to planning in a changing world. Decision aiding frameworks must confront the cognitive biases implicit to risk, the severe uncertainties associated with long term planning horizons, and the consequent ambiguities that shape how we define and solve water resources planning and management problems. This paper proposes and demonstrates a new interactive framework for sensitivity informed de novo programming. The theoretical focus of our many-objective de novo programming is to promote learning and evolving problem formulations to enhance risk-based decision making. We have demonstrated our proposed de novo programming framework using a case study for a single city’s water supply in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) in Texas. Key decisions in this case study include the purchase of permanent rights to reservoir inflows and anticipatory thresholds for acquiring transfers of water through optioning and spot leases. A 10-year Monte Carlo simulation driven by historical data is used to provide performance metrics for the supply portfolios. The three major components of our methodology include Sobol globoal sensitivity analysis, many-objective evolutionary optimization and interactive tradeoff visualization. The interplay between these components allows us to evaluate alternative design metrics, their decision variable controls and the consequent system vulnerabilities. Our LRGV case study measures water supply portfolios’ efficiency, reliability, and utilization of transfers in the water supply market. The sensitivity analysis is used interactively over interannual, annual, and monthly time scales to indicate how the problem controls change as a function of the timescale of interest. These results have been used then to improve our exploration and understanding of LRGV costs, vulnerabilities, and the water portfolios’ critical reliability constraints. These results

Combining uncertainty factors in deriving human exposure levels of noncarcinogenic toxicants.

PubMed

Kodell, R L; Gaylor, D W

1999-01-01

Acceptable levels of human exposure to noncarcinogenic toxicants in environmental and occupational settings generally are derived by reducing experimental no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or benchmark doses (BDs) by a product of uncertainty factors (Barnes and Dourson, Ref. 1). These factors are presumed to ensure safety by accounting for uncertainty in dose extrapolation, uncertainty in duration extrapolation, differential sensitivity between humans and animals, and differential sensitivity among humans. The common default value for each uncertainty factor is 10. This paper shows how estimates of means and standard deviations of the approximately log-normal distributions of individual uncertainty factors can be used to estimate percentiles of the distribution of the product of uncertainty factors. An appropriately selected upper percentile, for example, 95th or 99th, of the distribution of the product can be used as a combined uncertainty factor to replace the conventional product of default factors.

Modeling uncertainty: quicksand for water temperature modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, John M.

2003-01-01

Uncertainty has been a hot topic relative to science generally, and modeling specifically. Modeling uncertainty comes in various forms: measured data, limited model domain, model parameter estimation, model structure, sensitivity to inputs, modelers themselves, and users of the results. This paper will address important components of uncertainty in modeling water temperatures, and discuss several areas that need attention as the modeling community grapples with how to incorporate uncertainty into modeling without getting stuck in the quicksand that prevents constructive contributions to policy making. The material, and in particular the reference, are meant to supplement the presentation given at this conference.

75 FR 66126 - Multilayered Wood Flooring From China

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-27

...)] Multilayered Wood Flooring From China AGENCY: United States International Trade Commission. ACTION: Institution... the United States is materially retarded, by reason of imports from China of multilayered wood... multilayered wood flooring. The following companies are members of the CAHP: Anderson Hardwood Floors, LLC...

Gait of dairy cows on floors with different slipperiness.

PubMed

Telezhenko, E; Magnusson, M; Bergsten, C

2017-08-01

This study assessed the slip resistance of different types of solid flooring in cattle housing using a range of technical tests and gait analysis. Dynamic and static coefficient of friction, skid resistance, and abrasiveness were tested on concrete flooring with a smooth finish, a grooved pattern, or a tamped pattern, acid-resistant mastic asphalt, soft rubber mats, and a worn slatted concrete floor. Coefficients of friction and skid resistance were tested under clean and slurry-soiled conditions. Linear kinematic variables were assessed in 40 cows with trackway measurements after the cows passed over the floors in a straight walk. All gait variables were assessed as deviations from those obtained on the slatted concrete floor, which was used as a baseline. The coefficient of friction tests divided the floors into 3 categories: concrete flooring, which had a low coefficient of friction (0.29-0.41); mastic asphalt flooring, which had medium values (0.38-0.45); and rubber mats, which had high values (0.49-0.57). The highest abrasion (g/10 m) was on the asphalt flooring (4.48), and the concrete flooring with a tamped pattern had significantly higher abrasiveness (2.77) than the other concrete floors (1.26-1.60). Lowest values on the skid-resistance tests (dry/wet) were for smooth concrete (79/35) and mastic asphalt (65/47), especially with a slurry layer on the surface. Gait analysis mainly differentiated floors with higher friction and abrasion by longer strides and better tracking. Step asymmetry was lower on floors with high skid-resistance values. The most secure cow gait, in almost every aspect, was observed on soft rubber mats. Relationships between gait variables and physical floor characteristics ranged from average to weak (partial correlations 0.54-0.16). Thus, none of the physical characteristics alone was informative enough to characterize slip resistance. With reference to gait analysis, the abrasiveness of the hard surfaces was more informative than the

36 CFR 1192.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 1192.79 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles... accommodated shall be slip-resistant. (b) All thresholds and step edges shall have a band of color(s) running... floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

36 CFR 1192.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 1192.79 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles... accommodated shall be slip-resistant. (b) All thresholds and step edges shall have a band of color(s) running... floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

36 CFR 1192.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 1192.79 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles... accommodated shall be slip-resistant. (b) All thresholds and step edges shall have a band of color(s) running... floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

Pressure Sensitive Paints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Tianshu; Bencic, T.; Sullivan, J. P.

1999-01-01

This article reviews new advances and applications of pressure sensitive paints in aerodynamic testing. Emphasis is placed on important technical aspects of pressure sensitive paint including instrumentation, data processing, and uncertainty analysis.

Life cycle inventory of manufacturing prefinished engineered wood flooring in eastern U.S. with comparison to solid strip wood flooring

Treesearch

Richard D. Bergman; Scott A. Bowe

2011-01-01

Building products have come under increased scrutiny because of environmental impacts from their manufacture. Our study followed the life cycle inventory approach for prefinished engineered wood flooring in the eastern US and compared the results with those of solid strip wood flooring. Our study surveyed five engineered wood flooring manufacturers in the eastern US....

Experimental Verification of an Instrument to Test Flooring Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Rony; Löfgren, Hans, Dr

2018-02-01

The focus of this work is to validate the fluid model with different flooring materials and the measurements of an instrument to test flooring materials and its force attenuating capabilities using mathematical models to describe the signature and coefficients of the floor. The main contribution of the present work focus on the development of a mathematical fluid model for floors. The aim of the thesis was to analyze, compare different floor materials and to study the linear dynamics of falling impacts on floors. The impact of the hammer during a fall is captured by an accelerometer and response is collected using a picoscope. The collected data was analyzed using matlab least square method which is coded as per the fluid model. The finding from this thesis showed that the fluid model works with more elastic model but it doesn’t work for rigid materials like wood. The importance of parameters like velocity, mass, energy loss and other coefficients of floor which influences the model during the impact of falling on floors were identified and a standardized testing method was set.

Minimising infection--from floor to ceiling.

PubMed

Peake, Sarah

2014-10-01

Dr Sarah Peake, product sustainability manager at specialty chemicals company, Sika--which provides solutions for concrete, waterproofing, roofing, flooring, refurbishment, sealing and bonding, and industry--looks at the fundamentals for keeping floors, walls, and ceilings in hospitals and other healthcare facilities 'in excellent health'.

Uncertainty in Measurement: Procedures for Determining Uncertainty With Application to Clinical Laboratory Calculations.

PubMed

Frenkel, Robert B; Farrance, Ian

2018-01-01

The "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement" (GUM) is the foundational document of metrology. Its recommendations apply to all areas of metrology including metrology associated with the biomedical sciences. When the output of a measurement process depends on the measurement of several inputs through a measurement equation or functional relationship, the propagation of uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output demands a level of understanding of the differential calculus. This review is intended as an elementary guide to the differential calculus and its application to uncertainty in measurement. The review is in two parts. In Part I, Section 3, we consider the case of a single input and introduce the concepts of error and uncertainty. Next we discuss, in the following sections in Part I, such notions as derivatives and differentials, and the sensitivity of an output to errors in the input. The derivatives of functions are obtained using very elementary mathematics. The overall purpose of this review, here in Part I and subsequently in Part II, is to present the differential calculus for those in the medical sciences who wish to gain a quick but accurate understanding of the propagation of uncertainties. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterizing performance of ultra-sensitive accelerometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebesta, Henry

1990-01-01

An overview is given of methodology and test results pertaining to the characterization of ultra sensitive accelerometers. Two issues are of primary concern. The terminology ultra sensitive accelerometer is used to imply instruments whose noise floors and resolution are at the state of the art. Hence, the typical approach of verifying an instrument's performance by measuring it with a yet higher quality instrument (or standard) is not practical. Secondly, it is difficult to find or create an environment with sufficiently low background acceleration. The typical laboratory acceleration levels will be at several orders of magnitude above the noise floor of the most sensitive accelerometers. Furthermore, this background must be treated as unknown since the best instrument available is the one to be tested. A test methodology was developed in which two or more like instruments are subjected to the same but unknown background acceleration. Appropriately selected spectral analysis techniques were used to separate the sensors' output spectra into coherent components and incoherent components. The coherent part corresponds to the background acceleration being measured by the sensors being tested. The incoherent part is attributed to sensor noise and data acquisition and processing noise. The method works well for estimating noise floors that are 40 to 50 dB below the motion applied to the test accelerometers. The accelerometers being tested are intended for use as feedback sensors in a system to actively stabilize an inertial guidance component test platform.

UCODE_2005 and six other computer codes for universal sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty evaluation constructed using the JUPITER API

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, Eileen E.; Hill, Mary C.; Banta, Edward R.; Mehl, Steffen; Christensen, Steen

2006-01-01

This report documents the computer codes UCODE_2005 and six post-processors. Together the codes can be used with existing process models to perform sensitivity analysis, data needs assessment, calibration, prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Any process model or set of models can be used; the only requirements are that models have numerical (ASCII or text only) input and output files, that the numbers in these files have sufficient significant digits, that all required models can be run from a single batch file or script, and that simulated values are continuous functions of the parameter values. Process models can include pre-processors and post-processors as well as one or more models related to the processes of interest (physical, chemical, and so on), making UCODE_2005 extremely powerful. An estimated parameter can be a quantity that appears in the input files of the process model(s), or a quantity used in an equation that produces a value that appears in the input files. In the latter situation, the equation is user-defined. UCODE_2005 can compare observations and simulated equivalents. The simulated equivalents can be any simulated value written in the process-model output files or can be calculated from simulated values with user-defined equations. The quantities can be model results, or dependent variables. For example, for ground-water models they can be heads, flows, concentrations, and so on. Prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters also can be considered. Statistics are calculated to quantify the comparison of observations and simulated equivalents, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, data-exchange files are produced that facilitate graphical analysis. UCODE_2005 can be used fruitfully in model calibration through its sensitivity analysis capabilities and its ability to estimate parameter values that result in the best possible fit to the observations. Parameters are estimated using nonlinear regression: a

Sensitivity of Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss to Uncertainties in Chemical Reaction Kinetics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. Randolph; Stolarksi, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.

2008-01-01

Several recent observational and laboratory studies of processes involved in polar stratospheric ozone loss have prompted a reexamination of aspects of our understanding for this key indicator of global change. To a large extent, our confidence in understanding and projecting changes in polar and global ozone is based on our ability to simulate these processes in numerical models of chemistry and transport. The fidelity of the models is assessed in comparison with a wide range of observations. These models depend on laboratory-measured kinetic reaction rates and photolysis cross sections to simulate molecular interactions. A typical stratospheric chemistry mechanism has on the order of 50- 100 species undergoing over a hundred intermolecular reactions and several tens of photolysis reactions. The rates of all of these reactions are subject to uncertainty, some substantial. Given the complexity of the models, however, it is difficult to quantify uncertainties in many aspects of system. In this study we use a simple box-model scenario for Antarctic ozone to estimate the uncertainty in loss attributable to known reaction kinetic uncertainties. Following the method of earlier work, rates and uncertainties from the latest laboratory evaluations are applied in random combinations. We determine the key reactions and rates contributing the largest potential errors and compare the results to observations to evaluate which combinations are consistent with atmospheric data. Implications for our theoretical and practical understanding of polar ozone loss will be assessed.

Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment

DOE PAGES

Pasha, M. Fayzul K.; Yeasmin, Dilruba; Saetern, Sen; ...

2016-03-30

Hydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) Model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head ismore » within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10% to 20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Furthermore, mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.« less

49 CFR 38.117 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Floors, steps and thresholds. 38.117 Section 38...) ACCESSIBILITY SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Intercity Rail Cars and Systems § 38.117 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles, step treads and areas where wheelchair and mobility aid...

7 CFR 3201.81 - Floor coverings (non-carpet).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., that are designed for use as the top layer on a floor. Examples are bamboo, hardwood, and cork tiles...—floor tiles. USDA is requesting that manufacturers of these qualifying biobased products provide... floor tile products and which product should be afforded the preference in purchasing. Note to paragraph...

7 CFR 3201.81 - Floor coverings (non-carpet).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., that are designed for use as the top layer on a floor. Examples are bamboo, hardwood, and cork tiles...—floor tiles. USDA is requesting that manufacturers of these qualifying biobased products provide... floor tile products and which product should be afforded the preference in purchasing. Note to paragraph...

An international Urogynecological association (IUGA)/international continence society (ICS) joint report on the terminology for the assessment of sexual health of women with pelvic floor dysfunction.

PubMed

Rogers, Rebecca G; Pauls, Rachel N; Thakar, Ranee; Morin, Melanie; Kuhn, Annette; Petri, Eckhard; Fatton, Brigitte; Whitmore, Kristene; Kingsberg, Sheryl A; Lee, Joseph

2018-05-01

The terminology in current use for sexual function and dysfunction in women with pelvic floor disorders lacks uniformity, which leads to uncertainty, confusion, and unintended ambiguity. The terminology for the sexual health of women with pelvic floor dysfunction needs to be collated in a clinically-based consensus report. This report combines the input of members of the Standardization and Terminology Committees of two International Organizations, the International Urogynecological Association (IUGA), and the International Continence Society (ICS), assisted at intervals by many external referees. Internal and external review was developed to exhaustively examine each definition, with decision-making by collective opinion (consensus). Importantly, this report is not meant to replace, but rather complement current terminology used in other fields for female sexual health and to clarify terms specific to women with pelvic floor dysfunction. A clinically based terminology report for sexual health in women with pelvic floor dysfunction encompassing over 100 separate definitions, has been developed. Key aims have been to make the terminology interpretable by practitioners, trainees, and researchers in female pelvic floor dysfunction. Interval review (5-10 years) is anticipated to keep the document updated and as widely acceptable as possible. A consensus-based terminology report for female sexual health in women with pelvic floor dysfunction has been produced aimed at being a significant aid to clinical practice and a stimulus for research.

An International Urogynecological Association (IUGA)/International Continence Society (ICS) joint report on the terminology for the assessment of sexual health of women with pelvic floor dysfunction.

PubMed

Rogers, Rebecca G; Pauls, Rachel N; Thakar, Ranee; Morin, Melanie; Kuhn, Annette; Petri, Eckhard; Fatton, Brigitte; Whitmore, Kristene; Kinsberg, Sheryl; Lee, Joseph

2018-04-01

The terminology in current use for sexual function and dysfunction in women with pelvic floor disorders lacks uniformity, which leads to uncertainty, confusion, and unintended ambiguity. The terminology for the sexual health of women with pelvic floor dysfunction needs to be collated in a clinically-based consensus report. This report combines the input of members of the Standardization and Terminology Committees of two International Organizations, the International Urogynecological Association (IUGA), and the International Continence Society (ICS), assisted at intervals by many external referees. Internal and external review was developed to exhaustively examine each definition, with decision-making by collective opinion (consensus). Importantly, this report is not meant to replace, but rather complement current terminology used in other fields for female sexual health and to clarify terms specific to women with pelvic floor dysfunction. A clinically based terminology report for sexual health in women with pelvic floor dysfunction encompassing over 100 separate definitions, has been developed. Key aims have been to make the terminology interpretable by practitioners, trainees, and researchers in female pelvic floor dysfunction. Interval review (5-10 years) is anticipated to keep the document updated and as widely acceptable as possible. A consensus-based terminology report for female sexual health in women with pelvic floor dysfunction has been produced aimed at being a significant aid to clinical practice and a stimulus for research. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Radiologist Uncertainty and the Interpretation of Screening

PubMed Central

Carney, Patricia A.; Elmore, Joann G.; Abraham, Linn A.; Gerrity, Martha S.; Hendrick, R. Edward; Taplin, Stephen H.; Barlow, William E.; Cutter, Gary R.; Poplack, Steven P.; D’Orsi, Carl J.

2011-01-01

Objective To determine radiologists’ reactions to uncertainty when interpreting mammography and the extent to which radiologist uncertainty explains variability in interpretive performance. Methods The authors used a mailed survey to assess demographic and clinical characteristics of radiologists and reactions to uncertainty associated with practice. Responses were linked to radiologists’ actual interpretive performance data obtained from 3 regionally located mammography registries. Results More than 180 radiologists were eligible to participate, and 139 consented for a response rate of 76.8%. Radiologist gender, more years interpreting, and higher volume were associated with lower uncertainty scores. Positive predictive value, recall rates, and specificity were more affected by reactions to uncertainty than sensitivity or negative predictive value; however, none of these relationships was statistically significant. Conclusion Certain practice factors, such as gender and years of interpretive experience, affect uncertainty scores. Radiologists’ reactions to uncertainty do not appear to affect interpretive performance. PMID:15155014

Uncertainty quantification in volumetric Particle Image Velocimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Sayantan; Charonko, John; Vlachos, Pavlos

2016-11-01

Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) uncertainty quantification is challenging due to coupled sources of elemental uncertainty and complex data reduction procedures in the measurement chain. Recent developments in this field have led to uncertainty estimation methods for planar PIV. However, no framework exists for three-dimensional volumetric PIV. In volumetric PIV the measurement uncertainty is a function of reconstructed three-dimensional particle location that in turn is very sensitive to the accuracy of the calibration mapping function. Furthermore, the iterative correction to the camera mapping function using triangulated particle locations in space (volumetric self-calibration) has its own associated uncertainty due to image noise and ghost particle reconstructions. Here we first quantify the uncertainty in the triangulated particle position which is a function of particle detection and mapping function uncertainty. The location uncertainty is then combined with the three-dimensional cross-correlation uncertainty that is estimated as an extension of the 2D PIV uncertainty framework. Finally the overall measurement uncertainty is quantified using an uncertainty propagation equation. The framework is tested with both simulated and experimental cases. For the simulated cases the variation of estimated uncertainty with the elemental volumetric PIV error sources are also evaluated. The results show reasonable prediction of standard uncertainty with good coverage.

36 CFR 1192.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Floors, steps and thresholds... Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 1192.79 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles, step treads, places for standees, and areas where wheelchair and mobility aid users are to be...

49 CFR 38.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Floors, steps and thresholds. 38.79 Section 38.79... SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 38.79 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles, step treads, places for standees, and areas where wheelchair and...

49 CFR 38.99 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Floors, steps and thresholds. 38.99 Section 38.99... SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Commuter Rail Cars and Systems § 38.99 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles, step treads, places for standees, and areas where wheelchair and...

Climate data induced uncertainty in model based estimations of terrestrial primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.; Ahlström, A.; Smith, B.; Ardö, J.; Eklundh, L.; Fensholt, R.; Lehsten, V.

2016-12-01

Models used to project global vegetation and carbon cycle differ in their estimates of historical fluxes and pools. These differences arise not only from differences between models but also from differences in the environmental and climatic data that forces the models. Here we investigate the role of uncertainties in historical climate data, encapsulated by a set of six historical climate datasets. We focus on terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) and analyze the results from a dynamic process-based vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) forced by six different climate datasets and two empirical datasets of GPP (derived from flux towers and remote sensing). We find that the climate induced uncertainty, defined as the difference among historical simulations in GPP when forcing the model with the different climate datasets, can be as high as 33 Pg C yr-1 globally (19% of mean GPP). The uncertainty is partitioned into the three main climatic drivers, temperature, precipitation, and shortwave radiation. Additionally, we illustrate how the uncertainty due to a given climate driver depends both on the magnitude of the forcing data uncertainty (the data range) and the sensitivity of the modeled GPP to the driver (the ecosystem sensitivity). The analysis is performed globally and stratified into five land cover classes. We find that the dynamic vegetation model overestimates GPP, compared to empirically based GPP data over most areas, except for the tropical region. Both the simulations and empirical estimates agree that the tropical region is a disproportionate source of uncertainty in GPP estimation. This is mainly caused by uncertainties in shortwave radiation forcing, of which climate data range contributes slightly higher uncertainty than ecosystem sensitivity to shortwave radiation. We also find that precipitation dominated the climate induced uncertainty over nearly half of terrestrial vegetated surfaces, which is mainly due to large ecosystem sensitivity to

7 CFR 3201.39 - Floor strippers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Floor strippers. 3201.39 Section 3201.39 Agriculture... Items § 3201.39 Floor strippers. (a) Definition. Products that are formulated to loosen waxes, resins... strippers. By that date, Federal agencies that have the responsibility for drafting or reviewing...

7 CFR 3201.39 - Floor strippers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Floor strippers. 3201.39 Section 3201.39 Agriculture... Items § 3201.39 Floor strippers. (a) Definition. Products that are formulated to loosen waxes, resins... strippers. By that date, Federal agencies that have the responsibility for drafting or reviewing...

7 CFR 3201.39 - Floor strippers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Floor strippers. 3201.39 Section 3201.39 Agriculture... Items § 3201.39 Floor strippers. (a) Definition. Products that are formulated to loosen waxes, resins... strippers. By that date, Federal agencies that have the responsibility for drafting or reviewing...

Knowledge of the pelvic floor in nulliparous women

PubMed Central

Neels, Hedwig; Wyndaele, Jean-Jacques; Tjalma, Wiebren A. A.; De Wachter, Stefan; Wyndaele, Michel; Vermandel, Alexandra

2016-01-01

[Purpose] Proper pelvic floor function is important to avoid serious dysfunctions including incontinence, prolapse, and sexual problems. The current study evaluated the knowledge of young nulliparous women about their pelvic floor and identified what additional information they wanted. [Subjects and Methods] In this cross-sectional survey, a validated, 36 item questionnaire was distributed to 212 nulliparous women. The questionnaire addressed demography, pelvic floor muscles, pelvic floor dysfunction, and possible information sources. Descriptive statistics were generated for all variables. Stability and validity testing were performed using Kappa statistics and intra class correlation coefficients to define agreement for each question. The study was approved by the ethics Committee (B300201318334). [Results] Using a VAS scale (0 to 10), the women rated their knowledge about the pelvic floor as a mean of 2.4 (SD 2.01). A total of 93% of the women were insufficiently informed and requested more information; 25% had concerns about developing urinary incontinence, and 14% about fecal incontinence. Many of the women were unaware what pelvic floor training meant. [Conclusion] There was a significant lack of knowledge about pelvic floor function among nulliparous women. The majority of nulliparous women expressed a need for education, which might offer a way to reduce dysfunction. PMID:27313364

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 2: Uncertainties due to reaction rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, R. S.; Butler, D. M.; Rundel, R. D.

1977-01-01

A concise stratospheric model was used in a Monte-Carlo analysis of the propagation of reaction rate uncertainties through the calculation of an ozone perturbation due to the addition of chlorine. Two thousand Monte-Carlo cases were run with 55 reaction rates being varied. Excellent convergence was obtained in the output distributions because the model is sensitive to the uncertainties in only about 10 reactions. For a 1 ppby chlorine perturbation added to a 1.5 ppby chlorine background, the resultant 1 sigma uncertainty on the ozone perturbation is a factor of 1.69 on the high side and 1.80 on the low side. The corresponding 2 sigma factors are 2.86 and 3.23. Results are also given for the uncertainties, due to reaction rates, in the ambient concentrations of stratospheric species.

Deflection of resilient materials for reduction of floor impact sound.

PubMed

Lee, Jung-Yoon; Kim, Jong-Mun

2014-01-01

Recently, many residents living in apartment buildings in Korea have been bothered by noise coming from the houses above. In order to reduce noise pollution, communities are increasingly imposing bylaws, including the limitation of floor impact sound, minimum thickness of floors, and floor soundproofing solutions. This research effort focused specifically on the deflection of resilient materials in the floor sound insulation systems of apartment houses. The experimental program involved conducting twenty-seven material tests and ten sound insulation floating concrete floor specimens. Two main parameters were considered in the experimental investigation: the seven types of resilient materials and the location of the loading point. The structural behavior of sound insulation floor floating was predicted using the Winkler method. The experimental and analytical results indicated that the cracking strength of the floating concrete floor significantly increased with increasing the tangent modulus of resilient material. The deflection of the floating concrete floor loaded at the side of the specimen was much greater than that of the floating concrete floor loaded at the center of the specimen. The Winkler model considering the effect of modulus of resilient materials was able to accurately predict the cracking strength of the floating concrete floor.

Investigation of uncertainty in CO 2 reservoir models: A sensitivity analysis of relative permeability parameter values

DOE PAGES

Yoshida, Nozomu; Levine, Jonathan S.; Stauffer, Philip H.

2016-03-22

Numerical reservoir models of CO 2 injection in saline formations rely on parameterization of laboratory-measured pore-scale processes. Here, we have performed a parameter sensitivity study and Monte Carlo simulations to determine the normalized change in total CO 2 injected using the finite element heat and mass-transfer code (FEHM) numerical reservoir simulator. Experimentally measured relative permeability parameter values were used to generate distribution functions for parameter sampling. The parameter sensitivity study analyzed five different levels for each of the relative permeability model parameters. All but one of the parameters changed the CO 2 injectivity by <10%, less than the geostatistical uncertainty that applies to all large subsurface systems due to natural geophysical variability and inherently small sample sizes. The exception was the end-point CO 2 relative permeability, kmore » $$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, the maximum attainable effective CO 2 permeability during CO 2 invasion, which changed CO2 injectivity by as much as 80%. Similarly, Monte Carlo simulation using 1000 realizations of relative permeability parameters showed no relationship between CO 2 injectivity and any of the parameters but k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, which had a very strong (R 2 = 0.9685) power law relationship with total CO 2 injected. Model sensitivity to k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2 points to the importance of accurate core flood and wettability measurements.« less

Investigation of uncertainty in CO 2 reservoir models: A sensitivity analysis of relative permeability parameter values

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoshida, Nozomu; Levine, Jonathan S.; Stauffer, Philip H.

Numerical reservoir models of CO 2 injection in saline formations rely on parameterization of laboratory-measured pore-scale processes. Here, we have performed a parameter sensitivity study and Monte Carlo simulations to determine the normalized change in total CO 2 injected using the finite element heat and mass-transfer code (FEHM) numerical reservoir simulator. Experimentally measured relative permeability parameter values were used to generate distribution functions for parameter sampling. The parameter sensitivity study analyzed five different levels for each of the relative permeability model parameters. All but one of the parameters changed the CO 2 injectivity by <10%, less than the geostatistical uncertainty that applies to all large subsurface systems due to natural geophysical variability and inherently small sample sizes. The exception was the end-point CO 2 relative permeability, kmore » $$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, the maximum attainable effective CO 2 permeability during CO 2 invasion, which changed CO2 injectivity by as much as 80%. Similarly, Monte Carlo simulation using 1000 realizations of relative permeability parameters showed no relationship between CO 2 injectivity and any of the parameters but k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, which had a very strong (R 2 = 0.9685) power law relationship with total CO 2 injected. Model sensitivity to k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2 points to the importance of accurate core flood and wettability measurements.« less

Buffing, burnishing, and stripping of vinyl asbestos floor tile

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollett, B.A.; Edwards, A.; Clark, P.J.

Studies were conducted to evaluate airborne asbestos concentrations during the three principal types of preventative maintenance (low-speed spray-buffing, ultra high-speed burnishing, and wet-stripping) used on asbestos-containing floor tiles. These were done under pre-existing and prepared levels of floor care maintenance. Airborne asbestos concentrations were measured before and during each floor care procedure to determine the magnitude of the increase in airborne asbestos levels during each procedure. Airborne total fiber concentrations were also measured for comparison with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration`s (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL) of 0.1 f/cm{sup 3}. Low-speed spray-buffing and wet-stripping were evaluated on pre-existing floormore » conditions and three levels of prepared floor care conditions (poor, medium, and good). Ultra high-speed burnishing and wet-stripping were evaluated on two levels of prepared floor care conditions (poor and good). Floor care conditions were defined in consultation with the Chemical Specialty Manufacturers Association and other representatives of floor-care chemical manufacturers. Controlled studies were conducted in an unoccupied building at the decommissioned Chanute Air Force Base in Rantoul, Illinois, with the cooperation of the U.S. Air Force. The building offered approximately 8600 ft{sup 2} of open floor space tiled with 9-inch by 9-inch resilient floor tile containing approximately 5% chrysotile asbestos.« less

Localization of wood floor structure by infrared thermography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochior Plescanu, C.; Klein, M.; Ibarra-Castanedo, C.; Bendada, A.; Maldague, X.

2008-03-01

One of our industrial partners, Assek Technologie, is interested in developing a technique that would improve the drying process of wood floor in basements after flooding. In order to optimize the procedure, the floor structure and the damaged (wet) area extent must first be determined with minimum intrusion (minimum or no dismantling). The present study presents the use of infrared thermography to reveal the structure of (flooded) wood floors. The procedure involves opening holes in the floor. Injecting some hot air through those holes reveals the framing structure even if the floor is covered by vinyl or ceramic tiles. This study indicates that thermal imaging can also be used as a tool to validate the decontamination process after drying. Thermal images were obtained on small-scale models and in a demonstration room.

36 CFR 1192.99 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Floors, steps and thresholds... Commuter Rail Cars and Systems § 1192.99 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles, step... shall be slip-resistant. (b) All thresholds and step edges shall have a band of color(s) running the...

The Inter-Annual Variability Analysis of Carbon Exchange in Low Artic Fen Uncovers The Climate Sensitivity And The Uncertainties Around Net Ecosystem Exchange Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco, E. L.; Lund, M.; Williams, M. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Tamstorf, M. P.

2015-12-01

An improvement in our process-based understanding of CO2 exchanges in the Arctic, and their climate sensitivity, is critical for examining the role of tundra ecosystems in changing climates. Arctic organic carbon storage has seen increased attention in recent years due to large potential for carbon releases following thaw. Our knowledge about the exact scale and sensitivity for a phase-change of these C stocks are, however, limited. Minor variations in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) driven by changes in the climate can lead to either C sink or C source states, which likely will impact the overall C cycle of the ecosystem. Eddy covariance data is usually used to partition Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) into GPP and Reco achieved by flux separation algorithms. However, different partitioning approaches lead to different estimates. as well as undefined uncertainties. The main objectives of this study are to use model-data fusion approaches to (1) determine the inter-annual variability in C source/sink strength for an Arctic fen, and attribute such variations to GPP vs Reco, (2) investigate the climate sensitivity of these processes and (3) explore the uncertainties in NEE partitioning. The intention is to elaborate on the information gathered in an existing catchment area under an extensive cross-disciplinary ecological monitoring program in low Arctic West Greenland, established under the auspices of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program. The use of such a thorough long-term (7 years) dataset applied to the exploration in inter-annual variability of carbon exchange, related driving factors and NEE partition uncertainties provides a novel input into our understanding about land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

36 CFR 1192.117 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Floors, steps and thresholds... Intercity Rail Cars and Systems § 1192.117 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on aisles, step.... (b) All step edges and thresholds shall have a band of color(s) running the full width of the step or...

Motor cortical representation of the pelvic floor muscles.

PubMed

Schrum, A; Wolff, S; van der Horst, C; Kuhtz-Buschbeck, J P

2011-07-01

Pelvic floor muscle training involves rhythmical voluntary contractions of the external urethral sphincter and ancillary pelvic floor muscles. The representation of these muscles in the motor cortex has not been located precisely and unambiguously. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine brain activity during slow and fast pelvic floor contractions. Cerebral responses were recorded in 17 healthy male volunteers, 21 to 47 years old, with normal bladder control. Functional magnetic resonance imaging was performed during metronome paced slow (0.25 Hertz) and fast (0.7 Hertz) contractions of the pelvic floor that mimicked the interruption of voiding. To study the somatotopy of the cortical representations, flexion-extension movements of the right toes were performed as a control task. Functional magnetic resonance imaging during pelvic floor contractions detected activity of the supplementary motor area in the medial wall and of the midcingulate cortex, insula, posterior parietal cortex, putamen, thalamus, cerebellar vermis and upper ventral pons. There were no significant differences in activation between slow and fast contractions. Toe movements involved significantly stronger activity of the paracentral lobule (ie the medial primary motor cortex) than did the pelvic floor contractions. Otherwise the areas active during pelvic floor and leg muscle contractions overlapped considerably. The motor cortical representation of pelvic floor muscles is located mostly in the supplementary motor area. It extends further ventrally and anteriorly than the representation of distal leg muscles. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis version 6.0 theory manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quanti cation, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.« less

9 CFR 91.26 - Concrete flooring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Concrete flooring. 91.26 Section 91.26... LIVESTOCK FOR EXPORTATION Inspection of Vessels and Accommodations § 91.26 Concrete flooring. (a) Pens aboard an ocean vessel shall have a 3 inch concrete pavement, proportioned and mixed to give 2000 psi...

Surgical reconstruction of pelvic floor descent: anatomic and functional aspects.

PubMed

Wagenlehner, F M E; Bschleipfer, T; Liedl, B; Gunnemann, A; Petros, P; Weidner, W

2010-01-01

The human pelvic floor is a complex structure and pelvic floor dysfunction is seen frequently in females. This review focuses on the surgical reconstruction of the pelvic floor employing recent findings on functional anatomy. A selective literature research was performed by the authors. Pelvic floor activity is regulated by 3 main muscular forces that are responsible for vaginal tension and suspension of the pelvic floor organs, bladder and rectum. A variety of symptoms can derive from pelvic floor dysfunctions, such as urinary urge and stress incontinence, abnormal bladder emptying, fecal incontinence, obstructive bowel disease syndrome and pelvic pain. These symptoms mainly derive, for different reasons, from laxity in the vagina or its supporting ligaments as a result of altered connective tissue. Pelvic floor reconstruction is nowadays driven by the concept that in case of pelvic floor symptoms, restoration of the anatomy will translate into restoration of the physiology and ultimately improve patients' symptoms. The surgical reconstruction of the anatomy is almost exclusively focused on the restoration of the lax pelvic floor ligaments. Exact preoperative identification of the anatomical lesions is necessary to allow for exact anatomical reconstruction with respect to the muscular forces of the pelvic floor. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Deflection of Resilient Materials for Reduction of Floor Impact Sound

PubMed Central

Lee, Jung-Yoon; Kim, Jong-Mun

2014-01-01

Recently, many residents living in apartment buildings in Korea have been bothered by noise coming from the houses above. In order to reduce noise pollution, communities are increasingly imposing bylaws, including the limitation of floor impact sound, minimum thickness of floors, and floor soundproofing solutions. This research effort focused specifically on the deflection of resilient materials in the floor sound insulation systems of apartment houses. The experimental program involved conducting twenty-seven material tests and ten sound insulation floating concrete floor specimens. Two main parameters were considered in the experimental investigation: the seven types of resilient materials and the location of the loading point. The structural behavior of sound insulation floor floating was predicted using the Winkler method. The experimental and analytical results indicated that the cracking strength of the floating concrete floor significantly increased with increasing the tangent modulus of resilient material. The deflection of the floating concrete floor loaded at the side of the specimen was much greater than that of the floating concrete floor loaded at the center of the specimen. The Winkler model considering the effect of modulus of resilient materials was able to accurately predict the cracking strength of the floating concrete floor. PMID:25574491

Validation and cultural adaptation of a German version of the Physicians' Reactions to Uncertainty scales

PubMed Central

Schneider, Antonius; Szecsenyi, Joachim; Barie, Stefan; Joest, Katharina; Rosemann, Thomas

2007-01-01

Background The aim of the study was to examine the validity of a translated and culturally adapted version of the Physicians' Reaction to Uncertainty scales (PRU) in primary care physicians. Methods In a structured process, the original questionnaire was translated, culturally adapted and assessed after administering it to 93 GPs. Test-retest reliability was tested by sending the questionnaire to the GPs again after two weeks. Results The principal factor analysis confirmed the postulated four-factor structure underlying the 15 items. In contrast to the original version, item 5 achieved a higher loading on the 'concern about bad outcomes' scale. Consequently, we rearranged the scales. Good item-scale correlations were obtained, with Pearson's correlation coefficient ranging from 0.56–0.84. As regards the item-discriminant validity between the scales 'anxiety due to uncertainty' and 'concern about bad outcomes', partially high correlations (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.02–0.69; p < 0.001) were found, indicating an overlap between both constructs. The assessment of internal consistency revealed satisfactory values; Cronbach's alpha of the rearranged version was 0.86 or higher for all scales. Test-retest-reliability, assessed by means of the intraclass-correlation-coefficient (ICC), exceeded 0.84, except for the 'reluctance to disclose mistakes to physicians' scale (ICC = 0.66). In this scale, some substantial floor effects occurred, with 29.3% of answers showing the lowest possible value. Conclusion Dealing with uncertainty is an important issue in daily practice. The psychometric properties of the rearranged German version of the PRU are satisfying. The revealed floor effects do not limit the significance of the questionnaire. Thus, the German version of the PRU could contribute to the further evaluation of the impact of uncertainty in primary care physicians. PMID:17562018

Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carslaw, K. S.; Lee, L. A.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.; Mann, G. W.; Spracklen, D. V.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Regayre, L. A.; Pierce, J. R.

2013-11-01

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.

Historical Cavern Floor Rise for All SPR Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moriarty, Dylan Michael

2016-09-01

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) contains the largest supply is the largest stockpile of government-owned emergency crude oil in the world. The oil is stored in multiple salt caverns spread over four sites in Louisiana and Texas. Cavern infrastructure near the bottom of the cavern can be damaged from vertical floor movement. This report presents a comprehensive history of floor movements in each cavern. Most of the cavern floor rise rates ranged from 0.5-3.5 ft/yr, however, there were several caverns with much higher rise rates. BH103, BM106, and BH105 had the three highest rise rates. Information from this report willmore » be used to better predict future vertical floor movements and optimally place cavern infrastructure. The reasons for floor rise are not entirely understood and should be investigated.« less

Evaluation of uncertainties in the CRCM-simulated North American climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Elía, Ramón; Caya, Daniel; Côté, Hélène; Frigon, Anne; Biner, Sébastien; Giguère, Michel; Paquin, Dominique; Harvey, Richard; Plummer, David

2008-02-01

This work is a first step in the analysis of uncertainty sources in the RCM-simulated climate over North America. Three main sets of sensitivity studies were carried out: the first estimates the magnitude of internal variability, which is needed to evaluate the significance of changes in the simulated climate induced by any model modification. The second is devoted to the role of CRCM configuration as a source of uncertainty, in particular the sensitivity to nesting technique, domain size, and driving reanalysis. The third study aims to assess the relative importance of the previously estimated sensitivities by performing two additional sensitivity experiments: one, in which the reanalysis driving data is replaced by data generated by the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2), and another, in which a different CRCM version is used. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in initial conditions, is much smaller than the sensitivity to any other source. Results also show that levels of uncertainty originating from liberty of choices in the definition of configuration parameters are comparable among themselves and are smaller than those due to the choice of CGCM or CRCM version used. These results suggest that uncertainty originated by the CRCM configuration latitude (freedom of choice among domain sizes, nesting techniques and reanalysis dataset), although important, does not seem to be a major obstacle to climate downscaling. Finally, with the aim of evaluating the combined effect of the different uncertainties, the ensemble spread is estimated for a subset of the analysed simulations. Results show that downscaled surface temperature is in general more uncertain in the northern regions, while precipitation is more uncertain in the central and eastern US.

Computation and visualization of uncertainty in surgical navigation.

PubMed

Simpson, Amber L; Ma, Burton; Vasarhelyi, Edward M; Borschneck, Dan P; Ellis, Randy E; James Stewart, A

2014-09-01

Surgical displays do not show uncertainty information with respect to the position and orientation of instruments. Data is presented as though it were perfect; surgeons unaware of this uncertainty could make critical navigational mistakes. The propagation of uncertainty to the tip of a surgical instrument is described and a novel uncertainty visualization method is proposed. An extensive study with surgeons has examined the effect of uncertainty visualization on surgical performance with pedicle screw insertion, a procedure highly sensitive to uncertain data. It is shown that surgical performance (time to insert screw, degree of breach of pedicle, and rotation error) is not impeded by the additional cognitive burden imposed by uncertainty visualization. Uncertainty can be computed in real time and visualized without adversely affecting surgical performance, and the best method of uncertainty visualization may depend upon the type of navigation display. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of pelvic floor muscle exercise on pelvic floor muscle activity and voiding functions during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

PubMed

Kahyaoglu Sut, Hatice; Balkanli Kaplan, Petek

2016-03-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of pelvic floor muscle exercise during pregnancy and the postpartum period on pelvic floor muscle activity and voiding functions. Pregnant women (n = 60) were randomly assigned into two groups (Training [n = 30] and Control [n = 30]) using a computer-based system. Pelvic floor muscle strength was measured using a perineometry device. Urinary symptoms were measured using the Urinary Distress Inventory (UDI-6), Incontinence Impact Questionnaire (IIQ-7), and the Overactive Bladder Questionnaire (OAB-q). Voiding functions were measured using uroflowmetry and 3-day voiding diaries. Measurements were obtained at week 28, weeks 36-38 of pregnancy, and postpartum weeks 6-8. Pelvic floor muscle strength significantly decreased during the pregnancy (P < 0.001). However, pelvic floor muscle strength improvement was significantly higher in the Training group compared to the Control group (P < 0.001). The UDI-6, IIQ-7, and OAB-q scores did not significantly change during weeks 36-38 of pregnancy in the Training group (P > 0.05). However, UDI-6, coping, concern, and total scores of OAB-q were significantly decreased during weeks 36-38 of pregnancy in the Control group (P < 0.05). The UDI-6 and OAB-q scores were significantly improved during postpartum weeks 6-8 (P < 0.05). Voiding functions were negatively affected in both groups, decreasing during weeks 36-38 of pregnancy and improving during the postpartum period. Pregnancy and delivery affect pelvic floor muscle strength, urinary symptoms, quality of life, and voiding functions. Pelvic floor muscle exercises applied during pregnancy and the postpartum period increase pelvic floor muscle strength and prevent deterioration of urinary symptoms and quality of life in pregnancy. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Forest Floor Characteristics in Southwestern Wisconsin

Treesearch

M. Dean Knighton

1970-01-01

Percent slope, aspect, topographic position, and crown closure were found to have no significant influence on forest floor depth in southwestern Wisconsin. However, a significant decrease in forest floor depth and an increase in soil compaction were found on currently grazed slopes. Yet when grazing is stopped recovery is apperently quick with no permanent damage....

2. VIEW OF LOWER MILL FLOOR FOUNDATION, SHOWING, LEFT TO ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

2. VIEW OF LOWER MILL FLOOR FOUNDATION, SHOWING, LEFT TO RIGHT, EDGE OF MILLING FLOOR, TABLE FLOOR, VANNING FLOOR, LOADING LEVEL, TAILINGS POND IN RIGHT BACKGROUND. VIEW IS LOOKING FROM THE NORTHWEST - Mountain King Gold Mine & Mill, 4.3 Air miles Northwest of Copperopolis, Copperopolis, Calaveras County, CA

What Do You Really Know About Floor Finishes & Strippers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wirth, T. J.

1972-01-01

An independent testing laboratory reveals the results of comparative studies done on vinyl flooring and the question of to wax or not to wax'' and which waxes work best with what flooring; and provides six evaluation tips on floor strippers. (EA)

Comparison of changes in the mobility of the pelvic floor muscle on during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver, maximal expiration, and pelvic floor muscle maximal contraction.

PubMed

Jung, Halim; Jung, Sangwoo; Joo, Sunghee; Song, Changho

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to compare changes in the mobility of the pelvic floor muscle during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver, maximal expiration, and pelvic floor muscle maximal contraction. [Subjects] Thirty healthy adults participated in this study (15 men and 15 women). [Methods] All participants performed a bridge exercise and abdominal curl-up during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver, maximal expiration, and pelvic floor muscle maximal contraction. Pelvic floor mobility was evaluated as the distance from the bladder base using ultrasound. [Results] According to exercise method, bridge exercise and abdominal curl-ups led to significantly different pelvic floor mobility. The pelvic floor muscle was elevated during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver and descended during maximal expiration. Finally, pelvic floor muscle mobility was greater during abdominal curl-up than during the bridge exercise. [Conclusion] According to these results, the abdominal drawing-in maneuver induced pelvic floor muscle contraction, and pelvic floor muscle contraction was greater during the abdominal curl-up than during the bridge exercise.

Floor Identification with Commercial Smartphones in Wifi-Based Indoor Localization System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ai, H. J.; Liu, M. Y.; Shi, Y. M.; Zhao, J. Q.

2016-06-01

In this paper, we utilize novel sensors built-in commercial smart devices to propose a schema which can identify floors with high accuracy and efficiency. This schema can be divided into two modules: floor identifying and floor change detection. Floor identifying module starts at initial phase of positioning, and responsible for determining which floor the positioning start. We have estimated two methods to identify initial floor based on K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and BP Neural Network, respectively. In order to improve performance of KNN algorithm, we proposed a novel method based on weighting signal strength, which can identify floors robust and quickly. Floor change detection module turns on after entering into continues positioning procedure. In this module, sensors (such as accelerometer and barometer) of smart devices are used to determine whether the user is going up and down stairs or taking an elevator. This method has fused different kinds of sensor data and can adapt various motion pattern of users. We conduct our experiment with mobile client on Android Phone (Nexus 5) at a four-floors building with an open area between the second and third floor. The results demonstrate that our scheme can achieve an accuracy of 99% to identify floor and 97% to detecting floor changes as a whole.

[Postpartum pelvic floor muscle training and abdominal rehabilitation: Guidelines].

PubMed

Deffieux, X; Vieillefosse, S; Billecocq, S; Battut, A; Nizard, J; Coulm, B; Thubert, T

2015-12-01

Provide guidelines for clinical practice concerning postpartum rehabilitation. Systematically review of the literature concerning postpartum pelvic floor muscle training and abdominal rehabilitation. Pelvic-floor rehabilitation using pelvic floor muscle contraction exercises is recommended to treat persistent urinary incontinence at 3 months postpartum (grade A), regardless of the type of incontinence. At least 3 guided sessions with a therapist is recommended, associated with pelvic floor muscle exercises at home. This postpartum rehabilitation improves short-term urinary incontinence (1 year) but not long-term (6-12 years). Early pelvic-floor rehabilitation (within 2 months following childbirth) is not recommended (grade C). Postpartum pelvic-floor rehabilitation in women presenting with anal incontinence, is associated with a lower prevalence of anal incontinence symptoms in short-term (1 year) (EL3) but not long-term (6 and 12) (EL3). Postpartum pelvic-floor rehabilitation is recommended to treat anal incontinence (grade C) but results are not maintained in medium or long term. No randomized trials have evaluated the pelvic-floor rehabilitation in asymptomatic women in order to prevent urinary or anal incontinence in medium or long term. It is therefore not recommended (expert consensus). Rehabilitation supervised by a therapist (physiotherapist or midwife) is not associated with better results than simple advice for voluntary contraction of the pelvic floor muscles to prevent/correct, in short term (6 months), a persistent prolapse 6 weeks postpartum (EL2), whether or not with a levator ani avulsion (EL3). Postpartum pelvic-floor rehabilitation is not associated with a decrease in the prevalence of dyspareunia at 1-year follow-up (EL3). Postpartum pelvic-floor rehabilitation guided by a therapist is therefore not recommended to treat or prevent prolapse (grade C) or dyspareunia (grade C). No randomized trials have evaluated the effect of pelvic

Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor.

PubMed

Kandasamy, Narayanan; Garfinkel, Sarah N; Page, Lionel; Hardy, Ben; Critchley, Hugo D; Gurnell, Mark; Coates, John M

2016-09-19

Interoception is the sensing of physiological signals originating inside the body, such as hunger, pain and heart rate. People with greater sensitivity to interoceptive signals, as measured by, for example, tests of heart beat detection, perform better in laboratory studies of risky decision-making. However, there has been little field work to determine if interoceptive sensitivity contributes to success in real-world, high-stakes risk taking. Here, we report on a study in which we quantified heartbeat detection skills in a group of financial traders working on a London trading floor. We found that traders are better able to perceive their own heartbeats than matched controls from the non-trading population. Moreover, the interoceptive ability of traders predicted their relative profitability, and strikingly, how long they survived in the financial markets. Our results suggest that signals from the body - the gut feelings of financial lore - contribute to success in the markets.

The influence of flooring on environmental stressors: a study of three flooring materials in a hospital.

PubMed

Harris, Debra D

2015-01-01

Three flooring materials, terrazzo, rubber, and carpet tile, in patient unit corridors were compared for absorption of sound, comfort, light reflectance, employee perceptions and preferences, and patient satisfaction. Environmental stressors, such as noise and ergonomic factors, effect healthcare workers and patients, contributing to increased fatigue, anxiety and stress, decreased productivity, and patient safety and satisfaction. A longitudinal comparative cohort study comparing three types of flooring assessed sound levels, healthcare worker responses, and patient Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) ratings over 42 weeks. A linear mixed model analysis was conducted to determine significant differences between the means for participant responses and objective sound meter data during all three phases of the study. A significant difference was found for sound levels between flooring type for equivalent continuous sound levels. Carpet tile performed better for sound attenuation by absorption, reducing sound levels 3.14 dBA. Preferences for flooring materials changed over the course of the study. The HCAHPS ratings aligned with the sound meter data showing that patients perceived the noise levels to be lower with carpet tiles, improving patient satisfaction ratings. Perceptions for healthcare staff and patients were aligned with the sound meter data. Carpet tile provides sound absorption that affects sound levels and influences occupant's perceptions of environmental factors that contribute to the quality of the indoor environment. Flooring that provides comfort underfoot, easy cleanability, and sound absorption influence healthcare worker job satisfaction and patient satisfaction with their patient experience. © The Author(s) 2015.

Pre-Operative Pelvic Floor Muscle Training--A Review.

PubMed

Nahon, Irmina; Martin, Melissa; Adams, Roger

2014-01-01

The use of pelvic floor muscle training has been well established for the management of post-prostatectomy incontinence. In recent years, it has been hypothesized that because the severity and period of incontinence are not predictable pre-operatively, it makes sense to teach all men the new motor skill of correct pelvic floor muscle activation before surgery. This review is based on literature found through computerized and manual searches on available databases. Included were any studies that looked at the effect of adding pelvic floor muscle training pre-operatively and comparing them to the effect of not having pre-operative pelvic floor muscle exercises. Pre-operative pelvic floor muscle training was found to be effective in reducing the time to continence as well as the severity of incontinence in only four studies. Adding biofeedback or electrical stimulation was not found to change the outcomes.

Pregnancy and childbirth: the effects on pelvic floor muscles.

PubMed

Herbert, Julia

This article examines the risks of damage to the pelvic floor that are associated with pregnancy and delivery. It will aim to dispel some myths about pelvic floor exercises and pregnancy and will look at the latest recommendations about pelvic floor muscle exercise.

Deflections of Uniformly Loaded Floors. A Beam-Spring Analog.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-01

joist floor systems have long been analyzed and Recently, the FEAFLO program was used to predict the designed by assuming that the joists act as...simple beams in behavior of floors constructed with joists whose properties carrying the design load. This simple method neglects many were determined in...uniform joist properties.) Designated N-3 for the floor with ’. nailed sheathing and G-3 for the floor with the sheathing 02 attached by means of a rigid

Polygons on Crater Floor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

MGS MOC Release No. MOC2-357, 11 May 2003

This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) picture shows a pattern of polygons on the floor of a northern plains impact crater. These landforms are common on crater floors at high latitudes on Mars. Similar polygons occur in the arctic and antarctic regions of Earth, where they indicate the presence and freeze-thaw cycling of ground ice. Whether the polygons on Mars also indicate water ice in the ground is uncertain. The image is located in a crater at 64.8oN, 292.7oW. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the lower left.

Uncertainty Analysis of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Martha C.; Jones, Michael G.; Watson, Willie R.

2012-01-01

This paper outlines a methodology to identify the measurement uncertainty of NASA Langley s Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) over its operating range, and to identify the parameters that most significantly contribute to the acoustic impedance prediction. Two acoustic liners are used for this study. The first is a single-layer, perforate-over-honeycomb liner that is nonlinear with respect to sound pressure level. The second consists of a wire-mesh facesheet and a honeycomb core, and is linear with respect to sound pressure level. These liners allow for evaluation of the effects of measurement uncertainty on impedances educed with linear and nonlinear liners. In general, the measurement uncertainty is observed to be larger for the nonlinear liners, with the largest uncertainty occurring near anti-resonance. A sensitivity analysis of the aerodynamic parameters (Mach number, static temperature, and static pressure) used in the impedance eduction process is also conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach. This sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the impedance eduction process is virtually insensitive to each of these parameters.

A sensitivity study of s-process: the impact of uncertainties from nuclear reaction rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinyoles, N.; Serenelli, A.

2016-01-01

The slow neutron capture process (s-process) is responsible for the production of about half the elements beyond the Fe-peak. The production sites and the conditions under which the different components of s-process occur are relatively well established. A detailed quantitative understanding of s-process nucleosynthesis may yield light in physical processes, e.g. convection and mixing, taking place in the production sites. For this, it is important that the impact of uncertainties in the nuclear physics is well understood. In this work we perform a study of the sensitivity of s-process nucleosynthesis, with particular emphasis in the main component, on the nuclear reaction rates. Our aims are: to quantify the current uncertainties in the production factors of s-process elements originating from nuclear physics and, to identify key nuclear reactions that require more precise experimental determinations. In this work we studied two different production sites in which s-process occurs with very different neutron exposures: 1) a low-mass extremely metal-poor star during the He-core flash (nn reaching up to values of ∼ 1014cm-3); 2) the TP-AGB phase of a M⊙, Z=0.01 model, the typical site of the main s-process component (nn up to 108 — 109cm-3). In the first case, the main variation in the production of s-process elements comes from the neutron poisons and with relative variations around 30%-50%. In the second, the neutron poison are not as important because of the higher metallicity of the star that actually acts as a seed and therefore, the final error of the abundances are much lower around 10%-25%.

17 CFR 240.11a-1 - Regulation of floor trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Regulation of floor trading... Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Adoption of Floor Trading Regulation (rule 11a-1) § 240.11a-1 Regulation of floor trading. (a) No member of a national securities exchange, while on the floor of such exchange...

17 CFR 240.11a-1 - Regulation of floor trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Regulation of floor trading... Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Adoption of Floor Trading Regulation (rule 11a-1) § 240.11a-1 Regulation of floor trading. (a) No member of a national securities exchange, while on the floor of such exchange...

17 CFR 240.11a-1 - Regulation of floor trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Regulation of floor trading... Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Adoption of Floor Trading Regulation (rule 11a-1) § 240.11a-1 Regulation of floor trading. (a) No member of a national securities exchange, while on the floor of such exchange...

17 CFR 240.11a-1 - Regulation of floor trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Regulation of floor trading... Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Adoption of Floor Trading Regulation (rule 11a-1) § 240.11a-1 Regulation of floor trading. (a) No member of a national securities exchange, while on the floor of such exchange...

17 CFR 240.11a-1 - Regulation of floor trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Regulation of floor trading... Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Adoption of Floor Trading Regulation (rule 11a-1) § 240.11a-1 Regulation of floor trading. (a) No member of a national securities exchange, while on the floor of such exchange...

Physical distribution of oak strip flooring 1969

Treesearch

William C. Miller; William C. Miller

1971-01-01

As an aid to the marketing of oak strip flooring, a study was made of the distribution process for this product, from manufacture to consumer-where the flooring came from, where it went, how much was shipped, and who handled it.

Comparison of changes in the mobility of the pelvic floor muscle on during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver, maximal expiration, and pelvic floor muscle maximal contraction

PubMed Central

Jung, Halim; Jung, Sangwoo; Joo, Sunghee; Song, Changho

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to compare changes in the mobility of the pelvic floor muscle during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver, maximal expiration, and pelvic floor muscle maximal contraction. [Subjects] Thirty healthy adults participated in this study (15 men and 15 women). [Methods] All participants performed a bridge exercise and abdominal curl-up during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver, maximal expiration, and pelvic floor muscle maximal contraction. Pelvic floor mobility was evaluated as the distance from the bladder base using ultrasound. [Results] According to exercise method, bridge exercise and abdominal curl-ups led to significantly different pelvic floor mobility. The pelvic floor muscle was elevated during the abdominal drawing-in maneuver and descended during maximal expiration. Finally, pelvic floor muscle mobility was greater during abdominal curl-up than during the bridge exercise. [Conclusion] According to these results, the abdominal drawing-in maneuver induced pelvic floor muscle contraction, and pelvic floor muscle contraction was greater during the abdominal curl-up than during the bridge exercise. PMID:27065532

36 CFR § 1192.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... VEHICLES Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 1192.79 Floors, steps and thresholds. (a) Floor surfaces on... accommodated shall be slip-resistant. (b) All thresholds and step edges shall have a band of color(s) running... floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

Using Real-time Event Tracking Sensitivity Analysis to Overcome Sensor Measurement Uncertainties of Geo-Information Management in Drilling Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakoli, S.; Poslad, S.; Fruhwirth, R.; Winter, M.

2012-04-01

This paper introduces an application of a novel EventTracker platform for instantaneous Sensitivity Analysis (SA) of large scale real-time geo-information. Earth disaster management systems demand high quality information to aid a quick and timely response to their evolving environments. The idea behind the proposed EventTracker platform is the assumption that modern information management systems are able to capture data in real-time and have the technological flexibility to adjust their services to work with specific sources of data/information. However, to assure this adaptation in real time, the online data should be collected, interpreted, and translated into corrective actions in a concise and timely manner. This can hardly be handled by existing sensitivity analysis methods because they rely on historical data and lazy processing algorithms. In event-driven systems, the effect of system inputs on its state is of value, as events could cause this state to change. This 'event triggering' situation underpins the logic of the proposed approach. Event tracking sensitivity analysis method describes the system variables and states as a collection of events. The higher the occurrence of an input variable during the trigger of event, the greater its potential impact will be on the final analysis of the system state. Experiments were designed to compare the proposed event tracking sensitivity analysis with existing Entropy-based sensitivity analysis methods. The results have shown a 10% improvement in a computational efficiency with no compromise for accuracy. It has also shown that the computational time to perform the sensitivity analysis is 0.5% of the time required compared to using the Entropy-based method. The proposed method has been applied to real world data in the context of preventing emerging crises at drilling rigs. One of the major purposes of such rigs is to drill boreholes to explore oil or gas reservoirs with the final scope of recovering the content

Improving the cleaning procedure to make kitchen floors less slippery.

PubMed

Quirion, F; Poirier, P; Lehane, P

2008-12-01

This investigation shows that, in most cases, the floor cleaning procedure of typical restaurants could be improved, resulting in a better cleaning efficiency and a better floor friction. This simple approach could help reduce slips and falls in the workplace. Food safety officers visited ten European style restaurants in the London Borough of Bromley (UK) to identify their floor cleaning procedure in terms of the cleaning method, the concentration and type of floor cleaner and the temperature of the wash water. For all 10 restaurants visited, the cleaning method was damp mopping. Degreasers were used in three sites while neutral floor cleaners were used in seven sites. Typically, the degreasers were over diluted and the neutrals were overdosed. The wash water temperature ranged from 10 to 72 degrees C. The on-site cleaning procedures were repeated in the laboratory for the removal of olive oil from new and sealed quarry tiles, fouled and worn quarry tiles and new porcelain tiles. It is found that in 24 out of 30 cases, cleaning efficiency can be improved by simple changes in the floor cleaning procedure and that these changes result in a significant improvement of the floor friction. The nature of the improved floor cleaning procedure depends on the flooring type. New and properly sealed flooring tiles can be cleaned using damp mopping with a degreaser diluted as recommended by the manufacturer in warm or hot water (24 to 50 degrees C). But as the tiles become worn and fouled, a more aggressive floor cleaning is required such as two-step mopping with a degreaser diluted as recommended by the manufacturer in warm water (24 degrees C).

Nondestructive structural evaluation of wood floor systems with a vibration technique.

Treesearch

Xiping Wang; Robert J. Ross; Lawrence Andrew Soltis

2002-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine if transverse vibration methods could be used to effectively assess the structural integrity of wood floors as component systems. A total of 10 wood floor systems, including 3 laboratory-built floor sections and 7 in-place floors in historic buildings, were tested. A forced vibration method was applied to the floor systems...

Intonation and Gesture as Bootstrapping Devices in Speaker Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hübscher, Iris; Esteve-Gibert, Núria; Igualada, Alfonso; Prieto, Pilar

2017-01-01

This study investigates 3- to 5-year-old children's sensitivity to lexical, intonational and gestural information in the comprehension of speaker uncertainty. Most previous studies on children's understanding of speaker certainty and uncertainty across languages have focused on the comprehension of lexical markers, and little is known about the…

Uncertainty of High Intensity Therapeutic Ultrasound (HITU) Field Characterization with Hydrophones: Effects of Nonlinearity, Spatial Averaging, and Complex Sensitivity

PubMed Central

Liu, Yunbo; Wear, Keith A.; Harris, Gerald R.

2017-01-01

Reliable acoustic characterization is fundamental for patient safety and clinical efficacy during high intensity therapeutic ultrasound (HITU) treatment. Technical challenges, such as measurement uncertainty and signal analysis still exist for HITU exposimetry using ultrasound hydrophones. In this work, four hydrophones were compared for pressure measurement: a robust needle hydrophone, a small PVDF capsule hydrophone and two different fiber-optic hydrophones. The focal waveform and beam distribution of a single element HITU transducer (1.05 MHz and 3.3 MHz) were evaluated. Complex deconvolution between the hydrophone voltage signal and frequency-dependent complex sensitivity was performed to obtain pressure waveform. Compressional pressure, rarefactional pressure, and focal beam distribution were compared up to 10.6/−6.0 MPa (p+ and p−) (1.05 MHz) and 20.65/−7.20 MPa (3.3 MHz). In particular, the effects of spatial averaging, local nonlinear distortion, complex deconvolution and hydrophone damage thresholds were investigated. This study showed an uncertainty of no better than 10–15% on hydrophone-based HITU pressure characterization. PMID:28735734

Sensitivity of Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss to Uncertainties in Chemical Reaction Kinetics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. Randolph; Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.

2008-01-01

Several recent observational and laboratory studies of processes involved in polar stratospheric ozone loss have prompted a reexamination of aspect of out understanding for this key indicator of global change. To a large extent, our confidence in understanding and projecting changes in polar and global ozone is based on our ability to to simulate these process in numerical models of chemistry and transport. These models depend on laboratory-measured kinetic reaction rates and photlysis cross section to simulate molecular interactions. In this study we use a simple box-model scenario for Antarctic ozone to estimate the uncertainty in loss attributable to known reaction kinetic uncertainties. Following the method of earlier work, rates and uncertainties from the latest laboratory evaluation are applied in random combinations. We determine the key reaction and rates contributing the largest potential errors and compare the results to observations to evaluate which combinations are consistent with atmospheric data. Implications for our theoretical and practical understanding of polar ozone loss will be assessed.

Piezoelectric energy harvester under parquet floor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischur, E.; Schwesinger, N.

2011-03-01

The design, fabrication and testing of piezoelectric energy harvesting modules for floors is described. These modules are used beneath a parquet floor to harvest the energy of people walking over it. The harvesting modules consist of monoaxial stretched PVDF-foils. Multilayer modules are built up as roller-type capacitors. The fabrication process of the harvesting modules is simple and very suitable for mass production. Due to the use of organic polymers, the modules are characterized by a great flexibility and the possibility to create them in almost any geometrical size. The energy yield was determined depending on the dynamic loading force, the thickness of piezoelectric active material, the size of the piezoelectric modules, their alignment in the walking direction and their position on the floor. An increase of the energy yield at higher loading forces and higher thicknesses of the modules was observed. It was possible to generate up to 2.1mWs of electric energy with dynamic loads of 70kg using a specific module design. Furthermore a test floor was assembled to determine the influence of the size, alignment and position of the modules on the energy yield.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON UNCERTAINTY, SENSITIVITY, AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING. EPA/600/R-04/117, NUREG/CP-0187, ERDC SR-04-2.

EPA Science Inventory

An International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling was held August 1921, 2003, at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Headquarters in Rockville, Maryland, USA. The workshop was organized and convened by the Fe...

Female Pelvic Floor Biomechanics: Bridging the Gap

PubMed Central

Easley, Deanna C.; Abramowitch, Steven D.; Moalli, Pamela A.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review The pelvic floor is a complex assembly of connective tissues and striated muscle that simultaneously counteract gravitational forces, inertial forces, and intraabdominal pressures while maintaining the position of the pelvic organs. In 30% of women, injury or failure of the pelvic floor results in pelvic organ prolapse (POP). Surgical treatments have high recurrence rates, due, in part, to a limited understanding of physiologic loading conditions. It is critical to apply biomechanics to help elucidate how altered loading conditions of the pelvis contribute to the development of pelvic organ prolapse and to define surgeries to restore normal support. Recent findings Evidence suggests the ewe is a potential animal model for studying vaginal properties and that uterosacral and cardinal ligaments experience significant creep, which may be affecting surgical outcomes. A new method of measuring ligament displacements in vivo was developed, and finite element models that simulate urethral support, pelvic floor dynamics, and the impact of episiotomies on the pelvic floor were studied. Summary This review highlights some contributions over the past year, including mechanical testing and the creation of models, which are used to understand pelvic floor changes with loading, and the impact of surgical procedures, to illustrate how biomechanics is being utilized. PMID:28267057

MODFLOW 2000 Head Uncertainty, a First-Order Second Moment Method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glasgow, H.S.; Fortney, M.D.; Lee, J.; Graettinger, A.J.; Reeves, H.W.

2003-01-01

A computationally efficient method to estimate the variance and covariance in piezometric head results computed through MODFLOW 2000 using a first-order second moment (FOSM) approach is presented. This methodology employs a first-order Taylor series expansion to combine model sensitivity with uncertainty in geologic data. MODFLOW 2000 is used to calculate both the ground water head and the sensitivity of head to changes in input data. From a limited number of samples, geologic data are extrapolated and their associated uncertainties are computed through a conditional probability calculation. Combining the spatially related sensitivity and input uncertainty produces the variance-covariance matrix, the diagonal of which is used to yield the standard deviation in MODFLOW 2000 head. The variance in piezometric head can be used for calibrating the model, estimating confidence intervals, directing exploration, and evaluating the reliability of a design. A case study illustrates the approach, where aquifer transmissivity is the spatially related uncertain geologic input data. The FOSM methodology is shown to be applicable for calculating output uncertainty for (1) spatially related input and output data, and (2) multiple input parameters (transmissivity and recharge).

Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, J.; McNelis, D.; Yim, M.S.

2013-07-01

This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for themore » discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.« less

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Hark, Frank

2016-01-01

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk, and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results, and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods, such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty, are rendered obsolete, since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper describes how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Hark, Frank; Al Hassan, Mohammad

2016-01-01

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karstensen, J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.

2014-09-01

Several studies have connected emissions of greenhouse gases to economic and trade data to quantify the causal chain from consumption to emissions and climate change. These studies usually combine data and models originating from different sources, making it difficult to estimate uncertainties in the end results. We estimate uncertainties in economic data, multi-pollutant emission statistics and metric parameters, and use Monte Carlo analysis to quantify contributions to uncertainty and to determine how uncertainty propagates to estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions for the year 2007. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants included, the metric and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are largely dominated by the climate sensitivity and the parameters associated with the warming effects of CO2. The economic data have a relatively small impact on uncertainty at the global and national level, while much higher uncertainties are found at the sectoral level. Our results suggest that consumption-based national emissions are not significantly more uncertain than the corresponding production based emissions, since the largest uncertainties are due to metric and emissions which affect both perspectives equally. The two perspectives exhibit different sectoral uncertainties, due to changes of pollutant compositions. We find global sectoral consumption uncertainties in the range of ±9-±27% using the global temperature potential with a 50 year time horizon, with metric uncertainties dominating. National level uncertainties are similar in both perspectives due to the dominance of CO2 over other pollutants. The consumption emissions of the top 10 emitting regions have a broad uncertainty range of ±9-±25%, with metric and emissions uncertainties contributing similarly. The Absolute global

Uncertainty Quantification in Aeroelasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beran, Philip; Stanford, Bret; Schrock, Christopher

2017-01-01

Physical interactions between a fluid and structure, potentially manifested as self-sustained or divergent oscillations, can be sensitive to many parameters whose values are uncertain. Of interest here are aircraft aeroelastic interactions, which must be accounted for in aircraft certification and design. Deterministic prediction of these aeroelastic behaviors can be difficult owing to physical and computational complexity. New challenges are introduced when physical parameters and elements of the modeling process are uncertain. By viewing aeroelasticity through a nondeterministic prism, where key quantities are assumed stochastic, one may gain insights into how to reduce system uncertainty, increase system robustness, and maintain aeroelastic safety. This article reviews uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity using traditional analytical techniques not reliant on computational fluid dynamics; compares and contrasts this work with emerging methods based on computational fluid dynamics, which target richer physics; and reviews the state of the art in aeroelastic optimization under uncertainty. Barriers to continued progress, for example, the so-called curse of dimensionality, are discussed.

Uncertainty Quantification of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CCSM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.; Tannahill, J.; Klein, R.

2013-12-01

Uncertainty in the global mean equilibrium surface warming due to doubled atmospheric CO2, as computed by a "slab ocean" configuration of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), is quantified using 1,039 perturbed-input-parameter simulations. The slab ocean configuration reduces the model's e-folding time when approaching an equilibrium state to ~5 years. This time is much less than for the full ocean configuration, consistent with the shallow depth of the upper well-mixed layer of the ocean represented by the "slab." Adoption of the slab ocean configuration requires the assumption of preset values for the convergence of ocean heat transport beneath the upper well-mixed layer. A standard procedure for choosing these values maximizes agreement with the full ocean version's simulation of the present-day climate when input parameters assume their default values. For each new set of input parameter values, we computed the change in ocean heat transport implied by a "Phase 1" model run in which sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations were set equal to present-day values. The resulting total ocean heat transport (= standard value + change implied by Phase 1 run) was then input into "Phase 2" slab ocean runs with varying values of atmospheric CO2. Our uncertainty estimate is based on Latin Hypercube sampling over expert-provided uncertainty ranges of N = 36 adjustable parameters in the atmosphere (CAM4) and sea ice (CICE4) components of CCSM4. Two-dimensional projections of our sampling distribution for the N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of input parameters indicate full coverage of the N-dimensional parameter space, including edges. We used a machine learning-based support vector regression (SVR) statistical model to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of equilibrium warming. This fitting procedure produces a PDF that is qualitatively consistent with the raw histogram of our CCSM4 results. Most of the values from the SVR statistical model

Assessment of the effect of pelvic floor exercises on pelvic floor muscle strength using ultrasonography in patients with urinary incontinence: a prospective randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

Tosun, Ozge Celiker; Solmaz, Ulas; Ekin, Atalay; Tosun, Gokhan; Gezer, Cenk; Ergenoglu, Ahmet Mete; Yeniel, Ahmet Ozgur; Mat, Emre; Malkoc, Mehtap; Askar, Niyazi

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the effect of pelvic floor exercises on pelvic floor muscle strength could be detected via ultrasonography in patients with urinary incontinence. [Subjects and Methods] Of 282 incontinent patients, 116 participated in the study and were randomly divided into a pelvic floor muscle training (n=65) group or control group (n=51). The pelvic floor muscle training group was given pelvic floor exercise training for 12 weeks. Both groups were evaluated at the beginning of the study and after 12 weeks. Abdominal ultrasonography measurements in transverse and longitudinal planes, the PERFECT scheme, perineometric evaluation, the stop test, the stress test, and the pad test were used to assess pelvic floor muscle strength in all cases. [Results] After training, the PERFECT, perineometry and transabdominal ultrasonography measurements were found to be significantly improved, and the stop test and pad test results were significantly decreased in the pelvic floor muscle training group, whereas no difference was observed in the control group. There was a positive correlation between the PERFECT force measurement scale and ultrasonography force measurement scale before and after the intervention in the control and pelvic floor muscle training groups (r=0.632 and r=0.642, respectively). [Conclusion] Ultrasonography can be used as a noninvasive method to identify the change in pelvic floor muscle strength with exercise training. PMID:27065519

Modern Theories of Pelvic Floor Support : A Topical Review of Modern Studies on Structural and Functional Pelvic Floor Support from Medical Imaging, Computational Modeling, and Electromyographic Perspectives.

PubMed

Peng, Yun; Miller, Brandi D; Boone, Timothy B; Zhang, Yingchun

2018-02-12

Weakened pelvic floor support is believed to be the main cause of various pelvic floor disorders. Modern theories of pelvic floor support stress on the structural and functional integrity of multiple structures and their interplay to maintain normal pelvic floor functions. Connective tissues provide passive pelvic floor support while pelvic floor muscles provide active support through voluntary contraction. Advanced modern medical technologies allow us to comprehensively and thoroughly evaluate the interaction of supporting structures and assess both active and passive support functions. The pathophysiology of various pelvic floor disorders associated with pelvic floor weakness is now under scrutiny from the combination of (1) morphological, (2) dynamic (through computational modeling), and (3) neurophysiological perspectives. This topical review aims to update newly emerged studies assessing pelvic floor support function among these three categories. A literature search was performed with emphasis on (1) medical imaging studies that assess pelvic floor muscle architecture, (2) subject-specific computational modeling studies that address new topics such as modeling muscle contractions, and (3) pelvic floor neurophysiology studies that report novel devices or findings such as high-density surface electromyography techniques. We found that recent computational modeling studies are featured with more realistic soft tissue constitutive models (e.g., active muscle contraction) as well as an increasing interest in simulating surgical interventions (e.g., artificial sphincter). Diffusion tensor imaging provides a useful non-invasive tool to characterize pelvic floor muscles at the microstructural level, which can be potentially used to improve the accuracy of the simulation of muscle contraction. Studies using high-density surface electromyography anal and vaginal probes on large patient cohorts have been recently reported. Influences of vaginal delivery on the

Management of disorders of the posterior pelvic floor.

PubMed Central

Berman, Loren; Aversa, John; Abir, Farshad; Longo, Walter E.

2005-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Constipation is a relatively common problem affecting 15 percent of adults in the Western world, and over half of these cases are related to pelvic floor disorders. This article reviews the clinical presentation and diagnostic approach to posterior pelvic floor disorders, including how to image and treat them. METHODS: A Pubmed search using keywords "rectal prolapse," "rectocele," "perineal hernia," and "anismus" was performed, and bibliographies of the revealed articles were cross-referenced to obtain a representative cross-section of the literature, both investigational studies and reviews, that are currently available on posterior pelvic floor disorders. DISCUSSION: Pelvic floor disorders can occur with or without concomitant physical anatomical defects, and there are a number of imaging modalities available to detect such abnormalities in order to decide on the appropriate course of treatment. Depending on the nature of the disorder, operative or non-operative therapy may be indicated. CONCLUSION: Correctly diagnosing pelvic floor disorders can be complex and challenging, and the various imaging modalities as well as clinical history and exam must be considered together in order to arrive at a diagnosis. PMID:16720016

Comparison, association, and risk assessment of phthalates in floor dust at different indoor environments in Delaware, USA.

PubMed

Bi, Xiaolong; Yuan, Shoujun; Pan, Xiaojun; Winstead, Cherese; Wang, Qiquan

2015-01-01

This study aimed to compare and assess phthalate contamination in various indoor environments. In this study, 44 floor dust samples from different indoor environments in Delaware, USA were collected and analyzed for 14 phthalates using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Phthalates were detected in all dust samples with the total concentration ranging from 84 to 7117 mg kg(-1). DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate), BzBP (benzylbutyl phthalate), DBP (dibutyl phthalate), and DiBP (di-isobutyl phthalate) were both the most frequently and abundantly detected phthalates. The average concentration of total phthalates in dust from offices, student dorms, gyms, stores, and daycare centers was found to be significantly or insignificantly (P = 0.05) higher than that in dust from houses and apartments. Plastic flooring materials and the application of floor care chemical products were positively associated with total phthalate concentration in floor dust. Toxicological risk assessment indicated that an investigated daycare center in this study was the only indoor environment that may cause the intake amount of DEHP of infants, toddlers, and children via dust ingestion to exceed the reference dose established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Regular monitoring on phthalate contamination in sensitive indoor environments is recommended.

Short communication: Flooring preferences of dairy cows at calving.

PubMed

Campler, M; Munksgaard, L; Jensen, M B; Weary, D M; von Keyserlingk, M A G

2014-02-01

The present study investigated the flooring preference during the 30 h before parturition in Holstein dairy cows housed individually in a maternity pen. Seventeen multiparous cows were moved, on average, 2 d before expected calving date into an individual maternity pen with 3 different flooring surfaces: 10 cm of sand, pebble-top rubber mats, or concrete flooring, each covered with 15 cm of straw. Calving location, lying time, and total time and number of lying bouts on each of the floor types were recorded during 2 periods: precalving (24 to 29 h before calving) and at calving (0 to 5h before calving). Ten cows calved on sand, 6 on concrete, and 1 on the rubber mat. Lying bouts increased during the hours closest to calving, regardless of flooring. The number of lying bouts did not differ between flooring types precalving but cows had more lying bouts on sand and concrete compared with rubber at calving. Cows spent more time lying down on sand and concrete compared with rubber precalving, but lying times did not differ between treatments at calving. Cows that calved on sand spent more time lying on sand at calving compared with the other 2 flooring types. Cows that calved on concrete did not show a flooring preference at calving. These results indicate that rubber mats are the least preferred by dairy cows in the maternity pens, even when covered with a deep layer of straw. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

41. Ground level photograph of two floors of skeleton complete ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

41. Ground level photograph of two floors of skeleton complete with 3rd and 4th floors being started,upper floors of county bldg visible - Chicago City Hall, 121 North LaSalle Street, Chicago, Cook County, IL

Uncertainty in BRCA1 cancer susceptibility testing.

PubMed

Baty, Bonnie J; Dudley, William N; Musters, Adrian; Kinney, Anita Y

2006-11-15

This study investigated uncertainty in individuals undergoing genetic counseling/testing for breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility. Sixty-three individuals from a single kindred with a known BRCA1 mutation rated uncertainty about 12 items on a five-point Likert scale before and 1 month after genetic counseling/testing. Factor analysis identified a five-item total uncertainty scale that was sensitive to changes before and after testing. The items in the scale were related to uncertainty about obtaining health care, positive changes after testing, and coping well with results. The majority of participants (76%) rated reducing uncertainty as an important reason for genetic testing. The importance of reducing uncertainty was stable across time and unrelated to anxiety or demographics. Yet, at baseline, total uncertainty was low and decreased after genetic counseling/testing (P = 0.004). Analysis of individual items showed that after genetic counseling/testing, there was less uncertainty about the participant detecting cancer early (P = 0.005) and coping well with their result (P < 0.001). Our findings support the importance to clients of genetic counseling/testing as a means of reducing uncertainty. Testing may help clients to reduce the uncertainty about items they can control, and it may be important to differentiate the sources of uncertainty that are more or less controllable. Genetic counselors can help clients by providing anticipatory guidance about the role of uncertainty in genetic testing. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

Effects of roughness and compressibility of flooring on cow locomotion.

PubMed

Rushen, J; de Passillé, A M

2006-08-01

We examined the effects of roughness and degree of compressibility of flooring on the locomotion of dairy cows. We observed 16 cows walking down specially constructed walkways with materials that differed in surface roughness and degree of compressibility. Use of a commercially available soft rubber flooring material decreased slipping, number of strides, and time to traverse the corridor. These effects were most apparent at difficult sections of the corridor, such as at the start, at a right-angle turn, and across a gutter. Covering the walkway with a thin layer of slurry increased frequency of slipping, number of strides, and time taken to traverse the walkway. Effects of adding slurry were not overcome by increasing surface roughness or compressibility. Placing more compressible materials under a slip-resistant material reduced the time and number of steps needed to traverse the corridor but did not reduce slips, and the effects on cow locomotion varied nonlinearly with the degree of compressibility of the floor. Use of commercially available rubber floors improved cow locomotion compared with concrete floors. However, standard engineering measures of the floor properties may not predict effects of the floor on cow behavior well. Increasing compressibility of the flooring on which cows walk, independently of the roughness of the surface, can improve cow locomotion.

Role of chronic exercise on pelvic floor support and function

PubMed Central

Shaw, Janet M.; Nygaard, Ingrid E.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review To summarize recent literature about the potential role of chronic exercise on pelvic floor support and function. Recent findings Stress urinary incontinence is common during physical activity. Scant evidence suggests a dose-response association between higher volumes of exercise and urinary incontinence. Athletes do not appear to have greater pelvic floor muscle strength or worse pelvic floor support compared to non-athletes. Pelvic floor muscle electromyographic activity increases substantially as running speeds increase. Summary Based on the current literature, no strong conclusions can be drawn about whether chronic exercise exerts a positive or negative influence on pelvic floor support and function. Adopting longitudinal research methodology that prospectively monitors exercise exposure and subsequent changes in pelvic floor support and function would help to reduce selection bias associated with cross sectional studies on groups of athletes. PMID:28212118

Using the Newly Developed Floor-Sitting Movement Analysis Proforma to Study the Effect of Age and Activity on Floor-Sitting in Indian Adults.

PubMed

Nagrajan, Anjana; D'Souza, Sebestina A

2017-03-01

Floor-sitting is culturally relevant to the Indian context. The present study aimed to examine the effect of age and activity on the movement patterns used and time taken to perform floor-sitting in Indian adults. Video-recordings of 30 young (23.30 ± 2.53 years) and 30 older (69.67 ± 6.45 years) adults performing floor-sitting without and with an activity (simulated feeding) were analyzed using the Floor-sitting Movement Analysis Proforma (FMAP) developed for the study. For inter-rater reliability of the FMAP, two raters analyzed the performance of a random sample of 20 participants. An almost perfect inter-rater agreeability (κ ≥ .8) was obtained for the FMAP. Cross-legged sitting was the most preferred (95%) floor-sitting position. Older adults used more number of movement components, asymmetrical patterns, more support, and more time (p < .001) as compared to the young adults. The activity facilitated the use of optimal movement strategies in young and older adults. The activity significantly increased time taken to rise from floor-sitting (p = .004). The study establishes the influence of age and activity on performance of floor-sitting. Older adults use lower developmental movement patterns that may be a "normal" adaptation to age-related sensorimotor changes. Retraining of floor-sitting is a "culturally" desired goal among Indian adults and should involve the practice of age-appropriate movement patterns in the context of meaningful activities.

21. NONSLOW BURN CONSTRUCTION DETAIL, SECOND FLOOR OF 1816 MILL ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

21. NON-SLOW BURN CONSTRUCTION DETAIL, SECOND FLOOR OF 1816 MILL LOOKING WEST-SOUTHWEST; MOST FLOORS IN THE 1814 AND 1816 MILLS HAD ORIGINAL FLOORING REPLACED WITH SLOW BURN CONSTRUCTION. - Boston Manufacturing Company, 144-190 Moody Street, Waltham, Middlesex County, MA

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karstensen, J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.

2015-05-01

Several studies have connected emissions of greenhouse gases to economic and trade data to quantify the causal chain from consumption to emissions and climate change. These studies usually combine data and models originating from different sources, making it difficult to estimate uncertainties along the entire causal chain. We estimate uncertainties in economic data, multi-pollutant emission statistics, and metric parameters, and use Monte Carlo analysis to quantify contributions to uncertainty and to determine how uncertainty propagates to estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions for the year 2007. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants included, the metric and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are largely dominated by the climate sensitivity and the parameters associated with the warming effects of CO2. Based on our assumptions, which exclude correlations in the economic data, the uncertainty in the economic data appears to have a relatively small impact on uncertainty at the national level in comparison to emissions and metric uncertainty. Much higher uncertainties are found at the sectoral level. Our results suggest that consumption-based national emissions are not significantly more uncertain than the corresponding production-based emissions since the largest uncertainties are due to metric and emissions which affect both perspectives equally. The two perspectives exhibit different sectoral uncertainties, due to changes of pollutant compositions. We find global sectoral consumption uncertainties in the range of ±10 to ±27 % using the Global Temperature Potential with a 50-year time horizon, with metric uncertainties dominating. National-level uncertainties are similar in both perspectives due to the dominance of CO2 over other pollutants. The consumption emissions of the top

115. Stage Level floor structure. Detail of the ends of ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

115. Stage Level floor structure. Detail of the ends of three movable stage floor sections. An inclined steel angle track attached to the web of the floor beam allows the sections to roll under the fixed floor. The upper section of the inclined track is hinged so it can be moved upward by a cam mechanism to raise the end of the movable section level with the stage floor. A similar mechanism was used to open and close the floor sections for the star lifts (see sheet 4 of 9, note 6; sheet 8 of 9, details 5, 6A and 6B; sheet 6 of 9, notes 2A, 2B, and 3; and photo IL-1007-120). The pulley, and tongue extending out from the end of the movable section, were used to move the sections back and forth. - Auditorium Building, 430 South Michigan Avenue, Chicago, Cook County, IL

The effect of model uncertainty on cooperation in sensorimotor interactions

PubMed Central

Grau-Moya, J.; Hez, E.; Pezzulo, G.; Braun, D. A.

2013-01-01

Decision-makers have been shown to rely on probabilistic models for perception and action. However, these models can be incorrect or partially wrong in which case the decision-maker has to cope with model uncertainty. Model uncertainty has recently also been shown to be an important determinant of sensorimotor behaviour in humans that can lead to risk-sensitive deviations from Bayes optimal behaviour towards worst-case or best-case outcomes. Here, we investigate the effect of model uncertainty on cooperation in sensorimotor interactions similar to the stag-hunt game, where players develop models about the other player and decide between a pay-off-dominant cooperative solution and a risk-dominant, non-cooperative solution. In simulations, we show that players who allow for optimistic deviations from their opponent model are much more likely to converge to cooperative outcomes. We also implemented this agent model in a virtual reality environment, and let human subjects play against a virtual player. In this game, subjects' pay-offs were experienced as forces opposing their movements. During the experiment, we manipulated the risk sensitivity of the computer player and observed human responses. We found not only that humans adaptively changed their level of cooperation depending on the risk sensitivity of the computer player but also that their initial play exhibited characteristic risk-sensitive biases. Our results suggest that model uncertainty is an important determinant of cooperation in two-player sensorimotor interactions. PMID:23945266

Uncertainty for Part Density Determination: An Update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valdez, Mario Orlando

2016-12-14

Accurate and precise density measurements by hydrostatic weighing requires the use of an analytical balance, configured with a suspension system, to both measure the weight of a part in water and in air. Additionally, the densities of these liquid media (water and air) must be precisely known for the part density determination. To validate the accuracy and precision of these measurements, uncertainty statements are required. The work in this report is a revision of an original report written more than a decade ago, specifically applying principles and guidelines suggested by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM)more » for determining the part density uncertainty through sensitivity analysis. In this work, updated derivations are provided; an original example is revised with the updated derivations and appendix, provided solely to uncertainty evaluations using Monte Carlo techniques, specifically using the NIST Uncertainty Machine, as a viable alternative method.« less

An education program about pelvic floor muscles improved women's knowledge but not pelvic floor muscle function, urinary incontinence or sexual function: a randomised trial.

PubMed

de Andrade, Roberta Leopoldino; Bø, Kari; Antonio, Flavia Ignácio; Driusso, Patricia; Mateus-Vasconcelos, Elaine Cristine Lemes; Ramos, Salvador; Julio, Monica Pitanguy; Ferreira, Cristine Homsi Jorge

2018-04-01

Does an educational program with instructions for performing 'the Knack' improve voluntary contraction of the pelvic floor muscles, reduce reports of urinary incontinence, improve sexual function, and promote women's knowledge of the pelvic floor muscles? Randomised, controlled trial with concealed allocation, intention-to-treat analysis and blinded assessors. Ninety-nine women from the local community. The experimental group (n=50) received one lecture per week for 4 weeks, and instructions for performing 'the Knack'. The control group (n=49) received no intervention. The primary outcome was maximum voluntary contraction of the pelvic floor muscles measured using manometry. Secondary outcomes were: ability to contract the pelvic floor muscles measured using vaginal palpation; severity of urinary incontinence measured by the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Short Form (ICIQ-SF) scored from 0 to 21; self-reported sexual function; and knowledge related to the pelvic floor. Outcomes were measured at baseline and after 4 weeks. The intervention did not significantly improve: maximum voluntary contraction (MD 2.7 cmH 2 O higher in the experimental group, 95% CI -0.5 to 5.9); ability to contract the pelvic floor muscles (RR 2.18, 95% CI 0.49 to 9.65); or self-reported severity of urinary incontinence (MD 1 point greater reduction in the experimental group, 95% CI -3 to 1). Sexual function did not significantly differ between groups, but very few of the women engaged in sexual activity during the study period. The educational program did, however, significantly increase women's knowledge related to the location, functions and dysfunctions of the pelvic floor muscles, and treatment options. Education and teaching women to perform 'the Knack' had no significant effect on voluntary contraction of the pelvic floor muscles, urinary incontinence or sexual function, but it promoted women's knowledge about the pelvic floor. Brazilian Registry of Clinical

13. INTERIOR VIEW, FIRST FLOOR SHOWING THE ELEVATORS FEEDING GRAIN ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

13. INTERIOR VIEW, FIRST FLOOR SHOWING THE ELEVATORS FEEDING GRAIN FROM THE SECOND FLOOR TO THE GRINDING STONES, WITH GRAIN ELEVATORS IN BACKGROUND (NOTE OUTLINE ON THE FLOOR WHERE ROLLER MILLS WERE ORIGINALLY PLACED) - Schech's Mill, Beaver Creek State Park, La Crescent, Houston County, MN

Portable flooring protects finished surfaces, is easily moved

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carmody, R. J.

1964-01-01

To protect curved, finished surface and provide support for workmen, portable flooring has been made from rigid plastic foam blocks, faced with aluminum strips. Held together by nylon webbing, the flooring can be rolled up for easy carrying.

Operational Testing of Floor Cleaning Cloths for Household ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report The objective of this study was to evaluate the Swiffer® Sweeper® floor mop system (SSFMS) as a low-tech method to clean indoor residential floors contaminated with B. anthracis spores (the causative agent of anthrax).

A Converse of a Result about the Floor Function by Hermite

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mortici, Cristinel

2012-01-01

The floor function maps a real number to the largest previous integer. More precisely, floor(x)=[x] is the largest integer not greater than x. The square bracket notation [x] for the floor function was introduced by Gauss in his third proof of quadratic reciprocity in 1808. The floor function is also called the greatest integer or entier (French…

Dance floors as injury risk: analysis and evaluation of acute injuries caused by dance floors in professional dance with regard to preventative aspects.

PubMed

Wanke, Eileen M; Mill, Helmgard; Wanke, Alice; Davenport, Jaqueline; Koch, Franziska; Groneberg, David A

2012-09-01

A dance floor is often the only support of movements in dance. A dance floor surface that shows deficiencies, can result in acute injuries and chronic problems. Although the significance of an adequate dance floor is well known, there is still a lack of differentiated analyses of dance floor-related acute injuries. This study presents data on acute injuries exclusively caused by the dance floor. The data were obtained from standardized work accident reports from consultants (F 1000), documentary accident records from all Berlin theatres, a state ballet school (n=2,281), and case records from the Berlin State Accident Insurance (UKB) covering a period of 17 years. All analyses and descriptive statistics were conducted with Excel 2007 and SPSS 18. Dance floor surfaces were the causative factor in 12.8% of all accidents (n=291, female 183, male 108). Almost two thirds (62.6%) of all accidents in professional dancers happened on stage, and almost half (49.5%) occurred during performances. As for causative factors, 53.1% of the professional dancers (P) and 42.5% of the dance students (S) claimed that the floor had been "too slippery," with "getting stuck" or (tripping) as the second most common problem (P 18.4%, S 11.3%). Of the injured dancers, 41.8% were older than 30 years and can therefore be categorized as experienced. Dance floors play a significant role in the occurrence of acute injuries, even in experienced dancers. Performances on stage seem to be a particular risk. However, injury prevention measures should include all work locations (P) as well as non-dance-specific locations (S).

Complex Volcanism at Oppenheimer U Floor-Fractured Crater

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaddis, L. R.; Bennett, K.; Horgan, B.; McBride, Marie; Stopar, J.; Lawrence, S.; Gustafson, J. O.; Giguere, T.

2017-01-01

Recent remote sensing studies have identified complex volcanism in the floor-fractured crater (FFC) Oppenheimer U, located in the northwest floor of Oppenheimer crater (35.2degS, 166.3degW, 208 km dia., Figure 1) within the "South Pole - Aitken basin" (SPA) region of the lunar far side. Up to 15 sites of pyroclastic volcanism have been identified in the floor of Oppenheimer crater. Studies of Moon Mineralogy Mapper data (M3, 0.4-3 microns, 86 bands, [5]) indicated that the pyroclastic deposits are comprised of mixtures of clinopyroxene and iron-rich glass, with the Oppenheimer U deposit showing variable composition within the FFC and having the most iron-rich volcanic glass thus far identified on the Moon. Here we examine the floor of Oppenheimer U in more detail and show evidence for possible multiple eruptive vents.

Regional-scale yield simulations using crop and climate models: assessing uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and adaptation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, A. J.

2010-12-01

Recent progress in assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on crops using multiple regional-scale simulations of crop and climate (i.e. ensembles) is presented. Simulations for India and China used perturbed responses to elevated carbon dioxide constrained using observations from FACE studies and controlled environments. Simulations with crop parameter sets representing existing and potential future adapted varieties were also carried out. The results for India are compared to sensitivity tests on two other crop models. For China, a parallel approach used socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation. Results for the USA analysed cardinal temperatures under a range of local warming scenarios for 2711 varieties of spring wheat. The results are as follows: 1. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty. The relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes is examined. The observational constraints from FACE and controlled environment studies are shown to be the likely critical factor in maintaining relatively low crop parameter uncertainty. Without these constraints, crop simulation uncertainty in a doubled CO2 environment would likely be greater than uncertainty in simulating climate. However, consensus across crop models in India varied across different biophysical processes. 2. The response of yield to changes in local mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. 3. Implications for adaptation. China. The simulations of spring wheat in China show the relative importance of tolerance to water and heat stress in avoiding future crop failures. The greatest potential for reducing the number of harvests less than one standard deviation below the baseline mean yield value comes from alleviating water stress; the greatest potential for reducing harvests less than two

27 CFR 46.195 - Floor stocks requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 General § 46.195 Floor stocks requirements. (a) Take inventory. The dealer must establish the quantity of articles subject to the floor stocks tax held for sale on April 1, 2009. The dealer may take a physical inventory or may use a record (book) inventory, as specified in...

Pelvic floor dysfunction, and effects of pregnancy and mode of delivery on pelvic floor.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Murat; Yumru, Ayşe Ender; Şahin, Levent

2014-12-01

Pelvic floor dysfunction (PFD), although seems to be simple, is a complex process that develops secondary to multifactorial factors. The incidence of PFD is increasing with increasing life expectancy. PFD is a term that refers to a broad range of clinical scenarios, including lower urinary tract excretory and defecation disorders, such as urinary and anal incontinence, overactive bladder, and pelvic organ prolapse, as well as sexual disorders. It is a financial burden on the health care system and disrupts women's quality of life. Strategies applied to decrease PFD are focused on the course of pregnancy, mode and management of delivery, and pelvic exercise methods. Many studies in the literature define traumatic birth, usage of forceps, length of the second stage of delivery, and sphincter damage as modifiable risk factors for PFD. Maternal age, fetal position, and fetal head circumference are nonmodifiable risk factors. Although numerous studies show that vaginal delivery affects pelvic floor structures and their functions in a negative way, there is not enough scientific evidence to recommend elective cesarean delivery in order to prevent development of PFD. PFD is a heterogeneous pathological condition, and the effects of pregnancy, vaginal delivery, cesarean delivery, and possible risk factors of PFD may be different from each other. Observational studies have identified certain obstetrical exposures as risk factors for pelvic floor disorders. These factors often coexist; therefore, the isolated effects of these variables on the pelvic floor are difficult to study. The routine use of episiotomy for many years in order to prevent PFD is not recommended anymore; episiotomy should be used in selected cases, and the mediolateral procedures should be used if needed. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of impact force attenuation by various combinations of hip protector and flooring material using a simplified fall-impact simulation device.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Tsushima, Eiki; Tsushima, Hitoshi

2013-04-05

Use of hip protectors and compliant flooring has been recommended for preventing hip fracture due to falls. We aimed to identify the factors attenuating forces in falls by comparing and analyzing the impact forces occurring with various combinations of hip protectors and flooring materials. We designed a simplified pendulum device to simulate the impact force at the hip during falling. The impact force was measured on pressure-sensitive recording film under combined conditions of two kinds of hip protector (hard or soft shell) and three kinds of floor material (concrete, wooden, or tatami matting). We then calculated the percentage force attenuation under each test condition compared with the use of a concrete floor and no hip protector. All the tests using tatami matting reduced the impact to below the average fracture threshold of elderly people (3472N). A combination of tatami and soft hip protector provided the best attenuation (72.5%). Multiple regression analyses showed that use of tatami matting and a soft hip protector had the biggest force-attenuation effect. The soft hip protector gave better percentage force attenuation than did the hard one. Use of tatami matting as a flooring material could be an effective strategy for helping prevent hip fractures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

29 CFR 1926.855 - Manual removal of floors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... floor arch, debris and other material shall be removed from such arch and other adjacent floor area... collapse. The open space between planks shall not exceed 16 inches. (c) Safe walkways, not less than 18... cleared of debris and any other unnecessary materials. ...

29 CFR 1926.855 - Manual removal of floors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... floor arch, debris and other material shall be removed from such arch and other adjacent floor area... collapse. The open space between planks shall not exceed 16 inches. (c) Safe walkways, not less than 18... cleared of debris and any other unnecessary materials. ...

29 CFR 1926.855 - Manual removal of floors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... floor arch, debris and other material shall be removed from such arch and other adjacent floor area... collapse. The open space between planks shall not exceed 16 inches. (c) Safe walkways, not less than 18... cleared of debris and any other unnecessary materials. ...

29 CFR 1926.855 - Manual removal of floors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... floor arch, debris and other material shall be removed from such arch and other adjacent floor area... collapse. The open space between planks shall not exceed 16 inches. (c) Safe walkways, not less than 18... cleared of debris and any other unnecessary materials. ...

29 CFR 1926.855 - Manual removal of floors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... floor arch, debris and other material shall be removed from such arch and other adjacent floor area... collapse. The open space between planks shall not exceed 16 inches. (c) Safe walkways, not less than 18... cleared of debris and any other unnecessary materials. ...

SCALE Continuous-Energy Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations

DOE PAGES

Perfetti, Christopher M.; Rearden, Bradley T.; Martin, William R.

2016-02-25

Sensitivity coefficients describe the fractional change in a system response that is induced by changes to system parameters and nuclear data. The Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) code within the SCALE code system makes use of eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients for an extensive number of criticality safety applications, including quantifying the data-induced uncertainty in the eigenvalue of critical systems, assessing the neutronic similarity between different critical systems, and guiding nuclear data adjustment studies. The need to model geometrically complex systems with improved fidelity and the desire to extend TSUNAMI analysis to advanced applications has motivated the developmentmore » of a methodology for calculating sensitivity coefficients in continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo applications. The Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) and Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) eigenvalue sensitivity methods were recently implemented in the CE-KENO framework of the SCALE code system to enable TSUNAMI-3D to perform eigenvalue sensitivity calculations using continuous-energy Monte Carlo methods. This work provides a detailed description of the theory behind the CLUTCH method and describes in detail its implementation. This work explores the improvements in eigenvalue sensitivity coefficient accuracy that can be gained through the use of continuous-energy sensitivity methods and also compares several sensitivity methods in terms of computational efficiency and memory requirements.« less

Role of pelvic floor in lower urinary tract function.

PubMed

Chermansky, Christopher J; Moalli, Pamela A

2016-10-01

The pelvic floor plays an integral part in lower urinary tract storage and evacuation. Normal urine storage necessitates that continence be maintained with normal urethral closure and urethral support. The endopelvic fascia of the anterior vaginal wall, its connections to the arcus tendineous fascia pelvis (ATFP), and the medial portion of the levator ani muscles must remain intact to provide normal urethral support. Thus, normal pelvic floor function is required for urine storage. Normal urine evacuation involves a series of coordinated events, the first of which involves complete relaxation of the external urethral sphincter and levator ani muscles. Acquired dysfunction of these muscles will initially result in sensory urgency and detrusor overactivity; however, with time the acquired voiding dysfunction can result in intermittent urine flow and incomplete bladder emptying, progressing to urinary retention in severe cases. This review will start with a discussion of normal pelvic floor anatomy and function. Next various injuries to the pelvic floor will be reviewed. The dysfunctional pelvic floor will be covered subsequently, with a focus on levator ani spasticity and stress urinary incontinence (SUI). Finally, future research directions of the interaction between the pelvic floor and lower urinary tract function will be discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reducing Floor Impact Vibration and Sound Using a Momentum Exchange Impact Damper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Lovely; Kawachi, Makoto; Matsuhisa, Hiroshi; Utsuno, Hideo

This paper deals with reducing floor impact vibration and sound by using a momentum exchange impact damper. The impact damper consists of a spring and a mass that is contact with the floor. When a falling object collides with the floor, the floor interacts with the damper mass, and the momentum of the falling object is transferred to the damper. In this works a computational model is formulated to simulate dynamic floor vibration induced by impact. The floor vibration is simulated for various sized damper masses. A proof-of-concept experimental apparatus was fabricated to represent a floor with an impact damper. This example system consists of an acrylic plate, a ball for falling object, and an impact damper. A comparison between simulated and experimental results were in good agreement in suggesting that the proposed impact damper is effective at reducing floor impact vibration and sound by 25% and 63%, respectively.

Strain Gauge Balance Uncertainty Analysis at NASA Langley: A Technical Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripp, John S.

1999-01-01

This paper describes a method to determine the uncertainties of measured forces and moments from multi-component force balances used in wind tunnel tests. A multivariate regression technique is first employed to estimate the uncertainties of the six balance sensitivities and 156 interaction coefficients derived from established balance calibration procedures. These uncertainties are then employed to calculate the uncertainties of force-moment values computed from observed balance output readings obtained during tests. Confidence and prediction intervals are obtained for each computed force and moment as functions of the actual measurands. Techniques are discussed for separate estimation of balance bias and precision uncertainties.

Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

2015-04-01

Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

Quantification of pelvic floor muscle strength in female urinary incontinence: A systematic review and comparison of contemporary methodologies.

PubMed

Deegan, Emily G; Stothers, Lynn; Kavanagh, Alex; Macnab, Andrew J

2018-01-01

There remains no gold standard for quantification of voluntary pelvic floor muscle (PFM) strength, despite international guidelines that recommend PFM assessment in females with urinary incontinence (UI). Methods currently reported for quantification of skeletal muscle strength across disciplines are systematically reviewed and their relevance for clinical and academic use related to the pelvic floor are described. A systematic review via Medline, PubMed, CINHAL, and the Cochrane database using key terms for pelvic floor anatomy and function were cross referenced with skeletal muscle strength quantification from 1946 to 2016. Full text peer-reviewed articles in English having female subjects with incontinence were identified. Each study was analyzed for use of controls, type of methodology as direct or indirect measures, benefits, and limitations of the technique. A total of 1586 articles were identified of which 50 met the inclusion criteria. Nine methodologies of determining PFM strength were described including: digital palpation, perineometer, dynamometry, EMG, vaginal cones, ultrasonography, magnetic resonance imaging, urine stream interruption test, and the Colpexin pull test. Thirty-two percent lacked a control group. Technical refinements in both direct and indirect instrumentation for PFM strength measurement are allowing for sensitivity. However, the most common methods of quantification remain digital palpation and perineometry; techniques that pose limitations and yield subjective or indirect measures of muscular strength. Dynamometry has potential as an accurate and sensitive tool, but is limited by inability to assess PFM strength during dynamic movements. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The installation of a sub sea floor observatory using the sea floor drill rig MeBo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wefer, G.; Freudenthal, T.; Kopf, A.

2012-04-01

Sea floor drill rigs that can be deployed from standard research vessels are bridging the gap between dedicated drill ships that are used for deep drillings in the range of several hundred meters below sea floor and conventional sampling tools like gravity corers, piston corer or dredges that only scratch the surface of the sea floor. A major advantage of such robotic drill rigs is that the drilling action is conducted from a stable platform at the sea bed independent of any ship movements due to waves, wind or currents. At the MARUM Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen we developed the sea bed drill rig MeBo that can be deployed from standard research vessels. The drill rig is deployed on the sea floor and controlled from the vessel. Drilling tools for coring the sea floor down to 70 m can be stored on two magazines on the rig. A steel-armoured umbilical is used for lowering the rig to the sea bed in water depths up to 2000 m in the present system configuration. It was successfully operated on ten expeditions since 2005 and drilled more than 1000 m in different types of geology including hemipelagic mud, glacial till as well as sedimentary and crystalline rocks. MeBo boreholes be equipped with sensors and used for long term monitoring are planned. Depending on the scientific demands, a MeBoCORK monitoring system will allow in situ measurements of eg. temperature and pressure. The "MeBoCORK" will be equipped with data loggers and data transmission interface for reading out the collected data from the vessel. By additional payload installation on the MeBoCORK with an ROV it will be possible to increase the energy capacity as well as to conduct fluid sampling in the bore hole for geochemical analyses. It is planned to install a prototype of this additional payload with the MARUM ROV QUEST4000M during the following R/V SONNE cruise in July 2012.

Crater Wall and Floor

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-02-18

The impact crater observed in this NASA Mars Odyssey image taken in Terra Cimmeria suggests sediments have filled the crater due to the flat and smooth nature of the floor compared to rougher surfaces at higher elevations.

Kiwi: An Evaluated Library of Uncertainties in Nuclear Data and Package for Nuclear Sensitivity Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pruet, J

2007-06-23

This report describes Kiwi, a program developed at Livermore to enable mature studies of the relation between imperfectly known nuclear physics and uncertainties in simulations of complicated systems. Kiwi includes a library of evaluated nuclear data uncertainties, tools for modifying data according to these uncertainties, and a simple interface for generating processed data used by transport codes. As well, Kiwi provides access to calculations of k eigenvalues for critical assemblies. This allows the user to check implications of data modifications against integral experiments for multiplying systems. Kiwi is written in python. The uncertainty library has the same format and directorymore » structure as the native ENDL used at Livermore. Calculations for critical assemblies rely on deterministic and Monte Carlo codes developed by B division.« less

Factors affecting the use of hardwood flooring in urban rehabilitation

Treesearch

Robert L. Jr. Nevel; Robert L. Jr. Nevel

1973-01-01

The continued use of hardwood flooring in urban rehabilitation is being threatened. A study of the influences that determine the choice of flooring indicates that economic, physical, or technological factors dominate. Most factors affecting the use of hardwood flooring are related to cost, availability, and compatibility. Of these factors, time and cost of installation...

10. 4TH FLOOR, HOTEL SOAP LINE No. 6 TO SOUTHWEST, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

10. 4TH FLOOR, HOTEL SOAP LINE No. 6 TO SOUTHWEST, WITH AUTOMATIC CUTTER (LEFT), PRESS (CENTER), AND WRAPPER (RIGHT); LARGE CHUTE AT CENTER FROM 5TH FLOOR BINS TO 3RD FLOOR SOAP MILLS; OVERHEAD AND FLOOR (LOWER RIGHT) FINISHED GOODS CONVEYORS TO G BLOCK (HAER NO. NJ-71-NN) - Colgate & Company Jersey City Plant, Building No. B-14, 54-58 Grand Street, Jersey City, Hudson County, NJ

Pelvic floor dyssynergia: efficacy of biofeedback training.

PubMed

Gadel Hak, Nabil; El-Hemaly, Mohamed; Hamdy, Emad; El-Raouf, Ahmed Abd; Atef, Ehab; Salah, Tarek; El-Hanafy, Ehab; Sultan, Ahmad; Haleem, Magdy; Hamed, Hala

2011-03-01

Paradoxical contraction of the pelvic floor during attempts to defaecate is described as pelvic floor dyssynergia (anismus). It is a behavioural disorder (no associated morphological or neurological abnormalities); consequently, biofeedback training has been recommended as a behavioural therapy for such a disorder. The aim of the present study was to evaluate long-term satisfaction of patients diagnosed with pelvic floor dyssynergia after biofeedback. Sixty patients (35 females and 25 males) with a mean age of 30±12years and a 4year duration of constipation were included. Forty-five patients had normal colonic transit and 15 patients had slow colonic transit. History, physical examination and barium enema were done to exclude constipation secondary to organic causes. Colonic and pelvic floor functions (colon-transit time, anorectal manometry, EMG and defaecography) were performed before and after biofeedback treatments. Patients were treated on a weekly basis with an average of (6±2) sessions. At the end of sessions, 55 out of 60 patients (91.6%) reported a subjectively overall improvement. Symptoms of dyschezia were reported less frequently after biofeedback. Age and gender were not predictive factors of outcome. No symptoms at initial assessment were predictive for patient's satisfaction but the only factor of predictive value was the diagnosis of anismus and the motivated patient who wanted to continue the sessions. Biofeedback remains a morbidity free, low-cost and effective outpatient therapy for well-motivated patients complaining of functional constipation and diagnosed as pelvic floor dyssynergia. Copyright © 2011 Arab Journal of Gastroenterology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear reactor cavity floor passive heat removal system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edwards, Tyler A.; Neeley, Gary W.; Inman, James B.

A nuclear reactor includes a reactor core disposed in a reactor pressure vessel. A radiological containment contains the nuclear reactor and includes a concrete floor located underneath the nuclear reactor. An ex vessel corium retention system includes flow channels embedded in the concrete floor located underneath the nuclear reactor, an inlet in fluid communication with first ends of the flow channels, and an outlet in fluid communication with second ends of the flow channels. In some embodiments the inlet is in fluid communication with the interior of the radiological containment at a first elevation and the outlet is in fluidmore » communication with the interior of the radiological containment at a second elevation higher than the first elevation. The radiological containment may include a reactor cavity containing a lower portion of the pressure vessel, wherein the concrete floor located underneath the nuclear reactor is the reactor cavity floor.« less

120 Years of U.S. Residential Housing Stock and Floor Space.

PubMed

Moura, Maria Cecilia P; Smith, Steven J; Belzer, David B

2015-01-01

Residential buildings are a key driver of energy consumption and also impact transportation and land-use. Energy consumption in the residential sector accounts for one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions, with floor space a major driver of building energy demands. In this work a consistent, vintage-disaggregated, annual long-term series of U.S. housing stock and residential floor space for 1891-2010 is presented. An attempt was made to minimize the effects of the incompleteness and inconsistencies present in the national housing survey data. Over the 1891-2010 period, floor space increased almost tenfold, from approximately 24,700 to 235,150 million square feet, corresponding to a doubling of floor space per capita from approximately 400 to 800 square feet. While population increased five times over the period, a 50% decrease in household size contributed towards a tenfold increase in the number of housing units and floor space, while average floor space per unit remains surprisingly constant, as a result of housing retirement dynamics. In the last 30 years, however, these trends appear to be changing, as household size shows signs of leveling off, or even increasing again, while average floor space per unit has been increasing. GDP and total floor space show a remarkably constant growth trend over the period and total residential sector primary energy consumption and floor space show a similar growth trend over the last 60 years, decoupling only within the last decade.

120 Years of U.S. Residential Housing Stock and Floor Space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinto de Moura, Maria C.; Smith, Steven J.; Belzer, David B.

2015-08-11

Energy consumption in the residential sector accounts for one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions. Floor space is a major driver of building energy demand. This paper develops a historical time series of total residential floor space for 1891-2010 and examines the role of socio-economic drivers GDP, population and household size on floor space. Using primarily data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop new construction and vintage-disaggregated housing stock for three building types, and address various data inconsistency issues. An examination of the long-term relationship of GDP and total residential floor space shows a remarkably constantmore » trend over the period. While population increases five times over the period, a 50% decrease in household size contributes towards a tenfold increase in the number of housing units and floor space, while average floor space per unit remains surprisingly constant, as a result of housing retirement dynamics. In the last 30 years, however, these trends appear to be changing, as household size shows signs of leveling off, or even increasing again, while average floor space per unit has been increasing. Total residential sector primary energy consumption and floor space show a similar growth trend over the last 60 years.« less

Individual variation in prelaying behaviour and the incidence of floor eggs.

PubMed

Cooper, J J; Appleby, M C

1996-05-01

1. Floor eggs are a problem in non-cage systems for laying hens, as they require secondary egg collecting. Failure to lay in a well-defined nest site may also be a welfare problem for the hens, but only if their nesting motivation has been thwarted. We investigated the relationships between a hen's prelaying behaviour and its tendency to lay on the floor by recording the behaviour of 20 hens housed individually in wire cages with single littered nest boxes. 3. Most floor eggs (80%) were laid by the same 6 hens. These 6 "floor-layers" performed more nest seeking behaviour, less nest-building behaviour and less sitting prior to oviposition than the 14 hens that consistently laid in nest boxes. 4. The incidence of floor eggs declined with age. Both nest and floor laying hens performed less nest seeking behaviour with age. Floor layers, however, increased their performance of nesting behaviour, whilst nest layers performed less nesting behaviour with age. 5. Floor laying hens behaved as if they found the nest box less attractive than nest-laying hens; perhaps because they had lower nesting motivation, or perhaps because their nesting motivation was as high, but they less readily perceived the nest box as an appropriate nest site.

Ultrafast MR imaging of the pelvic floor.

PubMed

Unterweger, M; Marincek, B; Gottstein-Aalame, N; Debatin, J F; Seifert, B; Ochsenbein-Imhof, N; Perucchini, D; Kubik-Huch, R A

2001-04-01

The aim of this study was to compare pelvic floor anatomy and laxity at rest and on straining (Valsalva's maneuver) using dynamic ultrafast MR imaging in women who were continent versus those with stress incontinence differing in obstetric history. Thirty continent women were divided into three equal groups (nulliparous, previous cesarean delivery, previous vaginal delivery) and compared with 10 women with stress-incontinence with a history of at least one vaginal delivery. MR imaging of the pelvic floor at rest and on maximal strain was performed, using axial T2-weighted fast spin-echo images followed by sagittal ultrafast T2-weighted single-shot fast spin-echo sequences. Mean population age (age range, 22-45 years; mean +/- SD, 36 +/- 5.4 years), was similar in the four groups, as was parity in the three parous groups. Mean distances between the bladder floor and pubococcygeal line at rest did not differ between the four groups. On straining, bladder floor descent was 1.1 +/- 0.9, 1.0 +/- 1.1, and 1.9 +/- 0.9 cm in continent nulliparous, cesarean delivery, and vaginal delivery women, respectively, versus 3.2 +/- 1.0 cm in incontinent women (p = 0.0005). Cervical descent was greater in incontinent versus nulliparous women (p = 0.0019). Bladder floor descent was greater in the continent vaginal delivery group than in continent cesarean delivery control patients (p = 0.04). In patients with stress incontinence, symptoms did not correlate with amplitude of descent. The right levator muscle was thinner overall than the left, regardless of frequency direction (p = 0.001). Ultrafast MR imaging using the T2-weighted single-shot fast spin-echo sequence allows dynamic evaluation of the pelvic compartments at maximal strain with no need for contrast medium. Pelvic floor laxity and supporting fascia abnormalities were most common in patients with stress incontinence followed by continent women with a history of vaginal delivery. The results are therefore compatible with the

Elevated waterproof access floor system and method of making the same

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Marc M. (Inventor)

1987-01-01

An elevated waterproof access floor system having subfloor channels or compartments for power lines, gas lines or the like is adapted such that it can be opened and subsequently resealed without destroying the waterproofing and without destroying its aesthetic appearance. A multiplicity of tiles are supported on a support grid, and a flooring sheet is supported on the tiles. Attachment means are provided to prevent lateral but not vertical movement of the flooring sheet with respect to the tiles so that the flooring sheet can be lifted off the tiles, but when the flooring sheet is supported on the tiles, no lateral slipping will occur. The flooring sheet is made of a heat resealable material, so that it can be cut away in sections, and the tiles therebelow lifted off, to provide access to subfloor compartments.

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Subsurface Flow Parameters to Gravimetric Variations During Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maina, Fadji Zaouna; Guadagnini, Alberto

2018-01-01

We study the contribution of typically uncertain subsurface flow parameters to gravity changes that can be recorded during pumping tests in unconfined aquifers. We do so in the framework of a Global Sensitivity Analysis and quantify the effects of uncertainty of such parameters on the first four statistical moments of the probability distribution of gravimetric variations induced by the operation of the well. System parameters are grouped into two main categories, respectively, governing groundwater flow in the unsaturated and saturated portions of the domain. We ground our work on the three-dimensional analytical model proposed by Mishra and Neuman (2011), which fully takes into account the richness of the physical process taking place across the unsaturated and saturated zones and storage effects in a finite radius pumping well. The relative influence of model parameter uncertainties on drawdown, moisture content, and gravity changes are quantified through (a) the Sobol' indices, derived from a classical decomposition of variance and (b) recently developed indices quantifying the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the (ensemble) mean, skewness, and kurtosis of the model output. Our results document (i) the importance of the effects of the parameters governing the unsaturated flow dynamics on the mean and variance of local drawdown and gravity changes; (ii) the marked sensitivity (as expressed in terms of the statistical moments analyzed) of gravity changes to the employed water retention curve model parameter, specific yield, and storage, and (iii) the influential role of hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated and saturated zones to the skewness and kurtosis of gravimetric variation distributions. The observed temporal dynamics of the strength of the relative contribution of system parameters to gravimetric variations suggest that gravity data have a clear potential to provide useful information for estimating the key hydraulic

Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dieye, A.M.; Roy, David P.; Hanan, N.P.; Liu, S.; Hansen, M.; Toure, A.

2012-01-01

Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

Floor of Baldet Crater

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-06-17

This NASA Mars Odyssey image shows a remarkable array of dunes on the floor of a large impact crater named Baldet. Many of the dunes in this region are isolated features with large, sand-free interdune surfaces between the individual dunes.

A Bayesian Network Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Identifying Dominant Processes in a Multi-physics Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Sensitivity analysis has been an important tool in groundwater modeling to identify the influential parameters. Among various sensitivity analysis methods, the variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity for its model independence characteristic and capability of providing accurate sensitivity measurements. However, the conventional variance-based method only considers uncertainty contribution of single model parameters. In this research, we extended the variance-based method to consider more uncertainty sources and developed a new framework to allow flexible combinations of different uncertainty components. We decompose the uncertainty sources into a hierarchical three-layer structure: scenario, model and parametric. Furthermore, each layer of uncertainty source is capable of containing multiple components. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework was then constructed following this three-layer structure using Bayesian network. Different uncertainty components are represented as uncertain nodes in this network. Through the framework, variance-based sensitivity analysis can be implemented with great flexibility of using different grouping strategies for uncertainty components. The variance-based sensitivity analysis thus is improved to be able to investigate the importance of an extended range of uncertainty sources: scenario, model, and other different combinations of uncertainty components which can represent certain key model system processes (e.g., groundwater recharge process, flow reactive transport process). For test and demonstration purposes, the developed methodology was implemented into a test case of real-world groundwater reactive transport modeling with various uncertainty sources. The results demonstrate that the new sensitivity analysis method is able to estimate accurate importance measurements for any uncertainty sources which were formed by different combinations of uncertainty components. The new methodology can

Impact of implicit effects on uncertainties and sensitivities of the Doppler coefficient of a LWR pin cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hursin, Mathieu; Leray, Olivier; Perret, Gregory; Pautz, Andreas; Bostelmann, Friederike; Aures, Alexander; Zwermann, Winfried

2017-09-01

In the present work, PSI and GRS sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods, SHARK-X and XSUSA respectively, are compared for reactivity coefficient calculation; for reference the results of the TSUNAMI and SAMPLER modules of the SCALE code package are also provided. The main objective of paper is to assess the impact of the implicit effect, e.g., considering the effect of cross section perturbation on the self-shielding calculation, on the Doppler coefficient SA and UQ. Analyses are done for a Light Water Reactor (LWR) pin cell based on Phase I of the UAM LWR benchmark. The negligence of implicit effects in XSUSA and TSUNAMI leads to deviations of a few percent between the sensitivity profiles compared to SAMPLER and TSUNAMI (incl. implicit effects) except for 238U elastic scattering. The implicit effect is much larger for the SHARK-X calculations because of its coarser energy group structure between 10 eV and 10 keV compared to the applied SCALE libraries. It is concluded that the influence of the implicit effect strongly depends on the energy mesh of the nuclear data library of the neutron transport solver involved in the UQ calculations and may be magnified by the response considered.

The effect of uncertainties in distance-based ranking methods for multi-criteria decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaini, Nor I.; Utyuzhnikov, Sergei V.

2017-08-01

Data in the multi-criteria decision making are often imprecise and changeable. Therefore, it is important to carry out sensitivity analysis test for the multi-criteria decision making problem. The paper aims to present a sensitivity analysis for some ranking techniques based on the distance measures in multi-criteria decision making. Two types of uncertainties are considered for the sensitivity analysis test. The first uncertainty is related to the input data, while the second uncertainty is towards the Decision Maker preferences (weights). The ranking techniques considered in this study are TOPSIS, the relative distance and trade-off ranking methods. TOPSIS and the relative distance method measure a distance from an alternative to the ideal and antiideal solutions. In turn, the trade-off ranking calculates a distance of an alternative to the extreme solutions and other alternatives. Several test cases are considered to study the performance of each ranking technique in both types of uncertainties.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

Public perception and communication of scientific uncertainty.

PubMed

Broomell, Stephen B; Kane, Patrick Bodilly

2017-02-01

Understanding how the public perceives uncertainty in scientific research is fundamental for effective communication about research and its inevitable uncertainty. Previous work found that scientific evidence differentially influenced beliefs from individuals with different political ideologies. Evidence that threatens an individual's political ideology is perceived as more uncertain than nonthreatening evidence. The authors present 3 studies examining perceptions of scientific uncertainty more broadly by including sciences that are not politically polarizing. Study 1 develops scales measuring perceptions of scientific uncertainty. It finds (a) 3 perceptual dimensions of scientific uncertainty, with the primary dimension representing a perception of precision; (b) the precision dimension of uncertainty is strongly associated with the perceived value of a research field; and (c) differences in perceived uncertainty across political affiliations. Study 2 manipulated these dimensions, finding that Republicans were more sensitive than Democrats to descriptions of uncertainty associated with a research field (e.g., psychology). Study 3 found that these views of a research field did not extend to the evaluation of individual results produced by the field. Together, these studies show that perceptions of scientific uncertainty associated with entire research fields are valid predictors of abstract perceptions of scientific quality, benefit, and allocation of funding. Yet, they do not inform judgments about individual results. Therefore, polarization in the acceptance of specific results is not likely due to individual differences in perceived scientific uncertainty. Further, the direction of influence potentially could be reversed, such that perceived quality of scientific results could be used to influence perceptions about scientific research fields. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mather, Janice L.; Taylor, Shawn C.

2015-01-01

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

Eigenvalue Contributon Estimator for Sensitivity Calculations with TSUNAMI-3D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Williams, Mark L

2007-01-01

Since the release of the Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) codes in SCALE [1], the use of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques for criticality safety applications has greatly increased within the user community. In general, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is transitioning from a technique used only by specialists to a practical tool in routine use. With the desire to use the tool more routinely comes the need to improve the solution methodology to reduce the input and computational burden on the user. This paper reviews the current solution methodology of the Monte Carlo eigenvalue sensitivity analysismore » sequence TSUNAMI-3D, describes an alternative approach, and presents results from both methodologies.« less

Impact of interpatient variability on organ dose estimates according to MIRD schema: Uncertainty and variance-based sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Zvereva, Alexandra; Kamp, Florian; Schlattl, Helmut; Zankl, Maria; Parodi, Katia

2018-05-17

Variance-based sensitivity analysis (SA) is described and applied to the radiation dosimetry model proposed by the Committee on Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) for the organ-level absorbed dose calculations in nuclear medicine. The uncertainties in the dose coefficients thus calculated are also evaluated. A Monte Carlo approach was used to compute first-order and total-effect SA indices, which rank the input factors according to their influence on the uncertainty in the output organ doses. These methods were applied to the radiopharmaceutical (S)-4-(3- 18 F-fluoropropyl)-L-glutamic acid ( 18 F-FSPG) as an example. Since 18 F-FSPG has 11 notable source regions, a 22-dimensional model was considered here, where 11 input factors are the time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs) in the source regions and 11 input factors correspond to the sets of the specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) employed in the dose calculation. The SA was restricted to the foregoing 22 input factors. The distributions of the input factors were built based on TIACs of five individuals to whom the radiopharmaceutical 18 F-FSPG was administered and six anatomical models, representing two reference, two overweight, and two slim individuals. The self-absorption SAFs were mass-scaled to correspond to the reference organ masses. The estimated relative uncertainties were in the range 10%-30%, with a minimum and a maximum for absorbed dose coefficients for urinary bladder wall and heart wall, respectively. The applied global variance-based SA enabled us to identify the input factors that have the highest influence on the uncertainty in the organ doses. With the applied mass-scaling of the self-absorption SAFs, these factors included the TIACs for absorbed dose coefficients in the source regions and the SAFs from blood as source region for absorbed dose coefficients in highly vascularized target regions. For some combinations of proximal target and source regions, the corresponding cross

49 CFR 38.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 38.79 Floors, steps and thresholds... have a band of color(s) running the full width of the step or threshold which contrasts from the step tread and riser or adjacent floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

49 CFR 38.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 38.79 Floors, steps and thresholds... have a band of color(s) running the full width of the step or threshold which contrasts from the step tread and riser or adjacent floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

49 CFR 38.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 38.79 Floors, steps and thresholds... have a band of color(s) running the full width of the step or threshold which contrasts from the step tread and riser or adjacent floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

49 CFR 38.79 - Floors, steps and thresholds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Light Rail Vehicles and Systems § 38.79 Floors, steps and thresholds... have a band of color(s) running the full width of the step or threshold which contrasts from the step tread and riser or adjacent floor, either light-on-dark or dark-on-light. ...

76 FR 76435 - Multilayered Wood Flooring From China

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-07

...)] Multilayered Wood Flooring From China Determinations On the basis of the record \\1\\ developed in the subject... multilayered wood flooring, provided for in subheadings 4409.10, 4409.29, 4412.31, 4412.32, 4412.39, 4412.94... American Hardwood Parity (``CAHP''), an ad hoc association of U.S. manufacturers of multilayered wood...

Ensembles vs. information theory: supporting science under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Grey S.; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2018-05-01

Multi-model ensembles are one of the most common ways to deal with epistemic uncertainty in hydrology. This is a problem because there is no known way to sample models such that the resulting ensemble admits a measure that has any systematic (i.e., asymptotic, bounded, or consistent) relationship with uncertainty. Multi-model ensembles are effectively sensitivity analyses and cannot - even partially - quantify uncertainty. One consequence of this is that multi-model approaches cannot support a consistent scientific method - in particular, multi-model approaches yield unbounded errors in inference. In contrast, information theory supports a coherent hypothesis test that is robust to (i.e., bounded under) arbitrary epistemic uncertainty. This paper may be understood as advocating a procedure for hypothesis testing that does not require quantifying uncertainty, but is coherent and reliable (i.e., bounded) in the presence of arbitrary (unknown and unknowable) uncertainty. We conclude by offering some suggestions about how this proposed philosophy of science suggests new ways to conceptualize and construct simulation models of complex, dynamical systems.

120 years of U.S. residential housing stock and floor space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.; Belzer, David B.

Residential buildings are a key driver of energy consumption and also impact transportation and land-use. Energy consumption in the residential sector accounts for one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions, with floor space a major driver of building energy demands. In this work a consistent, vintage-disaggregated, annual long-term series of U.S. housing stock and residential floor space for 1891–2010 is presented. An attempt was made to minimize the effects of the incompleteness and inconsistencies present in the national housing survey data. Over the 1891–2010 period, floor space increased almost tenfold, from approximately 24,700 to 235,150 million squaremore » feet, corresponding to a doubling of floor space per capita from approximately 400 to 800 square feet. While population increased five times over the period, a 50% decrease in household size contributed towards a tenfold increase in the number of housing units and floor space, while average floor space per unit remains surprisingly constant, as a result of housing retirement dynamics. In the last 30 years, however, these trends appear to be changing, as household size shows signs of leveling off, or even increasing again, while average floor space per unit has been increasing. GDP and total floor space show a remarkably constant growth trend over the period and total residential sector primary energy consumption and floor space show a similar growth trend over the last 60 years, decoupling only within the last decade.« less

120 Years of U.S. Residential Housing Stock and Floor Space

PubMed Central

Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.; Belzer, David B.

2015-01-01

Residential buildings are a key driver of energy consumption and also impact transportation and land-use. Energy consumption in the residential sector accounts for one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions, with floor space a major driver of building energy demands. In this work a consistent, vintage-disaggregated, annual long-term series of U.S. housing stock and residential floor space for 1891–2010 is presented. An attempt was made to minimize the effects of the incompleteness and inconsistencies present in the national housing survey data. Over the 1891–2010 period, floor space increased almost tenfold, from approximately 24,700 to 235,150 million square feet, corresponding to a doubling of floor space per capita from approximately 400 to 800 square feet. While population increased five times over the period, a 50% decrease in household size contributed towards a tenfold increase in the number of housing units and floor space, while average floor space per unit remains surprisingly constant, as a result of housing retirement dynamics. In the last 30 years, however, these trends appear to be changing, as household size shows signs of leveling off, or even increasing again, while average floor space per unit has been increasing. GDP and total floor space show a remarkably constant growth trend over the period and total residential sector primary energy consumption and floor space show a similar growth trend over the last 60 years, decoupling only within the last decade. PMID:26263391

120 years of U.S. residential housing stock and floor space

DOE PAGES

Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.; Belzer, David B.; ...

2015-08-11

Residential buildings are a key driver of energy consumption and also impact transportation and land-use. Energy consumption in the residential sector accounts for one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions, with floor space a major driver of building energy demands. In this work a consistent, vintage-disaggregated, annual long-term series of U.S. housing stock and residential floor space for 1891–2010 is presented. An attempt was made to minimize the effects of the incompleteness and inconsistencies present in the national housing survey data. Over the 1891–2010 period, floor space increased almost tenfold, from approximately 24,700 to 235,150 million squaremore » feet, corresponding to a doubling of floor space per capita from approximately 400 to 800 square feet. While population increased five times over the period, a 50% decrease in household size contributed towards a tenfold increase in the number of housing units and floor space, while average floor space per unit remains surprisingly constant, as a result of housing retirement dynamics. In the last 30 years, however, these trends appear to be changing, as household size shows signs of leveling off, or even increasing again, while average floor space per unit has been increasing. GDP and total floor space show a remarkably constant growth trend over the period and total residential sector primary energy consumption and floor space show a similar growth trend over the last 60 years, decoupling only within the last decade.« less

Floor-fractured craters on Ceres and implications for interior processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buczkowski, Debra; Schenk, Paul M.; Scully, Jennifer E. C.; Park, Ryan; Preusker, Frank; Raymond, Carol; Russell, Christopher T.

2016-10-01

Several of the impact craters on Ceres have patterns of fractures on their floors. These fractures appear similar to those found within a class of lunar craters referred to as Floor-Fractured Craters (FFCs) [Schultz, 1976].Lunar FFCs are characterized by anomalously shallow floors cut by radial, concentric, and/or polygonal fractures, and have been classified into crater classes, Types 1 through 6, based on their morphometric properties [Schultz, 1976; Jozwiak et al, 2012, 2015]. Models for their formation have included both floor uplift due to magmatic intrusion below the crater or floor shallowing due to viscous relaxation. However, the observation that the depth versus diameter (d/D) relationship of the FFCs is distinctly shallower than the same association for other lunar craters supports the hypotheses that the floor fractures form due to shallow magmatic intrusion under the crater [Jozwiak et al, 2012, 2015].FFCs have also been identified on Mars [Bamberg et al., 2014]. Martian FFCs exhibit morphological characteristics similar to the lunar FFCs, and analyses suggest that the Martian FCCs also formed due to volcanic activity, although heavily influenced by interactions with groundwater and/or ice.We have cataloged the Ceres FFCs according to the classification scheme designed for the Moon. Large (>50 km) Ceres FFCs are most consistent with Type 1 lunar FFCs, having deep floors, central peaks, wall terraces, and radial and/or concentric fractures. Smaller craters on Ceres are more consistent with Type 4 lunar FFCs, having less-pronounced floor fractures and a v-shaped moats separating the wall scarp from the crater interior.An analysis of the d/D ratio for Ceres craters shows that, like lunar FFCs, the Ceres FFCs are anomalously shallow. This suggests that the fractures on the floor of Ceres FFCs may be due the intrusion of a low-density material below the craters that is uplifting their floors. While on the Moon and Mars the intrusive material is hypothesized

Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclide Importance to One-Group Neutron Cross Sections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Nemoto, Atsushi; Yoshimura, Yoshikane

The importance of nuclides is useful when investigating nuclide characteristics in a given neutron spectrum. However, it is derived using one-group microscopic cross sections, which may contain large errors or uncertainties. The sensitivity coefficient shows the effect of these errors or uncertainties on the importance.The equations for calculating sensitivity coefficients of importance to one-group nuclear constants are derived using the perturbation method. Numerical values are also evaluated for some important cases for fast and thermal reactor systems.Many characteristics of the sensitivity coefficients are derived from the derived equations and numerical results. The matrix of sensitivity coefficients seems diagonally dominant. However,more » it is not always satisfied in a detailed structure. The detailed structure of the matrix and the characteristics of coefficients are given.By using the obtained sensitivity coefficients, some demonstration calculations have been performed. The effects of error and uncertainty of nuclear data and of the change of one-group cross-section input caused by fuel design changes through the neutron spectrum are investigated. These calculations show that the sensitivity coefficient is useful when evaluating error or uncertainty of nuclide importance caused by the cross-section data error or uncertainty and when checking effectiveness of fuel cell or core design change for improving neutron economy.« less

27 CFR 46.233 - Payment of floor stocks tax.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.233 Payment of floor stocks tax. (a...

27 CFR 46.233 - Payment of floor stocks tax.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.233 Payment of floor stocks tax. (a...

27 CFR 46.233 - Payment of floor stocks tax.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.233 Payment of floor stocks tax. (a...

27 CFR 46.233 - Payment of floor stocks tax.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.233 Payment of floor stocks tax. (a...

Smart Floor with Integrated Triboelectric Nanogenerator As Energy Harvester and Motion Sensor.

PubMed

He, Chuan; Zhu, Weijun; Chen, Baodong; Xu, Liang; Jiang, Tao; Han, Chang Bao; Gu, Guang Qin; Li, Dichen; Wang, Zhong Lin

2017-08-09

A smart floor is demonstrated by integrating a square-frame triboelectric nanogenerator (SF-TENG) into a standard wood floor. The smart floor has two working modes based on two pairs of triboelectric materials: one is purposely chosen polytetrafluoroethylene films and aluminum (Al) balls, and the other is the floor itself and the objects that can be triboelectrically charged, such as basketball, shoe soles, and Scotch tape, etc. Utilizing the Al balls enclosed inside shallow boxes, the smart floor is capable of harvesting vibrational energy and, hence, provides a nonintrusive way to detect sudden falls in elderly people. In addition, when the basketball is bounced repeatedly on the floor, the average output voltage and current are 364 ± 43 V and 9 ± 1 μA, respectively, and 87 serially connected light-emitting diodes can be lit up simultaneously. Furthermore, the friction between the triboelectrically chargeable objects and the floor can also induce an alternating current output in the external circuit without the vibration of the Al balls. Normal human footsteps on the floor produce a voltage of 238 ± 17 V and a current of 2.4 ± 0.3 μA. Therefore, this work presents a smart floor with built-in SF-TENG without compromising the flexibility and stability of the standard wood floor and also demonstrates a way to harvest ambient energy solely by using conventional triboelectric materials in our daily life.

Lack of viable seeds in the forest floor after clearcutting

Treesearch

Robert M. Frank; Lawrence O. Safford

1970-01-01

The viability of seeds o[ northern conifers apparently does not persist in the forest floor for more than one year. A set of forest-floor samples collected two years alter a heavy seed crop and one year alter a seedcrop failure did not produce any conifer germinants, regardless of whether or not the surfaces of the samples were disturbed. A second set of forest-floor...

Are Floor-Fractured Craters on Ceres Formed by Cryomagmatism?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buczkowski, D. L.; Sizemore, H. G.; Bland, M. T.; Scully, J. E. C.; Quick, L. C.; Hughson, K. H. G.; Park, R. S.; Preusker, F.; Raymond, C. A.; Russell, C. T.

2018-06-01

Several of the impact craters on Ceres have sets of fractures on their floors, morphologically similar lunar Floor-Fractured Craters. We present a geomorphic and topographic analysis of the cerean FFCs and propose hypotheses for their formation.

Quantifying Groundwater Model Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, M. C.; Poeter, E.; Foglia, L.

2007-12-01

Groundwater models are characterized by the (a) processes simulated, (b) boundary conditions, (c) initial conditions, (d) method of solving the equation, (e) parameterization, and (f) parameter values. Models are related to the system of concern using data, some of which form the basis of observations used most directly, through objective functions, to estimate parameter values. Here we consider situations in which parameter values are determined by minimizing an objective function. Other methods of model development are not considered because their ad hoc nature generally prohibits clear quantification of uncertainty. Quantifying prediction uncertainty ideally includes contributions from (a) to (f). The parameter values of (f) tend to be continuous with respect to both the simulated equivalents of the observations and the predictions, while many aspects of (a) through (e) are discrete. This fundamental difference means that there are options for evaluating the uncertainty related to parameter values that generally do not exist for other aspects of a model. While the methods available for (a) to (e) can be used for the parameter values (f), the inferential methods uniquely available for (f) generally are less computationally intensive and often can be used to considerable advantage. However, inferential approaches require calculation of sensitivities. Whether the numerical accuracy and stability of the model solution required for accurate sensitivities is more broadly important to other model uses is an issue that needs to be addressed. Alternative global methods can require 100 or even 1,000 times the number of runs needed by inferential methods, though methods of reducing the number of needed runs are being developed and tested. Here we present three approaches for quantifying model uncertainty and investigate their strengths and weaknesses. (1) Represent more aspects as parameters so that the computationally efficient methods can be broadly applied. This

Uncertainty Modeling for Structural Control Analysis and Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Mark E.; Crawley, Edward F.

1996-01-01

The development of an accurate model of uncertainties for the control of structures that undergo a change in operational environment, based solely on modeling and experimentation in the original environment is studied. The application used throughout this work is the development of an on-orbit uncertainty model based on ground modeling and experimentation. A ground based uncertainty model consisting of mean errors and bounds on critical structural parameters is developed. The uncertainty model is created using multiple data sets to observe all relevant uncertainties in the system. The Discrete Extended Kalman Filter is used as an identification/parameter estimation method for each data set, in addition to providing a covariance matrix which aids in the development of the uncertainty model. Once ground based modal uncertainties have been developed, they are localized to specific degrees of freedom in the form of mass and stiffness uncertainties. Two techniques are presented: a matrix method which develops the mass and stiffness uncertainties in a mathematical manner; and a sensitivity method which assumes a form for the mass and stiffness uncertainties in macroelements and scaling factors. This form allows the derivation of mass and stiffness uncertainties in a more physical manner. The mass and stiffness uncertainties of the ground based system are then mapped onto the on-orbit system, and projected to create an analogous on-orbit uncertainty model in the form of mean errors and bounds on critical parameters. The Middeck Active Control Experiment is introduced as experimental verification for the localization and projection methods developed. In addition, closed loop results from on-orbit operations of the experiment verify the use of the uncertainty model for control analysis and synthesis in space.

A prospective study of floor surface, shoes, floor cleaning and slipping in US limited-service restaurant workers.

PubMed

Verma, Santosh K; Chang, Wen Ruey; Courtney, Theodore K; Lombardi, David A; Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Brennan, Melanye J; Mittleman, Murray A; Ware, James H; Perry, Melissa J

2011-04-01

Slips and falls are a leading cause of injury at work. Few studies, however, have systematically examined risk factors of slipping outside the laboratory environment. This study examined the association between floor surface characteristics, slip-resistant shoes, floor cleaning frequency and the risk of slipping in limited-service restaurant workers. 475 workers from 36 limited-service restaurants from three major chains in six states in the USA were recruited to participate in a prospective cohort study of workplace slipping. Kitchen floor surface roughness and coefficient of friction (COF) were measured in eight working areas and then averaged within each restaurant. The use of slip-resistant shoes was determined by examining the participant's shoes and noting the presence of a 'slip-resistant' marking on the sole. Restaurant managers reported the frequency of daily kitchen floor cleaning. Participants reported their slip experience and work hours weekly for up to 12 weeks. The survey materials were made available in three languages: English, Spanish and Portuguese. The associations between rate of slipping and risk factors were assessed using a multivariable negative binomial generalised estimating equation model. The mean of individual slipping rate varied among the restaurants from 0.02 to 2.49 slips per 40 work hours. After adjusting for age, gender, BMI, education, primary language, job tenure and restaurant chain, the use of slip-resistant shoes was associated with a 54% reduction in the reported rate of slipping (95% CI 37% to 64%), and the rate of slipping decreased by 21% (95% CI 5% to 34%) for each 0.1 increase in the mean kitchen COF. Increasing floor cleaning frequency was significantly associated with a decreasing rate of slipping when considered in isolation but not after statistical adjustment for other factors. These results provide support for the use of slip-resistant shoes and measures to increase COF as preventive interventions to reduce slips

Facing uncertainty in ecosystem services-based resource management.