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Sample records for glasgow prognostic score

  1. Clinical Significance of the Glasgow Prognostic Score for Survival after Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

    PubMed

    Eren, Tunc; Burcu, Busra; Tombalak, Ercument; Ozdemir, Tugrul; Leblebici, Metin; Ozemir, Ibrahim Ali; Ziyade, Sedat; Alimoglu, Orhan

    2016-06-01

    Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) has been found to be a useful tool in various cancer types. Our aim was to evaluate the significance of GPS in patients operated on for colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients with CRC who underwent radical resections between April 2010 and January 2015 were retrospectively evaluated. GPS was estimated based on the preoperative measurement of C-reactive protein and serum albumin levels. Data including demographics, laboratory and pathological parameters, surgical outcomes, and late-term follow-up results were analyzed. The study group of 115 patients consisted of 51 (44 %) women and 64 (56 %) men with a median age of 66 (range 32-91) years. The mean follow-up period was 20 (range 7-41) months. Tumor size and wound infection rates were significantly increased in patients with higher GPS (p = 0.019 and p = 0.003, respectively). According to multivariate analyses, CEA and GPS were found to be independent risk factors significantly effecting mortality (p = 0.001 and p = 0.009, respectively). At the end of the late-term follow-up period, it was detected that cancer-specific survival significantly decreased as the GPS increased (p = 0.016). The GPS is a significant prognostic factor in CRC and should be included in the routine preoperative assessment of all surgically treated CRC patients. PMID:26925798

  2. Prognostic significance of modified Glasgow Prognostic Score in patients with non-metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Cho, Dae Sung; Kim, Sun Il; Choo, Seol Ho; Jang, Seok Heun; Ahn, Hyun Soo; Kim, Se Joong

    2016-06-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) as a prognostic factor in patients with non-metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Materials and methods Between June 1994 and July 2012, 469 patients with RCC underwent radical or partial nephrectomy at two hospitals. Among these patients, 65 with non-clear cell type histology and 16 with lymph-node or distant metastasis were excluded. The medical records of the remaining 388 patients were retrospectively reviewed. The mGPS was calculated using a selective combination of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin as previously described. The prognostic significance of various clinicopathological variables including mGPS was analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results Of the total 388 patients, 40 patients (10.3%) developed local recurrence or distant metastasis and 18 patients (4.6%) died of disease during the follow-up period. The univariate analysis identified CRP, mGPS, thrombocytosis, T stage, Fuhrman's nuclear grade and lymphovascular invasion as significant prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The multivariate analysis indicated that mGPS (p < 0.001), T stage (p = 0.024) and lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.046) were independent prognostic factors for RFS, whereas mGPS (p = 0.001) was the only independent prognostic factor for CSS. Conclusions The mGPS is an independent prognostic factor for RFS and CSS in patients with non-metastatic clear cell RCC treated with radical or partial nephrectomy. These findings suggest that mGPS should be used for predicting recurrence or survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy for non-metastatic clear cell RCC. PMID:26878156

  3. [Assessment of Cachexia in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Based on a Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score].

    PubMed

    Matsuzuka, Takashi; Suzuki, Masahiro; Saijoh, Satoshi; Ikeda, Masakazu; Imaizumi, Mitsumasa; Nomoto, Yukio; Matsui, Takamichi; Tada, Yasuhiro; Omori, Koichi

    2016-02-01

    We retrospectively analyzed 54 patients who died of head and neck squamous cell caricinoma regarding the process and duration of cachexia using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS). The patients were classified as having cachexia when the serum albumin level was less than 3.5 mg/dL and the C-reactive protein (CRP) level was more than 0.5 mg/dL. The number of patients with cachexia was eight (8%) at the first visit and 50 (93%) at the time of death. In the 50 patients, the median and average time of having cachexia was 59 and 95 days, respectively. Thirty-two of the 50 patients (64%) died within three months after the presence of cachexia was confirmed. In this study, the time of having cachexia was so short, then the policy of care should be converted from aggressive into supportive in patients classified as having cachexia. mGPS would be an accurate assessment tool for cachexia and ascertain the end stage of head and neck cancer patients. PMID:27149710

  4. Prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score in metastatic colorectal cancer in the era of anti-EGFR therapies.

    PubMed

    Dréanic, Johann; Maillet, Marianne; Dhooge, Marion; Mir, Olivier; Brezault, Catherine; Goldwasser, François; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2013-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), combination of C-reactive protein and albumin, has proven its prognostic value in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients receiving conventional cytotoxic therapy. More recently, anti-EGFR therapies have been validated in mCRC and roll forward the patients' overall survival (OS). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of the GPS in patients receiving anti-EGFR therapy in addition to conventional chemotherapy. From January 2007 to February 2012, consecutive mCRC patients who received 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy plus cetuximab were included in the present analysis. Patients were eligible for the study if they met the following criteria: advanced pathologically proven MCRC, age >18 years, adequate renal function (creatinine clearance >40 ml/min), C-reactive protein and albumin and performance status evaluation before treatment initiation. A total of 49 patients received cetuximab plus 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy (colon, n = 34; rectum, n = 15) and were treated with a median follow-up of 35 months (16.5-74.7). Median age was 48 years old. In addition to cetuximab, patients received oxaliplatin- (n = 34, 60%) or irinotecan (n = 15, 30%)-based chemotherapy. At time of diagnosis, 55, 29 and 16% of patients had a GPS of 0 (n = 27), 1 (n = 14) and 2 (n = 8), respectively. Fifty-five, 29 and 14 % of patients add one, two or ≥3 metastatic sites, respectively. Considering two groups (GPS = 0 and GPS ≥1), median progression-free survivals were significantly different (p = 0.0084). Median OS in the GPS 0, 1 and 2 groups were 38.2, 14 and 12.1 months, respectively (p = 0.0093). The results of the present study confirm that the GPS is still a simple and effective prognostic factor in the era of cetuximab therapy in mCRC patients. PMID:23839775

  5. The predictive and prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score in metastatic colorectal carcinoma patients receiving bevacizumab.

    PubMed

    Maillet, Marianne; Dréanic, Johann; Dhooge, Marion; Mir, Olivier; Brezault, Catherine; Goldwasser, François; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2014-11-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), based on C-reactive protein and albumin levels, has shown its prognostic value in metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) patients receiving conventional cytotoxic therapy. Bevacizumab, a monoclonal antibody to vascular epidermal growth factor, improves the overall survival in mCRC. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of GPS in mCRC patients receiving antivascular epidermal growth factor therapy. From August 2005 to August 2012, consecutive patients with mCRC who received chemotherapy plus bevacizumab were eligible for the present analysis. The clinical stage, C-reactive protein, albumin and the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were recorded at the time of initiation of bevacizumab. Patients received 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy plus bevacizumab in accordance with the digestive oncology multidisciplinary staff proposal and in line with the French recommendations for the treatment of mCRC. Eighty patients were eligible (colon n = 59, rectum n = 21), with a median follow-up of 14 months (range 1-58 months). Chemotherapy given with bevacizumab and 5-fluorouracil was oxaliplatin (n = 41, 51%) or irinotecan (n = 27, 34%). At baseline, 56, 31 and 13% of patients had a GPS of 0 (n = 45), 1 (n = 25) and 2 (n = 10), respectively. The median progression-free survival in these groups was 10.1, 6.5 and 5.6 months (P = 0.16), respectively. The median overall survival was 20.1, 11.4 and 6.5 months, respectively (P = 0.004). Our study confirmed the prognostic value of GPS in mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab. Given the poor survival observed in patients with an GPS of 2, studies dedicated to these patients could identify optimal treatment modalities. PMID:24858536

  6. Preoperative Glasgow prognostic score as a predictor of primary bladder cancer recurrence

    PubMed Central

    YUKSEL, OZGUR HAKI; AKAN, SERKAN; URKMEZ, AHMET; YILDIRIM, CAGLAR; SAHIN, AYTAC; VERIT, AYHAN

    2016-01-01

    The correlation between systemic inflammatory markers and malignancies has been assessed by a number of recent studies. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess preoperative inflammation markers and Glasgow prognostic scores (GPS) in patients who underwent surgery for primary bladder cancer (BC), and evaluate the predictive value of GPS for disease recurrence and progression. A total of 38 patients (mean age, 60.16±9.71 years; range, 33–76 years) who were treated in our department between May, 2014 and August, 2015 were enrolled in the present study. Preoperatively, patient information regarding gender, body mass index, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin levels, GPS and comorbidities, were collected and recorded. Transurethral resection of the bladder was performed, followed by histopathological evaluation of the resected material. The tumor size, stage and grade and the presence of necrosis were determined. According to the international TNM classification, the results of the histopathological analysis were as follows: Ta low- (n=24) and high-grade (n=4); and T1 low- (n=2) and high-grade (n=8). The median follow-up period was 10.1 months (range, 6–12 months). During this period, recurrence was observed in 10 cases and disease progression was detected in 1 patient. Hypoalbuminemia was encountered in 40% of the cases with recurrence, which was significantly higher compared with that in patients without recurrence (7.1%; P=0.031). In patients who had recurrence, a GPS of 1–2 points and tumor necrosis were more frequently detected compared with those without recurrence (60 vs. 7.1%, P=0.002; and 80 vs. 7.1%, P=0.001, respectively). Excluding a cystectomized case with a diagnosis of muscle-invasive BC, disease progression was not detected in any of the cases with recurrence during follow-up. Therefore, we consider that GPS and serum markers of systemic inflammatory response may be used as predictors of recurrence in patients with transitional

  7. The relationship between an inflammation‐based prognostic score (Glasgow Prognostic Score) and changes in serum biochemical variables in patients with advanced lung and gastrointestinal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Brown, D J F; Milroy, R; Preston, T; McMillan, D C

    2007-01-01

    Background The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation‐based prognostic score formed from standard thresholds of C reactive protein (CRP) and albumin, has prognostic value in patients with advanced cancer. Little is known about the general biochemical disturbance associated with the systemic inflammatory response in cancer. Aim To examine the relationship between the GPS and blood biochemistry in patients with advanced lung and gastrointestinal cancer. Methods The GPS (albumin <35 g/l = 1 and CRP >10 mg/l = 1 combined to form a prognostic score of 0 (normal) and 1 or 2 (abnormal)) and a variety of biochemical variables were examined in patients (n = 50) with advanced lung or gastrointestinal cancer and in a healthy control group (n = 13). Results The GPS was normal in all the controls, but abnormal in 78% of the cancer group. Serum levels of sodium, chloride, creatine kinase, zinc and vitamin D were lower in the cancer group (all p<0.01), whereas levels of calcium, copper (both p<0.05), alkaline phosphatase, γ‐glutamyl transferase (both p<0.001) and lactate dehydrogenase (p<0.10) were raised. In the patient group, with increasing GPS, there was a median reduction in Karnofsky Performance Status (25%), haemoglobin (22%), sodium (3%), zinc (15%) and survival (93%, all p<0.05) and a median increase in white cell count (129%), alkaline phosphatase (217%), γ‐glutamyl transferase (371%) and lactate dehydrogenase (130%, all p<0.05). CRP levels were strongly and similarly correlated with alkaline phosphatase and γ‐glutamyl transferase, accounting for more than 25% of the variation in their activities. Conclusion Several correlations were seen between biochemical variables and increasing GPS. In particular, chronic activation of the systemic inflammatory response in cancer was associated with increase in γ‐glutamyl transferase and alkaline phosphatase activity in patients with advanced lung and gastrointestinal cancer. PMID:16644880

  8. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) as a novel and significant predictor of extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type.

    PubMed

    Li, Ya-Jun; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Huang, Jia-Jia; Xia, Zhong-Jun; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Li, Zhi-Ming

    2013-05-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score including C-reactive protein and albumin, shows significant prognostic value in several types of solid tumors. The prognostic value of GPS in lymphoma remains unclear. We performed this study to evaluate the prognostic significance of GPS in extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL). We retrospectively analyzed 164 patients with newly diagnosed ENKL. The prognostic value of GPS was evaluated and compared with that of International Prognostic Index (IPI), Prognostic Index for Peripheral T-cell lymphoma unspecified (PIT), and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI). Patients with higher GPS tended to have more adverse clinical characteristics, lower rates of complete remission (P < 0.001), inferior progression-free survival (PFS, P < 0.001), and inferior overall survival (OS, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high GPS, age > 60 years, and elevated LDH were independent adverse predictors of OS. GPS was found superior to IPI, PIT, and KPI in discriminating patients with different outcomes in low-risk groups (all P < 0.05). GPS is an independent predictor of survival outcomes in ENKL. Inflammatory response might play an important role in the progression of ENKL and survival of patients with ENKL. PMID:23423859

  9. Pretreatment Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score Predicts Clinical Outcomes After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Kishi, Takahiro; Matsuo, Yukinori Ueki, Nami; Iizuka, Yusuke; Nakamura, Akira; Sakanaka, Katsuyuki; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: Data from 165 patients who underwent SBRT for stage I NSCLC with histologic confirmation from January 1999 to September 2010 were collected retrospectively. Factors, including age, performance status, histology, Charlson comorbidity index, mGPS, and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class based on sex and T stage, were evaluated with regard to overall survival (OS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. The impact of the mGPS on cause of death and failure patterns was also analyzed. Results: The 3-year OS was 57.9%, with a median follow-up time of 3.5 years. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with poor OS (P<.001). The 3-year OS of lower mGPS patients was 66.4%, whereas that of higher mGPS patients was 44.5%. On multivariate analysis, mGPS and RPA class were significant factors for OS. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with lung cancer death (P=.019) and distant metastasis (P=.013). Conclusions: The mGPS was a significant predictor of clinical outcomes for SBRT in NSCLC patients.

  10. Anti-epidermal or anti-vascular endothelial growth factor as first-line metastatic colorectal cancer in modified Glasgow prognostic score 2' patients

    PubMed Central

    Dréanic, Johann; Dhooge, Marion; Barret, Maximilien; Brezault, Catherine; Mir, Olivier; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2015-01-01

    Background In metastatic colorectal cancer, the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) has been approved as an independent prognostic indicator of survival. No data existed on poor prognosis patients treated with molecular-targeted agents. Methods From January 2007 to February 2012, patients with metastatic colorectal cancer and poor predictive survival score (mGPS = 2), treated with 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy in addition to an anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) or anti-vascular epidermal growth factor (VEGF) therapy, were included to assess the interest of targeted therapy within mGPS = 2' patients. Results A total of 27 mGPS = 2' patients were included and received a 5-fluorouracil-based systemic chemotherapy in addition to an anti-EGFR treatment (cetuximab; n = 18) or an anti-VEGF treatment (bevacizumab; n = 9). Median follow-up was 12.1 months (interquartile range 4.9–22). Patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status 1, 2, and 3 in 66% (n = 18), 26% (n = 7), and 8% (n = 2), respectively. Comparing anti-EGFR and anti-VEGF groups, median progression-free survival was 3.9 and 15.4 months, respectively, and was significantly different (P = 0.046). Conversely, the median overall survival was not significantly different between the two groups (P = 0.15). Conclusion Our study confirmed the poor survival of patients with mGPS = 2 despite the use of targeted therapy and identified the superiority of an anti-VEGF treatment in progression-free survival, without a significant benefit in the overall survival compared with the anti-EGFR therapy. Our results deserved confirmation by a prospective clinical trial. PMID:26401469

  11. Gait and Glasgow Coma Scale scores can predict functional recovery in patients with traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Bilgin, Sevil; Guclu-Gunduz, Arzu; Oruckaptan, Hakan; Kose, Nezire; Celik, Bülent

    2012-09-01

    Fifty-one patients with mild (n = 14), moderate (n = 10) and severe traumatic brain injury (n = 27) received early rehabilitation. Level of consciousness was evaluated using the Glasgow Coma Score. Functional level was determined using the Glasgow Outcome Score, whilst mobility was evaluated using the Mobility Scale for Acute Stroke. Activities of daily living were assessed using the Barthel Index. Following Bobath neurodevelopmental therapy, the level of consciousness was significantly improved in patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury, but was not greatly influenced in patients with mild traumatic brain injury. Mobility and functional level were significantly improved in patients with mild, moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Gait recovery was more obvious in patients with mild traumatic brain injury than in patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Activities of daily living showed an improvement but this was insignificant except for patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Nevertheless, complete recovery was not acquired at discharge. Multiple regression analysis showed that gait and Glasgow Coma Scale scores can be considered predictors of functional outcomes following traumatic brain injury. PMID:25624828

  12. A Survey of Attitudes towards the Clinical Application of Systemic Inflammation Based Prognostic Scores in Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Watt, David G.; Roxburgh, Campbell S.; White, Mark; Chan, Juen Zhik; Horgan, Paul G.; McMillan, Donald C.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. The systemic inflammatory response (SIR) plays a key role in determining nutritional status and survival of patients with cancer. A number of objective scoring systems have been shown to have prognostic value; however, their application in routine clinical practice is not clear. The aim of the present survey was to examine the range of opinions internationally on the routine use of these scoring systems. Methods. An online survey was distributed to a target group consisting of individuals worldwide who have reported an interest in systemic inflammation in patients with cancer. Results. Of those invited by the survey (n = 238), 65% routinely measured the SIR, mainly for research and prognostication purposes and clinically for allocation of adjuvant therapy or palliative chemotherapy. 40% reported that they currently used the Glasgow Prognostic Score/modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS/mGPS) and 81% reported that a measure of systemic inflammation should be incorporated into clinical guidelines, such as the definition of cachexia. Conclusions. The majority of respondents routinely measured the SIR in patients with cancer, mainly using the GPS/mGPS for research and prognostication purposes. The majority reported that a measure of the SIR should be adopted into clinical guidelines. PMID:26504363

  13. Clinical Implication of Inflammation-Based Prognostic Score in Pancreatic Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Yamada, Suguru; Fujii, Tsutomu; Yabusaki, Norimitsu; Murotani, Kenta; Iwata, Naoki; Kanda, Mitsuro; Tanaka, Chie; Nakayama, Goro; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Koike, Masahiko; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2016-01-01

    Abstract A variety of systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores have been explored; however, there has been no study to clarify which score could best reflect survival in resected pancreatic cancer patients. Between 2002 and 2014, 379 consecutive patients who underwent curative resection of pancreatic cancer were enrolled. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic index (PI), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) scores for each patient were calculated. Survival of each score was evaluated, and correlations between the score selected on the basis of the prognostic significance and various clinicopathological factors were analyzed. In the analysis of the GPS, the median survival time (MST) was 28.1 months for score 0, 25.6 for score 1, and 17.0 for score 2. As for mGPS, the MST was 25.8 months for score 0, 27.7 for score 1, and 17.0 for score 2. Both scores were found to be significant. On the contrary, there were no statistical differences in MST between various scores obtained using the NLR, PLR, PI, or PNI. Multivariate analysis revealed that lymph node metastasis, positive peritoneal washing cytology, and a GPS score of 2 were significant prognostic factors. There was also statistically significant correlation between the GPS score and tumor location (head), tumor size (≥2.0 cm), bile duct invasion, and duodenal invasion. Our study demonstrated that the GPS could be an independent predictive marker and was superior to other inflammation-based prognostic scores in patients with resected pancreatic cancer. PMID:27149487

  14. A review of the predictive ability of Glasgow Coma Scale scores in head-injured patients.

    PubMed

    McNett, Molly

    2007-04-01

    According to 1999 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, traumatic brain injuries (TBI) caused by motor vehicle accidents, firearms, and falls are recorded as a leading cause of death and lifelong disability for young adults in the United States. Researchers have investigated if correlations exist between variables in the acute stage of injury and outcome measures in TBI patients. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score is one variable that was extensively studied for its ability to predict outcome in TBI patients. However, the use of different designs and methodologies in these studies makes the interpretation of the cumulative findings difficult. Therefore the purpose of this review was to provide a summary of the research findings on the ability of the GCS scores to predict outcome in TBI patients. A search was done on MEDLINE and CINAHL to identify studies that investigated the predictive ability of the GCS score. Studies that used the GCS as a variable in predicting outcome with adult patients who had sustained some type of head injury were included. GCS scores are most accurate at predicting outcome in head-injured patients when they are combined with patient age and pupillary response and when broad outcome categories are used. The motor component of the GCS yields similar prediction rates as the summed GCS score, and better prediction occurs with very high or very low GCS scores. Information about the cumulative research findings on the predictive ability of GCS scores aids nurses in providing support and education to family members during the acute stage of injury, and in coordinating the services of members of the healthcare team, which could result in improved outcomes for both patient and family. PMID:17477220

  15. 30-Day Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Prognostic Value of Clinical Scores and Anamnestic Features

    PubMed Central

    Bach, Andreas Gunter; Taute, Bettina-Maria; Baasai, Nansalmaa; Wienke, Andreas; Meyer, Hans Jonas; Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Identification of high-risk patients with pulmonary embolism is vital. The aim of the present study was to examine clinical scores, their single items, and anamnestic features in their ability to predict 30-day mortality. Materials and Methods A retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of pulmonary embolism, availability of patient records and 30-day follow-up. The following clinical scores were calculated: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, original and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and euroSCORE II. Results In the study group of 365 patients 39 patients (10.7%) died within 30 days due to pulmonary embolism. From all examined scores and parameters the best predictor of 30-day mortality were the Glasgow Coma scale (≤ 10) and parameters of the circulatory system including presence of mechanical ventilation, arterial pH (< 7.335), and systolic blood pressure (< 99 mm Hg). Conclusions Easy to ascertain circulatory parameters have the same or higher prognostic value than the clinical scores that were applied in this study. From all clinical scores studied the Glasgow Coma Scale was the most time- and cost-efficient one. PMID:26866472

  16. Which score should be used in intubated patients’ Glasgow coma scale or full outline of unresponsiveness?

    PubMed Central

    Gorji, Mohammad Ali Heidari; Gorji, Ali Morad Heidari; Hosseini, Seyed Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims: Today Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is the most well-known and common score for evaluation of the level of consciousness and outcome predict after traumatic brain injuries in the world. Regarding to some advantages of the full outline of unresponsiveness (FOUR) score over GCS in intubated patients, we’re going to compare the precision of these two scores in predicting the outcome predict in intubated patients. Methods: This research was a diagnostic-based study, which was conducted prospectively on 80 patients with Traumatic brain injury who were intubated and admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of Educational Hospitals of Mazandaran University of Medical Science during February 2013 to August 2013. The scores of FOUR and GCS were measured by the researcher in the first 24 h of admission in ICU. The information's recorded in the check list including the mortality rate of early and late inside of the hospital interred to excel. The findings were analyzed using SPSS software, through descriptive statistics and regression logistic. Results: The results showed of 80 patients 21 patients (20%) were female and 59 patients (80%) were male. The age average of the samples was 33.80 ± 12.60 ranging from 16 to 60 years old. 21 patients (26.2%) died during treatment. Of 21 patients, 15 patients died during first 14 days (18.7%) and 6 patients died after 14 years (7.5%). The area under curve (AUC) of FOUR score in early mortality was 0.90 (C1 = 0.95, 0.88–0.90). The amount AUC for GCS was 0.80 (C1 = 0.95, 0.78–0.84), which in delayed mortality it was ordered as 0.86 (C1 = 0.95, 0.84–0.90) and 0.89 (C1 = 0.95, 0.78–0.88). Conclusion: The research results indicated that FOUR score is more exact and more practical in intubated patients regarding lack of verbal response factor in early mortality prediction in GCS. Hence, it is recommended for health professionals to use the FOUR score to predict the early outcome of intubated patients with traumatic

  17. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

    PubMed

    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

    2016-08-01

    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). PMID:23907781

  18. Predicting Outcome in Acute Organophosphorus Poisoning with a Poison Severity Score or the Glasgow Coma Scale

    PubMed Central

    Davies, James O. J.; Eddleston, Michael; Buckley, Nick A.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Organophosphorus pesticide poisoning kills around 200,000 people each year, principally due to self poisoning in the Asia-Pacific region. Aim: We wished to assess whether patients at high risk of death could be identified accurately using clinical parameters soon after hospital admission. Design: We evaluated the usefulness of the International Program on Chemical Safety Poison Severity Score (IPCS PSS) and the Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) prospectively for predicting death in patients poisoned by organophosphorus pesticides. Methods: Data were collected as part of a multicentre cohort study in Sri Lanka. Study doctors saw all patients on admission, collecting data on pulse, blood pressure, pupil size, need for intubation, and GCS. Results: 1365 patients with a history of acute organophosphorus poisoning were included. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated for the IPCS PSS and GCS on admission. The IPCS PSS and GCS had similar ROC area under the curves (AUC) and best cut points as determined by Youden's index (AUC/sensitivity/specificity 0.81/0.78/0.79 for IPCS PSS ≥ grade 2 and 0.84/0.79/0.79 for GCS ≤13). The predictive value varied with the pesticide ingested, being more accurate for dimethoate poisoning and less accurate for fenthion poisoning (GCS AUC 0.91 compared to 0.69). Conclusions: GCS and the IPCS PSS were similarly effective at predicting outcome. Patients presenting with a GCS ≤ 13 need intensive monitoring and treatment. However, the identity of the organophosphate must be taken into account since the half of all patients who died from fenthion poisoning only had mild symptoms at presentation. PMID:18319295

  19. Revised trauma scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality in the emergency department: Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, and Systolic Blood Pressure score

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Our aim in this study was to assess whether the new Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, and Systolic Blood Pressure (GAP) scoring system, which is a modification of the Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, and Arterial Pressure (MGAP) scoring system, better predicts in-hospital mortality and can be applied more easily than previous trauma scores among trauma patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods This multicenter, prospective, observational study was conducted to analyze readily available variables in the ED, which are associated with mortality rates among trauma patients. The data used in this study were derived from the Japan Trauma Data Bank (JTDB), which consists of 114 major emergency hospitals in Japan. A total of 35,732 trauma patients in the JTDB from 2004 to 2009 who were 15 years of age or older were eligible for inclusion in the study. Of these patients, 27,154 (76%) with complete sets of important data (patient age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, systolic blood pressure (SBP), respiratory rate and Injury Severity Score (ISS)) were included in our analysis. We calculated weight for the predictors of the GAP scores on the basis of the records of 13,463 trauma patients in a derivation data set determined by using logistic regression. Scores derived from four existing scoring systems (Revised Trauma Score, Triage Revised Trauma Score, Trauma and Injury Severity Score and MGAP score) were calibrated using logistic regression models that fit in the derivation set. The GAP scoring system was compared to the calibrated scoring systems with data from a total of 13,691 patients in a validation data set using c-statistics and reclassification tables with three defined risk groups based on a previous publication: low risk (mortality < 5%), intermediate risk, and high risk (mortality > 50%). Results Calculated GAP scores involved GCS score (from three to fifteen points), patient age < 60 years (three points) and SBP (> 120 mmHg, six points; 60 to 120

  20. A new prognostic score based on the systemic inflammatory response in patients with inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Lizhen; Li, Xiaofen; Shen, Yanwei; Cao, Ying; Fang, Xuefeng; Chen, Jiaqi; Yuan, Ying

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Pretreatment systemic inflammatory response has been confirmed to have prognostic value in patients with inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Increasing studies show that the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), a prognostic score based on C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin, is a prognostic factor in these patients. This study was aimed at recognizing possible prognostic factors and new prognostic scores of inoperable NSCLC based on pretreatment systemic inflammatory response. Patients and methods We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathological data of 105 patients with inoperable NSCLC who received first-line chemotherapy as initial treatment. Univariate and multivariate analyses of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for prognostic factors and scores were performed. Results The serum CRP, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), cancer antigen 125 (CA125), and pathological type were independent pretreatment prognostic factors for PFS and OS. A new score was assembled by CRP, LDH, and CA125. In multivariate analysis, when the mGPS and the new score were covariates, only the new score retained independent prognostic value for both PFS (P<0.001; hazard ratio =2.12; 95% confidence interval: 1.60–2.82) and OS (P<0.001; hazard ratio =1.82; 95% confidence interval: 1.33–2.48). Conclusion The new score based on pretreatment serum level of CRP, LDH, and CA125, indicates the prognosis of both PFS and OS in patients with inoperable NSCLC who were treated with first-line systemic chemotherapy, and it was found to be more effective than mGPS. PMID:27540301

  1. A Comparison of Systemic Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores in Patients on Regular Hemodialysis

    PubMed Central

    Kato, Akihiko; Tsuji, Takayuki; Sakao, Yukitoshi; Ohashi, Naro; Yasuda, Hideo; Fujimoto, Taiki; Takita, Takako; Furuhashi, Mitsuyoshi; Kumagai, Hiromichi

    2013-01-01

    Background/Aims Systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores have prognostic power in patients with cancer, independently of tumor stage and site. Although inflammatory status is associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients, it remains to be determined as to whether these composite scores are useful in predicting clinical outcomes. Methods We calculated the 6 prognostic scores [Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic index (PI) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), which have been established as a useful scoring system in cancer patients. We enrolled 339 patients on regular HD (age: 64 ± 13 years; time on HD: 129 ± 114 months; males/females = 253/85) and followed them for 42 months. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was used to determine which scoring system was more predictive of mortality. Results Elevated GPS, mGPS, NLR, PLR, PI and PNI were all associated with total mortality, independent of covariates. If GPS was raised, mGPS, NLR, PLR and PI were also predictive of all-cause mortality and/or hospitalization. GPS and PNI were associated with poor nutritional status. Using overall mortality as an endpoint, the area under the curve (AUC) was significant for a GPS of 0.701 (95% CI: 0.637-0.765; p < 0.01) and for a PNI of 0.616 (95% CI: 0.553-0.768; p = 0.01). However, AUC for hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dl) was comparable to that of GPS (0.695, 95% CI: 0.632-0.759; p < 0.01). Conclusion GPS, based on serum albumin and highly sensitive C-reactive protein, has the most prognostic power for mortality prediction among the prognostic scores in HD patients. However, as the determination of serum albumin reflects mortality similarly to GPS, other composite combinations are needed to provide additional clinical utility beyond that of albumin alone in HD patients. PMID:24403910

  2. Assessment of prognostic scores in brain metastases from breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Tabouret, Emeline; Metellus, Philippe; Gonçalves, Anthony; Esterni, Benjamin; Charaffe-Jauffret, Emmanuelle; Viens, Patrice; Tallet, Agnés

    2014-01-01

    Background Breast cancer (BC) is the second most common cause of brain metastases (BM). Optimal management of BM from BC is still debated. In an attempt to provide appropriate treatment and to assist with optimal patient selection, several specific prognostic classifications for BM from BC have been established. We evaluated the prognostic value and validity of the 6 proposed scoring systems in an independent population of BC patients with BM. Methods We retrospectively reviewed all consecutive BC patients referred to our institution for newly diagnosed BM between October 1995 and July 2011 (n = 149). Each of the 6 scores proposed for BM from BC (Sperduto, Niwinska, Park, Nieder, Le Scodan, and Claude) was applied to this population. The discriminative ability of each score was assessed using the Brier score and the C-index. Individual prognostic values of clinical and histological factors were analyzed using uni- and multivariate analyses. Results Median overall survival was 15.1 months (95% CI,11.5–18.7). Sperduto-GPA (P < .001), Nieder (P < .001), Park (P < .001), Claude (P < .001), Niwinska (P < .001), and Le Scodan (P = .034) scores all showed significant prognostic value. The Nieder score showed the best discriminative ability (C-index, 0.672; Brier score error reduction, 16.1%). Conclusion The majority of prognostic scores were relevant for patients with BM from BC in our independent population, and the Nieder score seems to present the best predictive value but showed a relatively low positive predictive value. Thus, these results remain insufficient and challenge the routine use of these scoring systems. PMID:24311640

  3. A Prognostic Model Using Inflammation- and Nutrition-Based Scores in Patients With Metastatic Gastric Adenocarcinoma Treated With Chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hsieh, Meng-Che; Wang, Shih-Hor; Chuah, Seng-Kee; Lin, Yu-Hung; Lan, Jui; Rau, Kun-Ming

    2016-04-01

    The outcomes of patients with metastatic gastric cancer (mGC) are poor. Recent studies have identified the prognostic impact of inflammatory response and nutritional status on survival for patients with gastric cancer. This study aims to create a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores to predict survival in patients with mGC treated with chemotherapy.After institutional review board approval, patients who had mGC and were treated with chemotherapy from 2007 to 2012 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Significantly predictive factors were identified by multivariate Cox regression analyses. Based on these variables, a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores was constructed to predict survival. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate overall survival. The c-statistic values with 95% confidence interval (CI) were also calculated to access their predicting performances.Our study consisted of 256 patients with a median age of 60 years and a median follow-up visit of 18.5 months. Multivariate analyses showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) were independently related to survival. After computing these scores, patients were classified into favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups. The median overall survival were 27.6 versus 13.2 versus 8.2 months in favorable, intermediate, and poor-risk groups, respectively. The 2-year survival rate was 52% versus 16% versus 3% in favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, respectively. (P < 0.001). The c-statistic value of our model at 2 years is 0.8 (95% CI, 0.75-0.86).NLR, mGPS, and PG-SGA were independently related to survival. Our prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores could provide prognostic information to patients and physicians. PMID:27124056

  4. A Prognostic Model Using Inflammation- and Nutrition-Based Scores in Patients With Metastatic Gastric Adenocarcinoma Treated With Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Hsieh, Meng-Che; Wang, Shih-Hor; Chuah, Seng-Kee; Lin, Yu-Hung; Lan, Jui; Rau, Kun-Ming

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The outcomes of patients with metastatic gastric cancer (mGC) are poor. Recent studies have identified the prognostic impact of inflammatory response and nutritional status on survival for patients with gastric cancer. This study aims to create a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores to predict survival in patients with mGC treated with chemotherapy. After institutional review board approval, patients who had mGC and were treated with chemotherapy from 2007 to 2012 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Significantly predictive factors were identified by multivariate Cox regression analyses. Based on these variables, a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores was constructed to predict survival. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate overall survival. The c-statistic values with 95% confidence interval (CI) were also calculated to access their predicting performances. Our study consisted of 256 patients with a median age of 60 years and a median follow-up visit of 18.5 months. Multivariate analyses showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) were independently related to survival. After computing these scores, patients were classified into favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups. The median overall survival were 27.6 versus 13.2 versus 8.2 months in favorable, intermediate, and poor-risk groups, respectively. The 2-year survival rate was 52% versus 16% versus 3% in favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, respectively. (P < 0.001). The c-statistic value of our model at 2 years is 0.8 (95% CI, 0.75–0.86). NLR, mGPS, and PG-SGA were independently related to survival. Our prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores could provide prognostic information to patients and physicians. PMID:27124056

  5. Multidisciplinary Prognostication Using the Palliative Prognostic Score in an Australian Cancer Center

    PubMed Central

    Mendis, Ruwani; Soo, Wee-Kheng; Zannino, Diana; Michael, Natasha; Spruyt, Odette

    2015-01-01

    CONTEXT Accurate prognostication is important in oncology and palliative care. A multidisciplinary approach to prognostication provides a novel approach, but its accuracy and application is poorly researched. In this study, we describe and analyze our experience of multidisciplinary prognostication in palliative care patients with cancer. OBJECTIVES To assess our accuracy of prognostication using multidisciplinary team prediction of survival (MTPS) alone and within the Palliative Prognostic (PaP) Score. METHODS This retrospective study included all new patients referred to a palliative care consultation service in a tertiary cancer center between January 2010 and December 2011. Initial assessment data for 421 inpatients and 223 outpatients were analyzed according to inpatient and outpatient groups to evaluate the accuracy of prognostication using MTPS alone and within the PaP score (MTPS-PaP) and their correlation with overall survival. RESULTS Inpatients with MTPS-PaP group A, B, and C had a median survival of 10.9, 3.4, and 0.7 weeks, respectively, and a 30-day survival probability of 81%, 40%, and 10%, respectively. Outpatients with MTPS-PaP group A and B had a median survival of 17.3 and 5.1 weeks, respectively, and a 30-day survival probability of 94% and 50%, respectively. MTPS overestimated survival by a factor of 1.5 for inpatients and 1.2 for outpatients. The MTPS-PaP score correlated better than MTPS alone with overall survival. CONCLUSION This study suggests that a multidisciplinary team approach to prognostication within routine clinical practice is possible and may substitute for single clinician prediction of survival within the PaP score without detracting from its accuracy. Multidisciplinary team prognostication can assist treating teams to recognize and articulate prognosis, facilitate treatment decisions, and plan end-of-life care appropriately. PaP was less useful in the outpatient setting, given the longer survival interval of the outpatient

  6. Prealbumin/CRP Based Prognostic Score, a New Tool for Predicting Metastasis in Patients with Inoperable Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Esfahani, Ali; Makhdami, Nima; Faramarzi, Elnaz; Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Ostadrahimi, Alireza; Ghayour Nahand, Mousa; Ghoreishi, Zohreh

    2016-01-01

    Background. There is a considerable dissimilarity in the survival duration of the patients with gastric cancer. We aimed to assess the systemic inflammatory response (SIR) and nutritional status of these patients before the commencement of chemotherapy to find the appropriate prognostic factors and define a new score for predicting metastasis. Methods. SIR was assessed using Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). Then a score was defined as prealbumin/CRP based prognostic score (PCPS) to be compared with GPS for predicting metastasis and nutritional status. Results. 71 patients with gastric cancer were recruited in the study. 87% of patients had malnutrition. There was a statistical difference between those with metastatic (n = 43) and those with nonmetastatic (n = 28) gastric cancer according to levels of prealbumin and CRP; however they were not different regarding patient generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA) and GPS. The best cut-off value for prealbumin was determined at 0.20 mg/dL and PCPS could predict metastasis with 76.5% sensitivity, 63.6% specificity, and 71.4% accuracy. Metastatic and nonmetastatic gastric cancer patients were different in terms of PCPS (P = 0.005). Conclusion. PCPS has been suggested for predicting metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. Future studies with larger sample size have been warranted. PMID:26904109

  7. Prealbumin/CRP Based Prognostic Score, a New Tool for Predicting Metastasis in Patients with Inoperable Gastric Cancer.

    PubMed

    Esfahani, Ali; Makhdami, Nima; Faramarzi, Elnaz; Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Ostadrahimi, Alireza; Ghayour Nahand, Mousa; Ghoreishi, Zohreh

    2016-01-01

    Background. There is a considerable dissimilarity in the survival duration of the patients with gastric cancer. We aimed to assess the systemic inflammatory response (SIR) and nutritional status of these patients before the commencement of chemotherapy to find the appropriate prognostic factors and define a new score for predicting metastasis. Methods. SIR was assessed using Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). Then a score was defined as prealbumin/CRP based prognostic score (PCPS) to be compared with GPS for predicting metastasis and nutritional status. Results. 71 patients with gastric cancer were recruited in the study. 87% of patients had malnutrition. There was a statistical difference between those with metastatic (n = 43) and those with nonmetastatic (n = 28) gastric cancer according to levels of prealbumin and CRP; however they were not different regarding patient generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA) and GPS. The best cut-off value for prealbumin was determined at 0.20 mg/dL and PCPS could predict metastasis with 76.5% sensitivity, 63.6% specificity, and 71.4% accuracy. Metastatic and nonmetastatic gastric cancer patients were different in terms of PCPS (P = 0.005). Conclusion. PCPS has been suggested for predicting metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. Future studies with larger sample size have been warranted. PMID:26904109

  8. Prognostic value of scores based on malnutrition or systemic inflammatory response in patients with metastatic or recurrent gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Sachlova, Milana; Majek, Ondrej; Tucek, Stepan

    2014-01-01

    Cancer patients are frequently affected by malnutrition and weight loss, which affects their prognosis, length of hospital stay, health care costs, quality of life and survival. Our aim was to assess the prognostic value of different scores based on malnutrition or systemic inflammatory response in 91 metastatic or recurrent gastric cancer patients considered for palliative chemotherapy at the Masaryk Memorial Cancer Institute. We investigated their overall survival according to the following measures: Onodera's Prognostic Nutritional Index (OPNI), Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), nutritional risk indicator (NRI), Cancer Cachexia Study Group (CCSG), as previously defined, and a simple preadmission weight loss. The OPNI, GPS, and CCSG provided very significant prognostic values for survival (log-rank test P value < 0.001). For example, the median survival for patients with GPS 0 was 12.3 mo [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7-16.7], whereas the median survival for patients with GPS 2 was only 2.9 mo (95% CI: 1.9-4.8). A significantly worse survival of malnourished patients was also suggested by a multivariate model. The values of GPS, OPNI, and CCSG represent useful tools for the evaluation of patients' prognosis and should be part of a routine evaluation of patients to provide a timely nutrition support. PMID:25356861

  9. Revised international prognostic scoring system for myelodysplastic syndromes.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Peter L; Tuechler, Heinz; Schanz, Julie; Sanz, Guillermo; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Levis, Alessandro; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M; Slovak, Marilyn L; Krieger, Otto; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Magalhaes, Silvia M M; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Sekeres, Mikkael; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef

    2012-09-20

    The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) is an important standard for assessing prognosis of primary untreated adult patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). To refine the IPSS, MDS patient databases from international institutions were coalesced to assemble a much larger combined database (Revised-IPSS [IPSS-R], n = 7012, IPSS, n = 816) for analysis. Multiple statistically weighted clinical features were used to generate a prognostic categorization model. Bone marrow cytogenetics, marrow blast percentage, and cytopenias remained the basis of the new system. Novel components of the current analysis included: 5 rather than 3 cytogenetic prognostic subgroups with specific and new classifications of a number of less common cytogenetic subsets, splitting the low marrow blast percentage value, and depth of cytopenias. This model defined 5 rather than the 4 major prognostic categories that are present in the IPSS. Patient age, performance status, serum ferritin, and lactate dehydrogenase were significant additive features for survival but not for acute myeloid leukemia transformation. This system comprehensively integrated the numerous known clinical features into a method analyzing MDS patient prognosis more precisely than the initial IPSS. As such, this IPSS-R should prove beneficial for predicting the clinical outcomes of untreated MDS patients and aiding design and analysis of clinical trials in this disease. PMID:22740453

  10. The Performance of a Modified Glasgow Blatchford Score in Predicting Clinical Interventions in Patients with Acute Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Vietnamese Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Quach, Duc Trong; Dao, Ngoi Huu; Dinh, Minh Cao; Nguyen, Chung Huu; Ho, Linh Xuan; Nguyen, Nha-Doan Thi; Le, Quang Dinh; Vo, Cong Minh Hong; Le, Sang Kim; Hiyama, Toru

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims To compare the performance of a modified Glasgow Blatchford score (mGBS) to the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) and the pre-endoscopic Rockall score (RS) in predicting clinical interventions in Vietnamese patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AN-VUGIB). Methods A prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted in five tertiary hospitals from May 2013 to February 2014. The mGBS, GBS, and pre-endoscopic RS scores were prospectively calculated for all patients. The accuracy of mGBS was compared with that of GBS and pre-endoscopic RS using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Clinical interventions were defined as blood transfusions, endoscopic or radiological intervention, or surgery. Results There were 395 patients including 128 (32.4%) needing endoscopic treatment, 117 (29.6%) requiring blood transfusion and two (0.5%) needing surgery. In predicting the need for clinical intervention, the mGBS (AUC, 0.707) performed as well as the GBS (AUC, 0.708; p=0.87) and outperformed the pre-endoscopic RS (AUC, 0.594; p<0.001). However, none of these scores effectively excluded the need for endoscopic intervention at a threshold of 0. Conclusions mGBS performed as well as GBS and better than pre-endoscopic RS for predicting clinical interventions in Vietnamese patients with ANVUGIB. PMID:26601829

  11. A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, Wade H

    2016-01-01

    Objective Arm exercise stress testing may be an equivalent or better predictor of mortality outcome than pharmacological stress imaging for the ≥50% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals. Methods In this retrospective observational cohort study, arm exercise ECG stress tests were performed in 443 consecutive veterans aged 64.1 (11.1) years. (mean (SD)) between 1997 and 2002. From multivariate Cox models, arm exercise scores were developed for prediction of 5-year and 12-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 5-year cardiovascular mortality or myocardial infarction (MI). Results Arm exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs), 1 min heart rate recovery (HRR) and ST segment depression ≥1 mm were the stress test variables independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by step-wise Cox analysis (all p<0.01). A score based on the relation HRR (bpm)+7.3×METs−10.5×ST depression (0=no; 1=yes) prognosticated 5-year cardiovascular mortality with a C-statistic of 0.81 before and 0.88 after adjustment for significant demographic and clinical covariates. Arm exercise scores for the other outcome end points yielded C-statistic values of 0.77–0.79 before and 0.82–0.86 after adjustment for significant covariates versus 0.64–0.72 for best fit pharmacological myocardial perfusion imaging models in a cohort of 1730 veterans who were evaluated over the same time period. Conclusions Arm exercise scores, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, have good power for prediction of mortality or MI in patients who cannot perform leg exercise. PMID:26835142

  12. Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Correia, Luis C. L.; Garcia, Guilherme; Kalil, Felipe; Ferreira, Felipe; Carvalhal, Manuela; Oliveira, Ruan; Silva, André; Vasconcelos, Isis; Henri, Caio; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia

    2014-01-01

    Background The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) in relation to hospital death. Results The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively), as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively). Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98), similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99) - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92), well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08). This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively), differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%), which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Conclusion Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles. PMID:25029471

  13. Short-term prognostic factors in lumbar disc surgery: the low back prognostic score is of predictive value.

    PubMed

    Woertgen, C; Gliese, M; Rothoerl, R D; Holzschuh, M; Schlaier, J; Ullrich, O W; Brawanski, A

    1998-01-01

    In order to determine prognostic factors of lumbar disc surgery, we examined 107 patients who were conventionally operated on in a prospective, consecutive study. We analysed general data, the case history, the neurological examination at admission and all data from imaging examinations and therapy. In addition, all patients received a questionnaire based on the Low Back Outcome Score [9, 10]. The patients were re-examined after 2-8 months (103 days mean). According to their ratings on a pain grading scale, the patients were divided into a group with favorable and another with unfavorable results. These groups were analysed in relation to the patients' initial condition. At follow up, 88% of the patients had either completely recovered or their complaints had been relieved. According to the Low Back Outcome Score (LBOS), 64.5% went well. Used to evaluate the initial condition of the patients on admission the LBOS was able to predict favorable outcome in 68% and unfavorable outcome in 50%. To improve the prognostic value, we combined significant questions of the LBOS with the pain grading scale and significant prognostic factors to form a new prognostic score (Low Back Prognostic Score). With this new score we were able to predict a favorable outcome in 84% of our patients, and an unfavorable outcome in 71%. The Low Back Prognostic score seems to provide a sensitive method for predicting a favorable or unfavorable outcome for patients scheduled to undergo lumbar disc surgery. PMID:9577926

  14. Better Glasgow outcome score, cerebral perfusion pressure and focal brain oxygenation in severely traumatized brain following direct regional brain hypothermia therapy: A prospective randomized study

    PubMed Central

    Idris, Zamzuri; Zenian, Mohd Sofan; Muzaimi, Mustapha; Hamid, Wan Zuraida Wan Abdul

    2014-01-01

    Background: Induced hypothermia for treatment of traumatic brain injury is controversial. Since many pathways involved in the pathophysiology of secondary brain injury are temperature dependent, regional brain hypothermia is thought capable to mitigate those processes. The objectives of this study are to assess the therapeutic effects and complications of regional brain cooling in severe head injury with Glasgow coma scale (GCS) 6-7. Materials and Methods: A prospective randomized controlled pilot study involving patients with severe traumatic brain injury with GCS 6 and 7 who required decompressive craniectomy. Patients were randomized into two groups: Cooling and no cooling. For the cooling group, analysis was made by dividing the group into mild and deep cooling. Brain was cooled by irrigating the brain continuously with cold Hartmann solution for 24-48 h. Main outcome assessments were a dichotomized Glasgow outcome score (GOS) at 6 months posttrauma. Results: A total of 32 patients were recruited. The cooling-treated patients did better than no cooling. There were 63.2% of patients in cooling group attained good GOS at 6 months compared to only 15.4% in noncooling group (P = 0.007). Interestingly, the analysis at 6 months post-trauma disclosed mild-cooling-treated patients did better than no cooling (70% vs. 15.4% attained good GOS, P = 0.013) and apparently, the deep-cooling-treated patients failed to be better than either no cooling (P = 0.074) or mild cooling group (P = 0.650). Conclusion: Data from this pilot study imply direct regional brain hypothermia appears safe, feasible and maybe beneficial in treating severely head-injured patients. PMID:25685201

  15. Prognostic relevance of morphological classification models for myelodysplastic syndromes in an era of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System.

    PubMed

    van Spronsen, Margot F; Ossenkoppele, Gert J; Westers, Theresia M; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A

    2016-03-01

    Numerous morphological classification models have been developed to organise the heterogeneous spectrum of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). While the 2008 update of the World Health Organisation (WHO) is the current standard, the publication of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has illustrated the need for supplemental prognostic information. The aim of this study was to investigate whether morphological classification models for MDS - of both the French-American-British (FAB) group and WHO - provide reliable criteria for their classification into homogeneous and clinically relevant categories with prognostic relevance beyond the IPSS-R. We reclassified 238 MDS patients using each of the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 criteria and studied classification categories in terms of clinical, haematological and cytogenetic features. Subsequently, we calculated prognostic scores using the IPSS-R and investigated whether the morphological classification models had significantly prognostic value in patients stratified by the IPSS-R and vice versa. By adopting the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 classifications, MDS patients were organised into homogeneous categories with intrinsic prognostic information. However, whereas the morphological classification models showed no prognostic value beyond the IPSS-R, the IPSS-R had significant prognostic value beyond the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 classifications. Even though morphological classification models for MDS might be clinically relevant from a prognostic point of view, their relevance in terms of risk stratification is evidently limited in light of the IPSS-R. Therefore, we suggest to stop the use of morphological classification models for MDS for risk stratification in routine clinical practice. PMID:26798967

  16. An international data set for CMML validates prognostic scoring systems and demonstrates a need for novel prognostication strategies

    PubMed Central

    Padron, E; Garcia-Manero, G; Patnaik, M M; Itzykson, R; Lasho, T; Nazha, A; Rampal, R K; Sanchez, M E; Jabbour, E; Al Ali, N H; Thompson, Z; Colla, S; Fenaux, P; Kantarjian, H M; Killick, S; Sekeres, M A; List, A F; Onida, F; Komrokji, R S; Tefferi, A; Solary, E

    2015-01-01

    Since its reclassification as a distinct disease entity, clinical research efforts have attempted to establish baseline characteristics and prognostic scoring systems for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). Although existing data for baseline characteristics and CMML prognostication have been robustly developed and externally validated, these results have been limited by the small size of single-institution cohorts. We developed an international CMML data set that included 1832 cases across eight centers to establish the frequency of key clinical characteristics. Of note, we found that the majority of CMML patients were classified as World Health Organization CMML-1 and that a 7.5% bone marrow blast cut-point may discriminate prognosis with higher resolution in comparison with the existing 10%. We additionally interrogated existing CMML prognostic models and found that they are all valid and have comparable performance but are vulnerable to upstaging. Using random forest survival analysis for variable discovery, we demonstrated that the prognostic power of clinical variables alone is limited. Last, we confirmed the independent prognostic relevance of ASXL1 gene mutations and identified the novel adverse prognostic impact imparted by CBL mutations. Our data suggest that combinations of clinical and molecular information may be required to improve the accuracy of current CMML prognostication. PMID:26230957

  17. Predictors of Intravesical Recurrence After Radical Nephroureterectomy for Upper Urinary Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: An Inflammation-Based Prognostic Score

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Yang Hyun; Seo, Young Ho; Chung, Seung Jun; Hwang, Insang; Yu, Ho Song; Kim, Sun-Ouck; Jung, Seung Il; Kang, Taek Won; Kwon, Dong Deuk; Park, Kwangsung; Hwang, Jun Eul; Heo, Suk Hee; Kim, Geun Soo

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Systemic inflammatory responses, which are defined in terms of the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), have been reported to be independent predictors of unfavorable outcomes in various human cancers. We assessed the utility of the GPS as a predictor of intravesical recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in upper urinary tract carcinoma (UTUC). Materials and Methods We collected data for 147 UTUC patients with no previous history of bladder cancer who underwent RNU from 2004 to 2012. Associations between perioperative clinicopathological variables and intravesical recurrence were analyzed by using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Results Overall, 71 of 147 patients (48%) developed intravesical recurrence, including 21 patients (30%) diagnosed with synchronous bladder tumor. In the univariate analysis, performance status, diabetes mellitus (DM), serum albumin, C-reactive protein, GPS, and synchronous bladder tumor were associated with intravesical recurrence. In the multivariate analysis, performance status (hazard ratio [HR], 2.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-3.85; p=0.001), DM (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.21-3.41; p=0.007), cortical thinning (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.08-3.71; p=0.026), and GPS (score of 1: HR, 6.86; 95% CI, 3.69-12.7; p=0.001; score of 2: HR, 5.96; 95% CI, 3.10-11.4; p=0.001) were independent predictors of intravesical recurrence. Conclusions Our results suggest that the GPS as well as performance status, DM, and cortical thinning are associated with intravesical recurrence after RNU. Thus, more careful follow-up, coupled with postoperative intravesical therapy to avoid bladder recurrence, should be considered in these patients. PMID:25045443

  18. Prognostic significance of CT-emphysema score in patients with advanced squamous cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Saing; Ahn, Hee Kyung; Cho, Eun Kyung; Jeong, Yu Mi; Kim, Jeong Ho

    2016-01-01

    Background Although emphysema is a known independent risk factor of lung cancer, no study has addressed the prognostic impact of computed tomography (CT)-emphysema score in advanced stage lung cancer. Methods For 84 consecutive patients with stage IIIB and IV squamous cell lung cancer that underwent palliative chemotherapy, severity of emphysema was semi-quantitatively scored using baseline chest CT images according to the Goddard scoring system (possible scores range, 0–24). The cutoff of high CT-emphysema score was determined using the maximum chi-squared test and the prognostic significance of the high CT-emphysema score was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results The median CT-emphysema score was 5 (range, 0–22). Patients with a high CT-emphysema score (≥4) tended to have poorer overall survival (OS) (median: 6.3 vs. 13.7 months) than those with a score of <4 (P=0.071). Multivariable analysis revealed that a higher CT-emphysema score was a significant independent prognostic factor for poor OS [hazard ratio (HR) =2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.24–3.41; P=0.005), along with no response to first-line therapy (P=0.009) and no second-line therapy (P<0.001). Conclusions CT-emphysema score is significantly associated with poor prognosis in patients with advanced squamous cell lung cancer.

  19. Predicting survival in malignant pleural effusion: development and validation of the LENT prognostic score

    PubMed Central

    Clive, Amelia O; Kahan, Brennan C; Hooper, Clare E; Bhatnagar, Rahul; Morley, Anna J; Zahan-Evans, Natalie; Bintcliffe, Oliver J; Boshuizen, Rogier C; Fysh, Edward T H; Tobin, Claire L; Medford, Andrew R L; Harvey, John E; van den Heuvel, Michel M; Lee, Y C Gary; Maskell, Nick A

    2014-01-01

    Background Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) causes debilitating breathlessness and predicting survival is challenging. This study aimed to obtain contemporary data on survival by underlying tumour type in patients with MPE, identify prognostic indicators of overall survival and develop and validate a prognostic scoring system. Methods Three large international cohorts of patients with MPE were used to calculate survival by cell type (univariable Cox model). The prognostic value of 14 predefined variables was evaluated in the most complete data set (multivariable Cox model). A clinical prognostic scoring system was then developed and validated. Results Based on the results of the international data and the multivariable survival analysis, the LENT prognostic score (pleural fluid lactate dehydrogenase, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score (PS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and tumour type) was developed and subsequently validated using an independent data set. Risk stratifying patients into low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups gave median (IQR) survivals of 319 days (228–549; n=43), 130 days (47–467; n=129) and 44 days (22–77; n=31), respectively. Only 65% (20/31) of patients with a high-risk LENT score survived 1 month from diagnosis and just 3% (1/31) survived 6 months. Analysis of the area under the receiver operating curve revealed the LENT score to be superior at predicting survival compared with ECOG PS at 1 month (0.77 vs 0.66, p<0.01), 3 months (0.84 vs 0.75, p<0.01) and 6 months (0.85 vs 0.76, p<0.01). Conclusions The LENT scoring system is the first validated prognostic score in MPE, which predicts survival with significantly better accuracy than ECOG PS alone. This may aid clinical decision making in this diverse patient population. PMID:25100651

  20. A Genomic Score Prognostic of Outcome in Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Warren, H Shaw; Elson, Constance M; Hayden, Douglas L; Schoenfeld, David A; Cobb, J Perren; Maier, Ronald V; Moldawer, Lyle L; Moore, Ernest E; Harbrecht, Brian G; Pelak, Kimberly; Cuschieri, Joseph; Herndon, David N; Jeschke, Marc G; Finnerty, Celeste C; Brownstein, Bernard H; Hennessy, Laura; Mason, Philip H; Tompkins, Ronald G

    2009-01-01

    Traumatic injuries frequently lead to infection, organ failure, and death. Health care providers rely on several injury scoring systems to quantify the extent of injury and to help predict clinical outcome. Physiological, anatomical, and clinical laboratory analytic scoring systems (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE], Injury Severity Score [ISS]) are utilized, with limited success, to predict outcome following injury. The recent development of techniques for measuring the expression level of all of a person’s genes simultaneously may make it possible to develop an injury scoring system based on the degree of gene activation. We hypothesized that a peripheral blood leukocyte gene expression score could predict outcome, including multiple organ failure, following severe blunt trauma. To test such a scoring system, we measured gene expression of peripheral blood leukocytes from patients within 12 h of traumatic injury. cRNA derived from whole blood leukocytes obtained within 12 h of injury provided gene expression data for the entire genome that were used to create a composite gene expression score for each patient. Total blood leukocytes were chosen because they are active during inflammation, which is reflective of poor outcome. The gene expression score combines the activation levels of all the genes into a single number which compares the patient’s gene expression to the average gene expression in uninjured volunteers. Expression profiles from healthy volunteers were averaged to create a reference gene expression profile which was used to compute a difference from reference (DFR) score for each patient. This score described the overall genomic response of patients within the first 12 h following severe blunt trauma. Regression models were used to compare the association of the DFR, APACHE, and ISS scores with outcome. We hypothesized that patients with a total gene response more different from uninjured volunteers would tend to have poorer

  1. A simple prognostic score system predicts the prognosis of solitary large hepatocellular carcinoma following hepatectomy

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Jun-yi; Li, Chuan; Wen, Tian-fu; Yan, Lv-nan; Li, Bo; Wang, Wen-tao; Yang, Jia-yin; Xu, Ming-qing

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Solitary large hepatocellular carcinomas (SLHCC) form a heterogeneous group of patients with different survival probabilities. The aim of our study was to develop a simple prognostic index for identifying prognostic subgroups of SLHCC patients. A retrospective analysis of clinical data from 268 patients with operable SLHCC was conducted to investigate prognostic factors and to construct a score system based on risk factors. A Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to evaluate the variables associated with prognosis. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan–Meier survival curves. Three variables remained in the final multivariate model: platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), microvascular invasion (MVI), and tumor size with hazard ratios equal to 1.004 (95% confidence interval: 1.001–1.006), 1.092 (1.044–1.142), and 2.233 (1.125–2.233), respectively. A score of 1 was assigned to each risk factor. Patient scores were determined based on these risk factors; thus, the scores ranged between 0 and 3. Ultimately, three categories (0, 1–2, 3) were defined. Patients with scores of 3 had a 5-year survival rate of 25.4%, whereas patients with a score of 0 had a 5-year survival rate of 52.1%. The prognosis significantly worsened as the score increased. Similar results were found among cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients. Our simple prognostic index successfully predicts SLHCC survival. PMID:27495033

  2. Prostate cancer: from Gleason scoring to prognostic grade grouping.

    PubMed

    Montironi, Rodolfo; Santoni, Matteo; Mazzucchelli, Roberta; Burattini, Luciano; Berardi, Rossana; Galosi, Andrea B; Cheng, Liang; Lopez-Beltran, Antonio; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Scarpelli, Marina

    2016-04-01

    The Gleason grading system was developed in the late 1960s by Dr. Donald F. Gleason. Due to changes in prostatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) detection and treatment, newer technologies to better characterize prostatic pathology, subsequently described variants of PAC and further data relating various morphologic patterns to prognosis, the application of the Gleason grading system changed substantially in surgical pathology. First in 2005 and more recently in 2014, consensus conferences were held to update PAC grading. Here, we review of the successive changes in the grading of PAC from the original system, with emphasis on the newest prognostic grade grouping. PMID:27008205

  3. Evaluation of the International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) and a Simpler Prognostic Score (IPS-3) for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era.

    PubMed

    Diefenbach, Catherine S; Li, Hailun; Hong, Fangxin; Gordon, Leo I; Fisher, Richard I; Bartlett, Nancy L; Crump, Michael; Gascoyne, Randy D; Wagner, Henry; Stiff, Patrick J; Cheson, Bruce D; Stewart, Douglas A; Kahl, Brad S; Friedberg, Jonathan W; Blum, Kristie A; Habermann, Thomas M; Tuscano, Joseph M; Hoppe, Richard T; Horning, Sandra J; Advani, Ranjana H

    2015-11-01

    The International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) is the most commonly used risk stratification tool for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), however recent studies suggest the IPS-7 is less discriminating due to improved outcomes with contemporary therapy. We evaluated the seven variables for IPS-7 recorded at study entry for 854 patients enrolled on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 2496 trial. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to assess their prognostic ability for freedom from progression (FFP) and overall survival (OS). The IPS-7 remained prognostic however its prognostic range has narrowed. On multivariate analysis, two factors (age, stage) remained significant for FFP and three factors (age, stage, haemoglobin level) for OS. An alternative prognostic index, the IPS-3, was constructed using age, stage and haemoglobin level, which provided four distinct risk groups [FFP (P = 0·0001) and OS (P < 0·0001)]. IPS-3 outperformed the IPS-7 on risk prediction for both FFP and OS by model fit and discrimination criteria. Using reclassification calibration, 18% of IPS-7 low risk patients were re-classified as intermediate risk and 13% of IPS-7 intermediate risk patients as low risk. For patients with advanced HL, the IPS-3 may provide a simpler and more accurate framework for risk assessment in the modern era. Validation of these findings in other large data sets is planned. PMID:26343802

  4. Evaluation of the International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) and a Simpler Prognostic Score (IPS-3) for Advanced Hodgkin Lymphoma in the Modern Era

    PubMed Central

    Diefenbach, C. S.; Li, H.; Hong, F.; Gordon, L. I.; Fisher, R. I.; Bartlett, N. L.; Crump, M.; Gascoyne, R. D.; Wagner, H.; Stiff, P. J.; Cheson, B. D.; Stewart, D. A.; Kahl, B. S.; Friedberg, J. W.; Blum, K. A.; Habermann, T. M.; Tuscano, J. M.; Hoppe, R. T.; Horning, S. J.; Advani, R. H.

    2016-01-01

    The international prognostic score (IPS-7) is the most commonly used risk stratification tool for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), however recent studies suggest the IPS-7 is less discriminating due to improved outcomes with contemporary therapy. We evaluated the seven variables for IPS-7 recorded at study entry for 854 patients enrolled on E2496. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to assess their prognostic ability for freedom from progression (FFP) and overall survival (OS). The IPS-7 remained prognostic however its prognostic range has narrowed. On multivariate analysis 2 factors (age, stage) remained significant for FFP and 3 factors (age, stage, hemoglobin) for OS. An alternative prognostic index, the IPS-3, was constructed using age, stage, and hemoglobin, which provided 4 distinct risk groups [FFP (p=0.0001) and OS (p<0.0001)]. IPS-3 outperformed the IPS-7 on risk prediction for both FFP and OS by model fit and discrimination criteria. Using reclassification calibration 18% of IPS-7 low risk patients were re-classified as intermediate risk and 13% of IPS-7 intermediate risk patients as low risk. For patients with advanced HL, the IPS-3 may provide a simpler and more accurate framework for risk assessment in the modern era. Validation of these findings in other large data sets is planned. PMID:26343802

  5. The Predictive Value of Scores Used in Intensive Care Unit for Burn Patients Prognostic

    PubMed Central

    NOVAC, M.; DRAGOESCU, ALICE; STANCULESCU, ANDREEA; DUCA, LUCICA; CERNEA, DANIELA

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Statistical evaluation of the prognosis of burned patients based on the analysis of prognostic scores as quickly and easily obtainable that track the evolution of burned patient in ICU. Material / Methods: The prospective study included 92 patients were performed with severe burns on 35-67% body surface large area, aiming to establish a cut-off score for each studied and statistically significant prognostic parameter for assessing the risk of mortality. The control group was represented by 20 patients with burns on the body surface of <10%. Results: The death rate was not statistically significant on burned (p> 0.05) sex (male / female), but we had p <0.001 when we referred to the total body surface area, and p <0.05 when we took into account the degree burns, acute respiratory distress syndrome and age. For each index / prognostic score studied by making ROC curve when they take different values, we set a cut-off. Quantification of variables by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), allowed a better appreciation of these prognostic scores. Conclusions: These systems applicable to the burned patient scores, making a cut-off of each index / mortality probability score, he can manifest usefulness in medical decision making process and strategy to reduce the risk of death in patients with severe burns. PMID:26793322

  6. Prognosis and Prognostic Scoring Models for Alcoholic Liver Disease and Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis.

    PubMed

    Gholam, Pierre M

    2016-08-01

    Multiple prognostic scoring systems have been developed to predict mortality from acute alcoholic hepatitis. Some systems, such as the modified discriminant function, are specific to alcoholic hepatitis. Others, such as the model for end-stage liver disease, apply to a broad range of liver diseases. Prognostic factors are better at predicting patients who are likely to survive rather than die of this condition at 30 and 90 days. This important shortcoming may be improved by combining scores for better prediction accuracy. PMID:27373611

  7. Prognostic value of lymphocyte/monocyte ratio in advanced Hodgkin lymphoma: correlation with International Prognostic Score and tumor associated macrophages.

    PubMed

    Jakovic, Ljubomir R; Mihaljevic, Biljana S; Andjelic, Bosko M; Bogdanovic, Andrija D; Perunicic Jovanovic, Maja D; Babic, Dragan D; Bumbasirevic, Vladimir Z

    2016-08-01

    We studied the prognostic significance of the absolute lymphocyte/monocyte count ratio (ALC/AMC), its contribution to the prognostic value of the International Prognostic Score (IPS), and evaluated if ALC/AMC could serve as a proxy for the frequency of CD68 + tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) in 101 patients with advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve identified best cut-off values of 2.0 for ALC/AMC and 25% for CD68 + TAM. Patients with ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM had an inferior overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS). Spearman's test also uncovered a significant correlation between the ALC/AMC and TAM. Multivariate analysis identified ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM as poor prognostic factors of OS and EFS. After evaluating ALC/AMC and IPS, we stratified patients into three progressively-worse-outcome groups (low-risk: 0 risk factors; intermediate: 1 risk factor; high: 2 risk factors). Our study encourages the combination of ALC/AMC with IPS, for refining risk prediction in advanced HL patients. PMID:26727349

  8. Prognostic Significance of Ascites and Serum Sodium in Patients with Low Meld Scores

    PubMed Central

    Prohic, Dzanela; Mesihovic, Rusmir; Vanis, Nenad; Puhalovic, Amra

    2016-01-01

    Objective: to determine ascites and serum sodium significance in short term mortality prediction in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. Methods: a cohort of 115 cirrhotic patients referred to our Department were followed up for 6 months in non-transplant settings. The c index equivalent to the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) was calculated and compared to estimate the short-term prognostic accuracy of the following parameters: ascites, serum sodium and MELD score. Results: in patients with a MELD score less than 21, ascites and low serum sodium (c index 0,687, p<0 0,001 and 0,748, p<0,001 respectively) showed better prognostic accuracy and were independent predictors of mortality. For MELD scores above 21, only MELD was an independent mortality prognostic factor (c index 0,710, p<0,001). Conclusion: in our study, sample ascites and low serum sodium help identify patients with advanced liver disease who are at high risk of mortality despite low MELD scores. These parameters should be considered as additional prognostic parameters that could improve available treatment options and outcomes in this group of patients. PMID:26980932

  9. Prediction of surgical outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy: A novel clinicoradiological prognostic score

    PubMed Central

    Aggarwal, Rishi Anil; Srivastava, Sudhir Kumar; Bhosale, Sunil Krishna; Nemade, Pradip Sharad

    2016-01-01

    Context: Preoperative severity of myelopathy, age, and duration of symptoms have been shown to be highly predictive of the outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy (CCM). The role of radiological parameters is still controversial. Aims: Define the prognostic factors in CCM and formulate a prognostic score to predict the outcome following surgery in CCM. Settings and Design: Retrospective. Materials and Methods: This study included 78 consecutive patients with CCM treated surgically. The modified Japanese Orthopaedic Association (mJOA) scale was used to quantify severity of myelopathy at admission and at 12-month follow-up. The outcome was defined as good if the patient had mJOA score ≥16 and poor if the score was <16. Age, sex, duration of symptoms, comorbidities, intrinsic hand muscle wasting (IHMW), diagnosis, surgical technique, Torg ratio, instability on dynamic radiographs, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal intensity changes were assessed. Statistics: Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) (version 20.0) was used for statistical analysis. The association was assessed amongst variables using logistic regression analysis. Parameters having a statistically significant correlation with the outcome were included in formulating a prognostic score. Results: Severity of myelopathy, IHMW, age, duration, diabetes, and instability on radiographs were predictive of the outcome with a P value <0.01. Genders, diagnosis, surgical procedure, Torg ratio, and intensity changes on MRI were not significantly related to the outcome. A 8-point scoring system was devised incorporating the significant clinicoradiological parameters, and it was found that nearly all patients (97.82%) with a score below 5 had good outcome and all patients (100%) with a score above 5 had poor outcome. The outcome is difficult to predict with a score of 5. Conclusions: Clinical parameters are better predictors of the outcome as compared to radiological findings, following

  10. A novel prognostic score for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

    PubMed

    Yi, Zhao-quan; Lu, Meng-hou; Xu, Xu-wen; Fu, Xiao-yu; Tan, De-ming

    2015-02-01

    Patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (HBV-ACLF) show high morbidity and mortality. Independent prognostic predictors of short-term HBV-ACLF mortality include the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, other MELD-based indices and the dynamic changes in these indices. The aims of this study were to evaluate the existing prognostic scores in a large cohort of HBV-ACLF patients and create a new predictive model. We retrospectively reviewed 392 HBV-ACLF patients from December 2008 to November 2011 and evaluated their 3-month survival. The predictive accuracy of CTP, MELD and MELD-based indices and the dynamic changes in the MELD-related scoresscoring systems) upon admission and after two weeks of treatment were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method. Life-threatening factors and a series of bio-clinical parameters were studied by univariate and multivariate analyses. Among the existing scores, MELD had the best predictive ability. However, our new regression model provided an area under the curve of 0.930 ± 0.0161 (95% CI: 0.869 to 0.943), which was significantly larger than that obtained with the MELD score at admission and after two weeks of treatment as well as with the dynamic changes of the MELD score (0.819, 0.921, and 0.826, respectively) (Z=3.542, P=0.0004). In a large cohort of patients retrospectively reviewed for this study, our prognostic model was superior to the MELD score and is, therefore, a promising predictor of short-term survival in patients with HBV-ACLF. PMID:25673199

  11. Comparison of Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, BISAP, APACHE-II, CTSI Scores, IL-6, CRP, and Procalcitonin in Predicting Severity, Organ Failure, Pancreatic Necrosis, and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

    PubMed Central

    Khanna, Ajay K.; Meher, Susanta; Prakash, Shashi; Tiwary, Satyendra Kumar; Singh, Usha; Srivastava, Arvind; Dixit, V. K.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Multifactorial scorings, radiological scores, and biochemical markers may help in early prediction of severity, pancreatic necrosis, and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. BISAP, APACHE-II, MOSS, and SIRS scores were calculated using data within 24 hrs of admission, whereas Ranson and Glasgow scores after 48 hrs of admission; CTSI was calculated on day 4 whereas IL-6 and CRP values at end of study. Predictive accuracy of scoring systems, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of various markers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, admission to intensive care units and mortality were calculated. Results. Of 72 patients, 31 patients had organ failure and local complication classified as severe acute pancreatitis, 17 had pancreatic necrosis, and 9 died (12.5%). Area under curves for Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, APACHE-II, BISAP, CTSI, IL-6, and CRP in predicting SAP were 0.85, 0.75, 0.73, 0.73, 0.88, 0.80, 0.90, and 0.91, respectively, for pancreatic necrosis 0.70, 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.68, 0.61, 0.75, 0.86, and 0.90, respectively, and for mortality 0.84, 0.83, 0.77, 0.76, 0.86, 0.83, 0.57, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively. Conclusion. CRP and IL-6 have shown a promising result in early detection of severity and pancreatic necrosis whereas APACHE-II and Ranson score in predicting AP related mortality in this study. PMID:24204087

  12. Analysis of prognostic factors and comparison of prognostic scores in peripheral T cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified: a single-institution study of 105 Chinese patients.

    PubMed

    Xu, Pengpeng; Yu, Dong; Wang, Li; Shen, Yang; Shen, Zhixiang; Zhao, Weili

    2015-02-01

    Peripheral T cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified (PTCL-NOS) is a heterogeneous subtype of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. This study aims to better define the prognostic factors and compare the predictive value of the prognostic scores in Chinese patients with PTCL-NOS. One hundred and five patients diagnosed as PTCL-NOS from our institution were retrospectively studied and grouped according to four previously described prognostic scores [International Prognostic Index (IPI), Prognostic Index for PTCL-NOS (PIT), modified PIT (m-PIT), and International PTCL Project (IPTCLP)]. In addition to clinical parameters, peripheral lymphopenia and thrombocytopenia, serum Epstein-Barr virus positivity, and tumor Ki-67 were significantly associated with poor disease outcome. Multivariate analysis revealed that age >60 years, poor performance status, elevated lactic dehydrogenase, and bone marrow involvement were independent adverse variables for survival. All prognostic scores were successful for survival estimation. Risk subgroups in IPI and PIT could be further discriminated by platelet count (IPTCLP factor) and Ki-67 (m-PIT factor), respectively. Together, patient- and tumor-specific characteristics may be incorporated in risk stratification of PTCL-NOS patients. The prognostic scores could be mutually active to improve their predictive value of disease outcome. PMID:25193354

  13. A Systematic Review of the Prognostic Role of Hematologic Scoring Systems in Patients With Renal Cell Carcinoma Undergoing Nephrectomy With Curative Intent.

    PubMed

    Grimes, Nathan; Tyson, Matthew; Hannan, Cathal; Mulholland, Colin

    2016-08-01

    The objective is to evaluate the prognostic benefit of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and Prognostic Nutrition Index (PNI) in patients with localized renal cell carcinoma undergoing nephrectomy with curative intent. Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched for all publications before April 2015. Duplicates were excluded, and inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied to all abstracts; of those remaining, full articles were obtained and inclusion/exclusion criteria were again applied, and the remaining articles were included and critically appraised. Eight articles were included in this review. Three articles were included for GPS. Outcomes included recurrence-free survival, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). All articles demonstrated better prognosis associated with a lower GPS on multivariate analysis: 1-year recurrence-free survival hazard ratio (HR), 7.0 (P = .001); CSS HR, 6.7 to 8.6 (P < .001); and OS HR 4.2 (P < .001). Four articles were included for NLR. All articles demonstrated elevated NLR to be associated with a poorer prognosis. Two articles demonstrated elevated NLR to be associated with a lower progression-free survival. One article demonstrated elevated NLR to be associated with a lower CSS (HR, 1.02, P = .009), and 2 articles demonstrated elevated NLR to be associated with a lower OS (HR, 1.02-1.6). No articles were included for PLR, and only 1 article was identified for PNI. There may be a role for modified GPS and NLR in patients with renal cell carcinoma undergoing nephrectomy with curative intent. Evidence for PLR and PNI is minimal. PMID:26949171

  14. Comparison of outcome predictions by the Glasgow coma scale and the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score in the neurological and neurosurgical patients in the Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Khanal, Kishor; Bhandari, Sanjeeb Sudarshan; Shrestha, Ninadini; Acharya, Subhash Prasad; Marhatta, Moda Nath

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of level of consciousness is very important in predicting patient's outcome from neurological illness. Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is the most commonly used scale, and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score is also recently validated as an alternative to GCS in the evaluation of the level of consciousness. We carried out a prospective study in 97 patients aged above 16 years. We measured GCS and FOUR score within 24 h of Intensive Care Unit admission. The mean GCS and the FOUR scores were lower among nonsurvivors than among the survivors and were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Discrimination for GCS and FOUR score was fair with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. The cutoff point with best Youden index for GCS and FOUR score was 6.5 each. Below the cutoff point, mortality was higher in both models (P < 0.001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square coefficient test showed better calibration with FOUR score than GCS. A positive correlation was seen between the models with Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.91 (P < 0.001).

  15. Prognostic Scoring Indicator in Evaluation of Clinical Outcome In Intestinal Perforations

    PubMed Central

    Ahuja, Ashish; Pal, Ravinder

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Acute generalised peritonitis coming forth due to underlying intestinal perforation is a critical & life-threatening medical condition. It is a common surgical emergency most of the times across the world. Misleading data on crude morbidity and mortality due to the condition usually contaminates substantially the very purpose of medical audit. Thus, early prognostic evaluation is not only desirable but mandate to much extent. High-risk patients require timely & aggressive treatment especially in severe peritonitis & to select them reasonably well, evaluation through prognostic scoring is an approach of choice. Well sought after & reasonably reliable APACHE II scoring system is used for the purpose & scores are correlated well to accentuate & measure the various factors needed for better management of condition. Material and Methods: The study was conducted over the period of 18 months (Jan 2010 to June 2011) on 50 patients with confirmed diagnosis of intestinal perforation. APACHE II score was calculated and correlated with their symptoms & clinical outcomes regarding morbidity and mortality. Results: APACHE II score correlated well with the outcome of the study, showing score affects of two major aspects in the treatment outcome & management.1.) APACHE II score of less than 10 included 30 low risk group patients discharged in a satisfactory gratifying manner. Three out of four in high risk group with APACHE II score >20, shown adverse outcomes. 2.)Mean ICU stay of 9.75 days was found in patients with APACHE II score 20 or more compared to those with mean ICU stay of 0.13 days in patients with APACHE II score 10 or less. Conclusion: Acute generalized peritonitis being life–threatening medical emergency requires careful consideration in its management that needs to be economically viable, acceptably feasible and outcome oriented with better allocation & utilization of ICU resources that needs meticulous case analysis & prioritization. This present

  16. A Combined Pulmonary Function and Emphysema Score Prognostic Index for Staging in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

    PubMed Central

    Boutou, Afroditi K.; Nair, Arjun; Douraghi-Zadeh, Dariush; Sandhu, Ranbir; Hansell, David M.; Wells, Athol U.; Polkey, Michael I.; Hopkinson, Nicholas S.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Lung computed tomography parameters, individually or as part of a composite index, may provide more prognostic information than pulmonary function tests alone. Aim To investigate the prognostic value of emphysema score and pulmonary artery measurements compared with lung function parameters in COPD and construct a prognostic index using a contingent staging approach. Material-Methods Predictors of mortality were assessed in COPD outpatients whose lung computed tomography, spirometry, lung volumes and gas transfer data were collected prospectively in a clinical database. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis models with bootstrap techniques were used. Results 169 patients were included (59.8% male, 61.1 years old; Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second % predicted: 40.5±19.2). 20.1% died; mean survival was 115.4 months. Age (HR = 1.098, 95% Cl = 1.04–1.252) and emphysema score (HR = 1.034, 95% CI = 1.007–1.07) were the only independent predictors of mortality. Pulmonary artery dimensions were not associated with survival. An emphysema score of 55% was chosen as the optimal threshold and 30% and 65% as suboptimals. Where emphysema score was between 30% and 65% (intermediate risk) the optimal lung volume threshold, a functional residual capacity of 210% predicted, was applied. This contingent staging approach separated patients with an intermediate risk based on emphysema score alone into high risk (Functional Residual Capacity ≥210% predicted) or low risk (Functional Residual Capacity <210% predicted). This approach was more discriminatory for survival (HR = 3.123; 95% CI = 1.094–10.412) than either individual component alone. Conclusion Although to an extent limited by the small sample size, this preliminary study indicates that the composite Emphysema score-Functional Residual Capacity index might provide

  17. Performance of four ischemic stroke prognostic scores in a Brazilian population.

    PubMed

    Kuster, Gustavo W; Dutra, Lívia A; Brasil, Israel P; Pacheco, Evelyn P; Arruda, Márcio J C; Volcov, Cristiane; Domingues, Renan B

    2016-02-01

    Objective Ischemic stroke (IS) prognostic scales may help clinicians in their clinical decisions. This study aimed to assess the performance of four IS prognostic scales in a Brazilian population. Method We evaluated data of IS patients admitted at Hospital Paulistano, a Joint Commission International certified primary stroke center. In-hospital mortality and modified Rankin score at discharge were defined as the outcome measures. The performance of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Stroke Prognostication Using Age and NIHSS (SPAN-100), Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) were compared. Results Two hundred six patients with a mean ± SD age of 67.58 ± 15.5 years, being 55.3% male, were included. The four scales were significantly and independently associated functional outcome. Only THRIVE was associated with in-hospital mortality. With area under the curve THRIVE and NIHSS were the scales with better performance for functional outcome and THRIVE had the best performance for mortality. Conclusion THRIVE showed the best performance among the four scales, being the only associated with in-hospital mortality. PMID:26982991

  18. Prognostic factors and scoring systems in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia: a retrospective analysis of 213 patients.

    PubMed

    Onida, Francesco; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Smith, Terry L; Ball, Greg; Keating, Michael J; Estey, Elihu H; Glassman, Armand B; Albitar, Maher; Kwari, Monica I; Beran, Miloslav

    2002-02-01

    Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a hematologic malignancy characterized by wide heterogeneity of clinical presentation and course. CMML shares myelodysplastic characteristics with features of myeloproliferative disorders. No treatment has proven effective in modifying the natural course of the disease. To improve the prognostic assessment of clinical outcome, the associations of patient and disease characteristics with survival times of 213 patients with CMML was investigated retrospectively. Median survival was 12 months. Univariate analysis identified low hemoglobin level; low platelet count; high white blood cell, monocyte, and lymphocyte counts; presence of circulating immature myeloid cells, high percentage of marrow blasts, low percentage of marrow erythroid cells, abnormal cytogenetics, and high levels of serum lactate dehydrogenase and beta(2)-microglobulin as characteristics associated with shorter survival. Hemoglobin level below 120 g/L (12 g/dL), presence of circulating immature myeloid cells, absolute lymphocyte count above 2.5 x 10(9)/L, and marrow blasts 10% or more were independently associated with shorter survival by multivariate analysis and were used to generate a prognostic score. The model identified 4 subgroups of patients with median survival of 24, 15, 8, and 5 months for low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2, and high risk, respectively. Researchers could not confer objective evidence suggesting that arbitrary divisions of CMML by white blood cell counts into "dysplastic" and "proliferative" categories reflect clinical entities differing in the risk of acute leukemia development, although a trend of shorter survival in patients with leukocytosis was observed. The prognostic model was compared with 6 previously published scoring systems for myelodysplastic syndrome/CMML. The reported results should provide an improved assessment of prognosis in CMML. PMID:11806985

  19. Survival Prediction for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients: Revision of the Palliative Prognostic Score with Incorporation of Delirium

    PubMed Central

    Maltoni, Marco; Miceli, Rosalba; Mariani, Luigi; Caraceni, Augusto; Amadori, Dino; Nanni, Oriana

    2011-01-01

    Purpose. An existing and validated palliative prognostic (PaP) score predicts survival in terminally ill cancer patients based on dyspnea, anorexia, Karnofsky performance status score, clinical prediction of survival, total WBC, and lymphocyte percentage. The PaP score assigns patients to three different risk groups according to a 30-day survival probability—group A, >70%; group B, 30%–70%; group C, <30%. The impact of delirium is known but was not incorporated into the PaP score. Materials and Methods. Our aim was to incorporate information on delirium into the PaP score based on a retrospective series of 361 terminally ill cancer patients. We followed the approach of “validation by calibration,” proposed by van Houwelingen and later adapted by Miceli for achieving score revision with inclusion of a new variable. The discriminating performance of the scores was estimated using the K statistic. Results. The prognostic contribution of delirium was confirmed as statistically significant (p < .001) and the variable was accordingly incorporated into the PaP score (D-PaP score). Following this revision, 30-day survival estimates in groups A, B, and C were 83%, 50%, and 9% for the D-PaP score and 87%, 51%, and 16% for the PaP score, respectively. The overall performance of the D-PaP score was better than that of the PaP score. Conclusion. The revision of the PaP score was carried out by modifying the cutoff values used for prognostic grouping without, however, affecting the partial scores of the original tool. The performance of the D-PaP score was better than that of the PaP score and its key feature of simplicity was maintained. PMID:22042788

  20. Validation of WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) for myelodysplastic syndromes and comparison with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). A study of the International Working Group for Prognosis in Myelodysplasia (IWG-PM).

    PubMed

    Della Porta, M G; Tuechler, H; Malcovati, L; Schanz, J; Sanz, G; Garcia-Manero, G; Solé, F; Bennett, J M; Bowen, D; Fenaux, P; Dreyfus, F; Kantarjian, H; Kuendgen, A; Levis, A; Cermak, J; Fonatsch, C; Le Beau, M M; Slovak, M L; Krieger, O; Luebbert, M; Maciejewski, J; Magalhaes, S M M; Miyazaki, Y; Pfeilstöcker, M; Sekeres, M A; Sperr, W R; Stauder, R; Tauro, S; Valent, P; Vallespi, T; van de Loosdrecht, A A; Germing, U; Haase, D; Greenberg, P L; Cazzola, M

    2015-07-01

    A risk-adapted treatment strategy is mandatory for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). We refined the World Health Organization (WHO)-classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) by determining the impact of the newer clinical and cytogenetic features, and we compared its prognostic power to that of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). A population of 5326 untreated MDS was considered. We analyzed single WPSS parameters and confirmed that the WHO classification and severe anemia provide important prognostic information in MDS. A strong correlation was found between the WPSS including the new cytogenetic risk stratification and WPSS adopting original criteria. We then compared WPSS with the IPSS-R prognostic system. A highly significant correlation was found between the WPSS and IPSS-R risk classifications. Discrepancies did occur among lower-risk patients in whom the number of dysplastic hematopoietic lineages as assessed by morphology did not reflect the severity of peripheral blood cytopenias and/or increased marrow blast count. Moreover, severe anemia has higher prognostic weight in the WPSS versus IPSS-R model. Overall, both systems well represent the prognostic risk of MDS patients defined by WHO morphologic criteria. This study provides relevant in formation for the implementation of risk-adapted strategies in MDS. PMID:25721895

  1. Usefulness of staging systems and prognostic scores for hepatocellular carcinoma treatments.

    PubMed

    Adhoute, Xavier; Penaranda, Guillaume; Raoul, Jean Luc; Le Treut, Patrice; Bollon, Emilie; Hardwigsen, Jean; Castellani, Paul; Perrier, Hervé; Bourlière, Marc

    2016-06-18

    Therapeutic management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is quite complex owing to the underlying cirrhosis and portal vein hypertension. Different scores or classification systems based on liver function and tumoral stages have been published in the recent years. If none of them is currently "universally" recognized, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has become the reference classification system in Western countries. Based on a robust treatment algorithm associated with stage stratification, it relies on a high level of evidence. However, BCLC stage B and C HCC include a broad spectrum of tumors but are only matched with a single therapeutic option. Some experts have thus suggested to extend the indications for surgery or for transarterial chemoembolization. In clinical practice, many patients are already treated beyond the scope of recommendations. Additional alternative prognostic scores that could be applied to any therapeutic modality have been recently proposed. They could represent complementary tools to the BCLC staging system and improve the stratification of HCC patients enrolled in clinical trials, as illustrated by the NIACE score. Prospective studies are needed to compare these scores and refine their role in the decision making process. PMID:27330679

  2. Usefulness of staging systems and prognostic scores for hepatocellular carcinoma treatments

    PubMed Central

    Adhoute, Xavier; Penaranda, Guillaume; Raoul, Jean Luc; Le Treut, Patrice; Bollon, Emilie; Hardwigsen, Jean; Castellani, Paul; Perrier, Hervé; Bourlière, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Therapeutic management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is quite complex owing to the underlying cirrhosis and portal vein hypertension. Different scores or classification systems based on liver function and tumoral stages have been published in the recent years. If none of them is currently “universally” recognized, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has become the reference classification system in Western countries. Based on a robust treatment algorithm associated with stage stratification, it relies on a high level of evidence. However, BCLC stage B and C HCC include a broad spectrum of tumors but are only matched with a single therapeutic option. Some experts have thus suggested to extend the indications for surgery or for transarterial chemoembolization. In clinical practice, many patients are already treated beyond the scope of recommendations. Additional alternative prognostic scores that could be applied to any therapeutic modality have been recently proposed. They could represent complementary tools to the BCLC staging system and improve the stratification of HCC patients enrolled in clinical trials, as illustrated by the NIACE score. Prospective studies are needed to compare these scores and refine their role in the decision making process. PMID:27330679

  3. A magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic scoring system to predict outcome in transplant-eligible patients with multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Mai, Elias K.; Hielscher, Thomas; Kloth, Jost K.; Merz, Maximilian; Shah, Sofia; Raab, Marc S.; Hillengass, Michaela; Wagner, Barbara; Jauch, Anna; Hose, Dirk; Weber, Marc-André; Delorme, Stefan; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Hillengass, Jens

    2015-01-01

    Diffuse and focal bone marrow infiltration patterns detected by magnetic resonance imaging have been shown to be of prognostic significance in all stages of monoclonal plasma cell disorders and have, therefore, been incorporated into the definition of the disease. The aim of this retrospective analysis was to develop a rapidly evaluable prognostic scoring system, incorporating the most significant information acquired from magnetic resonance imaging. Therefore, the impact of bone marrow infiltration patterns on progression-free and overall survival in 161 transplant-eligible myeloma patients was evaluated. Compared to salt and pepper/minimal diffuse infiltration, moderate/severe diffuse infiltration had a negative prognostic impact on both progression-free survival (P<0.001) and overall survival (P=0.003). More than 25 focal lesions on whole-body magnetic resonance imaging or more than seven on axial magnetic resonance imaging were associated with an adverse prognosis (progression-free survival: P=0.001/0.003 and overall survival: P=0.04/0.02). A magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic scoring system, combining grouped diffuse and focal infiltration patterns, was formulated and is applicable to whole-body as well as axial magnetic resonance imaging. The score identified high-risk patients with median progression-free and overall survival of 23.4 and 55.9 months, respectively (whole-body-based). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that the magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic score stage III (high-risk) and adverse cytogenetics are independent prognostic factors for both progression-free and overall survival (whole-body-based, progression-free survival: hazard ratio=3.65, P<0.001; overall survival: hazard ratio=5.19, P=0.005). In conclusion, we suggest a magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic scoring system which is a robust, easy to assess and interpret parameter summarizing significant magnetic resonance imaging findings in transplant

  4. Montreal prognostic score: estimating survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer using clinical biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Gagnon, B; Agulnik, J S; Gioulbasanis, I; Kasymjanova, G; Morris, D; MacDonald, N

    2013-01-01

    Background: For evidence-based medical practice, well-defined risk scoring systems are essential to identify patients with a poor prognosis. The objective of this study was to develop a prognostic score, the Montreal prognostic score (MPS), to improve prognostication of patients with incurable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in everyday practice. Methods: A training cohort (TC) and a confirmatory cohort (CC) of newly diagnosed patients with NSCLC planning to receive chemotherapy were used to develop the MPS. Stage and clinically available biomarkers were entered into a Cox model and risk weights were estimated. C-statistics were used to test the accuracy. Results: The TC consisted of 258 patients and the CC consisted of 433 patients. Montreal prognostic score classified patients into three distinct groups with median survivals of 2.5 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8, 4.2), 8.2 months (95% CI: 7.0, 9.4) and 18.2 months (95% CI: 14.0, 27.5), respectively (log-rank, P<0.001). Overall, the C-statistics were 0.691 (95% CI: 0.685, 0.697) for the TC and 0.665 (95% CI: 0.661, 0.670) for the CC. Conclusion: The MPS, by classifying patients into three well-defined prognostic groups, provides valuable information, which physicians could use to better inform their patients about treatment options, especially the best timing to involve palliative care teams. PMID:24064979

  5. A novel sialyl LeX expression score as a potential prognostic tool in colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Treatment decisions in colorectal cancer subsequent to surgery are based mainly on the TNM system. There is a need to establish novel prognostic markers based on the molecular characterization of tumor cells. Evidence exists that sialyl LeX expression is correlated with an unfavorable outcome in colorectal cancer. The aim of this study was to establish a simple sialyl LeX staining score and to determine a potential correlation with the prognosis in a series of advanced colorectal carcinoma patients. Methods In order to implement routine use of sialyl LeX immunohistology, we established a new, easily reproducible score and defined a cutoff which discriminated groups with better or worse outcome, respectively. We then correlated sialyl LeX expression of 215 UICC stage III and IV patients with disease-free and cancer-related survival. Results A five-stage score could be established based on automated immunohistochemical stainings. Using a statistical model, we calculated a cutoff to discriminate between weak and strong staining positivity of sialyl LeX. Patients with strong positive specimens had a worse cancer-related survival (P = 0.004) but no difference was observed for disease-free survival (P = 0.352). Conclusions These results demonstrate a strong correlation between high sialyl LeX-expression in colorectal carcinomas and cancer-related survival. Our highly standardized and easy-to-use staining score is suitable for routine use and hence it could be recommended to evaluate sialyl LeX-expression as part of the standard histopathological analysis of colorectal carcinomas and to validate the score prospectively based on a larger population. PMID:22621806

  6. The Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System for myelofibrosis predicts outcomes after hematopoietic cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Scott, Bart L; Gooley, Ted A; Sorror, Mohamed L; Rezvani, Andrew R; Linenberger, Michael L; Grim, Jonathan; Sandmaier, Brenda M; Myerson, David; Chauncey, Thomas R; Storb, Rainer; Buxhofer-Ausch, Veronika; Radich, Jerald P; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Deeg, H Joachim

    2012-03-15

    Studies by the International Working Group showed that the prognosis of myelofibrosis patients is predicted by the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) risk categorization, which includes patient age, constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin, leukocyte count, and circulating blasts. We evaluated the prognostic usefulness of the DIPSS in 170 patients with myelofibrosis, 12 to 78 years of age (median, 51.5 years of age), who received hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) between 1990 and 2009 from related (n = 86) or unrelated donors (n = 84). By DIPSS, 21 patients had low-risk disease, 48 had intermediate-1, 50 had intermediate-2, and 51 had high-risk disease. Five-year incidence of relapse, relapse-free survival, overall survival, and nonrelapse mortality for all patients were 10%, 57%, 57%, and 34%, respectively. Among patients with DIPSS high-risk disease, the hazard ratio for post-HCT mortality was 4.11 (95% CI, 1.44-11.78; P = .008), and for nonrelapse mortality was 3.41 (95% CI, 1.15-10.09; P = .03) compared with low-risk patients. After a median follow-up of 5.9 years, the median survivals have not been reached for DIPSS risk groups low and intermediate-1, and were 7 and 2.5 years for intermediate-2 and high-risk patients, respectively. Thus, HCT was curative for a large proportion of patients with myelofibrosis, and post-HCT success was dependent on pre-HCT DIPSS classification. PMID:22234678

  7. Tumor budding score based on 10 high-power fields is a promising basis for a standardized prognostic scoring system in stage II colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Horcic, Milo; Koelzer, Viktor H; Karamitopoulou, Eva; Terracciano, Luigi; Puppa, Giacomo; Zlobec, Inti; Lugli, Alessandro

    2013-05-01

    Tumor budding is recognized by the World Health Organization as an additional prognostic factor in colorectal cancer but remains unreported in diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. This study aims to assess the most prognostic and reproducible scoring systems for tumor budding in colorectal cancer. Tumor budding on pancytokeratin-stained whole tissue sections from 105 well-characterized stage II patients was scored by 3 observers using 7 methods: Hase, Nakamura, Ueno, Wang (conventional and rapid method), densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power fields. The predictive value for clinicopathologic features, the prognostic significance, and interobserver variability of each scoring method was analyzed. Pancytokeratin staining allowed accurate evaluation of tumor buds. Interobserver agreement for 3 observers was excellent for densest high-power field (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and 10 densest high-power fields (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91). Agreement was moderate to substantial for the conventional Wang method (κ = 0.46-0.62) and moderate for the rapid method (κ = 0.46-0.58). For Nakamura, moderate agreement (κ = 0.41-0.52) was reached, whereas concordance was fair to moderate for Ueno (κ = 0.39-0.56) and Hase (κ = 0.29-0.51). The Hase, Ueno, densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power field methods identified a significant association of tumor budding with tumor border configuration. In multivariate analysis, only tumor budding as evaluated in densest high-power field and 10 densest high-power fields had significant prognostic effects on patient survival (P < .01), with high prognostic accuracy over the full 10-year follow-up. Scoring tumor buds in 10 densest high-power fields is a promising method to identify stage II patients at high risk for recurrence in daily diagnostics; it is highly reproducible, accounts for heterogeneity, and has a strong predictive value for adverse outcome

  8. Prognostic scoring systems for infectious diseases: their applicability to the care of older adults.

    PubMed

    Juthani-Mehta, Manisha; Quagliarello, Vincent J

    2004-03-01

    Physicians often make clinical predictions about individual patients. For many infectious diseases, published prognostic scoring systems (PSSs) can help predict relevant outcomes. Validated PSSs exist for the general adult population for diseases such as pneumonia, endocarditis, meningitis, and bloodstream infection. Although these PSSs have been rigorously derived and validated, they have limited value in the care of older adults, because most studies have involved a heterogeneous adult population with mortality as the primary end point. In the United States, the number of patients who are > or =65 years old is growing, and their health care costs are increasing. Assessment of clinical outcomes other than merely survival (i.e., physical functional ability, cognitive ability, need for nursing home care, and overall quality of life) is required for this population. Some pioneering work has been done to develop PSSs that specifically address the health care needs of older adults. This review will describe existing PSSs and explore areas of further investigation. PMID:14986254

  9. Multiple Brain Abscesses due to Streptococcus anginosus: Prediction of Mortality by an Imaging Severity Index Score

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    An elderly patient with altered mental status, brain abscesses, ventriculitis, and empyemas died of septic shock and brain abscesses secondary to Streptococcus anginosus despite aggressive treatment. An imaging severity index score with a better prognostic value than the Glasgow coma scale predicted mortality in this patient. PMID:27034878

  10. Prognostic indicators in primary biliary cirrhosis: significance of revised IAHG (International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group) score

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Ho Eun; Jeong, Soung Won; Kim, Jin Nyoung; Jang, Hee Yoon; Cho, Yun Ju; Woo, Sung Ae; Lee, Sae Hwan; Kim, Sang Gyune; Cha, Sang-Woo; Kim, Young Seok; Cho, Young Deok; Kim, Hong Soo; Kim, Boo Sung

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aims Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a slowly progressing autoimmune disease of the liver that is characterized by portal inflammation and immune-mediated destruction of the intrahepatic bile ducts. Serum total bilirubin is one of the various prognostic factors that have been proposed. A recent study found that PBC with accompanying autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) carries a negative prognosis. This study examined the clinical characteristics of PBC and analyzed the factors that affect its prognosis. Methods Patients diagnosed with PBC between January 1998 and December 2010 based on clinical and histopathological findings were compiled and analyzed retrospectively. Results Among 27 patients, 24 (1 male and 23 females, ages 50.0±9.3 years) were followed up. The follow-up period was 8.6±0.9 years. Of the 24 patients, 9 patients progressed to liver cirrhosis (LC). Comparison between patients who did and did not progress to LC revealed statistically significant differences in the patients' serum total bilirubin (2.7±1.8 vs. 0.8±0.4, P=0.012), the Mayo risk score (5.1±0.7 vs. 3.9±0.6, P=0.001), the revised IAHG (International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group) score (9.2±2.3 vs. 5.4±3.0, P=0.004) and frequency of AIH overlap (5/9 [55.6%] vs. 0/15 [0%], P=0.001) at the time of diagnosis. Conclusions We propose that serum total bilirubin, the Mayo risk score, and the revised IAHG score at the time of diagnosis are helpful for predicting PBC prognosis. In particular, since all of the patients with accompanying AIH progressed to LC, the presence of overlap syndrome at the time of diagnosis is helpful for predicting PBC prognosis and providing an adequate treatment. PMID:23323253

  11. Overview of different scoring systems in Fournier’s Gangrene and assessment of prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Doluoğlu, Ömer Gökhan; Karagöz, Mehmet Ali; Kılınç, Muhammet Fatih; Karakan, Tolga; Yücetürk, Cem Nedim; Sarıcı, Haşmet; Özgür, Berat Cem; Eroğlu, Muzaffer

    2016-01-01

    Objective In this study we aimed to evaluate prognostic factors for the survival of patients with Fournier’s gangrene (FG), and overview different validated scoring systems for outcome prediction. Material and methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 39 patients treated for FG in our clinic. Data were collected on medical history, symptoms, physical examination findings, vital signs, laboratory parameters at admission and at the end of treatment, timing and extent of surgical debridement, and the antibiotic treatment used. The Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used to predict outcome. The data were analyzed in relation with the survival of the patients. Mann-Whitney U test, chi -square test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and Cox regression analysis were used for the statistical analysis. Results Of 39 patients analyzed, 8 (20.5%) died and 31 (79.5%) survived. The median FGSI score on admission was 2 (0–9) for the survivors and 6 (2–14) for the non-survivors (p=0.004). The median CCI scores of the survivors and non-survivors were 2 (0–10) and 6.5 (5–11), respectively (p=0.001). Except for urea, albumin and hematocrit levels, no significant differences were found between survivors and non-survivors for other laboratory parameters on admission. Lower albumin levels and advanced age were found to be associated with mortality. Conclusion High blood urea, low albumin, and low hematocrit levels were associated with poor prognosis. High CCI and FGSI scores could be associated with a poor prognosis in patients with FG.

  12. The use of an In House Scoring System Scale versus Glasgow Coma Scale in non-traumatic altered states of consciousness patients: can it be used for triaging patients in Southeast Asian developing countries?

    PubMed

    Maheswaran, M; Adnan, W A W; Ahmad, R; Ab Rahman, N H N; Naing, N N; Abdullah, J

    2007-11-01

    Non-traumatic Altered States of Consciousness (ASC) are a non-specific consequence of various etiologies, and are normally monitored by Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The GCS gives varriable results among untrained emergency medicine personel in developing countries where English is not the first language. An In House Scoring System (IHSS) scale was made by the first author for the purpose of triaging so as to quickly asses patients when seen by medical personel. This IHSS scale was compared to the GCS to determine it's specificity and sensitivity in the accident and emergency department (ED) of Hospital University Sains Malaysia (HUSM). All patients with non-traumatic ASC were selected by purposive sampling according to pre-determined criteria. Patients were evaluated by the two systems, IHSS and GCS, by emergency physicians who were on call. Patient demographics, clinical features, investigations, treatment given and outcomes were collected and followed for a period of 14 days. A total of 221 patients with non-traumatic ASC were studied, 54.3% were males. The mean age of the patients was 56 years old. The mean overall GCS score on presentation to the ED was 10.3. The mean duration of ASC was 11.6 hours. One hundred thirty patients (58.8%) experienced ASC secondary to general or focal cerebral disorders. The mortality rate was 40.3% 2 weeks after the ED visit. Fifty-four point three percent of the patients were awake and considered to have good outcomes while 45.7% of the patients had poor outcomes (comatose or dead) 2 weeks after the ED visit. The mean overall GCS score, verbal and motor subscores as well as the IHSS had significantly decreased (worsened) after treatment in the ED. A poor IHSS scale, hypertension, current smoking, abnormal pupillary reflexes and acidosis were associated with a worse 2-week outcome. The mean age and WBC count was lower and the mean overall GCS score and eye, verbal and motor subscores were higher as well as those having a lower IHSS

  13. Silica research in Glasgow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barr, B. W.; Cagnoli, G.; Casey, M. M.; Clubley, D.; Crooks, D. R. M.; Danzmann, K.; Elliffe, E. J.; Goßler, S.; Grant, A.; Grote, H.; Heptonstall, A.; Hough, J.; Jennrich, O.; Lück, H.; McIntosh, S. A.; Newton, G. P.; Palmer, D. A.; Plissi, M. V.; Robertson, D. I.; Robertson, N. A.; Rowan, S.; Skeldon, K. D.; Sneddon, P.; Strain, K. A.; Torrie, C. I.; Ward, H.; Willems, P. A.; Willke, B.; Winkler, W.

    2002-04-01

    The Glasgow group is involved in the construction of the GEO600 interferometer as well as in R&D activity on technology for advanced gravitational wave detectors. GEO600 will be the first GW detector using quasi-monolithic silica suspensions in order to decrease thermal noise significantly with respect to steel wire suspensions. The results concerning GEO600 suspension mounting and performance will be shown in the first section. Section 2 is devoted to the present results from the direct measurement of thermal noise in mirrors mounted in the 10 m interferometer in Glasgow which has a sensitivity limit of 4 × 10-19 m Hz-1/2 above 1 kHz. Section 3 presents results on the measurements of coating losses. R&D activity has been carried out to understand better how thermal noise in the suspensions affects the detector sensitivity, and in section 4 a discussion on the non-linear thermoelastic effect is presented.

  14. A Novel and Validated Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) Predicts Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Curative Surgical Resection

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Yi-Peng; Ni, Xiao-Chun; Yi, Yong; Cai, Xiao-Yan; He, Hong-Wei; Wang, Jia-Xing; Lu, Zhu-Feng; Han, Xu; Cao, Ya; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Qiu, Shuang-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Abstract As chronic inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we investigated the prognostic accuracy of a cluster of inflammatory scores, including the Glasgow Prognostic Score, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, Prognostic Nutritional Index, Prognostic Index, and a novel Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) integrated preoperative and postoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in 2 independent cohorts. Further, we aimed to formulate an effective prognostic nomogram for HCC after hepatectomy. Prognostic value of inflammatory scores and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were studied in a training cohort of 772 patients with HCC underwent hepatectomy. Independent predictors of survival identified in multivariate analysis were validated in an independent set of 349 patients with an overall similar clinical feature. In both training and validation cohorts, IBS, microscopic vascular invasion, and BCLC stage emerged as independent factors of overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The predictive capacity of the IBS in both OS and RFS appeared superior to that of the other inflammatory scores in terms of C-index. Additionally, the formulated nomogram comprised IBS resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction compared with BCLC stage alone. IBS is a novel and validated prognostic indicator of HCC after curative resection, and a robust HCC nomogram including IBS was developed to predict survival for patients after hepatectomy. PMID:26886627

  15. Prognostic sub-classification of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter cohort study with propensity score analysis.

    PubMed

    Ramaswami, Ramya; Pinato, David J; Kubota, Keiichi; Ishizuka, Mitsuru; Arizumi, Tadaaki; Kudo, Masatoshi; Jang, Jeong Won; Kim, Young Woon; Pirisi, Mario; Allara, Elias; Sharma, Rohini

    2016-10-01

    There is significant heterogeneity in the clinicopathological characteristics of intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma (IHCC). This also translates to treatment as transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is used as first-line therapy for patients with IHCC; however, in Asia liver resection (LR) is preferred. Prognostic tools are required to help guide clinicians in deciding treatment options. This study evaluates the prognostic impact of the Intermediate Stage Score (ISS) on overall survival (OS) in a large, multicenter cohort study of patients with IHCC treated with TACE or surgery LR. Consecutive patients from centers in Japan, Korea, Italy and the United Kingdom who underwent TACE or LR between 2001 and 2015 were enrolled. Propensity score (PS) adjustment was used to remove residual confounding and applied to LR (n = 162) and TACE (n = 449) to determine the prognostic significance of ISS. Among 611 patients, 75 % were men and 25 % women, with a mean age of 70 years. ISS is a valid prognostic tool in the BCLC-B population with a median OS ISS 1-51, 2-38.3, 3-24.3, 4-15.6, 5-16 months (p < 0.0001). ISS was analyzed within each treatment modality, and this was a valid prognostic score among those treated with TACE and LR (p < 0.001 vs. p = 0.008). In the PS-adjusted model, ISS retained its prognostic utility in TACE and LR groups (p < 0.001 vs. p = 0.007). ISS optimizes prognostic prediction in IHCC, reducing clinical heterogeneity, and is a useful tool for patients treated for TACE or LR. PMID:27601241

  16. One-Year Mortality in Older Patients with Cancer: Development and External Validation of an MNA-Based Prognostic Score

    PubMed Central

    Bourdel-Marchasson, Isabelle; Diallo, Abou; Bellera, Carine; Blanc-Bisson, Christelle; Durrieu, Jessica; Germain, Christine; Mathoulin-Pélissier, Simone; Soubeyran, Pierre; Rainfray, Muriel; Fonck, Mariane; Doussau, Adelaïde

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The MNA (Mini Nutritional Assessment) is known as a prognosis factor in older population. We analyzed the prognostic value for one-year mortality of MNA items in older patients with cancer treated with chemotherapy as the basis of a simplified prognostic score. Methods The prospective derivation cohort included 606 patients older than 70 years with an indication of chemotherapy for cancers. The endpoint to predict was one-year mortality. The 18 items of the Full MNA, age, gender, weight loss, cancer origin, TNM, performance status and lymphocyte count were considered to construct the prognostic model. MNA items were analyzed with a backward step-by-step multivariate logistic regression and other items were added in a forward step-by-step regression. External validation was performed on an independent cohort of 229 patients. Results At one year 266 deaths had occurred. Decreased dietary intake (p = 0.0002), decreased protein-rich food intake (p = 0.025), 3 or more prescribed drugs (p = 0.023), calf circumference <31cm (p = 0.0002), tumor origin (p<0.0001), metastatic status (p = 0.0007) and lymphocyte count <1500/mm3 (0.029) were found to be associated with 1-year mortality in the final model and were used to construct a prognostic score. The area under curve (AUC) of the score was 0.793, which was higher than the Full MNA AUC (0.706). The AUC of the score in validation cohort (229 subjects, 137 deaths) was 0.698. Conclusion Key predictors of one-year mortality included cancer cachexia clinical features, comorbidities, the origin and the advanced status of the tumor. The prognostic value of this model combining a subset of MNA items and cancer related items was better than the full MNA, thus providing a simple score to predict 1-year mortality in older patients with an indication of chemotherapy. PMID:26859298

  17. Prognostic Utility of Cell Cycle Progression Score in Men With Prostate Cancer After Primary External Beam Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Freedland, Stephen J.; Gerber, Leah; Reid, Julia; Welbourn, William; Tikishvili, Eliso; Park, Jimmy; Younus, Adib; Gutin, Alexander; Sangale, Zaina; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Salama, Joseph K.; Stone, Steven

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic utility of the cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as their primary curative therapy. Methods and Materials: The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results: Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (P=.0017). The hazard ratio for BCR was 2.55 for 1-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis that included Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the hazard ratio for CCP changed only marginally and remained significant (P=.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (P=.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions: Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicted outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy.

  18. Model of End-Stage Liver Disease Score and Derived Variants Lack Prognostic Ability after Liver Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Kaltenborn, Alexander; Salinas, Ricardo; Jäger, Mark D; Lehner, Frank; Sakirow, Larissa; Klempnauer, Jürgen; Schrem, Harald

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is currently used for donor liver allocation in many regions. The objective of this retrospective study was to assess the MELD score and its diverse variants as prognostic models for mortality after liver transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS An analysis of 454 consecutive adult liver transplants since the introduction of MELD-based donor liver allocation was conducted. Eight different MELD score variants were investigated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and overall model correctness of the investigated scores as a predictive model. The Brier score was used for the prediction of model accuracy and calculated as described before. Study endpoints were 90-day mortality and long-term patient mortality. RESULTS A 90-day mortality of 15.4% (n=69) and long-term mortality of 25% (n=112) were observed. All investigated models fail to reach relevant areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.700 for the prediction of mortality after liver transplantation. All calculated Brier scores were greater than 0.25, indicating a significant lack of model discrimination and calibration of the investigated scores. CONCLUSIONS A prognostic model for the prediction of outcome after transplantation still needs to be identified and should allow weighing urgency against utility in liver transplantation. PMID:26242315

  19. A Novel and Validated Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) Predicts Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Curative Surgical Resection: A STROBE-Compliant Article.

    PubMed

    Fu, Yi-Peng; Ni, Xiao-Chun; Yi, Yong; Cai, Xiao-Yan; He, Hong-Wei; Wang, Jia-Xing; Lu, Zhu-Feng; Han, Xu; Cao, Ya; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Qiu, Shuang-Jian

    2016-02-01

    As chronic inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we investigated the prognostic accuracy of a cluster of inflammatory scores, including the Glasgow Prognostic Score, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, Prognostic Nutritional Index, Prognostic Index, and a novel Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) integrated preoperative and postoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in 2 independent cohorts. Further, we aimed to formulate an effective prognostic nomogram for HCC after hepatectomy.Prognostic value of inflammatory scores and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were studied in a training cohort of 772 patients with HCC underwent hepatectomy. Independent predictors of survival identified in multivariate analysis were validated in an independent set of 349 patients with an overall similar clinical feature.In both training and validation cohorts, IBS, microscopic vascular invasion, and BCLC stage emerged as independent factors of overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The predictive capacity of the IBS in both OS and RFS appeared superior to that of the other inflammatory scores in terms of C-index. Additionally, the formulated nomogram comprised IBS resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction compared with BCLC stage alone.IBS is a novel and validated prognostic indicator of HCC after curative resection, and a robust HCC nomogram including IBS was developed to predict survival for patients after hepatectomy. PMID:26886627

  20. CLIF–SOFA score and SIRS are independent prognostic factors in patients with hepatic encephalopathy due to alcoholic liver cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Jin Hee; Park, In Sung; Kim, Dong Hoon; Kim, Seong Chun; Kang, Changwoo; Lee, Soo Hoon; Kim, Tae Yun; Lee, Sang Bong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a complication associated with worst prognosis in decompensated liver cirrhosis (LC) patients. Previous studies have identified prognostic factors for HE, and recent studies reported an association between systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and liver disease. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day mortality in alcoholic LC patients with HE who visited the emergency department (ED). This was a retrospective study of alcoholic LC patients with HE from January 1, 2010, to April 30, 2015. The baseline characteristics, complications of portal hypertension, laboratory values, Child–Pugh class, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF–SOFA) score, and SIRS criteria were assessed. The presence of 2 or more SIRS criteria was considered SIRS. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and prognostic factors for patients with HE visiting the ED. In total, 105 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed. Overall, the 30-day mortality rate was 6.7% (7 patients). Significant variables were hepatorenal syndrome, international normalized ratio, white blood cell count, total bilirubin level, MELD score CLIF–SOFA score, and SIRS in univariate analysis. CLIF–SOFA score and SIRS were the significant factors in the multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 5.56, 15.98; 95% confidence interval 1.18–26.18, 1.58–161.37; P = 0.03, P = 0.02). The mortality rates differed according to the CLIF–SOFA score (P < 0.01). The CLIF–SOFA score and SIRS in alcoholic LC patients with HE visiting the ED are independent predictors of 30-day mortality. PMID:27367990

  1. A new extranodal scoring system based on the prognostically relevant extranodal sites in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified treated with chemoimmunotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Hee Sang; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Suh, Cheolwon; Huh, Jooryung

    2016-08-01

    Extranodal involvement is a well-known prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL). Nevertheless, the prognostic impact of the extranodal scoring system included in the conventional international prognostic index (IPI) has been questioned in an era where rituximab treatment has become widespread. We investigated the prognostic impacts of individual sites of extranodal involvement in 761 patients with DLBCL who received rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy. Subsequently, we established a new extranodal scoring system based on extranodal sites, showing significant prognostic correlation, and compared this system with conventional scoring systems, such as the IPI and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI (NCCN-IPI). An internal validation procedure, using bootstrapped samples, was also performed for both univariate and multivariate models. Using multivariate analysis with a backward variable selection, we found nine extranodal sites (the liver, lung, spleen, central nervous system, bone marrow, kidney, skin, adrenal glands, and peritoneum) that remained significant for use in the final model. Our newly established extranodal scoring system, based on these sites, was better correlated with patient survival than standard scoring systems, such as the IPI and the NCCN-IPI. Internal validation by bootstrapping demonstrated an improvement in model performance of our modified extranodal scoring system. Our new extranodal scoring system, based on the prognostically relevant sites, may improve the performance of conventional prognostic models of DLBCL in the rituximab era and warrants further external validation using large study populations. PMID:27167532

  2. A Molecular Score by Quantitative PCR as a New Prognostic Tool at Diagnosis for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients

    PubMed Central

    Stamatopoulos, Basile; Meuleman, Nathalie; De Bruyn, Cécile; Pieters, Karlien; Anthoine, Géraldine; Mineur, Philippe; Bron, Dominique; Lagneaux, Laurence

    2010-01-01

    Background Several markers have been proposed to predict the outcome of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. However, discordances exist between the current prognostic factors, indicating that none of these factors are totally perfect. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we compared the prognostic power of new RNA-based markers in order to construct a quantitative PCR (qPCR) score composed of the most powerful factors. ZAP70, LPL, CLLU1, microRNA-29c and microRNA-223 were measured by real time PCR in a cohort of 170 patients with a median follow-up of 64 months (range3-330). For each patient, cells were obtained at diagnosis and RNA was extracted from purified CD19 cells. The best markers were included in a qPCR score, which was thereafter compared to each individual factor. Statistical analysis showed that all five RNA-based markers can predict treatment-free survival (TFS), but only ZAP70, LPL and microRNA-29c could significantly predict overall survival (OS). These three markers were thus included in a simple qPCR score that was able to significantly predict TFS and OS by dividing patients into three groups (0/3, 1-2/3 and 3/3). Median TFS were >210, 61 and 24 months (P<0.0001) and median OS were >330, 242 and 137 months (P<0.0001), respectively. Interestingly, TFS results were also confirmed in Binet stage A patients (P<0.0001). When compared to other classical factors, this score displays the highest univariate Cox hazard ratio (TFS: HR = 9.45 and OS: HR = 13.88) but also provides additional prognostic information. Conclusions In our hands, this score is the most powerful tool for CLL risk stratification at the time of diagnosis. PMID:20862275

  3. The Royal Free Hospital Score: A Calibrated Prognostic Model for Patients With Cirrhosis Admitted to Intensive Care Unit. Comparison With Current Models and CLIF-SOFA Score

    PubMed Central

    Theocharidou, Eleni; Pieri, Giulia; Mohammad, Ali Omar; Cheung, Michelle; Cholongitas, Evangelos; Banwari, Agarwal; Burroughs, Andrew K

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is poor. ICU prognostic models are more accurate than liver-specific models. We identified predictors of mortality, developed a novel prognostic score (Royal Free Hospital (RFH) score), and tested it against established prognostic models and the yet unvalidated Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) model. METHODS: Predictors of mortality were defined by logistic regression in a cohort of 635 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU (1989–2012). The RFH score was derived using a 75% training and 25% validation set. Predictive accuracy and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and goodness-of-fit χ2 for the RFH score, as well as for SOFA, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), and Child-Pugh. CLIF-SOFA was applied to a recent subset (2005–2012) of patients. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 52.3%. Mortality improved over time but with a corresponding reduction in acuity of illness on admission. Predictors of mortality in training set, which constituted the RFH score, were the following: bilirubin, international normalized ratio, lactate, alveolar arterial partial pressure oxygen gradient, urea, while variceal bleeding as indication for admission conferred lesser risk. Classification accuracy was 73.4% in training and 76.7% in validation sample and did not change significantly across different eras of admission. The AUROC for the derived model was 0.83 and the goodness-of-fit χ2 was 3.74 (P=0.88). AUROC for SOFA was 0.81, MELD was 0.79, APACHE II was 0.78, and Child-Pugh was 0.67. In 2005–2012 cohort, AUROC was: SOFA: 0.74, CLIF-SOFA: 0.75, and RFH: 0.78. Goodness-of-fit χ2 was: SOFA: 6.21 (P=0.63), CLIF-SOFA: 9.18 (P=0.33), and RFH: 2.91 (P=0.94). CONCLUSIONS: RFH score demonstrated good discriminative ability and

  4. Prognostic Relevance of the Peritoneal Surface Disease Severity Score Compared to the Peritoneal Cancer Index for Colorectal Peritoneal Carcinomatosis

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Jia Lin; Ong, Whee Sze; Chia, Claramae Shulyn; Tan, Grace Hwei Ching; Soo, Khee-Chee; Teo, Melissa Ching Ching

    2016-01-01

    Background. Peritoneal Carcinomatosis Index (PCI) is a widely established scoring system that describes disease burden in isolated colorectal peritoneal carcinomatosis (CPC). Its significance may be diminished with complete cytoreduction. We explore the utility of the recently described Peritoneal Surface Disease Severity Score (PSDSS) and compare its prognostic value against PCI. Methods. The endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and survival less than 18 months (18 MS). Results. Fifty patients underwent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) for CPC from 2003 to 2014, with 98% achieving complete cytoreduction. Median OS was 28.8 months (95% CI, 18.0–39.1); median PFS was 9.4 months (95% CI, 7.7–13.9). Univariate analysis showed that higher PCI was significantly associated with poorer OS (HR 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03–1.20) and PFS (HR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03–1.14). Conversely, PSDSS was not associated with either endpoint. Multivariate analysis showed that PCI, but not PSDSS, was predictive of OS and PFS. PCI was also able to discriminate survival outcomes better than PSDSS for both OS and PFS. There was no association between 18 MS and either score. Conclusion. PCI is superior to PSDSS in predicting OS and PFS and remains the prognostic score of choice in CPC patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC. PMID:27006828

  5. Prognostic performance of clinical indices and model scorings for acute-on-chronic liver failure: A study of 164 patients

    PubMed Central

    ZHANG, QIANQIAN; GUO, XIAOLIN; ZHAO, SHIXING; PANG, XIAOLI; WANG, YANG; ZHANG, YUJIAO; CHI, BAORONG

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to analyze the prognostic factors of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), with the perspective of an improved selection of optimal therapeutic schemes. A retrospective analysis was used to study 164 patients with ACLF hospitalized between 2010 and 2014 in a single center. Patients were divided into favorable and unfavorable groups, according to the treatment outcomes. General characteristics and clinical manifestations were analyzed to determine whether they would affect the prognosis of the patients with ACLF, with a particular focus on the scoring systems Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD with incorporation of sodium (MELD-Na), MELD and serum sodium ratio (MESO) and integrated MELD (iMELD). Hepatitis B virus infection was the predominant cause of ACLF, accounting for 88 cases (53.7%). Age, prothrombin time, thrombin time, international normalized ratio (INR), prothrombin activity, serum sodium, albumin, total bilirubin, serum creatinine, platelets, fasting blood sugar, infections, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and electrolyte disorder were revealed to be associated with prognosis. Age, serum sodium, INR, HRS, and infection were independent prognostic risk factors, as determined by multivariate analysis. Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, MESO and iMELD scoring systems all demonstrated adequate predictive values, with MELD-Na as the most effective scoring system. In conclusion, age, hyponatremia, INR, HRS and bacterial or fungal infections were reported to be independent prognostic risk factors for ACLF. Among the various liver function scoring systems, MELD-Na was the most accurate in predicting the prognosis of ACLF. PMID:27073448

  6. Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge discovery, statistical learning, and more specifically an understanding of the system evolution in time when it undergoes undesirable fault conditions, are critical for an adequate implementation of successful prognostic systems. Prognosis may be understood as the generation of long-term predictions describing the evolution in time of a particular signal of interest or fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem. Predictions are made using a thorough understanding of the underlying processes and factor in the anticipated future usage.

  7. Prognostic Value of AIMS65 Score in Cirrhotic Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

    PubMed Central

    Gaduputi, Vinaya; Abdulsamad, Molham; Tariq, Hassan; Rafeeq, Ahmed; Abbas, Naeem; Kumbum, Kavitha; Chilimuri, Sridhar

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. Unlike Rockall scoring system, AIMS65 is based only on clinical and laboratory features. In this study we investigated the correlation between the AIMS65 score and Endoscopic Rockall score, in cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients. Methods. This is a retrospective study of patients admitted with overt UGIB and undergoing esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). AIMS65 and Rockall scores were calculated at the time of admission. We investigated the correlation between both scores along with stigmata of bleed seen on endoscopy. Results. A total of 1255 patients were studied. 152 patients were cirrhotic while 1103 patients were noncirrhotic. There was significant correlation between AIMS65 and Total Rockall scores in patients of both groups. There was significant correlation between AIMS65 score and Endoscopic Rockall score in noncirrhotics but not cirrhotics. AIMS65 scores in both cirrhotic and noncirrhotic groups were significantly higher in patients who died from UGIB than in patients who did not. Conclusion. We observed statistically significant correlation between AIMS65 score and length of hospitalization and mortality in noncirrhotic patients. We found that AIMS65 score paralleled the endoscopic grading of lesion causing UGIB in noncirrhotics. AIMS65 score correlated only with mortality but not the length of hospitalization or endoscopic stigmata of bleed in cirrhotics. PMID:25587269

  8. Evolution of the COPD Assessment Test score during chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations: Determinants and prognostic value

    PubMed Central

    Feliz-Rodriguez, Darwin; Zudaire, Santiago; Carpio, Carlos; Martínez, Elizabet; Gómez-Mendieta, Antonia; Santiago, Ana; Alvarez-Sala, Rodolfo; García-Río, Francisco

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: An adequate evaluation of exacerbations is a primary objective in managing patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). OBJECTIVES: To define the profile of health status recovery during severe exacerbations of COPD using the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) questionnaire and to evaluate its prognostic value. METHODS: Forty-five patients with previous COPD diagnoses who were hospitalized due to severe exacerbation(s) were included in the study. These patients were treated by their respective physicians following current recommendations; health status was assessed daily using the CAT questionnaire. The CAT score, spirometry and recurrent hospitalizations were recorded one and three months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage was an independent determinant for increased CAT score during the first days of exacerbation with respect to postexacerbation values. From hospitalization day 5, the CAT score was similar to that obtained in the stable phase. Body mass index, GOLD stage and education level were related to health status recovery pattern. CAT score increase and the area under the curve of CAT recovery were inversely related to the forced expiratory volume in 1 s achieved three months after discharge (r= −0.606; P<0.001 and r= −0.532; P<0.001, respectively). Patients with recurrent hospitalizations showed higher CAT score increases and slower recovery. CONCLUSIONS: The CAT detects early health status improvement during severe COPD exacerbations. Its initial worsening and recovery pattern are related to lung function and recurrent hospitalizations. PMID:24093119

  9. Prognostication of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancer: Predicting the Unpredictable?

    PubMed Central

    Hui, David

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognosis is a key driver of clinical decision-making. However, available prognostication tools have limited accuracy and variable levels of validation. Methods Principles of survival prediction and literature on clinician prediction of survival, prognostic factors, and prognostic models were reviewed, with a focus on patients with advanced cancer and a survival rate of a few months or less. Results The 4 principles of survival prediction are (a) prognostication is a process instead of an event, (b) prognostic factors may evolve over the course of the disease, (c) prognostic accuracy for a given prognostic factor/tool varies by the definition of accuracy, the patient population, and the time frame of prediction, and (d) the exact timing of death cannot be predicted with certainty. Clinician prediction of survival rate is the most commonly used approach to formulate prognosis. However, clinicians often overestimate survival rates with the temporal question. Other clinician prediction of survival approaches, such as surprise and probabilistic questions, have higher rates of accuracy. Established prognostic factors in the advanced cancer setting include decreased performance status, delirium, dysphagia, cancer anorexia–cachexia, dyspnea, inflammation, and malnutrition. Novel prognostic factors, such as phase angle, may improve rates of accuracy. Many prognostic models are available, including the Palliative Prognostic Score, the Palliative Prognostic Index, and the Glasgow Prognostic Score. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in survival prediction, existing prognostic tools can facilitate clinical decision-making by providing approximated time frames (months, weeks, or days). Future research should focus on clarifying and comparing the rates of accuracy for existing prognostic tools, identifying and validating novel prognostic factors, and linking prognostication to decision-making. PMID:26678976

  10. Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, Skye Hongiun . E-mail: skye@mail.kfcc.org.tw; Horng, C.-F.; Clarke, Jennifer L.; Tsou, M.-H.; Tsai, Stella Y.; Chen, C.-M.; Jian, James J.; Liu, M.-C.; West, Mike; Huang, Andrew T.; Prosnitz, Leonard R.

    2006-04-01

    Purpose: To develop clinical prediction models for local regional recurrence (Lr) of breast carcinoma after mastectomy that will be superior to the conventional measures of tumor size and nodal status. Methods and Materials: Clinical information from 1,010 invasive breast cancer patients who had primary modified radical mastectomy formed the database of the training and testing of clinical prognostic and prediction models of LRR. Cox proportional hazards analysis and Bayesian tree analysis were the core methodologies from which these models were built. To generate a prognostic index model, 15 clinical variables were examined for their impact on LRR. Patients were stratified by lymph node involvement (<4 vs. {>=}4) and local regional status (recurrent vs. control) and then, within strata, randomly split into training and test data sets of equal size. To establish prediction tree models, 255 patients were selected by the criteria of having had LRR (53 patients) or no evidence of LRR without postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) (202 patients). Results: With these models, patients can be divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups on the basis of axillary nodal status, estrogen receptor status, lymphovascular invasion, and age at diagnosis. In the low-risk group, there is no influence of PMRT on either LRR or survival. For intermediate-risk patients, PMRT improves LR control but not metastases-free or overall survival. For the high-risk patients, however, PMRT improves both LR control and metastasis-free and overall survival. Conclusion: The prognostic score and predictive index are useful methods to estimate the risk of LRR in breast cancer patients after mastectomy and for estimating the potential benefits of PMRT. These models provide additional information criteria for selection of patients for PMRT, compared with the traditional selection criteria of nodal status and tumor size.

  11. Predictive Significance of a New Prognostic Score for Patients With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma in the Interim-Positron Emission Tomography Findings

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Yu; Qu, Lili; Li, Yuekai; Liu, Dai; Lv, Xuemin; Han, Jiankui

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We hypothesized that the objective treatment response of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) was affected by many factors such as pathophysiological, biological, and pharmaceutical mechanisms. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the predictive significance of clinical prognostic factors and interim fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), and to find a new prognostic predictor significantly associated with DLBCL patients’ outcome. A total of 105 adult patients with DLBCL were reviewed. Each patient underwent an interim 18F-FDG PET/CT scan after the second chemotherapy cycle. The visual method based on the Deauville 5-point scale was used to evaluate the interim-PET/CT scans. The relationships among the prognostic factors, the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) rate and overall survival (OS) rate were analyzed with Kaplan–Meier plots. The predictive value of the newly constructed prognostic score was analyzed with multivariate analysis (Cox proportional hazard regression model). The visual analysis showed statistically significant differences in both PFS and OS between the patients with a negative interim-PET/CT and those with a positive interim-PET/CT. Advanced age, advanced stage, and DLBCL subtype were also significantly associated with outcome. A new prognostic score that composed of the above 4 factors was obtained. New prognostic score stratified patients into 4 risk groups with 3-year PFS of 98.5%, 73.9%, 11.1%, and 0%, and 3-year OS of 100%, 91.3%, 55.6%, and 0% (P < 0.001 for PFS and OS). Multivariate analysis showed that the new prognostic score had the greatest ability to predict relapse (P < 0.001) and death (P < 0.001). In DLBCL patients, interim 18F-FDG PET/CT can provide significant independent prognostic information. Our work illustrates that the new prognostic score has the strongest potential for accurately prognostication, for

  12. Prognostic score models for survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy and chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Zeng, Lei; Guo, Pi; Li, Jin-Gao; Han, Fei; Li, Qiang; Lu, Yong; Deng, Xiao-Wu; Zhang, Qing-Ying; Lu, Tai-Xiang

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To establish accurate prognostic score models to predict survival for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and chemotherapy. Materials and methods Six hundred and seventy-five patients with newly diagnosed, nonmetastatic and histologically proven NPC who were treated with IMRT and chemotherapy were analyzed retrospectively. Samples were split randomly into a training set (n = 338) and a test set (n = 337) to analyze. All data from the training set were used to perform an extensive survival analysis and to develop multivariate nomograms based on Cox regression. Data from the test set was used as an external validation set. Risk group stratification was proposed for the nomograms. Results The nomograms are able to predict survival with a C-index for external validation of local recurrence-free survival (LRFS; 0.66, 95% CI: 0.58-0.74), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS; 0.73, 95% CI: 0.66-0.79), and disease-specific survival (DSS; 0.73, 95% CI: 0.67-0.79). The calibration curve for probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram for LRFS, DMFS and DSS were statistically higher than the C-index values of the AJCC seventh edition (P < 0.001). In the test set, the nomogram discrimination was also superior to the AJCC Staging systems (P < 0.001). The stratification in risk groups allows significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for outcome. Conclusions Prognostic score models were successfully established and validated to predict LRFS, DMFS, and DSS over a 5-year period after IMRT and chemotherapy, which will be useful for individual treatment. PMID:26415223

  13. Pediatric myelodysplasia: a study of 68 children and a new prognostic scoring system.

    PubMed

    Passmore, S J; Hann, I M; Stiller, C A; Ramani, P; Swansbury, G J; Gibbons, B; Reeves, B R; Chessells, J M

    1995-04-01

    Clinical, morphologic, and cytogenetic features were examined in a group of 68 children with myelodysplasia (MDS) referred to a single institution between 1971-1991. The morphologic French-American-British (FAB) system of classification proved of limited value in this group of patients because 50% of the cases were categorized as chronic myelomonocytic leukemia and three patients with eosinophilia and MDS were unclassifiable. Cytogenetic analysis was performed in 63 cases and clonal abnormalities were detected in 55%; the most common chromosome involved was number 7. Modification of the FAB system to incorporate additional diagnostic features such as pretreatment fetal hemoglobin (Hb F) and cytogenetics allowed incorporation of the categories of juvenile chronic myeloid leukemia (JCML) and infantile monosomy 7 syndrome (IMo7). The resulting groups of patients had highly significant differences in survival (P = .00009). The overall 5-year survival for the patients was 31.9% (95% CI 21.7 to 44.1) and factors influencing prognosis included: modified FAB type, platelet count, Hb F level, and cytogenetic complexity. We developed a scoring system ("FPC") where each of the following findings at diagnosis scored one point: HbF greater than 10%, platelets < or = 40 x 10(9)/L, and complex karyotypic changes (two or more clonal structural/numerical abnormalities), which produced groups with highly significant differences, patients with a score of 0 having a 5-year survival of 61.6% (CI 33% to 84%), whereas those with a score of two or three all died within 4 years of diagnosis. The revised classification and scoring system may prove helpful in making treatment choices in pediatric MDS and now needs to be tested prospectively in large scale population-based studies. PMID:7703482

  14. Proposal for a New Prognostic Score for Linac-Based Radiosurgery in Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformations

    SciTech Connect

    Milker-Zabel, Stefanie; Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Wiesbauer, Hannah; Schlegel, Wolfgang; Huber, Peter; Debus, Juergen; Zabel-du Bois, Angelika

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: We evaluate patient-, angioma-, and treatment-specific factors for successful obliteration of cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVM) to develop a new appropriate score to predict patient outcome after linac-based radiosurgery (RS). Methods and Materials: This analysis in based on 293 patients with cerebral AVM. Mean age at treatment was 38.8 years (4-73 years). AVM classification according Spetzler-Martin was 55 patients Grade I (20.5%), 114 Grade II (42.5%), 79 Grade III (29.5%), 19 Grade IV (7.1%), and 1 Grade V (0.4%). Median maximum AVM diameter was 3.0 cm (range, 0.3-10 cm). Median dose prescribed to the 80% isodose was 18 Gy (range, 12-22 Gy). Eighty-five patients (29.1%) had prior partial embolization; 141 patients (51.9%) experienced intracranial hemorrhage before RS. Median follow-up was 4.2 years. Results: Age at treatment, maximum diameter, nidus volume, and applied dose were significant factors for successful obliteration. Under presumption of proportional hazard in the dose range between 12 and 22 Gy/80% isodose, an increase of obliteration rate of approximately 25% per Gy was seen. On the basis of multivariate analysis, a prediction score was calculated including AVM maximum diameter and age at treatment. The prediction error up to the time point 8 years was 0.173 for the Heidelberg score compared with the Kaplan-Meier value of 0.192. An increase of the score of 1 point results in a decrease of obliteration chance by a factor of 0.447. Conclusion: The proposed score is linac-based radiosurgery-specific and easy to handle to predict patient outcome. Further validation on an independent patient cohort is necessary.

  15. Prognostic Utility of Calcium Scoring as an Adjunct to Stress Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy in End-Stage Renal Disease

    PubMed Central

    Moody, William E.; Lin, Erica L.S.; Stoodley, Matthew; McNulty, David; Thomson, Louise E.; Berman, Daniel S.; Edwards, Nicola C.; Holloway, Benjamin; Ferro, Charles J.; Townend, Jonathan N.; Steeds, Richard P.

    2016-01-01

    Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in the general population. Recent data confirm the prognostic utility of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) imaging in end-stage renal disease, but whether performing CACS as part of hybrid imaging improves risk prediction in this population is unclear. Consecutive patients (n = 284) were identified after referral to a university hospital for cardiovascular risk stratification in assessment for renal transplantation. Participants underwent technetium-99m SPECT imaging after exercise or standard adenosine stress in those unable to achieve 85% maximal heart rate; multislice CACS was also performed (Siemens Symbia T16, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany). Subjects with known coronary artery disease (n = 88) and those who underwent early revascularization (n = 2) were excluded. The primary outcome was a composite of death or first myocardial infarction. An abnormal SPECT perfusion result was seen in 22% (43 of 194) of subjects, whereas 45% (87 of 194) had at least moderate CACS (>100 U). The frequency of abnormal perfusion (summed stress score ≥4) increased with increasing CACS severity (p = 0.049). There were a total of 15 events (8 deaths, and 7 myocardial infarctions) after a median duration of 18 months (maximum follow-up 3.4 years). Univariate analysis showed diabetes mellitus (Hazard ratio [HR] 3.30, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.54; p = 0.028), abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 5.32, 95% CI 1.84 to 15.35; p = 0.002), and moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.11 to 11.35; p = 0.032) were all associated with the primary outcome. In a multivariate model, abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 4.18, 95% CI 1.43 to 12.27; p = 0.009), but not moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 2.50, 95% CI 0.76 to 8.20; p = 0.130), independently predicted all-cause death or myocardial infarction. The prognostic value of CACS was not incremental to clinical and SPECT perfusion data (global chi

  16. Prognostic Utility of Calcium Scoring as an Adjunct to Stress Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy in End-Stage Renal Disease.

    PubMed

    Moody, William E; Lin, Erica L S; Stoodley, Matthew; McNulty, David; Thomson, Louise E; Berman, Daniel S; Edwards, Nicola C; Holloway, Benjamin; Ferro, Charles J; Townend, Jonathan N; Steeds, Richard P

    2016-05-01

    Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in the general population. Recent data confirm the prognostic utility of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) imaging in end-stage renal disease, but whether performing CACS as part of hybrid imaging improves risk prediction in this population is unclear. Consecutive patients (n = 284) were identified after referral to a university hospital for cardiovascular risk stratification in assessment for renal transplantation. Participants underwent technetium-99m SPECT imaging after exercise or standard adenosine stress in those unable to achieve 85% maximal heart rate; multislice CACS was also performed (Siemens Symbia T16, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany). Subjects with known coronary artery disease (n = 88) and those who underwent early revascularization (n = 2) were excluded. The primary outcome was a composite of death or first myocardial infarction. An abnormal SPECT perfusion result was seen in 22% (43 of 194) of subjects, whereas 45% (87 of 194) had at least moderate CACS (>100 U). The frequency of abnormal perfusion (summed stress score ≥4) increased with increasing CACS severity (p = 0.049). There were a total of 15 events (8 deaths, and 7 myocardial infarctions) after a median duration of 18 months (maximum follow-up 3.4 years). Univariate analysis showed diabetes mellitus (Hazard ratio [HR] 3.30, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.54; p = 0.028), abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 5.32, 95% CI 1.84 to 15.35; p = 0.002), and moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.11 to 11.35; p = 0.032) were all associated with the primary outcome. In a multivariate model, abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 4.18, 95% CI 1.43 to 12.27; p = 0.009), but not moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 2.50, 95% CI 0.76 to 8.20; p = 0.130), independently predicted all-cause death or myocardial infarction. The prognostic value of CACS was not incremental to clinical and SPECT perfusion data (global chi-square change

  17. Low Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) Predicts Unfavorable Distant Metastasis-Free Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Shaodong; Chen, Haiyang; Liang, Shaobo; Peng, Peijian; Chen, Yong

    2016-01-01

    Background Poor nutritional status is associated with progression and advanced disease in patients with cancer. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) may represent a simple method of assessing host immunonutritional status. This study was designed to investigate the prognostic value of the PNI for distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods A training cohort of 1,168 patients with non-metastatic NPC from two institutions was retrospectively analyzed. The optimal PNI cutoff value for DMFS was identified using the online tool “Cutoff Finder”. DMFS was analyzed using stratified and adjusted analysis. Propensity score-matched analysis was performed to balance baseline characteristics between the high and low PNI groups. Subsequently, the prognostic value of the PNI for DMFS was validated in an external validation cohort of 756 patients with NPC. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was calculated to compare the discriminatory ability of different prognostic scores. Results The optimal PNI cutoff value was determined to be 51. Low PNI was significantly associated with poorer DMFS than high PNI in univariate analysis (P<0.001) as well as multivariate analysis (P<0.001) before propensity score matching. In subgroup analyses, PNI could also stratify different risks of distant metastases. Propensity score-matched analyses confirmed the prognostic value of PNI, excluding other interpretations and selection bias. In the external validation cohort, patients with high PNI also had significantly lower risk of distant metastases than those with low PNI (Hazards Ratios, 0.487; P<0.001). The PNI consistently showed a higher AUC value at 1-year (0.780), 3-year (0.793) and 5-year (0.812) in comparison with other prognostic scores. Conclusion PNI, an inexpensive and easily assessable inflammatory index, could aid clinicians in developing individualized treatment and follow-up strategies for patients

  18. Prognostic factors in patients with intracerebral haematoma.

    PubMed Central

    Franke, C L; van Swieten, J C; Algra, A; van Gijn, J

    1992-01-01

    In a prospective study, the prognostic value of clinical characteristics in 157 consecutive patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral haemorrhage were examined by means of multivariate analysis. Two days after the event 37 (24%) patients had died. Factors independently contributing to the prediction of two day mortality were pineal gland displacement on CT of 3 mm or more (p less than 0.001), blood glucose level on admission of 8.0 mmol/l or more (p = 0.01), eye and motor score on the Glasgow Coma Scale of eight out of 10 or less (p = 0.022) and haematoma volume of 40 cm3 or more (p = 0.037). Between the third day and one year after the event another 46 of the 120 two day survivors had died; the independent prognostic indicators for death during that period were: age 70 years or more (p less than 0.001) and severe handicap (Rankin grade five) on the third day (p less than 0.001). Functional independence (Rankin grade two or less) at one year was most common not only with the converse features of age less than 70 years (p less than 0.01) and Rankin grade four or less on the third day (p = 0.002), but also with an eye and motor score on the Glasgow Coma Scale of nine or 10 on the third day (p less than 0.001). The 120 patients with intracerebral haemorrhage who were still alive two days after the event were matched with 120 patients with cerebral infarction, according to age, level of consciousness on the third day after stroke (Glasgow Coma Scale) and handicap (Rankin grade). Survival and handicap after one year did not differ between these two groups. The conclusion drawn is that it is not the cause (intracerebral haemorrhage or cerebral infarction) but the extent of the brain lesion that determines the outcome in patients who survive the first two days. PMID:1527534

  19. The acute lymphoblastic leukemia prognostic scoring whether it is possible by BCL-2, BAX gene promoter genotyping

    PubMed Central

    Moazami-Goudarzi, Mozhagan; Farshdousti-Hagh, Majid; Hoseinpour-Feizi, Abbasali; Talebi, Mehdi; Movassaghpour-Akbari, Ali Akbar; Shams-Asanjan, Karim; Eyvazi-Ziyaee, Jamal; Seifi, Morteza

    2016-01-01

    Background: BCL-2 is the most important anti-apoptotic regulator and Bax is a pro-apoptotic protein. The status of these parameters or the ration of BCL-2 to BAX is important in malignant cell fate as well as normal cells. Methods: Sixty-two ALL patients and 62 healthy sex-and age-matched controls were studied. After genotyping, the promoter region of the BAX and BCL-2 genes by RFLP-PCR method the patients were classified in nine prognostic groups, after that, the overall survival ratio of each score was compared with others pair-wise or between groups. Results: The frequencies of the AA, AC, CC alleles of the BCL-2 C-938A polymorphism in patient group were 33 (53.23%), 18 (29.03%), 11 (17.74%), and in the control group were 13 (21.0%), 27 (43.5%), 22 (35.5%), respectively (P=0.003). Also, the frequencies of AA, AG, GG alleles of the BAX G-248A SNP were 15 (24.2%), 24 (38.7%), 23 (37.1%) in ALL group and 13 (21.0%), 25 (40.3%), 24 (38.7%) (p>0.05) in the control group. The survival time estimation and ratio were significantly different between different SNPs in BCL-2 (P=0.002). Conclusion: These findings showed that the BCL-2 promoter region polymorphism is more reliable than BAX gene promoter polymorphism in any ALL scoring system. But the establishment of complete scoring system requires further more clinical and laboratory findings along with genetic polymorphisms is necessary.

  20. Prognostic Significance of Neuroendocrine Differentiation in Patients With Gleason Score 8-10 Prostate Cancer Treated With Primary Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Krauss, Daniel J.; Hayek, Sylvia; Amin, Mitual; Ye Hong; Kestin, Larry L.; Zadora, Steven; Vicini, Frank A.; Cotant, Matthew; Brabbins, Donald S.; Ghilezan, Michel I.; Gustafson, Gary S.; Martinez, Alvaro A.

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: To determine the prognostic significance of neuroendocrine differentiation (NED) in Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer treated with primary radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Chromogranin A (CgA) staining was performed and overseen by a single pathologist on core biopsies from 176 patients from the William Beaumont prostate cancer database. A total of 143 had evaluable biopsy material. Staining was quantified as 0%, <1%, 1-10%, or >10% of tumor cells. Patients received external beam RT alone or together with high-dose-rate brachytherapy. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates determined if the presence/frequency of neuroendocrine cells correlated with clinical endpoints. Results: Median follow-up was 5.5 years. Forty patients (28%) had at least focal positive CgA staining (<1% n = 21, 1-10% n = 11, >10% n = 8). No significant differences existed between patients with or without staining in terms of age, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, tumor stage, hormone therapy administration, % biopsy core involvement, mean Gleason score, or RT dose/modality. CgA staining concentration independently predicted for biochemical and clinical failure, distant metastases (DM), and cause-specific survival (CSS). For patients with <1% vs. >1% staining, 10-year DM rates were 13.4% vs. 55.3%, respectively (p = 0.001), and CSS was 91.7% vs. 58.9% (p < 0.001). As a continuous variable, increasing CgA staining concentration predicted for inferior rates of DM, CSS, biochemical control, and any clinical failure. No differences in outcomes were appreciated for patients with 0% vs. <1% NED. Conclusions: For Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer, >1% NED is associated with inferior clinical outcomes for patients treated with radiotherapy. This relates most directly to an increase in distant disease failure.

  1. Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography (CT) Angiography and Coronary Artery Calcium Score Performed Before Revascularization

    PubMed Central

    Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Kondo, Takeshi; Kumamaru, Kanako K; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Takamura, Kazuhisa; Kawaguchi, Yuko; Matsumori, Rie; Hiki, Makoto; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Daida, Hiroyuki; Rybicki, Frank J

    2015-01-01

    Background Cardiac events after revascularization are equally attributable to recurrence at site of culprit lesions and development of nonculprit lesions. We evaluated the hypothesis that coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) performed before revascularization predicts cardiac events after treatment. Methods and Results Among 2238 consecutive patients without known coronary artery disease who underwent coronary CT angiography and CACS, 359 patients underwent revascularization within 30 days after CT; in 337 of 359 (93.9%) follow-up clinical information was available. In addition to known cardiac risk factors, CT findings were evaluated as predictors of cardiac events after revascularization: CACS and the presence of CT-verified high-risk plaque (CT-HRP). Improvement of predictive accuracy by including CT findings was evaluated from a discrimination (Harrell’s C-statistics) standpoint. During the follow-up period (median: 673, interquartile range: 47 to 1529 days), a total of 98 cardiac events occurred. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that age, diabetes, triglyceride, CACS, and nonculprit CT-HRP were significant predictors of overall cardiac events. Although not statistically significant, discriminatory power was greater for the model with CACS (C-stat: 63.2%) and the model with both CACS and CT-HRP (65.8%) compared to the model including neither CACS nor CT-HRP (60.7%). Conclusions High CACS and the presence of nonculprit CT-HRP performed before revascularization are significant predictors of cardiac events after revascularization. PMID:26296858

  2. Predicting Outcome after Traumatic Brain Injury: Development of Prognostic Scores Based on the IMPACT and the APACHE II

    PubMed Central

    Siironen, Jari; Kivisaari, Riku; Hernesniemi, Juha; Skrifvars, Markus B.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Prediction models are important tools for heterogeneity adjustment in clinical trials and for the evaluation of quality of delivered care to patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). We sought to improve the predictive performance of the IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials) prognostic model by combining it with the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) for 6-month outcome prediction in patients with TBI treated in the intensive care unit. A total of 890 patients with TBI admitted to a large urban level 1 trauma center in 2009–2012 comprised the study population. The IMPACT and the APACHE II scores were combined using binary logistic regression. A randomized, split-sample technique with secondary bootstrapping was used for model development and internal validation. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (by area under the curve [AUC]), calibration, precision, and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Overall 6-month mortality was 22% and unfavorable neurological outcome 47%. The predictive power of the new combined IMPACT–APACHE II models was significantly superior, compared to the original IMPACT models (AUC, 0.81–0.82 vs. 0.84–0.85; p<0.05) for 6-month mortality prediction, but not for unfavorable outcome prediction (AUC, 0.81–0.82 vs. 0.83; p>0.05). However, NRI showed a significant improvement in risk stratification of patients with unfavorable outcome by the IMPACT–APACHE II models, compared to the original models (NRI, 5.4–23.2%; p<0.05). Internal validation using split-sample and resample bootstrap techniques yielded equivalent results, indicating low grade of overestimation. Our findings show that by combining the APACHE II with the IMPACT, improved 6-month outcome predictive performance is achieved. This may be applicable for heterogeneity adjustment in forthcoming TBI studies. PMID:24836936

  3. Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio, Lymphocyte/Monocyte Ratio, and Absolute Lymphocyte Count/Absolute Monocyte Count Prognostic Score in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Ching-Liang; Lu, Chieh-Sheng; Chen, Jia-Hong; Chen, Yu-Guang; Huang, Tzu-Chuan; Wu, Yi-Ying

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR), and absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score (ALC/AMC PS) have been described as the most useful prognostic tools for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively analyzed 148 Taiwanese patients with newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma under rituximab (R)-CHOP-like regimens from January 2001 to December 2010 at the Tri-Service General Hospital and investigated the utility of these inexpensive tools in our patients. In a univariate analysis, the NLR, LMR, and ALC/AMC PS had significant prognostic value in our DLBCL patients (NLR: 5-year progression-free survival [PFS], P = 0.001; 5-year overall survival [OS], P = 0.007. LMR: PFS, P = 0.003; OS, P = 0.05. ALC/AMC PS: PFS, P < 0.001; OS, P < 0.001). In a separate multivariate analysis, the ALC/AMC PS appeared to interact less with the other clinical factors but retained statistical significance in the survival analysis (PFS, P = 0.023; OS, P = 0.017). The akaike information criterion (AIC) analysis produced scores of 388.773 in the NLR, 387.625 in the LMR, and 372.574 in the ALC/AMC PS. The results suggested that the ALC/AMC PS appears to be more reliable than the NLR and LMR and may provide additional prognostic information when used in conjunction with the International Prognostic Index.

  4. Validation of the revised International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis) in 585 Mayo Clinic patients.

    PubMed

    Haider, Mahnur; Gangat, Naseema; Lasho, Terra; Abou Hussein, Ahmed K; Elala, Yoseph C; Hanson, Curtis; Tefferi, Ayalew

    2016-06-01

    The primary objective of treatment in essential thrombocythemia (ET) is to prevent thromboembolic complications. In this regard, advanced age and thrombosis history have long distinguished "low" from "high" risk patients. More recently, JAK2V617F and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors were identified as additional modifiers, leading to the development of a 3-tiered International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for ET (IPSET-thrombosis): "low," "intermediate," and "high". The international data set used to develop IPSET-thrombosis was recently re-analyzed in order to quantify the additional pro-thrombotic effect of JAK2V617F and CV risk factors in specific risk subcategories. The revised IPSET-thrombosis identified four risk categories based on three adverse variables (thrombosis history, age >60 years and JAK2V617F): very low (no adverse features), low (presence of JAK2V617F), intermediate (age >60 years) and high (presence of thrombosis history or presence of both advanced age and JAK2V617F). In this study of 585 patients with ET (median age 68 years; 61% female), we validated the revised IPSET-thrombosis by confirming significant differences in thrombosis risk between "very low" and "low" (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.3) and between "intermediate" and "high" (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.2) risk patients. Furthermore, in multivariable analysis, only JAK2V617F (HR=1.8, CI= 1.07 - 2.94) and history of thrombosis (HR=2.1, CI= 1.20 - 3.58) were independently predictive of future thrombotic events. The revised IPSET-thrombosis needs confirmation in prospective studies, especially in terms of risk-adapted therapy that includes the need for aspirin therapy in very low risk, twice-daily aspirin therapy for low risk and cytoreductive therapy for low or intermediate risk patients. PMID:26799697

  5. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    PubMed Central

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-01-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  6. A clinical prognostic scoring system for resectable gastric cancer to predict survival and benefit from paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Jing; Qian, Yingying; Wang, Jian; Gu, Bing; Pei, Dong; He, Shaohua; Zhu, Fang; Røe, Oluf Dimitri; Xu, Jin; Liu, Lianke; Gu, Yanhong; Guo, Renhua; Yin, Yongmei; Shu, Yongqian; Chen, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Background Gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy is a standard procedure of curative resection for gastric cancer (GC). The aim of this study was to develop a simple and reliable prognostic scoring system for GC treated with D2 gastrectomy combined with adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods A prognostic scoring system was established based on clinical and laboratory data from 579 patients with localized GC without distant metastasis treated with D2 gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy. Results From the multivariate model for overall survival (OS), five factors were selected for the scoring system: ≥50% metastatic lymph node rate, positive lymphovascular invasion, pathologic TNM Stage II or III, ≥5 ng/mL preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level, and <110 g/L preoperative hemoglobin. Two models were derived using different methods. Model A identified low- and high-risk patients for OS (P<0.001), while Model B differentiated low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients for OS (P<0.001). Stage III patients in the low-risk group had higher survival probabilities than Stage II patients. Both Model A (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69–0.78) and Model B (AUC: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72–0.83) were better predictors compared with the pathologic TNM classification (AUC: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.59–0.71, P<0.001). Adjuvant paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based or triple chemotherapy showed significantly better outcomes in patients classified as high risk, but not in those with low and intermediate risk. Conclusion A clinical three-tier prognostic risk scoring system was established to predict OS of GC treated with D2 gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy. The potential advantage of this scoring system is that it can identify high-risk patients in Stage II or III who may benefit from paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based regimens. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results before they are applied clinically. PMID:26966350

  7. Coalesced Multicentric Analysis of 2,351 Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes Indicates an Underestimation of Poor-Risk Cytogenetics of Myelodysplastic Syndromes in the International Prognostic Scoring System

    PubMed Central

    Schanz, Julie; Steidl, Christian; Fonatsch, Christa; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Tuechler, Heinz; Valent, Peter; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Giagounidis, Aristoteles; Aul, Carlo; Lübbert, Michael; Stauder, Reinhard; Krieger, Otto; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Kantarjian, Hagop; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Estey, Elihu

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) remains the most commonly used system for risk classification in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs). The IPSS gives more weight to blast count than to cytogenetics. However, previous publications suggested that cytogenetics are underweighted in the IPSS. Here we investigate the prognostic impact of cytogenetic subgroups compared with that of bone marrow blast count in a large, multicentric, international patient cohort. Patients and Methods In total, 2,351 patients with MDS who have records in the German-Austrian and the MD Anderson Cancer Center databases were included and analyzed in univariate and multivariate models regarding overall survival and risk of transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The data were analyzed separately for patients treated with supportive care without specific therapy, with AML-like chemotherapy, or with other therapy regimens (low-dose chemotherapy, demethylating agents, immune modulating agents, valproic acid, and cyclosporine). Results The prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetic findings (as defined by the IPSS classification) on overall survival was as unfavorable as an increased (> 20%) blast count. The hazard ratio (compared with an abnormal karyotype or a bone marrow blast count < 5%) was 3.3 for poor-risk cytogenetics, 4.8 for complex abnormalities harboring chromosomes 5 and/or 7, and 3.1 for a blast count of 21% to 30% (P < .01 for all categories). The predictive power of the IPSS cytogenetic subgroups was unaffected by type of therapy given. Conclusion The independent prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetics on overall survival is equivalent to the impact of high blast counts. This finding should be considered in the upcoming revision of the IPSS. PMID:21519021

  8. Incremental prognostic value of the SYNTAX score to late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance images for patients with stable coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Kato, Shingo; Saito, Naka; Kirigaya, Hidekuni; Gyotoku, Daiki; Iinuma, Naoki; Kusakawa, Yuka; Iguchi, Kohei; Nakachi, Tatsuya; Fukui, Kazuki; Futaki, Masaaki; Iwasawa, Tae; Taguri, Masataka; Kimura, Kazuo; Umemura, Satoshi

    2016-06-01

    The prognostic significance of the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and cardiac surgery) score has recently been demonstrated in patients with stable multivessel or left main coronary artery disease (CAD). The present study determines whether adding the SYNTAX score to Framingham risk score (FRS), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and presence of myocardial infarction (MI) by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) magnetic resonance imaging can improve the risk stratification in patients with stable CAD. We calculated the SYNTAX score in 161 patients with stable CAD (mean age: 66 ± 10 years old). During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 56 (35 %) of 161 patients developed cardiovascular events defined as cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, cerebral infarction, unstable angina pectoris, hospitalization due to heart failure and revascularization. Multivariate Cox regression analysis selected triglycerides [hazard ratio (HR): 1.005 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.001-1.008), p < 0.008], presence of LGE [HR: 6.329 (95 % CI: 2.662-15.05), p < 0.001] and the SYNTAX score [HR: 1.085 (95 % CI: 1.044-1.127), p < 0.001] as risk factors for future cardiovascular events. Adding the SYNTAX score to FRS, EF and LGE significantly improved the net reclassification index (NRI) [40.4 % (95 % CI: 18.1-54.8 %), p < 0.05] with an increase in C-statistics of 0.089 (from 0.707 to 0.796). An increase in C-statistics and significant improvement of NRI showed that adding the SYNTAX score to the FRS, LVEF and LGE incrementally improved risk stratification in patient with stable CAD. PMID:25904244

  9. 78 FR 67024 - Establishment of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... airspace at the Glasgow VOR/DME navigation aid, Glasgow, MT (78 FR 59807, September 30, 2013). The FAA... Federal Register of September 30, 2013 (78 FR 59807), Airspace Docket No. 13- ANM-17, FR Doc. 2013-23669... airspace at the Glasgow VHF Omni-Directional Radio Range/Distance Measuring Equipment (VOR/DME)...

  10. Evidence-based improvement of the National Trauma Triage Protocol: The Glasgow Coma Scale versus Glasgow Coma Scale motor subscale

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Joshua B.; Forsythe, Raquel M.; Stassen, Nicole A.; Peitzman, Andrew B.; Billiar, Timothy R.; Sperry, Jason L.; Gestring, Mark L.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Ideal triage uses simple criteria to identify severely injured patients. Glasgow Coma Scale motor (GCSm) may be easier for field use and was considered for the National Trauma Triage Protocol (NTTP). This study evaluated performance of the NTTP if GCSm is substituted for the current GCS score ≤ 13 criterion. METHODS Subjects in the National Trauma Data Bank undergoing scene transport were included. Presence of NTTP physiologic (Step 1) and anatomic (Step 2) criteria was determined. GCSm score ≤ 5 was defined as a positive criterion. Trauma center need (TCN) was defined as Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 15, intensive care unit admission, urgent operation, or emergency department death. Test characteristics were calculated to predict TCN. Area under the curve was compared between GCSm and GCS scores, individually and within the NTTP. Logistic regression was used to determine the association of GCSm score ≤ 5 and GCS score ≤ 13 with TCN after adjusting for other triage criteria. Predicted versus actual TCN was compared. RESULTS There were 811,143 subjects. Sensitivity was lower (26.7% vs. 30.3%), specificity was higher (95.1% vs. 93.1%), and accuracy was similar (66.1% vs. 66.3%) for GCSm score ≤ 5 compared with GCS score ≤ 13. Incorporated into the NTTP Steps 1 + 2, GCSm score ≤ 5 traded sensitivity (60.4% vs. 62.1%) for specificity (67.1% vs. 65.7%) with similar accuracy (64.2% vs. 64.2%) to GCS score ≤ 13. There was no difference in the area under the curve between GCSm score ≤ 5 and GCS score ≤ 13 when incorporated into the NTTP Steps 1 + 2 (p = 0.10). GCSm score ≤ 5 had a stronger association with TCN (odds ratio, 3.37; 95% confidence interval, 3.27–3.48; p < 0.01) than GCS score ≤ 13 (odds ratio, 3.03; 95% confidence interval, 2.94–3.13; p < 0.01). GCSm had a better fit of predicted versus actual TCN than GCS at the lower end of the scales. CONCLUSION GCSm score ≤ 5 increases specificity at the expense of sensitivity

  11. Usefulness of Cardiac MetaIodobenzylguanidine Imaging to Improve Prognostic Power of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Scoring System in Patients With Mild-to-Moderate Chronic Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Hakui, Hideyuki; Yamada, Takahisa; Tamaki, Shunsuke; Morita, Takashi; Furukawa, Yoshio; Iwasaki, Yusuke; Kawasaki, Masato; Kikuchi, Atsushi; Kondo, Takumi; Ishimi, Masashi; Sato, Yoshihiro; Seo, Masahiro; Ozaki, Tatsuhisa; Ikeda, Iyo; Fukuhara, Eiji; Sakata, Yasushi; Fukunami, Masatake

    2016-06-15

    Liver dysfunction has a prognostic impact on the outcomes of patients with advanced heart failure (HF). The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a robust system for rating liver dysfunction, and a high score has been shown to be associated with a poor prognosis in ambulatory patients with HF. In addition, cardiac metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging provides prognostic information in patients with chronic HF (CHF). However, the long-term predictive value of combining the MELD score and cardiac MIBG imaging in patients with CHF has not been elucidated. To prospectively investigate whether cardiac MIBG imaging provides additional prognostic value to the MELD score in patients with mild-to-moderate CHF, we studied 109 CHF outpatients (New York Heart Association: 2.0 ± 0.6) with left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. At enrollment, an MELD score was obtained, and the heart-to-mediastinal ratio on delayed imaging and MIBG washout rate (WR) were measured using cardiac MIBG scintigraphy. During a follow-up period of 7.5 ± 4.2 years, 36 of 109 patients experienced cardiac death (CD). On multivariate Cox analysis, MELD score and WR were significantly independently associated with CD, although heart-to-mediastinal ratio showed an association with CD only on univariate Cox analysis. Patients with abnormal WR (>27%) had a significantly greater risk of CD than those with normal WR in both those with high MELD scores (≥10; hazard ratio 4.0 [1.2 to 13.6]) and with low MELD scores (<10; hazard ratio 6.4 [1.7 to 23.2]). In conclusion, cardiac MIBG imaging would provide additional prognostic information to the MELD score in patients with mild-to-moderate CHF. PMID:27237625

  12. Prognostic value of ICU-acquired hypernatremia in patients with neurological dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Bei; Han, Qianpeng; Mengke, Nashun; He, Kairan; Zhang, Yiqin; Nie, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Hongke

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Many studies have indicated that hypernatremia is associated with increased mortality. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired hypernatremia and the prognosis of critically neurological patients. Based on serum sodium level in the ICU, 450 patients were divided into 3 groups: 222 had normal serum sodium, 142 had mild hypernatremia, and 86 had severe hypernatremia. Kaplan–Meier and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of hypernatremia in critically neurological patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed for serum sodium levels to determine their roles in predicting ICU mortality. Hypernatremia was significantly related with age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, serum sodium, APACHE II score, and serum creatinine. Moreover, the different treatment outcome including mechanical ventilation, the days of stayed in ICU, and Glasgow Outcome Scale score had correlation with serum sodium levels. Old ages, GCS score, therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) score, APACHE II score, serum sodium peak, and so on were all associated with the mortality. In addition, hypernatremia was an independent prognostic factor for critically neurological patients by logistic regression analysis (odds ratio = 1.192, 95% confidence interval = 1.135–1.252, P = 0.000). Moreover, we got the sensitivity of 79.4% and specificity of 74.5% in the ROC analysis between peak serum sodium and the mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.844, and the optimal cutoff value was 147.55. Our results showed that ICU-acquired hypernatremia may be a potential prognosis marker for critically neurological patients. PMID:27583842

  13. The EndoPredict score provides prognostic information on late distant metastases in ER+/HER2− breast cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Dubsky, P; Brase, J C; Jakesz, R; Rudas, M; Singer, C F; Greil, R; Dietze, O; Luisser, I; Klug, E; Sedivy, R; Bachner, M; Mayr, D; Schmidt, M; Gehrmann, M C; Petry, C; Weber, K E; Fisch, K; Kronenwett, R; Gnant, M; Filipits, M

    2013-01-01

    Background: ER+/HER2− breast cancers have a proclivity for late recurrence. A personalised estimate of relapse risk after 5 years of endocrine treatment can improve patient selection for extended hormonal therapy. Methods: A total of 1702 postmenopausal ER+/HER2− breast cancer patients from two adjuvant phase III trials (ABCSG6, ABCSG8) treated with 5 years of endocrine therapy participated in this study. The multigene test EndoPredict (EP) and the EPclin score (which combines EP with tumour size and nodal status) were predefined in independent training cohorts. All patients were retrospectively assigned to risk categories based on gene expression and on clinical parameters. The primary end point was distant metastasis (DM). Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used in an early (0–5 years) and late time interval (>5 years post diagnosis). Results: EP is a significant, independent, prognostic parameter in the early and late time interval. The expression levels of proliferative and ER signalling genes contribute differentially to the underlying biology of early and late DM. The EPclin stratified 64% of patients at risk after 5 years into a low-risk subgroup with an absolute 1.8% of late DM at 10 years of follow-up. Conclusion: The EP test provides additional prognostic information for the identification of early and late DM beyond what can be achieved by combining the commonly used clinical parameters. The EPclin reliably identified a subgroup of patients who have an excellent long-term prognosis after 5 years of endocrine therapy. The side effects of extended therapy should be weighed against this projected outcome. PMID:24157828

  14. Prognostic Value of Elevated Homocysteine Levels in Korean Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kwon, Sung Woo; Kim, Jong-Youn; Suh, Young Ju; Lee, Dae Hyung; Yoon, Young Won; Lee, Byoung Kwon; Jung, Young-Hak; Choi, Eui-Young; Hong, Bum-Kee; Rim, Se-Joong

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives We sought to determine whether an elevated homocysteine (Hcy) level is associated with a worse prognosis in Korean patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Subjects and Methods A total of 5839 patients (60.4% male, mean age 61.3±11.2 years) with CAD were enrolled from 2000 to 2010 at Gangnam Severance Hospital. CAD was diagnosed by invasive coronary angiography. Laboratory values including Hcy level were obtained on the day of coronary angiography and analyses were performed shortly after sampling. Patients were divided into two groups according to their Hcy levels. Baseline risk factors, coronary angiographic findings, length of follow-up, and composite endpoints including cardiac death (CD) and non-fatal myocardial infarction (NFMI) were recorded. 1:1 propensity score matched analysis was also performed. Results Over a mean follow-up period of 4.4±2.5 years, there were 132 composite endpoints (75 CD and 57 NFMI) with an event rate of 2.3%. Mean Hcy level was 9.9±4.3 µmol/L (normal Hcy 7.9±1.5 µmol/L and elevated Hcy 13.9±5.1 µmol/L). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed an association of elevated Hcy level with worse prognosis (p<0.0001). In addition, a multivariate Cox regression analysis showed an association of elevated Hcy level with worse prognosis for both the entire cohort (hazard ratio [HR] 2.077, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.467-2.941, p<0.0001) and the propensity score matched cohort (HR 1.982, 95% CI 1.305-3.009, p=0.001). Conclusion Elevated Hcy level is associated with worse outcomes in Korean patients with CAD. PMID:27014345

  15. The Association of Surgeons in Training Conference: #ASiT2015 Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Gokani, V J; Beamish, A J; Sinclair, P; Robson, A; Harries, R L

    2015-11-01

    The Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) is a professional body and registered charity working to promote excellence in surgical training for the benefit of junior doctors and patients alike. ASiT is in-dependent of the National Health Service (NHS), Surgical Royal Colleges, and specialty associations and represents trainees in all ten surgical specialties. ASiT was delighted to welcome a number of distinguished guests and speakers to Glasgow for #ASiT2015. The theme of 'The Future of Surgery' delved into challenges surgical training faces, exciting developments into using technology to help patients, a glance at the past with the development of the Glasgow Coma Score and whether mortality truly is the future of measured outcomes. More than £3500 of prizes was awarded by the incoming President, Miss. Rhiannon Harries to the highest scoring papers presented selected from over 1000 abstracts submitted. PMID:26525269

  16. Prognostic Value of Major Cardiac Event Risk Score Estimated With Gated Myocardial Perfusion Imaging in Japanese Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Yoda, Shunichi; Nakanishi, Kanae; Tano, Ayako; Hori, Yusuke; Hayase, Misa; Mineki, Takashi; Suzuki, Yasuyuki; Matsumoto, Naoya; Hirayama, Atsushi

    2016-07-27

    We published a cardiac event risk score (CERS) predicting the risk of major cardiac events (MCEs) within 3 years. The purpose of this study was to verify the prognostic value of the CERS before and after treatment in Japanese patients with coronary artery disease.We retrospectively investigated 612 patients who underwent rest (201)Tl and stress (99m)Tc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) between October 2004 and March 2013 and who had a significant stenosis with ≥ 75% narrowing of the arterial diameter detected by coronary angiography performed after confirmation of ≥ 5% ischemia with the SPECT. The patients underwent treatment including revascularization and medication, and thereafter, were re-evaluated with SPECT during a chronic phase and followed-up to confirm prognosis for ≥ 1 year. The endpoint was the onset of MCEs during the follow-up.During the follow-up (36.7 ± 14.5 months), 50 patients (8.7%) experienced MCEs comprising cardiac death (n = 16), non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 4), and unstable angina pectoris (n = 30). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis for the actual occurrence of MCEs showed the summed difference score % and MCE risks estimated with the CERS after treatment to be significant independent variables. Ischemic reduction after treatment contributed significantly to a decrease in the MCE risks. The MCE risks estimated with the CERS after treatment were generally consistent with the incidence of the MCEs actually observed.The CERS after treatment is a valuable formula for predicting prognosis in Japanese patients with coronary artery disease. PMID:27357436

  17. Prognostic relevance of pretransplant Deauville score on PET-CT and presence of EBV DNA in patients who underwent autologous stem cell transplantation for ENKTL.

    PubMed

    Lim, S H; Hyun, S H; Kim, H S; Lee, J Y; Yoo, K H; Jung, K S; Song, H-N; Cho, J; Park, S; Ko, Y H; Kim, S J; Choi, J Y; Kim, W S

    2016-06-01

    High-dose chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) for extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL) is a reasonable option for a subset of patients. The impact of response status, according to positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) results and/or presence of circulating EBV DNA prior to ASCT, has not yet been established. We analyzed 27 ENKTL patients with pre-ASCT circulating EBV DNA who had undergone pre-ASCT PET/CT between 2009 and 2014. We classified patients into two groups based on the result of pretransplantation assessment: a favorable risk group (pretransplant five-point Deauville score (DS) of 1-2 based on PET/CT and no detectable EBV DNA) and an unfavorable risk group (DS 1-2 with detectable EBV DNA, DS 3-5 with or without detectable EBV DNA). After a median follow-up of 37 months, overall survival and PFS were significantly different between the two groups (median OS: not reached for favorable risk group vs 7.0 months for unfavorable risk group, P=0.017; median PFS: 16.0 vs 5.0 months, P=0.019). Multivariate analysis revealed that pre-ASCT DS and EBV DNA was the only independent prognostic factor considering stage, IPI and NKPI. Precise assessment of the status of disease before transplantation may provide more benefit from ASCT to ENKTL patients. PMID:26855154

  18. Comparison of risk of local-regional recurrence after mastectomy or breast conservation therapy for patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiation stratified according to a prognostic index score

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Eugene H.; Strom, Eric A.; Perkins, George H.; Oh, Julia L.; Chen, Allen M.; Meric-Bernstam, Funda; Hunt, Kelly K.; Sahin, Aysegul A.; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N.; Buchholz, Thomas A. . E-mail: tbuchhol@mdanderson.org

    2006-10-01

    Purpose: We previously developed a prognostic index that stratified patients treated with breast conservation therapy (BCT) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy into groups with different risks for local-regional recurrence (LRR). The purpose of this study was to compare the rates of LRR as a function of prognostic index score for patients treated with BCT or mastectomy plus radiation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 815 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation. Patients were assigned an index score from 0 to 4 and given 1 point for the presence of each factor: clinical N2 to N3 disease, lymphovascular invasion, pathologic size >2 cm, and multifocal residual disease. Results: The 10-year LRR rates were very low and similar between the mastectomy and BCT groups for patients with an index score of 0 or 1. For patients with a score of 2, LRR trended lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (12% vs. 28%, p = 0.28). For patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was significantly lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (19% vs. 61%, p = 0.009). Conclusions: This analysis suggests that BCT can provide excellent local-regional treatment for the vast majority of patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. For the few patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was >60% after BCT and was <20% with mastectomy. If these findings are confirmed in larger randomized studies, the prognostic index may be useful in helping to select the type of surgical treatment for patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation.

  19. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R. Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Results: Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56–2.45, P < 0.01). Conclusions: A clinically useful classification tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH. PMID:27512607

  20. Road to refractory epilepsy: the Glasgow story.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Martin J

    2013-05-01

    This short article reviews 30 years of prospective observations on outcomes relevant to an expanding cohort of adolescent and adult patients with newly diagnosed epilepsy, who received their first antiepileptic drug (AED) and subsequent long-term follow-up at the Epilepsy Unit at the Western Infirmary in Glasgow, United Kingdom. Despite the fact that the overall prognosis has slowly improved over this time, >30% of the patients remain uncontrolled despite the introduction of a range of new AEDs, some with unique mechanisms of action, over the last 20 years. Most patients followed a constant course (59% controlled, 25% refractory), which could usually be predicted early. The remaining 16% fluctuated between periods of remission and relapse. The likelihood of seizure freedom declined with successive drug regimens, most markedly from the first to the third. A number of factors predicting poorer outcomes have been identified, particularly high pretreatment seizure density and concomitant psychiatric comorbidities. Novel approaches to identifying and treating the processes underpinning the generation and propagation of seizures are required if the current rather disappointing scenario is to be substantially improved. PMID:23646962

  1. Prognostic evaluation by clinical exercise test scores in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention or fibrinolysis for acute myocardial infarction (a Danish Trial in Acute Myocardial Infarction-2 Sub-Study).

    PubMed

    Valeur, Nana; Clemmensen, Peter; Grande, Peer; Saunamäki, Kari

    2007-10-01

    The prognostic accuracy of exercise testing after myocardial infarction is low, and different models have been proposed to enhance the predictive value for subsequent mortality. This study tested a simple score against 3 established scores. Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarctions were randomized in the Danish Trial in Acute Myocardial Infarction-2 (DANAMI-2) to either primary percutaneous coronary intervention or fibrinolysis with predischarge exercise testing. Clinical and exercise test data were collected prospectively and were available for 1,115 patients. A simple score was derived, awarding 1 point for history or new signs of heart failure, 1 point for a left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, 1 point for age >65 years in men and age >70 years in women, and 1 point for exercise capacity <5 METs in men and exercise capacity <4 METs in women. This DANAMI score was compared with the Veterans Affairs Medical Center score, the Duke treadmill score, and the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio Della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico-2 (GISSI-2) score in multivariate Cox models and receiver-operating characteristic plots. All scoring systems were predictive of adverse outcomes. The DANAMI score performed better, with greater chi-square values (142 vs 53 to 88 for the prediction of death). Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves were compared and were larger for the DANAMI score (C-statistic 0.79 vs 0.71 to 0.74 for the other tests regarding mortality). The DANAMI score stratified patients into a small high-risk group (8% of the population with 43% mortality in 6 years), an intermediate-risk group (13% with 16% mortality in 6 years), and a low-risk group (79% with 4% mortality in 6 years). In conclusion, a simple exercise test score composed of age, METs, heart failure, and a left ventricular ejection fraction <40% seems to outperform the Duke treadmill score, Veterans Affairs Medical Center score, and GISSI-2 score in risk stratifying

  2. Validation of the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) in patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes: a report from the prospective European LeukaemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) registry.

    PubMed

    de Swart, Louise; Smith, Alex; Johnston, Thomas W; Haase, Detlef; Droste, Jackie; Fenaux, Pierre; Symeonidis, Argiris; Sanz, Guillermo; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Cermák, Jaroslav; Germing, Ulrich; Stauder, Reinhard; Georgescu, Otilia; MacKenzie, Marius; Malcovati, Luca; Holm, Mette S; Almeida, Antonio M; Mądry, Krzysztof; Slama, Borhane; Guerci-Bresler, Agnes; Sanhes, Laurence; Beyne-Rauzy, Odile; Luño, Elisa; Bowen, David; de Witte, Theo

    2015-08-01

    Baseline characteristics, disease-management and outcome of 1000 lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients within the European LeukaemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) Registry are described in conjunction with the validation of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). The EUMDS registry confirmed established prognostic factors, such as age, gender and World Health Organization 2001 classification. Low quality of life (EQ-5D visual analogue scale score) was significantly associated with reduced survival. A high co-morbidity index predicted poor outcome in univariate analyses. The IPSS-R identified a large group of 247 patients with Low (43%) and Very low (23%) risk score within the IPSS intermediate-1 patients. The IPSS-R also identified 32 High or Very high risk patients within the IPSS intermediate-1 patients. IPSS-R was superior to the IPSS for predicting both disease progression and survival. Seventy percent of patients received MDS-specific treatment or supportive care, including red blood cell transfusions (51%), haematopoietic growth factors (58%) and iron chelation therapy (8%), within 2 years of diagnosis; while 30% of the patients only required active monitoring. The IPSS-R proved its utility as a more refined risk stratification tool for the identification of patients with a very good or poor prognosis and in this lower-risk MDS population. PMID:25907546

  3. Additive prognostic value of coronary artery calcium score and renal function in patients with acute chest pain without known coronary artery disease: up to 5-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Chaikriangkrai, Kongkiat; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J; Chang, Su Min

    2015-12-01

    Long-term incremental prognostic value of renal function over coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in symptomatic patients without known coronary artery disease (CAD) is unclear. The objective of this study was to examine additive prognostic value of renal function over CACS in patients with acute chest pain suspected of CAD. Renal function and CACS were assessed in patients without known CAD who presented to the emergency department with chest pain from 2005 to 2008. Renal function was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A total of 949 patients (804 non-CKD and 145 CKD, age 54 ± 13 years) were included. During the follow-up period of up to 5.3 years, major adverse cardiac events (MACE) occurred in 5.7% of patients (19 cardiac deaths, 6 myocardial infarction and 29 late coronary revascularization). Annualized MACE rate was higher in patients in higher CACS categories with and without CKD (p = 0.011 and p < 0.001 respectively). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, CACS categories (CACS 1-100: HR 3.17, p = 0.005; CACS 101-400: HR 7.68, p < 0.001; CACS > 400: HR 8.88, p < 0.001) and CKD (HR 10.18, p < 0.001) were independent predictors for MACE. Both adding renal function and CACS significantly improved the overall predictive performance (p < 0.001 for global Chi square increase) from Framingham risk categories or thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score. Both CACS and renal function were independent predictors for future cardiac events and provided additive prognostic value to each other and over either Framingham risk categories or TIMI risk score. PMID:26243534

  4. A novel prognostic score model incorporating CDGSH iron sulfur domain2 (CISD2) predicts risk of disease progression in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    He, Zhenyu; Liang, Shaobo; Chen, Haiyang; He, Shasha; Wu, Shu; Song, Libing; Chen, Yong

    2016-01-01

    Background The role of CDGSH iron sulfur domain 2 (CISD2) in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) remains unclear. Results CISD2 were up-regulated in LSCC tissues compared with adjacent noncancerous tissues both at mRNA and protein levels. CISD2 was significantly correlated with T stage, lymph node metastasis, clinical stage and disease progression. A prognostic model (C-N model) for PFS was subsequently constructed based on independent prognostic factors including CISD2 and N classification. This model significantly divided LSCC patients into three risk subgroups and was more accurate than the prediction efficacy of TNM classification in the training cohort (C-index, 0.710 vs 0.602, P = 0.027) and validation cohort (C-index, 0.719 vs 0.578, P = 0.014). Methods Real-time PCR and Western blotting were employed to examine the expression of CISD2 in eight fresh paired LSCC samples. Immunohistochemistry was performed to assess CISD2 expression in 490 paraffin-embedded archived LSCC samples. A prognostic model for progression-free survival (PFS) was built using independent factors. The concordance index (C-Index) was used to evaluate the prognostic ability of the model. Conclusions CISD2 was up-regulated in LSCC. The novel C-N model, which includes CISD2 levels and N classification, is more accurate than conventional TNM classification for predicting PFS in LSCC. PMID:27007153

  5. Representing the Glasgow Coma Scale in IT: Proper Specification is Required for Assessment Scales.

    PubMed

    Goossen, William; Oemig, Frank

    2014-01-01

    In healthcare a huge amount of assessment scales and score systems are in use to abbreviate and summarize the results of clinical observations to interpret a patient's condition in a valid and reliable manner. It is challenging to convey the information in a semantic interoperable form to other systems. A bad approach would be to invent individual models for each of them. Within this paper we would like to demonstrate that a generic model is sufficient by demonstrating the realization with the Glasgow Coma Scale. PMID:24851961

  6. Female streetworking prostitution and HIV infection in Glasgow.

    PubMed Central

    McKeganey, N.; Barnard, M.; Leyland, A.; Coote, I.; Follet, E.

    1992-01-01

    OBJECTIVES--To identify the extent of HIV infection and injecting drug use among female streetworking prostitutes in Glasgow; to estimate the size of the female streetworking prostitute population in the city; and to estimate the number of HIV positive women working as prostitutes on the streets in Glasgow. DESIGN--Observation and interviewing of female prostitutes over seven months in red light district; analysis of saliva samples for presence of antibodies to HIV; capture-recapture approach to estimating the size of the female streetworking prostitute population. SETTING--Glasgow. SUBJECTS--206 female streetworking prostitutes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Number of women with antibodies to HIV, self reported use of injecting drugs, history of contact with 206 women. RESULTS--Saliva samples were requested from 197 women; 159 (81%) provided samples. Four (2.5%, 95% confidence interval 0.7%-6.3%) of the samples were positive for HIV, all of which had been provided by women who injected drugs. Of the 206 streetworking women contacted 147 (71%) were injecting drug users. About 1150 women are estimated to work on the streets in Glasgow over a 12 month period. CONCLUSIONS--HIV is not as widespread among female prostitutes as many reports in the tabloid press suggest. A greater proportion of female streetworking prostitutes in Glasgow are injecting drugs than has been reported for other British cities. PMID:1422360

  7. Prognostic significance of the combined score of endothelial expression of nucleolin and CD31 in surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Hongyun; Huang, Yan; Xue, Cong; Chen, Yang; Hou, Xue; Guo, Ying; Zhao, Liping; Hu, Zhi huang; Huang, Yujie; Luo, Yongzhang; Zhang, Li

    2013-01-01

    Nucleolin is implicated to play a role in angiogenesis, a vital process in tumor growth and metastasis. However, the presence and clinical relevance of nucleolin in human non small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains largely unknown. In this study, we explored the expression and prognostic implication of nucleolin in surgically resected NSCLC patients. A cohort of 146 NSCLC patients who underwent surgical resection was selected for tissue microarray. In this tissue microarray, nucleolin expression was measured by immunofluorescence. Staining for CD31, a marker of endothelial cells, was performed to mark blood vessels. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the prognostic significance of nucleolin. Nucleolin expression was observed in 34.2% of all patients, and 64.1% in high CD31 expression patients. The disease-free survival (DFS) was significantly shorter in patients with high nucleolin (CD31(hi)NCL(hi)) compared to patients with low tumor blood vessels (CD31(lo)NCL(lo)) (5 ys of DFS 24% vs 64%, p = 0.002). Such a difference was demonstrated in the following stratified analyses: stage I (p<0.001), squamous cell carcinoma and adenosquamous cell carcinoma (p = 0.028), small tumor (<5 cm, p = 0.008), and surgery alone (p = 0.015). Multivariate analysis further revealed that nucleolin expression independently predicted for worse survival (p = 0.003). This study demonstrates that nucleolin is associated with the clinical outcomes in postoperative NSCLC patients. Thus, the expression levels of nucleolin may provide a new prognostic marker to identify patients at higher risk for treatment failure, especially in some subgroups. PMID:23382938

  8. The Physical Tourist Physics in Glasgow: A Heritage Tour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, Sean F.

    2006-12-01

    I trace the history of the physical and applied sciences, and particularly physics, in Glasgow. Among the notable individuals I discuss are Joseph Black (1728 1799), James Watt (1736 1819), William John Macquorn Rankine (1820 1872), William Thomson, Lord Kelvin (1824 1907), John Kerr (1824 1907), Frederick Soddy (1877 1956), John Logie Baird (1888 1946), and Ian Donald (1910 1987), as well as physics-related businesses.The locations, centering on the city center and University of Glasgow, include sites both recognizable today and transformed from past usage, as well as museums and archives related to the history and interpretation of physics.

  9. The mediation of coronary calcification in the association between risk scores and cardiac troponin T elevation in healthy adults: Is atherosclerosis a good prognostic precursor of coronary disease?

    PubMed Central

    Lazzarino, Antonio Ivan; Hamer, Mark; Carvalho, Livia; Gaze, David; Collinson, Paul; Steptoe, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional cardiac risk scores may not be completely accurate in predicting acute events because they only include factors associated with atherosclerosis, considered as the fundamental precursor of cardiovascular disease. In UK in 2006–2008 (Whitehall II study) we tested the ability of several risk scores to identify individuals with cardiac cell damage and assessed to what extent their estimates were mediated by the presence of atherosclerosis. Methods 430 disease-free, low-risk participants were tested for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (HS-CTnT) and for coronary calcification using electron-beam, dual-source, computed tomography (CAC). We analysed the data cross-sectionally using ROC curves and mediation tests. Results When the risk scores were ranked according to the magnitude of ROC areas for HS-CTnT prediction, a score based only on age and gender came first (ROC area = 0.79), followed by Q-Risk2 (0.76), Framingham (0.70), Joint-British-Societies (0.69) and Assign (0.68). However, when the scores were ranked according to the extent of mediation by CAC (proportion of association mediated), their order was essentially reversed (age&gender = 6.8%, Q-Risk2 = 9.7%, Framingham = 16.9%, JBS = 17.8%, Assign = 17.7%). Therefore, the more accurate a score is in predicting detectable HS-CTnT, the less it is mediated by CAC; i.e. the more able a score is in capturing atherosclerosis the less it is able to predict cardiac damage. The P for trend was 0.009. Conclusions The dynamics through which cardiac cell damage is caused cannot be explained by ‘classic’ heart disease risk factors alone. Further research is needed to identify precursors of heart disease other than atherosclerosis. PMID:26051205

  10. The food retail environment and area deprivation in Glasgow City, UK

    PubMed Central

    Macdonald, Laura; Ellaway, Anne; Macintyre, Sally

    2009-01-01

    It has previously been suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within modern cities have poor access to general amenities, for example, fewer food retail outlets. Here we examine the distribution of food retailers by deprivation in the City of Glasgow, UK. We obtained a list of 934 food retailers in Glasgow, UK, in 2007, and mapped these at address level. We categorised small areas (data zones) into quintiles of area deprivation using the 2006 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Income sub-domain score. We computed mean number of retailers per 1000 residents per data zone, and mean network distance to nearest outlet from data zone centroid, for all retailers combined and for each of seven categories of retailer separately (i.e. bakers, butchers, fruit and vegetable sellers, fishmongers, convenience stores, supermarkets and delicatessens). The most deprived quintile (of areas) had the greatest mean number of total food retailers per 1000 residents while quintile 1 (least deprived) had the least, and this difference was statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). The closest mean distance to the nearest food retailer was within quintile 3 while the furthest distance was within quintile 1, and this was also statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). There was variation in the distribution of the seven different types of food retailers, and access to amenities depended upon the type of food retailer studied and whether proximity or density was measured. Overall the findings suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within the City of Glasgow did not necessarily have fewer food retail outlets. PMID:19660114

  11. Territorialities in Scotland: Perceptions of Young People in Glasgow

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holligan, Christopher Peter; Deuchar, Ross

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an exploratory, small-scale qualitative research enquiry into the perceptions and experiences of young people in communities afflicted by deprivation in Glasgow, Scotland's largest city. The context within which we address this focus contains a culture reputed to involve sectarianism, territoriality and gangs.…

  12. Pure Dead Brilliant?: Evaluating the Glasgow Story Digitisation Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present an evaluation of The Glasgow Story (TGS) digitisation project, funded by the UK's National Lottery's New Opportunities Fund digitisation (NOF-Digi) programme, and a critique of the evaluation process itself. The paper emphasises the need for user impact evaluation and for results to be brought into…

  13. Emotional and Behavioural Development in Glasgow Primary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pritchett, Rachel; Nowek, Gail; Neill, Cróna; Minnis, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Studies examining the well-being of British children find that about 5-10% are at risk of developing problems. This study aimed to examine the emotional and behavioural development of six to eight year olds in an area of socio-economic deprivation in Glasgow (Scotland) and compare this with UK norms. Furthermore, it aimed to look at overlap…

  14. 78 FR 59807 - Establishment of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-30

    ... proposed rulemaking (NPRM) to establish controlled airspace at Glasgow, MT (78 FR 41337). Interested...'' under DOT Regulatory Policies and Procedures (44 FR 11034; February 26, 1979); and (3) does not warrant... FR 9565, 3 CFR, 1959-1963 Comp., p. 389. Sec. 71.1 0 2. The incorporation by reference in 14 CFR...

  15. 76 FR 45179 - Modification of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-28

    ... accommodate aircraft using Area Navigation (RNAV) Global Positioning System (GPS) standard instrument approach... proposed rulemaking to amend Class E controlled airspace at Glasgow, MT (76 FR 30300). Interested parties...) is not a ``significant rule'' under DOT Regulatory Policies and Procedures (44 FR 11034; February...

  16. Exploration and Validation of C-Reactive Protein/Albumin Ratio as a Novel Inflammation-Based Prognostic Marker in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yuan; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Liu, Xu; Chen, Lei; Li, Wen-Fei; Tang, Ling-Long; Liu, Qing; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Background: The prognostic value of C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CRP/Alb), a novel inflammation-based marker, remains unknown in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of 1572 consecutive patients with non-metastatic NPC. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 514) and validation set (n = 1058). The prognostic value of the CRP/Alb ratio and the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS; a well-recognized inflammation-based score) was assessed. Results: Receiver-operating characteristic analysis identified 0.05 as the optimal CRP/Alb cut-off value for disease failure in the training set. Patients with a CRP/Alb > 0.05 had poorer overall survival (OS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in the training set (all P < 0.05). These results were confirmed in the validation set (all P < 0.05) and the whole cohort (all P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis of the entire cohort, the pretreatment CRP/Alb ratio was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 1.394; 95% CI, 1.004-1.937; P = 0.048) and DMFS (HR, 1.545; 95% CI, 1.124-2.122; P = 0.007), but not for DFS (P = 0.083). The mGPS had no significant independent prognostic value for any end-point. Conclusion: CRP/Alb ratio is an useful prognostic indicator in patients with NPC, independent of disease stage. PMID:27471556

  17. Prognostic ability of EndoPredict compared to research-based versions of the PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) scores in node-positive, estrogen receptor-positive, and HER2-negative breast cancer. A GEICAM/9906 sub-study.

    PubMed

    Martin, Miguel; Brase, Jan C; Ruiz, Amparo; Prat, Aleix; Kronenwett, Ralf; Calvo, Lourdes; Petry, Christoph; Bernard, Philip S; Ruiz-Borrego, Manuel; Weber, Karsten E; Rodriguez, César A; Alvarez, Isabel M; Segui, Miguel A; Perou, Charles M; Casas, Maribel; Carrasco, Eva; Caballero, Rosalía; Rodriguez-Lescure, Alvaro

    2016-02-01

    There are several prognostic multigene-based tests for managing breast cancer (BC), but limited data comparing them in the same cohort. We compared the prognostic performance of the EndoPredict (EP) test (standardized for pathology laboratory) with the research-based PAM50 non-standardized qRT-PCR assay in node-positive estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and HER2-negative (HER2-) BC patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy followed by endocrine therapy (ET) in the GEICAM/9906 trial. EP and PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) scores [based on subtype (ROR-S) and on subtype and proliferation (ROR-P)] were compared in 536 ER+/HER2- patients. Scores combined with clinical information were evaluated: ROR-T (ROR-S, tumor size), ROR-PT (ROR-P, tumor size), and EPclin (EP, tumor size, nodal status). Patients were assigned to risk-categories according to prespecified cutoffs. Distant metastasis-free survival (MFS) was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier. ROR-S, ROR-P, and EP scores identified a low-risk group with a relative better outcome (10-year MFS: ROR-S 87 %; ROR-P 89 %; EP 93 %). There was no significant difference between tests. Predictors including clinical information showed superior prognostic performance compared to molecular scores alone (10-year MFS, low-risk group: ROR-T 88 %; ROR-PT 92 %; EPclin 100 %). The EPclin-based risk stratification achieved a significantly improved prediction of MFS compared to ROR-T, but not ROR-PT. All signatures added prognostic information to common clinical parameters. EPclin provided independent prognostic information beyond ROR-T and ROR-PT. ROR and EP can reliably predict risk of distant metastasis in node-positive ER+/HER2- BC patients treated with chemotherapy and ET. Addition of clinical parameters into risk scores improves their prognostic ability. PMID:26909792

  18. Prognostic significance of preoperative fibrinogen in patients with colon cancer

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Zhen-Qiang; Han, Xiao-Na; Wang, Hai-Jiang; Tang, Yong; Zhao, Ze-Liang; Qu, Yan-Li; Xu, Rui-Wei; Liu, Yan-Yan; Yu, Xian-Bo

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the prognostic significance of preoperative fibrinogen levels in colon cancer patients. METHODS: A total of 255 colon cancer patients treated at the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from June 1st 2005 to June 1st 2008 were enrolled in the study. All patients received radical surgery as their primary treatment method. Preoperative fibrinogen was detected by the Clauss method, and all patients were followed up after surgery. Preoperative fibrinogen measurements were correlated with a number of clinicopathological parameters using the Student t test and analysis of variance. Survival analyses were performed by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression modeling to measure 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: The mean preoperative fibrinogen concentration of all colon cancer patients was 3.17 ± 0.88 g/L. Statistically significant differences were found between preoperative fibrinogen levels and the clinicopathological parameters of age, smoking status, tumor size, tumor location, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, modified Glasgow prognostic scores (mGPS), white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels. Univariate survival analysis showed that TNM stage, tumor cell differentiation grade, vascular invasion, mGPS score, preoperative fibrinogen, WBC, NLR, PLR and CEA all correlated with both OS and DFS. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and body mass index correlated only with OS. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that both OS and DFS of the total cohort, as well as of the stage II and III patients, were higher in the hypofibrinogen group compared to the hyperfibrinogen group (all P < 0.05). In contrast, there was no significant difference between OS and DFS in stage I patients with low or high fibrinogen levels. Cox regression analysis indicated preoperative fibrinogen levels, TNM stage, mGPS score, CEA, and

  19. The medical collections at the University of Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Reilly, Maggie; McDonald, Stuart W

    2009-01-01

    The medical and other collections in the University of Glasgow have at their core the generous bequest of Dr William Hunter (1718 - 1783), a local man who rose to become an internationally renowned anatomist and obstetrician. The University does not have a Medical Museum as such but an Anatomy Museum, a Zoology Museum, a Pathology Collection, medical displays in the main halls of the Hunterian Museum in the Gilbert Scott Building and a rich collection of antiquarian medical books and archives as well as contemporary libraries. The Hunterian Collection, since its inauguration at the University of Glasgow in 1807, has engendered a spirit of diversity and scholarship that embraces many disciplines across the campus. The Hunterian Museum was the first public museum in Scotland and service to the local, national and international communities and response to their academic needs is very much at heart of its function today. PMID:20481359

  20. Glasgow Coma Scale and Outcomes after Structural Traumatic Head Injury in Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Heather, Natasha L.; Derraik, José G. B.; Beca, John; Hofman, Paul L.; Dansey, Rangi; Hamill, James; Cutfield, Wayne S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess the association of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) with radiological evidence of head injury (the Abbreviated Injury Scale for the head region, AIS-HR) in young children hospitalized with traumatic head injury (THI), and the predictive value of GCS and AIS-HR scores for long-term impairment. Methods Our study involved a 10-year retrospective review of a database encompassing all patients admitted to Starship Children’s Hospital (Auckland, New Zealand, 2000–2010) with THI. Results We studied 619 children aged <5 years at the time of THI, with long-term outcome data available for 161 subjects. Both GCS and AIS-HR scores were predictive of length of intensive care unit and hospital stay (all p<0.001). GCS was correlated with AIS-HR (ρ=-0.46; p<0.001), although mild GCS scores (13–15) commonly under-estimated the severity of radiological injury: 42% of children with mild GCS scores had serious–critical THI (AIS-HR 3–5). Increasingly severe GCS or AIS-HR scores were both associated with a greater likelihood of long-term impairment (neurological disability, residual problems, and educational support). However, long-term impairment was also relatively common in children with mild GCS scores paired with structural THI more severe than a simple linear skull fracture. Conclusion Severe GCS scores will identify most cases of severe radiological injury in early childhood, and are good predictors of poor long-term outcome. However, young children admitted to hospital with structural THI and mild GCS scores have an appreciable risk of long-term disability, and also warrant long-term follow-up. PMID:24312648

  1. The 20 item prosopagnosia index (PI20): relationship with the Glasgow face-matching test

    PubMed Central

    Sowden, Sophie; Gaule, Anne; Bird, Geoffrey

    2015-01-01

    The 20 item prosopagnosia index (PI20) was recently developed to identify individuals with developmental prosopagnosia. While the PI20’s principal purpose is to aid researchers and clinicians, it was suggested that it may serve as a useful screening tool to identify people with face recognition difficulties in applied settings where face matching is a critical part of their occupation. Although the PI20 has been validated using behavioural measures of face recognition, it has yet to be validated against a measure of face-matching ability that is more representative of applied settings. In this study, the PI20 was therefore administered with the Glasgow face-matching test (GFMT). A strong correlation was observed between PI20 and GFMT scores, providing further validation for the PI20, indicating that it is likely to be of value in applied settings. PMID:26715995

  2. Revisiting the eye opening response of the Glasgow Coma Scale.

    PubMed

    Rabiu, Taopheeq Bamidele

    2011-01-01

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), introduced by Teasdale and Jenneth in 1974, has received tremendous acclaim from clinicians and has been extensively used in clinical practice for the evaluation of the level of consciousness. The author notes that some traumatic brain injury patients close eyes in response to painful stimuli as opposed to the eye opening response to pain of the GCS. A revision of the eye opening response subsection of the GCS is suggested. PMID:21633551

  3. Unhealthy Glasgow: a case for ecological public health?

    PubMed

    Hanlon, Phil

    2015-10-01

    Ecological public health has been proposed as an approach appropriate for addressing the multiple transitions that currently affect human health and sustainability. The paper draws on the author's experience in public health in Glasgow to analyse the health challenges faced by this postindustrial Scottish city. Like other such cities, it not only faces multiple health challenges but also demonstrates a currently unexplained excess mortality that has been dubbed the 'Glasgow Effect'. To explore this troubled mixture, the paper outlines four historical waves of public health challenge and response in Glasgow over the last century, and proposes that a fifth is emerging. The challenge now is how to negotiate environmental sustainability with social, political and economic sustainability to enhance health for all. The paper suggests that gains made by past approaches still need to be protected and can be included within ecological public health, but they lack the wider vision, coherence and capacity required if cities are to address the scale and range of contemporary conditions. A number of lessons are offered for the ecological public health perspective. PMID:26376607

  4. Assessment of nurse’s knowledge about Glasgow coma scale at a university hospital

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Wesley Cajaíba; Vancini-Campanharo, Cássia Regina; Lopes, Maria Carolina Barbosa Teixeira; Okuno, Meiry Fernanda Pinto; Batista, Ruth Ester Assayag

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective To assess knowledge of nurses of emergency services and intensive care units about Glasgow Coma Scale. Methods This cross-sectional analytical study included 127 nurses of critical units of an university hospital. We used structured interview with 12 questions to evaluate their knowledge about the scale. Association of Knowledge with professionals’ sociodemographic variables were verified by the Fisher-test, χ2 and likelihood ratio. Results Most of participants were women mean aged 31.1 years, they had graduated more than 5 years previously, and had 1 to 3 years of work experience. In the assessment of best score possible for Glasgow scale (question 3) nurses who had graduate more than 5 years ago presented a lower percentage success rate (p=0.0476). However, in the question 7, which evaluated what interval of the scale indicated moderate severity of brain trauma injury, those with more years of experience had higher percentage of correct answers (p=0.0251). In addition, nurses from emergency service had more correct answers than nurses from intensive care unit (p=0.0143) in the same question. Nurses graduated for more than 5 years ago had a lower percentage of correct answers in question 7 (p=0.0161). Nurses with more work experience had a better score (p=0.0119) to identify how assessment of motor response should be started. Conclusion Number of year since graduation, experience, and work at critical care units interfered in nurses’ knowledge about the scale, which indicates the need of training. PMID:27462896

  5. Early Liver Failure after Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt in Patients with Cirrhosis with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score of 12 or Less: Incidence, Outcome, and Prognostic Factors.

    PubMed

    Luca, Angelo; Miraglia, Roberto; Maruzzelli, Luigi; D'Amico, Mario; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2016-08-01

    Purpose To evaluate the incidence, outcomes, and prognostic factors of early liver failure (ELF) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation in patients with cirrhosis with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score of 12 or less. Materials and Methods Institutional review board approved this retrospective study, with waiver of written informed consent. Two-hundred sixteen consecutive patients with cirrhosis (140 men, 76 women; mean age, 55.9 years; virus-related cirrhosis, 67.6% [146 of 216 patients]) with baseline MELD score of 12 or less who underwent TIPS placement between September 1999 and July 2012 were followed until last clinical evaluation, liver transplantation, or death. The Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and univariate and multivariate analyses were used, as appropriate. Results Twenty of 216 patients (9.2%) developed ELF within 3 months of TIPS (10 patients died, one required liver transplantation, and nine increased the MELD score to >18). ELF was associated with lower survival, 37% versus 95% at 6 months, and 24% versus 86% at 12 months (P < .001) compared with patients without ELF. ELF occurred in 16 of 95 (16.8%) patients with refractory ascites and in four of 121 (3.3%) patients with other indications for TIPS. Multivariate analysis confirmed MELD scores of 11 or 12 (odds ratio, 3.96 [95% confidence interval: 1.07, 14.67]; P = .040), decreased hemoglobin level (odds ratio, 0.68 [95% confidence interval: 0.49, 0.95]; P = .022), and decreased platelet count (odds ratio, 0.99 [95% confidence interval: 0.99, 0.99]; P = .024) as predictors for ELF in patients with refractory ascites. Conclusion ELF is not uncommon in cirrhotic patients with a MELD score of 12 or less who undergo TIPS placement for refractory ascites (especially in patients with MELD of 11 or 12) and decreased hemoglobin level and platelet count. (©) RSNA, 2016. PMID:26982564

  6. Learning from history: The Glasgow Airport terrorist attack.

    PubMed

    Crichton, Gillies

    Glasgow Airport was the target of a terrorist attack on 30th June, 2007. Many people within Scotland had come to believe that Scotland was immune from terrorism. This perception was in large part informed by Scotland's experience during the protracted Troubles in Northern Ireland, during which the Provisional Irish Republican Army's mainland bombing campaign focused on targets in England, sparing both Scotland and Wales. While Glasgow Airport did not expect such an attack to take place, meticulous planning, organising and testing of plans had taken place to mitigate the unlikely event of such an attack. The attack stands up as a shining example of robust business continuity management, where the airport reopened for business as usual in less than 24 hours from the time of the attack. Little is known about how the airport handled the situation in conjunction with other responding agencies as people tend to want to focus on high-profile disasters only. Yet countless such incidents are happening worldwide on a daily basis, in which there are excellent learning opportunities, and, taken in the spirit of converting hindsight into foresight, the likelihood of similar incidents could potentially be reduced in the future. PMID:25416378

  7. The Glasgow Outcome Scale - 40 years of application and refinement.

    PubMed

    McMillan, Tom; Wilson, Lindsay; Ponsford, Jennie; Levin, Harvey; Teasdale, Graham; Bond, Michael

    2016-08-01

    The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) was first published in 1975 by Bryan Jennett and Michael Bond. With over 4,000 citations to the original paper, it is the most highly cited outcome measure in studies of brain injury and the second most-cited paper in clinical neurosurgery. The original GOS and the subsequently developed extended GOS (GOSE) are recommended by several national bodies as the outcome measure for major trauma and for head injury. The enduring appeal of the GOS is linked to its simplicity, short administration time, reliability and validity, stability, flexibility of administration (face-to-face, over the telephone and by post), cost-free availability and ease of access. These benefits apply to other derivatives of the scale, including the Glasgow Outcome at Discharge Scale (GODS) and the GOS paediatric revision. The GOS was devised to provide an overview of outcome and to focus on social recovery. Since the initial development of the GOS, there has been an increasing focus on the multidimensional nature of outcome after head injury. This Review charts the development of the GOS, its refinement and usage over the past 40 years, and considers its current and future roles in developing an understanding of brain injury. PMID:27418377

  8. Prognostic factors of early outcome and discharge status in patients undergoing surgical intervention following traumatic intracranial hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Fujii, Tatsuhiro; Moriel, Gabriela; Kramer, Daniel R; Attenello, Frank; Zada, Gabriel

    2016-09-01

    Over the past several decades, the rate of traumatic brain injury (TBI)-related emergency room visits in the United States has steadily increased, yet mortality in these patients has decreased. This improvement in outcome is largely due to advances in prehospital care, intensive care unit management, and the effectiveness of neurosurgical procedures, such as decompressive craniectomies. It is imperative to identify clinical factors predictive of patients who benefit from early mobilization of resources and operative treatment. Equally important is the identification of patients with good prognostic signs among patients receiving surgical intervention for TBI. We conducted a retrospective chart review of 181 patients requiring craniectomies and craniotomies for decompression or evacuation of an intracranial hemorrhage following TBI at a single level I trauma center between 2008-2010. Demographic features and perioperative clinical characteristics of these patients were examined in relation to favorable outcomes, defined as discharge to home or a rehabilitation facility, and unfavorable outcomes, defined as in-hospital mortality or discharge to step-down medical facilities. Younger age, greater Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission, absence of preoperative coagulopathies, absence of hypernatremia, and absence of fever were all independent predictors of favorable outcome. Additionally, increased operative duration and increased length of hospital stay were identified as independent predictors of negative outcomes after surgery. This work supports some of the current prognostic models in the literature and identifies additional clinical variables with predictive value of early outcome and discharge status in patients undergoing surgical evacuation of traumatic intracranial hemorrhages. PMID:27424129

  9. Trigger Happy: The Troubling Trend of Primary School Closures in Glasgow City Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koch, Joshua F.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the continuing trend of school closures in Glasgow, Scotland. Particular attention will be paid to Stonedyke Primary School, which Glasgow City Council was proposing to close at the time of this research. Current statistical data and research is used to better examine the current crisis Stonedyke Primary faces. Furthermore,…

  10. [Value of early acoustic and somatosensory evoked potentials in monitoring and prognostic assessment of coma in barbiturate therapy--comparison with clinical aspects and EEG].

    PubMed

    Reisecker, F; Witzmann, A; Löffler, W; Leblhuber, F; Deisenhammer, E; Valencak, E

    1987-03-01

    25 comatose patients suffering from severe cerebral lesions of different etiology were examined during barbiturate-therapy by Glasgow-Pittsburg-Coma-Scoring-System (GPCS), EEG, somatosensory and brainstem acoustic evoked potentials. The findings were correlated in view of prognostic prediction and importance for monitoring. A modified form of the Glasgow-Outcome-Score (GOS; independent-survival, dependent-survival, dead) was used for evaluating the outcome. In case of an initial GPCS less than 10 points none of the patients survived, in case of GPCS greater than 10 points 11 out of 19 patients survived. The latter relation of survival was also found in patients with improving or impairing scores during the observation period. In case of initial burst-suppression pattern in the EEG 7 out of 11 patients survived, in case of diffuse abnormalities with or with-out additional focal signs - 4 out of 10 patients survived, but in the latter there was none with an outcome of independent survival. All patients with an isoelectric EEG died. In case of bilateral recording of scalp- SEP 7 out of 11 patients survived, in case of unilateral loss of scalp-EP 4 out of 8 patients survived, but in the latter cases none with an outcome of independence. All patients with initial bilateral failure of scalp-SSEP or loss during the observation period died. In case of bilateral registrable BAEP (wave I to V) 11 out of 17 patients survived. All patients with initial uni- or bilateral failure of those potentials or loss during the observation period died.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3106004

  11. Clinical Profile and Prognostic Indicators in Adults Hospitalized with Severe Malaria Caused by Different Plasmodium Species

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Bal Kishan; Gupta, Anjli; Nehra, Hardev Ram; Balotia, Heera Ram; Meena, Shyam Lal; Kumar, Surendra

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Severe malaria remains a major cause of death and morbidity among adults in the Asiatic tropics. This study was planned to evaluate clinical profile and prognostic indicators of severe malaria in adults so as to improve insight into this highly prevalent disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS This prospective observational study was conducted on 60 confirmed cases of malaria. Cases were divided into two groups: (a) study group: suffering from severe malaria and (b) control group: no severe manifestations. All cases were thoroughly studied for clinical features, laboratory evaluation, and outcome. Prognostic evaluation was also done by different score systems. RESULTS In all, 40 cases suffer from severe malaria (study group), while 20 cases belong to the control group. The majority of our cases were males of age 21–40 years. The most common species of malaria in the study group was vivax (52.5%), followed by falciparum (25%) and mixed malaria species (22.5%). The clinical predictors for severe malaria were rural habitat, longer duration of fever, marked chills, tiredness, giddiness, nausea, vomiting, decreased urine output, jaundice, and altered sensorium. Extreme weakness (80%), jaundice (55%), renal failure (50%), and severe anemia (27.5%) were the most common presenting features in severe malaria. Two patients died of severe mixed malaria. The mortality rate was significantly associated with lower hemoglobin level (P = 0.002); higher total leukocyte count (P = 0.006), blood urea (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), SGOT (P = 0.001), SGPT (P < 0.007), serum bilirubin (P = 0.003), and parasite density (P = 0.033); lower platelet count (P = 0.043); and those who had more APACHE II score (P = 0.003), SOFA score (P = 0.04), and Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (P < 0.001) and lower Glasgow Coma Scale (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Manifestations of severe malaria is becoming increasingly more prevalent specifically in vivax and mixed malaria cases. Our study

  12. Role of computed tomography scores and findings to predict early death in patients with traumatic brain injury: A reappraisal in a major tertiary care hospital in Nepal

    PubMed Central

    Munakomi, Sunil; Bhattarai, Binod; Srinivas, Balaji; Cherian, Iype

    2016-01-01

    Background: Glasgow Coma Scale has been a long sought model to classify patients with head injury. However, the major limitation of the score is its assessment in the patients who are either sedated or under the influence of drugs or intubated for airway protection. The rational approach for prognostication of such patients is the utility of scoring system based on the morphological criteria based on radiological imaging. Among the current armamentarium, a scoring system based on computed tomography (CT) imaging holds the greatest promise in conquering our conquest for the same. Methods: We included a total of 634 consecutive neurosurgical trauma patients in this series, who presented with mild-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) from January 2013 to April 2014 at a tertiary care center in rural Nepal. All pertinent medical records (including all available imaging studies) were reviewed by the neurosurgical consultant and the radiologist on call. Patients’ worst CT image scores and their outcome at 30 days were assessed and recorded. We then assessed their independent performance in predicting the mortality and also tried to seek the individual variables that had significant interplay for determining the same. Results: Both imaging score (Marshall) and clinical score (Rotterdam) can be used to reliably predict mortality in patients with acute TBI with high prognostic accuracy. Other specific CT characteristics that can be used to predict early mortality are traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage, midline shift, and status of the peri-mesencephalic cisterns. Conclusion: We demonstrated in this cohort that though the Marshall score has the high predictive power to determine the mortality, better discrimination could be sought through the application of the Rotterdam score that encompasses various individual CT parameters. We thereby recommend the use of such comprehensive prognostic model so as to augment our predictive power for properly dichotomizing the prognosis

  13. Retrospective study on prognostic importance of serum procalcitonin and amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels as compared to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Score on Intensive Care Unit admission, in a mixed Intensive Care Unit population

    PubMed Central

    Mehta, Chitra; Dara, Babita; Mehta, Yatin; Tariq, Ali M.; Joby, George V.; Singh, Manish K.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Timely decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is very essential to improve the outcome of critically sick patients. Conventional scores like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE IV) are quite cumbersome with calculations and take minimum 24 hours. Procalcitonin has shown to have prognostic value in ICU/Emergency department (ED) in disease states like pneumonia, sepsis etc. NTproBNP has demonstrated excellent diagnostic and prognostic importance in cardiac diseases. It has also been found elevated in non-cardiac diseases. We chose to study the prognostic utility of these markers on ICU admission. Settings and Design: Retrospective observational study. Materials and Methods: A Retrospective analysis of 100 eligible patients was done who had undergone PCT and NTproBNP measurements on ICU admission. Their correlations with all cause mortality, length of hospital stay, need for ventilator support, need for vasopressors were performed. Results: Among 100 randomly selected ICU patients, 28 were non-survivors. NTproBNP values on admission significantly correlated with all cause mortality (P = 0.036, AUC = 0.643) and morbidity (P = 0.000, AUC = 0.763), comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. PCT values on admission did not show significant association with mortality, but correlated well with morbidity and prolonged hospital length of stay (AUC = 0.616, P = 0.045). Conclusion: The current study demonstrated a good predictive value of NTproBNP, in terms of mortality and morbidity comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. Procalcitonin, however, was found to have doubtful prognostic importance. These findings need to be confirmed in a prospective larger study. PMID:27052066

  14. Outcome and prognostic factors of malaria-associated acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis: A single center experience

    PubMed Central

    Kute, V. B.; Shah, P. R.; Munjappa, B. C.; Gumber, M. R.; Patel, H. V.; Jain, S. H.; Engineer, D. P.; Naresh, V. V. Sai; Vanikar, A. V.; Trivedi, H. L.

    2012-01-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most dreaded complications of severe malaria. We carried out prospective study in 2010, to describe clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, prognostic factors, and outcome in 59 (44 males, 15 females) smear-positive malaria patients with AKI. The severity of illness was assessed using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores. All patients received artesunate and hemodialysis (HD). Mean age of patients was 33.63 ± 14 years. Plasmodium falciparum malaria was seen in 76.3% (n = 45), Plasmodium vivax in 16.9% (n = 10), and mixed infection in 6.8% (n = 4) patients. Presenting clinical features were fever (100%), nausea-vomiting (85%), oliguria (61%), abdominal pain/tenderness (50.8%), and jaundice (74.5%). Mean APACHE II, SOFA, MODS, and GCS scores were 18.1 ± 3, 10.16 ± 3.09, 9.71 ± 2.69, and 14.15 ± 1.67, respectively, all were higher among patients who died than among those who survived. APACHE II ≥20, SOFA and MODS scores ≥12 were associated with higher mortality (P < 0.05). 34% patients received blood component transfusion and exchange transfusion was done in 15%. Mean number of HD sessions required was 4.59 ± 3.03. Renal biopsies were performed in five patients (three with patchy cortical necrosis and two with acute tubular necrosis). 81.3% of patients had complete renal recovery and 11.8% succumbed to malaria. Prompt diagnosis, timely HD, and supportive therapy were associated with improved survival and recovery of kidney functions in malarial with AKI. Mortality was associated with higher APACHE II, SOFA, MODS, GCS scores, requirement of inotrope, and ventilator support. PMID:22279340

  15. Gender Differences in Community-acquired Meningitis in Adults: Clinical Presentations and Prognostic Factors

    PubMed Central

    Dharmarajan, Lavanya; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hasbun, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    Community-acquired meningitis is a serious disease that is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to investigate the gender differences involved with the clinical presentations of and prognostic factors for this disease. We conducted a retrospective study of 619 adults diagnosed with community-acquired meningitis in Houston, Texas, who were hospitalized between 2005 and 2010. Patients were categorized as male or female. Those who were evaluated to have a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of four or less were classified to have an adverse clinical outcome. Males consisted of 47.2% (292/619) of the total cohort, and more often presented with coexisting medical conditions, fever, abnormal microbiology results, and abnormalities on head computed tomography. Females more often presented with nuchal rigidity. On logistic regression, fever, CSF glucose <45 mg/dL, and an abnormal neurological examination were predictors of an adverse outcome in male patients, while age greater than 60 years and an abnormal neurological examination were associated with a poor prognosis in female patients. Thus, community-acquired meningitis in males differs significantly from females in regards to comorbidities, presenting symptoms and signs, abnormal laboratory and imaging analysis, and predictors of adverse clinical outcomes. PMID:27500284

  16. [Prognostic evaluation of patients with severe head injury by motor evoked potentials induced by transcranial magnetic stimulation--combined analysis with brainstem auditory evoked potentials].

    PubMed

    Kaneko, M

    1995-05-01

    Prognostic evaluation of severe head injury was performed on the basis of transcranial magnetic motor evoked potentials (MEPs) and brainstem auditory evoked potentials (BAEPs). The subjects were 43 severe head injury patients with Glasgow Coma Scale Scores (GCS) of 9 or less. MEPs were recorded within 3 days after the injury. Patient outcome at 1, 6 and 12 months after the injury was correlated with the MEPs and BAEPs. Differences between MEP and BAEP findings in focal lesions and diffuse lesions also were analyzed. MEP wave latencies and inter-peak latencies between BAEP waves IV and V and between waves I and V were evaluated. There was a closer relationship between MEP latency and GOS, especially between the good recovery group and other outcome groups. At 1 month after the injury, there was a closer correlation between MEP latency and BAEP latency in those who died than in those who survived, and this tendency was more evident with regard to focal lesions. However, there was no significant correlation between MEP and patient outcome when the lesions were diffuse. There was no correlation between BAEP latencies and patient outcome, but there was a good, close correlation between prolonged MEP latency and unfavorable outcome at 1, 6, 12 months after injury. In conclusion, the combined use of BAEPs and MEPs induced by transcranial magnetic stimulation is useful in prognostic evaluation of acute head injury patients, especially when the brain lesions are focal. PMID:7786626

  17. Some new insights into the history of the Glasgow time ball and time guns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, David; Kinns, Roger

    2012-03-01

    The 1857 time ball machinery at the Glasgow Sailors' Home was supplied by Alexander McKenzie, mechanist, using a design that had much in common with the 1853 Edinburgh apparatus. It was operated using electrical connections to a mean time clock in the Home. This clock required adjustment by hand each day to compensate for its losing rate. Such manual intervention and lack of independent verification of accuracy under-mined the authority of the signal. The relative prestige of the Glasgow and Edinburgh Observatories was an important issue. There was no telegraphic link between Glasgow Observatory and the City until the end of 1863, but it had been demonstrated as early as October 1855 that a time ball could be dropped by telegraph from Edinburgh. Another Edinburgh initiative in September 1863 using time guns fired from Edinburgh caused offence in Glasgow and the trials were terminated in February 1864. Professor Grant, Director of Glasgow Observatory, argued successfully that a system of slave clocks controlled from Glasgow Observatory would be far superior to either a time ball or time guns which only provided a signal once per day. He won the debate in March 1864.

  18. An Exploration of Smoking Behavior of African Male Immigrants Living in Glasgow

    PubMed Central

    Ezika, Ejiofor Augustine

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION The aim of this research study was to explore the smoking behavior of adult African male immigrant smokers living in Glasgow to inform and contribute to primary health promotion frameworks. METHODS 25 adult African male immigrant smokers living in Glasgow were recruited via consecutive sampling by soliciting for participation through the use of flyers, posters and word of mouth. Data collection occurred via semi-structured face-to-face interviews. The interviews were audio taped, after which verbatim transcription was carried out and the data analyzed thematically. RESULTS The participants’ smoking habits were influenced by cold weather environment as well as societal norms that appear to make the smoking habit more acceptable in Glasgow than Africa. It appears the more educated the participants were, the fewer cigarettes they smoked. However, there was only a slight difference in the number of cigarettes smoked between participants with a degree and those with a postgraduate degree. CONCLUSION The participants’ smoking habits in Glasgow appear to have increased because of environmental variables associated with living in Glasgow, specifically the cold weather environment and high acceptability of smoking habits in Glasgow. PMID:25741179

  19. Space Radar Image of Missouri River, Glasgow, Missouri

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    This is a false-color L-band image of an area near Glasgow, Missouri, centered at about 39.2 degrees north latitude and 92.8 degrees west longitude. The image was acquired by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) aboard the space shuttle Endeavour on its 50th orbit on October 3, 1994. The false-color composite was made by displaying the L-band (horizontally transmitted and received) return in red; the L-band (horizontally transmitted and vertically received) return in green; and the sum of the two channels in blue. The area shown is approximately 37 kilometers by 25 kilometers (23 miles by 16 miles). The radar data, coupled with pre-flood aerial photography and satellite data and post-flood topographic and field data, are being used to evaluate changes associated with levee breaks in landforms, where deposits formed during the widespread flooding in 1993 along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The distinct radar scattering properties of farmland, sand fields and scoured areas will be used to inventory floodplains along the Missouri River and determine the processes by which these areas return to preflood conditions. The image shows one such levee break near Glasgow, Missouri. In the upper center of the radar image is a region covered by several meters of sand, shown as blue regions below the bend in the river. West (left) of this dark area, a blue gap in the levee tree canopy can be seen, showing the area where the levee failed. Radar data such as these can help scientists more accurately assess the potential for future flooding in this region and how that might impact surrounding communities. Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar(SIR-C/X-SAR) is part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. The radars illuminate Earth with microwaves, allowing detailed observations at any time, regardless of weather or sunlight conditions. SIR-C/X-SAR uses three microwave wavelengths: L-band (24 cm), C-band (6 cm

  20. Aspects of neurosurgical assessment using the Glasgow Coma Scale.

    PubMed

    Ellis, A; Cavanagh, S J

    1992-06-01

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) has become a cornerstone of the neurological/surgical assessment of patients used by both nursing and medical staff. Since its development in the 1970s it has been used in a variety of clinical situations to monitor changes in a number of key neurological functions, including level of consciousness, pupil reaction and limb movement. During this time, however, there have been suggestions that there are problems with some of the measurement principles underlying its use, which in part has stimulated the development of other neuro-assessment tools. Irrespective of measurement device, there is always the possibility of error or incorrect assessment. In the field of neurosurgery, as with other high dependency environments, a patient's condition can change rapidly. Additionally, there is the association of certain assessment responses with nursing and medical interventions. Thus, accuracy in all aspects of assessment and recording is paramount. Despite the growing body of literature surrounding the GCS, little is known about the pattern of errors made by nursing staff using the GCS to assess neurosurgical patients. This study compared the assessment findings of Registered General Nurses (RGNs), Enrolled Nurses and Student Nurses after viewing videotaped neuro-assessments of patients in a high dependency unit. The criterion for judging the accuracy of subject's assessments was established by a panel of experts. As expected, RGNs had the highest proportion of correct assessments and students the least. Subjects were identified as having difficulty in determining the relative amounts of weakness that a patient exhibited, and in correctly distinguishing between flexion and extension. PMID:1611292

  1. Predictive power of UKCAT and other pre-admission measures for performance in a medical school in Glasgow: a cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) and its four subtests are currently used by 24 Medical and Dental Schools in the UK for admissions. This longitudinal study examines the predictive validity of UKCAT for final performance in the undergraduate medical degree programme at one Medical School and compares this with the predictive validity of the selection measures available pre-UKCAT. Methods This was a retrospective observational study of one cohort of students, admitted to Glasgow Medical School in 2007. We examined the associations which UKCAT scores, school science grades and pre-admissions interview scores had with performance indicators, particularly final composite scores that determine students’ postgraduate training opportunities and overall ranking (Educational Performance Measure - EPM, and Honours and Commendation – H&C). Analyses were conducted both with and without adjustment for potential socio-demographic confounders (gender, age, ethnicity and area deprivation). Results Despite its predictive value declining as students progress through the course, UKCAT was associated with the final composite scores. In mutually adjusted analyses (also adjusted for socio-demographic confounders), only UKCAT total showed independent relationships with both EPM (p = 0.005) and H&C (p = 0.004), school science achievements predicted EPM (p = 0.009), and pre-admissions interview score predicted neither. UKCAT showed less socio-demographic variation than did TSS. Conclusion UKCAT has a modest predictive power for overall course performance at the University of Glasgow Medical School over and above that of school science achievements or pre-admission interview score and we conclude that UKCAT is the most useful predictor of final ranking. PMID:24919950

  2. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS) that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006), we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P), prehospital phase (A), early (B1), and late (B2) trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P), logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63). Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A) showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82). Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1) showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85). Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2) detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS) of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90). The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma score is

  3. Apgar score

    MedlinePlus

    ... the baby's: Breathing effort Heart rate Muscle tone Reflexes Skin color Each category is scored with 0, ... scores 2 for muscle tone. Grimace response or reflex irritability is a term describing response to stimulation, ...

  4. Nine scoring models for short-term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: cross-validation in a biopsy-proven cohort

    PubMed Central

    Papastergiou, V; Tsochatzis, E A; Pieri, G; Thalassinos, E; Dhar, A; Bruno, S; Karatapanis, S; Luong, T V; O'Beirne, J; Patch, D; Thorburn, D; Burroughs, A K

    2014-01-01

    Background Several prognostic models have emerged in alcoholic hepatitis (AH), but lack of external validation precludes their universal use. Aim To validate the Maddrey Discriminant Function (DF); Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Mayo End-stage Liver Disease (MELD); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC); MELD-Na, UK End-stage Liver Disease (UKELD), and three scores of corticosteroid response at 1 week: an Early Change in Bilirubin Levels (ECBL), a 25% fall in bilirubin, and the Lille score. Methods Seventy-one consecutive patients with biopsy-proven AH, admitted between November 2007-September 2011, were evaluated. The clinical and biochemical parameters were analysed to assess prognostic models with respect to 30- and 90-day mortality. Results There were no significant differences in the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs) relative to 30-day/90-day mortality: MELD 0.79/0.84, DF 0.71/0.74, GAHS 0.75/0.78, ABIC 0.71/0.78, MELD-Na 0.68/0.76, UKELD 0.56/0.68. One-week rescoring yielded a trend towards improved predictive accuracies (30-day/90-day AUROCs: 0.69–0.84/0.77–0.86). In patients with admission DF ≥32 (n = 31), response to corticosteroids according to ECBL, 25% fall in bilirubin and the Lille model yielded AUROCs of 0.73/0.73, 0.78/0.72 and 0.81/0.82 for a 30-day/90-day outcome respectively. All models showed excellent negative predictive values (NPVs; range: 86–100%), while the positive ones were low (range: 17–50%). Conclusions MELD, DF, GAHS, ABIC and scores of corticosteroid response proved to be valid in an independent cohort of biopsy-proven alcoholic hepatitis. MELD modifications incorporating sodium did not confer any prognostic advantage over classical MELD. Based on excellent NPVs, the models are best to identify patients at low risk of death. PMID:24612165

  5. A tale of two cities: a review of homicide in Melbourne and Glasgow in 2005.

    PubMed

    Lynch, Matthew; Black, Marjorie

    2008-01-01

    The Departments of Forensic Medicine and Science at the University of Glasgow and the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine in Melbourne are academic university-based forensic medicine units providing a medico-legal death investigation service to the Strathclyde region of Scotland and the State of Victoria, Australia, respectively. We reviewed and compared homicides in the two jurisdictions for the year 2005. Whilst gross numbers were comparable, the homicide rate per capita was significantly higher in Glasgow. Death due to stabbing comprised a greater proportion of homicides in Glasgow, reflective of a well recognised social epidemic of knife-related trauma amongst young males. Blunt force trauma was the most prevalent cause of homicidal injury in the Australian cases. The cities shared a low incidence of firearm- related homicide, reflective of strict legislative initiatives. PMID:18341154

  6. Randomized controlled trial of a scoring aid to improve GCS scoring by EMS providers (Brief Report)

    PubMed Central

    Feldman, Amanda Lynn; Hart, Kimberly Ward; Lindsell, Christopher John; McMullan, Jason T.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Emergency medical services (EMS) personnel frequently use the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) to assess injured and critically ill patients. This study assessed the accuracy of EMS providers’ GCS scoring as well as the improvement in GCS assessment with the use of a scoring aid. Methods This randomized, controlled study was conducted in the emergency department (ED) of an urban, academic trauma center. Emergency medical technicians or paramedics who transported a patient to the ED were randomly assessed one of nine written scenarios, either with or without a GCS scoring aid. Scenarios were created by consensus of expert attending emergency medicine, EMS, and neurocritical care physicians with universal consensus agreement on GCS scores. Chi-square and student’s t-tests were used to compare groups. Results Of 180 participants, 178 completed the study. Overall, 73/178 (41%) participants gave a GCS score that matched the expert consensus score. GCS was correct in 22/88 (25%) of cases without the scoring aid. GCS was correct in 51/90 (57%) of cases with the scoring aid. Most (69%) of total GCS scores fell within one point of the expert consensus GCS score. Differences in accuracy were most pronounced in scenarios with a correct GCS of 12 or below. Sub-component accuracy was: eye 62%, verbal 70%, and motor 51%. Conclusion In this study, 60% of EMS participants provided inaccurate GCS estimates. Use of a GCS scoring aid improved accuracy of EMS GCS assessments. PMID:25199613

  7. Perspectives on differing health outcomes by city: accounting for Glasgow's excess mortality.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Simon Ds; George, Steve

    2015-01-01

    Several health outcomes (including mortality) and health-related behaviors are known to be worse in Scotland than in comparable areas of Europe and the United Kingdom. Within Scotland, Greater Glasgow (in West Central Scotland) experiences disproportionately poorer outcomes independent of measurable variation in socioeconomic status and other important determinants. Many reasons for this have been proposed, particularly related to deprivation, inequalities, and variation in health behaviors. The use of models (such as the application of Bradford Hill's viewpoints on causality to the different hypotheses) has provided useful insights on potentially causal mechanisms, with health behaviors and inequalities likely to represent the strongest individual candidates. This review describes the evolution of our understanding of Glasgow's excess mortality, summarizes some of the key work in this area, and provides some suggestions for future areas of exploration. In the context of demographic change, the experience in Glasgow is an important example of the complexity that frequently lies behind observed variations in health outcomes within and between populations. A comprehensive explanation of Glasgow's excess mortality may continue to remain elusive, but is likely to lie in a complex and difficult-to-measure interplay of health determinants acting at different levels in society throughout the life course. Lessons learned from the detailed examination of different potentially causative determinants in Scotland may provide useful methodological insights that may be applied in other settings. Ongoing efforts to unravel the causal mechanisms are needed to inform public health efforts to reduce health inequalities and improve outcomes in Scotland. PMID:26124684

  8. Drug Issues Affecting Chinese, Indian and Pakistani People Living in Greater Glasgow

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, A. J.; Heim, D.; Bakshi, N.; Davies, J. B.; Flatley, K. J.; Hunter, S. C.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes research on drug issues affecting Chinese, Indian and Pakistani people living in Greater Glasgow. There were two strands: (i) a questionnaire-based survey of young people and focus groups; (ii) interviews with young people and adults. The primary aims were to gather prevalence data and to investigate perceptions about current…

  9. The Use of Electronic Information Services and Information Literacy: A Glasgow Caledonian University Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, John

    2006-01-01

    The study was undertaken as part of the LIRG/SCONUL Value and Impact study and sought to establish direct evidence of the impact of electronic information services (EIS) on Glasgow Caledonian University students, both past and present. Evidence of the spread of information literacy among students and alumni was also sought. An electronic…

  10. Contested Urban Spaces: Exploring the Analytics of Young Persons' Experiences of Living in Glasgow's Deprived Zones

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holligan, Chris; Deuchar, Ross

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports findings from an exploratory study of mainly young people's verbally articulated perceptions of urban life in Glasgow, Scotland. The focus is upon areas of deprivation where territory and social capital is contested and whose meanings are possibly only partially grasped by our informants. Their personal knowledge of violence and…

  11. 78 FR 67218 - CSX Transportation, Inc.-Trackage Rights Exemption-Glasgow Railway Company

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Surface Transportation Board CSX Transportation, Inc.--Trackage Rights Exemption--Glasgow Railway Company..., referring to Docket No. FD 35778, must be filed with the Surface Transportation Board, 395 E Street...

  12. Scored Discussions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zola, John

    1992-01-01

    Suggests a classroom strategy to help students learn to analyze and discuss significant issues from history and current policy debates. Describes scored discussions in which small groups of students receive points for participation. Provides an example of a discussion on gold mining. Includes an agenda. Explores uses of scored discussions and…

  13. Scoring Package

    National Institute of Standards and Technology Data Gateway

    NIST Scoring Package (PC database for purchase)   The NIST Scoring Package (Special Database 1) is a reference implementation of the draft Standard Method for Evaluating the Performance of Systems Intended to Recognize Hand-printed Characters from Image Data Scanned from Forms.

  14. External validation of the CRASH and IMPACT prognostic models in severe traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Han, Julian; King, Nicolas K K; Neilson, Sam J; Gandhi, Mihir P; Ng, Ivan

    2014-07-01

    An accurate prognostic model is extremely important in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) for both patient management and research. Clinical prediction models must be validated both internally and externally before they are considered widely applicable. Our aim is to independently externally validate two prediction models, one developed by the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury (CRASH) trial investigators, and the other from the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) group. We used a cohort of 300 patients with severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score [GCS] ≤8) consecutively admitted to the National Neuroscience Institute (NNI), Singapore, between February 2006 and December 2009. The CRASH models (base and CT) predict 14 day mortality and 6 month unfavorable outcome. The IMPACT models (core, extended, and laboratory) estimate 6 month mortality and unfavorable outcome. Validation was based on measures of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test and Cox calibration regression analysis. In the NNI database, the overall observed 14 day mortality was 47.7%, and the observed 6 month unfavorable outcome was 71.0%. The CRASH base model and all three IMPACT models gave an underestimate of the observed values in our cohort when used to predict outcome. Using the CRASH CT model, the predicted 14 day mortality of 46.6% approximated the observed outcome, whereas the predicted 6 month unfavorable outcome was an overestimate at 74.8%. Overall, both the CRASH and IMPACT models showed good discrimination, with AUCs ranging from 0.80 to 0.89, and good overall calibration. We conclude that both the CRASH and IMPACT models satisfactorily predicted outcome in our patients with severe TBI. PMID:24568201

  15. Discriminating Malaria from Dengue Fever in Endemic Areas: Clinical and Biological Criteria, Prognostic Score and Utility of the C-Reactive Protein: A Retrospective Matched-Pair Study in French Guiana

    PubMed Central

    Epelboin, Loïc; Boullé, Charlotte; Ouar-Epelboin, Sihem; Hanf, Matthieu; Dussart, Philippe; Djossou, Félix; Nacher, Mathieu; Carme, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue and malaria are two major public health concerns in tropical settings. Although the pathogeneses of these two arthropod-borne diseases differ, their clinical and biological presentations are unspecific. During dengue epidemics, several hundred patients with fever and diffuse pain are weekly admitted at the emergency room. It is difficult to discriminate them from patients presenting malaria attacks. Furthermore, it may be impossible to provide a parasitological microscopic examination for all patients. This study aimed to establish a diagnostic algorithm for communities where dengue fever and malaria occur at some frequency in adults. Methodology/Principal Findings A sub-study using the control groups of a case-control study in French Guiana – originally designed to compare dengue and malaria co-infected cases to single infected cases – was performed between 2004 and 2010. In brief, 208 patients with malaria matched to 208 patients with dengue fever were compared in the present study. A predictive score of malaria versus dengue was established using .632 bootstrap procedures. Multivariate analysis showed that male gender, age, tachycardia, anemia, thrombocytopenia, and CRP>5 mg/l were independently associated with malaria. The predictive score using those variables had an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82–0.89), and the CRP was the preponderant predictive factor. The sensitivity and specificity of CRP>5 mg/L to discriminate malaria from dengue were of 0.995 (95%CI: 0.991–1) and 0.35 (95%CI 0.32–0.39), respectively. Conclusions/Significance The clinical and biological score performed relatively well for discriminating cases of dengue versus malaria. Moreover, using only the CRP level turned to be a useful biomarker to discriminate feverish patients at low risk of malaria in an area where both infections exist. It would avoid more than 33% of unnecessary parasitological examinations with a very low risk of missing a malaria attack. PMID:24069477

  16. Comparison of selected inflammation-based prognostic markers in relapsed or refractory metastatic colorectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Song, Anna; Eo, Wankyu; Lee, Sookyung

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the impact of systemic inflammation-based prognostic markers on overall survival in relapsed/refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. METHODS: To investigate prognostic markers in mCRC patients, this study was performed with patients who have experienced relapsed/refractory mCRC with standard chemotherapy or were inapplicable to conventional treatment modality because of poor performance status, age, or comorbidity. We reviewed the medical records of 177 mCRC patients managed with Korean Medicine (KM) treatment modality using an anticancer agent of Rhus verniciflua Stokes extract from June 2006 to April 2013. The clinicopathologic characteristics, laboratory test, the systemic inflammation markers including the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte monocyte ratio (LMR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were analyzed. The overall survival of patients was calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method and the statistical significance was compared using with the log-rank test. To compare the impact of systemic inflammation based markers, the hazard ratio (HR) of mGPS, NLR, PLR, LMR, and PNI for overall survival were evaluated with the Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The majority of mCRC patients had relapsed/refractory to standard chemotherapy; 128 patients (72.3%) had undergone more than second line chemotherapy, and the median time from diagnosis of mCRC to initiation of KM was 9.4 mo. The median overall survival of enrolled patients was 8.3 mo. On univariate analyses, the inflammation markers of higher mGPS (P < 0.001), NLR ≥ 5 (P < 0.001), PLR > 300 (P = 0.004), LMR ≤ 3.4 (P < 0.001), and PNI ≤ 45.3 (P = 0.001) were significantly associated with decreased survival time. On stepwise multivariate proportional hazards model, mGPS at 2 vs 0 (HR = 3.212, 95%CI: 1.437-7.716, P = 0.004), and LMR ≤ 3.4 (HR = 1.658, 95%CI: 1

  17. Kinderheilkunde and continental connections in child health: the "Glasgow school revisited"--again.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Lawrence T

    2013-10-01

    The last two hundred years or so have seen the transformation of medical practice from a clinical art to the application of science to the diagnosis and treatment of disease. There has been a historical debate about how the use of technology and discoveries of the laboratory have become integrated within medical practice. In trying to understand the evolution of "scientific medicine," this has generally focused on the tensions between the differing cultures, persons, and professions of the "laboratory" and "clinic" and sought to explain how they were resolved within specific institutions. This paper looks again at the "Glasgow School" (the subject of a number of seminal papers on this subject) and the forces that shaped it, by exploring the career of Leonard Findlay, whose training in Glasgow, and in Berlin (where he worked in a department in which science and medicine were integrated), defined a style of clinical medicine that formed the model for a new sort of university department of medicine in which clinicians and scientists worked side by side, albeit under the leadership of the former. As a clinician exposed in Berlin to the emerging new sciences of nutrition, microbiology, and immunology, which were particularly relevant to the care of sick children, Findlay created in Glasgow a department of medical pediatrics, which owed less to local factors, figures, and forces and more to his experience in Germany. PMID:22492737

  18. Good in parts: the Gay Men's Task Force in Glasgow--a response to Kelly.

    PubMed

    Hart, G J; Williamson, L M; Flowers, P

    2004-02-01

    We know that peer education, or the use of popular opinion leaders (POLs), works in terms of reducing reported risk behaviour for HIV infection amongst gay men. The work of Jeffrey Kelly and his colleagues provides some of the best scientific evidence in support of this approach. Influenced by this work, we undertook a peer education intervention amongst gay men in bars in Glasgow--the Gay Men's Task Force (GMTF)--but failed to demonstrate any reduction in sexual risk behaviour for HIV infection. In this paper we describe why we were unable to repeat in Scotland the success in small cities in the USA of the POL model. Our explanations include: failure to replicate the 'core elements' of POL; spatial and temporal differences between the original POL settings and the bars of Glasgow; and the currency of ideas such as 'peer education' beyond the protocols designed for their implementation. However, we also describe some of the successful features of the GMTF in Glasgow, and the continued value of peer education in contributing to reductions in sexual risk behaviour for HIV infection. PMID:14676022

  19. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  20. The Unseen Founders Of Quaternary Science - The Men Of Glasgow, Scotland (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, J.

    2010-12-01

    Louis Agassiz (1807-1873) and Charles Lyell (1797-1875) are widely regarded as the founders of Quaternary Science, and there is no doubt that they played their part: Agassiz in 1840 presented and promoted his case for the wide-scale fluctuations of glaciers, and Lyell, through his books and contacts, did much to introduce the subject which we now know as climate change. However there are a number of individuals who contributed to the founding of Quaternary Science who are not so readily recognised and a remarkable fact is that a significant proportion were men without academic training or background who come from, or worked in Glasgow or the adjacent region of central Scotland. First amongst the Glaswegians was James Smith (1782-1867) who, in 1836 presented a paper to the Geological Society of London (where it was duly ignored) in which he suggested, on the basis of fossils dredged from the bed of the Clyde and experience of sailing around Iceland, that the climate of Scotland had been as cold as that of Iceland in the recent past. In 1841, Charles Maclaren (1782-1866) a journalist from Edinburgh, but using information based on raised shorelines near Glasgow proposed what we now know as the glacio-eustatic theory in which the variations in glacier extent control the level of the sea. Perhaps the most important of all was James Croll (1821- 1890) who worked on the theory of ice ages, based on orbital forcing, while janitor at the Andersonian Institute and Museum in Glasgow between 1859-1867. This work was the true precursor to the Milankovitch theory which provides the explanation for the major predictable elements of climate change. Robert Jack (1845-1921) from Irvine, southwest of Glasgow, while doing fieldwork for the British Geological Survey near Loch Lomond close to Glasgow, described in 1874 evidence for non-glacial conditions between tills and clearly recognised that climate could change from glacial to temperate and then glacial climate, before returning to

  1. Toward IVHM Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walsh, Kevin; Venti, Mike

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the prognostics of Integrated Vehicle Health Management. The contents include: 1) Aircraft Operations-Today's way of doing business; 2) Prognostics; 3) NASA's instrumentation data-system rack; 4) Data mining for IVHM; 5) NASA GRC's C-MAPSS generic engine model; and 6) Concluding thoughts.

  2. Prevalence and determinants of hepatitis C virus infection among female drug injecting sex workers in Glasgow

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Avril; Hutchinson, Sharon J; Gilchrist, Gail; Cameron, Sheila; Carr, Susan; Goldberg, David J

    2008-01-01

    Background Few studies of the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection have focussed on women who work as street sex workers to finance their drug use. Methods The investigators report the survey findings of such a population in Glasgow. All women attending the health and social care drop-in centre, situated in Glasgow's "Red Light Area", during a four-week period in 1999 were invited to participate in a survey involving the provision of a saliva sample for anonymous HCV testing and the self-completion of a questionnaire seeking demographic, sexual and injecting practice data. Results Of the 223 women who attended, 51% agreed to participate. Of the 98 women who provided a sufficient saliva sample, 64% (95% CI: 54%–74%) tested HCV antibody positive; 98% of those who tested positive had ever injected drugs. Adjusting for the 85% sensitivity of the saliva test, the HCV antibody prevalence among IDU sex workers sampled was 81%; a rate which is considerably higher than those recorded, contemporaneously, among Glasgow IDUs generally. Two factors were independently associated with HCV antibody positivity in saliva: ever shared needles and syringes (adjusted OR 5.7, 95% CI 2–16) and number of times imprisoned (adjusted OR 7.3, 95% CI 1.4–39, for more than five times compared to zero times). Conclusion Women who engage in street sex work to finance their drug habit are a particularly desperate, chaotic and vulnerable population. This study demonstrates that their HCV infection risk may be greater than that for other IDUs. Those responsible for designing interventions to prevent HCV infection among IDUs should consider the special needs of this group. PMID:18355407

  3. Vascular grading of angiogenesis: prognostic significance in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, S; Grabau, D A; Sørensen, F B; Bak, M; Vach, W; Rose, C

    2000-01-01

    The study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of angiogenesis by vascular grading of primary breast tumours, and to evaluate the prognostic impact of adding the vascular grade to the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). The investigation included 836 patients. The median follow-up time was 11 years and 4 months. The microvessels were immunohistochemically stained by antibodies against CD34. Angiogenesis was graded semiquantitatively by subjective scoring into three groups according to the expected number of microvessels in the most vascular tumour area. The vascular grading between observers was moderately reproduced (κ = 0.59). Vascular grade was significantly associated with axillary node involvement, tumour size, malignancy grade, oestrogen receptor status and histological type. In univariate analyses vascular grade significantly predicted recurrence free survival and overall survival for all patients (P< 0.0001), node-negative patients (P< 0.0001) and node-positive patients (P< 0.0001). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that vascular grading contributed with independent prognostic value in all patients (P< 0.0001). A prognostic index including the vascular grade had clinical impact for 24% of the patients, who had a shift in prognostic group, as compared to NPI, and implied a better prognostic dissemination. We concluded that the angiogenesis determined by vascular grading has independent prognostic value of clinical relevance for patients with breast cancer. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10646886

  4. Rickets and Osteomalacia in the Glasgow Pakistani Community, 1961-71

    PubMed Central

    Ford, J. A.; Colhoun, E. M.; McIntosh, W. B.; Dunnigan, M. G.

    1972-01-01

    The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was reassessed in April and May 1971, 10 years after the discovery of widespread late rickets and osteomalacia in the Glasgow Pakistani community. Evidence of vitamin D deficiency was found in 28 out of 115 adults and children examined (24%). Children at the age of puberty were most severely affected by rickets, whereas most infants and younger children in the survey were protected by vitamin D supplements. Mild biochemical osteomalacia was common in Pakistani women. A total of 21 Pakistani and Indian children with rickets were admitted to Glasgow hospitals during 1968-70. These comprised 10 children with infantile rickets and 11 with late rickets. Four of the latter group required osteotomy for severe rachitic deformity. Late rickets and osteomalacia in Pakistani and Indian immigrants are not primarily due to nutritional deficiency of vitamin D, though the high phytate content of their diet may be of aetiological importance. A combination of environmental, social, and endogenous factors, the relative importance of which is not at present clear, may also be involved. Advice on the prophylaxis of vitamin D deficiency should be given to all Pakistani and Indian communities in the United Kingdom. PMID:5031709

  5. The importance of empathy in the enablement of patients attending the Glasgow Homoeopathic Hospital.

    PubMed Central

    Mercer, Stewart W; Reilly, David; Watt, Graham C M

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patient enablement in general practice is known to be limited by consultation length. However, the processes within the consultation that lead to enablement are not well understood. AIMS: To investigate patient enablement in a setting where time is less of a constraint than in primary care, in order to determine the importance of other factors in enablement. DESIGN OF STUDY: Exploratory questionnaire-based study. SETTING: Two hundred consecutive outpatients attending four doctors at the Glasgow Homoeopathic Hospital, an NHS-funded integrated complementary and orthodox medicine unit. METHOD: Information was collected on enablement and a range of other factors, including the patients expectations, their perception of the doctors empathy, and the doctors own confidence in the doctor-patient relationship. RESULTS: Although there were many factors that correlated with enablement, multi-regression analysis showed patients expectation, doctor's empathy (as perceived by the patient), and doctor's own confidence in the therapeutic relationship to be the three key factors. Together they accounted for 41% of the variation in enablement, with empathy being the single most important factor (66% of the explained variation in enablement). CONCLUSION: Patient enablement at the Glasgow Homoeopathic Hospital is mainly related to the patients perception of the doctor's empathy. PMID:12434958

  6. Dr. Auzoux's botanical teaching models and medical education at the universities of Glasgow and Aberdeen.

    PubMed

    Olszewski, Margaret Maria

    2011-09-01

    In the 1860s, Dr. Louis Thomas Jérôme Auzoux introduced a set of papier-mâché teaching models intended for use in the botanical classroom. These botanical models quickly made their way into the educational curricula of institutions around the world. Within these institutions, Auzoux's models were principally used to fulfil educational goals, but their incorporation into diverse curricula also suggests they were used to implement agendas beyond botanical instruction. This essay examines the various uses and meanings of Dr. Auzoux's botanical teaching models at the universities of Glasgow and Aberdeen in the nineteenth century. The two main conclusions of this analysis are: (1) investing in prestigious scientific collections was a way for these universities to attract fee-paying students so that better medical accommodation could be provided and (2) models were used to transmit different kinds of botanical knowledge at both universities. The style of botany at the University of Glasgow was offensive and the department there actively embraced and incorporated ideas of the emerging new botany. At Aberdeen, the style of botany was defensive and there was some hesitancy when confronting new botanical ideas. PMID:21802633

  7. Assessment of daytime outdoor comfort levels in and outside the urban area of Glasgow, UK.

    PubMed

    Krüger, Eduardo; Drach, Patricia; Emmanuel, Rohinton; Corbella, Oscar

    2013-07-01

    To understand thermal preferences and to define a preliminary outdoor comfort range for the local population of Glasgow, UK, an extensive series of measurements and surveys was carried out during 19 monitoring campaigns from winter through summer 2011 at six different monitoring points in pedestrian areas of downtown Glasgow. For data collection, a Davis Vantage Pro2 weather station equipped with temperature and humidity sensors, cup anemometer with wind vane, silicon pyranometer and globe thermometer was employed. Predictions of the outdoor thermal index PET (physiologically equivalent temperature) correlated closely to the actual thermal votes of respondents. Using concurrent measurements from a second Davis Vantage Pro2 weather station placed in a rural setting approximately 15 km from the urban area, comparisons were drawn with regard to daytime thermal comfort levels and urban-rural temperature differences (∆T(u-r)) for the various sites. The urban sites exhibited a consistent lower level of thermal discomfort during daytime. No discernible effect of urban form attributes in terms of the sky-view factor were observed on ∆Tu-r or on the relative difference of the adjusted predicted percentage of dissatisfied (PPD*). PMID:22886367

  8. Female streetworker--prostitutes in Glasgow: a descriptive study of their lifestyle.

    PubMed

    Green, S T; Goldberg, D J; Christie, P R; Frischer, M; Thomson, A; Carr, S V; Taylor, A

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this study is to describe the lifestyle of a group of female prostitutes. The collection of information was achieved by: (i) using a self administered questionnaire; and (ii) conducting conversational type interviews. Of 85 women attending a health care drop-in centre for female street prostitutes in Glasgow, 63 completed the questionnaire and 72 participated in conversational interviews. For 63 women the mean age of commencement of prostitution was 21 years. Fifty-one (81%) were injecting drug users, their most commonly used drugs being heroin and temazepam. They worked a mean of 5.5 evenings per week and provided sexual services to a mean of 6.4 clients per working day. Less than half of these services were estimated to be vaginal intercourse. While 59/60 women indicated that they always used condoms during vaginal intercourse, this only applied to commercial sex; only 8/47 (17%) always used condoms with their regular sexual partners. Unconventional sexual services, e.g. voyeurism and physical abuse, were commonly provided and clients were often violent. A typical female streetworking-prostitute in Glasgow was aged 25, unemployed, an injecting drug user and had commenced prostitution 4 years before. Her knowledge of HIV/AIDS was good and for vaginal intercourse she almost always used condoms with clients, though probably not with her regular partner. Her main concern was likely to be violence from clients. PMID:8218467

  9. A novel score predicting PEG placement in ICH – the GRAVo score

    PubMed Central

    Faigle, Roland; Marsh, Elisabeth B.; Llinas, Rafael H.; Urrutia, Victor C.; Gottesman, Rebecca F.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Dysphagia after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) contributes significantly to morbidity, often necessitating placement of a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) tube. This study describes a novel risk prediction score for PEG placement after ICH. Methods We retrospectively analyzed data from 234 ICH patients presenting during a 4-year period. One hundred and eighty nine patients met inclusion criteria. The sample was randomly divided into a development and a validation cohort. Logistic regression was used to develop a risk score by weighting predictors of PEG placement based on strength of association. Results Age (OR 1.64 per 10 years increase in age, 95% CI 1.02–2.65), African American race (OR 3.26, 95% CI 0.96–11.05), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS; OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.62–1.03), and ICH volume (OR 1.38 per 10 cc increase in ICH volume) were independent predictors of PEG placement. The final model for score development achieved an AUC of 0.7911 (95% CI 0.6931–0.8892) in the validation group. The score was named the GRAVo score: GCS ≤12 (2 points), Race (1 point for African-American), Age >50 years (2 points), and ICH Volume >30 cc (1 point). A score >4 was associated with nearly 12 times higher odds of PEG placement compared to a score ≤4 (OR 11.81, 95% CI 5.04–27.66), predicting PEG placement with 46.55% sensitivity and 93.13% specificity. Conclusion The GRAVo score, combining information about GCS, race, age, and ICH volume, may be a useful predictor of PEG placement in ICH patients. PMID:25468881

  10. Prognostic Factors in Cholinesterase Inhibitor Poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Sun, In O; Yoon, Hyun Ju; Lee, Kwang Young

    2015-01-01

    Background Organophosphates and carbamates are insecticides that are associated with high human mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors affecting survival in patients with cholinesterase inhibitor (CI) poisoning. Material/Methods This study included 92 patients with CI poisoning in the period from January 2005 to August 2013. We divided these patients into 2 groups (survivors vs. non-survivors), compared their clinical characteristics, and analyzed the predictors of survival. Results The mean age of the included patients was 56 years (range, 16–88). The patients included 57 (62%) men and 35 (38%) women. When we compared clinical characteristics between the survivor group (n=81, 88%) and non-survivor group (n=11, 12%), there were no differences in renal function, pancreatic enzymes, or serum cholinesterase level, except for serum bicarbonate level and APACHE II score. The serum bicarbonate level was lower in non-survivors than in survivors (12.45±2.84 vs. 18.36±4.73, P<0.01). The serum APACHE II score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (24.36±5.22 vs. 12.07±6.67, P<0.01). The development of pneumonia during hospitalization was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (n=9, 82% vs. n=31, 38%, P<0.01). In multiple logistic regression analysis, serum bicarbonate concentration, APACHE II score, and pneumonia during hospitalization were the important prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Conclusions Serum bicarbonate and APACHE II score are useful prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Furthermore, pneumonia during hospitalization was also important in predicting prognosis in patients with CI poisoning. Therefore, prevention and active treatment of pneumonia is important in the management of patients with CI poisoning. PMID:26411989

  11. The AFC Score: Validation of a 4-Item Predicting Score of Postoperative Mortality After Colorectal Resection for Cancer or Diverticulitis

    PubMed Central

    Alves, Arnaud; Panis, Yves; Mantion, Georges; Slim, Karem; Kwiatkowski, Fabrice; Vicaut, Eric

    2007-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the present prospective study was to validate externally a 4-item predictive score of mortality after colorectal surgery (the AFC score) by testing its generalizability on a new population. Summary Background Data: We have recently reported, in a French prospective multicenter study, that age older than 70 years, neurologic comorbidity, underweight (body weight loss >10% in <6 months), and emergency surgery significantly increased postoperative mortality after resection for cancer or diverticulitis. Patients and Methods: From June to September 2004, 1049 consecutive patients (548 men and 499 women) with a mean age of 67 ± 14 years, undergoing open or laparoscopic colorectal resection, were prospectively included. The AFC score was validated in this population. We assessed also the predictive value of other scores, such as the “Glasgow” score and the ASA score. To express and compare the predictive value of the different scores, a receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated. Results: Postoperative mortality rate was 4.6%. Variables already identified as predictors of mortality and used in the AFC score were also found to be associated with a high odds ratio in this study: emergency surgery, body weight loss >10%, neurologic comorbidity, and age older than 70 years in a multivariate logistic model. The validity of the AFC score in this population was found very high based both on the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P = 0.37) and on the area under the ROC curve (0.89). We also found that discriminatory capacity was higher than other currently used risk scoring systems such as the Glasgow or ASA score. Conclusion: The present prospective study validated the AFC score as a pertinent predictive score of postoperative mortality after colorectal surgery. Because it is based on only 4 risk factors, the AFC score can be used in daily practice. PMID:17592296

  12. Audit of the Forensic Psychiatry Liaison Service to Glasgow Sheriff Court 1994 to 1998.

    PubMed

    White, T; Ramsay, L; Morrison, R

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks to describe the demographic, offence, and diagnostic details of subjects referred by the Procurator Fiscal at Glasgow Sheriff Court to the Forensic Psychiatry Liaison between 1994 and 1997. The initial outcome of the assessment and an assessment of medical time involved is presented. This study is a retrospective review of audit forms completed between 1993 and 1994 and once more in 1997. The referral criteria, age structure and offence pattern was broadly similar to that reported in court diversion schemes in England. A primary diagnosis of alcohol and/or drug dependence was seen in one third of referrals during both years of the audit. A marked increase (250%) in referrals between 1994 and 1997 resulted in a marked reduction of those admitted to hospital, and an increase in the percentage who had 'no psychiatric diagnosis'. The need for ongoing liaison between the Procurators Fiscal and the Forensic Psychiatrists involved would appear important in modifying referral criteria. PMID:11848141

  13. Highlights from the Ninth European Breast Cancer Conference, Glasgow, 19–21 March 2014

    PubMed Central

    Munzone, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    The Ninth European Breast Cancer Conference (EBCC-9), one of the largest breast cancer conferences in the world, was held in Glasgow in March 2014, and brought together the voices of doctors, researchers, nurses, and patients. All the major breast cancer advocacy groups and institutions were united in one forum (Europa Donna, the EORTC Breast Cancer group, and EUSOMA). The Scientific Programme for EBCC-9 highlighted a holistic picture of breast cancer, including research, prevention, treatment, advocacy, and care. Participants were able to discover the most up-to-date developments and findings within the field for implementation into daily practice. Improvements in treatment, as well as enhanced access to care, underlie the sustained decreases in breast cancer mortality seen in 30 European countries from 1989 to 2010. PMID:24834121

  14. Do obesity-promoting food environments cluster around socially disadvantaged schools in Glasgow, Scotland?

    PubMed Central

    Ellaway, Anne; Macdonald, Laura; Lamb, Karen; Thornton, Lukar; Day, Peter; Pearce, Jamie

    2012-01-01

    Increase in the consumption of food and drinks outside the home by adolescents and young people and associations with rising levels of obesity is a significant concern worldwide and it has been suggested that the food environment around schools may be a contributory factor. As few studies have explored this issue in a UK setting, we examined whether different types of food outlets are clustered around public secondary schools in Glasgow, and whether this pattern differed by social disadvantage. We found evidence of clustering of food outlets around schools but a more complex picture in relation to deprivation was observed. Across all schools there were numerous opportunities for pupils to purchase energy dense foods locally and the implications for policy are discussed. PMID:22819370

  15. Alternative manifestations of actor responses to urban flooding: case studies from Bradford and Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Cashman, A C

    2009-01-01

    Flooding processes are complex and can occur throughout urban areas sometimes with devastating consequences. Traditionally flood risks have been managed through a combination of structural defence measures, warnings and emergency measures. More recently they have included development controls and land zoning policies. When such measures fail, individuals, authorities and the economy have to cope with the consequences. There is a growing realization that the resilience of individuals and institutions to floods and the risks from flooding need to be addressed. In the past few years there has been what some have referred to as a paradigm shift in the way responses to flooding are being conceptualized and the way this affects actors and actions. Based on fieldwork including interviews this paper presents two examples of actor and institutional responses to flooding events from the cities of Bradford and Glasgow in the United Kingdom. PMID:19587405

  16. Diets for disease? Intraurban variation in reported food consumption in Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Forsyth, A; Macintyre, S; Anderson, A

    1994-06-01

    A recent official report on the Scottish Diet reviews evidence for poor health and poor diets among the Scots, and makes extensive and specific recommendations about dietary change. This paper examines the extent to which reported consumption of fifteen of the food groups discussed in that report vary among four neighbourhoods in Glasgow City. Some foods appear to be typical of a wider Glaswegian (or Scottish) diet and show little variation among neighbourhoods (e.g. semi-skimmed milk, white fish, confectionery, cakes and pastries, savoury snacks). Other foods however show marked differences between neighbourhoods after controlling for sex, age and social class; these include fruit, vegetables, meat (particularly processed meat products), bread, spreading fats, sugar, natural fruit juice and alcohol. This suggests that such intraurban variations in food consumption cannot be explained simply by socio-demographic or socio-economic factors in individuals and that cultural and supply factors also need to be taken into account. PMID:7979343

  17. Hegel in Glasgow: Idealists and the Emergence of Adult Education in the West of Scotland, 1866-1927

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamilton, Robert; Turner, Robert

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers how Hegel's philosophical idealism influenced the thinking and practical activities of four successive holders of the Chair of Moral Philosophy in the University of Glasgow between 1866 and 1927. It argues that their activities were shaped by Hegelian concepts of citizenship, which engendered a commitment to encouraging the…

  18. Case Study: A Distance Education Contribution to a Social Strategy To Combat Poverty: Open University Community Education Courses in Glasgow.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farnes, N. C.

    This project located in Glasgow, Scotland, is concerned with the use of distance teaching for a non-formal community education program that is a component of a social change strategy to combat poverty. The study shows that the use of distance learning courses in non-formal community education is successful in attracting, at a reasonable cost per…

  19. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  20. Prognostic Indexes for Brain Metastases: Which Is the Most Powerful?

    SciTech Connect

    Arruda Viani, Gustavo; Bernardes da Silva, Lucas Godoi; Stefano, Eduardo Jose

    2012-07-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to compare the prognostic indexes (PIs) of patients with brain metastases (BMs) treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) using an artificial neural network. This analysis is important, because it evaluates the prognostic power of each PI to guide clinical decision-making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A retrospective prognostic study was conducted of 412 patients with BMs who underwent WBRT between April 1998 and March 2010. The eligibility criteria for patients included having undergone WBRT or WBRT plus neurosurgery. The data were analyzed using the artificial neural network. The input neural data consisted of all prognostic factors included in the 5 PIs (recursive partitioning analysis, graded prognostic assessment [GPA], basic score for BMs, Rotterdam score, and Germany score). The data set was randomly divided into 300 training and 112 testing examples for survival prediction. All 5 PIs were compared using our database of 412 patients with BMs. The sensibility of the 5 indexes to predict survival according to their input variables was determined statistically using receiver operating characteristic curves. The importance of each variable from each PI was subsequently evaluated. Results: The overall 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rate was 22%, 10.2%, and 5.1%, respectively. All classes of PIs were significantly associated with survival (recursive partitioning analysis, P < .0001; GPA, P < .0001; basic score for BMs, P = .002; Rotterdam score, P = .001; and Germany score, P < .0001). Comparing the areas under the curves, the GPA was statistically most sensitive in predicting survival (GPA, 86%; recursive partitioning analysis, 81%; basic score for BMs, 79%; Rotterdam, 73%; and Germany score, 77%; P < .001). Among the variables included in each PI, the performance status and presence of extracranial metastases were the most important factors. Conclusion: A variety of prognostic models describe the

  1. Out-of-home food outlets and area deprivation: case study in Glasgow, UK

    PubMed Central

    Macintyre, Sally; McKay, Laura; Cummins, Steven; Burns, Cate

    2005-01-01

    Background There is a popular belief that out-of-home eating outlets, which typically serve energy dense food, may be more commonly found in more deprived areas and that this may contribute to higher rates of obesity and related diseases in such areas. Methods We obtained a list of all 1301 out-of-home eating outlets in Glasgow, UK, in 2003 and mapped these at unit postcode level. We categorised them into quintiles of area deprivation using the 2004 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and computed mean density of types of outlet (restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafes and takeaways), and all types combined, per 1000 population. We also estimated odds ratios for the presence of any outlets in small areas within the quintiles. Results The density of outlets, and the likelihood of having any outlets, was highest in the second most affluent quintile (Q2) and lowest in the second most deprived quintile (Q4). Mean outlets per 1,000 were 4.02 in Q2, 1.20 in Q4 and 2.03 in Q5. With Q2 as the reference, Odds Ratios for having any outlets were 0.52 (CI 0.32–0.84) in Q1, 0.50 (CI 0.31 – 0.80) in Q4 and 0.61 (CI 0.38 – 0.98) in Q5. Outlets were located in the City Centre, West End, and along arterial roads. Conclusion In Glasgow those living in poorer areas are not more likely to be exposed to out-of-home eating outlets in their neighbourhoods. Health improvement policies need to be based on empirical evidence about the location of fast food outlets in specific national and local contexts, rather than on popular 'factoids'. PMID:16248898

  2. Asbestos and lung cancer in Glasgow and the west of Scotland.

    PubMed Central

    De Vos Irvine, H; Lamont, D W; Hole, D J; Gillis, C R

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To quantify the relation between lung cancer and exposure to asbestos in men in west Scotland and to estimate the proportion of lung cancer which may be attributed to exposure to asbestos. DESIGN--An ecological correlation study of the incidence of lung cancer in men and past asbestos exposure. The unit of analysis was the postcode sector. Correction was made for past cigarette smoking, air pollution, and deprivation. SETTING--The region covered by the west of Scotland cancer registry, containing 2.72 million people and including Glasgow and the lower reaches of the River Clyde, where shipbuilding was once a major industry. SUBJECTS--All men diagnosed with lung cancer between 1975 and 1984 whose residence at the time of registration was within the west of Scotland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--The population attributable risk for asbestos related lung cancer. RESULTS--An estimated 5.7% (95% confidence interval 2.3 to 9.1%) of all lung cancers in men registered in the west of Scotland during the period 1975-84 were asbestos related, amounting to 1081 cases. CONCLUSIONS--A considerable proportion of cases of lung cancer in men in Glasgow and the west of Scotland from 1975 to 1984 were asbestos related. Most of these may not have been considered for compensation by the Department of Social Security. Given the very small annual number of recorded cases of asbestosis this condition is probably not a prerequisite for the development of asbestos related lung cancer. A heightened awareness of the increasing incidence of asbestos related neoplasms and their more thorough investigation are recommended. PMID:8518676

  3. Comparison of AIMS65 Score and Other Scoring Systems for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Koreans with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

    PubMed Central

    Park, Sung Min; Yeum, Seok Cheon; Kim, Byung-Wook; Kim, Joon Sung; Kim, Ji Hee; Sim, Eun Hui; Ji, Jeong-Seon; Choi, Hwang

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims The AIMS65 score has not been sufficiently validated in Korea. The objective of this study was to compare the AIMS65 and other scoring systems for the prediction of various clinical outcomes in Korean patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). Methods The AIMS65 score, clinical and full Rockall scores (cRS and fRS) and Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) score were calculated in patients with NVUGIB in a single center retrospectively. The performance of these scores for predicting mortality, rebleeding, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Results Of the 523 patients, 3.4% died within 30 days, 2.5% experienced rebleeding, 40.0% required endoscopic intervention, and 75.7% needed transfusion. The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and for transfusion. The fRS was superior to the AIMS65, GBS, and cRS for predicting endoscopic intervention and the GBS was superior to the AIMS65, fRS, and cRS for predicting the transfusion requirement. Conclusions The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention in Korean patients with acute NVUGIB. However, it was inferior to the GBS and fRS for predicting the transfusion requirement and endoscopic intervention, respectively. PMID:27377742

  4. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores: Who, when and why?

    PubMed Central

    Monteiro, Sara; Gonçalves, Tiago Cúrdia; Magalhães, Joana; Cotter, José

    2016-01-01

    Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the complications, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact. PMID:26909231

  5. Waterlow score as a surrogate marker for predicting adverse outcome in acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Gillick, K; Elbeltagi, H; Bhattacharya, S

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Introduced originally to stratify risk for developing decubitus ulcers, the Waterlow scoring system is recorded routinely for surgical admissions. It is a composite score, reflecting patients' general condition and co-morbidities. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the Waterlow score can be used as an independent surrogate marker to predict severity and adverse outcome in acute pancreatitis. Methods In this retrospective analysis, a consecutive cohort was studied of 250 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, all of whom had their Waterlow score calculated on admission. Primary outcome measures were length of hospital stay and mortality. Secondary outcome measures included rate of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and development of complications such as peripancreatic free fluid, pancreatic necrosis and pseudocyst formation. Correlation of the Waterlow score with some known markers of disease severity and outcomes was also analysed. Results The Waterlow score correlated strongly with the most commonly used marker of disease severity, the Glasgow score (analysis of variance, p=0.0012). Inpatient mortality, rate of ICU admission and length of hospital stay increased with a higher Waterlow score (Mann-Whitney U test, p=0.0007, p=0.049 and p=0.0002 respectively). There was, however, no significant association between the Waterlow score and the incidence of three known complications of pancreatitis: presence of peripancreatic fluid, pancreatic pseudocyst formation and pancreatic necrosis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated good predictive power of the Waterlow score for mortality (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.73), ICU admission (AUC: 0.65) and length of stay >7 days (AUC: 0.64). This is comparable with the predictive power of the Glasgow score and C-reactive protein. Conclusions The Waterlow score for patients admitted with acute pancreatitis could provide a useful tool in prospective assessment of disease

  6. Prehospital heart rate and blood pressure increase the positive predictive value of the Glasgow Coma Scale for high-mortality traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Reisner, Andrew; Chen, Xiaoxiao; Kumar, Kamal; Reifman, Jaques

    2014-05-15

    We hypothesized that vital signs could be used to improve the association between a trauma patient's prehospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score and his or her clinical condition. Previously, abnormally low and high blood pressures have both been associated with higher mortality for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). We undertook a retrospective analysis of 1384 adult prehospital trauma patients. Vital-sign data were electronically archived and analyzed. We examined the relative risk of severe head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 5-6 as a function of the GCS, systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), and respiratory rate (RR). We created multi-variate logistic regression models and, using DeLong's test, compared their area under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC AUCs) for three outcomes: head AIS 5-6, all-cause mortality, and either head AIS 5-6 or neurosurgical procedure. We found significant bimodal relationships between head AIS 5-6 versus SBP and HR, but not RR. When the GCS was <15, ROC AUCs were significantly higher for a multi-variate regression model (GCS, SBP, and HR) versus GCS alone. In particular, patients with abnormalities in all parameters (GCS, SBP, and HR) were significantly more likely to have high-mortality TBI versus those with abnormalities in GCS alone. This could be useful for mobilizing resources (e.g., neurosurgeons and operating rooms at the receiving hospital) and might enable new prehospital management protocols where therapies are selected based on TBI mortality risk. PMID:24372334

  7. Severe acute pancreatitis: Pathogenetic aspects and prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Mofleh, Ibrahim A Al

    2008-01-01

    Approximately 20% of patients with acute pancreatitis develop a severe disease associated with complications and high risk of mortality. The purpose of this study is to review pathogenesis and prognostic factors of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). An extensive medline search was undertaken with focusing on pathogenesis, complications and prognostic evaluation of SAP. Cytokines and other inflammatory markers play a major role in the pathogenesis and course of SAP and can be used as prognostic markers in its early phase. Other markers such as simple prognostic scores have been found to be as effective as multifactorial scoring systems (MFSS) at 48 h with the advantage of simplicity, efficacy, low cost, accuracy and early prediction of SAP. Recently, several laboratory markers including hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and serum amyloid A (SAA) have been used as early predictors of severity within the first 24 h. The last few years have witnessed a tremendous progress in understanding the pathogenesis and predicting the outcome of SAP. In this review we classified the prognostic markers into predictors of severity, pancreatic necrosis (PN), infected PN (IPN) and mortality. PMID:18205255

  8. New prognostic model for extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type.

    PubMed

    Cai, Qingqing; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Guanrong; Huang, Huiqiang; Huang, Hui; Lin, Tongyu; Jiang, Wenqi; Xia, Zhongjun; Young, Ken H

    2014-09-01

    Extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTL) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in affected patients. We designed a new prognostic model specifically for ENKTL to identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive therapy. We retrospectively reviewed 158 patients who were newly diagnosed with ENKTL. The estimated 5-year overall survival rate was 39.4 %. Independent prognostic factors included total protein (TP) <60 g/L, fasting blood glucose (FBG) >100 mg/dL, and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) score ≥2. We constructed a new prognostic model by combining these prognostic factors: group 1 (64 cases (41.0 %)), no adverse factors; group 2 (58 cases (37.2 %)), one adverse factor; and group 3 (34 cases (21.8 %)), two or three adverse factors. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of these groups were 66.7, 23.0, and 5.9 %, respectively (p < 0.001). Our new prognostic model had a better prognostic value than did the KPI model alone (p < 0.001). Our proposed prognostic model for ENKTL, including the newly identified prognostic indicators, TP and FBG, demonstrated a balanced distribution of patients into different risk groups with better prognostic discrimination compared with the KPI model alone. PMID:24782120

  9. Estimating the variability in the risk of infection for hepatitis C in the Glasgow injecting drug user population.

    PubMed

    Sutton, A J; McDonald, S A; Palmateer, N; Taylor, A; Hutchinson, S J

    2012-12-01

    Glasgow (Scotland's largest city) has a high prevalence of injecting drug use and has one of the highest prevalences of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in injecting drug users (IDUs) in Western Europe. HCV prevalence data from surveys of Glasgow's IDUs from 1990 to 2007 were utilized and a model was applied that described the prevalence of HCV as a function of the rate (force) of infection. Force-of-infection estimates for HCV that may vary over time and injecting career length over a range of variables were investigated. New initiates to injecting were found to be at increased risk of HCV infection, with being recruited from a street location and reporting injecting in prison leading to a significant increase in the risk of infection in new initiates. These results indicate areas of importance for the planning of public health measures that target the IDU population. PMID:22459739

  10. Item-Level Psychometrics of the Glasgow Outcome Scale: Extended Structured Interviews.

    PubMed

    Hong, Ickpyo; Li, Chih-Ying; Velozo, Craig A

    2016-04-01

    The Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) structured interview captures critical components of activities and participation, including home, shopping, work, leisure, and family/friend relationships. Eighty-nine community dwelling adults with mild-moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI) were recruited (average = 2.7 year post injury). Nine items of the 19 items were used for the psychometrics analysis purpose. Factor analysis and item-level psychometrics were investigated using the Rasch partial-credit model. Although the principal components analysis of residuals suggests that a single measurement factor dominates the measure, the instrument did not meet the factor analysis criteria. Five items met the rating scale criteria. Eight items fit the Rasch model. The instrument demonstrated low person reliability (0.63), low person strata (2.07), and a slight ceiling effect. The GOSE demonstrated limitations in precisely measuring activities/participation for individuals after TBI. Future studies should examine the impact of the low precision of the GOSE on effect size. PMID:27504879

  11. A health impact assessment of the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow

    PubMed Central

    McCartney, G.; Palmer, S.; Winterbottom, J.; Jones, R.; Kendall, R.; Booker, D.

    2010-01-01

    Summary Objective To influence the planning of the 2014 Commonwealth Games such that the positive impacts are maximized and the negative impacts are mitigated. Study design Participatory health impact assessment (HIA). Methods A participatory HIA was performed using standard World Health Organization methods. A scoping event was held to involve decision makers in the process and to identify the key areas for consideration. A large community engagement exercise and a systematic review were conducted as part of the evidence-gathering phase. The results of the HIA were reported to the key decision makers involved in the Glasgow City Council legacy strategy. Results The likely net health impact of hosting the Commonwealth Games was uncertain. It was suggested that the main mechanisms through which impacts were likely to be felt were: the economy; civic pride; engagement in decision making; the provision of new infrastructure; and participation in cultural events. A series of recommendations was produced in order to maximize positive health benefits and mitigate negative impacts. Conclusions HIA is a useful tool for engaging communities and decision makers in the public health agenda. HIAs of major multi-sport events are limited by a lack of quality evidence and the inability to predict impacts reliably. PMID:20630546

  12. Meteorological conditions and incidence of Legionnaires' disease in Glasgow, Scotland: application of statistical modelling.

    PubMed

    Dunn, C E; Rowlingson, B; Bhopal, R S; Diggle, P

    2013-04-01

    This study investigated the relationships between Legionnaires' disease (LD) incidence and weather in Glasgow, UK, by using advanced statistical methods. Using daily meteorological data and 78 LD cases with known exact date of onset, we fitted a series of Poisson log-linear regression models with explanatory variables for air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and year, and sine-cosine terms for within-year seasonal variation. Our initial model showed an association between LD incidence and 2-day lagged humidity (positive, P = 0·0236) and wind speed (negative, P = 0·033). However, after adjusting for year-by-year and seasonal variation in cases there were no significant associations with weather. We also used normal linear models to assess the importance of short-term, unseasonable weather values. The most significant association was between LD incidence and air temperature residual lagged by 1 day prior to onset (P = 0·0014). The contextual role of unseasonably high air temperatures is worthy of further investigation. Our methods and results have further advanced understanding of the role which weather plays in risk of LD infection. PMID:22687530

  13. Development and validation of the Essen Intracerebral Haemorrhage Score

    PubMed Central

    Weimar, C; Benemann, J; Diener, H‐C

    2006-01-01

    Background Spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) accounts for the highest in‐hospital mortality of all stroke types. Nevertheless, outcome is favourable in about 30% of patients. Only one model for the prediction of favourable outcome has been validated so far. Objective To describe the development and validation of the Essen ICH score. Methods Inception cohorts were assessed on the National Institutes of Health stroke scale (NIH‐SS) on admission and after follow up of 100 days. On the basis of previously validated clinical variables, a simple clinical score was developed to predict mortality and complete recovery (Barthel index after 100 days ⩾95) in 340 patients with acute ICH. Subscores for age (<60 = 0; 60–69 = 1; 70–79 = 2; ⩾80 = 3), NIH‐SS level of consciousness (alert = 0; drowsy = 1; stuporose = 2; comatose = 3), and NIH‐SS total score (0–5 = 0; 6–10 = 1; 11–15 = 2; 16–20 = 3; >20 or coma = 4) were combined into a prognostic scale with <3 predicting complete recovery and >7 predicting death. The score was subsequently validated in an external cohort of 371 patients. Results The Essen ICH score showed a high prognostic accuracy for complete recovery and death in both the development and validation cohort. For prediction of complete recovery on the Barthel index after 100 days, the Essen ICH score was superior to the physicians' prognosis and to two previous prognostic scores developed for a slightly modified outcome. Conclusions The Essen ICH score provides an easy to use scale for outcome prediction following ICH. Its high positive predictive values for adverse outcomes and easy applicability render it useful for individual prognostic indications or the design of clinical studies. In contrast, physicians tended to predict outcome too pessimistically. PMID:16354736

  14. In early returns scoring scores big.

    PubMed

    Butman, Samuel M

    2016-07-01

    A scoring or cutting balloon is always useful in preventing slippage during therapy of in-stent restenosis. A drug-coated scoring balloon for in-stent restenosis may be an alternative to a drug-coated balloon Definitive comparison trials are needed and likely to help define their exact role in patients with in-stent restenosis. PMID:27400636

  15. Effects of Urban Morphology on Intra-Urban Temperature Differences: Two Squares in Glasgow City Centre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drach, P. R. C.; Emmanuel, R.

    2014-12-01

    The perspective of climate change increases the necessity of tackling the urban over heating effects, by developing strategies to mitigate/adapt to changes. Analysing the influence of urban form on intra-urban temperature dynamics could be a helpful way of reducing its negative consequences. Also, it would help untangle the urban effect from the effect caused by atmospheric conditions. The present paper presents the effect of atmospheric conditions as exemplified by atmospheric stability (modified Pasquill-Gifford-Turner classification system) and urban morphology as measured by the Sky View Factor (SVF) on intra-urban variations in air temperature in a cold climate city, in and around the mature urban area of Glasgow, UK (55° 51' 57.294"N, 4° 15' 0.2628"W). The aim is to highlight their combined importance and to make preliminary investigations on the local warming effect of urban morphology under specific atmospheric stability classes. The present work indicates that the maximum intra-urban temperature differences (i.e. temperature difference between the coolest and the warmest spots in a given urban region) is strongly correlated with atmospheric stability. The spatial patterns in local temperature variations consistently show that water bodies and urban parks have lower temperature variations. Thus, greenery and urban materials could play an important role in influencing the local climate in cold cities. The knowledge of urban morphology's influence on local temperature variations could be an important tool for devising appropriate planning/design strategies to face urban overheating in the coming years as the background climate continues to warm.

  16. Prognostic factors in early-stage leiomyosarcoma of the uterus.

    PubMed

    Pelmus, Manuela; Penault-Llorca, Frédérique; Guillou, Louis; Collin, Françoise; Bertrand, Gérard; Trassard, Martine; Leroux, Agnès; Floquet, Anne; Stoeckle, Eberhard; Thomas, Laurence; MacGrogan, Gaëtan

    2009-04-01

    Uterine leiomyosarcomas (LMSs) are rare cancers representing less than 1% of all uterine malignancies. Clinical International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage is the most important prognostic factor. Other significant prognostic factors, especially for early stages, are difficult to establish because most of the published studies have included localized and extra-pelvian sarcomas. The aim of our study was to search for significant prognostic factors in clinical stage I and II uterine LMS. The pathologic features of 108 uterine LMS including 72 stage I and II lesions were reviewed using standardized criteria. The prognostic significance of different pathologic features was assessed. The median follow-up in the whole group was 64 months (range, 6-223 months). The 5-year overall survival (OS) and metastasis-free interval and local relapse-free interval rates in the whole group and early-stage group (FIGO stages I and II) were 40% and 57%, 42% and 50%, 56% and 62%, respectively. Clinical FIGO stage was the most important prognostic factor for OS in the whole group (P = 4 x 10). In the stage I and II group, macroscopic circumscription was the most significant factor predicting OS (P = 0.001). In the same group, mitotic score and vascular invasion were associated with metastasis-free interval (P = 0.03 and P = 0.04, respectively). Uterine LMSs diagnosed using standardized criteria have a poor prognosis, and clinical FIGO stage is an ominous prognostic factor. In early-stage LMS, pathologic features such as mitotic score, vascular invasion, and tumor circumscription significantly impact patient outcome. PMID:19407564

  17. A prognostic risk model for patients with triple negative breast cancer based on stromal natural killer cells, tumor-associated macrophages and growth-arrest specific protein 6.

    PubMed

    Tian, Wenjing; Wang, Le; Yuan, Lili; Duan, Wenming; Zhao, Wenhui; Wang, Shuhuai; Zhang, Qingyuan

    2016-07-01

    The aim of this study was to establish a prognostic risk model for patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). A total of 278 specimens of human TNBC tissues were investigated by immunohistochemistry for growth-arrest specific protein 6 expression, infiltrations of stromal natural killer cells and tumor-associated macrophages. According to their prognostic risk scores based on the model, patients were divided into three groups (score 0, 1-2, 3). Correlations of prognostic risk scores, clinicopathologic features and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. To study the clinical value of this stratification model in early disease recurrence or metastasis, 177 patients were screened out for further analysis. Based on disease free survival (DFS), 90 patients fell within the DFS ≤3 years group and 87 patients within the DFS ≥5 years group. We analyzed the differences in prognostic risk scores between the two groups. The prognostic risk scores were negatively related to tumor size, lymph node metastasis and P53 status (P < 0.001 for all). Patients with low prognostic risk scores had longer OS (P = 0.001). Using multivariate analysis, it was determined that TNM stage (HR = 0.432, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.281-0.665, P = 0.003), FOXP3 positive lymphocytes (HR = 1.712, 95% CI = 1.085-2.702, P = 0.021) and prognostic risk scores (HR = 1.340, 95% CI = 1.192-1.644, P = 0.005) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Compared with the DFS ≥5 years group, the DFS ≤3 years group patients had significantly higher prognostic risk scores (P < 0.001). In conclusion, the prognostic risk score of the model was a significant indicator of prognosis for patients with TNBC. PMID:27145494

  18. Proposal of a new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis of 403 patients

    PubMed Central

    Tateishi, R; Yoshida, H; Shiina, S; Imamura, H; Hasegawa, K; Teratani, T; Obi, S; Sato, S; Koike, Y; Fujishima, T; Makuuchi, M; Omata, M

    2005-01-01

    Background: The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is highly dependent on tumour extension and liver function. Recently, two new prognostic scoring systems—the CLIP score, developed by Italian investigators and the BCLC score, developed in Barcelona—have been widely used to assess prognosis in patients presenting with hepatocellular carcinoma. Each system has its own relative limitations. Aims: To create a new prognostic scoring system which is simple, easy to calculate, and suitable for estimating prognosis during radical treatment of early HCC. Methods: A total of 403 consecutive patients with HCC treated by percutaneous ablation at the Department of Gastroenterology, University of Tokyo Hospital, between 1990 and 1997 were used as the training sample to identify prognostic factors for our patients and used to develop the Tokyo score. As a testing sample, 203 independent patients who underwent hepatectomy at the Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery were studied. Prognostic factors were analysed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: The Tokyo score consists of four factors: serum albumin, bilirubin, and size and number of tumours. Five year survival was 78.7%, 62.1%, 40.0%, 27.7%, and 14.3% for Tokyo scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4–6, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the Tokyo score was internally validated by bootstrap methods. The Tokyo score, CLIP score, and BCLC staging were compared by Akaike information criterion and Harrell’s c index among training and testing samples. In the testing sample, the predictive ability of the Tokyo score was equal to CLIP and better than BCLC staging. Conclusions: The Tokyo score is a simple system which provides good prediction of prognosis for Japanese patients with HCC requiring radical therapy. PMID:15710994

  19. Proceedings of a symposium on the neurobiology of the basal ganglia. Glasgow, United Kingdom, July 1999.

    PubMed

    2000-05-01

    Glasgow University in July 1999 as part of the Summer Meeting of the Anatomical Society of Great Britain and Ireland. The invited speakers were chosen to be wide ranging and contributions encompassed evolution, circuitry and receptors of the basal ganglia, striatal remodelling after dopamine loss, striatal functioning in humans with Huntington's disease and in primate models after midbrain fetal transplants, and the genetics of basal ganglia disorders. Short presentations and posters of current results supplemented the main presentations and some are also included amongst these reviews. PMID:10960285

  20. A lead isotopic study of the human bioaccessibility of lead in urban soils from Glasgow, Scotland.

    PubMed

    Farmer, John G; Broadway, Andrew; Cave, Mark R; Wragg, Joanna; Fordyce, Fiona M; Graham, Margaret C; Ngwenya, Bryne T; Bewley, Richard J F

    2011-11-01

    The human bioaccessibility of lead (Pb) in Pb-contaminated soils from the Glasgow area was determined by the Unified Bioaccessibility Research Group of Europe (BARGE) Method (UBM), an in vitro physiologically based extraction scheme that mimics the chemical environment of the human gastrointestinal system and contains both stomach and intestine compartments. For 27 soils ranging in total Pb concentration from 126 to 2160 mg kg(-1) (median 539 mg kg(-1)), bioaccessibility as determined by the 'stomach' simulation (pH ~1.5) was 46-1580 mg kg(-1), equivalent to 23-77% (mean 52%) of soil total Pb concentration. The corresponding bioaccessibility data for the 'stomach+intestine' simulation (pH ~6.3) were 6-623 mg kg(-1) and 2-42% (mean 22%) of soil Pb concentration. The soil (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios ranged from 1.057 to 1.175. Three-isotope plots of (208)Pb/(206)Pb against (206)Pb/(207)Pb demonstrated that (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios were intermediate between values for source end-member extremes of imported Australian Pb ore (1.04)--used in the manufacture of alkyl Pb compounds (1.06-1.10) formerly added to petrol--and indigenous Pb ores/coal (1.17-1.19). The (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios of the UBM 'stomach' extracts were similar (<0.01 difference) to those of the soil for 26 of the 27 samples (r=0.993, p<0.001) and lower in 24 of them. A slight preference for lower (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratio was discernible in the UBM. However, the source of Pb appeared to be less important in determining the extent of UBM-bioaccessible Pb than the overall soil total Pb concentration and the soil phases with which the Pb was associated. The significant phases identified in a subset of samples were carbonates, manganese oxides, iron-aluminium oxyhydroxides and clays. PMID:21930292

  1. Neighbourhood demolition, relocation and health. A qualitative longitudinal study of housing-led urban regeneration in Glasgow, UK

    PubMed Central

    Egan, Matt; Lawson, Louise; Kearns, Ade; Conway, Ellie; Neary, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a qualitative longitudinal study to explore how adult residents of disadvantaged urban neighbourhoods (Glasgow, UK) experienced neighbourhood demolition and relocation. Data from 23 households was collected in 2011 and 2012. Some participants described moves to new or improved homes in different neighbourhoods as beneficial to their and their families’ wellbeing. Others suggested that longstanding illnesses and problems with the new home and/or neighbourhood led to more negative experiences. Individual-level contextual differences, home and neighbourhood-level factors and variations in intervention implementation influence the experiences of residents involved in relocation programmes. PMID:25814338

  2. Neighbourhood demolition, relocation and health. A qualitative longitudinal study of housing-led urban regeneration in Glasgow, UK.

    PubMed

    Egan, Matt; Lawson, Louise; Kearns, Ade; Conway, Ellie; Neary, Joanne

    2015-05-01

    We conducted a qualitative longitudinal study to explore how adult residents of disadvantaged urban neighbourhoods (Glasgow, UK) experienced neighbourhood demolition and relocation. Data from 23 households was collected in 2011 and 2012. Some participants described moves to new or improved homes in different neighbourhoods as beneficial to their and their families' wellbeing. Others suggested that longstanding illnesses and problems with the new home and/or neighbourhood led to more negative experiences. Individual-level contextual differences, home and neighbourhood-level factors and variations in intervention implementation influence the experiences of residents involved in relocation programmes. PMID:25814338

  3. The Apgar Score.

    PubMed

    2015-10-01

    The Apgar score provides an accepted and convenient method for reporting the status of the newborn infant immediately after birth and the response to resuscitation if needed. The Apgar score alone cannot be considered as evidence of, or a consequence of, asphyxia; does not predict individual neonatal mortality or neurologic outcome; and should not be used for that purpose. An Apgar score assigned during resuscitation is not equivalent to a score assigned to a spontaneously breathing infant. The American Academy of Pediatrics and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists encourage use of an expanded Apgar score reporting form that accounts for concurrent resuscitative interventions. PMID:26416932

  4. Risk of Ovarian Cancer Relapse Score

    PubMed Central

    Rizzuto, Ivana; Stavraka, Chara; Chatterjee, Jayanta; Borley, Jane; Hopkins, Thomas Glass; Gabra, Hani; Ghaem-Maghami, Sadaf; Huson, Les; Blagden, Sarah P.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to construct a prognostic index that predicts risk of relapse in women who have completed first-line treatment for ovarian cancer (OC). Methods A database of OC cases from 2000 to 2010 was interrogated for International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, grade and histological subtype of cancer, preoperative and posttreatment CA-125 level, presence or absence of residual disease after cytoreductive surgery and on postchemotherapy computed tomography scan, and time to progression and death. The strongest predictors of relapse were included into an algorithm, the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Relapse (ROVAR) score. Results Three hundred fifty-four cases of OC were analyzed to generate the ROVAR score. Factors selected were preoperative serum CA-125, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and grade of cancer, and presence of residual disease at posttreatment computed tomography scan. In the validation data set, the ROVAR score had a sensitivity and specificity of 94% and 61%, respectively. The concordance index for the validation data set was 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.96). The score allows patient stratification into low (<0.33), intermediate (0.34–0.67), and high (>0.67) probability of relapse. Conclusions The ROVAR score stratifies patients according to their risk of relapse following first-line treatment for OC. This can broadly facilitate the appropriate tailoring of posttreatment care and support. PMID:25647256

  5. Development and validation of a prognostic scale for use in patients with advanced cancer.

    PubMed

    Stone, P; Kelly, L; Head, R; White, S

    2008-09-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic indicator to help predict survival in advanced cancer patients more accurately. Data on 329 patients obtained from a multi-centre study in London were analysed. A multifactorial Cox regression model was applied and validated using bootstrapping techniques. Predictive scores were calculated and used to produce a new prognostic index. The value of the index in predicting 14-day survival was then assessed. Four variables were found to be associated with worse survival: primary lung cancer, secondary liver cancer, raised C-Reactive protein and poor performance status (ECOG 4). Survival curves showed that patients designated as 'high' risk by the resulting index had significantly shorter survival than those designated as 'low' risk. A high score on the newly derived prognostic index is associated with poorer survival, but its clinical utility is limited by the relatively low predictive probability of the score. PMID:18715969

  6. Unravelling the Glasgow effect: The relationship between accumulative bio- psychosocial stress, stress reactivity and Scotland's health problems.

    PubMed

    Cowley, Joe; Kiely, John; Collins, Dave

    2016-12-01

    To date, multiple hypotheses have been proposed for the Scottish effect and, more specifically, Glasgow's high mortality rate and the associated Glasgow effect. Previous authors have highlighted the improbability of a single factor as responsible for this effect with seventeen possible hypotheses presented. These have ranged from socio-economic factors, lifestyle and cultural factors such as sectarianism, and political and economic factors. Although these may all be contributory factors to this paradox, the underpinning reasons for the observed effect remain relatively unexplained. In this paper, we suggest that the compounding effect of a unique blend of accumulating life stressors may predispose Scots, and particularly socially-disadvantaged Glaswegians, to a wide-range of health disorders. In short, a confluence of social, environmental, attitudinal and cultural stressors perhaps combine to negatively influence biological health. Future directions should consider the stress remediating role of physical activity, and the problems presented by barriers to participation in physical activity and exercise during key transitional stages of life. PMID:27512652

  7. Multigene prognostic tests in breast cancer: past, present, future.

    PubMed

    Győrffy, Balázs; Hatzis, Christos; Sanft, Tara; Hofstatter, Erin; Aktas, Bilge; Pusztai, Lajos

    2015-01-01

    There is growing consensus that multigene prognostic tests provide useful complementary information to tumor size and grade in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. The tests primarily rely on quantification of ER and proliferation-related genes and combine these into multivariate prediction models. Since ER-negative cancers tend to have higher proliferation rates, the prognostic value of current multigene tests in these cancers is limited. First-generation prognostic signatures (Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, Genomic Grade Index) are substantially more accurate to predict recurrence within the first 5 years than in later years. This has become a limitation with the availability of effective extended adjuvant endocrine therapies. Newer tests (Prosigna, EndoPredict, Breast Cancer Index) appear to possess better prognostic value for late recurrences while also remaining predictive of early relapse. Some clinical prediction problems are more difficult to solve than others: there are no clinically useful prognostic signatures for ER-negative cancers, and drug-specific treatment response predictors also remain elusive. Emerging areas of research involve the development of immune gene signatures that carry modest but significant prognostic value independent of proliferation and ER status and represent candidate predictive markers for immune-targeted therapies. Overall metrics of tumor heterogeneity and genome integrity (for example, homologue recombination deficiency score) are emerging as potential new predictive markers for platinum agents. The recent expansion of high-throughput technology platforms including low-cost sequencing of circulating and tumor-derived DNA and RNA and rapid reliable quantification of microRNA offers new opportunities to build extended prediction models across multiplatform data. PMID:25848861

  8. A controlled trial of the effectiveness of a diabetes education programme in a multi-ethnic community in Glasgow [ISRCT28317455

    PubMed Central

    Baradaran, Hamid R; Knill-Jones, Robin P; Wallia, Sunita; Rodgers, Alison

    2006-01-01

    Background Epidemiologic data have shown that the prevalence of Type 2 diabetes varies with ethnic origin. Type 2 diabetes is up to four times more common in British South Asians than in the indigenous white population. The aim of this study was to develop a culturally appropriate educational intervention programme for South Asians with Type 2 diabetes. We then investigated whether this intervention could produce an improvement, and finally whether any improvement was greater than background changes in knowledge in comparison groups. Methods A multi-site prospective, randomised controlled study was conducted in all day care centres and three general practice registers with high proportion patients from different ethnic minority groups in Glasgow, Scotland. The intervention consisted of 18 educational sessions in 6 separate programmes. A modified questionnaire was used to measure the knowledge, attitudes, and practice of diabetes before and after intervention. Results Baseline assessment showed that Indian and Pakistani subjects had less knowledge about diabetes, regarded the disease less seriously, and had a lesser understanding of the relationship between control and complications than the white population. No differences in initial responses were found between those who completed the second assessment and those who did not. The intervention group showed significant improvements in scores for Knowledge (+12.5%); Attitudes toward seriousness (+13.5%), complications (+8.1%), Practice (+20.0%). However there were also changes in the ethnic control group scores; respectively +5.0%, +16.3% (significant P < 0.001), +1.5%, +1.7%. The single white control group also showed some improvements; respectively +12.2%, +12.4% (P = 0.04), +6.0%, +25.0% (P = 0.007), but the differences in improvement between these two control groups were not significant. Overall, the improvement seen was similar in both intervention and ethnic control groups and there was no significant difference

  9. [Scoring systems in intensive care medicine : principles, models, application and limits].

    PubMed

    Fleig, V; Brenck, F; Wolff, M; Weigand, M A

    2011-10-01

    Scoring systems are used in all diagnostic areas of medicine. Several parameters are evaluated and rated with points according to their value in order to simplify a complex clinical situation with a score. The application ranges from the classification of disease severity through determining the number of staff for the intensive care unit (ICU) to the evaluation of new therapies under study conditions. Since the introduction of scoring systems in the 1980's a variety of different score models has been developed. The scoring systems that are employed in intensive care and are discussed in this article can be categorized into prognostic scores, expenses scores and disease-specific scores. Since the introduction of compulsory recording of two scoring systems for accounting in the German diagnosis-related groups (DRG) system, these tools have gained more importance for all intensive care physicians. Problems remain in the valid calculation of scores and interpretation of the results. PMID:21997474

  10. The systemic inflammatory response as a prognostic factor for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma with extrahepatic metastasis

    PubMed Central

    AINO, HAJIME; SUMIE, SHUJI; NIIZEKI, TAKASHI; KUROMATSU, RYOKO; TAJIRI, NOBUYOSHI; NAKANO, MASAHITO; SATANI, MANABU; OKAMURA, SHUSUKE; SHIMOSE, SHIGEO; MIYAHARA, KENSUKE; TORIMURA, TAKUJI

    2016-01-01

    Several indices have been proposed to evaluate the systemic inflammatory response (SIR), which has been reported to be a useful prognostic factor in various types of cancer. We investigated the usefulness of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) as prognostic factors in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with extrahepatic metastasis (stage IVB). Between April, 1997 and March, 2013, a total of 434 HCC patients who developed extrahepatic metastasis were enrolled in the present study. The GPS was defined on the basis of pretreatment C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin (Alb) levels, and the subjects were grouped according to GPS 0–2. The NLR was calculated as the neutrophil count/lymphocyte count, and the PLR was calculated as the platelet count/lymphocyte count. A comparative examination was performed using a survival analysis with approximate median values to determine the cut-off value for both ratios. The median survival time (MST) of the 434 patients overall was 7.3 months, with cumulative survival rates of 31.8, 14.5 and 7.7% at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. The patient backround was as follows: The male:female ratio was 363:71, with a median age of 67.0 years (range, 15.0–92.0 years). Hepatitis B virus patients:hepatitis C virus patients:non-B, non-C hepatitis patients = 75:303:56. Child-Pugh class A:B:C = 218:153:63. As regards T stage, ≤T2:T3:T4 = 60:190:181. The median white blood cell count was 4,650/l (range, 1,400-20,500/l); the platelet count was 11.1×104/µl (range, 3.1×104-45.5×104/µl); the aspartate aminotransferase level was 40.0 U/l (range, 7.0–338.0 U/l) and the alanine aminotransferase level 64.5 U/l (range, 16.0–407.0 U/l); the α-fetoprotein level was 622.1 ng/ml (range, 1.5–3,311,794.0 ng/ml); and the des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin level was 1,285.0 mAU/ml (range, 8.0->75,000 mAU/ml). The principal sites of metastasis included the lungs

  11. Home Energy Score

    SciTech Connect

    2011-12-16

    The Home Energy Score allows a homeowner to compare her or his home's energy consumption to that of other homes, similar to a vehicle's mile-per-gallon rating. A home energy assessor will collect energy information during a brief home walk-through and then score that home on a scale of 1 to 10.

  12. SCORE - A DESCRIPTION.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    SLACK, CHARLES W.

    REINFORCEMENT AND ROLE-REVERSAL TECHNIQUES ARE USED IN THE SCORE PROJECT, A LOW-COST PROGRAM OF DELINQUENCY PREVENTION FOR HARD-CORE TEENAGE STREET CORNER BOYS. COMMITTED TO THE BELIEF THAT THE BOYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ETHICAL BEHAVIOR, THE SCORE WORKER FOLLOWS B.F. SKINNER'S THEORY OF OPERANT CONDITIONING AND REINFORCES THE DELINQUENT'S GOOD…

  13. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: practical prognostic models based on large cohort of international patients

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate practical prognostic models for death at 14 days and for death or severe disability six months after traumatic brain injury. Design Multivariable logistic regression to select variables that were independently associated with two patient outcomes. Two models designed: “basic” model (demographic and clinical variables only) and “CT” model (basic model plus results of computed tomography). The models were subsequently developed for high and low-middle income countries separately. Setting Medical Research Council (MRC) CRASH Trial. Subjects 10 008 patients with traumatic brain injury. Models externally validated in a cohort of 8509. Results The basic model included four predictors: age, Glasgow coma scale, pupil reactivity, and the presence of major extracranial injury. The CT model also included the presence of petechial haemorrhages, obliteration of the third ventricle or basal cisterns, subarachnoid bleeding, midline shift, and non-evacuated haematoma. In the derivation sample the models showed excellent discrimination (C statistic above 0.80). The models showed good calibration graphically. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated good calibration, except for the CT model in low-middle income countries. External validation for unfavourable outcome at six months in high income countries showed that basic and CT models had good discrimination (C statistic 0.77 for both models) but poorer calibration. Conclusion Simple prognostic models can be used to obtain valid predictions of relevant outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury. PMID:18270239

  14. Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Spolverato, Gaya; Pawlik, Timothy M.; Huo, Teh-la; Lee, Yun-Hsuan; Frigo, Anna Chiara; Giacomin, Anna; Giannini, Edoardo G.; Ciccarese, Francesca; Piscaglia, Fabio; Rapaccini, Gian Lodovico; Caturelli, Eugenio; Zoli, Marco; Borzio, Franco; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Sacco, Rodolfo; Morisco, Filomena; Biasini, Elisabetta; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Svegliati Baroni, Gianluca; Virdone, Roberto; Trevisani, Franco; Cillo, Umberto

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. Methods and Findings Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child–Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26–106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12–61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2–3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4–5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese

  15. Reporting Valid and Reliable Overall Scores and Domain Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yao, Lihua

    2010-01-01

    In educational assessment, overall scores obtained by simply averaging a number of domain scores are sometimes reported. However, simply averaging the domain scores ignores the fact that different domains have different score points, that scores from those domains are related, and that at different score points the relationship between overall…

  16. Heart failure prognostic model.

    PubMed

    Axente, L; Sinescu, C; Bazacliu, G

    2011-05-15

    Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly, disabling and deadly syndrome. Heart failure is a progressive disease characterized by high prevalence in society, significantly reducing physical and mental health, frequent hospitalization and high mortality (50% of the patients survive up to 4 years after the diagnosis, the annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). The purpose of this study is to develop a prognostic model with easily obtainable variables for patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS. Our lot included 101 non-consecutive hospitalized patients with heart failure diagnosis. It included 49.5% women having the average age of 71.23 years (starting from 40 up to 91 years old) and the roughly estimated period for monitoring was 35.1 months (5-65 months). Survival data were available for all patients and the median survival duration was of 44.0 months. A large number of variables (demographic, etiologic, co morbidity, clinical, echocardiograph, ECG, laboratory and medication) were evaluated. We performed a complex statistical analysis, studying: survival curve, cumulative hazard, hazard function, lifetime distribution and density function, meaning residual life time, Ln S (t) vs. t and Ln(H) t vs. Ln (t). The Cox multiple regression model was used in order to determine the major factors that allow the forecasting survival and their regression coefficients: age (0.0369), systolic blood pressure (-0.0219), potassium (0.0570), sex (-0.3124) and the acute myocardial infarction (0.2662). DISCUSSION. Our model easily incorporates obtainable variables that may be available in any hospital, accurately predicting survival of the heart failure patients and enables risk stratification in a few hours after the patients' presentation. Our model is derived from a sample of patients hospitalized in an emergency department of cardiology, some with major life-altering co morbidities. The benefit of being aware of the prognosis of these patients with high risk is extremely

  17. Heart failure prognostic model

    PubMed Central

    Axente, L; Sinescu, C; Bazacliu, G

    2011-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly, disabling and deadly syndrome. Heart failure is a progressive disease characterized by high prevalence in society, significantly reducing physical and mental health, frequent hospitalization and high mortality (50% of the patients survive up to 4 years after the diagnosis, the annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). The purpose of this study is to develop a prognostic model with easily obtainable variables for patients with heart failure. Methods and Results. Our lot included 101 non–consecutive hospitalized patients with heart failure diagnosis. It included 49,5% women having the average age of 71.23 years (starting from 40 up to 91 years old) and the roughly estimated period for monitoring was 35.1 months (5–65 months). Survival data were available for all patients and the median survival duration was of 44.0 months. A large number of variables (demographic, etiologic, co morbidity, clinical, echocardiograph, ECG, laboratory and medication) were evaluated. We performed a complex statistical analysis, studying: survival curve, cumulative hazard, hazard function, lifetime distribution and density function, meaning residual life time, Ln S (t) vs. t and Ln(H) t vs. Ln (t). The Cox multiple regression model was used in order to determine the major factors that allow the forecasting survival and their regression coefficients: age (0.0369), systolic blood pressure (–0.0219), potassium (0.0570), sex (–0.3124) and the acute myocardial infarction (0.2662). Discussion. Our model easily incorporates obtainable variables that may be available in any hospital, accurately predicting survival of the heart failure patients and enables risk stratification in a few hours after the patients' presentation. Our model is derived from a sample of patients hospitalized in an emergency department of cardiology, some with major life–altering co morbidities. The benefit of being aware of the prognosis of these patients with high risk is

  18. Towards Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan; Biswas, Gautam; Goegel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction algorithm and degradation model for electrolytic capacitors is presented. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. In particular, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses are presented. The capacitors used in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors.

  19. Deploying a culture change programme management approach in support of information and communication technology developments in Greater Glasgow NHS Board.

    PubMed

    Frame, Joanne; Watson, Janice; Thomson, Katie

    2008-06-01

    This article reports on the project management and Culture Change Programme adopted by the NHS Greater Glasgow Health Board to deliver an electronic patient record (EPR) to support cardiology and stroke clinical services. To achieve its vision for the EPR (;to "really make a difference" to patient care by providing to the right person, the right information, under the right safeguards') the Board recognized that attending to social and organizational issues is at least of equal importance to addressing strictly technical concerns. Consequently, an ICT Culture Change Programme (ICT CCP) was devised and implemented to assist in the management of change, and in particular to facilitate a visionary clinical and cultural environment operating in conjunction with the evolving technical environment. In this article we describe the key components of this approach, outline the benefits we believe have accrued, and describe the steps being taken to build upon lessons learned. PMID:18477599

  20. Women's work in offices and the preservation of men's "breadwinning" jobs in early twentieth-century Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Wilson, R G

    2001-01-01

    As Britain's industrial economy matured and the volume of administrative work increased, different kinds of clerical jobs and clerical careers became possible. Using examples from a variety of small- to medium-sized enterprises in Glasgow, this article will describe how the main functions of administrative work - financial, secretarial and managerial - were divided both horizontally and vertically in order to preserve secure, well-paid, "breadwinning" jobs for men, leaving routine secretarial work for women. The isolation of women in all-women enclaves carrying out shorthand and typing work and the subsequent devaluation of these as kinds of work were of primary importance in the creation of office work that was explicitly women's work. PMID:19678416

  1. WHEN CONSCIENCE ISN'T CLEAR: GREATER GLASGOW HEALTH BOARD v DOOGAN AND ANOTHER [2014] UKSC 68.

    PubMed

    Neal, Mary

    2015-01-01

    The Supreme Court's judgment in Doogan is a judicial review of a decision by Greater Glasgow Health Board regarding the scope of the conscience-based exemption in section 4(1) of the Abortion Act 1967. The case progressed through the Outer and Inner Houses of the Court of Session in Edinburgh before final judgment was delivered in the Supreme Court by Baroness Hale on December 17 2014. The Supreme Court eschewed consideration of the human rights dimension of the case (which had featured in the Outer House decision) and approached its judgment as 'a pure question of statutory construction'. This commentary engages with the judgment on its own terms, assessing it as an exercise in statutory interpretation, and leaves it to others who may wish to do so to comment on the human rights aspects of the case. PMID:26324460

  2. Seeking to Institutionally Embed Lessons from a Funded Project: Experiences from the Digital Libraries in the Classroom Spoken Word Project at Glasgow Caledonian University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donald, David; Wallace, Iain

    2007-01-01

    The Joint Information Systems Committee and the National Science Foundation programme, Digital Libraries in the Classroom (DLiC), addresses implications for the learning of the revolution in scholarly communication. What are the obstacles to undergraduates "'writing' on and for the Internet"? Glasgow Caledonian University (GCU) is a partner in one…

  3. Libraries for Life: Democracy, Diversity, Delivery. IFLA Council and General Conference: Conference Programme and Proceedings (68th, Glasgow, Scotland, August 18-24, 2002).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions, The Hague (Netherlands).

    This document presents the program and proceedings from the 68th International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions (IFLA) Conference held in Glasgow, Scotland, August 18-24, 2002. Topics of presentations include: library services for parliaments; needs assessment; the effects of September 11th on information provision and privacy;…

  4. Reliability and Validity of the Dutch Version of the Glasgow Anxiety Scale for People with an Intellectual Disability (GAS-ID)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hermans, H.; Wieland, J.; Jelluma, N.; Van der Pas, F.; Evenhuis, H.

    2013-01-01

    Background: In the Netherlands, no self-report screening questionnaire for anxiety in people with intellectual disabilities (ID) was available yet. Therefore, we have translated the Glasgow Anxiety Scale for people with an Intellectual Disability (GAS-ID) into Dutch and studied its reliability and validity in adults with borderline, mild or…

  5. SPEECH PATHOLOGY, DIAGNOSIS--THEORY AND PRACTICE, REPORT OF THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE COLLEGE OF SPEECH THERAPISTS (GLASGOW, JULY 25-29, 1966).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    1967

    TWENTY ARTICLES AND ABSTRACTS ON THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF DIAGNOSIS ARE INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT OF THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE COLLEGE OF SPEECH THERAPISTS IN GLASGOW IN 1966. FOUR PAPERS ON STAMMERING CONSIDER TONGUE THRUSTING, THE NEUROSES INVOLVED, PROGNOSIS, AND DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS IN DISORDERS OF FLUENCY. OTHER ARTICLES DISCUSS AREAS…

  6. Interleukin-6 as a Prognostic Biomarker in Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysms

    PubMed Central

    Kao, Hung-Wen; Kuo, Chen-Ling; Huang, Ching-Shan; Tseng, Wan-Min; Lin, Ching-Po

    2015-01-01

    Background Interleukin-6 (IL-6), a proinflammatory cytokine, was found to surge in the cerebral spinal fluid after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). We hypothesized that the plasma level of IL-6 could be an independent biomarker in predicting clinical outcome of patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysm. Methods We prospectively included 53 consecutive patients treated with platinum coil embolization of the ruptured intracranial aneurysm. Plasma IL-6 levels were measured in the blood samples at the orifices of the aneurysms and from peripheral veins. The outcome measure was the modified Rankin Scale one month after SAH. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations between the plasma IL-6 levels and the neurological outcome. Results Significant risk factors for the poor outcome were old age, low Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) on day 0, high Fisher grades, and high aneurysmal and venous IL-6 levels in univariate analyses. Aneurysmal IL-6 levels showed modest to moderate correlations with GCS on day 0, vasospasm grade and Fisher grade. A strong correlation was found between the aneurysmal and the corresponding venous IL-6 levels (ρ = 0.721; P<0.001). In the multiple logistic regression models, the poor 30-day mRS was significantly associated with high aneurysmal IL-6 level (OR, 17.97; 95% CI, 1.51–214.33; P = 0.022) and marginally associated with high venous IL-6 level (OR, 12.71; 95% CI, 0.90–180.35; P = 0.022) after adjusting for dichotomized age, GCS on day 0, and vasospasm and Fisher grades. Conclusions The plasma level of IL-6 is an independent prognostic biomarker that could be used to aid in the identification of patients at high-risk of poor neurological outcome after rupture of the intracranial aneurysm. PMID:26176774

  7. Breast thermography. A prognostic indicator for breast cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Isard, H J; Sweitzer, C J; Edelstein, G R

    1988-08-01

    A prognostic classification for thermographic staging of breast cancer has been applied to a cohort of 70 patients from 5040 screenees enrolled in the Albert Einstein Medical Center (AEMC) Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP). A diagnosis of breast cancer was established in each case before December 31, 1980. None of the patients have been lost to follow-up which extended from a minimum of 6 to a maximum of 13 years. Survival rates for those with favorable, equivocal, and poor thermographic factors are compared with each other and with results in accordance with tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification. As of December 31, 1986, there have been 22 (31.4%) deaths, all attributed to breast cancer. The thermographic scoring system clearly shows shorter survival for patients with poor thermographic prognostic factors, 30% surviving at 5 years and only 20% at 10 years compared with overall survival of 80% at 5 years and 70% at 10 years. PMID:3390789

  8. The Youth Throwing Score

    PubMed Central

    Ahmad, Christopher S.; Padaki, Ajay S.; Noticewala, Manish Suresh; Makhni, Eric Chugh; Popkin, Charles Aaron

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Epidemic levels of shoulder and elbow injuries have been reported in youth and adolescent baseball players. Despite the concerning frequency of these injuries, no instrument has been validated to assess upper extremity injury in this patient population. The purpose of this study was to validate an upper extremity assessment tool specifically designed for youth baseball players. We hypothesize this tool will be reliable, responsive and valid. Methods: The Youth Throwing Score (YTS) was constructed by a multidisciplinary healthcare provider team in addition to baseball coaches as a tool to assess upper extremity injury in 10 to 18 year old baseball players. The instrument was comprised of a demographics section and a 14 item assessment of pain, fatigue and psychosocial health. The 14 items were scored from 1 to 5 and weighted equally, with higher scores reflecting fewer symptoms and less functional disability. The psychometric properties, including the test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and responsiveness were calculated. Additionally, the Pearson correlation coefficient to 4 validated outcomes was determined. Results: A pilot form of the instrument was administered to 25 players to assess comprehension and mean item importance. Pilot analysis resulted in none of the 14 items receiving less than a 3 out of 5 mean athlete importance rating and the final instrument read at a Flesch-Kincaid level of 4.1, appropriate for patients age 9 and older. A total of 223 players completed the Youth Throwing Score, with an average player age of 14.3 ± 2.7 years old. The players self-assigned injury status, resulting in an average survey score of 59.7 ± 8.4 for the 148 players ‘playing without pain,’ 42.0 ± 11.5 for the 60 players ‘playing with pain,’ and 40.4 ± 10.5 for the 15 players ‘not playing due to pain.’ Players playing without pain scored significantly higher than those playing with pain (p < .001). The scoring tiers of the Youth

  9. Nutrient Density Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickinson, Annette; Thompson, William T.

    1979-01-01

    Announces a nutrient density food scoring system called the Index of Nutritional Quality (INQ). It expresses the ratio between the percent RDA of a nutrient and the percent daily allowance of calories in a food. (Author/SA)

  10. Volleyball Scoring Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calhoun, William; Dargahi-Noubary, G. R.; Shi, Yixun

    2002-01-01

    The widespread interest in sports in our culture provides an excellent opportunity to catch students' attention in mathematics and statistics classes. One mathematically interesting aspect of volleyball, which can be used to motivate students, is the scoring system. (MM)

  11. "Score the Core" Web-based pathologist training tool improves the accuracy of breast cancer IHC4 scoring.

    PubMed

    Engelberg, Jesse A; Retallack, Hanna; Balassanian, Ronald; Dowsett, Mitchell; Zabaglo, Lila; Ram, Arishneel A; Apple, Sophia K; Bishop, John W; Borowsky, Alexander D; Carpenter, Philip M; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Datnow, Brian; Elson, Sarah; Hasteh, Farnaz; Lin, Fritz; Moatamed, Neda A; Zhang, Yanhong; Cardiff, Robert D

    2015-11-01

    Hormone receptor status is an integral component of decision-making in breast cancer management. IHC4 score is an algorithm that combines hormone receptor, HER2, and Ki-67 status to provide a semiquantitative prognostic score for breast cancer. High accuracy and low interobserver variance are important to ensure the score is accurately calculated; however, few previous efforts have been made to measure or decrease interobserver variance. We developed a Web-based training tool, called "Score the Core" (STC) using tissue microarrays to train pathologists to visually score estrogen receptor (using the 300-point H score), progesterone receptor (percent positive), and Ki-67 (percent positive). STC used a reference score calculated from a reproducible manual counting method. Pathologists in the Athena Breast Health Network and pathology residents at associated institutions completed the exercise. By using STC, pathologists improved their estrogen receptor H score and progesterone receptor and Ki-67 proportion assessment and demonstrated a good correlation between pathologist and reference scores. In addition, we collected information about pathologist performance that allowed us to compare individual pathologists and measures of agreement. Pathologists' assessment of the proportion of positive cells was closer to the reference than their assessment of the relative intensity of positive cells. Careful training and assessment should be used to ensure the accuracy of breast biomarkers. This is particularly important as breast cancer diagnostics become increasingly quantitative and reproducible. Our training tool is a novel approach for pathologist training that can serve as an important component of ongoing quality assessment and can improve the accuracy of breast cancer prognostic biomarkers. PMID:26410019

  12. Procalcitonin kinetics – prognostic and diagnostic significance in septic patients

    PubMed Central

    Mierzchała-Pasierb, Magdalena; Durek, Grażyna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Severe sepsis and septic shock are advanced clinical conditions representing the patient's response to infection and having a variable but high mortality rate. Early evaluation of sepsis stage and choice of adequate treatment are key factors for survival. Some study results suggest the necessity of daily procalcitonin (PCT) monitoring because of its prognostic and discriminative value. Material and methods An observational and prospective study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic and discriminative value of PCT kinetics in comparison to PCT absolute value measurements. In a group of 50 intensive care unit patients with diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock, serum PCT measurements were performed on admission, and on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th day of therapy. The level of PCT was determined with a commercially available test according to the manufacturer's protocol. Results The kinetics of PCT assessed by ΔPCT was statistically significant in the survivors vs. the non-survivors subgroup (ΔPCT3/1, p = 0.022; ΔPCT5/1, p = 0.021). ΔPCT has no statistical significance in the severe sepsis and septic shock subgroups for all analyzed days. Only the 5th day PCT level was significantly higher in the non-survivors vs. survivors group (p = 0.008). The 1st day PCT level in the severe sepsis vs. septic shock group has a discriminative impact (p = 0.009). Conclusions According to the results, single serum PCT measurement, regardless of absolute value, has a discriminative impact but no prognostic significance, during the first 2 days of therapy. The PCT kinetics is of prognostic value from the 3rd day and is of earlier prognostic significance in comparison to changes in the patient's clinical condition evaluated by SOFA score kinetics. PMID:26925126

  13. Predictive score for early diagnosis of acute encephalopathy with biphasic seizures and late reduced diffusion (AESD).

    PubMed

    Tada, Hiroko; Takanashi, Jun-ichi; Okuno, Hideo; Kubota, Masaya; Yamagata, Takanori; Kawano, Gou; Shiihara, Takashi; Hamano, Shin-ichiro; Hirose, Shinichi; Hayashi, Takuya; Osaka, Hitoshi; Mizuguchi, Masashi

    2015-11-15

    Acute encephalopathy with biphasic seizures and late reduced diffusion (AESD) at onset manifests an early seizure (ES) usually lasting more than 30 min. Following ES, some patients exhibit almost clear consciousness with no neurological symptoms, and no MRI abnormality for a few days, which may lead to an initial misdiagnosis of prolonged febrile seizures (PFS). To allow an early diagnosis of AESD, we retrospectively analyzed clinical manifestations, laboratory data, and radiologic and EEG findings in patients with AESD (n=62) having ES of over 30 min, and ones with PFS (n=54), using logistic regression analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that an age below 1.5 years and a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 14 or less than 14 (Japan Coma Scale score of 1 or higher) were high risk factors of developing AESD. We proposed an AESD prediction score system consisting of consciousness level, age, duration of convulsions, enforcement of mechanical intubation, and aspartate aminotransferase, blood glucose and creatinine levels (full score: 9), the mean scores in AESD and PFS being 5.9 and 1.8, which were significantly different (p<0.001). We herein propose a scoring system for differentiating patients with AESD and PFS around the time of ES (score of 4 or more than 4 suggesting AESD), which may contribute to early therapeutic intervention and an improved neurologic outcome. PMID:26333951

  14. Monoclonal antibody BrE-3 participation in a multivariate prognostic model for infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast.

    PubMed

    Chan, C M; Baratta, F S; Ozzello, L; Ceriani, R L

    1994-01-01

    Monoclonal antibody (MoAb) BrE-3, an anti-human milk fat globule (HMFG) MoAb, is used here as a novel prognostic indicator for survival and relapse time in patients with infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast. A scoring system (4-Score method) was developed to this effect that measured, in a statistically reliable fashion, the level of expression of the epitope for MoAb BrE-3 in the cytoplasm and membranes of breast carcinoma cells in paraffin-embedded sections. In univariate analysis, data obtained by the 4-Score Method as well as data from traditional prognostic indicators (tumor size, axillary node status, and grade of differentiation) were found to be associated with patient survival and relapse. In multivariate analysis, using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, levels of expression of BrE-3 epitope plus tumor size and axillary node status were weighted and combined in an Individual Linear Composite Prognostic Score (ILCPS) that had a high level of association with survival and relapse time in this sample model of patients with infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast. This level of association was found to be higher than the level of association for any other combination of traditional or 4-Score method variables. The level of expression of BrE-3 significantly adds to the prognostic capacity of traditional prognostic markers for infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast. PMID:7981443

  15. Cytogenetic Prognostication Within Medulloblastoma Subgroups

    PubMed Central

    Shih, David J.H.; Northcott, Paul A.; Remke, Marc; Korshunov, Andrey; Ramaswamy, Vijay; Kool, Marcel; Luu, Betty; Yao, Yuan; Wang, Xin; Dubuc, Adrian M.; Garzia, Livia; Peacock, John; Mack, Stephen C.; Wu, Xiaochong; Rolider, Adi; Morrissy, A. Sorana; Cavalli, Florence M.G.; Jones, David T.W.; Zitterbart, Karel; Faria, Claudia C.; Schüller, Ulrich; Kren, Leos; Kumabe, Toshihiro; Tominaga, Teiji; Shin Ra, Young; Garami, Miklós; Hauser, Peter; Chan, Jennifer A.; Robinson, Shenandoah; Bognár, László; Klekner, Almos; Saad, Ali G.; Liau, Linda M.; Albrecht, Steffen; Fontebasso, Adam; Cinalli, Giuseppe; De Antonellis, Pasqualino; Zollo, Massimo; Cooper, Michael K.; Thompson, Reid C.; Bailey, Simon; Lindsey, Janet C.; Di Rocco, Concezio; Massimi, Luca; Michiels, Erna M.C.; Scherer, Stephen W.; Phillips, Joanna J.; Gupta, Nalin; Fan, Xing; Muraszko, Karin M.; Vibhakar, Rajeev; Eberhart, Charles G.; Fouladi, Maryam; Lach, Boleslaw; Jung, Shin; Wechsler-Reya, Robert J.; Fèvre-Montange, Michelle; Jouvet, Anne; Jabado, Nada; Pollack, Ian F.; Weiss, William A.; Lee, Ji-Yeoun; Cho, Byung-Kyu; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Leonard, Jeffrey R.; Rubin, Joshua B.; de Torres, Carmen; Lavarino, Cinzia; Mora, Jaume; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Tabori, Uri; Olson, James M.; Gajjar, Amar; Packer, Roger J.; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pomeroy, Scott L.; French, Pim J.; Kloosterhof, Nanne K.; Kros, Johan M.; Van Meir, Erwin G.; Clifford, Steven C.; Bourdeaut, Franck; Delattre, Olivier; Doz, François F.; Hawkins, Cynthia E.; Malkin, David; Grajkowska, Wieslawa A.; Perek-Polnik, Marta; Bouffet, Eric; Rutka, James T.; Pfister, Stefan M.; Taylor, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Medulloblastoma comprises four distinct molecular subgroups: WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4. Current medulloblastoma protocols stratify patients based on clinical features: patient age, metastatic stage, extent of resection, and histologic variant. Stark prognostic and genetic differences among the four subgroups suggest that subgroup-specific molecular biomarkers could improve patient prognostication. Patients and Methods Molecular biomarkers were identified from a discovery set of 673 medulloblastomas from 43 cities around the world. Combined risk stratification models were designed based on clinical and cytogenetic biomarkers identified by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses. Identified biomarkers were tested using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) on a nonoverlapping medulloblastoma tissue microarray (n = 453), with subsequent validation of the risk stratification models. Results Subgroup information improves the predictive accuracy of a multivariable survival model compared with clinical biomarkers alone. Most previously published cytogenetic biomarkers are only prognostic within a single medulloblastoma subgroup. Profiling six FISH biomarkers (GLI2, MYC, chromosome 11 [chr11], chr14, 17p, and 17q) on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues, we can reliably and reproducibly identify very low-risk and very high-risk patients within SHH, Group 3, and Group 4 medulloblastomas. Conclusion Combining subgroup and cytogenetic biomarkers with established clinical biomarkers substantially improves patient prognostication, even in the context of heterogeneous clinical therapies. The prognostic significance of most molecular biomarkers is restricted to a specific subgroup. We have identified a small panel of cytogenetic biomarkers that reliably identifies very high-risk and very low-risk groups of patients, making it an excellent tool for selecting patients for therapy intensification and therapy de-escalation in future clinical trials. PMID

  16. Prognostic factors in prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Braeckman, Johan; Michielsen, Dirk

    2007-01-01

    In the nineteenth century the main goal of medicine was predictive: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted to cure the disease. Since the twentieth century, the word prognosis has also been used in nonmedical contexts, for example in corporate finance or elections. The most accurate form of prognosis is achieved statistically. Based on different prognostic factors it should be possible to tell patients how they are expected to do after prostate cancer has been diagnosed and how different treatments may change this outcome. A prognosis is a prediction. The word prognosis comes from the Greek word (see text) and means foreknowing. In the nineteenth century this was the main goal of medicine: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted towards seeking a cure. Prognostic factors in (prostate) cancer are defined as "variables that can account for some of the heterogeneity associated with the expected course and outcome of a disease". Bailey defined prognosis as "a reasoned forecast concerning the course, pattern, progression, duration, and end of the disease. Prognostic factors are not only essential to understand the natural history and the course of the disease, but also to predict possible different outcomes of different treatments or perhaps no treatment at all. This is extremely important in a disease like prostate cancer where there is clear evidence that a substantial number of cases discovered by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing are unlikely ever to become clinically significant, not to mention mortal. Furthermore, prognostic factors are of paramount importance for correct interpretation of clinical trials and for the construction of future trials. Finally, according to WHO national screening committee criteria for implementing a national screening programme, widely accepted prognostic factors must be defined before

  17. Risk prediction score for death of traumatised and injured children

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Injury prediction scores facilitate the development of clinical management protocols to decrease mortality. However, most of the previously developed scores are limited in scope and are non-specific for use in children. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of death for injured and Traumatised Thai children. Methods Our cross-sectional study included 43,516 injured children from 34 emergency services. A risk prediction model was derived using a logistic regression analysis that included 15 predictors. Model performance was assessed using the concordance statistic (C-statistic) and the observed per expected (O/E) ratio. Internal validation of the model was performed using a 200-repetition bootstrap analysis. Results Death occurred in 1.7% of the injured children (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.57–1.82). Ten predictors (i.e., age, airway intervention, physical injury mechanism, three injured body regions, the Glasgow Coma Scale, and three vital signs) were significantly associated with death. The C-statistic and the O/E ratio were 0.938 (95% CI: 0.929–0.947) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.70–1.02), respectively. The scoring scheme classified three risk stratifications with respective likelihood ratios of 1.26 (95% CI: 1.25–1.27), 2.45 (95% CI: 2.42–2.52), and 4.72 (95% CI: 4.57–4.88) for low, intermediate, and high risks of death. Internal validation showed good model performance (C-statistic = 0.938, 95% CI: 0.926–0.952) and a small calibration bias of 0.002 (95% CI: 0.0005–0.003). Conclusions We developed a simplified Thai pediatric injury death prediction score with satisfactory calibrated and discriminative performance in emergency room settings. PMID:24575982

  18. Walk Score®

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Scott C.; Pantin, Hilda; Lombard, Joanna; Toro, Matthew; Huang, Shi; Plater-Zyberk, Elizabeth; Perrino, Tatiana; Perez-Gomez, Gianna; Barrera-Allen, Lloyd; Szapocznik, José

    2013-01-01

    Background Walk Score® is a nationally and publicly available metric of neighborhood walkability based on proximity to amenities (e.g., retail, food, schools). However, few studies have examined the relationship of Walk Score to walking behavior. Purpose To examine the relationship of Walk Score to walking behavior in a sample of recent Cuban immigrants, who overwhelmingly report little choice in their selection of neighborhood built environments when they arrive in the U.S. Methods Participants were 391 recent healthy Cuban immigrants (M age=37.1 years) recruited within 90 days of arrival in the U.S., and assessed within 4 months of arrival (M=41.0 days in the U.S.), who resided throughout Miami-Dade County FL. Data on participants’ addresses, walking and sociodemographics were collected prospectively from 2008 to 2010. Analyses conducted in 2011 examined the relationship of Walk Score for each participant’s residential address in the U.S. to purposive walking, controlling for age, gender, education, BMI, days in the U.S., and habitual physical activity level in Cuba. Results For each 10-point increase in Walk Score, adjusting for covariates, there was a significant 19% increase in the likelihood of purposive walking, a 26% increase in the likelihood of meeting physical activity recommendations by walking, and 27% more minutes walked in the previous week. Conclusions Results suggest that Walk Score is associated with walking in a sample of recent immigrants who initially had little choice in where they lived in the U.S. These results support existing guidelines indicating that mixed land use (such as parks and restaurants near homes) should be included when designing walkable communities. PMID:23867028

  19. Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Kai-Yu; Xu, Jian-Bo; Chen, Shu-Ling; Yuan, Yu-Jie; Wu, Hui; Peng, Jian-Jun; Chen, Chuang-Qi; Guo, Pi; Hao, Yuan-Tao; He, Yu-Long

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between 1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias. RESULTS: Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring (hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval: 1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage II-III disease (P = 0.019, P < 0.001), T3-T4 tumors (P < 0.001), or lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). Canton score, a combination of PNI, NLR, and platelet, was a better indicator for OS than PNI, with the largest area under the curve for 12-, 36-, 60-mo OS and overall OS (P = 0.022, P = 0.030, P < 0.001, and P = 0.024, respectively). The maximum sensitivity, specificity, and agreement rate of Canton score for predicting prognosis were 84.6%, 34.9%, and 70.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: PNI is an independent prognostic factor for OS in gastric cancer. Canton score can be a novel preoperative prognostic index in gastric cancer. PMID:26019461

  20. Modelling shallow urban geology using reservoir modelling techniques: voxel-based lithology and physical properties of the greater Glasgow area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kingdon, Andrew; Williams, John D. O.; Williamson, J. Paul; Lark, R. Murray; Dobbs, Marcus R.; Kearsey, Timothy; Finlayson, Andrew; Campbell, S. Diarmad G.

    2013-04-01

    Conventional 3D geological models of lithostratigraphy undertaken by BGS have facilitated a significant step forward in understanding of the 3D sedimentological and structural controls in the subsurface of the UK. However, when lithostratigraphic units are mapped or modelled in 3D, intra-unit variability is often not recognized and may be substantial, particularly in sedimentologically heterogeneous successions. Because of this BGS has been testing voxel grid-based approaches in urban areas with high borehole density. A city-scale lithology model of shallow, unconsolidated sediments in Glasgow, Scotland has been developed as a test of the applicability of these techniques to aid geological understanding and possible future applications. This is of particular significance in this location due to the complex fluvial and glacial history of the superficial geology which alternates between inter-fingering sedimentary packages and short-scale variability of subsurface materials. The model has been created by developing a stochastic model of clastic geology on a voxel support, based on upscaling of observed borehole lithology, independent of lithostratigraphy. Multiple realisations of lithology were generated, each honouring the borehole observations. Lithology information has therefore been used to both develop a model of the distribution of lithology throughout the grid, but also to develop an understanding of the associated uncertainty by providing estimates of the probability with which a particular lithology occurs at a given node. This lithological model compares well with 'traditional' deterministic lithostratigraphic 3D models created in the same area, and with field-based geological maps. This lithological voxel model has been used as a matrix through which physical property data can be attributed within the grid by stochastic modelling and simulation of the variability of properties within the lithological units. Several different property datasets have been

  1. Reinforced Concrete Condition Assessment in Architectural Heritage. The Lion Chambers (Glasgow, UK) and the Theatre E. Duni (Matera, Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guida, A.; Dimitrijevic, B.; Pagliuca, A.

    2012-04-01

    The research objective is to provide new qualitative information on the strength of reinforced concrete structures of two prominent examples of modern architecture by using innovative, non-invasive testing techniques. The first one is Lion Chambers in Glasgow (Scotland, United Kingdom) designed by the architects Salmon, Son and Gillespie and completed in 1907. It was the second example of the use of François Hennebique's reinforced concrete system in a building in Glasgow and one of the earliest in Britain. The second example is Duni Theatre in Matera (Southern Italy), designed by the architect Ettore Stella and completed in 1949. The tests on the internal reinforced concrete columns were undertaken by using "SonReb" (SONic + REBound) method that enables assessing the concrete resistance by combining the speed of ultrasound waves and the index of surface bounce through a scleorometric test. In fact, the sclerometer index only gives information regarding the surface layer of the building's structure. In fact, due to the effects of the natural ageing, catalysed by the presence of humidity, surface layers of concrete are affected over time by carbonatation, which increases surface rigidity, providing as a result a greatly "altered" rebound index (much greater than one would have under normal conditions). On the other hand, the ultrasound speed, on the contrary to resistance, is inversely proportional to the age of the concrete (this seems to be due to the cracks that occur and reduce the speed). The hardening process continues over time with a consequent increase in resistance, which diminishes with the passage of time. The paper provides the results of the tests run on the structure of the Lion Chambers and the Duni Theatre. The tests carried out are the basis of a diagnostic project that is possible to implement and monitor to guarantee a deeper knowledge, with the goal of attaining a level of thorough understanding aimed at the preservation of "Modern Architecture

  2. Scoring from Contests

    PubMed Central

    Penn, Elizabeth Maggie

    2014-01-01

    This article presents a new model for scoring alternatives from “contest” outcomes. The model is a generalization of the method of paired comparison to accommodate comparisons between arbitrarily sized sets of alternatives in which outcomes are any division of a fixed prize. Our approach is also applicable to contests between varying quantities of alternatives. We prove that under a reasonable condition on the comparability of alternatives, there exists a unique collection of scores that produces accurate estimates of the overall performance of each alternative and satisfies a well-known axiom regarding choice probabilities. We apply the method to several problems in which varying choice sets and continuous outcomes may create problems for standard scoring methods. These problems include measuring centrality in network data and the scoring of political candidates via a “feeling thermometer.” In the latter case, we also use the method to uncover and solve a potential difficulty with common methods of rescaling thermometer data to account for issues of interpersonal comparability. PMID:24748759

  3. Automated Essay Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dikli, Semire

    2006-01-01

    The impacts of computers on writing have been widely studied for three decades. Even basic computers functions, i.e. word processing, have been of great assistance to writers in modifying their essays. The research on Automated Essay Scoring (AES) has revealed that computers have the capacity to function as a more effective cognitive tool (Attali,…

  4. Developing Scoring Algorithms

    Cancer.gov

    We developed scoring procedures to convert screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for fruits and vegetables, dairy, added sugars, whole grains, fiber, and calcium using the What We Eat in America 24-hour dietary recall data from the 2003-2006 NHANES.

  5. Sarcopenia in the prognosis of cirrhosis: Going beyond the MELD score.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hee Yeon; Jang, Jeong Won

    2015-07-01

    Estimating the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis remains challenging, because the natural history of cirrhosis varies according to the cause, presence of portal hypertension, liver synthetic function, and the reversibility of underlying disease. Conventional prognostic scoring systems, including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score or model for end-stage liver diseases are widely used; however, revised models have been introduced to improve prognostic performance. Although sarcopenia is one of the most common complications related to survival of patients with cirrhosis, the newly proposed prognostic models lack a nutritional status evaluation of patients. This is reflected by the lack of an optimal index for sarcopenia in terms of objectivity, reproducibility, practicality, and prognostic performance, and of a consensus definition for sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis in whom ascites and edema may interfere with body composition analysis. Quantifying skeletal muscle mass using cross-sectional abdominal imaging is a promising tool for assessing sarcopenia. As radiological imaging provides direct visualization of body composition, it is useful to evaluate sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis whose body mass index, anthropometric measurements, or biochemical markers are inaccurate on a nutritional assessment. Sarcopenia defined by cross-sectional imaging-based muscular assessment is prevalent and predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Sarcopenia alone or in combination with conventional prognostic systems shows promise for a cirrhosis prognosis. Including an objective assessment of sarcopenia with conventional scores to optimize the outcome prediction for patients with cirrhosis needs further research. PMID:26167066

  6. Procalcitonin as a Diagnostic and Prognostic Factor for Tuberculosis Meningitis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jinseung; Kim, Si Eun; Park, Bong Soo; Shin, Kyong Jin; Ha, Sam Yeol; Park, JinSe; Kim, Sung Eun

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose We investigated the potential role of serum procalcitonin in differentiating tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial and viral meningitis, and in predicting the prognosis of tuberculosis meningitis. Methods This was a retrospective study of 26 patients with tuberculosis meningitis. In addition, 70 patients with bacterial meningitis and 49 patients with viral meningitis were included as the disease control groups for comparison. The serum procalcitonin level was measured in all patients at admission. Differences in demographic and laboratory data, including the procalcitonin level, were analyzed among the three groups. In addition, we analyzed the predictive factors for a prognosis of tuberculosis meningitis using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) at discharge, and the correlation between the level of procalcitonin and the GCS score at discharge. Results Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that a low level of procalcitonin (≤1.27 ng/mL) independently distinguished tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial meningitis. The sensitivity and specificity for distinguishing tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial meningitis were 96.2% and 62.9%, respectively. However, the level of procalcitonin in patients with tuberculosis meningitis did not differ significantly from that in patients with viral meningitis. In patients with tuberculosis meningitis, a high level of procalcitonin (>0.4 ng/mL) was a predictor of a poor prognosis, and the level of procalcitonin was negatively correlated with the GCS score at discharge (r=-0.437, p=0.026). Conclusions We found that serum procalcitonin is a useful marker for differentiating tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial meningitis and is also valuable for predicting the prognosis of tuberculosis meningitis. PMID:27165424

  7. Comparison of Calipers for Matching on the Disease Risk Score.

    PubMed

    Connolly, John G; Gagne, Joshua J

    2016-05-15

    Previous studies have compared calipers for propensity score (PS) matching, but none have considered calipers for matching on the disease risk score (DRS). We used Medicare claims data to perform 3 cohort studies of medication initiators: a study of raloxifene versus alendronate in 1-year nonvertebral fracture risk, a study of cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitors versus nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory medications in 6-month gastrointestinal bleeding, and a study of simvastatin + ezetimibe versus simvastatin alone in 6-month cardiovascular outcomes. The study periods for each cohort were 1998 through 2005, 1999 through 2002, and 2004 through 2005, respectively. In each cohort, we calculated 1) a DRS, 2) a prognostic PS which included the DRS as the independent variable in a PS model, and 3) the PS for each patient. We then nearest-neighbor matched on each score in a variable ratio and a fixed ratio within 8 calipers based on the standard deviation of the logit and the natural score scale. When variable ratio matching on the DRS, a caliper of 0.05 on the natural scale performed poorly when the outcome was rare. The prognostic PS did not appear to offer any consistent practical benefits over matching on the DRS directly. In general, logit-based calipers or calipers smaller than 0.05 on the natural scale performed well when DRS matching in all examples. PMID:27037270

  8. Development of a Score Predicting Survival after Palliative Reirradiation

    PubMed Central

    Haukland, Ellinor; Grosu, Anca L.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. To develop a prognostic model for predicting survival after palliative reirradiation (PR). Methods and Materials. We analyzed all 87 PR courses administered at a dedicated palliative radiotherapy facility between 20.06.2007 (opening) and 31.12.2009. Uni- and multivariate survival analyses were performed, the previously published survival prediction score (SPS) was evaluated, and a PR-specific prognostic score was calculated. Results. In multivariate analysis, four parameters significantly influenced survival: performance status, use of steroids, presence of liver metastases, and pleural effusion. Based on these parameters, a 4-tiered score was developed. Median survival was 24.5 months for the favorable group, 9.7 and 2.8 months for the two intermediate groups, and 1.1 months for the unfavorable group (P = 0.019 for comparison between the two favorable groups and P ≤ 0.002 for all other pair-wise comparisons). All patients in the unfavorable group died within 2 months. Conclusion. The performance of PR-specific score was promising and might facilitate identification of patients who survive long enough to benefit from PR. It should be validated in independent patient groups, ideally from several institutions and countries. PMID:25332718

  9. A prognostic index for locoregional recurrence after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Herrero-Vicent, C; Guerrero-Zotano, A; Gavilá-Gregori, J; Hernández-Blanquisett, A; Sandiego-Contreras, S; Samper-Hiraldo, JM; Guillem-Porta, V; Ruiz-Simón, A

    2016-01-01

    Background The appropriate selection criteria for breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) are poorly defined. The aim of this study is to analyse the incidence and prognostic factors for locoregional recurrence (LRR) in patients with breast cancer (BC) treated with NAC to develop a prognostic score to help with clinical decision-making. Materials and methods Using our retrospective maintained BC database, we identified 730 patients treated with NAC (327 patients treated with BCS and 403 patients treated with mastectomy) between 1998 and 2014. To identify variables associated with an increased LRR rate, we performed firstly Kaplan–Meier curves, with comparisons among groups using log-rank test, and then, significant variables were included in a multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards. The prognostic index was developed by assigning score 0 (favourable) or score 1 (unfavourable) for each significant variable of multivariate analysis and was created separately for patients with BCS and mastectomy. Results At a median follow-up of 72 months, the 6-year cumulative incidence of LRR was 7.2% ( ± 3%) for BCS and 7.9% ( ± 3%) for mastectomy. By univariate analysis, variables associated with an increased LRR were for BCS: HER2 positive, grade III, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), No-pCR (ypTis, ypN0), and age < 40 years; and for mastectomy, HER2-positive, DCIS, No-pCR, and LVI. By multivariate analysis, variables associated with an increased LRR were for BCS: HER2 positive (HR: 11.1, p = 0.001), DCIS (HR: 3.1, p = 0.005), and age < 40 years (HR: 2.8, p = 0.02); and for mastectomy: HER2 positive (HR: 9.5, p = 0.03), DCIS (HR: 2.7, p = 0.01), No-pCR (HR: 11.4, p = 0.01), and age < 40 years (HR: 2.8, p = 0.006). The score stratified patients into three subsets with statistically different levels of risk for LRR. For BCS, the six-year LRR rates were 3%, 13%, and 33% for the low (score 0, n = 120), intermediate (score 1

  10. Developing a simple preinterventional score to predict hospital mortality in adult venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Meng-Yu; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Huang, Chung-Chi; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-07-01

    Despite gaining popularity, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) remains a controversial therapy for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in adult patients due to its equivocal survival benefits. The study was aimed at identifying the preinterventional prognostic predictors of hospital mortality in adult VV-ECMO patients and developing a practical mortality prediction score to facilitate clinical decision-making.This retrospective study included 116 adult patients who received VV-ECMO for severe ARF in a tertiary referral center, from 2007 to 2015. The definition of severe ARF was PaO2/ FiO2 ratio < 70 mm Hg under advanced mechanical ventilation (MV). Preinterventional variables including demographic characteristics, ventilatory parameters, and severity of organ dysfunction were collected for analysis. The prognostic predictors of hospital mortality were generated with multivariate logistic regression and transformed into a scoring system. The discriminative power on hospital mortality of the scoring system was presented as the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).The overall hospital mortality rate was 47% (n = 54). Pre-ECMO MV day > 4 (OR: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.98-11.23; P < 0.001), pre-ECMO sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score >9 (OR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.36-7.36; P = 0.01), and immunocompromised status (OR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.07-7.89; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of hospital mortality of adult VV-ECMO. A mortality prediction score comprising of the 3 binary predictors was developed and named VV-ECMO mortality score. The total score was estimated as follows: VV-ECMO mortality score = 2 × (Pre-ECMO MV day > 4) + 1 × (Pre-ECMO SOFA score >9) + 1 × (immunocompromised status). The AUROC of VV-ECMO mortality score was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.85; P < 0.001). The corresponding hospital mortality rates to VV-ECMO mortality scores were 18% (Score 0), 35% (Score 1), 56% (Score 2), 75% (Score

  11. Syncopation and the Score

    PubMed Central

    Song, Chunyang; Simpson, Andrew J. R.; Harte, Christopher A.; Pearce, Marcus T.; Sandler, Mark B.

    2013-01-01

    The score is a symbolic encoding that describes a piece of music, written according to the conventions of music theory, which must be rendered as sound (e.g., by a performer) before it may be perceived as music by the listener. In this paper we provide a step towards unifying music theory with music perception in terms of the relationship between notated rhythm (i.e., the score) and perceived syncopation. In our experiments we evaluated this relationship by manipulating the score, rendering it as sound and eliciting subjective judgments of syncopation. We used a metronome to provide explicit cues to the prevailing rhythmic structure (as defined in the time signature). Three-bar scores with time signatures of 4/4 and 6/8 were constructed using repeated one-bar rhythm-patterns, with each pattern built from basic half-bar rhythm-components. Our manipulations gave rise to various rhythmic structures, including polyrhythms and rhythms with missing strong- and/or down-beats. Listeners (N = 10) were asked to rate the degree of syncopation they perceived in response to a rendering of each score. We observed higher degrees of syncopation in time signatures of 6/8, for polyrhythms, and for rhythms featuring a missing down-beat. We also found that the location of a rhythm-component within the bar has a significant effect on perceived syncopation. Our findings provide new insight into models of syncopation and point the way towards areas in which the models may be improved. PMID:24040323

  12. Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Bhaskar; Celaya, Jose R.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2013-01-01

    Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  13. Neurological prognostication after cardiac arrest

    PubMed Central

    Sandroni, Claudio; Geocadin, Romergryko G.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Prediction of neurological prognosis in patients who are comatose after successful resuscitation from cardiac arrest remains difficult. Previous guidelines recommended ocular reflexes, somatosensory evoked potentials and serum biomarkers for predicting poor outcome within 72h from cardiac arrest. However, these guidelines were based on patients not treated with targeted temperature management and did not appropriately address important biases in literature. Recent findings Recent evidence reviews detected important limitations in prognostication studies, such as low precision and, most importantly, lack of blinding, which may have caused a self-fulfilling prophecy and overestimated the specificity of index tests. Maintenance of targeted temperature using sedatives and muscle relaxants may interfere with clinical examination, making assessment of neurological status before 72 h or more after cardiac arrest unreliable. Summary No index predicts poor neurological outcome after cardiac arrest with absolute certainty. Prognostic evaluation should start not earlier than 72 h after ROSC and only after major confounders have been excluded so that reliable clinical examination can be made. Multimodality appears to be the most reasonable approach for prognostication after cardiac arrest. PMID:25922894

  14. The Relation between Factor Score Estimates, Image Scores, and Principal Component Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.

    1976-01-01

    Investigates the relation between factor score estimates, principal component scores, and image scores. The three methods compared are maximum likelihood factor analysis, principal component analysis, and a variant of rescaled image analysis. (RC)

  15. Adopting seven-day working in practice: a report by the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Scott, H R; Isles, C J; Fisher, B M; Long, J; Dunn, F G

    2014-11-01

    Following the UK Academy of Medical Royal Colleges Report on seven day consultant present care, the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Glasgow held a symposium to explore clinicians' views on the ways in which clinical care should best be enhanced outside 'normal' working hours. In addition, a survey of members and fellows was undertaken to identify the tests which would make the greatest impact on care out of hours. Key messages were: (a) that seven-day consultant delivered care would not achieve the desired benefit to patient care if introduced in isolation from other inter-relating factors. These include alternatives to hospital admission, enhanced nursing support, increased junior medical, pharmacy, social care and ambulance availability and greater access to selected diagnostic services; (b) that the care of hospital inpatients is a service which is one part of the totality of secondary care provision. Any significant change in the deployment of staff for inpatient care must be carefully managed so as not to result in a reduced quality of care provided by the rest of the system. PMID:25351425

  16. Case notes, case histories, and the patient's experience of insanity at Gartnavel Royal Asylum, Glasgow, in the nineteenth century.

    PubMed

    Andrews, J

    1998-08-01

    This article is concerned primarily with questions as to how and why case notes were produced and utilized, and how they may (or may not) be used by historians. More specifically, it discusses how the Glasgow Royal Asylum's case notes may be deployed to access patients' experiences of madness and confinement. The deficiencies and biases of the case record are also explored. So too is the relationship of case notes with other asylum based records, including reception order questionnaires, with a separate section on patient writings as part of the case history corpus. This leads into an analysis of how the Asylum's case notes became case histories and for what purposes. These subjects are related to changes and continuities in medical ideologies about insanity, social attitudes to the insane and the nature of medical practice in asylums. Some fundamental shifts in emphasis in the use of the case note and case history occurred in this period. These shifts were associated with an increased emphasis on organic interpretations of mental disease and on clinical approaches to insanity; with the medicalization of asylum records and the wider discourse on insanity, and with declining deference to the public at large in the presentation of cases. The survey concludes by analysing the changing place of patient testimony within the case record. PMID:11620430

  17. Constructing Patient Stories: 'Dynamic' Case Notes and Clinical Encounters at Glasgow's Gartnavel Mental Hospital, 1921-32.

    PubMed

    Morrison, Hazel

    2016-01-01

    This article contextualises the production of patient records at Glasgow's Gartnavel Mental Hospital between 1921 and 1932. Following his appointment as asylum superintendent in 1921, psychiatrist David Kennedy Henderson sought to introduce a so-called dynamic approach to mental health care. He did so, primarily, by encouraging patients to reveal their inner lives through their own language and own understanding of their illness. To this effect, Henderson implemented several techniques devised to gather as much information as possible about patients. He notably established routine 'staff meetings' in which a psychiatrist directed questions towards a patient while a stenographer recorded word-for-word the conversation that passed between the two parties. As a result, the records compiled at Gartnavel under Henderson's guidance offer a unique window into the various strategies deployed by patients, but also allow physicians and hospital staff to negotiate their place amidst these clinical encounters. In this paper, I analyse the production of patient narratives in these materials. The article begins with Henderson's articulation of his 'dynamic' psychotherapeutic method, before proceeding to an in-depth hermeneutic investigation into samples of Gartnavel's case notes and staff meeting transcripts. In the process, patient-psychiatrist relationships are revealed to be mutually dependent and interrelated subjects of historical enquiry rather than as distinct entities. This study highlights the multi-vocal nature of the construction of stories 'from below' and interrogates their subsequent appropriation by historians. PMID:26651189

  18. Possibilities for Implementing Fracture Liaison Service in Poland in the Light of a Visit to Glasgow Western Infirmary.

    PubMed

    Amarowicz, Jarosław; Czerwiński, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Osteoporosis remains one of the top challenges for health services all over the world. Osteoporotic changes in bone structure along with the aging of society result in rapid growth of osteoporotic fractures. Statistics show that approximately 25% of women and 20% of men will suffer a subsequent fracture within 5 years of an initial one. In order to deal with the problem, a novel program in secondary fracture prevention was developed in Scotland in the late 1990's. The system was based on a coordinator and focused on identifying, diagnosing and treating patients with osteoporotic fractures. After just a few years, the system, known as Fracture Liaison Services (FLS), proved to be a cost-effective success. For the last several years, FLS has been implemented in countries all over the world. The Glasgow Western Infirmary, where the program started, continues to be one of the top exemplary facilities in the United Kingdom. Each year the Bone Metabolism Unit proves its effectiveness by providing 4000 DXA scans and taking care of 2500 fractures a year. In 2015, the European Foundation of Osteoporosis and Musculoskeletal Diseases successfully implemented a coordinator-based Fracture Liaison Service in Poland. PMID:26468179

  19. Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

    PubMed

    Parlier, V; van Melle, G; Beris, P; Schmidt, P M; Tobler, A; Haller, E; Bellomo, M J

    1995-06-01

    The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of

  20. Scores and scales used in emergency medicine. Practicability in toxicology.

    PubMed

    Oprita, B; Aignatoaie, B; Gabor-Postole, D A

    2014-01-01

    Medical scores, criteria and classification systems support clinical decision-making and management. They enable the clinician to predict the outcome, stratify risk, assess conditions and diagnose diseases accurately. In the emergency medicine, it is very important to ascertain safety criteria to discharge patients, time to remain in the E.R., and also ascertain the time intervals for discharge/admission. The use of the scores in the emergency medicine, toxicology and other areas of intensive medicine have become increasingly efficient. Creating a prognostic score for the acute intoxications to be used by the personnel from the Emergency Departments may have positive effects in the management of the poisoned patients (e.g. the admission in a certain treatment space: cases expected to have a trend towards worsening will be directed to the resuscitation space and after a short period of time admitted in the appropriate facility; this way, the bed occupancy time in the Emergency Department will be shortened). PMID:25870686

  1. Prognostic factors for stereopsis in refractive accommodative esotropia

    PubMed Central

    Guclu, Hande; Gurlu, Vuslat Pelitli; Ozal, Sadik Altan; Ozkurt, Zeynep Gursel

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To determine the prognostic factors affecting stereoacuity in patients with refractive accommodative esotropia (RAE) according to the results of long follow- up period. Methods: We reviewed the charts of 70 patients with RAE between the years 1985-2014. Patients were classified into three groups. G-1: Stereoacuity score 40 second/arc. G-2: Stereoacuity score >40 second/arc (50-3000). G-3: No binocular vision. Initiation age of RAE, duration of deviation, refractive error, amblyopia, amblyopia treatment, anisometropia, visual acuity, family history, angle of deviation for distance and near at each group and the prognostic factors affecting stereoacuity were analyzed. Results: The mean initiation age of RAE was 2.7±1.5 years, the mean age at first visit was 6.4±4.2 years. The mean follow up time was 7.3±4.4 years. Seven patients had 40 second/arc, 48 patients had 50 to 3000 second/arc stereoacuity, 15 patients had no binocular vision. Mean deviation for near was statistically higher in group 2 and 3. Visual acuity levels were higher in group 1 and 2 and was statistically significant. Low visual acuity (p=0.001, 0.008), higher angle of deviation at near (p=0.01), increased duration of deviation (p=0.01), presence of amblyopia (p=0.001) and irregularity of amblyopia treatment (p=0.01) were significantly related with poor stereoacuity. Conclusion: According to the prognostic factors low stereoacuity was mostly related with amblyopia as a result the late presentation of the patients in seeking care. Appropriate treatment as full refractive correction and amblyopia treatment during the RAE is important for development of good stereopsis. Also angle of deviation at near and duration of deviation can be a useful predictor for poor stereoacuity levels. PMID:26430408

  2. Evaluation of Model Specification, Variable Selection, and Adjustment Methods in Relation to Propensity Scores and Prognostic Scores in Multilevel Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Bing; Hong, Guanglei

    2012-01-01

    This study uses simulation examples representing three types of treatment assignment mechanisms in data generation (the random intercept and slopes setting, the random intercept setting, and a third setting with a cluster-level treatment and an individual-level outcome) in order to determine optimal procedures for reducing bias and improving…

  3. Distilling the Verification Process for Prognostics Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil; Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The goal of prognostics and health management (PHM) systems is to ensure system safety, and reduce downtime and maintenance costs. It is important that a PHM system is verified and validated before it can be successfully deployed. Prognostics algorithms are integral parts of PHM systems. This paper investigates a systematic process of verification of such prognostics algorithms. To this end, first, this paper distinguishes between technology maturation and product development. Then, the paper describes the verification process for a prognostics algorithm as it moves up to higher maturity levels. This process is shown to be an iterative process where verification activities are interleaved with validation activities at each maturation level. In this work, we adopt the concept of technology readiness levels (TRLs) to represent the different maturity levels of a prognostics algorithm. It is shown that at each TRL, the verification of a prognostics algorithm depends on verifying the different components of the algorithm according to the requirements laid out by the PHM system that adopts this prognostics algorithm. Finally, using simplified examples, the systematic process for verifying a prognostics algorithm is demonstrated as the prognostics algorithm moves up TRLs.

  4. Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Certo, Joseph M.; Handschuh, Robert F.; Dimofte, Florin

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a new Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig to evaluate the performance of sensors and algorithms in predicting failures of rolling element bearings for aeronautics and space applications. The failure progression of both conventional and hybrid (ceramic rolling elements, metal races) bearings can be tested from fault initiation to total failure. The effects of different lubricants on bearing life can also be evaluated. Test conditions monitored and recorded during the test include load, oil temperature, vibration, and oil debris. New diagnostic research instrumentation will also be evaluated for hybrid bearing damage detection. This paper summarizes the capabilities of this new test rig.

  5. Prognostic factors in lupus nephritis.

    PubMed

    Mok, C C

    2005-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a heterogeneous disorder and its renal manifestations are protean. The course and prognosis of lupus nephritis is dependent on a large number of demographic, histopathological, serological, racial, socioeconomic and time dependent factors. Moreover, the initial and maintenance therapeutic regimens may also influence the long term renal outcome. This article reviews the important prognostic factors that have been reported in literature. The management strategy of lupus nephritis should be individualized and based on a composite of these parameters. PMID:15732286

  6. Validation of EORTC Prognostic Factors for Adults With Low-Grade Glioma: A Report Using Intergroup 86-72-51

    SciTech Connect

    Daniels, Thomas B.; Brown, Paul D.; Felten, Sara J.; Wu, Wenting; Buckner, Jan C.; Arusell, Robert M.; Curran, Walter J.; Abrams, Ross A.; Schiff, David; Shaw, Edward G.

    2011-09-01

    Purpose: A prognostic index for survival was constructed and validated from patient data from two European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) radiation trials for low-grade glioma (LGG). We sought to independently validate this prognostic index with a separate prospectively collected data set (Intergroup 86-72-51). Methods and Materials: Two hundred three patients were treated in a North Central Cancer Treatment Group-led trial that randomized patients with supratentorial LGG to 50.4 or 64.8 Gy. Risk factors from the EORTC prognostic index were analyzed for prognostic value: histology, tumor size, neurologic deficit, age, and tumor crossing the midline. The high-risk group was defined as patients with more than two risk factors. In addition, the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) score, extent of surgical resection, and 1p19q status were also analyzed for prognostic value. Results: On univariate analysis, the following were statistically significant (p < 0.05) detrimental factors for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS): astrocytoma histology, tumor size, and less than total resection. A Mini Mental Status Examination score of more than 26 was a favorable prognostic factor. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size and MMSE score were significant predictors of OS whereas tumor size, astrocytoma histology, and MMSE score were significant predictors of PFS. Analyzing by the EORTC risk groups, we found that the low-risk group had significantly better median OS (10.8 years vs. 3.9 years, p < 0.0001) and PFS (6.2 years vs. 1.9 years, p < 0.0001) than the high-risk group. The 1p19q status was available in 66 patients. Co-deletion of 1p19q was a favorable prognostic factor for OS vs. one or no deletion (median OS, 12.6 years vs. 7.2 years; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Although the low-risk group as defined by EORTC criteria had a superior PFS and OS to the high-risk group, this is primarily because of the influence of

  7. Prognostic Analysis System and Methods of Operation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacKey, Ryan M. E. (Inventor); Sneddon, Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A prognostic analysis system and methods of operating the system are provided. In particular, a prognostic analysis system for the analysis of physical system health applicable to mechanical, electrical, chemical and optical systems and methods of operating the system are described herein.

  8. Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, I.

    2014-01-01

    Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

  9. Automated Essay Scoring versus Human Scoring: A Comparative Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Jinhao; Brown, Michelle Stallone

    2007-01-01

    The current research was conducted to investigate the validity of automated essay scoring (AES) by comparing group mean scores assigned by an AES tool, IntelliMetric [TM] and human raters. Data collection included administering the Texas version of the WriterPlacer "Plus" test and obtaining scores assigned by IntelliMetric [TM] and by human…

  10. Maxillofacial trauma scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Sahni, Vaibhav

    2016-07-01

    The changing complexity of maxillofacial fractures in recent years has created a situation where classical systems of classification of maxillofacial injuries fall short of defining trauma particularly that observed with high-velocity collisions where more than one region of the maxillofacial skeleton is affected. Trauma scoring systems designed specifically for the maxillofacial region are aimed to provide a more accurate assessment of the injury, its prognosis, the possible treatment outcomes, economics, length of hospital stay, and triage. The evolution and logic of such systems along with their merits and demerits are discussed. The author also proposes a new system to aid users in quickly and methodically choosing the system best suited to their needs without having to study a plethora of literature available in order to isolate their choice. PMID:26971084

  11. Fingerprinting of music scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irons, Jonathan; Schmucker, Martin

    2004-06-01

    Publishers of sheet music are generally reluctant in distributing their content via the Internet. Although online sheet music distribution's advantages are numerous the potential risk of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) infringement, e.g. illegal online distributions, disables any innovation propensity. While active protection techniques only deter external risk factors, additional technology is necessary to adequately treat further risk factors. For several media types including music scores watermarking technology has been developed, which ebeds information in data by suitable data modifications. Furthermore, fingerprinting or perceptual hasing methods have been developed and are being applied especially for audio. These methods allow the identification of content without prior modifications. In this article we motivate the development of watermarking and fingerprinting technologies for sheet music. Outgoing from potential limitations of watermarking methods we explain why fingerprinting methods are important for sheet music and address potential applications. Finally we introduce a condept for fingerprinting of sheet music.

  12. Acute pancreatitis: prognostic value of CT

    SciTech Connect

    Balthazar, E.J.; Ranson, J.H.C.; Naidich, D.P.; Megibow, A.J.; Caccavale, R.; Cooper, M.M.

    1985-09-01

    In 83 patients with acute pancreatitis, the initial computed tomographic (CT) examinations were classified by degree of disease severity (grades A-E) and were correlated with the clinical follow-up, objective prognostic signs, and complications and death. The length of hospitalization correlated well with the severity of the initial CT findings. Abscesses occurred in 21.6% of the entire group, compared with 60.0% of grade E patients. Pleural effusions were also more common in grade E patients. Abscesses were seen in 80.0% of patients with six to eight prognostic signs, compared with 12.5% of those with zero to two. The use of prognostic signs with initial CT findings results in improved prognostic accuracy. Early CT examination of patients with acute pancreatitis is a useful prognostic indicator of morbidity and mortality.

  13. Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

    2015-01-01

    Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

  14. Dyspnea as a Prognostic Factor in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Wooho; Lee, Jong Min; Ha, Jick Hwan; Yeo, Chang Dong; Kang, Hyeon Hui; Rhee, Chin Kook; Moon, Hwa Sik

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To investigate associations between dyspnea and clinical outcomes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods From 2001 to 2014, we retrospectively reviewed the prospective lung cancer database of St. Paul's Hospital at the Catholic University of Korea. We enrolled patients with NSCLC and evaluated symptoms of dyspnea using modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scores. Also, we estimated pulmonary functions and analyzed survival data. Results In total, 457 NSCLC patients were enrolled, and 259 (56.7%) had dyspnea. Among those with dyspnea and whose mMRC scores were available (109 patients had no mMRC score), 85 (56.6%) patients had an mMRC score <2, while 65 (43.3%) had an mMRC score ≥2. Significant decreased pulmonary functions were observed in patients with dyspnea. In multivariate analysis, aging, poor performance status, advanced stage, low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (%), and an mMRC score ≥2 were found to be significant prognostic factors for patient survival. Conclusion Dyspnea could be a significant prognostic factor in patients with NSCLC. PMID:27401635

  15. Olympic Scoring of English Compositions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Follman, John; Panther, Edward

    1974-01-01

    Examines empirically the efficacy of utilizing Olympic diving and gymnastic scoring systems for grading graduate students' English compositions. Results indicated that such scoring rules do not produce ratings different in reliability or in level from conventional letter grades. (ED)

  16. Clinical characteristics and prognostic analysis of Chinese patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Ke, Xiaoyan; Wang, Jing; Gao, Zifen; Zhao, Lingzhi; Li, Min; Jing, Hongmei; Wang, Jijun; Zhao, Wei; Gilbert, Heather; Yang, Xiao-Feng

    2010-01-15

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common type of lymphoma in adults. As it is a highly heterogenous disease, many studies have focused on finding useful prognostic factors to help guide therapy. In this report, we examine several biological markers in 83 patients with DLBCL enrolled in our hospital, including cell origin, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and international prognostic index (IPI), in order to find the best combination of prognostic factors. We also examined whether DLBCL has a significant geographic difference, since several studies have suggested that the prevalence and potential etiological factors of lymphomas in China may be different from those in other countries. Our results demonstrate that: (1) patients in China have higher extranodal tissue involvement and different extranodal organ distribution than patients reported from other countries; (2) Chinese patients have higher rates of germinal center (GC) cell origin; and (3) among nine prognostic variables, lower IPI scores, GC cell origin determined by immunohistochemical staining, and no more than 1.5 times of normal levels of LDH are statistically significant good prognostic factors in Chinese patients with DLBCL, whereas age at the time of diagnosis, clinical stage, beta(2)-microglobulin levels, extranodal tissue involvement, and expression levels of Bcl-6 protein were not useful in determining prognosis. PMID:19819170

  17. A new prognostic index of severity of intellectual disabilities in Cornelia de Lange syndrome.

    PubMed

    Cereda, Anna; Mariani, Milena; Rebora, Paola; Sajeva, Anna; Ajmone, Paola Francesca; Gervasini, Cristina; Russo, Silvia; Kullmann, Gaia; Valsecchi, Grazia; Selicorni, Angelo

    2016-06-01

    Cornelia de Lange syndrome is a well-known multiple congenital anomalies/intellectual disability syndrome with genetic heterogeneity and wide clinical variability, regarding the severity of both the intellectual disabilities and the physical features, not completely explained by the genotype-phenotype correlations known to date. The aim of the study was the identification of prognostic features, ascertainable precociously in the patient's life, of a better intellectual outcome and the development of a new prognostic index of severity of intellectual disability in CdLS patients. In 66 italian CdLS patients aged 8 years or more, we evaluated the association of the degree of intellectual disability with various clinical parameters ascertainable before 6 months of life and with the molecular data by the application of cumulative regression logistic model. Based on these results and on the previously known genotype-phenotype correlations, we selected seven parameters to be used in a multivariate cumulative regression logistic model to develop a prognostic index of severity of intellectual disability. The probability of a mild ID increases with the reducing final score less than two, the probability of a severe ID increases with the increasing final score more than three. This prognostic index allows to define, precociously in the life of a baby, the probability of a better or worse intellectual outcome in CdLS patients. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27148700

  18. Prognostic factors of whiplash-associated disorders: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M; Verhagen, Arianne P; Bekkering, Geertruida E; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Barnsley, Les; Oostendorp, Rob A B; Hendriks, Erik J M

    2003-07-01

    We present a systematic review of prospective cohort studies. Our aim was to assess prognostic factors associated with functional recovery of patients with whiplash injuries. The failure of some patients to recover following whiplash injury has been linked to a number of prognostic factors. However, there is some inconsistency in the literature and there have been no systematic attempts to analyze the level of evidence for prognostic factors in whiplash recovery. Studies were selected for inclusion following a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the database of the Dutch Institute of Allied Health Professions up until April 2002 and hand searches of the reference lists of retrieved articles. Studies were selected if the objective was to assess prognostic factors associated with recovery; the design was a prospective cohort study; the study population included at least an identifiable subgroup of patients suffering from a whiplash injury; and the paper was a full report published in English, German, French or Dutch. The methodological quality was independently assessed by two reviewers. A study was considered to be of 'high quality' if it satisfied at least 50% of the maximum available quality score. Two independent reviewers extracted data and the association between prognostic factors and functional recovery was calculated in terms of risk estimates. Fifty papers reporting on twenty-nine cohorts were included in the review. Twelve cohorts were considered to be of 'high quality'. Because of the heterogeneity of patient selection, type of prognostic factors and outcome measures, no statistical pooling was able to be performed. Strong evidence was found for high initial pain intensity being an adverse prognostic factor. There was strong evidence that for older age, female gender, high acute psychological response, angular deformity of the neck, rear-end collision, and compensation not being associated with an adverse prognosis. Several physical (e

  19. Comparison of risk-scoring systems in predicting hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

    PubMed Central

    Supsamutchai, Chaiyarat; Wilasrusmee, Chumpon; Lertsithichai, Panuwat; Proprom, Napaphat; Kittur, Dilip S

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity, Portsmouth adjustment (P-POSSUM), the Hardman index and the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) in the prediction of hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. METHODS: Medical charts of 146 AAA patients treated between January 1996 and January 2007 were reviewed. The P-POSSUM, Hardman index and GAS were calculated for each patient. The scores were tested and compared for their discriminatory ability to predict hospital death. RESULTS: Of the 146 patients with ruptured and unruptured AAAs (133 underwent open repair, five underwent extra-anatomical bypass and eight underwent endovascular aneurysm repair), 18 died (12%) after AAA repair. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the GAS, Hardman index and P-POSSUM for predicting hospital mortality were 0.740, 0.730 and 0.886, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the P-POSSUM was significantly higher than those of other scores. CONCLUSION: In the present study, the P-POSSUM was the best predictor of hospital mortality for patients undergoing AAA repair. PMID:22477446

  20. Line Lengths and Starch Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moriarty, Sandra E.

    1986-01-01

    Investigates readability of different line lengths in advertising body copy, hypothesizing a normal curve with lower scores for shorter and longer lines, and scores above the mean for lines in the middle of the distribution. Finds support for lower scores for short lines and some evidence of two optimum line lengths rather than one. (SKC)

  1. Validity of Outcome Prediction Scoring Systems in Korean Patients with Severe Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome Receiving Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Therapy

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Recently, several prognostic scoring systems for patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) have been published. The aim of this study was to validate the established scoring systems for outcome prediction in Korean patients. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 50 patients on ECMO therapy in our center from 2012 to 2014. A calculation of outcome prediction scoring tools was performed and the comparison across various models was conducted. In our study, the overall hospital survival was 46% and successful weaning rate was 58%. The Predicting Death for Severe ARDS on V-V ECMO (PRESERVE) score showed good discrimination of mortality prediction for patients on ECMO with AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.90). The respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II score also showed fair prediction ability with AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.65-0.89) and AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.88), respectively. However, the ECMOnet score failed to predict mortality with AUC of 0.51 (95% CI 0.37-0.66). When evaluating the predictive accuracy according to optimal cut-off point of each scoring system, RESP score had a best specificity of 91.3% and 66.7% of sensitivity, respectively. This study supports the clinical usefulness of the prognostic scoring tools for severe ARDS with ECMO therapy when applying to the Korean patients receiving ECMO. PMID:27247503

  2. Validity of Outcome Prediction Scoring Systems in Korean Patients with Severe Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome Receiving Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Therapy.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seunghyun; Yeo, Hye Ju; Yoon, Seong Hoon; Lee, Seung Eun; Cho, Woo Hyun; Jeon, Doo Soo; Kim, Yun Seong; Son, Bong Soo; Kim, Do Hyung

    2016-06-01

    Recently, several prognostic scoring systems for patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) have been published. The aim of this study was to validate the established scoring systems for outcome prediction in Korean patients. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 50 patients on ECMO therapy in our center from 2012 to 2014. A calculation of outcome prediction scoring tools was performed and the comparison across various models was conducted. In our study, the overall hospital survival was 46% and successful weaning rate was 58%. The Predicting Death for Severe ARDS on V-V ECMO (PRESERVE) score showed good discrimination of mortality prediction for patients on ECMO with AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.90). The respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II score also showed fair prediction ability with AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.65-0.89) and AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.88), respectively. However, the ECMOnet score failed to predict mortality with AUC of 0.51 (95% CI 0.37-0.66). When evaluating the predictive accuracy according to optimal cut-off point of each scoring system, RESP score had a best specificity of 91.3% and 66.7% of sensitivity, respectively. This study supports the clinical usefulness of the prognostic scoring tools for severe ARDS with ECMO therapy when applying to the Korean patients receiving ECMO. PMID:27247503

  3. The sequential organ failure assessment score as a useful predictor for estimating the prognosis of systemic inflammatory response syndrome patients being treated with extracorporeal blood purification.

    PubMed

    Kikuchi, Hiroshi; Maruyama, Hiroki; Omori, Saori; Kazama, Junichiro J; Gejyo, Fumitake

    2003-08-01

    Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients. Extracorporeal blood purification procedures are becoming important for treating these patients. However, the cost of these procedures is high. Therefore, a prognostic marker would be helpful. To establish the reliability of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score as a prognostic indicator, we evaluated daily changes in the SOFA score of 40 SIRS patients who needed blood purification procedures such as continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), endotoxin adsorption, bilirubin adsorption, and/or plasma exchange. Twenty patients survived and 20 died. Although the baseline scores of the two groups (survivors and non-survivors) did not differ, both the maximum value of the SOFA score and the DeltaSOFA score (the difference between the maximum SOFA and baseline SOFA scores) were significantly higher in the non-survivor group. The mortality rate among patients with a maximum SOFA score greater than or equal to 18 or a DeltaSOFA score greater than or equal to 3 was higher than for the rest of the patients. The changes in the SOFA score correlated well with the outcomes of the SIRS patients. The maximum SOFA score and the DeltaSOFA score are therefore likely to be useful prognostic markers. PMID:12887731

  4. Multivariate meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies with multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement.

    PubMed

    Riley, Richard D; Elia, Eleni G; Malin, Gemma; Hemming, Karla; Price, Malcolm P

    2015-07-30

    A prognostic factor is any measure that is associated with the risk of future health outcomes in those with existing disease. Often, the prognostic ability of a factor is evaluated in multiple studies. However, meta-analysis is difficult because primary studies often use different methods of measurement and/or different cut-points to dichotomise continuous factors into 'high' and 'low' groups; selective reporting is also common. We illustrate how multivariate random effects meta-analysis models can accommodate multiple prognostic effect estimates from the same study, relating to multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement. The models account for within-study and between-study correlations, which utilises more information and reduces the impact of unreported cut-points and/or measurement methods in some studies. The applicability of the approach is improved with individual participant data and by assuming a functional relationship between prognostic effect and cut-point to reduce the number of unknown parameters. The models provide important inferential results for each cut-point and method of measurement, including the summary prognostic effect, the between-study variance and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in new populations. Two applications are presented. The first reveals that, in a multivariate meta-analysis using published results, the Apgar score is prognostic of neonatal mortality but effect sizes are smaller at most cut-points than previously thought. In the second, a multivariate meta-analysis of two methods of measurement provides weak evidence that microvessel density is prognostic of mortality in lung cancer, even when individual participant data are available so that a continuous prognostic trend is examined (rather than cut-points). PMID:25924725

  5. Diagnosis-Specific Prognostic Factors, Indexes, and Treatment Outcomes for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Brain Metastases: A Multi-Institutional Analysis of 4,259 Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Sperduto, Paul W.; Chao, Samuel T.; Sneed, Penny K.

    2010-07-01

    Purpose: Controversy endures regarding the optimal treatment of patients with brain metastases (BMs). Debate persists, despite many randomized trials, perhaps because BM patients are a heterogeneous population. The purpose of the present study was to identify significant diagnosis-specific prognostic factors and indexes (Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment [DS-GPA]). Methods and Materials: A retrospective database of 5,067 patients treated for BMs between 1985 and 2007 was generated from 11 institutions. After exclusion of the patients with recurrent BMs or incomplete data, 4,259 patients with newly diagnosed BMs remained eligible for analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses of the prognostic factors and outcomes by primary site and treatment were performed. The significant prognostic factors were determined and used to define the DS-GPA prognostic indexes. The DS-GPA scores were calculated and correlated with the outcomes, stratified by diagnosis and treatment. Results: The significant prognostic factors varied by diagnosis. For non-small-cell lung cancer and small-cell lung cancer, the significant prognostic factors were Karnofsky performance status, age, presence of extracranial metastases, and number of BMs, confirming the original GPA for these diagnoses. For melanoma and renal cell cancer, the significant prognostic factors were Karnofsky performance status and the number of BMs. For breast and gastrointestinal cancer, the only significant prognostic factor was the Karnofsky performance status. Two new DS-GPA indexes were thus designed for breast/gastrointestinal cancer and melanoma/renal cell carcinoma. The median survival by GPA score, diagnosis, and treatment were determined. Conclusion: The prognostic factors for BM patients varied by diagnosis. The original GPA was confirmed for non-small-cell lung cancer and small-cell lung cancer. New DS-GPA indexes were determined for other histologic types and correlated with the outcome, and

  6. P17.05MAGIC MIRROR ON THE WALL, WHICH IS THE SHARPEST ONE OF ALL? EXTERNAL VALIDATION AND COMPARISON OF THREE DIFFERENT SCORES PREDICTING SURVIVAL AFTER REIRRADIATION OF PROGRESSIVE HIGH-GRADE GLIOMAS

    PubMed Central

    Müller, K.; Henke, G.; Compter, I.; Hundsberger, T.; Kortmann, R.D.; Baumert, B.G.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Accurate predictive scores for the survival after salvage-treatment which are based on simple clinical parameters would be beneficial for the management of progressive high-grade gliomas (HGG). However, such scores should not enter clinical practice unless being validated with an independent dataset. Universal validity of a prognostic score is reflected by its capability to discriminate between different prognostic groups and good calibration. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Focusing on reirradiation, we assessed three different prognostic scores suggested by Combs et al., 2013 (Score A), De Vleeschouwer et al., 2012 (Score B) and Carson et al., 2007 (Score C). The scores were based on the following clinical parameters: Score A: age, time between initial radiotherapy and reirradiation and WHO grading; Score B: age, karnofsky performance score, WHO grading and minimal mental score; Score C: KPS, age, tumor location, use of steroids and WHO grading. Validation was performed with an independent dataset containing 175 HGG patients from 4 different institutions in Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands, who all underwent a second course of radiotherapy at disease progression. Discrimination was checked by visual comparison of the respective Kaplan-Meier plots and by calculating the hazard ratios of the better prognostic groups in relation to the worst prognostic group defined by each score. Calibration was assessed generating calibration curves and prediction error curves. RESULTS: Median survival in the validation cohort was 9.2 ± 0.2 months from the start of reirradiation. Each score discriminated well between at least 3 different prognostic groups (good - intermediate -poor). However, scores A and B overestimated survival in the intermediate group, whereas score C tended to underestimate survival in the case of poor prognosis. Score A was most accurate in predicting an individual patient's short-term prognosis (< 10 months). For long-term prognosis (>10 months

  7. Prognostic factors in histiocytosis X.

    PubMed

    Lahey, M E

    1981-01-01

    It is now clear that the prognosis in children with histiocytosis X has improved considerable over the past few years. To be sure, patients with solitary lesions have an excellent prognosis. Whereas the outlook for patients with significant visceral involvement is not as good as those with bone lesions only, the outlook is by no means hopeless, as was once thought. A number of prognostic factors have been reviewed here. The most significant of these factors at the present time would appear to be age of onset of the disease, extent of involvement, the rapidity of progression of the disease, and, in particular, the presence or absence of dysfunction of such crucial organ systems as liver, lung, and hemopoietic system. Further studies of the significance of histologic features and immunologic findings are clearly needed to further our understanding of this disorder. PMID:6972178

  8. An initial assessment of spatial relationships between respiratory cases, soil metal content, air quality and deprivation indicators in Glasgow, Scotland, UK: relevance to the environmental justice agenda.

    PubMed

    Morrison, S; Fordyce, F M; Scott, E Marian

    2014-04-01

    There is growing interest in links between poor health and socio-environmental inequalities (e.g. inferior housing, crime and industrial emissions) under the environmental justice agenda. The current project assessed associations between soil metal content, air pollution (NO2/PM10) and deprivation and health (respiratory case incidence) across Glasgow. This is the first time that both chemical land quality and air pollution have been assessed citywide in the context of deprivation and health for a major UK conurbation. Based on the dataset 'averages' for intermediate geography areas, generalised linear modelling of respiratory cases showed significant associations with overall soil metal concentration (p = 0.0367) and with deprivation (p < 0.0448). Of the individual soil metals, only nickel showed a significant relationship with respiratory cases (p = 0.0056). Whilst these associations could simply represent concordant lower soil metal concentrations and fewer respiratory cases in the rural versus the urban environment, they are interesting given (1) possible contributions from soil to air particulate loading and (2) known associations between airborne metals like nickel and health. This study also demonstrated a statistically significant correlation (-0.213; p < 0.05) between soil metal concentration and deprivation across Glasgow. This highlights the fact that despite numerous regeneration programmes, the legacy of environmental pollution remains in post-industrial areas of Glasgow many decades after heavy industry has declined. Further epidemiological investigations would be required to determine whether there are any causal links between soil quality and population health/well-being. However, the results of this study suggest that poor soil quality warrants greater consideration in future health and socio-environmental inequality assessments. PMID:24203260

  9. [Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: comparison among scores].

    PubMed

    Del Colle, Sara; Rabbia, Franco; Mulatero, Paolo; Veglio, Franco

    2004-09-01

    At present, a correct and thorough risk evaluation represents the best prognostic and therapeutic approach for hypertensive patients. Recent European and American guidelines recommend a global stratification of the cardiovascular risk of hypertensive patients, based on the evaluation of risk factors, organ damage, and the clinical conditions associated with hypertension. A similar approach uses numerical risk scores that transform the percentage risk, calculated from large populations, into absolute values. These scores have been calculated by different research groups and scientific organizations with the aim of better defining the real risk of a given population over time. Many of these risk scores have been conceived by American and European scientific groups on the basis of the epidemiology of different risk variables in the respective populations; in general, north American hypertensives are exposed to a higher cardiovascular risk compared to Europeans and some European countries have a higher risk than others. The present review underlines the pivotal role of a correct risk evaluation of hypertension as reported in the guidelines. We briefly analyze the principal studies on risk scores: we compare the advantages and disadvantages of the different scores, as well as the similarities and differences, in order to demonstrate not only their utility, but also the possible equivalence of the different parameters considered. PMID:15568607

  10. Proliferative activity is a significant prognostic factor in male breast carcinoma.

    PubMed Central

    Pich, A.; Margaria, E.; Chiusa, L.

    1994-01-01

    The proliferative activity of male breast carcinoma has been investigated using the staining of the argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions (AgNORs), the monoclonal antibody against the proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PC10) and the monoclonal antibody MIB-1 in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens from 27 primary male breast carcinomas at diagnosis. A significant correlation was found between survival and AgNOR counts (median of survival 77 months for cases with AgNOR/cell < or = 7.27 but 37 months only for cases with > 7.27 AgNOR/cell; P = 0.001), proliferating cell nuclear antigen scores (median of survival 73 months for cases with proliferating cell nuclear antigen < or = 18.25% versus 41 for cases with proliferating cell nuclear antigen > 18.25%; P = 0.013) and MIB-1 scores (median of survival 73 months for cases with MIB-1 scores < or = 23.5% versus 37 months for cases with MIB-1 scores > 23.5%; P = 0.01). Tumor histological grade was also correlated with prognosis (median of survival 72 months for grade 2 versus 33 months for grade 3 tumors; P = 0.01). Estrogen and progesterone receptors, immunohistochemically detected on paraffin-embedded sections, had no prognostic value. In the multivariate survival analysis, only AgNOR counts (P = 0.007) and tumor size (P = 0.003) had an independent prognostic significance. Our results indicate that methods for assessing the cell proliferation in routinely processed specimens offer significant prognostic information in male breast carcinoma. The finding, together with the lack of prognostic significance for estrogen receptors and progesterone receptors, suggests that male breast carcinoma is biologically different from female breast cancer. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 PMID:7519830

  11. A New Injury Severity Score for Predicting the Length of Hospital Stay in Multiple Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Salehi, Oveis; Tabibzadeh Dezfuli, Seyed Ashkan; Namazi, Seyed Shojaeddin; Dehghan Khalili, Maryam; Saeedi, Morteza

    2016-01-01

    Background: Trauma is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among individuals under 40 and is the third main cause for death throughout the world. Objectives: This study was designed to compare our modified injury scoring systems with the current injury severity score (ISS) from the viewpoint of its predictive value to estimate the duration of hospitalization in trauma patients. Patients and Methods: This analytical cross-sectional study was performed at the general referral trauma center of Bandar-Abbas in southern Iran from March 2009 to March 2010. The study population consisted of all the trauma patients referred to the emergency department (ED). Demographic data, type and severity of injury, duration of admission, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), and revised trauma score (RTS) were recorded. The injury severity score (ISS) and NISS were calculated. The length of hospital stay was recorded during the patients follow-up and compared with ISS, NISS and modified injury scoring systems. Results: Five hundred eleven patients (446 males (87.3%) and 65 females (12.7%)) were enrolled in the study. The mean age was 22 ± 4.2 for males and 29.15 ± 3.8 for females. The modified NISS had a relatively strong correlation with the length of hospitalization (r = 0.79). The formula below explains the length of hospitalization according to MNISS score. Duration of hospitalization was 0.415 + (2.991) MNISS. Duration of hospitalization had a strong correlation with MISS (r = 0.805, R2: 0.65). Duration of hospitalization was 0.113 + (7.915) MISS. Conclusions: This new suggested scale shows a better value to predict patients’ length of hospital stay compared to ISS and NISS. However, future studies with larger sample sizes and more confounding factors such as prehospital procedures, intubation and other procedures during admission, should be designed to examine these scoring systems and confirm the results of our study. PMID:27218048

  12. Preliminary development of a GIS-tool to assess threats to shallow groundwater quality from soil pollutants in Glasgow, UK (GRASP).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dochartaigh, B. É. Ó.; Fordyce, F. M.; Ander, E. L.; Bonsor, H. C.

    2009-04-01

    The protection of groundwater and related surface water quality is a key aspect of the European Union Water Framework Directive and environmental legislation in many countries worldwide. Globally, the protection of urban groundwater resources and related ecosystem services is of growing concern as urbanisation increases. Although urban areas are often where groundwater resources are most in need of protection, there is frequently a lack of information about threats to groundwater quality. Most studies of soil and groundwater contamination, although detailed, are site-specific, and city-wide overviews are generally lacking. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is currently undertaking the Clyde Urban Super-Project (CUSP), delivering multi-disciplinary geoscience products for the Glasgow conurbation. Under this project, a GIS-based prioritisation tool known as GRASP (GRoundwater And Soil Pollutants) has been trialled to aid urban planning and sustainable development by providing a broad-scale assessment of threats to groundwater quality across the conurbation. GRASP identifies areas where shallow groundwater quality is at greatest threat from the leaching and downward movement of potentially harmful metals in the soil. Metal contamination is a known problem in many urban centres including Glasgow, which has a long industrial heritage and associated contamination legacy, notably with respect to Cr. GRASP is based primarily upon an existing British Standard - International Standards Organisation methodology to determine the leaching potential of metals from soils, which has been validated for 11 metals: Al, Fe, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Mn, Pb and Zn (BS-ISO 15175:2004). However, the GRASP tool is innovative as it combines assessments of soil leaching potential with soil metal content data to highlight threats to shallow groundwater quality. The input parameters required for GRASP (soil pH, clay, organic matter, sesquioxide and metal content) are based upon a systematic

  13. An Integrated Approach for Gear Health Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    He, David; Bechhoefer, Eric; Dempsey, Paula; Ma, Jinghua

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated approach for gear health prognostics using particle filters is presented. The presented method effectively addresses the issues in applying particle filters to gear health prognostics by integrating several new components into a particle filter: (1) data mining based techniques to effectively define the degradation state transition and measurement functions using a one-dimensional health index obtained by whitening transform; (2) an unbiased l-step ahead RUL estimator updated with measurement errors. The feasibility of the presented prognostics method is validated using data from a spiral bevel gear case study.

  14. Plasma peptidases as prognostic biomarkers in patients with first-episode psychosis.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Atucha, Ainhoa; Echevarría, Enrique; Larrinaga, Gorka; Gil, Javier; Martínez-Cengotitabengoa, Mónica; González-Pinto, Ana M; Irazusta, Jon; Seco, Jesús

    2015-08-15

    The plasma activity of nine aminopeptidases was monitored over a year in first-episode psychotic patients. We observed significant differences in aminopeptidase B (APB), aminopeptidase N (APN) and dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPPIV), but not in puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase (PSA), prolyl endopeptidase (PEP), cysteine aminopeptidase (Cys-AP), aspartate aminopeptidase (Asp-AP), glutamate aminopeptidase (Glu) or piroglutamate aminopeptidase (PGI) in these patients compared to controls, and also a progressive increase in plasma activity, correlated to changes in scores on clinical scales, Global Assessment of Functioning scale (GAF) and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS), at 1 month of follow-up. At 1 month after diagnosis, the median score obtained by patients on the GAF was negatively associated with the plasma activity of APB and PEP measured at the beginning of the psychotic episode, indicating a role as a negative prognostic factor that can predict psychiatric symptomatology. In the case of HDRS, scores at 1 month after diagnosis were found to be positively associated with the initial plasma activity of DPPIV, APN and PSA, indicating that their initial elevation is a negative prognostic factor that can predict subsequent depressive symptomatology. Taken together, these results suggest a pathophysiological involvement of plasma peptidases and indicate that aminopeptidase activity can predict the course of first-episode psychosis patients, acting as a prognostic indicator. PMID:25997998

  15. Prognostic value of PTEN loss in men with conservatively managed localised prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cuzick, J; Yang, Z H; Fisher, G; Tikishvili, E; Stone, S; Lanchbury, J S; Camacho, N; Merson, S; Brewer, D; Cooper, C S; Clark, J; Berney, D M; Møller, H; Scardino, P; Sangale, Z

    2013-01-01

    Background: The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and difficult to predict. We report on the prognostic value of phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN) loss in a cohort of 675 men with conservatively managed prostate cancer diagnosed by transurethral resection of the prostate. Methods: The PTEN status was assayed by immunohistochemistry (PTEN IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridisation (PTEN FISH). The primary end point was death from prostate cancer. Results: The PTEN IHC loss was observed in 18% cases. This was significantly associated with prostate cancer death in univariate analysis (hazard ratio (HR)=3.51; 95% CI 2.60–4.73; P=3.1 × 10−14). It was highly predictive of prostate cancer death in the 50% of patients with a low risk score based on Gleason score, PSA, Ki-67 and extent of disease (HR=7.4; 95% CI 2.2–24.6; P=0.012) ), but had no prognostic value in the higher risk patients. The PTEN FISH loss was only weakly associated with PTEN IHC loss (κ=0.5). Both PTEN FISH loss and amplification were univariately predictive of death from prostate cancer, but this was not maintained in the multivariate analyses. Conclusion: In low-risk patients, PTEN IHC loss adds prognostic value to Gleason score, PSA, Ki-67 and extent of disease. PMID:23695019

  16. Natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis and prognostic value of cholangiography in a Dutch population

    PubMed Central

    Ponsioen, C Y; Vrouenraets, S M E; Prawirodirdjo, W; Rajaram, R; Rauws, E A J; Mulder, C J J; Reitsma, J B; Heisterkamp, S H; Tytgat, G N J

    2002-01-01

    Background: Median survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) has been estimated to be 12 years. Cholangiography is the gold standard for diagnosis but is rarely used in estimating prognosis. Aims: To assess the natural history of Dutch PSC patients and to evaluate the prognostic value of a cholangiographic classification system. Patients: A total of 174 patients with established PSC attending a university hospital and three teaching hospitals from 1970 to 1999. Methods: Charts were reviewed for validity and time of diagnosis, concurrent inflammatory bowel disease, interventions, liver transplantation, occurrence of cholangiocarcinoma, and death. Follow up data were obtained from the charts and from the attending clinician or family physician. Median follow up was 76 months (range 1–300). The earliest available cholangiography was scored using a radiological classification system for the severity of sclerosis, developed in our institution. Survival curves were computed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cholangiographic staging was used to construct a prognostic model, applying Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results: The estimated median survival from time of diagnosis to death from liver disease or liver transplantation was 18 years. Cholangiocarcinoma was found in 18 (10%) patients. Fourteen patients (8%) underwent liver transplantation. Cholangiographic scoring was inversely correlated with survival. A combination of intrahepatic and extrahepatic scoring, together with age at endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, proved strongly predictive of survival. Conclusions: The observed survival was considerably better than reported in earlier series from Sweden, the UK, and the USA. Classification and staging of cholangiographic abnormalities has prognostic value. PMID:12235081

  17. Making sense of scoring systems in community acquired pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Niederman, Michael S

    2009-04-01

    The site of care decision is one of the most important in the management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Several scoring systems have been developed to predict mortality risk in CAP, and these have been applied to guide physicians about whether patients should be admitted to the hospital or to the intensive care unit (ICU). However, these tools were initially developed to predict mortality risk, and studies have demonstrated that the risk for death does not always equate with need for hospitalization or ICU care. The most widely studied scoring systems are the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 (a modification of the British Thoracic Society rule). Each has advantages and limitations, with the more-complex PSI developed to identify low-mortality risk patients, and the CURB-65, which is simpler, being developed to easily identify more severely ill individuals. No scoring system can replace clinical judgement about the admission decision, and prospective studies have shown that physicians still admit at least 30-60% of low mortality risk patients when using the PSI to guide this decision. Limitations of these prognostic tools include their variable utility in the elderly, and their failure to include certain comorbidities (COPD, immune suppression) and social factors, in their calculations. The need for ICU care is also not well-defined by measuring the PSI or CURB-65, and other tools such as those developed by the Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society (IDSA/ATS) guideline committee and the SMART-COP rule may have greater utility for this purpose. In the future, measurements of serum biomarkers, such as procalcitonin, may augment the information provided by prognostic scoring tools for patients with CAP. PMID:19353770

  18. Prognostic factors for clinical outcomes after rotator cuff repair

    PubMed Central

    Pécora, José Otávio Reggi; Malavolta, Eduardo Angeli; Assunção, Jorge Henrique; Gracitelli, Mauro Emílio Conforto; Martins, João Paulo Sobreiro; Ferreira, Arnaldo Amado

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify prognostic factors of postoperative functional outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective case series evaluating patients undergoing rotator cuff repair, analyzed by the UCLA score (pre and 12-month postoperative) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (preoperative). Patients' intrinsic variables related to the injury and intervention were evaluated. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to determine variables impact on postoperative functional assessment. RESULTS: 131 patients were included. The mean UCLA score increased from 13.17 ± 3.77 to 28.73 ± 6.09 (p<0,001). We obtained 65.7% of good and excellent results. Age (r= 0.232, p= 0.004) and reparability of posterosuperior injuries (r= 0.151, p= 0.043) correlated with the functional assessment at 12 months. After multivariate linear regression analysis, only age was associated (p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The surgical treatment of rotator cuff tears lead to good and excellent results in 65.6% of patients. Age was an independent predictor factor with better clinical outcomes by UCLA score in older patients. Level of Evidence IV, Case Series. PMID:26207092

  19. Local dynamics of heart rate: detection and prognostic implications.

    PubMed

    Moss, Travis J; Lake, Douglas E; Moorman, J Randall

    2014-10-01

    The original observation that reduced heart rate variability (HRV) confers poor prognosis after myocardial infarction has been followed by many studies of heart rate dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that an entropy-based local dynamics measure gave prognostic information in ambulatory patients undergoing 24-h electrocardiography. In this context, entropy is the probability that short templates will find matches in the time series. We studied RR interval time series from 24-h Holter monitors of 1564 consecutive patients over age 39. We generated histograms of the count of templates as a function of the number of templates matches in short RR interval time series, and found characteristic appearance of histograms for atrial fibrillation, sinus rhythm with normal HRV, and sinus rhythm with reduced HRV and premature ventricular contractions (PVCs). We developed statistical models to detect the abnormal dynamic phenotype of reduced HRV with PVCs and fashioned a local dynamics score (LDs) that, after controlling for age, added more prognostic information than other standard risk factors and common HRV metrics, including, to our surprise, the PVC count and the HRV of normal-to-normal intervals. Addition of the LDs to a predictive model using standard risk factors significantly increased the ROC area and the net reclassification improvement was 27%. We conclude that abnormal local dynamics of heart rate confer adverse prognosis in patients undergoing 24-h ambulatory electrocardiography. PMID:25229393

  20. Immune infiltrates are prognostic factors in localized gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

    PubMed

    Rusakiewicz, Sylvie; Semeraro, Michaela; Sarabi, Matthieu; Desbois, Mélanie; Locher, Clara; Mendez, Rosa; Vimond, Nadège; Concha, Angel; Garrido, Federico; Isambert, Nicolas; Chaigneau, Loic; Le Brun-Ly, Valérie; Dubreuil, Patrice; Cremer, Isabelle; Caignard, Anne; Poirier-Colame, Vichnou; Chaba, Kariman; Flament, Caroline; Halama, Niels; Jäger, Dirk; Eggermont, Alexander; Bonvalot, Sylvie; Commo, Frédéric; Terrier, Philippe; Opolon, Paule; Emile, Jean-François; Coindre, Jean-Michel; Kroemer, Guido; Chaput, Nathalie; Le Cesne, Axel; Blay, Jean-Yves; Zitvogel, Laurence

    2013-06-15

    Cancer immunosurveillance relies on effector/memory tumor-infiltrating CD8(+) T cells with a T-helper cell 1 (TH1) profile. Evidence for a natural killer (NK) cell-based control of human malignancies is still largely missing. The KIT tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib mesylate markedly prolongs the survival of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) by direct effects on tumor cells as well as by indirect immunostimulatory effects on T and NK cells. Here, we investigated the prognostic value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) expressing CD3, Foxp3, or NKp46 (NCR1) in a cohort of patients with localized GIST. We found that CD3(+) TIL were highly activated in GIST and were especially enriched in areas of the tumor that conserve class I MHC expression despite imatinib mesylate treatment. High densities of CD3(+) TIL predicted progression-free survival (PFS) in multivariate analyses. Moreover, GIST were infiltrated by a homogeneous subset of cytokine-secreting CD56(bright) (NCAM1) NK cells that accumulated in tumor foci after imatinib mesylate treatment. The density of the NK infiltrate independently predicted PFS and added prognostic information to the Miettinen score, as well as to the KIT mutational status. NK and T lymphocytes preferentially distributed to distinct areas of tumor sections and probably contributed independently to GIST immunosurveillance. These findings encourage the prospective validation of immune biomarkers for optimal risk stratification of patients with GIST. PMID:23592754

  1. Prognostic Factors for Visual Outcome in Traumatic Cataract Patients

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan F.; Zhu, Yu; Wan, Ming G.; Du, Shan S.; Yue, Zhen Z.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the prognostic factors for visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients. Methods. The demographic features of traumatic cataract patients in Central China were studied. The factors that might influence the visual outcome were analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS (ocular trauma score) in predicting VA were calculated. Results. The study enrolled 480 cases. 65.5% of patients achieved VA at >20/60. The factors associated with the final VA were initial VA, injury type, wound location, the way of cataract removal, and IOL implantation. The sensitivities of OTS in predicting the VA at NLP (nonlight perception), LP/HM (light perception/hand motion), and ≥20/40 were 100%. The specificity of OTS to predict the final VA at 1/200-19/200 and 20/200-20/50 was 100%. Conclusion. The prognostic factors were initial VA, injury type, wound location, cataract removal procedure, and the way of IOL implantation. The OTS has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients in long follow-up. PMID:27595014

  2. Prognostic Factors for Visual Outcome in Traumatic Cataract Patients.

    PubMed

    Qi, Ying; Zhang, Yan F; Zhu, Yu; Wan, Ming G; Du, Shan S; Yue, Zhen Z

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the prognostic factors for visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients. Methods. The demographic features of traumatic cataract patients in Central China were studied. The factors that might influence the visual outcome were analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS (ocular trauma score) in predicting VA were calculated. Results. The study enrolled 480 cases. 65.5% of patients achieved VA at >20/60. The factors associated with the final VA were initial VA, injury type, wound location, the way of cataract removal, and IOL implantation. The sensitivities of OTS in predicting the VA at NLP (nonlight perception), LP/HM (light perception/hand motion), and ≥20/40 were 100%. The specificity of OTS to predict the final VA at 1/200-19/200 and 20/200-20/50 was 100%. Conclusion. The prognostic factors were initial VA, injury type, wound location, cataract removal procedure, and the way of IOL implantation. The OTS has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients in long follow-up. PMID:27595014

  3. A prospective study on MRI findings and prognostic factors in athletes with MTSS.

    PubMed

    Moen, M H; Schmikli, S L; Weir, A; Steeneken, V; Stapper, G; de Slegte, R; Tol, J L; Backx, F J G

    2014-02-01

    In medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) bone marrow and periosteal edema of the tibia on the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is frequently reported. The relationship between these MRI findings and recovery has not been previously studied. This prospective study describes MRI findings of 52 athletes with MTSS. Baseline characteristics were recorded and recovery was related to these parameters and MRI findings to examine for prognostic factors. Results showed that 43.5% of the symptomatic legs showed bone marrow or periosteal edema. Absence of periosteal and bone marrow edema on MRI was associated with longer recovery (P = 0.033 and P = 0.013). A clinical scoring system for sports activity (SARS score) was significantly higher in the presence of bone marrow edema (P = 0.027). When clinical scoring systems (SARS score and the Lower Extremity Functional Scale) were combined in a model, time to recovery could be predicted substantially (explaining 54% of variance, P = 0.006). In conclusion, in athletes with MTSS, bone marrow or periosteal edema is seen on MRI in 43,5% of the symptomatic legs. Furthermore, periosteal and bone marrow edema on MRI and clinical scoring systems are prognostic factors. Future studies should focus on MRI findings in symptomatic MTSS and compare these with a matched control group. PMID:22515327

  4. Genome-wide profiling of transfer RNAs and their role as novel prognostic markers for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Krishnan, Preethi; Ghosh, Sunita; Wang, Bo; Heyns, Mieke; Li, Dongping; Mackey, John R; Kovalchuk, Olga; Damaraju, Sambasivarao

    2016-01-01

    Transfer RNAs (tRNAs, key molecules in protein synthesis) have not been investigated as potential prognostic markers in breast cancer (BC), despite early findings of their dysregulation and diagnostic potential. We aim to comprehensively profile tRNAs from breast tissues and to evaluate their role as prognostic markers (Overall Survival, OS and Recurrence Free Survival, RFS). tRNAs were profiled from 11 normal breast and 104 breast tumor tissues using next generation sequencing. We adopted a Case-control (CC) and Case-Only (CO) association study designs. Risk scores constructed from tRNAs were subjected to univariate and multivariate Cox-proportional hazards regression to investigate their prognostic value. Of the 571 tRNAs profiled, 76 were differentially expressed (DE) and three were significant for OS in the CC approach. We identified an additional 11 tRNAs associated with OS and 14 tRNAs as significant for RFS in the CO approach, indicating that CC alone may not capture all discriminatory tRNAs in prognoses. In both the approaches, the risk scores were significant in the multivariate analysis as independent prognostic factors, and patients belonging to high-risk group were associated with poor prognosis. Our results confirmed global up-regulation of tRNAs in BC and identified tRNAs as potential novel prognostic markers for BC. PMID:27604545

  5. Genome-wide profiling of transfer RNAs and their role as novel prognostic markers for breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Krishnan, Preethi; Ghosh, Sunita; Wang, Bo; Heyns, Mieke; Li, Dongping; Mackey, John R.; Kovalchuk, Olga; Damaraju, Sambasivarao

    2016-01-01

    Transfer RNAs (tRNAs, key molecules in protein synthesis) have not been investigated as potential prognostic markers in breast cancer (BC), despite early findings of their dysregulation and diagnostic potential. We aim to comprehensively profile tRNAs from breast tissues and to evaluate their role as prognostic markers (Overall Survival, OS and Recurrence Free Survival, RFS). tRNAs were profiled from 11 normal breast and 104 breast tumor tissues using next generation sequencing. We adopted a Case-control (CC) and Case-Only (CO) association study designs. Risk scores constructed from tRNAs were subjected to univariate and multivariate Cox-proportional hazards regression to investigate their prognostic value. Of the 571 tRNAs profiled, 76 were differentially expressed (DE) and three were significant for OS in the CC approach. We identified an additional 11 tRNAs associated with OS and 14 tRNAs as significant for RFS in the CO approach, indicating that CC alone may not capture all discriminatory tRNAs in prognoses. In both the approaches, the risk scores were significant in the multivariate analysis as independent prognostic factors, and patients belonging to high-risk group were associated with poor prognosis. Our results confirmed global up-regulation of tRNAs in BC and identified tRNAs as potential novel prognostic markers for BC. PMID:27604545

  6. ‘At-risk’ places: inequities in the distribution of environmental stressors and prescription rates of mental health medications in Glasgow, Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maantay, Juliana; Maroko, Andrew

    2015-11-01

    Using geospatial analytical methods, this study examines the association between one aspect of the built environment, namely, the concentration of vacant and derelict land (VDL), and the prevalence of mental health disorders (using the proxy variable of mental health medication prescription rates) in Glasgow, Scotland. This study builds on our previous research, which demonstrated the spatial correspondence between the locations of VDL in Glasgow and several physical health outcomes. Numerous studies of other locales have found similar correspondence between different elements of the built environment and various health outcomes. This is the first study of its kind to look at the spatial concentration of vacant and derelict land in relation to mental health, socio-economic indicators, environmental justice, and health inequities. The findings of this study demonstrate an inequity with respect to the distribution of vacant and derelict land, as confirmed by Pearson correlations between VDL density and deprivation (r = .521, p < .001). This suggests that many deprived communities are disproportionately burdened with environmental impacts and psycho-social stressors associated with this land use. Regression analyses show a significant positive association between the proportion of the population who were prescribed medication for anxiety, depression, or psychosis and the density of vacant and derelict land while adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics. This indicates that areas with higher VDL densities tend to exhibit higher rates of mental health issues. Based on these findings, strategies for constructive re-use of VDL are proposed.

  7. Retrospective analysis of molecular scores for the prediction of distant recurrence according to baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Sestak, Ivana; Dowsett, Mitch; Ferree, Sean; Baehner, Frederick L; Cuzick, Jack

    2016-08-01

    Clinical variables and several gene signature profiles have been investigated for the prediction of (distant) recurrence in several trials. These molecular markers are significantly correlated with overall and late distant recurrences. Here, we retrospectively explore whether age and body mass index (BMI) affect the prediction of these molecular scores for distant recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the transATAC trial. 940 postmenopausal women for whom the Clinical Treatment Score (CTS), immunohistochemical markers (IHC4), Oncotype Recurrence Score (RS), and the Prosigna Risk of Recurrence Score (ROR) were available were included in this retrospective analysis. Conventional BMI groups were used (N = 865), and age was split into equal tertiles (N = 940). Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the effect of a molecular score for the prediction of distant recurrence according to BMI and age groups. In both the univariate and bivariate analyses, the effect size of the IHC4 and RS was strongest in women aged 59.8 years or younger. Trends tests for age were significant for the IHC4 and RS, but not for the CTS and ROR, for which most prognostic information was added in women aged 60 years or older. The CTS and ROR scores added significant prognostic information in all three BMI groups. In both the univariate and bivariate analyses, the IHC4 provided the most prognostic information in women with a BMI lower than 25 kg/m(2), whereas the RS did not add prognostic information for distant recurrence in women with a BMI of 30 kg/m(2) or above. Molecular scores are increasingly used in women with breast cancer to assess recurrence risk. We have shown that the effect size of the molecular scores is significantly different across age groups, but not across BMI groups. The results from this retrospective analysis may be incorporated in the identification of women who may benefit most from the use of these

  8. Assessing the influence of treating therapist and patient prognostic factors on recovery from axial pain

    PubMed Central

    Simon, Corey B; Stryker, Sandra E; George, Steven Z

    2013-01-01

    Background: Limited research exists regarding the influence of a treating physical therapist on patient recovery (deemed therapist effects). Recent randomized clinical trials data provide an indication of small therapist effects for manual therapy; however, the extent to which therapist effects exist in the average outpatient facility is not clear. Moreover, patient-related prognostic factors, like fear-avoidance or pain duration, are important to consider since these may also influence the extent of therapist effects. Objective: To assess therapist effects and the influence of patient prognostic factors on recovery from axial pain in an outpatient orthopedic physical therapy facility. Methods: Clinical data were collected from consecutive patients with musculoskeletal neck and low back pain. Patient outcomes included pain intensity (visual analog scale) and functional measure (CareConnections functional outcomes index) scores. Therapist effects estimates and the influence of intake fear-avoidance (fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire) and pain duration (days) were examined using multilevel linear or regression modeling. Results: A total of 258 patients (160 females; mean age 46.4±14.9 years) completed physical therapy and the required outcome measures. Five physical therapists (1–13 years of experience, mean 5.8 years) provided treatment. Therapists effects did not exist for discharge pain intensity or function after accounting for intake scores (P > 0.05). Further, therapist experience did not influence patient outcomes. Patient prognostic factors of fear-avoidance and pain duration did not influence therapists effects on the same patient outcome measures (P > 0.05). Discussion: Preliminary findings suggest that there are no major differences in patient outcome based on either the individual therapist (therapist effect) or therapist experience in this type of PT setting. Established prognostic factors had no influence on therapist effects for this cohort

  9. Automated Essay Scoring versus Human Scoring: A Correlational Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Jinhao; Brown, Michelle Stallone

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to analyze the relationship between automated essay scoring (AES) and human scoring in order to determine the validity and usefulness of AES for large-scale placement tests. Specifically, a correlational research design was used to examine the correlations between AES performance and human raters' performance.…

  10. Prognostic Score-Based Difference-in-Differences Strategy for Multilevel Multi-Cohort Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Guanglei

    2013-01-01

    When using time series accountability data to evaluate system-wide education policies, concurrent changes often pose threats to internal validity. The standard difference-in-differences (DID) method resorts to a non-equivalent comparison group whose average outcome change is due to such confounding. This strategy relies on the strong assumption…

  11. Making the most of your prognostic factors: presenting a more accurate survival model for breast cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Knorr, K L; Hilsenbeck, S G; Wenger, C R; Pounds, G; Oldaker, T; Vendely, P; Pandian, M R; Harrington, D; Clark, G M

    1992-01-01

    Determining an appropriate level of adjuvant therapy is one of the most difficult facets of treating breast cancer patients. Although the myriad of prognostic factors aid in this decision, often they give conflicting reports of a patient's prognosis. What we need is a survival model which can properly utilize the information contained in these factors and give an accurate, reliable account of the patient's probability of recurrence. We also need a method of evaluating these models' predictive ability instead of simply measuring goodness-of-fit, as is currently done. Often, prognostic factors are broken into two categories such as positive or negative. But this dichotomization may hide valuable prognostic information. We investigated whether continuous representations of factors, including standard transformations--logarithmic, square root, categorical, and smoothers--might more accurately estimate the underlying relationship between each factor and survival. We chose the logistic regression model, a special case of the commonly used Cox model, to test our hypothesis. The model containing continuous transformed factors fit the data more closely than the model containing the traditional dichotomized factors. In order to appropriately evaluate these models, we introduce three predictive validity statistics--the Calibration score, the Overall Calibration score, and the Brier score--designed to assess the model's accuracy and reliability. These standardized scores showed the transformed factors predicted three year survival accurately and reliably. The scores can also be used to assess models or compare across studies. PMID:1391991

  12. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Metric Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cornhill, Dennis; Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar

    2013-01-01

    This document outlines a set of metrics for evaluating the diagnostic and prognostic schemes developed for the Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR), a system-level reasoner that encompasses the multiple levels of large, complex systems such as those for aircraft and spacecraft. VIPR health managers are organized hierarchically and operate together to derive diagnostic and prognostic inferences from symptoms and conditions reported by a set of diagnostic and prognostic monitors. For layered reasoners such as VIPR, the overall performance cannot be evaluated by metrics solely directed toward timely detection and accuracy of estimation of the faults in individual components. Among other factors, overall vehicle reasoner performance is governed by the effectiveness of the communication schemes between monitors and reasoners in the architecture, and the ability to propagate and fuse relevant information to make accurate, consistent, and timely predictions at different levels of the reasoner hierarchy. We outline an extended set of diagnostic and prognostics metrics that can be broadly categorized as evaluation measures for diagnostic coverage, prognostic coverage, accuracy of inferences, latency in making inferences, computational cost, and sensitivity to different fault and degradation conditions. We report metrics from Monte Carlo experiments using two variations of an aircraft reference model that supported both flat and hierarchical reasoning.

  13. Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few. The research community has used a variety of metrics largely based on convenience and their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a standardized approach to compare different efforts. This paper presents several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics that were recently introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. These metrics have the capability of incorporating probabilistic uncertainty estimates from prognostic algorithms. In addition to quantitative assessment they also offer a comprehensive visual perspective that can be used in designing the prognostic system. Several methods are suggested to customize these metrics for different applications. Guidelines are provided to help choose one method over another based on distribution characteristics. Various issues faced by prognostics and its performance evaluation are discussed followed by a formal notational framework to help standardize subsequent developments.

  14. On Applying the Prognostic Performance Metrics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prognostics performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. As prognostics technology matures and more sophisticated methods for prognostic uncertainty management are developed, a standardized methodology for performance evaluation becomes extremely important to guide improvement efforts in a constructive manner. This paper is in continuation of previous efforts where several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics were introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. Several shortcomings identified, while applying these metrics to a variety of real applications, are also summarized along with discussions that attempt to alleviate these problems. Further, these metrics have been enhanced to include the capability of incorporating probability distribution information from prognostic algorithms as opposed to evaluation based on point estimates only. Several methods have been suggested and guidelines have been provided to help choose one method over another based on probability distribution characteristics. These approaches also offer a convenient and intuitive visualization of algorithm performance with respect to some of these new metrics like prognostic horizon and alpha-lambda performance, and also quantify the corresponding performance while incorporating the uncertainty information.

  15. Assessment of published models and prognostic variables in epithelial ovarian cancer at Mayo Clinic

    PubMed Central

    Hendrickson, Andrea Wahner; Hawthorne, Kieran M.; Goode, Ellen L.; Kalli, Kimberly R.; Goergen, Krista M.; Bakkum-Gamez, Jamie N.; Cliby, William A.; Keeney, Gary L.; Visscher, Dan W.; Tarabishy, Yaman; Oberg, Ann L.; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Maurer, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is an aggressive disease in which first line therapy consists of a surgical staging/debulking procedure and platinum based chemotherapy. There is significant interest in clinically applicable, easy to use prognostic tools to estimate risk of recurrence and overall survival. In this study we used a large prospectively collected cohort of women with EOC to validate currently published models and assess prognostic variables. Methods Women with invasive ovarian, peritoneal, or fallopian tube cancer diagnosed between 2000-2011 and prospectively enrolled into the Mayo Clinic Ovarian Cancer registry were identified. Demographics and known prognostic markers as well as epidemiologic exposure variables were abstracted from the medical record and collected via questionnaire. Six previously published models of overall and recurrence-free survival were assessed for external validity. In addition, predictors of outcome were assessed in our dataset. Results Previously published models validated with a range of c-statistics (0.587-0.827), though application of models containing variables not part of routine practice were somewhat limited by missing data; utilization of all applicable models and comparison of results is suggested. Examination of prognostic variables identified only the presence of ascites and ASA score to be independent predictors of prognosis in our dataset, albeit with marginal gain in prognostic information, after accounting for stage and debulking. Conclusions Existing prognostic models for newly diagnosed EOC showed acceptable calibration in our cohort for clinical application. However, modeling of prospective variables in our dataset reiterates that stage and debulking remain the most important predictors of prognosis in this setting. PMID:25620544

  16. Bone Scan Index as a prognostic imaging biomarker during androgen deprivation therapy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Bone Scan Index (BSI) is a quantitative measurement of tumour burden in the skeleton calculated from bone scan images. When analysed at the time of diagnosis, it has been shown to provide prognostic information on survival in men with metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of BSI during androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods Prostate cancer patients who were at high risk of a poor outcome and who had undergone bone scan at the time of diagnosis and during ADT were recruited from two university hospitals for a retrospective study. BSI at baseline and follow-up were calculated using an automated software package (EXINIbonebsi). Associations between BSI, other prognostic biomarkers and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results One hundred forty-six PCa patients were included in the study. A total of 102 patient deaths were registered, with a median survival time after the follow-up bone scan of 2.4 years (interquartile range (IQR) =0.8 to 4.4). Both at baseline and during ADT, BSI was significantly associated with OS in univariate and multivariate analyses. When BSI was added to a prognostic base model including age, prostate-specific antigen, clinical tumour stage and Gleason score, the concordance index increased from 0.73 to 0.77 (p =0.0005) at baseline and from 0.77 to 0.82 (p <0.0001) during ADT. Conclusions Automated BSI during ADT is an independent prognostic indicator of OS in PCa patients with bone metastasis. It represents an emerging imaging biomarker that can be used in a prognostic model for risk stratification of PCa patients at the time of diagnosis and at later stages of the disease. BSI could then help physicians identify patients who could benefit from more aggressive therapies. PMID:25386390

  17. Prognostic and Predictive Model for Stage II Colon Cancer Patients With Nonemergent Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Chun-Dong; Wang, Ji-Nan; Sui, Bai-Qiang; Zeng, Yong-Ji; Chen, Jun-Qing; Dai, Dong-Qiu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract No ideal prognostic model has been applied to clearly identify which suitable high-risk stage II colon cancer patients with negative margins undergoing nonemergent surgery should receive adjuvant chemotherapy routinely. Clinicopathologic and prognostic data of 333 stage II colon cancer patients who underwent D2 or D3 lymphadenectomy during nonemergent surgery were retrospectively analyzed. Four pathologically determined factors, including adjacent organ involvement (RR 2.831, P = 0.001), histologic differentiation (RR 2.151, P = 0.009), lymphovascular invasion (RR 4.043, P < 0.001), and number of lymph nodes retrieved (RR 2.161, P = 0.011), were identified as independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis. Importantly, a simple cumulative scoring system clearly categorizing prognostic risk groups was generated: risk score = ∑ coefficient’ × status (AOI + histological differentiated + lymphovascular invasion + LNs retrieved). Our new prognostic model may provide valuable information on the impact of lymphovascular invasion, as well as powerfully and reliably predicting prognosis and recurrence for this particular cohort of patients. This model may identify suitable patients with an R0 resection who should receive routine postoperative adjuvant therapy and may help clinicians to facilitate individualized treatment. In this study, we aim to provide an ideal and quantifiable method for clinical decision making in the nonemergent surgical treatment of stage II colon cancer. Our prognostic and predictive model should be applied in multicenter, prospective studies with large sample sizes, in order to obtain a more reliable clinical recommendation. PMID:26735527

  18. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in adult respiratory failure: Scores for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hsin, Chun-Hsien; Wu, Meng-Yu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Kuo-Chin; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-06-01

    × (immunocompromised status). Compared with the 3 scores, the institutional model had a significantly higher AUROC (0.779; P < 0.001). The 3 published scores provide valuable information about the poor prognostic factors for adult respiratory ECMO. Among the score parameters, duration of mechanical ventilation, immunocompromised status, and severity of organ dysfunction may be the most important prognostic factors of VV-ECMO used for adult respiratory failure. PMID:27336901

  19. External validation of a web-based prognostic tool for predicting survival for patients in hospice care.

    PubMed

    Miladinovic, Branko; Mhaskar, Rahul; Kumar, Ambuj; Kim, Sehwan; Schonwetter, Ronald; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostat is an interactive Web-based prognostic tool for estimating hospice patient survival based on a patient's Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) score, age, gender, and cancer status. The tool was developed using data from 5,893 palliative care patients, which was collected at the Victoria Hospice in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, beginning in 1994. This study externally validates Prognostat with a retrospective cohort of 590 hospice patients at LifePath Hospice and Palliative Care in Florida, USA. The criteria used to evaluate the prognostic performance were the Brier score, area under the receiver operating curve, discrimination slope, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Though the Kaplan-Meier curves show each PPS level to be distinct and significantly different, the findings reveal low agreement between observed survival in our cohort of patients and survival predicted by the prognostic tool. Before developing a new prognostic model, researchers are encouraged to update survival estimates obtained using Prognostat with the information from their cohort of patients. If it is to be useful to patients and clinicians, Prognostat needs to explicitly report patient risk scores and estimates of baseline survival. PMID:24380212

  20. Prognostic Parameters and Spinal Metastases: A Research Study

    PubMed Central

    Daniel, Jefferson W.; Veiga, José C. E.

    2014-01-01

    Object To identify pre-operative prognostic parameters for survival in patients with spinal epidural neoplastic metastasis when the primary tumour is unknown. Methods This study was a retrospective chart review of patients who underwent surgery for spinal epidural neoplastic metastases between February 1997 and January 2011. The inclusion criteria were as follows: known post-operative survival period, a Karnofsky Performance Score equal to or greater than 30 points and a post-operative neoplastic metastasis histological type. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate post-operative survival, and the Log-Rank test was used for statistical inference. Results A total of 52 patients who underwent 52 surgical procedures were identified. The mean age at the time of spinal surgery was 53.92 years (std. deviation, 19.09). The median survival after surgery was 70 days (95% CI 49.97–90.02), and post-operative mortality occurred within 6 months in 38 (73.07%) patients. Lung cancer, prostate cancer, myeloma and lymphoma, the 4 most common primary tumour types, affected 32 (61.53%) patients. The three identified prognostic parameters were the following: pre-operative walking incapacity (American Spinal Injury Association, A and B), present in 86.53% of the patients (p-value = 0.107); special care dependency (Karnofsky Performance Score, 10–40 points), present in 90.38% of the patients (p-value = 0.322); and vertebral epidural neoplastic metastases that were in contact with the thecal sac (Weinstein-Boriani-Biagini, sector D), present in 94.23% of the patients (p-value = 0.643). When the three secondary prognostic parameters were combined, the mean post-operative survival was 45 days; when at least one was present, the survival was 82 days (p-value = 0.175). Conclusions Walking incapacity, special care dependency and contact between the neoplastic metastases and the thecal sac can help determine the ultimate survival of this patient population and

  1. More than Just Test Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levin, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    Around the world we hear considerable talk about creating world-class schools. Usually the term refers to schools whose students get very high scores on the international comparisons of student achievement such as PISA or TIMSS. The practice of restricting the meaning of exemplary schools to the narrow criterion of achievement scores is usually…

  2. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  3. Improving Test Scores. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walker, Karen

    2003-01-01

    What strategies can improve test scores? According to research done by Amrein and Berliner, who studied 18 states with high stakes testing, their conclusion was that students did not necessarily score higher and often remained at the same level prior to the introduction of the high stakes testing. In other research done by Carnoy and Loeb, their…

  4. Skyrocketing Scores: An Urban Legend

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krashen, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    A new urban legend claims, "As a result of the state dropping bilingual education, test scores in California skyrocketed." Krashen disputes this theory, pointing out that other factors offer more logical explanations of California's recent improvements in SAT-9 scores. He discusses research on the effects of California's Proposition 227, which…

  5. Interpreting Linked Psychomotor Performance Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Looney, Marilyn A.

    2013-01-01

    Given that equating/linking applications are now appearing in kinesiology literature, this article provides an overview of the different types of linked test scores: equated, concordant, and predicted. It also addresses the different types of evidence required to determine whether the scores from two different field tests (measuring the same…

  6. Classification of current scoring functions.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jie; Wang, Renxiao

    2015-03-23

    Scoring functions are a class of computational methods widely applied in structure-based drug design for evaluating protein-ligand interactions. Dozens of scoring functions have been published since the early 1990s. In literature, scoring functions are typically classified as force-field-based, empirical, and knowledge-based. This classification scheme has been quoted for more than a decade and is still repeatedly quoted by some recent publications. Unfortunately, it does not reflect the recent progress in this field. Besides, the naming convention used for describing different types of scoring functions has been somewhat jumbled in literature, which could be confusing for newcomers to this field. Here, we express our viewpoint on an up-to-date classification scheme and appropriate naming convention for current scoring functions. We propose that they can be classified into physics-based methods, empirical scoring functions, knowledge-based potentials, and descriptor-based scoring functions. We also outline the major difference and connections between different categories of scoring functions. PMID:25647463

  7. The Machine Scoring of Writing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCurry, Doug

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an introduction to the kind of computer software that is used to score student writing in some high stakes testing programs, and that is being promoted as a teaching and learning tool to schools. It sketches the state of play with machines for the scoring of writing, and describes how these machines work and what they do.…

  8. High Scores but Low Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Liqun; Neilson, William S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper college admissions are based on test scores and students can exert two types of effort: real learning and exam preparation. The former improves skills but the latter is more effective in raising test scores. In this setting the students with the lowest skills are no longer the ones with the lowest aptitude, but instead are the ones…

  9. Prognostic Disclosures to Children: A Historical Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Sisk, Bryan A.; Bluebond-Langner, Myra; Wiener, Lori; Mack, Jennifer; Wolfe, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Prognostic disclosure to children has perpetually challenged clinicians and parents. In this article, we review the historical literature on prognostic disclosure to children in the United States using cancer as an illness model. Prior to 1948, there was virtually no literature focused on prognostic disclosure to children. As articles began to be published in the 1950s and 1960s, many clinicians and researchers initially recommended a “protective” approach to disclosure, where children were shielded from the harms of bad news. We identified four main arguments in the literature at this time supporting this “protective” approach. By the late 1960s, however, a growing number of clinicians and researchers were recommending a more “open” approach, where children were included in discussions of diagnosis, which at the time was often synonymous with a terminal prognosis. Four different arguments in the literature were used at this time supporting this “open” approach. Then by the late 1980s, the recommended approach to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics shifted largely from “never tell” to “always tell”. In recent years, however, there has been a growing appreciation for the complexity of prognostic disclosure in pediatrics. Current understanding of pediatric disclosure does not lead to simple “black and white” recommendations for disclosure practices. As with most difficult questions, we are left to balance competing factors on a case-by-case basis. We highlight four categories of current considerations related to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics, and we offer several approaches to prognostic disclosure for clinicians who care for these young patients and their families. PMID:27561728

  10. Prognostic Disclosures to Children: A Historical Perspective.

    PubMed

    Sisk, Bryan A; Bluebond-Langner, Myra; Wiener, Lori; Mack, Jennifer; Wolfe, Joanne

    2016-09-01

    Prognostic disclosure to children has perpetually challenged clinicians and parents. In this article, we review the historical literature on prognostic disclosure to children in the United States using cancer as an illness model. Before 1948, there was virtually no literature focused on prognostic disclosure to children. As articles began to be published in the 1950s and 1960s, many clinicians and researchers initially recommended a "protective" approach to disclosure, where children were shielded from the harms of bad news. We identified 4 main arguments in the literature at this time supporting this "protective" approach. By the late 1960s, however, a growing number of clinicians and researchers were recommending a more "open" approach, where children were included in discussions of diagnosis, which at the time was often synonymous with a terminal prognosis. Four different arguments in the literature were used at this time supporting this "open" approach. Then, by the late 1980s, the recommended approach to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics shifted largely from "never tell" to "always tell." In recent years, however, there has been a growing appreciation for the complexity of prognostic disclosure in pediatrics. Current understanding of pediatric disclosure does not lead to simple "black-and-white" recommendations for disclosure practices. As with most difficult questions, we are left to balance competing factors on a case-by-case basis. We highlight 4 categories of current considerations related to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics, and we offer several approaches to prognostic disclosure for clinicians who care for these young patients and their families. PMID:27561728

  11. Does the Surgical Apgar Score Measure Intraoperative Performance?

    PubMed Central

    Regenbogen, Scott E.; Lancaster, R. Todd; Lipsitz, Stuart R.; Greenberg, Caprice C.; Hutter, Matthew M.; Gawande, Atul A.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To evaluate whether Surgical Apgar Scores measure the relationship between intraoperative care and surgical outcomes. Summary Background Data With preoperative risk-adjustment now well-developed, the role of intraoperative performance in surgical outcomes may be considered. We previously derived and validated a ten-point Surgical Apgar Score—based on intraoperative blood loss, heart rate, and blood pressure—that effectively predicts major postoperative complications within 30 days of general and vascular surgery. This study evaluates whether the predictive value of this score comes solely from patients’ preoperative risk, or also measures care in the operating room. Methods Among a systematic sample of 4,119 general and vascular surgery patients at a major academic hospital, we constructed a detailed risk-prediction model including 27 patient-comorbidity and procedure-complexity variables, and computed patients’ propensity to suffer a major postoperative complication. We evaluated the prognostic value of patients’ Surgical Apgar Scores before and after adjustment for this preoperative risk. Results After risk-adjustment, the Surgical Apgar Score remained strongly correlated with postoperative outcomes (p<0.0001). Odds of major complications among average-scoring patients (scores 7–8) were equivalent to preoperative predictions (likelihood ratio (LR) 1.05, 95%CI 0.78–1.41), significantly decreased for those who achieved the best scores of 9–10 (LR 0.52, 95%CI 0.35–0.78), and were significantly poorer for those with low scores—LRs 1.60 (1.12–2.28) for scores 5–6, and 2.80 (1.50–5.21) for scores 0–4. Conclusions Even after accounting for fixed preoperative risk—due to patients’ acute condition, comorbidities and/or operative complexity—the Surgical Apgar Score appears to detect differences in intraoperative management that reduce odds of major complications by half, or increase them by nearly three-fold. PMID:18650644

  12. The prognostic significance of altered cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors in human cancer.

    PubMed

    Tsihlias, J; Kapusta, L; Slingerland, J

    1999-01-01

    Progression through the cell cycle is governed by cyclin-dependent kinases (cdks), whose activity is inhibited by the cdk inhibitors. Cyclins, cdks, and cdk inhibitors are frequently deregulated in cancers. This chapter reviews the prognostic significance of alterations in cdk inhibitors. Loss of p27 protein provides independent prognostic information in breast, prostate, colon, and gastric carcinomas, and immunohistochemical (IHC) staining for p27 may eventually become part of routine histopathologic processing of cancers. Loss of IHC staining for p21 may be prognostic in certain cancers but conflicting results are reported in breast cancer. Reports on homozygous deletion of p16 and p15 genes suggest the value of larger, prospective studies with standardized treatment protocols to definitively establish the prognostic utility of p15/p16 deletions in acute leukemias. Larger trials and the development of a consensus on methods for deletion analysis, IHC staining, and tumor scoring will be needed to move these molecular assays from bench to bedside. PMID:10073286

  13. Construction and analysis of multi-parameter prognostic models for melanoma outcome

    PubMed Central

    Gould Rothberg, Bonnie E.; Rimm, David L.

    2014-01-01

    Summary The outcome of Stage II melanoma is uncertain. Despite that 10-year melanoma-specific survival can approach 50% following curative-intent wide local excision and negative sentinel lymph node biopsy, the adverse risk-benefit ratio of interferon-based adjuvant regimens precludes their use in most patients. The discovery and translation of protein-based prognostic biomarkers into the clinic offers the promise for residual risk stratification of Stage II melanoma patients beyond conventional clinicopathologic criteria to identify an additional subset of patients who, based upon tumor molecular profiles, might also derive benefit from adjuvant regimens. Despite incorporation of Ki-67 assays into clinical practice, systematic review of REMARK-compliant, immunostain-based prognostic biomarker assays in melanoma suggests that residual risk of recurrence might be best explained by a composite score derived from a small panel of proteins representing independent features of melanoma biology. Reflecting this trend, to date, 5 such multi-parameter melanoma prognostic models have been published. Here, we review these 5 models and provide detailed protocols for discovering and validating multi-parameter models including: appropriate cohort recruitment strategies, comprehensive laboratory protocols supporting fully quantitative chromogenic or fluorescent immunostaining platforms, statistical approaches to create composite prognostic indices recommended steps for model validation in independent cohorts. PMID:24258982

  14. Joint NCCTG and NABTC prognostic factors analysis for high-grade recurrent glioma.

    PubMed

    Wu, Wenting; Lamborn, Kathleen R; Buckner, Jan C; Novotny, Paul J; Chang, Susan M; O'Fallon, Judith R; Jaeckle, Kurt A; Prados, Michael D

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine prognostic factors in patients with high-grade recurrent glioma for 3 outcome variables (overall survival, progression-free survival [PFS], and PFS rate 6 months after study registration [PFS6]). Data from 15 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (NCCTG) trials (n = 469, 1980-2004) and 12 North American Brain Tumor Consortium (NABTC) trials (n = 596, 1998-2002) were included. Eighteen prognostic variables were considered including type of treatment center (community/academic) and initial low-grade histology (yes/no). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), Cox proportional hazards, and logistic regression models with bootstrap resampling were used to identify prognostic variables. Longer survival was associated with last known grade (Grade) of III, younger age, ECOG performance score (PS) of 0, shorter time from initial diagnosis (DxTime), and no baseline steroid use. Factors associated with longer PFS were Grade III and shorter DxTime. For patients without temozolomide as part of the treatment regimen, the only factor associated with better PFS6 was Grade III, although DxTime was important in RPA and PS was important in logistic regression. Grade was the most important prognostic factor for all three endpoints regardless of the statistical method used. Other important variables for one or more endpoints included age, PS, and DxTime. Neither type of treatment center nor initial low-grade histology was identified as a major predictor for any endpoint. PMID:20150383

  15. Joint NCCTG and NABTC prognostic factors analysis for high-grade recurrent glioma

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Wenting; Lamborn, Kathleen R.; Buckner, Jan C.; Novotny, Paul J.; Chang, Susan M.; O'Fallon, Judith R.; Jaeckle, Kurt A.; Prados, Michael D.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine prognostic factors in patients with high-grade recurrent glioma for 3 outcome variables (overall survival, progression-free survival [PFS], and PFS rate 6 months after study registration [PFS6]). Data from 15 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (NCCTG) trials (n = 469, 1980–2004) and 12 North American Brain Tumor Consortium (NABTC) trials (n = 596, 1998–2002) were included. Eighteen prognostic variables were considered including type of treatment center (community/academic) and initial low-grade histology (yes/no). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), Cox proportional hazards, and logistic regression models with bootstrap resampling were used to identify prognostic variables. Longer survival was associated with last known grade (Grade) of III, younger age, ECOG performance score (PS) of 0, shorter time from initial diagnosis (DxTime), and no baseline steroid use. Factors associated with longer PFS were Grade III and shorter DxTime. For patients without temozolomide as part of the treatment regimen, the only factor associated with better PFS6 was Grade III, although DxTime was important in RPA and PS was important in logistic regression. Grade was the most important prognostic factor for all three endpoints regardless of the statistical method used. Other important variables for one or more endpoints included age, PS, and DxTime. Neither type of treatment center nor initial low-grade histology was identified as a major predictor for any endpoint. PMID:20150383

  16. Epigenetics Meets Genetics in Acute Myeloid Leukemia: Clinical Impact of a Novel Seven-Gene Score

    PubMed Central

    Marcucci, Guido; Yan, Pearlly; Maharry, Kati; Frankhouser, David; Nicolet, Deedra; Metzeler, Klaus H.; Kohlschmidt, Jessica; Mrózek, Krzysztof; Wu, Yue-Zhong; Bucci, Donna; Curfman, John P.; Whitman, Susan P.; Eisfeld, Ann-Kathrin; Mendler, Jason H.; Schwind, Sebastian; Becker, Heiko; Bär, Constance; Carroll, Andrew J.; Baer, Maria R.; Wetzler, Meir; Carter, Thomas H.; Powell, Bayard L.; Kolitz, Jonathan E.; Byrd, John C.; Plass, Christoph; Garzon, Ramiro; Caligiuri, Michael A.; Stone, Richard M.; Volinia, Stefano; Bundschuh, Ralf; Bloomfield, Clara D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Molecular risk stratification of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is largely based on genetic markers. However, epigenetic changes, including DNA methylation, deregulate gene expression and may also have prognostic impact. We evaluated the clinical relevance of integrating DNA methylation and genetic information in AML. Methods Next-generation sequencing analysis of methylated DNA identified differentially methylated regions (DMRs) associated with prognostic mutations in older (≥ 60 years) cytogenetically normal (CN) patients with AML (n = 134). Genes with promoter DMRs and expression levels significantly associated with outcome were used to compute a prognostic gene expression weighted summary score that was tested and validated in four independent patient sets (n = 355). Results In the training set, we identified seven genes (CD34, RHOC, SCRN1, F2RL1, FAM92A1, MIR155HG, and VWA8) with promoter DMRs and expression associated with overall survival (OS; P ≤ .001). Each gene had high DMR methylation and lower expression, which were associated with better outcome. A weighted summary expression score of the seven gene expression levels was computed. A low score was associated with a higher complete remission (CR) rate and longer disease-free survival and OS (P < .001 for all end points). This was validated in multivariable models and in two younger (< 60 years) and two older independent sets of patients with CN-AML. Considering the seven genes individually, the fewer the genes with high expression, the better the outcome. Younger and older patients with no genes or one gene with high expression had the best outcomes (CR rate, 94% and 87%, respectively; 3-year OS, 80% and 42%, respectively). Conclusion A seven-gene score encompassing epigenetic and genetic prognostic information identifies novel AML subsets that are meaningful for treatment guidance. PMID:24378410

  17. Prospective Cohort Study Evaluating the Prognostic Value of Simple EEG Parameters in Postanoxic Coma.

    PubMed

    Azabou, Eric; Fischer, Catherine; Mauguiere, François; Vaugier, Isabelle; Annane, Djillali; Sharshar, Tarek; Lofaso, Fréderic

    2016-01-01

    We prospectively studied early bedside standard EEG characteristics in 61 acute postanoxic coma patients. Five simple EEG features, namely, isoelectric, discontinuous, nonreactive to intense auditory and nociceptive stimuli, dominant delta frequency, and occurrence of paroxysms were classified yes or no. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of each of these variables for predicting an unfavorable outcome, defined as death, persistent vegetative state, minimally conscious state, or severe neurological disability, as assessed 1 year after coma onset were computed as well as Synek's score. The outcome was unfavorable in 56 (91.8%) patients. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and AUC of nonreactive EEG for predicting an unfavorable outcome were 84%, 80%, 98%, 31%, and 0.82, respectively; and were all very close to the ones of Synek score>3, which were 82%, 80%, 98%, 29%, and 0.81, respectively. Specificities for predicting an unfavorable outcome were 100% for isoelectric, discontinuous, or dominant delta activity EEG. These 3 last features were constantly associated to unfavorable outcome. Absent EEG reactivity strongly predicted an unfavorable outcome in postanoxic coma, and performed as accurate as a Synek score>3. Analyzing characteristics of some simple EEG features may easily help nonneurophysiologist physicians to investigate prognostic issue of postanoxic coma patient. In this study (a) discontinuous, isoelectric, or delta-dominant EEG were constantly associated with unfavorable outcome and (b) nonreactive EEG performed prognostic as accurate as a Synek score>3. PMID:26545818

  18. CD69 is independently prognostic in chronic lymphocytic leukemia: a comprehensive clinical and biological profiling study

    PubMed Central

    Del Poeta, Giovanni; Del Principe, Maria Ilaria; Zucchetto, Antonella; Luciano, Fabrizio; Buccisano, Francesco; Maria Rossi, Francesca; Bruno, Antonio; Biagi, Annalisa; Bulian, Pietro; Maurillo, Luca; Neri, Benedetta; Bomben, Riccardo; Simotti, Cristina; Coletta, Angela Maria; Dal Bo, Michele; de Fabritiis, Paolo; Venditti, Adriano; Gattei, Valter; Amadori, Sergio

    2012-01-01

    Background CD69 is expressed in several hemopoietic cells and is an early activation marker in chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is a clinically heterogeneous disease which needs novel prognostic parameters which can be easily and efficiently managed. Design and Methods We investigated CD69 by flow cytometry in a series of 417 patients affected by chronic lymphocytic leukemia and compared this to other biological and clinical prognosticators. Results CD69 was associated with Rai stages (P=0.00002), β2-microglobulin (P=0.0005) and soluble CD23 (P<0.0001). CD69 and ZAP-70 (P=0.018) or CD38 (P=0.00015) or immunoglobulin variable heavy chain gene mutations (P=0.0005) were also significantly correlated. Clinically, CD69 positive chronic lymphocytic leukemias received chemotherapy more frequently (74%; P<0.0001), and presented a shorter duration of response after fludarabine plus rituximab (P=0.010) as well as shorter progression free survival and overall survival (P<0.0001). CD69 demonstrated true additive prognostic properties, since the CD69+ plus ZAP-70+ or CD38+ or immunoglobulin variable heavy chain gene unmutated patients had the worst progression free survival and overall survival (P<0.0001). Interestingly, low CD69 expression was necessary to correctly prognosticate the longer progression free survival of patients with a low tumor burden of β2-microglobulin (P=0.002), of soluble CD23 (P=0.020), or of Rai stages 0-I (P=0.005). CD69 was confirmed to be an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis of progression free survival (P=0.017) and overall survival (P=0.039). Conclusions Our data indicate that CD69 is significantly correlated with poor clinical and biological prognostic factors and is confirmed to be an independent disease prognosticator. This supports its introduction in a routine laboratory assessment and, possibly, in a prognostic scoring system for chronic lymphocytic leukemia, after an adequate standardization

  19. Phase Angle for Prognostication of Survival in Patients with Advanced Cancer: Preliminary Findings

    PubMed Central

    Hui, David; Bansal, Swati; Morgado, Margarita; Dev, Rony; Chisholm, Gary; Bruera, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Background Accurate survival prediction is essential for decision-making in cancer therapies and care planning. Objective physiologic measures may improve the accuracy of prognostication. In this prospective study, we determined the association of phase angle, hand grip strength, and maximal inspiratory pressure with overall survival in patients with advanced cancer. Methods We enrolled hospitalized patients with advanced cancer who were seen by palliative care for consultation. We collected information on phase angle, hand grip strength, maximal inspiratory pressure and known prognostic factors including Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP), Palliative Prognostic Index, serum albumin and body composition. We conducted univariate and multivariate survival analysis, and examined the correlation between phase angle and other prognostic variables. Results 222 patients were enrolled: average age 55 (range 22–79), female 59%, mean Karnofsky Performance Status 55, and median overall survival 106 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 71–128 days). The median survival for patients with phase angle 2–2.9°, 3–3.9°, 4–4.9°, 5–5.9° and ≥6° was 35, 54, 112, 134 and 220 days, respectively (P=0.001). In multivariate analysis, phase angle (hazard ratio [HR]=0.86 per degree increase; 95% CI 0.74–0.99; P=0.04), PaP (HR=1.07; 95% CI 1.02–1.13, P=0.008), serum albumin (HR=0.67, 95% CI 0.50–0.91; P=0.009), and fat free mass (HR=0.98, CI=0.96–0.99; P=0.02) were significantly associated with survival. Phase angle was only weakly (γ<0.4) associated with other prognostic variables. Conclusions Phase angle was a novel predictor of poor survival, independent of established prognostic factors in the advanced cancer setting. This objective and non-invasive tool may be useful for bedside prognostication. PMID:24899148

  20. The melanoma-specific graded prognostic assessment does not adequately discriminate prognosis in a modern population with brain metastases from malignant melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Wilkins, Anna; Furness, Andrew; W Corbett, Richard; Bloomfield, Adam; Porta, Nuria; Morris, Stephen; Ali, Zohra; Larkin, James; Harrington, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Background: The melanoma-specific graded prognostic assessment (msGPA) assigns patients with brain metastases from malignant melanoma to 1 of 4 prognostic groups. It was largely derived using clinical data from patients treated in the era that preceded the development of newer therapies such as BRAF, MEK and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Therefore, its current relevance to patients diagnosed with brain metastases from malignant melanoma is unclear. This study is an external validation of the msGPA in two temporally distinct British populations. Methods: Performance of the msGPA was assessed in Cohort I (1997–2008, n=231) and Cohort II (2008–2013, n=162) using Kaplan–Meier methods and Harrell's c-index of concordance. Cox regression was used to explore additional factors that may have prognostic relevance. Results: The msGPA does not perform well as a prognostic score outside of the derivation cohort, with suboptimal statistical calibration and discrimination, particularly in those patients with an intermediate prognosis. Extra-cerebral metastases, leptomeningeal disease, age and potential use of novel targeted agents after brain metastases are diagnosed, should be incorporated into future prognostic models. Conclusions: An improved prognostic score is required to underpin high-quality randomised controlled trials in an area with a wide disparity in clinical care. PMID:26484413

  1. A Derivation and Validation Study of an Early Blood Transfusion Needs Score for Severe Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hao; Umejiego, Johnbosco; Robinson, Richard D.; Schrader, Chet D.; Leuck, JoAnna; Barra, Michael; Buca, Stefan; Shedd, Andrew; Bui, Andrew; Zenarosa, Nestor R.

    2016-01-01

    Background There is no existing adequate blood transfusion needs determination tool that Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel can use for prehospital blood transfusion initiation. In this study, a simple and pragmatic prehospital blood transfusion needs scoring system was derived and validated. Methods Local trauma registry data were reviewed retrospectively from 2004 through 2013. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the independent approachable risks associated with early blood transfusion needs in the derivation cohort in which a scoring system was derived. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operational characteristic (AUC) were calculated and compared using both the derivation and validation data. Results A total of 24,303 patients were included with 12,151 patients in the derivation and 12,152 patients in the validation cohorts. Age, penetrating injury, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) were risks predictive of early blood transfusion needs. An early blood transfusion needs score was derived. A score > 5 indicated risk of early blood transfusion need with a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 80%. A sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 80% were also found in the validation study and their AUC showed no statistically significant difference (AUC of the derivation = 0.87 versus AUC of the validation = 0.86, P > 0.05). Conclusions An early blood transfusion scoring system was derived and internally validated to predict severe trauma patients requiring blood transfusion during prehospital or initial emergency department resuscitation. PMID:27429680

  2. Prognostic DNA Methylation Markers for Prostate Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Strand, Siri H.; Orntoft, Torben F.; Sorensen, Karina D.

    2014-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm and the third most common cause of cancer-related death amongst men in the Western world. PC is a clinically highly heterogeneous disease, and distinction between aggressive and indolent disease is a major challenge for the management of PC. Currently, no biomarkers or prognostic tools are able to accurately predict tumor progression at the time of diagnosis. Thus, improved biomarkers for PC prognosis are urgently needed. This review focuses on the prognostic potential of DNA methylation biomarkers for PC. Epigenetic changes are hallmarks of PC and associated with malignant initiation as well as tumor progression. Moreover, DNA methylation is the most frequently studied epigenetic alteration in PC, and the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers for PC has been demonstrated in multiple studies. The most promising methylation marker candidates identified so far include PITX2, C1orf114 (CCDC181) and the GABRE~miR-452~miR-224 locus, in addition to the three-gene signature AOX1/C1orf114/HAPLN3. Several other biomarker candidates have also been investigated, but with less stringent clinical validation and/or conflicting evidence regarding their possible prognostic value available at this time. Here, we review the current evidence for the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers in PC. PMID:25238417

  3. Prognostic DNA methylation markers for prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Strand, Siri H; Orntoft, Torben F; Sorensen, Karina D

    2014-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm and the third most common cause of cancer-related death amongst men in the Western world. PC is a clinically highly heterogeneous disease, and distinction between aggressive and indolent disease is a major challenge for the management of PC. Currently, no biomarkers or prognostic tools are able to accurately predict tumor progression at the time of diagnosis. Thus, improved biomarkers for PC prognosis are urgently needed. This review focuses on the prognostic potential of DNA methylation biomarkers for PC. Epigenetic changes are hallmarks of PC and associated with malignant initiation as well as tumor progression. Moreover, DNA methylation is the most frequently studied epigenetic alteration in PC, and the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers for PC has been demonstrated in multiple studies. The most promising methylation marker candidates identified so far include PITX2, C1orf114 (CCDC181) and the GABRE~miR-452~miR-224 locus, in addition to the three-gene signature AOX1/C1orf114/HAPLN3. Several other biomarker candidates have also been investigated, but with less stringent clinical validation and/or conflicting evidence regarding their possible prognostic value available at this time. Here, we review the current evidence for the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers in PC. PMID:25238417

  4. Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prognostics has taken a center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically four algorithms namely; Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR) are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in different manner and depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, these metrics offer ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized. 1

  5. A Distributed Prognostic Health Management Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bhaskar, Saha; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a generic distributed prognostic health management (PHM) architecture with specific application to the electrical power systems domain. Current state-of-the-art PHM systems are mostly centralized in nature, where all the processing is reliant on a single processor. This can lead to loss of functionality in case of a crash of the central processor or monitor. Furthermore, with increases in the volume of sensor data as well as the complexity of algorithms, traditional centralized systems become unsuitable for successful deployment, and efficient distributed architectures are required. A distributed architecture though, is not effective unless there is an algorithmic framework to take advantage of its unique abilities. The health management paradigm envisaged here incorporates a heterogeneous set of system components monitored by a varied suite of sensors and a particle filtering (PF) framework that has the power and the flexibility to adapt to the different diagnostic and prognostic needs. Both the diagnostic and prognostic tasks are formulated as a particle filtering problem in order to explicitly represent and manage uncertainties; however, typically the complexity of the prognostic routine is higher than the computational power of one computational element ( CE). Individual CEs run diagnostic routines until the system variable being monitored crosses beyond a nominal threshold, upon which it coordinates with other networked CEs to run the prognostic routine in a distributed fashion. Implementation results from a network of distributed embedded devices monitoring a prototypical aircraft electrical power system are presented, where the CEs are Sun Microsystems Small Programmable Object Technology (SPOT) devices.

  6. Excellent reliability for MRI grading and prognostic parameters in acute hamstring injuries

    PubMed Central

    Hamilton, B; Whiteley, R; Almusa, E; Roger, B; Geertsema, C; Tol, Johannes L

    2014-01-01

    Background Categorical grading and other measurable MRI parameters are frequently utilised for predicting the outcome of hamstring injuries. However, the reliability and smallest detectable difference (SDD) have not been previously evaluated. It therefore remains unclear if the variability in previously reported results reflects reporting variation or actual injury status. Methods 25 hamstring injuries were scored by two experienced radiologists using the Peetrons grading and specific prognostic MRI parameters: distance from ischial tuberosity (cm), extent (cranio to caudal, anterior to posterior, medial to lateral; (cm)), maximum cross-sectional area (%), volume (cm3) of the oedema. The interobserver and intraobserver reliability was calculated along with the SDDs for each scale variable. Results There were 3 Grade 0 (12%), 11 grade 1 (44%), 9 grade 2 (36%) and 2 grade 3 (8%) injuries. Cronbach's α values for grading were 1.00 (inter) and 0.96 (intra), respectively. The intraclass correlation coefficients for the prognostic MRI parameters were between 0.77 and 1.0. The SDDs varied between each parameter. Conclusions Excellent interobserver and intraobserver reliability was found for grading and prognostic MRI parameters in acute hamstring injuries. In daily practice and research, we can be confident that scoring hamstring injuries by experienced radiologists is reproducible. The documented SDDs allow meaningful clinical inferences to be made when assessing observed and reported changes in MRI status. PMID:24037670

  7. Differential Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography in Relation to Exercise Electrocardiography in Asymptomatic Subjects

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sang-Eun; Cho, Iksung; Hong, Geu-Ru; Sung, Ji Min; Cho, In-Jeong; Shim, Chi Young; Choi, Byoung Wook; Chung, Namsik

    2015-01-01

    Background To explore the prognostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and exercise electrocardiography (XECG) in asymptomatic subjects. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 812 (59 ± 9 years, 60.8% male) asymptomatic subjects who underwent CCTA and XECG concurrently from 2003 through 2009. Subjects were followed-up for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and revascularization after 90 days from index CCTA. Results The prevalence of occult coronary artery disease (CAD) detected by CCTA was 17.5% and 120 subjects (14.8%) had positive XECG. During a mean follow-up of 37 ± 16 months, nine subjects experienced MACE. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis, only the presence of CAD by CCTA independently predicted future MACE (p = 0.002). Moreover, CAD by CCTA improved the predictive value when added to a clinical risk factor model using the likelihood ratio test (p < 0.001). Notably, the prognostic value of CCTA persisted in the moderate-to-high-risk group as classified by the Duke treadmill score (p = 0.040), but not in the low-risk group (p = 0.991). Conclusion CCTA provides incremental prognostic benefit over and above XECG in an asymptomatic population, especially for those in a moderate-to-high-risk group as classified by the Duke treadmill score. Risk stratification using XECG may prove valuable for identifying asymptomatic subjects who can benefit from CCTA. PMID:26755933

  8. Usefulness of Aquaporin 1 as a Prognostic Marker in a Prospective Cohort of Malignant Mesotheliomas

    PubMed Central

    Driml, Jack; Pulford, Emily; Moffat, David; Karapetis, Christos; Kao, Steven; Griggs, Kim; Henderson, Douglas Warrington; Klebe, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    (1) Background: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an aggressive tumour of the serosal membranes, associated with exposure to asbestos. Survival is generally poor, but prognostication for individual patients is difficult. We recently described Aquaporin 1 (AQP1) as independent prognostic factor in two separate retrospective cohorts of MM patients. Here we assess the usefulness of AQP1 prospectively, and determine the inter-observer agreement in assessing AQP1 scores; (2) Methods: A total of 104 consecutive cases of MM were included. Sufficient tissue for immunohistochemistry was available for 100 cases, and these cases were labelled for AQP1. Labelling was assessed by two pathologists. Complete clinical information and follow up was available for 91 cases; (3) Results: Labelling of ≥50% of tumour cells for AQP indicated improved prognosis in a univariate model (median survival 13 versus 8 months, p = 0.008), but the significance was decreased in a multivariate analysis. Scoring for AQP1 was robust, with an inter-observer kappa value of 0.722, indicating substantial agreement between observers; (4) Conclusion: AQP1 is a useful prognostic marker that can be easily incorporated in existing diagnostic immunohistochemical panels and which can be reliably interpreted by different pathologists. PMID:27376267

  9. Usefulness of Aquaporin 1 as a Prognostic Marker in a Prospective Cohort of Malignant Mesotheliomas.

    PubMed

    Driml, Jack; Pulford, Emily; Moffat, David; Karapetis, Christos; Kao, Steven; Griggs, Kim; Henderson, Douglas Warrington; Klebe, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    (1) BACKGROUND: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an aggressive tumour of the serosal membranes, associated with exposure to asbestos. Survival is generally poor, but prognostication for individual patients is difficult. We recently described Aquaporin 1 (AQP1) as independent prognostic factor in two separate retrospective cohorts of MM patients. Here we assess the usefulness of AQP1 prospectively, and determine the inter-observer agreement in assessing AQP1 scores; (2) METHODS: A total of 104 consecutive cases of MM were included. Sufficient tissue for immunohistochemistry was available for 100 cases, and these cases were labelled for AQP1. Labelling was assessed by two pathologists. Complete clinical information and follow up was available for 91 cases; (3) RESULTS: Labelling of ≥50% of tumour cells for AQP indicated improved prognosis in a univariate model (median survival 13 versus 8 months, p = 0.008), but the significance was decreased in a multivariate analysis. Scoring for AQP1 was robust, with an inter-observer kappa value of 0.722, indicating substantial agreement between observers; (4) CONCLUSION: AQP1 is a useful prognostic marker that can be easily incorporated in existing diagnostic immunohistochemical panels and which can be reliably interpreted by different pathologists. PMID:27376267

  10. Evaluation of Minichromosome Maintenance Protein 7 and c-KIT as Prognostic Markers in Feline Cutaneous Mast Cell Tumours.

    PubMed

    Dobromylskyj, M J; Rasotto, R; Melville, K; Smith, K C; Berlato, D

    2015-11-01

    Mast cell tumours (MCTs) are a common skin tumour in cats, but there is currently no histological grading system or reliable prognostic marker for this species (unlike the situation for dogs). This study utilized a set of 71 feline cutaneous MCTs with known clinical outcomes to assess the potential of various prognostic markers, including the cellular proliferation marker minichromosome maintenance protein (MCM)-7, mitotic index and various KIT labelling characteristics, including KIT positivity, KIT labelling pattern and KIT immunoreactivity score (IS). Of the factors studied, the mitotic index and the KIT labelling pattern were the only features associated significantly with survival times, while the proliferation marker MCM7 and the KIT IS were not. The study also highlights the variability of KIT labelling characteristics between tumours, which may prevent use of this marker as a diagnostic and prognostic tool. PMID:26385324

  11. Identification of prognostic biomarkers for glioblastomas using protein expression profiling

    PubMed Central

    JUNG, YONG; JOO, KYEUNG MIN; SEONG, DONG HO; CHOI, YOON-LA; KONG, DOO-SIK; KIM, YONGHYUN; KIM, MI HYUN; JIN, JUYOUN; SUH, YEON-LIM; SEOL, HO JUN; SHIN, CHUL SOO; LEE, JUNG-IL; KIM, JONG-HYUN; SONG, SANG YONG; NAM, DO-HYUN

    2012-01-01

    A set of proteins reflecting the prognosis of patients have clinical significance since they could be utilized as predictive biomarkers and/or potential therapeutic targets. With the aim of finding novel diagnostic and prognostic markers for glioblastoma (GBM), a tissue microarray (TMA) library consisting of 62 GBMs and 28 GBM-associated normal spots was constructed. Immunohistochemistry against 78 GBM-associated proteins was performed. Expression levels of each protein for each patient were analyzed using an image analysis program and converted to H-score [summation of the intensity grade of staining (0–3) multiplied by the percentage of positive cells corresponding to each grade]. Based on H-score and hierarchical clustering methods, we divided the GBMs into two groups (n=19 and 37) that had significantly different survival lengths (p<0.05). In the two groups, expression of nine proteins (survivin, cyclin E, DCC, TGF-β, CDC25B, histone H1, p-EGFR, p-VEGFR2/3, p16) was significantly changed (q<0.05). Prognosis-predicting potential of these proteins were validated with another independent library of 82 GBM TMAs and a public GBM DNA microarray dataset. In addition, we determined 32 aberrant or mislocalized subcellular protein expression patterns in GBMs compared with relatively normal brain tissues, which could be useful for diagnostic biomarkers of GBM. We therefore suggest that these proteins can be used as predictive biomarkers and/or potential therapeutic targets for GBM. PMID:22179774

  12. Reading Ages and Standardized Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bookbinder, G. E.

    1976-01-01

    Discusses the advantages of and objections to testing children's reading ages and recommends that test results be given for both reading age and percentile levels (rather than standardized scores). (JM)

  13. Formulas for Image Factor Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hakstian, A. Ralph

    1973-01-01

    Formulas are presented in this paper for computing scores associated with factors of G, the image covariance matrix, under three conditions. The subject of the paper is restricted to "pure" image analysis. (Author/NE)

  14. Serum beta-2 microglobulin as a prognostic biomarker in patients with mantle cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Yoo, Changhoon; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Kim, Shin; Huh, Jooryung; Park, Chan-Sik; Park, Chan-Jeong; Lee, Sang-Wook; Suh, Cheolwon

    2016-03-01

    Although serum beta-2 microglobulin (B2M) has been suggested as a prognostic factor for mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), additional data are necessary to confirm its role. Between November 2005 and July 2014, a total of 52 patients with MCL were identified from the database of Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Korea. Pretreatment serum B2M information was available in 50 patients (96%). Overall survival (OS) was compared according to the serum B2M level with a cut-off value of 2.5 mg/L. The median MCL international prognostic index (MIPI) score was 5.84 (range 4.72-7.80), and the median biologic MIPI (MIPI-b) score was 6.27 (4.93-8.47). Pretreatment serum B2M was elevated in 30 patients (60%) and was significantly related to advanced stage (p = 0.02) and high MIPI (p = 0.03) and MIPI-b (p = 0.03) scores. With median follow-up duration of 29.8 months (range 0.8-87.0 months), the median OS was 56.2 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 36.6-75.9 months] in all patients, and serum B2M was significantly associated with OS (p = 0.001). In multivariate analyses adjusted for MIPI or MIPI-b scores and rituximab, elevated serum B2M was significantly associated with poor OS (when adjusting MIPI, hazard ratio = 26.4, 95% CI 2.9-241.3, p = 0.004; when adjusting MIPI-b, hazard ratio = 20.1, 95% CI 2.4-170.1, p = 0.006). Thus, pretreatment serum B2M may be an independent and significant prognostic factor in patients with MCL. PMID:25689467

  15. Prognostic factors for the progression of Parkinson's disease: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Post, Bart; Merkus, Maruschka P; de Haan, Rob J; Speelman, Johannes D

    2007-10-15

    The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize studies that describe the course of Parkinson's disease (PD) and to identify factors that predict change in motor impairment, disability, and quality of life. A literature search was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science limited to the English, French, German, Spanish, and Dutch language. Reports were selected if the study involved subjects with PD, the outcome measures described impairment, disability, or quality of life and follow-up was at least 6 months. All included studies were scored for methodological quality. Data were extracted and summarized in a best evidence synthesis. We screened 1,535 titles and abstracts, of which 27 fulfilled our inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis to quantitatively aggregate progression scores of motor impairment and disability was not possible because of the wide variety of outcome measures used and the heterogeneous study populations. Limited evidence is found for lower UPDRS-ME at baseline, dementia and SE < 70% as prognostic factors for future motor impairment. There is strong evidence for higher age at onset and higher PIGD-score; and limited evidence for higher bradykinesia-score, non-tremor dominant subtype, symmetrical disease at baseline, and depression as prognostic factors for progression of disability. Prognostic factors were identified for impairment and disability. The literature on prognosis in PD is not fulfilling the high methodological standards applied nowadays. There is a need for prospective cohorts of PD patients assembled at a common early point in the disease with long time follow-up. PMID:17595026

  16. [Power and everyday life in a lunatic asylum environment - a case example from Glasgow at the beginning of the 20th century].

    PubMed

    Gründler, Jens

    In this article the focus of analysis lies on power relations in everyday life in one of Glasgow's Pauper Lunatic Asylums at the turn of the twentieth century. Taking a sample of patient case files I examine the daily processes of negotiation between inmates and their relatives, physicians, attendants and nurses as well as the poor law administration. Some cases especially exemplify the complex relationships between the actors. They show which opportunities and boundaries existed for "power brokering" for the more powerless. At the same time these cases illustrate the formal and practical limits of enforcement by doctors and nursing staff. Without turning a blind eve to hierarchies and power imbalances the analysis shows that even in settings like "total institutions" power remains volatile. Even there the more powerful actors have to actualize, seize and prevail on a regular basis. PMID:27501547

  17. An ethnographic study of HIV-related risk practices among Glasgow rent boys and their clients: report of a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Bloor, M; McKeganey, N; Barnard, M

    1990-01-01

    This paper provides an early report of a continuing ethnographic study of male prostitution in Glasgow. Pilot work indicates that rent boy activity may be of considerable importance for the spread of HIV infection. Although there is little evidence of an association between rent boy activity and injecting drug use, rent boys may well be implicated in epidemic spread because many (but not all) of them report unsafe sexual practices. Some boys reported that they engaged in unprotected anal sex both actively (insertor) and passively (insertee). Although the majority of the boys' clients were covert bisexuals--married men seeking occasional, anonymous, male sexual contact--a substantial minority of clients were gay-identified. PMID:2083256

  18. Child–Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Ying; Qi, Xingshun; Guo, Xiaozhong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Child–Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child–Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated. Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child–Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child–Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child–Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child–Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child–Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects. Although Child–Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child–Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified. PMID:26937922

  19. The prognostic value of interim positron emission tomography scan in patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Oki, Yasuhiro; Chuang, Hubert; Chasen, Beth; Jessop, Aaron; Pan, Tinsu; Fanale, Michelle; Dabaja, Bouthaina; Fowler, Nathan; Romaguera, Jorge; Fayad, Luis; Hagemeister, Fredrick; Rodriguez, Maria Alma; Neelapu, Sattva; Samaniego, Felipe; Kwak, Larry; Younes, Anas

    2014-04-01

    The prognostic value of interim positron emission tomography (PET) was evaluated after 2 cycles of doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastin and dacarbazine in classical Hodgkin lymphoma patients (n = 229), based on Deauville criteria. In early stage non-bulky disease, bulky stage II disease, advanced stage low International Prognostic Score (IPS ≤2) and advanced stage (IPS ≥3), 3-year progression-free survival rates in PET2-negative vs. PET2-positive groups were 95·9% vs. 76·9% (P < 0·0018), 83·3% vs. 20·0% (P = 0·017), 77·0% vs. 30·0% (P < 0·001) and 71·0% vs. 44·4%(P = 0·155), respectively. The outcome after positive PET2 was better than previously reported. The results from non-randomized studies of PET2-guided therapy would be valuable with careful interpretation. PMID:24386943

  20. Prognostic Factors in Childhood Leukemia (ALL or AML)

    MedlinePlus

    ... for childhood leukemias Prognostic factors in childhood leukemia (ALL or AML) Certain factors that can affect a ... myelogenous leukemia (AML). Prognostic factors for children with ALL Children with ALL are often divided into risk ...

  1. Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) predicts risk of distant metastases in primary breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Green, Andrew R; Soria, D; Powe, D G; Nolan, C C; Aleskandarany, M; Szász, M A; Tőkés, A M; Ball, G R; Garibaldi, J M; Rakha, E A; Kulka, J; Ellis, I O

    2016-05-01

    The Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) is based on the assessment of biological class combined with established clinicopathologic prognostic variables providing improved patient outcome stratification for breast cancer superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to determine prognostic capability of the NPI+ in predicting risk of development of distant disease. A well-characterised series of 1073 primary early-stage BC cases treated in Nottingham and 251 cases from Budapest were immunohistochemically assessed for cytokeratin (Ck)5/6, Ck18, EGFR, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, HER2, HER3, HER4, Mucin 1 and p53 expression. NPI+ biological class and prognostic scores were assigned using individual algorithms for each biological class incorporating clinicopathologic parameters and investigated in terms of prediction of distant metastases-free survival (MFS). The NPI+ identified distinct prognostic groups (PG) within each molecular class which were predictive of MFS providing improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. NPI+ PGs, between series, were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in luminal A, basal p53 altered and HER2+/ER+ (p > 0.01) tumours. The low-risk groups were similarly validated in luminal B, luminal N, basal p53 normal tumours (p > 0.01). Due to small patient numbers the remaining PGs could not be validated. NPI+ was additionally able to predict a higher risk of metastases at certain distant sites. This study may indicate the NPI+ as a useful tool in predicting the risk of metastases. The NPI+ provides accurate risk stratification allowing improved individualised clinical decision making for breast cancer. PMID:27116185

  2. Prognostic implications of expression of the cell cycle inhibitor protein p27Kip1.

    PubMed

    Cariou, S; Catzavelos, C; Slingerland, J M

    1998-01-01

    Mitogenic and growth inhibitory signals influence the activity of a family of cyclin dependent kinases (cdks). p27 is an important cdk inhibitor, acting in G1 to inhibit cyclin-cdks. As negative growth regulators, the cdk inhibitors may function as tumor suppressors. While the p16 gene plays a tumor suppressor role in cancers, p27 gene mutations have been identified only rarely. While high levels of p27 protein are expressed in normal human mammary epithelium, loss of p27 is frequent and is of independent prognostic significance in breast cancers. Low p27 is also a poor prognostic factor in colon, gastric, esophageal, lung, and prostate carcinomas, and enhanced proteasomal degradation may underlie loss of p27 in tumor cells. Loss of p27 has not been significantly correlated with tumor proliferation in a number of studies and may reflect alterations in differentiation and adhesion-dependent growth regulation germane to oncogenesis and tumor progression. Efforts to confirm the prognostic value of p27 are under way in a number of large breast cancer studies. These studies may also indicate whether loss of p27 in association with other traditional or novel markers has greater prognostic potential than each factor alone. p27 immunostaining is inexpensive and reliable and may become part of the routine histopathologic processing of tumors in the near future. Widespread application of p27 in prognostic testing will require greater uniformity in scoring techniques and determination of the cut off levels which distinguish individuals at high and low risk of cancer recurrence and death. Finally, the greatest utility of p27 may lie in the information it sheds on the biology of aberrant growth regulation in breast cancer and the potential to use this in the generation of novel therapeutic strategies. PMID:10066070

  3. Moderate level of HER2 expression and its prognostic significance in breast cancer with intermediate grade.

    PubMed

    Ignatov, Tanja; Eggemann, Holm; Burger, Elke; Fettke, Franziska; Costa, Serban Dan; Ignatov, Atanas

    2015-06-01

    Overexpression of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) is an important prognostic and predictive marker of response to anti-HER2 therapy in breast cancer. Our goal was to analyze the prognostic significance of moderate expression of HER2 in breast cancer with intermediate differentiation grade. We performed a multicenter retrospective register study of 8494 patients with primary non-metastatic breast cancer admitted between 2000 and 2011 to eight Clinics in Saxony-Anhalt, federal state of Germany. Patients were divided into three groups according to their HER2 score: 4073 were classified as HER2 negative (HER2 0 and 1+), 822 HER2 moderate (HER2 2+/HER2), and 1238 HER2 positive (HER2 3+ or HER2 2+/HER2+). HER2-positive cases were excluded from analysis. Tumors with moderate HER2 (HER2 2+) expression demonstrated an aggressive behavior and worse patient survival compared with HER2 0 and 1+ status. HER2 2+ status was associated with shorter median overall survival (OS) (P < 0.0001) in breast cancer patients with an intermediate grade of differentiation. Comparing low-grade and high-grade tumors, HER2 moderate expression did not significantly influence patient survival. In multivariate analysis after adjustment for other prognostic factors HER2 2+ status remained an unfavorable prognostic factor for OS (HR 1.224, 95 % CI 1.059-1.415, P = 0.006) in breast cancer patients with an intermediate grade of differentiation. HER2 2+ status is an unfavorable prognostic factor regarding the OS of breast cancer patients with intermediate grade of differentiation and could be used to identify patients, who may benefit from adjuvant therapy. PMID:25926338

  4. TP53 Mutational Analysis Enhances the Prognostic Accuracy of IHC4 and PAM50 Assays

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Chen, I-Chiun; Huang, Chiun-Sheng; Hu, Fu-Chang; Kuo, Wen-Hung; Kuo, Kuan-Ting; Wang, Chung-Chieh; Wu, Pei-Fang; Chang, Dwan-Ying; Wang, Ming-Yang; Chang, Chin-Hao; Chen, Wei-Wu; Lu, Yen-Shen; Cheng, Ann-Lii

    2015-01-01

    IHC4 and PAM50 assays have been shown to provide additional prognostic information for patients with early breast cancer. We evaluated whether incorporating TP53 mutation analysis can further enhance their prognostic accuracy. We examined TP53 mutation and the IHC4 score in tumors of 605 patients diagnosed with stage I–III breast cancer at National Taiwan University Hospital (the NTUH cohort). We obtained information regarding TP53 mutation and PAM50 subtypes in 699 tumors from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) cohort. We found that TP53 mutation was significantly associated with high-risk IHC4 group and with luminal B, HER2-enriched, and basal-like subtypes. Despite the strong associations, TP53 mutation independently predicted shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63, P = 0.007) in the NTUH cohort and shorter breast cancer-specific survival (HR = 2.35, P = <0.001) in the METABRIC cohort. TP53 mutational analysis added significant prognostic information in addition to the IHC4 score (∆ LR-χ2 = 8.61, P = 0.002) in the NTUH cohort and the PAM50 subtypes (∆ LR-χ2 = 18.9, P = <0.001) in the METABRIC cohort. We conclude that incorporating TP53 mutation analysis can enhance the prognostic accuracy of the IHC4 and PAM50 assays. PMID:26671300

  5. Prognostic value of health-related quality of life for death risk stratification in patients with unresectable glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Paquette, Brice; Vernerey, Dewi; Chauffert, Bruno; Dabakuyo, Sandrine; Feuvret, Loic; Taillandier, Luc; Frappaz, Didier; Taillia, Hervé; Schott, Roland; Ducray, François; Fabbro, Michel; Tennevet, Isabelle; Ghiringhelli, François; Guillamo, Jean-Sébastien; Durando, Xavier; Castera, Daniel; Frenay, Marc; Campello, Chantal; Dalban, Cécile; Skrzypski, Jérome; Chinot, Olivier; Anota, Amélie; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-08-01

    Glioblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor in adults. Baseline health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a major subject of concern for these patients. We aimed to assess the independent prognostic value of HRQoL in unresectable glioblastoma (UGB) patients for death risk stratification. One hundred and thirty-four patients with UGB were enrolled from the TEMAVIR trial. HRQoL was evaluated at baseline using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and BN20 brain cancer module. Clinical and HRQoL parameters were evaluated in univariable and multivariable Cox analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were evaluated with Harrel's C-index, calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedure. Two OS independent predictors were identified: future uncertainty and sensitivity deficit. The final model exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C statistic = 0.63). The internal validity of the model was verified with robust uncertainties around the hazard ratio. The prognostic score identified three groups of patients with distinctly different risk profiles with median OS estimated at 16.2, 9.2, and 4.5 months. We demonstrated the additional prognostic value of HRQoL in UGB for death risk stratification and provided a score that may help to guide clinical management and stratification in future clinical trials. PMID:27252150

  6. Can Score Databanks Help Teaching?

    PubMed Central

    Almeida, Alessandro; Barral-Netto, Manoel

    2011-01-01

    Background Basic courses in most medical schools assess students' performance by conferring scores. The objective of this work is to use a large score databank for the early identification of students with low performance and to identify course trends based on the mean of students' grades. Methodology/Principal Findings We studied scores from 2,398 medical students registered in courses over a period of 10 years. Students in the first semester were grouped into those whose ratings remained in the lower quartile in two or more courses (low-performance) and students who had up to one course in the lower quartile (high-performance). ROC curves were built, aimed at the identification of a cut-off average score in the first semesters that would be able to predict low performances in future semesters. Moreover, to follow the long-term pattern of each course, the mean of all scores conferred in a semester was compared to the overall course mean obtained by averaging 10 years of data. Individuals in the low-performance group had a higher risk of being in the lower quartile of at least one course in the second semester (relative risk 3.907; 95% CI: 3.378–4.519) and in the eighth semester (relative risk 2.873; 95% CI: 2.495–3.308). The prediction analysis revealed that an average score of 7.188 in the first semester could identify students that presented scores below the lower quartiles in both the second and eighth semesters (p<0.0001 for both AUC). When scores conferred by single courses were compared over time, three time-trend patterns emerged: low variation, upward trend and erratic pattern. Conclusion/Significance An early identification of students with low performance may be useful in promoting pedagogical strategies for these individuals. Evaluation of the time trend of scores conferred by courses may help departments monitoring changes in personnel and methodology that may affect a student's performance. PMID:21246033

  7. The prognostic relevance of flt3 and npm1 mutations on older patients treated intensively or non-intensively: a study of 1312 patients in the UK NCRI AML16 trial.

    PubMed

    Lazenby, M; Gilkes, A F; Marrin, C; Evans, A; Hills, R K; Burnett, A K

    2014-10-01

    Although the prognostic impact of mutations of FLT3 and NPM1 have been extensively studied in younger patients with acute myeloid leukaemia, less is known in older patients whether treated intensively or non-intensively, or in the context of existing prognostic scores. In 1312 patients 16 and 21%, respectively had an FLT3 and NPM1 mutation. An FLT3 mutation did not affect remission rate in intensively or non-intensively treated patients but was associated with an inferior survival. All patients with an NPM1c mutation had a significantly higher remission rate irrespective of treatment approach but survival was not improved, overall, or in any genotype except as in younger patients, in the FLT3 WT NPM1c mutant subgroup. When incorporated into an established multi-parameter prognostic risk score, the molecular information provided additional prognostic definition in 11% of patients. PMID:24573385

  8. [Trauma scores: reproducibility and reliability].

    PubMed

    Waydhas, C; Nast-Kolb, D; Trupka, A; Kerim-Sade, C; Kanz, G; Zoller, J; Schweiberer, L

    1992-02-01

    The inter-rater reliability of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) and the Polytraumaschlüssel (PTS) [multiple trauma code] was studied using diagnosis sheets filled in for 107 multiple injured patients. The scoring was performed by eight physicians with different levels of qualification. The scores for individual patients varied widely depending on the scorer, with extremes differing from the mean by about 80% and 70% for the ISS and PTS, respectively. The mean ISS and PTS for the whole study population also varied significantly between the scorers (P less than 0.0001, one-way analysis of variance). Raters with experience in trauma scoring calculated significantly higher scores (P less than 0.01, t-test) Neither the ISS nor the PTS seem reliable enough to describe injury severity in an individual patient. Treatment decisions must not be based on such grounds. Even for larger groups, caution must be exercised in comparison of different populations of multiple traumatized patients. PMID:1570531

  9. Ligand Identification Scoring Algorithm (LISA)

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Zheng; Merz, Kenneth M.

    2011-01-01

    A central problem in de novo drug design is determining the binding affinity of a ligand with a receptor. A new scoring algorithm is presented that estimates the binding affinity of a protein-ligand complex given a three-dimensional structure. The method, LISA (Ligand Identification Scoring Algorithm), uses an empirical scoring function to describe the binding free energy. Interaction terms have been designed to account for van der Waals (VDW) contacts, hydrogen bonding, desolvation effects and metal chelation to model the dissociation equilibrium constants using a linear model. Atom types have been introduced to differentiate the parameters for VDW, H-bonding interactions and metal chelation between different atom pairs. A training set of 492 protein-ligand complexes was selected for the fitting process. Different test sets have been examined to evaluate its ability to predict experimentally measured binding affinities. By comparing with other well known scoring functions, the results show that LISA has advantages over many existing scoring functions in simulating protein-ligand binding affinity, especially metalloprotein-ligand binding affinity. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was also used in order to demonstrate that the energy terms in LISA are well designed and do not require extra cross terms. PMID:21561101

  10. Prognostic significance of pleural or pericardial effusion and the implication of optimal treatment in primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma: a multicenter retrospective study in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Aoki, Tomohiro; Izutsu, Koji; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Nakaseko, Chiaki; Arima, Hiroshi; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Tomita, Akihiro; Sasaki, Makoto; Takizawa, Jun; Mitani, Kinuko; Igarashi, Tadahiko; Maeda, Yoshinobu; Fukuhara, Noriko; Ishida, Fumihiro; Niitsu, Nozomi; Ohmachi, Ken; Takasaki, Hirotaka; Nakamura, Naoya; Kinoshita, Tomohiro; Nakamura, Shigeo; Ogura, Michinori

    2014-01-01

    The prognosis of patients with primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma has improved over recent years. However, the optimal treatment strategy including the role of radiotherapy remains unknown. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical outcomes of 345 patients with newly diagnosed primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma in Japan. With a median follow up of 48 months, the overall survival at four years for patients treated with R-CHOP (n=187), CHOP (n=44), DA-EPOCH-R (n=9), 2nd- or 3rd-generation regimens, and chemotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation were 90%, 67%, 100%, 91% and 92%, respectively. Focusing on patients treated with R-CHOP, a higher International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion were identified as adverse prognostic factors for overall survival in patients treated with R-CHOP without consolidative radiotherapy (IPI: hazard ratio 4.23, 95% confidence interval 1.48–12.13, P=0.007; effusion: hazard ratio 4.93, 95% confidence interval 1.37–17.69, P=0.015). Combined with the International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion for the stratification of patients treated with R-CHOP without radiotherapy, patients with lower International Prognostic Index score and the absence of effusion comprised approximately one-half of these patients and could be identified as curable patients (95% overall survival at 4 years). The DA-EPOCH-R regimen might overcome the effect of these adverse prognostic factors. Our simple indicators of International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion could stratify patients with primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma and help guide selection of treatment. PMID:25216682

  11. Utility of the Shock Index and Other Risk-Scoring Tools in Patients with Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    PubMed

    Ratra, Atul; Rassameehiran, Supannee; Parupudi, Sreeram; Nugent, Kenneth

    2016-03-01

    Patients with upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding frequently require hospitalization and have a mortality rate that ranges from 6% to 14%. These patients need rapid clinical assessment to determine the urgency of endoscopy and the need for endoscopic treatment. Risk-scoring tools, such as the Rockall score and the Glasgow-Blatchford score, are commonly used in this assessment. These tools clearly help identify high-risk patients but do not necessarily have good predictive value in identifying important outcomes. Their diagnostic accuracy in identifying rebleeding and mortality ranges from poor to fair. The shock index (heart rate divided by systolic blood pressure) provides an integrated assessment of the cardiovascular status. It can be easily calculated during the initial evaluation of patients and monitoring after treatment. The shock index has been used in a few studies in patients with acute GI bleeding, including studies to determine which patients need emergency endoscopy, to predict complications after corrosive ingestions, to identify delayed hemorrhage following pancreatic surgery, and to evaluate the utility of angiograms to identify sites of GI bleeding. Not all studies have found the shock index to be useful in patients with GI bleeding, however. This may reflect the unpredictable natural history of various etiologies of GI bleeding, comorbidity that may influence blood pressure and/or heart rate, and inadequate data acquisition. The shock index needs more formal study in patients with GI bleeding admitted to medical intensive care units. Important considerations include the initial response to resuscitation, persistent bleeding following initial treatment, and rebleeding following a period of stabilization. In addition, it needs correlation with other risk-scoring tools. PMID:26954657

  12. Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

  13. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harp, Janicce Leshay

    2014-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component, system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the "end of life." The capability also provides an assessment of the "remaining useful life" of a hardware component.

  14. Prognostic Analysis of the Tactical Quiet Generator

    SciTech Connect

    Hively, Lee M

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Army needs prognostic analysis of mission-critical equipment to enable condition-based maintenance before failure. ORNL has developed and patented prognostic technology that quantifies condition change from noisy, multi-channel, time-serial data. This report describes an initial application of ORNL's prognostic technology to the Army's Tactical Quiet Generator (TQG), which is designed to operate continuously at 10 kW. Less-than-full power operation causes unburned fuel to accumulate on internal components, thereby degrading operation and eventually leading to failure. The first objective of this work was identification of easily-acquired, process-indicative data. Two types of appropriate data were identified, namely output-electrical current and voltage, plus tri-axial acceleration (vibration). The second objective of this work was data quality analysis to avoid the garbage-in-garbage-out syndrome. Quality analysis identified more than 10% of the current data as having consecutive values that are constant, or that saturate at an extreme value. Consequently, the electrical data were not analyzed further. The third objective was condition-change analysis to indicate operational stress under non-ideal operation and machine degradation in proportion to the operational stress. Application of ORNL's novel phase-space dissimilarity measures to the vibration power quantified the rising operational stress in direct proportion to the less-than-full-load power. We conclude that ORNL's technology is an excellent candidate to meet the U.S. Army's need for equipment prognostication.

  15. High resolution ECG-aided early prognostic model for comatose survivors of out of hospital cardiac arrest.

    PubMed

    Rauber, Martin; Štajer, Dušan; Noč, Marko; Schlegel, Todd T; Starc, Vito

    2015-01-01

    Out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has a high mortality despite modern treatment. Reliable early prognosis in OHCA could significantly improve clinical decision making. We explored prognostic utility of advanced ECG parameters, obtained from high-resolution ECG, in combination with clinical and OHCA-related parameters during treatment with mild induced hypothermia (MIH) and after rewarming in unconscious survivors of OHCA. Ninety-two patients during MIH and 66 after rewarming were included. During MIH, a score based on initial rhythm, QRS-upslope and systolic pressure resulted in an area under curve (AUC) of 0.82 and accuracy of 80% for survival. After rewarming, a score based on admission rhythm, sum of 12 lead QRS voltages, and mean lateral ST segment level in leads I and V6 resulted in an AUC of 0.88 and accuracy of 85% for survival. ECG can assist with early prognostication in unconscious survivors of OHCA during MIH and after rewarming. PMID:25911585

  16. Interpreting Force Concept Inventory Scores: Normalized Gain and SAT Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coletta, Vincent P.; Phillips, Jeffrey A.; Steinert, Jeffrey J.

    2007-01-01

    Preinstruction SAT scores and normalized gains (G) on the force concept inventory (FCI) were examined for individual students in interactive engagement (IE) courses in introductory mechanics at one high school (N=335) and one university (N=292), and strong, positive correlations were found for both populations (r=0.57 and r=0.46, respectively).…

  17. A Bootstrap Procedure of Propensity Score Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bai, Haiyan

    2013-01-01

    Propensity score estimation plays a fundamental role in propensity score matching for reducing group selection bias in observational data. To increase the accuracy of propensity score estimation, the author developed a bootstrap propensity score. The commonly used propensity score matching methods: nearest neighbor matching, caliper matching, and…

  18. Estimating Decision Indices Based on Composite Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knupp, Tawnya Lee

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an IRT model that would enable the estimation of decision indices based on composite scores. The composite scores, defined as a combination of unidimensional test scores, were either a total raw score or an average scale score. Additionally, estimation methods for the normal and compound multinomial models…

  19. Electronic Scoring of Essays: Does Topic Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Cindy L.

    2008-01-01

    The scoring of student essays by computer has generated much debate and subsequent research. The majority of the research thus far has focused on validating the automated scoring tools by comparing the electronic scores to human scores of writing or other measures of writing skills, and exploring the predictive validity of the automated scores.…

  20. External Validation of the Number of Risk Factors Score in a Palliative Care Outpatient Clinic at a Comprehensive Cancer Center

    PubMed Central

    Shariff, Imran; Thaler, Howard T.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background: Prognostic tools are available to predict if terminally ill cancer patients have days or weeks to live. Tools for predicting the prognosis in ambulatory patients at an earlier stage are lacking. The Number of Risk Factors (NRF) score developed in ambulatory cancer patients receiving palliative radiation therapy may be suitable for this purpose but has not been tested in a palliative care setting. Objective: Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of the NRF score in patients referred to a palliative care outpatient clinic at a comprehensive cancer center. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of NRF scores and survival in 300 consecutive, newly referred patients. Measurements included primary cancer type, extent of disease, Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, and survival duration after first visit. One point was allocated each for cancer other than breast cancer, metastases other than bone, and low KPS score. Results: Of 300 patients, 236 (79%) had advanced disease. Of those 236, 212 (90%) had a cancer other than breast cancer, 180 (76%) had metastatic disease in sites other than bone, and 64 (27%) had a KPS score <70%. During the 2-year follow-up, 221 (94%) patients died, with overall median survival of 4.9 months (95% confidence interval, 3.9–6.1 months). NRF scores of 0 to 1, 2, and 3 split the sample into subgroups with highly significantly different survival among the groups, with medians 9.0, 4.6, and 2.1 months, respectively (Wilcoxon test χ2=43.9, degrees of freedom [df] 2, p<0.0001). A simple parametric model was fit to determine the probability of subgroup members surviving to a certain number of months. Conclusions: In cancer patients referred to palliative care earlier in their disease trajectory, the NRF score may be a useful prognostic tool. Further validation in other palliative care populations is needed. PMID:24871990

  1. Cathepsin S expression: An independent prognostic factor in glioblastoma tumours--A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Flannery, Thomas; McQuaid, Stephen; McGoohan, Caroline; McConnell, Robert S; McGregor, Gordon; Mirakhur, Meenakshi; Hamilton, Peter; Diamond, James; Cran, Gordon; Walker, Brian; Scott, Christopher; Martin, Lorraine; Ellison, David; Patel, Chirag; Nicholson, Clare; Mendelow, David; McCormick, Derek; Johnston, Patrick G

    2006-08-15

    Cysteine proteinases have been implicated in astrocytoma invasion. We recently demonstrated that cathepsin S (CatS) expression is up-regulated in astrocytomas and provided evidence for a potential role in astrocytoma invasion (Flannery et al., Am J Path 2003;163(1):175-82). We aimed to evaluate the significance of CatS in human astrocytoma progression and as a prognostic marker. Frozen tissue homogenates from 71 patients with astrocytomas and 3 normal brain specimens were subjected to ELISA analyses. Immunohistochemical analysis of CatS expression was performed on 126 paraffin-embedded tumour samples. Fifty-one astrocytoma cases were suitable for both frozen tissue and paraffin tissue analysis. ELISA revealed minimal expression of CatS in normal brain homogenates. CatS expression was increased in grade IV tumours whereas astrocytoma grades I-III exhibited lower values. Immunohistochemical analysis revealed a similar pattern of expression. Moreover, high-CatS immunohistochemical scores in glioblastomas were associated with significantly shorter survival (10 vs. 5 months, p = 0.014). With forced inclusion of patient age, radiation dose and Karnofsky score in the Cox multivariate model, CatS score was found to be an independent predictor of survival. CatS expression in astrocytomas is associated with tumour progression and poor outcome in glioblastomas. CatS may serve as a useful prognostic indicator and potential target for anti-invasive therapy. PMID:16550604

  2. The Biochemical Prognostic Factors of Subclinical Hypothyroidism

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Myung Won; Shin, Dong Yeob; Kim, Kwang Joon; Hwang, Sena

    2014-01-01

    Background Patients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SHT) are common in clinical practice. However, the clinical significance of SHT, including prognosis, has not been established. Further clarifying SHT will be critical in devising a management plan and treatment guidelines for SHT patients. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors of SHT. Methods We reviewed the medical records of Korean patients who visited the endocrinology outpatient clinic of Severance Hospital from January 2008 to September 2012. Newly-diagnosed patients with SHT were selected and reviewed retrospectively. We compared two groups: the SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group. Results The SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group had initial thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels that were significantly different (P=0.035). In subanalysis for subjects with TSH levels between 5 to 10 µIU/mL, the spontaneous improvement group showed significantly lower antithyroid peroxidase antibody (anti-TPO-Ab) titer than the SHT maintenance group (P=0.039). Regarding lipid profiles, only triglyceride level, unlike total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, was related to TSH level, which is correlated with the severity of SHT. Diffuse thyroiditis on ultrasonography only contributed to the severity of SHT, not to the prognosis. High sensitivity C-reactive protein and urine iodine excretion, generally regarded as possible prognostic factors, did not show any significant relation with the prognosis and severity of SHT. Conclusion Only initial TSH level was a definite prognostic factor of SHT. TPO-Ab titer was also a helpful prognostic factor for SHT in cases with mildly elevated TSH. Other than TSH and TPO-Ab, we were unable to validate biochemical prognostic factors in this retrospective study for Korean SHT patients. PMID:25031888

  3. Complex karyotype in mantle cell lymphoma is a strong prognostic factor for the time to treatment and overall survival, independent of the MCL international prognostic index.

    PubMed

    Sarkozy, Clémentine; Terré, Christine; Jardin, Fabrice; Radford, Isabelle; Roche-Lestienne, Catherine; Penther, Dominique; Bastard, Christian; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Pilorge, Sylvain; Morschhauser, Franck; Bouscary, Didier; Delarue, Richard; Farhat, Hassan; Rousselot, Philippe; Hermine, Olivier; Tilly, Hervé; Chevret, Sylvie; Castaigne, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is usually an aggressive disease. However, a few patients do have an "indolent" evolution (iMCL) defined by a long survival time without intensive therapy. Many studies highlight the prognostic role of additional genetic abnormalities, but these abnormalities are not routinely tested for and do not yet influence the treatment decision. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these additional abnormalities detected by conventional cytogenetic testing, as well as their relationships with the clinical characteristics and their value in identifying iMCL. All consecutive MCL cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2011 at four institutions were retrospectively selected on the basis of an informative karyotype with a t(11;14) translocation at the time of diagnosis. A total of 125 patients were included and followed for an actual median time of 35 months. The median overall survival (OS) and survival without treatment (TFS) were 73.7 and 1.3 months, respectively. In multivariable Cox models, a high mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index score, a complex karyotype, and blastoid morphology were independently associated with a shortened OS. Spleen enlargement, nodal presentation, extra-hematological involvement, and complex karyotypes were associated with shorter TFS. A score based on these factors allowed for the identification of "indolent" patients (median TFS 107 months) from other patients (median TFS: 1 month). In conclusion, in this multicentric cohort of MCL patients, a complex karyotype was associated with a shorter survival time and allowed for the identification of iMCL at the time of diagnosis. PMID:24249260

  4. Conceptualizing prognostic awareness in advanced cancer: A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Applebaum, Allison J; Kolva, Elissa A; Kulikowski, Julia R; Jacobs, Jordana D; DeRosa, Antonio; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Olden, Megan E; Rosenfeld, Barry; Breitbart, William

    2015-01-01

    This systematic review synthesizes the complex literature on prognostic awareness in cancer. A total of 37 studies examining cancer patients’ understanding of their prognosis were included. Prognostic awareness definitions and assessment methods were inconsistent across studies. A surprisingly high percentage of patients (up to 75%) were unaware of their poor prognosis, and in several studies, even their cancer diagnosis (up to 96%), particularly in studies conducted outside of North America. This review highlights surprisingly low rates of prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer as well as discrepancies in prognostic awareness assessment, suggesting the need for empirically validated measures of prognostic awareness. PMID:24157936

  5. Validity of the Graded Prognostic Assessment-Derived Index to Predict Brain-Metastatic Patients' Survival After Gamma Knife Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect

    Chiou, Shang-Ming

    2010-11-15

    Purpose: To appraise whether the graded prognostic assessment (GPA)-derived index is valid for selecting patients with brain metastases for Gamma Knife (GK) radiosurgery. Methods and Materials: A total of 56 consecutive patients in recursive partioning analysis (RPA) Class I (n = 19, 34%) and II (n = 37, 66%) formed the basis of this retrospective study. Their mean age was of 57 years with mean Karnofsky performance score of 77. Primary cancers stemmed mainly from the lungs (59%). A total of 45 patients (80%) harbored multiple tumors. The mean clinical follow-up period was 9 months. Results: Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the overall median survival time (MST) for the whole series was 11.5 months: 16.5 vs. 6.5 months for RPA class I and II (p = 0.017). Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that female patients and a pre-GK good functional state were favorable prognostic factors. The favorable MST was in patients with a GPA score of 3 to 4 (17 months) followed by a GPA score of 2 to 2.5 (11 months) and GPA score 0 to 1.5 (6.5 months), but without statistical differences (p = 0.413) in between. A modified index (MGPA) is proposed with gender as a cofactor, then there existed a distinct survival differences (p = 0.028) between patients with an MGPA score of 3.5 to 5 (15 months) and with an MGPA score of 0 to 3 (7 months). In addition, the original GPA index failed to imply the difference of MST in patients with lung origin. Conclusions: The GPA-derived index is not applicable to our set of patients for comparing their survival after GK radiosurgery. The gender of the patients is a suggested cofactor to further refine the greater prognostic accuracy of the GPA index.

  6. Gene expression-based risk score in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Bret, Caroline; Klein, Bernard; Moreaux, Jérôme

    2012-12-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common type of non-Hodgkin lymphoma and displays heterogeneous clinical and molecular characteristics. In this study, high throughput gene expression profiling of DLBCL tumor samples was used to design a 12-gene expression-based risk score (GERS) predictive for patient's overall survival. GERS allowed identifying a high-risk group comprising 46,4% of the DLBCL patients in two independent cohorts (n=414 and n=69). GERS was shown to be an independent predictor of survival when compared to the previously published prognostic factors, including the International Prognostic Index (IPI). GERS displayed a prognostic value in germinal-center B-cell-like subgroup (GCB) and activated B cell-like (ABC) molecular subgroups of patients as well as in DLBCL patients treated with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (CHOP) or rituximab-CHOP (R-CHOP) regimens. Combination of GERS and IPI lead to a potent prognostic classification of DLBCL patients. Finally, a genomic instability gene signature was highlighted in gene expression profiles of patients belonging to the high-risk GERS-defined group. PMID:23482333

  7. A prognostic model for short term adverse events in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Agterof, Mariette J; Schutgens, Roger E G; Moumli, Noureddine; Eijkemans, M J C; van der Griend, René; Tromp, Ellen A M; Biesma, Douwe H

    2011-08-01

    Risk stratification of patients with PE has gained interest in terms of the identification of patients in whom treatment on an outpatient base can be considered. Previous studies are of limited value due to their focus on adverse clinical events within several months after diagnosis of PE. We developed a prognostic model, based on easily accessible, clinical, and laboratory parameters, to predict adverse events during the first 10 days after the diagnosis of acute PE. We have analyzed the data of 210 outpatients with confirmed PE. Collected data included medical history, pulse rate, blood pressure, NT-proBNP, and D-dimer concentrations. The primary outcome was the occurrence of adverse clinical events in a 10 day follow-up period. Our final prognostic model to predict short-term adverse events consists of NT-proBNP levels, D-dimer concentrations, pulse rate, and the occurrence of active malignancy; the total score ranges from 0 to 37 points. Patients with a low score (no active malignancy, pulse rate <90 bpm, NT-proBNP <500 pg/ml, and D-dimer <3,000 μg/l FEU) have a 10-day adverse event risk <1.5%. This risk increases to over 30% in patients with a maximum score, based on high pulse rate, D-dimer concentrations, and NT-proBNP levels. Our prognostic model, once prospectively validated in an independent sample of patients, can be used in the early risk stratification of PE to estimate the risk of adverse events and to differentiate between candidates for in- or out- hospital treatment. PMID:21630313

  8. LSAT Scores of Economics Majors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nieswiadomy, Michael

    1998-01-01

    Argues that economics education provides many benefits to students, including preparation for law school. Examines the ranking of economics majors on the Law School Admission Test (LSAT). Finds that among the 14 majors having more than 2,000 students take the LSAT, economics students received the highest average score. (DSK)

  9. Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Distributed prognostics architecture design is an enabling step for efficient implementation of health management systems. A major challenge encountered in such design is formulation of optimal distributed prognostics algorithms. In this paper. we present a distributed GPR based prognostics algorithm whose target platform is a wireless sensor network. In addition to challenges encountered in a distributed implementation, a wireless network poses constraints on communication patterns, thereby making the problem more challenging. The prognostics application that was used to demonstrate our new algorithms is battery prognostics. In order to present trade-offs within different prognostic approaches, we present comparison with the distributed implementation of a particle filter based prognostics for the same battery data.

  10. Prognostic differences between VAP from Acinetobacter baumanii and VAP from other microorganisms.

    PubMed

    Di Bonito, Marianna; Caiazzo, Simona; Iannazzone, Marta; Miccichè, Viviana; De Marco, Giuseppe; De Robertis, Edoardo; Tufano, Rosalba; Piazza, Ornella

    2012-05-01

    Nosocomial infection, in particular pneumonia, is an important risk factor for hospital mortality and morbidity. Acinetobacter baumanii is a common multi-resistant microorganism responsible of Ventilator Associated Pneumonia (VAP). Currently Colistin is a rescue therapy for this pathogen. The purpose of this retrospective study is to compare the outcome of VAP caused by Acinetobacter baumanii and VAP from other microorganisms in critical patients. Comorbidity, prognostic scores, mortality and eradication frequency did not turn out significantly different between the two study groups. Colistin safety was tested. PMID:23905048

  11. Prognostic differences between VAP from Acinetobacter baumanii and VAP from other microorganisms

    PubMed Central

    Di Bonito, Marianna; Caiazzo, Simona; Iannazzone, Marta; Miccichè, Viviana; De Marco, Giuseppe; De Robertis, Edoardo; Tufano, Rosalba; Piazza, Ornella

    2012-01-01

    Nosocomial infection, in particular pneumonia, is an important risk factor for hospital mortality and morbidity. Acinetobacter baumanii is a common multi-resistant microorganism responsible of Ventilator Associated Pneumonia (VAP). Currently Colistin is a rescue therapy for this pathogen. The purpose of this retrospective study is to compare the outcome of VAP caused by Acinetobacter baumanii and VAP from other microorganisms in critical patients. Comorbidity, prognostic scores, mortality and eradication frequency did not turn out significantly different between the two study groups. Colistin safety was tested. PMID:23905048

  12. The ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) stroke risk score: a biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in atrial fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Hijazi, Ziad; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H.; Hanna, Michael; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M.; Lopes, Renato D.; Oldgren, Jonas; Siegbahn, Agneta; Stewart, Ralph A.H.; White, Harvey D.; Granger, Christopher B.; Wallentin, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which is currently estimated by clinical characteristics. The cardiac biomarkers N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin high-sensitivity (cTn-hs) are independently associated with risk of stroke in AF. Our objective was to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve prognostication of stroke in patients with AF. Methods and results A new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 701 patients with AF and biomarkers levels determined at baseline, median follow-up of 1.9 years. Biomarkers and clinical variables significantly contributing to predicting stroke or systemic embolism were assessed by Cox-regression and each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. External validation was performed in 1400 patients with AF, median follow-up of 3.4 years. The most important predictors were prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, NT-proBNP, cTn-hs, and age, which were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) stroke risk score. The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than the widely used CHA2DS2-VASc score in both the derivation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.62, P < 0.001) and the external validation cohort (0.66 vs. 0.58, P < 0.001). Moreover, the ABC-stroke score consistently provided higher c-indices in several important subgroups. Conclusion A novel biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in AF was successfully developed and internally validated in a large cohort of patients with AF and further externally validated in an independent AF cohort. The ABC-stroke score performed better than the presently used clinically based risk score and may provide improved decision support in AF. ClinicalTrials. gov identifier NCT00412984, NCT00799903. PMID:26920728

  13. Bax expression has prognostic significance that is enhanced when combined with AgNOR counts in glottic carcinomas.

    PubMed Central

    Xie, X.; Clausen, O. P.; De Angelis, P.; Boysen, M.

    1998-01-01

    Using nucleolar organizer regions (NORs) as a proliferative marker and Bax expression as a marker for apoptosis, we have studied the individual and combined prognostic significance of these markers. Successive sections of diagnostic, formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded specimens from 69 patients with T1-4 tumours were stained with a rabbit anti-human Bax polyclonal antibody and silver nitrate for visualization of NORs (AgNORs). After classification for staining intensity and the percentage of Bax expression, a final score resulting in four classes of increasing Bax expression was obtained. AgNOR counts were expressed as mean counts (mAgNOR) and the percentage of tumour nuclei with more than one AgNOR (pAgNOR>1). Both AgNOR parameters were grouped in three classes with increasing values. Low Bax scores correlated significantly with poor prognosis (P = 0.0106). For mAgNOR and pAgNOR>1, high values correlated with poor prognosis (P = 0.0185 and P = 0.0003 respectively). A combined parameter, for which the Bax score was subtracted from the AgNOR scores, appeared to be statistically stronger than the individual parameters (P < 0.0001). Both Bax expression and AgNOR scores, and in particular the combination of these parameters, appear to be strong prognostic markers in glottic squamous cell carcinomas. PMID:9662258

  14. Relative prognostic value of the Dukes and the Jass systems in rectal cancer. Findings from the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Projects (Protocol R-01)

    PubMed

    Fisher, E R; Robinsky, B; Sass, R; Fisher, B

    1989-11-01

    A comparison of the prognostic values of the Dukes and Jass systems were performed with 722 patients with rectal cancer enrolled in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Projects, protocol R-01. The Jass system revealed four prognostic groups when all patients or only Dukes' B and C cases were examined; however, the magnitude of differences between groups I and II and III and IV were small. Dukes' classification, as defined in this study, revealed five prognostic groups. A statistically strong association between the Jass and Dukes systems was observed. Although histologic grade permitted further prognostic discrimination of all Dukes stages except A, only the Jass system allowed for the subdivision of C cases with up to four nodes positive for metastases. Those in that group had survival rates comparable to B cases (no nodal involvement) when scores of I and II were found. The distributions of the patients in the extremes of the Jass and Dukes systems (C2 as defined) were almost similar. The findings indicate that the Jass system is a valid prognostic method for patients with rectal carcinoma. In this material, however, it basically allowed for only two major prognostic groups whereas five were noted by the Dukes method. These results, as well as the more objective nature of Dukes' classification, warrant its continued use for prognosis and therapeutic decisions for patients with rectal cancer. PMID:2478350

  15. Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE

    PubMed Central

    Ensor, Joie; Riley, Richard D; Moore, David; Bayliss, Susan; Fitzmaurice, David

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To review studies developing or validating a prognostic model for individual venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk following cessation of therapy for a first unprovoked VTE. Prediction of recurrence risk is crucial to informing patient prognosis and treatment decisions. The review aims to determine whether reliable prognostic models exist and, if not, what further research is needed within the field. Design Bibliographic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) were searched using index terms relating to the clinical field and prognosis. Screening of titles, abstracts and subsequently full texts was conducted by 2 reviewers independently using predefined criteria. Quality assessment and critical appraisal of included full texts was based on an early version of the PROBAST (Prediction study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool) for risk of bias and applicability in prognostic model studies. Setting Studies in any setting were included. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome for the review was the predictive accuracy of identified prognostic models in relation to VTE recurrence risk. Results 3 unique prognostic models were identified including the HERDOO2 score, Vienna prediction model and DASH score. Quality assessment highlighted the Vienna, and DASH models were developed with generally strong methodology, but the HERDOO2 model had many methodological concerns. Further, all models were considered at least at moderate risk of bias, primarily due to the need for further external validation before use in practice. Conclusions Although the Vienna model shows the most promise (based on strong development methodology, applicability and having some external validation), none of the models can be considered ready for use until further, external and robust validation is performed in new data. Any new models should consider the inclusion of predictors found to be consistently important in existing models (sex, site of index

  16. Do Examinees Understand Score Reports for Alternate Methods of Scoring Computer Based Tests?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Williams, Natasha J.; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2011-01-01

    This study assessed the interpretability of scaled scores based on either number correct (NC) scoring for a paper-and-pencil test or one of two methods of scoring computer-based tests: an item pattern (IP) scoring method and a method based on equated NC scoring. The equated NC scoring method for computer-based tests was proposed as an alternative…

  17. Prognostics for Electronics Components of Avionics Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2009-01-01

    Electronics components have and increasingly critical role in avionics systems and for the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research filed as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management. This paper reports on a prognostics application for electronics components of avionics systems, in particular, its application to the Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). The remaining useful life prediction for the IGBT is based on the particle filter framework, leveraging data from an accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. The accelerated aging test provided thermal-electrical overstress by applying thermal cycling to the device. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of the steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  18. [Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

    PubMed

    Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique

    2016-02-19

    Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies. PMID:25726309

  19. Prognostic Value of Colorectal Cancer Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Bianchi, Paolo; Laghi, Luigi; Delconte, Gabriele; Malesci, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Despite the large amount of data in cancer biology and many studies into the likely survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, knowledge regarding the issue of CRC prognostic biomarkers remains poor. The Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system continues to be the most powerful and reliable predictor of the clinical outcome of CRC patients. The exponential increase of knowledge in the field of molecular genetics has lead to the identification of specific alterations involved in the malignant progression. Many of these genetic alterations were proposed as biomarkers which could be used in clinical practice to estimate CRC prognosis. Recently there has been an explosive increase in the number of putative biomarkers able to predict the response to specific adjuvant treatment. In this review we explore and summarize data concerning prognostic and predictive biomarkers and we attempt to shed light on recent research that could lead to the emergence of new biomarkers in CRC. PMID:24212797

  20. The evolution and clinical relevance of prognostic classification systems in myelofibrosis.

    PubMed

    Bose, Prithviraj; Verstovsek, Srdan

    2016-03-01

    Primary myelofibrosis, the most aggressive of the classic Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), is a clonal disorder characterized by often debilitating constitutional symptoms and splenomegaly, bone marrow fibrosis and resultant cytopenias, extramedullary hematopoiesis, risk of leukemic transformation, and shortened survival. Post-polycythemia vera and post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis represent similar entities, although some differences are being recognized. Attempts to classify patients with myelofibrosis into prognostic categories have been made since the late 1980s, and these scoring systems continue to evolve as new information becomes available. Over the last decade, the molecular pathogenesis of MPNs has been elucidated considerably, and the Janus kinase (JAK) 1/2 inhibitor ruxolitinib is the first drug specifically approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat patients with intermediate-risk and high-risk myelofibrosis. This article reviews the evolution of prognostic criteria in myelofibrosis, emphasizing the major systems widely in use today, as well as recently described, novel systems that incorporate emerging data regarding somatic mutations. Risk factors for thrombosis and conversion to MPN blast phase also are discussed. Finally, the practical usefulness of the current prognostic classification systems in terms of clinical decision making is discussed, particularly within the context of some of their inherent weaknesses. Cancer 2016;122:681-692. © 2015 American Cancer Society. PMID:26717494

  1. Prognostic value of survivin in patients with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    He, Chuan; Liu, Zhigang; Ji, Jie; Zhu, Huanling

    2015-01-01

    Background and objectives: Numerous studies have focused on the role of survivin in non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas (NHLs), but evidence regarding the prognostic value of survivin with respect to overall survival (OS) in NHL remains controversial. The aim of this study is to gain a better insight about the direct relationship between survivin expression and patients’ survival statuses. Materials and methods: Relevant publications addressing the association between survivin expression and OS in NHL patients were selected from PubMed, Embase, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database (CBM), China National Knowledge Infrastructure Database (CNKI), China Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP), Wanfang Database and the Cochrane library. Studies were pooled and summary hazard ratios (HR) were calculated. Sensitivity analyses and publication bias were also conducted. Statistical analysis was performed by STATA 12.0 software. Results: 12 studies met the inclusion criteria. Combined HRs suggested that survivin overexpression had an unfavorable impact on NHL patients’ survival (HR=1.55, 95% CI=1.12-2.13, P=0.008). Subgroup analyses according to the studies categorized by histological type, ethnicity, cutoff scores and follow-up period were also conducted, and all the above analyses supported the stability of the prognostic role of survivin. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that survivin high expression might be a poor prognostic factor for patients with NHL. However, further large scale studies are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:26131175

  2. Medulloblastoma. The identification of prognostic subgroups and implications for multimodality management

    SciTech Connect

    Kopelson, G.; Linggood, R.M.; Kleinman, G.M.

    1983-01-15

    For 43 medulloblatoma patients who had five-and ten-year actuarial survival rates of 56%, prognostic factors of statistical significance included: T-stage, M-stage and histopathologic tumor score. Posterior fossa local control rates were also function of T-stage and TS. Combining TS with T-stage, patients fell into three prognostic and local control groups, which may have different future management implications: Small (T1,2) tumors of favorable (TS less than or equal to 5) histology had a 92% ten-year actuarial survival rate with 100% (8/8) local control; no change from current management is suggested. For the intermediate prognosis group, increasing the irradiation dose alone may improve survival because these tumors exhibited an irradiation dose-response relationship. However, it is the poor prognosis group which might be suitable for future adjuvant chemotherapy or radiosensitizer trials since there is no evidence that higher irradiation doses improve local control. This article identifies prognostic subgroups based on histologic type and TM staging in medulloblastoma patients which potentially may be utilized to improve therapeutic results, and confirms the value of staging patients with central nervous system malignancies.

  3. Utility of Hippocrates’ prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine if one of Hippocrates’ aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Design Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Setting Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. Participants 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Main outcome measure Time to death. Methods We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. Results The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. Conclusion An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. PMID:25512328

  4. Genomic Instability: A Stronger Prognostic Marker Than Proliferation for Early Stage Luminal Breast Carcinomas

    PubMed Central

    Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Benhamo, Vanessa; Gravier, Eléonore; Rigaill, Guillem; Gruel, Nadège; Robin, Stéphane; de Rycke, Yann; Mariani, Odette; Pierron, Gaëlle; Gentien, David; Reyal, Fabien; Cottu, Paul; Fourquet, Alain; Rouzier, Roman; Sastre-Garau, Xavier; Delattre, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Background The accurate prognosis definition to tailor treatment for early luminal invasive breast carcinoma patients remains challenging. Materials and Methods Two hundred fourteen early luminal breast carcinomas were genotyped with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) array to determine the number of chromosomal breakpoints as a marker of genomic instability. Proliferation was assessed by KI67 (immunohistochemistry) and genomic grade index (transcriptomic analysis). IHC3 (IHC4 score for HER2 negative tumors) was also determined. Results In the training set (109 cases), the optimal cut-off was 34 breakpoints with a specificity of 0.94 and a sensitivity of 0.57 (Area under the curve (AUC): 0.81[0.71; 0.91]). In the validation set (105 cases), the outcome of patients with > 34 breakpoints (11 events / 22 patients) was poorer (logrank test p < 0.001; Relative Risk (RR): 3.7 [1.73; 7.92]), than that of patients with < 34 breakpoints (19 events / 83 patients).Whereas genomic grade and KI67 had a significant prognostic value in univariate analysis in contrast to IHC3 that failed to have a statistical significant prognostic value in this series, the number of breakpoints remained the only significant parameter predictive of outcome (RR: 3.47, Confidence Interval (CI [1.29; 9.31], p = 0.014)) in multivariate analysis . Conclusion Genomic instability, defined herein as a high number of chromosomal breakpoints, in early stage luminal breast carcinoma is a stronger prognostic marker than proliferation. PMID:24143191

  5. Survival and prognostic factors of motor neuron disease in a multi-ethnic Asian population.

    PubMed

    Goh, Khean-Jin; Tian, Sharen; Shahrizaila, Nortina; Ng, Chiu-Wan; Tan, Chong-Tin

    2011-03-01

    Our objective was to determine the survival and prognostic factors of motor neuron disease (MND) in a multi-ethnic cohort of Malaysian patients. All patients seen at a university medical centre between January 2000 and December 2009 had their case records reviewed for demographic, clinical and follow-up data. Mortality data, if unavailable from records, were obtained by telephone interview of relatives or from the national mortality registry. Of the 73 patients, 64.4% were Chinese, 19.2% Malays and 16.4% Indians. Male: female ratio was 1.43: 1. Mean age at onset was 51.5 + 11.3 years. Onset was spinal in 75.3% and bulbar in 24.7% of the patients; 94.5% were ALS and 5.5% were progressive muscular atrophy (PMA). Overall median survival was 44.9 + 5.8 months. Ethnic Indians had shorter interval from symptom onset to diagnosis and shorter median survival compared to non-Indians. On Cox proportional hazards analysis, poor prognostic factors were bulbar onset, shorter interval from symptom onset to diagnosis and worse functional score at presentation. In conclusion, age of onset and median survival duration are similar to previous reports in Asians. Clinical features and prognostic factors are similar to other populations. In our cohort, ethnic Indians had more rapid disease course accounting for their shorter survival. PMID:21039118

  6. The Prognostic Value of Amplitude-Integrated EEG in Full-Term Neonates with Seizures

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Lili; Hou, Xinlin; Sun, Guoyu; Li, Lei; Liu, Yunzhe; Zhou, Congle; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yuejia

    2013-01-01

    Neonatal seizures pose a high risk for adverse outcome in survived infants. While the prognostic value of amplitude-integrated electroencephalogram (aEEG) is well established in neonates with encephalopathy and asphyxia, neonatal seizure studies focusing on the direct correlation between early aEEG measurement and subsequent neurologic outcome are scarce. In this study, the prognostic value of aEEG features was systematically analyzed in 143 full-term neonates to identify prognostic indicators of neurodevelopmental outcome. Neonatal aEEG features of background pattern, cyclicity, and seizure activity, as well as the etiology of neonatal seizures, were significantly associated with neurodevelopmental outcome at one year of age. aEEG background pattern was highly associated with neurologic outcomes (χ2 = 116.9), followed by aEEG cyclicity (χ2 = 87.2) and seizure etiology (χ2 = 79.3). Multiple linear regression showed that the four predictors explained 71.2% of the variation in neurological outcome, with standardized β coefficients of 0.44, 0.24, 0.22, and 0.14 for the predictors of aEEG background pattern, cyclicity, etiology, and aEEG seizure activity, respectively. This clinically applicable scoring system based on etiology and three aEEG indices would allow pediatricians to assess the risk for neurodevelopmental impairment and facilitate an early intervention in newborns developing seizures. PMID:24236076

  7. Stage-specific prognostic biomarkers in melanoma.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yabin; Lu, Jing; Chen, Guangdi; Ardekani, Gholamreza Safaee; Rotte, Anand; Martinka, Magdalena; Xu, Xuezhu; McElwee, Kevin J; Zhang, Guohong; Zhou, Youwen

    2015-02-28

    The melanoma staging system proposed by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) (which classifies melanoma patients into four clinical stages) is currently the most widely used tool for melanoma prognostication, and clinical management decision making by clinicians. However, multiple studies have shown that melanomas within specific AJCC Stages can exhibit varying progression and clinical outcomes. Thus, additional information, such as that provided by biomarkers is needed to assist in identifying the patients at risk of disease progression. Having previously found six independent prognostic biomarkers in melanoma, including BRAF, MMP2, p27, Dicer, Fbw7 and Tip60, our group has gone on to investigate if these markers are useful in risk stratification of melanoma patients in individual AJCC stages. First, we performed Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional multivariate analyses comparing prognostication power of these markers in 254 melanoma patients for whom the expression levels were known, identifying the best performing markers as candidates for stage-specific melanoma markers. We then verified the results by incorporating an additional independent cohort (87 patients) and in a combined cohort (341 patients). Our data indicate that BRAF and MMP2 are optimal prognostic biomarkers for AJCC Stages I and II, respectively (P = 0.010, 0.000, Log-rank test); whereas p27 emerged as a good marker for AJCC Stages III/IV (0.018, 0.046, respectively, log-rank test). Thus, our study has identified stage-specific biomarkers in melanoma, a finding which may assist clinicians in designing improved personalized therapeutic modalities. PMID:25784655

  8. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar; Cornhill, Dennis; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Mack, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    A systems view is necessary to detect, diagnose, predict, and mitigate adverse events during the flight of an aircraft. While most aircraft subsystems look for simple threshold exceedances and report them to a central maintenance computer, the vehicle integrated prognostic reasoner (VIPR) proactively generates evidence and takes an active role in aircraft-level health assessment. Establishing the technical feasibility and a design trade-space for this next-generation vehicle-level reasoning system (VLRS) is the focus of our work.

  9. Implant-Related Gingival Recession: Pilot Case Series Presents Novel Technique and Scoring Template.

    PubMed

    El Askary, Abd El Salam; Ghallab, Noha A; Tan, Shuh-Chern; Rosen, Paul S; Shawkat, Ahmad

    2016-07-01

    This article introduces a novel protocol for the predictable treatment of Class II division 2 implantrelated gingival recession and presents an innovative acrylic template for scoring the peri-implant soft-tissue gain, used before and after treatment. Ten patients with Class II division 2 single-implant-related gingival recession received combined double-papillary flap approximation and rotated subepithelial connective tissue grafting from the palate, along with any preferred optimal grafting technique that suits the type of preexisting defect. Clinical gingival recession was recorded using a scoring template at 4, 6, and 9 months postoperatively. At the end of the 9-month follow-up period, 80% of the cases showed improved soft-tissue coverage; two patients showed significant wound complications that were related to poor home-care measures. The scoring method used can be considered a diagnostic and prognostic tool for better understanding of implant-related gingival recession. PMID:27548399

  10. A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

  11. Impact of the Preoperative Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) Score on the Survival after Curative Surgery for Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Iseki, Yasuhito; Shibutani, Masatsune; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Nagahara, Hisashi; Ohtani, Hiroshi; Sugano, Kenji; Ikeya, Tetsuro; Muguruma, Kazuya; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Sakurai, Katsunobu; Hirakawa, Kosei

    2015-01-01

    Background Recently, the preoperative immune-nutritional status has been reported to correlate with the survival rate in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there have been no reports on the relationship between the controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score and the clinical outcome after curative surgery for CRC. We herein evaluated the prognostic significance of the CONUT score in patients with CRC, and then compared the accuracy of the CONUT score and the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) as a predictor of survival. Methods We retrospectively reviewed a database of 204 patients who underwent curative surgery for Stage II/III CRC. Patients were divided into two groups according to the CONUT score and the PNI. Results The five-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate was significantly higher at 92.7% in the low CONUT group, compared to a rate of 81.0% in the high CONUT group (p=0.0016). The five-year CSS was 71.2% in the low PNI group and 92.3% in the high PNI group, which showed a significant difference (p=0.0155). A multivariate analysis showed that lymph node metastasis and the CONUT score were independent risk factors for CSS. Conclusion This study suggested that the CONUT score is a strong independent predictor of the survival among CRC patients. PMID:26147805

  12. Prognostic significance of QRS duration and morphology.

    PubMed

    Brenyo, Andrew; Zaręba, Wojciech

    2011-01-01

    QRS duration and morphology, evaluated via a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), represent an opportunity to derive useful prognostic information regarding the risk of subsequent cardiac events or therapeutic outcomes. Prolonged QRS duration, and the presence of intraventricular conduction abnormalities, usually indicate the presence of changes in the myocardium due to underlying heart disease. Prolonged QRS duration is often associated with depressed ejection fraction or enlarged left ventricular volumes, but several studies have demonstrated that this simple ECG measure provides independent prognostic value, after adjusting for relevant clinical covariates. Post-infarction patients with prolonged QRS duration have a significantly increased risk of mortality, although data associating QRS prolongation specifically with sudden death is less supportive. In non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, there is no evidence that QRS duration has prognostic significance in predicting mortality or sudden death. Prolonged QRS duration, and especially presence of left bundle branch block, seems to predict a benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in both ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy patients. Therefore, QRS duration and morphology should not only be considered a predictor of death or sudden death in patients after myocardial infarction, and in those suspected of coronary artery disease, but also as a predictor of benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure, whether of an ischemic or non-ischemic origin. PMID:21305480

  13. New prognostic biomarkers in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Szudy-Szczyrek, Aneta; Szczyrek, Michał; Soroka-Wojtaszko, Maria; Hus, Marek

    2016-01-01

    Multiple myeloma is a malignant neoplastic disease, characterized by uncontrolled proliferation and accumulation of plasma cells in the bone marrow, which is usually connected with production of a monoclonal protein. It is the second most common hematologic malignancy. It constitutes approximately 1% of all cancers and 10% of hematological malignancies. Despite the huge progress that has been made in the treatment of multiple myeloma in the past 30 years including the introduction of new immunomodulatory drugs and proteasome inhibitors, it is still an incurable disease. According to current data, the five-year survival rate is 45%. Multiple myeloma is a very heterogeneous disease with a very diverse clinical course, which is expressed by differences in effectiveness of therapeutic strategies and ability to develop chemoresistance. This diversity implies the need to define risk stratification factors that would help to create personalized and optimized therapy and thereby improve treatment outcomes. Prognostic markers that aim to objectively evaluate the risk of a poor outcome, relapse and the patient's overall outcome are useful for this purpose. The existing, widely used prognostic classifications, such as the Salmon-Durie classification or ISS, do not allow for individualization of treatment. As a result of the development of diagnostic techniques, especially cytogenetics and molecular biology, we were able to discover a lot of new, more sensitive and specific prognostic factors. The paper presents recent reports on the role of molecular, cytogenetic and biochemical alterations in pathogenesis and prognosis of the disease. PMID:27463592

  14. Prognostic factors in neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Da Yong; Chong, Chul; Kim, Jae Weon; Park, Noh Hyun; Song, Yong Sang; Park, Sang Yoon

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the clinical and pathologic factors associated with survival in patients with neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma (NECC). Methods The records of 61 patients with NECC diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 at Seoul National University Hospital and the National Cancer Center were retrospectively reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used for analyses. Results Of the 61 patients, 67.2% were diagnosed at early stage (I to IIA) with a median age of 49 years. Of those, 78% underwent surgery and 75.6% received postoperative adjuvant treatment. For patients diagnosed at advanced stage, 60.0% received chemotherapy only and 25.0% received concurrent chemoradiation therapy. In the univariate analysis, advanced stage (77 vs. 40 months, P=0.013), tumor size ≥2 cm (133 vs. 47 months, P=0.002) and mixed tumor (101 vs. 34 months, P=0.004) were shown to be poor prognostic factors. In the multivariate analysis, tumor stage, tumor size and tumor homology were shown to be independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Of the total, 39.3% of the patients experienced recurrence, and 54.1% of the patients had metastasis. Of the patients diagnosed at early stage, 51.2% experienced recurrence. Conclusion Tumor stage, tumor size and tumor homology were found to be independent prognostic factors in patients with NECC. Even in patients diagnosed at early stage, recurrence and distant metastasis were frequently observed. PMID:27004202

  15. Sequential organ failure assessment scoring and prediction of patient's outcome in Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary care hospital

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Aditi; Palta, Sanjeev; Saroa, Richa; Palta, Anshu; Sama, Sonu; Gombar, Satinder

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: The objective was to determine the accuracy of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score in predicting outcome of patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Material and Methods: Forty-four consecutive patients between 15 and 80 years admitted to ICU over 8 weeks period were studied prospectively. Three patients were excluded. SOFA score was determined 24 h postadmission to ICU and subsequently every 48 h for the first 10 days. Patients were followed till discharge/death/transfer from the ICU. Initial SOFA score, highest and mean SOFA scores were calculated and correlated with mortality and duration of stay in ICU. Results: The mortality rate was 39% and the mean duration of stay in the ICU was 9 days. The maximum score in survivors (3.92 ± 2.17) was significantly lower than nonsurvivors (8.9 ± 3.45). The initial SOFA score had a strong statistical correlation with mortality. Cardiovascular score on day 1 and 3, respiratory score on day 7, and coagulation profile on day 3 correlated significantly with the outcome. Duration of the stay did not correlate with the survival (P = 0.461). Conclusion: SOFA score is a simple, but effective prognostic indicator and evaluator for patient progress in ICU. Day 1 SOFA can triage the patients into risk categories. For further management, mean and maximum score help determine the severity of illness and can act as a guide for the intensity of therapy required for each patient.

  16. Provision of, and patient satisfaction with, primary care services in a relatively affluent area and a relatively deprived area of Glasgow.

    PubMed Central

    Wyke, S; Campbell, G; Maciver, S

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a survey of the structure of general practice in two contrasting areas within Greater Glasgow health board: the south west area had a more deprived social profile at the 1981 census and higher than average all cause and selected major cause standardized mortality ratios than the health board as a whole while the north west area had a more affluent social profile at the 1981 census and lower than average all cause and selected major cause standardized mortality ratios. The general practice survey data gathered in 1989 were supplemented with data from a survey of residents of the localities in three age cohorts carried out in 1987-88, which provided information on use of services, as well as perceived accessibility of and satisfaction with them. Despite the more deprived social and mortality profile of the south west area, and greater use of services, few systematic differences in the structure of general practices were found in the two areas. These findings support other studies which suggest that the stereotype of poorly resourced, low quality primary care in inner city areas may apply in London, but not elsewhere. Respondents in both areas were equally satisfied with services and found them accessible. PMID:1419258

  17. Interpreting force concept inventory scores: Normalized gain and SAT scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coletta, Vincent P.; Phillips, Jeffrey A.; Steinert, Jeffrey J.

    2007-06-01

    Preinstruction SAT scores and normalized gains (G) on the force concept inventory (FCI) were examined for individual students in interactive engagement (IE) courses in introductory mechanics at one high school (N=335) and one university (N=292) , and strong, positive correlations were found for both populations ( r=0.57 and r=0.46 , respectively). These correlations are likely due to the importance of cognitive skills and abstract reasoning in learning physics. The larger correlation coefficient for the high school population may be a result of the much shorter time interval between taking the SAT and studying mechanics, because the SAT may provide a more current measure of abilities when high school students begin the study of mechanics than it does for college students, who begin mechanics years after the test is taken. In prior research a strong correlation between FCI G and scores on Lawson’s Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning for students from the same two schools was observed. Our results suggest that, when interpreting class average normalized FCI gains and comparing different classes, it is important to take into account the variation of students’ cognitive skills, as measured either by the SAT or by Lawson’s test. While Lawson’s test is not commonly given to students in most introductory mechanics courses, SAT scores provide a readily available alternative means of taking account of students’ reasoning abilities. Knowing the students’ cognitive level before instruction also allows one to alter instruction or to use an intervention designed to improve students’ cognitive level.

  18. Multiple comparisons for survival data with propensity score adjustment

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Hong; Lu, Bo

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the practical problem in clinical and observational studies where multiple treatment or prognostic groups are compared and the observed survival data are subject to right censoring. Two possible formulations of multiple comparisons are suggested. Multiple Comparisons with a Control (MCC) compare every other group to a control group with respect to survival outcomes, for determining which groups are associated with lower risk than the control. Multiple Comparisons with the Best (MCB) compare each group to the truly minimum risk group and identify the groups that are either with the minimum risk or the practically minimum risk. To make a causal statement, potential confounding effects need to be adjusted in the comparisons. Propensity score based adjustment is popular in causal inference and can effectively reduce the confounding bias. Based on a propensity-score-stratified Cox proportional hazards model, the approaches of MCC test and MCB simultaneous confidence intervals for general linear models with normal error outcome are extended to survival outcome. This paper specifies the assumptions for causal inference on survival outcomes within a potential outcome framework, develops testing procedures for multiple comparisons and provides simultaneous confidence intervals. The proposed methods are applied to two real data sets from cancer studies for illustration, and a simulation study is also presented. PMID:25663729

  19. An Optimizing Weight For Wrong Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donlon, Thomas F.

    This study empirically determined the optimizing weight to be applied to the Wrongs Total Score in scoring rubrics of the general form = R - kW, where S is the Score, R the Rights Total, k the weight and W the Wrongs Total, if reliability is to be maximized. As is well known, the traditional formula score rests on a theoretical framework which is…

  20. Item Response Modeling with Sum Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Timothy R.

    2013-01-01

    One of the distinctions between classical test theory and item response theory is that the former focuses on sum scores and their relationship to true scores, whereas the latter concerns item responses and their relationship to latent scores. Although item response theory is often viewed as the richer of the two theories, sum scores are still…

  1. Clinical Results and Prognostic Factors of Arthroscopic Surgeries for Discoid Lateral Menisci Tear: Analysis of 179 Cases with Minimum 2 Years Follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Ahn, Ji-Yong; Kim, Tae-Han; Jung, Bong-Sung; Ha, Sang-Ho; Lee, Bum-Sik; Chung, Jong-Won; Kim, Jong-Min

    2012-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical results and prognostic factors of arthroscopic surgeries for tears of the discoid lateral menisci. Materials and Methods From March 1997 to September 2005, 260 patients received arthroscopic surgeries due to discoid lateral menisci tears. Among these patients, 179 knees in 168 patients were followed up for at least 2 years and were enrolled into this study. The following prognostic factors were evaluated: sex, age, symptom duration, and type of meniscal tear. Visual analogue score (VAS), Lysholm score, and Ikeuchi grade were assessed as clinical results of arthroscopic surgeries. Results The mean VAS and Lysholm score improved at the last follow-up. According to the Ikeuchi grade, 104 cases were rated as excellent, 51 cases as good, and 23 cases as fair. Male sex (p<0.033), age younger than 20 years (p=0.0474), and symptom duration less than 12 months (p<0.044) were good prognostic factors. However, there was no correlation between tear types of discoid lateral menisci and clinical results. Conclusions Sex, age, and symptom duration could be significant prognostic factors of arthroscopic surgeries for tears of discoid lateral menisci. PMID:22708112

  2. Validation of the new graded prognostic assessment scale for brain metastases: a multicenter prospective study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Prognostic indexes are useful to guide tailored treatment strategies for cancer patients with brain metastasis (BM). We evaluated the new Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) scale in a prospective validation study to compare it with two published prognostic indexes. Methods A total of 285 newly diagnosed BM (n = 85 with synchronous BM) patients, accrued prospectively between 2000 and 2009, were included in this analysis. Mean age was 62 ± 12.0 years. The median KPS and number of BM was 70 (range, 20-100) and 3 (range, 1-50), respectively. The majority of primary tumours were lung (53%), or breast (17%) cancers. Treatment was administered to 255 (89.5%) patients. Only a minority of patients could be classified prospectively in a favourable prognostic class: GPA 3.5-4: 3.9%; recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) 1, 8.4% and Basic Score for BM (BSBM) 3, 9.1%. Mean follow-up (FU) time was 5.2 ± 4.7 months. Results During the period of FU, 225 (78.9%) patients died. The 6 months- and 1 year-OS was 36.9% and 17.6%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, performance status (P < 0.001), BSBM (P < 0.001), Center (P = 0.007), RPA (P = 0.02) and GPA (P = 0.03) were statistically significant for OS. The survival prediction performances' of all indexes were identical. Noteworthy, the significant OS difference observed within 3 months of diagnosis between the BSBM, RPA and GPA classes/groups was not observed after this cut-off time point. Harrell's concordance indexes C were 0.58, 0.61 and 0.58 for the GPA, BSBM and RPA, respectively. Conclusions Our data suggest that the new GPA index is a valid prognostic index. In this prospective study, the prediction performance was as good as the BSBM or RPA systems. These published indexes may however have limited long term prognostication capability. PMID:21366924

  3. Prognostic factors in polyarteritis nodosa and Churg-Strauss syndrome. A prospective study in 342 patients.

    PubMed

    Guillevin, L; Lhote, F; Gayraud, M; Cohen, P; Jarrousse, B; Lortholary, O; Thibult, N; Casassus, P

    1996-01-01

    We undertook this study to determine the clinical, biologic, immunologic, and therapeutic factors associated with the prognoses of polyarteritis nodosa (PAN) and Churg-Strauss syndrome (CSS). Three hundred forty-two patients (260 with PAN, 82 with CSS) followed from 1980 to 1993 were included in a prospective study on prognostic factors. Two hundred eighty-eight of these patients were included in the prospective studies on PAN and CSS. Items to be considered for analysis were collected at the time of diagnosis, during the acute phase of the disease. A survival curve was plotted for each clinical and biologic symptom observed in PAN or CSS. Each treatment arm of the prospective therapeutic trials was also tested: 1) prednisone (CS) + oral cyclophosphamide (CYC) + plasma exchanges (PE) versus CS E, 2) CS + PE versus CS, 3) CS + oral CY versus CS + pulse CY, 4) CS + pulse CY + PE versus CS + pulse CY in severe PAN and CSS, and 5) PE + antiviral agents after short-term CS in hepatitis B virus-related PAN. Of the parameters thus evaluated, the following had significant prognostic value and were responsible for higher mortality: proteinuria > 1 g/d (p < 0.0001; relative risk [RR] 3.6), renal insufficiency with serum creatinine > 1.58 mg/DL (p < 0.02; RR 1.86), GI tract involvement (p < 0.008. RR 2.83 for surgery). Cardiomyopathy and CNS involvement were associated with a RR of mortality of 2.18 and 1.76, respectively; these were not statistically significant. Similar survival rates were obtained with the prospectively tested therapies. The five-factors score (FFS) we established considered the prognostic factors creatinemia, proteinuria, cardiomyopathy, GI tract involvement, and CNS signs. Multivariate analysis showed that proteinuria (due to vascular or glomerular disease) and GI tract involvement were independent prognostic factors. When FFS = 0 (none of the 5 prognostic factors present), mortality at 5 years was 11.9%; when FFS = 1 (1 of the 5 factors present

  4. A Score Predicting Posttreatment Ambulatory Status in Patients Irradiated for Metastatic Spinal Cord Compression

    SciTech Connect

    Rades, Dirk Rudat, Volker; Veninga, Theo; Stalpers, Lukas J.A.; Basic, Hiba; Karstens, Johann H.; Hoskin, Peter J.; Schild, Steven E.

    2008-11-01

    Purpose: To create a scoring system to predict ambulatory status after radiotherapy (RT) for metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC). Methods and Materials: On the basis of a multivariate analysis of 2096 MSCC patients, a scoring system was developed. This included the five prognostic factors significantly associated with post-RT ambulatory status: primary tumor type, interval between tumor diagnosis and MSCC, visceral metastases, motor function before RT, and time developing motor deficits before RT. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the post-RT ambulatory rate (as a percentage) by 10. Total scores represented the sum of the scores for each factor and ranged between 21 and 44 points. Patients were divided into five groups according to this score. Results: The post-RT ambulatory rates were 6% (24 of 389) for patients with scores of {<=}28 points, 44% (121 of 278) for those with 29-31 points, 70% (212 of 303) for those with 32-34 points, 86% (315 of 266) for those with 35-37 points, and 99% (750 of 760) for those with {>=}38 points. The 3-month survival rates were 29%, 62%, 77%, 84%, and 98%, respectively. The 6-months survival rates were 6%, 31%, 42%, 61%, and 93%, respectively. Conclusions: Because patients with scores of {<=}28 points had poor functional outcome after RT and extraordinarily poor survival rates, short-course RT to decrease pain or best supportive care may be considered. Patients with scores of 29-37 points should be considered surgical candidates, because RT-alone results were not optimal. Patients with scores of {>=}38 points seem to have excellent results with RT alone.

  5. Sun exposure and melanoma prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    GANDINI, SARA; MONTELLA, MAURIZIO; AYALA, FABRIZIO; BENEDETTO, LUCIA; ROSSI, CARLO RICCARDO; VECCHIATO, ANTONELLA; CORRADIN, MARIA TERESA; DE GIORGI, VINCENZO; QUEIROLO, PAOLA; ZANNETTI, GUIDO; GIUDICE, GIUSEPPE; BORRONI, GIOVANNI; FORCIGNANÒ, ROSACHIARA; PERIS, KETTY; TOSTI, GIULIO; TESTORI, ALESSANDRO; TREVISAN, GIUSTO; SPAGNOLO, FRANCESCO; ASCIERTO, PAOLO A.

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have reported an association between sun exposure and the increased survival of patients with cutaneous melanoma (CM). The present study analyzed the association between ultraviolet (UV) light exposure and various prognostic factors in the Italian Clinical National Melanoma Registry. Clinical and sociodemographic features were collected, as well as information concerning sunbed exposure and holidays with sun exposure. Analyses were performed to investigate the association between exposure to UV and melanoma prognostic factors. Between December 2010 and December 2013, information was obtained on 2,738 melanoma patients from 38 geographically representative Italian sites. A total of 49% of the patients were >55 years old, 51% were men, 50% lived in the north of Italy and 57% possessed a high level of education (at least high school). A total of 8 patients had a family history of melanoma and 56% had a fair phenotype (Fitzpatrick skin type I or II). Of the total patients, 29% had been diagnosed with melanoma by a dermatologist; 29% of patients presented with a very thick melanoma (Breslow thickness, >2 mm) and 25% with an ulcerated melanoma. In total, 1% of patients had distant metastases and 13% exhibited lymph node involvement. Holidays with sun exposure 5 years prior to CM diagnosis were significantly associated with positive prognostic factors, including lower Breslow thickness (P<0.001) and absence of ulceration (P=0.009), following multiple adjustments for factors such as sociodemographic status, speciality of doctor performing the diagnosis and season of diagnosis. Sunbed exposure and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight were not significantly associated with Breslow thickness and ulceration. Holidays with sun exposure were associated with favorable CM prognostic factors, whereas no association was identified between sunbed use and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight with favorable CM prognostic factors. However, the results of the

  6. Methyl-CpG-binding domain sequencing reveals a prognostic methylation signature in neuroblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Decock, Anneleen; Ongenaert, Maté; Cannoodt, Robrecht; Verniers, Kimberly; De Wilde, Bram; Laureys, Geneviève; Van Roy, Nadine; Berbegall, Ana P.; Bienertova-Vasku, Julie; Bown, Nick; Clément, Nathalie; Combaret, Valérie; Haber, Michelle; Hoyoux, Claire; Murray, Jayne; Noguera, Rosa; Pierron, Gaelle; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Schulte, Johannes H.; Stallings, Ray L.; Tweddle, Deborah A.; De Preter, Katleen; Speleman, Frank; Vandesompele, Jo

    2016-01-01

    Accurate assessment of neuroblastoma outcome prediction remains challenging. Therefore, this study aims at establishing novel prognostic tumor DNA methylation biomarkers. In total, 396 low- and high-risk primary tumors were analyzed, of which 87 were profiled using methyl-CpG-binding domain (MBD) sequencing for differential methylation analysis between prognostic patient groups. Subsequently, methylation-specific PCR (MSP) assays were developed for 78 top-ranking differentially methylated regions and tested on two independent cohorts of 132 and 177 samples, respectively. Further, a new statistical framework was used to identify a robust set of MSP assays of which the methylation score (i.e. the percentage of methylated assays) allows accurate outcome prediction. Survival analyses were performed on the individual target level, as well as on the combined multimarker signature. As a result of the differential DNA methylation assessment by MBD sequencing, 58 of the 78 MSP assays were designed in regions previously unexplored in neuroblastoma, and 36 are located in non-promoter or non-coding regions. In total, 5 individual MSP assays (located in CCDC177, NXPH1, lnc-MRPL3-2, lnc-TREX1-1 and one on a region from chromosome 8 with no further annotation) predict event-free survival and 4 additional assays (located in SPRED3, TNFAIP2, NPM2 and CYYR1) also predict overall survival. Furthermore, a robust 58-marker methylation signature predicting overall and event-free survival was established. In conclusion, this study encompasses the largest DNA methylation biomarker study in neuroblastoma so far. We identified and independently validated several novel prognostic biomarkers, as well as a prognostic 58-marker methylation signature. PMID:26646589

  7. Combined Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Index for Relapse and Survival in Cytogenetically Normal Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Pastore, Friederike; Dufour, Annika; Benthaus, Tobias; Metzeler, Klaus H.; Maharry, Kati S.; Schneider, Stephanie; Ksienzyk, Bianka; Mellert, Gudrun; Zellmeier, Evelyn; Kakadia, Purvi M.; Unterhalt, Michael; Feuring-Buske, Michaela; Buske, Christian; Braess, Jan; Sauerland, Maria Cristina; Heinecke, Achim; Krug, Utz; Berdel, Wolfgang E.; Buechner, Thomas; Woermann, Bernhard; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Bohlander, Stefan K.; Marcucci, Guido; Spiekermann, Karsten; Bloomfield, Clara D.; Hoster, Eva

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Cytogenetically normal (CN) acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the largest and most heterogeneous cytogenetic AML subgroup. For the practicing clinician, it is difficult to summarize the prognostic information of the growing number of clinical and molecular markers. Our purpose was to develop a widely applicable prognostic model by combining well-established pretreatment patient and disease characteristics. Patients and Methods Two prognostic indices for CN-AML (PINA), one regarding overall survival (OS; PINAOS) and the other regarding relapse-free survival (RFS; PINARFS), were derived from data of 572 patients with CN-AML treated within the AML Cooperative Group 99 study (www.aml-score.org). Results On the basis of age (median, 60 years; range, 17 to 85 years), performance status, WBC count, and mutation status of NPM1, CEBPA, and FLT3-internal tandem duplication, patients were classified into the following three risk groups according to PINAOS and PINARFS: 29% of all patients and 32% of 381 responding patients had low-risk disease (5-year OS, 74%; 5-year RFS, 55%); 56% of all patients and 39% of responding patients had intermediate-risk disease (5-year OS, 28%; 5-year RFS, 27%), and 15% of all patients and 29% of responding patients had high-risk disease (5-year OS, 3%; 5-year RFS, 5%), respectively. PINAOS and PINARFS stratified outcome within European LeukemiaNet genetic groups. Both indices were confirmed on independent data from Cancer and Leukemia Group B/Alliance trials. Conclusion We have developed and validated, to our knowledge, the first prognostic indices specifically designed for adult patients of all ages with CN-AML that combine well-established molecular and clinical variables and that are easily applicable in routine clinical care. The integration of both clinical and molecular markers could provide a basis for individualized patient care through risk-adapted therapy of CN-AML. PMID:24711548

  8. Methyl-CpG-binding domain sequencing reveals a prognostic methylation signature in neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Decock, Anneleen; Ongenaert, Maté; Cannoodt, Robrecht; Verniers, Kimberly; De Wilde, Bram; Laureys, Geneviève; Van Roy, Nadine; Berbegall, Ana P; Bienertova-Vasku, Julie; Bown, Nick; Clément, Nathalie; Combaret, Valérie; Haber, Michelle; Hoyoux, Claire; Murray, Jayne; Noguera, Rosa; Pierron, Gaelle; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Schulte, Johannes H; Stallings, Ray L; Tweddle, Deborah A; De Preter, Katleen; Speleman, Frank; Vandesompele, Jo

    2016-01-12

    Accurate assessment of neuroblastoma outcome prediction remains challenging. Therefore, this study aims at establishing novel prognostic tumor DNA methylation biomarkers. In total, 396 low- and high-risk primary tumors were analyzed, of which 87 were profiled using methyl-CpG-binding domain (MBD) sequencing for differential methylation analysis between prognostic patient groups. Subsequently, methylation-specific PCR (MSP) assays were developed for 78 top-ranking differentially methylated regions and tested on two independent cohorts of 132 and 177 samples, respectively. Further, a new statistical framework was used to identify a robust set of MSP assays of which the methylation score (i.e. the percentage of methylated assays) allows accurate outcome prediction. Survival analyses were performed on the individual target level, as well as on the combined multimarker signature. As a result of the differential DNA methylation assessment by MBD sequencing, 58 of the 78 MSP assays were designed in regions previously unexplored in neuroblastoma, and 36 are located in non-promoter or non-coding regions. In total, 5 individual MSP assays (located in CCDC177, NXPH1, lnc-MRPL3-2, lnc-TREX1-1 and one on a region from chromosome 8 with no further annotation) predict event-free survival and 4 additional assays (located in SPRED3, TNFAIP2, NPM2 and CYYR1) also predict overall survival. Furthermore, a robust 58-marker methylation signature predicting overall and event-free survival was established. In conclusion, this study encompasses the largest DNA methylation biomarker study in neuroblastoma so far. We identified and independently validated several novel prognostic biomarkers, as well as a prognostic 58-marker methylation signature. PMID:26646589

  9. Particle filter-based prognostics: Review, discussion and perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jouin, Marine; Gouriveau, Rafael; Hissel, Daniel; Péra, Marie-Cécile; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2016-05-01

    Particle filters are of great concern in a large variety of engineering fields such as robotics, statistics or automatics. Recently, it has developed among Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) applications for diagnostics and prognostics. According to some authors, it has ever become a state-of-the-art technique for prognostics. Nowadays, around 50 papers dealing with prognostics based on particle filters can be found in the literature. However, no comprehensive review has been proposed on the subject until now. This paper aims at analyzing the way particle filters are used in that context. The development of the tool in the prognostics' field is discussed before entering the details of its practical use and implementation. Current issues are identified, analyzed and some solutions or work trails are proposed. All this aims at highlighting future perspectives as well as helping new users to start with particle filters in the goal of prognostics.

  10. Clinical features and prognostic factors in drowning children: a regional experience

    PubMed Central

    Son, Kyung Lae; Hwang, Su Kyeong

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the clinical features of children who have survived a water submersion incident, and to identify risk factors for prognosis. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients who experienced submersion between January 2005 and December 2014. The patients were classified into 2 groups, according to complications, and prognostic factors were evaluated. Results During the study period, 29 children experienced submersion (20 boys and 9 girls; mean age, 83.8±46.4 months). Submersion occurred most commonly in the summer, with the peak incidence in August. The most frequent Szpilman clinical score was grade 5 (13 patients; 44.8%), followed by grade 6 (7 patients; 24.1%), and grades 1 or 2 (3 patients; 10.3%). Five children (17.2%) in the poor prognosis group died or had hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, and the overall mortality rate was 6.9%. Poor prognosis after submersion was associated with lower consciousness levels (P=0.003), higher Szpilman scores (P=0.007), greater need for intubation and mechanical ventilator support (P=0.001), and longer duration of oxygen therapy (P=0.015). Poor prognosis was also associated with lower bicarbonate levels (P=0.038), as well as higher sodium, aspartate transaminase (AST), and alanine transaminase (ALT) levels (P=0.034, P=0.006, and P=0.005, respectively). Szpilman clinical scores were positively correlated with consciousness levels (r=0.489, P=0.002) and serum liver enzyme levels (AST and ALT; r=0.521, P=0.004). Conclusion We characterized the prognostic factors associated with submersion outcomes, using the Szpilman clinical score, which is comparable to consciousness level for predicting mortality. PMID:27279885

  11. Diagnostic and Prognostic Values of Noninvasive Predictors of Portal Hypertension in Patients with Alcoholic Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Il Young; Lim, Yoo Li; Choi, Dae Hee; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan; Baik, Soon Koo

    2015-01-01

    Portal hypertension is a direct consequence of hepatic fibrosis, and several hepatic fibrosis markers have been evaluated as a noninvasive alternative to the detection of portal hypertension and esophageal varices. In the present study, we compared the diagnostic and prognostic values of the noninvasive fibrosis markers in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. A total of 219 consecutive alcoholic cirrhosis patients were included. Biochemical scores and liver stiffness (LS) were compared with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). For the detection of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH; HVPG≥10 mmHg) in compensated patients, LS and LS–spleen diameter to platelet ratio score (LSPS) showed significantly better performance with area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.85 and 0.82, respectively, than aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4, Forns’ index, Lok index, (platelet count)2/[monocyte fraction (%) × segmented neutrophil fraction (%)], and platelet count-to-spleen diameter ratio (all P<0.001). However, for the detection of high-risk varices, none of the non-invasive tests showed reliable performance (AUCs of all investigated tests < 0.70). During a median follow-up period of 42.6 months, 46 patients with decompensated cirrhosis died. Lok index (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–1.22; P = 0.001) and FIB-4 (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01–1.10; P = 0.009) were independently associated with all-cause death in decompensated patients. Among the tested noninvasive markers, only Lok index significantly improved discrimination function of MELD score in predicting overall survival. In conclusion, LS and LSPS most accurately predict CSPH in patients with compensated alcoholic cirrhosis. In the prediction of overall survival in decompensated patients, however, Lok index is an independent prognostic factor and improves the predictive performance of MELD score. PMID:26196942

  12. The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score

    PubMed Central

    Kepler, Christopher K.; Vaccaro, Alexander R.; Schroeder, Gregory D.; Koerner, John D.; Vialle, Luiz R.; Aarabi, Bizhan; Rajasekaran, Shanmuganathan; Bellabarba, Carlo; Chapman, Jens R.; Kandziora, Frank; Schnake, Klaus J.; Dvorak, Marcel F.; Reinhold, Max; Oner, F. Cumhur

    2015-01-01

    Study Design Survey of 100 worldwide spine surgeons. Objective To develop a spine injury score for the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Methods Each respondent was asked to numerically grade the severity of each variable of the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Using the results, as well as limited input from the AOSpine Trauma Knowledge Forum, the Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score was developed. Results Beginning with 1 point for A1, groups A, B, and C were consecutively awarded an additional point (A1, 1 point; A2, 2 points; A3, 3 points); however, because of a significant increase in the severity between A3 and A4 and because the severity of A4 and B1 was similar, both A4 and B1 were awarded 5 points. An uneven stepwise increase in severity moving from N0 to N4, with a substantial increase in severity between N2 (nerve root injury with radicular symptoms) and N3 (incomplete spinal cord injury) injuries, was identified. Hence, each grade of neurologic injury was progressively given an additional point starting with 0 points for N0, and the substantial difference in severity between N2 and N3 injuries was recognized by elevating N3 to 4 points. Finally, 1 point was awarded to the M1 modifier (indeterminate posterolateral ligamentous complex injury). Conclusion The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score is an easy-to-use, data-driven metric that will allow for the development of a surgical algorithm to accompany the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. PMID:27190734

  13. The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score.

    PubMed

    Kepler, Christopher K; Vaccaro, Alexander R; Schroeder, Gregory D; Koerner, John D; Vialle, Luiz R; Aarabi, Bizhan; Rajasekaran, Shanmuganathan; Bellabarba, Carlo; Chapman, Jens R; Kandziora, Frank; Schnake, Klaus J; Dvorak, Marcel F; Reinhold, Max; Oner, F Cumhur

    2016-06-01

    Study Design Survey of 100 worldwide spine surgeons. Objective To develop a spine injury score for the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Methods Each respondent was asked to numerically grade the severity of each variable of the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Using the results, as well as limited input from the AOSpine Trauma Knowledge Forum, the Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score was developed. Results Beginning with 1 point for A1, groups A, B, and C were consecutively awarded an additional point (A1, 1 point; A2, 2 points; A3, 3 points); however, because of a significant increase in the severity between A3 and A4 and because the severity of A4 and B1 was similar, both A4 and B1 were awarded 5 points. An uneven stepwise increase in severity moving from N0 to N4, with a substantial increase in severity between N2 (nerve root injury with radicular symptoms) and N3 (incomplete spinal cord injury) injuries, was identified. Hence, each grade of neurologic injury was progressively given an additional point starting with 0 points for N0, and the substantial difference in severity between N2 and N3 injuries was recognized by elevating N3 to 4 points. Finally, 1 point was awarded to the M1 modifier (indeterminate posterolateral ligamentous complex injury). Conclusion The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score is an easy-to-use, data-driven metric that will allow for the development of a surgical algorithm to accompany the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. PMID:27190734

  14. Prognostic and Clinicopathological Value of Survivin in Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ya; Wang, Jianhong; Sui, Xiaohui; Li, Ying; Lu, Kang; Fang, Xiaosheng; Jiang, Yujie; Wang, Xin

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Up to date, survivin, a well-known inhibitor of apoptosis, has attracted considerable attention as a potential biomarker and therapeutic target in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Nevertheless, there still remains no consensus on heterogeneous results. Herein, a meta-analysis was performed to clarify a convincing significance of survivin status on prognosis and clinicopathology of DLBCL patients. Eligible studies were identified by searching Medline, Embase, Scopus, CNKI, and Wanfang databases (last updated on November 30, 2014). Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Heterogeneity and sensitivity were also analyzed. Moreover, Begg, Egger test, and funnel plots were applied to evaluate the publication bias. We finally included 17 eligible studies with the total number of 1352 patients in the meta-analysis. The pooled results showed that positive survivin expression in DLBCL was associated with inferior overall survival (OS) (HR: 1.880, 95% CI: 1.550–2.270) in patients. Moreover, a significant association was revealed between survivin expression and advanced clinical stage (III + IV) (OR: 0.611, 95% CI: 0.452–0.827), higher International Prognosis Index (IPI) score (Score 3–5) (OR: 0.559; 95% CI: 0.410–0.761), elevated serum lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR: 0.607, 95% CI: 0.444–0.831), presence of bone marrow involvement (OR: 2.127, 95% CI: 1.154–3.921) together with reduced complete remission (CR) rate (OR: 0.478, 95% CI: 0.345–0.662). The results suggest that survivin could be a useful prognostic biomarker, and a promising target for DLBCL therapeutic intervention. Considering limited HR data adjusted for standard prognostic variables could be retrieved, future high-quality studies will be needed in evaluating the independent prognostic value of survivin expression in DLBCL. PMID:26356696

  15. Prognostic evaluation in obese patients using a dedicated multipinhole cadmium-zinc telluride SPECT camera.

    PubMed

    De Lorenzo, Andrea; Peclat, Thais; Amaral, Ana Carolina; Lima, Ronaldo S L

    2016-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of myocardial perfusion SPECT obtained in CZT cameras (CZT-SPECT) with multipinhole collimation in obese patients. CZT-SPECT may be technically challenging in the obese, and its prognostic value remains largely unknown. Patients underwent single-day, rest/stress (supine and prone) imaging. Images were visually inspected and graded as poor, fair or good/excellent. Summed stress and difference scores (SSS and SDS, respectively) were converted into percentages of total perfusion defect and of ischemic defect by division by the maximum possible score. Obesity was defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m(2) and classified as class I (BMI 30-34.9 kg/m(2)), II (BMI 35-39.9 kg/m(2)), or III (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m(2)). Patients were followed-up by telephone interview for the occurrence of all-cause death, myocardial infarction or revascularization. A Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the independent predictors of death. Among 1396 patients, 365 (26.1 %) were obese (mean BMI 33.9 ± 3.6; 17.5 % class I, 3.4 % class II, and 3.4 % class III). Image quality was good/excellent in 94.5 % of the obese patients. The annualized mortality rates were not significantly different among obese and non-obese patients, being <1 % with normal CZT-SPECT, and increased with the degree of scan abnormality in both obese and non-obese patients. Age, the use of pharmacologic stress and an abnormal CZT-SPECT, but not obesity, were independent predictors of death. In obese patients, single-day rest/stress CZT-SPECT with a multipinhole camera provides prognostic discrimination with high image quality. PMID:26424491

  16. Gene profiling and circulating tumor cells as biomarker to prognostic of patients with locoregional breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Kuniyoshi, Renata K; Gehrke, Flávia de Sousa; Alves, Beatriz C A; Vilas-Bôas, Viviane; Coló, Anna E; Sousa, Naiara; Nunes, João; Fonseca, Fernando L A; Del Giglio, Auro

    2015-09-01

    The gene profile of primary tumors, as well as the identification of circulating tumor cells (CTCs), can provide important prognostic and predictive information. In this study, our objective was to perform tumor gene profiling (TGP) in combination with CTC characterization in women with nonmetastatic breast cancer. Biological samples (from peripheral blood and tumors) from 167 patients diagnosed with stage I, II, and III mammary carcinoma, who were also referred for adjuvant/neoadjuvant chemotherapy, were assessed for the following parameters: (a) the presence of CTCs identified by the expression of CK-19 and c-erbB-2 in the peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) fraction by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) and (b) the TGP, which was determined by analyzing the expression of 21 genes in paraffin-embedded tissue samples by quantitative multiplex RT-PCR with the Plexor® system. We observed a statistically significant correlation between the progression-free interval (PFI) and the clinical stage (p = 0.000701), the TGP score (p = 0.006538), and the presence of hormone receptors in the tumor (p = 0.0432). We observed no correlation between the PFI and the presence or absence of CK-19 or HER2 expression in the PBMC fraction prior to the start of treatment or in the two following readouts. Multivariate analysis revealed that only the TGP score significantly correlated with the PFI (p = 0.029247). The TGP is an important prognostic variable for patients with locoregional breast cancer. The presence of CTCs adds no prognostic value to the information already provided by the TGP. PMID:25976504

  17. Incremental prognostic value of computed tomography in stroke: rationale and design of the IMPACTS study.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ji Won; Hur, Jin; Choi, Sang Il; Chun, Eun Ju; Kang, Joon-Won; Jin, Gong Yong; Kim, Eun Young; Yong, Hwan Seok; Kang, Eun-Ju; Han, Kyunghwa; Lee, Hoon-Suk; Choi, Byoung Wook

    2016-06-01

    This study was designed to determine the prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in ischemic stroke patients and to identify any incremental risk stratification benefits of CCTA findings compared with coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) and traditional Framingham risk scores (FRS) in ischemic stroke patients without chest pain. IMPACTS is a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study in which at least seven centers in Korea will participate. All participants will be enrolled in this study after providing informed consent. Nine hundred total ischemic stroke patients without chest pain will be enrolled and will undergo CACS and CCTA. All participants will be followed-up for a minimum of 24 months to determine the endpoints. The primary endpoint will be occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular events requiring hospitalization and revascularization either by percutaneous coronary intervention or by coronary artery bypass graft after 90 days of index testing during the follow-up period. Patient enrollment should be completed within 2.5 years. We plan to analyze and identify the CCTA predictors of MACEs. In addition, we will compare several models used to assess independent relationships between the variables and MACEs using a shared frailty model and therefore determine the incremental prognostic value of CCTA findings compared with either the CACS or FRS. The results of IMPACTS will provide valuable information for risk stratification with CCTA in ischemic stroke patients without chest pain. PMID:26910046

  18. Reduced expression and prognostic implication of inhibitor of growth 4 in human osteosarcoma

    PubMed Central

    ZHAO, DAHANG; LIU, XIANGJIE; ZHANG, YUNGE; DING, ZHAOMING; DONG, FENG; XU, HONGWEI; WANG, BAOXIN; WANG, WENBO

    2016-01-01

    Osteosarcoma is the most prevalent type of primary malignant bone tumor. Inhibitor of growth 4 (ING4) has been demonstrated to function as a tumor suppressor through multiple pathways, and is its expression is understood to be suppressed or reduced in various malignancies. The present study aimed to investigate the expression of ING4 and to determine its prognostic value in osteosarcoma tissue. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue microarrays were analyzed, and contained 41 osteosarcoma specimens and 11 normal bone tissue specimens with duplicate cores. ING4 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemical staining. The association between ING4 expression in the osteosarcoma and normal bone tissues was analyzed, in addition to the association between ING4 expression and Enneking classification of the osteosarcoma tissues. A significant statistical difference was observed in the ING4 immunohistochemical staining score between the osteosarcoma and normal bone tissues (P<0.001). Furthermore, a significant negative correlation was detected between the ING4 immunohistochemical staining scores and the Enneking classification results of the 41 osteosarcoma tissues (P=0.002). Low expression of ING4 was observed in the osteosarcoma specimens, and this reduced expression of ING4 was negatively correlated with Enneking classification. Thus, the results of the present study indicate that ING4 may serve as a promising prognostic mark