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1

Adaptation, extinction and global change  

PubMed Central

We discuss three interlinked issues: the natural pace of environmental change and adaptation, the likelihood that a population will adapt to a potentially lethal change, and adaptation to elevated CO2, the prime mover of global change. Environmental variability is governed by power laws showing that ln difference in conditions increases with ln elapsed time at a rate of 0.3–0.4. This leads to strong but fluctuating selection in many natural populations. The effect of repeated adverse change on mean fitness depends on its frequency rather than its severity. If the depression of mean fitness leads to population decline, however, severe stress may cause extinction. Evolutionary rescue from extinction requires abundant genetic variation or a high mutation supply rate, and thus a large population size. Although natural populations can sustain quite intense selection, they often fail to adapt to anthropogenic stresses such as pollution and acidification and instead become extinct. Experimental selection lines of algae show no specific adaptation to elevated CO2, but instead lose their carbon-concentrating mechanism through mutational degradation. This is likely to reduce the effectiveness of the oceanic carbon pump. Elevated CO2 is also likely to lead to changes in phytoplankton community composition, although it is not yet clear what these will be. We emphasize the importance of experimental evolution in understanding and predicting the biological response to global change. This will be one of the main tasks of evolutionary biologists in the coming decade.

Bell, Graham; Collins, Sinead

2008-01-01

2

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security  

PubMed Central

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

2013-01-01

3

Evolutionary adaptation of marine zooplankton to global change.  

PubMed

Predicting the response of the biota to global change remains a formidable endeavor. Zooplankton face challenges related to global warming, ocean acidification, the proliferation of toxic algal blooms, and increasing pollution, eutrophication, and hypoxia. They can respond to these changes by phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation. Using the concept of the evolution of reaction norms, I address how adaptive responses can be unequivocally discerned from phenotypic plasticity. To date, relatively few zooplankton studies have been designed for such a purpose. As case studies, I review the evidence for zooplankton adaptation to toxic algal blooms, hypoxia, and climate change. Predicting the response of zooplankton to global change requires new information to determine (a) the trade-offs and costs of adaptation, (b) the rates of evolution versus environmental change, (c) the consequences of adaptation to stochastic or cyclic (toxic algal blooms, coastal hypoxia) versus directional (temperature, acidification, open ocean hypoxia) environmental change, and (d) the interaction of selective pressures, and evolutionary and ecological processes, in promoting or hindering adaptation. PMID:22809192

Dam, Hans G

2013-01-01

4

IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION ON SUSTAINABILITY  

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation presents the potential impacts that global climate change may have on the quality and quantity of water available to drinking water and wastewater treatment systems and the adaptations these systems might have to employ in order to remain in regulatory complianc...

5

Evolutionary consequences of simulated global change: genetic adaptation or adaptive phenotypic plasticity  

Microsoft Academic Search

During the next century, natural and agricultural systems might need to adjust to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature. Evolution of genotypes adapted to this global change could play a central role in plants' response. The main purpose of this study was to determine the relative importance of phenotypic and genotypic responses of plants to global

Catherine Potvin; Denise Tousignant

1996-01-01

6

Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this system of systems approach could help the local governments and concerned institutions worldwide to adapt to gradually changing environmental conditions as well as manage impacts of extreme events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, and storm surges.

Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

2011-12-01

7

Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.  

PubMed

In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. PMID:22883209

Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

2012-12-01

8

Least-cost adaptation options for global climate change impacts on the Brazilian electric power system  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power

Andre Frossard Pereira de Lucena; Roberto Schaeffer; Alexandre Salem Szklo

2010-01-01

9

Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application  

Microsoft Academic Search

Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models.

Philip J. Ward; Kenneth M. Strzepek; W. Pieter Pauw; Luke M. Brander; Gordon A. Hughes; Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

2010-01-01

10

Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Water management is facing major challenges due to increasing uncertainties caused by climate and global change and by fast\\u000a changing socio-economic boundary conditions. More attention has to be devoted to understanding and managing the transition\\u000a from current management regimes to more adaptive regimes that take into account environmental, technological, economic, institutional\\u000a and cultural characteristics of river basins. This implies a

Claudia Pahl-Wostl

2007-01-01

11

Local solutions to global problems: the potential of agroforestry for climate change adaptation and mitigation in southern Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is a global phenomenon that imposes economic, social, and ecological challenges to the global community and, to smallholder farmers particularly in low- income countries. Sustainable land use practices offer opportunities for smallholder farmers to adapt to climate change and related risks, but the challenge is that the adoption of such practices by farmers is low due to policy

Ajayi OC; Akinnifesi FK; Sileshi G; Chakeredza S

12

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lnkao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Matthias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

2007-01-01

13

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

2008-01-01

14

Adapting water treatment design and operations to the impacts of global climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and will therefore, potentially, impact the design and operation of current and future water treatment systems. The USEPA has initiated an effort called the Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP) which is intended to develop tools and techniques that can assess the impact of global climate change on urban drinking water and wastewater infrastructure. A three step approach for assessing climate change impacts on water treatment operation and design is being persude in this effort. The first step is the stochastic characterization of source water quality, the second step is the application of the USEPA Water Treatment Plant model and the third step is the application of cost algorithms to provide a metric that can be used to assess the coat impact of climate change. A model has been validated using data collected from Cincinnati's Richard Miller Water Treatment Plant for the USEPA Information Collection Rule (ICR) database. An analysis of the water treatment processes in response to assumed perturbations in raw water quality identified TOC, pH, and bromide as the three most important parameters affecting performance of the Miller WTP. The Miller Plant was simulated using the EPA WTP model to examine the impact of these parameters on selected regulated water quality parameters. Uncertainty in influent water quality was analyzed to estimate the risk of violating drinking water maximum contaminant levels (MCLs).Water quality changes in the Ohio River were projected for 2050 using Monte Carlo simulation and the WTP model was used to evaluate the effects of water quality changes on design and operation. Results indicate that the existing Miller WTP might not meet Safe Drinking Water Act MCL requirements for certain extreme future conditions. However, it was found that the risk of MCL violations under future conditions could be controlled by enhancing existing WTP design and operation or by process retrofitting and modification.

Clark, Robert M.; Li, Zhiwei; Buchberger, Steven G.

2011-12-01

15

Global and Local Concerns: What Attitudes and Beliefs Motivate Farmers to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change?  

PubMed Central

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Haden, Van R.; Niles, Meredith T.; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E.

2012-01-01

16

SAMCO: Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The SAMCO project aims to develop a proactive resilience framework enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks. The project aims to elaborate methodological tools to characterize and measure ecosystem and societal resilience from an operative perspective on three mountain representative case studies. To achieve this objective, the methodology is split in several points with (1) the definition of the potential impacts of global environmental changes (climate system, ecosystem e.g. land use, socio-economic system) on landslide hazards, (2) the analysis of these consequences in terms of vulnerability (e.g. changes in the location and characteristics of the impacted areas and level of their perturbation) and (3) the implementation of a methodology for quantitatively investigating and mapping indicators of mountain slope vulnerability exposed to several hazard types, and the development of a GIS-based demonstration platform. The strength and originality of the SAMCO project will be to combine different techniques, methodologies and models (multi-hazard assessment, risk evolution in time, vulnerability functional analysis, and governance strategies) and to gather various interdisciplinary expertises in earth sciences, environmental sciences, and social sciences. The multidisciplinary background of the members could potentially lead to the development of new concepts and emerging strategies for mountain hazard/risk adaptation. Research areas, characterized by a variety of environmental, economical and social settings, are severely affected by landslides, and have experienced significant land use modifications (reforestation, abandonment of traditional agricultural practices) and human interferences (urban expansion, ski resorts construction) over the last century.

Grandjean, Gilles; Bernardie, Severine; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Puissant, Anne; Houet, Thomas; Berger, Frederic; Fort, Monique; Pierre, Daniel

2013-04-01

17

USEPA?s Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP) ? Drinking Water Research and Global Climate Change  

EPA Science Inventory

The Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP) contributes to EPA?s efforts to provide water resource managers and decision makers with the tools they need to adapt water resources (e.g., watersheds and infrastructure) to future climate change and demographic and economic developme...

18

The Impacts of Global Climate Change in Africa: the Lake Chad, Adaptation and Vulnerability  

Microsoft Academic Search

The ongoing Climate change is affecting the Lake Chad water which sustains the lives of over eight million people that are depending on it mostly pastoral farmers, fishermen, the Kanuri, Mbororo and the Tuareg indigenous communities among others, and adaptation to this natural catastrophe or disaster is further compounding the situation. This research work discovered how the rate of deforestation,

Babagana Abubakar

19

Land system architecture: Using land systems to adapt and mitigate global environmental change  

SciTech Connect

Land systems (mosaics of land use and cover) are human environment systems, the changes in which drive and respond to local to global environmental changes, climate to macro-economy (Foley et al., 2005). Changes in land systems have been the principal proximate cause in the loss of habitats and biota globally, long contributed to atmospheric greenhouse gases, and hypothesized to have triggered climate changes in the early Holocene (Ruddiman, 2003). Land use, foremost agriculture, is the largest source of biologically active nitrogen to the atmosphere, critical to sources and sinks of carbon, and a major component in the hydrologic cycle (e.g., Bouwman et al., 2011). Changes in land systems also affect regional climate (Feddema et al., 2005; Pielke, 2005), ecosystem functions, and the array of ecosystem services they provide. Land systems, therefore, are a central feature of how humankind manages its relationship with nature-intended or not, or whether this relationship proceeds sustainably or not.

Turner, B.L.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Verbug, Peter H.; Murray, Alan T.

2013-04-01

20

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that...

C. Rosenzweig, D. A. Quattrochi, J. Tarr, M. Ruth, P. Kirshen, P. Romero-Lankao, T. J. Wilbanks, W. Solecki

2008-01-01

21

Effects of global change in the Czech Part of the River Elbe Basin and adaptation options  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In Integrated Water Resources Management planning the effects of changing natural conditions (natural water availability) and socio-economic development (water demand) must be taken into consideration. Climate change will influence the water availability. In some sectors, e.g. agricultural irrigation, also the water demand is influenced by climatic conditions. Both, the development of natural water availability and water demand, are connected with certain levels of uncertainty. Therefore, scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change are required for Integrated Water Resources Management planning. The river Elbe basin (catchment area approximately 150,000 km²) is located in central Europe. The river Elbe basin is a trans boundary river basin. One third is located in the Czech Republic upstream of Germany, where two thirds of the basin is located. Therefore, inflows from the Czech part are important for instance for navigation in the German part. For navigation an inflow to Germany of 100 m3/s is required. Due to climate change the inflows are expected to decline. In the project GLOWA-Elbe a water management model for the whole river Elbe basin was developed. The model for the Czech part includes among others 52 reservoirs, 20 thermoelectric power plants, 70 hydroelectric power plants, 30 industrial users, 15 agricultural irrigation users, 40 public water utilities, and 160 waste water treatment plants. Two global socio-economic trends are renationalized and used in the simulations. Renationalized climate data are used to simulate the effects of climate change on natural discharges. Using the water management model the effects of global change on inflows from the Czech Republic to Germany are simulated. Using this model is it analyzed, if reservoir management in the Czech part can sustain a required inflow of 100 m3/s to Germany.

Koch, Hagen; Kaltofen, Michael; Kaden, Stefan; Grünewald, Uwe

2010-05-01

22

Development of a natural practice to adapt conservation goals to global change.  

PubMed

Conservation goals at the start of the 21st century reflect a combination of contrasting ideas. Ideal nature is something that is historically intact but also futuristically flexible. Ideal nature is independent from humans, but also, because of the pervasiveness of human impacts, only able to reach expression through human management. These tensions emerge in current management rationales because scientists and managers are struggling to accommodate old and new scientific and cultural thinking, while also maintaining legal mandates from the past and commitments to preservation of individual species in particular places under the stresses of global change. Common management goals (such as integrity, wilderness, resilience), whether they are forward looking and focused on sustainability and change, or backward looking and focused on the persistence and restoration of historic states, tend to create essentialisms about how ecosystems should be. These essentialisms limit the options of managers to accommodate the dynamic, and often novel, response of ecosystems to global change. Essentialisms emerge because there is a tight conceptual coupling of place and historical species composition as an indicator of naturalness (e.g., normal, healthy, independent from humans). Given that change is increasingly the norm and ecosystems evolve in response, the focus on idealized ecosystem states is increasingly unwise and unattainable. To provide more open-ended goals, we propose greater attention be paid to the characteristics of management intervention. We suggest that the way we interact with other species in management and the extent to which those interactions reflect the interactions among other biotic organisms, and also reflect our conservation virtues (e.g., humility, respect), influences our ability to cultivate naturalness on the landscape. We call this goal a natural practice (NP) and propose it as a framework for prioritizing and formulating how, when, and where to intervene in this period of rapid change. PMID:24617971

Heller, Nicole E; Hobbs, Richard J

2014-06-01

23

Vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change: The Estonian national report  

SciTech Connect

Because of its geography, wide coastal areas, water resources, forests, and wetlands, the environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. Therefore, the vulnerability and adaptation assessment focused on these sectors GCM-based and incremental climate change scenarios are used for V and A assessment in Estonia. The results of five GCMs provided by NCAR are available, and four of them (GISS, CCCM, GFDL30, GFDL transient) are chosen for the assessment in Estonia. The CERES-Barley model is used to assess crop productivity in four long-term (1966--1987) barley field trials situated on different types of soils in different parts of Estonia. The SPUR-2 model which was expected to be used to assess herbage sensitivity to climate change doesn`t fit Estonia. To estimate the responses of forests to proposed climate change scenarios, five study sites with relatively species rich forest stands and with different types of climate (continental and moderately maritime) are selected and the simple version of the Forest Gap Model is used. The Holdridge Life Zones Classification Models are also used to determine the potential evapotranspiration ratio for different tree species and the multiplier for temperature as a function of the forest growth. The WatBal model is used in water resources vulnerability assessment for three rivers with different hydrological regimes and landscape conditions.

Kont, A.; Punning, J.M. [Inst. of Ecology, Tallinn (Estonia); Ainsaar, M. [Univ. of Tartu (Estonia)] [and others

1996-04-01

24

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Lsr2 Is a Global Transcriptional Regulator Required for Adaptation to Changing Oxygen Levels and Virulence  

PubMed Central

ABSTRACT To survive a dynamic host environment, Mycobacterium tuberculosis must endure a series of challenges, from reactive oxygen and nitrogen stress to drastic shifts in oxygen availability. The mycobacterial Lsr2 protein has been implicated in reactive oxygen defense via direct protection of DNA. To examine the role of Lsr2 in pathogenesis and physiology of M. tuberculosis, we generated a strain deleted for lsr2. Analysis of the M. tuberculosis ?lsr2 strain demonstrated that Lsr2 is not required for DNA protection, as this strain was equally susceptible as the wild type to DNA-damaging agents. The lsr2 mutant did display severe growth defects under normoxic and hyperoxic conditions, but it was not required for growth under low-oxygen conditions. However, it was also required for adaptation to anaerobiosis. The defect in anaerobic adaptation led to a marked decrease in viability during anaerobiosis, as well as a lag in recovery from it. Gene expression profiling of the ?lsr2 mutant under aerobic and anaerobic conditions in conjunction with published DNA binding-site data indicates that Lsr2 is a global transcriptional regulator controlling adaptation to changing oxygen levels. The ?lsr2 strain was capable of establishing an early infection in the BALB/c mouse model; however, it was severely defective in persisting in the lungs and caused no discernible lung pathology. These findings demonstrate M. tuberculosis Lsr2 is a global transcriptional regulator required for control of genes involved in adaptation to extremes in oxygen availability and is required for persistent infection.

Bartek, I. L.; Woolhiser, L. K.; Baughn, A. D.; Basaraba, R. J.; Jacobs, W. R.; Lenaerts, A. J.

2014-01-01

25

Reconciling National and Global Priorities in Adaptation to Climate Change: With an Illustration from Uganda  

Microsoft Academic Search

Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions

Bwango Apuuli; J. Wright; C. Elias; I. Burton

2000-01-01

26

Ask Dr. Global Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Users of this resource may direct questions about global change to staff members at the U.S. Global Change Research Information Office (GCIRO). An archive of previous questions and answers is provided, along with links to other global change sites.

27

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide  

PubMed Central

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO2 to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO2 and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO2 responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.

Ziska, Lewis H.; Bunce, James A.; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R.; Baker, Jeffrey T.; Newton, Paul C. D.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Jagadish, Krishna S. V.; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T.

2012-01-01

28

Designing Global Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

2012-12-01

29

Global climate change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

Levine, Joel S.

1991-01-01

30

Global Climate Change Exploratorium  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site, funded by NSF, is the home page for the Global Climate Change research explorer. Multicolor tabs at the top of the page link to further information and visualizations (graphs, charts, pictures, etc.) for climate change resources in each of the Earth's spheres, including: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and global effects of climate change.

Exploratorium, The

31

Global Change Project  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Global Change Project is an undergraduate program at the University of Michigan. It is a three course interdisciplinary sequence focusing on Physical Processes, Human Impacts, and Case Studies. These courses form the core of a Global Change Academic Minor for students who want to understand the historical and modern aspects of global change. Resources in the courses include lectures, labs, course syllabi, movie clips, a formative assessment instrument for the class, references, links to related sites, and access to the Global Change Digital Library.

32

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite-observed night lights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and periurban stations for nonclimatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global

J. Hansen; R. Ruedy; M. Sato; K. Lo

2010-01-01

33

Global changes in protein synthesis during adaptation of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to 0.7 M NaCl.  

PubMed Central

Exponentially growing Saccharomyces cerevisiae was challenged to increased salinity by transfer to 0.7 M NaCl medium, and changes in protein synthesis were examined during the 1st h of adaptation by use of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis coupled to computerized quantification. An impressive number of proteins displayed changes in the relative rate of synthesis, with most differences from nonstressed cells being found at between 20 and 40 min. During this period, 18 proteins exhibited more than eightfold increases in their rates of synthesis and were classified as highly NaCl responsive. Only two proteins were repressed to the same level. Most of these highly NaCl-responsive proteins seemed to constitute gene products not earlier reported to respond to dehydration. Applying a selection criterion to subsequent samples of a twofold change in the relative rate of synthesis, 14 different regulatory patterns were discerned. Most identified glycolytic enzymes exhibited a delayed response, and their rates of synthesis did not change until the middle phase of adaptation, with only a minor decrease in the rate of production. A slight salt-stimulated response was observed for some members of the HSP70 gene family. Overall, the data presented indicate complex intracellular signalling as well as involvement of diverse regulatory mechanisms during the period of adaptation to NaCl.

Blomberg, A

1995-01-01

34

Global Surface Temperature Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite-observed nightlights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and peri-urban stations for non-climatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change

J. Hansen; R. Ruedy; M. Sato

35

Global Change Observation Mission  

Microsoft Academic Search

12 Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM) is a follow on mission of ADEOS and ADEOS2. It is under phase A study in NASDA (National Space Development Agency of Japan). GCOM is not a series of satellites but a mission and its concept is to continuously monitor geophysical parameters which are critical to understand global change phenomena, especially phenomena related to

Haruhisa Shimoda

2001-01-01

36

Global Change Primer  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This introductory chapter for educators provides background information to support classroom investigations of global climate change. Topics addressed include the structure and composition of the atmosphere, General Circulation Models (GCMs), 2xCO2 scenarios, uncertainty, and human impacts. The primer is part of the Ground Truth Studies Teacher Handbook, which provides more than 20 activities to build student understanding of global change and remote sensing, and includes background chapters for teachers, glossary, and appendices.

37

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

1991-01-01

38

Global Surface Temperature Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite-observed night lights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and periurban stations for nonclimatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change are small. Because the GISS analysis combines available sea surface temperature records with meteorological station measurements, we test alternative choices for the ocean data, showing that global temperature change is sensitive to estimated temperature change in polar regions where observations are limited. We use simple 12 month (and n × 12) running means to improve the information content in our temperature graphs. Contrary to a popular misconception, the rate of warming has not declined. Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior 2 decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global 12 month running mean temperature for the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010.

Hansen, J.; Ruedy, R.; Sato, M.; Lo, K.

2010-12-01

39

Global temperature change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global surface temperature has increased 0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West-East temperature gradient

James Hansen; Makiko Sato; Reto Ruedy; Ken Lo; David W. Lea; Martin Medina-Elizade

2006-01-01

40

Global Change Master Directory  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

NASA's Global Change Master Directory Web site provides descriptions and access to earth science data sets and services relevant to global change research. These include data sets covering agriculture, the atmosphere, the biosphere, the hydrosphere and oceans, snow and ice, geology and geophysics, paleoclimatology, and human dimensions of global change. Users can search or browse by topic to locate specific lists of data sets that are accompanied by a summary of that data, a description of its source including contact information, spatial and temporal descriptions, and additional links. The unique and simple interface of the database does a good job of providing an easy way to locate and judge the relevancy of the data that's available.

41

Global Climate Change: Atmosphere  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site explains how climate change affects everything from stratospheric temperatures to the golden toad of Costa Rica. Graphs, articles, and maps monitor humankind's impact on the planet. The site features five thumbnails including two maps showing Global Outgoing Longwave Heat Radiation, and Global Reflected Shortwave Solar Radiation and three graphs entitled Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Records from Mauna Loa, Hawaii (1958 - 2000), Global Average Near-Surface Temperatures - Monthly Anomalies (1961 - 2002), and Global Stratospheric and Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies (1979 - 2001). Each of these provides a link to a larger version of the visual and a detailed explanation. Each section has links to a glossary as well as links to questions about each section and additional references.

42

Global temperature change  

PubMed Central

Global surface temperature has increased ?0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ?1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ?1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

43

Introduction to Global Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site from the University of Michigan is the homepage for an interdisciplinary three semester introductory course sequence that investigates the causes and potential impacts of global change. The curriculum is tailored to beginning student and includes three course; physical processes, human impacts, and sustainability studies. The site includes lecture notes, syllabi, and lab exercises.

Van Der Pluijm, Ben; Samson, Perry; Kling, George; Allan, Dave; Michigan, University O.

44

Global Environmental Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Global Environmental Change (GEC) posts three reports summarizing the findings of an Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) initiative, running from 1991 to 2000 whose original objective "was to bring social science expertise to bear on global environmental research and, at the same time, to take environmental concerns to the heart of the social sciences." The three reports focus on environmental decisionmaking, global governance, and sustainable production and consumption. Together, they constitute an unusually sustained and thoughtful consideration of how to make environmental decisions more thoughtfully and in line with consistent values and criteria. The reports are accessed through individual tables of contents that include a report summary and sidebar features for more detailed background on certain issues. In addition to these three main reports, the site features other documents, workshop and conference information, and research updates related to the GEC project.

45

Ecological effects of global change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankind actually puts manifolds loads on our earth including stratospheric ozone depletion, rising freshwater use, changes of land cover and land use. For several of these threats, critical loads and thresholds may be already exceeded, e.g. nitrogen input, climate change and biodiversity loss (Röckström et al. 2009). The working group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the last IPCC report (AR4, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, thus global fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change was detectable on all continents and almost all ocean areas (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). 90% of the significant temperature related changes in 29000 records analysed were consistent with climate warming, e.g. in warming climates earlier spring events, distributional shifts pole wards and to higher altitudes, or community changes with reduced cold adapted species were observed. These impacts, already visible and only related to less than 1°C global warming, allow a limited glance at future changes and pressures on our ecosystems, as the rate of warming may accelerate and will be linked to stronger and more frequent extreme events. Vegetation is an important component of the climate system, part of biogeochemical cycles and the lower boundary of GCMs characterised by certain albedo and roughness. Thus, climate change impacts on vegetation exert feedbacks. The most striking and challenging problems in analysing climate change impacts on ecosystems are related to cases where one would expect major changes due to warming however there is reduced, limited or no reaction in the observed systems. This feature is known as divergence problem in tree ring research, called resilience in ecosystem dynamics or might be simply a time-lag or environmental monitoring problem. However, there are various other pressures by global change, e.g. land use change or pollution, leading to major changes in nature, which are not attributable to climate change and are dealt in these climate change impact assessments as ‘confounding factors’. Nevertheless, they have tremendous consequences for biodiversity, food security and human health.

Menzel, A.

2010-03-01

46

Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Global Climate Change is one of the Exploring the Environment series of online modules. Emphasizing an integrated approach to environmental earth science through problem-based learning, this module asks students to predict how increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is changing the climate, and the possible effects this may have on Kansas wheat crops. Students access remote sensing data via links to both current and historical data and work through a sequence of hyperlinked background resources to investigate this problem. The site also offers a glossary, teacher resources, and a general description of the problem-based learning model.

2000-01-01

47

Fair adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries

Jouni Paavola; W. Neil Adger

2006-01-01

48

US Global Change Research Information Office: Ask Dr. Global Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

If you're interested in finding information on global change, then the Ask Dr. Global Change Web site is for you. Provided by the US Global Change Research Information Office, the site gives visitors the chance to review and search dozens of questions and related answers to various global warming questions. Example questions include What is Global Warming and What is the Greenhouse Effect. It also allows visitors to submit question of their own and explore other provided links.

2002-01-01

49

Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

Armstrong, Jennifer

2014-05-01

50

Global temperature change.  

PubMed

Global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West-East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within approximately 1 degrees C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than approximately 1 degrees C, relative to 2000, will constitute "dangerous" climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-09-26

51

Global Environmental Change Symposium  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The global environmental warming issue has been catapulted to the forefront of media attention as a result of the drought of 1988 and extremely warm temperatures. NASA scientist James Hansen testified last year that the warming trend has begun and that part of the temperature rise is due to gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluro-carbons (CFCs) being released into the atmosphere by human activity.In response to recent scientific speculation on the issue, the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., hosted the symposium Global Environmental Change April 24 as part of their annual meeting. Speakers included Bert Bolin, University of Stockholm; Robert White, National Academy of Engineering; Stephen Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Research; and Peter Raven, Missouri Botanical Garden. Moderator was Russell Train, World Wildlife Fund.

Bush, Susan M.

52

Global change and mercury  

USGS Publications Warehouse

More than 140 nations recently agreed to a legally binding treaty on reductions in human uses and releases of mercury that will be signed in October of this year. This follows the 2011 rule in the United States that for the first time regulates mercury emissions from electricity-generating utilities. Several decades of scientific research preceded these important regulations. However, the impacts of global change on environmental mercury concentrations and human exposures remain a major uncertainty affecting the potential effectiveness of regulatory activities.

Krabbenhoft, David P.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

2013-01-01

53

Global Environmental Change: Biodiversity  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This book uses Costa Rica as a case study because the country's tropical forests contain four percent of Earth's total biological species diversity. Biodiversity's activities and readings help students explore efforts to balance economic expansion with resource conservation. This resource has activities to explore local biodiversity and true-to-life role-playing scenarios, so students can apply what they have learned. Biodiversity is one of four books in NSTA Press's Global Environmental Change series, a joint project of NSTA Press and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The other books in the series are Deforestation, Carrying Capacity, and Introduced Species.

Agency, Environmental P.; Press, Nsta

1997-01-01

54

Amazonia and Global Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Large-Scale Biosphere¬Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multidisciplinary international scientific project that seeks to understand the functioning of Amazonia as a unique ecosystem. The AGU monograph Amazonia and Global Change, edited by Michael Keller, Mercedes Bustamante, John Gash, and Pedro Silva Dias, synthesizes the results of the study. In this interview, Eos talks with micrometeorologist John Gash, who specializes in measuring and modeling evaporation from forests. He is a senior researcher in the Department of Hydrology and Geo-environmental Sciences at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and an honorary research fellow at the U.K. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

Ofori, Leslie

2010-09-01

55

Pure adaptive search for finite global optimization  

Microsoft Academic Search

Pure Adaptive Search is a stochastic algorithm which has been analyzed for continuous global optimization. When a unifonn distribution is used in PAS. it has been shown to have complexity which is linear in dimension. We define strong and weak variations of PAS in the setting of finite global optimization and prove analogous results. In particular, for the n-dimensional lattice

Zelda B. Zabinsky; G. R. Wood; Mike A. Steel; William Baritompa

1995-01-01

56

Adapting agriculture to climate change  

PubMed Central

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

2007-01-01

57

Efficient Adaptation to Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Firms and individuals will likelyengage in substantial private adaptation with respectto climate change in such sectors as farming, energy,timber, and recreation because it is in their interestto do so. The shared benefit nature of jointadaptation, however, will cause individuals tounderprovide joint adaptation in such areas as watercontrol, sea walls, and ecological management. Governments need to start thinking about jointadaptation, being

Robert Mendelsohn

2000-01-01

58

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in California. Staff Paper.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This paper presents a short review of the existing literature on climate change impacts and adaptation options for California. At the global scale, there is a scientific consensus that climate is changing and that the increased concentration of greenhouse...

G. Franco

2005-01-01

59

FY 2002 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

PRA Goal 6: Reducing Global and Transboundary Environmental Risks Objective 6.2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sub-Objective 6.2.3: Global Climate Change Research Activity F55 - Assessing the Consequences of Global Change on Ecosystem Health NRMRL R...

60

Global change education: Why teach about global change issues?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global change issues should be a part of education because, as noted in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 definition, {open_quotes}change in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems){hor_ellipsis} may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life.{close_quotes}And, according to the National Science Foundation`s Dr. Robert

L. M. Carter; G. A. Scowcroft

1995-01-01

61

Bibliography of global change, 1992  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

This bibliography lists 585 reports, articles, and other documents introduced in the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database in 1992. The areas covered include global change, decision making, earth observation (from space), forecasting, global warming, policies, and trends.

1993-01-01

62

Earth rotation and global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Investigations of global change require information from different fields of geo-sciences. Since global change is accompanied by mass redistribution in the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, and the cryosphere influences on the Earth's rotation can be expected. Studies of relations between climate change and Earth rotation proved a statistical correlation between the variation of different climate parameters and the length of day.

H. Jochmann

1993-01-01

63

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary  

Microsoft Academic Search

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by

N. Bhatti; R. R. Cirillo; R. K. Dixon

1995-01-01

64

Dialogue on Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is a summary of a 2 day seminar on the topic "Dialogue on Global Climate Change." The sessions on October 1 included a scientific overview of global climate change, a discussion on religious perspectives on global climate change, and consideration of impacts and equity. The sessions on October 2 focused on policy considerations and the Kyoto Convention on Climate Change. Panelists discussed economic challenges in responding to climate change, reviewed the Kyoto convention and its political prospects, and examined the roles of science, religion, values, and economics in crafting public policy on climate change.

;

2007-06-28

65

Global atmospheric changes.  

PubMed

Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation. PMID:1820255

Piver, W T

1991-12-01

66

Global atmospheric changes.  

PubMed Central

Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation.

Piver, W T

1991-01-01

67

Global Climate Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

Hall, Dorothy K.

1989-01-01

68

Learning to Adapt: Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts  

Microsoft Academic Search

Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that

Frans Berkhout; Julia Hertin; David M. Gann

2006-01-01

69

Solar influences on global change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monitoring of the Sun and the Earth has yielded new knowledge essential to this debate. There is now no doubt that the total radiative energy from the Sun that heats the Earth's surface changes over decadal time scales as a consequence of solar activity. Observations indicate as well that changes in ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles from the Sun, also connected with the solar activity, modulate the layer of ozone that protects the biosphere from the solar ultraviolet radiation. This report reassesses solar influences on global change in the light of this new knowledge of solar and atmospheric variability. Moreover, the report considers climate change to be encompassed within the broader concept of global change; thus the biosphere is recognized to be part of a larger, coupled Earth system. Implementing a program to continuously monitor solar irradiance over the next several decades will provide the opportunity to estimate solar influences on global change, assuming continued maintenance of observations of climate and other potential forcing mechanisms. In the lower atmosphere, an increase in solar radiation is expected to cause global warming. In the stratosphere, however, the two effects produce temperature changes of opposite sign. A monitoring program that would augment long term observations of tropospheric parameters with similar observations of stratospheric parameters could separate these diverse climate perturbations and perhaps isolate a greenhouse footprint of climate change. Monitoring global change in the troposphere is a key element of all facets of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), not just of the study of solar influences on global change. The need for monitoring the stratosphere is also important for global change research in its own right because of the stratospheric ozone layer.

1994-01-01

70

Global network reorganization during dynamic adaptations of Bacillus subtilis metabolism.  

PubMed

Adaptation of cells to environmental changes requires dynamic interactions between metabolic and regulatory networks, but studies typically address only one or a few layers of regulation. For nutritional shifts between two preferred carbon sources of Bacillus subtilis, we combined statistical and model-based data analyses of dynamic transcript, protein, and metabolite abundances and promoter activities. Adaptation to malate was rapid and primarily controlled posttranscriptionally compared with the slow, mainly transcriptionally controlled adaptation to glucose that entailed nearly half of the known transcription regulation network. Interactions across multiple levels of regulation were involved in adaptive changes that could also be achieved by controlling single genes. Our analysis suggests that global trade-offs and evolutionary constraints provide incentives to favor complex control programs. PMID:22383848

Buescher, Joerg Martin; Liebermeister, Wolfram; Jules, Matthieu; Uhr, Markus; Muntel, Jan; Botella, Eric; Hessling, Bernd; Kleijn, Roelco Jacobus; Le Chat, Ludovic; Lecointe, François; Mäder, Ulrike; Nicolas, Pierre; Piersma, Sjouke; Rügheimer, Frank; Becher, Dörte; Bessieres, Philippe; Bidnenko, Elena; Denham, Emma L; Dervyn, Etienne; Devine, Kevin M; Doherty, Geoff; Drulhe, Samuel; Felicori, Liza; Fogg, Mark J; Goelzer, Anne; Hansen, Annette; Harwood, Colin R; Hecker, Michael; Hubner, Sebastian; Hultschig, Claus; Jarmer, Hanne; Klipp, Edda; Leduc, Aurélie; Lewis, Peter; Molina, Frank; Noirot, Philippe; Peres, Sabine; Pigeonneau, Nathalie; Pohl, Susanne; Rasmussen, Simon; Rinn, Bernd; Schaffer, Marc; Schnidder, Julian; Schwikowski, Benno; Van Dijl, Jan Maarten; Veiga, Patrick; Walsh, Sean; Wilkinson, Anthony J; Stelling, Jörg; Aymerich, Stéphane; Sauer, Uwe

2012-03-01

71

Science priorities for the human dimensions of global change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The topics covered include the following: defining research needs; understanding land use change; improving policy analysis -- research on the decision-making process; designing policy instruments and institutions to address energy-related environmental problems; assessing impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to global changes; and understanding population dynamics and global change.

1994-01-01

72

Space sensors for global change  

SciTech Connect

Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

Canavan, G.H.

1994-02-15

73

Global Climatic Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed.

Richard A. Houghton; George M. Woodwell

1989-01-01

74

Changing Global Circumpolar Vortex  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Observations and projections of the circumpolar vortex (CV) in both hemispheres are examined in the context of climate change. Long-term (1951~2100) maps and statistics of daily/monthly CV size, perimeter and circularity ratio (CR) are produced from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I (1951~present) and IPCC CMIP5 (present~2100) modeled 500hPa pressure data sets using Geographic Information System (GIS) methods. Analyses of daily/monthly data show that the size and perimeter of the Northern Hemisphere CV have shrunk, particularly in spring and summer, while pattern changes are not seen around the Antarctica. No obvious change in the CR of the CV in either hemisphere indicates that abnormal temperature events such as cold surges in winter and heat waves in summer around circumpolar regions still occur periodically in the recent warmer climate. Pattern changes observed in the Northern Hemisphere may be associated with the complexity of the land-ocean distribution and Arctic cryospheric feedbacks (e.g. the reduction of albedo due to melting Arctic sea ice and reduced continental snow cover). The absence of notable changes in the Southern Hemisphere may be due to less atmosphere warming or cryospheric changes over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Projected future CV characteristics will also be discussed in detail. Keywords: circumpolar vortex, cryospheric feedbacks, climate change, Geographic Information System (GIS)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2013-12-01

75

Global Climatic Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

1989-01-01

76

Agencies confer on global change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Organization of a national forum and the development of a scientific plan for studies on global change are among the initiatives that the U.S. Committee on Global Change (CGC) is considering as a way of focusing U.S. efforts to assess anthropogenic changes in the global environment. The committee, which met for the first time at the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) on June 11—12, 1987, set out to determine the status of various national and international programs. The meeting also enabled the National Science Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agency representatives to describe their past efforts and future plans and commitments toward a national global change program. Scientific organizations such as AGU and the Smithsonian Institution will probably be invited to take part in such a national forum and in the development of the scientific plan.

Sackett, Bill

77

Global climatic change  

SciTech Connect

This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

1989-04-01

78

Boreal forests and global change  

SciTech Connect

This book presents a group of papers to provide some answers for the development of policies for management and conservation of global boreal forest resources in the face of global climatic change. Five categories are covered: governmental and policy issues in forest management; modeling investigations of ecosystem response to global change, regional carbon inventories and inventory methodology, observational studies of biogeochemistry and ecophysiology, and major scientific initiatives relating to boreal forests. papers include the first-peer reviewed publications in the western scientific literature from Russian scientists on the status of Russian boreal forests. The book serves as a good reference and outline, with useful examples from primary literature.

Apps, M.J.; Price, D.T.; Wisniewski [eds.

1995-12-31

79

Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)  

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

80

U.S. Global Change Research Information Office  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

"The US Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO) provides access to data and information on climate change research, adaptation/mitigation strategies, and technologies, and global change-related educational resources." Users can learn about GCRIOâÂÂs success in predicting El Niño and La Niña events, reducing the uncertainty of rainfall events in the tropics, creating maps to record the uptake of carbon by the ocean, and more. Researchers, students, and educators can find help locating information and data about global environmental change by visiting Doctor Global Change. The website features upcoming climate-related events hosted across the United States.

81

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient  

PubMed Central

All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

Kates, Robert W.; Travis, William R.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

82

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.  

PubMed

All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations. PMID:22509036

Kates, Robert W; Travis, William R; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2012-05-01

83

Global Climate Change Interaction Web.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

Fortner, Rosanne W.

1998-01-01

84

Ice cores and global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

For scientists interested in global change problems, ice core records provide a unique and invaluable medium for studying the past. These records yield both direct and proxy links to the paleoenvironment over periods potentially as long as hundreds of thousands of years with resolution down to seasonal scale for time-series on the order of hundreds to thousands of years. In

Paul A. Mayewski

1988-01-01

85

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary  

SciTech Connect

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

1995-12-31

86

Climate change impacts on global food security.  

PubMed

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security. PMID:23908229

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-01

87

Global flood risk under climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A warmer climate would increase the risk of floods. So far, only a few studies have projected changes in floods on a global scale. None of these studies relied on multiple climate models. A few global studies have started to estimate the exposure to flooding (population in potential inundation areas) as a proxy of risk, but none of them has estimated it in a warmer future climate. Here we present global flood risk for the end of this century based on the outputs of 11 climate models. A state-of-the-art global river routing model with an inundation scheme was employed to compute river discharge and inundation area. An ensemble of projections under a new high-concentration scenario demonstrates a large increase in flood frequency in Southeast Asia, Peninsular India, eastern Africa and the northern half of the Andes, with small uncertainty in the direction of change. In certain areas of the world, however, flood frequency is projected to decrease. Another larger ensemble of projections under four new concentration scenarios reveals that the global exposure to floods would increase depending on the degree of warming, but interannual variability of the exposure may imply the necessity of adaptation before significant warming.

Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Mahendran, Roobavannan; Koirala, Sujan; Konoshima, Lisako; Yamazaki, Dai; Watanabe, Satoshi; Kim, Hyungjun; Kanae, Shinjiro

2013-09-01

88

GLOBAL CHANGE MULTI-YEAR PLAN  

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 establishes the U.S. Global Change Research Program to coordinate a comprehensive research program on global change. This is an inter-Agency effort, with EPA bearing responsibility to assess the consequences of global change on human health,...

89

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region's attitude towards climate change science, policy, and the stances taken by other regions on climate change. The professor will provide a model of integrative research using the U.S. as a focus, and on discussion days, prompt a sort of United Nations discussion on each of these topics with the intention of having the students look at climate change from a different point of view that contrasts their current U.S.-centric view, as well as realize the interdependence of regions particularly in regards to climate change.

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

90

Fisheries and Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

When populations of harvestable fish start to decline, managers look for explanations of the changes throughout the Earth system. In this activity, the impact of global climate change on marine and Great Lakes fish is considered. First, decline in the striped bass population of the North Atlantic, noted in the Downeaster Alexa song by Billy Joel, is examined with spreadsheet analysis and on-line searches of National Marine Fisheries Service databases. In a second investigation, ArcView generates a model of the Lake Erie depths that could be associated with global climate change (shallower water). Students identify fish species that use nearshore shallows for spawning and nursery areas, and speculate on the impact of the lower water. In both activities, the thermal niche of the species is considered as a factor in where fish populations may migrate with new climate regimes.

Fortner, Rosanne; Merry, Carolyn

2002-07-31

91

Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace.

Bo Lim; Erika Spanger-Siegfried; Ian Burton; Eizabeth Malone; Saleemul Huq

2004-01-01

92

Setting priorities for adapting to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

It is not likely that efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions will completely eliminate the risk of climate change. Thus, policymakers will eventually have to address adaptation to the effects of climate change. Given the uncertainties about the timing, direction, and magnitude of regional climate change, it might seem preferable to postpone adaptive measures until after climate changes. Yet, this

Joel B Smith

1997-01-01

93

Congress scrutinizes Global Change Program  

Microsoft Academic Search

Funding for NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's parts in the interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program was the focus of the House Space Subcommittee's March 30 hearing. The subcommittee authorizes spending for the two agencies, which together account for nearly 75% of the $1.3 billion of the total funding for the GCRP.The subcommittee was looking for the

Susan Bush

1993-01-01

94

Policy and global change research  

Microsoft Academic Search

The history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program calls into question its sustainability. The Program was established on the presumption that a prerequisite for rational, comprehensive, and cost-effective policy responses is the reduction of scientific uncertainty through comprehensive predictive models. This presumption remains a significant barrier to the renewal of public support for the Program through near-term progress consistent

Ronald D. Brunner

1996-01-01

95

Earth's Climate and Global Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

With three levels to choose from on each page - beginner, intermediate or advanced - this site provides information on the way climate affects our world. Global climate, regional climate, and climate change are all explained. There is an important section on what controls climate change, like the sun, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, snow, and ice. there is a module called Energy Choices and Climate Change that provides a new way to look at issues related to energy and climate change. In the scenarios within this module, you will be able to make decisions about the types and amount of energy used and see what effect your decisions have on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere. Your goal is to reduce the amount of warming greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere from fossil fuel emissions while keeping costs within reason.

2004-05-11

96

Line Orientation Adaptation: Local or Global?  

PubMed Central

Prolonged exposure to an oriented line shifts the perceived orientation of a subsequently observed line in the opposite direction, a phenomenon known as the tilt aftereffect (TAE). Here we consider whether the TAE for line stimuli is mediated by a mechanism that integrates the local parts of the line into a single global entity prior to the site of adaptation, or the result of the sum of local TAEs acting separately on the parts of the line. To test between these two alternatives we used the fact the TAE transfers almost completely across luminance contrast polarity [1]. We measured the TAE using adaptor and test lines that (1) either alternated in luminance polarity or were of a single polarity, and (2) either alternated in local orientation or were of a single orientation. We reasoned that if the TAE was agnostic to luminance polarity and was parts-based, we should obtain large TAEs using alternating-polarity adaptors with single-polarity tests. However we found that (i) TAEs using one-alternating-polarity adaptors with all-white tests were relatively small, increased slightly for two-alternating-polarity adaptors, and were largest with all-white or all-black adaptors. (ii) however TAEs were relatively large when the test was one-alternating polarity, irrespective of the adaptor type. (iii) The results with orientation closely mirrored those obtained with polarity with the difference that the TAE transfer across orthogonal orientations was weak. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the TAE for lines is mediated by a global shape mechanism that integrates the parts of lines into whole prior to the site of orientation adaptation. The asymmetry in the magnitude of TAE depending on whether the alternating-polarity lines was the adaptor or test can be explained by an imbalance in the population of neurons sensitive to 1st-and 2nd-order lines, with the 2nd-order lines being encoded by a subset of the mechanisms sensitive to 1st-order lines.

Gheorghiu, Elena; Bell, Jason; Kingdom, Frederick A. A.

2013-01-01

97

Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace. The development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is intended to help provide the rapidly evolving process of adaptation policy-making with a much-needed roadmap. Ultimately, the purpose of the APF is to support adaptation processes to protect - and enhance - human well-being in the face of climate change. This volume will be invaluable for everyone working on climate change adaptation and policy-making.

Lim, Bo; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika; Burton, Ian; Malone, Eizabeth; Huq, Saleemul

2004-11-01

98

Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. However, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and

David L. Spittlehouse

2005-01-01

99

Economics, institutions and adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation to the consequences of climate change has attracted increasing interest as a necessary complement to greenhouse gas mitigation. Economic approaches to climate adaptation are rarely articulated and discussed explicitly despite many benefits of such a framework-level discourse. Therefore, this article investigates how climate adaptation is framed and approached in economics and attempts to contribute to the development of economic

Christoph Oberlack; Bernhard Neumärker

2011-01-01

100

Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

2013-02-01

101

Global Environmental Change: Carrying Capacity  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Carrying Capacity addresses the ability of the Earth to sustain healthy populations of different species. Earth's human population, now past six billion, is expected to reach 10 billion by 2030. This growth will place an even greater strain on the planet's carrying capacity. With your school as a case study, link small-scale biology, ecology, and Earth science to the big picture. Carrying Capacity is one of four books in NSTA Press's Global Environmental Change series, a joint project of NSTA Press and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The other books in the series are Deforestation, Biodiversity, and Introduced Species.

Agency, Environmental P.; Press, Nsta

1997-01-01

102

Remote sensing of global change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remote sensing instruments for monitoring global changes are examined. The use of the earth observing system, a set of instrument platforms in polar, sun-synchoronous orbit that provide coverage of the entire globe, is discussed. The radar and imaging spectrometers utilized to obtain surface measurements are described. Atmospheric data is collected by the atmospheric IR sounder, the tropospheric emission spectrometer, and the stratospheric wind IR limb sounder. Consideration is given to the operation of the microwave limb sounder, the active cavity radiometer, and the TDRSS.

Allen, Lew

1989-01-01

103

GEOSCOPE: An Interactive Global Change Encyclopedia.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

An interactive global change encyclopedia (GEOSCOPE), portraying the contribution that remote sensing from space can make to the monitoring of global environmental change on Earth, is being produced for the International Space Year (ISY) in 1992. The data...

R. Simard

1992-01-01

104

Climate Change Adaptation as a Social Process  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Research on the impacts of climate change suggests that developed countries are not immune to the effects of a changing climate.\\u000a The assumption that because of their high adaptive capacity, developed countries will adapt effectively is beginning to be\\u000a dispelled by empirical evidence. While advancements in projections have facilitated a move from the study of impacts to concrete\\u000a adaptation strategies,

Johanna Wolf

105

EMS adaptation for climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The purpose of this study was to find an appropriate scenario of pre-hospital transportation of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. A case of natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, 88 wind-caused disasters, was reviewed and analyzed. A sequential-conveyance method was designed to shorten the casualty transportation time and to promote the efficiency of ambulance services. A proposed mobile emergency medical center was first constructed in a safe area, but nearby the disaster area. The Center consists of professional medical personnel who process the triage of incoming patients and take care of casualties with minor injuries. Ambulances in the Center were ready to sequentially convey the casualties with severer conditions to an assigned hospital that is distant from the disaster area for further treatment. The study suggests that if we could construct a spacious and well-equipped mobile emergency medical center, only a small portion of casualties would need to be transferred to distant hospitals. This would reduce the over-crowding problem in hospital ERs. First-line ambulances only reciprocated between the mobile emergency medical center and the disaster area, saving time and shortening the working distances. Second-line ambulances were highly regulated between the mobile emergency medical center and requested hospitals. The ambulance service of the sequential-conveyance method was found to be more efficient than the conventional method and was concluded to be more profitable and reasonable on paper in adapting to climate change. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

Pan, C.; Chang, Y.; Wen, J.; Tsai, M.

2010-12-01

106

US Global Change Research Group Archives  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

According to their Web site, the US Global Change Research Group (USGCRP) was created to address uncertainties about changes in the Earth's global environmental system; monitor, understand, and predict global change; and provide sound scientific basis for national and international decision making. The archives page of the site provides links to current and past postings of the USGCRP information pages, going back to 1990. The postings include information on the latest global change research, including links to material on other sites.

1999-01-01

107

RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents nine fundamental principles that ...

108

Risks, opportunities and adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and eco- nomic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and for exploiting beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents 9 fundamenal principles that should be considered when designing adaptation policy, for example, a sound understanding of the potential regional effects of climate on

Joel D. Scheraga; Anne E. Grambsch

1998-01-01

109

Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons  

Microsoft Academic Search

Planned adaptation to climate change denotes actions undertaken to reduce the risks and capitalize on the opportunities associated\\u000a with global climate change. This paper summarizes current thinking about planned adaptation. It starts with an explanation\\u000a of key adaptation concepts, a description of the diversity of adaptation contexts, and a discussion of key prerequisites for\\u000a effective adaptation. On the basis of

H.-M. Füssel

2007-01-01

110

Psychology's contributions to understanding and addressing global climate change.  

PubMed

Global climate change poses one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in this century. This article, which introduces the American Psychologist special issue on global climate change, follows from the report of the American Psychological Association Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change. In this article, we place psychological dimensions of climate change within the broader context of human dimensions of climate change by addressing (a) human causes of, consequences of, and responses (adaptation and mitigation) to climate change and (b) the links between these aspects of climate change and cognitive, affective, motivational, interpersonal, and organizational responses and processes. Characteristics of psychology that cross content domains and that make the field well suited for providing an understanding of climate change and addressing its challenges are highlighted. We also consider ethical imperatives for psychologists' involvement and provide suggestions for ways to increase psychologists' contribution to the science of climate change. PMID:21553950

Swim, Janet K; Stern, Paul C; Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan; Reser, Joseph P; Weber, Elke U; Gifford, Robert; Howard, George S

2011-01-01

111

Global climate change and children's health.  

PubMed

There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change. PMID:17967923

Shea, Katherine M

2007-11-01

112

Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector  

PubMed Central

Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve efforts to support local adaptation and provide the capacity through which local adaptation can succeed.

2012-01-01

113

Direct globally convergent adaptive regulation of stable multivariable plants  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A simple globally convergent direct methodology for adaptive regulation of stable plants, assuming convergence of the parameters, is presented. The development is strictly in terms of the input-output representations and is based on the stable coprime factorization approach.

Ma, C. C. H.; Vidyasagar, M.

1987-01-01

114

Adapting to Climate Change: Research Challenges  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Community Coordination; Boulder, Colorado, 8-9 January 2009; In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) reaffirmed that anthropogenic climate change is under way, that future climate change is unavoidable, and that observed impacts can be attributed, at least in part, to anthropogenic warming. In addition, a growing number of

Jean Palutikof; Patricia Romero-Lankao

2009-01-01

115

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

The production of greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activities may have begun to change the global climate. he global carbon cycle plays a significant role in projected climate change. owever, considerable uncertainty exists regarding pools and flux in the global cycle. iven ...

116

Institutional dynamics and climate change adaptation in South Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is a multi-dimensional issue and in terms of adaptation numerous state and non-state actors are involved from\\u000a global to national and local scales. The aim of this paper is first to analyse specific institutional networks involved in\\u000a climate change predominantly at the national level in South Africa and second to determine how different stakeholders perceive\\u000a their role vis-a-vis

Ingrid Christine Koch; Coleen Vogel; Zarina Patel

2007-01-01

117

Global Solar Magnetic Field Maps using ADAPT  

Microsoft Academic Search

Estimates of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution are critical for space weather forecasting. These global magnetic charts are the essential data input for accurate modeling of the corona and solar wind, which is vital for gaining the basic understanding necessary to improve forecasting models needed for Air Force operations. In this poster, we describe our efforts and progress

Carl John Henney; C. N. Arge; J. Koller; W. A. Toussaint; S. Young; D. MacKenzie; J. W. Harvey

2010-01-01

118

Successful adaptation to climate change across scales  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes.

W. Neil Adger; Nigel W. Arnell; Emma L. Tompkins

2005-01-01

119

Adapting to climate change in Canada  

Microsoft Academic Search

The differences between mitigation and adaptation strategies are explained in terms of their environmental, institutional and political significance and linkages. The potential climate changes for Canada's different regions are presented and discussed for their overall and specific built environment impacts. Current national strategies and polices related to adaptation are still in a formative stage, but they recognize that responding to

Nils Larsson

2003-01-01

120

Propulsive adaptation to changing gait speed  

Microsoft Academic Search

Understanding propulsion and adaptation to speed requirements is important in determining appropriate therapies for gait disorders. We hypothesize that adaptations for changing speed requirements occur primarily at the hip. The slow, normal and fast gait of 24 healthy young subjects was analyzed. The linear power was analyzed at the hip joint. The anterior–posterior and vertical induced accelerations of the hip

Patrick O Riley; Ugo Della Croce; D Casey Kerrigan

2001-01-01

121

CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL ISOPRENE EMISSIONS  

EPA Science Inventory

Emission of isoprene from vegetation affects tropospheric chemistry at the regional and global scales. rojected global climate change will potentially alter emission rates, with corresponding influences on concentrations of ozone and other radiatively important trace gases. rogre...

122

Global view of bionetwork dynamics: adaptive landscape  

PubMed Central

Based on recent work, I will give a nontechnical brief review of a powerful quantitative concept in biology, adaptive landscape, initially proposed by S. Wright over 70 years ago, reintroduced by one of the founders of molecular biology and by others in different biological contexts, but apparently forgotten by modern biologists for many years. Nevertheless, this concept finds an increasingly important role in the development of systems biology and bionetwork dynamics modeling, from phage lambda genetic switch to endogenous network for cancer genesis and progression. It is an ideal quantification to describe the robustness and stability of bionetworks. Here, I will first introduce five landmark proposals in biology on this concept, to demonstrate an important common thread in theoretical biology. Then I will discuss a few recent results, focusing on the studies showing theoretical consistency of adaptive landscape. From the perspective of a working scientist and of what is needed logically for a dynamical theory when confronting empirical data, the adaptive landscape is useful both metaphorically and quantitatively, and has captured an essential aspect of biological dynamical processes. Though at the theoretical level the adaptive landscape must exist and it can be used across hierarchical boundaries in biology, many associated issues are indeed vague in their initial formulations and their quantitative realizations are not easy, and are good research topics for quantitative biologists. I will discuss three types of open problems associated with the adaptive landscape in a broader perspective.

Ao, Ping

2011-01-01

123

Adaptation to climate change in forest management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation in forestry is sustainable forest management that includes a climate change focus. Climate change over the next 100 years is expected to have significant impacts on forest ecosystems. The forestry community needs to evaluate the long-term effects of climate change on forests and determine what the community might do now and in the future to respond to this threat.

David L. Spittlehouse; Robert B. Stewart

2003-01-01

124

Scientific linkages in global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the atmosphere, certain trace gases both promote global warming and deplete the ozone layer. The primary radiatively active trace gases that affect global warming are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and tropospheric ozone. In the troposphere, the atmosphere up to 10 miles above the earth's surface, these compounds function as greenhouse gases. Many of these gases also influence

P. R. Jutro; R. C. Worrest; A. C. Janetos

1989-01-01

125

Impact of climate change on migratory birds: community reassembly versus adaptation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Aim Species can respond to global climate change by range shifts or by phenotypic adaptation. At the community level, range shifts lead to a turnover of species, i.e. community reassembly. In contrast, phenotypic adaptation allows species to persist in situ , conserving community composition. So far, community reassembly and adaptation have mostly been studied separately. In nature, however, both processes

Hans-Christian Schaefer; Walter Jetz; Katrin Böhning-Gaese

2008-01-01

126

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

During the next 50 years, which is likely to be the final period of rapid agricultural expansion, demand for food by a wealthier and 50% larger global population will be a major driver of global environmental change. Should past dependences of the global environmental impacts of agriculture on human population and consumption continue, 109 hectares of natural ecosystems would be

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-01-01

127

Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In order to meet the requirements of Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) as well as to continue the ADEOS and ADEOS2 missions, JAXA is now planning the GCOM mission which is composed of a series of satellites. There are two series of satellites, and they are now called GCOM-W and GCOM-C satellites. Both series are composed of 3 satellites with 5 years lifetime. Hence, 13 years of continuous observation can be assured with 1 year overlaps. The first satellite of GCOM-W will be launched in fiscal 2011 while the first one of GCOM-C will be launched in fiscal 2013. In regard to global warming, the GCOM intends the measurement of most factors involved in the energy and water cycle and material cycle, which are the main mechanisms determining climate change, and also analysis of the relevant processes. Within the material cycle, measurement of the carbon cycle is a key subject. In this particular field, the GCOM aims at estimating the primary production as well as carbon flux based on measurement data on land vegetation and phytoplankton. In regard to changes of the land environment, the measuring subjects are tropical forests and the global distribution of vegetation and its changes. In regard to the cryosphere, the sea ice concentration and snow coverage are measured and their interaction with the climate is analyzed. GCOM-W1 will carry AMSR2 (AMSR F/O). AMSR2 will be very similar to AMSR on ADEOS2 and AMSR-E on EOS-Aqua with some modifications. The aperture of AMSR2 is 2m, and AMSR2 will have more accurate hot load than AMSR. Two kinds of modification are intro-duced. One is to use an actively controlled thermal reflector over the hot load. This reflector is called a temperature controlled plate (TCP). Another modification is to shield the ambient emissions. GCOM-C1 will carry GLI F/O (called the second generation GLI : SGLI). The SGLI will be rather different from GLI on ADEOS2. The main targets of SGLI are atmospheric aerosols, coastal zone and land. In order to measure aerosols over both ocean and land, it will have a near ultra violet channel, as well as polarization and bi-directional observation capability. The instrument will be composed of several components. They are VNR (visible and near infrared), polarization (POL), and IRS (short wave to long wave infrared (SWI TMI). The VNR and POL will adopt push broom scanners, while IRS will use a conventional whisk broom scanner. VNR is composed of 3 cameras. They have rather small FOVs and cover total of 70 degrees with 3 cameras. VNR is an 11 channel scanner. POL will have two spectral channels, while each spectral channel is composed of 3 polarizations. SWI will have 4 channels. TMI will have 2 split window channels. For, coastal zone and land observation, the IFOV of SGLI for these targets will be around 250m. All channels of VNR except 763 nm and 1.64 m channel of SWI have 250m IFOV. TMI channels have 250m IFOV and all the other channels have 1000m IFOV. There are several options on the orbit. The baseline option is 700km afternoon orbit for GCOM-W1 and 800km morning orbit for GCOM-C1 to continue the AMSR-E observation and GLI observation. Now, it is decided that GCOM-W1 will be in A-Train. By getting into A-train, cross calibration with AMSR-E will be very easy, and there could be many new products with other A-Train sensors. However, if AMSR-E will be operated a long time after GCOM-W1 launch, this orbit will miss observation frequency. Both satellites are medium sized spacecraft, i.e. 1.9 to 2.0 tons.

Shimoda, Haruhisa

128

US Global Change Research Program  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Since its inception, USGCRP-supported research and observational activities, in collaboration with several other national and international science programs, have documented and characterized important aspects of the sources, abundances, and lifetimes of greenhouse gases; mounted extensive space-based systems for global monitoring of climate and ecosystem parameters; begun to address the complex issues of various aerosol species that may significantly influence climate parameters; advanced understanding of the global water and carbon cycles; and taken major strides in computer modeling of the global climate. Target Audience: Post-Graduate Students, 2-4 Year College Students, 9-12, Middle School

2009-12-03

129

Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Environment  

SciTech Connect

This overview chapter considers five questions that cut across the four case studies in the section to follow: (1) why are urban environments of particular interest; (2) what does an 'urban environment' mean as a focus for adaptation actions, (3) what do we know about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials in urban areas; (4) what can we expect in the future with adaptation in urban areas; and (5) what is happening with climate change adaptation in urban areas? After decades of inattention, adaptation to risks and impacts of climate change is now receiving long overdue attention, and it is only natural that a considerable share of this attention is focused on the places where most people live. This section considers climate change adaptation in the urban environment, defined as settings where human populations cluster - generally implying relatively large clusters, but not excluding smaller settlements that operate as coherent geopolitical and economic entities. Consistent with the topic of the book, the emphasis of this overview will be on urban environments in developed countries, but it will also draw on knowledge being developed from urban experiences across the globe.

Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL

2011-01-01

130

Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases  

PubMed Central

Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health.

Sutherst, Robert W.

2004-01-01

131

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Preparing agriculture for adaptation to climate change requires advance knowledge of how climate will change and when. The direct physical and biological impacts on plants and animals must be understood. The indirect impacts on agriculture's resource base of soils, water and genetic resources must also be known. We lack such information now and will, likely, for some time to come.

Norman J. Rosenberg

1992-01-01

132

Tajikistan : key priorities for climate change adaptation  

Microsoft Academic Search

How should Tajikistan adapt to ongoing and future climate change, in particular given the many pressing development challenges it currently faces? The paper argues that for developing countries like Tajikistan, faster economic and social development is the best possible defense against climate change. It presents some key findings from a recent nationally representative household survey to illustrate the strong public

Luca Barbone; Anna Reva; Salman Zaidi

2010-01-01

133

Adapting to Climate Change in Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water

Thomas E. Downing; Lasse Ringius; Mike Hulme; Dominic Waughray

1997-01-01

134

On integration of policies for climate and global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Currently envisaged mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions will be insufficient to appreciably limit climate change\\u000a and its impacts. Adaptation holds the promise of ameliorating the impacts on a small subset of systems being affected. There\\u000a is no question that both will be needed. However, climate change is only part of a broader multi-stress setting of global\\u000a through to local

Hadi Dowlatabadi

2007-01-01

135

Medical responsibility and global environmental change  

SciTech Connect

Global environmental change threatens the habitability of the planet and the health of its inhabitants. Toxic pollution of air and water, acid rain, destruction of stratospheric ozone, waste, species extinction and, potentially, global warming are produced by the growing numbers and activities of human beings. Progression of these environmental changes could lead to unprecedented human suffering. Physicians can treat persons experiencing the consequences of environmental change but cannot individually prevent the cause of their suffering. Physicians have information and expertise about environmental change that can contribute to its slowing or prevention. Work to prevent global environmental change is consistent with the social responsibility of physicians and other health professionals. 44 references.

McCally, M.; Cassel, C.K. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (USA))

1990-09-15

136

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES  

EPA Science Inventory

Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. hese include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. or fisheries resources, policy questions address eff...

137

Global Change and the Terrestrial Biosphere  

SciTech Connect

Terrestrial ecosystems sustain life on Earth through the production of food, fuel, fiber, clean air, and naturally purified water. But how will agriculture and ecosystems be affected by global change? Rogers describes the impact of projected climate change on the terrestrial biosphere and explains why plants are not just passive respondents to global change, but play an important role in determining the rate of change.

Alistair Rogers

2009-04-22

138

Global Change in the Great Lakes: Scenarios.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The Ohio Sea Grant Education Program has produced this series of publications designed to help people understand how global change may affect the Great Lakes region. The possible implications of global change for this region of the world are explained in the hope that policymakers and individuals will be more inclined to make responsible decisions…

Garrison, Barbara K., Ed.; Rosser, Arrye R., Ed.

139

Federal global change data plan reviewed  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scientists and data managers are grappling with an unprecedented challenge: how to handle the explosion of data being produced by global change research. The federal government is developing a plan to manage data among the various federal agencies that participate in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. From January 22 to 24, some 80 scientists, data managers, and officials from

Lynn Teo Simarski

1992-01-01

140

Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives, with each initiative in one stage contributing to initiatives in a subsequent stage. The learning by doing inherent in such a process-oriented approach is a requirement owing to the many uncertainties associated with climate change.

Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

2013-07-01

141

Ecological Restoration and Global Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)- afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to cli- mate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice

James A. Harris; Richard J. Hobbs; Eric Higgs; James Aronson

2006-01-01

142

Eighth symposium on global change studies  

SciTech Connect

The conference proceedings contain papers from 16 of 20 sessions. The topics of the sessions from which papers were selected were: (1) implications of the IPCC projections of the 21st century climate, (2) natural and forced climate variability, (3) atmospheric circulation; (4) climate trends and abrupt changes; (5) clouds, water vapor, and precipitation; (6) climate impacts; (7) correcting observational biases; (8) the World Ocean Circulation Experiment; (9) land surface and land surface/atmosphere coupling; (10) detection of anthropogenic climate change; (11) climate and global change and the insurance industry; (12) the paleoclimate record; (13) proxy indicators of climate reconstruction; (14) climate predictions; (15) monitoring global change; and (16) historical, current, and project climate trends. Conference sessions from which papers were not selected were: (1) The United States Global Change Research Program perspectives; (2) CLIVAR; (3) the temperature record; and (4) global change educational initiatives. A total of 63 papers were selected for the database.

NONE

1997-11-01

143

Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.  

PubMed

Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments. PMID:20860682

Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

2010-09-01

144

Climate Change and Global Citizenship  

Microsoft Academic Search

The international climate change regime has failed. Even the most optimistic assessment of action to limit greenhouse pollution in the coming few decades will not prevent calamitous changes in Earth's climate. Arguments for international—that is, interstate—justice that have permeated international negotiations on climate change have been insufficient in fostering robust action by states. Indeed, by diverting all responsibility to states,

PAUL G. HARRIS

2008-01-01

145

Review of Global Change Research Program plan  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The draft 10-year strategic plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which proposes broadening the scope of the program from climate change only to climate change and climaterelated global changes, “is an important step in the right direction,” according to a 5 January review of the plan by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies. However, the committee also said that the program's legislative mandate is even broader in allowing USGCRP to address many aspects of global change including climate change, the global hydrological cycle, and widespread land use changes. “The Program's legislative mandate is to address all of global change, whether or not related to climate. The Committee concurs that this broader scope is appropriate, but realizes that such an expansion may be constrained by budget realities and by the practical challenge of maintaining clear boundaries for an expanded program,” the report states. “We encourage sustained efforts to expand the Program over time, along with efforts to better define and prioritize what specific topics are included within the bounds of global change research.”

Showstack, Randy

2012-01-01

146

Monitoring adaptive genetic responses to environmental change.  

PubMed

Widespread environmental changes including climate change, selective harvesting and landscape alterations now greatly affect selection regimes for most organisms. How animals and plants can adapt to these altered environments via contemporary evolution is thus of strong interest. We discuss how to use genetic monitoring to study adaptive responses via repeated analysis of the same populations over time, distinguishing between phenotypic and molecular genetics approaches. After describing monitoring designs, we develop explicit criteria for demonstrating adaptive responses, which include testing for selection and establishing clear links between genetic and environmental change. We then review a few exemplary studies that explore adaptive responses to climate change in Drosophila, selective responses to hunting and fishing, and contemporary evolution in Daphnia using resurrected resting eggs. We further review a broader set of 44 studies to assess how well they meet the proposed criteria, and conclude that only 23% fulfill all criteria. Approximately half (43%) of these studies failed to rule out the alternative hypothesis of replacement by a different, better-adapted population. Likewise, 34% of the studies based on phenotypic variation did not test for selection as opposed to drift. These shortcomings can be addressed via improved experimental designs and statistical testing. We foresee monitoring of adaptive responses as a future valuable tool in conservation biology, for identifying populations unable to evolve at sufficiently high rates and for identifying possible donor populations for genetic rescue. Technological advances will further augment the realization of this potential, especially next-generation sequencing technologies that allow for monitoring at the level of whole genomes. PMID:22269082

Hansen, Michael M; Olivieri, Isabelle; Waller, Donald M; Nielsen, Einar E

2012-03-01

147

Decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the CZCS was revised using compatible algorithms with SeaWiFS. Both archives were then blended with in situ data to reduce residual errors. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (1997-2000) records. Global spatial distributions and seasonal variability of ocean chlorophyll were similar, but global means decreased over the two observational segments. Major changes were observed regionally: chlorophyll concentrations decreased in the northern high latitudes while chlorophyll in the low latitudes increased. Mid-ocean gyres exhibited limited changes. The overall spatial and seasonal similarity of the two data records suggests that the changes are due to natural variability. These results provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond.

Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.

2002-08-01

148

Administration pro-active on global change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Some drastic climate events during the past year alone (March blizzard, mid-western flooding, intensifying El Niño) have raised even more concern lately about the effects of global environmental change, which may in part be caused by an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. “We could see changes in climate greater than any we've seen in the past 10,000 years,“ said Katie McGinty, director of the White House Office of Environmental Policy.Addressing the attendees of a meeting entitled “Global Change: A New Direction for Decision Making,” held October 27-28 in Washington, D.C., where representatives of some federal science agencies, among others, presented their views on global environmental change policy and scientific issues, McGinty noted that the Clinton Administration is bringing a new direction to global change policy.

Bush, Susan

149

Algorithm 868: Globally doubly adaptive quadrature---reliable Matlab codes  

Microsoft Academic Search

We discuss how to modify a recently published Matlab code, coteglob, so that the excellent performance this code demonstrates for low and intermediate accuracy requests is retained while the performance is improved for high accuracy requests. coteglob is a globally adaptive code using a 5 and 9 point pair of Newton-Cotes rules. Combining an extended sequence of rules using 5,

Terje O. Espelid

2007-01-01

150

Successful adaptation to climate change across scales  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change impacts andresponses are presently observedin physical andecological systems. Ad aptation to these impacts is increasingly being observedin both physical andecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability andrisk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of

W. Neil Adger; Nigel W. Arnella; Emma L. Tompkins

151

Adaptive changes to compensatory stepping responses  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study investigated the adaptive changes in the compensatory stepping response that occur with repeated exposure to the same postural perturbation. Perturbations were applied as forward platform translations (which evoked backward stepping), and responses were characterized using videorecordings, surface EMG, and ground reaction forces. Testing of seven healthy young adults demonstrated that the first exposure to a novel perturbation tends

WE Mcllroy; BE Maki

1995-01-01

152

Global lightning activity and climate change  

SciTech Connect

The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

Price, C.G.

1993-12-31

153

Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands  

Microsoft Academic Search

In recent decades, it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is becoming warmer and that regional climates are changing. This report summarizes the results of an integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands carried out between July 2000 and July 2001 within the framework of the Dutch National Research Program on Global

Ierland van E. C; Groot de R. S; P. J. Kuikman; P. Martens; B. Amelung; N. Daan; M. Huynen; K. Kramer; J. Szönyi; J. A. Veraart; A. Verhagen; Vliet van A; Walsum van P. E. V; Westein

2001-01-01

154

Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

2008-06-01

155

Global atmospheric change and human health  

Microsoft Academic Search

On November 6-7, 1989, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) held a Conference on Global Atmospheric Change and Human Health. Since this conference, presented papers have been transformed and revised as articles that address several potential impacts on human health of global warming. Coming when it did, this was a very important conference. At the present time, there

Piver

1991-01-01

156

Transformation of the Biosphere: Global Environmental Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This presentation, available online as a printable PDF, discusses the direct impact humans have on the global environment. It contains an overview of how human negligence toward the Earth's soils, atmosphere, and waters not only harms ecosystems and species, but also degrades the quality of human life and four world maps depicting some global environmental changes.

157

Global vegetation changes from satellite data  

SciTech Connect

Long-term climate, soils data along with satellite observations are sued to quantify global land cover changes between pre-agricultural and present conditions. Changes in global land cover expressed as summer, mid-afternoon, radiometric surface temperatures, T{sub r}, ranged from -8 to +16 {degrees}C. Deforestation resulted in an increase in T{sub r}, while irrigated agriculture reduced the T{sub r}. The spatial heterogeneity in land surface fluxes created by the estimated land cover changes, currently not accounted for in Global Circulation Models, could have significant impact on climate. Potential and actual land cover datasets are available for climate modelers at 0.5x0.5{degrees} resolution to study the possible impacts of land cover changes on global temperatures and circulation patterns.

Nemani, R.; Running, S. [Univ. of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States)

1995-09-01

158

Global environmental change: Its nature and impact  

SciTech Connect

This book is intended as an entry-level textbook on environmental science for nonscience majors. Twenty chapters address topics from historical geology and climatic change to population dynamics, land-use, water pollution, ozone depletion and biodiversity, global warming.

Hidore, J.J.

1996-12-31

159

Budget increase sought for global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

A distinct federal budget initiative this year has spotlighted global change research for FY 1992. The budget asks for almost $1.2 billion---an increase of $232 million, 24% more than last year---to be spread among nine federal agencies in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Climate modelling and prediction is the top scientific priority for 1992, according to the National Science

Lynn Teo Simarski

1991-01-01

160

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change.  

PubMed

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change. PMID:18302999

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2008-06-01

161

Dictionary of global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This book represents a revision of the climate change lexicon that was prepared for the Second World Climate Conference in 1990. The conference had 1400 participants and consisted of a scientific component followed by a ministerial meeting. To foster communication among the different constituencies, a lexicon of climate and climate change was prepared for the participants. The dictionary includes definitions and descriptions of most of the scientific terms, organizations, and programs related to the physical aspects of climate change. Nearly 40% of the material describes organized projects, experiments, or programs, mostly international. Some information on biological topics, such as the difference between C3 and C4 plants, is also included. The length of definitions and descriptions ranges from one line to one or more pages, with the longer descriptions usually related to programs.

Maunder, W.J. (ed.)

1992-01-01

162

GAIA - Understanding Global Policy Issues in Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The impacts of global climate change are wide-ranging and profound. Adapting policies to deal with public health, economic, and security issues that will arise will be a difficult and challenging process. To help address these concerns the GAIA (Global Assimilation of Information for Action) project is being initiated at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory to bring together climate, public health, economic, and security subject matter experts to focus attention on creating policy issues to address the most important problems facing the world. Plans for GAIA's first year activities as well as future directions will be discussed.

Babin, S. M.; Paxton, L. J.; Pikas, C. K.; Schaefer, R. K.; Simpkins, S.; Swartz, W. H.; Weiss, M.

2010-12-01

163

Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal t...

M. Mcelroy

1983-01-01

164

Changing Rural Social Systems: Adaptation and Survival.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This book includes studies of globalization-related social changes in rural areas of the United States and other countries and implications of these studies for sociological theory. Although no chapter focuses exclusively on education, education-related themes include rural school dropouts and intergenerational poverty, the migration of rural…

Johnson, Nan E., Ed.; Wang, Ching-li, Ed.

165

Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal to that of a human life is studied. On this time scale the atmosphere, biosphere, and upper ocean are treated as a single coupled system. The need for understanding the processes affecting the distribution of essential nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and water--within this coupled system is examined. The importance of subtle interactions among chemical, biological, and physical effects is emphasized. The specific objectives are to define the present state of the planetary life-support system; to ellucidate the underlying physical, chemical, and biological controls; and to provide the body of knowledge required to assess changes that might impact the future habitability of the Earth.

Mcelroy, M.

1983-01-01

166

Global changes to atmospheric chemistry  

SciTech Connect

Changes in atmospheric concentrations of trace gases provided early evidence of widespread changes within the biosphere. Trace gas production by plants and in soils increased in response to human pressures. Long lived trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane are greenhouse gases and play an important role in stratospheric chemistry. Photochemically active compounds, isoprene, nitric oxide, and carbon monoxide, are determinants of tropospheric ozone concentrations and thus regulate the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Inclusion of isoprene produced by plants in 3-D chemical transport models increases atmospheric concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide substantially. In return, terrestrial ecosystems are sensitive to atmospheric composition, responding to increased N deposition with increased C uptake, and soil acidification, and responding to increased ozone concentrations and UV-B with decreased plant production.

Brasseur, G.P.; Holland, E.A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

1995-06-01

167

Climate effects of global land cover change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

When changing from grass and croplands to forest, there are two competing effects of land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to warming and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate. We have performed simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We find that global replacement of current vegetation by trees would lead to a global mean warming of 1.3°C, nearly 60% of the warming produced under a doubled CO2 concentration, while replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4°C. It has been previously shown that boreal forestation can lead to warming; our simulations indicate that mid-latitude forestation also could lead to warming. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming.

Gibbard, S.; Caldeira, K.; Bala, G.; Phillips, T. J.; Wickett, M.

2005-12-01

168

Uncertainty and global climate change research  

SciTech Connect

The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

1994-06-01

169

Hormonally mediated maternal effects, individual strategy and global change  

PubMed Central

A challenge to ecologists and evolutionary biologists is predicting organismal responses to the anticipated changes to global ecosystems through climate change. Most evidence suggests that short-term global change may involve increasing occurrences of extreme events, therefore the immediate response of individuals will be determined by physiological capacities and life-history adaptations to cope with extreme environmental conditions. Here, we consider the role of hormones and maternal effects in determining the persistence of species in altered environments. Hormones, specifically steroids, are critical for patterning the behaviour and morphology of parents and their offspring. Hence, steroids have a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of the offspring phenotype over its lifespan. Stress hormones, e.g. glucocorticoids, modulate and perturb phenotypes both early in development and later into adulthood. Females exposed to abiotic stressors during reproduction may alter the phenotypes by manipulation of hormones to the embryos. Thus, hormone-mediated maternal effects, which generate phenotypic plasticity, may be one avenue for coping with global change. Variation in exposure to hormones during development influences both the propensity to disperse, which alters metapopulation dynamics, and population dynamics, by affecting either recruitment to the population or subsequent life-history characteristics of the offspring. We suggest that hormones may be an informative index to the potential for populations to adapt to changing environments.

Meylan, Sandrine; Miles, Donald B.; Clobert, Jean

2012-01-01

170

An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an \\

Barry Smith; Ian Burton; Richard J. T. Klein; J. Wandel

2000-01-01

171

Is global warming already changing ocean productivity?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global warming is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on the global distribution of ocean productivity comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of SeaWiFS data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute global warming trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in SeaWiFS data to longer-term records from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of real trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global warming. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 yr length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001-2100 suggests that, on average, the global warming trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

Henson, S. A.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Dunne, J. P.; Bopp, L.; Lima, I.; Doney, S. C.; John, J.; Beaulieu, C.

2009-11-01

172

Predictive modeling of effects under global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed

R. N. Kickert; G. Tonella; A. Simonov; S. V. Krupa

1999-01-01

173

Predictive Modeling of Effects under Global Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed

Ronald N. Kickert; Giorgio Tonella; A. Simonov; Sagar V. Krupa

1998-01-01

174

Climate change and global water resources  

Microsoft Academic Search

By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global

Nigel W. Arnell

1999-01-01

175

Global climate change and infectious diseases  

Microsoft Academic Search

The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward

Shope

1991-01-01

176

International Cooperation on Climate Change Adaptation from an Economic Perspective  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper investigates the economic incentives of countries to cooperate on international adaptation financing. Adaptation is generally implicitly incorporated in the climate change damage functions as used in Integrated Assessment Models. We replace the implicit decision on adaptation with explicit adaptation in a multi-regional setting by using an adjusted RICE model. We show that making adaptation explicit will not affect

Kelly C. de Bruin; Rob B. Dellink; Richard S. J. Tol

2010-01-01

177

International Cooperation on Climate Change Adaptation from an Economic Perspective  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper investigates the economic incentives of countries to cooperate on international adaptation financing. Adaptation is generally implicitly incorporated in the climate change damage functions as used in Integrated Assessment Models. We replace the implicit decision on adaptation with explicit adaptation in a multi-regional setting by using an adjusted RICE model. We show that making adaptation explicit will not affect

Kelly C. De Bruin; Rob B. Dellink; Richard S. J. Tol

2009-01-01

178

Against a ‘wait and see’ approach in adapting to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Simulations of future climate change impacts are highly uncertain, particularly for catchment hydrology, where output from models of complex dynamic systems (global climate) are used as inputs to models of complex dynamic systems (hydrology models). This is problematic where decision-making for adaptation is underpinned by future climate predictions, and where policy-makers have opted to delay adaptation until either uncertainties are

Conor Murphy; Satish Bastola; Julia Hall; Shaun Harrigan; Nuala Murphy; Colin Holman

2011-01-01

179

President Clinton Speaks on Global Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

On October 22, 1997, President Clinton addressed the National Geographic Society on the issue of global climate change and global warming. This site contains the President's speech, along with a speech by Vice President Gore (in RealAudio format). Together, the speeches take a bit over thirty-six minutes. Note that the President's remarks begin at about 10 minutes and 50 seconds into the recording.

1997-01-01

180

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

181

Change and Aging Senescence as an Adaptation  

PubMed Central

Understanding why we age is a long-lived open problem in evolutionary biology. Aging is prejudicial to the individual, and evolutionary forces should prevent it, but many species show signs of senescence as individuals age. Here, I will propose a model for aging based on assumptions that are compatible with evolutionary theory: i) competition is between individuals; ii) there is some degree of locality, so quite often competition will be between parents and their progeny; iii) optimal conditions are not stationary, and mutation helps each species to keep competitive. When conditions change, a senescent species can drive immortal competitors to extinction. This counter-intuitive result arises from the pruning caused by the death of elder individuals. When there is change and mutation, each generation is slightly better adapted to the new conditions, but some older individuals survive by chance. Senescence can eliminate those from the genetic pool. Even though individual selection forces can sometimes win over group selection ones, it is not exactly the individual that is selected but its lineage. While senescence damages the individuals and has an evolutionary cost, it has a benefit of its own. It allows each lineage to adapt faster to changing conditions. We age because the world changes.

Martins, Andre C. R.

2011-01-01

182

Natural disaster reduction and global change  

SciTech Connect

There are three types of global change that affect human and economic losses due to natural disasters. The three kinds of changes are: (1) increasing economic development, especially along coastlines, in flood plains, and other hazard-prone areas; (2) changes in land surfaces and vegetation; and (3) variability and change in frequency and severity of natural hazards. Any program for reduction of disaster losses must take these factors into account, and trends in losses are due to these changes. 17 refs., 2 tabs.

Bruce, J.P.

1994-10-01

183

National Global Change Research Plan, 2012-2021. A Strategic Plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) advances the collective efforts of 13 U.S. Government agencies that collaboratively help the Nation better understand global change and its impacts. The rate of global change todayincluding increas...

2012-01-01

184

Global change technology architecture trade study  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Described here is an architecture trade study conducted by the Langley Research Center to develop a representative mix of advanced space science instrumentation, spacecraft, and mission orbits to assist in the technology selection processes. The analyses concentrated on the highest priority classes of global change measurements which are the global climate changes. Issues addressed in the tradeoffs includes assessments of the economics of scale of large platforms with multiple instruments relative to smaller spacecraft; the influences of current and possible future launch vehicles on payload sizes, and on-orbit assembly decisions; and the respective roles of low-Earth versus geostationary Earth orbiting systems.

Garrett, L. Bernard (editor); Hypes, Warren D. (editor); Wright, Robert L. (editor)

1991-01-01

185

Open access: changing global science publishing  

PubMed Central

The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D.

2013-01-01

186

A Framework for Monitoring and Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Interventions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change has become one of the most important global issues of our time, with far- reaching natural, socio- economic, and political impacts. In order to equip the community to deal with the effects of climate changes, various adaptation interventions have been furthered. However, efficacy of these interventions varies in terms of their ability to address specific climate change vulnerabilities

Vidhi; Parul Sharma

2010-01-01

187

Adaptive robot path planning in changing environments  

SciTech Connect

Path planning needs to be fast to facilitate real-time robot programming. Unfortunately, current planning techniques are still too slow to be effective, as they often require several minutes, if not hours of computation. To overcome this difficulty, we present an adaptive algorithm that uses past experience to speed up future performance. It is a learning algorithm suitable for incrementally-changing environments such as those encountered in manufacturing of evolving products and waste-site remediation. The algorithm allows the robot to adapt to its environment by having two experience manipulation schemes: For minor environmental change, we use an object-attached experience abstraction scheme to increase the flexibility of the learned experience; for major environmental change, we use an on-demand experience repair scheme to retain those experiences that remain valid and useful. Using this algorithm, we can effectively reduce the overall robot planning time by re-using the computation result for one task to plan a path for another.

Chen, P.C.

1994-08-01

188

Global climate change and infectious diseases  

SciTech Connect

The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

Shope, R. (Yale Univ. School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States))

1991-12-01

189

Geographic Landscape Visualisation in Planning Adaptation to Climate Change in Victoria, Australia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is a global challenge for all scientists the 21st century with a certain amount of ‘global warming’ already\\u000a inevitable. The magnitude and risks of climate change are now being more widely appreciated and the need for adaptation, including\\u000a land use, is becoming a social imperative. Profound changes to ecosystems and biodiversity are predicted, and climate induced\\u000a migration of

Ian Mansergh; Alex Lau; Rod Anderson

190

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact and vulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having the potential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related to climate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops a typology of adaptation to

Barry Smit; MARK W. SKINNER

2002-01-01

191

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize

Barry Smit; Mark W. Skinner

2002-01-01

192

Biological consequences of global change for birds.  

PubMed

Climate is currently changing at an unprecedented rate; so also human exploitation is rapidly changing the Earth for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and urbanization. In addition, pollution has affected even the most remote ecosystems, as has the omnipresence of humans, with consequences in particular for animals that keep a safe distance from potential predators, including human beings. Importantly, all of these changes are occurring simultaneously, with increasing intensity, and further deterioration in both the short and the long-term is predicted. While the consequences of these components of global change are relatively well studied on their own, the effects of their interactions, such as the combined effects of climate change and agriculture, or the combined effects of agriculture through nutrient leakage to freshwater and marine ecosystems and fisheries, and the effects of climate change and urbanization, are poorly understood. Here, I provide a brief overview of the effects of climate change on phenology, diversity, abundance, interspecific interactions and population dynamics of birds. I address whether these effects of changing temperatures are direct, or indirect through effects of climate change on the phenology, distribution or abundance of food, parasites and predators. Finally, I review interactions between different components of global change. PMID:23731810

Møller, Anders Pape

2013-06-01

193

Global change: Geographical approaches (A Review)*  

PubMed Central

The International Geosphere Biosphere Program sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions is directing attention to geophysical and biological change as influenced by human modifications in global energy and mass exchanges. Geographers in the Soviet Union and the United States have joined in critical appraisal of their experience in studying environmental change. This initial report is on some promising approaches, such as the reconstruction of earlier landscape processes, modeling of the dynamics of present-day landscapes, analysis of causes and consequences of anthropogenic changes in specified regions, appraisal of social response to change, and enhanced geographic information systems supported by detailed site studies.

Kotlyakov, V. M.; Mather, J. R.; Sdasyuk, G. V.; White, G. F.

1988-01-01

194

WATERSHED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS  

EPA Science Inventory

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) studies (among other issues) the impact of global change on water quality. This field study evaluates the impact of global changes (land-use change and climate change) on source water quality. Changes in source water quality change...

195

Global Change: A View from Space  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

In this talk, I will discuss the fundamental science and society problems associated with global change, with an emphasis on the view from space. I will provide an overview of the vision and activities of the World Climate Research Program in the next two decades. Then I will show regional climate changes and environmental problems in the East Asian region, such as biomass burning, urban pollutions, yellow sand, and their possible interaction with the Asian monsoon, particularly over Southern China.

Lau, William K. M.

2003-01-01

196

State Roles in the Global Climate Change Issue.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Events in 1988 helped focus the attention of several states on the global climate change issue. Consequently, the National Governors' Association conducted an assessment in 1989 and recommended various actions. By 1994, 22 states have enacted laws or regulations and/or established research programs addressing climate change. Most of these "no regrets" actions are set up to conserve energy or improve energy efficiency and also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Illinois has adopted an even broader program by 1) establishing a Global Climate Change Office to foster research and provide information and 2) forming a task force to address a wide array of issues including state input to federal policies such as the Clinton administration's 1993 Climate Change Action Plan and to the research dimensions of the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program. The Illinois program calls for increased attention to studies of regional impacts, including integrated assessments, and to research addressing means to adapt to future climate change. These various state efforts to date help show the direction of policy development and should be useful to those grappling with these issues.

Changnon, Stanley A.

1995-02-01

197

Surfing Global Change: Negotiating Sustainable Solutions  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SURFING GLOBAL CHANGE (SGC) serves as a procedural shell for attaining sustainable solutions for any interdisciplinary issue and is intended for use in advanced university courses. The participants' activities evolve through five levels from individual argumentation to molding one's own views for the "common good." The paradigm of "ethics of…

Ahamer, Gilbert

2006-01-01

198

Global Climate Change and Sea Level Rise  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this activity, students will practice the steps involved in a scientific investigation as they learn why ice formations on land (and not those on water) will cause a rise in sea level upon melting. This is a discovery lesson in ice and water density and displacement of water by ice floating on the surface as it relates to global climate change.

Sciences, California A.

199

Capturing provenance of global change information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide the evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and decision making. A new generation of web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose.

Ma, Xiaogang; Fox, Peter; Tilmes, Curt; Jacobs, Katharine; Waple, Anne

2014-06-01

200

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on const...

M. G. Bosilovich S. D. Schubert G. K. Walker

2003-01-01

201

Information technology and global change science.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The goal of this paper is to identify and briefly describe major existing and near term information technologies that cold have a positive impact on the topics being discussed at this conference by helping to manage the data of global change science and h...

F. P. Baxter

1990-01-01

202

Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: Contested spaces and emerging opportunities in development theory and practice  

Microsoft Academic Search

The pursuit of adaptation to climate change, both theoretically and practically, has intensified considerably over the past decade in response to increasing awareness of the potential impacts of global climate change. Despite this momentum, the interaction of climate change adaptation with pre-existing strategies to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in the developing world has only recently received significant attention. Using

PHILIP IRELAND

2010-01-01

203

Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need sophisticated climate models, in situ process studies, and data sets that extend back well before the introduction of satellite technology. Nonetheless, the repetitive, global view provided by satellites is contributing in a major way to our improved recognition of how the Earth im changing, a recognition that is none too soon in view of the magnitude of the impacts that humans can now have.

Parkinson, Claire L.

2009-01-01

204

Mycotoxins in a changing global environment--a review.  

PubMed

Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungal species that commonly contaminate staple foods and feeds. They represent an unavoidable problem due to their presence in globally consumed cereals such as rice, maize and wheat. Most mycotoxins are immunosuppressive agents and some are carcinogens, hepatotoxins, nephrotoxins, and neurotoxins. Worldwide trends envision a stricter control of mycotoxins, however, the changing global environment may not be the ideal setting to control and reduce the exposure to these toxins. Although new technologies allow us to inspect the multi-mycotoxin presence in foods, new sources of exposure, gaps in knowledge of mycotoxins interactions, appearance of "emergent" mycotoxins and elucidation of consequent health effects can complicate their control even more. While humans are adapting to cope with environmental changes, such as food scarcity, decreased food quality, mycotoxin regulations, crop production and seasonality, and other climate related modifications, fungal species are also adapting and increased cases of mycotoxin adverse health effects are likely to occur in the future. To guarantee access to quality food for all, we need a way to balance global mycotoxin standards with the realistic feasibility of reaching them, considering limitations of producers and designing strategies to reduce mycotoxin exposure based on sound research. PMID:24769018

Marroquín-Cardona, A G; Johnson, N M; Phillips, T D; Hayes, A W

2014-07-01

205

Adaptation changes the direction tuning of macaque MT neurons  

Microsoft Academic Search

Prolonged exposure to a stimulus, called 'adaptation', reduces cortical responsiveness. Adaptation has been studied extensively in primary visual cortex (V1), where responsivity is usually reduced most when the adapting and test stimuli are well matched. Theories about the functional benefits of adaptation have relied on this specificity, but the resultant changes in neuronal tuning are of the wrong type to

J Anthony Movshon; Adam Kohn

2004-01-01

206

Thermohaline circulations and global climate change  

SciTech Connect

Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change'' is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO{sub 2}-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced Co{sub 2}, changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 12 months has proceeded in several directions.

Hanson, H.P.

1992-01-01

207

Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions  

SciTech Connect

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

2006-10-01

208

Thermohaline circulations and global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This report discusses research activities conducted during the period 15 January 1992--14 December 1992. Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany C0[sub 2]-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced C0[sub 2], changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water Production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 11 months has proceeded according to the continuation discussion of last January and several new results have arisen.

Hanson, H.P.

1992-01-01

209

Global Change: Logs of Straw; Dendrochronology  

SciTech Connect

The U.S. Geological Survey has produced a teacher`s packet targeted for grades 4 through 6 entitled Global Change. Each Global Change packet contains the following inserts: (1) A color poster depicting the earth as a fragile planet on one side, and examples of visible global change on the reverse. (2) Three activities addressing {open_quotes}Time and Cycles,{close_quotes} {open_quotes}Change and Cycles,{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Earth as Home{close_quotes} (3) A teacher guide (4) An evaluation questionnaire. Trees are some of nature`s most accurate time-keepers. Their growth layers, appearing as rings in the cross section of the tree trunk, record evidence of floods, droughts, insect attacks, lightning strikes, and even earthquakes. Tree growth depends on local conditions, which include the availability of water. Because the water cycle, or hydrologic cycle, is uneven-that is, the amount of water in the environment varies from year to year-scientist use tree-ring patterns to reconstruct regional patterns of drought and climatic change. This field of study, known as dendrochronology, was begun in the early 1900s by an American astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglass.

NONE

1994-09-01

210

Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.  

PubMed

Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass. PMID:24874505

Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

2014-06-30

211

Global Climate Change: The Southern Ocean  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, is a key region in determining global climate. This video lecture presents data revealing that the Southern Ocean is undergoing an alarming warming trend that may affect climates in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. What does the Antarctic region tell us about our future? Is Antarctica especially sensitive, so that now it serves as an early warning system for catastrophic change? The speaker questions the belief that human input is local not global. The video is 9 minutes in length.

Gille, Sarah

212

State roles in the global climate change issue  

SciTech Connect

Events in 1988 helped focus the attention of several states on the global climate change issue. Consequently, the National Govenors` Association conducted an assessment in 1989 and recommended various actions. By 1994, 22 states have enacted laes or regulations and/or established research programs addressing climate change. Most of these `no regrets` actions are set up to conserve energy or improve energy efficiency and also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Illinois has adopted an even broader program by (1) establishing a Global Climate Change Office to foster research and provide information and (2) forming a task force to address a wide array of issues including state input to federal policies such as the Clinton administration`s 1993 Climate Change Action Plan and to the research dimensions of the U.S. Global Climate Research Program. The Illinois program calls for increased attention to studies of regional impacts, including integrated assessments, and to research addressing means to adapt to future climate change. These various state efforts to date help show the direction of policy development and should be useful to those grappling with these issues.

Changnon, S.A. [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (United States)] [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (United States)

1995-02-01

213

Global adaptive output feedback control for a class of nonlinear time-delay systems.  

PubMed

This paper addresses the problem of global output feedback control for a class of nonlinear time-delay systems. The nonlinearities are dominated by a triangular form satisfying linear growth condition in the unmeasurable states with an unknown growth rate. With a change of coordinates, a linear-like controller is constructed, which avoids the repeated derivatives of the nonlinearities depending on the observer states and the dynamic gain in backstepping approach and therefore, simplifies the design procedure. Using the idea of universal control, we explicitly construct a universal-type adaptive output feedback controller which globally regulates all the states of the nonlinear time-delay systems. PMID:23987650

Zhai, Jun-yong; Zha, Wen-ting

2014-01-01

214

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Global Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The first Key Finding from the recent USGCRP report ``Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States'' is: 1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. This statement is based on a combination of observational, theoretical and model based

B. Santer

2009-01-01

215

Climate Change Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity and Development Discussion Paper DSA-DFID Policy Forum 2008  

Microsoft Academic Search

1. Introduction The integration of climate change (CC) adaptation and adaptive capacity issues within development processes is now a central issue for development policy and practice. This paper aims to tease out how adaptation, adaptive capacity and development inter- relate, and to explore the way forward in terms of building response capacity. It is important to understand these linkages, because

Valerie Nelson; Richard Lamboll; Adele Arendse

216

Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant determinants of adaptation. However, empirical research on adaptation has so far mostly not addressed the importance of measurable and alterable psychological factors in determining adaptation. Drawing from the literature in psychology and behavioural

Torsten Grothmann; Anthony Patt

2005-01-01

217

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #37: PUBLICATION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY 2002 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM"  

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY 2002 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Reso...

218

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM  

EPA Science Inventory

This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

219

Rationales for adaptation in EU climate change policies  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper sets out a series of rationales for public policy related to adaptation to the impacts of climatic change in the EU. It begins by arguing that that both mitigation and adaptation are necessary parts of a coordinated policy response to the problem of climatic change. However, the 'problem structure' of adaptation is significantly different to that of mitigation.

Frans Berkhout

2005-01-01

220

Adaptation to Climate Change in Marine Capture Fisheries  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper responds to the challenge of how and when to adapt marine capture fisheries to climate change by: (1) providing a set of fisheries policy options to climate change; (2) developing a risk and vulnerability assessment and management decision-making framework for adaptation; and (3) describing the possible strategies and tactics for ex ante and ex post climate adaptation in

Quentin Grafton

2009-01-01

221

Adaptation to climate change in marine capture fisheries  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper responds to the challenge of how and when to adapt marine capture fisheries to climate change by (1) providing a set of fisheries policy options to climate change; (2) developing a risk and vulnerability assessment and management decision-making framework for adaptation; and (3) describing the possible strategies and tactics for ex ante and ex post climate adaptation in

R. Quentin Grafton

2010-01-01

222

Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Transformative actions are increasingly being required to address changes in climate. As an aid to understanding and supporting informed decision-making regarding transformative change, we draw on theories from both the resilience and vulnerability literature to produce the Adaptation Action Cycles concept and applied framework. The resulting Adaptation Action Cycles provides a novel conceptualisation of incremental and transformative adaptation as a

S. E. Park; N. A. Marshall; E. Jakku; A. M. Dowd; S. M. Howden; E. Mendham; A. Fleming

223

Adaptive change detection for real-time surveillance applications  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper describes a new real-time approach for detecting changes in grey level image sequences, which were taken from stationary cameras. This new method combines a temporal difference method with an adaptive background model subtraction scheme. When changes in illumination occur the background model is automatically adapted to suit the new conditions. For the adaptation of the background model a

Stefan Huwer; Heinrich Niemann

2000-01-01

224

Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and

M. Monirul Qader Mirza; Qader Mirza

2003-01-01

225

COMMUNICATING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: INVESTIGATING MESSAGE STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNICATING THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE.  

EPA Science Inventory

The research program is designed to generate findings that provide specific guidance to science communicators and government officials on how to best communicate knowledge about global climate change and other environmental issues to diverse lay audiences. Beyond providing gui...

226

Global Change Research Program: A Component of the US Global Change Research Program. 1993 Research Opportunities.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The necessity for understanding our global environment, its natural variability, and the changes imposed on it through human activities is recognized internationally. In the United States, the high priority placed by the Government on understanding the gl...

1992-01-01

227

SAGE III capabilities and global change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The science objectives of the satellite-borne SAGE III are presented as they pertain to detecting global change. SAGE III is the proposed follow on and improved version of SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II which have measured stratospheric and, in some cases, tropospheric species since late 1978. Specifically, SAGE III will measure profiles of aerosols, ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide and trioxide, neutral density, temperature, clouds, and chlorine dioxide using the solar and lunar occultation techniques. These techniques are inherently self-calibrating, provide high vertical resolution, and use well-behaved data retrievals making them ideal for trend detection and global change studies. The potential capabilities of SAGE III are illustrated by using data and results from SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II.

Mccormick, M. Patrick

1991-01-01

228

National Institute for Global Environmental Change (NIGEC)  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Established by the US Congress in the Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act of 1990, the primary goal of NIGEC is "to pursue excellent research in the field of global climate change." Additionally, NIGEC aims to serve as "a virtual institute that crosses regional boundaries to integrate and synthesize information for decision makers." To these ends, the NIGEC homepage provides detailed information on the Institute's research projects (organized by year and region), including a Global Change News Highlights section (includes abstracts and citations for cutting-edge scientific articles), a Publications section (organized by year and Region), and a Cross-Cutting Initiatives section (on specific NIGEC focal areas). Contact information for regional centers and links to related sites round out this research-oriented site.

229

Identification of Strategies for Adaptation Planning to Extreme Events under Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global climate change has significant but uncertain impacts on hydrological regimes as well as flooding patterns of a watershed, which may probably result in the enlargement of flood-prone areas and the loss of life and property. It is desired to develop effective approaches to identify optimal strategies of flooding adaptation under changing climatic conditions. In this study, a mixed integer

Yanpeng Cai; Gordon Huang; Chunhui Li; Tan Qian

2009-01-01

230

Strategies to enhance adaptability: Technological change, sustainable growth and free trade  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article proposes three broad interrelated strategies - stimulating technological change, sustainable economic growth and free, unsubsidized trade - to enhance future adaptability to global (including climate) change and some principles for developing the social, legal and economic frameworks necessary to effect these strategies. The proposals are based upon an examination of the present and potential contributions of the strategies

Indur M. Goklany

1995-01-01

231

Time series analyses of global change data.  

PubMed

The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis. Given the inconclusive correlation between temperature and solar activity, the significant intercorrelation between time, temperature, and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, and the suggestion of weak periodicity in the temperature data, additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic component from the natural variability in temperature when assessing local, regional, and global warming trends. PMID:15091751

Lane, L J; Nichols, M H; Osborn, H B

1994-01-01

232

Changing Conceptions of Globalization: Changing Conceptions of Education.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Examines changing conceptions of globalization in education, highlighting new electronic information technologies that, rather than promoting homogeneity, are producing a stimulus for a politics of difference. Cyborgs and cyberspace are emerging as discourses of disunity and difference. The essay recommends a form of critical localism to challenge…

Fitzsimons, Patrick

2000-01-01

233

National Institute for Global Environmental Change  

SciTech Connect

This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

Werth, G.C.

1992-04-01

234

Technologies for global change earth observations  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Advances in the areas of space-based observations, data/information analysis, and spacecraft/operations for the studying of global changes are discussed. Research involving systems analysis, observation technologies, information technologies, and spacecraft technologies is examined. Consideration is given to cryogenic coolers, IR arrays, laser and submillimeter sensing, large array CCD, information visualization, design knowledge capture, optical communications, multiinstrument pointing, propulsion, space environmental effects, and platform thermal systems.

Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.

1990-01-01

235

A new global deal on climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

A global target of stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations at between 450 and 550 parts per million carbon-dioxide equivalent (ppm CO2e) has proven robust to recent developments in the science and economics of climate change. Retrospective analysis of the Stern Review (2007) suggests that the risks were underestimated, indicating a stabilization target closer to 450 ppm CO2e. Climate policy at the international

Cameron Hepburn; Nicholas Stern

2008-01-01

236

Regime dependent changes in global precipitation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Assessment of changes in precipitation (P) as a function of percentiles of surface temperature (T) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (?) are presented, considering present-day simulations and observational estimates from the\\u000a Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim\\u000a reanalysis (ERA Interim). There is a tendency for models to overestimate P in the

Richard P. Allan

237

Progress in the Study of Global Change in China.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The Chinese government's efforts to cope with the global change are outlined. The following topics are included: (1) global climate change, including setting up historic climate data bank, developments of the model for prediction of climate change, inaugu...

R. Ye

1992-01-01

238

Potential responses of landscape boundaries to global environmental change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Global change is likely to affect the location, size, shape, or composition of landscape boundaries. Neutral models were used to study two general mechanisms by which landscape boundaries may respond to global change: (1) disturbance regimes may change in...

M. G. Turner, R. H. Gardner, R. V. O'Neill

1990-01-01

239

Changes in the variability of global precipitation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In our warming climate there is a general expectation that the variability of precipitation (P) will increase at daily, monthly and inter-annual timescales. The increased P variability comes about from that global warming would lead to "dry becomes drier and wet becomes wetter". That expectation was recently supported by an ocean study showing "dry becomes drier" over the oceans, where the water cycle dominates the global average. In this presentation, we will start with Budyko's perspective of surface water hydrology that evaporation is limited by available water (measured by precipitation) in a dry environment but it is limited by available energy (measured by potential evaporation) in a wet environment. That distinction constitutes fundamental difference between the ocean and land regarding the water cycle. By bringing this hydrologic perspective into both observational results and climate model outputs, we will demonstrate that the theory for the "dry becomes drier" may not apply over the land. To evaluate that, we analysed observations (1940-2009) of monthly P over the global land surface. Interestingly, we found a reduction in global land P variance that was due to a redistribution, where, on average, the dry became wetter while wet became drier. A further decomposition of the global land P variance into spatial and temporal components shows that the global land P variability has decreased over both space and time. Those counter-intuitive results highlight recent state-of-the-art climate modelling studies pointing out that P extremes/variability tend to decrease with aerosols while tending to increase with [CO2]. Our results lead us to speculate that aerosol loading has played a key role in changing the variability of P over land. ,

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael; Farquhar, Graham

2014-05-01

240

Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases warm the troposphere but have a cooling effect in the middle and upper atmosphere. The steady increase of CO2 is the dominant cause of upper atmosphere trends. Long-term changes of other radiatively active trace gases such as CH4, O3, and H2O, long-term changes of geomagnetic and solar activity, and other possible drivers also play a role. Observational and model studies have confirmed that in the past several decades, global cooling has occurred in the mesosphere and thermosphere; the cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere has lowered the ionosphere, increased electron density in the lower ionosphere, but slightly decreased electron density in the upper ionosphere. Limited observations have suggested long-term changes in the occurrence rate of major stratospheric warming, mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, wave activities and turbulence in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and occurrence of noctilucent clouds or polar mesospheric clouds. However, possible long-term changes of these parameters remain to be open questions due to lack of measurements. We will review recent progress in observations and simulations of global change in the upper atmosphere, and discuss future investigations with a focus on how measurements by commercial reusable suborbital vehicles can help resolve the open questions.

Qian, L.; Solomon, S. C.; Lastovicka, J.; Roble, R. G.

2011-12-01

241

U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2010: Our Changing Planet.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The report describes the activities and plans of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) established under the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The USGCRP coordinates and integrates scientific research on climate and global change supported by...

2010-01-01

242

Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview protocol meant to clarify any ambiguous wording or over-specialized vocabulary in the items. Corrected versions of the measures were then given to small groups of students to check for instrument and sub-scale reliability and to learn if any items had ceiling or floor effects. Results from administration of the post attitude survey showed a majority of students in multiple courses agreed with attitude items across the range of topics. For instance, 72 - 90% or students in 8 courses using the modules agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change." A majority of students also agreed with statements such as "Human actions are causing climate change, " and "there is sufficient scientific evidence that climate change is taking place." Where pre/post data was available, average scores across items increased after students used the curricula by an average of .5 on a scale of 1 - 5. Students also scored high on the climate change content measure. Average percentage correct scores per item ranged from 32% to 90%. Average scores also gained by 2 -4 points depending on course.

Weston, T. J.

2011-12-01

243

Toward an understanding of global change  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

In the international scientific community, the International Council of Scientific Unions has organized the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) to address the problems of global change. The objective of the IGBP is to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the total earth system, the unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human activities. The IGBP is currently in its preparatory phase, during which the program's goals and research components are slowly evolving and coming into focus. In this report, a limited number of high-priority research initiatives are recommended for early implementation as part of the U.S. contribution to the preparatory phase of the IGBP. The recommendations are based on the committee's analysis of the most critical gaps, not being addressed by existing programs, in the scientific knowledge needed to understand the changes that are occurring in the earth system on time scales of decades to centuries. These initiatives will build upon the capabilities of the U.S. program in global change.

1988-01-01

244

Global fish production and climate change  

SciTech Connect

Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

Brander, K.M. [International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2007-12-11

245

Global fish production and climate change  

PubMed Central

Current global fisheries production of ?160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

Brander, K. M.

2007-01-01

246

Predictive modeling of effects under global change.  

PubMed

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO(2), other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows. Further, models of land-use change are included. Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment. To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models. The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis. Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. The concluding suggestions point the direction for new developments in modeling and analyses that are needed for the 21st century. PMID:15093114

Kickert, R N; Tonella, G; Simonov, A; Krupa, S V

1999-01-01

247

Preparation of AVHRR GAC Data Sets for Global Change Studies.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The design of an Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data base for global climate and environmental studies (global change) is described. The assembly and preprocessing for long term AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC) data sets for the African ...

A. S. Belward J. V. Vogt A. Falk-langemann S. Saradeth H. Cambridge

1992-01-01

248

Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

How will various institutions respond to global warming? It's a multifaceted question, and one that forms the basis of this thoughtful course offered by MIT's Sloan School of Management. Materials for the course are offered as part of MIT's OpenCourseWare initiative, and they include a syllabus, reading suggestions, lecture notes, and several assignments. The course was originally taught in the spring of 2007 by Professors Henry Jacoby and Ronald Prinn, and it also draws on research from the university's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Visitors can get a sense of the course's basic objectives by looking over the readings and the lecture notes, and interested parties may even want to take on some of the homework assignments offered here.

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Webster, Mort

2008-05-29

249

Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers.  

PubMed

A factor of 2.5 increase in the global abundance of atmospheric methane (CH(4)) since 1750 contributes 0.5 Wm(-2) to total direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (2.77 Wm(-2) in 2009), while its role in atmospheric chemistry adds another approximately 0.2 Wm(-2) of indirect forcing. Since CH(4) has a relatively short lifetime and it is very close to a steady state, reductions in its emissions would quickly benefit climate. Sensible emission mitigation strategies require quantitative understanding of CH(4)'s budget of emissions and sinks. Atmospheric observations of CH(4) abundance and its rate of increase, combined with an estimate of the CH(4) lifetime, constrain total global CH(4) emissions to between 500 and 600 Tg CH(4) yr(-1). While total global emissions are constrained reasonably well, estimates of emissions by source sector vary by up to a factor of 2. Current observation networks are suitable to constrain emissions at large scales (e.g. global) but not at the regional to national scales necessary to verify emission reductions under emissions trading schemes. Improved constraints on the global CH(4) budget and its break down of emissions by source sector and country will come from an enhanced observation network for CH(4) abundance and its isotopic composition (?(13)C, ?D(D=(2)H) and ?(14)C). Isotopic measurements are a valuable tool in distinguishing among various sources that contribute emissions to an air parcel, once fractionation by loss processes is accounted for. Isotopic measurements are especially useful at regional scales where signals are larger. Reducing emissions from many anthropogenic source sectors is cost-effective, but these gains may be cancelled, in part, by increasing emissions related to economic development in many parts of the world. An observation network that can quantitatively assess these changing emissions, both positive and negative, is required, especially in the context of emissions trading schemes. PMID:21502176

Dlugokencky, Edward J; Nisbet, Euan G; Fisher, Rebecca; Lowry, David

2011-05-28

250

Global warming and changes in ocean circulation  

SciTech Connect

This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

1998-02-01

251

Explaining Climate Change - a Global Educational Initiative  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Understanding and responding to human caused climate change is one of the defining challenges facing humanity in the early 21st century. The need to both educate our youth and equip them to take decisive and effective action must become a critical focus of education. To this end we present www.explainingclimatechange.ca - a comprehensive learning package that presents the underlying science of climate change to a global student cohort aged 16 - 19 years. The materials within this resource include many interactive components that encourage an active learning approach to understanding the evidential bases for the science of climate change as well as tools enabling students to begin to develop mitigation strategies to reduce human impact on climate. These materials are a joint International Year of Chemistry legacy project of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, UNESCO, the American Chemical Society, the Royal Society of Chemistry and the King's Centre for Visualization in Science.

Martin, B.; Mahaffy, P.; Kirchhoff, M.

2012-12-01

252

Global warming and changes in drought  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Niña events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; van der Schrier, Gerard; Jones, Philip D.; Barichivich, Jonathan; Briffa, Keith R.; Sheffield, Justin

2014-01-01

253

Developing a framework for regional destination adaptation to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The tourism sector is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate, as it is often the weather that sets the parameters for various forms of tourism. Despite this, little research has been done to assist tourism destinations in adapting to climate change. Adaptation aims to moderate, cope with, and benefit from the consequences of climate change in order to manage risk

Ryan Jopp; Terry DeLacy; Judith Mair

2010-01-01

254

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress  

PubMed Central

Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature TW, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds 31?°C. Any exceedence of 35?°C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7?°C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11–12?°C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12?°C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.

Sherwood, Steven C.; Huber, Matthew

2010-01-01

255

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress.  

PubMed

Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature T(W), is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T(W) never exceeds 31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 degrees C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12 degrees C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 degrees C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record. PMID:20439769

Sherwood, Steven C; Huber, Matthew

2010-05-25

256

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience  

Microsoft Academic Search

Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate— health challenges that may

Jeremy J. Hess; Julia Z. McDowell; George Luber

2012-01-01

257

Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions  

SciTech Connect

This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

2011-09-30

258

Impact of global change on coastal hypoxia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coastal hypoxia, the depletion of oxygen concentration in coastal waters, is becoming more prominent on a global scale. Changes in climate and nutrient loadings are two aspects of global change that are expected to profoundly impact coastal hypoxia. We investigated the role of these drivers on the evolution of hypoxia in a stratified, temperate coastal system using a one-dimensional model. The model couples three submodels, describing the physical characteristics, the pelagic ecosystem and benthic diagenesis. The model is calibrated for the Central North Sea but the model approach is generic, and can be applied in stratified coastal ecosystems. Our results indicate that the projected changes in climatological conditions for the North Sea over the next 100 yr will increase the risk of hypoxia. On average the oxygen concentration is predicted to decrease by 17 ?M, mostly due to a reduced solubility at higher water temperature (responsible for 65% of the decrease). Increased stratification (22%) and enhanced biological rates due to higher water temperature (13%) also affect the future oxygen concentration. Nutrient loadings also have a strong effect on the occurrence of hypoxia. Decreasing nutrient concentrations strongly decreases the probability of hypoxic events, stressing the importance of continued extensive eutrophication management to mitigate the effect of increased temperature.

Meire, L.; Soetaert, K. E. R.; Meysman, F. J. R.

2012-10-01

259

Legalizing adaptation: water law in a changing climate  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation to climate change will play a critical role in water management in the coming decades, necessitating reform of the legal, regulatory, and institutional frameworks that govern water allocation, use, and quality to integrate adaptive water management. Legal and regulatory tools can also facilitate adaptive responses. This article provides an overview of the ways in which water laws, regulations, and

Carl Bruch; Jessica Troell

2011-01-01

260

Global sea level rise scenarios adapted to the Finnish coast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We calculate scenarios for the mean sea level on the Finnish coast by combining the land uplift, wind-induced changes in the local sea level, and large-scale sea level rise due to changes in ocean density and circulation and melting of land-based ice. The wind-induced changes were estimated by utilising their correlation with the zonal geostrophic wind, which explains 84-89% of the observed interannual variability of sea level on the Finnish coast. Future scenarios were based on the geostrophic wind projections from nine global circulation models. Land uplift rates are 4.1-9.9 mm/yr, determined from the observations after filtering out the wind-induced effect. A 26-155 cm range for the global mean sea level rise up to 2100 was obtained by combining several recently published scenarios. This rise is geographically unevenly distributed, and on the Finnish coast it is estimated to be only 24-126 cm. Relative sea level change in the Gulf of Finland in 2000-2100 is projected to be + 29 cm (- 22 to + 92 cm). A change of - 5 cm (- 66 to + 65 cm) is projected for the Bothnian Sea, and - 27 cm (- 72 to + 28 cm) for the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Hilkka; Kahma, Kimmo K.; Ruosteenoja, Kimmo

2014-01-01

261

Global climate change: Policy implications for fisheries  

SciTech Connect

Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. These include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. For fisheries resources, policy questions address effects on international, national, and regional scales. Climate change variables expected to affect inland and offshore fisheries include temperature rise, changes in the hydrologic cycle, alterations in nutrient fluxes, and reduction and relocation of spawning and nursery habitat. These variables will affect resources at all levels of biological organization, including the genetic, organism, population, and ecosystem levels. In this context, changes in primary productivity, species composition in the food-web, migration, invasions, synchrony in biological cycles, shifts in utilization of niches, and problems of larvae entrainment in estuaries have been identified. Maintaining ecosystem robustness (i.e., high biodiversity) is another component of the problem. Action requires establishing priorities for information needs, determining appropriate temporal and spatial scales at which to model effects, and accounting for interactive changes in physical and biological cycles. A policy response can be derived when these results are integrated with social needs and human population constraints.

Gucinski, H.; Lackey, R.T.; Spence, B.C.

1990-01-01

262

Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change  

PubMed Central

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Alghabari, F.; Gooding, M.J.

2014-01-01

263

Global flood risk under a changing climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This session focuses on data, methodologies and models available to develop a global probabilistic flood/drought risk model based on stochastic precipitation and temperature simulations. We will introduce a new framework to compute flood/drought risk and compare this approach with other currently used methodologies. We will explore the spatial and temporal correlations present in historical data as well as the contributions of tropical cyclone precipitation to the overall risk. Based on the analysis of current flood/drought risk the authors with give an outlook how this newly developed framework can be used to quantify the impacts of climate change on weather related risks.

Lohmann, Dag; Eppert, Stefan; Morrow, Guy

2013-04-01

264

Global climate change - a feasibility perspective of its effect on human health at a local scale  

Microsoft Academic Search

There are two responses to global climate change. First, mitigation, which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or store carbon in the short-term, and make development choices that will lead to low emis- sions in the long-term. Second, adaptation, which involves adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours that reduce the risks posed by climate change to

Michele Bernardi

2008-01-01

265

Geomorphology and the consequences of global climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popularist accounts, mediated through the lens of the physical science community behind the successive reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see a direct linkage between global climate changes and their impacts on passive human populations. Conversely, at the same time, there has been a huge research effort directed towards understanding land use and land cover changes caused by human activity, the associated impacts on land surface processes, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and their feedbacks on climate. In reality, however, global environmental change is mediated through, and by, four large-scale drivers which go beyond these two approaches to the global change problem: the globally-scaled controls of hydroclimate and sea level; the spatially and temporally discontinuous impacts of direct human activity; and the spatial context provided by topographic relief. These drivers are not all active in every landscape system and their relative importance varies between environments and biomes. An important task for geomorphology, at the spatial scale of 1 - 10 000 sq km and over timescales of decades to centuries, is to provide an alternative perspective on patterns of landscape vulnerability, akin to those already produced by ecosystem science and conservation biology. In meeting this challenge, geomorphology needs to focus more strongly on how knowledge gained from intensively studied small scale systems - typical of the Anglo-American process-based geomorphology of the last half century - to the time and space scales associated with adaptive strategies to climate change. Furthermore, geomorphology needs to promote an understanding of core geomorphological principles within the wider scientific community, emphasising the fact that landscape change under climate change is unlikely to be simply progressive and linear; highlighting the variable magnitude, mode and timeframes of morphological adjustment (responsiveness) from different geomorphic elements; identifying the key uncertainties in landscape responses; and promoting better-informed, landscape-based decision making. Ultimately, a geomorphology for the 21st century should have a strong underlying focus on making communities more resilient to the effects of climate change, particularly in helping those who are the most vulnerable and least able to cope with a rapidly changing environment.

Spencer, Thomas

2010-05-01

266

Antarctic Benthic Fauna in the Global Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the last 50 years a significant climatic shift has been observed along the Antarctic Peninsula (air and seawater temperature rise, glacial retreat, localized instances of lowered shallow waters salinities). Many Antarctic marine benthic invertebrates are adapted to specific environmental conditions (e.g. low stable temperatures, high salinity and oxygen content). Changes caused by global climate changes and subsequent glacial melting can be expected to have significant impacts on species physiology and distribution. The rise of sea water temperature coupled with such additional stress factors as melt water run-off, increased ice disturbance, disruption of food webs or invasion of alien species can be a serious problem for their long-term survival.

Kidawa, Anna; Janecki, Tomasz

2011-01-01

267

Global climate changes and the soil cover  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The relationships between climate changes and the soil cover are analyzed. The greenhouse effect induced by the rising concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, and many other trace gases in the air has been one of the main factors of the global climate warming in the past 30-40 years. The response of soils to climate changes is considered by the example of factual data on soil evolution in the dry steppe zone of Russia. Probable changes in the carbon cycle under the impact of rising CO2 concentrations are discussed. It is argued that this rise may have an effect of an atmospheric fertilizer and lead to a higher productivity of vegetation, additional input of organic residues into the soils, and activation of soil microflora. Soil temperature and water regimes, composition of soil gases, soil biotic parameters, and other dynamic soil characteristics are most sensitive to climate changes. For the territory of Russia, in which permafrost occupies more than 50% of the territory, the response of this highly sensitive natural phenomenon to climate changes is particularly important. Long-term data on soil temperatures at a depth of 40 cm are analyzed for four large regions of Russia. In all of them, except for the eastern sector of Russian Arctic, a stable trend toward the rise in the mean annual soil temperature. In the eastern sector (the Verkhoyansk weather station), the soil temperature remains stable.

Kudeyarov, V. N.; Demkin, V. A.; Gilichinskii, D. A.; Goryachkin, S. V.; Rozhkov, V. A.

2009-09-01

268

Dawn of astronomy and global climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The author proposes that the birth of astronomy in ancient civilizations, which took place nearly simultaneously (4000 - 5000 years ago) around the Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus, and the Yellow River, was caused by the global climate change (cooling and drying) that started about 5000 years ago after the hypsithermal (high-temperature) period. It is also pointed out that a few names of Twenty-Four Qi's appearing in old Chinese calendars are remnants of the calm climate in the hypsithermal period. It is discussed that numerous meteorological records seen in divination inscriptions on bones and tortoise-shells excavated at the capital of the ancient Yin (Shang) dynasty suggest occurrence of the climatic cooling and drying at that time and this change triggered spawning the early Chinese astronomy.

Nakamura, Tsuko

2007-12-01

269

Gene pleiotropy constrains gene expression changes in fish adapted to different thermal conditions.  

PubMed

Understanding the factors that shape the evolution of gene expression is a central goal in biology, but the molecular mechanisms behind this remain controversial. A related major goal is ascertaining how such factors may affect the adaptive potential of a species or population. Here we demonstrate that temperature-driven gene expression changes in fish adapted to differing thermal environments are constrained by the level of gene pleiotropy estimated by either the number of protein interactions or gene biological processes. Genes with low pleiotropy levels were the main drivers of both plastic and evolutionary global expression profile changes, while highly pleiotropic genes had limited expression response to temperature treatment. Our study provides critical insights into the molecular mechanisms by which natural populations can adapt to changing environments. In addition to having important implications for climate change adaptation, these results suggest that gene pleiotropy should be considered more carefully when interpreting expression profiling data. PMID:24892934

Papakostas, Spiros; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn; Bruneaux, Matthieu; Aykanat, Tutku; Vanoverbeke, Joost; Ning, Mei; Primmer, Craig R; Leder, Erica H

2014-01-01

270

Gene pleiotropy constrains gene expression changes in fish adapted to different thermal conditions  

PubMed Central

Understanding the factors that shape the evolution of gene expression is a central goal in biology, but the molecular mechanisms behind this remain controversial. A related major goal is ascertaining how such factors may affect the adaptive potential of a species or population. Here we demonstrate that temperature-driven gene expression changes in fish adapted to differing thermal environments are constrained by the level of gene pleiotropy estimated by either the number of protein interactions or gene biological processes. Genes with low pleiotropy levels were the main drivers of both plastic and evolutionary global expression profile changes, while highly pleiotropic genes had limited expression response to temperature treatment. Our study provides critical insights into the molecular mechanisms by which natural populations can adapt to changing environments. In addition to having important implications for climate change adaptation, these results suggest that gene pleiotropy should be considered more carefully when interpreting expression profiling data.

Papakostas, Spiros; V?llestad, L. Asbj?rn; Bruneaux, Matthieu; Aykanat, Tutku; Vanoverbeke, Joost; Ning, Mei; Primmer, Craig R.; Leder, Erica H.

2014-01-01

271

Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

Dauncey, Guy

272

Sensitivity of Local Temperature CDFs to Global Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The sensitivity of climate to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases at the global scale has been much studied [Knutti and Hegerl 2008, and references therein]. Scientific information to support climate change adaptation activities, however, is often sought at regional or local scales; the scales on which most adaptation decisions are made. Information on these scales is most often based on simulations of complex climate models [Murphy et al. 2009, Tebaldi et al. 2005] and have questionable reliability [Stainforth et al., 2007]. Rather than using data derived or obtained from models we focus on observational timeseries to evaluate the sensitivity of different parts of the local climatic distribution. Such an approach has many advantages: it avoids issues relating to model imperfections [Stainforth et al. 2007], it can be focused on decision relevant thresholds [e.g. Porter and Semenov, 2005], and it inherently integrates information relating to local climatic influences. Taking a timeseries of local daily temperatures for various locations across the United Kingdom we extract the changing cumulative distribution functions over time. We present a simple mathematical deconstruction of how two different observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural variability and/or the consequences of climate change. Using this deconstruction we analyse the changing shape of the distributions and thus the sensitivity of different quartiles of the distribution. These sensitivities are found to be both regionally consistent and geographically varying across the United Kingdom; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and South East England. We nevertheless find a common pattern of increased sensitivity in the 60th to 80th percentiles; above the mean but below the greatest extremes. The method has the potential to be applied to many other variables in addition to temperature and to many other parts of the globe in support of adaptation activities and potential impact assessments.

Stainforth, D.; Chapman, S. C.; Watkins, N. W.

2011-12-01

273

Conditional Uncertainty in Anthropogenic Global Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Although, the uncertainty associated with human-induced climate change is less that in many other human activities such as economic management and warfare, the uncertainties in the climate system have assumed a disproportionate profile in public debate. Achieving improved public understanding is dependent on consistent use of the various categories of change and their respective uncertainties. Probably the most important distinction to be made is between uncertainties associated with uncertain societal choices and uncertainties associated with the consequences of such choices. For the biogeochemical system, categories of uncertainty are adapted from those used in the study of uncertainty for the REgional Carbon Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) study. These are then extended and applied to the discussion of the combined carbon-climate system. Characterising uncertainties in future change requires a consistent approach to propagating into the future the uncertainties associated with the past and present state of the climate system. Again, previous analysis for the carbon system is extended to the carbon-climate system. The potential category ambiguities that arise from feedbacks between climate and carbon are identified and resolved. A consistent characterisation of the uncertainties in the earth system provides a basis for factoring the overall uncertainty into human and natural contributions.

Enting, I. G.

2012-12-01

274

Change-point estimation from indirect observations. 2. Adaptation  

Microsoft Academic Search

We focus on the problem of adaptive estimation of signal singularities from indirect and noisy observations. A typical example of such a singularity is a discontinuity (change-point) of the signal or of its derivative. We develop a change-point estimator which adapts to the unknown smoothness of a nuisance deterministic component and to an unknown jump amplitude. We show that the

A. Goldenshluger; A. Juditsky; A. Tsybakov; A. Zeevi

2008-01-01

275

Adaptation to Climate Change in Marine Capture Fisheries  

Microsoft Academic Search

This Research Report responds to the challenge for marine capture fisheries of how and when to adapt to climate change. The report presents: (1) a set of fisheries climate change policy options (2) a risk and vulnerability assessment tool and management decision-making framework; and (3) ex ante and ex post climate adaptation possibilities in the marine environment. The report also

R. Quentin Grafton

2009-01-01

276

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy  

Microsoft Academic Search

The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a

Alessandra Goria; Gretel Gambarelli

2004-01-01

277

Designing climate change adaptation policies : an economic framework  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation has long been neglected in the debate and policies surrounding climate change. However, increasing awareness of climate change has led many stakeholders to look for the best way to limit its consequences and has resulted in a large number of initiatives related to adaptation, particularly at the local level. This report proposes a general economic framework to help stakeholders

Stephane Hallegatte; Franck Lecocq; Christian de Perthuis

2011-01-01

278

Changes in Lake Ice: Ecosystem Response to Global Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This TIEE Data Set presents long term data on changes in dates of ice cover in three Wisconsin lakes. Global temperatures have increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit during the last century, most likely the result of ÃÂgreenhouse gasesÃÂ such as carbon dioxide from burning of gasoline, oil, and coal. There are many environmental consequences of warmer temperatures, some unexpected. One challenge to our understanding of environmental effects due to global warming is lack of data collected over long periods of time. In this activity, students plot more than 100 years of data on dates of "ice on" and "ice off" and duration of ice cover and examine patterns of variation at different time scales.

Bohanan, Robert

2010-02-16

279

Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Pacific  

Microsoft Academic Search

Integrating community-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) is identified at the policy and practical level as critical to aid effectiveness. Successful integration reduces both duplication of efforts and confusion at the community level, thus contributing to sustainable development. The challenges of integrating DRR and CCA are widely discussed from the global to the local level among

Anna Gero; Kirstie Méheux; Dale Dominey-Howes

2011-01-01

280

Beyond Adaptation: Resilience for Business in Light of Climate Change and Weather Extremes  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scientific findings forecast that one of the major consequences of human-induced climate change and global warming is a greater occurrence of extreme weather events with potentially catastrophic effects for organizations, industries, and society. Current management and adaptation approaches typically focus on economic factors of competition, such as technology and innovation. Although offering useful insights, these approaches are potentially ill equipped

Martina Linnenluecke; Andrew Griffiths

2010-01-01

281

No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns.  

PubMed

Evidence from Greenland ice cores shows that year-to-year temperature variability was probably higher in some past cold periods, but there is considerable interest in determining whether global warming is increasing climate variability at present. This interest is motivated by an understanding that increased variability and resulting extreme weather conditions may be more difficult for society to adapt to than altered mean conditions. So far, however, in spite of suggestions of increased variability, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether it is occurring. Here we show that although fluctuations in annual temperature have indeed shown substantial geographical variation over the past few decades, the time-evolving standard deviation of globally averaged temperature anomalies has been stable. A feature of the changes has been a tendency for many regions of low variability to experience increases, which might contribute to the perception of increased climate volatility. The normalization of temperature anomalies creates the impression of larger relative overall increases, but our use of absolute values, which we argue is a more appropriate approach, reveals little change. Regionally, greater year-to-year changes recently occurred in much of North America and Europe. Many climate models predict that total variability will ultimately decrease under high greenhouse gas concentrations, possibly associated with reductions in sea-ice cover. Our findings contradict the view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation. PMID:23883935

Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Philip D; Livina, Valerie N; Lenton, Timothy M; Cox, Peter M

2013-08-15

282

Strengthening socio-ecological resilience through disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: Identifying gaps in an uncertain world  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global environmental change and climate change are rapidly altering the world's socio-ecological systems and affecting human populations at multiple scales. Important manifestations of these changes are hazard and disaster events. The emerging fields of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction provide significant opportunities to avoid and\\/or reduce many of the negative consequences associated with such events. Reviewing current attempts

WILLIAM M. COLLIER; KASEY R. JACOBS; ALARK SAXENA; JULIANNE BAKER-GALLEGOS; MATTHEW CARROLL; GARY W. YOHE

2009-01-01

283

Climate change impacts and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (CIG) is an interdisciplinary research group that studies the impacts of natural climate variability and change on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Through research and interaction with regional stakeholders, the CIG works to increase the resilience of the Pacific Northwest to fluctuations and long-term changes in climate. The CIG's research focuses on four key sectors of the PNW environment: water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. This talk focuses specifically on the water resources sector of CIG, and its work addressing potential climate change impacts on the region's hydrology, and the potential for adaptation of water management, primarily through changes in reservoir operating policies, in response to projected effects of climate change. In the Pacific Northwest, as in most of the western U.S., warming temperatures are expected to result in lower winter snowpack, thus shifting seasonal runoff peaks earlier in the year, and increasing the duration of the summer and fall low flow period. The CIG is currently conducting a statewide assessment of the impacts of climate change for the State of Washington based on IPCC 2007 climate scenarios. Hydrologic scenarios have been generated by downscaling GCM scenarios to 1/16 degree latitude-longitude spatial resolution, and using these downscaled scenarios to force the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We describe the range of hydrologic projections recently performed for 16 downscaled GCMs and 2 global emissions scenarios for the next 100 years, with particular attention on the Puget Sound basin and the Yakima River basin. We also evaluate implications of the changing climate for the Columbia River reservoir system, both in terms of the tradeoff between reservoir releases made for salmonid protection and restoration and hydropower generation, and for flood control.

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2008-05-01

284

Global supply chain adaptations to improve financial performance : Supply base establishment and logistics integration  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand and describe the conditions that compel and underscore global supply chain (SC) adaptations. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – Insights from contingency theory, Porter's economic cluster theory and international factory mapping are used to analyze the SC adaptations that follow when an automotive firm moves from a domestic to a global SC. Findings –

Kun Liao; Erika Marsillac; Eldon Johnson; Ying Liao

2011-01-01

285

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #26: NEW WEBSITE FOR EPA'S GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM  

EPA Science Inventory

I am pleased to announce that the new website for EPA's Global ChangeResearch Program is now publicly accessible. The website address is: www.epa.gov/globalresearch. This website is designed to provide a portal through which scientists, resource managers, and the public can acc...

286

Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

287

Global climate change crosses state boundaries  

SciTech Connect

The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

Changnon, S.A. [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

1996-12-31

288

Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new strategies that inform their own means of communicating science, whether to the general public, to peers, or to other scientists. This course with the citizen science component serves as a model for other programs. Incorporating a communication aspect into science courses that revolve around complex but socially important topics, such as global climate change, is necessary in building the confidence in our science students to communicate effectively, imaginatively, and memorably. In addition, the students gain a deeper understanding and appreciation of the necessity to communicate to public audiences and the value of outreach to the community.

Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

2010-12-01

289

Global environmental change research: empowering developing countries.  

PubMed

This paper discusses ways to reconcile the United Nations Millennium Development Goals with environmental sustainability at the national and international levels. The authors argue that development and better use of sustainability relevant knowledge is key, and that this requires capacity building globally, and especially in the less developed regions of the world. Also essential is stronger integration of high-quality knowledge creation and technology--and policy--development, including, importantly, the creation of centers of excellence in developing regions which effectively use and produce applications-directed high quality research and bring it to bear on decision making and practices related to environmental change and sustainable management of natural resources. The authors argue that Southern centers of excellence are a necessary first step for bottom-up societal transformation towards sustainability, and that such centers must help design innovative ways to assess and place value on ecosystem services. PMID:18797803

Nobre, Carlos A; Lahsen, Myanna; Ometto, Jean P H B

2008-09-01

290

Analyses of Student Learning in Global Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Global Change course at Iowa State University is a senior undergraduate and graduate level course that has been delivered over the internet with online dialog and learning activities since 1995. Students may enroll in the course as a distance education course, but in doing so they engage in dialog with students in the conventional on-campus face-to-face course. Online delivery and student participation offer opportunities for promoting use of critical thinking skills and collaborative learning not available in face-to-face environments. Students are required to research, post, and defend with authoritative information their positions on a variety of global change issues and specifically identify how they have demonstrated use of critical thinking skills in their online postings. Threaded dialog is used for structuring interactions toward promoting collaborative learning. We analyze collaborative learning by use of a rubric based on the theory of language games. By random selection of 1,350 online dialog comments posted over the last 10 years we evaluated student response to requirements for demonstrating critical thinking skills and collaboration in learning. We found that, by itself, the requirement of demonstrating critical thinking skills in online dialog was insufficient in promoting collaborative learned as measured by the standards of language game theory. But we also found that if an online comment clearly defines a situation and makes a clear expectation of a response, the likelihood is high that a game will be created. And if a game is established, there is a high probability that it will be closed, thereby giving evidence that collaborative learning had occurred. We conclude that a key component in collaborative online learning lies in establishing a lead-off comment that provides sufficient background information to clearly define an engaging situation. It also must include a clear expectation that a response is expected that will provide dialog participants an opportunity to demonstrate critical thinking skills in their responding comments.

Takle, E. S.; Moser, H.; Sorensen, E. K.

2004-12-01

291

A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The diversity of wine production depends on subtle differences in microclimate and is therefore especially sensitive to climate change. A warmer climate will impact directly on wine-grapes through over-ripening, drying out, rising acidity levels, and greater vulnerability to pests and disease, resulting in changes in wine quality (e.g. complexity, balance and structure) or potentially the style of wine that can be produced. The growing scientific evidence for significant climate change in the coming decades means that adaptation will be of critical importance to the multi-billion dollar global wine-industry in general, and to quality wine producers in particular (White et al 2006, 2009; Hertsgaard 2011). Adaptation is understood as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected environmental change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). Autonomous adaptation has been an integral part of the 20th century wine industry. Technological advances, changes in consumer demand, and global competition have meant that growers and producers have had to adapt to stay in business. The gradual temperature rise in the 20th Century (0.7 °C globally) has been accommodated successfully by gradual changes in vine management, technological measures, production control, and marketing (White et al 2009), although this has in many cases resulted in the production of bolder, more alcoholic wines (Hertsgaard 2011). In spite of this success, the wine industry is surprisingly conservative when it comes to considering longer term planned adaptation for substantial climate change impacts. A few producers are expanding to new locations at higher altitudes or cooler climates (e.g. Torres is developing new vineyards high in the Pyrenees, and Mouton Rothschild is setting up new vineyards in South America), and the legal and cultural restrictions of Appelation d'Origine C?ntrollée (AOC) systems are being discussed (White et al 2009). Changes in the AOC regulations would, for example, be imperative if different grape varieties were to be cultivated in response to climate change. Thus far, however, there has been little coordinated action to plan ahead. The third Climate Change and Wine conference organised by the wine industry (April 2011 in Marbella, Spain; www.climatechangeandwine.com), exemplifies this situation since it focused on observed impacts and sustainable production (mitigation), rather than on adaptation to cope with projected change. Awareness and understanding of potential change is crucial in raising adaptive capacity (Metzger et al 2008). Diffenbaugh et al (2011) have recently developed a novel method for communicating potential climate change impacts for the wine industry using climate adaptation wedges. These diagrams summarise projected climate change impacts over time and distinguish the net gain or loss in wine production under a range of adaptation strategies. The climate adaptation wedges form a strong synthesis, illustrating how some losses can be negated with continued autonomous adaptation, but that even with effective planned adaptation the quality of premium wine-grapes is likely to alter. Although the study focused on the western US, the adaptation wedges can be compiled fairly easily for other wine regions, or even individual producers. As such, they can form an important communication tool, but can also help guide longer term strategic planning. Adaptation wedges require careful interpretation and it is probably this interpretation process that will provide the most valuable insights. The climate change impacts in the diagrams are based on observed relationships between climate and wine production, which is assumed to stay unchanged in the future. However, rapid climate change will be a great stimulus for a complex and unprecedented transformation of the industry. Similarly, the potential contributions of the alternative adaptation strategies to cope with climate change are best-estimates given current knowledge, but are open to discussion among experts. As

Metzger, Marc J.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2011-09-01

292

Feedbacks and Acceleration of Global Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial revolution has increased the level of atmospheric CO2 by about 45 % over that of earlier times. The increasing greenhouse effect is augmented by a series of feedbacks; most have been positive, but a few are negative. The most important are 1) Slowing of the thermohaline circulation system; 2) Decreasing Atlantic to Pacific vapor transport; 3) Increasing Arctic river runoff; 4) Melting of Arctic sea ice; 5) Periodic replacement of the Arctic atmospheric high by a cyclonic low pressure system; 6) Increased exchange of waters between the Arctic and North Atlantic; 7) Lessening of the Northern Hemisphere ice-albedo feedback effect; 8) Addition of methane from melting permafrost; 9) Overall changes in the rate of ocean mixing; 10) Overall changes in vegetation cover of land; 11) Increase in the area covered by C4 vegetation; 12) Addition of nitrous oxide from agricultural practices; 13) Changes in insect populations and their effect on vegetation; 14) Wildfires; 15) Soot accumulation on snow and ice; 16) Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet; 17) Changes in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 18) Closing of the ozone hole over Antarctica; 19) Decay of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 20) Expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice; 21) Slowing of the rate of organic matter sinking into the deep ocean; 22) Decrease in insolation reaching the surface of the Earth as a result of introduction of aerosols into the atmosphere; 23) Depletion of stratospheric ozone by nitrous oxide. The global and regional effects and relative importance of many of these feedbacks are uncertain, and they may change both in magnitude and sign with time. New and unexpected mechanisms are constantly being discovered. The uncertainties and complexity associated with climate system feedbacks are responsible for the acceleration of climate change beyond the rates predicted by numerical modeling. To add to the difficulties inherent in predictions of future climate change, the increasingly chaotic weather is an indication that the Earth's climate system is becoming unstable in response to the ongoing perturbations.

Hay, William

2014-05-01

293

Diatom Community Response to Global Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diatoms are ubiquitous components of marine and freshwater environments and are responsible for nearly a quarter of the world's primary production. These microscopic algae are excellent indicators of environmental change and are routinely used as indicators of water quality. Diatom frustules have also been used to infer past climate change. With anticipated increases in atmospheric CO2 and eutrophication, understanding the contribution by diatoms as sinks for carbon in the world's oceans and estuaries is crucial. Benthic diatoms are especially significant in this respect due to their interactions with both atmospheric and sedimentary carbon cycling. We investigated changes in marsh sediment diatom community structure in response to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and nitrogen input. Twenty plots of brackish marsh were enclosed in environmental chambers and exposed to two levels of atmospheric CO2 (ambient and elevated) crossed with a nitrogen-addition treatment (2 x 2 factorial) beginning in May 2006. DNA was extracted from sediment samples obtained from environmentally controlled marsh plots in June, 2008. Using diatom-specific primers, the diatom community was amplified by PCR and evaluated by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). The diatom community composition was then compared across the four treatments (Amb, Amb+N, Elev, Elev+N) using multivariate statistical methods. Multidimensional scaling plots revealed clear grouping of samples according to treatment. A global analysis of similarity test was significant, as were all pairwise comparisons of treatments. The greatest changes in community structure occurred in the elevated CO2 group. In contrast, Amb+N was more similar to Elev+N, suggesting that nitrogen effects may mask elevated CO2 effects on diatom community structure in these plots.

Hook, W. F.; Rose, J.; Langley, J. A.; Coyne, K. J.

2008-12-01

294

Clinal adaptation and adaptive plasticity in Artemisia californica: implications for the response of a foundation species to predicted climate change.  

PubMed

Local adaptation and plasticity pose significant obstacles to predicting plant responses to future climates. Although local adaptation and plasticity in plant functional traits have been documented for many species, less is known about population-level variation in plasticity and whether such variation is driven by adaptation to environmental variation. We examined clinal variation in traits and performance - and plastic responses to environmental change - for the shrub Artemisia californica along a 700 km gradient characterized (from south to north) by a fourfold increase in precipitation and a 61% decrease in interannual precipitation variation. Plants cloned from five populations along this gradient were grown for 3 years in treatments approximating the precipitation regimes of the north and south range margins. Most traits varying among populations did so clinally; northern populations (vs. southern) had higher water-use efficiencies and lower growth rates, C : N ratios and terpene concentrations. Notably, there was variation in plasticity for plant performance that was strongly correlated with source site interannual precipitation variability. The high-precipitation treatment (vs. low) increased growth and flower production more for plants from southern populations (181% and 279%, respectively) than northern populations (47% and 20%, respectively). Overall, precipitation variability at population source sites predicted 86% and 99% of variation in plasticity in growth and flowering, respectively. These striking, clinal patterns in plant traits and plasticity are indicative of adaptation to both the mean and variability of environmental conditions. Furthermore, our analysis of long-term coastal climate data in turn indicates an increase in interannual precipitation variation consistent with most global change models and, unexpectedly, this increased variation is especially pronounced at historically stable, northern sites. Our findings demonstrate the critical need to integrate fundamental evolutionary processes into global change models, as contemporary patterns of adaptation to environmental clines will mediate future plant responses to projected climate change. PMID:23505064

Pratt, Jessica D; Mooney, Kailen A

2013-08-01

295

Global change encyclopedia: A project for the International Space Year  

Microsoft Academic Search

``Global Change Encyclopedia'' is a project for the International Space Year in 1992. The project will produce a comprehensive set of satellite and other global data with relevance to studies of global change and of the Earth as a system. These data will be packaged on CD-ROMs, accompanied by appropriate software for access, display and manipulation. On behalf of the

J. Cihlar; R. Simard; M. Manore; R. Baker; D. Clark; J. Kineman; J. Allen; M. Ruzek

1991-01-01

296

Data management and global change research: Technology and infrastructure  

Microsoft Academic Search

There is a consensus among many scientists who would perform global change research that global-scale scientific data management programs and enabling policies need to be developed and implemented concomitantly with, if not in advance of, global change research programs. They are hopeful that US Federal government policies for scientific and technical data and information management will provide timely archival, analysis,

W Morrissey

1993-01-01

297

Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Chicago  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Under Mayor Richard M. Daley's leadership, the City of Chicago initiated the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) to better understand local implications of global climate change in both higher and lower emissions scenarios, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and implement programs to build future climate change resilience. The City approached this work not only as a way to make Chicago more adaptable in the future, but also to improve Chicago's quality of life today. The Chicago Climate Action Plan adopted stresses the importance of both reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago and preparing for climate changes that may be unavoidable. Building off of the City's significant environmental programs and projects, and based on our analyses of the climate effects and impacts that improved the scientific understanding of future climate change impacts on Chicago, the City then developed a set of climate change adaptation strategies, resulting in the City of Chicago Climate Change Adaptation Summary. This document includes prioritization of climate change adaptations based on relative risk as well as framework strategies for those tactics categorized as "must do/early action." In early 2008, The Mayor's Office asked five Commissioners from its Green Steering Committee to chair adaptation work groups including: extreme heat; extreme precipitation; buildings, infrastructure and equipment; ecosystems; and leadership, planning and communications. Working with staff from relevant departments, sister agencies and other stakeholders, these work groups developed 39 basic adaptation work plans, including plans for enhancing the City's existing projects and programs that relate to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation work will be on-going in City Departments under the Mayor's Office leadership. The City intends to continually monitor and improve its response to climate change, resulting in an improved quality of life for Chicago residents.

Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Coffee, J.; McGraw, J.; Parzen, J.

2008-12-01

298

Applying Climate Change Adaptation in Spatial Planning Processes  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Natural hazards play an increasingly important role in societal contexts due to rising casualties and costs observed in the\\u000a last decades, which is often attributed to Climate Change impacts. Climate Change adaptation and natural hazards have entered\\u000a European regional policy relatively recently but are quickly growing in importance. In addition to several national and regional\\u000a Climate Change adaptation strategies the

Philipp Schmidt-Thomé; Johannes Klein

299

Evolutionary history underlies plant physiological responses to global change since the last glacial maximum.  

PubMed

Assessing family- and species-level variation in physiological responses to global change across geologic time is critical for understanding factors that underlie changes in species distributions and community composition. Here, we used stable carbon isotopes, leaf nitrogen content and stomatal measurements to assess changes in leaf-level physiology in a mixed conifer community that underwent significant changes in composition since the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21 kyr BP). Our results indicate that most plant taxa decreased stomatal conductance and/or maximum photosynthetic capacity in response to changing conditions since the LGM. However, plant families and species differed in the timing and magnitude of these physiological responses, and responses were more similar within families than within co-occurring species assemblages. This suggests that adaptation at the level of leaf physiology may not be the main determinant of shifts in community composition, and that plant evolutionary history may drive physiological adaptation to global change over recent geologic time. PMID:24636555

Becklin, Katie M; Medeiros, Juliana S; Sale, Kayla R; Ward, Joy K

2014-06-01

300

Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation in Forestry  

Microsoft Academic Search

Current changes in climate are already affecting forest species. Future climate change will bring greater changes in range of occurrence, forest disturbance and growth rates. These changes in turn will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We already take account of climate in forest management; in the future we will have to apply these techniques with a greater intensity

David L. Spittlehouse

301

Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health  

PubMed Central

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context.

Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-01-01

302

Adapting to the effects of climate change on Inuit health.  

PubMed

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks-one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-06-01

303

Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change  

SciTech Connect

Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained sustainably, with minimal carbon debt incurred from land-use change.

Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

2010-08-10

304

Adaptation and extinction in changing environments  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The extinction risk of a population is determined by its demographic properties, the environmental conditions to which it\\u000a is exposed, and its genetic potential to cope with and adapt to its environment. All these factors may have stochastic as\\u000a well as directional components. The present chapter reviews several types of models concerned with the vulnerability of small\\u000a populations to demographic

Reinhard Biirger; Michael Lynch

305

A framework for explaining the links between capacity and action in response to global climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Although great strides have been made towards a more nuanced understanding of the impacts and causes of global climate change, the ability to design and implement policy responses that engender effective action has remained insufficient. Recent framings of adaptive capacity and mitigative capacity are built upon in this article, and response capacity is introduced as a useful way to integrate

Sarah Burch; John Robinson

2007-01-01

306

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: HOW WATER LAW NEEDS TO CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

1 ABSTRACT: Adaptive management represents the future of natural resource management, including that of water and aquatic resources. Adaptive management is an inherently flexible system, and in order to fully implement its principles, resource managers need to cope with change and uncertainty, and need flexible management tools at their disposal. This need to be flexible and cope with uncertainty and

Janet C. Neuman

307

Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper is a methodological contribution to emerging debates on the role of learning, particularly forward-looking (anticipatory) learning, as a key element for adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. First, we describe two major challenges: understanding adaptation as a process and recognizing the inadequacy of existing learning tools, with a specific focus on high poverty contexts and

Petra Tschakert; Kathleen Ann Dietrich

2010-01-01

308

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM  

SciTech Connect

Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

2013-04-01

309

Extracting the globally and locally adaptive backbone of complex networks.  

PubMed

A complex network is a useful tool for representing and analyzing complex systems, such as the world-wide web and transportation systems. However, the growing size of complex networks is becoming an obstacle to the understanding of the topological structure and their characteristics. In this study, a globally and locally adaptive network backbone (GLANB) extraction method is proposed. The GLANB method uses the involvement of links in shortest paths and a statistical hypothesis to evaluate the statistical importance of the links; then it extracts the backbone, based on the statistical importance, from the network by filtering the less important links and preserving the more important links; the result is an extracted subnetwork with fewer links and nodes. The GLANB determines the importance of the links by synthetically considering the topological structure, the weights of the links and the degrees of the nodes. The links that have a small weight but are important from the view of topological structure are not belittled. The GLANB method can be applied to all types of networks regardless of whether they are weighted or unweighted and regardless of whether they are directed or undirected. The experiments on four real networks show that the link importance distribution given by the GLANB method has a bimodal shape, which gives a robust classification of the links; moreover, the GLANB method tends to put the nodes that are identified as the core of the network by the k-shell algorithm into the backbone. This method can help us to understand the structure of the networks better, to determine what links are important for transferring information, and to express the network by a backbone easily. PMID:24936975

Zhang, Xiaohang; Zhang, Zecong; Zhao, Han; Wang, Qi; Zhu, Ji

2014-01-01

310

Extracting the Globally and Locally Adaptive Backbone of Complex Networks  

PubMed Central

A complex network is a useful tool for representing and analyzing complex systems, such as the world-wide web and transportation systems. However, the growing size of complex networks is becoming an obstacle to the understanding of the topological structure and their characteristics. In this study, a globally and locally adaptive network backbone (GLANB) extraction method is proposed. The GLANB method uses the involvement of links in shortest paths and a statistical hypothesis to evaluate the statistical importance of the links; then it extracts the backbone, based on the statistical importance, from the network by filtering the less important links and preserving the more important links; the result is an extracted subnetwork with fewer links and nodes. The GLANB determines the importance of the links by synthetically considering the topological structure, the weights of the links and the degrees of the nodes. The links that have a small weight but are important from the view of topological structure are not belittled. The GLANB method can be applied to all types of networks regardless of whether they are weighted or unweighted and regardless of whether they are directed or undirected. The experiments on four real networks show that the link importance distribution given by the GLANB method has a bimodal shape, which gives a robust classification of the links; moreover, the GLANB method tends to put the nodes that are identified as the core of the network by the k-shell algorithm into the backbone. This method can help us to understand the structure of the networks better, to determine what links are important for transferring information, and to express the network by a backbone easily.

Zhang, Xiaohang; Zhang, Zecong; Zhao, Han; Wang, Qi; Zhu, Ji

2014-01-01

311

Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

2013-03-01

312

Adaptation of Intersexes to Sex Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

A change of sex in intersexes in accordance with functional physiological capabilities is indicated at any age. Such a change is effected most smoothly at the ages of 3-4 years and from 14 to 20 years. A change of sex is less easily tolerated at the ages ...

I. V. Golubeva

1971-01-01

313

Southern Ocean: Its involvement in global change  

SciTech Connect

Southern Ocean is the site of considerable water mass formation which cools and ventilates the modern world ocean. At the polar front zone, formation of cool, low salinity water sinks and spreads northward at intermediate depths limiting the downward penetration of the thermocline. Within the seasonal sea ice zone and along the margins of Antarctica, convection injects very cold oxygenated water into the deep and bottom ocean. These conditions developed as Antarctica shifted into its present configuration and grew a persistent glacial ice sheet, about 14 million years ago. The potential of the Southern Ocean to ventilate the deep and bottom ocean layers is related to occurrence of polynyas that form within the winter sea ice cover. Global climate changes would be expected to alter the polynya size and frequency. Under greenhouse-induced warming offshore polynyas may become less common as the static stability of the Southern Ocean mixed layer increases. This would diminish the Southern Ocean's cooling influence on the deep layers of the world ocean, resulting in a warmer deep ocean. The fate of coastal polynyas is less clear.

Gordon, A.L.

1992-03-01

314

Forum: The challenge of global change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

How can we sustain a public sense of the common danger of global change while remaining honest in view of the realities of scientific uncertainty? How can we nurture this sense of common danger without making statements based on half-baked ideas, statistically unreliable results, or oversimplified models? How can we strike a balance between the need to overstate a case to attract the attention of the media and the obligation to adhere strictly to the ethos of science?The task of achieving a scientific understanding of the inner workings of the terrestrial environment is one of the most difficult and ambitious endeavors of humankind. It is full of traps, temptations and deceptions for the participating scientists. We are dealing with a horrendously complex, strongly interactive, highly non-linear system. Lessons learned from disciplines such as plasma physics and solid state physics which have been dealing with complex non-linear systems for decades, are not very encouraging. The first thing one learns is that there are intrinsic, physical limits to the quantitative predictability of a complex system that have nothing to do with the particular techniques employed to model it.

Roederer, Juan G.

1990-09-01

315

Adaptive capacity deficits and adaptive capacity of economic systems in climate change vulnerability assessment  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper considers two ways that economic concepts inform adaptive capacity assessments within the context of climate change vulnerability analysis. First, using an economics framework, there are rational and logical reasons why different individuals and different organized human systems have different levels of adaptive capacity and these differences do not necessarily correlate to differences in vulnerability. An alternative approach is

Tim Williamson; Hayley Hesseln; Mark Johnston

2010-01-01

316

Adaptive capacity deficits and adaptive capacity of economic systems in climate change vulnerability assessment  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper considers two ways that economic concepts inform adaptive capacity assessments within the context of climate change vulnerability analysis. First, using an economics framework, there are rational and logical reasons why different individuals and different organized human systems have different levels of adaptive capacity and these differences do not necessarily correlate to differences in vulnerability. An alternative approach is

Tim Williamson; Hayley Hesseln; Mark Johnston

2012-01-01

317

Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework to Determine Climate Change Adaptation Options for Victoria's Surf Coast  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper reports research into adaptation to climate change for regional tourism destinations. It explains the application of a regional tourism adaptation framework model to the Surf Coast destination, within the state of Victoria, Australia. It then examines the usefulness of the framework model in guiding a vulnerability resilience assessment of the destination and developing strategies to increase the destinations

Ryan Jopp; Terry DeLacy; Judith Mair; Martin Fluker

2012-01-01

318

Conceptualizing Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Findings from an Applied Adaptation Assessment Framework  

Microsoft Academic Search

Urban areas have particular sensitivities to climate change, and therefore adaptation to a warming planet represents a challenging new issue for urban policy makers in both the developed and developing world. Further to climate mitigation strategies implemented in various cities over the past 20 years, more recent efforts of urban management have also included actions taken to adapt to increasing

Katie Johnson; Margaretha Breil

2012-01-01

319

Climate Change and Agricultural Sustainability - A Global Assessment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of climate change impact on world-wide agricultural sustainability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections. The potential changes in agricultural land and crop water requirement and availability are assessed by region in the world. Uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from a number of GCMs and representative emission scenarios. Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e., soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that global arable land area is likely to be affected by emission scenarios, for example, it may decrease by 0.8% ~ 1.7% under scenario A1B (CO2-equivalent GHG concentrations of 850 ppmv) but increase by 2.0% ~ 4.4% under scenario B1 (CO2-equivalent GHG concentrations of 600 ppmv, which represents a greener economy than A1B). However, at the regional scale, although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are consistent: Regions with relative high latitudes - Russia, China and the U.S. - could see a significant increase in arable land in coming years, but South America, Africa, Europe and India could lose land area. For agricultural water use, the following questions are addressed: Where will there be a need for irrigation expansion and by how much? Where and how much of current irrigation pressures or water deficits for rainfed crops can be mitigated or aggravated? And finally, what is the overall situation for the entire world? It is found that despite the universally rising mean temperature, the global irrigation requirements are likely to decrease. This is probably due to the declining diurnal temperature range, which plays a key role in the evapotranspiration control, as well as the increasing precipitation in many areas contributing to the global balance-out of irrigation requirement. Regional impacts vary by direction and magnitude over the GCM and emission scenarios. In particular, the statistics of changes in the wetness index, referring to the ratio of effective rainfall over crop evapotranspiration, are investigated for different regions, showing the possible regional change trends in the future. Agricultural adaptations to climate change are necessary measures to sustain the world's agriculture, which are addressed considering the possible changes of both land and water. The adverse impacts of climate change require new irrigated areas or higher irrigation demands for some regions; while climate change can reduce irrigation while remaining suitable for cultivation in other regions; new agricultural land may emerge in some areas with reasonable productivity for rainfed crops. These situations will be discussed with regard to appropriate agricultural adaptations in different regions considering the robustness and uncertainty of the assessments under the various scenarios.

Cai, X.; Zhang, X.

2012-12-01

320

Helping Your Woodland Adapt to a Changing Climate.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Your woods are always changing and adapting as they grow and mature, or regrow after agricultural abandonment, natural disturbances, or harvesting activities. Events like storms, droughts, insect and disease outbreaks, or other stressors can damage trees ...

2014-01-01

321

Changing Army Culture: Creating Adaptive and Critical Thinking Officer Corps.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

As an open system organization the Army is constantly affected by variations in the environment that should ultimately spark change in the way Army leaders view, approach, and resolve problems. But this ability to demonstrate mental agility and adapt effe...

F. S. Clarke

2007-01-01

322

Coping, governance, and development: The climate change adaptation triad  

Microsoft Academic Search

The need to tackle climate change and development efforts together is widely acknowledged. However, even just the possibility of alternative visions of development is seldom contemplated. In fact, adaptation research usually assumes as \\

David Manuel-Navarrete; Mark Pelling; Michael Redclift

323

Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species' distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a

William W. L. Cheung; Vicky W. Y. Lam; Jorge L. Sarmiento; Kelly Kearney; Reg Watson; Daniel Pauly

2009-01-01

324

New U.S. global change research institute opens  

Microsoft Academic Search

Gerald Stokes, director of the new Joint Global Change Research Institute based at the University of Maryland, called it an ``auspicious time'' to start a new institute to focus on global climate change issues.Stokes, speaking at a March 12 event to formally open the institute, cited three recent reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the upcoming

Randy Showstack

2001-01-01

325

INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an intensification of precipitation (O'Gorman and Schneider 2009) and analysis of observed and simulated changes in extreme rainfall for Europe (Lenderink and van Mijgaard 2008) and over tropical oceans by Allan et al (2010) appear to corroborate this. Radiative absorption by water vapour (Previdi 2010, Stephens and Ellis 2008) also provides a thermodynamic feedback on the water cycle, and explains why climate model projections of global precipitation and evaporation of around 1-3% K-1 are muted with respect to the expected 7% K-1 increases in low-level moisture. Climate models achieve dynamical responses through reductions in strength of the Walker circulation (Vecchi et al 2006) and small yet systematic changes in the atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean that modify evaporation (Richter and Xie 2008). A further consequence is anticipated sub-tropical drying (Neelin et al 2006, Chou et al 2007); Allan et al (2010) confirm a decline in dry sub-tropical precipitation while the wet regions become wetter both in model simulations and satellite-based observations. Discrepancies between observed and climate model simulated hydrological response to warming (Wentz et al 2007, Yu and Weller 2007) are of immediate concern in understanding and predicting future responses. Over decadal time-scales it is important to establish whether such discrepancies relate to the observing system, climate modeling deficiencies, or are a statistical artifact of the brevity of the satellite records (Liepert and Previdi 2009). Techniques for extracting information on century-scale changes in precipitation are emerging (Smith et al 2009) but are also subject to severe limitations. Past decadal-scale changes in the water cycle may be further influenced by regionally and temporally varying forcings and resulting feedbacks which must be represented realistically by models (Andrews et al 2009). The radiative impact of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds and precipitation (Liepert et al 2004) provide an important example. Understanding surface solar 'dimming' and 'brightening' trends in th

Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

2010-06-01

326

Land use and climate change adaptation strategies in Kenya  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because\\u000a it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical\\u000a setting, a customized methodological framework was developed for application in assessment of climate change vulnerability\\u000a perception and adaptation options around

Aggrey Ochieng Adimo; John Bosco Njoroge; Leaven Claessens; Leonard S. Wamocho

2012-01-01

327

A GIS-based climate change adaptation strategy tool  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a geographic information system (GIS)-based risk assessment tool for visualising climate change impacts in agricultural industries and evaluating eventual adaptation strategies. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – A climate change adaptation strategy tool (CCAST) with built-in GIS capability has been developed for agricultural industries. Development of the GIS functionality within CCAST includes the implementation

De Li Liu; Bertrand Timbal; Jianhua Mo; Helen Fairweather

2011-01-01

328

Global Temperature Change in the 21st Century  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this TIEE dataset, students address the question of how global global temperatures change during the 21st century, and how these changes vary geographically, seasonally, and depending upon future human activities. Students consider how to detect trends in large data sets against a background of variation. They use output from global climate models to examine projected climate change during the 21st century under a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

Taub, Daniel R.

2011-08-29

329

The competencies demonstrated by farmers while adapting to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

World population growth, overconsumption of resources, competition among countries and climate change are putting significant pressure on agriculture. In Canada, changes in precipitation, the appearance of new pests and poor soil quality are threatening the prosperity of small farmers. What human competencies could facilitate citizens’ adaptation to climate change? The competencies displayed by six Canadian farmers were observed as they

Diane Pruneau; Jackie Kerry; Marie-Andrée Mallet; Viktor Freiman; Joanne Langis; Anne-Marie Laroche; Evgueni Evichnevetski; Paul Deguire; Jimmy Therrien; Mathieu Lang; Pierre-Yves Barbier

2012-01-01

330

Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review  

Microsoft Academic Search

The adaptability of North American agriculture to climate change is assessed through a review of current literature. A baseline of North American agriculture without climate change suggests that farming faces serious challenges in the future (e.g. declining domestic demand, loss of comparative advantage, rising environmental costs). Climate change adjustments at the farm-level and in government policy, including international trade policy,

William E Easterling

1996-01-01

331

Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Analyses of observation records from U.S. weather stations indicate there is an increasing trend over recent decades in certain types of severe weather, especially large precipitation events. Widespread changes in temperature extremes have been observed over the last 50 years. In particular, the number of heat waves globally (and some parts of the U.S.) has increased, and there have been widespread increases in the numbers of warm nights. Also, analyses show that we are now breaking twice as many heat records as cold records in the U.S. Since 1957, there has been an increase in the number of historically top 1% of heavy precipitation events across the U.S. Our new analyses of the repeat or reoccurrence frequencies of large precipitation storms are showing that such events are occurring more often than in the past. The pattern of precipitation change is one of increases generally at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics over land. It needs to be recognized that every weather event that happens nowadays takes place in the context of the changes in the background climate system. So nothing is entirely "natural" anymore. It's a fallacy to think that individual events are caused entirely by any one thing, either natural variation or human-induced climate change. Every event is influenced by many factors. Human-induced climate change is now a factor in weather events. The changes occurring in precipitation are consistent with the analyses of our changing climate. For extreme precipitation, we know that more precipitation is falling in very heavy events. And we know key reasons why; warmer air holds more water vapor, and so when any given weather system moves through, the extra water dumps can lead to a heavy downpour. As the climate system continues to warm, models of the Earth's climate system indicate severe precipitation events will likely become more commonplace. Water vapor will continue to increase in the atmosphere along with the warming, and large precipitation events will likely increase in intensity and frequency. In the presentation, we will not only discuss the recent trends in severe weather and the projections of the impacts of climate change on severe weather in the future, but also specific examples of how this information is being used in developing and applying adaptation policies.

Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

2011-12-01

332

STEM417: NASA Resources for Teaching Global Climate Change in High School  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This online, facilitated course is designed for high-school educators wishing to teach global climate change using an inquiry/problem-based approach. The course focusses on evidence that supports global climate change and how to use NASA data and resources to help high-school students discover mitigations or adaptations to climate change. The course is part of PBS Education's outreach and offerings to educators across the country; it is a 45-hour experience over six weeks and eligible for three graduate credits.

333

GRAZING SYSTEMS, ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES, AND GLOBAL CHANGE  

Microsoft Academic Search

Managed grazing covers more than 25% of the global land surface and has a larger geographic extent than any other form of land use. Grazing systems persist under marginal bioclimatic and edaphic conditions of different biomes, leading to the emergence of three regional syndromes inherent to global grazing: desertification, woody encroachment, and deforestation. These syndromes have widespread but differential effects

Gregory P. Asner; Andrew J. Elmore; Lydia P. Olander; Roberta E. Martin; A. Thomas Harris

2004-01-01

334

Geoengineering as global climate change policy  

Microsoft Academic Search

The use of hydrocarbon-based energy systems is deeply embedded in the contemporary global capitalist world system. Billions of individuals always are already engaged in an on-going, essentially unplanned, and still uncontrolled (with regard to the negative impact of burning fossil on the global climate) collective experiment in the growing use of these sources of energy. The unanticipated, and yet still

Timothy W. Luke

2010-01-01

335

Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

2013-12-01

336

Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

2012-12-01

337

Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability  

PubMed Central

Knowledge of local adaptation and adaptive potential of natural populations is becoming increasingly relevant due to anthropogenic changes in the environment, such as climate change. The concern is that populations will be negatively affected by increasing temperatures without the capacity to adapt. Temperature-related adaptability in traits related to phenology and early life history are expected to be particularly important in salmonid fishes. We focused on the latter and investigated whether four populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are locally adapted in early life-history traits. These populations spawn in rivers that experience different temperature conditions during the time of incubation of eggs and embryos. They were reared in a common-garden experiment at three different temperatures. Quantitative genetic differentiation (QST) exceeded neutral molecular differentiation (FST) for two traits, indicating local adaptation. A temperature effect was observed for three traits. However, this effect varied among populations due to locally adapted reaction norms, corresponding to the temperature regimes experienced by the populations in their native environments. Additive genetic variance and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively, they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes.

Jensen, Lasse Fast; Hansen, Michael M; Pertoldi, Cino; Holdensgaard, Gert; Mensberg, Karen-Lise Dons; Loeschcke, Volker

2008-01-01

338

Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk\\u000a given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes;\\u000a and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently\\u000a gained momentum in the political

Jörn Birkmann; Matthias Garschagen; Frauke Kraas; Nguyen Quang

2010-01-01

339

Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal,P

2006-01-01

340

Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

2014-02-01

341

Problem free nuclear power and global change  

SciTech Connect

Nuclear fission power reactors represent a solution-in-principle to all aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high- grade heat for electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-driving around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates. However, a substantial number of major issues currently stand between nuclear power implemented with light- water reactors and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems, including long-term fuel supply, adverse public perceptions regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps more seriously - cost. We describe a GW-scale, high-temperature nuclear reactor heat source that can operate with no human intervention for a few decades and that may be widely acceptable, since its safety features are simple, inexpensive and easily understood. We provide first-level details of a reactor system designed to satisfy these requirements. Such a back-solving approach to realizing large-scale nuclear fission power systems potentially leads to an energy source capable of meeting all large-scale stationary demands for high- temperature heat. If widely employed to support such demands, it could, for example, directly reduce present-day world-wide CO{sub 2} emissions by two-fold; by using it to produce non-carbonaceous fuels for small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction could be attained. Even the first such reduction would permit continued slow power-demand growth in the First World and rapid development of the Third World, both without any governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage.

Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Nuckolls, J.; Ishikawa, M.; Hyde, R.

1997-08-15

342

Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years  

Microsoft Academic Search

Changes in the global monsoon rainfall over land were examined using four sets of rain-gauge precipitation data sets compiled for the period of 1948-2003 by climate diagnostic groups around the world. Here, we define a global monsoon rain domain according to annual precipitation range, using simple objective criteria; then, we propose metrics for quantifying the intensity of the global monsoon

Bin Wang; Qinghua Ding

2006-01-01

343

Optimizing Reservoir Operation to Adapt to the Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change and upcoming variation in flood timing necessitates the adaptation of current rule curves developed for operation of water reservoirs as to reduce the potential damage from either flood or draught events. This study attempts to optimize the current rule curves of Cougar Dam on McKenzie River in Oregon addressing some possible climate conditions in 21th century. The objective is to minimize the failure of operation to meet either designated demands or flood limit at a downstream checkpoint. A simulation/optimization model including the standard operation policy and a global optimization method, tunes the current rule curve upon 8 GCMs and 2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) is used as the hydrology model to project the streamflow for the period of 2000-2100 using downscaled precipitation and temperature forcing from 8 GCMs and two emission scenarios. An ensemble of rule curves, each associated with an individual scenario, is obtained by optimizing the reservoir operation. The simulation of reservoir operation, for all the scenarios and the expected value of the ensemble, is conducted and performance assessment using statistical indices including reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability is made.

Madadgar, S.; Jung, I.; Moradkhani, H.

2010-12-01

344

Adaptation to climate change: European agriculture  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate change is considered as one of the main environmental problems of the 21st<\\/sup> century. Assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture suggest that in northern Europe crop yields increase and possibilities for new crops and varieties emerge. In southern Europe, adverse effects are expected. Here, projected increases in water shortage reduce crop yields and the area for cropping,

P. Reidsma

2007-01-01

345

Overview: Climate Change Adaptation in Industry  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The success of private industry has long been sensitive to weather conditions. Accordingly, companies regularly adjust their\\u000a business practices with change in the weather and the climate. Accelerating climate change increases the importance for industry\\u000a to manage weather risks, and it adds to the difficulty of this process. Case studies presented in this book from the electricity,\\u000a construction, insurance, and

Paul Kovacs

346

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) has sponsored several state-of-the-art assessments of future impacts of climate change on various climate-sensitive threats such as malaria, hunger, water shortage, coastal flooding, habitat loss, lowered carbon-sink capacity, and diminished coastal wetlands. The results, based on IPCC emission scenarios, figure prominently in the international debate about climate change, and

Indur M. Goklany

2008-01-01

347

Automatic calibration of hydrological model using fast global optimization algorithm with adaptive objectives  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One important aspect on hydrological modeling is the selection of best parameter values of the model that can best represent or simulate the hydrological behavior of a catchment, or often so-called model calibration. An automatic calibration technique for the Mike NAM rainfall-runoff model using fast global optimization algorithms is outlined. Various types of adaptive objective functions, like high/low peak weighted error and weighted error with extreme detection, are introduced for managing the high uncertainties. The high uncertainties here involve long period of missing data for calibration, improper imputation of missing data, underestimations of the Thiessen-derived precipitation data from raingauges and the radar-derived precipitation data, physical structure and measurement changes, as well as inaccurate flow estimations by a rating curve extrapolation. A number of catchment case studies with various uncertainty issues were selected to test the automatic calibration performance. Equifinality of the calibration results was resolved by measuring the metric distance to the parameter sets defined by a decision tree. The proposed model calibration technique using global optimization algorithms with adaptive objectives demonstrates a good performance on calibrating hydrological models with various uncertainties and is able to estimate the proper shape and magnitude of high-flows in the hydrograph in case of these flows were missing or inaccurately-estimated.

Siek, Michael; Velickov, Slavco

2013-04-01

348

Global Positioning System Antenna Fixed Height Tripod Adapter  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

An improved Global Positioning em antenna adaptor allows fixed antenna height measurements by removably attaching an adaptor plate to a conventional surveyor's tripod. Antenna height is controlled by an antenna boom which is a fixed length rod. The antenna is attached to one end of the boom. The opposite end of the boom tapers to a point sized to fit into a depression at the center of survey markers. The boom passes through the hollow center of a universal ball joint which is mounted at the center of the adaptor plate so that the point of the rod can be fixed in the marker's central depression. The mountains of the ball joint allow the joint to be moved horizontally in any direction relative to the tripod. When the ball joint is moved horizontally, the angle between the boom and the vertical changes because the boom's position is fixed at its lower end. A spirit level attached to the rod allows an operator to determine when the boom is plumb. The position of the ball joint is adjusted horizontally until the boom is plumb. At that time the antenna is positioned exactly over the center of the monument and the elevation of the antenna is precisely set by the length of the boom.

Dinardo, Steven J.; Smith, Mark A.

1997-01-01

349

Adaptation to climate change to enhance food security and preserve environmental quality: example for southern Sri Lanka  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation strategies to climate change have been explored using a linked field-scale basin-scale modeling framework for Walawe basin, Sri Lanka. An integrated approach was followed concentrating on enhancement of food security and preservation of environmental quality. Climate change projections were extracted from the Hadley Climate Center (HadCM3) coupled global circulation model (GCM). Impact and adaptation strategies were evaluated with a

Peter Droogers

2004-01-01

350

Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change: comparing segmentation at global and regional scales  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent concerns about potential climate-change effects on coastal systems require the application of vulnerability assessment\\u000a tools in order to define suitable adaptation strategies and improve coastal zone management effectiveness. In fact, while\\u000a various research efforts were devoted to evaluate coastal vulnerability to climate change on a national to global level, fewer\\u000a applications were carried out so far to develop more

Silvia Torresan; Andrea Critto; Matteo Dalla Valle; Nick Harvey; Antonio Marcomini

2008-01-01

351

The U.S. Global Change Research Program  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This is the homepage of the U.S. Global Research Program (USGCRP), an initiative to support research on the interactions of natural and human-induced changes in the global environment and their implications for society. Visitors can study overviews of the topics of greatest interest to the USGCRP, which include atmospheric composition, climatic variability and change, global cycles for carbon and water, ecosystems, land use/land cover, and human contributions and responses to global change. Links are also provided to news articles, participating government agencies, and international research cooperative efforts.

352

Perspectives on Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Many regions in Europe are vulnerable to climate change impacts and these have already been observed in many human and natural\\u000a systems. There is therefore a need for all European countries to adapt to climate change. However, climate change does not\\u000a pose a threat at all levels of change, nor in a similar way across all economic sectors and regions.

Stéphane Isoard

353

GLOBAL ECOSYSTEMS DATABASE PROJECT: AN EXPERIMENT IN DATA INTEGRATION FOR GLOBAL CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Ecosystems Database Project (GEDP) is developing an integrated global database to support global change characterization and modeling. ne CD ROM of integrated data was published in 1992 (NOAA-EPA, 1992) with supporting documents, and another is in development. his pape...

354

U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2011: Our Changing Planet.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The report describes the activities and plans of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) established under the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. The USGCRP coordinates and integrates scientific research on climate and global change and i...

2011-01-01

355

Spatial planning for adapting to climate change.  

PubMed

During the past decades human interference in regional hydrologic systems has intensified. These systems act as an integrating medium. They link climate, human activities and ecologic processes through groundwater and surface water interactions. For simulating these linkages an integrated regional hydrologic model has been coupled to an ecologic evaluation model. The simulated ecologic effects of climate change on mesotrophic riverine grasslands are clearly positive. Simulation results also indicate a high sensitivity of the peak discharges to the precipitation. For modelling the long-term development of land use and water management an integrated 'bio-economic' model has been constructed. It includes a model for the development of agriculture. Results for the autonomous development in reaction to climate change indicate a strong increase of field drainage by agriculture. This development would substantially reduce the predicted positive effects of climate change on riverine grasslands. The challenge is to guide regional developments in such a manner that opportunities for improving nature are not lost, but that at the same time the peak discharges are kept under control. Flow retardation in the 'fine arteries' of the upstream areas appear to be a viable option for the latter. The bio-economic model can provide help in anticipating on climate change through spatial planning. PMID:15918358

van Walsum, P E V; Runhaar, J; Helming, J F M

2005-01-01

356

Using the Global Electric Circuit to monitor global climate change (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The global atmospheric electric circuit describes the global link between fair weather electric fields and currents measured at the Earth's surface, and the generator of these fields and currents in regions of stormy weather. Ever since the 1920s we have known about the global nature of these electric parameters, which appear to vary as a function of universal time (UT) and not local time (LT). It was also shown in the late 1920s that the "batteries" of the GEC are related to thunderstorm activity around the globe, that produce a clear global diurnal cycle due to the longitudinal distribution of the tropical landmasses. Due to the global nature of these electric fields and currents, the GEC supplies perhaps the only global geophysical index that can be measured at a single location on the Earth's surface, representing global electrical activity on the planet. The GEC can be broken down into a DC (direct current) part, and an AC (alternating current) part. Due to the global nature of the electric circuit it has been proposed by some to use geo-electric indices as proxies for changes in the global climate. If global warming results in changes in thunderstorm distribution, number and/or intensity, the GEC may allow us to monitor these changes from only a few ground stations. The advantages and disadvantages of using the GEC to monitor climate change will be presented together with some examples of how the global electric circuit has already been used to monitor changes in the Earth's climate.

Price, C. G.

2013-12-01

357

Developing Countries & Global Climate Change: Electric Power Options in Korea  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Pew Center on Global Climate Change has recently placed online the October 1999 report entitled "Developing Countries & Global Climate Change: Electric Power Options in Korea." Written by Jin-Gyu Oh and others, the report (.pdf format) discusses the implications of Korea's energy choices -- coal, gas, nuclear, or renewable energy -- and how the chosen "mix of policy, growth, and technology will affect investment costs and the local and global environment."

Chandler, William.; Jo, Sung B.; Kim, Jinwoo.; Logan, Jeffrey.; Oh, Jin-Gyu.; Roh, Dong-Seok.

1999-01-01

358

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN NEW ZEALAND: A CROSS-DISCIPLINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE NEED TO ADAPT BUILDINGS, WITH FOCUS ON HOUSING  

Microsoft Academic Search

The scientific evidence is very strong: climate change presents very serious global risks and it demands an urgent global response. This paper is part of the dissemination phase of a research project assessing the need to adapt buildings in New Zealand to climate change based on medium-low and medium-high climate change scenarios from research by the National Institute of Water

BENGTSSON JONAS; BENNETT JESSICA; MCKERNON STEPHEN; MULLAN BRETT; PAGE IAN

359

Global Robust and Adaptive Output Feedback Dynamic Positioning of Surface Ships  

Microsoft Academic Search

A constructive method is presented to design a global robust and adaptive output feedback controller for dynamic positioning of surface ships under environmental disturbances. Measurements of the ship's velocities are not required for feedback. The ship's parameters are not required to be known. An adaptive observer is first designed to estimate the ship's velocities and parameters. The control is then

K. D. Do

2007-01-01

360

Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

361

Clinical Evaluation of Global Change in Alzheimer's Disease: Identifying Consensus  

Microsoft Academic Search

It is important that clinicians who rate global change as part of Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical drug trials agree on a relevant set of behaviors and information to be considered in formulating their rating. Yet, consensus among raters has been difficult to establish, and inter-rater reliability of clinical global impression of change (CGIC) ratings has been low. In preparation for

Jason T. Olin; Lon S. Schneider; Rachelle S. Doody; Christopher M. Clark; Steven H. Ferris; John C. Morris; Barry Reisberg; Frederick A. Schmitt

1996-01-01

362

Historic-Sociocultural Premises (HSCPs) and Global Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Global change occurs at many, often interrelated levels. This paper is angled specifically to identify: 1.) Dimensions of similarity and difference across societies. Representative conclusions from anthropology, sociology and cross-cultural psychology are explored. These dimensions could serve to determine base-lines to study global change in cultural traits and beliefs over time; 2.) It is argued, however, that for practical purposes,

R. Diaz-guerrero

1991-01-01

363

The U.S. Global Change Research Program  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Office of Science and Technology Policy has established the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) to help solve problems, to improve economic competitiveness, and to provide stimulus for education. Within the NSTC, the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research is responsible for seven environmental issues, including all research relating to global change. The US Global Change Research Program

MacCracken

1994-01-01

364

The Science of Global Climate Change and Human Influences  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Webcast is an expert lecture by Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics division. The presentation includes evidence that the atmosphere is changing, discussions on global energy flows and human factors contributing to change, and concludes with predictions for the future. This version of the presentation has enhanced graphics and links to additional resources.

Spangler, Tim

2004-06-14

365

Separating the nature and nurture of the allocation of energy in response to global change.  

PubMed

Understanding and predicting biological stability and change in the face of rapid anthropogenic modifications of ecosystems and geosystems are grand challenges facing environmental and life scientists. Physiologically, organisms withstand environmental stress through changes in biochemical regulation that maintain homeostasis, which necessarily demands tradeoffs in the use of metabolic energy. Evolutionarily, in response to environmentally forced energetic tradeoffs, populations adapt based on standing genetic variation in the ability of individual organisms to reallocate metabolic energy. Combined study of physiology and genetics, separating "Nature and Nurture," is, thus, the key to understanding the potential for evolutionary adaptation to future global change. To understand biological responses to global change, we need experimentally tractable model species that have the well-developed physiological, genetic, and genomic resources necessary for partitioning variance in the allocation of metabolic energy into its causal components. Model species allow for discovery and for experimental manipulation of relevant phenotypic contrasts and enable a systems-biology approach that integrates multiple levels of analyses to map genotypic-to-phenotypic variation. Here, we illustrate how combined physiological and genetic studies that focus on energy metabolism in developmental stages of a model marine organism contribute to an understanding of the potential to adapt to environmental change. This integrative research program provides insights that can be readily incorporated into individual-based ecological models of population persistence under global change. PMID:24907199

Applebaum, Scott L; Pan, T-C Francis; Hedgecock, Dennis; Manahan, Donal T

2014-07-01

366

Biomimetic design for climate change adaptation and mitigation  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article examines biomimicry, where organisms or ecosystems are mimicked in human design, as a means to either mitigate the causes of climate change that the built environment is responsible for, or adapt to the impacts of climate change. Different biomimetic approaches to design are discussed and categorized, and a series of examples illustrate the benefits and drawbacks of each

Maibritt Pedersen Zari

2010-01-01

367

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENTS  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper describes the regional climate change scenarios that are recommended for use in the U.S. Country Studies Program (CSP) and evaluates how well four general circulation models (GCMs) simulate current climate over Europe. Under the umbrella of the CSP, 50 countries with varying skills and experience in developing climate change scenarios are assessing vulnerability and adaptation. We considered the

Joel B. Smith; Gregory J. Pitts

1997-01-01

368

Canadian initiatives for adapting to climate change and extreme weather  

Microsoft Academic Search

While there are many programs and initiatives to mitigate and slow the accumulation of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, it is very evident that the climate will continue to change and the world will continue to experience increasingly severe weather conditions. Therefore programs and initiatives for adapting to a changing climate and extreme weather are equally important to mitigation

J. McConnach

2010-01-01

369

A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7-15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.

Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Howden, S. M.; Smith, D. R.; Chhetri, N.

2014-04-01

370

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2014-01-01

371

The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments  

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program?s (USGCRP?s) National Assessment of ...

372

Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the\\u000a Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts\\u000a on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region.\\u000a To date, most MENA

Jeannie Sowers; Avner Vengosh; Erika Weinthal

2011-01-01

373

National Hydroclimatic Change and Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment: Region-Specific Adaptation Factors  

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change, land use and socioeconomic developments are principal variables that define the need and scope of adaptive engineering and management to sustain water resource and infrastructure development. As described in IPCC (2007), hydroclimatic changes in the next 30-50 ye...

374

Adapting to Climate Change: An Adaptation Policy Assessment for the Canadian Forest Sector  

Microsoft Academic Search

Forests in Canada are likely to experience as severe impacts of climate change as forests in any other country worldwide. To begin planning for these impacts and to identify adaptation options, an assessment of vulnerability must be carried out. A vulnerability assessment is made up of three components: exposure, defined by the degree to which the climate will change; sensitivity,

Mark Johnston; Kelvin Hirsch; Peter Duinker; Tim Williamson; Shelley Webber

2009-01-01

375

Global error estimation based on the tolerance proportionality for some adaptive Runge-Kutta codes  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modern codes for the numerical solution of Initial Value Problems (IVPs) in ODEs are based in adaptive methods that, for a user supplied tolerance [delta], attempt to advance the integration selecting the size of each step so that some measure of the local error is [similar, equals][delta]. Although this policy does not ensure that the global errors are under the prescribed tolerance, after the early studies of Stetter [Considerations concerning a theory for ODE-solvers, in: R. Burlisch, R.D. Grigorieff, J. Schröder (Eds.), Numerical Treatment of Differential Equations, Proceedings of Oberwolfach, 1976, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, vol. 631, Springer, Berlin, 1978, pp. 188-200; Tolerance proportionality in ODE codes, in: R. März (Ed.), Proceedings of the Second Conference on Numerical Treatment of Ordinary Differential Equations, Humbold University, Berlin, 1980, pp. 109-123] and the extensions of Higham [Global error versus tolerance for explicit Runge-Kutta methods, IMA J. Numer. Anal. 11 (1991) 457-480; The tolerance proportionality of adaptive ODE solvers, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 45 (1993) 227-236; The reliability of standard local error control algorithms for initial value ordinary differential equations, in: Proceedings: The Quality of Numerical Software: Assessment and Enhancement, IFIP Series, Springer, Berlin, 1997], it has been proved that in many existing explicit Runge-Kutta codes the global errors behave asymptotically as some rational power of [delta]. This step-size policy, for a given IVP, determines at each grid point tn a new step-size hn+1=h(tn;[delta]) so that h(t;[delta]) is a continuous function of t. In this paper a study of the tolerance proportionality property under a discontinuous step-size policy that does not allow to change the size of the step if the step-size ratio between two consecutive steps is close to unity is carried out. This theory is applied to obtain global error estimations in a few problems that have been solved with the code Gauss2 [S. Gonzalez-Pinto, R. Rojas-Bello, Gauss2, a Fortran 90 code for second order initial value problems, ], based on an adaptive two stage Runge-Kutta-Gauss method with this discontinuous step-size policy.

Calvo, M.; González-Pinto, S.; Montijano, J. I.

2008-09-01

376

Adapting to Change: The Value of Change Information and Meaning-Making  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The purpose of this 3-wave study is to examine the micro process of how employees adapt to change over time. We combined Conservation of Resources theory with insights from the organizational change literature to study employees in a Dutch police district undergoing reorganization. A model was tested where employee adaptability, operationalized by…

van den Heuvel, Machteld; Demerouti, Evangelia; Bakker, Arnold B.; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.

2013-01-01

377

Toward global baselines and monitoring of forest cover for REDD: the Global Forest Cover Change project  

Microsoft Academic Search

Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) procedures in support of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) require the establishment of historical baselines of forest cover and changes, as well as consistent monitoring of subsequent forest gains and losses over time. Under the NASA MEaSUREs program, the Global Forest Cover Change project is using the USGS Global Land Survey (GLS)

J. O. Sexton; C. Huang; J. G. Masek; M. Feng; R. Narasimhan; E. F. Vermote; M. C. Hansen; R. E. Wolfe; S. Channan; J. R. Townshend

2010-01-01

378

Synthetic circuit for exact adaptation and fold-change detection  

PubMed Central

Biological organisms use their sensory systems to detect changes in their environment. The ability of sensory systems to adapt to static inputs allows wide dynamic range as well as sensitivity to input changes including fold-change detection, a response that depends only on fold changes in input, and not on absolute changes. This input scale invariance underlies an important strategy for search that depends solely on the spatial profile of the input. Synthetic efforts to reproduce the architecture and response of cellular circuits provide an important step to foster understanding at the molecular level. We report the bottom-up assembly of biochemical systems that show exact adaptation and fold-change detection. Using a malachite green aptamer as the output, a synthetic transcriptional circuit with the connectivity of an incoherent feed-forward loop motif exhibits pulse generation and exact adaptation. A simple mathematical model was used to assess the amplitude and duration of pulse response as well as the parameter regimes required for fold-change detection. Upon parameter tuning, this synthetic circuit exhibits fold-change detection for four successive rounds of two-fold input changes. The experimental realization of fold-change detection circuit highlights the programmability of transcriptional switches and the ability to obtain predictive dynamical systems in a cell-free environment for technological applications.

Kim, Jongmin; Khetarpal, Ishan; Murray, Richard M.

2014-01-01

379

Synthetic circuit for exact adaptation and fold-change detection.  

PubMed

Biological organisms use their sensory systems to detect changes in their environment. The ability of sensory systems to adapt to static inputs allows wide dynamic range as well as sensitivity to input changes including fold-change detection, a response that depends only on fold changes in input, and not on absolute changes. This input scale invariance underlies an important strategy for search that depends solely on the spatial profile of the input. Synthetic efforts to reproduce the architecture and response of cellular circuits provide an important step to foster understanding at the molecular level. We report the bottom-up assembly of biochemical systems that show exact adaptation and fold-change detection. Using a malachite green aptamer as the output, a synthetic transcriptional circuit with the connectivity of an incoherent feed-forward loop motif exhibits pulse generation and exact adaptation. A simple mathematical model was used to assess the amplitude and duration of pulse response as well as the parameter regimes required for fold-change detection. Upon parameter tuning, this synthetic circuit exhibits fold-change detection for four successive rounds of two-fold input changes. The experimental realization of fold-change detection circuit highlights the programmability of transcriptional switches and the ability to obtain predictive dynamical systems in a cell-free environment for technological applications. PMID:24728988

Kim, Jongmin; Khetarpal, Ishan; Sen, Shaunak; Murray, Richard M

2014-01-01

380

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview  

Microsoft Academic Search

This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in

T. R. Karl

2009-01-01

381

Climate change and the global harvest  

Microsoft Academic Search

This book summarizes state-of-the-art knowledge on the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. The book begins by introducing the nonspecialist to the causes of climate change, and reviews the main climate change drivers and impacts. It then goes on to review all major aspects of climate change impact on agriculture in detail. The scope is very broad indeed--the authors

Cynthia Rosenzweig; Daniel Hillel

1998-01-01

382

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

2010-05-01

383

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

384

Global climate change crosses state boundaries  

Microsoft Academic Search

The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A

1996-01-01

385

Adaptive web caching: towards a new global caching architecture  

Microsoft Academic Search

An adaptive, highly scalable, and robust web caching system is needed to effectively handle the exponential growth and extreme dynamic environment of the World Wide Web. Our work presented last year sketched out the basic design of such a system. This sequel paper reports our progress over the past year. To assist caches making web query forwarding decisions, we sketch

B. Scott Michel; Khoi Nguyen; Adam Rosenstein; Lixia Zhang; Sally Floyd; Van Jacobson

1998-01-01

386

Literature Review: Transportation Adaptation in Response to Climate Change.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Scientific evidence on climate change and the potential for serious global impact is now stronger than ever (Stern, 2006). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a statement in the Fourth Assessment Report that there is a ninety-per...

M. Oswald

2009-01-01

387

European network infrastructures of observatories for terrestrial Global Change research  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The earth's climate is significantly changing (e.g. IPCC, 2007) and thus directly affecting the terrestrial systems. The number and intensity hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, are continually increasing, resulting in major economical and social impacts. Furthermore, the land cover in Europe has been modified fundamentally by conversions for agriculture, forest and for other purposes such as industrialisation and urbanisation. Additionally, water resources are more than ever used for human development, especially as a key resource for agricultural and industrial activities. As a special case, the mountains of the world are of significant importance in terms of water resources supply, biodiversity, economy, agriculture, traffic and recreation but particularly vulnerable to environmental change. The Alps are unique because of the pronounced small scale variability they contain, the high population density they support and their central position in Europe. The Alps build a single coherent physical and natural environment, artificially cut by national borders. The scientific community and governmental bodies have responded to these environmental changes by performing dedicated experiments and by establishing environmental research networks to monitor, analyse and predict the impact of Global Change on different terrestrial systems of the Earths' environment. Several European network infrastructures for terrestrial Global Change research are presently immerging or upgrading, such as ICOS, ANAEE, LifeWatch or LTER-Europe. However, the strongest existing networks are still operating on a regional or national level and the historical growth of such networks resulted in a very heterogeneous landscape of observation networks. We propose therefore the establishment of two complementary networks: The NetwOrk of Hydrological observAtories, NOHA. NOHA aims to promote the sustainable management of water resources in Europe, to support the prediction of hydrological system changes, and to develop and implement tools and technologies for monitoring, prevention and mitigation of environmental risks and pressures. In addition, NOHA will provide long-term statistical series of hydrological state variables and fluxes for the analysis and prognosis of Global Change consequences using integrated model systems. These data will support the development and establishment of efficient prevention, mitigation and adaptation strategies (E.g. EU-Water Framework Directive) and spur the development and validation of hydrological theories and models. The second network, ALPS, - the Alpine Observing System - will create an unique infrastructure for environmental and climate research and observation for the whole Alpine region, providing a common platform for the benefit of the society in Europe as a whole. The initiative will build on existing infrastructure in the participating countries and on new and emerging technology, allowing an unprecedented coverage of observation systems at affordable cost. ALPS will create a new collaboration between scientists, engineers, monitoring agencies, public and decision makers, with the aim to gain an integrated understanding of complex environmental systems. The ALPS effort will be structured along three major axes: (i) harmonize and strengthen the backbone of permanent measurement infrastructures and complement these with dense deployments of intelligent networks, to improve the recording of environmental parameters overcoming disciplinary and national borders, (ii) link the main data centres to create a distributed cyber-infrastructure with the final aim to enable effective data access and retrieval to all science and society users, and (iii) invest in data assimilation and exploitation toward scientific and practical results in particular with respect to dealing with extreme events and natural hazards. In this presentation, we will focus on the motivation, the concept and the scientific and organizational challenges of ALPS and NOHA.

Vereecken, H.; Bogena, H.; Lehning, M.

2009-04-01

388

Global Climate Change: Resources for Environmental Literacy  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Most scientists believe that Earth's climate is changing and in fact heating up. However, they don't all agree about the rate of change, the extent of the impact on our environment, or what can or should be done about it. This module is based on the premise that understanding what influences Earth's energy balance is necessary (though not sufficient) to make sound decisions about climate change. Among the key concepts: how weather and climate relate to transfer of energy in and out of Earth's atmosphere, and how human activities have changed Earth's land, oceans, and atmosphere.

Council, Environmental L.; National Science Teachers Association (NSTA)

2007-05-16

389

Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research  

PubMed Central

Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology.

Smith, Pete; Albanito, Fabrizio; Bell, Madeleine; Bellarby, Jessica; Blagodatskiy, Sergey; Datta, Arindam; Dondini, Marta; Fitton, Nuala; Flynn, Helen; Hastings, Astley; Hillier, Jon; Jones, Edward O.; Kuhnert, Matthias; Nayak, Dali R.; Pogson, Mark; Richards, Mark; Sozanska-Stanton, Gosia; Wang, Shifeng; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B.; Bottoms, Emily; Brown, Chris; Farmer, Jenny; Feliciano, Diana; Hao, Cui; Robertson, Andy; Vetter, Sylvia; Wong, Hon Man; Smith, Jo

2012-01-01

390

A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation  

PubMed Central

This article presents a systematic framework to identify barriers that may impede the process of adaptation to climate change. The framework targets the process of planned adaptation and focuses on potentially challenging but malleable barriers. Three key sets of components create the architecture for the framework. First, a staged depiction of an idealized, rational approach to adaptation decision-making makes up the process component. Second, a set of interconnected structural elements includes the actors, the larger context in which they function (e.g., governance), and the object on which they act (the system of concern that is exposed to climate change). At each of these stages, we ask (i) what could impede the adaptation process and (ii) how do the actors, context, and system of concern contribute to the barrier. To facilitate the identification of barriers, we provide a series of diagnostic questions. Third, the framework is completed by a simple matrix to help locate points of intervention to overcome a given barrier. It provides a systematic starting point for answering critical questions about how to support climate change adaptation at all levels of decision-making.

Moser, Susanne C.; Ekstrom, Julia A.

2010-01-01

391

Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report  

SciTech Connect

This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

Hanson, H.P.

1996-10-01

392

Latin America in a Changing Global Environment  

Microsoft Academic Search

Latin America's insertion in the world trade system is entering a period of historical change. Driving that change will be the outcome, or failure, of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations; the increasing regionalisation of trade relations; and the profound liberalisation in Latin America of national trade regimes, which is also leading to a strong revival in the region

Winston Fritsch

1992-01-01

393

35 Research on global changes in Pakistan  

Microsoft Academic Search

The research on climate change in Pakistan is in its initial stages and has started with the commencement of the new century. Realizing the importance and potential impact of climate change on natural resources and population and their sustainable development, several projects have been initiated in collaboration with international institutions such as APN, ICIMOD, UNEP, START, and others. The focus

Rakhshan Roohi

2007-01-01

394

Stochastic contributions to global temperature changes.  

PubMed

Records of the mean annual global surface temperatures from 1850 to 1970 show annual temperatures that are correlated with temperatures of the previous years as a one-dimensional random walk with a limiting feedback. This description accounts for the variation in those temperatures observed until the present by assuming that the base temperature is proportional to the increase in carbon dioxide concentration over the level in 1890. Climate models that better fit the observed variations are shown to be statistically improbable and thus likely to be artifacts. PMID:18518079

Adair, Robert K

2008-04-11

395

An adaptive MHD method for global space weather simulations  

Microsoft Academic Search

A 3D parallel adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) scheme is described for solving the partial-differential equations governing ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flows. This new algorithm adopts a cell-centered upwind finite-volume discretization procedure and uses limited solution reconstruction, approximate Riemann solvers, and explicit multi-stage time stepping to solve the MHD equations in divergence form, providing a combination of high solution accuracy and computational

Darren L. De Zeeuw; Tamas I. Gombosi; Clinto P. T. Groth; Kenneth G. Powell; Quentin F. Stout

2000-01-01

396

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster.

Mark Pelling; Juha I. Uitto

2001-01-01

397

Nitrogen Deposition: A Component of Global Change Analyses  

Microsoft Academic Search

The global cycles of carbon and nitrogen are being perturbed by human activities that increase the transfer from large pools of nonreactive forms of the elements to reactive forms that are essential to the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere. The cycles are closely linked at all scales, and global change analyses must consider carbon and nitrogen cycles together. The increasing

Norby; Richard J

1997-01-01

398

Coastal wetlands and global change: overview  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The potential impacts of climate change are of great practical concern to those interested in coastal wetland resources. Among the areas of greatest risk in the United States are low-lying coastal habitats with easily eroded substrates which occur along the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast Atlantic coasts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have identified coastal wetlands as ecosystems most vulnerable to direct, large-scale impacts of climate change, primarily because of their sensitivity to increases in sea-level rise.

Guntenspergen, G. R.; Vairin, B.; Burkett, V. R.

1997-01-01

399

Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article examines farmers’ livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic

Jouni Paavola

2008-01-01

400

Product design adaptable to changes of life cycle  

Microsoft Academic Search

The paper discusses a possibility of maximizing the durability of a products' aesthetic image to adapt the changes of product life cycle. A new methodology of industrial design, taking time factor into consideration is proposed for providing durability. Two examples of newly developed products utilizing this method on new materials are illustrated

F. Masuda

1999-01-01

401

Adapting the Transtheoretical Model of Change to the Bereavement Process  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theorists currently believe that bereaved people undergo some transformation of self rather than returning to their original state. To advance our understanding of this process, this article presents an adaptation of Prochaska and DiClemente's transtheoretical model of change as it could be applied to the journey that bereaved individuals…

Calderwood, Kimberly A.

2011-01-01

402

Animal husbandry in Africa: Climate change impacts and adaptations  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper uses a cross-sectional approach to analyze the impacts of climate change on animal husbandry and the way farmers adapt. The study is based on surveys of almost 5000 livestock farmers across ten countries in Africa. A traditional Ricardian regression finds that the livestock net revenues of large farms in Africa are more sensitive to temperature than those of

S. Niggol Seo; Robert Mendelsohn

2008-01-01

403

Adaptive information filtering: detecting changes in text streams  

Microsoft Academic Search

The task of information filtering is to classify documents from a stream as either relevant or non-relevant according to a particular user interest with the objective to reduce information load. When using an information filter in an environment that is changing with time, methods for adapting the filter should be considered in order to retain classification accuracy. We favor a

Carsten Lanquillon; Ingrid Renz

1999-01-01

404

Human neuromuscular adaptations that accompany changes in activity.  

PubMed

Neuromuscular adaptations probably occur at all levels of the motor pathway, following changes in muscular activity. Adaptations have been mostly investigated in muscle fibers after heavy-resistance and endurance training. In strength training the rapid improvement is due to poorly understood neural factors, with muscle fiber hypertrophy occurring rather later; fiber hyperplasia is probably unimportant. In contrast to other mammals, muscle fibers in humans do not readily change from "slow" to "fast" and vice versa, although there may be a period of plasticity in infancy especially responsive to weightbearing. A proportion of the changes in the fibers, following training, is probably brought about by stretch-activated mechanisms, in which second messengers express immediate early genes and the latter, in turn, promote the transcription of "muscle" genes; other cellular adaptations occur at the level of mRNA translation. In the spinal cord, adaptations following hemiparesis include a loss of functioning motor units. Impaired motor drive occurs not only in organic brain lesions but also after periods of disuse. In persons with amputations, the peripheral nerve stump undergoes degenerative changes; somatosensory cortical evoked responses, following stimulation of the stump, are diminished. It is possible that both sensory and motor cortical representations are increased for neighboring regions of the body. PMID:7869885

McComas, A J

1994-12-01

405

Portfolio Screening for Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change  

Microsoft Academic Search

The need to mainstream climate change adaptation into development assistance is increasingly recognised, yet most bilateral and multilateral development agencies are only just starting to take an interest. Over the past five years a few development agencies have screened their project port- folios, generally with two goals in mind: (i) to ascertain the extent to which existing development projects already

Siri E. H. Eriksen; Lars Otto Næss; Richard J. T. Klein; Anne Hammill; Carmenza Robledo; Karen L. O'Brien

406

Robust adaptation assessment – climate change and water supply  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – This paper aims to develop a framework to assist the identification of robust adaptation options that account for uncertainty in future climate change impacts for the water sector. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The water evaluation and planning (WEAP) tool, is to identify future water resource vulnerability in the Glore sub-catchment within the Moy catchment in the West of Ireland. Where

Julia Hall; Conor Murphy

2011-01-01

407

Implementing urban participatory climate change adaptation appraisals: a methodological guideline  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper provides conceptual and methodological guidelines for researchers seeking to undertake an urban participatory climate change adaptation appraisal (PCCAA), illustrated with examples from appraisals in Mombasa (Kenya) and Estelí (Nicaragua). It highlights the importance of hearing local people’s voices regarding incrementally worsening and often unrecorded severe weather. The conceptual framework distinguishes between the analysis of asset vulnerability and the

Caroline Moser; Alfredo Stein

2011-01-01

408

How will global climate change affect parasite–host assemblages?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Parasites are integral components of the biosphere. Host switching correlated with events of episodic climate change is ubiquitous in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological pertur- bations, which cause geographical and phenological shifts, and alteration in the dynamics of parasite trans- mission, increasing the potential for host switching. The intersection of climate change with evolutionary con- servative

Daniel R. Brooks; Eric P. Hoberg

2007-01-01

409

Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

2012-01-01

410

Managing Model Adaptation by Precise Detection of Metamodel Changes  

Microsoft Academic Search

Technological and business changes influence the evolution of software systems. When this happens, the software artifacts\\u000a may need to be adapted to the changes. This need is rapidly increasing in systems built using the Model-Driven Engineering\\u000a (MDE) paradigm. An MDE system basically consists of metamodels, terminal models, and transformations. The evolution of a metamodel\\u000a may render its related terminal models

Kelly Garcés; Frédéric Jouault; Pierre Cointe; Jean Bézivin

2009-01-01

411

InterTemporal Investment in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Currently, different dimensions of mitigation strategies have been investigated in policy analysis. However, ambitious mitigation action aiming at reducing future climate change will not prevent much climate change before mid-century. Short-term and medium-term temperature as well as associated damages cannot be avoided completely. Increasingly there appears to be recognition of the need to simultaneously implement adaptation and mitigation. However, the

Weiwei Wang; Bruce A. McCarl

2011-01-01

412

South Australian farmers' concerns and adaptation options for climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper reports some of the suggested adaptations to climate change from about 500 primary producers in South Australia during a series of thirty-five climate risk workshops held from 2006 to 2008. Not surprisingly, many of the impacts that primary producers were concerned about from the early stages of climate change were similar to climate risks associated with year-to-year variability.

Melissa Rebbeck; Trudi Duffield

413

Global lightning activity and climate change. Ph.D. Thesis  

SciTech Connect

The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCM`s) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. The first chapter introduces a simple parameterization used to simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. The second chapter deals with a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0 C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. The third chapter deals with the modelling of lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. This chapter presents results from the model`s control run. The fourth chapter presents two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9 C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (4.2 C global warming). The results imply a 24% / 30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The fifth chapter considers the possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming. The results show that the earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could possibly supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The sixth and final chapter looks at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires.

Price, C.G.

1993-01-01

414

NEXRAD PRECIPITATION INFORMATION APPLICATION FORUM: CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation reflects ongoing climate and global change research at one laboratory of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Laboratory. t should not be considered comprehensive, but represents my immediately perceived applicati...

415

Examining Long-Term Global Climate Change on the Web.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Describes a web-based, inquiry-oriented activity that enables students to examine long-term global climate change. Supports instruction in other topics such as population growth. (Contains 34 references.) (DDR)

Huntoon, Jacqueline E.; Ridky, Robert K.

2002-01-01

416

Trends `93: A compendium of data on global change  

SciTech Connect

This article presents provides synopses of frequently used global change data. Discussions of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Atmospheric Methane, other trace gases and atmospheric aerosols, carbon dioxide emissions, temperature; and precipitation are all included. 6 figs.

Boden, T.A.; Kaiser, D.P.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

1994-12-31

417

Trends `93: A compendium of data on global change  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article presents provides synopses of frequently used global change data. Discussions of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Atmospheric Methane, other trace gases and atmospheric aerosols, carbon dioxide emissions, temperature; and precipitation are all included. 6 figs.

T. A. Boden; D. P. Kaiser; R. J. Sepanski; F. W. Stoss; G. M. Logsdon

1994-01-01

418

The National Global Change Research Plan: 2012-2021  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Released in April 2012, the National Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021 serves as the guiding document of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) for the next ten years. The plan is built around four broad strategic goals: advance science, inform decisions, conduct sustained assessments, and communicate and educate. The plan builds on the program's basic strengths in integrated observations, modeling, and information services for sciences that serve societal needs. The publication of this document fulfills one aspect of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 which says that the USGCRP will "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change." Visitors looking for a brief overview of the plan can also click on the fact sheet, which offers a nice overview of this lengthy document.

2012-01-01

419

A SUMMARY OF NHEERL ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE  

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this document is to review ecological research conducted by scientists at the National Health and Environmental Research Laboratory (NHEERL) under the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) contribution to the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The inten...

420

Global Food Demand Patterns Over Changing Levels of Economic Development.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Global food demand is analyzed for three U.S. export commodity groups: coarse grains, wheat and rice, and meat. The analysis provides insight into potential export markets by anticipating changes in countries' food demand as economic development proceeds....

S. M. Marks M. J. Yetley

1987-01-01

421

Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Many decisions concerning long-lived investments need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) introducing long-term prospective exercises; (ii) selecting "no-regret" strategies; (iii) favouring reversible options; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies; (v) reducing decision time horizons. I argue that adaptation strategies should not be assessed in an isolated context. In particular, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities, and possible changes in future energy costs.

Hallegatte, S.

2008-05-01

422

Global change and the dynamics of ecological systems: Cretaceous through Oligocene naticid gastropods and their prey  

SciTech Connect

Most studies of global change, particularly events that produced mass extinctions, document extinction and survivorship within taxonomic groups or trophic levels. Studies that consider effects of such events on ecological systems are less common. Global events nevertheless affect interaction of species; to predict the consequences of future global change, one must consider interactions within ecological systems. Vermeij has suggested that escalation involving adaptation to enemies has been a major theme of Phanerozoic life, but that such escalation has proceeded at highly variable rates depending on extrinsic events. He has predicted that escalation should be fostered by climatic warming, marine transgression, and high primary productivity. Mass extinctions involving global cooling, regression, or reduction in productivity should temporarily halt escalation, but rapid rebound may occur because post-crisis assemblages provide the raw material for escalation. A comprehensive survey (40,000 specimens) of naticid gastropod predation in the Coastal Plain Cretaceous through Oligocene supports this hypothesis. Drilling frequencies dropped at the K/T and E/O boundaries, which were marked by decreases in productivity and/or cooling. Drilling recovered very rapidly after these events, and in the Paleocene far exceeded Cretaceous drilling, reaching modern levels. This suggests the K/T extinction produced a major reorganization of the ecosystem. Other indicators of escalation (frequency of incomplete and multiple drillholes), however, do not correspond as neatly to global change. Nevertheless, results suggest that global change may be a major determinant of long-term evolutionary patterns, such as escalation.

Kelley, P.H. (Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geological Engineering); Hansen, T.A. (Western Washington Univ., Bellingham, WA (United States). Dept. of Geology)

1993-03-01

423

Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts

Jeremy Schlickenrieder; Sonia Quiroga; Agustin Diz; Ana Iglesias

2011-01-01

424

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #24: PUBLICATION OF FY2001 EDITION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET"  

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY2001 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the President's National Science and Technolog...

425

The missing data on global climate change  

Microsoft Academic Search

Much of the data we need to characterize changes in the Earth's climate are being acquired by operational satellites and ground stations. Additional parameters need to be measured. The necessary data-gathering instruments are to be included in the Earth Observing Systems, a set of large polar-orbiting platforms to be launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration by the end

J. Hansen; W. Rossow; I. Fung

1990-01-01

426

Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.  

PubMed

Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping. PMID:18262823

Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

2008-02-01

427

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change  

PubMed Central

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C.; Lavergne, Sebastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M. J.

2013-01-01

428

Global, long-term Earth Science Data Records of forest cover, change, and fragmentation from Landsat: the Global Forest Cover Change Project  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monitoring, analysis, and management of forests require measurements of forest cover that are both spatio-temporally consistent and resolved globally at sub-hectare resolution. The Global Forest Cover Change project, a cooperation between the University of Maryland Global Land Cover Facility and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, is providing the first long-term, sub-hectare, globally consistent data records of forest cover, change, and fragmentation in circa-1975, -1990, -2000, and -2005 epochs. These data are derived from the Global Land Survey collection of Landsat images in the respective epochs, atmospherically corrected to surface reflectance in 1990, 2000, and 2005 using the Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) implementation of the 6S radiative transfer algorithm, with ancillary information from MODIS Land products, ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM), and climatological data layers. Forest cover and change were estimated by a novel continuous-field approach, which produced for the 2000 and 2005 epochs the world's first global, 30-m resolution database of tree cover. Surface reflectance estimates were validated against coincident MODIS measurements, the results of which have been corroborated by subsequent, independent validations against measurements from AERONET sites. Uncertainties in tree- and forest-cover values were estimated in each pixel as a compounding of within-sample uncertainty and accuracy relative to a sample of independent measurements from small-footprint lidar. Accuracy of forest cover and change estimates was further validated relative to expert-interpreted high-resolution imagery, from which unbiased estimates of forest cover and change have been produced at national and eco-regional scales. These first-of-kind Earth Science Data Records--surface reflectance in 1990, 2000, and 2005 and forest cover, change, and fragmentation in and between 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005--are hosted at native, Landsat resolution for free public access at the Global Land Cover Facility website (www.landcover.org). Global mosaic of circa-2000, Landsat-based estimates of tree cover. Gaps due to clouds and/or snow in each scene were filled first with Landsat-based data from overlapping paths, and the remaining gaps were filled with data from the MODIS VCF Tree Cover layer in 2000.

Sexton, J.; Huang, C.; Channan, S.; Feng, M.; Song, X.; Kim, D.; Song, D.; Vermote, E.; Masek, J.; Townshend, J. R.

2013-12-01

429

Changes in corticospinal excitability following adaptive modification to human walking.  

PubMed

Locomotor adaptations to a novel environment can be measured through changes in muscle activity patterns and lower limb kinematics. The location and mechanisms underlying these adaptive changes are unknown. The purposes of the current study were (1) to determine whether corticospinal tract (CST) excitability is altered by resisted walking and (2) to ascertain whether changes in cortical excitability are muscle specific. Forty healthy participants walked with a robotic gait device (Lokomat) that applied a velocity-dependent resistance against hip and knee movements during walking. CST excitability was assessed by quantifying motor evoked potentials (MEPs) elicited by transcranial magnetic stimulation immediately before and after baseline and resisted walking. MEPs were measured in either the biceps femoris (BF) or the rectus femoris (RF). Recruitment curves were collected by stimulating in 5 % increments from 105 to 145 % of active motor threshold. Results demonstrated a significant increase in MEP amplitude in the BF following baseline walking in the Lokomat. The RF did not demonstrate these changes. There was no further change in MEP size following resisted walking in either muscle group. These results suggest that locomotion increases CST excitability in a muscle-specific fashion. As such, it may be important for determining how to enhance the central nervous system's ability to integrate adaptive strategies during walking. PMID:23494384

Zabukovec, J R; Boyd, L A; Linsdell, M A; Lam, T

2013-05-01

430

Global Climate Change and Ocean Education  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in the Earth's climate system. The problem is not simply that the public lacks information. In fact, the problem is often that there is too much information available with much of it complicated and even contradictory. The news media, both print and electronic, tend to exacerbate this by aiming for "balance" even when there is an overwhelming scientific or policy consensus. An additional problem is "reinforcement bias," which tends to lead people to focus on information that supports what they already believe or think they know. Instead, we need an approach that facilitates "meaning-making." A "framing" approach to communication (Frameworks Institute, 2010) supports meaning-making by appealing to strongly held values, providing metaphoric language and models, and illustrating specific applications to real world problems. This approach translates complex science in a way that allows people to examine evidence, make well-informed decisions, and embrace science-based solutions. However, interpreters need specialized training, resources, up-to-date information, and ongoing support to help understand a complex topic such as climate change, its connections to the ocean, and how to relate it to the live animals, habitats and exhibits they interpret.

Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

2011-12-01

431

Exploring Local Approaches to Communicating Global Climate Change Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Expected future climate changes are often presented as a global problem, requiring a global solution. Although this statement is accurate, communicating climate change science and prospective solutions must begin at local levels, each with its own subset of complexities to be addressed. Scientific evaluation of local changes can be complicated by large variability occurring over small spatial scales; this variability hinders efforts both to analyze past local changes and to project future ones. The situation is further encumbered by challenges associated with scientific literacy in the U.S., as well as by pressing economic difficulties. For people facing real-life financial and other uncertainties, a projected ``1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius'' rise in global temperature is likely to remain only an abstract concept. Despite this lack of concreteness, recent surveys have found that most U.S. residents believe current global warming science, and an even greater number view the prospect of increased warming as at least a ``somewhat serious'' problem. People will often be able to speak of long-term climate changes in their area, whether observed changes in the amount of snow cover in winter, or in the duration of extreme heat periods in summer. This work will explore the benefits and difficulties of communicating climate change from a local, rather than global, perspective, and seek out possible strategies for making less abstract, more concrete, and most importantly, more understandable information available to the public.

Stevermer, A. J.

2002-12-01

432

Adaptation and change detection with a sequential Monte Carlo scheme.  

PubMed

Given the sequential data from an unknown target system with changing parameters, the first part of this paper discusses online algorithms that adapt to smooth as well as abrupt changes. This paper examines four different parameter/ hyperparameter dynamics for online learning and compares their performance within an online Bayesian learning framework. Using the dynamics that performed best in the first part, the second part of this paper attempts to perform change detection in unknown systems in terms of the time dependence of the marginal likelihood. Because of the sequential nature of the algorithms, a sequential Monte Carlo scheme (particle filter) is a natural means for implementation. PMID:17550114

Matsumoto, Takashi; Yosui, Kuniaki

2007-06-01

433

Creating a New Model for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation for Critical Infrastructure: The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NYC Panel on Climate Change  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, launched in August 2008, aims to secure the city's critical infrastructure against rising seas, higher temperatures and fluctuating water supplies projected to result from climate change. The Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is part of PlaNYC, the city's long- term sustainability plan, and is composed of over 30 city and state agencies, public authorities and companies that operate the region's roads, bridges, tunnels, mass transit, and water, sewer, energy and telecommunications systems - all with critical infrastructure identified as vulnerable. It is one of the most comprehensive adaptation efforts yet launched by an urban region. To guide the effort, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts on the panel include climatologists, sea-level rise specialists, adaptation experts, and engineers, as well as representatives from the insurance and legal sectors. The NPCC is developing planning tools for use by the Task Force members that provide information about climate risks, adaptation and risk assessment, prioritization frameworks, and climate protection levels. The advisory panel is supplying climate change projections, helping to identify at- risk infrastructure, and assisting the Task Force in developing adaptation strategies and guidelines for design of new structures. The NPCC will also publish an assessment report in 2009 that will serve as the foundation for climate change adaptation in the New York City region, similar to the IPCC reports. Issues that the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NPCC are addressing include decision- making under climate change uncertainty, effective ways for expert knowledge to be incorporated into public actions, and strategies for maintaining consistent and effective attention to long-term climate change even as municipal governments cycle through their administrations.

Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W. D.; Freed, A. M.

2008-12-01

434

China's National Assessment Report on Climate Change (II): Climate change impacts and adaptation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the

Lin Erda; Xu Yinlong; Wu Shaohong; Ju Hui; Ma Shiming

435

Adaptive capacity for climate change in Canadian rural communities  

Microsoft Academic Search

It is widely acknowledged that promoting the long-term sustainability of rural areas requires an assessment of their capacity to handle stress from a host of external and internal factors such as resource depletion, global trading agreements, service reductions and changing demographics, to name but some. The sustainability literature includes a number of approaches for conducting capacity evaluations but is sparse

Ellen Wall; Katia Marzall

2006-01-01

436

Global Climate Change : The Ross Ice Shelf  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This video lecture explores the effects of climate change on the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Slides depict how a large iceberg fell off the Ross Ice Shelf in March 2000. The lecturer describes his expedition to the ice shelf shortly after this event. He describes dives conducted to observe the underwater ecosystems containing krill and jellyfish, and the ocean currents around the icebergs. Facts about the icebergs in Antarctica are presented, and the sensitivity of polar regions to climate is explained. The video is 14 minutes in length.

2007-12-12

437

Global Climate Change Research Explorer: Biosphere  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Take a first-hand look at how climate change affects the biosphere at this Web site from San Francisco's Exploratorium. Visitors can access long-term, short-term, and even near real time data from a number of research projects conducted by various institutions. All data are presented graphically, with straightforward explanations of phenomena in question. Science educators may find this Web site useful in that it conveys the sense of "how researchers gather evidence, test theories, and come to conclusions." A helpful glossary and a number of useful related links are included.

2002-01-01

438

Remote sensing and global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This book, based on lectures from the Dundee Summer Schools in Remote Sensing in 1992, focuses on aspects of remote sensing related to climatic change. The organization of the book focuses on particular parts of the climate system and then discusses the different satellite systems relevant to their measurement. The following subject areas are included in the book: background information about the climate system and remote sensing; atmospheric applications in both lower and upper atmosphere; land surface including snow and ice, altimetry in Antarctica, land surface energy budget and albedo; marine science; ecological monitoring in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Vaughan, A.; Cracknell, A.P. [eds.

1994-12-31

439

The missing data on global climate change  

SciTech Connect

Much of the data we need to characterize changes in the Earth's climate are being acquired by operational satellites and ground stations. Additional parameters need to be measured. The necessary data-gathering instruments are to be included in the Earth Observing Systems, a set of large polar-orbiting platforms to be launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration by the end of this decade. Any analysis of climate must take into account climate forcings (anthropogenic or externally imposed changes), climate feedbacks which can be either positive or negative, and climate diagnostics. Existing and proposed sources for acquiring the data are listed in Table 1. A system utilizing three instruments on two satellites is proposed. These small satellites would complement the large polar platforms and speed up the acquisition of data. The three proposed instruments would include an upper atmosphere aerosol and gas monitor, atropospheric aerosol and cloud monitor, and an earth radiation budget monitor at the top of the atmosphere. Preliminary cost estimates and advantages of this system are given.

Hansen, J.; Rossow, W.; Fung, I. (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (USA))

1990-01-01

440

Global Load Balancing with Parallel Mesh Adaption on Distributed-Memory Systems  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dynamic mesh adaption on unstructured grids is a powerful tool for efficiently computing unsteady problems to resolve solution features of interest. Unfortunately, this causes load imbalance among processors on a parallel machine. This paper describes the parallel implementation of a tetrahedral mesh adaption scheme and a new global load balancing method. A heuristic remapping algorithm is presented that assigns partitions to processors such that the redistribution cost is minimized. Results indicate that the parallel performance of the mesh adaption code depends on the nature of the adaption region and show a 35.5X speedup on 64 processors of an SP2 when 35% of the mesh is randomly adapted. For large-scale scientific computations, our load balancing strategy gives almost a sixfold reduction in solver execution times over non-balanced loads. Furthermore, our heuristic remapper yields processor assignments that are less than 3% off the optimal solutions but requires only 1% of the computational time.

Biswas, Rupak; Oliker, Leonid; Sohn, Andrew

1996-01-01