Science.gov

Sample records for future heat extremes

  1. Future population exposure to US heat extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Bryan; O'Neill, Brian C.; McDaniel, Larry; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2015-07-01

    Extreme heat events are likely to become more frequent in the coming decades owing to climate change. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we provide a new projection of population exposure to extreme heat for the continental United States that takes into account both of these factors. Using projections from a suite of regional climate models driven by global climate models and forced with the SRES A2 scenario and a spatially explicit population projection consistent with the socioeconomic assumptions of that scenario, we project changes in exposure into the latter half of the twenty-first century. We find that US population exposure to extreme heat increases four- to sixfold over observed levels in the late twentieth century, and that changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of the population across larger US regions, strongly affects outcomes whereas smaller-scale spatial patterns of population change have smaller effects. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of exposure varies across regions of the country.

  2. Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme.

    PubMed

    Roy, Jacques; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Augusti, Angela; Benot, Marie-Lise; Thiery, Lionel; Darsonville, Olivier; Landais, Damien; Piel, Clément; Defossez, Marc; Devidal, Sébastien; Escape, Christophe; Ravel, Olivier; Fromin, Nathalie; Volaire, Florence; Milcu, Alexandru; Bahn, Michael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2016-05-31

    Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake. PMID:27185934

  3. Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme

    PubMed Central

    Roy, Jacques; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Augusti, Angela; Benot, Marie-Lise; Thiery, Lionel; Darsonville, Olivier; Landais, Damien; Piel, Clément; Defossez, Marc; Devidal, Sébastien; Escape, Christophe; Ravel, Olivier; Fromin, Nathalie; Volaire, Florence; Milcu, Alexandru; Bahn, Michael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake. PMID:27185934

  4. Extreme European heat waves since 1950 with Heat Wave Magnitude Index and their occurrence in the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, Simone; Dosio, Alessandro; Sillmann, Jana

    2015-04-01

    Heat waves are defined as prolonged periods of extremely hot weather and their magnitude and frequency are expected to increase in the future under climate change. Here we grade the heat waves occurred in Europe since 1950, by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) applied to daily maximum temperature from European Observation dataset (E-OBS). As shown in many studies the worst event in the last decades occurred in Russia in 2010. However many other heat waves, as shown here and documented in literature and also in newspapers, occurred in different European regions in the past 64 years. In addition, predictions from ten models from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) under different IPCC AR5 scenarios, suggest an increased probability of occurrence of extreme heat waves by the end of the century. In particular, under the most severe scenario, events of the same severity, as the 2010 Russian heat wave, will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every two years in the studied region.

  5. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  6. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

    2014-03-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  7. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  8. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  9. The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullen, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    In The Weather of the Future, Dr. Heidi Cullen puts a vivid face on climate change, offering a new way of seeing this phenomenon not just as an event set to happen in the distant future but as something happening right now in our own backyards. Arguing that we must connect the weather of today with the climate change of tomorrow, Cullen combines the latest research from scientists on the ground with state-of-the-art climate model projections to create climate-change scenarios for seven of the most at-risk locations around the world. From the Central Valley of California, where coming droughts will jeopardize the entire state’s water supply, to Greenland, where warmer temperatures will give access to mineral wealth buried beneath ice sheets for millennia, Cullen illustrates how, if left unabated, climate change will transform every corner of the world by midcentury. What emerges is a mosaic of changing weather patterns that collectively spell out the range of risks posed by global warming—whether it’s New York City, whose infrastructure is extremely vulnerable even to a relatively weak Category 3 hurricane or to Bangladesh, a country so low-lying that millions of people could become climate refugees thanks to rising sea levels. The Weather of the Future makes climate change local, showing how no two regions of the country or the world will be affected in quite the same way and demonstrating that melting ice is just the beginning.

  10. Near future changes of extremes and compound extremes on the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, Hendrik; Schädler, Gerd

    2013-04-01

    Reliable knowledge of near future changes of extreme and compound extreme events on the regional scale is of great importance for impact studies and planning of adaptation/mitigation strategies. Different types of extremes might intensify each other, e.g. heat waves and droughts via evapotranspiration and heat flux. Compared to projections for the end of the century, the climate change and variation signals for the near future are weaker and more contaminated by to natural variations. On the other hand several studies (e.g. Feldmann et al. [1]) have shown that extremes are likely to undergo more pronounced changes than mean values. To derive reliable estimates of these changes, ensembles of simulations are a useful method since the larger number of data allows for a better estimate of probability density function parameters and higher signal-to-noise ratios which are especially needed for the analysis of extreme events and compound extremes. Furthermore, using ensembles enables an assessment of the uncertainty of the deduced changes. Our work is based on an ensemble of high resolution regional climate simulations with a resolution of 7 km with the COSMO-CLM regional climate model using different global driving data. Our ensemble is enlarged by results from the ENSEMBLES project, thus also including different regional and global driving models. Changes between a control period (1971-200) and the near future (2011-2040) are assessed with a special focus on central Europe. The analysis focuses on extreme events related to temperature and precipitation such as heat and cold waves or dry spells with a subsequent examination of compound extreme events. Compound extreme events are defined as the simultaneous or successive occurrence of two or more extreme events (IPCC Special Report on extreme events, 2012), e.g. the simultaneous occurrence of dry periods and heat waves or cold spells and extreme precipitation. Extremes are expressed in terms of return values and

  11. Summer Heat Waves - Extreme Years

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The performance of four heat stress indices was compared for response to known events. A 12-yr period of weather data was analyzed for occurrence of heat wave events at each of three locations--Grand Island and Concord, NE and Rockport, MO. Numerous events were detected at each location. The Temp...

  12. Keeping Cool in Extreme Heat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2001-01-01

    Through a partnership with Unitika Ltd., NASA's Langley Research Center created a foam based on high temperature resistant polyimide chemistry. Licensed non-exclusively to SORDAL, Inc., the low-density foam, named TEEK, can be processed into forms or used to fill structures such as honeycomb. TEEK offers superior insulation and support qualities, with heat and flame resistance abilities.TEEK is a practical selection for hull insulation in the shipbuilding industry, with numerous potential applications in aerospace applications, fire-resistant construction materials, and a wide range of consumer products that will improve safety and energy efficiency. Other opportunities are available in the areas of automotive coatings and sealants, electrical components, and recreational equipment. SORDAL has introduced its new product in several different forms, under the name "SOLREX". The company is developing a new product called SORDAL Paper(TM) that will be used in conjunction with the polyimide foam to offer thermal protection in various products, such as fire resistant garments and prosthetics.

  13. Extreme Convective Weather in Future Decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadian, Alan; Burton, Ralph; Groves, James; Blyth, Alan; Warner, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Done, James; Thielen, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    WISER (Weather Climate Change Impact Study at Extreme Resolution) is a project designed to analyse changes in extreme weather events in a future climate, using a weather model (WRF) which is able to resolve small scale processes. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to look at convection which is of a scale which cannot be resolved by climate models. The regional meso-scale precipitation events, which are critical in understanding climate change impacts will be analysed. A channel domain outer model, with a resolution of ~ 20km in the outer domain drives an inner domain of ~ 3 km resolution. Results from 1989-1994 and 2020-2024 and 2030-2034 will be presented to show the effects of extreme convective events over Western Europe. This presentation will provide details of the project. It will present data from the 1989-1994 ERA-interim and CCSM driven simulations, with analysis of the future years as defined above. The representation of pdfs of extreme precipitation, Outgoing Longwave Radiation and wind speeds, with preliminary comparison with observations will be discussed. It is also planned to use the output to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and leading to the frequency of flash flooding due to heavy convective precipitation.

  14. Biological Extreme Events - Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutschick, V. P.

    2010-12-01

    Biological extreme events span wide ranges temporally and spatially and in type - population dieoffs, extinctions, ecological reorganizations, changes in biogeochemical fluxes, and more. Driving variables consist in meteorology, tectonics, orbital changes, anthropogenic changes (land-use change, species introductions, reactive N injection into the biosphere), and evolution (esp. of diseases). However, the mapping of extremes in the drivers onto biological extremes as organismal responses is complex, as laid out originally in the theoretical framework of Gutschick and BassiriRad (New Phytologist [2003] 100:21-42). Responses are nonlinear and dependent on (mostly unknown and) complex temporal sequences - often of multiple environmental variables. The responses are species- and genotype specific. I review extreme events over from past to present over wide temporal scales, while noting that they are not wholly informative of responses to the current and near-future drivers for at least two reasons: 1) the current combination of numerous environmental extremes - changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation, reactive N, land fragmentation, O3, etc. -is unprecedented in scope, and 2) adaptive genetic variation for organismal responses is constrained by poorly-characterized genetic structures (in organisms and populations) and by loss of genetic variation by genetic drift over long periods. We may expect radical reorganizations of ecosystem and biogeochemical functions. These changes include many ecosystem services in flood control, crop pollination and insect/disease control, C-water-mineral cycling, and more, as well as direct effects on human health. Predictions of such changes will necessarily be very weak in the critical next few decades, given the great deal of observation, experimentation, and theory construction that will be necessary, on both organisms and drivers. To make the research efforts most effective will require extensive, insightful planning, beginning

  15. Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

    2014-05-01

    The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

  16. Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly.

    PubMed

    Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

    2015-06-01

    Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial

  17. Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, N.L.; Hayhoe, K.; Jin, J.; Auffhammer, M.

    2008-04-01

    Climate projections from three atmosphere-ocean climate models with a range of low to mid-high temperature sensitivity forced by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change SRES higher, middle, and lower emission scenarios indicate that, over the 21st century, extreme heat events for major cities in heavily air-conditioned California will increase rapidly. These increases in temperature extremes are projected to exceed the rate of increase in mean temperature, along with increased variance. Extreme heat is defined here as the 90 percent exceedance probability (T90) of the local warmest summer days under the current climate. The number of extreme heat days in Los Angeles, where T90 is currently 95 F (32 C), may increase from 12 days to as many as 96 days per year by 2100, implying current-day heat wave conditions may last for the entire summer, with earlier onset. Overall, projected increases in extreme heat under the higher A1fi emission scenario by 2070-2099 tend to be 20-30 percent higher than those projected under the lower B1 emission scenario, ranging from approximately double the historical number of days for inland California cities (e.g. Sacramento and Fresno), up to four times for previously temperate coastal cities (e.g. Los Angeles, San Diego). These findings, combined with observed relationships between high temperature and electricity demand for air-conditioned regions, suggest potential shortfalls in transmission and supply during T90 peak electricity demand periods. When the projected extreme heat and peak demand for electricity are mapped onto current availability, maintaining technology and population constant only for demand side calculations, we find the potential for electricity deficits as high as 17 percent. Similar increases in extreme heat days are suggested for other locations across the U.S. southwest, as well as for developing nations with rapidly increasing electricity demands. Electricity response to recent extreme heat events, such

  18. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  19. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  20. Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argüeso, Daniel; Di Luca, Alejandro; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Evans, Jason P.

    2016-07-01

    Increased temperature will result in longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves. Changes in temperature variability have been deemed necessary to account for future heat wave characteristics. However, this has been quantified only in Europe and North America, while the rest of the globe remains unexplored. Using late century global climate projections, we show that annual mean temperature increases is the key factor defining heat wave changes in most regions. We find that commonly studied areas are an exception rather than the standard and the mean climate change signal generally outweighs any influence from variability changes. More importantly, differences in warming across seasons are responsible for most of the heat wave changes and their consideration relegates the contribution of variability to a marginal role. This reveals that accurately capturing mean seasonal changes is crucial to estimate future heat waves and reframes our interpretation of future temperature extremes.

  1. Future precipitation extremes during summer monsoon in southern Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahid, Maida; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events are considered as a hydro-meteorological hazard resulting in colossal damage worldwide. In Pakistan, the extreme precipitation events have increased in the recent decades particularly in the southern part (Sindh province). This region did not receive substantial amount of precipitation earlier, but now experiencing urban flooding almost every year causing loss of life, property, crops and infrastructure. The region lacks the information regarding the recurrence of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, there is a strong need for a reliable information of extremes over the upcoming decades for better regional planning. Although statistical methods based on extreme value theory (EVT) are the most relevant ones to study the extremes, but they are never been applied in Pakistan. To address this shortcoming, we use the peak over threshold (POT) approach to compute the return levels (RLs) of precipitation extremes, and also identify the regions most prone to them. In this study, we analyzed the summer monsoon daily precipitation measured at nine weather stations of Pakistan Meteorological Department over the period 1980-2013. The summer monsoon (JJAS) is preferred for the analysis, because most of the extreme precipitation occurs during this period. We apply POT approach to model the daily precipitation above a selected threshold for each station. Then, we estimate return levels (RLs) of precipitation extremes during summer monsoon in southern Pakistan (Sindh) for the next 5, 25, 50 and 100-years. Lastly, we compare the 5-years with 100-years RLs to indicate the stations most vulnerable to precipitation extremes in future. This work is funded by the Climate KIC, European Institute of Innovation and Technology, Germany.

  2. Hypersonic Composites Resist Extreme Heat and Stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    Through research contracts with NASA, Materials and Electrochemical Research Corporation (MER), of Tucson, Arizona, contributed a number of technologies to record-breaking hypersonic flights. Through this research, MER developed a coating that successfully passed testing to simulate Mach 10 conditions, as well as provide several additional carbon-carbon (C-C) composite components for the flights. MER created all of the leading edges for the X-43A test vehicles at Dryden-considered the most critical parts of this experimental craft. In addition to being very heat resistant, the coating had to be very lightweight and thin, as the aircraft was designed to very precise specifications and could not afford to have a bulky coating. MER patented its carbon-carbon (C-C) composite process and then formed a spinoff company, Frontier Materials Corporation (FMC), also based in Tucson. FMC is using the patent in conjunction with low-cost PAN (polyacrylonitrile)-based fibers to introduce these materials to the commercial markets. The C-C composites are very lightweight and exceptionally strong and stiff, even at very high temperatures. The composites have been used in industrial heating applications, the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as in glass manufacturing and on semiconductors. Applications also include transfer components for glass manufacturing and structural members for carrier support in semiconductor processing.

  3. Future Heat Waves in Paris Metropolitan Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulant, A.; Lemonsu, A.; Somot, S.; Masson, V.

    2010-12-01

    Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, firstly because they concentrate the majority of the population and, secondly because the heat island that characterizes the urban climate exacerbates heat wave effects. This work is part of the interdisciplinary VURCA project (Vulnerability of cities to heat waves), which deals with the evolution of heat wave events in the context of global warming, urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1950-2009) and their evolution in an enhanced greenhouse gazes future climate (2010-2100). We used daily observations of temperature from several stations covering Paris metropolitan area and climate projections following three different IPCC-SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and issued from several ENSEMBLES regional climate models. The heat wave definition is based on the indexes of the operational French warning system. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a heat wave peak, when the temperatures exceed the value of the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak, for which the temperatures are not durably smaller than the 99.9th percentile value minus 2 °C. The 99.9th percentile threshold is inferred from quantile-quantile plots produced for each climate model in comparison with observations for the reference period 1950-2000. Heat waves have been extracted within observations and 12 climatic simulations. The number of heat wave events and cumulated HW days per year have been calculated, the maximum being seven heat waves cumulating more than 60 HW days in one year in the case of the A2 scenario and until 50 days in the case of the more moderate A1B scenario. From 2050, the occurrence of three or four HW events per year is becoming the norm all scenarios taken together. The evolution of heat wave features has been analysed, highlighting the large variability of the climatic

  4. Precipitation Extremes: Considerations for Anthropogenically-forced Future Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, K.; Young, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment states that "increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions". While that general statement was made with high confidence, the practical implications for decision-makers are much less clear. In particular, engineering design needs quantitative estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) values for the future in order to optimize runoff control structures for future climate conditions. This can be realized by simply analyzing the precipitation data from global climate model simulations of the future. However, confidence in the resulting values suffers from the known issues with GCM simulation of precipitation. In addition, skepticism about the accuracy of climate models negatively affects potential adoption of revised values in the engineering design community. We contend that scientists need a multi-pronged approach to develop PMP/IDF values that can be defended, explained, and promoted in order to maximize societal benefits and avoid catastrophic events. This talk will discuss considerations that could/should form the basis for design values. While global-warming induced increases in atmospheric water vapor content are nearly certain and form the foundation for expected increases in extreme precipitation, they most likely will be modulated by changes in global atmospheric dynamics and the consequent effects on local weather system climatology. This can be seen currently in the unexplained regional variations in recent trends in extreme precipitation frequency and intensity. We need to be able to understand recent trends, when greenhouse gas forcing of the climate systems has been rapidly increasing, in order to produce confident projections of future extreme precipitation.

  5. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

    PubMed

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-08-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  6. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  7. Radiative heat transfer in the extreme near field.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyeongtae; Song, Bai; Fernández-Hurtado, Víctor; Lee, Woochul; Jeong, Wonho; Cui, Longji; Thompson, Dakotah; Feist, Johannes; Reid, M T Homer; García-Vidal, Francisco J; Cuevas, Juan Carlos; Meyhofer, Edgar; Reddy, Pramod

    2015-12-17

    Radiative transfer of energy at the nanometre length scale is of great importance to a variety of technologies including heat-assisted magnetic recording, near-field thermophotovoltaics and lithography. Although experimental advances have enabled elucidation of near-field radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as 20-30 nanometres (refs 4-6), quantitative analysis in the extreme near field (less than 10 nanometres) has been greatly limited by experimental challenges. Moreover, the results of pioneering measurements differed from theoretical predictions by orders of magnitude. Here we use custom-fabricated scanning probes with embedded thermocouples, in conjunction with new microdevices capable of periodic temperature modulation, to measure radiative heat transfer down to gaps as small as two nanometres. For our experiments we deposited suitably chosen metal or dielectric layers on the scanning probes and microdevices, enabling direct study of extreme near-field radiation between silica-silica, silicon nitride-silicon nitride and gold-gold surfaces to reveal marked, gap-size-dependent enhancements of radiative heat transfer. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art calculations of radiative heat transfer, performed within the theoretical framework of fluctuational electrodynamics, are in excellent agreement with our experimental results, providing unambiguous evidence that confirms the validity of this theory for modelling radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as a few nanometres. This work lays the foundations required for the rational design of novel technologies that leverage nanoscale radiative heat transfer. PMID:26641312

  8. Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Ying; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W.; Song, Lianchun; Wan, Hui; Hu, Ting; Yin, Hong; Ren, Guoyu

    2014-12-01

    The summer of 2013 was the hottest on record in Eastern China. Severe extended heatwaves affected the most populous and economically developed part of China and caused substantial economic and societal impacts. The estimated direct economic losses from the accompanying drought alone total 59 billion RMB (ref. ). Summer (June-August) mean temperature in the region has increased by 0.82 °C since reliable observations were established in the 1950s, with the five hottest summers all occurring in the twenty-first century. It is challenging to attribute extreme events to causes. Nevertheless, quantifying the causes of such extreme summer heat and projecting its future likelihood is necessary to develop climate adaptation strategies. We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s, and project that similarly hot summers will become even more frequent in the future, with fully 50% of summers being hotter than the 2013 summer in two decades even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions scenario. Without adaptation to reduce vulnerability to the effects of extreme heat, this would imply a rapid increase in risks from extreme summer heat to Eastern China.

  9. Current and future U.S. weather extremes and El Niño

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Teng, Haiyan; Peterson, Thomas C.

    2007-10-01

    A global coupled climate model representative of the current generation of models is shown to simulate most first order aspects of El Niño events, their teleconnections over North America, and the associated observed patterns of extremes in present-day climate. Future El Niño teleconnection patterns over the U.S. are projected to shift eastward and northward due in part to the different midlatitude base state atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate. Consequently, projections for the changes in the patterns of extremes over the U.S. during future El Niño events include: decreases of frost days over the southwestern U.S expand northward and eastward; increases in intense precipitation in the SW U.S. expands eastward and areas in the SE U.S. become stronger; and decreases of heat wave intensity over much of the southern tier of states turn to increases.

  10. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.

    PubMed

    Battisti, David S; Naylor, Rosamond L

    2009-01-01

    Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation. PMID:19131626

  11. Enceladus' extreme heat flux as revealed by its relaxed craters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bland, Michael T.; Singer, Kelsi N.; McKinnon, William B.; Schenk, Paul M.

    2012-09-01

    Enceladus' cratered terrains contain large numbers of unusually shallow craters consistent with deformation by viscous relaxation of water ice under conditions of elevated heat flow. Here we use high-resolution topography to measure the relaxation fraction of craters on Enceladus far from the active South Pole. We find that many craters are shallower than expected, with craters as small as 2 km in diameter having relaxation fractions in excess of 90%. These measurements are compared with numerical simulations of crater relaxation to constrain the minimum heat flux required to reproduce these observations. We find that Enceladus' nominal cold surface temperature (70 K) and low surface gravity strongly inhibit viscous relaxation. Under such conditions less than 3% relaxation occurs over 2 Ga even for relatively large craters (diameter 24 km) and high, constant heat fluxes (150 mW m-2). Greater viscous relaxation occurs if the effective temperature at the top of the lithosphere is greater than the surface temperature due to insulating regolith and/or plume material. Even for an effective temperature of 120 K, however, heat fluxes in excess of 150 mW m-2 are required to produce the degree of relaxation observed. Simulations of viscous relaxation of Enceladus' largest craters suggest that relaxation is best explained by a relatively short-lived period of intense heating that decayed quickly. We show that infilling of craters by plume material cannot explain the extremely shallow craters at equatorial and higher northern latitudes. Thus, like Enceladus' tectonic terrains, the cratered regions of Enceladus have experienced periods of extreme heat flux.

  12. Future climate projections of extreme precipitation and temperature distributions by using an Extreme Value Theory non-stationary model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casati, B.; Lefaivre, L.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme weather events can cause large damages and losses, and have high societal and economical impacts. Climate model integrations predict increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Better understanding of the capabilities of climate models in representing the present climate extremes, joint with the analysis of the future climate projections for extreme events, can help to forewarn society from future high-impact events, and possibly better develop adaptation strategies. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) provides a well established and robust framework to analyse the behaviour of extreme weather events for the present climate and future projections. In this study a non-stationary model for Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is used to analyse the trend of the distributions of extreme precipitation and temperatures, in the context of a changing climate. The analysis is performed for the climate projections of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), under a SRES A2 emission scenario, for annual, seasonal and monthly extremes, for 12 regions characterised by different climatologies over the North American domain. Significant positive trends for the location of the distributions are found in most regions, indicating an expected increase in extreme value intensities, whereas the scale (variability) and shape (tail values) of the extreme distributions seem not to vary significantly. Extreme events, such as intense convective precipitation, are often associated to small-scale features. The enhanced resolution of Regional Climate Models enables to better represent such extreme events, with respect to Global Climate Models. However the resolution of these models is sometimes still too coarse to reproduce realistic extremes. To address this representativeness issue, statistical downscaling of the CRCM projections is performed. The downscaling relation is obtained by comparing the GEV distributions for the CRCM

  13. Temporal & Spatial Distribution of Extreme Heat Event in NYC Metro-Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvi, M. N.

    2012-12-01

    Recent studies indicate an increase in extreme summer weather events that may be linked to global warming. Heat wave intensity and frequency trends are a relatively unexplored topic that may demonstrate a more pronounced global warming manifestation than general climate change. Extreme heat events have adverse effects on both, ecosystems and human health, killing over 70,000 in 2003 alone. This study aims to validate that extreme heat events have been increasing in intensity, frequency, duration and affected-area over the past 40 years. The importance of properly defining heat events is stressed. As there is no exact definition, this study uses the adjusted NOAA National Weather Service definition, in terms of heat index, a reference to human comfort as defined by temperature and humidity. A heat wave is defined when maximum outside conditions of human comfort levels are present for consecutive days. Complex cities such as New York (NYC) are also expected to experience more intense heat events when considering the Urban Heat Island Effect. To observe the extent of recent heat events in NYC, heat event trends were produced using data from up to 59 NYCMetNet surface weather stations covering all five boroughs of the City. Map comparisons of heat events from recent years (2010-2012) demonstrate an increase in the effected metro areas with concentrated maximums in the northwest part of the city, attributed to the dense urban landscape and a converging wind zone. To investigate temporal trends of heat waves in NYC, four NOAA-NCDC weather stations in the NYC Metro Area were used, providing data from 1973-2012. The time series results indicate that heat wave maximum intensities are increasing in NYC as a function of time since 1973 at a rate of 1.2°C/decade. The temporal plots demonstrate an annual increase in maximum intensity, frequency, and average event duration that could be attributed to increasing heat island and global warming. Future studies will expand this

  14. Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobler, C.; Bürger, G.; Stötter, J.

    2013-02-01

    The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

  15. Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, R.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

  16. Hot bats: extreme thermal tolerance in a desert heat wave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondarenco, Artiom; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

    2014-08-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase temperature extremes and thus thermal stress on organisms. Animals living in hot deserts are already exposed to high ambient temperatures ( T a) making them especially vulnerable to further warming. However, little is known about the effect of extreme heat events on small desert mammals, especially tree-roosting microbats that are not strongly protected from environmental temperature fluctuations. During a heat wave with record T as at Sturt National Park, we quantified the thermal physiology and behaviour of a single free-ranging little broad-nosed ( Scotorepens greyii, henceforth Scotorepens) and two inland freetail bats ( Mormopterus species 3, henceforth Mormopterus) using temperature telemetry over 3 days. On 11 and 13 January, maximum T a was ˜45.0 °C, and all monitored bats were thermoconforming. On 12 January 2013, when T a exceeded 48.0 °C, Scotorepens abandoned its poorly insulated roost during the daytime, whereas both Mormopterus remained in their better insulated roosts and were mostly thermoconforming. Maximum skin temperatures ( T skin) ranged from 44.0 to 44.3 °C in Scotorepens and from 40.0 to 45.8 °C in Mormopterus, and these are the highest T skin values reported for any free-ranging bat. Our study provides the first evidence of extensive heat tolerance in free-ranging desert microbats. It shows that these bats can tolerate the most extreme T skin range known for mammals (3.3 to 45.8 °C) and delay regulation of T skin by thermoconforming over a wide temperature range and thus decrease the risks of dehydration and consequently death.

  17. Hot bats: extreme thermal tolerance in a desert heat wave.

    PubMed

    Bondarenco, Artiom; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

    2014-08-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase temperature extremes and thus thermal stress on organisms. Animals living in hot deserts are already exposed to high ambient temperatures (T a) making them especially vulnerable to further warming. However, little is known about the effect of extreme heat events on small desert mammals, especially tree-roosting microbats that are not strongly protected from environmental temperature fluctuations. During a heat wave with record T as at Sturt National Park, we quantified the thermal physiology and behaviour of a single free-ranging little broad-nosed (Scotorepens greyii, henceforth Scotorepens) and two inland freetail bats (Mormopterus species 3, henceforth Mormopterus) using temperature telemetry over 3 days. On 11 and 13 January, maximum T a was ∼45.0 °C, and all monitored bats were thermoconforming. On 12 January 2013, when T a exceeded 48.0 °C, Scotorepens abandoned its poorly insulated roost during the daytime, whereas both Mormopterus remained in their better insulated roosts and were mostly thermoconforming. Maximum skin temperatures (T skin) ranged from 44.0 to 44.3 °C in Scotorepens and from 40.0 to 45.8 °C in Mormopterus, and these are the highest T skin values reported for any free-ranging bat. Our study provides the first evidence of extensive heat tolerance in free-ranging desert microbats. It shows that these bats can tolerate the most extreme T skin range known for mammals (3.3 to 45.8 °C) and delay regulation of T skin by thermoconforming over a wide temperature range and thus decrease the risks of dehydration and consequently death. PMID:25005222

  18. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  19. Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of

  20. A Cross-Sectional, Randomized Cluster Sample Survey of Household Vulnerability to Extreme Heat among Slum Dwellers in Ahmedabad, India

    PubMed Central

    Tran, Kathy V.; Azhar, Gulrez S.; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile. PMID:23778061

  1. Extreme Hot Days future projections using Circulation Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres Garcia-Valero, Juan; Fernández-Montes, Sonia; Jerez, Sonia; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan Jose

    2016-04-01

    This work presents an ensemble of future climate change projections of Extreme Hot Days (EHDs) for Spain. EHD are defined as the days with temperature over the 95 percentile of extended 8 summer regional series (Garcia-Valero et al, 2015). The ensemble consist of 18 members. These come from varying the RPC (4.5 and 8.5), the global model (MPIM,EC-EARTH, CCSM) and the Circulation Type (CT) classification (Z500-SLP, Z500-T850, SLP-T850) obtained in Garcia-Valero et al (2015). Firstly, the ability of GCMs for representing the observed extreme CTs in the historical runs is assessed. All models represent satisfactory most CTs for all classifications, being the bias errors of the frequency appearance of the CTs always under the 15%. Results indicate that the CTs having the largest efficiencies in EHD production has the biggest increase along the next century. This leads to that all regions strongly increase the frequency appearance of EHD. The EHD increase is larger in the inner regions towards the north of Spain, reaching an increase of 3 times the current frequency at the end of this century . This shift is mainly attributable to changes in the atmospheric dynamics. It is very likely that the this value is a low boundary of EHD positive change, since most regional processes (feedbacks, persistence, etc) tends to increase high temperature events. In addition, an analysis of uncertainties has been carried out. An ANOVA analysis shows that the uncertainty associated to each source (GCMs, CT-class, RPC) depends on the region. However the general behavior is that the largest uncertainty is assigned to the GCM, while RCP and CT-class presents similar uncertainty.

  2. [Sports and extreme conditions. Cardiovascular incidence in long term exertion and extreme temperatures (heat, cold)].

    PubMed

    Melin, B; Savourey, G

    2001-06-30

    During ultra-endurance exercise, both increase in body temperature and dehydration due to sweat losses, lead to a decrease in central blood volume. The heart rate drift allows maintaining appropriate cardiac output, in order to satisfy both muscle perfusion and heat transfer requirements by increasing skin blood flow. The resulting dehydration can impair thermal regulation and increase the risks of serious accidents as heat stroke. Endurance events, lasting more than 8 hours, result in large sweat sodium chloride losses. Thus, ingestion of large amounts of water with poor salt intake can induce symptomatic hyponatremia (plasma sodium < 130 mEq/L) which is also a serious accident. Heat environment increases the thermal constraint and when the air humidity is high, evaporation of sweat is compromise. Thus, thermal stress becomes uncompensable which increases the risk of cardiovascular collapse. Cold exposure induces physiological responses to maintain internal temperature by both limiting thermal losses and increasing metabolic heat production. Cold can induce accidental hypothermia and local frost-bites; moreover, it increases the risk of arrhythmia during exercise. Some guidelines (cardiovascular fitness, water and electrolyte intakes, protective clothing) are given for each extreme condition. PMID:11505864

  3. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

    PubMed

    Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-09-01

    The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. PMID:25065257

  4. Carbon cycle extremes during the 21st century in CMIP5 models: Future evolution and attribution to climatic drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Reichstein, Markus; von Buttlar, Jannis; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2014-12-01

    Climate extremes such as droughts and heat waves affect terrestrial ecosystems and may alter local carbon budgets. However, it still remains uncertain to what degree extreme impacts in the carbon cycle influence the carbon cycle-climate feedback both today and the near future. Here we analyze spatiotemporally contiguous negative extreme anomalies in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) in model output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble and investigate their future development and attribution to climatic drivers. We find that relative to the overall increase in global carbon uptake, negative extremes in GPP and NEP lose importance toward the end of the 21st century. This effect can be related to elevated CO2 concentrations and higher amounts of available water at the global scale, partially mitigating the impacts of droughts and heat waves, respectively. Overall, based on CMIP5 models, we hypothesize that terrestrial ecosystems might be more resilient against future climate extremes than previously thought. Future work will have to further scrutinize these results considering that various biological and biogeochemical feedbacks are not yet integrated within Earth system models.

  5. Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2012-09-01

    A global perspective is developed on a number of high impact climate extremes in 2010 through diagnostic studies of the anomalies, diabatic heating, and global energy and water cycles that demonstrate relationships among variables and across events. Natural variability, especially ENSO, and global warming from human influences together resulted in very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in several places that played a vital role in subsequent developments. Record high SSTs in the Northern Indian Ocean in May 2010, the Gulf of Mexico in August 2010, the Caribbean in September 2010, and north of Australia in December 2010 provided a source of unusually abundant atmospheric moisture for nearby monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan, Colombia, and Queensland. The resulting anomalous diabatic heating in the northern Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans altered the atmospheric circulation by forcing quasi-stationary Rossby waves and altering monsoons. The anomalous monsoonal circulations had direct links to higher latitudes: from Southeast Asia to southern Russia, and from Colombia to Brazil. Strong convection in the tropical Atlantic in northern summer 2010 was associated with a Rossby wave train that extended into Europe creating anomalous cyclonic conditions over the Mediterranean area while normal anticyclonic conditions shifted downstream where they likely interacted with an anomalously strong monsoon circulation, helping to support the persistent atmospheric anticyclonic regime over Russia. This set the stage for the "blocking" anticyclone and associated Russian heat wave and wild fires. Attribution is limited by shortcomings in models in replicating monsoons, teleconnections and blocking.

  6. Extreme Rivers for Future Climates - Simulation Using Spatial Weather Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, Leszek; Kosierb, Ryszard; Iwański, Sławomir; Jelonek, Leszek

    2014-05-01

    In this paper an application of spatial weather generator for estimation of probability distributions changes of river flows for selected climate change scenarios and different time horizons are presented. The main studies for the Kaczawa river basin located in Southwest region of Poland are carried out. For the estimation of probability distribution river flow, daily data of SR solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and total precipitation were obtained for sixteen stations of hydrological network from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. In addition, daily data of flows from 6 closing water-gauges (partial catchments) were collected. Idea of flow simulation in the Kaczawa river catchment for future climate conditions given by different scenario shall be presented in the paper. First, on the basis of 25-years data series (1981-2005) for 16 stations of meteorological network within or around the Kaczawa river catchment basic climatology characteristics required by weather generator are computed. Then, spatial correlations between variables and stations are added to the characteristics. Next, on the basis of information coming from three climate change scenarios (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) for years 2040, 2060 and 2080 basic climatology characteristics are modified. Then, spatial weather generator SWGEN is used to produce 500 years of synthetic data for 16 stations, given time horizon and scenario. The year 2000 as the background of potential changes in river flow is used together with 500 years of synthetic data. Next, generated data are applied to hydrological model Mike SHE to simulate daily flows for closing water-gauges. The flow are evaluated with different temporal step and characterized by pdf functions. The application of spatial weather generator SWGEN combined with hydrological rainfall-runoff model (Mike SHE Ed. 2008) and climate change scenario, gives various possibilities to study changes in the river catchment coming up to 60

  7. Solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance: Present, past, and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lean, J. L.; Woods, T. N.; Eparvier, F. G.; Meier, R. R.; Strickland, D. J.; Correira, J. T.; Evans, J. S.

    2011-01-01

    New models of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance variability are constructed in 1 nm bins from 0 to 120 nm using multiple regression of the Mg II and F10.7 solar activity indices with irradiance observations made during the descending phase of cycle 23. The models have been used to reconstruct EUV spectra daily since 1950, annually since 1610, to forecast daily EUV irradiance and to estimate future levels in cycle 24. A two-component model developed by scaling the observed rotational modulation of the two solar indices underestimates the solar cycle changes that the Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) reports at wavelengths shorter than 40 nm and longer than 80 nm. A three-component model implemented by including an additional term derived from the smoothed Mg II index better reproduces the measurements at all wavelengths. The three-component model is consistent with variations in the EUV energy from 0 to 45 nm that produces the far ultraviolet (FUV) terrestrial dayglow observed by the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI). However, the spectral structure of this third component is complex, and its origin is uncertain. Analogous two- and three-component models are also developed with absolute scales determined by the NRLEUV2 spectrum of the quiet Sun rather than by the SEE average spectrum. Assessment of the EUV absolute spectrum and variability of the four different models indicate that during solar cycle 23, the EUV irradiance (0 to 120 nm) increased 100 ± 30%, from 2.9 ± 0.2 to 5.8 ± 0.9 mWm-2, and may have been as low as 1.9 ± 0.5 mWm-2 during the 17th-century Maunder Minimum. Near the peak of upcoming solar cycle 24, EUV irradiance is expected to increase 40% to 80% above the 2008 minimum values.

  8. Urban Heat Island phenomenon in extreme continental climate (Astana, Kazakhstan)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konstantinov, Pavel; Akhmetova, Alina

    2015-04-01

    Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is well known in scientific literature since first half of the 19th century [1]. By now a wide number of world capitals is described from climatological point of view, especially in mid-latitudes. In beginning of XXI century new studies focus on heat island of tropical cities. However dynamics UHI in extreme continental climates is insufficiently investigated, due to the fact that there isn't large cities in Europe and Northern America within that climate type. In this paper we investigate seasonal and diurnal dynamics UHI intensity for Astana, capital city of Kazakhstan (population larger than 835 000 within the city) including UHI intensity changes on different time scales. Now (since 1998) Astana is the second coldest capital city in the world after Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia [3] For this study we use the UHI investigation technology, described in [2]. According to this paper, we selected three stations: one located into city in high and midrise buildings area (including extensive lowrise and high-energy industrial - LCZ classification) and two others located in rural site (sparsely built or open-set and lightweight lowrise according LCZ classification). Also these stations must be close by distance (less than 100 km) and altitude. Therefore, first for Astana city were obtained numerical evaluations for UHI climate dynamics, UHI dependence of synoptic situations and total UHI climatology on monthly and daily averages. References: 1.Howard, L. (1833) The Climate of London, Deduced from Meteorological Observations. Volume 2, London. 2.Kukanova E.A., Konstantinov P.I. An urban heat islands climatology in Russia and linkages to the climate change In Geophysical Research Abstracts, volume 16 of EGU General Assembly, pages EGU2014-10833-1, Germany, 2014. Germany. 3.www.pogoda.ru.net

  9. Extreme Heat and Health: Perspectives from Health Service Providers in Rural and Remote Communities in South Australia

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Susan; Bi, Peng; Newbury, Jonathan; Robinson, Guy; Pisaniello, Dino; Saniotis, Arthur; Hansen, Alana

    2013-01-01

    Among the challenges for rural communities and health services in Australia, climate change and increasing extreme heat are emerging as additional stressors. Effective public health responses to extreme heat require an understanding of the impact on health and well-being, and the risk or protective factors within communities. This study draws on lived experiences to explore these issues in eleven rural and remote communities across South Australia, framing these within a socio-ecological model. Semi-structured interviews with health service providers (n = 13), and a thematic analysis of these data, has identified particular challenges for rural communities and their health services during extreme heat. The findings draw attention to the social impacts of extreme heat in rural communities, the protective factors (independence, social support, education, community safety), and challenges for adaptation (vulnerabilities, infrastructure, community demographics, housing and local industries). With temperatures increasing across South Australia, there is a need for local planning and low-cost strategies to address heat-exacerbating factors in rural communities, to minimise the impact of extreme heat in the future. PMID:24173140

  10. Extreme heat and health: perspectives from health service providers in rural and remote communities in South Australia.

    PubMed

    Williams, Susan; Bi, Peng; Newbury, Jonathan; Robinson, Guy; Pisaniello, Dino; Saniotis, Arthur; Hansen, Alana

    2013-11-01

    Among the challenges for rural communities and health services in Australia, climate change and increasing extreme heat are emerging as additional stressors. Effective public health responses to extreme heat require an understanding of the impact on health and well-being, and the risk or protective factors within communities. This study draws on lived experiences to explore these issues in eleven rural and remote communities across South Australia, framing these within a socio-ecological model. Semi-structured interviews with health service providers (n = 13), and a thematic analysis of these data, has identified particular challenges for rural communities and their health services during extreme heat. The findings draw attention to the social impacts of extreme heat in rural communities, the protective factors (independence, social support, education, community safety), and challenges for adaptation (vulnerabilities, infrastructure, community demographics, housing and local industries). With temperatures increasing across South Australia, there is a need for local planning and low-cost strategies to address heat-exacerbating factors in rural communities, to minimise the impact of extreme heat in the future. PMID:24173140

  11. Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

  12. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  13. Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century.

    PubMed

    White, M A; Diffenbaugh, N S; Jones, G V; Pal, J S; Giorgi, F

    2006-07-25

    Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wine-producing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35 degrees C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies. PMID:16840557

  14. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Widlansky, Matthew J.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-01-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño–related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise. PMID:26601272

  15. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    PubMed

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise. PMID:26601272

  16. Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

    PubMed

    Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk. PMID:27081885

  17. The assessment of future extremes of air temperature to design EPR type power plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parey, S.; Hoang, T. T. H.; Dacunha-Castelle, D.

    2010-09-01

    EDF projects the construction of new EPR type nuclear power plants in Europe. These installations are likely to run until the second half of the century, and thus, it is necessary to think their dimensioning in taking current knowledge of climate change impact into account. This paper will present the study dedicated to the estimation of future extremes of air temperature by using the statistical extreme value theory. The adopted methodology consists firstly in comparing current climate temperature extremes between local observations and models at the nearest grid point. Then, if the extremes of both series are comparable, future extremes are derived from the modelled series for a future period. In parallel, the link between the evolution of the mean, variance and extremes is studied in the observation series. If a strong link is identified, future extremes are derived from the stationary extremes of the centred and normalised series and the changes in mean and variance given by climate models for the desired future period. The approach will be illustrated with an example of such an evaluation for an EPR project in the United Kingdom.

  18. Woven Thermal Protection System Based Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology (HEEET)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellerby, Donald; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Stackpoole, Margaret; Chinnapongse, Ronald; Munk, Michelle; Dillman, Robert; Feldman, Jay; Prabhu, Dinesh; Beerman, Adam

    2013-01-01

    NASA's future robotic missions utilizing an entry system into Venus and the outer planets, namely, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, result in extremely high entry conditions that exceed the capabilities of state of the art low to mid density ablators such as PICA or Avcoat. Therefore mission planners typically assume the use of a fully dense carbon phenolic heat shield similar to what was flown on Pioneer Venus and Galileo. Carbon phenolic is a robust TPS material however its high density and relatively high thermal conductivity constrain mission planners to steep entries, with high heat fluxes and pressures and short entry durations, in order for CP to be feasible from a mass perspective. The high entry conditions pose challenges for certification in existing ground based test facilities and the longer-term sustainability of CP will continue to pose challenges. In 2012 the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) in NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate funded NASA ARC to investigate the feasibility of a Woven Thermal Protection System (WTPS) to meet the needs of NASA's most challenging entry missions. This project was highly successful demonstrating that a Woven TPS solution compares favorably to CP in performance in simulated reentry environments and provides the opportunity to manufacture graded materials that should result in overall reduced mass solutions and enable a much broader set of missions than does CP. Building off the success of the WTPS project GCDP has funded a follow on project to further mature and scale up the WTPS concept for insertion into future NASA robotic missions. The matured WTPS will address the CP concerns associated with ground based test limitations and sustainability. This presentation will briefly discuss results from the WTPS Project and the plans for WTPS maturation into a heat-shield for extreme entry environment.

  19. Woven Thermal Protection System Based Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology (HEEET)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chinnapongse, Ronald; Ellerbe, Donald; Stackpoole, Maragaret; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Beerman, Adam; Feldman, Jay; Peterson Keith; Prabhu, Dinesh; Dillman, Robert; Munk, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    NASA's future robotic missions utilizing an entry system into Venus and the outer planets, namely, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, result in extremely severe entry conditions that exceed the capabilities of state of the art low to mid density ablators such as PICA or Avcoat. Therefore mission planners typically assume the use of a fully dense carbon phenolic heat shield similar to what was flown on Pioneer Venus and Galileo. Carbon phenolic (CP) is a robust TPS material however its high density and relatively high thermal conductivity constrain mission planners to steep entries, with high heat fluxes and pressures and short entry durations, in order for CP to be feasible from a mass perspective. The high entry conditions pose challenges for certification in existing ground based test facilities and the longer-­-term sustainability of CP will continue to pose challenges. In 2012 the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) in NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate funded NASA ARC to investigate the feasibility of a Woven Thermal Protection System (WTPS) to meet the needs of NASA's most challenging entry missions. This project was highly successful demonstrating that a Woven TPS solution compares favorably to CP in performance in simulated reentry environments and provides the opportunity to manufacture graded materials that should result in overall reduced mass solutions and enable a much broader set of missions than does CP. Building off the success of the WTPS project GCDP has funded a follow on project to further mature and scale up the WTPS concept for insertion into future NASA robotic missions. The matured WTPS will address the CP concerns associated with ground based test limitations and sustainability. This presentation will briefly discuss results from the WTPS Project and the plans for WTPS maturation into a heat-­-shield for extreme entry environment.

  20. Extreme Adaptive Optics Testbed: Results and Future Work

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J W; Sommargren, G; Poyneer, L; Macintosh, B; Severson, S; Dillon, D; Sheinis, A; Palmer, D; Kasdin, J; Olivier, S

    2004-07-15

    'Extreme' adaptive optics systems are optimized for ultra-high-contrast applications, such as ground-based extrasolar planet detection. The Extreme Adaptive Optics Testbed at UC Santa Cruz is being used to investigate and develop technologies for high-contrast imaging, especially wavefront control. A simple optical design allows us to minimize wavefront error and maximize the experimentally achievable contrast before progressing to a more complex set-up. A phase shifting diffraction interferometer is used to measure wavefront errors with sub-nm precision and accuracy. We have demonstrated RMS wavefront errors of <1.3 nm and a contrast of >10{sup -7} over a substantial region using a shaped pupil. Current work includes the installation and characterization of a 1024-actuator Micro-Electro-Mechanical- Systems (MEMS) deformable mirror, manufactured by Boston Micro-Machines, which will be used for wavefront control. In our initial experiments we can flatten the deformable mirror to 1.8-nm RMS wavefront error within a control radius of 5-13 cycles per aperture. Ultimately this testbed will be used to test all aspects of the system architecture for an extrasolar planet-finding AO system.

  1. Heat-related deaths after an extreme heat event--four states, 2012, and United States, 1999-2009.

    PubMed

    2013-06-01

    On June 29, 2012, a rapidly moving line of intense thunderstorms with high winds swept across the midwestern and eastern United States, causing widespread damage and power outages. Afterward, the area experienced extreme heat, with maximum temperatures exceeding 100°F (37.8°C). This report describes 32 heat-related deaths in Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia that occurred during the 2 weeks following the storms and power outages. Median age of the decedents was 65 years, and most of the excessive heat exposures occurred within homes. During 1999-2009, an annual average of 658 heat-related deaths occurred in the United States. Heat-related deaths are preventable, and heat response plans should be in place before an extreme heat event (EHE). Interventions should focus on identifying and limiting heat exposure among vulnerable populations. PMID:23739336

  2. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, William

    2016-04-01

    The increasing use of prescribed fire by land managers and increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change requires an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This study describes a new model of soil evaporation and transport of heat, soil moisture, and water vapor, for use during fires. The model is based on conservation equations of energy and mass and its performance is evaluated against dynamic soil temperature and moisture observations obtained during laboratory experiments on soil samples exposed to surface heat fluxes ranging between 10,000 and 50,000 Wm2. In general, the model simulates the observed temperature dynamics quite well, but is less precise (but still good) at capturing the moisture dynamics. The model emulates the observed increase in soil moisture ahead of the drying front and the hiatus in the soil temperature rise during the strongly evaporative stage of drying. It also captures the observed rapid evaporation of soil moisture that occurs at relatively low temperatures (50-90 C), and can provide quite accurate predictions of the total amount of soil moisture evaporated during the laboratory experiments. Overall, this new model provides a much more physically realistic simulation over all previous models developed for the same purpose.

  3. High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Wagner, Sven; Emeis, Stefan

    2015-10-01

    Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021-2050) compared to a reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1-3 °C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase of cooling and decrease of heating degree days indicate the possible impact on urban energy consumption under future climate conditions.

  4. Analysis of meteorological parameters of different extreme heat waves

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Heat waves have caused severe losses in beef cattle feedlots and dairies in different areas of the cattle producing areas of the world. A comparison of climatic conditions that have resulted in cattle deaths has been completed. Analyses of lethal heat waves in northeast Nebraska in 1999 and north ...

  5. Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

  6. Warm-season diurnal circulations and heat extremes over the northwest U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, Matthew C.

    Summer synoptic circulations over the northwest U.S., and their interactions with regional terrain, land/water contrasts, and surface heating, give rise to a variety of fascinating meteorological phenomena, many of which have yet to be explored. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how projected future warming associated with increased greenhouse gases will modify these important features. The work herein seeks to ameliorate this with a comprehensive examination of two important aspects of northwest U.S. summer weather and climate: diurnal circulations and changes to the conditions associated with extreme temperatures under anthropogenic global warming. To simulate regional diurnal circulations, GFS model output was obtained for July and August 2009-2011. These data were categorized into hour of the day, composited, and the resulting files were used to initialize and provide boundary conditions to a WRF (version 3.5) model run. It was shown that, when compared to observations, this WRF run sufficiently simulates average diurnal variability. Using this simulation, the diurnal circulations of the region were described, including several important wind features within the Strait of Juan de Fuca, the Snoqualmie Pass, and the Columbia River Gorge. Also, regional nocturnal low-level wind maxima are described, including one over the northern Willamette valley and another over the high plateau of eastern Oregon. Recent work by the authors has elucidated the physical mechanisms that drive heat extremes over the northwest U.S., including the necessity of a ridge aloft, with associated subsidence and advection warming. Also, easterly flow is crucial for keeping the marine air at bay, and producing downslope flow and adiabatic warming on the western slopes of regional north-south terrain barriers. Given the rising temperatures projected under anthropogenic global warming, how are these conditions, and associated low-level temperature distributions, projected to change? As a

  7. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2015-03-01

    With increasing use of prescribed fire by land managers and increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change comes the need to improve modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing a one-dimensional non-equilibrium model of soil evaporation and transport of heat, soil moisture, and water vapor, for use with surface forcing ranging from daily solar cycles to extreme conditions encountered during fires. The model employs a linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme for the conservation equations of energy and mass and its performance is evaluated against dynamic soil temperature and moisture observations obtained during laboratory experiments on soil samples exposed to surface heat fluxes ranging between 10 000 and 50 000 W m-2. The Hertz-Knudsen equation is the basis for constructing the model's non-equilibrium evaporative source term. The model includes a dynamic residual soil moisture as a function of temperature and soil water potential, which allows the model to capture some of the dynamic aspects of the strongly bound soil moisture that seems to require temperatures well beyond 150 °C to fully evaporate. Furthermore, the model emulates the observed increase in soil moisture ahead of the drying front and the hiatus in the soil temperature rise during the strongly evaporative stage of drying. It also captures the observed rapid evaporation of soil moisture that occurs at relatively low temperatures (50-90 °C). Sensitivity analyses indicate that the model's success results primarily from the use of a temperature and moisture potential dependent condensation coefficient in the evaporative source term. The model's solution for water vapor density (and vapor pressure), which can exceed one standard atmosphere, cannot be experimentally verified, but they are supported by results from (earlier and very different) models developed for somewhat different purposes and for different porous media. Overall, this non

  8. Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, A. G.; Hudson, D.; Wheeler, M. C.; Alves, O.; Hendon, H. H.; Pook, M. J.; Risbey, J. S.

    2014-10-01

    We assess the occurrence and probability of extreme heat over Australia in association with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which have previously been shown to be key drivers of intra-seasonal variations of Australian climate. In this study, extreme heat events are defined as occurring when weekly-mean maximum temperature anomalies exceed the 90th percentile. The observed probability of exceedance is reduced during the positive phase of the SAM and enhanced during the negative phase of the SAM over most of Australia. Persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea are described in terms of (1) split-flow blocking at 160°E and (2) high pressure systems located in the vicinity of the subtropical ridge (STRHs), about 10° north of the split-flow blocking region, for which we devise a simple index. Split-flow blocks and STRHs have contrasting impacts on the occurrence of extreme heat over Australia, with STRHs showing enhanced probability of upper decile heat events over southern Australia in all seasons. The observed probability of an upper decile heat event varies according to MJO phase and time of year, with the greatest impact of the MJO on extreme heat occurring over southern Australia (including the Mallee agricultural region) in spring during phases 2-3. We show that this modulation of the probability of extreme heat by the SAM, persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the MJO is well simulated in the Bureau of Meteorology dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model POAMA-2 at lead times of 2-3 weeks. We further show that predictability of heat extremes increases in association with the negative SAM phase, STRH and MJO, thus providing a basis for skilful intra-seasonal prediction of heat extremes.

  9. Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Andrew D.; Black, Mitchell T.; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich M.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Harrington, Luke J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

    2016-04-01

    Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.

  10. Formation of extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilinina, N. D.; Gulev, S. K.; Gavrikov, A. V.

    2016-01-01

    The role of extreme surface turbulent fluxes in total oceanic heat loss in the North Atlantic is studied. The atmospheric circulation patterns enhancing ocean-atmosphere heat flux in regions with significant contributions of the extreme heat fluxes (up to 60% of the net heat loss) are analyzed. It is shown that extreme heat fluxes in the Gulf Stream and the Greenland and Labrador Seas occur in zones with maximal air pressure gradients, i.e., in cyclone-anticyclone interaction zones.

  11. Self-contained heat rejection module for future spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fleming, M. L.; Williams, J. L.; Baskett, J. D.; Leach, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    This paper discusses development of a Self-Contained Heat Rejection Module (SHRM) which can be used on a wide variety of future spacecraft launched by the space shuttle orbiter. The SHRM contains radiators which are deployed by a scissor-mechanism and the flow equipment including pumps, accumulator, by-pass valves, and controllers necessary to reject heat from those radiators. Heat transfer between SHRM and the parent vehicle is effected by a contact heat exchanger. This device provides heat transfer between two separate flow loops through a mechanical connection. This approach reduces the time required to attach the SHRM to the payload, and increases the reliability of the SHRM flow loop since breaking into the fluid system in the field is not required. The SHRM concept also includes a refrigeration system to increase heat rejection capacity in adverse environments, or to provide for a lower return temperature, down to -23 C.

  12. A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horton, Radley M.; Mankin, Justin S.; Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; Raymond, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

  13. Futures markets and petroleum supply. A study of heating oil futures

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, R.D.

    1986-04-02

    The study evaluates the month-to-month performance of the wholesale heating oil market in the East Coast region over the past three winters as influenced by the price of heating oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for New York Harbor delivery. The economic basis for the analysis is derived from a conceptual model of petroleum refiner and marketer behavior. In this model, futures trading and cash market plans are described as being jointly formulated to maximize profits and minimize risk. A comparison of price and inventory levels indicated by the model for a ''no futures'' and a ''futures'' case provides an indication of how the introduction of futures trading may have influenced petroleum markets. The study demonstrates that the ''no futures'' model provides a better explanation of actual cash market prices than does the ''futures'' model, but that the ''futures'' model provides a better explanation of inventory levels. Estimates of inventory change support a finding that petroleum suppliers are using futures to manage risk in a manner consistent with the ''futures'' model described in this paper. The fact that the ''no futures'' model provides a marginally better explanation of cash prices, however, suggests that risk attitudes still influence the petroleum supply and demand decisions of many market participants. The ''no futures'' model always performs best when the futures price is used to represent price expectations, underscoring the importance of the futures market as an information source, even to those businesses that do not trade in futures. At the same time, the magnitudes of the differences between the ''futures'' and the ''no futures'' estimates of cash prices and primary inventory change are very small, suggesting the overall influence of futures trading on petroleum supply has not been great. This conclusion is consistent with industry reports that refiners are only peripherally in the refined product futures markets.

  14. Recent Advances in Regional Climate System Modeling and ClimateChange Analyses of Extreme Heat

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2004-09-24

    During the period May 2003 to May 2004, there were two CEC/PIER funded primary research activities by the Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group/Earth Science Division at LBNL. These activities are the implementation and testing of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model (CLM) into MM5, and the analysis of extreme heat days under a new set of climate simulations. The new version of MM5,MM5-CLM, has been tested for a 90 day snowmelt period in the northwestern U.S. Results show that this new code upgrade, as compared to the MM5-NOAH, has improved snowmelt, temperature, and precipitation when compared to observations. These are due in part to a subgrid scheme,advanced snow processes, and advanced vegetation. The climate change analysis is the upper and lower IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, representing fossil fuel intensive and energy conserving future emission scenarios, and medium and low sensitivity Global Climate Models. Results indicate that California cities will see increases in the number of heat wave and temperature threshold days from two to six times.These results may be viewed as potential outcomes based on today's decisions on emissions.

  15. Assessing the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature extremes on the current and future ecohydrology of grassland ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.; Ocheltree, T.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme weather events have profound impacts on water and carbon cycling. However, events of similar magnitude may have very different impacts depending upon the timing of the event in the phenological cycle. We assess these impacts of extreme daily weather events including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature using data collected from the Konza Prairie Long Term Ecological Research site in the central U.S. We utilize the long term weather and biomass collection data at the LTER site to examine the historical variability of extreme events and the impacts on annual carbon dynamics. Timescales of interactions between daily weather and fluxes are quantified through a multiscale information theoretic approach. In addition, we quantify the impacts of the timing and magnitude of extreme events through a Critical Climate Period (CCP) analysis. Results indicate a strong sensitivity to spring precipitation and summer temperature. Using six years of eddy covariance data, we can isolate more of the biophysical mechanisms governing the responses to extreme weather events. Of particular interest is the heat wave of July, 2011, where daily maximum temperatures were over 38 C for 24 consecutive days and resulted in drastically reduced above ground carbon allocation than in previous years. In addition, we employ the Agro-BGC model to assess the biophysical processes responsible for determining the response of water and carbon dynamics to extreme weather events. This is done by employing a stochastic weather generator with prescribed changes in annual precipitation and temperature conistent with GCM projections. Developing a more thorough understanding of extreme events and the differential responses due to the timing and magnitude of the events will potentially assist in the mitigation of future climate change.

  16. Urban effects on extreme heat in a mid-sized North American city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schatz, J.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2013-12-01

    As climate change drives global temperatures higher, heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, particularly in cities where the urban heat island effect can further raise local temperatures. Cities contain 50% of the global population and 80% of the North American population, and these percentages are projected to reach 70% globally and 87% in North America by 2030. This creates a need to understand the nature of heat events not just globally but also within cities where local climate variation can be substantial. That local variation could prove highly consequential for heat adaptation in cities, making it important to understand the dynamics of extreme heat within urban landscapes. Our study addresses this need by characterizing 400m-resolution variation in air temperature and heat index during a historically hot year in Madison, Wisconsin. Madison is a mid-sized temperate city with a metropolitan area population of 568,593. It is surrounded by several large lakes and a complex rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In 2012, Madison experienced its hottest year and third hottest summer on record, with the Madison airport reporting 39 days exceeding 90°F compared to an average of 9 days. In March 2012, we installed 135 Onset HOBO ProV2 T/RH sensors across the Madison area to record air temperature and relative humidity at 15 minute intervals. The data from this network provides a unique opportunity to study small-scale spatial variation in the magnitude and duration of hot conditions that are projected to become more common in the future. Our sensors recorded substantial variation in the magnitude and duration of high temperatures and heat indices during the summer of 2012. For temperature, the densest parts of the city experienced >200 hours ≥90°F compared to <100 hours in many rural areas. Temperatures ≥100°F occurred up to 22 hours in some parts of the city versus 0 hours in much of the rural

  17. Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Heaviside, Clare; Tsangari, Haritini; Paschalidou, Anastasia; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kassomenos, Pavlos; Georgiou, Kyriakos E; Yamasaki, Edna N

    2016-11-01

    Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate. PMID:27376918

  18. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  19. Climate Model Simulation of Present and Future Extreme Events in Latin America and the Caribbean: What Spatial Resolution is Required?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, C. M.; Oglesby, R. J.; Mawalagedara, R.; Mohammad Abadi Kamarei, A.

    2015-12-01

    Latin America and the Caribbean are at risk of extreme climate events, including flooding rains, damaging winds, drought, heat waves, and in high elevation mountainous regions, excessive snowfalls. The causes of these events are numerous - flooding rains and damaging winds are often associated with tropical cyclones, but also can occur, either separately or in tandem, due to smaller, more localized storms. Similarly, heat waves and droughts can be large scale or localized, and frequently occur together (as excessive drying can lead to enhanced heating, while enhanced heating in turn promotes additional drying). Even in the tropics, extreme snow and ice events can have severe consequences due to avalanches, and also impact water resources. Understanding and modeling the climate controls behind these extreme events requires consideration of a range of time and space scales. A common strategy is to use a global climate model (GCM) to simulate the large-scale (~100km) daily atmospheric controls on extreme events. A limited area, high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is then employed to dynamically downscale the results, so as to better incorporate the influence of topography and, secondarily, the nature of the land cover. But what resolution is required to provide the necessary results, i.e., minimize biases due to improper resolution? In conjunction with our partners from participating Latin American and Caribbean nations, we have made an extensive series of simulations, both region-wide and for individual countries, using the WRF regional climate model to downscale output from a variety of GCMs, as well as Reanalyses (as a proxy for observations). The simulations driven by the Reanalyses are used for robust model verification against actual weather station observations. The simulations driven by GCMs are designed to provide projections of future climate, including importantly how the nature and number of extreme events may change through coming decades. Our

  20. Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Emergency Department Visits in North Carolina (2007-2011).

    PubMed

    Fuhrmann, Christopher M; Sugg, Margaret M; Konrad, Charles E; Waller, Anna

    2016-02-01

    Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. Extreme heat also affects human health through heat stress and can exacerbate underlying medical conditions that lead to increased morbidity and mortality. In this study, data on emergency department (ED) visits for heat-related illness (HRI) and other selected diseases were analyzed during three heat events across North Carolina from 2007 to 2011. These heat events were identified based on the issuance and verification of heat products from local National Weather Service forecast offices (i.e. Heat Advisory, Heat Watch, and Excessive Heat Warning). The observed number of ED visits during these events were compared to the expected number of ED visits during several control periods to determine excess morbidity resulting from extreme heat. All recorded diagnoses were analyzed for each ED visit, thereby providing insight into the specific pathophysiological mechanisms and underlying health conditions associated with exposure to extreme heat. The most common form of HRI was heat exhaustion, while the percentage of visits with heat stroke was relatively low (<10%). The elderly (>65 years of age) were at greatest risk for HRI during the early summer heat event (8.9 visits per 100,000), while young and middle age adults (18-44 years of age) were at greatest risk during the mid-summer event (6.3 visits per 100,000). Many of these visits were likely due to work-related exposure. The most vulnerable demographic during the late summer heat event was adolescents (15-17 years of age), which may relate to the timing of organized sports. This demographic also exhibited the highest visit rate for HRI among all three heat events (10.5 visits per 100,000). Significant increases (p < 0.05) in visits with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were noted during the three heat events (3-8%). The greatest increases were found in visits with hypotension during the late summer event (23%) and sequelae during

  1. Climate projections of future extreme events accounting for modelling uncertainties and historical simulation biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Simon J.; Murphy, James M.; Sexton, David M. H.; Harris, Glen R.

    2014-11-01

    A methodology is presented for providing projections of absolute future values of extreme weather events that takes into account key uncertainties in predicting future climate. This is achieved by characterising both observed and modelled extremes with a single form of non-stationary extreme value (EV) distribution that depends on global mean temperature and which includes terms that account for model bias. Such a distribution allows the prediction of future "observed" extremes for any period in the twenty-first century. Uncertainty in modelling future climate, arising from a wide range of atmospheric, oceanic, sulphur cycle and carbon cycle processes, is accounted for by using probabilistic distributions of future global temperature and EV parameters. These distributions are generated by Bayesian sampling of emulators with samples weighted by their likelihood with respect to a set of observational constraints. The emulators are trained on a large perturbed parameter ensemble of global simulations of the recent past, and the equilibrium response to doubled CO2. Emulated global EV parameters are converted to the relevant regional scale through downscaling relationships derived from a smaller perturbed parameter regional climate model ensemble. The simultaneous fitting of the EV model to regional model data and observations allows the characterisation of how observed extremes may change in the future irrespective of biases that may be present in the regional models simulation of the recent past climate. The clearest impact of a parameter perturbation in this ensemble was found to be the depth to which plants can access water. Members with shallow soils tend to be biased hot and dry in summer for the observational period. These biases also appear to have an impact on the potential future response for summer temperatures with some members with shallow soils having increases for extremes that reduce with extreme severity. We apply this methodology for London, using the

  2. Simulations of Future Heat stress in the Northeast in a Convection Resolving Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huber, M.; Buzan, J. R.; Komurcu, M.; Krishnan, S.; McCabe, E.

    2015-12-01

    Heat stress is a chiefly a byproduct of temperature and humidity extremes and can be phrased in terms of wetbulb or dewpoint temperature. Consequently, it is a buoyancy related atmospheric variable which could alternatively be expressed as something like subcloud layer entropy or convective available potential energy (CAPE). Expressed in this latter way, predicting heat stress extreme events is equivalent to understanding the distribution of events in which convection is inhibited. Our goal in this study is to use a convection resolving model (the Weather Research and Forecasting Model at 3km grid spacing) to predict heat stress in future climate scenarios. The primary benefit relative to simply using a global climate model output is the removal of the ad hoc treatment of convective inhibition imposed by parameterization of convection in course resolution simulations. We focus on heat stress metrics relevant for humans and livestock within the Northeast of the U.S. and demonstrate the difference in projected heat stress engendered by explicitly resolving convection.

  3. Extremely heat tolerant photosymbiosis in a shallow marine benthic foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Christiane; Danna, Titelboim; Janett, Brandt; Raphael, Morard; Barak, Herut; Sigal, Abramovich; Ahuva, Almogi-Labin; Michal, Kucera

    2016-04-01

    Thermal stress leads to the loss of algal symbionts (bleaching) in many shallow marine calcifiers including foraminifera. The bleaching threshold often occurs at water temperatures, which are likely to be exceeded in the near future due to global warming. Preadaptation represents one mechanism allowing photosymbiotic organisms to persist under warmer conditions, providing the tolerance can be carried to new habitats. Here we provide evidence for the existence of such adaptation in the benthic foraminifera Pararotalia calcariformata recently discovered in the eastern Mediterranean. We identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We show that in the field, the foraminifera retains its pigments at a thermally polluted site, where peak water temperatures reach 36°C. To test whether this tolerance represents a widespread adaptation, we conducted manipulative experiments exposing populations from an unpolluted site to elevated temperatures for up to three weeks. The populations were kept in co-culture with the more thermally sensitive diatom-bearing foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera. Reduced photosynthetic activity in A. lobifera occurred at 32°C whereas photochemical stress in P. calcariformata was first observed during exposure to 36°C and chronic photoinhibition (but not mortality) first occurred at 42°C. Survivorship was high in all treatments, and growth was observed under thermal conditions similar to summer maxima at the thermally polluted site (35-36°C). The photosymbiosis in P. calcariformata is unusually thermally tolerant for a photosymbiont-bearing eukaryote. The thermal tolerance of this photosymbiosis is present in a natural environment where its thermal threshold is never realized. These observations imply that photosymbiosis in marine protists can respond to elevated temperatures by drawing on a pool of naturally occurring pre-adaptations. It also provides a perspective on the massive occurrence of

  4. Future changes in atmospheric circulation types and related precipitation extremes in Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Homann, Markus; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The statistical evaluation of the relationships between atmospheric circulation types and areal precipitation events took place in the context of an international project called WETRAX (Weather patterns, storm tracks and related precipitation extremes). The aim of the project was to estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions. For parts of southern Central Europe, a gridded daily precipitation set with 6km horizontal resolution has been generated for the period 1951-2006 by the Austrian Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG). To determine regions with similar precipitation variability, a S-mode principal component analysis has been applied. Extreme precipitation events are defined by the 95% percentile, based on regional arithmetic means of daily precipitation. Large-scale atmospheric circulation types have been derived by different statistical methods and variables using the COST733 classification software and gridded daily NCEP1 reanalysis data. To evaluate the performance of a particular circulation type classification with respect to regional precipitation extremes, multiple regression models have been derived between the circulation type frequencies as predictor variables and monthly frequencies of extreme precipitation as well as monthly rainfall amounts from these events. To estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions, multiple regression models are applied to different projected GCM predictor data. Thus, future changes in circulation type occurrence frequencies are transferred into assessments of future changes in precipitation extremes on a regional scale.

  5. Atmospheric Rivers in the CESM: Validation, Connections to Extreme Precipitation, and Projections for the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shields, C. A.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow, intense, and evolving filamentary structures responsible for transporting significant amounts of moisture from the tropics to mid-latitudes and are often associated with extreme winter-time precipitation for regions such as the West Coast of the United States. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) captures these synoptic scale structures as well as their extreme precipitation. The CESM version employed utilizes high resolution atmosphere/land components (0.5o) coupled to the standard (1o) ocean/ice components. The high resolution atmosphere is able to more accurately represent extreme, regional precipitation. Cataloguing AR events in long-term climate simulations where centuries of data are produced requires an automated AR-identification algorithm that captures the spatial and temporal structures of these events. These algorithms may vary in complexity but all necessitate the inclusion of water vapor content thresholds. The adoption of observationally based empirical threshold values may not translate well to future climate projections as increased temperatures change the background water vapor content (Clausius-Clapeyron relationship). Here, we evaluate spatial and temporal characteristics of Western U.S. ARs in CESM and compare them to observations. A variety of threshold definitions will be discussed which span observationally based values of water vapor content to values relative to the background state (more appropriate for future climate). Model simulated extreme precipitation related to AR's and results from the RCP8.5 future climate scenario will be shown.

  6. Vibroacoustic Analysis of Large Heat Rejection Radiators for Future Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larko, Jeffrey M.; McNelis, Mark E.; Hughes, William O.

    2006-01-01

    Spacecraft structures such as antennas, solar arrays and radiator panels significantly respond to high acoustic levels seen at lift-off. Some future spacecraft may utilize nuclear electric propulsion that require large radiator panels to reject waste heat. A vibroacoustic assessment was performed for two different radiator panel designs. Results from the analysis of the two designs using different analytical approaches are presented and discussed.

  7. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2013-04-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  8. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education. PMID:23619577

  9. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  10. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  11. Whole-body heating decreases skin vascular response to low orthostatic stress in the lower extremities.

    PubMed

    Yamazaki, Fumio; Nakayama, Yoshiro; Sone, Ryoko

    2006-04-01

    To elucidate the influence of heat stress on cutaneous vascular response in the lower extremities during orthostatic stress, a head-up tilt (HUT) test at angles of 15 degrees, 30 degrees, 45 degrees, and 60 degrees for 4 min each was conducted under normothermic control conditions followed by whole-body heat stress produced by a hot water-perfused suit in healthy volunteers. Skin blood flows (SkBF) in the forearm, thigh, and calf were monitored using laser-Doppler flowmetry throughout the experiment. Furthermore, to elucidate the effects of increased core and local skin temperatures on the local vascular response in calf skin under increasing orthostatic stress, the thigh was occluded at 20, 30, 50, 70, and 80 mmHg with a cuff in both the normothermic condition and the whole-body or local heating condition. Significant decreases in forearm SkBF during HUT were observed at an angle of 60 degrees during normothermia and at 30 degrees or more during heating. SkBF in the thigh and calf was decreased significantly by HUT at 15 degrees and above during normothermia, and there was no significant reduction of SkBF in these sites during HUT at the lower angles (15 degrees -45 degrees ) during whole-body heating. Significant decreases of calf SkBF were observed at cuff pressures of 20 mmHg and above during normothermia and of 30 mmHg and above during whole-body and local heating, respectively. These results suggest that SkBF in the lower extremities shows a marked reduction compared with the upper extremities during low orthostatic stress in normothermia, and the enhanced skin vasoconstrictor response in the lower extremities is diminished by both whole-body and local heat stress. PMID:16839449

  12. Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

    PubMed

    Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively). PMID:26370197

  13. The Challenges of Producing Societally-useful Projections of Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, K.; Redmond, K. T.; Karl, T. R.; Easterling, D. R.; Liang, X.

    2010-12-01

    The design of dams, roads, storm sewers, housing developments, and other types of infrastructure must consider the climatology of extreme precipitation. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates are needed for reservoir and spillway design where under-design would be catastrophic. Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) values are used in design situations where there is tradeoff between the losses arising from occasional exceedances of those values and the costs of building in additional resilience. An underlying consideration is that many such structures are build to last for many decades. Any structures built today are expected to last through a period of time when anthropogenically-forced changes in climate may be quite large. However, the uncertainties surrounding possible future changes in extreme precipitation climatology are also very large and reduction of those uncertainties is a major challenge. Possible avenues toward more reliable estimates of future changes in extreme precipitation climatology include the following: 1. Weather models, theoretical and expert analysis: : As an example, PMP estimates are derived in part from inclusion and maximization of all the major factors that influence precipitation rates and duration in well-tested empirical precipitation algorithms.. Future changes in some of these factors are likely to be amenable to theoretical consideration, such as water vapor availability. This factor is largely driven by temperature, both of the atmosphere and the ocean surface, and is much better defined in future climate models compared to mean precipitation. For these reasons, uncertainties about future changes in mean precipitation do not necessarily translate to uncertainties about extreme precipitation rates. 2. Climate model improvements: Accurate precipitation simulation poses a particular challenge for models, as relevant processes occur over a wide spectrum of spatial and temporal scales, including important processes at sub

  14. Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

    2016-07-01

    There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

  15. Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010

    PubMed Central

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historical (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County -King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis using a piece-wise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect that heat’s intensity has on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day versus a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages, all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect heat intensity has on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4 °C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly (less than 85) age groups experience significant risk for: nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, COPD and asthma hospitalizations. PMID:25719287

  16. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-01-01

    Background With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia’s population. Design Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees. PMID:23899408

  17. Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... Hazardous Materials Incidents Home Fires Household Chemical Emergencies Hurricanes Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants ... Hazardous Materials Incidents Home Fires Household Chemical Emergencies Hurricanes Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants ...

  18. Uncertainty analysis in future extreme flow projections in Jinhua River Basin, East China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y.; Tian, Y.; Booij, M.

    2013-12-01

    Uncertainties in extreme high flows originating from greenhouse gas emission scenarios, hydrological model structures and their parameters for the Jinhua River basin, East China are assessed. The baseline (1961-1990) and future (2011-2040) climates for A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios are downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) using the PRECIS Regional Climate Model with a spatial resolution of 50km×50km. A distribution-based bias correction method is applied to bias correct the PRECIS -derived temperature and precipitation. The bias corrected precipitation and temperature are then used as inputs for three hydrological models (GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang) to simulate extreme high flows in the study area. The parameter uncertainty is quantified by means of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method for each hydrological model for three emission scenarios. It is found that compared with the baseline period, the extreme high flows tend to decrease under scenario A1B, A2 and B2. The largest uncertainty is observed in the HBV model and the GR4J model has the smallest uncertainty. It is found that the major source of uncertainty in this study is from parameters, followed by the uncertainties from the hydrological model structure and the emission scenarios have the smallest uncertainty contribution to extreme high flows in this study. 90% confidence intervals of 50-year extreme hight flows under scenarios A1B, A2 and B2

  19. Future of landfalling atmospheric rivers with extreme precipitation in British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radic, V.; Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Gi, C.

    2014-12-01

    Synoptic weather patterns that enhance water vapour transport over North Pacific Ocean are common triggers for autumn flooding events in coastal British Columbia (BC). The bulk of this water vapor transport takes place through narrow corridors known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) that occur within the warm conveyor belt of extratropical cyclones. Global climate models (GCMs) simulate ARs to varying degrees, however, all GCMs can simulate the synoptic patterns that favor ARs development. Thus by looking into the synoptic patterns in GCMs one can indirectly investigate future changes in frequency and intensity of AR events, a goal that we have set for this study. First we evaluate the performance of five GCMs in simulating the synoptic patterns responsible for AR-extreme events (landfalling ARs in BC with extreme precipitation over the province). As reference data we used four reanalysis data-sets for the period 1979-2010. With the use of a clustering algorithm we identified characteristic daily patterns of integrated vapour transport (IVT) over the North Pacific Ocean, and further identified the IVT patterns linked to AR-extreme events. We find that for the period 1974-2005 all five GCMs are relatively unsuccessful in simulating the frequencies of these patterns, as well as total precipitation during the AR-extreme events. Despite the large range of projections and uncertainties, better performing GCMs agree in their projections for the end of the 21st century, simulating more frequent AR-extreme events, as well higher precipitation totals during these events. In the best performing model ensemble of three GCMs, the projections according to RCP4.5 emission scenario reveal an increase of AR-extreme events from 18% per extended fall season (Sep-Dec) in 1974-2005 to 22% in 2070-2100, while the seasonal (Sep-Dec) AR-extreme total precipitation averaged over BC increases by 44% between the two periods.

  20. Quantifying Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Resolved Synoptic Atmospheric Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Monier, E.; Entekhabi, D.

    2012-12-01

    An important question for climate change science is possible shifts in the extremes of regional water cycle, especially changes in patterns, intensity and/or frequency of extreme precipitation events. In this study, an analogue method is developed to help detect extreme precipitation events and their potential changes under future climate regimes without relying on the highly uncertain modeled precipitation. Our approach is based on the use of composite maps to identify the distinct synoptic and large-scale atmospheric conditions that lead to extreme precipitation events at local scales. The analysis of extreme daily precipitation events, exemplified in the south-central United States, is carried out using 62-yr (1948-2010) CPC gridded station data and NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Various aspects of the daily extremes are examined, including their historical ranking, associated common circulation features at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere, and moisture plumes. The scheme is first evaluated for the multiple climate model simulations of the 20th century from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive to determine whether the statistical nature of modeled precipitation events (i.e. the numbers of occurrences over each season) could well correspond to that of the observed. Further, the approach will be applied to the CMIP5 multi-model projections of various climate change scenarios (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios) in the next century to assess the potential changes in the probability of extreme precipitation events. The research results from this study should be of particular significance to help society develop adaptive strategies and prevent catastrophic losses.

  1. Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

  2. Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2015-05-01

    Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

  3. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  4. WRF-Cordex simulations for Europe: mean and extreme precipitation for present and future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2013-04-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, version 3.3.1, was used to perform the European domain Cordex simulations, at 50km resolution. A first simulation, forced by ERA-Interim (1989-2009), was carried out to evaluate the models performance to represent the mean and extreme precipitation in present European climate. This evaluation is based in the comparison of WRF results against the ECAD regular gridded dataset of daily precipitation. Results are comparable to recent studies with other models for the European region, at this resolution. For the same domain a control and a future scenario (RCP8.5) simulation was performed to assess the climate change impact on the mean and extreme precipitation. These regional simulations were forced by EC-EARTH model results, and, encompass the periods from 1960-2006 and 2006-2100, respectively.

  5. Heating dynamics and extreme ultraviolet radiation emission of laser-produced Sn plasmas

    SciTech Connect

    Yuspeh, S.; Sequoia, K. L.; Tao, Y.; Tillack, M. S.; Burdt, R. A.; Najmabadi, F.

    2010-06-28

    The impact of 1.064 mum laser absorption depth on the heating and in-band (2% bandwidth) 13.5 nm extreme ultraviolet emissions in Sn plasmas is investigated experimentally and numerically. In-band emission lasting longer than the laser pulse and separation between the laser absorption and in-band emission region are observed. Maximum efficiency is achieved by additional heating of the core of the plasma to allow the optimal temperature to expand to a lower and more optically thin density. This leads to higher temperature plasma that emits less in-band light as compared to CO{sub 2} produced plasma sources for the same application.

  6. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

  7. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010.

    PubMed

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A; Hom, Elizabeth K; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10% (1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69% (95% CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0°C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks. PMID:25956805

  8. Future changes in precipitation patterns and extremes: a model-based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsakis, Evangelos; Stamos, Iraklis; Anastassiadou, Kalliopi; Kammerer, Harald; Kaundinya, Ingo; Kohl, Bernhard; Kapsomenakis, John; Zerefos, Christos; Aifadopoulou, Georfia

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, the Earth has experienced abrupt climate changes, including changes of mean precipitation heights as well as precipitation extremes. It is very likely that the abrupt climate changes which are result of the increase of the greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration (IPCC 2007) will continue with an accelerate magnitude in the coming decades. The modern tool used to project the future climate change is General Circulation Models (GCMs). Due to computational resources limitations, the horizontal resolution of present day GCMs is quite low, usually in the order of hundreds of kilometers. In such a crude resolution many local aspects of the climate are unable to be represented. In addition, the topographical input is equally crude, thus excluding important local features of the topographic forcing. For these reasons downscaling methods have been developed, which input the GCM results producing high resolution localized climate information. Dynamical downscaling is achieved using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that increase the resolution of the GCMs to even less than 10 km. In that direction, future changes in the mean precipitation as well as precipitation extremes due to the anthropogenic climate change over the area of Greece are examined for various emission scenarios in the framework of this paper (e.g. RCP 8.5, SRES A1B, etc.). Regarding Greece, future changes are based on daily precipitation data from 18 Region Climate Models simulations (6 for RCP 8.5 and 12 for SRES A1B). The changes in precipitation extremes are defined by calculating the changes of nine extreme precipitation indices which are divided in three categories: percentile (R75p, R95p, R99p), absolute threshold (Rmax, R10, R20, R50, RX5day) and duration (CDD) indices, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Taking into account all the results that are discussed explicitly in the following sections we conclude that the mean precipitation as well as

  9. The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

    2013-12-01

    The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

  10. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, Daniel; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Huntingford, Chris; Masato, Giacomo; Guillod, Benoit P.; Frumhoff, Peter; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

    2016-07-01

    It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ∼70% and by ∼20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ∼315 and ∼735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

  11. Temporal Changes in Extreme High Temerature, Heat Waves in Istanbul Between 1960-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yürük, C.; Ünal, Y. S.; Bilgen, S. I.; Menteş, Ş. S.; İncecik, S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has crucial effects on cities and especially for informal settlements, urban poor and other vulnerable groups by influencing human health, assets and livelihoods. These impacts directly result from the variations in temperature and precipitation, and emergence of heat waves, droughts, floods and fires (IPCC, 2014). Summertime episodes with extremely high air temperatures which last for several days or longer are addressed to as heat waves and affect the weather and climate in the globe. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of heat waves in terms of quantity, duration and frequency and also to evaluate the accuracy of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model in reproducing the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. The summer maximum temperatures of six Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations are selected between 1960 and 2014 to estimate the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. We define the heat wave if the maximum temperatures exceed a threshold value for at least three consecutive days. The threshold value is determined as 30.5 from the 90th percentile of all six station's observations. Then it is used in the detection of the hot days, heat waves and their durations. The results show that not only the number of heat waves but also duration of heat waves increase towards the end of the study period. Especially, a significant increase in heat wave events is evident after 1990s. In 2012, the number of hot days reaches the maximum value in all stations and Kartal station located southern part of city, has the highest value of 60 hot days. Furthermore, Kartal as an urban area in the Asian side of the city, exhibits highest heat wave duration with 18 consecutive days in 1998. To estimate the relationship between urban heat island intensity and the heat waves, we examined data at 43 stations collected by Disaster Coordination Center and TSMS between 2007 and 2012. Urban heat island phenomenon is found to be related to higher

  12. Variability of Winter Extreme Heat Flux Events in Kuroshio Extension and Gulf Stream Extension Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, X.; Chang, P.; Wu, D.; Lin, X.

    2012-12-01

    We analyzed extreme surface heat flux events, defined by daily sensible (latent) heat flux greater than 80 percentile value (hereafter referred to as high-flux events) associated with boreal winter (NDJFM) cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) in the Kuroshio Extension Region (KER) of the Northwestern Pacific, using the high-resolution NCEP-CFSR (1979-2009) and NCEP-NCAR (1948-2009) reanalysis, and compared the results to those in the Gulf Stream Region (GSR) of the Northwestern Atlantic. The average accumulated number of days of the Pacific high-flux events, which typically last fewer than 3 days, is only less than 20% of the winter period but contributes significantly (>30%) to the total sensible and latent heat fluxes during the entire winter season in the KER. These high flux events are characterized by "cold storms" with a positive geopotential height anomaly (anti-cyclone) over Japan and a negative geopotential height anomaly (cyclone) further downstream, in between which there is an anomalous northerly wind that brings cold and dry air from the Eurasian continent to the KER. In contrast, non-event days are characterized by "warm storms" that have a cyclone (an anti-cyclone) to the west (east) of the KER, bringing warm and moist air from the subtropics to the KER. There are important differences between the Pacific and Atlantic CAOs. Generally, the Atlantic CAOs occur more frequently with stronger intensity and shorter duration than those in the Pacific. The "cold storms" in the KER also differ from those in the GSR in terms of their detailed structure and orientation relative to geographic location. However, in both the Pacific and Atlantic, interannual and longer term variations of sensible and latent heat flux are determined by the high flux events, suggesting that extreme winter storm events play an important role in the mid-latitude climate system. In the Pacific basin, decadal variability dominates the low-frequency variability of total and event-day sensible and

  13. Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

    PubMed Central

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A.; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C.; Parker, Edith A.

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:24531122

  14. Avian thermoregulation in the heat: efficient evaporative cooling allows for extreme heat tolerance in four southern hemisphere columbids.

    PubMed

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Whitfield, Maxine C; Smit, Ben; Gerson, Alexander R; Smith, Eric Krabbe; Talbot, William A; McWhorter, Todd J; Wolf, Blair O

    2016-07-15

    Birds show phylogenetic variation in the relative importance of respiratory versus cutaneous evaporation, but the consequences for heat tolerance and evaporative cooling capacity remain unclear. We measured evaporative water loss (EWL), resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body temperature (Tb) in four arid-zone columbids from southern Africa [Namaqua dove (Oena capensis, ∼37 g), laughing dove (Spilopelia senegalensis, ∼89 g) and Cape turtle dove (Streptopelia capicola, ∼148 g)] and Australia [crested pigeon (Ocyphaps lophotes), ∼186 g] at air temperatures (Ta) of up to 62°C. There was no clear relationship between body mass and maximum Ta tolerated during acute heat exposure. Maximum Tb at very high Ta was 43.1±1.0, 43.7±0.8, 44.7±0.3 and 44.3±0.8°C in Namaqua doves, laughing doves, Cape turtle doves and crested pigeons, respectively. In all four species, RMR increased significantly at Ta above thermoneutrality, but the increases were relatively modest with RMR at Ta=56°C being 32, 60, 99 and 11% higher, respectively, than at Ta=35°C. At the highest Ta values reached, evaporative heat loss was equivalent to 466, 227, 230 and 275% of metabolic heat production. The maximum ratio of evaporative heat loss to metabolic production observed in Namaqua doves, 4.66, exceeds by a substantial margin previous values reported for birds. Our results support the notion that cutaneous evaporation provides a highly efficient mechanism of heat dissipation and an enhanced ability to tolerate extremely high Ta. PMID:27207640

  15. Elevated CO2 enhances leaf senescence during extreme heat and drought in a temperate forest

    SciTech Connect

    Warren, Jeffrey; Norby, Richard J; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2011-01-01

    In 2007, an extreme drought and acute heat wave damaged ecosystems across the southeastern US, including a 19-year-old Liquidambar styraciflua L. (sweetgum) tree plantation exposed to long-term elevated CO2 treatments. Stem sap velocities in trees exposed to ambient (A) or elevated (E) CO2 were analyzed to assess potential interactions between CO2 and these weather extremes. Leaf temperature (Tleaf) and net carbon uptake (GPP) were modeled based on patterns of sap velocity to estimate indirect impacts of CO2-reduced transpiration on premature leaf senescence. Elevated CO2 reduced sap flow by 28% during early summer, and by up to 45% late in the drought during record-setting high air temperatures. Canopy transpiration and conductance declined more rapidly in ECO2 plots, resulting in ECO2 Tleaf up to 45 C, which was 1-2 C greater than ACO2 Tleaf. Pre-drought GPP was ~7% greater in ECO2 plots, then declined to 30% less than ACO2 GPP as the drought progressed. Leaf abscission peaked during this period, and was 30% greater for ECO2 trees. While ECO2 can reduce leaf-level water use under droughty conditions, acute drought or heat conditions may induce excessive stomatal closure that could offset benefits of ECO2 to temperate forest species during extreme weather events.

  16. Investigation of Loop Heat Pipe Survival and Restart After Extreme Cold Environment Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golliher, Eric; Ku, Jentung; Licari, Anthony; Sanzi, James

    2010-01-01

    NASA plans human exploration near the South Pole of the Moon, and other locations where the environment is extremely cold. This paper reports on the heat transfer performance of a loop heat pipe (LHP) exposed to extreme cold under the simulated reduced gravitational environment of the Moon. A common method of spacecraft thermal control is to use a LHP with ammonia working fluid. Typically, a small amount of heat is provided either by electrical heaters or by environmental design, such that the LHP condenser temperature never drops below the freezing point of ammonia. The concern is that a liquid-filled, frozen condenser would not restart, or that a thawing condenser would damage the tubing due to the expansion of ammonia upon thawing. This paper reports the results of an experimental investigation of a novel approach to avoid these problems. The LHP compensation chamber (CC) is conditioned such that all the ammonia liquid is removed from the condenser and the LHP is nonoperating. The condenser temperature is then reduced to below that of the ammonia freezing point. The LHP is then successfully restarted.

  17. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12

    SciTech Connect

    Trent, J.D.; Osipiuk, J.; Pinkau, T. )

    1990-03-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70{degrees}C culture at the lethal temperature of 92{degrees}C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88{degrees}C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known as heat shock proteins. In this Sulfolobus species, it correlates with the preferential synthesis of primarily one major protein (55 kilodaltons) and, to a much lesser extent, two minor proteins (28 and 35 kilodaltons). Since the synthesis of all other proteins was radically reduced and these proteins were apparently not degraded or exported, their relative abundance within the cell increased during the time the cells were becoming thermotolerant. They could not yet be related to known heat shock proteins. In immunoassays, they were not cross-reactive with antibodies against heat shock proteins from Escherichia coli (DnaK and GroE), which are highly conserved between eubacteria and eucaryotes. However, it appears that if acquired thermotolerance depends on the synthesis of protective proteins, then in this extremely thermophilic archaebacterium it depends primarily on one protein.

  18. Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Bruce T.

    2015-12-11

    through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.

  19. Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology for Near-Term Robotic Science Missions and Longer Term Human Missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkatapathy, E.; Ellerby, D.

    2014-06-01

    Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment is currently funded for technology development for mission infusion into Discovery-13 and New Frontier-4 completed missions. We will describe the technology and the approach to TRL 6 to meet infusion challenges.

  20. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

  1. Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events, their Changes and Future Projections in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, S. K.

    2014-12-01

    India has unique geographical location and the country spreads over a large area. The southwest and northeast monsoons are the most important quasi permanent systems which dominate the weathers in this part of the world. The summer monsoon rainfall during the months June to September has a large temporal as well as spatial variability. The surface air temperature has also a large temporal and spatial variability. For suitable scientific analysis, the whole country can be divided into several homogeneous rainfall and temperature zones. Some of the extreme weather events occurring in the country include land slides, cold wave conditions, flash floods, cyclones, heat wave conditions, floods, droughts and heavy precipitation. In the context of climate change, in addition to these extreme cases, it is important to examine all the weather events above their respective threshold levels in terms of frequencies of occurrences. Results of this study show that the atmospheric surface temperature has enhanced in all the homogeneous regions of India with a maximum value of about 10C during winter and post-monsoon months. There is a significant seasonal asymmetry in the temperature rise. Also extreme temperature events of different types have enhanced over all the regions. It is found that the total precipitation during the summer monsoon months of June to September does not show any statistically significant trend. However, the numbers of short spell high intensity rain events and dry spells have increased in the last half century. Long spell rain events, on the other hand, show decreasing trend. The decrease in the number of long spell rain events associated with similar tendencies in the number of monsoon depressions, the mean monsoon wind and its shears over India suggests that the Indian summer monsoon circulation might be weakening. This talk will also attempt to describe the changes in temperature and rainfall extremes and their projections at some selected locations in

  2. Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

    PubMed

    Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

    2010-05-28

    The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope. PMID:20403836

  3. Flood risk under future climate in West Africa: linking extreme value models and flood generating processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramblay, Yves; Amoussou, Ernest; Dorigo, Wouter; Mahé, Gil

    2014-05-01

    For many areas in the world, there is a need for future projections of flood risk in order to improve the possible mitigation actions. However, such an exercise is often made difficult in data-sparse regions, where the limited access to hydrometric data does not allow calibrating hydrological models in a robust way under non-stationary conditions. In this study we present an approach to estimate the possible changes in flood risks, which incorporates flood generating processes into statistical models for extreme values. This approach is illustrated for a West African catchment, the Mono River (12900km²), with discharge, precipitation and temperature data are available between 1988 and 2010 in a few stations and where the dominant flood generating process is soil saturation. A soil moisture accounting model, calibrated against a merged surface soil moisture microwave satellite dataset, is used to estimate the annual maximum soil saturation level that is then related to the location parameter of a Generalized Extreme Value model of annual maximum discharge. With such a model, it is possible to estimate the changes in flood quantiles from the changes in the annual maximum soil saturation level. An ensemble of regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES-AMMA project are then considered to estimate the potential future changes in soil saturation and subsequently the changes in flood risks for the period 2028-2050. A sensitivity analysis of the non-stationary flood quantiles has shown that with the projected changes on precipitation (-2%) and temperature (+1.22°) under the scenario A1B, the projected flood quantiles would stay in the range of the observed variability during 1988-2010. The proposed approach, relying on low data requirements and few assumptions, could be useful to estimate the projected changes in flood risks for other data-sparse catchments.

  4. Survival of the fittest: overcoming oxidative stress at the extremes of Acid, heat and metal.

    PubMed

    Maezato, Yukari; Blum, Paul

    2012-01-01

    The habitat of metal respiring acidothermophilic lithoautotrophs is perhaps the most oxidizing environment yet identified. Geothermal heat, sulfuric acid and transition metals contribute both individually and synergistically under aerobic conditions to create this niche. Sulfuric acid and metals originating from sulfidic ores catalyze oxidative reactions attacking microbial cell surfaces including lipids, proteins and glycosyl groups. Sulfuric acid also promotes hydrocarbon dehydration contributing to the formation of black "burnt" carbon. Oxidative reactions leading to abstraction of electrons is further impacted by heat through an increase in the proportion of reactant molecules with sufficient energy to react. Collectively these factors and particularly those related to metals must be overcome by thermoacidophilic lithoautotrophs in order for them to survive and proliferate. The necessary mechanisms to achieve this goal are largely unknown however mechanistics insights have been gained through genomic studies. This review focuses on the specific role of metals in this extreme environment with an emphasis on resistance mechanisms in Archaea. PMID:25371104

  5. Survival of the Fittest: Overcoming Oxidative Stress at the Extremes of Acid, Heat and Metal

    PubMed Central

    Maezato, Yukari; Blum, Paul

    2012-01-01

    The habitat of metal respiring acidothermophilic lithoautotrophs is perhaps the most oxidizing environment yet identified. Geothermal heat, sulfuric acid and transition metals contribute both individually and synergistically under aerobic conditions to create this niche. Sulfuric acid and metals originating from sulfidic ores catalyze oxidative reactions attacking microbial cell surfaces including lipids, proteins and glycosyl groups. Sulfuric acid also promotes hydrocarbon dehydration contributing to the formation of black “burnt” carbon. Oxidative reactions leading to abstraction of electrons is further impacted by heat through an increase in the proportion of reactant molecules with sufficient energy to react. Collectively these factors and particularly those related to metals must be overcome by thermoacidophilic lithoautotrophs in order for them to survive and proliferate. The necessary mechanisms to achieve this goal are largely unknown however mechanistics insights have been gained through genomic studies. This review focuses on the specific role of metals in this extreme environment with an emphasis on resistance mechanisms in Archaea. PMID:25371104

  6. Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldi, Marina

    2014-05-01

    In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

  7. Energy transport in short-pulse-laser-heated targets measured using extreme ultraviolet laser backlighting.

    PubMed

    Wilson, L A; Tallents, G J; Pasley, J; Whittaker, D S; Rose, S J; Guilbaud, O; Cassou, K; Kazamias, S; Daboussi, S; Pittman, M; Delmas, O; Demailly, J; Neveu, O; Ros, D

    2012-08-01

    The accurate characterization of thermal electron transport and the determination of heating by suprathermal electrons in laser driven solid targets are both issues of great importance to the current experiments being performed at the National Ignition Facility, which aims to achieve thermonuclear fusion ignition using lasers. Ionization, induced by electronic heat conduction, can cause the opacity of a material to drop significantly once bound-free photoionization is no longer energetically possible. We show that this drop in opacity enables measurements of the transmission of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) laser pulses at 13.9 nm to act as a signature of the heating of thin (50 nm) iron layers with a 50-nm thick parylene-N (CH) overlay irradiated by 35-fs pulses at irradiance 3×10(16) Wcm(-2). Comparing EUV transmission measurements at different times after irradiation to fluid code simulations shows that the target is instantaneously heated by hot electrons (with approximately 10% of the laser energy), followed by thermal conduction with a flux limiter of ≈0.05. PMID:23005868

  8. Experimental Realization of Extreme Heat Flux Concentration with Easy-to-Make Thermal Metamaterials

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Fei; Yuan Lei, Dang

    2015-01-01

    The ability to harvest thermal energy and manipulate heat fluxes has recently attracted a great deal of research interest because this is critical to achieve efficient solar-to-thermal energy conversion in the technology of concentrated solar thermal collectors. Thermal metamaterials with engineered thermal conduction are often utilized to control the diffusive heat flow in ways otherwise not possible with naturally occurring materials. In this work, we adopt the transformation thermodynamics approach to design an annular fan-shaped thermal metamaterial which is capable of guiding heat fluxes and concentrating thermal energy to the central region of the metamaterial device without disturbing the temperature profile outside the structure – a fascinating and unique feature impossibly achieved with homogeneous materials. In experiment, this rationally-designed metamaterial structure demonstrates extreme heat flux compression from both line-shaped and point thermal sources with measured concentration efficiency up to 83.1%, providing the first experimental realization of our recent theoretical prediction (T. Han et al., Energy Environ. Sci., 2013, 6, 3537-3541). These unprecedented results may open up new possibilities for engineering thermal materials with desired properties that can be used for dramatically enhancing the efficiency of the existing solar thermal collectors. PMID:26109080

  9. Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Peihua; Xie, Zhenghui

    2016-06-01

    To detect the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in China for the middle 21st century, simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model GFDL_ESM2M under the middle emission scenario (RCP4.5). Compared with observed precipitation extremes for the reference period from 1982 to 2001, RegCM4 generally performed better in most river basins of China relative to GFDL. In the future period 2032-2051, more wet extremes will occur relative to the present period in most study areas, especially in southeast China while significantly less dry extremes will occur in arid and semiarid areas in northwest China. In contrast, areas in northwest China showed an increase in the trend of dry extremes (CDD) and a decrease in the trend of wet extremes (R95p and Rx5day), which might result in more drought in the future. Finally, we discuss in detail the possible reason of these processes, such as zonal wind, vertical wind, and water vapor. In the Huaihe river basin (HU), reduced south winds in summer (June-August) and a decrease of the upward vertical p velocity cause less future precipitation and might lead to changes of extreme events. We also completed correlation analysis between the precipitation extreme indices and the climate factors and found that the precipitation extremes were more sensitive to the annual and seasonal mean precipitation, total water vapor, and upward vertical wind relative to the geopotential height and 2 m temperature over most river basins in China. Perhaps the changes of some wet extremes could be verified partly through changes of annual precipitation due to their high consistence.

  10. CAN A NANOFLARE MODEL OF EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET IRRADIANCES DESCRIBE THE HEATING OF THE SOLAR CORONA?

    SciTech Connect

    Tajfirouze, E.; Safari, H.

    2012-01-10

    Nanoflares, the basic units of impulsive energy release, may produce much of the solar background emission. Extrapolation of the energy frequency distribution of observed microflares, which follows a power law to lower energies, can give an estimation of the importance of nanoflares for heating the solar corona. If the power-law index is greater than 2, then the nanoflare contribution is dominant. We model a time series of extreme-ultraviolet emission radiance as random flares with a power-law exponent of the flare event distribution. The model is based on three key parameters: the flare rate, the flare duration, and the power-law exponent of the flare intensity frequency distribution. We use this model to simulate emission line radiance detected in 171 A, observed by Solar Terrestrial Relation Observatory/Extreme-Ultraviolet Imager and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. The observed light curves are matched with simulated light curves using an Artificial Neural Network, and the parameter values are determined across the active region, quiet Sun, and coronal hole. The damping rate of nanoflares is compared with the radiative losses cooling time. The effect of background emission, data cadence, and network sensitivity on the key parameters of the model is studied. Most of the observed light curves have a power-law exponent, {alpha}, greater than the critical value 2. At these sites, nanoflare heating could be significant.

  11. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  12. Differences between Changes in Extreme and Mean Sea Levels and Planning Allowances for Coastal Protection for the Extremes of the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodworth, Philip; Hunter, John; Antony, Charls; Unnikrishnan, Alakkat

    2016-04-01

    Previous studies of changes in extreme sea levels around the world during the past few decades have shown that they largely parallel those in mean sea levels, although with some exceptions at individual stations or in particular regions. In the present study, we have used a much larger data set of high-frequency sea level data from a global set of tide gauges in order to investigate the reasons for the exceptions in greater detail, including the role of the major modes of climate variability. The global data set is called GESLA-2 (Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis Version 2) which contains major improvements over the earlier GESLA-1 version (Menendez and Woodworth, JGR 2010) A special study of extreme sea levels is performed using data from India which, for various reasons, are not included in GESLA-2. In addition, the much larger temporal and spatial coverage of GESLA-2 is used to further update the coastal 'allowances' for future sea level rise presented by Hunter et al. (Ocean Engineering 2013), and updated in the IPCC AR5, in which guidelines are given for raising coastal defences for a given scenario of future sea level rise at stations where the climatology of extreme sea levels is known.

  13. Future directions in two-phase flow and heat transfer in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bankoff, S. George

    1994-01-01

    Some areas of opportunity for future research in microgravity two-phase flow and heat transfer are pointed out. These satisfy the dual requirements of relevance to current and future needs, and scientific/engineering interest.

  14. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar.

    PubMed

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-09-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

  15. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar1

    PubMed Central

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A.; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T.S.; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D.; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

  16. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  17. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fei, Y.; Yeou-Koung, T.; Liliang, R.

    2014-09-01

    In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC) was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  18. Spatial impacts of heat waves in mortality. Evaluating current risks and future threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrade, H.; Canario, P.; Nogueira, H.

    2009-09-01

    Impacts of heat waves in morbidity and mortality are largely known. Climate Change is expected to increase the climate health impacts in summer while the winter will be probably favored. The health impacts of extreme thermal events are mainly studied at a national or regional level, considering macro or mesoscale thermal features. But it can be assumed that local variations in mortality must exist, associated, in one hand, with local climatic differences, due to features such as land use and urbanization and, in other hand, with vulnerability factors (depending on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of populations). A model of hazard - vulnerability - risk was developed, to analyze the spatial variations of mortality in extreme thermal events, at the level of city district, in the Lisbon metropolitan area (Portugal). In that model, risk is considered as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Daily mortality data by sex, age and cause of death was supplied by the Health National Authority. The research is yet on-going. In our model, hazard is represented mainly by temperature and air pollution (the influence of other atmospheric variables that affect the human energy balance, such as solar radiation and wind speed should be tested too). Small scale variation of meteorological features, in extreme thermal events, were simulated with a Regional Atmospheric Model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and the results were validated and calibrated using observation data from an urban network of termo-higrometers placed in sites with different urban characteristics. Vulnerability is a result on personal sensitivity and exposure. Personal sensitivity is assessed considering individual constitutional and demographic factors as well as socio, cultural and economic variables. Daily mobility determines the population exposure to heat. Since many of these variables are redundant, a set of indicators, including a multiple deprivation index, was used. A

  19. California heat waves in the present and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gershunov, Alexander; Guirguis, Kristen

    2012-09-01

    Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub-regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime-accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub-regions of California. Part of the intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non-stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources.

  20. Estimates of future flow, including extremes, of the Columbia River headwaters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bürger, G.; Schulla, J.; Werner, A. T.

    2011-10-01

    Streamflow projections, including extremes, for the 2050s for the Columbia River headwaters above Donald are obtained by downscaling four regional climate models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite and subsequent driving of a hydrologic model. We employ the entire model chain from global and regional climate models, station-based statistical downscaling, and a fully distributed, physically based hydrologic model and verify the results against observed streamflow. The performance is model dependent but is generally encouraging enough to justify the application of the climate scenarios. A general warming of about 2°C is projected and, on average, slightly drier conditions, especially in late summer. We find evidence that the projected changes are elevation dependent and relatively small scale, with decreasing signals with higher elevations. All models project a shift of the hydrograph toward a more rain-fed regime, with peak flows occurring in June instead of July. Annual peak flow is projected to not increase, and August low flow decreases in all four models. With nonshrinking (static) glaciers, relatively high melting rates are simulated for August and September that partly compensate for the shifted hydrograph; this enhanced glacier melt is also detected in simulated historic Columbia headwater flow. The static approximation is supported by a heuristic seasonal sensitivity analysis that suggests a moderate average areal glacier recession of about 10% for the midcentury. We discuss the need for a dynamic glacier component for a refined assessment of future drought risk.

  1. In-vehicle extremity injuries from improvised explosive devices: current and future foci

    PubMed Central

    Ramasamy, Arul; Masouros, Spyros D.; Newell, Nicolas; Hill, Adam M.; Proud, William G.; Brown, Katherine A.; Bull, Anthony M. J.; Clasper, Jon C.

    2011-01-01

    The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have been epitomized by the insurgents' use of the improvised explosive device against vehicle-borne security forces. These weapons, capable of causing multiple severely injured casualties in a single incident, pose the most prevalent single threat to Coalition troops operating in the region. Improvements in personal protection and medical care have resulted in increasing numbers of casualties surviving with complex lower limb injuries, often leading to long-term disability. Thus, there exists an urgent requirement to investigate and mitigate against the mechanism of extremity injury caused by these devices. This will necessitate an ontological approach, linking molecular, cellular and tissue interaction to physiological dysfunction. This can only be achieved via a collaborative approach between clinicians, natural scientists and engineers, combining physical and numerical modelling tools with clinical data from the battlefield. In this article, we compile existing knowledge on the effects of explosions on skeletal injury, review and critique relevant experimental and computational research related to lower limb injury and damage and propose research foci required to drive the development of future mitigation technologies. PMID:21149353

  2. In-vehicle extremity injuries from improvised explosive devices: current and future foci.

    PubMed

    Ramasamy, Arul; Masouros, Spyros D; Newell, Nicolas; Hill, Adam M; Proud, William G; Brown, Katherine A; Bull, Anthony M J; Clasper, Jon C

    2011-01-27

    The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have been epitomized by the insurgents' use of the improvised explosive device against vehicle-borne security forces. These weapons, capable of causing multiple severely injured casualties in a single incident, pose the most prevalent single threat to Coalition troops operating in the region. Improvements in personal protection and medical care have resulted in increasing numbers of casualties surviving with complex lower limb injuries, often leading to long-term disability. Thus, there exists an urgent requirement to investigate and mitigate against the mechanism of extremity injury caused by these devices. This will necessitate an ontological approach, linking molecular, cellular and tissue interaction to physiological dysfunction. This can only be achieved via a collaborative approach between clinicians, natural scientists and engineers, combining physical and numerical modelling tools with clinical data from the battlefield. In this article, we compile existing knowledge on the effects of explosions on skeletal injury, review and critique relevant experimental and computational research related to lower limb injury and damage and propose research foci required to drive the development of future mitigation technologies. PMID:21149353

  3. The heat goes on—changes in indices of hot extremes in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graczyk, Dariusz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Hov, Øystein; Førland, Eirik J.; Szwed, Małgorzata; Choryński, Adam

    2016-04-01

    On the basis of temperature observations at 60 meteorological stations in Poland, changes in the indices associated with the presence of extremely high air temperatures were examined. Indices associated with heat waves, such as the number of hot days (T max ≥30 °C) in the summer months (June, July, August) and beyond the summer months (May, September), the number of extremely hot days (T max ≥35 °C), the duration of the longest hot spell in the year, as well as the number of tropical nights (T min ≤20 °C) were calculated. Spatial distribution of change rate in days per decade for the studied indices as well as the significance level of the observed trends is illustrated. Also current values of the studied indices (for 1991-2013) are examined and compared with the reference period, 1961-1990. For eight of 11 analysed indexes, increase has been detected in last decades with the help of the Mann-Kendall test at a significance level ≥0.05 or better, for a large group of stations. Statistically significant increases of the number of hot days in summer, the number of tropical nights in a year, and duration of the longest hot spell in summer were found for more than half of the stations. Distinct changes in the duration of heat waves were also noted. In 1961-1990, the longest hot spell lasted for 10 days while in 1991-2013, there were many hot spells longer than that, while the longest hot spell recorded in this period lasted for 17 days. Beyond summer, changes in the number of hot days were smaller. In May, a statistically significant increase was recorded for only three stations, while in September the downward trend was dominating and for eight stations it was statistically significant.

  4. Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Summer Heat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2013-01-01

    Rhines and Huybers are correct that the decreasing number of measurement stations in recent years contributed slightly to our calculated increase of extreme summer mean temperature anomalies. However, the increased frequency of extreme heat anomalies is accounted for mainly by (i) higher mean temperature of recent decades relative to the base period 1951-1980, and (ii) the continuing upward temperature trend during recent decades. The effect of decreasing stations is shown by comparing our prior analysis with results using only stations with data records in both the base period and recent years (Fig. 1). The distribution is noisier, and the area with temperature anomaly exceeding three SDs during 2001-2011 decreases from 9.6 to 9.3% for the reduced number of stations (1,886 rather than 6,147), but our conclusions are not changed qualitatively. The temperature anomaly distribution shifts to the right and broadens because it is defined relative to a fixed (1951-1980) base period, during which global temperatures were within the Holocene range. We argue on the basis of accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica and rapidly rising sea level (now exceeding 3 mm/y or 3 m per millennium) that temperatures in the early 21st century are already above the Holocene range, and thus use of a base period preceding the rapid warming of the past three decades has merit.

  5. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ronchail, J.; Espinoza, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Sultan, B.; Polcher, J.; Drapeau, G.; Guyot, J.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.

    2013-05-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn on the Amazon River basin whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated to precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multi model approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on 3 emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station) but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasted discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease in several stations, especially in the Xingu River where it reaches -50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the North, the low-flow decrease becomes higher towards the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River) that have low runoff coefficients will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase in

  6. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ronchail, J.; Espinoza, J. C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sultan, B.; Polcher, J.; Drapeau, G.; Guyot, J.-L.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.

    2013-03-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches -50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase

  7. Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkoski, Jaroslaw

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate methods of trend detection in hydro-climatic high and low indices using novel and conventional tools, for future climate projections in the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The climate meteorological projections are obtained from regional climate models or/and global circulation models forced with IPCC SRES A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The study area includes ten catchments in Poland. The catchments have diverse hydro-climatic conditions. They are covered mostly by forest and are semi-natural. The flood regime of all the catchments is driven either by rainfall and/or snow-melt. Streamflow projections are provided by running the HBV hydrological model, coupled with climate models for the catchments. The trends are analyzed using a conventional Modified Mann Kendall statistical approach, a time frequency approach based on wavelet discrete transform (DWT) and the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) method. We address the problems of auto-correlation, seasonality and inter-annual variability of the derived indices. A Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) method is applied to cope with the autocorrelation of the time series. The DHR method is based on the unobserved component approach. Together with estimates of the components, the uncertainty of the estimates is also calculated. The results of the DHR analysis (trend) are compared with the calculated MMK and DWT trends. Among other indices we study the temporal patterns of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as well as Maximum Annual Flows and Minimum Annual Flows. The results indicate that changes in the trends of the projected indices are more conservative when DHR methods are applied than conventional trend techniques. The wavelet-based approach is the most subjective and gives the least conservative trend estimates. Trends indicate an increase in the amount of precipitation, followed by

  8. Solar assisted heat pumps: A possible wave of the future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smetana, F. O.

    1976-01-01

    With the higher costs of electric power and the widespread interest to use solar energy to reduce the national dependence on fossil fuels, heat pumps are examined to determine their suitability for use with solar energy systems.

  9. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  10. Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas.

    PubMed

    Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

  11. Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

    PubMed Central

    Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

  12. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating: the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-Model Version 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2015-11-01

    Increased use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change require an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing and testing the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-model, a 1-D (one-dimensional) non-equilibrium (liquid-vapor phase change) model of soil evaporation that simulates the coupled simultaneous transport of heat, soil moisture, and water vapor. This model is intended for use with surface forcing ranging from daily solar cycles to extreme conditions encountered during fires. It employs a linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme for the conservation equations of energy and mass and its performance is evaluated against dynamic soil temperature and moisture observations, which were obtained during laboratory experiments on soil samples exposed to surface heat fluxes ranging between 10 000 and 50 000 W m-2. The Hertz-Knudsen equation is the basis for constructing the model's non-equilibrium evaporative source term. Some unusual aspects of the model that were found to be extremely important to the model's performance include (1) a dynamic (temperature and moisture potential dependent) condensation coefficient associated with the evaporative source term, (2) an infrared radiation component to the soil's thermal conductivity, and (3) a dynamic residual soil moisture. This last term, which is parameterized as a function of temperature and soil water potential, is incorporated into the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity functions in order to improve the model's ability to capture the evaporative dynamics of the strongly bound soil moisture, which requires temperatures well beyond 150 °C to fully evaporate. The model also includes film flow, although this phenomenon did not contribute much to the model's overall performance. In general, the model simulates the laboratory-observed temperature dynamics quite well, but is less precise (but

  13. Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

    PubMed Central

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

  14. The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

  15. Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Roger D.; Bobb, Jennifer F.; Tebaldi, Claudia; McDaniel, Larry; Bell, Michelle L.; Dominici, Francesca

    2011-01-01

    Background Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality, and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively. Objectives We estimated the future excess mortality attributable to heat waves under global climate change for a major U.S. city. Methods We used a database comprising daily data from 1987 through 2005 on mortality from all nonaccidental causes, ambient levels of particulate matter and ozone, temperature, and dew point temperature for the city of Chicago, Illinois. We estimated the associations between heat waves and mortality in Chicago using Poisson regression models. Results Under three different climate change scenarios for 2081–2100 and in the absence of adaptation, the city of Chicago could experience between 166 and 2,217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves, based on estimates from seven global climate models. We noted considerable variability in the projections of annual heat wave mortality; the largest source of variation was the choice of climate model. Conclusions The impact of future heat waves on human health will likely be profound, and significant gains can be expected by lowering future carbon dioxide emissions. PMID:21193384

  16. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  17. Back to the Future -Precipitation Extremes, Climate Variability, Environmental Planning and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barros, A. P.

    2008-12-01

    --"The last major climatic oscillation peak was about 1856, or 74 years ago. Practically all of our important railroad and public highway work has been done since that time. Most of our parks systems driveways, and roads of all type for auto travel, in the various States, have been completed within the past 30 years, namely, beginning at the very lowest point of our climatic swing (1900-1910). There is every reason to believe, therefore, as the next 20 years comes on apace, we will witness considerable damage to work done during the past regime of weather."-- Schuman, 1931 At the beginning of the 21st century, as at the beginning of the 20th century, the fundamental question is whether the nation is more prepared for natural disasters today than it was eight decades ago. Indeed, the question is whether the best science, engineering and policy tools are in place to prepare for and respond to extreme events. Changes in the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events rank among the most studied impacts, and indicators (symptoms) of climatic variations. Extreme precipitation translates generally into extreme flooding, landslides, collapse of lifeline infrastructure, and the breakdown of public health services among others. In approaching the problem of quantifying the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, there are two major challenges: 1) it is difficult to characterize "observed" (20th century) conditions due to the lack of long-term observations - i.e., short and incomplete historical records; and 2) it is difficult to characterize "predicted" (21st century) conditions due to the lack of skill of precipitation forecasts at spatial and temporal scales meaningful for impact studies, and the short-duration of climate model simulations themselves. The first challenge translates in estimating the probability of occurrence (rare) and magnitude (very large) of events that may have not happened yet. The second challenge is that of quantifying

  18. Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared. PMID:27081886

  19. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  20. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2013-01-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

  1. Extremely Low Loss Phonon-Trapping Cryogenic Acoustic Cavities for Future Physical Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Galliou, Serge; Goryachev, Maxim; Bourquin, Roger; Abbé, Philippe; Aubry, Jean Pierre; Tobar, Michael E.

    2013-01-01

    Low loss Bulk Acoustic Wave devices are considered from the point of view of the solid state approach as phonon-confining cavities. We demonstrate effective design of such acoustic cavities with phonon-trapping techniques exhibiting extremely high quality factors for trapped longitudinally-polarized phonons of various wavelengths. Quality factors of observed modes exceed 1 billion, with a maximum Q-factor of 8 billion and Q × f product of 1.6 · 1018 at liquid helium temperatures. Such high sensitivities allow analysis of intrinsic material losses in resonant phonon systems. Various mechanisms of phonon losses are discussed and estimated. PMID:23823569

  2. How extreme are extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  3. Heat supply from municipal solid waste incineration plants in Japan: Current situation and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Tabata, Tomohiro; Tsai, Peii

    2016-02-01

    The use of waste-to-energy technology as part of a municipal solid waste management strategy could reduce the use of fossil fuels and contribute to prevention of global warming. In this study, we examined current heat and electricity production by incineration plants in Japan for external use. Herein, we discuss specific challenges to the promotion of heat utilisation and future municipal solid waste management strategies. We conducted a questionnaire survey to determine the actual conditions of heat production by incineration plants. From the survey results, information of about 498 incineration plants was extracted. When we investigated the relationship between heat production for external use and population density where incineration plants were located, we found that regions with a population density <1000 persons (km(2))(-1) produce <500 MJ t(-1) of heat. We also found that external use of such energy for factories, markets, and related use, was noted in cities with a population density of 2000 to 4000 persons (km(2))(-1). Several incineration plants have poor performance for heat production because there are few facilities near them to provide demand for the energy. This is the result of redundant capacity, and is reflected in the heat production performance. Given these results, we discussed future challenges to creating energy demand around incineration plants where there is presently none. We also examined the challenges involved in increasing heat supply beyond the present situation. PMID:26628053

  4. Charging studies of heat packs using parabolic dish solar energy concentrator for extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Rohitash; Vyas, Sumita; Kumar, Ravindra; Dixit, Ambesh

    2016-05-01

    Parabolic dish solar energy concentrator with aperture diameter 1.4 m and focal length 0.32 m is designed and fabricated to charge and store solar thermal energy in phase change material (PCM) based heat packs. Overall heat loss factor, heat duty, over all thermal efficiency, and optical efficiency factor are calculated using water sensible heating and cooling tests and values are 16.11 W m-2 K-1, 546.9 W, 49.2% and 0.62 respectively. The performance characteristic curve is generated using these parameters to understand its performance at different ambient temperatures and solar insolation. The fabricated concentrator has been used to charge 16 PCM heat packs with 150 g PCM in each heat pack, which took about 35 minutes for complete charging of PCM heat packs at average ambient temperature 39 °C and solar radiation flux density 715 W m-2 K-1. The charged heat packs are subjected to discharge studies at average ambient temperature about - 7 °C and observed heat release in the temperature range of 48 to 40 °C for 50 minutes, suggesting its applications for comfort and therapeutic applications in high altitude areas.

  5. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  6. Possible Impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yew Gan, Thian; Gizaw, Mesgana

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Oldman (ORB), Bow, (BRB) and Red Deer (RRB) River Basins of southern Alberta, Canada, was assessed using six extreme climate indices for the rainy period of May-August (MJJA), and 9-km resolution Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B climate scenarios of four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model, MM5. R95p of the three study sites showed an increase of 4% for the 2050s (2041-2070) and 10% for the 2080s (2071-2100) period, whereas R99p increased by 39% (2050s) and 42% (2080s) which suggest a projected increase in the volume of precipitation expected in future very wet and particularly extremely wet days. Similarly, R20mm, P30yr, RX1day and RX5day are also projected to increase by about 15% by the mid- and late 21st century in the three study sites. However, compared to BRB and RRB, ORB located in the southernmost part of the study site is projected to undergo a relatively higher increase in both temperature and precipitation intensity, which is assessed in terms of indices such as P30yr, RX1day and RX5day. On the other hand, RRB and BRB are projected to experience higher increase in R20mm, which suggest a relatively higher increase in the number of very heavy precipitation days projected for these two basins. Overall, these results suggest that in the 2050s and 2080s, southern Alberta will be expected to experience more frequent and severe intensive storm events in the MJJA season that could potentially increase the risk of future flooding in this region. Ref: Gizaw, M., and Gan, T. Y., 2015, Possible Impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta, Int. Journal Climatology, DOI:10.1002/joc.4338

  7. Performance and heat transfer characteristics of the laser-heated rocket - A future space transportation system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shoji, J. M.; Larson, V. R.

    1976-01-01

    The application of advanced liquid-bipropellant rocket engine analysis techniques has been utilized for prediction of the potential delivered performance and the design of thruster wall cooling schemes for laser-heated rocket thrusters. Delivered specific impulse values greater than 1000 lbf-sec/lbm are potentially achievable based on calculations for thrusters designed for 10-kW and 5000-kW laser beam power levels. A thruster wall-cooling technique utilizing a combination of regenerative cooling and a carbon-seeded hydrogen boundary layer is presented. The flowing carbon-seeded hydrogen boundary layer provides radiation absorption of the heat radiated from the high-temperature plasma. Also described is a forced convection thruster wall cooling design for an experimental test thruster.

  8. Assessing Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Conditions over Greece: An Investigation of their Links with Circulation Types.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolika, K.; Anangostopoulou, C.; Tegoulias, I.; Vafiadis, M.

    2010-09-01

    The relationship between the extreme precipitation events and the prevailing circulation types during their occurrence is analyzed in the present study, for four of the biggest cities in Greece (Athens, Thessaloniki, Patra and Heraklio). Daily precipitation data covering the time period 1958-2000 are utilized and the extreme rainfall events are defined using the 95% percentile index. A new automatic classification was applied for the computation of the daily calendar of the circulation types. The main improvements of this classification are the number of the circulation types, which are reduced now to twelve (12) and the fact that the scheme is flexible all over the Mediterranean. The 500hPa geopotential data (2.5 o x 2.5o spatial resolution) from the NCEP/NCAR were employed, covering a large spatial window over the whole European region, for the development of the daily circulation type’s calendar. From the first results of the study it was found that two cyclonic types were the prevailing ones during extreme rainfall conditions. Further more grid point daily precipitation data (the ones closer to the four stations) derived from the most updated regional climate models were also applied in the study for a reference period 1961-1990. The simulated extreme precipitation events were evaluated in comparison to the observational data and a new circulation type calendar was computed this time using the RCMs 500hPa data. Overall, changes both in the magnitude and in the frequency of occurrence of the extreme events were detected. The final goal of the study was to asses the future changes of rainfall extremes as well as the changes of their links with the circulation types as a consequence of the enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations until the end of the 21st century. The aforementioned methodology was applied using the RCM output, both daily precipitation and geopotentials at 500hPa level, (forced by the emission scenario A1B), for the last thirty years of the

  9. High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

    2016-04-01

    Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions < 6 km. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March 2003. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

  10. The future of ELTs (extremely large telescopes): a very personal view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mountain, C. Matt

    2004-07-01

    "The Future of ELTs" is an intriguing as well as daunting title. But this is not about telescopes. After all, what could top visions of telescopes ranging from a "mere" 20 meters, to 100 meters, to plastic 30-meter telescopes in space, to new telescopes for the Moon and even a "hyper-telescope" designed to fill the volcanic crater on La Palma? Instead, this is about an equally interesting subject: Advanced Telescope Builders of the Early 21st Century, which reflects on the gathering of unique individuals that Arne Ardeberg and the University of Lund have so graciously brought together at this workshop.

  11. Impacts of The Future Changes in Extreme Events on Migration in The Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  12. Extremely low-frequency magnetic fields can impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat.

    PubMed

    Tenorio, Bruno Mendes; Ferreira Filho, Moisés Bonifacio Alves; Jimenez, George Chaves; de Morais, Rosana Nogueira; Peixoto, Christina Alves; Nogueira, Romildo de Albuquerque; da Silva Junior, Valdemiro Amaro

    2014-06-01

    Male infertility is often related to reproductive age couples experiencing fertility-related issues. Men may have fertility problems associated with reversible testicular damage. Considering that men have been increasingly exposed to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields generated by the production, distribution and use of electricity, this study analyzed whether 60 Hz and 1 mT magnetic field exposure may impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat shock using rats as an experimental model. Adult male rats were subjected to a single testicular heat shock (HS, 43 °C for 12 min) and then exposed to the magnetic field for 15, 30 and 60 d after HS. Magnetic field exposure during the spermatogenesis recovery induced changes in testis components volume, cell ultrastructure and histomorphometrical parameters. Control animals had a reestablished and active spermatogenesis at 60 d after heat shock, while animals exposed to magnetic field still showed extensive testicular degeneration. Magnetic field exposure did not change the plasma testosterone. In conclusion, extremely low-frequency magnetic field may be harmful to fertility recovery in males affected by reversible testicular damage. PMID:23781997

  13. Historical Review of Electric Household Appliances using Induction-Heating and Future Challenging Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirota, Izuo; Yamashita, Hidekazu; Omori, Hideki; Nakaoka, Mutsuo

    This paper presents historical progress on technology evolution of the electric and electronic household appliances using the inverter, especially for Induction-Heating applications, which have been put in practical use as the desk-top cooker for the first time at home in 1974 until being applied to the rice cooker and the multi-burner cooking heater. It also describes the future innovative evolution of the power semiconductor switching devices and the inverter circuit topologies supporting its progressive developments. Looking back its progress, the future trends on consumer power electronics is discussed on the practical problem in the future.

  14. Measurements of electron and proton heating temperatures from extreme-ultraviolet light images at 68 eV in petawatt laser experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Gu Peimin; Zhang, B.; Key, M. H.; Hatchett, S. P.; Barbee, T.; Freeman, R. R.; Akli, K.; Hey, D.; King, J. A.; Mackinnon, A. J.; Snavely, R. A.; Stephens, R. B.

    2006-11-15

    A 68 eV extreme-ultraviolet light imaging diagnostic measures short pulse isochoric heating by electrons and protons in petawatt laser experiments. Temperatures are deduced from the absolute intensities and comparison with modeling using a radiation hydrodynamics code.

  15. Excessive occupational heat exposure: a significant ergonomic challenge and health risk for current and future workers

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Occupational heat exposure threatens the health of a worker not only when heat illness occurs but also when a worker’s performance and work capacity is impaired. Occupational contexts that involve hot and humid climatic conditions, heavy physical workloads and/or protective clothing create a strenuous and potentially dangerous thermal load for a worker. There are recognized heat prevention strategies and international thermal ergonomic standards to protect the worker. However, such standards have been developed largely in temperate western settings, and their validity and relevance is questionable for some geographical, cultural and socioeconomic contexts where the risk of excessive heat exposure can be high. There is evidence from low- and middle-income tropical countries that excessive heat exposure remains a significant issue for occupational health. Workers in these countries are likely to be at high risk of excessive heat exposure as they are densely populated, have large informal work sectors and are expected to experience substantial increases in temperature due to global climate change. The aim of this paper is to discuss current and future ergonomic risks associated with working in the heat as well as potential methods for maintaining the health and productivity of workers, particularly those most vulnerable to excessive heat exposure. PMID:25057350

  16. Excessive occupational heat exposure: a significant ergonomic challenge and health risk for current and future workers.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Rebekah A I; Epstein, Yoram; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2014-01-01

    Occupational heat exposure threatens the health of a worker not only when heat illness occurs but also when a worker's performance and work capacity is impaired. Occupational contexts that involve hot and humid climatic conditions, heavy physical workloads and/or protective clothing create a strenuous and potentially dangerous thermal load for a worker. There are recognized heat prevention strategies and international thermal ergonomic standards to protect the worker. However, such standards have been developed largely in temperate western settings, and their validity and relevance is questionable for some geographical, cultural and socioeconomic contexts where the risk of excessive heat exposure can be high. There is evidence from low- and middle-income tropical countries that excessive heat exposure remains a significant issue for occupational health. Workers in these countries are likely to be at high risk of excessive heat exposure as they are densely populated, have large informal work sectors and are expected to experience substantial increases in temperature due to global climate change. The aim of this paper is to discuss current and future ergonomic risks associated with working in the heat as well as potential methods for maintaining the health and productivity of workers, particularly those most vulnerable to excessive heat exposure. PMID:25057350

  17. Analysis of Extreme Heat in Historical and Projected Climate Simulations for Regional Climate Planning Purposes in the U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geil, K.; Zeng, X.; McMahan, B.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) states that global climate models predict more extreme temperatures and more frequent, intense, and longer heat waves on a regional basis as global temperatures rise throughout the 21st century, but a thorough test of whether these models can simulate observed heat metrics and trends over the historical period was not included in the assessment. Understanding the capabilities of climate models over the historical period is crucial to assessing our confidence in their predictive ability at regional scales. Our work fills this research gap by evaluating the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) models as compared to observational data using multiple heat metrics. Our metrics are targeted for the southwest United States, but our regional analysis covers the entire continental U.S. and Alaska using 7 of the regions delineated by the NCA. The heat metrics include heat wave and cold wave frequency, intensity, and duration, overnight low temperatures, onset and length of the hot season, and human heat stress. For the best performing models, we compute the same heat metrics for the RCP scenarios. In addition to presenting the results of our CMIP5 historical and RCP analyses, we also describe how our results may be applied to the benefit of our community in Southern Arizona as a case study. Our research will be used by NOAA's Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) and by an interdisciplinary collaborative team of researchers from the University of Arizona working with an electric utility to integrate climate information into their strategic planning.

  18. Questioning the Relevance of Model-Based Probability Statements on Extreme Weather and Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. A.

    2007-12-01

    We question the relevance of climate-model based Bayesian (or other) probability statements for decision support and impact assessment on spatial scales less than continental and temporal averages less than seasonal. Scientific assessment of higher resolution space and time scale information is urgently needed, given the commercial availability of "products" at high spatiotemporal resolution, their provision by nationally funded agencies for use both in industry decision making and governmental policy support, and their presentation to the public as matters of fact. Specifically we seek to establish necessary conditions for probability forecasts (projections conditioned on a model structure and a forcing scenario) to be taken seriously as reflecting the probability of future real-world events. We illustrate how risk management can profitably employ imperfect models of complicated chaotic systems, following NASA's study of near-Earth PHOs (Potentially Hazardous Objects). Our climate models will never be perfect, nevertheless the space and time scales on which they provide decision- support relevant information is expected to improve with the models themselves. Our aim is to establish a set of baselines of internal consistency; these are merely necessary conditions (not sufficient conditions) that physics based state-of-the-art models are expected to pass if their output is to be judged decision support relevant. Probabilistic Similarity is proposed as one goal which can be obtained even when our models are not empirically adequate. In short, probabilistic similarity requires that, given inputs similar to today's empirical observations and observational uncertainties, we expect future models to produce similar forecast distributions. Expert opinion on the space and time scales on which we might reasonably expect probabilistic similarity may prove of much greater utility than expert elicitation of uncertainty in parameter values in a model that is not empirically

  19. Heat flow and temperature-depth curves throughout Alaska: finding regions for future geothermal exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batir, Joseph F.; Blackwell, David D.; Richards, Maria C.

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this research is to contribute to the understanding of the thermal regime of Alaska and its relationship to geology, regional tectonics, and to suggest potential sites for future geothermal energy production. New heat flow data were collected and are combined with existing published and unpublished data, although large sections of Alaska still lack data. Fault traces were implemented into the heat flow contouring as an additional gridding constraint, to incorporate both heat flow measurements and geology. New heat flow data supported the use of geologic trends in the heat flow mapping procedure, and a heat flow map of Alaska was produced with this added constraint. The multi-input contouring strategy allows production of a map with a regional interpretation of heat flow, in addition to site-specific heat flow and thermal model interpretations in areas with sufficient data density. Utilizing the new heat flow map, temperature-at-depth curves were created for example areas. Temperature-at-depth curves are calculated to 10 km depth for the areas of Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and the Copper River Basin. The temperatures-at-depth predicted near the population centers of Anchorage and Juneau are relatively low, limiting the geothermal resource potential. The Fairbanks area temperature estimates are near conventional power production temperatures (150 °C) between 3.5 and 4 km. All data areas, except at Juneau, have temperatures sufficient for low temperature geothermal applications (40 °C) by 2 km. A high heat flow region exists within the Aleutian Volcanic Arc, although new data show heat flow variations from 59 to 120 mW m‑2, so individual geothermal resources within the arc will be irregularly located.

  20. Response of extreme flood characteristics based on future climate change scenarios at Yermasoyia watershed, Cyprus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Gkilimanakis, Eleftherios; Loukas, Athanasios

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study which was performed within working group 4 in the FloodFreq COST Action is to assess and quantify changes in daily streamflow and subsequent flood response modelling due to potential climate change in Yermasoyia watershed, Cyprus. Eight statistical downscaling methods are used to estimate historical and future daily precipitation and temperature timeseries. Four methods are based on change factors and four are bias correction methods and these methods are used to downscale precipitation and temperature output from fifteen RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project. Several well-known lumped hydrological model structures (such as the GR4J, the IHACRES models, and the AWBM) are applied to estimate the daily streamflows. Performance of the models is evaluated with the use of fit statistics or metrics for calibration and validation periods using the split sample test. A set of flood indices are derived from the daily simulated streamflows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing the periods 1960-1990 and 2070-2100. The results show that both the magnitude and the volume of annual peakflows is decreasing fow all examined scenarios, downscaling methods and employed hydrological models.

  1. Flood risk under future climate in data sparse regions: Linking extreme value models and flood generating processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramblay, Yves; Amoussou, Ernest; Dorigo, Wouter; Mahé, Gil

    2014-11-01

    For many areas in the world, there is a need for future projections of flood risk in order to improve the possible mitigation actions. However, such an exercise is often made difficult in data-sparse regions, where the limited access to hydrometric data does not allow calibrating hydrological models in a robust way under non-stationary conditions. In this study we present an approach to estimate possible changes in flood risks, which incorporates flood generating processes into statistical models for extreme values. This approach is illustrated for a West African catchment, the Mono River (12,900 km2), with discharge, precipitation and temperature data available between 1988 and 2010 and where the dominant flood generating process is soil saturation. A soil moisture accounting (SMA) model, calibrated against a merged surface soil moisture microwave satellite dataset, is used to estimate the annual maximum soil saturation level that is related to the location parameter of a generalized extreme value model of annual maximum discharge. With such a model, it is possible to estimate the changes in flood quantiles from the changes in the annual maximum soil saturation level. An ensemble of regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES-AMMA project are then considered to estimate the potential future changes in soil saturation and subsequently the changes in flood risks for the period 2028-2050. A sensitivity analysis of the non-stationary flood quantiles has shown that with the projected changes on precipitation (-2%) and temperature (+1.22°) under the scenario A1B, the projected flood quantiles would stay in the range of the observed variability during 1988-2010. The proposed approach, relying on low data requirements, could be useful to estimate the projected changes in flood risks for other data-sparse catchments where the dominant flood-generating process is soil saturation.

  2. Survival of the faucet snail after chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water bath treatments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mitchell, A.J.; Cole, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    The faucet snail Bithynia tentaculata, a nonindigenous aquatic snail from Eurasia, was introduced into Lake Michigan in 1871 and has spread to the mid-Atlantic states, the Great Lakes region, Montana, and most recently, the Mississippi River. The faucet snail serves as intermediate host for several trematodes that have caused large-scale mortality among water birds, primarily in the Great Lakes region and Montana. It is important to limit the spread of the faucet snail; small fisheries equipment can serve as a method of snail distribution. Treatments with chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water baths were tested to determine their effectiveness as a disinfectant for small fisheries equipment. Two treatments eliminated all test snails: (1) a 24-h exposure to Hydrothol 191 at a concentration of at least 20 mg/L and (2) a treatment with 50??C heated water for 1 min or longer. Faucet snails were highly resistant to ethanol, NaCl, formalin, Lysol, potassium permanganate, copper sulfate, Baquacil, Virkon, household bleach, and pH extremes (as low as 1 and as high as 13).

  3. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Romeo Upperman, Crystal; Parker, Jennifer; Jiang, Chengsheng; He, Xin; Murtugudde, Raghuram; Sapkota, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960–1989) that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate), including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events); responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies. PMID:26641244

  4. The biophysical and physiological basis for mitigated elevations in heart rate with electric fan use in extreme heat and humidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravanelli, Nicholas M.; Gagnon, Daniel; Hodder, Simon G.; Havenith, George; Jay, Ollie

    2016-07-01

    Electric fan use in extreme heat wave conditions has been thought to be disadvantageous because it might accelerate heat gain to the body via convection. However, it has been recently shown that fan use delays increases in heart rate even at high temperatures (42 °C) in young adults. We here assess the biophysical and physiological mechanisms underlying the apparently beneficial effects of fan use. Eight males (24 ± 3 y; 80.7 ± 11.7 kg; 2.0 ± 0.1 m2) rested at either 36 °C or 42 °C, with (F) or without (NF) electric fan use (4.2 m/s) for 120 min while humidity increased every 7.5 min by 0.3 kPa from a baseline value of 1.6 kPa. Heart rate (HR), local sweat rate (LSR), cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC), core and mean skin temperatures, and the combined convective/radiative heat loss (C+R), evaporative heat balance requirements (Ereq) and maximum evaporative potential (Emax) were assessed. C+R was greater with fan use at 36 °C (F 8 ± 6, NF 2 ± 2 W/m2; P = 0.04) and more negative (greater dry heat gain) with fan use at 42 °C (F -78 ± 4, NF -27 ± 2 W/m2; P < 0.01). Consequently, Ereq was lower at 36 °C (F 38 ± 16, NF 45 ± 3 W/m2; P = 0.04) and greater at 42 °C (F 125 ± 1, NF 74 ± 3 W/m2; P < 0.01) with fan use. However, fan use resulted in a greater Emax at baseline humidity at both 36 °C (F 343 ± 10, NF 153 ± 5 W/m2; P < 0.01) and 42 °C (F 376 ± 13, NF 161 ± 4 W/m2; P < 0.01) and throughout the incremental increases in humidity. Within the humidity range that a rise in HR was prevented by fan use but not without a fan, LSR was higher in NF at both 36 °C (P = 0.04) and 42 °C (P = 0.05), and skin temperature was higher in NF at 42 °C (P = 0.05), but no differences in CVC or core temperatures were observed (all P > 0.05). These results suggest that the delayed increase in heart rate with fan use during extreme heat and humidity is associated with improved evaporative efficiency.

  5. How well can change diagnose the effects of coupling of the Regional Atmosphere on ET of an Irrigated Surface Under Extreme Advection of Heat

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The role of imported heat and saturation deficit versus available energy on the energy balance of a cotton field is investigated in a semi-arid region under a range of conditions, including extreme horizontal advection of heat. Using eddy covariance measurements of water vapor fluxes, a modified Pen...

  6. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme climate and weather events such as droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones account for over 60% of the loss of life, and over 90% of total impacts, from natural disasters. Both observed trends and global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the frequency and intensity of extreme events is increasing, and will continue to increase as a result of climate change. Among planners and policy-makers at both national and international levels there is thus concern that this rise in extreme events will lead to greater losses in the future. Since low levels of development are associated with greater numbers of people killed and needing emergency assistance from natural disasters, the concern is most pronounced for least developed countries. If, however, these countries make substantial improvements in their levels of human development, as leading forecasters suggest may be the case over the coming decades, then their vulnerability to extreme events may fall. In this study, we examine the potential combined effects of increased extreme event frequency and improved levels of human development, to generate scenarios of risk levels into the second half of the century. It is the African continent for which these results may be the most relevant, since it is widely viewed as most vulnerable to increased risks from climate change; we focus on the particular country of Mozambique, which has experienced high losses from droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones in recent decades, and stands out as being among the most vulnerable in Africa. To assess the change in risk levels from the present until 2060, we pull together three pieces of analysis. The first is a statistical analysis of the losses from 1990-2007 from climate-related disasters, using national level data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the United Nations. From this analysis, we establish statistical relationships between several drivers of vulnerability—including country size

  7. The Escherichia coli small heat-shock proteins IbpA and IbpB prevent the aggregation of endogenous proteins denatured in vivo during extreme heat shock.

    PubMed

    Kuczyńska-Wiśnik, Dorota; Kedzierska, Sabina; Matuszewska, Ewelina; Lund, Peter; Taylor, Alina; Lipińska, Barbara; Laskowska, Ewa

    2002-06-01

    The roles of the Escherichia coli IbpA and IbpB chaperones in protection of heat-denatured proteins against irreversible aggregation in vivo were investigated. Overproduction of IbpA and IbpB resulted in stabilization of the denatured and reversibly aggregated proteins (the S fraction), which could be isolated from E. coli cells by sucrose gradient centrifugation. This finding is in agreement with the present model of the small heat-shock proteins' function, based mainly on in vitro studies. Deletion of the ibpAB operon resulted in almost twofold increase in protein aggregation and in inactivation of an enzyme (fructose-1,6-biphosphate aldolase) in cells incubated at 50 degrees C for 4 h, decreased efficiency of the removal of protein aggregates formed during prolonged incubation at 50 degrees C and affected cell viability at this temperature. IbpA/B proteins were not needed for removal of protein aggregates or for the enzyme protection/renaturation in cells heat shocked at 50 degrees C for 15 min. These results show that the IbpA/B proteins are required upon an extreme, long-term heat shock. Overproduction of IbpA but not IbpB caused an increase of the level of beta-lactamase precursor, which was localized in the S fraction, together with the IbpA protein, which suggests that the unfolded precursor binds to IbpA but not to IbpB. Although in the wild-type cells both E. coli small heat-shock proteins are known to localize in the S fraction, only 2% of total IbpB co-localized with the aggregated proteins in the absence of IbpA, while in the absence of IbpB, the majority of IbpA was present in the aggregates fraction. PMID:12055295

  8. Extreme degree of ionization in homogenous micro-capillary plasma columns heated by ultrafast current pulses.

    PubMed

    Avaria, G; Grisham, M; Li, J; Tomasel, F G; Shlyaptsev, V N; Busquet, M; Woolston, M; Rocca, J J

    2015-03-01

    Homogeneous plasma columns with ionization levels typical of megaampere discharges are created by rapidly heating gas-filled 520-μm-diameter channels with nanosecond rise time current pulses of 40 kA. Current densities of up to 0.3  GA cm^{-2} greatly increase Joule heating with respect to conventional capillary discharge Z pinches, reaching unprecedented degrees of ionization for a high-Z plasma column heated by a current pulse of remarkably low amplitude. Dense xenon plasmas are ionized to Xe^{28+}, while xenon impurities in hydrogen discharges reach Xe^{30+}. The unique characteristics of these hot, ∼300:1 length-to-diameter aspect ratio plasmas allow the observation of unexpected spectroscopic phenomena. Axial spectra show the unusual dominance of the intercombination line over the resonance line of He-like Al by nearly an order of magnitude, caused by differences in opacities in the axial and radial directions. These plasma columns could enable the development of sub-10-nm x-ray lasers. PMID:25793819

  9. Extreme Degree of Ionization in Homogenous Micro-Capillary Plasma Columns Heated by Ultrafast Current Pulses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avaria, G.; Grisham, M.; Li, J.; Tomasel, F. G.; Shlyaptsev, V. N.; Busquet, M.; Woolston, M.; Rocca, J. J.

    2015-03-01

    Homogeneous plasma columns with ionization levels typical of megaampere discharges are created by rapidly heating gas-filled 520 -μ m -diameter channels with nanosecond rise time current pulses of 40 kA. Current densities of up to 0.3 GA cm-2 greatly increase Joule heating with respect to conventional capillary discharge Z pinches, reaching unprecedented degrees of ionization for a high-Z plasma column heated by a current pulse of remarkably low amplitude. Dense xenon plasmas are ionized to Xe28 + , while xenon impurities in hydrogen discharges reach Xe30 + . The unique characteristics of these hot, ˜300 :1 length-to-diameter aspect ratio plasmas allow the observation of unexpected spectroscopic phenomena. Axial spectra show the unusual dominance of the intercombination line over the resonance line of He-like Al by nearly an order of magnitude, caused by differences in opacities in the axial and radial directions. These plasma columns could enable the development of sub-10-nm x-ray lasers.

  10. SISGR - In situ characterization and modeling of formation reactions under extreme heating rates in nanostructured multilayer foils

    SciTech Connect

    Hufnagel, Todd C.

    2014-06-09

    Materials subjected to extreme conditions, such as very rapid heating, behave differently than materials under more ordinary conditions. In this program we examined the effect of rapid heating on solid-state chemical reactions in metallic materials. One primary goal was to develop experimental techniques capable of observing these reactions, which can occur at heating rates in excess of one million degrees Celsius per second. One approach that we used is x-ray diffraction performed using microfocused x-ray beams and very fast x-ray detectors. A second approach is the use of a pulsed electron source for dynamic transmission electron microscopy. With these techniques we were able to observe how the heating rate affects the chemical reaction, from which we were able to discern general principles about how these reactions proceed. A second thrust of this program was to develop computational tools to help us understand and predict the reactions. From atomic-scale simulations were learned about the interdiffusion between different metals at high heating rates, and about how new crystalline phases form. A second class of computational models allow us to predict the shape of the reaction front that occurs in these materials, and to connect our understanding of interdiffusion from the atomistic simulations to measurements made in the laboratory. Both the experimental and computational techniques developed in this program are expected to be broadly applicable to a wider range of scientific problems than the intermetallic solid-state reactions studied here. For example, we have already begun using the x-ray techniques to study how materials respond to mechanical deformation at very high rates.

  11. Design of an Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer Suite for Isochoric-Heated Warm-Dense-Matter Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivancic, S.; Stillman, C. R.; Nilson, P. M.; Froula, D. H.

    2015-11-01

    An ultrafast streaked extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer (5 to 35 nm) is in development for the measurement of warm dense matter (WDM). In contrast to other forms of pyrometry where the temperature is inferred from bulk x-ray emission, XUV emission is restricted to the sample surface, allowing for the measurement of temperature at the material-vacuum interface. The measurement of the surface temperature is of particular importance in constraining models for the release of WDM. The divergence of surface and bulk temperature measurements may indicate gradients in temperature in the target. Coupling the XUV spectrometer to an ultrafast streak camera allows for the observation of picosecond time-scale evolution of the surface layer temperature. Two high-throughput XUV spectrometers are being designed to measure the time-resolved and absolute XUV emission. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944.

  12. Impact of Climate Change on Heavy Precipitation Events : Application of Extreme Value Theory to a Future Climate Simulation over the Colorado Headwaters Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ikeda, K.; Prein, A.; Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Holland, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Heavy precipitation cause devastating warm-season floods and cool-season snow and icing hazards that impact socio-economic communities of various scales. The frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events potentially are likely to be impacted by climate change. In this study we will investigate potential change in extreme precipitation intensity in a future climate over the Colorado headwaters region based on an extreme value approach ("peak-over-threshold" approach). The data come from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations of current and future climate conducted by the Colorado Headwaters Project (e.g., Rasmussen et al. 2011). The simulations were performed over eight years with 4, 12, and 36 km horizontal grid spacing. In the current study, we first evaluate the model ability to properly represent extreme precipitation events from the current climate simulation. Then we present changes in extreme precipitation intensity in the future climate for different seasons and over eight mountain ranges of the Colorado headwaters region. Our analyses so far have shown that the 4-km model outperformed coarser grid resolution models in representing extreme precipitation compared to Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) surface observations. Overall, the 10-year return level in the future climate increased (more intense extreme precipitation) for all mountain ranges in the cool season. There was a general decrease in the 10-year return level (less intense extreme precipitation) in the warm season. The sign and magnitude of the change shows regional differences possibly related to seasonal storm tracks and characteristics. Detailed analysis from case studies will be presented to illustrate the impacts of a warmer and moister atmosphere on the microphysical structure of storm clouds and surface precipitation distribution.

  13. Analysis of extreme climatic features over South America from CLARIS-LPB ensemble of regional climate models for future conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, E.; Zaninelli, P.; Carril, A.; Menendez, C.; Dominguez, M.

    2012-04-01

    An ensemble of seven regional climate models (RCM) included in the European CLARIS-LPB project (A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin) are used to study how some features related to climatic extremes are projected to be changed by the end of XXIst century. These RCMs are forced by different IPCC-AR4 global climate models (IPSL, ECHAM5 and HadCM3), covering three different 30-year periods: present (1960-1990), near future (2010-2040) and distant future (2070-2100), with 50km of horizontal resolution. These regional climate models have previously been forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis, in a consistent procedure with CORDEX (A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) initiative for the South-America domain. The analysis shows a good agreement among them and the available observational databases to describe the main features of the mean climate of the continent. Here we focus our analysis on some topics of interest related to extreme events, such as the development of diagnostics related to dry-spells length, the structure of the frequency distribution functions over several subregions defined by more or less homogeneous climatic conditions (four sub-basins over the La Plata Basin, the southern part of the Amazon basin, Northeast Brazil, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)), the structure of the annual cycle and their main features and relation with the length of the seasons, or the frequency of anomalous hot or cold events. One shortcoming that must be considered is the lack of observational databases with both time and spatial frequency to validate model outputs. At the same time, one challenging issue of this study is the regional modelling description of a continent where a huge variety of climates are present, from desert to mountain conditions, and from tropical to subtropical regimes. Another basic objective of this preliminary work is also to obtain a measure of the spread among

  14. Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration

  15. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  16. COMBINING EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION AND EXTREME VALUE THEORY METHODS TO CHARACTERIZE OBSERVED AND FUTURE CHANGES IN EXTREME U.S. AIR POLLUTION EVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The occurrence of meteorological conditions associated with poor air quality (i.e. elevated levels of ozone and particulate matter) that are classified as extreme events at present are expected to increase in a warmer climate. Using state-of-the-art statistical techniques, ...

  17. ICRF heating in Alcator C-Mod: Present status and future prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Porkolab, M.; Fiore, C.; Greenwald, M.; Hosea, J. C.; Hubbard, A.; Hutchinson, I.; Irby, J.; Nelson-Melby, E.; Marmar, E.; Phillips, C. K.

    1999-09-20

    Alcator C-Mod, the high field, high density, diverted, compact tokamak in the world's portfolio of high performance plasma fusion devices, is heated exclusively with ICRF auxiliary power. In this paper an overview of recent results is summarized, with particular attention given to the importance of RF operation and the flexibility afforded by different heating scenarios. Besides the routine minority heating operation, results in the mode conversion heating regime are also presented (mainly direct electron heating through mode converted ion Bernstein waves). Recent attempts at improving plasma performance by establishing internal transport barriers (ITBs) by various transient profile control techniques (the so-called Advanced Tokamak mode of operation) are also presented. Future improvements in performance afforded by the recent addition of a new 4-strap antenna and 4 MW of tunable (40-80 MHz) ICRF power are also discussed. Mode-conversion current drive (MCCD) and fast wave current drive (FWCD) will be among the many new options that will be tested with the goal of improving plasma performance. (c) 1999 American Institute of Physics.

  18. Extremes of heat conduction-Pushing the boundaries of the thermal conductivity of materials

    SciTech Connect

    Cahill, DG

    2012-09-12

    Thermal conductivity is a familiar property of materials: silver conducts heat well, and plastic does not. In recent years, an interdisciplinary group of materials scientists, engineers, physicists, and chemists have succeeded in pushing back long-established limits in the thermal conductivity of materials. Carbon nanotubes and graphene are at the high end of the thermal conductivity spectrum due to their high sound velocities and relative lack of processes that scatter phonons. Unfortunately, the superlative thermal properties of carbon nanotubes have not found immediate application in composites or interface materials because of difficulties in making good thermal contact with the nanotubes. At the low end of the thermal conductivity spectrum, solids that combine order and disorder in the random stacking of two-dimensional crystalline sheets, so-called "disordered layered crystals," show a thermal conductivity that is only a factor of 2 larger than air. The cause of this low thermal conductivity may be explained by the large anisotropy in elastic constants that suppresses the density of phonon modes that propagate along the soft direction. Low-dimensional quantum magnets demonstrate that electrons and phonons are not the only significant carriers of heat. Near room temperature, the spin thermal conductivity of spin-ladders is comparable to the electronic thermal conductivities of metals. Our measurements of nanoscale thermal transport properties employ a variety of ultrafast optical pump-probe metrology tools that we have developed over the past several years. We are currently working to extend these techniques to high pressures (60 GPa), high magnetic fields (5 T), and high temperatures (1000 K).

  19. Effect of cold water and inverse lighting on growth performance of broiler chickens under extreme heat stress.

    PubMed

    Park, Sang-oh; Park, Byung-sung; Hwangbo, Jong

    2015-07-01

    The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of provision of extreme heat stress diet (EHD), inverse lighting, cold water on growth performance of broiler chickens exposed to extreme heat stress. The chickens were divided into four treatment groups, (T1, T2, T3, T4) as given below: Ti (EHD 1, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T2 (EHD 2, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T3 (EHD 1, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 141C); T4 (EHD 2, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 14 degrees C. EHD 1 contained soybean oil, molasses, methionine and lysine; EHD 2 contained the same ingredients as EHD 1 with addition of vitamin C. Groups T1 and T2 were given cooler water than the othertwo groups, and displayed higher body weight increase and diet intake as compared to T3 and T4 (p<0.05). The weights of their liver and gizzard were similar but the weights of the thymus and bursa of fabricius (F) were higher in groups T1 and T2 (p<0.05). It was observed that groups T1 and T2 displayed higher concentrations of blood triglyceride, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and blood sugar as compared to T3 and T4; however LDL-cholesterol level was higher in groups T3 and T4 (p<0.05). T1 and T2 displayed higher levels of immunity substances such as IgG, IgAand IgM as compared to T3 and T4, but the blood level of corticosterone was lower in groups T1 and T2 (p<0.05). Ti and T2 contained higher amount of fecal Lactobacill as compared to T3 and T4; howeverT3 and T4 contained higher amount of fecal E. coli, total aerobic bacteria and coliform bacteria (p<0.05). Groups T1 and T2 displayed higher concentrations of cecal total short chain fatty acids, acetic acid and propionic acid but groups T3 and T4 displayed higher concentrations of butyric acid, isobutyric acid, valeric acid and isovaleric acid (p<0.05). The present study reports novel results such that the supply of extreme heat stress diet, inverse

  20. Understanding the 2013 Boulder Flood: Assessing Extreme Precipitation Events and Future Climates in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, R.; Neale, R. B.

    2014-12-01

    The Boulder flood of September 2013 resulted in significant structural damage, inundated communities, and accelerated land erosion in central and northern Colorado. This exceptional event led to approximately 11,000 people being evacuated in the area as more than 17 inches of rain fell in parts of Boulder County, Colorado in seven days. This storm resulted from persistent southerly flow and high precipitable water values which were responsible for the record-breaking precipitation. This study assessed the factors associated with extreme precipitation events in both observations and climate model simulations. Satellite-based observed precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-Interim Reanalysis of precipitable water and low-level winds were used in this study. Probability distribution functions (PDFs) were calculated for daily values of observational and reanalysis variables: precipitation, precipitable water, and low-level winds. Each of the PDFs were compared with equivalent variables in the CESM simulations and analyzed over three regions of different areal extent occupying the eastern Rocky Mountains. The PDF calculations were found to be sensitive to the choice of the spatial region with fewer high precipitable water events in the northern domain and a greater number of high precipitable water events in the more southerly domain. The similarities between observational and present-day CESM PDFs enabled us to study changes to PDF distributions in future climate simulations. They predict a significant increase in precipitable water over the Boulder flood region. Given the importance of high precipitable water in the 2013 Boulder flood precipitation event, the potential for more frequent and stronger flooding events in the future is significant.

  1. Heat wave beats green wave: the effect of a climate extreme on alpine grassland phenology as seen by phenocams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cremonese, Edoardo; Filippa, Gianluca; Migliavacca, Mirco; Siniscalco, Consolata; Oddi, Ludovica; Galvagno, Marta

    2016-04-01

    The year 2015 has been one of the warmest on record for many regions of the world. The record-breaking temperatures did not spare the European Alps, where the summer anomaly reached +4°C. This heat wave caused important impacts on the seasonal development and structural properties of alpine grasslands that deserve investigations. Phenocams are useful tools to describe canopy greenness seasonal dynamics and many recent studies demonstrated that the major phenological events (e.g. budbrust, senescence, …) can be extracted from greenness trajectories. In contrast, little is know about their capabilities to describe the impact of extreme climate events on a fully developed canopy. Moreover the relation between quantitative structural and functional vegetation properties (e.g. biomass, LAI, …) and phenocam data remains poorly investigated. In this study we examine the impact of the 2015 summer heat wave on a subalpine grassland by jointly analyzing phenocam greenness trajectories, proximal sensing and flux data together with field measures of vegetation structural properties. The effect of different environmental drivers on greenness seasonal development was further evaluated by a modeling approach (GSI model). Phenocam tracked the impact of heatwave 2015 that caused a lower canopy development and an anticipation of yellowing by more than 2 months. The same pattern was observed for CO2 fluxes, NDVI and field measures. GSI model results show that during the heatwave, a combination of moisture and high temperature limitation was responsible for the observed reduction of the canopy development. Moreover, spatially explicit analysis of digital images allowed to highlight the differential response of specific plant functional types to the extreme event.

  2. The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and a potential mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mingna; Yan, Xiaodong; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhang, Xuezhen

    2013-11-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of urban land use change to near-surface air temperature during the summer extreme heat events of the early twenty-first century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. This study uses the Weather Research Forecasting model with a single urban canopy model and the newest actual urban cover datasets. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60 °C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95 °C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34 %. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs, an effective way of reducing urban heat island, which can reduce the urban mean temperature by approximately 0.51 °C and counter approximately 80 % of the heat wave results from urban sprawl during the last 20 years.

  3. Extreme ultra-violet burst, particle heating, and whistler wave emission in fast magnetic reconnection induced by kink-driven Rayleigh-Taylor instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chai, Kil-Byoung; Zhai, Xiang; Bellan, Paul M.

    2016-03-01

    A spatially localized energetic extreme ultra-violet (EUV) burst is imaged at the presumed position of fast magnetic reconnection in a plasma jet produced by a coaxial helicity injection source; this EUV burst indicates strong localized electron heating. A circularly polarized high frequency magnetic field perturbation is simultaneously observed at some distance from the reconnection region indicating that the reconnection emits whistler waves and that Hall dynamics likely governs the reconnection. Spectroscopic measurement shows simultaneous fast ion heating. The electron heating is consistent with Ohmic dissipation, while the ion heating is consistent with ion trajectories becoming stochastic.

  4. Thermal Modeling and Analysis of a Cryogenic Tank Design Exposed to Extreme Heating Profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stephens, Craig A.; Hanna, Gregory J.

    1991-01-01

    A cryogenic test article, the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank, was designed to qualitatively simulate the thermal response of transatmospheric vehicle fuel tanks exposed to the environment of hypersonic flight. One-dimensional and two-dimensional finite-difference thermal models were developed to simulate the thermal response and assist in the design of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. The one-dimensional thermal analysis determined the required insulation thickness to meet the thermal design criteria and located the purge jacket to eliminate the liquefaction of air. The two-dimensional thermal analysis predicted the temperature gradients developed within the pressure-vessel wall, estimated the cryogen boiloff, and showed the effects the ullage condition has on pressure-vessel temperatures. The degree of ullage mixing, location of the applied high-temperature profile, and the purge gas influence on insulation thermal conductivity had significant effects on the thermal behavior of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. In addition to analysis results, a description of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank and the role it will play in future thermal structures and transatmospheric vehicle research at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility is presented.

  5. The role of water vapor and its associated latent heating in extreme Beaufort coastal storm surge events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyakum, J. R.; Small, D. L.; Atallah, E.; Liu, N.; Kuo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    During the rather limited ice-free season that typically may occur from late July through early October, the Beaufort Sea region is susceptible to extreme windstorms, many of which produce damaging storm surges to low-lying coastal communities. During the most recent years, the ice-free season has lengthened, suggesting an increased vulnerability of coastal communities to cyclogenesis-related windstorms. Therefore, our research focuses on the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms responsible for significant surface wind events during the ice-free season in this region. We demonstrate that these storm surge events are often associated with the generation of large-scale atmospheric circulation regomes conducive to North American droughts. Our analysis methodology includes the detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis, including numerical experiments, on a case of an especially long-lived extreme storm surge that occurred in September 1999. We utilize conventional surface and upper-air station data, along with satellite and ground-based water vapor data. We also utilize global and regional reanalysis data to document the synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments associated with the cyclogenesis events. Our numerical experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model include sensitivity testing with COSMIC-derived water vapor data, and sensitivity tests to illustrate the relative roles that latent heating plays in the storm surge event, at various stages in its lifecycle. A particularly important finding of our research on the devastating September 1999 storm surge event is that a relatively rare case of explosive cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Alaska is a key player in this Beaufort storm surge. The deep-tropospheric latent heating during the explosive cyclogenesis generates a dynamic tropopause ridge. This ridge in turn induces surface ridging that contributes to the strong west-northwesterlies associated with the storm surge. This generation of the dynamic

  6. Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

  7. Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2009-08-01

    Over the past 10 years, DOE has built a solid foundation for a robust CHP marketplace. We have aligned with key partners to produce innovative technologies and spearhead market-transforming projects. Our commercialization activities and Clean Energy Regional Application Centers have expanded CHP across the nation. More must be done to tap CHP’s full potential. Read more about DOE’s CHP Program in “Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future.”

  8. Intraday evaporation and heat fluxes variation at air-water interface of extremely shallow lakes in Chilean Andean Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Jaime; de la Fuente, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Salars are landscapes formed by evapo-concentration of salts that usually have extremely shallow terminal lagoons (de la Fuente & Niño, 2010). They are located in the altiplanic region of the Andes Mountains of Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru, and they sustain highly vulnerable and isolated ecosystems in the Andean Desert. These ecosystems are sustained by benthic primary production, which is directly linked to mass, heat and momentum transfer between the water column and the atmosphere (de la Fuente, 2014). Despite the importance of these transport processes across the air-water interface, there are few studies describing their intraday variation and how they are influenced by the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer in the altiplano. The main objective of this work is to analyze the intraday vertical transport variation of water vapor, temperature and momentum between the atmosphere and a shallow water body on Salar del Huasco located in northern Chile (20°19'40"S, 68°51'25"W). To achieve this goal, we measured atmospheric and water variables in a campaign realized on late October 2015, using high frequency meteorological instruments (a sonic anemometer with an incorporated infrared gas analyzer, and a standard meteorological station) and water sensors. From these data, we characterize the intraday variation of water vapor, temperature and momentum fluxes, we quantify the influence of the atmospheric boundary layer stability on them, and we estimate transfer coefficients associated to latent heat, sensible heat, hydrodynamic drag and vertical transport of water vapor. As first results, we found that latent and sensible heat fluxes are highly influenced by wind speed rather buoyancy, and we can identify four intraday intervals with different thermo-hydrodynamic features: (1) cooling under stable condition with wind speed near 0 from midnight until sunrise; (2) free convection with nearly no wind speed under unstable condition from sunrise until midday

  9. Are regional projections of extreme sea levels based on uncertain future MSL scenarios reliable? A case study for the south-eastern North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dangendorf, S.; Mudersbach, C.; Jensen, J.

    2012-12-01

    Recently a number of authors applied a method (offset method) to combine observations of present sea level extremes with projections of future sea level rise during the 21st century. The method provides a technique for estimating potential future exceedence probabilities based on the assumption that both variability and trends of extreme sea levels have been and will be driven by changes in MSL. This assumption has been confirmed for quasi-global (Woodworth et al. 2011) and regional data-sets (Marcos et al. 2009). However, if the assumption fails, the application of the method will result in large inaccuracies. In the present study, records from 13 tide gauges located in the German Bight, a part of the south-eastern North Sea, are investigated. Time series of extreme high sea levels, covering a period from 1900 to 2008, are analyzed relative to simultaneous changes in MSL. For that purpose in a first step only extreme sea levels have been analyzed, while in a second step MSL time series have been subtracted from the extremes to prove the evidence of trend and variability differences. The results point to a significantly stronger increase in extreme sea levels during the second half of the 20th century. While in the first half of the 20th century the evolution of extreme sea levels follows changes in MSL, in the second half a significant rise with values between 10 and 60 cm per century relative to the MSL has been observed. The divergent development varies seasonally. The largest deviations between extreme sea levels and the MSL have been detected during Season 1 [January to March], while considerably smaller but statistically significant changes have been observed during the remaining seasons. An investigation of reanalyzed datasets from the 20th century reanalysis project (20thCR) shows that large parts of the observed deviations are in phase with simultaneous changes in the local zonal extreme wind conditions and only small deviations remain. Using the above

  10. Computed and observed turbulent heat fluxes during an extreme Bora event in the Adriatic using atmosphere-ocean coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ličer, Matjaž; Smerkol, Peter; Fettich, Anja; Ravdas, Michalis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Mantziafou, Anneta; Strajnar, Benedikt; Cedilnik, Jure; Jeromel, Maja; Jerman, Jure; Petan, Sašo; Benetazzo, Alvise; Carniel, Sandro; Malačič, Vlado; Sofianos, Sarantis

    2016-04-01

    We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic Bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air-sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and Adriatic setup of POM (1°/30 × 1°/30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere-ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere-ocean fluxes (computed using modified Louis scheme) and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD measurements of fluxes (computed using COARE scheme) and temperatures from three observational platforms (Vida, Paloma, Acqua Alta) in the Northern Adriatic. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20% during the Bora but not significantly before and after the event. The impact of the coupling on the ocean is significant while the impact on the atmosphere is less pronounced. When compared to observations, two way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a four times lower RMSE than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss.

  11. Exposure to extreme heat events is associated with increased hay fever prevalence among nationally represntatvie sample of us, Adults: 1997-2013

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Warmer temperature can alter seasonality of pollen as well as pollen concentration, and may impact allergic diseases such as hay fever. Recent studies suggest that extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in coming decades. The overall objective of this study i...

  12. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on climate extreme indices in a multi-model experiment under present and future conditions (GLACE-CMIP5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events can be directly influenced by land surface-atmosphere interactions. It is important to investigate how extreme events might change in the future and the role these interactions play in amplifying extremes. The data from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments (Seneviratne et al., 2013) provide a unique opportunity to examine the influence of soil moisture on extremes in transient climate simulations from a range of climate models. The extreme indices we use are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and contain a range of indices based on daily minimum and maximum temperature as well as daily precipitation. The ETCCDI indices are available from observational datasets, reanalysis and as well as CMIP5 runs. Hence, these indices are widely used and can be compared to other sources. In this paper, we analyze the effects of land surface feedbacks on the extremes and their trends in the different global climate models. Seneviratne, S. I., et al. (2013). Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. GRL, 40(19), 5212-5217. doi:10.1002/grl.50956

  13. Identifying the Drivers and Occurrence of Historical and Future Extreme Air-quality Events in the United States Using Advanced Statistical Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, W. C.; Heald, C. L.; Cooley, D. S.; Russell, B. T.

    2013-12-01

    Episodes of air-quality extremes are known to be heavily influenced by meteorological conditions, but traditional statistical analysis techniques focused on means and standard deviations may not capture important relationships at the tails of these two respective distributions. Using quantile regression (QR) and extreme value theory (EVT), methodologies specifically developed to examine the behavior of heavy-tailed phenomena, we analyze extremes in the multi-decadal record of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States. We investigate observations from the Air Quality System (AQS) and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks for connections to meteorological drivers, as provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) product. Through regional characterization by quantile behavior and EVT modeling of the meteorological covariates most responsible for extreme levels of O3 and PM2.5, we estimate pollutant exceedance frequencies and uncertainties in the United States under current and projected future climates, highlighting those meteorological covariates and interactions whose influence on air-quality extremes differs most significantly from the behavior of the bulk of the distribution. As current policy may be influenced by air-quality projections, we then compare these estimated frequencies to those produced by NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) identifying regions, covariates, and species whose extreme behavior may not be adequately captured by current models.

  14. The extreme drought episode of August 2011-May 2012: A scenario for future droughts in Central Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahradníček, P.; Trnka, M.; Brázdil, R.; Mozny, M.; Stepanek, P.; Hlavinka, P.; Malý, A.; Dubrovsky, M.

    2014-12-01

    The weather conditions from August 2011 to May 2012 produced an extreme drought in the eastern Czech Republic (Moravia), whereas the patterns were nearly normal in its western region (Bohemia). The Southern and Central Moravia regions, which represent the most important agricultural areas, were most affected by the drought. The precipitation totals for the studied period were 50% to 70% of the long-term mean, which was calculated for 1961-2000. In autumn 2011, the total precipitation accounted for 10% to 30% of the long-term mean for most of Moravia, increasing to 30% to 50% in spring 2012. Moreover, 7.5% of the Czech Republic experienced a 100-year drought; 20% of the country experienced a 20-year drought. According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the 2012 drought was classified as the worst in the past 130 years. The drought patterns were related to the prevailing high-pressure systems over Central Europe and the occurrence of weather types with different precipitation amounts in Bohemia and Moravia. The most substantial drought effects occurred in the agricultural sector. A decrease in cereal yields was observed in the analyzed production areas in Moravia, which was unprecedented in the past 52 years. Moreover, winter crops were affected more than spring crops. An increased risk of fire occurred due to the drought conditions; the largest forest fire in the past 15 years was recorded during this period. Furthermore, signs of hydrological drought were also reported in rivers. The 2011-2012 drought was compared with the significant droughts in 2000, 2003 and 2007. Austria and Slovakia, which neighbor the Czech Republic, experienced a similar drought. This drought analysis can be used as a scenario for future droughts and their impacts in Central Europe due to the global warming projected by GCMs.Acknowledgements:This study was made possible by the generous support of the "Establishment of International Scientific Team Focused on Drought Research" project (no

  15. Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake: mechanisms, recent trends, and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Southern Ocean's dominant influence on the global heat balance and nutrient and carbon cycles stems from the fact that it is the primary gateway through which Earth's cold, centuries old and nutrient rich deep and bottom waters interact with the atmosphere. The westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere drive a strongly divergent surface flow that draws up water from below in a wide ring circling the Antarctic continent. In the first part of the talk, we assess the uptake, transport, and storage of oceanic anthropogenic carbon and heat in the Southern Ocean over the period 1861-2005 in a new set of carbon-climate Earth System Models. Simulations show that the Southern Ocean south of 30°S, covering only 30% of the global surface ocean area, accounts for more than 40% of global anthropogenic carbon uptake. Furthermore, the Southern Ocean takes up three quarters of the total excess heat generated by the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic carbon and heat storage show a common broad-scale pattern of change, but ocean heat storage is more structured than ocean carbon storage suggesting that different mechanisms are important. The Southern Ocean, however, remains the region where models differ the most in the representation of anthropogenic carbon and, in particular, heat uptake. While the Southern Ocean carbon uptake has increased considerably in recent decades, as expected based on the substantial increase in atmospheric CO2, there is considerable concern that this sink will saturate or even reverse in response to warming, changing ocean circulation and chemistry. In the second part of the talk, novel multi-millennial global warming simulations with a comprehensive Earth System Model under a 1% yr-1 atmospheric CO2 increase to 2xCO2 and constant forcing thereafter scenario will be used to explore future long-term changes in the Southern Ocean carbon uptake. We show that after full equilibration of the model with doubling of

  16. Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Hjalte; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Steen Mikkelsen, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Spatio-temporal precipitation is modelled for urban application at 1 h temporal resolution on a 2 km grid using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses weather generator (WG). Precipitation time series used as input to the WG are obtained from a network of 60 tipping-bucket rain gauges irregularly placed in a 40 km × 60 km model domain. The WG simulates precipitation time series that are comparable to the observations with respect to extreme precipitation statistics. The WG is used for downscaling climate change signals from regional climate models (RCMs) with spatial resolutions of 25 and 8 km, respectively. Six different RCM simulation pairs are used to perturb the WG with climate change signals resulting in six very different perturbation schemes. All perturbed WGs result in more extreme precipitation at the sub-daily to multi-daily level and these extremes exhibit a much more realistic spatial pattern than what is observed in RCM precipitation output. The WG seems to correlate increased extreme intensities with an increased spatial extent of the extremes meaning that the climate-change-perturbed extremes have a larger spatial extent than those of the present climate. Overall, the WG produces robust results and is seen as a reliable procedure for downscaling RCM precipitation output for use in urban hydrology.

  17. Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.

  18. Pelletization and encapsulation of general purpose heat source (GPHS) fueled clads for future space missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barklay, Chadwick D.; Miller, Roger G.; Malikh, Y.; Kalinovsky, A.; Aldoshin, A.

    1996-03-01

    Mankind must continue to explore the universe in order to gain a better understanding of how we relate to it and how we can best use its resources to our benefit. Because of the significant costs of this type of exploration, it can more effectively be accomplished through an international team effort. This unified effort must include the design, planning, and execution phases of future space missions, extending down to such activities as the processing, pelletization, and encapsulation of the fuel that will be used to support the spacecraft electrical power generation systems. Over the last 30 years, radioisotopes have provided heat from which electrical power is generated. For space missions, the isotope of choice has generally been 238PuO2, its long half-life making it ideal for supplying power to remote satellites and spacecraft like the Voyager, Pioneer, and Viking missions, as well as the recently launched Galileo and Ulysses missions, and the presently planned Cassini mission. Electric power for future space missions will be provided by either radioisotopic thermoelectric generators (RTG), radioisotope thermophotovoltaic systems (RTPV), radioisotope Stirling systems or a combination of these. However, all of the aforementioned systems will be thermally driven by General-Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) fueled clads in some configuration. Each GPHS fueled clad contains a 150-gram pellet of 238PuO2, and each pellet is encapsulated within an iridium-alloy shell. Historically, the fabrication of the iridium-alloy shells has been performed at EG&G Mound, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the girth welding of the GPHS capsules has been performed at Westinghouse Savannah River Corporation, and Los Alamos National Laboratory. This paper describes a cost effective alternative method for the production of GPHS capsules. Fundamental considerations such as the potential production options, the associated support activities, and the methodology to transport the welded

  19. The Modified Rainfall Anomaly Index (mRAI)—is this an alternative to the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) in evaluating future extreme precipitation characteristics?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Schucknecht, Anne; Matschullat, Jörg

    2016-02-01

    Precipitation extremes affect various economic sectors and may result in substantial costs for societies. Future projections of such extreme occurrences are needed to successfully develop robust regional adaptation strategies. Model ensemble-based approaches provide a higher level of confidence since they compensate to some degree for the uncertainties of individual climate model projections. An ensemble of twelve regional climate projections from five regional climate models was used to evaluate the suitability of a modified version of the Rainfall Anomaly Index (mRAI) as an alternative to the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) in assessing future precipitation conditions. We compared frequency distributions and trends of the mRAI with the SPI for a test region that is climatologically representative of Central Eastern Europe. Both indices are highly correlated with each other at all tested timescales—both for stations and for regionally averaged data—with Pearson correlation coefficients >>0.9 and Spearman correlation coefficients >0.99. There are no significant differences in their frequency distributions, although the mRAI shows slightly higher frequencies in the classes of `moderately dry' to `very dry' conditions. The change signals revealed by SPI and mRAI are very similar for mean changes as well as for changes in the extremes. Considering the large bandwidth of change signals of individual regional climate projections, the mRAI provides sufficiently robust results for the evaluation of future precipitation anomaly trends. The notably more complex calculation of the SPI has no appreciable advantage for this application.

  20. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  1. Impact of past and future climate variability and extreme events on carbon loss in European arable agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Khabarov, Nikolay; Beer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Predictions of climate models suggest an increase in climate variability and an increased probability in the occurrence of extreme weather events during this century. The expected increase in variability of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation will impact the productive functions as well as the ecosystem services agricultural systems provide, including the storage of soil organic carbon. Here we use a methodology and specifically tailored climate datasets that were developed in the EU FP7 CARBO-Extreme project to analyze the effect of increased climate variability on long term soil organic carbon sequestration, erosion and crop production in Europe. We quantified the changing impact of extreme events on carbon dynamics and soil organic carbon loss from agricultural soil cultivated with wheat, barley, maize and rye in Europe for the period from 1900-2100. In separate simulations we specifically address the potential losses of soil carbon associated with erosion. We further characterized the effect of CO2 fertilization on crop growth. Preliminary results indicate a growing contribution of extreme weather generally lowering biomass production and crop yields in Europe, albeit with regional variations. This decrease will lead to a relatively lower input of organic matter into the soil and generally lower soil organic carbon stocks. Yet, in areas characterized by relatively drier conditions the decomposition of organic material and thus heterotrophic transpiration is reduced which can result in a net accumulation of soil organic matter. Finally, we attempted to identify the cropland area susceptible to increased carbon loss due to climate extremes by unraveling the relative contribution of the combined spatial fingerprint of physiographic characteristics and climate extremes over Europe.

  2. Future joint probability behaviors of precipitation extremes across China: Spatiotemporal patterns and implications for flood and drought hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jianfeng; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, Vijay P.

    2015-01-01

    Observed daily precipitation from 527 meteorology stations in China during 1960-2005, and simulated daily precipitation from five Earth System Models (ESMs) under historical, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets are analyzed to investigate joint probability behaviors of precipitation extremes in China during 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Five joint return periods based on six extreme precipitation indices are defined. These joint return periods consider co-occurrence of extreme heavy and weak precipitation, as well as joint extreme heavy precipitation events in terms of different combinations of extreme precipitation amount, intensity, fractional contribution to annual precipitation days, and consecutive wet periods. Weather Generator Model (WGEN) is used to downscale the outputs of ESMs, and Copula is applied to construct joint probability distributions. The variations of joint return periods with 5-year marginal values (marginal values larger than their 5-year return period values respectively) and 20-year marginal values are discussed to represent changes in joint probability behaviors. Results show that: (1) during 1960-2005, spatial distributions of joint return periods with 5-year marginal values are similar to those with 20-year marginal values; (2) changes in marginal distributions and bivariate relationships between extreme indices may be the causes of joint probability distribution shift; (3) in general, during 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, there is less co-occurrence of consecutive wet and dry days, and more joint extreme heavy precipitation events with various aspects, implying less risk of co-occurrence of floods and droughts in the same year but higher risk of floods in China. But north China may face higher risk of co-occurrence of severe floods and droughts in the same year; and (4) changes in joint return periods under RCP8.5 are more remarkable than under RCP2.6. Even under RCP2.6, a scenario 2

  3. The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and white roof mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mingna

    2015-04-01

    The UHI effect can aggravate summertime heat waves and strongly influence human comfort and health, leading to greater mortality in metropolitan areas. Many geo-engineering technological strategies have been proposed to mitigate climate warming, and for the UHI, increasing the albedo of artificial urban surfaces (rooftops or pavements) has been considered a lucrative and effective way to cool cities. The objective of this work is to quantify the contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events of the early 21st century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, using the mesoscale WRF model coupled with a single urban canopy model and actual urban land cover datasets. This work also investigates a simulation of the regional effects of white roof technology by increasing the albedo of urban areas in the urban canopy model to mitigate the urban heat island, especially in extreme heat waves. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60°C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95°C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34%. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs. White roofs reflect a large fraction of incoming sunlight in the daytime, which reduced the net radiation so that the roof surface keep at a lower temperature than regular solar-absorptive roofs. Urban net radiation decreases by approximately 200 W m-2 at local noon because of high solar reflectance of white roofs, which cools the daytime urban temperature afer sunrise, with the largest decrease of almost -0.80

  4. The Extreme Conditions Beamline at PETRA III, DESY: Possibilities to conduct time resolved monochromatic diffraction experiments in dynamic and laser heated DAC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liermann, H.-P.; Morgenroth, W.; Ehnes, A.; Berghäuser, A.; Winkler, B.; Franz, H.; Weckert, E.

    2010-03-01

    We present plans for the new Extreme Conditions Beamline at PETRA III, DESY, Germany. The beamline is being designed and built with the specific goal to explore time resolved high-pressure and -temperature x-ray diffraction experiments in the dynamic and laser heated diamond anvil cell. Within we discuss the conceptual design of the optical components and experimental setup to conduct monochromatic high-pressure powder diffraction experiments in the sub-second time regime.

  5. Heat emergencies

    MedlinePlus

    Heat emergencies or illnesses are caused by exposure to extreme heat and sun. Heat illnesses can be prevented by ... to regulate the temperature, and make a heat emergency more likely: Drinking alcohol before or during exposure ...

  6. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system. PMID:23787302

  7. Urban population vulnerability to climate extremes: mitigating urban heat through technology and water-sensitive urban design in Australian cities (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapper, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    Australia recently endured what was arguably its worst drought in 200 years. The 'Millennium Drought' lasted from 1999 until 2009, producing acute water shortages for several major Australian cities. Towards the end of the drought an extreme heat wave with temperatures approaching 50 C claimed the lives of several hundred people in Melbourne and Adelaide. One outcome of the extreme conditions was that the spectre of climate change and its impacts became very real for most Australians and contributed to the 2007 signing of the Kyoto Protocol by the Australian Government. Issues of extreme heat and water security also led to increased interest in adapting Australian cities to climate change. These concerns ultimately led to the establishment of the Australian Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Water Sensitive Cities, a $110 million research initiative to utilise storm water in Australian cities to create cooler and more liveable environments with increased levels of water security. This paper provides an overview of the work being undertaken within the urban climate program of the CRC to identify heat-health vulnerability in our cities and to evaluate the efficacy of irrigated green infrastructure to produce more liveable environments. This papers discusses some of the early research outputs that involve measurement, modelling and remote sensing at a range of scales in Australian cities.

  8. District heating and cooling systems of the future: Strategies for global change

    SciTech Connect

    McCabe, R.E.

    1996-12-31

    The future of district heating and cooling, also known as district energy, will be a function of economic and regulatory forces in the US. Typically a district energy system provides thermal energy in the form of steam, hot water, or chilled water from a central plant, and distributes the energy through pipes to two or more buildings. At the present time, district energy is under-utilized and serves only 1.3 percent of US energy needs, providing a total of 1.1 quadrillion Btu of energy annually. A brief review of the historical development of district energy, the status of the technology in the US, and a few basics on world energy consumption lead in to the economic and environmental advantages of district energy. District energy systems have been retrofitted to comply wit h the regulations of the Clean Air Act (CAA); presently emissions of greenhouse gases, such as CO{sub 2}, are not regulated by the CAA. If the results of ongoing investigation on global climate change determine that regulation is warranted, several strategies exist for district energy systems to offer significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of district energy`s reaction to the ongoing forces are possible with the use of energy consumption forecasts through the year 2015, and a discussion of trend setting concepts being applied involving: gas turbines, cogeneration, fuel cells, chillers, advanced transmission fluids, renewable energies, and CO{sub 2} capture. District energy has potential to be an important part of the evolving strategies for global climate change. For this reason, combined with technology advancements and a supportive economic climate, a new era in district energy has begun. Growth and development of district energy into the foreseeable future is expected to be strong.

  9. Influence of Solar and Thermal Radiation on Future Heat Stress Using CMIP5 Archive Driving the Community Land Model Version 4.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

    2015-12-01

    The summer of 2015 has experienced major heat waves on 4 continents, and heat stress left ~4000 people dead in India and Pakistan. Heat stress is caused by a combination of meteorological factors: temperature, humidity, and radiation. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) uses Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)—an empirical metric this is calibrated with temperature, humidity, and radiation—for determining labor capacity during heat stress. Unfortunately, most literature studying global heat stress focuses on extreme temperature events, and a limited number of studies use the combination of temperature and humidity. Recent global assessments use WBGT, yet omit the radiation component without recalibrating the metric.Here we explicitly calculate future WBGT within a land surface model, including radiative fluxes as produced by a modeled globe thermometer. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), which is a component model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). To drive our CLM4.5 simulations, we use greenhouse gasses Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (business as usual), and atmospheric output from the CMIP5 Archive. Humans work in a variety of environments, and we place the modeled globe thermometer in a variety of environments. We modify CLM4.5 code to calculate solar and thermal radiation fluxes below and above canopy vegetation, and in bare ground. To calculate wet bulb temperature, we implemented the HumanIndexMod into CLM4.5. The temperature, wet bulb temperature, and radiation fields are calculated at every model time step and are outputted 4x Daily. We use these fields to calculate WBGT and labor capacity for two time slices: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100.

  10. Liquid droplet radiator development status. [waste heat rejection devices for future space vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, K. Alan, III

    1987-01-01

    Development of the Liquid Droplet Radiator (LDR) is described. Significant published results of previous investigators are presented, and work currently in progress is discussed. Several proposed LDR configurations are described, and the rectangular and triangular configurations currently of most interest are examined. Development of the droplet generator, collector, and auxiliary components are discussed. Radiative performance of a droplet sheet is considered, and experimental results are seen to be in very good agreement with analytical predictions. The collision of droplets in the droplet sheet, the charging of droplets by the space plasma, and the effect of atmospheric drag on the droplet sheet are shown to be of little consequence, or can be minimized by proper design. The LDR is seen to be less susceptible than conventional technology to the effects of micrometeoroids or hostile threats. The identification of working fluids which are stable in the orbital environments of interest is also made. Methods for reducing spacecraft contamination from an LDR to an acceptable level are discussed. Preliminary results of microgravity testing of the droplet generator are presented. Possible future NASA and Air Force missions enhanced or enabled by a LDR are also discussed. System studies indicate that the LDR is potentially less massive than heat pipe radiators. Planned microgravity testing aboard the Shuttle or space station is seen to be a logical next step in LDR development.

  11. Comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling of extreme precipitations over France in present-day and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colin, Jeanne; Déqué, Michel; Sanchez Gomez, Emila; Somot, Samuel

    2010-05-01

    We present a comparison of two downscaling methods of extreme precipitations over France at a climatic time scale : a dynamical one performed with the Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate used at a resolution of 12 km, and a statistical one based on the weather regime approach and using the analog methodology to reconstruct daily fields of precipitations at a 8 km resolution. We focus on the most heavy precipitations of the area of interest, which occur in southeastern France in Autumn. Those involve small-scale processes than can be explicitly resolved only with 2-1 km resolution non-hydrostatic models. However, such models can not be used for climate simulations because of their computational cost is still too high. Yet these extreme events cause rather heavy damages, so that their possible evolution in the context of climate change is of great concern. Thus, there is strong need in assessing downscaling methods' ability to represent them. First, we downscale the low-resolution ERA40 re-analysis over the 1958-2000 time period with ALADIN-Climate, and from the year 1980 to the year 2000 with the statistical method. Then, we apply a quantile-quantile correction to the daily precipitations of the last twenty years of the ALADIN-Climate simulation. The correction rates are computed over the first part of the simulation (1958-1979) using a high-resolution gridded database : the SAFRAN analysis, which provides series of hourly fields for the 1958-2008 period over the french territory at a 8 km resolution. We assess the performances of each downscaling method in present-day climate by comparing the simulated precipitations to the SAFRAN database. The use of the ERA40 re-analysis allows to reproduce the real chronology in both downscalings, which enables to analyze the results not only from a statistical point of view but also through day-to-day diagnosis such as time correlations or spatial patterns of rain for given extreme events. Secondly, we apply these downscaling

  12. Quantifying and Reducing the Uncertainties in Future Projections of Droughts and Heat Waves for North America that Result from the Diversity of Models in CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Sheffield, J.

    2014-12-01

    There are many sources of uncertainty regarding the future projections of our climate, including the multiple possible Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the variety of climate models used, and the initial and boundary conditions with which they are run. Moreover, it has been shown that the internal variability of the climate system can sometimes be of the same order of magnitude as the climate change signal or even larger for some variables. Nonetheless, in order to help inform stakeholders in water resources and agriculture in North America when developing adaptation strategies, particularly for extreme events such as droughts and heat waves, it is necessary to study the plausible range of changes that the region might experience during the 21st century. We aim to understand and reduce the uncertainties associated with this range of possible scenarios by focusing on the diversity of climate models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Data output from various CMIP5 models is compared against near surface climate and land-surface hydrological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)-2 to evaluate how well each climate model represents the land-surface processes associated with droughts and heat waves during the overlapping historical period (1979-2005). These processes include the representation of precipitation and radiation and their partitioning at the land surface, land-atmosphere interactions, and the propagation of signals of these extreme events through the land surface. The ability of the CMIP5 models to reproduce these important physical processes for regions of North America is used to inform a multi-model ensemble in which models that represent the processes relevant to droughts and heat waves better are given more importance. Furthermore, the future projections are clustered to identify possible dependencies in behavior across models. The results indicate a wide range in performance

  13. Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate

  14. Responses of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, to temperature extremes and dehydration: levels of tolerance, rapid cold hardening and expression of heat shock proteins.

    PubMed

    Benoit, J B; Lopez-Martinez, G; Teets, N M; Phillips, S A; Denlinger, D L

    2009-12-01

    This study of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, examines tolerance of adult females to extremes in temperature and loss of body water. Although the supercooling point (SCP) of the bed bugs was approximately -20 degrees C, all were killed by a direct 1 h exposure to -16 degrees C. Thus, this species cannot tolerate freezing and is killed at temperatures well above its SCP. Neither cold acclimation at 4 degrees C for 2 weeks nor dehydration (15% loss of water content) enhanced cold tolerance. However, bed bugs have the capacity for rapid cold hardening, i.e. a 1-h exposure to 0 degrees C improved their subsequent tolerance of -14 and -16 degrees C. In response to heat stress, fewer than 20% of the bugs survived a 1-h exposure to 46 degrees C, and nearly all were killed at 48 degrees C. Dehydration, heat acclimation at 30 degrees C for 2 weeks and rapid heat hardening at 37 degrees C for 1 h all failed to improve heat tolerance. Expression of the mRNAs encoding two heat shock proteins (Hsps), Hsp70 and Hsp90, was elevated in response to heat stress, cold stress and during dehydration and rehydration. The response of Hsp90 was more pronounced than that of Hsp70 during dehydration and rehydration. Our results define the tolerance limits for bed bugs to these commonly encountered stresses of temperature and low humidity and indicate a role for Hsps in responding to these stresses. PMID:19941608

  15. Extreme Halophiles and Carbon Monoxide: Looking Through Windows at Earth's Past and Towards a Future on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, G.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon monoxide, which is ubiquitous on Earth, is the 2nd most abundant molecule in the universe. Members of the domain Bacteria have long been known to oxidize it, and activities of CO oxidizers in soils have been known for several decades to contribute to tropospheric CO regulation. Nonetheless, the diversity of CO oxidizers and their evolutionary history remain largely unknown. A molybdenum-dependent dehydrogenase (Mo-CODH) couples CO oxidation by most terrestrial and marine bacteria to either O2 or nitrate. Molybdenum dependence, the requirement for O2 and previous phylogenetic inferences have all supported a relatively late evolution for "aerobic" CO oxidation, presumably after the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) about 2.3 Gya. Although conundrums remain, recent discoveries suggest that Mo-CODH might have evolved before the GOE, and prior to the Bacteria-Archaea split. New phylogenetic analyses incorporating sequences from extremely halophilic CO-oxidizing Euryarchaeota isolated from salterns in the Atacama Desert, brines on Hawai`i and from the Bonneville Salt Flat suggest that Mo-CODH was present in an ancestor shared by Bacteria and Archaea. This observation is consistent with results of phylogenetic histories of genes involved in Mo-cofactor synthesis, and findings by others that Mo-nitrogenase was likely active > 3 Gya. Thus, analyses of Mo-dependent CO oxidizers provide a window on the past by raising questions about the availability of Mo and non-O2 electron acceptors. Extremely halophilic CO oxidizers also provide insights relevant for understanding the potential for extraterrestrial life. CO likely occurred at high concentrations in Mars' early atmosphere, and it occurs presently at about 800 ppm. At such high concentrations, CO represents one of the most abundant energy sources available for near-surface regolith. However, use of CO by an extant or transplanted Mars microbiota would require tolerance of low water potentials and high salt concentrations

  16. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  17. Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends

  18. Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

  19. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glancy, Patrick A.

    1994-01-01

    Coyote Wash, east of Yucca Mountain and southwest of the Nevada Test Site, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to investigate the feasibility of underground storage of radioactive waste. The potential for flooding and related fluvial-debris hazards was investigated with respect to the potential shaft location. Trenches excavated through fluvial sediment deposits revealed interstratified rock detritus emplaced by floods and debris flows. Most of the deposits are believed to be of late Quaternary age. Debros-flow deposits contain boulders as large as 3 feet in diameter. This evidence of intense prehistoric flooding and debris movement indicates the possibility of similar continuing activity. Empirical estimates of extreme flood flows in North Fork Coyote Wash, a 0.094- square-mile drainage to the shaft site, range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second. Current (1992) knowledge indicates that flows of water and debris as much as 2,500 cubic feet per second can occur in the vicinity of the shaft from this drainage. Similar size flows from adjacent South Fork Coyote Wash, could arrive simultaneously in the vicinity of the shaft. Thus, cumulative water and debris from both tributaries could subject the alluvial flood plain near the shaft site to flows of as much as 5,000 cubic feet per second.

  20. Tuning extreme ultraviolet emission for optimum coupling with multilayer mirrors for future lithography through control of ionic charge states

    SciTech Connect

    Ohashi, Hayato Higashiguchi, Takeshi Suzuki, Yuhei; Kawasaki, Masato; Li, Bowen; Dunne, Padraig; O'Sullivan, Gerry; Kanehara, Tatsuhiko; Aida, Yuya; Nakamura, Nobuyuki; Torii, Shuichi; Makimura, Tetsuya; Jiang, Weihua

    2014-01-21

    We report on the identification of the optimum plasma conditions for a laser-produced plasma source for efficient coupling with multilayer mirrors at 6.x nm for beyond extreme ultraviolet lithography. A small shift to lower energies of the peak emission for Nd:YAG laser-produced gadolinium plasmas was observed with increasing laser power density. Charge-defined emission spectra were observed in electron beam ion trap (EBIT) studies and the charge states responsible identified by use of the flexible atomic code (FAC). The EBIT spectra displayed a larger systematic shift of the peak wavelength of intense emission at 6.x nm to longer wavelengths with increasing ionic charge. This combination of spectra enabled the key ion stage to be confirmed as Gd{sup 18+}, over a range of laser power densities, with contributions from Gd{sup 17+} and Gd{sup 19+} responsible for the slight shift to longer wavelengths in the laser-plasma spectra. The FAC calculation also identified the origin of observed out-of-band emission and the charge states responsible.

  1. Using a Clean Energy Version of Moore's Law to Plan for the Extreme Efficiency of the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Buskirk, Robert

    2014-03-01

    In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted a decade of exponential growth in the transistor density growth (and hence computing power) for integrated circuits that--with some modification--has held to the present day. In this talk, we discuss to what extent clean energy technologies are subject to similar laws of long term exponential improvement and how these improvement rates may be accelerating due to recent developments. We review a range of long term energy efficiency and technology productivity improvement trends ranging from lighting, televisions, refrigerators, HVAC, batteries, motors, power electronics and solar PV. After reviewing historical and recent trends, we discuss several factors that may lead to an acceleration of improvement rates in the clean energy technology sector. Finally, we discuss the Baumol effect which predicts how differential trends in technology productivity may affect trends in relative prices in the economy. We conclude with a discussion of some of the implications that Baumol's theories may have for the development of extreme levels of energy efficiency in the coming decades.

  2. Temperature acclimation rate of aerobic scope and feeding metabolism in fishes: implications in a thermally extreme future.

    PubMed

    Sandblom, Erik; Gräns, Albin; Axelsson, Michael; Seth, Henrik

    2014-11-01

    Temperature acclimation may offset the increased energy expenditure (standard metabolic rate, SMR) and reduced scope for activity (aerobic scope, AS) predicted to occur with local and global warming in fishes and other ectotherms. Yet, the time course and mechanisms of this process is little understood. Acclimation dynamics of SMR, maximum metabolic rate, AS and the specific dynamic action of feeding (SDA) were determined in shorthorn sculpin (Myoxocephalus scorpius) after transfer from 10°C to 16°C. SMR increased in the first week by 82% reducing AS to 55% of initial values, while peak postprandial metabolism was initially greater. This meant that the estimated AS during peak SDA approached zero, constraining digestion and leaving little room for additional aerobic processes. After eight weeks at 16°C, SMR was restored, while AS and the estimated AS during peak SDA recovered partly. Collectively, this demonstrated a considerable capacity for metabolic thermal compensation, which should be better incorporated into future models on organismal responses to climate change. A mathematical model based on the empirical data suggested that phenotypes with fast acclimation rates may be favoured by natural selection as the accumulated energetic cost of a slow acclimation rate increases in a warmer future with exacerbated thermal variations. PMID:25232133

  3. Measuring the Dayside Thermospheric Resonse to Extreme Joule Heating Events Using SuperDARN and TIMED GUVI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, J. B.; Greenwald, R. A.; Paxton, L. J.; Zhang, Y.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Oksavik, K.

    2005-12-01

    A major goal of the NASA TIMED spacecraft is to understand the transfer of energy from the magnetosphere into the Mesosphere-Lower-Thermosphere-Ionosphere (MLTI) region. Joule and auroral particle heating at high latitudes are two processes by which magnetospheric energy can be deposited within the MLTI. In this session, we will present large-scale maps of dayside Joule heating rates obtained by combining ionospheric electric field measurements from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) with estimates for the ionospheric Pedersen conductance obtained from TIMED Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) auroral images. These Joule heating maps will be compared with maps of the GUVI O/N2 ratio, thereby providing a measure of the change in thermospheric composition associated with the Joule heating events and the subsequent transport of those perturbations via neutral winds.

  4. A Study of Heat Stress in Extremely Hot Environments, and the Infra-red Reflectance of Some Potential Shielding Materials

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Charles E.; Scherberger, Richard F.; Miller, Franklin A.

    1960-01-01

    In the course of evaluating industrial heat exposures, three very hot environments having heat stress indices over 300 have been analysed by the techniques of Haines and Hatch (1952) and Belding and Hatch (1955). In addition, pulse and oral temperature measurements were made on three subjects exposed to these environments. These studies indicate that the methods of Haines and Hatch and Belding and Hatch tend to err on the side of safety when applied to very hot areas. Safe exposure times calculated by their techniques are approximately one-third those determined by either physiological measurement or by safe tolerance curves recommended by the American Society of Heating and Ventilation Engineers (ASHVE). The intelligent use of shielding as a method of protecting workers from radiant heat requires a knowledge of the infra-red reflectance curves of common industrial materials. Nineteen such curves are included. Images PMID:14416497

  5. Management of climatic heat stress risk in construction: a review of practices, methodologies, and future research.

    PubMed

    Rowlinson, Steve; Yunyanjia, Andrea; Li, Baizhan; Chuanjingju, Carrie

    2014-05-01

    Climatic heat stress leads to accidents on construction sites brought about by a range of human factors emanating from heat induced illness, and fatigue leading to impaired capability, physical and mental. It is an occupational characteristic of construction work in many climates and the authors take the approach of re-engineering the whole safety management system rather than focusing on incremental improvement, which is current management practice in the construction industry. From a scientific viewpoint, climatic heat stress is determined by six key factors: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) radiant heat, and (4) wind speed indicating the environment, (5) metabolic heat generated by physical activities, and (6) "clothing effect" that moderates the heat exchange between the body and the environment. By making use of existing heat stress indices and heat stress management processes, heat stress risk on construction sites can be managed in three ways: (1) control of environmental heat stress exposure through use of an action-triggering threshold system, (2) control of continuous work time (CWT, referred by maximum allowable exposure duration) with mandatory work-rest regimens, and (3) enabling self-paced working through empowerment of employees. Existing heat stress practices and methodologies are critically reviewed and the authors propose a three-level methodology for an action-triggering, localized, simplified threshold system to facilitate effective decisions by frontline supervisors. The authors point out the need for "regional based" heat stress management practices that reflect unique climatic conditions, working practices and acclimatization propensity by local workers indifferent geographic regions. The authors set out the case for regional, rather than international, standards that account for this uniqueness and which are derived from site-based rather than laboratory-based research. PMID:24079394

  6. Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boschat, Ghyslaine; Pezza, Alexandre; Simmonds, Ian; Perkins, Sarah; Cowan, Tim; Purich, Ariaan

    2015-04-01

    Australia has been exposed to a vast array of extreme weather regimes over the past few years, and the frequency and intensity of these events are expected to increase as a result of anthropogenic climate change. However, the predictability of extreme droughts, heat waves (HWs), bushfires and floods, is still hampered by our inability to fully understand how these weather systems interact with each other and with the climate system. This study brings new insight into the regional and large scale dynamics of some extreme events in Australia, by describing and comparing the climate signature of summer HWs and extreme rainfall events which have occurred in the states of Victoria and Queensland respectively, during 1979-2013. Our analyses highlight the importance of mid-latitude dynamics operating during HWs, in contrast with more tropical interactions at play during extreme rainfall events. A `common' blocking high pressure system is observed over the Tasman Sea during the two types of extreme events, and may explain why some southeastern HWs (only about 25 %) occur in close succession with floods in Queensland. However, our results suggest that there is no dynamical link between these two types of events, since the HW-related anticyclone evolves as part of a baroclinic wave train, whereas in the case of rainfall events, this structure emerges as an equivalent barotropic response to tropical convection. Sub-regional surface temperatures and air-sea fluxes also suggest that distinct processes may be operating in the lead up to these two events. Indeed, HWs tend to occur when the wave train propagates from the south Indian to the Pacific Ocean, inducing a quasi-stationary blocking high system over the Tasman Sea. This anticyclonic anomaly can then advect hot dry air towards the southern Victorian coast, where it produces HW conditions. On the other hand, extreme rainfall events mostly occur when the background conditions correspond to a La Niña state. The convection

  7. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Glancy, P.A.

    1994-09-01

    Coyote Wash, an approximately 0.3-square-mile drainage on the eastern flank of Yucca Mountain, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for construction of an underground repository for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes. An ongoing investigation is addressing the potential for hazards to the site and surrounding areas from flooding and related fluvial-debris movement. Unconsolidated sediments in and adjacent to the channel of North Fork Coyote Wash were examined for evidence of past floods. Trenches excavated across and along the valley bottom exposed multiple flood deposits, including debris-flow deposits containing boulders as large as 2 to 3 feet in diameter. Most of the alluvial deposition probably occurred during the late Quaternary. Deposits at the base of the deepest trench overlie bedrock and underlie stream terraces adjacent to the channel; these sediments are moderately indurated and probably were deposited during the late Pleistocene. Overlying nonindurated deposits clearly are younger and may be of Holocene age. This evidence of intense flooding during the past indicates that severe flooding and debris movement are possible in the future. Empirical estimates of large floods of the past range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second from the 0.094-square-mile drainage area of North Fork Coyote Wash drainage at two proposed shaft sites. Current knowledge indicates that mixtures of water and debris are likely to flow from North Fork Coyote Wash at rates up to 2,500 cubic feet per second. South Fork Coyote Wash, which has similar basin area and hydraulic characteristics, probably will have concurrent floods of similar magnitudes. The peak flow of the two tributaries probably would combine near the potential sites for the exploratory shaft to produce future flow of water and accompanying debris potentially as large as 5,000 cubic feet per second.

  8. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited)a)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Barbrel, B.; Gauthier, M.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Döppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Falcone, R. W.; Heimann, P.; Zastrau, U.; Hastings, J. B.; Glenzer, S. H.

    2014-11-01

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  9. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    SciTech Connect

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Gauthier, M.; Heimann, P.; Hastings, J. B.; Zastrau, U.; Glenzer, S. H.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Barbrel, B.; Falcone, R. W.

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  10. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited).

    PubMed

    Fletcher, L B; Lee, H J; Barbrel, B; Gauthier, M; Galtier, E; Nagler, B; Döppner, T; LePape, S; Ma, T; Pak, A; Turnbull, D; White, T; Gregori, G; Wei, M; Falcone, R W; Heimann, P; Zastrau, U; Hastings, J B; Glenzer, S H

    2014-11-01

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision. PMID:25430365

  11. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Gauthier, M.; et al

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstratesmore » the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.« less

  12. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited)

    SciTech Connect

    Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Gauthier, M.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Heimann, P.; Hastings, J. B.; Glenzer, S. H.; Barbrel, B.; Falcone, R. W.; Döppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Zastrau, U.

    2014-11-15

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  13. Current and future heat stress in Nicaraguan work places under a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Sheffield, Perry E; Herrera, Juan Gabriel Ruiz; Lemke, Bruno; Kjellstrom, Tord; Romero, Luis E Blanco

    2013-01-01

    While climate change continues to increase ambient temperatures, the resulting heat stress exposure to workers in non-climate controlled settings is not well characterized, particularly in low and middle income countries. This preliminary report describes current heat stress in Nicaraguan work places and estimates occupational heat stress in 2050. From over 400 measurements of heat exposure using wet bulb globe temperature, more than 10% of all measurements exceeded the safety threshold for the combination of light work and rest at the ratio of 25:75. By 2050, that percentage of "over-heated" days is projected to increase to over 15%. These findings support the idea that common working conditions in Nicaragua already represent a threat to the health and safety of the workers and that climate change driven trends could mean either a necessary curbing of economic productivity or an increased threat to worker health and safety. PMID:23411762

  14. On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Suarez, Max

    2013-01-01

    This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

  15. Future Projections from the Effects of Heat Stress on Livestock: for the US and New England Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCabe, E.; Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.; Krishnan, S.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate change will result in variations in heat stress experienced by livestock, which will consequently impact health, well-being, and yield. In this study, we estimate future yield changes for livestock due to heat stress in New England. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that is developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The simulation uses RCP8.5 boundary conditions, and is driven by CCSM4 atmospheric forcing from the CMIP5 archive, that conducts simulations of the past and next century. Heat stress metrics are calculated using the HumanIndexMod in CLM4.5 for the early and late 21st century. For example, the humidity index for comfort and physiology, wet bulb temperature and swamp cooler efficiency. Results indicate that in the New England Region, temperatures will increase by 4 °C and in New Hampshire specifically by 3 °C. Temperature humidity index for comfort and physiology, swamp cooler efficiency and wet bulb are all projected to rise by the end of the century. While it is obvious that these elevations in temperature will have a negative effect on animals inhibiting their performance and output, our analysis also emphasizes the role of changes in humidity in heat stress. We show that heat stress caused by temperature and humidity increases, will decrease overall production yield for dairy and beef cattle, sows, finishing hogs and poultry, as a result of heat stress and other major climatic factors. We estimate and discuss resulting economic losses for the livestock industries and the impact in the United States and New England Region.

  16. Extreme ultraviolet light sources for use in semiconductor lithography—state of the art and future development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stamm, Uwe

    2004-12-01

    This paper gives an overview of the development status and plans of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light sources at XTREME technologies, a joint venture of Lambda Physik AG, Göttingen and JENOPTIK LOS GmbH, Jena, Germany. Results for gas discharge-produced plasma (GDPP) and laser-produced plasma (LPP), the two major technologies in EUV sources, are presented. The GDPP EUV sources use the Z-pinch principle with efficient sliding-discharge pre-ionization. First prototypes of commercial gas discharge sources with an EUV power of 35 W in 2π sr have already been integrated into EUV microsteppers. These sources are equipped with a debris-filter which supports an optics lifetime exceeding 100 million pulses at 1 kHz repetition rate. The same lifetime was achieved for the components of the discharge system itself. The progress in the development of high-power discharge sources based on xenon resulted in an EUV power of 200 W into a 2π sr solid angle, in continuous operation, at 4.5 kHz repetition rate, by implementation of porous-metal cooling technology. The available intermediate focus (IF) power is 22 W taking into account experimentally verified losses in a 1.8 sr source collector module. The usable IF power depends on the etendue of the optical system of the EUV scanner. For the current size of the EUV emitting plasma the etendue acceptance factor may be below 0.5. The currently usable IF power with 1.8 sr collector mirror may therefore be about 10 W. Z-pinch discharge sources with Sn as the emitter have been developed as a more efficient alternative to xenon fuelled sources. Tin sources showed a conversion efficiency (CE) that was double that of xenon. EUV power of 400 W in 2π sr has been generated at only 4.5 kHz repetition rate. The available IF power is 44 W. Estimates evaluating the tin source performance reveal the potential for achieving high-volume manufacturing (HVM) power specification by using existing technology. Because of their small plasma size and the

  17. Risk factors, health effects and behaviour in older people during extreme heat: a survey in South Australia.

    PubMed

    Nitschke, Monika; Hansen, Alana; Bi, Peng; Pisaniello, Dino; Newbury, Jonathan; Kitson, Alison; Tucker, Graeme; Avery, Jodie; Dal Grande, Eleonora

    2013-12-01

    Older people had a high incidence of hospitalisation during the 2009 heat wave in South Australia. We sought to explore resilience, behaviours, health risk factors and health outcomes during recent heat waves for a representative sample of independently living residents. A telephone survey of 499 people aged 65 years and over was conducted, and included both metropolitan and rural residences. A variety of adaptive strategies were reported, with 75% maintaining regular appointments and activities during the heat. However, 74% took medication for chronic disease and 25% assessed their health status to be fair to poor. In a multivariate model, factors associated with heat health outcomes included medication for mental health, heart failure, diabetes or respiratory health, reporting a reduced health status, use of mobility aids and being female. Compared with younger participants, those over 75 had more check-up calls and visits by family, friends and neighbours. However, confidence to call on support was associated with indicators of social isolation. The study indicates that older people are generally resilient, but interventions addressing multi-morbidity and medication interactions and social isolation should be developed. PMID:24300073

  18. Risk Factors, Health Effects and Behaviour in Older People during Extreme Heat: A Survey in South Australia

    PubMed Central

    Nitschke, Monika; Hansen, Alana; Bi, Peng; Pisaniello, Dino; Newbury, Jonathan; Kitson, Alison; Tucker, Graeme; Avery, Jodie; Dal Grande, Eleonora

    2013-01-01

    Older people had a high incidence of hospitalisation during the 2009 heat wave in South Australia. We sought to explore resilience, behaviours, health risk factors and health outcomes during recent heat waves for a representative sample of independently living residents. A telephone survey of 499 people aged 65 years and over was conducted, and included both metropolitan and rural residences. A variety of adaptive strategies were reported, with 75% maintaining regular appointments and activities during the heat. However, 74% took medication for chronic disease and 25% assessed their health status to be fair to poor. In a multivariate model, factors associated with heat health outcomes included medication for mental health, heart failure, diabetes or respiratory health, reporting a reduced health status, use of mobility aids and being female. Compared with younger participants, those over 75 had more check-up calls and visits by family, friends and neighbours. However, confidence to call on support was associated with indicators of social isolation. The study indicates that older people are generally resilient, but interventions addressing multi-morbidity and medication interactions and social isolation should be developed. PMID:24300073

  19. Combined Heat and Power: Effective Energy Solutions for a Sustainable Future

    SciTech Connect

    Shipley, Ms. Anna; Hampson, Anne; Hedman, Mr. Bruce; Garland, Patricia W; Bautista, Paul

    2008-12-01

    Combined Heat and Power (CHP) solutions represent a proven and effective near-term energy option to help the United States enhance energy efficiency, ensure environmental quality, promote economic growth, and foster a robust energy infrastructure. Using CHP today, the United States already avoids more than 1.9 Quadrillion British thermal units (Quads) of fuel consumption and 248 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions annually compared to traditional separate production of electricity and thermal energy. This CO{sub 2} reduction is the equivalent of removing more than 45 million cars from the road. In addition, CHP is one of the few options in the portfolio of energy alternatives that combines environmental effectiveness with economic viability and improved competitiveness. This report describes in detail the four key areas where CHP has proven its effectiveness and holds promise for the future as an: (1) Environmental Solution: Significantly reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through greater energy efficiency; (2) Competitive Business Solution: Increasing efficiency, reducing business costs, and creating green-collar jobs; (3) Local Energy Solution: Deployable throughout the US; and (4) Infrastructure Modernization Solution: Relieving grid congestion and improving energy security. CHP should be one of the first technologies deployed for near-term carbon reductions. The cost-effectiveness and near-term viability of widespread CHP deployment place the technology at the forefront of practical alternative energy solutions such as wind, solar, clean coal, biofuels, and nuclear power. Clear synergies exist between CHP and most other technologies that dominate the energy and environmental policy dialogue in the country today. As the Nation transforms how it produces, transports, and uses the many forms of energy, it must seize the clear opportunity afforded by CHP in terms of climate change, economic competitiveness, energy security, and infrastructure

  20. Understanding future projected changes and historical trends in extreme climate and streamflow events in warm boreal permafrost basins of Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, K. E.; Cherry, J. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in future and historical extreme events may have disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm- permafrost-dominated Interior region of Alaska. This paper presents a study examining extreme hydro-climate events (temperature, precipitation and streamflow) in Interior Alaskan watersheds, focused on results from Fairbanks, Alaska, located within the Chena River basin. Results are presented for an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios, run through to 2100. GCMs, selected for performance over the Alaskan domain, project the largest increases in minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn), compared to maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in the winter and spring at the Fairbanks Airport station. The increases in TNn and TXx are much larger (two to four times) than the across GCM standard deviations, indicating robustness in the projected changes. Statistically significant increases in five-day maximum precipitation are also projected to occur by the 2080s, with the largest increases expected for the summer and fall seasons. Streamflow projections provided by running the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, coupled with the SNOW17 snow model, are analyzed using a generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem and nonparametric trend approach. The Chena River basin exhibits linear nonstationary increases in maximum and minimum annual streamflow projected by the 2080s under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, minimized by the Akaike Information Criteria statistic, corrected for small sample sizes. Changes are indicative of increased flow volumes in the summer and fall, following precipitation changes projected to occur during these seasons. These changes are distinct from trends and GEV analysis performed on the historical streamflow series, which indicate declining flows associated with the loss of snowpack observed as a statistically significant reduction in relative flow volume (-49%, p-value 0.01) during the May

  1. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    PubMed

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. PMID:24909650

  2. Enabling a Better Aft Heat Shield Solution for Future Mars Science Laboratory Class Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McGuire, Mary K.; Covington, Melmoth A.; Goldstein, Howard E.; Arnold, James O.; Beck, Robin

    2013-01-01

    System studies are described that compare masses and estimated manufacturing costs of options for the as-flown Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) aft body Thermal Light Weight Ablator (SLA) 561-V and its thickness was not optimized using the standard TPS Sizer Tool widely used for heat shield design. Use of the TPS sizing tool suggests that optimization of the SLA thickness could reduce the aft heat shield mass by 40 percent. Analysis of the predicted aft-shell aerothermodynamics suggests that the bulk of MSL class entry vehicle heat shields could incorporate Advanced Flexible Reusable Surface Insulation (AFRSI). AFRSI has a wellestablished record of relatively inexpensive manufacturing and flight certification based on its use on the lee side of the Space Shuttle. Runs with the TPS Sizer show that the AFRSI solution would be 60 percent lighter than the as-flown SLA. The issue of Reaction Control System (RCS) heating on the aft shell could be addressed by locally impregnating the AFRSI with silicone to enhance its robustness to short bursts ofheating. Stagnation point arcjet testing has shown that silicone impregnated AFRSI performs well at heat rates of 115 W/cm2 and 0.1 atmospheres for a duration of 40 seconds, far beyond conditions that are expected for MSL class vehicles. The paper concludes with a discussion of manufacturing processes for AFRSI, impregnation approaches and relative cost comparisons to the SLA solution.

  3. Overview of NASA Glenn Research Center Programs in Aero-Heat Transfer and Future Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaugler, Raymond E.

    2002-01-01

    This presentation concentrates on an overview of the NASA Glenn Research Center and the projects that are supporting Turbine Aero-Heat Transfer Research. The principal areas include the Ultra Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Project, the Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) Revolutionary Turbine Accelerator (RTA) Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) project, and the Propulsion & Power Base R&T - Smart Efficient Components (SEC), and Revolutionary Aeropropulsion Concepts (RAC) Projects. In addition, highlights are presented of the turbine aero-heat transfer work currently underway at NASA Glenn, focusing on the use of the Glenn-HT Navier- Stokes code as the vehicle for research in turbulence & transition modeling, grid topology generation, unsteady effects, and conjugate heat transfer.

  4. Phonon-Pump Extreme-Ultraviolet-Photoemission Probe in Graphene: Anomalous Heating of Dirac Carriers by Lattice Deformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gierz, Isabella; Mitrano, Matteo; Bromberger, Hubertus; Cacho, Cephise; Chapman, Richard; Springate, Emma; Link, Stefan; Starke, Ulrich; Sachs, Burkhard; Eckstein, Martin; Wehling, Tim O.; Katsnelson, Mikhail I.; Lichtenstein, Alexander; Cavalleri, Andrea

    2015-03-01

    We modulate the atomic structure of bilayer graphene by driving its lattice at resonance with the in-plane E1 u lattice vibration at 6.3 μ m . Using time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (tr-ARPES) with extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) pulses, we measure the response of the Dirac electrons near the K point. We observe that lattice modulation causes anomalous carrier dynamics, with the Dirac electrons reaching lower peak temperatures and relaxing at faster rate compared to when the excitation is applied away from the phonon resonance or in monolayer samples. Frozen phonon calculations predict dramatic band structure changes when the E1 u vibration is driven, which we use to explain the anomalous dynamics observed in the experiment.

  5. Phonon-pump extreme-ultraviolet-photoemission probe in graphene: anomalous heating of Dirac carriers by lattice deformation.

    PubMed

    Gierz, Isabella; Mitrano, Matteo; Bromberger, Hubertus; Cacho, Cephise; Chapman, Richard; Springate, Emma; Link, Stefan; Starke, Ulrich; Sachs, Burkhard; Eckstein, Martin; Wehling, Tim O; Katsnelson, Mikhail I; Lichtenstein, Alexander; Cavalleri, Andrea

    2015-03-27

    We modulate the atomic structure of bilayer graphene by driving its lattice at resonance with the in-plane E_{1u} lattice vibration at 6.3  μm. Using time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (tr-ARPES) with extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) pulses, we measure the response of the Dirac electrons near the K point. We observe that lattice modulation causes anomalous carrier dynamics, with the Dirac electrons reaching lower peak temperatures and relaxing at faster rate compared to when the excitation is applied away from the phonon resonance or in monolayer samples. Frozen phonon calculations predict dramatic band structure changes when the E_{1u} vibration is driven, which we use to explain the anomalous dynamics observed in the experiment. PMID:25860758

  6. Lookup Tables for Predicting CHF and Film-Boiling Heat Transfer: Past, Present, and Future

    SciTech Connect

    Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K. H.; Guo, Y.; Vasic, A.; El Nakla, M.; Peng, S.W.; Yang, J.; Cheng, S.C.

    2005-10-15

    Lookup tables (LUTs) have been used widely for the prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) and film-boiling heat transfer for water-cooled tubes. LUTs are basically normalized data banks. They eliminate the need to choose between the many different CHF and film-boiling heat transfer prediction methods available.The LUTs have many advantages; e.g., (a) they are simple to use, (b) there is no iteration required, (c) they have a wide range of applications, (d) they may be applied to nonaqueous fluids using fluid-to-fluid modeling relationships, and (e) they are based on a very large database. Concerns associated with the use of LUTs include (a) there are fluctuations in the value of the CHF or film-boiling heat transfer coefficient (HTC) with pressure, mass flux, and quality, (b) there are large variations in the CHF or the film-boiling HTC between the adjacent table entries, and (c) there is a lack or scarcity of data at certain flow conditions.Work on the LUTs is continuing. This will resolve the aforementioned concerns and improve the LUT prediction capability. This work concentrates on better smoothing of the LUT entries, increasing the database, and improving models at conditions where data are sparse or absent.

  7. Characterization of Multiple Heat-Shock Protein Transcripts from Cydia pomonella: Their Response to Extreme Temperature and Insecticide Exposure.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xue-Qing; Zhang, Ya-Lin; Wang, Xiao-Qi; Dong, Hui; Gao, Ping; Jia, Ling-Yi

    2016-06-01

    The economically important fruit pest Cydia pomonella (L.) exhibits a strong adaptability and stress tolerance to environmental stresses. Heat-shock proteins (HSPs) play key roles in insects in coping with environmental stresses. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal expression patterns of HSPs and their response to stresses in C. pomonella. In this study, a thermal treatment-recovery test was performed, and the expression profiles of a novel isolated HSP, named CpHSP40, and six CpHSPs were determined. Third-instar larvae were able to recover from cold shock (0 °C) and heat shock (40 °C). Escherichia coli BL21 (DE3) cells harboring recombinant pET-28a (+)-CpHSP40 plasmid showed significant temperature tolerance. CpHSPs were developmentally and tissue-specifically expressed. The responses of CpHSPs to 0 and 40 °C (with or without recovery) and insecticide exposure were varied. All of these indicated that the expression of HSPs plays a role in the development and in environmental adaptation in C. pomonella. PMID:27159229

  8. Potential Remedies for the High Synchrotron-Radiation-Induced Heat Load for Future Highest-Energy-Proton Circular Colliders.

    PubMed

    Cimino, R; Baglin, V; Schäfers, F

    2015-12-31

    We propose a new method for handling the high synchrotron radiation (SR) induced heat load of future circular hadron colliders (like FCC-hh). FCC-hh are dominated by the production of SR, which causes a significant heat load on the accelerator walls. Removal of such a heat load in the cold part of the machine, as done in the Large Hadron Collider, will require more than 100 MW of electrical power and a major cooling system. We studied a totally different approach, identifying an accelerator beam screen whose illuminated surface is able to forward reflect most of the photons impinging onto it. Such a reflecting beam screen will transport a significant part of this heat load outside the cold dipoles. Then, in room temperature sections, it could be more efficiently dissipated. Here we will analyze the proposed solution and address its full compatibility with all other aspects an accelerator beam screen must fulfill to keep under control beam instabilities as caused by electron cloud formation, impedance, dynamic vacuum issues, etc. If experimentally fully validated, a highly reflecting beam screen surface will provide a viable and solid solution to be eligible as a baseline design in FCC-hh projects to come, rendering them more cost effective and sustainable. PMID:26764998

  9. Potential Remedies for the High Synchrotron-Radiation-Induced Heat Load for Future Highest-Energy-Proton Circular Colliders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cimino, R.; Baglin, V.; Schäfers, F.

    2015-12-01

    We propose a new method for handling the high synchrotron radiation (SR) induced heat load of future circular hadron colliders (like FCC-hh). FCC-hh are dominated by the production of SR, which causes a significant heat load on the accelerator walls. Removal of such a heat load in the cold part of the machine, as done in the Large Hadron Collider, will require more than 100 MW of electrical power and a major cooling system. We studied a totally different approach, identifying an accelerator beam screen whose illuminated surface is able to forward reflect most of the photons impinging onto it. Such a reflecting beam screen will transport a significant part of this heat load outside the cold dipoles. Then, in room temperature sections, it could be more efficiently dissipated. Here we will analyze the proposed solution and address its full compatibility with all other aspects an accelerator beam screen must fulfill to keep under control beam instabilities as caused by electron cloud formation, impedance, dynamic vacuum issues, etc. If experimentally fully validated, a highly reflecting beam screen surface will provide a viable and solid solution to be eligible as a baseline design in FCC-hh projects to come, rendering them more cost effective and sustainable.

  10. Micro-Columnated Loop Heat Pipe: The Future of Electronic Substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhillon, Navdeep Singh

    The modern world is run by semiconductor-based electronic systems. Due to continuous improvements in semiconductor device fabrication, there is a clear trend in the market towards the development of electronic devices and components that not only deliver enhanced computing power, but are also more compact. Thermal management has emerged as the primary challenge in this scenario where heat flux dissipation of electronic chips is increasing exponentially, but conventional cooling solutions such as conduction and convection are no longer feasible. To keep device junction temperatures within the safe operating limit, there is an urgent requirement for ultra-high-conductivity thermal substrates that not only absorb and transport large heat fluxes, but can also provide localized cooling to thermal hotspots. This dissertation describes the design, modeling, and fabrication of a phase change-based, planar, ultra-thin, passive thermal transport system that is inspired by the concept of loop heat pipes and capillary pumped loops. Fabricated on silicon and Pyrex wafers using microfabrication techniques, the micro-columnated loop heat pipe (muCLHP) can be integrated directly with densely packed or multiply-stacked electronic substrates, to provide localized high-heat-flux thermal management. The muCLHP employs a dual-scale coherent porous silicon(CPS)-based micro-columnated wicking structure, where the primary CPS wick provides large capillary forces for fluid transport, while a secondary surface-wick maximizes the rate of thin-film evaporation. To overcome the wick thickness limitation encountered in conventional loop heat pipes, strategies based on MEMS surface micromachining techniques were developed to reduce parasitic heat flow from the evaporator to the compensation chamber of the device. Finite element analysis was used to confirm this reduction in a planar evaporator design, thus enabling the generation of a large motive temperature head for continuous device operation

  11. Investigation of the impact of extreme air temperature on river water temperature: case study of the heat episode 2013.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weihs, Philipp; Trimmel, Heidelinde; Goler, Robert; Formayer, Herbert; Holzapfel, Gerda; Rauch, Hans Peter

    2014-05-01

    Water stream temperature is a relevant factor for water quality since it is an important driver of water oxygen content and in turn also reduces or increases stress on the aquatic fauna. The water temperature of streams is determined by the source and inflow water temperature, by the energy balance at the stream surface and by the hydrological regime of the stream. Main factors driving the energy balance of streams are radiation balance and air temperature which influences the sensitive and latent heat flux. The present study investigates the impact of the heat episode of summer 2013 on water temperature of two lowland rivers in south eastern Austria. Within the scope of the project BIO_CLIC routine measurements of water temperature at 33 locations alongside the rivers Pinka and Lafnitz have been performed since spring 2012. In addition meteorological measurements of global shortwave and longwave radiation, air temperature, wind and air humidity have been carried out during this time. For the same time period, data of discharge and water levels of both rivers were provided by the public hydrological office. The heat episode of summer 2013 started, according to the Kysely- definition, on 18 July and lasted until 14 August. The highest air temperature ever recorded in Austria was reported on 8 August at 40.5°C. In Güssing, which is located within the project area, 40.0 °C were recorded. In the lower reaches of the river Pinka, at the station Burg the monthly mean water temperature of August 2013 was with more than 22°C, 1°C higher than the mean water temperature of the same period of the previous years. At the same station, the maximum water temperature of 27.1°C was recorded on 29 July, 9 days prior to the air temperature record. Analysis shows that at the downstream stations the main driving parameter is solar radiation whereas at the upstream stations a better correlation between air temperature and water temperature is obtained. Using the extensive data set

  12. Electron-Heated Target Temperature Measurements in Petawatt Laser Experiments Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging and Spectroscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, T; Beg, F; Macphee, A; Chung, H; Key, M; Mackinnon, A; Patel, P; Hatchett, S; Akli, K; Stephens, R; Chen, C; Freeman, R; Link, A; Offermann, D; Ovchinnikov, V; VanWoerkom, L; Zhang, B

    2008-05-02

    Three independent methods (XUV spectroscopy, imaging at 68 eV and 256 eV) have been used to measure planar target rear surface plasma temperature due to heating by hot electrons. The hot electrons are produced by ultra-intense laser plasma interactions using the 150 J, 0.5 ps Titan laser. Soft x-ray spectroscopy in the 50-400 eV region and imaging at the 68 eV and 256 eV photon energies were used to determine the rear surface temperature of planar CD targets. Temperatures were found to be in the 60-150 eV range, with good agreement between the three diagnostics.

  13. A Review of the Experimental and Modeling Development of a Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger for Future Exploration Support Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cognata, Thomas; Leimkuehler, Thomas; Ramaswamy, Balasubramaniam; Nayagam, Vedha; Hasan, Mohammad; Stephan, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Water affords manifold benefits for human space exploration. Its properties make it useful for the storage of thermal energy as a Phase Change Material (PCM) in thermal control systems, in radiation shielding against Solar Particle Events (SPE) for the protection of crew members, and it is indisputably necessary for human life support. This paper envisions a single application for water which addresses these benefits for future exploration support vehicles and it describes recent experimental and modeling work that has been performed in order to arrive at a description of the thermal behavior of such a system. Experimental units have been developed and tested which permit the evaluation of the many parameters of design for such a system with emphasis on the latent energy content, temperature rise, mass, and interstitial material geometry. The experimental results are used to develop a robust and well correlated model which is intended to guide future design efforts toward the multi-purposed water PCM heat exchanger envisioned.

  14. Liquid Fuel from Heat-Loving Microorganisms: H2-Dependent Conversion of CO2 to Liquid Electrofuels by Extremely Thermophilic Archaea

    SciTech Connect

    2010-07-01

    Electrofuels Project: NC State is working with the University of Georgia to create Electrofuels from primitive organisms called extremophiles that evolved before photosynthetic organisms and live in extreme, hot water environments with temperatures ranging from 167-212 degrees Fahrenheit The team is genetically engineering these microorganisms so they can use hydrogen to turn carbon dioxide directly into alcohol-based fuels. High temperatures are required to distill the biofuels from the water where the organisms live, but the heat-tolerant organisms will continue to thrive even as the biofuels are being distilled—making the fuel-production process more efficient. The microorganisms don’t require light, so they can be grown anywhere—inside a dark reactor or even in an underground facility.

  15. Cool sound: the future of refrigeration? Thermodynamic and heat transfer issues in thermoacoustic refrigeration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, C.; Travnicek, Z.

    2006-04-01

    During the past two decades the thermoacoustic refrigeration and prime mover cycles gained importance in a variety of refrigeration applications. Acoustic work, sound, can be used to generate temperature differences that allow the transport of heat from a low temperature reservoir to an ambient at higher temperature, thus forming a thermoacoustic refrigeration system. The thermoacoustic energy pumping cycle can also be reversed: temperature difference imposed along the stack plates can lead to sound generation. In this situation the thermoacoustic system operates as a prime mover. Sound generated by means of this thermoacoustic energy conversion process can be utilized to drive different types of refrigeration devices that require oscillatory flow for their operation, such as thermoacoustic refrigerators, pulse tubes and Stirling engines. In order for a thermoacoustic refrigeration or prime mover system as well as a thermoacoustic prime mover driving a non-thermoacoustic refrigeration system to be competitive on the current market, it has to be optimized in order to improve its overall performance. Optimization can involve improving the performance of the entire system as well as its components. The paper addresses some of the thermodynamic and heat transfer issues relevant in improving the performance of the thermoacoustic system, such as optimization for maximum COP, maximum cooling load and the role of the heat exchangers. Results obtained using the two optimization criteria are contrasted in the paper to illustrate the complexity of the optimization process.

  16. Resistance of halobacterial isolates from Permian rock salt to physico-chemical extremes, including heat and a simulated Martian atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leuko, S.; Weidler, G.; Radax, C.; Stan-Lotter, H.

    2003-04-01

    Extremely halophilic archaebacteria (halobacteria) are found today in hypersaline surface waters, such as the brines in solar salterns, or the Dead Sea. However, from Alpine rock salt of Permo-Triassic age several species of halobacteria were isolated during the last years (1, 2). Halobacteria are not known to produce spores or dormant forms; thus it remains enigmatic how they survived in the salt sediments. Extraterrestrial halite has been detected in meteorites from Mars and from the asteroids; in addition, the Jovian moon Europa is thought to contain a salty ocean. Therefore halobacteria would be useful model organisms when considering the search for extraterrestrial life. We are developing experimental protocols to evaluate the effects of physico-chemical stress factors on halobacteria, in particular present-day Martian conditions. But the effect of higher temperatures is also of interest, since Mars may have been warmer in the past, and the Alpine salt sediments are known to have experienced local temperature peaks. Cells of Halococcus dombrowskii (2) and, for comparison, of Halobacterium sp. NRC-1 were grown in complex medium, containing up to 4 M NaCl (2). Aliquots of cultures were kept at minus 70oC for several days, or freeze-dried in a lyophilizer, or incubated at temperatures of 50 to 80oC for 24 hours, respectively. In addition, exposure experiments of halobacterial cells in a liquid nitrogen cooled Martian simulation chamber were begun. Survival of cells was evaluated by determining colony-forming units and by examination of cellular morphology by fluorescence microscopy, following staining with the LIVE-DEAD kit. Results indicated that the LIVE-DEAD kit can be successfully used in the presence of 4 M NaCl, although it was developed for tests at low ionic strength. Data will be presented which show that Hc. dombrowskii survived deep freezing, temperatures of up to 80 oC and Martian atmospheric conditions generally better than Halobacterium sp. NRC-1

  17. Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  18. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  19. Mapping occupational heat exposure and effects in South-East Asia: ongoing time trends 1980-2011 and future estimates to 2050.

    PubMed

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias

    2013-01-01

    A feature of climate impacts on occupational health and safety are physiological limits to carrying out physical work at high heat exposure. Heat stress reduces a workers work capacity, leading to lower hourly labour productivity and economic output. We used existing weather station data and climate modeling grid cell data to describe heat conditions (calculated as Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, WBGT) in South-East Asia. During the hottest month in this region (March) afternoon WBGT levels are already high enough to cause major loss of hourly work capacity and by 2050 the situation will be extreme for many outdoor jobs. PMID:23411757

  20. Perspectives on improvement of reproduction in cattle during heat stress in a future Japan.

    PubMed

    Kadokawa, Hiroya; Sakatani, Miki; Hansen, Peter J

    2012-06-01

    Heat stress (HS) causes hyperthermia, and at its most severe form, can lead to death. More commonly, HS reduces feed intake, milk yield, growth rate and reproductive function in many mammals and birds, including the important cattle breeds in Japan. Rectal temperatures greater than 39.0°C and respiration rates greater than 60/min indicate cows are undergoing HS sufficient to affect milk yield and fertility. HS compromises oocyte quality and embryonic development, reduces expression of estrus and changes secretion of several reproductive hormones. One of the most effective ways to reduce the magnitude of HS is embryo transfer, which bypasses the inhibitory effects of HS on the oocyte and early embryo. It may also be possible to select for genetic resistance to HS. Cooling can also improve reproductive performance in cows and heifers, and probably, the most effective cooling systems currently in use are those that couple evaporative cooling with tunnel ventilation or cross ventilation. Its effect on improving reproductive performance in Japan remains to be evaluated. PMID:22694326

  1. Effects of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies on Current and Future Meteorology of Atlanta, Georgia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosson, W. L.; Lapenta, W. M.; Griggs, L.; Kenna, G.; Johnson, H.; Dembek, S.

    2004-05-01

    The characterization of land use/land cover is an integral component of an ongoing air quality modeling project focused on evaluating strategies for reducing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and improving air quality in Atlanta, Georgia. The `UHI mitigation strategies' applied in this project involve `Cool Communities' principles of high albedo pavement and roofing as well as increased urban tree canopy. These strategies have been developed based on input from local stakeholders and represent conditions that are attainable assuming broad-based support from local government and the community. In order to evaluate the impact of these strategies on urban meteorology (principally near-surface air temperature) and ultimately on air quality, mesoscale model simulations have been performed for the Atlanta region based on land use for 1999 and projected to 2030 using the Spatial Growth Model assuming `Business as Usual' development. Significant land use change associated with continuing urban sprawl is expected from now until 2030. Model simulations based on identical synoptic forcing were performed to evaluate the effects of local land use change on local and regional meteorology. For the 2030 case, results from `Business as Usual' and `UHI mitigation strategies' simulations will be compared. The impacts of higher urban albedo and increased tree cover will be examined separately and in combination.

  2. Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity

    PubMed Central

    Macpherson, Cheryl C.; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen. PMID:26180551

  3. Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007

    PubMed Central

    Gronlund, Carina J.; Berrocal, Veronica J.; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Conlon, Kathryn C.; O'Neill, Marie S.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. Methods In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent “non-green space” (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). Results In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI = 1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. Conclusions Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples’ heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk. PMID:25460667

  4. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M. D.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Zscheischler, J.

    2013-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Ongoing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that rare climate extremes can lead to a decrease in ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate the expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget. In addition to direct impact on the carbon fluxes of photosynthesis and respiration via extreme temperature and (or) drought, effects of extreme events may also lead to lagged responses, such as wildfires triggered by heat waves and droughts, or pest and pathogen outbreaks following wind-throw caused by heavy storms, reduced plant health due to drought stress or due to less frequent cold extremes in presently cold regions. One extreme event can potentially override accumulated previous carbon sinks, as shown by the Western European 2003 heat wave.. Extreme events have the potential to affect the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance through a single factor, or as a combination of factors. Climate extremes can cause carbon losses from accumulated stocks, as well as long-lasting impacts on (e.g. lagged effects) on plant growth and mortality, extending beyond the duration of the extreme event itself. The sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon balance to climate change and extreme events varies according to the type of extreme, the climatic region, the land cover, and the land management. Extreme event impacts are very relevant in forests due to the importance of lagged and memory effects on tree growth and mortality, the longevity of tree species, the large forest carbon stocks and their vulnerability, as well as the

  5. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-01-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

  6. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-08-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

  7. Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in

  8. Coping with heat in the city: what can we learn from a survey immediately after a hot weather period for future heat waves?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Schipper, Hans; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2015-04-01

    Karlsruhe is one of the hottest cities in Germany with a temperature record of 40.2°C in August 2003. In 2013, two hot weather periods with continuous heat warnings by the German Weather Service for 7 and 8 days occurred during the second half of July and first 10 days of August 2013, and in early August the temperatures in Karlsruhe almost reached again the record of 40.2°C. To understand how citizens experienced the heat and what strategies they used to cope with the heat, we conducted a questionnaire survey on subjective heat stress and coping strategies immediately after the hot weather period. Based on a holistic approach the questionnaire included questions on heat stress experience in different contexts of daily life, health impacts of the heat, coping measures, housing conditions, urban environment, living conditions, and socio-demographic characteristics. The responses of the 323 survey participants living and working in Karlsruhe show that they on average experienced the heat as rather stressful event, whereby the heat stress experienced at home was significant lower than heat stress experienced at work or in general. Regression analyses show that, among the factors included in the questionnaire, the health impairments suffered during the heat, the control belief and the coping measures implemented mainly determine heat stress experienced in general and at work. For the subjective heat stress at home, factors of the built urban environment such as heat loading of district, living in the attic or the ground floor, and heat protection elements of the inhabited building also played a role. At the same time, the way the respondents used different coping strategies in context of their daily activities and routines during heat suggests lessons to learn from this event how individual response to heat differs from responses to other types of natural hazards.

  9. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  10. Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators: present-day biases and future spreads in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.; Ducharne, A.; Sultan, B.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

    2015-08-01

    The increased exposure of human populations to heat stress is one of the likely consequences of global warming, and it has detrimental effects on health and labor capacity. Here, we consider the evolution of heat stress under climate change using 21 general circulation models (GCMs). Three heat stress indicators, based on both temperature and humidity conditions, are used to investigate present-day model biases and spreads in future climate projections. Present day estimates of heat stress indicators from observational data shows that humid tropical areas tend to experience more frequent heat stress than other regions do, with a total frequency of heat stress 250-300 d yr-1. The most severe heat stress is found in the Sahel and south India. Present-day GCM simulations tend to underestimate heat stress over the tropics due to dry and cold model biases. The model based estimates are in better agreement with observation in mid to high latitudes, but this is due to compensating errors in humidity and temperature. The severity of heat stress is projected to increase by the end of the century under climate change scenario RCP8.5, reaching unprecedented levels in some regions compared with observations. An analysis of the different factors contributing to the total spread of projected heat stress shows that spread is primarily driven by the choice of GCMs rather than the choice of indicators, even when the simulated indicators are bias-corrected. This supports the utility of the multi-model ensemble approach to assess the impacts of climate change on heat stress.

  11. USING ADVANCED STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES TO IDENTIFY THE DRIVERS AND OCCURRENCE OF HISTORICAL AND FUTURE EXTREME AIR QUALITY EVENTS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This proposed project will result in fundamentally new insights into the connections between extreme weather and air quality. This will include probabilistic relationships between pollutants (PM2.5 and O3) and important meteorological drivers regionally within the United St...

  12. Charge exchange recombination spectroscopy measurements in the extreme ultraviolet region of central carbon concentrations during high power neutral beam heating in TFTR (Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor)

    SciTech Connect

    Stratton, B.C.; Fonck, R.J.; Ramsey, A.T.; Synakowski, E.J.; Grek, B.; Hill, K.W.; Johnson, D.W.; Mansfield, D.K.; Park, H.; Taylor, G.; Valanju, P.M. . Plasma Physics Lab.; Texas Univ., Austin, TX . Fusion Research Center)

    1989-09-01

    The carbon concentration in the central region of TFTR discharges with high power neutral beam heating has been measured by charge-extracted recombination spectroscopy (CXRS) of the C{sup +5} n = 3--4 transition in the extreme ultraviolet region. The carbon concentrations were deduced from absolute measurements of the line brightness using a calculation of the beam attenuation and the appropriate cascade-corrected line excitation rates. As a result of the high ion temperatures in most of the discharges, the contribution of beam halo neutrals to the line brightness was significant and therefore had to be included in the modeling of the data. Carbon concentrations have been measured in discharges with I{sub p} = 1.0-1.6 MA and beam power in the range of 2.6-30 MW, including a number of supershots. The results are in good agreement with carbon concentrations deduced from the visible bremsstrahlung Z{sub eff} and metallic impurity concentrations measured by x-ray pulse-height analysis, demonstrating the reliability of the atomic rates used in the beam attenuation and line excitation calculations. Carbon is the dominant impurity species in these discharges; the oxygen concentration measured via CXRS in a high beam power case was 0.0006 of n{sub e}, compard to 0.04 for carbon. Trends with I{sub p} and beam power in the carbon concentration and the inferred deuteron concentration are presented. The carbon concentration is independent of I{sub p} and decreases from 0.13 at 2.6 MW beam power to 0.04 at 30 MW, while the deuteron concentration increases from 0.25 to 0.75 over the same range of beam power. These changes are primarily the result of beam particle fueling, as the carbon density did not vary significantly with beam power. The time evolutions of the carbon and deuteron concentrations during two high power beam pulses, one which exhibited a carbon bloom and one which did not, are compared. 30 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. A preliminary design and analysis of an advanced heat-rejection system for an extreme altitude advanced variable cycle diesel engine installed in a high-altitude advanced research platform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, Richard P.

    1992-01-01

    Satellite surveillance in such areas as the Antarctic indicates that from time to time concentration of ozone grows and shrinks. An effort to obtain useful atmospheric data for determining the causes of ozone depletion would require a flight capable of reaching altitudes of at least 100,000 ft and flying subsonically during the sampling portion of the mission. A study of a heat rejection system for an advanced variable cycle diesel (AVCD) engine was conducted. The engine was installed in an extreme altitude, high altitude advanced research platform. Results indicate that the waste heat from an AVCD engine propulsion system can be rejected at the maximum cruise altitude of 120,000 ft. Fifteen performance points, reflecting the behavior of the engine as the vehicle proceeded through the mission, were used to characterize the heat exchanger operation. That portion of the study is described in a appendix titled, 'A Detailed Study of the Heat Rejection System for an Extreme Altitude Atmospheric Sampling Aircraft,' by a consultant, Mr. James Bourne, Lytron, Incorporated.

  14. Projections of Climate Extremes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M. D.; Tebaldi, C.; Snyder, C.; Schneider, S. H.

    2008-12-01

    In the next few decades, it is likely that California must face the challenge of coping with increased impacts from extreme events such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. Such events can cause significant damages, and are responsible for a large fraction of near-term climate-related impacts every year. Some extreme events have already very likely changed in frequency and intensity over the past several decades, and these changes are expected to continue with relatively small changes in average conditions. We synthesize existing research to characterize current understanding of the direct impacts of extreme events across sectors, as well as the interactions between sectors as they are affected by extreme events. We also produce new projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the future across climate models, emissions scenarios, and downscaling methods for producing regional climate information, for each county in California. We evaluate historical and projected changes for a suite of temperature and precipitation-based climate indicators, and we conduct a return level analysis to investigate projected changes in extreme temperatures. Finally, we include an analysis of the future likelihood of events similar in magnitude to specific historical events, such as the July 2006 heat wave. Consistent with other studies, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperature extremes in many areas, with the magnitude of change dependent on the magnitude of projected emissions and overall temperature increase. For example, in many regions of California, at least a ten-fold increase in frequency is projected for extreme temperatures currently estimated to occur once every 100 years, even under a moderate emissions scenario (SRES B1). Under a higher emissions scenario (SRES A2), these temperatures are projected to occur close to annually in most regions. Also consistent with other studies

  15. Heat exposure, cardiovascular stress and work productivity in rice harvesters in India: implications for a climate change future.

    PubMed

    Sahu, Subhashis; Sett, Moumita; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Excessive workplace heat exposures create well-known risks of heat stroke, and it limits the workers' capacity to sustain physical activity. There is very limited evidence available on how these effects reduce work productivity, while the quantitative relationship between heat and work productivity is an essential basis for climate change impact assessments. We measured hourly heat exposure in rice fields in West Bengal and recorded perceived health problems via interviews of 124 rice harvesters. In a sub-group (n = 48) heart rate was recorded every minute in a standard work situation. Work productivity was recorded as hourly rice bundle collection output. The hourly heat levels (WBGT = Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) were 26-32°C (at air temperatures of 30-38°C), exceeding international standards. Most workers reported exhaustion and pain during work on hot days. Heart rate recovered quickly at low heat, but more slowly at high heat, indicating cardiovascular strain. The hourly number of rice bundles collected was significantly reduced at WBGT>26°C (approximately 5% per°C of increased WBGT). We conclude that high heat exposure in agriculture caused heat strain and reduced work productivity. This reduction will be exacerbated by climate change and may undermine the local economy. PMID:23685851

  16. It's Not Just the Heat, It's the Humidity: Downscaled Wet-Bulb Temperature Projections and Implication for Future Summer Experiences from the American Climate Prospectus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, D.; Kopp, R. E., III

    2014-12-01

    The health impacts of extreme heat are significantly aggravated when combined with high humidity [1]. Wet-bulb temperature (TwT_w), measured by wrapping a thermometer in a wetted cloth and fully ventilating it, provides a physical metric of the combined effect of both heat and humidity. TwT_w in excess of 30∘^circC is extremely dangerous and has been observed in the US only during the peak of the 1995 Midwest heat wave. Historically unprecedented TwT_w in excess of 33∘^circC represents an extreme threat to human health, with heat stroke likely for fit individuals after less than one hour of shaded activity [2,3]. We present an empirical method for generating downscaled probability distributions of daily maximum TwT_w conditional on dry-bulb temperature. The approach is based upon the statistical relationship between these two parameters, as estimated from reanalysis data. Using statistically downscaled temperature projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5, 4.5 and 2.6, we project changes in TwT_w for the next two centuries. We find that dangerously humid days (TwT_w > 27∘^circC) will become increasingly common in the eastern U.S. under RCP 8.5, with the expected number of days per summer surpassing those of Louisiana today in Chicago in 25 years, Washington, D.C. in 30 years, New York City in 50 years and Portland in 60 years. By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, one extraordinarily dangerous (TwT_w > 33∘^circC) day per year is expected in counties currently home to about one-third of the U.S. population. Mitigation can significantly the expected number of extreme wet-bulb temperature days, with only one-eighth of the U.S. population in counties with a 1-in-10 chance per year of an extraordinarily dangerous day by the end of the century under RCP 4.5. References: [1] Liang et al. (2011), Building and Environment 46: 2472-2479, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.06.013. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www

  17. Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme climatic events, such as intense heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, can dramatically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and more extreme events are projected with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of these events for biological invasions, which themselves...

  18. Electronics for Extreme Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patel, J. U.; Cressler, J.; Li, Y.; Niu, G.

    2001-01-01

    Most of the NASA missions involve extreme environments comprising radiation and low or high temperatures. Current practice of providing friendly ambient operating environment to electronics costs considerable power and mass (for shielding). Immediate missions such as the Europa orbiter and lander and Mars landers require the electronics to perform reliably in extreme conditions during the most critical part of the mission. Some other missions planned in the future also involve substantial surface activity in terms of measurements, sample collection, penetration through ice and crust and the analysis of samples. Thus it is extremely critical to develop electronics that could reliably operate under extreme space environments. Silicon On Insulator (SOI) technology is an extremely attractive candidate for NASA's future low power and high speed electronic systems because it offers increased transconductance, decreased sub-threshold slope, reduced short channel effects, elimination of kink effect, enhanced low field mobility, and immunity from radiation induced latch-up. A common belief that semiconductor devices function better at low temperatures is generally true for bulk devices but it does not hold true for deep sub-micron SOI CMOS devices with microscopic device features of 0.25 micrometers and smaller. Various temperature sensitive device parameters and device characteristics have recently been reported in the literature. Behavior of state of the art technology devices under such conditions needs to be evaluated in order to determine possible modifications in the device design for better performance and survivability under extreme environments. Here, we present a unique approach of developing electronics for extreme environments to benefit future NASA missions as described above. This will also benefit other long transit/life time missions such as the solar sail and planetary outposts in which electronics is out open in the unshielded space at the ambient space

  19. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  20. A review of the progression and future implications of brain-computer interface therapies for restoration of distal upper extremity motor function after stroke.

    PubMed

    Remsik, Alexander; Young, Brittany; Vermilyea, Rebecca; Kiekhoefer, Laura; Abrams, Jessica; Evander Elmore, Samantha; Schultz, Paige; Nair, Veena; Edwards, Dorothy; Williams, Justin; Prabhakaran, Vivek

    2016-05-01

    Stroke is a leading cause of acquired disability resulting in distal upper extremity functional motor impairment. Stroke mortality rates continue to decline with advances in healthcare and medical technology. This has led to an increased demand for advanced, personalized rehabilitation. Survivors often experience some level of spontaneous recovery shortly after their stroke event, yet reach a functional plateau after which there is exiguous motor recovery. Nevertheless, studies have demonstrated the potential for recovery beyond this plateau. Non-traditional neurorehabilitation techniques, such as those incorporating the brain-computer interface (BCI), are being investigated for rehabilitation. BCIs may offer a gateway to the brain's plasticity and revolutionize how humans interact with the world. Non-invasive BCIs work by closing the proprioceptive feedback loop with real-time, multi-sensory feedback allowing for volitional modulation of brain signals to assist hand function. BCI technology potentially promotes neuroplasticity and Hebbian-based motor recovery by rewarding cortical activity associated with sensory-motor rhythms through use with a variety of self-guided and assistive modalities. PMID:27112213

  1. The Influence of Weather Extremes on Historical Crop Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramankutty, N.; Lesk, C.; Rowhani, P.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is estimated to have already affected crop production adversely. The major way in which climate influences crop production is through extreme weather events such as droughts and frosts. Numerous studies have examined the influence of historical and potential future climate means on crop production. However few have quantified the influence of extreme weather events. We used a statistical approach, "superposed epoch analysis" or compositing, to estimate the relationship between historical weather-related disasters to crop production from 1961-2007. We obtained historical data on floods, droughts, extreme heat, and extreme cold events from the Emergency Events Database, EM-DAT. We related these to historical national-level harvested area, yield, and production statistics for cereal crops from the FAOSTAT database. We found that droughts and extreme heat events have had a substantial influence on cereal crops, on average reducing crop production by 8% and 5% respectively, while cold waves and extreme cold events exhibit no statistically discernible influence. We further find that the influence of droughts is through a combination of reduced harvested area and yields, while extreme heat seems to have mainly affected yields. The underlying reasons for these different crop responses are unknown, as the statistical approach only estimates the revealed relationships and does not explore causes. Nevertheless these findings raise new questions on why certain weather events seem to have had substantial production impacts while others have not. We suggest that greater attention should be paid to studying the influence of actual weather events on crops, rather than the influence of mean climate alone.

  2. Extreme Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colvin, Jeff; Larsen, Jon

    2013-11-01

    Acknowledgements; 1. Extreme environments: what, where, how; 2. Properties of dense and classical plasmas; 3. Laser energy absorption in matter; 4. Hydrodynamic motion; 5. Shocks; 6. Equation of state; 7. Ionization; 8. Thermal energy transport; 9. Radiation energy transport; 10. Magnetohydrodynamics; 11. Considerations for constructing radiation-hydrodynamics computer codes; 12. Numerical simulations; Appendix: units and constants, glossary of symbols; References; Bibliography; Index.

  3. Ocean-Atmosphere Heat Exchange: Limitations of Currently Available Datasets and Potential for Future Progress (Solicited Talk)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Josey, Simon

    2016-04-01

    The flux of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere is a key element of the global climate system, central to variations in the ocean heat budget and variations in surface temperature. Factors determining the heat exchange will be discussed using models and observations with an emphasis on the period 1990-2015. This period include changes associated with the potential warming hiatus and more recently the major El Nino event that developed in 2015. The ability of leading datasets to reliably estimate surface flux changes is limited by a number of factors and these will be discussed in the context of variations in other components of the climate system. Progress towards obtaining more reliable climatological estimates of the heat exchange will also be considered with reference to recent developments using residual techniques and ocean reanalyses in addition to atmospheric reanalysis, remote sensing and ship based datasets. In addition, use of surface meteorological fields to generate ocean model forcing will be examined together with recent developments using high resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Finally, the potential for significant advances in regions of major uncertainty using the growing network of surface flux buoys will be discussed with a focus on two moorings now in place in the Southern Ocean.

  4. Beyond extreme temperatures: soil water supply and yield variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, D.; Lobell, D. B.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme weather events have profound consequences for both the mean and interannual variability of agricultural production, but while the role of extreme heat has been convincingly demonstrated, soil water supply has received less attention. In particular, there is debate over the extent to which damages attributed to extreme heat are confounded with drought conditions. In a pair of studies, we examine the effect of extreme moisture conditions, both wet and dry, on maize and soybean yields in the U.S. We find significant effects of waterlogging during the planting season, when crops are most vulnerable to excess moisture, as well as evidence for a strong interaction between high temperatures and low moisture during during the critical stages of the summer growing season. Using both precipitation and model-derived soil moisture data, our results suggest that considering temperature and moisture independently will underestimate yield damages during hot, dry conditions. Many warming scenarios project increases in both extreme summer temperatures and soil dryness, and considering these effects jointly can be important in estimating future yield variability.

  5. Simultaneous heat and mass transfer in a horizontal tube absorber: Numerical tools for present and future absorber designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wassenaar, Reinder Hette

    1994-11-01

    Absorption cycles like the absorption heat pump or the absorption heat transformer can contribute to savings on one of the earth's resources, energy. Because of the high initial expenses, application of an conventional absorption apparatus is only economical in the MW range at today's prices. In this project numerical tools were developed for the design of heat and mass exchangers with a better price-performance ratio, that open a wider field of application for absorption cycles. The tools are mathematical formulations of the conservation of energy and mass for absorption in a falling film flow along a cooled wall. The resulting set of partial differential equations with appropriate boundary conditions is made dimensionless to make them applicable to any mixture or geometry and to summarize the model parameters in a few dimensionless groups. The numerical tools developed give, in contrast to the existing finite difference descriptions, accurate outcomes at very low computational costs and apply also on a flow field of arbitrary geometry.

  6. Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

    2016-04-01

    We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

  7. Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan

    2006-04-01

    The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis or cyclones, is often based on short-term historical records that may not reflect the full range or magnitude of events possible. As human populations grow, especially in hazard-prone areas, methods for accurately assessing natural hazard risks are becoming increasingly important. In Extreme Events Jonathan Nott describes the many methods used to reconstruct such hazards from natural long-term records. He demonstrates how long-term (multi-century to millennial) records are essential in gaining a realistic understanding of the variability of natural hazards, and how short-term historical records can often misrepresent the likely risks associated with natural hazards. This book will form a useful resource for students taking courses covering natural hazards and risk assessment. It will also be valuable for urban planners, policy makers and non-specialists as a guide to understanding and reconstructing long-term records of natural hazards. Explains mechanisms that cause extreme events and discusses their prehistoric records Describes how to reconstruct long-term records of natural hazards in order to make accurate risk assessments Demonstrates that natural hazards can follow cycles over time and do not occur randomly

  8. Perceptions of Workplace Heat Exposure and Controls among Occupational Hygienists and Relevant Specialists in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Pisaniello, Dino; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    With warmer weather projections, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers’ health and safety. Occupational hygienists are the specialist group conducting measurements and providing advice on heat stress management to industry. In order to provide insights into hygienists perceptions on workplace heat exposure, current and future preparedness for extreme heat, and barriers to possible heat adaptation strategies, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted during a national conference of the Australian Institute of Occupational Hygienists. Nearly 90% of the 180 respondents were at least moderately concerned about extreme heat and 19% were dissatisfied with current heat stress prevention measures. Barriers recognized by the participants were lack of awareness (68%), insufficient training (56%), unsatisfactory management commitment (52%), and low compliance with prevention policies (40%). The findings suggest a need to refine occupational heat management and prevention strategies. PMID:26287608

  9. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  10. Metagenomics of extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Cowan, D A; Ramond, J-B; Makhalanyane, T P; De Maayer, P

    2015-06-01

    Whether they are exposed to extremes of heat or cold, or buried deep beneath the Earth's surface, microorganisms have an uncanny ability to survive under these conditions. This ability to survive has fascinated scientists for nearly a century, but the recent development of metagenomics and 'omics' tools has allowed us to make huge leaps in understanding the remarkable complexity and versatility of extremophile communities. Here, in the context of the recently developed metagenomic tools, we discuss recent research on the community composition, adaptive strategies and biological functions of extremophiles. PMID:26048196

  11. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  12. Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

    2006-12-01

    Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

  13. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events.

    PubMed

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-01-01

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like. PMID:26114441

  14. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-01-01

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like. PMID:26114441

  15. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-06-01

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like.

  16. Upper Extremity Regional Anesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Neal, Joseph M.; Gerancher, J.C.; Hebl, James R.; Ilfeld, Brian M.; McCartney, Colin J.L.; Franco, Carlo D.; Hogan, Quinn H.

    2009-01-01

    Brachial plexus blockade is the cornerstone of the peripheral nerve regional anesthesia practice of most anesthesiologists. As part of the American Society of Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine’s commitment to providing intensive evidence-based education related to regional anesthesia and analgesia, this article is a complete update of our 2002 comprehensive review of upper extremity anesthesia. The text of the review focuses on (1) pertinent anatomy, (2) approaches to the brachial plexus and techniques that optimize block quality, (4) local anesthetic and adjuvant pharmacology, (5) complications, (6) perioperative issues, and (6) challenges for future research. PMID:19282714

  17. Heats of Formation for CrO, CrO2, and CrO3: An Extreme Challenge for Black-Box Composite Procedures.

    PubMed

    Chan, Bun; Karton, Amir; Raghavachari, Krishnan; Radom, Leo

    2012-09-11

    In the present study, we use composite methods, denoted CM(5)Λ and CM5, with post-CCSD(T) terms up to CCSDTQ(5)Λ and CCSDTQ5, respectively, to evaluate the atomization energies for CrO, CrO2, and CrO3. The heats of formation (ΔHf,298) based on our best estimated atomization energies are 198.3 ± 5 kJ mol(-1) (CrO), -81.3 ± 5 kJ mol(-1) (CrO2), and -286.8 ± 20 kJ mol(-1) (CrO3). Standard G4-type composite methods yield atomization energies that are adequate for CrO, less good for CrO2, and least good for CrO3. CrO3 is highly multireference in character, and therefore, a "black box" approach of using a single-reference RHF wave function is inadequate, even for "high-level" G4-type methods. We find that, for CrO3, there is a very large difference in the G4 atomization energies depending on whether an RHF or a UHF reference is used, which is mainly associated with large differences in the MP4 components. In general, we propose that a large R-versus-U difference is likely to be an indication of potential problems in the theoretical treatment. Going beyond G4 to a more rigorous UCCSD(T)-based composite scheme [termed U-CM(3:[DZ,TZ]) in the present study], we again find a large difference (but significantly smaller than that for G4) between the CrO3 atomization energies based on RHF or UHF references. Intriguingly, the use of Brueckner orbitals as reference orbitals in all components, as in the corresponding Brueckner Doubles (BD) procedure [B-CM(3:[DZ,TZ])], produces results for CrO3 that are independent of whether RHF or UHF orbitals are used as the starting point. PMID:26605727

  18. Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers.

    PubMed

    Ward, Kathrin; Lauf, Steffen; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2016-11-01

    The climate change and the proceeding urbanization create future health challenges. Consequently, more people around the globe will be impaired by extreme weather events, such as heat waves. This study investigates the causes for the emergence of surface urban heat islands and its change during heat waves in 70 European cities. A newly created climate class indicator, a set of meaningful landscape metrics, and two population-related parameters were applied to describe the Surface Urban Heat Island Magnitude (SUHIM) - the mean temperature increase within the urban heat island compared to its surrounding, as well as the Heat Magnitude (HM) - the extra heat load added to the average summer SUHIM during heat waves. We evaluated the relevance of varying urban parameters within linear models. The exemplary European-wide heat wave in July 2006 was chosen and compared to the average summer conditions using MODIS land surface temperature with an improved spatial resolution of 250m. The results revealed that the initial size of the urban heat island had significant influence on SUHIM. For the explanation of HM the size of the heat island, the regional climate and the share of central urban green spaces showed to be critical. Interestingly, cities of cooler climates and cities with higher shares of urban green spaces were more affected by additional heat during heat waves. Accordingly, cooler northern European cities seem to be more vulnerable to heat waves, whereas southern European cities appear to be better adapted. Within the ascertained population and climate clusters more detailed explanations were found. Our findings improve the understanding of the urban heat island effect across European cities and its behavior under heat waves. Also, they provide some indications for urban planners on case-specific adaptation strategies to adverse urban heat caused by heat waves. PMID:27366983

  19. Studies on free stream turbulence as related to gas turbine heat transfer. A review of authors' past work and future implications.

    PubMed

    Yavuzkurt, S; Iyer, G R

    2001-05-01

    A review of the past work done on free stream turbulence (FST) as applied to gas turbine heat transfer and its implications for future studies are presented. It is a comprehensive approach to the results of many individual studies in order to derive the general conclusions that could be inferred from all rather than discussing the results of each individual study. Three experimental and four modeling studies are reviewed. The first study was on prediction of heat transfer for film cooled gas turbine blades. An injection model was devised and used along with a 2-D low Reynolds number k-epsilon model of turbulence for the calculations. Reasonable predictions of heat transfer coefficients were obtained for turbulence intensity levels up to 7%. Following this modeling study a series of experimental studies were undertaken. The objective of these studies was to gain a fundamental understanding of mechanisms through which FST augments the surface heat transfer. Experiments were carried out in the boundary layer and in the free stream downstream of a gas turbine combustor simulator, which produced initial FST levels of 25.7% and large length scales (About 5-10 cm for a boundary layer 4-5 cm thick). This result showed that one possible mechanism through which FST caused an increase in heat transfer is by increasing the number of ejection events. In a number of modeling studies several well-known k-epsilon models were compared for their predictive capability of heat transfer and skin friction coefficients under moderate and high FST. Two data sets, one with moderate levels of FST (about 7%) and one with high levels of FST (about 25%) were used for this purpose. Although the models did fine in their predictions of cases with no FST (baseline cases) they failed one by one as FST levels were increased. Under high FST (25.7% initial intensity) predictions of Stanton number were between 35-100% in error compared to the measured values. Later a new additional production term

  20. Climate extremes and ecosystem productivity in global warming simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Wehner, M. F.; Collins, W.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystem responses to present-day droughts and heat-waves are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts on ecosystems, under the assumption that the temperature above which vegetation experiences heat and drought stress is invariant with changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration. Understanding how the impacts of temperature extremes on ecosystems can change with climate change is essential for correctly evaluating and developing Earth System Models (ESMs). The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) historical and future (RCP8.5) climate predictions were analyzed in this study to illustrate non-stationarity of climate impacts on ecosystems, as evident by changes in the distribution of Gross Primary Production (GPP) as a function of temperature between future and historical climates. These changes consist of (1) a uniform shift in the GPP distribution toward warmer temperatures between future and historical climates, and (2) a proportional increase in GPP at all temperatures, consistent with CO2 fertilization. The temperature at which GPP has a local maximum within a given climate increases with global warming and closely tracks the change in mean temperature for each ecosystem. This maximum GPP temperature can be conceptualized as a stable equilibrium determined by the temperature at which an increase in plant water stress is compensated by a decrease in light stress (decreasing cloud cover) with increasing temperature. Temperature relative to the temperature of maximum GPP is proposed as an improved measure of climate extremes more relevant to ecosystem productivity than absolute temperature. The percentage change in GPP attributed to changes in relative temperature extremes is up to 3% per K (decrease in GPP), and reflects both an increase in the frequency of climate extremes in global warming scenarios and the change in temperature criteria for negative climate impacts on ecosystem productivity. Temperature at GPP maximum as

  1. Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Groisman, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

  2. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... the environment. How much should I drink during hot weather? During hot weather you will need to ... urine output. Should I take salt tablets during hot weather? Do not take salt tablets unless directed ...

  3. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... environment. How much should I drink during hot weather? During hot weather you will need to increase ... output. Should I take salt tablets during hot weather? Do not take salt tablets unless directed by ...

  4. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    SciTech Connect

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun -Young; Lim, Young -Kwon; Prabhat, -

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more

  5. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; et al

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so

  6. Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

  7. A Global Analysis of the Link between Soil Moisture Dynamics and Warm Extremes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casagrande, E.; Kondapalli, N. K.; Mueller, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Molini, A.

    2014-12-01

    Under future climatic scenarios long-lasting warm extremes, such as heat waves, are expected to become more intense, persistent and frequent for both temperate and arid regions, resulting in diverse but nonetheless significant impacts for the human health, sustainable development and economy of these regions. As the underlying processes responsible for triggering and sustaining warm extremes are extremely variegate and yet not well understood, the occurrence of extreme events such heat waves and prolonged droughts results exceedingly difficult to predict and model. Major uncertainties arise from the fact that warm extremes mainly derive from the interplay of large-scale atmospheric processes and local feedbacks operating across very different spatial and temporal scales, and are characterized by several thresholds, limiting factors and non-linearities determining their deviation from the "classical" extreme-value theory.In this study we explore - from a global point of view - the role of local and synoptic dynamical components in initiating warm extremes and in determining their spatial and temporal clustering. Previous studies have already highlighted the role of large negative soil moisture anomalies in causing and sustaining long periods of dry and hot weather. For this reason we propose here a novel approach to the characterization of warm extremes, based on the conditioning of traditional air temperature quintile statistics to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Case studies from different climatic regimes are shown in order to prove the major and varied role of antecedent soil moisture conditions across the different regions of the world. In addition, we also investigate the connection between regional climate features and large-scale dynamics during warm extremes by the joint usage of classical diagnostic analysis and novel statistics for the detection of cross-scale interactions.

  8. Extreme Scale Computational Astrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shoemaker, Deirdre

    2009-11-01

    We live in extraordinary times. With increasingly sophisticated observatories opening up new vistas on the universe, astrophysics is becoming more complex and data-driven. The success in understanding astrophysical systems that are inherently multi-physical, nonlinear systems demands realism in our models of the phenomena. We cannot hope to advance the realism of these models to match the expected sophistication of future observations without extreme-scale computation. Just one example is the advent of gravitational wave astronomy. Detectors like LIGO are about to make the first ever detection of gravitational waves. The gravitational waves are produced during violent events such as the merger of two black holes. The detection of these waves or ripples in the fabric of spacetime is a formidable undertaking, requiring innovative engineering, powerful data analysis tools and careful theoretical modeling. I will discuss the computational and theoretical challenges ahead in our new understanding of physics and astronomy where gravity exhibits its strongest grip on our spacetime.

  9. Heat waves, aging, and human cardiovascular health.

    PubMed

    Kenney, W Larry; Craighead, Daniel H; Alexander, Lacy M

    2014-10-01

    This brief review is based on a President's Lecture presented at the Annual Meeting of the American College of Sports Medicine in 2013. The purpose of this review was to assess the effects of climate change and consequent increases in environmental heat stress on the aging cardiovascular system. The earth's average global temperature is slowly but consistently increasing, and along with mean temperature changes come increases in heat wave frequency and severity. Extreme passive thermal stress resulting from prolonged elevations in ambient temperature and prolonged physical activity in hot environments creates a high demand on the left ventricle to pump blood to the skin to dissipate heat. Even healthy aging is accompanied by altered cardiovascular function, which limits the extent to which older individuals can maintain stroke volume, increase cardiac output, and increase skin blood flow when exposed to environmental extremes. In the elderly, the increased cardiovascular demand during heat waves is often fatal because of increased strain on an already compromised left ventricle. Not surprisingly, excess deaths during heat waves 1) occur predominantly in older individuals and 2) are overwhelmingly cardiovascular in origin. Increasing frequency and severity of heat waves coupled with a rapidly growing at-risk population dramatically increase the extent of future untoward health outcomes. PMID:24598696

  10. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  11. Direct interactions between molecular chaperones heat-shock protein (Hsp) 70 and Hsp40: yeast Hsp70 Ssa1 binds the extreme C-terminal region of yeast Hsp40 Sis1.

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Xinguo; Hou, Wenbo; Zhengang, Li; Sha, Bingdong

    2002-01-01

    Heat-shock protein 40 (Hsp40) enables Hsp70 to play critical roles in a number of cellular processes, such as protein folding, assembly, degradation and translocation in vivo. Hsp40 recognizes and binds non-native polypeptides and delivers them to Hsp70. Then Hsp40 stimulates the ATPase activity of Hsp70 to fold the polypeptides. By using yeast Hsp40 Sis1 and yeast Hsp70 Ssa1 as our model proteins, we found that the Sis1 peptide-binding fragment interacts directly with the full-length Ssa1 in vitro. Further studies showed that the C-terminal lid domain of Ssa1 could interact with Sis1 peptide-binding domain physically in vitro. The Sis1 peptide-binding fragment forms a stable complex with the Ssa1 C-terminal lid domain in solution. The interactions between these two proteins appear to be charge-charge interactions because high-ionic-strength buffer can dissociate the complex. Further mapping studies showed that the Sis1 peptide-binding fragment binds the extreme C-terminal 15 amino acid residues of Ssa1. A flexible glycine-rich region is followed by these 15 residues in the Ssa1 primary sequence. Atomic force microscopy of the Sis1-Ssa1 complex showed that only one end of the Ssa1 lid domain binds the Sis1 peptide-binding-fragment dimer at the upper level of the huge groove within the Sis1 dimer. Based on the data, we propose an "anchoring and docking" model to illustrate the mechanisms by which Hsp40 interacts with Hsp70 and delivers the non-native polypeptide to Hsp70. PMID:11743879

  12. Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine.

    PubMed

    Imray, Christopher H E; Grocott, Michael P W; Wilson, Mark H; Hughes, Amy; Auerbach, Paul S

    2015-12-19

    Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine are modern and rapidly evolving specialties that address the spirit of adventure and exploration. The relevance of and interest in these specialties are changing rapidly to match the underlying activities, which include global exploration, adventure travel, and military deployments. Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine share themes of providing best available medical care in the outdoors, especially in austere or remote settings. Early clinical and logistics decision making can often have important effects on subsequent outcomes. There are lessons to be learned from out-of-hospital care, military medicine, humanitarian medicine, and disaster medicine that can inform in-hospital medicine, and vice-versa. The future of extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine will be defined by both recipients and practitioners, and empirical observations will be transformed by evidence-based practice. PMID:26738718

  13. Can Solar Wind Volatiles Survive the Daily Heat Cycle of a Lunar Pit?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmerman, M. I.; Hurley, D.; Bussey, B.

    2014-12-01

    Lunar pits and hypothesized lava tubes could provide shelter from solar wind, radiation, and extreme heat variations during a future mission to the Moon. We employ three-dimensional finite-volume heating simulations using realistic surface geometries, solar illumination, and radiative transfer to characterize the quasisteady daily heat cycle within a lunar pit, with and without occluded subsurface regions such as lava tubes. Two-dimensional plasma simulations characterize the flow of solar wind ions onto the hottest illuminated surfaces. Combining the plasma and heat environments enables a highly detailed assessment of volatile stability within pits of different shapes, sizes, and latitudes.

  14. Variation in 20th Century Weather Extremes as a function of Biome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, C. J.; Brunsell, N. A.; Young, C.; Miller, L.

    2012-12-01

    A changing climate has the potential to cause changes in extreme weather. The United States Historical Climate Network (USHCN) data was used to examine extreme heat events, cold snaps and heavy precipitation patterns. Extreme weather events are quantified in terms of the number of occurrences above the 90th percentile as well as the magnitude threshold at which they occur. The Koeppen-Geiger climate classification system was used to relate the temperature and precipitation extremes to the underlying climate zone. Approximately 95 percent of the United States lies within nine Koeppen-Geiger climate zones which consist of three main climate zones: arid, warm temperate and snow. We have found that each climate zone shows a different trend in extreme events since 1900. A Mann-Kendall test shows that stations contained a significant increase or decrease of extreme weather events, depending on season and Koeppen-Geiger zone. In order to assess the significance of the changes over time, the data were broken up into two time series, 1950-1980 and 1980-2011. These two time periods were compared using a paired t-test to assess the significance of possible differences between the time periods. A shift in the magnitude of extreme weather events can be found throughout Koeppen-Geiger zones and differ by specific extreme weather event. The exposure and vulnerability of a change in extreme weather events elevates the risk of major societal impact. In order to prevent future natural catastrophe, it is vital to have a solid understanding of extreme weather.

  15. Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amengual, A.; Homar, V.; Romero, R.; Brooks, H. E.; Ramis, C.; Gordaliza, M.; Alonso, S.

    2014-08-01

    Climate change will result in more intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves. The most hazardous conditions emerge when extreme daytime temperatures combine with warm night-time temperatures, high humidities and light winds for several consecutive days. Here, we assess present and future heat wave impacts on human health in Europe. Present daily physiologically equivalent temperatures (PET) are derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. PET allows to specifically focus on heat-related risks on humans. Regarding projections, a suite of high-resolution regional climate models - run under SRES A1B scenario - has been used. A quantile-quantile adjustment is applied to the daily simulated PET to correct biases in individual model climatologies and a multimodel ensemble strategy is adopted to encompass model errors. Two types of heat waves differently impacting human health - strong and extreme stress - are defined according to specified thresholds of thermal stress and duration. Heat wave number, frequency, duration and amplitude are derived for each type. Results reveal relatively strong correlations between the spatial distribution of strong and extreme heat wave amplitudes and mortality excess for the 2003 European summer. Projections suggest a steady increase and a northward extent of heat wave attributes in Europe. Strong stress heat wave frequencies could increase more than 40 days, lasting over 20 days more by 2075-2094. Amplitudes might augment up to 7 °C per heat wave day. Important increases in extreme stress heat wave attributes are also expected: up to 40 days in frequency, 30 days in duration and 4 °C in amplitude. We believe that with this information at hand policy makers and stakeholders on vulnerable populations to heat stress can respond more effectively to the future challenges imposed by climate warming.

  16. Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

    PubMed

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

  17. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  18. Linking Extreme Weather Events and Extreme ENSO States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Xu, T.; Hoell, A.; Cheng, L.; Wolter, K.

    2015-12-01

    To what extent are the risks of extreme weather events over the contiguous US, such as heavy precipitation, heat and cold waves, conditioned by the state of tropical east Pacific SSTs? Further, do extreme magnitudes of El Niño and La Niña events exert a unique and particularly strong controlling effect on weather extremes? Here, we utilize both observations and multi-model large ensemble historical simulations to characterize the behavior of 5-day maximum precipitation distributions. We focus on relations between ENSO impacts on seasonal means and weather extremes, and explore the distinction between effects based on ENSO phase and intensity. For the cold season (November to April), overall ENSO impacts on mean precipitation are shown to be consistent with observations. This signal includes enhanced seasonal mean precipitation over the southern part of the U.S. and central Great Plains during El Niño, and enhanced seasonal mean precipitation over the Midwest during La Nina. We further demonstrate how these signals change under the influence of the most extreme ENSO events, conditions that are difficult to verify from observations owing to small sample sizes, but are modeled via large ensemble methods. The statistics of 5-day maximum precipitation, with a focus on 20-year return levels that characterizes rare but potentially damaging events, are examined. We demonstrate substantial differences in changes in the risk of extreme 5-day precipitation and the seasonal mean precipitation signal, especially in such regions as California, and the western Great Plains including the Front Range of the Rockies from Montana to New Mexico. The plausibility of such behavior is discussed via physical considerations and by examining the structural uncertainty in such outcomes across three different climate models.

  19. Present Status and Future of EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) Light Source Research 4.Laser Produced Plasma Light Sources 4.2High Average Power Laser Produced Plasma EUV Light Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endo, Akira

    This paper reviews the research and development of the high average power, extreme ultraviolet light source based on laser produced plasma by EUVA. The technology is based on a liquid Xe micro jet, high repetition rate short pulse Nd:YAG laser, and various diagnostics for plasma optimization are described.

  20. Flexible diaphragm-extreme temperature usage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lerma, Guillermo (Inventor)

    1991-01-01

    A diaphragm suitable for extreme temperature usage, such as encountered in critical aerospace applications, is fabricated by a unique method, and of a unique combination of materials. The materials include multilayered lay-ups of diaphragm materials sandwiched between layers of bleeder fabrics. After being formed in the desired shape on a mold, they are vacuum sealed and then cured under pressure, in a heated autoclave. A bond capable of withstanding extreme temperatures are produced.

  1. Workshop on Extreme Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mundell, Carole; Sullivan, Mark

    2012-04-01

    abstract-type="normal">SummaryNever before has there been such a wealth of versatile ground- and space-based facilities with which to detect variable emission across the electromagnetic spectrum and beyond, to non-EM signals such as neutrinos and gravitational waves, to probe the most extreme phenomena in the Universe. The variable sky is already providing a wealth of new and surprising observations of phenomena such as GRBs, SNe and AGN that are pushing current theories beyond the state of the art. Multi-messenger follow-up will soon become de rigeur, and upcoming radio and optical all-sky transient surveys will revolutionise the study of the transient Universe. In addition to the technical and data challenges presented by such surveys, a major new challenge will be the interpretation of the wealth of available data and the identification of the underlying physics of new classes of variable (and potentially exotic) objects. Theoretical predictions will be vital for interpreting these future transient discoveries. The goal of this workshop was to bring together theorists and observers in order to identify unexplored synergies across three main research areas of extreme physics: gamma-ray bursts, supernovæ and, more generically, relativistic jets. It aimed to discuss key outstanding questions in these rapidly moving fields, such as the composition and acceleration of GRB and AGN jets, GRB progenitors and central engines, the origin of the wide range of observed variability time-scales in GRB prompt and after-glow light curves and related cosmological applications, the physics of the newly-discovered ultra-luminous SN-like optical transients-as well as to speculate on what we might hope to discover with future technology. The workshop absorbed two 90-minute sessions, selecting 3 main science topics (Relativistic Jets, GRBs and SNe) which it organised as structured discussions driven by a series of short but provocative questions. The final session featured a panel

  2. The impact of climate extremes on US agricultural production and the buffering impacts of irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, Tara J.; Kipgen, Chinpihoi; Pal, Indrani

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, droughts and floods have occurred over many of the major growing regions of the world, resulting in decreased agricultural production and increased global food prices. Many climate projections call for more frequent extreme events, which could have significant impacts on agricultural yields and water resources in irrigated agricultural regions. In order to better understand the potential impact of climate extremes and the spatial heterogeneity of those impacts, we examine the associations between climate and irrigated and rain fed crop yields, focusing on four main staple crops: wheat, rice, soy, and maize. Because the United States has high spatial resolution data for both yields and weather variables, the analysis focuses on the impact of multiple extremes over these four crops in the US using statistical methods that do not require any assumptions of functional relationships between yields and weather variables. Irrigated and rain fed agricultural yields are analyzed separately to understand the role irrigation plays either as a buffering against climate variability and extremes such as drought, heat waves, and extended dry spells or a mechanism that leads to varied relationships between extremes of climate and yield fluctuations. These results demonstrate that irrigation has varying effects depending on the region, growing season timing, crop type, and type of climate extreme. This work has important implications for future planning of the coupled water-food system and its vulnerabilities to climate.

  3. Interannual to millennial variability of climate extreme indices over Europe: evidence from high resolution proxy data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Interannual to millennial time scale variability of precipitation (R20mm, Rx5day, R95pTOT), cold (TN10p, CSDI and CFD), heat (TX90p and WSDI) and drought (CDD) extreme climate indices is investigated using long-term observational and proxy records. We detect significant correlations between these indices and various high resolution proxy records like lake sediments from southern Germany, stable oxygen isotopes from Greenland ice cores and stable oxygen isotopes from Red Sea corals during observational period. The analysis of long-term reanalysis data in combination with extreme climate indices and proxy data reveals that distinct atmospheric circulation patterns explain most of the identified relationships. In particular, we show that a sediment record from southern Germany (lake Ammersee), which records flood frequency of River Ammer during the last 5500 years, is related to a wave-train atmospheric circulation pattern with a pronounced negative center over western Europe. We show that high frequency of River Ammer floods is related not only to high frequency of extreme precipitation events (R95p) in the Ammer region but also with significant positive anomalies of various extreme temperature indices (TX90p and TXx) over northeastern Europe. Such extreme temperatures are forced by cloudiness anomaly pattern associated with flood related atmospheric circulation pattern. Based on this record we discuss possible interannual to millennial scale variations of extreme precipitation and temperature indices over Europe during the last 5500 years. Coherent variations of extreme precipitation and temperature indices over Europe and stable oxygen isotopes from Greenland ice cores and northern Red Sea corals during observational period are related to atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic region. Possible variations of climate extreme indices during different time slices of the Holocene period and their implications for future extreme climate variability are

  4. Extreme Environments Technologies for Probes to Venus and Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balint, Tibor S.; Kolawa, Elizabeth A.; Peterson, Craig E.; Cutts, James A.; Belz, Andrea P.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the technologies that are used to mitigate extreme environments for probes at Venus and Jupiter. The contents include: 1) Extreme environments at Venus and Jupiter; 2) In-situ missions to Venus and Jupiter (past/present/future); and 3) Approaches to mitigate conditions of extreme environments for probes with systems architectures and technologies.

  5. Increasing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc; Silva, Filipe Batista e.; Marin, Mario; Lavalle, Carlo; Leblois, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    The projected increases in exposure to multiple climate hazards in many regions of Europe, emphasize the relevance of a multi-hazard risk assessment to comprehensively quantify potential impacts of climate change and develop suitable adaptation strategies. In this context, quantifying the future impacts of climatic extremes on critical infrastructures is crucial due to their key role for human wellbeing and their effects on the overall economy. Critical infrastructures describe the existing assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. We assess the direct damages of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, wildfires and windstorms to energy, transport, industry and social infrastructures in Europe along the 21st century. The methodology integrates in a coherent framework climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. Overall damage is expected to rise up to 38 billion €/yr, ten time-folds the current climate damage, with drastic variations in risk scenarios. Exemplificative are drought and heat-related damages that could represent 70% of the overall climate damage in 2080s versus the current 12%. Many regions, prominently Southern Europe, will likely suffer multiple stresses and systematic infrastructure failures due to climate extremes if no suitable adaptation measures will be taken.

  6. Extreme Scale Visual Analytics

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Pak C.; Shen, Han-Wei; Pascucci, Valerio

    2012-05-08

    Extreme-scale visual analytics (VA) is about applying VA to extreme-scale data. The articles in this special issue examine advances related to extreme-scale VA problems, their analytical and computational challenges, and their real-world applications.

  7. Extreme Environments: Why NASA?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, M. A.

    2002-12-01

    Life on our planet is the only known example in the universe and so we are relegated to this planet for the study of life. However, life may be a natural consequence of planet formation, and so the study of the origin, evolution, distribution and future of life may be greatly informed by planetary exploration. Astrobiology has adopted several approaches to study life on Earth, for deducing our origins, for determining the likelihood of life elsewhere, and for enabling the search for evidence of past or present life. The first approach has been the Exobiology Program, centered around understanding the origins of life and which supports individual investigator research. Second has been the construction of consortia-type research in which researchers from different disciplines focus on a larger problem. This structure began with NASA Specialized Centers of Research and Training and has grown to include the Astrobiology Institute - a collection of competitively selected groups of researchers attacking problems in Astrobiology as individual teams and as a consolidated Institute. With the formation of an intellectual basis for exploring for life elsewhere, Astrobiology has initiated the competitive research and development program in instrument development (Astrobiology Science and Technology for Instrument Development [ASTID] Program) that would enable future mission instruments for the exploration of planetary bodies in the search for prebiotic chemistry, habitable environments (past or present), biomarkers, and possibly life itself. However, the act of exploring requires robust instrumentation, mobile robotic platforms, efficient operations, and a high level of autonomy. To this end, Astrobiology has started a new research activity that promotes scientifically-driven robotic exploration of extreme environments on Earth that are analogous to suspected habitable environments on other planetary bodies. The program is called Astrobiology Science and Technology for

  8. Diurnal wind variability under heatwaves and extreme drought periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez, Pedro A.; Vilöguerau de Arellano, Jordi; Fidel González-Rouco, J.; Navarro, Jorge; Montávez, Juan P.; García-Bustamante, Elena; Dudhia, Jimy

    2010-05-01

    Extreme weather situations produce strong impacts on society, infrastructures and ecosystems. The drought and heatwave that affected Europe in the summer of 2003 produced enormous socioeconomic implications. The anticyclonic conditions and a deficit of soil moisture availability led to the extremely high surface air temperatures registered. Several studies have shown that the characteristics of the 2003 European summer will be more frequent, more intense and longer lasting in the future. Therefore, determining atmospheric flow patterns during the heat wave and drought of 2003 is necessary in order to assess potential modifications in the circulations due to associated warmer and drier conditions. However, the effects that the extreme weather situation of the summer of 2003 produced on the surface wind have received little attention. In this work, we examine changes in the wind field due to the heatwave and drought conditions that occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. Our analysis, based on observations and high resolution mesoscale modelling, shows a 22 % decrease in the wind diurnal cycle for summer 2003 values compared to a climatological series based on the period from 1992-2004. We discuss the wind diurnal variability in terms of the synoptic scale atmospheric conditions, and of the mesoscale and boundary layer dynamic contribution influenced by the lower values in the soil moisture. The results suggest the synoptic conditions as the main reason of the wind field change and that these are modulated by the moisture conditions of the soil.

  9. Impact of the extreme 2009 wildfires in Victoria on the soil system and implications for fire behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doerr, Stefan; Shakesby, R. A.; Sheridan, G. J.; Lane, P. N. J.; Smith, H. G.; Bell, T.; Brooks, J.; Blake, W. H.

    2010-05-01

    The recent catastrophic wildfires near Melbourne in 2009 occurred during unprecedented extreme fire weather when dry northerly winds gusting up to 100 km/h coincided with the highest temperatures ever recorded in this region. These conditions, combined with the very high biomass of mature eucalypt forests (estimated to exceed 40 t/ha in places), very low fuel moisture conditions and steep slopes, generated extreme burning conditions. A rapid response project, funded by the NERC Urgency scheme, was launched to reconstruct heat input into the soils, and to determine associated effects on soil properties and seed bank survival. Three replicate sites were sampled for extremely high burn severity and high burn severity, and four for long unburnt control terrain, within mature mixed-species eucalypt forests near Marysville in April 2009. Additional exploratory sampling was carried out in 'rainforest'. Ash (where applicable) and surface soil (0-2.5 cm and 2.5-5 cm) were collected at 20 sample grid points at each site. Here we report on preliminary outcomes from soil water repellency determination, and seedbank germination experiments, which allow reconstructing of soil temperature and burn severity, and provide insights into fire behaviour, of this extreme event. Field and laboratory assessment of the soil suggest that the heat input to the soil was less than might be supposed given the extreme estimated fire intensity (>70,000 kW/m). Our data indicate that soil temperatures in the top 0-2.5 cm did not exceed ca 200°C. The limited heat input into the soil stands in stark contrast to the extreme fire intensity. We speculate that it resulted from an unusually fast-moving fire front associated with the extreme wind speeds, causing a short fire residence time. Whilst this fire event has been extreme in many respects, its impact on the soil system has clearly been less than what might have been expected. Thus it could be argued that the more extreme burning conditions that

  10. Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2010-05-01

    Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.

  11. Potential impacts of afforestation on climate change and extreme events in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Salami, Ayobami T.; Matthew, Olaniran J.; Odedokun, Sola

    2013-07-01

    Afforestation is usually thought as a good approach to mitigate impacts of warming over a region. This study presents an argument that afforestation may have bigger impacts than originally thought by previous studies. The study investigates the impacts of afforestation on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria, using a regional climate model (RegCM3), forced with global climate model simulations. The impacts of seven afforestation options on the near future (2031-2050, under A1B scenario) climate and the extreme events are investigated. RegCM3 replicates essential features in the present-day (1981-2000) climate and the associated extreme events, and adequately simulates the seasonal variations over the ecological zones in the country. However, the model simulates the seasonal climate better over the northern ecological zones than over the southern ecological zones. The simulated spatial distribution of the extreme events agrees well with the observation, though the magnitude of the simulated events is smaller than the observed. The study shows that afforestation in Nigeria could have both positive and negative future impacts on the climate change and extreme events in the country. While afforestation reduces the projected global warming and enhances rainfall over the afforested area (and over coastal zones), it enhances the warming and reduces the rainfall over the north-eastern part of the country. In addition, the afforestation induces more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events (flooding) over the coastal region and more frequent occurrence of heat waves and droughts over the semi-arid region. The positive and negative impacts of the afforestation are not limited to Nigeria; they extend to the neighboring countries. While afforestation lowers the warming and enhances rainfall over Benin Republic, it increases the warming and lowers the rainfall over Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The result of the study has important implication for the ongoing climate

  12. Are hourly precipitation extremes increasing faster than daily precipitation extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbero, Renaud; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lenderink, Geert

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events appear to be increasing with climate change in many regions of the world, including the United States. These extreme events have large societal impacts, as seen during the recent Texas-Oklahoma flooding in May 2015 which caused several billion in damages and left 47 deaths in its path. Better understanding of past changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall events is thus critical for reliable projections of future changes. Although it has been documented in several studies that daily precipitation extremes are increasing across parts of the contiguous United States, very few studies have looked at hourly extremes. However, this is of primary importance as recent studies on the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation have shown that increases above the Clausius-Clapeyron (~ 7% °C‑1) are possible for hourly precipitation. In this study, we used hourly precipitation data (HPD) from the National Climatic Data Center and extracted more than 1,000 stations across the US with more than 40 years of data spanning the period 1950-2010. As hourly measurements are often associated with a range of issues, the data underwent multiple quality control processes to exclude erroneous data. While no significant changes were found in annual maximum precipitation using both hourly and daily resolution datasets, significant increasing trends in terms of frequency of episodes exceeding present-day 95th percentiles of wet hourly/daily precipitation were observed across a significant portion of the US. The fraction of stations with significant increasing trends falls outside the confidence interval range during all seasons but the summer. While less than 12% of stations exhibit significant trends at the daily scale in the wintertime, more than 45% of stations, mostly clustered in central and Northern United States, show significant increasing trends at the hourly scale. This suggests that short-duration storms have increased faster than daily

  13. Evolutions from extremality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, Ivan

    2016-04-01

    We examine the evolution of extremal spherically symmetric black holes, developing both general theory as well as the specific cases of (charged) null dust and massless scalar field spacetimes. As matter accretes onto extremal marginally trapped tubes, they generically evolve to become nonextremal, with the initial extremal horizon bifurcating into inner and outer nonextremal horizons. At the start of this process arbitrarily slow matter accretion can cause a geometrically invariant measure of horizon growth to jump from zero to infinity. We also consider dynamical horizons that are extremal throughout their evolution and see that such spacetimes contain two extremal black hole horizons: an inner isolated one and an outer dynamical one. We compare these extremal dynamical horizons with the dynamical extreme event horizon spacetimes of Murata, Reall and Tanahashi.

  14. A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Susan T.

    2014-01-01

    This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

  15. Performance characteristic of thermosyphon heat pipe at radiant heat source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrabovský, Peter; Papučík, Štefan; Kaduchová, Katarína

    2016-06-01

    This article discusses about device, which is called heat pipe. This device is with heat source with radiant heat source. Heat pipe is device with high efficiency of heat transfer. The heat pipe, which is describe in this article is termosyphon heat pipe. The experiment with termosyphon heat pipe get a result. On the base of result, it will be in future to create mathematical model in Ansys. Thermosyphon heat pipe is made of copper and distilled water is working fluid. The significance of this experiment consists in getting of the heat transfer and performance characteristic. On the basis of measured and calculated data can be constructed the plots.

  16. Understanding hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mård, Johanna; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological extremes, from floods to droughts, pose one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Many of these challenges are associated with societal interactions with water, as people control or impact hydrological systems in a multitude of ways while they are also being affected and shaped by hydrological extremes, depending on their response to drought and flood events. However, the fact that the human and natural components of freshwater systems interact and co-evolve over time is often not taken into account. There is a need to study the two-way coupling between hydrology and society within a more comprehensive framework for hydrological extremes to anticipate future trajectories in a rapidly changing world. We present an interdisciplinary framework (and concepts) to identify internal controlling variables, processes and feedbacks, and the external system drivers and disturbances of the coupled human-water system with regard to hydrological extremes. To achieve this, the study (i) synthesizes existing research on coupled human-water system focusing on floods and droughts, (ii) analyzes hydrological extremes that have already occurred and their spatiotemporal patterns to investigate what patterns are observed in different regions of the world, and (iii) systematically describe the observed hydrological extremes, their causes and the interactions and feedbacks between hydrology and society. Advancing our understanding of mechanisms and feedbacks driving hydrological extremes is essential to better anticipate how the coupled human-water system will respond to future environmental change.

  17. Environmental extremes: origins, consequences and amelioration in humans.

    PubMed

    Tipton, M J

    2016-01-01

    Professor Sir George Lindor Brown (1903-1971) is known for his pioneering research into cholinergic neuromuscular transmission. However, during World War II he worked in hyperbaric physiology, and his research into underwater physiology greatly improved the safety of divers. It is perhaps fitting, therefore, that this review, which accompanies the Physiological Society's G. L. Brown Prize Lecture for 2015, explores the impact and mitigation of the environmental stresses which, to varying extents, have shaped our past, threaten our present and inform our future. From a whole-body, integrative perspective, this review examines our current understanding of microgravity, hypo- and hyperbaria, heat, cold air and cold water as both individual and combined stresses. Consideration is given to ways of mitigating the threat posed by environmental extremes, including the differing extents to which humans can demonstrate adaptation to them. Finally, recommendations for further study are suggested that might result in both direct and indirect insights. PMID:26391095

  18. Capabilities of the Extreme Conditions Beamline at PETRA III, DESY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liermann, Hanns-Peter; Konôpková, Zuzana; Morgenroth, Wolfgang; Rothkirch, Andre; Wittich, Eugen; Delitz, Jan-Torben; Ehnes, Anita

    2013-06-01

    At the end of 2010 the Extreme Conditions Beamline (ECB) at PETRA III received first beam and entered the commissioning phase. Since 2012 we are offering beamtime to general users to conduct a variety of different experiments such as powder and single diffraction in the laser/resistive heated and cryogenically cooled Diamond Anvil Cell (DAC). Particularly attractive has been our ability to conducted diffraction experiments at high energies of 60 and 77 keV for pair distribution function (PDF) studies as well as possibility to preform time resolved powder diffraction experiments at 26 and 43 keV with a maximum time resolution of 15 Hz. Within we present some of the current capabilities of the beamline as well as future plans to promote single crystal diffraction at high pressures and temperatures using both monochromatic and pink beam. Finally, we emphasis the present and future time resolved capabilities to conduct powder and single crystal diffraction experiments under dynamic compression and heating conditions in the DAC. Part of this project was funded by the ``Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung'' under contracts 05KS7RF1 and 05K10RFA ``Verbundprojekt: Messeinrichtungen fuer die Material- und Strukturforschung an PETRA III, 2: Laserheizung for ``ECB''.

  19. Finding of No Significant Impact and Final Environmental Assessment for the Future Location of Heat Source/Radioisotope Power System Assembly and Testing and Operations Currently Located at the Mound Site

    SciTech Connect

    N /A

    2002-08-30

    The U.S. Department of Energy (the Department) has completed an Environmental Assessment for the Future Location of the Heat Source/Radioisotope Power System Assembly and Test. Operations Currently Located at the Mound Site. Based on the analysis in the environmental assessment, the Department has determined that the proposed action, the relocation of the Department's heat source and radioisotope power system operations, does not constitute a major Federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment within the meaning of the ''National Environmental Policy Act'' of 1969 (NEPA). Therefore, the preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement is not required, and the Department is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI).

  20. Racial and socioeconomic disparities in heat-related health effects and their mechanisms: a review

    PubMed Central

    Gronlund, Carina J.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation to increasing extreme heat in a changing climate requires a precise understanding of who is most vulnerable to the health effects of extreme heat. The evidence for race, ethnicity, income, education and occupation, at the individual and area levels, as indicators of vulnerability is reviewed. The evidence for the social, behavioral and technological mechanisms by which racial and socioeconomic disparities in vulnerability exist is also reviewed. These characteristics include cardiorespiratory, renal and endocrine comorbidities; cognitive, mental or physical disabilities; medication use; housing characteristics; neighborhood characteristics such as urban heat islands, crime and safety; social isolation; and individual behaviors such as air conditioning use, opening windows and using fans and use of cooler public spaces. Pre-existing and future research identifying these more proximal indicators of vulnerability will provide information that is more generalizable across locations and time to aid in identifying who to target for prevention of heat-associated morbidity and mortality. PMID:25512891

  1. Interpreting Climate Model Projections of Extreme Weather Events for Decision Makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Notaro, M.

    2014-12-01

    The proliferation of output from climate model ensembles, such as CMIP3 and CMIP5, has greatly expanded access to future projections, but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be interpreted. Decision makers are thus faced with difficult questions when trying to utilize such information: How reliable are the multi-model mean projections? How should the changes simulated by outlier models be treated? How can raw projections of temperature and precipitation be translated into probabilities? The multi-model average is often regarded as the most accurate single estimate of future conditions, but higher-order moments representing the variance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to conduct an assessment of extreme weather events at a level designed to be relevant for decision makers. Our analysis uses the distribution of 13 GCM projections to derive the inter-model standard deviation (and coefficient of variation, COV), skewness, and percentile ranges for simulated changes in extreme heat, cold, and precipitation during the middle and late 21st century for the A1B emissions scenario. These metrics help to establish the overall confidence level across the entire range of projections (via the inter-model COV), relative confidence in the simulated high-end versus low-end changes (via skewness), and probabilistic uncertainty bounds derived from a bootstrapping technique. Over our analysis domain centered on the United States Midwest, some primary findings include: (1) Greater confidence in projections of less extreme cold than more extreme heat and intense precipitation, (2) Greater confidence in the low-end than high-end projections of extreme heat, and (3) Higher spatial and temporal variability in the confidence of projected increases of heavy precipitation. In addition, our bootstrapping

  2. 21st Birthday Drinking: Extremely Extreme

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutledge, Patricia C.; Park, Aesoon; Sher, Kenneth J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite public recognition of the hazards of 21st birthday drinking, there is little empirical information concerning its prevalence, severity, and risk factors. Data from a sample of 2,518 college students suggest that 21st birthday drinking poses an extreme danger: (a) 4 of every 5 participants (83%) reported drinking to celebrate, (b) birthday…

  3. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  4. Heating of active region cores: Impulsive or steady?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathi, Durgesh

    The question of active region heating has proven to be highly challenging since its discovery in 1940s. The recent observational facilities have shed new lights towards the understanding of this problem. In this paper we review some of the new measurements to study the heating mechanisms in the hot core loops of active regions using the observations recorded by Solar Ultraviolet Measurements of Emitted Radiation (SUMER) onboard SoHO and the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) aboard Hinode. These new measurements show that the properties of hot core loops are consistent with by impulsive heating -- low frequency nanoflare - scenario. However, the evidences are not strong enough to rule-out steady heating completely. Further measurement using better spectral resolution and temperature coverage is required, which will be provided by Interface Region Imaging Spectrometer (IRIS) and Solar-C in near future.

  5. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  6. Extremity x-ray

    MedlinePlus

    An extremity x-ray is an image of the hands, wrist, feet, ankle, leg, thigh, forearm humerus or upper arm, hip, shoulder ... term "extremity" often refers to a human limb. X-rays are a form of radiation that passes through ...

  7. The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro; Cucchi, Marco

    2016-04-01

    In this work we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It is on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a suitable threshold above which the events can be held as extremes. In this paper, after describing the methodology we used for the construction of the ECI, we present results obtained on different African regions, using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sigma 0.995 level and CHIRP dataset for precipitations.

  8. Effect of Variable Emittance Coatings on the Operation of a Miniature Loop Heat Pipe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, Donya M.; Ku, Jentung; Ottenstein, Laura; Swanson, Theodore; Hess, Steve; Darrin, Ann

    2005-02-01

    As the size of spacecraft shrink to accommodate small and more efficient instruments, smaller launch vehicles, and constellation missions, all subsystems must also be made smaller. Under NASA NRA 03-OSS-02, Space Technology-8 (ST 8), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Jet Propulsion Laboratory jointly conducted a Concept Definition study to develop a miniature loop heat pipe (loop heat pipe) thermal management system design suitable for future small spacecraft. The proposed loop heat pipe thermal management system consists of a miniature loop heat pipe (LHP) and deployable radiators that are coated with variable emittance coatings (VECs). As part of the Phase A study and proof of the design concept, variable emittance coatings were integrated with a breadboard miniature loop heat pipe. The entire system was tested under vacuum at various temperature extremes and power loads. This paper summarizes the results of this testing and shows the effect of the VEC on the operation of a miniature loop heat pipe.

  9. Bivariate extreme value distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshamy, M.

    1992-01-01

    In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

  10. Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

    PubMed Central

    Young, Robert D.; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism. PMID:21461047

  11. Pneumatic Proboscis Heat-Flow Probe

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zacny, Kris; Hedlund, Magnus; Mumm, Eric; Shasho, Jeffrey; Chu, Philip; Kumar, Nishant

    2013-01-01

    Heat flow is a fundamental property of a planet, and provides significant constraints on the abundance of radiogenic isotopes, the thermal evolution and differentiation history, and the mechanical properties of the lithosphere. Heat-flow measurements are also essential in achieving at least four of the goals set out by the National Research Council for future lunar exploration. The heat-flow probe therefore directly addresses the goal of the Lunar Geophysical Network, which is to understand the interior structure and composition of the Moon. A key challenge for heat flow measurement is to install thermal sensors to the depths approximately equal to 3 m that are not influenced by the diurnal, annual, and longer-term fluctuations of the surface thermal environment. In addition, once deployed, the heat flow probe should cause little disturbance to the thermal regime of the surrounding regolith. A heat-flow probe system was developed that has two novel features: (1) it utilizes a pneumatic (gas) approach, excavates a hole by lofting the lunar soil out of the hole, and (2) deploys the heat flow probe, which utilizes a coiled up tape as a thermal probe to reach greater than 3-meter depth. The system is a game-changer for small lunar landers as it exhibits extremely low mass, volume, and simple deployment. The pneumatic system takes advantage of the helium gas used for pressurizing liquid propellant of the lander. Normally, helium is vented once the lander is on the surface, but it can be utilized for powering pneumatic systems. Should sufficient helium not be available, a simple gas delivery system may be taken specifically for the heat flow probe. Either way, the pneumatic heat flow probe system would be much lighter than other systems that entirely rely on the electrical power of the lander.

  12. Heat Pipes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Bobs Candies, Inc. produces some 24 million pounds of candy a year, much of it 'Christmas candy.' To meet Christmas demand, it must produce year-round. Thousands of cases of candy must be stored a good part of the year in two huge warehouses. The candy is very sensitive to temperature. The warehouses must be maintained at temperatures of 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit with relative humidities of 38- 42 percent. Such precise climate control of enormous buildings can be very expensive. In 1985, energy costs for the single warehouse ran to more than $57,000 for the year. NASA and the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) were adapting heat pipe technology to control humidity in building environments. The heat pipes handle the jobs of precooling and reheating without using energy. The company contacted a FSEC systems engineer and from that contact eventually emerged a cooperative test project to install a heat pipe system at Bobs' warehouses, operate it for a period of time to determine accurately the cost benefits, and gather data applicable to development of future heat pipe systems. Installation was completed in mid-1987 and data collection is still in progress. In 1989, total energy cost for two warehouses, with the heat pipes complementing the air conditioning system was $28,706, and that figures out to a cost reduction.

  13. Miniature Heat Pipes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    Small Business Innovation Research contracts from Goddard Space Flight Center to Thermacore Inc. have fostered the company work on devices tagged "heat pipes" for space application. To control the extreme temperature ranges in space, heat pipes are important to spacecraft. The problem was to maintain an 8-watt central processing unit (CPU) at less than 90 C in a notebook computer using no power, with very little space available and without using forced convection. Thermacore's answer was in the design of a powder metal wick that transfers CPU heat from a tightly confined spot to an area near available air flow. The heat pipe technology permits a notebook computer to be operated in any position without loss of performance. Miniature heat pipe technology has successfully been applied, such as in Pentium Processor notebook computers. The company expects its heat pipes to accommodate desktop computers as well. Cellular phones, camcorders, and other hand-held electronics are forsible applications for heat pipes.

  14. Socio-cultural reflections on heat in Australia with implications for health and climate change adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Banwell, Cathy; Dixon, Jane; Bambrick, Hilary; Edwards, Ferne; Kjellström, Tord

    2012-01-01

    Background Australia has a hot climate with maximum summer temperatures in its major cities frequently exceeding 35°C. Although ‘heat waves’ are an annual occurrence, the associated heat-related deaths among vulnerable groups, such as older people, suggest that Australians could be better prepared to deal with extreme heat. Objective To understand ways in which a vulnerable sub-population adapt their personal behaviour to cope with heat within the context of Australians’ relationship with heat. Design We draw upon scientific, historical and literary sources and on a set of repeat interviews in the suburbs of Western Sydney with eight older participants and two focus group discussions. We discuss ways in which this group of older people modifies their behaviour to adapt to heat, and reflect on manifestations of Australians’ ambivalence towards heat. Results Participants reported a number of methods for coping with extreme heat, including a number of methods of personal cooling, changing patterns of daily activity and altering dietary habits. The use of air-conditioning was near universal, but with recognition that increasing energy costs may become more prohibitive over time. Conclusions While a number of methods are employed by older people to stay cool, these may become limited in the future. Australians’ attitudes may contribute to the ill-health and mortality associated with excessive heat. PMID:23078748

  15. The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review.

    PubMed

    Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua

    2015-07-01

    The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed. PMID:26132476

  16. The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua

    2015-01-01

    The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed. PMID:26132476

  17. Global warming and extreme storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinsted, Aslak

    2013-04-01

    I will show empirical evidence for how global warming has changed extreme storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?

  18. Surface atmospheric extremes (launch and transportation areas)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    Criteria are provided on atmospheric extremes from the surface to 150 meters for geographical locations of interest to NASA. Thermal parameters (temperature and solar radiation), humidity, precipitation, pressure, and atmospheric electricity (lightning and static) are presented. Available data are also provided for the entire continental United States for use in future space programs.

  19. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  20. The Control of Lighting Heat

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Modern Schools, 1973

    1973-01-01

    The trend toward increased lighting has accelerated the acceptance of heat recovery systems. A heating-lighting-cooling system is a responsible and efficient use of energy for future school buildings. (Author/MLF)

  1. Heat pipe array heat exchanger

    DOEpatents

    Reimann, Robert C.

    1987-08-25

    A heat pipe arrangement for exchanging heat between two different temperature fluids. The heat pipe arrangement is in a ounterflow relationship to increase the efficiency of the coupling of the heat from a heat source to a heat sink.

  2. Survival of extreme opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

    2009-12-01

    We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

  3. Improving extreme value statistics.

    PubMed

    Shekhawat, Ashivni

    2014-11-01

    The rate of convergence in extreme value statistics is nonuniversal and can be arbitrarily slow. Further, the relative error can be unbounded in the tail of the approximation, leading to difficulty in extrapolating the extreme value fit beyond the available data. We introduce the T method, and show that by using simple nonlinear transformations the extreme value approximation can be rendered rapidly convergent in the bulk, and asymptotic in the tail, thus fixing both issues. The transformations are often parametrized by just one parameter, which can be estimated numerically. The classical extreme value method is shown to be a special case of the proposed method. We demonstrate that vastly improved results can be obtained with almost no extra cost. PMID:25493780

  4. Extreme environments and exobiology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedmann, E. I.

    1993-01-01

    Ecological research on extreme environments can be applied to exobiological problems such as the question of life on Mars. If life forms (fossil or extant) are found on Mars, their study will help to solve fundamental questions about the nature of life on Earth. Extreme environments that are beyond the range of adaptability of their inhabitants are defined as "absolute extreme". Such environments can serve as terrestrial models for the last stages of life in the history of Mars, when the surface cooled down and atmosphere and water disappeared. The cryptoendolithic microbial community in porous rocks of the Ross Desert in Antarctica and the microbial mats at the bottom of frozen Antarctic lakes are such examples. The microbial communities of Siberian permafrost show that, in frozen but stable communities, long-term survival is possible. In the context of terraforming Mars, selected microorganisms isolated from absolute extreme environments are considered for use in creation of a biological carbon cycle.

  5. Hardware removal - extremity

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/007644.htm Hardware removal - extremity To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Surgeons use hardware such as pins, plates, or screws to help ...

  6. Adaptation to heat health risk among vulnerable urban residents: a multi-city approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelmi, O.; Hayden, M.; Brenkert-Smith, H.

    2010-12-01

    Recent studies on climate impacts demonstrate that climate change will have differential consequences in the U.S. at the regional and local scales. Changing climate is predicted to increase the frequency, intensity and impacts of extreme heat events prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability. Central to understanding societal vulnerability, is population’s adaptive capacity, which, in turn, influences adaptation, the actual adjustments made to cope with the impacts from current and future hazardous heat events. To-date, few studies have considered the complexity of vulnerability and its relationship to capacity to cope with or adapt to extreme heat. In this presentation we will discuss a pilot project conducted in 2009 in Phoenix, AZ, which explored urban societal vulnerability and adaptive capacity to extreme heat in several neighborhoods. Household-level surveys revealed differential adaptive capacity among the neighborhoods and social groups. In response to this pilot project, and in order to develop a methodological framework that could be used across locales, we also present an expansion of this project into Houston, TX and Toronto, Canada with the goal of furthering our understanding of adaptive capacity to extreme heat in very different urban settings. This presentation will communicate the results of the extreme heat vulnerability survey in Phoenix as well as the multidisciplinary, multi-model framework that will be used to explore urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies to heat in Houston and Toronto. We will outline challenges and opportunities in furthering our understanding of adaptive capacity and the need to approach these problems from a macro to a micro level.

  7. Development of an Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility at Princeton

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, A B; Tully, C G; Austin, R; Calaprice, F; McDonald, K; Ascione, G; Baker, G; Davidson, R; Dudek, L; Grisham, L; Kugel, H; Pagdon, K; Stevenson, T; Woolley, R; Zwicker, A

    2010-11-17

    The need for a fundamental understanding of material response to a neutron and/or high heat flux environment can yield development of improved materials and operations with existing materials. Such understanding has numerous applications in fields such as nuclear power (for the current fleet and future fission and fusion reactors), aerospace, and other research fields (e.g., high-intensity proton accelerator facilities for high energy physics research). A proposal has been advanced to develop a facility for testing various materials under extreme heat and neutron exposure conditions at Princeton. The Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility comprises an environmentally controlled chamber (48 m^3) capable of high vacuum conditions, with extreme flux beams and probe beams accessing a central, large volume target. The facility will have the capability to expose large surface areas (1 m^2) to 14 MeV neutrons at a fluence in excess of 10^13 n/s. Depending on the operating mode. Additionally beam line power on the order of 15-75 MW/m2 for durations of 1-15 seconds are planned... The multi-second duration of exposure can be repeated every 2-10 minutes for periods of 10-12 hours. The facility will be housed in the test cell that held the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR), which has the desired radiation and safety controls as well as the necessary loading and assembly infrastructure. The facility will allow testing of various materials to their physical limit of thermal endurance and allow for exploring the interplay between radiation-induced embrittlement, swelling and deformation of materials, and the fatigue and fracturing that occur in response to thermal shocks. The combination of high neutron energies and intense fluences will enable accelerated time scale studies. The results will make contributions for refining predictive failure modes (modeling) in extreme environments, as well as providing a technical platform for the development of new alloys, new

  8. [Heat waves: health impacts].

    PubMed

    Marto, Natália

    2005-01-01

    During the summer of 2003, record high temperatures were reported across Europe, causing thousands of casualties. Heat waves are sporadic recurrent events, characterised by intense and prolonged heat, associated with excess mortality and morbidity. The most frequent cause of death directly attributable to heat is heat stroke but heat waves are known to cause increases in all-cause mortality, specially circulatory and respiratory mortality. Epidemiological studies demonstrate excess casualties cluster in specific risk groups. The elderly, those with chronic medical conditions and the socially isolated are particularly vulnerable. Air conditioning is the strongest protective factor against heat-related disorders. Heat waves cause disease indirectly, by aggravating chronic disorders, and directly, by causing heat-related illnesses (HRI). Classic HRI include skin eruptions, heat cramps, heat syncope, heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Heat stroke is a medical emergency characterised by hyperthermia and central nervous system dysfunction. Treatment includes immediate cooling and support of organ-system function. Despite aggressive treatment, heat stroke is often fatal and permanent neurological damage is frequent in those who survive. Heat related illness and death are preventable through behavioural adaptations, such as use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency warning systems and intervention plans and environmental heat stress reduction. Heat related mortality is expected to rise as a consequence of the increasing proportion of elderly persons, the growing urban population, and the anticipated increase in number and intensity of heat waves associated with global warming. Improvements in surveillance and response capability may limit the adverse health conditions of future heat waves. It is crucial that health professionals are prepared to recognise, prevent and treat HRI and learn to cooperate with local health

  9. Moving in extreme environments: extreme loading; carriage versus distance.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Samuel J E; Helge, Jørn W; Schütz, Uwe H W; Goldman, Ralph F; Cotter, James D

    2016-01-01

    This review addresses human capacity for movement in the context of extreme loading and with it the combined effects of metabolic, biomechanical and gravitational stress on the human body. This topic encompasses extreme duration, as occurs in ultra-endurance competitions (e.g. adventure racing and transcontinental races) and expeditions (e.g. polar crossings), to the more gravitationally limited load carriage (e.g. in the military context). Juxtaposed to these circumstances is the extreme metabolic and mechanical unloading associated with space travel, prolonged bedrest and sedentary lifestyle, which may be at least as problematic, and are therefore included as a reference, e.g. when considering exposure, dangers and (mal)adaptations. As per the other reviews in this series, we describe the nature of the stress and the associated consequences; illustrate relevant regulations, including why and how they are set; present the pros and cons for self versus prescribed acute and chronic exposure; describe humans' (mal)adaptations; and finally suggest future directions for practice and research. In summary, we describe adaptation patterns that are often U or J shaped and that over time minimal or no load carriage decreases the global load carrying capacity and eventually leads to severe adverse effects and manifest disease under minimal absolute but high relative loads. We advocate that further understanding of load carrying capacity and the inherent mechanisms leading to adverse effects may advantageously be studied in this perspective. With improved access to insightful and portable technologies, there are some exciting possibilities to explore these questions in this context. PMID:27110357

  10. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  11. Long-term Changes in Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology and Implications for Air Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shiliang; Hou, Pei

    2014-05-01

    Climate change can significantly affect air pollution meteorology. Of particular concern is the changes in extreme meteorological events (such as heat waves, temperature inversion, atmospheric stagnation and lightning) that have important implications for air quality and public health. We analyze the observed long-term changes in air pollution meteorology based on global datasets for the past decades (ca. 1950-2010) to examine the possible trends in the context of global climate change. Statistically significant increasing trends have been identified for heat waves, temperature inversion and lightning activities over large areas around the world. Global models are combined with statistical analysis to help us understand these changes as well as their implications for atmospheric composition and air quality in the past and future decades.

  12. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  13. An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

  14. Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species.

    PubMed

    Overgaard, Johannes; Kearney, Michael R; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2014-06-01

    Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid-latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002-2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species' functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we

  15. Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2010-12-01

    Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

  16. Historical influence of irrigation on climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-04-01

    Land irrigation is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that land irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. However, a thorough understanding of the impact of irrigation on extreme climatic conditions, such as heat waves, droughts or intense precipitation, is currently still lacking. In this context, we aim to assess the historical influence of irrigation on the occurrence of climate extremes. To this end, two simulations are conducted over the period 1910-2010 with a state-of-the-art global climate model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM): a control simulation including all major anthropogenic and natural external forcings except for irrigation and a second experiment with transient irrigation enabled. The two simulations are evaluated for their ability to represent (i) hot, dry and wet extremes using the HadEX2 and ERA-Interim datasets as a reference, and (ii) latent heat fluxes using LandFlux-EVAL. Assuming a linear combination of climatic responses to different forcings, the difference between both experiments approximates the influence of irrigation. We will analyse the impact of irrigation on a number of climate indices reflecting the intensity and duration of heat waves. Thereby, particular attention is given to the role of soil moisture changes in modulating climate extremes. Furthermore, the contribution of individual biogeophysical processes to the total impact of irrigation on hot extremes is quantified by application of a surface energy balance decomposition technique to the 90th and 99th percentile surface temperature changes.

  17. Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

    It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood

  18. Data informatics for the Detection, Characterization, and Attribution of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; O'Brien, T. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Krishnan, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Prabhat, M.

    2015-12-01

    The potential for increasing frequency and intensity of extremephenomena including downpours, heat waves, and tropical cyclonesconstitutes one of the primary risks of climate change for society andthe environment. The challenge of characterizing these risks is thatextremes represent the "tails" of distributions of atmosphericphenomena and are, by definition, highly localized and typicallyrelatively transient. Therefore very large volumes of observationaldata and projections of future climate are required to quantify theirproperties in a robust manner. Massive data analytics are required inorder to detect individual extremes, accumulate statistics on theirproperties, quantify how these statistics are changing with time, andattribute the effects of anthropogenic global warming on thesestatistics. We describe examples of the suite of techniques the climate communityis developing to address these analytical challenges. The techniquesinclude massively parallel methods for detecting and trackingatmospheric rivers and cyclones; data-intensive extensions togeneralized extreme value theory to summarize the properties ofextremes; and multi-model ensembles of hindcasts to quantify theattributable risk of anthropogenic influence on individual extremes.We conclude by highlighting examples of these methods developed by ourCASCADE (Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, andDetection of Extremes) project.

  19. When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, Simone; Marchese, Andrea F.; Sillmann, J.; Immé, Giuseppina

    2016-05-01

    Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. In the upcoming decades the occurrence of longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves could have a strong impact on human mortality and crop production. Here, by applying the heat wave magnitude index daily to temperature reanalysis data, we quantify the magnitude and the spatial extent of the most extreme heat waves experienced in Africa between 1979 and October 2015 across different seasons. Results show that in the recent years Africa experienced hotter, longer and more extent heat waves than in the last two decades of the 20th century. In the future, 50% of regional climateprojections suggest that heat waves that are unusual under present climate conditions will occur on a regular basis by 2040 under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario (i.e. RCP8.5).

  20. Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different

  1. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    PubMed

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure. PMID:26900120

  2. Extremal entanglement witnesses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Leif Ove; Hauge, Andreas; Myrheim, Jan; Sollid, Per Øyvind

    2015-02-01

    We present a study of extremal entanglement witnesses on a bipartite composite quantum system. We define the cone of witnesses as the dual of the set of separable density matrices, thus TrΩρ≥0 when Ω is a witness and ρ is a pure product state, ρ=ψψ† with ψ=ϕ⊗χ. The set of witnesses of unit trace is a compact convex set, uniquely defined by its extremal points. The expectation value f(ϕ,χ)=TrΩρ as a function of vectors ϕ and χ is a positive semidefinite biquadratic form. Every zero of f(ϕ,χ) imposes strong real-linear constraints on f and Ω. The real and symmetric Hessian matrix at the zero must be positive semidefinite. Its eigenvectors with zero eigenvalue, if such exist, we call Hessian zeros. A zero of f(ϕ,χ) is quadratic if it has no Hessian zeros, otherwise it is quartic. We call a witness quadratic if it has only quadratic zeros, and quartic if it has at least one quartic zero. A main result we prove is that a witness is extremal if and only if no other witness has the same, or a larger, set of zeros and Hessian zeros. A quadratic extremal witness has a minimum number of isolated zeros depending on dimensions. If a witness is not extremal, then the constraints defined by its zeros and Hessian zeros determine all directions in which we may search for witnesses having more zeros or Hessian zeros. A finite number of iterated searches in random directions, by numerical methods, leads to an extremal witness which is nearly always quadratic and has the minimum number of zeros. We discuss briefly some topics related to extremal witnesses, in particular the relation between the facial structures of the dual sets of witnesses and separable states. We discuss the relation between extremality and optimality of witnesses, and a conjecture of separability of the so-called structural physical approximation (SPA) of an optimal witness. Finally, we discuss how to treat the entanglement witnesses on a complex Hilbert space as a subset of the

  3. Extreme black hole holography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, Thomas Edward

    The connection between black holes in four dimensions and conformal field theories (CFTs) in two dimensions is explored, focusing on zero temperature (extreme) black holes and their low-temperature cousins. It is shown that extreme black holes in a theory of quantum gravity are holographically dual to field theories living in two dimensions without gravity, and that the field theory reproduces a variety of black hole phenomena in detail. The extreme black hole/CFT correspondence is derived from a symmetry analysis near the horizon of a Kerr black hole with mass M and maximal angular momentum J=M 2. The asymptotic symmetry generators form one copy of the Virasoro algebra with central charge c=12J, which implies that the near-horizon quantum states are identical to those of a two-dimensional CFT. We discuss extensions of this result to near-extreme black holes and cosmological horizons. Astrophysical black holes are never exactly extremal, but the black hole GRS1915+105 observed through X-ray and radio telescopy is likely within 1% of the extremal spin, suggesting that this extraordinary and well studied object is approximately dual to a two-dimensional CFT with c˜1079. As evidence for the correspondence, microstate counting in the CFT is used to derive the Bekenstein-Hawking area law for the Kerr entropy, S=Horizon area/4. Furthermore, the correlators in the dual CFT are shown to reproduce the scattering amplitudes of a charged scalar or spin-½ field by a near-extreme Kerr-Newman black hole, and a neutral spin-1 or spin-2 field by a near-extreme Kerr black hole. Scattering amplitudes probe the vacuum of fields living on the black hole background. For scalars, bound superradiant modes lead to an instability, while for fermions, it is shown that the bound superradiant modes condense and form a Fermi sea which extends well outside the ergosphere. Assuming no further instabilities, the low energy effective theory near the black hole is described by ripples in the

  4. Impact of climate change on European weather extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duchez, Aurelie; Forryan, Alex; Hirschi, Joel; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian; Freychet, Nicolas; Scaife, Adam; Graham, Tim

    2015-04-01

    An emerging science consensus is that global climate change will result in more extreme weather events with concomitant increasing financial losses. Key questions that arise are: Can an upward trend in natural extreme events be recognised and predicted at the European scale? What are the key drivers within the climate system that are changing and making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense, or both? Using state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations from the UK Met Office (HadGEM3-GC2, historical and future scenario runs) as well as reanalysis data, we highlight the potential of the currently most advanced forecasting systems to progress understanding of the causative drivers of European weather extremes, and assess future frequency and intensity of extreme weather under various climate change scenarios. We characterize European extremes in these simulations using a subset of the 27 core indices for temperature and precipitation from The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Tank et al., 2009). We focus on temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g. extremes in daily and monthly precipitation and temperatures) and relate them to the atmospheric modes of variability over Europe in order to establish the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events. Klein Tank, Albert M.G., and Francis W. Zwiers. Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500. Climate Data and Monitoring. World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

  5. Hydrological extremes and security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Matczak, P.

    2015-04-01

    Economic losses caused by hydrological extremes - floods and droughts - have been on the rise. Hydrological extremes jeopardize human security and impact on societal livelihood and welfare. Security can be generally understood as freedom from threat and the ability of societies to maintain their independent identity and their functional integrity against forces of change. Several dimensions of security are reviewed in the context of hydrological extremes. The traditional interpretation of security, focused on the state military capabilities, has been replaced by a wider understanding, including economic, societal and environmental aspects that get increasing attention. Floods and droughts pose a burden and serious challenges to the state that is responsible for sustaining economic development, and societal and environmental security. The latter can be regarded as the maintenance of ecosystem services, on which a society depends. An important part of it is water security, which can be defined as the availability of an adequate quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies. Security concerns arise because, over large areas, hydrological extremes - floods and droughts - are becoming more frequent and more severe. In terms of dealing with water-related risks, climate change can increase uncertainties, which makes the state's task to deliver security more difficult and more expensive. However, changes in population size and development, and level of protection, drive exposure to hydrological hazards.

  6. Going to Extremes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coy, Mary

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the author describes a project which gave students a chance to explore the idea of using "extreme" materials in a sculpture. While the process was, at times, challenging and stressful for teacher and student alike, the results proved that, with proper planning, even young students can independently demonstrate multiple solutions…

  7. Climate Extremes and Society

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, Philip

    2009-10-01

    In October 2005, as the United States still was reeling from Hurricane Katrina in August and as the alphabet was too short to contain all of that year's named Atlantic tropical storms (Hurricane Wilma was forming near Jamaica), a timely workshop in Bermuda focused on climate extremes and society (see Eos, 87(3), 25, 17 January 2006). This edited volume, which corresponds roughly to the presentations given at that workshop, offers a fascinating look at the critically important intersection of acute climate stress and human vulnerabilities. A changing climate affects humans and other living things not through the variable that most robustly demonstrates the role of rising greenhouse gases—globally averaged temperature—but through local changes, especially changes in extremes. The first part of this book, “Defining and modeling the nature of weather and climate extremes,” focuses on natural science. The second part, “Impacts of weather and climate extremes,” focuses on societal impacts and responses, emphasizing an insurance industry perspective because a primary sponsor of the workshop was the Risk Prediction Initiative, whose aim is to “support scientific research on topics of interest to its sponsors” (p. 320).

  8. Optimization using Extremal Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boettcher, Stefan

    2001-03-01

    We explore a new heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to NP-hard optimization problems which we have recently introduced [see ``Nature's Way of Optimizing," Artificial Intelligence 119, 275-286 (2000) and cond-mat/0010337]. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively replaces extremely undesirable elements of a single sub-optimal solution with new, random ones. Large fluctuations ensue that efficiently explore many local optima. With only one adjustable parameter, its performance has proved competitive with more elaborate methods, especially near phase transitions which are believed to contain the hardest instances. In particular, extremal optimization is superior to simulated annealing in the partitioning of sparse graphs, it finds the overlap of all ground-states at the phase transition of the 3-coloring problem, and it provides independent confirmation for the ground-state energy of spin glasses, previously obtained with elaborate genetic algorithms.

  9. Futures Conditional.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Theobald, Robert

    The readings presented here are designed to help the reader perceive the future more vividly. Part one of the book suggests the various ways in which the future can be seen; it includes science fiction and the views of various analysts as to what the future holds. Part two collects printed materials about the future from various sources, including…

  10. Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1961 to 2100: projected changes in mean temperature and future heat waves characterization (with a statistical evaluation of RCMs local performance)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Russo, Aniello

    2014-05-01

    Marche region (central Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea) climate dynamics are connected to the Mediterranean basin, identified as one of the most sensitive areas to ongoing climate change. Taken into account difficulties to carry out an overarching assessment over the heterogeneous Mediterranean climate-change issues frame, we opted toward a consistent regional bordered study. Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature, with an introductory multi-statistical model performance evaluation and a future heat waves intensity and duration characterization, are here presented. Multi-model projections over Marche Region, on daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research Institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations from 1961 to 2100 refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km. Furthermore, two RCMs outputs from Med-CORDEX project, with a higher horizontal resolution (12km x 12km) and boundary conditions provided by the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Observed daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over Marche region domain have been extracted from E-OBS gridded data set (Version 9.0) referring to the period 1970-2004. This twofold work firstly provides a concise statistical summary of how well employed RCMs reproduce observed (1970-2004) mean temperature over Marche region in term of correlation, root-mean-square difference, and ratio of their variances, graphically displayed on a 2D-Taylor diagram. This multi-statistical model performance evaluation easily allows: - to compare the agreement with observation of the 9 individual RCMs - to compare RCMs with different horizontal resolution (12 km and 25 km) - to evaluate the improvement provided by the RCMs ensemble. Results indicate that the 9 RCMs ensemble

  11. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-01

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level. PMID:26694445

  12. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord Gi index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord Gi index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level. PMID:26694445

  13. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy and the recent floods in Thailand have demonstrated not only how sensitive the urban environment is to the impact of severe weather, but also the associated global reach of the ramifications. These, together with other growing extreme weather impacts and the increasing interdependence of global commercial activities point towards a growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership brings academia, industry and government together with the goals encouraging joint activities aimed at developing new, robust, and well-communicated responses to this increasing vulnerability. Integral to the approach is the concept of 'graceful failure' in which flexible designs are adopted that protect against failure by combining engineering or network strengths with a plan for efficient and rapid recovery if and when they fail. Such an approach enables optimal planning for both known future scenarios and their assessed uncertainty.

  14. THE EXTREME HOSTS OF EXTREME SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect

    Neill, James D.; Quimby, Robert; Ofek, Eran; Wyder, Ted K.; Martin, D. Christopher; Barlow, Tom A.; Foster, Karl; Friedman, Peter G.; Morrissey, Patrick; Sullivan, Mark; Gal-Yam, Avishay; Howell, D. Andrew; Nugent, Peter; Seibert, Mark; Overzier, Roderik; Neff, Susan G.; Schiminovich, David; Bianchi, Luciana; Donas, Jose; Heckman, Timothy M.

    2011-01-20

    We use GALEX ultraviolet (UV) and optical integrated photometry of the hosts of 17 luminous supernovae (LSNe, having peak M{sub V} < -21) and compare them to a sample of 26, 000 galaxies from a cross-match between the SDSS DR4 spectral catalog and GALEX interim release 1.1. We place the LSN hosts on the galaxy NUV - r versus M{sub r} color-magnitude diagram (CMD) with the larger sample to illustrate how extreme they are. The LSN hosts appear to favor low-density regions of the galaxy CMD falling on the blue edge of the blue cloud toward the low-luminosity end. From the UV-optical photometry, we estimate the star formation history of the LSN hosts. The hosts have moderately low star formation rates (SFRs) and low stellar masses (M{sub *}) resulting in high specific star formation rates (sSFR). Compared with the larger sample, the LSN hosts occupy low-density regions of a diagram plotting sSFR versus M{sub *} in the area having higher sSFR and lower M{sub *}. This preference for low M{sub *}, high sSFR hosts implies that the LSNe are produced by an effect having to do with their local environment. The correlation of mass with metallicity suggests that perhaps wind-driven mass loss is the factor that prevents LSNe from arising in higher-mass, higher-metallicity hosts. The massive progenitors of the LSNe (>100 M{sub sun}), by appearing in low-SFR hosts, are potential tests for theories of the initial mass function that limit the maximum mass of a star based on the SFR.

  15. Closing the Gap on Measuring Heat Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perkins, S. E.; Alexander, L.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 4th IPCC assessment report, the scientific literature has established that anthropogenic climate change encompasses adverse changes in both mean climate conditions and extreme events, such as heat waves. Indeed, the affects of heat waves are felt across many different sectors, and have high economic, human, and physical impacts over many global regions. The spatial and monetary scale of heat wave impacts emphasizes the necessity of measuring and studying such events in an informative manner, which gives justice to the geographical region affected, the communities impacted, and the climatic fields involved. However, due to such wide interest in heat waves, their definition remains broad in describing a period of consecutive days where conditions are excessively hotter than normal. This has allowed for the employment of a plethora of metrics, which are usually unique to a given sector, or do not appropriately describe some of the important features of heat wave events. As such, it is difficult to ascertain a clear message regarding changes in heat waves, both in the observed record and in projections of future climate. This study addresses this issue by developing a multi-index, multi-aspect framework in which to measure heat waves. The methodology was constructed by assessing a wide range of heat wave and heat wave-related indices, both proposed and employed in the scientific literature. The broad implications of the occurrences, frequency and duration of heat waves and respective changes were also highly considered. The resulting indices measure three or more consecutive days where 1) maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile (TX90pct); 2) minimum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile (TN90pct); and 3) daily average temperature has a positive excess heat factor (EHF). The 90th percentiles from which TX90pct and TN90pct are calculated are based on 15-day windows for each calendar day, whereas the EHF is based upon two pre-calculated indices that

  16. The ClimaGrowing Footprint of Climate Change: Can Systems Built Today Cope with Tomorrow's Weather Extremes?

    SciTech Connect

    Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW; Kraucunas, Ian P.

    2013-07-11

    This article describes how current climate conditions--with increasingly extreme storms, droughts, and heat waves and their ensuing effects on water quality and levels--are adding stress to an already aging power grid. Moreover, it explains how evaluations of said grid, built upon past weather patterns, are inaqeduate for measuring if the nation's energy systems can cope with future climate changes. The authors make the case for investing in the development of robust, integrated electricity planning tools that account for these climate change factors as a means for enhancing electricity infrastructure resilience.

  17. Multimodel Combination of Extreme Precipitation Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz Madsen, Bo; Ditlevsen, Peter; Feng, Tao

    2015-04-01

    This study seeks to combine projections of extreme precipitation from several RCMs into one single projection. Ensembles of models are increasingly used in climate science. Combining information from several models is a non-trivial task. Most often the models are averaged with equal weights, i.e. "one model, one vote". We seek a combination of models that exploits the strengths of each model. Here we fit a bayesian spatial model (BSM) to the extremes in Denmark, both with data from observations and from RCMs. The parameters of the different BSMs are compared to evaluate the RCMs ability to represent extreme precipitation in Denmark. A BSM is also fitted to future RCM projections in the time periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The parameters of the BSM from each RCM are weighted with respect to that RCM's internal variability, consensus with other RCMs, the variability of the real climate and the collective deviation of all RCMs from reality. With this weighting the combined BSM projects the future extremes on the basis of all the models.

  18. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  19. Extremal quantum cloning machines

    SciTech Connect

    Chiribella, G.; D'Ariano, G. M.; Perinotti, P.; Cerf, N.J.

    2005-10-15

    We investigate the problem of cloning a set of states that is invariant under the action of an irreducible group representation. We then characterize the cloners that are extremal in the convex set of group covariant cloning machines, among which one can restrict the search for optimal cloners. For a set of states that is invariant under the discrete Weyl-Heisenberg group, we show that all extremal cloners can be unitarily realized using the so-called double-Bell states, whence providing a general proof of the popular ansatz used in the literature for finding optimal cloners in a variety of settings. Our result can also be generalized to continuous-variable optimal cloning in infinite dimensions, where the covariance group is the customary Weyl-Heisenberg group of displacement000.

  20. Effects of extreme weather on human health: methodology review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, R.; Liss, A.; Naumova, E. N.

    2012-12-01

    This work critically evaluates current methodology applied to estimate the effects of extreme weather events (EWE) on human health. Specifically, we focus on uncertainties associated with: a) the main statistical approaches for estimating the effects of EWE, b) definitions of health outcomes and EWE, and c) possible sources of errors and biases in currently available data sets. The EWE, which include heat waves, cold spells, ice storms, flood, drought and tornadoes, are known for their massive effects on ecosystems, economies, infrastructures. In particular, human lives and health are frequently impacted by EWE; however, the estimate of such effects is complex and lacks a systematic methodology. An accurate and reliable estimate of health impacts is critical for developing preparedness and effective prevention strategies, better allocating scarce resources for mitigating negative impacts of EWE, and detecting vulnerable populations and regions in a timely manner. We reviewed 82 manuscripts published between 1993 and 2011, selected from MedPub and Medline databases using predetermined sets of keywords, such as extreme weather, mortality, morbidity and hospitalization. We classified publications based on their geographical locations, types of included health outcomes, methods for detecting EWE and statistical methodology employed to determine the presence and magnitude of EWE associated health outcomes. We determined that 57% of the reviewed manuscripts applied time-series analysis and the associations analysis and were conducted in temperate regions of the US, Canada, Korea, Japan and Europe respectively. About 60% of reviewed studies focused primarily on mortality data, 30% on morbidity outcomes and 9% studied both mortality and morbidity with respect to direct effects of extreme heat waves and cold spells. A wide range of EWE definitions were employed in those manuscripts, which limited the ability to compare the results to a certain degree. We observed at least

  1. Heat Waves

    MedlinePlus

    Heat Waves Dangers we face during periods of very high temperatures include: Heat cramps: These are muscular pains and spasms due ... that the body is having trouble with the heat. If a heat wave is predicted or happening… - ...

  2. Rehabilitation in extremity fractures.

    PubMed

    Moskowitz, E

    1975-03-01

    General principles in the rehabilitation of a patient with an extremity fracture include: treat the patient, not the x-ray; move all joints not immobilized; prevent disuse atrophy; use gravity to assist in mobilizing a joint; stabilize proximal joints to avoid reverse action of biarticular muscles; permit early protected weight bearing until adequate joint mobility is achieved; appropriately instruct the patient in a home program, and avoid all stretching. PMID:1114932

  3. Penetrating extremity trauma.

    PubMed

    Ivatury, Rao R; Anand, Rahul; Ordonez, Carlos

    2015-06-01

    Penetrating extremity trauma (PET) usually becomes less important when present along with multiple truncal injuries. The middle eastern wars documented the terrible mortality and morbidity resulting from PET. Even in civilian trauma, PET can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. There are now well-established principles in the evaluation and management of vascular, bony, soft tissue, and neurologic lesions that will lead to a reduction of the poor outcomes. This review will summarize some of these recent concepts. PMID:25413177

  4. On extreme geomagnetic storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cid, Consuelo; Palacios, Judith; Saiz, Elena; Guerrero, Antonio; Cerrato, Yolanda

    2014-10-01

    Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

  5. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    PubMed

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

  6. Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings

    PubMed Central

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

  7. Addressing Extremes within the WCRP - GEWEX Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Oevelen, P. J.; Stewart, R.; Detemmerman, V.

    2008-12-01

    For large international coordination programs such as the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) it is difficult to strike a good balance between enabling as much international involvement as is possible and desirable and the achievability of the objectives. WCRP has decided that "Extremes Research" is one of several areas where it would like to see its efforts strengthened and scientific research pushed forward. The foci that are being selected should be phrased such that they are practical and achievable within a time span of 1 to 3 years. Preferably these foci build upon the expertise from cross WCRP activities and are not restricted to single core project activities. In this presentation an overview will be given of the various activities within GEWEX that are related to extremes and which ones would be most ideal to be addressed as WCRP foci from a GEWEX perspective. The rationale and context of extreme research will be presented as well links to other national and international programs. "Extremes Research" as a topic is attractive since it has a high societal relevance and impact. However, numerous definitions of extremes exist and they are being used in widely varying contexts making it not always clear of what exactly is being addressed. This presentation will give an outlook on what can be expected research wise in the near future based upon the outcomes of the Extremes Workshop organised last June in Vancouver in the context of the Coordinated Energy and water cycle Observations Project (CEOP) as part of GEWEX. In particular it will be shown how these activities, which will only address certain types of extremes, can be linked to adaptation and mitigation efforts taking place in other organisations and by national and international bodies.

  8. Eukaryotic diversity at pH extremes

    PubMed Central

    Amaral-Zettler, Linda A.

    2013-01-01

    Extremely acidic (pH < 3) and extremely alkaline (pH > 9) environments support a diversity of single-cell and to a lesser extent, multicellular eukaryotic life. This study compared alpha and beta diversity in eukaryotic communities from seven diverse aquatic environments with pH values ranging from 2 to 11 using massively-parallel pyrotag sequencing targeting the V9 hypervariable region of the 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene. A total of 946 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were recovered at a 6% cut-off level (94% similarity) across the sampled environments. Hierarchical clustering of the samples segregated the communities into acidic and alkaline groups. Similarity percentage (SIMPER) analysis followed by indicator OTU analysis (IOA) and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) were used to determine which characteristic groups of eukaryotic taxa typify acidic or alkaline extremes and the extent to which pH explains eukaryotic community structure in these environments. Spain's Rio Tinto yielded the fewest observed OTUs while Nebraska Sandhills alkaline lakes yielded the most. Distinct OTUs, including metazoan OTUs, numerically dominated pH extreme sites. Indicator OTUs included the diatom Pinnularia and unidentified opisthokonts (Fungi and Filasterea) in the extremely acidic environments, and the ciliate Frontonia across the extremely alkaline sites. Inferred from NMDS, pH explained only a modest fraction of the variation across the datasets, indicating that other factors influence the underlying community structure in these environments. The findings from this study suggest that the ability for eukaryotes to adapt to pH extremes over a broad range of values may be rare, but further study of taxa that can broadly adapt across diverse acidic and alkaline environments, respectively present good models for understanding adaptation and should be targeted for future investigations. PMID:23335919

  9. NLDAS Views of North American 2011 Extreme Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rui, Hualan; Teng, William L.; Vollmer, Bruce; Mocko, David; Lei, Guang-Dih

    2014-01-01

    2011 was marked as one of the most extreme years in recent history. Over the course of the year, weather-related extreme events, such as floods, heat waves, blizzards, tornadoes, and wildfires, caused tremendous loss of human life and property. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http:ldas.gsfc.nasa.govnldas) data set, with high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.125 x 0.125, hourly) and various water- and energy-related variables, is an excellent data source for case studies of extreme events. This presentation illustrates some extreme events from 2011 in North America, including the Groundhog Day Blizzard, the July heat wave, Hurricane Irene, and Tropical Storm Lee, all utilizing NLDAS Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) data.

  10. NLDAS Views of North American 2011 Extreme Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rui, Hualan; Teng, William; Vollmer, Bruce; Mocko, David; Lei, Guang-Dih

    2012-01-01

    2011 was marked as one of the most extreme years in recent history. Over the course of the year, weather-related extreme events, such as floods, heat waves, blizzards, tornadoes, and wildfires, caused tremendous loss of human life and property. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/) data set, with high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.125? x 0.125?, hourly) and various water- and energy-related variables, is an excellent data source for case studies of extreme events. This presentation illustrates some extreme events from 2011 in North America, including the Groundhog Day Blizzard, the July heat wave, Hurricane Irene, and Tropical Storm Lee, all utilizing NLDAS Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) data.

  11. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    , with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

  12. Changes of western European heat wave characteristics projected by the CMIP5 ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoetter, Robert; Cattiaux, Julien; Douville, Hervé

    2015-09-01

    We investigate heat waves defined as periods of at least 3 consecutive days of extremely high daily maximum temperature affecting at least 30 % of western Europe. This definition has been chosen to select heat waves that might impact western European electricity supply. Even though not all such heat waves threaten it, the definition allows to identify a sufficient number of events, the strongest being potentially harmful. The heat waves are characterised by their duration, spatial extent, intensity and severity. The heat wave characteristics are calculated for historical and future climate based on results of climate model simulations conducted during the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The uncertainty of future anthropogenic forcing is taken into account by analysing results for the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The historical simulations are evaluated against the EOBS gridded station data. The CMIP5 ensemble median captures well the observed mean heat wave characteristics. However, no model simulates a heat wave as severe as observed during August 2003. Under future climate conditions, the heat waves become more frequent and have higher mean duration, extent and intensity. The ensemble spread is larger than the scenario uncertainty. The shift of the temperature distribution is more important for the increase of the cumulative heat wave severity than the broadening of the temperature distribution. However, the broadening leads to an amplification of the cumulative heat wave severity by a factor of 1.7 for RCP4.5 and 1.5 for RCP8.5.

  13. Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants

    PubMed Central

    Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

  14. Mineralogy under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Shu, Jinfu

    2012-02-07

    We have performed measurements of minerals based on the synchrotron source for single crystal and powder X-ray diffraction, inelastic scattering, spectroscopy and radiography by using diamond anvil cells. We investigated the properties of iron (Fe), iron-magnesium oxides (Fe, Mg)O, silica(SiO{sub 2}), iron-magnesium silicates (Fe, Mg)SiO{sub 3} under simulated high pressure-high temperature extreme conditions of the Earth's crust, upper mantle, low mantle, core-mantle boundary, outer core, and inner core. The results provide a new window on the investigation of the mineral properties at Earth's conditions.

  15. Plasma Sloshing in Pulse-heated Solar and Stellar Coronal Loops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reale, F.

    2016-08-01

    There is evidence that coronal heating is highly intermittent, and flares are the high energy extreme. The properties of the heat pulses are difficult to constrain. Here, hydrodynamic loop modeling shows that several large amplitude oscillations (˜20% in density) are triggered in flare light curves if the duration of the heat pulse is shorter than the sound crossing time of the flaring loop. The reason for this is that the plasma does not have enough time to reach pressure equilibrium during heating, and traveling pressure fronts develop. The period is a few minutes for typical solar coronal loops, dictated by the sound crossing time in the decay phase. The long period and large amplitude make these oscillations different from typical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. This diagnostic can be applied both to observations of solar and stellar flares and to future observations of non-flaring loops at high resolution.

  16. Plasma Sloshing in Pulse-heated Solar and Stellar Coronal Loops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reale, F.

    2016-08-01

    There is evidence that coronal heating is highly intermittent, and flares are the high energy extreme. The properties of the heat pulses are difficult to constrain. Here, hydrodynamic loop modeling shows that several large amplitude oscillations (∼20% in density) are triggered in flare light curves if the duration of the heat pulse is shorter than the sound crossing time of the flaring loop. The reason for this is that the plasma does not have enough time to reach pressure equilibrium during heating, and traveling pressure fronts develop. The period is a few minutes for typical solar coronal loops, dictated by the sound crossing time in the decay phase. The long period and large amplitude make these oscillations different from typical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. This diagnostic can be applied both to observations of solar and stellar flares and to future observations of non-flaring loops at high resolution.

  17. Extremely Luminous Far-infrared Sources (ELFS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harwit, Martin; Houck, James R.; Soifer, B. Thomas; Palumbo, Giorgio G. C.

    1987-01-01

    The Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) survey uncovered a class of Extremely Luminous Far Infrared Sources (ELFS), exhibiting luminosities up to and occasionally exceeding 10 to the 12th power L sub 0. Arguments are presented to show that sources with luminosities L equal to or greater than 3 x 10 to the 10th power L sub 0 may represent gas rich galaxies in collision. The more conventional explanation of these sources as sites of extremely active star formation fails to explain the observed low optical luminosities of ELFS as well as their high infrared excess. In contrast, a collisional model heats gas to a temperature of approx. 10 to the 6th power K where cooling takes place in the extreme ultraviolet. The UV is absorbed by dust and converted into far infrared radiation (FIR) without generation of appreciable optical luminosity. Gas recombination as it cools generates a Lyman alpha photon only once for every two extreme ultraviolet approx. 50eV photons emitted by the 10 to the 6th power gas. That accounts for the high infrared excess. Finally, the model also is able to explain the observed luminosity distribution of ELFS as well as many other traits.

  18. Union Agency Lecture: Predicting and Managing Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubchenco, J.

    2011-12-01

    From tsunamis to tornadoes to hurricanes, floods, droughts, and heat waves, 2011 has been a year of extreme events reminding us of the vulnerability of the nation's communities to such events and the need to enhance our ability to anticipate and mitigate impacts of extreme events. Among its many roles, NOAA is responsible for providing critical environmental intelligence to the nation. To deliver this intelligence, we observe, monitor, and forecast environmental changes, including extreme events. The different time horizons for different types of extreme events require different observing, analytical and modeling approaches. Short-fuse events such as tornadoes, heavy rainfall, and solar storms present different challenges from those whose development can be tracked: hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, extended flooding, hypoxia, or dispersion of volcanic ash, wildfire smoke or oil following a spill. Occurrence of compound or cascading events, such as heat, drought, and poor air quality, add complexity to our ability to predict. Recent extreme events not only challenge us to improve monitoring and forecasting abilities, but also to improve capabilities to deliver credible and actionable information widely. This talk discusses some of the larger scientific, technological, and social science challenges in predicting and reducing impacts from extreme events.

  19. Representing Extreme Temperature Events and Resolving Their Implications for Yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huybers, P. J.; Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Although it is well recognized that extreme temperatures occurring at particular growth stages are destructive to yield, there appears substantial scope for improved empirical assessment and simulation of the relationship between temperature and yield. Several anecdotes are discussed. First, a statistical analysis of historical U.S. extreme temperatures is provided. It is demonstrated that both reanalysis and model simulations significantly differ from near-surface temperature observations in the frequency and magnitude of extremes. This finding supports empirical assessment using near-surface instrumental records and underscores present difficulties in simulating past and predicting future changes. Second, an analysis of the implications of extreme temperatures on U.S. maize yield is provided where the response is resolved regionally and according to growth stage. Sensitivity to extreme temperatures during silking is found to be uniformly high across the U.S., but the response during grain filling varies spatially, with higher sensitivity in the North. This regional and growth-stage dependent sensitivity implies the importance of representing cultivar, planting times, and development rates, and is also indicative of the potential for future changes according to the combined effects of climate and technology. Finally, interaction between extreme temperatures and agriculture is indicated by analysis showing that historical extreme temperatures in the U.S. Midwest have cooled in relation to changes in regional productivity, possibly because of greater potential for cooling through evapotranspiration. This interpretation is consistent with changes in crop physiology and management, though also noteworthy is that the moderating influence of increased evapotranspiration on extreme temperatures appears to be lost during severe drought. Together, these findings indicate that a more accurate assessment of the historical relationship between extreme temperatures and yield

  20. Solar extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, Hugh S.

    2015-08-01

    Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of “extreme events,” defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative measures, this direct information does not extend more than a century and a half into the recent past. The magnitude distributions (occurrence frequencies) of solar events (flares/CMEs) typically decrease with the parameter measured or inferred (peak flux, mass, energy etc. Flare radiation fluxes tend to follow a power law slightly flatter than S-2, where S represents a peak flux; solar particle events (SPEs) follow a still flatter power law up to a limiting magnitude, and then appear to roll over to a steeper distribution, which may take an exponential form or follow a broken power law. This inference comes from the terrestrial 14C record and from the depth dependence of various radioisotope proxies in the lunar regolith and in meteorites. Recently major new observational results have impacted our use of the relatively limited historical record in new ways: the detection of actual events in the 14C tree-ring records, and the systematic observations of flares and “superflares” by the Kepler spacecraft. I discuss how these new findings may affect our understanding of the distribution function expected for extreme solar events.

  1. "Triangular" extremal dilatonic dyons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gal'tsov, Dmitri; Khramtsov, Mikhail; Orlov, Dmitri

    2015-04-01

    Explicit dyonic solutions in four-dimensional Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton theory are known only for three particular values of the dilaton coupling constant: a = 0 , 1 ,√{ 3}. However, numerical evidence was presented on existence of dyons admitting an extremal limit in theories with more general sequence of dilaton couplings a =√{ n (n + 1) / 2 } labeled by an integer n. Apart from the lower members n = 0 , 1 , 2, this family of theories does not have motivation from supergravity/string theory, and analytical origin of the above sequence remained unclear so far. We fill the gap showing that this formula follows from analyticity of the dilaton function at the AdS2 ×S2 event horizon of the extremal dyonic black hole, with n being the leading dilaton power in the Taylor expansion. We also derive generalization of this rule for asymptotically anti-de Sitter dyonic black holes with spherical, planar and hyperbolic topology of the horizon.

  2. Hydrometeorological Extremes and Food Security: Lessons from the 2011 and 2012 harvests in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobell, D. B.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    The United States is both a major global producer of grain and a relatively variable production region. As such, it is an important driver of volatility in global food supply and food prices, which in turn affects food security in many regions. This fact was underscored by the 2012 season, in which a major drought caused production losses, which in turn led to international price increases. However, 2011 also was unusually hot and thus a good illustration of many of the issues surrounding climate change. This paper will discuss progress in modeling the impacts of extreme heat and drought on U.S. corn production, which comes from a combination of empirical and process-based approaches. One important lesson is that drought from the perspective of corn is different than traditional measures of drought, and in particular extreme heat plays a more direct role via effects on vapor pressure deficit. Implications for future impacts, interactions with carbon dioxide, and potential adaptation strategies will be discussed.

  3. Heat Without Heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubkin, Elihu

    1997-04-01

    Logic of the Second Law of Thermodynamics demands acquisition of naked entropy. Accordingly, the leanest liaison between systems is not a diathermic membrane, it is a purely informational tickler, leaking no appreciable energy. The subsystem here is a thermodynamic universe, which gets `heated' entropically, yet without gaining calories. Quantum Mechanics graciously supports that(Lubkin, E. and Lubkin, T., International Journal of Theoretical Physics,32), 933-943 (1993) (at a cost of about 1 bit) through entanglement---across this least permeable of membranes---with what is beyond that universe. Heat without heat(Also v. forthcoming Proceedings of the 4th Drexel University Conference of September 1994) is the aspirin for Boltzmann's headache, conserving entropy in mechanical isolation, even while increasing entropy in thermodynamic isolation.

  4. Identifying future threats: impact of climate change on wheat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator and the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the reduction in grain yield related to drought stress is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering, that affects pollination and might result in considerable yield losses, is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought.

  5. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  6. Extreme temperature and precipitation events in March 2015 in central and northern Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, Bradford S.; Campos, Diego A.; Veloso, José Vicencio; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2016-05-01

    From 18 to 27 March 2015, northern, central, and southern Chile experienced a series of extreme hydrometeorological events. First, the highest surface air temperature ever recorded in Santiago (with reliable records dating to 1877), 36.8°C at Quinta Normal, was measured at 15:47 local time on 20 March 2015. Immediately following this high heat event, an extreme precipitation event, with damaging streamflows from precipitation totals greater than 45 mm, occurred in the semiarid and hyperarid Atacama regions. Finally, concurrent with the heavy precipitation event, extremely warm temperatures were recorded throughout southern Chile. These events were examined from a synoptic perspective with the goal of identifying forcing mechanisms and potential interaction between each analysis which provides operational context by which to identify and predict similar events in the future. Primary findings were as follows: (1) record warm temperatures in central Chile resulted from anomalous lower troposphere ridging and easterly downslope flow, both of which developed in response to an anomalous midtroposphere ridge-trough pattern; (2) a cutoff low with anomalous heights near one standard deviation below normal slowly moved east and was steered ashore near 25°S by circulation around a very strong ridge (anomalies more than 3 standard deviations above normal) centered near 60°S; (3) anomalously high precipitable water content (20 mm above climatological norms) over the Peruvian Bight region was advected southward and eastward ahead of the cutoff low by low-level northwesterly flow, greatly enhancing observed precipitation over northern Chile.

  7. Studying Laser-Induced Spin Currents Using Ultrafast Extreme Ultraviolet Light

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turgut, Emrah

    Next-generation magnetic-memory devices and heat-assisted magnetic-recording applications will require a better understanding of magnetic multilayers and their interactions with optical-laser pulses. In this thesis, by combining the advantages of ultrabroad-band extreme-ultraviolet light including ultrafast time resolution, element selectivity and tabletop easy access, I report three findings in the study of ultrafast magnetization dynamics in itinerant ferromagnets. First, I experimentally prove that the transverse magneto-optical Kerr response with extreme-ultraviolet light has a purely magnetic origin and that our experimental technique is an artifact-free ultrafast magnetic probe. Second, I demonstrate the first ultrafast magnetization enhancement driven by ultrafast spin currents in Ni/Ru/Fe multilayers. Third, I engineer the sample system by choosing either insulating or spin-scattering spacer layers between the Ni and Fe magnetic layers and by structural ordering. Then, I control the competition between ultrafast spin-flip scattering and superdiffusive spin-current mechanisms; either of these processes may to be the dominant mechanism in ultrafast demagnetization. Finally, I report two continuing experiments that are promising for future ultrafast magnetization studies with extreme-ultraviolet sources. These experiments are resonant-magnetic small-angle-scattering and the generation of bright circularly polarized high harmonics accompanied by a demonstration of the first x-ray magnetic circular dichroism with a tabletop system.

  8. Quantifying the US Crop Yield in Response to Extreme Climatic Events from 1948 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The increasingly frequent and severe extreme climatic events (ECEs) under climate changes will negatively affect crop productivity and threat the global food security. Reliable forecast of crop yields response to those ECEs is a prerequisite for developing strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress of quantifying such responses with ecosystem models has been slow. In this study, we first review existing algorithms of yields response to ECEs among major crops (i.e., Corn, Wheat and Soybean) for the United States from a set of process-based crop models. These algorithms are aggregated into four categories of ECEs: drought, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, and frost. Species-specific ECEs thresholds as tipping point of crop yield response curve are examined. Four constraint scalar functions derived for each category of ECEs are then added to an agricultural ecosystem model, CLM-AG, respectively. The revised model is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 to estimate the US major crop yields, and then evaluated with county-level yield statistics from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). We also include MODIS NPP product as a reference for the period 2001-2013. Our study will help to identify gaps in capturing yield response to ECEs with contemporary crop models, and provide a guide on developing the new generation of crop models to account for the effects of more future extreme climate events.

  9. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.

    PubMed

    Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts. PMID:26738594

  10. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

  11. Methane heat transfer investigat