Comparison of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting mortality in critically ill patients*.

PubMed

Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Kramer, Andrew A; Rohs, Thomas; Hanna, Susan; Sadaka, Farid; O'Brien, Jacklyn; Bible, Shonna; Dickess, Stacy M; Foss, Michelle

2015-02-01

Impaired consciousness has been incorporated in prediction models that are used in the ICU. The Glasgow Coma Scale has value but is incomplete and cannot be assessed in intubated patients accurately. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score may be a better predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Thirteen ICUs at five U.S. hospitals. One thousand six hundred ninety-five consecutive unselected ICU admissions during a six-month period in 2012. Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score were recorded within 1 hour of admission. Baseline characteristics and physiologic components of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system, as well as mortality were linked to Glasgow Coma Scale/Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score information. None. We recruited 1,695 critically ill patients, of which 1,645 with complete data could be linked to data in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting ICU mortality using the Glasgow Coma Scale was 0.715 (95% CI, 0.663-0.768) and using the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.694-0.790), statistically different (p = 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant difference was found for predicting hospital mortality (p = 0.078). The respiratory and brainstem reflex components of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score showed a much wider range of mortality than the verbal component of Glasgow Coma Scale. In multivariable models, the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was more useful than the Glasgow Coma Scale for predicting mortality. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score might be a better prognostic tool of ICU mortality than the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients, most likely a result of incorporating brainstem reflexes and respiration into the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score.

Glasgow Prognostic Score is a predictor of perioperative and long-term outcome in patients with only surgically treated esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Vashist, Yogesh K; Loos, Julian; Dedow, Josephine; Tachezy, Michael; Uzunoglu, Guentac; Kutup, Asad; Yekebas, Emre F; Izbicki, Jakob R

2011-04-01

Systemic inflammation (SI) plays a pivotal role in cancer. C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin as parameters of SI form the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). The purpose of the study was to evaluate the potential prognostic role of GPS in a homogeneous population of esophageal cancer (EC) patients undergoing only resection. GPS was evaluated on the basis of admission blood sample taken before surgery. Patients with a CRP < 10 mg/L and albumin > 35 g/L were allocated to GPS0 group. If only CRP was increased or albumin decreased patients were allocated to the GPS1 and patients in whom CRP was ≥10 mg/L and albumin level ≤35 g/L were classified as GPS2. GPS was correlated to clinicopathological parameters and clinical outcome. Increasing GPS significantly correlated with more aggressive tumor biology in terms of tumor size (P < 0.001), presence of regional (P = 0.01) and nonregional lymph node metastasis (P = 0.02), and higher tumor recurrence rate (P < 0.001). Furthermore, GPS was identified as an independent prognosticator of perioperative morbidity (odds ratio 1.9; P = 0.03). In addition, a gradual decrease in disease-free and overall survival was evident between the three GPS subgroups. Survival differences between the GPS groups remained apparent even after stratification of the study population to underlying tumor type and nodal status. GPS was identified as a strong prognosticator of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio 2.5; P < 0.001) and survival (hazard ratio 3.0; P < 0.001) in EC. GPS represents a strong prognosticator of perioperative morbidity and long-term outcome in resected EC patients without neoadjuvant or adjuvant treatment.

Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

PubMed

Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol

2009-11-01

Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

Inflammation-based prognostic score and number of lymph node metastases are independent prognostic factors in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Kaneko, Susumu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

2010-08-01

Few studies have investigated whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is useful for postoperative prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein level (>10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/l) were assigned to GPS2. Patients with one or no abnormal value were assigned to GPS1 or GPS0. A new scoring system was constructed using independent prognostic variables and was evaluated on whether it could be used to dictate the choice of clinical options. 65 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases were found to be independent prognostic variables. The scoring system comprising GPS and the number of lymph node metastases was found to be effective in the prediction of a long-term outcome (p < 0.0001). Preoperative GPS may be useful for postoperative prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases could be used to identify a subgroup of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who are eligible for radical resection but show poor prognosis.

Anti-epidermal or anti-vascular endothelial growth factor as first-line metastatic colorectal cancer in modified Glasgow prognostic score 2' patients

PubMed Central

Dréanic, Johann; Dhooge, Marion; Barret, Maximilien; Brezault, Catherine; Mir, Olivier; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

2015-01-01

Background In metastatic colorectal cancer, the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) has been approved as an independent prognostic indicator of survival. No data existed on poor prognosis patients treated with molecular-targeted agents. Methods From January 2007 to February 2012, patients with metastatic colorectal cancer and poor predictive survival score (mGPS = 2), treated with 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy in addition to an anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) or anti-vascular epidermal growth factor (VEGF) therapy, were included to assess the interest of targeted therapy within mGPS = 2' patients. Results A total of 27 mGPS = 2' patients were included and received a 5-fluorouracil-based systemic chemotherapy in addition to an anti-EGFR treatment (cetuximab; n = 18) or an anti-VEGF treatment (bevacizumab; n = 9). Median follow-up was 12.1 months (interquartile range 4.9–22). Patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status 1, 2, and 3 in 66% (n = 18), 26% (n = 7), and 8% (n = 2), respectively. Comparing anti-EGFR and anti-VEGF groups, median progression-free survival was 3.9 and 15.4 months, respectively, and was significantly different (P = 0.046). Conversely, the median overall survival was not significantly different between the two groups (P = 0.15). Conclusion Our study confirmed the poor survival of patients with mGPS = 2 despite the use of targeted therapy and identified the superiority of an anti-VEGF treatment in progression-free survival, without a significant benefit in the overall survival compared with the anti-EGFR therapy. Our results deserved confirmation by a prospective clinical trial. PMID:26401469

Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score is Associated With Risk of Recurrence in Bladder Cancer Patients After Radical Cystectomy: A Multicenter Experience.

PubMed

Ferro, Matteo; De Cobelli, Ottavio; Buonerba, Carlo; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Capece, Marco; Bruzzese, Dario; Autorino, Riccardo; Bottero, Danilo; Cioffi, Antonio; Matei, Deliu Victor; Caraglia, Michele; Borghesi, Marco; De Berardinis, Ettore; Busetto, Gian Maria; Giovannone, Riccardo; Lucarelli, Giuseppe; Ditonno, Pasquale; Perdonà, Sisto; Bove, Pierluigi; Castaldo, Luigi; Hurle, Rodolfo; Musi, Gennaro; Brescia, Antonio; Olivieri, Michele; Cimmino, Amelia; Altieri, Vincenzo; Damiano, Rocco; Cantiello, Francesco; Serretta, Vincenzo; De Placido, Sabino; Mirone, Vincenzo; Sonpavde, Guru; Terracciano, Daniela

2015-10-01

Recently, many studies explored the role of inflammation parameters in the prognosis of urinary cancers, but the results were not consistent. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), a systemic inflammation marker, is a prognostic marker in various types of cancers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the usefulness of the preoperative mGPS as predictor of recurrence-free (RFS), overall (OS), and cancer-specific (CSS) survivals in a large cohort of urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) patients.A total of 1037 patients with UBC were included in this study with a median follow-up of 22 months (range 3-60 months). An mGPS = 0 was observed in 646 patients (62.3%), mGPS = 1 in 297 patients (28.6 %), and mGPS = 2 in 94 patients (9.1%).In our study cohort, subjects with an mGPS equal to 2 had a significantly shorter median RFS compared with subjects with mGPS equal to 1 (16 vs 19 months, hazard ratio [HR] 1.54, 95% CI 1.31-1.81, P < 0.001) or with subjects with mGPS equal to 0 (16 vs 29 months, HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.86-3.05, P < 0.001). The association between mGPS and RFS was confirmed by weighted multivariate Cox model. Although in univariate analysis higher mGPS was associated with lower OS and CSS, this association disappeared in multivariate analysis where only the presence of lymph node-positive bladder cancer and T4 stage were predictors of worse prognosis for OS and CSS.In conclusion, the mGPS is an easily measured and inexpensive prognostic marker that was significantly associated with RFS in UBC patients.

Outcome in patients with bacterial meningitis presenting with a minimal Glasgow Coma Scale score

PubMed Central

Lucas, Marjolein J.; Brouwer, Matthijs C.; van der Ende, Arie

2014-01-01

Objective: In bacterial meningitis, a decreased level of consciousness is predictive for unfavorable outcome, but the clinical features and outcome in patients presenting with a minimal score on the Glasgow Coma Scale are unknown. Methods: We assessed the incidence, clinical characteristics, and outcome of patients with bacterial meningitis presenting with a minimal score on the Glasgow Coma Scale from a nationwide cohort study of adults with community-acquired bacterial meningitis in the Netherlands from 2006 to 2012. Results: Thirty of 1,083 patients (3%) presented with a score of 3 on the Glasgow Coma Scale. In 22 of 30 patients (73%), the minimal Glasgow Coma Scale score could be explained by use of sedative medication or complications resulting from meningitis such as seizures, cerebral edema, and hydrocephalus. Systemic (86%) and neurologic (47%) complications occurred frequently, leading to a high proportion of patients with unfavorable outcome (77%). However, 12 of 30 patients (40%) survived and 7 patients (23%) had a good functional outcome, defined as a score of 5 on the Glasgow Outcome Scale. Patients presenting with a minimal Glasgow Coma Scale score on admission and bilaterally absent pupillary light responses, bilaterally absent corneal reflexes, or signs of septic shock on admission all died. Conclusions: Patients with community-acquired bacterial meningitis rarely present with a minimal score on the Glasgow Coma Scale, but this condition is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. However, 1 out of 5 of these severely ill patients will make a full recovery, stressing the continued need for aggressive supportive care in these patients. PMID:25340065

The relationship between nutritional status and the Glasgow prognostic score in patients with cancer of the esophagus and stomach.

PubMed

da Silva, Jacqueline Braga; Maurício, Sílvia Fernandes; Bering, Tatiana; Correia, Maria Isabel T D

2013-01-01

A relationship between weight loss and inflammation has been described in patients with cancer. In the present study, the relationship between subjective global assessment (SGA) and the severity of inflammation, as defined by Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), as well as the relationship of both of these measures with the presence of complications and survival time, was assessed. In addition, we compared the diagnosis given by SGA with parameters of nutritional assessment, such as body mass index, triceps skinfold, midarm circumference (MAC), midarm muscle circumference (MAMC), phase angle (PA), adductor pollicis muscle thickness (APMT), and handgrip strength (HGS). According to the SGA, the nutritional status was associated with the GPS (P < 0.05), and both the SGA and GPS were associated with the presence of complications. However, the GPS [area under the curve (AUC): 0.77, P < 0.05, confidence interval (CI) = 0.580, 0.956] seems to be more accurate in identifying complications than the SGA (AUC: 0.679, P < 0.05, CI = 0.426, 0.931). Only GPS was associated with survival time. Comparing the different nutritional assessment methods with the SGA suggested that the MAC, MAMC, APMT, PA, and HGS parameters may be helpful in differentiating between nourished and malnourished patients, if new cutoffs are adopted.

The relationship between Glasgow Prognostic Score and serum tumor markers in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Jiang, Ai-Gui; Chen, Hong-Lin; Lu, Hui-Yu

2015-05-10

Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) has been reported as a powerful prognostic tool for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between GPS and prognosis related tumor markers in patients with advanced NSCLC. We included 138 advanced NSCLC patients and twenty healthy controls in the study. GPS was calculated by combined serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin. Three serum tumor markers, which included cytokeratin 19 fragment antigen 21-1 (CYFRA21-1), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and tissue polypeptide specific antigen (TPS), were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). GPS and tumor markers were all assessed before chemotherapy. All patients received at least 2 courses of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. After that, 2 to 5 years follow-up was conducted. Median levels of CYFRA21-1 were 1.5 ng/ml (0.1-3.1 ng/ml) in healthy controls, and 4.6 ng/ml (0.7-35.2 ng/ml) in GPS 0 advanced NSCLC, 11.2 ng/ml (0.4-89.2) ng/ml in GPS 1 advanced NSCLC, and 15.7 ng/ml (2.9-134.6 ng/ml) in GPS 2 advanced NSCLC, respectively. Median levels of CYFRA21-1 were higher in NSCLC patients than in healthy controls, and CYFRA21-1 increased gradually according to GPS category in NSCLC patients (P< 0.05). Similar results were found for median levels of CEA and TPS in healthy controls and NSCLC patients (P < 0.05). In NSCLC patients, positive correlations were found between CYFRA21-1 and GPS, CEA and GPS, TPS and GPS. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient were 0.67 (P < 0.05), 0.61 (P < 0.05) and 0.55 (P < 0.05), respectively. Survival analyses showed GPS was an independent prognostic factor for advanced NSCLC. CYFRA21-1(>3.3 ng/ml) and TPS (>80 U/l) were related with the prognosis of advanced NSCLC by univariate analyses, but multivariate analyses showed CYFRA21-1, TPS and CEA were not the independent prognostic factors for advanced NSCLC. Our results showed GPS were positive correlated with CYFRA21

Immunization-based scores as independent prognostic predictors in soft tissue sarcoma patients

PubMed Central

Jiang, Shan-Shan; Jiang, Long; Weng, De-Sheng; Li, Yuan-fang; Pan, Qiu-Zhong; Zhao, Jing-Jing; Tang, Yan; Zhou, Zhi-Wei; Xia, Jian-Chuan

2017-01-01

Background: The purpose of this study was to examine and compare the prognostic value of different immunization-based scoring systems in patients with soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Methods: We conducted a retrospective study evaluating a cohort of 165 patients diagnosed with STS between July 2007 and July 2014. The relative Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) of these patients was calculated using 3 different systems: the traditional GPS system (tGPS), the modified GPS system 1 (m1GPS), and the modified GPS system 2 (m2GPS). Then, we evaluated the relationships between each GPS system and clinicopathological characteristics. The mean follow-up for survivors in the cohort was 73.7 months as of March 2015. Results: The most favorable overall survival (OS) rate was associated with the score 0 groups, and the poorest progression-free survival (PFS) rate was associated with the score 2 groups, regardless of which system was used to calculate the score. Specifically, the m1GPS provided the greatest accuracy in predicting OS and PFS. Moreover, the same effect was observed in a separate analysis restricted to patients with metastases. Remarkably, in patients with a score of 2 as measured by all 3 systems, local treatment resulted in a poorer prognosis compared to patients with a score of 2 who did not receive local treatment. Conclusion: The GPS is a valuable prognostic marker and has the capability to predict the appropriate treatment strategy for STS patients with metastases. The modified GPS systems demonstrated superior prognostic and predictive value compared with the traditional GPS system. PMID:28367240

The Glasgow Prognostic Score at the Time of Palliative Esophageal Stent Insertion is a Predictive Factor of 30-Day Mortality and Overall Survival.

PubMed

Driver, Robert J; Handforth, Catherine; Radhakrishna, Ganesh; Bennett, Michael I; Ford, Alexander C; Everett, Simon M

2018-03-01

Optimizing the timing of esophageal stent insertion is a challenge, partly due to difficulty predicting survival in advanced malignancy. The Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) is a validated tool for predicting survival in a number of cancers. To assess the utility of the GPS in predicting 30-day mortality and overall survival postesophageal stent insertion. Patients at a tertiary referral center who had received an esophageal stent for palliation of dysphagia were included if they had a measurement of albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the week preceding the procedure (n=209). Patients with both an elevated CRP (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/L) were given a GPS score of 2 (GPS2). Patients with only one of these abnormalities were assigned as GPS1 and those with normal CRP and albumin were assigned as GPS0. Clinical and pathologic parameters were also collected to assess for potential confounding factors in the survival analysis. Increasing GPS was associated with 30-day mortality; for patients with GPS0, 30-day mortality was 5% (2/43), for GPS1 it was 23% (26/114), and for GPS2 it was 33% (17/52). The adjusted hazard ratio for overall poststent mortality was 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4; P=0.02) for GPS1 and 2.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.8; P<0.001) for GPS2 patients compared with GPS0. GPS is an independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and overall survival after esophageal stent insertion. It is a potential adjunct to clinical assessment in identifying those patients at high-risk of short-term mortality poststent.

A Comparison of Systemic Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores in Patients on Regular Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Kato, Akihiko; Tsuji, Takayuki; Sakao, Yukitoshi; Ohashi, Naro; Yasuda, Hideo; Fujimoto, Taiki; Takita, Takako; Furuhashi, Mitsuyoshi; Kumagai, Hiromichi

2013-01-01

Background/Aims Systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores have prognostic power in patients with cancer, independently of tumor stage and site. Although inflammatory status is associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients, it remains to be determined as to whether these composite scores are useful in predicting clinical outcomes. Methods We calculated the 6 prognostic scores [Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic index (PI) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), which have been established as a useful scoring system in cancer patients. We enrolled 339 patients on regular HD (age: 64 ± 13 years; time on HD: 129 ± 114 months; males/females = 253/85) and followed them for 42 months. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was used to determine which scoring system was more predictive of mortality. Results Elevated GPS, mGPS, NLR, PLR, PI and PNI were all associated with total mortality, independent of covariates. If GPS was raised, mGPS, NLR, PLR and PI were also predictive of all-cause mortality and/or hospitalization. GPS and PNI were associated with poor nutritional status. Using overall mortality as an endpoint, the area under the curve (AUC) was significant for a GPS of 0.701 (95% CI: 0.637-0.765; p < 0.01) and for a PNI of 0.616 (95% CI: 0.553-0.768; p = 0.01). However, AUC for hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dl) was comparable to that of GPS (0.695, 95% CI: 0.632-0.759; p < 0.01). Conclusion GPS, based on serum albumin and highly sensitive C-reactive protein, has the most prognostic power for mortality prediction among the prognostic scores in HD patients. However, as the determination of serum albumin reflects mortality similarly to GPS, other composite combinations are needed to provide additional clinical utility beyond that of albumin alone in HD patients. PMID:24403910

Validation of prognostic scores for clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding.

PubMed

Motola-Kuba, Miguel; Escobedo-Arzate, Angélica; Tellez-Avila, Félix; Altamirano, José; Aguilar-Olivos, Nancy; González-Angulo, Alberto; Zamarripa-Dorsey, Felipe; Uribe, Misael; Chávez-Tapia, Norberto C

Background. The Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford, and AIMS65 are useful and validated scoring systems for predicting the outcomes of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. However, there are no validated evidence for using them to predict outcomes on variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of different nonvariceal bleeding scores with other liver-specific scoring systems in cirrhotic patients. A retrospective multicenter study that included 160 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. The AUROC's to predict in-hospital mortality, and rebleeding, were analyzed for each scoring system. Overall in-hospital mortality occurred in 13% and in-hospital rebleeding in 12% of patients. The systems with the best AUROC value for predicting mortality were MELD (0.828; 95% CI 0.748-0.909), and AIMS65 (0.817; 95% CI 0.724-0.909). The best score systems for predicting rebleeding were Glasgow-Blatchford (0.756; 95% CI 0.640- 0.827), and Rockall (0.691; 95% CI 0.580-0.802). In addition to liver-specific scores, the AIMS65 score is accurate for predicting in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Other scoring systems might be useful for predicting significant clinical outcomes in these patients.

Evaluation of an inflammation-based prognostic score in patients with metastatic renal cancer.

PubMed

Ramsey, Sara; Lamb, Gavin W A; Aitchison, Michael; Graham, John; McMillan, Donald C

2007-01-15

Recently, it was shown that an inflammation-based prognostic score, the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), provides additional prognostic information in patients with advanced cancer. The objective of the current study was to examine the value of the GPS compared with established scoring systems in predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with metastatic renal cancer. One hundred nineteen patients who underwent immunotherapy for metastatic renal cancer were recruited. The Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) score and the Metastatic Renal Carcinoma Comprehensive Prognostic System (MRCCPS) score were calculated as described previously. Patients who had both an elevated C-reactive protein level (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/L) were allocated a GPS of 2. Patients who had only 1 of those 2 biochemical abnormalities were allocated a GPS of 1. Patients who had neither abnormality were allocated a GPS of 0. On multivariate analysis of significant individual factors, only calcium (hazard ratio [HR], 3.21; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.51-6.83; P = .002), white cell count (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.17-2.35; P = .004), albumin (HR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.38-5.03; P = .003), and C-reactive protein (HR, 2.85; 95% CI; 1.49-5.45; P = .002) were associated independently with cancer-specific survival. On multivariate analysis of the different scoring systems, the MSKCC (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.22-2.88; P = .004), the MRCCPS (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.97-2.09; P = .071), and the GPS (HR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.51-3.67; P < .001) were associated independently with cancer-specific survival. An inflammation-based prognostic score (GPS) predicted survival independent of established scoring systems in patients with metastatic renal cancer.

The AIMS65 score compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford score in predicting outcomes in upper GI bleeding.

PubMed

Hyett, Brian H; Abougergi, Marwan S; Charpentier, Joseph P; Kumar, Navin L; Brozovic, Suzana; Claggett, Brian L; Travis, Anne C; Saltzman, John R

2013-04-01

We previously derived and validated the AIMS65 score, a mortality prognostic scale for upper GI bleeding (UGIB). To validate the AIMS65 score in a different patient population and compare it with the Glasgow-Blatchford risk score (GBRS). Retrospective cohort study. Adults with a primary diagnosis of UGIB. inpatient mortality. composite clinical endpoint of inpatient mortality, rebleeding, and endoscopic, radiologic or surgical intervention; blood transfusion; intensive care unit admission; rebleeding; length of stay; timing of endoscopy. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for each score. Of the 278 study patients, 6.5% died and 35% experienced the composite clinical endpoint. The AIMS65 score was superior in predicting inpatient mortality (AUROC, 0.93 vs 0.68; P < .001), whereas the GBRS was superior in predicting blood transfusions (AUROC, 0.85 vs 0.65; P < .01) The 2 scores were similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint (AUROC, 0.62 vs 0.68; P = .13) as well as the secondary outcomes. A GBRS of 10 and 12 or more maximized the sum of the sensitivity and specificity for inpatient mortality and rebleeding, respectively. The cutoff was 2 or more for the AIMS65 score for both outcomes. Retrospective, single-center study. The AIMS65 score is superior to the GBRS in predicting inpatient mortality from UGIB, whereas the GBRS is superior for predicting blood transfusion. Both scores are similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint and other outcomes in clinical care and resource use. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of inflammation-based scores in patients with osteosarcoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Bangjian; Huang, Yujing; Sun, Yuanjue; Zhang, Jianjun; Yao, Yang; Shen, Zan; Xiang, Dongxi; He, Aina

2016-01-01

Systemic inflammation responses have been associated with cancer development and progression. C-reactive protein (CRP), Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), and neutrophil-platelet score (NPS) have been shown to be independent risk factors in various types of malignant tumors. This retrospective analysis of 162 osteosarcoma cases was performed to estimate their predictive value of survival in osteosarcoma. All statistical analyses were performed by SPSS statistical software. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was generated to set optimal thresholds; area under the curve (AUC) was used to show the discriminatory abilities of inflammation-based scores; Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to plot the survival curve; cox regression models were employed to determine the independent prognostic factors. The optimal cut-off points of NLR, PLR, and LMR were 2.57, 123.5 and 4.73, respectively. GPS and NLR had a markedly larger AUC than CRP, PLR and LMR. High levels of CRP, GPS, NLR, PLR, and low level of LMR were significantly associated with adverse prognosis (P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that GPS, NLR, and occurrence of metastasis were top risk factors associated with death of osteosarcoma patients. PMID:28008988

Inflammation-based prognostic score is a useful predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

PubMed

Oshiro, Yukio; Sasaki, Ryoko; Fukunaga, Kiyoshi; Kondo, Tadashi; Oda, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Hideto; Ohkohchi, Nobuhiro

2013-03-01

Recent studies have revealed that the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is useful for predicting outcome in a variety of cancers. This study sought to investigate the significance of GPS for prognostication of patients who underwent surgery with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. We retrospectively analyzed a total of 62 patients who underwent resection for extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. We calculated the GPS as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/L) were allocated a score of 2; patients with one or none of these abnormalities were allocated a s ore of 1 or 0, respectively. Prognostic significance was analyzed by the log-rank test and a Cox proportional hazards model. Overall survival rate was 25.5 % at 5 years for all 62 patients. Venous invasion (p = 0.01), pathological primary tumor category (p = 0.013), lymph node metastasis category (p < 0.001), TNM stage (p < 0.001), and GPS (p = 0.008) were significantly associated with survival by univariate analysis. A Cox model demonstrated that increased GPS was an independent predictive factor with poor prognosis. The preoperative GPS is a useful predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

The relation between Glasgow Coma Scale score and later cerebral atrophy in paediatric traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Ghosh, Alokananda; Wilde, Elisabeth A; Hunter, Jill V; Bigler, Erin D; Chu, Zili; Li, Xiaoqi; Vasquez, Ana C; Menefee, Deleene; Yallampalli, Ragini; Levin, Harvey S

2009-03-01

To examine initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score and its relationship with later cerebral atrophy in children with traumatic brain injury (TBI) using Quantitative Magnetic Resonance Imaging (QMRI) at 4 months post-injury. It was hypothesized that a lower GCS score would predict later generalized atrophy. As a guide in assessing paediatric TBI patients, the probability of developing chronic cerebral atrophy was determined based on the initial GCS score. The probability model used data from 45 paediatric patients (mean age = 13.6) with mild-to-severe TBI and 41 paediatric (mean age = 12.4) orthopaedically-injured children. This study found a 24% increase in the odds of developing an abnormal ventricle-to-brain ratio (VBR) and a 27% increase in the odds of developing reduced white matter percentage on neuroimaging with each numerical drop in GCS score. Logistic regression models with cut-offs determined by normative QMRI data confirmed that a lower initial GCS score predicts later atrophy. GCS is a commonly used measure of injury severity. It has proven to be a prognostic indicator of cognitive recovery and functional outcome and is also predictive of later parenchymal change.

Inflammation-based prognostic score is a novel predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, Mitsuru; Nagata, Hitoshi; Takagi, Kazutoshi; Horie, Toru; Kubota, Keiichi

2007-12-01

To investigate the significance of preoperative Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) for postoperative prognostication of patients with colorectal cancer. Recent studies have revealed that the GPS, an inflammation-based prognostic score that includes only C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin, is a useful tool for predicting postoperative outcome in cancer patients. However, few studies have investigated the GPS in the field of colorectal surgery. The GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with an elevated level of both CRP (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (Alb <35 g/L) were allocated a score of 2, and patients showing 1 or none of these blood chemistry abnormalities were allocated a score of 1 or 0, respectively. Prognostic significance was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses. A total of 315 patients were evaluated. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test revealed that a higher GPS predicted a higher risk of postoperative mortality (P < 0.01). Univariate analyses revealed that postoperative TNM was the most sensitive predictor of postoperative mortality (odds ratio, 0.148; 95% confidence interval, 0.072-0.304; P < 0.0001). Multivariate analyses using factors such as age, sex, tumor site, serum carcinoembryonic antigen, CA19-9, CA72-4, CRP, albumin, and GPS revealed that GPS (odds ratio, 0.165; 95% confidence interval, 0.037-0.732; P = 0.0177) was associated with postoperative mortality. Preoperative GPS is considered to be a useful predictor of postoperative mortality in patients with colorectal cancer.

Esophageal stenosis and the Glasgow Prognostic Score as independent factors of poor prognosis for patients with locally advanced unresectable esophageal cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy (exploratory analysis of JCOG0303).

PubMed

Okuno, Tatsuya; Wakabayashi, Masashi; Kato, Ken; Shinoda, Masayuki; Katayama, Hiroshi; Igaki, Hiroyasu; Tsubosa, Yasuhiro; Kojima, Takashi; Okabe, Hiroshi; Kimura, Yusuke; Kawano, Tatsuyuki; Kosugi, Shinichi; Toh, Yasushi; Kato, Hoichi; Nakamura, Kenichi; Fukuda, Haruhiko; Ishikura, Satoshi; Ando, Nobutoshi; Kitagawa, Yuko

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the possible prognostic factors and predictive accuracy of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) for patients with unresectable locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LAESCC) treated with chemoradiotherapy. One hundred forty-two patients were enrolled in JCOG0303 and assigned to the standard cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (PF)-radiotherapy (RT) group or the low-dose PF-RT group. One hundred thirty-one patients with sufficient data were included in this analysis. A Cox regression model was used to analyze the prognostic factors of patients with unresectable LAESCC treated with PF-RT. The GPS was classified based on the baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin levels. Patients with CRP ≤1.0 mg/dL and albumin ≥3.5 g/dL were classified as GPS0. If only CRP was increased or only albumin was decreased, the patients were classified as GPS1, and the patients with CRP >1.0 mg/dL and albumin <3.5 g/dL were classified as GPS2. The patients' backgrounds were as follows: median age (range), 62 (37-75); male/female, 119/12; ECOG PS 0/1/2, 64/65/2; and clinical stage (UICC 5th) IIB/III/IVA/IVB, 3/75/22/31. Multivariable analyses indicated only esophageal stenosis as a common factor for poor prognosis. In addition, overall survival tended to decrease according to the GPS subgroups (median survival time (months): GPS0/GPS1/GPS2 16.1/14.9/8.7). Esophageal stenosis was identified as a candidate stratification factor for randomized trials of unresectable LAESCC patients. Furthermore, GPS represents a prognostic factor for LAESCC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. UMIN000000861.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer.

PubMed

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

People's Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other

Evaluation of an inflammation-based prognostic score (GPS) in patients with metastatic breast cancer.

PubMed

Al Murri, A M; Bartlett, J M S; Canney, P A; Doughty, J C; Wilson, C; McMillan, D C

2006-01-30

Prediction of outcome in patients with metastatic breast cancer remains problematical. The present study evaluated the value of an inflammation-based score (Glasgow Prognostic Score, GPS) in patients with metastatic breast cancer. The GPS was constructed as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg l(-1)) and hypoalbuminaemia (<35 g l(-1)) were allocated a score of 2. Patients in whom only one or none of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a score of 1 or 0, respectively. In total, 96 patients were studied. During follow-up 51 patients died of their cancer. On multivariate analysis of the GPS and treatment received, only the GPS (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.45-3.52, P<0.001) remained significantly associated with cancer-specific survival. The presence of a systemic inflammatory response (the GPS) appears to be a useful indicator of poor outcome independent of treatment in patients with metastatic breast cancer.

The modified Glasgow prognosis score predicts for overall and disease-free survival following cytoreductive surgery and HIPEC in patients with pseudomyxoma peritonei of appendiceal origin.

PubMed

Tan, G H C; Novo, C A; Dayal, S; Chandrakumaran, K; Mohamed, F; Cecil, T; Moran, B J

2017-02-01

The modified Glasgow prognostic score (incorporating C-reactive protein and albumin) predicts survival in patients with gastro-intestinal tract cancer but has not been evaluated in patients with peritoneal malignancy. The aim was to evaluate the modified Glasgow score preoperatively in patients undergoing complete cytoreductive surgery (CCRS) with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) for pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP) of appendiceal origin. Prospectively collected data from patients with PMP of appendiceal origin following CCRS and HIPEC between January 2007 and December 2011 were analysed. The mGPS was calculated from preoperative C-reactive protein and albumin. Predicted overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) for each mGPS score were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier model. In a separate analysis, a comparison was made between mGPS and Tumour Markers (TM). 260 patients were included in the study. The mGPS of 0, 1, and 2 were found in 111, 130, and 19 patients respectively. The median follow-up was 48 months. For mGPS-0, -1, and -2, the predicted OS was 82.2, 73.7, and 69.2 months and the DFS was 73.5, 62.9, and 54.4 months respectively. As mGPS increases, there is a reduction in long-term survival. There was no difference between mGPS and TM. Preoperative mGPS may be a cost effective prognostic tool for predicting OS and DFS in patients following complete CRS-HIPEC, and performs well compared to TM for predicting patients at high risk of recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Gait and Glasgow Coma Scale scores can predict functional recovery in patients with traumatic brain injury☆

PubMed Central

Bilgin, Sevil; Guclu-Gunduz, Arzu; Oruckaptan, Hakan; Kose, Nezire; Celik, Bülent

2012-01-01

Fifty-one patients with mild (n = 14), moderate (n = 10) and severe traumatic brain injury (n = 27) received early rehabilitation. Level of consciousness was evaluated using the Glasgow Coma Score. Functional level was determined using the Glasgow Outcome Score, whilst mobility was evaluated using the Mobility Scale for Acute Stroke. Activities of daily living were assessed using the Barthel Index. Following Bobath neurodevelopmental therapy, the level of consciousness was significantly improved in patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury, but was not greatly influenced in patients with mild traumatic brain injury. Mobility and functional level were significantly improved in patients with mild, moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Gait recovery was more obvious in patients with mild traumatic brain injury than in patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Activities of daily living showed an improvement but this was insignificant except for patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Nevertheless, complete recovery was not acquired at discharge. Multiple regression analysis showed that gait and Glasgow Coma Scale scores can be considered predictors of functional outcomes following traumatic brain injury. PMID:25624828

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

Background People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. Objective To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. Methods The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. Results In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating

Which clinical variable influences health-related quality of life the most after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage? Hunt and Hess scale, Fisher score, World Federation of Neurosurgeons score, Brussels coma score, and Glasgow coma score compared.

PubMed

Kapapa, Thomas; Tjahjadi, Martin; König, Ralph; Wirtz, Christian Rainer; Woischneck, Dieter

2013-12-01

To determine the strength of the correlation between the Hunt and Hess scale, Fisher score, Brussels coma score, World Federation of Neurosurgeons score, and Glasgow coma score and health-related quality of life. Evaluable questionnaires from 236 patients (5.6 years [± standard deviation, 2.854 years] on average after hemorrhage) were included in the analysis. Quality of life was documented using the MOS-36 item short form health survey. Because of the ordinal nature of the variables, Kendall tau was used for calculation. Significance was established as P ≤ 0.05. Weak and very weak correlations were found in general (r ≤ 0.28). The strongest correlations were found between the Glasgow coma score and quality of life (r = 0.236, P = 0.0001). In particular, the "best verbal response" achieved the strongest correlations in the comparison, at r = 0.28/P = 0.0001. The Fisher score showed very weak correlations (r = -0.148/P = 0.012). The Brussels coma score (r = -0.216/P = 0.0001), Hunt and Hess scale (r = -0.197/P = 0.0001), and the World Federation of Neurosurgeons score (r = -0.185/P = 0.0001) revealed stronger correlations, especially in terms of the physical aspects of quality of life. The Glasgow coma scale revealed the strongest, and the Fisher score showed the weakest correlations. Thus the Fisher score, as an indicator of the severity of a hemorrhage, has little significance in terms of health-related quality of life. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association Between Nutritional Status, Inflammatory Condition, and Prognostic Indexes with Postoperative Complications and Clinical Outcome of Patients with Gastrointestinal Neoplasia.

PubMed

Costa, Milena Damasceno de Souza; Vieira de Melo, Camila Yandara Sousa; Amorim, Ana Carolina Ribeiro de; Cipriano Torres, Dilênia de Oliveira; Dos Santos, Ana Célia Oliveira

2016-10-01

The aim of this study is to describe and relate nutritional and inflammatory status and prognostic indexes with postoperative complications and clinical outcome of patients with gastrointestinal malignancies. Twenty-nine patients were evaluated; nutritional assessment was carried out by subjective and objective parameters; albumin, pre-albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) were determined. To assess prognosis, the Glasgow scale, the Prognostic Inflammatory Nutritional Index (PINI), and CRP/albumin ratio were used; the clinical outcomes considered were hospital discharge and death. A high Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) score was associated with the occurrence of postoperative complications: 73% of the patients with postoperative complications had the highest SGA score, but only 6% of those without postoperative complications had the highest SGA score (P < 0.001). Greater occurrence of death was observed in patients with a high SGA score, low serum albumin, increased CRP, PINI > 1, and Glasgow score 2. There was a positive correlation between weight loss percentage with serum CRP levels (P = 0.002), CRP/albumin (P = 0.002), PINI (P = 0.002), and Glasgow score (P = 0.000). This study provides evidence that the assessment of the nutritional status and the use of prognostic indexes are good tools for predicting postoperative complications and clinical outcome in patients with gastrointestinal neoplasia.

Comparison of an inflammation-based prognostic score (GPS) with performance status (ECOG-ps) in patients receiving palliative chemotherapy for gastroesophageal cancer.

PubMed

Crumley, Andrew B C; Stuart, Robert C; McKernan, Margaret; McDonald, Alexander C; McMillan, Donald C

2008-08-01

The aim of the present study was to compare an inflammation-based prognostic score (Glasgow Prognostic Score, GPS) with performance status (ECOG-ps) in patients receiving platinum-based chemotherapy for palliation of gastroesophageal cancer. Sixty-five patients presenting with gastroesophageal carcinoma to the Royal Infirmary, Glasgow between January 1999 and December 2005 and who received palliative chemotherapy or chemo-radiotherapy were studied. ECOG-ps, C-reactive protein, and albumin were recorded at diagnosis. Patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/L) were allocated a GPS of 2. Patients in whom only one of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS of 1 and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. Toxicity was recorded using the Common Toxicity Criteria. The minimum follow up was 14 months. During the follow-up period, 59 (91%) of the patients died. On univariate and multivariate survival analysis, only the GPS (hazard ratios 1.65, 95% CI 1.10-2.47, P < 0.05) was a significant independent predictor of cancer survival. In addition, in comparison with patients with GPS of 0, those patients with a GPS of 1 or 2 required more frequent chemotherapy dose reduction (P < 0.05), were less likely to exhibit a clinical response to treatment (P < 0.05), and had shorter survival (P < 0.05). The presence of a systemic inflammatory response, as evidenced by the GPS, appears to be superior to the subjective assessment of performance status (ECOG-ps) in predicting the response to platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced gastroesophageal cancer.

Mortality prediction of head Abbreviated Injury Score and Glasgow Coma Scale: analysis of 7,764 head injuries.

PubMed

Demetriades, Demetrios; Kuncir, Eric; Murray, James; Velmahos, George C; Rhee, Peter; Chan, Linda

2004-08-01

We assessed the prognostic value and limitations of Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and head Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) and correlated head AIS with GCS. We studied 7,764 patients with head injuries. Bivariate analysis was performed to examine the relationship of GCS, head AIS, age, gender, and mechanism of injury with mortality. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with mortality. The overall mortality in the group of head injury patients with no other major extracranial injuries and no hypotension on admission was 9.3%. Logistic regression analysis identified head AIS, GCS, age, and mechanism of injury as significant independent risk factors of death. The prognostic value of GCS and head AIS was significantly affected by the mechanism of injury and the age of the patient. Patients with similar GCS or head AIS but different mechanisms of injury or ages had significantly different outcomes. The adjusted odds ratio of death in penetrating trauma was 5.2 (3.9, 7.0), p < 0.0001, and in the age group > or = 55 years the adjusted odds ratio was 3.4 (2.6, 4.6), p < 0.0001. There was no correlation between head AIS and GCS (correlation coefficient -0.31). Mechanism of injury and age have a major effect in the predictive value of GCS and head AIS. There is no good correlation between GCS and head AIS.

[Is there a place for the Glasgow-Blatchford score in the management of upper gastrointestinal bleeding?].

PubMed

Jerraya, Hichem; Bousslema, Amine; Frikha, Foued; Dziri, Chadli

2011-12-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a frequent cause for emergency hospital admission. Most severity scores include in their computation the endoscopic findings. The Glasgow-Blatchford score is a validated score that is easy to calculate based on simple clinical and biological variables that can identify patients with a low or a high risk of needing a therapeutic (interventional endoscopy, surgery and/ or transfusions). To validate retrospectively the Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS). The study examined all patients admitted in both the general surgery department as of Anesthesiology of the Regional Hospital of Sidi Bouzid. There were 50 patients, which the mean age was 58 years and divided into 35 men and 15 women. In all these patients, we calculated the GBS. Series were divided into 2 groups, 26 cases received only medical treatment and 24 cases required transfusion and / or surgery. Univariate analysis was performed for comparison of these two groups then the ROC curve was used to identify the 'Cut off point' of GBS. Sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) with confidence interval 95% were calculated. The SGB was significantly different between the two groups (p <0.0001). Using the ROC curve, it was determined that for the threshold of GBS ³ 7, Se = 96% (88-100%), Sp = 69% (51-87%), PPV = 74% (59 -90%) and NPV = 95% (85-100%). This threshold is interesting as to its VPN. Indeed, if GBS <7, we must opt for medical treatment to the risk of being wrong in only 5% of cases. The Glasgow-Blatchford score is based on simple clinical and laboratory variables. It can recognize in the emergency department the cases that require medical treatment and those whose support could need blood transfusions and / or surgical treatment.

Moderate Traumatic Brain Injury: Clinical Characteristics and a Prognostic Model of 12-Month Outcome.

PubMed

Einarsen, Cathrine Elisabeth; van der Naalt, Joukje; Jacobs, Bram; Follestad, Turid; Moen, Kent Gøran; Vik, Anne; Håberg, Asta Kristine; Skandsen, Toril

2018-06-01

Patients with moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI) often are studied together with patients with severe TBI, even though the expected outcome of the former is better. Therefore, we aimed to describe patient characteristics and 12-month outcomes, and to develop a prognostic model based on admission data, specifically for patients with moderate TBI. Patients with Glasgow Coma Scale scores of 9-13 and age ≥16 years were prospectively enrolled in 2 level I trauma centers in Europe. Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) score was assessed at 12 months. A prognostic model predicting moderate disability or worse (GOSE score ≤6), as opposed to a good recovery, was fitted by penalized regression. Model performance was evaluated by area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curves. Of the 395 enrolled patients, 81% had intracranial lesions on head computed tomography, and 71% were admitted to an intensive care unit. At 12 months, 44% were moderately disabled or worse (GOSE score ≤6), whereas 8% were severely disabled and 6% died (GOSE score ≤4). Older age, lower Glasgow Coma Scale score, no day-of-injury alcohol intoxication, presence of a subdural hematoma, occurrence of hypoxia and/or hypotension, and preinjury disability were significant predictors of GOSE score ≤6 (area under the curve = 0.80). Patients with moderate TBI exhibit characteristics of significant brain injury. Although few patients died or experienced severe disability, 44% did not experience good recovery, indicating that follow-up is needed. The model is a first step in development of prognostic models for moderate TBI that are valid across centers. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: usefulness of prognostic scores].

PubMed

Badel, S; Dorta, G; Carron, P-N

2011-08-24

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially serious event, usually requiring urgent endoscopic treatment. Better stratification of the risk of complication or death could optimize management and improve patient outcomes, while ensuring adequate resource allocation. Several prognostic scores have been developed, in order to identify high risk patients, who require immediate treatment, and patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be delayed. An ideal prognostic score should be accurate, simple, reproducible, and prospectively validated in different populations. Published scores meet these requirements only partially, and thus can only be used as part of an integrative diagnostic and therapeutic process.

Inflammation-based prognostic score, prior to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, predicts postoperative outcome in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Tanaka, Hozumi; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

2008-11-01

Recent studies have revealed that Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is associated with poor outcome in a variety of tumors. However, few studies have investigated whether GPS measured prior to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is useful for postoperative prognosis of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminaemia (<35 g/L) were allocated a GPS score of 2. Patients in whom only 1 of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS score of 1, and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. All patients underwent radical en-bloc resection 3-4 weeks after nCRT. A total of 48 patients with clinical TNM stage II/III were enrolled. Univariate analyses revealed that there were significant differences in cancer-specific survival in relation to grade of response to nCRT (P = .004), lymph node status (P = .0065), lymphatic invasion (P = .0002), venous invasion (P = .0001), pathological TNM classification (P = .015), and GPS (P < .0001). GPS classification showed a close relationship with lymphatic invasion, venous invasion, and number of lymph node (P = .0292, .0473, and .0485, respectively). GPS was found to be the only independent predictor of cancer-specific survival (odds ratio, 0.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.52; P = .0019). GPS, measured prior to nCRT, is an independent novel predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with advanced ESCC.

Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

PubMed

Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

2005-01-01

No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

[Prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism].

PubMed

Junod, Alain

2016-03-23

Nine prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE), based on retrospective and prospective studies, published between 2000 and 2014, have been analyzed and compared. Most of them aim at identifying PE cases with a low risk to validate their ambulatory care. Important differences in the considered outcomes: global mortality, PE-specific mortality, other complications, sizes of low risk groups, exist between these scores. The most popular score appears to be the PESI and its simplified version. Few good quality studies have tested the applicability of these scores to PE outpatient care, although this approach tends to already generalize in the medical practice.

Evaluation of an inflammation-based prognostic score in patients with inoperable gastro-oesophageal cancer.

PubMed

Crumley, A B C; McMillan, D C; McKernan, M; McDonald, A C; Stuart, R C

2006-03-13

There is increasing evidence that the presence of an ongoing systemic inflammatory response is associated with poor outcome in patients with advanced cancer. The aim of the present study was to examine whether an inflammation-based prognostic score (Glasgow Prognostic score, GPS) was associated with survival, in patients with inoperable gastro-oesophageal cancer. Patients diagnosed with inoperable gastro-oesophageal carcinoma and who had measurement of albumin and C-reactive protein concentrations, at the time of diagnosis, were studied (n=258). Clinical information was obtained from a gastro-oesophageal cancer database and analysis of the case notes. Patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg l(-1)) and hypoalbuminaemia (<35 g l(-1)) were allocated a GPS score of 2. Patients in whom only one of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS score of 1, and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. On multivariate survival analysis, age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.22, 95% CI 1.02-1.46, P<0.05), stage (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.30-1.83, P<0.001), the GPS (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.22-1.86, P<0.001) and treatment (HR 2.53, 95% CI 1.80-3.56, P<0.001) were significant independent predictors of cancer survival. A 12-month cancer-specific survival in patients with stage I/II disease receiving active treatment was 67 and 60% for a GPS of 0 and 1, respectively. For stage III/IV disease, 12 months cancer-specific survival was 57, 25 and 12% for a GPS of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. In the present study, the GPS predicted cancer-specific survival, independent of stage and treatment received, in patients with inoperable gastro-oesophageal cancer. Moreover, the GPS may be used in combination with conventional staging techniques to improve the prediction of survival in patients with inoperable gastro-oesophageal cancer.

Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores.

PubMed

Haile, Sarah R; Guerra, Beniamino; Soriano, Joan B; Puhan, Milo A

2017-12-21

Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them. Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined. We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small. We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates

[Validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru (June 2012-December 2013)].

PubMed

Cassana, Alessandra; Scialom, Silvia; Segura, Eddy R; Chacaltana, Alfonso

2015-07-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a major cause of hospitalization and the most prevalent emergency worldwide, with a mortality rate of up to 14%. In Peru, there have not been any studies on the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study is to perform an external validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System and to establish the best cutoff for predicting mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru. This was a longitudinal, retrospective, analytical validation study, with data from patients with a clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding treated at the Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Unit of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins between June 2012 and December 2013. We calculated the area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality with a 95% confidence interval. A total of 339 records were analyzed. 57.5% were male and the mean age (standard deviation) was 67.0 (15.7) years. The median of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System obtained in the population was 12. The ROC analysis for death gave an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.5-0.7). Stratifying by type of upper gastrointestinal bleeding resulted in an area under the curve of 0.66 (95% CI 0.53-0.78) for non-variceal type. In this population, the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System has no diagnostic validity for predicting mortality.

Emergency endoscopy for acute gastrointestinal bleeding: prognostic value of endoscopic hemostasis and the AIMS65 score in Japanese patients.

PubMed

Nakamura, Shotaro; Matsumoto, Takayuki; Sugimori, Hiroshi; Esaki, Motohiro; Kitazono, Takanari; Hashizume, Makoto

2014-05-01

To evaluate the prognostic factors, including risk scores (Glasgow-Blatchford score and AIMS65) in patients with acute upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. The medical records of patients who had undergone emergency gastrointestinal endoscopy for suspected gastrointestinal bleeding during the past 5 years were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 232 endoscopies (130 esophagogastroduodenoscopies, 102 colonoscopies) for 192 patients met the inclusion criteria. Median age was 66 years, and 64% of patients were males. Endoscopy identified causes for bleeding in 173 patients (post-endoscopic interventions for neoplastic lesions in 36 cases, colonic diverticula in 34, gastroduodenal ulcers in 29, gastric erosions in 15, vascular ectasia in 14, post-biopsy bleeding in 13, malignant tumors in 10, inflammatory conditions in nine, esophagogastric varices in five, Mallory-Weiss tears in four, nasalbleeding in three, and injury by swallowed blister pack in one), whereas the source of bleeding remained obscure in 19 patients. Blood transfusion was given in 97 patients (51%), and 97 (51%) underwent endoscopic hemostasis. During the follow-up period, 49 patients (26%) experienced rebleeding, seven of whom were treated by interventional radiology. Thirty-nine patients (20%) died as a result of various diseases. The probabilities of overall survival (OS) after 3 and 5 years were 71% and 67%, respectively. Cox multivariate analysis revealed blood transfusion, co-existing malignancy, absence of endoscopic hemostasis, and high AIMS65 score to be independent prognostic factors for poor OS. The AIMS65 score is useful for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding. © 2013 The Authors. Digestive Endoscopy © 2013 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

Glasgow Coma Scale score, mortality, and functional outcome in head-injured patients.

PubMed

Udekwu, Pascal; Kromhout-Schiro, Sharon; Vaslef, Steven; Baker, Christopher; Oller, Dale

2004-05-01

Preresuscitation Glasgow Coma Scale (P-GCS) score is frequently obtained in injured patients and incorporated into mortality prediction. Data on functional outcome in head injury is sparse. A large group of patients with head injuries was analyzed to assess relationships between P-GCS score, mortality, and functional outcome as measured by the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Records for patients with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnosis codes indicating head injury in a statewide trauma registry between 1994 and 2002 were selected. P-GCS score, mortality, and FIM score at hospital discharge were integrated and analyzed. Of 138,750 patients, 22,924 patients were used for the mortality study and 7,150 patients for the FIM study. A good correlation exists between P-GCS score and FIM, as determined by rank correlation coefficients, whereas mortality falls steeply between a P-GCS score of 3 and a P-GCS score of 7 followed by a shallow fall. Although P-GCS score is related to mortality in head-injured patients, its relationship is nonlinear, which casts doubt on its use as a continuous measure or an equivalent set of categorical measures incorporated into outcome prediction models. The average FIM scores indicate substantial likelihood of good outcomes in survivors with low P-GCS scores, further complicating the use of the P-GCS score in the prediction of poor outcome at the time of initial patient evaluation. Although the P-GCS score is related to functional outcome as measured by the FIM score and mortality in head injury, current mortality prediction models may need to be modified to account for the nonlinear relationship between P-GCS score and mortality. The P-GCS score is not a good clinical tool for outcome prediction in individual head-injured patients, given the variability in mortality rates and functional outcomes at all scores.

A Comparative Study of Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Scores for Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Brain Injury.

PubMed

McNett, Molly M; Amato, Shelly; Philippbar, Sue Ann

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare predictive ability of hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and scores obtained using a novel coma scoring tool (the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness [FOUR] scale) on long-term outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury. Preliminary research of the FOUR scale suggests that it is comparable with GCS for predicting mortality and functional outcome at hospital discharge. No research has investigated relationships between coma scores and outcome 12 months postinjury. This is a prospective cohort study. Data were gathered on adult patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to urban level I trauma center. GCS and FOUR scores were assigned at 24 and 72 hours and at hospital discharge. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were assigned at 6 and 12 months. The sample size was n = 107. Mean age was 53.5 (SD = ±21, range = 18-91) years. Spearman correlations were comparable and strongest among discharge GCS and FOUR scores and 12-month outcome (r = .73, p < .000; r = .72, p < .000). Multivariate regression models indicate that age and discharge GCS were the strongest predictors of outcome. Areas under the curve were similar for GCS and FOUR scores, with discharge scores occupying the largest areas. GCS and FOUR scores were comparable in bivariate associations with long-term outcome. Discharge coma scores performed best for both tools, with GCS discharge scores predictive in multivariate models.

Simplifying the use of prognostic information in traumatic brain injury. Part 1: The GCS-Pupils score: an extended index of clinical severity.

PubMed

Brennan, Paul M; Murray, Gordon D; Teasdale, Graham M

2018-06-01

OBJECTIVE Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and pupil responses are key indicators of the severity of traumatic brain damage. The aim of this study was to determine what information would be gained by combining these indicators into a single index and to explore the merits of different ways of achieving this. METHODS Information about early GCS scores, pupil responses, late outcomes on the Glasgow Outcome Scale, and mortality were obtained at the individual patient level by reviewing data from the CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury; n = 9,045) study and the IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in TBI; n = 6855) database. These data were combined into a pooled data set for the main analysis. Methods of combining the Glasgow Coma Scale and pupil response data varied in complexity from using a simple arithmetic score (GCS score [range 3-15] minus the number of nonreacting pupils [0, 1, or 2]), which we call the GCS-Pupils score (GCS-P; range 1-15), to treating each factor as a separate categorical variable. The content of information about patient outcome in each of these models was evaluated using Nagelkerke's R 2 . RESULTS Separately, the GCS score and pupil response were each related to outcome. Adding information about the pupil response to the GCS score increased the information yield. The performance of the simple GCS-P was similar to the performance of more complex methods of evaluating traumatic brain damage. The relationship between decreases in the GCS-P and deteriorating outcome was seen across the complete range of possible scores. The additional 2 lowest points offered by the GCS-Pupils scale (GCS-P 1 and 2) extended the information about injury severity from a mortality rate of 51% and an unfavorable outcome rate of 70% at GCS score 3 to a mortality rate of 74% and an unfavorable outcome rate of 90% at GCS-P 1. The paradoxical finding that GCS score 4 was associated with a worse outcome than GCS

Comparison of the prognostic utility of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System and the French Prognostic Scoring System in azacitidine-treated patients with myelodysplastic syndromes.

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Lee, Ju-Whei; Prebet, Thomas; Greenberg, Peter; Sun, Zhuoxin; Juckett, Mark; Smith, Mitchell R; Paietta, Elisabeth; Gabrilove, Janice; Erba, Harry P; Tallman, Martin S; Gore, Steven D

2014-08-01

The revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) was developed in a cohort of untreated myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients. A French Prognostic Scoring System (FPSS) was recently reported to identify differential survival among azacitidine-treated patients with high-risk MDS. We applied the FPSS and IPSS-R to 150 patients previously randomized to azacitidine monotherapy or a combination of azacitidine with entinostat (a histone deacetylase inhibitor). Neither score predicted response but both discriminated patients with different overall survival (OS; median OS, FPSS: 9·7, 14·7, and 25·3 months, P = 0·018; IPSS-R: 12·5, 11·3, 20·8, and 36 months, P = 0·005). Statistical analysis suggested no improvement in OS prediction for the FPSS over the IPSS-R in azacitidine-treated patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Outpatient management of low-risk patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: can we safely extend the Glasgow Blatchford Score in clinical practice?

PubMed

Mustafa, Zia; Cameron, Allan; Clark, Elaine; Stanley, Adrian J

2015-05-01

The Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS) is a validated prognostic score for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (UGIB). The score predicts the need for therapeutic intervention or death, and studies have suggested that outpatient management is safe for patients with a GBS of zero. Our aim was to assess whether we could safely extend the threshold for outpatient management to patients with GBS≤1. Following assessment of our historical data, our UGIB protocol was changed to recommend outpatient management for patients with a GBS≤1, unless required for other reasons. Data on all patients presenting with UGIB over the following 12 months were prospectively recorded, including GBS and clinical Rockall scores. Adverse outcomes were defined by a 30-day combined endpoint of death, endotherapy, interventional radiology, surgery or transfusion. Negative predictive value (NPV) of GBS≤1 for adverse outcomes in UGIB was calculated. A total of 514 patients presented with UGIB in the 12 month study period. Of the patients, 183 (35.6%) had GBS≤1 (111, GBS=0; 72, GBS=1). Of these, 88 (48.1%) were managed as outpatients, and none had an adverse outcome. Of the 95 (51.9%) patients with GBS≤1 managed as inpatients, 80 (84.2%) had comorbidities requiring inpatient care. Within this admitted group with GBS≤1, one patient required transfusion and one died from a nongastrointestinal malignancy. GBS≤1 had an NPV of 99.45% (95% confidence interval 95.53-99.97%) in predicting adverse outcomes within 30 days. GBS≤1 has a high NPV for adverse outcomes in UGIB. This suggests outpatient management of patients with UGIB and that GBS≤1 is safe in our population.

Prognostic score–based balance measures for propensity score methods in comparative effectiveness research

PubMed Central

Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Lee, Brian K.; Leacy, Finbarr P.

2013-01-01

Objective Examining covariate balance is the prescribed method for determining when propensity score methods are successful at reducing bias. This study assessed the performance of various balance measures, including a proposed balance measure based on the prognostic score (also known as the disease-risk score), to determine which balance measures best correlate with bias in the treatment effect estimate. Study Design and Setting The correlations of multiple common balance measures with bias in the treatment effect estimate produced by weighting by the odds, subclassification on the propensity score, and full matching on the propensity score were calculated. Simulated data were used, based on realistic data settings. Settings included both continuous and binary covariates and continuous covariates only. Results The standardized mean difference in prognostic scores, the mean standardized mean difference, and the mean t-statistic all had high correlations with bias in the effect estimate. Overall, prognostic scores displayed the highest correlations of all the balance measures considered. Prognostic score measure performance was generally not affected by model misspecification and performed well under a variety of scenarios. Conclusion Researchers should consider using prognostic score–based balance measures for assessing the performance of propensity score methods for reducing bias in non-experimental studies. PMID:23849158

Predictive Value of Glasgow Coma Score and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Score on the Outcome of Multiple Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Baratloo, Alireza; Shokravi, Masumeh; Safari, Saeed; Aziz, Awat Kamal

2016-03-01

The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score was developed to compensate for the limitations of Glasgow coma score (GCS) in recent years. This study aimed to assess the predictive value of GCS and FOUR score on the outcome of multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department. The present prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department. GCS and FOUR scores were evaluated at the time of admission and at the sixth and twelfth hours after admission. Then the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive value of GCS and FOUR score were evaluated to predict patients' outcome. Patients' outcome was divided into discharge with and without a medical injury (motor deficit, coma or death). Finally, 89 patients were studied. Sensitivity and specificity of GCS in predicting adverse outcome (motor deficit, coma or death) were 84.2% and 88.6% at the time of admission, 89.5% and 95.4% at the sixth hour and 89.5% and 91.5% at the twelfth hour, respectively. These values for the FOUR score were 86.9% and 88.4% at the time of admission, 89.5% and 100% at the sixth hour and 89.5% and 94.4% at the twelfth hour, respectively. Findings of this study indicate that the predictive value of FOUR score and GCS on the outcome of multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department is similar.

Usefulness of the abbreviated injury score and the injury severity score in comparison to the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Foreman, Brandon P; Caesar, R Ruth; Parks, Jennifer; Madden, Christopher; Gentilello, Larry M; Shafi, Shahid; Carlile, Mary C; Harper, Caryn R; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon R

2007-04-01

Assessment of injury severity is important in the management of patients with brain trauma. We aimed to analyze the usefulness of the head abbreviated injury score (AIS), the injury severity score (ISS), and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) as measures of injury severity and predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Data were prospectively collected from 410 patients with TBI. AIS, ISS, and GCS were recorded at admission. Subjects' outcomes after TBI were measured using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) at 12 months postinjury. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed. Outcome information was obtained from 270 patients (66%). ISS was the best predictor of GOS-E (rs = -0.341, p < 0.001), followed by GCS score (rs = 0.227, p < 0.001), and head AIS (rs = -0.222, p < 0.001). When considered in combination, GCS score and ISS modestly improved the correlation with GOS-E (R = 0.335, p < 0.001). The combination of GCS score and head AIS had a similar effect (R = 0.275, p < 0.001). Correlations were stronger from patients 8). GCS score, AIS, and ISS are weakly correlated with 12-month outcome. However, anatomic measures modestly outperform GCS as predictors of GOS-E. The combination of GCS and AIS/ISS correlate with outcome better than do any of the three measures alone. Results support the addition of anatomic measures such as AIS and ISS in clinical studies of TBI. Additionally, most of the variance in outcome is not accounted for by currently available measures of injury severity.

[Evaluation of prognosis in purulent meningitis-myelitis based on the Glasgow Coma Scale].

PubMed

Garlicki, A; Caban, J; Bociaga, M; Krukowiecki, J; Warunek, W; Skwara, P

1996-01-01

We presented data from the investigation of the usefulness of the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting the outcome of bacterial meningitis. Patients who aggregated high Glasgow Coma Scale scores had a good prognosis, whereas those patients with low scores had a very poor prognosis, inspite of this limitation the Glasgow Coma Scale seems to be a valuable supplement to the physical examination of patients with bacterial meningitis and may help in predicting the outcome of the disease.

A new prognostic score for AIDS-related lymphomas in the rituximab-era

PubMed Central

Barta, Stefan K.; Xue, Xiaonan; Wang, Dan; Lee, Jeannette Y.; Kaplan, Lawrence D.; Ribera, Josep-Maria; Oriol, Albert; Spina, Michele; Tirelli, Umberto; Boue, Francois; Wilson, Wyndham H.; Wyen, Christoph; Dunleavy, Kieron; Noy, Ariela; Sparano, Joseph A.

2014-01-01

While the International Prognostic Index is commonly used to predict outcomes in immunocompetent patients with aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas, HIV-infection is an important competing risk for death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We investigated whether a newly created prognostic score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) could better assess risk of death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We randomly divided a dataset of 487 patients newly diagnosed with AIDS-related lymphomas and treated with rituximab-containing chemoimmunotherapy into a training (n=244) and validation (n=243) set. We examined the association of HIV-related and other known risk factors with overall survival in both sets independently. We defined a new score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) by assigning weights to each significant predictor [age-adjusted International Prognostic Index, extranodal sites, HIV-score (composed of CD4 count, viral load, and prior history of AIDS)] with three risk categories similar to the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (low, intermediate and high risk). We compared the prognostic value for overall survival between AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index and age-adjusted International Prognostic Index in the validation set and found that the AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index performed significantly better in predicting risk of death than the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (P=0.004) and better discriminated risk of death between each risk category (P=0.015 vs. P=0.13). Twenty-eight percent of patients were defined as low risk by the ARL-IPI and had an estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) of 78% (52% intermediate risk, 5-year OS 60%; 20% high risk, 5-year OS 50%). PMID:25150257

Prognostic scores in cirrhotic patients admitted to a gastroenterology intensive care unit.

PubMed

Freire, Paulo; Romãozinho, José M; Amaro, Pedro; Ferreira, Manuela; Sofia, Carlos

2011-04-01

prognostic scores have been validated in cirrhotic patients admitted to general Intensive Care Units. No assessment of these scores was performed in cirrhotics admitted to specialized Gastroenterology Intensive Care Units (GICUs). to assess the prognostic accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) in predicting GICU mortality in cirrhotic patients. the study involved 124 consecutive cirrhotic admissions to a GICU. Clinical data, prognostic scores and mortality were recorded. Discrimination was evaluated with area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Calibration was assessed with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. GICU mortality was 9.7%. Mean APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT scores for survivors (13.6, 25.4, 3.5,18.0 and 8.6, respectively) were found to be significantly lower than those of non-survivors (22.0, 47.5, 10.1, 30.7 and 12.5,respectively) (p < 0.001). All the prognostic systems showed good discrimination, with AUC = 0.860, 0.911, 0.868, 0.897 and 0.914 for APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT, respectively. Similarly, APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT scores achieved good calibration, with p = 0.146, 0.120, 0.686,0.267 and 0.120, respectively. The overall correctness of prediction was 81.9%, 86.1%, 93.3%, 90.7% and 87.7% for the APA-CHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT scores, respectively. in cirrhotics admitted to a GICU, all the tested scores have good prognostic accuracy, with SOFA and MELD showing the greatest overall correctness of prediction.

Computed tomographic findings in dogs with head trauma and development of a novel prognostic computed tomography-based scoring system.

PubMed

Chai, Orit; Peery, Dana; Bdolah-Abram, Tali; Moscovich, Efrat; Kelmer, Efrat; Klainbart, Sigal; Milgram, Joshua; Shamir, Merav H

2017-09-01

OBJECTIVE To characterize CT findings and outcomes in dogs with head trauma and design a prognostic scale. ANIMALS 27 dogs admitted to the Koret School Veterinary Teaching Hospital within 72 hours after traumatic head injury that underwent CT imaging of the head. PROCEDURES Data were extracted from medical records regarding dog signalment, history, physical and neurologic examination findings, and modified Glasgow coma scale scores. All CT images were retrospectively evaluated by a radiologist unaware of dog status. Short-term (10 days after trauma) and long-term (≥ 6 months after trauma) outcomes were determined, and CT findings and other variables were analyzed for associations with outcome. A prognostic CT-based scale was developed on the basis of the results. RESULTS Cranial vault fractures, parenchymal abnormalities, or both were identified via CT in 24 of 27 (89%) dogs. Three (11%) dogs had only facial bone fractures. Intracranial hemorrhage was identified in 16 (59%) dogs, cranial vault fractures in 15 (56%), midline shift in 14 (52%), lateral ventricle asymmetry in 12 (44%), and hydrocephalus in 7 (26%). Hemorrhage and ventricular asymmetry were significantly and negatively associated with short- and long-term survival, respectively. The developed 7-point prognostic scale included points for hemorrhage, midline shift or lateral ventricle asymmetry, cranial vault fracture, and depressed fracture (1 point each) and infratentorial lesion (3 points). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The findings reported here may assist in determining prognoses for other dogs with head trauma. The developed scale may be useful for outcome assessment of dogs with head trauma; however, it must be validated before clinical application.

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Mokhtare, Marjan; Bozorgi, Vida; Agah, Shahram; Nikkhah, Mehdi; Faghihi, Amirhossein; Boghratian, Amirhossein; Shalbaf, Neda; Khanlari, Abbas; Seifmanesh, Hamidreza

2016-01-01

Various risk scoring systems have been recently developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The two commonly used scoring systems include full Rockall score (RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). Bleeding scores were assessed in terms of prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB. Two hundred patients (age >18 years) with obvious symptoms of UGIB in the emergency department of Rasoul Akram Hospital were enrolled. Full RS and GBS were calculated. We followed the patients for records of rebleeding and 1-month mortality. A receiver operating characteristic curve by using areas under the curve (AUCs) was used to statistically identify the best cutoff point. Eighteen patients were excluded from the study due to failure to follow-up. Rebleeding and mortality rate were 9.34% (n=17) and 11.53% (n=21), respectively. Regarding 1-month mortality, full RS was better than GBS (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021). GBS was more accurate in terms of detecting transfusion need (AUC, 0.757 versus 0.528; P =0.001), rebleeding rate (AUC, 0.722 versus 0.520; P =0.002), intensive care unit admission rate (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021), and endoscopic intervention rate (AUC, 0.771 versus 0.650; P <0.001). We found the full RS system is better for 1-month mortality prediction while GBS system is better for prediction of other outcomes.

New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis.

PubMed

Katagiri, Hirohisa; Okada, Rieko; Takagi, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Mitsuru; Murata, Hideki; Harada, Hideyuki; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Asakura, Hirofumi; Ogawa, Hirofumi

2014-10-01

The aim of this study was to update a previous scoring system for patients with skeletal metastases, that was proposed by Katagiri et al. in 2005, by introducing a new factor (laboratory data) and analyzing a new patient cohort. Between January 2005 and January 2008, we treated 808 patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases. They were prospectively registered regardless of their treatments, and the last follow-up evaluation was performed in 2012. There were 441 male and 367 female patients with a median age of 64 years. Of these patients, 749 were treated nonsurgically while the remaining 59 underwent surgery for skeletal metastasis. A multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified six significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the primary lesion, visceral or cerebral metastases, abnormal laboratory data, poor performance status, previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The first three factors had a larger impact than the remaining three. The prognostic score was calculated by adding together all the scores for individual factors. With a prognostic score of ≥7, the survival rate was 27% at 6 months, and only 6% at 1 year. In contrast, patients with a prognostic score of ≤3 had a survival rate of 91% at 1 year, and 78% at 2 years. Comparing the revised system with the previous one, there was a significantly lower number of wrongly predicted patients using the revised system. This revised scoring system was able to predict the survival rates of patients with skeletal metastases more accurately than the previous system and may be useful for selecting an optimal treatment. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The 90-day prognostic value of serum cyclophilin A in traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Jin, Hang-Huang; Mao, Tian-Ming; Bai, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Yuan; Ji, Hai-Long; Jin, Yong

2018-06-07

Cyclophilin A is involved in many inflammatory diseases and its expression is up-regulated after brain injury. We determined if serum cyclophilin A could be used as a marker for severity and 90-day outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Serum cyclophilin A concentrations were quantified in 105 severe TBI patients and 105 healthy individuals. Its association with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, 90-day mortality and 90-day poor outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 1-3) were investigated. Serum cyclophilin A concentrations were significantly higher in TBI patients than in healthy individuals. Cyclophilin A concentrations had a close relation to GCS scores and showed a high discriminatory ability for 90-day mortality and poor outcome according to area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Its AUC was in the range of GCS scores. Moreover, its combination with GCS scores significantly improved the predictive performance of GCS scores alone. In addition, serum cyclophilin A emerged as an independent predictor for 90-day mortality, overall survival and poor outcome. Increased serum cyclophilin A concentrations could reflect trauma severity and unfavorable outcome after head trauma, substantializing cyclophilin A as a potential biomarker for prognostic prediction of TBI. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic score to predict mortality during TB treatment in TB/HIV co-infected patients.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc T; Jenkins, Helen E; Graviss, Edward A

2018-01-01

Estimating mortality risk during TB treatment in HIV co-infected patients is challenging for health professionals, especially in a low TB prevalence population, due to the lack of a standardized prognostic system. The current study aimed to develop and validate a simple mortality prognostic scoring system for TB/HIV co-infected patients. Using data from the CDC's Tuberculosis Genotyping Information Management System of TB patients in Texas reported from 01/2010 through 12/2016, age ≥15 years, HIV(+), and outcome being "completed" or "died", we developed and internally validated a mortality prognostic score using multiple logistic regression. Model discrimination was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The model's good calibration was determined by a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test. Among the 450 patients included in the analysis, 57 (12.7%) died during TB treatment. The final prognostic score used six characteristics (age, residence in long-term care facility, meningeal TB, chest x-ray, culture positive, and culture not converted/unknown), which are routinely collected by TB programs. Prognostic scores were categorized into three groups that predicted mortality: low-risk (<20 points), medium-risk (20-25 points) and high-risk (>25 points). The model had good discrimination and calibration (AUC = 0.82; 0.80 in bootstrap validation), and a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test p = 0.71. Our simple validated mortality prognostic scoring system can be a practical tool for health professionals in identifying TB/HIV co-infected patients with high mortality risk.

Hematoma Shape, Hematoma Size, Glasgow Coma Scale Score and ICH Score: Which Predicts the 30-Day Mortality Better for Intracerebral Hematoma?

PubMed Central

Wang, Chih-Wei; Liu, Yi-Jui; Lee, Yi-Hsiung; Hueng, Dueng-Yuan; Fan, Hueng-Chuen; Yang, Fu-Chi; Hsueh, Chun-Jen; Kao, Hung-Wen; Juan, Chun-Jung; Hsu, Hsian-He

2014-01-01

Purpose To investigate the performance of hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, and intracerebral hematoma (ICH) score in predicting the 30-day mortality for ICH patients. To examine the influence of the estimation error of hematoma size on the prediction of 30-day mortality. Materials and Methods This retrospective study, approved by a local institutional review board with written informed consent waived, recruited 106 patients diagnosed as ICH by non-enhanced computed tomography study. The hemorrhagic shape, hematoma size measured by computer-assisted volumetric analysis (CAVA) and estimated by ABC/2 formula, ICH score and GCS score was examined. The predicting performance of 30-day mortality of the aforementioned variables was evaluated. Statistical analysis was performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, paired t test, nonparametric test, linear regression analysis, and binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristics curves were plotted and areas under curve (AUC) were calculated for 30-day mortality. A P value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results The overall 30-day mortality rate was 15.1% of ICH patients. The hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH score, and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality for ICH patients, with an AUC of 0.692 (P = 0.0018), 0.715 (P = 0.0008) (by ABC/2) to 0.738 (P = 0.0002) (by CAVA), 0.877 (P<0.0001) (by ABC/2) to 0.882 (P<0.0001) (by CAVA), and 0.912 (P<0.0001), respectively. Conclusion Our study shows that hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH scores and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality in an increasing order of AUC. The effect of overestimation of hematoma size by ABC/2 formula in predicting the 30-day mortality could be remedied by using ICH score. PMID:25029592

A systematic review finds methodological improvements necessary for prognostic models in determining traumatic brain injury outcomes.

PubMed

Mushkudiani, Nino A; Hukkelhoven, Chantal W P M; Hernández, Adrián V; Murray, Gordon D; Choi, Sung C; Maas, Andrew I R; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2008-04-01

To describe the modeling techniques used for early prediction of outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to identify aspects for potential improvements. We reviewed key methodological aspects of studies published between 1970 and 2005 that proposed a prognostic model for the Glasgow Outcome Scale of TBI based on admission data. We included 31 papers. Twenty-four were single-center studies, and 22 reported on fewer than 500 patients. The median of the number of initially considered predictors was eight, and on average five of these were selected for the prognostic model, generally including age, Glasgow Coma Score (or only motor score), and pupillary reactivity. The most common statistical technique was logistic regression with stepwise selection of predictors. Model performance was often quantified by accuracy rate rather than by more appropriate measures such as the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Model validity was addressed in 15 studies, but mostly used a simple split-sample approach, and external validation was performed in only four studies. Although most models agree on the three most important predictors, many were developed on small sample sizes within single centers and hence lack generalizability. Modeling strategies have to be improved, and include external validation.

Inflammation-based scoring is a useful prognostic predictor of pulmonary resection for elderly patients with clinical stage I non-small-cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Miyazaki, Takuro; Yamasaki, Naoya; Tsuchiya, Tomoshi; Matsumoto, Keitaro; Kunizaki, Masaki; Taniguchi, Daisuke; Nagayasu, Takeshi

2015-04-01

The number of elderly lung cancer patients requiring surgery has been increasing due to the ageing society and less invasive perioperative procedures. Elderly people usually have various comorbidities, but there are few simple and objective tools that can be used to determine prognostic factors for elderly patients with clinical stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the prognostic factors of surgically treated, over 80-year old patients with clinical stage I NSCLC. The preoperative data of 97 over 80-year old patients with clinical stage I NSCLC were collected at Nagasaki University Hospital from 1990 to 2012. As prognostic factors, inflammation-based scoring systems, including the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) determined by serum levels of C-reactive protein and albumin, the neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were evaluated, as well as other clinicopathological factors, including performance status, body mass index, carcinoembryonic antigen, Charlson comorbidity index and type of surgical procedure. The median age was 82 (range, 80-93) years. There were 62 (64.0%) clinical stage IA cases and 35 IB cases. Operations included 64 (66.0%) lobectomies, 15 segmentectomies and 18 wedge resections. The pathological stage was I in 76 (78.4%) patients, II in 12 (12.4%), III in 8 (8.2%) and IV in 1 (1.0%). Twelve (12.4%) patients underwent mediastinal lymph node dissection. Overall survival and disease-specific 5-year survival rates were 55.5 and 70.0%, respectively. The average GPS score was 0.4 (0-2). Disease-specific 5-year survival was significantly longer with GPS 0 than with GPS 1-2. (74.2%, 53.7%, respectively, P = 0.03). Overall 5-year survival was significantly longer with GPS 0 than with GPS 1-2. (59.7%, 43.1%, respectively, P = 0.005). Both the NLR (median value = 1.9) and the PLR (median value = 117) were not correlated with disease-specific and overall 5-year

A method for reducing misclassification in the extended Glasgow Outcome Score.

PubMed

Lu, Juan; Marmarou, Anthony; Lapane, Kate; Turf, Elizabeth; Wilson, Lindsay

2010-05-01

The eight-point extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) is commonly used as the primary outcome measure in traumatic brain injury (TBI) clinical trials. The outcome is conventionally collected through a structured interview with the patient alone or together with a caretaker. Despite the fact that using the structured interview questionnaires helps reach agreement in GOSE assessment between raters, significant variation remains among different raters. We introduce an alternate GOSE rating system as an aid in determining GOSE scores, with the objective of reducing inter-rater variation in the primary outcome assessment in TBI trials. Forty-five trauma centers were randomly assigned to three groups to assess GOSE scores on sample cases, using the alternative GOSE rating system coupled with central quality control (Group 1), the alternative system alone (Group 2), or conventional structured interviews (Group 3). The inter-rater variation between an expert and untrained raters was assessed for each group and reported through raw agreement and with weighted kappa (kappa) statistics. Groups 2 and 3 without central review yielded inter-rater agreements of 83% (weighted kappa = 0.81; 95% CI 0.69, 0.92) and 83% (weighted kappa = 0.76, 95% CI 0.63, 0.89), respectively, in GOS scores. In GOSE, the groups had an agreement of 76% (weighted kappa = 0.79; 95% CI 0.69, 0.89), and 63% (weighted kappa = 0.70; 95% CI 0.60, 0.81), respectively. The group using the alternative rating system coupled with central monitoring yielded the highest inter-rater agreement among the three groups in rating GOS (97%; weighted kappa = 0.95; 95% CI 0.89, 1.00), and GOSE (97%; weighted kappa = 0.97; 95% CI 0.91, 1.00). The alternate system is an improved GOSE rating method that reduces inter-rater variations and provides for the first time, source documentation and structured narratives that allow a thorough central review of information. The data suggest that a collective effort can be made to

A Method for Reducing Misclassification in the Extended Glasgow Outcome Score

PubMed Central

Marmarou, Anthony; Lapane, Kate; Turf, Elizabeth; Wilson, Lindsay

2010-01-01

Abstract The eight-point extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) is commonly used as the primary outcome measure in traumatic brain injury (TBI) clinical trials. The outcome is conventionally collected through a structured interview with the patient alone or together with a caretaker. Despite the fact that using the structured interview questionnaires helps reach agreement in GOSE assessment between raters, significant variation remains among different raters. We introduce an alternate GOSE rating system as an aid in determining GOSE scores, with the objective of reducing inter-rater variation in the primary outcome assessment in TBI trials. Forty-five trauma centers were randomly assigned to three groups to assess GOSE scores on sample cases, using the alternative GOSE rating system coupled with central quality control (Group 1), the alternative system alone (Group 2), or conventional structured interviews (Group 3). The inter-rater variation between an expert and untrained raters was assessed for each group and reported through raw agreement and with weighted kappa (κ) statistics. Groups 2 and 3 without central review yielded inter-rater agreements of 83% (weighted κ = 0.81; 95% CI 0.69, 0.92) and 83% (weighted κ = 0.76, 95% CI 0.63, 0.89), respectively, in GOS scores. In GOSE, the groups had an agreement of 76% (weighted κ = 0.79; 95% CI 0.69, 0.89), and 63% (weighted κ = 0.70; 95% CI 0.60, 0.81), respectively. The group using the alternative rating system coupled with central monitoring yielded the highest inter-rater agreement among the three groups in rating GOS (97%; weighted κ = 0.95; 95% CI 0.89, 1.00), and GOSE (97%; weighted κ = 0.97; 95% CI 0.91, 1.00). The alternate system is an improved GOSE rating method that reduces inter-rater variations and provides for the first time, source documentation and structured narratives that allow a thorough central review of information. The data suggest that a collective effort can be

A novel gene expression-based prognostic scoring system to predict survival in gastric cancer

DOE PAGES

Wang, Pin; Wang, Yunshan; Hang, Bo; ...

2016-07-11

Analysis of gene expression patterns in gastric cancer (GC) can help to identify a comprehensive panel of gene biomarkers for predicting clinical outcomes and to discover potential new therapeutic targets. Here, a multi-step bioinformatics analytic approach was developed to establish a novel prognostic scoring system for GC. We first identified 276 genes that were robustly differentially expressed between normal and GC tissues, of which, 249 were found to be significantly associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate Cox regression analysis. The biological functions of 249 genes are related to cell cycle, RNA/ncRNA process, acetylation and extracellular matrix organization. A networkmore » was generated for view of the gene expression architecture of 249 genes in 265 GCs. Finally, we applied a canonical discriminant analysis approach to identify a 53-gene signature and a prognostic scoring system was established based on a canonical discriminant function of 53 genes. The prognostic scores strongly predicted patients with GC to have either a poor or good OS. Our study raises the prospect that the practicality of GC patient prognosis can be assessed by this prognostic scoring system.« less

A novel gene expression-based prognostic scoring system to predict survival in gastric cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Pin; Wang, Yunshan; Hang, Bo

Analysis of gene expression patterns in gastric cancer (GC) can help to identify a comprehensive panel of gene biomarkers for predicting clinical outcomes and to discover potential new therapeutic targets. Here, a multi-step bioinformatics analytic approach was developed to establish a novel prognostic scoring system for GC. We first identified 276 genes that were robustly differentially expressed between normal and GC tissues, of which, 249 were found to be significantly associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate Cox regression analysis. The biological functions of 249 genes are related to cell cycle, RNA/ncRNA process, acetylation and extracellular matrix organization. A networkmore » was generated for view of the gene expression architecture of 249 genes in 265 GCs. Finally, we applied a canonical discriminant analysis approach to identify a 53-gene signature and a prognostic scoring system was established based on a canonical discriminant function of 53 genes. The prognostic scores strongly predicted patients with GC to have either a poor or good OS. Our study raises the prospect that the practicality of GC patient prognosis can be assessed by this prognostic scoring system.« less

Application of prognostic scores in the STOPAH trial: Discriminant function is no longer the optimal scoring system in alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Forrest, Ewan H; Atkinson, Stephen R; Richardson, Paul; Masson, Steven; Ryder, Stephen; Thursz, Mark R; Allison, Michael

2018-03-01

'Static' prognostic models in alcoholic hepatitis, using data from a single time point, include the discriminant function (DF), Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (GAHS), the age, serum bilirubin, international normalized ratio and serum creatinine (ABIC) score and the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD). 'Dynamic' scores, incorporating evolution of bilirubin at seven days, include the Lille score. The aim of this study was to assess these scores' performance in patients from the STOPAH trial. Predictive performance of scores was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The effect of different therapeutic strategies upon survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and tested using the log-rank test. A total of 1,068 patients were studied. The AUCs for the DF were significantly lower than for MELD, ABIC and GAHS for both 28- and 90-day outcomes: 90-day values were 0.670, 0.704, 0.726 and 0.713, respectively. 'Dynamic' scores and change in 'static' scores by Day 7 had similar AUCs. Patients with consistently low 'static' scores had low 28-day mortalities that were not improved with prednisolone (MELD <25: 8.6%; ABIC <6.71: 6.6%; GAHS <9: 5.9%). In patients with high 'static' scores without gastrointestinal bleeding or sepsis, prednisolone reduced 28-day mortality (MELD: 22.2% vs. 28.9%, p = 0.13; ABIC 14.6% vs. 21%, p = 0.02; GAHS 21% vs. 29.3%, p = 0.04). Overall mortality from treating all patients with a DF ≥32 and Lille assessment (90-day mortality 26.8%) was greater than combining newer 'static' and 'dynamic' scores (90-day mortality: MELD/Lille 21.8%; ABIC/Lille 23.7%; GAHS/Lille 20.6%). MELD, ABIC and GAHS are superior to the DF in alcoholic hepatitis. Consistently low scores have a favourable outcome not improved with prednisolone. Combined baseline 'static' and Day 7 scores reduce the number of patients exposed to corticosteroids and improve 90-day outcome. Alcoholic hepatitis is a life-threatening condition. Several

Inflammation scores predict survival for hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients after transarterial chemoembolization

PubMed Central

Zhou, Dong-Sheng; Xu, Li; Luo, Yao-Ling; He, Feng-Ying; Huang, Jun-Ting; Zhang, Yao-Jun; Chen, Min-Shan

2015-01-01

AIM: To compare the prognostic ability of inflammation scores for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). METHODS: Data of 224 consecutive patients who underwent TACE for unresectable HBV-related HCC from September 2009 to November 2011 were retrieved from a prospective database. The association of inflammation scores with clinicopathologic variables and overall survival (OS) were analyzed, and receiver operating characteristic curves were generated, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the discriminatory ability of each inflammation score and staging system, including tumor-node-metastasis, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) scores. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 390 d, the one-, two-, and three-year OS were 38.4%, 18.3%, and 11.1%, respectively, and the median OS was 390 d. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modifed GPS, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and Prognostic Index were associated with OS. The GPS consistently had a higher AUC value at 6 mo (0.702), 12 mo (0.676), and 24 mo (0.687) in comparison with other inflammation scores. CLIP consistently had a higher AUC value at 6 mo (0.656), 12 mo (0.711), and 24 mo (0.721) in comparison with tumor-node-metastasis and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging systems. Multivariate analysis revealed that alanine aminotransferase, GPS, and CLIP were independent prognostic factors for OS. The combination of GPS and CLIP (AUC = 0.777) was superior to CLIP or GPS alone in prognostic ability for OS. CONCLUSION: The prognostic ability of GPS is superior to other inflammation scores for HCC patients undergoing TACE. Combining GPS and CLIP improved the prognostic power for OS. PMID:25987783

Evaluation of novel computerized tomography scoring systems in human traumatic brain injury: An observational, multicenter study

PubMed Central

Kivisaari, Riku; Svensson, Mikael; Skrifvars, Markus B.

2017-01-01

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Computerized tomography (CT) scanning of the brain is essential for diagnostic screening of intracranial injuries in need of neurosurgical intervention, but may also provide information concerning patient prognosis and enable baseline risk stratification in clinical trials. Novel CT scoring systems have been developed to improve current prognostic models, including the Stockholm and Helsinki CT scores, but so far have not been extensively validated. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the Stockholm and Helsinki CT scores for predicting functional outcome, in comparison with the Rotterdam CT score and Marshall CT classification. The secondary aims were to assess which individual components of the CT scores best predict outcome and what additional prognostic value the CT scoring systems contribute to a clinical prognostic model. Methods and findings TBI patients requiring neuro-intensive care and not included in the initial creation of the Stockholm and Helsinki CT scoring systems were retrospectively included from prospectively collected data at the Karolinska University Hospital (n = 720 from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2014) and Helsinki University Hospital (n = 395 from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2014), totaling 1,115 patients. The Marshall CT classification and the Rotterdam, Stockholm, and Helsinki CT scores were assessed using the admission CT scans. Known outcome predictors at admission were acquired (age, pupil responsiveness, admission Glasgow Coma Scale, glucose level, and hemoglobin level) and used in univariate, and multivariable, regression models to predict long-term functional outcome (dichotomizations of the Glasgow Outcome Scale [GOS]). In total, 478 patients (43%) had an unfavorable outcome (GOS 1–3). In the combined cohort, overall prognostic performance was more accurate for the Stockholm CT score (Nagelkerke’s pseudo-R2 range 0.24–0

Prognostic scores in oesophageal or gastric variceal bleeding.

PubMed

Ohmann, C; Stöltzing, H; Wins, L; Busch, E; Thon, K

1990-05-01

Numerous scoring systems have been developed for the prediction of outcome of variceal bleeding; however, only a few have been evaluated adequately. The object of this study was to improve the classical Child-Pugh score (CPS) and to test other scores from the literature. Patients (n = 82) with endoscopically confirmed variceal bleeding and long-term sclerotherapy were included in the study. Linear logistic regression (LR) was applied to different sets of prognostic variables with regard to 30-day mortality. In addition, scores from the literature were evaluated on the data set. Performance was measured by the accuracy and receiver-operating characteristic curves. The application of LR to all five CPS variables (accuracy, 80%) was superior to the classical CPS (70%). LR with selection from the CPS variables or from other sets of variables resulted in no improvement. Compared with CPS only three scores from the literature, mainly based on subsets of the CPS variables, showed an improved accuracy. It is concluded that CPS is still a good scoring system; however, it can be improved by statistical analysis using the same variables.

Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is a prognostic marker for gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

PubMed

Kuroda, Daisuke; Sawayama, Hiroshi; Kurashige, Junji; Iwatsuki, Masaaki; Eto, Tsugio; Tokunaga, Ryuma; Kitano, Yuki; Yamamura, Kensuke; Ouchi, Mayuko; Nakamura, Kenichi; Baba, Yoshifumi; Sakamoto, Yasuo; Yamashita, Yoichi; Yoshida, Naoya; Chikamoto, Akira; Baba, Hideo

2018-03-01

Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT), as calculated from serum albumin, total cholesterol concentration, and total lymphocyte count, was previously shown to be useful for nutritional assessment. The current study investigated the potential use of CONUT as a prognostic marker in gastric cancer patients after curative resection. Preoperative CONUT was retrospectively calculated in 416 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection at Kumamoto University Hospital from 2005 to 2014. The patients were divided into two groups: CONUT-high (≥4) and CONUT-low (≤3), according to time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The associations of CONUT with clinicopathological factors and survival were evaluated. CONUT-high patients were significantly older (p < 0.001) and had a lower body mass index (p = 0.019), deeper invasion (p < 0.001), higher serum carcinoembryonic antigen (p = 0.037), and higher serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (p = 0.007) compared with CONUT-low patients. CONUT-high patients had significantly poorer overall survival (OS) compared with CONUT-low patients according to univariate and multivariate analyses (hazard ratio: 5.09, 95% confidence interval 3.12-8.30, p < 0.001). In time-dependent ROC analysis, CONUT had a higher area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the prediction of 5-year OS than the neutrophil lymphocyte ratio, the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, or pStage. When the time-dependent AUC curve was used to predict OS, CONUT tended to maintain its predictive accuracy for long-term survival at a significantly higher level for an extended period after surgery when compared with the other markers tested. CONUT is useful for not only estimating nutritional status but also for predicting long-term OS in gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

Exploring the social, emotional and behavioural development of preschool children: is Glasgow different?

PubMed

Marryat, Louise; Thompson, Lucy; Minnis, Helen; Wilson, Philip

2015-01-17

Glasgow City has poorer adolescent and adult health outcomes in comparison to demographically similar cities in England and the rest of Scotland. Until now, little exploration of differences in child development between Glasgow and other areas has been made. The authors hypothesized that the poorer health outcomes and lifestyle behaviours of adults, coupled with relative economic deprivation, may impact on child social, emotional and behavioural development, compared with children from other parts of Scotland. Data from the Growing Up in Scotland national birth cohort study were used. Differences between Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) scores and child and family characteristics of children living in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC) Health board vs. other health boards were examined. Logistic regression and linear regression models were fitted in order to explore independent associations between health board and SDQ raw and banded scores, respectively, whilst controlling for other contributing factors. Children in GGC were demographically different from those in other areas of Scotland, being significantly more likely to live in the most deprived areas, yet no difference was found in relation to the mental health of preschool-aged children in GGC. Children in GGC had slightly better SDQ Conduct Problems scores once demographic factors were controlled for. At 46 months, there does not appear to be any difference in Glasgow with regards to social, emotional and behavioural development. Glaswegian children appear to have slightly fewer conduct problems at this age, once demographics are taken into account. A range of theories are put forward as to why no differences were found, including the inclusion of areas adjacent to Glasgow City in the analysis, sleeper effects, and rater bias.

Non-hematologic predictors of mortality improve the prognostic value of the international prognostic scoring system for MDS in older adults†

PubMed Central

Fega, K. Rebecca; Abel, Gregory A.; Motyckova, Gabriela; Sherman, Alexander E.; DeAngelo, Daniel J.; Steensma, David P.; Galinsky, Ilene; Wadleigh, Martha; Stone, Richard M.; Driver, Jane A.

2016-01-01

Objectives The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) is commonly used to predict survival and assign treatment for the myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). We explored whether self-reported and readily available non-hematologic predictors of survival add independent prognostic information to the IPSS. Materials and Methods Retrospective cohort study of consecutive MDS patients ≥age 65 who presented to Dana-Farber Cancer Institute between 2006 and 2011 and completed a baseline quality of life questionnaire. Questions corresponding to functional status and symptoms and extracted clinical-pathologic data from medical records. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate survival. Results One hundred fourteen patients consented and were available for analysis. Median age was 73 years, and the majority of patients were White, were male, and had a Charlson comorbidity score of <2. Few patients (24%) had an IPSS score consistent with lower-risk disease and the majority received chemotherapy. In addition to IPSS score and history of prior chemotherapy or radiation, significant univariate predictors of survival included low serum albumin, Charlson score, performance status, ability to take a long walk, and interference of physical symptoms in family life. The multivariate model that best predicted mortality included low serum albumin (HR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.06–5.14), therapy-related MDS (HR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.16–4.24), IPSS score (HR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.14–2.49), and ease taking a long walk (HR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.23–0.90). Conclusions In this study of older adults with MDS, we found that low serum albumin and physical function added important prognostic information to the IPSS score. Self-reported physical function was more predictive than physician-assigned performance status. PMID:26073533

Using the abbreviated injury severity and Glasgow Coma Scale scores to predict 2-week mortality after traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Timmons, Shelly D; Bee, Tiffany; Webb, Sharon; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon R; Hesdorffer, Dale

2011-11-01

Prediction of outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains elusive. We tested the use of a single hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) Score, GCS Motor Score, and the Head component of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) Score to predict 2-week cumulative mortality in a large cohort of TBI patients admitted to the eight U.S. Level I trauma centers in the TBI Clinical Trials Network. Data on 2,808 TBI patients were entered into a centralized database. These TBI patients were categorized as severe (GCS score, 3-8), moderate (9-12), or complicated mild (13-15 with positive computed tomography findings). Intubation and chemical paralysis were recorded. The cumulative incidence of mortality in the first 2 weeks after head injury was calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the magnitude of the risk for 2-week mortality. Two-week cumulative mortality was independently predicted by GCS, GCS Motor Score, and Head AIS. GCS Severity Category and GCS Motor Score were stronger predictors of 2-week mortality than Head AIS. There was also an independent effect of age (<60 vs. ≥60) on mortality after controlling for both GCS and Head AIS Scores. Anatomic and physiologic scales are useful in the prediction of mortality after TBI. We did not demonstrate any added benefit to combining the total GCS or GCS Motor Scores with the Head AIS Score in the short-term prediction of death after TBI.

Effect of the Modified Glasgow Coma Scale Score Criteria for Mild Traumatic Brain Injury on Mortality Prediction: Comparing Classic and Modified Glasgow Coma Scale Score Model Scores of 13

PubMed Central

Mena, Jorge Humberto; Sanchez, Alvaro Ignacio; Rubiano, Andres M.; Peitzman, Andrew B.; Sperry, Jason L.; Gutierrez, Maria Isabel; Puyana, Juan Carlos

2011-01-01

Objective The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) classifies Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBI) as Mild (14–15); Moderate (9–13) or Severe (3–8). The ATLS modified this classification so that a GCS score of 13 is categorized as mild TBI. We investigated the effect of this modification on mortality prediction, comparing patients with a GCS of 13 classified as moderate TBI (Classic Model) to patients with GCS of 13 classified as mild TBI (Modified Model). Methods We selected adult TBI patients from the Pennsylvania Outcome Study database (PTOS). Logistic regressions adjusting for age, sex, cause, severity, trauma center level, comorbidities, and isolated TBI were performed. A second evaluation included the time trend of mortality. A third evaluation also included hypothermia, hypotension, mechanical ventilation, screening for drugs, and severity of TBI. Discrimination of the models was evaluated using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was evaluated using the Hoslmer-Lemershow goodness of fit (GOF) test. Results In the first evaluation, the AUCs were 0.922 (95 %CI, 0.917–0.926) and 0.908 (95 %CI, 0.903–0.912) for classic and modified models, respectively. Both models showed poor calibration (p<0.001). In the third evaluation, the AUCs were 0.946 (95 %CI, 0.943 – 0.949) and 0.938 (95 %CI, 0.934 –0.940) for the classic and modified models, respectively, with improvements in calibration (p=0.30 and p=0.02 for the classic and modified models, respectively). Conclusion The lack of overlap between ROC curves of both models reveals a statistically significant difference in their ability to predict mortality. The classic model demonstrated better GOF than the modified model. A GCS of 13 classified as moderate TBI in a multivariate logistic regression model performed better than a GCS of 13 classified as mild. PMID:22071923

Prognostic scoring systems for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in a population-based setting: a report from the Swedish MDS register.

PubMed

Moreno Berggren, Daniel; Folkvaljon, Yasin; Engvall, Marie; Sundberg, Johan; Lambe, Mats; Antunovic, Petar; Garelius, Hege; Lorenz, Fryderyk; Nilsson, Lars; Rasmussen, Bengt; Lehmann, Sören; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Jädersten, Martin; Ejerblad, Elisabeth

2018-06-01

The myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) have highly variable outcomes and prognostic scoring systems are important tools for risk assessment and to guide therapeutic decisions. However, few population-based studies have compared the value of the different scoring systems. With data from the nationwide Swedish population-based MDS register we validated the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), revised IPSS (IPSS-R) and the World Health Organization (WHO) Classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS). We also present population-based data on incidence, clinical characteristics including detailed cytogenetics and outcome from the register. The study encompassed 1329 patients reported to the register between 2009 and 2013, 14% of these had therapy-related MDS (t-MDS). Based on the MDS register, the yearly crude incidence of MDS in Sweden was 2·9 per 100 000 inhabitants. IPSS-R had a significantly better prognostic power than IPSS (P < 0·001). There was a trend for better prognostic power of IPSS-R compared to WPSS (P = 0·05) and for WPSS compared to IPSS (P = 0·07). IPSS-R was superior to both IPSS and WPSS for patients aged ≤70 years. Patients with t-MDS had a worse outcome compared to de novo MDS (d-MDS), however, the validity of the prognostic scoring systems was comparable for d-MDS and t-MDS. In conclusion, population-based studies are important to validate prognostic scores in a 'real-world' setting. In our nationwide cohort, the IPSS-R showed the best predictive power. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictive value of seven preoperative prognostic scoring systems for spinal metastases.

PubMed

Leithner, Andreas; Radl, Roman; Gruber, Gerald; Hochegger, Markus; Leithner, Katharina; Welkerling, Heike; Rehak, Peter; Windhager, Reinhard

2008-11-01

Predicting prognosis is the key factor in selecting the proper treatment modality for patients with spinal metastases. Therefore, various assessment systems have been designed in order to provide a basis for deciding the course of treatment. Such systems have been proposed by Tokuhashi, Sioutos, Tomita, Van der Linden, and Bauer. The scores differ greatly in the kind of parameters assessed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of each score. Eight parameters were assessed for 69 patients (37 male, 32 female): location, general condition, number of extraspinal bone metastases, number of spinal metastases, visceral metastases, primary tumour, severity of spinal cord palsy, and pathological fracture. Scores according to Tokuhashi (original and revised), Sioutos, Tomita, Van der Linden, and Bauer were assessed as well as a modified Bauer score without scoring for pathologic fracture. Nineteen patients were still alive as of September 2006 with a minimum follow-up of 12 months. All other patients died after a mean period of 17 months after operation. The mean overall survival period was only 3 months for lung cancer, followed by prostate (7 months), kidney (23 months), breast (35 months), and multiple myeloma (51 months). At univariate survival analysis, primary tumour and visceral metastases were significant parameters, while Karnofsky score was only significant in the group including myeloma patients. In multivariate analysis of all seven parameters assessed, primary tumour and visceral metastases were the only significant parameters. Of all seven scoring systems, the original Bauer score and a Bauer score without scoring for pathologic fracture had the best association with survival (P < 0.001). The data of the present study emphasize that the original Bauer score and a modified Bauer score without scoring for pathologic fracture seem to be practicable and highly predictive preoperative scoring systems for patients with spinal metastases

Predictive value of seven preoperative prognostic scoring systems for spinal metastases

PubMed Central

Leithner, Andreas; Radl, Roman; Gruber, Gerald; Hochegger, Markus; Leithner, Katharina; Welkerling, Heike; Rehak, Peter

2008-01-01

Predicting prognosis is the key factor in selecting the proper treatment modality for patients with spinal metastases. Therefore, various assessment systems have been designed in order to provide a basis for deciding the course of treatment. Such systems have been proposed by Tokuhashi, Sioutos, Tomita, Van der Linden, and Bauer. The scores differ greatly in the kind of parameters assessed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of each score. Eight parameters were assessed for 69 patients (37 male, 32 female): location, general condition, number of extraspinal bone metastases, number of spinal metastases, visceral metastases, primary tumour, severity of spinal cord palsy, and pathological fracture. Scores according to Tokuhashi (original and revised), Sioutos, Tomita, Van der Linden, and Bauer were assessed as well as a modified Bauer score without scoring for pathologic fracture. Nineteen patients were still alive as of September 2006 with a minimum follow-up of 12 months. All other patients died after a mean period of 17 months after operation. The mean overall survival period was only 3 months for lung cancer, followed by prostate (7 months), kidney (23 months), breast (35 months), and multiple myeloma (51 months). At univariate survival analysis, primary tumour and visceral metastases were significant parameters, while Karnofsky score was only significant in the group including myeloma patients. In multivariate analysis of all seven parameters assessed, primary tumour and visceral metastases were the only significant parameters. Of all seven scoring systems, the original Bauer score and a Bauer score without scoring for pathologic fracture had the best association with survival (P < 0.001). The data of the present study emphasize that the original Bauer score and a modified Bauer score without scoring for pathologic fracture seem to be practicable and highly predictive preoperative scoring systems for patients with spinal

Clinical implications of six inflammatory biomarkers as prognostic indicators in Ewing sarcoma

PubMed Central

Li, Yong-Jiang; Yang, Xi; Zhang, Wen-Biao; Yi, Cheng; Wang, Feng; Li, Ping

2017-01-01

Cancer-related systemic inflammation responses have been correlated with cancer development and progression. The prognostic significance of several inflammatory indicators, including neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR), Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CRP/Alb ratio), lymphocyte–monocyte ratio (LMR), and neutrophil–platelet score (NPS), were found to be correlated with prognosis in several cancers. However, the prognostic role of these inflammatory biomarkers in Ewing sarcoma has not been evaluated. This study enrolled 122 Ewing patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was generated to determine optimal cutoff values; areas under the curves (AUCs) were assessed to show the discriminatory ability of the biomarkers; Kaplan–Meier analysis was conducted to plot the survival curves; and Cox multivariate survival analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors. The optimal cutoff values of CRP/Alb ratio, NLR, PLR, and LMR were 0.225, 2.38, 131, and 4.41, respectively. CRP/Alb ratio had a significantly larger AUC than NLR, PLR, LMR, and NPS. Higher levels of CRP/Alb ratio (hazard ratio [HR] 2.41, P=0.005), GPS (HR 2.27, P=0.006), NLR (HR 2.07, P=0.013), and PLR (HR 1.85, P=0.032) were significantly correlated with poor prognosis. As the biomarkers had internal correlations, only the CRP/Alb ratio was involved in the multivariate Cox analysis and remained an independent prognostic indicator. The study demonstrated that CRP/Alb ratio, GPS, and NLR were effective prognostic indicators for patients with Ewing sarcoma, and the CRP/Alb ratio was the most robust prognostic indicator with a discriminatory ability superior to that of the other indicators; however, PLR, LMR, and NPS may not be suitable as prognostic indicators in Ewing sarcoma. PMID:29033609

Prognostic validation of a 17-segment score derived from a 20-segment score for myocardial perfusion SPECT interpretation.

PubMed

Berman, Daniel S; Abidov, Aiden; Kang, Xingping; Hayes, Sean W; Friedman, John D; Sciammarella, Maria G; Cohen, Ishac; Gerlach, James; Waechter, Parker B; Germano, Guido; Hachamovitch, Rory

2004-01-01

Recently, a 17-segment model of the left ventricle has been recommended as an optimally weighted approach for interpreting myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Methods to convert databases from previous 20- to new 17-segment data and criteria for abnormality for the 17-segment scores are needed. Initially, for derivation of the conversion algorithm, 65 patients were studied (algorithm population) (pilot group, n = 28; validation group, n = 37). Three conversion algorithms were derived: algorithm 1, which used mid, distal, and apical scores; algorithm 2, which used distal and apical scores alone; and algorithm 3, which used maximal scores of the distal septal, lateral, and apical segments in the 20-segment model for 3 corresponding segments of the 17-segment model. The prognosis population comprised 16,020 consecutive patients (mean age, 65 +/- 12 years; 41% women) who had exercise or vasodilator stress technetium 99m sestamibi myocardial perfusion SPECT and were followed up for 2.1 +/- 0.8 years. In this population, 17-segment scores were derived from 20-segment scores by use of algorithm 2, which demonstrated the best agreement with expert 17-segment reading in the algorithm population. The prognostic value of the 20- and 17-segment scores was compared by converting the respective summed scores into percent myocardium abnormal. Conversion algorithm 2 was found to be highly concordant with expert visual analysis by the 17-segment model (r = 0.982; kappa = 0.866) in the algorithm population. In the prognosis population, 456 cardiac deaths occurred during follow-up. When the conversion algorithm was applied, extent and severity of perfusion defects were nearly identical by 20- and derived 17-segment scores. The receiver operating characteristic curve areas by 20- and 17-segment perfusion scores were identical for predicting cardiac death (both 0.77 +/- 0.02, P = not significant). The optimal prognostic cutoff value for either 20

The Glasgow Benefit Inventory: a systematic review of the use and value of an otorhinolaryngological generic patient-recorded outcome measure

PubMed Central

Hendry, J.; Chin, A.; Swan, I.R.C.; Akeroyd, M.A.; Browning, G.G.

2018-01-01

Background The Glasgow Benefit Inventory (GBI) is a validated, generic patient-recorded outcome measure widely used in otolaryngology to report change in quality of life post-intervention. Objectives of review To date, no systematic review has made (i) a quality assessment of reporting of Glasgow Benefit Inventory outcomes; (ii) a comparison between Glasgow Benefit Inventory outcomes for different interventions and objectives; (iii) an evaluation of subscales in describing the area of benefit; (iv) commented on its value in clinical practice and research. Type of review Systematic review. Search strategy ‘Glasgow Benefit Inventory’ and ‘GBI’ were used as keywords to search for published, unpublished and ongoing trials in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL and Google in addition to an ISI citation search for the original validating Glasgow Benefit Inventory paper between 1996 and January 2015. Evaluation method Papers were assessed for study type and quality graded by a predesigned scale, by two authors independently. Papers with sufficient quality Glasgow Benefit Inventory data were identified for statistical comparisons. Papers with <50% follow-up were excluded. Results A total of 118 eligible papers were identified for inclusion. A national audit paper (n = 4325) showed that the Glasgow Benefit Inventory gave a range of scores across the specialty, being greater for surgical intervention than medical intervention or ‘reassurance’. Fourteen papers compared one form of surgery versus another form of surgery. In all but one study, there was no difference between the Glasgow Benefit Inventory scores (or of any other outcome). The most likely reason was lack of power. Two papers took an epidemiological approach and used the Glasgow Benefit Inventory scores to predict benefit. One was for tonsillectomy where duration of sore throat episodes and days with fever were identified on multivariate analysis to predict benefit albeit the precision was low. However, the

The Glasgow Benefit Inventory: a systematic review of the use and value of an otorhinolaryngological generic patient-recorded outcome measure.

PubMed

Hendry, J; Chin, A; Swan, I R C; Akeroyd, M A; Browning, G G

2016-06-01

The Glasgow Benefit Inventory (GBI) is a validated, generic patient-recorded outcome measure widely used in otolaryngology to report change in quality of life post-intervention. To date, no systematic review has made (i) a quality assessment of reporting of Glasgow Benefit Inventory outcomes; (ii) a comparison between Glasgow Benefit Inventory outcomes for different interventions and objectives; (iii) an evaluation of subscales in describing the area of benefit; (iv) commented on its value in clinical practice and research. Systematic review. 'Glasgow Benefit Inventory' and 'GBI' were used as keywords to search for published, unpublished and ongoing trials in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL and Google in addition to an ISI citation search for the original validating Glasgow Benefit Inventory paper between 1996 and January 2015. Papers were assessed for study type and quality graded by a predesigned scale, by two authors independently. Papers with sufficient quality Glasgow Benefit Inventory data were identified for statistical comparisons. Papers with <50% follow-up were excluded. A total of 118 eligible papers were identified for inclusion. A national audit paper (n = 4325) showed that the Glasgow Benefit Inventory gave a range of scores across the specialty, being greater for surgical intervention than medical intervention or 'reassurance'. Fourteen papers compared one form of surgery versus another form of surgery. In all but one study, there was no difference between the Glasgow Benefit Inventory scores (or of any other outcome). The most likely reason was lack of power. Two papers took an epidemiological approach and used the Glasgow Benefit Inventory scores to predict benefit. One was for tonsillectomy where duration of sore throat episodes and days with fever were identified on multivariate analysis to predict benefit albeit the precision was low. However, the traditional factor of number of episodes of sore throat was not predictive. The other was surgery for

A novel H-FABP assay and a fast prognostic score for risk assessment of normotensive pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Dellas, Claudia; Tschepe, Merle; Seeber, Valerie; Zwiener, Isabella; Kuhnert, Katherina; Schäfer, Katrin; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Konstantinides, Stavros; Lankeit, Mareike

2014-05-05

We tested whether heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) measured by a fully-automated immunoturbidimetric assay in comparison to ELISA provides additive prognostic value in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE), and validated a fast prognostic score in comparison to the ESC risk prediction model and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI). We prospectively examined 271 normotensive patients with PE; of those, 20 (7%) had an adverse 30-day outcome. H-FABP levels determined by immunoturbidimetry were higher (median, 5.2 [IQR; 2.7-9.8] ng/ml) than those by ELISA (2.9 [1.1-5.4] ng/ml), but Bland-Altman plot demonstrated a good agreement of both assays. The area under the curve for H-FABP was greater for immunoturbidimetry than for ELISA (0.82 [0.74-0.91] vs 0.78 [0.68-0.89]; P=0.039). H-FABP measured by immunoturbidimetry (but not by ELISA) provided additive prognostic information to other predictors of 30-day outcome (OR, 12.4 [95% CI, 1.6-97.6]; P=0.017). When H-FABP determined by immunoturbidimetry was integrated into a novel prognostic score (H-FABP, Syncope, and Tachycardia; FAST score), the score provided additive prognostic information by multivariable analysis (OR, 14.2 [3.9-51.4]; p<0.001; c-index, 0.86) which were superior to information obtained by the ESC model (c-index, 0.62; net reclassification improvement (NRI), 0.39 [0.21-0.56]; P<0.001) or the sPESI (c-index, 0.68; NRI, 0.24 [0.05-0.43]; P=0.012). In conclusion, determination of H-FABP by immunoturbidimetry provides prognostic information superior to that of ELISA and, if integrated in the FAST score, appears more suitable to identify patients with an adverse 30-day outcome compared to the ESC model and sPESI.

Prognostic value of baseline seric Syndecan-1 in initially unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer patients: a simple biological score.

PubMed

Jary, Marine; Lecomte, Thierry; Bouché, Olivier; Kim, Stefano; Dobi, Erion; Queiroz, Lise; Ghiringhelli, Francois; Etienne, Hélène; Léger, Julie; Godet, Yann; Balland, Jérémy; Lakkis, Zaher; Adotevi, Olivier; Bonnetain, Franck; Borg, Christophe; Vernerey, Dewi

2016-11-15

In first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline prognostic factors allowing death risk and treatment strategy stratification are lacking. Syndecan-1 (CD138) soluble form was never described as a prognostic biomarker in mCRC. We investigated its additional prognostic value for overall survival (OS). mCRC patients with unresectable disease at diagnosis were treated with bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in two independent prospective clinical trials (development set: n = 126, validation set: n = 51, study NCT00489697 and study NCT00544011, respectively). Serums were collected at baseline for CD138 measurement. OS determinants were assessed and, based on the final multivariate model, a prognostic score was proposed. Two independent OS prognostic factors were identified: Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) high level (p = 0.0066) and log-CD138 high level (p = 0.0190). The determination of CD138 binary information (cutoff: 75 ng/mL) allowed the assessment of a biological prognostic score with CD138 and LDH values, identifying three risk groups for death (median OS= 38.9, 30.1 and 19.8 months for the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively; p < 0.0001). This score had a good discrimination ability (C-index = 0.63). These results were externally confirmed in the validation set. Our study provides robust evidence in favor of the additional baseline soluble CD138 prognostic value for OS, in mCRC patients. A simple biological scoring system is proposed including LDH and CD138 binary status values. © 2016 UICC.

Prognostic nomogram and score to predict overall survival in locally advanced untreated pancreatic cancer (PROLAP)

PubMed Central

Vernerey, Dewi; Huguet, Florence; Vienot, Angélique; Goldstein, David; Paget-Bailly, Sophie; Van Laethem, Jean-Luc; Glimelius, Bengt; Artru, Pascal; Moore, Malcolm J; André, Thierry; Mineur, Laurent; Chibaudel, Benoist; Benetkiewicz, Magdalena; Louvet, Christophe; Hammel, Pascal; Bonnetain, Franck

2016-01-01

Background: The management of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) patients remains controversial. Better discrimination for overall survival (OS) at diagnosis is needed. We address this issue by developing and validating a prognostic nomogram and a score for OS in LAPC (PROLAP). Methods: Analyses were derived from 442 LAPC patients enrolled in the LAP07 trial. The prognostic ability of 30 baseline parameters was evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were done with Harrell's C-index, calibration plot and bootstrap sample procedures. On the basis of the final model, a prognostic nomogram and a score were developed, and externally validated in 106 consecutive LAPC patients treated in Besançon Hospital, France. Results: Age, pain, tumour size, albumin and CA 19-9 were independent prognostic factors for OS. The final model had good calibration, acceptable discrimination (C-index=0.60) and robust internal validity. The PROLAP score has the potential to delineate three different prognosis groups with median OS of 15.4, 11.7 and 8.5 months (log-rank P<0.0001). The score ability to discriminate OS was externally confirmed in 63 (59%) patients with complete clinical data derived from a data set of 106 consecutive LAPC patients; median OS of 18.3, 14.1 and 7.6 months for the three groups (log-rank P<0.0001). Conclusions: The PROLAP nomogram and score can accurately predict OS before initiation of induction chemotherapy in LAPC-untreated patients. They may help to optimise clinical trials design and might offer the opportunity to define risk-adapted strategies for LAPC management in the future. PMID:27404456

An internally validated new clinical and inflammation-based prognostic score for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

PubMed

Diaz-Beveridge, R; Bruixola, G; Lorente, D; Caballero, J; Rodrigo, E; Segura, Á; Akhoundova, D; Giménez, A; Aparicio, J

2018-03-01

Sorafenib is a standard treatment for patients (pts) with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC), although the clinical benefit is heterogeneous between different pts groups. Among novel prognostic factors, a low baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (bNLR) and early-onset diarrhoea have been linked with a better prognosis. To identify prognostic factors in pts with aHCC treated with 1st-line sorafenib and to develop a new prognostic score to guide management. Retrospective review of 145 pts bNLR, overall toxicity, early toxicity rates and overall survival (OS) were assessed. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for OS was performed. The prognostic score was calculated from the coefficients found in the Cox analysis. ROC curves and pseudoR2 index were used for internal validation. Discrimination ability and calibration were tested by Harrel's c-index (HCI) and Akaike criteria (AIC). The optimal bNLR cut-off for the prediction of OS was 4 (AUC 0.62). Independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis for OS were performance status (PS) (p < .0001), Child-Pugh (C-P) score (p = 0.005), early-onset diarrhoea (p = 0.006) and BNLR (0.011). The prognostic score based on these four variables was found efficient (HCI = 0.659; AIC = 1.180). Four risk groups for OS could be identified: a very low-risk (median OS = 48.6 months), a low-risk (median OS = 11.6 months), an intermediate-risk (median OS = 8.3 months) and a high-risk group (median OS = 4.4 months). PS and C-P score were the main prognostic factors for OS, followed by early-onset diarrhoea and bNLR. We identified four risk groups for OS depending on these parameters. This prognostic model could be useful for patient stratification, but an external validation is needed.

An inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score system in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma in rituximab era.

PubMed

Sun, Feifei; Zhu, Jia; Lu, Suying; Zhen, Zijun; Wang, Juan; Huang, Junting; Ding, Zonghui; Zeng, Musheng; Sun, Xiaofei

2018-01-02

Systemic inflammatory parameters are associated with poor outcomes in malignant patients. Several inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score systems were established for various solid tumors. However, there is few inflammation based cumulative prognostic score system for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively reviewed 564 adult DLBCL patients who had received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone (R-CHOP) therapy between Nov 1 2006 and Dec 30 2013 and assessed the prognostic significance of six systemic inflammatory parameters evaluated in previous studies by univariate and multivariate analysis:C-reactive protein(CRP), albumin levels, the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and fibrinogen levels. Multivariate analysis identified CRP, albumin levels and the LMR are three independent prognostic parameters for overall survival (OS). Based on these three factors, we constructed a novel inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score (ICPS) system. Four risk groups were formed: group ICPS = 0, ICPS = 1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3. Advanced multivariate analysis indicated that the ICPS model is a prognostic score system independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) for both progression-free survival (PFS) (p < 0.001) and OS (p < 0.001). The 3-year OS for patients with ICPS =0, ICPS =1, ICPS =2 and ICPS =3 were 95.6, 88.2, 76.0 and 62.2%, respectively (p < 0.001). The 3-year PFS for patients with ICPS = 0-1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3 were 84.8, 71.6 and 54.5%, respectively (p < 0.001). The prognostic value of the ICPS model indicated that the degree of systemic inflammatory status was associated with clinical outcomes of patients with DLBCL in rituximab era. The ICPS model was shown to classify risk groups more accurately than any single inflammatory prognostic parameters. These findings may be

An 8-gene qRT-PCR-based gene expression score that has prognostic value in early breast cancer

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Gene expression profiling may improve prognostic accuracy in patients with early breast cancer. Our objective was to demonstrate that it is possible to develop a simple molecular signature to predict distant relapse. Methods We included 153 patients with stage I-II hormonal receptor-positive breast cancer. RNA was isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples and qRT-PCR amplification of 83 genes was performed with gene expression assays. The genes we analyzed were those included in the 70-Gene Signature, the Recurrence Score and the Two-Gene Index. The association among gene expression, clinical variables and distant metastasis-free survival was analyzed using Cox regression models. Results An 8-gene prognostic score was defined. Distant metastasis-free survival at 5 years was 97% for patients defined as low-risk by the prognostic score versus 60% for patients defined as high-risk. The 8-gene score remained a significant factor in multivariate analysis and its performance was similar to that of two validated gene profiles: the 70-Gene Signature and the Recurrence Score. The validity of the signature was verified in independent cohorts obtained from the GEO database. Conclusions This study identifies a simple gene expression score that complements histopathological prognostic factors in breast cancer, and can be determined in paraffin-embedded samples. PMID:20584321

Construction of a new, objective prognostic score for terminally ill cancer patients: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Suh, Sang-Yeon; Choi, Youn Seon; Shim, Jae Yong; Kim, Young Sung; Yeom, Chang Hwan; Kim, Daeyoung; Park, Shin Ae; Kim, Sooa; Seo, Ji Yeon; Kim, Su Hyun; Kim, Daegyeun; Choi, Sung-Eun; Ahn, Hong-Yup

2010-02-01

The goal of this study was to develop a new, objective prognostic score (OPS) for terminally ill cancer patients based on an integrated model that includes novel objective prognostic factors. A multicenter study of 209 terminally ill cancer patients from six training hospitals in Korea were prospectively followed until death. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to adjust for the influence of clinical and laboratory variables on survival time. The OPS was calculated from the sum of partial scores obtained from seven significant predictors determined by the final model. The partial score was based on the hazard ratio of each predictor. The accuracy of the OPS was evaluated. The overall median survival was 26 days. On the multivariate analysis, reduced oral intake, resting dyspnea, low performance status, leukocytosis, elevated bilirubin, elevated creatinine, and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were identified as poor prognostic factors. The range of OPS was from 0.0 to 7.0. For the above cutoff point of 3.0, the 3-week prediction sensitivity was 74.7%, the specificity was 76.5%, and the overall accuracy was 75.5%. We developed the new OPS, without clinician's survival estimates but including a new prognostic factor (LDH). This new instrument demonstrated accurate prediction of the 3-week survival. The OPS had acceptable accuracy in this study population (training set). Further validation is required on an independent population (testing set).

A comparison of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) in predictive modelling in traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Kasprowicz, Magdalena; Burzynska, Malgorzata; Melcer, Tomasz; Kübler, Andrzej

2016-01-01

To compare the performance of multivariate predictive models incorporating either the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score or Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) in order to test whether substituting GCS with the FOUR score in predictive models for outcome in patients after TBI is beneficial. A total of 162 TBI patients were prospectively enrolled in the study. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted to compare the prediction of (1) in-ICU mortality and (2) unfavourable outcome at 3 months post-injury using as predictors either the FOUR score or GCS along with other factors that may affect patient outcome. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were used to compare the discriminant ability and predictive power of the models. The internal validation was performed with bootstrap technique and expressed as accuracy rate (AcR). The FOUR score, age, the CT Rotterdam score, systolic ABP and being placed on ventilator within day one (model 1: AUC: 0.906 ± 0.024; AcR: 80.3 ± 4.8%) performed equally well in predicting in-ICU mortality as the combination of GCS with the same set of predictors plus pupil reactivity (model 2: AUC: 0.913 ± 0.022; AcR: 81.1 ± 4.8%). The CT Rotterdam score, age and either the FOUR score (model 3) or GCS (model 4) equally well predicted unfavourable outcome at 3 months post-injury (AUC: 0.852 ± 0.037 vs. 0.866 ± 0.034; AcR: 72.3 ± 6.6% vs. 71.9%±6.6%, respectively). Adding the FOUR score or GCS at discharge from ICU to predictive models for unfavourable outcome increased significantly their performances (AUC: 0.895 ± 0.029, p = 0.05; AcR: 76.1 ± 6.5%; p < 0.004 when compared with model 3; and AUC: 0.918 ± 0.025, p < 0.05; AcR: 79.6 ± 7.2%, p < 0.009 when compared with model 4), but there was no benefit from substituting GCS with the FOUR score. Results showed that FOUR score and GCS perform equally well in multivariate predictive modelling in TBI.

Development and validation of a prognostic scoring system for patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Such, Esperanza; Germing, Ulrich; Malcovati, Luca; Cervera, José; Kuendgen, Andrea; Della Porta, Matteo G; Nomdedeu, Benet; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Xicoy, Blanca; Amigo, Mari L; Valcarcel, David; Nachtkamp, Kathrin; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Lorenzo, Ignacio; Cazzola, Mario; Sanz, Guillermo

2013-04-11

The natural course of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is highly variable but a widely accepted prognostic scoring system for patients with CMML is not available. The main aim of this study was to develop a new CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) in a large series of 558 patients with CMML (training cohort, Spanish Group of Myelodysplastic Syndromes) and to validate it in an independent series of 274 patients (validation cohort, Heinrich Heine University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, and San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy). The most relevant variables for overall survival (OS) and evolution to acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) were FAB and WHO CMML subtypes, CMML-specific cytogenetic risk classification, and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion dependency. CPSS was able to segregate patients into 4 clearly different risk groups for OS (P < .001) and risk of AML evolution (P < .001) and its predictive capability was confirmed in the validation cohort. An alternative CPSS with hemoglobin instead of RBC transfusion dependency offered almost identical prognostic capability. This study confirms the prognostic impact of FAB and WHO subtypes, recognizes the importance of RBC transfusion dependency and cytogenetics, and offers a simple and powerful CPSS for accurately assessing prognosis and planning therapy in patients with CMML.

Validation of a prognostic score for hidden cancer in unprovoked venous thromboembolism

PubMed Central

Otero, Remedios; Jimenez, David; Praena-Fernandez, Juan Manuel; Font, Carme; Falga, Conxita; Soler, Silvia; Riesco, David; Verhamme, Peter; Monreal, Manuel

2018-01-01

The usefulness of a diagnostic workup for occult cancer in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) is controversial. We used the RIETE (Registro Informatizado Enfermedad Trombo Embólica) database to perform a nested case-control study to validate a prognostic score that identifies patients with unprovoked VTE at increased risk for cancer. We dichotomized patients as having low- (≤2 points) or high (≥3 points) risk for cancer, and tried to validate the score at 12 and 24 months. From January 2014 to October 2016, 11,695 VTE patients were recruited. Of these, 1,360 with unprovoked VTE (11.6%) were eligible for the study. At 12 months, 52 patients (3.8%; 95%CI: 2.9–5%) were diagnosed with cancer. Among 905 patients (67%) scoring ≤2 points, 22 (2.4%) had cancer. Among 455 scoring ≥3 points, 30 (6.6%) had cancer (hazard ratio 2.8; 95%CI 1.6–5; p<0.01). C-statistic was 0.63 (95%CI 0.55–0.71). At 24 months, 58 patients (4.3%; 95%CI: 3.3–5.5%) were diagnosed with cancer. Among 905 patients scoring ≤2 points, 26 (2.9%) had cancer. Among 455 patients scoring ≥3 points, 32 (7%) had cancer (hazard ratio 2.6; 95%CI 1.5–4.3; p<0.01). C-statistic was 0.61 (95%CI, 0.54–0.69). We validated our prognostic score at 12 and 24 months, although prospective cohort validation is needed. This may help to identify patients for whom more extensive screening workup may be required. PMID:29558509

Which score should be used in intubated patients’ Glasgow coma scale or full outline of unresponsiveness?

PubMed Central

Gorji, Mohammad Ali Heidari; Gorji, Ali Morad Heidari; Hosseini, Seyed Hossein

2015-01-01

Background and Aims: Today Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is the most well-known and common score for evaluation of the level of consciousness and outcome predict after traumatic brain injuries in the world. Regarding to some advantages of the full outline of unresponsiveness (FOUR) score over GCS in intubated patients, we’re going to compare the precision of these two scores in predicting the outcome predict in intubated patients. Methods: This research was a diagnostic-based study, which was conducted prospectively on 80 patients with Traumatic brain injury who were intubated and admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of Educational Hospitals of Mazandaran University of Medical Science during February 2013 to August 2013. The scores of FOUR and GCS were measured by the researcher in the first 24 h of admission in ICU. The information's recorded in the check list including the mortality rate of early and late inside of the hospital interred to excel. The findings were analyzed using SPSS software, through descriptive statistics and regression logistic. Results: The results showed of 80 patients 21 patients (20%) were female and 59 patients (80%) were male. The age average of the samples was 33.80 ± 12.60 ranging from 16 to 60 years old. 21 patients (26.2%) died during treatment. Of 21 patients, 15 patients died during first 14 days (18.7%) and 6 patients died after 14 years (7.5%). The area under curve (AUC) of FOUR score in early mortality was 0.90 (C1 = 0.95, 0.88–0.90). The amount AUC for GCS was 0.80 (C1 = 0.95, 0.78–0.84), which in delayed mortality it was ordered as 0.86 (C1 = 0.95, 0.84–0.90) and 0.89 (C1 = 0.95, 0.78–0.88). Conclusion: The research results indicated that FOUR score is more exact and more practical in intubated patients regarding lack of verbal response factor in early mortality prediction in GCS. Hence, it is recommended for health professionals to use the FOUR score to predict the early outcome of intubated patients with traumatic

Prognostic value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Simplified Acute Physiology II Score compared with trauma scores in the outcome of multiple-trauma patients.

PubMed

Fueglistaler, Philipp; Amsler, Felix; Schüepp, Marcel; Fueglistaler-Montali, Ida; Attenberger, Corinna; Pargger, Hans; Jacob, Augustinus Ludwig; Gross, Thomas

2010-08-01

Prospective data regarding the prognostic value of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in comparison with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) and trauma scores on the outcome of multiple-trauma patients are lacking. Single-center evaluation (n = 237, Injury Severity Score [ISS] >16; mean ISS = 29). Uni- and multivariate analysis of SAPS II, SOFA, revised trauma, polytrauma, and trauma and ISS scores (TRISS) was performed. The 30-day mortality was 22.8% (n = 54). SOFA day 1 was significantly higher in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (P < .001) and correlated well with the length of intensive care unit stay (r = .50, P < .001). Logistic regression revealed SAPS II to have the best predictive value of 30-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic = .86 +/- .03). The SOFA score significantly added prognostic information with regard to mortality to both SAPS II and TRISS. The combination of critically ill and trauma scores may increase the accuracy of mortality prediction in multiple-trauma patients. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prognostic value of the systemic inflammatory score in patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Shibutani, Masatsune; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Nagahara, Hisashi; Fukuoka, Tatsunari; Matsutani, Shinji; Kimura, Kenjiro; Amano, Ryosuke; Hirakawa, Kosei; Ohira, Masaichi

2018-07-01

Inflammation has been widely recognized as a contributor to cancer progression and several inflammatory markers have been reported as associated with the clinical outcomes in patients with various types of cancer. Recently, a novel inflammatory marker, the systemic inflammatory score (SIS), which is based on a combination of the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and the serum albumin concentration has been reported as a useful prognostic marker. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of the SIS in patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The retrospective cohort study included 160 patients who underwent combination chemotherapy for unresectable mCRC between January 2008 and December 2016. The SIS was used to classify the patients into three groups based on their LMR and the serum albumin concentration. Patients with high-LMR and high serum albumin level were given a score of 0; patients with low-LMR or low serum albumin level were given a score of 1; patients with low-LMR and low serum albumin level were given a score of 2. There were significant differences in the overall survival among the three SIS groups and the SIS was an independent prognostic factor for the overall survival. Although the SIS was significantly associated with the overall survival rate even when using the original cut-off values, the SIS according to the new cut-off values had a more accurate prognostic value. The present study determined that the SIS was a useful biomarker for predicting the survival outcomes in patients with unresectable mCRC, although the optimum cut-off value of the SIS according to the patients' background needs to be examined in further studies.

A classification prognostic score to predict OS in stage IV well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors

PubMed Central

Pusceddu, Sara; Barretta, Francesco; Trama, Annalisa; Botta, Laura; Milione, Massimo; Buzzoni, Roberto; De Braud, Filippo; Mazzaferro, Vincenzo; Pastorino, Ugo; Seregni, Ettore; Mariani, Luigi; Gatta, Gemma; Di Bartolomeo, Maria; Femia, Daniela; Prinzi, Natalie; Coppa, Jorgelina; Panzuto, Francesco; Antonuzzo, Lorenzo; Bajetta, Emilio; Brizzi, Maria Pia; Campana, Davide; Catena, Laura; Comber, Harry; Dwane, Fiona; Fazio, Nicola; Faggiano, Antongiulio; Giuffrida, Dario; Henau, Kris; Ibrahim, Toni; Marconcini, Riccardo; Massironi, Sara; Žakelj, Maja Primic; Spada, Francesca; Tafuto, Salvatore; Van Eycken, Elizabeth; Van der Zwan, Jan Maaten; Žagar, Tina; Giacomelli, Luca; Miceli, Rosalba; Aroldi, Francesca; Bongiovanni, Alberto; Berardi, Rossana; Brighi, Nicole; Cingarlini, Sara; Cauchi, Carolina; Cavalcoli, Federica; Carnaghi, Carlo; Corti, Francesca; Duro, Marilina; Davì, Maria Vittoria; De Divitiis, Chiara; Ermacora, Paola; La Salvia, Anna; Luppi, Gabriele; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Nichetti, Federico; Raimondi, Alessandra; Perfetti, Vittorio; Razzore, Paola; Rinzivillo, Maria; Siesling, Sabine; Torchio, Martina; Van Dijk, Boukje; Visser, Otto; Vernieri, Claudio

2018-01-01

No validated prognostic tool is available for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors (WDNETs). This study, conducted in three independent cohorts of patients from five different European countries, aimed to develop and validate a classification prognostic score for OS in patients with stage IV WDNETs. We retrospectively collected data on 1387 patients: (i) patients treated at the Istituto Nazionale Tumori (Milan, Italy; n = 515); (ii) European cohort of rare NET patients included in the European RARECAREnet database (n = 457); (iii) Italian multicentric cohort of pancreatic NET (pNETs) patients treated at 24 Italian institutions (n = 415). The score was developed using data from patients included in cohort (i) (training set); external validation was performed by applying the score to the data of the two independent cohorts (ii) and (iii) evaluating both calibration and discriminative ability (Harrell C statistic). We used data on age, primary tumor site, metastasis (synchronous vs metachronous), Ki-67, functional status and primary surgery to build the score, which was developed for classifying patients into three groups with differential 10-year OS: (I) favorable risk group: 10-year OS ≥70%; (II) intermediate risk group: 30% ≤ 10-year OS < 70%; (III) poor risk group: 10-year OS <30%. The Harrell C statistic was 0.661 in the training set, and 0.626 and 0.601 in the RARECAREnet and Italian multicentric validation sets, respectively. In conclusion, based on the analysis of three ‘field-practice’ cohorts collected in different settings, we defined and validated a prognostic score to classify patients into three groups with different long-term prognoses. PMID:29559553

Increased Prognostic Value of Query Amyloid Late Enhancement Score in Light-Chain Cardiac Amyloidosis.

PubMed

Wan, Ke; Sun, Jiayu; Han, Yuchi; Liu, Hong; Yang, Dan; Li, Weihao; Wang, Jie; Cheng, Wei; Zhang, Qing; Zeng, Zhi; Chen, Yucheng

2018-02-23

Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) pattern is a powerful imaging biomarker for prognosis of cardiac amyloidosis. It is unknown if the query amyloid late enhancement (QALE) score in light-chain (AL) amyloidosis could provide increased prognostic value compared with LGE pattern.Methods and Results:Seventy-eight consecutive patients with AL amyloidosis underwent contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging. Patients with cardiac involvement were grouped by LGE pattern and analyzed using QALE score. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify the optimal cut-off for QALE score in predicting all-cause mortality. Survival of these patients was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression. During a median follow-up of 34 months, 53 of 78 patients died. The optimal cut-off for QALE score to predict mortality at 12-month follow-up was 9.0. On multivariate Cox analysis, QALE score ≥9 (HR, 5.997; 95% CI: 2.665-13.497; P<0.001) and log N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (HR, 1.525; 95% CI: 1.112-2.092; P=0.009) were the only 2 independent predictors of all-cause mortality. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with subendocardial LGE can be further risk stratified using QALE score ≥9. The QALE scoring system provides powerful independent prognostic value in AL cardiac amyloidosis. QALE score ≥9 has added value to differentiate prognosis in AL amyloidosis patients with a subendocardial LGE pattern.

[Can Glasgow-Blatchford Score and Pre-endoscopic Rockall Score Predict the Occurrence of Hypotension in Initially Normotensive Patients with Non-variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding?].

PubMed

Kim, June Sung; Ko, Byuk Sung; Son, Chang Hwan; Ahn, Shin; Seo, Dong Woo; Lee, Yoon Seon; Lee, Jae Ho; Oh, Bum Jin; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Kim, Won Young

2016-01-25

The aim of this study was to identify the ability of Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall score (pre-E RS) to predict the occurrence of hypotension in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding who are initially normotensive at emergency department. Retrospective observational study was conducted at Asan Medical Center emergency department (ED) in patients who presented with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2013. Study population was divided according to the development of hypotension, and demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory findings were compared. GBS and pre-E RS were estimated to predict the occurrence of hypotension. A total of 747 patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were included during the study period, and 120 (16.1%) patients developed hypotension within 24 hours after ED admission. The median values GBS and pre-E RS were statistically different according to the occurrence of hypotension (8.0 vs. 10.0, 2.0 vs. 3.0, respectively; p<0.001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of hypotension development, the area under the curve of GBS and pre-E RS were 66% and 64%, respectively. The sensitivity and the specificity of GBS using optimal cut-off value were 81% and 46%, respectively, while those based on the pre-E RS were 74% and 46%, respectively. GBS and pre-E RS were both not sufficient for predicting the occurrence of hypotension in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Development of other scoring systems are needed.

A new Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System for refractory/relapsed adult acute myelogeneous leukaemia patients: a GOELAMS study.

PubMed

Chevallier, P; Labopin, M; Turlure, P; Prebet, T; Pigneux, A; Hunault, M; Filanovsky, K; Cornillet-Lefebvre, P; Luquet, I; Lode, L; Richebourg, S; Blanchet, O; Gachard, N; Vey, N; Ifrah, N; Milpied, N; Harousseau, J-L; Bene, M-C; Mohty, M; Delaunay, J

2011-06-01

A simplified prognostic score is presented based on the multivariate analysis of 138 refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients (median age 55 years, range: 19-70) receiving a combination of intensive chemotherapy+Gemtuzumab as salvage regimen. Overall, 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were 29±4% and 36±4%, respectively. Disease status (relapse <12 months, including refractory patients), FLT3-ITD-positive status and high-risk cytogenetics were the three strongest independent adverse prognostic factors for OS and EFS in this series. We then defined three subgroups with striking different outcomes at 2 years: no adverse factor (favourable, N=36): OS 58%, EFS 45%; one adverse factor (intermediate, N=54): OS 37%, EFS 31%; two or three adverse factors (poor, N=43): OS 12%, EFS 12% (P<10(-4), P=0.001). This new simplified Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System was then validated on an independent cohort of 111 refractory/relapsed AML patients. This new simplified prognostic score, using three clinical and biological parameters routinely applied, allow to discriminate around two third of the patients who should benefit from a salvage intensive regimen in the setting of refractory/relapsed AML patients. The other one third of the patients should receive investigational therapy.

A new extranodal scoring system based on the prognostically relevant extranodal sites in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified treated with chemoimmunotherapy.

PubMed

Hwang, Hee Sang; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Suh, Cheolwon; Huh, Jooryung

2016-08-01

Extranodal involvement is a well-known prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL). Nevertheless, the prognostic impact of the extranodal scoring system included in the conventional international prognostic index (IPI) has been questioned in an era where rituximab treatment has become widespread. We investigated the prognostic impacts of individual sites of extranodal involvement in 761 patients with DLBCL who received rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy. Subsequently, we established a new extranodal scoring system based on extranodal sites, showing significant prognostic correlation, and compared this system with conventional scoring systems, such as the IPI and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI (NCCN-IPI). An internal validation procedure, using bootstrapped samples, was also performed for both univariate and multivariate models. Using multivariate analysis with a backward variable selection, we found nine extranodal sites (the liver, lung, spleen, central nervous system, bone marrow, kidney, skin, adrenal glands, and peritoneum) that remained significant for use in the final model. Our newly established extranodal scoring system, based on these sites, was better correlated with patient survival than standard scoring systems, such as the IPI and the NCCN-IPI. Internal validation by bootstrapping demonstrated an improvement in model performance of our modified extranodal scoring system. Our new extranodal scoring system, based on the prognostically relevant sites, may improve the performance of conventional prognostic models of DLBCL in the rituximab era and warrants further external validation using large study populations.

A case report on near manual strangulation and glasgow coma scale.

PubMed

Meel Banwari, L

2015-09-01

Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is considered as a gold standard in estimating the prognosis of the comatose patient. The management of the patient relies heavily on this scale. The mechanism of injury must also be included in scoring of the GCS. Survival from strangulation is uncommon, and if it occurs, it is often associated with various complications such as neurological consequences. To highlight a poor correlation with low GCS and ultimate outcome in cases of manual strangulation. This is a case report of young female adult who was raped and manually strangulated by a colleague during a training course for traditional healers. She was admitted with very low (3/15) Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and presumed to have a poor prognosis. She was rigorously ventilated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and was discharged from hospital after a week without any complications. The neck and genital injuries are described. This report discusses. A low Glasgow Coma Scale is not a predictive of poor prognosis in cases of manual strangulation.

Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

PubMed

Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

2017-12-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

One-Year Mortality in Older Patients with Cancer: Development and External Validation of an MNA-Based Prognostic Score.

PubMed

Bourdel-Marchasson, Isabelle; Diallo, Abou; Bellera, Carine; Blanc-Bisson, Christelle; Durrieu, Jessica; Germain, Christine; Mathoulin-Pélissier, Simone; Soubeyran, Pierre; Rainfray, Muriel; Fonck, Mariane; Doussau, Adelaïde

2016-01-01

The MNA (Mini Nutritional Assessment) is known as a prognosis factor in older population. We analyzed the prognostic value for one-year mortality of MNA items in older patients with cancer treated with chemotherapy as the basis of a simplified prognostic score. The prospective derivation cohort included 606 patients older than 70 years with an indication of chemotherapy for cancers. The endpoint to predict was one-year mortality. The 18 items of the Full MNA, age, gender, weight loss, cancer origin, TNM, performance status and lymphocyte count were considered to construct the prognostic model. MNA items were analyzed with a backward step-by-step multivariate logistic regression and other items were added in a forward step-by-step regression. External validation was performed on an independent cohort of 229 patients. At one year 266 deaths had occurred. Decreased dietary intake (p = 0.0002), decreased protein-rich food intake (p = 0.025), 3 or more prescribed drugs (p = 0.023), calf circumference <31 cm (p = 0.0002), tumor origin (p<0.0001), metastatic status (p = 0.0007) and lymphocyte count <1500/mm3 (0.029) were found to be associated with 1-year mortality in the final model and were used to construct a prognostic score. The area under curve (AUC) of the score was 0.793, which was higher than the Full MNA AUC (0.706). The AUC of the score in validation cohort (229 subjects, 137 deaths) was 0.698. Key predictors of one-year mortality included cancer cachexia clinical features, comorbidities, the origin and the advanced status of the tumor. The prognostic value of this model combining a subset of MNA items and cancer related items was better than the full MNA, thus providing a simple score to predict 1-year mortality in older patients with an indication of chemotherapy.

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 2. Short-term prognostic scores for acute exacerbations].

PubMed

Junod, Alain F

2014-01-22

The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or COPD is a slowly progressive disease whose course is frequently the subject of acute episodes, of variable severity, although, in general, reversible, called acute exacerbations. In the past five years (between 2008 and 2013), seven prognostic scores have been published to try to assess the short-term risk of these acute exacerbations. Their components and characteristics are analysed and commented upon. An Internet program with a detailed compilation of the main features of these scores (www.medhyg.ch/scoredoc) supplements this review.

The Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography Prognostic Score for Basilar Artery Occlusion.

PubMed

Alemseged, Fana; Shah, Darshan G; Diomedi, Marina; Sallustio, Fabrizio; Bivard, Andrew; Sharma, Gagan; Mitchell, Peter J; Dowling, Richard J; Bush, Steven; Yan, Bernard; Caltagirone, Carlo; Floris, Roberto; Parsons, Mark W; Levi, Christopher R; Davis, Stephen M; Campbell, Bruce C V

2017-03-01

Basilar artery occlusion is associated with high risk of disability and mortality. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a new radiological score: the Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography (BATMAN) score. A retrospective analysis of consecutive stroke patients with basilar artery occlusion diagnosed on computed tomographic angiography was performed. BATMAN score is a 10-point computed tomographic angiography-based grading system which incorporates thrombus burden and the presence of collaterals. Reliability was assessed with intraclass coefficient correlation. Good outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score of ≤3 at 3 months and successful reperfusion as thrombolysis in cerebral infarction 2b-3. BATMAN score was externally validated and compared with the Posterior Circulation Collateral score. The derivation cohort included 83 patients with 41 in the validation cohort. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, BATMAN score had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-0.9) in derivation cohort and an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.6-0.9) in validation cohort. In logistic regression adjusted for age and clinical severity, BATMAN score of <7 was associated with poor outcome in derivation cohort (odds ratio, 5.5; 95% CI, 1.4-21; P =0.01), in validation cohort (odds ratio, 6.9; 95% CI, 1.4-33; P =0.01), and in endovascular patients, after adjustment for recanalization and time to treatment (odds ratio, 4.8; 95% CI, 1.2-18; P =0.01). BATMAN score of <7 was not associated with recanalization. Interrater agreement was substantial (intraclass coefficient correlation, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.8-0.9). BATMAN score had greater accuracy compared with Posterior Circulation Collateral score ( P =0.04). The addition of collateral quality to clot burden in BATMAN score seems to improve prognostic accuracy in basilar artery occlusion patients. © 2017

Traumatic axonal injury: the prognostic value of lesion load in corpus callosum, brain stem, and thalamus in different magnetic resonance imaging sequences.

PubMed

Moen, Kent G; Brezova, Veronika; Skandsen, Toril; Håberg, Asta K; Folvik, Mari; Vik, Anne

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic value of visible traumatic axonal injury (TAI) loads in different MRI sequences from the early phase after adjusting for established prognostic factors. Likewise, we sought to explore the prognostic role of early apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in normal-appearing corpus callosum. In this prospective study, 128 patients (mean age, 33.9 years; range, 11-69) with moderate (n = 64) and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) were examined with MRI at a median of 8 days (range, 0-28) postinjury. TAI lesions in fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and T2*-weighted gradient echo (T2*GRE) sequences were counted and FLAIR lesion volumes estimated. In patients and 47 healthy controls, mean ADC values were computed in 10 regions of interests in the normal-appearing corpus callosum. Outcome measure was the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) at 12 months. In patients with severe TBI, number of DWI lesions and volume of FLAIR lesions in the corpus callosum, brain stem, and thalamus predicted outcome in analyses with adjustment for age, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and pupillary dilation (odds ratio, 1.3-6.9; p = <0.001-0.017). The addition of Rotterdam CT score and DWI lesions in the corpus callosum yielded the highest R2 (0.24), compared to all other MRI variables, including brain stem lesions. For patients with moderate TBI only the number of cortical contusions (p = 0.089) and Rotterdam CT score (p = 0.065) tended to predict outcome. Numbers of T2*GRE lesions did not affect outcome. Mean ADC values in the normal-appearing corpus callosum did not differ from controls. In conclusion, the loads of visible TAI lesions in the corpus callosum, brain stem, and thalamus in DWI and FLAIR were independent prognostic factors in patients with severe TBI. DWI lesions in the corpus callosum were the most important predictive MRI variable. Interestingly, number of cortical

Serum lactate dehydrogenase with a systemic inflammation score is useful for predicting response and survival in patients with newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Jung, Sung-Hoon; Yang, Deok-Hwan; Ahn, Jae-Sook; Kim, Yeo-Kyeoung; Kim, Hyeoung-Joon; Lee, Je-Jung

2015-01-01

We evaluated the relationship between serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level with systemic inflammation score and survival in 213 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) receiving R-CHOP chemotherapy. The patients were classified into 3 groups based on LDH with the Glasgow Prognostic Score (L-GPS). A score of 2 was assigned to patients with elevated C-reactive protein, hypoalbuminemia and elevated LDH, a score of 1 to those with one or two abnormalities and a score of 0 to those with no abnormality. In multivariate analysis, independent poor prognostic factors for progression-free survival were L-GPS 2 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.415, p = 0.001], Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) ≥2 (HR 3.504, p = 0.001) and bulky lesion (HR 2.030, p = 0.039). Independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival were L-GPS 2 (HR 5.898, p = 0.001) and ECOG PS ≥2 (HR 3.525, p = 0.001). The overall response rate for the R-CHOP chemotherapy decreased according to the L-GPS; it was 96.7% at L-GPS 0, 87% at L-GPS 1 and 75% at L-GPS 2 (p = 0.009). L-GPS based on systemic inflammatory indicators may be a useful clinical prognostic indicator for survival, and predicts the response for R-CHOP chemotherapy in patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prognostic severity scores for patients with COPD exacerbations attending emergency departments.

PubMed

Quintana, J M; Esteban, C; Unzurrunzaga, A; Garcia-Gutierrez, S; Gonzalez, N; Lafuente, I; Bare, M; de Larrea, N Fernandez; Vidal, S

2014-12-01

Reported predictors of the adverse evolution of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations (eCOPD) are various and inconsistent in the bibliography. To develop clinical prediction rules for short-term outcomes in eCOPD patients attending an emergency department (ED). Prospective cohort study of patients with an eCOPD. Short-term outcomes were admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), admission to an intermediate respiratory care unit (IRCU) and death in these groups. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed for each of the outcomes. Predictors of ICU or IRCU admission were use of long-term home oxygen therapy (LT-HOT) or non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV), elevated PCO2 and decreased pH upon ED arrival (area under the curve [AUC] 0.87 in the derivation sample; 0.89 in the validation sample). Among those admitted to an ICU or IRCU, predictors of death were increased age, use at home of LT-HOT or NIMV, use of inspiratory accessory muscles upon ED arrival and altered Glasgow Coma Scale (<15 points) (AUC 0.78). Three clinical predictors available in the ED can be used to create a simple score to predict the need for intensive treatment among eCOPD patients. Such a score can be a tool for clinical practice.

Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

PubMed

Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Faouzi, Mohamed; Vanacker, Peter; Wintermark, Max; Michel, Patrik

2014-10-01

The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score>2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: I. Long-term prognostic scores].

PubMed

Junod, Alain F

2013-10-16

The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or COPD will probably be in the year 2020 the third cause of death in the world. It appears therefore appropriate to try to make available tools capable of assessing the prognosis of patients with this disease. In the first part of this series of two papers, the question of the prognosis of stable COPD over several years is addressed. Eight prognostic scores are discussed, all of them published between 2004 and 2012. Their components and characteristics are analysed and commented upon, with, in particular, emphasis on their discriminating power. An Internet program (www.medhyg. ch/scoredoc) supplements this review.

The prognostic reliability of intracranial pressure monitoring and MRI data in severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Woischneck, Dieter; Kapapa, Thomas

2017-02-01

The predictive quality of intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring has for many years been a matter of debate. We correlate ICP data comparing MRI data with the outcome after severe traumatic brain injury to evaluate their prognostic potency. This study compares the results of ICP monitoring, MRI, coma duration and outcome according to Glasgow Outcome Scale obtained in 32 patients having suffered severe TBI. Level of significance was set to p≤0.05 in statistical tests. The MRI results were closely correlated with coma duration and Glasgow Outcome Scale, but the ICP measurements were not. With the exception of severe, bipontine lesions, there is no other region of the brain in which increased evidence of traumatogenic lesions emerges as the intracranial pressure rises. Just bipontine lesions that proof to be infaust correlate with elevated ICP values. ICP monitoring does not allow individual prognostic conclusions to be made. Implantation of an intracranial pressure sensor alone for making a prognostic estimate is not advisable. The use of intracranial pressure measurements in the retrospective appraisal of disease progress is highly problematic. However, MRI diagnostic in patients with severe TBI improves prognostic potency of clinical parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

2016-01-01

Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P < 0.01). A clinically useful classification tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

Retrospective evaluation of prognostic score performances in cirrhotic patients admitted to an intermediate care unit.

PubMed

Dupont, Benoît; Delvincourt, Maxime; Koné, Mamadou; du Cheyron, Damien; Ollivier-Hourmand, Isabelle; Piquet, Marie-Astrid; Terzi, Nicolas; Dao, Thông

2015-08-01

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients in the Intensive Care Unit requires the development of predictive tools for mortality. We aimed to evaluate the ability of different prognostic scores to predict hospital mortality in these patients. A single-centre retrospective analysis was conducted of 281 hospital stays of cirrhotic patients at an Intermediate Care Unit between June 2009 and December 2010. The performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SOFA), the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II or III, Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na and the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLF) in predicting hospital mortality were compared. Mean age was 58.2±12.1 years; 77% were male. The main cause of admission was acute gastrointestinal bleeding (47%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 25.3%. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated that SOFA (0.82) MELD-Na (0.82) or MELD (0.81) scores at admission predicted in-hospital mortality better than Child-Pugh (0.76), SAPS II (0.77), SAPS III (0.75) or CLIF-C ACLF (0.75). We then developed the cirrhosis prognostic score (Ci-Pro), which performed better (0.89) than SOFA. SOFA, MELD and especially the Ci-Pro score show the best performance in predicting hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intermediate Care Unit. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grave prognosis on spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: GP on STAGE score.

PubMed

Poungvarin, Niphon; Suwanwela, Nijasri C; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Wong, Lawrence K S; Navarro, Jose C; Bitanga, Ester; Yoon, Byung Woo; Chang, Hui M; Alam, Sardar M

2006-11-01

Spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) is more common in Asia than in western countries, and has a high mortality rate. A simple prognostic score for predicting grave prognosis of ICH is lacking. Our objective was to develop a simple and reliable score for most physicians. ICH patients from seven Asian countries were enrolled between May 2000 and April 2002 for a prospective study. Clinical features such as headache and vomiting, vascular risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), body temperature (BT), blood pressure on arrival, location and size of haematoma, intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH), hydrocephalus, need for surgical treatment, medical treatment, length of hospital stay and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using a modified Rankin scale (MRS). Grave prognosis (defined as MRS of 5-6) was judged on the discharge date. 995 patients, mean age 59.5 +/- 14.3 years were analyzed, after exclusion of incomplete data in 87 patients. 402 patients (40.4%) were in the grave prognosis group (MRS 5-6). Univariable analysis and then multivariable analysis showed only four statistically significant predictors for grave outcome of ICH. They were fever (BT > or = 37.8 degrees c), low GCS, large haematoma and IVH. The grave prognosis on spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (GP on STAGE) score was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for ICH outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (82%) and specificity (82%). Furthermore, it can be administered by most general practitioners. Validation in other populations is now required.

Prognostic value of FOUR and GCS scores in determining mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Saika, Amrit; Bansal, Sonia; Philip, Mariamma; Devi, Bhagavatula Indira; Shukla, Dhaval P

2015-09-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is considered the gold standard for assessment of unconsciousness in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) against which other scales are compared. To overcome the disadvantages of GCS, the Full Outline Of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score was proposed. We aimed to compare the predictability of FOUR score and GCS for early mortality, after moderate and severe TBI. This is a prospective observational study of patients with moderate and severe TBI. Both FOUR and GCS scores were determined at admission. The primary outcome was mortality at the end of 2 weeks of injury. A total of 138 (117 males) patients were included in the study. Out of these, 17 (12.3 %) patients died within 2 weeks of injury. The mean GCS and FOUR scores were 9.5 (range, 3-13) and 11 (0-16), respectively. The total GCS and FOUR scores were significantly lower in patients who did not survive. At a cut-off score of 7 for FOUR score, the AUC was 0.97, with sensitivity of 97.5 and specificity of 88.2 % (p < 0.0001). For GCS score, AUC was 0.95, with sensitivity of 98.3 % and specificity of 82.4 % with cut-off score of 6 (p < 0.0001). The correlation coefficient was 0.753 (p < 0.001) between the GCS and FOUR scores. The predictive value of the FOUR score on admission of patients with TBI is no better than the GCS score.

Vitamin D status and 3-month Glasgow Outcome Scale scores in patients in neurocritical care: prospective analysis of 497 patients.

PubMed

Guan, Jian; Karsy, Michael; Brock, Andrea A; Eli, Ilyas M; Manton, Gabrielle M; Ledyard, Holly K; Hawryluk, Gregory W J; Park, Min S

2018-06-01

OBJECTIVE Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with a variety of negative outcomes in critically ill patients, but little focused study on the effects of hypovitaminosis D has been performed in the neurocritical care population. In this study, the authors examined the effect of vitamin D deficiency on 3-month outcomes after discharge from a neurocritical care unit (NCCU). METHODS The authors prospectively analyzed 25-hydroxy vitamin D levels in patients admitted to the NCCU of a quaternary care center over a 6-month period. Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) scores were used to evaluate their 3-month outcome, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the effects of vitamin D deficiency. RESULTS Four hundred ninety-seven patients met the inclusion criteria. In the binomial logistic regression model, patients without vitamin D deficiency (> 20 ng/dl) were significantly more likely to have a 3-month GOS score of 4 or 5 than those who were vitamin D deficient (OR 1.768 [95% CI 1.095-2.852]). Patients with a higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) (OR 0.925 [95% CI 0.910-0.940]) and those admitted for stroke (OR 0.409 [95% CI 0.209-0.803]) or those with an "other" diagnosis (OR 0.409 [95% CI 0.217-0.772]) were significantly more likely to have a 3-month GOS score of 3 or less. CONCLUSIONS Vitamin D deficiency is associated with worse 3-month postdischarge GOS scores in patients admitted to an NCCU. Additional study is needed to determine the role of vitamin D supplementation in the NCCU population.

A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing.

PubMed

Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, Wade H

2016-01-01

Arm exercise stress testing may be an equivalent or better predictor of mortality outcome than pharmacological stress imaging for the ≥50% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals. In this retrospective observational cohort study, arm exercise ECG stress tests were performed in 443 consecutive veterans aged 64.1 (11.1) years. (mean (SD)) between 1997 and 2002. From multivariate Cox models, arm exercise scores were developed for prediction of 5-year and 12-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 5-year cardiovascular mortality or myocardial infarction (MI). Arm exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs), 1 min heart rate recovery (HRR) and ST segment depression ≥1 mm were the stress test variables independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by step-wise Cox analysis (all p<0.01). A score based on the relation HRR (bpm)+7.3×METs-10.5×ST depression (0=no; 1=yes) prognosticated 5-year cardiovascular mortality with a C-statistic of 0.81 before and 0.88 after adjustment for significant demographic and clinical covariates. Arm exercise scores for the other outcome end points yielded C-statistic values of 0.77-0.79 before and 0.82-0.86 after adjustment for significant covariates versus 0.64-0.72 for best fit pharmacological myocardial perfusion imaging models in a cohort of 1730 veterans who were evaluated over the same time period. Arm exercise scores, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, have good power for prediction of mortality or MI in patients who cannot perform leg exercise.

Prognostic value of intraventricular bleeding in spontaneous intraparenchymal cerebral hemorrhage of small volume: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Fortes Lima, Telmo Tiburcio; Prandini, Mirto Nelso; Gallo, Pasquale; Cavalheiro, Sérgio

2012-04-01

The literature is controversial on whether intraventricular bleeding has a negative impact on the prognosis of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Nevertheless, an association between intraventricular bleeding and spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage volumes has been consistently reported. To evaluate the prognostic value of intraventricular bleeding in deep intraparenchymal hypertensive spontaneous hemorrhage with a bleeding volume <30 cm(3). Of the 320 patients initially evaluated, 33 met the inclusion criteria and were enrolled in this prospective study. The volume of intraparenchymal hemorrhage was calculated by brain computed tomography (CT) image analysis, and the volume of intraventricular bleeding was calculated by the LeRoux scale. Clinical data, including neurological complications, were collected daily during hospitalization. Neurological outcome was evaluated 30 days after the event by using the Glasgow outcome scale. Patients were assigned to 1 of 3 groups according to intraventricular bleeding: Control, no intraventricular bleeding; LR 1, intraventricular bleeding with LeRoux scale scores of 1 to 8; or LR 2, intraventricular bleeding with LeRoux scale scores >8. There were no significant differences among groups concerning age, mean blood pressure, and time from onset to brain CT scan. Patients with greater intraventricular bleeding presented lower initial Glasgow coma scale scores, increased ventricular index and width of temporal horns, increased number of clinical and neurological complications, and longer hospitalization. Furthermore, their relative risk for unfavorable clinical outcome was 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.25-2.49). Intraventricular bleeding with a LeRoux scale score >8 appears to have a negative effect on deep spontaneous intraparenchymal cerebral hemorrhage of small volume.

Comparison of the prognostic value of pretreatment measurements of systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing curative resection of clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Lucca, Ilaria; de Martino, Michela; Hofbauer, Sebastian L; Zamani, Nura; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Klatte, Tobias

2015-12-01

Pretreatment measurements of systemic inflammatory response, including the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) have been recognized as prognostic factors in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (CCRCC), but there is at present no study that compared these markers. We evaluated the pretreatment GPS, NLR, MLR, PLR and PNI in 430 patients, who underwent surgery for clinically localized CCRCC (pT1-3N0M0). Associations with disease-free survival were assessed with Cox models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index, and a decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. On multivariable analyses, all measures of systemic inflammatory response were significant prognostic factors. The increase in discrimination compared with the stage, size, grade and necrosis (SSIGN) score alone was 5.8 % for the GPS, 1.1-1.4 % for the NLR, 2.9-3.4 % for the MLR, 2.0-3.3 % for the PLR and 1.4-3.0 % for the PNI. On the simultaneous multivariable analysis of all candidate measures, the final multivariable model contained the SSIGN score (HR 1.40, P < 0.001), the GPS (HR 2.32, P < 0.001) and the MLR (HR 5.78, P = 0.003) as significant variables. Adding both the GPS and the MLR increased the discrimination of the SSIGN score by 6.2 % and improved the clinical net benefit. In patients with clinically localized CCRCC, the GPS and the MLR appear to be the most relevant prognostic measures of systemic inflammatory response. They may be used as an adjunct for patient counseling, tailoring management and clinical trial design.

Prognostic Utility of Cell Cycle Progression Score in Men With Prostate Cancer After Primary External Beam Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freedland, Stephen J., E-mail: steve.freedland@duke.edu; Department of Surgery; Department of Pathology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina

Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic utility of the cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as their primary curative therapy. Methods and Materials: The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-upmore » for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results: Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (P=.0017). The hazard ratio for BCR was 2.55 for 1-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis that included Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the hazard ratio for CCP changed only marginally and remained significant (P=.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (P=.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions: Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicted outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy.« less

Performance of new thresholds of the Glasgow Blatchford score in managing patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Laursen, Stig B; Dalton, Harry R; Murray, Iain A; Michell, Nick; Johnston, Matt R; Schultz, Michael; Hansen, Jane M; Schaffalitzky de Muckadell, Ove B; Blatchford, Oliver; Stanley, Adrian J

2015-01-01

Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is a common cause of hospital admission. The Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) is an accurate determinant of patients' risk for hospital-based intervention or death. Patients with a GBS of 0 are at low risk for poor outcome and could be managed as outpatients. Some investigators therefore have proposed extending the definition of low-risk patients by using a higher GBS cut-off value, possibly with an age adjustment. We compared 3 thresholds of the GBS and 2 age-adjusted modifications to identify the optimal cut-off value or modification. We performed an observational study of 2305 consecutive patients presenting with UGIH at 4 centers (Scotland, England, Denmark, and New Zealand). The performance of each threshold and modification was evaluated based on sensitivity and specificity analyses, the proportion of low-risk patients identified, and outcomes of patients classified as low risk. There were differences in age (P = .0001), need for intervention (P < .0001), mortality (P < .015), and GBS (P = .0001) among sites. All systems identified low-risk patients with high levels of sensitivity (>97%). The GBS at cut-off values of ≤1 and ≤2, and both modifications, identified low-risk patients with higher levels of specificity (40%-49%) than the GBS with a cut-off value of 0 (22% specificity; P < .001). The GBS at a cut-off value of ≤2 had the highest specificity, but 3% of patients classified as low-risk patients had adverse outcomes. All GBS cut-off values, and score modifications, had low levels of specificity when tested in New Zealand (2.5%-11%). A GBS cut-off value of ≤1 and both GBS modifications identify almost twice as many low-risk patients with UGIH as a GBS at a cut-off value of 0. Implementing a protocol for outpatient management, based on one of these scores, could reduce hospital admissions by 15% to 20%. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PROgnosticating COeliac patieNts SUrvivaL: the PROCONSUL score.

PubMed

Biagi, Federico; Schiepatti, Annalisa; Malamut, Georgia; Marchese, Alessandra; Cellier, Christophe; Bakker, Sjoerd F; Mulder, Chris J J; Volta, Umberto; Zingone, Fabiana; Ciacci, Carolina; D'Odorico, Anna; Andrealli, Alida; Astegiano, Marco; Klersy, Catherine; Corazza, Gino R

2014-01-01

It has been shown that mortality rates of coeliac patients correlate with age at diagnosis of coeliac disease, diagnostic delay for coeliac disease, pattern of clinical presentation and HLA typing. Our aim was to create a tool that identifies coeliac patients at higher risk of developing complications. To identify predictors of complications in patients with coeliac disease, we organised an observational multicenter case-control study based on a retrospective collection of clinical data. Clinical data from 116 cases (patients with complicated coeliac disease) and 181 controls (coeliac patients without any complications) were collected from seven European centres. For each case, one or two controls, matched to cases according to the year of assessment, gender and age, were selected. Diagnostic delay, pattern of clinical presentation, HLA typing and age at diagnosis were used as predictors. Differences between cases and controls were detected for diagnostic delay and classical presentation. Conditional logistic models based on these statistically different predictors allowed the development of a score system. Tertiles analysis showed a relationship between score and risk of developing complications. A score that shows the risk of a newly diagnosed coeliac patient developing complications was devised for the first time. This will make it possible to set up the follow-up of coeliac patients with great benefits not only for their health but also for management of economic resources. We think that our results are very encouraging and represent the first attempt to build a prognostic score for coeliac patients.

Prognostic accuracy of five simple scales in childhood bacterial meningitis.

PubMed

Pelkonen, Tuula; Roine, Irmeli; Monteiro, Lurdes; Cruzeiro, Manuel Leite; Pitkäranta, Anne; Kataja, Matti; Peltola, Heikki

2012-08-01

In childhood acute bacterial meningitis, the level of consciousness, measured with the Glasgow coma scale (GCS) or the Blantyre coma scale (BCS), is the most important predictor of outcome. The Herson-Todd scale (HTS) was developed for Haemophilus influenzae meningitis. Our objective was to identify prognostic factors, to form a simple scale, and to compare the predictive accuracy of these scales. Seven hundred and twenty-three children with bacterial meningitis in Luanda were scored by GCS, BCS, and HTS. The simple Luanda scale (SLS), based on our entire database, comprised domestic electricity, days of illness, convulsions, consciousness, and dyspnoea at presentation. The Bayesian Luanda scale (BLS) added blood glucose concentration. The accuracy of the 5 scales was determined for 491 children without an underlying condition, against the outcomes of death, severe neurological sequelae or death, or a poor outcome (severe neurological sequelae, death, or deafness), at hospital discharge. The highest accuracy was achieved with the BLS, whose area under the curve (AUC) for death was 0.83, for severe neurological sequelae or death was 0.84, and for poor outcome was 0.82. Overall, the AUCs for SLS were ≥0.79, for GCS were ≥0.76, for BCS were ≥0.74, and for HTS were ≥0.68. Adding laboratory parameters to a simple scoring system, such as the SLS, improves the prognostic accuracy only little in bacterial meningitis.

Insecticides against headlice in Glasgow.

PubMed

Lindsay, S W; Peock, S

1993-08-01

A postal questionnaire for describing current practices of insecticide usage for the prevention and treatment of pediculosis was sent to 53 pharmacists in Glasgow. 91% returned completed questionnaires. Between 19,000 to 36,000 bottles of insecticide against headlice were bought by the public in Glasgow in 1991. Most of these were sold in small volumes (less than 100 ml) and sales were highest during the autumn. Although pharmacists sold a range of different classes of insecticide, the most popular were those that contained malathion, the treatment for pediculosis recommended by the Health Board. Choice of treatment was probably influenced by advice given to the public by pharmacists and general practitioners. Clients preferred shampoo formulations. There was evidence that treatments were used prophylactically against headlice. However, there was little indication of large scale resistance to insecticides in the louse population. The results indicate that headlice remain a persistent problem in Glasgow, despite the public adhering to the advice of health professionals.

A combined pulmonary function and emphysema score prognostic index for staging in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

PubMed

Boutou, Afroditi K; Nair, Arjun; Douraghi-Zadeh, Dariush; Sandhu, Ranbir; Hansell, David M; Wells, Athol U; Polkey, Michael I; Hopkinson, Nicholas S

2014-01-01

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Lung computed tomography parameters, individually or as part of a composite index, may provide more prognostic information than pulmonary function tests alone. To investigate the prognostic value of emphysema score and pulmonary artery measurements compared with lung function parameters in COPD and construct a prognostic index using a contingent staging approach. Predictors of mortality were assessed in COPD outpatients whose lung computed tomography, spirometry, lung volumes and gas transfer data were collected prospectively in a clinical database. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis models with bootstrap techniques were used. 169 patients were included (59.8% male, 61.1 years old; Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second % predicted: 40.5±19.2). 20.1% died; mean survival was 115.4 months. Age (HR = 1.098, 95% Cl = 1.04-1.252) and emphysema score (HR = 1.034, 95% CI = 1.007-1.07) were the only independent predictors of mortality. Pulmonary artery dimensions were not associated with survival. An emphysema score of 55% was chosen as the optimal threshold and 30% and 65% as suboptimals. Where emphysema score was between 30% and 65% (intermediate risk) the optimal lung volume threshold, a functional residual capacity of 210% predicted, was applied. This contingent staging approach separated patients with an intermediate risk based on emphysema score alone into high risk (Functional Residual Capacity ≥210% predicted) or low risk (Functional Residual Capacity <210% predicted). This approach was more discriminatory for survival (HR = 3.123; 95% CI = 1.094-10.412) than either individual component alone. Although to an extent limited by the small sample size, this preliminary study indicates that the composite Emphysema score-Functional Residual Capacity index might provide a better separation of high and low risk patients with COPD

Comparison of the performances of copeptin and multiple biomarkers in long-term prognosis of severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Zhang, Zu-Yong; Zhang, Li-Xin; Dong, Xiao-Qiao; Yu, Wen-Hua; Du, Quan; Yang, Ding-Bo; Shen, Yong-Feng; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Qiang; Che, Zhi-Hao; Liu, Qun-Jie; Jiang, Li; Du, Yuan-Feng

2014-10-01

Enhanced blood levels of copeptin correlate with poor clinical outcomes after acute critical illness. This study aimed to compare the prognostic performances of plasma concentrations of copeptin and other biomarkers like myelin basic protein, glial fibrillary astrocyte protein, S100B, neuron-specific enolase, phosphorylated axonal neurofilament subunit H, Tau and ubiquitin carboxyl-terminal hydrolase L1 in severe traumatic brain injury. We recruited 102 healthy controls and 102 acute patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Their prognostic predictive performances of 6-month mortality and unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 1-3) were compared. Plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were statistically significantly higher in all patients than in healthy controls, in non-survivors than in survivors and in patients with unfavorable outcome than with favorable outcome. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were similar to those of Glasgow Coma Scale score for prognostic prediction. Except plasma copeptin concentration, other biomarkers concentrations in plasma did not statistically significantly improve prognostic predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale score. Copeptin levels may be a useful tool to predict long-term clinical outcomes after severe traumatic brain injury and have a potential to assist clinicians. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of transplant-specific prognostic scoring systems in haploidentical transplantation for myelodysplastic syndrome.

PubMed

Shin, Seung-Hwan; Jeon, Young-Woo; Yoon, Jae-Ho; Yahng, Seung-Ah; Lee, Sung-Eun; Cho, Byung-Sik; Eom, Ki-Seong; Lee, Seok; Kim, Hee-Je; Min, Chang-Ki; Cho, Seok-Goo; Kim, Dong-Wook; Lee, Jong-Wook; Min, Woo-Sung; Kim, Yoo-Jin

2018-05-14

We intended to identify the predictive abilities of recently published transplant-specific prognostic scoring systems in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients receiving haploidentical transplantation. The outcomes of 73 MDS patients receiving haploidentical transplantation were analyzed, according to the MTPSS, the TRI, and the CIBMTR scoring systems. The median age of patients at transplantation was 50 (range, 19-69) years. The IPSS-R cytogenetic risks of very good/good, intermediate, and poor/very poor were respectively observed in 35 (48.0%), 25 (34.2%), and 13 (17.8%) patients, including 4 (5.5%) with a monosomal karyotype. Pre-transplant treatment failure and high (≥ 3) HCT-CI were observed in 30 (41.1%) and 35 (48.0%) patients, respectively. With survivor's median follow-up of 42.3 months, the overall survival rate at 4 years of all patients was 65.5% (95% CI, 52.4-75.9). The MTPSS (100%, 77.3%, 62.5%, and 42.0% at 4 years; P = 0.02) and the TRI (100%, 79.9%, 76.0%, and 17.1% at 4 years; P < 0.01) differentiate proportionally overall survival rates according to their 4 risk groups, whereas the CIBMTR scoring system did not (P = 0.17). Our results suggest the potential ability of the MPTSS and the TRI as prognostic tools for MDS patients receiving haploidentical transplantation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PROgnosticating COeliac patieNts SUrvivaL: The PROCONSUL Score

PubMed Central

Biagi, Federico; Schiepatti, Annalisa; Malamut, Georgia; Marchese, Alessandra; Cellier, Christophe; Bakker, Sjoerd F.; Mulder, Chris J. J.; Volta, Umberto; Zingone, Fabiana; Ciacci, Carolina; D’Odorico, Anna; Andrealli, Alida; Astegiano, Marco; Klersy, Catherine; Corazza, Gino R.

2014-01-01

Introduction It has been shown that mortality rates of coeliac patients correlate with age at diagnosis of coeliac disease, diagnostic delay for coeliac disease, pattern of clinical presentation and HLA typing. Our aim was to create a tool that identifies coeliac patients at higher risk of developing complications. Methods To identify predictors of complications in patients with coeliac disease, we organised an observational multicenter case-control study based on a retrospective collection of clinical data. Clinical data from 116 cases (patients with complicated coeliac disease) and 181 controls (coeliac patients without any complications) were collected from seven European centres. For each case, one or two controls, matched to cases according to the year of assessment, gender and age, were selected. Diagnostic delay, pattern of clinical presentation, HLA typing and age at diagnosis were used as predictors. Results Differences between cases and controls were detected for diagnostic delay and classical presentation. Conditional logistic models based on these statistically different predictors allowed the development of a score system. Tertiles analysis showed a relationship between score and risk of developing complications. Discussion A score that shows the risk of a newly diagnosed coeliac patient developing complications was devised for the first time. This will make it possible to set up the follow-up of coeliac patients with great benefits not only for their health but also for management of economic resources. Conclusions We think that our results are very encouraging and represent the first attempt to build a prognostic score for coeliac patients. PMID:24392112

Nailfold capillaroscopy for day-to-day clinical use: construction of a simple scoring modality as a clinical prognostic index for digital trophic lesions.

PubMed

Smith, Vanessa; De Keyser, Filip; Pizzorni, Carmen; Van Praet, Jens T; Decuman, Saskia; Sulli, Alberto; Deschepper, Ellen; Cutolo, Maurizio

2011-01-01

Construction of a simple nailfold videocapillaroscopic (NVC) scoring modality as a prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for day-to-day clinical use. An association with a single simple (semi)-quantitatively scored NVC parameter, mean score of capillary loss, was explored in 71 consecutive patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), and reliable reduction in the number of investigated fields (F32-F16-F8-F4). The cut-off value of the prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss calculated over a reduced number of fields) for present/future digital trophic lesions was selected by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. Reduction in the number of fields for mean score of capillary loss was reliable from F32 to F8 (intraclass correlation coefficient of F16/F32: 0.97; F8/F32: 0.90). Based on ROC analysis, a prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss as calculated over F8) with a cut-off value of 1.67 is proposed. This value has a sensitivity of 72.22/70.00, specificity of 70.59/69.77, positive likelihood ratio of 2.46/2.32 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.39/0.43 for present/future digital trophic lesions. A simple prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for daily use in SSc clinics is proposed, limited to the mean score of capillary loss as calculated over eight fields (8 fingers, 1 field per finger).

The Predictive Prognostic Values of Serum TNF-α in Comparison to SOFA Score Monitoring in Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Yousef, Ayman Abd Al-Maksoud; Suliman, Ghada Abdulmomen

2013-01-01

Background. The use of inflammatory markers to follow up critically ill patients is controversial. The short time frame, the need for frequent and serial measurement of biomarkers, the presence of soluble receptor and their relatively high cost are the major drawbacks. Our study's objective is to compare the prognostic values of serum TNF-α and SOFA score monitoring in critically ill patients. Patients and Methods. A total of ninety patients were included in the study. Forty-five patients developed septic complication (sepsis group). Forty-five patients were critically ill without evidence of infectious organism (SIRS group). Patients' data include clinical status, central venous pressure, and laboratory analysis were measured. A serum level of TNF-α and SOFA score were monitored. Results. Monitoring of TNF-α revealed significant elevation of TNF-α at 3rd and 5th days of ICU admission in both groups. Monitoring of SOFA score revealed significant elevation of SOFA scores in both groups throughout their ICU stay, particularly in nonsurvivors. Positive predictive ability of SOFA score was demonstrated in critically ill patients. Conclusion. Transient significant increase in serum levels of TNF-α were detected in septic patients. Persistent elevation of SOFA score was detected in nonsurvivor septic patients. SOFA score is an independent prognostic value in critically ill patients. PMID:24175285

Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Prediction of Mortality From Clinical Presentation and Glasgow Aneurysm Score.

PubMed

Weingarten, Toby N; Thompson, Lauren T; Licatino, Lauren K; Bailey, Christopher H; Schroeder, Darrell R; Sprung, Juraj

2016-04-01

To examine association of presenting clinical acuity and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) with perioperative and 1-year mortality. Retrospective chart review. Major tertiary care facility. Patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) from 2003 through 2013. Emergency repair of rAAA. The authors reviewed outcomes after stable versus unstable presentation and by GAS. Unstable presentation included hypotension, cardiac arrest, loss of consciousness, and preoperative tracheal intubation. In total, 125 patients (40 stable) underwent repair. Perioperative mortality rates were 41% and 12% in unstable and stable patients, respectively (p<0.001). Unstable status had 88% sensitivity and 41% specificity for predicting perioperative mortality. Using logistic regression, higher GAS was associated with perioperative mortality (p<0.001). Using receiver operating characteristic analysis, the area under the curve was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.62-0.82) and cutoff GAS≥96 had 63% and 72% sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Perioperative mortality for GAS≥96 was 51% (25/49), whereas it was 20% (15/76) for GAS≤95. The estimated 1-year survival (95% CI) was 75% (62%-91%) for stable patients and 48% (38%-60%) for unstable patients. Estimated 1-year survival (95% CI) was 23% (13%-40%) for GAS≥96 and 77% (67%-87%) for GAS≤95. Clinical presentation and GAS identified patients with rAAA who were likely to have a poor surgical outcome. GAS≥96 was associated with poor long-term survival, but>20% of these patients survived 1 year. Thus, neither clinical presentation nor GAS provided reliable guidance for decisions regarding futility of surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study.

PubMed

Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B

2017-01-04

 To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  International multicentre prospective study.  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length

Prospective evaluation of the prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit.

PubMed

Levesque, Eric; Hoti, Emir; Azoulay, Daniel; Ichaï, Philippe; Habouchi, Houssam; Castaing, Denis; Samuel, Didier; Saliba, Faouzi

2012-01-01

Cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) have a poor prognosis. Identifying patients in whom ICU care will be useful can be challenging. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of prognostic scores with respect to mortality and to identify mortality risk factors. Three hundred and seventy-seven cirrhotic patients admitted to a Liver ICU between May 2005 and March 2009 were enrolled in this study. Their average age was 55.5±11.4 years. The etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (68%), virus hepatitis (18%), or mixed (5.5%). The main causes of hospitalization were gastrointestinal hemorrhage (43%), sepsis (19%), and hepatic encephalopathy (12%). ICU and in-hospital mortality rates were 34.7% and 43.0%, respectively. Infection was the major cause of death (81.6%). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that SOFA (0.92) and SAPS II (0.89) scores calculated within 24h of admission predicted ICU mortality better than the Child-Pugh score (0.79) or MELD scores with (0.79-0.82) or without the incorporation of serum sodium levels (0.82). Statistical analysis showed that the prognostic severity scores, organ replacement therapy, and infection were accurate predictors of mortality. On multivariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor therapy, bilirubin level at admission, and infection were independently associated with ICU mortality. For cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU, SAPS II, and SOFA scores predicted ICU mortality better than liver-specific scores. Mechanical ventilation or vasopressor therapy, bilirubin levels at admission and infection in patients with advanced cirrhosis were associated with a poor outcome. Copyright © 2011 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scoring System Prognostic of Outcome in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Myelodysplastic Syndrome.

PubMed

Shaffer, Brian C; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Hu, Zhen-Huan; Nishihori, Taiga; Malone, Adriana K; Valcárcel, David; Grunwald, Michael R; Bacher, Ulrike; Hamilton, Betty; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A; Saad, Ayman; Cutler, Corey; Warlick, Erica; Reshef, Ran; Wirk, Baldeep Mona; Sabloff, Mitchell; Fasan, Omotayo; Gerds, Aaron; Marks, David; Olsson, Richard; Wood, William Allen; Costa, Luciano J; Miller, Alan M; Cortes, Jorge; Daly, Andrew; Kindwall-Keller, Tamila L; Kamble, Rammurti; Rizzieri, David A; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Gale, Robert Peter; William, Basem; Litzow, Mark; Wiernik, Peter H; Liesveld, Jane; Savani, Bipin N; Vij, Ravi; Ustun, Celalettin; Copelan, Edward; Popat, Uday; Kalaycio, Matt; Maziarz, Richard; Alyea, Edwin; Sobecks, Ron; Pavletic, Steven; Tallman, Martin; Saber, Wael

2016-06-01

To develop a system prognostic of outcome in those undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo HCT) for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). We examined 2,133 patients with MDS undergoing HLA-matched (n = 1,728) or -mismatched (n = 405) allo HCT from 2000 to 2012. We used a Cox multivariable model to identify factors prognostic of mortality in a training subset (n = 1,151) of the HLA-matched cohort. A weighted score using these factors was assigned to the remaining patients undergoing HLA-matched allo HCT (validation cohort; n = 577) as well as to patients undergoing HLA-mismatched allo HCT. Blood blasts greater than 3% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.85), platelets 50 × 10(9)/L or less at transplantation (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.61), Karnofsky performance status less than 90% (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.28), comprehensive cytogenetic risk score of poor or very poor (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.80), and age 30 to 49 years (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.35) were associated with increased hazard of death and assigned 1 point in the scoring system. Monosomal karyotype (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.65 to 2.45) and age 50 years or older (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.36 to 2.83) were assigned 2 points. The 3-year overall survival after transplantation in patients with low (0 to 1 points), intermediate (2 to 3), high (4 to 5) and very high (≥ 6) scores was 71% (95% CI, 58% to 85%), 49% (95% CI, 42% to 56%), 41% (95% CI, 31% to 51%), and 25% (95% CI, 4% to 46%), respectively (P < .001). Increasing score was predictive of increased relapse (P < .001) and treatment-related mortality (P < .001) in the HLA-matched set and relapse (P < .001) in the HLA-mismatched cohort. The proposed system is prognostic of outcome in patients undergoing HLA-matched and -mismatched allo HCT for MDS. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Scoring System Prognostic of Outcome in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Myelodysplastic Syndrome

PubMed Central

Ahn, Kwang Woo; Hu, Zhen-Huan; Nishihori, Taiga; Malone, Adriana K.; Valcárcel, David; Grunwald, Michael R.; Bacher, Ulrike; Hamilton, Betty; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A.; Saad, Ayman; Cutler, Corey; Warlick, Erica; Reshef, Ran; Wirk, Baldeep Mona; Sabloff, Mitchell; Fasan, Omotayo; Gerds, Aaron; Marks, David; Olsson, Richard; Wood, William Allen; Costa, Luciano J.; Miller, Alan M.; Cortes, Jorge; Daly, Andrew; Kindwall-Keller, Tamila L.; Kamble, Rammurti; Rizzieri, David A.; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Gale, Robert Peter; William, Basem; Litzow, Mark; Wiernik, Peter H.; Liesveld, Jane; Savani, Bipin N.; Vij, Ravi; Ustun, Celalettin; Copelan, Edward; Popat, Uday; Kalaycio, Matt; Maziarz, Richard; Alyea, Edwin; Sobecks, Ron; Pavletic, Steven; Tallman, Martin; Saber, Wael

2016-01-01

Purpose To develop a system prognostic of outcome in those undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo HCT) for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Patients and Methods We examined 2,133 patients with MDS undergoing HLA-matched (n = 1,728) or -mismatched (n = 405) allo HCT from 2000 to 2012. We used a Cox multivariable model to identify factors prognostic of mortality in a training subset (n = 1,151) of the HLA-matched cohort. A weighted score using these factors was assigned to the remaining patients undergoing HLA-matched allo HCT (validation cohort; n = 577) as well as to patients undergoing HLA-mismatched allo HCT. Results Blood blasts greater than 3% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.85), platelets 50 × 109/L or less at transplantation (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.61), Karnofsky performance status less than 90% (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.28), comprehensive cytogenetic risk score of poor or very poor (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.80), and age 30 to 49 years (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.35) were associated with increased hazard of death and assigned 1 point in the scoring system. Monosomal karyotype (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.65 to 2.45) and age 50 years or older (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.36 to 2.83) were assigned 2 points. The 3-year overall survival after transplantation in patients with low (0 to 1 points), intermediate (2 to 3), high (4 to 5) and very high (≥ 6) scores was 71% (95% CI, 58% to 85%), 49% (95% CI, 42% to 56%), 41% (95% CI, 31% to 51%), and 25% (95% CI, 4% to 46%), respectively (P < .001). Increasing score was predictive of increased relapse (P < .001) and treatment-related mortality (P < .001) in the HLA-matched set and relapse (P < .001) in the HLA-mismatched cohort. Conclusion The proposed system is prognostic of outcome in patients undergoing HLA-matched and -mismatched allo HCT for MDS. PMID:27044940

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a proposal of a prognostic scoring system.

PubMed

Iwatsuki, S; Dvorchik, I; Marsh, J W; Madariaga, J R; Carr, B; Fung, J J; Starzl, T E

2000-10-01

The current staging system of hepatocellular carcinoma established by the International Union Against Cancer and the American Joint Committee on Cancer does not necessarily predict the outcomes after hepatic resection or transplantation. Various clinical and pathologic risk factors for tumor recurrence were examined on 344 consecutive patients who received hepatic transplantation in the presence of nonfibrolamellar hepatocellular carcinoma to establish a reliable risk scoring system. Multivariate analysis identified three factors as independently significant poor prognosticators: 1) bilobarly distributed tumors, 2) size of the greatest tumor (2 to 5 cm and > 5 cm), and 3) vascular invasion (microscopic and macroscopic). Prognostic risk score (PRS) of each patient was calculated from the relative risks of multivariate analysis. The patients were grouped into five grades of tumor recurrence risk: grade 1: PRS = 0 to < 7.5; grade 2: PRS = 7.5 to < or = 11.0; grade 3: PRS > 11.0 to 15.0; grade 4: PRS > or = 15.0; and grade 5: positive node, metastasis, or margin. The proposed PRS system correlated extremely well with tumor-free survival after liver transplantation (100%, 61%, 40%, 5%, and 0%, from grades 1 to 5, respectively, at 5 years), but current pTNM staging did not. 1) Patients with grades 1 and 2 are effectively treated with liver transplantation, 2) patients with grades 4 and 5 are poor candidates for liver transplantation, and 3) patients with grade 1 do not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

A Novel Prognostic Score, Based on Preoperative Nutritional Status, Predicts Outcomes of Patients after Curative Resection for Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Liu, Xuechao; Qiu, Haibo; Liu, Jianjun; Chen, Shangxiang; Xu, Dazhi; Li, Wei; Zhan, Youqing; Li, Yuanfang; Chen, Yingbo; Zhou, Zhiwei; Sun, Xiaowei

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: We aimed to determine whether preoperative nutritional status (PNS) was a valuable predictor of outcome in patients with gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 1320 patients with GC undergoing curative resection. The PNS score was constructed based on four objective and easily measurable criteria: prognostic nutritional index (PNI) score 1, serum albumin <35 g/L, body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m 2 , or preoperative weight loss ≥5% of body weight. The PNS score was 2 for patients who met three or four criteria, 1 for those who met one or two criteria, and 0 for those who didn't meet all of these criteria. RESULTS: The overall survival (OS) rates in patients with PNS scores 0, 1, and 2 were 59.1%, 42.4%, and 23.4%, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses revealed the PNS was an independent predictor for OS (HR for PNS 1 and PNS 2: 1.497, 95 % CI: 1.230-1.820 and 2.434, 95 % CI: 1.773-3.340, respectively; p < 0.001). Furthermore, 5-year OS ranged from 92% (stage I) to 37% (stage III), while the combination of TNM and PNS stratified 5-year OS from 95% (TNM I, PNS 0) to 19% (TNM III, PNS 3). Of note, the prognostic significance of PNS was still maintained when stratified by TNM stage, age, sex, tumor size, anemia and adjuvant chemotherapy (All P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The PNS, a novel nutritional-based prognostic score, is independently associated with OS in GC. Prospective studies are needed to validate its clinical utility.

Trauma scoring systems and databases.

PubMed

Lecky, F; Woodford, M; Edwards, A; Bouamra, O; Coats, T

2014-08-01

This review considers current trauma scoring systems and databases and their relevance to improving patient care. Single physiological measures such as systolic arterial pressure have limited ability to diagnose severe trauma by reflecting raised intracranial pressure, or significant haemorrhage. The Glasgow coma score has the greatest prognostic value in head-injured and other trauma patients. Trauma triage tools and imaging decision rules-using combinations of physiological cut-off measures with mechanism of injury and other categorical variables-bring both increased sophistication and increased complexity. It is important for clinicians and managers to be aware of the diagnostic properties (over- and under-triage rates) of any triage tool or decision rule used in their trauma system. Trauma registries are able to collate definitive injury descriptors and use survival prediction models to guide trauma system governance, through individual patient review and case-mix-adjusted benchmarking of hospital and network performance with robust outlier identification. Interrupted time series allow observation in the changes in care processes and outcomes at national level, which can feed back into clinical quality-based commissioning of healthcare. Registry data are also a valuable resource for trauma epidemiological and comparative effectiveness research studies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[The use of scores in general medicine].

PubMed

Huber, Ursula; Rösli, Andreas; Ballmer, Peter E; Rippin, Sarah Jane

2013-10-01

Scores are tools to combine complex information into a numerical value. In General Medicine, there are scores to assist in making diagnoses and prognoses, scores to assist therapeutic decision making and to evaluate therapeutic results and scores to help physicians when informing and advising patients. We review six of the scoring systems that have the greatest utility for the General Physician in hospital-based care and in General Practice. The Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002) tool is designed to identify hospital patients in danger of malnutrition. The aim is to improve the nutritional status of these patients. The CURB-65 score predicts 30-day mortality in patients with community acquired pneumonia. Patients with a low score can be considered for home treatment, patients with an elevated score require hospitalisation and those with a high score should be treated as having severe pneumonia; treatment in the intensive care unit should be considered. The IAS-AGLA score of the Working Group on Lipids and Atherosclerosis of the Swiss Society of Cardiology calculates the 10-year risk of a myocardial infarction for people living in Switzerland. The working group makes recommendations for preventative treatment according to the calculated risk status. The Body Mass Index, which is calculated by dividing the body weight in kilograms by the height in meters squared and then divided into weight categories, is used to classify people as underweight, of normal weight, overweight or obese. The prognostic value of this classification is discussed. The Mini-Mental State Examination allows the physician to assess important cognitive functions in a simple and standardised form. The Glasgow Coma Scale is used to classify the level of consciousness in patients with head injury. It can be used for triage and correlates with prognosis.

Prospective multicenter validation of the Glasgow Blatchford bleeding score in the management of patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage presenting at an emergency department.

PubMed

Aquarius, Michel; Smeets, Fabiënne G M; Konijn, Helena W; Stassen, Patricia M; Keulen, Eric T; Van Deursen, Cees T; Masclee, Ad A M; Keulemans, Yolande C

2015-09-01

The Glasgow Blatchford Bleeding Score (GBS) has been developed to assess the need for treatment in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) presenting at emergency departments (EDs). We aimed (a) to determine the validity of the GBS and Rockall scoring systems for prediction of need for treatment and (b) to identify the optimal cut-off value of the GBS. We carried out a population-based, prospective multicenter study of 520 consecutive patients presenting with acute UGIH at EDs of three hospitals. The accuracy of GBS and Rockall scores in predicting the need for treatment (i.e. endoscopic, surgical, or radiological intervention and blood transfusion) was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the GBS had a good discriminative ability to determine the need for treatment in patients with acute UGIH (area under the curve: 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.85-0.91). The GBS was superior to both the clinical Rockall and the full Rockall score in predicting the need for treatment (area under the curve: 0.86 vs. 0.70 vs. 0.77). At a cut-off value of up to 2, the GBS had the optimal combination of sensitivity (99.4%) and specificity (42.4%). The GBS is superior compared with both Rockall scores in predicting the need for treatment in patients with suspected acute UGIH presenting at EDs in the Netherlands. Patients with a GBS of 2 or less form a subgroup of low-risk patients. These low-risk patients are eligible for outpatient management, which might reduce hospital admissions and healthcare costs.

Inter-rater reliability of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients: a prospective observational study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Introduction The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used scoring system for comatose patients in intensive care. Limitations of the GCS include the impossibility to assess the verbal score in intubated or aphasic patients, and an inconsistent inter-rater reliability. The FOUR (Full Outline of UnResponsiveness) score, a new coma scale not reliant on verbal response, was recently proposed. The aim of the present study was to compare the inter-rater reliability of the GCS and the FOUR score among unselected patients in general critical care. A further aim was to compare the inter-rater reliability of neurologists with that of intensive care unit (ICU) staff. Methods In this prospective observational study, scoring of GCS and FOUR score was performed by neurologists and ICU staff on 267 consecutive patients admitted to intensive care. Results In a total of 437 pair wise ratings the exact inter-rater agreement for the GCS was 71%, and for the FOUR score 82% (P = 0.0016); the inter-rater agreement within a range of ± 1 score point for the GCS was 90%, and for the FOUR score 92% (P = ns.). The exact inter-rater agreement among neurologists was superior to that among ICU staff for the FOUR score (87% vs. 79%, P = 0.04) but not for the GCS (73% vs. 73%). Neurologists and ICU staff did not significantly differ in the inter-rater agreement within a range of ± 1 score point for both GCS (88% vs. 93%) and the FOUR score (91% vs. 88%). Conclusions The FOUR score performed better than the GCS for exact inter-rater agreement, but not for the clinically more relevant agreement within the range of ± 1 score point. Though neurologists outperformed ICU staff with regard to exact inter-rater agreement, the inter-rater agreement of ICU staff within the clinically more relevant range of ± 1 score point equalled that of the neurologists. The small advantage in inter-rater reliability of the FOUR score is most likely insufficient to replace the GCS, a score with a long

Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

2013-08-01

This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). SYNTAX score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

Prognostic value of diffusion-weighted imaging summation scores or apparent diffusion coefficient maps in newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Cavalleri, Francesca; Lugli, Licia; Pugliese, Marisa; D'Amico, Roberto; Todeschini, Alessandra; Della Casa, Elisa; Gallo, Claudio; Frassoldati, Rossella; Ferrari, Fabrizio

2014-09-01

The diagnostic and prognostic assessment of newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) comprises, among other tools, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. To compare the ability of DWI and ADC maps in newborns with HIE to predict the neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of age. Thirty-four term newborns with HIE admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Modena University Hospital from 2004 to 2008 were consecutively enrolled in the study. All newborns received EEG, conventional MRI and DWI within the first week of life. DWI was analyzed by means of summation (S) score and regional ADC measurements. Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed with a standard 1-4 scale and the Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales - Revised (GMDS-R). When the outcome was evaluated with a standard 1-4 scale, the DWI S scores showed very high area under the curve (AUC) (0.89) whereas regional ADC measurements in specific subregions had relatively modest predictive value. The lentiform nucleus was the region with the highest AUC (0.78). When GMDS-R were considered, DWI S scores were good to excellent predictors for some GMDS-R subscales. The predictive value of ADC measurements was both region- and subscale-specific. In particular, ADC measurements in some regions (basal ganglia, white matter or rolandic cortex) were excellent predictors for specific GMDS-R with AUCs up to 0.93. DWI S scores showed the highest prognostic value for the neurological outcome at 2 years of age. Regional ADC measurements in specific subregions proved to be highly prognostic for specific neurodevelopmental outcomes.

A Psychological Service Contribution to Nurture: Glasgow's Nurturing City

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

March, Sam; Kearney, Maura

2017-01-01

This article details the work undertaken in Glasgow to develop a range of nurturing approaches across establishments. Glasgow Psychological Service (GPS), in conjunction with Glasgow education colleagues, used the nurture group principles as developed by the Nurture Group Network, and extended and adapted these to give more detail and direction as…

EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system predicts ELN-based 'event-free survival' better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving front-line imatinib mesylate.

PubMed

Uz, Burak; Buyukasik, Yahya; Atay, Hilmi; Kelkitli, Engin; Turgut, Mehmet; Bektas, Ozlen; Eliacik, Eylem; Isik, Ayşe; Aksu, Salih; Goker, Hakan; Sayinalp, Nilgun; Ozcebe, Osman I; Haznedaroglu, Ibrahim C

2013-09-01

The validity of the three currently used chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) scoring systems (Sokal CML prognostic scoring system, Euro/Hasford CML scoring system, and the EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system) were compared in the CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. One hundred and fourty-three chronic phase CML patients (71 males, 72 females) taking imatinib as frontline treatment were included in the study. The median age was 44 (16-82) years. Median total and on-imatinib follow-up durations were 29 (3.8-130) months and 25 (3-125) months, respectively. The complete hematological response (CHR) rate at 3 months was 95%. The best cumulative complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) rate at 24 months was 79.6%. Euro/Hasford scoring system was well-correlated with both Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.6, P < 0.001 and r = 0.455, P < 0.001). However, there was only a weak correlation between Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.2, P = 0.03). The 5-year median estimated event-free survival for low and high EUTOS risk patients were 62.6 (25.7-99.5) and 15.3 (7.4-23.2) months, respectively (P < 0.001). This performance was better than Sokal (P = 0.3) and Euro/Hasford (P = 0.04) scoring systems. Overall survival and CCyR rates were also better predicted by the EUTOS score. EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system, which is the only prognostic system developed during the imatinib era, predicts European LeukemiaNet (ELN)-based event-free survival better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. This observation might have important clinical implications.

A nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Jin-Shi; Huang, Ying; Yang, Xun; Feng, Ji-Feng

2015-01-01

Background: Inflammation plays an important role in cancer progression and prognosis. However, the prognostic values of inflammatory biomarkers in esophageal cancer (EC) were not established. In the present study, therefore, we initially used a nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: A total of 326 ESCC patients were included in this retrospective study. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte monocyte ratio (LMR) were analyzed in the current study. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cancer-specific survival (CSS). Cox regression analysis was also performed to evaluate the prognostic factors. A nomogram was established to predict the prognosis for CSS. Results: Patients were divided into 3 groups according to GPS (GPS 0, 1 and 2) and 2 groups according to NLR (≤3.45 and >3.45), PLR (≤166.5 and >166.5) and LMR (≤2.30 and >2.30). The 5-year CSS in patients with GPS 0, 1 and 2 were 49.2%, 26.8% and 11.9%, respectively (P<0.001). In addition, patients with NLR (>3.45), PLR (>166.5) and LMR (≤2.30) were significantly associated with decreased CSS, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002) and LMR (P=0.002) were independent prognostic factors in patients with ESCC. In addition, a nomogram was established according to all significantly independent factors for CSS. The Harrell’s c-index for CSS prediction was 0.72. Conclusion: GPS, PLR and LMR were potential prognostic biomarkers in patients with ESCC. The nomogram based on CSS could be used as an accurately prognostic prediction for patients with ESCC. PMID:26328248

Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Comparison of three scoring systems for risk stratification in elderly patients wıth acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Kalkan, Çağdaş; Soykan, Irfan; Karakaya, Fatih; Tüzün, Ali; Gençtürk, Zeynep Bıyıklı

2017-04-01

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially life-threatening condition that requires rapid assessment and dynamic management. Several scoring systems are used to predict mortality and rebleeding in such cases. The aim of the present study was to compare three scoring systems for predicting short-term mortality, rebleeding, duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion in elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The present study included 335 elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Pre- and post-endoscopic Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores were calculated. The ability of these scores to predict rebleeding, mortality, duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion was determined. Pre- (4.5) and post-endoscopic (7.5) Rockall scores were superior to the Glasgow-Blatchford (12.5) score for predicting mortality (P = 0.006 and P = 0.015). Likewise, pre- (4.5) and post-endoscopic Rockall scores were superior to the respective Glasgow-Blatchford scores for predicting rebleeding (P = 0.013 and P = 0.03). There was an association between duration of hospitalization and mortality; as the duration of hospitalization increased the mortality rate increased. In all, 94% of patients hospitalized for a mean of 5 days were alive versus 56.1% of those hospitalized for 20 days, and 20.2% of those hospitalized for 40 days. In elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the Rockall score is clinically more useful for predicting mortality and rebleeding than the Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores; however, for predicting duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion, the Glasgow-Blatchford score is superior to the Rockall and AIMS65 scores. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 575-583. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Proposed prognostic scoring system evaluating risk factors for biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after salvage radiation therapy.

PubMed

Lee, Richard J; Tzou, Katherine S; Heckman, Michael G; Hobbs, Corey J; Rawal, Bhupendra; Diehl, Nancy N; Peterson, Jennifer L; Paryani, Nitesh N; Ko, Stephen J; Daugherty, Larry C; Vallow, Laura A; Wong, William; Schild, Steven; Pisansky, Thomas M; Buskirk, Steven J

2016-08-01

To update a previously proposed prognostic scoring system that predicts risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after salvage radiation therapy (SRT) for recurrent prostate cancer when using additional patients and a PSA value of 0.2 ng/mL and rising as the definition of BCR. We included 577 patients who received SRT for a rising PSA after radical prostatectomy in this retrospective cohort study. Clinical, pathological, and SRT characteristics were evaluated for association with BCR using relative risks (RRs) from multivariable Cox regression models. With a median follow-up of 5.5 years after SRT, 354 patients (61%) experienced BCR. At 5 years after SRT, 40% of patients were free of BCR. Independent associations with BCR were identified for the PSA level before SRT (RR [doubling]: 1.25, P < 0.001), pathological tumour stage (RR [T3a vs T2] 1.21, P = 0.19; RR [T3b/T4 vs T2] 2.09, P < 0.001; overall P < 0.001), Gleason score (RR [7 vs <7] 1.63, P < 0.001; RR [8-10 vs <7] 2.28, P < 0.001; overall P < 0.001), and surgical margin status (RR [positive vs negative] 0.71, P = 0.003). We combined these four variables to create a prognostic scoring system that predicted BCR risk with a c-index of 0.66. Scores ranged from 0 to 7, and 5-year freedom from BCR for different levels of the score was as follows: Score = 0-1: 66%, Score = 2: 46%, Score = 3: 28%, Score = 4: 19%, and Score = 5-7: 15%. We developed a scoring system that provides an estimation of the risk of BCR after SRT. These findings will be useful for patients and physicians in decision making for radiation therapy in the salvage setting. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nutritional prognostic scores in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma treated by percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting combined with 125I seed intracavitary irradiation: A retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Cui, Peiyuan; Pang, Qing; Wang, Yong; Qian, Zhen; Hu, Xiaosi; Wang, Wei; Li, Zongkuang; Zhou, Lei; Man, Zhongran; Yang, Song; Jin, Hao; Liu, Huichun

2018-06-01

We mainly aimed to preliminarily explore the prognostic values of nutrition-based prognostic scores in patients with advanced hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA).We retrospectively analyzed 73 cases of HCCA, who underwent percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting (PTBS) combined with I seed intracavitary irradiation from November 2012 to April 2017 in our department. The postoperative changes of total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and albumin (ALB) were observed. The preoperative clinical data were collected to calculate the nutrition-based scores, including controlling nutritional status (CONUT), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI). Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression model were used for overall survival (OS) analyses.The serum levels of TBIL, DBIL, ALT, AST, and ALP significantly reduced, and ALB significantly increased at 1 month and 3 months postoperatively. The median survival time of the cohort was 12 months and the 1-year survival rate was 53.1%. Univariate analysis revealed that the statistically significant factors related to OS were CA19-9, TBIL, ALB, CONUT, and PNI. Multivariate analysis further identified CA19-9, CONUT, and PNI as independent prognostic factors.Nutrition-based prognostic scores, CONUT and PNI in particular, can be used as predictors of survival in unresectable HCCA.

Analysis of long-term (median 10.5 years) outcomes in children presenting with traumatic brain injury and an initial Glasgow Coma Scale score of 3 or 4.

PubMed

Fulkerson, Daniel H; White, Ian K; Rees, Jacqueline M; Baumanis, Maraya M; Smith, Jodi L; Ackerman, Laurie L; Boaz, Joel C; Luerssen, Thomas G

2015-10-01

Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) with low presenting Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores have very high morbidity and mortality rates. Neurosurgeons may be faced with difficult decisions in managing the most severely injured (GCS scores of 3 or 4) patients. The situation may be considered hopeless, with little chance of a functional recovery. Long-term data are limited regarding the clinical outcome of children with severe head injury. The authors evaluate predictor variables and the clinical outcomes at discharge, 1 year, and long term (median 10.5 years) in a cohort of children with TBI presenting with postresuscitation GCS scores of 3 and 4. A review of a prospectively collected trauma database was performed. Patients treated at Riley Hospital for Children (Indianapolis, Indiana) from 1988 to 2004 were reviewed. All children with initial GCS (modified for pediatric patients) scores of 3 or 4 were identified. Patients with a GCS score of 3 were compared with those with a GCS score of 4. The outcomes of all patients at the time of death or discharge and at 1-year and long-term follow-up were measured with a modified Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) that included a "normal" outcome. Long-term outcomes were evaluated by contacting surviving patients. Statistical "classification trees" were formed for survival and outcome, based on predictor variables. Sixty-seven patients with a GCS score of 3 or 4 were identified in a database of 1636 patients (4.1%). Three of the presenting factors differed between the GCS 3 patients (n = 44) and the GCS 4 patients (n = 23): presence of hypoxia, single seizure, and open basilar cisterns on CT scan. The clinical outcomes were statistically similar between the 2 groups. In total, 48 (71.6%) of 67 patients died, remained vegetative, or were severely disabled by 1 year. Eight patients (11.9%) were normal at 1 year. Ten of the 22 patients with long-term follow-up were either normal or had a GOS score of 5. Multiple clinical

The food retail environment and area deprivation in Glasgow City, UK

PubMed Central

Macdonald, Laura; Ellaway, Anne; Macintyre, Sally

2009-01-01

It has previously been suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within modern cities have poor access to general amenities, for example, fewer food retail outlets. Here we examine the distribution of food retailers by deprivation in the City of Glasgow, UK. We obtained a list of 934 food retailers in Glasgow, UK, in 2007, and mapped these at address level. We categorised small areas (data zones) into quintiles of area deprivation using the 2006 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Income sub-domain score. We computed mean number of retailers per 1000 residents per data zone, and mean network distance to nearest outlet from data zone centroid, for all retailers combined and for each of seven categories of retailer separately (i.e. bakers, butchers, fruit and vegetable sellers, fishmongers, convenience stores, supermarkets and delicatessens). The most deprived quintile (of areas) had the greatest mean number of total food retailers per 1000 residents while quintile 1 (least deprived) had the least, and this difference was statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). The closest mean distance to the nearest food retailer was within quintile 3 while the furthest distance was within quintile 1, and this was also statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). There was variation in the distribution of the seven different types of food retailers, and access to amenities depended upon the type of food retailer studied and whether proximity or density was measured. Overall the findings suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within the City of Glasgow did not necessarily have fewer food retail outlets. PMID:19660114

The food retail environment and area deprivation in Glasgow City, UK.

PubMed

Macdonald, Laura; Ellaway, Anne; Macintyre, Sally

2009-08-06

It has previously been suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within modern cities have poor access to general amenities, for example, fewer food retail outlets. Here we examine the distribution of food retailers by deprivation in the City of Glasgow, UK.We obtained a list of 934 food retailers in Glasgow, UK, in 2007, and mapped these at address level. We categorised small areas (data zones) into quintiles of area deprivation using the 2006 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Income sub-domain score. We computed mean number of retailers per 1000 residents per data zone, and mean network distance to nearest outlet from data zone centroid, for all retailers combined and for each of seven categories of retailer separately (i.e. bakers, butchers, fruit and vegetable sellers, fishmongers, convenience stores, supermarkets and delicatessens).The most deprived quintile (of areas) had the greatest mean number of total food retailers per 1000 residents while quintile 1 (least deprived) had the least, and this difference was statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). The closest mean distance to the nearest food retailer was within quintile 3 while the furthest distance was within quintile 1, and this was also statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). There was variation in the distribution of the seven different types of food retailers, and access to amenities depended upon the type of food retailer studied and whether proximity or density was measured. Overall the findings suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within the City of Glasgow did not necessarily have fewer food retail outlets.

Bicarbonate can improve the prognostic value of the MELD score for critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

PubMed

Chen, Cheng-Yi; Pan, Chi-Feng; Wu, Chih-Jen; Chen, Han-Hsiang; Chen, Yu-Wei

2014-07-01

The prognosis of critically ill patients with cirrhosis is poor. Our aim was to identify an objective variable that can improve the prognostic value of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in patients who have cirrhosis and are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). This retrospective cohort study included 177 patients who had liver cirrhosis and were admitted to the ICU. Data pertaining to arterial blood gas-related parameters and other variables were obtained on the day of ICU admission. The overall ICU mortality rate was 36.2%. The bicarbonate (HCO3) level was found to be an independent predictor of ICU mortality (odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-4.8; p = 0.038). A new equation was constructed (MELD-Bicarbonate) by replacing total bilirubin by HCO3 in the original MELD score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting ICU mortality was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.84) for the MELD-Bicarbonate equation, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the MELD score, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.80) for the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. Bicarbonate level assessment, as an objective and reproducible laboratory test, has significant predictive value in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. In contrast, the predictive value of total bilirubin is not as prominent in this setting. The MELD-Bicarbonate equation, which included three variables (international normalized ratio, creatinine level, and HCO3 level), showed better prognostic value than the original MELD score in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

Prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in pancreatic cancer: a comprehensive meta-analysis of 17 cohort studies.

PubMed

Zhou, Yongping; Cheng, Sijin; Fathy, Abdel Hamid; Qian, Haixin; Zhao, Yongzhao

2018-01-01

Several studies were conducted to explore the prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in pancreatic cancer and have reported contradictory results. This study aims to summarize the prognostic role of PLR in pancreatic cancer. Embase, PubMed and Cochrane Library were completely searched. The cohort studies focusing on the prognostic role of PLR in pancreatic cancer were eligible. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. Fifteen papers containing 17 cohort studies with pancreatic cancer were identified. The results showed patients that with low PLR might have longer OS when compared to the patients with high PLR (hazard ratio=1.28, 95% CI=1.17-1.40, P <0.00001; I 2 =42%). Similar results were observed in the subgroup analyses of OS, which was based on the analysis model, ethnicity, sample size and cut-off value. Further analyses based on the adjusted potential confounders were conducted, including CA199, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, albumin, C-reactive protein, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, stage, tumor size, nodal involvement, tumor differentiation, margin status, age and gender, which confirmed that low PLR was a protective factor in pancreatic cancer. In addition, low PLR was significantly associated with longer PFS when compared to high PLR in pancreatic cancer (hazard ratio=1.27, 95% CI=1.03-1.57, P =0.03; I 2 =33%). In conclusion, it was found that high PLR is an unfavorable predictor of OS and PFS in patients with pancreatic cancer, and PLR is a promising prognostic biomarker for pancreatic cancer.

Prognostic capability of different liver disease scoring systems for prediction of early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation.

PubMed

Gaba, Ron C; Couture, Patrick M; Bui, James T; Knuttinen, M Grace; Walzer, Natasha M; Kallwitz, Eric R; Berkes, Jamie L; Cotler, Scott J

2013-03-01

To compare the performance of various liver disease scoring systems in predicting early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. In this single-institution retrospective study, eight scoring systems were used to grade liver disease in 211 patients (male-to-female ratio = 131:80; mean age, 54 y) before TIPS creation from 1999-2011. Scoring systems included bilirubin level, Child-Pugh (CP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score, Emory score, prognostic index (PI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) 2 score, and Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score. Medical record review was used to identify 30-day and 90-day clinical outcomes. The relationship of scoring parameters with mortality outcomes was assessed with multivariate analysis, and the relative ability of systems to predict mortality after TIPS creation was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. TIPS were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 121), ascites (n = 72), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 15), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 3). All scoring systems had a significant association with 30-day and 90-day mortality (P<.050 in each case) on multivariate analysis. Based on 30-day and 90-day AUROC, MELD (0.878, 0.816) and MELD-Na (0.863, 0.823) scores had the best capability to predict early mortality compared with bilirubin (0.786, 0.749), CP (0.822, 0.771), Emory (0.786, 0.681), PI (0.854, 0.760), APACHE 2 (0.836, 0.735), and BOTEM (0.798, 0.698), with statistical superiority over bilirubin, Emory, and BOTEM scores. Several liver disease scoring systems have prognostic value for early mortality after TIPS creation. MELD and MELD-Na scores most effectively predict survival after TIPS creation. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A new prognostic score for elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with R-CHOP: the prognostic role of blood monocyte and lymphocyte counts is absent.

PubMed

Procházka, Vít; Pytlík, Robert; Janíková, Andrea; Belada, David; Sálek, David; Papajík, Tomáš; Campr, Vít; Fürst, Tomáš; Furstova, Jana; Trněný, Marek

2014-01-01

Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) and absolute monocyte count (AMC) have been documented as independent predictors of survival in patients with newly diagnosed Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL). Analysis of the prognostic impact of ALC and AMC in the context of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and other significant variables in elderly population treated in the R-CHOP regime has not been carried out yet. In this retrospective study, a cohort of 443 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients with age ≥ 60 was analyzed. All patients were treated with the R-CHOP therapy. An extensive statistical analysis was performed to identify risk factors of 3-year overall survival (OS). In multivariate analysis, only three predictors proved significant: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG), age and bulky disease presence. These predictors were dichotomized (ECOG ≥ 1, age ≥ 70, bulk ≥ 7.5) to create a novel four-level score. This score predicted 3-year OS of 94.0%, 77.4%, 62.7% and 35.4% in the low-, low-intermediate, high-intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001). Further, a three-level score was tested which stratifies the population better (3-year OS: 91.9%, 67.2%, 36.2% in the low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively) but is more difficult to interpret. Both the 3- and 4-level scores were compared to standard scoring systems and, in our population, were shown to be superior in terms of patients risk stratification with respect to 3-year OS prediction. The results were successfully validated on an independent cohort of 162 patients of similar group characteristics. The prognostic role of baseline ALC, AMC or their ratio (LMR) was not confirmed in the multivariate context in elderly population with DLBCL treated with R-CHOP. The newly proposed age-specific index stratifies the elderly population into risk groups more precisely than the conventional IPI and its existing variants.

Prognostic Performance Evaluation of the International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis and the Korean Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis Scores in the Early Phase of Trauma.

PubMed

Kim, Hong Sug; Lee, Dong Hun; Lee, Byung Kook; Cho, Yong Soo

2018-01-15

Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) contributes to poor outcome in the early phase of trauma. We aimed to analyze and compare the prognostic performances of the International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis (ISTH) and the Korean Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis (KSTH) scores in the early phase of trauma. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was used to examine the prognostic performance of both scores, and multivariate analysis was used to estimate the prognostic impact of the ISTH and KSTH scores in the early phase of trauma. The primary outcome was 24-hour mortality and the secondary outcome was massive transfusion. Of 1,229 patients included in the study, the 24-hour mortality rate was 7.6% (n = 93), and 8.1% (n = 99) of patients who received massive transfusions. The area under the curves (AUCs) of the KSTH and ISTH scores for 24-hour mortality were 0.784 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.760-0.807) and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.718-0.768), respectively. The AUC of KSTH and ISTH scores for massive transfusion were 0.758 (95% CI, 0.734-0.782) and 0.646 (95% CI, 0.619-0.673), respectively. The AUCs of the KSTH score was significantly different from those of the ISTH score. Overt DIC according to KSTH criteria only, was independently associated with 24-hour mortality (odds ratio [OR], 2.630; 95% CI, 1.456-4.752). Only the KSTH score was independently associated with massive transfusion (OR, 1.563; 95% CI, 1.182-2.068). The KSTH score demonstrates a better prognostic performance for outcomes than the ISTH score in the early phase of trauma. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Prognostic Value of Risk Score and Urinary Markers in Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy

PubMed Central

Hofstra, Julia M.; Wetzels, Jack F.M.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. Design, setting, participants, & measurements One hundred four patients with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy who presented between 1995 and 2008 with a well-preserved kidney function and nephrotic range proteinuria were included. Urinary β2-microglobulin and α1-microglobulin measurements were obtained by timed standardized measurements, and the Toronto Risk Score was calculated using data obtained from medical records. The endpoint was progression, which was defined as an increase in serum creatinine>50% or >25% with a concentration>135 μmol/L. Results Forty-nine patients showed progression. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval=0.69–0.88) for the risk score versus 0.80 (0.71–0.89) and 0.79 (0.71–0.88) for urinary β2- and α1-microglobulin, respectively. Differences were not significant. Persistent proteinuria did not add accuracy to the Toronto Risk Score. Conversely, its accuracy was not reduced when data from the first 6 months of follow-up were used. Furthermore, a score based on GFR estimated with the six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, calculated in the first 6 months of follow-up, gave an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (0.74–0.92), which was not statistically different from other markers. Conclusions The prognostic accuracies of the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins were not significantly different. The risk score can be calculated within 6 months of diagnosis, and a simplified risk score using estimated GFR–Modification of Diet in Renal Disease may be sufficient. PMID:22595828

[Mortality in patients with potentially severe trauma in a tertiary care hospital emergency department and evaluation of risk prediction with the GAP prognostic scale].

PubMed

Martín Quirós, Alejandro; Borobia Pérez, Alberto; Pertejo Fernández, Ana; Pérez Perilla, Patricia; Rivera Núñez, Angélica; Martínez Virto, Ana María; Quintana Díaz, Manuel

2015-01-01

To assess mortality in patients with potentially severe injuries and explore the correlation between mortality and the score on the GAP scale (Glasgow Coma Scale, age, and systolic blood pressure). Retrospective observational study of all patients with potentially severe injuries treated in an emergency department (ED) over a period of 15 months. We recorded epidemiologic variables, cause of injury, type of transport, need for prehospital orotracheal intubation, substance abuse, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), variables for the GAP prognostic score, destination on discharge from the ED and at the end of the episode, and mortality. Data for 864 patients entered the final analysis. Mortality was higher in older patients (mean [SD] age, 57.9 [26.6] vs 41.1 [17.4], P<.05) and those with a higher mean CCI (3.3 [2.9] vs 0.9 [1.7]). Accident type was a precipitating factor associated with mortality (P<.001), but substance abuse was unrelated. Patients who died had lower mean Glasgow scores (9.1 [5.3] vs 14.8 [1.2], P<.001) and lower mean systolic and diastolic pressures (respectively, 113.8 [19.8] vs 131.3 [20.7] mm Hg, P=.012, and 60.1 [16.8] vs 77.7 [11.7] mm Hg, P=.002). Patients who died also had lower mean GAP scores than survivors (15.1 [4.8] vs 22.6 [1.7], P<.001). Risk factors that remained significant in the multivariate analysis were CCI (odds ratio [OR], 0.704; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96) and GAP score (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.45-2.20). Mortality in our patient series was lower than rates in previously published reports. The GAP score was a useful tool for predicting mortality in the series we studied.

Plasma 8-iso-Prostaglandin F2α, a possible prognostic marker in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Pan, De-Sheng; Yan, Min; Hassan, Muhammad; Fang, Ze-Bin; Chen, Man-Tao

2017-06-01

8-iso-Prostaglandin F2α (8-iso-PGF2α) is a potential biomarker of oxidative stress. This study clarified whether plasma 8-iso-PGF2α concentrations were affected and its underlying relevance to prognosis in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). In this prospective, observational study, a total of 170 controls and 170 aSAH patients were enrolled. Plasma 8-iso-PGF2α concentrations were detected using an ELISA. Severity was assessed by World Federation of Neurological Surgeons (WFNS) scale and modified Fisher grading scale. Clinical outcomes included 6-month mortality and poor outcome referred to as Glasgow outcome scale score of 1-3. As compared to controls, admission plasma 8-iso-PGF2α concentrations were significantly enhanced. Increased concentrations of plasma 8-iso-PGF2α correlated with WFNS scores and modified Fisher scores. 8-iso-PGF2α in plasma was an independent predictor for clinical outcomes. Under ROC curve, the predictive values of 8-iso-PGF2α concentrations resembled those of WFNS scores and modified Fisher scores for clinical outcomes. An elevation in plasma 8-iso-PGF2α concentrations is associated with the severity and poor outcome after aSAH, substantializing 8-iso-PGF2α as a potential prognostic biomarker of aSAH. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Coronary artery calcium scoring does not add prognostic value to standard 64-section CT angiography protocol in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Kwon, Sung Woo; Kim, Young Jin; Shim, Jaemin; Sung, Ji Min; Han, Mi Eun; Kang, Dong Won; Kim, Ji-Ye; Choi, Byoung Wook; Chang, Hyuk-Jae

2011-04-01

To evaluate the prognostic outcome of cardiac computed tomography (CT) for prediction of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease (CAD) and to explore the differential prognostic values of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and coronary CT angiography. Institutional review committee approval and informed consent were obtained. In 4338 patients who underwent 64-section CT for evaluation of suspected CAD, both CAC scoring and CT angiography were concurrently performed by using standard scanning protocols. Follow-up clinical outcome data regarding composite MACEs were procured. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict MACEs. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for CAC scoring and coronary CT angiography. During the mean follow-up of 828 days ± 380, there were 105 MACEs, for an event rate of 3%. The presence of obstructive CAD at coronary CT angiography had independent prognostic value, which escalated according to the number of stenosed vessels (P < .001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, the superiority of coronary CT angiography to CAC scoring was demonstrated by a significantly greater area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.892 vs 0.810, P < .001), whereas no significant incremental value for the addition of CAC scoring to coronary CT angiography was established (AUC = 0.892 for coronary CT angiography alone vs 0.902 with addition of CAC scoring, P = .198). Coronary CT angiography is better than CAC scoring in predicting MACEs in low-risk patients suspected of having CAD. Furthermore, the current standard multisection CT protocol (coronary CT angiography combined with CAC scoring) has no incremental prognostic value compared with coronary CT angiography alone. Therefore, in terms of determining prognosis, CAC scoring may no longer need to be incorporated in the cardiac CT protocol in this population. © RSNA, 2011.

HPV RNA CISH score identifies two prognostic groups in a p16 positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma population.

PubMed

Augustin, Jérémy; Mandavit, Marion; Outh-Gauer, Sophie; Grard, Ophélie; Gasne, Cassandre; Lépine, Charles; Mirghani, Haïtham; Hans, Stéphane; Bonfils, Pierre; Denize, Thomas; Bruneval, Patrick; Bishop, Justin A; Fontugne, Jacqueline; Péré, Hélène; Tartour, Eric; Badoual, Cécile

2018-06-20

HPV-related and HPV-unrelated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas are two distinct entities according to the Union for International Cancer Control, with a better prognosis conferred to HPV-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas. However, variable clinical outcomes are observed among patients with p16 positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, which is a surrogate marker of HPV infection. We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of RNA CISH against E6 and E7 transcripts (HPV RNA CISH) to predict such variability. We retrospectively included 50 histologically confirmed p16 positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (p16 positive immunostaining was defined by a strong staining in 70% or more of tumor cells). HPV RNA CISH staining was assessed semi-quantitatively to define two scores: RNA CISH "low" and RNA CISH "high". Negative HPV RNA CISH cases were scored as RNA CISH "low". This series contained 29 RNA CISH low cases (58%) and 21 RNA CISH high cases (42%). Clinical and pathologic baseline characteristics were similar between the two groups. RNA CISH high staining was associated with a better overall survival in both univariate and multivariate analyses (p = 0.033 and p = 0.042, respectively). Other recorded parameters had no prognostic value. In conclusion, HPV RNA CISH might be an independent prognostic marker in p16 positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas and might help guide therapeutics.

Systemic Inflammation-Based Biomarkers and Survival in HIV-Positive Subject With Solid Cancer in an Italian Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Raffetti, Elena; Donato, Francesco; Pezzoli, Chiara; Digiambenedetto, Simona; Bandera, Alessandra; Di Pietro, Massimo; Di Filippo, Elisa; Maggiolo, Franco; Sighinolfi, Laura; Fornabaio, Chiara; Castelnuovo, Filippo; Ladisa, Nicoletta; Castelli, Francesco; Quiros Roldan, Eugenia

2015-08-15

Recently, some systemic inflammation-based biomarkers have been demonstrated useful for predicting risk of death in patients with solid cancer independently of tumor characteristics. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic role of systemic inflammation-based biomarkers in HIV-infected patients with solid tumors and to propose a risk score for mortality in these subjects. Clinical and pathological data on solid AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) and non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC), diagnosed between 1998 and 2012 in an Italian cohort, were analyzed. To evaluate the prognostic role of systemic inflammation- and nutrition-based markers, univariate and multivariable Cox regression models were applied. To compute the risk score equation, the patients were randomly assigned to a derivation and a validation sample. A total of 573 patients (76.3% males) with a mean age of 46.2 years (SD = 10.3) were enrolled. 178 patients died during a median of 3.2 years of follow-up. For solid NADCs, elevated Glasgow Prognostic Score, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, and Prognostic Nutritional Index were independently associated with risk of death; for solid ADCs, none of these markers was associated with risk of death. For solid NADCs, we computed a mortality risk score on the basis of age at cancer diagnosis, intravenous drug use, and Prognostic Nutritional Index. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.67 (95% confidence interval: 0.58 to 0.75) in the derivation sample and 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.54 to 0.79) in the validation sample. Inflammatory biomarkers were associated with risk of death in HIV-infected patients with solid NADCs but not with ADCs.

Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

PubMed

Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

2014-11-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

APACHE II score in massive upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from peptic ulcer: prognostic value and potential clinical applications.

PubMed

Schein, M; Gecelter, G

1989-07-01

This study examined the prognostic value of the APACHE II scoring system in patients undergoing emergency operations for bleeding peptic ulcer. There were 96 operations for gastric ulcers and 58 for duodenal ulcers. The mean scores in survivors and in patients who died were 10.8 and 17.5 respectively. None of the 66 patients with an APACHE II score less than 11 died, while the mortality rate in those scored greater than 10 was 22 per cent. In patients scored greater than 10 non-resective procedures carried less risk of mortality than gastrectomy. The APACHE II score is useful when measuring the severity of the acute disease and predicting the outcome in these patients. If used in daily practice it may assist the surgeon in stratifying patients into a low-risk group (score less than 11) in which major operations are well tolerated and outcome is favourable and a high-risk group (score greater than 10) in which the risk of mortality is high and the performance of procedures of lesser magnitude is probably more likely to improve survival.

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

PubMed

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-02-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

PubMed Central

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-01-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

Short- and Long-Term Prognostic Utility of the HEART Score in Patients Evaluated in the Emergency Department for Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome.

PubMed

Jain, Tarun; Nowak, Richard; Hudson, Michael; Frisoli, Tiberio; Jacobsen, Gordon; McCord, James

2016-06-01

The HEART score is a risk-stratification tool that was developed and validated for patients evaluated for possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the emergency department (ED). We sought to determine the short-term and long-term prognostic utility of the HEART score. A retrospective single-center analysis of 947 patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED in 1999 was conducted. Patients were followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) at 30 days: death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization procedure. All-cause mortality was assessed at 5 years. The HEART score was compared with the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. At 30 days, 14% (135/947) of patients had an MACE: 48 deaths (5%), 84 acute myocardial infarctions (9%), and 48 (5%) revascularization procedures. The MACE rate in patients with HEART score ≤3 was 0.6% (1/175) involving a revascularization procedure, 9.5% (53/557) in patients with HEART score between 4 and 6, and 38% (81/215) with HEART score ≥7. The C-statistic for the HEART score was 0.82 and 0.68 for the TIMI score for predicting 30-day MACE (P < 0.05). Patients with HEART score ≤3 had lower 5-year mortality rate compared with those with TIMI score of 0 (10.6% vs. 20.5%, P = 0.02). The HEART score is a valuable risk-stratification tool in predicting not only short-term MACE but also long-term mortality in patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED. The HEART score had a superior prognostic value compared with the TIMI score.

An Exploration of Smoking Behavior of African Male Immigrants Living in Glasgow

PubMed Central

Ezika, Ejiofor Augustine

2014-01-01

INTRODUCTION The aim of this research study was to explore the smoking behavior of adult African male immigrant smokers living in Glasgow to inform and contribute to primary health promotion frameworks. METHODS 25 adult African male immigrant smokers living in Glasgow were recruited via consecutive sampling by soliciting for participation through the use of flyers, posters and word of mouth. Data collection occurred via semi-structured face-to-face interviews. The interviews were audio taped, after which verbatim transcription was carried out and the data analyzed thematically. RESULTS The participants’ smoking habits were influenced by cold weather environment as well as societal norms that appear to make the smoking habit more acceptable in Glasgow than Africa. It appears the more educated the participants were, the fewer cigarettes they smoked. However, there was only a slight difference in the number of cigarettes smoked between participants with a degree and those with a postgraduate degree. CONCLUSION The participants’ smoking habits in Glasgow appear to have increased because of environmental variables associated with living in Glasgow, specifically the cold weather environment and high acceptability of smoking habits in Glasgow. PMID:25741179

Retrospective study of long-term outcome after brain arteriovenous malformation rupture: the RAP score.

PubMed

Shotar, Eimad; Debarre, Matthieu; Sourour, Nader-Antoine; Di Maria, Federico; Gabrieli, Joseph; Nouet, Aurélien; Chiras, Jacques; Degos, Vincent; Clarençon, Frédéric

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE The authors aimed to design a score for stratifying patients with brain arteriovenous malformation (BAVM) rupture, based on the likelihood of a poor long-term neurological outcome. METHODS The records of consecutive patients with BAVM hemorrhagic events who had been admitted over a period of 11 years were retrospectively reviewed. Independent predictors of a poor long-term outcome (modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 3) beyond 1 year after admission were identified. A risk stratification scale was developed and compared with the intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) score to predict poor outcome and inpatient mortality. RESULTS One hundred thirty-five patients with 139 independent hemorrhagic events related to BAVM rupture were included in this analysis. Multivariate logistic regression followed by stepwise analysis showed that consciousness level according to the Glasgow Coma Scale (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.1-13.7, p < 10 -3 ), hematoma volume (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.8, p = 0.005), and intraventricular hemorrhage (OR 7.5, 95% CI 2.66-21, p < 10 -3 ) were independently associated with a poor outcome. A 12-point scale for ruptured BAVM prognostication was constructed combining these 3 factors. The score obtained using this new scale, the ruptured AVM prognostic (RAP) score, was a stronger predictor of a poor long-term outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.87, 95% CI 0.8-0.92, p = 0.009) and inpatient mortality (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.95, p = 0.006) than the ICH score. For a RAP score ≥ 6, sensitivity and specificity for predicting poor outcome were 76.8% (95% CI 63.6-87) and 90.8% (95% CI 81.9-96.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The authors propose a new admission score, the RAP score, dedicated to stratifying the risk of poor long-term outcome after BAVM rupture. This easy-to-use scoring system may help to improve communication between health care providers and consistency in clinical research. Only external prospective cohorts and population

Prognostic Relevance of the Peritoneal Surface Disease Severity Score Compared to the Peritoneal Cancer Index for Colorectal Peritoneal Carcinomatosis

PubMed Central

Ng, Jia Lin; Ong, Whee Sze; Chia, Claramae Shulyn; Tan, Grace Hwei Ching; Soo, Khee-Chee; Teo, Melissa Ching Ching

2016-01-01

Background. Peritoneal Carcinomatosis Index (PCI) is a widely established scoring system that describes disease burden in isolated colorectal peritoneal carcinomatosis (CPC). Its significance may be diminished with complete cytoreduction. We explore the utility of the recently described Peritoneal Surface Disease Severity Score (PSDSS) and compare its prognostic value against PCI. Methods. The endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and survival less than 18 months (18 MS). Results. Fifty patients underwent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) for CPC from 2003 to 2014, with 98% achieving complete cytoreduction. Median OS was 28.8 months (95% CI, 18.0–39.1); median PFS was 9.4 months (95% CI, 7.7–13.9). Univariate analysis showed that higher PCI was significantly associated with poorer OS (HR 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03–1.20) and PFS (HR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03–1.14). Conversely, PSDSS was not associated with either endpoint. Multivariate analysis showed that PCI, but not PSDSS, was predictive of OS and PFS. PCI was also able to discriminate survival outcomes better than PSDSS for both OS and PFS. There was no association between 18 MS and either score. Conclusion. PCI is superior to PSDSS in predicting OS and PFS and remains the prognostic score of choice in CPC patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC. PMID:27006828

The prognostic value of midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide in patients with hemorrhagic stroke.

PubMed

Fischer, Marlene; Katan, Mira; Morgenthaler, Nils G; Seiler, Marleen; Müller, Beat; Lackner, Peter; Errath, Mario; Helbok, Raimund; Pfausler, Bettina; Beer, Ronny; Schmutzhard, Erich; Broessner, Gregor

2014-01-01

Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) is a well-known prognostic marker of outcome and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease. Midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) is a stable fragment of the ANP precursor hormone. As a prognostic marker after ischemic stroke, it reliably predicts poststroke mortality and functional outcome. This study aimed to analyze the prognostic value of MR-proANP in patients with hemorrhagic stroke, i.e. subarachnoid (SAH) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). MR-proANP was analyzed in patients with spontaneous SAH or spontaneous ICH. All patients were prospectively randomized into two treatment arms: (1) a prophylactic normothermia group with a target core temperature 36.5°C using endovascular cooling, and (2) a control group with conventional stepwise predefined fever management using antipyretic medication and surface cooling. Blood samples were obtained on admission and on days 4 and 7. Measurement of MR-proANP was performed in serum using sandwich immunoassay. The primary endpoint was functional outcome [assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS)] and the secondary endpoints were mortality within 180 days after hemorrhagic stroke and influence of temperature on MR-proANP. A favorable outcome was defined as GOS 4-5, and the patients were considered to have a poor outcome with a 180-day GOS score between 1 and 3. Analysis of MR-proANP was performed in 24 patients with spontaneous SAH and 22 patients with spontaneous ICH. MR-proANP was elevated on days 4 and 7 as compared to baseline levels (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively). High MR-proANP levels (>120 pmol/l) were associated with increased mortality and poor outcome (after 180 days; p < 0.05, respectively). There was no significant difference regarding MR-proANP serum concentrations between the endovascular and the control groups. Increased levels of MR-proANP are independently associated with poor functional outcome and increased mortality after 180 days in

Performance of Prognostic Risk Scores in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Enrolled in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry.

PubMed

Canepa, Marco; Fonseca, Candida; Chioncel, Ovidiu; Laroche, Cécile; Crespo-Leiro, Maria G; Coats, Andrew J S; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Piepoli, Massimo F; Tavazzi, Luigi; Maggioni, Aldo P

2018-06-01

This study compared the performance of major heart failure (HF) risk models in predicting mortality and examined their utilization using data from a contemporary multinational registry. Several prognostic risk scores have been developed for ambulatory HF patients, but their precision is still inadequate and their use limited. This registry enrolled patients with HF seen in participating European centers between May 2011 and April 2013. The following scores designed to estimate 1- to 2-year all-cause mortality were calculated in each participant: CHARM (Candesartan in Heart Failure-Assessment of Reduction in Mortality), GISSI-HF (Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure), MAGGIC (Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure), and SHFM (Seattle Heart Failure Model). Patients with hospitalized HF (n = 6,920) and ambulatory HF patients missing any variable needed to estimate each score (n = 3,267) were excluded, leaving a final sample of 6,161 patients. At 1-year follow-up, 5,653 of 6,161 patients (91.8%) were alive. The observed-to-predicted survival ratios (CHARM: 1.10, GISSI-HF: 1.08, MAGGIC: 1.03, and SHFM: 0.98) suggested some overestimation of mortality by all scores except the SHFM. Overprediction occurred steadily across levels of risk using both the CHARM and the GISSI-HF, whereas the SHFM underpredicted mortality in all risk groups except the highest. The MAGGIC showed the best overall accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.743), similar to the GISSI-HF (AUC = 0.739; p = 0.419) but better than the CHARM (AUC = 0.729; p = 0.068) and particularly better than the SHFM (AUC = 0.714; p = 0.018). Less than 1% of patients received a prognostic estimate from their enrolling physician. Performance of prognostic risk scores is still limited and physicians are reluctant to use them in daily practice. The need for contemporary, more precise prognostic tools should be considered. Copyright �

The Glasgow Voice Memory Test: Assessing the ability to memorize and recognize unfamiliar voices.

PubMed

Aglieri, Virginia; Watson, Rebecca; Pernet, Cyril; Latinus, Marianne; Garrido, Lúcia; Belin, Pascal

2017-02-01

One thousand one hundred and twenty subjects as well as a developmental phonagnosic subject (KH) along with age-matched controls performed the Glasgow Voice Memory Test, which assesses the ability to encode and immediately recognize, through an old/new judgment, both unfamiliar voices (delivered as vowels, making language requirements minimal) and bell sounds. The inclusion of non-vocal stimuli allows the detection of significant dissociations between the two categories (vocal vs. non-vocal stimuli). The distributions of accuracy and sensitivity scores (d') reflected a wide range of individual differences in voice recognition performance in the population. As expected, KH showed a dissociation between the recognition of voices and bell sounds, her performance being significantly poorer than matched controls for voices but not for bells. By providing normative data of a large sample and by testing a developmental phonagnosic subject, we demonstrated that the Glasgow Voice Memory Test, available online and accessible from all over the world, can be a valid screening tool (~5 min) for a preliminary detection of potential cases of phonagnosia and of "super recognizers" for voices.

Scoring severity in trauma: comparison of prehospital scoring systems in trauma ICU patients.

PubMed

Llompart-Pou, J A; Chico-Fernández, M; Sánchez-Casado, M; Salaberria-Udabe, R; Carbayo-Górriz, C; Guerrero-López, F; González-Robledo, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Herrán-Monge, R; Servià-Goixart, L; León-López, R; Val-Jordán, E

2017-06-01

We evaluated the predictive ability of mechanism, Glasgow coma scale, age and arterial pressure (MGAP), Glasgow coma scale, age and systolic blood pressure (GAP), and triage-revised trauma Score (T-RTS) scores in patients from the Spanish trauma ICU registry using the trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) as a reference standard. Patients admitted for traumatic disease in the participating ICU were included. Quantitative data were reported as median [interquartile range (IQR), categorical data as number (percentage)]. Comparisons between groups with quantitative variables and categorical variables were performed using Student's T Test and Chi Square Test, respectively. We performed receiving operating curves (ROC) and evaluated the area under the curve (AUC) with its 95 % confidence interval (CI). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values and accuracy were evaluated in all the scores. A value of p < 0.05 was considered significant. The final sample included 1361 trauma ICU patients. Median age was 45 (30-61) years. 1092 patients (80.3 %) were male. Median ISS was 18 (13-26) and median T-RTS was 11 (10-12). Median GAP was 20 (15-22) and median MGAP 24 (20-27). Observed mortality was 17.7 % whilst predicted mortality using TRISS was 16.9 %. The AUC in the scores evaluated was: TRISS 0.897 (95 % CI 0.876-0.918), MGAP 0.860 (95 % CI 0.835-0.886), GAP 0.849 (95 % CI 0.823-0.876) and T-RTS 0.796 (95 % CI 0.762-0.830). Both MGAP and GAP scores performed better than the T-RTS in the prediction of hospital mortality in Spanish trauma ICU patients. Since these are easy-to-perform scores, they should be incorporated in clinical practice as a triaging tool.

Controlling nutritional status score, a promising prognostic marker in patients with gastrointestinal cancers after surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Xu

2018-05-18

Controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score has been reported to correlate with gastrointestinal (GI) cancer prognosis, but the results remain inconsistent. This study was to synthetically determine the associations between CONUT score and prognosis in GI cancers. Online databases PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane library, Embase, Google scholar, Wanfang and National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched for eligible articles published prior to March 10, 2018. Pooled Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to assess the prognostic potential of CONUT score in patients with GI cancers using Stata SE 12.0. A total of 9 articles comprising 2400 patients were included in the analysis. Overall, CONUT score greater than the cutoff predicted poor 5-year overall survival for patients with GI cancers (HR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.84-2.95, p < 0.001) and 5-year cancer-specific survival (HR: 3.47, 95% CI: 1.75-5.19, p < 0.001). And patients with high CONUT score were at significantly greater risk of relapse/recurrence (HR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.30-1.98, p < 0.001). CONUT could be a noninvasive prognostic indicator that useful for predicting long-term survival in GI cancer patients after surgery. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Prognostic factors after cardiac arrest. Usefulness of early video-electroencephalogram].

PubMed

Arméstar, Fernando; Becerra Cuñat, Juan Luis; León Chan, Yariela; Mesalles Sanjuan, Eduard; Moreno, José Antonio; Jiménez González, Marta; Roca, Josep

2015-05-08

Predictors of unfavorable outcome in patients after cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) are important to make decisions about the limitation of therapeutic efforts. The aim was to analyze the clinical variables in the prognosis of patients recovered after CPA. Retrospective study on comatose patients with recovered CPA. The variables were: age, sex, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), pupillary light reflex, other variables related to CPA (cause, duration, witnessed or not witnessed), myoclonic status and electroencephalographic (EEG) patterns. Fifty patients were studied. The variables associated with mortality were the absence of pupillary light reflex (hazard ratio [HR] 0.277, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.103-0.741, P=.01), a low GCS (HR 0.701, 95% CI 0.542-0.908, P=.007) and myoclonic state (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.176-0.854, P=.01). We evaluated the EEG patterns in 22 patients. No statistical significance was observed. The absence of pupillary light reflex, a low GCS and myoclonic state are prognostic factors in patients recovered after a CPA. The EEG patterns showed a nonsignificant association with prognosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simplifying the use of prognostic information in traumatic brain injury. Part 2: Graphical presentation of probabilities.

PubMed

Murray, Gordon D; Brennan, Paul M; Teasdale, Graham M

2018-06-01

OBJECTIVE Clinical features such as those included in the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, pupil reactivity, and patient age, as well as CT findings, have clear established relationships with patient outcomes due to neurotrauma. Nevertheless, predictions made from combining these features in probabilistic models have not found a role in clinical practice. In this study, the authors aimed to develop a method of displaying probabilities graphically that would be simple and easy to use, thus improving the usefulness of prognostic information in neurotrauma. This work builds on a companion paper describing the GCS-Pupils score (GCS-P) as a tool for assessing the clinical severity of neurotrauma. METHODS Information about early GCS score, pupil response, patient age, CT findings, late outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale, and mortality were obtained at the individual adult patient level from the CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury; n = 9045) and IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in TBI; n = 6855) databases. These data were combined into a pooled data set for the main analysis. Logistic regression was first used to model the combined association between the GCS-P and patient age and outcome, following which CT findings were added to the models. The proportion of variability in outcomes "explained" by each model was assessed using Nagelkerke's R 2 . RESULTS The authors observed that patient age and GCS-P have an additive effect on outcome. The probability of mortality 6 months after neurotrauma is greater with increasing age, and for all age groups the probability of death is greater with decreasing GCS-P. Conversely, the probability of favorable recovery becomes lower with increasing age and lessens with decreasing GCS-P. The effect of combining the GCS-P with patient age was substantially more informative than the GCS-P, age, GCS score, or pupil reactivity alone. Two-dimensional charts were produced

[Comparison between Glascow-Blatchford, Rockall and AIMS65 scores in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital in Lima, Peru].

PubMed

Espinoza-Ríos, Jorge; Aguilar Sánchez, Victor; Bravo Paredes, Eduar Alban; Pinto Valdivia, José; Huerta-Mercado Tenorio, Jorge

2016-01-01

Identify the best score that predicts each variable outcome (mortality, rebleeding and need for transfusion for more than 2 red blood cells pack) in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding until 30 days of the event. Material y methods: Patients included were those over 18 years, who had upper gastrointestinal bleeding between January 2014 to June 2015 in a general hospital of third level. The data was analyzed by the area under the curve ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic). In total, there were 231 cases of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 154 (66.7%) cases were male, the average age was 57.8 ± 20.02 years, the most common cause of bleeding was peptic ulcer: 111 (48.1%) cases, the mortality rate and rebleeding was 7.8% and 3.9% respectively. 5 patients were excluded from the analysis because they do not count with endoscopy study, the analysis was performed in 226 rest. In the evaluation of mortality, it was found an area under the curve ROC for Glasgow-Blatchford: 0.73, Rockall score: 0.86 and AIMS65 score: 0.90 (p<0.05) to predict rebleeding the Glasgow-Blatchford score: 0.73 Rockall score: 0.66 and AIMS65 score: 0.64 (p=0.41) and transfusion requirements of more than 2 globular packages the Glasgow-Blatchford score: 0.72, Rockall score: 0.67 and AIMS65 score: 0.77 (p=0.09). AIMS65 score is a good predictor of mortality and is useful in predicting the need for more than 2 transfusions of red blood cells pack compared to score Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall score.

Patient-perceived outcome after sialendoscopy using the glasgow benefit inventory.

PubMed

Ianovski, Ilia; Morton, Randall P; Ahmad, Zahoor

2014-04-01

Sialendoscopy is a technique for investigating and managing obstructive salivary disease that avoids risks associated with the more invasive sialoadenectomy and other open surgery techniques. To date, surgeon-based outcomes have been reported, but only one report of patient-oriented outcomes has appeared in the literature. The objective of this study was to review our experience after introducing sialendoscopy to New Zealand and report the patient-perceived benefit. A prospective observational study of all sialendoscopic procedures performed in the only sialendoscopy-practicing center in New Zealand between June 2010 and June 2012. Clinical and epidemiological data of all patients were recorded. Sialendoscopic findings, complications, and outcomes were noted. The Glasgow Benefit Inventory questionnaire was administered to the patients at their follow-up. Fifty-four patients underwent a total of 66 sialendoscopic procedures, involving 44 parotid and 22 submandibular glands. There was a complete symptom resolution in 54 procedures (82%). Sialolith removal was successful in 67% of cases, with postsialendoscopy symptom resolution in 86% of sialolithiasis cases. Symptoms resolved in 81% of cases with ductal stenosis. The overall mean Glasgow Benefit Inventory score was +31, which compares very favorably with other otolaryngology procedures. This study shows a substantial positive patient-perceived benefit of sialendoscopy for both sialolith- and stenosis-based pathology. The overall rate of symptom resolution is comparable to international literature. 4. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Clinical Course Score (CCS): a new clinical score to evaluate efficacy of neurotrauma treatment in traumatic brain injury and subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Brandner, Sebastian; Kellermann, Isabel; Hore, Nirjhar; Bozhkov, Yavor; Buchfelder, Michael

2015-01-01

Neurotrauma continues to represent a challenging public health issue requiring continual improvement in therapeutic approaches. As no such current system exists, we present in this study the Clinical Course Score (CCS) as a new clinical score to evaluate the efficacy of neurotrauma treatment. The CCS was calculated in neurotrauma patients to be the difference between the grade of the Glasgow Outcome Scale 6 months after discharge from our department and the grade of a 1 to 5 point reduced Glasgow Coma Scale on admission. We assessed the CCS in a total of 248 patients (196 traumatic brain injury [TBI] patients and 52 subarachnoid hemorrhage [SAH] patients) who were treated in our Department of Neurosurgery between January 2011 and December 2012. We found negative CCS grades both in mild TBI and in mild SAH patients. In patients with severe TBI or SAH, we found positive CCS grades. In SAH patients, we found higher CCS scores in younger patients compared with elderly subjects in both mild and severe cases. The CCS can be useful in evaluating different therapeutic approaches during neurotrauma therapy. This new score might improve assessment of beneficial effects of therapeutic procedures.

Effect of Age on Glasgow Coma Scale in Patients with Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: An Approach with Propensity Score-Matched Population.

PubMed

Rau, Cheng-Shyuan; Wu, Shao-Chun; Chen, Yi-Chun; Chien, Peng-Chen; Hsieh, Hsiao-Yun; Kuo, Pao-Jen; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2017-11-13

Background: The most widely used methods of describing traumatic brain injury (TBI) are the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Recent evidence suggests that presenting GCS in older patients may be higher than that in younger patients for an equivalent anatomical severity of TBI. This study aimed to assess these observations with a propensity-score matching approach using the data from Trauma Registry System in a Level I trauma center. Methods: We included all adult patients (aged ≥20 years old) with moderate to severe TBI from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2016. Patients were categorized into elderly (aged ≥65 years) and young adults (aged 20-64 years). The severity of TBI was defined by an AIS score in the head (AIS 3‒4 and 5 indicate moderate and severe TBI, respectively). We examined the differences in the GCS scores by age at each head AIS score. Unpaired Student's t - and Mann-Whitney U -tests were used to analyze normally and non-normally distributed continuous data, respectively. Categorical data were compared using either the Pearson chi-square or two-sided Fisher's exact tests. Matched patient populations were allocated in a 1:1 ratio according to the propensity scores calculated using NCSS software with the following covariates: sex, pre-existing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, sodium, glucose, and alcohol level. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the effects of age on the GCS score in each head AIS stratum. Results: The study population included 2081 adult patients with moderate to severe TBI. These patients were categorized into elderly ( n = 847) and young adults ( n = 1234): each was exclusively further divided into three groups of patients with head AIS of 3, 4, or 5. In the 162 well-balanced pairs of TBI patients with head AIS of 3, the elderly demonstrated a significantly higher GCS score than the young adults (14.1 ± 2.2 vs. 13.1 ± 3.3, respectively; p = 0

The Glasgow Sensory Questionnaire: Validation of a French Language Version and Refinement of Sensory Profiles of People with High Autism-Spectrum Quotient

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sapey-Triomphe, Laurie-Anne; Moulin, Annie; Sonié, Sandrine; Schmitz, Christina

2018-01-01

Sensory sensitivity peculiarities represent an important characteristic of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). We first validated a French language version of the Glasgow Sensory Questionnaire (GSQ) (Robertson and Simmons in "J Autism Dev Disord" 43(4):775-784, 2013). The GSQ score was strongly positively correlated with the Autism-Spectrum…

[Predictive quality of the injury severity score in the systematic use of cranial MRI].

PubMed

Woischneck, D; Lerch, K; Kapapa, T; Skalej, M; Firsching, R

2010-09-01

The ABBREVIATED INJURY SCORE (AIS) for the head is mostly coded on the basis of cranial computed tomography (CT). It defines, to a large extent, the predictive potency of the INJURY SEVERITY SCORE (ISS). The present study investigates whether the predictive capacity of the ISS can be improved by the systematic use of data from cranial MRI. 167 patients, who had been in a coma for at least 24 hours following trauma, underwent an MRI examination within 8 days. All had been found to have an intracranial injury on initial CT. 49 % had also suffered extracranial injuries. The GLASGOW OUTCOME SCALE (GOS) was determined 6 months post trauma. AIS, ISS and GOS values were rated as ordinal measurements. A contingency table was used as the statistical method of analysis, with a significance assumed as p < 0.05 (Chi (2) test). The median ISS based on CT was 16 and did not correlate with the GOS. 63 % of the patients revealed brain stem lesions on MRI. If these were coded with an AIS of 5, the median ISS increased significantly to 29. Thus, the correlation to the GOS was now significant. At ISS scores of 5-9, 18 % of the patients died; at scores of 50-54 the rate of favourable treatment outcomes still amounted to 50 %. Since it is now known that brain stem lesions can also have a favourable prognosis, the AIS coding was modified and adapted to the mortality of the singular types of lesion. Hence the median ISS again decreased to 16. The correlation to the GOS was significant, and the predictive potency of the ISS further improved. The prognostic potency of the REVISED INJURY SEVERITY CLASSIFICATION (RISC) score was improved by use of adapted MRI data. If visible brain stem lesions on MRI were coded according to the AIS guidelines, there was a significant increase in the ISS which correlated significantly to the GOS. If the AIS coding was adjusted to the prognostic significance of individual brain stem lesions, there was a further improvement in the prognostic

Predictors of Outcome of Convulsive Status Epilepticus Among an Egyptian Pediatric Tertiary Hospital.

PubMed

Halawa, Eman F; Draz, Iman; Ahmed, Dalia; Shaheen, Hala A

2015-11-01

Convulsive status epilepticus is a common neurologic emergency in pediatrics. We aimed to study the etiology, clinical features, and prognostic factors among pediatric patients with convulsive status epilepticus. Seventy patients were included in this cohort study from pediatric emergency department of the specialized Children Hospital of Cairo University. The outcome was evaluated using the Glasgow Outcome Score. Acute symptomatic etiology was the most common cause of convulsive status epilepticus. Refractory convulsive status epilepticus was observed more significantly in cases caused by acute symptomatic etiologies. The outcome was mortality in 26 (37.1%) patients, severe disability in 15 (21.4%), moderate disability in 17 (24.3%), and good recovery in 12 (17.1%) patients. The significant predictor of mortality was lower modified Glasgow Coma Scale score on admission, whereas lower modified Glasgow Coma Scale score on admission and refractory convulsive status epilepticus were the significant predictors for disability and mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

Hypoglycorrhachia in adults with community-acquired meningitis: etiologies and prognostic significance.

PubMed

Shrikanth, Vandana; Salazar, Lucrecia; Khoury, Nabil; Wootton, Susan; Hasbun, Rodrigo

2015-10-01

Hypoglycorrhachia (cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) glucose <45 mg/dl) has been identified as a prognostic factor in patients with meningitis. The differential diagnosis of hypoglycorrhachia and its clinical significance was analyzed in the present study. This was a retrospective study of 620 adult patients with community-acquired meningitis (CSF white blood cell count >5 × 10(6) cells/l and absence of a CSF shunt or recent neurosurgical procedure (<1 month)) at eight Memorial Hermann hospitals in Houston, Texas, from January 2005 to December 2010. An adverse clinical outcome was defined as a Glasgow outcome scale score of ≤ 4. Out of 620 patients with meningitis, 116 (19%) had hypoglycorrhachia. Etiologies of hypoglycorrhachia were idiopathic (n=40), bacterial (n=27), cryptococcal (n=26), viral (n=15), and tuberculous (n=4). Patients with hypoglycorrhachia were more likely to be immunosuppressed, have a history of intravenous drug use, and present with a vesicular or petechial rash, nausea or vomiting, nuchal rigidity, sinusitis/otitis, abnormal mental status, and focal neurological deficits compared to those patients without hypoglycorrhachia (p<0.05). Additionally, patients in the hypoglycorrhachia group had significantly higher rates of positive CSF and blood cultures, urgent treatable conditions, and abnormal cranial imaging (p<0.05). Furthermore, patients with hypoglycorrhachia had more adverse clinical outcomes (26/116 (22.4%) vs. 45/504 (8.9%); p<0.001). Hypoglycorrhachia has significant clinical and prognostic value in the evaluation of adult patients with community-acquired meningitis. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Some new insights into the history of the Glasgow time ball and time guns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, David; Kinns, Roger

2012-03-01

The 1857 time ball machinery at the Glasgow Sailors' Home was supplied by Alexander McKenzie, mechanist, using a design that had much in common with the 1853 Edinburgh apparatus. It was operated using electrical connections to a mean time clock in the Home. This clock required adjustment by hand each day to compensate for its losing rate. Such manual intervention and lack of independent verification of accuracy under-mined the authority of the signal. The relative prestige of the Glasgow and Edinburgh Observatories was an important issue. There was no telegraphic link between Glasgow Observatory and the City until the end of 1863, but it had been demonstrated as early as October 1855 that a time ball could be dropped by telegraph from Edinburgh. Another Edinburgh initiative in September 1863 using time guns fired from Edinburgh caused offence in Glasgow and the trials were terminated in February 1864. Professor Grant, Director of Glasgow Observatory, argued successfully that a system of slave clocks controlled from Glasgow Observatory would be far superior to either a time ball or time guns which only provided a signal once per day. He won the debate in March 1864.

Prognostic significance of blood-brain barrier disruption in patients with severe nonpenetrating traumatic brain injury requiring decompressive craniectomy.

PubMed

Ho, Kwok M; Honeybul, Stephen; Yip, Cheng B; Silbert, Benjamin I

2014-09-01

The authors assessed the risk factors and outcomes associated with blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption in patients with severe, nonpenetrating, traumatic brain injury (TBI) requiring decompressive craniectomy. At 2 major neurotrauma centers in Western Australia, a retrospective cohort study was conducted among 97 adult neurotrauma patients who required an external ventricular drain (EVD) and decompressive craniectomy during 2004-2012. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were used to assess neurological outcomes. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with BBB disruption, defined by a ratio of total CSF protein concentrations to total plasma protein concentration > 0.007 in the earliest CSF specimen collected after TBI. Of the 252 patients who required decompressive craniectomy, 97 (39%) required an EVD to control intracranial pressure, and biochemical evidence of BBB disruption was observed in 43 (44%). Presence of disruption was associated with more severe TBI (median predicted risk for unfavorable outcome 75% vs 63%, respectively; p = 0.001) and with worse outcomes at 6, 12, and 18 months than was absence of BBB disruption (72% vs 37% unfavorable outcomes, respectively; p = 0.015). The only risk factor significantly associated with increased risk for BBB disruption was presence of nonevacuated intracerebral hematoma (> 1 cm diameter) (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.23-7.50; p = 0.016). Although BBB disruption was associated with more severe TBI and worse long-term outcomes, when combined with the prognostic information contained in the Corticosteroid Randomization after Significant Head Injury (CRASH) prognostic model, it did not seem to add significant prognostic value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.855 vs 0.864, respectively; p = 0.453). Biochemical evidence of BBB disruption after severe nonpenetrating TBI was common, especially among patients with large intracerebral hematomas. Disruption of the BBB was associated with more severe

The prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based prognostic scores and nutritional status for overall survival in resected patients with nonmetastatic Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction.

PubMed

Zhang, Lixiang; Su, Yezhou; Chen, Zhangming; Wei, Zhijian; Han, Wenxiu; Xu, Aman

2017-07-01

Immune and nutritional status of patients have been reported to predict postoperative complications, recurrence, and prognosis of patients with cancer. Therefore, this retrospective study aimed to explore the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based prognostic scores [neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR)] and nutritional status [prognostic nutritional index (PNI), body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin, albumin, and prealbumin] for overall survival (OS) in adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEG) patients. A total of 355 patients diagnosed with Siewert type II/III AEG and underwent surgery between October 2010 and December 2011 were followed up until October 2016. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the cutoff values of NLR, PLR, and PNI. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analyses were used to calculate the OS characteristics. The ideal cutoff values for predicting OS were 3.5 for NLR, 171 for PLR, and 51.3 for PNI according to the ROC curve. The patients with hemoglobin <120 g/L (P = .001), prealbumin <180 mg/L (P = .000), PNI <51.3 (P = .010), NLR >3.5 (P = .000), PLR >171 (P = .006), and low BMI group (P = .000) had shorter OS. And multivariate survival analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that the tumor-node-metastasis stage, BMI, NLR, and prealbumin levels were independent risk factors for the OS. Our study demonstrated that preoperative prealbumin, BMI, and NLR were independent prognostic factors of AEG patients.

Repeated Measurement of the Intermountain Risk Score Enhances Prognostication for Mortality

PubMed Central

Horne, Benjamin D.; Lappé, Donald L.; Muhlestein, Joseph B.; May, Heidi T.; Ronnow, Brianna S.; Brunisholz, Kimberly D.; Kfoury, Abdallah G.; Bunch, T. Jared; Alharethi, Rami; Budge, Deborah; Whisenant, Brian K.; Bair, Tami L.; Jensen, Kurt R.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Background The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS), composed of the complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic profile (BMP), predicts mortality and morbidity in medical and general populations. Whether longitudinal repeated measurement of IMRS is useful for prognostication is an important question for its clinical applicability. Methods Females (N = 5,698) and males (N = 5,437) with CBC and BMP panels measured 6 months to 2.0 years apart (mean 1.0 year) had baseline and follow-up IMRS computed. Survival analysis during 4.0±2.5 years (maximum 10 years) evaluated mortality (females: n = 1,255 deaths; males: n = 1,164 deaths) and incident major events (myocardial infarction, heart failure [HF], and stroke). Results Both baseline and follow-up IMRS (categorized as high-risk vs. low-risk) were independently associated with mortality (all p<0.001) in bivariable models. For females, follow-up IMRS had hazard ratio (HR) = 5.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.11, 6.64) and baseline IMRS had HR = 3.66 (CI = 2.94, 4.55). Among males, follow-up IMRS had HR = 4.28 (CI = 3.51, 5.22) and baseline IMRS had HR = 2.32 (CI = 1.91, 2.82). IMRS components such as RDW, measured at both time points, also predicted mortality. Baseline and follow-up IMRS strongly predicted incident HF in both genders. Conclusions Repeated measurement of IMRS at baseline and at about one year of follow-up were independently prognostic for mortality and incident HF among initially hospitalized patients. RDW and other CBC and BMP values were also predictive of outcomes. Further research should evaluate the utility of IMRS as a tool for clinical risk adjustment. PMID:23874899

A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro

2014-09-01

Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient-perceived benefit of sialendoscopy as measured by the Glasgow Benefit Inventory.

PubMed

Meier, Bue A; Holst, René; Schousboe, Lars P

2015-08-01

Evaluate the patient-perceived effect of sialendoscopy on patients with obstructive symptoms from the salivary glands. Retrospectively identified cohort used for a prospective study of all consecutive patients at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology at Vejle Hospital, Vejle, Denmark, March 2009 to December 2013. By chart review we recorded the patient's age, gender, date of the sialendoscopy, type of gland, sialolithiasis, successful extraction of sialolithiasis, stenosis of salivary ducts, dilation, type of saliva, and surgeon. The follow-up was done by applying the Glasgow Benefit Inventory questionnaire by letter and telephone. There were 130 sialendoscopies performed on 116 patients. Of these, 24 patients were excluded due to subsequent surgery. Thus, 92 patients were eligible, of whom 80 responded, giving an 87% response rate. The Glasgow Benefit Inventory score had a predicted overall mean of 13.4 (95% confidence interval: 9.9 to 17.2). Significant positive outcomes by multiple regression were the presence of stones (P = 0.015) and examination of the parotid gland (P = 0.041). Overall, there is a significant patient-perceived benefit from sialendoscopy, which is comparable to the benefit from tonsillectomy. The benefit is significantly higher if stones are found than not and for examination of the parotid gland as compared to the submandibular gland. 4 © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Prognostic and predictive value of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer on chemotherapy: a retrospective analysis of a randomised trial.

PubMed

Albain, Kathy S; Barlow, William E; Shak, Steven; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N; Livingston, Robert B; Yeh, I-Tien; Ravdin, Peter; Bugarini, Roberto; Baehner, Frederick L; Davidson, Nancy E; Sledge, George W; Winer, Eric P; Hudis, Clifford; Ingle, James N; Perez, Edith A; Pritchard, Kathleen I; Shepherd, Lois; Gralow, Julie R; Yoshizawa, Carl; Allred, D Craig; Osborne, C Kent; Hayes, Daniel F

2010-01-01

The 21-gene recurrence score assay is prognostic for women with node-negative, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer treated with tamoxifen. A low recurrence score predicts little benefit of chemotherapy. For node-positive breast cancer, we investigated whether the recurrence score was prognostic in women treated with tamoxifen alone and whether it identified those who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite higher risks of recurrence. The phase 3 trial SWOG-8814 for postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer showed that chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and fluorouracil (CAF) before tamoxifen (CAF-T) added survival benefit to treatment with tamoxifen alone. Optional tumour banking yielded specimens for determination of recurrence score by RT-PCR. In this retrospective analysis, we assessed the effect of recurrence score on disease-free survival by treatment group (tamoxifen vs CAF-T) using Cox regression, adjusting for number of positive nodes. There were 367 specimens (40% of the 927 patients in the tamoxifen and CAF-T groups) with sufficient RNA for analysis (tamoxifen, n=148; CAF-T, n=219). The recurrence score was prognostic in the tamoxifen-alone group (p=0.006; hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, 95% CI 1.33-5.27, for a 50-point difference in recurrence score). There was no benefit of CAF in patients with a low recurrence score (score <18; log-rank p=0.97; HR 1.02, 0.54-1.93), but an improvement in disease-free survival for those with a high recurrence score (score > or =31; log-rank p=0.033; HR 0.59, 0.35-1.01), after adjustment for number of positive nodes. The recurrence score by treatment interaction was significant in the first 5 years (p=0.029), with no additional prediction beyond 5 years (p=0.58), although the cumulative benefit remained at 10 years. Results were similar for overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival. The recurrence score is prognostic for tamoxifen

The Physical Tourist Physics in Glasgow: A Heritage Tour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, Sean F.

2006-12-01

I trace the history of the physical and applied sciences, and particularly physics, in Glasgow. Among the notable individuals I discuss are Joseph Black (1728 1799), James Watt (1736 1819), William John Macquorn Rankine (1820 1872), William Thomson, Lord Kelvin (1824 1907), John Kerr (1824 1907), Frederick Soddy (1877 1956), John Logie Baird (1888 1946), and Ian Donald (1910 1987), as well as physics-related businesses.The locations, centering on the city center and University of Glasgow, include sites both recognizable today and transformed from past usage, as well as museums and archives related to the history and interpretation of physics.

A pretest prognostic score to assess patients undergoing exercise or pharmacological stress testing.

PubMed

Morise, Anthony; Evans, Matthew; Jalisi, Farrukh; Shetty, Rajendra; Stauffer, Marc

2007-02-01

A previously developed pretest score was validated to stratify patients presenting for exercise testing with suspected coronary disease according to the presence of angiographic coronary disease. Our goal was to determine how well this pretest score risk stratified patients undergoing pharmacological and exercise stress tests concerning prognostic endpoints. Retrospective cohort analysis. University hospital stress laboratory. 7452 unselected ambulatory patients with symptoms of suspected coronary disease undergoing stress testing between 1995 and 2004. All-cause death, cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction. The rate of all-cause death was 5.5% (CI 5.0 to 6.1) with 4.3 (SD 2.4) years of follow-up (Exercise 2.8% (CI 2.3 to 3.2) v Pharmacological group 11.9% (CI 10.5 to 13.3); p<0.001). The rate of cardiac death/myocardial infarction was 2.6% (CI 2.2 to 3.0) (Exercise 1.4% (CI 1.1 to 1.8) v Pharmacological group 5.3% (CI 4.3 to 6.2); p<0.001). In both groups, stratification by pretest score was significant for all-cause death and the combined endpoint. However, stratification was more effective in the pharmacological group using the combined endpoint rather than all-cause death. Pharmacological stress patients in intermediate and high risk groups were at higher risk than their respective exercise test cohorts. Referral for pharmacological stress testing was found to be an independent predictor of time to death (2.7 (CI 2.0 to 3.6); p<0.001). A pretest score previously validated to stratify according to angiographic outcomes, effectively risk stratified pharmacological and exercise stress patients according to the combined endpoint of cardiac death/myocardial infarction.

Scoring Systems to Estimate Intracerebral Control and Survival Rates of Patients Irradiated for Brain Metastases;Brain metastases; Radiation therapy; Local control; Survival; Prognostic scores

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rades, Dirk, E-mail: Rades.Dirk@gmx.net; Dziggel, Liesa; Haatanen, Tiina

2011-07-15

Purpose: To create and validate scoring systems for intracerebral control (IC) and overall survival (OS) of patients irradiated for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: In this study, 1,797 patients were randomly assigned to the test (n = 1,198) or the validation group (n = 599). Two scoring systems were developed, one for IC and another for OS. The scores included prognostic factors found significant on multivariate analyses. Age, performance status, extracerebral metastases, interval tumor diagnosis to RT, and number of brain metastases were associated with OS. Tumor type, performance status, interval, and number of brain metastases were associated with IC.more » The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month IC or OS rate (given in percent) by 10. The total score represented the sum of the scores for each factor. The score groups of the test group were compared with the corresponding score groups of the validation group. Results: In the test group, 6-month IC rates were 17% for 14-18 points, 49% for 19-23 points, and 77% for 24-27 points (p < 0.0001). IC rates in the validation group were 19%, 52%, and 77%, respectively (p < 0.0001). In the test group, 6-month OS rates were 9% for 15-19 points, 41% for 20-25 points, and 78% for 26-30 points (p < 0.0001). OS rates in the validation group were 7%, 39%, and 79%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Patients irradiated for brain metastases can be given scores to estimate OS and IC. IC and OS rates of the validation group were similar to the test group demonstrating the validity and reproducibility of both scores.« less

Prognostic and predictive implications of Sokal, Euro and EUTOS scores in chronic myeloid leukaemia in the imatinib era-experience from a tertiary oncology centre in Southern India.

PubMed

Kuntegowdanahalli, Lakshmaiah Chinnagiriyappa; Kanakasetty, Govind Babu; Thanky, Aditi Harsh; Dasappa, Lokanatha; Jacob, Linu Abraham; Mallekavu, Suresh Babu; Lakkavalli, Rajeev Krishnappa; Kadabur, Lokesh N; Haleshappa, Rudresha Antapura

2016-01-01

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is a myeloproliferative disorder. Over the years many prognostic models have been developed to better risk stratify this disease at baseline. Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores were developed in varied populations initially receiving various therapies. Here we try to identify their predictive and prognostic implication in a larger population of Indian patients with CML-CP (chronic phase) in the imatinib era.

The inter-rater reliability and prognostic value of coma scales in Nepali children with acute encephalitis syndrome.

PubMed

Ray, Stephen; Rayamajhi, Ajit; Bonnett, Laura J; Solomon, Tom; Kneen, Rachel; Griffiths, Michael J

2018-02-01

Background Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) is a common cause of coma in Nepali children. The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is used to assess the level of coma in these patients and predict outcome. Alternative coma scales may have better inter-rater reliability and prognostic value in encephalitis in Nepali children, but this has not been studied. The Adelaide coma scale (ACS), Blantyre coma scale (BCS) and the Alert, Verbal, Pain, Unresponsive scale (AVPU) are alternatives to the GCS which can be used. Methods Children aged 1-14 years who presented to Kanti Children's Hospital, Kathmandu with AES between September 2010 and November 2011 were recruited. All four coma scales (GCS, ACS, BCS and AVPU) were applied on admission, 48 h later and on discharge. Inter-rater reliability (unweighted kappa) was measured for each. Correlation and agreement between total coma score and outcome (Liverpool outcome score) was measured by Spearman's rank and Bland-Altman plot. The prognostic value of coma scales alone and in combination with physiological variables was investigated in a subgroup (n = 22). A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted by backward stepwise. Results Fifty children were recruited. Inter-rater reliability using the variables scales was fair to moderate. However, the scales poorly predicted clinical outcome. Combining the scales with physiological parameters such as systolic blood pressure improved outcome prediction. Conclusion This is the first study to compare four coma scales in Nepali children with AES. The scales exhibited fair to moderate inter-rater reliability. However, the study is inadequately powered to answer the question on the relationship between coma scales and outcome. Further larger studies are required.

Does the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale Add Value to the Conventional Glasgow Outcome Scale?

PubMed Central

Weir, James; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Butcher, Isabella; Lu, Juan; Lingsma, Hester F.; McHugh, Gillian S.; Roozenbeek, Bob; Maas, Andrew I.R.

2012-01-01

Abstract The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) is firmly established as the primary outcome measure for use in Phase III trials of interventions in traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, the GOS has been criticized for its lack of sensitivity to detect small but clinically relevant changes in outcome. The Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) potentially addresses this criticism, and in this study we estimate the efficiency gain associated with using the GOSE in place of the GOS in ordinal analysis of 6-month outcome. The study uses both simulation and the reanalysis of existing data from two completed TBI studies, one an observational cohort study and the other a randomized controlled trial. As expected, the results show that using an ordinal technique to analyze the GOS gives a substantial gain in efficiency relative to the conventional analysis, which collapses the GOS onto a binary scale (favorable versus unfavorable outcome). We also found that using the GOSE gave a modest but consistent increase in efficiency relative to the GOS in both studies, corresponding to a reduction in the required sample size of the order of 3–5%. We recommend that the GOSE be used in place of the GOS as the primary outcome measure in trials of TBI, with an appropriate ordinal approach being taken to the statistical analysis. PMID:22026476

Does the extended Glasgow Outcome Scale add value to the conventional Glasgow Outcome Scale?

PubMed

Weir, James; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Butcher, Isabella; Lu, Juan; Lingsma, Hester F; McHugh, Gillian S; Roozenbeek, Bob; Maas, Andrew I R; Murray, Gordon D

2012-01-01

The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) is firmly established as the primary outcome measure for use in Phase III trials of interventions in traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, the GOS has been criticized for its lack of sensitivity to detect small but clinically relevant changes in outcome. The Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) potentially addresses this criticism, and in this study we estimate the efficiency gain associated with using the GOSE in place of the GOS in ordinal analysis of 6-month outcome. The study uses both simulation and the reanalysis of existing data from two completed TBI studies, one an observational cohort study and the other a randomized controlled trial. As expected, the results show that using an ordinal technique to analyze the GOS gives a substantial gain in efficiency relative to the conventional analysis, which collapses the GOS onto a binary scale (favorable versus unfavorable outcome). We also found that using the GOSE gave a modest but consistent increase in efficiency relative to the GOS in both studies, corresponding to a reduction in the required sample size of the order of 3-5%. We recommend that the GOSE be used in place of the GOS as the primary outcome measure in trials of TBI, with an appropriate ordinal approach being taken to the statistical analysis.

Re-irradiation of recurrent gliomas: pooled analysis and validation of an established prognostic score-report of the Radiation Oncology Group (ROG) of the German Cancer Consortium (DKTK).

PubMed

Combs, Stephanie E; Niyazi, Maximilian; Adeberg, Sebastian; Bougatf, Nina; Kaul, David; Fleischmann, Daniel F; Gruen, Arne; Fokas, Emmanouil; Rödel, Claus M; Eckert, Franziska; Paulsen, Frank; Oehlke, Oliver; Grosu, Anca-Ligia; Seidlitz, Annekatrin; Lattermann, Annika; Krause, Mechthild; Baumann, Michael; Guberina, Maja; Stuschke, Martin; Budach, Volker; Belka, Claus; Debus, Jürgen; Kessel, Kerstin A

2018-05-01

The heterogeneity of high-grade glioma recurrences remains an ongoing challenge for the interdisciplinary neurooncology team. Response to re-irradiation (re-RT) is heterogeneous, and survival data depend on prognostic factors such as tumor volume, primary histology, age, the possibility of reresection, or time between primary diagnosis and initial RT and re-RT. In the present pooled analysis, we gathered data from radiooncology centers of the DKTK Consortium and used it to validate the established prognostic score by Combs et al. and its modification by Kessel et al. Data consisted of a large independent, multicenter cohort of 565 high-grade glioma patients treated with re-RT from 1997 to 2016 and a median dose of 36 Gy. Primary RT was between 1986 and 2015 with a median dose of 60 Gy. Median age was 54 years; median follow-up was 7.1 months. Median OS after re-RT was 7.5, 9.5, and 13.8 months for WHO IV, III, and I/II gliomas, respectively. All six prognostic factors were tested for their significance on OS. Aside from the time from primary RT to re-RT (P = 0.074) and the reresection status (P = 0.101), all factors (primary histology, age, KPS, and tumor volume) were significant. Both the original and new score showed a highly significant influence on survival with P < 0.001. Both prognostic scores successfully predict survival after re-RT and can easily be applied in the routine clinical workflow. Now, further prognostic features need to be found to even improve treatment decisions regarding neurooncological interventions for recurrent glioma patients. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Overview of different scoring systems in Fournier’s Gangrene and assessment of prognostic factors

PubMed Central

Doluoğlu, Ömer Gökhan; Karagöz, Mehmet Ali; Kılınç, Muhammet Fatih; Karakan, Tolga; Yücetürk, Cem Nedim; Sarıcı, Haşmet; Özgür, Berat Cem; Eroğlu, Muzaffer

2016-01-01

Objective In this study we aimed to evaluate prognostic factors for the survival of patients with Fournier’s gangrene (FG), and overview different validated scoring systems for outcome prediction. Material and methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 39 patients treated for FG in our clinic. Data were collected on medical history, symptoms, physical examination findings, vital signs, laboratory parameters at admission and at the end of treatment, timing and extent of surgical debridement, and the antibiotic treatment used. The Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used to predict outcome. The data were analyzed in relation with the survival of the patients. Mann-Whitney U test, chi -square test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and Cox regression analysis were used for the statistical analysis. Results Of 39 patients analyzed, 8 (20.5%) died and 31 (79.5%) survived. The median FGSI score on admission was 2 (0–9) for the survivors and 6 (2–14) for the non-survivors (p=0.004). The median CCI scores of the survivors and non-survivors were 2 (0–10) and 6.5 (5–11), respectively (p=0.001). Except for urea, albumin and hematocrit levels, no significant differences were found between survivors and non-survivors for other laboratory parameters on admission. Lower albumin levels and advanced age were found to be associated with mortality. Conclusion High blood urea, low albumin, and low hematocrit levels were associated with poor prognosis. High CCI and FGSI scores could be associated with a poor prognosis in patients with FG. PMID:27635295

A pretest prognostic score to assess patients undergoing exercise or pharmacological stress testing

PubMed Central

Morise, Anthony; Evans, Matthew; Jalisi, Farrukh; Shetty, Rajendra; Stauffer, Marc

2007-01-01

Objective A previously developed pretest score was validated to stratify patients presenting for exercise testing with suspected coronary disease according to the presence of angiographic coronary disease. Our goal was to determine how well this pretest score risk stratified patients undergoing pharmacological and exercise stress tests concerning prognostic endpoints. Design Retrospective cohort analysis. Setting University hospital stress laboratory. Patients 7452 unselected ambulatory patients with symptoms of suspected coronary disease undergoing stress testing between 1995 and 2004. Main outcomes measures All‐cause death, cardiac death and non‐fatal myocardial infarction. Results The rate of all‐cause death was 5.5% (CI 5.0 to 6.1) with 4.3 (SD 2.4) years of follow‐up (Exercise 2.8% (CI 2.3 to 3.2) v Pharmacological group 11.9% (CI 10.5 to 13.3); p<0.001). The rate of cardiac death/myocardial infarction was 2.6% (CI 2.2 to 3.0) (Exercise 1.4% (CI 1.1 to 1.8) v Pharmacological group 5.3% (CI 4.3 to 6.2); p<0.001). In both groups, stratification by pretest score was significant for all‐cause death and the combined endpoint. However, stratification was more effective in the pharmacological group using the combined endpoint rather than all‐cause death. Pharmacological stress patients in intermediate and high risk groups were at higher risk than their respective exercise test cohorts. Referral for pharmacological stress testing was found to be an independent predictor of time to death (2.7 (CI 2.0 to 3.6); p<0.001). Conclusion A pretest score previously validated to stratify according to angiographic outcomes, effectively risk stratified pharmacological and exercise stress patients according to the combined endpoint of cardiac death/myocardial infarction. PMID:17228070

History, politics and vulnerability: explaining excess mortality in Scotland and Glasgow.

PubMed

Walsh, D; McCartney, G; Collins, C; Taulbut, M; Batty, G D

2017-10-01

High levels of excess mortality (i.e. that not explained by deprivation) have been observed for Scotland compared with England & Wales, and especially for Glasgow in comparison with similar post-industrial cities such as Liverpool and Manchester. Many potential explanations have been suggested. Based on an assessment of these, the aim was to develop an understanding of the most likely underlying causes. Note that this paper distils a larger research report, with the aim of reaching wider audiences beyond Scotland, as the important lessons learnt are relevant to other populations. Review and dialectical synthesis of evidence. Forty hypotheses were examined, including those identified from a systematic review. The relevance of each was assessed by means of Bradford Hill's criteria for causality alongside-for hypotheses deemed causally linked to mortality-comparisons of exposures between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, and between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. Where gaps in the evidence base were identified, new research was undertaken. Causal chains of relevant hypotheses were created, each tested in terms of its ability to explain the many different aspects of excess mortality. The models were further tested with key informants from public health and other disciplines. In Glasgow's case, the city was made more vulnerable to important socioeconomic (deprivation, deindustrialisation) and political (detrimental economic and social policies) exposures, resulting in worse outcomes. This vulnerability was generated by a series of historical factors, processes and decisions: the lagged effects of historical overcrowding; post-war regional policy including the socially selective relocation of population to outside the city; more detrimental processes of urban change which impacted on living conditions; and differences in local government responses to UK government policy in the 1980s which both impacted in negative terms in Glasgow and also conferred protective

MIS Score: Prediction Model for Minimally Invasive Surgery.

PubMed

Hu, Yuanyuan; Cao, Jingwei; Hou, Xianzeng; Liu, Guangcun

2017-03-01

Reports suggest that patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) can benefit from minimally invasive surgery, but the inclusion criterion for operation is controversial. This article analyzes factors affecting the 30-day prognoses of patients who have received minimally invasive surgery and proposes a simple grading scale that represents clinical operation effectiveness. The records of 101 patients with spontaneous ICH presenting to Qianfoshan Hospital were reviewed. Factors affecting their 30-day prognosis were identified by logistic regression. A clinical grading scale, the MIS score, was developed by weighting the independent predictors based on these factors. Univariate analysis revealed that the factors that affect 30-day prognosis include Glasgow coma scale score (P < 0.01), age ≥80 years (P < 0.05), blood glucose (P < 0.01), ICH volume (P < 0.01), operation time (P < 0.05), and presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (P < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that the factors that affect 30-day prognosis include Glasgow coma scale score (P < 0.05), age (P < 0.05), ICH volume (P < 0.01), and presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (P < 0.05). The MIS score was developed accordingly; 39 patients with 0-1 MIS scores had favorable prognoses, whereas only 9 patients with 2-5 MIS scores had poor prognoses. The MIS score is a simple grading scale that can be used to select patients who are suited for minimal invasive drainage surgery. When MIS score is 0-1, minimal invasive surgery is strongly recommended for patients with spontaneous cerebral hemorrhage. The scale merits further prospective studies to fully determine its efficacy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trigger Happy: The Troubling Trend of Primary School Closures in Glasgow City Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koch, Joshua F.

2010-01-01

This paper examines the continuing trend of school closures in Glasgow, Scotland. Particular attention will be paid to Stonedyke Primary School, which Glasgow City Council was proposing to close at the time of this research. Current statistical data and research is used to better examine the current crisis Stonedyke Primary faces. Furthermore,…

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

Fat and neurosurgery: does obesity affect outcome after intracranial surgery?

PubMed

Schultheiss, Kim E; Jang, Yeon Gyoe; Yanowitch, Rachel N; Tolentino, Jocelyn; Curry, Daniel J; Lüders, Jürgen; Asgarzadie-Gadim, Farbod; Macdonald, R Loch

2009-02-01

Obesity has been linked to increased morbidity and mortality after some surgical procedures. The purpose of this study was to determine whether obesity affects outcome after general neurosurgery and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Three data sets were analyzed, including a retrospective review of 404 patients undergoing cranial and spinal neurosurgical procedures, a prospective collection of 100 patients with aneurysmal SAH, and data from 3567 patients with aneurysmal SAH who were entered into randomized clinical trials of tirilazad. For each data set, outcome was assessed by mortality, postoperative morbidity, and Glasgow Outcome Scale score. Prognostic factors, including body weight and body mass index, were tested for their effect on these outcomes using multivariable logistic regression. For patients undergoing general cranial and spinal neurosurgery, independent predictors of morbidity and mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesia class, disseminated malignancy, emergency surgery, and increased duration of surgery. For patients with SAH, score on the Glasgow Outcome Scale was associated with age and admission Glasgow Coma Scale score. In the tirilazad data set, multiple factors were associated with score on the Glasgow Outcome Scale, but, as with the other 2 data sets, body weight had no relationship to outcome. Obesity may have less effect on the outcome of patients with mainly cranial neurosurgical disease and aneurysmal SAH than it does on patients undergoing other types of surgery.

Improvement in GOS and GOSE scores 6 and 12 months after severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Corral, Luisa; Ventura, José Luis; Herrero, José Ignacio; Monfort, Jose Luis; Juncadella, Montserrat; Gabarrós, Andreu; Bartolomé, Carlos; Javierre, Casimiro F; García-Huete, Lucía

2007-11-01

To assess improvements in Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and GOS extended (GOSE) scores between 6 months and 1 year following severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). One studied 214 adult patients with severe TBI with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) <9 admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU). GOS scores were obtained 6 and 12 months after injury in 195 subjects. Patients were predominantly male (84%) and median age was 35 years. Outcome (GOS and GOSE at 6 months and 1 year) was better in the high GCS score at admission (6-8) group than in the low score group (3-5). The improvement in GOS scores between 6 months and 1 year was greater in the high GCS score at admission group than in the low score group. At 6 months, 75 patients had died and 120 survived. None died between the 6-12-month assessments; at 12 months, 36% had improved GOS score. GOS scores improved between 6-12 months after severe TBI in 36% of survivors and it is concluded that the expectancy of improvement is incomplete at 6 months. This improvement was greater in patients with better GCS scores (6-8) at admission than in those with worse GCS scores (3-5).

Prognostic Indexes for Brain Metastases: Which Is the Most Powerful?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arruda Viani, Gustavo, E-mail: gusviani@gmail.com; Bernardes da Silva, Lucas Godoi; Stefano, Eduardo Jose

Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to compare the prognostic indexes (PIs) of patients with brain metastases (BMs) treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) using an artificial neural network. This analysis is important, because it evaluates the prognostic power of each PI to guide clinical decision-making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A retrospective prognostic study was conducted of 412 patients with BMs who underwent WBRT between April 1998 and March 2010. The eligibility criteria for patients included having undergone WBRT or WBRT plus neurosurgery. The data were analyzed using the artificial neural network. The input neural datamore » consisted of all prognostic factors included in the 5 PIs (recursive partitioning analysis, graded prognostic assessment [GPA], basic score for BMs, Rotterdam score, and Germany score). The data set was randomly divided into 300 training and 112 testing examples for survival prediction. All 5 PIs were compared using our database of 412 patients with BMs. The sensibility of the 5 indexes to predict survival according to their input variables was determined statistically using receiver operating characteristic curves. The importance of each variable from each PI was subsequently evaluated. Results: The overall 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rate was 22%, 10.2%, and 5.1%, respectively. All classes of PIs were significantly associated with survival (recursive partitioning analysis, P < .0001; GPA, P < .0001; basic score for BMs, P = .002; Rotterdam score, P = .001; and Germany score, P < .0001). Comparing the areas under the curves, the GPA was statistically most sensitive in predicting survival (GPA, 86%; recursive partitioning analysis, 81%; basic score for BMs, 79%; Rotterdam, 73%; and Germany score, 77%; P < .001). Among the variables included in each PI, the performance status and presence of extracranial metastases were the most important factors. Conclusion: A variety of prognostic models describe

Prognostic value of Child-Turcotte criteria in medically treated cirrhosis.

PubMed

Christensen, E; Schlichting, P; Fauerholdt, L; Gluud, C; Andersen, P K; Juhl, E; Poulsen, H; Tygstrup, N

1984-01-01

The Child- Turcotte criteria (CTC) (based on serum bilirubin and albumin, ascites, neurological disorder and nutrition) are established prognostic factors in patients with cirrhosis having portacaval shunt surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of CTC in conservatively treated cirrhosis. Patients (n = 245) with histologically verified cirrhosis from a control group of a controlled clinical trial were studied. Data at entry into the trial were used to classify patients according to CTC. Survival curves for up to 16 years were made, and survival rates were compared using the log-rank test. Survival decreased significantly with increasing degree of abnormality (A----B----C) of albumin (p less than 0.001), ascites (p less than 0.001), bilirubin (p = 0.02) and nutritional status (p = 0.03). Survival was insignificantly influenced by neurological status (p = 0.11) probably because none of the patients had hepatic coma at entry into the trial. The five variables in CTC were combined to a score. With increasing score, the median survival time decreased from 6.4 years (score 5) to 2 months (scores 12 or more). Furthermore, the mortality from hepatic failure, gastrointestinal bleeding or hepatocellular carcinoma increased significantly with increasing score. CTC provide valuable and easily obtainable prognostic information in cirrhosis. However, CTC are inferior to a prognostic index based on multivariate analysis of prognostic factors.

Preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality and validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score and Hardman index in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PubMed

Kurc, Erol; Sanioglu, Soner; Ozgen, Ayca; Aka, Serap Aykut; Yekeler, Ibrahim

2012-06-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) and Hardman index in patients operated on because of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA), and determining preoperative risk factors that affect in-hospital mortality. One hundred one patients operated on to repair a rAAA within the last 10 years were included. The GAS and Hardman index were calculated for each patient separately. The relation between in-hospital mortality and the Hardman index and GAS was analyzed by means of the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Univariate and multivariate methods of analyses were used to determine preoperative risk factors. Average age was 69 ± 8, and in-hospital mortality rate was 51.5%. Analysis of the ROC curve showed that the Hardman index had an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.593-0.800, P = 0.0002) for predicting in-hospital mortality. The GAS had an AUC = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.680-0.851, P < 0.0001). The results of multivariate analysis revealed the presence of the following preoperative risk factors: age more than 63 years (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% CI, 1.17-16.49, P = 0.028); loss of consciousness (OR, 9.33; 95% CI, 1.94-44.86, P = 0.005); creatinine higher than 1.7 mg/dL (OR, 5.52; 95% CI, 1.92-15.85, P = 0.001); and pH lower than 7.31 (OR, 3.77; 95% CI, 1.18-11.99, P = 0.024). In conclusion, the Hardman index and GAS have a significant correlation with in-hospital mortality rates. Nevertheless, a high score does not necessarily correspond with a definite mortality. This is why scoring systems could not be considered as the sole criterion for choosing patients for this study. Clinical experience was still the leading factor in deciding against or in favor of surgery.

[Diagnostic value of integral scoring systems in assessing the severity of acute pancreatitis and patient's condition].

PubMed

Vinnik, Y S; Dunaevskaya, S S; Antufrieva, D A

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of specific and nonspecific scoring systems Tolstoy-Krasnogorov score, Ranson, BISAP, Glasgow, MODS 2, APACHE II and CTSI, which used at urgent pancreatology for estimation the severity of acute pancreatitis and status of patient. 1550 case reports of patients which had inpatient surgical treatment at Road clinical hospital at the station Krasnoyarsk from 2009 till 2013 were analyzed. Diagnosis of severe acute pancreatitis and its complications were determined based on anamnestic data, physical exami- nation, clinical indexes, ultrasonic examination and computed tomography angiography. Specific and nonspecific scores (scoring system of estimation by Tolstoy-Krasnogorov, Ranson, Glasgow, BISAP, MODS 2, APACHE II, CTSI) were used for estimation the severity of acute pancreatitis and patient's general condition. Effectiveness of these scoring systems was determined based on some parameters: accuracy (Ac), sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Most valuables score for estimation of acute pancreatitis's severity is BISAP (Se--98.10%), for estimation of organ failure--MODS 2 (Sp--100%, PPV--100%) and APACHE II (Sp--100%, PPV--100%), for detection of pancreatonecrosis sings--CTSI (Sp--100%, NPV--100%), for estimation of need for intensive care--MODS 2 (Sp--100%, PPV--100%, NPV--96.29%) and APACHE II (Sp--100%, PPV--100%, NPV--97.21%), for prediction of lethality--MODS 2 (Se-- 100%, Sp--98.14%, NPV--100%) and APACHE II (Se--95.00%, NPV-.99.86%). Most effective scores for estimation of acute pancreatitis's severity are Score of estimation by Tolstoy-Krasnogorov, Ranson, Glasgow and BISAP Scoring systems MODS 2, APACHE I high specificity and positive predictive value allow using it at clinical practice.

Are prognostic scores and biomarkers such as procalcitonin the appropriate prognostic precursors for elderly patients with sepsis in the emergency department?

PubMed

Lee, Woon Jeong; Woo, Seon Hee; Kim, Dae Hee; Seol, Seung Hwan; Park, Si Kyung; Choi, Seung Pill; Jekarl, Dong Wook; Lee, Seung Ok

2016-10-01

The mortality of patients with severe sepsis and septic shock is still high, and the prognosis of elderly patients tends to be particularly poor. Therefore, this study sought to conduct a comparative analysis of the abbreviated mortality in emergency department sepsis (abbMEDS) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, infection probability score (IPS), initial procalcitonin (PCT), and cytokine levels to investigate the effectiveness of each index in predicting the prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis in the emergency department (ED). This was a single-center prospective study, and classified 55 patients (≥65 years of age) with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) from January 2013 to December 2013 in the ED. A total of 36 elderly patients were diagnosed with sepsis. The prediction of prognosis using the prognostic scores (abbMEDS, SOFA, IPS) was analyzed. An early blood examination (WBC count, C-reactive protein, PCT, and cytokines) was conducted within the first 2 h of the patient's arrival at the ED. The median (IQR) age of subjects was 76.5 (70.5-81.5). After 28 days, 27 subjects (75 %) had survived, and 9 (25 %) had died. Fifteen (41.7 %) were sent to intensive care units (ICUs). The SOFA score and abbMEDS showed higher median (IQR) values of 9.5 (7.0-11.0) and 13.5 (12.0-15.0), respectively, in the ICU group than in the general ward group (p < 0.001). Analysis of the levels of PCT, IL-10, IL-6, and IL-5 had a significantly better ability to predict ICU admission (p = 0.001, p = 0.023, p = 0.030, p = 0.001). The prediction of mortality in the first 28 days via SOFA and the abbMEDS resulted in scores of 11.0 (8.0-11.0) and 14.0 (12.5-15.5) (p = 0.004, p = 0.003), respectively. However, levels of IPS, PCT, and cytokines did not show significant differences. In predicting ICU admission and the death of elderly sepsis patients in ED, SOFA and abbMEDS scores were effective. Of the various biomarkers, PCT, IL-10

Glasgow Coma Scale and Its Components on Admission: Are They Valuable Prognostic Tools in Acute Mixed Drug Poisoning?

PubMed Central

Eizadi Mood, N.; Sabzghabaee, A. M.; Yadegarfar, Gh.; Yaraghi, A.; Ramazani Chaleshtori, M.

2011-01-01

Introduction. The verbal, eye, and motor components of Glasgow coma scale (GCS) may be influenced by poisoned patients' behavior in an attempted suicide. So, the values of admission GCS and its components for outcomes prediction in mixed drugs poisoning were investigated. Materials and Methods. A followup study data was performed on patients with mixed drugs poisoning. Outcomes were recorded as without complications and with complications. Discrimination was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Results. There was a significant difference between the mean value of each component of GCS as well as the total GCS between patients with and without complication. Discrimination was best for GCS (AUC: 0.933 ± 0.020) and verbal (0.932 ± 0.021), followed by motor (0.911 ± 0.025), then eye (0.89 ± 0.028). Conclusions. Admission GCS and its components seem to be valuable in outcome prediction of patients with mixed drug poisoning. PMID:21559299

Outcome and prognostic factors of malaria-associated acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis: A single center experience

PubMed Central

Kute, V. B.; Shah, P. R.; Munjappa, B. C.; Gumber, M. R.; Patel, H. V.; Jain, S. H.; Engineer, D. P.; Naresh, V. V. Sai; Vanikar, A. V.; Trivedi, H. L.

2012-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most dreaded complications of severe malaria. We carried out prospective study in 2010, to describe clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, prognostic factors, and outcome in 59 (44 males, 15 females) smear-positive malaria patients with AKI. The severity of illness was assessed using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores. All patients received artesunate and hemodialysis (HD). Mean age of patients was 33.63 ± 14 years. Plasmodium falciparum malaria was seen in 76.3% (n = 45), Plasmodium vivax in 16.9% (n = 10), and mixed infection in 6.8% (n = 4) patients. Presenting clinical features were fever (100%), nausea-vomiting (85%), oliguria (61%), abdominal pain/tenderness (50.8%), and jaundice (74.5%). Mean APACHE II, SOFA, MODS, and GCS scores were 18.1 ± 3, 10.16 ± 3.09, 9.71 ± 2.69, and 14.15 ± 1.67, respectively, all were higher among patients who died than among those who survived. APACHE II ≥20, SOFA and MODS scores ≥12 were associated with higher mortality (P < 0.05). 34% patients received blood component transfusion and exchange transfusion was done in 15%. Mean number of HD sessions required was 4.59 ± 3.03. Renal biopsies were performed in five patients (three with patchy cortical necrosis and two with acute tubular necrosis). 81.3% of patients had complete renal recovery and 11.8% succumbed to malaria. Prompt diagnosis, timely HD, and supportive therapy were associated with improved survival and recovery of kidney functions in malarial with AKI. Mortality was associated with higher APACHE II, SOFA, MODS, GCS scores, requirement of inotrope, and ventilator support. PMID:22279340

The medical collections at the University of Glasgow.

PubMed

Reilly, Maggie; McDonald, Stuart W

2009-01-01

The medical and other collections in the University of Glasgow have at their core the generous bequest of Dr William Hunter (1718 - 1783), a local man who rose to become an internationally renowned anatomist and obstetrician. The University does not have a Medical Museum as such but an Anatomy Museum, a Zoology Museum, a Pathology Collection, medical displays in the main halls of the Hunterian Museum in the Gilbert Scott Building and a rich collection of antiquarian medical books and archives as well as contemporary libraries. The Hunterian Collection, since its inauguration at the University of Glasgow in 1807, has engendered a spirit of diversity and scholarship that embraces many disciplines across the campus. The Hunterian Museum was the first public museum in Scotland and service to the local, national and international communities and response to their academic needs is very much at heart of its function today.

Prediction of Outcome after Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: External Validation of the IMPACT and CRASH Prognostic Models

PubMed Central

Roozenbeek, Bob; Lingsma, Hester F.; Lecky, Fiona E.; Lu, Juan; Weir, James; Butcher, Isabella; McHugh, Gillian S.; Murray, Gordon D.; Perel, Pablo; Maas, Andrew I.R.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2012-01-01

Objective The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models predict outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) but have not been compared in large datasets. The objective of this is study is to validate externally and compare the IMPACT and CRASH prognostic models for prediction of outcome after moderate or severe TBI. Design External validation study. Patients We considered 5 new datasets with a total of 9036 patients, comprising three randomized trials and two observational series, containing prospectively collected individual TBI patient data. Measurements Outcomes were mortality and unfavourable outcome, based on the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) at six months after injury. To assess performance, we studied the discrimination of the models (by AUCs), and calibration (by comparison of the mean observed to predicted outcomes and calibration slopes). Main Results The highest discrimination was found in the TARN trauma registry (AUCs between 0.83 and 0.87), and the lowest discrimination in the Pharmos trial (AUCs between 0.65 and 0.71). Although differences in predictor effects between development and validation populations were found (calibration slopes varying between 0.58 and 1.53), the differences in discrimination were largely explained by differences in case-mix in the validation studies. Calibration was good, the fraction of observed outcomes generally agreed well with the mean predicted outcome. No meaningful differences were noted in performance between the IMPACT and CRASH models. More complex models discriminated slightly better than simpler variants. Conclusions Since both the IMPACT and the CRASH prognostic models show good generalizability to more recent data, they are valid instruments to quantify prognosis in TBI. PMID:22511138

Evaluation of scoring models for identifying the need for therapeutic intervention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A new prediction score model for Japanese patients.

PubMed

Iino, Chikara; Mikami, Tatsuya; Igarashi, Takasato; Aihara, Tomoyuki; Ishii, Kentaro; Sakamoto, Jyuichi; Tono, Hiroshi; Fukuda, Shinsaku

2016-11-01

Multiple scoring systems have been developed to predict outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We determined how well these and a newly established scoring model predict the need for therapeutic intervention, excluding transfusion, in Japanese patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We reviewed data from 212 consecutive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients requiring endoscopic intervention, operation, or interventional radiology were allocated to the therapeutic intervention group. Firstly, we compared areas under the curve for the Glasgow-Blatchford, Clinical Rockall, and AIMS65 scores. Secondly, the scores and factors likely associated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding were analyzed with a logistic regression analysis to form a new scoring model. Thirdly, the new model and the existing model were investigated to evaluate their usefulness. Therapeutic intervention was required in 109 patients (51.4%). The Glasgow-Blatchford score was superior to both the Clinical Rockall and AIMS65 scores for predicting therapeutic intervention need (area under the curve, 0.75 [95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.81] vs 0.53 [0.46-0.61] and 0.52 [0.44-0.60], respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis retained seven significant predictors in the model: systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg, syncope, hematemesis, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, blood urea nitrogen ≥22.4 mg/dL, estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤ 60 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 , and antiplatelet medication. Based on these variables, we established a new scoring model with superior discrimination to those of existing scoring systems (area under the curve, 0.85 [0.80-0.90]). We developed a superior scoring model for identifying therapeutic intervention need in Japanese patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. © 2016 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

Prognostic indices for early mortality in ischaemic stroke - meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mattishent, K; Kwok, C S; Mahtani, A; Pelpola, K; Myint, P K; Loke, Y K

2016-01-01

Several models have been developed to predict mortality in ischaemic stroke. We aimed to evaluate systematically the performance of published stroke prognostic scores. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE in February 2014 for prognostic models (published between 2003 and 2014) used in predicting early mortality (<6 months) after ischaemic stroke. We evaluated discriminant ability of the tools through meta-analysis of the area under the curve receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) or c-statistic. We evaluated the following components of study validity: collection of prognostic variables, neuroimaging, treatment pathways and missing data. We identified 18 articles (involving 163 240 patients) reporting on the performance of prognostic models for mortality in ischaemic stroke, with 15 articles providing AUC for meta-analysis. Most studies were either retrospective, or post hoc analyses of prospectively collected data; all but three reported validation data. The iSCORE had the largest number of validation cohorts (five) within our systematic review and showed good performance in four different countries, pooled AUC 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.87). We identified other potentially useful prognostic tools that have yet to be as extensively validated as iSCORE - these include SOAR (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.80), GWTG (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.72) and PLAN (1 study, pooled AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.84-0.87). Our meta-analysis has identified and summarized the performance of several prognostic scores with modest to good predictive accuracy for early mortality in ischaemic stroke, with the iSCORE having the broadest evidence base. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognostic Score of Long-Term Survival After Surgery for Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: A Multicenter Analysis.

PubMed

Leuzzi, Giovanni; Rea, Federico; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Marulli, Giuseppe; Sperduti, Isabella; Alessandrini, Gabriele; Casiraghi, Monica; Bovolato, Pietro; Pariscenti, Gianluca; Alloisio, Marco; Infante, Maurizio; Pagan, Vittore; Fontana, Paolo; Oliaro, Alberto; Ruffini, Enrico; Ratto, Giovanni Battista; Leoncini, Giacomo; Sacco, Rocco; Mucilli, Felice; Facciolo, Francesco

2015-09-01

Despite ongoing efforts to improve therapy in malignant pleural mesothelioma, few patients undergoing extrapleural pneumonectomy experience long-term survival (LTS). This study aims to explore predictors of LTS after extrapleural pneumonectomy and to define a prognostic score. From January 2000 to December 2010, we retrospectively reviewed clinicopathologic and oncological factors in a multicenter cohort of 468 malignant pleural mesothelioma patients undergoing extrapleural pneumonectomy. LTS was defined as survival longer than 3 years. Associations were evaluated using χ(2), Student's t, and Mann-Whitney U tests. Logistic regression, Cox regression hazard model, and bootstrap analysis were applied to identify outcome predictors. Survival curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to estimate optimal cutoff and area under the curve for accuracy of the model. Overall, 107 patients (22.9%) survived at least 3 years. Median overall, cancer-specific, and disease-free survival times were 60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 51 to 69), 63 (95% CI, 54 to 72), and 49 months (95% CI, 39 to 58), respectively. At multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.82), epithelioid histology (odds ratio, 7.07; 95% CI, 1.56 to 31.93), no history of asbestos exposure (odds ratio, 3.13; 95% CI, 1.13 to 8.66), and the ratio between metastatic and resected lymph nodes less than 22% (odds ratio, 4.12; 95% CI, 1.68 to 10.12) were independent predictors of LTS. According to these factors, we created a scoring system for LTS that allowed us to correctly predict overall, cancer-specific, and disease-free survival in the total sample, obtaining two different groups with favorable or poor prognosis (area under the curve, 0.74; standard error, 0.04; p < 0.0001). Our prognostic model facilitates the prediction of LTS after surgery for malignant pleural mesothelioma and can help to stratify the outcome and, eventually

Glasgow Coma Scale and Outcomes after Structural Traumatic Head Injury in Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Heather, Natasha L.; Derraik, José G. B.; Beca, John; Hofman, Paul L.; Dansey, Rangi; Hamill, James; Cutfield, Wayne S.

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the association of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) with radiological evidence of head injury (the Abbreviated Injury Scale for the head region, AIS-HR) in young children hospitalized with traumatic head injury (THI), and the predictive value of GCS and AIS-HR scores for long-term impairment. Methods Our study involved a 10-year retrospective review of a database encompassing all patients admitted to Starship Children’s Hospital (Auckland, New Zealand, 2000–2010) with THI. Results We studied 619 children aged <5 years at the time of THI, with long-term outcome data available for 161 subjects. Both GCS and AIS-HR scores were predictive of length of intensive care unit and hospital stay (all p<0.001). GCS was correlated with AIS-HR (ρ=-0.46; p<0.001), although mild GCS scores (13–15) commonly under-estimated the severity of radiological injury: 42% of children with mild GCS scores had serious–critical THI (AIS-HR 3–5). Increasingly severe GCS or AIS-HR scores were both associated with a greater likelihood of long-term impairment (neurological disability, residual problems, and educational support). However, long-term impairment was also relatively common in children with mild GCS scores paired with structural THI more severe than a simple linear skull fracture. Conclusion Severe GCS scores will identify most cases of severe radiological injury in early childhood, and are good predictors of poor long-term outcome. However, young children admitted to hospital with structural THI and mild GCS scores have an appreciable risk of long-term disability, and also warrant long-term follow-up. PMID:24312648

Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide is a prognostic marker in sepsis, similar to the APACHE II score: an observational study.

PubMed

Morgenthaler, Nils G; Struck, Joachim; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Bergmann, Andreas; Müller, Beat

2005-02-01

Additional biomarkers in sepsis are needed to tackle the challenges of determining prognosis and optimizing selection of high-risk patients for application of therapy. In the present study, conducted in a cohort of medical intensive care unit patients, our aim was to compare the prognostic value of mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) levels with those of other biomarkers and physiological scores. Blood samples obtained in a prospective observational study conducted in 101 consecutive critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit were analyzed. The prognostic value of pro-ANP levels was compared with that of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and with those of various biomarkers (i.e. C-reactive protein, IL-6 and procalcitonin). Mid-regional pro-ANP was detected in EDTA plasma from all patients using a new sandwich immunoassay. On admission, 53 patients had sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock, and 68 had systemic inflammatory response syndrome. The median pro-ANP value in the survivors was 194 pmol/l (range 20-2000 pmol/l), which was significantly lower than in the nonsurvivors (median 853.0 pmol/l, range 100-2000 pmol/l; P < 0.001). On the day of admission, pro-ANP levels, but not levels of other biomarkers, were significantly higher in non-surviving [corrected] than in surviving [corrected] sepsis patients (P = 0.001). In a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for the survival of patients with sepsis, the area under the curve (AUC) for pro-ANP was 0.88, which was significantly greater than the AUCs for procalcitonin and C-reactive protein, and similar to the AUC for the APACHE II score. Pro-ANP appears to be a valuable tool for individual risk assessment in sepsis patients and for stratification of high-risk patients in future intervention trials. Further studies are needed to validate our results.

Prognostic Impact of Calcium Score after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Performed With New Generation Prosthesis.

PubMed

Akodad, Mariama; Lattuca, Benoit; Agullo, Audrey; Macia, Jean-Christophe; Gandet, Thomas; Marin, Grégory; Iemmi, Anaïs; Vernhet, Hélène; Schmutz, Laurent; Nagot, Nicolas; Albat, Bernard; Cayla, Guillaume; Leclercq, Florence

2018-05-15

Calcium score (CS) is a well-known prognostic factor after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) performed with first generation prosthesis but few data are available concerning new generation valves. The aim of this study was to evaluate if CS remains a prognostic factor after Sapien 3 and Evolut R valves implantation. Agatston CS was evaluated on multislice computed tomography before TAVI in 346 patients implanted with Sapien XT (n = 61), CoreValve (n = 57) devices, (group 1, n = 118), and with new generation Sapien 3 (n = 147), Evolut R (n = 81) prosthesis, (group 2, n = 228). Major adverse cardiovascular events and aortic regurgitation (AR) were evaluated at 1 month. The 2 groups were similar at baseline except for logistic Euroscore (20.1% in group 1 vs 15.0 % in group 2; p = 0.001), chronic renal failure (44.1% vs 37.2% respectively, p = 0.007) and preprocedural CS (4,092 ± 2,176 vs 3,682 ± 2,109 respectively, p = 0.022). In group 1, 28 patients (23.7%) had adverse clinical events vs 21 (9.2%) in group 2 (p <0.01). In multivariate analysis, a higher CS was predictive of adverse events in group 1 (5,785 ± 3,285 vs 3,565 ± 1,331 p <0.0001) but not in group 2 (p = 0.28). A higher CS was associated with AR in group 1 (6,234 ± 2711 vs 3,429 ± 1,505; p <0.001) and in patients implanted with an Evolut R device from group 2 (4,085 ± 3,645 vs 2,551 ± 1,356; p = 0.01). In conclusion, CS appears as an important prognostic factor of major events after TAVI with first generation valves but not with new generation devices. CS remains associated with AR only with new generation self-expandable Evolut R devices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The reliability of the Glasgow Coma Scale: a systematic review.

PubMed

Reith, Florence C M; Van den Brande, Ruben; Synnot, Anneliese; Gruen, Russell; Maas, Andrew I R

2016-01-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) provides a structured method for assessment of the level of consciousness. Its derived sum score is applied in research and adopted in intensive care unit scoring systems. Controversy exists on the reliability of the GCS. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize evidence on the reliability of the GCS. A literature search was undertaken in MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Observational studies that assessed the reliability of the GCS, expressed by a statistical measure, were included. Methodological quality was evaluated with the consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments checklist and its influence on results considered. Reliability estimates were synthesized narratively. We identified 52 relevant studies that showed significant heterogeneity in the type of reliability estimates used, patients studied, setting and characteristics of observers. Methodological quality was good (n = 7), fair (n = 18) or poor (n = 27). In good quality studies, kappa values were ≥0.6 in 85%, and all intraclass correlation coefficients indicated excellent reliability. Poor quality studies showed lower reliability estimates. Reliability for the GCS components was higher than for the sum score. Factors that may influence reliability include education and training, the level of consciousness and type of stimuli used. Only 13% of studies were of good quality and inconsistency in reported reliability estimates was found. Although the reliability was adequate in good quality studies, further improvement is desirable. From a methodological perspective, the quality of reliability studies needs to be improved. From a clinical perspective, a renewed focus on training/education and standardization of assessment is required.

Promoting breast screening in Glasgow.

PubMed

Cohen, L; Dobson, H; McGuire, F

2000-03-01

To establish whether there is a role for advertising in the promotion of the Breast Screening Programme and what the role of advertising might be. Four hundred and sixty questionnaires were completed by women attending their breast screening appointment. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from the static unit at Calder Street and the mobile unit in Govan. The advertising (budget 30,000 Pounds) campaign ran over an eight week period in the Govan, Paisley Road West and Cardonald areas of Glasgow. Media used included press advertising, The Glasgow Underground, adshells, bus advertising (interiors) and poster distribution via local outlets. Forty-two per cent of the sample were aware of the campaign. Ninety-seven per cent liked the campaign images. Eighty eight per cent felt that breast screening should be advertised more. Screening uptake increased in the areas covered by the advertising campaign. Govan -58%-71% and Ibrox (Paisley Road West and Cardonald) -59%-61%. Women were very supportive of the role of advertising for the Breast Screening Programme. In particular they found the campaign images and messages reassuring, supportive and credible. Their views suggest that the role of advertising should be: To raise awareness of the service To make women more conscious of the benefits of screening To change public perceptions of the screening process However, it is recognised that a fully integrated approach is required for the promotion of the service to account for the improvement in uptake, as advertising cannot be expected to work in isolation.

Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein and Ubiquitin C-Terminal Hydrolase-L1 as Outcome Predictors in Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Takala, Riikka S K; Posti, Jussi P; Runtti, Hilkka; Newcombe, Virginia F; Outtrim, Joanne; Katila, Ari J; Frantzén, Janek; Ala-Seppälä, Henna; Kyllönen, Anna; Maanpää, Henna-Riikka; Tallus, Jussi; Hossain, Md Iftakher; Coles, Jonathan P; Hutchinson, Peter; van Gils, Mark; Menon, David K; Tenovuo, Olli

2016-03-01

Biomarkers ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) may help detect brain injury, assess its severity, and improve outcome prediction. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of these biomarkers during the first days after brain injury. Serum UCH-L1 and GFAP were measured in 324 patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) enrolled in a prospective study. The outcome was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) or the extended version, Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE). Patients with full recovery had lower UCH-L1 concentrations on the second day and patients with favorable outcome had lower UCH-L1 concentrations during the first 2 days compared with patients with incomplete recovery and unfavorable outcome. Patients with full recovery and favorable outcome had significantly lower GFAP concentrations in the first 2 days than patients with incomplete recovery or unfavorable outcome. There was a strong negative correlation between outcome and UCH-L1 in the first 3 days and GFAP levels in the first 2 days. On arrival, both UCH-L1 and GFAP distinguished patients with GOS score 1-3 from patients with GOS score 4-5, but not patients with GOSE score 8 from patients with GOSE score 1-7. For UCH-L1 and GFAP to predict unfavorable outcome (GOS score ≤ 3), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.727, and 0.723, respectively. Neither UCHL-1 nor GFAP was independently able to predict the outcome when age, worst Glasgow Coma Scale score, pupil reactivity, Injury Severity Score, and Marshall score were added into the multivariate logistic regression model. GFAP and UCH-L1 are significantly associated with outcome, but they do not add predictive power to commonly used prognostic variables in a population of patients with TBI of varying severities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic significance of pre-resection albumin/fibrinogen ratio in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: A propensity score matching analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Shuaishuai; Yan, Haixi; Du, Juping; Li, Jun; Shen, Bo; Ying, Haijian; Zhang, Ying; Chen, Shiyong

2018-07-01

Nutrition and coagulation play important roles in cancer progression. This study was aimed to investigate the value of the albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, through a propensity score matching (PSM) method. We retrospectively analyzed 529 NSCLC patients underwent surgical resection from 2010 to 2015. PSM was used to eliminate possible biases. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of AFR in NSCLC. The optimal value was 9.67 for the AFR by ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve. The AFR was statistically significantly associated with age, sex, smoking history, histological subtype, tumor size, pathological stage and adjuvant therapy (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that the pathological stage and pre-resection AFR were independent prognostic factors for patients with NSCLC. Additionally, elevated AFR indicated a better outcome, and patients with higher AFR had lower risk for overall death (OS) (HR 0.512, 95% CI 0.316-0.829, p = 0.006) as well as disease-free death (DFS) (HR 0.561, 95% CI 0.399-0.787, p = 0.001). The propensity score model identified 120 patients from each group that were balanced for age, sex, smoking history, histological subtype, tumor size, stage distribution and adjuvant therapy. In multivariable regression analysis of PSM groups, the result indicated that the AFR was predictive for OS (HR 0.392, 95% CI 0.225-0.683, p < 0.001) and DFS (HR 0.526, 95% CI 0.344-0.805, p = 0.003). Pre-resection AFR can be considered as an independent prognostic factor in NSCLC patients, and higher AFR may enhance OS and DFS of NSCLC patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nutritional risk assessment in critically ill cancer patients: systematic review

PubMed Central

Fruchtenicht, Ana Valéria Gonçalves; Poziomyck, Aline Kirjner; Kabke, Geórgia Brum; Loss, Sérgio Henrique; Antoniazzi, Jorge Luiz; Steemburgo, Thais; Moreira, Luis Fernando

2015-01-01

Objective To systematically review the main methods for nutritional risk assessment used in critically ill cancer patients and present the methods that better assess risks and predict relevant clinical outcomes in this group of patients, as well as to discuss the pros and cons of these methods according to the current literature. Methods The study consisted of a systematic review based on analysis of manuscripts retrieved from the PubMed, LILACS and SciELO databases by searching for the key words “nutritional risk assessment”, “critically ill” and “cancer”. Results Only 6 (17.7%) of 34 initially retrieved papers met the inclusion criteria and were selected for the review. The main outcomes of these studies were that resting energy expenditure was associated with undernourishment and overfeeding. The high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score was significantly associated with low food intake, weight loss and malnutrition. In terms of biochemical markers, higher levels of creatinine, albumin and urea were significantly associated with lower mortality. The worst survival was found for patients with worse Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, high Glasgow Prognostic Score, low albumin, high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score and high alkaline phosphatase levels. Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index values < 87 were significantly associated with mortality. A high Prognostic Inflammatory and Nutritional Index score was associated with abnormal nutritional status in critically ill cancer patients. Among the reviewed studies that examined weight and body mass index alone, no significant clinical outcome was found. Conclusion None of the methods reviewed helped to define risk among these patients. Therefore, assessment by a combination of weight loss and serum measurements, preferably in combination with other methods using scores such as Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, Glasgow Prognostic

[Translation and Validation of the FOUR Scale for Children and its Use as Outcome Predictor: A Pilot Study].

PubMed

Ferreira, Sofia Simões; Meireles, Daniel; Pinto, Alexandra; Abecasis, Francisco

2017-09-29

The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness - FOUR scale has been previously validated to assess impaired consciousness in the adult population. The aim of this study is the translation into Portuguese and validation of the FOUR scale in the pediatric population. The study also compares the FOUR scale and Glasgow coma scale score ratings and the clinical outcome of patients hospitalized in Pediatric Intensive Care Units. This study prospectively rated patients admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Units with impaired consciousness during one year. Both scales were applied daily to patients by three types of examiners: intensivists, residents and nurses, from the moment of admission until clinical discharge. Neurological sequelae was evaluated using the King's Outcome Scale for Childhood Head Injury - KOSCHI. Twenty seven patients between one and 17 years of age were included. Both scales are reliable and inter-rater reliability was greater for the FOUR score. Glasgow coma scale showed a minimum score in eight evaluations, whereas the FOUR scale obtained the minimum score in only two of these evaluations. In both scales there was a strong association between the admission score and the patient's outcome (area under curve FOUR = 0.939, versus Glasgow coma scale = 0.925). The FOUR scale provides more neurological information than Glasgow coma scale in patients with impaired consciousness and has prognostic interest. The FOUR scale can be applied in patients admitted with impaired consciousness in Pediatric Intensive Care Units. We think that a multicenter study would be very beneficial for confirming and generalizing these results.

Evaluation of a prognostic scoring system for dogs managed with hemodialysis.

PubMed

Perondi, Francesca; Lippi, Ilaria; Ceccherini, Gianila; Marchetti, Veronica; Bernicchi, Lucrezia; Guidi, Grazia

2018-06-24

To investigate prognostic models in a cohort of dogs with acute kidney injury (AKI) and acute on chronic kidney disease (AKI/CKD) managed by hemodialysis. Retrospective study from July 2011 to November 2014. University Veterinary Teaching Hospital. Forty dogs with historical, clinical, imaging, and laboratory findings consistent with AKI or AKI/CKD managed with intermittent hemodialysis were included. Scoring system models previously established by Segev et al for outcome prediction in dogs with AKI were applied to all dogs. Models A, B, and C correctly classified outcomes in 68%, 83%, and 85% of cases, respectively. In our cohort Model A showed sensitivity of 58% and specificity of 86%, Model B showed sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 87%, Model C showed sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 84%. The presence of anuria (P < 0.0002), respiratory complications (P < 0.0001), disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) (P = 0.0004), grade of AKI (P = 0.0023), pancreatitis (P = 0.0001), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (P = 0.0001) was significantly higher in nonsurvivors compared with survivors. In our cohort of patients, Segev's model C showed the best sensitivity and specificity for predicting prognosis, while model A had lower sensitivity. In our cohort of dialysis patients, the presence of respiratory complications, DIC, SIRS, and pancreatitis at hospitalization, were correlated with a poor prognosis. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2018.

Assessment of prognostic performance of Albumin-Bilirubin, Child-Pugh, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Xavier, Sofia A; Vilas-Boas, Ricardo; Boal Carvalho, Pedro; Magalhães, Joana T; Marinho, Carla M; Cotter, José B

2018-06-01

The Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) score was developed recently to assess the severity of liver dysfunction. We aimed to assess its prognostic performance in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) while comparing it with Child-Pugh (CP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. This was a retrospective unicentric study, including consecutive adult patients with cirrhosis admitted for UGIB between January 2011 and November 2015. Clinical, analytical, and endoscopic variables were assessed and ALBI, CP, and MELD scores at admission were calculated. This study included 111 patients. During the first 30 days of follow-up, 12 (10.8%) patients died, and during the first year of follow-up, another 10 patients died (first-year mortality of 19.8%).On comparing the three scores, for in-stay and 30-day mortality, only the ALBI score showed statistically significant results, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (P<0.01) for both outcomes. For first-year mortality, AUC for ALBI, CP, and MELD scores were 0.71 (P<0.01), 0.64 (P<0.05), and 0.66 (P=0.02), respectively, whereas for global mortality, AUC were 0.75 (P<0.01), 0.72 (P<0.01), and 0.72 (P<0.01), respectively. On comparing the AUC of the three scores, no significant differences were found in first-year mortality and global mortality. In our series, the ALBI score accurately predicted both in-stay and 30-day mortality, whereas CP and MELD scores could not predict these outcomes. All scores showed a fair prognostic prediction performance for first-year and global mortality. These results suggest that the ALBI score is particularly useful in the assessment of short-term outcomes, with a better performance than the most commonly used scores.

Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer.

PubMed

Sun, Kai-Yu; Xu, Jian-Bo; Chen, Shu-Ling; Yuan, Yu-Jie; Wu, Hui; Peng, Jian-Jun; Chen, Chuang-Qi; Guo, Pi; Hao, Yuan-Tao; He, Yu-Long

2015-05-21

To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between 1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias. Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring (hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval: 1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage II-III disease (P = 0.019, P < 0.001), T3-T4 tumors (P < 0.001), or lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). Canton score, a combination of PNI, NLR, and platelet, was a better indicator for OS than PNI, with the largest area under the curve for 12-, 36-, 60-mo OS and overall OS (P = 0.022, P = 0.030, P < 0.001, and P = 0.024, respectively). The maximum sensitivity, specificity, and agreement rate of Canton score for predicting prognosis were 84.6%, 34.9%, and 70.1%, respectively. PNI is an independent prognostic factor for OS in gastric cancer. Canton score can be a novel preoperative prognostic index in gastric cancer.

Prognostic scores after surgical treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a proposed model and possible implications for post-operative follow-up.

PubMed

Andrade, Carlos E M C; Scapulatempo-Neto, Cristovam; Longatto-Filho, Adhemar; Vieira, Marcelo A; Tsunoda, Audrey T; Da Silva, Ismael D C G; Fregnani, José Humberto T G

2014-09-01

To develop a prognostic model for women who underwent surgical treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Cohort study. Patient inclusion and follow-up occurred retrospectively and prospectively. Barretos Cancer Hospital, Barretos, São Paulo, Brazil. Women (n = 242) diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia who were submitted to conization. Immediately prior to surgical treatment, a cervical cytology sample was collected from each individual included in the study by endocervical brushing and stored in a preservative solution with methanol. A human papilloma virus-DNA test was conducted using an aliquot of the endocervical brushings. The surgical specimens were subjected to immunohistochemical analysis of p16 (immunohistochemical analysis 4a) protein expression. Two-year disease-free survival rates calculated for each study variable. Identified variables in the multivariate Cox model were used for elaboration of prognostic scores. Variables associated with outcome included age (p = 0.033), tobacco use (p < 0.001), final histopathological diagnosis (p = 0.007), surgical margins (p < 0.001), high-risk human papilloma virus status (p = 0.008), human papilloma virus-16 status (p < 0.001) and immunoexpression of p16 in the cytoplasm (p = 0.049). By the Cox model, independent risk factors for disease recurrence/persistence were: tobacco use (hazard risk = 3.0; 95% confidence interval 1.6-5.6), positive surgical margins (hazard risk = 3.2; 95% confidence interval 1.6-6.1), human papilloma virus-16 (hazard risk = 3.3; 95% confidence interval 1.6-6.9) and age over 45 years (hazard risk = 2.7; 95% confidence interval 1.1-6.6). Establishment of a prognostic score can represent a valuable tool for determining the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia recurrence after conization. The use of clinical (age and tobacco use), pathological (surgical margins) and molecular (human papilloma virus-16 genotyping) factors can facilitate more

The laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing fasciitis (LRINEC) scoring: the diagnostic and potential prognostic role.

PubMed

El-Menyar, Ayman; Asim, Mohammad; Mudali, Insolvisagan N; Mekkodathil, Ahammed; Latifi, Rifat; Al-Thani, Hassan

2017-03-07

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a devastating soft tissue infection associated with potentially poor outcomes. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score has been introduced as a diagnostic tool for NF. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of LRINEC scoring in NF patients. A retrospective analysis was conducted for patients who were admitted with NF between 2000 and 2013. Based on LRINEC points, patients were classified into (Group 1: LRINEC < 6 and Group 2: LRINEC ≥ 6). The 2 groups were analyzed and compared. Primary outcomes were hospital length of stay, septic shock and hospital death. A total of 294 NF cases were identified with a mean age 50.9 ± 15 years. When compared to Group1, patients in Group 2 were 5 years older (p = 0.009), more likely to have diabetes mellitus (61 vs 41%, p < 0.001), Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection (p = 0.004), greater Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (11.5 ± 3 vs 8 ± 2, p = 0.001), and prolonged intensive care (median 7 vs 5 days) and hospital length of stay (22 vs 11 days, p = 0.001). Septic shock (37 vs. 15%, p = 0.001) and mortality (28.8 vs. 15.0%, p = 0.005) were also significantly higher in Group 2 patients. Using Receiver operating curve, cutoff LRINEC point for mortality was 8.5 with area under the curve of 0.64. Pearson correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between LRINEC and SOFA scorings (r = 0.51, p < 0.002). Early diagnosis, simplified risk stratification and on-time management are vital to achieve better outcomes in patients with NF. Beside its diagnostic role, LRINEC scoring could predict worse hospital outcomes in patients with NF and simply identify the high-risk patients. However, further prospective studies are needed to support this finding.

Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score in critically ill patients: Easily available and of prognostic relevance.

PubMed

Wernly, Bernhard; Lichtenauer, Michael; Franz, Marcus; Kabisch, Bjoern; Muessig, Johanna; Masyuk, Maryna; Hoppe, Uta C; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian

2017-01-01

MELD-XI, an adapted version of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score excluding INR, was reported to predict outcomes e.g. in patients with acute heart failure. We aimed to evaluate MELD-XI in critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance. A total of 4381 medical patients (66±14 years, 2862 male) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included and retrospectively investigated. Admission diagnoses were e.g. myocardial infarction (n = 2034), sepsis (n = 694) and heart failure (n = 688). We divided our patients in two cohorts basing on their MELD-XI score and evaluated the MELD-XI score for its prognostic relevance regarding short-term and long-term survival. Optimal cut-offs were calculated by means of the Youden-Index. Patients with a MELD-XI score >12 had pronounced laboratory signs of organ failure and more comorbidities. MELD-XI >12 was associated with an increase in short-term (27% vs 6%; HR 4.82, 95%CI 3.93-5.93; p<0.001) and long-term (HR 3.69, 95%CI 3.20-4.25; p<0.001) mortality. In a univariate Cox regression analysis for all patients MELD-XI was associated with increased long-term mortality (changes per score point: HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.05-1.07; p<0.001) and remained to be associated with increased mortality after correction in a multivariate regression analysis for renal failure, liver failure, lactate concentration, blood glucose concentration, oxygenation and white blood count (HR 1.04, 95%CI 1.03-1.06; p<0.001). Optimal cut-off for the overall cohort was 11 and varied remarkably depending on the admission diagnosis: myocardial infarction (9), pulmonary embolism (9), cardiopulmonary resuscitation (17) and pneumonia (17). We performed ROC-analysis and compared the AUC: SAPS2 (0.78, 95%CI 0.76-0.80; p<0.0001) and APACHE (0.76, 95%CI 0.74-0.78; p<0.003) score were superior to MELD-XI (0.71, 95%CI 0.68-0.73) for prediction of mortality. The easily calculable MELD-XI score is a robust and reliable

Spiderman enlisted to help with glasgow child abuse problems.

PubMed

1987-11-14

When Spiderman admitted in a comic that he had been abused as a boy, then children realised they could share their own painful experiences, said a speaker at a conference on Incest and Rape, staged by the Royal College of Nursing Greater Glasgow branch.

Patients Admitted to Three Spanish Intensive Care Units for Poisoning: Type of Poisoning, Mortality, and Functioning of Prognostic Scores Commonly Used

PubMed Central

Banderas-Bravo, María Esther; Arias-Verdú, Maria Dolores; Macías-Guarasa, Ines; Castillo-Lorente, Encarnación; Pérez-Costillas, Lucia; Gutierrez-Rodriguez, Raquel; Quesada-García, Guillermo; Rivera-Fernández, Ricardo

2017-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate the gravity and mortality of those patients admitted to the intensive care unit for poisoning. Also, the applicability and predicted capacity of prognostic scales most frequently used in ICU must be evaluated. Methods. Multicentre study between 2008 and 2013 on all patients admitted for poisoning. Results. The results are from 119 patients. The causes of poisoning were medication, 92 patients (77.3%), caustics, 11 (9.2%), and alcohol, 20 (16,8%). 78.3% attempted suicides. Mean age was 44.42 ± 13.85 years. 72.5% had a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤8 points. The ICU mortality was 5.9% and the hospital mortality was 6.7%. The mortality from caustic poisoning was 54.5%, and it was 1.9% for noncaustic poisoning (p < 0.001). After adjusting for SAPS-3 (OR: 1.19 (1.02–1.39)) the mortality of patients who had ingested caustics was far higher than the rest (OR: 560.34 (11.64–26973.83)). There was considerable discrepancy between mortality predicted by SAPS-3 (26.8%) and observed (6.7%) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: H = 35.10; p < 0.001). The APACHE-II (7,57%) and APACHE-III (8,15%) were no discrepancies. Conclusions. Admission to ICU for poisoning is rare in our country. Medication is the most frequent cause, but mortality of caustic poisoning is higher. APACHE-II and APACHE-III provide adequate predictions about mortality, while SAPS-3 tends to overestimate. PMID:28459061

Perspectives on differing health outcomes by city: accounting for Glasgow's excess mortality.

PubMed

Fraser, Simon Ds; George, Steve

2015-01-01

Several health outcomes (including mortality) and health-related behaviors are known to be worse in Scotland than in comparable areas of Europe and the United Kingdom. Within Scotland, Greater Glasgow (in West Central Scotland) experiences disproportionately poorer outcomes independent of measurable variation in socioeconomic status and other important determinants. Many reasons for this have been proposed, particularly related to deprivation, inequalities, and variation in health behaviors. The use of models (such as the application of Bradford Hill's viewpoints on causality to the different hypotheses) has provided useful insights on potentially causal mechanisms, with health behaviors and inequalities likely to represent the strongest individual candidates. This review describes the evolution of our understanding of Glasgow's excess mortality, summarizes some of the key work in this area, and provides some suggestions for future areas of exploration. In the context of demographic change, the experience in Glasgow is an important example of the complexity that frequently lies behind observed variations in health outcomes within and between populations. A comprehensive explanation of Glasgow's excess mortality may continue to remain elusive, but is likely to lie in a complex and difficult-to-measure interplay of health determinants acting at different levels in society throughout the life course. Lessons learned from the detailed examination of different potentially causative determinants in Scotland may provide useful methodological insights that may be applied in other settings. Ongoing efforts to unravel the causal mechanisms are needed to inform public health efforts to reduce health inequalities and improve outcomes in Scotland.

Emotional and Behavioural Development in Glasgow Primary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pritchett, Rachel; Nowek, Gail; Neill, Cróna; Minnis, Helen

2014-01-01

Studies examining the well-being of British children find that about 5-10% are at risk of developing problems. This study aimed to examine the emotional and behavioural development of six to eight year olds in an area of socio-economic deprivation in Glasgow (Scotland) and compare this with UK norms. Furthermore, it aimed to look at overlap…

Proposal and validation of prognostic scoring systems for IgG and IgA monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance.

PubMed

Rossi, Francesca; Petrucci, Maria Teresa; Guffanti, Andrea; Marcheselli, Luigi; Rossi, Davide; Callea, Vincenzo; Vincenzo, Federico; De Muro, Marianna; Baraldi, Alessandra; Villani, Oreste; Musto, Pellegrino; Bacigalupo, Andrea; Gaidano, Gianluca; Avvisati, Giuseppe; Goldaniga, Maria; Depaoli, Lorenzo; Baldini, Luca

2009-07-01

The presenting clinico-hematologic features of 1,283 patients with IgG and IgA monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance (MGUS) were correlated with the frequency of evolution into multiple myeloma (MM). Two IgG MGUS populations were evaluated: a training sample (553 patients) and a test sample (378 patients); the IgA MGUS population consisted of 352 patients. Forty-seven of the 553 training group patients and 22 of 378 test group IgG patients developed MM after a median follow-up of 6.7 and 3.6 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that serum monoclonal component (MC) levels of < or =1.5 g/dL, the absence of light-chain proteinuria and normal serum polyclonal immunoglobulin levels defined a prognostically favorable subset of patients, and could be used to stratify the patients into three groups at different 10-year risk of evolution (hazard ratio, 1.0, 5.04, 11.2; P < 0.001). This scoring system was validated in the test sample. Thirty of the 352 IgA patients developed MM after a median follow-up of 4.8 years, and multivariate analysis showed that hemoglobin levels of <12.5 g/dL and reduced serum polyclonal immunoglobulin correlated with progression. A pooled statistical analysis of all of the patients confirmed the validity of Mayo Clinic risk model showing that IgA class, serum MC levels, and light-chain proteinuria are the most important variables correlated with disease progression. Using simple variables, we validated a prognostic model for IgG MGUS. Among the IgA cases, the possible prognostic role of hemoglobin emerged in addition to a decrease in normal immunoglobulin levels.

Prognostic value of calcium score and coronary flow velocity reserve in asymptomatic diabetic patients.

PubMed

Dikic, Miodrag; Tesic, Milorad; Markovic, Zeljko; Giga, Vojislav; Djordjevic-Dikic, Ana; Stepanovic, Jelena; Beleslin, Branko; Jovanovic, Ivana; Mladenovic, Ana; Seferovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag; Arandjelovic, Aleksandra

2015-09-04

The risk stratification of patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major objective for the clinicians, and it can be achieved by coronary flow velocity reserve (CFVR) or with coronary artery calcium score (CS). CS evaluates underlying coronary atherosclerotic plaque burden and CFVR estimates both presence of coronary artery stenosis and microvascular function. Consequently, CFVR may provide unique risk information beyond the extent of coronary atherosclerosis. Our aim is to assess joint prognostic value of CFVR and CS in asymptomatic DM patients. We prospectively included 200 asymptomatic patients (45,5 % male, mean age 57,35 ± 11,25), out of which, there were 101 asymptomatic patients with DM and 99 asymptomatic patients without DM, but with one or more conventionally risk factors for coronary artery disease. We analyzed clinical, biochemical, metabolic, inflammatory parameters, CS by Agatston method, transthoracic Doppler echocardiography CFVR of left anterior descending artery and echocardiographic parameters. Total CS and CS LAD were significantly higher, while mean CFVR was lower in diabetics compared to the nondiabetics. During 1 year follow-up, 24 patients experienced cardio-vascular events (one cardiovascular death, two strokes, three myocardial infarctions, nine new onsets of unstable angina and nine myocardial revascularizations): 19 patients with DM and five non DM patients, (p = 0,003). Overall event free survival was significantly higher in non DM group, compared to the DM group (94,9 % vs. 81,2 %, p = 0,002 respectively), while the patients with CS ≥200 and CFVR <2 had the worst outcome during 1 year follow up in the whole study population as well as in the DM group. At multivariable analysis CFVR on LAD (HR 12.918, 95 % CI 3.865-43.177, p < 0.001) and total CS (HR 13.393, 95 % CI 1.675-107.119, p = 0.014) were independent prognostic predictors of adverse events in DM group of patients. Both CS and CFVR provide independent and complementary

Prospective Validation of Objective Prognostic Score for Advanced Cancer Inpatients in South Korea: A Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Yoon, Seok Joon; Suh, Sang-Yeon; Lee, Yong Joo; Park, Jeanno; Hwang, Sunwook; Lee, Sanghee Shiny; Ahn, Hong Yup; Koh, Su-Jin; Park, Keon Uk

2017-01-01

Objective Prognostic Score (OPS) was developed as an easy and simple prognosticating tool in South Korea. It has been validated retrospectively in a single center in South Korea. We aimed to validate the OPS prospectively for advanced cancer inpatients in South Korea using a multicenter study. This was a prospective cohort study. We enrolled 243 advanced cancer patients admitted in five palliative care units in South Korea from May 2013 till March 2015. Seven members of the Korean Palliative Medicine Research Network who are experts of palliative care led the study. Clinical variables (dyspnea/anorexia/performance status) and laboratory variables (total leukocyte counts/serum total bilirubin/serum creatinine/lactate dehydrogenase) were collected at the enrollment. Survival time was calculated as days from enrollment to death during admission. A total of 217 patients were included in the final analysis (feasibility: 89.3%). Survival time of the higher OPS group (OPS ≥3) and the lower OPS group (OPS <3) was 10.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.72-12.28) days and 32.0 (95% CI 25.44-38.56) days, respectively. There were significant differences between the 2 groups (p < 0.001). Overall accuracy of OPS ≥3 for predicting survival less than three weeks was 71.0%. OPS was successfully validated using a prospective multicenter study in South Korea. It is a useful method to predict three-week survival of Korean inpatients with advanced cancer.

Prognostic value of major extracranial injury in traumatic brain injury: an individual patient data meta-analysis in 39,274 patients.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, Nikki; Lingsma, Hester F; Perel, Pablo; Lecky, Fiona; Roozenbeek, Bob; Lu, Juan; Shakur, Haleema; Weir, James; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Maas, Andrew I R

2012-04-01

Major extracranial injury (MEI) is common in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients, but the effect on outcome is controversial. To assess the prognostic value of MEI on mortality after TBI in an individual patient data meta-analysis of 3 observational TBI studies (International Mission on Prognosis and Clinical Trial Design in TBI [IMPACT]), a randomized controlled trial (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury [CRASH]), and a trauma registry (Trauma Audit and Research Network [TARN]). MEI (extracranial injury with an Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3 or requiring hospital admission) was related to mortality with logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, Glasgow Coma Scale motor score, and pupil reactivity and stratified by TBI severity. We pooled odds ratios (ORs) with random-effects meta-analysis. We included 39,274 patients. Mortality was 25%, and 32% had MEI. MEI was a strong predictor for mortality in TARN, with adjusted odds ratios of 2.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.44-3.23) in mild, 2.18 (95% CI, 1.80-2.65) in moderate, and 2.14 (95% CI, 1.95-2.35) in severe TBI patients. The prognostic effect was smaller in IMPACT and CRASH, with pooled adjusted odds ratios of 2.14 (95% CI, 0.93-4.91) in mild, 1.46 (95% CI, 1.14-1.85) in moderate, and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.03-1.55) in severe TBI. When patients who died within 6 hours after injury were excluded from TARN, the effect of MEI was comparable with IMPACT and CRASH. MEI is an important prognostic factor for mortality in TBI patients. However, the effect varies by population, which explains the controversy in the literature. The strength of the effect is smaller in patients with more severe brain injury and depends on time of inclusion in a study.

The Unseen Founders Of Quaternary Science - The Men Of Glasgow, Scotland (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, J.

2010-12-01

Louis Agassiz (1807-1873) and Charles Lyell (1797-1875) are widely regarded as the founders of Quaternary Science, and there is no doubt that they played their part: Agassiz in 1840 presented and promoted his case for the wide-scale fluctuations of glaciers, and Lyell, through his books and contacts, did much to introduce the subject which we now know as climate change. However there are a number of individuals who contributed to the founding of Quaternary Science who are not so readily recognised and a remarkable fact is that a significant proportion were men without academic training or background who come from, or worked in Glasgow or the adjacent region of central Scotland. First amongst the Glaswegians was James Smith (1782-1867) who, in 1836 presented a paper to the Geological Society of London (where it was duly ignored) in which he suggested, on the basis of fossils dredged from the bed of the Clyde and experience of sailing around Iceland, that the climate of Scotland had been as cold as that of Iceland in the recent past. In 1841, Charles Maclaren (1782-1866) a journalist from Edinburgh, but using information based on raised shorelines near Glasgow proposed what we now know as the glacio-eustatic theory in which the variations in glacier extent control the level of the sea. Perhaps the most important of all was James Croll (1821- 1890) who worked on the theory of ice ages, based on orbital forcing, while janitor at the Andersonian Institute and Museum in Glasgow between 1859-1867. This work was the true precursor to the Milankovitch theory which provides the explanation for the major predictable elements of climate change. Robert Jack (1845-1921) from Irvine, southwest of Glasgow, while doing fieldwork for the British Geological Survey near Loch Lomond close to Glasgow, described in 1874 evidence for non-glacial conditions between tills and clearly recognised that climate could change from glacial to temperate and then glacial climate, before returning to

Enumerating bone marrow blasts from nonerythroid cellularity improves outcome prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes and permits a better definition of the intermediate risk category of the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R).

PubMed

Calvo, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Senent, Leonor; Arnan, Montserrat; Ramos, Fernando; Pedro, Carme; Tormo, Mar; Montoro, Julia; Díez-Campelo, María; Blanco, María Laura; Arrizabalaga, Beatriz; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Jerez, Andrés; Nomdedeu, Meritxell; Ferrer, Ana; Sanz, Guillermo F; Florensa, Lourdes

2017-07-01

The Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has been recognized as the score with the best outcome prediction capability in MDS, but this brought new concerns about the accurate prognostication of patients classified into the intermediate risk category. The correct enumeration of blasts is essential in prognostication of MDS. Recent data evidenced that considering blasts from nonerythroid cellularity (NECs) improves outcome prediction in the context of IPSS and WHO classification. We assessed the percentage of blasts from total nucleated cells (TNCs) and NECs in 3924 MDS patients from the GESMD, 498 of whom were MDS with erythroid predominance (MDS-E). We assessed if calculating IPSS-R by enumerating blasts from NECs improves prognostication of MDS. Twenty-four percent of patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk categories and showed shorter overall survival (OS) and time to AML evolution than those who remained into the intermediate one. Likewise, a better distribution of patients was observed, since lower-risk patients showed longer survivals than previously whereas higher-risk ones maintained the outcome expected in this poor prognostic group (median OS < 20 months). Furthermore, our approach was particularly useful for detecting patients at risk of dying with AML. Regarding MDS-E, 51% patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk ones and showed shorter OS and time to AML. In this subgroup of MDS, IPSS-R was capable of splitting our series in five groups with significant differences in OS only when blasts were assessed from NECs. In conclusion, our easy-applicable approach improves prognostic assessment of MDS patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A tale of two cities: a review of homicide in Melbourne and Glasgow in 2005.

PubMed

Lynch, Matthew; Black, Marjorie

2008-01-01

The Departments of Forensic Medicine and Science at the University of Glasgow and the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine in Melbourne are academic university-based forensic medicine units providing a medico-legal death investigation service to the Strathclyde region of Scotland and the State of Victoria, Australia, respectively. We reviewed and compared homicides in the two jurisdictions for the year 2005. Whilst gross numbers were comparable, the homicide rate per capita was significantly higher in Glasgow. Death due to stabbing comprised a greater proportion of homicides in Glasgow, reflective of a well recognised social epidemic of knife-related trauma amongst young males. Blunt force trauma was the most prevalent cause of homicidal injury in the Australian cases. The cities shared a low incidence of firearm- related homicide, reflective of strict legislative initiatives.

Learning from history: The Glasgow Airport terrorist attack.

PubMed

Crichton, Gillies

Glasgow Airport was the target of a terrorist attack on 30th June, 2007. Many people within Scotland had come to believe that Scotland was immune from terrorism. This perception was in large part informed by Scotland's experience during the protracted Troubles in Northern Ireland, during which the Provisional Irish Republican Army's mainland bombing campaign focused on targets in England, sparing both Scotland and Wales. While Glasgow Airport did not expect such an attack to take place, meticulous planning, organising and testing of plans had taken place to mitigate the unlikely event of such an attack. The attack stands up as a shining example of robust business continuity management, where the airport reopened for business as usual in less than 24 hours from the time of the attack. Little is known about how the airport handled the situation in conjunction with other responding agencies as people tend to want to focus on high-profile disasters only. Yet countless such incidents are happening worldwide on a daily basis, in which there are excellent learning opportunities, and, taken in the spirit of converting hindsight into foresight, the likelihood of similar incidents could potentially be reduced in the future.

The "Spirit of New Orleans": translating a model of intervention with maltreated children and their families for the Glasgow context.

PubMed

Minnis, Helen; Bryce, Graham; Phin, Louise; Wilson, Phil

2010-10-01

Children in care have higher rates of mental health problems than the general population and placement instability contributes to this. Children are both most vulnerable to the effects of poor quality care and most responsive to treatment in the early weeks and months of life yet, in the UK, permanency decisions are generally not in place until around the age of four. We aimed to understand the components of an innovative system for assessing and intervening with maltreated children and their families developed in New Orleans and to consider how it might be implemented in Glasgow, UK. During and after a visit to New Orleans by a team of Glasgow practitioners, eight key interviews and meetings with New Orleans and Glasgow staff were audio-recorded. Qualitative analysis of verbatim transcripts identified key themes. Themes highlighted shared aspects of the context and attitudes of the two teams, identified gaps in the Glasgow service and steps that would be needed to implement a version of the New Orleans model in Glasgow. Our discussions with the New Orleans team have highlighted concrete steps we can take, in Glasgow, to make better decision-making for vulnerable children a reality.

NCCN-IPI score-independent prognostic potential of pretreatment uric acid levels for clinical outcome of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients

PubMed Central

Prochazka, Katharina T; Melchardt, Thomas; Posch, Florian; Schlick, Konstantin; Deutsch, Alexander; Beham-Schmid, Christine; Weiss, Lukas; Gary, Thomas; Neureiter, Daniel; Klieser, Eckhard; Greil, Richard; Neumeister, Peter; Egle, Alexander; Pichler, Martin

2016-01-01

Background: Blood-based parameters are gaining increasing interest as potential prognostic biomarkers in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The aim of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the prognostic significance of pretreatment plasma uric acid levels in patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL. Methods: The clinical course of 539 DLBCL patients, diagnosed and treated between 2004 and 2013 at two Austrian high-volume centres with rituximab-based immunochemotherapy was evaluated retrospectively. The prognostic influence of uric acid on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were studied including multi-state modelling, and analysis of conditional survival. Results: Five-year OS and PFS were 50.4% (95% CI: 39.2–60.6) and 44.0% (33.4–54.0) in patients with uric acid levels above the 75th percentile of the uric acid distribution (Q3, cut-off: 6.8 mg dl−1), and 66.2% (60.4–71.5) and 59.6% (53.7–65.0%) in patients with lower levels (log-rank P=0.002 and P=0.0045, respectively). In univariable time-to-event analysis, elevated uric acid levels were associated with a worse PFS (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 log increase in uric acid 1.47, 95% CI: 1.10–1.97, P=0.009) and a worse OS (HR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.16–2.19, P=0.004). These associations prevailed upon multivariable adjustment for the NCCN-IPI score. Uric acid levels significantly improved the predictive performance of the R-IPI and NCCN-IPI scores, and in multi-state analysis, it emerged as a highly significant predictor of an increased risk of death without developing recurrence (transition-HR=4.47, 95% CI: 2.17–9.23, P<0.0001). Conclusions: We demonstrate that elevated uric acid levels predict poor long-term outcomes in DLBCL patients beyond the NCCN-IPI risk index. PMID:27764838

Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score in critically ill patients: Easily available and of prognostic relevance

PubMed Central

Wernly, Bernhard; Lichtenauer, Michael; Franz, Marcus; Kabisch, Bjoern; Muessig, Johanna; Masyuk, Maryna; Hoppe, Uta C.; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian

2017-01-01

Purpose MELD-XI, an adapted version of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score excluding INR, was reported to predict outcomes e.g. in patients with acute heart failure. We aimed to evaluate MELD-XI in critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance. Methods A total of 4381 medical patients (66±14 years, 2862 male) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included and retrospectively investigated. Admission diagnoses were e.g. myocardial infarction (n = 2034), sepsis (n = 694) and heart failure (n = 688). We divided our patients in two cohorts basing on their MELD-XI score and evaluated the MELD-XI score for its prognostic relevance regarding short-term and long-term survival. Optimal cut-offs were calculated by means of the Youden-Index. Results Patients with a MELD-XI score >12 had pronounced laboratory signs of organ failure and more comorbidities. MELD-XI >12 was associated with an increase in short-term (27% vs 6%; HR 4.82, 95%CI 3.93–5.93; p<0.001) and long-term (HR 3.69, 95%CI 3.20–4.25; p<0.001) mortality. In a univariate Cox regression analysis for all patients MELD-XI was associated with increased long-term mortality (changes per score point: HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.05–1.07; p<0.001) and remained to be associated with increased mortality after correction in a multivariate regression analysis for renal failure, liver failure, lactate concentration, blood glucose concentration, oxygenation and white blood count (HR 1.04, 95%CI 1.03–1.06; p<0.001). Optimal cut-off for the overall cohort was 11 and varied remarkably depending on the admission diagnosis: myocardial infarction (9), pulmonary embolism (9), cardiopulmonary resuscitation (17) and pneumonia (17). We performed ROC-analysis and compared the AUC: SAPS2 (0.78, 95%CI 0.76–0.80; p<0.0001) and APACHE (0.76, 95%CI 0.74–0.78; p<0.003) score were superior to MELD-XI (0.71, 95%CI 0.68–0.73) for prediction of mortality. Conclusions The easily

Independent Prognostic Factors for Acute Organophosphorus Pesticide Poisoning.

PubMed

Tang, Weidong; Ruan, Feng; Chen, Qi; Chen, Suping; Shao, Xuebo; Gao, Jianbo; Zhang, Mao

2016-07-01

Acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning (AOPP) is becoming a significant problem and a potential cause of human mortality because of the abuse of organophosphate compounds. This study aims to determine the independent prognostic factors of AOPP by using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The clinical data for 71 subjects with AOPP admitted to our hospital were retrospectively analyzed. This information included the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates, admission blood cholinesterase levels, 6-h post-admission blood cholinesterase levels, cholinesterase activity, blood pH, and other factors. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify all prognostic factors and independent prognostic factors, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted to analyze the testing power of independent prognostic factors. Twelve of 71 subjects died. Admission blood lactate levels, 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates, blood pH, and APACHE II scores were identified as prognostic factors for AOPP according to the univariate analysis, whereas only 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates, and blood pH were independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic analysis suggested that post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates were of moderate diagnostic value. High 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, low blood pH, and low post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates were independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Copyright © 2016 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Pure Dead Brilliant?: Evaluating the Glasgow Story Digitisation Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Ian G.

2007-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present an evaluation of The Glasgow Story (TGS) digitisation project, funded by the UK's National Lottery's New Opportunities Fund digitisation (NOF-Digi) programme, and a critique of the evaluation process itself. The paper emphasises the need for user impact evaluation and for results to be brought into…

Prognostic discrimination for early chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia in imatinib era: comparison of Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores in Korean population.

PubMed

Yahng, Seung-Ah; Jang, Eun-Jung; Choi, Soo-Young; Lee, Sung-Eun; Kim, Soo-Hyun; Kim, Dong-Wook

2014-08-01

Beyond the conventional Sokal and Euro scores, a new prognostic risk classification, based on the European Treatment Outcome Study (EUTOS), has been developed to predict the outcome of treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the present study, each risk score was validated by various endpoints in 206 Korean patients with early chronic-phase CML treated with up-front standard dose imatinib. In our analysis, all three scores were found to be valid. The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) was significantly discriminated using Sokal (P = 0.002), Euro (P = 0.003), and EUTOS (P = 0.029), with the worst probability by Euro high-risk (62 vs. 49 vs. 67 %) and better EFS in Sokal low-risk (89 vs. 86 vs. 82 %). Combining all scores identified 6 % of all patients having homogeneous high-risk with distinctively worse outcomes (5-year EFS of 41 %, cumulative complete cytogenetic response rate of 56 %, and cumulative major molecular response rate of 27 %), whereas the group of discordance in risk scores (60 %) had similar results to those of intermediate-risk groups of Sokal and Euro scores. Combining all risk scores for baseline risk assessment may be useful in clinical practice for identifying groups of patients who may benefit from treatment initiation with a more potent TKI among the currently available first-line TKIs.

78 FR 67024 - Establishment of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-08

... aid, Glasgow, MT. A favorable comment from the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) was.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: History The FAA published a final rule in the Federal Register establishing Class E..., pursuant to the authority delegated to me, the description under the History heading, as published in the...

Prostate cancer: from Gleason scoring to prognostic grade grouping.

PubMed

Montironi, Rodolfo; Santoni, Matteo; Mazzucchelli, Roberta; Burattini, Luciano; Berardi, Rossana; Galosi, Andrea B; Cheng, Liang; Lopez-Beltran, Antonio; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Scarpelli, Marina

2016-01-01

The Gleason grading system was developed in the late 1960s by Dr. Donald F. Gleason. Due to changes in prostatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) detection and treatment, newer technologies to better characterize prostatic pathology, subsequently described variants of PAC and further data relating various morphologic patterns to prognosis, the application of the Gleason grading system changed substantially in surgical pathology. First in 2005 and more recently in 2014, consensus conferences were held to update PAC grading. Here, we review of the successive changes in the grading of PAC from the original system, with emphasis on the newest prognostic grade grouping.

Propensity Score Matching within Prognostic Strata

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelcey, Ben

2013-01-01

A central issue in nonexperimental studies is identifying comparable individuals to remove selection bias. One common way to address this selection bias is through propensity score (PS) matching. PS methods use a model of the treatment assignment to reduce the dimensionality of the covariate space and identify comparable individuals. parallel to…

Practical prognostic index for patients with metastatic recurrent breast cancer: retrospective analysis of 2,322 patients from the GEICAM Spanish El Alamo Register.

PubMed

Puente, Javier; López-Tarruella, Sara; Ruiz, Amparo; Lluch, Ana; Pastor, Miguel; Alba, Emilio; de la Haba, Juan; Ramos, Manuel; Cirera, Luis; Antón, Antonio; Llombart, Antoni; Plazaola, Arrate; Fernández-Aramburo, Antonio; Sastre, Javier; Díaz-Rubio, Eduardo; Martin, Miguel

2010-07-01

Women with recurrent metastatic breast cancer from a Spanish hospital registry (El Alamo, GEICAM) were analyzed in order to identify the most helpful prognostic factors to predict survival and to ultimately construct a practical prognostic index. The inclusion criteria covered women patients diagnosed with operable invasive breast cancer who had metastatic recurrence between 1990 and 1997 in GEICAM hospitals. Patients with stage IV breast cancer at initial diagnosis or with isolated loco-regional recurrence were excluded from this analysis. Data from 2,322 patients with recurrent breast cancer after primary treatment (surgery, radiation and systemic adjuvant treatment) were used to construct the prognostic index. The prognostic index score for each individual patient was calculated by totalling up the scores of each independent variable. The maximum score obtainable was 26.1. Nine-hundred and sixty-two patients who had complete data for all the variables were used in the computation of the prognostic index score. We were able to stratify them into three prognostic groups based on the prognostic index score: 322 patients in the good risk group (score < or =13.5), 308 patients in the intermediate risk group (score 13.51-15.60) and 332 patients in the poor risk group (score > or =15.61). The median survivals for these groups were 3.69, 2.27 and 1.02 years, respectively (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, risk scores are extraordinarily valuable tools, highly recommendable in the clinical practice.

A Genomic Score Prognostic of Outcome in Trauma Patients

PubMed Central

Warren, H Shaw; Elson, Constance M; Hayden, Douglas L; Schoenfeld, David A; Cobb, J Perren; Maier, Ronald V; Moldawer, Lyle L; Moore, Ernest E; Harbrecht, Brian G; Pelak, Kimberly; Cuschieri, Joseph; Herndon, David N; Jeschke, Marc G; Finnerty, Celeste C; Brownstein, Bernard H; Hennessy, Laura; Mason, Philip H; Tompkins, Ronald G

2009-01-01

Traumatic injuries frequently lead to infection, organ failure, and death. Health care providers rely on several injury scoring systems to quantify the extent of injury and to help predict clinical outcome. Physiological, anatomical, and clinical laboratory analytic scoring systems (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE], Injury Severity Score [ISS]) are utilized, with limited success, to predict outcome following injury. The recent development of techniques for measuring the expression level of all of a person’s genes simultaneously may make it possible to develop an injury scoring system based on the degree of gene activation. We hypothesized that a peripheral blood leukocyte gene expression score could predict outcome, including multiple organ failure, following severe blunt trauma. To test such a scoring system, we measured gene expression of peripheral blood leukocytes from patients within 12 h of traumatic injury. cRNA derived from whole blood leukocytes obtained within 12 h of injury provided gene expression data for the entire genome that were used to create a composite gene expression score for each patient. Total blood leukocytes were chosen because they are active during inflammation, which is reflective of poor outcome. The gene expression score combines the activation levels of all the genes into a single number which compares the patient’s gene expression to the average gene expression in uninjured volunteers. Expression profiles from healthy volunteers were averaged to create a reference gene expression profile which was used to compute a difference from reference (DFR) score for each patient. This score described the overall genomic response of patients within the first 12 h following severe blunt trauma. Regression models were used to compare the association of the DFR, APACHE, and ISS scores with outcome. We hypothesized that patients with a total gene response more different from uninjured volunteers would tend to have poorer

Modified TIME-H: a simplified scoring system for chronic wound management.

PubMed

Lim, K; Free, B; Sinha, S

2015-09-01

Chronic wound assessment requires a systematic approach in order to guide management and improve prognostication. Following a pilot study using the original TIME-H scoring system in chronic wound management, modifications were suggested leading to the development of the Modified TIME-H scoring system. This study investigates the feasibility and reliability of chronic wound prognostication applying the Modified TIME-H score. Patients referred to the hospital's outpatient wound clinic over a 9-month period were categorised into one of three predicted outcome categories based on their Modified TIME-H score. This study shows a higher proportion of patients in the certain healing category achieved healed wounds, with a higher rate of reduction in wound size, when compared with the other categories. The three categories defined in this study are certain healing, uncertain healing and difficult healing. The Modified TIME-H score could be a useful tool for assessment, patient-centred management and prognostication of chronic wounds in clinical practice and requires further validation from other institutions. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Prognostic Value of Metabolic Liver Function Tests: a Study on 711 Cirrhotic Patients.

PubMed

Lebossé, Fanny; Guillaud, Olivier; Forestier, Julien; Ecochard, Marie; Boillot, Olivier; Roman, Sabine; Mion, François; Dumortier, Jérôme

2016-09-01

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients is usually assessed by Child-Pugh and MELD scores. Metabolic liver function tests such as aminopyrine breath test (ABT) and indocyanine green clearance (IGC) have been shown to reveal hepatocellular dysfunction. The aim of this retrospective study was to compare the prognostic value of the MELD score, Child-Pugh score, ABT and IGC in a large cohort of cirrhotic patients. Between January 1996 and June 2008, 711 cirrhotic patients were included and the primary endpoint was survival without LT. The ROC curves with c-statistics, correlation coefficient and survival were calculated. Metabolic function tests and scores were strongly correlated. At the time of evaluation, 111 patients had died and 520 had received a transplant. Prognostic ability (estimated by the AUROC curve) to predict survival without LT at 6 months was 0.662, 0.691, 0.738 and 0.715 for ABT, IGC, Child-Pugh score and MELD score, respectively. Similarly, at 1 year, AUROC was 0.738 for Child-Pugh score, 0.716 for MELD score, 0.693 for IGC clearance and 0.651 for ABT. Our results strongly confirm that IGC and ABT have a high prognostic value in cirrhotic patients, similar to Child-Pugh and MELD scores. They could be developed to routinely evaluate the prognosis of patients in addition to clinical and biochemical data.

Prognostic Factors in Cholinesterase Inhibitor Poisoning.

PubMed

Sun, In O; Yoon, Hyun Ju; Lee, Kwang Young

2015-09-28

Organophosphates and carbamates are insecticides that are associated with high human mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors affecting survival in patients with cholinesterase inhibitor (CI) poisoning. This study included 92 patients with CI poisoning in the period from January 2005 to August 2013. We divided these patients into 2 groups (survivors vs. non-survivors), compared their clinical characteristics, and analyzed the predictors of survival. The mean age of the included patients was 56 years (range, 16-88). The patients included 57 (62%) men and 35 (38%) women. When we compared clinical characteristics between the survivor group (n=81, 88%) and non-survivor group (n=11, 12%), there were no differences in renal function, pancreatic enzymes, or serum cholinesterase level, except for serum bicarbonate level and APACHE II score. The serum bicarbonate level was lower in non-survivors than in survivors (12.45±2.84 vs. 18.36±4.73, P<0.01). The serum APACHE II score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (24.36±5.22 vs. 12.07±6.67, P<0.01). The development of pneumonia during hospitalization was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (n=9, 82% vs. n=31, 38%, P<0.01). In multiple logistic regression analysis, serum bicarbonate concentration, APACHE II score, and pneumonia during hospitalization were the important prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Serum bicarbonate and APACHE II score are useful prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Furthermore, pneumonia during hospitalization was also important in predicting prognosis in patients with CI poisoning. Therefore, prevention and active treatment of pneumonia is important in the management of patients with CI poisoning.

Evaluation of the BISAP scoring system in prognostication of acute pancreatitis - A prospective observational study.

PubMed

Hagjer, Sumitra; Kumar, Nitesh

2018-04-21

Severe acute pancreatitis has a high mortality and its early identification is important for management and risk stratification. The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is a simple scoring system done at admission which predicts the severity of pancreatitis. Procalcitonin is an inflammatory marker which is raised very early and helps in early prediction of the severity of disease. This study aims to evaluate the BISAP score and Procalcitonin in prognostication of acute pancreatitis. A prospective observational study of 60 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis was done at XXX Medical College and Hospital from July 2015 to June 2016. BISAP, APACHE-II, Ranson criteria, and CT severity index (CTSI) of all patients were calculated. Procalcitonin card test was done for all patients. The patients were stratified according by BISAP score and procalcitonin positivity into categories of severe pancreatitis, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, as well as the number of deaths. The comparison of BISAP with other scoring systems, Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit, and body mass index (BMI) was done by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) to prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, necrosis, and death. Of the 60 patients, 14 (23.3%) developed severe acute pancreatitis, 11 (18.3%) Organ failure, 21 (35%) pancreatic necrosis and 7 (11.6%) died. A BISAP score of ≥3 was a statistically significant cutoff value. AUCs for predicting severe pancreatitis and death of BISAP were 0.875 and 0.740respectively, similar to those for Ranson criteria (0.802, 0.763) and APACHE-II (0.891, 0.769) and greater than AUCs for CTSI (0.641, 0.554). The AUC for prediction of organ failure were 0.906, 0.833, 0.874 and 0.623 for BISAP, Ranson criteria, APACHE-II, and CTSI respectively. AUCs for PCT predicting severity, organ failure, and death were 0.940, 0.923 and 0.769 respectively were similar to BISAP but greater than

Development of a prognostic tool for the occurrence of feather pecking and cannibalism in laying hens.

PubMed

Kaesberg, A-K U; Louton, H; Erhard, M; Schmidt, P; Zepp, M; Helmer, F; Schwarzer, A

2018-03-01

In July 2015, a German voluntary decree stipulated that the keeping of beak-trimmed laying hens after the 1st of January 2017 will no longer be permitted. Simultaneously, the present project was initiated to validate a newly developed prognostic tool for laying hen farmers to forecast, at the beginning of a laying period, the probability of future problems with feather pecking and cannibalism in their flock. For this purpose, we used a computer-based prognostic tool in form of a questionnaire that was easy and quick to complete and facilitated comparisons of different flocks. It contained various possible risk factors that were classified into 3 score categories (1 = "no need for action," 2 = "intermediate need for action," 3 = "instant need for action"). For the validation of this tool, 43 flocks of 41 farms were examined twice, at the beginning of the laying period (around the 20th wk of life) and around the 67th wk of life. At both visits, the designated investigators filled out the questionnaire and assessed the plumage condition and the skin lesions (as indicators of occurrence of feather pecking and cannibalism) of 50 laying hens of each flock. The average prognostic score of the first visit was compared with the existence of feather pecking and cannibalism in each flock at the end of the laying period. The results showed that the prognostic score was negatively correlated with the plumage score (r = -0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: [-0.56; -0.02]) and positively correlated with the skin lesion score (r = 0.38; 95% CI: [0.09; 0.61]). These relationships demonstrate that a better prognostic score was associated with a better plumage and skin lesion score. After performing a principal component analysis on the single scores, we found that only 6 components are sufficient to obtain highly sensitive and specific prognostic results. Thus, the data of this analysis should be used for creating applicable software for use on laying hen farms.

Childhood Hodgkin International Prognostic Score (CHIPS) Predicts event-free survival in Hodgkin Lymphoma: A Report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Schwartz, Cindy L; Chen, Lu; McCarten, Kathleen; Wolden, Suzanne; Constine, Louis S; Hutchison, Robert E; de Alarcon, Pedro A; Keller, Frank G; Kelly, Kara M; Trippet, Tanya A; Voss, Stephan D; Friedman, Debra L

2017-04-01

Early response to initial chemotherapy in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) measured by computed tomography (CT) and/or positron emission tomography (PET) after two to three cycles of chemotherapy may inform therapeutic decisions. Risk stratification at diagnosis could, however, allow earlier and potentially more efficacious treatment modifications. We developed a predictive model for event-free survival (EFS) in pediatric/adolescent HL using clinical data known at diagnosis from 1103 intermediate-risk HL patients treated on Children's Oncology Group protocol AHOD0031 with doxorubicin, bleomycin, vincristine, etoposide, prednisone, cyclophosphamide (ABVE-PC) chemotherapy and radiation. Independent predictors of EFS were identified and used to develop and validate a prognostic score (Childhood Hodgkin International Prognostic Score [CHIPS]). A training cohort was randomly selected to include approximately half of the overall cohort, with the remainder forming the validation cohort. Stage 4 disease, large mediastinal mass, albumin (<3.5), and fever were independent predictors of EFS that were each assigned one point in the CHIPS.  Four-year EFS was 93.1% for patients with CHIPS = 0, 88.5% for patients with CHIPS = 1, 77.6% for patients with CHIPS = 2, and 69.2% for patients with CHIPS = 3. CHIPS was highly predictive of EFS, identifying a subset (with CHIPS 2 or 3) that comprises 27% of intermediate-risk patients who have a 4-year EFS of <80% and who may benefit from early therapeutic augmentation.  Furthermore, CHIPS identified higher risk patients who were not identified by early PET or CT response. CHIPS is a robust and inexpensive approach to predicting risk in patients with intermediate-risk HL that may improve ability to tailor therapy to risk factors known at diagnosis. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pediatric trauma BIG score: predicting mortality in children after military and civilian trauma.

PubMed

Borgman, Matthew A; Maegele, Marc; Wade, Charles E; Blackbourne, Lorne H; Spinella, Philip C

2011-04-01

To develop a validated mortality prediction score for children with traumatic injuries. We identified all children (<18 years of age) in the US military established Joint Theater Trauma Registry from 2002 to 2009 who were admitted to combat-support hospitals with traumatic injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan. We identified factors associated with mortality using univariate and then multivariate regression modeling. The developed mortality prediction score was then validated on a data set of pediatric patients (≤ 18 years of age) from the German Trauma Registry, 2002-2007. Admission base deficit, international normalized ratio, and Glasgow Coma Scale were independently associated with mortality in 707 patients from the derivation set and 1101 patients in the validation set. These variables were combined into the pediatric "BIG" score (base deficit + [2.5 × international normalized ratio] + [15 - Glasgow Coma Scale), which were each calculated to have an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.95) and 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.87-0.92) on the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The pediatric trauma BIG score is a simple method that can be performed rapidly on admission to evaluate severity of illness and predict mortality in children with traumatic injuries. The score has been shown to be accurate in both penetrating-injury and blunt-injury populations and may have significant utility in comparing severity of injury in future pediatric trauma research and quality-assurance studies. In addition, this score may be used to determine inclusion criteria on admission for prospective studies when accurately estimating the mortality for sample size calculation is required.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a prognostic scoring system based on the systemic inflammatory and nutritional status of patients with locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Mitsuyoshi, Takamasa; Matsuo, Yukinori; Itou, Hitoshi; Shintani, Takashi; Iizuka, Yusuke; Kim, Young Hak; Mizowaki, Takashi

2018-01-01

Systemic inflammation and poor nutritional status have a negative effect on the outcomes of cancer. Here, we analyzed the effects of the pretreatment inflammatory and nutritional status on clinical outcomes of locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. We retrospectively reviewed 89 patients with locally advanced NSCLC treated with chemoradiotherapy between July 2006 and June 2013. Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) was assessed as an inflammatory marker, and serum albumin, body mass index (BMI) and skeletal mass index were assessed as nutritional status markers. The relationships between these markers and overall survival (OS) were assessed. The median OS was 24.6 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 19.4-39.3 months]. During follow-up, 58 patients (65%) had disease recurrence and 52 patients (58%) died. In multivariate Cox hazard analysis, CRP levels and BMI approached but did not achieve a significant association with OS (P = 0.062 and 0.094, respectively). Recursive partitioning analysis identified three prognostic groups based on hazard similarity (CRP-BMI scores): 0 = CRP < 0.3 mg/dl, 1 = CRP ≥ 0.3 mg/dl and BMI ≥ 18.5 kg/m2, and 2 = CRP ≥ 0.3 mg/dl and BMI < 18.5 kg/m2. The CRP-BMI score was significantly associated with OS (P = 0.023). Patients with scores of 0, 1 and 2 had median OS of 39.3, 24.5 and 14.5 months, respectively, and the scores also predicted the probability of receiving salvage treatment after recurrence. The CRP-BMI score is thus a simple and useful prognostic marker of clinical outcome for patients with locally advanced NSCLC treated with chemoradiotherapy. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

A New Prognostic Staging System for Rectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Ueno, Hideki; Price, Ashley B.; Wilkinson, Kay H.; Jass, Jeremy R.; Mochizuki, Hidetaka; Talbot, Ian C.

2004-01-01

Objective: To clarify the appropriateness of tumor “budding,” a quantifiable histologic variable, as 1 parameter in the construction of a new prognostic grading system for rectal cancer. Summary Background Data: Patient division according to an accurate prognostic prediction could enhance the effectiveness of postoperative adjuvant therapy and follow-up. Patients and Methods: Tumor budding was defined as an isolated cancer cell or a cluster composed of fewer than 5 cells in the invasive frontal region, and was divided into 2 grades based on its number within a microscopic field of ×250. We analyzed 2 discrete cohorts comprising 638 and 476 patients undergoing potentially curative surgery. Results: In the first cohort, high-grade budding (10 or more foci in a field) was observed in 30% of patients and was significantly associated with a lower 5-year survival rate (41%) than low-grade budding (84%). Similarly, in the second cohort, the 5-year survival rate was 43% in high-grade budding patients and 83% in low-grade budding patients. In both cohorts, multivariate analyses verified budding to be an independent prognosticator, together with nodal involvement and extramural spread. These 3 variables were given weighted scores, and the score range was divided to provide 5 prognostic groups (97%; 86%; 61%; 39%; 17% 5-year survival). The model was tested on the second cohort, and similar prognostic results were obtained. Conclusions: We propose that because of its relevance to prognosis and its reproducibility, budding is an excellent parameter for use in a grading system to provide a confident prediction of clinical outcome. PMID:15492565

Elevated C-reactive protein and hypoalbuminemia measured before resection of colorectal liver metastases predict postoperative survival.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

2010-01-01

Few studies have investigated whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score measured before resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM), can predict postoperative survival. Sixty-three consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for CRLM were investigated. GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/l) were allocated a GPS score of 2. Patients in whom only one of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS score of 1, and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. Significant factors concerning survival were the number of liver metastases (p = 0.0044), carcinoembryonic antigen level (p = 0.0191), GPS (p = 0.0029), grade of liver metastasis (p = 0.0033), and the number of lymph node metastases around the primary cancer (p = 0.0087). Multivariate analysis showed the two independent prognostic variables: liver metastases > or =3 (relative risk 2.83) and GPS1/2 (relative risk 3.07). GPS measured before operation and the number of liver metastases may be used as novel predictors of postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent curative resection for CRLM. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Glasgow marathons 1982-1987. A review of medical problems.

PubMed

Ridley, S A; Rogers, P N; Wright, I H

1990-02-01

The race statistics, whether conditions and incidence of medical problems for the six consecutive years of the Glasgow Marathon are reviewed. The results suggest that the popularity of marathon running is declining but that the competitors are becoming more experienced, seeking medical assistance earlier and, as a result, experiencing fewer and less serious problems at the finish. The effect of weather conditions on the runners' performance is discussed.

Prognostic model for survival in patients with early stage cervical cancer.

PubMed

Biewenga, Petra; van der Velden, Jacobus; Mol, Ben Willem J; Stalpers, Lukas J A; Schilthuis, Marten S; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Burger, Matthé P M; Buist, Marrije R

2011-02-15

In the management of early stage cervical cancer, knowledge about the prognosis is critical. Although many factors have an impact on survival, their relative importance remains controversial. This study aims to develop a prognostic model for survival in early stage cervical cancer patients and to reconsider grounds for adjuvant treatment. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to identify the prognostic weight of clinical and histological factors for disease-specific survival (DSS) in 710 consecutive patients who had surgery for early stage cervical cancer (FIGO [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics] stage IA2-IIA). Prognostic scores were derived by converting the regression coefficients for each prognostic marker and used in a score chart. The discriminative capacity was expressed as the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. The 5-year DSS was 92%. Tumor diameter, histological type, lymph node metastasis, depth of stromal invasion, lymph vascular space invasion, and parametrial extension were independently associated with DSS and were included in a Cox regression model. This prognostic model, corrected for the 9% overfit shown by internal validation, showed a fair discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.73). The derived score chart predicting 5-year DSS showed a good discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.85). In patients with early stage cervical cancer, DSS can be predicted with a statistical model. Models, such as that presented here, should be used in clinical trials on the effects of adjuvant treatments in high-risk early cervical cancer patients, both to stratify and to include patients. Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society.

Prognostic Factors for Recovery After Anterior Debridement/Bone Grafting and Posterior Instrumentation for Lumbar Spinal Tuberculosis.

PubMed

Yao, Yuan; Zhang, Huiyu; Liu, Huan; Zhang, Zhengfeng; Tang, Yu; Zhou, Yue

2017-08-01

Anterior debridement/bone grafting/posterior instrumentation is a common selection for the treatment of lumbar spinal tuberculosis (LST). To date, no study has focused on the prognostic factors for recovery after this surgery. We included 144 patients who experienced anterior debridement/bone grafting/posterior instrumentation for LST. The recovery rate based on the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score was used to assess recovery. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to identify the prognostic factors for recovery postoperatively. For the prognostic factors worth further consideration, the changes in JOA scores within the 24-month follow-up period were identified by repeated-measures analysis of variance. Paralysis/nonparalysis, duration of symptoms (≥3/<3 months), number of involved vertebrae (>2/≤2), and posterior open/percutaneous instrumentation were identified as prognostic factors for recovery postoperatively. The prognostic factor of open/percutaneous instrumentation was then further compared for potential clinical application. Patients in the percutaneous instrumentation group achieved higher JOA scores than those in the open instrumentation group in the early stages postoperatively (1-3 months), but this effect equalized at 6 months postoperatively. Patients in the open instrumentation group experienced longer operation time and less cost than those in the percutaneous instrumentation group. Nonparalysis, shorter symptom duration, fewer involved vertebrae, and posterior percutaneous instrumentation (compared with open instrumentation) are considered favorable prognostic factors. Patients in the percutaneous instrumentation group achieved higher JOA scores than those in the open instrumentation group in the early stages postoperatively (1-3 months), but no significant difference was observed in long-term JOA scores (6-24 months). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predicted Unfavorable Neurologic Outcome Is Overestimated by the Marshall Computed Tomography Score, Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH), and International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) Models in Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Managed with Early Decompressive Craniectomy.

PubMed

Charry, Jose D; Tejada, Jorman H; Pinzon, Miguel A; Tejada, Wilson A; Ochoa, Juan D; Falla, Manuel; Tovar, Jesus H; Cuellar-Bahamón, Ana M; Solano, Juan P

2017-05-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is of public health interest and produces significant mortality and disability in Colombia. Calculators and prognostic models have been developed to establish neurologic outcomes. We tested prognostic models (the Marshall computed tomography [CT] score, International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT), and Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury) for 14-day mortality, 6-month mortality, and 6-month outcome in patients with TBI at a university hospital in Colombia. A 127-patient cohort with TBI was treated in a regional trauma center in Colombia over 2 years and bivariate and multivariate analyses were used. Discriminatory power of the models, their accuracy, and precision was assessed by both logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Shapiro-Wilk, χ 2 , and Wilcoxon test were used to compare real outcomes in the cohort against predicted outcomes. The group's median age was 33 years, and 84.25% were male. The injury severity score median was 25, and median Glasgow Coma Scale motor score was 3. Six-month mortality was 29.13%. Six-month unfavorable outcome was 37%. Mortality prediction by Marshall CT score was 52.8%, P = 0.104 (AUC 0.585; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0 0.489-0.681), the mortality prediction by CRASH prognosis calculator was 59.9%, P < 0.001 (AUC 0.706; 95% CI 0.590-0.821), and the unfavorable outcome prediction by IMPACT was 77%, P < 0.048 (AUC 0.670; 95% CI 0.575-0.763). In a university hospital in Colombia, the Marshall CT score, IMPACT, and Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury models overestimated the adverse neurologic outcome in patients with severe head trauma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing pediatric Injury Severity Score and Glasgow Coma Scale in pediatric automobile crashes: results from the Crash Injury Research Engineering Network.

PubMed

Ehrlich, Peter F; Brown, J Kristine; Sochor, Mark R; Wang, Stewart C; Eichelberger, Martin E

2006-11-01

Motor vehicle crashes account for more than 50% of pediatric injuries. Triage of pediatric patients to appropriate centers can be based on the crash/injury characteristics. Pediatric motor vehicle crash/injury characteristics can be determined from an in vitro laboratory using child crash dummies. However, to date, no detailed data with respect to outcomes and crash mechanism have been presented with a pediatric in vivo model. The Crash Injury Research Engineering Network is comprised of 10 level 1 trauma centers. Crashes were examined with regard to age, crash severity (DeltaV), crash direction, restraint use, and airbag deployment. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed with Injury Severity Score (ISS) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) as outcomes. Standard age groupings (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18) were used. The database is biases toward a survivor population with few fatalities. Four hundred sixty-one motor vehicle crashes with 2500 injuries were analyzed (242 boys, 219 girls). Irrespective of age, DeltaV > 30 mph resulted in increased ISS and decreased GCS (eg, for 0-4 years, DeltaV < 30: ISS = 10, GCS = 13.5 vs DeltaV > 30: ISS = 19.5, GCS = 10.6; P < .007, < .002, respectively). Controlling for DeltaV, children in lateral crashes had increased ISS and decreased GCS versus those in frontal crashes. Airbag deployment was protective for children 15 to 18 years old and resulted in a lower ISS and higher GCS (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 0.9-4.6). Front-seat passengers suffered more severe (ISS > 15) injuries than did backseat passengers (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 0.7-3.4). A trend was noted for children younger than 12 years sitting in the front seat to have increased ISS and decreased GCS with airbag deployment but was limited by case number. A reproducible pattern of increased ISS and lower GCS characterized by high severity, lateral crashes in children was noted. Further analysis of the specific injuries as a function and

Decompressive Craniectomy for Traumatic Brain Injury: The Role of Cranioplasty and Hydrocephalus on Outcome.

PubMed

Nasi, Davide; Dobran, Mauro; Di Rienzo, Alessandro; di Somma, Lucia; Gladi, Maurizio; Moriconi, Elisa; Scerrati, Massimo; Iacoangeli, Maurizio

2018-05-14

After severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) associated with uncontrollable high intracranial pressure (ICP), today the main challenge for neurosurgeons remains to identify who may obtain benefit from decompressive craniectomy (DC) and which factors after DC influence the prognosis of these patients. The aim of this paper was to identify the pre- and postoperative determinants of outcome after DC. This retrospective study included all patients undergoing DC for sTBI from 2003 to 2011. The 6-month outcome, assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS), was dichotomized into favorable (GOS scores 4 and 5) and unfavorable (GOS scores 1-3) outcome. Predictors of outcome were identified by uni- and multivariate analysis. There were 190 patients who underwent DC for sTBI in this study. Sixty patients (31.6%) died within 30 days after DC. Independent prognostic factors for survival after 30 days were Glasgow Coma Scale score at admission greater than 5 (P = 0.002) and bilateral pupil reactivity (P < 0.0001). Thirty days after DC, 67 patients (51.5%) out of 130 had unfavorable outcome (GOS scores 1-3) and 63 patients (49.5%) presented favorable outcome (GOS scores 4 and 5). The independent preoperative prognostic factors for poor outcome were age over 65 years (P < 0.0001) and bilateral absence of pupil reactivity (P = 0.0165). After DC, onset of postoperative hydrocephalus and delayed cranioplasty (3 months after DC) was associated with unfavorable outcome at multivariate analysis (P = 0.002 and P < 0.0001, respectively). In our study, the development of hydrocephalus after DC for sTBI and delayed cranial reconstruction were associated with unfavorable outcome. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early myeloma-related death in elderly patients: development of a clinical prognostic score and evaluation of response sustainability role.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Otero, Paula; Mateos, María Victoria; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Martín-Calvo, Nerea; Hernández, Miguel-Teodoro; Ocio, Enrique M; Rosiñol, Laura; Martínez, Rafael; Teruel, Ana-Isabel; Gutiérrez, Norma C; Bargay, Joan; Bengoechea, Enrique; González, Yolanda; de Oteyza, Jaime Pérez; Gironella, Mercedes; Encinas, Cristina; Martín, Jesús; Cabrera, Carmen; Palomera, Luis; de Arriba, Felipe; Cedena, María Teresa; Paiva, Bruno; Puig, Noemí; Oriol, Albert; Bladé, Joan; Lahuerta, Juan José; San Miguel, Jesús F

2018-02-23

Although survival of elderly myeloma patients has significantly improved there is still a subset of patients who, despite being fit and achieving optimal responses, will die within 2 years of diagnosis due to myeloma progression. The objective of this study was to define a scoring prognostic index to identify this group of patients. We have evaluated the outcome of 490 newly diagnosed elderly myeloma patients included in two Spanish trials (GEM2005-GEM2010). Sixty-eight patients (13.8%) died within 2 years of diagnosis (early deaths) due to myeloma progression. Our study shows that the use of simple scoring model based on 4 widely available markers (elevated LDH, ISS 3, high risk CA or >75 years) can contribute to identify up-front these patients. Moreover, unsustained response (<6 months duration) emerged as one important predictor of early myeloma-related mortality associated with a significant increase in the risk of death related to myeloma progression. The identification of these patients at high risk of early death is relevant for innovative trials aiming to maintain the depth of first response, since many of them will not receive subsequent lines of therapy.

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients.

PubMed

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-09-29

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients.

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients. PMID:29100405

N-terminal fraction of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide versus clinical risk scores for prognostic stratification in chronic systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Arzilli, Chiara; Aimo, Alberto; Vergaro, Giuseppe; Ripoli, Andrea; Senni, Michele; Emdin, Michele; Passino, Claudio

2018-05-01

Background The Seattle heart failure model or the cardiac and comorbid conditions (3C-HF) scores may help define patient risk in heart failure. Direct comparisons between them or versus N-terminal fraction of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) have never been performed. Methods Data from consecutive patients with stable systolic heart failure and 3C-HF data were examined. A subgroup of patients had the Seattle heart failure model data available. The endpoints were one year all-cause or cardiovascular death. Results The population included 2023 patients, aged 68 ± 12 years, 75% were men. At the one year time-point, 198 deaths were recorded (10%), 124 of them (63%) from cardiovascular causes. While areas under the curve were not significantly different, NT-proBNP displayed better reclassification capability than the 3C-HF score for the prediction of one year all-cause and cardiovascular death. Adding NT-proBNP to the 3C-HF score resulted in a significant improvement in risk prediction. Among patients with Seattle heart failure model data available ( n = 798), the area under the curve values for all-cause and cardiovascular death were similar for the Seattle heart failure model score (0.790 and 0.820), NT-proBNP (0.783 and 0.803), and the 3C-HF score (0.770 and 0.800). The combination of the 3C-HF score and NT-proBNP displayed a similar prognostic performance to the Seattle heart failure model score for both endpoints. Adding NT-proBNP to the Seattle heart failure model score performed better than the Seattle heart failure model alone in terms of reclassification, but not discrimination. Conclusions Among systolic heart failure patients, NT-proBNP levels had better reclassification capability for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the 3C-HF score. The inclusion of NT-proBNP to the 3C-HF and Seattle heart failure model score resulted in significantly better risk stratification.

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

PubMed

George, Elizabeth C; Walker, A Sarah; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Akech, Samuel O; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Berkley, James A; Mpoya, Ayub; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Gibb, Diana M; Maitland, Kathryn; Babiker, Abdel G

2015-07-31

Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally

Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Guerra, Beniamino; Haile, Sarah R; Lamprecht, Bernd; Ramírez, Ana S; Martinez-Camblor, Pablo; Kaiser, Bernhard; Alfageme, Inmaculada; Almagro, Pere; Casanova, Ciro; Esteban-González, Cristóbal; Soler-Cataluña, Juan J; de-Torres, Juan P; Miravitlles, Marc; Celli, Bartolome R; Marin, Jose M; Ter Riet, Gerben; Sobradillo, Patricia; Lange, Peter; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Antó, Josep M; Turner, Alice M; Han, Meilan K; Langhammer, Arnulf; Leivseth, Linda; Bakke, Per; Johannessen, Ane; Oga, Toru; Cosio, Borja; Ancochea-Bermúdez, Julio; Echazarreta, Andres; Roche, Nicolas; Burgel, Pierre-Régis; Sin, Don D; Soriano, Joan B; Puhan, Milo A

2018-03-02

External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD. We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores. Depending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile-3rd quartile = 0.655-0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUC ADO - AUC BODE = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUC BODE updated - AUC BODE = 0.008 [95% CI = -0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency. Our analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC

Incremental prognostic value of biomarkers beyond the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Widera, Christian; Pencina, Michael J; Bobadilla, Maria; Reimann, Ines; Guba-Quint, Anja; Marquardt, Ivonne; Bethmann, Kerstin; Korf-Klingebiel, Mortimer; Kempf, Tibor; Lichtinghagen, Ralf; Katus, Hugo A; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Wollert, Kai C

2013-10-01

Guidelines recommend the use of validated risk scores and a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assay for risk assessment in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). The incremental prognostic value of biomarkers in this context is unknown. We calculated the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score and measured the circulating concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and 8 selected cardiac biomarkers on admission in 1146 patients with NSTE-ACS. We used an hs-cTnT threshold at the 99th percentile of a reference population to define increased cardiac marker in the score. The magnitude of the increase in model performance when individual biomarkers were added to GRACE was assessed by the change (Δ) in the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and category-free net reclassification improvement [NRI(>0)]. Seventy-eight patients reached the combined end point of 6-month all-cause mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction. The GRACE score alone had an AUC of 0.749. All biomarkers were associated with the risk of the combined end point and offered statistically significant improvement in model performance when added to GRACE (likelihood ratio test P ≤ 0.015). Growth differentiation factor 15 [ΔAUC 0.039, IDI 0.049, NRI(>0) 0.554] and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [ΔAUC 0.024, IDI 0.027, NRI(>0) 0.438] emerged as the 2 most promising biomarkers. Improvements in model performance upon addition of a second biomarker were small in magnitude. Biomarkers can add prognostic information to the GRACE score even in the current era of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays. The incremental information offered by individual biomarkers varies considerably, however.

Incremental prognostic value of cardiac computed tomography angiography in asymptomatic aortic stenosis: significance of aortic valve calcium score.

PubMed

Utsunomiya, Hiroto; Yamamoto, Hideya; Kitagawa, Toshiro; Kunita, Eiji; Urabe, Yoji; Tsushima, Hiroshi; Hidaka, Takayuki; Awai, Kazuo; Kihara, Yasuki

2013-10-15

Cardiac computed tomography angiography (CCTA) provides the simultaneous evaluation of the aortic valve, myocardium, and coronary arteries. In particular, aortic valve calcium score (AVCS) can be accurately measured on the same scanning sequence used to measure coronary artery calcification, with no additional cost or radiation exposure. We sought to evaluate the prognostic value of CCTA measures, including AVCS, in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). Sixty-four initially asymptomatic patients with AS with a normal ejection fraction were prospectively enrolled and followed for median 29 (IQR=18-50) months. During follow-up, 27 (42%) patients experienced cardiac events, including five cardiac deaths, eleven aortic valve replacements. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis identified three CCTA measures as significant predictors of cardiac events: aortic valve area (per 0.1cm(2) decrease; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.34); multi-vessel obstructive coronary artery disease (HR: 2.84, 95% CI: 1.10-7.32); and AVCS (per 100; HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.15). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with AVCS greater than or equal to the median value of 723 had significantly worse outcomes than those with AVCS less than 723 (p<0.0001). The C-statistic value for cardiac events substantially increased when these CCTA measures were added to clinical characteristics plus echocardiographic peak transaortic velocity (0.913 vs. 0.702, p<0.001). In patients with asymptomatic AS, CCTA measures of valve area, coronary stenosis, and calcification severity provide independent and incremental prognostic value after accounting for the echocardiographic severity of stenosis. © 2013.

Street connectivity and obesity in Glasgow, Scotland: impact of age, sex and socioeconomic position.

PubMed

Ball, Kylie; Lamb, Karen; Travaglini, Noemi; Ellaway, Anne

2012-11-01

This study investigated associations of street connectivity with body mass index (BMI), and whether these associations varied by sex, age and socioeconomic position, amongst adults in Glasgow, Scotland. Data on socio-demographic variables, height and weight were collected from 1062 participants in the Greater Glasgow Health and Well-being Study, and linked with neighbourhood-level census and geo-referenced data on area level deprivation and street connectivity. Results of multilevel models showed that, after adjustment for individual level covariates, street connectivity was not significantly associated with either BMI or BMI category; nor were there any significant interactions between age, sex or socioeconomic position and street connectivity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incremental prognostic value of the SYNTAX score to late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance images for patients with stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Kato, Shingo; Saito, Naka; Kirigaya, Hidekuni; Gyotoku, Daiki; Iinuma, Naoki; Kusakawa, Yuka; Iguchi, Kohei; Nakachi, Tatsuya; Fukui, Kazuki; Futaki, Masaaki; Iwasawa, Tae; Taguri, Masataka; Kimura, Kazuo; Umemura, Satoshi

2016-06-01

The prognostic significance of the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and cardiac surgery) score has recently been demonstrated in patients with stable multivessel or left main coronary artery disease (CAD). The present study determines whether adding the SYNTAX score to Framingham risk score (FRS), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and presence of myocardial infarction (MI) by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) magnetic resonance imaging can improve the risk stratification in patients with stable CAD. We calculated the SYNTAX score in 161 patients with stable CAD (mean age: 66 ± 10 years old). During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 56 (35 %) of 161 patients developed cardiovascular events defined as cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, cerebral infarction, unstable angina pectoris, hospitalization due to heart failure and revascularization. Multivariate Cox regression analysis selected triglycerides [hazard ratio (HR): 1.005 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.001-1.008), p < 0.008], presence of LGE [HR: 6.329 (95 % CI: 2.662-15.05), p < 0.001] and the SYNTAX score [HR: 1.085 (95 % CI: 1.044-1.127), p < 0.001] as risk factors for future cardiovascular events. Adding the SYNTAX score to FRS, EF and LGE significantly improved the net reclassification index (NRI) [40.4 % (95 % CI: 18.1-54.8 %), p < 0.05] with an increase in C-statistics of 0.089 (from 0.707 to 0.796). An increase in C-statistics and significant improvement of NRI showed that adding the SYNTAX score to the FRS, LVEF and LGE incrementally improved risk stratification in patient with stable CAD.

Incremental prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography over coronary calcium scoring for major adverse cardiac events in elderly asymptomatic individuals

PubMed Central

Han, Donghee; Hartaigh, Bríain Ó; Gransar, Heidi; Lee, Ji Hyun; Rizvi, Asim; Baskaran, Lohendran; Schulman-Marcus, Joshua; Dunning, Allison; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Maffei, Erica; Callister, Tracy Q; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; DeLago, Augustin; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Raff, Gilbert; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Cury, Ricardo C; Pontone, Gianluca; Andreini, Daniele; Marques, Hugo; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Hindoyan, Niree; Jones, Erica C; Gomez, Millie; Lin, Fay Y; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Min, James K

2018-01-01

Abstract Aims Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) have prognostic value for coronary artery disease (CAD) events beyond traditional risk assessment. Age is a risk factor with very high weight and little is known regarding the incremental value of CCTA over CAC for predicting cardiac events in older adults. Methods and results Of 27 125 individuals undergoing CCTA, a total of 3145 asymptomatic adults were identified. This study sample was categorized according to tertiles of age (cut-off points: 52 and 62 years). CAD severity was classified as 0, 1–49, and ≥50% maximal stenosis in CCTA, and further categorized according to number of vessels ≥50% stenosis. The Framingham 10-year risk score (FRS) and CACS were employed as major covariates. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were defined as a composite of all-cause death or non-fatal MI. During a median follow-up of 26 months (interquartile range: 18–41 months), 59 (1.9%) MACE occurred. For patients in the top age tertile, CCTA improved discrimination beyond a model included FRS and CACS (C-statistic: 0.75 vs. 0.70, P-value = 0.015). Likewise, the addition of CCTA improved category-free net reclassification (cNRI) of MACE in patients within the highest age tertile (e.g. cNRI = 0.75; proportion of events/non-events reclassified were 50 and 25%, respectively; P-value <0.05, all). CCTA displayed no incremental benefit beyond FRS and CACS for prediction of MACE in the lower age tertiles. Conclusion CCTA provides added prognostic value beyond cardiac risk factors and CACS for the prediction of MACE in asymptomatic older adults. PMID:28977374

Childhood Hodgkin International Prognostic Score (CHIPS) Predicts event-free survival in Hodgkin Lymphoma: A Report from the Children’s Oncology Group

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Cindy L.; Chen, Lu; McCarten, Kathleen; Wolden, Suzanne; Constine, Louis S.; Hutchison, Robert E.; de Alarcon, Pedro A.; Keller, Frank G.; Kelly, Kara M.; Trippet, Tanya A.; Voss, Stephan D.; Friedman, Debra L.

2017-01-01

Background Early response to initial chemotherapy in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) measured by computed tomography (CT) and/or positron emission tomography (PET) after two to three cycles of chemotherapy may inform therapeutic decisions. Risk stratification at diagnosis could, however, allow earlier and potentially more efficacious treatment modifications. Patients and Methods We developed a predictive model for event-free survival (EFS) in pediatric/adolescent HL using clinical data known at diagnosis from 1103 intermediate-risk HL patients treated on Children’s Oncology Group protocol AHOD0031 with doxorubicin, bleomycin, vincristine, etoposide, prednisone, cyclophosphamide (ABVE-PC) chemotherapy and radiation. Independent predictors of EFS were identified and used to develop and validate a prognostic score (Childhood Hodgkin International Prognostic Score [CHIPS]). A training cohort was randomly selected to include approximately half of the overall cohort, with the remainder forming the validation cohort. Results Stage 4 disease, large mediastinal mass, albumin (<3.5), and fever were independent predictors of EFS that were each assigned one point in the CHIPS. Four-year EFS was 93.1% for patients with CHIPS = 0, 88.5% for patients with CHIPS = 1, 77.6% for patients with CHIPS = 2, and 69.2% for patients with CHIPS = 3. Conclusions CHIPS was highly predictive of EFS, identifying a subset (with CHIPS 2 or 3) that comprises 27% of intermediate-risk patients who have a 4-year EFS of <80% and who may benefit from early therapeutic augmentation. Furthermore, CHIPS identified higher risk patients who were not identified by early PET or CT response. CHIPS is a robust and inexpensive approach to predicting risk in patients with intermediate-risk HL that may improve ability to tailor therapy to risk factors known at diagnosis. PMID:27786406

First CT findings and improvement in GOS and GOSE scores 6 and 12 months after severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Corral, Luisa; Herrero, José Ignacio; Monfort, José Luis; Ventura, José Luis; Javierre, Casimiro F; Juncadella, Montserrat; García-Huete, Lucía; Bartolomé, Carlos; Gabarrós, Andreu

2009-05-01

To analyse the association between individual initial computerized tomography (CT) scan characteristics and Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) improvement between 6 months and 1 year. Two hundred and twenty-four adult patients with severe traumatic brain injury and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 8 or less who were admitted to an intensive care unit were studied. GOS and GOSE scores were obtained 6 and 12 months after injury in 203 subjects. Patients were predominantly male (84%) and median age was 35 years. Traumatic Coma Data Bank (TCDB) CT classification was associated with GOS/GOSE improvement between 6 months and 1 year, with diffuse injury type I, type II and evacuated mass improving more than diffuse injury type III, type IV and non-evacuated mass; for GOS 43/155 (28%) vs 3/48 (6%) (chi(2) = 9.66, p < 0.01) and for GOSE 71/155 (46%) vs 7/48 (15%) (chi(2) = 15.1, p < 0.01). CT individual abnormalities were not associated with GOS/GOSE improvement, with the exception of subarachnoid haemorrhage, which showed a negative association with GOSE improvement (chi(2) = 4.08, p < 0.05). TCDB CT scan classification and subarachnoid haemorrhage were associated with GOS/GOSE improvement from 6-12 months, but individual CT abnormalities were not associated.

Hypoglycorrhachia in Adults with Community-Acquired Meningitis: Etiologies and Prognostic Significance

PubMed Central

Shrikanth, Vandana; Salazar, Lucrecia; Khoury, Nabil; Wootton, Susan; Hasbun, Rodrigo

2015-01-01

Study objectives Hypoglycorrhachia (CSF glucose < 45mg/dL) has been identified as a prognostic factor in patients with meningitis. We analyzed the differential diagnosis of hypoglycorrhachia and its clinical significance. Methods Retrospective study of 620 adult patients with community acquired meningitis [CSF WBC >5 cells/mm3, absence of a CSF shunt or recent neurosurgical procedure (< 1 month)] at 8 Memorial Hermann Hospitals in Houston, TX from January, 2005 to December, 2010. An adverse clinical outcome was defined as a Glasgow outcome scale of 4 or less. Results Out of 620 patients with meningitis, 116 (19%) had hypoglycorrachia. Etiologies of hypoglycorrhachia were idiopathic (40), bacterial (27), cryptococcal (26), viral (15), and tuberculous (4). Patients with hypoglycorrachia were more likely to be immunosuppressed, have a history of intravenous drug use, and present with a vesicular or petechial rash, nausea or vomiting, nuchal rigidity, sinusitis/otitis, abnormal mental status and focal neurological deficits compared to those patients without hypoglycorrachia (p<0.05). Additionally, patients in the hypoglycorrhachia group had significantly higher rates of positive CSF and blood cultures, urgent treatable conditions and abnormal cranial imaging (p<005). Furthermore, patients with hypoglycorrachia had more adverse clinical outcomes [26 out of 116 (22.4%) vs. 45 out of 504 (8.9%)] (p< 0.001). Conclusion Hypoglycorrhachia has significant clinical and prognostic value in the evaluation of adult patients with community-acquired meningitis. PMID:26299186

Mortality prediction in patients with acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Skarupskienė, Inga; Adukauskienė, Dalia; Kuzminskienė, Jurgita; Rimkutė, Laima; Balčiuvienė, Vilma; Žiginskienė, Edita; Kuzminskis, Vytautas; Adukauskaitė, Agnė; Pentiokinienė, Daiva; Bumblytė, Inga Arūnė

2017-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and potentially serious postoperative complication after cardiac surgery, and it remains a cause of major morbidity and mortality. The aim of our study was to assess the prognostic illness severity score and to estimate the significant risk factors for poor outcome of patients with AKI requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) after cardiac surgery. We retrospectively analyzed data of adult (>18 years) patients (n=111) who underwent open heart surgery and had developed AKI with need for RRT. Prognostic illness severity scores were calculated and perioperative risk factors of lethal outcome were assessed at the RRT initiation time. We defined three illness severity scores: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) as a general score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) as an organ failure score, and Liano score as a kidney-specific disease severity score. Logistic regression was also used for the multivariate analysis of mortality risk factors. Hospital mortality was 76.5%. More than 7% of patients remained dialysis-dependent after their discharge from the hospital. The prognostic abilities of the scores were assessed for their discriminatory power. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve of SOFA score was 0.719 (95% CI, 0.598-0.841), of Liano was 0.661 (95% CI, 0.535-0.787) and 0.668 (95% CI, 0.550-0.785) of APACHE II scores. From 16 variables analyzed for model selection, we reached a final logistic regression model, which demonstrated four variables significantly associated with patients' mortality. Glasgow coma score<14 points (OR=3.304; 95% CI, 1.130-9.662; P=0.003), mean arterial blood pressure (MAP)<63.5mmHg (OR=3.872; 95% CI, 1.011-13.616; P=0.035), serum creatinine>108.5μmol/L (OR=0.347; 95% CI, 0.123-0.998; P=0.046) and platelet count<115×10 9 /L (OR=3.731; 95% CI, 1.259-11.054; P=0.018) were independent risk factors for poor patient outcome. Our study demonstrated

Data analysis and review of radiology services at Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games.

PubMed

Bethapudi, Sarath; Ritchie, David; Bongale, Santosh; Gordon, Jonny; MacLean, John; Mendl, Liz

2015-10-01

Medical services at the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games (CWG) were provided though a purpose-built medical polyclinic, which had a fully equipped radiology department along with other services, set up within the main Games Village. Data analysis of radiology services offered at CWG has not been published before. Imaging services within the polyclinic, Athletes Village, Glasgow 2014 CWG. The aim of the paper is to analyse data on radiological investigations and assess the demand and distribution of workload on imaging services at CWG 2014. Data on radiology investigations at the CWG 2014 was retrieved from the Carestream picture archiving and communication system (PACS) and Pharmasys (CWG official centralised electronic database system) and analysed. Six hundred ninety-seven diagnostic and interventional procedures were performed. Of these 37.9% were magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, 22% were diagnostic ultrasound (US) examinations, 33.1% were radiographs, 4.3% were computed tomography (CT) scans and 2.7% were imaging-guided interventional procedures. 88% of imaging was performed on athletes and the remainder were performed on team officials and workforce. Demand on radiology services gradually picked up through the pre-competition period and peaked half way through the CWG. Radiology played a vital role in the successful provision of medical services at the Glasgow 2014 CWG. High demand on imaging services can be expected at major international sporting events and therefore pre-event planning is vital. Having back-up facilities in case of technical failure should be given due importance when planning radiology services at future CWG events.

The role of marshall and rotterdam score in predicting 30-day outcome of traumatic brain injury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siahaan, A. M. P.; Akbar, T. Y. M.; Nasution, M. D.

2018-03-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity, especially in the young population. To predict the outcome of TBI, Marshall, and Rotterdam–CT Scan based scoring was mostly used. As many studies showed conflicting results regarding of the usage of both scoring, this study aims to determine the correlation between Rotterdam and Marshall scoring system with outcome in 30 days and found correlation among them. In 120 subjects with TBI that admitted to Adam Malik General Hospital, we found a significant association of both scorings with the 30-day Glasgow Outcome Score. Therefore, we recommend the use of Marshall and Rotterdam CT Score in initial assessment as a good predictor for patients with TBI.

Variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients: What is the best prognostic score?

PubMed

Mohammad, Asmaa N; Morsy, Khairy H; Ali, Moustafa A

2016-09-01

To find the most accurate, suitable, and applicable scoring system for the prediction of outcome in cirrhotic patients with bleeding varices. A prospective study was conducted comprising 120 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding who were admitted to Tropical Medicine and Gastroenterology Department in Sohag University Hospital, over a 1-year period (1/2015 to 1/2016). The clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic parameters were studied. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification score, Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and AIMS65 score were calculated for all patients. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for all the measured parameters and scores. Of the 120 patients (92 male) admitted during the study period, eight patients (6.67%) died in the hospital. Advanced age, the presence of encephalopathy, rebleeding, and higher serum bilirubin were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. The largest area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) was obtained for the AIMS65 score and SOFA score, followed by the MELD score and APACHEII score, then CTP score, all of which achieved very good performance (AUROC>0.8). AIMS65 score showed the best sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values. Although the AIMS65 score was not significantly different from the MELD, SOFA, and APACHEII scores, it was the optimum among them in terms of the prediction of mortality. AIMS65 score is the best simple and applicable scoring system for independently predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding.

Immunoglobulin M monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance and indolent Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia recognize the same determinants of evolution into symptomatic lymphoid disorders: proposal for a common prognostic scoring system.

PubMed

Baldini, Luca; Goldaniga, Maria; Guffanti, Andrea; Broglia, Chiara; Cortelazzo, Sergio; Rossi, Andrea; Morra, Enrica; Colombi, Mariangela; Callea, Vincenzo; Pogliani, Enrico; Ilariucci, Fiorella; Luminari, Stefano; Morel, Pierre; Merlini, Giampaolo; Gobbi, Paolo

2005-07-20

To evaluate the clinicohematologic variables at diagnosis that are prognostically related to neoplastic progression in patients with immunoglobulin M (IgM) monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance (MGUS), and indolent Waldenström's macroglobulinemia (IWM), and propose a scoring system to identify subsets of patients at different risk. We evaluated 217 patients with IgM MGUS and 201 with IWM (male-female ratio, 131:86 and 117:84; mean age, 63.7 and 63.6 years, respectively) diagnosed on the basis of serum monoclonal component (MC) levels and bone marrow lymphoplasmacytic infiltration degree. The variables selected by univariate analyses were multivariately investigated; on the basis of their individual relative hazards, a scoring system was devised to identify subsets of patients at different risk of evolution. After a median follow-up of 56.1 and 60.2 months, 15 of 217 MGUS and 45 of 201 IWM patients, respectively, required chemotherapy for symptomatic WM (13 and 36), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (2 and 6) and amyloidosis (0 and 3). The median time to evolution (TTE) was not reached for MGUS and was 141.5 months for IWM. The variables adversely related to evolution were qualitatively the same in both groups: MC levels, Hb concentrations and sex. A scoring system based on these parameters identified three risk groups with highly significant differences in TTE in both groups (P < .0001). MGUS and IWM identify disease entities with different propensities for symptomatic neoplastic evolution. As both have the same prognostic determinants of progression, we propose a practical scoring system that, identifying different risks of malignant evolution, may allow an individualized clinical approach.

Newly identified poor prognostic factors for adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma treated with allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Tokunaga, Masahito; Uto, Hirofumi; Takeuchi, Shogo; Nakano, Nobuaki; Kubota, Ayumu; Tokunaga, Mayumi; Takatsuka, Yoshifusa; Seto, Masao; Ido, Akio; Utsunomiya, Atae

2017-01-01

To explore pre-transplantation prognostic factors for adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma (ATL), we retrospectively analyzed allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in 70 patients at our institute (63 acute type and seven lymphoma type patients). Forty-five patients died after HSCT and the three-year overall survival (OS) rate was 35.2%. By univariate analysis, the adverse prognostic factors for OS were performance status ≥2, hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI) score ≥3, European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) risk score ≥5, HSCT from an HLA-mismatched donor, serum soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) level ≥10,000 U/mL, lymphocyte count ≥4000/μL, and hemoglobin <9 g/dL at the time of HSCT. EBMT risk score and sIL-2R were identified as significant adverse prognostic factors using multivariate analysis. This analysis clearly demonstrates for the first time that HCT-CI and EBMT risk scores are reliable prognostic factors for ATL patients receiving allo-HSCT.

Sarcopenia in the prognosis of cirrhosis: Going beyond the MELD score

PubMed Central

Kim, Hee Yeon; Jang, Jeong Won

2015-01-01

Estimating the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis remains challenging, because the natural history of cirrhosis varies according to the cause, presence of portal hypertension, liver synthetic function, and the reversibility of underlying disease. Conventional prognostic scoring systems, including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score or model for end-stage liver diseases are widely used; however, revised models have been introduced to improve prognostic performance. Although sarcopenia is one of the most common complications related to survival of patients with cirrhosis, the newly proposed prognostic models lack a nutritional status evaluation of patients. This is reflected by the lack of an optimal index for sarcopenia in terms of objectivity, reproducibility, practicality, and prognostic performance, and of a consensus definition for sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis in whom ascites and edema may interfere with body composition analysis. Quantifying skeletal muscle mass using cross-sectional abdominal imaging is a promising tool for assessing sarcopenia. As radiological imaging provides direct visualization of body composition, it is useful to evaluate sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis whose body mass index, anthropometric measurements, or biochemical markers are inaccurate on a nutritional assessment. Sarcopenia defined by cross-sectional imaging-based muscular assessment is prevalent and predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Sarcopenia alone or in combination with conventional prognostic systems shows promise for a cirrhosis prognosis. Including an objective assessment of sarcopenia with conventional scores to optimize the outcome prediction for patients with cirrhosis needs further research. PMID:26167066

"Score the Core" Web-based pathologist training tool improves the accuracy of breast cancer IHC4 scoring.

PubMed

Engelberg, Jesse A; Retallack, Hanna; Balassanian, Ronald; Dowsett, Mitchell; Zabaglo, Lila; Ram, Arishneel A; Apple, Sophia K; Bishop, John W; Borowsky, Alexander D; Carpenter, Philip M; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Datnow, Brian; Elson, Sarah; Hasteh, Farnaz; Lin, Fritz; Moatamed, Neda A; Zhang, Yanhong; Cardiff, Robert D

2015-11-01

Hormone receptor status is an integral component of decision-making in breast cancer management. IHC4 score is an algorithm that combines hormone receptor, HER2, and Ki-67 status to provide a semiquantitative prognostic score for breast cancer. High accuracy and low interobserver variance are important to ensure the score is accurately calculated; however, few previous efforts have been made to measure or decrease interobserver variance. We developed a Web-based training tool, called "Score the Core" (STC) using tissue microarrays to train pathologists to visually score estrogen receptor (using the 300-point H score), progesterone receptor (percent positive), and Ki-67 (percent positive). STC used a reference score calculated from a reproducible manual counting method. Pathologists in the Athena Breast Health Network and pathology residents at associated institutions completed the exercise. By using STC, pathologists improved their estrogen receptor H score and progesterone receptor and Ki-67 proportion assessment and demonstrated a good correlation between pathologist and reference scores. In addition, we collected information about pathologist performance that allowed us to compare individual pathologists and measures of agreement. Pathologists' assessment of the proportion of positive cells was closer to the reference than their assessment of the relative intensity of positive cells. Careful training and assessment should be used to ensure the accuracy of breast biomarkers. This is particularly important as breast cancer diagnostics become increasingly quantitative and reproducible. Our training tool is a novel approach for pathologist training that can serve as an important component of ongoing quality assessment and can improve the accuracy of breast cancer prognostic biomarkers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Supportive Care: Time to Change Our Prognostic Tools and Their Use in CKD

PubMed Central

Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Kotanko, Peter; Germain, Michael J.; Moranne, Olivier; Davison, Sara N.

2016-01-01

In using a patient-centered approach, neither a clinician nor a prognostic score can predict with absolute certainty how well a patient will do or how long he will live; however, validated prognostic scores may improve accuracy of prognostic estimates, thereby enhancing the ability of the clinicians to appreciate the individual burden of disease and the prognosis of their patients and inform them accordingly. They may also facilitate nephrologist’s recommendation of dialysis services to those who may benefit and proposal of alternative care pathways that might better respect patients’ values and goals to those who are unlikely to benefit. The purpose of this article is to discuss the use as well as the limits and deficiencies of currently available prognostic tools. It will describe new predictors that could be integrated in future scores and the role of patients’ priorities in development of new scores. Delivering patient-centered care requires an understanding of patients’ priorities that are important and relevant to them. Because of limits of available scores, the contribution of new prognostic tools with specific markers of the trajectories for patients with CKD and patients’ health reports should be evaluated in relation to their transportability to different clinical and cultural contexts and their potential for integration into the decision-making processes. The benefit of their use then needs to be quantified in clinical practice by outcome studies including health–related quality of life, patient and caregiver satisfaction, or utility for improving clinical management pathways and tailoring individualized patient–centered strategies of care. Future research also needs to incorporate qualitative methods involving patients and their caregivers to better understand the barriers and facilitators to use of these tools in the clinical setting. Information given to patients should be supported by a more realistic approach to what dialysis is likely

A comparison of the diagnostic power of the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness scale and the Glasgow coma scale in the discharge outcome prediction of patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to the intensive care unit

PubMed Central

Gorji, Mohammad Ali Heidari; Hoseini, Seyed Hosein; Gholipur, Afshin; Mohammadpur, Reza Ali

2014-01-01

Background and Aim: This study aimed to determine whether the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score is an accurate predictorof discharge outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients and to compare its performanceto Glasgow coma scale (GCS). Materials and Methods: Thisis diagnostic study conducted prospectively on 53 TBI patients admitted to ICU of education hospitals of Medical Science University of Mazandaran during February 2013 to June 2013. Data collection was done with a checklist including biographic, clinical information and outcome. The FOUR score and GCS were determined by the researcher in the first 24 hours. Outcomes considered as in-hospital mortality and poor neurologic outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) 1-3) in discharge time from the hospital. Results: In terms of predictive power for in-hospital mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0/92 (95% CI. 0/81-0/97) for FOUR score and 0/96 (95% CI. 0/87-0/99) for GCS. In terms of predictive power of poor neurologic outcome, the area under the ROC curve was 0/95 (95% CI. 0/86-0/99) for FOUR score and 0/90 (95% CI.0/79-0/96) for GCS as evidenced by GOS 1-3. The cut-off of 6 showed sensitivity and specificity of total four score predicting poor outcome at 0/86 and 0/87 while the cut-off of 4 showed the value of in hospital mortality at 0/90 and 0/90. The total GCS score showed sensitivity and specificity 0/100 and 0/61 at cut-off 7 in predicting poor outcome while in predicting mortality at cut-off of 4 this range was 0/100 and 0/92. Conclusion: The FOUR score is an accurate predictor of discharge outcome in TBI patients. Thus, researchers recommend for therapeutic Schematizationto use in neurosurgical patients at admission day. PMID:24843331

The health and well-being of children and young people who are looked after: Findings from a face-to-face survey in Glasgow.

PubMed

Vincent, Sharon; Jopling, Michael

2018-03-01

Evidence suggests children and young people who are looked after (LACYP) may have poorer health outcomes than children and young people in the general population, particularly in relation to mental health. This paper discusses findings from a survey of the health and well-being of LACYP in Glasgow. A structured questionnaire used in the 2010 Glasgow Schools Survey (GSS) was adapted and administered in face-to-face interviews with 130 young people aged 11-18 in 2014-2015 to investigate various aspects of health and well-being including physical activity, diet and sleep, smoking, alcohol and drugs, health feelings and worries, behaviours, attitudes and expectations. LACYP were more likely to report that they had tried drugs, slightly more likely to have scores indicating a high level of difficulties on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and less likely to report that they ate fruit and vegetables, used active transport methods to get to school and expected to go on to further or higher education; however, reported rates of physical activity, smoking and drinking were similar. LACYP were less likely to report that they had engaged in antisocial behaviour, truancy or bullying or been exposed to environmental tobacco smoke, less likely to worry or have low self-esteem, and more likely to rate their health positively. There were some variations according to placement type. The findings of this study present a more positive picture of the health and well-being of LACYP in Glasgow than might have been expected but should be treated with caution due to small sample size. Further research is needed to identify differences in relation to placement type and to determine whether being looked after might be associated with improved health and well-being outcomes for some children and young people. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognostic Impact of 21-Gene Recurrence Score in Patients With Stage IV Breast Cancer: TBCRC 013.

PubMed

King, Tari A; Lyman, Jaclyn P; Gonen, Mithat; Voci, Amy; De Brot, Marina; Boafo, Camilla; Sing, Amy Pratt; Hwang, E Shelley; Alvarado, Michael D; Liu, Minetta C; Boughey, Judy C; McGuire, Kandace P; Van Poznak, Catherine H; Jacobs, Lisa K; Meszoely, Ingrid M; Krontiras, Helen; Babiera, Gildy V; Norton, Larry; Morrow, Monica; Hudis, Clifford A

2016-07-10

The objective of this study was to determine whether the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) provides clinically meaningful information in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer enrolled in the Translational Breast Cancer Research Consortium (TBCRC) 013. TBCRC 013 was a multicenter prospective registry that evaluated the role of surgery of the primary tumor in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer. From July 2009 to April 2012, 127 patients from 14 sites were enrolled; 109 (86%) patients had pretreatment primary tumor samples suitable for 21-gene RS analysis. Clinical variables, time to first progression (TTP), and 2-year overall survival (OS) were correlated with the 21-gene RS by using log-rank, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression. Median patient age was 52 years (21 to 79 years); the majority had hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative (72 [66%]) or hormone receptor-positive/HER2-positive (20 [18%]) breast cancer. At a median follow-up of 29 months, median TTP was 20 months (95% CI, 16 to 26 months), and median survival was 49 months (95% CI, 40 months to not reached). An RS was generated for 101 (93%) primary tumor samples: 22 (23%) low risk (< 18), 29 (28%) intermediate risk (18 to 30); and 50 (49%) high risk (≥ 31). For all patients, RS was associated with TTP (P = .01) and 2-year OS (P = .04). In multivariable Cox regression models among 69 patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/HER2-negative cancer, RS was independently prognostic for TTP (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.86; P = .02) and 2-year OS (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.95; P = .013). The 21-gene RS is independently prognostic for both TTP and 2-year OS in ER-positive/HER2-negative de novo stage IV breast cancer. Prospective validation is needed to determine the potential role for this assay in the clinical management of this patient subset. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Novel pathologic scoring tools predict end-stage kidney disease in light chain (AL) amyloidosis.

PubMed

Rubinstein, Samuel; Cornell, Robert F; Du, Liping; Concepcion, Beatrice; Goodman, Stacey; Harrell, Shelton; Horst, Sara; Lenihan, Daniel; Slosky, David; Fogo, Agnes; Langone, Anthony

2017-09-01

Light chain (AL) amyloidosis frequently involves the kidney, causing significant morbidity and mortality. A pathologic scoring system with prognostic utility has not been developed. We hypothesized that the extent of amyloid deposition and degree of scarring injury on kidney biopsy, could provide prognostic value, and aimed to develop pathologic scoring tools based on these features. This is a case-control study of 39 patients treated for AL amyloidosis with biopsy-proven kidney involvement at a large academic medical center. Our novel scoring tools, composite scarring injury score (CSIS) and amyloid score (AS) were applied to each kidney biopsy. The primary outcome was progression to dialysis-dependent end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) using a 12-month landmark analysis. At 12 months, nine patients had progressed to ESKD. Patients with an AS ≥7.5 had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of ESKD than those with AS <7.5 (p = .04, 95% CI 0.13-0.64). Using a 12-month landmark analysis, AS correlated with progression to ESKD. These data suggest that a kidney biopsy, in addition to providing diagnostic information, can be the basis for a pathologic scoring system with prognostic significance.

Addressing the challenges of obtaining functional outcomes in traumatic brain injury research: missing data patterns, timing of follow-up, and three prognostic models.

PubMed

Zelnick, Leila R; Morrison, Laurie J; Devlin, Sean M; Bulger, Eileen M; Brasel, Karen J; Sheehan, Kellie; Minei, Joseph P; Kerby, Jeffrey D; Tisherman, Samuel A; Rizoli, Sandro; Karmy-Jones, Riyad; van Heest, Rardi; Newgard, Craig D

2014-06-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is common and debilitating. Randomized trials of interventions for TBI ideally assess effectiveness by using long-term functional neurological outcomes, but such outcomes are difficult to obtain and costly. If there is little change between functional status at hospital discharge versus 6 months, then shorter-term outcomes may be adequate for use in future clinical trials. Using data from a previously published multi-center, randomized, placebo-controlled TBI clinical trial, we evaluated patterns of missing outcome data, changes in functional status between hospital discharge and 6 months, and three prognostic models to predict long-term functional outcome from covariates available at hospital discharge (functional measures, demographics, and injury characteristics). The Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium Hypertonic Saline trial enrolled 1282 TBI patients, obtaining the primary outcome of 6-month Glasgow Outcome Score Extended (GOSE) for 85% of patients, but missing the primary outcome for the remaining 15%. Patients with missing outcomes had less-severe injuries, higher neurological function at discharge (GOSE), and shorter hospital stays than patients whose GOSE was obtained. Of 1066 (83%) patients whose GOSE was obtained both at hospital discharge and at 6-months, 71% of patients had the same dichotomized functional status (severe disability/death vs. moderate/no disability) after 6 months as at discharge, 28% had an improved functional status, and 1% had worsened. Performance was excellent (C-statistic between 0.88 and 0.91) for all three prognostic models and calibration adequate for two models (p values, 0.22 and 0.85). Our results suggest that multiple imputation of the standard 6-month GOSE may be reasonable in TBI research when the primary outcome cannot be obtained through other means.

Prognostic indicators of poor short-term outcome of physiotherapy intervention in women with stress urinary incontinence.

PubMed

Hendriks, Erik J M; Kessels, Alfons G H; de Vet, Henrica C W; Bernards, Arnold T M; de Bie, Rob A

2010-03-01

To identify prognostic indicators independently associated with poor outcome of physiotherapy intervention in women with primary or recurrent stress urinary incontinence (stress UI). A prospective cohort study was performed in physiotherapy practices in primary care to identify prognostic indicators 12 weeks after initiation of physiotherapy intervention. Patients were referred by general practitioners or urogynecologists. Risk factors for stress UI were examined as potential prognostic indicators of poor outcome. The primary outcomes were defined as poor outcome on the binary Leakage Severity scale (LS scale) and the binary global perceived effectiveness (GPE) score. Two hundred sixty-seven women, with a mean age of 47.7 (SD = 8.3), with stress UI for at least 6 months were included. At 12 weeks, 43% and 59% of the women were considered recovered on the binary LS scale and the binary GPE score, respectively. Prognostic indicators associated with poor outcome included 11 indicators based on the binary LS scale and 8 based on the binary GPE score. The prognostic indicators shared by both models show that poor recovery was associated with women with severe stress UI, POP-Q stage > II, poor outcome of physiotherapy intervention for a previous UI episode, prolonged second stage of labor, BMI > 30, high psychological distress, and poor physical health. This study provides robust evidence of clinically meaningful prognostic indicators of poor short-term outcome. These findings need to be confirmed by replication studies. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Initial Assessment and Resuscitation in Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Simon, Tracey G; Travis, Anne C; Saltzman, John R

2015-07-01

Acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding remains an important cause of hospital admission with an associated mortality of 2-14%. Initial patient evaluation includes rapid hemodynamic assessment, large-bore intravenous catheter insertion and volume resuscitation. A hemoglobin transfusion threshold of 7 g/dL is recommended, and packed red blood cell transfusion may be necessary to restore intravascular volume and improve tissue perfusion. Patients should be risk stratified into low- and high-risk categories, using validated prognostic scoring systems such as the Glasgow-Blatchford, AIMS65 or Rockall scores. Effective early management of acute, nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is critical for improving patient outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new prognostic model for chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Ahn, Shin; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lee, Jae-Lyun; Lim, Kyung Soo; Yoon, Sung-Cheol

2016-02-01

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new prognostic model for febrile neutropenia (FN). This study comprised 1001 episodes of FN: 718 for the derivation set and 283 for the validation set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed with unfavorable outcome as the primary endpoint and bacteremia as the secondary endpoint. In the derivation set, risk factors for adverse outcomes comprised age ≥ 60 years (2 points), procalcitonin ≥ 0.5 ng/mL (5 points), ECOG performance score ≥ 2 (2 points), oral mucositis grade ≥ 3 (3 points), systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg (3 points), and respiratory rate ≥ 24 breaths/min (3 points). The model stratified patients into three severity classes, with adverse event rates of 6.0 % in class I (score ≤ 2), 27.3 % in class II (score 3-8), and 67.9 % in class III (score ≥ 9). Bacteremia was present in 1.1, 11.5, and 29.8 % of patients in class I, II, and III, respectively. The outcomes of the validation set were similar in each risk class. When the derivation and validation sets were integrated, unfavorable outcomes occurred in 5.9 % of the low-risk group classified by the new prognostic model and in 12.2 % classified by the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) risk index. With the new prognostic model, we can classify patients with FN into three classes of increasing adverse outcomes and bacteremia. Early discharge would be possible for class I patients, short-term observation could safely manage class II patients, and inpatient admission is warranted for class III patients.

Prognostic performance of Emergency Severity Index (ESI) combined with qSOFA score.

PubMed

Kwak, Hyeongkyu; Suh, Gil Joon; Kim, Taegyun; Kwon, Woon Yong; Kim, Kyung Su; Jung, Yoon Sun; Ko, Jung-In; Shin, So Mi

2018-01-31

We conducted this study to investigate whether ESI combined with qSOFA score (ESI+qSOFA) predicts hospital outcome better than ESI alone in the emergency department (ED). This was a retrospective study for patients aged over 15years who visited an ED of a tertiary referral hospital from January 1st, 2015 to December 31st, 2015. We calculated and compared predictive performances of ESI alone and ESI+qSOFA for prespecified outcomes. The primary outcome was hospital mortality, and the secondary outcome was composite outcome of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. We calculated in-hospital mortality rates by positive qSOFA in each subgroup divided according to ESI levels (1, 2, 3, 4+5). 43,748 patients were enrolled. The area under receiver-operating characteristics curves were higher in ESI+qSOFA than in ESI alone for both mortality and composite outcome (0.786 vs. 0.777, P<.001 for mortality; 0.778 vs. 0.774, P<.001 for composite outcome). In each subgroup divided by ESI levels, patients with positive qSOFA had significantly higher in-hospital mortality rate compared to those with negative qSOFA (20.4% vs. 14.7%, P=.117 in ESI level 1 subgroup; 11.3% vs. 2.7%, P=.001 in ESI level 2 subgroup; 2.3% vs. 0.4%, P<.001 in ESI level 3 subgroup; 0.0% vs. 0.0% in ESI level 4 or 5 subgroup). The prognostic performance of ESI+qSOFA for in-hospital mortality was significantly higher than that of ESI alone. Within each subgroup, patients with positive qSOFA had higher in-hospital mortality compared to those with negative qSOFA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New prognostic model for extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type.

PubMed

Cai, Qingqing; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Guanrong; Huang, Huiqiang; Huang, Hui; Lin, Tongyu; Jiang, Wenqi; Xia, Zhongjun; Young, Ken H

2014-09-01

Extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTL) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in affected patients. We designed a new prognostic model specifically for ENKTL to identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive therapy. We retrospectively reviewed 158 patients who were newly diagnosed with ENKTL. The estimated 5-year overall survival rate was 39.4 %. Independent prognostic factors included total protein (TP) <60 g/L, fasting blood glucose (FBG) >100 mg/dL, and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) score ≥2. We constructed a new prognostic model by combining these prognostic factors: group 1 (64 cases (41.0 %)), no adverse factors; group 2 (58 cases (37.2 %)), one adverse factor; and group 3 (34 cases (21.8 %)), two or three adverse factors. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of these groups were 66.7, 23.0, and 5.9 %, respectively (p < 0.001). Our new prognostic model had a better prognostic value than did the KPI model alone (p < 0.001). Our proposed prognostic model for ENKTL, including the newly identified prognostic indicators, TP and FBG, demonstrated a balanced distribution of patients into different risk groups with better prognostic discrimination compared with the KPI model alone.

Drug Issues Affecting Chinese, Indian and Pakistani People Living in Greater Glasgow

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, A. J.; Heim, D.; Bakshi, N.; Davies, J. B.; Flatley, K. J.; Hunter, S. C.

2004-01-01

This paper describes research on drug issues affecting Chinese, Indian and Pakistani people living in Greater Glasgow. There were two strands: (i) a questionnaire-based survey of young people and focus groups; (ii) interviews with young people and adults. The primary aims were to gather prevalence data and to investigate perceptions about current…

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-04-16

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores. Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems. Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs

A study to explore nurses' knowledge in using the Glasgow Coma Scale in an acute care hospital.

PubMed

Mattar, Ihsan; Liaw, Sok Ying; Chan, Moon Fai

2013-10-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is a neurological instrument, which measures the "depth and duration of impaired consciousness." The appeal of the GCS lies in its applicability in a wide variety of clinical situations as well as its ease of use by a range of healthcare staff. However, the GCS is not without its weaknesses and limitations. Its ease of use opens it up to misinterpretation and misapplication. Despite the propensity for incorrect assessment, the GCS remains in use in the clinical setting and enjoys an "unwarranted and privileged position." This creates an issue to patient care as the GCS is an important instrument in communicating an accurate assessment of the patient's condition between clinical staff. The aim of this study was to investigate nurses' knowledge in using the GCS and the demographic factors influencing knowledge of the GCS. This is a correlational observational study conducted in one acute care hospital in Singapore. The participants were registered nurses involving in bedside nursing care. A self-administered questionnaire was provided to the participants via ward managers. The quantitative responses were collated and analyzed using SPSS 16.0. Type of clinical discipline (i.e., neuroscience, general medicine, and neurointensive care unit; beta = 0.51, p < .001) and the length of experience in a neuroscience setting (beta = 0.22, p = .005) were significant in determining a nurses' knowledge of the GCS. Nurses in the neonatal intensive care unit scored the highest mean scores (12.7), whereas nurses from the general medicine wards scored the lowest mean scores (9.7). Nurses who worked in a neuroscience setting for 6 years or more scored higher mean scores (11.9) on the knowledge scale, whereas nurses who worked in a neuroscience setting for less than a year scored lower mean scores (10.0). Educational interventions and guidelines in performing GCS assessment are suggested to maintain and improve knowledge in performing the GCS.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores: Who, when and why?

PubMed Central

Monteiro, Sara; Gonçalves, Tiago Cúrdia; Magalhães, Joana; Cotter, José

2016-01-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the complications, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact. PMID:26909231

Catestatin, vasostatin, cortisol, temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, scores of the short form of the Glasgow composite measure pain scale and visual analog scale for stress and pain behavior in dogs before and after ovariohysterectomy.

PubMed

Srithunyarat, Thanikul; Höglund, Odd V; Hagman, Ragnvi; Olsson, Ulf; Stridsberg, Mats; Lagerstedt, Anne-Sofie; Pettersson, Ann

2016-08-02

The stress reaction induced by surgery and associated pain may be detrimental for patient recovery and should be minimized. The neuropeptide chromogranin A (CGA) has shown promise as a sensitive biomarker for stress in humans. Little is known about CGA and its derived peptides, catestatin (CST) and vasostatin (VS), in dogs undergoing surgery. The objectives of this study were to investigate and compare concentrations of CGA epitopes CST and VS, cortisol, body temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, scores of the short form of the Glasgow composite measure pain scale (CMPS-SF) and visual analog scales (VAS) for stress and pain behavior in dogs before and after ovariohysterectomy. Thirty healthy privately owned female dogs admitted for elective ovariohysterectomy were included. Physical examination, CMPS-SF, pain behavior VAS, and stress behavior VAS were recorded and saliva and blood samples were collected before surgery, 3 h after extubation, and once at recall 7-15 days after surgery. Dogs were premedicated with morphine and received carprofen as analgesia for 7 days during the postoperative period. At 3 h after extubation, CMPS-SF and pain behavior VAS scores had increased (p < 0.0001) and stress behavior VAS scores, temperature, respiratory rate (p < 0.0001), plasma CST concentrations (p = 0.002) had decreased significantly compared to before surgery. No significant differences were observed in the subjective and physiological parameters between before surgery and at recall, but plasma CST (p = 0.04) and serum cortisol (p = 0.009) were significantly lower at recall. Plasma VS, saliva CST, and heart rate did not differ significantly at any observed time. Study parameters for evaluating surgery-induced stress and pain changed in dogs subjected to ovariohysterectomy. To further evaluate CST and VS usefulness as pain biomarkers, studies on dogs in acute painful situations are warranted.

Use of the Animal Trauma Triage Score, RibScore, Modified RibScore and Other Clinical Factors for Prognostication in Canine Rib Fractures.

PubMed

McCarthy, Daniel; Bacek, Lenore; Kim, Kyoung; Miller, George; Gaillard, Philippe; Kuo, Kendon

2018-06-11

 To characterize the clinical features among dogs sustaining rib fractures and to determine if age, type and severity of injury, entry blood lactate, trauma score and rib fracture score were associated with outcome.  A retrospective study was performed to include dogs that were presented with rib fractures. Risk factors evaluation included breed, age, body weight, diagnosis, presence of a flail chest, bandage use, puncture wound presence, rib fracture number, location of the fracture along the thoracic wall, hospital stay length, body weight, other fractures, pleural effusion, pulmonary contusions, pneumothorax and occurrence of an anaesthetic event. A retrospective calculation of an animal trauma triage (ATT) score, RibScore and Modified RibScore was assigned.  Forty-one medical records were collected. Motor vehicular trauma represented 56% of the rib fracture aetiology, 41% of patients sustained dog bites and one case was of an unknown aetiology. Significant correlations with risk factors were found only with the ATT score. All patients that died had an ATT score ≥ 5. The ATT score correlated positively with mortality ( p  < 0.05) with an ATT score ≥ 7 was 88% sensitive and 81% specific for predicting mortality. A 1-point increase in ATT score corresponded to 2.1 times decreased likelihood of survival. Mean hospital stay was 3 days longer for dog bite cases.  There was no increased mortality rate in canine patients that presented with the suspected risk factors. The only risk factor that predicted mortality was the ATT score. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Prognostic value of continuous electroencephalography monitoring in children with severe brain damage.

PubMed

Lan, Yan-huai; Zhu, Xiao-mei; Zhou, Yuan-feng; Qiu, Peng-ling; Lu, Guo-ping; Sun, Dao-kai; Wang, Yi

2015-06-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether there is a relationship between continuous electroencephalography (EEG) monitoring patterns and prognosis for children with severe brain damage. Patients and The different patterns of EEG were analyzed for 103 children (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score < 8) who were monitored with continuous video-EEG (CVEEG) within 72 hours after the onset of coma. The clinical outcomes were scored and evaluated at hospital discharge by the modified Pediatric Cerebral and Overall Performance Category Scale (PCOPCS). EEG parameters of the different prognosis groups were compared and risk factors for prognosis were identified. Of the 103 children, 36 were in the good prognosis group (PCOPCS scores 1 and 2) and 67 were in the poor prognosis group (PCOPCS scores 3-6). The poor prognosis group had the lower proportion of events in reactive EEG patterns and sleep architecture, and a higher proportion of low-voltage events. Multivariate analyses showed that the lower GCS score and no sleep architecture were significantly associated with poor prognosis. Comatose children with higher GCS score and sleep architecture have better clinical outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Prognostic significance of pulmonary lymphangioleiomyomatosis histologic score.

PubMed

Matsui, K; Beasley, M B; Nelson, W K; Barnes, P M; Bechtle, J; Falk, R; Ferrans, V J; Moss, J; Travis, W D

2001-04-01

Correlations were made between clinical and follow-up data and histopathologic findings in 105 women (mean age +/- standard deviation, 38.3 +/- 9.0 years) with pulmonary lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM). The actuarial survival (to pulmonary transplantation or death) of the patients from the time of lung biopsy was 85.1% and 71.0% after 5 and 10 years respectively. The histologic severity of LAM, graded as a LAM histologic score (LHS), was determined on the basis of semiquantitative estimation of the percentage of tissue involvement by the two major features of LAM: the cystic lesions and the infiltration by abnormal smooth muscle cells (LAM cells) in each case: LHS-1, <25%; LHS-2, 25% to 50%; and LHS-3, >50%. Analysis using the Kaplan-Meier method revealed significant differences in survival for patients with LHS-1, -2, and -3 (p = 0.01). The 5-and 10-year survivals were 100% and 100% for LHS-1, 81.2% and 74.4% for LHS-2, and 62.8% and 52.4% for LHS-3. Increased degrees of accumulation of hemosiderin in macrophages also were associated with higher LHS scores (p = 0.029) and a worse prognosis (p = 0.0012). Thus, the current study suggests that the LHS may provide a basis for determining the prognosis of LAM.

Determinants of Glasgow outcome scale in patients with severe traumatic brain injury for better quality of life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dharmajaya, R.; Sari, D. K.; Ganie, R. A.

2018-03-01

Primary and secondary brain injury may occur with severe traumatic brain injury. Secondary traumatic brain injury results in a more severe effect compared to primary traumatic brain injury. Therefore, prevention of secondary traumatic brain injury is necessary to obtain maximum therapeutic results and accurate determination of prognosis and better quality of life. This study aimed to determine accurate and noninvasive prognostic factors in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. It was a cohort study on 16 subjects. Intracranial pressure was monitored within the first 24 hours after traumatic brain injury. Examination of Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) and S100B protein were conducted four times. The severity of outcome was evaluated using Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) three months after traumatic brain injury. Intracranial pressure measurement performed 24 hours after traumatic brain injury, low S100B protein (<2μg/L) 120 hours after injury and increased BDNF (>6.16pg/ml) 48 hours after injury indicate good prognosis and were shown to be significant predictors (p<0.05) for determining the quality of GOS. The conclusion is patient with a moderate increase in intracranial pressure Intracranial pressure S100B protein, being inexpensive and non-invasive, can substitute BDNF and intracranial pressure measurements as a tool for determining prognosis 120 hours following traumatic brain injury.

[Prognosis in pediatric traumatic brain injury. A dynamic cohort study].

PubMed

Vázquez-Solís, María G; Villa-Manzano, Alberto I; Sánchez-Mosco, Dalia I; Vargas-Lares, José de Jesús; Plascencia-Fernández, Irma

2013-01-01

traumatic brain injury is a main cause of hospital admission and death in children. Our objective was to identify prognostic factors of pediatric traumatic brain injury. this was a dynamic cohort study of traumatic brain injury with 6 months follow-up. The exposition was: mild or moderate/severe traumatic brain injury, searching for prognosis (morbidity-mortality and decreased Glasgow scale). Relative risk and logistic regression was estimated for prognostic factors. we evaluated 440 patients with mild traumatic brain injury and 98 with moderate/severe traumatic brain injury. Morbidity for mild traumatic brain injury was 1 %; for moderate/severe traumatic brain injury, 5 %. There were no deaths. Prognostic factors for moderate/severe traumatic brain injury were associated injuries (RR = 133), fractures (RR = 60), street accidents (RR = 17), night time accidents (RR = 2.3) and weekend accidents (RR = 2). Decreased Glasgow scale was found in 9 %, having as prognostic factors: visible injuries (RR = 3), grown-up supervision (RR = 2.5) and time of progress (RR = 1.6). there should be a prognosis established based on kinetic energy of the injury and not only with Glasgow Scale.

[Spanish versions of the Simplified Motor Score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in out-of-hospital treatment of head injury in adults: a preliminary study of each scale's ability to predict adverse events].

PubMed

Roca, Guillem; Mayol, Sergi; García, Esteban; Casajuana, Edgar; Quintana, Salvador

2015-06-01

To determine the ability of the modified (Spanish) version of the Simplified Motor Score (mSMS) to predict adverse events during hospitalization and to compare its predictive ability to that of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in adults with head injuries treated outside the hospital. Observational study of retrospective cohorts including all patients over the age of 14 years attended for head injuries occurring within 24 hours of treatment by an advanced life-support unit staffed by nurses between May 1, 2013, and May 1, 2014. The mSMS was a translation of the English original, created through a process of discussions of direct and back translations to arrive at consensus. Out-of-hospital patient records were searched to find GCS and mSMS scores. To predict the ability of each scale to predict brain injuries, neurosurgery, intubation, and/or inhospital death, we calculated the area under the receiving operator characteristic curves (AUCs). Of the total of 115 head-injury patients attended, 64 met the inclusion criteria. The mean (SD) age was 47 (24) years. Twelve (18.8%) patients developed some form of adverse event during hospitalization; 91.6% had brain damage, 58.3% required intubation, 8.3% required surgery, and 41.6% died. The AUC for the GCS was 0.907 (95% CI, 0.81-1.00; P<.001); the AUC for the mSMS was 0.796 (95% CI, 0.64-0.95; P=.001). Although the ability of the mSMS to predict in-hospital adverse outcomes is good, it is inferior to the GCS in adults with head injuries attended outside the hospital.

Community-Acquired Meningitis in Older Adults: Clinical Features, Etiology, and Prognostic Factors

PubMed Central

Wang, Amy Y.; Machicado, Jorge D.; Khoury, Nabil T.; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hasbun, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

Background Bacterial meningitis in older adults is a well-studied and serious disease, but few studies have investigated the epidemiology and outcomes of community-acquired meningitis in older adults. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of 619 adults in Houston, Texas, with community-acquired meningitis hospitalized between January 1, 2005, and January 1, 2010. Patients were categorized as older if age ≥65 (N=54) and younger if age 18–64 (N=565). An adverse clinical outcome was defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 4 or less. Results Older patients consisted of 8.7% (54/619) of the total cohort and had higher rates of comorbidities, abnormal neurological and laboratory findings, abnormalities on computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging of the head and adverse clinical outcomes (ACO) (p<0.05). The majority of patients (65.8%) had meningitis of unknown etiology. Bacterial meningitis was an infrequent cause (7.4%). Of the known causes, bacterial meningitis and West Nile virus were more common in older patients. In contrast, younger patients more frequently had cryptococcal and viral meningitis. On logistic regression, female gender was predictive of a poor outcome in the older patients, whereas abnormal neurologic exam, fever, and CSF glucose <45mg/dLwere significant poor prognostic factors in younger patients (p<0.05). Conclusion Most cases of community-acquired meningitis are of unknown origin. Older patients are more likely to have bacterial meningitis and West Nile virus infection when a cause can be identified. They also have more neurologic abnormalities, laboratory and imaging abnormalities, as well as adverse clinical outcomes. PMID:25370434

Prior Surgical Score: An Analysis of the Prognostic Significance of an Initial Nondefinitive Surgical Intervention in Patients With Peritoneal Carcinomatosis of a Colorectal Origin Undergoing Cytoreductive Surgery and Perioperative Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy.

PubMed

Paul, Bikram K; Ihemelandu, Chukwuemeka; Sugarbaker, Paul H

2018-03-01

The prior surgical score estimates the extent of previous surgical intervention by quantitating surgical dissection within 9 abdominopelvic regions. Our aim was to analyze the prognostic significance of the prior surgical score in our cohort of patients undergoing cytoreductive surgery and perioperative intraperitoneal chemotherapy for peritoneal carcinomatosis of a colorectal origin. This was a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database for all patients treated for peritoneal carcinomatosis of a colorectal origin. The prospectively maintained surgical oncology tumor database was analyzed for the study period 1989-2014. A total of 407 patients diagnosed with peritoneal carcinomatosis of a colorectal origin and treated with cytoreductive surgery and perioperative intraperitoneal chemotherapy were included in this analysis. The prognostic significance and clinicopathologic factors associated with an initial nondefinitive surgical intervention in patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis of a colorectal origin undergoing cytoreductive surgery and perioperative intraperitoneal chemotherapy was evaluated. There were 210 men (51.6%) and 197 women (48.4%) in the study. Mean age at presentation was 53.7 years (range, 19.0-87.0 y). Data on prior surgical score for 69 patients were missing, leaving us with a study cohort of 338 patients. Grouped by prior surgical score, 46 (13.6%) had a prior surgical score of 0 versus 25 (7.4%), 122 (36.1%), and 145 (42.9%) who had a prior surgical score of 1, 2, or 3. Overall survival was 53.0%. Three- and 5-year survival rates were 75% and 75% for group prior surgical score 0 versus 26% and 13%, 39% and 37%, and 21% and 16% for group prior surgical scores 1, 2, and 3. Median survival time for the various prior surgical score groups were 180.0, 30.4, 30.5, and 21.3 months for prior surgical scores 0, 1, 2, and 3 (p = 0.000). A total of 87.2% of the prior surgical score 0 group had a completeness of cytoreduction score of 0

Long-term prognostic impact of CT-Leaman score in patients with non-obstructive CAD: Results from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) study.

PubMed

Andreini, Daniele; Pontone, Gianluca; Mushtaq, Saima; Gransar, Heidi; Conte, Edoardo; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Pepi, Mauro; Opolski, Maksymilian P; Ó Hartaigh, Bríain; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo; Delago, Augustin; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Kim, Yong-Jin; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Leipsic, Jonathon; Lin, Fay Y; Maffei, Erica; Raff, Gilbert; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Dunning, Allison; Marques, Hugo; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Hindoyan, Niree; Gomez, Millie; Min, James K

2017-03-15

Non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) identified by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) demonstrated prognostic value. CT-adapted Leaman score (CT-LeSc) showed to improve the prognostic stratification. Aim of the study was to evaluate the capability of CT-LeSc to assess long-term prognosis of patients with non-obstructive (CAD). From 17 centers, we enrolled 2402 patients without prior CAD history who underwent CCTA that showed non-obstructive CAD and provided complete information on plaque composition. Patients were divided into a group without CAD and a group with non-obstructive CAD (<50% stenosis). Segment-involvement score (SIS) and CT-LeSc were calculated. Outcomes were non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and the combined end-point of MI and all-cause mortality. Patient mean age was 56±12years. At follow-up (mean 59.8±13.9months), 183 events occurred (53 MI, 99 all-cause deaths and 31 late revascularizations). CT-LeSc was the only multivariate predictor of MI (HRs 2.84 and 2.98 in two models with Framingham and risk factors, respectively) and of MI plus all-cause mortality (HR 2.48 and 1.94 in two models with Framingham and risk factors, respectively). This was confirmed by a net reclassification analysis confirming that the CT-LeSc was able to correctly reclassify a significant proportion of patients (cNRI 0.28 and 0.23 for MI and MI plus all-cause mortality, respectively) vs. baseline model, whereas SIS did not. CT-LeSc is an independent predictor of major acute cardiac events, improving prognostic stratification of patients with non-obstructive CAD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic and Predictive Value of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score Assay in a Randomized Trial of Chemotherapy for Postmenopausal, Node-Positive, Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Albain, Kathy S.; Barlow, William E.; Shak, Steven; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N.; Livingston, Robert B.; Yeh, I-Tien; Ravdin, Peter; Bugarini, Roberto; Baehner, Frederick L.; Davidson, Nancy E.; Sledge, George W.; Winer, Eric P.; Hudis, Clifford; Ingle, James N.; Perez, Edith A.; Pritchard, Kathleen I.; Shepherd, Lois; Gralow, Julie R.; Yoshizawa, Carl; Allred, D. Craig; Osborne, C. Kent; Hayes, Daniel F.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY Background The 21-gene Recurrence Score assay (RS) is prognostic for women with node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer (BC) treated with tamoxifen. A low RS predicts little benefit of chemotherapy. For node-positive BC, we investigated whether RS was prognostic in women treated with tamoxifen alone and whether it identified those who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite higher recurrence risks. Methods The phase III trial S8814 for postmenopausal women with node-positive, ER-positive BC showed that CAF chemotherapy prior to tamoxifen (CAF-T) added survival benefit to tamoxifen alone. Optional tumor banking yielded specimens for RS determination by RT-PCR. We evaluated the effect of RS on disease-free survival (DFS) by treatment group (tamoxifen versus CAF-T) using Cox regression adjusting for number of positive nodes. Findings There were 367 specimens (40% of parent trial) with sufficient RNA (tamoxifen, 148; CAF-T, 219). The RS was prognostic in the tamoxifen arm (p=0.006). There was no CAF benefit in the low RS group (logrank p=0.97; HR=1.02, 95% CI (0.54,1.93)), but major DFS improvement for the high RS subset (logrank p=.03; HR=0.59, 95% CI (0.35, 1.01)), adjusting for number of positive nodes. The RS-by-treatment interaction was significant in the first 5 years (p=0.029), with no additional prediction beyond 5 years (p=0.58), though the cumulative benefit remained at 10 years. Results were similar for overall survival and BC-specific survival. Interpretation In this retrospective analysis, the RS is prognostic for tamoxifen-treated patients with positive nodes and predicts significant CAF benefit in tumors with a high RS. A low RS identifies women who may not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy despite positive nodes. PMID:20005174

[Value of the palliative prognostic index, controlling nutritional status, and prognostic nutritional index for objective evaluation during transition from chemotherapy to palliative care in cases of advanced or recurrent gastrointestinal cancer].

PubMed

Fukushima, Tsuyoshi; Annen, Kazuya; Kawamukai, Yuji; Onuma, Noritomo; Kawashima, Mayu

2014-07-01

We investigated whether objective evaluation by using the palliative prognostic index(PPI), controlling nutritional status(COUNT), and prognostic nutritional index(PNI)can provide prognostic information during the transition from chemotherapy to palliative care in patients with advanced or recurrent gastrointestinal cancer. The subjects were 28 patients with gastrointestinal cancer who died of their disease between January 2009 and June 2012. We compared the PPI, COUNT, and PNI scores between patients who died within 90 days of completing chemotherapy(Group A, n=14)and patients who survived for 90 or more days(Group B, n=14). The PPI score for Group A(4.0)was significantly higher than that for Group B(0.8)(p<0.001). The COUNT score was also significantly higher for Group A(6.3)than for Group B (3.9)(p=0.033). A significant difference in survival was evident when the cutoff value for PNI was set at 40 in the critical region(68/118, p=0.04). Our study suggests that the PPI, COUNT, and PNI may be useful for objective evaluation during the transition from chemotherapy to palliative care.

Prognostic factors in patients with spinal metastasis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Luksanapruksa, Panya; Buchowski, Jacob M; Hotchkiss, William; Tongsai, Sasima; Wilartratsami, Sirichai; Chotivichit, Areesak

2017-05-01

neurologic deficit before surgery, non-ambulatory status before radiotherapy (RT), non-ambulatory status before surgery, presence of bone metastases, presence of multiple bone metastases (>2 sites), presence of multiple spinal metastases (>3 sites), development of motor deficit in <7 days before initiating RT, development of motor deficit in <14 days before initiating RT, time interval from cancer diagnosis to RT <15 months, Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) 10-40, KPS 50-70, KPS<70, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) grade 3-4, male gender, presence of visceral metastases, moderate growth tumor on Tomita score (TS) classification, and rapid growth tumor on TS classification. Seventeen independent poor prognostic factors were identified in this study. These can be categorized into cancer-specific and nonspecific prognostic factors. A tumor-based prognostic scoring system that combines all specific and general factors may enhance the accuracy of survival prediction in patients with metastatic spine disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of EORTC Prognostic Factors for Adults With Low-Grade Glioma: A Report Using Intergroup 86-72-51

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, Thomas B.; Brown, Paul D., E-mail: Brown.paul@mayo.edu; Felten, Sara J.

2011-09-01

Purpose: A prognostic index for survival was constructed and validated from patient data from two European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) radiation trials for low-grade glioma (LGG). We sought to independently validate this prognostic index with a separate prospectively collected data set (Intergroup 86-72-51). Methods and Materials: Two hundred three patients were treated in a North Central Cancer Treatment Group-led trial that randomized patients with supratentorial LGG to 50.4 or 64.8 Gy. Risk factors from the EORTC prognostic index were analyzed for prognostic value: histology, tumor size, neurologic deficit, age, and tumor crossing the midline. The high-riskmore » group was defined as patients with more than two risk factors. In addition, the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) score, extent of surgical resection, and 1p19q status were also analyzed for prognostic value. Results: On univariate analysis, the following were statistically significant (p < 0.05) detrimental factors for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS): astrocytoma histology, tumor size, and less than total resection. A Mini Mental Status Examination score of more than 26 was a favorable prognostic factor. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size and MMSE score were significant predictors of OS whereas tumor size, astrocytoma histology, and MMSE score were significant predictors of PFS. Analyzing by the EORTC risk groups, we found that the low-risk group had significantly better median OS (10.8 years vs. 3.9 years, p < 0.0001) and PFS (6.2 years vs. 1.9 years, p < 0.0001) than the high-risk group. The 1p19q status was available in 66 patients. Co-deletion of 1p19q was a favorable prognostic factor for OS vs. one or no deletion (median OS, 12.6 years vs. 7.2 years; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Although the low-risk group as defined by EORTC criteria had a superior PFS and OS to the high-risk group, this is primarily because of the influence

Daily FOUR score assessment provides accurate prognosis of long-term outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Weiss, N; Venot, M; Verdonk, F; Chardon, A; Le Guennec, L; Llerena, M C; Raimbourg, Q; Taldir, G; Luque, Y; Fagon, J-Y; Guerot, E; Diehl, J-L

2015-05-01

The accurate prediction of outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is of major importance. The recently described Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) is well adapted to mechanically ventilated patients and does not depend on verbal response. To evaluate the ability of FOUR assessed by intensivists to accurately predict outcome in OHCA. We prospectively identified patients admitted for OHCA with a Glasgow Coma Scale below 8. Neurological assessment was performed daily. Outcome was evaluated at 6 months using Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (GP-CPC). Eighty-five patients were included. At 6 months, 19 patients (22%) had a favorable outcome, GP-CPC 1-2, and 66 (78%) had an unfavorable outcome, GP-CPC 3-5. Compared to both brainstem responses at day 3 and evolution of Glasgow Coma Scale, evolution of FOUR score over the three first days was able to predict unfavorable outcome more precisely. Thus, absence of improvement or worsening from day 1 to day 3 of FOUR had 0.88 (0.79-0.97) specificity, 0.71 (0.66-0.76) sensitivity, 0.94 (0.84-1.00) PPV and 0.54 (0.49-0.59) NPV to predict unfavorable outcome. Similarly, the brainstem response of FOUR score at 0 evaluated at day 3 had 0.94 (0.89-0.99) specificity, 0.60 (0.50-0.70) sensitivity, 0.96 (0.92-1.00) PPV and 0.47 (0.37-0.57) NPV to predict unfavorable outcome. The absence of improvement or worsening from day 1 to day 3 of FOUR evaluated by intensivists provides an accurate prognosis of poor neurological outcome in OHCA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Impact of 21-Gene Recurrence Score in Patients With Stage IV Breast Cancer: TBCRC 013

PubMed Central

Lyman, Jaclyn P.; Gonen, Mithat; Voci, Amy; De Brot, Marina; Boafo, Camilla; Sing, Amy Pratt; Hwang, E. Shelley; Alvarado, Michael D.; Liu, Minetta C.; Boughey, Judy C.; McGuire, Kandace P.; Van Poznak, Catherine H.; Jacobs, Lisa K.; Meszoely, Ingrid M.; Krontiras, Helen; Babiera, Gildy V.; Norton, Larry; Morrow, Monica; Hudis, Clifford A.

2016-01-01

Purpose The objective of this study was to determine whether the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) provides clinically meaningful information in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer enrolled in the Translational Breast Cancer Research Consortium (TBCRC) 013. Patients and Methods TBCRC 013 was a multicenter prospective registry that evaluated the role of surgery of the primary tumor in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer. From July 2009 to April 2012, 127 patients from 14 sites were enrolled; 109 (86%) patients had pretreatment primary tumor samples suitable for 21-gene RS analysis. Clinical variables, time to first progression (TTP), and 2-year overall survival (OS) were correlated with the 21-gene RS by using log-rank, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression. Results Median patient age was 52 years (21 to 79 years); the majority had hormone receptor–positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)–negative (72 [66%]) or hormone receptor–positive/HER2-positive (20 [18%]) breast cancer. At a median follow-up of 29 months, median TTP was 20 months (95% CI, 16 to 26 months), and median survival was 49 months (95% CI, 40 months to not reached). An RS was generated for 101 (93%) primary tumor samples: 22 (23%) low risk (< 18), 29 (28%) intermediate risk (18 to 30); and 50 (49%) high risk (≥ 31). For all patients, RS was associated with TTP (P = .01) and 2-year OS (P = .04). In multivariable Cox regression models among 69 patients with estrogen receptor (ER)–positive/HER2-negative cancer, RS was independently prognostic for TTP (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.86; P = .02) and 2-year OS (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.95; P = .013). Conclusion The 21-gene RS is independently prognostic for both TTP and 2-year OS in ER–positive/HER2-negative de novo stage IV breast cancer. Prospective validation is needed to determine the potential role for this assay in the clinical management of this patient subset. PMID:27001590

Addressing the Challenges of Obtaining Functional Outcomes in Traumatic Brain Injury Research: Missing Data Patterns, Timing of Follow-Up, and Three Prognostic Models

PubMed Central

Morrison, Laurie J.; Devlin, Sean M.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Brasel, Karen J.; Sheehan, Kellie; Minei, Joseph P.; Kerby, Jeffrey D.; Tisherman, Samuel A.; Rizoli, Sandro; Karmy-Jones, Riyad; van Heest, Rardi; Newgard, Craig D.

2014-01-01

Abstract Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is common and debilitating. Randomized trials of interventions for TBI ideally assess effectiveness by using long-term functional neurological outcomes, but such outcomes are difficult to obtain and costly. If there is little change between functional status at hospital discharge versus 6 months, then shorter-term outcomes may be adequate for use in future clinical trials. Using data from a previously published multi-center, randomized, placebo-controlled TBI clinical trial, we evaluated patterns of missing outcome data, changes in functional status between hospital discharge and 6 months, and three prognostic models to predict long-term functional outcome from covariates available at hospital discharge (functional measures, demographics, and injury characteristics). The Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium Hypertonic Saline trial enrolled 1282 TBI patients, obtaining the primary outcome of 6-month Glasgow Outcome Score Extended (GOSE) for 85% of patients, but missing the primary outcome for the remaining 15%. Patients with missing outcomes had less-severe injuries, higher neurological function at discharge (GOSE), and shorter hospital stays than patients whose GOSE was obtained. Of 1066 (83%) patients whose GOSE was obtained both at hospital discharge and at 6-months, 71% of patients had the same dichotomized functional status (severe disability/death vs. moderate/no disability) after 6 months as at discharge, 28% had an improved functional status, and 1% had worsened. Performance was excellent (C-statistic between 0.88 and 0.91) for all three prognostic models and calibration adequate for two models (p values, 0.22 and 0.85). Our results suggest that multiple imputation of the standard 6-month GOSE may be reasonable in TBI research when the primary outcome cannot be obtained through other means. PMID:24552494

[Determination of prognostic value of the OESIL risk score at 6 months in a Colombian cohort with syncope evaluated in the emergency department; first Latin American experience].

PubMed

Díaz-Tribaldos, Diana Carolina; Mora, Guillermo; Olaya, Alejandro; Marín, Jorge; Sierra Matamoros, Fabio

2017-07-14

To establish the prognostic value, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the OESIL syncope risk score to predict the presentation of severe outcomes (death, invasive interventions, and readmission) after 6 months of observation in adults who consulted the emergency department due to syncope. Observational, prospective, and multicentre study with enrolment of subjects older than 18 years, who consulted in the emergency department due to syncope. A record was mad of the demographic and clinical information of all patients. The OESIL risk score was calculated, and severe patient outcomes were followed up during a 6 month period using telephone contact. A total of 161 patients met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 6 months. A score above or equal to 2 in the risk score, classified as high risk, was present in 72% of the patients. The characteristics of the risk score to predict the combined outcome of mortality, invasive interventions, and readmission for a score above or equal to 2 were 75.7, 30.5, 43.1, and 64.4% for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, respectively. A score above or equal to 2 in the OESIL risk score applied in Colombian population was of limited use to predict the studied severe outcomes. This score will be unable to discriminate between patients that benefit of early admission and further clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Mapping area variability in social and behavioural difficulties among Glasgow pre-schoolers: linkage of a survey of pre-school staff with routine monitoring data

PubMed Central

Barry, S.J.E.; Marryat, L.; Thompson, L.; Ellaway, A.; White, J.; McClung, M.; Wilson, P.

2016-01-01

Background Social, emotional and behavioural development in early to middle childhood impact upon many outcomes in future life and are influenced by home, neighbourhood and school environments. We used linked data to investigate differences between areas in Glasgow City in level of difficulties in pre-school age children, after consideration of demographics, including area level deprivation. Methods Pre-school education staff completed Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaires (SDQ) on all children progressing to school from a local authority or partnership (local authority funded private) pre-school in Glasgow City between 2010 and 2012. These data were linked to individual (age, gender) and area level (deprivation) demographics from the City Council Education Services Department. Statistical models were fitted to the SDQ scores, adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation, year of school entry, pre-school establishment attended and electoral ward of residence. Correlation between neighbouring wards was incorporated to allow for clustering of scores. Results Boys and those living in more deprived areas had higher levels of difficulties. Children aged 5-5.5 years had fewest difficulties, while the oldest and youngest children had similar levels of difficulties. There were no significant secular trends by year of school entry. There remained differences between areas after adjusting for these variables, with children living in some areas having fewer difficulties than would be expected based on their socio-demographic characteristics. Conclusions There remained differences in children’s levels of difficulties between areas after adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation and year of school entry. Children in some very deprived areas had fewer difficulties than might be expected, while those in relatively affluent areas had more difficulties than expected based on their deprivation level. There may be other, unmeasured, individual and area level reasons for

Mapping area variability in social and behavioural difficulties among Glasgow pre-schoolers: linkage of a survey of pre-school staff with routine monitoring data.

PubMed

Barry, S J E; Marryat, L; Thompson, L; Ellaway, A; White, J; McClung, M; Wilson, P

2015-11-01

Social, emotional and behavioural development in early to middle childhood impact upon many outcomes in future life and are influenced by home, neighbourhood and school environments. We used linked data to investigate differences between areas in Glasgow City in level of difficulties in pre-school age children, after consideration of demographics, including area-level deprivation. Pre-school education staff completed Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaires (SDQ) on all children progressing to school from a local authority or partnership (local authority-funded private) pre-school in Glasgow City between 2010 and 2012. These data were linked to individual (age, gender) and area-level (deprivation) demographics from the City Council Education Services Department. Statistical models were fitted to the SDQ scores, adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation, year of school entry, pre-school establishment attended and electoral ward of residence. Correlation between neighbouring wards was incorporated to allow for clustering of scores. Boys and those living in more deprived areas had higher levels of difficulties. Children aged 5.0-5.5 years had fewest difficulties, while the oldest and youngest children had similar levels of difficulties. There were no significant secular trends by year of school entry. There remained differences among areas after adjusting for these variables, with children living in some areas having fewer difficulties than would be expected based on their socio-demographic characteristics. There remained differences in children's levels of difficulties between areas after adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation and year of school entry. Children in some very deprived areas had fewer difficulties than might be expected, while those in relatively affluent areas had more difficulties than expected based on their deprivation level. There may be other, unmeasured, individual- and area-level reasons for children's level of difficulties, and these

Prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy: validation of Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score and impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Hu, Meng-Bo; Yang, Tian; Hu, Ji-Meng; Zhu, Wen-Hui; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Ding, Qiang

2018-06-01

Our aim was to determine the prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT), validate the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score, and investigate the impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM). The study enrolled Chinese patients diagnosed with prostatic adenocarcinoma and treated with bilateral orchiectomy as PADT at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China), from January 2003 to December 2015. The overall survival (OS) and prognostic value of J-CAPRA score, pre-existing obesity, DM, and various clinicopathological variables were analyzed. Of the 435 patients enrolled, 174 (40.0%) deaths occurred during follow-up; 3- and 5-year OS were 74.0 and 58.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified that higher Gleason score and metastasis were both correlated with worse OS and that higher J-CAPRA score was correlated with worse OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.110, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.035-1.190, P = 0.003). Different risk categories based on J-CAPRA score showed good stratification in OS (log-rank P = 0.015). In subgroup analysis, pre-existing obesity as a protective factor in younger patients (age ≤ 65, HR 0.271, 95% CI 0.075-0.980, P = 0.046) and pre-existing DM as a risk factor in older patients (> 75, HR 1.854, 95% CI 1.026-3.351, P = 0.041) for OS were recognized, and the prediction accuracy of J-CAPRA was elevated after incorporating pre-existing obesity and DM. The J-CAPRA score presented with good OS differentiation among Chinese patients under PADT. Younger patients (age ≤ 65) had better OS with pre-existing obesity, while older patients (age > 75) had worse OS with pre-existing DM.

Circulating Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Has Diagnostic and Prognostic Value in Traumatic Brain Injury

PubMed Central

Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Wu, Alan H. B.; Yue, John K.; Manley, Geoffrey T.; Sair, Haris I.; Van Eyk, Jennifer; Everett, Allen D.; Okonkwo, David O.; Valadka, Alex B.; Gordon, Wayne A.; Maas, Andrew I.R.; Mukherjee, Pratik; Yuh, Esther L.; Lingsma, Hester F.; Puccio, Ava M.; Schnyer, David M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is important for neuronal survival and regeneration. We investigated the diagnostic and prognostic values of serum BDNF in traumatic brain injury (TBI). We examined serum BDNF in two independent cohorts of TBI cases presenting to the emergency departments (EDs) of the Johns Hopkins Hospital (JHH; n = 76) and San Francisco General Hospital (SFGH, n = 80), and a control group of JHH ED patients without TBI (n = 150). Findings were subsequently validated in the prospective, multi-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in TBI (TRACK-TBI) Pilot study (n = 159). We investigated the association between BDNF, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1) and recovery from TBI at 6 months in the TRACK-TBI Pilot cohort. Incomplete recovery was defined as having either post-concussive syndrome or a Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended score <8 at 6 months. Median day-of-injury BDNF concentrations (ng/mL) were lower among TBI cases (JHH TBI, 17.5 and SFGH TBI, 13.8) than in JHH controls (60.3; p = 0.0001). Among TRACK-TBI Pilot subjects, median BDNF concentrations (ng/mL) were higher in mild (8.3) than in moderate (4.3) or severe TBI (4.0; p = 0.004. In the TRACK-TBI cohort, the 75 (71.4%) subjects with very low BDNF values (i.e., prognostic information regarding recovery from TBI. Thus

Validation of the prognostic grouping of the seventh edition of the tumor-nodes-metastasis classification using a large-scale prospective cohort study database of prostate cancer treated with primary androgen deprivation therapy.

PubMed

Kimura, Tomokazu; Onozawa, Mizuki; Miyazaki, Jun; Kawai, Koji; Nishiyama, Hiroyuki; Hinotsu, Shiro; Akaza, Hideyuki

2013-09-01

In the TNM seventh edition, a prognostic grouping for prostate cancer incorporating prostate-specific antigen and Gleason score was advocated. The present study was carried out to evaluate and validate prognostic grouping in prostate cancer patients. The 15 259 study patients treated with primary androgen deprivation therapy were enrolled in the Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer. Overall survival was stratified by tumor-nodes-metastasis, Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen, and extensively analyzed. The accuracy of grouping systems was evaluated by the concordance index. The 5-year overall survival in prognostic grouping-I, IIA, IIB, III and IV was 90.0%, 88.3%, 84.8%, 80.6% and 57.1%, respectively. When considering subgroup stratification, the 5-year overall survival of subgroups prognostic grouping-IIA, IIB, III and IV was 80.9∼90.5%, 75.4∼91.8%, 75.7∼89.0% and 46.9∼86.2%, respectively. When prognostic grouping-IIB was subclassified into IIB1 (except IIB2) and IIB2 (T1-2b, prostate-specific antigen >20, Gleason score ≥8, and T2c, Gleason score ≥8), the 5-year overall survival of IIB2 was significantly lower than that of IIB1 (79.4% and 87.3%, P < 0.0001). Also, when prognostic grouping-IV was subclassified into IV1 (except IV2) and IV2 (M1, prostate-specific antigen >100 or Gleason score ≥8), the 5-year overall survival of prognostic grouping-IV1 was superior to that of IV2 (72.9% and 49.5%, P < 0.0001). Prognostic groupings were reclassified into modified prognostic groupings, divided into modified prognostic grouping-A (prognostic grouping-I, IIA, and IIB1), modified prognostic grouping-B (prognostic grouping-IIB2 and III), modified prognostic grouping-C (prognostic grouping-IV1) and modified prognostic grouping-D (prognostic grouping-IV2). The concordance index of prognostic grouping and modified prognostic grouping for overall survival was 0.670 and 0.685, respectively. Prognostic grouping could stratify the prognosis of

Evaluation of prognostic differences in elderly patients with pneumonia treated by between pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists: a propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Komiya, Kosaku; Oka, Hiroaki; Ohama, Minoru; Uchida, Masahiro; Miyajima, Hajime; Iwashita, Tomohiko; Okabe, Eiji; Shuto, Osamu; Matsumoto, Taisuke; Ishii, Hiroshi; Kadota, Jun-Ichi

2016-07-01

The incidence of pneumonia among elderly people is increasing in aged countries, and both pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists treat such patients. The aim of this study was to assess prognostic differences between elderly patients treated by pulmonologists and those treated by non-pulmonologists. This study was a retrospective cohort using a propensity score analysis. Patients 65 years of age or over with pneumonia were consecutively included. The propensity score was estimated based on the patient's background and severity of pneumonia. The difference in 30-day and 90-day mortality depending on the attending physician's specialty was analyzed after adjusting for other variables, including the propensity score. We assessed 68 and 182 patients treated by pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists, respectively. The pulmonologists tended to be in charge of patients with hypoxemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or dementia without aspiration pneumonia or renal dysfunction (area under receiver operating characteristic curve to predict treatment by a pulmonologist according to the propensity score = 0.737, P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, white blood count cell (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.000, P = 0.030) and the serum albumin level (0.382, P = 0.001) were associated with 30-day mortality, and a bedridden status (3.000, P = 0.013) and the serum albumin level (0.382, P < 0.001) were associated with 90-day mortality; however, the attending physician's specialty was not associated with these prognoses. The overall prognosis of pneumonia in elderly patients may not necessarily improve, irrespective of treatment by pulmonologists, and host factors seemed to be associated with mortality. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relating quality of life to Glasgow outcome scale health states.

PubMed

Kosty, Jennifer; Macyszyn, Luke; Lai, Kevin; McCroskery, James; Park, Hae-Ran; Stein, Sherman C

2012-05-01

There has recently been a call for the adoption of comparative effectiveness research (CER) and related research approaches for studying traumatic brain injury (TBI). These methods allow researchers to compare the effectiveness of different therapies in producing patient-oriented outcomes of interest. Heretofore, the only measures by which to compare such therapies have been mortality and rate of poor outcome. Better comparisons can be made if parametric, preference-based quality-of-life (QOL) values are available for intermediate outcomes, such as those described by the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE). Our objective was therefore to determine QOL for the health states described by the GOSE. We interviewed community members at least 18 years of age using the standard gamble method to assess QOL for descriptions of GOSE scores of 2-7 derived from the structured interview. Linear regression analysis was also performed to assess the effect of age, gender, and years of education on QOL. One hundred and one participants between the ages of 18 and 83 were interviewed (mean age 40 ± 19 years), including 55 men and 46 women. Functional impairment and QOL showed a strong inverse relationship, as assessed by both linear regression and the Spearman rank order coefficient. No consistent effect or age, gender, or years of education was seen. As expected, QOL decreased with functional outcome as described by the GOSE. The results of this study will provide the groundwork for future groups seeking to apply CER methods to clinical studies of TBI.

Predictors for in-hospital mortality and need for clinical intervention in upper GI bleeding: a 5-year observational study.

PubMed

Balaban, D V; Strâmbu, V; Florea, B G; Cazan, A R; Brătucu, M; Jinga, M

2014-01-01

Upper GI bleeding (UGIB) is a potentially life threatening gastrointestinal emergency whose effective management depends on early risk stratification. We retrospectively studied 151 patients admitted to our unit with UGIB between 1st January 2007 and 31st December 2011 and in whom we calculated the clinical and complete Rockall, the Glasgow-Blatchford and modified Glasgow-Blatchford risk scores. We performed an analysis of the predictive value of these scores for in-hospital mortality and need for clinical intervention. Of the 151 patients enrolled, 68.87% were male, and the mean age was 59.48 years. One in three patients had a history of chronic liver disease and one in eight had a previous episode of UGIB. Clinically, 58.3% of the patients presented with melena, 18.5% with hematemesis and 23.1% with both hematemesis and melena. 22% of cases were variceal hemorrhages and the other non-variceal. 16 patients died during hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of all four scores for in-hospital death and need for clinical intervention was good, the complete Rockall score having the best performance (AUROC 0.849 and 0.653 respectively). The Rockall and Blatchford scores were good predictors of mortality and need for clinical intervention in our study. The good predictive performance of these scores highlight the need for their use in day-to-day practice to select patients with likelihood of poor clinical outcome. Celsius.

[Prognostic parameters in liver cirrhosis, varicose bleeding and sclerosing therapy. Prospective comparison of a prognostic system with the Child classification obtained by discriminant analysis].

PubMed

Sauerbruch, T; Ansari, H; Wotzka, R; Soehendra, N; Köpcke, W

1988-01-08

Prospective prognosis systems for predicting half-year death-rate after bleeding from oesophageal varices and sclerotherapy were tested on 129 patients. The receiver-operating-characteristic curves of three discriminant scores were compared with the Child-Pugh classification. It was found that the latter is still the best for prognosticating the course of the disease. A simplified discriminant score which contains as its only factors bilirubin and the Quick value does, however, give nearly as good information.

The geriatric polytrauma: Risk profile and prognostic factors.

PubMed

Rupprecht, Holger; Heppner, Hans Jürgen; Wohlfart, Kristina; Türkoglu, Alp

2017-03-01

In the German population, the percentage of elderly patients is increasing, and consequently there are more elderly patients among trauma cases, and particularly cases of polytrauma. The aim of this study was to present clinical results and a risk profile for geriatric polytrauma patients. Review of 140 geriatric (over 65 years of age) polytrauma patients who received prehospital treatment was performed. Severity of trauma was retrospectively assessed with Hannover Polytrauma Score (HPTS). Age, hemoglobin (Hb) level, systolic blood pressure (BP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, timing of and necessity for intubation were analyzed in relation to mortality and in comparison with younger patients. Geriatric polytrauma patients (n=140) had overall mortality rate of 65%, whereas younger patients (n=1468) had mortality rate of 15.9%. Despite equivalent severity of injury (HPTS less age points) in geriatric and non-geriatric groups, mortality rate was 4 times higher in geriatric group. Major blood loss with Hb <8 g/dL was revealed to be 3 times more fatal than moderate or minor blood loss (Hb ≥8 g/dL). GCS score <12 corresponded to double mortality rate (39% vs 83%). Age by itself is significant risk factor and predictor of increased mortality in polytrauma patients. Additional risk factors include very low GCS score and systolic BP <80 mm Hg, for instance, as potential clinical indicators of massive bleeding and traumatic brain injury. Such parameters demand early and rapid treatment at prehospital stage and on admission.

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun, E-mail: skye@kfsyscc.org; Clinical Research Office, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina

2013-03-15

Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results:more » The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.« less

Prognostic value of Helicobacter pylori sinonasal colonization for efficacy of endoscopic sinus surgery.

PubMed

Jelavic, Boris; Grgić, Marko; Cupić, Hrvoje; Kordić, Mirko; Vasilj, Mirjana; Baudoin, Tomislav

2012-10-01

Compared with rhinologic patients without chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS), a higher prevalence of sinonasal Helicobacter pylori (HP) in patients with CRS was found. This study investigated if HP sinonasal colonization has a prognostic value for efficacy of functional endoscopic sinus surgery (FESS). Nasal polyps of 40 patients with CRS, undergoing FESS, were analyzed for presence of HP using immunohistochemistry (IHC). Patients were categorized as to whether the IHC was positive (HP+ group) or negative (HP- group). HP+ group and HP- group were compared according to the nasal polyp eosinophil density, and to the improvement (difference between pre- and post-operative scores) of the subjective symptom scores, and the nasal endoscopic scores. Nasal polyps in 28 (70%) patients were positive for HP. There were no significant differences between HP+ group and HP- group comparing the eosinophils, and the improvement of the single symptom and the total symptom scores. HP+ group had significantly greater improvement of the nasal endoscopic scores (F[1.38] = 6.212; P = 0.017). There is no influence of sinonasal HP on tissue eosinophilia and on CRS symptoms. There is a prognostic value for endonasal findings: CRS patients with HP have statistically significant greater improvement of the postoperative endoscopic scores.

The Use of Electronic Information Services and Information Literacy: A Glasgow Caledonian University Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, John

2006-01-01

The study was undertaken as part of the LIRG/SCONUL Value and Impact study and sought to establish direct evidence of the impact of electronic information services (EIS) on Glasgow Caledonian University students, both past and present. Evidence of the spread of information literacy among students and alumni was also sought. An electronic…

Comparison of the sequential organ failure assessment score with the King's College Hospital criteria and the model for end-stage liver disease score for the prognosis of acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure.

PubMed

Cholongitas, Evangelos; Theocharidou, Eleni; Vasianopoulou, Panayota; Betrosian, Alex; Shaw, Steve; Patch, David; O'Beirne, James; Agarwal, Banwari; Burroughs, Andrew K

2012-04-01

Acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (ALF) is a complex multiorgan illness. An assessment of the prognosis is essential for the accurate identification of patients for whom survival without liver transplantation (LT) is unlikely. The aims of this study were the comparison of prognostic models [King's College Hospital (KCH), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II)] and the identification of independent prognostic indicators of outcome. We evaluated consecutive patients with severe acetaminophen-induced ALF who were admitted to the intensive care unit. At admission, demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters were recorded. The discriminative ability of each prognostic score at the baseline was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In addition, using a multiple logistic regression, we assessed independent factors associated with outcome. In all, 125 consecutive patients with acetaminophen-induced ALF were evaluated: 67 patients (54%) survived with conservative medical management (group 1), and 58 patients (46%) either died without LT (28%) or underwent LT (18%; group 2). Group 1 patients had significantly lower median APACHE II (10 versus 14) and SOFA scores (9 versus 12) than group 2 patients (P < 0.001). The independent indicators associated with death or LT were a longer prothrombin time (P = 0.007), the inspiratory oxygen concentration (P = 0.005), and the lactate level at 12 hours (P < 0.001). The KCH criteria had the highest specificity (83%) but the lowest sensitivity (47%), and the SOFA score had the best discriminative ability (AUC = 0.79). In conclusion, for patients with acetaminophen-induced ALF, the SOFA score performed better than the other prognostic scores, and this reflected the presence of multiorgan dysfunction. A further evaluation of SOFA with the KCH criteria is warranted. Copyright © 2012

Prognostic Impact of Indocyanine Green Plasma Disappearance Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients after Radiofrequency Ablation: A Prognostic Nomogram Study

PubMed Central

Azumi, Motoi; Suda, Takeshi; Terai, Shuji; Akazawa, Kouhei

2017-01-01

Objective Radiofrequency ablation has been used widely for the local ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly in its early stages. The study aim was to identify significant prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who have undergone radiofrequency ablation. We also developed the formula to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival based on clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively studied 96 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radiofrequency ablation as a first-line treatment. Independent and significant factors affecting the overall survival were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a prognostic nomogram was developed based on these factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's concordance index and compared with the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score and Japan Integrated Staging score. Results A multivariate analysis revealed that age, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate, and log(des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) level were independent and significant factors influencing the overall survival. The nomogram was based on these three factors. The mean concordance index of the nomogram was 0.74±0.08, which was significantly better than that of conventional staging systems using the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.54±0.03) and Japan Integrated Staging score (0.59±0.07). Conclusion This study suggested that the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate and age at radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) are good predictors of the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation. We successfully developed a nomogram using obtainable variables before treatment. PMID:28458303

Prognostic Impact of Indocyanine Green Plasma Disappearance Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients after Radiofrequency Ablation: A Prognostic Nomogram Study.

PubMed

Azumi, Motoi; Suda, Takeshi; Terai, Shuji; Akazawa, Kouhei

2017-01-01

Objective Radiofrequency ablation has been used widely for the local ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly in its early stages. The study aim was to identify significant prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who have undergone radiofrequency ablation. We also developed the formula to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival based on clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively studied 96 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radiofrequency ablation as a first-line treatment. Independent and significant factors affecting the overall survival were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a prognostic nomogram was developed based on these factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's concordance index and compared with the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score and Japan Integrated Staging score. Results A multivariate analysis revealed that age, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate, and log (des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) level were independent and significant factors influencing the overall survival. The nomogram was based on these three factors. The mean concordance index of the nomogram was 0.74±0.08, which was significantly better than that of conventional staging systems using the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.54±0.03) and Japan Integrated Staging score (0.59±0.07). Conclusion This study suggested that the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate and age at radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) are good predictors of the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation. We successfully developed a nomogram using obtainable variables before treatment.

Pediatric trauma BIG score: Predicting mortality in polytraumatized pediatric patients.

PubMed

El-Gamasy, Mohamed Abd El-Aziz; Elezz, Ahmed Abd El Basset Abo; Basuni, Ahmed Sobhy Mohamed; Elrazek, Mohamed El Sayed Ali Abd

2016-11-01

Trauma is a worldwide health problem and the major cause of death and disability, particularly affecting the young population. It is important to remember that pediatric trauma care has made a significant improvement in the outcomes of these injured children. This study aimed at evaluation of pediatric trauma BIG score in comparison with New Injury Severity Score (NISS) and Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS) in Tanta University Emergency Hospital. The study was conducted in Tanta University Emergency Hospital to all multiple trauma pediatric patients attended to the Emergency Department for 1 year. Pediatric trauma BIG score, PTS, and NISS scores were calculated and results compared to each other and to observed mortality. BIG score ≥12.7 has sensitivity 86.7% and specificity 71.4%, whereas PTS at value ≤3.5 has sensitivity 63.3% and specificity 68.6% and NISS at value ≥39.5 has sensitivity 53.3% and specificity 54.3%. There was a significant positive correlation between BIG score value and mortality rate. The pediatric BIG score is a reliable mortality-prediction score for children with traumatic injuries; it uses international normalization ratio (INR), Base Excess (BE), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) values that can be measured within a few minutes of sampling, so it can be readily applied in the Pediatric Emergency Department, but it cannot be applied on patients with chronic diseases that affect INR, BE, or GCS.

The relationship between pneumonia and Glasgow coma scale assessment on acute stroke patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritarwan, K.; Batubara, C. A.; Dhanu, R.

2018-03-01

Pneumonia is one of the most frequent medical complications of a stroke. Despite the well-documented association of a stroke associated infections with increased mortality and worse long-term outcome, on the other hand, the limited data available on independent predictors of pneumonia in acute stroke patients in an emergency unit. To determine the independentrelationship between pneumonia and Glasgow Coma Scale assessment on acute stroke patients. The cohort retrospective study observed 55 acute stroke patients who stayed in intensive care unit Adam Malik General Hospital from January until August 2017. Pneumonia was more frequent in patients with Ischemic stroke (OR 5.40; 95% CI: 1.28 – 6.40, p=0.003), higher National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (p=0.014) and lower Glasgow Coma Scale (p=0.0001). Analysis multivariate logistic regression identified NIHSS as an independent of predictors of pneumonia (95% CI : 1.047 – 1.326, p=0.001). Pneumonia was associated with severity and type of stroke and length of hospital stay. The severity of the deficits evaluated by the NIHSS was shown to be the only independent risk factor for pneumonia in acute stroke patients.

FCG (FLIPI, Charlson comorbidity index, and histological grade) score is superior to FLIPI in advanced follicular lymphoma.

PubMed

Mihaljevic, Biljana; Jelicic, Jelena; Andjelic, Bosko; Antic, Darko; Markovic, Olivera; Petkovic, Ivan; Jovanovic, Maja Perunicic; Trajkovic, Goran; Bila, Jelena; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Smiljanic, Mihailo; Balint, Milena Todorovic

2016-12-01

The Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) is widely used in the identification of risk groups among follicular lymphoma (FL) patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of FLIPI combined with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and histological grade of lymphoma. 224 newly diagnosed FL patients (median age 56 years) treated with immunochemotherapy were retrospectively analysed. Low FLIPI had 21.0 % of patients, intermediate 28.1 % and high 46.9 %. 50.9 % of patients had no comorbidities. Only 7.1 % of patients had a high CCI score (≥2), while 25.9 % of patients were histological grade 3. Parameters that influenced overall survival were evaluated using Cox regression analysis, in which CCI, FLIPI and histological grade (p < 0.05) retained prognostic significance. By combining these parameters, we have developed the FCG score, which incorporates FLIPI, CCI, and histological grade. This score defines three risk categories (low: 41.5 %; intermediate: 37.5 %; high: 13.4 %), associated with significantly different survival (p < 0.0001); this consequently improves discriminative power by 9.1 % compared to FLIPI. FCG score represents a possible new prognostic index, highlighting the role of the patient's clinical state and the histological characteristics of disease, as indicated by comorbidity index and histological grade of lymphoma.

Prognostic Value of AIMS65 Score in Cirrhotic Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Gaduputi, Vinaya; Abdulsamad, Molham; Tariq, Hassan; Rafeeq, Ahmed; Abbas, Naeem; Kumbum, Kavitha; Chilimuri, Sridhar

2014-01-01

Introduction. Unlike Rockall scoring system, AIMS65 is based only on clinical and laboratory features. In this study we investigated the correlation between the AIMS65 score and Endoscopic Rockall score, in cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients. Methods. This is a retrospective study of patients admitted with overt UGIB and undergoing esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). AIMS65 and Rockall scores were calculated at the time of admission. We investigated the correlation between both scores along with stigmata of bleed seen on endoscopy. Results. A total of 1255 patients were studied. 152 patients were cirrhotic while 1103 patients were noncirrhotic. There was significant correlation between AIMS65 and Total Rockall scores in patients of both groups. There was significant correlation between AIMS65 score and Endoscopic Rockall score in noncirrhotics but not cirrhotics. AIMS65 scores in both cirrhotic and noncirrhotic groups were significantly higher in patients who died from UGIB than in patients who did not. Conclusion. We observed statistically significant correlation between AIMS65 score and length of hospitalization and mortality in noncirrhotic patients. We found that AIMS65 score paralleled the endoscopic grading of lesion causing UGIB in noncirrhotics. AIMS65 score correlated only with mortality but not the length of hospitalization or endoscopic stigmata of bleed in cirrhotics.

Preoperative prognostic factors for mortality in peptic ulcer perforation: a systematic review.

PubMed

Møller, Morten Hylander; Adamsen, Sven; Thomsen, Reimar Wernich; Møller, Ann Merete

2010-08-01

Mortality and morbidity following perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is substantial and probably related to the development of sepsis. During the last three decades a large number of preoperative prognostic factors in patients with PPU have been examined. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize available evidence on these prognostic factors. MEDLINE (January 1966 to June 2009), EMBASE (January 1980 to June 2009), and the Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2009) were screened for studies reporting preoperative prognostic factors for mortality in patients with PPU. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed. Summary relative risks with 95% confidence intervals for the identified prognostic factors were calculated and presented as Forest plots. Fifty prognostic studies with 37 prognostic factors comprising a total of 29,782 patients were included in the review. The overall methodological quality was acceptable, yet only two-thirds of the studies provided confounder adjusted estimates. The studies provided strong evidence for an association of older age, comorbidity, and use of NSAIDs or steroids with mortality. Shock upon admission, preoperative metabolic acidosis, tachycardia, acute renal failure, low serum albumin level, high American Society of Anaesthesiologists score, and preoperative delay >24 h were associated with poor prognosis. In patients with PPU, a number of negative prognostic factors can be identified prior to surgery, and many of these seem to be related to presence of the sepsis syndrome.

A novel prognostic six-CpG signature in glioblastomas.

PubMed

Yin, An-An; Lu, Nan; Etcheverry, Amandine; Aubry, Marc; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill; Zhang, Lu-Hua; Mosser, Jean; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Yu-He; He, Ya-Long

2018-03-01

We aimed to identify a clinically useful biomarker using DNA methylation-based information to optimize individual treatment of patients with glioblastoma (GBM). A six-CpG panel was identified by incorporating genome-wide DNA methylation data and clinical information of three distinct discovery sets and was combined using a risk-score model. Different validation sets of GBMs and lower-grade gliomas and different statistical methods were implemented for prognostic evaluation. An integrative analysis of multidimensional TCGA data was performed to molecularly characterize different risk tumors. The six-CpG risk-score signature robustly predicted overall survival (OS) in all discovery and validation cohorts and in a treatment-independent manner. It also predicted progression-free survival (PFS) in available patients. The multimarker epigenetic signature was demonstrated as an independent prognosticator and had better performance than known molecular indicators such as glioma-CpG island methylator phenotype (G-CIMP) and proneural subtype. The defined risk subgroups were molecularly distinct; high-risk tumors were biologically more aggressive with concordant activation of proangiogenic signaling at multimolecular levels. Accordingly, we observed better OS benefits of bevacizumab-contained therapy to high-risk patients in independent sets, supporting its implication in guiding usage of antiangiogenic therapy. Finally, the six-CpG signature refined the risk classification based on G-CIMP and MGMT methylation status. The novel six-CpG signature is a robust and independent prognostic indicator for GBMs and is of promising value to improve personalized management. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score.

PubMed

Martinez-Garcia, M A; Athanazio, R A; Girón, R; Máiz-Carro, L; de la Rosa, D; Olveira, C; de Gracia, J; Vendrell, M; Prados-Sánchez, C; Gramblicka, G; Corso Pereira, M; Lundgren, F L; Fernandes De Figueiredo, M; Arancibia, F; Rached, S Z

2017-01-01

Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P <0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED. E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score's simplicity and prognostic capacity for

Prognostic value of circulating VEGFR2+ bone marrow-derived progenitor cells in patients with advanced cancer.

PubMed

Massard, Christophe; Borget, Isabelle; Le Deley, Marie Cécile; Taylor, Melissa; Gomez-Roca, Carlos; Soria, Jean Charles; Farace, Françoise

2012-06-01

We hypothesised that host-related markers, possibly reflecting tumour aggressiveness, such as circulating endothelial cells (CEC) and circulating VEGFR2(+) bone marrow-derived (BMD) progenitor cells, could have prognostic value in patients with advanced cancer enrolled in early anticancer drug development trials. Baseline CECs (CD45(-)CD31(+)CD146(+)7AAD(-) cells) and circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells (defined as CD45(dim)CD34(+)VEGFR2(+)7AAD(-) cells) were measured by flow-cytometry in 71 and 58 patients included in phase 1 trials testing novel anti-vascular or anti-angiogenic agents. Correlations between levels of CECs, circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells, clinical and biological prognostic factors (i.e. the Royal Marsden Hospital (RMH) score), and overall survival (OS) were studied. The median value of CECs was 12 CEC/ml (range 0-154/ml). The median level of VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells was 1.3% (range 0-32.5%) of circulating BMD-CD34(+) progenitors. While OS was not correlated with CEC levels, it was significantly worse in patients with high VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels (>1%) (median OS 9.0 versus 17.0 months), and with a RMH prognostic score >0 (median OS 9.0 versus 24.2 months). The prognostic value of VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels remained significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-4.6, p = 0.02) after multivariate analysis. A composite VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor level/RHM score ≥ 2 was significantly associated with an increased risk of death compared to scores of 0 or 1 (median OS 9.0 versus 18.4 months, HR = 2.6 (95%CI, 1.2-5.8, p = 0.02)). High circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels are associated with poor prognostics and when combined to classical clinical and biological parameters could provide a new tool for patient selection in early anticancer drug trials. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trauma infant neurologic score predicts the outcome of traumatic brain injury in infants.

PubMed

Yi, Wei; Liu, Renzhong; Chen, Jian; Tao, Shengzhong; Humphrey, Okechi; Bergenheim, A Tommy

2010-01-01

To investigate the clinical features of infancy traumatic brain injury (TBI) and the prognostic value of the Trauma Infant Neurologic Score (TINS), infants < 2 years of age with TBI who were admitted from 2000 to 2007 were retrospectively studied. Fifty-six patients with a mean age of 13.3 ± 6.5 months (range = 2-24) were identified. The clinical diagnoses, in terms of the severest injury, included scalp hematomas (n = 2), skull bone fractures (n = 3), epidural hematomas (n = 21), subdural hematomas (n = 14), cerebral contusion and laceration (n = 4), intracerebral hematomas (n = 7), traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (n = 2), diffuse axonal injury (n = 2) and diffuse brain swelling (n = 1). The most common clinical presentations were vomiting (66.1%), paleness (55.4%), irritability (37.3%), pupillary abnormalities (35.7%) and altered consciousness (32.1%). The mechanism of injury included falls (n = 41), vehicle accident (n = 9), abuse (n = 4) and unknown (n = 2). The TINS score ranged from 1 to 10 with a mean of 3.6 (SD = 2.4) in the whole patient cohort. The Children's Coma Scores (CCS) on admission were 13-15 (n = 31), 9-12 (n = 7) and 3-8 (n = 18). Thirty-nine of the infants were operated on and the other 17 infants were treated nonsurgically. Forty-eight patients (86%) were followed up for a period of 1-8 years (mean = 4.4) after discharge. In the followed-up patient cohort, the mean TINS score at admission was 3.8 ± 2.5. The total clinical outcome, according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS), was: 37 (77.1%) good recovery, 4 (8.3%) moderately disabled, 1 (2.1%) vegetative and 6 (12.5%) dead. For those who were operated on the outcome was: 25 (78.1%) good recovery, 4 (12.5%) moderately disabled and 3 (9.4%) dead, and for those who were not operated on: 12 (75.0%) good recovery, 1 (6.3%) vegetative and 3 (25.0%) dead. At two years of follow-up, the GOS included 34 (73.9%) good recovery, 3 (6.5%) moderately disabled, 2 (4.3%) severely disabled, 1 (2

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

PubMed

Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F

2016-03-01

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Prognostic value of changes in brain tissue oxygen pressure before and after decompressive craniectomy following severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Lubillo, Santiago T; Parrilla, Dácil M; Blanco, José; Morera, Jesús; Dominguez, Jaime; Belmonte, Felipe; López, Patricia; Molina, Ismael; Ruiz, Candelaria; Clemente, Francisco J; Godoy, Daniel A

2018-05-01

OBJECTIVE In severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), the effects of decompressive craniectomy (DC) on brain tissue oxygen pressure (PbtO 2 ) and outcome are unclear. The authors aimed to investigate whether changes in PbtO 2 after DC could be used as an independent prognostic factor. METHODS The authors conducted a retrospective, observational study at 2 university hospital ICUs. The study included 42 patients who were admitted with isolated moderate or severe TBI and underwent intracranial pressure (ICP) and PbtO 2 monitoring before and after DC. The indication for DC was an ICP higher than 25 mm Hg refractory to first-tier medical treatment. Patients who underwent primary DC for mass lesion evacuation were excluded. However, patients were included who had undergone previous surgery as long as it was not a craniectomy. ICP/PbtO 2 monitoring probes were located in an apparently normal area of the most damaged hemisphere based on cranial CT scanning findings. PbtO 2 values were routinely recorded hourly before and after DC, but for comparisons the authors used the first PbtO 2 value on ICU admission and the number of hours with PbtO 2 < 15 mm Hg before DC, as well as the mean PbtO 2 every 6 hours during 24 hours pre- and post-DC. The end point of the study was the 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale; a score of 4 or 5 was considered a favorable outcome, whereas a score of 1-3 was considered an unfavorable outcome. RESULTS Of the 42 patients included, 26 underwent unilateral DC and 16 bilateral DC. The median Glasgow Coma Scale score at the scene of the accident or at the initial hospital before the patient was transferred to one of the 2 ICUs was 7 (interquartile range [IQR] 4-14). The median time from admission to DC was 49 hours (IQR 7-301 hours). Before DC, the median ICP and PbtO 2 at 6 hours were 35 mm Hg (IQR 28-51 mm Hg) and 11.4 mm Hg (IQR 3-26 mm Hg), respectively. In patients with favorable outcome, PbtO 2 at ICU admission was higher and the percentage of time that

Incidence and prognostic factors for postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Koorevaar, Rinco C T; Van't Riet, Esther; Ipskamp, Marcel; Bulstra, Sjoerd K

2017-03-01

Frozen shoulder is a potential complication after shoulder surgery. It is a clinical condition that is often associated with marked disability and can have a profound effect on the patient's quality of life. The incidence, etiology, pathology and prognostic factors of postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery are not known. The purpose of this explorative study was to determine the incidence of postoperative frozen shoulder after various operative shoulder procedures. A second aim was to identify prognostic factors for postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery. 505 consecutive patients undergoing elective shoulder surgery were included in this prospective cohort study. Follow-up was 6 months after surgery. A prediction model was developed to identify prognostic factors for postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery using the TRIPOD guidelines. We nominated five potential predictors: gender, diabetes mellitus, type of physiotherapy, arthroscopic surgery and DASH score. Frozen shoulder was identified in 11% of the patients after shoulder surgery and was more common in females (15%) than in males (8%). Frozen shoulder was encountered after all types of operative procedures. A prediction model based on four variables (diabetes mellitus, specialized shoulder physiotherapy, arthroscopic surgery and DASH score) discriminated reasonably well with an AUC of 0.712. Postoperative frozen shoulder is a serious complication after shoulder surgery, with an incidence of 11%. Four prognostic factors were identified for postoperative frozen shoulder: diabetes mellitus, arthroscopic surgery, specialized shoulder physiotherapy and DASH score. The combination of these four variables provided a prediction rule for postoperative frozen shoulder with reasonable fit. Level II, prospective cohort study.

A nationwide multi-institutional retrospective study to identify prognostic factors and develop a graded prognostic assessment system for patients with brain metastases from uterine corpus and cervical cancer.

PubMed

Hayashi, Nakamasa; Takahashi, Hideaki; Hasegawa, Yuzo; Higuchi, Fumi; Takahashi, Masamichi; Makino, Keishi; Takagaki, Masatoshi; Akimoto, Jiro; Okuda, Takeshi; Okita, Yoshiko; Mitsuya, Koichi; Hirashima, Yasuyuki; Narita, Yoshitaka; Nakasu, Yoko

2017-06-02

The prevalence of brain metastases (BM) from uterine cancer has recently increased because of the improvement of overall survival (OS) of patients with uterine cancer due to its early detection and improved local control as a result of new effective treatments. However, little information is available regarding their clinical characteristics and prognosis, because oncologists have encountered BM from uterine cancer on rare occasions. Records from 81 patients with uterine BM were collected from 10 institutes in Japan. These were used in a multi-institutional study to identify prognostic factors and develop a graded prognostic assessment (GPA) for patients with BM from uterine cancer. Median OS after the development of BM was 7 months (95% confidence interval, 4 to 10 months). Multivariate analysis revealed that there were survival differences according to the existence of extracranial metastases and number of BM. In the present uterine-GPA, a score of 0 was assigned to those patients with ≥5 BM and extracranial metastasis, a score of 2 was assigned to those patients with one to four BM or without extracranial metastasis, and a score of 4 was assigned to those patients with one to four BM and without extracranial metastasis. The median OS for patients with a uterine-GPA scores of 0, 2, and 4 was 3, 7, and 22 months, respectively. A survival analysis confirmed the presence of statistically significant differences between these groups (p < 0.05). The results were validated by data obtained from the National Report of Brain Tumor Registry of Japan. Uterine GPA incorporates two simple clinical parameters of high prognostic significance and can be used to predict the expected survival times in patients with BM from uterine cancer. Its use may help in determining an appropriate treatment for individual patients with BM.

Predicting complete cytogenetic response and subsequent progression-free survival in 2060 patients with CML on imatinib treatment: the EUTOS score.

PubMed

Hasford, Joerg; Baccarani, Michele; Hoffmann, Verena; Guilhot, Joelle; Saussele, Susanne; Rosti, Gianantonio; Guilhot, François; Porkka, Kimmo; Ossenkoppele, Gert; Lindoerfer, Doris; Simonsson, Bengt; Pfirrmann, Markus; Hehlmann, Rudiger

2011-07-21

The outcome of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has been profoundly changed by the introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors into therapy, but the prognosis of patients with CML is still evaluated using prognostic scores developed in the chemotherapy and interferon era. The present work describes a new prognostic score that is superior to the Sokal and Euro scores both in its prognostic ability and in its simplicity. The predictive power of the score was developed and tested on a group of patients selected from a registry of 2060 patients enrolled in studies of first-line treatment with imatinib-based regimes. The EUTOS score using the percentage of basophils and spleen size best discriminated between high-risk and low-risk groups of patients, with a positive predictive value of not reaching a CCgR of 34%. Five-year progression-free survival was significantly better in the low- than in the high-risk group (90% vs 82%, P = .006). These results were confirmed in the validation sample. The score can be used to identify CML patients with significantly lower probabilities of responding to therapy and survival, thus alerting physicians to those patients who require closer observation and early intervention.

Application of the FOUR Score in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Braksick, Sherri A; Hemphill, J Claude; Mandrekar, Jay; Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Fugate, Jennifer E

2018-06-01

The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a validated scale describing the essentials of a coma examination, including motor response, eye opening and eye movements, brainstem reflexes, and respiratory pattern. We incorporated the FOUR Score into the existing ICH Score and evaluated its accuracy of risk assessment in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Consecutive patients admitted to our institution from 2009 to 2012 with spontaneous ICH were reviewed. The ICH Score was calculated using patient age, hemorrhage location, hemorrhage volume, evidence of intraventricular extension, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The FOUR Score was then incorporated into the ICH Score as a substitute for the GCS (ICH Score FS ). The ability of the 2 scores to predict mortality at 1 month was then compared. In total, 274 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 73 years (interquartile range 60-82) and 138 (50.4%) were male. Overall mortality at 1 month was 28.8% (n = 79). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .91 for the ICH Score and .89 for the ICH Score FS . For ICH Scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, 1-month mortality was 4.2%, 29.9%, 62.5%, 95.0%, and 100%. In the ICH Score FS model, mortality was 10.7%, 26.5%, 64.5%, 88.9%, and 100% for scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The ICH Score and the ICH Score FS predict 1-month mortality with comparable accuracy. As the FOUR Score provides additional clinical information regarding patient status, it may be a reasonable substitute for the GCS into the ICH Score. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hyperfibrinogenemia is a poor prognostic factor in diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Niu, Jun-Ying; Tian, Tian; Zhu, Hua-Yuan; Liang, Jin-Hua; Wu, Wei; Cao, Lei; Lu, Rui-Nan; Wang, Li; Li, Jian-Yong; Xu, Wei

2018-06-02

Diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphomas worldwide. Previous studies indicated that hyperfibrinogenemia was a poor predictor in various tumors. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the prognostic effect of hyperfibrinogenemia in DLBCL. Data of 228 patients, who were diagnosed with DLBCL in our hospital between May 2009 and February 2016, were analyzed retrospectively. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were performed to find prognostic factors associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the areas under the curve were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of predictors. Comparison of characters between groups indicated that patients with high National Comprehensive Cancer Network-International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI) score (4-8) and advanced stage (III-IV) were more likely to suffer from hyperfibrinogenemia. The Kaplan-Meier method revealed that patients with hyperfibrinogenemia showed inferior PFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001) than those without hyperfibrinogenemia. Multivariate analysis showed that hyperfibrinogenemia was an independent prognostic factor associated with poor outcomes (HR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.15-3.16 for PFS, P = 0.013; HR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.46-4.79 for OS, P = 0.001). We combined hyperfibrinogenemia and NCCN-IPI to build a new prognostic index (NPI). The NPI was demonstrated to have a superior predictive effect on prognosis (P = 0.0194 for PFS, P = 0.0034 for OS). Hyperfibrinogenemia was demonstrated to be able to predict poor outcome in DLBCL, especially for patients with advanced stage and high NCCN-IPI score. Adding hyperfibrinogenemia to NCCN-IPI could significantly improve the predictive effect of NCCN-IPI.

SYNTAX score based on coronary computed tomography angiography may have a prognostic value in patients with complex coronary artery disease: An observational study from a retrospective cohort.

PubMed

Suh, Young Joo; Han, Kyunghwa; Chang, Suyon; Kim, Jin Young; Im, Dong Jin; Hong, Yoo Jin; Lee, Hye-Jeong; Hur, Jin; Kim, Young Jin; Choi, Byoung Wook

2017-09-01

The SYNergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with TAXus and cardiac surgery (SYNTAX) score is an invasive coronary angiography (ICA)-based score for quantifying the complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD). Although the SYNTAX score was originally developed based on ICA, recent publications have reported that coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is a feasible modality for the estimation of the SYNTAX score.The aim of our study was to investigate the prognostic value of the SYNTAX score, based on CCTA for the prediction of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) in patients with complex CAD.The current study was approved by the institutional review board of our institution, and informed consent was waived for this retrospective cohort study. We included 251 patients (173 men, mean age 66.0 ± 9.29 years) who had complex CAD [3-vessel disease or left main (LM) disease] on CCTA. SYNTAX score was obtained on the basis of CCTA. Follow-up clinical outcome data regarding composite MACCEs were also obtained. Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict the risk of MACCEs based on clinical variables, treatment, and computed tomography (CT)-SYNTAX scores.During the median follow-up period of 1517 days, there were 48 MACCEs. Univariate Cox hazards models demonstrated that MACCEs were associated with advanced age, low body mass index (BMI), and dyslipidemia (P < .2). In patients with LM disease, MACCEs were associated with a higher SYNTAX score. In patients with CT-SYNTAX score ≥23, patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention had significantly lower hazard ratios than patients who were treated with medication alone. In multivariate Cox hazards model, advanced age, low BMI, and higher SYNTAX score showed an increased hazard ratio for MACCE, while treatment with CABG showed a lower hazard ratio (P < .2).On the basis of our results, CT-SYNTAX score

Model for predicting the injury severity score.

PubMed

Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

2015-07-01

To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  < 0.05. To select objective variables, the stepwise method was used. A total of 122 patients were included in this study. The formula for predicting the injury severity score (ISS) was as follows: ISS = 13.252-0.078(mean blood pressure) + 0.12(fibrin degradation products). The P -value of this formula from analysis of variance was <0.001, and the multiple correlation coefficient (R) was 0.739 (R 2  = 0.546). The multiple correlation coefficient adjusted for the degrees of freedom was 0.538. The Durbin-Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

A new biologic prognostic model based on immunohistochemistry predicts survival in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Perry, Anamarija M; Cardesa-Salzmann, Teresa M; Meyer, Paul N; Colomo, Luis; Smith, Lynette M; Fu, Kai; Greiner, Timothy C; Delabie, Jan; Gascoyne, Randy D; Rimsza, Lisa; Jaffe, Elaine S; Ott, German; Rosenwald, Andreas; Braziel, Rita M; Tubbs, Raymond; Cook, James R; Staudt, Louis M; Connors, Joseph M; Sehn, Laurie H; Vose, Julie M; López-Guillermo, Armando; Campo, Elias; Chan, Wing C; Weisenburger, Dennis D

2012-09-13

Biologic factors that predict the survival of patients with a diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, such as cell of origin and stromal signatures, have been discovered by gene expression profiling. We attempted to simulate these gene expression profiling findings and create a new biologic prognostic model based on immunohistochemistry. We studied 199 patients (125 in the training set, 74 in the validation set) with de novo diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with rituximab and CHOP (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone) or CHOP-like therapies, and immunohistochemical stains were performed on paraffin-embedded tissue microarrays. In the model, 1 point was awarded for each adverse prognostic factor: nongerminal center B cell-like subtype, SPARC (secreted protein, acidic, and rich in cysteine) < 5%, and microvascular density quartile 4. The model using these 3 biologic markers was highly predictive of overall survival and event-free survival in multivariate analysis after adjusting for the International Prognostic Index in both the training and validation sets. This new model delineates 2 groups of patients, 1 with a low biologic score (0-1) and good survival and the other with a high score (2-3) and poor survival. This new biologic prognostic model could be used with the International Prognostic Index to stratify patients for novel or risk-adapted therapies.

Surgery or stereotactic body radiotherapy for elderly stage I lung cancer? A propensity score matching analysis.

PubMed

Miyazaki, Takuro; Yamazaki, Takuya; Nakamura, Daisuke; Sato, Shuntaro; Yamasaki, Naoya; Tsuchiya, Tomoshi; Matsumoto, Keitaro; Kamohara, Ryotaro; Hatachi, Go; Nagayasu, Takeshi

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of surgery and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for elderly clinical stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Patients ≥80 years of age with clinical stage I NSCLC between August 2008 and December 2014 were treated either surgery or SBRT. Propensity score matching was performed to reduce bias in various clinicopathological factors. Surgery was performed in 57 cases and SBRT in 41 cases. In the surgery group, the operations included 34 lobectomies and 23 sublobar resections. In the SBRT group, 27 cases were given 48 Gy in 4 fractions, and 14 were given 60 Gy in 10 fractions. Similar characteristics were identified in age (82 years), gender (male:female ratio 2:1), tumor size (2.2 cm), carcinoembryonic antigen (3.6 ng/ml), Charlson comorbidity index (1), Glasgow prognostic scale (0), and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (1.7 L) after matching. Before matching, the 5-year overall survival (OS) in surgery (68.3%) was significantly better than that in SBRT (47.4%, p = 0.02), and the 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) (94.1%, 78.2%, p = 0.17) was not significantly different between the groups. The difference in the 5-year OS became non-significant between the matched pairs (57.0%, 49.1%, p = 0.56). The outcomes of surgery and SBRT for elderly patients with the early stage NSCLC were roughly the same.

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Methods Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. Results 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813–0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725–0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). Conclusions We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients.