Science.gov

Sample records for future climatic conditions

  1. Simulating Freshwater Availability under Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, F.; Zeng, N.; Motesharrei, S.; Gustafson, K. C.; Rivas, J.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.; Kalnay, E.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater availability is a key factor for regional development. Precipitation, evaporation, river inflow and outflow are the major terms in the estimate of regional water supply. In this study, we aim to obtain a realistic estimate for these variables from 1901 to 2100. First we calculated the ensemble mean precipitation using the 2011-2100 RCP4.5 output (re-sampled to half-degree spatial resolution) from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The projections are then combined with the half-degree 1901-2010 Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS3.2 dataset after bias correction. We then used the combined data to drive our UMD Earth System Model (ESM), in order to generate evaporation and runoff. We also developed a River-Routing Scheme based on the idea of Taikan Oki, as part of the ESM. It is capable of calculating river inflow and outflow for any region, driven by the gridded runoff output. River direction and slope information from Global Dominant River Tracing (DRT) dataset are included in our scheme. The effects of reservoirs/dams are parameterized based on a few simple factors such as soil moisture, population density and geographic regions. Simulated river flow is validated with river gauge measurements for the world's major rivers. We have applied our river flow calculation to two data-rich watersheds in the United States: Phoenix AMA watershed and the Potomac River Basin. The results are used in our SImple WAter model (SIWA) to explore water management options.

  2. Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rammig, A.; Jonas, T.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Rixen, C.

    2010-06-01

    Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971-2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.

  3. Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rammig, A.; Jonas, T.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Rixen, C.

    2009-11-01

    Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt-out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt-out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971-2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt-out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.

  4. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  5. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  6. Comparing Observed Hurricane Conditions Against Potential Future Climate Change Influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, W. D.

    2012-12-01

    Climate Adaptation Science Investigators: (CASI) is to advance and apply NASA's scientific expertise and products to develop climate adaptation strategies that support NASA's overall mission by minimizing risks to each center's operations, physical assets, and personnel. Using Hurricane Katrina observations as a baseline, we use ADCIRC to model surge extent with simple modifications of the storm track. We examine two time now (T0) scenarios of present-day climatological factors: 1) translating the 2005 path 7 km west; and 2) rotating the approach angle from due-north to WNW. Second, we examine two future time scenarios (TX) by infusing climate change conditions, such as sea level rise and increased storm intensity, into a T0 baseline to assess future impacts. The primary goal of this work entails planning and protecting NASA assets and infrastructure. The adjacent communities, state and local emergency managers, gain benefit from this NASA work as data and analysis includes the surrounding geography.

  7. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other

  8. Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for

  9. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  10. Climatic conditions in northern Canada: past and future.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Edwards, Thomas W D

    2009-07-01

    This article reviews the historical, instrumental, and future changes in climate for the northern latitudes of Canada. Discussion of historical climate over the last 10 000 years focuses on major climatic shifts including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and how these changes compare with those most recently experienced during the period of instrumental records. In reference to the latter, details are noted about observed trends in temperature and precipitation that have been recorded over the last half century, which exhibit strong west to east and north to south spatial contrasts. A comprehensive review of future changes is also provided based on outputs from seven atmosphere-ocean global climate models and six emission scenarios. Discussion focuses on annual, seasonal, and related spatial changes for three 30-year periods centered on the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. In summary, substantial changes to temperature and precipitation are projected for the Canadian North during the twenty-first century. Although there is considerable variability within the various projections, all scenarios show higher temperature and, for the most part, increasing precipitation over the entire region. PMID:19714958

  11. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  12. Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

    2010-05-01

    To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a

  13. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  14. North Sea wave conditions: an analysis of four transient future climate realizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groll, Nikolaus; Grabemann, Iris; Gaslikova, Lidia

    2014-01-01

    The multi-decadal wave conditions in the North Sea can be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. That may lead to the intensification of wave extremes in the future and consequently increase risks for the coastal areas as well as for on- and offshore human activities. Potential changes caused by alteration of atmospheric patterns are investigated. Four transient climate projections (1961-2100), reflecting two IPCC emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two different initial states, are used to simulate the wave scenarios. The potential wind-induced changes in waves are studied by comparing future statistics (2001-2100) with the corresponding reference conditions (1961-2000). Generally, there is a small increase in future 99th percentile significant wave height for most eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century. This small increase is superimposed by a strong variability of the annual extremes on time scales of decades. Opposite to the differences in wave height, the change in wave direction to more waves propagating east shows less decadal variability and is more uniform among all realizations. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial differences of the wave height in the four climate projections point to the uncertainties in the climate change signals.

  15. Analysis of extreme climatic features over South America from CLARIS-LPB ensemble of regional climate models for future conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, E.; Zaninelli, P.; Carril, A.; Menendez, C.; Dominguez, M.

    2012-04-01

    An ensemble of seven regional climate models (RCM) included in the European CLARIS-LPB project (A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin) are used to study how some features related to climatic extremes are projected to be changed by the end of XXIst century. These RCMs are forced by different IPCC-AR4 global climate models (IPSL, ECHAM5 and HadCM3), covering three different 30-year periods: present (1960-1990), near future (2010-2040) and distant future (2070-2100), with 50km of horizontal resolution. These regional climate models have previously been forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis, in a consistent procedure with CORDEX (A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) initiative for the South-America domain. The analysis shows a good agreement among them and the available observational databases to describe the main features of the mean climate of the continent. Here we focus our analysis on some topics of interest related to extreme events, such as the development of diagnostics related to dry-spells length, the structure of the frequency distribution functions over several subregions defined by more or less homogeneous climatic conditions (four sub-basins over the La Plata Basin, the southern part of the Amazon basin, Northeast Brazil, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)), the structure of the annual cycle and their main features and relation with the length of the seasons, or the frequency of anomalous hot or cold events. One shortcoming that must be considered is the lack of observational databases with both time and spatial frequency to validate model outputs. At the same time, one challenging issue of this study is the regional modelling description of a continent where a huge variety of climates are present, from desert to mountain conditions, and from tropical to subtropical regimes. Another basic objective of this preliminary work is also to obtain a measure of the spread among

  16. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-06-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  17. Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Androulidakis, Yannis S.; Kombiadou, Katerina D.; Makris, Christos V.; Baltikas, Vassilis N.; Krestenitis, Yannis N.

    2015-09-01

    The trends of storm surge extremes in the Mediterranean Sea for a period of 150 years (1951-2100) are explored, using a high-resolution storm surge model. Numerical simulations are forced by the output of regional climate simulations with RegCM3, which uses IPCC's historical data on greenhouse gasses emissions for the (past) period 1951-2000, and IPCC's A1B climate scenario for the (future) period 2001-2100. Comparisons between observations and modeling results show good agreement and confirm the ability of our model to estimate the response of the sea surface to future climatic conditions. We investigate the future trends, the variability and frequency of local extremes and the main forcing mechanisms that can induce strong surges in the Mediterranean region. Our results support that there is a general decreasing trend in storminess under the considered climate scenario, mostly related to the frequency of local peaks and the duration and spatial coverage of the storm surges. The northward shift in the location of storm tracks is a possible reason for this storminess attenuation, especially over areas where the main driving factor of extreme events is the inverted barometer effect. However, the magnitudes of sea surface elevation extremes may increase in several Mediterranean sub-regions, i.e., Southern Adriatic, Balearic and Tyrrhenian Seas, during the 21st century. There are clear distinctions in the contributions of winds and pressure fields to the sea level height for various regions of the Mediterranean Sea, as well as on the seasonal variability of extreme values; the Aegean and Adriatic Seas are characteristic examples, where high surges are predicted to be mainly induced by low pressure systems and favorable winds, respectively.

  18. Estimating the influence of vegetation on net infiltration under future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stothoff, S. A.

    2005-12-01

    Performance assessments of the proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, are sensitive to the net infiltration passing the root zone above the repository, an area of roughly 5 km2. The area of interest has a semiarid climate, ten washes in rugged topography, and shallow soils overlying fractured bedrock composed of silicic volcanic tuff. Mean annual net infiltration is uncertain but constrained under current climatic conditions, based on modeling and observations. Performance assessments that consider periods of one or more glacial cycles must address net infiltration under wetter and cooler future climatic conditions. Potential evapotranspiration under current climatic conditions is sufficiently large relative to mean annual precipitation that numerical simulators are relatively insensitive to how evapotranspiration is implemented in the model. Water passes from soil into the bedrock only over short periods while the soil is wet following large storms. Under wetter and cooler climatic conditions, the representation of evapotranspiration may be more important, particularly the component handling plant uptake. Plant uptake models from the crop science literature assume that the plants have a predictable growth pattern over a growing season and predictable rooting patterns. These assumptions, reasonable for agricultural situations with annual crops in deep soil, may be questionable or difficult to parameterize when considering uptake from long-lived shrubs in semiarid climates with shallow soils and strong interannual variation in rainfall. An adaptive vegetation model is proposed that allows vegetation to respond to environmental influences. The adaptive model allocates roots according to uptake, which is mediated by the environment, within limits set by genetic preferences. The model allows growth in wet periods and dieback in dry periods, and allocates roots within the bedrock fractures to the depth supported by moisture availability. Estimated mean

  19. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  20. Futures Conditional.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Theobald, Robert

    The readings presented here are designed to help the reader perceive the future more vividly. Part one of the book suggests the various ways in which the future can be seen; it includes science fiction and the views of various analysts as to what the future holds. Part two collects printed materials about the future from various sources, including…

  1. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  2. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. PMID:26048558

  3. Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Beer, W Nicholas; Anderson, James J

    2013-08-01

    We projected effects of mid-21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid-21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams. PMID:23640715

  4. Future climate impact on unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in Brussels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet

    2015-04-01

    Belgium is one of the several countries in Europe where air quality levels of different pollutants such as ozone, NOx, and Particulate Matter (PM) still exceed the prescribed European norms multiple times a year (EEA, 2014). These pollution peaks have a great impact on health and environment, in particular in large cities and urban environments. It is well known that observed concentrations of air pollutants are strongly influenced by emissions and meteorological conditions and therefore is sensitive to climate change. As the effects of global climate change are increasingly felt in Belgium, policy makers express growing interest in quantifying its effect on air pollution and the effort required to meet the air quality targets in the next years and decennia (Lauwaet et al., 2014). In this study, two different stability indices are calculated for a 9-year period using present (1991-1999) and future (2047-2055) climate data that has been obtained from a dynamically downscaling of Global Climate Model data from the Arpège model using the ALARO model at 4 km spatial resolution. The ALARO model is described in detail in previous validation studies from De Troch et al. (2013) and Hamdi et al. (2013). The first index gives a measure of the horizontal and vertical transport of nonreactive pollutants in stable atmospheric conditions and has been proposed and tested by Termonia and Quinet (2004). It gives a characteristic length scale l which is the ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In this way low values for l in the lower part of the boundary layer during an extended time span of 12 hours, correspond to calm situations and a stable atmosphere and thus indicate unfavorable conditions for the dispersion of air pollution. This transport index is similar to an index used in an old Pasquill-type scheme but is more convenient to use to detect the strongest pollution peaks. The well known Pasquill classes are also calculated in order to

  5. : “Developing Regional Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas”

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global climate models (GCMs) are currently used to obtain information about future changes in the large-scale climate. However, such simulations are typically done at coarse spatial resolutions, with model grid boxes on the order of 100 km on a horizontal side. Therefore, techniq...

  6. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  7. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions. PMID:26351797

  8. Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Renssen, H.; Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Odada, E.; Bouwer, L. M.; Goosse, H.

    2006-10-01

    A comparative analysis of global river basins shows that some river discharges are more sensitive to future climate change for the coming century than to natural climate variability over the last 9000 years. In these basins (Ganges, Mekong, Volta, Congo, Amazon, Murray-Darling, Rhine, Oder, Yukon) future discharges increase by 6-61%. These changes are of similar magnitude to changes over the last 9000 years. Some rivers (Nile, Syr Darya) experienced strong reductions in discharge over the last 9000 years (17-56%), but show much smaller responses to future warming. The simulation results for the last 9000 years are validated with independent proxy data.

  9. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  10. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  11. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  12. Patterns of wildfires and emissions under future climate conditions across the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawbaker, T. J.; Zhu, Z.; Finney, M.; Riley, K. L.; Jolly, W. M.; Keane, R. E.; Reinhardt, E.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to result in increased wildfire occurrence and greenhouse gas emissions in the conterminous United States. To better understand potential changes and their impacts, we asked: How might such expected changes vary over space and time in the conterminous United States, and across different climate-change scenarios? We quantified baseline patterns of burned area and emissions using burn scars from 2001-2008. Then, we developed a simulation model to assess the influence of climate change on patterns of wildfire ignitions, spread, and emissions. The simulation model was calibrated using historic fire, weather, and climate data and then used to generate projections under the A1B, A2, and B1 climate-change scenarios. We defined typical fire years and extreme fire years as the 50th and 95th percentile of decadal area burned or emissions. Then, we evaluated simulated changes in burned area and emissions among the 2001-2010 and 2041-2050 decades. Across the conterminous United States, our simulations results showed that during a typical fire year, area burned increased 25-52% from 15,700 km2 and emissions increased 20-48% from a baseline level of 56.0 TgCO2-eq. Extreme fire years in the 2041-2050 decade were more extreme than in the baseline period, and area burned increased 65-85% from 31,700 km2 and emissions increased 49-142% from 92.7 TgCO2-eq. Projected changes in fire occurrence and emissions were minimal for the Great Plains, but substantial for the West and certain ecoregions in the East. These results suggest that future wildfire activities could play a larger role in terms of socioeconomic risks and the health and productivity of ecosystems, and that efforts designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will compete with potential carbon losses due to climate-driven increases in wildfire occurrence.

  13. Future Climate Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    James Houseworth

    2001-10-12

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

  14. The role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance: possible changes under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Cheng; Pullinen, Iida; Andres, Stefanie; Carriero, Giulia; Fares, Silvano; Hacker, Lina; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Kleist, Einhard; Paoletti, Elena; Wahner, Andreas; Wildt, Jürgen; Mentel, Thomas F.

    2015-04-01

    Ozone (O3) is a phytotoxic trace gas in the troposphere where it is photochemically produced from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The dominant sink of O3 in the air over areas with dense plant cover is dry deposition on plant surfaces. However, plants can also contribute to photochemical O3 formation because they emit biogenic VOCs (BVOCs). In this study, the role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance was investigated by considering the following processes: O3 depletion by dry deposition on plant surfaces, O3 depletion by gas phase reactions with plant emitted BVOCs, and photochemical O3 production from these BVOCs. Furthermore, drought and heat stress were applied to the plants, and the stress-induced changes of plant performance and the subsequent changes regarding the tropospheric ozone balance were investigated. Dry deposition of O3 in unstressed plants was dominated by O3 uptake through the plants stomata with negligible losses on cuticle and stem. For strong BVOC emitters, O3 destruction by gas phase reactions with BVOCs was significant at low NOx conditions. Switching from low NOx to high NOx conditions led to O3 production. A ratio of O3 formation rates over BVOC loss rates was measured for α-pinene as single BVOC and for BVOC mixtures emitted from real plants. For O3 formation under BVOC limited conditions, this ratio was in the range of 2-3 ppb/ppb. The ratio of O3 uptake/BVOC emission reflects the capability of a plant as a potential source of O3, while NOx concentrations and the BVOC/NOx ratio determine whether the emitted BVOCs act as an additional sink or a source of O3. O3 uptake rates and BVOC emission rates are affected by environmental variables such as temperature, light intensity and stresses to plants. The impacts of these variables on the two processes are different and thus the capability of a plant to be a source of O3 is also affected. As future climate change will bring more and intense heat waves and

  15. Wildfire Impacts Upon US Air Quality for Current and Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Tao, I.; Avise, J. C.; Stavros, E. N.; Strand, T. T.; McKenzie, D.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires can have an important impact on regional air quality as they are large and intermittent sources of primary particulates, secondary aerosols, and ozone precursors. As part of an ongoing analysis on the effects of global change upon US air quality, we report results for current and future decade simulations of the inter-relationship among climate change, wildfires and air quality. The results are reported for the Northwest, Southwest, and Central Rockies regions of the US. Meteorological fields from the ECHAM5 global climate model for the IPCC A1B scenario were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, a stochastic fire occurrence model, Fire Simulation Builder (FSB), and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone and aerosol concentrations. Simulations were completed for two nested domains covering most of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America at 220 km horizontal resolution (hemispheric domain) and covering the continental US at 36 km resolution (CONUS). Sensitivity studies were conducted for representative summer periods with fire occurrence generated from FSB within the current (1995-2004) and future decade (2045-2054) and using current decade historical fire data obtained from the Bureau of Land Management Database. Results are reported in terms of the effects of global change upon fire occurrence, fire plume transport and PM and ozone pollutant levels.

  16. Diverse seed banks favour adaptation of microalgal populations to future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Kremp, Anke; Oja, Johanna; LeTortorec, Anniina H; Hakanen, Päivi; Tahvanainen, Pia; Tuimala, Jarno; Suikkanen, Sanna

    2016-02-01

    Selection of suitable genotypes from diverse seed banks may help phytoplankton populations to cope with environmental changes. This study examines whether the high genotypic diversity found in the Baltic cyst pool of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii is coupled to phenotypic variability that could aid short-term adaptation. Growth rates, cellular toxicities and bioluminescence of 34 genetically different clones isolated from cyst beds of four Baltic bloom sites were determined in batch culture experiments along temperature and salinity gradients covering present and future conditions in the Baltic Sea. For all parameters a significant effect of genotype on the response to temperature and salinity changes was identified. General or site-specific effects of the two factors remained minor. Clones thriving at future conditions were different from the best performing at present conditions, suggesting that genotypic shifts may be expected in the future. Increased proportions of highly potent saxitoxin were observed as a plastic response to temperature increase, indicating a potential for higher toxicity of future blooms. The observed standing variation in Baltic seed banks of A. ostenfeldii suggests that the population is likely to persist under environmental change. PMID:26913820

  17. Future Climate Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

  18. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  19. Catchment scale modelling of changes in pesticide leaching under present and future climate conditions. Demonstrated for two cases in Denmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Keur, P.; Henriksen, H.; Sonnenborg, T.; van Roosmalen, L.; Rosenbom, A. E.; Olesen, J. E.; Kjaer, J.; Jørgensen, L. N.; Christensen, O. B.

    2011-12-01

    A catchment scale model MACRO-MIKE SHE is applied for simulating changes in pesticide concentrations to the aquatic environment. The MACRO model is used to model the effect of changes in climate and pesticide management on pesticide leaching from the unsaturated zone and simulated percolation as well as solute flow is propagated to the MIKE SHE model. The intensity based bias correction method for converting from Regional Climate Modelling data to hydrological input data is the most appropriate method as it best reflects changes in rainfall intensity, and thus also in intensity for MACRO simulated percolation and solute flow. Results show that increased percolation simulated by the MACRO model and propagated to the MIKE SHE model nearly all ends up in increased drainage to the river. Further, pesticide solute entering the saturated zone (SZ) is mainly leaving SZ via drainage (85-94%), base flow (3.8-11.3%) and overland flow (0-3.1 %). Mean concentrations in groundwater (SZ) increase by 30-99% for one type of herbicide under future climatic conditions, whereas mean concentrations decrease for two other types by app. 93 and 91 % respectively. Future climatic conditions lead to higher concentrations in surface water for the first type of herbicides, but to decreased concentrations for the another type of herbicide and insecticide. It is overall concluded that an integrated catchment scale modeling approach is essential for pesticide fate simulation taking account of all possible hydrologic pathways.

  20. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J. J.; Du, M.; McBean, E. A.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.

    2014-08-01

    Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr-1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  1. Grain protein concentration and harvestable protein under future climate conditions. A study of 108 spring barley accessions.

    PubMed

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine H; Gislum, René; Jørgensen, Johannes R; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Stockmarr, Anders; Jørgensen, Rikke B

    2016-04-01

    In the present study a set of 108 spring barley (H. vulgareL.) accessions were cultivated under predicted future levels of temperature and [CO2] as single factors and in combination (IPCC, AR5, RCP8.5). Across all genotypes, elevated [CO2] (700 ppm day/night) slightly decreased protein concentration by 5%, while elevated temperature (+5 °C day/night) substantially increased protein concentration by 29%. The combined treatment increased protein concentration across accessions by 8%. This was an increase less than predicted from strictly additive effects of the individual treatments. Despite the increase in grain protein concentration, the decrease in grain yield at combined elevated temperature and elevated [CO2] resulted in 23% less harvestable protein. There was variation in the response of the 108 accessions, which might be exploited to at least maintain if not increase harvestable grain protein under future climate change conditions. PMID:26889013

  2. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  3. Comparison of 3 coupled models in the North Sea region under todays and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Birgit; Bülow, Katharina; Dieterich, Christian; Heinrich, Hartmut; Hüttl-Kabus, Sabine; Mayer, Bernhard; Meier, Markus; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Narayan, Nikesh; Pohlmann, Thomas; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Sein, Dmitry; Su, Jian

    2014-05-01

    Most of the common global climate models (coupled ocean/atmosphere ocean models) have too large spatial scales to be suitable in the North Sea area. Therefore either high-resolution global models have to be run or dynamical downscaling of the model-output has to be employed using regional models. Regionalized climate change simulations for the North and Baltic Sea are carried out with coupled ocean atmosphere models in the framework of the research program KLIWAS. The numerical simulations are performed by the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the Institute of Oceanography (IfM Hamburg). Output from the models is analyzed jointly with the Federal Maritime service (BSH) and the German weather service (DWD/SWA). Temperature and sea level evolution in all three models is much more similar than the predicted salinity changes. The spatial patterns of the salinity fields in the North Sea are the result of a complex balance of fresh water input from the rivers, discharge of low salinity waters from the Baltic, inflow of high salinity waters from the Atlantic and input from the atmosphere. The hindcast simulations for this parameter are similar at the basin scale in all three models but are showing different patterns at smaller scales. All models are predicting a salinity decrease towards the end of the 21 century (2070-2099) to (1970-1999), independent of these differences, but it is much more pronounced in the runs of MPIOM/REMO and NEMO/RCA compared to HAMSOM/REMO. All models agree on the fact of a major freshening of the Baltic Outflow, while the magnitude of the freshening and the affected area in the North Sea are represented differently. The models are showing a temperature increase in the order of 2 °C at the end of the 21 century. The areas affected by Atlantic inflow are showing smaller temperature increases due to the lesser warming in the Atlantic. The annual cycle is slightly perturbed

  4. Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present and projected future climate conditions: a models' intercomparison perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, V.

    2010-09-01

    We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several GCMs and RCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report on their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for present and (in the case of the GCMs) projected future climate conditions. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few data sets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta. This occurs in spite of common nesting of the RCMs into the same run of the same AGCM, and even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. We find consistently that, for a given model, increases in the resolution do not alter the net water balance, while speeding up the hydrological cycle through the enhancement of both precipitation and evaporation by the same amount. We propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. In the case of the GCMs, the span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are, surprisingly, comparable to those of the RCMs. Both RCMs and GCMs greatly outperform the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40

  5. Characteristic of blocking events over Siberia for the present and future climate conditions, and the implications for the regional climate in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, H.; Zhou, W.

    2010-12-01

    Blocking activity over Siberia is a crucial factor for initiating and maintaining severe cold events in East Asia, but limited studies have provided a detailed analysis on the impact of its changing characteristics on the regional climate, especially in South China. By using 60-year NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Datasets (1950/51-2009/10), where a winter season is defined as the 151/152 day period from Nov 1 to Mar 31, distinct characteristics of the blocking events and their downstream impacts for the present climate conditions can be assessed thoroughly. It is found that the blocking events persisting east of the Ural Mountains are generally followed by a cold air outbreak sweeping across various parts in East Asia. Specifically, the intense blocking events usually have large extension and they potentially result in persistent cold weather within the region. On the other hand, the blocking events west of the Ural Mountains are found to exert an impact only if it is of long duration and high intensity. The cold air pathways may be dependent on the geographic location of the blocking anticyclone. The active blocking season over the Urals is probably associated with more intense cold events extending southward and eastward to a great extent. On the contrary, the cold events in the winters of high blocking activity east and west of the Urals are often confined to the northern region. The preferred blocking location may be related to the wavetrain signal propagating eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean. Long-term variability of blocking activities shows a remarkable decreasing and weakening trend. This is perhaps reflected by a similar trend of the cold events in East Asia. Energetic and dynamical factors that are favorable and unfavorable for a specific blocking character will be explored. The explanation is accompanied with the simulation results of future climate conditions using the IPCC AR4 model outputs. The analysis is particularly valuable for enhancing the

  6. Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2016-04-01

    Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and

  7. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system. PMID:23787302

  8. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    An increased uptake of alternative low or non-CO2 emitting energy sources is one of the key priorities for policy makers to mitigate the effects of environmental change. Relatively little work has been undertaken on the mitigation potential of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHPs) despite the fact that a GCHP could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from heating systems. It is predicted that under climate change the most probable scenario is for UK temperatures to increase and for winter rainfall to become more abundant; the latter is likely to cause a general rise in groundwater levels. Summer rainfall may reduce considerably, while vegetation type and density may change. Furthermore, recent studies underline the likelihood of an increase in the number of heat waves. Under such a scenario, GCHPs will increasingly be used for cooling as well as heating. These factors will affect long-term performance of horizontal GCHP systems and hence their economic viability and mitigation potential during their life span ( 50 years). The seasonal temperature differences encountered in soil are harnessed by GCHPs to provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. The performance of a GCHP system will depend on technical factors (heat exchanger (HE) type, length, depth, and spacing of pipes), but also it will be determined to a large extent by interactions between the below-ground parts of the system and the environment (atmospheric conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics). Depending on the balance between extraction and rejection of heat from and to the ground, the soil temperature in the neighbourhood of the HE may fall or rise. The GROMIT project (GROund coupled heat pumps MITigation potential), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), is a multi-disciplinary research project, in collaboration with EarthEnergy Ltd., which aims to quantify the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal GCHPs. It considers changing environmental conditions and combines

  9. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C.

    2007-02-01

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the “state-of-the-art” of

  10. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  11. Markovian characteristics of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula under present and future conditions using ESCENA ensemble of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Franca, Noelia; Sánchez, Enrique; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Romera, Raquel; Gaertner, Miguel Ángel

    2015-08-01

    The study analyses the annual structure of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula through a second markov chain model based on the persistence concept under present and future conditions. The persistence of dryness can be considered as an indicator of drought, being useful for early warning drought systems. It can be studied as an isolated factor, here we focus the analysis on the probability of dry spells occurrence at each grid point of the domain by means of a two-state second order of Markov Chain model. Previous studies using this model along twentieth century observational data obtained successful results in the dry spells characterisation over several regions. First, the application of this theoretical model on three observational datasets over the domain, confirms the second order of markov chain characteristics of the observed dry spells. Then, the observational climate (1989-2007) EraInterim-forced regional climate model simulations from Spanish ESCENA project are successfully compared with those observational datasets results. Then, the study of climate change projections on the markovian behaviour is studied through the ECHAM5r2 global climate model and the regional models under present (1970-2000) and future (2021-2050) climate conditions. They indicate that the markovian characteristics of dry spells are kept in the future over the domain except some points in the South East coast. A decrease of the probability of occurrence of short dry spells (1-7 days) is obtained, while the longest dry spells (>12 days) are increased. These results are coherent with the analysis of the annual average of dry spells length.

  12. Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The Triatoma brasiliensis complex is a monophyletic group, comprising three species, one of which includes two subspecific taxa, distributed across 12 Brazilian states, in the caatinga and cerrado biomes. Members of the complex are diverse in terms of epidemiological importance, morphology, biology, ecology, and genetics. Triatoma b. brasiliensis is the most disease-relevant member of the complex in terms of epidemiology, extensive distribution, broad feeding preferences, broad ecological distribution, and high rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi; consequently, it is considered the principal vector of Chagas disease in northeastern Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distributions of all members of the complex, and evaluated the potential for suitable adjacent areas to be colonized; we also present first evaluations of potential for climate change-mediated distributional shifts. Models were developed using the GARP and Maxent algorithms. Results Models for three members of the complex (T. b. brasiliensis, N = 332; T. b. macromelasoma, N = 35; and T. juazeirensis, N = 78) had significant distributional predictivity; however, models for T. sherlocki and T. melanica, both with very small sample sizes (N = 7), did not yield predictions that performed better than random. Model projections onto future-climate scenarios indicated little broad-scale potential for change in the potential distribution of the complex through 2050. Conclusions This study suggests that T. b. brasiliensis is the member of the complex with the greatest distributional potential to colonize new areas: overall; however, the distribution of the complex appears relatively stable. These analyses offer key information to guide proactive monitoring and remediation activities to reduce risk of Chagas disease transmission. PMID:24886587

  13. Past and Future Climate Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J. )

    2001-10-01

    Climate change is again in the news. The failure of the recent sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) to agree on terms for the Kyoto Protocol the future of climate policy remains uncertain. It is important to be clear on where efforts need to be focused (in addition to how much effort is required, which would require a separate discussion). The recent paper by Hansen et al. has created some debate and controversy along these lines. In this paper, the authors argue that recent climate changes have been caused largely by non-CO2 greenhouse gases and that climate change over the next fifty years can be limited by focusing not only on carbon dioxide but on non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. This paper will present an overview of these issues. A few of these points were also discussed in a recent commentary in Science magazine and are not repeated at length here. The discussion below will first address attribution of past climate changes, the radiatively important substances that will drive future climate change, and the mitigation of climate change.Journal name is WRONG. Interface does not allow me to type in correct name. Correct name should be''Physics and Society''.

  14. Will anticipated future climatic conditions affect belowground C utilization? - Insights into the role of microbial functional groups in a temperate heath/grassland.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Michelsen, Anders; Sárossy, Zsuzsa; Egsgaard, Helge; Kappel Schmidt, Inger; Jakobsen, Iver; Ambus, Per

    2013-04-01

    functional groups in their utilization of recently assimilated carbon. Particularly the negative effect of the future treatment combination (CO2×T×D) on actinomycetes activity was surprising. By means of activity patterns of gram-negative bacteria, we observed the fastest carbon turnover rate under elevated CO2, and the slowest under extended drought conditions. A changed soil microbial community in combination with altered activities of different microbial functional groups leads to the conclusion that carbon allocation belowground was different under ambient and future climatic conditions and indicated reduced utilization of soil organic matter in the future due to a change of actinomycetes abundance and activity.

  15. Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Putnam, Hollie M; Gates, Ruth D

    2015-08-01

    Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm P(CO2)) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm P(CO2)) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms. PMID:26246609

  16. Projecting carbon footprint of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions with the integrated farm system model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Dairy farms are an important sector of Canadian agriculture, and there is an on-going effort to assess their environmental impact. In Canada, like many northern areas of the world, climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity. This will likely come along with changes in environme...

  17. Silvicultural thinning does not alter soil C and N stocks of a typical mountainous beech forest in Southern Germany under present and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tejedor, Javier; Saiz, Gustavo; Baumert, Vera; Dannenmann, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Forest management practices to use wood for energy production or production of industrial goods are usually thought to be neutral in terms of greenhouse gas balances. However, this applies only if silvicultural management is not reducing soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks on the long term. Beech forests on shallow calcareous soils cover wide regions of Central Europe and are frequently managed by thinning. Recently some studies have shown for these ecosystems that thinning can lead to an initial short-term opening of the N cycle and lead to losses of soil organic carbon in the first years after tree harvest. However, the medium- to long-term effects of thinning on soil C and N turnover and -stocks remained unclear. To evaluate if thinning reduces C and N turnover and stocks over a time scale longer than 10 years, an experiment was conducted at replicated sites in a typical beech forest in Southern Germany, where initial short-term losses of soil C and N due to thinning had been documented. The sites are characterized by different microclimates due to different slope exposure: North exposures represent a cool-moist model climate for present-day conditions, while the South exposures represent warm-dry model climate of future decades. Soils of untreated control plots and thinned plots were re-sampled 9-13 years after thinning and analyzed for C and N stocks in soil and δ13C and δ15N natural abundance isotopic signatures to investigate whether the short-term effect of thinning on C and N stocks and cycling was persistent also at a longer time scale. No differences in C and N stocks and isotopic signatures were found between control plots and thinned plots neither under cool-moist nor under warm-dry microclimate 9-13 years after thinning. This suggests that thinning is an appropriate measure with regard to maintaining soil C and N stocks if conducted at timescales of more than a decade. Results found for the S exposures imply that the resistance of the

  18. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  19. Climatic Conditions in Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kevan, Simon M.; Howes, John D.

    1980-01-01

    Presents an overview of research on the ways in which classroom thermal environment, lighting conditions, ion state, and electromagnetic and air pollution affect learning and the performance of students and teachers. (SJL)

  20. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  1. Projections of Future Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Cubasch, U.; Meehl , G.; Boer, G. J.; Stouffer, Ron; Dix, M.; Noda, A.; Senior, C. A.; Raper, S.; Yap, K. S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Brinkop, S.; Claussen, M.; Collins, M.; Evans, J.; Fischer-Bruns, I.; Flato, G.; Fyfe, J. C.; Ganopolski, A.; Gregory, J. M.; Hu, Z. Z.; Joos, Fortunat; Knutson, T.; Knutti, R.; Landsea, C.; Mearns, L. O.; Milly, C.; Mitchell, J. F.; Nozawa, T.; Paeth, H.; Raisanen, J.; Sausen, R.; Smith, Steven J.; Stocker, T.; Timmermann, A.; Ulbrich, U.; Weaver, A.; Wegner, J.; Whetton, P.; Wigley, T. M.; Winton, M.; Zwiers, F.; Kim, J. W.; Stone, J.

    2001-10-01

    Contents: Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Climate and Climate Change 9.3 Projections of Climate Change 9.4 General Summary Appendix 9.1: Tuning of a Simple Climate Model toAOGCM Results References

  2. State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

    PubMed Central

    Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow “Earth system” feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or “Charney” climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature. PMID:23918397

  3. CLIMATE FEEDBACKS AND FUTURE REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teixeira, J.

    2009-12-01

    Water vapor and cloud - climate feedbacks are two fundamental feedbacks in the context of climate change. Although more realistic in terms of water vapor, present-day climate models fail to properly represent the physical processes associated with cloud-climate feedbacks. Remote sensing from space of these small-scale processes, such as clouds, turbulence and convection, is notoriously difficult and is still not good enough in order to provide the necessary constraints that would lead to a better understanding of the climate system and to improved climate prediction. A Program on ‘Climate Feedbacks and Future Remote Sensing Observations’ was organized under the auspices of the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS). The goals of this Program were: i) To bring together scientists from different branches of the climate research community (theory, models, observations) to address key problems in the physics of climate feedbacks; ii) To promote the use of remote sensing observational data in the climate physics and climate modeling community; iii) To provide guidance on future research and future missions regarding the physics of climate change. The main conclusions and recommendations from this KISS Program will be presented in detail.

  4. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on climate extreme indices in a multi-model experiment under present and future conditions (GLACE-CMIP5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events can be directly influenced by land surface-atmosphere interactions. It is important to investigate how extreme events might change in the future and the role these interactions play in amplifying extremes. The data from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments (Seneviratne et al., 2013) provide a unique opportunity to examine the influence of soil moisture on extremes in transient climate simulations from a range of climate models. The extreme indices we use are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and contain a range of indices based on daily minimum and maximum temperature as well as daily precipitation. The ETCCDI indices are available from observational datasets, reanalysis and as well as CMIP5 runs. Hence, these indices are widely used and can be compared to other sources. In this paper, we analyze the effects of land surface feedbacks on the extremes and their trends in the different global climate models. Seneviratne, S. I., et al. (2013). Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. GRL, 40(19), 5212-5217. doi:10.1002/grl.50956

  5. Nonglacial rapid climate events: past and future.

    PubMed

    Overpeck, J; Webb, R

    2000-02-15

    The paleoclimate record makes it clear that rapid climate shifts of the 20th century are only a subset of possible climate system behavior that might occur in the absence of glacial conditions, and that climatic surprises could be a challenge for society even in the absence of significant greenhouse warming. PMID:10677461

  6. Nonglacial rapid climate events: Past and future

    PubMed Central

    Overpeck, Jonathan; Webb, Robert

    2000-01-01

    The paleoclimate record makes it clear that rapid climate shifts of the 20th century are only a subset of possible climate system behavior that might occur in the absence of glacial conditions, and that climatic surprises could be a challenge for society even in the absence of significant greenhouse warming. PMID:10677461

  7. Solar Influence on Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arsenovic, Pavle; Stenke, Andrea; Rozanov, Eugene; Peter, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Global warming is one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor, however natural factors such as solar variability cannot be neglected. Sun is a variable star; its activity varies in regular 11-years solar cycles. Longer periods of decreased solar activity are called Grand Solar Minima, which have stronger impact on terrestrial climate. Another natural factor related with solar activity are energetic particles. They can ionize neutral molecules in upper atmosphere and produce NOx and HOx which deplete ozone. We investigate the effect of proposed Grand Solar Minimum in 21st and 22nd century on terrestrial climate and ozone layer. The simulations are performed with different solar forcing scenarios for period of 200 years (2000-2200) using global chemistry-climate model coupled with ocean model (SOCOL-MPIOM). We also deal with problem of representation of middle range energy electrons (30-300 keV) in the model and investigation of their influence on climate.

  8. Climate Simulations of Past, Present and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1999-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  9. Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

    2014-12-01

    While a majority of global climate models project drier and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC (Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different water stress functions (WSFs) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentrations, the increased water-use efficiency (WUE) mitigates the sensitivity of ISBACC to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulations improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

  10. Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

    2014-08-01

    While a majority of Global Climate Models project dryer and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC Land Surface Model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent ThroughFall Exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different Water Stress Function (WSF) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentration, the increased Water Use Efficiency (WUE) mitigates the ISBACC's sensitivity to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulation improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

  11. Climate: Present and near Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avakyan, S.; Voronin, N.

    2009-04-01

    A novel radiooptical trigger mechanism is proposed in solar-terrestrial relations what allows revaluation of the role of the solar EUV/X-ray fluxes during flares and of the precipitating electron fluxes during geomagnetic storms. Our mechanism of influence of solar and geomagnetic activity on the formation of weather and climate changes consists of three stages. The first stage is an increase in generation of the microwave radiation which penetrates from the ionosphere to the earth surface. The microwave radiation arises from the transitions between Rydberg states which are exited by the energetic ionospheric electrons. The second stage is a change in the proportion of water vapour to water clusters caused by increased microwave radiation. The third stage is a change of the atmosphere transparency in the absorption bands of water vapour and clusters. The atmosphere transparency determines the fluxes of solar irradiance coming down as well as flux of the thermal radiation coming out from the underlying surface. These fluxes form the basis of the thermal balance and affect the weather and climate characteristics of the lower troposphere. This mechanism is involved into analysis of climate changes going on during the several past decades. It is supposed that climate during past decades (in the period of global warming)was determined by secular (about one hundred years and two hundred years) maxima of solar activity which took place in the middle of eighties. Since 1985 the total solar irradiance flux started decreasing with simultaneous decreasing of ionizing EUV and X-ray radiation. However the geomagnetic activity according to the aa-index kept growing till 2003. This growth (+ 0.3 % / year) was replace activity also started decreasing (- 6.7 % / year) only after 2003. Summation of contributions to generation of ionospheric microwave emission both for solar and geomagnetic activities places the data of crisis in atmospheric trends to 2000-2001. Since then the role

  12. Can the Cretaceous Inform Estimates of Future Climate Sensitivity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lunt, Dan; Loptson, Claire; Markwick, Paul

    2013-04-01

    Palaeoclimate data is increasingly being used to evaluate models used for future prediction, and to provide observational constraints on climate sensitivity. However, the applicability of climatologies older than the Pliocene (c. 3 Ma) for future sensitivity has been questioned. In particular, palaeogeographic boundary conditions which are different from modern (i.e. continental positions, mountain extents and height, ocean floor depth, ice sheet extent and geometry) will influence climate and climate sensitivity, but to an extent which is unknown. In this study, we use a modelling framework to explore the role of palaeogeography in controlling climate and climate sensitivity during the Cretaceous interval of 'greenhouse' climates (c. 145-65 Ma). We carry out GCM simulations at 'high' and 'low' CO2 through all 12 Stages of the Cretaceous, and investigate the evolution of mean climate and of climate sensitivity. We evaluate our findings by comparing the model results with observations, both temporal global signals and time-slice geographical patterns. By comparing the palaeo results with modern climate sensitivity predictions, the work allows us to evaluate which time periods within the Cretaceous are most relevant for determining future climate sensitivity, and therefore where palaeodata collection can most usefully be targeted. It also provides insights into the relationship between single-site estimates of temperature vs. global mean, and the evolution of temperature at single sites due to continental drift and paleogeographical change alone. Overall, we provide insights into how our planet operates on long (multi-million year) timescales, and assess the utility of observations of past warm climates for informing future climate sensitivity.

  13. Energy and future climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, J.A.; Scott, M.J.

    1987-06-01

    The ''greenhouse'' issue is a term used to refer to a physical phenomenon in which the presence of radiatively active gases in the atmosphere absorb infrared radiation escaping into space and thereby warm the surface of the earth. In the absence of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/), water vapor (H/sub 2/O), ozone (O/sub 3/), methane (CH/sub 4/), and nitrous oxide (N/sub 2/O), the earth's average surface temperature would be approximately zero degrees Fahrenheit rather than the 60 degrees F. that we observe. The greenhouse issue is a matter of increasing public concern because of the growing body of evidence that human activities are systematically altering the composition of the atmosphere. In 1800 the concentration of CO/sub 2/ was 280 parts per million volume (ppMv) (within an uncertainty range of 260--285 ppMv). In 1984 the average annual concentration measured at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii was 344 ppMv. The formulation of appropriate policy options to address the greenhouse issue depend on the accumulation of reliable information in four domains: emissions, atmospheric composition, climate, and consequences. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the current state of knowledge in the area of emissions. 30 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  14. Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as

  15. Large scale groundwater flow and hexavalent chromium transport modeling under current and future climatic conditions: the case of Asopos River Basin.

    PubMed

    Dokou, Zoi; Karagiorgi, Vasiliki; Karatzas, George P; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P; Kalogerakis, Nicolas

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, high concentrations of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), have been observed in the groundwater system of the Asopos River Basin, raising public concern regarding the quality of drinking and irrigation water. The work described herein focuses on the development of a groundwater flow and Cr(VI) transport model using hydrologic, geologic, and water quality data collected from various sources. An important dataset for this goal comprised an extensive time series of Cr(VI) concentrations at various locations that provided an indication of areas of high concentration and also served as model calibration locations. Two main sources of Cr(VI) contamination were considered in the area: anthropogenic contamination originating from Cr-rich industrial wastes buried or injected into the aquifer and geogenic contamination from the leaching process of ophiolitic rocks. The aquifer's response under climatic change scenario A2 was also investigated for the next two decades. Under this scenario, it is expected that rainfall, and thus infiltration, will decrease by 7.7 % during the winter and 15 % during the summer periods. The results for two sub-scenarios (linear and variable precipitation reduction) that were implemented based on A2 show that the impact on the study aquifer is moderate, resulting in a mean level decrease less than 1 m in both cases. The drier climatic conditions resulted in higher Cr(VI) concentrations, especially around the industrial areas. PMID:26564185

  16. Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

    2016-04-01

    In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  17. Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.

    PubMed

    Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-11-13

    Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO2 and climate change. PMID:26438284

  18. Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, David S.; Davis, Michael G.

    2010-09-01

    Questions about global warming concern climate scientists and the general public alike. Specifically, what are the reliable surface temperature reconstructions over the past few centuries? And what are the best predictions of global temperature change the Earth might expect for the next century? Recent publications [National Research Council (NRC), 2006; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007] permit these questions to be answered in a single informative illustration by assembling temperature reconstructions of the past thousand years with predictions for the next century. The result, shown in Figure 1, illustrates present and future warming in the context of natural variations in the past [see also Oldfield and Alverson, 2003]. To quote a Chinese proverb, “A picture's meaning can express ten thousand words.” Because it succinctly captures past inferences and future projections of climate, the illustration should be of interest to scientists, educators, policy makers, and the public.

  19. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

  20. Present weather and climate: evolving conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoerling, Martin P; Dettinger, Michael; Wolter, Klaus; Lukas, Jeff; Eischeid, Jon K.; Nemani, Rama; Liebmann, Brant; Kunkel, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter assesses weather and climate variability and trends in the Southwest, using observed climate and paleoclimate records. It analyzes the last 100 years of climate variability in comparison to the last 1,000 years, and links the important features of evolving climate conditions to river flow variability in four of the region’s major drainage basins. The chapter closes with an assessment of the monitoring and scientific research needed to increase confidence in understanding when climate episodes, events, and phenomena are attributable to human-caused climate change.

  1. When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

    PubMed

    Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2015-11-28

    Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. PMID:26460116

  2. The Future of Climate Science (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bishop, R.

    2010-12-01

    High Performance Computing is currently deployed in several centers for climate research, but not at the levels needed to achieve substantial success on a global basis, given the complexity of the problem. A quantum leap in capabilities will be necessary to handle next-generation climate models that integrate newly emerging sciences, high-resolution grids, and voluminous observational data from satellites and sophisticated ground devices. Dr. Bishop will discuss efforts to build an International Centre for Earth Simulation (ICES) based in Switzerland that takes an holistic systems approach, and that has the competence and resources to achieve new insights in this new decade, and is capable to globally influence public policy with respect to weather, climate, environment, disaster risk reduction and socio-economic development. On this progressively crowded and fragile planet, such a capability will be invaluable, Bishop believes, if not imperative, for our long-term survival. ICES could serve as a test-bed for large scale public and private development planning. Decision makers could ask ‘what if’ questions for major construction projects (such as China’s Three Gorges Dam), and then interactively evaluate alternative scenarios. Likewise, ICES could help uncover the possible unintended consequences of climate remediation and adaptation strategies, geo-engineering ideas, CO2 sequestration, deep sea drilling, etc. ICES would be a resource for building more resilient societies in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters (such as flooding, extreme weather events and volcanic ash clouds), and therefore of great consequence to our future well-being. It would ultimately play a major role in the education and training of policy-makers, the public, and future Earth Scientists - in conjunction with the current national and regional centers.

  3. Will climate change promote future invasions?

    PubMed Central

    Bellard, C.; Thuiller, W.; Leroy, B.; Genovesi, P.; Bakkenes, M.; Courchamp, F.

    2013-01-01

    Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the “100 of the world’s worst invasive species” defined by the IUCN, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity. PMID:23913552

  4. Will climate change promote future invasions?

    PubMed

    Bellard, Celine; Thuiller, Wilfried; Leroy, Boris; Genovesi, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Courchamp, Franck

    2013-12-01

    Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity. PMID:23913552

  5. Rainwater catchment system design using simulated future climate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Corey D.; Bailey, Ryan T.; Arabi, Mazdak

    2015-10-01

    Rainwater harvesting techniques are used worldwide to augment potable water supply, provide water for small-scale irrigation practices, increase rainwater-use efficiency for sustained crop growth in arid and semi-arid regions, decrease urban stormwater flow volumes, and in general to relieve dependency on urban water resources cycles. A number of methods have been established in recent years to estimate reliability of rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) and thereby properly size the components (roof catchment area, storage tank size) of the system for a given climatic region. These methods typically use historical or stochastically-generated rainfall patterns to quantify system performance and optimally size the system, with the latter accounting for possible rainfall scenarios based on statistical relationships of historical rainfall patterns. To design RWCS systems that can sustainably meet water demand under future climate conditions, this paper introduces a method that employs climatic data from general circulation models (GCMs) to develop a suite of catchment area vs. storage size design curves that capture uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Monthly rainfall data for the 2010-2050 time period is statistically downscaled to daily values using a Markov chain algorithm, with results used only from GCMs that yield rainfall patterns that are statistically consistent with historical rainfall patterns. The process is demonstrated through application to two climatic regions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific, wherein the majority of the population relies on rainwater harvesting for potable water supply. Through the use of design curves, communities can provide household RWCS that achieve a certain degree of storage reliability. The method described herein can be applied generally to any geographic region. It can be used to first, assess the future performance of existing household systems; and second, to design or modify systems

  6. Sensitivity of Mediterranean groundwater resources to potential climate futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wagener, Thorsten

    2014-05-01

    A large fraction of the Mediterranean water supply originates from karst aquifers that evolved through the dissolution of carbonate rock. Climate simulations indicate that the Mediterranean will experience a strong increase in temperature and a significant decrease in precipitation within the next 100 years. To be prepared, policy-makers need quantitative and reliable estimates of potential changes to karst water resources. In this study we present the result of a very first attempt to quantify karst water resources over the whole Mediterranean region. Instead of considering groundwater volumes, we consider the flux of water into the aquifer, called groundwater recharge, as a useful indicator for groundwater sustainability. We developed a process-based karst recharge model that is driven by large-scale meteorological observations or downscaled climate scenarios. Using a new metric for quantifying the sensitivity of recharge to climatic changes (termed recharge elasticity) we can explore the sensitivity of Mediterranean karstic groundwater resources to future climatic boundary conditions.

  7. Applying climate service in "The Future Okavango" (TFO) project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Kriegsmann, Arne; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    The Okavango River Basin with the world's largest inland delta is a hotspot of future climate change. The river originates in the rainy Bié Plateau in Angola, touches the north-western part of Namibia with its savanna woodlands and terminates in a delta situated in the Kalahari Desert in Botswana. Accordingly, the basins climate is characterized by changing environmental conditions along the river and by relatively high temperatures leading to pronounced evaporation fluxes. The annual hydrological cycle of the area shows two extremes: seasonal flooding alternates with dry periods influencing water levels of the Okavango River in downstream regions. As the region strongly depends on the water resource of the Okavango River, possible changes of the climate are of uppermost importance and interest, because they affect all components of the hydrological cycle and thus the lives of the people living in a region of such unique natural characteristics. The project "The Future Okavango" (TFO), which covers Angola, Botswana and Namibia, aims at an improvement of knowledge based land use management within the Okavango River Basin. An important aspect of TFO is the application of a trans-disciplinary approach by involving relevant regional stakeholders on different scales from the three countries and the support of the already well established communication between science and decision makers in the region. In order to develop strategies for sustainable land management in the Okavango River Basin, decision makers need high resolution climate change information for the future. To generate regional climate change projections, regional climate models are used to downscale simulations created by global circulation models. Climate projections, however, contain various uncertainties which have to be considered and estimated. In the framework of TFO, the Climate Service Center (CSC) delivers dynamically downscaled climate data sets and climate change information on a high spatial

  8. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  9. The ozone-climate penalty: past, present, and future.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, D J; Hu, Jianlin; Mahmud, Abdullah; Kleeman, Michael J

    2013-12-17

    Climate change is expected to increase global mean temperatures leading to higher tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in already polluted regions, potentially eroding the benefits of expensive emission controls. The magnitude of the "O3-climate penalty" has generally decreased over the past three decades, which makes future predictions for climate impacts on air quality uncertain. Researchers attribute historical reductions in the O3-climate penalty to reductions in NOx emissions but have so far not extended this theory into a quantitative prediction for future effects. Here, we show that a three-dimensional air quality model can be used to map the behavior of the O3-climate penalty under varying NOx and VOC emissions in both NOx-limited and NOx-saturated conditions in Central and Southern California, respectively. Simulations suggest that the planned emissions control program for O3 precursors will not diminish the O3-climate penalty to zero as some observational studies might imply. The results further demonstrate that in a NOx-limited air basin, NOx control strategies alone are sufficient to both decrease the O3-climate penalty and mitigate O3 pollution, while in a NOx-saturated air basin, a modified emissions control plan that carefully chooses reductions in both NOx and VOC emissions may be necessary to eliminate the O3-climate penalty while simultaneously reducing base case O3 concentrations to desired levels. Additional modeling is needed to determine the behavior of the O3-climate penalty as NOx and VOC emissions evolve in other regions. PMID:24187951

  10. The future of energy and climate

    SciTech Connect

    2009-08-04

    The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

  11. The future of energy and climate

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2011-10-06

    The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

  12. Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

    Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

  13. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections

    SciTech Connect

    Ashfaq, Moetasim; Skinner, Chris B; Cherkauer, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977 1999 in the historical period and 2077 2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boundary conditions. Bias correction is applied to the monthly time-series of SSTs so that the simulated changes in SST mean and variability are preserved. Our comparison of CAM3 simulations with and without SST correction shows that the SST biases affect the precipitation distribution in CAM3 over many regions by introducing errors in atmospheric moisture content and upper-level (lower-level) divergence (convergence). Also, bias correction leads to significantly different precipitation and surface temperature changes over many oceanic and terrestrial regions (predominantly in the tropics) in response to the future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. The differences in the precipitation response from SST bias correction occur both in the mean and the percent change, and are independent of the ocean atmosphere coupling. Many of these differences are comparable to or larger than the spread of future precipitation changes across the CMIP3 ensemble. Such biases can affect the simulated terrestrial feedbacks and thermohaline circulations in coupled climate model integrations through changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean salinity. Moreover, biases in CCSM3-generated SSTs are generally similar to the biases in CMIP3 ensemble mean SSTs, suggesting that other GCMs may display a similar sensitivity of projected climate change to SST errors. These results help to quantify the influence of climate model biases on the simulated climate change, and therefore should inform the effort to further develop approaches for reliable climate change projection.

  14. Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate.

    PubMed

    Vučetić, V

    2011-04-01

    Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia, and was selected for research of the effect of climate warming on yields. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer model (DSSAT) is one of the most utilized crop-weather models in the world, and was used in this paper for the investigation of maize growth and production in the present and future climate. The impact of present climate on maize yield was studied using DSSAT 4.0 with meteorological data from the Zagreb-Maksimir station covering the period 1949-2004. Pedological, physiological and genetic data from a 1999 field maize experiment at the same location were added. The location is representative of the continental climate in central Croatia. The linear trends of model outputs and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test indicate that the beginning of silking has advanced significantly by 1·4 days/decade since the mid-1990s, and maturity by 4·5 days/decade. It also shows a decrease in biomass by 122 kg/ha and in maize yield by 216 kg/ha in 10 years.Estimates of the sensitivity of maize growth and yield in future climates were made by changing the initial weather and CO(2) conditions of the DSSAT 4.0 model according to the different climatic scenarios for Croatia at the end of the 21st century. Changed climate suggests increases in global solar radiation, minimal temperature and maximal temperature (×1·07, 2 and 4°C, respectively), but a decrease in the amount of precipitation (×0·92), compared with weather data from the period 1949-2004. The reduction of maize yield was caused by the increase in minimal and maximal temperature and the decrease in precipitation amount, related to the present climate, is 6, 12 and 3%, respectively. A doubling of CO(2) concentration stimulates leaf assimilation, but maize yield is only 1% higher, while global solar radiation growth by 7% increases evapotranspiration by 3%. Simultaneous application of all these climate changes suggested that

  15. Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate

    PubMed Central

    VUČETIĆ, V.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia, and was selected for research of the effect of climate warming on yields. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer model (DSSAT) is one of the most utilized crop–weather models in the world, and was used in this paper for the investigation of maize growth and production in the present and future climate. The impact of present climate on maize yield was studied using DSSAT 4.0 with meteorological data from the Zagreb–Maksimir station covering the period 1949–2004. Pedological, physiological and genetic data from a 1999 field maize experiment at the same location were added. The location is representative of the continental climate in central Croatia. The linear trends of model outputs and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test indicate that the beginning of silking has advanced significantly by 1·4 days/decade since the mid-1990s, and maturity by 4·5 days/decade. It also shows a decrease in biomass by 122 kg/ha and in maize yield by 216 kg/ha in 10 years. Estimates of the sensitivity of maize growth and yield in future climates were made by changing the initial weather and CO2 conditions of the DSSAT 4.0 model according to the different climatic scenarios for Croatia at the end of the 21st century. Changed climate suggests increases in global solar radiation, minimal temperature and maximal temperature (×1·07, 2 and 4°C, respectively), but a decrease in the amount of precipitation (×0·92), compared with weather data from the period 1949–2004. The reduction of maize yield was caused by the increase in minimal and maximal temperature and the decrease in precipitation amount, related to the present climate, is 6, 12 and 3%, respectively. A doubling of CO2 concentration stimulates leaf assimilation, but maize yield is only 1% higher, while global solar radiation growth by 7% increases evapotranspiration by 3%. Simultaneous application of all these climate changes

  16. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

  17. Marine storminess in the Mediterranean in future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.

    2009-09-01

    This talk reviews the analysis that is presently available on marine storms, their climatology and change in future climate scenarios. The cyclones that are responsible for the storms are analyzed using a regional climate model simulations of present day (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100, A2 and B2 emission scenarios) and the differences between northern Europe and Mediterranean are discussed. In the A2 and B2 scenarios the annual average storm track intensity increases over the North-East Atlantic and decreases over the Eastern Mediterranean region with respect to present day conditions,. The number of cyclones decreases in future scenarios throughout Europe, except over the central Europe and Mediterranean in summer, where it increases. This overall change pattern is larger in the A2 than in the B2 simulations. Wind-wave field changes are discussed considering a similar analysis. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean Sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  18. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-06-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  19. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  20. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  1. Uncertainties In Future Climate Over NYC Watersheds In AR4 Model Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Frei, A.; Pierson, D. C.; Mukundan, R.; Matonse, A. H.; Schneiderman, E.; Zion, M.; Lounsbury, D.

    2010-12-01

    The uncertainties in the future climate from a suite of Global climate models (GCMs), are studied for the west of Hudson (WOH) watersheds of the New York City (NYC) water supply for special report of emission scenarios (SRES A1B, A2 and B1). These WOH watersheds supply 90% of the water consumed by NYC. The uncertainties are studied seasonally for daily timescale for various combinations of meteorological variables. As the confidence in a GCMs future climate scenario depends on its ability or skill to simulate the present day 20th Century climate conditions (20C3M). The objective of this study is to bring out the uncertainties in future climate in relation to GCMs skill in simulating the 20C3M climate. We believe that the uncertainties in future climate of the region would be less for GCMs with high skill score when compared to GCMs with low skill score.

  2. Freezing of Martian streams under climatic conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carr, M. H.

    1984-01-01

    The valley networks of Mars are widely believed to have formed at a time when climatic conditions on the planet were significantly different from those that currently prevail. This view arises from the following observations: (1) the valleys form integrated branching networks which suggests fluid drainage, and water is the most plausible fluid, (2) the present atmosphere contains only minute amounts of water, (3) the networks appear to be more akin to terrestrial valleys that are eroded by streams of modest discharges than features that form by catastrophic floods, and (4) small streams of water will rapidly freeze under present climatic conditions. Climatic conditions at the time of formation of the valleys are studied based on the assumption that they were cut by running water.

  3. Impact of future climate change on the Orange River runoff

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haensler, Andreas; Hagemann, Stefan

    2010-05-01

    The 973.000 km² large Orange River catchment is the main drainage system of the southern African region, originating in the Drakensberg Mountains and reaching the Atlantic Ocean at the border between Namibia and South Africa. Due to its size, it is of major economic importance for the region, as its water is used for drinking water purposes, irrigation and the generation of electricity. Changes of the hydrological conditions in the Orange River catchment therefore will have a major impact on the region. For the future, the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR4) projected a severe decrease of rainfall for the southern African region. In combination with rising temperatures and changed evaporation rates, this is likely to have a substantial influence on the Orange River flow. One of the deficits of the general circulation models (GCMs) used in AR4 to predict future climate change is their coarse resolution, which often leads to an unrealistic simulation of rainfall patterns, especially over mountainous regions. Using the output of GCMs as input for hydrological discharge models therefore might result in unrealistic flow regimes. Applying a high-resolution regional climate model to downscale global GCM output over the region of interest has the ability to improve the simulation of rainfall substantially. In our study, we present projected long-term changes (up to 2100) of the Orange River runoff, thereby focusing on changes in the occurrence of extreme conditions like floods and droughts. As input for the analysis, climate data from a high-resolution long-term transient regional climate model projection at a horizontal resolution of 18km as well as from a GCM projection was available. These data were used to force the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) global hydrological discharge model (HD Model). The chosen simulation setup further allows us to draw conclusions concerning the impact of the climate model resolution on the projected runoff changes.

  4. Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

    2016-08-01

    Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to

  5. Numerical investigations of future ice conditions in the Baltic Sea.

    PubMed

    Haapala, J; Meier, H E; Rinne, J

    2001-08-01

    Global climate changes is expected to have an effect on the physical and ecological characteristics of the Baltic Sea. Estimates of future climate on the regional scale can be obtained by using either statistical or dynamical downscaling methods of global AOGCM scenario results. In this paper, we use 2 different coupled ice-ocean models of the Baltic Sea to simulate present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present. Two 10-year time slice experiments have been performed using the results of atmospheric climate model simulations as forcing, one representing pre-industrial climate conditions (control simulation), and the other global warming with a 150% increase in CO2 greenhouse gas concentration (scenario simulation). Present-day climatological ice conditions and interannual variability are realistically reproduced by the models. The simulated range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic in both models together is 180 to 420 x 10(3) km2 in the control simulation and 45 to 270 x 10(3) km2 in the scenario simulation. The range of the maximum annual ice thickness is from 32 to 96 cm and from 11 to 60 cm in the control and scenario simulations, respectively. In contrast to earlier estimates, sea ice is still formed every winter in the Northern Bothnian Bay and in the most Eastern parts of the Gulf of Finland. Overall, the simulated changes of quantities such as ice extent and ice thickness, as well as their interannual variations are relatively similar in both models, which is remarkable, because the 2 coupled ice-ocean model systems have been developed independently. This increases the reliability of future projections of ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. PMID:11697256

  6. Evaluative Conditioning: Recent Developments and Future Directions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gast, Anne; Gawronski, Bertram; De Houwer, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Evaluative conditioning (EC) is generally considered to be one of the routes via which likes and dislikes are acquired. We identify recent trends in EC research and speculate about the topics that will dominate future research on EC. Many of the recent developments in EC research were shaped by functional definitions of EC that refer only to…

  7. Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...

  8. Future of Condition Based Maintenance at Stennis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, Cory A.; Smith, Joshua W.; Ladner, Gina H.; Killam, Mike

    2015-01-01

    This study seeks to understand the current state of condition based maintenance (CBM) at Stennis Space Center and set a bench mark for the future expansion of the CBM program. Condition based maintenance is the idea of maintaining an asset upon decreasing performance or when a failure is impending instead of at some arbitrary time regardless of condition. Special attention was paid to remote sensing and monitoring of assets around the center to cut maintenance costs and extend overall operational lifetime of those assets. It was found that 55 percent of the categories of assets which could actually utilize a remote CBM program are currently being partially monitored. CBM solutions that have been investigated and proposed for future deployment cover areas such as building integrity, oil analysis, power line and water pipe inspection.

  9. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  10. Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

    2016-07-01

    Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

  11. Glacier and hydrology changes in future climate over western Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winger, Katja; Sushama, Laxmi; Marshall, Shawn

    2016-04-01

    Glaciers are frozen fresh water reservoirs that respond to changes in temperature and snowfall. Concern is growing about the impact that changes in glaciers may have on water resources in regions such as western Canada that derive a lot of their summer streamflow from glacier melt. Given that RCM projections are an important tool and are increasingly being used in assessing projected changes to water resources, particularly due to its high resolution compared with GCMs, realistic representation of glaciers in RCMs is very important. Currently, glaciers are only represented in an extremely simplified way in the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). This simple approach of representing glaciers as static glacier masks is appropriate for short-term integrations, where the response of glacier to changing atmospheric conditions might still be small due to glacier response times and therefore the feedback of changing glacier extent on large-scale atmospheric flow conditions might be negligible. A new dynamic glacier scheme has been developed for use within CRCM5, based on volume-area relationships. Simulations have been performed with this glacier model and Land Surface Scheme CLASS for the 2000-2100 period over a domain covering western Canada. These simulations were driven by outputs from a CRCM5 transient climate change simulation driven by CanESM2 at the lateral boundaries, for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Preliminary results suggest significant decreases to glacier fractions in future climate. Though the glacier contribution to streamflows is found to dramatically decrease in future climate, the total streamflows did not show any dramatic decreases due to the increase in precipitation for these regions.

  12. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  13. Simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. with four nested regional climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Arritt, R W; Coquard, J; Gutowski, W; Han, J; Iorio, J; Kim, J; Leung, L R; Roads, J; Zeledon, E

    2004-06-15

    We analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean-atmosphere climate models. Our primary goal is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, we compare RCM results to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, we compare RCM results to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western U.S., we find that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region, in both present and future climates. In present-climate simulations, the RCMs have biases in spatially-averaged simulated precipitation and near-surface temperature that seem to be very close to those of the driving GCMs. In future-climate simulations, the spatially-averaged RCM-projected responses in precipitation and near-surface temperature are also very close to those of the respective driving GCMs. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs are in many regions not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases.

  14. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today’s Climate Variability

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change. PMID:26750759

  15. Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979more » having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

  16. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today’s Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  17. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

    PubMed

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change. PMID:26750759

  18. Mapping climate conditions with materials corrosion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    The world's first comprehensive materials corrosion mapping system can predict the effects that climatic conditions have on the life cycle of products ranging from automobiles to bridges, according to Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Australian Industrial Galvanizers Corporation. Both jointly announced the system on 14 November.The mapping system, which incorporates conditions such as moisture, salinity pollution, and prevailing winds, can predict the corrosion of materials in any part of Australia, they said. Ivan Cole of CSIRO Materials Engineering said the mapping system even takes into account durability factors impacting on greenhouse gas contributions and soil conditions, making it a unique tool for Australian industry.

  19. Considerations for Future Climate Data Stewardship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halem, M.; Nguyen, P. T.; Chapman, D. R.

    2009-12-01

    In this talk, we will describe the lessons learned based on processing and generating a decade of gridded AIRS and MODIS IR sounding data. We describe the challenges faced in accessing and sharing very large data sets, maintaining data provenance under evolving technologies, obtaining access to legacy calibration data and the permanent preservation of Earth science data records for on demand services. These lessons suggest a new approach to data stewardship will be required for the next decade of hyper spectral instruments combined with cloud resolving models. It will not be sufficient for stewards of future data centers to just provide the public with access to archived data but our experience indicates that data needs to reside close to computers with ultra large disc farms and tens of thousands of processors to deliver complex services on demand over very high speed networks much like the offerings of search engines today. Over the first decade of the 21st century, petabyte data records were acquired from the AIRS instrument on Aqua and the MODIS instrument on Aqua and Terra. NOAA data centers also maintain petabytes of operational IR sounders collected over the past four decades. The UMBC Multicore Computational Center (MC2) developed a Service Oriented Atmospheric Radiance gridding system (SOAR) to allow users to select IR sounding instruments from multiple archives and choose space-time- spectral periods of Level 1B data to download, grid, visualize and analyze on demand. Providing this service requires high data rate bandwidth access to the on line disks at Goddard. After 10 years, cost effective disk storage technology finally caught up with the MODIS data volume making it possible for Level 1B MODIS data to be available on line. However, 10Ge fiber optic networks to access large volumes of data are still not available from CSFC to serve the broader community. Data transfer rates are well below 10MB/s limiting their usefulness for climate studies. During

  20. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  1. Radiative Forcing and Climate Response: From Paleoclimate to Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldeira, K.; Cao, L.

    2011-12-01

    The concept of radiative forcing was introduced to allow comparison of climate effects of different greenhouse gases. In the classic view, radiative forcing is applied to the climate system and the climate responds to this forcing, approaching some equilibrium temperature change that is the product of the radiative forcing times the 'climate sensitivity' to radiative forcing. However, this classic view is oversimplified in several respects. Climate forcing and response often cannot be clearly separated. When carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, within days, the increased absorption of longwave radiation begins to warm the interior of the troposphere, affecting various tropospheric properties. Especially in the case of aerosols, it has been found that considering rapid tropospheric adjustment gives a better predictor of "equilibrium" climate change than does the classic definition of radiative forcing. Biogeochemistry also provides additional feedbacks on the climate system. It is generally thought that biogeochemistry helps diminish climate sensitivity to a carbon dioxide emission, since carbon dioxide tends to stimulate carbon dioxide uptake by land plants and the ocean. However, there is potential to destabilize carbon locked up in permafrost and at least some possibility to destabilize methane in continental shelf sediments. Furthermore, wetlands may provide a significant methane feedback. These and other possible biogeochemical feedbacks have the potential to greatly increase the sensitivity of the climate system to carbon dioxide emissions. As time scales extend out to millennia, the large ice sheets can begin to play an important role. In addition to affecting atmospheric flows by their sheer bulk, ice sheets tend to reflect a lot of energy to space. If carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere long enough, there is potential to melt back the large ice sheets, which would add additional warming to the climate system. It is likely that these millennial

  2. Climate services: Lessons learned and future prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasseur, Guy P.; Gallardo, Laura

    2016-03-01

    This perspective paper reviews progress made in the last decades to enhance the communication and use of climate information relevant to the political and economic decision process. It focuses, specifically, on the creation and development of climate services, and highlights a number of difficulties that have limited the success of these services. Among them are the insufficient awareness by societal actors of their vulnerability to climate change, the lack of relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the inappropriate format in which the information is provided, and the inadequate business model adopted by climate services. The authors suggest that, to be effective, centers should host within the same center a diversity of staff including experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. The role and importance of environmental engineering is emphasized.

  3. Changes of Mediterranean cyclones in the future climate employing high resolution climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Kouroutzoglou, J.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.; Giannakopoulos, C. A.; Brikolas, V.

    2011-12-01

    A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of Mediterranean cyclones, including temporal and spatial variations of frequency of cyclonic tracks, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the MPI-HH regional coupled climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is employed consisting of the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO), the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ocean model (MPI-OM) and the Hydrological Discharge Model (HD Model). A 25 km resolution domain is established on a rotated latitude-longitude coordinate system, while the physical parameterizations are taken from the global climate model ECHAM-4. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The model results for the present climate are evaluated against ERA-40 Reanalysis (available through ECMWF), for the period 1962-2001. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with

  4. Predicting Weather Conditions and Climate for Mars Expeditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, P. L.; Lewis, S. R.; Bingham, S. J.; Newman, C. E.

    Weather and climatic conditions are among the most important factors to be taken into account when planning expeditions to remote and challenging locations on Earth. This is likely to be equally the case for expedition planners on Mars, where conditions (in terms of extremes of temperature, etc.) can be at least as daunting as back on Earth. With the success of recent unmanned missions to Mars, such as NASA's Mars Pathfinder, Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey, there is now a great deal of information available on the range of environ- mental conditions on Mars, from the tropics to the CO2 ice-covered polar caps. This has been further supple- mented by the development of advanced numerical models of the Martian atmosphere, allowing detailed and accurate simulations and predictions of the weather and climate across the planet. This report discusses the main weather and climate variables which future Martian human expedition planners will need to take into account. The range of conditions likely to be encountered at a variety of typical locations on Mars is then considered, with reference to predictions from the ESA Mars Climate Database.

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Forest Succession and Future Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohan, J. E.; Melillo, J. M.; Clark, J. S.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2012-12-01

    Change in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics with forest succession is a long-studied topic in ecology, and secondary forests currently comprise a significant proportion of the global land base. Although mature forests are generally more important for conserving species and habitats, early successional trees and stands typically have higher rates of productivity, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which represents carbon available for sequestration. Secondary forests undergoing successional development are thus major players in the current global carbon cycle, yet how forests will function in the future under warmer conditions with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is unknown. Future forest C dynamics will depend, in part, on future species composition. Data from "Forests of the Future" research in a number of global change experiments provide insights into how forests may look in terms of dominant species composition, and thus function, in a future world. Studies at Free-Air Carbon Dioxide (FACE) experiments at Duke Forest and other facilities, plus climate warming experiments such as those at the Harvard Forest, suggest a common underlying principle of vegetation responses to environmental manipulation: Namely, that shade-tolerant woody species associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi show greater growth stimulation than ectomycorrhizal-associating (ECM) trees which are more common in temperate and boreal forests (Fig. 1 of relative growth rates standardized by pre-treatment rates). This may be due in part to the role of AM fungi in obtaining soil phosphorus and inorganic forms of nitrogen for plant associates. In combination, these results suggest a shift in future forest composition towards less-productive tree species that generally acquire atmospheric CO2 at lower annual rates, as well as a competitive advantage extended to woody vines such as poison ivy. Due to higher atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, forests of the

  6. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China

    PubMed Central

    Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future. PMID:26371017

  7. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.

    PubMed

    Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

    2015-09-01

    China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future. PMID:26371017

  8. Extreme Rivers for Future Climates - Simulation Using Spatial Weather Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, Leszek; Kosierb, Ryszard; Iwański, Sławomir; Jelonek, Leszek

    2014-05-01

    In this paper an application of spatial weather generator for estimation of probability distributions changes of river flows for selected climate change scenarios and different time horizons are presented. The main studies for the Kaczawa river basin located in Southwest region of Poland are carried out. For the estimation of probability distribution river flow, daily data of SR solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and total precipitation were obtained for sixteen stations of hydrological network from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. In addition, daily data of flows from 6 closing water-gauges (partial catchments) were collected. Idea of flow simulation in the Kaczawa river catchment for future climate conditions given by different scenario shall be presented in the paper. First, on the basis of 25-years data series (1981-2005) for 16 stations of meteorological network within or around the Kaczawa river catchment basic climatology characteristics required by weather generator are computed. Then, spatial correlations between variables and stations are added to the characteristics. Next, on the basis of information coming from three climate change scenarios (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) for years 2040, 2060 and 2080 basic climatology characteristics are modified. Then, spatial weather generator SWGEN is used to produce 500 years of synthetic data for 16 stations, given time horizon and scenario. The year 2000 as the background of potential changes in river flow is used together with 500 years of synthetic data. Next, generated data are applied to hydrological model Mike SHE to simulate daily flows for closing water-gauges. The flow are evaluated with different temporal step and characterized by pdf functions. The application of spatial weather generator SWGEN combined with hydrological rainfall-runoff model (Mike SHE Ed. 2008) and climate change scenario, gives various possibilities to study changes in the river catchment coming up to 60

  9. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  10. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  11. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  12. Mapping model agreement on future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Knutti, Reto

    2011-12-01

    Climate change projections are often based on simulations from multiple global climate models and are presented as maps with some form of stippling or measure of robustness to indicate where different models agree on the projected anthropogenically forced changes. The criteria used to determine model agreement, however, often ignore the presence of natural internal variability. We demonstrate that this leads to misleading presentations of the degree of model consensus on the sign and magnitude of the change if the ratio of the signal from the externally forced change to internal variability is low. We present a simple alternative method of depicting multimodel projections which clearly separates lack of climate change signal from lack of model agreement by assessing the degree of consensus on the significance of the change as well as the sign of the change. Our results demonstrate that the common interpretation of lack of model agreement in precipitation projections is largely an artifact of the large noise from climate variability masking the signal, an issue exacerbated by performing analyses at the grid point scale. We argue that separating more clearly the case of lack of agreement from the case of lack of signal will add valuable information for stake-holders' decision making, since adaptation measures required in the two cases are potentially very different.

  13. Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryabchenko, V. A.; Karlin, L. N.; Isaev, A. V.; Vankevich, R. E.; Eremina, T. R.; Molchanov, M. S.; Savchuk, O. P.

    2016-01-01

    The St. Petersburg Baltic eutrophication model (SPBEM) is used to assess the ecological condition of the sea under possible changes in climate and nutrient loads in the 21st century. According to model estimates, in the future climate water quality will worsen, compared to modern conditions. This deterioration is stronger in the climate warming scenario with a stronger change in future near-surface air temperature. In the considered scenarios of climate change, climate warming will lead to an increase in the area of anoxic and hypoxic zones. Reduction of nutrient loading, estimated in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will only be able to partially compensate for the negative effects of global warming.

  14. Coupled Climate Model Appraisal a Benchmark for Future Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, T J; AchutaRao, K; Bader, D; Covey, C; Doutriaux, C M; Fiorino, M; Gleckler, P J; Sperber, K R; Taylor, K E

    2005-08-22

    The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has produced an extensive appraisal of simulations of present-day climate by eleven representative coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) which were developed during the period 1995-2002. Because projections of potential future global climate change are derived chiefly from OAGCMs, there is a continuing need to test the credibility of these predictions by evaluating model performance in simulating the historically observed climate. For example, such an evaluation is an integral part of the periodic assessments of climate change that are reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The PCMDI appraisal thus provides a useful benchmark for future studies of this type. The appraisal mainly analyzed multi-decadal simulations of present-day climate by models that employed diverse representations of climate processes for atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, as well as different techniques for coupling these components (see Table). The selected models were a subset of those entered in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2, Covey et al. 2003). For these ''CMIP2+ models'', more atmospheric or oceanic variables were provided than the minimum requirements for participation in CMIP2. However, the appraisal only considered those climate variables that were supplied from most of the CMIP2+ models. The appraisal focused on three facets of the simulations of current global climate: (1) secular trends in simulation time series which would be indicative of a problematical ''coupled climate drift''; (2) comparisons of temporally averaged fields of simulated atmospheric and oceanic climate variables with available observational climatologies; and (3) correspondences between simulated and observed modes of climatic variability. Highlights of these climatic aspects manifested by different CMIP2+ simulations are briefly discussed here.

  15. Future climate stimulates population out-breaks by relaxing constraints on reproduction.

    PubMed

    Heldt, Katherine A; Connell, Sean D; Anderson, Kathryn; Russell, Bayden D; Munguia, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate can fuel population growth. Tests of such population growth models and the mechanisms by which they are enabled are rare. We tested whether intergenerational increases in population size might be facilitated by adjustments in reproductive success to favourable environmental conditions in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Herbivorous amphipod populations responded to future climate by increasing 20 fold, suggesting that future climate might relax environmental constraints on fecundity. We then assessed whether future climate reduces variation in mating success, boosting population fecundity and size. The proportion of gravid females doubled, and variance in phenotypic variation of male secondary sexual characters (i.e. gnathopods) was significantly reduced. While future climate can enhance individual growth and survival, it may also reduce constraints on mechanisms of reproduction such that enhanced intra-generational productivity and reproductive success transfers to subsequent generations. Where both intra and intergenerational production is enhanced, population sizes might boom. PMID:27625161

  16. The Future Of European Floodplain Wetlands Under A Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Christof; Flörke, Martina; Geerling, Gertjan; Duel, Harm; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2010-05-01

    Floodplain wetlands are defined by their recurring inundation caused by flooding of adjacent rivers and often, the health of riverine ecosystems is dependent on the natural pattern of these inundation events (Junk et al. 1989). In the future, climate change may severely alter flood patterns over large regional scales. Consequently, besides other anthropogenic factors, climate change depicts a potential threat to river ecosystems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on floodplain inundation for important floodplain wetlands in Europe and to place these results in an ecological context. This work is performed within the SCENES project considering three different climate change projections for the 2050s. The global scale hydrological model WaterGAP is applied to simulate current and future river discharges which are then used to i) estimate bankfull flow conditions, ii) analyse all overbank flows by different inundation parameters, and iii) evaluate the hydrological consequences and their relation to ecology. Bankfull flow marks an important breakpoint as above this level generally flooding occurs which hydraulically connects rivers to adjacent floodplains and riparian wetlands leading to radical change in the biological processes. Bankfull flow is determined by flood frequency analysis whereas we make use of the partial duration series and an increasing threshold censoring procedure. Any flow greater than bankfull flow is considered a critical flow to investigate. Volume, duration and timing of inundation are regarded as crucial for sustaining floodplain habitats and their ecological functions. Finally, we combine the modelling approach with a scenario analysis which has become a common tool for assessing future trends of environmental problems, particularly those that are complex and poorly described. Precipitation and temperature interact differently at different locations leading to unfavourable changes in the river flow regimes with

  17. Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

    2000-01-01

    We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

  18. What role for volcanoes in future climate projections?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bethke, Ingo; Outten, Stephen; Thorne, Peter; Helge Otterå, Odd

    2016-04-01

    Despite ample evidence for volcanic impacts on climate, volcanic forcing has so far been excluded or poorly represented in future climate projections. From the analysis of a 21st century simulation ensemble with 60 plausible realisations of future volcanic activity, consistent with apparent activity over the past two millenia, we show that the projected range in global temperature inter-annual variability and decadal-scale trends is significantly enhanced when volcanism is taken into account. Chances for simulating a 10-year "global warming pause" increase by more than 50%, while the probability for obtaining anomalously strong warming surges is less affected. This study provides a probabilistic framework for including volcanic forcing uncertainty into climate projections, and thus may constitute a step towards improved future climate assessment.

  19. Planetary boundary layer energetics simulated from a regional climate model over Europe for present climate and climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez, E.; Yagüe, C.; Gaertner, M. A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a description of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) for current (1960-1990) and future (2070-2100) climate periods as obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) centered on the Mediterranean basin. Vertically integrated turbulent kinetic energy (TKEZ) and boundary layer height (z i ) are used to describe PBL energetics. Present climate shows a TKEZ annual cycle with a clear summer maximum for southern regions, while northern regions of Europe exhibit a smoother or even a lack of cycle. Future climate conditions exhibit a similar behaviour, with an increase in the summer maximum peaks. A detailed analysis of summer surface climate change energetics over land shows an increased Bowen ratio and decreases in the evaporative fraction. The enhanced sensible heat flux responsible for these results causes an energy surplus inside the PBL, resulting in increased convective activity and corresponding TKEZ. These results are consistent with temperature increases obtained by several other model simulations, and also indicate that changes in the turbulent transport from the PBL to the free troposphere can affect atmospheric circulations.

  20. Arctic Vegetation Change and Feedbacks under Future Climate (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goetz, S. J.; Loranty, M. M.; Beck, P.; Phillips, S.; Damoulas, T.; Pearson, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    Arctic surface air temperatures have risen at approximately twice the global rate, produce multiple climate feedbacks, e.g. via expansion of woody shrubs and trees into the tundra biome increasing surface net shortwave radiation due to reductions in albedo. To explore the feedbacks of future Arctic vegetation change on climate, we modeled vegetation type distribution across the circumpolar domain using machine-learning ecological niche models at moderately fine (4.5 x 4.5 km) spatial resolution. Vegetation was resolved into four classes of graminoids, four classes of shrubs, and two classes of tree cover. Comparison of observed and modeled classes under present climate revealed strong predictive performance. When simulating into the 2050s under scenarios of restricted tree dispersal and climate change, we found vegetation in 48-69% of our study area would shift to a different physiognomic class. Under an equilibrium scenario with unrestricted dispersal 57-84% of the area is predicted to shift to a different class. This latter scenario is supported by evidence of rapid shifts to larger growth-forms due to rapid colonization due to long-distance dispersal, expansion from refugia, and favorable conditions for establishment following disturbance like tundra fires and thermal erosion related to permafrost thaw. Distributions of lower-lying vegetation classes with sparse plant cover are predicted to contract in some places as larger shrubs and trees expand their ranges, but this outcome is mostly restricted to regions that do not have more northerly land masses to which vegetation could shift as trees and larger shrubs migrate from the south. We also estimated future changes in albedo, evapotranspiration and above-ground biomass, each of which would change substantially with our predicted widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation. In terms of climate feedbacks, the predicted increases in ET were relatively small, and predicted maximum total increases in biomass (1

  1. Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

    PubMed

    Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

    2016-08-01

    Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation. PMID:26104381

  2. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, H.J.; Chandler, M.A.; Robinson, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

  3. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: implications for future climate.

    PubMed

    Dowsett, Harry J; Chandler, Mark A; Robinson, Marci M

    2009-01-13

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative. PMID:18852090

  4. Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach

  5. Response of switchgrass yield to future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tulbure, Mirela G.; Wimberly, Michael C.; Owens, Vance N.

    2012-12-01

    A climate envelope approach was used to model the response of switchgrass, a model bioenergy species in the United States, to future climate change. The model was built using general additive models (GAMs), and switchgrass yields collected at 45 field trial locations as the response variable. The model incorporated variables previously shown to be the main determinants of switchgrass yield, and utilized current and predicted 1 km climate data from WorldClim. The models were run with current WorldClim data and compared with results of predicted yield obtained using two climate change scenarios across three global change models for three time steps. Results did not predict an increase in maximum switchgrass yield but showed an overall shift in areas of high switchgrass productivity for both cytotypes. For upland cytotypes, the shift in high yields was concentrated in northern and north-eastern areas where there were increases in average growing season temperature, whereas for lowland cultivars the areas where yields were projected to increase were associated with increases in average early growing season precipitation. These results highlight the fact that the influences of climate change on switchgrass yield are spatially heterogeneous and vary depending on cytotype. Knowledge of spatial distribution of suitable areas for switchgrass production under climate change should be incorporated into planning of current and future biofuel production. Understanding how switchgrass yields will be affected by future changes in climate is important for achieving a sustainable biofuels economy.

  6. Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System: Past and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overpeck, J.; Whitlock, C.; Huntley, B.

    2002-12-01

    The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that climate change as large as is likely to occur in the next two centuries will drive change in the terrestrial biosphere that is both large and difficult to predict, or plan for. Many species, communities and ecosystems could experience rates of climate change, and "destination climates" that are unprecedented in their time on earth. The paleorecord also makes it clear that a wide range of possible climate system behavior, such as decades-long droughts, increases in large storm and flood frequency, and rapid sea level rise, all occurred repeatedly in the past, and for poorly understood reasons. These types of events, if they were to reoccur in the future, could have especially devastating impacts on biodiversity, both because their timing and spatial extent cannot be anticipated, and because the biota's natural defenses have been compromised by land-use, reductions in genetic flexibility, pollution, excess water utilization, invasive species, and other human influences. Vegetation disturbance (e.g., by disease, pests and fire) will undoubtedly be exacerbated by climate change (stress), but could also speed the rate at which terrestrial biosphere change takes place in the future. The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that major scientific challenges include an improved ability to model regional biospheric change, both past and future. This in turn will be a prerequisite to obtaining realistic estimates of future biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks, and thus to obtaining better assessments of future climate change. These steps will help generate the improved understanding of climate variability that is needed to manage global biodiversity. However, the most troubling message from the paleoenvironmental record is that unchecked anthropogenic climate change could make the Earth's 6th major mass extinction unavoidable.

  7. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-07-01

    During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

  8. Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

  9. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  10. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    PubMed

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. PMID:27082446

  11. Global flood risks under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Ward, Philip; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel

    2013-04-01

    Worldwide major flood events result in both economic losses and large numbers of casualties. Recent global scale studies indicate that in many regions of the world discharge extremes are likely to increase under changing climate conditions. However, few studies have so far examined how these changes in climate conditions may affect flood risk (defined here as the probability of a flood multiplied by the consequences). In the current study we investigate the impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on flood extents and depths, and also assess the potential impacts on flood risk. The study is conducted on a global scale, thereby indicating in which regions of the world flood risk is likely to change most. To assess global food risk under changing conditions, we combined socio-economic data from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) framework of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) with high resolution maps of inundation depth (1 km). To this end, projections from a number of GCMs were bias-corrected and used to force the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB which simulates (amongst other variables) global maps with daily flood volumes on a 0.5 degree resolution. These time series were used to derive flood volume maps for multiple return periods, which were downscaled to inundation depth maps at 1 km resolution using a 1 km resolution DEM. Finally, these high resolution flood maps were combined with spatial datasets on future GDP and population density from the IMAGE model. Results are presented on both the global scale and at the country level. We believe that the obtained flood extend and flood risk maps can assist development agencies in planning climate adaptation investments that aim to reduce flood risks.

  12. Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

  13. Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.

    PubMed

    Duursma, Daisy Englert; Gallagher, Rachael V; Roger, Erin; Hughes, Lesley; Downey, Paul O; Leishman, Michelle R

    2013-01-01

    Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single 'hotspot' maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia's 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants. PMID:24386353

  14. Next-Generation Invaders? Hotspots for Naturalised Sleeper Weeds in Australia under Future Climates

    PubMed Central

    Roger, Erin; Hughes, Lesley; Downey, Paul O.; Leishman, Michelle R.

    2013-01-01

    Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single ‘hotspot’ maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia’s 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants. PMID

  15. NASA's Sentinels Monitoring Weather and Climate: Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Herring, David; Gutro, Rob; Huffman, George; Halverson, Jeff

    2002-01-01

    Weatherwise is probably the most popular newstand magazine focusing on the subject of weather. It is published six times per year and includes features on weather, climate, and technology. This article (to appear in the January/February Issue) provides a comprehensive review of NASA s past, present, and future contributions in satellite remote sensing for weather and climate processes. The article spans the historical strides of the TIROS program through the scientific and technological innovation of Earth Observer-3 and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). It is one of the most thorough reviews of NASA s weather and climate satellite efforts to appear in the popular literature.

  16. Using unknown knowns to predict coastal response to future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plant, N. G.; Lentz, E. E.; Gutierrez, B.; Thieler, E. R.; Passeri, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The coastal zone, including its bathymetry, topography, ecosystem, and communities, depends on and responds to a wide array of natural and engineered processes associated with climate variability. Climate affects the frequency of coastal storms, which are only resolved probabilistically for future conditions, as well as setting the pace for persistent processes (e.g., waves driving daily alongshore transport; beach nourishment). It is not clear whether persistent processes or extreme events contribute most to the integrated evolution of the coast. Yet, observations of coastal change record the integration of persistent and extreme processes. When these observations span a large spatial domain and/or temporal range they may reflect a wide range of forcing and boundary conditions that include different levels of sea-level rise, storminess, sediment input, engineering activities, and elevation distributions. We have been using a statistical approach to characterize the interrelationships between oceanographic, ecological, and geomorphic processes—including the role played by human activities via coastal protection, beach nourishment, and other forms of coastal management. The statistical approach, Bayesian networks, incorporates existing information to establish underlying prior expectations for the distributions and inter-correlations of variables most relevant to coastal geomorphic evolution. This underlying information can then be used to make predictions. We demonstrate several examples of the utility of this approach using data as constraints and then propagating the constraints and uncertainty to make predictions of unobserved variables that include changes in shorelines, dunes, and overwash deposits. We draw on data from the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States, resolving time scales of years to a century. The examples include both short-term storm impacts and long-term evolution associated with sea-level rise. We show that the Bayesian network can

  17. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  18. Predicting the future by explaining the past: constraining carbon-climate feedback using contemporary observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.

    2014-12-01

    The carbon-climate community has an historic opportunity to make a step-function improvement in climate prediction by using regional constraints to improve mechanistic model representation of carbon cycle processes. Interactions among atmospheric CO2, global biogeochemistry, and physical climate constitute leading sources of uncertainty in future climate. First-order differences among leading models of these processes produce differences in climate as large as differences in aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and fossil fuel combustion. Emergent constraints based on global observations of interannual variations provide powerful constraints on model parameterizations. Additional constraints can be defined at regional scales. Organized intercomparison experiments have shown that uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback arise primarily from model representations of the dependence of photosynthesis on CO2 and drought stress and the dependence of decomposition on temperature. Just as representations of net carbon fluxes have benefited from eddy flux, ecosystem manipulations, and atmospheric CO2, component carbon fluxes (photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, disturbance) can be constrained at regional scales using new observations. Examples include biogeochemical tracers such as isotopes and carbonyl sulfide as well as remotely-sensed parameters such as chlorophyll fluorescence and biomass. Innovative model evaluation experiments will be needed to leverage the information content of new observations to improve process representations as well as to provide accurate initial conditions for coupled climate model simulations. Successful implementation of a comprehensive benchmarking program could have a huge impact on understanding and predicting future climate change.

  19. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

  20. Imprint of external climate forcing on coastal upwelling in past and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tim, N.; Zorita, E.; Hünicke, B.; Yi, X.; Emeis, K.-C.

    2015-11-01

    The Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are the major coastal upwelling regions. The trade winds are driving these upwelling regimes located in the subtropics at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Here we analyse the impact of the external climate forcing, e.g. the greenhouse gas concentration, solar activity and volcano eruptions, on these upwelling systems in simulations of ensembles of two Earth System Models. The ensembles contain three simulations for each time period which cover the past millennium (900-1850), the 20th century (1850-2005) and the near future (2006-2100). Using a set of simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, enables us to detect whether the variability is driven internally or externally. Our analysis shows that the variability of the simulated upwelling is to the most driven internally and that there are no significant trends except for the scenario with the most dramatic increase of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  1. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A.; Janetos, Anthony C.

    2010-11-16

    Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve a climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.

  2. Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

    PubMed

    Jones, R A C

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. PMID:27112281

  3. Overland flow connectivity under different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanoch, Lavee

    2015-04-01

    The effect of climate conditions on overland flow connectivity was investigated in arid (mean annual rainfall 120 mm), semi-arid (mean annual rainfall 280 mm) and sub-humid (mean annual rainfall 620 mm) regions. In each of these regions a hillslope reference plot was established, in which soil properties and hydrological variables were measured. The results show that at the regional scale soil organic matter content and aggregate stability decreased with increasing aridity. Infiltration rate also decreased with aridity but overland flow increased. At the hillslope scale, at each of the regions overland flow decreased with increasing hillslope length which means that overland flow is not continuous and water losses increases with hillslope length. In order to understand the controlling factors of overland flow continuity the spatial distribution of soil properties, vegetation cover and overland flow generation mechanisms were measured along hillslopes. The results show that water contributing (source) patches and water collecting (sink) patches exist along the hillslopes, in accordance with the spatial distribution of shrubs. The conclusion is that overland flow connectivity at the hillslope scale is affected mainly by the size, the density and by the spatial distribution of shrubs. An application for preventing soil erosion in urban areas (parks), along roads and in cultivated areas is that planting vegetation in patches or strips is more efficient than all over the hillslopes.

  4. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

    PubMed Central

    Loeb, Susan C; Winters, Eric A

    2013-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern United States. The northerly distribution of Indiana bat summer maternity colonies relative to their winter distributions suggests that warmer climates may result in a shift in their summer distribution. Our objectives were to determine the climatic factors associated with Indiana bat maternity range and forecast changes in the amount and distribution of the range under future climates. We used Maxent to model the suitable climatic habitat of Indiana bats under current conditions and four future climate forecasts for 2021–30, 2031–40, 2041–50, and 2051–60. Average maximum temperature across the maternity season (May–August) was the most important variable in the model of current distribution of Indiana bat maternity colonies with suitability decreasing considerably above 28ºC. The areal extent of the summer maternity distribution of Indiana bats was forecasted to decline and be concentrated in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains; the western part of the current maternity range (Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio) was forecasted to become climatically unsuitable under most future climates. Our models suggest that high temperatures may be a factor in roost-site selection at the regional scale and in the future, may also be an important variable at the microhabitat scale. When behavioral changes fail to mitigate the effects of high temperature, range shifts are likely to occur. Thus, habitat management for Indiana bat maternity colonies in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains of the Southeast is critical as these areas will most likely serve as climatic

  5. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates.

    PubMed

    Loeb, Susan C; Winters, Eric A

    2012-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern United States. The northerly distribution of Indiana bat summer maternity colonies relative to their winter distributions suggests that warmer climates may result in a shift in their summer distribution. Our objectives were to determine the climatic factors associated with Indiana bat maternity range and forecast changes in the amount and distribution of the range under future climates. We used Maxent to model the suitable climatic habitat of Indiana bats under current conditions and four future climate forecasts for 2021-30, 2031-40, 2041-50, and 2051-60. Average maximum temperature across the maternity season (May-August) was the most important variable in the model of current distribution of Indiana bat maternity colonies with suitability decreasing considerably above 28ºC. The areal extent of the summer maternity distribution of Indiana bats was forecasted to decline and be concentrated in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains; the western part of the current maternity range (Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio) was forecasted to become climatically unsuitable under most future climates. Our models suggest that high temperatures may be a factor in roost-site selection at the regional scale and in the future, may also be an important variable at the microhabitat scale. When behavioral changes fail to mitigate the effects of high temperature, range shifts are likely to occur. Thus, habitat management for Indiana bat maternity colonies in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains of the Southeast is critical as these areas will most likely serve as climatic refugia

  6. Future droughts in Global Climate Models and adaptation strategies from regional present-day analogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2012-04-01

    Droughts are among the most impacting phenomena of a changing climate, affecting agricultural productivity and human health. They can furthermore interact with and amplify other climatic extreme events such as heat waves. Our analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble of GCM simulations identifies several hot spots of aggravating droughts in coming decades, such as the Mediterranean, parts of the Southern US and North East Brazil, which also compare well with increasing stress from heat waves. However, as we show by a comparison of drought indices, the exact pattern can substantially depend on the index choice. In some regions of the developing world which are particularly vulnerable to droughts, e.g. Central Africa, this uncertainty is further increased by a high disagreement between the GCMs. In a second step, we perform an analogue search which, for a given target region, identifies regions which under present-day climate show drought conditions that are similar to the projected future drought conditions of the target region. For example, the future conditions in the Mediterranean are found to be analogue to the present-day conditions in parts of the US, Central Asia or Australia. Information from web resources on climate change adaptation and agricultural practices for the identified similar regions are then assessed in the context of the target region as potential guidelines for adaptation. Thus combining the temporal and spatial dimension helps to transfer local climate adaptation knowledge to other regions, where it is expected to become relevant in the future.

  7. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

    PubMed

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

  8. DBP formation and disinfection under current and future climates - slides

    EPA Science Inventory

    How to predict and monitoring DBP formation under current and future climate is a challenge and important to water plant operations and water supply security. This presentation summarizes a system approach being developed at the EPA Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP).

  9. Impacts of urbanization on future climate in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Liang; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.

    2016-07-01

    Urbanization plays an important role in human-induced climate change at the regional scale through altered land-atmosphere interactions over urban areas. In this study, the impacts of future urbanization in China on climate are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results for 2050 show decreased latent and increased sensible heat fluxes over the urban area, therefore leading to higher surface temperatures and less humidity. Future climate projections reveal that urbanization produces strong warming effects, up to 1.9 °C at regional and local/urban scales, which is comparable to the magnitude of greenhouse gas forcing under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Greater urban warming effects are projected during night and summer, which can be attributed to the high heat capacity of built-up areas. The impacts of urbanization on precipitation show varying effects primarily in summer—both increases and decreases depending on spatial scale—related to both local moisture deficits and large-scale circulation changes. Urbanization could strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon in southern China in summer, and slightly weaken it in eastern China in winter. Due to these significant impacts, we suggest that urbanization should be included in model projections to provide a more realistic and complete depiction of future climate.

  10. Specifying Future Educational Needs in a Changing Political Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watson, Cicely

    To discuss the ways in which a planner can specify future education needs in a changing political climate, the author focuses on Ontario, and uses tables and enrollment projections as illustrations. The author notes that the issue of how much to spend on education is political, and observes that, in Ontario, the growing demand will be for…

  11. Impacts of urbanization on future climate in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Liang; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.

    2015-09-01

    Urbanization plays an important role in human-induced climate change at the regional scale through altered land-atmosphere interactions over urban areas. In this study, the impacts of future urbanization in China on climate are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results for 2050 show decreased latent and increased sensible heat fluxes over the urban area, therefore leading to higher surface temperatures and less humidity. Future climate projections reveal that urbanization produces strong warming effects, up to 1.9 °C at regional and local/urban scales, which is comparable to the magnitude of greenhouse gas forcing under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Greater urban warming effects are projected during night and summer, which can be attributed to the high heat capacity of built-up areas. The impacts of urbanization on precipitation show varying effects primarily in summer—both increases and decreases depending on spatial scale—related to both local moisture deficits and large-scale circulation changes. Urbanization could strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon in southern China in summer, and slightly weaken it in eastern China in winter. Due to these significant impacts, we suggest that urbanization should be included in model projections to provide a more realistic and complete depiction of future climate.

  12. Statistical Modeling of Low Flow Conditions based on Climatic Indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fangmann, Anne; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2015-04-01

    Regression-based approaches in climate change impact assessment may pose a practical alternative to the application of process-based hydrological models, especially with respect to low flow extremes. Extended durations and spatial dimensions allow for a quantitative assessment and exploitation of the interrelations between atmospheric driving forces and streamflow response during dry periods, and eventually for the prognosis of future low flow conditions based on climate model input. This study aims at using combinations of climatic indicators, quantifying a variety of meteorological drought characteristics, to model specific low flow indices, based solely on multiple linear regressions. The area under investigation is the federal state of Lower Saxony, Germany. Daily time series of climate and streamflow data pose the basis for calculation of a set of meteorological and hydrological indices, serving as regressors and regressands, respectively. Two approaches are being analyzed: a) a station-based approach, fitting a specific regression equation at each discharge gauge with sufficient record length, and b) a regional approach, enabling the estimation of low flow indices at ungauged sites and stations with minor record length. The station-based procedure is used for estimation of annual low flow index values from annual meteorological conditions. Subsequent fitting of distribution functions to the estimated values allows for the assessment of return periods of the low flow indices. The regionalization, on the other hand, is designed to directly estimate the shapes of the distribution functions by applying L-moment regressions, enabling a direct assessment of specific index values for the return periods in demand.

  13. PREDICTING REGIONAL ALLERGY HOTSPOTS IN FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS – PUTTING THE WHERE & WHEN ON WHEEZING

    EPA Science Inventory

    This research addresses both the effects and mechanisms by which current and future climate conditions affect the risk factors related to allergic airway disease in humans. Our intensive sampling of pollen production, output, and potency in ecologically distinct ragweed popul...

  14. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Freeman, Lauren A.

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100. PMID:26053439

  15. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Lauren A

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100. PMID:26053439

  16. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, W.; Gardelin, M.; Olsson, J.; Bosshard, T.

    2015-01-01

    As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  17. Catchment sensitivity to changing climate conditions: the importance of landscape characteristic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, C.; Karlsen, R.; Grabs, T.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K. H.

    2014-12-01

    The scientific literature is full of studies analyzing future climate change impacts on hydrology with focus on individual catchments. However, we recently found that hydrologic behavior and specific discharge vary considerably even in neighboring and rather similar catchments under current climate conditions and that these variations are related to landscape characteristics. Therefore we hypothesize that these landscape characteristics also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to changing climate conditions. We analyzed the hydrological response of 14 neighboring catchments in Northern Sweden with slightly different topography, land cover, size and geology. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV light model. Climate projections were based on 14 regional climate models (ENSEMBLES EU project) and bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach. Our simulations revealed that future spring flood peaks will occur much earlier and decrease by 13 to 32 %, whereas winter base flows will increase slightly. These changes are somewhat expected and mainly triggered by a projected increase in winter temperature, which leads to less snow accumulation on the ground. However, these values also highlight that there is a large variability amongst the catchments in their hydrological response to the same future climate conditions. For example, spring flood peaks in catchments without wetlands decrease by only 13 to 15 %, whereas catchments with wetlands show a spring flood peak reduction of 20 to 32 %. In addition to wetlands, we also identified lakes, peat soils and higher elevations as factors that seem to cause a stronger hydrological response to the climate change signal, whereas catchments dominated by forests, steeper slopes and till soils seem to be less strongly affected by a changing climate. Therefore, our results suggest that the sensitivity of catchments to future climate conditions is strongly linked to

  18. Including Impacts of Climate Change in Long-Range Forecasts of Future Tuolumne River Streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenward, T.; Crawford, N. H.; Dufour, A.; McGurk, B. J.; Monier, W.

    2011-12-01

    Future streamflow is assessed for the Tuolumne River, a representative watershed in Sierra Nevada Mountains in California that provides 85% of the San Francisco Public Utility Commission's water supply for 2.5 million Bay Area residents and water to 8000 agricultural customers and over 200,000 electrical customers of the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts. The Hydrocomp Forecasting and Analysis Model (HFAM) is a hydrologic simulation model which provides probabilistic inflow forecasts based on a continuous long-term simulation of a watershed driven by a historical meteorological database. The HFAM model is used to assess potential changes in the timing and volume of streamflow by driving the model with a long-term meteorological database that has been altered to represent the future climate in a specific year, for a given climate change scenario. In the Tuolumne, historical trends show increases to daily minimum temperatures but not to daily maximum temperatures. A static meteorological database that represents the current climate condition is generated by removing trends from historical data. Climate change scenarios for paired changes in temperature and precipitation were developed based on the range of predictions by global climate models. For each future climate condition, hourly temperature increases to the static database are calculated that are consistent with historical trends in daily minimum temperatures, while retaining a reasonable daily range in temperatures. Changes in future seasonal and annual probabilistic inflow forecasts are given for the Tuolumne River for each climate change scenario. The results show the importance of using probabilistic methods to assess climate change rather than mean values because impacts are more significant in low streamflow years.

  19. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  20. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios.

    PubMed

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P

    2012-10-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960-1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  1. The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

    2008-09-01

    This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  2. Historic and Future Response of Air Quality to Climate in the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Limaye, V.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Both process-based models and observational analysis show relationships between health-relevant air pollutants and climate variables. Here, we evaluate how observed patterns in the response of O3, NO2, and PM2.5 may change in the future, based on an integrated analysis of model simulations, ground-based measurements, and satellite data. Our analysis builds confidence in model performance, and highlights the potential of satellite data to inform climate-chemistry processes. In addition to evaluating model performance in calculating climate and/or air quality variables directly, we present an analysis of total derivatives of change of a chemical constituent with respect to individual meteorological variables. We characterize spatial and temporal variability of observed and modeled "response factors," and evaluate whether the relationships are likely to change under future conditions. Although a range of factors could affect future change in air quality response factors, we consider here meteorological changes and the secondary effects of increases in electricity demand. We focus on changing climate and electrical demand on air quality in the Eastern U.S. in summertime. Observed chemistry-climate responses from ground-based measurements and satellite data are compared with simulations from the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ is also used to evaluate future climate projections, selected for analysis from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulation archive and downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future electricity and emissions under a warmer climate are calculated with the MyPower model, based on region-specific building efficiencies and plant-by-plant electricity dispatch.

  3. Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

    PubMed Central

    Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

    2013-01-01

    Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g., phenology), space (e.g., range) and self (e.g., physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. PMID:22257223

  4. [Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of rubber plantation in China].

    PubMed

    Liu, Shao-jun; Zhou, Guang-sheng; Fang, Shi-bo; Zhang, Jing-hong

    2015-07-01

    Global warming may seriously affect the climatic suitability distribution of rubber plantation in China. Five main climate factors affecting rubber planting were mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of monthly, mean temperature ≥18 °C, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation. Climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 1981-2010, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 were analyzed by the maximum entropy model based on the five main climate factors and the climate data of 1981-2010 and RCP4.5 scenario data. The results showed that under the background of the future climate change, the climatic suitability area of rubber plantation would have a trend of expansion to the north in 2041-2060, 2061-2080. The climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 increased more obviously than in 1981-2010. The suitable area and optimum area would increase, while the less suitable area would decrease. The climatic suitability might change in some areas, such as the total suitable area would decrease in Yunnan Province, and the suitability grade in both Jinghong and Mengna would change from optimum area to suitable area. However, the optimum area of rubber plantation would increase significantly in Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong Province, and a new less suitable area of rubber planting would appear in Taiwan Island due to the climate change. PMID:26710636

  5. Modelling recent and future climatic suitability for fasciolosis in Europe.

    PubMed

    Caminade, Cyril; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana

    2015-01-01

    Fasciola hepatica is a parasitic worm responsible for fasciolosis in grazed ruminants in Europe. The free-living stages of this parasite are sensitive to temperature and soil moisture, as are the intermediate snail hosts the parasite depends on for its life-cycle. We used a climate-driven disease model in order to assess the impact of recent and potential future climate changes on the incidence of fasciolosis and to estimate the related uncertainties at the scale of the European landmass. The current climate appears to be highly suitable for fasciolosis throughout the European Union with the exception of some parts of the Mediterranean region. Simulated climatic suitability for fasciolosis significantly increased during the 2000s in central and northwestern Europe, which is consistent with an observed increased in ruminant infections. The simulation showed that recent trends are likely to continue in the future with the estimated pattern of climate change for northern Europe, possibly extending the season suitable for development of the parasite in the environment by up to four months. For southern Europe, the simulated burden of disease may be lower, but the projected climate change will increase the risk during the winter months, since the simulated changes in temperature and moisture support the development of the free-living and intra-molluscan stages between November and March. In the event of predicted climate change, F. hepatica will present a serious risk to the health, welfare and productivity of all ruminant livestock. Improved, bespoke control programmes, both at farm and region levels, will then become imperative if problems, such as resistance of the parasite associated with increased drug use, are to be mitigated. PMID:25826311

  6. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-09-01

    This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraints.

  7. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-06-16

    Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

  8. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-01-01

    This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.

  9. Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate

  10. Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

    2013-01-01

    Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

  11. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  12. Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling of regional climate in China: Present climate evaluations and future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Gao, Hongxia; Wang, Xueyuan; Wu, Jian

    2016-03-01

    Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling are two approaches to generate high-resolution regional climate models based on the large-scale information from either reanalysis data or global climate models. In this study, these two downscaling methods are used to simulate the surface climate of China and compared. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is cross validated and used to downscale the regional climate of China. Then, the downscaled historical climate of 1981-2000 and future climate of 2041-2060 are compared with that from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the European Center-Hamburg atmosphere model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and the L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the ocean, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR). The SDSM can reproduce the surface temperature characteristics of the present climate in China, whereas the WRF tends to underestimate the surface temperature over most of China. Both the SDSM and WRF require further work to improve their ability to downscale precipitation. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods produce future surface temperatures for 2041-2060 that are markedly different from the historical climatology. However, the changes in projected precipitation differ between the two downscaling methods. Indeed, large uncertainties remain in terms of the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes over China.

  13. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise P.; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A.; Janetos, Anthony C.

    2010-01-01

    Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m−2 (approximately 526 ppm CO2) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies. PMID:20921413

  14. Sustainability of pasta production under future climate in Central Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalla Marta, Anna; Baldi, Ada; Orlandini, Simone; Calanca, Pierluigi; Altobelli, Filiberto

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, the impact of future climate on pasta green water footprint (WF) was assessed. The model DSSAT CERES-Wheat was applied to simulate the production of rainfed winter durum wheat in Val d'Orcia (Central Italy), which provides the raw material for making traditional Italian pasta. The model was calibrated and validated for a 15-years period and used to estimate wheat yield and grain green WF. Further, the processing of grain for pasta making was analysed and taken into account for the calculation of the WF of final product. Then, the model was applied on future climate scenarios created with the stochastic generator LARS-WG, starting from a set of ENSEMBLES scenarios. The trend of wheat WF was analysed and the sustainability of the production of pasta in Central Italy was investigated and discussed.

  15. Climate Change and the Future of California's Endemic Flora

    PubMed Central

    Loarie, Scott R.; Carter, Benjamin E.; Hayhoe, Katharine; McMahon, Sean; Moe, Richard; Knight, Charles A.; Ackerly, David D.

    2008-01-01

    The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change. PMID:18648541

  16. Identifying future threats: impact of climate change on wheat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator and the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the reduction in grain yield related to drought stress is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering, that affects pollination and might result in considerable yield losses, is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought.

  17. Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliver, Eric C. J.; O'Kane, Terence J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2015-11-01

    The Tasman Sea is a hot spot of ocean warming, that is linked to the increased poleward influence of the East Australian Current (EAC) over recent decades. Specifically, the EAC produces mesoscale eddies which have significant impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the Tasman Sea. To effectively consider and explain potential eddy changes in the next 50 years, we use high-resolution dynamically downscaled climate change simulations to characterize the projected future marine climate and mesoscale eddies in the Tasman Sea through the 2060s. We assess changes in the marine climate and the eddy field using bulk statistics and by detecting and tracking individual eddies. We find that the eddy kinetic energy is projected to increase along southeast Australia. In addition, we find that eddies in the projected future climate are composed of a higher proportion of anticyclonic eddies in this region and that these eddies are longer lived and more stable. This amounts to nearly a doubling of eddy-related southward temperature transport in the upper 200 m of the Tasman Sea. These changes are concurrent with increases in baroclinic and barotropic instabilities focused around the EAC separation point. This poleward transport and increase in eddy activity would be expected to also increase the frequency of sudden warming events, including ocean temperature extremes, with potential impacts on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and biodiversity off Tasmania's east coast, through direct warming or competition/predation from invasive migrating species.

  18. Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

    PubMed Central

    Willis, K. J.; Bennett, K. D.; Burrough, S. L.; Macias-Fauria, M.; Tovar, C.

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records. PMID:23878343

  19. Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

    2015-06-01

    Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

  20. Snow-atmosphere coupling in current and future climates over North America in the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Sushama, Laxmi

    2016-04-01

    The influence of snow variation on climate variability over North America is assessed using the fifth generation of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). For this, we first carried out a suite of CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, whereby the snow was either prescribed (uncoupled) or allowed to evolve interactively (coupled) during the model integration. Results indicate a systematic influence of snow on the inter-annual variability of air and surface temperature throughout winter and spring seasons. In the coupled simulations, where the snow depth and snow cover were allowed to evolve freely, the inter-annual variability of surface and near surface air temperatures were found to be larger and explains up to 70% of the surface temperature variation over northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The impact of snow is found to be stronger in spring than in winter, since in spring season both albedo and hydrological effects contribute to the variability in temperature. To study projected changes to snow-atmosphere coupling in future climate, coupled and uncoupled CRCM5 simulations, driven by coupled GCMs, were performed, for current (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) climates. Coupling regions in the GCM-driven current climate simulations are similar to those obtained with ERA-Interim driven CRCM5 simulations discussed above. In future climate, snow-temperature coupling shows some change in spatial structures and in magnitudes. These results suggest that accurate initialization of snow condition could potentially be helpful to improve seasonal prediction skill over these snow-atmosphere coupling hotspot regions.

  1. Catchment Sensitivity to Changing Climate Conditions: The Importance of Landscape Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Karlsen, Reinert; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2015-04-01

    The scientific literature is full of studies analyzing future climate change impacts on hydrology with focus on individual catchments. We recently found, however, that hydrologic behavior and specific discharge vary considerably even in neighboring and rather similar catchments under current climate conditions and that these variations are related to landscape characteristics. Therefore we hypothesize that these landscape characteristics also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to changing climate conditions. We analyzed the hydrological response of 14 partially nested catchments in Northern Sweden with slightly different topography, land cover, size and geology. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflows were simulated with the hydrological model HBV light based on 15 regional climate model projections that were bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach. Our simulations revealed that - in a future climate- the total annual streamflow will be higher, spring flood peaks will occur earlier and decrease considerably, whereas winter base flows will more than double. These changes are somewhat expected and mainly triggered by a projected increase in winter temperature, which leads to less snow accumulation on the ground. However, our results also show that there is a large variability amongst these catchments in their hydrological response to the same future climate conditions. We identified wetlands, lakes, peat soils and higher elevations as factors that had a stronger effect on spring floods, whereas catchments dominated by forests, steeper slopes and till soils showed stronger responses in winter base flows and total annual streamflow. Therefore, our results suggest that the sensitivity of catchments to future climate conditions is strongly linked to landscape characteristics and also depends on the streamflow characteristic as well as season analyzed.

  2. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in

  3. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    SciTech Connect

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  4. Forecasting Seasonal Water Needs Under Current and Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spisni, A.; Pratizzoli, W.; Tomei, F.; Mariani, M. C.; Villani, G.; Pavan, V.; Tomozeiu, R.; Marletto, V.

    2010-12-01

    This work outlines the complex strategy being developed at ARPA-SIMC for the integrated exploitation of remote sensing, soil water modelling, seasonal forecasting and climate projections, in view of better monitoring and management of water in agriculture at the scale of the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy. Remote sensing and field surveys are being used to map crops early in the season, a geographical soil water model uses the crop map together with a soil map and weather data to simulate soil water status up to the beginning of the irrigation season. Downscaled seasonal forecasts are then used to assess the summer irrigation needs. This operational framework is also used to evaluate the impacts of climate change for years 2021-2050 relative to current climate conditions. First tests on kiwifruit in the Romagna subregion show a modest increase in irrigation water demand.

  5. Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    De Young, Russell J.; Ganoe, Rene

    2015-01-01

    The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

  6. Simulating malaria transmission in the current and future climate of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria transmission in West Africa is closely tied to climate, as rain fed water pools provide breeding habitat for the anopheles mosquito vector, and temperature affects the mosquito's ability to spread disease. We present results of a highly detailed, spatially explicit mechanistic modelling study exploring the relationships between the environment and malaria in the current and future climate of West Africa. A mechanistic model of human immunity was incorporated into an existing agent-based model of malaria transmission, allowing us to move beyond entomological measures such as mosquito density and vectorial capacity to analyzing the prevalence of the malaria parasite within human populations. The result is a novel modelling tool that mechanistically simulates all of the key processes linking environment to malaria transmission. Simulations were conducted across climate zones in West Africa, linking temperature and rainfall to entomological and epidemiological variables with a focus on nonlinearities due to threshold effects and interannual variability. Comparisons to observations from the region confirmed that the model provides a reasonable representation of the entomological and epidemiological conditions in this region. We used the predictions of future climate from the most credible CMIP5 climate models to predict the change in frequency and severity of malaria epidemics in West Africa as a result of climate change.

  7. Application of paleoenvironmental data for testing climate models and understanding past and future climate variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izumi, Kenji

    Paleo data-model comparison is the process of comparing output from model simulations of past periods with paleoenvironmental data. It enables us to understand both the paleoclimate mechanism and responses of the earth environment to the climate and to evaluate how models work. This dissertation has two parts that each involve the development and application of approaches for data-model comparisons. In part 1, which is focused on the understanding of both past and future climatic changes/variations, I compare paleoclimate and historical simulations with future climate projections exploiting the fact that climate-model configurations are exactly the same in the paleo and future simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. In practice, I investigated large-scale temperature responses (land-ocean contrast, high-latitude amplification, and change in temperature seasonality) in paleo and future simulations, found broadly consistent relationships across the climate states, and validated the responses using modern observations and paleoclimate reconstructions. Furthermore, I examined the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms controls the large-scale temperature responses using a simple energy-balance model to decompose the temperature changes shown in warm and cold climate simulations and found that the clear-sky longwave downward radiation is a key control of the robust responses. In part 2, I applied the equilibrium terrestrial biosphere models, BIOME4 and BIOME5 (developed from BIOME4 herein), for reconstructing paleoclimate. I applied inverse modeling through the iterative forward-modeling (IMIFM) approach that uses the North American vegetation data to infer the mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 years ago) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) climates that control vegetation distributions. The IMIFM approach has the potential to provide more accurate quantitative climate estimates from pollen records than statistical approaches

  8. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  9. Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Axel

    2008-02-01

    The anticipated change of climatic conditions within the next decades is thought to have far reaching consequences for agricultural cropping systems. The success of crop production in China, the world's most populous country, will also have effects on the global food supply. More than 30% of the cropping area in China is irrigated producing the major part of the agricultural production. To model the effects of climate change on irrigation requirements for crop production in China a high-resolution (0.25°, monthly time series for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) gridded climate data set that specifically allows for the effects of topography on climate was integrated with digital soil data in a GIS. Observed long-term trends of monthly means as well as trends of interannual variations were combined for climate scenarios for the year 2030 with average conditions as well as 'best case' and 'worst case' scenarios. Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951-1990 and the climate scenarios. During the period 1951-1990 irrigation demand displayed a considerable variation both in temporal and spatial respects. Future scenarios indicate a varied pattern of generally increasing irrigation demand and an enlargement of the subtropical cropping zone rather than a general northward drift of all zones as predicted by GCM models. The effects of interannual variability appear to have likely more impact on future cropping conditions than the anticipated poleward migration of cropping zones.

  10. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson, Agneta

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4oC warming and 50-80% decreasing ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30% in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants. Salinity will decrease by about 2 units. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favoured by AOM while phytoplankton may become hampered. More trophic levels in the food web will increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as effects of anthrophogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach and encompass both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g. bacterial) processes.

  11. Climate modelling and near future solar power assessment in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Vignati, Elisabetta; Huld, Thomas; Monforti-Ferrario, Fabio; Wilson, Julian; Dosio, Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    In this work the near future (2030-2050) solar power in Europe is assessed using numerical experiments. The photovoltaic energy is computed on the basis of the solar radiation and air temperature simulated by regional climate models run in the framework of the FP6-ENSEMBLES project. The multi-model simulation of the climate evolution over Europe is performed at a 25 km resolution using the IPCC A1B scenario, and the period 1961-2050 is analyzed. The A1B scenario assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, with a global population peak in mid-century. Preliminary results show a general increase of near-surface air temperature, accompanied by an increase (reduction) of the solar radiation in Southern (Northern) Europe, with significant positive effects on the photovoltaic energy availability over Western Europe.

  12. Modeling Future Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater in Mountainous Valley-Bottom Aquifers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, D. M.; Toews, M. W.; Scibek, J.

    2008-12-01

    Groundwater resources within many mountainous valley-bottom aquifers are increasingly threatened by increased demand for water due to population growth and intensification of agriculture. The semi-arid to arid conditions in such valley bottom areas make them particularly sensitive to climate change owing to the strong dependence of evapotranspiration rates on temperature, and potential shifts in the precipitation amounts and timing. Over the past several years, a series of case studies have been conducted in southern British Columbia, Canada to model potential impacts of future climate change on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. The study areas represent a range of current hydro-climatic regimes, spanning wet to semi-arid to arid, and focus on alluvial aquifers, situated in mountainous valleys. The same overall methodology and codes were used to assess climate change impacts in each aquifer system. Downscaled climate data from one or more global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive the recharge model. Downscaling was particularly challenging for precipitation due to the inherent difficulty for GCMs to simulate representative precipitation for mountainous regions. Temperature data were generally successfully downscaled. Solar radiation changes were estimated directly from the GCM data. To compensate for difficulties in downscaling, shifts in climate, from present to future-predicted, were applied to the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator to generate daily stochastic weather series for current and future time periods. Direct recharge via precipitation was modeled for each time period using the generated weather series. Spatial recharge was mapped from one-dimensional recharge simulations conducted using the HELP hydrologic model. Indirect recharge from rivers or streams was variably adjusted to account for shifts in timing and/or discharge amount based on future runoff predictions. Groundwater levels for current and future time periods were simulated

  13. Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

  14. Energy Partition From Various Climate Conditions And Land Use Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Chi-Han; Hsu2, Pang-Chi

    2015-04-01

    Investigating how energy partitions and what factors control energy exchange is critical for better understanding the hydrological cycle, boundary layer dynamics, and land -atmosphere coupling. Climate and land use conditions are the two main factors to control energy partitation. However, previous studies discussed energy partition and factors that controlled Bowen ratio (i.e., ratio of sensible heat flux to latent heat flux) in limited land use types and climate conditions. To provide a more comprehensive analysis over various climate and vegetation types, in this study, we studied eleven different land use types in the eight different climate zones within the United State. The results found out that the Mediterranean climate zone with dry summer season, dry arid (desert) climate zone, and the higher latitude area with severe winter would had higher Bowen ratio, lower precipitation and net radiation. In contrast, the humid climate zones had the lower Bowen ratio, higher net radiation and precipitation. Moreover, the higher Bowen ratio usually happened in the winter or early spring seasons. Regarding land conditions, it is found that soil moistures are the key factor to control Bowen ratio in the drier climate areas. Hence, the grassland and closed shrublands sites have higher Bowen ratio than deciduous broadleaf forests and evergreen needle-leaf forests sites' because of shallower root systems that lack access to the full storage of water in the vadose zone. However, in the humid areas, land use factors, such as stomatal resistance and leaf area, would play an important role in changing latent heat and sensible heat. Based on the tight relationships between Bowen ratio and conditions of climate and land use, we suggest that Bowen ratio could be a useful tool for understanding the potential feedbacks of changes in climate and land use to energy partition and exchange.

  15. Future flood hazard under climate change in the Mekong Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, H.; Dung, N. V.; Delgado, J. M.; Merz, B.

    2012-04-01

    The main characteristic of flood hazard estimations is the association of a probability of occurrence to a flood event of a defined magnitude. This is usually performed via frequency analysis assuming stationarity and independence of the analyzed time series. This assumption, however, often does not hold true even for historical records and periods and it will be even more challenged under the expected impact of climate change to the water cycle in general and flood probabilities and magnitudes in particular. Thus strategies and methods have to be developed and evaluated for accounting for climate change impacts on flood hazard. In the presented contribution two options are presented and compared for the Mekong Delta, one of the most endangered areas with respect to climate change world-wide. The first method takes non-stationarity explicitly into account by analyzing the observed time series of peak discharge and flood volume at the upper boundary of the Delta with non-stationary extreme value statistics. The two variables and their dependence are modeled by a copula, coupling their marginal distributions to a joint bivariate distribution. Using this copula in combination with characteristic normalized flood hydrographs, probabilistic flood hazard maps for the Mekong Delta are generated via a large scale hydrodynamic model of the Delta embedded in a Monte Carlo framework for the reference year 2009. In order to account for climate change the observed trend in the non-stationary extreme value distribution was simply extrapolated to two future time horizons 2030 and 2050. However, the extrapolations of the trends are certainly associated with high level of uncertainty, in particular for time horizons in the far future. Thus we compare the simple extrapolation approach with an approach deriving future flood hazard in the Mekong Delta by establishing direct correlations between monsoon indexes describing the intensity of the flood triggering monsoon activities and the

  16. Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future

  17. Investigating Climate on Venus with Future Missions (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinspoon, D. H.

    2013-12-01

    Venus presents unique opportunities to study climate on a nearby, active planet that is both surprisingly like Earth and startlingly different. Venus is remarkably like Earth in terms of bulk properties such as size, mass and density. And yet its modern climate has evolved to a state which is dramatically divergent from that of Earth. Thus Venus presents a fascinating experimental laboratory for studying and modeling climate processes on an Earth-sized world with a strong atmospheric greenhouse and for exploring the role of heliocentric distance and other initial conditions in determining the outcome of climate evolution on an Earth-like planet. Previous spacecraft investigations of Venus, combined with ground based observations, have confirmed the existence of a dynamic, changeable atmosphere with a deep troposphere extending to an altitude of 65 km, a highly variable globally encompassing cloud deck extending from 48 to 70 km altitude, and a complex pattern of global circulation dominated by superrotating winds which circle the globe at a rate up to 60 times faster than the retrograde rotation of the solid planet, with the peak wind velocities at an altitude of 60 km. Other large scale features of the global circulation include Hadley cells in which air rises at low latitudes and travels poleward at high altitudes; and large, complex vortices at both poles where sinking air from the Hadley circulation intersects with the superrotation. Attempts to model this global circulation using modified terrestrial General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been only partially successful. Such tests have the promise of not only increasing our understanding of the Venus atmosphere and its response to solar radiation, but improving our general knowledge of climate and global circulation on Earth-sized terrestrial planets, including Earth itself. They also serve as a 'reality check' on the current generation of terrestrial GCMs and their ability to accurately model climate and

  18. Impacts of future climate and emission changes on U.S. air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Wu, Shiang-Yuh; Leung, L. Ruby

    2014-06-01

    Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of regional air quality during current (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) winter and summer are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observations to assess the model's capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. WRF and CMAQ capture the overall observational spatial patterns and seasonal differences. Biases in model predictions are attributed to uncertainties in emissions, boundary conditions, and limitations in model physical and chemical treatments as well as the use of a coarse grid resolution. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) are found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future PM2.5 concentrations in winter and summer and many of its components decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants as well as increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with decreasing surface resistance and precipitation, respectively. They decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations. Anthropogenic emissions play a more important role in summer than in winter for future O3 and PM2.5 levels, with a dominance of the effects of significant emission reductions over those of climate change on future PM2.5 levels.

  19. The study of climate suitability for grapevine cropping using ecoclimatic indicators under climatic change conditions in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Caubel, J.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; deNoblet, N.

    2013-12-01

    Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the case of grape, climatic conditions such as water supply and temperatures have an effect of grape quality. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, in grape quality. We proposed to use GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators) in order to assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape (Vitis vinifera) regarding its quality. GETARI calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool proposes the major ecophysiological processes taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The effects of climate on the ecophysiological processes are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. These indicators are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. To assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape regarding its quality, we designed an evaluation tree from GETARI, by considering the effect of water deficit between flowering and veraison and the effect of water deficit, water excess, heat stress, temperature ranges between day and night, night temperatures and mean temperatures between veraison and harvest. The two sites are located in Burgundy and Rhone valley which are two of the most important vineyards in the world. Ecoclimatic indicators are calculated using phenological cycle of the crop. For this reason we chose Grenache and Pinot Noir as long and short cycle varieties respectively. Flowering, veraison and harvest dates were simulated (Parker et al., 2011; Yiou et al., 2012). Daily

  20. High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Wagner, Sven; Emeis, Stefan

    2015-10-01

    Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021-2050) compared to a reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1-3 °C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase of cooling and decrease of heating degree days indicate the possible impact on urban energy consumption under future climate conditions.

  1. Utilizing the Koeppen climate classification to assess the future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hori, M. E.; Yasunari, T.

    2007-12-01

    It is suggested that global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses will cause a large change in the mean temperature and precipitation patterns of the future. One way to quantify the impact of this change is to use the climate classification method. Classifying the climate into regions with distinct properties instead of using only physical properties such as temperature and precipitation helps to give an objective view of how climate change affects the environment such as the land-surface types and vegetation. TheKoeppen climate classification has a long history of application and modification and is known to give a robust classification of the mean climate that closely follows the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we apply theKoeppen climate classification on the result of 19 Atmosphere-Ocean GCM results provided by the PCMDI for the upcoming IPCC - AR4. By applying this method to the long-term future projection of climate models, instability of a particular climate region and its expected change in the longer timescales are quantified. The classification is performed on the 20th century simulation (20C3M) and the SRES-A1B / A2 scenario based on the long-term monthly climatology. The overall changes in classifications as well as inter-model distribution is calculated for all each model and the skill weighted ensemble mean. Results show that due to warmer climate and increase in moisture, large area of western Russian region and north America experience a shift from aDf (snow / fully moist) climate to Cf (Warm temperate / fully moist) classification which is in good agreement with the stronger NAO/AO phase in the north Atlantic. On the other hand, coastal Greenland region changes from a Ef (Polar frost) classification to Ef (Polar tundra) classification, which is in good agreement with the SST and sea-ice distribution. In contrast, northern China undergoes a change from Cf classification to Cw (Warm temperate / winter dry) classification

  2. Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

  3. Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P; Pitman, Andrew J; Di Luca, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

  4. Predicting Low Flow Conditions from Climatic Indices - Indicator-Based Modeling for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fangmann, Anne; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In the face of climate change, the assessment of future hydrological regimes has become indispensable in the field of water resources management. Investigation of potential change is vital for proper planning, especially with regard to hydrological extremes. Commonly, projection of future streamflow is done applying process-based hydrological models, using climate model data as input, whose complex model structures generally require excessive amounts of time and effort for set-up and computation. This study aims at identifying practical alternatives to the employment of sophisticated models by considering simpler, yet sufficiently accurate methods for modeling rainfall-runoff relations with regard to hydrological extremes. The focus is thereby put on the prediction of low flow periods, which are, in contrast to flood events, characterized by extended durations and spatial dimensions. The models to be established in this study base on indicators, which characterize both meteorological and hydrological conditions within dry periods. This approach makes direct use of the coupling between atmospheric driving forces and streamflow response with the underlying presumption that low-precipitation and high-evaporation periods result in diminished flow, implying that relationships exist between the properties of both meteorological and hydrological events (duration, volume, severity etc.). Eventually, optimal combinations of meteorological indicators are sought that are suitable to predict various low flow characteristics with satisfactory accuracy. Two approaches for model specification are tested: a) multiple linear regression, and b) Fuzzy logic. The data used for this study are daily time series of mean discharge obtained from 294 gauges with variable record length situated in the federal state of Lower Saxony, Germany, as well as interpolated climate variables available for a period from 1951 to 2011. After extraction of a variety of indicators from the available

  5. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes.

    PubMed

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. 'Mombaça' (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day(-1)) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day(-1)) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change. PMID:26894932

  6. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes

    PubMed Central

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. ‘Mombaça’ (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day-1) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day-1) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change. PMID:26894932

  7. The influence of HBV model calibration on flood predictions for future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osuch, Marzena; Romanowicz, Renata

    2014-05-01

    The temporal variability of HBV rainfall-runoff model parameters was tested to address the influence of climate characteristics on the values of model optimal parameters. HBV is a conceptual model with a physically-based structure that takes into account soil moisture, snow-melt and dynamic runoff components. The model parameters were optimized by the DEGL method (Differential Evolution with Global and Local neighbours) for a set of catchments located in Poland. The methodology consisted of the calibration and cross-validation of the HBV models on a series of five-year periods within a moving window. The optimal parameter values show large temporal variability and dependence on climatic conditions described by the mean and standard deviation of precipitation, air temperature and PET. Derived regressions models between parameters and climatic indices were statistically significant at the 0.05 level. The set of model optimal values was applied to simulate future flows in a changed climate. We used the precipitation and temperature series from 6 RCM/GCM models for 2071-2100 following the A1B climate change scenario. The climatic variables were obtained from the KLIMADA project. The resulting flow series for the future climate scenario were used to derive flow indices, including the flood quantiles. Results indicate a large influence of climatic variability on flow indices. This work was partly supported by the project "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" carried out by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences by order of the National Science Centre (contract No. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866). The rainfall and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  8. Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

    PubMed

    Mason, Tom H E; Stephens, Philip A; Apollonio, Marco; Willis, Stephen G

    2014-12-01

    The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate-driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89-103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range-shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species' realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15-30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model-type approach (SDM), which assumes that species' behaviour

  9. Climate Change Alters Future Hydrologic Regimes in an Alaskan Salmon Stronghold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, C. W.; Prucha, R. H.; Albert, D.; Jones, R.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change poses risks to salmon due to changes in both stream temperature and the seasonal distribution of flows. A number of studies have documented these potential effects in the Pacific Northwest, where changes in seasonal snowpack and summer flows have been well documented. We use an integrated hydrologic model and a suite of climate simulations to simulate baseline and future hydrologic conditions in two headwater streams draining into Bristol Bay, Alaska. Under current conditions, approximately 70% of winter storms occur when the air temperature is at or below freezing. These climate conditions are sufficient to build up a winter snowpack that creates a reliable spring freshet each spring. By 2050, model simulations indicate that as little as 30% of winter storms occur when air temperatures are below freezing, and this number decreases to as little as 10% by 2100. As a result of these projected changes in climate, the simulated hydrographs for future scenarios are substantially altered relative to baseline conditions. Rather than being dominated by a single large snowmelt freshet, our models project that the spring freshet is substantially reduced by 2050, and completely lost by 2100. Reliable high flows in the spring are instead replaced by a series of smaller runoff events throughout the winter. These hydrologic changes are likely to have cascading effects on this ecosystem, potentially affecting the timing of salmon runs, the quality of spawning gravels, and perhaps the survival of some sub-populations of salmonids. The future of Bristol Bay salmon will depend in part on how quickly these species can adapt to changing hydrologic conditions. Given the global importance of Bristol Bay salmon, management strategies that minimize additional stressors could also be important for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the resource.

  10. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  11. Potential Dominant Plant Functional Type and Terrestrial Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Sahajpal, R.; Zhao, M.; Dolan, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    The dominant plant functional type (PFT) of an ecosystem is influenced by local climate. Climate is changing at its greatest historical rate from anthropogenic forcing, which leads to ecosystem redistribution. Climate-ecosystem empirical relationships or biogeography models are used to spatially map current ecosystem distribution and to predict redistribution from climate change. Though climate-ecosystem metrics produce maps that predict the final reorganization of species from climate change they do not generally account for time delay in establishment created by species competition, withdrawal, and invasion. Transition zones between ecosystem types, such as tundra-taiga and evergreen-deciduous, will experience a time delay to establishment from the withdrawal and invasion of species that affect the carbon balance. Dynamic global vegetation models can be used predict the future PFT distribution under different climate change, but to date have not taken a robust approach to the competition between species invasion and withdrawal that creates a delay to final ecosystem redistribution. Therefore, we validate the dominant PFT distribution under current climate conditions of an advanced ecosystem model that has competition and migration processes, against remote sensing data of PFT type across northern North America. The climate-ecosystem relationships in the model match remote sensing data of dominant PFT from current climate 76% of the time for the ~3000 half degree sites in the domain. A climate change scenario was then run and our results showed that ~50% of the domain will change dominant PFT by 2070, highlighting that species competition and invasion influences on carbon balance from climate change is important in predicting future carbon balance. A model experimental design was then run with varying migration rates, species composition and distribution, and disturbance patterns to obtain a range of potential future terrestrial carbon stock from climate change

  12. Innovative Air Conditioning and Climate Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graf, John

    2015-01-01

    NASA needed to develop a desiccant wheel based humidity removal system to enable the long term testing of the Orion CO2 scrubber on the International Space Station. In the course of developing that system, we learned three things that are relevant to energy efficient air conditioning of office towers. NASA developed a conceptual design for a humidity removal system for an office tower environment. We are looking for interested partners to prototype and field test this concept.

  13. Plant Migrations Role on Future Carbon Balance from Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.

    2014-12-01

    Current efforts to forecast the future of forested systems often oversimplify or overlook the role of plant migration in carbon balance. Research on plant migrations influence on the carbon balance from climate change has been limited from challenges that arise when the ecosystem characteristics of this fine scale process are modeled over large domains. The computational time required to simulate migration lends itself to studies with representative forests while still limiting domain size. For higher resolution runs without limiting domain size migration was introduced to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. ED is an individual tree based model that uses a size and age-structured approximation for the first moment of the stochastic ecosystem model. Hence it can simulate large domains at high spatial resolution with reduced computational intensity. As it is an approximation, the specific location of an individual tree within a site is unknown so binomial probability of dispersal distance with respect to patch size was added to the model to determine when migration to a new site should occur. Migration probability also depends on the number of months reproduction occurs at a given site for deciduous and evergreen plant functional types. The maximum paleoecological data migration rate of 100 km per century was used for both functional types and calibrated in ED in a test domain of the eastern United States. After validation, meteorological data from NARCCAP for current and future climate were used to simulate migration at three rates (none, instantaneous and 100 km per century) with a North America domain at quarter degree resolution. Comparison of scenarios highlights plant migrations role on the terrestrial carbon balance under climate change simulations, particularly with regard to transition zones where biomes are expected to expand and contract.

  14. Site selection for OWL using past, present, and future climate information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, Edward; Sarazin, Marc S.; Beniston, Martin; Collet, Claude; Hayoz, Michael; Neun, Moritz; Goyette, Stéphane

    2004-10-01

    Selection of an ideal site for the new generation of Overwhelmingly Large (OWL) telescopes is dependent on many climatological and meteorological parameters. Among these are cloud cover, atmospheric humidity, aerosol content, air temperature, airflow direction, strength and turbulence. Even relatively minor changes in weather patterns can have a significant effect on seeing conditions. A composite climatological database has been designed and built for the site selection task at the Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland. The database is mainly composed of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data at a global resolution of between 1° and 2.5° latitude / longitude. Using a Java based interface, codenamed "FriOWL", and programmed in the style of a Geographical Information System, all of this relevant information can be interrogated in order to find the best possible sites for the new telescope. Perhaps the most important variable in site selection is the interaction between air-flow and topography, as atmospheric turbulence greatly affects the image quality produced by the telescope. Global climate is changing and it will continue to do throughout the 21st century. Therefore, it is important to ascertain the effect of global warming on potential sites. An ideal site in today"s climate may not prove ideal within 20 to 50 years. It is therefore planned to update the database with future climate data, using output from global climate models. High resolution modeling of the critical parameters at preferred sites under future climates is also planned.

  15. Water quality under increased biofuel production and future climate change and uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past decade, biofuel has emerged as an important renewable energy source to supplement gasoline and reduce the associated greenhouse gas emission. Many countries, for instant, have adopted biofuel production goals to blend 10% or more of gasoline with biofuels within 10 to 20 years. However, meeting these goals requires sustainable production of biofuel feedstock which can be challenging under future change in climate and extreme weather conditions, as well as the likely impacts of biofuel feedstock production on water quality and availability. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have performed watershed hydrology and water quality analyses for the Ohio River Basin. The basin is one of the major biofuel feedstock producing region in the United States, which also currently contributes about half of the flow and one third of phosphorus and nitrogen loadings to the Mississippi River that eventually flows to the Gulf of Mexico. The analyses integrate future scenarios and climate change and biofuel development through various mixes of landuse and agricultural management changes and examine their potential impacts on regional and local hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The results of the study are expected to provide much needed insight about the sustainability of large-scale biofuel feedstock production under the future climate change and uncertainty, and helps to further optimize the feedstock production taking into consideration the water-use efficiency.

  16. Quantifying and Constraining Structural Uncertainty in Future Climate Projections over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, R.; Achutarao, K. M.

    2015-12-01

    The quantification of uncertainty in future climate change projections is essential for appropriate use by policy makers.In this study, coupled climate model projections from 27 models participating in the CMIP5 are analyzed for projected future changes over India and sub-regions (homogenous climatic zones) within. We partition the uncertainty of future temperature and precipitation in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments into Epistemic (structural or model dependent), Aleatoric (chaotic or initial condition dependent), and Reflexive (scenario dependent) components. For this, a subset of 8 models is selected on the basis of availability of more than three realizations from each model. Our results indicate that while there are regions and seasons with large model dependent uncertainty, in many instances the Aleatoric uncertainty component exceeds it. We also address the question whether using appropriate performance metric based weighting for individual models can reduce structural uncertainty. We explore combinations of metrics across variables (and multiple observational datasets where available) and phenomena that matter for the different regional climatic zones to weight models and examine the resulting uncertainty range.

  17. Impact of bias correction method on simulated runoff conditions under a large ensemble of climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kling, Harald; Klein, Bastian; Stanzel, Philipp

    2013-04-01

    A common approach for assessing future runoff conditions is to drive hydrological models with downscaled, bias corrected data of climate models. In a previous study for the Upper Danube basin, Kling et al. (2012) used a large ensemble of regional climate models to analyse the uncertainty in future runoff projections due to choice of climate model. In this follow-up study we extend this work by also examining the impact of the bias correction method. We apply five different bias correction methods to monthly precipitation and temperature data of 32 recently published regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES and CERA climate data bases. The bias correction methods include delta change, linear scaling, moment scaling, quantile mapping and a de-trended version of quantile mapping. This yields 160 different climate scenario sets for runoff modelling until the end of the 21st century, showing distinctive changes in mean annual runoff, seasonality in runoff, distribution of runoff and low flows of the Danube River. In general the uncertainty due to choice of climate model is considerably larger than due to choice of bias correction method. Only for climate models that perform exceptionally poor for simulation of historic climate, the choice of bias correction method becomes similarly important for future runoff simulations. Systematic differences - albeit smaller than between climate models - are found between two groups of bias correction methods. The climate change signals differ between these two groups after application of the bias correction. A detailed analysis of climate model error properties reveals for most climate models a problematic cross-correlation between projected trends in future climate and errors in historic climate variability. Thereby, the climate change signals in future mean annual temperature and precipitation are modified in frequency-based bias correction methods, such as the popular quantile mapping method. As there is no way of quantifying the

  18. Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest.

    PubMed

    Endler, Christina; Oehler, Karoline; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961-2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid-warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential. PMID:19705164

  19. Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endler, Christina; Oehler, Karoline; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961-2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid-warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential.

  20. Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

    2016-04-01

    It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more

  1. Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

    2014-03-01

    Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for

  2. Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osuch, Marzena; Romanowicz, Renata J.; Lawrence, Deborah; Wong, Wai K.

    2016-05-01

    Possible future climate change effects on dryness conditions in Poland are estimated for six climate projections using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The time series of precipitation represent six different climate model runs under the selected emission scenario for the period 1971-2099. Monthly precipitation values were used to estimate the SPI for multiple timescales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) for a spatial resolution of 25 km for the whole country. Trends in the SPI were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test with Sen's slope estimator for each grid cell for each climate model projection and aggregation scale, and results obtained for uncorrected precipitation and bias corrected precipitation were compared. Bias correction was achieved using a distribution-based quantile mapping (QM) method in which the climate model precipitation series were adjusted relative to gridded precipitation data for Poland. The results show that the spatial pattern of the trend depends on the climate model, the timescale considered and on the bias correction. The effect of change on the projected trend due to bias correction is small compared to the variability among climate models. We also summarize the mechanisms underlying the influence of bias correction on trends in precipitation and the SPI using a simple example of a linear bias correction procedure. In both cases, the bias correction by QM does not change the direction of changes but can change the slope of trend, and the influence of bias correction on SPI is much reduced. We also have noticed that the results for the same global climate model, driving different regional climate model, are characterized by a similar pattern of changes, although this behaviour is not seen at all timescales and seasons.

  3. "Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weissert, Helmut

    2013-04-01

    With the beginning of the fossil fuel age in the 19th century mankind has become an important geological agent on a global scale. For the first time in human history action of man has an impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing CO2 concentrations will result in a perturbation of global carbon cycling coupled with climate change. Investigations of past changes in carbon cycling and in climate will improve our predictions of future climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will drive climate into a mode of operation, which may resemble climate conditions in the deep geological past. Pliocene climate will give insight into 400ppm world with higher global sea level than today. Doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels will shift the climate system into a state resembling greenhouse climate in the Early Cenozoic or even in the Cretaceous. Carbon isotope geochemistry serves as tool for tracing the pathway of the carbon cycle through geological time. Globally registered negative C-isotope anomalies in the C-isotope record are interpreted as signatures of rapid addition (103 to a few 104 years) of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system. Positive C-isotope excursions following negative spikes record the slow post-perturbation recovery of the biosphere at time scales of 105 to 106 years. Duration of C-cycle perturbations in earth history cannot be directly compared with rapid perturbation characterizing the Anthropocene. However, the investigation of greenhouse pulses in the geological past provides insight into different climate states, it allows to identify tipping points in past climate systems and it offers the opportunity to learn about response reactions of the biosphere to rapid changes in global carbon cycling. Sudden injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is recorded in C-isotope record of the Early Cretaceous. The Aptian carbon cycle perturbation triggered changes in temperature and in global hydrological cycling

  4. Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

    SciTech Connect

    Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.; Wu, Shiang Yuh; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-06-01

    in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.

  5. A statistical modeling framework for projecting future ambient ozone and its health impact due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

    2014-06-01

    The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041-2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999-2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: -7%-24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models.

  6. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  7. Scenarios of Future Climate and Land-Management Effects on Carbon Stocks in Northern Patagonian Shrublands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrera, Analia; Ares, Jorge; Labraga, Juan; Thurner, Stephanie; Bertiller, Mónica

    2007-12-01

    We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m-2). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%.

  8. Scenarios of future climate and land-management effects on carbon stocks in northern Patagonian shrublands.

    PubMed

    Carrera, Analia; Ares, Jorge; Labraga, Juan; Thurner, Stephanie; Bertiller, Mónica

    2007-12-01

    We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m(-2)). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%. PMID:17786512

  9. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    SciTech Connect

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O'Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  10. Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.